Full text of U.S. Financial Data : Week Ending: December 16, 1981
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F//V/I/VC//1/. 0/1 7/1 Week ending: December 16, 1981 LJBRARV OEC 22 190 Tflere is a close long-run relationship between M1B and the adjusted monetary base. However, the shorter-run movements in these aggregates may diverge because of changes in the public's preference for holdings of certain assets, such as a change in its desire to hold currency relative to checkable deposits (k-ratio) or time and savings deposits relative to checkable deposits (t-ratio). Such developments are reflected in movements in the M1B multiplier (page 8). For example, if the public desires to hold a smaller proportion of money in the form of currency, then the proportion of base held in the form of reserves increases, and checkable deposits will likely expand. Other things equal, this will cause the multiplier to rise as the k-ratio falls. Likewise, if the public decides to hold a smaller proportion of bank deposits in the form of time deposits, then reserves are freed to support more checkable deposits. This leads to a reduction in the t-ratio and, other things equal, an increase in the multiplier. Thus, for a given growth in the adjusted base, decisions to hold less currency or time deposits relative to checkable deposits will result in an expansion of the money supply. Both the adjusted base and M1B have increased at about a 5.0 percent rate from January to November of this year. This close relationship occurred despite the sometimes divergent growth rates of the two aggregates over shorter intervals. From January to April, for example, M1B increased at a 14.1 percent rate while the adjusted base increased at an 8.4 percent rate. The growth in M1B was associated with a larger growth in checkable deposits (16.6 percent) relative to both currency (8.1 percent) and time and savings deposits (2.6 percent). Hence, the t- and k-ratios decreased and the multiplier increased. Similarly, from April to June, M1B decreased at a rate of 6.1 percent while the adjusted base increased at a 5.2 percent rate. Both currency and time and savings deposits grew relative to checkable deposits over this period. As a result, both the t- and k-ratios increased and the multiplier declined. From June to November, the growth rates of currency, time and savings deposits and checkable deposits have remained more stable. This is reflected in a closer relationship between the growth of M1B (4.7 percent) and the growth of adjusted base (3.0 percent). Growth Rates of Adjusted Monetary Base and Selected Components of Monetary Aggregates Period Adjusted monetary base Currency held by the nonbank public M1B Savings plus time deposits at commercial banks Total checkable deposits 1/81 - 4/81 8.4 4/81 - 6/81 5.2 -6.1 5.2 18.9 -10.0 6/81 -11/81 3.0 4.7 4.5 10.2 4.5 % 14.1 % 8.1 % 2.6 % DUE TO THE HOLIDAY ON FRIDAY, NEXT WEEK'S RELEASE WILL BE PUBLISHED LATE. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Released: December T8, 1981 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 16.6 % 2 ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BY THIS BANK BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 176 BILLIONS __ NOV. 169.6 170.1 170.0 DEC. 170.0 FEB MAR 1980 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: DECEMBER 16, 1981 THE ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE CONSISTS OF: ( I ) RESERVE ACCOUNTS OF FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AT FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS, (2) CURRENCY IN CIRCULATION (CURRENCY HELD BY THE PUBLIC AND IN THE VAULTS OF COMMERCIAL BANKS). AND (3) AN ADJUSTMENT FOR RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO CHANGES. THE MAJOR SOURCE OF THE ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE IS FEDERAL RESERVE CREDIT. DATA ARE COMPUTED BY THIS BANK. A DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE IS AVAILABLE FROM THIS BANK. ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 12/17/80 3/18/81 5/13/81 6/17/81 7/15/8 1 8/19/81 9/16/81 5. 1 5.0 4.7 5.5 4.9 4.2 4.4 4.5 6.7 5.9 6.9 5.8 4.6 4.8 4.9 3.9 6.2 4.8 3.3 3.9 4. 1 7. 1 4.9 3.0 3.7 4.0 5.7 2.9 3.8 4.1 -1.5 1.4 2.4 2.1 3.1 10/14/81 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS END 1 NG -. 5/13/81 6/17/81 7/15/81 8/19/81 9/16/81 10/14/81 11/18/81 12/16/81 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 6.0 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS ADJUSTED RESERVES AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 50 ------------- 1---------- 1-------- BILLIONS OF DOLLARS -------- ------------------------- 50 BILLIONS NOV. 47.0 47.8 48.2 47.8 48.2 47.5 DEC. I 15 29 12 26 10 24 7 21 1980 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: DECEMBER 9, 1981 BASE ( RESERVE ACCOUNTS OF FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AT FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS PLUS CURRENCY IN CIRCULATION) LESS CURRENCY HELD BY THE NONBANK PUBLIC. ADJUSTED RESERVES COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, 2/10/80 3/11/81 5/6/81 6/10/81 6.2 2.0 5.7 5.7 3.4 3.2 4.0 0.0 6.5 6.3 3. 1 2.9 4.0 5.0 5.2 1.3 1.5 3.0 AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 7/8/81 8/12/81 9/9/81 10/7/81 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS END 1NG: 5/ 6/81 6/10/81 7/ 8/81 8/12/81 9/ 9/81 10/ 7/81 11/11/81 12/ 9/81 -1.6 0.4 -1 . 1 1.6 2.0 0.8 0.9 1.7 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 13.0 5.2 4.4 5.6 -2.7 -0.8 1.9 -3.6 0.8 6.3 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 3 4 MONEY STOCK ( Ml A ) AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 400 BU-L1QNS 360. 1 360.3 360.0 364.5 362.4 JAN OCT FEB NOV 1980 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: DECEMBER 9, 1981 CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.6 RELEASE. MIA CONSISTS OF CURRENCY HELD BY THE NONBANK PUBLIC PLUS COMMERCIAL BANK DEMAND DEPOSITS HELD BY THE NONBANK PUBLIC (EXCLUDING THOSE HELD BY FOREIGN BANKS AND OFFICIAL INSTITUTIONS) PLUS TRAVELER'S CHECKS OF NONBANK ISSUERS. MONEY STOCK (MIA) COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE 12/10/80 3/11/81 5/6/81 6/10/81 AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 7/8/81 8/12/81 9/9/81 10/7/81 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 5/ 6/81 6/10/81 7/ 8/81 8/12/81 9/ 9/81 10/ 7/81 11/11/81 12/ 9/81 -14.8 -13.7 -12.4 -10.8 -10.1 -9.4 -8.5 -7.3 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis -4.3 -4.0 -3.3 -3.4 -3.2 -2.8 -1.8 -6.6 -4.5 -4.4 -4.0 -3.3 -2.0 -1.7 -2.5 -2.3 -1 .9 -0.5 -2.2 -2. 1 -1 .6 0.0 -3.0 -2.0 0.2 -1 .0 1.6 3. 1 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS MONEY STOCK ( MlB ) AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS of dollars billions 450 — NOV. — DEC. 433.3 435.7 437.4 435.9 439.8 440.6 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: DECEMBER 9, 1981 CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS’ H.6 RELEASE. MlB CONSISTS OF MIA PLUS OTHER CHECKABLE DEPOSITS AT ALL DEPOSITARY INSTITUTIONS. MONEY STOCK ( MlB ) COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, 12/10/80 3/11/81 5/6/81 AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 6/10/81 7/8/81 2.2 2.2 1.9 2.2 4. 1 2.9 2.3 2.5 4.7 8/12/81 9/9/81 10/7/81 2.2 6. 1 8.3 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 5/ 6/81 6/10/81 7/ 8/81 8/12/81 9/ 9/81 10/ 7/81 1 I/I 1/81 12/ 9/81 9.4 5.3 4.6 4.5 4.2 3.9 3.8 4.7 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 5.9 4.6 4.3 4.0 3.6 3.5 4.7 -5.7 -2.5 -1.5 -1 .0 -0.3 1 .6 1.7 2.2 5. 1 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS s 6 YIELDS ON SELECTED SECURITIES AVERAGES OF DAILY RATES ENDED FRIDAY PERCENT 22.0 22.0 21 .0 PRIME BANK LOAN RATE 21.0 20.0 20.0 19.0 19.0 90 DAY CD'S 18.0 17.0 17.0 16.0 16.0 COMMERCIAL PAPER 15.0 14.0 14.0 CORPORATE Aaa BONDS 13.0 12.0 1 I .0 10.0 9.0 8.0 I I I I 1 OCT NOV 1980 DEC JAN FEB MAR APR 15 29 MAY 12 26 10 24 JUN 11 7 21 AUG 30 SEP 13 27 NOV LATEST DATA PLOTTED ARE AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE FOR THE WEEK ENDING: DECEMBER 18, 90 DAY CD'S 1981 OCT. NOV. DEC. 2 9 16 23 30 6 13 20 27 4 1 1 18 * 25 16.48 15.50 15.03 15.28 15.14 14. 13 12.77 11.97 11.51 11.62 11.96 12.64 PRIME COMMERCIAL PAPER 15.89 14.95 14.48 14.70 14.57 13.64 12.41 11.57 11.09 11.35 11.61 12.32 PRIME BANKERS' ACCEPTANCES 15.83 14.91 14.53 14.81 14.57 13.54 12.34 1 1 .51 11.14 11.37 1 1.71 12.31 CORPORATE BONDS AAA 15.85 15.40 15. 18 15.36 15.51 14.88 14. 18 13.92 13.92 13.99 14. 16 14. 10 CORPORATE Baa BONDS 17.25 17.09 16.99 17.09 17. 19 16.87 16.41 16.20 16.08 16. 15 16.42 16.51 11 25 DEC 1981 MUNICIPAL BONDS *# 12.93 12.73 12.53 12.99 12.99 12.44 11.43 11.71 11.98 12.18 12.89 N. A. * AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE. ** BOND BUYER'S AVERAGE INDEX OF 20 MUNICIPAL BONDS, THURSDAY DATA. DATA ARE 4-MONTH COMMERCIAL PAPER RATES. N.A. - NOT AVAILABLE http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 0 SELECTED INTEREST RATES AVERAGES OF DAILY RATES ENDED FRIDAY 22.0 22.0 21 .0 21.0 FEDERAL FUNDS RATE 20.0 19.0 18.0 3-MONTH TREASURY BILL 17.0 17.0 16.0 15.0 M.O DISCOUNT RATE 13.0 13.0 12.0 12.0 5-YEAR TREASURY SECURITIES 1 1.0 1 1.0 10.0 10.0 9.0 I I I I FEB MAR APR LATEST DATA PLOTTED ARE AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE FOR THE WEEK ENDING: DECEMBER 18, FEDERAL FUNDS ** 1981 OCT. NOV. DEC. 2 9 16 23 30 6 13 20 27 4 1 1 18 * 25 15 15 14 15 14 14 14 13 12 12 12 12 00 46 93 32 87 79 01 17 42 48 04 26 3-MONTH TREASURY BILL 14.37 13.81 13.41 13.37 13. 14 12.21 10.93 10.31 10.23 10.39 10.47 10.96 6-MONTH TREASURY B1LL **# 14 14 13 13 13 12 1 1 10 10 10 10 1 1 93 22 50 80 62 72 51 97 92 70 77 60 1-YEAR TREASURY BILL 14 13 13 13 13 12 1 1 10 10 10 1 1 1 1 54 71 42 60 36 35 29 78 63 85 13 54 5-YEAR TREASURY SECURITIES 16 15 15 15 15 14 13 13 12 13 13 13 1 1 39 14 45 36 36 43 12 81 03 47 42 1981 LONG-TERM TREASURY SECURITIES 15.05 14.42 14.34 14.61 14.72 13.81 13. 16 12.78 12.71 12.78 13.21 13.20 * AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE. #* SEVEN-DAY AVERAGES FOR WEEK ENDING WEDNESDAY TWO DAYS EARLIER THAN DATE SHOWN. CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.I5 RELEASE. new i ssue rate LONG-TERM TREASURY SECURITIES ARE COMPUTED BY THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS. TREASURY BILL YIELDS ON DISCOUNT BASIS. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PREPARED 8Y FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 7 8 MULTIPLIERS!/ CURRENCY OF MONEY STOCK MEASURES 2/ AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED RATIO MONEY MULTIPLIERS DEC. RATIO NOV. I I I I I I I I I I I I J LLLL LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING; DECEMBER 9, 1981 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ----------------- -------------- 128 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 128 ------------- ,---------- 1-----“ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE. AVERAGE OF -----THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING DECEMBER 9, 1981 FROM - THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING; - OCT. SEP. - AUG. JUL. —JUN. MAR. - DEC. 7, 9, 12, 8, 10, 11, 10, 1981 1981 1981 1981 1981 1981 1980 5.4 3.7 2.8 4.0 4.2 5.4 5.5 CURRENCY BILLIONS NOV. I I I I I I I I I I I I 15 29 12 26 10 24 7 21 I 15 29 13 27 10 24 8 22 2 <6 30 14 28 11 25 9 23 1980 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING; DECEMBER 9, 1981 1/ RATIO OF MONEY STOCK (MIA) OR (M1B) TO ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE 2/ CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.6 RELEASE. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS DEMAND DEPOSIT COMPONENT OF MONEY STOCK (MIA) AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 280 r----------- ----------------- BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ------ I---------- 1---------- 3 280 SIUUQNS NOV. 233.8 233.8 235.5 233.3 237.8 235.4 I I I I LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: DECEMBER 9, 1981 CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.6 RELEASE. DEMAND DEPOSIT COMPONENT OF MONEY STOCK ( Ml A ) COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 12/10/80 3/11/81 5/6/81 6/10/81 7/8/81 8/12/81 9/9/81 10/7/81 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 5/ 6/81 6/10/81 7/ 8/81 8/12/81 9/ 9/81 10/ 7/81 11/11/81 12/ 9/81 -23.8 -22.0 -20. 1 -18.2 -17.2 -15.9 -14.7 -13. 1 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis -9.6 -8.8 -8. 1 -8. 1 -7.3 -6.8 -5.3 -10.9 -9.0 -8.9 -7.6 -6.9 -5.0 -5.9 -6.7 -5.5 -5.1 -3.1 -6.8 -5.3 -4.8 -2.5 -5.1 -4.5 -1.5 -2.7 0.7 1.7 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 9 10 SAVINGS PLUS SMALL TIME DEPOSITS ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 515 BILLIONS NOV. DEC. 510 505.0 507.5 508.9 510. 1 509.7 510.7 505 500 I I II JAN FEB LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING; DECEMBER 9, 1981 CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS’ H.6 RELEASE. TIME DEPOSITS ISSUED IN DENOMINATIONS OF LESS THAN $100,000. SAV1NGS PLUS SMALL TIME DEPOSITS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE 12/10/80 3/11/81 5/6/81 6/10/81 3.6 4.2 4. 1 4.9 5.4 5.3 6.3 6.9 4.8 4.6 5.6 6.3 6. 1 7.3 8.0 5.4 6.8 7.5 6.9 8.4 9. 1 6.8 7.8 7.0 8.8 9.6 AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 7/8/81 8/12/81 9/9/81 10/7/81 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 5/ 6/81 6/10/81 7/ 8/81 8/12/81 9/ 9/81 10/ 7/81 11/11/81 12/ 9/81 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 9.6 8.0 9.9 10.7 7.2 10. 1 11.1 10.2 1 1.5 14.8 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS r BORROWINGS FROM FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4.0 i----------- 1---------- 1-----1981 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS —---------- -----------4.0 MILL IONS — DEC. OCT NOV 1980 DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: DECEMBER 16, JUN JUL 1981 AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 1981 BUSINESS LOANS u (COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL) WEEKLY REPORTING LARGE COMMERCIAL BANKS 2/ SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BY THIS BANK BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 196 _ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES _ OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF _ THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING DECEMBER 9, 1981 FROM _ THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING: “OCT. — SEP. ~ AUG. -JUL. ~ JUN. — MAR. — DEC. 7, 9, 12, 8, 10, 11, 10, 1981 1981 1981 1981 1981 1981 1980 10.9 16.0 1 I .0 MILUQNS NOV. 4 187,565 188,507 DEC. 2 190,731 191,112 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 15 29 13 27 !0 24 1981 1980 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: DECEMBER 9, 1981 1/ BUSINESS LOANS INCLUDE BANKERS’ ACCEPTANCES AND COMMERCIAL PAPER. 2/ BANKS WITH DOMESTIC ASSETS OF 1750 MILLION OR MORE http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 11 12 LARGE TIME DEPOSITS ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS I I I I LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: DECEMBER 9, 1981 CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.6 RELEASE. TIME DEPOSITS ISSUED IN DENOMINATIONS OF «100,000 OR MORE. PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 1