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u.

LIBRARY
DEC 2 6 1979

Week ending: December 28, 1977
The monetary base, the prime determinant of the growth
of the money stock, increased 8.7 percent over the past year,
while the narrowly defined money stock (Ml) increased 7.3 percent
and the more broadly defined money stock (M2) increased 9 percent.
The monetary base grew more rapidly during the second half of the
year (at a 9.8 percent annual rate) than during the first half of
the year (at a 7.7 percent rate). The pattern of Ml growth
during the year followed the growth of the base, rising at a 6.5
percent annual rate during the first six months of the year, and
at a faster 8.2 percent rate during the most recent six months.
In contrast, M2 grew at a slightly slower rate in the second half
of the year than in the first half.
The varying growth rates of the components of Ml and M2
indicate how each contributed to the different pattern of M2
growth relative to Ml. A reduced growth of net time deposits (a
component of M2 but not of Ml) during the last six months
overwhelmed the accelerated growth of both demand deposits and
currency, resulting in the slower rate of growth of M2. An
important factor affecting the growth of net time deposits was the
differential between the maximum rates of interest which banks are
allowed by statute to pay on these deposits and the market rates
of interest on alternative securities. As market rates of
interest rise toward these ceiling rates, the incentive for
individuals to hold time deposits is weakened. Short-term market
interest rates rose during most of 1977, and by the fourth quarter
were very close to the ceiling levels on time deposits.
While short-term interest rates are currently 190 to 215
basis points higher than they were at the end of 1976, long-term
interest rates have not changed as much. The yield on corporate
Aaa bonds is currently 31 basis points higher than a year ago,
while an average of yields on long-term Treasury securities (10
years and over) is currently 68 basis points higher than a year
ago. In contrast, the average yield on municipal bonds is
currently 38 basis points lower than a year ago. With short-term
rates rising more rapidly than long-term rates, the yield curve
has flattened during 1977.
Growth Rates of Monetary Aggregates
(Compound Annual Rates)
Average of
Four Weeks
Ending
12/22/76 12/21/77
12/22/76 6/22/77
6/22/77 12/21/77


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Base

Ml

M2

Demand
Deposits

Net Time
Deposits

8.7 %

7.3%

9.0%

6.5%

10.3%

9.7%

7.7

6.5

9.2

5.6

11.2

9.2

7.4

9.5

10.2

Currency

f

9.8

8.2

8.9

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Released: December 30, 1977

MONETARY BASE

AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BY THIS BANK

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
134

BILLIONS
129.6
129.7
129.4
129.9
129.9
130. 1

132

130

126

126

124

122

120

118

3 17

15 29 12 26

JAN

9 23

FEB

9 23

6 20

4 18

APR

MAY

1976

1

15 29 13 27 10 24

7 21

5 19

SEP

OCT

2 16 30 14 28 11 25

1977

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: DECEMBER 28, 1977
THE MONETARY BASE CONSISTS OF MEMBER BANK RESERVES AT THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS AND CURRENCY
IN CIRCULATION (CURRENCY HELD BY THE PUBLIC AND IN THE VAULTS OF COMMERCIAL BANKS). ADJUSTED
FOR RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO CHANGES AND SHIFTS IN THE SAME TYPE OF DEPOSITS BETWEEN BANKS
WHERE DIFFERENT RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIOS APPLY. THE MAJOR SOURCES Or THE MONETARY BASE ARE
FEDERAL RESERVE CREDIT AND THE GOLD STOCK. DATA ARE COMPUTED BY THIS BANK. A DETAILED DE­
SCRIPTION OF THE MONETARY BASE IS AVAILABLE FROM THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS.

MONETARY BASE
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE

•

AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING:

12/29/76

3/30/77

5/25/77

6/29/77

7/27/77

8/31/77

8.5
8.0
8.4
9.0
9.0
9.3
9.3
8.8

7.4
8.3
9.2
9.2
9.6
9.5
8.9

8.2
9.7
9.7
10.1
9.9
9.0

1 1.7
11.1
1 1.3
10.8
9.6

11.1
1 1.3
10.8
9.3

10.7
10.2
8.5

9/28/77 10/26/77

TO THE AVERAGE
OF FOUR WEEKS
ENDING:
5/25/77
6/29/77
7/27/77
8/31/77
9/28/77
10/26/77
11/30/77
12/28/77

2


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

10.4
8.1

6.5

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

MULTIPLIERS
ADJUSTED FEDERAL RESERVE CRED I T 2/
AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

MULTIPLIER

1977
NOV.

BAILS

1
2.56!

I 1 I I I I I 1 I I 1

Mill
LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: DECEMBER 21, 1977

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES
OF CHANGE. AVERAGE OF
THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING
DECEMBER 28, 1977 FROM
THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING:
OCT.
SEP.
AUG.
JUL,
JUN.
MAR.
DEC.

26, 1977
28, 1977
31, 1977
27, 1977
29, 1977
30, 1977
29, 1976

ADJUSTED FEDERAL RESERVE CREDIT

8.8
10.3
10.8

1 1.8

10.5

1977

I I I I 11

I I I I
3 17

1

IS 29 12 26

JAN

9 23

FEB

9 23

BILLIONS.

6 20

4 18

APR

MAY

1

15 29 13 27 10 24

7 21

5 19

SEP

OCT

2 16 30 14 28

DEC

JAN

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: DECEMBER 28, 1977
1/ RATIO OF MONEY STOCK (Ml) / MONETARY BASE.
2/ FEDERAL RESERVE CREDIT CONSISTS OF FEDERAL RESERVE HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES, LOANS, FLOAT
AND OTHER ASSETS. ADJUSTED FEDERAL RESERVE CREDIT IS COMPUTED BY SUBTRACTING TREASURY
DEPOSITS AT FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS FROM THIS SERIES, AND ADJUSTING THE SERIES FOR RE­
SERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO CHANGES AND SHIFTS IN THE SAME TYPE OF DEPOSITS BETWEEN BANKS
WHERE DIFFERENT RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIOS APPLY. DATA ARE COMPUTED BY THIS BANK.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

3

MONEY STOCK PLUS NET TIME DEPOSITS (M2)
AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

810

BILLIONS
NOV.

16

803.0
801.8

805
800
795

805.9

790
785
780
775
770
765
760
~3 755
750
-3 745
740
735
730
725
S 17

1

15 29 12 26

JAN

0 25

FEB

9 23

6 20

4 16

APR

MAY

1976

1

15 29 13 27 10 24

7 21

5 19

SEP

OCT

2 16 30 14 28 11 25

DEC

1977

JAN
1978

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: DECEMBER 21, 1977
CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS* H.6 RELEASE.

y
MONEY STOCK PLUS NET TIME DEPOSITS (M2)
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING:
12/22/76

3/23/77

5/18/77

6/22/77

7/20/77

8/24/77

9.7
9.2
10.0
9.9
9.9
9.8
9.2
9.0

9.2
10.7
10.3
10.2
10, 1
9.3
9.0

10.9
10.2
10. 1
9.9
8.9
8.6

11.9
11.3
10.7
9.3
8.9

9.4
9.2
7.9
7.7

9.4
7.5
7.3

9/21/77 10/19/77

TO THE AVERAGE
OF FOUR WEEKS
ENDING:
5/18/77
6/22/77
7/20/77
8/24/77
9/21/77
10/19/77
11/23/77
12/21/77


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

4

6.5
6.6

5.6

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

0

MONEY STOCK ( Ml )

AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
340

BILLIONS
334. 1
331.5
333.2

335

333.7
335.2
330

325

320

315

310

305

5 17

1

15 29 12 26

JAN

9 23

FEB

9 23

6 20

4 16

APR

MAY

1976

1

15 29 13 27 10 24

7 21

5 19

SEP

OCT

2 16 30 14 28 11 25

DEC

1977

JAN
1978

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: DECEMBER 21, 1977
CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS* H,6 RELEASE.
THE MONEY STOCK CONSISTS OF DEMAND DEPOSITS PLUS CURRENCY AND COIN HELD BY THE NONBANK PUBLIC.

MONEY STOCK (Ml )
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING:
12/22/76

3/23/77

5/18/77

6/22/77

7/20/77

8/24/77

8.4
10.4
9.8
10.2
10. 1
8.5
8.3

8.4
8. 1
9.0
9. 1
7.2
7.1

1 1 .9
12.0
1 1.4
8.5
8.2

9.6
9.5
6.6
6.6

10.8
6.2
6.3

9/21/77 10/19/77

TO THE AVERAGE
OF FOUR WEEKS
ENDING:
5/18/77
6/22/77
7/20/77
8/24/77
9/21/77
10/19/77
11/23/77
12/21/77


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

7.6
6.5
7.9
7.8
8.3
8.4
7.4
7.3

3.7
4.6

2.5

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BAM< OF ST. LOUIS

YIELDS ON SELECTED SECURITIES
AVERAGES OF DAILY RATES ENDED FRIDAY

PERCENT

PERCENT

—I 10.0

uni m~r

10.0 i—

CORPORATE AAA BONDS

PRIME BANK
LOAN RATE

MUNICIPAL
BONDS**

COMMERCIAL PAPER
90 DAY CD'SSBW6

I I I I I I. I I

1 J
5 19

NOV

5 17 31

DEC
1976

14 28 11 25 11 25 8 22

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

6 20

3 17

1

15 29 12 26 9 23

MAY

JUN

JUL
1977

AUG

SEP

7 21

OCT

I I II
4 18

2 16 30 13 27

NOV

DEC

JAN
1978

LATEST DATA PLOTTED ARE AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE FOR THE WEEK ENDING: DECEMBER 30, 1977

1978
NOV.

4
1 1
18

25
DEC.
2
9

16
23
30 *
JAN.
6
13
20
27

90 DAY
CD’S sate*

PRIME
COMMERCIAL
PAPER
4-6 MONTH

6.67
6.74
6.68
6.65
6.62
6.63
6.72
6.72
6.78

6.61
6.61
6.59
6.56
6.57
6.60
6.64
6.68
6.68

PRIME
BANKERS’
ACCEPTANCES
6.69
6.66

6.57
6.51
6.46
6.55
6.57
6.65
6.70

CORPORATE
Aaa BONDS

MUNICIPAL
BONDS **

8.08
8.10
8.07
8.07
8.08
8.13
8.18
8.23
8.27

5.55
5.55
5.45
5.45
5.47
5.54
5.55
5.55
N.A.

* AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE.
«« BOND BUYER’S AVERAGE INDEX OF 20 MUNICIPAL BONDS, THURSDAY DATA.
*006 SEVEN-DAY AVERAGES OF SECONDARY MARKET RATES FOR THE WEEK END ING WEDNESDAY TWO DAYS
EARLIER THAN DATES SHOWN. CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS’ H.9 RELEASE.
N.A.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NOT AVAILABLE

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

INTEREST RATES

SELECTED

AVERAGES OF DAILY RATES ENDED FRIDAY

PERCENT

PERCENT

---- 8.0

8.0 ----

IN I T T T T T ill T T T T T T T T T T T T

M il

7.5

J .. 1 - L L

7,5

3-5 YEA R
T REASU RY SECU RITIE S

7.0

-

7.0

A/

6.5

a

/

6.5

1

V'

ill.

j

A-

6.0
1

1

11

N

'N- -j

6.0

r

FE 3ERAL FUND* RATE
“V
J
A

5.5
-

r'

D 1 SCO UN" • RATE

/

5.0

5.5

J

r

—

5.0
-

A
4.5

IT T
1

T T IT

TH TEE-MIDNTH TR EASUR-1i
B1 _L MAFTKET Yl ELD

4.0

4.0

5s
0

4.5

111.
5 10

NOV

1111 _Li_L I..L.L . 1.1 1 -1.L1-.1
3 17 31

DEC
1976

14 26 11 25 11

JAN

FEB

MAR

25

1 l 1 JJJJ 1 1 1 1 -i. 11 ..INI

6 22 6 20

APR

MAY

3 17

1

JUN

JUL
1977

15 20 12 26 0 23

AUG

SEP

i
1 1 1 JJLL JILL 1 LL
7 21

OCT

4 18

2 16 30 13 27

NOV

DEC

JAN
1978

LATEST DATA PLOTTED ARE AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE FOR THE WEEK ENDING: DECEMBER 30, 1977

1978
NOV.

4
1 1
18
25
DEC.
2
9
16
23
30 ***
JAN.
6
13
20
27

FEDERAL
FUNDS H6K

3-MONTH
TREASURY
BILLS

1-YEAR
TREASURY
BILL

3-5 YEAR
TREASURY
SECURITIES

LONG-TERM
TREASURY
SECURITIES

6.50
6.58
6.42
6.51
6.55
6.51
6.49
6.54
6.65

6.20
6.15
6.07
6.06
6.04
6.07
6.03
6.03
6.18

6.60
6.55
6.49
6.48
6.49
6.52
6.50
6.53
6.58

7.36
7.30
7.24
7.25
7.29
7.36
7.38
7.43
7.49

7.70
7.71
7.67
7.65
7.66
7.71
7.74
7.80
7.86

* AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE.
** SEVEN-DAY AVERAGES FOR WEEK ENDING WEDNESDAY TWO DAYS EARLIER THAN DATE SHOWN.
CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.9 RELEASE.
RATES ON LONG-TERM TREASURY SECURITIES ARE COMPUTED BY THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS.
TREASURY BILL YIELDS ON DISCOUNT BASIS.

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

0

NET TIME DEPOSITS
ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS
AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
480

BILLIONS

r

475

468.9
470.3
470.7
471.2
471.3
470.7

DEC

470
465
460
455
450
445
440
435
430
425
420
415

3 17

1

15 29 12 26

JAN

9 23

FEB

9 23

6 20

4 16

APR

MAY

1

1976

15 29 13 27 10 24

7 21

S 19

2 16 30 14 28 11 25

1977

1978

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING; DECEMBER 21, 1977
CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS’ H.6 RELEASE.
* NET TIME DEPOSITS ARE DEFINED AS: SAVINGS DEPOSITS, TIME DEPOSITS OPEN ACCOUNT PLUS TIME
CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT OTHER THAN NEGOTIABLE TIME CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT ISSUED IN
DENOMINATIONS OF *100,000 OR MORE BY LARGE WEEKLY REPORTING COMMERCIAL BANKS.

NET TIME DEPOSITS
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING:
12/22/76

3/23/77

5/18/77

6/22/77

7/20/77

8/24/77

11.2
11.2
11.7
11.4
11.1
10.8
10.6
10.3

9.9
11.0
10.7
10.4
10. 1
9.9
9.6

12.8
1 1.7
10.9
10.5
10. 1
9.7

12.0
10.8
10.3
9.9
9.5

9. 1
8.9
8.8
8.5

8.4
8.4
8.1

9/21/77 10/19/77

TO THE AVERAGE
OF FOUR WEEKS
ENDING:
5/18/77
6/22/77
7/20/77
8/24/77
9/21/77
10/19/77
11/23/77
12/21/77

8


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

8.5
8.1

8.0

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

DEMAND DEPOSIT COMPONENT OF MONEY STOCK
AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
250 --------- 1------------ 1-----

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
---------------------------- 250

billions

— DEC

246.4
243.8
245. 1
245.6
246.7

NOV

DEC
1976

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

5 19

JUN
jg'

SEP

OCT

2 16 30 14 28 11 25

DEC

JAN

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: DECEMBER 21, 1977
CURRENT DATA APPEAR

IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS'

H.6 RELEASE.

DEMAND DEPOSIT COMPONENT OF MONEY STOCK
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING:
12/22/76

3/23/77

5/18/77

6/22/77

7/20/77

8/24/77

7.0
5.6
7.2
7.2
7.8
7.8
6.6
6.5

8.1
10.3
9.7
10.2
9.9
7.9
7.6

7.5
7.6
8.8
8.7
6.3
6.1

12.0
12.3
11.4
7.7
7.4

10.0
9.5
5.6
5.6

10.6
4.9
5.0

9/21/77 10/19/77

TO THE AVERAGE
OF FOUR WEEKS
ENDING:
5/18/77
6/22/77
7/20/77
8/24/77
9/21/77
10/19/77
11/23/77
12/21/77


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

9

CURRENCY COMPONENT
OF MONEY STOCK
AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
90----------1------------ !-------

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
------------------------------ 90

BILL I MS.
87.7
87.7

88. 1
88.0

I I I I I l-L
3 17

1

15 29 12 26

JAN

9 23

FEB

9 23

6 20

4 16

APR

MAY

1

15 29 13 27 10 24

7 21

5 19

2 16 30 14 28 11 25

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK END I NO: DECEMBER 21, 1977
CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.6 RELEASE.

t

CURRENCY

COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE , AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDINGt
12/22/76

3/23/77

5/18/77

6/22/77

7/20/77

8/24/77

9.1
10.0
9.8
9.7
10. 1
9.9
9.8

10.1
9.7
9.6
10.2
9.9
9.8

10.8
10.4
10.9
10.4
10.2

9.2
10.3
9.8
9.7

11.1
10.2
10.0

9/21/77 10/19/77

TO THE AVERAGE
OF FOUR WEEKS
ENDING!
5/18/77
6/22/77
7/20/77
8/24/77
9/21/77
10/19/77
11/23/77
12/21/77

10


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

9.5
9.2
9.7
9.6
9.6
9.9
9.7
9.7

10.5
10. 1

9.0

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

BORROWINGS FROM FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS
ALL MEMBER BANKS IN THE NATION
AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES

BILL I OIOS OF DOLLARS
2.5 --------- 1------------ 1----liZI

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
------------------ ---------- 2.5

MILLIONS

NOV. 23
DEC.

3 17

1

7

15 29 12 26

DEC
1976

JAN

9 23

FEB

9 23

MAR

6 20

4 18

APR

MAY

l

15 29 13 27 10 24

JUN
JUL
1977
LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: DECEMBER 28, 1977

AUG

7 21

5 19

SEP

OCT

2 16 30 14 28 11 25

NOV

DEC

JAN
1978

BUSINESS LOANS

( COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL )

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
126 --------- ------------ -----

WEEKLY REPORTING LARGE COMMERCIAL BANKS
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
---------------------------- 126

_ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES
OF CHANGE. AVERAGE OF
— THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING
— DECEMBER 21, 1977 FROM
— THE FOUR WEEKS ENDINGt
“ OCT. 19, 1977
— SEP. 21
------1977

MILLIONS

14.2
NOV. 16
10.9

10.6
8.0
6.8
6.4

1

NOV

DEC
1976

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

15 29 13 27 10 24

JUN
JUL
1977

AUG

7 21

SEP

5 19

2 16 30 14 28 11 25

DEC

JAN

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: DECEMBER 21, 1977


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT

LARGE COMMERCIAL BANKS
WEDNESDAY FIGURES
NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

billions of dollars

72.5
74.0

-----DEC.

74.5

5 17

I1 I 15I I 29

12 2*
JAN

9 23

9 25

6 20

4 18

I

15 29 15 27 10 24

FEB

7 21
SEP

5 19
OCT

2 16 50 14 28 11 -25
DEC
JAN

1976
LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: DECEMBER 21,

1977

CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.6 RELEASE.
NEGOTIABLE TIME CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT ISSUED IN DENOMINATIONS OF 8100,000 OR MORE BV LARGE
WEEKLY REPORTING COMMERCIAL BAfKS.
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS