Full text of U.S. Financial Data : Week Ending: December 28, 1977
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/ u. LIBRARY DEC 2 6 1979 Week ending: December 28, 1977 The monetary base, the prime determinant of the growth of the money stock, increased 8.7 percent over the past year, while the narrowly defined money stock (Ml) increased 7.3 percent and the more broadly defined money stock (M2) increased 9 percent. The monetary base grew more rapidly during the second half of the year (at a 9.8 percent annual rate) than during the first half of the year (at a 7.7 percent rate). The pattern of Ml growth during the year followed the growth of the base, rising at a 6.5 percent annual rate during the first six months of the year, and at a faster 8.2 percent rate during the most recent six months. In contrast, M2 grew at a slightly slower rate in the second half of the year than in the first half. The varying growth rates of the components of Ml and M2 indicate how each contributed to the different pattern of M2 growth relative to Ml. A reduced growth of net time deposits (a component of M2 but not of Ml) during the last six months overwhelmed the accelerated growth of both demand deposits and currency, resulting in the slower rate of growth of M2. An important factor affecting the growth of net time deposits was the differential between the maximum rates of interest which banks are allowed by statute to pay on these deposits and the market rates of interest on alternative securities. As market rates of interest rise toward these ceiling rates, the incentive for individuals to hold time deposits is weakened. Short-term market interest rates rose during most of 1977, and by the fourth quarter were very close to the ceiling levels on time deposits. While short-term interest rates are currently 190 to 215 basis points higher than they were at the end of 1976, long-term interest rates have not changed as much. The yield on corporate Aaa bonds is currently 31 basis points higher than a year ago, while an average of yields on long-term Treasury securities (10 years and over) is currently 68 basis points higher than a year ago. In contrast, the average yield on municipal bonds is currently 38 basis points lower than a year ago. With short-term rates rising more rapidly than long-term rates, the yield curve has flattened during 1977. Growth Rates of Monetary Aggregates (Compound Annual Rates) Average of Four Weeks Ending 12/22/76 12/21/77 12/22/76 6/22/77 6/22/77 12/21/77 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Base Ml M2 Demand Deposits Net Time Deposits 8.7 % 7.3% 9.0% 6.5% 10.3% 9.7% 7.7 6.5 9.2 5.6 11.2 9.2 7.4 9.5 10.2 Currency f 9.8 8.2 8.9 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Released: December 30, 1977 MONETARY BASE AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BY THIS BANK BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 134 BILLIONS 129.6 129.7 129.4 129.9 129.9 130. 1 132 130 126 126 124 122 120 118 3 17 15 29 12 26 JAN 9 23 FEB 9 23 6 20 4 18 APR MAY 1976 1 15 29 13 27 10 24 7 21 5 19 SEP OCT 2 16 30 14 28 11 25 1977 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: DECEMBER 28, 1977 THE MONETARY BASE CONSISTS OF MEMBER BANK RESERVES AT THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS AND CURRENCY IN CIRCULATION (CURRENCY HELD BY THE PUBLIC AND IN THE VAULTS OF COMMERCIAL BANKS). ADJUSTED FOR RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO CHANGES AND SHIFTS IN THE SAME TYPE OF DEPOSITS BETWEEN BANKS WHERE DIFFERENT RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIOS APPLY. THE MAJOR SOURCES Or THE MONETARY BASE ARE FEDERAL RESERVE CREDIT AND THE GOLD STOCK. DATA ARE COMPUTED BY THIS BANK. A DETAILED DE SCRIPTION OF THE MONETARY BASE IS AVAILABLE FROM THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS. MONETARY BASE COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE • AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 12/29/76 3/30/77 5/25/77 6/29/77 7/27/77 8/31/77 8.5 8.0 8.4 9.0 9.0 9.3 9.3 8.8 7.4 8.3 9.2 9.2 9.6 9.5 8.9 8.2 9.7 9.7 10.1 9.9 9.0 1 1.7 11.1 1 1.3 10.8 9.6 11.1 1 1.3 10.8 9.3 10.7 10.2 8.5 9/28/77 10/26/77 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 5/25/77 6/29/77 7/27/77 8/31/77 9/28/77 10/26/77 11/30/77 12/28/77 2 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 10.4 8.1 6.5 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS MULTIPLIERS ADJUSTED FEDERAL RESERVE CRED I T 2/ AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED MULTIPLIER 1977 NOV. BAILS 1 2.56! I 1 I I I I I 1 I I 1 Mill LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: DECEMBER 21, 1977 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE. AVERAGE OF THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING DECEMBER 28, 1977 FROM THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING: OCT. SEP. AUG. JUL, JUN. MAR. DEC. 26, 1977 28, 1977 31, 1977 27, 1977 29, 1977 30, 1977 29, 1976 ADJUSTED FEDERAL RESERVE CREDIT 8.8 10.3 10.8 1 1.8 10.5 1977 I I I I 11 I I I I 3 17 1 IS 29 12 26 JAN 9 23 FEB 9 23 BILLIONS. 6 20 4 18 APR MAY 1 15 29 13 27 10 24 7 21 5 19 SEP OCT 2 16 30 14 28 DEC JAN LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: DECEMBER 28, 1977 1/ RATIO OF MONEY STOCK (Ml) / MONETARY BASE. 2/ FEDERAL RESERVE CREDIT CONSISTS OF FEDERAL RESERVE HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES, LOANS, FLOAT AND OTHER ASSETS. ADJUSTED FEDERAL RESERVE CREDIT IS COMPUTED BY SUBTRACTING TREASURY DEPOSITS AT FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS FROM THIS SERIES, AND ADJUSTING THE SERIES FOR RE SERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO CHANGES AND SHIFTS IN THE SAME TYPE OF DEPOSITS BETWEEN BANKS WHERE DIFFERENT RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIOS APPLY. DATA ARE COMPUTED BY THIS BANK. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 3 MONEY STOCK PLUS NET TIME DEPOSITS (M2) AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 810 BILLIONS NOV. 16 803.0 801.8 805 800 795 805.9 790 785 780 775 770 765 760 ~3 755 750 -3 745 740 735 730 725 S 17 1 15 29 12 26 JAN 0 25 FEB 9 23 6 20 4 16 APR MAY 1976 1 15 29 13 27 10 24 7 21 5 19 SEP OCT 2 16 30 14 28 11 25 DEC 1977 JAN 1978 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: DECEMBER 21, 1977 CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS* H.6 RELEASE. y MONEY STOCK PLUS NET TIME DEPOSITS (M2) COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 12/22/76 3/23/77 5/18/77 6/22/77 7/20/77 8/24/77 9.7 9.2 10.0 9.9 9.9 9.8 9.2 9.0 9.2 10.7 10.3 10.2 10, 1 9.3 9.0 10.9 10.2 10. 1 9.9 8.9 8.6 11.9 11.3 10.7 9.3 8.9 9.4 9.2 7.9 7.7 9.4 7.5 7.3 9/21/77 10/19/77 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 5/18/77 6/22/77 7/20/77 8/24/77 9/21/77 10/19/77 11/23/77 12/21/77 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 4 6.5 6.6 5.6 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 0 MONEY STOCK ( Ml ) AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 340 BILLIONS 334. 1 331.5 333.2 335 333.7 335.2 330 325 320 315 310 305 5 17 1 15 29 12 26 JAN 9 23 FEB 9 23 6 20 4 16 APR MAY 1976 1 15 29 13 27 10 24 7 21 5 19 SEP OCT 2 16 30 14 28 11 25 DEC 1977 JAN 1978 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: DECEMBER 21, 1977 CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS* H,6 RELEASE. THE MONEY STOCK CONSISTS OF DEMAND DEPOSITS PLUS CURRENCY AND COIN HELD BY THE NONBANK PUBLIC. MONEY STOCK (Ml ) COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 12/22/76 3/23/77 5/18/77 6/22/77 7/20/77 8/24/77 8.4 10.4 9.8 10.2 10. 1 8.5 8.3 8.4 8. 1 9.0 9. 1 7.2 7.1 1 1 .9 12.0 1 1.4 8.5 8.2 9.6 9.5 6.6 6.6 10.8 6.2 6.3 9/21/77 10/19/77 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 5/18/77 6/22/77 7/20/77 8/24/77 9/21/77 10/19/77 11/23/77 12/21/77 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 7.6 6.5 7.9 7.8 8.3 8.4 7.4 7.3 3.7 4.6 2.5 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BAM< OF ST. LOUIS YIELDS ON SELECTED SECURITIES AVERAGES OF DAILY RATES ENDED FRIDAY PERCENT PERCENT —I 10.0 uni m~r 10.0 i— CORPORATE AAA BONDS PRIME BANK LOAN RATE MUNICIPAL BONDS** COMMERCIAL PAPER 90 DAY CD'SSBW6 I I I I I I. I I 1 J 5 19 NOV 5 17 31 DEC 1976 14 28 11 25 11 25 8 22 JAN FEB MAR APR 6 20 3 17 1 15 29 12 26 9 23 MAY JUN JUL 1977 AUG SEP 7 21 OCT I I II 4 18 2 16 30 13 27 NOV DEC JAN 1978 LATEST DATA PLOTTED ARE AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE FOR THE WEEK ENDING: DECEMBER 30, 1977 1978 NOV. 4 1 1 18 25 DEC. 2 9 16 23 30 * JAN. 6 13 20 27 90 DAY CD’S sate* PRIME COMMERCIAL PAPER 4-6 MONTH 6.67 6.74 6.68 6.65 6.62 6.63 6.72 6.72 6.78 6.61 6.61 6.59 6.56 6.57 6.60 6.64 6.68 6.68 PRIME BANKERS’ ACCEPTANCES 6.69 6.66 6.57 6.51 6.46 6.55 6.57 6.65 6.70 CORPORATE Aaa BONDS MUNICIPAL BONDS ** 8.08 8.10 8.07 8.07 8.08 8.13 8.18 8.23 8.27 5.55 5.55 5.45 5.45 5.47 5.54 5.55 5.55 N.A. * AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE. «« BOND BUYER’S AVERAGE INDEX OF 20 MUNICIPAL BONDS, THURSDAY DATA. *006 SEVEN-DAY AVERAGES OF SECONDARY MARKET RATES FOR THE WEEK END ING WEDNESDAY TWO DAYS EARLIER THAN DATES SHOWN. CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS’ H.9 RELEASE. N.A. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NOT AVAILABLE PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS INTEREST RATES SELECTED AVERAGES OF DAILY RATES ENDED FRIDAY PERCENT PERCENT ---- 8.0 8.0 ---- IN I T T T T T ill T T T T T T T T T T T T M il 7.5 J .. 1 - L L 7,5 3-5 YEA R T REASU RY SECU RITIE S 7.0 - 7.0 A/ 6.5 a / 6.5 1 V' ill. j A- 6.0 1 1 11 N 'N- -j 6.0 r FE 3ERAL FUND* RATE “V J A 5.5 - r' D 1 SCO UN" • RATE / 5.0 5.5 J r — 5.0 - A 4.5 IT T 1 T T IT TH TEE-MIDNTH TR EASUR-1i B1 _L MAFTKET Yl ELD 4.0 4.0 5s 0 4.5 111. 5 10 NOV 1111 _Li_L I..L.L . 1.1 1 -1.L1-.1 3 17 31 DEC 1976 14 26 11 25 11 JAN FEB MAR 25 1 l 1 JJJJ 1 1 1 1 -i. 11 ..INI 6 22 6 20 APR MAY 3 17 1 JUN JUL 1977 15 20 12 26 0 23 AUG SEP i 1 1 1 JJLL JILL 1 LL 7 21 OCT 4 18 2 16 30 13 27 NOV DEC JAN 1978 LATEST DATA PLOTTED ARE AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE FOR THE WEEK ENDING: DECEMBER 30, 1977 1978 NOV. 4 1 1 18 25 DEC. 2 9 16 23 30 *** JAN. 6 13 20 27 FEDERAL FUNDS H6K 3-MONTH TREASURY BILLS 1-YEAR TREASURY BILL 3-5 YEAR TREASURY SECURITIES LONG-TERM TREASURY SECURITIES 6.50 6.58 6.42 6.51 6.55 6.51 6.49 6.54 6.65 6.20 6.15 6.07 6.06 6.04 6.07 6.03 6.03 6.18 6.60 6.55 6.49 6.48 6.49 6.52 6.50 6.53 6.58 7.36 7.30 7.24 7.25 7.29 7.36 7.38 7.43 7.49 7.70 7.71 7.67 7.65 7.66 7.71 7.74 7.80 7.86 * AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE. ** SEVEN-DAY AVERAGES FOR WEEK ENDING WEDNESDAY TWO DAYS EARLIER THAN DATE SHOWN. CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.9 RELEASE. RATES ON LONG-TERM TREASURY SECURITIES ARE COMPUTED BY THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS. TREASURY BILL YIELDS ON DISCOUNT BASIS. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 0 NET TIME DEPOSITS ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 480 BILLIONS r 475 468.9 470.3 470.7 471.2 471.3 470.7 DEC 470 465 460 455 450 445 440 435 430 425 420 415 3 17 1 15 29 12 26 JAN 9 23 FEB 9 23 6 20 4 16 APR MAY 1 1976 15 29 13 27 10 24 7 21 S 19 2 16 30 14 28 11 25 1977 1978 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING; DECEMBER 21, 1977 CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS’ H.6 RELEASE. * NET TIME DEPOSITS ARE DEFINED AS: SAVINGS DEPOSITS, TIME DEPOSITS OPEN ACCOUNT PLUS TIME CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT OTHER THAN NEGOTIABLE TIME CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT ISSUED IN DENOMINATIONS OF *100,000 OR MORE BY LARGE WEEKLY REPORTING COMMERCIAL BANKS. NET TIME DEPOSITS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 12/22/76 3/23/77 5/18/77 6/22/77 7/20/77 8/24/77 11.2 11.2 11.7 11.4 11.1 10.8 10.6 10.3 9.9 11.0 10.7 10.4 10. 1 9.9 9.6 12.8 1 1.7 10.9 10.5 10. 1 9.7 12.0 10.8 10.3 9.9 9.5 9. 1 8.9 8.8 8.5 8.4 8.4 8.1 9/21/77 10/19/77 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 5/18/77 6/22/77 7/20/77 8/24/77 9/21/77 10/19/77 11/23/77 12/21/77 8 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 8.5 8.1 8.0 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS DEMAND DEPOSIT COMPONENT OF MONEY STOCK AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 250 --------- 1------------ 1----- BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ---------------------------- 250 billions — DEC 246.4 243.8 245. 1 245.6 246.7 NOV DEC 1976 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY 5 19 JUN jg' SEP OCT 2 16 30 14 28 11 25 DEC JAN LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: DECEMBER 21, 1977 CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.6 RELEASE. DEMAND DEPOSIT COMPONENT OF MONEY STOCK COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 12/22/76 3/23/77 5/18/77 6/22/77 7/20/77 8/24/77 7.0 5.6 7.2 7.2 7.8 7.8 6.6 6.5 8.1 10.3 9.7 10.2 9.9 7.9 7.6 7.5 7.6 8.8 8.7 6.3 6.1 12.0 12.3 11.4 7.7 7.4 10.0 9.5 5.6 5.6 10.6 4.9 5.0 9/21/77 10/19/77 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 5/18/77 6/22/77 7/20/77 8/24/77 9/21/77 10/19/77 11/23/77 12/21/77 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 9 CURRENCY COMPONENT OF MONEY STOCK AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 90----------1------------ !------- BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ------------------------------ 90 BILL I MS. 87.7 87.7 88. 1 88.0 I I I I I l-L 3 17 1 15 29 12 26 JAN 9 23 FEB 9 23 6 20 4 16 APR MAY 1 15 29 13 27 10 24 7 21 5 19 2 16 30 14 28 11 25 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK END I NO: DECEMBER 21, 1977 CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.6 RELEASE. t CURRENCY COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE , AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDINGt 12/22/76 3/23/77 5/18/77 6/22/77 7/20/77 8/24/77 9.1 10.0 9.8 9.7 10. 1 9.9 9.8 10.1 9.7 9.6 10.2 9.9 9.8 10.8 10.4 10.9 10.4 10.2 9.2 10.3 9.8 9.7 11.1 10.2 10.0 9/21/77 10/19/77 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING! 5/18/77 6/22/77 7/20/77 8/24/77 9/21/77 10/19/77 11/23/77 12/21/77 10 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 9.5 9.2 9.7 9.6 9.6 9.9 9.7 9.7 10.5 10. 1 9.0 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS BORROWINGS FROM FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS ALL MEMBER BANKS IN THE NATION AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES BILL I OIOS OF DOLLARS 2.5 --------- 1------------ 1----liZI BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ------------------ ---------- 2.5 MILLIONS NOV. 23 DEC. 3 17 1 7 15 29 12 26 DEC 1976 JAN 9 23 FEB 9 23 MAR 6 20 4 18 APR MAY l 15 29 13 27 10 24 JUN JUL 1977 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: DECEMBER 28, 1977 AUG 7 21 5 19 SEP OCT 2 16 30 14 28 11 25 NOV DEC JAN 1978 BUSINESS LOANS ( COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL ) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 126 --------- ------------ ----- WEEKLY REPORTING LARGE COMMERCIAL BANKS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ---------------------------- 126 _ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE. AVERAGE OF — THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING — DECEMBER 21, 1977 FROM — THE FOUR WEEKS ENDINGt “ OCT. 19, 1977 — SEP. 21 ------1977 MILLIONS 14.2 NOV. 16 10.9 10.6 8.0 6.8 6.4 1 NOV DEC 1976 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY 15 29 13 27 10 24 JUN JUL 1977 AUG 7 21 SEP 5 19 2 16 30 14 28 11 25 DEC JAN LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: DECEMBER 21, 1977 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT LARGE COMMERCIAL BANKS WEDNESDAY FIGURES NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED billions of dollars 72.5 74.0 -----DEC. 74.5 5 17 I1 I 15I I 29 12 2* JAN 9 23 9 25 6 20 4 18 I 15 29 15 27 10 24 FEB 7 21 SEP 5 19 OCT 2 16 50 14 28 11 -25 DEC JAN 1976 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: DECEMBER 21, 1977 CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.6 RELEASE. NEGOTIABLE TIME CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT ISSUED IN DENOMINATIONS OF 8100,000 OR MORE BV LARGE WEEKLY REPORTING COMMERCIAL BAfKS. PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS