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THE U.S.
ECONOMY
IN 1985
A Summary of
BLS Projections
Bulletin 1809
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
Bureau of Labor Statistics
1974
THE U.S.
ECONOMY
IN 1985
A Summary of
BLS Projections
Bulletin 1809
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
Peter J. Brennan, Secretary
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Julius Shiskin, Commissioner
1974
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Make checks payable to Superintendent of Documents.
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Contents
Page
Introduction. An overview of BLS projections......................................................
Some findings .....................................................................................................
General assumptions ..........................................................................................
Assumptions directly affecting g ro w th ...............................................................
Governmental assumptions..................................................................................
Assumptions about major sectors .....................................................................
Projection methodology ......................................................................................
Qualifications .......................................................................................................
Comparison with 1980 projections.....................................................................
3
3
4
5
5
5
5
6
7
Chapter 1. Population and labor force projections................................................
Projections of population....................................................................................
Fertility fluctuations.............................................................................
Projections of labor fo rc e ....................................................................................
Labor force outlook, 1980-85 ...........................................................................
Projected education of w orkers...................................
8
8
8
10
11
12
Tables:
1. Total population, by age and sex, July 1, 1960, 1972, and
projected to 1980 and 1985 .............................................................;
2. Total labor force, by age and sex, annual average 1960, 1972,
and projected to 1980 and 1985 .........................................................
3. Total labor force participation rates, by age and sex, actual 1960
and 1972 and projected to 1980 and 1985 ........................................
Charts:
1. Average annual rates of change in population and labor force,
1960-72 and 1972-85 .........................................................................
2. Educational attainment of the civilian labor force, March 1972
and projected 1980 and 1985 .............................................................
9
10
11
12
13
Appendixes:
1. Alternative labor force projections.......................................................
2. Assumptions and m ethods...................................................................
15
16
Chapter 2. Projected changes in occupations.........................................................
Growth among white-collar g ro u p s...................................................................
Growth among blue-collar g ro u p s.....................................................................
Service workers ..............................................
Farm w orkers.......................................................................................................
Net occupational openings ................................................................................
Implications for trained manpower.....................................................................
18
18
20
21
21
22
22
Page
Chapter 2.—Continued:
Tables:
1. Employment by major occupational group, 1960 and 1972, and
projected 1980 and 1985 .....................................................................
2. Percent distribution of employment, by major occupational group,
1960 and 1972, and projected 1980 and 1985 ..................................
3. Expected changes in major occupational classifications, 1972-85 ..
4. Average annual rate of employment change by major occupational
group, 1960-72 (actual) and 1972-85 (projected) .........................
5. Job openings by major occupational group, 1972-85 .......................
6. Projected supply of college graduates, 1972-85 ..................................
7. Average annual number of earned degrees, actual 1962-72, and
projected for selected periods, 1972-85 ..............................................
Chart:
1. Total degrees awarded, 1962-72, and projected degrees, 1972-85 ..
Chapter 3. Projections of GNP, income, output, and employment...................
Projected economic growth ................................................................................
Gross national product as in co m e.................................
Purchasers of G N P ..............................................................................................
Output and employment......................................................................................
Some implications................................................................................................
Tables:
1. Changes in labor force, employment, productivity, and gross
national product, selected years 1955-72 and projected to
1980 and 1985 .......................................
2. Personal income: sources and disposition, selected years 1955-72
and projected to 1980 and 1985 .........................................................
3. Gross saving and investment, selected years 1955-72 and projected
to 1980 and 1985 ..................................................................................
4. Government revenues and expenditures, selected years and
projected to 1980 and 1985 .................................................................
5. Gross national product and major components by purchasers,
selected years 1955-72 and projected to 1980 and 1985 ...................
6. Gross product originating in various sectors of the private economy,
selected years 1955-72 and projected to 1980 and 1985 ...................
7. Productivity change by sector, average rate during selected periods
1948-72 and projected to 1980 and 1985 ..........................................
8. Average annual hours by sector: average annual rate of change for
selected periods 1948-72 and projected to 1980 and 1985 ...............
9. Total employment, by major sector, selected years 1955-72 and
projected to 1980 and 1985 .................................................................
Charts:
1. Year-to-year changes in total labor force, 1951-85 ...........................
19
19
20
21
22
23
24
23
27
27
30
32
35
40
28
30
31
32
34
36
37
38
39
29
Page
2. Percentage distribution of total employment (counting jobs rather
than workers) for selected years and projected 1980 and 1985 . . . .
40
Appendixes:
A. Projection methods ......................................................................................
B. Comparison of new and earlier 1980 projections......................................
C. Detailed ta b le s ..............................................................................................
43
45
48
Preface
This bulletin summarizes the latest BLS projections of the U.S. economy to
1985. It consists of reprints of four articles from the Monthly Labor Review,
December 1973, and added appendixes containing explanatory notes and detailed
tables. A few minor corrections have been made to some of the figures and text.
This bulletin replaces The U.S. Economy in 1980: A Summary of BLS Projec
tions, Bulletin 1763.
These projections are part of the ongoing program of the Bureau of Labor
Statistics for study of the likely patterns of future economic growth and the
resulting manpower implications. More comprehensive bulletins containing greater
detail and further explanation of methods are scheduled for publication at a later
date.
Introduction: An Overview of BLS Projections
JACK ALTERMAN
Two s i g n i f i c a n t d e p a r t u r e s from past trends are
suggested by the Bureau of Labor Statistics projec
tions of the U.S. economy to 1985 which are pre
sented in the following chapters of this bulletin:
(1) a sharp slowdown in overall economic growth
and (2) a potential oversupply of college graduates,
both to begin in the late 1970’s.
The new projections—like earlier ones published
by the Bureau of Labor Statistics— are designed to
provide a framework for assessing future manpower
requirements and to provide information for career
guidance of young people. The projections also are
used by government, business, and other groups for
a variety of planning and policy development pur
poses.
The projections provide information on long-term
changes in the size, composition, and education of
the labor force; productivity; hours of work; gross
national product and its distribution among the var
ious categories of demand for goods and services;
industry output; and employment and occupational
requirements. The latest set of projections revises
the previously published set of projections to 1980
and extends the estimates to 1985.
This chapter discusses some findings of the new
projections, and summarizes major assumptions and
techniques underlying the projections. In addition, a
summary comparison of the revised projections to
1980 with earlier estimates for that year is also
included. Three other chapters in this bulletin pre
sent projections to 1985 of population and the labor
force (pp. 8-17), occupational changes (pp. 1826), and gross national product, final demand, in
dustry output, and employment (pp. 27-42).
More detailed bulletins covering additional sta
tistical detail for individual industries and occupaJack Alterman is assistant commissioner, Office of Eco
nomic Trends and Labor Conditions, Bureau of Labor Sta
tistics.
tions and an expanded discussion of findings and
methodologies will be published at a later date.
Some findings
By 1985, the U.S. labor force will reach 108
million; the number of persons employed, 103 mil
lion (both totals include military); and gross na
tional product, about $1.9 trillion (1972 dollars).
These results reflect a number of assumptions under
lying the projections and in particular a key assump
tion that basic economic factors will not veer from
long-term paths. Despite these assumptions of con
tinuation of underlying economic forces, demo
graphic changes already in the works presage changes
in growth and trained manpower.
Perhaps the most important departure from the
long-term trend lies in the rather sharp slowdown in
economic growth projected to start about 1978 and
continue into the 1980’s. (Because the projections
are for the specific years 1980 and 1985, the slow
down is dated as covering 1980-85).
The expected dampening in the rate of economic
growth is almost entirely demographic; that is,
caused by changes in the growth of the population
16 and over from which the work force is drawn.
For some time, the birth rate has fallen from the
peak periods of the late 1950’s and early 1960’s.
The slowdown in births will begin to show up in
the smaller number of new entrants into the labor
force towards the end of the 1970’s.
To put this slowdown into perspective, during the
1955-68 period, the labor force grew at an annual
rate of 1.5 perceiit; during the 1968-80 period, it is
projected to grow somewhat faster— 1.8 percent a
year. During 1980-85, however, it will drop sharply
to 1.1 percent and is projected to decline during the
late 1980’s and possibly beyond.
The slowdown in the rate of increase in the labor
force, given continuation of long-run rates of
increase in labor productivity and declines in hours
of work, results directly in a slowdown in the pro
jected increase of real gross national product from
about 4 percent a year in 1968-80 to only 3.2 per
cent in the period after 1980. The 3.2-percent rate
is substantially lower than the economic growth rate
of the post-World War II period.
It should be emphasized that the dampening in
the rate of growth is not due to any assumption
regarding failure to achieve high levels of employ
ment. On the contrary, the projections assume 96
percent of the civilian labor force employed in both
1980 and 1985.
The reduction in the rate of economic growth is
not inevitable. The slowdown in the growth of the
labor force can be offset by either (1) increasing
productivity, (2) reversing the long-term decline
in hours of work and increasing weekly hours, (3)
sharply increasing labor force participation among
younger people and women and delaying retirement
of older workers, or (4) a combination of all three
approaches. It would, however, take a major
national effort to modify historical rates of change
in productivity, hours of work, and labor force par
ticipation rates, given the strength of the basic un
derlying economic and institutional factors.
The projected reduction in the growth rate
obviously has many implications for the entire econ
omy and its parts. It will present major problems in
achieving a balanced transition from a higher to a
lower sustainable growth rate. Business will have to
be much more critical in developing long-range mar
keting, investment, and staffing plans, avoiding
dependence on past trends. Government will have to
deal with a slackening in the growth of revenues,
resulting in increased pressures on budgets. It is true
that demand for governmental functions will also be
dampened somewhat as a result of slower growth in
the labor force and economic activity, but the situa
tion may still require a more critical evaluation of
priorities at all levels of government.
The projected slowdown may have some benefi
cial aspects, however. Chief among these are a
reduction in pollution and waste disposal problems.
Similarly, the long-term problems associated with
increasing demand for energy and natural resources
may be alleviated somewhat. Lastly, a reduced
growth rate may make possible an improved balance
of payments situation resulting from a decline in
imports relative to exports.
The other major departure from historical experi
ence will be the shift in the supply and demand for
college graduates. The projections indicate that the
nation will be moving from a period (in the 1950’s
and 1960’s) when demand for college graduates
outstripped supply to one in the 1970’s when supply
and demand will be roughly in balance. However,
the balance for individual occupations and levels of
education may present serious problems. In the
1980’s, however, we anticipate the supply of gradu
ates (based on the Office of Education’s projec
tions) increasing faster than the demand for them.
The surplus may amount to about 140,000 a year
during the 1980-85 period, or more than 10 per
cent of the projected supply.
The surplus does not mean large-scale unemploy
ment among college graduates. Rather, it is quite
likely that an increasing proportion of college gradu
ates will take positions other than their first choice.
It also may mean a rise in job “requirements” as
college graduates become more generally available.
If steps are not taken to facilitate the transition
from undersupply to oversupply, we may be faced
with a large number of disappointed college gradu
ates and another group of workers with less than a
college education, concerned about competition
from college graduates for promotion to or employ
ment in better paying jobs.
It is possible that the imbalance in the supply-de
mand situation for college-educated workers may
not be as large as projected, because college enroll
ment will slow down as students become aware of
the less favorable job market. This may be offset,
however, by continued strength in the belief that the
contribution of a college education to personal
development and broadened outlook is at least as
important as the professional training acquired.
General assumptions
The projections to 1980 and 1985 are based on a
number of assumptions; some explicit but others,
even more numerous, implicit.
Fiscal, monetary, and manpower training and
educational programs will achieve a satisfactory bal
ance between relatively low unemployment and rela
tive price stability, permitting achievement of the
long-term economic growth rate. The projections
assume a 4-percent unemployment rate (of the civil
ian labor force) and a 3-percent annual increase in
the implicit price deflator for gross national product.
The institutional framework of the American
economy will not change radically.
Economic, social, technological, and scientific
trends will continue, including values placed on
work, education, income, and leisure.
Efforts to solve major domestic problems such as
those of air and water pollution, solid waste dis
posal, urban congestion, inadequate industrial safety,
and energy shortages may consume more produc
tive resources but will not have more than a mar
ginal effect on long-term economic growth.
Assumptions directly affecting growth
Population growth is projected to conform to
Census Series E projections, which provide that fer
tility rates remain at the replacement level. The
projected labor force is derived from the assumed
population by extrapolating future participation
rates for each age-sex group from the 1955-72
trend, tapered so that in 50 years all changes are
reduced to approximately zero.
Average annual hours are assumed to decline by
0.5 percent a year in the agricultural sector, by 0.3
percent a year in the private nonagricultural sector.
Productivity in the private nonfarm economy is
assumed to grow at its long-term rate—2.7 percent
a year. This assumption, combined with a similar
assumption regarding continuation of the long-term
average annual productivity rate of 5.5 percent for
the farm sector, yields an annual rate of increase for
the total private economy of 2.9 percent during
1968-80 but 2.8 percent in 1980-85, due to the
declining relative weight of the farm sector.
Governmental assumptions
All levels of government will expand efforts to
meet a variety of domestic needs, but State and
local government activity will continue to grow rela
tive to Federal activity. It has been further assumed
that Federal, State, and local budgets will be close
to balance by 1980 and 1985 as a result of:
No change in Federal tax legislation other than
that contained in the Tax Reform Act of 1969.
The tax rate for Social Security remains as cur
rently legislated, but the wage base is allowed to
grow with the deflator for consumer expenditures,
thus maintaining a constant real wage base.
Federal transfer payments were assumed in line
with the provisions of Federal legislation through
1975. After that, transfer payments are assumed to
increase in accord with (a) the rate of increase of
the population over 62; (b) the rate of price
increase; and (c) an expansion of 3 percent a year
to cover increased coverage or real benefits.
Increased Federal revenue resulting from growth
in the economy will be used largely to expand Fed
eral grants to State and local governments relative
to other categories of expenditures, although at a
diminishing rate. The substantial increase in Federal
grants will permit State and local governments to
slow the rate of increase in their taxes.
Defense expenditures are assumed to continue to
decline as a proportion of the Federal budget and of
GNP. The size of the Armed Forces will be reduced
to about 2 million and kept at that level.
Federal nondefense purchases of goods and serv
ices are assumed to increase at rates below that of
real GNP, but will account for an increasing share
of total Federal purchases of goods and services.
Assumptions about major sectors
In residential construction, estimates assume a
meeting of housing goals by 1978. Thereafter, resi
dential construction is a constant proportion of real
GNP.
Projected U.S. energy requirements will be
roughly in line with those projected by the U.S.
Department of the Interior in U.S. Energy Through
the Year 2000, December 1972. This means major
reliance on oil imports to close the energy supplydemand gap. (During the last quarter of 1973, cur
tailment of oil supplies from the Mideast raised
questions regarding use of imports to close the supply-demand energy gap over the next few years. It
remains to be seen whether this restriction on oil
imports will continue over the long run and what
implications this may have for the long-term growth
rate and structural changes in the economy result
ing from the effort to develop domestic alternatives
to oil imports.)
In international trade, it is assumed that by 1980
and 1985 the United States will have achieved a
slight surplus in our net export balance, in spite of
increased imports of oil.
Projection methodology
Labor force projections. Development of the 1980
and 1985 projections begins with the labor force.
Based on the Bureau of the Census projections of
population (Series E), labor force estimates are
developed through separate projections of the labor
force participation rates for various groups in the
population, 16 years and above, by age and sex.
The participation rates are then applied to the pro
jected levels of each population group.
Gross national product. GNP is projected as the
product of three major variables: (a) employment
which is based on the projected labor force and an
assumption of a 4-percent civilian unemployment
rate; (b) annual hours per job; and (c) output per
man-hour. The projections are developed separately
for Federal Government, State and local government
(excluding government enterprises), the agricultural
sector, and the private nonagricultural sector and
then aggregated to derive target year GNP.
Distribution of potential GNP. GNP is distributed
into major categories of demand through the use of
a macroeconometric model which starts with poten
tial GNP and develops estimates of government rev
enue, personal income, and business income. The
estimates are then used, along with selected exoge
nous estimates, to develop projections of government
purchases of goods and services, personal consump
tion, and investment expenditures.
Conversion of demand into industry employment.
(a) Major final demand components are distributed
into detailed “bills of goods” item by item, (b) The
potential demand for all final goods and services is
converted into industry output requirements (135industry detail) through the use of interindustry
(input-output) relationships projected to the target
years, (c) Projected industry output is converted
into employment requirements based on estimates of
annual hours per job and output per man-hour, also
projected to the target years.
The projection system contains a number of
checkpoints to see that projections made at different
stages are mutually consistent. Important among
these is the check of employment derived as the
aggregate of the industry employment projections
with total employment used initially. The results of
the input-output employment projections are also
checked and reconciled with an independent set of
industry employment projections derived by regres
sion techniques.
Conversion of industry employment into occupa
tional needs. This process is based on the use of
projected industry occupational patterns and modifi
cation of the initial industry employment projections
to match the detail of the industry-occupational
table (116 industries, 162 occupations). The indus
try occupational patterns are then applied to the
employment projections to derive estimates of occu
pational needs.
Estimates of job openings. These are developed by
combining the growth implied by the occupational
projections with estimates of replacement needs.
These are developed from tables of working life
based on actuarial experience for deaths and general
patterns of labor force participation of each age.
Withdrawals from the labor force can be projected
for men and women separately in each occupation
for which age and sex are known. The net effects of
interoccupational transfers, however, are not known
in systematic fashion; therefore, such data are not
included in estimates of total job openings.
Identification of manpower imbalances. Such imbal
ances are based on analyses of projected occupa
tional requirements and trends in the number of
individuals entering educational or training pro
grams designed to prepare them for specific occupa
tions and on trends in the proportion of those who
complete their education or training and enter the
related occupational field.
Qualifications
Making a set of projections as comprehensive as
those described in the chapters which follow involves
many assumptions, some of which have a great deal
of uncertainty attached to them. It would be possi
ble to make alternative assumptions for each of
these variables and discern the ramifications. How
ever, the combinations and permutations would
quickly make the results incomprehensible. For that
reason, the projections discussed in these chapters are
limited to a basic set of estimates and assumptions.
However, some implications of alternative assump
tions for growth, output, and employment will be
reported in bulletins to be published later.
Even beyond those projections or assumptions for
which alternatives could be used, uncertainties con
cerning these projections exist. While they have
been made with care and the models used, tested,
and evaluated, many questions remain. Any model
or technique is only a shortcut to capture intricate re
lationships in the economy. These shortcuts may ob
scure important structural changes. Also, it is usual
in making projections, to tend, when all else fails, to
move toward the center of reasonable alternatives,
while the economy is never quite that cooperative.
Further, in developing projections to years as distant
as 1980 and 1985, it is inevitable that in certain areas
events will take place which could materially affect
the projections.2 As one example, it is conceivable
that defense expenditures could be drastically
increased or reduced as a result of international
developments or decisions regarding national priori
ties. This would affect not only Federal expendi
tures, but the level and structure of investments and
consumer expenditures, input-output relationships,
and the relative rates of output and employment
growth for selected industries. Consequently, while
BLS has taken considerable time and care in devel
oping these projections, before they are used by
others they should be evaluated carefully, particu
larly the assumptions underlying them.
In general, the projections should be considered
as estimates amid uncertainty. Nevertheless, they are
believed to be useful in providing indicators of rela
tive future growth of demand, output, employment,
and occupations.
Comparison with 1980 projections
The revised 1980 projections are not substantially
different from the earlier set of 1980 projections,
published in 1970. When both sets are made com
parable by use of the 4-percent unemployment rate
assumptions and the 1972 price level for the con
stant dollar estimates of gross nationa1 product, the
1 The earlier projections to 1980 were published in the
Monthly Labor Review, April 1970, and in a series of BLS
Bulletins, as follows:
Patterns of U.S. Economic Growth, Bulletin 1672 (1970)
The U.S. Economy in 1980: A Summary of BLS Projec
tions, Bulletin 1673 (1970)
College Educated Workers, 1968-80, Bulletin 1676 (1970)
Occupational Manpower and Training Needs, Bulletin
1701 (1971)
Tomorrow’s Manpower Needs: Volume IV, The National
Industry-Occupational Matrix and Other Manpower
Data, Bulletin 1737 (1972). Revised 1971.
revised 1968-80 GNP annual growth rate is 4.0
percent, only slightly lower than the earlier projec
tion of 4.1 percent. The slight decline results from
changes in two of the factors which affect the overall
growth rate being largely offsetting—higher labor
force increases and lower annual hours of work. The
other major factor—productivity—is only slightly
lower in the revised projections than in the earlier
estimates.
The comparison of the distribution of GNP
among major components of demand shows a
decline in the relative share of final goods and serv
ices preempted by Federal Government purchases,
stated in constant prices. This is due in large part to
a reduction in the size of the Armed Forces, based
on the assumption of an all-volunteer army. The
revised projections show a somewhat higher propor
tion of GNP for each of the other major compo
nents of final demand; personal consumption
expenditures, private domestic investment, and State
and local government purchases of goods and serv
ices. The surplus in net exports is smaller.
The new employment projection is about 3 mil
lion higher than the earlier estimate, with most of
the increase, in terms of number of jobs, in three
major sectors—trade; finance, insurance, and real
estate; and other services. Revised employment
projections for agriculture and construction are
lower than earlier estimates.
The current occupational projections show sub
stantially higher estimates for white-collar workers,
primarily in clerical occupations, and blue-collar
workers, largely among nonfarm laborers. The latter
estimate still shows a decline in the relative propor
tion of nonfarm laborers, but not as much of a
decline as projected earlier. The revised estimates
for service and farm workers are substantially lower
than earlier projections.3
□
In addition to the 1980 projections, the Bureau has also
developed projections to 1970 and 1975. See Projections
1970: Interindustry Relationships, Potential Demand, Em
ployment, Bulletin 1536 (1966), and Projections of the
Post-Vietnam Economy, 1975, Bulletin 1733 (1972).
2 This is one of the reasons the Bureau seeks to update,
review, and extend its projections about once every 2Vi
to 3 years.
8A more detailed comparison of the revised and earlier
1980 projections is provided in appendix B of this bulletin.
Chapter 1. Population and Labor Force Projections
DENIS F. JOHNSTON
T h e p o s t w a r ' b a b y b o o m ” which pressed heavily
on school capacity and subsequently swelled the
ranks of younger workers during the late 1960’s
will have a similar impact on the ranks of workers
between 25 and 40 years of age between 1972 and
1985, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics pro
jections of the labor force to 1985. By contrast, the
proportion of workers under 25 will fall relative
to older groups of workers in the latter part of the
1972 - 85 period. As a result, some of the problems
associated with very large numbers of young work
ers beginning their careers will diminish as these
workers move into the older age groups, which gen
erally have fewer employment problems.
Projections of population
These labor force expectations are based on
expected changes in population. Between 1972 and
1980, the U.S. population is projected to increase
by about 15 million to 224 million. However, if
the current rate of child birth continues, the size
of the population under 16 years old will decline
by over 4 million while the working-age population
(16 years and over) will rise by 19 million. Among
those of labor force age, the 16- to 19-year-old
population remains nearly constant. The prospective
increase in the population of young adults (20 to
34 years old) is most important— a rise to 12.5
million, reaching 58 million in 1980. By contrast,
the group aged 35 to 54 years will increase by only
1.4 million and the population 55 and over grows
by about 5 million. The net effect of these changes
is to increase the proportion of the population that
is of working age (16 and over) from 71 percent
in 1972 to 75 percent in 1980, and to raise the
Denis F. Johnston is senior demographic statistician,
Office of Manpower Structure and Trends, Bureau of
Labor Statistics.
median age of the population from 28.1 years in
1972 to 29.6 years in 1980, reversing the declining
trend observed since the mid-1950’s.
Between 1980 and 1985, the population under 16
years old is projected to increase by 3.2 million—
reflecting the continuing rise in the number of
women of child-bearing age. The 16- to 19-year-old
group, in contrast, declines by over 2 million, in
line with the decline in the number of births during
the late 1960’s.1 While the 20- to 34-year-old group
continues to increase by about 3 million during
this period, its growth is overshadowed by that of the
group 35 to 54 years old, which is expected to
increase by 5.4 million. The older population also
continues its steady increase during this 5-year
period, with the net effect that the total population
increases by 11.6 million during the period and the
median age reaches 30.6 years by 1985.2
Key population changes between 1972 and 1985
by age group are as follows:
Group
Percent change
Total p o p u la tio n ________________________
Under 16 y e a r s ____________________
16 years and o v e r __________________
16 to 19 years __________________
20 to 34 y e a r s _________________
35 years and o v e r _____________
13
—2
19
—12
34
16
These major changes in population are expected to
strongly influence the growth and age-sex composi
tion of the labor force.
Fertility fluctuations
The most important demographic development in
the United States since World War II has been the
enormous fluctuation in the fertility rate (births per
1,000 women 15 to 44 years old). It rose from 85.9
in 1945 to a peak of 122.9 in 1957 (up 43 per
cent) and then declined to 73.4 in 1972 (down 40
percent).3 The initial effects of the “baby boom” of
the 1950’s have already been registered in the rising
school enrollments of the late 1950’s and early
1960’s and in the heavy inflow of teenage jobseek
ers from the mid-1960’s onward. The movement of
this baby boom generation through the population
constitutes the most dynamic feature of the popula
tion projections to 1985 and beyond. The 60 million
persons born in the 15 years between 1947 and
1961 stand in marked contrast to the 40 million
born during the preceding 15 years (1932 to 1946).
Ignoring the counteracting effects of mortality and
immigration, these 60 million persons were 11 to 25
years old in 1972; they will be 19 to 33 years old
by 1980, and 24 to 38 years old by 1985. Further
more, their number is considerably larger than the
approximately 54 million births expected (according
to the assumed Series E fertility levels of the U.S.
Bureau of the Census) during the following 15-year
period, 1962 to 1976. The reverse effects of this
“baby bust” are only beginning to be felt in the
recent declines in elementary school enrollments.
Table 1.
Expressed in terms of average births per woman,
the fertility decline of the past 15 years implies a
dramatic shift from a “three child” to a “two child”
family norm—a shift which has been associated with
profound changes in the roles of adult women, par
ticularly with respect to their interest in, and availa
bility for, paid employment.
The Series E projection of population, which has
been adopted in developing the latest projection of
labor supply, is summarized in table 1. This projec
tion reflects the assumption that the “two child”
norm shall continue to prevail over the projection
period. Since current fertility levels are already con
sistent with (or even slightly below) the level
needed to sustain that norm, the adoption of Series
E implies the assumption that fertility rates will not
continue to decline significantly in the next 12 years.
The population series which is adopted has no
effect upon the population of working age (16 years
and over) until the late 1980’s. Prior to that time,
all persons in that population have already been
born.4
Total population, by age and sex, July 1, 1960, 1972, and projected to 1980 and 1985
Number (in thousands)
Percent distribution
Sex and age
1960
1972
1980
1985
Total, all ages_____ _____ ________ _____ _______ ______________________
Under 16 years._____ ____________ ______ ________________________
16 years and over__________ _____________ _______ ________________
16 to 19 years_______ _____________ ______ _____ _________ _____
20 to 34 years____ _____ ____ ______________ __________________
35 to 54 years___ ____ ________________________ _______ _______
55 years and over_____________ ___________ _______ ___________
180,681
58,857
121,824
10,710
34,027
44,802
32,285
208,839
60,926
147,913
15,923
45,573
46,365
40,052
224,134
56,794
167,340
16,397
58,030
47,777
45,136
235,699
59,979
175,720
14,049
61,195
53,187
47,289
Median age in years________ ____ ________ ____ _______ ________________
29.4
28.1
29.6
30.6
89,331
29,917
59,414
5,417
16,884
22,015
15,098
102,053
31,055
70,998
8,100
22,740
22,497
17,661
109,240
28,979
80,261
8,339
29,187
23,249
19,486
91,350
28,940
62,410
5,293
17,143
22,787
17,187
106,786
29,871
76,915
7,823
22,833
23,868
22,391
114,894
27,815
87,079
8,058
28,843
24,528
25,650
1960
1972
1980
1985
BOTH SEXES
100.0
32.6
67.4
5.9
18.8
24.8
17.9
100.0
29.2
70.8
7.6
21.8
22.2
19.2
100.0
25.3
74.7
7.3
25.9
21.3
20.1
100.0
25.4
74.6
6.0
26.0
22.6
20.1
114,915
30,632
84,283
7,139
30,845
26,039
20,260
49.4
16.6
32.9
3.0
9.3
12.2
8.4
48.9
14.9
34.0
3.9
10.9
10.8
8.4
48.7
12.9
35.8
3.7
13.0
10.4
8.7
48.8
13.0
35.8
3.0
13.1
11.0
8.6
120,784
29,347
91,437
6,910
30,350
27,148
27,029
50.6
16.0
34.5
2.9
9.5
12.6
9.5
51.1
14.3
36.8
3.7
10.9
11.4
10.7
51.3
12.4
38.8
3.6
12.9
10.9
11.4
51.2
12.4
38.8
2.9
12.9
11.5
11.5
MEN
Total, all ages____ ________ _______ ______________ ____________________
Under 16 years_____ __________________ ____ ___ _____ ____ _____ _
16 years and over_________________ _______ ________________ ______
16 to 19 years______________________________ ______ ___ _______
20 to 34 years____________________________________ ________ _
35 to 54 years__________________ ____ ________________________
55 years and over............... ................................................. ............
WOMEN
Total, all ages........................................................................................................
Under 16 years_____ ________ _____ ______ ________________________
16 years and over__________________ ____ ________________________
16 to 19 years........... ............... ...... .............................. ...................
20 to 34 years_______________________________________________
35 to 54 years____________________________ _____ ___ ____ ____
55 years and over______________________ _____ ________________
SOURCE: For 1960, see Estimates of the Population of the United States, by
Age, Color, and Sex: July 1, 1960 to 1965, Current Population Reports, Population Estimates, Series P-25, No. 321 (Bureau of the Census, 1965), table 1. For
1972, 1980, and 1985, see Series P-25, No. 493, table 2 and unpublished single-year
age detail,
period (1972-85) of 1.5 percent—1.7 percent
between 1972 and 1980, and 1.1 percent, 1980 to
1985.6
Over three-fourths of the projected 1972-80
increase in the labor force is expected to occur
among the group 20 to 34 years old. This group
will grow from 36 percent of the labor force in
1972 to 42 percent by 1980. In absolute numbers,
the group rises from 32Vi to over 42 million. The
groups aged 35 to 54 years old and 55 years old
and over will also grow, though more moderately,
the former increasing 4.4 percent to about 35 mil
lion and the latter 11.1 percent to just over 16 mil
lion. By contrast the number of teenage workers
(16 to 19) entering the labor force—whose massive
growth between 1960 and 1972 helped to create
problems of jobs for youth and to bring about a
marked decline in the labor force’s median age
(from 39.8 to 37.2 years)—will peak around 1979,
declining slowly thereafter.
Because 20- to 34-year-olds will lead labor force
growth between 1972 and 1980, the emphasis in
manpower policy may be expected to shift toward
concern to provide more permanent career jobs
from the past emphasis on entry-level jobs.
Expected increases in the number of workers 35 to
54 years (about 150,000 a year during 1972-80)
and workers 55 years and over (about 200,000 a
Projections of labor force
As shown in table 2, the total labor force of the
United States is projected to increase by nearly 13
million between 197-2 and 1980, from 89 to about
102 million, and by almost 6 million between 1980
and 1985, reaching just under 108 million in 1985.5
This projection indicates that the proportion of
women workers in the labor force is expected to
continue to rise, but at a much more moderate pace
than that during the 1960-72 period (32.3 percent
to 37.4 percent). By 1980 it is expected to rise to
38.5 percent, with little change by 1985 (38.7 per
cent). The projection also reveals a major shift in
the distribution of the labor force by age, reflecting
in large part the impact of past changes in fertility,
particularly the movement into the young adult
group of the large postwar baby boom cohorts. This
shift can be illustrated by means of the ratio of
workers 20 to 34 years old to those aged 35 to 54.
In 1960, that ratio was .72; by 1972, it had risen to
.96; by 1980, it is expected to rise to 1.20; and by
1985, it declines moderately to 1.13.
Another important feature of the projection is the
initially rapid increase in the size of the labor force
in the 1970’s, and the slowdown which begins late
in the decade. The projection yields an average
annual rate of increase over the entire projection
Table 2.
Total labor force, by age and sex, annual average 1960, 1972, and projected to 1980 and 1985
Percent distribution
Number (in thousands)
Sex and age
1960
1972
1980
1985
72,142
5,246
22,749
31,562
12,585
88,991
8,367
32,463
33,689
14,472
101,809
8,337
42,223
35,165
16,084
107,716
7,165
44,758
39,463
16,330
______
39.8
37.2
35.2
Total, 16 years and over___________ _______ ___________________ ______
16 to 19 years_________________________________ _____ ___________
20 to 34 years____________________________________ ______________
35 to 54 years______ ____ ___ _____ ______ ____ _______ ____ ________
55 years and over________________________________________________
55,671
4,791
20,601
21,116
' 9,163
62,590
4,668
26,375
21,759
9,788
23,272
2,062
6,730
10,588
3,893
33,320
3,576
11,862
12,573
5,309
39,219
3,669
15,848
13,406
6,296
1980
35.8
48,870
3,184
16,019
20,974
8,692
1960
1972
1985
BOTH SEXES
Total, 16 years and over______________________________________________
16 to 19 years____________________ ______ __________________ . . .
20 to 34 years________________________ __________________________
35 to 54 years___________________________________________________
55 years and over____________________ _____ _____________________
Median age in years
__
_
100.0
7.3
31.5
43.7
17.4
100.0
9.4
36.5
37.9
16.3
100.0
8.2
41.5
34.5
15.8
100.0
6.7
41.6
36.6
15.2
66,017
3,962
27,896
24,361
9,798
67.7
4.4
22.2
29.1
12.0
62.6
5.4
23.1
23.7
10.3
61.5
4.6
25.9
21.4
9.6
61.3
3.7
25.9
22.6
9.1
41,699
3,203
16,862
15,102
6,532
32.3
2.8
9.3
14.7
5.4
37.4
4.0
13.3
14.1
6.0
38.5
3.6
15.6
13.2
6.2
38.7
3.0
15.7
14.0
6.1
MEN
WOMEN
Total, 16 years and over........... ................... ............................... .....................
16 to 19 years____________ _____ _____ ___________________________
20 to 34 years____________________________________ ______________
35 to 54 years_________________ _____ ________ _____ ______________
55 years and over_________ ____________ _____ ____ _________ ______
SOURCE: For 1960 and 1972, U.S. Department of Labor, 1973 Manpower Report
of the President, table A-2; for 1980 and 1985, Denis F. Johnston, “ The U.S. labor
force: projections to 1990," Monthly Labor Review, July 1973, pp. 3-13.
million of the net gain of 5.9 million workers. By
contrast, the size of the teenage labor force is pro
jected to fall steadily by about 240,000 a year,
reaching 7.2 million in 1985. The young adult labor
force (20 to 34 years old) is projected to increase
by only 500,000 a year in contrast to 1.2 million a
year during the 1972-80 period. Finally, the
number of older workers is projected to rise very
slowly at this time—with the steady increase in the
size of the older population being counterbalanced
by the assumed continuation of the declines in their
rates of labor force participation.
Projected changes in the rates of labor force par
ticipation of the different age-sex groups are instruc
tive (table 3). The gradual rise in the percentage of
the population of working age in the labor force
(from 59.2 percent in 1960 to 61.3 percent in
1985) reflects both the growing participation rates
among women and the growing proportion of the
population in the prime working ages for men.
Table 3 also reveals the “conservative” nature of the
projection—with the sole exception of teenage men,
the projected changes in rates of labor force partici
pation (whether positive or negative) are much
more modest over the projected period (1972-85)
than the actual changes during the 1960-72 period.
The discussion which follows suggests reasons for
this conservatism, but the root cause is the fact/fhat
the labor force projection is “surprise-free^ and
therefore tends to discount, albeit crudely, the
imputed effects of such major “surprises” as the
year) are not markedly different from 1960-72
trends. But the substantial increase in the ratio of
young adult workers (20 to 34 years) to those 35
to 54 years may limit promotional opportunities for
the younger workers.
Relative labor force growth between men and
women is expected to alter sharply and is perhaps
the most controversial feature of the new labor force
projections. During 1960-72, women made up 60
percent of the net increase in the labor force;
between 1972 and 1980, they are projected to
account for only 46 percent of net growth. This
anticipated slowdown is attributable to (1) the
increase in the women’s population to 1980 being
concentrated in the 25- to 34-year-old group, which
has a lower labor force participation rate than the
groups (under 25 and 35 to 54) which grew most
rapidly in the 1960’s, and (2) the assumed halt in
the decline in women’s fertility rates, which implies
that increased labor force participation attributable
to declining fertility will not be as evident over the
coming years.
Labor force outlook, 1980-85
The baby boom group which causes the 20- to
34-year-olds to lead labor force growth in the
1972-80 period begins to shift into the 35-54 age
group during 1980-85. Nearly three-fourths of the
projected growth in the labor force during this
period is expected to occur in this group, some 4.3
Table 3.
Total labor force participation rates,1 by age and sex, actual 1960 and 1972 and projected to 1980 and 1985
Total labor force participation
rates (in percent)
Percentage point changes in
participation rates
Sex and age
1960
1972
1980
1985
1960-72
1972-85
1972-80
1980-85
BOTH SEXES
Total, 16 years and over.............. ........... ........... .......................................... .
59.2
60.2
60.8
61.3
1.0
1.1
0.6
0.5
82.2
58.8
94.9
95.3
57.6
78.4
59.1
90.6
93.9
51.9
78.0
56.0
90.4
93.6
50.2
78.3
55.5
90.4
93.6
48.4
-3 .8
.3
-4 .3
-1 .4
-5 .7
- .1
-3 .6
-.2
-.3
- 3 .5
- .4
- 3 .1
-.2
-.3
-1 .7
.3
-.5
37.3
39.0
39.2
46.5
22.6
43.3
45.7
52.0
52.7
23.7
45.0
45.5
54.9
54.6
24.5
45.6
46.4
55.6
55.6
24.2
6.0
6.7
12.8
6.2
1.1
2.3
.7
3.6
2.9
.5
1.7
-.2
2.9
1.9
.8
MEN
Total, 16 years and over____ _____________________________________ ____
16 to 19 years___________________________________________________
20 to 34 years___________________________________________________
35 to 54 years.
_
_ _ _______
55 years and over___________ _______ ____ ____ ____ ____ ___________
- 1 .8
WOMEN
Total,. 16 years and over______________________________________________
16 to 19 years___________________________________________________
20 to 34 years________________________________________________ _
35 to 54 years__________ ________________________________________
55 years and over________________________________________________
1
Percent of total population in total labor force.
.6
.9
.7
1.0
- .3
Vietnam buildup and the decline in fertility
observed during the recent past. Also omitted from
consideration are a number of conceivable socioeco
nomic or legislative changes which could signifi
cantly alter the participation rates of particular
groups in the population. For example, any major
expansion in the availability of day-care or “childdevelopment” centers would enable more mothers of
young children to choose between the labor force
and work at home, and would, in addition, create a
substantial demand for adults qualified to staff these
centers.
The observed and projected annual average rates
of change in the population and total labor force are
summarized in chart 1. A significant feature which
emerges from these computations is that the labor
force has grown more rapidly than the population
during the 1960-72 period—an average increase of
1.7 percent a year compared with 1.2 percent a
year. More recently (1968-72), this relative
increase has been greater—2.0 percent for the labor
force and 0.9 percent for the population. A similar
disparity in growth is in prospect for the remainder
of the current decade, with projected average annual
growth rates of 1.7 percent in the labor force and
0.9 percent in the population. However, this dispar
ity disappears early in the 1980’s. Between 1980
and 1985, the average annual growth rate in the
labor force is 1.1 percent compared with 1.0 per
cent for the population. This reduction in labor
force growth relative to that of the population
implies that the potential gains in per capita output
which stem from a more rapid growth in labor force
than in population will not be notable after 1980.7
Differences in the projected rates of change in the
size of the several age groups in the labor force also
suggest that programs and policies designed to meet
emerging manpower problems should be developed
in anticipation of the changing relative size of the
several age-sex groups in the labor force, on the
grounds that any group whose rate of growth is sig
nificantly higher than the overall average is likely to
encounter (and to generate) certain strains at every
stage in the working-life cycle.8
Projected education of workers
In March 1972, two-thirds of the people 16 years
old and over in the civilian labor force had com
pleted at least 4 years of high school, and nearly 1
worker in 7 had completed at least 4 years of col
lege (chart 2). According to the latest projection,
over 3 out of 4 persons in the civilian labor force
will be high school graduates by 1985 (73 percent
\
Chart 1.
Average annual rates of change in population and labor force, 1960-72 and 1972-85
by 1980 and 77 percent by 1985). At that time
nearly 1 worker in 5 will have completed 4 years of
college or more.9
When fewer women were in the labor force, the
educational attainment of women workers was, on
average, considerably higher than that of the men.
As more women enter the labor force, however, the
educational distribution of women workers has
become more similar to that of working men, as
more women with only average amounts of school
ing have been drawn into the labor force. For exam
ple, in March 1962, almost three-fifths of women
workers had completed 4 years of high school or
more compared with roughly half of working men.
By March 1972, almost seven-tenths of women
workers had that much schooling compared with
well over three-fifths of male workers. This conver
gence is expected to continue; between March 1972
and 1985, the proportion of high school graduates
among working men is projected to increase until it
almost matches the proportion of women graduates
— 76.5 percent compared with 77.8 percent.
The outlook for the supply of workers at opposite
extremes of the educational ladder is particularly
significant. In accordance with long-term trends,
both the number and the proportion of workers with
8 years or less of formal schooling is projected to
decline rapidly, from about 1 worker in 7 in March
1972 to about 1 in 10 in 1980 and down to 1 in 13
by 1985. Numerically, they will drop from 12.8 mil
lion in 1972 to 10.0 million in 1980 and down to
7.9 million in 1985. In contrast, the number of
workers with 4 years of college or more is projected
to increase from 11.6 million in 1972 to 16.4 mil
lion in 1980 and 20.3 million in 1985, when they
will account for nearly 1 in 5 workers in the labor
force.
Workers with 1 to 3 years of high school (a
group which has typically experienced particularly
severe unemployment problems) are also projected
to decline in number, but not until after 1980. In
March 1972, 16.4 million workers fell in this cate
gory. By 1980, their number is projected at 17.3
million, and by 1985, at 16.4 million.
Workers with 4 years of high school completed
constitute the largest group in the labor force—
nearly 2 in 5 workers in 1972 and just over that in
1980 and 1985. However, the dramatic increase in
the educational attainment of the labor force since
World War II stems in large part from the enor
mous rise in the number of persons continuing their
schooling beyond high school. In accordance with
this long-term trend, the number of workers with 1
to 3 years of college is projected to increase from
11.6 million in 1972 to 15.8 million in 1980 and
18.1 million in 1985. Thus among those with at
least 4 years of high school, the proportion of work
ers with 1 year of college or more increases from 41
percent in 1972 to 44 percent in 1980 and 47 per
cent in 1985.
The projected average annual rates of change in
the number of workers with different amounts of
education display even greater range than those of
the several age groups in the labor force. Between
March 1972 and 1985, the number of workers with
8 years or less of education is projected to decline
by 3.6 percent a year, on average, while the number
of college graduates rises an average of 4.2 percent
a year over the same period. Thus, the supply of
college graduates in the Nation’s labor force is pro
jected to increase at over 1 V2 times the rate of
increase of the labor force as a whole. This rapid
buildup, it should be noted, is not a new phenome
non; a similar disparity between the growing supply
Chart 2. Educational attainment of the civilian
force, March 1972 and projected 1980 and 1985
labor
Percent
8 years of elementary school or less
0 B B :i i
1972
1980
1985
Projected
Projected
of the college educated and the growth of the labor
force a$ a whole has been characteristic of the entire
postwar period. Nevertheless, the expected continua
tion of this disparity suggests either the need for
continued rapid expansion in the kinds of careers
for which highly educated workers are qualified
or the entry of many college-educated workers into
occupations which did not formerly attract many
college graduates.
In particular, the supply of women college gradu
ates in the labor force, which is projected to grow
by 4.7 percent a year, on average, to 1985, must be
considered in the light of the anticipated stabiliza
tion of job opportunities in education and related
fields. The full utilization of college-educated women
may therefore require considerable movement into
occupations formerly dominated by college-educated
men. For such mobility to occur, it would be neces
sary for these types of occupations to expand at a
pace considerably faster than the 4.0-percent annual
rate needed merely to absorb the anticipated supply
of male college graduates between now and 1985. If
such a growth rate cannot be maintained, it is likely
that employers will continue to upgrade the educa
tional requirements of jobs which need to be filled
so as to match the growing supply of highly edu
cated workers. This upgrading would further limit
the employment opportunities of noncollege jobseek
ers, and might, in addition, generate problems of
underemployment and job dissatisfaction among
workers whose formal education exceeds the actual
requirements of their jobs.1
0
□
FOOTNOTES1 The annual number of births rose steadily from 3.3
million in 1946 to a peak of nearly 4.3 million in 1961.
Thereafter, it declined to less than 3.3 million in 1972.
According to the fertility levels assumed in these projec
tions (Series E), the annual number of births should again
rise slowly, reaching about 4.3 to 4.4 million a year during
the early 1980’s.
2 Even under Series E (with fertility remaining at the
bare replacement level), the population continues to
increase for about 70 years, though at a diminishing rate.
See Illustrative Population Projections for the United
States: The Demographic Effects of Alternate Paths to
Zero Growth, Current Population Reports, Population Esti
mates and Projections, Series P-25, No. 480 (Bureau of
the Census, 1972).
3 The general fertility rate is defined as the number of
birth occurring in a given calendar year per 1,000 women
15 to 44 years old at the midpoint of that year.
4 Since all the projected population series assume the
same trends in mortality and the same amount of net
annual immigration, they differ solely with respect to the
assumed level of fertility. The four series currently pro
jected (C,D,E, and F) may therefore be identified in terms
of the average number of births per woman: Series C = 2.8,
Series D =2.5, Series E=2.1, and Series F=1.8. Two ear
lier series of projections (A = 3.4 and B = 3.1) have now
been dropped because they assume implausibly high levels
of fertility for the near future. Since Series B is fairly rep
resentative of the average fertility of the “baby boom”
period, the shift from that level to the current one is con
veniently termed a shift from the “three child” to the “two
child” norm. See Projections of the Population of the
United States, by Age and Sex: 1970 to 2020, Current
Population Reports, Population Estimates and Projections,
Series P-25, No. 493 (Bureau of the Census, 1972).
5 Denis F. Johnston, “The U.S. labor force: projections
to 1990,” Monthly Labor Review, July 1973, pp. 3-13,
reprinted as Special Labor Force Report 156. These projec
tions supersede those which were presented by Sophia C.
Travis, “The U.S. labor force: projections to 1985,” Monthly
Labor Review, May 1970, pp. 3-12, and reprinted as Spe
cial Labor Force Report 119. Information by color or race,
which was provided in the earlier report, is not yet avail
able.
6 The annual net growth in the labor force is expected
to reach a peak in the late 1970’s, when the peak birth
cohort born in 1961 reaches the age of initial entry into
the labor force.
7 For further discussion of the implications of these pro
spective changes, see the chapter by Ronald E. Kutscher in
this bulletin, pp. 27-42. For a brief discussion of alternative
projections of labor force, see appendix 1 to this chapter.
8 For further discussion, see the Manpower Report of
the President, March 1973, chapter 3, “Population
Changes: A Challenge to Manpower Policy,” pp. 59-82. It
is also argued, changes in the age-sex distribution of the
labor force may exert some effect on the aggregate unem
ployment rate, apart from the recognized influence of
demand conditions on total employment. Rough estimates
of this effect can be obtained if we adopt some set of agesex specific unemployment rates as a “standard” and if we
grant the further simplifying assumption that the unemploy
ment rate for each age-sex group is unaffected by changes
in its relative size.
The results of such an exercise indicate that the changing
age-sex distribution of the labor force may account for an
increase of about 0.5 percentage points in the hypothetical
total unemployment rate over the 1955-72 period. This
effect is, of course, largely attributable to the heavy inflow
of teenage and women jobseekers— groups having typically
higher unemployment rates—during this period. If this
exercise is extended over the projection period, the results
indicate no significant change in the hypothetical total
unemployment rate between 1972 and 1980, followed by a
reduction of perhaps 0.2 percentage points between 1980
and 1985. These results were obtained by using as a
“standard” the arithmetic average of the age-sex specific
unemployment rates for the years 1956, 1965, and 1968,
when the total unemployment rate was 4.1, 4.5, and 3.6
percent, respectively. These “standard” rates were then
applied to the actual or projected age-sex distribution of
the civilian labor force as of 1955, 1972, 1980, and 1985.
9 Denis F. Johnston, “Education of workers: projections
to 1990,” Monthly Labor Review, November 1973, pp. 2231, to be reprinted as a Special Labor Force Report. This
article includes a description of the methods and assump
tions employed in developing these projections.
10
This matter is considered more fully in the chapter by
Neal Rosenthal in this bulletin, pp. 18-26.
Appendix 1. Alternative Labor Force Projections
The number of alternative projections of the labor force,
even if constrained by generally agreed upon notions of
plausibility, is very large. However, the number of possible
alternatives is reduced by the fact that the projected popu
lation of working age is not affected by postulated differ
ences in fertility until the late 1980’s. The number is fur
ther reduced if it is assumed that prevailing definitions of
economic activity, employment, and unemployment remain
unchanged. Nevertheless, the adoption of different methods
or periods for extrapolating observed trends in labor force
participation rates of the several age-sex groups in the pop
ulation, or the construction of projection formulas or equa
tion systems reflecting alternative theories as to the under
lying causes of these observed trends could yield a
virtually unlimited number of alternative projections.
Two sets of alternative projections are presented in this
section. The first is designed to illustrate the estimated
effect of postulated changes in fertility on the size of the
female labor force in 1980 and 1985 (appendix table 1).
The second is designed to demonstrate the effect of two
alternative projections of the rates of labor force participa
tion of each age-sex group over the same period (appen
dix table 2). In each set, the “basic” projection is included
for purposes of comparison.
As shown in appendix table 1, the higher fertility of
women implied by the Series D projection of population
implies a higher proportion of women in each age group
Appendix table 1.
16 to 49 years old who would have children under 5 years
of age. This in turn implies, ceteris paribus, a higher pro
portion of women having the lower labor force participa
tion rates associated with child-care responsibilities, so that
the aggregate number of working women is lower than it
would be if fertility levels were lower. The reverse effect is
evident in the assumption of the lower fertility levels of the
Series F projection of population. This series implies a
lower proportion of women with young children, hence it
yields a larger proportion having the higher labor force
participation rates of women without young children to
care for, so that the total number of working women is
larger.
In 1980, a shift from the basic projection (Series E) to
the higher fertility of Series D results in a total labor force
of 101.1 million, nearly 700,000 below that of the basic
projection. Alternatively, a shift to the lower fertility of
Series F yields a total labor force of 102.2 million, about
360,000 larger than that of the basic projection. By 1985,
the corresponding range is from 106.9 million (higher fer
tility) to 108.2 million (lower fertility). It is assumed here
that the labor force rates of men and of women 50 and
over are not affected by the postulated changes in fertility.
The range in the projected size of the total labor force
(from higher to lower fertility—Series D to Series F ),
expressed as a percentage of the basic projection, is 1.0
percent in 1980 and 1.2 percent in 1985. Among women
Effect on alternative fertility assumptions on projected total labor force, 1980 and 1985 1
1980
1985
Sex and age
Series D
Series E
Series F
Series D
Series E
Series F
101,138
101,809
102,166
106,932
107,716
108,247
62,590
62,590
62,590
66,017
66,017
66,017
38,548
10,025
8,874
10,021
9,628
39,219
10,261
9,256
10,074
9,628
39,576
10,412
9,444
10,092
9,628
40,915
9,495
9,856
11,876
9,688
41,699
9,726
10,339
11,946
9,688
42,230
9,897
10,663
11,982
9,688
BOTH SEXES
Total, 16 years and over________ _________________________________________________________
MEN
Total, 16 years and over____________________ _____________________________________________
WOMEN
Total, 16 years and over__________________________________________________________________
16 to 24 years.____________ _____________________________________ ___________ _______
25 to 34 years______________________________________________________________________
35 to 49 years________________________________ ______________________________________
50 years and over______________________ ___________________________ _________________
1 As currently defined by the Bureau of the Census in Current Population Reports,
Series P-25, No. 493, Series D implies an ultimate completed fertility rate of 2,500;
that is, 1,000 women would have, on average, 2,500 births throughout their child-
bearing period. Series E implies a corresponding rate of 2,100, and Series F implies a
rate of 1,800. The basic projections in this article assume Series E.
Appendix table 2. Alternative projections of total labor force 16 years old and over, by sex and age, 1980 and 1985
[Numbers in thousands]
Differences
Differences
1980
1980
1985
1985
Differences as a percent of basic
projection
1985
1980
Sex and age
()
1
Model
A: Con
stant
1969-71
rates
(2)
Model
B: pro
jected
1955-72
rates
(3)
101,809
100,408
62,590
4,668
8,852
17,523
11,851
9,908
7,730
2,058
39,219
3,669
6,592
9,256
6,869
6,537
5,057
1,239
Basic
projec
tion
Col
umns
Model
B: pro
jected
1955-72
rates
(6)
Col
umns
(1M 2)
Col
umns
(1 H 3 )
Col
umns
(4M 5)
Col
umns
(4H 6 )
(4)
Model
A: Con
stant
1969-71
rates
(5)
()
7
()
8
(9)
(10)
101,892
107,716
105,811
108,224
1,401
1,905
-5 0 8
1.38
- 0 .0 8
1.77
-0 .4 7
63,858
4,824
9,055
17,616
11,921
10,016
7,947
2,479
61,898
4,686
8,766
17,432
11,817
9,826
7,613
1,758
66,017
3,962
8,496
19,400
14,617
9,744
7,716
2,082
67,679
4,131
8,748
19,540
14,734
9,883
8,000
2,643
64,644
3,954
8,330
19,235
14,543
9,605
7,487
1,490
-1 ,2 6 8
-1 5 6
-20 3
-9 3
-7 0
-1 0 8
-21 7
-421
692
-1 8
86
91
34
82
117
300
-1,6 62
-1 6 9
-25 2
-1 4 0
-11 7
-1 3 9
-2 8 4
-561
1,373
8
166
165
74
139
229
592
-2 .0 2
- 3 .3 4
-2 .2 9
- .5 3
-.5 9
-1 .0 9
-2 .8 1
-2 0 .4 6
1.10
-.3 8
.97
.52
.29
.83
1.51
14.58
- 2 .5 2
- 4 .2 6
- 2 .9 7
- .7 2
- .8 0
- 1 .4 3
- 3 .6 8
-2 6 .9 4
2.08
.20
.85
.51
1.43
2.97
28.43
36,550
3,528
5,953
8,222
6,499
6,243
4,795
1,310
39,994
3,620
6,524
9,260
7,128
6,933
5,307
1,222
41,699
3,203
6,523
10,339
8,560
6,542
5,213
1,319
38,132
3,027
5,751
9,048
7,921
6,130
4,840
1,415
43,580
3,146
6,578
10,764
9,074
7,137
5,610
1,271
-7 7 5
49
68
-4
-2 5 9
-3 9 6
-2 5 0
17
3,567
176
772
1,291
639
412
373
-9 6
-1,881
57
-5 5
-4 2 5
-5 1 4
-5 9 5
-39 7
48
6.80
3.84
9.69
11.17
5.39
4.50
5.18
-5 .7 3
-1 .9 8
1.34
1.03
-.0 4
-3 .7 7
-6 .0 6
- 4 .9 4
1.37
8.55
5.49
11.84
12.49
7.46
6.30
7.16
- 7 .2 8
-4 .5 1
1.78
-.8 4
-4 .1 1
- 6 .0 0
- 9 .1 0
- 7 .6 2
3.64
Basic
projec
tion
Col
umns
Col
umns
Col
umns
8
1
( ) -s- ( ) ( )-¥■ ( ) (9) -4- (4) (10) ^ (4)
7
1
xioo
xioo
xioo
xioo
(11)
(12)
(13)
(14)
BOTH SEXES
Total, 16 years and over..
-8 3
MEN
Total, 16 years and over..
16 to 19 years____
20 to 24 years_____
25 to 34 years_____
35 to 44 years_____
45 to 54 years_____
55 to 64 years_____
65 years and over...
1.95
WOMEN
Total, 16 years and over..
16 to 19 years_____
20 to 24 years.........
25 to 34 years_____
35 to 44 years_____
45 to 54 years.........
55 to 64 years.........
65 years and over...
workers, the corresponding range amounts to 2.6 percent in
1980 and 3.2 percent in 1985.
The second set of alternative projections, shown in
appendix table 2, demonstrates the implications of two dif
ferent assumptions with respect to future rates of labor
force participation. Model A assumes that the labor force
participation rate of each age-sex group remains constant at
the average of the actual 1969-71 levels. This model is pri
marily useful jn illustrating the effect of the changing size
and age-sex distribution of the projected population on the
projected labor force. Model B employs projected rates of
labor force participation obtained by linear least-squares
extrapolation of the observed participation rates of each
age-sex group over the 1955-72 period.
Viewed in the aggregate, the basic projection is less than
0.1 percent below that which would result from linear
extrapolation to 1980, and only 0.5 percent below the
2,669
141
639
1,034
370
294
262
-7 1
linear model in 1985. In contrast, the basic projection is
1.4 percent above the constant rate model in 1980, and 1.8
percent above it in 1985. However, these net effects mask
the considerably larger deviations among men and women
in the labor force—deviations which tend to be mutually
counteracting. For example, by 1985, the basic projection
of the male labor force is nearly 1.7 million below that of
the constant rates model (Model A) and nearly 1.4 million
higher than that of the linear extrapolation (Model B).
Conversely, the basic 1985 projection of the female labor
force is nearly 3.6 million larger than Model A, and 1.9
million smaller than Model B.
Additional research is planned on this subject in the
future, with the aim of developing a number of more
detailed and realistic alternatives than the illustrative exam
ples shown here.
□
Appendix 2. Assumptions and Methods
The Series E population projection reflects the assump
tion that the cohort of women now beginning their child
bearing experience, and all future cohorts, will have, on
average, 2.1 children per woman. It assumes, further, that
older cohorts of women who have already begun childbear
ing will record levels of fertility such that their own aver
age completed family size will gradually approach the 2.1
norm. It also assumes a gradual but steady reduction in
mortality rates and a net annual immigration of 400,000
persons. As noted previously, only the latter two factors
can have any effect on the size of the population of work
ing age before the late 1980’s. Nevertheless, variation in
any of these fundamental demographic processes can have
a considerable effect on population size over time. For
example, under the Series E assumption, the total growth
of the U.S. population between 1972 and the year 2000
amounts to about 56 million, of which about one-fourth is
attributable to the flow of immigrants and the birth of
their offspring. Thus, a reduction of, say, 40 percent in the
volume of immigration would reduce total population
growth by about 10 percent.
As noted previously, variations in the birth rate cannot
affect the size of the population of working age prior to
the late 1980’s, but they can have a significant impact on
the size of the labor force, via changes in the proportion of
women of childbearing age who have pre-school age chil
dren to care for.1
The labor force projections reflect anticipated changes in
the demographic composition of the population of working
age, together with our judgments as to the changes which
might be expected in the labor force participation rates of
the several age-sex groups in the population. The predomi
nant factor in these projections is the anticipated changes
in the size and age-sex distribution of the population; pro
jected changes in participation rates play a relatively minor
role. The projections assume no drastic changes in the pro
pensity of various population groups to seek work. They
also assume a generally favorable demand situation,
together with the absence of major wars or other major
social or economic disturbances. Finally, the projections
assume no major legislative or social changes which would
alter the conditions under which individuals choose to enter
or leave the labor force or which would alter the prevail
ing definitions of “labor force,” “employment,” or “unem
ployment.” Unless otherwise specified, the projections relate
to the total labor force 16 years old and over, comprising
the civilian labor force plus the Armed Forces. The assumed
size of the Armed Forces in 1980 and 1985 is 2 million—
1,960,000 men and 40,000 women. Thus, as will be indicated
in the other articles in this issue, the 1980 projected total
labor force of 101,809,000 implies a civilian labor force of
99,809,000. The further assumption of an unemployment
rate of 4 percent yields a total employment figure (on the
persons concept) of 95,817,000.2
□
--------- APPENDIX FOOTNOTES--------1 For further details, see Johnston, “The U.S. labor
force: projections to 1990.”
2 Additional information on these underlying assumptions
is provided in the chapter by Jack Alterman in this bulletin,
pp. 3-7.
Chapter 2.
Projected Changes in Occupations
NEAL H. ROSENTHAL
ost
lo ng-t e r m
trends in the employment of
white-collar, blue-collar, service, and farm workers
are expected to continue over the next dozen years,
but some important changes will occur in the mix of
occupations within these broad categories, according
to Bureau of Labor Statistics projections of the U.S.
economy to 1985. Technological changes will cause
employment to increase in some occupations and to
decrease in others. The spread of the computer
will continue to be a notable example of this. Also,
differences in industrial growth will boost some
occupations (for example, those in the health field);
while others grow more slowly than in the recent
past (the educational field) and still others continue
to decline relatively (mining jobs). Another phe
nomenon is a potential supply that is greater than
potential requirements for college graduates begin
ning in the late 1970’s in jobs traditionally held by
these workers.
Total employment is expected to increase about a
quarter between 1972 and 1985, going from almost
82 million to over 101 million (based on a count of
employed persons).1 (See tables 1 and 2.)
Expected changes for major occupational classifica
tions are shown in table 3.
Many factors will cause changes in employment
levels of major occupational groups and specific
occupations. One of the greatest will be variation in
growth rates among industries. Each has a different
occupational structure. For example, the health
services industry employs mostly physicians, nurses,
hospital attendants, and other health workers. A
rapid growth in this industry would logically result
in rapid growth of health occupations.
Another factor that affects occupational employ
ment is changes in the occupational structure within
an industry. These may be caused by technological
M
Neal H. Rosenthal is assistant chief, Division of Manpower
and Occupational Outlook, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
innovations in machines or procedures. As a result,
individual occupations may expand or contract and
new occupations often emerge. For example, the
computer resulted in the emergence of programmers,
systems analysts, and computer operators but con
tributed to the decline in relative importance of pay
roll and inventory clerks and a variety of other cler
ical occupations. Changes in business operations,
such as a shift to self-service in stores and supplydemand conditions in an occupation, can also alter
the occupational structure of industries. For exam
ple, technicians have been substituted for engineers
during periods of engineering shortages.
Growth among white-collar groups
Professional and technical. Employment growth in
this major group will continue to be faster than all
others, from IIV 2 million in 1972 to about 17 mil
lion by 1985. This is about one and one-half times
the annual rate of employment increase projected
for all occupations combined. (See table 4.) Despite
this, the projected 1972-85 growth is slower than it
was between 1960 and 1972. A major reason for
this is the expected slowdown in the growth of jobs
for elementary and secondary school teachers and
engineers (which accounted for over one-fourth of
all professional workers in 1972). Opportunities for
teachers will slow because growth in the number of
pupils will moderate. The rate of increase in engi
neers’ jobs, rapid in the 1960’s largely as a result of
expanded space exploration and increased research
and development, will be reduced because these
activities are not expected to have a comparable
effect through the mid-1980’s. As is the case with
all major occupational groups in these projections,
the annual rate of growth is expected to be slower
between 1980 and 1985 (2.5 percent) than from
1972 to 1980 (3.5 percent) as the slowdown in the
rate of growth of the economy also has its effect.2
Growth in demand for goods and services, result
ing from population growth and rising business and
personal incomes, will continue to be a major
reason underlying job growth among these highly
trained workers. As the population continues to
concentrate in metropolitan areas, requirements are
expected to increase for professional and technical
workers in environmental protection, urban renewal,
and mass transportation. Requirements for profes
sional workers also should increase because of con
tinuing growth of research in the natural and social
sciences, although the rate of growth in these activi
ties as a whole is likely to slow from the very rapid
pace of the 1960’s. Demand for professional work
ers to develop and use computer resources also is
expected to grow rapidly in the 1972-85 period.
Managers and administrators. Employment in this
occupational group is projected to reach lOVi mil
lion in 1985, up from 8 million in 1972, represent
ing a much higher average annual rate of growth
than occurred during the 1960-72 period. However,
a large part of the future growth reflects a catchup
because little change in managerial and administra
tive employment occurred between 1968 and 1972
although total employment increased. The slowdown
in growth from 1980 to 1985 largely reflects the
deceleration in the rate of growth of trade, a major
employer of managers with about tw elfths of the
total in 1972.
Table 1. Employment by major occupational group, 1960
and 1972, and projected 1980 and 1985
[in thousands]
Occupational group
I9601
1972
1980
1985
Total_________________ ______
65,778
81,703
95,800
101,500
White-collar workers_________________
Professional and technical workers...
Managers and administrators______
Sales workers___________ _____ _
Clerical workers____ ____________
28,351
7,236
7,367
4,210
9,538
39,092
11,459
8,032
5,354
14,247
49,300
15,000
10,000
6,300
17,900
53,700
17,000
10,500
6,500
19,700
Blue-collar workers__________________
Craft and kindred w o rk e rs ____
Operatives2____________________
Nonfarm laborers............... .............
23,877
8,748
11,380
3,749
28,576
10,810
13,549
4,217
31,800
12,300
15,000
4,500
32,800
13,000
15,300
4,500
Service workers____ _____ ____ ______
Private household workers________
Other service workers....... ......... .
8,354
1,965
6,387
10,966
1,437
9,529
12,700
1,300
11,400
13,400
1,100
12,300
Farm workers............ ...........................
5,196
3,069
2,000
1,600
1 Data for I960 were adjusted to reflect the occupational classification in the 1970
census to make it comparable to the 1972 and projected 1980 and 1985 data.
2 Includes the 1970 census classification, operatives, except transport and transport
equipment operatives.
NOTE: Details may not add to totals because of rounding.
Table 2. Percent distribution off employment, by major
occupational group, 1960 and 1972, and projected 1980
and 1985
Occupational group
I9601
1972
1980
1985
Total__________ ______ _______
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
White-collar workers..............................
Professional and technical workers...
Managers and administrators_____
Sales workers__________________
Clerical workers............ .............. .
43.1
11.0
11.2
6.4
14.5
47.8
14.0
9.8
6.6
17.4
51.5
15.7
10.5
6.6
18.7
52.9
16.8
10.3
6.4
19.4
Blue-collar workers_________________
Craft and kindred w o rk e rs ____
Operatives2____________________
Nonfarm laborers..._____________
36.3
13.3
17.3
5.7
35.0
13.2
16.6
5.2
33.1
12.8
15.6
4.7
32.3
12.8
15.1
4.4
Service workers__________ ______ ___
Private household workers________
Other service workers____________
12.7
3.0
9.7
13.4
1.8
11.6
13.3
1.3
12.0
13.2
1.1
12.1
Farm workers.____________ _________
7.9
3.8
2.1
1.6
1 Data for 1960 were adjusted to reflect the occupational classification in the 1970
census to make it comparable to the 1972 and projected 1980 and 1985 data.
2 Includes the 1970 census classification, operatives, except transport and transport
equipment operatives.
Changes in business size and organization have
caused the number of salaried managers to go up
while numbers of self-employed managers have
declined. Requirements for the salaried are expected
to continue to grow rapidly as industry and govern
ment increasingly depend on them. Technology will
also contribute to their employment growth. For
example, an increasing number of technically trained
managers will be needed to administer research and
development programs and to make decisions on the
installation and use of automated machinery and
automatic data processing systems.
By contrast, the number of self-employed manag
ers (proprietors) are projected to continue to
decline as the trend toward larger firms continues.
The expansion of quick-service grocery stores, selfservice laundries and drycleaners, and hamburger
and frozen custard drive-ins, however, is expected to
slow the rate of decline.
Clerical workers. Employment in clerical jobs is
expected to grow faster than total employment,
rising to almost 20 million in 1985 from over 14
million in 1972. Among the major occupational
groups, only professional workers’ jobs are expected
to grow faster. Nevertheless, the clerical rate of
growth is slower than that during 1960-72. The
slower annual rate of growth from 1980 to 1985
will be largely because of a projected slowdown in
the rate of growth of trade and manufacturing, which
combined employed about one-third of all clerical
workers in 1972. However, the projected decline in
the 1980-85 growth rate is expected to be less for
clerical workers than most major groups.
Clerical workers, the largest major occupational
group in 1972, will be greatly affected by develop
ments in computers, office equipment, and commu
nication devices—all of which are expected to retard
the growth of employment for some clerical occupa
tions and increase it for others. For example, the
use of computers and bookkeeping machines to
handle routine, repetitive work is expected to reduce
the utilization of clerks in filing, payroll computa
tion, inventory control, and customer billing. On the
other hand, the number of clerical workers needed
to prepare material for the computer is projected to
increase greatly.
Other types of clerical workers, however, are
unlikely to be affected significantly by technology.
For example, secretaries, typists, and receptionists
and others whose tasks involve contact with the
public should not be greatly affected. Increased use
of secretaries, typists, and receptionists in industries
that employ large numbers of them, such as mis
cellaneous business services and legal services, is
projected to account for a growth of 2.5 million
during 1972-85 or about half the total growth in
the group over this period.
Sales workers. The anticipated expansion of trade is
expected to increase the need for sales workers,
while changing techniques in merchandising are
expected to hold down some of the increase.
Employment is projected to rise about 1 million
from 1972 to 1985, but the rate of increase is
slower than that expected in total employment. As a
result, their share of total employment is projected
to decrease slightly (0.2 percent). The projected
1972-85 rate of growth, slower than that experiTable 3.
Expected changes in major occupational classi
fications, 1972-85
1972
Classification
1985
Number
Percent
of jobs
(in
millions)
Number
Percent
of jobs
(in
millions)
Percent
change,
1972-85
Total employment.......
81.7
100.0
101.5
100.0
24
White-collar workers.............
Blue-collar workers...............
Service workers....................
Farm workers........................
39.1
28.6
11.0
3.1
47.8
35.0
13.5
3.8
53.7
32.8
13.4
1.6
52.9
32.3
13.2
1.6
37
15
22
-4 7
enced by this group over the 1960-72 period, is
caused by the projected slower growth of trade
which employs over two-thirds of all sales workers.
The annual rate of growth of sales workers is
expected to be slower between 1980-85 than be
tween 1972-80, also following the trend in employ
ment in trade. As stores remain open longer and ex
pand into suburban areas, an increase in demand is
expected for retail salesworkers who account for
about half of all workers in the group. However,
changes in merchandising techniques, such as in
creased use of self-service, checkout counters, and
vending machines will retard the increase.
Growth among blue-collar groups
Craft and kindred workers. Employment in these
highly skilled blue-collar occupations is expected to
rise from just under 11 million in 1972 to 13.0 mil
lion in 1985, a slower rate of growth than over the
1960-72 period. Because of the unusual growth in
the number of construction craftworkers and me
chanics from 1971 to 1972, the rate of increase from
1972 is somewhat slower than the long-term trend.
The rising demand for these workers is expected
to stem from the growth in the two major industry
groups that employ large numbers of craftworkers—
manufacturing and construction. Construction activ
ity has a major effect on the number of craftworkers
because 1 out of every 2 workers in this industry is
in this group. Expected requirements for construc
tion craftworkers are projected to account for about
one-third of the total growth. Because of its much
larger size, manufacturing, in which about 1 in 5
is a craftworker, employs about the same number
of craftworkers as construction.
Operatives. More blue-collar workers are in this
group than in any other. Employment of operatives
is projected to rise from 13Vi million in 1972 to
over 15 million in 1985, a much slower rate of
increase than that for total employment. Conse
quently, the proportion of operatives relative to total
employment is expected to slide downward about a
percentage point by 1980 and another half point by
1985. Between 1980 and 1985, employment of
operatives is expected to grow very slowly, about
one-third the rate expected during 1972-80. This
reflects the expected slowing down of the growth
rate in manufacturing. Three of every five semi-
Table 4. Average annual rate of employment change by
major occupational group, 1960-1972 (actual) and 1972-85
(projected)
Occupational group
1960-72
1972-80
1980-85
1972-85
1.8
2.0
1.2
1.7
White-collar workers____ ____ ___ ____
Professional and technical workers...
Managers and administrators______
Sales workers__________________
Clerical workers.............................
2.7
3.9
.7
2.0
3.4
3.0
3.5
2.8
2.1
2.9
1.7
2.5
.8
.5
1.9
2.5
3.1
2.0
1.5
2.5
Blue-collar workers...............................
Craft and kindred w o rk e rs ____
Operatives_____________________
Nonfarm laborers............... .............
1.5
1.8
1.5
.7
1.2
.5
1.1
1.4
1.0
1.3
1.6
1.6
.7
2.3
Service workers_______________ ____ _
Private household workers________ - 2 . 6
3.4
Other service workers____________
1.9
- 1 .7
2.4
-3 .4
1.4
1.6
- 2 .4
2.0
- 4 .5
- 5 .4
- 4 .4
-5 .0
Total....... ................. ........... .
Farm workers__________ ___________
0
1.0
1.0
.4
NOTE: All data reflect the occupational classification into major groups used in the
1970 Census. However, operatives, except transport and transport equipment opera
tives, were combined into one group in this article.
skilled workers in 1972 were employed as operatives
in manufacturing. Large numbers were assemblers
or inspectors, and many worked as operators of
material-moving equipment such as powered forklift
trucks. Among the operatives employed outside fac
tories, drivers of trucks, buses, and taxicabs made
up the largest group. Through the projected period,
sophisticated technological advances are expected to
greatly slow employment growth for operatives.
Nonfarm laborers. Employment requirements for
laborers are expected to increase slowly between
1972 and 1985, despite the employment rise antici
pated in manufacturing and construction, the two
industries which employ two^fifths of laborers. This
reflects a change from the 1960-72 period when
employment of laborers increased nearly 1 percent a
year.
Increases in demand for laborers are expected to
be offset roughly by rising output per worker result
ing from the continuing substitution of machinery
for manual labor. For example, power-driven equip
ment such as forklift trucks, derricks, cranes, hoists,
and conveyor belts will take over more of the han
dling of materials in factories, at freight terminals,
and in warehouses. Other power-driven machines
will do excavating, ditch digging, and similar work.
In addition, integrated systems for processing and
handling materials and equipment will be installed
in an increasing number of plants.
Service workers
A growing population, expanding business activ
ity, increasing leisure time, and rising levels of dis
posable personal income are the major factors
underlying increased needs for service workers.
These occupations encompass a wide variety of jobs
and skills. They include such diverse jobs as FBI
agent, police officer, beauty operator, and janitor.
Employment of service workers is projected to
rise from 11 million in 1972 to over 13 million in
1985, a somewhat slower rate of growth than that
projected for total employment. Employment of pri
vate household workers, however, which make up a
large part of this major group, is projected to
decline from 1.4 million to 1.1 million. If private
household workers are excluded from the calcula
tions, service workers show a faster rate of growth
(29.1 percent) than total employment.
The projected 1972-85 rate of growth of service
workers (including private household workers) is
slower than that experienced over the 1960-72
period. However, growth between 1960 and 1972
was greatly affected by the very rapid expansion
during the 1969-72 period. The projected 1972-80
growth rate is near that experienced over the
1960-69 period. Between 1980 and 1985, the
growth rate is expected to be slower than in the
1972-80 period because of the projected slowdown
in the rate of growth in the service industries, which
employ about two-thirds of these workers.
Farm workers
These workers, who make up nearly 90 percent
of all workers in agriculture,3 are expected to decline
nearly one-half (3.1 million in 1972 to 1.6 million in
1985). This represents a somewhat faster rate of de
cline than in the 1960-72 period. Consequently,
their share of total employment also is expected to
fall between 1972-85 from 3.8 percent to 1.6 per
cent. The annual rate of decline is expected to be
slower between 1980 and 1985 (— percent) than
4.4
from 1972 to 1980 (-5.4 percent).
Declining needs for farm workers continue to be
related to rising productivity on farms. Improved
machinery, fertilizers, seeds, and feed will permit
farmers to increase output with fewer employees.
For example, improved mechanical harvesters for
vegetables and fruits will decrease the need for sea
sonal or other hired labor. Developments in pack
ing, inspection, and sorting systems for fruits, vege
tables, and other farm products also will reduce
employment requirements.
Net occupational openings
Projections of growth of occupations provide only
partial insight into the story of future manpower
requirements. Of equal (if not greater) importance
is the demand for new workers created by the
necessity of replacing workers who retire or die.
Over the 1972-85 period about twice as many
openings will result from replacements as from
growth. Over 61 million openings will occur due to
occupational growth and replacement needs during
1972-85, an average of about 4.7 million jobs
annually. Of these, replacement needs will account
for 2 of every 3 job openings. (See table 5.)
Replacement needs will be the most significant
source of job openings in each of the major occupa
tional areas—white collar, blue collar, service, and
farm. However, in individual occupations expected
to increase rapidly, growth requirements are likely
to exceed those for replacement. On the other hand,
replacement needs are likely to exceed the average
in those occupations that (a) employ many women,
who frequently leave the labor force to assume
family responsibilities, and (b) have a large propor
tion of older workers who have relatively few years
of working life remaining.
Implications for trained manpower
tions of complicated equipment for chemical analy
sis, and use of more highly sophisticated equipment
in occupations in offices, banks, insurance compa
nies, and government.
A great many of the implications of the new
projections stem from the projected supply-demand
picture for college graduates. United States colleges
and universities—principal suppliers of the country’s
most trained manpower—are expected to continue
turning out record numbers of graduates through the
mid-1980’s. (See chart 1.) The U.S. Office of Edu
cation has projected that a total of 20.1 million
degrees will be awarded over the 1972-85 period,4
including first professional.5
Degree
N um ber awarded Percent
from 1 9 7 2 -8 5 increase,
19 7 2 -8 5
(millions)
T o ta l________ ____
20.1
46
Bachelor’s
Master’s _
__ ______
Doctorate
_ __ ______
First professional _ _ ____
14.6
4.0
.6
.9
44
41
66
85
Not all degree recipients, however, can be consid
ered part of the effective new supply of college-edu
cated workers. Most master’s and doctorate degree
recipients are employed before receiving their
advanced degrees and are already considered part of
Table 5.
1972-85
Job op enings1 by major occupational group, ,
[In thousands]
In the past two decades, the rise in the educa
tional level of the labor force was paralleled by
rising educational requirements of jobs. This was
reflected in a more rapid growth of the major occu
pational groups with the highest educational attain
ment. The major apparent gaps were a shortfall of
college graduates trained to work in engineering, sci
entific, teaching, and medical professions during the
late 1950’s to the mid-1960’s. In looking to the
future, the question arises as to whether the increas
ing educational attainment of the population will
continue to be matched by an increase in the educa
tional requirements for satisfactory employment.
Despite this concern, there is little doubt that
employers are seeking people with higher levels of
education because many jobs are more complex and
require greater skill. Examples of this increasing
complexity are the introduction into health occupa
Occupational group
Total
Growth
Replace
ment
Total____________ _________________
61,200
19,800
41,400
White-collar workers___________________ ___
Professional and technical_______________
Managers, officials, and proprietors_______
Sales workers________________________
Clerical and kindred______ ____ ________
38,800
12,000
5,900
3,800
17,000
14,600
5,600
2,400
1,100
5,400
24,200
6,400
3,500
2,700
11,600
Blue-collar workers.......... ..................... ...........
Craft and kindred workers__________
Operatives2________ ________________
Nonfarm laborers____ ________ _____ ___
13,800
5,300
7,200
1,300
4,200
2,200
1,800
200
9,600
3,100
5,500
1,000
Service workers__________________________
Private household workers................ ..........
Other service workers__________________
8,500
700
7,800
2,400
-4 0 0
2,800
6,100
1,100
5,000
Farm workers............. ......................................
100
-1 ,4 0 0
1,500
1 Resulting from occupational growth and replacement of workers who leave the
labor force.
2 Includes the 1970 census classification, operatives, except transport and transport
equipment operatives.
NOTE: Details may not add to totals because of rounding.
Source: U.S. Office of Education.
the existing supply of college-educated workers.
Other degree recipients, especially at the bachelor’s
level, delay entry to the labor force to continue their
education, enter the Armed Forces, or become full
time housewives.
Relying on past patterns of entry into the labor
force, we can estimate 13.2 million persons will
enter the civilian labor force between 1972 and
1985 upon receiving their degrees; 11.2 million at
the bachelor’s level, 1.2 million at the master’s,
approximately 20,000 at the doctorate level, and
750,000 recipients of first professional degrees. (See
table 6.)
In addition, the supply of new graduates will be
augmented by more than 2.0 million persons with
college-level training who will come into the labor
force between 1972 and 1985. These expected addi
tions will consist of over 900,000 immigrants and
delayed entrants and reentrants to the labor force
—primarily women who delayed seeking a job or
who were working in earlier years but withdrew
from the labor force—and nearly 1.2 million per
sons entering the civilian labor force after separation
from the military. The new supply of college-edu
cated manpower expected to enter the labor force
from 1972-85 will total about 15.3 million.
Job opportunities for college-educated workers
will stem generally from three sources: growth in
employment of occupations currently requiring a
college degree for entry, the need to replace workers
in such occupations who die, retire, or leave the
Table 6.
Projected supply of college graduates, 1972—85
[In thousands]
Source of entrants
1972-85
1972-80
1980-85
Total__________________ ____ _______
15,250
8,850
6,400
New college graduates_________ __________
Bachelor's___________________________
Master's_______ ____________________
Doctor’s____ ________________ ______
First professional________________ ____ _
13,170
11,200
1,220
20
750
7,540
6,405
700
10
425
5,630
4,795
520
10
325
Military separations______ ____ ____________
1,150
750
400
910
560
350
Others____________________ ____ _________
labor force for other reasons, and the trend toward
hiring college graduates for jobs once performed by
workers with less educational attainment.
An analysis of growth, replacement, and rising
entry requirements indicates that 14.5 million new
college graduates will be needed between 1972 and
1985: 7.7 million to take care of occupational
growth and rising entry requirements, and 6.8 mil
lion for replacements. The following tabulation (in
millions) shows proportions for selected periods:
1972-85
1 972-80
1 9 8 0-85
T o ta l_______
14.5
8.8
5.7
Growth __________
Replacements ______
7.7
6.8
5.0
3.8
2.7
3.0
Thus, the available supply, 15.3 million, will be
about 800,000 above projected job requirements.
This prospective situation will affect workers across
the entire occupational spectrum.
The situation in which potential supply is greater
than prospective requirements is projected to be
more acute in 1980-85 than in 1972-80. The pro
spective “gap” is roughly 100,000 for the 1972-80
period and 700,000 for the 1980-85 period, or
140,000 a year. The widening of the gap arises from
the expected slowdown in the rate of growth of the
economy in the later period and not from an ac
celerated increase in degree recipients. In fact, the
rise in the number of degree recipients will slow over
1980-85. The average number of degrees granted
annually over 1972-80 is expected to be almost 70
percent or 585,000 higher than the previous 10
years’ average. But over 1980-85, degrees granted
will average only 19 percent or 277,000 higher than
in 1972-80. (See table 7.) However, job openings
in 1980-85 are expected to rise at an even slower
rate—by 4 percent annually, or barely 50,000 a year
more than the average in 1972-80.
The data have implications for what has been
described statistically as “rising entry requirements.”
Table 7. Average annual number off earned degrees, ac
tual 1962-72, and projected ffor selected periods, 1972-85
Period
Total
1962-72_________
855,900
1972-80.............
1,441,100
1980-85................. 1,718,200
1972-85.......... .
1,547,700
Bachelor's
633,000
1,043,500
1,248,600
1,122,400
Master's
Doctor's
166,500
292,100
333,800
304,200
22,800
44,700
55,000
48,600
First
profes
sional
33,600
67,200
80,900
74,700
There are job-related reasons why employers will
require increasing proportions of workers in many
occupations to have a college degree. However,
employers have traditionally preferred to hire per
sons with the highest educational qualifications
available, especially for white-collar jobs, even when
the educational attainment of the individual hired is
above that really needed to perform the job. Thus,
college graduates are expected to continue to have a
competitive advantage over those with less education
in competing for employment. Despite the apparent
surplus of college graduates for the 1980-85 period,
which is generated by statistics based on past pat
terns, it is unlikely that the unemployment rate of
college graduates will be affected significantly.
Rather, it is likely that college graduates will obtain
jobs previously held by individuals with less than 4
years of college. In general, graduates have reacted
to changes in the job situation in the past by taking
the best available job, and there is no reason to
assume that this will change. Problems for college
graduates will more likely be underemployment and
job dissatisfaction, resulting in increasing occupa
tional mobility rather than unemployment.
The apparent abundance of college graduates as a
whole does not imply that all supply-demand imbal
ances in the professions will be eliminated. Much
depends on the number of students who prepare for
each professional field. This will depend not only on
the choices students make, but also on the capacity
of schools of medicine, engineering, and other fields
where the number of students that can be accommo
dated is relatively inflexible over the short run.
It is difficult to predict the number of job oppor
tunities in a given field in relation to the number of
individuals who will choose careers in the field, but
it is useful to trace what would happen if recent
trends in the number of students who elect to study
and enter each field continued through the mid1980’s. Extrapolation of past experience indicates
potential sharp differences in supply-demand situa
tions among occupations. For example, if past
trends continue, personnel shortages can be antici
pated in some professions, notably medicine, chem
istry, and engineering, along with pronounced over
supply in others, particularly teaching and the
biological sciences. Imbalances of this kind may be
intensified unnecessarily, if shortrun job situations
are allowed to outweigh the long-range employment
outlook in making educational and career decisions.
In engineering, for example, freshman enrollments
dropped 11 percent between 1970 and 1971,
according to data of the Engineers Joint Council.
Yet manpower requirements are expected to rise
substantially in engineering over the 1970-80
decade as a whole, implying a replay of the 1960’s
scarcity of personnel in the profession unless the
downtrend in enrollments is quickly ended.
By contrast, indications are that the softened
demand for Ph. D.’s which characterized the
employment situation.in the last few years may not
improve as the decade progresses. Projections of the
National Science Foundation suggest that the oversupply of Ph. D.’s in the sciences and engineering
could range between 15,000 and 60,000 by 1980.6
Other studies 7 have indicated that the country may
produce more Ph. D.’s in all fields than will be
required. As with college graduates in general, a
greater number of Ph. D.’s than available jobs tradi
tionally requiring the degree implies underemploy
ment, if employed in the occupational area for which
the Ph. D.’s trained, or the necessity for Ph. D.’s to
shift to another occupation with a better supply-de
mand situation. The result in either case is likely to
be job dissatisfaction, however, rather than unem
ployment. However, this does not mean employment
problems will not exist. There is some evidence that
employers in private industry may not want to
employ scientists and engineers with Ph. D.’s in jobs
not requiring that level of education.8 They may not
want to hire workers who will be dissatisfied and
leave their jobs or who require too high a salary
compared to lesser trained workers who can per
form the same job.
The availability of more college-trained workers
is expected to have an adverse effect on many of the
less educated. It is likely to mean that, in the future,
workers with less than a college education will have
less chance of advancing to professional positions,
as many could do in the past, particularly in profes
sions such as engineering and accounting. They will
also have less opportunity for promotion to higher
level positions in sales, managerial, and some cleri
cal and service occupations. This is essentially a
problem of credentials. If the required educational
qualifications for a job rise more rapidly than the
actual education required to perform the job, the
availability of more college-educated workers will
limit advancement of workers with fewer years of
schooling. Such situations are very likely in sales.
College graduates, however, will not be in a more
favorable position in all occupations. In the crafts,
workers in greatest demand will be those who have
vocational training rather than a college education;
as in the past, persons with college degrees will make
little inroad in the crafts. Similarly, employers seek
ing operatives and laborers will be reluctant to hire
college graduates except for some part-time or tem
porary jobs because of the obvious potential for job
dissatisfaction. Moreover, in another broad occupa
tional area cldsely related to professional work—
paraprofessional and technical work—college gradu
ates are likely to face stiffer competition.
Community and junior colleges and other postsec
ondary schools have proven they can train workers
for many occupations in this category through 2-year
programs or less, and the number of students com
pleting these career educational programs is
expected to increase even more rapidly than college
graduates.
Based on a continuation of trends, it is projected
that only about one-fourth (23.7 percent) of all
openings over the 1972-85 period would require 4
years of college or more. However, trends indicate
that a .somewhat greater proportion of entrants to
the labor force will have such training. Thus, the
continuing emphasis on higher education could pose
a threat to the flow of energetic, intelligent man
power to manual occupations. If continued, this
emphasis could result in job dissatisfaction for those
who out of necessity enter manual jobs and make it
difficult for employers to fill many of the less desira
ble jobs. This could result in a greater proportion of
college graduates seeking self-employment in their
field, perhaps as a consultant or in a private
research agency, rather than accepting a job in
another occupation.
Another condition which may arise is that young
people in high school will become aware of the
plight of new college graduates who are not able to
enter the field of their choice and, thereby, change
their aspiration for a college education. Because cur
rent society esteems a college degree and recognizes
the benefit of a college education to aspects of life
other than work, such changed aspirations are not
anticipated in great numbers. The complexity of the
problem suggests the need for growing emphasis on
vocational guidance to provide young people with
the background needed to make a satisfactory
choice for education and career.
□
Statistics on employment in this chapter are based on
the concept used in the Current Population Survey in
which each individual is counted once in his major occupa
tion. The data for total employment here, therefore, differ
from the data in the chapter in this bulletin by Ronald E.
Kutscher, pp. 27-42, which presents a count of jobs. Since a
worker may hold more than one job, the job count data is
greater than that presented here. Additional differences
between the totals occur because the job count is based pri
marily on data from a survey of establishments collected
by State agencies in a cooperative program with the Bureau
of Labor Statistics and the count of individuals is based on
a survey of households conducted by the Bureau of the
Census for the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The reasons that
cause the employment count to differ between these two
surveys are indicated in Gloria P. Green, “Comparing
Employment Estimates from Household and Payroll
Series,” Monthly Labor Review, December 1969, pp. 9-20.
* See the chapter by Ronald E. Kutscher in this bulletin
for a discussion of the difference in the rate of growth in
total employment between 1972 and 1980 and 1980 and
1985.
3 This estimate is based on total and occupational
employment in agriculture as reported in the Current Popu
lation Survey, in which each individual is counted once in
his major occupation.
4 Thess projections are based on a continuation in the
patterns of enrollments in college by the college-age popu
lation. See Projections of Educational Statistics to 1980-81,
OE 72-99, for additional details on the basic assumptions
used by the Office of Education in developing projections
of earned degrees.
5 First professional degrees include degrees in law, medi
cine, dentistry, etc.
6 1969 and 1980 Science and Engineering Doctorate
Supply and Utilization (Washington, National Science
Foundation, 1971), NSF 71-20.
7 See, for example, Deal Wolfle and Charles V. Kidd,
“The Future Market for Ph. D.’s,” Science, Aug. 27,
1971, pp. 784-93, and Allan M. Cartter, “Scientific Man
power for 1970-85,” Science, Apr. 9, 1971, pp. 132-40.
8 Ph. D. Scientists and Engineers in Private Industry,
1968-80, Bulletin 1648 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1970).
Chapter 3.
Projections of GNP,
Income, Output, and Employment
RONALD E. KUTSCHER
G ross N ational P roduct is projected to increase
slightly faster during 1968-80 than it did during the
previous 15 years, but then to slow down consider
ably during 1980-85, according to projections of
the U.S. economy to 1985 by the Bureau of Labor
Statistics.1 This increase and the later sharp slow
down in the rate of economic growth reflect changes
in the pace of labor force growth. By contrast, pro
ductivity or output per man-hour in the total private
economy is expected to drift down very slowly dur
ing the 1968-80 period.
The slight increase in economic growth in the
1970’s followed by a sharp slowdown in the early
1980’s is an important factor influencing many ele
ments of the economy. The following shows the
1980-85 projected slowdown (as measured by the
average annual rate of increase) compared with the
rates for 1955-68 and 1968-80 for selected growth
components:*
1955-68 1968-80
Gross national product
(1972 d o lla r s ) ______
Personal income (current
dollars)
Private gross national
product per man-hour
(1972 d o lla r s ) ______
Employment (count of
jobs)
1980-85
3.7
4.0
3.2
6.3
8.0
6.5
3.0
2.9
2.8
1.6
1.9
1.2
Projected economic growth
Real gross national product in 1972 dollars is
projected to grow at 4.0 percent per year 2 com
pared with 3.7 percent in 1955-68. On the other
hand, the 1980-85 growth is appreciably slower at
3.2 percent a year.3 The projected 1968-80
Ronald E. Kutscher is chief, Division of Economic Growth,
Bureau of Labor Statistics.
increase in the growth rate over that of 1955-68 is
consistent with previous BLS projections and derives
from the projected accelerated growth in the labor
force in the 1970’s.
From 1972 to 1980, a rate of growth of 4.6 per
cent is projected, as shown in table 1. This rate,
which is substantially higher than the 1968-80 rate,
is derived because the 1972 unemployment rate was
higher than 4.0 percent and because of the shortfall
in productivity growth during 1968-72! Both are
reflected in the slow GNP growth during 1968-72.
These projections indicate that if estimates of
GNP were made for each year of the projection
rather than for two points in time (1980 and
1985), the slowing in the rate of increase in GNP
would begin about 1978 and continue at least
through 1985. This slowdown reflects the labor
force entry of children born in the late 1950’s and
1960’s when the birth rate was declining sharply.
Another change from the recent past is the rela
tive growth of the public versus the private sector.
The projected rate of increase in government GNP
during 1968-85 is 1.6 percent per year. This slow
down from the 1955— rate of 3.1 is overstated by
68
the choice of 1968—a peak year of our Vietnam
involvement—as a reference year. Much of the
slowdown will result from a decline in military and
related civilian employment, but State and local
employment also will increase more slowly than in
the 1955-68 period. In contrast to the slow rate of
growth in government gross national product,
1968-80 growth in the private sector is expected to
be 4.3 percent a year, up from 3.8 percent a year
during 1955-68. It will slow down again as labor
force growth slows in the early 1980’s.
Labor force. Economic growth depends on the size
of the labor force and employment, of hours of work
and productivity. To provide some perspective on
expected growth of the labor force during the pro-
Table 1. Changes in labor force, employment, productivity, and gross national product, selected years 1955-72 and
projected to 1980 and 1985
Average annual rate of grow th1
Projected
Actual
Category
1955-68
1968-72
1968-85
1968-80
1972-80
1980-85
107,716
4,229
103,487
6,622
1.47
-.0 9
1.53
2.30
1.98
14.49
1.45
-5 .3 1
1.60
2.42
1.57
1.19
1.79
2.95
1.75
1.21
1.70
- 2 .3 8
1.90
4.64
1.13
1.16
1.13
1.13
104,076
17,470
4,070
2,000
2,070
13,400
86,606
2,300
84,306
110,109
19,600
4,100
2,000
2,100
15,500
90,509
1,900
88,609
1.54
3.30
1.30
1.17
1.54
4.93
1.27
- 3 .9 4
1.72
1.05
.57
-5 .7 7
- 9 .0 8
- .8 7
4.04
1.15
- 2 .4 9
1.35
1.54
1.81
-1 .8 3
- 3 .2 7
.02
3.36
1.49
-4 .0 2
1.69
1.71
1.59
- 2 .6 4
- 4 .5 9
-.0 9
3.52
1.74
- 4 .1 3
1.98
2.05
2.10
- 1 .0 3
- 2 .2 7
.31
3.26
2.03
- 4 .9 4
2.30
1.13
2.33
.15
.00
.29
2.95
.89
- 3 .7 5
1.00
1,965
2,267
1,950
1,920
2,180
1,913
1,888
2,127
1,883
-.4 8
-.5 3
-.4 0
-.4 4
- .5 1
- .4 1
-.3 4
-.4 9
-.3 0
-.3 4
- .5 0
-.2 9
- .2 9
-.4 9
-.2 4
-.3 4
-.4 9
-.3 2
140,870
8,830
132,040
144,824
7,822
137,002
166,291
5,014
161,277
170,892
4,041
166,851
.78
- 4 .4 5
1.32
.69
- 2 .9 8
.93
1.14
-4 .6 1
1.39
1.39
- 4 .5 9
1.68
1.74
-5 .4 1
2.06
.55
- 4 .2 2
.68
6.42
3.69
6.60
7.04
4.40
7.19
9.02
7.04
9.09
10.34
9.18
10.37
3.02
5.54
2.61
2.33
4.50
2.16
2.84
5.51
2.69
2.87
5.53
2.70
3.15
6.05
2.97
2.77
5.45
2.67
$717.1 $1,038.6 $1,155.2 $1,657.9 $1,942.5
135.4
174.9
134.3
157.3
96.5
47.6
47.5
61.7
50.3
47.2
18.7
32.8
22.4
18.7
23.5
24.1
28.9
28.8
27.8
28.5
110.1
49.0
72.7
127.3
85.1
904.3 1,019.7
620.6
1,500.6 1,767.6
34.4
37.1
30.6
32.6
35.3
590.0
871.7
985.3 1,465.3 1,730.5
3.72
3.07
1.34
1.17
1.51
4.95
3.82
.85
3.96
2.69
.20
- 4 .9 8
-9 .0 9
-.8 8
4.02
3.05
1.25
3.11
3.75
1.57
-1 .5 1
- 3 .2 5
.02
3.35
4.02
.76
4.12
3.97
1.33
-2 .2 1
- 4 .5 7
-.0 9
3.52
4.31
3.67
4.42
4.62
1.89
-.7 9
-2 .2 3
.31
3.27
4.95
.33
5.09
3.22
2.14
.17
.00
.28
2.95
3.33
1.00
3.38
1955
1960
1968
1972
1980
1985
Total labor force (including military)... ...........
Unemployed____ _______ _______ _____
Employed (persons concept)2...................
Adjustment.factor (persons to jobs).........
68,072
2,852
65,220
4,032
72,142
3,852
68,290
3,502
82,272
2,817
79,455
5,418
88,991
4,840
84,151
4,355
101,809
3,992
97,817
6,259
Employment (jobs concept)2...........................
Government3...................... ...... .............
Federal................ ...................... .
Military_______________ ____ _
Civilian.................................
State and lo ca l.......... .....................
Private.......... ............ ...........................
Agriculture__________ _______ ___
Nonagriculture..............................
69,252
9,475
4,741
3,025
1,716
4,734
59,777
6,434
53,343
71,792
10,234
4,261
2,516
1,745
5,973
61,558
5,389
56,169
84,873
14,453
5,609
3,517
2,092
8,844
70,420
3,816
66,604
88,506
14,786
4,423
2,403
2,020
10,363
73,720
3,450
70,270
Average annual man-hours (private)4.............
Agriculture.............................................
Nonagriculture.......................................
2,130
2,480
2,088
2,067
2,366
2,039
2,000
2,314
1,982
Total private man-hours (millions)........... ...... 127,344
Agriculture.............................................. 15,959
Nonagriculture........................................ 111,385
127,265
12,750
114,515
4.88
2.40
5.15
Private GNP per man-hour (1972 dollars)........
Agriculture.............................................
Nonagriculture........................................
4.36
1.83
4.72
Total GNP (billions of 1972 dollars).................
Government........... ................................
Federal............................................
M ilita ry ...................................
Civilian......................................
State and local..................................
Private....................................................
Agriculture......... .............................
Nonagriculture................................
$645.9
90.7
51.9
28.2
23.7
38.8
555.2
29.2
526.0
1 Compound interest rate between terminal years.
2 Employment using a persons concept is a count of the number of persons holding
jobs or looking for them. Employment based on a jobs concept is a count of the number
of jobs held by people. Therefore, if persons hold more than one job, they are counted
more than once.
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and are used to be consistent with the na
tional income and product data. Government employment data shown elsewhere are
consistent with BLS employment data.
4
Limited to private because of the concept used to compute productivity and the
assumption of no change in hours in government.
3 The government employment data shown here are from the U.S. Department of
jected period, the following shows average annual
rates of growth in the total labor force during
selected periods:
Period
Annual growth
(in percent)
1955-68 _________________________
1968-80 ________________________
1980-85 _________________________
1.5
1.8
1.1
Chart 1 shows annual changes in the labor force
from 1951 to 1985, particularly the graphic slow
down during 1980-85.
When resources are fully utilized, changes in his
torical and projected growth rates come about
largely because of changes in the rate of increase in
the labor force (assuming no sharp departure from
the long-term trend in productivity and hours of
work). Thus the annual growth in gross national
product of 3.7 percent during 1955-68 was associ
ated with an annual increase in the labor force of
1.5 percent. The diminution in economic growth
expected during 1980-85 is associated with a
sharply lower annual rate of increase in the labor
force. It should be noted that the 1980-85 increase
in gross national product (3.2 percent a year) is
slower than most periods of comparable length in
the postwar era, especially if those years with less
than full (about 4-percent) unemployment are not
considered.4
Employment. To project economic growth to 1985,
it was necessary to estimate employment by assum
ing an unemployment rate. It was assumed the rate
would be 4.0 percent by the mid-1970’s and would
remain there through the projection period. Separate
employment estimates were made for each level of
government and for the private farm and nonfarm
sectors, because all have widely differing levels and
rates of increase in labor productivity.5 Federal civil
ian employment is projected to increase modestly
throughout the 1972-85 period, but because of a
projected decline in the military, overall Federal
employment shows a slight decrease. State and local
government employment is expected to continue to
increase, but more slowly than it did during
1955-68. Then a surge of pupil enrollment (the
baby boom) contributed to an employment expan
sion in public education, where about half of State
and local employees work. Farm employment is
expected to continue its long-term rate of decline—
about 4 percent a year—with little change. Private
nonfarm employment, largest component in the
employment picture, is expected to rise about 2.0
percent a year during 1968-80, slowing to 1.0 per
cent a year during 1980-85. Employment growth
for selected components is shown in the following
tabulation:
1 9 6 8 -8 0
Public employment ____ 1.6
___ -2.6
Federal
State and local ___ 3.5
___ 1.7
Private
Chart 1.
1 9 7 2 -8 0
2.1
-1.0
3.3
2.0
1 9 8 0 -8 5
2.3
.2
3.0
.9
Year-to-year change in total labor force, 1951-85
Average annual hours. The projected rate of decline
in farm hours will continue at the long-term rate of
about 0.5 percent a year.6 However, the projected
decline in hours in the private nonfarm sector of 0.3
percent a year is somewhat less than the 0.6 percent
a year experienced in that sector over the 1965-72
period, but more in line with the longer term trend.
This results from an expected retardation in the rate
of increase in part-time employment, a major factor
in the sharp decline in average hours in the 1960’s.
Output per man-hour. Productivity growth in the
farm sector is expected to continue in the range of
5.5 percent a year over the 1968-85 period (table
1). Productivity in the nonfarm sector is projected
to continue at 2.7 percent a year. Because of the
1968-72 shortfall in productivity growth, the rate
for 1972-80 is higher—nearly 3.0 percent a year.7
The rate of growth of productivity in the private
sector (combined farm and nonfarm) in the postwar
period has been 3.0 percent. When these sectors are
combined for the projected period, the rates of pro
ductivity gradually decline to 2.9 percent a year
during 1968-80 and 2.8 percent a year during
1980-85. As a consequence of the farm sector
growing smaller in employment terms, the rate of
productivity growth for the total private economy is
expected to gradually approach that of the nonfarm
sector.
appreciably faster during 1968-80 than during
1955-68, then slowing from 1980 to 1985 to a rate
more nearly comparable to the 1955-68 period.
The one major category not expected to follow this
pattern is government transfers to persons, which
are projected to grow at the 1955-68 rate over the
1968-80 period while the slowdown during
1980-85 is much sharper than for other income cat
egories. Broadened social security coverage and
more individuals on welfare contributed to recent
sharp increases in transfer payments. In the pro
jected period, such payments are expected to increase
only as real benefits or prices increase.
Personal income goes for consumption, savings,
interest, and taxes. Personal consumption expendi
tures will be discussed in detail in the next section.
In the 1968-80 period, differences between growth
in personal income and personal taxes is small
because of tax reductions in the Tax Reform Act of
1969 and a slowing in the rate of growth in State
and local tax collections. However, because of the
progressive nature of the income tax system and the
growth in social insurance contributions, taxes con
tinue to take an increasing share of income. Over
the 1980-85 period, the growth in taxes and the
resulting increase in its share of income is more pro-
Gross national product as income
Gross national product is a measure of the flow
of goods and services produced and consumed
annually. It can, therefore, be measured as it is pro
duced or as it is consumed. Gross national product
measured at the point of production—income GNP—
consists of the earning of the factors of production.
In this article, it is shown as the sources and uses
of income by persons, business, and government.8
Personal income: sources and disposition. Personal
income, the largest income category, is projected to
increase at 8.0 percent a year from 1968 to 1980
(stated in current prices) or appreciably faster than
over the 1955-68 period. This reflects both faster
real growth and a projected faster rate of price
increase. Growth in personal income slows down
from 1980 to 1985 because of the expected slowing
in growth of real GNP and because of a somewhat
lower rate of price increase. (See table 2 for the
relationships between the sources of personal
income and its disposition.)
Most categories of personal income (wages, sala
ries, dividends, government transfers) follow the
same pattern of growth as gross national product—
Table 2.
Personal income: sources and disposition, selected years 1955-72 and projected to 1980 and 1985
[Billions of current dollars]
Actual
Projected
Average annual rate of change1
Component
1955
1960
1968
Personal income: sources..............................
$310.9
$401.0
$688.9
Compensation of employees2...................
218.6
282.8
490.3
668.6
1,195.7
1,655.9
Government transfers to persons..............
16.1
26.6
56.1
98.3
178.4
227.6
Other sources3........................................
87.3
112.3
189.6
246.0
484.6
650.1
6.1
Less total contributions for social insurance___
11.1
20.7
47.1
73.7
129.3
164.1
Personal income: disposition...........................
310.9
401.0
688.9
939.2
1,736.5
Personal tax and nontax payments...........
Personal outlays........... ......... ................
Personal consumption expenditures..
Interest paid by consumers________
Personal transfers to foreigners_____
Personal savings........................ ............
35.5
259.5
254.4
4.7
.5
15.8
50.9
330.0
325.2
7.3
.5
17.0
97.9
551.2
536.2
14.3
.8
39.8
142.2
747.2
726.5
19.7
Other items:
275.3
Disposable personal income (D PI)...........
5.7
Saving rate (as percent of DPI)................
DPI per capita (current dollars)....... ........ 1,659.1
DPI per capita (constant 1972 dollars)___ 2,477.6
350.0
4.9
1,937.3
2,610.5
591.0
6.7
2,944.6
3,432.8
1972
1985
1955-68
1968-72
1968-85
1968-80
1972-80
1980-85
6.3
8.1
7.6
8.0
8.0
6.5
6.4
8.1
7.4
7.8
7.6
6.7
10.1
15.1
8.6
10.1
7.7
5.0
6.7
7.5
8.2
8.9
6.0
11.8
12.6
7.6
8.8
7.2
4.9
2,376.9
6.3
8.1
7.6
8.0
8.0
6.5
397.0
1,845.6
1,783.2
61.6
.8
134.3
8.1
6.0
5.9
8.9
3.7
7.4
9.8
7.9
7.9
8.3
5.7
5.7
8.6
7.4
7.3
9.0
8.8
7.9
7.8
9.8
7.4
8.1
8.3
7.8
7.8
10.5
-2 .8
9.3
8.1
6.2
6.2
7.0
49.7
269.3
1,365.9
1,321.2
43.9
.8
101.3
797.0
6.2
3,816.4
3,816.4
1,467.2
6.9
6,546.5
5,113.0
1,979.8
6.8
8,399.6
5,719.4
6.1
1.3
4.5
2.5
7.8
-1 .9
6.7
2.7
7.4
-.1
6.4
3.0
7.9
-.3
6.9
3.3
7.9
1.4
7.0
3.7
6.2
.3
5.1
2.3
$939.2 $1,736.5 $2,376.9
1.0
1 Compound interest rates between terminal years.
wage and salary income and other labor income.
2 Covers
3 Covers proprietors, income, rental income of persons, dividends, and personal
interest income.
1980
5.8
SOURCES: Historical data: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis; projections: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
nounced because the effect of the 1969 tax change
is no longer a factor. Saving, on the other hand, has
had and is projected to continue to have a rather
constant share of income. At the same time, interest
has shown a modest increase in its share of income
both historically and in the projected period. The
result of the increase in the portion of income going
to taxes and interest, and a fixed share to saving, is
for personal consumption, past and projected, to
represent a declining share of income. The percent
distribution of income is highlighted in the following
tabulation:
1955
1968
1972
1980
1985
Personal in c o m e ___ 100.0
Taxes (personal
and social insur
ance contribu
tions) ________ 11.4
5.1
Savings
Other (interest
and foreign
transfers) ____
1.7
Personal consump
tion expendi
81.8
tures
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
14.2
5.8
15.1
5.3
15.5
5.3
16.7
5.3
2.2
2.2
3.0
3.0
77.8
77.4
76.2
75.0
Another interesting statistic derived from these
projections is disposable personal income per capita,
crudely used as a measure of the standard of living.
Per capita disposable income in current dollars has
grown from $1,659' in 1955 to $3,816 in 1972
(table 2). It is projected to increase to $6,546 in
1980 and to $8,400 by 1985. In constant (1972)
Table 3.
dollars, the change is from $3,816 to $5,719 in
1985 or 3.1 percent a year—reflecting a truer meas
ure of improving standards of living. However, this
expansion— as is true with other elements of the
projections—has an uneven pattern of growth within
the projected period.
Gross saving and investment. In the projections, the
1968-80 growth in investment is appreciably higher
than the 1955-68 rate—8.5 percent compared with
5.0 percent (current prices). While part of this is
attributable to projected price increases of invest
ment goods and an expansion in the rate of real
growth in nonresidential investment, an additional
factor is the projected increase in residential con
struction. The major question concerning the financ
ing of this investment is the portion which is pro
jected to come from personal savings compared to
that from business (undistributed profits and capital
consumption allowances). Over the 1968-80 period
the business share of gross savings is expanding
while the personal savings share is declining. In the
1980-85 period this is not true, principally because
the personal savings growth is more nearly normal
(table 3). The changing percent distribution of gross
savings is highlighted in the following tabulation:
1955 1968 1972 1980
Gross savings __ 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Personal __ 24.4 31.0 28.9 29.8
Business __ 71.5 74.3 72.7 74.3
Government
(surplus or
deficit) __ 4.2 -5.3 -1.6 -4.1
1985
100.0
29.7
73.3
-3 .0
Gross saving and investment, selected years 1955-72 and projected to 1980 and 1985
[Billions of current dollars]
Projected
Actual
Average annual rate of change1
Component
1968
1972
1980
1985
$76.5
$125.6
$170.6
$340.2
$452.8
5.0
8.0
74.8
1.7
126.0
-.4
178.3
- 7 .6
344.6
5.6
445.3
7.5
4.9
1.7
9.1
64.8
77.5
128.4
172.1
340.2
452.8
5.4
7.6
7.7
8.3
8.9
5.9
Personal saving_____________________
Government surplus or deficit__________
Other3________ ___________________
15.8
2.7
46.3
17.0
3.7
58.6
39.8
- 6 .8
95.4
49.7
-2 .8
125.2
101.3
- 1 3 .8
252.6
134.3
-1 3 .4
331.9
7.4
. (2)
5.7
5.7
(2)
7.0
7.4
(2)
7.3
7.3
(2)
8.5
8.1
(2)
9.2
5.8
(2)
5.6
Statistical discrepancy_____________ ______
2.1
1.0
-2 .7
- 1 .5
0.0
0.0
(2)
(2)
(2)
(2)
(2)
1955
1960
Gross investment_______ ________________
$66.9
Gross private domestic investment______
Net foreign investment___ ___________
67.4
-.5
Gross saving........................................ .........
-
1 Compound interest rate between terminal years.
2 N . - nnijrahiP
3 Includes wage accruals less disbursements, undistributed profits, corporate in
ventory valuation adjustment, capital consumption allowances and capital grants
received by the U.S.
1955-68
(2)
1968-72
()
2
1968-85
1968-80
1972-80
1980-85
7.8
8.7
9.0
5.9
7.7
(2)
8.5
(2)
8.2
(2)
5.9
6.0
SOURCES: Historical data: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis; projections: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Government expenditures and revenues. Over the
1968-80 period the projected rate of increase in
Federal expenditures is a little less than revenues,
with both projected to increase about IV 2 percent a
year (current prices), moderately less than the
1955-68 rate (table 4 ).9 The implied 1972-80 rate
is not appreciably different although revenues
increase somewhat faster than expenditures.
Between 1980 and 1985, both Federal expenditures
and revenues are projected to grow at about 6 per
cent a year, in line with the expected slowing in the
economy. By contrast, over the 1955-68 period,
Federal expenditures increased somewhat faster than
revenues.
Federal purchases of goods and services have
been growing at a lower rate than that of all Federal
expenditures. In the 1968-80 projections, Federal
purchases of goods and services are projected to
slow further to 4.5 percent, largely reflecting the
projected lessening of the rate of expansion of mili
tary expenditures in the 1970’s, particularly when
measured from the peak Vietnam war year 1968.
(See table 4.) On the other hand, transfer payments
to persons and Federal grants-in-aid to State and
local government are projected to continue to
increase in the 1970’s at rates very close to those
prevailing over the 1955-68 period, although slower
than 1968-72. Between 1980 and 1985, both trans
fers and grants slow as Federal revenues slacken.
Purchases are not expected to show any significant
fall off because defense requirements are not that
directly affected by swings in the rate of growth.
The projections call for State and local govern
ment expenditures to increase at better than 10 per
cent a year (in current prices) for both revenues
Table 4.
and expenditures.1 (See table 4.) Between 1980
0
and 1985 the rate of increase of State and local rev
enues and expenditures slows to somewhat less than
8 percent a year.
Prices. The GNP deflator used in the projections
was, by assumption, set at a 3.0-percent increase a
year. The reduction to this rate would not be
reached until 1975 but would remain at this rate
through 1985. This implies an increase of 3.2 per
cent a year during 1972-80, considerably below the
1968-72 rate but above the longer term
1955-68 rate. Because of changes in the economy,
particularly the shift away from goods-producing
industries toward services and public sector employ
ment, the earlier lower average level of price
increase will be more difficult to achieve. Also,
while there may be considerable discussion about
what the long-term price outlook (consistent with a
4-percent rate of unemployment) might be, the cru
cial factor for these projections is the impact on the
structure of demand. Evaluations made of various
alternative rates of inflation show little difference in
the structure of real demand. This follows because,
in general, no particular changes in the pattern of
prices among the major components of GNP are
projected as they tend to keep their respective rela
tionship to the total GNP deflator.1
1
Purchasers of GNP
GNP can be measured alternatively in terms of
final purchasers of all goods and services. These
purchasers are consumers, business, foreign pur
chasers, and government.
Government revenues and expenditures, selected years and projected to 1980 and 1985
[Billions of current dollars]
Projected
Actual
Average annual rate of grow th1
Component
1955
1955-68
1968-72
1968-85
1968-80
1972-80
1980-85
$574.5
218.5
210.6
137.5
7.8
6.4
9.1
14.8
7.7
1.4
12.6
19.2
7.0
4.8
7.7
12.5
7.5
4.5
9.0
14.0
7.4
6.0
7.2
11.5
6.0
5.6
4.7
8.8
1980
1985
$93,016 $181,509 $244,576
98.768 104.446
53.531
23.398
59.945
96.336
18.675
37.677
6.521
$431.7
166.6
167.8
90.2
1960
1968
1972
Federal Government
Expenditures2____ _____ ____________ $68,094
44.090
Purchases of goods and services____
19.382
Transfers and net interest_________
Grants to State and local government..
3.120
Receipts___________________________
State and local government
Expenditures................... .......................
Receipts___________________________
72.086
96.478
175.025
228.684
421.1
570.0
7.1
6.9
7.2
7.6
7.9
6.2
32.663
31.393
49.636
49.856
107.466
107.120
164.023
177.155
353.0
349.8
514.7
505.8
9.6
9.9
11.2
13.4
9.7
9.6
10.4
10.4
10.1
8.9
7.8
7.7
1 Compound interest rates between terminal years.
2 Total Federal expenditures include subsidies less current surplus of government
enterprises which is not shown separately.
SOURCE: Historical data: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis; projections: Bureau of Labor Statistics,
Personal consumption expenditures. Consumers pur
chase nearly two-thirds of gross national product.
The growth of consumer expenditures usually does
not deviate substantially for very long periods from
total GNP growth. The projected expansion of con
sumer expenditures is in keeping with the long-run
trend—expansion at rates slightly faster than growth
in gross national product. Between 1972 and 1980,
growth in personal consumption expenditures is
projected at 4.6 percent a year (1972 dollars),
reflecting a catch up from the appreciable slowdown
in gross national product and personal consumption
during 1968-72 (table 5). The 1980-85 rate of
increase for consumer expenditures is expected to
slow to 3.3 percent a year.
The three major components of personal con
sumption expenditures—durables, nondurables, and
services—each show the same pattern of strong
growth during 1968-80, somewhat slower during
1980-85.1 However, the relative amount of slow
2
ing varies among the three components (rates of
growth in 1972 dollars):
1 9 5 5 -6 8
Total_____
Durables _______
Nondurables ____
Services ________
3.9
5.0
3.1
4.4
1 9 6 8 -8 0
1 9 7 2 -8 0
4.3
5.1
3.6
4.6
4.5
4.4
3.9
5.0
1 9 8 0 -8 5
3.3
3.1
2.8
3.8
The marked 1980-85 slowdown in durable con
sumer goods is projected for each of the durable
goods categories; however, the slowdown for auto
mobiles is even more pronounced and is the major
factor behind the very slow 1980-85 growth in
durables. This slowdown in the growth of automo
bile purchases is partially attributable to the slowing
in the growth in income, but also reflects the
assumption that congestion in urban areas, energy
shortages, pollution problems, and slower growth in
the younger population all will work toward a
dampening in auto purchases.
Nondurable goods, largely food and clothing, do
not exhibit the same dramatic slowing. In general,
these goods are relatively insensitive to changes in
income, implying that as income increases a smaller
part of the increase goes for food and clothing.
Therefore, historically, consumers’ purchases of
nondurable goods have expanded slower than over
all consumer expenditures.
No particular service dominates the category of
services as automobiles dominate among durable
goods and to some extent food among nondurables.
The projected 1968-80 growth in services is
expected to be faster than that for nondurable but
slower than that for durable goods. This was the sit
uation in the past, particularly in 1955-68. How
ever, during 1980-85 growth for services is higher
than the other consumption categories.
Investment. Another major part of private demand
is gross private domestic investment which covers
residential and nonresidential construction, produc
ers’ durable equipment, and the change in business
inventories. While significantly smaller than con
sumption, having ranged from about 13 to 17 per
cent of gross national product, investment is still an
important part of GNP because it represents the
Nation’s current commitment to future growth in the
economy. It continues to play an important role in
the capacity of the economy to maintain the rate of
increase in productivity. The following shows the
average annual rate of change in private investment
(in 1972 dollars) :
1 9 5 5 -6 8 1 9 6 8 -7 2 1 9 6 8 -8 0 1 9 7 2 -8 0 1 9 8 0 -8 5
T o ta l____
Nonresidential __
Structures__
Equipment __
Residential _____
2.4 4.0
2.3
4.1
2.9 - .5
5.0 3.9
-.7 10.6
4.7
4.9
4.0
5.5
4.2
5.1
6.3
6.3
6.2
1.1
3.0
3.2
3.1
3.3
3.4
Growth in construction of residential buildings
during 1968-80 is projected at 4.2 percent a year
and should be sufficient to permit enough housing
starts to meet the housing goals.1 Between 1968
3
and 1972, a very significant residential building
expansion has already taken place so that the
implied 1972-80 increase from this high level is
only 1.1 percent a year (table 5). The 1980-85
rate for residential construction slows compared
with the 1968-80 rate.
Nonresidential investment—business investment
in equipment (trucks, computers, machinery) as
well as in plants, commercial offices, shopping cen
ters, and so forth—is projected to expand in keep
ing with the overall expansion in the rate of growth
in gross national product during this period. The
pattern of most of the postwar period hias been for
the investment in buildings to increase at a lower
rate than equipment. In the projections, this pattern
is continued although the difference between the two
is narrowed sharply, primarily because of large out
lays on structures projected for utilities, chiefly elec
tric. Growth in producer durable equipment in the
[Billions of 1972 dollars]
Actual
Projected
Component
1955
Gross national product (demand concept)................ ......... ......... ......................
Personal consumption............ ............................... .
Durable goods_______________________________ ______________
Nondurable goods....... ................. ......................................
Services.......... ....................... ......... .........
Gross private domestic investment____ _____ ___________ ____________
Fixed investment........ ............ ..................... ...... ...........................
Nonresidential...................... ................. ..............
Structures................................................. ........................
Producer durable equipment___ _______ _____ ____________
Residential..................................................................
Changed in business inventory................. ......... .............. ...................
Net exports of goods and services.......................... .........................
Exports________ ____________________ _______________
Imports....... .................................... ..........................
Government purchases of goods and services......................... .....................
Federal government...........................................................
National defense.......... ......................
Other______________________
State and local government..................... ...........................
1960
1968
1972
1980
$645.9
379.9
48.8
178.8
152.3
112.3
103.8
64.4
29.5
34.9
39.4
8.4
3.6
27.2
23.6
150.2
87.0
76.2
10.8
63.1
$717.1
438.2
50.5
202.2
185.5
106.9
102.5
68.4
31.4
37.0
34.1
4.5
4.8
35.4
30.7
167.2
87.9
73.8
14.1
79.3
$1,038.6
625.1
91.5
266.9
266.7
152.6
144.2
108.1
42.5
65.6
36.1
8.4
.3
59.4
59.7
261.2
133.9
106.2
27.7
127.3
$1,155.2
726.5
117.4
299.9
309.2
178.3
172.3
118.2
41.7
76.5
54.0
6.0
-4 .6
73.5
78.1
255.0
104.5
74.4
30.1
150.5
$1,657.9
1,032.0
165.4
408.7
457.9
266.1
250.9
192.0
68.0
123.9
58.9
15.3
3.8
133.6
129.8
356.1
126.4
85.8
40.7
229.6
$1,942.5
1,214.2
192.3
469.0
552.9
309.0
294.3
224.7
79.1
145.5
69.7
14.7
3.8
169.7
166.0
415.5
140.0
93.1
46.9
275.5
100.0
62.2
10.0
24.7
27.6
16.1
15.1
11.6
4.1
7.5
3.6
.9
.2
8.1
7.8
21.5
7.6
5.2
2.5
13.8
100.0
62.5
9.9
24.1
28.5
15.9
15.2
11.6
4.1
7.5
3.6
.8
.2
8.7
8.5
21.4
7.2
4.8
2.4
14.2
1985
Percent distribution
Gross national product (demand concept)________ ___________
Personal consumption_______________ _________
Durable g o o d s..._____________________ _____ ______ .
_
Nondurable goods_________ ______ ______ ____
Services___________________________________________ _________
Gross private domestic investment...____________ _________
Fixed investment___________ _______ _____ ________
Nonresidential___________________________ ____ ____________
Structures....... ..................................................
Producer durable equipment..... ........... .................................
Residential_______ ______ ____ ____ ____ ________
Changed in business inventory........ . .
Net exports of goods and services................. .............................
. .
Exports_______ ________ ____________
...
Imports.._________________ ___________
Government purchases of goods and services..
Federal government................... ................... .
......
National defense________________
Other________ _____________
State and local government..... ......... .......... ....................
100.0
58.8
7.6
27.7
23.6
17.4
16.1
10.0
4.6
5.4
6.1
1.3
.6
4.2
3.7
23.3
13.5
11.8
1.7
9.8
100.0
61.1
7.0
28.2
25.9
14.9
14.3
9.5
4.4
5.2
4.8
.6
.7
4.9
4.3
23.3
12.3
10.3
2.0
11.1
100.0
60.2
8.8
25.7
25.7
14.7
13.9
10.4
4.1
6.3
3.5
.8
-
0.0
5.7
5.7
25.1
12.9
10.2
2.7
12.3
100.0
62.9
10.2
26.0
26.8
15.4
14.9
10.2
3.6
6.6
4.7
.5
-.4
6.4
6.8
22.1
9.0
6.4
2.6
13.0
Average annual rate of change1
1955-68
Gross national product (demand concept)..... ....................... ...........................
Personal consumption___ ______ ______ _____ ___________ __________
Durable goods____ ________________________________ _________
Nondurable goods____ _______ _______________ ____ ____________
Services______ ____ ______________ _______________ ____ _____
Gross private domestic investment__________________________________
Fixed investment__________ ____ ____ ______________ ______ ___
Nonresidential........................... ................ ......... .......... .......
Structures........................................ ..................................
Producer durable equipment....................... .......... ................
Residential.......................................................
Changed in business inventory............... ........................ ......... ...........
Net exports of goods and services.............................................................
Exports........... ................................ .............. ....................................
Imports..........................................................................
Government purchases of goods and services_____ _______ ____________
Federal government................................. ...... ............................. .
National defense______________ _____ _____________________
Other.................... .............................. .
.. .
State and local government.......................... ............... ...................
1 Compound interest rate between terminal years.
2 Not applicable.
1968-72
1968-80
1968-85
1972-80
1980-85
3.7
3.9
5.0
3.1
4.4
2.4
2.6
4.1
2.9
5.0
-.7
-0 .0
(1
2)
6.2
7.4
4.4
3.4
2.6
7.5
5.5
2.7
3.8
6.4
3.0
3.8
4.0
4.6
2.3
-.5
3.9
10.6
- 8 .0
(2)
5.5
7.0
-.6
- 6 .0
- 8 .5
2.1
4.3
4.0
4.3
5.1
3.6
4.6
4.7
4.7
4.9
4.0
5.5
4.2
5.1
(2)
7.0
6.7
2.6
-.5
- 1 .8
3.2
5.0
3.8
4.0
4.5
3.4
4.4
4.2
4.3
4.4
3.7
4.8
3.9
3.4
(2)
6.4
6.2
2.8
.3
-.8
3.1
4.7
4.6
4.5
4.4
3.9
5.0
5.1
4.8
6.3
6.3
6.2
1.1
12.4
(2)
7.8
6.6
4.3
2.4
1.8
3.8
5.4
3.2
3.3
3.1
2.8
3.8
3.0
3.3
3.2
3.1
3.3
3.4
-.8
- .1
4.9
5.0
3.1
2.1
1.7
2.9
3.7
SOURCE: Historical data: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis; projections:- Bureau of Labor Statistics.
projected period is led by computers and the ubiqui
tous photocopying equipment.
Net exports. The final component of private demand
is net exports of goods and services. Both imports
and exports are projected to increase faster than
gross national product, thus over time constituting a
gradually increasing share of GNP. Over the
1968-85 period, U.S. exports are projected to
expand rapidly with agricultural exports and the
nonmerchandise component, principally return on
investments, leading the expansion. These increases
are expected to offset the very large increase pro
jected in oil imports. (See table 5.)
The projected turnaround in our import-export
position is expected to flow, at least in the near
term, from the recent devaluations of the U.S. dollar
and revaluations of currencies of some of our major
trading partners. Also, our exports, particularly agri
cultural products, are expected to increase in the
new markets of Russia and China. At the same
time, currency realignments will make U.S. imports
more expensive, slowing the very high rates of
increase recently experienced. An additional factor
in the slowdown is the return of U.S. military
expenditures abroad to pre-Vietnam levels.
The projections of imports for most industries
assume that the 1972 ratio of imports to total
supply will remain through 1980 and 1985. The
exception to this is the crude petroleum and refined
petroleum sectors, which are both increased signifi
cantly in line with Interior Department projections
on use of imported crude and to a greater extent
imported refined petroleum to meet our energy
needs.1 For exports, the projections are for return
4
on investment to continue to be an increasing part
of U.S. exports. Among individual industries,
exports of aircraft, computers, office machines, and
agricultural products are expected to have an
increasingly important place.
Government. Public purchases of goods and serv
ices, projected separately for Federal, and State and
local government, will change at the following aver
age annual rates (computed in 1972 dollars):
1 9 5 5 -6 8
Total _______
Federal___________
Defense _______
Nondefense ____
State and local______
4.4
3.4
2.6
7.5
5.5
1 9 6 8 -8 0
2.6
- .5
—1.8
3.2
5.0
1 9 7 2 -8 0
4.3
2.4
1.8
3.8
5.4
1 9 8 0 -8 5
3.1
2.1
1.7
2.9
3.7
While Federal purchases of goods and services show
little change during 1968-80, this results from
defense and nondefense purchases moving in oppo
site directions, as the tabulation shows.1 The slower
5
growth projected for nondefense purchases than pre
vailed in 1955-68 follows from the peaking of the
space program and the low growth potential which
it offers for the future. Since military and civilian
defense-related manpower will be at the same or
lower levels, the increase in defense purchases is
projected to be directed toward an increasingly
sophisticated and costly military hardware, particu
larly ships as we replace our obsolete fleets. The
projections for 1980-85 show defense purchases
growing at less than 2 percent, nondefense pur
chases at about 3 percent a year.
State and local government purchases have been,
over the past 15 years, one of the fastest growing
components of demand. The anticipated slowing of
the rate of increase masks some major changes in
the pattern of expenditures. Perhaps the most
important is the diminished role of educational serv
ices relative to other purchases. The number of stu
dents enrolled in public schools (elementary through
college) is expected to peak in 1974 and decrease
slowly for at least the next 5 years. Even allowing
for significant quality improvements in the educa
tional system (at least measured by real expendi
tures per pupil), real educational expenditures are
projected to increase at an average annual rate of
only 3.4 percent in the 1970’s compared with 6.0
percent in the 1963-70 period.
Spending on the construction of streets and high
ways was actually less in real terms in 1970 than in
1963, and little growth is projected through 1980
and 1985. This follows from completion of the
major portion of the Interstate Highway System,
public resistance to further construction in urban
areas, and increased emphasis on mass transit.1
6
The trends in these two major areas of traditional
State and local responsibility—schools and highways
— are, of course, offset to some extent by greatly
increased demands for other public services (water
and sanitary services, health care, mass transit,
power generation, airport facilities, urban renewal
and public housing, and parks and recreational facil
ities).
Output and employment
Composition of output by sector. Output shifts pro
jected for 1968-85 are shown in table 6.1 Overall,
7
Sector
1960
1955
1968
1980
1985
1,500.6
35.3
1,465.3
20.2
71.5
428.6
268.5
160.1
164.7
71.8
50.5
42.4
281.1
116.0
165.1
250.5
223.6
25.8
-.7
1,767.6
37.1
1,730.5
20.4
77.9
499.1
313.5
185.6
202.0
83.6
64.8
53.6
318.9
132.6
186.3
303.5
269.9
30.9
7.8
100.0
2.4
97.6
1.3
4.8
28.6
17.9
10.7
11.0
4.8
3.4
2.8
18.7
7.7
11.0
16.7
14.9
1.7
.0
100.0
2.1
97.9
1.2
4.4
28.2
17.7
10.4
11.4
4.7
3.7
3.0
18.0
7.5
10.5
17.2
15.3
1.7
.4
1980-85
1972
B illio n s of 1972 dollars
Total.................. ......................................................................... ........................
Agriculture................... ............................................. ..................................
Nonagriculture-------------------------------- --------- --------- ------ ---------------- ----Mining............................................................................. ...... ................
Contract construction........... .. ..................................... ..........................
Manufacturing.............. ................................ ...... ........... ........................
Durable............... ............................................ ................ ..............
Nondurable................. ........... .............. ..........................................
Transportation, communication and public utilities............................ .........
Transportation........................................ ............ ................... ......
Communication.......................................... ..................... ...... .........
Public utilities__________________ _______________________ ____
Trade............ ............... ........................... .................... ........................
Wholesale..................................... .................................................
Retail_______________ ________ ___ ______ _______ ____________
Finance, insurance, and real estate................................................. ...........
Other services____ ______ ______ ______ ________ ________ _______ _
Government enterprises.............. ...................... ...................... ..............
Rest of world plus statistical discrepancy............ ......................................
555.2
29.2
526.0
13.7
47.1
159.6
98.2
61.4
46.6
27.9
8.2
10.5
100.5
34.5
66.0
82.1
72.0
8.9
-4 .5
620.6
30.6
590.0
14.0
49.3
168.1
98.5
69.6
53.7
28.5
11.0
14.2
115.0
42.1
72.9
99.9
88.0
9.3
- 7 .3
904.3
32.6
871.7
17.4
54.0
261.9
160.4
101.5
84.5
42.1
20.3
22.1
167.8
67.0
100.8
148.4
123.8
15.3
-1 .4
1,019.7
34.4
985.3
18.2
56.0
290.7
170.7
119.9
102.3
45.8
28.5
28.0
194.5
77.7
116.7
163.8
135.9
18.0
6.0
Percent distribution
Total........................................................................................................ - ...........
Agriculture______ ________ _______________ ____ _____ _____ ______ ____
Nonagriculture_________________________ ______ ____ ____ ____ _____
Mining________________ ______ __________________ ______ _________
Contract construction......... ............ .......... .............................................
Manufacturing.................... ...................................................................
Durable_____________________ ___________ ______ ____ _______
Nondurable...................................... .................................................
Transportation, communication, and public utilities....................................
Transportation............ ................ ...... ................... ..................... ......
Communication_____ ___________ _______ ______ ____ __________
Public utilities.............. ............................... ........... .........................
Trade_________________ ______ ________________ ____ ___________
Wholesale____ ___________________________________ _______ _
Retail_______________ ____ _____ ______ ____ _____ ____ ______
Finance, insurance, and real estate_____________ ____________ _______
Other services_____ ____ _______________________________________
Government enterprises...................................................................... .
...........................................
Rest of world plus statistical discrepancy....... «
100.0
5.3
94.7
2.5
8.5
28.7
17.7
11.1
8.4
5.0
1.5
1.9
18.1
6.2
11.9
14.8
13.0
1.6
- .8
100.0
4.9
95.1
2.3
7.9
27.1
15.9
11.2
8.7
4.6
1.8
2.3
18.5
6.8
11.7
16.1
14.2
1.5
- 1 .2
100.0
3.6
96.4
1.9
6.0
29.0
17.7
11.2
9.3
4.7
2.2
2.4
18.6
7.4
11.1
16.4
13.7
1.7
-.2
100.0
3.4
96.6
1.8
5.5
28.5
16.7
11.8
10.0
4.5
2.8
2.7
19.1
7.6
11.4
16.1
13.3
1.8
.6
Average annual rate of change2
Projected
Actual
1955-68
1968-72
1968-85
1968-80
1972-80
Total........ .......................................................................... ...........................
Agriculture................................................ .............. .................... ................
Nonagriculture................................................... ................................ ...........
Mining________ ______ ___ ______ ____ ______ - ------------- --------------Contract construction.............. ......... ....................................................Manufacturing......... ........... ..................................................... ..............
Durable_________________________ _______________ ____ ______
Nondurable................................. ...... ...................... .....................
Transportation, communication, and public utilities................. ...................
Transportation..................................................................................
Communication............... ............................................... ..................
Public utilities........................... ............... ............... ............. .........
Trade............................ ............................................................... ........
W holesale.................................... ........... ......................... ............
Retail....... ..................... ................ ......... ........................................
Finance, insurance, and real estate....... ......... ........... ...... ........................
Other services................ ............ ...........................................................
Government enterprises..........................................................................
3.8
.9
4.0
*1.9
1.1
3.9
3.8
3.9
4.7
3.2
7.2
5.9
4.0
5.2
3.3
4.7
4.3
4.3
3.0
1.4
3.1
1.1
.9
2.6
1.6
4.3
4.9
2.1
8.9
6.1
3.8
3.8
3.7
2.5
2.4
4.1
4.0
.8
4.1
.9
2.2
3.9
4.0
3.6
5.3
4.1
7.1
5.4
3.8
4.1
3.6
4.3
4.7
4.2
4.3
.7
4.4
1.3
2.4
4.2
4.4
3.9
5.7
4.5
7.9
5.6
4.4
4.7
4.2
4.5
5.1
4.5
4.9
3.3
.3
1.0
3.4
.2
1.7
3.1
3.1
2.9
4.2
3.1
5.1
4.8
2.6
2.7
2.4
3.9
3.8
3.7
1 The concept of gross product originating attributes to each industry only that
part of income gross national product originating there.
SOURCES: Historical data: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis; projections: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
2 Compound interest between terminal years.
5.1
1.3
3.1
5.0
5.8
3.7
6.1
5.8
7.4
5.3
4.7
5.1
4.4
5.5
6.4
4.6
total private gross national product is projected, par
ticularly during 1968-80, to grow more rapidly than
during 1955-72. Thus, all other things being equal,
most sectors will grow somewhat faster than in the
past. However, within the speeding up (1972-80)
and slowing down (1980-85), important shifts in
the relative importance of sectors takes place. Agri
culture and mining will continue to decline, but the
decline in the relative importance of construction
will be checked, principally by the projected expan
sion in residential housing and nonresidential struc
tures. Manufacturing, which has accounted for
about 27 to 29 percent of output over the past 15
years, is not expected to move outside that range in
the projected period.
Wholesale and retail trade’s share of total gross
product originating, on the other hand, is expected
to show a moderate decline— at least from the 1972
level—particularly in 1980-85 as the economy
slows down and the amount of goods moved
through trade channels moderates even more. With
business and professional services and medical serv
ices all showing strong growth, services is projected
to expand in the future. At the same time, finance,
insurance, and real estate’s share of gross national
product has increased appreciably in the past and is
expected to increase further during 1972-85. Thus,
the shift to a service economy, which is particularly
true of employment, is at least partially attributable
Table 7.
to output shifts. The shifts in output structure are
not as pronounced as the shifts in the structure of
employment, yet they are a factor in the changing
distribution of employment along with the relative
growth in productivity.
Productivity changes by sector. Over the 15-year
period beginning in 1955, the average annual rate of
productivity change for the total private economy
was 3.0 percent. This rate of increase declines to
2.9 percent a year in 1968-80 and 2.8 percent a
year in 1980-85.1 Table 7 shows the relative
8
changes in productivity by sector historically and in
the projected period.
Productivity growth in a sector relative to its past
growth is important for its effect on employment
shifts. The projections of productivity in mining
reflect a considerably slower rate of increase than
prevailed in earlier periods. Manufacturing produc
tivity will grow during 1968-80 slightly faster than
its historical rate but in line with its slightly faster
growth in output. Also, productivity in trade, in
services, and in construction over the projected
period reflects an increase over their historical rates
of gain. Relative growth in productivity among the
sectors is also an important element in employment
shifts. Therefore, the projection of lower-than-average productivity in the other services sector and in
finance, insurance, and real estate, along with the
Productivity change by sector, average rate during selected periods 1948-72 and projected to 1980 and 1985
Average annual growth ra te 1
1955-68
1968-72
1968-85
1968-80
1972-80
1980-85
3.2
5.8
2.7
4.0
(3)
2.9
(3)
(3)
3.0
5.5
2.6
3.6
(3)
2.7
2.4
3.2
2.3
4.5
2.2
1.0
(3)
3.8
3.3
4.7
2.8
5.5
2.7
.9
.8
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
5.5
2.7
.9
.8
3.1
3.2
2.9
3.2
6.1
3.0
.9
1.5
2.7
3.1
2.0
2.8
5.5
2.7
.8
.7
2.6
2.4
2.8
(3)
3.2
5.6
5.8
2.8
(3)
(3)
(3)
(3)
(3)
4.5
3.5
5.9
5.1
2.9
3.5
2.5
(3)
(3)
(3)
3.9
2.4
5.0
3.5
1.9
1.8
1.9
(3)
(3)
(3)
4.3
3.4
5.3
4.3
2.7
2.5
2.6
1.6
2.5
2.8
4.4
3.6
5.4
4.3
2.7
2.7
2.6
1.4
2.5
2.7
4.6
4.1
5.6
4.7
3.1
3.2
3.0
2.8
3.6
2.6
4.0
3.1
4.9
4.3
2.5
2.1
2.6
1.9
2.4
2.9
1948-68 2
Total private_________________________________
Agriculture__________ ____ _______________
Nonagriculture_______ ______ _____________
Mining______________________ ________
Contract construction___________ _____ _
Manufacturing_________ ____ ___________
Durable_____ _____ _______________
Nondurable____________ ________
Transportation, communication, and public
utilities____ _____ ________________
Transportation________________ ___
Communication.________ ___________
Public utilities_____________________
Trade.......................................................
Wholesale________________________
Retail______ _______ ____________
Finance, insurance, and real estate...... ......
Other services___________ _____ ___ ____
Government enterprises________ _ _ ____
1 Compound interest between terminal years.
2 Least squares growth rates.
3 Not available.
Projected
Actual
Sector
NOTE: Productivity data are GNP per man-hour with the GNP stated in constant
1972 prices.
relative shifts in output to these sectors, contribute
to their rapid growth in employment.
Changes in hours by sector. Average annual hours
in the nonfarm economy are projected to decline
somewhat less rapidly than the 0.4 percent of a year
of the 1955-72 period (on an hours-paid-for basis).
This rapid decline has brought about a drop in aver
age weekly hours from 41.0 in 1955 to 37.5 by
1972. The projected decline in hours in the nonfarm
economy of 0.3 percent a year anticipates a further
drop in average hours to slightly over 36 per week
by 1985. Most of the past decline has occurred in
retail trade and services (table 8). The 1980-85
projection continues to show a more pronounced
decline in hours in retail trade and other services
than in the other major sectors. Historically, the
sharper decline in hours in these sectors is related,
at least in part, to an increase in part-time employ
ment in retail trade and services. The projections in
retail trade and other services continue the rather
sharp decline in hours— albeit at diminishing rates
—reflecting the decline projected in the rate of
increase in part-time employees.
Composition of employment by sector. Employment
is a primary focus of these projections. Between
1972 and 1980, projected growth in employment
(on a job count basis) is expected to be 16 million
or an average of 2.0 million jobs a year (2.2 per
cent a year).1 From 1980 to 1985, the projections
9
show an expected increase of 6 million more jobs or
only 1.2 million a year, (1.2 percent a year), reach
ing over 107 million jobs by 1985 or 22 million
more jobs than in 1972 (table 9). However, an
important point of these projections is the dramatic
difference in growth in jobs 1972-80 (2.0 million
per year) compared to the 1980-85 (1.2 million a
year). This compares with an employment growth
of 1.2 million jobs a year 1955-72 (1.6 percent a
year).
Generally, projections of employment, particularly
in the major sectors, reflect continuation of employ
ment shifts taking place for most of the postwar
period (chart 2). Any changes tend to be in degree
rather than direction. However, transportation and
mining, which until recently experienced declines,
are expected to show increases in the future. The
employment turnaround in mining reflects both the
resurgence of coal and a general dampening in
mining productivity. The transportation turnaround
results from increased importance of transportation
modes other than rails, which are declining. Another
employment category which had been increasing
until about 1965 is private household help. Since
then, the number of jobs in paid household employ
ment declined, and this decline is projected to con
tinue as this type of employment appeals to fewer
and fewer.
Despite
expected moderation,
government
Table 8. Average annual hours by sector: average annual rate of change for selected periods 1948-72 and projected
to 1980 and 1985
Actual
Projected
Sector
1948-68
Total private____________ ____ ________________
Agriculture..____ _______________ ________
Nonagriculture____________________________
Mining____ _____________ ________ ..
Contract construction___________________
Manufacturing_______ _________________
Durable____ ___________________
Nondurable_______________________
Transportation, communication, and public
utilities________ ________________________
Transportation______ __________________
Communication________________________
Public utilities_______________ _____ ___
Trade______ ____ ______________ _______ _
Wholesale____________________________
Retail________________________________
Finance, insurance, and real estate____________
Other services (includes private household
workers)........................................................
1 Less than .05 per year change.
N0t applicable.
2
1955-68
1968-72
1968-85
1968-80
1972-80
1980-85
-0 .4
- 0 .5
-0 .5
-0 .3
- 0 .3
- 0 .3
-0 .3
- .6
- .3
.6
-.3
(1)
(2)
(2)
-.5
-.4
.3
— .1
- .1
- .1
- .1
-.5
-.4
- .1
-.3
-.1
C
1)
(*)
- .5
-.3
.1
- .1
(1
)
(>
)
(*)
-.5
-.3
.1
.1
(1
)
C
1)
(*)
-.5
-.3
.1
.2
- .5
-.3
.2
.1
(')
(')
(')
(l )
(1
)
(l )
(2)
-.2
- .1
- .1
-.5
(2)
(2)
-.2
- .1
-.2
(l )
C
1)
- .7
-.2
- 1 .0
-.3
- .1
- .1
-.3
(l )
-.7
-.2
-.9
(l )
- .1
-.1
(1
)
C
1)
-.6
-.1
- .8
-.1
- .1
-.1
(1
)
(*)
-.6
-.1
-.8
-.1
(1
)
- .1
.1
(‘ )
-.5
-.1
- .7
-.1
-.1
(*)
(*)
(l )
-.6
-.1
-.8
-.1
-.6
-.7
-.4
- .4
-.4
-.4
-.4
NOTE: Growth rates are compound interest rate between terminal years except
for 1948-68 data which are least squares growth rate.
Table 9.
Total employment, by major sector, selected years 1955-72 and projected to 1980 and 1985
[Thousands of jobs]
Actual
Projected
Sector
1955
Total_________________________________________________________________
Government1_______ _______ _____ ________________________ ________
Total private..................................................................................................
Agriculture....................................................... ....................................
Nonagriculture....................................................... ................................
Mining................................ ......... .................................................
Construction............... .......... ................. ................................... .
Manufacturing................................................................................
Durable....... ............................... .........................................
Nondurable___ _____ ____________ _____ ______ ___________
Transportation, communication, and public utilities.......... ...... .............
Transportation....... ................ ....................................................
Communication......... ........................... ...................... ..............
Public utilities____________ ____________ _________________
Trade___________ ____________________________________ _____
Wholesale trade____________________________ _________
Retail trade.................. ....................... ................................... .
Finance, insurance and real estate............... ................... .......... ........
Other services1 . . ..........................................................................
2.
1960
1968
1972
1980
1985
65,745
6,914
58,831
6,434
52,397
832
3,582
17,309
9,782
7,527
4,353
2,918
832
603
13,201
3,063
10,138
2,652
10,468
68,869
8,353
60,516
5,389
55,127
748
3,654
17,197
9,681
7,516
4,214
80,926
11,845
69,081
3,816
65,265
640
4,038
20,138
11,828
8,310
4,519
2,868
986
665
16,655
3,894
12,761
3,720
15,555
85,597
13,290
72,307
3,450
68,857
645
4,352
19,281
11,091
8,190
4,726
2,842
1,150
734
18,432
4,235
14,197
4,303
17,118
101,576
16,610
84,966
2,300
82,666
655
4,908
22,923
13,629
9,294
5,321
3,250
1,300
771
21,695
4,946
16,749
5,349
21,815
107,609
18,800
88,809
1,900
86,909
632
5,184
23,499
14,154
9,345
5,368
3,266
1,312
790
22,381
5,123
17,258
5,932
23,913
100.0
16.4
83.6
2.3
81.4
.6
4.8
22.6
13.4
9.2
5.2
3.2
1.3
.8
21.4
4.9
16.5
5.3
21.5
100.0
17.5
82.5
1.8
80.8
.6
4.8
21.8
13.2
8.7
5.0
3.0
1.2
.7
20.8
4.8
16.0
5.5
22.2
2,743
844
624
14,177
3,295
10.882
2,985
12,152
Percent distribution 3
Total........................................................................... ................. .....................
Government1_______________ _______________ ______ _________________
Total private_____ ____________ ___________________ _________________
Agriculture...............................................................................................
Nonagriculture....... ...... ......................................................... ..................
Mining.................................................. ........................................ .
Construction.......... ................................... ............ ........................
Manufacturing........... .............................. ...... ......................... ........
Durable........................... ................ ......................... ..............
Nondurable.......... ............................................... ...................
Transportation, communication, and public utilities........................... .
Transportation.............................................. .............. ..............
Communication.................................. .......... .......................... .
Public utilities____ _______ ________ ___ ___________________
Trade..... ........... ..................................... ........... ........................ .
Wholesale trade.......................................................... ..............
Retail trade____________________ _____ ________ _________ _
Finance, insurance, and real estate____ ________ ________________ _
Other services.............................................................................. .
100.0
10.5
89.5
9.8
79.7
1.3
5.4
26.3
14.9
11.5
6.6
4.4
1.3
.9
20.1
4.7
15.4
4.0
15.9
100.0
12.1
87.9
7.8
80.0
1.1
5.3
25.0
14.1
10.9
6.1
4.0
1.2
.8
20.6
4.8
15.8
4.3
17.6
100.0
14.6
85.4
4.7
80.6
.8
5.0
24.9
14.6
10.3
5.6
3.5
1.2
.8
21.6
4.8
15.8
4.6
19.2
100.0
15.5
84.5
4.0
80.4
.8
5.1
22.5
13.0
9.6
5.5
3.3
1.3
.9
21.5
4.9
16.6
5.0
20.0
Average annual rate of change4
1955-68
Total..................... ................................................... ........................... ..............
Government1......... ..................................... ..................................................
Total private________ ____ _____________ _____________________ _____
Agriculture.............................................................. .................... ..........
Nonagriculture.............................. ............ .............................................
Mining................. ...... .................. ..................................................
Construction....... ............ ................................. ............ .................
Manufacturing...................... ........................................... ................
Durable............................ .......... ................................... .........
Nondurable___ ____________ ____________________________
Transportation, communication, and public u tilities........................ .
Transportation___________________ ____ ____________ ____ _
Communication______ ___ ______ ___ ____ _________________
Public utilities____ __________________ _________ __________
Trade................................. ................. ........... ......... .....................
Wholesale trade........................ ................. .................... .........
Retail trade....................................... ................................... .
Finance, insurance, and real estate................. ......... ...................... .
Other services.................................. ................................ ...............
1 Government employment used in this table is based on the BLS concept to be
consistent with other employment data. It is different from the government employ
ment shown in table 1 because of inclusion of government enterprise employees as
well as other statistical and coverage differences.
2 Includes paid household employment.
3 Components may not add to totals because of rounding.
1968-72
1968-85
1968-80
1972-80
1980-85
1.6
4.2
1.2
- 3 .9
1.7
- 2 .0
.9
1.2
1.5
.8
.3
- .1
1.3
.8
1.8
1.9
1.8
2.6
3.1
1.4
2.9
1.2
- 2 .5
1.4
.2
1.9
- 1 .1
- 1 .6
-.4
1.1
-.2
3.9
2.1
2.6
2.1
2.7
3.7
2.4
1.7
2.8
1.5
- 4 .0
1.7
- .1
1.5
.9
1.1
.7
1.0
.8
1.7
1.0
1.8
1.6
1.8
2.8
2.6
1.9
2.9
1.7
- 4 .1
2.0
-.2
1.6
1.1
1.2
.9
1.4
1.0
2.3
1.2
2.2
2.0
2.3
3.1
2.9
2.2
2.8
2.0
- 4 .9
2.3
-.4
1.5
2.2
2.6
1.6
1.5
1.7
1.5
.8
2.1
2.0
2.1
2.8
3.1
1.2
2.5
.9
-3 .7
1.0
-.7
1.1
.5
.8
.1
.2
.1
.2
.5
.6
.7
.6
2.1
1.9
4 Compound interest rate between terminal years.
NOTE: Employment is on a jobs concept and includes wage and salary workers,
the self-employed and unpaid family workers. Persons holding more than one job are
counted in each job held.
employment is projected to increase by over 5 mil
lion jobs by 1985. By contrast,- growth in private
sector employment is expected to rise from slightly
over 1.2 percent a year during 1955-72 to about
2.0 percent a year during 1972-80, returning in
1980-85 close to the 1.0-percent pace.
Even though the rate of growth in manufacturing
employment is less than 1.0 percent a year, because
of the size of the sector nearly 3 million more jobs
are protected from the peak level reached in 1969
and over 4 million from the 1972 level. Despite this
increase, manufacturing’s share of employment is
projected to decline further. Retail trade is also
projected to add nearly 3 million jobs between
Chart 2. Percentage distribution of total employment
(counting jobs rather than workers) for selected years
and projected 1980 and 1985
Percent
100.0
Major sectors
Government
— Goods producing
Service producing
o
j
l h l h j h
1955
1972
1980
1985
NOTE: Government includes all Federal and State and
local civilian employees. Goods producing includes agri
culture, mining, construction, and manufacturing. Service
producing includes transportation, communications, pub
lic utilities, trade, finance, insurance, and real estate, and
other services.
1972-85. However, the big expansion in employ
ment is projected to continue to be in other services
—6 million—increasing its share to over 22 percent
of total employment.
Some implications
Potential GNP growth. Two aspects of the projec
tions concerning the overall GNP growth rate
should be emphasized. First, the 1968-80 projec
tions assume that all of the shortfall in productivity,
which occurred during 1968-72, and the less than
full utilization of the labor force in 1972 will be
made up by 1980. Therefore, one concern raised by
these projections is the ability to reach and to main
tain the full employment growth rate, particularly
over the 1972-80 period.
A second implication is the effect of the projected
dramatic slowing of the GNP growth rate during the
1980-85 period. Over most of the 1960’s and
1970’s the potential growth in the economy has
been or is expected to be 4 percent or more a year.
However, beginning in the late 1970’s and continu
ing through 1985 and beyond, the potential growth
rate in the economy will be about 3V6 percent a
year or less. This slowdown will affect the expected
rate of growth in business sales, capital expansion,
and other items closely related to the rate of eco
nomic growth in the economy. Thus, it will be
difficult for business to first expand facilities to meet
the increasing rate of expansion anticipated during
the mid-1970’s but not to overexpand in the late
1970’s and early 1980’s so that excess capacity will
be an added cost factor.
The projected slowdown in growth in gross
national product may not just produce problems but
could presage some benefits; such as diminution of
pollution which, even without treatment advances,
should not increase as rapidly in a slower paced
economy. Also, use of resources such as fuels, min
erals, or timber will slow as the economy slows and
thus lessen the rate of depletion.
A particularly important facet of the projections
is the growth in real per capita income. The
1968-80 projected growth calls for an appreciably
faster rate of increase over this period compared to
the 1955-72 rate. This general indicator of the
standard of living gives an unusually favorable out
look for the rest of the 1970’s, with the early 1980’s
returning to a rate of increase more like the late
1950’s and the 1960’s.
Growth in both exports and imports will continue
to make the United States more dependent on
changes in foreign countries. While the U.S. foreign
sector is still small compared with those of most
other countries, recent experience has made the
United States mindful of the ramifications of
changes in trading position among the industrial
countries. The necessity of meeting part of our
energy needs by imports from abroad may make the
United States even more concerned with trading
relationships around the world. Such imports will
put constant pressure on our balance of payments,
especially between 1972 and 1980.
Employment and related implications. These projec
tions follow or reinforce many earlier projections
developed by BLS and other research groups devel
oping employment projections. For example, the
continued decline projected for agriculture employ
ment implies an associated movement of people
from rural to urban areas. In some instances, this
will put further pressure on overutilized public facil
ities in urban areas, while at the same time making
maintenance of essential public services such as edu
cation and health care in sparsely settled rural areas
increasingly difficult because of the lack of a sup
portive tax base.
The continuing growth of State and local govern
ment employment presents another type of
challenge. For instance, labor-management relations
in this sector are in an early stage of development.
The problems of maintaining essential public serv
ices during strikes or “sick outs” present difficult
challenges to local governments. As the sector grows
in size, the potential for labor relations problems
will expand until stable bargaining procedures have
been established.2
0
As an increasing proportion of the work force
moves into the service sector, there will be a two
fold impact. First, since service employment is gen
erally more stable than employment in durable
goods manufacturing, employment will be less sensi
tive to abrupt swings up or down in economic activ
ity. At the same time, an economy with a high por
tion of its work force in services may have a higher
built-in rate of inflation because of the difficulty of
raising productivity in services. Thus, as wages
advance in services, the lower productivity there will
put increasing pressure on labor costs and prices.2
1
This was a major element considered in assuming a
higher rate of price increase in these projections
than had prevailed in the economy over time.
The 1980-85 slowdown in employment growth
does not present any greater difficulty for per
sons in the labor force, because the slowdown
results from fewer entrants into the labor force. Per
haps, one could even envision a more orderly
adjustment as the economy moves toward absorbing
only 1.2 million new job entrants in the 1980’s
compared with 2.0 million in the 1970’s. However,
the slowdown does cause some structural changes in
employment which could cause problems. Primary
among these is the slower growth projected in retail
trade. This sector has been a job source for many,
particularly women, seeking only part-time employ
ment. As this sector slows somewhat more than the
economy, job entrants may have to seek full-time
work in other sectors or not enter the labor force at
all if they are only interested in part-time work. Q
FOOTNOTES1 In these projections, 1968 is chosen as a reasonable
base year with full employment of resources and with pro
ductivity advances at or near their long-run potential. The
projections in this article replace or update those previously
prepared by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Further publi
cations are planned to provide more detail for the 1980
and 1985 projections as well as a detailed description of the
methodology used in developing them.
2 The 1968-80 growth in real GNP is slightly higher if
stated in 1963 or 1958 dollars— 4.08 and 4.10 percent,
respectively.
3 These projections are of the potential output of an
economy with fully employed resources, but the growth
rates shown cannot be considered potential since the base
year (1968) has not been adjusted to reflect deviation from
potential. In any estimate of potential growth, the increase
also should consider the probable expansion in the labor
force which may result from a lowering of the unemploy
ment rate. For a discussion of this, see Arthur M. Okun,
“Upward Mobility, in a High-Pressure Economy,” Brook
ings Papers on Economy Activity, 1973, pp. 207-61.
4 Because labor force growth is expected to be slower
at least through 1990, the 1985-90 rate of economic
growth will be at least as low as that projected for
1980-85, if not lower. See Denis F. Johnston, ‘The U.S.
labor force: projections to 1990,” Monthly Labor Review,
July 1973, pp. 3-13.
5 The employment used in these projections begins with
the labor force, a count of persons which is subsequently
converted to a count of jobs because of the availability of
greater industry detail needed in subsequent parts of the
projection.
GThe hours concept used is a measure of hours paid for
rather than hours worked. Therefore, the decline projected
might be more pronounced on an hours worked basis, par
ticularly if the trend toward more time paid for but not
worked continues into the future. A separate projection of
hours is not made for government, because in general there
has been no decline in government hours and the concept
of productivity used in government is on a per-person
basis.
7 The projections of government GNP, in real terms,
reflect only the change in employment. This is consistent
with the concept used in the national accounts of no
change in government productivity.
8 The tnacroeconometric model used in these projections
was developed originally by Lester C. Thurow and is
described in “A Fiscal Model of the United States,” Survey
of Current Business, June 1969, pp. 45-64.
9 Another category, not discussed in this article, is the
foreign transactions account. Also, in the usual GNP tabu
lation, government demand includes only the purchases of
goods and services. Other government components are
incorporated in other categories of demand. For example,
Federal grants to State and local governments are shown
as part of State and local purchases.
10 The projection of 1968-80 State and local government
expenditures may seem to imply an acceleration in their
rate of increase, but the difference lies in price change
since real State and local government purchases are pro
jected to slow down.
11 The overall GNP deflator is set by assumption but the
deflators for major demand components are developed
based on the work of Richard Barth. See “The Develop
ment of Wage and Price Relationships for a Long-Term
Econometric Model,” Survey of Current Business, August
1972, pp. 15-20.
12 Projections of overall consumption expenditures are
derived by using the macro model but the components are
not. They are sums of detailed projections developed for 80
categories.
13 See the Housing and Urban Development Act of 1968
and the Second Annual Housing Report, updated by subse
quent reports.
14 United States Energy through the Year 2000 (U.S.
Department of the Interior, December 1972).
15 In the demand system of GNP accounts, government
demand covers only its purchases of goods and services.
The difference between Federal purchases of goods and
services and expenditures is quite sizeable.
16 Even though the Interstate Highway Program is
largely federally financed, in the GNP demand accounts
shown here— which counts such expenditures at the point
of final purchase—State and local government are shown
as the purchasers of the Interstate Highway System.
17 These projections are based on the input-output table
for 1963 prepared by the Bureau of Economic Analysis,
U.S. Department of Commerce. See the Survey of Current
Business, November 1969. Summing output levels generated
by the input-output model is not considered meaningful
because of double counting of output. For this reason,
gross product originating is used, an alternative way of
viewing GNP. It is the value added (in real terms as used
here) in each industry.
18 Projections of productivity are made for private farm
and nonfarm and for government in the initial stages of
the projections. Later, industry output rates are calculated.
Employment by industry is derived by projecting output
per man hour and changes in annual hours by industry.
The projected rates of change in productivity for each
industry are aggregated to major sectors. Also, the output
data are converted to the gross-product-originating basis to
be consistent with the data discussed in the section on dis
tribution of output by sector.
19 In the job count concept of employment, anyone
having more than one job is counted as many times as he
or she hold jobs. To this count are added the self-em
ployed, and unpaid family workers, adding up to total
employment using a jobs concept. This differs from an
“employment of persons” concept, principally because of
dual jobholders. (See the chapter in this bulletin by Neal
Rosenthal, pp. 18-26). There are other statistical and sam
ple differences. For a discussion of these, see Gloria P.
Green, “Comparing employment estimates from the house
hold and payroll series,” Monthly Labor Review, December
1969, pp. 9-20.
20 For a discussion of some facets of this issue, see
“Exploring alternatives to the strike,” Monthly Labor
Review, September 1973, pp. 43-51.
21 This could be offset to some extent by the lower level
of wages in services since the shift in employment to these
sectors will, all else being equal, lower average wages in
the economy.
Appendix A.
Projection Methods
This appendix describes the methods used in de
veloping the 1980 and 1985 projections of economic
growth and employment by industry.
Supply GNP
The first projection needed is for supply GNP, or
a projection of the potential economic growth.1 The
potential economic growth refers to the potential
output of the economy given its available resources—
in particular, for this purpose, its human resources
or manpower.
Thus, the first element in developing a projection
of supply GNP is a projection of the labor force.2
The labor force projections are based on projections
of population and labor force participation rates by
age and sex. An unemployment rate is assumed—
4.0 percent in these projections—giving total em
ployed as a residual. Total employment is separated
into three components—government, farm, and non
farm. The employment concept used in these projec
tions is a count of jobs, converted from the labor
force count-of-persons concept, because job, or pay
roll, data, are available in greater industry detail
and this detail is needed in subsequent parts of the
projection.
Next in developing a projection of supply GNP
is a projection of average annual hours. The hours
concept used in these projections is “hours paid for”
rather than “hours worked.” A separate rate is
projected for the farm and private nonfarm sectors.
A separate projection of hours is not made for the
government because the concept of productivity used
in government is on a per person, rather than a
man-hours, basis.
The differing nature of productivity (or output per
man-hour) change in the three major sectors was
the primary consideration underlying the decision to
project their employment separately. Each of these
sectors has widely differing levels and rates of pro
ductivity growth. For example, using the conventions
with respect to government productivity followed in
the national income accounts and in these projections,
the government sector has no change in its produc
tivity. Therefore, projections of government GNP
in real terms reflect only the change in employment.
The projections for each of these factors—labor
force, unemployment rate, hours, and output per
man-hour—are combined to derive the potential, or
supply, GNP.
Macro model
After the potential GNP estimates for 1980 and
1985 are developed, they are used as inputs into a
macroeconomic model to derive a set of balanced
national income and product accounts.3 These data
include the income GNP (GNP measured at the
point of production, or the earnings of the factors
of production) and the components of income GNP
in current prices; demand GNP (GNP measured
when it is consumed) and the composition of demand
GNP in current prices and constant dollars; and
price deflators for GNP and the components of
GNP. The major use of the macroeconomic model,
at least as far as these projections are concerned, is
to derive the distribution of demand GNP (in con
stant dollars).
In developing the projections, the sequence used
by the macro model is for projected income to de
termine projected demand. The macro model is
structured so, that projected demand need not neces
sarily be equal to projected income, as it must in
the normal national income accounting. If such an
imbalance happens, policy variables (such as per
sonal or corporate taxes or government transfer pay
ments to persons) are changed and the model is
rerun until demand and income GNP do equal each
other. Initially, the projections of demand are made
in current dollars and the projected price deflators
are used to convert demand into real terms.
Conversion from demand into output
and employment
Following the development of demand GNP by
major component as described in the previous sec
tion, a projection of the composition of demand
GNP by producing industry is developed. Thus, for
each demand category such as personal consumption
expenditures, total projected consumption is dis
tributed into 134 separate industries representing
food, housing, automobiles, clothing, medical care,
legal services, drugs, or any of the other items on
which consumers spend their income. A similar dis
tribution is made for investment, exports, and for
Federal, State, and local government.
The translation of these detailed projections of
demand (referred to as input-output bill of goods)
into industry output is accomplished by use of an
input-output table. An input-output table is a matrix
in which each industry is represented twice—first,
showing its purchases from other sectors as inputs
used in producing its output, and second, showing the
distribution of its sales to all industries, including the
amount, if any, sold directly to one of the final
demand categories such as exports or investment.
The data from the input-output table are con
verted to a percent distribution of inputs called
coefficients; these coefficients are the focal point for
projections. An input-output table for any historical
year specifies the interrelationships among the ele
ments of the economy for that year. However, for
a later year these relationships may have changed
because of technology, changing relative prices, or
other factors, making it necessary to project the
coefficients, or input-output relationships, to 1980
and 1985 just as the detailed components of demand
by producing industry are projected. With the pro
jected input-output coefficients and the projected
demand, it is possible to derive a projected level of
output for each of the industries.4
Finally, by using projected rates of growth in in
dustry productivity or output per man-hour and
projected changes in annual hours, employment by
sector is derived. The sum of the projected employ
ment by industry must equal the total employment
used in developing the supply GNP. If it does not,
some or all of the projection sequence must be
redone.
-FOOTNOTES1 Although these projections are of the potential output
of the economy with fully employed resources, the growth
rates shown cannot be considered potential since the base
period— 1968—has not been adjusted to reflect deviation
from full potential in employment, hours, or productivity.
Also, any estimate of potential growth should consider the
probable expansion in the labor force which may result
from a lowering of the unemployment rate.
2 See Denis F. Johnston, “U.S. Labor Force: Projections
to 1990,” Monthly Labor Review, July 1973, pp. 3-13.
3 The macroeconometric model was developed by Lester
C. Thurow and is described in the June 1969 issue of the
Survey of Current Business. See “A Fiscal Model of the
United States,” Survey of Current Business, June 1969, pp.
45-64.
4The input-output bill of goods by demand component
for selected historical years and projected for 1980 and
1985, projected input-output coefficient tables for 1980 and
for 1985, and industry output and employment for each of
134 sectors will be shown in subsequent publications.
Appendix B. Comparison of
New and Earlier 1980 Projections
This appendix provides comparisons of new 1980
projections with the projections for 1980 previously
published in The U.S. Economy in 1980: A Sum
mary of BLS Projections, Bulletin 1673.1 Projections
compared include (1) the 1968-80 rate of change
in gross national product (in constant prices); (2)
distribution of gross national product among major
components of demand; (3) distribution of employ
ment among major industry sectors; and (4) distri
bution of occupations by major categories.
GNP growth rate
A major interest in the projections lies in the
estimate of the growth rate in GNP over the long
term. In the earlier projections, two rates of growth
in real GNP for the 1968-80 period were given,
based on alternative assumptions regarding unem
ployment rates, 3 percent and 4 percent. The earlier
estimate consistent with the 4-percent unemployment
assumption used in the revised projections showed a
growth rate of 4.2 percent a year. Further, the esti
mate was based on GNP figures stated in 1968
prices. The revised projection of GNP is in 1972
prices. The adjustment of the earlier projections from
1968 to 1972 prices—to be comparable to the cur
rent projection—lowers the previously estimated
growth rate to 4.1 percent. The reduction is due to
the greater weight of the government “product” when
stated in 1972 rather than 1968 prices. Giving great
weight to the government sector, which by national
income accounting conventions has no increase in
productivity over time, results in lowering the previ
ously published growth rate.
The revised projections for 1980 indicate a some
what smaller growth rate during 1968-80, 4.0 per
cent rather than the previous estimate of 4.1 percent.
The slight decline reflects largely offsetting changes
in the factors affecting the growth rate in gross na
tional product. The comparison of the rates of
changes in these factors, based on the earlier and
current set of projections, is given in table B -l.
Table B-1 . Comparison of projections of rates of change
of gross national product and underlying factors, 1968-80
Average annual rate of
change, 1968-80
Item
Revised 1
E a rlie r2
Total GNP (1972 dollars)____________________________
Government________________________________
Private ___________ _______________ _____ -
4.0
1.3
4.3
4.1
1.8
4.4
Total labor force (including military)---------------------------Employed (persons concept)__________ ___________
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.7
Employed (jobs concept)__________________________ Government________________________________
P riv a te __ ________________ _______ ___ ___ -
1.7
1.6
1.7
1.5
2.0
1.4
- 0 .3
1.4
2.9
- 0 .1
1.4
3.0
Average annual man-hours— p r i v a t e . ----------------------Total man-hours— private____ ___________________ GNP per man-hour— private... __ _____ ___
_____
1 See ch. 3 of this bulletin, p. 28, table 1.
2 See The U.S. Economy in 1980: A Summary of BLS Projections, Bulletin 1673
(Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1970), p. 42, table A-6. The “ earlier" 1980 projections
are those based on the 4-percent unemployment, service-economy alternative, in
1968 dollars.
Distribution of demand
A comparison of the revised and earlier projec
tions of the distribution of 1980 gross national
product among major components of demand is
shown in table B-2. Personal consumption expendi
tures in the current projections represent a some
what higher proportion of GNP than previously,
implicitly reflecting the impact on personal income
and resulting consumption expenditures of substan
tial increases in transfer payments compared with
the previous set of projections. Within consumption,
the current projections have relatively higher durable
goods purchases, particularly for mobile homes and
campers. Nondurable goods are also a higher pro
portion of GNP in the current projections because
of higher purchases of gasoline and pharmaceutical
preparations and related medical items, toiletries,
and so forth. Services are projected as a lower pro
portion of demand in this set of projections because
the increases over the last few years for a wide
range of services have been lower than expected.
Table B -2 . Comparison of projections of distribution of
GN P among major components of demand for 1980
B illio ns of
1972 dollars
Percent
distribution
Major component
Revised 1 E a rlie r2 Revised E a rlie r
Per
cent
change3
Gross national product____________
1,657.9
1,676.6
100.0
100.0
Personal consumption
expenditures______________
Durable goods____ _ _
Nondurable goods________
Services_____________ . . .
1,032.0
165.4
408.7
457.9
1,035.1
147.3
393.5
494.3
62.2
10.0
24.7
27.6
61.7
8.8
23.5
29.5
0.8
13.6
5.1
- 6 .4
266.1
250.9
192.0
68.0
262.9
243.6
181.0
65.0
16.1
15.1
11.6
4.1
15.7
14.5
10.8
3.9
2.5
4.1
7.4
5.1
123.9
58.9
116.0
62.6
7.5
3.6
6.9
3.7
8.7
- 2 .7
15.3
19.4
0.9
1.2
-2 5 .0
Net exports of goods and
services____________ ____ _
Exports_________________
Imports_________________
3.8
133.6
129.8
9.9
101.0
91.1
0.2
8.1
7.8
0.6
6.0
5.4
-6 6 .7
35.0
42.6
Government purchases of goods
and services______________
Federal.__ . __________
State and local___________
356.1
126.4
229.6
368.7
143.0
225.7
21.5
7.6
13.8
Gross private domestic
investment________________
Fixed investment_________
Nonresidential_______
Structures_______
Producers’ durable
equipment_____
Residential structures...
Change in business
inventories
_________
- 2 .3
22.0
8.5 -1 0 .6
2.2
13.5
1 See ch. 3 of this bulletin, p. 34, table 5.
2 See The U.S. Economy in 1980: A Summary of BLS Projections, Bulletin 1673
(Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1970), p. 6, table 1, converted to 1972 dollars. The "earlier”
1980 projections are those based on the 4-percent unemployment, services-economy
alternative.
3 Revised—earlier
------------------- x 100
Earlier
For gross private domestic investment, the major
change in this set of projections is the larger share
for producer durable goods. This expansion mostly
reflects larger investment needs because of pollution
abatement efforts. Both exports and imports have
been increased sharply (with the net export estimate
lowered somewhat), both changes reflecting experi
ence of the last few years.
Projections of government expenditures in the cur
rent set of projections are sharply lower for the Fed
eral component. The lower Federal estimate reflects
the reduced manpower requirements of an all
volunteer Armed Forces accompanied by an assump
tion that defense purchases in real terms will not
expand at high rates over the 1972-80 period. In
addition, in the current set of projections, nonde
fense Federal expenditures have been lowered be
cause space expenditures are not expected to expand
much in the future.
Distribution of employment
The distribution of employment in the current set
of projections is somewhat different from that in
the earlier set. (See table B-3.) First, government
represents a smaller proportion of total employment
than in the previous projections, principally because
of lower Federal employment. In the private sector,
agricultural employment is projected to be lower as
declines are expected to continue in this sector.
Although in 1972 and 1973 agricultural employ
ment did not decline, the projections are based on
the belief that this is a short-run phenomenon and
that the decline will continue after a few years of
adjustment to higher production levels. Higher
projected employment in mining arises from an ex
pectation of more jobs in coal mining than previ
ously, as a result of increased use of coal along with
smaller increases in labor productivity. The rise in
employment in coal mining is expected to continue
at least through 1980.
The lower employment in construction reflects,
among other factors, lower public construction; high
way construction is not expected to show much
growth and other construction is not expected to
take up the slack. The current set of projections has
higher employment in the transportation, communi
cations, and public utilities categories because the
experience of recent years indicates a higher rate of
Table B-3. Comparison of projections of sector employ
ment for 1980
In thousands
Percent
distribution
Sector
Revised1 Earl ier2
Total (jobs concept)________
Government___________ ____
Total private____________
Agriculture______________
Nonagriculture___________
Mining______________
Construction_________
Manufacturing_____ __
Durable goods____
Nondurable goods..
Transportation, com
munications, and
public u tilitie s .____
Trade______________
Finance, insurance,
and real estate_____
Other services_______
Re
vised
Percent
change
Ear
lier
101,576
98,600
100.0
100.0
16,610
84,966
2,300
82,666
655
4,908
22,923
13,629
9,294
16,632
81,968
3,156
78,812
584
5,427
22,133
13,141
8,992
16.4
83.6
2.3
81.4
0.6
4.8
22.6
13.4
9.2
16.9
83.1
3.2
79.9
0.6
5.5
22.4
13.3
9.1
- 3 .0
0.6
-2 8 .0
1.9
0.0
-1 2 .7
0.9
0.8
1.1
5,321
21,695
4,926
20,282
5.2
21.4
5.0
20.6
4.0
3.8
5,349
21,815
4,598
20,862
5.3
21.5
4.7
21.2
12.8
1.4
1 See ch. 3 of this bulletin, p. 39, table 9.
2 See Patterns of U.S. Economic Growth, Bulletin 1672 (Bureau of Labor Statis
tics, 1970), p. 37, table 26 (4-percent basic model).
3 See footnote 3, table B-2.
growth of output in these sectors, and a smaller
increase in productivity, than previously projected.
This results in larger employment increases. Recent
experience is considered to be indicative of the
longer-run trend rather than a short-term develop
ment. The relative increases in employment in
wholesale and retail trade and in finance, insurance,
and real estate reflect the strong growth that each
of these categories has experienced over the past few
years; these gains are expected to continue until
1980. In addition, the relative increase in trade em
ployment reflects the increased proportion of per
sonal consumption expenditures for goods compared
with services.
Occupational distribution
Among the major occupational groups, the greatest
proportional differences between the original and
revised 1980 projections are in the two smallest
Table B-4. Comparison off projections off occupational
requirements for 1980
In m illions
Percent distribution
Percent
change3
Occupational
groups
R evised1 E a rlie r2 Revised
Total employment (persons
concept)------ ---------------
Earlier
_
95.8
95.1
100.0
100.0
White-collar workers______
Professional and technical
workers___________
Managers and admin
istrators..................
Salesworkers__________
Clerical workers...... ........
49.3
48.0
51.5
50.5
2.0
15.0
15.3
15.7
16.1
- 2 .5
10.1
6.3
17.9
9.7
6.0
17.0
10.5
6.6
18.7
10.2
6.3
17.9
2.9
4.8
4.5
Blue-collar workers_______
Craft workers__________
Operatives................... .
Nonfarm laborers_______
31.8
12.3
15.0
4.5
30.7
12.2
14.6
3.9
33.1
12.8
15.6
4.7
32.3
12.8
15.4
4.1
2.5
0.0
1.3
14.7
Service workers..................
12.7
13.8
13.3
14.5
- 8 .3
Farm workers............. ........
2.0
2.6
2.1
2.7
-2 2 .3
1 See ch. 2 of this bulletin, p. 19, table 1.
2 See The U.S. Economy in 1980: A Summary of BLS Projections, Bulletin 1673
(Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1970), table A-24. Published data were on a 1960 Census
base and have been adjusted to reflect 1970 Census occupational definitions.
9 See footnote 3, table B-2.
groups, nonfarm laborers and farm workers. (See
table B-4.) The number of farm workers was low
ered 23 percent from the original projection. This
parallels the projection of a continued reduction of
employment in the sector. The 15-percent difference
for nonfarm laborers reflects analysis of data that
have become available since the original projections
were developed. The more current data show that
the slow decline in employment originally projected
for this group as a result of increased substitution
of machinery for unskilled labor did not take place
in the early 1970’s—in fact, a slow increase was
experienced. This trend has been projected to 1980
in the revised projections. As a percent of total em
ployment, however, nonfarm laborers are projected
to decline as in the original projections.
The greatest absolute decline between the original
and revised projections of employment is in the
service worker group. This decline results primarily
from a change in the direction of the projection for
private household workers, who make up a signifi
cant proportion of the service group (13 percent in
1972). The original projection indicated a rise in
employment for private household workers, along
with an increase in demand stemming from rising
family income and increased labor force participa
tion of women. An increase in employment, however,
has not taken place in recent years as individuals
chose not to work as private household workers when
other jobs were available. The revised projections
for private household works reflect a continuation
of the declining trend in employment.
The remainder of the differences between the
original 1970 and revised 1980 occupational projec
tions stem primarily from changes in projections of
industry employment rather than changes in the
projected occupational structure of the industries.
--------- FOOTNOTE--------1 See also footnote 1 to the introductory chapter of this
bulletin, p. 7.
Appendix C
Detailed Tables
C -l.
C-2.
Growth in domestic output by industry, actual and projected, selected
periods, 1959-85
C-3.
Civilian employment by industry, 1959, 1968, 1972, and projected for
1980 and 1985
C-4.
Nonagricultural employment of wage and salary workers, by industry,
1959, 1968, 1972, and projected for 1980 and 1985
C-5.
Table 0 -1 .
Estimated 1972 employment and projected 1985 requirements, by occu
pation
Relationship of industries in the 1970 interindustry employment matrix
to industries in the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system
Estimated 1972 employment and projected 1985 requirements, by occupation
Occupation
Estimated
employ
ment,
1972
Projected
Per
Annual
cent
rate of
require
ments,
change, change,
1985
1972-85 1972-85
PROFESSIONAL AND RELATED
OCCUPATIONS
Business, administrative occupations:
Accountants... ______ . . .
714,000
935,000
31.0
2.1
Clergy:
_ _
Protestant ministers ___
.
Rabbis
. ___
Roman Catholic priests
____
325,000
5,800
58,500
360,000
6,400
63,000
10.9
10.9
7.9
0.8
0.8
0.6
Conservation occupations:
Foresters____
.. ______
Forestry aides.
__
__
Range managers______________
22,000
14,500
4,000
28,000
21,500
4,500
26.0
48.3
12.5
1.8
3.1
0.9
Counseling occupations:
Employment counselors________
Rehabilitation counselors______
School counselors___________
8,500
16,000
43,000
14,000
26,000
59,000
66.2
59.8
36.9
4.0
3.7
2.4
Engineers____________ _________
Aerospace engineers__________
Agricultural engineers........... .
Biomedical engineers_________
Ceramic engineers____________
Chemical engineers___________
Civil engineers
____________
Electrical engineers__ _________
Industrial engineers___________
Mechanical engineers......... ........
Metallurgical engineers_______
Mining engineers__________
1,100,000
62,000
12,000
3,000
10,000
47,000
177,000
231,000
125,000
209,000
10,000
4,000
1,500,000
75,000
15,000
5,000
14,000
59,000
235,000
330,000
190,000
280,000
14,000
4,000
41.5
22.0
29.1
40.6
41.7
25.4
33.8
44.1
53.5
33.5
41.7
4.7
2.7
1.5
2.0
2.7
2.8
1.8
2.3
2.9
3.4
2.2
2.7
0.4
Health service occupations:
Chiropractors____________ _____
Dental assistants... _____________
Dental laboratory technicians.........
16,000
115,000
32,000
19,500
155,000
43,000
20.9
35.0
34.8
1.5
2.3
2.3
Occupation
Dental hygienists_______ ______ __
Dentists________________________
Dietitians____ _______________ _
Electrocardiographic technicians____
Electroencephalograph^ technicians...
H ospital a d m in is tra to rs
._ ___
Licensed practical nurses..
____
Medical assistants
. . . . . . ______
Medical laboratory workers___ _ . . .
Medical record librarians__________
Occupational therapists______
Occupational therapy assistants_____
Optometrists____ _
Optometric a s sista n ts ..._____. . .
Podiatrists___ _______ _
_____
Pharmacists_____________________
Physical therapists___ _________
Physical therapy assistants.
_ ___
Physicians (M.D.'s and D.O.'s)
Respiratory therapists_____
__
Veterinarians____________________
Radiologic technologists___
Registered nurses________
S a n ita ria n s..____
__ __ _ . . .
Speech pathologists and audiologists..
Mathematics and related occupations:
Actuaries______________
Mathematicians________
Statisticians. _________________
Natural science occupations:
Geologists___________ ______ ____
Geophysicists___________ ________
Meteorologists___________________
Ocea nographers.......................... .
Biochemists________ ____________
Life scientists____________ _______
Estimated
employ
ment,
1972
Projected
Per
Annual
require
cent
rate of
ments,
change, change,
1985
1972-85 1972-85
17,000
105,000
33,000
10,000
3,500
17,000
425,000
200,000
165,000
47,000
7,500
6,000
18,700
11,000
7,300
131,000
18,000
10,500
330,000
17,000
26,000
55,000
748,000
17,000
27,000
50,000
140,000
44,000
15,000
5,500
26,600
835,000
320,000
210,000
118,000
15,000
15,500
23,300
20,000
8,400
163,000
32,000
25,000
485,000
30,000
37,000
87,000
1,050,000
30,000
34,000
191.0
32.0
32.0
50.0
57.1
56.4
96.0
45.5
27.3
152.0
100.0
160.9
24.7
78.8
15.0
24.5
76.3
141.7
47.2
77.0
41.1
58.0
40.0
76.8
26.9
8.6
2.2
2.2
3.2
3.5
3.5
5.3
2.9
1.9
7.4
5.5
7.7
1.7
4.6
1.1
1.7
4.5
7.0
3.0
4.5
5,500
76,000
23,000
9,000
107,000
32,000
62.0
40.8
39.6
3.8
2.7
2*6
23,000
8,000
5,000
4,500
12,500
180,000
32,000
11,000
6,000
6,300
18,000
235,000
37.5
38.3
29.2
33.0
43.0
29.1
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.2
2.8
2.0
1 .1
3.6
2.6
4.5
1.8
Occupation
Estimated
employ
ment,
1972
Projected
Per
Annual
cent
require
rate of
ments,
change, change,
1985
1972-85 1972-85
Physical scientists:
Astronomers___________ ____ ____
Chemists_______________________
Food scientists___________________
Physicists.........................................
2,000
134,000
7,500
49,000
2,300
184,000
9,500
61,000
14.9
38 0
29 7
24 1
1.1
2 5
2 0
1.7
Performing artists:
Actors and actresses______________
Dancers________________________
Musicians and music teachers______
Singers and singing teachers_______
10,000
5,000
85,000
36,000
15,300
6,100
111,000
49’ 500
53 0
22 0
30 6
37.5
3 3
1 5
2 1
2.5
Social scientists:
Anthropologists____ ____ _______ __
Economists.._____________ ____ _
Geographers____________________
Historians______________________
Political scientists______ _____ ____
Sociologists_________________ .
3,600
36,000
7,500
24,000
10,000
15,000
6,000
46,000
9,200
30,000
12,200
23,000
66.4
29 5
22.6
25.3
22.0
53 1
4.0
2 0
1.6
1.7
1.5
3.3
Teachers:
College and university teachers_____
Kindergarten and elementary school
teachers_____________________
Secondary school teachers_________
525,000
630,000
20 4
14
1,274,000
1,023,000
1,590,000
1,045,000
24.9
2 1
1.7
0.1
Technicians:
Draftsmen______________________
Engineering and science technicians..
Food processing technicians...........
327,000
707,000
4,500
485,000
1,050,000
5,500
48.0
48.9
24.0
3.1
3.1
1.7
Writing occupations:
Newspaper reporters ____________
Technical writers
_ ______
Other professional and related occupations:
___
Airline dispatchers
Air traffic controllers
_ _
Architects __
_ _____________
Broadcast technicians________ ____
College career planning and place
ment counselors
_ __ _
_ _
Commercial artists
Flight engineers__________________
Ground radio operators, and tele
typists (civil aviation)___________
Home economists________________
Industrial designers______________
Interior designers and decorators___
Landscape architects______________
Lawyers. __________ ____ _______
Librarians
Photographers___________________
Pilots and copilots_________ _
Programmers _______ _
Psychologists
Radio and television announcers
Recreation workers
S o c ia l w o r k e r s
Surveyors______________________
Systems analysts
Underwriters ..
Urban planners
__ _ _
39,000
20,000
50,000
26,000
28 0
29.9
1 9
2.0
800
19,500
37,000
23,000
800
26,000
65,000
26,000
0.0
33.8
76.0
12.0
0.0
2.3
4.4
0.9
3,800
60,000
7,000
5,000
76,000
9,500
32.5
26.7
35.7
2.2
1.8
2.4
5,700
120,000
10,000
18,000
12,000
303,000
120,000
77,000
54,000
186,000
57,000
21,000
55,000
185,000
58,000
103,000
61,000
12,000
5,000
140,000
14,000
23,000
21,000
380,000
162,000
88,000
78,000
290,000
' 90,000
24,500
90,000
275,000
81,000
185,000
71,000
18,500
-1 3 .0
14.0
40.0
29.0
75.8
25.8
35.0
14.3
43.8
55.9
55.5
21.4
63.0
48.6
40.0
79.6
16.6
54.2
- 1 .2
1.0
2.6
2.0
4.1
1.8
2.3
1.0
2.8
3.5
3.5
1.5
3.8
3.1
2*6
4.6
1.2
3.4
MANAGERIAL OCCUPATIONS
Bank officers_______ _______________
City managers_______________________
Conductors (railroad) . .
....... ...
Licensed merchant marine officers.........__
Managers and assistants (hotel)________
219,000
2,500
38,000
15,000
110,000
308,000
3,700
33,000
14,000
160,000
40.0
54.0
-1 2 .6
- 9 .8
41.2
2.6
3.4
- 1 .1
- 0 .8
2.7
CLERICAL AND RELATED
OCCUPATIONS
Bank clerks________________________
Bank tellers------ -----------------------------Bookkeeping workers________ ____ ___
Cashiers................................. ................
Claim adjusters...................... ...............
473,000
248,000
1,584,000
998,000
128,000
665,000
350,000
1,900,000
1,360,000
152,000
40.4
40.4
19.5
36.1
19.0
2.6
2.6
1.4
2.4
1.3
Occupation
Estimated
employ
ment,
1972
Claim examiners_____ _______________
31,000
Electronic computer operating personnel-..
480,000
File clerks..___________ ____________
272,000
Front office clerks (hotel)... _ _
49,000
Office machine operators____ _____ _
195,000
Receptionists______ . . . . . . ____ _____
436,000
Shipping and receiving clerks__________
451,000
Station agents (railroad)_______ ______
8,700
Stenographers and secretaries___
3,074,000
Stock clerks___ ______ ___
511,000
Telegraphers, telephoners, and towermen
(railroad)------------------------------------11,200
Telephone operators__________________
230,000
Traffic agents and clerks (civil aviation)...
59,000
Typists. ____________ ___
1,021,000
Projected
Per
Annual
cent
rate of
require
ments,
change, change,
1985
1972-85 1972-85
28,500
531,000
318,000
69,000
230,000
650,000
490,000
6,500
4,950,000
750,000
- 7 .8
10.6
16.7
41.2
17.9
50.0
9.1
-2 5 .2
60.8
46.2
- 0 .7
0.8
1.2
2.7
1.3
3.2
0.7
- 2 .3
3.7
3.0
7,500
232,000
110,000
1,400,000
—33.2
1.5
88.7
38.7
- 3 .3
0.4
5.0
2.5
72,000
131,000
21,000
385,000
423,000
349,000
2,778,000
220,000
688,000
95,000
148,000
28,000
450,000
545,000
435,000
3,330,000
290,000
860,000
32.0
13.0
32.6
16.7
28.9
25.4
20.0
28.0
25.2
2.2
0.9
2.2
1.2
2.0
1.6
1.4
1.9
1.7
157,000
200,000
16,000
1,885,000
866,000
500,000
200,000
39,000
250,000
900,000
17,000
370,000
1,437,000
100,000
44,000
1,124,000
147,000
235,000
18,000
2,430,000
1,000,000
670,000
315,000
76,000
320,000
1,360,000
24,000
490,000
1,000,000
150,000
66,000
1,300,000
- 6 .4
16.8
13.0
29.0
14.2
35.0
57.2
92.4
29.3
51.0
41.2
32.3
—30.8
50.0
50.8
16.6
- 0 .6
1.2
0.9
30,000
180,000
1,000,000
40,000
225,000
1,200,000
33.3
25.0
14.8
2 .2
75,000
240,000
17,000
75,000
12,000
30,000
110,000
325,000
25,000
100,000
18,000
40,000
46.7
35.4
47.1
33.3
50.0
33.3
3.0
2.4
3.1
435,000
420,000
30,000
400,000
80,000
65,000
570,000
460,000
32,000
500,000
110,000
80,000
31.0
9.5
6.6
25.0
37.5
23.1
95,000
120,000
26.3
Machine occupations:
All-round machinists.......................
Instrument makers, mechanical___
Machine tool operators___________
Set up men (machine tools).............
Tool and die m akers......................
320,000
5,000
546,000
43,000
172,000
400,000
6,000
670,000
59,000
183,000
24.8
20.0
22.9
37.2
6.4
0 .5
Mechanics and repairers:
Airconditioning, refrigeration, and
heating mechanics.......................
135,000
2 6 5 ,0 0 0
96.3
5.3
SALES OCCUPATIONS
Automobile parts countermen....... ...........
Automobile salesworkers__________ ___
Automobile service advisors___________
Insurance agents and brokers__________
Manufacturers' salesworkers__________
Real estate salesworkers and brokers____
Retail trade salesworkers... __________
Securities salesworkers____ _____ _____
Wholesale trade salesworkers__________
SERVICE OCCUPATIONS
Barbers______________ _____ _______
Bartenders------ -------------------------------Bellmen and bell captains (hotel)...____
Building custodians.......... ............. ....
Cooks and chefs____ ______________ _
Cosmetologists______________________
Firefighters------------------- -------------Flight attendants_______________ ____
Guards.
____________ _______ . .
Hospital attendants____________ ______
Housekeepers and assistants (hotel)_____
Police officers (municipal).............. ..........
Private household workers______ ______
Social service aides.......... ........... .........
State police officers_________ _________
Waiters and waitresses___________ ____
2 .0
1.0
2.3
3.5
5.2
2.0
3.2
2.7
2 2
-3 .0
3.2
3.2
1.2
CRAFT and KINDRED WORKERS
Building trades:
Asbestos and insulating workers___
Bricklayers,___________________
Carpenters_________________ . . .
Cement masons (cement and con
crete finishers)______ _________
Electricians (construction)______
Elevator constructors.......................
Floor covering installers__________
Glaziers_______ _______________
Lathers......... ................................
Operating engineers (construction
machinery operators)__________
Painters and paperhangers..............
Plasterers____ . . . _____________
Plumbers and pipefitters_________
R oofers...____________________
Sheet metal workers_____________
Structural-, ornamental-, and rein
forcing-iron workers, riggers, and
machine movers___ _____ _____
1.7
1.1
2 .2
3.2
2 .2
2 .0
0 .7
0 .4
1.7
2 .5
1.6
1.8
1 .7
1.4
1.6
2 .5
Occupation
Aircraft mechanics_____ _________
Appliance servicemen........ ........... .
Automotive body repairers...............
Automobile mechanics___________
Bowling-pin-machine mechanics.......
Business machine servicemen........
Diesel mechanics______ _________
Electric sign servicemen__________
Farm equipment mechanics_______
Industrial machinery repairers_____
Instrument repairers_____________
Jewelers and jewelry repairers..___
Maintenance electricians........... ......
Millwrights_____ _____ __________
Motorcycle mechanics_____ ______
Television and radio service
technicians.................................
Truck and bus mechanics......... ......
Vending machine mechanics______
Watch repairers_________________
Printing (graphic arts) occupations:
Bookbinders and related workers___
Composing room occupations.........
Electrotypers and stenotypers_____
Lithographic occupations................
Photoengravers_________________
Printing press operators and
assistants____________________
Telephone industry occupations:
Central office craftworkers________
Central office equipment installers__
Linemen and cable splicers...........
Telephone and PBX installers and
repairers....... ........ ....................
Estimated
employ
ment,
1972
Projected
Per
Annual
require
cent
rate of
ments,
change, change,
1985
1972-85 1972-85
123,000
130,000
161,000
727,000
6,000
69,000
92,000
8,000
47,000
430,000
100,000
18,000
260,000
83,000
9,600
190,000
175,000
187,000
860,000
6,600
97,000
125,000
11,700
52,000
850,000
140,000
19,000
325,000
103,000
19,000
53.0
35.0
16.1
18.4
10.8
41.2
36.8
46.3
10.6
98.6
38.5
4.0
25.0
24.3
97.9
3.3
2.3
1.1
1.3
0.8
2.7
2.4
3.0
0.8
5.4
2.5
0.4
1.7
1.7
5.4
144,000
130,000
29,000
16,000
170,000
165,000
39,000
17,000
18.1
27.5
32.5
4.0
1.3
1.8
2.2
0.3
32,000
170,000
7,000
81,000
16,000
38,000
166,000
6,000
120,000
15,000
17.3
- 2 .3
-1 4 .8
48.4
- 9 .2
1.2
- 0 .2
- 1 .3
3.1
- 0 .8
142,000
183,000
28.6
2.0
105,000
30,000
50,000
119,000
35,000
54,000
11.3
18.6
10.7
0.8
1.4
0.8
108,000
Other craft occupations:
Blacksmiths___________ ____ ___
10,000
Boilermaking occupations............... .
33,000
Coremakers (foundry)___ ________
23,000
Dispensing opticians and optical
mechanics___________________
30,000
Blue-collar worker supervisors_____ 1,400,000
Furniture upholsterers.__________
35,000
Locomotive engineers____________
35,000
120,000
11.1
0.8
9,400
39,000
23,000
- 6 .4
18.6
1.5
- 0 .6
1.4
46,000
1,700,000
39,000
33,500
52.0
21.6
12.6
- 4 .8
3.3
1.5
0.9
- 0 .4
NOTE: Rates of change calculated from unrounded data.
0.1
Occupation
Locomotive firemen (helpers)______
Molders (foundry)_______________
Motion picture projectionists______
Patternmakers (foundry)_________
Shoe repairers__________________
Shop trades (railroad)___________
Stationary engineers_____________
Estimated
employ
ment,
1972
Projected
Per
Annual
require
cent
rate of
ments,
change, change,
1985
1972-85 1972-85
14,900
56,000
16,000
19,000
30,000
78,000
178,000
9,000
57,000
19,000
19,000
26,000
67,000
178,000
-3 8 .4
1.5
15.3
1.5
—13.0
-1 4 .2
- 3 .9
0.0
0.0
25,000
68,000
1,600,000
190,000
92,000
570,000
24,500
71,500
1,800,000
200,000
85,000
670,000
- 2 .1
5.0
17.6
4.7
- 7 .6
17.6
- 0 .2
0,4
1.3
0.3
- 0 .7
1.3
1,017,000
25,000
1,100,000
29,000
7.2
16.1
0.5
1.1
73,000
17,000
435,000
725,000
200,000
33,000
180,000
38,000
300,000
64,000
21,000
545,000
940,000
198,000
38,000
197,000
52,000
370,000
-1 2 .5
24.0
25.2
29.7
- 1 .4
14.0
9.4
36.4
22.2
- 1 .1
1.5
1.8
2.0
0.1
1.1
0.1
- 1 .2
- 1 .2
OPERATIVES
Driving occupations:
Intercity busdrivers______________
Local-transit busdrivers__________
Local truckdrivers_______________
Route workers__________________
Taxi drivers____ _______________
Truckdrivers, over-the roa d______
Other operative occupations:
Assemblers____________________
Automobile painters_____________
Brake operators and couplers
(railroad)____________________
Electroplaters__________________
Gasoline service station attendants..
Inspectors (manufacturing)_______
Meatcutters______ _____ ________
Parking attendants______________
Production painters______________
Photographic laboratory occupations.
Power truck operators___________
Signal department workers
(railroad)____________________
Furnace tenders and stokers,
except metal_________________
Unlicensed merchant seamen______
Waste water treatment plant
operators____________________
Welders and oxygen and arc cutters..
-
0.1
1.0
0.7
2.4
1.5
11,200
9,500
-1 4 .9
- 1 .3
93,000
42,000
88,000
35,000
- 5 .0
-1 6 .7
- 0 .4
- 1 .5
20,000
554,000
31,000
770,000
54.0
39.0
3.4
2.6
10,500
54,000
876,000
9,900
47,000
1,000,000
- 5 .6
-1 3 .0
14.2
- 0 .5
- 1 .1
LABO R ER S(N O N FARM )
Bridge and building workers (railroad)...
Track workers (railroad)_____________
Construction laborers and hod carriers...
1.0
Table C -2 .
Growth in domestic output by industry, actual and projected, selected periods, 1959-85
[Average annual percent change at producers' value in 1963 dollars]
Industry matrix number and title
1
1959-68
1968-80
1980-85
Industry matrix number and title
1959-68
1968-80
1980-85
Livestock and livestock products____ _______
Crops and other agricultural products_______
Forestry and fisheries____________________
Agriculture, forestry, and fishery services____
Iron ore mining_________________________
1.4
2.1
0.5
3.5
5.2
2.9
2.9
3.4
2.8
3.8
1.0
1.6
1.6
2.3
3.1
66
67
68
69
70
Material handling equipment
Metal working machinery
Special industry machinery
General industrial machinery______________
Machine shop products
6.6
5.5
5.0
4.6
6.5
5.3
3.7
3.4
5.2
3.9
5.1
3 1
2.0
4.3
3.4
Copper ore mining____ ________ __________
Other nonferrous metal ore mining_________
Coal mining____________________________
Crude petroleum________________________
Stone and clay mining and quarrying_______
4 3
1.4
2.4
3.6
3.0
6.2
5.5
2.3
0.9
4.1
2 6
6 5
5 8
- 0 .2
3.0
71
72
73
74
12.0
6.8
9^3
11.0
7.0
8*5
6.4
4.6
4*4
75
Computers and peripheral equipment
Typewriters and other office machines
Service industry machines
Electric transmission and distribution equip
ment_____________________
________
Electric industrial apparatus_______________
4.8
5.9
5.8
5.0
4.6
4.0
13
14
15
Chemical and fertilizer mining.......................
New residential buildings__________ _____ _
New nonresidential buildings_____________
New public utilities______________________
New streets and highways________________
6.2
0.6
5.6
6.3
3.1
6.3
3.7
3.5
6.4
0.1
3.7
3.6
3 4
3 3
1.4
76
77
78
79
80
Household appliances
__
Electric lighting and wiring
_____
Radio and TV receiving sets
Telephone and telegraph apparatus
______
Radio and TV industrial equipment_________
6.5
4.5
11.8
9.3
12.1
4.2
6.0
3.5
8.5
3.3
4.0
5.2
3.9
5.7
4.2
16
17
18
19
20
A ll other new construction______ ______ ___
Maintenance and repair construction________
Guided missiles and space vehicles________
Other ordnance_____ ____________________
Food products_________ _______________
- 1 .4
1.3
6.2
12.9
2.8
2.2
1.5
- 0 .2
- 4 .5
2.7
3.8
1.1
3 8
3.3
2.0
81
82
83
84
85
Electronic components_____ __
_______
Miscellaneous electrical machinery
_______
Motor vehicles____________ ____ _________
Aircraft______________________________ _
Ship and boatbuilding and repair___________
12.7
5.6
6.7
4.1
4.0
6.9
5.2
4.2
1 7
6.9
5.8
5.3
2.6
3.6
0.4
21
22
Tobacco manufacturing___________________
Broad and narrow fabrics, yarn and thread mills.
Miscellaneous textiles and floor coverings____
Hosiery and knit goods___________________
Apparel__________________ ____ ________
0.9
3.4
7.9
7.3
3.5
1.7
3.2
5.2
5.8
2.7
0.6
2.4
3.1
3.6
2.2
86
87
88
6.1
13.2
5.4
11.5
3.5
3.6
5.9
1.6
5.4
3.4
3.1
1.9
89
90
2.4
8.3
10.1
3.7
7.0
4.6
3.3
5.5
4.0
29
30
Miscellaneous fabricated textile products.......
Logging, sawmills and planing m ills_________
Millwork and plywood and miscellaneous wood
products____________ _______________
Household furniture___ _________ _________
Other furniture_______ ____ _____________
Railroad and other miscellaneous transportatation equipment______________________
Transportation equipment, nec__________ _
Professional, scientific and controlling instru
ments____________
_______________
Medical and dental instruments _ ________
Optical and ophthalmic equipment ________
4.9
3.1
5.6
5.1
3.8
4.5
3.1
2.3
2.4
91
92
93
94
31
32
33
34
35
Paper products____ _______ ______ _____
Paperboard____ ________ _______________
Publishing________ _____________________
Printing________________________ _____
___
___
Chemical products
4.3
5.1
3.8
4.3
5.9
4.7
4.3
3.2
4.4
5.9
3.2
2.8
2.6
3.2
4.2
36
37
38
39
40
Agricultural chemicals____________ _______
Plastic materials and synthetic rubber_______
Synthetic fibers_______________ ______ ___
Drugs... ______
. ._ ____
_ __
Cleaning and toilet preparations__ _________
6.2
7.7
11.5
7.7
6.4
5.6
9.7
5.2
7.9
6.5
3.8
4.3
3.8
4.8
4.6
41
42
43
44
45
Paint__________ ____ _________ _______
Petroleum products
_
__
_______
Rubber products____ ____________________
Plastic products
___
Leather footwear and leather products
3.0
4.1
4.0
14.1
1.1
4.0
1.5
4.4
10.1
1.1
2.6
1.6
3.3
5.5
1.9
46
47
48
49
50
Glass .
_ __
....................
Cement, clay, and concrete products________
Miscellaneous stone and clay products______
Blast furnaces and basic steel products
Iron and steel foundries, forging and m isc___
3.8
2.5
3.1
3.1
4.2
3.3
4.2
1.7
1.9
1.8
2.8
3.2
2.5
1.9
2.5
51
52
53
54
55
Primary copper metals
..
_____
Primary aluminum
_
__________
Other primary and secondary nonferrous metal.
Copper rolling and drawing
. ________
Aluminum rolling and drawing ___________
6.6
5.8
5.3
1.6
6.8
6.4
7.5
2.5
2.4
4.6
2.7
5.2
3.7
2.4
5.3
56
57
58
59
60
Ofher nonferrous rolling and drawing
Miscellaneous nonferrous metal products
Metal containers___________ ____________
Heating apparatus and plumhing fixtures
Fabricated structural metal
4.5
5.5
4.4
2.1
5.2
4.8
2.0
4.5
4.1
4.8
3.7
2.5
2.1
3.5
3.3
61
62
63
64
65
Screw machine products
.
__ ___
Other fabricated metal products ............... .
Engines, turbines and generators............. ......
Farm machinery_____________ _____ _____
Construction, mining and oil field machinery...
3.1
4.8
5.0
3.6
3.3
3.2
4.3
7.2
3.7
4.3
2.0
3.4
4.9
3.2
2.9
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
23
24
25
26
27
28
NOTE: The measure of output at the detailed industry level is gross duplicated out
put rather than gross product originating. Gross duplicated output differs from gross
output originating in that it includes in the output of each industry its cost of materials
11.4
4.6
2.0
8.0
4.2
2.4
7.2
3.6
1.2
95
Photographic equipment and supplies_______
Miscellaneous manufactured products______
Railroad transportation_____ ___
________
Local, suburban and interurban highway trans
portation________ ___________________ _
Truck transportation_____________________
- 0 .7
3.6
0.7
4.7
0.6
3.0
96
97
98
99
100
Water transportation_____ ________ _______
Air transportation__________ _____________
Other transportation_____________________
Communications, except radio and TV_______
Radio and TV broadcasting....____________
0.6
13.6
5.3
8.0
4.2
2.4
9.1
4.6
8.1
1.8
0.3
7.1
3.9
5.4
1.3
101
102
103
104
105
Electric utilities_________________________
Gas utilities___ ____ _______ _____ _______
Water and sanitary services_______ ________
Wholesale trade____ ____ _____ ____ _____
Retail trade...................................................
6.6
5.5
3.3
5.1
4.1
6.9
2.3
2.3
4.9
4.2
5.6
1.6
2.4
3 2
2.7
106
107
108
109
110
Finance...................... .............. ................. .
Insurance......... ................. ....................... .
Owner occupied dwellings_________________
Other real estate_______ ________________
Hotels and lodging places.. . . .
______
5.9
3.8
4.8
5.2
4.7
5.6
3.7
4.6
4.4
3.5
4.4
3.1
4.4
3.2
3.0
111
112
113
114
115
Other personal services __________________
Miscellaneous business services____________
Advertising_____________________________
Miscellaneous professional services_________
Automobile repair__________ ___________
2.6
7.3
0.5
6.6
3.0
2.0
7.2
3.3
5.4
4.8
2.1
5.6
2.2
5.0
2.7
116
117
118
119
120
Motion pictures_________________________
Other amusements____________ _____ ____
Doctors, dentists, and other medical services..
Hospitals... . . . ______________ _______
Educational services_______________ ______
1.0
4.0
5.2
6.5
6.5
0.6
3.7
5.6
7.2
4.0
0.7
2.7
3.7
5.5
3.7
121
122
123
124
125
Nonprofit organizations__________________
Post Office________ ____ __________ ____ _
Commodity Credit Corporation_____________
Other Federal enterprises________________
State and local government enterprises______
4.2
5.2
0.0
5.5
4.9
3.8
5.2
0.0
4.7
4.5
3.5
4.1
0.0
3.9
3.7
-
and the products primary to its output which are made in other sectors as secondary
products, in addition to value added.
[Employment in thousands]
Employment
Projected employment
Average annual percent change
Industry m atrix number and title
1959
1968
1972
1980
1985
Total civilian employment2___________ ____ ____
67,820
80,926
85,597
101,576
107,609
2.0
1.9
1.2
1
2
3
4
5
Livestock and livestock products.....................................
Crops and other agricultural products............................
Forestry and fisheries______________________________
Agriculture, forestry, and fishery services...___________
Iron ore mining_______ _______________ ____________
2,467
3,052
56
224
30
1,637
2,179
58
268
27
1,381
2,069
59
309
22
960
1,340
65
355
27
790
1,110
65
375
25
- 4 .5
- 3 .7
0.4
2.0
- 1 .2
- 4 .3
-4 .0
1.0
2.4
0.0
- 3 .8
- 3 .7
0.0
1.1
- 1 .5
6
7
8
9
10
Copper ore mining_________________________________
Other nonferrous metal ore mining___________________
Coal mining________________________ ____ _________
Crude petroleum______________________ ____________
Stone and clay mining and quarrying___________ ______
24
32
207
350
105
29
28
140
296
101
40
26
155
287
97
46
33
156
265
107
48
37
156
239
105
2.1
- 1 .5
- 4 .2
- 1 .8
- 0 .4
3.9
1.5
0.9
- 0 .9
0.8
0.9
2.3
0.0
-2 .0
- 0 .4
11
12
13
14
15
Chemical and fertilizer mining_______________________
New residential buildings_______ ___________________
New nonresidential buildings.................... ............ ..........
New public utilities___ _____ _____ ____ _____________
New streets and highways____ ________ _____________
20
20
19
21
22
0.0
0.6
0.9
3,727
4,038
4,386
4,908
5,184
0.9
1.6
1.1
16
17
18
19
20
All other new construction____________________ ____ _
Maintenance and repair construction__________________
Guided missiles and space vehicles___________________
Other ordnance___________________________________
Food products_______________________ _______ _____
110
93
1,845
150
188
1,818
90
99
1,785
120
84
1,804
143
83
1,760
3.5
8.1
- 0 .2
-1 .8
- 6 .5
- 0 .1
3.6
- 0 .2
- 0 .5
21
22
23
24
25
Tobacco manufacturing_____________________________
Broad and narrow fabrics, yarn and thread mills________
Miscellaneous textiles and floor coverings______________
Hosiery and knit goods_____________________________
Apparel________________________ _____ ___________
95
615
111
220
1,103
85
614
132
247
1,242
72
590
135
268
1,177
68
620
143
275
1,355
68
608
143
275
1,360
- 1 .2
0.0
2.0
1.3
1.3
— 1.8
0.1
0.7
0.9
0.7
0.0
- 0 .4
0.0
0.0
0.1
26
27
28
29
30
Miscellaneous fabricated textile products_________ _____
Logging, sawmills and planing m ills___________________
Millwork and plywood and miscellaneous wood products...
Household furniture________________________________
Other furniture................ ...............................................
149
474
274
290
115
188
372
302
343
145
181
348
339
365
142
218
328
366
456
173
218
290
370
473
171
2.6
- 2 .7
1.1
1.9
2.6
1.3
- 1 .0
1.6
2.4
1.5
0.0
- 2 .4
0.2
0.7
- 0 .2
31
32
33
34
35
Paper products______ _____ ________ ______ _________
Paperboard__________ __________________________
Publishing____ __________________ _______ _________
Printing........ .................................................................
Chemical products___________________ _____ ___ ____
414
174
508
467
361
469
222
590
560
435
475
223
598
565
395
555
298
700
668
489
567
317
721
690
494
1.4
2.8
1.7
2.0
2.1
1.4
2.5
1.4
1.5
1.0
0.4
1.2
0.6
0.7
0.2
36
37
38
39
40
Agricultural chemicals____________ ______ ___________
Plastic materials and synthetic rubber_________________
__________
S y n th e tic fib e rs ______________________
Drugs______________ ______ _________________ ____
Cleaning and toilet preparations........................ ..............
46
71
69
105
89
57
106
110
137
116
52
103
115
147
123
60
150
130
195
160
60
150
131
200
166
2.4
3.0
5.4
3.0
3.0
0.5
3.0
1.4
3.0
2.7
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.5
0.7
41
42
43
44
45
Paint___________________________________________
Petroleum products_______ ________________________
Rubber products___ ____ _____________ ___________
Plastic products________________ ____ _____________
Leather footwear and leather products_________ _______
62
216
258
117
376
70
187
296
267
357
69
190
307
322
306
80
165
370
487
304
80
160
383
502
292
1.4
- 1 .6
1.5
9.6
- 0 .6
1.1
- 1 .0
1.9
5.1
— 1.3
0.0
- 0 .6
0.7
0.6
- 0 .8
46
47
48
49
50
Glass____________________________________________
Cement, clay, and concrete-products__________________
Miscellaneous stone and clay products_________________
Blast furnaces and basic steel products____ ______ _____
Iron and steel foundries, forging and miscellaneous..........
153
292
175
587
267
176
292
183
636
296
191
304
182
573
284
241
349
215
605
285
252
367
221
589
285
1.6
0.0
0.5
0.9
1.2
2.7
1.5
1.4
-0 .4
- 0 .3
0.9
1.0
0.6
- 0 .5
0.0
51
52
53
54
55
Primary copper metals.......... ..........................................
Primary aluminum_________________________ _______
Other primary and secondary nonferrous metal_____ ____
Copper rolling and drawing..............................................
Aluminum rolling and drawing...___________ _________
12
20
37
49
59
12
27
39
43
71
17
29
38
40
67
21
41
42
42
80
21
41
43
41
80
0.0
3.3
0.6
- 1 .4
2.1
4.6
3.6
0.6
- 0 .3
- 1 .8
0.0
0.0
0.5
- 0 .5
0.0
56
57
58
59
60
Other nonferrous rolling and drawing............ .................
Miscellaneous nonferrous metal products______________
Metal containers__________________________________
Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures............. .............
Fabricated structural metal____________ _____________
77
73
73
81
339
96
99
80
82
418
100
91
81
81
435
121
106
97
95
562
126
116
97
100
599
2.5
3.4
1.1
0.2
2.4
1.9
0.6
1.6
1.2
2.5
0.8
1.8
0.0
1.0
1.3
1959-68
1968-80
1980-85
Projected employment
Employment
Average annual percent change
Industry matrix number and title
1959
1968
1972
1980
1985
1959-68
1968-80
1980-85
61
62
63
64
65
Screw machine products____________ _____ ______ ___
Other fabricated metal products........ ...... ................ ........
Engines, turbines and generators............................ ..........
Farm machinery_________________ ____ ____________
Construction, mining and oil field machinery.....................
279
370
90
123
162
359
468
110
144
192
333
457
110
134
201
455
631
158
148
240
506
680
167
153
248
2.8
2.6
2.3
1.7
1.9
2.0
2.5
3.1
0.3
1.9
2.1
1.5
1.1
0.7
0.7
66
67
68
69
70
Material handling equipment________________________
Metal working machinery------ ----------------------------------Special industry machinery--------------------------------------General industrial machinery________________________
Machine shop products_____________________________
63
252
166
224
179
89
349
202
285
253
86
297
180
268
242
112
387
220
377
290
124
400
216
402
303
3.8
3.7
2.2
2.7
3.9
2.0
0.9
0.7
2.3
1.2
2.1
0.7
- 0 .4
1.3
0.9
71
72
73
74
75
Computers and peripheral equipment--------------------------Typewriters and other office machines------------------------Service industry machines------ ----------------------- -----Electric transmission and distribution equipment------------Electric industrial apparatus_________________________
94
44
97
157
176
199
51
136
205
213
206
40
149
193
209
435
59
186
300
250
475
59
193
325
259
8.6
1.7
3.8
3.0
2.1
6.8
1.2
2.7
3.2
1.3
1.8
0.0
0.7
1.6
0.7
76
77
78
79
80
Household appliances______________________________
Electric lighting and wiring.. -------------------- -------------Radio and TV receiving sets_________________________
Telephone and telegraph apparatus------ --------- -----------Radio and TV industrial equipment-----------------------------
157
136
113
105
234
179
203
154
132
390
196
204
139
149
281
205
305
127
161
350
215
352
127
161
350
1.5
4.6
3.5
2.6
5.8
1.1
3.5
— 1.6
1.7
- 0 .9
1.0
2.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
81
82
83
84
85
Electronic components______________________________
Miscellaneous electrical machinery-----------------------------Motor vehicles. __________ ____ ___________________
Aircraft_________________________________ _______
Ship and boatbuilding and repair_______________ _____
214
106
693
721
149
382
119
875
852
186
342
125
862
501
183
465
131
1,030
565
320
480
139
1,006
600
330
6.6
1.3
2.6
1.9
2.5
1.6
0.8
1.4
-3 .4
4.6
0.6
1.2
- 0 .5
1.2
0.6
86
87
88
89
90
Railroad and other miscellaneous transportation equipment.
Transportation equipment, nec____ __________________
Professional, scientific and controlling instruments......... .
Medical and dental instruments----------------- ---------------Optical and ophthalmic equipment____________________
46
30
194
46
39
59
72
230
75
52
66
136
200
91
55
75
140
272
126
58
80
150
290
145
60
2.9
10.4
1.9
5.5
3.3
2.0
5.6
1.4
4.4
0.8
1.3
1.4
1.3
2.8
0.7
91
92
93
94
95
Photographic equipment and supplies..------ -------- ------ Miscellaneous manufactured products------ ------------------Railroad transportation_____________________________
Local, suburban and interurban highway transportation----Truck transportation_______________________________
68
414
928
312
998
107
457
661
312
1,203
113
446
575
300
1,278
155
467
455
326
1,628
174
477
364
326
1,705
5.2
1.1
- 3 .7
0.0
2.1
3.1
0.2
- 3 .1
0.4
2.6
2.3
0.4
- 4 .4
0.0
0.9
96
97
98
99
100
Water transportation_______________________________
Air transportation_________________________________
Other transportation_______________________________
Communications, except radio and TV_________________
Radio and TV broadcasting________________________
242
182
93
750
91
245
332
118
861
125
217
349
125
1,014
136
225
477
139
1,150
150
225
502
144
1,150
162
0.1
6.9
2.7
1.5
3.6
- 0 .7
3.1
1.4
2.4
1.5
0.0
1.0
0.7
0.0
1.6
101
102
103
104
105
Electric utilities_________________________ ____ _____
Gas utilities______________________________________
Water and sanitary services. __ . ------------- -------------Wholesale trade____________
_________ __________
Retail trade................. ...................................................
361
216
48
3,229
10,665
379
222
64
3,894
12,761
423
230
75
4,210
14,235
428
255
88
4,946
16,749
432
261
97
5,123
17,258
0.5
0.3
3.2
2.1
2.0
1.0
1.2
2.7
2.0
2.3
0.2
0.5
2.0
0.7
0.6
106
107
108
109
110
Finance_________________________________ _____ _
Insurance_______________________ ___ _____________
Owner occupied dwellings___________________________
Other real estate_______________________ _____ ____
Hotels and lodging places_________ ____ ________ ____
1,046
1,110
1,531
1,342
1,781
1,504
2,455
1,764
2,793
1,910
4.3
2.1
4.0
2.3
2.6
1.6
746
694
846
859
1,020
984
1,130
1,194
1,229
1,296
1.4
2.4
2.4
2.8
1.7
1.7
111
112
113
114
115
Other personal services_________ ______ _______ _____
Miscellaneous business services____ _________________
Advertising_____________________ ____ _____________
Miscellaneous professional services____ ______________
Automobile repair________ _________ _______ ________
1,665
776
114
733
385
1,996
1,507
131
1,061
534
1,912
1,810
133
1,287
597
2,171
3,019
157
1,710
783
2,214
3,647
164
1,932
850
2.0
7.7
1.6
4.2
3.7
0.7
6.0
1.5
4.1
3.3
0.4
3.9
0.9
2.5
1.7
116
117
118
119
120
Motion pictures______________________ ____ ______
Other amusements-------------- ------ ---------- ---------------Doctors, dentists and other medical services____________
Hospitals________________________________ ______
Educational services..... ........... .......................................
215
399
862
967
803
217
552
1,396
1,654
1,178
212
631
1,811
2,018
1,287
218
818
2,660
3,040
1,500
215
892
3,027
3,500
1,571
0.1
3.7
5.5
6.1
4.3
0.0
3.3
5.5
5.2
2.0
- 0 .3
1.7
2.6
2.9
0.9
121
122
123
124
125
Nonprofit organizations....... .......................................... .
Post Office........................... ....................... - ........... . 1
Commodity Credit Corporation............... ......................
Other Federal enterprises............................................ . I
State and local government enterprises.............................
1,323
1,692
1,823
2,300
2,505
(3)
(S)
( 3)
(3)
(3)
2.8
(3)
2.5
(3)
1.7
( 3)
Projected employment
Employment
Average annual percent change
Industry matrix number and title
1959
131
Total government_________________________ ____ ___
Total Federal Government______________________
Total State and local government________ _____
Household industry________________________________
133
1968
1972
1980
1985
1959-68
8,083
2,233
5,850
2,575
11,845
2,737
9,109
2,437
13,290
2,650
10,640
2,191
16,610
2,750
13,860
1,825
18,800
2,800
16,000
1,660
4.3
2.3
5.0
- 0 .6
1 Includes wage and salary employees, self-employed, and unpaid family workers.
* For the derivation of the civilian employment control totals, see table 9 of text.
1968-80
1980-85
2.9
2.5
0.4
2.9
- 1 .9
0.0
3.6
- 2 .3
3 Employment in government enterprises (industries 122-125) is included in general
civilian government.
Table C -4 . Nonagricultural employment of wage and salary workers, by industry, 1959, 1968, 1972, and projected for
1980 and 1985
[Employment in thousands]
Employment
1959
SIC code
1968
1972
Pro
jected
employ
ment,
1980
Industry
Pro
jected
employment,
1985
Average annual
percent change
1959-68 1968-80 1980-85
TOTAL NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT_____________
53,313.0
67,915.0
72,764.0
90,176.0
96,809.0
2.7
2.4
1.4
MINING_______________________________ _______ __________
732.0
606.0
607.0
623.0
601.0
- 2 .1
0.2
- 0 .7
10
101
102
103
104-6, 8, 9
Metal mining____________ ______ ______________________
Iron ores.. ________________________ ____ _________
Copper ores______________________________________
Lead and zinc ores1_______ ____ _____ _____ ________
Other metal ores1________ _____ ___ _____ __________
83.7
27.7
23.3
12.3
20.6
82.0
25.3
28.1
9.6
18.4
86.1
20.1
38.9
(2)
(2'
104.0
22.0
45.0
10.0
27.0
108.0
20.0
47.0
10.0
31.0
- 0 .2
- 1 .0
2.1
- 2 .7
- 1 .3
2.0
- 1 .2
4.0
0.3
3.2
0.8
1.9
0.9
0.0
2.8
11,12
Coal mining____ ________ _____________________________
198.2
132.2
146.9
150.0
150.0
- 4 .4
1.1
0.0
10-14
11
Anthracite mining3-------------------------------------------------
19.7
5.8
3.7
5.0
5.0
-1 2 .7
- 1 .2
0.0
12
Bituminous coal and lignite mining....................................
178.5
126.4
143.2
145.0
145.0
- 3 .8
1.2
0.0
13
131,2
138
Oil and gas extraction_____________________ ____ ________
Crude petroleum and natural gas fields________________
Oil and gas field services....... ...........................................
329.5
185.4
144.2
275.6
148.1
127.5
261.9
137 8
124.1
245.0
125.0
120.0
220.0
120.0
100.0
- 2 .0
- 2 .4
- 1 .4
- 1 .0
- 1 .4
- 0 .5
- 2 .2
- 0 .8
- 3 .6
14
142
144
141, 5, 7-9
Nonmetallic minerals, except fuels______________ _________
Crushed and broken stone.................................................
Sand and gravel___ ____ - ..............................................
Nonmetallic minerals, except fuels, nec3-----------------------
120.4
41.7
41.7
37.0
116.2
39.5
37.8
38.9
112.1
38.8
38.0
35.3
124.0
43.0
41.0
40.0
123.0
40.0
41.0
42.0
- 0 .4
- 0 .6
- 1 .1
0.6
0.5
0.7
0.7
0.2
- 0 .2
- 1 .5
0.0
1.0
2,960.0
3,285.0
3,521.0
4,050.0
4,332.0
1.2
1.8
1.4
15-17
CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION_______________________________
15
General building contractors____ ____ _____ _____ _________
959.0
999.8
1,036.5
1,121.0
1,200.0
0.5
1.0
1.4
16
161
162
Heavy construction contractors___________________________
Highway and street construction-------- ---------- -------------Heavy construction, nec_____________________________
586.5
310.4
276.1
678.7
317.3
361.5
732.4
331.9
400.5
842.0
326.0
516.0
900.0
348.0
552.0
1.6
0.2
3.0
1.8
0.2
3.0
1.3
1.3
1.4
17
171
172
173
174
176
177
175, 8, 9
Special trade contractors---------- --------------- ---------------------Plumbing, heating, air conditioning......... ............. .............
Painting, paperhanging, decorating--------- --------------------Electrical work_______________________ ____ ________
Masonry, stonework, and plastering_______ ____ _______
Roofing and sheet metal w ork...------- ---------------- -------Concrete w ork1______________ ____________ ________
Carpenters and other special trades1_____ ____________
1,414.1
327.9
152.9
194.7
247.4
108.2
52.3
292.2
1,606.0
390.3
132.2
266.8
227.9
111.8
61.5
379.7
1,751.7
436.2
126.2
318.5
208.5
117.6
(2)
(2)
2,087.0
515.0
135.0
395.0
230.0
136.0
107.0
569.0
2,232.0
549.0
144.0
422.0
248.0
146.0
114.0
609.0
1.4
2.0
- 1 .6
3.6
- 0 .9
0.4
1.8
3.0
2.2
2.3
0.2
3.3
0.0
1.6
4.7
3.4
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.4
MANUFACTURING_________ _______________ _______ — ........
16,675.0
19,781.0
18,933.0
22,605.0
23,224.0
1.9
1.1
0.5
DURABLE GOODS............... ..................................................
9,373.0
11,626.0
10,884.0
13,440.0
13,983.0
2.4
1.2
0.8
Ordnance and accessories................... .......................... .
Ammunition, except for small arms_________ ____
Complete guided missiles.................. .................
203.5
119.3
110.1
338.0
252.2
150.0
188.2
129.4
90.3
204.0
146.0
121.0
226.0
168.0
143.0
5.8
8.7
3.5
- 4 .1
- 4 .5
- 1 .8
2.1
2.8
3.4
19-39
19. 24, 25, 32-39
19
192
1925
(Employment in thousands]
Employment
SIC code
Industry
1959
1968
1972
Pro
jected
employ
ment,
1980
Pro
jected
employment,
1985
Average annual
percent change
1959-68 1968-80 1980-85
24
241
242
2421
2426, 9
243
2431
2432
2433
244
2441, 2
2443, 5
249
Lumber and wood products.....................................................
Logging camps, and logging contractors.............................
Sawmills and planing m ills.............. ...... ............. .............
Sawmills and planing mills, general...... .....................
Special products sawmills and planing m ills 1_______
Millwork, plywood, and related products.............. ............
Millwork................... ................................................
Veneer and plywood___ ______ ________ ____ _____
Prefabricated wood structures1..................................
Wooden containers................................... ......................
Wooden boxes, shook, and crates.................. ............
Veneer, plywood containers, cooperage1.....................
Miscellaneous wood products..........................................
658.8
94.4
305.2
268.9
36.3
156.1
73.5
66.9
12.6
43.4
32.7
10.6
59.8
600.1
79.1
231.8
194.2
37.6
167.6
73.4
75.2
16.9
37.1
29.5
8.1
84.5
612.0
68.9
216.7
184.0
(2)
204.8
87.1
81.3
(2)
28.2
22.6
(2
)
93.4
628.0
68.0
205.0
174.0
31.0
220.0
90.0
93.0
37.0
25,0
20.0
5.0
110.0
599.0
65.0
172.0
140.0
32.0
225.0
92.0
95.0
38.0
20.0
15.0
5.0
117.0
- 1 .0
- 2 .0
- 3 .0
- 3 .6
0.4
0.8
0.0
1.3
3.3
- 1 .8
- 1 .2
- 2 .9
3.9
0.4
- 1 .3
- 1 .0
- 0 .9
- 1 .6
2.3
1.7
1.8
6.7
- 3 .2
- 3 .2
- 3 .9
2.2
-1 .0
- 0 .9
- 3 .5
- 4 .2
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.5
- 4 .4
- 5 .6
0.0
1.2
25
251
2511
2512
2515
2514, 9
252
254
253,9
253
259
Furniture and fixtures............................................................
Household furniture........................................................
Wood household furniture_____ _____ ____________
Upholstered household furniture.............................
Mattresses and bedsprings........ ................... ............
Other household furniture1________ _____________
Office furniture.................................................................
Partitions and fixtures____________ ____ ____________
Other furniture and fixtures ............ - ........... ...................
Public building furniture1_______________ ______
Miscellaneous furniture and fixtures1.........................
385.0
277.8
139.4
67.7
38.4
34.1
26.6
36.8
43.9
20.9
21.9
471.6
332.3
172.4
86.0
38.3
36.8
36.1
49.5
53.7
28.4
23.6
492.7
355.9
177.2
101.0
38.5
(2)
38.6
50.6
47.6
)
(2
(2)
611.0
445.0
225.0
131.0
43.0
46.0
45.0
60.0
61.0
38.0
23.0
631.0
465.0
233.0
140.0
43,0
49.0
45.0
60.0
61.0
38.0
23.0
2.3
2.0
2.4
2.7
- 0 .1
0.8
3.5
3.3
2.3
3.5
0.8
2.2
2.5
2.2
3.6
1.0
1.9
1.9
1.6
1.1
2.5
- 0 .2
0.6
0.9
0.7
1.3
0.0
1.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
32
321
322
3221
3229
323
324
325
3251
3255
3253,9
326
327
328,9
328
3291
3292
3293, 5-7, 9
Stone, clay, and glass products................................... ............
Flat glass............................. ........................................
Glass and glassware, pressed or blown............. ................
Glass containers.....................................................
Pressed and blown glass, nec___ ____ _____________
Products of purchased glass1............................................
Cement, hydraulic_________________________ ________
Structural clay products..................................................
Brick and structural clay tile.....................................
Clay refractories1___ ________ _____________ ____
Other structural clay products1..................................
Pottery and related products_____________ ____________
Concrete, gypsum, and plaster products................... .........
Other stone and nonmetal mineral products......................
Cut stone and stone products1....................................
Abrasive products........................ ............................
Asbestos products1..... ................ ............................
Miscellaneous nonmetallic mineral products, nec1......
604.0
34.3
100.2
57.2
43.0
17.0
43.9
77.8
34.4
16.1
25.8
47.7
159.0
124.0
18.0
27.8
22.2
54.3
635.5
26.7
121.1
68.7
56.3
27.2
34.7
63.9
28.5
13.6
21.0
43.4
182.0
136.5
16.4
27.1
25.8
66.0
660.0
24.5
133.7
76.2
57.5
(2
)
33.6
58.8
26.0
(2)
(2)
44.2
198.7
134.6
(2)
26.4
(2)
(2)
795.0
22.0
184.0
107.0
77.0
34.0
29.0
52.0
19.0
13.0
20.0
38.0
259.0
177.0
13.0
34.0
30.0
100.0
830.0
20.0
194.0
116.0
78.0
37.0
25.0
42.0
10.0
12.0
20.0
36.0
291.0
185.0
13.0
36.0
31.0
105.0
0.6
- 2 .7
2.1
2.1
3.0
5.4
- 2 .5
-2 2
- 2 .1
- 1 .9
- 2 .2
- 1 .1
1.5
1.1
- 1 .0
0.3
1.7
2.2
1.9
- 1 .6
3.5
3.8
2.6
1.9
- 1 .5
- 1 .7
- 3 .3
- 0 .4
- 0 .4
- 1 .1
3.0
2.2
- 2 .0
1.9
1.3
3.5
0.9
1.9
1.1
1.6
0.3
1.7
-2 .9
- 4 .2
-1 2 .0
- 1 .7
0.0
- 1 .1
2.4
0.9
0.0
1.1
0.7
1.0
33
331
3312
3317
332
3321
3322
3323
333,4
3331
3332
3333
3339
334
335
3351
3352
3356
3357
336
3361
3362,9
339
3391
3392, 9
Primary metal industries..................................... ...................
Blast furnaces and basic steel products.............................
Blast furnaces and steel mills....................................
Steel pipe and tubes1....................... .....................
Iron and steel foundries................................... ...............
Gray iron foundries....... ...........................................
Malleable iron foundries............................ ............
Steel foundries_________ ____ _____ ___ _____ —
Nonferrous metals..................................................... —
Primary copper1.......................................................
Primary lead L . . .....................................................
Primary zinc 1_.................................................. —
Primary nonferrous metals, nec1......................... —
Secondary nonferrous metals1............................. —
Nonferrous rolling and drawing.........................................
Copper rolling and drawing........................................
Aluminum rolling and drawing........................ — 1.__
Nonferrous rolling and drawing, nec1.........................
Nonferrous wire drawing and insulating................i.._
Nonferrous foundries........................................................
Aluminum castings....................................................
Other nonferrous castings....... ................. ...............
Miscellaneous primary metal products...............................
Iron and steel forgings........................ .......................
Miscellaneous primary metal products, nec1................
1,182.6
587.3
515.3
26.6
211.8
124.4
28.4
59.0
67.9
14.9
5.4
9.8
8.8
13.2
185.4
49.0
58.9
16.9
60.2
68.3
31.8
36.5
61.9
46.3
14.8
1,315.5
635.9
555.5
28.9
225.7
140.9
22.8
62.0
78.1
12.3
3.1
9.7
9.0
17.2
210.3
43.4
70.6
22.9
73.4
90.7
46.2
44.5
74.9
49.5
25 1
1,234.8
572.7
492.2
(2)
220.2
139.2
24.9
56.2
83.6
(2)
(2
)
(2)
(2)
(2)
205.9
39.7
66.6
(2)
79.2
83.7
43.5
40.2
68.7
45.5
(2
)
1,341.0
605.0
524.0
30.0
218.0
137.0
24.0
57.0
98.0
21.0
4.0
8.0
10.0
19.0
243.0
42.0
80.0
33.0
88.0
93.0
48.0
45.0
84.0
52.0
32.0
1,342.0
589.0
510.0
29.0
196.0
115.0
24.0
57.0
105.0
21.0
4.0
7.0
10.0
22.0
249.0
41.0
82.0
35.0
91.0
103.0
53.0
50.0
100.0
68.0
32.0
1.2
0.9
0.8
0.9
0.7
1.4
- 2 .4
0.6
1.6
- 2 .2
- 6 .0
- 0 .1
0.3
3.0
1.4
- 1 .4
2.0
3.4
2.2
3.2
4.2
2.2
2.1
0.7
6.1
0.1
-0 .4
- 0 .5
0.3
- 0 .3
- 0 .2
0.4
- 0 .7
1.9
4.6
2.1
- 1 .6
0.9
0.9
1.2
- 0 .3
1.0
3.1
1.5
0.2
0.3
0.0
0.0
- 0 .5
- 0 .5
- 0 .7
- 2 .2
- 3 .5
0.0
0.0
1.4
0.0
0.0
- 2 .6
0.0
3.0
0.5
-0 .5
0.5
1.2
0.7
2.1
2.0
2.1
3.5
5.5
1.0
0.4
2.0
0.0
[Employment in thousands]
Employment
SIC code
Industry
Pro
jected
employ
ment,
1980
Pro
jected
employ
ment,
1985
Average annual
percent change
1959-68 1968-80 1980-85
1959
34
341
342
3421,
3429
343
3431,
3433
344
3441
3442
3443
3444
3446,
345
3451
3452
346
347
348
349
3491
3494,
3492,
35
351
3511
3519
352
353
3531,
3533
3534
3535,
354
3541
3544
3545
3542,
355
3551
3552
3554
3555
3553,
356
3561
3562
3566
3565,
357
3572
3576,
358
3585
3581,
359
3, 5
2
9
8
3, 6, 7, 9
2
6
8
9
7, 9
9
2, 6, 9
36
361
3611
3612
3613
362
3621
3622
3624
3623,9
363
3632
3633
3634
3636
3631, 5, 9
1968
1972
Fabricated metal products...................................................
Metal cans__________________ ______ _____ _______ _
Cutlery, hand tools, and hardware.------ --------- -------------Cutlery and hand tools, including s a w s____________
Hardware, nec._------- -------------------------------------Plumbing and heating, except electric.............................
Sanitary ware and plumbers' brass goods____ ____
Heating equipment, except ele ctric.......... ................
Fabricated structural metal products------- --------- ----------Fabricated structural steel....... ..................................
Metal doors, sash, and trim______________________
Fabricated plate work (boiler shops)....... ....................
Sheet metal work------------------------ --------------------Architectural and miscellaneous metal work________
Screw machine products, Dolts, etc.------------------------Screw machine products............. ........ ....................
Bolts, nuts, rivets, and washers________________ _
Metal stampings...... ........... ........... ................... ............
Metal services, nec------ ---------------------- -------------------Miscellaneous fabricated wire products.............................
Miscellaneous fabricated metal products.................. .........
Metal barrels, drums, and pails1....... ........... ............
Valves, pipe, and pipe fittings-----------------------------Miscellaneous fabricated metal products, nec1....... .
1,122.5
62.5
135.2
53.1
82.1
80.7
33.5
47.2
343.4
92.4
63.7
93.8
53.0
30.4
87.1
38.1
49.1
188.4
63.2
56.3
115.9
10.1
72.4
32.0
1,390.4
67.1
163.6
63.7
99.7
82.3
37.0
45.3
412.2
109.8
66.9
109.6
78.5
47.3
110.6
50.6
60.0
245.8
90.7
66.6
151.6
13.3
92.6
44.6
1,371.1
68.2
155.5
65.2
90.2
80.7
39.0
41.6
429.4
101.8
75.9
111.9
84.0
55.8
96.9
42.0
54.9
234.0
85.7
67.1
153.7
(2
)
95.9
(2)
1,823.0
80.0
196.0
88.0
108.0
95.0
44.0
51.0
558.0
136.0
87.0
149.0
117.0
69.0
130.0
63.0
67.0
318.0
126.0
80.0
240.0
17.0
143.0
80.0
1,970.0
80.0
200.0
90.0
110.0
100.0
46.0
54.0
595.0
145.0
88.0
160.0
125.0
77.0
159.0
77.0
82.0
345.0
139.0
89.0
263.0
17.0
157.0
89.0
2.4
0.8
2.1
2.0
2.2
0.2
1.1
- 0 .5
2.0
1.9
0.5
1.7
4.5
5.0
2.7
3.2
2.3
3.0
4.1
1.9
3.0
3.1
2.8
3.8
2.3
1.5
1.5
2.7
0.7
1.2
1.5
1.0
2.6
1.8
2.2
2.6
3.4
3.2
1.4
1.8
0.9
2.2
2.8
1.5
3.9
2.1
3.7
5.0
1.6
0.0
0.4
0.5
0.4
1.0
0.9
1.1
1.3
1.3
0.2
1.4
1.3
2.2
4.1
4.1
4.1
1.6
2.0
2.2
1.8
0.0
1.9
2.2
Machinery, except electrical......................................... ...........
Engines and turbines......................................... ..............
Steam engines and turbines..................................
Internal combustion engines, nec................................
Farm machinery.................................... ........................
Construction and related machinery........... ......................
Construction and mining machinery_______________
Oil field machinery---------------------------------- --------Elevators and moving stairways1......................... ......
Conveyors, hoists, cranes, monorails_______________
Metalworking machinery.............................. ..................
Machine tools, metal cutting types............. ................
Special dies, tools, jigs and fixtures...........................
Machine tool accessories......... ........... .....................
Miscellaneous metal working machinery........ ..........
Special industry machinery----------------- ---------------------Food products machinery.............................. ..........
Textile machinery................................. ..................
Paper industries machinery1........ .............................
Printing trades machinery. ___ _____ ____ _______
Other special industry machinery 1..............................
General industrial machinery........ ....................................
Pumps and compressors........ .................................
. _
Ball and roller bearings...................................
Power transmission equipment_________ ____ _____
Other general industrial machinery and equipment l . . _
Office and computing machines.................. ........... .........
Typewriters1--------- -------- ------- --------------- ------ Scales, balances, and office machines, nec 1................
Service industry machines------------ ---------- ---------------Refrigeration machinery.......... ................. ................
Other service industry machinery 1.............. ...............
Miscellaneous machinery, except electrical...... ................
1,452.1
89.7
36.1
53.7
122.3
225.6
126.6
35.6
13.3
29.3
245.2
64.8
85.1
40.8
54.5
160.9
32.5
37.2
15.8
21.9
55.6
221.0
59.9
52.4
45.4
39.4
138.2
21.6
22.8
97.2
61.3
34.5
149.2
1,969.9
109.7
38.2
71.5
142.6
280.5
150.1
41.5
14.7
42.2
342.0
80.0
124.0
60.8
77.3
199.5
42.7
41.0
21.8
31.4
63.4
282.4
77.3
60.3
51.9
61.2
249.9
24.8
28.1
135.5
87.1
48.2
223.8
1,864.2
110.3
44.1
66.3
132.4
287.2
155.7
45.4
(2)
39.2
288.2
57.5
112.8
48.3
69.6
178.1
37.7
369.9
(2)
26.7
(2)
264.8
75.4
51.5
47.3
(2
)
245.4
(2
)
(2)
148.6
100.3
(2)
209.1
2,563.0
158.0
63.0
95.0
147.0
352.0
182.0
58.0
20.0
50.0
380.0
70.0
155.0
72.0
83.0
218.0
49.0
37.0
24.0
39.0
69.0
374.0
93.0
75.0
63.9
96.0
494.0
16.0
44.0
185.0
128.0
57.0
255.0
2,692.0
167.0
67.0
100.0
153.0
372.0
188.0
60.0
20.0
56.0
393.0
73.0
160.0
74.0
86.0
214.0
48.0
36.0
24.0
38.0
68.0
399.0
100.0
80.0
67.0
102.0
534.0
21.0
38.0
192.0
133.0
59.0
268.0
3.4
2.3
0.6
3.2
1.7
2.4
1.9
1.7
1.1
4.1
3.8
2.4
4.3
4.5
4.0
2.4
3.1
1.1
3.6
4.1
1.5
2.8
2.9
1.6
1.5
5.0
6.8
1.5
2.3
3.8
4.0
3.8
4.6
2.2
3.1
4.3
2.4
0.3
1.9
1.6
2.8
2.6
1.4
0.9
- 1 .1
1.9
1.4
0.6
0.7
1.2
- 0 .9
0.8
1.8
0.7
2.4
1.6
1.8
1.6
3.8
5.8
- 3 .6
3.8
2.6
3.3
1.4
1.1
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.0
0.8
1.1
0.7
0.7
0.0
2.3
0.7
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.7
- 0 .4
- 0 .4
0.6
0.0
- 0 .5
- 0 .3
1.3
1.5
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.6
5.6
- 2 .9
0.7
0.8
0.7
1.0
Electrical equipment and supplies.................................. .........
Electrical test and distributing equipment................ .........
Electrical measuring instruments.............. .................
Transformers------------------------- ---------------- -------Switchgear and switchboard apparatus............ ...........
Electrical industrial apparatus.........................................
Motors and generators....... ..................... ........... ......
Industrial controls....................................................
Carbon and graphite products1..................................
Other electrical industrial apparatus1.......... ..............
Household appliances................................... ....................
Household refrigerators and freezers........................
Household laundry equipment.................. .......... ......
Electric housewares and fans.....................................
Sewing machines1............. ...... .................................
Other household appliances1......................................
1,396.4
157.0
46.2
43.2
67.6
175.5
100.4
42.3
10.5
20.6
157.0
48.6
27.4
32.6
10.6
37.3
1,974.5
204.9
66.4
56.9
81.5
213.0
116.1
58.0
13.4
24.9
179.3
58.4
25.2
44.1
8.5
43.9
1,833.0
192.8
66.2
52.5
74.1
208.9
113.9
58.0
(2)
(2)
196.4
59.5
28.1
50.4
(2)
(2)
2,291.0
300.0
114.0
78.0
108.0
250.0
125.0
74.0
17.0
34.0
205.0
66.0
25.0
58.0
6.0
50.0
2,405.0
325.0
124.0
84.0
117.0
259.0
130.0
77.0
17.0
35.0
215.0
72.0
25.0
62.0
5.0
51.0
3.9
3.0
4.1
3.1
2.1
2.2
1.6
3.6
2.7
2.1
1.5
2.1
- 0 .9
3.4
- 2 .4
1.8
1.2
3.2
4.6
2.7
2.4
1.3
0.6
2.1
2.0
2.6
1.1
1.0
- 0 .1
2.3
-2 .9
1.1
1.0
1.6
1.7
1.5
1.6
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.0
0.6
1.0
1.8
0.0
1.3
- 3 .6
0.4
[Employment in thousands]
Employment
Industry
SIC code
1959
1968
1972
Pro
jected
employ
ment,
1980
Pro
jected
employment,
1985
Average annual
percent change
1959-68 1968-80 1980-85
364
3641
3642
3643,4
365
366
3661
3662
367
3671-3
3674, 9
369
3691
3692
3694
3693,9
Electric lighting and wiring equipment_________________
Electric lamps___ ________________ _____ _____
Lighting fixtures_____ _________________________
Wiring devices_______________ _____ ________ __
Radio and TV receiving equipment________ ______ _____
Communication equipment________ __________________
Telephone and telegraph apparatus___ ____________
Radio and TV communication equipment_______ ____
Electronic components and accessories__________ ______
Electron tubes______ _____________________ _____
Other electronic components___________ ____ _____
Miscellaneous electrical equipment and supplies________
Storage batteries1----- -------- --------------- --------- ----Primary batteries, dry and w et1___ ___ ____ ______
Engine electrical equipment...______________ ____
Other miscellaneous electrical equipment1__________
134.5
28.7
48.2
57.6
113.1
339.7
105.3
234.4
213.3
75.8
137.4
106.3
21.1
9.4
63.1
16.6
200.7
38.4
67.0
99.6
155.3
526.3
132.2
390.3
381.4
74.7
324.9
119.3
16.1
11.8
65.6
19.0
201.7
38.3
67.5
98.0
139.2
429.5
148.5
281.0
340.7
50.9
289.9
123.8
(2)
(2)
65.8
(2)
303.0
44.0
82.0
177.0
127.0
511.0
161.0
350.0
465.0
51.0
414.0
130.0
23.0
16.0
69.0
22.0
350.0
50.0
95.0
205.0
127.0
511.0
161.0
350.0
480.0
47.0
433.0
138.0
24.0
17.0
76.0
21.0
4.5
3.3
3.7
6.3
3.6
5.0
2.6
5.8
6.7
- 0 .2
10.0
1.3
- 3 .0
2.6
0.4
1.5
3.5
1.1
1.7
4.9
- 1 .7
- 0 .3
1.7
- 0 .9
1.7
- 3 .1
2.0
0.7
3.0
2.6
0.4
1.2
2.9
2.6
3.0
3.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.6
- 1 .6
0.9
1.2
0.9
1.2
2.0
- 0 .9
37
371
3711
3712
3713
3714
372
3721
3722
3723, 9
373
3731
3732
374
3741
3742
375,9
Transportation equipment.__ _______ ____ _______________
Motor vehicles and equipment_____ _______ ___________
Motor vehicles_____________ ____________ ______
Passenger car bodies----------------------------------------Truck and bus bodies___________________ _______
Motor vehicle parts and accessories_________ ____ _
Aircraft and parts________________________ _________
Aircraft---------------------------------------------------------Aircraft engines and engine parts_________________
Other aircraft parts and equipment_____ __________
Ship and boat building and repairing.............................. .
Ship building and repairing___________ _____ _____
Boat building and repairing______________________
Railroad equipment______________________ ______ ___
Locomotives and parts1_________________________
Railroad and street cars1__________ ____ _________
Other transportation equipment.________ _____________
1,635.0
692.3
272.5
60.5
28.8
309.4
720.6
399.3
182.8
135.8
146.5
117.5
29.0
40.7
17.2
22.2
34.8
2,038.6
873.7
373.1
59.5
37.8
376.1
852.0
487.8
216.4
147.8
181.6
141.0
40.6
46.8
16.5
31.7
84.6
1,746.8
860.9
381.3
45.6
39.2
369.4
501.1
272.2
138.5
90.5
178.0
134.5
43.4
51.6
(2)
(2)
155.3
2,125.0
1,030.0
448.0
53.0
49.0
445.0
565.0
307.0
151.0
107.0
315.0
242.0
73.0
56.0
19.0
37.0
159.0
2,161.0
1,006.0
438.0
47.0
50.0
436.0
600.0
326.0
160.0
114.0
325.0
250.0
75.0
60.0
20.0
40.0
170.0
2.5
2.6
3.6
- 0 .2
3.1
2.2
1.9
2.2
1.9
0.9
2.4
2.0
3.8
1.6
- 0 .5
4.0
10.4
0.3
1.4
1.5
- 1 .0
2.2
1.4
- 3 .4
- 3 .8
- 2 .9
- 2 .6
4.7
4.6
5.0
1.5
1.2
1.3
5.4
0.3
- 0 .5
- 0 .5
- 2 .3
0.4
- 0 .4
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.3
0.6
0.7
0.5
1.4
1.0
1.6
1.3
38
381
382
3821
3822
383,5
383
385
384
386
387
Instruments and related products____ _____ ______________
Engineering and scientific instruments_______________ .
Mechanical measuring and control devices______________
Mechanical measuring devices____ _______________
Automatic temperature controls___________________
Optical and ophthalmic goods_________________ _______
Optical instruments and lenses1__________________
Ophthalmic goods__________________ ____________
Medical instruments and supplies______ _____ ___ _____
Photographic equipment and supplies__________________
Watches, clocks, and watchcases_________________ ____
345.3
72.3
92.4
61.0
31.3
39.1
10.9
28.0
45.4
67.6
28.6
461.9
83.5
110.2
68.5
41.7
52.4
19.6
32.9
74.2
106.9
34.7
455.9
64.1
103.7
65.6
38.1
54.4
(2)
38.5
90.4
112.8
30.4
609.0
89.0
144.0
90.0
54.0
58.0
19.0
39.0
125.0
155.0
38.0
667.0
95.0
154.0
96.0
58.0
60.0
20.0
40.0
144.0
174.0
40.0
3.3
1.6
2.0
1.3
3.2
3.3
6.7
1.8
5.6
5.2
2.2
2.3
0.6
2.3
2.3
2.2
0.8
- 0 .3
1.4
4.4
3.1
0.8
1.8
1.3
1.4
1.3
1.4
0.7
1.0
0.5
2.9
2.3
1.0
39
391
3911-3
3914
394
3941-3
3949
395
396
393,9
393
399
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries___________________
Jewelry, silverware, and plated ware__________________
Precious metal jewelry and lapidary work 1_________
Silverware and plated ware1_____________________
Toys and sporting goods...... ........... ................. ...............
Games, toys, dolls, and play vehicles____ ____ _____
Sporting and athletic goods, nec__________________
Pens, pencils, office and art supplies____ ____ ____ ____
Costume jewelry and notions________________ ______ _
Other manufacturing industries____________ _______ _ .
Musical instruments and parts____________________
Miscellaneous manufactures1____________________
387.7
43.3
27.6
15.0
97.4
62.4
35.1
30.8
60.0
156.2
19.0
136.5
433.4
52.2
37.0
15.0
119.3
69.1
50.1
34.5
60.3
167.2
24.5
142.6
425.2
53.0
(2)
(2)
119.9
65.0
54.8
33.4
54.5
164.4
23.7
(2)
450.0
52.0
42.0
10.0
137.0
69.0
68.0
41.0
50.0
170.0
20.0
150.0
460.0
53.0
43.0
10.0
140.0
70.0
70.0
42.0
50.0
175.0
20.0
155.0
1.2
2.1
3.3
0.0
2.3
1.1
4.0
1.3
0.1
0.8
2.9
0.5
0.3
0.0
1.1
- 3 .3
1.2
0.0
2.6
1.4
- 1 .6
0.1
- 1 .7
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.0
0.4
0.3
0.6
0.5
0.0
0.6
0.0
0.6
NONDURABLE GOODS..................................................................
7,303.0
8,155.0
8,049.2
9,165.0
9,241.0
1.2
1.0
0.2
Food and kindred products_________ _________ ___________
Meat products______ __________________ _______ ____
Meat packing plants............ ......................... ...........
Sausages and other prepared meats____ ___________
Poultry dressing plants____________ ____ _________
Dairy products____________________________________
Condensed and evaporated m ilk 1_________________
Ice cream and frozen desserts............................. ......
Fluid milk____________________________________
Cheese and creamery butter1____ _____ _____ ____
1,789.6
317.1
207.5
45.5
64.2
317.3
16.0
36.5
224.3
39.4
1,781.5
332.3
185.6
57.7
89.0
258.6
13.0
26.8
183.9
33.9
1,751.1
344.5
179.4
61.6
103.5
224.6
(2
)
23.6
155.5
(2)
1,775.0
363.0
170.0
70.0
123.0
171.0
11.0
17.0
112.0
31.0
1,743.0
357.0
167.0
69.0
121.0
168.0
11.0
16.0
110.0
31.0
0.0
0.5
- 1 .2
2.7
3.7
- 2 .2
- 2 .2
- 3 .3
- 2 .2
- 1 .7
0.0
0.7
- 0 .7
1.6
2.7
- 3 .4
- 1 .4
- 3 .8
- 4 .0
- 0 .7
- 0 .4
- 0 .3
- 0 .4
- 0 .3
- 0 .3
- 0 .4
0.0
- 1 .2
- 0 .4
20-23, 26-31
20
201
2011
2013
2015
202
2023
2024
2026
2021, 2
0.0
[Employment in thousands]
Employment
SIC Code
Industry
1959
1968
1972
Pro
jected
employ
ment,
1980
Pro
jected
employment,
1985
Average annual
percent change
1959-68 1968-80 1980-85
203
2031,6
2032,3
2034, 5
2037
204
2041
2042
2046
2043-5
Canned, cured, and frozen foods_____ ________________
Canned, cured, and frozen sea foods............... ...........
Canned foods, except sea food.____ _______ _______
Dehydrated and pickled foods1___ _____ __________
Frozen fruits and vegetables--------------------------------Grain mill products........................... .................. .............
Flour and other grain mill products________________
Prepared feeds for animals and fowl....... ....................
Wet corn m illing1______________ _____ __________
Other grain mill products1----- ----- -----------------------
245.9
39.8
137.4
25.6
38.3
134.1
38.8
57.2
17.2
20.8
279.8
40.8
145.4
29.4
60.2
132.5
29.9
62.7
17.0
22.4
282.4
43.7
139.0
<
2)
67.3
133.7
27.5
66.8
(2)
(2
)
339.0
48.0
145.0
38.0
108.0
137.0
25.0
70.0
16.0
26.0
333.0
47.0
143.0
37.0
106.0
135.0
23.0
70.0
16.0
26.0
1.4
0.3
0.6
1.5
5.2
- 0 .1
- 2 .8
1.0
- 0 .1
0.8
1.6
1.4
0.0
2.2
5.0
0.3
- 1 .5
0.9
- 0 .5
1.2
- 0 .4
- 0 .4
- 0 .3
- 0 .5
- 0 .4
- 0 .3
- 1 .7
0.0
0.0
0.0
205
2051
2052
206
2061
2062
2063
207
2071
2072, 3
208
2082
2085
2086
2083, 4, 7
209
2091-3
2094-9
Bakery products_________________________________
Bread, cake, and related products_________________
Cookies and crackers------------ ----------------------------Sugar____________________ _______ _______________
Raw cane sugar1_______________________________
Cane sugar refining l _. ------- -------------------- ----------Beet sugar1---------------- -----------------------------------Confectionery and related products____ _______________
Confectionery products----------- ------ --------------------Chocolate and cocoa products, chewing gum 1---------Beverages___________________________________ ____
Malt liquors_________ _________ _____ _____ _____
Distilled liquor, except brandy1-------------------- -------Bottled and canned soft drinks_______________ ____
Other beverages and related products1____ ________
Miscellaneous foods and kindred products______________
Vegetable oil m ills 1____________________________
Miscellaneous food preparations1__________________
300.5
256.4
44.1
38.1
9.6
16.3
7.1
78.5
64.5
13.5
214.7
72.1
21.3
101.4
17.8
143.4
22.6
116.3
280.1
235.7
44.4
36.5
9.2
11.8
8.8
84.1
68.1
15.2
233.4
59.9
20.4
128.7
20.4
144.2
16.0
125.9
271.1
226.8
44.3
39.3
<
2)
(2)
(2)
78.6
60.9
(2)
230.1
55.0
(2)
127.8
(2)
146.7
(2)
(2)
:
245.0
199.0
46.0
36.0
7.0
9.0
20.0
86.0
65.0
21.0
250.0
48.0
23.0
150.0
29.0
148.0
15.0
133.0
240.0
195.0
45.0
35.0
6.0
9.0
20.0
85.0
65.0
20.0
245.0
46.0
23.0
147.0
29.0
145.0
15.0
130.0
- 0 .8
- 0 .9
0.1
- 0 .5
- 0 .5
- 3 .6
2.4
0.8
0.6
1.3
0.9
- 2 .1
- 0 .5
2.7
1.5
0.1
- 3 .8
0.9
- 1 .1
- 1 .4
0.3
- 0 .1
- 2 .2
- 2 .2
7.1
0.2
- 0 .4
2.7
0.6
- 1 .9
1.0
1.2
3.0
0.2
- 0 .5
0.5
- 0 .4
- 0 .4
- 0 .4
- 0 .6
- 3 .0
0.0
0.0
- 0 .2
0.0
-1 .0
- 0 .4
- 0 .9
0.0
- 0 .4
0.0
- 0 .4
0.0
- 0 .5
21
211
212
213, 214
Tobacco manufactures_______ ___ _____ _________________
Cigarettes----------------- ----------------------- -----------------Cigars----------------------------- -----------------------------------Other tobacco manufacturing3.......................... ................
94.5
36.9
29.6
28.0
84.6
40.9
20.1
23.6
72.0
42.2
13.8
16.0
68.0
45.0
10.0
13.0
68.0
45.0
10.0
13.0
- 1 .2
1.2
- 4 .2
- 1 .9
- 1 .8
0.8
- 5 .7
- 4 .9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
22
221
222
223
224
225
2251
2252
2253
2254
2256, 9
226
227
228
2281,3
2282,4
229
2298
2291-7, 9
Textile mill products---------------------------- ------------------------Weaving mills, cotton.---------- ---------------------------------Weaving mills, synthetics...------ -------------------------------Weaving and finishing mills, wool_____ _______________
Narrow fabric mills........................ .................................
Knitting mills_____________________________________
Women's hosiery, except socks_______ ___________
Hosiery, nec__________________________________
Knit outerwear mills-------------- . . . . . ------------Knit underwear m ills...................... ..........................
Knit fabric and knitting mills, nec3-----------------------Textile finishing, except wool______ ________ __________
Floor covering mills____________________ ______ _____
Yarn and thread mills_________________ _________ ___
Yarn m ills 1___________________________________
Yarn throwing, winding, and thread m ills 1__________
Miscellaneous textile goods---------------------------------------Cordage and twine1-------------------- ---------------------Miscellaneous textile goods, nec 1........... .............. .
945.7
259.4
81.0
60.4
28.5
219.8
53.7
53.9
59.5
33.2
19.5
77.3
37.6
108.3
87.1
21.4
73.5
11.4
61.1
993.9
233.6
101.2
44.2
31.3
247.2
64.7
38.8
75.5
32.7
35.5
81.3
51.0
122.9
89.9
31.0
81.2
11.1
69.4
991.0
201.5
105.1
27.8
29.8
266.4
55.2
35.2
77.2
35.7
63.0
83.6
61.5
142.4
(2)
(2)
72.3
<
2)
(2)
1,037.0
171.0
115.0
20.0
36.0
275.0
69.0
33.0
73.0
30.0
70.0
91.0
65.0
187.0
130.0
57.0
77.0
10.0
67.0
1,025.0
167.0
113.0
20.0
35.0
275.0
69.0
33.0
73.0
30.0
70.0
90.0
65.0
183.0
127.0
56.0
77.0
10.0
67.0
0.6
- 1 .2
2.5
- 3 .5
1.0
1.3
2.1
- 3 .6
2.7
- 0 .2
6.9
0.6
3.4
1.4
0.4
4.2
1.1
- 0 .3
1.4
0.4
- 2 .5
1.1
- 6 .4
1.2
0.9
0.5
- 1 .4
- 0 .3
- 0 .7
5.8
0.9
2.0
3.6
3.1
5.2
- 0 .4
- 0 .9
- 0 .3
- 0 .2
- 0 .5
- 0 .4
0.0
0.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0 .2
0.0
- 0 .4
0.5
- 0 .4
0.0
0.0
0.0
23
231
232
2321
2322
2327
2328
2323,9
233
2331
2335
2337
2339
234
2341
2342
235
236
2361
2363,9
Apparel and other textile products________________ _______
Men’s and boys' suits and coats_________ ____________
Men’s and boys' furnishings___ _____ __________ ____ _
Men’s and boys' shirts and nightwear............ .............
Men's and boys' underwear1.....................................
Men's and boys’ separate trousers..............................
Men's and boys' work clothing_____________ ______
Men's and boys' neckwear and clothing, nec1_______
Women's and misses' outerwear_____ _____ ______ ____
Women's and misses' blouses and waists___________
Women's and misses' dresses__________ ____ _____
Women’s and misses' suits and coats_____ ____ ____
Women's and misses’ outerwear, nec..........................
Women's and children's undergarments________________
Women’s and children's underwear____________ ___
Corsets and allied garments.......................................
Hats, caps, and millinery__________ ____ _________ ___
Children's outerwear..................... ..................................
Children’s dresses and blouses..................................
Children’s other outerwear1........................ ..............
1,225.9
118.3
297.0
109.7
12.4
53.8
71.8
46.0
371.4
41.3
192.8
84.7
52.5
118.5
78.7
39.8
37.1
75.4
34.6
39.5
1,405.8
130.7
364.4
120.1
17.9
79.6
81.4
63.4
425.4
52.0
202.5
87.0
83.8
125.6
84.7
40.8
23.2
78.9
34.5
45.1
1,335.3
106.9
385.0
118.5
(2)
85.2
85.8
(2)
396.0
42.0
190.2
66.1
97.7
114.1
81.7
32.5
16.3
75.8
31.4
(2
)
1,552.0
119.0
480.0
126.0
29.0
124.0
95.0
106.0
464.0
66.0
219.0
67.0
112.0
117.0
82.0
35.0
10.0
73.0
28.0
45.0
1,562.0
120.0
484.0
127.0
30.0
125.0
96.0
106.0
467.0
66.0
221.0
67.0
113.0
118.0
82.0
36.0
10.0
73.0
28.0
45.0
1.5
1.1
2.3
1.0
4.2
4.4
1.4
3.6
1.5
2.6
0.5
0.3
5.3
0.6
0.8
0.3
- 5 .1
0.5
0.0
1.5
0.8
- 0 .8
2.3
0.4
4.1
3.8
1.3
4.4
0.7
2.0
0.7
- 2 .2
2.4
- 0 .6
- 0 .3
- 1 .3
- 6 .8
- 0 .7
- 1 .8
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.7
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
[Employment in thousands]
Employment
industry
SIC code
1959
1968
1972
Pro
jected
employ
ment,
1980
Pro
jected
employ
ment,
1985
Average annual
percent change
1959-68 1968-80 1980-85
Fur goods and miscellaneous apparel......................... ......
Fur goods1------------------ ---------------------------------Fabric dress and work gloves
____ ____________
Other apparel and accessories1_____ ____ _________
Miscellaneous fabricated textile products_______________
House furnishings______________________________
Textile bags1------ -------------------------------------------Other fabricated textile products1_________________
74.1
8.8
14.4
45.2
136.8
51.6
9.1
72.8
80.8
7.5
15.6
56.7
176.8
64.2
10.7
100.7
70.7
(2)
(2)
(2)
170.6
70.7
(2)
(2)
77.0
3.0
14.0
60.0
212.0
75.0
5.0
132.0
78.0
3.0
14.0
61.0
212.0
75.0
5.0
132.0
1.0
- 1 .8
0.9
2.6
2.8
2.5
1.8
3.7
- 0 .4
- 7 .3
- 0 .9
0.5
1.5
1.3
- 6 .1
2.3
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
26
261, 2, 6
263
264
2643
2641, 2, 4-7, 9
265
2651, 2
2653
2655
Paper and allied products__________________________ ____
Paper and pulp m ills_____________________ __________
Paperboard mills---------- --------------------- ------------------Miscellaneous converted paper products----------------------Bags, except textile bags________________________
Other converted paper products1----- -------- -----------Paperboard containers and boxes-------------------------------Folding and set-up paperboard boxes______________
Corrugated and solid fiber boxes------ --------------------Fiber cans, drums, and related material1___________
587.2
217.7
70.6
125.1
30.1
91.6
173.7
68.8
68.9
12.6
691.2
217.7
72.0
179.8
41.9
135.1
221.7
68.6
102.7
18.8
697.0
207.3
70.9
196.7
44.3
(2)
222.2
61.4
109.4
(2)
853.0
212.0
78.0
265.0
63.0
202.0
298.0
66.0
174.0
30.0
884.0
217.0
79.0
271.0
64.0
207.0
317.0
70.0
185.0
33.0
1.8
0.0
0.2
4.1
3.7
4.4
2.7
0.0
4.5
4.5
1.8
- 0 .2
0.7
3.3
3.5
3.4
2.5
- 0 .3
4.5
4.0
0.7
0.5
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.5
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.9
27
271
272
273
275
2751
2752
2753
278
274, 6, 7, 9
277
274, 6, 9
Printing and publishing----------------------------------- --------- —
Newspapers---------- -------- --------- ------ ---------------------Periodicals________________ ____ ________ _____ ____
Books___________________________________________
Commercial printing-----------------------------------------------Commercial printing, except lithographic----------------Commercial printing, lithographic-------------------------Engraving and plate printing 1-----------------------------Blankbooks and bookbinding_________ ____ ______ ____
Other publishing and printing industries----------------------Greeting card publishing1-------------------------------- -Miscellaneous publishing and printing industries1.......
888.5
318.5
69.7
66.8
284.0
196.3
76.7
10.5
45.4
104.2
18.5
83.7
1,065.1
358.1
75.9
95.3
340.1
209.4
119.4
11.4
56.2
139.6
25.3
113.5
1,079.6
376.5
68.1
99.1
344.2
202.1
131.3
(2)
55.4
136.3
(2)
(2)
1,295.0
400.0
82.0
145.0
418.0
211.0
195.0
12.0
67.0
183.0
38.0
145.0
1,346.0
415.0
85.0
150.0
435.0
220.0
203.0
12.0
70.0
191.0
40.0
151.0
2.0
1.3
1.0
4.0
2.0
0.7
5.0
0.9
2.4
3.3
3.5
3.4
1.6
0.9
0.6
3.6
1.7
0.0
4.2
0.4
1.5
2.3
3.4
2.1
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.0
0.9
0.9
1.0
0.8
28
281
2812
2818
2819
282
2821
2822
2823, 4
283
2834
2831, 3
284
2841
2842, 3
2844
285
287
2871,2
2879
286, 9
286
2891, 3, 5, 9
Chemicals and allied products-----------------------------------------Industrial chemicals----------------- -----------------------------Alkalies and chlorine___________________________
Industrial organic chemicals, nec----------------- -----Industrial inorganic chemicals, nec------ -----------------Plastics materials and synthetics------------------- -----------Plastics materials and resins— ------------- ------Synthetic rubber1_____________________________
Synthetic fibers_________ _____ _____ _____ - ........
Drugs____________________________________ ______ Pharmaceutical preparations— _...................... ........
Other drugs and medicines 1._------ --------------- -------Soap, cleaners, and toilet goods._ -----------------------------Soap and other detergents----- --------------- ------------Polishing, sanitation, and finishing preparations1------Toilet preparations--------- ----------- . ---------------Paints and allied products----------------------------------------Agricultural chemicals......... ........ ....................................
Fertilizers, complete and mixing only------ -------- -----Agricultural chemicals, nec1-------------------------------Other chemical products____________________________
Gum and wood chemicals1______________ ____ ___
Other chemical preparations1------------------------------
809.2
278.6
24.2
107.9
92.5
149.4
70.0
10.1
68.7
104.8
75.7
29.0
88.7
32.6
24.2
31.7
62.2
45 5
36.1
9.2
79.9
7.7
52.5
1,029.9
315.5
24.9
128.0
96.5
216.1
91.9
14.0
110.2
136.9
105.6
30.6
116.9
40.1
29.1
46.9
69.8
56.8
39.7
16.9
117.9
6.9
62.9
1,002.2
302.3
21.4
121.9
96.5
217.3
89.7
(2)
114.6
147.1
118.1
(2)
122.4
39.5
(2)
50.4
69.2
52.0
35.8
(2)
91.9
(2)
(2)
1,263.0
376.0
20.0
165.0
105.0
280.0
130.0
20.0
130.0
195.0
161.0
34.0
160.0
51.0
37.0
72.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
112.0
5.0
82.0
1,280.0
377.0
19.0
166.0
105.0
281.0
130.0
20.0
131.0
200.0
165.0
35.0
166.0
53.0
38.0
75.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
116.0
5.0
84.0
2.7
1.4
0.3
1.9
0.5
4.2
3.1
3.7
5.4
3.0
3.8
0.6
3.1
2.3
2.1
4.4
1.3
2.5
1.1
7.0
4.4
- 1 .2
2.0
1.7
1.5
- 1 .8
2.1
0.7
2.2
2.9
3.0
1.4
3.0
3.6
0.9
2 6
2.0
2.0
3.6
1.1
0.5
0.0
1.4
- 0 .4
- 2 .6
2.2
0.3
0.0
- 1 .0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.7
0.8
0.5
0.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.7
0.0
0.5
29
291
295,9
Petroleum and coal products------------------------------------------Petroleum refining_________________________________
Other petroleum and coal products------------------------------
215.5
181.4
34.1
186.8
150.1
36.7
189.6
150.8
38.8
165.0
129.0
36.0
160.0
125.0
35.0
- 1 .6
- 2 .1
0.8
- 1 .0
- 1 .3
- 0 .2
- 0 .6
0.7
- 0 .6
30
301
302, 3, 6
303,6
307
Rubber and plastics products, nec-------------- --------------------Tires and inner tubes________________ ____ - ................
Other rubber products____________ ____ ___ ____ ____
Reclaimed and fabricated products1----------------------Miscellaneous plastics products........... ............ ...............
372.7
104.5
153.0
128.3
115.1
561.3
113.5
182.9
153.5
265.0
627.0
128.2
178.4
(2)
320.4
855.0
174.0
196.0
167.0
485.0
883.0
180.0
203.0
173.0
500.0
4.7
0.9
2.0
2.0
9.7
3.6
3.6
0.6
0.7
5.2
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.6
31
311
314
312, 3, 5-7, 9
313
317
312, 5, 9
Leather and leather products--------- ------------- ------------------Leather tanning and finishing................ ............... .........
Footwear, except rubber------------------------------------------Other leather products.................................... ...............
Footwear cut stock1---------------- --------- ---------------Handbags and personal leather goods------ ------ ------Other leather products, nec1______ ____ — ..........-
374.0
36.3
247.5
90.2
18.2
37.0
17.5
355.2
30.7
233.4
91.1
14.1
39.1
16.7
304.4
25.4
201.6
77.4
(2)
34.9
(2)
302.0
21.0
203.0
78.0
10.0
31.0
16.0
290.0
20.0
195.0
75.0
10.0
30.0
15.0
- 0 .6
- 1 .9
- 0 .7
0.1
- 2 .7
0.6
- 0 .5
- 1 .4
- 3 .1
- 1 .2
- 1 .3
- 2 .8
-2 .0
- 0 .4
- 0 .8
- 1 .0
- 0 .8
- 0 .8
0.0
- 0 .7
- 1 .3
237,8
237
2381
2384-7, 9
239
2391, 2
2393
2394-7, 9
[Employment in thousands]
1959
1968
1972
Pro
jected
employ
ment,
1980
Employment
SIC code
40-49
Industry
Pro
jected
employment,
1985
Average annual
percent change
1959-68 1968-80 1980-85
TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNICATIONS, AND PUBLIC UTILITIES.
4,011.0
4,310.0
4,495.0
5,104.0
5,159.0
0.8
1.4
0.2
40
4011-1
4011-2
4013-1
4013-2
Railroad transportation____________________ _____ ___ _
Class 1 railroads_______ _______________ _____ _____
Class II railroads1_________________________________
Class 1 switching and terminal companies1 _____________
Class II switching and terminal companies 1 ............ ..........
924.8
815.2
17.5
42.9
10.2
661.0
583.3
14.5
23.9
13.4
574.5
519.3
(2)
(2)
(2)
455.0
416.0
9.0
16.0
7.0
364.0
331.0
7.0
15.0
6.0
- 3 .7
- 3 .7
-2 .1
- 6 .3
3.1
- 3 .1
- 2 .8
- 3 .9
- 3 .3
- 5 .3
- 4 .4
- 4 .5
- 4 .9
- 1 .3
- 3 .0
41
411
412
413
414, 5, 7
Local and interurban passenger transit_____________ _____
Local and surburban transportation___________________
Taxicabs_________________________________________
Intercity highway transportation______________________
Other passenger transit services1_____ ____ ___________
281.3
103.0
118.9
41.4
19.0
281.5
81.4
111.2
43.2
49.0
267.6
69.8
100.0
41.3
(2)
300.0
76.0
97.0
42.0
85.0
300.0
76.0
97.0
42.0
85.0
0.0
- 2 .5
- 0 .7
0.5
11.1
0.5
- 0 .6
- 1 .1
- 0 .2
4.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
42
422
Trucking and warehousing______________________________
Public warehousing__________________ ____________
844.3
87.5
1,044.5
85.3
1,101.8
85.0
1,465.0
85.0
1,550.0
90.0
2.3
- 0 .3
2.9
0.0
1.1
1.1
45
451,2
458
Transportation by air________________ _______ ___________
Air transportation__________________________________
Air transportation services 1_________________________
179.3
160.9
17.2
329.2
279.9
30.8
345.0
312.0
(2)
475.0
439.0
36.0
500.0
462.0
38.0
7.0
6.3
6.7
3.1
3.8
1.3
1.0
1.0
1.1
46
Pipeline transportation--------------------- -----------------------------
24.3
18.5
18.1
14.0
15.0
- 3 .0
- 2 .2
1.4
44, 47
441,2
443
444,5
446
Other transportation services________ _____ _____________
Deep sea transportation 1___________________________
Great Lakes transportation 1___________ ____________
River, canal, and local water transportation 1____________
Water transportation services 1__________________ ____
308.5
83.3
4.0
29.5
114.9
339.3
82.7
3.0
34.6
110.5
322.7
(2)
(2)
(2)
(2)
342.0
52.0
3.0
49.0
117.0
346.0
52.0
3.0
49.0
117.0
1.1
- 0 .1
-3 .1
1.8
- 0 .4
0.0
- 3 .8
0.0
2.7
0.5
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
48
481
482
483
489
Communication___________________ ____________________
Telephone communication__________________________ _
Telegraph communication____________ _____ _________
Radio and television broadcasting__________ ____ ______
Communication services, nec1_______________________
836.8
707.1
39.0
88.9
1.6
981.7
812.4
32.8
123.0
12.6
1,146.0
961.0
26.1
133.7
(2)
1,296.0
1,092.0
20.0
148.0
36.0
1,308.0
1,092.0
20.0
160.0
36.0
1.8
1.6
- 1 .9
3.7
26.0
2.3
2.5
- 4 .0
1.6
9.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
1.6
0.0
49
491
492
493
494-7
Electric, gas, and sanitary services___________ _____ _______
Electric companies and systems______ . ___________ .
Gas companies and systems................ ..........................
Combination companies and systems---------------------------Water, steam, and sanitary systems___________________
612.2
253.9
154.1
173.7
30.5
653.8
268.5
158.4
180.2
46.8
719.5
307.8
163.1
191.5
57.1
757.0
317.0
170.0
192.0
78.0
776.0
324.0
175.0
197.0
80.0
0.7
0.6
0.3
0.4
4.9
1.2
1.4
0.6
0.5
4.3
0.5
0.4
0.6
0.5
0.5
50, 52-59
WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE........ .......................................
11,127.0
14,084.0
15,683.0
19,080.0
19,776.0
2.7
2.6
0.7
50
501
502
503
504
505
506
507
508
509
Wholesale trade............ ..........................................................
Motor vehicles and automotive equipment__________ . . .
Drugs, chemicals, and allied products------- ------------------Dry goods and apparel______________________________
Groceries and related products_______________________
Farm product raw materials1________________________
Electrical goods___________________________________
Hardware; plumbing and heating equipment_______ _ . .
Machinery, equipment, and supplies_________ _ ______
Miscellaneous wholesalers__________ ________________
2,946.0
207.2
175.9
125.9
491.6
91.8
202.3
146.0
458.7
1,030.2
3,611.0
289.1
219.3
146.3
532.8
90.0
289.7
163.8
696.1
1,177.5
3,918.0
349.1
226.8
157.9
568.7
)
(2
325.2
178.0
746.9
1,260.9
4,670.0
481.0
289.0
173.0
579.0
82.0
481.0
190.0
989.0
1,406.0
4,850.0
500.0
300.0
180.0
600.0
85.0
500.0
185.0
1,040.0
1,460.0
2.3
3.8
2.5
1.7
0.9
- 0 .2
4.1
1.3
4.7
1.5
2.2
4.3
2.3
1.4
0.7
- 0 .5
4.3
1.2
3.0
1.5
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.8
- 0 .5
1.0
0.8
52-59
Retail trade____________________ ________ _____________
8,182.0
10,473.0
11,765.0
14,410.0
14,926 0
2.8
2.7
0.7
53
531
532
533
534, 5, 9
Retail general merchandise__________________ _______
Department sto re s___________________ _____ ___
Mail order houses.. _______ ______ ______ ______
Variety stores___________ ______________________
Other general merchandising1........................ ...........
1,532.3
896.9
92.4
322.8
202.8
2,161.1
1,406.3
128.2
311.6
294.4
2,426.3
1,594.1
127.6
329.7
(2)
3,018.0
2,053.0
181.0
299.0
485.0
3,126.0
2,126.0
187.0
310.0
503.0
3.9
5.1
3.7
- 0 .4
4.2
2.8
3.2
2.9
- 0 .3
4.2
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
54
541-3
544
545, 6, 9
Food stores_________________ ________ ______ ____ _
Grocery, meat, and vegetable stores ______________
Candy, nut, and confectionery stores1_____________
Retail bakeries and other food stores1_____________
1,305.4
1,134.1
34.2
138.0
1,619.9
1,454.4
29.1
136.6
1,825.9
1,651.0
(2)
(2)
2,220.0
2,061.0
22.0
137.0
2,300.0
2,135.0
23.0
142.0
2.4
2.8
- 1 .8
2.7
2.9
- 2 .3
0.1
0.0
0.7
0.7
0.9
0.7
56
561
562
565
566
563, 4, 7-9
Apparel and accessory stores_____ ________ _____ _____
Men’s and boys’ clothing and furnishings___________
Women’s ready-to-wear stores------ ----------------------Family clothing stores________________ _________ _
Shoe stores_________________________ ____ _____
Accessory and other clothing stores1.......................
604.5
96.5
233.3
89.7
113.3
75.2
701.8
120.0
260.8
108.4
141.9
68.2
751.7
131.8
287.2
105.1
153.1
(2)
840.0
162.0
316.0
124.0
164.0
74.0
870.0
169.0
327.0
128.0
170.0
76.0
1.7
2.5
1.2
2.1
2.5
- 1 .1
1.5
2.5
1.6
1.1
1.2
0.7
0.8
0.9
0.7
0.6
0.7
0.5
‘
-
[Employment in thousands]
Employment
Industry
SIC code
1959
1968
1972
Pro
jected
employ
ment,
1980
Pro
jected
employ
ment,
1985
Average annual
percent change
1959-68 1968-80 1980-85
57
571
572,3
Furniture and home furnishings stores-------------------------Furniture and home furnishings---------------------------Home appliance stores1--------------------------------------
395.9
246.1
147.5
419.9
278.8
157.9
472.8
297.3
(2)
507.0
324.0
183.0
525.0
336.0
189.0
0.7
1.4
0.8
1.6
1.3
1.2
0.7
0.7
0.5
58
Eating and drinking places----------------------------------------
1,602.9
2,298.4
2,684.1
3,572.0
3,700.0
4.1
3.7
0.8
52, 55, 59
52
55
551,2
553,9
554
Other retail trade---------------------------------------------------Building materials and farm equipment------------------- j
Automotive dealers and service stations------------------Motor vehicle dealers-----------------------------------Other automotive and accessory dealers--------------
2,740.5
575.5
1,243.6
652.6
141.9
449.1
3,253.5
536.3
1,547.5
749.3
212.5
585.5
3,604.3
584.4
1,693.3
794.7
264.3
634.3
4,253.0
541.0
2,109.0
958.0
355.0
796.0
4,405.0
560.0
2,185.0
992.0
368.0
825.0
1.9
- 0 .8
2.5
1.5
4.6
3.0
2.3
0.0
2.6
2.1
4.4
2.6
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
939.5
354.8
89.0
64.1
108.2
256.4
1,169.7
435.4
104.6
75.0
107.0
364.6
1,326.6
470.2
116.5
(2)
104.2
(2)
1,603.0
580.0
134.0
104.0
102.0
601.0
1,660.0
600.0
139.0
108.0
102.0
626.0
2.5
2.3
1.8
1.8
- 0 .1
4.0
2.7
2.4
2.1
2.8
- 0 .4
4.3
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.0
0.8
FINANCE, INSURANCE, AND REAL ESTATE__________________
2,594.0
3,382.0
3,927.0
4,987.0
5,569.0
3.0
3.3
2.2
Banking__________________________ _______ ___________-
640.0
916.2
1,105.2
1,515.0
1,725.0
4.1
4.3
2.6
61
612
614
Credit agencies other than banks--------------------------- --------- Savings and loan associations------------------------------------Personal credit institutions----------------------------------------
243.6
66.4
139.3
350.4
100.0
189.5
392.3
128.7
192.2
500.0
161.0
239.0
570.0
183.0
273.0
4.1
4.7
3.5
3.0
4.0
2.0
2.7
2.6
2.7
62
Security, commodity brokers and services---------------------------
106.7
192.1
197.8
321.0
365.0
6.8
4.4
2.6
63
631
632
633
635, 6, 9
Insurance carriers_________________________ ________ ___
Life insurance___________________ ____ _______ _____
Accident and health insurance------ -------------------------Fire, marine, and casualty insurance-------------------- ------ Other insurance carriers1------------ ------ ----------------------
816.9
448.7
49.8
278.0
39.6
983.0
513.8
81.1
344.6
42.4
1,104.1
567.7
99.4
382.8
(2)
1,285.0
643.0
142.0
443.0
57.0
1,400.0
700.0
155.0
485.0
60.0
2.1
1.5
5.6
2.4
0.8
2.3
1.9
4.8
2.1
2.5
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.0
64
Insurance agents, brokers, and services------------------------------
189.7
253.0
289.2
367.0
400.0
3.3
3.1
1.7
65
656
651, 3, 4
Real estate___________________________________________
Operative builders_________________________________
Other real estate dealers1-----------------------------------------
520.2
44.7
423.8
609.4
43.5
479.4
746.2
59.4
(2)
893.0
67.0
677.0
989.0
71.0
753.0
1.8
- 0 .3
1.4
3.2
3.7
2.9
2.1
1.2
2.2
66, 67
67
Other finance, insurance, and real estate------------------- -----Holding and other investment companies1---------------------
76.3
18.1
77.4
34.7
91.6
(2)
106.0
79.0
120.0
90.0
0.2
7.5
2.7
7.1
2.5
2.6
SERVICES_____________________ _____________ ____ - ...........
7,130.0
10,623.0
12,309.0
17,117.0
19,348.0
4.5
4.1
2.5
280.0
300.0
3.0
5.1
1.4
59
591
596
597
598
592, 3, 5,9
60-67
60
07-09, 70-86, 89,
99
Drug stores and proprietary stores-------------------Farm and garden supply stores-----------------------Jewelry stores1------------------------------------------Fuel and ice dealers-------------------------------------Other retail stores 1--------------------------------------
07-09
Agricultural services, forestry, and fisheries1....... - - ............. .
119.1
155.0
(2
)
70
701
702-4
Hotels and other lodging places---------------------------------------Hotels, tourist courts, and motels-------------------------------Other lodging places------------_-----------------------------------
546.8
490.3
56.5
722.2
648.5
73.7
849.0
708.0
141.0
1,060.0
905.0
155.0
1,160.0
1,000.0
160.0
3.1
3.2
3.0
3.2
2.8
6.4
1.8
2.0
0.6
72
721
Personal services........ .................................... .......................
Laundries and dry cleaning plants--------------------- ---------
890.7
529.1
1,031.4
548.5
913.0
438.3
1,027.0
489.0
1,055.0
501.0
1.6
0.4
- 0 .1
- 1 .0
0.5
0.5
73
731
732
733, 5, 6, 9
Miscellaneous business services------------------------ --------- ----Advertising----------------- -------- --------------------------------Credit reporting and collection--------- -------------------------Duplicating and other business services3......................... -
700.5
105.5
50.3
452.0
1,405.5
117.7
72.8
1,216.7
1,662.7
115.6
79.8
1,146.2
2,894.0
144.0
124.0
2,113.0
3,526.0
151.0
150.0
2,605.0
8.0
1.2
4.2
11.6
6.2
1.7
4.5
4.7
4.0
1.0
3.9
4.3
75
751
752
753,4
Auto repair, services, and garages1.................. .......................
Automobile rentals, without drivers1........... .....................
Automobile parking1------ ---------------------------------------Automobile repair shops and services1-------- -------- --------
239.7
19.5
33.2
187.0
349.9
49.6
38.8
261.5
(2)
(2)
(2)
(2)
600.0
129.0
50.0
421.0
667.0
144.0
56.0
467.0
4.3
10.9
1.7
3.8
4.6
8.3
2.1
4.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.1
762
763, 4, 9
Electrical repair shops1.....................- ............. - ........- .........
Other miscellaneous repair services1.......................................
42.2
81.9
59.3
113.8
(2)
(2)
80.0
163.0
82.0
168.0
3.9
3.7
2.5
3.0
0.5
0.6
78
781
7813-15
7816-18
782,3
Motion pictures...... ........... ...... ..........- ........... - ...................
Motion picture Filming and distributing.............................
Motion picture filming1----------------------------------Motion picture distributing1-------------------------------Motion picture theaters and services................. ................
195.1
44.9
25.2
18.3
150.2
196.0
54.7
34.8
13.3
141.3
191.1
51.4
(2
)
(2
)
139.7
198.0
58.0
35.0
23.0
140.0
198.0
58.0
35.0
23.0
140.0
0.0
2.2
3.7
3.7
- 0 .7
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.0
4.7
-
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Employment in thousands]
Employment
SIC code
Industry
1959
1968
79
791-3
794
Amusement and recreation services, nee1. . ...........................
Indoor amusements and recreation 1 ................................
Miscellaneous amusement, recreation services1.................
281.2
142.9
138.3
393.0
169.4
223.6
80
806
801-4, 7, 9
Medical and other health services......... ...... ............................
Hospitals...................................................... ........ ..........
Physicians, dentists, and other medical3. . . ____________
1,453.7
976.3
477.4
2,638.6
1,653.9
894.7
1972
(1
2)
(2
)
(2)
3,441.5
2,017.5
1,424.0
Pro
jected
employ
ment,
1980
Pro
jected
employ*
ment,
1985
653.0
181.0
472.0
725.0
193.0
532.0
3.8
1.9
5.5
4.3
0.6
6.4
2.1
1.3
2.4
5,280.0
3,040.0
2,240.0
6,100.0
3,500.0
2,600.0
6.8
6.0
7.2
6.0
5.2
7.9
2.9
2.9
3.0
Average annual
percent change
1959-68 1968-80 1980-85
81
Legal services.................................... ..................................
139.0
207.7
261.9
353.0
415.0
4.6
4.5
3.3
82
821
822
823, 4, 9
Educational services____ __________________ ____ ___ ____
Elementary and secondary schools................................. .
Colleges and universities_________ ____ _____ ___ ____
Other schools and educational services1............. ...............
716.2
242.4
418.1
57.8
1,067.3
360.3
619.1
86.9
1,166.8
391.1
638.3
(2)
1,357.0
469.0
790.0
98.0
1,422.0
491.0
828.0
103.0
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.6
2.0
2.2
2.1
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.9
1.0
84
Museums, botanical, zoological gardens1............................ .
7.9
15.1
(2)
28.0
30.0
7.5
5.3
1.4
86
866
867
861-5, 9
Nonprofit membership organizations1___ _________________
Religious organizations1........... ...................... ................
Charitable organizations1............................ ....................
Business, labor, and other nonprofit organizations1............
1,747.9
726.8
217.3
303.8
1,581.0
932.4
244.5
404.1
(2)
(2)
(2)
(2
)
2,112.0
1,139.0
340.0
633.0
2,300.0
1,240.0
370.0
690.0
2.7
2.8
1.3
3.2
2.4
1.7
2.8
3.8
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.7
89
891
893,9
Miscellaneous services....... ........... ............................... .........
Engineering and architectural services........... ................
Other miscellaneous services1..................................... .
335.6
183.7
113.1
579.0
289.3
189.6
704.1
318.3
(2
)
1,032.0
437.0
435.0
1,200.0
514.0
511.0
6.4
5.2
5.9
4.9
3.5
7.2
3.1
3.3
3.3
91-93
GOVERNMENT......... .......... ...................................... ....................
8,083.0
11,845.0
13,290.0
16,610.0
18,800 0
4.3
2.9
2.5
91
Federal Government..................... ..........................................
Executive............... ................. ............................. .........
Department of Defense.................. ............................
Post Office Department.................. ............................
Other agencies........................... ...............................
Legislative............... .......................... ..........................
Judicial......... .......................... ......................................
2,233.0
2,205.2
966.2
574.5
664.5
22.5
4.8
2,737.0
2,702.0
1,107.1
723.5
871.4
28.1
6.6
2,650.0
2,609.0
983.0
688.3
937.8
32.5
8.2
2,750.0
2,700.0
933.0
785.0
982.0
41.0
9.0
2,800.0
2,750.0
950.0
800.0
1,000.0
41.0
9.0
2.3
2.3
1.5
2.6
3.1
2.5
3.6
0.0
0.0
- 1 .4
0.7
1.0
3.2
2.6
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.0
0.0
92,93
State and local government.....................................................
5,850.0
9,109.0
10,640.0
13,860.0
16,000.0
5.0
3.5
2.9
92
9282
Other 92
State government.................................................... ......
State education............................. ................. ..........
Other State government...................... .................. .
1,484.3
419.8
1,064.6
2,448.8
958.0
1,490.8
2,848.4
1,188.4
1,660.0
3,465.0
1,641.0
1,824.0
4,000.0
1,883.0
2,117.0
5.7
9.6
3.8
2.9
4.6
1.7
2.9
2.8
3.0
93
9382
Other 93
Local government................................................... ..........
Local education....................................... ........... —
Other local government___________________ ____ _
4,365.8
2,249.9
2,116.0
6,659.8
3,735.6
2,924.2
7,791.2
4,396.1
3,395.1
10,395.0
5,271.0
5,124.0
12,000.0
7,100.0
4,900.0
4.8
5.8
3.7
3.8
2.9
4.8
2.9
6.1
- 0 .9
1 Data refer to employment in March rather than annual average employment.
2 Data comparable to other years are not available.
9 Annual average data are not available for this industry classification. The figure
was obtained by subtracting the sum of employment in individual industry for which
data are published from total published employment in the major industry group.
NOTE: Items may not add to totals either because of rounding or because data are
not presented for all industries.
Industry
Industry number
in SIC system 1
number and title in employment matrix
AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY, AND FISHERIES
1 Livestock and livestock products
2 Crops and other agricultural
products
3 Forestry and fisheries
4 Agriculture, forestry, and fishery services
J
01
074, 08 and 091
071, 0723, 073 pt. 0729, 085
and 098
MINING
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Iron ore mining
Copper ore mining
Other nonferrous metal ore mining
Coal mining
Crude petroleum
Stone and clay mining and quarrying
Chemical and fertilizer mining
101, 106
102
103-109, except 106
11, 12
1311, 1321, 138
141-145, 148 and 149
147
CONSTRUCTION
"
12 New residential buildings
13 New nonresidential buildings
14 New public utilities
15 New streets and highways
16 All other new construction
_
17 Maintenance and repair
15,16 and 17
Industry
61 Screw machine products
62 Other fabricated metal products
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
M ANUFACTURING
18 Guided missiles and space vehicles
19 Other ordnance
20 Food products
21 Tobacco manufacturing
22 Broad and narrow fabrics, yarn and thread mills
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
Miscellaneous textiles and floor coverings
Hosiery and knit goods
Apparel
Miscellaneous fabricated textile products
Logging, sawmills and planing mills
Millwork and plywood and miscellaneous wood
products
Household furniture
Other furniture
Paper products
Paperboard
Publishing
Printing
Chemical products
1925
19 except 1925
20
21
221, 222, 223, 224, 226, and
228
227 and 229
225
23 except 239
239
241 and 242
243, 244, and 249
251
25 except 251
26 except 265
265
271, 272, 273, and 274
275, 276, 277, 278, and 279
281, 286, and 289 except
28195
Agricultural chemicals
287
Plastic materials and synthetic rubber
2821, 2822
Synthetic fibers
2823, 2824
Drugs
283
Cleaning and toilet preparations
284
Paint
285
Petroleum products
29
Rubber products
30 except 307
307
Plastic products
Leather footwear and leather products
31
321, 322, and 323
Glass
324, 325, and 327
Cement, clay, concrete products
Miscellaneous stone and clay products
326, 328, and 329
Blast furnaces and basic steel products
331
Iron and steel foundries, forging and miscellaneous 332, 3391, and 3399
products
3331
Primary copper metals
3334 and 28195
Primary aluminum
Other primary and secondary nonferrous
3332, 3339, and 334
metal
3351
Copper rolling and drawing
3352
Aluminum rolling and drawing
3356 and 3357
Other nonferrous rolling and drawing
336 and 3392
Miscellaneous nonferrous metal products
341 and 3491
Metal containers
Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures
343
344
Fabricated structural metal
87
88
89
90
91
92
Industry number
in SIC system 1
number and title in employment matrix
Engines, turbines and generators
Farm machinery
Construction, mining and oil field machinery
Material handling equipment
Metal working machinery
Special industry machinery
General industrial machinery
Machine shop products
Computers and peripheral equipment
Typewriters and other office machines
Service industry machines
Electric transmission and distribution equipment
Electrical industrial apparatus
Household appliances
Electric lighting and wiring
Radio and TV receiving sets
Telephone and telegraph apparatus
Radio TV transmitting, signaling and detection
equipment
Electronic components
Miscellaneous electrical machinery
Motor vehicles
Aircraft
Ship and boat building and repair
Railroad and other miscellaneous transportation
equipment
Transportation equipment, nec
Professional, scientific and controlling instruments
Medical and dental instruments
Optical and ophthalmic equipment
Photographic equipment and supplies
Miscellaneous manufactured products
345 and 346
342,347,348, and 349 except
3491
351
352
3531, 3532, and 3533
3534, 3535, 3536, and 3537
354
355
356
359
3573, 3574
357, except 3573 and 3574
358
361
362
363
364
365
3661
3662
367
369
371
372
373
374 and 375
379
371, 382, and 387
384
383 and 385
386
39
TRANSPORTATION
93
94
95
96
97
98
Railroad transportation
Local, suburban and interurban highway
transportation
Truck transportation
Water transportation
Air transportation
Other transportation
40 and 474
41
42 and 473
44
45
46, 47 except 473 and 474
COMMUNICATION AND PU BLIC UTILITIES
99
100
101
102
103
Communications, except radio and TV
Radio and TV broadcasting
Electric utilities
Gas utilities
Water and sanitary services
48 except 483
483
491 and part 493
492 and part 493
494, 495, 496, 497, and part
493
WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE
104 Wholesale trade
105 Retail trade
50
52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58, and
59
FINANCE, INSURANCE, AND REAL ESTATE
106
107
108
109
Finance
Insurance
Owner occupied dwellings
Other real estate
60, 61, 62, and 67
63 and 64
(2)
65 and 66
SERVICES
110 Hotels and lodging places
111 Other personal services
112 Miscellaneous business services
113 Advertising
114 Miscellaneous professional services
115 Automobile repair
116 Motion pictures
117 Other amusements
70
72 and 76
73 except 731
731
81 and 89 except 892
75
78
79
Industry
Industry number
in SIC system 1
number and title in employment matrix
118 Doctors, dentists, and other medical services
119 Hospitals
120 Educational services
121 Nonprofit organizations
80 except 806
806
82
84, 86, and 892
Industry
number and title in employment matrix
Industry number
in SIC system 1
DUMMY INDUSTRIES
128 Business travel, entertainment, and gifts
129 Office supplies
130 Scrap, used and secondhand
(2
)
(2)
(2)
GOVERNMENT ENTERPRISES
SPECIAL INDUSTRIES
122 Post Office
123 Commodity Credit Corporation
124 Other Federal enterprises
125 State and local government enterprises
(2
)
(2)
(2)
(2)
131 Government industry
132 Rest of world industry
133 Households
134 Inventory valuation adjustment
IMPORTS
126 Directly allocated imports
127 Transferred imports
1 1967 edition.
(2
)
(2)
2 No comparable industry.
(2
)
(2)
(2)
(2
)
INTERESTED
in
keeping
current
on
employment,
wages,
prices,
and
productivity?
SEE
AD
ON
THE
FOLLOWING
PAGE!
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS
REGIONAL OFFICES
Region I
Region V
1603 JFK Federal Building
Government Center
Boston, Mass. 02203
Phone: 223-6762 (Area Code 617)
Region II
Suite 3400
1515 Broadway
New York, N.Y. 10036
Phone: 971-5405 (Area Code 212)
8th Floor, 300 South Wacker Drive
Chicago, Hi. 60606
Phone: 353-1880 (Area Code 312)
Region VI
1100 Commerce St., Rm. 6B7
Dallas, Tex. 75202
Phone: 749-3516 (Area Code 214)
Regions VII and VIII *
Region I I
I
P.O. Box 13309
Philadelphia, Pa. 19101
Phone: 597-1154 (Area Code 215)
Region IV
Regions IX and X **
Suite 540
1371 Peachtree St., NE.
Atlanta, Ga. 30309
Phone: 526-5418 (Area Code 404)
Federal Office Building
911 Walnut St., 15th Floor
Kansas City, Mo. 64106
Phone: 374-2481 (Area Code 816)
450 Golden Gate Ave.
Box 36017
San Francisco, Calif. 94102
Phone: 556-4678 (Area Code 415)
Regions VII and VIII are serviced by Kansas City
Regions IX and X are serviced by San Francisco
