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FirVAMCZIXKL.

^Zt E t*j^

o/ir/i

Week ending: December 13, 1978

LIBRARY
DEC 2 S 1979
Growth in the money stock (Ml) has slowed considerably
iti recent weeks.
In the two-month period from the four weeks
ending October 4 to the four weeks ending December 6, the money
stock decreased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent, down sharply
from its nearly 12 percent rate of growth during the previous
two-month period.
Accompanying this decline in the rate of
growth in Ml over the past two months has been a rapid increase
in total time deposits. The growth of time deposits has occurred
m large-denomination certificates of deposits (CDs) and certain
components of net time deposits.
For a given growth of the
monetary base, this rapid growth of time deposits means that more
reserves must be used to support time deposits and less reserves
are available to support growth of demand deposits.
Growth in CDs has accelerated sharply over the past two
months. Although the interest rate on CDs has risen nearly 160
basis points since October 6, the amount of CDs issued by large
commercial banks has increased by $8.0 billion on a seasonally
adjusted basis. In comparison, CDs rose by only $1.0 billion
over the previous two-month period, during which the interest
rate on CDs rose by about one percentage point.
P1® ®rowP?
.tlme deposits has been maintained,
despite about a $2.7 billion drop in savings deposits, by
issuance of money market time deposits and growth of ATS
accounts
In the two-month period from July 26 to September 27
money market time deposits increased by slightly more than $4 2
billion.
During the one-month period from September 27 to
October 25 (the latest survey data available), MMTDs increased by
nearly $4.2 billion.
}
.
November 1 introduction of automatic transfer
service (ATS) between checking (demand deposit) and savings
n
i , a discernible impact on ueposit; ana net vines
\ vutvtvxug vucuiauu the growth of s a time
accounts also had
deposits
Any shifting of demand deposits into savings deposits
will result in an increase in.the growth in net time deposits and
a decrease in the growth of Ml, for a given growth of the
monetary base. The survey data for November 29 showed that the
ATS accounts at commercial banks totalled about $2 billion
of
which somewhat more than 50% had come from demand deposits
’


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Released: December 15, 1978

2

MONETARY BASE

AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BY THIS BANK

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
146

NOV,
HI .6
HI .8
142.0
141.8

136
134

!32

130

1 28

5 19

2

IB 30 14 26 II

DEC

23

JAN

0 22

8 22

3 18

3 12 31

FEB

14 ZB 12 ZB

8 23

1977

6 20

4 IS

SEP

JUN JUL
1978

OCT

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING. DECEMBER 13, 1978
THE MONETARY BASE CONSISTS OF MEMBER BANK RESERVES AT THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS AND CURRENCY
IN CIRCULATION (CURRENCY HELD BY THE PUBLIC AND IN THE VAULTS OF COkftERCIAL BANKS). ADJUSTED
FOR RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO CHANGES AND SHIFTS IN THE SAME TYPE OF DEPOSITS BETWEEN BANKS
WHERE DIFFERENT RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIOS APPLY. THE MAJOR SOURCES OF THE MONETARY BASE ARE
FEDERAL RESERVE CREDIT AND THE GOLD STOCK. DATA ARE COMPUTED BY THIS BAfK. A DETAILED DE­
SCRIPTION OF THE MONETARY BASE IS AVAILABLE FROM THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS.

MONETARY BASE
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE

AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING.

12/14/77

3/15/78

3/10/78

6/14/78

7/12/78

8/18/78

9.4
9.3
9,8
9.3
9.3
10.0
9.7
9.5

8.7
9.8
9.0
8.9
10.0
9.7
9.4

10.8
9. 1
9. 1
10.5
10.0
9.5

9.3
9.2
1 1.0
10.2
9.7

7.4
10.3
9.6
9.0

12.9
10.9
9.9

9/13/78 10/11/78

TO THE AVERAGE
OF FOUR WEEKS
ENDING.
5/10/78
6/14/78
7/12/78
8/16/78
9/13/78
10/11/78
11/15/78
12/13/78


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

11.8
10.2

7.2

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

MULTIPLIER^
ADJUSTED FEDERAL RESERVE CRED I T */
AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

RATIO

RATIO
2.9

2 9

MULTI FLIER
[\

,

'V >

\/

1978
NOV .

RATH i
|

2.56C
l:Ii
2.531

1:131
Llll Inn Lux

DEC

tux

i i

n

in

1 ll.

1 1 1

1 1 LL 111

Mil

1 1 1 -LLL J_U 1

1 1 1

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDINGi DECEMBER 6. 1978
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
126

COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES
---- OF CHANGE. AVERAGE OF
the four

124

Weeks ewing

- DECEMBER 13, 1978 FROM
_ THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING.
_
-

OCT.
SEP.
- AUG.
_
JUL.
JUN.
—
■ MAR.
DEC.

11,
13,
16,
12,
14,
15,
14,

1978
1978
1978
1978
1978
1978
1977

122

ADJUSTED FEDERAL RESERVE CREDIT

9.5
12.7
11.5
9.9
10.8
10.5

120
I 18

ISIS

BILLIONS

■I 11 I 1 1 I I 1 1 I I
9 19

2 16 90 14 28 11 29

DEC

JAN

8 22

8 22

9 19

3 17 91

9 29

8 20

4 18

SEP

FEB

M 28 12 28

OCT

1

19 29 19 27

1977
LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING. DECEMBER 13, 1978
1/ RATIO OF MONEY STOCK (Ml 1 / MONETARY BASE.

2/ FEI
DEPOSITS AT FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS FROM THIS SERIES. AND ADJUSTING THE SERIES FOR RE­
SERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO CHANGES AND SHIFTS IN THE SAME TYPE OF DEPOSITS BETWEEN BAWS
WHERE DIFFERENT RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIOS APPLY. DATA ARE COMPUTED BY THIS BANK.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

3

4

MONEY STOCK PLUS NET TIME DEPOSITS (M2)
AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
880 rz------- 1------------,-----

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
----- ------------ ------- zn 880

BILLIONS'

— DEC.

5

19

868.2
870.9
870.9
870. 1
869.2
872. 1

2 16 30 14 28

DEC

II 23

JAN

8 22

8 22

5 19

3 IT 51

FEB

M 28 12 28

JUN

9 23

8 20

4

SEP

JUL

OCT

)8~

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDINGi DECEMBER 6, 197B
CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS* H.6 RELEASE.

MONEY STOCK PLUS NET TIME DEPOSITS ( M2 )
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
12/7/77

3/8/78

5/3/78

6/7/78

7.9
7.9
7.8
7.8
8.3
8.6
8.3
7.9

8.9
8.4
8.3
9.0
9.3
8.9
S.3

7.4
7.6
8.7
9.2
8.7
8.0

7.5
9. 1
9.6
8. S
8.0

AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDINGi
7/5/78

8/9/78

10. 1
10.5
9.3
8.2

12.2
9.9
8.3

9/0/78

10/4/78

TO THE AVERAGE
OF FOUR WEEKS
ENDINGi
5/
0/
7/
8/
9/
10/
11/
12/

3/78
7/78
5/78
9/78
0/78
4/78
8/78
6/78


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

,

8.6
6.9

5. 1

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

MONEY STOCK (Ml)
AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS
365

— NOV.
.
362.3
361.4
358.7
— DEC

I I I I
S 22
JAN

3 IB

3 IT 31

H 28 12 26

9 23

6 20

FEB

LATEST OATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: DECEMBER 8, 1978
CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS* H.6 RELEASE.
THE MONEY STOCK CONSISTS OF DEMAND DEPOSITS PLUS CURRENCY AND COIN HELD BY THE NONBANK PUBLIC.

MONEY STOCK (Ml )
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
2/7/77

3/8/78

AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING:

5/3/78

6/7/78

7/5/78

6.6
5.5
7.2
7.9
6.8
5. 1

4.9
7.4
8.2
6.9
4.8

7.8
8.8
6.9
4.5

8/9/78

9/6/78

10/4/78

6.1
2.3

-1.4

TO THE AVERAGE
OF FOUR WEEKS
ENDING:
5/
6/
7/
8/
9/
10/
11/
12/

3/78
7/78
5/78
9/78
6/78
4/78
8/78
6/78


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

9.8
9.2
8.8

8.0
8.6
8,8
8. 1
7.0

11.8
10.6
8.9
9.6
9. S
8.7
7. 1

12. 1
8.3
4.7

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE SAW OF ST. LOUIS

5

6

YIELDS ON SELECTED SECURITIES
AVERAGES OF DAILY RATES ENDED FRIDAY

PERCENT
12.0
11.5
1 1.0
10.5
10.0
9.5
9.0

CORPORATE

BONDS
8.5
8.0

7.5
90 DAY CD'S)
7.0
COMMERCIAL PAPER

6.5

MUNICIPAL

6.0

5.5
5.0
I I I I
7 21

4 18

OCT

NOV

2 16 SO 15 27 10 24 10 24

JAN

FEB

7 21

9 10

APR

MAY

2 16 90 14

JUL

II 23

6 22

AUG

6 20

5 17

OCT

NOV

1

15 20

LATEST DATA PLOTTED ARE AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE FOR THE WEEK ENDING. DECEMBER 15, 1978

90 DAY
CD'S mat

1978
OCT.

6
13
20
27
NOV.
3
10
17
24
DEC.
1
6

15 X
22
29

PRIME
COftAIERCI AL
PAPER
4-6 MONTH

PRIME
BANKERS'
ACCEPTANCES

CORPORATE
Aaa BONDS

MUNICIPAL
BONDS kk

8.95
9. 15
9.26
9.64
10. 10
10.77
10.84
10.59
10.66
10.64
10.53

8.75
8.97
9.07
9.19
9.68
10.27
10.38
10.22
10.28
10.32
10.36

8.89
9.06
9.33
9.59
10.46
10.63
10.47
10.40
10.52
10.38
10.35

8.81
8.85
8.88
8.94
9.04
9.06
9.02
9.00
9.04
9.06
9,10

6.07
6.10
6.14
6.21
6.22
6.17
6. 1 1
6.16
6.29
6.29
N.A.

* AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE.
ME BOND BUYER’S AVERAGE INDEX OF 20 MUNICIPAL BONDS, THURSDAY DATA.
M* SEVEN-DAY AVERAGES OF SECONDARY MARKET RATES FOR THE WEEK ENDING WEDNESDAY TWO DAYS
EARLIER THAN DATES SHOWN. CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.9 RELEASE.
N.A. - NOT AVAILABLE


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

0

SELECTED

INTEREST RATES

AVERAGES OF DAILY RATES ENDED FRIDAY

PERCENT

PERCENT

3-5 YEAR
TREASURY SECURITIES

FEDERAL FUNDS RATE

DISCOUNT RATE

;h TR

4 1®

OCT

NOV

2 16 SO IS 27 10 24 10 24

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

7 21

5 18

APR

MAY

2 16 50 14 2® 11 25

1977

JUN

JUL

AUG

8 22

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

,978

LATEST DATA PLOTTED ARE AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE FOR THE WEEK ENDING. DECEMBER 15. 1978

1976
OCT.

6
13
20
27
MOV.
3
10
17
24
DEC.
1
8
15 X
22
29

FEDERAL
FUNDSMk

3-MONTH
TREASURY
BILL

©-MONTH
TREASURY
BILL MB®

1-YEAR
TREASURY
BILL

3-5 YEAR
TREASURY
SECURITIES

LONG-TERM
TREASURY
SECURITIES

8.85
8.71
8.78
9.24
9.29
9.77
9.68
9.68
9.85
9.87
9.79

8.14
7.98
7.89
7.70
8.73
8.79
8.14
8.63
8.98
8.93
8.89

8.38
8.42
8.56
6.61
8.98
9.42
9.29
9.00
9.33
9.22
9.26

8.23
8.28
8.46
8.53
9.17
9.32
9.08
9.12
9.29
9.32
9.24

8.48
8.47
8.56
8.69
9.05
9.04
8.93
8.87
9.01
9.02
9.09

8.55

8.72
8.73
8.66
8.75
8.78

* AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE.
** SEVEN-DAY AVERAGES FOR WEEK ENDING WEDNESDAY TWO DAYS EARLIER THAN DATE SHOWN.
___ CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS* H.9 RELEASE.
WBI NEW ISSUE RATE
m# Biff"^Eui^oIscouSTaisC0“‘UTED " TME FE0EfiAl **»* BAHC OF ST. LOUIS.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BAMC OF ST. LOUIS

7

8

NET TIME DEPOSITS
ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS
AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

1313.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
520

B1LUQNS

515

507. 1

— DEC.

509.5
510.7
510.5
511.5

510
505
500
495
490
485
480
475
470
465
460

JAN

FEB

1977

1978

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING. DECEMBER 6, 1978
CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS* H.6 RELEASE.
* NET TIME DEPOSITS ARE DEFINED AS. SAVINGS DEPOSITS, TIME DE. OSITS OPEN ACCOUNT PLUS TIME
CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT OTHER THAN NEGOTIABLE TIME CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT ISSUED IN
DENOMINATIONS OF 8100,000 OR MORE BY LARGE WEEKLY REPORTING COMMERCIAL BANKS.

NET TIME DEPOSITS
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING,
12/7/77

3/8/78

6.6
6.9
7.0
7.6
8. 1
8.4
8.5
8.7

6.7
6.8
7.8
8.5
8.9
9.0
9.2

5/3/78

6/7/78

7/5/78

8/9/7B

9/6/78

10/4/78

7.9
9. 1
9.9
10.2
10. 1
10. 1

9.4
10.4
10.7
10.5
10.4

11.9
1 1.8
1 1.2
1 1.0

12.2
11.2
11.0

10.5
10.4

9.9

TO THE AVERAGE
OF FOUR WEEKS
ENDING.
5/
6/
7/
8/
9/
10/
11/
12/

3/78
7/78
5/78
9/78
6/78
4/78
8/78
6/78


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

DEMAND DEPOSIT COMPONENT OF MONEY STOCK
AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
275 --------- 1------------1-----

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
----- ------------ ---------- 275

billions?

265.9
262.4
263.5

5 19

2

IS SO 14 28 11

DEC

23

JAN

8 22

8 22

3 19

3 IT 31

FEB

14 28 12 26

9 23

6 20

4 18

I

13 29 13 27

JUN JUL
1978

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING. DECEMBER 8r 1978
CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS’ H.8 RELEASE.

DEMAND DEPOS1T COMPONENT OF MONEY STOCK
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
12/7/77

3/8/78

AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDINGi

5/3/78

8/7/78

7/5/78

5.3
4.2
6.0
6.9
5.5
3.2

4. 1
6.6
7.6
5.7
3.0

6.8
8. 1
5.6
2.4

8/9/78

9/6/78

10/4/78

11.7
6.9
2.4

4.5
-0.6

-5.3

TO THE AVERAGE
OF FOUR WEEKS
ENDING.
5/
8/
7/
8/
9/
10/
11/
12/

3/78
7/78
5/78
9/78
8/78
4/78
8/78
6/78

9.7
8.7
8.4
7,5
8.0
8.3
7.3
5.8


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

12.5
10.9
9.0
9.5
9.7
8.2
6.0

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

9

10

CURRENCY COMPONENT
OF MONEY STOCK
AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

BILLIONS OF OOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

100
BILLIONS
NOV.

96.5
96.6
97.2

DEC.
96

—

3

19

22

2 16 30 H 28 II 23

DEC

JAN

8 22

3 19

3 IT 31

M 28 12 26

JUN

FEB

JUL

9 23

SEP

OCT

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDINGt DECEMBER 8, 1978
CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.6 RELEASE.

CURRENCY
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
12/7/77

3/8/78

5/3/78

10.6
9.4
8.9
9.5
10.0
10.0
10.0

10.6
9.2
10. 1
10.7
10.6
10.5

6/7/78

AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDINGi
7/5/78

8/9/78

9/6/78

9.7
10.7
10.6
10.5

13.2
12.1
11.5

11.5
11.0

10/4/78

TO THE AVERAGE
OF FOUR WEEKS
ENDING.
5/
6/
7/
8/
9/
10/
11/
12/

3/78
7/78
5/78
9/78
6/78
A/78
8/78
8/78

9.9
10.7
10. 1
9.6
10.0
10.3
10.3
10.2


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

6.4
8.5
9.6
9.7
9.7

10. 1

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

BORROWINGS FROM FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS
ALL MEMBER BANKS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
15 r--------.------------.-----

IN THE NATION

AVtKAGtS UF UAILY FIGURES

ILL IONS OF DOLLARS
—------------ ------- -3 3.5

13ZJ0L MILLIONS

5 10

2 16 50 14 26 11 23

OEC

JAN

6 22

6 22

5 10

5 12 51

H 28 12 26

0 23

6 20

4 16

SEP

FEB

OCT

I

IS 28 13 27

LATEST OATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDINGi DECEMBER 13, 1978

BUSINESS LOANS
( COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL )

WEEKLY REPORTING LARGE COMMERCIAL BANKS

SLASUNALLY AUJUSTED

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

i«« ------»------- 1—
14?
,.n
140
138
130
I 36
134

—----------- ---------

COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES
—OF CHANGE. AVERAGE OF
_ THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING
DECEMBER 6, 1978 FROM
—THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING.
— °°T
SEp
6,
“ AUG.
9,
— JUL.
_ JUN. . ,
MAR. 8,
DEC. 7,

1978
1978
____
1978
1977

13.7
14.1

139,878

5 19

50 14 26 11 23

8 22

8 22

5 19

3 17 31

H 28 12 26

9 23

139,876
1 1I I I I I I I I I I I I
6 20

1

15 28 13 27

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK EfDING. DECEMBER


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

11

i««

12
CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT
LARGE COMMERCIAL BANKS
WEDNESDAY FIGURES
NUT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
.00

ILL IONS OF DOLLARS

----------- ,-------------- 1------

I I I I
DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING. DECEMBER 6,

1978

.

CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS* H.8 RELEASE.
NEGOTIABLE TIME CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT ISSUED IN DENOMINATIONS OF *100,000 OR MORE BY LARGE
WEEKLY REPORTING COt*CRCIAL BANKS.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS


Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, One Federal Reserve Bank Plaza, St. Louis, MO 63102