Full text of U.S. Financial Data : January 16, 2003
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January 16, 2003 USFinancialData THE WEEK’S HIGHLIGHTS: ■ In December, the consumer price index (CPI) increased 0.1 percent, or 0.7 percent at an annual rate. Excluding food and energy prices, the CPI increased at a 0.6 percent rate in December. For the year (December 2001 to December 2002, not seasonally adjusted), the CPI rose 2.4 percent, up 0.8 percentage points from 2001’s increase. In contrast, the core CPI increased 1.9 percent in 2002, which was 0.8 percentage points less than 2001’s increase. ■ After falling 0.4 percent in November, the producer price index (PPI) for finished goods was unchanged in December. In 2002 the PPI rose 1.2 percent after falling 1.6 percent in the previous year. The PPI for intermediate materials rose 3.2 percent in 2002 after falling 4 percent in 2001; the PPI for crude materials increased 26.1 percent in 2002 after falling 32.5 percent in 2001. ■ The value of total business inventories rose 0.2 percent in November but was virtually unchanged when motor vehicles were excluded. Total business sales increased 0.3 percent in November following a 0.5 percent increase in October. Business sales and inventories are not adjusted for price changes. ■ Measured from a week earlier, initial claims for state unemployment insurance benefits fell 32,000 during the week ending Jan. 11 to 360,000. The four-week moving average of initial claims fell 19,500 to 387,500, its lowest level since the week ending Nov. 30, 2002. ■ In December, retail and food services sales rose 1.2 percent. November’s sales increase was revised from 0.4 percent to 0.9 percent. All data are seasonally adjusted unless otherwise indicated. U.S. Financial Data will continue to be mailed to all subscribers through June 27, 2003. After that date, this publication will be available weekly only on the Internet at <research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd>. To be added to our free electronic mailing list, please visit our web site at <research.stlouisfed.org/maillist>. To obtain more information on the data, access the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database at <research.stlouisfed.org/fred> or send an e-mail to stlsFRED@stls.frb.org. Adjusted Monetary Base Averages of Daily Figures Seasonally Adjusted 710 Billions of Dollars 02/03 Oct 30 Nov 13 27 Dec 11 25 Jan 8 700 Billions of Dollars Billions 692.692 691.026 693.361 695.710 694.166 700.246 710 700 690 690 680 680 670 670 660 660 650 650 640 640 7 21 Nov 5 19 2 Dec 16 30 13 27 13 27 10 24 Jan Feb Mar Apr 8 22 5 May 2001 19 Jun 3 17 31 14 28 11 25 Jul Aug Sep 9 23 Oct 6 20 4 Nov 18 1 Dec 15 29 Jan 2002 2003 The adjusted monetary base is the sum of Federal Reserve deposits and vault cash held by domestic depository institutions, currency held by the public, and an adjustment for the effect of changes in reserve requirement ratios. The monetary base series includes Federal Reserve deposits used to satisfy clearing balance contracts. Data are computed by this bank. A detailed description of the adjusted monetary base is available from this bank. Recent data are preliminary. Adjusted Monetary Base Compounded annual rates of change, average of two maintenance periods ending: To the average of two maintenance periods ending: 1/9/02 6/12/02 9.6 7/10/02 8.8 7.5 8/7/02 8.9 8.1 7.0 4/3/02 6/12/02 7/10/02 8/7/02 9/4/02 10/2/02 9/4/02 8.2 7.2 5.7 6.6 10/2/02 7.9 6.8 5.5 6.0 4.0 11/13/02 7.3 6.2 5.0 5.2 3.9 4.1 12/11/02 7.1 6.1 5.0 5.2 4.1 4.4 4.2 1/8/03 7.0 6.0 5.0 5.2 4.3 4.6 4.5 11/13/02 5.1 Prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Money Zero Maturity (MZM) Averages of Daily Figures 6400 Seasonally Adjusted Billions of Dollars 02/03 Dec 2 9 16 23 30 Jan 6 6200 Billions of Dollars Billions 6188.1 6194.7 6195.1 6185.2 6169.7 6146.5 6400 6200 6000 6000 5800 5800 5600 5600 5400 5400 5 19 3 17 31 14 28 11 25 11 25 Nov Dec 2001 Jan Feb Mar 8 22 Apr 6 20 3 May 17 1 15 29 12 26 Jun Jul 2002 Aug 9 23 Sep 7 21 4 Oct 18 2 Nov 16 30 13 27 Dec Jan 2003 MZM is M2 minus total small denomination time deposits, plus institutional money funds, which are included in the non−M2 component of M3. Each component is seasonally adjusted. Money Zero Maturity (MZM) Compounded annual rates of change, average of four weeks ending: To the average of four weeks ending: 1/7/02 6/3/02 4.8 7/8/02 6.0 10.3 8/5/02 6.9 10.8 11.9 4/8/02 6/3/02 7/8/02 8/5/02 9/9/02 10/7/02 9/9/02 7.1 10.3 10.7 10.3 10/7/02 6.8 9.3 9.1 8.3 6.4 11/4/02 6.6 8.7 8.4 7.5 5.9 4.4 12/9/02 9.3 12.1 12.9 13.2 13.4 15.3 20.8 1/6/03 8.3 10.5 10.8 10.6 10.3 10.8 13.0 11/4/02 16.9 Prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Adjusted Reserves Seasonally Adjusted 100 Billions of Dollars 02/03 Oct 30 Nov 13 27 Dec 11 25 Jan 8 90 Billions of Dollars Billions 71.097 69.633 71.769 72.415 72.459 72.114 100 90 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 7 21 Nov 5 19 2 Dec 16 30 13 27 13 27 10 24 Jan Feb Mar Apr 8 22 5 May 2001 19 Jun 3 17 31 14 28 11 25 Jul Aug Sep 9 23 Oct 6 20 4 Nov 18 1 Dec 15 29 Jan 2002 2003 Adjusted reserves is the difference between the adjusted monetary base and the currency component of M1. Adjusted Reserves Compounded annual rates of change, average of two maintenance periods ending: To the average of two maintenance periods ending: 1/9/02 6/12/02 −1.0 7/10/02 −4.2 −0.4 8/7/02 −3.0 0.7 4/3/02 6/12/02 7/10/02 8/7/02 9/4/02 10/2/02 11/13/02 −8.4 9/4/02 −2.0 1.7 −3.8 5.3 10/2/02 −0.6 3.2 −0.1 7.5 8.9 11/13/02 −0.4 2.9 0.3 5.4 5.6 5.5 12/11/02 2.3 6.2 5.2 10.6 11.9 13.7 14.4 1/8/03 2.4 5.9 5.0 9.5 10.4 11.4 11.2 19.1 Prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Money Stock (M1) and Total Checkable Deposits Averages of Daily Figures Seasonally Adjusted 1400 Billions of Dollars Billions of Dollars M1 02/03 Dec 2 9 16 23 30 Jan 6 1350 1300 875 TCD Billions 1229.5 1207.4 1210.6 1228.0 1227.6 1206.0 02/03 Dec 2 9 16 23 30 Jan 6 Billions 596.5 574.9 578.3 595.7 594.3 571.9 825 775 1250 725 M1 (left scale) 1200 675 1150 625 TCD (right scale) 1100 575 1050 525 5 19 3 Nov 17 31 14 28 11 25 11 25 Dec Jan Feb Mar 8 22 6 Apr 20 3 May 17 1 Jun 2001 15 29 12 26 9 Jul Sep Aug 23 7 21 4 Oct 18 2 Nov 16 30 13 27 Dec 2002 Jan 2003 M1 is the sum of currency held by the nonbank public, total checkable deposits and travelers checks. Total checkable deposits is the sum Fix of demand deposits and other checkable deposits at depository institutions. Current data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.6 release. Currency Component of M1 Averages of Daily Figures Seasonally Adjusted 680 Billions of Dollars Billions of Dollars Compounded annual rates of change, average of the four weeks ending January 6, 2003, from the four weeks ending: 660 Jan Apr Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 640 620 02/03 Dec 2 9 16 23 30 Jan 6 7.5 6.5 4.1 3.8 3.8 4.8 4.6 7, 2002 8, 2002 8, 2002 5, 2002 9, 2002 7, 2002 4, 2002 Billions 625.6 625.1 624.8 624.7 625.7 626.5 680 660 640 620 600 600 580 580 560 560 5 19 Nov 3 17 Dec 31 14 28 11 25 11 Jan Feb 25 Mar 8 22 Apr 6 20 May 2001 3 17 1 15 29 12 Jul Jun 2002 Aug 26 9 23 Sep 7 21 Oct 4 18 Nov 2 16 30 13 27 Dec Jan 2003 Current data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.6 release. Fix Prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Yields on Selected Securities Averages of Daily Figures 8.00 Percent Percent 7.00 8.00 7.00 Corporate Aaa Bonds 6.00 6.00 5.00 5.00 Prime Rate 4.00 4.00 2−Year Interest Rate Swap 3.00 3.00 2.00 2.00 Commercial Paper 1.00 1.00 2 16 30 14 28 11 25 Nov Dec 2001 2002/2003 Oct 25 Nov 1 8 15 22 29 Dec 6 13 20 27 Jan 3 10 17 Jan 8 22 Feb 8 22 5 Mar 19 Apr 3 17 31 14 28 12 26 May Jun Jul 2002 9 23 6 Aug 20 Sep 4 18 1 Oct 15 29 13 27 10 24 Nov Dec Jan 2003 30−Day Commercial Paper 90−Day CDs 2−Year Interest Rate Swap Corporate Aaa Bonds Corporate Baa Bonds Municipal Bonds * 1.73 1.68 1.43 1.28 1.28 1.30 1.29 1.32 1.32 1.33 1.28 1.25 1.25 1.78 1.65 1.46 1.34 1.36 1.36 1.36 1.34 1.34 1.35 1.31 1.31 1.30 2.54 2.17 2.18 2.17 2.31 2.42 2.37 2.20 2.16 2.04 2.00 2.10 2.07 6.50 6.39 6.32 6.22 6.30 6.37 6.33 6.20 6.23 6.14 6.16 6.24 6.25 7.95 7.81 7.71 7.56 7.56 7.60 7.55 7.45 7.45 7.38 7.37 7.44 7.43 5.12 4.95 4.91 4.90 5.00 5.00 4.94 4.83 4.82 4.79 4.84 4.94 N.A. Current data, from the Federal Reserve Board’s H.15 release, are averages of rates available for the week ending January 17, 2003 . * Bond Buyer’s Average Index of 20 municipal bonds, Thursday data. Prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Selected Interest Rates Averages of Daily Figures 6.00 Percent Percent 5.00 6.00 5.00 10−Year Treasury Securities 4.00 4.00 3.00 3.00 Intended Federal Funds Rate Federal Funds Rate 2.00 2.00 3−Month Treasury Bill 1.00 1.00 2 16 30 14 28 11 25 Nov Dec 2001 2002/2003 Oct 25 Nov 1 8 15 22 29 Dec 6 13 20 27 Jan 3 10 17 * 8 Jan Federal Funds** 1.72 1.79 1.70 1.21 1.28 1.27 1.24 1.23 1.27 1.23 1.20 1.20 1.26 22 Feb 8 22 5 Mar 19 Apr 3 17 31 14 28 12 26 May Jun Jul 2002 9 23 Aug 6 20 Sep 4 18 1 Oct 15 29 13 27 10 24 Nov Dec Jan 2003 3−Month Treasury Bill 2−Year Treasury Securities 5−Year Treasury Securities 10−Year Treasury Securities Treasury Long−Term Average 1.64 1.47 1.28 1.20 1.20 1.21 1.20 1.19 1.20 1.16 1.20 1.18 1.19 2.14 1.77 1.84 1.84 1.99 2.07 2.01 1.87 1.83 1.71 1.70 1.80 1.77 3.22 2.90 2.95 2.93 3.13 3.26 3.24 3.06 3.02 2.89 2.91 3.12 3.12 4.21 4.00 4.00 3.94 4.08 4.19 4.17 4.04 4.05 3.92 3.94 4.10 4.12 5.27 5.16 5.12 5.00 5.08 5.18 5.16 5.04 5.10 4.99 5.00 5.13 5.14 Current data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.15 release, except for the intended federal funds rate. * Averages of rates available. ** Seven−day averages for week ending two days earlier than date shown. Prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Money Stock (M2) and Money Zero Maturity Averages of Daily Figures 6400 Seasonally Adjusted Billions of Dollars Billions of Dollars 6400 M2 02/03 Dec 2 9 16 23 30 Jan 6 6200 Billions 5822.3 5810.2 5813.9 5825.8 5816.0 5797.6 6200 MZM 6000 6000 5800 5800 5600 5600 M2 MZM 02/03 Dec 2 9 16 23 30 Jan 6 5400 Billions 6188.1 6194.7 6195.1 6185.2 6169.7 6146.5 5200 5400 5200 5 19 3 17 31 14 28 11 25 11 25 Nov Dec 2001 Jan Feb Mar 8 22 Apr 6 20 3 May 17 1 15 29 12 26 Jun Jul 2002 Aug 9 23 Sep 7 21 4 Oct 18 2 Nov 16 30 13 27 Dec Jan 2003 M2 is the sum of M1, savings (including money market deposit accounts), small time deposits and retail money funds. Current data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.6 release. Money Stock (M2) Compounded annual rates of change, average of four weeks ending: To the average of four weeks ending: 1/7/02 6/3/02 3.8 7/8/02 4.9 8.1 8/5/02 5.9 9.1 10.7 4/8/02 6/3/02 7/8/02 8/5/02 9/9/02 10/7/02 9/9/02 6.3 9.0 10.0 10.3 10/7/02 6.2 8.4 8.9 8.8 7.2 11/4/02 6.7 8.9 9.5 9.6 8.7 8.7 12/9/02 7.0 8.9 9.4 9.5 8.8 8.9 10.4 1/6/03 6.4 8.0 8.2 7.9 7.1 6.7 7.1 11/4/02 5.0 Prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Savings and Small Time Deposits Averages of Daily Figures Seasonally Adjusted 1300 Billions of Dollars Billions of Dollars 2900 Small Time 02/03 Dec 1200 Billions 884.2 882.6 881.0 879.0 877.6 875.5 2 9 16 23 30 6 1100 Jan 2800 2700 1000 2600 Small Time (left scale) 2500 900 Savings 800 02/03 Dec 2 9 16 23 30 Jan 6 Savings Deposits (right scale) 700 2400 Billions 2755.7 2766.1 2770.4 2770.6 2765.3 2773.4 2300 2200 600 5 19 3 Nov 17 31 14 28 11 25 11 25 Dec Jan Feb Mar 8 22 6 Apr 20 3 May 17 1 Jun 2001 15 29 12 26 9 Jul Sep Aug 23 7 21 4 Oct 18 2 Nov 16 30 13 27 Dec Jan 2002 2003 Savings deposits and small time deposits are at all depository institutions. Fix Large Time Deposits and Retail Money Funds Averages of Daily Figures Seasonally Adjusted 1200 Billions of Dollars Billions of Dollars Large Time 02/03 Dec 2 9 16 23 30 6 1100 Jan 1200 Retail Money Billions 808.4 797.0 788.7 792.9 794.7 787.3 02/03 Dec Jan Billions 952.9 954.1 951.8 948.2 945.4 942.7 2 9 16 23 30 6 1100 1000 1000 Retail Money 900 900 800 800 Large Time 700 700 5 19 Nov 3 17 Dec 2001 31 14 28 11 25 11 Jan Feb 25 Mar 8 22 Apr 6 20 May 3 17 1 15 29 12 Jul Jun Aug 26 9 23 Sep 7 21 Oct 4 18 Nov 2 16 30 13 27 Dec 2002 Jan 2003 Large time deposits and retail money funds are at all despository institutions. Large time deposits are those issued in denominations of $100,000 or more. Retail money funds were originally called general purpose and broker/dealer money market funds. Prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Fix Total Borrowings From Federal Reserve Banks Averages of Daily Figures 1.6 Billions of Dollars 02/03 Dec 11 18 25 Jan 1 8 15 1.4 1.2 Billions of Dollars Billions 0.210 0.055 0.059 0.050 0.027 0.017 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 7 21 5 Nov 19 2 Dec 16 30 13 27 13 27 10 24 Jan Feb Mar Apr 8 22 5 May 19 3 Jul Jun 2001 17 31 14 28 11 25 Aug Sep 9 23 6 20 Oct 4 Nov 18 1 Dec 15 29 Jan 2002 2003 As of January 9, 2003, borrowings include primary, secondary, and seasonal credit. Prior to that, borrowings include seasonal, adjustment, and extended credit. Fix Bank Loans and Credit All Commercial Banks in the United States * Seasonally Adjusted 6400 Billions of Dollars Billions of Dollars Bank Credit 02/03 Nov 27 Dec 4 11 18 25 Jan 1 6200 6000 5050 Loans & Leases Billions 5839.6 5839.0 5905.2 5895.6 5910.1 5853.0 02/03 Nov 27 Dec 4 11 18 25 Jan 1 Billions 4163.0 4160.1 4186.1 4199.4 4187.9 4111.3 4850 4650 5800 4450 Bank Credit (left scale) ** 5600 4250 5400 4050 Loans and Leases (right scale) 5200 3850 7 21 Nov 5 19 Dec 2 16 30 13 27 13 Jan Feb Mar 27 10 24 Apr 8 22 May 2001 5 19 3 17 31 14 Jul Jun Aug 28 11 25 Sep 9 23 Oct 6 20 Nov 4 18 1 Dec 2002 15 29 Jan 2003 Current data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.8 release. * Includes foreign−related institutions ** Includes loans and leases and securities Prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Fix Commercial Paper of Nonfinancial Companies Not Seasonally Adjusted 350 Billions of Dollars 02/03 Dec 11 18 25 Jan 1 8 15 300 Billions of Dollars Billions 158.3 159.0 152.7 145.1 154.7 156.1 350 300 250 250 200 200 150 150 100 100 7 21 5 Nov 19 2 Dec 16 30 13 27 13 27 10 24 Jan Feb Mar Apr 8 22 5 May 19 3 Jul Jun 2001 17 31 14 28 11 25 Aug 9 23 6 Oct Sep 20 4 Nov 18 1 Dec 15 29 Jan 2002 2003 Current data appear at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/cp/table1.htm. Fix Commercial and Industrial Loans Seasonally Adjusted 1175 Billions of Dollars Billions of Dollars All Banks 02/03 Nov 27 Dec 4 11 18 25 Jan 1 1150 1125 1100 650 Large Banks Billions 971.9 969.9 968.0 966.0 967.9 959.4 02/03 Nov 27 Dec 4 11 18 25 Jan 1 Billions 483.3 481.0 479.7 480.0 480.2 475.1 625 600 575 1075 550 1050 525 Large Banks (right scale) ** 1025 500 1000 475 All Banks (left scale) * 975 450 950 425 7 21 Nov 5 19 Dec 2 16 Jan 30 13 27 13 Feb Mar 27 10 24 Apr 8 22 May 2001 5 19 3 17 31 14 Jul Jun 2002 Aug 28 11 25 Sep 9 23 Oct 6 20 Nov 4 18 Dec 1 15 29 Jan 2003 Current data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.8 release. * Includes foreign−related institutions. ** Weekly reporting, domestically chartered banks. Fix Prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Trade−Weighted Exchange Rate Indexes Averages of Daily Figures 120 March 1973=100 02/03 Dec 11 18 25 Jan 1 8 15 115 January 1997=100 Major 99.9 98.7 98.3 97.8 97.7 96.8 02/03 Dec 11 18 25 Jan 1 8 15 Broad 126.6 125.5 125.1 125.0 124.9 124.3 110 140 135 130 Broad Index (right scale) 105 125 Major Currency Index (left scale) 100 120 95 115 7 21 Nov 5 19 Dec 2001 2 16 30 13 27 13 27 10 24 Jan Feb Mar Apr 8 22 May 5 19 Jun 3 17 31 14 28 11 25 Jul Aug Sep 9 23 Oct 6 20 4 Nov 2002 18 Dec 1 15 29 Jan 2003 The major currency index (MCI) comprises of 7 currencies. The broad index comprises the MCI plus 19 additional currencies. Further details may be found at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/summary/. Prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis