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USFinancialData
February 5, 2009
Advance Edition
Calendar of Releases
Titles for the current week are links to their respective releases.
MONDAY*
TUESDAY
WEDNESDAY
THURSDAY*
FRIDAY
February 2
February 3
February 4
February 5
February 6
Construct Spending (Dec)
A: -1.4%
PF: -1.2%
Initial Claims (1/31)
A: 626K
PF: 583K
Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan)
A: N/A
PF: -524K
ISM Index (Jan)
A: 35.6
PF: 32.6
Factory Orders (Dec)
A: -3.9%
PF: -3.0%
Unemployment Rate (Jan)
A: N/A
PF: 7.5%
Consumption (Dec)
A: -1.0%
PF: -0.9%
Productivity (Q4)
PF: 1.1%
A: 3.2%
Consumer Credit (Dec)
A: N/A
PF: -$3.5B
Core PCE (Dec)
A: 0.0%
PF: 0.0%
Unit Labor Cost (Q4)
A: 1.8%
PF: 2.9%
ISM Non Mfg Index (Jan)
A: 42.9
PF: 39.0
Latest Issue
National Economic Trends
February 9
February 10
February 11
February 12
International Trade (Dec)
CF: N/A
PF: -$37.0B
Initial Claims (2/7)
CF: N/A
PF: N/A
Treasury Budget (Jan)
CF: N/A
PF: -$96.0B
Retail Sales (Jan)
CF: N/A
PF: -1.0%
February 13
Business Inventories (Dec)
CF: N/A
PF: -0.6%
February 16
February 17
Latest Issue
Monetary Trends
February 18
February 19
Housing Starts (Jan)
CF: N/A
Initial Claims (2/14)
CF: N/A
Industrial Production (Jan)
CF: N/A
CF: N/A
Capacity Utilization (Jan)
CF: N/A
Core PPI (Jan)
CF: N/A
PPI (Jan)
February 20
CPI (Jan)
CF: N/A
Core CPI (Jan)
CF: N/A
Import Prices (Jan)
CF: N/A
FOMC Minutes
(previous meeting)
DEFINITIONS: A, actual value; PF, previous week’s forecast; CF, current week’s forecast; K, thousand; M, million; B, billion.
*The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System provides H.3, H.4.1, and H.6 releases each Thursday and H.10 and H.15 releases
each Monday.
Forecast data are from Thomson Reuters. ©Thomson Reuters, 2009. All Rights Reserved. Use, duplication, or sale of this service or the
data contained herein, except as described in the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Subscription Agreement, is strictly prohibited.
research.stlouisfed.org
Contents
Page
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Adjusted Monetary Base
Adjusted Reserves
MZM
M2
Yields on Selected Securities
Yields on Nominal and Inflation-Indexed Treasury Securities
Federal Funds Futures Market
Equity Price Indices
Crude Oil Prices
Natural Gas Prices
Exchange Rates
Currency, Savings, and Small Time Deposits
Institutional and Retail Money Funds, and Borrowings from Federal Reserve Banks
Selected Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Items
Bank Loans
Commercial Paper
Reference Tables
Notes
Conventions used in this publication:
1. Unless otherwise indicated, figure and table data are weekly and seasonally adjusted.
2. For pages 7, 10, 11 (top chart), 12 (top chart), and 19 (top and bottom right tables), the last observation is a daily
average that incorporates all available data at the time of publication, which usually includes observations for the first
three trading days of the week (Monday through Wednesday). The previous observations signify that week’s average.
We welcome your comments addressed to:
Editor, U.S. Financial Data
Research Division
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
P.O. Box 442
St. Louis, MO 63166-0442
or to:
stlsFRED@stls.frb.org
U.S. Financial Data is published weekly by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. For more information on data in this publication, please visit research.stlouisfed.org/fred2
or call (314) 444-8590. To be added to our free email notification list, please visit our web site at research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd.
updated through
02/05/09
U.S. Financial Data
Adjusted Monetary Base
Averages of Daily Figures, Seasonally Adjusted
Billions of dollars
1800
1700
1600
1500
1400
1300
1200
1100
1000
900
800
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
2007
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
2008
Feb
2009
Adjusted Monetary Base
To the average of
two maintenance
periods ending:
Compounded annual rates of change, average of two maintenance periods ending:
01/30/08
04/23/08
07/02/08
07/30/08
08/27/08
09/24/08
11/05/08
07/02/08
1.7
07/30/08
3.8
08/27/08
3.6
6.7
9.0
09/24/08
9.8
16.2
26.6
32.0
11/05/08
58.8
94.3
173.7
249.5
471.6
12/03/08
93.6
148.8
268.5
376.1
639.0
1228.3
12/31/08
107.4
165.2
278.9
369.7
559.3
870.1
688.0
01/28/09
105.3
155.4
243.6
305.9
421.6
568.6
383.2
12/03/08
8.0
183.4
Research Division
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
3
updated through
02/05/09
U.S. Financial Data
Adjusted Reserves
Seasonally Adjusted
Billions of dollars
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
2007
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
2008
Feb
2009
Adjusted Reserves
To the average of
two maintenance
periods ending:
Compounded annual rates of change, average of two maintenance periods ending:
01/30/08
07/02/08
-8.3
07/30/08
-5.2
04/23/08
07/02/08
07/30/08
08/27/08
09/24/08
11/05/08
12/03/08
8.3
08/27/08
-3.5
8.3
11.1
09/24/08
59.6
130.6
340.4
765.3
11/05/08
576.5
1578.1
7679.0
25889.9
232763.5
12/03/08
926.3
2557.1
11384.7
31902.5
162536.6
574799.6
12/31/08
976.5
2447.8
8550.9
18903.4
59833.4
110943.5
10887.0
01/28/09
852.0
1892.2
5194.8
9455.1
21481.8
27685.7
2873.3
529.7
Research Division
4
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
updated through
02/05/09
U.S. Financial Data
MZM
Averages of Daily Figures, Seasonally Adjusted
Billions of dollars
9600
9400
9200
9000
8800
8600
8400
8200
8000
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
2007
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
2008
Feb
2009
MZM
To the average
of four weeks
ending:
Compounded annual rates of change, average of four weeks ending:
01/28/08
06/30/08
15.7
07/28/08
14.5
04/21/08
06/30/08
07/28/08
08/25/08
09/22/08
11/03/08
12/01/08
6.9
08/25/08
12.3
5.1
3.5
09/22/08
11.4
5.1
4.0
2.1
11/03/08
11.0
5.9
5.5
4.9
7.2
12/01/08
11.6
7.3
7.6
7.6
10.1
12.2
12/29/08
13.3
9.9
11.3
11.9
14.9
17.9
25.3
01/26/09
14.4
11.6
13.4
14.3
17.3
20.2
26.4
31.0
Research Division
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
5
updated through
02/05/09
U.S. Financial Data
M2
Averages of Daily Figures, Seasonally Adjusted
Billions of dollars
8300
8200
8100
8000
7900
7800
7700
7600
7500
7400
7300
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
2007
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
2008
Feb
2009
M2
To the average
of four weeks
ending:
Compounded annual rates of change, average of four weeks ending:
01/28/08
04/21/08
06/30/08
07/28/08
06/30/08
6.2
07/28/08
6.5
3.6
08/25/08
5.5
2.7
3.6
09/22/08
5.9
3.8
5.5
4.2
11/03/08
8.3
7.6
11.0
11.8
08/25/08
09/22/08
11/03/08
12/01/08
17.2
12/01/08
8.4
7.8
10.6
11.2
14.8
17.2
12/29/08
10.1
10.2
13.6
14.6
18.3
21.0
19.7
01/26/09
10.5
10.7
13.8
14.8
17.8
19.8
18.3
23.2
Research Division
6
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
updated through
02/05/09
U.S. Financial Data
Yields on Selected Securities
Averages of Daily Figures
Percent
8
7
Prime Rate
Corporate Aaa
6
5
4
2-Year Swap
3
2
Commercial Paper
1
0
Dec
Feb
Jan
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
2007
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Feb
Jan
2008
2009
Percent
5
Intended Federal Funds Rate*
|
|
10-Year Treasury
4
3
Federal Funds Rate
2
3-Month Treasury
1
0
Dec
Jan
Feb
2007
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
2008
Oct
Nov
Dec
Feb
Jan
2009
Note: Effective December 16, 2008, FOMC reports the Intended Federal Funds Rate as a range.
Research Division
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
7
updated through
02/05/09
U.S. Financial Data
10-Year Treasury Note Yield
Averages of Daily Figures
Percent
5
4
3
2
Dec
2007
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Feb
Jan
2008
2009
10-Year Inflation-Indexed Treasury Yield
Averages of Daily Figures
Percent
4
3
2
1
0
Dec
2007
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Feb
Jan
2008
2009
10-Year Inflation-Indexed Treasury Yield Spread
Averages of Daily Figures
Percent
3
2
1
0
Dec
2007
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
2008
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Feb
Jan
2009
Research Division
8
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
updated through
02/05/09
U.S. Financial Data
Rates on Federal Funds Futures Contracts
Daily Data
Percent
2.5
2.0
1.5
Intended Target Rate
1.0
Apr 2009
Mar 2009
|
|
0.5
Feb 2009
0.0
Sep
Nov
Oct
Dec
2008
Feb
Jan
2009
Note: Effective December 16, 2008, FOMC reports the Intended Federal Funds Rate as a range.
Rates on Federal Funds Futures on Selected Dates
Percent
1.0
Week Ending:
12/08/08
01/07/09
02/04/09
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Feb 2009
Mar 2009
Apr 2009
May 2009
Jun 2009
Jul 2009
Contract Month
Research Division
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
9
updated through
02/05/09
U.S. Financial Data
Dow Jones Industrial Average and NASDAQ Composite
Averages of Daily Figures
Closing Price
February 5, 1971 = 100
15000
3000
14000
2800
Dow Jones (left scale)
13000
2600
12000
2400
11000
2200
NASDAQ (right scale)
10000
2000
9000
1800
8000
1600
7000
1400
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
2007
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Feb
Jan
2008
2009
Wilshire 5000 and Standard & Poor's 500
Averages of Daily Figures
January 2, 1980 = 1078.29
1941-43 = 10
16000
1600
15000
1500
Wilshire** (left scale)
14000
1400
13000
1300
S&P* (right scale)
12000
1200
11000
1100
10000
1000
9000
900
8000
800
Dec
2007
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
2008
Dec
Feb
Jan
2009
*Copyright 2009 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Standard & Poor's including its subsidiary corporations ("S&P") is a division of
The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Reproduction of this data in any form is prohibited without S&P's prior written permission.
**Source: Wilshire Associates Incorporated, www.wilshire.com
Research Division
10
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
updated through
02/05/09
U.S. Financial Data
Crude Oil Spot Prices
West Texas Intermediate, Averages of Daily Figures
Dollars per barrel
150
130
110
90
70
50
30
Dec
Feb
Jan
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
2007
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Feb
Jan
2008
2009
Crude Oil Futures Prices
West Texas Intermediate
Dollars per barrel
58
54
50
01/28/2009
02/04/2009
46
42
38
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
2009
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Feb
Jan
2010
Research Division
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
11
updated through
02/05/09
U.S. Financial Data
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Henry Hub, Averages of Daily Figures
Dollars per million btu
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
Dec
Feb
Jan
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
2007
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Feb
Jan
2008
2009
Natural Gas Futures Prices
Henry Hub
Dollars per million btu
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
02/04/2009
5.0
4.5
01/28/2009
4.0
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
2009
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Feb
Jan
2010
Research Division
12
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
updated through
02/05/09
U.S. Financial Data
Trade-Weighted Exchange Rate Indexes
Averages of Daily Figures
March 1973=100
January 1987=100
95
115
90
110
85
105
Broad Index (right scale)
80
100
75
95
Major Index (left scale)
70
90
65
85
Dec
Feb
Jan
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
2007
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Feb
Jan
2008
2009
Exchange Rates
Averages of Daily Figures
Euro/US$
Yen/US$
0.90
116
0.85
112
Japan (right scale)
0.80
108
0.75
104
0.70
100
0.65
96
Euro (left scale)
0.60
92
0.55
88
Dec
Jan
Feb
2007
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
2008
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Feb
Jan
2009
Research Division
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
13
updated through
02/05/09
U.S. Financial Data
Currency Component of M1
Averages of Daily Figures, Seasonally Adjusted
Billions of dollars
840
830
820
810
800
790
780
770
760
750
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
2007
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Feb
Jan
2008
2009
Savings and Small Time Deposits
Averages of Daily Figures, Seasonally Adjusted
Billions of dollars
Billions of dollars
1420
5300
1380
5100
1340
4900
1300
4700
Small Time (left scale)
1260
4500
1220
4300
1180
4100
1140
3900
Savings (right scale)
1100
3700
Dec
2007
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
2008
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Feb
Jan
2009
Research Division
14
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
updated through
02/05/09
U.S. Financial Data
Institutional and Retail Money Funds
Averages of Daily Figures, Seasonally Adjusted
Billions of dollars
Billions of dollars
2700
2300
2500
2100
2300
1900
Institutional Money (left scale)
2100
1700
1900
1500
1700
1300
1500
1100
Retail Money (right scale)
1300
900
1100
700
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
2007
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Nov
Oct
Dec
Feb
Jan
2008
2009
Total Borrowings from Federal Reserve Banks
Averages of Daily Figures
Billions of dollars
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Dec
Jan
Feb
2007
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2008
Feb
Jan
2009
Note: Total borrowings include loans to depository institutions for primary, secondary, and seasonal credit, primary dealer and other
broker-dealer credit. This category also contains asset-backed commercial paper money market mutual fund liquidity facility,
credit extended to American International Group, Inc., and other credit extensions. Term auction credit is excluded.
Research Division
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
15
updated through
02/05/09
U.S. Financial Data
Reserve Bank Credit and Federal Reserve Holdings of U.S. Treasury Securities
Averages of Daily Figures
Billions of dollars
2400
2100
1800
1500
1200
Reserve Bank Credit
900
U.S. Treasury Securities
600
300
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
2007
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Feb
Jan
2008
2009
Term Auction Credit
Averages of Daily Figures
Billions of dollars
480
420
360
300
240
180
120
60
0
Dec
2007
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
2008
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Feb
Jan
2009
Research Division
16
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
updated through
02/05/09
U.S. Financial Data
Bank Loans and Credit
All Commercial Banks in the United States, Seasonally Adjusted
Billions of dollars
Billions of dollars
10300
8500
10050
8250
9800
8000
Bank Credit (left scale)
9550
7750
9300
7500
9050
7250
Loans and Leases (right scale)
8800
7000
8550
6750
8300
6500
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
2007
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Feb
Jan
2008
2009
Commercial and Industrial Loans
Seasonally Adjusted
Billions of dollars
Billions of dollars
1650
1100
1600
1050
1550
1000
All Banks (left scale)
1500
950
1450
900
1400
850
1350
800
Large Banks (right scale)
1300
750
1250
700
Dec
Jan
Feb
2007
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
2008
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Feb
Jan
2009
Recent developments in the financial sector resulted in an unusually large increase in commercial bank assets and liabilities in September
and October 2008. For more information, please see the notes to the Oct. 10, 2008, H.8 release at http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h8/20081010/.
Research Division
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
17
updated through
02/05/09
U.S. Financial Data
Commercial Paper of Nonfinancial Companies
Seasonally Adjusted
Billions of dollars
230
220
210
200
190
180
170
160
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
2007
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Feb
Jan
2008
2009
Commercial Paper: Financial and Asset-Backed
Seasonally Adjusted
Billions of dollars
1000
900
Financial
800
Asset-Backed
700
600
500
Dec
2007
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
2008
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Feb
Jan
2009
Research Division
18
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
updated through
02/05/09
U.S. Financial Data
Interest Rates
Percent
30-Day
Comm.
Paper
90-Day
CDs
Nov 14
0.64
2.27
2.31
6.37
9.26
21
0.49
2.26
2.18
5.99
9.14
28
0.47
2.22
2.17
5.76
9.12
5.39
0.56
0.07
1.14
2.06
3.10
3.60
5
0.45
2.23
2.02
5.31
8.78
5.58
0.49
0.04
0.88
1.63
2.66
3.15
12
0.31
2.02
1.98
5.35
8.72
5.85
0.13
0.02
0.85
1.62
2.67
3.09
19
0.11
1.62
1.64
4.95
8.30
5.46
0.15
0.03
0.71
1.36
2.26
2.72
26
0.14
1.38
1.57
4.71
8.09
5.33
0.11
0.02
0.89
1.50
2.18
2.62
2
0.12
1.35
1.47
4.74
8.07
5.24
0.10
0.09
0.79
1.55
2.24
2.68
9
0.09
1.07
1.45
5.04
8.23
5.02
0.10
0.11
0.80
1.62
2.48
3.03
16
0.13
0.85
1.31
4.89
7.97
4.80
0.10
0.12
0.74
1.42
2.30
2.93
23
0.20
1.05
1.41
5.10
8.15
5.13
0.20
0.11
0.77
1.58
2.56
3.17
30
0.20
1.06
1.50
5.23
8.22
5.16
0.19
0.19
0.90
1.74
2.75
3.45
0.20
1.19
1.64
5.27
8.18
.
0.23
0.30
0.94
1.85
2.87
3.59
Dec
Jan
Feb
6*
Federal
Funds
3-Month
Treasury
Bill
2-Year
Treasury
Securities
5-Year
Treasury
Securities
10-Year
Treasury
Securities
30-Year
Treasury
Securities
5.14
0.28
0.21
1.23
2.41
3.78
4.24
5.13
0.36
0.07
1.11
2.12
3.38
3.93
2-Year
Corporate Corporate Municipal
Interest
Rate Swap Aaa Bonds Baa Bonds
Bonds
*Averages of rates available
Money Stock and Components
Reserves and Base
Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted
Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted
Dec 15
Jan
M2
MZM
Currency
Small
Time
8141.0
9136.6
811.0
1368.0
Savings
Retail
Money
Institutional
Money
4081.7
1090.8
2363.6
22
8172.9
9187.7
812.0
1373.7
4110.8
1090.6
2388.5
29
8196.2
9236.9
815.4
1374.6
4136.2
1089.4
2415.3
Nov
Dec
5
Adjusted
Monetary
Base
Adjusted
Reserves
1264.992
466.762
19
1505.035
702.005
3
1493.915
697.535
5
8213.8
9316.7
818.2
1374.1
4105.6
1095.9
2477.0
17
1671.269
881.240
12
8222.0
9315.4
819.7
1372.0
4150.2
1098.3
2465.4
31
1690.963
868.314
19
8256.9
9379.5
823.4
1369.9
4245.9
1091.2
2492.5
14
1770.378
941.166
26
8276.7
9364.1
829.3
1366.3
4279.7
1082.3
2453.7
28
1749.921
916.317
Bank Loans and Credit
Jan
Exchange Rates
Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted
Major
Exchange
Broad
Exchange Exchange
Rate:
Euro/$
Rate Index Rate Index
Exchange
Rate:
Yen/$
Bank
Credit
Loans and
Leases
C&I
Loans
(All)
C&I
Loans
(Large)
Comm.
Paper
(sa)
Total
Borrowings
Dec 24
9914.2
7153.4
1578.3
803.9
203.4
196.868
Dec 19
78.8
106.6
0.714
89.6
31
9808.5
7090.6
1564.8
790.9
187.6
187.770
26
79.1
106.9
0.715
90.5
Jan
Feb
7
9776.5
7090.2
1564.6
790.2
223.8
185.801
2
79.0
107.1
0.712
90.6
14
9843.2
7081.4
1568.8
791.4
205.4
160.723
Jan
9
79.4
107.3
0.736
92.3
21
9800.9
7067.2
1570.9
792.5
203.3
148.298
16
81.2
109.3
0.757
89.6
28
.
.
.
.
205.2
150.009
23
82.8
110.6
0.775
88.8
4
.
.
.
.
213.6
153.692
30
81.4
109.9
0.765
89.5
Research Division
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
19
U.S. Financial Data
Definitions
M1: The sum of currency held outside the vaults of depository
institutions, Federal Reserve Banks, and the U.S. Treasury; travelers
checks; and demand and other checkable deposits issued by financial
institutions (except demand deposits due to the Treasury and depository
institutions), minus cash items in process of collection and Federal
Reserve float.
M2: M1 plus savings deposits (including money market deposit
accounts) and small-denomination (less than $100,000) time deposits
issued by financial institutions; and shares in retail money market mutual
funds (funds with initial investments of less than $50,000), net of
retirement accounts.
M3: M2 plus large-denomination ($100,000 or more) time deposits;
repurchase agreements issued by depository institutions; Eurodollar
deposits, specifically, dollar-denominated deposits due to nonbank
U.S. addresses held at foreign offices of U.S. banks worldwide and all
banking offices in Canada and the United Kingdom; and institutional
money market mutual funds (funds with initial investments of $50,000
or more).
Notes
Cover Page: Economic forecasts are median responses from the
Thomson Reuters Weekly Economic Survey, which is sent out to 20
to 25 Wall Street economists each week (usually on Tuesday). These
forecasts are released on Friday—at which time, Thursday’s USFD
cover page will be updated.
Page 3: Adjusted Monetary Base equals the sum of currency in
circulation outside Federal Reserve Banks and the U.S. Treasury,
deposits of depository financial institutions at Federal Reserve Banks,
and an adjustment for the effects of changes in statutory reserve
requirements on the quantity of base money held by depositories.
This series is a spliced chain index; see Anderson and Rasche (1996a,
1996b, 2001, 2003).
Page 4: Adjusted Reserves is defined as the sum of vault cash and
Federal Reserve Bank deposits held by depository institutions and an
adjustment for the effects of changes in statutory reserve requirements
on the quantity of base money held by depositories. This series, a
spliced chain index, is numerically larger than the Board of Governors’
measure, which excludes vault cash not used to satisfy statutory reserve
requirements and Federal Reserve Bank deposits used to satisfy required
clearing balance contracts; see Anderson and Rasche (1996a, 2001,
2003).
Page 5: MZM includes the zero maturity, or immediately available,
components of M3. MZM equals M2 minus small-denomination time
deposits, plus institutional money market mutual funds (that is, the
money market mutual funds included in M3 but excluded from M2).
The label MZM, or “Money, Zero Maturity,” was coined by William
Poole (1991) for this aggregate, proposed earlier by Motley (1988).
Readers are cautioned that since early 1994 the level and growth of
M1 have been depressed by retail sweep programs that reclassify
transactions deposits (demand deposits and other checkable deposits)
as savings deposits overnight, thereby reducing banks’ required
reserves; see Anderson and Rasche (2001) and
research.stlouisfed.org/aggreg/swdata.html.
Page 7: Current data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.15
release, except for the Intended Federal Funds Rate. Federal Funds
Rate represents seven-day averages for the week ending two days
earlier than the date shown in the release.
Page 8: 10-Year Inflation-Indexed Treasury Yield is the most
recently issued inflation-indexed bond of 10-year original maturity.
Research Division
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
10-Year Inflation-Indexed Treasury Yield Spread equals the difference between the yield on the most recently issued 10-year inflationindexed bond and the unadjusted 10-Year Treasury Note Yield of
similar maturity.
Page 9: Rates on Federal Funds Futures Contracts trace through
time the yield on three specific contracts. Rates on Federal Funds
Futures on Selected Dates displays a single day’s snapshot of yields
for contracts expiring in the months shown on the horizontal axis.
Page 11: Crude Oil (West Texas intermediate) spot and futures prices
are listed in the Wall Street Journal. Spot Prices are weekly averages
of daily prices; Futures Prices are usually taken on Wednesday.
Page 12: Natural Gas (Henry Hub) spot and futures prices are listed
in the Wall Street Journal. Spot Prices are weekly averages of daily
prices; Futures Prices are usually taken on Wednesday.
Page 13: Data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 release.
The Major Index comprises 7 currencies. The Broad Index comprises
the Major Index plus 19 additional currencies. Further details may
be found at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/summary/.
Page 14: Data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.6 release.
Savings Deposits is the sum of money market deposit accounts and
passbook and statement savings. Small Time Deposits have a minimum
initial maturity of 7 days. Savings deposits and small time deposits
are at all depository institutions.
Page 15: Data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.6 and H.4.1
releases. Retail Money Funds are included in M2. Institutional
Money Funds are not part of M2; they used to be included in M3,
which was discontinued as of March 23, 2006.
See www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/discm3.htm.
Total Borrowings include loans to depository institutions for (i)
primary, secondary, and seasonal credit and (ii) primary dealer and
other broker-dealer credit. This category also includes the assetbacked commercial paper money market mutual fund liquidity facility,
credit extended to American International Group, Inc., and other
credit extensions. Term auction credit is excluded. Data and recent
information regarding Federal Reserve lending programs appear in
the Federal Reserve Board's H.4.1 release at
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/.
Page 16: Federal Reserve Holdings of U.S. Treasury Securities
include nominal and inflation-indexed securities and the compensation
that adjusts for the effect of inflation on the original face value of
inflation-indexed securities (inflation compensation). Term Auction
Credit are collateralized, term funds (28-day) that are auctioned to
depository institutions under the temporary Term Auction Facility.
Term Auction Credit became a Federal Reserve balance sheet item as
of December 27, 2007. For more information on the Term Auction
Facility, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/taf.htm.
Page 17: Data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.8 release.
Bank Loans and Credit include foreign-related institutions. Bank
Credit includes loans and leases and securities. All Banks includes
foreign-related institutions. Large Banks are domestically chartered
banks (adjusted for mergers) and report on a weekly basis.
Page 18: Current data appear at
www.federalreserve.gov/releases/cp/outstandings.htm.
Page 19: Treasury Security yields are Treasury constant maturities
as reported in the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System’s H.15 release.
The 3-Month Treasury Bill yield is the secondary market yield from
the H.15 release. Federal Funds represents seven-day averages for
the week ending two days earlier than the date shown in the table.
Municipal Bonds represents Bond Buyer’s Average Index of 20
municipal bonds, Thursday data.
20
U.S. Financial Data
Sources
References
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Monetary aggregates and components: H.6 release. Bank credit: H.8
release. Total Borrowings and Selected Reserve Balance Sheet
Items: H.4.1 release. Interest rates: H.15 release. Exchange rates:
H.10 release. Commercial paper: Board of Governors web site.
Anderson, Richard G. and Robert H. Rasche (1996a). “A Revised
Measure of the St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base,” Federal
Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, March/April, 78(2), pp. 3-13.
Chicago Board of Trade
Federal funds futures contract.
Dow Jones Indexes
Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Adjusted monetary base, adjusted reserves, and MZM.
____ and ____(1996b). “Measuring the Adjusted Monetary Base in
an Era of Financial Change,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Review, November/ December, 78(6), pp. 3-37.
____ and ____(2001). “Retail Sweep Programs and Bank Reserves,
1994-1999,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review,
January/February, pp. 51-72.
NASDAQ Stock Market, Incorporated
NASDAQ Composite®.
____ and ____ , with Jeffrey Loesel (2003). “A Reconstruction of the
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base and
Reserves,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review,
September/October, 85(5), pp. 39-70.
Standard & Poor’s
Standard & Poor’s 500 composite index.
Motley, Brian (1988). “Should M2 Be Redefined?” Federal Reserve
Bank of San Francisco Economic Review, Winter, pp. 33-51.
U.S. Department of the Treasury
U.S. inflation-indexed security yields.
Poole, William (1991). Statement before the Subcommittee on
Domestic Monetary Policy of the Committee on Banking, Finance
and Urban Affairs, U.S. House of Representatives, November 6,
1991. Government Printing Office, Serial No. 102-82.
Wall Street Journal
Oil (West Texas intermediate) and natural gas (Henry Hub) spot
and futures prices.
Note: Articles from this Bank’s Review are available on the Internet
at research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/.
Wilshire Associates Incorporated (www.wilshire.com)
Wilshire 5000 ®.
21
Research Division
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
@FedFRASER