Full text of U.S. Financial Data : February 27, 2003
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February 27, 2003 USFinancialData THE WEEK’S HIGHLIGHTS: ■ In January, the value of new orders to manufacturers for durable goods rose $5.5 billion, or 3.3 percent. This was the largest increase in six months. After falling 2 percent in December, shipments of manufactured durable goods rose 3.5 percent in January. At an annual rate, January’s shipments were 6.3 percent above the annualized rate seen during the fourth quarter of 2002. The value of unfilled orders fell 0.2 percent in January to $476.4 billion, its lowest level since September 1996. ■ New single-family home sales fell 15.1 percent in January to an annualized rate of 914,000 units. January’s decline was the largest in nine years. However, sales of existing homes totaled 6.09 million units (annual rate) in January, up 3 percent from December and the highest rate on record. The Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation reported that the contract interest rate on 30-year conventional mortgages averaged 5.84 percent for the week ending Feb. 21, the lowest rate on record (back to September 1978). ■ The Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence fell 14.8 percentage points in February to 64.0 percent (1985=100). This was the lowest level since October 1993. The Board’s help-wanted advertising index rose 1 percentage point in January to 40 percent (1987=100), the first increase in four months. ■ The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that the U.S. retail price of gasoline averaged 165.8 cents per gallon for the week ending Feb. 24. This was down 0.2 cents per gallon from the previous week but up 54.2 cents per gallon from a year earlier. All data are seasonally adjusted unless otherwise indicated. U.S. Financial Data will continue to be mailed to all subscribers through June 27, 2003. 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Adjusted Monetary Base Averages of Daily Figures Seasonally Adjusted 730 Billions of Dollars 02/03 Dec 11 25 Jan 8 22 Feb 5 19 720 710 Billions of Dollars Billions 695.749 694.240 700.012 711.060 711.252 711.858 730 720 710 700 700 690 690 680 680 670 670 660 660 650 650 640 640 2 16 30 13 27 13 27 10 24 Jan Feb Mar Apr 8 22 5 May 19 Jun 3 17 31 14 28 11 25 Jul Aug Sep 9 23 Oct 6 20 Nov 4 18 Dec 1 15 29 12 26 12 26 Jan 2002 Feb Mar 2003 The adjusted monetary base is the sum of Federal Reserve deposits and vault cash held by domestic depository institutions, currency held by the public, and an adjustment for the effect of changes in reserve requirement ratios. The monetary base series includes Federal Reserve deposits used to satisfy clearing balance contracts. Data are computed by this Bank. A detailed description of the adjusted monetary base is available from this Bank. Recent data are preliminary. Adjusted Monetary Base Compounded annual rates of change, average of two maintenance periods ending: To the average of two maintenance periods ending: 2/20/02 7/24/02 6.3 8/21/02 6.0 6.4 9/18/02 5.7 5.8 4.2 10/16/02 5.5 5.5 4.1 3.8 11/13/02 5.5 5.4 4.3 4.2 4.5 12/25/02 5.3 5.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 1/22/03 6.5 6.9 6.7 7.1 7.9 9.1 10.7 2/19/03 6.9 7.3 7.4 7.8 8.6 9.6 11.0 5/15/02 7/24/02 8/21/02 9/18/02 10/16/02 11/13/02 12/25/02 16.5 Prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Money Zero Maturity (MZM) Averages of Daily Figures 6400 Seasonally Adjusted Billions of Dollars 2003 Jan 13 20 27 Feb 3 10 17 6200 Billions of Dollars Billions 6118.8 6131.3 6173.5 6172.6 6165.7 6201.1 6400 6200 6000 6000 5800 5800 5600 5600 7 21 4 Jan 18 Feb 4 18 Mar 1 15 29 13 27 10 24 Apr May 8 22 5 Jun Jul 2002 19 Aug 2 16 30 14 28 11 25 Sep Oct Nov 9 23 6 Dec 20 3 Jan 17 Feb 2003 3 17 31 Mar MZM is M2 minus total small−denomination time deposits, plus institutional money funds, which are included in the non−M2 component of M3. Each component is seasonally adjusted. Money Zero Maturity (MZM) Compounded annual rates of change, average of four weeks ending: To the average of four weeks ending: 2/18/02 7/15/02 7.6 8/19/02 8.3 10.9 9/16/02 8.0 9.7 8.8 10/14/02 7.3 8.3 6.9 4.2 11/18/02 7.8 8.9 8.1 6.9 7.4 12/16/02 9.1 10.5 10.5 10.3 11.7 16.0 1/20/03 7.9 8.7 8.1 7.4 7.7 9.2 8.0 2/17/03 8.1 8.8 8.4 7.8 8.2 9.5 8.8 5/20/02 7/15/02 8/19/02 9/16/02 10/14/02 11/18/02 12/16/02 3.4 Prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Adjusted Reserves Seasonally Adjusted 100 Billions of Dollars 02/03 Dec 11 25 Jan 8 22 Feb 5 19 90 Billions of Dollars Billions 72.454 72.483 71.849 76.713 76.149 71.753 100 90 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 2 16 30 13 27 13 27 10 24 Jan Feb Mar Apr 8 22 5 May 19 Jun 3 17 31 14 28 11 25 Jul Aug Sep 9 23 Oct 6 20 Nov 4 18 Dec 1 15 29 12 26 12 26 Jan 2002 Feb Mar 2003 Adjusted reserves is the difference between the adjusted monetary base and the currency component of M1. Adjusted Reserves Compounded annual rates of change, average of two maintenance periods ending: To the average of two maintenance periods ending: 2/20/02 7/24/02 −7.5 8/21/02 −9.9 −9.8 9/18/02 −4.4 −0.4 4.5 10/16/02 −4.3 −0.9 1.9 16.8 11/13/02 −3.1 0.3 3.2 13.4 1.8 12/25/02 0.7 5.1 9.7 18.4 12.7 19.8 1/22/03 3.4 8.4 13.6 21.7 17.9 24.7 32.5 2/19/03 2.7 6.9 10.8 17.1 13.2 17.2 20.3 5/15/02 7/24/02 8/21/02 9/18/02 10/16/02 11/13/02 12/25/02 14.1 Prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Money Stock (M1) and Total Checkable Deposits Averages of Daily Figures Seasonally Adjusted 1400 Billions of Dollars Billions of Dollars M1 2003 Jan 13 20 27 Feb 3 10 17 1350 1300 875 TCD Billions 1194.0 1213.3 1227.7 1240.7 1218.8 1235.3 2003 Jan 13 20 27 Feb 3 10 17 Billions 557.3 574.9 587.9 599.6 576.5 591.7 825 775 1250 725 M1 (left scale) 1200 675 1150 625 TCD (right scale) 1100 575 1050 525 7 21 4 Jan 18 4 Feb 18 1 15 29 13 27 10 24 Apr Mar May 8 22 5 Jul Jun 19 2 Aug 16 30 14 28 11 25 Sep Oct Nov 9 23 6 Dec 20 3 Jan 17 3 Feb 2002 17 31 Mar 2003 M1 is the sum of currency held by the nonbank public, total checkable deposits, and travelers checks. Total checkable deposits is the sum Fix of demand deposits and other checkable deposits at depository institutions. Current data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.6 release. Currency Component of M1 Averages of Daily Figures Seasonally Adjusted 700 Billions of Dollars Billions of Dollars Compounded annual rates of change, average of the four weeks ending February 17, 2003, from the four weeks ending: 680 7.4 6.9 6.2 6.7 7.2 7.8 8.1 Feb 18, 2002 May 20, 2002 Aug 19, 2002 Sep 16, 2002 Oct 14, 2002 Nov 18, 2002 Dec 16, 2002 660 640 2003 Jan 13 20 27 Feb 3 10 17 Billions 629.0 630.8 632.3 633.4 634.6 636.0 700 680 660 640 620 620 600 600 580 580 7 21 Jan 4 18 Feb 4 18 Mar 1 15 29 13 Apr May 27 10 24 8 22 Jul Jun 2002 5 19 Aug 2 16 30 14 Sep Oct 28 11 25 Nov 9 23 Dec 6 20 Jan 3 17 Feb 3 17 31 Mar 2003 Current data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.6 release. Fix Prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Yields on Selected Securities Averages of Daily Figures 8.00 Percent Percent 7.00 8.00 7.00 Corporate Aaa Bonds 6.00 6.00 5.00 5.00 Prime Rate 4.00 4.00 2−Year Interest Rate Swap 3.00 3.00 2.00 2.00 Commercial Paper 1.00 1.00 4 18 1 Jan 2002/2003 Dec 6 13 20 27 Jan 3 10 17 24 31 Feb 7 14 21 28 15 Feb 1 15 29 12 26 10 24 Mar Apr 7 May 21 5 19 Jun Jul 2002 2 16 30 13 27 11 25 Aug Sep 8 Oct 22 Nov 6 20 3 Dec 17 31 14 28 14 28 Jan Feb 2003 Mar 30−Day Commercial Paper 90−Day CDs 2−Year Interest Rate Swap Corporate Aaa Bonds Corporate Baa Bonds Municipal Bonds * 1.29 1.32 1.32 1.33 1.28 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.24 1.23 1.24 1.25 1.24 1.36 1.34 1.34 1.35 1.31 1.31 1.30 1.28 1.27 1.27 1.26 1.27 1.27 2.37 2.20 2.16 2.04 2.00 2.10 2.06 1.97 2.00 1.98 1.90 1.87 1.83 6.33 6.20 6.23 6.14 6.16 6.24 6.22 6.11 6.09 5.99 5.97 5.96 5.94 7.55 7.45 7.45 7.38 7.37 7.44 7.39 7.30 7.21 7.10 7.09 7.06 7.01 4.94 4.83 4.82 4.79 4.84 4.94 4.95 4.89 4.90 4.88 4.83 4.79 N.A. Current data, from the Federal Reserve Board’s H.15 release, are averages of rates available for the week ending February 28, 2003 . * Bond Buyer’s Average Index of 20 municipal bonds, Thursday data. Prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Selected Interest Rates Averages of Daily Figures 6.00 Percent Percent 5.00 6.00 5.00 10−Year Treasury Securities 4.00 4.00 3.00 3.00 Federal Funds Rate 2.00 2.00 Intended Federal Funds Rate 3−Month Treasury Bill 1.00 1.00 4 18 1 Jan 15 Feb 2002/2003 Dec 6 13 20 27 Jan 3 10 17 24 31 Feb 7 14 21 28 ** 1 15 29 12 26 10 24 Mar Federal Funds * 1.24 1.23 1.27 1.23 1.20 1.20 1.26 1.23 1.24 1.29 1.22 1.30 1.24 Apr 7 May 21 5 19 Jun Jul 2002 2 16 30 13 27 11 25 Aug Sep Oct 8 22 Nov 6 20 3 Dec 17 31 14 28 14 28 Jan Feb 2003 Mar 3−Month Treasury Bill 2−Year Treasury Securities 5−Year Treasury Securities 10−Year Treasury Securities Treasury Long−Term Average 1.20 1.19 1.20 1.16 1.20 1.18 1.17 1.15 1.16 1.15 1.16 1.17 1.19 2.01 1.87 1.83 1.71 1.70 1.80 1.75 1.67 1.72 1.69 1.63 1.62 1.58 3.24 3.06 3.02 2.89 2.91 3.12 3.11 2.96 3.01 3.02 2.94 2.87 2.78 4.17 4.04 4.05 3.92 3.94 4.10 4.10 3.97 4.01 3.98 3.95 3.89 3.82 5.16 5.04 5.10 4.99 5.00 5.13 5.11 5.00 5.00 4.95 4.97 4.95 4.89 Current data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.15 release, except for the intended federal funds rate. * Seven−day averages for week ending two days earlier than date shown. **Averages of rates available. Prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Money Stock (M2) and Money Zero Maturity Averages of Daily Figures 6400 Seasonally Adjusted Billions of Dollars Billions of Dollars 6400 M2 2003 Jan 13 20 27 Feb 3 10 17 6200 Billions 5798.2 5825.1 5846.2 5850.7 5861.0 5891.8 6200 MZM 6000 6000 5800 5800 M2 MZM 5600 2003 Jan 13 20 27 Feb 3 10 17 Billions 6118.8 6131.3 6173.5 6172.6 6165.7 6201.1 5400 5600 5400 7 21 4 Jan 18 Feb 4 18 Mar 1 15 29 13 27 10 24 Apr May 8 22 5 Jun Jul 2002 19 Aug 2 16 30 14 28 11 25 Sep Oct Nov 9 23 6 Dec 20 3 Jan 17 Feb 2003 3 17 31 Mar M2 is the sum of M1, savings (including money market deposit accounts), small time deposits and retail money funds. Current data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.6 release. Money Stock (M2) Compounded annual rates of change, average of four weeks ending: To the average of four weeks ending: 2/18/02 7/15/02 5.6 8/19/02 6.5 9.6 9/16/02 6.4 8.7 8.3 10/14/02 6.5 8.4 7.9 6.3 11/18/02 6.8 8.5 8.2 7.4 8.2 12/16/02 6.5 7.8 7.4 6.5 6.7 6.6 1/20/03 6.1 7.2 6.6 5.7 5.8 5.4 3.4 2/17/03 6.7 7.9 7.5 7.0 7.2 7.3 6.6 5/20/02 7/15/02 8/19/02 9/16/02 10/14/02 11/18/02 12/16/02 7.9 Prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Savings and Small Time Deposits Averages of Daily Figures Seasonally Adjusted 1250 Billions of Dollars Billions of Dollars 3000 Small Time 2003 Jan 13 20 27 Feb 3 10 17 1150 1050 Billions 874.7 873.3 872.6 871.4 869.4 868.0 2900 2800 2700 950 Small Time (left scale) 2600 850 Savings 750 2003 Jan 13 20 27 Feb 3 10 17 Savings Deposits (right scale) 650 2500 Billions 2802.6 2811.8 2814.0 2810.6 2848.0 2863.1 2400 2300 550 7 21 4 Jan 18 4 Feb 18 1 15 29 13 27 10 24 Apr Mar May 8 22 5 Jul Jun 19 2 Aug 16 30 14 28 11 25 Oct Sep Nov 9 23 6 Dec 20 3 Jan 17 3 Feb 2002 17 31 Mar 2003 Savings deposits and small time deposits are at all depository institutions. Fix Large Time Deposits and Retail Money Funds Averages of Daily Figures Seasonally Adjusted 1200 Billions of Dollars Billions of Dollars Large Time 2003 Jan 13 20 27 3 Feb 10 17 1100 1200 Retail Money Billions 806.5 821.3 822.5 833.5 835.9 826.6 2003 Jan 13 20 27 3 Feb 10 17 Billions 927.0 926.7 931.9 928.0 924.7 925.5 1100 1000 1000 Retail Money 900 900 800 800 Large Time 700 700 7 21 Jan 4 18 Feb 4 18 Mar 1 15 29 13 Apr May 27 10 24 8 22 Jul Jun 2002 5 19 Aug 2 16 30 14 Sep Oct 28 11 25 Nov 9 23 Dec 6 20 Jan 3 17 3 Feb 17 31 Mar 2003 Large time deposits and retail money funds are at all despository institutions. Large time deposits are those issued in denominations of $100,000 or more. Retail money funds were originally called general purpose and broker/dealer money market funds. Prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Fix Total Borrowings From Federal Reserve Banks Averages of Daily Figures 1.6 Billions of Dollars Billions 0.019 0.052 0.015 0.031 0.019 0.013 2003 Jan 22 29 Feb 5 12 19 26 1.4 1.2 Billions of Dollars 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 2 16 30 13 27 13 27 10 24 Jan Feb Mar Apr 8 22 5 May 19 3 17 31 14 28 11 25 Jul Jun Aug 9 23 6 Oct Sep 20 4 Nov 18 1 15 29 12 26 12 26 Dec Jan 2002 Feb Mar 2003 As of January 9, 2003, borrowings include primary, secondary, and seasonal credit. Prior to that, borrowings include seasonal, adjustment, and extended credit. Fix Bank Loans and Credit All Commercial Banks in the United States * Seasonally Adjusted 6600 Billions of Dollars Billions of Dollars Bank Credit 2003 Jan 8 15 22 29 Feb 5 12 6400 6200 5250 Loans & Leases Billions 5884.2 5886.7 5898.4 5893.4 5935.7 5955.6 2003 Jan 8 15 22 29 Feb 5 12 Billions 4160.0 4167.3 4174.0 4181.8 4189.9 4199.1 5050 4850 6000 4650 5800 4450 Bank Credit (left scale) ** 5600 4250 5400 4050 Loans and Leases (right scale) 5200 3850 2 16 30 13 Jan Feb 27 13 27 10 24 Mar Apr 8 22 May 5 19 3 17 31 Jul Jun 2002 14 28 11 25 Aug Sep 9 23 Oct 6 20 Nov 4 18 Dec 1 15 29 12 26 12 26 Jan Feb Mar 2003 Current data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.8 release. * Includes foreign−related institutions ** Includes loans and leases and securities Prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Fix Commercial Paper of Nonfinancial Companies Not Seasonally Adjusted 300 Billions of Dollars 2003 Jan 22 29 Feb 5 12 19 26 250 Billions of Dollars Billions 156.5 150.3 155.2 149.7 154.0 153.4 300 250 200 200 150 150 100 100 2 16 30 13 27 13 27 10 24 Jan Feb Apr Mar 8 22 5 May 19 3 17 31 14 28 11 25 Jul Jun Aug Sep 9 23 6 Oct 20 4 Nov 18 1 Dec 15 29 12 26 12 26 Jan Feb 2002 Mar 2003 Current data appear at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/cp/table1.htm. Fix Commercial and Industrial Loans Seasonally Adjusted 1150 Billions of Dollars Billions of Dollars All Banks 2003 Jan 8 15 22 29 Feb 5 12 1125 1100 1075 625 Large Banks Billions 961.0 961.4 962.2 959.9 954.6 952.8 2003 Jan 8 15 22 29 Feb 5 12 Billions 478.1 477.6 476.3 474.4 470.9 471.0 600 575 550 1050 525 Large Banks (right scale) ** 1025 500 1000 475 975 450 All Banks (left scale) * 950 425 925 400 2 16 30 Jan 13 27 13 Feb Mar 27 10 24 Apr 8 22 May 5 19 3 17 31 14 Jul Jun 2002 Aug 28 11 25 Sep 9 23 Oct 6 20 Nov 4 18 Dec 1 15 Jan 29 12 26 12 Feb 26 Mar 2003 Current data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.8 release. * Includes foreign−related institutions. ** Weekly reporting, domestically chartered banks. Fix Prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Trade−Weighted Exchange Rate Indexes Averages of Daily Figures 125 March 1973=100 2003 Jan 22 29 Feb 5 12 19 26 120 115 January 1997=100 Major 95.7 94.9 95.1 95.6 95.2 94.5 2003 Jan 22 29 Feb 5 12 19 26 Broad 124.0 123.9 124.1 124.6 124.2 123.8 Broad Index (right scale) 110 145 140 135 130 105 125 100 120 Major Currency Index (left scale) 95 115 90 110 2 16 30 13 27 13 27 10 24 Jan Feb Mar Apr 8 22 May 5 19 Jun 3 17 31 14 28 11 25 Jul Aug Sep 9 23 Oct 6 20 Nov 4 18 Dec 1 15 29 12 26 12 26 Jan 2002 Feb Mar 2003 The major currency index (MCI) comprises 7 currencies. The broad index comprises the MCI plus 19 additional currencies. Further details may be found at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/summary/. Prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis