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L y . 5 X ^ 7 . 3 THE U.S. ECONOMY In 1 9 8 0 A Summary of BLS Projections BULLETIN 1673 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Bureau of Labor Statistics l o ENT 1970 COLLEC THE U.S. ECONOMY In1980 A Summary of BLS Projections BULLETIN 1673 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR J. D. Hodgson, Secretary BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS Geoffrey H. Moore, Commissioner 1970 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402 - Price 65 cents FOREWORD Manpower needs are inextricably interwoven with the changing nature of the economy: Will it be growing? How many workers will want jobs? What will be our manpower requirements? Will advancing technology affect the nature of jobs? How will productivity changes affect job requirements? In this bulletin, the Bureau of Labor Statistics looks 10 years ahead at the growth and composition of the economy, its need for workers, and the likely supply of manpower. The past decade has been a period of rapid economic growth with major improvements in living standards. Yet this record has been tarnished by the inflationary developments of the past few years coupled with the impact of serious social problems including urban congestion, pollution of the environ ment, and racial discrimination. The economic challenge of the coming decade will be to contain inflation and yet keep output growing fast enough to absorb the 40 million additional workers that seem headed, if our projections material ize, towards the job world. At the same time, the Nation must make progress in meeting current social problems before these begin to affect adversely the Nation’s ability to maintain its forward momentum. Economic projections are only the beginning, not the end, of considering the future. They provide a framework within which economic and social policies, public and private, must be weighed and debated. In effect, they say: In the light of all that is known about current and future economic develop ments, the 1980 economy will look like this . . . But the future is not immutable. And whether or not projected economic growth and manpower requirements will lead to equality of opportunity, improved job satisfaction, or a richer life depends, not on projections, but on the human will and spirit. G e o f f r e y H. M o o r e , Commissioner Bureau of Labor Statistics m PREFACE The projections presented in this bulletin represent the work of a number of Bureau personnel. Their individual contributions will be given proper recognition in separate detailed studies to be published later this year. Special mention should be made, however, of the senior economists who had primary responsibility for supervising the staff research underlying the projections and preparing the final detailed reports. Sophia C. Travis, chief of the Division of Labor Force Studies: labor force, with the assistance of Denis F. Johnston, statistician (demography), Office of Manpower and Employment Analysis, who was specifically responsible for the projection of the educational attainment of the labor force. Ronald E. Kutscher, chief of the Division of Economic Growth : economic growth, including gross national product, output, output per man-hour, and total employment by industry. Russell B. Flanders, chief of the Division of Manpower and Occupational Outlook: wage and salary employment by industry and employment by occupation. The research activities were coordinated in the Office of Productivity Technology and Economic Growth by Jerome Mark, Assistant Commissioner, and Jack Alterman, director of the Bureau’s Economic Growth Studies, and in the Office of Manpower and Employment Statistics by Assistant Com missioner Harold Goldstein. The bulletin was written by Maxine G. Stewart, editor of the Occupa tional Outlook Quarterly. v CONTENTS Page Background of the projections, assumptions and techniques________ Assumptions______________ _____________________________ Projection techniques____________________________________ 1 2 2 Productivity and Gross National Product_______________________ Expected labor force______________________________________ Growth, hours, productivity______ Purchasers of the GNP__________________________________ Industry output____________________________ Technological change____________________________________ Productivity change________________________ __________ __. 4 4 4 6 10 14 15 Projected employment by industry and occupation__________. . . __ Service-producing industries___________________ Goods-producing industries_______________________________ How the employment projections differ_____________________ Occupational employment________________ Net occupational openings___ ____________________________ Changes in occupational groups____________________________ Employment in a durables economy________ ________________ 16 19 20 20 22 23 26 Projected shape of the labor force______________ _______________ Labor force changes____________________ __ Participation rates__________________ Educational attainment____ __________________ ____________ 26 27 29 30 Some implications of the projections_________. . . ________________ Growth of the economy_______________________ Demographic changes in the labor force.._ __________________ Educational attainment of the labor force___________________ 30 __17 ... 30 32 34 Tables: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Gross national product by major component, selected years and projected to 1980_____ Distribution of gross product, originating by major sector, 1965, 1967, projected to 1980______ ...________ ______ Gross product originating: average annual rate of change, 1968-80 (projected)_________________________________ Changes in total and wage and salary employment by indus try sector, 1965 and 1968 (actual) and 1980 (projected for services and durable goods economies) __________________ Average annual rate of employment change by major occupa tional group, 1960-68 (actual) and 1968-80 (projected for a services economy with 3-percent unemployment)________ Labor force balance sheet, 1960-70, 1970-80._____________ Distribution of college graduates by major occupational field, 1968 and 1980___ ___ ____ ____________ ____ _______ 6 10 11 17 21 27 35 vn CONTENTS— Continued Charts: Page 1. Projected productivity, by major sector, private economy, 1968-80_________________________________________ 2. Differences in demand structure in a services economy and in a durables economy, 1980 (both 3- and 4-percent un employment levels)________________________________ 3. Average annual rates of growth in value of output, 1968-80 (projected in 1968 dollars)____ ______________________ 4. Employment trends in goods-producing and services-producing industries, 1947-68 (actual) and 1968-80 (projected for a services economy with 3-percent unemployment)___ 5. Total employment: average annual rate of change by major sector, 1960-68 (actual) and 1968-80 (projected for a services economy)_________________________________ 6. Total employment: average annual rate of change, by major sector, 1960-68 (actual) and 1968-80 (projected for a du rables economy)_________________ '________________ 7. Employment trends among major occupational categories 1947-68 (actual) and 1980 (projected for a services econ omy with 3-percent unemployment)__________________ 8. Net j ob openings in maj or occupational categories and groups, 1968-80 (projected for a services economy with 3-percent unemployment)___________________________________ 9. Employment in major occupational groups 1968 (actual) and 1980 (projected for a services economy with 3-percent un employment)_____________________________________ 10. The shape of the labor force, 1968 (actual) and 1980 (pro jected)__________________________________________ 11. Major changes in the labor force,1960’s (estimated) and 1970’s (projected)_________________________________ 12. Labor force and population, 1890 to 1980________________ 13. Projected job openings for collegegraduates and projected entrants, 1968-80_________________________________ Appendix tables_____________________________________________ vni 8 9 12 18 21 22 23 24 25 27 28 29 34 37 The U.S. economy in 1 9 8 0 This bulletin presents highlights of the the shape of the U .S . economy in 1980— its output of goods and services, its labor projections and is intended to be an overview, force, its employment? New projections b y the limited for the most part, to the major sectors W h a t w il l b e Bureau of Labor Statistics indicate that: ► the labor force will have climbed by one- fifth to 100 million workers, and will include a large supply of young workers, age 2 5 -3 4 , totaling 26 million; ► the educational level of the labor force will have risen substantially; growing at the rate of 4.3 percent a year through the 1970’s, will have reached $1.4 trillion in 1968 dollars; ► gnp , ► productivity, hours will have declined to 38 a week, at the very slow pace of 0.1 percent a year through the 1970’s; ► of the economy. Complete statistical detail cover ing labor force, output, productivity, and em ployment in over 250 individual industries and detailed occupations is presented in the appendix tables. Further publications and articles to follow in late spring, will present more refined analysis and more detailed information on the various methodologies followed. advancing steadily if at a slightly slower pace than in the 1960’s, will have increased 3 percent a year; ► bls industry employment will have continued The econom y in 1980 BACKGROUND OF T H E P R O JEC TIO N S, ASSU M PTIO NS, AND TEC H N IQ U ES th ree d e c a d e s , the Bureau of Labor Sta tistics has been making economic projections to F or to shift toward the service industries, including trade and government; and ► occupational employment will have con tinued a long-term shift towards the white-collar occupations and those requiring the most educa tion and training. B y themselves the projections summarized in this report do not represent sharp departures from the broad economic and manpower trends that prevailed during the 1960’s. And yet, more people, more growth, more goods and services, even if in determine the N ation’s manpower requirements. Following the recommendation of a Presidential Advisory Committee on Education in 1938, the Bureau’s initial program was set up to conduct studies of projected employment trends and out look b y occupation for the career guidance of young people and for the use of educators re sponsible for planning programs of vocational education or training. A s the decade of the 1970’s begins, the Bureau’s projections, now used for a line with recent trends, could have cumulative effects that m ay make the 1970’s quite different wide variety of planning and policy development purposes, represent one of the longest continuous from the 1960’s. Moreover, m any crosscurrents within the total m ay yield some quite dissimilar trends from the 1960’s for smaller segments of the systematic efforts to make economic projections both in and out of Government. In today’s growing and complicated society it economy. is not enough to know simply that the Nation 1 384-657 will need 100 million jobs for 100 million workers United States will no longer be fighting a war, but, by on the other hand, a still guarded relationship between the major powers will permit no major reductions in armaments. This would still permit 1980. One must know what kinds of jobs? W h a t skills? W h a t industries? H ow will job requirements change as a result of technology? W h a t will worker characteristics be— age, sex, educational attainment? Only this kind of infor mation about tomorrow’s manpower requirements will equip private and public policy to take the measures to assure a reasonable balance between workers and jobs, between the N ation ’s demand some reduction from the peak levels of defense expenditures during the Viet N a m conflict. ► A r m e d F orces strength will drop back to about the same level that prevailed in the pre-Viet N am escalation period. ► T h e in stitu tion a l fr a m e w o r k o f the A m e r ic a n eco n o m y will not change radically. for and supply of workers. T o meet these needs, the Bureau has developed and refined its projections so that they now trends will continue, including values placed on encompass several work, education, income, and leisure. permit comprehensive a integrated components view of that tomorrow’s economy and its manpower needs. Specifically, ► E c o n o m ic, social, technological, a n d scientific ► F isc a l a n d m o n eta ry 'policies will be able to achieve a satisfactory balance between low un the projections cover labor force, hours of em employment ployment, output per man-hour, potential demand (gross national product or g n p ) , the composition without reducing the long-term economic growth rate. rates and relative price stability of demand, output and productivity b y 82 de ► A l l levels o f govern m en t will join efforts to tailed industry groups, and employment in over meet a wide variety of domestic requirements, but Congress will channel more funds to State and local governments. 250 industries and in detailed occupations. The projections are interrelated: the growth of gnp , a foundation of the projections, is conditioned upon labor supply, productivity ► E ffo r ts to solve the p roblem s p o se d b y a ir an d changes, and w ater p ollu tion a n d solid w aste d isp osa l, although hours of work. The rate and direction of changes in the major demand components of the g n p , in they m ay preempt an increasing amount of the turn, yield changing requirements for labor by industry and occupation. In this bulletin on the economy and its manpower requirements in 1980, the projections are often described categorically— “ The labor force N ation’s productive resources, will not lead to a significant dampening of our longrun potential rate of growth. ► F er tility rates w ill be low er than they have been in the recent past. will expand by x percent b y 1980” ; “ The gross na tional product will expand by y percent a year.” The intent is to show the results emerging from the Bureau’s research that seem m ost likely to occur but in all cases— even though the state ments m ay be stated categorically for ease in presentation— they represent the Bureau’s best judgment and are dependent on the realization of the various assumptions on which the projec tions rest. Projection techniques Labor force and occupational projections cover the period 1968 to 1980 because 1968 was the most recent year for which complete data were available at the time of the calculations. All other projections — gnp, hours, productivity, aggregate and industry demand, and industry employment— are based from 1965 because the next 3 years (1966 to 1968) were substantially affected by the demands of the Viet N a m war. Since it is assumed that these hostilities will be over by Assumptions 1980, recent changes related to the impact of the Viet N a m war were considered to be atypical and The b l s projections about the world of 1980 discussed in this bulletin are based on these unlikely to be characteristic of the years ahead. Growth rates, in most cases, are shown not specific assumptions: ► T h e in tern ation al clim ate will improve. The only for 1 965-80, but also for 19 6 8 -8 0 to reflect the impact of the intervening years. Since the 2 article was written, however, some 1969 data have a somewhat higher rate, 4 percent. Projections become available. Because a slackening of growth at the lower rate are based on the assumption in the economy occurred during 1969, the that b y 1980 the country will have been able to gnp would have to grow at the rate of 4.4 percent a develop a mix of public and private policies that year for the period can 196 9 -8 0 , rather than 4.3 assure such a low rate without creating percent as shown for the 1968-80 period, to reach the 1980 projected levels. Similarly, productivity would have to grow at 3.2 percent a year rather than the 3.0 percent shown. Projected employment inflationary pressures. Since the same structure of the economy for 1980 has been assumed for both the 3-percent and the 4-percent unemployment projections, the proportionate distribution of growth remains unchanged at 1.7 percent a year. T h e labor fo r c e p rojection , based on the Bureau on the Census projections of population, is devel employment among major industry and occupa tional sectors is virtually the same for both oped through separate projections of labor force participation for the various age, sex, and color projections except that all industries would have a slightly higher level of employment under the groups in the population. The detailed participa 3-percent unemployment assumption. I t is recog nized that this assumption m ay be an oversimpli tion rates are then applied to the projected levels fication; however, the magnitude of the difference in each population group. in employment that would result from a more T h e econom ic grow th p rojection s are developed discriminating set of assumptions for pinpointing in consultation with the Interagency Committee on Economic Growth, which consists of represent in the unemployment level would be quite minor atives of the U .S . Department of Labor, the U .S. except for relatively few industries or occupations. Department of Commerce, The discussion in this article will be limited to the Bureau of the the employment difference of a 1-percent change Budget, and the President’s Council of Economic the 3-percent unemployment assumptions. Tables, Advisors. These projections have benefited from however, show industry data for both alternatives. the advice of— and have utilized the research I n d u s tr y and occu pation al em p lo ym en t p ro jec product of— several other government agencies and private research organizations that also par ticipate in the Interagency Growth Studies Pro tio n s — the end product of labor force gram. The input-output tables developed by the U .S . Department of Commerce’s Office of Business employment, which includes wage and salary workers, unpaid fam ily workers, and the self- Economics provide the basic framework for the growth projections. employed, is obtained by calculations involving projected changes in demand, interindustry rela T o explore the implications of alternative growth rates and patterns, two different demand struc tionships, and output and productivity. The employment projections are initially developed tures of the economy are presented in this article: one is based upon a continuation of the long-term shift toward the purchase of more consumer and public services. The other assumes a slower growth in the trend toward services with correspondingly greater emphasis on durable goods production: Consumer, producer, and military. B oth these demand structures start with approximately the same level of potential output in 1980; the differ ences lie only in the composition of final demand and its related components. Specific differences for about 82 industries or industry groups, cover ing the entire economy. The employment esti mates are also distributed into much greater industry detail (about 250 industries) b y using regression analysis to estimate employm ent in each industry consistent with the basic assump tions of the economic projections. The results of the two methods are carefully analyzed and rec onciled for consistency. Finally, the employment projections are converted into estimates of occupa are spelled out in later sections of the article. occupational W ithin each set of demand projections, two alternative assumptions are outlined regarding which, when combined with the industry employ and eco nomic growth projections, are arrived at b y utilizing two projection techniques. T otal industry tional requirements by projecting industry by detailed industry, ment estimates, yield the final product of the the unemployment rate: one assumes a 3-percent entire unemployment rate by 1980; the other assumes estimates. patterns, sequence of projections— occupational 3 (For a discussion of the uses to which the final goods and services produced— gross national detailed projections of industry and occupational product ( g n p ) . For purposes of the employment projections, the value of the total national output of goods and services is derived by projecting to 1980 the size of the work force, hours of work, are put, see the M o n th ly Labor R ev iew , Novem ber 1969, p. 20.) bls economic and the dollar value of goods and services produced The econom y in 1980 P R O D U C TIVITY AND GROSS N A TIO N A L PRODUCT in each hour worked, referred to as output per man-hour or productivity. Arrived at in this way, b l s projections indicate the potential value of all goods and services produced in 1980 m ay reach $1.4 trillion in 1968 dollars. If prices were to rise at the rate of 2.5 percent a year through the 1970’s as they did through the 1960’s, the projections of economic growth, the anticipated number of people in the Nation potential and the proportion working or seeking work must 1980 dollars rather than $1.4 dollars. B efore m a k in g be estimated. A s consumers, they provide the potential demand for the N ation’s goods and serv gnp would be $1.8 trillion in estimated trillion in 1968 ices. As workers, they are also an essential element In 1968 the economy produced goods and serv ices valued at $866 billion. Output of $1.4 trillion in the production of goods and services. by 1980 implies a growth rate of 4.3 percent a year Expected labor force over the time span from 196 8 -8 0 . Although very healthy, this potential growth rate allows for some slowdown in the economy from its performance of B y 1980, 100 million Americans will be in the 4.5 percent growth a year during the 1 9 6 0 -6 8 labor force, if Bureau of Labor Statistics projec period. This apparent slowdown is not due to a tions materialize, one-fifth more (22.4 percent) than the 1968 labor force of 82 million. reduction in the potential growth rate, which is The working age population can be projected with more confidence than some of the other variables in economic projections since everyone who will be old enough to work during the 1970’s has been born already, and death rates and net immigration are fairly steady. The U .S . Bureau based on the assumption of the full utilization of labor and industrial resources, but to the actual growth in the 1960’s, which was based, in part, on taking up the slack in resource utilization which existed in the early part of the decade. of the Census projects about 167 million people of working age (16 and over) in 1980, and b l s projects the labor force participation rate of these people to increase only slightly between 1968 and 1980. Thus, the decade of the 1970’s will see increases in both population and the proportion of work-age people seeking jobs, but by far the largest contributor to labor force growth will be population expansion itself: 94 percent of the H o u r s o f w o r k . Average weekly hours 1 have been declining for several years. From 1957 to 1965, hours declined at a rate of 0.2 percent a year for all private industry. The decline in hours, projected over the 1 968-80 period, slows this rate of decline somewhat to 0.1 percent per year. In the early postwar period, the decline in hours resulted, to a considerable extent, from a reduction in the scheduled workweek. In later years, how ever, the increasing proportion of part-time em growth in the labor force will be attributable to a bigger population, with the remaining 6 percent ployees contributed more to the decline than changes in the scheduled workweek. During the caused by the expected increase in the participa years from 1956 to 1968, for example, when em tion rate. ployment was growing by 1.5 percent per year, Growth, hours, productivity growth rate of 5.7 percent per year. The significant part-time employment was speeding along at a increase in part-time employment is due to (a) the The m ost commonly used comprehensive mea rapid growth in employment in the service and sure of output in the economy is the value of all retail trade industries where part-time em ploy- 4 ment is common and (b) a companion increase in the proportion of part-time workers used by these For projection purposes, government hours are held constant. industries and the availability of individuals inter ested in part-time work. For example, the mush rooming of suburban shopping centers that have m any branch stores and mall shops has contributed to the expansion of the part-time work force. These centers are both growing rapidly and using an increasing proportion of part-time sales personnel as they stay open later in the evening. Part-time employees represented 6.8 percent of the total employed labor force in 1956; by 1968, this pro portion had increased to 11.1 percent; b y 1980, it is expected to be even larger. This projected decline in average hours assumes that labor and management will not be negotiating major reductions in the nonfarm workweek by 1980. The continuing decline in hours will be caused by the persistent increase in part-time employment plus a continued small reduction of the average workweek on the farm. The trend in hours will differ among farm and nonfarm in dustries, and government. O n the f a r m , hours o f w ork are expected to decline to lf.3.7 a w eek b y 1 9 8 0 , or b y 0 .2 p ercen t a n n u a lly, on the average, through the 1970’s (1 9 6 8 -8 0 ), reflecting a longtime downward trend. Hours were 44.8 per week in 1968 and 45.7 in 1965, the base year for the projection period, just before the Viet N am escalation. O ff the fa r m , exclu din g governm ent, hours p a id f o r are expected to con tin u e to decline to 3 7 .8 a week b y 1 9 8 0 , or b y 0 .1 p ercen t a yea r through the 1970’s (1 9 6 8 -8 0 ). This rate of decline is somewhat less than has occurred since the m id-1950’s. A ll non farm hours were 38.1 a week in 1968, and 39.0 a week in 1965. In the goods-producing industries, except agri culture, hours paid for began to climb in 1964 after several steady years. The upward trend was caused primarily by an increase in overtime hours. This trend has now reversed and through the 1970’s hours in the goods-producing industries are expected to be relatively stable. In the service industries, on the other hand, hours paid for declined steadily from the end of P r o d u c t iv it y in m ajo r sectors One . of the most important elements in making projections, productivity, can be quite different among in dustries and quite different from year to year. Productivity patterns have been and are expected to be different in each of the major industry groups through the 1970’s (1 9 6 8 -8 0 ). F a rm p ercen t p rod u ctivity a yea r. grow th w ill Productivity be high gains at 5 .7 have been very high in recent decades because of more efficient machinery and improved fertilizers, farming techniques, and management practices. Traditionally, gains in farm output per man hour, although fluctuating widely from year to year, have been high. Through the 1970’s it m ay increase, on the average, about 5.7 percent annually, somewhat less than the 6-percent rise annually in recent years. B u t even at this lower average rate, the increases in farm output per man-hour are expected to remain considerably above that of the nonfarm sector. N o n fa r m p rod u ctivity w ill advance stea d ily at 2 .9 percen t a y ea r. Even though nonfarm productivity is expected to advance through the 1970’s at about its long-term rate, individual industries within the broad nonfarm sector m ay deviate from their past productivity rates. The average rate projected will permit productivity increases that are greater than recent increases in some industries counter balanced by productivity change in other indus tries that will be lower than recent trends would suggest. P ro d u c tiv ity ga in s f o r both f a r m an d n on fa rm in d u stries com bin ed w ill drop a little to 3 percen t a yea r through the 1 9 7 0 ’s ( 1 9 6 8 - 8 0 ) . The combined effect of these differing rates of gain in produc tivity for farm and nonfarm workers— 5.7 percent and 2.9 percent, respectively— averages out to an overall increase in productivity in the economy of roughly 3 percent annually through the 1970’s, a smaller growth rate than the long-term postwar increase of 3.4 percent a year (1 9 4 7 -6 8 ). W orld W a r I I to 1968. Trade and services are G overnm ent p rod u ctivity is a ssu m ed at a constant expected to continue a decline, though at a more level through the 1970’s, because of the difficulty modest rate, through the 1970’s. of measuring the real output of government.2 5 Table 1. Gross national product by major component, selected years and projected to 1980 [In billions o f 1968 dollars] 1980 Services econom y Durables econom y 1968 1965 1957 Component Percent distribution 1957 4 percent unem ployment rate 3 percent unem ploym ent rate 4 percent unem ployment rate $ 1 ,4 2 7 .8 903.2 137.6 3 46 .5 419.1 $ 1 ,4 1 5 .7 895.6 136.5 343.6 415 .5 $ 1 ,4 2 9 .6 8 8 8 .9 146.8 3 3 5 .0 407.1 $ 1 ,4 1 7 .7 8 8 1 .4 145.5 332 .2 403.7 5 2 .5 16.6 238 .9 160.4 6 0.7 1 7.8 2 3 7 .0 159.1 6 0 .2 17.7 140.7.1 .2 1 .4 ss national product........... ............ ......................................... Personal consum ption expenditures.................................. Durable goods_____ ______________ _______________ Nondurable goods............... .............................. ............. Services_____________ _____________ _______________ $553.8 342 .8 4 2.9 162.4 137.5 $754.3 4 7 2 .0 Gross private dom estic investm ent.................................... Nonresidential.........- ...................................................... Residential structures_____ ____ ________ _________ Net inventory change____________________________ 8 3 .6 56.1 2 6 .2 1 .3 118.9 7 8 .0 3 0.9 126.3 3 0 .2 7 .3 152.3 5 3 .0 16.7 7 .7 7 .9 2 .5 12.9 1 2.9 1 2.9 1 2.9 119.7 6 5 .2 5 4 .5 155.5 73.1 8 2 .4 200.3 9 9 .5 100.7 289 .7 107.3 182.4 287.1 106.4 180.7 288.9 125.9 163.0 286 .4 124.9 161.5 Net exports....................................................................... — Government purchases.......................................................... Federal...................... ...................................................... State and lo ca l___________ _______________________ $865.7 536.6 8 3 .3 230.6 68.8 209.1 194 1 222.8 88.8 10.0 1965 3 percent unem ploym ent rate 222.0 2151.0 20.1 1968 100.0 100.0 100.0 15.1 15.8 1 0.3 4 .1 1 .3 1 4.6 1 0.3 3 .5 6 1 .9 7 .7 2 9.3 2 4 .8 6 2 .6 9 .1 2 7.7 2 5.7 1.0 290.7.6 2111.6 .8 9 .8 10.9 6 2 .0 9 .6 2 6 .6 2 5.7 .8 .3 2 3.1 1 1.5 11.6 This assumption can have a big influence on what happens to average productivity in the 1970’s. Differences are assumed in the pace of change, however, among the component pur coming years. Since government employment is chasers of the g n p . These changes are shown in detail in table 1. T o simplify this overview of expected to rise substantially, and its productivity, arbitrarily, is held constant, the increase in overall productivity is lower than the projected growth the projections developed by the bls , the initial in output per man-hour in the private sector alone. If government employment were to expand discussion will be limited to projections based on the assumption of a continuation in the pace of the shift towards services in an economy with 3 - beyond percent of the projected productivity levels, growth, of this dampening course, would be these unemployment. projections are The extent modified in to which alternative accentuated. (See chart 1.) views of the economy will be summarized at the end of each section. Purchasers o f the GNP c o n s u m p t io n e x p e n d it u r e s . B y fa r the largest purchasers of the g n p are consumers. In 1980 they are expected to spend close to $900 billion on goods and services, more than the total value of the g n p in 1968 which was $ 8 6 6 billion. Consumer expenditures consist of three major subcategories— durable goods, nondurable goods, P ersonal The projected 1980 g n p of $1.4 trillion will be divided among four major categories of final demand: Consumption, investment, government purchases, and foreign purchases. The changes that lie ahead in the composition of the total gnp m ay tell a great deal about the kinds of industries— the kinds of production— and ulti m ately, the kinds of jobs that will be available in 1980. The mix of demand as between the services and durable goods economies becomes significant and services. B y 1980, durable goods and services expenditures will be higher as a proportion of total pce than at any time in the post-W orld W a r period in all projections. In contrast to the up ward surge in expenditures for durables and services, the proportionate share of nondurable at this point in the level of projection detail. goods will be smaller than in any recent year; Both and durable goods— reflect a continuation of the their rate of growth over this period will be the slowest of the three groups and about in line past with the historical trend. bls structures of the economy— services trend in 6 aggregate demand through the Table 1. Continued— Gross national product b y major component, selected years and projected to 1980 [In dollars] Average annual rates of change, 1965-80 Percent distribution Services economy 1980 Durables economy 1980 Services economy Durables economy Average annual rates of change, 1968-80 Services economy Durables economy Component 3 per cent un employ ment rate 4 per cent un employ ment rate 3 per cent un employ ment rate 4 per cent un employ ment rate 3 per cent un employ ment rate 4 per cent un employ ment rate 3 per cent un employ ment rate 4 per cent un employ ment rate 3 per cent un employ ment rate 4 per cent un employ ment rate 3 per cent un employ ment rate 4 per cent un employ ment rate 100.0 6 3 .3 9 .6 2 4 .3 2 9 .4 100.0 6 3 .3 9 .6 2 4.3 2 9.3 100.0 6 2.2 10.3 2 3.4 2 8 .5 100.0 6 2.2 10.3 23.4 2 8.5 4 .3 4 .4 4 .7 3 .4 5 .2 4 .3 4 .4 4 .7 3 .4 5 .2 4 .4 4 .3 5 .2 3 .2 5.1 4 .3 4 .3 5 .1 3 .1 5 .0 4 .3 4 .4 4 .3 3 .4 5 .4 4 .2 4 .4 4 .2 3 .4 5 .3 4 .3 4 .3 4 .8 3 .2 5 .2 4 .2 4 .2 4 .8 3 .1 5.1 15.5 10.7 3 .7 1.2 15.5 10.7 3 .7 1 .2 16.7 11.2 4 .2 1.2 16.7 11.2 4 .2 1 .2 4 .3 4 .6 3 .7 3 .5 4 .2 4 .5 3 .6 3 .4 4 .8 4 .9 4 .6 3 .9 4 .7 4 .9 4 .5 3 .9 4 .8 4 .6 4 .8 7.1 4 .7 4 .5 4 .7 7.1 5 .5 5.1 6 .0 7 .7 5 .4 5 .0 5 .9 7 .7 .9 .9 .9 .9 3 .3 3 .3 3 .3 3 .3 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.7 2 0.2 8 .8 11.4 4 .2 2 .6 5 .4 4 .2 2 .5 5 .4 4 .2 3 .7 4 .7 4 .2 3 .6 4 .6 3 .1 .6 5.1 3 .0 .6 5 .0 3.1 2 .0 4.1 3 .0 1.9 4 .0 2 0 .3 7 .5 12.8 2 0.3 7 .5 1 2.8 2 0 .2 8 .8 11.4 One of the major causes of the upsurge in the purchase of durables will be increased purchases of furniture and household equipment. Large expenditures for these items will come from the increasing number of new families that will be forming as many of the large number of young people born in the early post-World War II years set up housekeeping. In contrast, nondurable expenditures for food and beverages and clothing and shoes are projected to continue to decline as a proportion of total p c e in line with the longrun historical trend. Higher consumer expenditures for services will reflect the rapid growth of expen ditures for medical care, private education, and recreation. Despite varying rates of growth, the dollar value of all categories of personal consump tion expenditures will be higher in 1980 than it is today. (See chart 2.) G o v e r n m e n t . B y 1980, governments are expected to be spending more than they are today to attack domestic problems that defy individual solution. The Federal Government may participate directly in some programs, but more funds are projected to be channeled to State and local governments than at present through grants-in-aid. Government purchases at all levels under the services economy are expected to rise to about $289.7 billion in 1980, up from $200 billion in 1968. Nonetheless, the government proportion of Gross national product. Personal consumption expenditures. Durable goods. Nondurable goods. Services. Gross private domestic investment. Nonresidential. Residential structures. Net inventory change. Net exports. Government purchases. Federal. State and local. all g n p expenditures will decline somewhat— to 20.3 percent in 1980 in the services economy, down from 23.1 percent in 1968. These declines are largely a reflection of the projected cut in defense spending; and they mask an accompanying in crease in State and local governmental expendi tures. In fact, total nondefense purchases, for Federal, State, and local governments combined, are projected to increase more than three-fourths from 1968 to 1980. Federal purchases by 1980 are expected to be $107.3 billion in a services economy. They were $99.5 billion in 1968. If the projected expenditures materialize by 1980, the Federal share of g n p will be 7.5 percent, down from 11.5 percent in 1968. B u t if these 1980 Federal expenditures are com pared with 1965, before the escalation of the Viet Nam war, the decline from 1965 is smaller—from 9.7 percent of g n p —because of lower defense expenditures at that time. Defense expenditures are projected to decline by 1980, reflecting the assumption that the Viet Nam hostilities will be over and the numbers in the Armed Forces will be lower than they are today. If the Viet Nam hostilities cool off, as is assumed, expenditures to meet domestic needs are expected to grow. Funds may be directed at a greater rate than during the 1960’s into housing and com munity development, educational improvements, and the expansion of social welfare programs. 7 These expenditures, of course, depend upon a continuation of congressional appropriations for legislation recently enacted and concerned with health, education, conservation, pollution and poverty. The projected Federal spending reflects only direct Federal purchases of goods and services, but many Federal costs show up elsewhere. For example, increased costs of medicare and many of the increased costs of environmental control will show up in the projected increases in consumer expenditures or business investment and increased public education costs will be reflected in increased State and local government expenditures, even though the funds may come from the Federal Government. State and local governments are expected to benefit from both an increase in the Federal funds Chart 1. Projected productivity, by major sector, private economy, 1968-80 m — m ib i > ; m m m m - i ; Actual Employment 1 96 8 0 Average annual rate of change 1.0 8 2 .0 3 .0 4 .0 5.0 6.0 - earmarked to help solve domestic problems at the State and local levels and increased revenues from higher tax collections. Reflecting this increased income, purchases are projected to rise in the services economy to the unprecedented height of $182.4 billion, up from $100.7 billion spent in 1968 and exceeding projected purchases by the Federal Government by nearly 70 percent. The State and local government share of g n p will rise from 11.6 percent in 1968 to 12.8 percent in the services economy in 1980. Education takes the lion’s share of funds at the State and local levels, and its share will continue about the same in 1980. State governments usually pay for public higher education, and local governmental units pay the m ajor share of public elementary and secondary education costs. Fol lowing the strain of rapid increases in the number of students in recent years, elementary school enrollments will begin to decline in the early 1970’s, and secondary school enrollments will show a significantly slower expansion. Nonetheless, expenditures will continue to rise as school boards look to quality improvement. Little letup in pressures in higher education enrollment is seen for 1980 in public institutions despite a slowdown in population growth. Compared with the 1960’s, a larger proportion of college-age people are expected to attend both community junior colleges and State universities. Environmental control measures are expected to command a steadily increasing share of State and local expenditures as public concern about ecological health and safety accelerates. Some of the costs of these improvements will be met by higher tax revenues and others will be borne by the consumer through increased prices. Highway construction and maintenance, which account for about one-fifth of all State and local government expenditures today, are expected to rise steadily in the 1970’s. State and local govern ments together are responsible for ownership and maintenance costs of approximately 96 percent of the highway mileage; the Federal Government, the remainder. The Interstate Highway Program scheduled for completion in the mid-1970’s will have added 41,000 miles of highway since the passage of the legislation in 1956. This additional mileage must be maintained by State and local governments. Government activities concerned with urban renewal, redevelopment, and rehabilitation asso ciated with the central cities all will require greater expenditures for construction and capital equipment. New low-income housing and urban transit also will require heavy expenditures. Public health, hospitals, and sanitation may require large additional expenditures. Widespread citizen concern for health care and additional Federal funding undoubtedly will lead to the development of many facilities for health care such as regional health centers, community mental health facilities, nursing homes, and establish ments to aid the physically and mentally handi capped. Conservation and development of natural and agricultural resources, including the operation of parks and recreational activities, are expected to require expanded expenditures in the coming years. Although a relatively small part of total State and local government costs, expenditures on parks and recreation will be among the fastest growing areas in terms of expenditures of all State and local functions. Spending for new plants is expected to grow more slowly than spending for equipment because the rate of construction growth for certain kinds Chart 2. Differences in demand structure in a services economy and in a durables economy, 1980 (both 3- and 4-percent unemployment levels) Services economy GNP: $1.4 trillion (in 1968 dollars) G r o s s p r i v a t e d o m e s t i c i n v e s t m e n t . B y 1980, business investment may total $222.0 billion, up from $126.3 billion in 1968. This investment would result in a slight increase in the proportion ate share of g n p , from 14.6 percent in 1968 to 15.5 percent in 1980 in a services economy. Durable goods economy GNP: $1.4 trillion (in 1968 dollars) Other durables 1 N e w housing expenditures are expected to double in value to $53 billion by 1980, according to the services structure. Housing expenditures were $30.2 billion in 1968. The need for housing is expected to command a great deal of national attention in the coming decade because of the strong demand arising from the need to improve living conditions in the ghettos, the large and growing numbers of young adults who will need housing—often apartments—for their new fami lies, and the large number of retired persons seeking shelter in multiunit retirement develop ments. P lant and equipment expenditures by business may rise to $152.3 billion by 1980 in the services economy, up from $88.8 billion in 1968. These expenditures are expected to account for roughly two-thirds or more of all gross private domestic investment in the services economy. ] Nondurable goods and services 1 Includes net exports and government purchases. 2 Includes government compensation and household services. 9 3 8 4 -6 5 7 0 — 7 0 --------3 Table 2. Distribution of gross product originating,1 by m ajor sector, 1965, 1968, projected to 1980 [Percent distribution] 1980 1965 Major sector Agriculture, forestry, fisheries........... ............... ............. ........................ .................................................. Manufacturing.............................................................................................................................................. Transportation, communications, and public utilities.......... ........................................................................ Wholesale and retail trade___________________________________ _______ _________________________ Finance, insurance, and real estate-------------------------------------------- --------------------- - ............ ................. Services, including household services---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Government, including government enterprises............. .......... .................................................................. 1 Gross product originating is the value added by each sector to the total product. Distribution at 4-percent unemployment is identical. 1968 Services economy— 3 percent unemploymentz Durables economy— 3 percent unemployment2 100.0 100.0 100.0 100 0 3.7 1. 7 5.1 28.2 8.2 lb. 5 13.4 11.0 12.1 3.1 1.6 4.6 28.5 8.5 16.5 13.5 11.0 12.4 2.9 1. 4 4.8 27.8 9.5 17.0 14.8 11.4 10.2 2.8 14 4 9 28.8 9.5 17.0 14.5 11.1 9.9 NOTE: Detail may not add to total. 2 of institutional and utility building and railroads and farm structures is expected to be slow. Indus trial building expenditures will not quite match the increases in equipment purchases, reflecting the historical downtrend in the ratio of plant to equipment expenditures. Through the 1970’s a large gain is expected, however, in the construction of office buildings, hospitals, and social and recreational centers. The net change in inventories —raw materials, semifinish goods, and finished goods—is estimated to total 1.2 percent of the 1980 output of $16.7 billion in the services economy—well over double the 1968 level of inventories. N et f o r e ig n p u r c h a s e s o f g o o d s a n d s e r v Net exports are expected to increase five fold by 1980 to about $13 billion in 1980, according to the projections for a services economy. ic e s C . o m p o n e n t p u r c h a s e r s in a d u r a b l e s g o o d s Although the assumptions in the dura bles projection that affect the real g n p growth rate are very similar to the services projection, the composition of demand shows the following differences: (1) Total personal consumption ex penditures would be lower as a proportion of total gross national product, but durable goods would be a significantly higher proportion than in the services projection, and both nondurable goods and services would be somewhat lower. (2) Gross private domestic investment in the durable goods projection would be a slightly higher proportion of g n p . Each of the subcomponents of fixed investment would also be higher: Non e c o n o m y residential structures, producers’ durable equip ment, and residential structures. The residential structures component, however, is proportionately higher than the other components of investment. The level of residential structure assumed in a durables economy is sufficiently high to encompass achievement of the housing goals of 26 million new dwelling units by 1978 and assumes a larger proportion of single family housing units. Federal Government purchases are higher in a durables economy on the assumption of greater expenditures for military hardware. State and local government expenditures are lower, however, so that the proportion of g n p devoted to Govern ment in the durables projection is similar to that found in the services economy. Even though the State and local government proportion of g n p in the durables economy is lower than in the services economy State and local government in the former would still grow faster than g n p or Federal purchases. . 10 Industry output After determining the potential size of the g n p and its principal component purchasers, the in dustrial outlines of 1980’s economy emerge through a series of interrelated steps that involves translating the g n p into specific goods and services purchased, such as food, clothing, rent, auto mobiles, drugs, cosmetics, and medical expenses. These purchases of specific goods and services are then allocated to 82 producing industries by the application of a variety of techniques and tools, different for each of the component pur chasers of the g n p . The final demand of the 82 producing industries is traced back to all the other industries that contributed either directly or indirectly to this final production through the use of an input-output table; that is, a table used to identify the industry origins of all the goods and services that go into the production of a final product. The great value of this kind of analysis to manpower planners is that it permits detailed analysis of the employment repercussions—or the ripple effect—of changes in demand in one in dustry on all others. For example, a change in the level of highway or school construction will affect not only employment in the construction industry but also in the steel industry and then in the iron ore industry. To determine both the direct and indirect effects on employment of a change in expenditures for school or highway construction requires knowledge of (a) what each industry in the economy buys from every other industry to produce its products (input-output relationships) and (b) what employment requirements are per dollar of output for each industry (productivity). When each of these elements is projected to the target year, it becomes possible to trace the impact on employment of the projected purchases of final goods and services back along the entire chain of production, transportation, and distribution. Projections have been developed for the output in 82 industries, but this article will deal with these output projections aggregated into major sectors: Manufacturing, mining, and so on, converted into the value of the gross product originating, or Table 3 . value added terms, rather than the value of total output to avoid double counting materials and intermediate services. In general, these industry sector projections con tinue long-term past trends except for a halt in the downward slide in construction's share of total output. The distribution of sector output over time has shown agriculture, mining, and construction declining steadily in relation to total output; transportation and public utilities, finance, insurance, and real estate gaining in re lation to total output; and manufacturing, trade, and services staying roughly the same (chart 3). Agriculture’s share of total output will decline by 1980 to just below 3 percent in both the services and durables projections. I t was 3.1 percent in 1968. (See tables 2 and 3.) Although consumer food purchases through the 1970’s are expected to increase—more people, more demand for food— their proportionate share of total personal consumption expenditures ( p c e ) is declining. As the housewife buys more canned, frozen, or precooked food, which has been proc essed in some other way, the value added to the product by the manufacturing industry expands while the farm share declines. M anu factu rin g’s share of total output will con tinue at roughly 28 percent in 1980; it was 28.5 percent in 1968. Dissimilar trends will prevail, however, for durable goods and nondurable goods. Over the long run, durables—consumer, producer, and military—have been increasing as a share of total demand; nondurables, mainly consumer purchases of food and clothing, have been declin ing. These trends are projected to extend to 1980 Gross product o rigina ting :1average annual rate of change, 1968-80 (projected) 1968-80 period Services economy M ajor sector 3 percent unemployment Agriculture, forestry, fisheries__________________________________ ______ - ... ... Construction_____________________________ . . . . . . . ................ _ .. . Manufacturing_________________ _____________________________________ . . __________ Transportation, communications, and public utilities_____________ _________________ Wholesale and retail tra d e .. _____1______________________________________________ Finance, insurance, and real estate_________________________________________________ > Gross product originating is the value added by each sector to the total product. Durables economy 4 percent unemployment 3 percent unemployment 4 percent unemployment 4 .3 4 .2 4 .3 4 .2 3 .4 3 .0 4 .7 4 .1 5 .3 4 .5 5.1 4 .6 2 .6 3 .3 2 .9 4 .6 4 .0 5 .2 4 .5 5 .0 4 .5 2 .5 3 .2 2 .9 4 .9 4 .4 5 .2 4 .6 4 .9 4 .3 2 .4 3 .1 2 .8 4 .8 4 .3 5 .2 4 .5 4 .8 4 .3 2 .3 NOTE: Detail may not add to total. 1 in both projections, but in the durable goods economy the upward trend for durables is, of course, accelerated. Transportation, communications, and public util will show a small increase in their share of total output through the 1970’s, in all projections, ities Chart 3. Average annual rates of growth in value of out put, 1968-80 (projected in 1968 dollars) rising from 8.5 percent in 1968— to about 9.5 percent in 1980. Finance, insurance, and real estate industries will increase their share of total output in 1980 to close to 14.5 percent, up from 13.5 percent in 1968. This increase will reflect the surge in housing expenditures by consumers, which are reported as purchases from the real estate industry in the form of rent and rental value of owned homes. Service industries will expand slightly as a pro portion of total output by 1980 to close to 11.5 percent. The anticipated increase in consumer expenditures for medical services will contribute to this increased share in the services economy. Trade will increase a little by 1980, to 17 percent of total output in a service economy. It was 16.5 percent in 1968. Construction's share of total output will rise slightly to about 5 percent by 1980, up from 4.6 percent in 1968. This modest increase brings to a halt a long run, severe downtrend. The increase in the total value of production, will reflect rising State and local government needs, increasing housing requirements, and expanding investment in plants. M in in g will continue a slow decline in its share of total demand through the 1970’s to about 1.4 percent in the services projection. It was 1.6 percent in 1968. G r o w t h in o u t p u t b y d e t a il e d i n d u s t r y . To project employment by detailed industry, it is necessary to shift emphasis from demand for the final products of industry to the value of all direct and indirect contributions to the final out put. The larger value of production—including the direct and indirect contributions to the final product—is called gross duplicated output. This value is eventually translated into employment by industry in the economic model. Appendix table 11 shows the average annual rate of growth in output for both services and durables economies at 3-percent unemployment. The rates among industries shown in the table range from a small decline to an increase that exceeds 10 percent a year compounded. In this latter case, such an increase would mean a more than doubling of gross duplicated output by 1980. For many industries, the growth rates are quite similar between the two different structures of demand. But, many industries in a durables 12 economy have a growth rate which deviates from that in the services economy. In a durables oriented economy, the durable goods industries of the manufacturing group will show a faster rate of growth in output than the same industries in a services economy. And the services industries will show a generally lower rate of growth in output. To simplify the text, the discussion of individual differences in growth rates that follows will be confined to the 3-percent, services model. The statistical information that will facilitate the same comparisons between past and future trends for the detailed industries on the durables model are in appendix table 14. The most rapidly growing industry in the coun try is the office, computing, and accounting machines industry. Computer production now dominates this industry. In the last 2 years, computer output has grown at the staggering rate of nearly 40 percent a year. Based on past performance, an expected growth of computer use in communications and data transmission and a possible introduction of the computer into the consumer marketplace, the projected rate of growth remains extremely high through 1980. Other industries that are expected to grow very rapidly during the 1970’s are optical, ophthalmic, and photographic equipment supplies (including photocopying equipment); electronic components and supplies; communications; plastics and syn thetic materials. Other industries that are also expected to have high growth rates through the 1970’s are electric, gas, water, and sanitary services; service industry machines (which in clude air-conditioning equipment); rubber and miscellaneous plastics products; business serv ices; radio, television, and communications equip ment; and chemical and fertilizer mining. All of these industries have experienced consistently high growth rates in the recent past. Some industries, however, are expected to show a change in their growth rate in the 1970’s so that it differs from their recent experiences. Industries whose rate o f growth in output is projected at least 1 percent higher than historical The coal industry is recovering somewhat from a very low rate of growth that has prevailed for many years. Demand from the international market is responsible for much of the improvement in the growth rate in this industry. Nuclear rates: energy is expected to take some of the coal market in the years to come so that the rate of growth for coal in the latter part of the projected period is expected to be slower than in the earlier part. New construction is expected to increase in the 1970’s because of demand for residential housing, the continued strength of State and local gov ernment construction, and strong demand from some segments of nonresidential construction, particularly commercial and office building construction. The industries that supply construction ma terials, particularly fabricated structural products, stone and clay building materials, construction machinery, and to some extent, the metals and lumber areas are expected to grow more rapidly through the 1970’s than in the recent past. This growth accompanies the expansion in new construction. The miscellaneous electrical machinery and supplies industry will expand because of the increasing use of batteries for a wide range of industrial and consumer applications. Transportation will grow faster than it has in the past because of a continuing increase in air travel, air cargo, and trucking. The amusement industry is projected to -grow because of increased leisure, higher consumer incomes, and the modest recovery underway in the movie industry. Industries whose rate o f growth is projected at least 1 percent a year lower than during the 1 9 5 7 -6 5 The synthetic fibres industry will grow more slowly than in the recent past, but this industry still will grow at an annual rate of nearly 7 percent through the 1970’s. The radio, television, and communications machinery industry will decline from its 1957-65 rate of 9 percent a year to a projected rate of just over 6 percent. The electronic components industry will decline from a 15-percent annual growth rate to between 8 and 9 percent for the 1970’s. This reflects the difficulty of sustaining extraordinarily high growth, and the slow growth projected in the purchases of electronics for defense needs. Nonetheless, the market potential remains strong for the products of this industry, including color television re ceivers and telephone equipment. period: 13 T ech n o lo g ica l ch a n g e Volume of production and output per worker are the elements most necessary to the projection of employment in American industry. Since out put per worker m ay be affected by technological changes in industry, these changes must also be taken into account before employment can be projected. The importance to attach to techno logical advance is a difficult judgment to make. Changes in productivity growth often are loosely attributed to our advancing technology. However, historical evidence suggests that other factors— economies of scale, the shift in employment in the service industries in which productivity is usually low—also are important influences on productivity and must be considered in any model of tomorrow’s economy. The widespread use of the electronic computer in the decade of the 1960’s will continue into the 1970’s. The computer has greatly facilitated the capacity of our economy to cope with the needs of its rapidly rising population. It is not only directly responsible for many changes in American industry, but it is intertwined in many other, less spectacular, production improvements. Bureau of Labor Statistics research indicates that the principal technology changes that are likely to affect the nature of work and worker output through the 1970’s are as follows: Computers will double in number by 1980. Numbering about 60,000 in 1969, computers are mushrooming in all branches of industry, business, and government. At least twice as many are expected to be in operation by 1980. They are widely used in most Federal Government offices and in most large establishments in the insurance, banking, aerospace, electrical machinery, and automobile industries. Many small businesses, for whom an installation has so far been uneconomical, will lease computer time from service centers. Time sharing of computer facilities, a relatively new development, will continue to spread rapidly. The extent to which computers will take over our working and thinking functions is still un certain. But, at a minimum in the years ahead, it is still likely that they will be used extensively for large-scale routine data processing operations such as accounting, billing, inventory control, production control and planning; many scientific and engineering functions; printing to speed preparation of control tapes which guide type 14 setting machines; storing and retrieving informa tion on crude petroleum and natural gas opera tions; designing and drafting new car models; scheduling operations in oil exploration and in construction; and numerical control of machine tools. Process computers are expected to increase sig B y 1980, nearly 10 times as many installations as in the mid-1960’s are expected to be using process computers, and the closed-loop type of computer control is expected to dominate the market. In the mid-1960’s, only about 1,700 process computers were in use. nificantly. The use o f instruments with delicate sensory capa Such instru ments will be designed for sensing, measuring, and acquiring d ata and for controlling tempera ture, flow, and other industrial processes. Their use will extend human sensory capabilities even further and open new possibilities for scientific advances and industrial automation. bilities will expand during the 1 9 7 0 ’s. Improvements in m achinery that do not involve departures fr o m conventional design will continue to be an important factor in raising productivity in many industries through the 1970’s. Faster operation, larger capacity, auto matic loading and unloading devices, and auto matic lubrication will reduce significantly the amount of labor required per unit of output in some factory operations. The integration of a number of separate operations into one large specialized machine is expected to become more common in industry than it is today. Greater mechanization is projected for many in dustries, particularly steel, textiles, meatpacking, printing, tire and tube manufacture, rail trans portation, and highway construction. drastic Faster, better communications will be among the important factors in the growth o f the economy over the next decade. D ata transmission, via telephone, is expected to become an important adjunct of electronic data processing. F ast copying machines, color television, color printing, video tape record ers, Polaroid color cameras, teaching machines, and new devices for speeding the mail will create many opportunities for new investment and employment growth. Prospects for high quality international com munications via satellites will be spectacular and the rapid growth of overseas telephone service will contribute to a large-scale expansion of international business operations. Advances in metalworking technology m a y mean a techniques. faster rate o f technological change in m a n y sectors The For example, metal-cutting and metal-forming tools will be improving con stantly. Numerical control and electrochemical and electrical discharge machining will become more widely used. A fairly rapid growth in the use of numerically controlled machines tools is expected over the next 5 to 10 years as its advan tages are better understood and as programing is simplified. The amount of labor saved per unit of output in machining operations could be substantial. E n e r g y and power innovations will develop. New sources of energy, more efficient generation of power, and new ways of transporting energy will continue to be developed to meet the increasing requirements of modern industry and urban society. vegetable o f the economy by 1980. Im proved long distance transportation system s B y 1980, practically all scheduled airlines will use high-speed, medium- and largesize jets. Research will result in improved airtraffic-control systems as will improvements in passenger related ground activities such as ticketing and baggage handling. More powerful diesel-electric railroad loco motives pulling specialized cars of increased capacity will haul longer trains at higher speeds and with greater loads. New developments in communications plus more widespread use of electronic control systems in classification yards and centralized traffic-control will facilitate rail traffic. Increased attention will be directed toward improving mass transportation in metropolitan areas. Motor trucks with more powerful engines and constructed of light-weight metals probably will increase the capacity of trailer trucks. In water transportation, faster ships will be built with more automatic controls. In addition, significant changes in ship design will heighten the trend toward use of shipping containers, there by reducing labor requirements in cargo handling. are in prospect. The ponents use in construction and fa ctory o f prefabricated com manufactured housing will significantly reduce the hours o f work on the site. In addition, increased building efficiencies will result from further improvements in earthmoving machinery, new portable and automatic hand tools, advances in paving materials and techniques, further standardization of construction materials and design, and new systematic scheduling use o f mechanical devices harvesting will expand fo r jr u ii rapidly and through 1 9 7 0 ’s. Mechanization will be most rapid among those crops which are grown for processing rather than for the fresh market. Research efforts are expected to develop new crop strains that are more easily harvested by mechanical means. the M edical services will benefit fro m the use of Computers will aid in diagnostic procedures and record keeping; automatic chemical analyzers will speed diagnosis and patient treatment, and electronic devices such as the heart pacemaker and pros thetics will replace defective body parts. computers and other electronic devices. Pollution control will benefit fr o m more effective which are needed to eliminate air pollutants from automobiles, airplanes, and in dustrial plants, to reduce pollution of lakes and rivers, and to handle the mounting debris of urban centers. control devices, P roductivity Change Projected change in output per man-hour in each industry is the final step in determining employment by industry. These projections are constructed on the basis of the estimated levels of industry output in 1980 and its past output and productivity behavior, taking account of the anticipated impact of technological innovations, as well as any structural change occurring within and between industries. Like the rate of growth in output among indus tries, the rate of productivity change differs from industry to industry. Technological breakthroughs do not occur simultaneously throughout industry, nor does investment follow a uniform pattern. Furthermore, the effects of both factors are slow to be reflected in productivity increases. If each industry’s projected productivity is compared with its projected output, the areas of employment growth and decline come into focus because of the close relationship between output and productivity change. For instance, two industries with high rates of productivity in crease—air transportation and coal mining—have had opposite employment experiences because of their different output situations. Productivity went up an average 8.3 percent a year in both industries between 1957 and 1966. In air trans portation, a rapid increase in output accompanied 15 productivity growth, and employment went up. In contrast, output in coal mining remained stable. In this instance, the increase in productivity reflected greater efficiency in the use of labor as a result of improved technology, and employment dropped. Clearly, productivity projections by them selves are not sufficient to identify industries where employment will grow or decline. Employ ment can increase in industries with either high or low productivity if output goes up enough, ju st as it can decrease in industries with either high or low productivity if output declines enough. Productivity projections for major industry groups show that the biggest increase in output per man-hour between 1965 and 1980—5.9 percent a year—should take place in agriculture. Since the beginning of the century agricultural employment has been dropping because of improved technology; this trend is expected to continue. The projected increase in output per man-hour for all nonagricultural industries is 2.8 percent a year. Productivity in manufacturing, transporta tion, trade, and finance, insurance, and real estate is expected to increase at about this rate. There are two major nonagricultural industry groups where the rate of output per man-hour increase is expected to be faster than in the other groups—mining, and communications and public utilities. The story in mining is the same as it has been for several years: A large productivity rate of increase accompanies a small increase in output with a drop in employment as the result. In the communications and public utilities group, the rate of productivity increase will be approximately the same as in mining, but the output situation will be radically different. Mining has the lowest projected rate of increase in output among non agricultural industries; communications and public utilities, the highest. Employment in the com munications and public utilities group, nontheless, will grow as improved technology permits these industries to extend their services to a growing population. Two other major industry groups have projected increases in output per man-hour that are lower than the average rate for nonagricultural indus tries—construction and services. In general, in dustries in both these groups are labor-intensive, and technological change has a more limited influence on productivity. 16 The construction industry—presently being encouraged to use more innovations in building techniques by Operation Breakthrough, a new program in the Department of Housing and Urban Development—may benefit from more intensive application of existing technology that would increase the output per man-hour. Already, prefabricated panels and shells for houses show promise of more widespread use. In the service industries because output is projected to grow rapidly, the slow rate of productivity growth means that the employment increase in this group will be larger than in any other group. Moving from major industry groups to specific manufacturing industries, the output per man hour projections bear out a basic notion of pro ductivity behavior—productivity increases are usually greatest in faster growing industries. Some of the highest rates of increase in output per man-hour are expected in industries making optical and photographic equipment; office ma chines and computers; radio, television, and communication equipment; and electronic com ponents and accessories. Plastics and chemicals are also growing industries and their productivity should increase rapidly too. (See appendix table 15.) Technology plays a big part in all these pro ductivity increases—large output increases bring only small increases in employment. Other in dustries with high projected rates of productivity growth—textiles and petroleum— anticipate slight declines in employment despite higher than average growth in output. These are older in dustries where technological improvements are still displacing unskilled and semiskilled labor. The economy in 1980 PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY AND OCCUPATION T h e k in d and l e v e l of m anpow er requ irem en ts of the 1970’s are intertw ined w ith the n atu re of the in d u strial changes th a t seem likely to occur over the decade. General trends and growth factors that are expected to affect industry employment in a services economy (with 3-percent unemployment) portation will increase fast enough to offset what ever further small railroad declines occur; an overall slow gain in employment is projected. Public utilities and communications are highly productive service industries. Hence, even though the services provided by these industries are ex pected to expand significantly—output has the highest projected rate of increase through the 1970’s among all nonfarm industries—employment will increase only moderately to 1980 and will decline as a proportion of total employment. through the 1970’s are described below for the major industry groups. (See chart 4.) S erv ice-p rod u cin g industries The most dramatic change in industry employ ment in recent years has been the employment shift towards service-producing industries. Shortly after the turn of this century, only 3 in every 10 workers were in service industries. B y 1950, the weight had shifted to just over 5 in every 10 in service industries; by 1968 the proportion had inched to 6 in every 10. In 1980, close to 7 in every 10 workers—or 68 million— are projected to be in service industries. (See table 4.) T r a n s p o r t a t io n , c o m m u n ic a t io n s , and T r a d e . The largest of the service industries, wholesale and retail trade, is interwoven through out the economic system in a network of wholesale and retail establishments. Trade employment changes are expected to parallel those of the whole economy and with trade’s relative share—onefifth—of total employment remaining about the same in 1980. Employment, however will rise from 16.6 million in 1968 to 20.5 million, in 1980. Retail trade employment will expand most rapidly in general merchandise stores and eating and drinking establishments. Technological de velopments such as vending machines, other self-service gadgets, and electronic computers for inventory control and billing will tend to retard employment growth. Wholesale trade employment will increase more rapidly than that of retail trade. Employment in motor vehicles, automotive equipment, and p u b l ic Employment in this group of industries is expected to increase to close to 5 million in 1980, up from 4.5 million in 1968. Despite this small employment gain, its share of total employment will decline from 5.6 percent in 1968 to 5 percent. Transportation employment has been dominated by the long, slow decline in railroad employment during the postwar period. Even though employ ment in trucking and air transportation has expanded, the decline in railroad employment has been severe enough to cause an overall decline in the average for all transportation industries. B u t a turn around is expected: trucking and air trans u t il it ie s . Table 4. Changes in total and wage and salary employment by industry sector, 1965 and 1968 (actual) and 1980 (projected for services and durable goods economies) [In thousands] 1980 1965 3-percent unemployment Industry sector Durables economy Services economy 1968 4-percent unemployment 3-percent unemployment 4-percent unemployment Wage Wage Wage Wage Wage Wage Total and and Total Total Total and Total Total and and and employ salary employ salary employ salary employ salary employ salary employ salary ment employ ment 1 employ ment employ ment employ ment employ ment employ ment1 ment 1 ment1 ment ment i ment1 GOODS PRODUCING Total_______ ____ _________________________ Manufacturing....................................... Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries_________________ ____ Construction.................................... Mining............... ...... ......... 27,786 18,454 4,671 3,994 667 26,401 18,062 4,521 3,186 632 78,975 20,125 4,154 4,050 646 27,657 19,768 4,012 3,267 610 31,618 22,358 3,188 5,482 590 30,115 21,935 3,030 4.600 550 31,200 22,133 3,156 5,427 584 22,809 21,712 3, 000 4,553 544 32,515 23,240 3,192 5,595 588 31,112 22,817 3,034 4,713 548 32,286 23,005 3,160 5,539 582 30,795 22,584 3,004 4,665 542 Total____ ____________________ . . . Services industries.................... Trade_________________ Transportation, communications, and public utilities. Finance, insurance, and real estate____ 46, 782 13,722 15,352 4,250 3,367 41,367 11,501 12,716 4,036 3,023 51,813 15,113 16,604 4,524 3,726 46, 449 12,826 14,081 4,313 3,383 67,982 21,080 20, 487 4,976 4,639 62, 085 18,660 17,625 4,740 4,260 67, 300 20,867 20, 282 4,926 4, 593 61,465 18,474 17,450 4,692 4,217 66,785 20, 585 20, 501 4, 961 4,538 60, 885 18,165 17,639 4,725 4,159 66,114 20,376 20,296 4,911 4,493 60,279 17,983 17,464 4,677 4,117 Government................ 10, 091 10, 091 11,846 11,846 16,800 16,800 16,632 16,632 16,200 16,200 16, 038 16,038 SERVICE PRODUCING 1 Except for agriculture which includes self-employed and unpaid family workers. 17 384-657 0 — 70------- 4 machinery equipment and supply will be among the faster growing areas. F in a n c e , in s u r a n c e , and r e a l e s t a t e . E m ployment in these industries is expected to increase at about the same rate as total employment each year through the 1970’s and to account for only a slightly larger share—4.7 percent—of total em ployment in 1980 than in 1968. Employment, however, will rise from 3.7 million in 1968 to 4.6 million in 1980. Banking employment is expected to grow at a slower pace than in the last decade as advancing automation eliminates many clerical functions. Electronic data processing equipment also is expected to slow employment growth in the security dealers and exchanges sector, a rapid growth area. Increase in the size of firms may also limit employment gains. Although restrained somewhat by the com puterization of recordkeeping functions, insurance employment will continue to grow at about the same pace as during the 1960’s because of the steadily rising population. Real estate employment will grow at a slightly faster pace than in the past decade: it is little affected by technological advances but highly responsive to the rising number of family formations. These industries, including private household employment, will increase their share of total employment by 1980, rising from 18.7 percent in 1968 to about 21 percent in 1980 and at a faster rate than total employment. Employ- S e r v ic e s . Chart 4. E m ploym ent1 trends in goods-producing and services-producing industries, 1947-68 (actual) and 1968-80 (projected for a services economy with 3-percent unemployment) Millions of workers Service producing Transportation and public utilities Trade Finance, insurance, and real estate Services Government Goods producing Manufacturing Contract construction Mining Agriculture 1980 1947 1Wage and salary workers only, except in agriculture, which includes 18 self-employed and unpaid family workers. ment will rise to 21 million in 1980, up from 15 million in 1968. Em ploym ent growth in this heterogenous group of service industries, which include personal, business, health, and educational services, will be related to a substantial increase in population, a half of total governments. employment in State and local Goods-producing industries rapid rise in personal disposable income, expanding economic activity, and a growing demand for Despite a steadily rising total output of goods to unprecedented levels through the 1970’s, the goods-producing industries encompass the only medical, educational, and other services. The output of these labor-intensive industries is less major industries in which employment is expected affected b y technological change than m any other industries, hence their employment growth is not industry— manufacturing— for which employment restrained very much b y productivity advances. W ithin the services division, to decline— mining and agriculture— and one growth is expected to be slower than during the 1960’s. Only one goods producer, construction, is employment expected to show a quickened pace of employment growth is expected in all m ajor industries between growth through the 1970’s. This modest employ 1968 and 1980, ranging from 14 percent for motion ment picture employment to almost 100 percent for industries, in the face of an overall healthy in miscellaneous business services. Growth in busi crease in output, reflects, of course, their rising productivity. ness services is expected to be particularly rapid expansion, overall, for goods-producing as firms rely increasingly on advertising services Altogether, the goods-producing industries em to sell their products; on accounting, auditing, ployed 29 million workers in 1968 and are expected bookkeeping, and computing services to handle to increase to 31.6 million b y 1980. However, their their recordkeeping; on contract firms to provide share of total employment will drop to less than a maintenance service; and on audit bureaus and third b y 1980 from about 36 percent in 1968. collecting agencies to cope with mushrooming consumer credit. A g r ic u l t u r e . Large increases in productivity, small gains in output, and a continuing concentra G overnm ent. government Em ploym ent has grown faster in than in any other sector in the tion of employment on large farms will result in further decline, about 1 million, in agricultural economy. From 1960-68 employment grew at the employment between 1968-80. The agricultural rate of 4.5 percent a year, nearly 2% times the rate share of total employment will also decline from for total employment. The sharp rise in recent 5.1 percent in 1968 to 3.2 percent in 1980. years has been stimulated, however, b y the needs of the Viet N am war as well as b y the rapid growth in population, the increasing proportion of young M in in g . and old persons in the population who require more services, and the general growth in demand for more and better government services. E m p loy ment is projected to rise more slowly through the 1970’s— at 2.9 percent a year— reaching 16.8 million in 1980, up from 11.8 million in 1968. Em ploym ent among Federal Government workers will rise only slightly, but State and local employ ment will continue to expand rapidly. many years because of above average gains in productivity and decreased demand, particularly for coal. Mining is projected to have the lowest rate of increase in output among all nonfarm industries. Continued employment declines are projected through the 1970’s although at a re duced rate because of some resurgence in the demand for coal. Em ploym ent will be less than 600,000 b y 1980. Em ploym ent has been declining for Although the rate of increase in State and local Future employment growth will be limited b y government employment will be higher compared the increasing use of new and improved labor- with almost any other sector, the growth will be saving devices and techniques, such as continuous slower than during the 1960’s, mainly because of mining an anticipated easing in the rate of growth for exploration and recovery techniques in crude oil educational services, which account for roughly and natural gas extraction. machinery systems and more efficient 19 This industry m ay benefit from ment include numerical control of machine tools, intensive application of existing technology that new metal processing methods, machinery im would increase the output per man-hour. Already, prefabricated panels and shells for houses show promise of more widespread use. A t the same time provements, improved materials handling (includ ing layout), new and improved raw materials and products, instrumentation and automatic controls, and electronic computers. C o n s t r u c t io n . the national housing goal for the decade 1 9 68-78 calls for the construction of 20 million new housing units in the private market and the production of 6 million new and rehabilitated units with public assistance in one form or another. This will spur growth in the construction industry, which is ex pected to grow at 2.5 percent a year in the 1970’s, How the em ploym ent projections differ Em ploym ent projections for a durable goods economy, even though weighted more heavily toward the production of goods, still produce an Additional demand will come from an expansion economy weighted more toward the service sector than the present one. The rate at which employ in State and local government needs, particularly ment shifts away from the goods-producing part nearly twice its growth rate during the 1960’s. for highway construction and new and rehabili of the economy, however, is slower in the durable tated housing units, and from expanding invest goods projection than in the services projection. ment in industrial plants. Em ploym ent will rise Durable goods manufacturing accounts for from 4 million in 1968 to nearly 53dz million b y about 1 percent more of total employment under 1980. the assumptions upon which the durable goods economy projections in 1980 are based than under the assumptions used for the services economy M a n u f a c t u r in g . Still the biggest industry, m an ufacturing is expected to remain as the largest projections. Em ploym ent in the nondurable goods industries, however, is only modestly changed single source of jobs in the economy. Manpower requirements in manufacturing, however, are between the two structures of the economy. Trans portation and trade are both roughly the same; expected to increase at a slower pace, at 0.9 per manufacturing is slightly higher; services and government, slightly lower. In both types of cent a year, than that experienced during the 1960’s, chiefly because the recent increases in employment in industries heavily oriented toward defense— ordnance, communications equipment, economy, manufacturing shows a declining pro portion of total employment while services and government show increasing proportions of total electronic components, employment. (See charts 5 and 6.) aircraft and parts, and shipbuilding— are not expected to continue at the same pace in the 1970’s. Em ploym ent, how ever, will rise from 20 million in 1968 to 22.4 million in 1980. Occupational em ploym ent erated b y the significantly increased demand for Industry changes during the 1970’s will have a strong influence on occupations— which ones will grow and which will contract. Each industry in the economy requires a specific mix of occupations. As industries react to changes in final demand and in relation to each other, the relative importance building materials for housing construction. A s in of particular occupations also changes. In general, manpower requirements will con tinue to increase faster in durable goods manu facturing than in nondurable goods industries. Growth in the durable goods sector will be accel in individual Beyond the effect of interindustry relationships, manufacturing industries are expected to vary industry occupational structures are also affected widely, depending on the im pact of technology by internal changes within industries. Just as well as shifts in demand. The increasing appli technological advances that increase worker pro cation ductivity have significantly affected employment the past, changes in employment of technological innovations to m anu as facturing processes is expected to continue to and output, these advances significantly affected reduce unit labor requirements in manufacturing. the occupational structure of the work force. A s a result of technological innovations, new occupa M ajor technological developments that will con tinue to limit growth in manufacturing employ 20 tions have emerged; others have expanded, Chart 5. Total employment: average annual rate of change, by major sector, 1960-68 (actual) and 1968-80 (pro jected for a services economy) -5 -4 -3 - 2 - 1 0 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 Total Agriculture, forestry and fisheries Mining Construction Manufacturing Durable N o n d u r a b le Transportation, communications and public utilities Trade Finance insurance and real estate Services (including household) Government I I I 1968-80 Services economy, 3% unemployment I 1960-68 flHHI 1968-80 Services economy, 4% unemployment contracted, or even disappeared; and the content Em ploym ent in these occupations will rise from and skill requirements of a great m any occupations have been altered. B u t technology and final 35.6 million in 1968 to 48.3 million in 1980. B lu e-colla r occu p a tion s, a slow growing occupa tional group, will account for almost one-third (32.7 percent) of the work force by 1980, down from 36.3 percent in 1968. Em ploym ent, however, demand are not the only factors affecting occupa tional shifts. Changes can occur as a result of revised work rules, new directions in governmental policy, and severe shortages that force sub stitutions in the kinds of workers hired (table 5). Several long-term occupational trends are ex pected to continue: growing will rise from 273=^2 million in 1968 to 31.1 million in 1980. M a n y occupations within the group, particularly in the skilled craft and foremen category, require years of specialized training. F a r m w orkers will continue to decline— from 4.6 occupational group over the past 50 years, will percent of the work force in 1968 to 2.7 percent in continue in that mode. This group, which sur passed employment in blue-collar occupations for 1980— as machines take over m any more of the production processes on the farm. Em ploym ent the first time in 1956, will account for about half of all employed workers (50.8 percent) by 1980. will also shrink from S } 4 million in 1968 to 2.6 million in 1980. W h ite-co lla r occu pa tion s, the fastest 21 net job openings3—transfers between occupations cancel out—this balance in no way suggests a perfect fit between entry requirements and worker qualifications. Such a match depends on the future education and training of young people, the degree of flexibility workers show in adapting to changing requirements and employers utilize in adapting hiring standards to the available labor force. Average annual openings by detailed occupation may identify those areas where oppor tunities are numerous and help young people make their career plans based on the best available information. (See chart 8.) S ervice occu p a tion s will continue to expand through the 1970’s increasing by two-fifths, which is more than one and a half times the expansion for all occupations combined. Em ploym ent will rise to 13.1 million in 1980, up from 9.4 million in 1968. (See chart 7.) Net occupational openings Projections of occupational requirements, which encompass the total employed civilian work force, indicate that the total openings arising from occu pational growth and replacement needs will be about 48 million between 1968-80, or about 4 R ep la cem en t n eed s — about 28 million in the million jobs to be filled every year throughout 1970’s— will be the most significant source of job the period. Although the inflow to the labor force through the 1970’s matches the overall number of openings in each of the major occupational areas— white-collar, blue-collar, service, and farm. Chart 6. Total employment: average annual rate of change, by major sector, 1960-68 (actual) and 1968-80 (pro jected for a durables economy) -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 Total Agriculture, forestry and fisheries Mining Construction Manufacturing D ura ble N o n d u r a b le Transportation, communications and public utilities Trade Finance, instance and leal estate Services (including households) Government 3 I ------ 1 1960-68 [= □ 1968-80 Durables economy, 3% unemployment 22 1968-80 Durables economy, 4% unemployment Table 5. Average annual rate of employment change, by major occupational group, 1960-68 (actual) and 1968-80 (Projected for a services economy with 3-percent un employment) 1968-80 1960-68 Occupational group Total__ _____ ___ _______ White-collarworkers______________ Professional, technical, andkindred____ Managers, officials, andproprietors.......... Clerical--- --- ----------------Sales___________________ Blue-collarworkers.-------- --------- Craftsmenandforemen...----- -----Operatives...--- ---------------- 1.8 2.8 4.1 1.2 3.5 1.2 1.7 2.0 2.0 Serviceworkers________________ Farmworkers................ .................. 2.0 -5.1 1.9 2.6 3.4 1.7 2.5 2.2 1.0 1.7 0.8 -0.1 2.8 -3.4 The need to replace workers who leave the labor force— primarily due to death and/or retire ment— will account for 3 in every 5 job openings during the period from 1 9 6 8 -8 0 ; occupational growth will account for 2 in every 5 openings. Replacement needs are likely to exceed the overall in those occupations that (a) employ m any women, who frequently leave the labor force to assume family responsibilities, and (b) have a large proportion of older workers who have rela tively few years of working life remaining. Growth n eed s — about 20 million— reflect indus try changes as well as technological changes during The long term rise in demand for goods and services, resulting from population growth and rising business and personal incomes, will account for much of the need for these highly trained workers (as well as for the increases among other groups of workers). The increasing concentration of the population in metropolitan areas also will create new demands for professional and technical personnel to work on environmental protection, urban renewal, and mass transportation systems. In addition, efforts to develop further the N ation's resources and industry and the quest for scientific and technical knowledge will generate new re quirements for professional workers. M a n a g e r s , o ffic ials , an d pro prieto rs . Em ployment in this occupational group, rising more slowly than total employment, will reach 9K m il lion in 1980, up from 7.8 million in 1968. Its share of total employment will continue at about 10 per cent. Changes in the scale and type of business organization have had divergent effects upon the various segments of this occupational group. In retailing, for example, the establishment of chain Chart 7. Employment trends among major occupational categories,1 1947-68 (actual) and 1980 (projected fo r a services economy with 3-percent unemployment) the 1970’s that, in turn, will determine, in large measure, which occupations will grow, which will contract. Percent 100 Changes in occupational groups Em ploym ent requirements to 1980 have been projected for the 9 major occupational groups and for about 250 detailed occupations (chart 9). P r o fe ssio n a l , te c h n ic a l , a n d k in d r e d . E m ployment growth in these occupations has out distanced that in all other major occupational groups in recent decades. From less than a million in 1890, the number of these workers has grown to 10.3 million in 1968. A n d requirements for White-collar workers 80 60 40 Blue-collar workers 20 these occupations will continue to lead other cat egories between 1968 and 1980, increasing half Service workers again in size, which is twice the employment in crease among all occupations combined. A t 15 % Farmworkers 1947 1950 1960 1968 1980 million in 1980, employment in this occupational group will represent 16.3 percent of total employ ment, up from 13.6 percent in 1968. 1Farmworkers includefarmmanagers. 23 stores such as supermarkets and discount houses has eliminated m any small businesses, thus Proprietors are expected to continue to decline reducing the number of self-employed proprietors. as the trend toward larger firms restricts growth of the total number of firms, and as small grocery In contrast, the number of salaried managers and officials has increased significantly. The net result and general stores and hand laundries continue to disappear. The expansion of quick service grocery of these opposing trends will probably be a slower stores, self-service laundries and drycleaning shops, increase in employment in the manager-proprietor and hamburger and frozen custard drive-ins, how ever, will slow the rate of decline. group as a whole than in any other m ajor group of white-collar workers. the increasing l e r i c a l . Em ploym ent in clerical jobs is expected to grow considerably faster than total employment dependence of both business and government on rising to 17.3 million in 1980, up from 12.8 million trained Technological in 1968. This rate of growth, although rapid, is development will contribute further to employ considerably slower than that experienced from 1960-68. Dem and for salaried managers and officials is expected to grow rapidly with management specialists. ment growth of these occupations. For example, an C increasing number of technical managers is needed Clerical workers, the largest single category in to plan research and development programs and white-collar employment, will be affected b y the to make decisions on the installation and use of rapid technological developments in the fields of automated machinery processing systems. computers, office equipment, and communication and automatic data devices in the 1970’s. For some, the effect of these technological improvements will in time retard the growth of em ploym ent; for others, the demand Chart 8. Net job openings in major occupational cate gories and groups, 1968—80 (projected for a services economy with 3-percent unemployment) -10 for processing the increased information becoming available through these improvements will accen tuate growth in their ranks. Technological developments will limit employ 0 +10 +20 +30 +40 +50 ment growth for certain types of clerical workers. T o illustrate, the use of electronic computers and All occupations bookkeeping machines to process routine and repetitive work is expected to reduce the number White-collar of clerks in jobs such as filing, payroll, inventory control, and customer billing. On the other hand, Professional &technical laborsaving innovations will be offset to some extent b y growing requirements for clerical per sonnel to prepare computer inputs. Managers, officials, & proprietors Clerical The rapid growth of industries that employ large clerical staffs, particularly those such as finance, insurance, and real estate, is a major factor in the projected level of clerical demand. Clerical employm ent will increase its share of total employment from 16.9 percent in 1968 to 18.2 percent in 1980. Sales Blue-collar Craftsmen and foremen Operatives Nonfarmlaborers S a l e s . The anticipated expansion of trade should increase the demand for sales personnel— partic Service Farm 1...... ) Growth ularly for part-time techniques in employees— but merchandising m ay changing hold down some of the increase. Em ploym ent is expected to Replacement rise from 4.6 million in 1968 to 6 million in 1980 and at a slightly faster rate of increase than is expected in total employment. Sales share of total 24 employment will continue a little over 6 percent through the 1970’s. C raftsm en , forem en , and k in d r e d w o rk ers Chart 9. Employment in major occupational groups, 1968 (actual) and 1980 (projected for a services economy with 3-percent unemployment) . M illion s o f w ork ers Em ploym ent in this highly skilled group of occupa tions is expected to expand more slowly than total employment, rising from 10 million in 1968 to 12.2 million in 1980. The craft share of total employment will slide downward a little to 12.8 percent b y 1980. Different industries employ different proportions of craftsmen. Manufacturing employs a greater number than any other industry. In construction, however, these skilled workers are a much higher proportion of employees than in any other in dustry group— 1 out of every 2, compared with 1 in 5 in manufacturing and transportation and fewer than 1 in 10 in other industries. S e m i s k i l l e d w o r k e r s . These occupations employ more workers than any other group. Em ploym ent in these occupations increased sharply as industry, aided b y technological innovations, shifted to mass production processes. B u t now that these processes are well established, further and more sophisticated technological advances are apt to slow employ ment growth in these occupations in the years ahead. Em ploym ent is projected to rise from 14 million in 1968 to 15.4 million in 1980, at a rate of increase that will be about half the increase projected for total employm ent; the semiskilled share of total employment will slide downward from 18.4 percent in 1968 to 16.2 percent in 1980. Three of every 5 semiskilled workers in 1968 were employed as factory operatives in manu facturing industries. Large numbers were assem blers or inspectors, and m any worked as operators of material moving equipment such as powered forklift trucks. Am ong the nonfactory operatives, drivers of trucks, buses, and taxicabs by far made up the largest group. Em ploym ent trends among the individual semi skilled occupations since W orld W a r I I have reflected different rates of growth in the industries 1968 I I 1980 processes. Increases in production and growing motor truck transportation of freight will be major factors in expanding demands for operatives in the 1968-80 period. in which the workers were employed as well as the N o n f a r m l a b o r e r s . Em ploym ent requirements for these laborers are expected to continue at 3% differing impacts of technological innovations on million despite the rapid employment rise antici occupations. For example, the rapid decline in pated in manufacturing employment of spinners and weavers reflacted primary employers of laborers. The nonfarm labor not only the relatively small increase in and construction, the the share of total employment, however, will decline demand for textile mill products but also the in from 4.7 percent to 3.7 percent between 1968 and creased mechanization of spinning and weaving 1980. 25 384-657 Q— ‘70- 5 Increases in demand are expected to be offset roughly by rising output per worker resulting other farm products also will reduce employment from requirements for farm workers. the continuing substitution of mechnical equipment for manual labor. For example, powerdriven equipment such as forklift trucks, derricks, cranes, hoists, and conveyor belts will take over and sorting systems for fruits, vegetables, and The continued trend toward larger and more efficient farms will also limit employment. Farms and farm managers are expected to more and more handling of materials in factories, continue to be most affected by the decline in the at freight terminals, and in warehouses. Other number of small farms, and requirements for these power-driven machines will do excavating, ditch workers are expected to continue to decline faster than that for farm laborers and foremen. digging, and similar work. In addition, integrated systems of processing and handling of materials equipment will be installed in an increasing Employment in a durables economy number of plants. Under the assumptions embodied in the dura S e r v ic e w o rk ers . M ajor factors underlying in bles economy, those occupations that predomi creased needs for service workers will be a growing nate population, expanding business activity, increasing different employment levels. in durable goods industries would show Requirements for leisure time, and higher levels of disposable per engineers, for example, would be 1 percent higher sonal income. in a This occupational group, a fast growing one, encompasses a wide variety of jobs and a wide range of skill requirements. I t in cludes such diverse jobs as F B I agents, policemen, beauty operators, and janitors. durables economy; tool and diemakers, carpenters, and cement finishers would each be 23^2 about percent higher; manufacturing sales men would be nearly 3 Y i percent higher. On the other hand, occupations that predominate in Em ploym ent requirements will rise from 9.4 services industries, such as government; finance, million in 1968 to 13.1 million in 1980, at a rate of insurance, and real estate; and trade would show increase that is more than half again as fast as somewhat lower employment levels, securities and the rate projected for total employment. Private insurance salesmen, about 2 ^ percent less; and household employment, the slowest growing serv waitresses, about 2 percent less. ice area, will expand from 1.7 million to 2.0 million, an increase of about 15 percent between 1968 and 1980. The fastest growing service area will be health service, rising close to 90 percent, from 800,000 to 1.5 million between 1968 and 1980. The economy in 1980 PROJECTED SHAPE OF THE LABOR FORCE w o r k e r s . These workers will decline onethird, from 3 y<i million in 1968 to 2.6 million in 1980. The share of total employment also will fall, from 4.6 percent to 2.7 percent in the same period. Continuing earlier trends, decreasing require ments for farm workers will be related to rising productivity on the farms. Improvements in farm T h e L a b o r F o r c e is affected by changing labor force participation rates by age groups. Past trends provide clues for predicting how these rates m ay change. Some past trends suggest that the increase in college enrollments will tend to reduce the labor force activity of the college-age technology, better fertilizers, seeds, and feed will groups as a whole even though m any students F arm permit farmers to increase production with fewer continue to work part time. A s has been the case employees. Improved mechanical harvesters for in recent years, an expanding economy is likely to vegetables and fruits will decrease the need for provide an abundance of jobs that will tend to en seasonal or other hired labor. Innovations in live courage students, other young people, and women stock and poultry feeding and improved milking systems will allow more efficient handling of a to move into the labor force, often for part- greater volume of development of automatic packing, 26 productivity. time jobs, in larger numbers than during the expected 1960’s. Birth rates, which have been declining, are inspection, likely to continue to do so with the result that The Table 6. Labor force balance sheet, 1960-70, 1970-80 little— from 8.7 percent to 8.3 percent— -as the Number in millions 1970’s advance to 1980, but even so their numbers will continue to rise. In 1960, teenagers in the labor force numbered about 5.2 million. Their I960 DECADE (1960 -7 0) 72.1 20.9 51.2 2 6.4 Total labor force, 16 years and over, 1960______________________ Less withdrawals, 1960 through 1969______________________ 1960 total labor force still in labor force in 1970_____________ Plus new entrants, I960 through 1969_____________________ Plus all other entrants, 1960 through 1969 1_______________ Total labor force, 16 years and over, 1970 2_ _ _ _ ________________ 8.0 8 5.6 1970 DECADE (1 970-80) Total labor force, 16 years and over, 1970 2____________________ Less withdrawals, 1970 through 1979______________________ 1970 total labor force still in labor force in 1980_____________ Plus new entrants, 1970 through 1979_____________________ Plus all other entrants, 1970 through 1979 1_______________ Total labor force, 16 years and over, 1980______________________ 85.6 26.3 59.3 33.7 7 .7 100.7 average rate of increase through the 1960’s (1960-68) was about 3.9 percent per year, result ing in 7.1 million being in the labor force b y 1968; by 1980, there will be 8.3 million. Their annual average rate of increase through the 1970’s (1 9 6 8 80) will drop to 1.3 percent, about one-third of the growth rate of the preceding decade. The rate o f increase o f 2 0 - to 24-year-olds in the 1Primarily reentrants 2Estimated. plus immigrants. labor force will slow down. Young people, 20 to 24 years old, in the labor force will be increasing in more women will enter the labor force. Finally, numbers during the 1970’s but at a slower rate the level and coverage of retirement benefits will than during the preceding decade. In contrast with allow more workers to leave the labor force at the teenagers, the proportion these young adults earlier ages. constitute of the total labor force will continue to rise from 13.4 percent (11 million) in 1968, to Labor force changes 14.7 The labor force is constantly changing. Workers enter and leave all the time. The expansion to 100 million by 1980 means that more workers will be coming into the labor force pool (41 million) than will be leaving (26 million). (See chart 10.) Three kinds of workers will increase the supply percent (almost 15 million) by 1980— a reflection primarily of the increase in population. Altogether, young people under the age of 25 will account for a little more than a quarter of total labor force expansion of the 1970’s, in conChart 10. The shape of the labor force, 1968 (actual) and 1980 (projected) of labor by 41 million through the 1970’s: All workers (millions) ► 34 million new, young workers looking for their first jobs, ► nearly 6 million women who either delayed I 1 10 ......— — ...— their entry into the labor force or picked up the threads of work again after an absence, most frequently devoted to caring for young children, ► over 1 million immigrants who will become part of the U .S . work force. Three kinds of workers will leave the labor force during the 1970’s reducing the total by 26 million: workers who die; workers who retire; and workers who decide not to work any longer, although sometimes only temporarily, for a variety of personal reasons including illness and the need to care for fam ily or because of other responsibilities. (See table 6.) The net effect of this inflow and outflow on the age composition of the labor force through the 1970’s (1 9 6 8 -8 0 ) will be as follows: The huge increase o f teenagers in the 1 9 6 0 ’s will taper o f . The proportion of the labor force that is composed of teenagers will actually decline ages a 2? trast with over half (54 percent) of labor force workers, unprecedented in numbers. growth from 1960 to 1968. The increasing number of 25 - to 34-year-olds in the labor force in the 1970’s does not neces The number o f early career workers, 2 5 to 3 4 years old, will increase precipitously. The big labor force news of the 1970’s will be the significant increase in the numbers of workers in their late twenties and early thirties— the career development years, from 16% million in 1968 to over 26 million in 1980, an increase of almost 60 percent. One out of every 4 workers will be in this age group in 1980 in comparison with 1 in every 5 in 1968. For the most part, these workers will have completed their education and training and will be reader to assume full harness in the world of work. The catalyst for the big expansion in young workers sarily mean that 800,000 new jobs must be found every year for those moving into this age bracket. A great m any of these young workers came into the labor force during the 1960’s and found jobs then. During the 1970’s, they simply will be moving up the age ladder of the labor force. A s they acquire additional training, experience, and m aturity in the process of working their way up, they m ay be able to compensate for the short supply of older workers in the prime career age group where recent labor force expansion has been either slim or nonexistent. is the great upsurge in the fertility rate that The number o f midcareer workers, aged 3 5 to 44, occurred following W orld W a r II. The annual number of births increased from 2.7 million to will show a small increase. Despite growth from 17 3.8 supply of these workers in the labor force still will moved up to 4.2 million by the late 1950’s. Their be relatively thin. Their proportion of the total schooling for these labor force will decline from about 21 percent in young people born in the early postwar years young 1968 to about 19 percent b y 1980. Generally, workers in this age group staff positions of maxi Chart 11. Major changes in the labor force, 1960’s (estimated) and 1970's (projected) m um work responsibility and are at the peak of their performance. Their short supply will mean 1*1 provide the 1946 most a large and part pool of 1947 and million to about 19 million from 1968 to 1980, the then will million between completed, trained, * rre> ' •’.}•/> Millions of workers Age group -2 0 +2 4 6 m any more midcareer openings will be available for the younger 2 5 - to 34-year-old workers. 8 14 16 A sharp slowdown will occur in the labor force growth rate among older workers, 4 5 to 64 years o f age. These workers, who are normally at the top of their career ladders, will increase in number from 27% million in 1968 to just over 29 million in 1980. B u t the increase will be only one-third as great as that between 1960 and 1968. Their proportion+of the total labor force will decline sharply from about 33 percent to about 29 percent. This slowdown in the growth rate is related to a sizable decline in population growth in the 4 5 -5 4 year old group, reflecting the comparatively small number of people born in the depths of the Great Depression when birth rates were low, who are moving into this age class. There will be no significant change fo r workers beyond 1960's ( = □ 1970's I I the usual retirement age o f 6 5 who will number ju st over 3 m illion through the 1 9 7 0 ’s. T hey will represent a declining proportion of the work force. The decreased propensity to work after 65 reflects the improvement in retirement benefits 28 that reduces the need for older workers to stay W omen on the job to make ends m eet; the greater security 37 million expected in 1980— will continue to represent an increasing proportion of the working that comes with the health protection of medicare in the labor force . W om en workers— and medicaid; and the increased assets that m ay population. B y 1980, more than 4 in every 10 have resulted from full employment. (See chart 11.) women (43 percent) will be working, only slightly more than the proportion today (41.1 percent) but Participation rates double the proportion (2 in 10) in 1890. W h a t makes people decide to work? W hatever the incentive for working, 6 in every 10 in the N e g r o e s in working age group (16 and over) are expected to million more than in 1968. Its annual rate of be either working or seeking work in 1980, about growth, the same as today; in 1890 only 5 in every 10 in growth rate for whites, 1.6 percent, b y one half. the work-age population were workers. The longrun increase in labor force participation reflects The difference reflects a more rapid increase in the Negro population of working age than that primarily occurring among whites, particularly among those the increasing proportion of women who work. (See chart 12.) Chart 12. the labor force . The Negro labor force 4 is expected to total 12 million in 1980, 3 2.4 percent, exceeds the comparable under 35 years of age. Labor force and population,1 1890 to 1980 M illions o f persons 2 00 .............................................................................................. I I P opulation I 1 L abor fo r c e m o P a*? ^or 1 8 9 0 -1 9 4 0 refer to persons 14 years and over. Data for 1950 to Sources: U.S. Department o f Com m erce, Bureau o f the Census; U.S. De1 ,n ,n er to Persons 16 Years and over- Com parable labor force data not available partment o f Labor, Bureau o f Labor Statistics; John D. Durand, The Labor Force tor 1910. o f the United States, 1 8 9 0 -1 9 6 0 (New York, N .Y ., Gorden & Breach, 1 96 8); Gertrude Bancroft, The Am erican Labor Force (New York, N.Y., John Wiley & Sons, 1 95 8). 29 T he pattern of change between 1968 and 1980 for the Negro work force differs only in degree from that of their white counterparts. Workers under 25 years old will account for a large share of adult workers in 1968— nearly 7 million— had completed less than 8 years of schooling while 6 in every 10 adult workers— about 37 million— had completed 4 years of high school or more. the increase for both Negroes and whites but will Nearly 1 in 6 workers, 25 years and over— account for more of the increase among Negroes. about 13 million— will have completed at least 4 For both groups, the m ost spectacular increase years of college in 1980; in 1968, about 8.5 million, will take place in the group 2 5 -3 4 years old, but or 1 in 7 workers, 25 years and over, had a similar for amount of education. The total number of college- Negroes. T he labor force 35 years old and over will show only a small amount of growth for both educated workers of all ages in the work force would, of course, exceed 13 million, since a signif Negroes and whites. icant number of workers under 25— perhaps as again, a slightly greater relative increase force has always been higher for Negro than for m any as 2 to 3 million— will have completed 4 years of college in 1980. M oreover, about 9.2 white women, an indication of the greater need for million adult workers— 1 in 8— in 1980 will have m any Negro women to contribute to family income. The difference between these labor force had some college training but less than 4 years. participation rates has been getting smaller as paid well-educated younger workers, which will occur T he proportion of women who are in the labor The heavy influx to the labor force of relatively work outside the home has become more common at the same time that m any less educated older among white women. workers are leaving the labor force, promises a In 1968, 49 percent of were major change in the educational background of the workers. B y 1980, it is expected that the difference workers in the early age span. B y 1980, about 4 Negro and 40 percent of white women will be reduced further, reflecting an improvement out of 5 young adult workers (25 to 34 years old) in the economic situation of Negro men, which, in will be high school graduates or better, and 1 in 5 turn, will mean that Negro women will be under will have completed 4 years of college or m ore; by less pressure to contribute toward the support of contrast, in the 1968 work force, 3 in 4 workers in their families. Thus, the rate of participation for this age group were high school graduates and 1 in all Negro women in 1980 was projected as 47 6 were college graduates. percent and for white women at 42 percent. Am ong Negro men, small increases are projected in the labor force participation rates from 75.9 percent in 1968 to 77.5 percent in 1980, at the same time that the rate for white males is edging down. These increases reflect the anticipated improvement in Negro m en’s employment oppor tunities, which will tend to minimize irregular work patterns and reduce withdrawals from the labor force that reflect discouragement over job prospects. Educational attainment The N ation’s labor force will have higher educational qualifications in 1980 then in 1968: the proportion of workers with at least 4 years of The economy in 1980 SOME IMPLICATIONS OF THE PROJECTIONS A ny s e t of economic projections carries with it certain implications for the future behavior of all aspects of the economy, including government policy. Three major aspects of the projections warrant further consideration: 1. 2. growth of the economy; demographic changes in the labor force; and 3. higher educational attainment of the labor high school will be rising among workers at all ages. B y 1980, only 1 in 16 adult workers (25 and over)— force. about 5 million— will have less than 8 years of Growth of the economy schooling; and 7 in every 10 adult workers— about 52 million— will have completed at least 4 W hen the depression years of the 1930’s were years of high school. In contrast, over 1 in 10 still within recent memory, optimistic economic 30 projections inevitably raised a question about the ability of the economy to reach the projected for the continuation of the long-term trend in productivity. levels. The sustained high levels of growth during F ed era l G overnm ent exp en d itu res f o r d efen se p u r the 1960’s, however, have created confidence that will fall as a proportion of total gnp . Other and local and Federal nondefense—will rise as a share of the gnp . This implies a possible temporary dislocation of people and jobs in defense industries, particularly if the decline in defense expenditures occurs over a short period of time. Some defense industries may suffer loss of their Federal contracts with a companion decline in output; some defense plants will either shut down or curtail their activities; and some regions and localities may experience, at least temporarily, increasing levels of unemployment. the expected levels indicated for the 1970’s m ay be quite reasonable. The projected gnp level for 1980 will be 65 percent above the level in 1968, a growth rate of 4.3 percent per year. Because of the anticipated higher rate of labor force increase, this is somewhat higher than the potential growth rate of the 1960’s. However, the 4.3 percent rate is somewhat lower than the rate actually achieved during the 1960’s because advances in the early part of the decade resulted from taking up the slack in the economy. The projections for certain sectors of the econ E x p e n d itu r e s fo r are expected to n ew or renovated of new family about p u b lic ex p en d itu res —State Government programs to meet such dislocation include placement services to workers seeking jobs om y raise specific questions: reflecting the needs p o se s double by h ou sin g , formation, 1980. This m ay make possible attainment of the goal of 26 outside their labor market area and special assist ance to enable defense plants hit b y cutbacks to diversify production and seek other markets to maintain production levels. million housing units for the 1968-78 decade set State a n d local governm ent exp en d itu res between b y Congress in the Housing and Urban Develop 1 986-80 will shift from about half to close to m ent A ct of 1968. However, if this goal is to be three-fifths fulfilled, advances will be necessary to This shift will occur because of a large increase assure an adequate supply of trained construction in State and local expenditures and a relative workers, to create sufficient sources of reasonably decline in Federal purchases. major priced financing, and to put into practice the technological improvements necessary to higher output. Strong demand for new and renovated housing is evident enough, even today, but the current limited availability of mortgage funds together with a high level of interest rates has caused buyers and builders to hesitate to take on long term commitments. If these conditions continue, the expected surge in residential construction activity may be seriously delayed. W hile of the total 1980 government projections do expenditures. not include revenue estimates, it is clear that a major effort will be necessary to obtain the funds to finance this increase in State and local expenditures. Part of this expenditure increase will represent funds channeled from the Federal Governm ent in the form of grants-in-aid and sharing of Federal revenues. A t the same time a considerable effort by State and local governments will be necessary to increase their own revenues. A further difficult task will be to develop the programs and the management skills in State and local government to meet the complex problems that they will be facing. In the decade ahead, special emphasis will un doubtedly be placed on developing new methods of training construction workers, expanding op portunities for minority applicants, and reducing seasonality to make more effective use of skilled craftsmen; and to institute new technology that E x p e n d itu r e s f o r services by both consumers and governments will account for a larger share of the gnp in 1980 than today. It is likely that the trend will permit houses to be built faster and cheaper with the manpower available. these services m ay contribute to the goal of eco B u s in e s s in vestm en t in p la n t an d equ ip m en t is projected to at least maintain the high proportion of gnp attained during the last few years of rela tively full employment, thus providing a basis toward higher manpower requirements to provide nomic stability since service employment is normally less subject to layoffs at the onset of declines in economic activity. P r o d u c tiv ity , holding steady at 3.0 percent a 31 year in the private nonfarm sector and remaining at high levels on the farm (5.7 percent a year), will yield an advance in output per man-hour of 3 percent a year for the entire economy through the 1970’s. However, as the service sector expands in importance, it m ay become increasingly diffi cult to maintain the high level of productivity that come with age and experience. The differing viewpoints of young and old may bring forth more grievances, more altercations with manaj ement. Likely implications of these changes on specifi demographic groups in the population are as follows: gains for the economy that have prevailed since W orld W a r II. The service industries are unlikely T eenagers . The slowdown in their rate of growth to experience large increases in output per worker, in the labor force may improve job opportunities for teenagers competing in an anticipated expand ing economy. because they are less subject to mechanization, and m any of them depend for their value upon personal or individual attention. Thus, particular attention will be required to find means of applying cost-saving techniques to the service industries if the N ation’s productivity is not to fall below the 3-percent level. H o u r s o j w ork are expected to decline slightly during the 1970’s at a rate of 0.1 percent a year. This relatively small decline reflects in large part the continuing increase in part-tim e employment and to a lesser degree limited reductions in the scheduled workweek. In addition to this decline, which is based on hours for which paym ent is received, greater availability of leisure time can be expected as a result of longer paid vacations and an increasing number of paid holidays. Demographic changes in the labor force The 100 million labor force of 1980 will exhibit a distinctly different age profile. The rapid growth during the 1960’s of teenagers and persons in their early twenties will inexorably be transferred in the coming decade to those in their late twenties and early thirties. In contrast, the 4 5 -6 4 age group b y 1980 will be barely 5 percent higher than a decade earlier. For the N ation as a whole, the younger work force, averaging 35 years of age, m ay be a great boon. The large numbers of young workers m ay provide an abundance of new ideas— the eager ness, imagination, and flexibility of the young m ay contribute to developing new ways of business organization, production, and marketing. Differences in the points of view, however, that today seem often to characterize those under and over 30 m ay, of course, bring some frictions and other problems. Industry’s work force m ay suffer from workers who lack the patience and wisdom 32 Y oung w orkers . Projected changes may mean keen competition among workers in their twenties for entry-level jobs but better opportunities for advancement to higher levels where the number of competent older workers may be stretched thin. E xperienced midcareer w orkers . The big in crease in the number of young trained workers may mean that the mature worker may be pushed hard to hold his own against the young, many of whom will probably be better educated and trained for tomorrow’s jobs. O lder w orkers . The improved supply of young workers may accelerate pressures on older workers to retire sooner than they might otherwise do. In any case, the trend toward earlier retirement is expected to continue and can be expected to lead to greater emphasis on preretirement planning and the development of community service projects for which retired workers could contribute paid or volunteer part-time work. W omen w orkers . The continuing increase in the labor force participation rates of women, partic ularly young women in their childbearing years, may mean that more day care centers for children must be provided to assure proper protection of the young children of working mothers; more part-time job opportunities must be made avail able for women whose home responsibilities do not permit full-time employment; some job requirements may need to be adjusted to meet women’s physical characteristics. As an increasing proportion of married women work, the added family income may serve to change patterns of consumption and living styles, more services may be purchased to replace the housewife’s home services; more precooked foods in 1980 will depend upon a continuing improve m ay be demanded; more expenditures for leisure ment in education, the relative success of efforts to time recreational activities m ay be made. open hitherto N egro w orkers . The one-third increase ex employment remained opportunities closed, and that the have impact of changing occupational patterns. The bls expects pected in the Negro labor force between 1 968-80, to issue a more detailed study of Negro employ bringing their total numbers to 12 million workers in 1980, m ay be accompanied b y increased con ment progress and outlook later in the year. These demographic changes are likely also to af cern for their occupational upgrading during the fect the country’s major job-oriented institutions. 1970’s. Since upward occupational mobility is conditioned, in part, upon improved job qualifi cations, the recent steady progress in the educa new young workers and women in the labor force E mployers . The large increase in the number of tional qualifications of Negroes brings promise of will produce pressure for employers to provide better occupational adjustments to come. The improved on-the-job training, more effective super proportion of Negro men 2 5 -2 9 with 4 years of vision, and additional safety education. T hey will high school or more rose from 36 percent in 1960 have to expect greater turnover and will have to to 60 percent in 1969 while the comparable increase allow for more part-time workers. for white males during the same period was from 63 percent to 78 percent. Negro females have made similar, but not so striking gains. A m ajor increase in Negroes attending college also took place during the decade. These higher levels of educational attainment, together with steady progress toward equal em ployment opportunities, have combined to produce major changes in the occupational progress of employed Negroes. From employment in the 1960 to professional 1969 and Negro U nions . In a strong economy, their membership swelled b y youthful members, unions m ay lean more toward emphasizing take-home pay rather than job security, seniority, pensions, and other fringe benefits that are usually of greater interest to older workers. Divergent bargaining objectives between young and older workers m ay lead to intraunion problems. technical occupations has more than doubled— from less S chools . The large number of young people enter than 350,000 to nearly 700,000 while white em ing the labor force directly from high school and ployment in these occupations increased 40 percent vocational school will require improved prepara from 7 million to 10 million. Similar improvements have been made in the managerial, clerical, and sales occupations. In the manual occupations, tion for obtaining the skills and work attitudes needed for success in the work world. Y oung workers will need better guidance and counseling there has been a sharp upgrading of Negro workers as they enter the labor force. Y oung people who with a 70-percent increase in Negro craftsmen compared with a 17-percent increase for whites. A t the same time, there has been a drop in Negro do not complete high school m ay find it harder to get a job as they compete with their peers who have had more schooling. nonfarm laborers, private household workers, and farm workers. C hanges in the labor market . T he projections Despite these encouraging gains, Negroes are still disproportionately concentrated in occupa tions such as nonfarm laborers that are expected assume that the 100 million labor force will mesh with the job requirements of the $1.4 trillion economy. This close match between workers and to continue to decline throughout the 1970’s or in jobs will not just happen. It will require greater occupations such as household workers, which flexibility in the labor market through education, will be increasing only slightly. Moreover, Negro realistic training programs geared workers in 1969 represented only 6 percent of total occupational requirements, improved placement employment in professional occupations, 4 percent services, removal of arbitrary barriers to occupa in sales and 3 percent in managerial occupations. The prospects for improved Negro employment to shifts in tional entry, and the willingness of employers to maintain flexible hiring requirements. 33 Educational attainment of the labor force The continuing rise in educational achievement of the labor force has a number of specific implica tions for the 1980 labor market. J ob en try r e q u ir e m e n t s . Faced b y a rising supply of more highly educated applicants, some employers m ay prefer more highly educated job applicants and be reluctant to adjust their educa be college material will no longer insist on having a “ go” at college nor resist taking useful manual and service employment. 2. Adjustments in labor supply through removal of any remaining racial barriers to job entry and modified immigration policies. 3. Adjustments in pay and working conditions to make such jobs more attractive. 4. Programs to provide greater advancement op portunities for those who enter the manual occupa tions at the lower level of the job structure. tional entry requirements to levels that are con sistent with job requirements. Similarly, while job opportunities m ay open up more readily for disadvantaged workers who improve their edu cational qualifications, the job outlook for the disadvantaged with limited schooling is likely to remain bleak. These possibilities underscore the H ig h l y educated m an po w er . The N ation ’s col leges and universities— principal suppliers of our most highly trained manpower— now are turning out record numbers of graduates and are expected to continue to do so throughout the 1970’s. N u m bers of persons earning bachelor’s degrees will importance during the coming decade of en couraging employers to make their educational climb b y two-thirds, and those earning master’s entry requirements reflect actual job needs rather cally, than simply the availability of a more educated awarded between and doctor’s degrees will double by 1980. N um eri 13.3 million degrees 1968 and are expected to be 1980— 10.2 million bachelor’s, 2.7 million master’s, and 400,000 doc labor supply. torates. W h it e - c o l l a r o c c u p a t io n s . By 1980, more Using past employment and educational pat workers will be in white-collar jobs than in the terns blue-collar The between 1968 and 1980 about 9.3 million college- impression m ay grow that white-collar jobs are educated persons will enter the civilian labor force and service groups combined. only for highly educated workers. Jobs within the white-collar group actually have a wide range of educational requirements: managerial jobs range from the managers of large corporations to managers of hamburger carryout shops; clerical jobs cover executive secretaries and file clerks; and sales occupations include peddlers as well as stock brokers. hucksters estimates bls The continuing emphasis on higher education poses a threat to the flow of Millions of workers 12 10 Other 1 1.2 Replacement 4.3 New college graduates Growth 9.3 6.1 energetic intelligent manpower to the skilled crafts. This emphasis, together with the generally higher esteem in which white-collar occupations are held, m ay make it difficult to fill blue-collar and service jobs. W hether or not this materializes Job openings Entrants would seem to depend on the possibility o f : 1. A shift in attitudes toward higher education, at least to the extent that youngsters who may not 34 that Chart 13. Projected job openings for college graduates and projected entrants, 1968-80 and Since m any white-collar jobs do not require even a high school diploma, special means may be needed to keep young people whose education is limited informed of the variety of job openings in this area. M a n u a l o c c u p a t io n s . of degree recipients, 1 Includes reentrants, delayed entrants, and immigrants. after receiving their degrees: 8.4 million at the bachelor’s level, 900,000 at the master’s, and ap Table 7. Distribution of college graduates by major occu pational field, 1968 and 1980 proximately 18,000 at the doctorate level. Pre 1980 1968 sumably, most persons who will receive degrees during this period and who Total employ ment 1 (thou sands) Occupational group enter the Armed Forces will have returned to the civilian labor force b y 1980. Therefore, the effect of the conflict in V iet N a m on labor force entry of college gradu All occupational groups___________ This supply of new graduates will be augmented training who will come into the labor force be tween 1968 and 1980. These additions are ex pected to consist primarily of women who delayed Total Percent, gradu employ ment • ates to (thou total sands) College gradu ates 2 (thou sands) Percent, gradu ates to total 75,920 9,229 12.3 95,100 15,342 16.1 Professional and technical.. 10,325 Managers, officials, and 7,776 proprietors_____ _______ 4,647 Sales_____________________ Clerical___________________ 12,803 All other__________________ 40,369 6,182 59.9 15,500 10,230 6 6.0 1,562 463 583 439 2 0.0 10.1 4 .6 1.1 9,500 6,000 17,300 46, 800 2,850 780 779 703 30.0 13.0 4 .5 1 .5 ates was assumed to be limited. b y another 1.2 million persons with college level College grad uates 2 (thou sands) 1 16 years of age and ovar. Data include persons 18 years of age and over having 4 years of college or more. 2 seeking a job but are expected to become available for work in the 19 6 8 -8 0 period, or who were work An increased supply of graduates offers only the ing in earlier years but withdrew from the labor hope that students will elect to enter courses in force. Thus, the new supply of college-educated numbers that match job vacancies b y discipline. manpower expected to enter the labor force from 1 9 6 8 -8 0 will total 10.5 million. will be made, bls has made projections to 1980 The need for workers stems generally from two sources: employment growth in occupations and the need to replace workers who die, retire, or otherwise leave the labor force. B ut another factor is relevant in considering the need for college educated manpower: rising job entry requirements that make a college degree necessary for jobs once performed by workers with lower educational attainment. Assessing these three factors— growth, replace In an effort to predict how these individual choices for some of the principal occupations in the pro fessional, technical, and kindred group. (See table 7.) Specific demand-supply potential sharp differences Elementary and secondary occupational assessments indicate among occupations. school teaching is expected to experience the most dramatic change in supply-demand conditions. Long a shortage occupation, teaching is about to undergo a sharp change in prospects: the aggregate, supply is ment, and rising entry requirements— it is esti expected to significantly exceed demand if recent mated that 10.4 million new college graduates will be needed between 1968 and 1980: (1) 6.1 million entry patterns in the occupation continue. The anticipated surplus of applicants trained for ele to take care of occupational growth and rising mentary and secondary teaching assignments, the entry requirements, and (2) 4.3 million to replace other workers. (See chart 13.) biggest single professional opportunity for women, Thus, an ample supply of graduates that is roughly in balance with manpower requirements seems in the offing for the 12-year period between 1968 and 1980. The large output of highly educated workers is expected to end m any long-time occu pational shortages and promises help for other occupations in which shortages m ay persist because of requirements for highly specialized graduate level training, lack of facilities, or comparatively low salaries. M a n y professional occupations have suffered from chronic worker shortages for m any years, particularly teaching, engineering, physics, oceanography, chemistry, geophysics, and bio medical and health occupations. m ay mean that m any college-educated women will have to look to other professions, some long regarded as the principal province of men, such as engineering, law, medicine, dentistry, pharmacy. If employers in these fields accept women readily, this acceptance m ay help to reduce further some of the discrimination against women in professional schools that has prevailed in the past. Professional health occupations should continue to experience shortages. The supply of physicians and short dentists, for example, is expected of requirements because of the to fall limited capacity of medical and dental schools currently in operation and scheduled to be in operation by 1980. 35 Engineers are also expected to continue to be the planning and administration of local in short supply. If the number of engineering graduates were to keep pace with the expected growth in total college graduates, the new supply governments. would be adequate to meet projected requirements. inspired no doubt b y the steady performance of These 1980 projections do have a rosy glow, this economic growth during the 1960’s. B u t the past development as bachelor’s degrees in engineering continue to become a smaller proportion of total decade has, in fact, left the stage to somewhat Recent trends, however, do not suggest mixed notices. W hile economic growth performed bachelor’s degrees awarded. In scientific fields, shortages of chemists, geologists, and geophysicists seem likely, but beyond surpluses of mathematicians and life scientists employment and price stability and solving such m ay result if students continue to elect these fields social problems as urban congestion, the lack of equal opportunity, rising crime, the disaffection in the same proportion as in the past. However, since transfers occur quite frequently among these occupations, part of the supply-demand expectations, not all aspects of the economy reached the same heights. The current difficulties of meshing the twin objectives of high of the young, and environmental pollution are enough to cast doubt on any optimistic view of imbalances m ay be remedied b y such transfers. the future. The challenge to the Nation during Other areas for which potential shortages are the 1970’s will be to solve these pressing problems in prospect include counseling, social work, urban before they seriously erode the economy’s capacity planning, and a variety of occupations related to to realize its growth potential. □ ■FO O T N O T E S- 1 Two measures of hours are available: hours worked and hours paid for. Hours worked is a measure of hours on the job; hours paid for are hours on the job plus the additional hours which employees spent on paid leave such as vacations, sick leave, or holidays. Since hours worked data are not available in sufficient detail by Industry, the discussion of hours in this section represents hours paid for. 2 This technique is in accordance with the income accounting conventions of the Office of Business Economics of the U.S. Department of Commerce. 3 This balance results, of course, from the assumptions underlying these projections, which were that the growth in employment would match that of the labor force, leaving only a level of unemployment (at either 3 or 4 percent) roughly similar to that in 1968. 4 D ata refer to all races except white. Nationwide, Negroes make up about 92 percent of races other than white. How projections are used The final detailed projections of industry and occupational employment to 1980 m ay be useful for a variety of planning and policy development purposes: State facilities and c ity need 'planners the best of higher education possible estimates of requirements for professionally trained workers in various disciplines to pinpoint educational activities that should be expanded. M a n p o w e r a n d educational p la n n ers need man power projections to develop realistic training programs. In several recent statutes, Congress has required that federally financed education and training programs be set up to meet specific local and regional manpower requirements. V oca tio n a l coun selors use projections to provide information that can be made available to young people, their parents, teachers, or counselors on long-range employment trends by occupational V oca tio n a l educators need projections of employ ment in certain occupations to set up high school and post secondary training programs or to pro field to help them make sound vocational choices. I n d u s tr y a n d governm ent rely on projections in policy planning for recruitment, salary scales, mote apprenticeship training to provide trained training, workers in these occupations. research programs. scholarship plans, and expansion of A ppendix tables Page Labor Force: A -l. Total population b y age, color, and sex July 1, 1960, 1968, and pro A -2 . T otal labor force b y sex and age, annual averages 1960, 1968, and pro jected 1980________________________________________________________________ T otal labor force by color, sex, and age, 1960, 1968, and projected 40 A -3 . 1980_____________________________________________________________________ Labor force participation rates by color, sex, and age, 1960, 1968, and 41 A -4 . projected 1980____________________________________________________________ 41 A -5 . Educational attainment of the civilian labor force, 25 years old and jected 1980________________________________________________________________ over, b y color, average 1 967-69 and projected 1980_________________ 39 42 Gross National Product: A -6 . Factors determining gross national product 1957, 1965, 1968, and projected 1980____________________________________________________________ 42 A -7 . Part-tim e employm ent as a percent of total employment, 1 9 5 6 -6 8 ___ 43 A -8 . Personal consumption expenditures b y major type of goods and serv A -9 . State and local government purchases of goods and services b y func ices, 1957, 1965, 1968 and projected 1980_____________________________ tion, selected years and projected 1980________________________________ A -1 0 . Alternative gross national product annual rate of change, 1 9 6 5 -8 0 ._ 43 44 44 Output and Output Per M an-hour: A -ll. Dom estic output be detailed industries, selected periods and pro A -1 2 . Ten selected industries projected to grow rapidly in real output, A -1 3 . Ten selected industries projected to grow slowly in real output, A -1 4 . Industries with significant changes in projected output growth rates A - l 5. Rates of change in output per man-hour b y detailed industry pro jected 1 9 6 5 -8 0 __________________________________________________________ 1 9 6 5 -8 0 __________________________________________________________________ 1 9 6 5 -8 0 __________________________________________________________________ for the period 1 9 6 5 -8 0 in relation to 1 9 5 7 -6 5 _______________________ jected for the period 1 9 6 5 -8 0 _____________ 45 47 47 48 48 Em ploym ent Industries: A -1 6 . Total civilian employment by major industry group, 1960, 1965, A - l 8. 1968, and projected 1980______________________________________________ Total civilian employment b y major industry group, average annual rates of change, 1 965-80 and 1 9 6 8 -8 0 ________________________________ Total civilian employment by detailed industries, 1960, 1965, 1968, A -1 9 . Total civilian employment by detailed industries, average annual A -2 0 . W age and salary employment by major industry group 1960, 1965, A -1 7 . and projected 1980_____________________________________________________ rates of change 1 9 6 5 -8 0 and 1 9 6 8 -8 0 _________________________________ 1968, and projected 1980______________________________________________ 49 49 50 51 52 3tf Appendix tables— Continued Em ploym ent Industries— Continued Page A -2 1 . W age and salary employment by major industry group, average A -2 2 . W age and salary employment b y detailed industry, 1965, 1968, and A -2 3 . Comparison of B L S employment data with total labor force, 1960, 1968, and projected 1980____________________________________________ _ annual rates of change, 1 9 6 5 -8 0 and 1 9 6 8 -8 0 _______________________ projected 1980__________________________________________________________ 53 53 57 E m p loym en t: Occupations: A -2 4 . Em ploym ent b y m ajor occupational group, 1968, and projected 1980 requirements____________________________________________________________ A -2 5 . Em ploym ent and average annual openings in selected occupations, 1960, and projected 1980 requirements__________________ ___________ _ 58 A -2 6 . Occupations that are expected to grow rapidly during the 1970’s____ 59 A -2 7 . Occupations that are expected to grow slowly during the 1970’s ____ 59 38 57 Table A - l . Total population by age, color, and sex, J u ly 1, 1960, 1968, and projected 1980 Total Sex and age White Negro and other races 1960 1968 1980i 1960 1968 19801 1960 1968 Population, all ages_________ ____ ______________________ 180,684 201,166 235,212 160,033 176,663 204,244 20,651 24, 503 30,967 BOTH SEXES 16 years and over____________________________________________ 16 to 19 years____________ ________ ______________________ 20 to 24 years______ _______ ______ __________ ____________ 25 to 34 years._____ _______ _________ _____ ______________ 35 to 44 years___ _________ _____ ________________________ 45 to 54 y e a rs ...____ _______________________ ______ _____ 55 to 64 years___ ______________ ______________________ _ 65 years and over________ ________________________ ____ 121,817 10,673 11,100 22,952 24, 226 20, 586 15,634 16,645 137,659 14, 361 15, 788 23, 966 23,648 22, 888 17,879 19,129 166, 554 16,940 20,997 36,997 25,376 22,147 21,032 23, 063 109, 279 9,393 9,747 20, 264 21,692 18, 570 14,231 15,382 122,889 12,418 13,875 21,125 20, 984 20,613 16, 250 17,623 146,919 14,301 18, 014 32, 214 22,431 19,711 19,056 21,195 12, 538 1,280 1,353 2,688 2, 534 2, 016 1,403 1,264 14,770 1,943 1,913 2,840 2,665 2, 274 1,631 1,507 19,635 2,638 2,983 4, 783 2, 946 2,437 1,976 1,869 MALE 16 years and over_________________ _______ ____ ______________ 16 to 19 years........................................................................ . 20 to 24 years__________ ________ _____________________ .. 25 to 34 years__________ ________ ________________________ 35 to 44 "years_________ ___________ ____ _________ 45 to 54 years_____ _______ _______ ______________ ______ 55 to 64 "years......... ................................ ............................................. 65 years and over______________ ________________________ _ 59,420 5,398 5, 553 11,347 11,878 10,148 7,564 7,530 66, 538 7, 299 7,976 11,915 11,588 11,073 8,492 8,194 80,332 8,626 10, 596 18, 557 12, 576 10,726 9, 745 9, 507 53,408 4, 763 4, 905 10,092 10,675 9,166 6,874 6,933 59, 527 6,328 7, 028 10, 564 10, 361 10, 008 7,719 7, 518 70, 997 7,300 9,117 16, 209 11,179 9,624 8,855 8,713 6, Oil 635 648 1,255 1,203 982 690 598 7, 010 971 948 1,351 1,227 1,065 773 676 9,336 1,325 1,479 2,348 1,397 1,102 890 794 FEMALE 16 years and over..____ ___________ ______ ____________________ 16 to 19 y e a rs ...______ _________ ______ __________________ 20 to 24 years_____ _____ _______ ______ ________ _________ 25 to 34 years________ ___________________________________ 35 to 44 years___ ______ _____ ___________________________ 45 to 54 years_________ ________ _________________________ 55 to 64 years____________ _______ _______________________ 65 years and over................................................................................ 62, 397 5,275 5, 547 11,605 12,348 10,438 8, 070 9,115 71,121 7,061 7,811 12, 050 12, 060 11,814 9,389 10,936 86, 222 8,314 10,401 18,440 12,801 11,422 11,287 13,557 55,871 4, 630 4,842 10,172 11,017 9,404 7,357 8,449 63,362 6, 090 6,847 10, 561 10,623 10,605 8,531 10,105 75,922 7,001 8, 897 16, 005 11,252 10,027 10,201 12,482 6,527 645 705 1,433 1,331 1,034 713 666 7,760 972 965 1,489 1,438 1,209 858 831 10,299 1,313 1,504 2,435 1,549 1,335 1,086 1,075 i Series C population projection. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 1980 i Series P-25: for 1960, no. 241; for 1968, no. 416; for 1980, no. 381 Series C projection. 39 Table A -2 . Total labor force, b y sex and age, annual averages, 1960, 1968, and projected 1980 [Numbers in thousands] Change, 1960 to 1968 Sex and age 19601 1968 Total Projected 1980 Change, 1968 to 1980 Annual average Number Percent distribu tion Number Rate 2 Total Annual average Number Percent distribu tion Number Rate 2 BOTH SEXES 16 years and over________________________ 16 to 24 years_______________________ 72,104 12,720 82,272 18,183 100,727 23,130 10,168 5,463 100.0 53.7 1,271 683 1.6 4.5 18,455 4,947 100.0 26.8 1,538 412 1.7 2.0 16 to 19_____________________ _ 20 to 24________________________ 5,223 7,497 7,144 11,039 8,344 14,786 1,921 3, 542 18.9 34.8 240 443 3.9 4.8 1,200 3,747 6.5 20.3 100 312 1.3 2.4 25 to 34____ _______________________ 35 to 44____________________________ 45 to 6 4 .____ ______________________ 15,099 16,779 24,12(7 16,480 16,990 27,464 26,242 18,794 29,293 1,381 211 3,337 13.6 2.1 32.8 173 26 417 1.1 0.2 1.6 9,762 1,804 1,829 52.9 9.8 9.9 814 150 152 3.9 0.8 0.5 46 to 54_______________ ____ ________ 55 to 64____________________________ 65 years and over____________________ 14,718 9,409 3,379 16,496 10,968 3,154 16,341 12,952 3,268 1,778 1,559 -2 2 5 17.5 15.3 - 2 .2 222 195 -2 8 1.4 1.9 -0 .9 -1 5 5 1,984 114 -.8 10.8 .6 -1 3 165 10 MALE 16 years and over...... .......................................... 16 to 24 years............................................. 48,933 8,101 53, 030 10,984 63,612 13,690 4,097 2,883 40.3 28.4 512 360 1.0 3.8 10, 582 2,706 57.3 14.7 882 226 1.5 1.8 16 to 19................................................ 20 to 24___________ ________ ____ 3,162 4,939 4,196 6,788 4,895 8,795 1,034 1,849 10.2 18.2 129 231 3.5 4.0 699 2,007 3.8 10.9 58 167 1.3 2.2 25 to 34____________________________ 35 to 44____________________________ 45 to 54----------------------------------- ----------55 to 64 years............................................... 65 years and over____________________ 10,940 11,454 9, 568 6,445 2,425 11,376 11,122 10,364 7,030 2,154 17,815 12, 086 10, 082 7,849 2,090 436 -3 3 2 796 585 -271 4.3 - 3 .3 7.8 5.8 -2 .7 55 -4 2 100 73 -3 4 0.5 -0 .4 1.0 1.1 - 1 .5 6,439 964 -2 8 2 819 -6 4 34.9 5.2 - 1 .5 4.4 -.3 537 80 -2 4 68 -5 3.7 0.7 - 0 .2 0.9 - 0 .3 23,171 4,619 29,242 7,198 37,115 9,440 6,071 2,580 59.7 25.4 759 322 2.9 5.5 7,873 2,241 42.7 12.1 656 187 2.0 2.3 16 to 19______________ ______ _ 20 to 24________________________ 2,061 2,558 2,948 4,251 3,449 5,991 887 1,693 8.7 16.7 111 212 4.5 6.3 501 1,740 2.7 9.4 42 145 1.3 2.9 25 to 3 4 . . . ________ _________________ 35 to 44____________________________ 45 to 54______________ __________ _ 55 to 64......... ............................................ 65 years and over____ ________ _______ 4,159 5,325 5,150 2,964 954 5,104 5,869 6,132 3,938 999 8,427 6,708 6,259 5,103 1,178 945 544 982 974 45 9.3 5.4 9.7 9.6 .4 118 68 123 122 6 2.6 1.2 2.2 3.6 0.6 3,323 839 127 1,165 179 18.0 4.5 .7 6.3 1.0 277 70 11 97 15 4.2 1.1 0.2 2.2 1.4 -0 .1 1.4 0.3 FEMALE 16 years and over________________ ______ _ 16 to 24 years_______________ _____ _ 1 Based on revised population and therefore differ from published figures for 1960. 40 2 Compounded continuously. Table A -3 . Total labor force by color, sex, and age, 1960, 1968, and projected 1980 [In thousands] Negro and other races White Sex and age 1960 1960 1980 1968 1980 1968 BOTH SEXES 16 years and over_______________ ____ ____________________ 16-19 years._____ _______________________________ 20-24 years________________________________ _____ 25-34 years______________________________________ 35-44 y e a rs ...______ ____________________________ 45-64 years______________________________________ 65 years and over_________________________________ 64,210 4,654 6, 585 13,228 14, 883 21,747 3,113 73,166 6,319 9,684 14,419 15, 039 24, 821 2, 883 88,634 7,128 12,709 22, 850 16,637 26, 321 2,989 7,894 569 912 1,871 1,896 2, 380 266 9,106 825 1,355 2,060 1,951 2, 644 270 12, 093 1,216 2, 077 3,392 2,157 2,972 279 44,119 2, 801 4,370 9,777 10, 346 14, 582 2, 243 47,708 3,707 5,993 10,150 10,015 15, 862 1,980 56,374 4,193 7, 599 15,646 10,791 16, 230 1,915 4,814 361 569 1,163 1,108 1,431 182 5,322 489 795 1,225 1,106 1,532 174 7,238 702 1,196 2,169 1,295 1,701 175 20, 091 1,853 2,215 3,451 4, 537 7,165 870 25,457 2,612 3,691 4, 269 5,024 8,959 903 32, 260 2, 935 5,110 7,204 5,846 10, 091 1,074 3, 080 208 343 708 788 949 84 3,784 336 560 835 845 1,112 96 4,855 514 881 1,223 862 1,271 104 MALE 16 years and over_____ ______ ____________________________ 16-19 y e a rs ..._____ ____ ________________________ 20-24 years______________________________________ 25-34 years____________ _____ _______ ________ ___ 35-44 years___________ _____ _______________ . 45-64 years___________ _______ ____________ ______ 65 years and over______________________________ .. FEMALE 16 years and over________________________________________ 16-19 years........................................... ............................. 20-24 years................... ................. .................................... 25-34 years____ ____________________ _________ _ 35-44 years............................ ........................................... 45-64 years_______________________ ______________ 65 years and over.................................................................. Table A -4 . Labor force participation rates,1 by color, sex, and age, 1960, 1968, and projected 1980 White Total Sex and age Total 16 years and over.......................................................... ....... 1960 1968 1980 1960 1968 Negro and other races 1980 1960 1968 1980 59.2 59.8 60.5 58.8 59.5 60.3 63.0 61.7 61.6 82.4 58.6 88.9 96.4 96.4 94.3 85.2 32.2 79.7 57.5 85.1 95.5 96.0 93.6 82.8 26.3 79.2 56.7 83.0 96.0 96.1 94.0 80.5 22.0 82.6 58.8 89.1 96.9 96.9 94.8 85.7 32.4 80.1 58.6 85.3 96.1 96.7 94.2 83.3 26.3 79.4 57.4 83.3 96.5 96.5 94.3 80.8 22.0 80.1 56.8 87.8 92.7 92.1 89.4 80.1 30.4 75.9 50.4 83.9 90.7 90.1 87.7 77.4 25.7 77.5 53.0 80.9 92.4 92.7 91.1 78.3 22.0 37.1 39.1 46.1 35.8 43.1 49.3 36.7 10.5 41.1 41.7 54.4 42.4 48.7 51.9 41.9 9.1 43.0 41.5 57.6 45.7 52.4 54.8 45.2 8.7 36.0 40.0 45.7 33.9 41.2 48.2 35.8 10.3 40.2 42.9 53.9 40.4 47.3 51.1 41.5 8.9 42.5 41.9 57.4 45.0 52.0 54.5 45.0 8.6 47.2 32.2 48.7 49.4 59.2 59.8 46.4 12.6 48.8 34.6 58.0 56.1 58.8 59.1 46.3 11.6 47.1 39.1 58.6 50.2 55.6 57.2 46.8 9.7 MALE 16 years and over...................................................................................... 16 to 19 y e a rs ................................................................................... 20 to 24 years______________________ ____________ _______ _ 25 to 34 years__________ _______ _____________ ____________ 35 to 44 years....... ......... ....................... .............................................. 45 to 54 years..................................................... .................................. 55 to 64 years............... .......................................................... ......... . 65 years and o v e r..________ __________ ____ _________ ____ FEMALE 16 years and over................................. .............................. ........................ 16 to 19 years.......................................... .............................................. 20 to 24 years___________ ____________ ___________________ 25 to 34 years.................................................................................. . 35 to 44 years___________ ____ ____ ____ __________________ 45 to 54 years___________ ____________ ___________________ 55 to 64 years_________ _____ ____ ______ _________________ 65 years and o v e r..._________________ ____ _______________ 1 total labor force as percent of total population. 41 Table A -5 . Educational attainment of the civilian labor force 25 years old and over b y color, average 1967-69, and projected 1980 White Total Years of school completed 1967-69 average 1980 Negro and other races 1980 1967-69 average 1967-69 average 1980 Number (thousands of persons 25 years old and over) Total.____ _______________________________________________________________ Less than 4 years of high school...............................................................................................— Elementary: less than 8 years___________ ______ ___________ ______ ___________ 8 years........ ........... ............................................- ...............................- ........... High school: 1 to 3 years_____________________________________________________ 63,618 24,723 6, 551 6,967 11,205 76,327 21,846 4, 366 4,679 12, 801 56,824 20, 578 4,675 6,225 9,678 67,631 18,027 3,141 4,099 10,787 6,794 4,145 1,876 742 1,527 8,696 3,819 1,225 580 2, 014 4 years of high school or more____________________________________________________ High school: 4 years...------------- ------------ ------------------------ ------------ ------------------------College: 1 year or more_____________________________________________________ 1 to 3 years.......................... ......... ......................................................................... 4 years or more___________ ____________________ ____ _____________ 38,895 23,135 15, 760 7, 024 8,736 54,481 32,375 22,106 9,185 12, 921 36,246 21,452 14, 794 6, 548 8, 246 49, 601 29,217 20, 384 8,376 12, 008 2,649 1,683 966 476 490 4,880 3,158 1,722 809 913 Percent distribution T o ta l...-------- -------- ---------------- ------------ -----------------------------------------------------------Less than 4 years of high school------------- ------------ --------------- -----------------------------------------Elementary: less than 8 years------------------ --------------------------------------------------- --------8 years__________________________________ _____________________ High school: 1 to 3 years------------------------------- --------- ------------------ -------------------------- 100.0 38.9 10.3 11.0 17.6 100.0 28.7 5.8 6.1 16.8 100.0 36.2 8.2 11.0 17.0 100.0 26.8 4.7 6.1 16.0 100.0 61.0 27.6 10.9 22.5 100.0 44.0 14.1 6.7 23.2 4 years of high school or more---------------- --------------- ------------------------------------------------------High school: 4 years------- --------------- --------- -------------------- --------------------------------------College: 1 year or m ore.._____ __________________________ _________ ________ 1 to 3 years...... ................. .......................................................................... 4 years or more................................................................................ ................ 61.1 36.4 24.7 11.0 13.7 71.3 42.4 28.9 12.0 16.9 63.8 37.8 26.0 11.5 14.5 73.4 43.2 30.2 12.4 17.8 39.0 24.8 14.2 7.0 7.2 56.1 36.3 19.8 9.3 10.5 Table A -6 . Factors determining gross national product 1957, 1965, 1968, and projected 1980 Average Annual Rate of Change > Projected 1980 1965-80 Services economy Durables economy 1957 Item 1965 1968 3-per cent unemployment 4-per cent unemployment 3-percent unemployment Total labor force (thousands)___ 69,729 77,177 82,272 100,727 100,727 100,727 2,859 2,817 2,940 3,366 3,918 2,940 Employment (establish70,953 77,689 84,772 102, 896 101,867 102,896 9,756 11,994 14,414 18,500 18,315 18,100 4,531 5,609 4,900 4,851 5,100 4,569 8,805 13,600 13, 464 13, 000 7,425 State and local. 5,225 Private...................... 61,197 65,695 70,358 84,396 83,552 84, 796 Hours paid for (annual 2,000 1,977 average) private.. . . . 2,085 2,052 1,977 1,977 Total man’-Hour (millions) private3----- 127,640 134,781 140, 542 166,858 165,189 167,642 GNP per man-hour (1968 5. 48 7.82 7.82 dollars) private........ . 4.99 7. 82 3. 82 Total GNP (billions of 553.8 865.7 1,427.8 1,415.7 1,429.6 754.3 1968 dollars)........ . 95.3 123.8 122.8 120.9 66.3 81.1 32.8 39.5 35.4 35.2 36.7 Federal............. 32.3 34.0 48.3 55.8 88.4 87.6 84.2 State and local. 770.4 1,304.0 1,292.9 1,308.7 673.2 Private...................... 487.5 21.7 24.9 34.8 34.5 34.8 Agriculture___ 25.3 745.5 1,269.2 1,258.4 1,273.9 Nonagriculture. 465.8 647.9 4-per cent unemployment 3-percent unemployment 4-percent unemployment 3-percent unemployment 4-percent unemployment 3-percent unemployment 4-percent unemployment 3-percent unemployment 4-percent unemployment 100,727 3,918 1.3 2.1 1.8 -0 .9 1.8 1.0 1.8 -0 .9 1.8 1.0 1.7 0.4 1.7 2.4 1.7 0.4 1.7 2.4 101,867 17,918 5, 049 12,869 83,949 1.1 2.6 0.1 4.5 0.9 1.9 2.9 0.5 4.1 1.7 1.8 2.8 0.4 4.0 1.6 1.9 2.8 0.7 3.8 1.7 1.8 2.7 0.7 3.7 1.6 1.6 2.1 - 1 .1 3.7 1.5 1.5 2.0 -0 .1 3.6 1.4 1.6 1.9 -0 .8 3.3 1.6 1.5 1.8 - 0 .9 3.2 1.5 1,977 - 0 .2 -0 .1 - 0 .2 - 0 .2 -0 .2 -0 .2 - 0 .1 - 0 .1 -0 .1 165,996 0.7 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.4 7.82 3.4 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 1,417.7 119.7 36.4 83.3 1,298.0 34.5 1,263.5 4.0 2.4 0.2 4.5 4.1 1.9 4.2 4.3 2.8 0.5 4.1 4.5 2.1 4.6 4.3 2.7 0.5 4.0 4.4 2.1 4.5 4.4 2.6 0.8 3.8 4.5 2.1 4.6 4.3 2.6 0.7 3.7 4.4 2.1 4.6 4.3 2.2 - 0 .9 3.9 4.5 2.8 4.5 4.2 2.1 -1 .0 3.8 4.4 2.8 4.5 4.3 2.0 -0 .6 3.5 4.5 2.8 4.6 4.2 1.9 - 0 .7 3.4 4.4 2.8 4.5 1 Compound interest rate between terminal years. 2 The government employment to be consistent with the government product is from the National Income Accounts. 42 1968-80 195765 Services economy Durables economy Services economy Durables economy 3 Man-hours are estimated for the private sector only since the assumption is made of no change in hours of the government sector, Table A-7. Part-time employment as a percent of total employment, 1956-68 Nonagricultural part-time work for noneconomic reasons1 Total employment (labor force) Year Part time as a percent of total unemployment Total employment labor force Year (in thousands) Nonagricultural part-time work for noneconomic reasons1 Part time as a percent of total employment (in thousands) ..............- - 1956 1957 ___________ 1958......... .............. . 1959________________ 63,802 64,071 63,036 64,630 4,330 4,515 4,542 4,889 6.8 7.0 7.2 7.6 I960 ___ _____ _______ 1961 1962..................... - ......... 65,778 65,746 66,702 5,175 5,361 5,700 7.9 8.2 8.5 i Noneconomic reason means that these workers are working part-time because they prefer part-time to full-time work; among workers who prefer part-time jobs are women who have home responsibilities; workers who have limited physical capac ities; and workers who combine part-time work with their schooling. 1963________________ 1964________________ 67,762 69,305 1965 ________ 71,088 1966 ___________ ___________ ___________ 72,895 1967................. ............... 74,372 1968________________ 75,920 6,021 6,448 8.9 9.3 6,740 7,441 8,048 8,452 9.5 10.2 10.8 11.1 Source: Employment and Earnings, Volume 15 No. 8, February 1969, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Table 8. Personal consumption expenditures by m ajor type of goods and services, 1957, 1965, 1968 and projected to 1980, and average annual rates of change Projected 1980 Services economy Major type of goods 1957 1965 1968 or services 3percent unem ploy ment 4percent unem ploy ment Projected 1980 Durables economy 3percent unem ploy ment 4percent unem ploy ment Services economy 1957 1965 1968 Billions of dollars 3percent unem ploy ment 4percent unem ploy ment Average annual rate of change, 1965-80 Durables economy 3percent unem ploy ment 4percent unem ploy ment Durables economy Services economy Durables economy 3percent unem ploy ment 4percent unem ploy ment 3percent unem ploy ment 4percent unem ploy ment 3percent unem ploy ment 4percent unem ploy ment 3percent unem ploy ment 3percent unem ploy ment Percent distribution Total personal consumption expenditures. 342.8 472.0 536.6 903.2 895.6 888.9 881.4 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 DURABLE GOODS.. 42.9 68.8 83.3 137.6 136.5 146.8 145.5 12.5 14.6 15.5 Automobiles and parts.................. 19.3 31.2 37.0 Furniture and household equipment------- 17.9 28.1 34.2 Other..................... b. 7 9.5 12.1 Services economy Average annual rate of change, 1968-80 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.2 15.2 15.2 16.5 16.5 4.7 4.7 5.2 5.1 4.3 4.2 4.8 4.8 52.1 51.7 56.3 55.8 5.6 6.6 6.9 5.8 5.8 6.3 6.3 3.4 3.4 4.0 3.9 2.9 2.8 3.6 3.5 62.9 22.6 62.4 22.4 66.5 24.0 65.9 23.8 5.2 1.7 6.0 2.0 6.4 2.3 7.0 2.5 7.0 2.5 7.5 2.7 7.5 2.7 5.5 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 6.3 5.8 6.3 5.2 5.3 5.1 5.3 5.7 5.9 5.6 5.8 NONDURABLE GOODS.................. 162.4 209.1 230.6 346.0 343.2 335.0 332.2 47.4 44.3 43.0 38.3 38.3 37.7 37.7 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.1 Food and beverages____ ____ Clothing and shoes________ Gasoline and o il.. Other.................... 89.2 107.7 115.0 172.0 170.4 166.2 164.7 26.0 22.8 21.4 19.0 19.0 18.7 18.7 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.8 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.0 7.1 2.9 9.3 7.1 2.9 9.3 7.0 2.8 9.2 7.0 2.8 9.2 3.0 3.1 4.4 3.0 3.1 4.3 2.8 2.9 4.2 2.7 2.9 4.1 2.7 2.6 4.4 2.7 2.5 4.4 2.5 2.3 4.2 2.4 2.3 4.1 SERVICES________ 137.5 194.1 222.8 419.1 415.5 407.1 403.7 40.1 41.1 41.5 46.4 46.4 45.8 45.8 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.1 45.5 67.4 77.4 156.4 155.1 154.1 152.9 13.3 14.3 14.4 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.3 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.6 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.9 19.3 26.8 31.2 55.5 55.0 53.7 53.2 5.6 5.7 5.8 12.1 14.0 16.1 27.9 27.7 26.8 26.5 3.5 3.0 3.0 60.6 85.9 98.1 179.3 177.7 172.5 171.1 17.7 18.2 18.3 6.1 3.1 19.9 6.1 3.1 19.8 6.0 3.0 19.4 6.0 3.0 19.4 5.0 4.7 5.0 4.9 4.6 4.9 4.7 4.4 4.7 4.7 4.4 4.7 4.9 4.7 5.2 4.8 4.6 5.1 4.6 4.3 4.8 4.5 4.3 4.7 Housing................ Household operation.................. Transportation... Other..................... 29.8 40.8 46.3 11.9 16.4 19.1 31.5 44.2 50.1 63.8 26.0 84.2 63.4 25.8 83.6 62.0 25.2 81.6 61.5 25.1 80.9 8.7 3.5 9.2 8.6 3.5 9.4 8.6 3.6 9.3 43 Table A-9. State and local government purchases of goods and services by function, selected years and projected 1980 Average annual rates Df change 1980 1965-80 1957 Function 1965 1968 Services economy 3-percent unem ployment 1957-68 4-percent unem ployment 1968-80 3-percent 4-percent 3-percent 4-percent unemploy unemploy unemploy unemploy ment ment ment ment (Billions of 1968 dollars) $54.9 $82.6 $100. 7 $180.7 $179.2 5.7 5.4 5.3 5.0 4.9 Education. --------------------------------------Elementary and secondary______ _______________ Higher________________________________________ Other_____ _______________ ____________ ___ _____ . . _______ Noneducation... Highways____________________ ______ __________ Public health and sanitation_________________ ____ Hospitals___________ ________________ ____ Health_____________ ____ __________________ Sanitation_________________________________ Natural resources__________________________ Parks and recreation________________________ Enterprises______ _____ ______ ____________ 22.9 19.6 2.7 0.6 32.0 9.8 5.7 4.2 0.9 0.6 1.5 0.9 3.6 36.3 29.6 5.6 1.1 46.3 13.6 7.3 5.6 1.0 0.7 1.7 1.4 5.7 42.9 30.5 9.9 2.5 57.9 14.9 9.7 7.4 1.4 0.9 2.3 1.5 6.4 68.7 41.0 23.5 4.2 112.0 19.8 15.2 11.3 2.3 1.6 4.2 4.6 16.7 68.1 40.6 23.3 4.2 111. 1 19.6 15.1 11.2 2.3 1.6 4.2 4.6 16.6 5.9 4. 1 12.5 13.9 5.5 3.9 5.0 5.3 4.1 3.8 4.0 4.8 5.4 4.3 2.2 10.0 9.3 6.1 2.5 5.0 4.8 5.7 5.7 6.2 8.3 7.4 4.3 2.1 10.0 9.3 6.0 2.5 5.0 4.7 5.7 5.7 6.2 8.3 7.4 4.0 2.5 7.5 4.4 5.7 2.4 3.8 3.6 4.2 4.9 5.1 9.8 8.3 3.9 2.4 7.4 4.4 5.6 2.3 3.8 3.5 4.2 4.9 5.1 9.8 8.3 All other functions_________ ___ _________ _________ 10.5 16.6 23.2 51.5 51.0 7.5 7.8 7.8 6.9 6.8 Total purchases.._ __________ _______________ Table A - 10. Alternative gross national product annual rate of change, 1965-80 Unemployment rate 1980 projected percent change in annual hours per person Projected annual change in GNP pe man-hour (total economy >) 2.3 percent 2.6 percent 2.9 percent Average annual rate of change in real gross national product 1965-80 2.5-percent unemployment_____ _______________________________________________________ (-.1 ) (-.2 ) (-.3 ) 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.8 4.7 4.6 3.0-percent unemployment____ ____ ________________________________________ __________ (-.1 ) (-.2 ) (-.3 ) 4.1 4.0 3.9 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.7 4.6 4.5 3.5-percent unemployment................... .............................. ......... ....................................... ....................... (-.1 ) (-.2 ) (-.3 ) 4.1 4.0 3.9 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.0-percent unemployment...___________________________ ______________________________ (-.1 ) (-.2 ) (-.3 ) 4.1 4.0 3.9 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.5-percent unemployment_____________________________________________________________ (-.1 ) (-.2 ) (-.3 ) 4.0 3.9 3.8 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.6 4.5 4.4 1 The GNP per man-hour for the total economy is .3 to .4 lower because the government has been added in with no change in output per man-hour. 44 Table A -11. Domestic output by detailed industries, selected periods and projected 1965-80 [Average annual rates of change at producers' value in 1968 dollars *] 196 5-80 Industry name and number 1947-65 1947-57 1957-65 Services economy Durables economy 3*percent unemploy ment 4-percent unemploy ment 3-percent unemploy ment 4-percent unemploy ment 1. 2. 3. 4. Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries__________________________________________ Livestock and livestock products______________________________________________ Other agricultural products__________________________________________________ Forestry and fishery products..______________________________________________ Agricultural, forestry and fishery services______________________________________ 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.4 1.7 0.9 2.2 2.2 2.1 1.7 2.7 1.4 1.4 2.9 2.8 3.0 2.0 1.5 2.9 2.8 3.0 2.0 1.5 2.8 2.7 2.9 2.5 1.5 2.7 2.6 2.9 2.4 1.4 5. 6. /. 8. 9. 10. Mining_____ . . . _______ ____ . ________________________________________ Iron and ferroalloy ores mining______________________________________ _______ Nonferrous metal ores mining. ----- ------- --------------------------------------------------------------Coal mining ___________________________________ _________________________ Crude petroleum and natural gas. __________________________________________ Stone and clay mining and quarrying__________________________________________ Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining______________ _____ _______________ ____ 2.2 2.7 1.8 - 1 .8 3.3 5. 3 6.1 2.5 3.1 3.1 -3 .1 4.6 6.2 6.2 1.7 2.3 0.1 0.0 1.8 4.2 6.1 3.4 2.5 4.8 1.8 3.4 4.2 5.9 3.4 2.5 4.8 1.8 3.4 4.2 5.9 3.5 3.0 5.0 1.8 3.4 4.5 6.0 3.4 2.9 4.9 1.7 3.3 4. 4 5.9 Construction_____________________________________________________________ 11. New construction__________________________________________________________ 12. Mainenance and repair construction___________________________________________ 4.7 4.9 4.2 4.9 5.5 2.9 4.4 4.1 5.9 4.2 4.4 3.2 4.2 4.4 3.2 4.4 4.8 3.2 4.4 4.7 3.1 Manufacturing___________________________________________________________ Ordnance and accessories___________________________________________________ Food and kindred products-------- . . . . --------------------------------------------------------------Tobacco manufactures------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------- ------Broad and narrow fabrics, yarn and thread mills-----------------------------------------------------Miscellaneous textile goods and floor coverings. .. ---------------------------------------------- 3.8 7.4 2.4 1.3 2.4 4.4 3.4 3.8 2.3 -2 .1 3.5 3.4 3.9 4.7 3.3 6.8 9.3 7.1 2.6 3.9 4.8 - 1 .5 0.5 3.0 5.0 1.6 3.7 3.1 3.8 1.7 3.2 3.0 1.7 2.1 3.4 2.7 1.1 3.4 7.2 8.9 4.6 3.9 4.5 3.3 9.1 13.4 2.2 5.3 3.5 14. 1 2.4 0.3 1.3 2.5 3.4 3.6 1.4 - 3 .6 3.7 2.4 3.6 4.5 3.0 7.5 9.6 7.1 1.2 4.8 2.9 -2 .2 0.4 1.9 5.9 1.3 3.1 3.3 4.7 1.0 2.8 2.4 0.2 1.8 3.0 3.1 -1 .3 1. 8 8.5 7.7 2.6 4.1 2.7 2.1 9.0 12.0 0.9 4.5 20.2 0.9 4.0 6.4 2.2 0.7 8.6 7.7 10.3 9.0 3.6 5.0 4.2 5.4 3.5 4.1 - 0 .4 2.6 2.4 3.7 6.9 3.4 3.9 3.3 - 0 .2 3.4 4.6 4.3 4.9 3.6 6.0 9.0 7.0 4.3 2.8 7.3 -0 .8 0.6 4.4 3.8 1.9 4.3 2.9 2.7 2.7 3.8 3.9 3.6 2.4 4.1 2.3 4.2 4.2 3.2 3.3 2.3 3.7 4.2 3.8 3.7 3.5 0.3 5.0 5.4 4.8 4.4 4.4 5.4 6.8 6.0 4.3 3.5 6.3 - 0 .3 1.4 3.9 4.6 1.9 5.3 3.3 4.2 3.7 3.9 4.2 3.4 3.5 4.2 3.0 4.0 3.4 4.9 10.3 6.5 4.9 5.1 4.7 6.2 8.4 5.5 2.9 2.6 2.9 5.4 8.8 5.6 4.0 6.6 7.0 2.0 6.7 4.7 4.8 4.2 3.2 3.3 2.3 3.7 4.1 3.7 3.6 3.4 0.2 4.9 5.3 4.7 4.3 4.3 5.3 6.7 5.9 4.2 3.4 6.2 - 0 .3 1.4 3.8 4.5 1.8 5.2 3.2 4.1 3.7 3.8 4.1 3.4 3.4 4.1 2.9 3.9 3.3 4.8 10.2 6.4 4.8 5.0 4.6 6.1 8.4 5.4 2.8 2.6 2.9 5.4 8.8 5.5 3.9 6.6 6.9 1.9 6.6 4.6 4.8 4.3 4.9 4.5 5.7 3.2 2.2 3.7 4.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 0.4 5.3 5.4 4.8 4.4 4.3 5.4 6.8 5.7 4.4 3.4 6.4 -0 .4 1.2 4.0 4.8 2.2 5.7 3.1 4.5 4.1 4.1 4.6 3.7 3.8 4.5 3.6 4.4 3.9 5.5 5.4 4.4 5.6 3.1 2.1 3.6 4.2 3.5 3.5 3.6 0.3 5.2 5.4 4.7 4.3 4.3 5.3 6.8 5.6 4.3 3.3 6.4 -0 .4 1.2 3.9 4.8 2.2 5.6 3.0 4.4 4.0 4.0 4.5 3.7 3.8 4.5 3.5 4.3 3.9 5.4 10.8 6.8 5.4 5.3 4.9 7.0 9.2 5.6 3.1 4.6 3.7 6.1 8.9 5.5 3.9 6.5 6.9 2.0 6.5 4.6 4.6 4.2 4.8 5.3 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. 26. 2/. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. 41. 42. 43. 44. 4b. 46. 47. 48. 49. 60. bl. 52. 53. 54. 55. 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. 66. 6/. 68. 69. 70. 71. Miscellaneous fabricated textile products.. ________ _______ ____ ___________ Lumber and wood products, except containers__________________________________ Wooden containers_________________________________________________________ Household furniture________________________________________________________ Other furniture and fixtures_____ _ ______________________________________ Paper and allied products, except container. __________________________________ Paperboard containers and boxes_____________________________________________ Printing and publishing______________________ ______________ _________ Chemicals and selected chemical products. __________________________________ Plastics and synthetic materials______________________________________________ Drugs, cleaning and toilet preparations________________________________________ Paints and allied products______________________________________ . __________ Petroleum refining and related industries_____________________ _ . ________ Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products_____________________________ ____ _ Leather tanning and industrial leather products____________________ . _________ Footwear and other leather products. ____________________________ ___________ Glass and glass products________________________________ ____ _ __________ Stone and clay products_____________________________________________________ Primary iron and steel manufacturing____________________________ __________ Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing______________________________________ Metal containers____________ ____ _ . ____________ ___________ _____ Heating, plumbing and structural metal products________________________________ Stampings, screw machine products and bolts__________________________________ Other fabricated metal products______________________________________________ Engines and turbines_________________________________________ ____________ Farm machinery and equipment.. ____________________________ ______________ Construction, mining and oil field machinery. _ _______________________________ Materials handling machinery and equipment __________________________________ Metalworking machinery and equipment_______________________________________ Special industry machinery and equipment_______ _____________ __________ General industrial machinery and equipment . __________________________________ Machine shop products___________ . . . _____________________________________ Office, computing and accounting machines____________ _______________________ Service industry machines___________________________________________________ Electric industrial equipment and apparatus_____________ _____________________ Household appliances_____________ ______________________________________ Electric lighting and wiring equipment_________________________________________ Radio, television and communication equipment________ ___________ __________ Electronic components and accessories_________________________________________ Miscellaneous electrical machinery, equipment and supplies.. _. ________________ Motor vehicles and equipment________________________________________________ Aircraft and parts__________________________________________________________ Other transportation equipment________________________________ ________ Scientific and controlling instruments___________ _____________________________ Optical, ophthalmic and photographic equipment________________________________ Miscellaneous manufacturing_________________ ___ ___________________________ Transportation and warehousing______________________________________________ Communications and public utilities_________________________________________ Communications, excluding radio and TV broadcasting___________________________ Radio & T V broadcasting_____________________________________ _____________ Electric, gas, water and sanitary services_______________________________________ Wholesale and retail trade___________________________________________________ Finance, insurance and real estate__________________________________________ Finance and insurance___ _________________________________________________ Real estate and rental______________________________________________________ Services and miscellaneous________ ____________ ____________________ 1 1 .1 2.5 4.1 6.7 3.4 1.6 7.5 7.4 7.5 7.5 3.9 5.1 4.4 5.4 4.0 5. 5 5.6 10.5 7.2 3.6 6.8 5.0 9.1 15.2 3.7 6.2 0.7 4.5 4.2 7.1 5.0 2.8 6.0 7.1 4.1 5.7 4.4 5.2 4.7 5.4 4.6 4.4 5.0 5.5 5.5 10.9 6.9 5.5 5.4 5.0 7.0 9.3 5.7 3.1 4.6 3.7 6.1 9.0 5.6 4.0 6.6 6.9 2.1 6.6 4.7 4.7 4.3 4.8 45 Table A - 11. Domestic output by detailed industries, selected periods and projected 1965-80— Continued [Average annual rates of change at producers’ value in 1968 dollars >] 1965-80 Industry name and number Hotels, personal and repair services, excluding auto------------------------------------------------Business services----------------------------------- ------- ----------------------------------------------------Research and development..------------- ----------------------- -------------------------------------------Automobile repair and service_______________________ ________________________ Amusements--------------------- --------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------Medical, educational services and nonprofit organizations_________________________ Government enterprises.------ --------------- ------------------------------------------------------------78. Federal Government enterprises.................... ............................ ............................................ State and local government enterprises_________________ _________ ____ ________ 79. n. 3. 74. 75. 76. 77. i Output is gross duolicated output in constant 1968 prices. ... ,„ r . . , . .... . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Note: 1965 total is consistent with estimates of gross national product published in “Survey of Current Business” , July 1968. 46 1947-65 1947-57 1957-65 2.8 5.2 6.4 3.0 0.2 5.0 4.2 5.4 3.4 2.1 5.2 5.2 2.3 - 1 .5 5.0 3.3 4.9 2.3 3.7 5.3 7.8 3.9 2.3 5.1 5.3 6.1 4.8 Services economy Durables economy 3-percent unemployment 4-percent unemployment 3-percent unemployment 4.6 6.3 6.0 4.8 4.4 5.5 5.3 5.1 5.5 4.5 6.2 5.9 4.7 4.3 5.4 5.3 5.0 5.4 4.3 6.4 6.7 4.6 4.1 5.2 5.2 5.0 5.3 4-percent unemployment 4.3 6.3 6.7 4.6 4.0 5.1 5.1 4.9 5.3 Source: Historical rates based on data from Office of Business Economics, U.S. Department of Commerce. Projections are by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Table A -12. Ten selected industries projected to grow rapidly in real output,1 1965-80 Average annual rate of growth 2 Industry name and number Rank 3-percent unemployment 4-percent unemployment SERVICES ECONOMY 51 63. 57. 66. 28 68. 52. 32. 73. 56. Office, computing and accounting machines----- --------------------------- ------Optical, ophthalmic and photographic equipment------------- -----------------Electronic components and accessories------- ------- - ------- --------------------Communications; except broadcasting-------------------------------- ------- -------Plastics and synthetic materials------------------------------------ ------------------Electric, gas, water and sanitary services.----------------------------------------Service industry machines------ — ------------------------------------------------Rubber and miscellaneous plastics........ ...............- ----------------------------Business services----------------. . . . . . . . . — .........................................Radio, television and communication equipment...... ........... ......... ............. DURABLES ECONOMY 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8-9 8-9 10 10.3 8.8 8.4 7.0 6.8 6.7 6.5 6.3 6.3 6.2 10.2 8.8 8.4 6.9 6.7 6.6 6.4 6.2 6.2 6.1 51. 57 63 56. 66. 52. 28. 74 68. 32 Office, computing and accounting machines............ ..................................... Electronic components and accessories. . . --------------------------- ------- ------Optical, ophthalmic and photographic equipment--------------------------------Radio, television and communication equipment..------------------------------Communications; except broadcasting..---------- ---------------------------------Service industry machines.------------- -------------------------- ---------------------Plastics and synthetic materials---------- ------- -----------------------------------Research and development— --------------------------------------------------------Electric, gas, water and sanitary services----------------------- -------------------Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products--------------------------------------- 1 2 3 4 5-6 5-6 7 8 9 10-11 10.9 9.3 9.0 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.4 10.8 9.2 8.9 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.5 6.4 i Output growth is change in real terms of gross duplicated output. This differs from gross output originating in that it counts in the output of each industry its cost of ma terials as well as the products primary to its output which are made in other sectors as secondary products. 2 Average annual rate of change in compound interest between terminal years. Out put is the gross duplicated value stated in 1958 orices. Table A -13. Ten selected industries projected to grow slowly in real o utput,1 1965-80 Average annual rate of growth2 Industry name and number Rank 3-percent unemployment 4-percent unemployment SERVICES ECONOMY Leather tanning and industrial leather products. Footwear and other leather products.............. . Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services......... 7. Coal mining......................... ........... r ..................... 37. Primary iron and steel manufacturing................ 3. Forestry and fishery products..................... ....... 15. Tobacco manufacturers— ................................. 5. Iron and ferro-alloy ores mining......................... 1. Livestock and livestock products..................... 2. Agricultural products except livestock............ .. 33. 34. 4. 1 2 3 4 5 - 0 .3 1.4 1.5 1.8 1.9 - 0 .3 1.4 1.5 11.8 .8 6 2.0 2 .0 8 2.3 2.5 2.3 2.5 7 9 2.8 2.8 10 3.0 3.0 1 2 - 0 .4 - 0 .4 DURABLES ECONOMY 33. 34. 4. 7. 15. 37. 3. 1. 2. 5. Leather tanning and industrial leather products. Footwear and other leather products......... ....... Agricultural, forestry and fishery services-------Coal mining............ ............................................. Tobacco manufacturers......................................... Primary iron and steel manufacturing........ ....... Forestry and fishery products......................... . Livestock and livestock products......................... Agricultural products except livestock...... ......... Iron and ferro-alloy ores mining--------------------- i Output growth is change in real terms of gross duplicated output. This differs from gross output originating in that it counts in the output of each industry its cost of ma terials as well as the products primary to its output which are made in other sectors as secondary products. 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.0 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.9 2.9 2 Average annual rate of change in compound interest between terminal years. Out put is the gross duplicated value stated in 1958 prices. 47 Table A - 14. Industries with significant changes in projected output growth rates for the period 1965-80 in relation to 1957-65 i Projected output growth rates 1.0 percentage points below 1957-65 rates Projected output growth rates 1.0 percentage point above 1957-65 rates Industry Industry 12. 17. 28. 29. 32. 49. 54. 56. 57. 59. 61. 67. 74. 1. 6. 7. 8. 13. 22. 38. 40. 41. 45. 53. 58. 60. 62. 63. 65. 68. 73. 76. Maintenance and repair construction Miscellaneous fabricated textile products Plastics and synthetic materials Drugs, cleaning and toilet preparations Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products General industrial machinery and equipment Household appliances Radio, television and communication equipment Electronic components and accessories Motor vehicles and equipment Other transportation equipment Radio and television broadcasting Research and development Livestock and livestock products Nonferrous metal ores mining Coal mining Crude petroleum and natural gas Ordnance and accessories Household furniture Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing Heating, plumbing and structural metal products Stampings, screw machine products and bolts Construction, mining and oil field machinery Electric industrial equipment and apparatus Miscellaneous electrical machinery and supplies Aircraft and parts Scientific and controlling instruments Optical, ophthalmic and photographic equipment Transportation and warehousing Electric, gas, water and sanitary services Business services Amusements i Industries not shown on this table have projected growth in output for the 1965-80 period that is expected to be less than 1.0 percent per year from their 1957-65 rates. Table A - 15. Rate of change in output per m an-hour1 by detailed industry projected for the period 1965-80 3. 4. 11. 12. 18. 19. 23. 33. 34. 41. 44. 45. 46. 47. 49. 55. 60. 61. 67. 70. 73. 74. 76. 77. 2.5 percent a year or less 2.6 to 3.5 percent a year Industry nameand number 1ndustry name ar.d number Forestry and fishery products Agricultural, forestry and fishery services New construction Maintenance and repair construction Apparel Miscellaneous fabricated textile products Other furniture and fixtures Leather tanning and industrial leather products Footwear and other leather products Stampings, screw machine products and bolts Farm machinery and equipment Construction, mining and oil field machinery Materials handling machinery and equipment Metal working machinery and equipment General industrial machinery and equipment Electric lighting and wiring equipment Aircraft and parts Other transportation equipment Radio and television broadcasting Finance and insurance Business services Research and development Amusements Medical, educational services and nonprofit organiza tions 9. 13. 14. 22. 24. 25. 26. 29. 30. 32. 35. 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. 42. 43. 48. 50. 52. 53. 59. 63. 65. 69. 72. 75. Stone and clay mining and quarrying Ordnance and accessories Food and kindred products Household furniture Paper and allied products except containers Paper board containers and boxes Printing and publishing Drugs, cleaning, and toilet preparations Paints and allied products Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products Glass and glass products Stone and clay products Primary iron and steel manufacturing Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing Metal containers Heating, plumbing and structural metal products Other fabricated metal products Engines and turbines Special industry machinery and equipment Machine shop products Services industry machines Electric industrial equipment and apparatus Motor vehicles and equipment Scientific and controlling instruments Transportation and warehousing Wholesale and retail trade Hotels; personal and repair services, excluding auto Automobile repair and services 3.6 percent a year or more Industry nameand number 1. 2. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 15. 16. 17. 20. 21. 27. 28. 31. 51. 54. 56. 57. 58. 63. 64. 66. 68. 71. Livestock and livestock products Other agricultural products Iron and ferro-alloy ores mining Nonferrous metal ores mining Coal mining Crude petroleum and natural gas Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining Tobacco manufactures Broad and narrow fabrics, yarn and thread mills Miscellaneous textile goods and floor covering Lumber and wood products, except containers Wood containers Chemicals and selected chemical products Plastics and synthetic materials Petroleum refining and related industries Office, computing and accounting machines Household appliances Radio, television and communication equipment Electronic components and accessories Miscellaneous electrical machinery and supplies Optical, ophthalmac ar.d photographic equipment Miscellaneous manufacturing Communications; except broadcasting Electric, gas, water and sanitary services Real estate and rental i Output per man-hour is the same in both structures of the economy; services and durables are at both levels of unemployment. 48 Table A - 16. Total civilian em ploym ent1 by major industry group, 1960, 1965, 1968, and projected 1980 1980 Sector 1960 1965 1968 Services economy Durables economy 3-percent 4-percent 3-percent 4-percent unemployment unemployment unemployment unemployment Total (In thousands)______________________________ 68,868 74, 568 80, 788 99,600 98,600 99,400 98,400 Goods producing________________________________________ 27, 280 27,786 28, 975 31,618 31,300 32,615 32, 286 Agriculture, forestry and fisheries________________________ Mining_______________________________________________ Construction__________________________________________ Manufacturing________________________________________ Durable__________________________________________ Nondurable_______________________________________ 5,699 750 3,641 17,190 9,697 7,493 4,671 667 3,994 18,454 10, 644 7,810 4,154 646 4,050 20,125 11,854 8, 271 3,188 590 5,482 22,358 13,274 9, 084 3,156 584 5,427 22,133 13,141 8, 992 3,192 588 5, 595 23, 240 14,322 8,918 3,160 582 5, 539 23, 005 14,176 8, 829 Service producing____ __________________________________ 41, 588 46, 782 51,813 67, 982 67, 300 66, 785 66,114 Transportation, communication and public utilities__________ Trade_._____________________________________________ Finance, insurance and real estate________________________ Services, including households___________________________ Government__________________________________________ Federal___ ___________ ____ _________ _____________ State and local____________________________________ 4,215 14, 222 2, 981 11,817 8,353 2, 270 6, 083 4,250 15,352 3,367 13,722 10, 091 2,377 7,714 4, 524 16, 604 3,726 15,113 11,846 2,737 9,109 4, 976 20,487 4,639 21,080 16, 800 3, 000 13,800 4, 926 20, 282 4, 593 20,867 16,632 2, 970 13,662 4, 961 20, 501 4, 538 20, 585 16, 200 3, 000 13, 200 4, 911 20, 296 4,493 20,376 16, 038 2,970 13, 068 Total (percent distribution) _____ ______ ________________ 100,0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Goods producing________________________________________ 39.6 37.3 35.9 31.7 31.7 32.8 32.8 Agriculture, forestry and fisheries________________________ Mining_______________________________________________ Construction__________________________________________ Manufacturing________________________________________ Durable__________________________________________ Nondurable.-._________________ ______ ______ ______ 8.3 1.0 5.2 25.0 14.1 11.0 6.3 0.9 5.4 24.7 14.3 10.5 5.1 0.8 5.0 24.9 14.7 10.2 3.2 0.6 5.5 22.4 13.3 9.1 3.2 0.6 5.5 22.4 13.3 9.1 3.2 0.6 5.6 23.4 14.4 9.0 3.2 0.6 5.6 23.4 14.4 9.0 Service producing________________________________________ 60.4 62.7 69.1 68.4 68.4 67.2 67.2 Transportation, communication and public utilities__________ Trade____________ _____________________________ _____ Finance, insurance and real estate________________________ Services, including households.. _______________ ______ __ Government__________________________________________ Federal___________________ ______ ________________ State and local____ ____________ __________ _______ _ 6.1 20.7 4.3 17.2 12.1 3.3 8.8 5.7 20.6 4.5 18.4 13.5 3.2 10.3 5.6 20.6 4.6 18.7 14.7 3.4 11.7 5.0 20.6 4.7 21.2 16.9 3.0 13.9 5.0 20.6 4.7 21.2 16.9 3.0 13.9 5.0 20.6 4.6 20.7 16.3 3.0 13.3 5.0 20.6 4.6 20.7 16.3 3.0 13.3 Table A - 17. Total civilian employment by major industry group, average annual rates of change, 1965-80 and 1968-80 Average annual rates of change, 1968-80 Average annual rates of change, 1965-80 Industry Services economy 3-percent unemploy ment Durables economy 4-percent unemploy ment 3-percent unemploy ment Services economy 4-percent unemploy ment 3-percent unemploy ment Durables economy 4-percent unemploy ment 3-percent unemploy ment 4-percent unemploy ment Total____________________________________________ 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 Agriculture, forestry and fisheries_________________________ Mining_____________ ____ __________ _____ ____ _________ Construction___________________ ______ ________ _____ Manufacturing__________________________________________ Durable___________________________________________ Nondurable________________________________________ Transportation, communications and public utilities___________ Trade________________________________ . ____ Finance, insurance and real estate_________________________ Services including households_____________________________ Government____________________________________________ Federal___________________ _______ _____ State and local______________________________________ - 2 .5 - 0 .8 2.1 1.3 1.5 1.0 1.1 1.9 2.2 2.9 3.5 1.6 4.0 -2 .5 -0 .9 2.1 1.2 1.4 0.9 1.0 1.9 2.1 2.8 3.4 1.5 3.9 - 2 .5 - 0 .8 2.3 1.5 2.0 0.9 1.0 1.9 2.0 2.7 3.2 1.6 3.6 - 2 .5 - 0 .9 2.2 1.5 1.9 0.8 1.0 1.9 1.9 2.7 3.1 1.5 3.6 - 2 .2 - 0 .8 2.6 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.8 1.8 1.9 2.8 3.0 0.8 3.5 - 2 .2 -0 .8 2.5 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.7 1.7 1.8 2.7 2.9 0.7 3.4 - 2 .2 -0 .8 2.7 1.2 1.6 0.6 0.8 1.8 1.7 2.6 2.6 0.8 3.1 - 2 .2 - 0 .9 2.6 1.1 1.5 0.5 0.7 1.7 1.6 2.5 2.6 0.7 3.1 49 Table A - 18. Total civilian em p lo ym e n t1 by detailed industries, I960, 1965, 1968, and projected 1980 In thousands] Projected 1980 Industry name and number Total. Apiculture, Forestry and Fisheries..................................................... 1. Livestock and livestock products.......................................... 2. Other agricultural products................................................... 3. Forestry and fishery products........... .................................... 4. Agricultural, forestry and fishery services---------------------Mining............................................................................ ................. 5. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining.............. ............................... 6. Nonferrous metal ores mining................................................ 7. Coal mining................................................ - ........................... 8. Crude petroleum and natural gas........................ ................. 9. Stone and clay mining and quarrying................................... | 10. Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining............................... Construction........ ............... ........... ................................................ 11. New construction................................................................. 12. Maintenance and repair construction.............. .............. — } Manufacturing-------------- ------- ----------------------------- - .................. 13. Ordnance and accessories.................. .......... ..................... 14. Food and kindred products......................... ........................... 15. Tobacco manufactures........................................................... 16. Broad and narrow fabrics, yarn and thread mills......... — 17. Miscellaneous textile goods and floor coverings.................. . 18. Apparel................................................................................. 19. Miscellaneous fabricated textile products-----------------------20. Lumber and wood products, except containers.................... 21. Wooden containers.................................................................22. Household furniture.............. ......... ........................................ 23. Other furniture and fixtures____________ _____________ 24. Paper and allied products, except containers........................ 25. Paperboard containers and boxes.......... ............................... 26. Printing and publishing.................. ...................................... 27. Chemicals and selected chemical products............................ 28. Plastics and synthetic materials------------------------------------29. Drugs, cleaning and toilet preparation................................... 30. Paints and allied products......... ........... .................................. 31. Petroleum refining and related industries................. ........... 32. Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products........... ............ 33. Leather tanning and industrial leather products.................. 34. Footwear and other leather products...................................... 35. Glass and glass products.......... .............................................. 36. Stone and clay products.......................................................... 37. Primary iron and steel manufacturing.................................... 38. Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing............................. 39. Metal containers....................................................................... 40. Heating, plumbing and structural metal products................. 41. Stampings, screw machine products and bolts..................... 42. Other fabricated metal products_____ ____________ ____ 43. Engines and turbines...... ........... ............ ...................... ......... 44. Farm machinery and equipment..................................... . 45. Construction, mining and oil field machinery........................ 46. Materials handling machinery and equipment............... ....... 47. Metalworking machinery and equipment_______________ 48. Special industry machinery and equipment........................... 49. General industrial machinery and equipment........................ 50. Machine shop products____ ____ _____ _______________ 51. Office, computing and accounting machines_____________ 52. Service industry machines.................................................... 53. Electric industrial equipment and apparatus____________ 54. Household appliances............................................................... 55. Electric lighting and wiring equipment.................................. 56. Radio, television and communication equipment_________ 57. Electronic components and accessories_____ ____ ______ 58. Miscellaneous electrical machinery, equipment and supplies 59. Motor vehicles and equipment............ ......... ......................... 60. Aircraft and parts.................. ............................................... 61. Other transportation equipment__________ _____ ______ 62. Scientific and controlling instruments__________________ 63. Optical, ophthalmic and photographic equipment................. 64. Miscellaneous manufacturing..__________ _____ ______ Services except households.......................................... ....................... 65. Transportation and warehousing.......................................... 66. Communications; exc. radio and TV broadcasting................ 67. Radio and TV broadcasting_______ ..................................... 68. Electric, gas, water and sanitary services.____ _________ 69. Wholesale and retail trade.......................... ......... ................... 70. Finance and insurance..................... ....................................... 71. Real estate and rental.............. ............................................. 72. Hotels: personal and repair services, exc. auto.................... 73. Business services................ ................................................... 74. Research and development................ ................................... 75. Automobile repair and service................................................ 76. Amusements............................... .............................. ............... 50 1965 I960 1968 Services economy Durables economy 3 percent 4 percent 3 percent 4 percent unemployment unemployment unemployment unemployment 99,600 98,600 99,400 98,400 68,868 74,568 80,788 5,699 5, 389 4,671 4, 338 4,154 3,811 3,188 2,800 3,156 2,772 3,192 2,800 3,160 2,772 310 750 38 58 195 331 128 333 667 30 56 149 308 124 343 646 29 57 141 298 121 388 590 26 61 99 269 135 384 584 26 60 98 266 134 392 588 28 62 98 263 137 388 582 28 61 97 260 136 3,641 17,190 220 1,835 94 604 109 1,338 141 674 46 285 119 425 177 984 400 155 209 63 212 382 37 328 159 462 911 327 71 426 287 370 86 115 157 64 275 171 233 179 146 100 344 155 141 489 234 107 725 629 220 246 110 414 30, 681 2,743 750 94 628 14,222 2,284 697 2,466 1,761 426 635 3,994 18, 454 226 1,798 87 584 115 1,450 162 660 38 325 129 440 200 1,057 411 194 234 66 183 474 35 320 172 474 941 367 71 466 323 428 91 139 177 79 318 196 266 212 191 114 362 165 177 550 307 101 844 625 276 262 130 442 34, 087 2,727 776 110 637 15,352 2,598 769 2,752 2, 303 501 708 4, 050 20,125 342 1,811 84 614 132 1,502 178 634 42 351 145 471 222 1,128 473 216 265 70 187 560 33 325 188 463 931 391 78 507 363 469 110 145 192 89 358 201 285 249 245 135 417 178 206 676 388 121 871 852 311 304 159 458 37, 532 2,868 865 126 665 16, 604 2,916 810 2,880 2,777 536 768 5,482 22, 358 250 1,799 65 551 121 1,780 203 663 22 432 208 556 245 1,322 501 275 336 75 155 763 25 312 218 591 851 492 80 618 405 535 120 173 220 125 395 248 326 308 400 180 480 210 249 760 505 130 901 761 352 373 180 513 48, 382 3,117 972 163 724 20, 487 3,690 949 3,621 4,539 664 998 5,427 22,133 247 1,781 64 545 120 1,762 201 656 22 428 206 550 243 1,309 496 272 333 74 153 755 25 309 216 585 842 487 79 612 401 530 119 171 218 124 391 246 323 305 396 178 475 208 247 752 500 129 892 753 348 369 178 508 47, 898 3,086 962 161 717 20, 282 3,653 940 3, 584 4, 495 657 988 5,595 23, 240 351 1,735 63 541 124 1,727 198 680 22 448 208 551 244 1,307 498 277 321 76 152 777 25 302 221 609 891 522 78 641 425 553 128 180 230 132 429 262 353 333 433 190 523 219 260 855 563 134 933 1,017 393 411 183 512 47, 785 3,126 959 164 712 20, 501 3,607 931 3,509 4,579 652 956 5,539 23 005 347 1,718 62 536 123 1 710 196 673 22 444 206 545 242 1,294 493 274 318 75 150 769 25 299 219 603 882 517 77 634 421 547 127 178 228 131 425 259 349 330 428 188 518 217 257 846 557 133 923 1,006 389 407 181 507 47,306 3, 095 949 162 705 20, 296 3,571 922 3,473 4,534 645 946 Table A - 18. Total civilian em p lo ym e n t1 by detailed industries, 1960, 1965, 1968, and projected 1980—Continued [I n thousands] Projected 1980 1965 1960 Industry name and number 1968 Services economy Durables economy 3 percent 4 percent 3 percent 4 percent unemployment unemployment unemployment unemployment 77. Medical, educational svcs. and nonprofit org__........ .......... Government___ ____ ___________________________ _______ Federal government________ _____ ______ ____ ______ State and local government------------------------------------------86. Households........... ................................. ........... .......................... 3,975 8,353 2,270 6,083 2,554 4,854 10, 091 2,377 7,714 2,604 5,717 11,846 2,737 9,109 2,435 8,458 16,800 3,000 13,800 2,800 8,373 16,632 2,970 13,662 2,770 8,089 16,200 3,000 13,200 2,800 8,008 16,038 2,970 13,068 2,770 i Includes wage and salary employees, self employed, and unpaid family workers. Table A - 19. Total civilian employment by detailed industries, average annual rates of change 1965-80 1968-80 Average annual rates of change 1965-80 Service economy Average annual rates of change 1968-80 Durables economy Service economy Durables economy Industry name and number 3-percent unemploy ment Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries _______________ ___ } 3. Forestry and fishery products_____________ _ _ ............ 4 Agricultural, forestry and fishery services____ } Mining__________ ' ............... _ ______________________ 7. Coal mining..... ... ................ - - - - - _____ __ 9. Stone and clay mining and quirrying. _ ________ ___ } 10. Chemical and fertilize? mineral mining __ . . . _____ 12. Maintenance and repair construction_____________ _____ Manufacturing____________ _________________________ 16. Broad and narrow fabrics, yarn and thread mills................. 17. Miscellaneous textile goods and floor coverings.. _______ 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. Miscellaneous fabricated textile products.. ____________ Lumber and wood products, except containers___ ______ Wooden containers ........ ......... ................ ....................... Household furniture _______________________________ Other furniture and fixtures _________________________ 25. Paperboard containers and boxes... __________________ 26. Printing and publishing.............. ................................. .. 28. Plastics and synthetic materials.._______________ ____ 30. Paints and allied products.!__ ’ ___________ ______ _____ 35. Glass and glass products.. _________ . _____________ 40. 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. 46. 47. 48. 49. Heating, plumbing and structural metal products________ Stampings, screw machine products and bolts. . . ____ Other fabricated metal products_______________________ ___ _____ . Engines and turbines Farm machinery and equipment___________ _______ Construction, mining arid oil field machinery_______ ____ Materials handling machinery and equipment............ . . . . Metalworking machinery and equipment_______________ Special industry machinery and equipment_____________ General industrial machinery and equipment____________ 4-percent unemploy ment 3-percent unemploy ment 4-percent unemploy ment 3-percent unemploy ment 4-percent unemploy ment 3-percent unemploy ment 4-percent unemploy ment 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 -2 .5 - 2 .9 - 2 .5 -2 .9 -2 .5 -2 .9 - 2 .5 - 2 .9 - 2 .2 - 2 .5 -2 .2 - 2 .6 - 2 .2 -2 .5 - 2 .2 - 2 .6 L0 - 0 .8 -1 .0 0.6 - 2 .7 - 0 .9 0.6 1.0 - 0 .9 -1 .0 0.5 - 2 .7 -1 .0 0.5 1.1 -0 .8 - 0 .5 0.7 -2 .7 -1 .1 0.7 1.0 - 0 .9 - 0 .5 0.6 -2 .8 -1 .1 0.6 1.0 -0 .8 - 0 .9 0.6 -2 .9 -0 .9 0.9 0.9 -0 .8 - 0 .9 0.4 -3 .0 -0 .9 0.9 1.1 -0 .8 - 0 .3 0.7 -3 .0 -1 .0 1.0 1.0 -0 .9 -0 .3 0.6 -3 .1 -1 .1 1.0 2.1 1.2 0.6 -1 .0 - 2 .0 -0 .5 0.3 1.3 1.4 (0 - 3 .6 1.9 3.2 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.3 2.3 2.4 0.8 -1 .2 3.2 - 2 .2 - 0 .2 1.5 1.4 - 0 .7 1.9 0.7 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.8 1.4 1.4 3.1 1.4 1.5 1.3 2.3 1.5 3.0 - 0 .2 - 2 .2 - 0 .5 0.5 1.2 1.3 0.2 -3 .6 2.2 3.2 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.3 2.4 2.1 0.9 -1 .2 3.3 - 2 .2 - 0 .4 1.7 1.7 - 0 .4 2.4 0.6 2.1 1.8 1.7 2.3 1.7 1.8 3.5 1.8 2.0 1.9 2.2 1.5 2.9 - 0 .3 -2 .2 - 0 .6 0.4 1.1 1.3 0.1 - 3 .6 2.1 3.2 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.2 2.3 2.1 0.9 - 1 .3 3.3 -2 .2 - 0 .5 1.6 1.6 - 0 .4 2.3 0.5 2.1 1.8 1.6 2.2 1.7 1.7 3.4 1.9 1.9 1.8 2.6 0.9 - 2 .5 -0 .1 -2 .2 - 0 .9 - 0 .7 1.4 1.1 0.4 - 5 .2 1.7 3.1 1.4 0.8 1.3 0.5 2.0 2.0 0.6 -1 .6 2.6 - 2 .2 - 0 .3 1.2 2.1 - 0 .8 1.9 0.2 1.7 0.9 1.1 0.7 1.5 1.1 2.9 0.8 1.8 1.1 2.5 0.8 - 2 .6 -0 .1 - 2 .2 -1 .0 -0 .8 1.3 1.0 0.3 - 5 .2 1.7 3.0 1.3 0.8 1.2 0.4 1.9 1.9 0.5 -1 .7 2.5 - 2 .2 - 0 .4 1.2 2.0 - 0 .8 1.9 0) 1.6 0.8 1.0 0.7 1.4 1.1 2.8 0.7 1.7 1.0 2.7 1.2 0.2 - 0 .4 - 2 .3 -1 .1 - 0 .5 1.2 0.9 0.6 - 5 .2 2.1 3.1 1.3 0.8 1.2 0.4 2.1 1.6 0.7 - 1 .7 2.8 -2 .2 - 0 .6 1.4 2.3 - 0 .4 2.4 0.2 2.0 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.8 1.5 3.3 1.5 2.2 1.8 2.6 1.} 0.} - 0 .4 -2 .5 -1 .1 -0 .6 1.1 0.§ 0.5 - 5 .2 2.0 3.0 1.2 0.7 1.1 0.3 2.0 1.5 0.6 -1 .9 2.7 -2 .2 -0 .7 1.3 2.2 - 0 .5 2.4 0.1 1.9 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.7 1.4 3.3 1.4 2.1 1.7 1.3 0.7 (>) -2 .0 - 0 .4 0.3 1.4 1.5 (>) -3 .6 1.9 3.2 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.3 2.4 2.4 0.9 -1 .1 3.2 - 2 .2 -0 .2 1.6 1. 5 -0 .7 2.0 0.8 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.9 1.5 1.5 3.1 1.5 1.6 1.4 51 Table A - 19. Total civilian employment by detailed industries, average annual rates of change 1965-80 1968-80— Con, Average annual rates of change 1965-80 Service economy Average annual rates of change 1968-80 Durables economy Service economy Industry name and number ). . ?. . . ). >. . '. L . ?. . . . . . . . . . . 3-percent unemploy ment 4-percent unemploy ment 3-percent unemploy ment 4-percent unemploy ment 3-percent unemploy ment 4-percent unemploy ment 3-percent unemploy ment 2.5 5.1 3.1 1.9 1.6 2.3 2.2 3.4 1.7 0.4 1.3 1.6 2.4 2.2 1.0 2.5 5. 0 3.0 1.8 1.6 2.2 2.1 3.3 1.6 0.4 1.3 1.6 2.3 2.1 0.9 3.1 5.6 3. 5 1.9 1.9 2.6 3.0 4.1 1.9 0.7 3.3 2.4 3.1 2.3 1. 0 3.0 5.5 3.4 2.4 1.8 2.5 2.9 4.1 1.9 0.6 3.2 2.3 3.0 2.2 0.9 1.8 4.2 2.4 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.0 2.2 0.6 0.3 - 0 .9 1.0 1.7 1.0 1.0 1.7 4.1 2.3 1.1 1.3 1.5 0.9 2.1 0.5 0.2 -1 .0 0.9 1.6 0.9 0.9 2.5 4.9 2.9 1.9 1.7 2.0 2.0 3.2 0.9 0.6 1.5 2.0 2.5 1.2 0.9 2.4 4. 8 2.8 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.9 3.1 0.8 0.5 1.4 1.9 2.5 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.5 2.7 0.9 1.9 2.4 1.4 2.0 4.5 1.9 2.3 3.8 3.5 1.6 4.0 0.5 0.8 1.4 2.6 0.8 1.9 2.3 1.3 2.0 4.4 1.8 2.2 3.7 3.4 1.5 3.9 0.4 0.9 1.4 2.7 0.7 1.9 2.2 1.3 1.8 4.5 1.8 2.0 3.5 3.2 1.6 3.6 0.5 0.8 1.4 2.6 0.7 1.9 2.1 1.2 1.8 4.5 1.7 1.9 3.4 3.1 1.5 3.6 0.4 0.7 1.0 2.2 0.7 1.8 2.0 1.3 1.9 4.2 1.8 2.2 3.3 3.0 0.8 3.5 1.2 0.6 0.9 2.1 0.6 1.7 1.9 1.2 1.8 4.1 1.7 2.1 3.2 2.9 0.7 3.4 1.2 0.7 0.9 2.2 0.6 1.8 1.8 1.2 1.7 4.3 1.6 1.8 2.9 2.6 0.8 3.1 1.2 0.6 0.8 2.1 0.5 1.7 1.7 1.1 1.6 4.2 l.6 1.8 2.9 2.6 0.7 3.1 1.2 Machine shop products______________________________ Office, computing and accounting machines_____________ Service industry machines___________________________ Electric industrial equipment and apparatus--------------------Household appliances______________________ ____ ____ Electric lighting and wiring equipment_________________ Radio, television and communication equipment---------------Electronic components and accessories_________________ Miscellaneous electrical machinery, equipment and supplies. Motor vehicles and equipment________________________ Aircraft and parts__________________________________ Other transportation equipment_______________________ Scientific and controlling instruments _________________ Optical, ophthalmic and photographic equipment_________ Miscellaneous manufacturing_________________________ Services___________________________________________ Transportation and warehousing______________________ Communications; except radio and TV broadcasting---------Radio and TV broadcasting___________________________ Electric, gas, water and sanitary services_______________ Wholesale and retail trade___________________________ Finance and insurance_______________________________ Real estate and rental________ ____ _______ _________ _ Hotels; personal and repair services, except auto________ Business services. __ ______________________________ } Research and development___________________________ Automobile repair and service________________________ Amusements_______________________________________ Medical, educational services, and nonprofit organizations.. Government2________________________________________ Federal Government ______ _____________________ State and local government_______________________ Household industry____________________________________ 1 Includes wage and salary employees, self employed and unpaid family worker. Table A-20. Durables economy 4-percent unemploy ment 2 Includes Government enterprises. Wage and salary employment by major industry group, 1960, 1965, 1968, and projected 1980 1980 Industry Total_________________________________ Agriculture, forestry and fisheries 1______________ Mining___ ______ ___________________________ Construction------------------ ------------ ----------------------Manufacturing_____________ ____ __________ _ Durable___________________ _____________ Nondurable...__________________________ Transportation, communications, and public utilities. Trade_____________________ _____ ____ ______ Finance, insurance and real estate...... ...................... Services, including households_________________ Government....................................................... ........... 1 Agriculture includes self-employed and unpaid family workers. 52 1960 62,175 5,560 712 2,885 16,795 9,461 7,334 4,004 11,391 2, 669 9, 809 8,353 1965 67,775 4, 528 632 3,186 18, 062 10,407 7,655 4,036 12,716 3,023 11,501 10,091 1968 74,108 4,012 610 3, 267 19, 768 11,626 8,142 4,314 14,081 3, 383 12, 827 11,846 Services economy Durables economy 3-percent unemploy ment 4-percent unemploy ment 3-percent unemploy ment 92,200 3, 030 550 4,600 21,935 13, 015 8, 920 4,740 17,625 4, 260 18, 660 16, 800 91,274 3,000 544 4, 553 21,712 12, 883 8, 829 4,692 17,450 4, 217 18,474 16,632 92, 000 3, 034 548 4,713 22, 817 14, 063 8,754 4,725 17,63S 4,159 18,165 16, 200 4-percent unemploy ment 91,074 3,004 542 4,665 22, 584 13,918 8, 666 4,677 17,464 4,117 17,983 16, 038 Table A -2 1. Wage and salary employment by major industry group, average annual rates of change, 1965-80 and 1968-80 Average annual rates of change 1965-80 Industry Services economy unemployment rate Total___________________________________________________________ Agriculture, forestery and fisheries-------- ------------- - ------------- ------- --- ---------Construction_____________________________ _____ _______________________ Manufacturing--------------------------------------------- ---------- ------------ -----------------------Durable_________________________ _____ ________ ____ ______________ Nondurable.-------- ---------------- ------------------------------------------------ -----------Transportation, communications, and public utilities------ ------------------- -----------.................................. Finance, insurance, and real estate............. ... Services including households______________________ _____ ______________ Government............................... ........................................................... ............... - ........... Table A-22. 1968-80 Durables economy unemployment rate Services economy unemployment rate Durables economy unemployment rate 3 percent 4 percent 3 percent 4 percent 3 percent 4 percent 3 percent 2.1 -2 .6 -0 .9 2.5 1.3 1. s 1.0 1.1 2.2 2.3 3.3 3. 5 2.0 - 2 .7 -1 .0 2.4 1.2 1.4 1.0 1.0 2.1 2.2 3.2 3.4 2.1 -2 .6 -1 .0 2.6 1.6 2.0 0.9 1.1 2.2 2.2 3.1 3.2 2.0 -2 .7 -1 .0 2.6 1.5 2.0 0.8 1.0 2.1 2.1 3.0 3.1 1.8 - 2 .2 -0 .8 2.6 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.8 1.8 2.8 3.0 1.7 -2 .2 -0 .8 2.5 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.7 1.7 1.8 2.7 2.9 1.8 - 2 .2 -0 .8 2.7 1.2 1.6 0.6 0.8 1.8 1.7 2.6 2.6 4 percent 1.7 - 2 .2 - 0 .9 2.6 1.1 1.5 0.5 0.7 1.7 1.6 2.5 2.6 Wage and salary employment, by detailed industry, 1965, 1968, and projected 1980 [in thousands] Industry 1965 1968 Projected1 1980 Average an nual rate of cha nge 1965-80 Total nonagricultural employment— .......... ............................................... ......... ......... ......... .............................. Iron ores.......................... ............................................... ................................................................ . Copper ores----------- --------------- -------------------------- ----------------------------------- ------- --------- -----Lead, zinc, and all other metal ores________________________________ ________________ Coal mining.-------- ------------------- --------------- ------- --------------- ------------ ------- ----------------------------Bituminous and lignite mining_____________________________________________________ Crude petroleum and natural gas_______ _______ _____ __________________ _____ _________ Crude petroleum and natural gas fields---------------------------- --------------------- ----------------------Oil and gas field services.................................................................................................................. Quarrying and nonmetallic mining ____________________________________________________ Contract construction......................... .......................... ........................................................................ ......... .. General building contractors....................... ....... ...................................................................................... Heavy construction____________ ______________________________________________________ Durable goods___________ ________________________________________________________________ Ordnance and accessories_____________________________________________________________ Lumber and wood products.. . ____________ _________________________ ____ _____________ Logging camps and logging contractors______________________________________________ Sawmills and planing mills_________________ ____ __________________________________ Millwork, plywood, and related products_____________________________________________ Wooden containers_________ ____________________ ________________________________ Miscellaneous wood products______________________________________________________ Furniture and fixtures _______________________________________________________________ Household furniture______________________________________________________________ All other furniture and fixtures____________________________________________________ Stone, clay, and glass products.................... .................................................................... ......... ............... Glass and glass products...___________________ _________ ____________ ____ _______ ____ Cement, hydraulic___ ______________________ ____ _______ ____________________________ Pottery and related products._________________________________________________________ Concrete, gypsum, and plaster products ________________________________________________ Other stone and mineral products__________________________________________________ Primary metal industries______ _______ ______________________________________________ Blast furnaces and basic steel products______________________________________________ Iron and steel foundaries_________________________________________________________ Nonferrous foundaries____________________________________________________________ All other primary metal industries__________________________________________________ Fabricated metal products____________________________________________________________ Metal cans_____________________________________________________________________ Cutlery, hand tools and general hardware..______________________________ ___________ Fabricated structural metal products______ ________ ____ __________ ___________ ______ All other fabricated metal products_________________________________________________ Machinery, except electrical___________________________________________________________ Farm machinery and equipment___________________________________________________ Metal working machinery and equipment____ _______________________________________ Special industry equipment___________________________ __________________________ Office, computing, and accounting machines__________________________________________ All other machinery, except electrical_______ ____________________ __________________ 60,832. 0 632.0 83.8 25.9 30.0 2 27.9 141.4 131.8 287.1 156.6 130.5 119.6 3,186. 0 994.0 648.5 1, 543. 4 18, 062. 0 67,860. 0 610.0 83.9 25.3 29.9 2 28.7 132.8 126.6 276.3 147.8 128.5 117.1 3,267. 0 986.4 680.2 1,600.6 19, 768. 0 86,600 550 85 25 40 20 90 85 245 130 115 130 4,600 1,200 950 2,400 21,935 10, 406. 0 ' 225. 8 606.9 87.7 249.4 164.7 34.4 74.2 430.7 309.2 121.5 628.3 2 147. 7 38.0 69.7 43.4 177.8 130.0 1, 301. 0 657.3 227.0 81.5 335.2 1, 269. 0 61.0 155.1 375.1 677.7 1,735.3 135.7 304.2 193.3 190.5 911.7 11,624.0 341.5 597.8 78.7 232.4 165.6 37.5 83.6 474.2 334.8 139. 5 637.0 2175. 8 34.8 64.3 43.5 181.9 136.7 1,314.3 635.3 225.4 90.0 363.6 1,393.7 66.6 165. 1 411.8 750.3 1,960.5 141.4 342.6 198.2 245.4 1, 033.1 13,015 250 585 70 180 205 25 105 615 415 200 790 215 30 70 35 285 155 1,340 600 250 120 370 1,615 65 175 500 875 2,445 170 380 245 400 1,250 2.4 -0 .9 -0 .2 1.9 - 2 .2 - 3 .1 -3 .0 -1 .1 -1 .2 - 0 .8 0.6 2.5 1.3 2.6 3.1 1.3 1.5 0.7 - 0 .2 -1 .5 -2 .2 1.5 -2 .1 2.3 2.4 2.8 3.4 1.5 2.5 - 1 .5 -1 .4 3.2 1.2 0.2 - 0 .6 0.6 2.6 0.7 1.6 0.4 0.9 1.9 1.7 2.3 1.5 1.5 1.6 0.7 2.1 1968-80 2.1 -0 .9 0.1 -0 .1 2.5 -3 .0 -3 .3 -3 .4 -1 .0 -1 .1 - 0 .9 0.9 2.9 1.7 2.8 3.6 0.9 0.9 - 2 .6 -0 .2 -1 .0 -2 .1 1.8 - 3 .4 1.9 2.2 1.9 3.0 1.9 1.7 -1 .2 0.7 -1 .8 3.8 1.1 0.2 -0 .5 0.9 2.4 0.1 1.2 - 0 .2 0.5 1.6 1.3 1.9 1. 5 0.9 1.8 4.2 1.6 53 Table A-22. Wage and salary employment, by detailed industry, 1965, 1968, and projected 1980—Continued [I n thousands] Industry 1965 1968 Projected 1 1980 Average annual rate of change 1965-80 1968-80 Electrical machinery, equipment, and supplies.................. .......................................................... . Electrical transmission and distribution equipment........... ..................................................... Electrical measuring instruments and test equipment................................................... .............. Power, distribution, and specialty transformers................................... ........... .............................. Switchgear and switchboard apparatus.............................- ......... ............................................. — Electrical industrial apparatus.............................................................—.......................... ...................... Motor and generators................................. ........... ................................ ................................................. Industrial controls............................................................................ .......................................................... Household appliances...................... ....................................................... - ............................................... Household refrigerator and home and farm freezers......... ...................................................... Household laundry equipment......................................................................................................... . Electric housewares and fan------------------- --------------------- ----------------------- ------------------------Electric lighting and wiring equipment............................................. ................................................... . Electric lamps...............................................................- - - ........... - ------------------------------------------Lighting fixtures current-carrying wiring devices........ .................................... .............................. Noncurrent-carrying wiring devices........................................... ................................................. . Radio and television receiving sets, except communication types------------------------------ ---------------- 1,659.2 170. 0 56.6 46.0 67.5 192. 3 104.8 51.8 165.3 52.8 24.7 40.1 173. 0 31.4 58.4 83.3 133. 4 1,981.9 205.5 66.8 57.5 81.3 211.0 115.3 57.6 178.4 58.4 25.0 43.1 201.9 38.6 64.8 98.5 153.4 2,330 235 90 60 85 245 130 70 210 75 30 55 245 45 75 125 180 2.3 2.2 3.1 1.8 1.5 1.6 1.4 2.0 1.6 2.4 1.3 2.1 2.3 2.4 1.7 2.7 2.0 1.4 1.1 2.5 0.4 0.4 1.3 1.0 1.6 1.4 2.1 1.5 2.1 1.6 1.3 1.2 2.0 1.3 Communication equipment................................................................- .......................- ............................ Telephone and telegraph apparatus--------------------------- -------------------- --------------------------- Radio and television transmitting, signaling, and detection equipment and apparatus........... . Electronic components and accessories.................................................- .......................... ...................... Radio and television receiving type electronic tubes, except cathoderay transmitting, indus trial, and special purpose electronic tubes...................................................... ......................... Semiconductors and related devices electonics and accessories, not elsewhere classified.......... Miscellaneous electrical machinery, equipment and supplies............................................................... Electrical equipment for internal combustion engines---------------------------------------------------- - 416.8 115.6 301.1 307.1 522.9 130.6 392.3 388.0 580 130 450 505 2.2 0.8 2.7 3.4 0.9 61.5 245.5 101.4 55.4 74.7 313.2 120.8 66.5 60 445 130 65 - 0 .1 4.0 1.7 1.1 -1 .8 3.0 0.6 - 0 .2 Transportation equipment.......................... ..................- ............... - ................................ ....................... Motor vehicles and equipment......... .............................................................................................. Aircraft and parts..................................................................................... ............... ....................... Aircraft.......................................................................... .............................................................. Aircraft engines and engine parts............................................... ......... ................................. . Other aircraft parts and equipment................................................ ....................................... Ship and boat building and repairing........................................................................................ . Shipbuilding and repairing..----------------------------- ----------------------- --------- ------------------Boat building and repairing................................................. ..............................................— Railroad equipment...................................................... ...................................................................... All other transportation equipment............................................................................................. Instruments and related products.......... ...................................................... ........................................ Photographic equipment and supplies......................... ....... ........... ............ .................................... Watches and clocks----------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------------------------All other instruments and related products................................... ................ ................................. Miscellaneous manufacturing industries------------------------------------------------ ---------- ------------ --------Jewelry, silverware, and plated ware_________________ _________ ____________________ Toys, amusement, and sporting goods______________ ____ ______ ____________________ Costume jewelry, buttons, manufacturing----------------------------------- ------- ------------------ ---------All other miscellaneous manufacturing___ ____ _______ ______________________________ Nondurable goods manufacturing--------------------------------------------- --------- ---------- ------------ --------------- ------- Food and kindred products--------- --------- ------------ ------------ -----------------------------------------------------Meat products___________________________________________________ ______ ________ Dairy products_______ ____________________ _________ ____ _______ ________ _______ Canned and preserved food, except meats..................................................................................... Grain mill products......................... ...................... ..................... ............................................. . Bakery products---------------------- ------- ---------------------------------- -----------------------------------------Sugar_____ _____ _______ ___ _____ _____ _______ ____________________ ____ ______ Confectionery and related products..__________ ________ _________ _____________ ____ _ Beverages_______________________ ____ _____________ ___________ ___________ _____ Miscellaneous food and kindred products______ _____ _____ __________________________ 1,740.6 842.7 624.2 333.3 187.9 103.1 160.2 128.9 31.2 56.2 57.3 389.0 84.1 31.9 273.0 419.5 45.7 116.7 56.4 200.7 7,656.0 1,756.7 318.4 285.8 260.2 126.9 287.4 36.2 77.2 221.5 143.2 2, 028. 4 869.6 849.5 492.9 213.5 143.1 181.2 141.1 40.0 47.1 81.1 459.9 107.7 34.8 317.3 434.6 51.7 120.2 60.7 202.0 8,144.0 1,780.8 332.9 259.9 277.9 133.5 278.7 37.5 83.4 233.3 143.6 2,010 900 760 410 220 130 205 165 40 50 95 550 150 40 360 485 50 165 55 215 8,920 1,755 330 220 300 125 255 45 70 265 145 Tobacco manufacturers___ ____________ _______ ____ ____ ______________________________ Cigarettes______________________________________ _____________ ________ ____ _____ Cigars______________________________________ ____________ ______________________ All other tobacco manufacturers_________________ ______________________________ : . . . Textile mill products...____ ____________________________________________ _____________ Knitting______ _____________________ _____ _____________ _____ __________________ Finishing textiles, except knitting_________________________________ _______ _________ Yarn and thread____________________ ______________________ _____________________ All other textile mill products___________________ _______ ________ __________________ Apparel and related products___ __________________________________ ___________________ Men’s and boys’ suits and coats___________________ _____ _____ ____________________ Men’s and boys’ furnishings________________________ _________________________ ____ Women's, misses' and juniors’ outerwear___________ ____ ______ ______ ______ _______ Women's and children's undergarments_________ _______ _______ _____ _______________ Girls’ and children’s outerwear.___________________ ____ ___________________________ All other apparel and related products............................. ................................................... ............. 86.8 38.6 24.2 2 24. 0 925.6 229.1 76.9 109.2 510.5 1,354.2 119.3 351.9 417.1 120.8 78.4 266.8 83.8 40.9 20.4 2 22.5 990.6 246.4 82.0 120.7 541.6 1,407.9 131.4 365.5 424.5 125.7 79.8 280.9 65 35 15 15 925 255 80 108 482 1,700 155 475 525 135 85 325 - 0 .4 1.5 1.8 2.0 1.5 0.7 0.5 1.3 -2 .1 - 1 .3 - 2 .6 - 3 .4 -0 .6 0.3 - 0 .2 - 0 .9 - 1 .0 1.6 1.4 2.2 1.8 0.6 0.5 1.2 Paper and allied products________________ ____ _______ ____________________ ____ ______ Converted paper and paper board products_______________________ ______ ____________ Paperboard containers and boxes_____ _______________________________________ _____ All other paper and allied products____________ _____ ____ ___________ _______________ Printing, publishing, and allied industries............................... ......... ................................. .................... Newspaper publishing and printing................................................................................................. Periodical publishing and printing__________ _______ ________ ____ __________________ Books._____________ ___________ _________ _____________ _______ _________ _______ Commercial printing......... ......................................................... ......... ............................................ All other printing and publishing..................................................................................................... 639.1 159.6 199.6 280.0 979.4 345.4 69.7 81.3 309.3 173.7 692.5 179.6 222.3 290.5 1, 063.1 357.5 77.0 95.0 338.6 195.1 800 245 245 310 1,240 365 75 150 390 260 1.5 2.9 1.4 0.7 1.6 0.4 0.5 4.2 1.6 2.7 1.2 2.6 0.8 0.5 1.3 0.2 - 0 .2 3.9 1.2 2.4 54 1.0 0.4 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 - 0 .8 3.4 2.3 3.9 1.5 1.9 1.0 0.6 2.3 -0 .2 0.5 1.0 0.2 -1 .7 1.0 - 0 .1 - 0 .8 1.5 - 0 .7 1.3 - 1 .9 -0 .7 - 3 .2 - 3 .2 0.7 0.3 1.1 2.2 0.3 - 0 .9 - 1 .6 0.2 - 0 .9 1.0 1.3 0.5 1.4 1.5 2.8 1.2 1.1 0.9 - 0 .3 2.7 - 0 .8 0.5 0.8 -0 .1 - 1 .4 0.6 - 0 .6 -0 .7 1.5 - 1 .5 1.1 Table A-22. Wage and salary employment, by detailed industry, 1965, 1968, and projected 1980—Continued [In thousands! Industry 1965 1968 Projected 1 1980 Average an nual rate of cha nge 1965-80 1968-80 907.8 290.1 24. 0 2 60.6 112.7 92.8 1, 026.1 314.2 25.8 66.0 126.6 95.8 1,185 345 25 80 135 105 1.8 1.0 0.3 1.9 1.2 0.8 1.2 -0 .8 - 0 .3 1.6 0.5 0 8 215.6 92.4 109.3 136.5 105.6 116.8 39.8 47.5 69.7 56.3 39.4 116.9 187.0 150.5 36.4 557.1 113.5 182.8 260.8 355.5 30.7 233.4 91.4 275 115 140 185 145 150 50 60 75 70 50 85 155 115 40 760 105 215 440 335 25 225 85 2.4 2.1 2.5 3 0 3.4 2.4 1.8 3.1 0.8 1.8 1.5 0.3 -1 .1 -1 .7 0.9 3.2 0.2 1.5 5.4 - 0 .3 -1 .6 - 0 .3 - 0 .1 2 1 1.8 2.1 Pharmaceutical preparations----------------------------------------------- ; - - 7-------: ...........- ------------Soap detergents, and cleaning preparations, perfumes, cosmetics and other toilet preparations----Soap, and other detergents, except specialty cleaners................ ................................................. Perfumes, cosmetics, and the other toilet products------------------------------------------------- ----------Paints, varnishes, laquers, enamels, and allied products------------------------------------------------- --------Agricultural chemicals________________________________________________________________ Fertilizers, complete and mixing only------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------Gum and wood and other chemicals---------------------------------------------- --------- --------------- --------Petroleum refining and related industries------------------------------------------------------------------------------Petroleum refining____________________ ___________ ________ _____ ______ ___ _____ All other petroleum and coal products-----------------------------------------------------------------------------Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products..................... ................................... ......... .................... . Tires and innertubes__________________________ ______ ____ ____________ _____ _____ Other rubber products___________________________________ _____ ___________________ Miscellaneous plastic products------------- --------- -------------------------------- ------------------------------Leather and leather products--------------------------------- ------- - ----------------- --------------------- ------- -----Leather tanning and finishing------------------ --------------- --------- ----------------------------- --------------Footwear, except rubber---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------ All other leather products-------------- ---------- ----------------------- ---------------------------- ----------------- 193.7 84.0 96.6 118.1 87.4 105.6 38.4 38.2 66.3 53.2 39.7 80.8 182.9 148.1 34.8 470.8 101.8 171.6 197. 5 352.9 31.6 234. 5 86.8 2.7 2.1 1.9 2.0 0.6 1.8 2.0 -2 .7 -1 .6 - 2 .3 0.8 2.6 -0 .7 1.4 4.5 - 0 .5 - 1 .7 - 0 .3 - 0 .6 Transportation, communication and public utilities------------------- ------------ ----------------------------------------Transportation----------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Railroad transportation------------------ ------------------------------------------------ ------------ ------------------Local and interurban passenger transportation-----------------------------------------------------------------Local and suburban passenger transportation------------------------------------------------------------Taxicabs__________________________________________________________ _____ ___ Intercity and rural highway passenger transportation--------------------------------------------------Motor freight transportation and warehousing--------------------------------Trucking_____________________________ _____ ____________ __________ _________ Warehousing____________________________________ ____ ______ - .............................. Transportation by air--------- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- - - ............. Air transportation, common carrier------------- -------------------------------------------------------------Pipeline transportation--------------------------- ------- ------- - ..................... ; ---------------------------------Water transportation and transportation services, not elsewhere classified----------------------------- 4, 036. 0 2, 531. 5 735.3 268.8 82.5 109.5 41.8 963.5 881.5 82.0 229.0 205.9 19. 5 315.4 4,313.0 2,674. 5 661.9 281.5 82.0 110.7 43.1 1, 046.1 961.2 84.8 328.8 297.3 18.8 337.4 4,740 2, 900 500 295 85 105 60 1,235 1,145 90 480 440 15 375 1.1 0.9 - 2 .6 0.6 0.2 -0 .3 2.4 1.7 1.8 0.6 5.1 5.2 -1 .7 1.2 0.8 0.7 - 2 .4 0.4 0.3 -0 .4 2.8 1.4 1.5 0.5 3.2 3.3 - 1 .9 0.8 Communication..---------------------------------------- --------------------------- ------- ---------------------------------Telephone communication--------------------- ---------- ------------ ------- ---------------------------------- -----Telegraph communication----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Radio and television broadcasting. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------Electric, gas, and sanitary services------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------Electric companies and systems-------------- ------- --------------------------------------------------------Gas companies and systems------------------ ---------- ----------------------------------------------------------Combined utility systems----------------------------------------------------------------- ------- ---------------------Water, steam, and sanitary systems----- ------- --------------------------------- -------------------------------- 880.8 735.2 31.8 106.9 623.4 253.0 153.6 176.5 40.4 985.6 816.5 32.8 123.0 652.9 268.1 158.3 180.2 46.2 1,130 935 25 160 710 290 165 185 70 1.7 1.7 -1 .6 2.7 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.3 3.7 1.1 1.1 -2 .3 2.2 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.2 3.5 Wholesale and retail trade________________________________________________________________ Wholesale trade. ___________________________________________________________________ Motor vehicles and automotive equipment___________________________________________ Drugs, chemicals, and allied products . . ___________________________________________ Dry goods and apparel___________________________________________________________ Apparel and accessories stores_______________________ — ----------------------------------------Furniture and appliance stores.____ _______________________________________________ Eating and drinking places________________________________________________________ Miscellaneous retail stores____________________________________________________________ Drug stores_________________________________________________________________ Farm and general supply stores and fuel and ice dealers and other miscellaneous retail stores Groceries and related products_____________________________________________________ Electrical goods, hardware and plumbing and heating equipment________________________ Machinery, equipment and supplies__________________________________ ______________ Farm products, raw materials and miscellaneous______________________________________ Retail trade___________________________________________ ______________________ 12,716.0 3,312.0 255.3 198.0 139.4 640.2 409.6 1,987.9 1,060.3 401.0 2 659. 3 510.7 406. 1 579.4 2 1,223.1 9, 404. 0 539. 3 1,873.4 312.7 14, 081.0 3,618.0 288.9 221.1 146.4 695.6 434. 1 2,296. 4 1,165.1 432.2 2 732. 9 534.4 453.7 698.2 2 1, 275.3 10,464.0 535.6 2,168. 6 314. 1 17,625 4,600 400 275 185 730 500 2,900 1,400 550 850 555 625 1,010 1,550 13, 025 535 2,895 335 2.2 2.3 3.0 2.2 1.9 0.9 1.3 2.6 1.9 2.1 1.7 0.6 2.9 3.8 1.6 2.3 1.9 2.0 2.8 1.8 2.0 0.4 1.2 2.0 1.5 2.0 1.2 0.3 2.7 3.1 1.6 1.8 2.9 0.5 2.4 0.5 2 1, 560. 7 1,468.6 1,424.2 902.3 521.9 2 1,854.5 1,622.5 1,545.4 959.8 585.6 2, 560 2, 035 2, 030 1,300 730 3.4 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.7 1.9 2.3 2.6 - 1 .9 3, 023. 0 1,250.7 ' 792. 0 326.9 131.8 3,383. 0 1,456.4 '915.4 350.6 190.4 4,260 1,920 1,220 500 200 2.3 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 1.9 2.3 2.4 3.0 0.4 Chemicals and allied products------------------- ------- -------------------- ---------- -----------------------------------Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals.................... ...................................................- ............. Alkalies and chlorine___________________________ ____ __________________ - .............. Industrial gases, cyclic crudes, and pigments-------- ------------ -------------------------------- ------------Industrial organic chemicals, not elsewhere classified-----------------------------------------------------Industrial inorganic chemicals, not elsewhere classified — -------------------- ---------------------Plastic materials and synthetic resins, synthetic rubber, synthetic and other man-made fibers except glass__________________________________ - - - - - - - ............... .......... .................--Plastics materials, synthetic resins, and (non-vulcamzable elastomers)-------------------------Cellulosic man-made fibers, except celiulosic------------------------------------------------- --------- -- General merchandise stores_______________________________________________________ Limited price variety stores__________________________________________ ___ _____ Department stores, mail order houses, merchandise vending machine operators and miscellaneous general merchandise stores_____________________________________ _________ Food stores___________________________________________ ____ ____________________ Auto dealers and service stations___________________________________________________ Motor vehicle and other vehicle and accessory dealers_____________________________ Gasoline service stations______________________________________________________ Finance, insurance and real estate______ ___________________________________________________ Finance___________________________ Banking__________________________________________________________ Credit agencies other than banks. _______________________________________ _ . . . __ Security and commodity brokers, dealers exchange and services_________________________ 55 Table A-22. Wage and salary employment, by detailed industry, 1965, 1968, and projected 1980—Continued [In thousands] Industry 1965 1968 Projected > 1980 Average annual rate of change 1965-80 1,126.2 893.4 232.8 1968-80 1,240.4 985.2 255.2 1,525 1,200 325 2.0 2.0 2.2 648.0 685.7 815 1.5 1.5 Combinations of real estate, insurance, loans, law offices, and holding and other investment companies_________________________ ________ - ------- ---------------------------------- --------Services and miscellaneous---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------- ------- --------Hotels, rooming houses, camps and other lodging places----------------------------------------------------------Hotels, tourist courts, and motels-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Other lodging places---------------------------------------- ------- ------- ------------------ ------- ------------------ 568.9 608.6 730 1.7 1.5 79.1 9, 087.0 659.1 584.2 2 74.9 77.1 10, 592. 0 719.4 645.3 2 74.1 85 16, 090 1,025 940 85 0.5 3.9 3.0 3.2 0.8 0.8 3.5 3.0 3.2 1.1 Personal services ------------------------------------------------------------ --------------- ---------------------------------Laundries, laundry services and cleaning and dyeing plants-----------------------------------------------Miscellaneous business services-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Advertising_______________ ______ ________ ______ ____________________ - ..................... Consumer credit reporting and collection agencies------------------------------------------------------------Motion pictures----------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------- -------------------Motion picture filming and distributing---------------------------------------------------------------------------Motion picture theaters and services-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 985.4 548.4 1,109.1 112.5 65.7 185.1 48.5 136.6 1,031.3 548.0 1,398.0 117.1 72.3 196.8 52.6 144.3 1,370 650 2,910 135 100 225 70 155 2.2 1.1 6.6 1.2 2.8 1.3 2.5 0.8 2.4 1.4 6.3 1.2 2.7 1.1 2.4 0.6 Medical and other health services-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Hospitals_______________________________________________________________________ Legal services________________________ ____ ______________, -------------------------------------------Educational services------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Elementary and secondary schools (private)---------------------------------------------------------------------Higher educational services (private)------------------------------------------------------------------------------Miscellaneous services_______________________________________________________________ Engineering and architectural services.-. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 2,079.5 1, 356. 5 181.5 924.6 315.6 544.3 449.0 242.4 2,637.7 1,653.9 207.7 1,065.9 359.4 618.8 574.1 287.3 4,325 2,525 325 1,515 460 895 900 500 5.0 4.2 4.0 3.3 2.5 3.4 4.7 4.9 4.2 3.6 3.8 3.0 2.1 3.2 3.8 4.9 10, 091.0 2,378.0 2,346.7 938.5 614.2 793.9 25.4 5.9 7,714.0 3,799.0 3,914.5 1,995.9 679.1 1,316.8 5,717.6 3,119.9 2, 597.7 11,846.0 2,737.0 2,701.9 1,107.1 723.5 871.4 28.1 6.6 9,109.0 4,693.6 4,415.5 2,448.8 958.0 1,490.8 6,660.3 3,735.6 2,924.7 16,800 3, 000 2,955 925 935 1,095 35 10 13,800 7,600 6,200 3, 500 1,400 2,100 10, 300 6,200 4,100 3.5 1.6 1.5 3.0 0.8 0.8 - 1 .5 2.2 1.9 1.8 3.5 3.5 4.1 2.9 3.0 3.2 2.9 3.7 4.3 2.9 Insurance carriers and insurance agents brokers and services---------------------------------------------- Insurance carriers---------------------------------------------------------------------- --------- ------- ----------------Insurance agents, brokers, and services-------------------------------------------------------- -----------------Real estate, combinations of real estate, insurance, loans, law offices, and holding and other investment companies--------------------------------------- --------- ----------------- --------- ------------------------- Federal government------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Executive______________________________________________________________________ Post Office Department___________________________ ____________________________ Other agencies______________________________________________________________ Legislative--------------------- ------- -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Judicial ________ _____________________________________________________________ State and local government_______________________________ ____________________________ State and local education_____________________________________________________ Other State and local government_______________________________________________ State government..____ _____________________ ____________________________________ State education______________________________________________________________ Other State government_______________________________________________________ Local government________________________________________________________________ Local education______________________________________________________________ Other local government_______________________________________________________ 2.8 2.2 2.2 3.6 4.0 4.7 3.1 3.8 4.9 3.2 4.0 4.7 3.1 1.7 1.7 2.0 1 Services economy, 3-percent unemployment. 2 Annual average data are not published for ttvs industry classification. The figure was obtained by subtracting the sum of employment in individual industries for which data are published from total published employment in the major industry group. Note: Sum of individual items may not add to totals either because of rounding or because data are not presented for all industries. 56 Table A-23. Comparison of BLS employment data with total labor force 1960, 1968, and projected 1980 [In thousands] Difference”between BLS nonagricultural number of jobs and census nonagricultural wage and salary employment_____________ 1 As reported by the U.S. Bureau of the Census in the Monthly Report on the Labor Force. 2 Includes agricultural services. 3 Data for 1968 and 1980 reflect a change in method of counting self-employed workers. Table A-24. 1960 1968 72,142 2,514 69, 628 3,852 i 65,776 5,458 6, 367 35 758 383 221 2,443 317 2,210 615 2,265 51,071 4 54, 234 8, 353 45, 881 3,163 82,272 3, 535 78,737 2.817 i 75,920 3.817 5,102 18 664 254 192 1,606 261 2,107 484 1,916 64, 601 4 67,860 11,846 56,015 3,259 1980 100,727 2,700 98,027 2,941 95, 086 3, 000 6,000 20 760 310 200 1,785 355 2,570 700 2,150 83, 236 86, 600 16,800 69,800 3i 364 (See Employment and Earnngs and Monthy Report of the Labor Force, Vol. 13, No. 8, February 1967, p. 7.) 4 As reported in the BLS survey of establishments. Note: Sum of individual items may not add to totals due to rounding. Employment by major occupational group, 1968 and projected 1980 requirements [In thousands] 1968 employment Projected 1980 requirements Occupational group Number Percent Number Change 1968-80 Percent Number Percent Total___________________________________________________________ ________ 75,920 100.0 95,100 100.0 19,180 25.0 White-collar workers_______________ __________ . ---------------------- ------------ ------- ---------Professional and technical__________ ____ _______ _____________ . . . . ____ . . . Managers, officials, and proprietors-.. _____________ ____ _______ _____________ Clerical workers______________________ . . . . . . ---------------- . . . ---------- . . .. Sales workers_______ ____ ________________________ ____________ _________ 35, 551 10, 325 7,776 12,803 4,647 46.8 13.6 10.2 16.9 6.1 48, 300 15, 500 9, 500 17,300 6, 000 50.8 16.3 10.0 18.2 6.3 12, 749 5,175 1,724 4,497 1,353 35.9 50.1 22.2 35.1 29.1 Blue-collar workers.. ____________________________________ ______ _ ___________ . . Craftsmen and foremen____________________ ________________________________ Operatives_______________________ _______________________ _______________ Nonfarm laborers_____________ _____________________________ . . . . . ______ 27, 525 10, 015 13,955 3, 555 36.3 13.2 18.4 4.7 31,100 12,200 15,400 3, 500 32.7 12.8 16.2 3.7 3, 575 2,185 1,445 -5 5 13.0 21.8 10.4 - 1 .5 Service workers________ ______. _____ _____________________________________ _____ 9,381 12.4 13,100 13.8 3,719 39.6 Farm workers________________________________________________ __________________ 3, 464 4.6 2,600 2.7 -8 6 4 -3 3 .2 57 Table A-25. Employment and average annual openings in selected occupations, 1968 and projected 1980 requirements Average annual openings 1968-802 Employment 1968 Require ments 1980 Total............................. . 75,920,000 95,100,000 25 3,990,000 PROFESSIONAL, TECHNICAL AND RELATED WORKERS.. 10,325,000 15,500, 000 50 Occupations Percent change 1968-80 777,000 Business administration and related professions Accountant............................... Personnel worker__________ Public relations worker______ Engineering.......... ....................... 500, 000 110, 000 100, 000 720, 000 155, 000 165, 000 43 43 64 33, 000 6,900 8,800 1,100, 000 1, 500, 000 40 53, 000 100, 000 16, 000 100, 000 307. 000 75, 000 660, 000 130, 000 33, 500 190, 000 469, 000 120, 000 1, 000, 000 30 109 90 53 60 52 4,900 2,400 12,800 20, 800 7, 300 65, 000 18, 000 33, 000 83 2, 300 Health service occupations Dentist........ ............................. Dental hygienist____________ Medical laboratory workers *.. Physician (M.D.’s and D.O.’s). Radiologic technologist............ Registered nurse___________ ' ; and ilogist. Natural scientists Chemist__________________ Physicist_________ ____ ___ Life scientist__________ ___ Oceanographer____ ____ ___ 130, 000 45, 000 170, 000 5,200 200, 000 75, 000 245, 000 9,700 56 64 41 85 8,800 3, 200 9,900 500 Teachers Elementary school teachers... Secondary school teachers___ College and university teachers...____ _________ 1,230,000 940, 000 1,270, 000 1, 065, 000 3.3 14 56, 300 40, 000 286, 000 395, 000 38 17, 000 Technician occupations Engineering and science_____ Draftsmen______ ____ _____ 620, 000 295, 000 890, 000 435,000 43 48 31, 000 15,300 Other professional and related workers Lawyer........ ............................ Librarians.................................. Mathmetician______________ Pilot and copilot................ . Programer.._____ _________ Social worker..____________ Systems analyst____ _______ Occupations Employment 1968 Require ments 1980 Percent change 1968-80 Average annual openings 1968-802 SALES WORKERS-Continued Retail trade salesworkers. Security salesmen... Wholesale trade salesworkers. CRAFTSMEN, FOREMEN AND KINDRED WORKERS___ 2,800,000 135 000 530; 000 3,460 000 24 695| 000 30 10, 015, 000 12,200, 000 22 175, 000 869, 000 230, 000 31 25,200 Building trades Bricklayers... Carpenters_____ _____ Electricians (maintenance and construction)___ Excavating, grading and road machinery operators. . Painters and paperhangers___ Plumbers and pipefitters3___ 430, 000 575,000 34 285, 000 430, 000 330, 000 425, 000 560' 000 475, 000 49 30 44 100, 000 135, 000 205, 000 115, 000 140, 000 230, 000 260, 000 200, 000 40 70 27 74 175, 000 825, 000 220, 000 1, 000, 000 26 21 125, 000 145, 000 16 19 500 Mechanics and repairmen Air conditioning, refrigeration and heating mechanics. Airplane mechanics.................. Appliance servicemen_______ Business machine servicemen. Industrial machinery repairmen____________ _ Motor vehicle mechanics____ Television and radio service technicians__________ *>non q’ 700 a7gnn 3,000 Printing Compositors and typesetters <___................ OPERATIVES____ 190, 000 180, 000 5 3 200 13,955, 000 15,400, 000 10 426, 000 1, 200, 000 640, 000 1,450, 000 800, 000 22 25 2\, 600 785, 000 850, 000 8 000 400, 000 585, 000 475, 000 635, 000 16 9 10 900 19’ 200 Driving Occupations Local truckdrivers__________ Over-the-road truckdrivers___ 37 000 Other manual occupations 270, 000 106,000 65, 000 52, 000 175, 000 160, 000 150, 000 335, 000 135, 000 110,000 114, 000 400, 000 270, 000 425, 000 23 29 60 117 129 67 183 14, 500 8, 200 4,600 1,800 23,000 16, 700 27, 000 Assemblers____ Gasoline service station attendants.......... ................... Inspectors (manufacturing)... Welders and oxygen and arc cutters_________________ 480, 000 675, 000 NONFARM LABORERS... 3, 555, 000 3, 500, 000 41 -2 23 OOO 60,000 MANAGERS, OFFICIALS AND PROPRIETORS............. .. 7,776, 000 9,500, 000 22 380, 000 SERVICE WORKERS................. . 9, 381,000 13,100, 000 CLERICAL WORKERS............. .. 12, 803, 000 17, 300, 000 35 911,000 Private household workers______ 1, 700, 000 1,980, 000 400, 000 230, 000 1,200, 000 730, 000 100, 000 175, 000 512, 000 337, 000 1, 500, 000 1,110, 000 150, 000 400, 000 29 46 19 51 50 129 29, 500 20, 000 78, 000 69, 000 9, 000 20,400 Food service workers. .............. 670, 000 960, 000 900, 000 1, 240, 000 33 28 48 000 67’ 666 800, 000 320, 000 1, 500, 000 600, 000 88 88 100 000 48’ 000 210, 000 475, 000 260, 000 685i 000 24 43 12 800 38; 000 180, 000 285, 000 245, 000 360, 000 34 28 7,700 15,000 Bank clerks...____ ________ Bank tellers_______________ Bookkeeping workers_______ Cashiers_______ ____ _____ Dental assistant................ ....... Electronic computer operating personnel.._____________ Office machine operators____ Receptionists______________ Shipping and receiving clerks. Stenographers and secretaries______________ Telephone operators________ Typists...... ................................ 325, 000 240, 000 370, 000 460, 000 400, 000 465, 000 39 66 25 25, 000 30, 000 15, 400 2, 650, 000 400, 000 700, 000 3,650, 000 480, 000 930, 000 37 21 37 237, 000 28, 000 63, 000 SALES WORKERS........................... 4,647, 000 6, 000, 000 29 263,000 Automobile salesmen_______ Insurance agents and brokers. Manufacturers’ salesmen........ Real estate salesmen and brokers.................................. 120, 000 410, 000 500, 000 145, 000 480, 000 735, 000 21 17 47 4,400 16, 200 32, 000 225, 000 270, 000 20 14, 200 Cooks and chefs___________ Waiters and waitresses______ Hospital attendants_________ Licensed practical nurses. . . . 121, 000 Personal service workers Barbers.............................. Cosmetologists.......................... Protective service workers Firefighters________ . Municipal police officers_____ Other service workers Building custodians.................. 58 752,000 Health service workers FARM WORKERS......................... 1 Includes medical technologist, technician, and assistant2 Growth and replacement openings; does not include transfers. 3 Also called—operating engineer (construction machinery operations). 40 1,100, 000 1,460, 000 33 80, 000 3,464, 000 2,600, 000 -3 3 25,000 *Also called—composing room occupations. Note: Percent increase based on unrounded estimates. Table A-26. Occupations that are expected to grow rapidly during the 1970’s Employment Occupation Table A-2 7 . 1968 Projected 1980 150,000 175,000 175, 000 52, 000 16, 000 115,000 100, 000 800, 000 320, 000 5,200 18, 000 425.000 400.000 400.000 114, 000 33, 500 225, 000 190, 000 1,500, 000 600, 000 9,700 33,000 Average annual rate of change, 1968-80 9.1 7.1 7.1 6.7 6.4 5.8 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.2 Occupations that are expected to grow slowly during the 1970’s Employment Occupation Insurance agents and brokers......... ........... .................................. ............................................................. ............. Gasoline service station attendants________________ ____________________ ______ _________________ TV and radio service technicians______________________________________________________________ _ Carpenters................... ........... ......................................... ...................................................................................... 1n s p e c t o r s (manufacturing)________________________ ______ ___________________ _______________ Assemblers.__________ _________________________ ________________________ _____ ________ Elementary school teachers.................................................................................................... .......... ....... .............. Nonfarm laborers..___________________________ _____________________ _______ _________________ Compositors and typesetters______________________________ _____ _____________________________ . Farm workers.._____________________________ ________ ____________ __________ 1968 Projected 1980 410,000 400, 000 125.000 869, 000 585.000 785.000 1,230,000 3,555,000 190, 000 3, 464, 000 480.000 475.000 145.000 1,075,000 635, 000 850.000 1.270.000 3.500.000 180,000 2,600,000 Average annual rate of change, 1968-80 1.3 1.2 1.2 2.2 0.7 -0.7 0 3 - 0 .1 -0 .5 -3.4 59 U. S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING O FFICE : 1970 O - 384-657 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS WASHINGTON, D.C. O FFIC IA L 20212 BU SIN E SS I T H IR D C LA SS M A IL
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