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Week ending: August 18, 1982
LIBRARY

MJG 2 4 138?
Short-term interest rates have declined since late February
after increasing significantly from late 1981, and have fallen
dramatically during the past several weeks. Moreover, most short-term
interest rates are currently at their lowest weekly-average levels in
about two years.
It is commonly argued that interest rates and the growth of
money (Ml) are negatively related; however, data since late 1981
indicate that this has not been the case. For example, from the four
weeks ending November 18, 1981, to the four weeks ending February 24,
1982, Ml grew at nearly an 11 percent rate, yet short-term rates
increased substantially. Similarly, money growth has been slow since
late February, while short-term interest rates have trended downward.
Movements in short-term interest rates appear to be more
closely linked to changes in credit demand. For example, the rise in
interest rates that occurred during late 1981 and early 1982 was
coincident with an acceleration in business loan demand at large, weekly
reporting banks. Interest rates remained relatively constant from late
February to early June as credit demand eased somewhat. The most
recent sharp decline in interest rates has been associated with a marked
deceleration in the growth of business loan demand.

Growth Rates of Business Loans
and Changes in the 90-Day CD Rate

Week ending
11/18/81 - 2/24/82
2/24/82 - 6/09/82
6/09/82 - 8/11/82

!/
2/

Business loans
at large weekly
reporting banks 1/
22.8 %
20.1
8.4

Ml 1/
10.9 %
4.3
-0.8

Changes in
90-day
CD rate 2/
206
-20
-220

Compounded annual rates of change of seasonally adjusted data.
Changes in basis points for data ending two days after date shown.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Released: August 20, 1982

2
ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE
AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BY THIS BANK

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
182

BILLIONS
— JUL.

177.9
178.6
178. 1
178.3
179.5
179.7

4

OCT

18

2

16 30 13 27

NOV

JAN

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: AUGUST 18,

10 24

10 24

FEB

7 21

5

19

2

16 30 14 28

11

25

APR
MAY
1982

1982

THE ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE CONSISTS OF: ( 1 ) RESERVE ACCOUNTS OF FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AT
FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS, (2) CURRENCY IN CIRCULATION I CURRENCY HELD BY THE PUBLIC AND IN THE
VAULTS OF ALL DEPOSITORY INSTITUTIONS), AND (3) AN ADJUSTMENT FOR RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO
CHANGES.
THE MAJOR SOURCE OF THE ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE IS FEDERAL RESERVE CREDIT.
DATA
ARE COMPUTED BY THIS BANK.
A DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE IS AVAIL­
ABLE FROM THIS BANK.

ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE,

AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING:

8/19/81

11/18/81

1/20/82

2/17/82

3/17/82

4/21/82

5/19/82

6/16/82

4. 1
5.3
5.5
5.8
6.2
6.9
6.3
6.4

10.9
10.0
9.4
9.5
10. 1
8.8
8.6

9.5
8.7
9.0
10.0
8.2
8.0

7.2
8. 1
9.5
7.6
7.4

8.6
10.3
7.7
7.5

12.1
7.8
7.5

6.7
6.8

3.6

TO THE AVERAGE
OF FOUR WEEKS
ENDING:
1/20/82
2/17/82
3/17/82
4/21/82
5/19/82
6/16/82
7/21/82
8/18/82


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

ADJUSTED RESERVES
AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS

of dollars

BILLIONS

AUG.

49.5
49.8
49.2
49.0
50.3

I I I I
JAN
LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: AUGUST II,

FEB

1982

ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE (RESERVE ACCOUNTS OF FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AT FEDERAL RESERVE
BANKS PLUS CURRENCY IN CIRCULATION) LESS CURRENCY HELD BY THE NONBANK PUBLIC.

ADJUSTED RESERVES
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE,
8/12/81

11/11/81

-2.5
1.7
4.0
3. 1
4.5
4.6
3.6
4.2

11.6
13.7
9.9
1 1 .0
10.2
8. 1
8.4

1/13/82

AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING:

2/10/82

3/10/82

4/14/82

5/12/82

6/9/82

7.4
10.4
9.2
6.0
6.8

6. 1
5.9
3.0
4.4

1 1.2
5.0
6.4

0.0
3.3

2.4

TO THE AVERAGE
OF FOUR WEEKS
ENDING:
1/13/82
2/10/82
3/10/82
4/14/82
5/12/82
6/ 9/82
7/14/82
8/11/82


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

24.3
13.4
14.3
12.5
9. 1
9.4

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

3

4
MONEY STOCK ( Ml )

AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
470 r---------1------------- 1------

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
-------- ------------------- -j 470

BILLIONS

AUG.

JUN

451 .9
451 .7
450.5
451.3
453.5
453.4

I I I I

I I I I

JUL

SEP
1981

I I I I
OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: AUGUST II.

FEB

APR
MAY
1982

JUN

JUL

AUG

1982

CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.6 RELEASE.
Ml CONSISTS OF CURRENCY HELD BY THE NONBANK PUBLIC PLUS COMMERCIAL BANK DEMAND DEPOSITS
HELD BY THE NONBANK PUBLIC (EXCLUDING THOSE HELD BY FOREIGN BANKS AND OFFICIAL INSTITUTIONS)
AND OTHER CHECKABLE DEPOSITS OF ALL DEPOSITORY INSTITUTIONS PLUS TRAVELERS' CHECKS.

MONEY STOCK ( Ml )
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE,

AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING:

8/12/81

11 /I 1/81

1/13/82

2/10/82

3/10/82

8.6
8.6
7.3
7.0
6.8
6.5
5.0
5.2

13.4
9.8
8.8
8.2
7.5
5.3
5.6

3.9
4.4
4.6
4.3
2. 1
2.8

2.3
3.3
3.2
0.8
1.8

5.3
4.6
1.3
2.4

4/14/82

5/12/82

6/9/82

TO THE AVERAGE
OF FOUR WEEKS
ENDING:
1/13/82
2/10/82
3/10/82
4/14/82
5/12/82
6/ 9/82
7/14/82
8/11/82


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

4.3
-0.2
1.6

-2.5
0.4

-0.8

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

MONEY MULTIPLIER 1/
CURRENCY COMPONENT OF MONEY STOCK ^
AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
RATIO

AUG.
Ml MULTIPLIER

I I I I
LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: AUGUST II,
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
132
1
1

1982
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
132

1

“

COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RAT ES
OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF
-----THE FOUR l^EEKS END 1 NC
AUGUST 11. 1982 FROM
- THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING
—JUN.
MAY
- APR.
MAR.
-

NO v.
AU G.

9,
12,
M,
10,

1982
1982
1982
1982

5.5
7.8
8.5
8.5

11!

1981
1981

8.4
7.0

12,

130

~

128

7
CURRENCY
-

/V

-

-

-

i982.
JUL .

’
;~i 11
JUN

mi
1111
15 29 Y2 26

JUL

AUG

-

1111

I..-LL J..I..I

SEP
1981

OCT

NOV

1 1

u

-LI 1

16 30

DEC

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: AUGUST II,

13 27

JAN

-.1 1 1 I

10 24

FEB

jj.i

AUC

NS

~
_

111:1
111:1

■

_
^

1 i i i i 1 i i i 1 i i i;
III,

10 24

7

MAR

APR
MAY
1982

21

B IU.IO

7 129.0
14
128.4
1b

19

2

16 30

JUN

14

JUL

28

11

25

AUG

1982

1/ RATIO OF MONEY STOCK (Ml ) TO ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE
2/ CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.6 RELEASE


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

5

6
YIELDS ON SELECTED SECURITIES
AVERAGES OF DAILY RATES ENDED FRIDAY

PERCENT

PERCENT

22.0
21.0
20.0

19.0

19.0
90 DAY CD'S

18.0
PRIME BANK
LOAN RATE

17.0

16.0

15.0

14.0

CORPORATE
Aaa BONDS

13.0
MUNICIPAL
BONDS**

12.0

COMMERCIAL
PAPER

5 19

3 17 31

14 28 II 25

9 23

6 20
NOV

4 18
DEC

1

15 29 12 26 12 26
FEB
MAR

9 23

1961

7 21

4 18

2 16 30 13 27

1982

LATEST DATA PLOTTED ARE AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE FOR THE WEEK ENDING: AUGUST 20,

1982
JUNE

4
1 1
18
25
JULY
2
9
16
23
30
AUG.
6
13
20 &
27

1982

90 DAY
CD'S

PRIME
COMMERC1AL
PAPER ***

PRIME
BANKERS'
ACCEPTANCES

CORPORATE
Aaa BONDS

CORPORATE
Baa BONDS

MUNICIPAL
BONOS **

13.72
13.83
14.56
15.13
15.21
14.80
13.96
12.58
12.01
11.43
11.63
9.82

13. 15
13.39
13.98
14.55
14.68
14.24
13.46
12.05
12.01
11.33
11.50
9.76

13.29
13.46
14.16
14.65
14.73
14.15
13.50
12.03
1 1 .71
11.23
11.23
9.73

14.50
14.62
14.79
15. 10
15.07
14.96
14.65
14.32
14.39
14.22
14.14
13.60

16.80
16.85
16.92
17.03
16.95
16.88
16.82
16.70
16.78
16.69
16.71
16.38

12.13
12.40
12.63
12.62
12.58
12.47
12.36
12.01
11.97
11.87
11.86
N.A.

M AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE.
K* BOND BUYER'S AVERAGE INDEX OF 20 MUNICIPAL BONDS, THURSDAY DATA.
*«ft DATA ARE 4-MONTH COMMERCIAL PAPER RATES.
NiA. - NOT AVAILABLE


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

SELECTED

INTEREST RATES

AVERAGES OF DAILY RATES ENDED FRIDAY

PERCENT

PERCENT
21.0

21.0

19.0

18.0

17.0
5-YEAR
TREASURY SECURITIES
16.0

FEDERAL FUNDS RATE
15.0

15.0

14.0

13.0
Vy
12.0

12.0

DISCOUNT
RATE

I 1 .0
3-MONTH
TREASURY BILL

10.0
9.0

8.0
I I I I
4

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP
1981

OCT

NOV

18

DEC

1

15 29

JAN

12 26 12 26

FEB

MAR

9 23

7 21

APR
MAY
1982

4 18
JUN

2JUL
16 30

LATEST DATA PLOTTED ARE AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE FOR THE WEEK ENDING-. AUGUST 20,

1982
JUNE

4
1 1
18
25
JULY
2
9
16
23
30
AUG.
6
13
20 *
27

FEDERAL
FUNDS XX

3-MONTH
TREASURY
BILL

6-MONTH
TREASURY
B 1LL XXX

13.43
13.60
14.24
14. 17
14.81
14.47
13. 18
12.14
11.02
11.15
10.90
10.11

12.09
12.06
12.46
12.88
12.81
12.23
1 1.71
10.64
10.51
9.80
9.70
8.08

11.59
12. 12
12.50
13.03
13.42
12.98
11.97
11.44
11.38
10.67
10.94
9.82

1 -YEAR
TREASURY
BILL
12.09
12.20
12.68
13.00
12.86
12.50
12.06
11.29
11.50
11.13
11.06
9.85

5-YEAR
TREASURY
SECURITIES
13.98
14.04
14.48
14.90
14.73
14.48
14. 10
13.66
13.89
13.62
13.59
12.69

13 27
AUG

1982

LONG-TERM
TREASURY
SECUR1T1ES
13.49
13.51
13.83
14.03
13.85
13.68
13.40
13.11
13.30
13.08
13.02
12.25

* AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE.
** SEVEN-DAY AVERAGES FOR WEEK ENDING WEDNESDAY TWO DAYS EARLIER THAN DATE SHOWN.
CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS’ H.I5 RELEASE.
*** NEW ISSUE RATE
RATES ON LONG-TERM TREASURY SECURITIES ARE COMPUTED BY THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS.
TREASURY BILL YIELDS ON DISCOUNT BASIS.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

7

8
TOTAL CHECKABLE DEPOSITS^
1

r-

1 1

BILL IONS
318. 5
318. 9
317. 3
318. 0
319. 8

TTTT'

M
A \
A
^
' A____ ' VJ l tA.

i

1

\

A

_

r-

TTTT TTTT

1

PTTr II

V

/\

a \j A- A

1

^

V

IN I
1 1

1 1

11

II

=

TTTT

I llll

1982
Z_ JUL.
7
_
14
21
28
- AUG. 4

1

-

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
335

1

1

AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

TTTT

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
335

ILLL

Mil
1 1 1 .i-L-Ll..
23
I 15 29 12 26

JUL

AUG

i, 11 J_LL 1111
7 21

4 IS

SEP
1981

2

111 _LJ_L 1111 _LLL 111

16 30

DEC

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: AUGUST 11,

13 27

JAN

10 24

FEB

10 24

MAR

7 21

5

11.11

19

APR
MAY
1982

2

;
111 -U-L

16 30 14 28

JUN

JUL

II

25

AUG

1982

1/ DEMAND DEPOSITS PLUS OTHER CHECKABLE DEPOSITS AT ALL DEPOSITORY INSTITUTIONS

TOTAL CHECKABLE DEPOSITS
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING:
8/12/81

11/11/81

9.6
9.7
7.9
7.3
6.9
6. 1
4.2
4.5

15.0
10.5
8.9
8.0
6.8
4.0
4.4

1/13/82

2/10/82

3/10/82

4/14/82

5/12/82

6/9/82

3.5
2.2
-1.8
0.0

1.2
-3.8
-1.0

-6.8
-2.3

-3.0

TO THE AVERAGE
OF FOUR WEEKS
ENDING:
1/13/82
2/10/82
3/10/82
4/14/82
5/12/82
6/ 9/82
7/14/82
8/11/82


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

3.3
3.4
3.4
2.6
-0.3
0.9

0.5
1.4
0.9
-2.1
-0.5

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

TOTAL TIME DEPOSITS^
ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS
AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
860

BILLIONS

850

828.3
832.2
833. I

840
830

840.2
841.1

820
810
800
790
780
770
760
750
740
730
720
710

OCT

NOV

JAN

FEB

APR
MAY
198J

1981
LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: AUGUST II,

1982

1/ SAVINGS DEPOSITS PLUS SMALL TIME DEPOSITS PLUS LARGE TIME DEPOSITS

TOTAL TIME DEPOSITS
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING:
8/12/81

11/11/81

1/13/82

2/10/82

3/10/82

4/14/82

5/12/82

5.9
6.8
8.5
10.3
1 1 .0
1 1 .6
12.3
12.9

4.8
8.2
11.2
12.2
12.8
13.6
14.3

16.0
18.3
18.1
17.9
18.0
18.3

21.2
20. 1
19.4
19.2
19.3

19.9
19. 1
18.9
19. 1

17.3
17.8
18.3

17.9
18.6

6/9/82

TO THE AVERAGE
OF FOUR WEEKS
ENDING:
1/13/82
2/10/82
3/10/82
4/14/82
5/12/82
6/ 9/82
7/14/82
8/11/82


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

19.3

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

9

10
SMALL TIME DEPOSITS^
COMMERCIAL BANK SAVINGS DEPOSITS
AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
420 E--------1------------- 1---------- 1------------- —
410
400
390
380
370

=

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
420
-

COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RA7 ES
OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF
THE FOUR WEEKS END 1NC
AUGUST 11, 1982 FROM
THE FOUR WEEKS END 1NC

= MA Y
= AP R.
— MA R.
= FE B.
NO V.
- AU G.

12,
14,
10,
10,
11,
12,

1982
1982
1982
1982
1981
1981

24.2
25.2
26.4
26.0
18.9
21.1

-

E
Z

400
390

=
SMALL TIME

5EP0S TS

Z
E

360
1

z

Z

=

350

380
370
360
350

340

340
E

J_982

330

JUL .
320
E

AUG .

310
“ill
0

410

1 1 1 1

1 1 1

1 1 1 1 _LLL

111

1111

111 _LI.I

1 1 1 1

1 1 1 _LLLl

7
14
21
28
4
11

B LL 10 NS

=

397.0
399.5
401.5
403.5
405.8
406.5

=
z
—
=
=
—

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

330
320
310

<’

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: AUGUST II,
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
185
1982

BILLIONS
58.3
57! 4
56! 8
56! 4
55! 9
56.0

SAVINGS DEPOSITS

COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES
OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF
THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING
AUGUST 11, 1982 FROM
THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING:
JUN.
MAY
APR.
MAR.
FEB.
NOV.
AUG.
I I I I I I

9,
12,
14,
10,
10,
II,
12,
I I I

150
145

1982 -14.5
1982 -9.8
1982 -8.1
1982 -4.5
1982 -3.5
1981
0.7
1981
-4.1
I I I I I I I I I I 1 I

140
135
130

2

16 30 13 27

JAN
LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: AUGUST II,

10 24

FEB

10 24

7 21

APR

MAY

1982

1/ COMMERCIAL BANK TIME DEPOSITS ISSUED IN DENOMINATIONS OF LESS THAN *100,000.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

BORROWINGS FROM FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS
AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1982
“ JUL.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
4.5

MILLION?
14

4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5

1.0
0.5
3

17

1

15 29

12 26

9 23

7 21

OCT

2

16 30

13 27

10 24

10 24

7 21

5 19

2

16 30

14 28 II

25

NOV

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: AUGUST 18,

1982

BUSINESS LOANS17
( COMMERCIAL AND

INDUSTRIAL )

WEEKLY REPORTING LARGE COMMERCIAL BANKS 2/
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BY THIS BANK

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

220
216

212
208
204
200

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

-------1----------1--------1----------1------= COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES

=

Z THE FOUR WEEKS' END 1NG
- AUGUST II. 1982 FROM
END 1NG

z

Z_ JUN. 9,
- MAY 12,
Z APR. 14,
- MAR. 10,
Z FEB. 10,
- NOV. 11,

1982
1982
1982
1982
1982
1981

220
216

212

8.4
14.3
16.6
16.9
16.8
17.8
15.3

E

S'

208

z
204

E

200

z
z

_
188
184
180

E

E

z

E

E

z

176
172

MILLIONS

r

180

7

-

176

14

212,584
213,158

28
4
1 1

213,058
212,221
213,237

-

1982

’ JUL.

z
EE

AUG.

168

7
1 i i

3 17

JUN

i i i i
1

111 _1_L.II

1 1 1 HI 1 1 1 1 -LL.1
7 21

4 18

AUG

OCT

NOV

9 23

JUL

SEP
1981

16 30 13

DEC

JAN

1 1 1 -11 1 L -LLL II 1 1 1 1 1 11 ii i
27 10 24 10 24 7 21
19

FEB

MAR

APR
MAY
1982

2 16 30

JUN

-

m

14 28 11

JUL

Z

168

r

0

2

AUG

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: AUGUST II, 1982
1/ BUSINESS LOANS INCLUDE BANKERS' ACCEPTANCES AND COMMERCIAL PAPER.
2/ BANKS WITH DOMESTIC ASSETS OF 8750 MILLION OR MORE


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

11

172

12
LARGE TIME DEPOSITS
ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS
AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
BILLIONS
285
280
275
270

255
250
245
240
235

1981
LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: AUGUST II,

1982

CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS’ H.6 RELEASE.
TIME DEPOSITS ISSUED IN DENOMINATIONS OF «100,000 OR MORE.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louisi’

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS