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USFinancialData February 5, 2015 Advance Edition Calendar of Releases Titles for the current week are links to their respective releases. MONDAY* TUESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY* FRIDAY February 2 February 3 February 4 February 5 February 6 Personal Income (Dec) A: 0.3% PF: 0.2% Factory Orders (Dec) A: -3.4% PF: -2.2% Consumption (Dec) A: -0.3% PF: -0.2% Latest Issue National Economic Trends ISM Non Mfg Index (Jan) A: 56.7 PF: 56.4 Initial Claims (1/31) A: 278K PF: 290K Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan) A: N/A PF: 235K Productivity (Q4) A: -1.8% PF: 0.5% Private Payrolls (Jan) A: N/A PF: 225K Core PCE (Dec) A: 0.0% PF: 0.0% Unit Labor Cost (Q4) PF: 1.0% A: 2.7% Unemployment Rate (Jan) A: N/A PF: 5.6% Construct Spending (Dec) A: 0.4% PF: 0.7% International Trade (Dec) A: -$46.6B PF: -$38.0B Consumer Credit (Dec) PF: $15.0B A: N/A February 12 February 13 ISM Index (Jan) A: 53.5 PF: 54.5 February 9 February 10 Latest Issue Monetary Trends February 11 Treasury Budget (Jan) CF: N/A PF: N/A Initial Claims (2/7) CF: N/A PF: N/A Import Prices (Jan) CF: N/A PF: -2.0% Retail Sales (Jan) CF: N/A PF: 0.3% Business Inventories (Dec) CF: N/A PF: 0.2% February 16 February 17 February 18 PPI (Jan) CF: N/A February 19 February 20 Initial Claims (2/14) CF: N/A Housing Starts (Jan) CF: N/A Industrial Production (Jan) CF: N/A Capacity Utilization (Jan) CF: N/A FOMC Minutes (previous meeting) DEFINITIONS: A, actual value; PF, previous week’s forecast; CF, current week’s forecast; K, thousand; M, million; B, billion. *The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System provides H.3, H.4.1, and H.6 releases each Thursday and H.10 and H.15 releases each Monday. Forecast data are from Thomson Reuters. Thomson Reuters, 20. All Rights Reserved. Use, duplication, or sale of this service or the data contained herein, except as described in the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Subscription Agreement, is strictly prohibited. research.stlouisfed.org Contents Page 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Adjusted Monetary Base Adjusted Reserves MZM M2 Composition of Federal Reserve Assets and Liabilities Reserve Bank Credit and Selected Categories Reverse Repurchase Agreements and Federal Reserve Remittances Other Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Items Yields on Selected Securities Corporate Bond Spreads and Mortgage Interest Rates Yields on Nominal and Inflation-Indexed Treasury Securities Federal Funds Futures Market Equity Price Indices Crude Oil Prices Natural Gas Prices Exchange Rates Currency, Savings, and Small Time Deposits Institutional and Retail Money Funds, and Borrowings from Federal Reserve Banks Bank Loans Commercial Paper Outstanding Reference Tables Notes Conventions used in this publication: 1. Unless otherwise indicated, figure and table data are weekly and seasonally adjusted. 2. For pages 11, 15, 16 (top chart), 17 (top chart), and 23 (top table), the last observation is a daily average that incorporates all available data at the time of publication, which usually includes observations for the first three trading days of the week (Monday through Wednesday). The previous observations signify that week’s average. We welcome your comments addressed to: Editor, U.S. Financial Data Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis P.O. Box 442 St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or to: stlsFRED@stls.frb.org U.S. Financial Data is published weekly by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. For more information on data in this publication, please visit research.stlouisfed.org/fred2 or call (314) 444-8590. To be added to our free email notification list, please visit our web site at research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd. updated through 02/05/15 U.S. Financial Data Adjusted Monetary Base Averages of Daily Figures, Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars 4300 4200 4100 4000 3900 3800 3700 3600 3500 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2013 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2014 Feb 2015 Adjusted Monetary Base To the average of two maintenance periods ending: Compounded annual rates of change, average of two maintenance periods ending: 02/05/14 04/30/14 07/09/14 08/06/14 09/03/14 10/01/14 11/12/14 07/09/14 8.6 08/06/14 15.1 10.8 09/03/14 14.1 10.2 30.8 10/01/14 11.8 7.5 18.1 1.9 11/12/14 4.4 -1.8 -0.5 -12.9 -20.1 12/10/14 -0.9 -7.8 -9.5 -20.1 -26.7 -34.3 01/07/15 4.7 -0.1 1.5 -6.4 -9.3 -10.9 6.1 02/04/15 7.5 3.9 6.7 0.3 -1.0 -0.4 18.4 12/10/14 67.6 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 3 updated through 02/05/15 U.S. Financial Data Adjusted Reserves Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars 3100 3000 2900 2800 2700 2600 2500 2400 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2013 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2014 Feb 2015 Adjusted Reserves To the average of two maintenance periods ending: Compounded annual rates of change, average of two maintenance periods ending: 01/22/14 04/16/14 06/25/14 07/23/14 08/20/14 09/17/14 10/29/14 06/25/14 19.4 07/23/14 13.0 1.2 08/20/14 23.5 20.3 35.5 09/17/14 19.9 15.4 20.8 45.2 10/29/14 12.7 6.5 5.0 12.1 -14.3 11/26/14 3.2 -4.9 -10.8 -9.4 -29.7 -37.9 12/24/14 3.0 -4.3 -9.1 -7.7 -23.9 -28.7 -34.3 01/21/15 7.7 2.1 -0.2 2.6 -10.7 -12.1 -7.5 11/26/14 35.9 Research Division 4 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 02/05/15 U.S. Financial Data MZM Averages of Daily Figures, Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars 13100 13000 12900 12800 12700 12600 12500 12400 12300 12200 12100 12000 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2013 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2014 Feb 2015 MZM To the average of four weeks ending: Compounded annual rates of change, average of four weeks ending: 01/27/14 04/21/14 06/30/14 07/28/14 08/25/14 09/22/14 11/03/14 06/30/14 5.8 07/28/14 6.2 6.7 08/25/14 5.8 5.9 5.9 09/22/14 5.7 5.8 5.6 4.1 11/03/14 5.7 5.8 5.6 4.8 12/01/14 5.7 5.8 5.7 5.1 5.6 5.8 12/29/14 5.9 6.0 6.1 5.6 6.2 6.5 7.0 01/26/15 5.9 6.0 6.0 5.5 6.0 6.2 6.4 12/01/14 5.4 6.6 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 5 updated through 02/05/15 U.S. Financial Data M2 Averages of Daily Figures, Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars 11800 11700 11600 11500 11400 11300 11200 11100 11000 10900 10800 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2013 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2014 Feb 2015 M2 To the average of four weeks ending: Compounded annual rates of change, average of four weeks ending: 01/27/14 04/21/14 06/30/14 07/28/14 08/25/14 06/30/14 6.6 07/28/14 6.9 6.9 08/25/14 6.5 6.2 6.0 09/22/14 6.2 5.9 5.6 4.2 11/03/14 5.9 5.5 5.1 4.1 4.3 09/22/14 11/03/14 12/01/14 5.8 5.4 5.0 4.2 4.4 4.3 12/29/14 5.9 5.6 5.3 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.8 01/26/15 6.0 5.7 5.5 5.0 5.3 5.4 6.1 12/01/14 6.8 Research Division 6 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 02/05/15 U.S. Financial Data Composition of Federal Reserve Assets End of Period Wednesday Figures Billions of Dollars 5000 Market Adjustment to Treasury and MBS Portfolio Short-Term Lending to Financial Firms and Markets 4500 Rescue Operations Operations Focused on Longer-Term Credit Conditions 4000 Traditional Portfolio Traditional Portfolio and Long-Term Assets 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Composition of Federal Reserve Liabilities End of Period Wednesday Figures Billions of Dollars 5000 Source Base (not adjusted for reserve requirement changes) 4500 Treasury Financing Account Traditional Liabilities and Capital Account 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 7 updated through 02/05/15 U.S. Financial Data Reserve Bank Credit and Federal Reserve Holdings of U.S. Treasury Securities Averages of Daily Figures Billions of dollars 4800 4500 4200 Reserve Bank Credit 3900 3600 3300 3000 2700 2400 2100 U.S. Treasury Securities 1800 1500 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2013 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Feb Jan 2014 2015 Term Deposits Held by Depository Institutions End of Period Wednesday Figures Billions of dollars 420 360 300 240 180 120 60 0 Dec 2013 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 2014 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Feb Jan 2015 Research Division 8 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 02/05/15 U.S. Financial Data Factors Absorbing Reserve Funds: Reverse Repurchase Agreements Averages of Daily Figures Billions of Dollars 350 325 300 275 250 225 200 175 150 125 100 75 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2013 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Feb Jan 2014 2015 Federal Reserve Earnings Remitted to the U.S. Treasury 52-Week Rolling Sums Billions of Dollars, Weekly Averages of Daily Figures 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 Dec Jan Feb 2013 Mar Apr May Jun Jul 2014 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Feb Jan 2015 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 9 updated through 02/05/15 U.S. Financial Data Federal Reserve Holdings of Agency Debt and Mortgage-Backed Securities Averages of Daily Figures Millions of Dollars 2100 1800 Mortgage-Backed Securities 1500 1200 900 600 300 Purchases of Agency Debt 0 Dec Feb Jan Mar Apr May 2013 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2014 Feb Jan 2015 Maturity Distribution of U.S. Treasury Securities Held by the Federal Reserve Billions of Dollars 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 1 Year or Less 5 to 10 Years 400 1 to 5 Years 300 Over 10 Years 200 100 0 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Research Division 10 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 02/05/15 U.S. Financial Data Yields on Selected Securities Averages of Daily Figures Percent 5 4 Corporate Aaa Prime Rate 3 2 1 2-Year Swap 30-Day Nonfinancial Commercial Paper 0 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2013 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Feb Jan 2014 2015 Percent 4 3 10-Year Treasury 2 1 FFR Target Range Federal Funds Rate 3-Month Treasury | | | | || || 0 Dec Jan Feb 2013 Mar Apr May Jun Jul 2014 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Feb Jan 2015 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 11 updated through 02/05/15 U.S. Financial Data Corporate Bond Yields Relative to Yields on 10 - Year Treasury Securities Averages of Daily Figures Percent 3.0 Baa - 10Y 2.5 2.0 Aaa - 10Y 1.5 1.0 Dec Feb Jan Mar Apr May Jun 2013 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Feb Jan 2014 2015 Interest Rates on 30 - Year Conforming and Jumbo Mortgages Averages of Daily Figures Percent 5.3 Jumbo 4.8 4.3 Conforming 3.8 3.3 Dec 2013 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 2014 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Feb Jan 2015 Research Division 12 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 02/05/15 U.S. Financial Data Treasury Note Yields Averages of Daily Figures Percent 4 30-Year 3 10-Year 2 1 5-Year 0 Dec 2013 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Feb Jan 2014 2015 Inflation-Indexed Treasury Yields Averages of Daily Figures Percent 2 30-Year 1 10-Year 0 5-Year -1 -2 Dec 2013 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Feb Jan 2014 2015 Inflation-Indexed Treasury Yield Spreads Averages of Daily Figures Percent 2.5 30-Year 2.2 10-Year 1.9 5-Year 1.6 1.3 1.0 Dec 2013 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 2014 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Feb Jan 2015 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 13 updated through 02/05/15 U.S. Financial Data Rates on Federal Funds Futures Contracts Daily Data Percent 0.60 0.55 0.50 0.45 0.40 0.35 12-Month Futures 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 6-Month Futures 0.10 3-Month Futures 0.05 1st Expiring Contract FFR Target Rate Range 0.00 Sep Nov Oct Dec Feb Jan 2014 2015 Rates on Federal Funds Futures on Selected Dates Percent 0.6 0.5 Week Ending: 12/10/14 01/07/15 02/03/15 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1st-Expiring Contract 3-Month 6-Month 12-Month Contract Settlement Month Research Division 14 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 02/05/15 U.S. Financial Data Dow Jones Industrial Average and NASDAQ Composite Averages of Daily Figures Closing Price February 5, 1971 = 100 20000 5100 19000 4800 18000 4500 NASDAQ (right scale) 17000 4200 16000 3900 Dow Jones (left scale) 15000 3600 14000 3300 13000 3000 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2013 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2014 *The S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC series are Copyright Feb Jan 2015 2014, S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. All rights reserved. Wilshire 5000 and Standard & Poor's 500 Averages of Daily Figures January 2, 1980 = 1078.29 1941-43 = 10 23000 2200 22000 2100 21000 2000 Wilshire** (left scale) 20000 1900 S&P* (right scale) 19000 1800 18000 1700 17000 1600 16000 1500 15000 1400 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2013 *The S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC series are Copyright May Jun Jul Aug Sep 2014 Oct Nov Dec Feb Jan 2015 2014, S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. All rights reserved. **Source: Wilshire Associates Incorporated, www.wilshire.com Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 15 updated through 02/05/15 U.S. Financial Data Crude Oil Spot Prices West Texas Intermediate, Averages of Daily Figures Dollars per barrel 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 Dec Feb Jan Mar Apr May Jun 2013 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Feb Jan 2014 2015 Crude Oil Futures Prices West Texas Intermediate Dollars per barrel 60 58 56 54 52 02/04/2015 50 48 46 01/28/2015 44 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 2015 Sep Oct Nov Dec Feb Jan 2016 Research Division 16 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 02/05/15 U.S. Financial Data Natural Gas Spot Prices Henry Hub, Averages of Daily Figures Dollars per million btu 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 Dec Feb Jan Mar Apr May Jun 2013 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Feb Jan 2014 2015 Natural Gas Futures Prices Henry Hub Dollars per million btu 3.5 3.4 3.3 01/28/2015 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 02/04/2015 2.6 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 2015 Sep Oct Nov Dec Feb Jan 2016 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 17 updated through 02/05/15 U.S. Financial Data Trade-Weighted Exchange Rate Indexes Averages of Daily Figures March 1973=100 January 1987=100 90 115 87 112 84 109 Broad Index (right scale) 81 106 78 103 Major Index (left scale) 75 100 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2013 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Feb Jan 2014 2015 Exchange Rates Averages of Daily Figures Euro/US$ Yen/US$ 0.92 127 0.89 122 0.86 117 0.83 112 Japan (right scale) 0.80 107 0.77 102 0.74 97 Euro (left scale) 0.71 92 Dec 2013 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 2014 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Feb Jan 2015 Research Division 18 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 02/05/15 U.S. Financial Data Currency Component of M1 Averages of Daily Figures, Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars 1280 1270 1260 1250 1240 1230 1220 1210 1200 1190 1180 1170 1160 1150 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2013 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Feb Jan 2014 2015 Savings and Small Time Deposits Averages of Daily Figures, Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars Billions of dollars 600 8000 580 7800 Savings (right scale) 560 7600 540 7400 520 7200 Small Time (left scale) 500 7000 Dec Jan Feb 2013 Mar Apr May Jun Jul 2014 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Feb Jan 2015 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 19 updated through 02/05/15 U.S. Financial Data Institutional and Retail Money Funds Averages of Daily Figures, Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars 1900 1700 Institutional Money 1500 1300 1100 900 Retail Money 700 500 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2013 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Feb Jan 2014 2015 Total Borrowings from Federal Reserve Banks Averages of Daily Figures Billions of dollars 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 Dec 2013 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 2014 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Feb Jan 2015 Note: Total borrowings include loans to depository institutions for primary, secondary, and seasonal credit, primary dealer and other broker-dealer credit. This category also contains asset-backed commercial paper money market mutual fund liquidity facility, credit extended to American International Group, Inc.,net, term asset-backed securities loan facility, and other credit extensions. Term auction credit is excluded. Research Division 20 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 02/05/15 U.S. Financial Data Bank Loans and Credit All Commercial Banks in the United States, Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars Billions of dollars 11100 8050 10975 7950 10850 7850 10725 7750 Loans and Leases (right scale) 10600 7650 10475 7550 10350 7450 10225 7350 10100 7250 Bank Credit (left scale) 9975 7150 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2013 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Feb Jan 2014 2015 Commercial and Industrial Loans Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars Billions of dollars 1870 980 1830 960 1790 940 1750 920 1710 Large Banks (right scale) 900 1670 880 1630 860 All Banks (left scale) 1590 840 1550 820 Dec Jan Feb 2013 Mar Apr May Jun Jul 2014 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Feb Jan 2015 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 21 updated through 02/05/15 U.S. Financial Data Commercial Paper Outstanding of Nonfinancial Companies Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars 300 290 280 270 260 250 240 230 220 210 200 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2013 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Feb Jan 2014 2015 Commercial Paper Outstanding: Financial and Asset-Backed Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars 650 600 550 Financial 500 450 400 350 300 Asset-Backed 250 200 Dec 2013 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 2014 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Feb Jan 2015 Research Division 22 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 02/05/15 U.S. Financial Data Interest Rates Percent 30-Day Comm. Paper 90-Day 2-Year Corporate Corporate Municipal CDs Interest Non-Jumbo Rate Swap Aaa Bonds Baa Bonds Bonds Federal Funds 3-Month Treasury Bill 2-Year Treasury Securities 5-Year Treasury Securities 10-Year Treasury Securities 30-Year Treasury Securities Nov 14 0.07 0.08 0.74 3.95 4.80 3.98 0.09 0.02 0.54 1.64 2.36 3.08 21 0.07 0.08 0.73 3.96 4.84 3.93 0.10 0.02 0.53 1.64 2.33 3.05 28 0.06 0.08 0.72 3.88 4.74 3.94 0.10 0.02 0.51 1.56 2.25 2.96 5 0.10 0.08 0.76 3.90 4.79 3.83 0.10 0.02 0.56 1.60 2.27 2.97 Dec Jan Feb 12 0.11 0.08 0.83 3.75 4.72 3.65 0.12 0.03 0.61 1.61 2.19 2.84 19 0.11 0.08 0.82 3.74 4.72 3.65 0.12 0.04 0.63 1.61 2.14 2.75 26 0.10 0.08 0.92 3.79 4.75 3.65 0.13 0.03 0.73 1.74 2.24 2.81 2 0.13 0.08 0.89 3.72 4.68 3.56 0.12 0.03 0.69 1.67 2.18 2.75 9 0.09 0.08 0.85 3.54 4.53 3.42 0.11 0.03 0.63 1.50 2.00 2.56 16 0.11 0.08 0.74 3.46 4.45 3.29 0.12 0.03 0.51 1.32 1.86 2.46 23 0.09 0.08 0.73 3.45 4.45 3.36 0.13 0.03 0.53 1.35 1.85 2.42 30 0.08 0.08 0.75 3.36 4.36 3.36 0.12 0.02 0.51 1.28 1.77 2.33 0.08 . 0.74 3.38 4.37 . 0.09 0.02 0.51 1.25 1.76 2.34 6* *Averages of rates available Money Stock and Components Reserves and Base Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted Dec 15 Jan M2 MZM 11617 12902 Currency 1249 Small Time 514.3 Savings Retail Money 7572.5 614.3 Institutional Money 1798.9 Nov 12 Adjusted Monetary Base Adjusted Reserves 3887.404 2656.42 22 11641 12928 1253 514.6 7585.7 617.5 1801.4 26 3812.811 2609.97 29 11651 12945 1258 514.4 7618.4 617.8 1808.5 Dec 10 3738.250 2550.68 5 11628 12940 1263 514.2 7591.3 619.4 1826.9 12 11695 12967 1265 513.3 7645.7 619.1 1784.5 19 11702 12969 1266 512.3 7676.2 615.6 1778.6 26 11714 12983 1269 511.7 7653.8 615.0 1780.2 Jan Feb 24 3994.435 2718.26 7 3941.007 2654.74 21 4139.322 2866.09 4 4036.438 . Exchange Rates Bank Loans and Credit Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted Major Exchange Exchange Broad Exchange Exchange Rate: Rate: Euro/$ Yen/$ Rate Index Rate Index Bank Credit Loans and Leases C&I Loans (All) C&I Loans (Large) Comm. Paper (sa) Total Borrowings Dec 24 10884.0 7949.7 1793.4 952.6 275.5 0.112 Dec 19 84.1 110.7 0.808 118.2 31 10888.0 7938.4 1785.5 944.6 244.4 0.135 26 85.0 111.2 0.819 120.3 Jan Feb 7 10917.1 7970.0 1792.3 949.7 297.1 0.059 14 10948.2 7991.5 1804.9 959.9 276.2 0.031 21 10969.3 8017.6 1805.9 960.6 Jan 2 85.2 111.3 0.825 120.0 9 86.5 112.3 0.843 119.1 277.9 0.101 16 86.8 112.2 0.854 117.5 28 . . . . 279.9 0.039 23 87.9 112.8 0.873 118.0 4 . . . . 275.5 0.050 30 89.2 113.9 0.883 117.9 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 23 U.S. Financial Data Definitions M1: The sum of currency held outside the vaults of depository institutions, Federal Reserve Banks, and the U.S. Treasury; travelers checks; and demand and other checkable deposits issued by financial institutions (except demand deposits due to the Treasury and depository institutions), minus cash items in process of collection and Federal Reserve float. M2: M1 plus savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts) and small-denomination (less than $100,000) time deposits issued by financial institutions; and shares in retail money market mutual funds (funds with initial investments of less than $50,000), net of retirement accounts. M3: M2 plus large-denomination ($100,000 or more) time deposits; repurchase agreements issued by depository institutions; Eurodollar deposits, specifically, dollar-denominated deposits due to nonbank U.S. addresses held at foreign offices of U.S. banks worldwide and all banking offices in Canada and the United Kingdom; and institutional money market mutual funds (funds with initial investments of $50,000 or more). Notes Cover Page: Economic forecasts are median responses from the Thomson Reuters Weekly Economic Survey, which is sent out to 20 to 25 Wall Street economists each week (usually on Tuesday). These forecasts are released on Friday—at which time, Thursday’s USFD cover page will be updated. Page 3: Adjusted Monetary Base equals the sum of currency in circulation outside Federal Reserve Banks and the U.S. Treasury, deposits of depository financial institutions at Federal Reserve Banks, and an adjustment for the effects of changes in statutory reserve requirements on the quantity of base money held by depositories. This series is a spliced chain index; see Anderson and Rasche (1996a, 1996b, 2001, 2003). Rescue operations is the sum of credit extended to AIG, and net portfolio holdings of Maiden Lanes I, II, III, and preferred interests in AIA Aurora and ALICO Holdings. Operations focused on long term credit conditions is the sum of Federal Reserve agency obligations held outright, mortgage backed securities, the term asset-backed securities loan facility (TALF), and the TALF LLC. Traditional portfolio is the sum of treasury securities, gold certificate account, special drawing rights, coin, items in process of collection, and bank premises. On the liability side, Source base is the sum of deposits of depository institutions and Federal Reserve notes. Treasury financing account appears on the H.4.1. Traditional liabilities and capital account is the sum of deferred availability cash items, foreign official account deposits, U.S. Treasury general account, accrued dividends, reverse repurchase agreements, other deposits, and capital accounts. H.4.1 data are not seasonally adjusted. Page 8: Federal Reserve Holdings of U.S. Treasury Securities include nominal securities, inflation-indexed securities, and the compensation that adjusts for the effect of inflation on the original face value of inflation-indexed securities (inflation compensation). Term Deposits Held by Depository Institutions are interest-bearing deposits with a specific maturity date offered by the Federal Reserve Banks. For more information on the Term Deposit Facility, see http://www.frbservices.org/centralbank/term_deposit_facility.html. Page 9: Reverse repurchase (repo) agreements are domestic open market operations through which eligible financial market counterparties lend cash to the Federal Reserve Banks in exchange for securities on the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. Federal Reserve Earnings Remitted to the U.S. Treasury is the interest income earned on the Fed’s holdings of domestic securities, plus other earnings, less direct interest expenses. Included in the latter is the interest paid on reverse repos noted above. For more information on both of these series, see Domestic Open Market Operations During 2013 (http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/omo2013.pdf). Federal Reserve Earnings are derived from the Daily Treasury Statement (http://www.fms.treas.gov/dts/index.html). Page 10: Current data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.4.1 release. For more information, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/recentactions.htm. Page 4: Adjusted Reserves is defined as the sum of vault cash and Federal Reserve Bank deposits held by depository institutions and an adjustment for the effects of changes in statutory reserve requirements on the quantity of base money held by depositories. This series, a spliced chain index, is numerically larger than the Board of Governors’ measure, which excludes vault cash not used to satisfy statutory reserve requirements and Federal Reserve Bank deposits used to satisfy required clearing balance contracts; see Anderson and Rasche (1996a, 2001, 2003). Page 11: Current data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.15 release, except for the Intended Federal Funds Rate. Federal Funds Rate represents seven-day averages for the week ending two days earlier than the date shown in the release. Page 5: MZM includes the zero maturity, or immediately available, components of M3. MZM equals M2 minus small-denomination time deposits, plus institutional money market mutual funds (that is, the money market mutual funds included in M3 but excluded from M2). The label MZM, or “Money, Zero Maturity,” was coined by William Poole (1991) for this aggregate, proposed earlier by Motley (1988). Readers are cautioned that since early 1994 the level and growth of M1 have been depressed by retail sweep programs that reclassify transactions deposits (demand deposits and other checkable deposits) as savings deposits overnight, thereby reducing banks’ required reserves; see Anderson and Rasche (2001) and research.stlouisfed.org/aggreg/swdata.html. Page 13: Inflation-Indexed Treasury Yields are the most recently issued inflation-indexed bonds of 5- ,10- , and 30-year original maturities. Inflation-Indexed Treasury Yield Spreads equal the difference between yields on the most recently issued inflation-indexed bonds and the unadjusted Treasury Note Yields of similar maturities. Page 7: The asset groups are aggregates of the following categories on the H.4.1: Short-term lending to financial firms and markets is the sum of repurchase agreements, term auction credit, commercial paper funding facility, central bank liquidity swaps, money market investor funding facility, other loans (less AIG loan), and other assets. Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Page 12: Yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury security, Aaa- and Baarated corporate bonds, and the interest rate on 3-year conforming mortgages appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.15 release. The interest rates on jumbo mortgages (typically, mortgages in excess of $417,000) are listed in the Wall Street Journal. Page 14: Rates on Federal Funds Futures Contracts trace through time the yield on three specific contracts. Rates on Federal Funds Futures on Selected Dates displays a single day’s snapshot of yields for contracts expiring in the months shown on the horizontal axis. Page 16: Crude Oil (West Texas intermediate) spot and futures prices are listed in the Wall Street Journal. Spot Prices are weekly averages of daily prices; Futures Prices are usually taken on Wednesday. 23 U.S. Financial Data Page 17: Natural Gas (Henry Hub) spot prices are from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Futures prices are listed in the Wall Street Journal. Spot prices are weekly averages of daily prices; Futures prices are usually taken on Wednesday. Page 18: Data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 release. The Major Index comprises 7 currencies. The Broad Index comprises the Major Index plus 19 additional currencies. Further details may be found at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/summary/. Page 19: Data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.6 release. Savings Deposits is the sum of money market deposit accounts and passbook and statement savings. Small Time Deposits have a minimum initial maturity of 7 days. Savings deposits and small time deposits are at all depository institutions. Page 20: Data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.6 and H.4.1 releases. Retail Money Funds are included in M2. Institutional Money Funds are not part of M2; they used to be included in M3, which was discontinued as of March 23, 2006. See www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/discm3.htm. Total Borrowings include loans to depository institutions for (i) primary, secondary, and seasonal credit and (ii) primary dealer and other broker-dealer credit. This category also includes the assetbacked commercial paper money market mutual fund liquidity facility, credit extended to American International Group, Inc., term assetbacked securities loan facility, and other credit extensions. Term auction credit is excluded. Data and recent information regarding Federal Reserve lending programs appear in the Federal Reserve Board's H.4.1 release at http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/. Page 21: Data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.8 release. Bank Loans and Credit include foreign-related institutions. Bank Credit includes loans and leases and securities. All Banks includes foreign-related institutions. Large Banks are domestically chartered banks (adjusted for mergers) and report on a weekly basis. Page 22: Current data appear at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/cp/outstandings.htm. Page 23: Treasury Security yields are Treasury constant maturities as reported in the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System’s H.15 release. The 3-Month Treasury Bill yield is the secondary market yield from the H.15 release. Federal Funds represents seven-day averages for the week ending two days earlier than the date shown in the table. Municipal Bonds represents Bond Buyer’s Average Index of 20 municipal bonds, Thursday data. Sources Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Monetary aggregates and components: H.6 release. Bank credit: H.8 release. Total Borrowings and Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Items: H.4.1 release. Interest rates: H.15 release. Exchange rates: H.10 release. Commercial paper: Board of Governors web site. Chicago Board of Trade Federal funds futures contract. 24 NASDAQ Stock Market, Incorporated NASDAQ Composite. S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC Copyright © 2014, S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. All rights reserved. Reproduction of S&P500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC (“S&P”). S&P does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, completeness or availability of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions, regardless of the cause or for the results obtained from the use of such information. S&P DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE. In no event shall S&P be liable for any direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including lost income or lost profit and opportunity costs) in connection with subscriber’s or others’ use of S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average. Permission to reproduce this series can be requested from index_services@spdji.com. More contact details are available from http://us.spindices.com/contact-us/, including phone numbers for all of its regional offices. U.S. Department of the Treasury U.S. inflation-indexed security yields. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Natural gas (Henry Hub) spot prices. Wall Street Journal Jumbo mortgage interest rates, oil (West Texas intermediate) spot and futures prices, and natural gas (Henry Hub) futures prices. Wilshire Associates Incorporated (www.wilshire.com) Wilshire 5000 . References Anderson, Richard G. and Robert H. Rasche (1996a). “A Revised Measure of the St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, March/April, 78(2), pp. 3-13. ____ and ____(1996b). “Measuring the Adjusted Monetary Base in an Era of Financial Change,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, November/ December, 78(6), pp. 3-37. ____ and ____(2001). “Retail Sweep Programs and Bank Reserves, 1994-1999,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, January/February, pp. 51-72. ____ and ____ , with Jeffrey Loesel (2003). “A Reconstruction of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base and Reserves,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, September/October, 85(5), pp. 39-70. Motley, Brian (1988). “Should M2 Be Redefined?” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Review, Winter, pp. 33-51. Dow Jones Indexes Dow Jones Industrial Average. Poole, William (1991). Statement before the Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy of the Committee on Banking, Finance and Urban Affairs, U.S. House of Representatives, November 6, 1991. Government Printing Office, Serial No. 102-82. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Adjusted monetary base, adjusted reserves, and MZM. Note: Articles from this Bank’s Review are available on the Internet at research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/. Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
@FedFRASER