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THE U.S.
ECONOMY
In 1 9 8 0
A Summary of
BLS Projections
BULLETIN 1673
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
Bureau of Labor Statistics

l o

ENT

1970

COLLEC




THE U.S.
ECONOMY

In1 8
90

A Summary of
BLS Projections
BULLETIN 1673

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
J. D. Hodgson, Secretary
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS
Geoffrey H. Moore, Commissioner
1970

For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402 - Price 65 cents






FOREWORD
Manpower needs are inextricably interwoven with the changing nature of the
economy: Will it be growing? How many workers will want jobs? What will
be our manpower requirements? Will advancing technology affect the nature
of jobs? How will productivity changes affect job requirements? In this
bulletin, the Bureau of Labor Statistics looks 10 years ahead at the growth
and composition of the economy, its need for workers, and the likely supply
of manpower.
The past decade has been a period of rapid economic growth with major
improvements in living standards. Yet this record has been tarnished by the
inflationary developments of the past few years coupled with the impact of
serious social problems including urban congestion, pollution of the environ­
ment, and racial discrimination. The economic challenge of the coming decade
will be to contain inflation and yet keep output growing fast enough to absorb
the 40 million additional workers that seem headed, if our projections material­
ize, towards the job world. At the same time, the Nation must make progress
in meeting current social problems before these begin to affect adversely the
Nation’s ability to maintain its forward momentum.
Economic projections are only the beginning, not the end, of considering
the future. They provide a framework within which economic and social
policies, public and private, must be weighed and debated. In effect, they say:
In the light of all that is known about current and future economic develop­
ments, the 1980 economy will look like this . . . But the future is not immutable.
And whether or not projected economic growth and manpower requirements
will lead to equality of opportunity, improved job satisfaction, or a richer life
depends, not on projections, but on the human will and spirit.




G e o f f r e y H. M o o r e ,
Commissioner Bureau of Labor Statistics

m




PREFACE
The projections presented in this bulletin represent the work of a number
of Bureau personnel. Their individual contributions will be given proper
recognition in separate detailed studies to be published later this year. Special
mention should be made, however, of the senior economists who had primary
responsibility for supervising the staff research underlying the projections
and preparing the final detailed reports.
Sophia C. Travis, chief of the Division of Labor Force Studies: labor force,
with the assistance of Denis F. Johnston, statistician (demography), Office
of Manpower and Employment Analysis, who was specifically responsible
for the projection of the educational attainment of the labor force.
Ronald E. Kutscher, chief of the Division of Economic Growth : economic
growth, including gross national product, output, output per man-hour, and
total employment by industry.
Russell B. Flanders, chief of the Division of Manpower and Occupational
Outlook: wage and salary employment by industry and employment by
occupation.
The research activities were coordinated in the Office of Productivity
Technology and Economic Growth by Jerome Mark, Assistant Commissioner,
and Jack Alterman, director of the Bureau’s Economic Growth Studies, and
in the Office of Manpower and Employment Statistics by Assistant Com­
missioner Harold Goldstein.
The bulletin was written by Maxine G. Stewart, editor of the Occupa­
tional Outlook Quarterly.




v




CONTENTS
Page

Background of the projections, assumptions and techniques________
Assumptions______________ _____________________________
Projection techniques____________________________________

1
2
2

Productivity and Gross National Product_______________________
Expected labor force______________________________________
Growth, hours, productivity______
Purchasers of the GNP__________________________________
Industry output____________________________
Technological change____________________________________
Productivity change________________________ __________ __.

4
4
4
6
10
14
15

Projected employment by industry and occupation__________. . . _
_
Service-producing industries___________________
Goods-producing industries_______________________________
How the employment projections differ_____________________
Occupational employment________________
Net occupational openings___ ____________________________
Changes in occupational groups____________________________
Employment in a durables economy________ ________________

16
19
20
20
22
23
26

Projected shape of the labor force______________ _______________
Labor force changes____________________
__
Participation rates__________________
Educational attainment____ __________________ ____________

26
27
29
30

Some implications of the projections_________. . . ________________
Growth of the economy_______________________
Demographic changes in the labor force.._ __________________
Educational attainment of the labor force___________________

30

_ 17
_

... 30
32
34

Tables:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.

Gross national product by major component, selected years
and projected to 1980_____
Distribution of gross product, originating by major sector,
1965, 1967, projected to 1980______ ...________ ______
Gross product originating: average annual rate of change,
1968-80 (projected)_________________________________
Changes in total and wage and salary employment by indus­
try sector, 1965 and 1968 (actual) and 1980 (projected for
services and durable goods economies) __________________
Average annual rate of employment change by major occupa­
tional group, 1960-68 (actual) and 1968-80 (projected for a
services economy with 3-percent unemployment)________
Labor force balance sheet, 1960-70, 1970-80._____________
Distribution of college graduates by major occupational field,
1968 and 1980___ ___ ____ ____________ ____ _______




6
10
11
17
21
27
35
vn

CONTENTS— Continued
Charts:
Page

1. Projected productivity, by major sector, private economy,
1968-80_________________________________________
2. Differences in demand structure in a services economy and
in a durables economy, 1980 (both 3- and 4-percent un­
employment levels)________________________________
3. Average annual rates of growth in value of output, 1968-80
(projected in 1968 dollars)____ ______________________
4. Employment trends in goods-producing and services-producing industries, 1947-68 (actual) and 1968-80 (projected
for a services economy with 3-percent unemployment)___
5. Total employment: average annual rate of change by major
sector, 1960-68 (actual) and 1968-80 (projected for a
services economy)_________________________________
6. Total employment: average annual rate of change, by major
sector, 1960-68 (actual) and 1968-80 (projected for a du­
rables economy)_________________ '________________
7. Employment trends among major occupational categories
1947-68 (actual) and 1980 (projected for a services econ­
omy with 3-percent unemployment)__________________
8. Net j ob openings in maj or occupational categories and groups,
1968-80 (projected for a services economy with 3-percent
unemployment)___________________________________
9. Employment in major occupational groups 1968 (actual) and
1980 (projected for a services economy with 3-percent un­
employment)_____________________________________
10. The shape of the labor force, 1968 (actual) and 1980 (pro­
jected)__________________________________________
11. Major changes in the labor force,1960’s (estimated) and
1970’s (projected)_________________________________
12. Labor force and population, 1890 to 1980________________
13. Projected job openings for collegegraduates and projected
entrants, 1968-80_________________________________
Appendix tables_____________________________________________

vni




8
9
12
18
21
22
23
24
25
27
28
29
34
37

The U.S. economy in

1

9

8

0

This bulletin presents highlights of the

the shape of the U .S . economy in
1980— its output of goods and services, its labor

projections and is intended to be an overview,

force, its employment? New projections b y the

limited for the most part, to the major sectors

W h a t w il l b e

Bureau of Labor Statistics indicate that:
►

the labor force will have climbed by one-

fifth to 100 million workers, and will include a
large supply of young workers, age 2 5 -3 4 , totaling
26 million;
►

the educational level of the labor force

will have risen substantially;
growing at the rate of 4.3 percent a
year through the 1970’s, will have reached $1.4
trillion in 1968 dollars;
►

gnp

,

►

productivity,

hours will have declined to 38 a week, at

the very slow pace of 0.1 percent a year through
the 1970’s;
►

of the economy. Complete statistical detail cover­
ing labor force, output, productivity, and em­
ployment in over 250 individual industries and
detailed occupations is presented in the appendix
tables. Further publications and articles to follow
in late spring, will present more refined analysis
and more detailed information on the various
methodologies followed.

advancing steadily if at a

slightly slower pace than in the 1960’s, will have
increased 3 percent a year;
►

bls

industry employment will have continued

The econom y in 1980

BACKGROUND OF T H E P R O JEC TIO N S,
ASSU M PTIO NS, AND TEC H N IQ U ES
th ree
d e c a d e s , the Bureau of Labor Sta­
tistics has been making economic projections to

F or

to shift toward the service industries, including
trade and government; and
►
occupational employment will have con­
tinued a long-term shift towards the white-collar
occupations and those requiring the most educa­
tion and training.
B y themselves the projections summarized in
this report do not represent sharp departures from
the broad economic and manpower trends that
prevailed during the 1960’s. And yet, more people,
more growth, more goods and services, even if in

determine the N ation’s manpower requirements.
Following the recommendation of a Presidential
Advisory Committee on Education in 1938, the
Bureau’s initial program was set up to conduct
studies of projected employment trends and out­
look b y occupation for the career guidance of
young people and for the use of educators re­
sponsible for planning programs of vocational
education or training. A s the decade of the 1970’s
begins, the Bureau’s projections, now used for a

line with recent trends, could have cumulative
effects that m ay make the 1970’s quite different

wide variety of planning and policy development
purposes, represent one of the longest continuous

from the 1960’s. Moreover, m any crosscurrents
within the total m ay yield some quite dissimilar
trends from the 1960’s for smaller segments of the

systematic efforts to make economic projections
both in and out of Government.
In today’s growing and complicated society it

economy.

is not enough to know simply that the Nation

1
384-657




will need 100 million jobs for 100 million workers

United States will no longer be fighting a war, but,

by

on the other hand, a still guarded relationship
between the major powers will permit no major
reductions in armaments. This would still permit

1980. One must know what kinds of jobs?

W h a t skills? W h a t industries? H ow will job
requirements change as a result of technology?
W h a t will worker characteristics be— age, sex,
educational attainment? Only this kind of infor­
mation about tomorrow’s manpower requirements
will equip private and public policy to take the
measures to assure a reasonable balance between
workers and jobs, between the N ation ’s demand

some reduction from the peak levels of defense
expenditures during the Viet N a m conflict.
► A r m e d F orces strength will drop back to about
the same level that prevailed in the pre-Viet N am
escalation period.
► T h e in stitu tion a l fr a m e w o r k o f the A m e r ic a n
eco n o m y will not change radically.

for and supply of workers.
T o meet these needs, the Bureau has developed
and refined its projections so that they now

trends will continue, including values placed on

encompass

several

work, education, income, and leisure.

permit

comprehensive

a

integrated

components

view

of

that

tomorrow’s

economy and its manpower needs. Specifically,

► E c o n o m ic, social, technological, a n d scientific

► F isc a l a n d m o n eta ry 'policies will be able to
achieve a satisfactory balance between low un­

the projections cover labor force, hours of em­

employment

ployment, output per man-hour, potential demand
(gross national product or g n p ) , the composition

without reducing the long-term economic growth
rate.

rates

and

relative

price

stability

of demand, output and productivity b y 82 de­

► A l l levels o f govern m en t will join efforts to

tailed industry groups, and employment in over

meet a wide variety of domestic requirements, but
Congress will channel more funds to State and local
governments.

250 industries and in detailed occupations. The
projections are interrelated: the growth of

gnp

,

a foundation of the projections, is conditioned
upon

labor supply,

productivity

► E ffo r ts to solve the p roblem s p o se d b y a ir an d

changes, and

w ater p ollu tion a n d solid w aste d isp osa l, although

hours of work. The rate and direction of changes
in the major demand components of the g n p , in

they m ay preempt an increasing amount of the

turn, yield changing requirements for labor by
industry and occupation.
In this bulletin on the economy and its manpower
requirements in 1980, the projections are often
described

categorically— “ The

labor

force

N ation’s productive resources, will not lead to a
significant dampening of our longrun potential
rate of growth.
► F er tility rates w ill be low er than they have
been in the recent past.

will

expand by x percent b y 1980” ; “ The gross na­
tional product will expand by y percent a year.”
The intent is to show the results emerging from
the Bureau’s research that seem m ost likely to
occur but in all cases— even though the state­
ments m ay be stated categorically for ease in
presentation— they represent the Bureau’s best
judgment and are dependent on the realization
of the various assumptions on which the projec­
tions rest.

Projection techniques
Labor force and occupational projections cover
the period 1968 to 1980 because 1968 was the most
recent year for which complete data were available
at the time of the calculations. All other projections
— gnp,
hours,
productivity,
aggregate
and
industry demand, and industry employment—
are based from 1965 because the next 3 years
(1966 to 1968) were substantially affected by
the demands of the Viet N a m war. Since it is
assumed that these hostilities will be over by

Assumptions

1980, recent changes related to the impact of the
Viet N a m war were considered to be atypical and

The b l s projections about the world of 1980
discussed in this bulletin are based on these

unlikely to be characteristic of the years ahead.
Growth rates, in most cases, are shown not

specific assumptions:
► T h e in tern ation al clim ate will improve. The

only for 1 965-80, but also for 19 6 8 -8 0 to reflect
the impact of the intervening years. Since the

2




article was written, however, some 1969 data have

a somewhat higher rate, 4 percent. Projections

become available. Because a slackening of growth

at the lower rate are based on the assumption

in the economy occurred during 1969, the

that b y 1980 the country will have been able to

gnp

would have to grow at the rate of 4.4 percent a

develop a mix of public and private policies that

year for the period

can

196 9 -8 0 ,

rather than 4.3

assure such

a low rate without

creating

percent as shown for the 1968-80 period, to reach
the 1980 projected levels. Similarly, productivity
would have to grow at 3.2 percent a year rather
than the 3.0 percent shown. Projected employment

inflationary pressures. Since the same structure
of the economy for 1980 has been assumed for both
the 3-percent and the 4-percent unemployment
projections, the proportionate distribution of

growth remains unchanged at 1.7 percent a year.
T h e labor fo r c e p rojection , based on the Bureau
on the Census projections of population, is devel­

employment among major industry and occupa­
tional sectors is virtually the same for both

oped through separate projections of labor force
participation for the various age, sex, and color

projections except that all industries would have a
slightly higher level of employment under the

groups in the population. The detailed participa­

3-percent unemployment assumption. I t is recog­
nized that this assumption m ay be an oversimpli­

tion rates are then applied to the projected levels

fication; however, the magnitude of the difference

in each population group.

in employment that would result from a more

T h e econom ic grow th p rojection s are developed

discriminating set of assumptions for pinpointing

in consultation with the Interagency Committee
on Economic Growth, which consists of represent­

in the unemployment level would be quite minor

atives of the U .S . Department of Labor, the U .S.

except for relatively few industries or occupations.

Department of Commerce,

The discussion in this article will be limited to

the Bureau of the

the employment difference of a 1-percent change

Budget, and the President’s Council of Economic

the 3-percent unemployment assumptions. Tables,

Advisors. These projections have benefited from

however, show industry data for both alternatives.

the advice of— and have utilized the research

I n d u s tr y

and

occu pation al

em p lo ym en t

p ro jec­

product of— several other government agencies
and private research organizations that also par­
ticipate in the Interagency Growth Studies Pro­

tio n s — the end product of labor force

gram. The input-output tables developed by the
U .S . Department of Commerce’s Office of Business

employment, which includes wage and salary
workers, unpaid fam ily workers, and the self-

Economics provide the basic framework for the
growth projections.

employed, is obtained by calculations involving
projected changes in demand, interindustry rela­

T o explore the implications of alternative growth
rates and patterns, two different demand struc­

tionships, and output and productivity. The
employment projections are initially developed

tures of the economy are presented in this article:
one is based upon a continuation of the long-term
shift toward the purchase of more consumer and
public services. The other assumes a slower growth
in the trend toward services with correspondingly
greater emphasis on durable goods production:
Consumer, producer, and military. B oth these
demand structures start with approximately the
same level of potential output in 1980; the differ­
ences lie only in the composition of final demand
and its related components. Specific differences

for about 82 industries or industry groups, cover­
ing the entire economy. The employment esti­
mates are also distributed into much greater
industry detail (about 250 industries) b y using
regression analysis to estimate employm ent in
each industry consistent with the basic assump­
tions of the economic projections. The results of
the two methods are carefully analyzed and rec­
onciled for consistency. Finally, the employment
projections are converted into estimates of occupa­

are spelled out in later sections of the article.

occupational

W ithin each set of demand projections, two
alternative assumptions are outlined regarding

which, when combined with the industry employ­

and eco­
nomic growth projections, are arrived at b y
utilizing two projection techniques. T otal industry

tional

requirements
patterns,

by

projecting

industry

by

detailed
industry,

ment estimates, yield the final product of the

the unemployment rate: one assumes a 3-percent

entire

unemployment rate by 1980; the other assumes

estimates.




sequence

of

projections— occupational

3

(For a discussion of the uses to which the

final goods and services produced— gross national

detailed projections of industry and occupational

product ( g n p ) . For purposes of the

employment

projections, the value of the total national output
of goods and services is derived by projecting to
1980 the size of the work force, hours of work,

are

put,

see

the

M o n th ly

Labor

R ev iew , Novem ber 1969, p. 20.)

bls

economic

and the dollar value of goods and services produced

The econom y in 1980

P R O D U C TIVITY AND GROSS
N A TIO N A L PRODUCT

in each hour worked, referred to as output per
man-hour or productivity. Arrived at in this
way, b l s projections indicate the potential value
of all goods and services produced in 1980 m ay
reach $1.4 trillion in 1968 dollars. If prices were
to rise at the rate of 2.5 percent a year through
the 1970’s as they did through the 1960’s, the

projections of economic growth,
the anticipated number of people in the Nation

potential

and the proportion working or seeking work must

1980 dollars rather than $1.4
dollars.

B efore

m a k in g

be estimated. A s consumers, they provide the
potential demand for the N ation’s goods and serv­

gnp

would be $1.8 trillion in estimated
trillion in

1968

ices. As workers, they are also an essential element

In 1968 the economy produced goods and serv­
ices valued at $866 billion. Output of $1.4 trillion

in the production of goods and services.

by 1980 implies a growth rate of 4.3 percent a year

Expected labor force

over the time span from 196 8 -8 0 . Although very
healthy, this potential growth rate allows for some
slowdown in the economy from its performance of

B y 1980, 100 million Americans will be in the

4.5 percent growth a year during the 1 9 6 0 -6 8

labor force, if Bureau of Labor Statistics projec­

period. This apparent slowdown is not due to a

tions materialize, one-fifth more (22.4 percent)
than the 1968 labor force of 82 million.

reduction in the potential growth rate, which is

The working age population can be projected
with more confidence than some of the other
variables in economic projections since everyone
who will be old enough to work during the 1970’s
has been born already, and death rates and net
immigration are fairly steady. The U .S . Bureau

based on the assumption of the full utilization of
labor and industrial resources, but to the actual
growth in the 1960’s, which was based, in part, on
taking up the slack in resource utilization which
existed in the early part of the decade.

of the Census projects about 167 million people
of working age (16 and over) in 1980, and b l s
projects the labor force participation rate of these
people to increase only slightly between 1968 and
1980. Thus, the decade of the 1970’s will see
increases in both population and the proportion
of work-age people seeking jobs, but by far the
largest contributor to labor force growth will be
population expansion itself: 94 percent of the

H o u r s o f w o r k . Average weekly hours 1 have
been declining for several years. From 1957 to
1965, hours declined at a rate of 0.2 percent a
year for all private industry. The decline in hours,
projected over the 1 968-80 period, slows this
rate of decline somewhat to 0.1 percent per year.
In the early postwar period, the decline in hours
resulted, to a considerable extent, from a reduction
in the scheduled workweek. In later years, how­
ever, the increasing proportion of part-time em­

growth in the labor force will be attributable to a
bigger population, with the remaining 6 percent

ployees contributed more to the decline than
changes in the scheduled workweek. During the

caused by the expected increase in the participa­

years from 1956 to 1968, for example, when em­

tion rate.

ployment was growing by 1.5 percent per year,

Growth, hours, productivity

growth rate of 5.7 percent per year. The significant

part-time employment was speeding along at a
increase in part-time employment is due to (a) the
The m ost commonly used comprehensive mea­

rapid growth in employment in the service and

sure of output in the economy is the value of all

retail trade industries where part-time em ploy-

4




ment is common and (b) a companion increase in
the proportion of part-time workers used by these

For projection purposes, government hours are
held constant.

industries and the availability of individuals inter­
ested in part-time work. For example, the mush­
rooming of suburban shopping centers that have
m any branch stores and mall shops has contributed
to the expansion of the part-time work force. These
centers are both growing rapidly and using an
increasing proportion of part-time sales personnel
as they stay open later in the evening. Part-time
employees represented 6.8 percent of the total
employed labor force in 1956; by 1968, this pro­
portion had increased to 11.1 percent; b y 1980, it is
expected to be even larger.
This projected decline in average hours assumes
that labor and management will not be negotiating
major reductions in the nonfarm workweek by
1980. The continuing decline in hours will be
caused by the persistent increase in part-time
employment plus a continued small reduction of
the average workweek on the farm. The trend in
hours will differ among farm and nonfarm in­
dustries, and government.
O n the f a r m , hours o f w ork are expected to decline
to lf.3.7 a w eek b y 1 9 8 0 , or b y 0 .2 p ercen t a n n u a lly,

on the average, through the

1970’s (1 9 6 8 -8 0 ),

reflecting a longtime downward trend.
Hours were 44.8 per week in 1968 and 45.7 in
1965, the base year for the projection period, just
before the Viet N am escalation.
O ff the fa r m , exclu din g governm ent, hours p a id
f o r are expected to con tin u e to decline to 3 7 .8 a week
b y 1 9 8 0 , or b y 0 .1 p ercen t a yea r through the 1970’s

(1 9 6 8 -8 0 ). This rate of decline is somewhat less
than has occurred since the m id-1950’s. A ll non­
farm hours were 38.1 a week in 1968, and 39.0 a
week in 1965.
In the goods-producing industries, except agri­
culture, hours paid for began to climb in 1964
after several steady years. The upward trend was
caused primarily by an increase in overtime hours.
This trend has now reversed and through the
1970’s hours in the goods-producing industries
are expected to be relatively stable.
In the service industries, on the other hand,
hours paid for declined steadily from the end of

P r o d u c t iv it y

in

m ajo r

sectors

One

.

of

the

most important elements in making projections,
productivity, can be quite different among in­
dustries and quite different from year to year.
Productivity

patterns

have

been

and

are

expected to be different in each of the major
industry groups through the 1970’s (1 9 6 8 -8 0 ).
F a rm
p ercen t

p rod u ctivity
a

yea r.

grow th

w ill

Productivity

be

high

gains

at 5 .7

have

been

very high in recent decades because of more
efficient machinery and improved fertilizers,
farming techniques, and management practices.
Traditionally, gains in farm output per man­
hour, although fluctuating widely from year to
year, have been high. Through the 1970’s it m ay
increase,

on

the

average,

about

5.7

percent

annually, somewhat less than the 6-percent rise
annually in recent years. B u t even at this lower
average rate, the increases in farm output per
man-hour are expected to remain considerably
above that of the nonfarm sector.
N o n fa r m p rod u ctivity w ill advance stea d ily at 2 .9
percen t a y ea r. Even though nonfarm productivity

is expected to advance through the 1970’s at about
its long-term rate, individual industries within the
broad nonfarm sector m ay deviate from their past
productivity rates. The average rate projected
will permit productivity increases that are greater
than recent increases in some industries counter­
balanced by productivity change in other indus­
tries that will be lower than recent trends would
suggest.
P ro d u c tiv ity ga in s f o r

both f a r m

an d n on fa rm

in d u stries com bin ed w ill drop a little to 3 percen t
a yea r through the 1 9 7 0 ’s ( 1 9 6 8 - 8 0 ) . The combined

effect of these differing rates of gain in produc­
tivity for farm and nonfarm workers— 5.7 percent
and 2.9 percent, respectively— averages out to an
overall increase in productivity in the economy
of roughly 3 percent annually through the 1970’s,
a smaller growth rate than the long-term postwar
increase of 3.4 percent a year (1 9 4 7 -6 8 ).

W orld W a r I I to 1968. Trade and services are

G overnm ent p rod u ctivity is a ssu m ed at a constant

expected to continue a decline, though at a more

level through the 1970’s, because of the difficulty

modest rate, through the 1970’s.

of measuring the real output of government.2




5

Table 1.

Gross national product by major component, selected years and projected to 1980

[In billions o f 1968 dollars]

1980

Services econom y

Durables econom y

1968

1965

1957

Component

Percent distribution

1957

1965

3 percent
unem­
ploym ent
rate

4 percent
unem­
ployment
rate

3 percent
unem­
ploym ent
rate

$ 1 ,4 2 7 .8
903.2
137.6
3 46 .5
419.1

$ 1 ,4 1 5 .7
895.6
136.5
343.6
415 .5

$ 1 ,4 2 9 .6
8 8 8 .9
146.8
3 3 5 .0
407.1

$ 1 ,4 1 7 .7
8 8 1 .4
145.5
332 .2
403.7

5 2 .5
16.6

238 .9
160.4
6 0.7
1 7.8

2 3 7 .0
159.1
6 0 .2
17.7

1.7
0
.1
4
.2
1 .4

ss national product........... ............ .........................................
Personal consum ption expenditures..................................
Durable goods_____ ______________ _______________
Nondurable goods............... .............................. .............
Services_____________ _____________ _______________

$553.8
342 .8
4 2.9
162.4
137.5

$754.3
4 7 2 .0

Gross private dom estic investm ent....................................
Nonresidential.........- ......................................................
Residential structures_____ ____ ________ _________
Net inventory change____________________________

8 3 .6
56.1
2 6 .2
1 .3

118.9
7 8 .0
3 0.9

126.3
3 0 .2
7 .3

152.3
5 3 .0
16.7

7 .7

7 .9

2 .5

12.9

1 2.9

1 2.9

1 2.9

119.7
6 5 .2
5 4 .5

155.5
73.1
8 2 .4

200.3
9 9 .5
100.7

289 .7
107.3
182.4

287.1
106.4
180.7

288.9
125.9
163.0

286 .4
124.9
161.5

Net exports....................................................................... —
Government purchases..........................................................
Federal...................... ......................................................
State and lo ca l___________ _______________________

$865.7
536.6
8 3 .3
230.6

6 .8
8

209.1
194 1

22
2 .8
8 .8
8

1 .0
0

1968

4 percent
unem­
ployment
rate

22
2 .0

20
2.1
151.0

10
0 .0

10
0 .0

10
0 .0

15.1

15.8
1 0.3
4 .1
1 .3

1 4.6
1 0.3
3 .5

6 1 .9
7 .7
2 9.3
2 4 .8

6 2 .6
9 .1
2 7.7
2 5.7

1
.0
2 .7
0
.6
9

2 .6
1
1 .8
1
9 .8

10.9

6 2 .0
9 .6
2 6 .6
2 5.7

.8

.3
2 3.1
1 1.5

1 .6
1

This assumption can have a big influence on
what happens to average productivity in the

1970’s. Differences are assumed in the pace of
change, however, among the component pur­

coming years. Since government employment is

chasers of the g n p . These changes are shown in
detail in table 1. T o simplify this overview of

expected to rise substantially, and its productivity,
arbitrarily, is held constant, the increase in overall
productivity is lower than the projected growth

the projections developed by the

bls

,

the initial

in output per man-hour in the private sector
alone. If government employment were to expand

discussion will be limited to projections based on
the assumption of a continuation in the pace of
the shift towards services in an economy with 3 -

beyond

percent

of

the

projected

productivity

levels,

growth,

of

this

dampening

course,

would

be

these

unemployment.

projections

are

The

extent

modified

in

to

which

alternative

accentuated. (See chart 1.)

views of the economy will be summarized at the
end of each section.

Purchasers o f the GNP

c o n s u m p t io n
e x p e n d it u r e s . B y fa r
the largest purchasers of the g n p are consumers.
In 1980 they are expected to spend close to $900
billion on goods and services, more than the total
value of the g n p in 1968 which was $ 8 6 6 billion.
Consumer expenditures consist of three major
subcategories— durable goods, nondurable goods,

P ersonal

The projected 1980 g n p of $1.4 trillion will be
divided among four major categories of final
demand: Consumption, investment, government
purchases, and foreign purchases. The changes
that lie ahead in the composition of the total
gnp
m ay tell a great deal about the kinds of
industries— the kinds

of production— and

ulti­

m ately, the kinds of jobs that will be available
in 1980.
The mix of demand as between the services
and durable goods economies becomes significant

and services. B y 1980, durable goods and services
expenditures will be higher as a proportion of
total

pce

than at any time in the post-W orld W a r

period in all projections. In contrast to the up­
ward surge in expenditures for durables and
services, the proportionate share of nondurable

at this point in the level of projection detail.

goods will be smaller than in any recent year;

Both

and durable goods— reflect a continuation of the

their rate of growth over this period will be the
slowest of the three groups and about in line

past

with the historical trend.

bls

structures of the economy— services

trend in

6




aggregate

demand

through

the

Table 1. Continued— Gross national product b y major component, selected years and projected to 1980
[In dollars]
Average annual rates of change, 1965-80

Percent distribution
Services economy
1980

Durables economy
1980

Services economy

Durables economy

Average annual rates of change, 1968-80
Services economy

Durables economy
Component

3 per­
cent un­
employ­
ment
rate

4 per­
cent un­
employ­
ment
rate

3 per­
cent un­
employ­
ment
rate

4 per­
cent un­
employ­
ment
rate

3 per­
cent un­
employ­
ment
rate

4 per­
cent un­
employ­
ment
rate

3 per­
cent un­
employ­
ment
rate

4 per­
cent un­
employ­
ment
rate

3 per­
cent un­
employ­
ment
rate

4 per­
cent un­
employ­
ment
rate

3 per­
cent un­
employ­
ment
rate

4 per­
cent un­
employ­
ment
rate

100.0
6 3 .3
9 .6
2 4 .3
2 9 .4

100.0
6 3 .3
9 .6
2 4.3
2 9.3

100.0
6 2.2
10.3
2 3.4
2 8 .5

100.0
6 2.2
10.3
23.4
2 8.5

4 .3
4 .4
4 .7
3 .4
5 .2

4 .3
4 .4
4 .7
3 .4
5 .2

4 .4
4 .3
5 .2
3 .2
5.1

4 .3
4 .3
5 .1
3 .1
5 .0

4 .3
4 .4
4 .3
3 .4
5 .4

4 .2
4 .4
4 .2
3 .4
5 .3

4 .3
4 .3
4 .8
3 .2
5 .2

4 .2
4 .2
4 .8
3 .1
5.1

15.5
10.7
3 .7
1.2

15.5
10.7
3 .7
1 .2

16.7
11.2
4 .2
1.2

16.7
11.2
4 .2
1 .2

4 .3
4 .6
3 .7
3 .5

4 .2
4 .5
3 .6
3 .4

4 .8
4 .9
4 .6
3 .9

4 .7
4 .9
4 .5
3 .9

4 .8
4 .6
4 .8
7.1

4 .7
4 .5
4 .7
7.1

5 .5
5.1
6 .0
7 .7

5 .4
5 .0
5 .9
7 .7

.9

.9

.9

.9

3 .3

3 .3

3 .3

3 .3

14.7

14.7

14.7

14.7

2 0.2
8 .8
11.4

4 .2
2 .6
5 .4

4 .2
2 .5
5 .4

4 .2
3 .7
4 .7

4 .2
3 .6
4 .6

3 .1
.6
5.1

3 .0
.6
5 .0

3.1
2 .0
4.1

3 .0
1.9
4 .0

2 0 .3
7 .5
12.8

2 0.3
7 .5
1 2.8

2 0 .2
8 .8
11.4

One of the major causes of the upsurge in the
purchase of durables will be increased purchases
of furniture and household equipment. Large
expenditures for these items will come from the
increasing number of new families that will be
forming as many of the large number of young
people born in the early post-World War II
years set up housekeeping. In contrast, nondurable
expenditures for food and beverages and clothing
and shoes are projected to continue to decline as
a proportion of total p c e in line with the longrun
historical trend. Higher consumer expenditures
for services will reflect the rapid growth of expen­
ditures for medical care, private education, and
recreation. Despite varying rates of growth, the
dollar value of all categories of personal consump­
tion expenditures will be higher in 1980 than it is
today. (See chart 2.)
G o v e r n m e n t . B y 1980, governments are expected
to be spending more than they are today to attack
domestic problems that defy individual solution.
The Federal Government may participate directly
in some programs, but more funds are projected
to be channeled to State and local governments
than at present through grants-in-aid.
Government purchases at all levels under the
services economy are expected to rise to about
$289.7 billion in 1980, up from $200 billion in
1968. Nonetheless, the government proportion of




Gross national product.
Personal consumption expenditures.
Durable goods.
Nondurable goods.
Services.
Gross private domestic investment.
Nonresidential.
Residential structures.
Net inventory change.
Net exports.
Government purchases.
Federal.
State and local.

all g n p expenditures will decline somewhat— to
20.3 percent in 1980 in the services economy, down
from 23.1 percent in 1968. These declines are
largely a reflection of the projected cut in defense
spending; and they mask an accompanying in­
crease in State and local governmental expendi­
tures. In fact, total nondefense purchases, for
Federal, State, and local governments combined,
are projected to increase more than three-fourths
from 1968 to 1980.
Federal purchases by 1980 are expected to be
$107.3 billion in a services economy. They were
$99.5 billion in 1968. If the projected expenditures
materialize by 1980, the Federal share of g n p will
be 7.5 percent, down from 11.5 percent in 1968.
B u t if these 1980 Federal expenditures are com­
pared with 1965, before the escalation of the Viet
Nam war, the decline from 1965 is smaller—from
9.7 percent of g n p —because of lower defense
expenditures at that time. Defense expenditures
are projected to decline by 1980, reflecting the
assumption that the Viet Nam hostilities will be
over and the numbers in the Armed Forces will be
lower than they are today.
If the Viet Nam hostilities cool off, as is assumed,
expenditures to meet domestic needs are expected
to grow. Funds may be directed at a greater rate
than during the 1960’s into housing and com­
munity development, educational improvements,
and the expansion of social welfare programs.

7

These expenditures, of course, depend upon a
continuation of congressional appropriations for
legislation recently enacted and concerned with
health, education, conservation, pollution and
poverty. The projected Federal spending reflects
only direct Federal purchases of goods and services,
but many Federal costs show up elsewhere. For
example, increased costs of medicare and many of
the increased costs of environmental control will
show up in the projected increases in consumer
expenditures or business investment and increased
public education costs will be reflected in increased
State and local government expenditures, even
though the funds may come from the Federal
Government.
State and local governments are expected to
benefit from both an increase in the Federal funds
Chart 1. Projected productivity, by major sector, private
economy, 1968-80
m

— m ib i

>

;

m m m m

-

i

;
Actual
Employment
1 96 8 0

Average annual rate of change
1.0

8




2 .0

3 .0

4 .0

5.0

6.0

-

earmarked to help solve domestic problems at the
State and local levels and increased revenues from
higher tax collections. Reflecting this increased
income, purchases are projected to rise in the
services economy to the unprecedented height of
$182.4 billion, up from $100.7 billion spent in
1968 and exceeding projected purchases by the
Federal Government by nearly 70 percent. The
State and local government share of g n p will rise
from 11.6 percent in 1968 to 12.8 percent in the
services economy in 1980.
Education takes the lion’s share of funds at the
State and local levels, and its share will continue
about the same in 1980. State governments
usually pay for public higher education, and local
governmental units pay the m ajor share of public
elementary and secondary education costs. Fol­
lowing the strain of rapid increases in the number of
students in recent years, elementary school
enrollments will begin to decline in the early
1970’s, and secondary school enrollments will show
a significantly slower expansion. Nonetheless,
expenditures will continue to rise as school boards
look to quality improvement. Little letup in
pressures in higher education enrollment is seen for
1980 in public institutions despite a slowdown in
population growth. Compared with the 1960’s, a
larger proportion of college-age people are expected
to attend both community junior colleges and
State universities.
Environmental control measures are expected
to command a steadily increasing share of State
and local expenditures as public concern about
ecological health and safety accelerates. Some of
the costs of these improvements will be met by
higher tax revenues and others will be borne by
the consumer through increased prices.
Highway construction and maintenance, which
account for about one-fifth of all State and local
government expenditures today, are expected to
rise steadily in the 1970’s. State and local govern­
ments together are responsible for ownership and
maintenance costs of approximately 96 percent of
the highway mileage; the Federal Government,
the remainder. The Interstate Highway Program
scheduled for completion in the mid-1970’s will
have added 41,000 miles of highway since the
passage of the legislation in 1956. This additional
mileage must be maintained by State and local
governments.

Government activities concerned with urban
renewal, redevelopment, and rehabilitation asso­
ciated with the central cities all will require
greater expenditures for construction and capital
equipment. New low-income housing and urban
transit also will require heavy expenditures.
Public health, hospitals, and sanitation may
require large additional expenditures. Widespread
citizen concern for health care and additional
Federal funding undoubtedly will lead to the
development of many facilities for health care
such as regional health centers, community mental
health facilities, nursing homes, and establish­
ments to aid the physically and mentally handi­
capped.
Conservation and development of natural and
agricultural resources, including the operation of
parks and recreational activities, are expected to
require expanded expenditures in the coming
years. Although a relatively small part of total
State and local government costs, expenditures
on parks and recreation will be among the fastest
growing areas in terms of expenditures of all
State and local functions.

Spending for new plants is expected to grow
more slowly than spending for equipment because
the rate of construction growth for certain kinds
Chart 2. Differences in demand structure in a services
economy and in a durables economy, 1980 (both 3- and
4-percent unemployment levels)

Services economy
GNP: $1.4 trillion
(in 1968 dollars)

G r o s s p r i v a t e d o m e s t i c i n v e s t m e n t . B y 1980,
business investment may total $222.0 billion,
up from $126.3 billion in 1968. This investment
would result in a slight increase in the proportion­
ate share of g n p , from 14.6 percent in 1968 to
15.5 percent in 1980 in a services economy.

Durable goods economy
GNP: $1.4 trillion
(in 1968 dollars)

Other durables

1

N e w housing expenditures are expected to double

in value to $53 billion by 1980, according to the
services structure. Housing expenditures were
$30.2 billion in 1968. The need for housing is
expected to command a great deal of national
attention in the coming decade because of the
strong demand arising from the need to improve
living conditions in the ghettos, the large and
growing numbers of young adults who will need
housing—often apartments—for their new fami­
lies, and the large number of retired persons
seeking shelter in multiunit retirement develop­
ments.
P lant and equipment expenditures by business
may rise to $152.3 billion by 1980 in the services
economy, up from $88.8 billion in 1968. These
expenditures are expected to account for roughly
two-thirds or more of all gross private domestic
investment in the services economy.

]

Nondurable goods and services

1 Includes net exports and government purchases.
2 Includes government compensation and household services.

9
3 8 4 -6 5 7 0 — 7 0 --------3




Table 2. Distribution of gross product originating,1 by m ajor sector, 1965, 1968, projected to 1980
[Percent distribution]
1980
1965

Major sector

1968

Services economy—
3 percent unemploymentz

Durables economy—
3 percent unemployment2

100.0
Agriculture, forestry, fisheries........... ............... ............. ........................ ..................................................
Manufacturing..............................................................................................................................................
Transportation, communications, and public utilities.......... ........................................................................
Wholesale and retail trade___________________________________ _______ _________________________
Finance, insurance, and real estate-------------------------------------------- --------------------- - ............ .................
Services, including household services---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Government, including government enterprises............. .......... ..................................................................
1 Gross product originating is the value added by each sector to the total product.
Distribution at 4-percent unemployment is identical.

100.0

100.0

100 0

3.7
1. 7
5.1
28.2
8.2
lb. 5
13.4
11.0
12.1

3.1
1.6
4.6
28.5
8.5
16.5
13.5
11.0
12.4

2.9
1. 4
4.8
27.8
9.5
17.0
14.8
11.4
10.2

2.8
14
4 9
28.8
9.5
17.0
14.5
11.1
9.9

NOTE: Detail may not add to total.

2

of institutional and utility building and railroads
and farm structures is expected to be slow. Indus­
trial building expenditures will not quite match
the increases in equipment purchases, reflecting
the historical downtrend in the ratio of plant to
equipment expenditures. Through the 1970’s a
large gain is expected, however, in the construction
of office buildings, hospitals, and social and
recreational centers.
The net change in inventories —raw materials,
semifinish goods, and finished goods—is estimated
to total 1.2 percent of the 1980 output of $16.7
billion in the services economy—well over double
the 1968 level of inventories.
N et

f o r e ig n

p u r c h a s e s

o f

g o o d s

a n d

s e r v

­

Net exports are expected to increase five­
fold by 1980 to about $13 billion in 1980, according
to the projections for a services economy.
ic e s

C

.

o m p o n e n t

p u r c h a s e r s

in

a

d u r a b l e s

g o o d s

Although the assumptions in the dura­
bles projection that affect the real g n p growth
rate are very similar to the services projection,
the composition of demand shows the following
differences: (1) Total personal consumption ex­
penditures would be lower as a proportion of
total gross national product, but durable goods
would be a significantly higher proportion than
in the services projection, and both nondurable
goods and services would be somewhat lower.
(2) Gross private domestic investment in the
durable goods projection would be a slightly higher
proportion of g n p . Each of the subcomponents of
fixed investment would also be higher: Non­
e c o n o m y

residential structures, producers’ durable equip­
ment, and residential structures. The residential
structures component, however, is proportionately
higher than the other components of investment.
The level of residential structure assumed in a
durables economy is sufficiently high to encompass
achievement of the housing goals of 26 million
new dwelling units by 1978 and assumes a larger
proportion of single family housing units.
Federal Government purchases are higher in a
durables economy on the assumption of greater
expenditures for military hardware. State and
local government expenditures are lower, however,
so that the proportion of g n p devoted to Govern­
ment in the durables projection is similar to that
found in the services economy. Even though the
State and local government proportion of g n p in
the durables economy is lower than in the services
economy State and local government in the former
would still grow faster than g n p or Federal
purchases.

.

10




Industry output
After determining the potential size of the g n p
and its principal component purchasers, the in­
dustrial outlines of 1980’s economy emerge
through a series of interrelated steps that involves
translating the g n p into specific goods and services
purchased, such as food, clothing, rent, auto­
mobiles, drugs, cosmetics, and medical expenses.
These purchases of specific goods and services
are then allocated to 82 producing industries by
the application of a variety of techniques and

tools, different for each of the component pur­
chasers of the g n p . The final demand of the 82
producing industries is traced back to all the other
industries that contributed either directly or
indirectly to this final production through the use
of an input-output table; that is, a table used to
identify the industry origins of all the goods and
services that go into the production of a final
product. The great value of this kind of analysis
to manpower planners is that it permits detailed
analysis of the employment repercussions—or the
ripple effect—of changes in demand in one in­
dustry on all others. For example, a change in the
level of highway or school construction will affect
not only employment in the construction industry
but also in the steel industry and then in the iron
ore industry. To determine both the direct and
indirect effects on employment of a change in
expenditures for school or highway construction
requires knowledge of (a) what each industry in
the economy buys from every other industry to
produce its products (input-output relationships)
and (b) what employment requirements are per
dollar of output for each industry (productivity).
When each of these elements is projected to the
target year, it becomes possible to trace the
impact on employment of the projected purchases
of final goods and services back along the
entire chain of production, transportation, and
distribution.
Projections have been developed for the output
in 82 industries, but this article will deal with these
output projections aggregated into major sectors:
Manufacturing, mining, and so on, converted
into the value of the gross product originating, or
Table 3 .

value added terms, rather than the value of total
output to avoid double counting materials and
intermediate services.
In general, these industry sector projections con­
tinue long-term past trends except for a halt in
the downward slide in construction's share of
total output. The distribution of sector output
over time has shown agriculture, mining, and
construction declining steadily in relation to
total output; transportation and public utilities,
finance, insurance, and real estate gaining in re­
lation to total output; and manufacturing, trade,
and services staying roughly the same (chart 3).
Agriculture’s share of total output will decline
by 1980 to just below 3 percent in both the services
and durables projections. I t was 3.1 percent in
1968. (See tables 2 and 3.)
Although consumer food purchases through the
1970’s are expected to increase—more people, more
demand for food— their proportionate share of
total personal consumption expenditures ( p c e )
is declining. As the housewife buys more canned,
frozen, or precooked food, which has been proc­
essed in some other way, the value added to the
product by the manufacturing industry expands
while the farm share declines.
M anu factu rin g’s share of total output will con­
tinue at roughly 28 percent in 1980; it was 28.5
percent in 1968. Dissimilar trends will prevail,
however, for durable goods and nondurable goods.
Over the long run, durables—consumer, producer,
and military—have been increasing as a share of
total demand; nondurables, mainly consumer
purchases of food and clothing, have been declin­
ing. These trends are projected to extend to 1980

Gross product o rigina ting :1average annual rate of change, 1968-80 (projected)
1968-80 period
Services economy

M ajor sector

3 percent
unemployment

Durables economy

4 percent
unemployment

3 percent
unemployment

4 percent
unemployment

4 .3
Agriculture, forestry, fisheries__________________________________ ______ -

... ...

Construction_____________________________ . . . .
. . . ................
_ .. .
Manufacturing_________________ _____________________________________ . . __________
Transportation, communications, and public utilities_____________ _________________
Wholesale and retail tra d e ..
_____1______________________________________________
Finance, insurance, and real estate_________________________________________________

> Gross product originating is the value added by each sector to the total product.




4 .2

4 .3

4 .2

3 .4
3 .0
4 .7
4 .1
5 .3
4 .5
5.1
4 .6
2 .6

3 .3
2 .9
4 .6
4 .0
5 .2
4 .5
5 .0
4 .5
2 .5

3 .2
2 .9
4 .9
4 .4
5 .2
4 .6
4 .9
4 .3
2 .4

3 .1
2 .8
4 .8
4 .3
5 .2
4 .5
4 .8
4 .3
2 .3

NOTE: Detail may not add to total.

1

in both projections, but in the durable goods
economy the upward trend for durables is, of
course, accelerated.
Transportation, communications, and public util­

will show a small increase in their share of
total output through the 1970’s, in all projections,

ities

Chart 3. Average annual rates of growth in value of out­
put, 1968-80 (projected in 1968 dollars)

rising from 8.5 percent in 1968— to about 9.5
percent in 1980.
Finance, insurance, and real estate industries
will increase their share of total output in 1980
to close to 14.5 percent, up from 13.5 percent in
1968. This increase will reflect the surge in housing
expenditures by consumers, which are reported
as purchases from the real estate industry in the
form of rent and rental value of owned homes.
Service industries will expand slightly as a pro­
portion of total output by 1980 to close to 11.5
percent. The anticipated increase in consumer
expenditures for medical services will contribute
to this increased share in the services economy.
Trade will increase a little by 1980, to 17 percent
of total output in a service economy. It was 16.5
percent in 1968.
Construction's share of total output will rise
slightly to about 5 percent by 1980, up from 4.6
percent in 1968. This modest increase brings to
a halt a long run, severe downtrend. The increase
in the total value of production, will reflect
rising State and local government needs, increasing
housing requirements, and expanding investment
in plants.
M in in g will continue a slow decline in its share
of total demand through the 1970’s to about
1.4 percent in the services projection. It was 1.6
percent in 1968.
G r o w t h in
o u t p u t
b y
d e t a il e d
i n d u s t r y . To
project employment by detailed industry, it is
necessary to shift emphasis from demand for the
final products of industry to the value of all
direct and indirect contributions to the final out­
put. The larger value of production—including
the direct and indirect contributions to the final
product—is called gross duplicated output. This
value is eventually translated into employment
by industry in the economic model.
Appendix table 11 shows the average annual
rate of growth in output for both services and
durables economies at 3-percent unemployment.
The rates among industries shown in the table
range from a small decline to an increase that
exceeds 10 percent a year compounded. In this
latter case, such an increase would mean a more
than doubling of gross duplicated output by 1980.
For many industries, the growth rates are quite
similar between the two different structures of
demand. But, many industries in a durables

12




economy have a growth rate which deviates from
that in the services economy. In a durables
oriented economy, the durable goods industries
of the manufacturing group will show a faster
rate of growth in output than the same industries
in a services economy. And the services industries
will show a generally lower rate of growth in
output. To simplify the text, the discussion of
individual differences in growth rates that follows
will be confined to the 3-percent, services model.
The statistical information that will facilitate
the same comparisons between past and future
trends for the detailed industries on the durables
model are in appendix table 14.
The most rapidly growing industry in the coun­
try is the office, computing, and accounting
machines industry. Computer production now
dominates this industry. In the last 2 years,
computer output has grown at the staggering
rate of nearly 40 percent a year. Based on past
performance, an expected growth of computer use
in communications and data transmission and a
possible introduction of the computer into the
consumer marketplace, the projected rate of
growth remains extremely high through 1980.
Other industries that are expected to grow very
rapidly during the 1970’s are optical, ophthalmic,
and photographic equipment supplies (including
photocopying equipment); electronic components
and supplies; communications; plastics and syn­
thetic materials. Other industries that are also
expected to have high growth rates through the
1970’s are electric, gas, water, and sanitary
services; service industry machines (which in­
clude air-conditioning equipment); rubber and
miscellaneous plastics products; business serv­
ices; radio, television, and communications equip­
ment; and chemical and fertilizer mining. All of
these industries have experienced consistently
high growth rates in the recent past.
Some industries, however, are expected to show
a change in their growth rate in the 1970’s so
that it differs from their recent experiences.
Industries whose

rate

o f growth

in

output is

projected at least 1 percent higher than historical

The coal industry is recovering somewhat
from a very low rate of growth that has prevailed
for many years. Demand from the international
market is responsible for much of the improvement
in the growth rate in this industry. Nuclear
rates:




energy is expected to take some of the coal
market in the years to come so that the rate of
growth for coal in the latter part of the projected
period is expected to be slower than in the earlier
part.
New construction is expected to increase in the
1970’s because of demand for residential housing,
the continued strength of State and local gov­
ernment construction, and strong demand from
some segments of nonresidential construction,
particularly commercial and office building
construction.
The industries that supply construction ma­
terials, particularly fabricated structural products,
stone and clay building materials, construction
machinery, and to some extent, the metals and
lumber areas are expected to grow more rapidly
through the 1970’s than in the recent past. This
growth accompanies the expansion in new
construction.
The miscellaneous electrical machinery and
supplies industry will expand because of the
increasing use of batteries for a wide range of
industrial and consumer applications.
Transportation will grow faster than it has in
the past because of a continuing increase in air
travel, air cargo, and trucking.
The amusement industry is projected to -grow
because of increased leisure, higher consumer
incomes, and the modest recovery underway in
the movie industry.
Industries whose rate o f growth is projected at
least 1 percent a year lower than during the 1 9 5 7 -6 5

The synthetic fibres industry will grow
more slowly than in the recent past, but this
industry still will grow at an annual rate of
nearly 7 percent through the 1970’s.
The radio, television, and communications
machinery industry will decline from its 1957-65
rate of 9 percent a year to a projected rate of
just over 6 percent.
The electronic components industry will decline
from a 15-percent annual growth rate to between
8 and 9 percent for the 1970’s. This reflects the
difficulty of sustaining extraordinarily high growth,
and the slow growth projected in the purchases of
electronics for defense needs. Nonetheless, the
market potential remains strong for the products
of this industry, including color television re­
ceivers and telephone equipment.

period:

13

T ech n o lo g ica l ch a n g e

Volume of production and output per worker
are the elements most necessary to the projection
of employment in American industry. Since out­
put per worker m ay be affected by technological
changes in industry, these changes must also be
taken into account before employment can be
projected. The importance to attach to techno­
logical advance is a difficult judgment to make.
Changes in productivity growth often are loosely
attributed to our advancing technology. However,
historical evidence suggests that other factors—
economies of scale, the shift in employment in the
service industries in which productivity is usually
low—also are important influences on productivity
and must be considered in any model of tomorrow’s
economy.
The widespread use of the electronic computer
in the decade of the 1960’s will continue into the
1970’s. The computer has greatly facilitated the
capacity of our economy to cope with the needs
of its rapidly rising population. It is not only
directly responsible for many changes in American
industry, but it is intertwined in many other, less
spectacular, production improvements.
Bureau of Labor Statistics research indicates
that the principal technology changes that are
likely to affect the nature of work and worker
output through the 1970’s are as follows:
Computers

will

double

in

number

by

1980.

Numbering about 60,000 in 1969, computers are
mushrooming in all branches of industry, business,
and government. At least twice as many are
expected to be in operation by 1980. They are
widely used in most Federal Government offices
and in most large establishments in the insurance,
banking, aerospace, electrical machinery, and
automobile industries. Many small businesses, for
whom an installation has so far been uneconomical,
will lease computer time from service centers.
Time sharing of computer facilities, a relatively
new development, will continue to spread rapidly.
The extent to which computers will take over
our working and thinking functions is still un­
certain. But, at a minimum in the years ahead, it
is still likely that they will be used extensively for
large-scale routine data processing operations
such as accounting, billing, inventory control,
production control and planning; many scientific
and engineering functions; printing to speed
preparation of control tapes which guide type­
14



setting machines; storing and retrieving informa­
tion on crude petroleum and natural gas opera­
tions; designing and drafting new car models;
scheduling operations in oil exploration and in
construction; and numerical control of machine
tools.
Process computers are expected to increase sig­

B y 1980, nearly 10 times as many
installations as in the mid-1960’s are expected to
be using process computers, and the closed-loop
type of computer control is expected to dominate
the market. In the mid-1960’s, only about 1,700
process computers were in use.

nificantly.

The use o f instruments with delicate sensory capa­

Such instru­
ments will be designed for sensing, measuring,
and acquiring d ata and for controlling tempera­
ture, flow, and other industrial processes. Their
use will extend human sensory capabilities even
further and open new possibilities for scientific
advances and industrial automation.
bilities will expand during the 1 9 7 0 ’s.

Improvements in m achinery that do not involve
departures fr o m conventional design will
continue to be an important factor in raising
productivity in many industries through the
1970’s. Faster operation, larger capacity, auto­
matic loading and unloading devices, and auto­
matic lubrication will reduce significantly the
amount of labor required per unit of output in
some factory operations. The integration of a
number of separate operations into one large
specialized machine is expected to become more
common in industry than it is today.
Greater mechanization is projected for many in­
dustries, particularly steel, textiles, meatpacking,
printing, tire and tube manufacture, rail trans­
portation, and highway construction.
drastic

Faster, better communications will be among the
important factors in the growth o f the economy over
the next decade. D ata transmission, via telephone,
is expected to become an important adjunct of
electronic data processing. F ast copying machines,
color television, color printing, video tape record­
ers, Polaroid color cameras, teaching machines,
and new devices for speeding the mail will create
many opportunities for new investment and
employment growth.
Prospects for high quality international com­
munications via satellites will be spectacular
and the rapid growth of overseas telephone service
will contribute to a large-scale expansion of
international business operations.

Advances in metalworking technology m a y mean a

techniques.

faster rate o f technological change in m a n y sectors

The

For example, metal-cutting
and metal-forming tools will be improving con­
stantly. Numerical control and electrochemical
and electrical discharge machining will become
more widely used. A fairly rapid growth in the
use of numerically controlled machines tools is
expected over the next 5 to 10 years as its advan­
tages are better understood and as programing is
simplified. The amount of labor saved per unit of
output in machining operations could be
substantial.
E n e r g y and power innovations will develop. New
sources of energy, more efficient generation of
power, and new ways of transporting energy will
continue to be developed to meet the increasing
requirements of modern industry and urban
society.

vegetable

o f the economy by 1980.

Im proved

long distance

transportation system s

B y 1980, practically all scheduled
airlines will use high-speed, medium- and largesize jets. Research will result in improved airtraffic-control systems as will improvements in
passenger related ground activities such as ticketing
and baggage handling.
More powerful diesel-electric railroad loco­
motives pulling specialized cars of increased
capacity will haul longer trains at higher speeds
and with greater loads. New developments in
communications plus more widespread use of
electronic control systems in classification yards
and centralized traffic-control will facilitate rail
traffic. Increased attention will be directed toward
improving mass transportation in metropolitan
areas. Motor trucks with more powerful engines
and constructed of light-weight metals probably
will increase the capacity of trailer trucks.
In water transportation, faster ships will be
built with more automatic controls. In addition,
significant changes in ship design will heighten
the trend toward use of shipping containers, there­
by reducing labor requirements in cargo handling.
are in prospect.

The
ponents

use

in

construction

and fa ctory

o f prefabricated com­

manufactured

housing

will

significantly reduce the hours o f work on the site.

In addition, increased building efficiencies will
result from further improvements in earthmoving
machinery, new portable and automatic hand
tools, advances in paving materials and techniques,
further standardization of construction materials
and design, and new systematic scheduling




use

o f mechanical devices

harvesting will expand

fo r

jr u ii

rapidly

and

through

1 9 7 0 ’s. Mechanization will be most rapid
among those crops which are grown for processing
rather than for the fresh market. Research efforts
are expected to develop new crop strains that are
more easily harvested by mechanical means.

the

M edical

services

will

benefit fro m

the

use

of

Computers
will aid in diagnostic procedures and record
keeping; automatic chemical analyzers will speed
diagnosis and patient treatment, and electronic
devices such as the heart pacemaker and pros­
thetics will replace defective body parts.

computers and other electronic devices.

Pollution control will benefit fr o m more effective

which are needed to eliminate air
pollutants from automobiles, airplanes, and in­
dustrial plants, to reduce pollution of lakes and
rivers, and to handle the mounting debris of urban
centers.

control devices,

P roductivity Change

Projected change in output per man-hour in
each industry is the final step in determining
employment by industry. These projections are
constructed on the basis of the estimated levels
of industry output in 1980 and its past output
and productivity behavior, taking account of the
anticipated impact of technological innovations,
as well as any structural change occurring within
and between industries.
Like the rate of growth in output among indus­
tries, the rate of productivity change differs from
industry to industry. Technological breakthroughs
do not occur simultaneously throughout industry,
nor does investment follow a uniform pattern.
Furthermore, the effects of both factors are slow
to be reflected in productivity increases.
If each industry’s projected productivity is
compared with its projected output, the areas of
employment growth and decline come into focus
because of the close relationship between output
and productivity change. For instance, two
industries with high rates of productivity in­
crease—air transportation and coal mining—have
had opposite employment experiences because of
their different output situations. Productivity
went up an average 8.3 percent a year in both
industries between 1957 and 1966. In air trans­
portation, a rapid increase in output accompanied
15

productivity growth, and employment went up.
In contrast, output in coal mining remained stable.
In this instance, the increase in productivity
reflected greater efficiency in the use of labor as a
result of improved technology, and employment
dropped.
Clearly, productivity projections by them­
selves are not sufficient to identify industries
where employment will grow or decline. Employ­
ment can increase in industries with either high
or low productivity if output goes up enough,
ju st as it can decrease in industries with either
high or low productivity if output declines enough.
Productivity projections for major industry
groups show that the biggest increase in output
per man-hour between 1965 and 1980—5.9 percent
a year—should take place in agriculture. Since the
beginning of the century agricultural employment
has been dropping because of improved technology;
this trend is expected to continue.
The projected increase in output per man-hour
for all nonagricultural industries is 2.8 percent a
year. Productivity in manufacturing, transporta­
tion, trade, and finance, insurance, and real estate
is expected to increase at about this rate.
There are two major nonagricultural industry
groups where the rate of output per man-hour
increase is expected to be faster than in the other
groups—mining, and communications and public
utilities. The story in mining is the same as it has
been for several years: A large productivity rate of
increase accompanies a small increase in output
with a drop in employment as the result. In the
communications and public utilities group, the
rate of productivity increase will be approximately
the same as in mining, but the output situation
will be radically different. Mining has the lowest
projected rate of increase in output among non­
agricultural industries; communications and public
utilities, the highest. Employment in the com­
munications and public utilities group, nontheless,
will grow as improved technology permits these
industries to extend their services to a growing
population.
Two other major industry groups have projected
increases in output per man-hour that are lower
than the average rate for nonagricultural indus­
tries—construction and services. In general, in­
dustries in both these groups are labor-intensive,
and technological change has a more limited
influence on productivity.
16



The construction industry—presently being
encouraged to use more innovations in building
techniques by Operation Breakthrough, a new
program in the Department of Housing and Urban
Development—may benefit from more intensive
application of existing technology that would
increase the output per man-hour. Already,
prefabricated panels and shells for houses show
promise of more widespread use. In the service
industries because output is projected to grow
rapidly, the slow rate of productivity growth
means that the employment increase in this
group will be larger than in any other group.
Moving from major industry groups to specific
manufacturing industries, the output per man­
hour projections bear out a basic notion of pro­
ductivity behavior—productivity increases are
usually greatest in faster growing industries. Some
of the highest rates of increase in output per
man-hour are expected in industries making
optical and photographic equipment; office ma­
chines and computers; radio, television, and
communication equipment; and electronic com­
ponents and accessories.
Plastics and chemicals are also growing industries
and their productivity should increase rapidly
too. (See appendix table 15.)
Technology plays a big part in all these pro­
ductivity increases—large output increases bring
only small increases in employment. Other in­
dustries with high projected rates of productivity
growth—textiles and petroleum— anticipate slight
declines in employment despite higher than
average growth in output. These are older in­
dustries where technological improvements are
still displacing unskilled and semiskilled labor.

The economy in 1980

PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT
BY INDUSTRY AND OCCUPATION
T h e k in d and l e v e l of m anpow er requ irem en ts
of the 1970’s are intertw ined w ith the n atu re of
the in d u strial changes th a t seem likely to occur
over the decade.

General trends and growth factors that are
expected to affect industry employment in a
services economy (with 3-percent unemployment)

portation will increase fast enough to offset what­
ever further small railroad declines occur; an
overall slow gain in employment is projected.
Public utilities and communications are highly
productive service industries. Hence, even though
the services provided by these industries are ex­
pected to expand significantly—output has the
highest projected rate of increase through the
1970’s among all nonfarm industries—employment
will increase only moderately to 1980 and will
decline as a proportion of total employment.

through the 1970’s are described below for the
major industry groups. (See chart 4.)
S erv ice-p rod u cin g industries

The most dramatic change in industry employ­
ment in recent years has been the employment
shift towards service-producing industries. Shortly
after the turn of this century, only 3 in every 10
workers were in service industries. B y 1950, the
weight had shifted to just over 5 in every 10 in
service industries; by 1968 the proportion had
inched to 6 in every 10. In 1980, close to 7 in every
10 workers—or 68 million— are projected to be in
service industries. (See table 4.)
T r a n s p o r t a t io n ,

c o m m u n ic a t io n s ,

and

T r a d e . The largest of the service industries,
wholesale and retail trade, is interwoven through­
out the economic system in a network of wholesale
and retail establishments. Trade employment
changes are expected to parallel those of the whole
economy and with trade’s relative share—onefifth—of total employment remaining about the
same in 1980. Employment, however will rise
from 16.6 million in 1968 to 20.5 million, in 1980.
Retail trade employment will expand most
rapidly in general merchandise stores and eating
and drinking establishments. Technological de­
velopments such as vending machines, other
self-service gadgets, and electronic computers for
inventory control and billing will tend to retard
employment growth.
Wholesale trade employment will increase more
rapidly than that of retail trade. Employment in
motor vehicles, automotive equipment, and

p u b l ic

Employment in this group of industries
is expected to increase to close to 5 million in 1980,
up from 4.5 million in 1968. Despite this small
employment gain, its share of total employment
will decline from 5.6 percent in 1968 to 5 percent.
Transportation employment has been dominated
by the long, slow decline in railroad employment
during the postwar period. Even though employ­
ment in trucking and air transportation has
expanded, the decline in railroad employment has
been severe enough to cause an overall decline in
the average for all transportation industries. B u t
a turn around is expected: trucking and air trans­
u t il it ie s .

Table 4. Changes in total and wage and salary employment by industry sector, 1965 and 1968 (actual) and 1980 (projected
for services and durable goods economies)
[In thousands]
1980
1965

3-percent
unem
ploym
ent

Industry sector

D
urables econom
y

Services econom
y

1968

4-percent
unem
ploym
ent

3-percent
unem
ploym
ent

4-percent
unem
ploym
ent

W
age
W
age
W
age
W
age
W
age
W
age
Total
an
d
an
d
Total
Total
Total
and
Total
Total
an
d
an
d
an
d
ploy­ salary
em
ploy­ salary em
ploy­ salary em
ploy­ salary em
ploy­ salary em
ploy­ salary em
ploy­
ent em
ent em
ent em
ploy­ m
m
ent em
ploy­ m 1 em
ploy­ m
ploy­ m
ent em
ploy­ m
ent
ment1
m 1
ent
ment1
m
ent
m i
ent
ment1
G O S P O U IN
OD RDC G
Total_______ ____ _________________________
Manufacturing.......................................
Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries_________________ ____
C
onstruction....................................
M
ining............... ...... .........

27,786
18,454
4,671
3,994
667

26,401
18,062
4,521
3,186
632

78,975
20,125
4,154
4,050
646

27,657
19,768
4,012
3,267
610

31,618
22,358
3,188
5,482
590

30,115
21,935
3,030
4.600
550

31,200
22,133
3,156
5,427
584

22,809
21,712
3, 000
4,553
544

32,515
23,240
3,192
5,595
588

31,112
22,817
3,034
4,713
548

32,286
23,005
3,160
5,539
582

30,795
22,584
3,004
4,665
542

Total____ ____________________ . . .
Services industries....................
Trade_________________
Transportation, com unications, and public utilities.
m
Finance, insurance, and real estate____

46, 782
13,722
15,352
4,250
3,367

41,367
11,501
12,716
4,036
3,023

51,813
15,113
16,604
4,524
3,726

46, 449
12,826
14,081
4,313
3,383

67,982
21,080
20, 487
4,976
4,639

62, 085
18,660
17,625
4,740
4,260

67, 300
20,867
20, 282
4,926
4, 593

61,465
18,474
17,450
4,692
4,217

66,785
20, 585
20, 501
4, 961
4,538

60, 885
18,165
17,639
4,725
4,159

66,114
20,376
20,296
4,911
4,493

60,279
17,983
17,464
4,677
4,117

Government................

10, 091

10, 091

11,846

11,846

16,800

16,800

16,632

16,632

16,200

16,200

16, 038

16,038

SE VIC P O U IN
R E RDC G

1E
xcept for agriculture w
hich includes self-em
ployed and unpaid fam w
ily orkers.

17
384-657 0 — 70------- 4




machinery equipment and supply will be among
the faster growing areas.
F in a n c e , in s u r a n c e , and r e a l e s t a t e . E m ­

ployment in these industries is expected to increase
at about the same rate as total employment each
year through the 1970’s and to account for only a
slightly larger share—4.7 percent—of total em­
ployment in 1980 than in 1968. Employment,
however, will rise from 3.7 million in 1968 to 4.6
million in 1980.
Banking employment is expected to grow at a
slower pace than in the last decade as advancing
automation eliminates many clerical functions.
Electronic data processing equipment also is
expected to slow employment growth in the
security dealers and exchanges sector, a rapid
growth area. Increase in the size of firms may also

limit employment gains.
Although restrained somewhat by the com­
puterization of recordkeeping functions, insurance
employment will continue to grow at about the
same pace as during the 1960’s because of the
steadily rising population.
Real estate employment will grow at a slightly
faster pace than in the past decade: it is little
affected by technological advances but highly
responsive to the rising number of family
formations.

These industries, including private
household employment, will increase their share
of total employment by 1980, rising from 18.7
percent in 1968 to about 21 percent in 1980 and
at a faster rate than total employment. Employ-

S e r v ic e s .

Chart 4. E m ploym ent1 trends in goods-producing and services-producing industries, 1947-68 (actual) and 1968-80
(projected for a services economy with 3-percent unemployment)

M
illions of workers
Service producing
Transportation and
public utilities
Trade
Finance, insurance,
and real estate
Services
Government

Goods producing
M
anufacturing
Contract construction
M
ining
Agriculture

1980

1947

1Wage and salary workers only, except in agriculture, which includes
18




self-employed and unpaid family workers.

ment will rise to 21 million in 1980, up from 15
million in 1968.
Em ploym ent growth in this heterogenous group
of

service

industries,

which

include

personal,

business, health, and educational services, will be
related to a substantial increase in population, a

half of total
governments.

employment

in

State

and local

Goods-producing industries

rapid rise in personal disposable income, expanding
economic activity, and a growing demand for

Despite a steadily rising total output of goods
to unprecedented levels through the 1970’s, the
goods-producing industries encompass the only

medical, educational, and other services. The
output of these labor-intensive industries is less

major industries in which employment is expected

affected b y technological change than m any other
industries, hence their employment growth is not

industry— manufacturing— for which employment

restrained very much b y productivity advances.
W ithin

the

services

division,

to

decline— mining

and

agriculture— and

one

growth is expected to be slower than during the
1960’s. Only one goods producer, construction, is

employment

expected to show a quickened pace of employment

growth is expected in all m ajor industries between

growth through the 1970’s. This modest employ­

1968 and 1980, ranging from 14 percent for motion

ment

picture employment to almost 100 percent for

industries, in the face of an overall healthy in­

miscellaneous business services. Growth in busi­

crease in output, reflects, of course, their rising
productivity.

ness services is expected to be particularly rapid

expansion,

overall,

for

goods-producing

as firms rely increasingly on advertising services

Altogether, the goods-producing industries em­

to sell their products; on accounting, auditing,

ployed 29 million workers in 1968 and are expected

bookkeeping, and computing services to handle

to increase to 31.6 million b y 1980. However, their

their recordkeeping; on contract firms to provide

share of total employment will drop to less than a

maintenance service; and on audit bureaus and

third b y 1980 from about 36 percent in 1968.

collecting

agencies

to cope with mushrooming

consumer credit.

A g r ic u l t u r e .

Large increases in productivity,

small gains in output, and a continuing concentra­
G overnm ent.

government

Em ploym ent has grown faster in

than

in

any

other sector in

the

tion of employment on large farms will result in
further decline, about 1 million, in agricultural

economy. From 1960-68 employment grew at the

employment between 1968-80. The agricultural

rate of 4.5 percent a year, nearly 2% times the rate

share of total employment will also decline from

for total employment. The sharp rise in recent

5.1 percent in 1968 to 3.2 percent in 1980.

years has been stimulated, however, b y the needs
of the Viet N am war as well as b y the rapid growth
in population, the increasing proportion of young

M in in g .

and old persons in the population who require
more services, and the general growth in demand
for more and better government services. E m p loy­
ment is projected to rise more slowly through the
1970’s— at 2.9 percent a year— reaching 16.8
million in 1980, up from 11.8 million in 1968.
Em ploym ent among Federal Government workers
will rise only slightly, but State and local employ­
ment will continue to expand rapidly.

many years because of above average gains in
productivity and decreased demand, particularly
for coal. Mining is projected to have the lowest
rate of increase in output among all nonfarm
industries. Continued employment declines are
projected through the 1970’s although at a re­
duced rate because of some resurgence in the
demand for coal. Em ploym ent will be less than
600,000 b y 1980.

Em ploym ent

has

been

declining

for

Although the rate of increase in State and local

Future employment growth will be limited b y

government employment will be higher compared

the increasing use of new and improved labor-

with almost any other sector, the growth will be

saving devices and techniques, such as continuous

slower than during the 1960’s, mainly because of

mining

an anticipated easing in the rate of growth for

exploration and recovery techniques in crude oil

educational services, which account for roughly

and natural gas extraction.




machinery

systems

and

more

efficient

19

This industry m ay benefit from

ment include numerical control of machine tools,

intensive application of existing technology that

new metal processing methods, machinery im ­

would increase the output per man-hour. Already,
prefabricated panels and shells for houses show
promise of more widespread use. A t the same time

provements, improved materials handling (includ­
ing layout), new and improved raw materials and
products, instrumentation and automatic controls,
and electronic computers.

C o n s t r u c t io n .

the national housing goal for the decade 1 9 68-78
calls for the construction of 20 million new housing
units in the private market and the production of
6 million new and rehabilitated units with public
assistance in one form or another. This will spur
growth in the construction industry, which is ex­
pected to grow at 2.5 percent a year in the 1970’s,

How the em ploym ent projections differ
Em ploym ent projections for a durable goods
economy, even though weighted more heavily
toward the production of goods, still produce an

Additional demand will come from an expansion

economy weighted more toward the service sector
than the present one. The rate at which employ­

in State and local government needs, particularly

ment shifts away from the goods-producing part

nearly twice its growth rate during the 1960’s.

for highway construction and new and rehabili­

of the economy, however, is slower in the durable

tated housing units, and from expanding invest­

goods projection than in the services projection.

ment in industrial plants. Em ploym ent will rise

Durable

goods

manufacturing

accounts

for

from 4 million in 1968 to nearly 53dz million b y

about 1 percent more of total employment under

1980.

the assumptions upon which the durable goods
economy projections in 1980 are based than under
the assumptions used for the services economy

M a n u f a c t u r in g .

Still the biggest industry, m an­

ufacturing is expected to remain as the largest

projections. Em ploym ent in the nondurable goods
industries, however, is only modestly changed

single source of jobs in the economy. Manpower
requirements in manufacturing, however, are

between the two structures of the economy. Trans­
portation and trade are both roughly the same;

expected to increase at a slower pace, at 0.9 per­

manufacturing is slightly higher; services and
government, slightly lower. In both types of

cent a year, than that experienced during the
1960’s, chiefly because the recent increases in
employment in industries heavily oriented toward
defense— ordnance, communications equipment,

economy, manufacturing shows a declining pro­
portion of total employment while services and
government show increasing proportions of total

electronic components,

employment. (See charts 5 and 6.)

aircraft and parts,

and

shipbuilding— are not expected to continue at
the same pace in the 1970’s. Em ploym ent, how­
ever, will rise from 20 million in 1968 to 22.4
million in 1980.

Occupational em ploym ent

erated b y the significantly increased demand for

Industry changes during the 1970’s will have a
strong influence on occupations— which ones will
grow and which will contract. Each industry in the
economy requires a specific mix of occupations. As
industries react to changes in final demand and
in relation to each other, the relative importance

building materials for housing construction. A s in

of particular occupations also changes.

In general, manpower requirements will con­
tinue to increase faster in durable goods manu­
facturing than in nondurable goods industries.
Growth in the durable goods sector will be accel­

in individual

Beyond the effect of interindustry relationships,

manufacturing industries are expected to vary

industry occupational structures are also affected

widely, depending on the im pact of technology

by internal changes within industries. Just

as well as shifts in demand. The increasing appli­

technological advances that increase worker pro­

cation

ductivity have significantly affected employment

the past, changes in employment

of

technological

innovations

to

m anu­

as

facturing processes is expected to continue to

and output, these advances significantly affected

reduce unit labor requirements in manufacturing.

the occupational structure of the work force. A s a
result of technological innovations, new occupa­

M ajor technological developments that will con­
tinue to limit growth in manufacturing employ­

20




tions

have

emerged;

others

have

expanded,

Chart 5. Total employment: average annual rate of change, by major sector, 1960-68 (actual) and 1968-80 (pro­
jected for a services economy)

-5

-4

-3

- 2 - 1 0

0

+
1

+2

+3

+4

+5

T tal
o
A
gricu re, forestry a d
ltu
n
fish
eries
M in
in g
C stru
on ction
M u
an factu g
rin
Durable

N o n d u r a b le

T sportation com u
ran
,
m nications
ad pb u
n u lic tilities
T d
ra e
F a ce in ra ce a d
in n
su n n
r a esta
el
te
S ices (in d g h seh )
erv
clu in ou old
G
overn en
m t
I
I

I 1968-80 S ices econom 3% u ploym
erv
y,
nem
ent

I 1960-68
flHHI 1968-80 S ices econom 4% unem
erv
y,
ploym t
en

contracted, or even disappeared; and the content

Em ploym ent in these occupations will rise from

and skill requirements of a great m any occupations
have been altered. B u t technology and final

35.6 million in 1968 to 48.3 million in 1980.
B lu e-colla r occu p a tion s, a slow growing occupa­
tional group, will account for almost one-third
(32.7 percent) of the work force by 1980, down
from 36.3 percent in 1968. Em ploym ent, however,

demand are not the only factors affecting occupa­
tional shifts. Changes can occur as a result of
revised work rules, new directions in governmental
policy, and severe shortages that force sub­
stitutions in the kinds of workers hired (table 5).
Several long-term occupational trends are ex­
pected to continue:
growing

will rise from 273=^2 million in 1968 to 31.1 million
in 1980. M a n y occupations within the group,
particularly in the skilled craft and foremen
category, require years of specialized training.
F a r m w orkers will continue to decline— from 4.6

occupational group over the past 50 years, will

percent of the work force in 1968 to 2.7 percent in

continue in that mode. This group, which sur­
passed employment in blue-collar occupations for

1980— as machines take over m any more of the
production processes on the farm. Em ploym ent

the first time in 1956, will account for about half
of all employed workers (50.8 percent) by 1980.

will also shrink from S } 4 million in 1968 to 2.6
million in 1980.

W h ite-co lla r

occu pa tion s,




the

fastest

21

net job openings3
—transfers between occupations
cancel out—this balance in no way suggests a
perfect fit between entry requirements and worker
qualifications. Such a match depends on the
future education and training of young people,
the degree of flexibility workers show in adapting
to changing requirements and employers utilize
in adapting hiring standards to the available
labor force. Average annual openings by detailed
occupation may identify those areas where oppor­
tunities are numerous and help young people make
their career plans based on the best available
information. (See chart 8.)

S ervice occu p a tion s will continue to expand
through the 1970’s increasing by two-fifths, which

is more than one and a half times the expansion
for all occupations combined. Em ploym ent will
rise to 13.1 million in 1980, up from 9.4 million in
1968. (See chart 7.)

Net occupational openings
Projections of occupational requirements, which
encompass the total employed civilian work force,
indicate that the total openings arising from occu­
pational growth and replacement needs will be
about 48 million between 1968-80, or about 4

R ep la cem en t

n eed s — about

28

million in the

million jobs to be filled every year throughout

1970’s— will be the most significant source of job

the period. Although the inflow to the labor force
through the 1970’s matches the overall number of

openings

in

each

of

the

major

occupational

areas— white-collar, blue-collar, service, and farm.

Chart 6. Total employment: average annual rate of change, by major sector, 1960-68 (actual) and 1968-80 (pro­
jected for a durables economy)

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

0

+1

+2

+3

+4

+5

T tal
o
A
gricu re, forestry a d
ltu
n
fish
eries
M in
in g
C stru
on ction
M u
an factu g
rin
D ura ble

N o n d u r a b le

T sp
ran ortation com u ication
,
mn
s
ad pb u
n u lic tilities
T d
ra e
F an instance a d
in ce,
n
le l esta
a
te
S ices (in d g h seh s)
erv
clu in ou old
G
overn en
m t

3

I ------ 1 1960-68

[= □

1968-80 D ra les econom 3% un ploym
u b
y,
em
ent

22




1968-80 D ra les econom 4% unem
u b
y,
ploym
ent

Table 5. Average annual rate of employment change, by
major occupational group, 1960-68 (actual) and 1968-80
(Projected for a services economy with 3-percent un­
employment)

1 6 -8
98 0

1 6 -6
90 8

Oc ptio a g u
cua nl ro p
Tta _____ ___ _______
o l__
Wite o rwrkrs______________
h -c lla o e
P fe n te h ic l, a dk d ____
ro ssio al, c n a n in red
Mng rs, o ia a dp p rs..........
a a e ffic ls, n ro rieto
C rical--- --- ----------------le
Sales___________________
B e llarwrk
lu-co o ers.-------- --------- C e a dforem
raftsmn n
en...----- -----O
peratives...--- ----------------

1.8
2.8
4.1
1.2
3.5
1.2
1
.7
2.0
2.0

S icewrk
erv o ers________________
Frmw
a orkers................ ..................

2.0
-5.1

1.9
2.6
3.4
1
.7
2.5
2.2
1.0
1
.7
0.8
-0.1
2.8
-3.4

The need to replace workers who leave the labor
force— primarily

due

to

death

and/or

retire­

ment— will account for 3 in every 5 job openings
during the period from

1 9 6 8 -8 0 ;

occupational

growth will account for 2 in every 5 openings.
Replacement needs are likely to exceed the
overall in those occupations that (a) employ
m any women, who frequently leave the labor force
to assume family responsibilities, and (b) have a
large proportion of older workers who have rela­
tively few years of working life remaining.
Growth n eed s — about 20 million— reflect indus­

try changes as well as technological changes during

The long term rise in demand for goods and
services, resulting from population growth and
rising business and personal incomes, will account
for much of the need for these highly trained
workers (as well as for the increases among other
groups of workers). The increasing concentration
of the population in metropolitan areas also will
create new demands for professional and technical
personnel to work on environmental protection,
urban renewal, and mass transportation systems.
In addition, efforts to develop further the N ation's
resources and industry and the quest for scientific
and technical knowledge will generate new re­
quirements for professional workers.
M a n a g e r s , o ffic ials , an d

pro prieto rs .

Em ­

ployment in this occupational group, rising more
slowly than total employment, will reach 9K m il­
lion in 1980, up from 7.8 million in 1968. Its share
of total employment will continue at about 10 per­
cent.
Changes in

the scale

and

type

of business

organization have had divergent effects upon the
various segments of this occupational group. In
retailing, for example, the establishment of chain
Chart 7. Employment trends among major occupational
categories,1 1947-68 (actual) and 1980 (projected fo r a
services economy with 3-percent unemployment)

the 1970’s that, in turn, will determine, in large
measure, which occupations will grow, which will
contract.

Pr e t
ec n
100

Changes in occupational groups
Em ploym ent requirements to 1980 have been
projected for the 9 major occupational groups and
for about 250 detailed occupations (chart 9).
P r o fe ssio n a l , te c h n ic a l , a n d k in d r e d . E m ­
ployment growth in these occupations has out­
distanced that in all other major occupational
groups in recent decades. From less than a million
in 1890, the number of these workers has grown
to 10.3 million in 1968. A n d requirements for

W ite o r
h -c lla
w rk rs
o e

8
0
6
0

4
0
Beo r
lu -c lla
wr e s
okr
20

these occupations will continue to lead other cat­
egories between 1968 and 1980, increasing half

S r ic w rk rs
ev e o e

again in size, which is twice the employment in­
crease among all occupations combined. A t 15 %

F r w rk rs
am o e
1947

1950

1960

1968

1980

million in 1980, employment in this occupational
group will represent 16.3 percent of total employ­
ment, up from 13.6 percent in 1968.




1Frmwrkrs in d farmm agers.
a o e clu e
an
23

stores such as supermarkets and discount houses
has

eliminated

m any

small

businesses,

thus

Proprietors are expected to continue to decline

reducing the number of self-employed proprietors.

as the trend toward larger firms restricts growth
of the total number of firms, and as small grocery

In contrast, the number of salaried managers and
officials has increased significantly. The net result

and general stores and hand laundries continue to
disappear. The expansion of quick service grocery

of these opposing trends will probably be a slower

stores, self-service laundries and drycleaning shops,

increase in employment in the manager-proprietor

and hamburger and frozen custard drive-ins, how­
ever, will slow the rate of decline.

group as a whole than in any other m ajor group of
white-collar workers.
the increasing

l e r i c a l . Em ploym ent in clerical jobs is expected
to grow considerably faster than total employment

dependence of both business and government on

rising to 17.3 million in 1980, up from 12.8 million

trained

Technological

in 1968. This rate of growth, although rapid, is

development will contribute further to employ­

considerably slower than that experienced from
1960-68.

Dem and for salaried managers and officials is
expected

to

grow rapidly with

management

specialists.

ment growth of these occupations. For example, an

C

increasing number of technical managers is needed

Clerical workers, the largest single category in

to plan research and development programs and

white-collar employment, will be affected b y the

to make decisions on the installation and use of

rapid technological developments in the fields of

automated
machinery
processing systems.

computers, office equipment, and communication

and

automatic

data

devices in the 1970’s. For some, the effect of these
technological improvements will in time retard
the growth of em ploym ent; for others, the demand

Chart 8. Net job openings in major occupational cate­
gories and groups, 1968—
80 (projected for a services
economy with 3-percent unemployment)

-1
0

for processing the increased information becoming
available through these improvements will accen­
tuate growth in their ranks.
Technological developments will limit employ­

0

+10 +20 +30 +40 +50

ment growth for certain types of clerical workers.
T o illustrate, the use of electronic computers and

All occupations

bookkeeping machines to process routine and
repetitive work is expected to reduce the number

White-collar

of clerks in jobs such as filing, payroll, inventory
control, and customer billing. On the other hand,

P fe n l &te n l
ro ssio a
ch ica

laborsaving innovations will be offset to some
extent b y growing requirements for clerical per­
sonnel to prepare computer inputs.

M n g rs, o
a a e fficia &
ls,
p p rs
ro rieto
Cr a
le ic l

The rapid growth of industries that employ
large clerical staffs, particularly those such as
finance, insurance, and real estate, is a major
factor in the projected level of clerical demand.
Clerical employm ent will increase its share of
total employment from 16.9 percent in 1968 to
18.2 percent in 1980.

S le
as
Blue-collar

C ftsm a d forem
ra en n
en
O e tiv s
p ra e
N fa la o rs
on rm b re

S a l e s . The anticipated expansion of trade should
increase the demand for sales personnel— partic­

Service

ularly for

Farm

1
...... ) G w
ro th

part-time

techniques

in

employees— but

merchandising

m ay

changing

hold

down

some of the increase. Em ploym ent is expected to

R la en
ep cem t

rise from 4.6 million in 1968 to 6 million in 1980
and at a slightly faster rate of increase than is
expected in total employment. Sales share of total

24




employment will continue a little over 6 percent
through the 1970’s.
C raftsm en ,

forem en

,

and

k in d r e d

w o rk ers

Chart 9. Employment in major occupational groups,
1968 (actual) and 1980 (projected for a services economy
with 3-percent unemployment)

.

M illion s o f w ork ers

Em ploym ent in this highly skilled group of occupa­
tions is expected to expand more slowly than total
employment, rising from 10 million in 1968 to
12.2 million in 1980. The craft share of total
employment will slide downward a little to 12.8
percent b y 1980.
Different industries employ different proportions
of craftsmen. Manufacturing employs a greater
number than any other industry. In construction,
however, these skilled workers are a much higher
proportion of employees than in any other in­
dustry group— 1 out of every 2, compared with 1
in 5 in manufacturing and transportation and
fewer than 1 in 10 in other industries.
S e m i s k i l l e d w o r k e r s . These occupations employ
more workers than any other group. Em ploym ent

in these occupations increased sharply as industry,
aided b y technological innovations, shifted to mass
production processes. B u t now that these processes
are well established, further and more sophisticated
technological advances are apt to slow employ­
ment growth in these occupations in the years
ahead. Em ploym ent is projected to rise from 14
million in 1968 to 15.4 million in 1980, at a rate
of increase that will be about half the increase
projected for total employm ent; the semiskilled
share of total employment will slide downward
from 18.4 percent in 1968 to 16.2 percent in 1980.
Three of every 5 semiskilled workers in 1968
were employed as factory operatives in manu­
facturing industries. Large numbers were assem­
blers or inspectors, and m any worked as operators
of material moving equipment such as powered
forklift trucks. Am ong the nonfactory operatives,
drivers of trucks, buses, and taxicabs by far made
up the largest group.
Em ploym ent trends among the individual semi­
skilled occupations since W orld W a r I I have
reflected different rates of growth in the industries

1968

I

I 1980

processes. Increases in production and growing
motor truck transportation of freight will be
major factors in expanding demands for operatives
in the 1968-80 period.

in which the workers were employed as well as the

N o n f a r m l a b o r e r s . Em ploym ent requirements
for these laborers are expected to continue at 3%

differing impacts of technological innovations on

million despite the rapid employment rise antici­

occupations. For example, the rapid decline in

pated in manufacturing

employment of spinners and weavers reflacted

primary employers of laborers. The nonfarm labor

not

only

the relatively

small increase in

and

construction,

the

the

share of total employment, however, will decline

demand for textile mill products but also the in­

from 4.7 percent to 3.7 percent between 1968 and

creased mechanization of spinning and weaving

1980.

25
384-657 Q— ‘70-

5




Increases in demand are expected to be offset
roughly by rising output per worker resulting

other farm products also will reduce employment

from

requirements for farm workers.

the continuing substitution of mechnical

equipment for manual labor. For example, powerdriven equipment such as forklift trucks, derricks,
cranes, hoists, and conveyor belts will take over

and sorting systems for fruits, vegetables, and
The continued

trend toward larger and more efficient farms will
also limit employment.
Farms

and

farm

managers

are

expected

to

more and more handling of materials in factories,

continue to be most affected by the decline in the

at freight terminals, and in warehouses. Other

number of small farms, and requirements for these

power-driven machines will do excavating, ditch

workers are expected to continue to decline faster
than that for farm laborers and foremen.

digging, and similar work. In addition, integrated
systems of processing and handling of materials
equipment

will

be

installed

in

an

increasing

Employment in a durables economy

number of plants.
Under the assumptions embodied in the dura­
S e r v ic e

w o rk ers

.

M ajor factors underlying in­

bles economy, those occupations that predomi­

creased needs for service workers will be a growing

nate

population, expanding business activity, increasing

different employment levels.

in

durable

goods

industries

would

show

Requirements for

leisure time, and higher levels of disposable per­

engineers, for example, would be 1 percent higher

sonal income.

in a

This occupational group,

a fast

growing one, encompasses a wide variety of jobs
and a wide range of skill requirements. I t in­
cludes such diverse jobs as F B I agents, policemen,
beauty operators, and janitors.

durables

economy;

tool

and

diemakers,

carpenters, and cement finishers would each be

2^
32

about
percent higher; manufacturing sales­
men would be nearly 3 Y i percent higher. On the
other hand, occupations that predominate in

Em ploym ent requirements will rise from 9.4

services industries, such as government; finance,

million in 1968 to 13.1 million in 1980, at a rate of

insurance, and real estate; and trade would show

increase that is more than half again as fast as

somewhat lower employment levels, securities and

the rate projected for total employment. Private

insurance salesmen, about 2 ^ percent less; and

household employment, the slowest growing serv­

waitresses, about 2 percent less.

ice area, will expand from 1.7 million to 2.0 million,
an increase of about 15 percent between 1968 and
1980. The fastest growing service area will be
health service, rising close to 90 percent, from
800,000 to 1.5 million between 1968 and 1980.

The economy in 1980

PROJECTED SHAPE
OF THE LABOR FORCE

w o r k e r s . These workers will decline onethird, from 3 y i million in 1968 to 2.6 million in
<
1980. The share of total employment also will fall,
from 4.6 percent to 2.7 percent in the same period.
Continuing earlier trends, decreasing require­
ments for farm workers will be related to rising
productivity on the farms. Improvements in farm

T h e L a b o r F o r c e is affected by changing labor
force participation rates by age groups. Past
trends provide clues for predicting how these
rates m ay change. Some past trends suggest that
the increase in college enrollments will tend to
reduce the labor force activity of the college-age

technology, better fertilizers, seeds, and feed will

groups as a whole even though m any students

F arm

permit farmers to increase production with fewer

continue to work part time. A s has been the case

employees. Improved mechanical harvesters for

in recent years, an expanding economy is likely to

vegetables and fruits will decrease the need for

provide an abundance of jobs that will tend to en­

seasonal or other hired labor. Innovations in live

courage students, other young people, and women

stock and poultry feeding and improved milking
systems will allow more efficient handling of a

to move into the labor force, often for part-

greater volume

of

development of

automatic packing,

26




productivity.

time jobs, in larger numbers than during the

expected

1960’s. Birth rates, which have been declining, are

inspection,

likely to continue to do so with the result that

The

Table 6. Labor force balance sheet, 1960-70, 1970-80

little— from 8.7 percent to 8.3 percent— -as the

Number in millions

1970’s advance to 1980, but even so their numbers
will continue to rise. In 1960, teenagers in the
labor force numbered about 5.2 million. Their

I960 DECADE (1960 -7 0)
72.1
20.9
51.2
2 6.4

Total labor force, 16 years and over, 1960______________________
Less withdrawals, 1960 through 1969______________________
1960 total labor force still in labor force in 1970_____________
Plus new entrants, I960 through 1969_____________________
Plus all other entrants, 1960 through 1969 1_______________
Total labor force, 16 years and over, 1970 2_ _ _ _ ________________

8
.0

8 5.6

1970 DECADE (1 970-80)
Total labor force, 16 years and over, 1970 2____________________
Less withdrawals, 1970 through 1979______________________
1970 total labor force still in labor force in 1980_____________
Plus new entrants, 1970 through 1979_____________________
Plus all other entrants, 1970 through 1979 1_______________
Total labor force, 16 years and over, 1980______________________

85.6
26.3
59.3
33.7
7 .7
100.7

average

rate

of

increase

through

the

1960’s

(1960-68) was about 3.9 percent per year, result­
ing in 7.1 million being in the labor force b y 1968;
by 1980, there will be 8.3 million. Their annual
average rate of increase through the 1970’s (1 9 6 8 80) will drop to 1.3 percent, about one-third of
the growth rate of the preceding decade.
The rate o f increase o f 2 0 - to 24-year-olds in the

1Primarily reentrants
2Estimated.

plus immigrants.

labor force will slow down. Young people, 20 to 24

years old, in the labor force will be increasing in
more women will enter the labor force. Finally,

numbers during the 1970’s but at a slower rate

the level and coverage of retirement benefits will

than during the preceding decade. In contrast with

allow more workers to leave the labor force at

the teenagers, the proportion these young adults

earlier ages.

constitute of the total labor force will continue
to rise from 13.4 percent (11 million) in 1968, to

Labor force changes

14.7

The labor force is constantly changing. Workers
enter and leave all the time. The expansion to 100
million by 1980 means that more workers will be
coming into the labor force pool (41 million) than
will be leaving (26 million). (See chart 10.)
Three kinds of workers will increase the supply

percent

(almost

15

million)

by

1980— a

reflection primarily of the increase in population.
Altogether, young people under the age of 25
will account for a little more than a quarter of
total labor force expansion of the 1970’s, in conChart 10. The shape of the labor force, 1968 (actual)
and 1980 (projected)

of labor by 41 million through the 1970’s:
All workers
(millions)

► 34 million new, young workers looking for
their first jobs,
► nearly 6 million women who either delayed

I

1 10

......—

—

...—

their entry into the labor force or picked up the
threads of work again after an absence, most
frequently devoted to caring for young children,
► over 1 million immigrants who will become
part of the U .S . work force.
Three kinds of workers will leave the labor force
during the 1970’s reducing the total by 26 million:
workers who die; workers who retire; and workers
who decide not to work any longer, although
sometimes only temporarily, for a variety of
personal reasons including illness and the need to
care for fam ily or because of other responsibilities.
(See table 6.)
The net effect of this inflow and outflow on the
age composition of the labor force through the
1970’s (1 9 6 8 -8 0 ) will be as follows:
The huge increase o f teenagers in the 1 9 6 0 ’s will
taper o f . The proportion of the labor force that is

composed

of teenagers will




actually decline

ages

a

2?

trast with over half (54 percent) of labor force

workers, unprecedented in numbers.

growth from 1960 to 1968.

The increasing number of 25 - to 34-year-olds
in the labor force in the 1970’s does not neces­

The number o f early career workers, 2 5 to 3 4 years
old, will increase precipitously. The big labor force

news of the 1970’s will be the significant increase
in the numbers of workers in their late twenties
and early thirties— the career development years,
from 16% million in 1968 to over 26 million in 1980,
an increase of almost 60 percent. One out of every
4 workers will be in this age group in 1980 in
comparison with 1 in every 5 in 1968. For the
most part, these workers will have completed
their education and training and will be reader to
assume full harness in the world of work. The
catalyst for the big expansion in young workers

sarily mean that 800,000 new jobs must be found
every year for those moving into this age bracket.
A great m any of these young workers came into
the labor force during the 1960’s and found jobs
then.

During

the

1970’s,

they simply will be

moving up the age ladder of the labor force. A s
they acquire additional training, experience, and
m aturity in the process of working their way up,
they m ay be able to compensate for the short
supply of older workers in the prime career age
group where recent labor force expansion has been
either slim or nonexistent.

is the great upsurge in the fertility rate that

The number o f midcareer workers, aged 3 5 to 44,

occurred following W orld W a r II. The annual
number of births increased from 2.7 million to

will show a small increase. Despite growth from 17

3.8

supply of these workers in the labor force still will

moved up to 4.2 million by the late 1950’s. Their

be relatively thin. Their proportion of the total

schooling for

these

labor force will decline from about 21 percent in

young people born in the early postwar years
young

1968 to about 19 percent b y 1980. Generally,
workers in this age group staff positions of maxi­

Chart 11. Major changes in the labor force, 1960’s
(estimated) and 1970's (projected)

m um work responsibility and are at the peak of
their performance. Their short supply will mean

1*1

provide

the

1946

most

a large

and

part

pool

of

1947

and

million to about 19 million from 1968 to 1980, the

then

will

million between

completed,
trained,

*

rre> '

•
’.}•/>

Millions of workers
Age group

-2

0

+2

4

6

m any more midcareer openings will be available
for the younger 2 5 - to 34-year-old workers.

8

14

16

A

sharp slowdown will occur in the labor force

growth rate among older workers, 4 5 to 64 years o f
age. These workers, who are normally at the top

of their career ladders, will increase in number
from 27% million in 1968 to just over 29 million in
1980. B u t the increase will be only one-third as
great as that between 1960 and 1968. Their
proportion+of the total labor force will decline
sharply from about 33 percent to about 29 percent.
This slowdown in the growth rate is related to a
sizable decline in population growth in the 4 5 -5 4
year old group, reflecting the comparatively small
number of people born in the depths of the Great
Depression when birth rates were low, who are
moving into this age class.
There will be no significant change fo r workers
beyond
1960's ( = □

1970's I

I

the usual retirement age o f 6 5

who will

number ju st over 3 m illion through the 1 9 7 0 ’s. T hey

will represent a declining proportion of the work
force. The decreased propensity to work after 65
reflects the improvement in retirement benefits
28




that reduces the need for older workers to stay

W omen

on the job to make ends m eet; the greater security

37 million expected in 1980— will continue to
represent an increasing proportion of the working

that comes with the health protection of medicare

in

the

labor

force

.

W om en workers—

and medicaid; and the increased assets that m ay

population. B y 1980, more than 4 in every 10

have resulted from full employment. (See chart 11.)

women (43 percent) will be working, only slightly
more than the proportion today (41.1 percent) but

Participation rates

double the proportion (2 in 10) in 1890.

W h a t makes people decide to work? W hatever
the incentive for working, 6 in every 10 in the

N e g r o e s in

working age group (16 and over) are expected to

million more than in 1968. Its annual rate of

be either working or seeking work in 1980, about

growth,

the same as today; in 1890 only 5 in every 10 in

growth rate for whites, 1.6 percent, b y one half.

the work-age population were workers. The longrun increase in labor force participation reflects

The difference reflects a more rapid increase in
the Negro population of working age than that

primarily

occurring among whites, particularly among those

the increasing proportion

of women

who work. (See chart 12.)

Chart 12.

the

labor

force

.

The Negro labor

force 4 is expected to total 12 million in 1980, 3
2.4

percent,

exceeds

the

comparable

under 35 years of age.

Labor force and population,1 1890 to 1980

M illions o f persons
2 00 ..............................................................................................

I

I P opulation

I

1 L abor fo r c e

m o P a*? ^
or 1 8 9 0 -1 9 4 0 refer to persons 14 years and over. Data for 1950 to
Sources: U.S. Department o f Com m erce, Bureau o f the Census; U.S. De1 ,n ,n er to Persons 16 Years and over- Com parable labor force data not available
partment o f Labor, Bureau o f Labor Statistics; John D. Durand, The Labor Force
tor 1910.
o f the United States, 1 8 9 0 -1 9 6 0 (New York, N .Y ., Gorden & Breach, 1 96 8);
Gertrude Bancroft, The Am erican Labor Force (New York, N.Y., John Wiley &
Sons, 1 95 8).




29

T he pattern of change between 1968 and 1980
for the Negro work force differs only in degree
from that of their white counterparts. Workers
under 25 years old will account for a large share of

adult workers in 1968— nearly 7 million— had
completed less than 8 years of schooling while
6 in every 10 adult workers— about 37 million—
had completed 4 years of high school or more.

the increase for both Negroes and whites but will

Nearly 1 in 6 workers, 25 years and over—

account for more of the increase among Negroes.

about 13 million— will have completed at least 4

For both groups, the m ost spectacular increase

years of college in 1980; in 1968, about 8.5 million,

will take place in the group 2 5 -3 4 years old, but

or 1 in 7 workers, 25 years and over, had a similar

for

amount of education. The total number of college-

Negroes. T he labor force 35 years old and over
will show only a small amount of growth for both

educated workers of all ages in the work force
would, of course, exceed 13 million, since a signif­

Negroes and whites.

icant number of workers under 25— perhaps as

again,

a

slightly

greater

relative

increase

force has always been higher for Negro than for

m any as 2 to 3 million— will have completed 4
years of college in 1980. M oreover, about 9.2

white women, an indication of the greater need for

million adult workers— 1 in 8— in 1980 will have

m any Negro women to contribute to family
income. The difference between these labor force

had some college training but less than 4 years.

participation rates has been getting smaller as paid

well-educated younger workers, which will occur

T he proportion of women who are in the labor

The heavy influx to the labor force of relatively

work outside the home has become more common

at the same time that m any less educated older

among white women.

workers are leaving the labor force, promises a

In

1968,

49

percent of
were

major change in the educational background of the

workers. B y 1980, it is expected that the difference

workers in the early age span. B y 1980, about 4

Negro

and 40

percent

of white

women

will be reduced further, reflecting an improvement

out of 5 young adult workers (25 to 34 years old)

in the economic situation of Negro men, which, in

will be high school graduates or better, and 1 in 5

turn, will mean that Negro women will be under

will have completed 4 years of college or m ore; by

less pressure to contribute toward the support of

contrast, in the 1968 work force, 3 in 4 workers in

their families. Thus, the rate of participation for

this age group were high school graduates and 1 in

all Negro women in 1980 was projected as 47

6 were college graduates.

percent and for white women at 42 percent.
Am ong Negro men, small increases are projected
in the labor force participation rates from 75.9
percent in 1968 to 77.5 percent in 1980, at the
same time that the rate for white males is edging
down. These increases reflect the anticipated
improvement in Negro m en’s employment oppor­
tunities, which will tend to minimize irregular
work patterns and reduce withdrawals from the
labor force that reflect discouragement over job
prospects.

Educational attainment
The

N ation’s

labor

force

will

have

higher

educational qualifications in 1980 then in 1968:
the proportion of workers with at least 4 years of

The economy in 1980

SOME IMPLICATIONS
OF THE PROJECTIONS
A ny

s e t of economic projections carries with it
certain implications for the future behavior of all

aspects of the economy, including government
policy. Three major aspects of the projections
warrant further consideration:
1.
2.

growth of the economy;
demographic changes in the labor force; and

3.

higher educational attainment of the labor

high school will be rising among workers at all ages.
B y 1980, only 1 in 16 adult workers (25 and over)—

force.

about 5 million— will have less than 8 years of

Growth of the economy

schooling;

and

7 in every 10 adult workers—

about 52 million— will have completed at least 4

W hen the depression years of the 1930’s were

years of high school. In contrast, over 1 in 10

still within recent memory, optimistic economic

30




projections inevitably raised a question about the
ability of the economy to reach the projected

for the continuation of the long-term trend in
productivity.

levels. The sustained high levels of growth during

F ed era l G overnm ent exp en d itu res f o r d efen se p u r ­

the 1960’s, however, have created confidence that

will fall as a proportion of total gnp . Other
and local and Federal
nondefense—will rise as a share of the gnp . This
implies a possible temporary dislocation of people
and jobs in defense industries, particularly if the
decline in defense expenditures occurs over a short
period of time. Some defense industries may suffer
loss of their Federal contracts with a companion
decline in output; some defense plants will either
shut down or curtail their activities; and some
regions and localities may experience, at least
temporarily, increasing levels of unemployment.

the expected levels indicated for the 1970’s m ay
be quite reasonable. The projected gnp level for
1980 will be 65 percent above the level in 1968, a
growth rate of 4.3 percent per year. Because of the
anticipated higher rate of labor force increase,
this is somewhat higher than the potential growth
rate of the 1960’s. However, the 4.3 percent rate
is somewhat lower than the rate actually achieved
during the 1960’s because advances in the early
part of the decade resulted from taking up the
slack in the economy.
The projections for certain sectors of the econ­
E x p e n d itu r e s

fo r

are

expected

to

n ew

or

renovated

of new family

about

p u b lic ex p en d itu res —State

Government programs to meet such dislocation
include placement services to workers seeking jobs

om y raise specific questions:
reflecting the needs

p o se s

double

by

h ou sin g ,

formation,
1980.

This

m ay make possible attainment of the goal of 26

outside their labor market area and special assist­
ance to enable defense plants hit b y cutbacks to
diversify production and seek other markets to
maintain production levels.

million housing units for the 1968-78 decade set

State a n d local governm ent exp en d itu res between

b y Congress in the Housing and Urban Develop­

1 986-80 will shift from about half to close to

m ent A ct of 1968. However, if this goal is to be

three-fifths

fulfilled,

advances will be necessary to

This shift will occur because of a large increase

assure an adequate supply of trained construction

in State and local expenditures and a relative

workers, to create sufficient sources of reasonably

decline in Federal purchases.

major

priced financing, and to put into practice the
technological improvements necessary to higher
output.

Strong demand for new and renovated housing
is evident enough, even today, but the current
limited availability of mortgage funds together
with a high level of interest rates has caused buyers
and builders to hesitate to take on long term
commitments. If these conditions continue, the
expected surge in residential construction activity
may be seriously delayed.

W hile

of

the

total

1980

government

projections

do

expenditures.

not

include

revenue estimates, it is clear that a major effort
will be necessary to obtain the funds to finance
this increase

in

State

and local expenditures.

Part of this expenditure increase will represent
funds channeled from the Federal Governm ent in
the form of grants-in-aid and sharing of Federal
revenues. A t the same time a considerable effort
by State and local governments will be necessary
to increase their own revenues. A further difficult
task will be to develop the programs and the
management skills in State and local government
to meet the complex problems that they will be
facing.

In the decade ahead, special emphasis will un­
doubtedly be placed on developing new methods
of training construction workers, expanding op­
portunities for minority applicants, and reducing
seasonality to make more effective use of skilled
craftsmen; and to institute new technology that

E x p e n d itu r e s f o r services by both consumers and
governments will account for a larger share of the
gnp in 1980 than today. It is likely that the trend

will permit houses to be built faster and cheaper
with the manpower available.

these services m ay contribute to the goal of eco­

B u s in e s s in vestm en t in p la n t an d equ ip m en t is
projected to at least maintain the high proportion
of gnp attained during the last few years of rela­
tively full employment, thus providing a basis




toward higher manpower requirements to provide
nomic stability since service employment is
normally less subject to layoffs at the onset of
declines in economic activity.
P r o d u c tiv ity , holding

steady at 3.0 percent a
31

year in the private nonfarm sector and remaining
at high levels on the farm (5.7 percent a year),
will yield an advance in output per man-hour of
3 percent a year for the entire economy through
the 1970’s. However, as the service sector expands
in importance, it m ay become increasingly diffi­
cult to maintain the high level of productivity

that come with age and experience. The differing
viewpoints of young and old may bring forth
more grievances, more altercations with manaj ement.
Likely implications of these changes on specifi
demographic groups in the population are as
follows:

gains for the economy that have prevailed since
W orld W a r II. The service industries are unlikely

T eenagers . The slowdown in their rate of growth

to experience large increases in output per worker,

in the labor force may improve job opportunities
for teenagers competing in an anticipated expand­
ing economy.

because they are less subject to mechanization,
and m any of them depend for their value upon
personal or individual attention. Thus, particular
attention will be required to find means of applying
cost-saving techniques to the service industries if
the N ation’s productivity is not to fall below the
3-percent level.
H o u r s o j w ork are expected to decline slightly

during the 1970’s at a rate of 0.1 percent a year.
This relatively small decline reflects in large part
the continuing increase in part-tim e employment
and to a lesser degree limited reductions in the
scheduled workweek. In addition to this decline,
which is based on hours for which paym ent is
received, greater availability of leisure time can
be expected as a result of longer paid vacations
and an increasing number of paid holidays.

Demographic changes in the labor force
The 100 million labor force of 1980 will exhibit
a distinctly different age profile. The rapid growth
during the 1960’s of teenagers and persons in
their early twenties will inexorably be transferred
in the coming decade to those in their late twenties
and early thirties. In contrast, the 4 5 -6 4 age
group b y 1980 will be barely 5 percent higher than
a decade earlier.
For the N ation as a whole, the younger work
force, averaging 35 years of age, m ay be a great
boon. The large numbers of young workers m ay
provide an abundance of new ideas— the eager­
ness, imagination, and flexibility of the young
m ay contribute to developing new ways of
business organization, production, and marketing.
Differences in the points of view, however, that
today seem often to characterize those under and
over 30 m ay, of course, bring some frictions and
other problems. Industry’s work force m ay suffer
from workers who lack the patience and wisdom
32




Y oung w orkers . Projected changes may mean
keen competition among workers in their twenties
for entry-level jobs but better opportunities for
advancement to higher levels where the number
of competent older workers may be stretched thin.
E xperienced midcareer w orkers . The big in­

crease in the number of young trained workers
may mean that the mature worker may be pushed
hard to hold his own against the young, many of
whom will probably be better educated and
trained for tomorrow’s jobs.
O lder w orkers . The improved supply of young

workers may accelerate pressures on older workers
to retire sooner than they might otherwise do.
In any case, the trend toward earlier retirement
is expected to continue and can be expected to
lead to greater emphasis on preretirement planning
and the development of community service
projects for which retired workers could contribute
paid or volunteer part-time work.
W omen w orkers . The continuing increase in the
labor force participation rates of women, partic­
ularly young women in their childbearing years,
may mean that more day care centers for children
must be provided to assure proper protection of
the young children of working mothers; more
part-time job opportunities must be made avail­
able for women whose home responsibilities do
not permit full-time employment; some job
requirements may need to be adjusted to meet
women’s physical characteristics.
As an increasing proportion of married women
work, the added family income may serve to
change patterns of consumption and living styles,
more services may be purchased to replace the

housewife’s home services; more precooked foods

in 1980 will depend upon a continuing improve­

m ay be demanded; more expenditures for leisure

ment in education, the relative success of efforts
to

time recreational activities m ay be made.

open

hitherto

N egro w orkers . The

one-third

increase

ex­

employment
remained

opportunities

closed,

and

that

the

have

impact

of

changing occupational patterns. The bls expects

pected in the Negro labor force between 1 968-80,

to issue a more detailed study of Negro employ­

bringing their total numbers to 12 million workers
in 1980, m ay be accompanied b y increased con­

ment progress and outlook later in the year.
These demographic changes are likely also to af­

cern for their occupational upgrading during the

fect the country’s major job-oriented institutions.

1970’s. Since upward

occupational mobility

is

conditioned, in part, upon improved job qualifi­
cations, the recent steady progress in the educa­

new young workers and women in the labor force

E mployers . The large increase in the number of

tional qualifications of Negroes brings promise of

will produce pressure for employers to provide

better occupational adjustments to come. The

improved on-the-job training, more effective super­

proportion of Negro men 2 5 -2 9 with 4 years of

vision, and additional safety education. T hey will

high school or more rose from 36 percent in 1960

have to expect greater turnover and will have to

to 60 percent in 1969 while the comparable increase

allow for more part-time workers.

for white males during the same period was from
63 percent to 78 percent. Negro females have made
similar, but not so striking gains. A m ajor increase
in

Negroes

attending

college

also

took

place

during the decade.
These higher levels of educational attainment,
together with steady progress toward equal em­
ployment opportunities, have combined to produce
major changes in the occupational progress of
employed Negroes. From
employment

in the

1960 to

professional

1969

and

Negro

U nions . In a strong economy, their membership
swelled b y youthful members, unions m ay lean
more toward emphasizing take-home pay rather
than job security, seniority, pensions, and other
fringe benefits that are usually of greater interest
to older workers. Divergent bargaining objectives
between young and older workers m ay lead to
intraunion problems.

technical

occupations has more than doubled— from less

S chools . The large number of young people enter­

than 350,000 to nearly 700,000 while white em­

ing the labor force directly from high school and

ployment in these occupations increased 40 percent

vocational school will require improved prepara­

from 7 million to 10 million. Similar improvements
have been made in the managerial, clerical, and
sales occupations.

In

the manual occupations,

tion for obtaining the skills and work attitudes
needed for success in the work world. Y oung
workers will need better guidance and counseling

there has been a sharp upgrading of Negro workers

as they enter the labor force. Y oung people who

with a 70-percent increase in Negro craftsmen
compared with a 17-percent increase for whites.
A t the same time, there has been a drop in Negro

do not complete high school m ay find it harder to
get a job as they compete with their peers who
have had more schooling.

nonfarm laborers, private household workers, and
farm workers.

C hanges in the labor market . T he projections

Despite these encouraging gains, Negroes are
still disproportionately concentrated in occupa­
tions such as nonfarm laborers that are expected

assume that the 100 million labor force will mesh
with the job requirements of the $1.4 trillion
economy. This close match between workers and

to continue to decline throughout the 1970’s or in

jobs will not just happen. It will require greater

occupations such as household workers, which

flexibility in the labor market through education,

will be increasing only slightly. Moreover, Negro

realistic training programs geared

workers in 1969 represented only 6 percent of total

occupational requirements, improved placement

employment in professional occupations, 4 percent

services, removal of arbitrary barriers to occupa­

in sales and 3 percent in managerial occupations.

The prospects for improved Negro employment




to shifts in

tional entry, and the willingness of employers to
maintain flexible hiring requirements.
33

Educational attainment of the labor force
The continuing rise in educational achievement
of the labor force has a number of specific implica­
tions for the 1980 labor market.

J

ob

en try

r e q u ir e m e n t s

.

Faced b y a rising

supply of more highly educated applicants, some
employers m ay prefer more highly educated job
applicants and be reluctant to adjust their educa­

be college material will no longer insist on having
a “ go” at college nor resist taking useful manual
and service employment.
2. Adjustments in labor supply through removal
of any remaining racial barriers to job entry and
modified immigration policies.
3. Adjustments in pay and working conditions to
make such jobs more attractive.
4. Programs to provide greater advancement op­
portunities for those who enter the manual occupa­
tions at the lower level of the job structure.

tional entry requirements to levels that are con­
sistent with job requirements. Similarly, while
job opportunities m ay open up more readily for
disadvantaged workers who improve their edu­
cational qualifications, the job outlook for the
disadvantaged with limited schooling is likely to
remain bleak. These possibilities underscore the

H ig h l y

educated

m an po w er

.

The N ation ’s col­

leges and universities— principal suppliers of our
most highly trained manpower— now are turning
out record numbers of graduates and are expected
to continue to do so throughout the 1970’s. N u m ­
bers of persons earning bachelor’s degrees will

importance during the coming decade of en­
couraging employers to make their educational

climb b y two-thirds, and those earning master’s

entry requirements reflect actual job needs rather

cally,

than simply the availability of a more educated

awarded between

and doctor’s degrees will double by 1980. N um eri­
13.3

million

degrees
1968

and

are expected to be
1980— 10.2

million

bachelor’s, 2.7 million master’s, and 400,000 doc­

labor supply.

torates.
W h it e - c o l l a r

o c c u p a t io n s

.

By

1980,

more

Using past employment and educational pat­

workers will be in white-collar jobs than in the

terns

blue-collar

The

between 1968 and 1980 about 9.3 million college-

impression m ay grow that white-collar jobs are

educated persons will enter the civilian labor force

and

service

groups

combined.

only for highly educated workers. Jobs within the
white-collar group actually have a wide range of
educational requirements: managerial jobs range
from the managers of large corporations to
managers of hamburger carryout shops; clerical
jobs cover executive secretaries and file clerks;
and sales occupations include
peddlers as well as stock brokers.

hucksters

estimates

bls

The continuing emphasis

on higher education poses a threat to the flow of

Millions of
workers

1
2
1
0

Other

1 1
.2

Replacement
4.3

New
college
graduates
Growth

9.3

6
.1

energetic intelligent manpower to the skilled
crafts. This emphasis, together with the generally
higher esteem in which white-collar occupations
are held, m ay make it difficult to fill blue-collar
and service jobs. W hether or not this materializes

Job openings

Entrants

would seem to depend on the possibility o f :

1. A shift in attitudes toward higher education,
at least to the extent that youngsters who may not
34




that

Chart 13. Projected job openings for college graduates
and projected entrants, 1968-80

and

Since m any white-collar jobs do not require
even a high school diploma, special means may
be needed to keep young people whose education
is limited informed of the variety of job openings
in this area.
M a n u a l o c c u p a t io n s .

of degree recipients,

1 Includes reentrants, delayed entrants, and immigrants.

after receiving their degrees: 8.4 million at the
bachelor’s level, 900,000 at the master’s, and ap­

Table 7. Distribution of college graduates by major occu­
pational field, 1968 and 1980

proximately 18,000 at the doctorate level. Pre­

1980

1968

sumably, most persons who will receive degrees
during this period

and who

Total
employ­
ment 1
(thou­
sands)

Occupational group

enter the Armed

Forces will have returned to the civilian labor
force b y 1980. Therefore, the effect of the conflict
in V iet N a m on labor force entry of college gradu­

All occupational
groups___________

This supply of new graduates will be augmented
training who will come into the labor force be­
tween 1968 and 1980. These additions are ex­
pected to consist primarily of women who delayed

Total
Percent,
gradu­ employ­
ment •
ates
to
(thou­
total
sands)

College
gradu­
ates 2
(thou­
sands)

Percent,
gradu­
ates
to
total

75,920

9,229

12.3

95,100

15,342

16.1

Professional and technical.. 10,325
Managers, officials, and
7,776
proprietors_____ _______
4,647
Sales_____________________
Clerical___________________ 12,803
All other__________________ 40,369

6,182

59.9

15,500

10,230

6 6.0

1,562
463
583
439

2 0.0
10.1
4 .6
1.1

9,500
6,000
17,300
46, 800

2,850
780
779
703

30.0
13.0
4 .5
1 .5

ates was assumed to be limited.
b y another 1.2 million persons with college level

College
grad­
uates 2
(thou­
sands)

1 16 years of age and ovar.
Data include persons 18 years of age and over having 4 years of college or more.

2

seeking a job but are expected to become available
for work in the 19 6 8 -8 0 period, or who were work­

An increased supply of graduates offers only the

ing in earlier years but withdrew from the labor

hope that students will elect to enter courses in

force. Thus, the new supply of college-educated

numbers that match job vacancies b y discipline.

manpower expected to enter the labor force from
1 9 6 8 -8 0 will total 10.5 million.

will be made, bls has made projections to 1980

The need for workers stems generally from two
sources: employment growth in occupations and
the need to replace workers who die, retire, or
otherwise leave the labor force. B ut another factor
is relevant in considering the need for college
educated manpower: rising job entry requirements
that make a college degree necessary for jobs once
performed by workers with lower educational
attainment.
Assessing these three factors— growth, replace­

In an effort to predict how these individual choices
for some of the principal occupations in the pro­
fessional,

technical,

and

kindred

group. (See table 7.)
Specific demand-supply
potential sharp differences
Elementary

and

secondary

occupational

assessments

indicate

among occupations.
school

teaching

is

expected to experience the most dramatic change
in supply-demand conditions.

Long a shortage

occupation, teaching is about to undergo a sharp
change in

prospects:

the

aggregate,

supply

is

ment, and rising entry requirements— it is esti­

expected to significantly exceed demand if recent

mated that 10.4 million new college graduates will
be needed between 1968 and 1980: (1) 6.1 million

entry patterns in the occupation continue. The
anticipated surplus of applicants trained for ele­

to take care of occupational growth and rising

mentary and secondary teaching assignments, the

entry requirements, and (2) 4.3 million to replace
other workers. (See chart 13.)

biggest single professional opportunity for women,

Thus, an ample supply of graduates that is
roughly in balance with manpower requirements
seems in the offing for the 12-year period between
1968 and 1980. The large output of highly educated
workers is expected to end m any long-time occu­
pational shortages and promises help for other
occupations in which shortages m ay persist because
of requirements for highly specialized graduate
level training, lack of facilities, or comparatively
low salaries. M a n y professional occupations have
suffered from chronic worker shortages for m any
years, particularly teaching, engineering, physics,
oceanography, chemistry, geophysics, and bio­
medical and health occupations.




m ay mean that m any college-educated women
will have to look to other professions, some long
regarded as the principal province of men, such
as engineering, law, medicine, dentistry, pharmacy.
If employers in these fields accept women readily,
this acceptance m ay help to reduce further some
of the discrimination against women in professional
schools that has prevailed in the past.
Professional health occupations should continue
to experience shortages. The supply of physicians
and
short

dentists,

for example, is expected

of requirements

because

of

the

to fall
limited

capacity of medical and dental schools currently
in operation and scheduled to be in operation by
1980.
35

Engineers are also expected to continue to be

the

planning

and

administration

of

local

in short supply. If the number of engineering
graduates were to keep pace with the expected
growth in total college graduates, the new supply

governments.

would be adequate to meet projected requirements.

inspired no doubt b y the steady performance of

These 1980 projections do have a rosy glow,

this

economic growth during the 1960’s. B u t the past

development as bachelor’s degrees in engineering
continue to become a smaller proportion of total

decade has, in fact, left the stage to somewhat

Recent

trends,

however,

do

not

suggest

mixed notices. W hile economic growth performed

bachelor’s degrees awarded.
In scientific fields, shortages of chemists,
geologists, and geophysicists seem likely, but

beyond

surpluses of mathematicians and life scientists

employment and price stability and solving such

m ay result if students continue to elect these fields

social problems as urban congestion, the lack of
equal opportunity, rising crime, the disaffection

in the same proportion as in the past. However,
since transfers occur quite frequently among
these

occupations,

part of the supply-demand

expectations,

not

all

aspects

of

the

economy reached the same heights. The current
difficulties of meshing the twin objectives of high

of the young, and environmental pollution are
enough to cast doubt on any optimistic view of

imbalances m ay be remedied b y such transfers.

the future. The challenge to the Nation during

Other areas for which potential shortages are

the 1970’s will be to solve these pressing problems

in prospect include counseling, social work, urban

before they seriously erode the economy’s capacity

planning, and a variety of occupations related to

to realize its growth potential.

□

■FO O T N O T E S-

1 Two measures of hours are available: hours worked
and hours paid for. Hours worked is a measure of hours
on the job; hours paid for are hours on the job plus the
additional hours which employees spent on paid leave
such as vacations, sick leave, or holidays. Since hours
worked data are not available in sufficient detail by
Industry, the discussion of hours in this section represents
hours paid for.
2 This technique is in accordance with the income
accounting conventions of the Office of Business Economics

of the U.S. Department of Commerce.
3 This balance results, of course, from the assumptions
underlying these projections, which were that the growth
in employment would match that of the labor force,
leaving only a level of unemployment (at either 3 or 4
percent) roughly similar to that in 1968.
4 D ata refer to all races except white. Nationwide,
Negroes make up about 92 percent of races other than
white.

How projections are used
The final detailed projections of industry and
occupational employment to 1980 m ay be useful
for a variety of planning and policy development
purposes:
State

facilities

and

c ity

need

'planners

the

best

of higher education
possible estimates of

requirements for professionally trained workers
in various disciplines to pinpoint educational
activities that should be expanded.

M a n p o w e r a n d educational p la n n ers need man­
power projections to develop realistic training
programs. In several recent statutes, Congress has
required that federally financed education and
training programs be set up to meet specific
local and regional manpower requirements.
V oca tio n a l coun selors use projections to provide

information that can be made available to young
people, their parents, teachers, or counselors on
long-range employment trends by occupational

V oca tio n a l educators need projections of employ­
ment in certain occupations to set up high school

and post secondary training programs or to pro­

field to help them make sound vocational choices.
I n d u s tr y a n d governm ent rely on projections in
policy planning for recruitment, salary scales,

mote apprenticeship training to provide trained

training,

workers in these occupations.

research programs.




scholarship

plans,

and

expansion

of

A ppendix tables
Page

Labor Force:
A -l.

Total population b y age, color, and sex July 1, 1960, 1968, and pro­

A -2 .

T otal labor force b y sex and age, annual averages 1960, 1968, and pro­
jected 1980________________________________________________________________
T otal labor force by color, sex, and age, 1960, 1968, and projected

40

A -3 .

1980_____________________________________________________________________
Labor force participation rates by color, sex, and age, 1960, 1968, and

41

A -4 .

projected 1980____________________________________________________________

41

A -5 .

Educational attainment of the civilian labor force, 25 years old and

jected 1980________________________________________________________________

over, b y color, average 1 967-69 and projected 1980_________________

39

42

Gross National Product:
A -6 .

Factors determining gross national product 1957, 1965, 1968, and
projected 1980____________________________________________________________

42

A -7 .

Part-tim e employm ent as a percent of total employment, 1 9 5 6 -6 8 ___

43

A -8 .

Personal consumption expenditures b y major type of goods and serv­

A -9 .

State and local government purchases of goods and services b y func­

ices, 1957, 1965, 1968 and projected 1980_____________________________
tion, selected years and projected 1980________________________________
A -1 0 .

Alternative gross national product annual rate of change, 1 9 6 5 -8 0 ._

43
44
44

Output and Output Per M an-hour:
A -ll.

Dom estic output be detailed industries, selected periods and pro­

A -1 2 .

Ten selected industries projected to grow rapidly in real output,

A -1 3 .

Ten selected industries projected to grow slowly in real output,

A -1 4 .

Industries with significant changes in projected output growth rates

A - l 5.

Rates of change in output per man-hour b y detailed industry pro­

jected 1 9 6 5 -8 0 __________________________________________________________
1 9 6 5 -8 0 __________________________________________________________________
1 9 6 5 -8 0 __________________________________________________________________
for the period 1 9 6 5 -8 0 in relation to 1 9 5 7 -6 5 _______________________
jected for the period 1 9 6 5 -8 0 _____________

45
47
47
48
48

Em ploym ent Industries:
A -1 6 .

Total civilian employment by major industry group, 1960, 1965,

A - l 8.

1968, and projected 1980______________________________________________
Total civilian employment b y major industry group, average annual
rates of change, 1 965-80 and 1 9 6 8 -8 0 ________________________________
Total civilian employment by detailed industries, 1960, 1965, 1968,

A -1 9 .

Total civilian employment by detailed industries, average annual

A -2 0 .

W age and salary employment by major industry group 1960, 1965,

A -1 7 .

and projected 1980_____________________________________________________
rates of change 1 9 6 5 -8 0 and 1 9 6 8 -8 0 _________________________________




1968, and projected 1980______________________________________________

49
49
50
51
52

3tf

Appendix tables— Continued
Em ploym ent Industries— Continued
Page

A -2 1 .

W age and salary employment by major industry group, average

A -2 2 .

W age and salary employment b y detailed industry, 1965, 1968, and

A -2 3 .

Comparison of B L S employment data with total labor force, 1960,
1968, and projected 1980____________________________________________ _

annual rates of change, 1 9 6 5 -8 0 and 1 9 6 8 -8 0 _______________________
projected 1980__________________________________________________________

53
53
57

E m p loym en t: Occupations:
A -2 4 .

Em ploym ent b y m ajor occupational group, 1968, and projected 1980
requirements____________________________________________________________

A -2 5 .

Em ploym ent and average annual openings in selected occupations,
1960, and projected 1980 requirements__________________ ___________ _

58

A -2 6 .

Occupations that are expected to grow rapidly during the 1970’s____

59

A -2 7 .

Occupations that are expected to grow slowly during the 1970’s ____

59

38




57

Table A - l .

Total population by age, color, and sex, J u ly 1, 1960, 1968, and projected 1980
Total
Sex and age

White

Negro and other races

1960

1968

1980i

1960

1968

19801

1960

1968

Population, all ages_________ ____ ______________________

180,684

201,166

235,212

160,033

176,663

204,244

20,651

24, 503

30,967

BOTH SEXES
16 years and over____________________________________________
16 to 19 years____________ ________ ______________________
20 to 24 years______ _______ ______ __________ ____________
25 to 34 years._____ _______ _________ _____ ______________
35 to 44 years___ _________ _____ ________________________
45 to 54 y e a rs ...____ _______________________ ______ _____
55 to 64 years___ ______________ ______________________ _
65 years and over________ ________________________ ____

121,817
10,673
11,100
22,952
24, 226
20, 586
15,634
16,645

137,659
14, 361
15, 788
23, 966
23,648
22, 888
17,879
19,129

166, 554
16,940
20,997
36,997
25,376
22,147
21,032
23, 063

109, 279
9,393
9,747
20, 264
21,692
18, 570
14,231
15,382

122,889
12,418
13,875
21,125
20, 984
20,613
16, 250
17,623

146,919
14,301
18, 014
32, 214
22,431
19,711
19,056
21,195

12, 538
1,280
1,353
2,688
2, 534
2, 016
1,403
1,264

14,770
1,943
1,913
2,840
2,665
2, 274
1,631
1,507

19,635
2,638
2,983
4, 783
2, 946
2,437
1,976
1,869

MALE
16 years and over_________________ _______ ____ ______________
16 to 19 years........................................................................ .
20 to 24 years__________ ________ _____________________ ..
25 to 34 years__________ ________ ________________________
35 to 44 "years_________ ___________ ____ _________
45 to 54 years_____ _______ _______ ______________ ______
55 to 64 "years......... ................................ .............................................
65 years and over______________ ________________________ _

59,420
5,398
5, 553
11,347
11,878
10,148
7,564
7,530

66, 538
7, 299
7,976
11,915
11,588
11,073
8,492
8,194

80,332
8,626
10, 596
18, 557
12, 576
10,726
9, 745
9, 507

53,408
4, 763
4, 905
10,092
10,675
9,166
6,874
6,933

59, 527
6,328
7, 028
10, 564
10, 361
10, 008
7,719
7, 518

70, 997
7,300
9,117
16, 209
11,179
9,624
8,855
8,713

6, Oil
635
648
1,255
1,203
982
690
598

7, 010
971
948
1,351
1,227
1,065
773
676

9,336
1,325
1,479
2,348
1,397
1,102
890
794

FEMALE
16 years and over..____ ___________ ______ ____________________
16 to 19 y e a rs ...______ _________ ______ __________________
20 to 24 years_____ _____ _______ ______ ________ _________
25 to 34 years________ ___________________________________
35 to 44 years___ ______ _____ ___________________________
45 to 54 years_________ ________ _________________________
55 to 64 years____________ _______ _______________________
65 years and over................................................................................

62, 397
5,275
5, 547
11,605
12,348
10,438
8, 070
9,115

71,121
7,061
7,811
12, 050
12, 060
11,814
9,389
10,936

86, 222
8,314
10,401
18,440
12,801
11,422
11,287
13,557

55,871
4, 630
4,842
10,172
11,017
9,404
7,357
8,449

63,362
6, 090
6,847
10, 561
10,623
10,605
8,531
10,105

75,922
7,001
8, 897
16, 005
11,252
10,027
10,201
12,482

6,527
645
705
1,433
1,331
1,034
713
666

7,760
972
965
1,489
1,438
1,209
858
831

10,299
1,313
1,504
2,435
1,549
1,335
1,086
1,075

i Series C population projection.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.




1980 i

Series P-25: for 1960, no. 241; for 1968, no. 416; for 1980, no. 381 Series C projection.

39

Table A -2 .

Total labor force, b y sex and age, annual averages, 1960, 1968, and projected 1980

[Numbers in thousands]
Change, 1960 to 1968
Sex and age

19601

1968

Total

Projected
1980

Change, 1968 to 1980

Annual average

Number

Percent
distribu­
tion

Number

Rate 2

Total

Annual average

Number

Percent
distribu­
tion

Number

Rate 2

BOTH SEXES
16 years and over________________________
16 to 24 years_______________________

72,104
12,720

82,272
18,183

100,727
23,130

10,168
5,463

100.0
53.7

1,271
683

1.6
4.5

18,455
4,947

100.0
26.8

1,538
412

1.7
2.0

16 to 19_____________________ _
20 to 24________________________

5,223
7,497

7,144
11,039

8,344
14,786

1,921
3, 542

18.9
34.8

240
443

3.9
4.8

1,200
3,747

6.5
20.3

100
312

1.3
2.4

25 to 34____ _______________________
35 to 44____________________________
45 to 6 4 .____ ______________________

15,099
16,779
24,12(7

16,480
16,990
27,464

26,242
18,794
29,293

1,381
211
3,337

13.6
2.1
32.8

173
26
417

1.1
0.2
1.6

9,762
1,804
1,829

52.9
9.8
9.9

814
150
152

3.9
0.8
0.5

46 to 54_______________ ____ ________
55 to 64____________________________
65 years and over____________________

14,718
9,409
3,379

16,496
10,968
3,154

16,341
12,952
3,268

1,778
1,559
-2 2 5

17.5
15.3
- 2 .2

222
195
-2 8

1.4
1.9
-0 .9

-1 5 5
1,984
114

-.8
10.8
.6

-1 3
165
10

MALE
16 years and over...... ..........................................
16 to 24 years.............................................

48,933
8,101

53, 030
10,984

63,612
13,690

4,097
2,883

40.3
28.4

512
360

1.0
3.8

10, 582
2,706

57.3
14.7

882
226

1.5
1.8

16 to 19................................................
20 to 24___________ ________ ____

3,162
4,939

4,196
6,788

4,895
8,795

1,034
1,849

10.2
18.2

129
231

3.5
4.0

699
2,007

3.8
10.9

58
167

1.3
2.2

25 to 34____________________________
35 to 44____________________________
45 to 54----------------------------------- ----------55 to 64 years...............................................
65 years and over____________________

10,940
11,454
9, 568
6,445
2,425

11,376
11,122
10,364
7,030
2,154

17,815
12, 086
10, 082
7,849
2,090

436
-3 3 2
796
585
-271

4.3
- 3 .3
7.8
5.8
-2 .7

55
-4 2
100
73
-3 4

0.5
-0 .4
1.0
1.1
- 1 .5

6,439
964
-2 8 2
819
-6 4

34.9
5.2
- 1 .5
4.4
-.3

537
80
-2 4
68
-5

3.7
0.7
- 0 .2
0.9
- 0 .3

23,171
4,619

29,242
7,198

37,115
9,440

6,071
2,580

59.7
25.4

759
322

2.9
5.5

7,873
2,241

42.7
12.1

656
187

2.0
2.3

16 to 19______________ ______ _
20 to 24________________________

2,061
2,558

2,948
4,251

3,449
5,991

887
1,693

8.7
16.7

111
212

4.5
6.3

501
1,740

2.7
9.4

42
145

1.3
2.9

25 to 3 4 . . . ________ _________________
35 to 44____________________________
45 to 54______________ __________ _
55 to 64......... ............................................
65 years and over____ ________ _______

4,159
5,325
5,150
2,964
954

5,104
5,869
6,132
3,938
999

8,427
6,708
6,259
5,103
1,178

945
544
982
974
45

9.3
5.4
9.7
9.6
.4

118
68
123
122
6

2.6
1.2
2.2
3.6
0.6

3,323
839
127
1,165
179

18.0
4.5
.7
6.3
1.0

277
70
11
97
15

4.2
1.1
0.2
2.2
1.4

-0 .1

1.4
0.3

FEMALE
16 years and over________________ ______ _
16 to 24 years_______________ _____ _

1 Based on revised population and therefore differ from published figures for 1960.

40




2

Compounded continuously.

Table A -3 .

Total labor force by color, sex, and age, 1960, 1968, and projected 1980

[In thousands]
Negro and other races

White
Sex and age

1960

1960

1980

1968

1980

1968

BOTH SEXES
16 years and over_______________ ____ ____________________
16-19 years._____ _______________________________
20-24 years________________________________ _____
25-34 years______________________________________
35-44 y e a rs ...______ ____________________________
45-64 years______________________________________
65 years and over_________________________________

64,210
4,654
6, 585
13,228
14, 883
21,747
3,113

73,166
6,319
9,684
14,419
15, 039
24, 821
2, 883

88,634
7,128
12,709
22, 850
16,637
26, 321
2,989

7,894
569
912
1,871
1,896
2, 380
266

9,106
825
1,355
2,060
1,951
2, 644
270

12, 093
1,216
2, 077
3,392
2,157
2,972
279

44,119
2, 801
4,370
9,777
10, 346
14, 582
2, 243

47,708
3,707
5,993
10,150
10,015
15, 862
1,980

56,374
4,193
7, 599
15,646
10,791
16, 230
1,915

4,814
361
569
1,163
1,108
1,431
182

5,322
489
795
1,225
1,106
1,532
174

7,238
702
1,196
2,169
1,295
1,701
175

20, 091
1,853
2,215
3,451
4, 537
7,165
870

25,457
2,612
3,691
4, 269
5,024
8,959
903

32, 260
2, 935
5,110
7,204
5,846
10, 091
1,074

3, 080
208
343
708
788
949
84

3,784
336
560
835
845
1,112
96

4,855
514
881
1,223
862
1,271
104

MALE
16 years and over_____ ______ ____________________________
16-19 y e a rs ..._____ ____ ________________________
20-24 years______________________________________
25-34 years____________ _____ _______ ________ ___
35-44 years___________ _____ _______________ .
45-64 years___________ _______ ____________ ______
65 years and over______________________________ ..
FEMALE
16 years and over________________________________________
16-19 years........................................... .............................
20-24 years................... ................. ....................................
25-34 years____ ____________________ _________ _
35-44 years............................ ...........................................
45-64 years_______________________ ______________
65 years and over..................................................................

Table A -4 .

Labor force participation rates,1 by color, sex, and age, 1960, 1968, and projected 1980
White

Total
Sex and age

Total 16 years and over.......................................................... .......

1960

1968

1980

1960

1968

Negro and other races
1980

1960

1968

1980

59.2

59.8

60.5

58.8

59.5

60.3

63.0

61.7

61.6

82.4
58.6
88.9
96.4
96.4
94.3
85.2
32.2

79.7
57.5
85.1
95.5
96.0
93.6
82.8
26.3

79.2
56.7
83.0
96.0
96.1
94.0
80.5
22.0

82.6
58.8
89.1
96.9
96.9
94.8
85.7
32.4

80.1
58.6
85.3
96.1
96.7
94.2
83.3
26.3

79.4
57.4
83.3
96.5
96.5
94.3
80.8
22.0

80.1
56.8
87.8
92.7
92.1
89.4
80.1
30.4

75.9
50.4
83.9
90.7
90.1
87.7
77.4
25.7

77.5
53.0
80.9
92.4
92.7
91.1
78.3
22.0

37.1
39.1
46.1
35.8
43.1
49.3
36.7
10.5

41.1
41.7
54.4
42.4
48.7
51.9
41.9
9.1

43.0
41.5
57.6
45.7
52.4
54.8
45.2
8.7

36.0
40.0
45.7
33.9
41.2
48.2
35.8
10.3

40.2
42.9
53.9
40.4
47.3
51.1
41.5
8.9

42.5
41.9
57.4
45.0
52.0
54.5
45.0
8.6

47.2
32.2
48.7
49.4
59.2
59.8
46.4
12.6

48.8
34.6
58.0
56.1
58.8
59.1
46.3
11.6

47.1
39.1
58.6
50.2
55.6
57.2
46.8
9.7

MALE
16 years and over......................................................................................
16 to 19 y e a rs ...................................................................................
20 to 24 years______________________ ____________ _______ _
25 to 34 years__________ _______ _____________ ____________
35 to 44 years....... ......... ....................... ..............................................
45 to 54 years..................................................... ..................................
55 to 64 years............... .......................................................... ......... .
65 years and o v e r..________ __________ ____ _________ ____
FEMALE
16 years and over................................. .............................. ........................
16 to 19 years.......................................... ..............................................
20 to 24 years___________ ____________ ___________________
25 to 34 years.................................................................................. .
35 to 44 years___________ ____ ____ ____ __________________
45 to 54 years___________ ____________ ___________________
55 to 64 years_________ _____ ____ ______ _________________
65 years and o v e r..._________________ ____ _______________
1 total labor force as percent of total population.




41

Table A -5 . Educational attainment of the civilian labor force 25 years old and over b y color, average 1967-69, and
projected 1980
White

Total
Years of school completed

1967-69
average

1980

Negro and other races
1980

1967-69
average

1967-69
average

1980

Number (thousands of persons 25 years old and over)
Total.____ _______________________________________________________________
Less than 4 years of high school...............................................................................................—
Elementary: less than 8 years___________ ______ ___________ ______ ___________
8 years........ ........... ............................................- ...............................- ...........
High school: 1 to 3 years_____________________________________________________

63,618
24,723
6, 551
6,967
11,205

76,327
21,846
4, 366
4,679
12, 801

56,824
20, 578
4,675
6,225
9,678

67,631
18,027
3,141
4,099
10,787

6,794
4,145
1,876
742
1,527

8,696
3,819
1,225
580
2, 014

4 years of high school or more____________________________________________________
High school: 4 years...------------- ------------ ------------------------ ------------ ------------------------College: 1 year or more_____________________________________________________
1 to 3 years.......................... ......... .........................................................................
4 years or more___________ ____________________ ____ _____________

38,895
23,135
15, 760
7, 024
8,736

54,481
32,375
22,106
9,185
12, 921

36,246
21,452
14, 794
6, 548
8, 246

49, 601
29,217
20, 384
8,376
12, 008

2,649
1,683
966
476
490

4,880
3,158
1,722
809
913

Percent distribution
T o ta l...-------- -------- ---------------- ------------ -----------------------------------------------------------Less than 4 years of high school------------- ------------ --------------- -----------------------------------------Elementary: less than 8 years------------------ --------------------------------------------------- --------8 years__________________________________ _____________________
High school: 1 to 3 years------------------------------- --------- ------------------ --------------------------

100.0
38.9
10.3
11.0
17.6

100.0
28.7
5.8
6.1
16.8

100.0
36.2
8.2
11.0
17.0

100.0
26.8
4.7
6.1
16.0

100.0
61.0
27.6
10.9
22.5

100.0
44.0
14.1
6.7
23.2

4 years of high school or more---------------- --------------- ------------------------------------------------------High school: 4 years------- --------------- --------- -------------------- --------------------------------------College: 1 year or m ore.._____ __________________________ _________ ________
1 to 3 years...... ................. ..........................................................................
4 years or more................................................................................ ................

61.1
36.4
24.7
11.0
13.7

71.3
42.4
28.9
12.0
16.9

63.8
37.8
26.0
11.5
14.5

73.4
43.2
30.2
12.4
17.8

39.0
24.8
14.2
7.0
7.2

56.1
36.3
19.8
9.3
10.5

Table A -6 .

Factors determining gross national product 1957, 1965, 1968, and projected 1980
Average Annual Rate of Change >

Projected 1980

1965-80

Services economy Durables economy
1957
Item

1965

1968
3-per­
cent
unemployment

4-per­
cent
unemployment

3-percent
unemployment

Total labor force
(thousands)___ 69,729 77,177 82,272 100,727 100,727 100,727
2,859
2,817
2,940
3,366
3,918
2,940
Employment (establish70,953 77,689 84,772 102, 896 101,867 102,896
9,756 11,994 14,414 18,500 18,315 18,100
4,531
5,609
4,900
4,851
5,100
4,569
8,805 13,600 13, 464 13, 000
7,425
State and local. 5,225
Private...................... 61,197 65,695 70,358 84,396 83,552 84, 796
Hours paid for (annual
2,000
1,977
average) private.. . . . 2,085
2,052
1,977
1,977
Total man’-Hour
(millions) private3----- 127,640 134,781 140, 542 166,858 165,189 167,642
GNP per man-hour (1968
5. 48
7.82
7.82
dollars) private........ .
4.99
7. 82
3. 82
Total GNP (billions of
553.8
865.7 1,427.8 1,415.7 1,429.6
754.3
1968 dollars)........ .
95.3
123.8
122.8
120.9
66.3
81.1
32.8
39.5
35.4
35.2
36.7
Federal.............
32.3
34.0
48.3
55.8
88.4
87.6
84.2
State and local.
770.4 1,304.0 1,292.9 1,308.7
673.2
Private...................... 487.5
21.7
24.9
34.8
34.5
34.8
Agriculture___
25.3
745.5 1,269.2 1,258.4 1,273.9
Nonagriculture. 465.8
647.9

4-per­
cent
unemployment




3-percent
unemployment

4-percent
unemployment

3-percent
unemployment

4-percent
unemployment

3-percent
unemployment

4-percent
unemployment

3-percent
unemployment

4-percent
unemployment

100,727
3,918

1.3
2.1

1.8
-0 .9

1.8
1.0

1.8
-0 .9

1.8
1.0

1.7
0.4

1.7
2.4

1.7
0.4

1.7
2.4

101,867
17,918
5, 049
12,869
83,949

1.1
2.6
0.1
4.5
0.9

1.9
2.9
0.5
4.1
1.7

1.8
2.8
0.4
4.0
1.6

1.9
2.8
0.7
3.8
1.7

1.8
2.7
0.7
3.7
1.6

1.6
2.1
- 1 .1
3.7
1.5

1.5
2.0
-0 .1
3.6
1.4

1.6
1.9
-0 .8
3.3
1.6

1.5
1.8
- 0 .9
3.2
1.5

1,977 - 0 .2

-0 .1

- 0 .2

- 0 .2

-0 .2

-0 .2

- 0 .1

- 0 .1

-0 .1

165,996

0.7

1.4

1.4

1.5

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.5

1.4

7.82

3.4

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

1,417.7
119.7
36.4
83.3
1,298.0
34.5
1,263.5

4.0
2.4
0.2
4.5
4.1
1.9
4.2

4.3
2.8
0.5
4.1
4.5
2.1
4.6

4.3
2.7
0.5
4.0
4.4
2.1
4.5

4.4
2.6
0.8
3.8
4.5
2.1
4.6

4.3
2.6
0.7
3.7
4.4
2.1
4.6

4.3
2.2
- 0 .9
3.9
4.5
2.8
4.5

4.2
2.1
-1 .0
3.8
4.4
2.8
4.5

4.3
2.0
-0 .6
3.5
4.5
2.8
4.6

4.2
1.9
- 0 .7
3.4
4.4
2.8
4.5

1 Compound interest rate between terminal years.
2 The government employment to be consistent with the government product is from
the National Income Accounts.

42

1968-80

195765 Services economy Durables economy Services economy Durables economy

3 Man-hours are estimated for the private sector only since the assumption is made
of no change in hours of the government sector,

Table A-7.

Part-time employment as a percent of total employment, 1956-68
Nonagricultural
part-time work
for noneconomic
reasons1

Total employment
(labor force)

Year

Part time as a
percent
of total
unemployment

Total employment
labor force

Year

(in thousands)

Nonagricultural
part-time work
for noneconomic
reasons1

Part time as a
percent of
total
employment

(in thousands)

..............- - 1956
1957
___________
1958......... .............. .
1959________________

63,802
64,071
63,036
64,630

4,330
4,515
4,542
4,889

6.8
7.0
7.2
7.6

I960
___
_____ _______
1961
1962..................... - .........

65,778
65,746
66,702

5,175
5,361
5,700

7.9
8.2
8.5

i Noneconomic reason means that these workers are working part-time because
they prefer part-time to full-time work; among workers who prefer part-time jobs
are women who have home responsibilities; workers who have limited physical capac­
ities; and workers who combine part-time work with their schooling.

1963________________
1964________________

67,762
69,305

6,021
6,448
6,740
7,441
8,048
8,452

1965
________
71,088
1966
___________ ___________ ___________
72,895
1967................. ...............
74,372
1968________________
75,920

8.9
9.3
9.5
10.2
10.8
11.1

Source: Employment and Earnings, Volume 15 No. 8, February 1969, Bureau of
Labor Statistics,

Table 8. Personal consumption expenditures by m ajor type of goods and services, 1957, 1965, 1968 and projected to
1980, and average annual rates of change
Projected 1980
Services
economy
Major type of goods 1957 1965 1968
or services

3percent
unem­
ploy­
ment

4percent
unem­
ploy­
ment

Projected 1980

Durables
economy
3percent
unem­
ploy­
ment

4percent
unem­
ploy­
ment

Services
economy
1957 1965 1968

Billions of dollars

3percent
unem­
ploy­
ment

4percent
unem­
ploy­
ment

Average annual rate
of change, 1965-80

Durables
economy
3percent
unem­
ploy­
ment

4percent
unem­
ploy­
ment

Durables
economy

Services
economy

Durables
economy

3percent
unem­
ploy­
ment

4percent
unem­
ploy­
ment

3percent
unem­
ploy­
ment

4percent
unem­
ploy
ment

3percent
unem­
ploy­
ment

4percent
unem­
ploy­
ment

3percent
unem­
ploy­
ment

3percent
unem­
ploy­
ment

Percent distribution

Total personal
consumption
expenditures. 342.8 472.0 536.6 903.2 895.6 888.9 881.4 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
DURABLE GOODS.. 42.9 68.8 83.3 137.6 136.5 146.8 145.5 12.5 14.6 15.5
Automobiles and
parts.................. 19.3 31.2 37.0
Furniture and
household
equipment------- 17.9 28.1 34.2
Other..................... b. 7 9.5 12.1

Services
economy

Average annual rate
of change, 1968-80

4.4

4.4

4.3

4.2

4.4

4.4

4.3

4.2

15.2

15.2

16.5

16.5

4.7

4.7

5.2

5.1

4.3

4.2

4.8

4.8

52.1

51.7

56.3

55.8

5.6

6.6

6.9

5.8

5.8

6.3

6.3

3.4

3.4

4.0

3.9

2.9

2.8

3.6

3.5

62.9
22.6

62.4
22.4

66.5
24.0

65.9
23.8

5.2
1.7

6.0
2.0

6.4
2.3

7.0
2.5

7.0
2.5

7.5
2.7

7.5
2.7

5.5
5.9

5.9
5.9

5.9
6.3

5.8
6.3

5.2
5.3

5.1
5.3

5.7
5.9

5.6
5.8

NONDURABLE
GOODS.................. 162.4 209.1 230.6 346.0 343.2 335.0 332.2 47.4 44.3 43.0

38.3

38.3

37.7

37.7

3.4

3.4

3.2

3.1

3.4

3.4

3.2

3.1

Food and beverages____ ____
Clothing and
shoes________
Gasoline and o il..
Other....................

89.2 107.7 115.0 172.0 170.4 166.2 164.7 26.0 22.8 21.4

19.0

19.0

18.7

18.7

3.2

3.1

2.9

2.8

3.4

3.3

3.1

3.0

7.1
2.9
9.3

7.1
2.9
9.3

7.0
2.8
9.2

7.0
2.8
9.2

3.0
3.1
4.4

3.0
3.1
4.3

2.8
2.9
4.2

2.7
2.9
4.1

2.7
2.6
4.4

2.7
2.5
4.4

2.5
2.3
4.2

2.4
2.3
4.1

SERVICES________ 137.5 194.1 222.8 419.1 415.5 407.1 403.7 40.1 41.1 41.5

46.4

46.4

45.8

45.8

5.2

5.2

5.1

5.0

5.4

5.3

5.2

5.1

45.5 67.4 77.4 156.4 155.1 154.1 152.9 13.3 14.3 14.4

17.3

17.3

17.3

17.3

5.8

5.7

5.7

5.6

6.0

6.0

5.9

5.9

19.3 26.8 31.2 55.5 55.0 53.7 53.2 5.6 5.7 5.8
12.1 14.0 16.1 27.9 27.7 26.8 26.5 3.5 3.0 3.0
60.6 85.9 98.1 179.3 177.7 172.5 171.1 17.7 18.2 18.3

6.1
3.1
19.9

6.1
3.1
19.8

6.0
3.0
19.4

6.0
3.0
19.4

5.0
4.7
5.0

4.9
4.6
4.9

4.7
4.4
4.7

4.7
4.4
4.7

4.9
4.7
5.2

4.8
4.6
5.1

4.6
4.3
4.8

4.5
4.3
4.7

Housing................
Household operation..................
Transportation...
Other.....................

29.8 40.8 46.3
11.9 16.4 19.1
31.5 44.2 50.1




63.8
26.0
84.2

63.4
25.8
83.6

62.0
25.2
81.6

61.5
25.1
80.9

8.7
3.5
9.2

8.6
3.5
9.4

8.6
3.6
9.3

43

Table A-9.

State and local government purchases of goods and services by function, selected years and projected 1980
Average annual rates Df change

1980

1965-80
1957

Function

1965

1968

Services economy
3-percent
unem­
ployment

1957-68

4-percent
unem­
ployment

1968-80

3-percent 4-percent 3-percent 4-percent
unemploy­ unemploy­ unemploy­ unemploy­
ment
ment
ment
ment

(Billions of 1968 dollars)
$54.9

$82.6

$100. 7

$180.7

$179.2

5.7

5.4

5.3

5.0

4.9

Education.
--------------------------------------Elementary and secondary______ _______________
Higher________________________________________
Other_____ _______________ ____________ ___
_____ .
. _______
Noneducation...
Highways____________________ ______ __________
Public health and sanitation_________________ ____
Hospitals___________ ________________ ____
Health_____________ ____ __________________
Sanitation_________________________________
Natural resources__________________________
Parks and recreation________________________
Enterprises______ _____ ______ ____________

22.9
19.6
2.7
0.6
32.0
9.8
5.7
4.2
0.9
0.6
1.5
0.9
3.6

36.3
29.6
5.6
1.1
46.3
13.6
7.3
5.6
1.0
0.7
1.7
1.4
5.7

42.9
30.5
9.9
2.5
57.9
14.9
9.7
7.4
1.4
0.9
2.3
1.5
6.4

68.7
41.0
23.5
4.2
112.0
19.8
15.2
11.3
2.3
1.6
4.2
4.6
16.7

68.1
40.6
23.3
4.2
111. 1
19.6
15.1
11.2
2.3
1.6
4.2
4.6
16.6

5.9
4. 1
12.5
13.9
5.5
3.9
5.0
5.3
4.1
3.8
4.0
4.8
5.4

4.3
2.2
10.0
9.3
6.1
2.5
5.0
4.8
5.7
5.7
6.2
8.3
7.4

4.3
2.1
10.0
9.3
6.0
2.5
5.0
4.7
5.7
5.7
6.2
8.3
7.4

4.0
2.5
7.5
4.4
5.7
2.4
3.8
3.6
4.2
4.9
5.1
9.8
8.3

3.9
2.4
7.4
4.4
5.6
2.3
3.8
3.5
4.2
4.9
5.1
9.8
8.3

All other functions_________ ___ _________ _________

10.5

16.6

23.2

51.5

51.0

7.5

7.8

7.8

6.9

6.8

Total purchases.._ __________ _______________

Table A - 10.

Alternative gross national product annual rate of change, 1965-80

Unemployment rate

1980 projected
percent change in
annual hours per
person

Projected annual change in GNP pe man-hour (total
economy >)
2.3 percent

2.6 percent

2.9 percent

Average annual rate of change in real gross national
product 1965-80
2.5-percent unemployment_____ _______________________________________________________

(-.1 )
(-.2 )
(-.3 )

4.2
4.1
4.0

4.5
4.4
4.3

4.8
4.7
4.6

3.0-percent unemployment____ ____ ________________________________________ __________

(-.1 )
(-.2 )
(-.3 )

4.1
4.0
3.9

4.4
4.3
4.2

4.7
4.6
4.5

3.5-percent unemployment................... .............................. ......... ....................................... .......................

(-.1 )
(-.2 )
(-.3 )

4.1
4.0
3.9

4.4
4.3
4.2

4.7
4.6
4.5

4.0-percent unemployment...___________________________ ______________________________

(-.1 )
(-.2 )
(-.3 )

4.1
4.0
3.9

4.4
4.3
4.2

4.7
4.6
4.5

4.5-percent unemployment_____________________________________________________________

(-.1 )
(-.2 )
(-.3 )

4.0
3.9
3.8

4.3
4.2
4.1

4.6
4.5
4.4

1 The GNP per man-hour for the total economy is .3 to .4 lower because the government has been added in with no change in output per man-hour.

44




Table A -11.

Domestic output by detailed industries, selected periods and projected 1965-80

[Average annual rates of change at producers' value in 1968 dollars *]
196 5-80

Industry name and number

1947-65 1947-57 1957-65

Services economy

Durables economy

3*percent
unemploy­
ment

4-percent
unemploy­
ment

3-percent
unemploy­
ment

4-percent
unemploy­
ment

1.
2.
3.
4.

Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries__________________________________________
Livestock and livestock products______________________________________________
Other agricultural products__________________________________________________
Forestry and fishery products..______________________________________________
Agricultural, forestry and fishery services______________________________________

1.7
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.8

1.4
1.7
0.9
2.2
2.2

2.1
1.7
2.7
1.4
1.4

2.9
2.8
3.0
2.0
1.5

2.9
2.8
3.0
2.0
1.5

2.8
2.7
2.9
2.5
1.5

2.7
2.6
2.9
2.4
1.4

5.
6.
/.
8.
9.
10.

Mining_____ . . . _______ ____ . ________________________________________
Iron and ferroalloy ores mining______________________________________ _______
Nonferrous metal ores mining. ----- ------- --------------------------------------------------------------Coal mining ___________________________________ _________________________
Crude petroleum and natural gas. __________________________________________
Stone and clay mining and quarrying__________________________________________
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining______________ _____ _______________ ____

2.2
2.7
1.8
- 1 .8
3.3
5. 3
6.1

2.5
3.1
3.1
-3 .1
4.6
6.2
6.2

1.7
2.3
0.1
0.0
1.8
4.2
6.1

3.4
2.5
4.8
1.8
3.4
4.2
5.9

3.4
2.5
4.8
1.8
3.4
4.2
5.9

3.5
3.0
5.0
1.8
3.4
4.5
6.0

3.4
2.9
4.9
1.7
3.3
4. 4
5.9

Construction_____________________________________________________________
11. New construction__________________________________________________________
12. Mainenance and repair construction___________________________________________

4.7
4.9
4.2

4.9
5.5
2.9

4.4
4.1
5.9

4.2
4.4
3.2

4.2
4.4
3.2

4.4
4.8
3.2

4.4
4.7
3.1

Manufacturing___________________________________________________________
Ordnance and accessories___________________________________________________
Food and kindred products-------- . . . . --------------------------------------------------------------Tobacco manufactures------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------- ------Broad and narrow fabrics, yarn and thread mills-----------------------------------------------------Miscellaneous textile goods and floor coverings. .. ----------------------------------------------

3.8
7.4
2.4
1.3
2.4
4.4
3.4
3.8
2.3
-2 .1
3.5
3.4
3.9
4.7
3.3
6.8
9.3
7.1
2.6
3.9
4.8
- 1 .5
0.5
3.0
5.0
1.6
3.7
3.1
3.8
1.7
3.2
3.0
1.7
2.1
3.4
2.7
1.1
3.4
7.2
8.9
4.6
3.9
4.5
3.3
9.1
13.4
2.2
5.3

3.5
14. 1
2.4
0.3
1.3
2.5
3.4
3.6
1.4
- 3 .6
3.7
2.4
3.6
4.5
3.0
7.5
9.6
7.1
1.2
4.8
2.9
-2 .2
0.4
1.9
5.9
1.3
3.1
3.3
4.7
1.0
2.8
2.4
0.2
1.8
3.0
3.1
-1 .3
1. 8
8.5
7.7
2.6
4.1
2.7
2.1
9.0
12.0
0.9
4.5
20.2
0.9
4.0
6.4
2.2
0.7
8.6
7.7
10.3
9.0
3.6
5.0
4.2
5.4
3.5

4.1
- 0 .4
2.6
2.4
3.7
6.9
3.4
3.9
3.3
- 0 .2
3.4
4.6
4.3
4.9
3.6
6.0
9.0
7.0
4.3
2.8
7.3
-0 .8
0.6
4.4
3.8
1.9
4.3
2.9
2.7
2.7
3.8
3.9
3.6
2.4
4.1
2.3
4.2

4.2
3.2
3.3
2.3
3.7
4.2
3.8
3.7
3.5
0.3
5.0
5.4
4.8
4.4
4.4
5.4
6.8
6.0
4.3
3.5
6.3
- 0 .3
1.4
3.9
4.6
1.9
5.3
3.3
4.2
3.7
3.9
4.2
3.4
3.5
4.2
3.0
4.0
3.4
4.9
10.3
6.5
4.9
5.1
4.7
6.2
8.4
5.5
2.9
2.6
2.9
5.4
8.8
5.6
4.0
6.6
7.0
2.0
6.7
4.7
4.8

4.2
3.2
3.3
2.3
3.7
4.1
3.7
3.6
3.4
0.2
4.9
5.3
4.7
4.3
4.3
5.3
6.7
5.9
4.2
3.4
6.2
- 0 .3
1.4
3.8
4.5
1.8
5.2
3.2
4.1
3.7
3.8
4.1
3.4
3.4
4.1
2.9
3.9
3.3
4.8
10.2
6.4
4.8
5.0
4.6
6.1
8.4
5.4
2.8
2.6
2.9
5.4
8.8
5.5
3.9
6.6
6.9
1.9
6.6
4.6
4.8
4.3
4.9

4.5
5.7
3.2
2.2
3.7
4.3
3.5
3.6
3.7
0.4
5.3
5.4
4.8
4.4
4.3
5.4
6.8
5.7
4.4
3.4
6.4
-0 .4
1.2
4.0
4.8
2.2
5.7
3.1
4.5
4.1
4.1
4.6
3.7
3.8
4.5
3.6
4.4
3.9

5.5

5.4

4.4
5.6
3.1
2.1
3.6
4.2
3.5
3.5
3.6
0.3
5.2
5.4
4.7
4.3
4.3
5.3
6.8
5.6
4.3
3.3
6.4
-0 .4
1.2
3.9
4.8
2.2
5.6
3.0
4.4
4.0
4.0
4.5
3.7
3.8
4.5
3.5
4.3
3.9
5.4
10.8
6.8
5.4
5.3
4.9
7.0
9.2
5.6
3.1
4.6
3.7
6.1
8.9
5.5
3.9
6.5
6.9
2.0
6.5
4.6
4.6
4.2
4.8
5.3

13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
2/.
28.
29.
30.
31.
32.

33.
34.
35.
36.
37.
38.
39.
40.
41.
42.
43.
44.
4b.
46.
47.
48.
49.
60.
bl.
52.
53.

54.

55.
56.
57.
58.
59.
60.
61.
62.
63.
64.
65.
66.
6/.
68.
69.
70.
71.

Miscellaneous fabricated textile products.. ________ _______ ____ ___________
Lumber and wood products, except containers__________________________________
Wooden containers_________________________________________________________
Household furniture________________________________________________________
Other furniture and fixtures_____ _
______________________________________
Paper and allied products, except container. __________________________________
Paperboard containers and boxes_____________________________________________
Printing and publishing______________________
______________
_________
Chemicals and selected chemical products. __________________________________
Plastics and synthetic materials______________________________________________
Drugs, cleaning and toilet preparations________________________________________
Paints and allied products______________________________________ . __________
Petroleum refining and related industries_____________________
_ . ________
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products_____________________________ ____ _
Leather tanning and industrial leather products____________________ . _________
Footwear and other leather products. ____________________________ ___________
Glass and glass products________________________________ ____ _ __________
Stone and clay products_____________________________________________________
Primary iron and steel manufacturing____________________________ __________
Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing______________________________________
Metal containers____________
____ _ . ____________ ___________ _____
Heating, plumbing and structural metal products________________________________
Stampings, screw machine products and bolts__________________________________
Other fabricated metal products______________________________________________
Engines and turbines_________________________________________ ____________
Farm machinery and equipment.. ____________________________ ______________
Construction, mining and oil field machinery. _ _______________________________
Materials handling machinery and equipment __________________________________
Metalworking machinery and equipment_______________________________________
Special industry machinery and equipment_______ _____________
__________
General industrial machinery and equipment . __________________________________
Machine shop products___________ . . . _____________________________________
Office, computing and accounting machines____________ _______________________
Service industry machines___________________________________________________
Electric industrial equipment and apparatus_____________ _____________________
Household appliances_____________ ______________________________________
Electric lighting and wiring equipment_________________________________________
Radio, television and communication equipment________ ___________ __________
Electronic components and accessories_________________________________________
Miscellaneous electrical machinery, equipment and supplies.. _. ________________
Motor vehicles and equipment________________________________________________
Aircraft and parts__________________________________________________________
Other transportation equipment________________________________
________
Scientific and controlling instruments___________ _____________________________
Optical, ophthalmic and photographic equipment________________________________
Miscellaneous manufacturing_________________ ___ ___________________________
Transportation and warehousing______________________________________________
Communications and public utilities_________________________________________
Communications, excluding radio and TV broadcasting___________________________
Radio & T V broadcasting_____________________________________ _____________
Electric, gas, water and sanitary services_______________________________________
Wholesale and retail trade___________________________________________________
Finance, insurance and real estate__________________________________________
Finance and insurance___ _________________________________________________
Real estate and rental______________________________________________________
Services and miscellaneous________
____________ ____________________




1 1 .1

2.5
4.1
6.7
3.4
1.6
7.5
7.4
7.5
7.5
3.9
5.1

4.4

5.4
4.0

5. 5

5.6
10.5
7.2
3.6
6.8
5.0
9.1
15.2
3.7
6.2
0.7
4.5
4.2
7.1
5.0
2.8
6.0
7.1
4.1
5.7
4.4

5.2
4.7
5.4
4.6

4.4

5.0
5.5

5.5

10.9
6.9
5.5
5.4
5.0
7.0
9.3
5.7
3.1
4.6
3.7
6.1
9.0
5.6
4.0
6.6
6.9
2.1
6.6
4.7
4.7
4.3
4.8

45

Table A - 11.

Domestic output by detailed industries, selected periods and projected 1965-80— Continued

[Average annual rates of change at producers’ value in 1968 dollars >
]
1965-80
Industry name and number

1947-65 1947-57 1957-65

Services economy

Durables economy

3-percent
unemployment
Hotels, personal and repair services, excluding auto------------------------------------------------Business services----------------------------------- ------- ----------------------------------------------------Research and development..------------- ----------------------- -------------------------------------------Automobile repair and service_______________________ ________________________
Amusements--------------------- --------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------Medical, educational services and nonprofit organizations_________________________
Government enterprises.------ --------------- ------------------------------------------------------------78. Federal Government enterprises.................... ............................ ............................................
State and local government enterprises_________________ _________ ____ ________
79.
n.

3.
74.
75.
76.
77.

i Output is gross duolicated output in constant 1968 prices.
... ,„ r . . , .
.... . .
.. .
.
. . .
. . . . . . . .
Note: 1965 total is consistent with estimates of gross national product published in
“Survey of Current Business” , July 1968.

46




2.8
5.2
6.4
3.0
0.2
5.0
4.2
5.4
3.4

2.1
5.2
5.2
2.3
- 1 .5
5.0
3.3
4.9
2.3

3.7
5.3
7.8
3.9
2.3
5.1
5.3
6.1
4.8

4-percent
unemployment

3-percent
unemployment

4.6
6.3
6.0
4.8
4.4
5.5
5.3
5.1
5.5

4.5
6.2
5.9
4.7
4.3
5.4
5.3
5.0
5.4

4.3
6.4
6.7
4.6
4.1
5.2
5.2
5.0
5.3

4-percent
unemployment
4.3
6.3
6.7
4.6
4.0
5.1
5.1
4.9
5.3

Source: Historical rates based on data from Office of Business Economics, U.S.
Department of Commerce. Projections are by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Table A -12. Ten selected industries projected to grow rapidly in real output,1 1965-80
Average annual rate of growth 2
Industry name and number

Rank

3-percent
unemployment

4-percent
unemployment

SERVICES ECONOMY
51
63.
57.
66.
28
68.
52.
32.
73.
56.

Office, computing and accounting machines----- --------------------------- ------Optical, ophthalmic and photographic equipment------------- -----------------Electronic components and accessories------- ------- - ------- --------------------Communications; except broadcasting-------------------------------- ------- -------Plastics and synthetic materials------------------------------------ ------------------Electric, gas, water and sanitary services.----------------------------------------Service industry machines------ — ------------------------------------------------Rubber and miscellaneous plastics........ ...............- ----------------------------Business services----------------. . . . . . . . . — .........................................Radio, television and communication equipment...... ........... ......... .............
DURABLES ECONOMY

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8-9
8-9
10

10.3
8.8
8.4
7.0
6.8
6.7
6.5
6.3
6.3
6.2

10.2
8.8
8.4
6.9
6.7
6.6
6.4
6.2
6.2
6.1

51.
57
63
56.
66.
52.
28.
74
68.
32

Office, computing and accounting machines............ .....................................
Electronic components and accessories. . . --------------------------- ------- ------Optical, ophthalmic and photographic equipment--------------------------------Radio, television and communication equipment..------------------------------Communications; except broadcasting..---------- ---------------------------------Service industry machines.------------- -------------------------- ---------------------Plastics and synthetic materials---------- ------- -----------------------------------Research and development— --------------------------------------------------------Electric, gas, water and sanitary services----------------------- -------------------Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products---------------------------------------

1
2
3
4
5-6
5-6
7
8
9
10-11

10.9
9.3
9.0
7.0
6.9
6.9
6.8
6.7
6.6
6.4

10.8
9.2
8.9
7.0
6.9
6.8
6.8
6.7
6.5
6.4

i Output growth is change in real terms of gross duplicated output. This differs from
gross output originating in that it counts in the output of each industry its cost of ma­
terials as well as the products primary to its output which are made in other sectors
as secondary products.

2 Average annual rate of change in compound interest between terminal years. Out­
put is the gross duplicated value stated in 1958 orices.

Table A -13. Ten selected industries projected to grow slowly in real o utput,1 1965-80
Average annual rate of growth2
Industry name and number

Rank

3-percent
unemployment

4-percent
unemployment

SERVICES ECONOMY
Leather tanning and industrial leather products.
Footwear and other leather products.............. .
Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services.........
7. Coal mining......................... ........... r .....................
37. Primary iron and steel manufacturing................
3.
Forestry and fishery products..................... .......
15. Tobacco manufacturers— .................................
5. Iron and ferro-alloy ores mining.........................
1. Livestock and livestock products..................... 2. Agricultural products except livestock............ ..
33.
34.
4.

1
2

3
4
5

- 0 .3
1.4
1.5
1.8

1.9

- 0 .3
1.4
1.5

1
.8
1
.8

6

2.0

2 .0

8

2.3
2.5

2.3
2.5

7
9

2.8

2.8

10

3.0

3.0

1
2

- 0 .4

- 0 .4

DURABLES ECONOMY
33.
34.
4.
7.
15.
37.
3.
1.
2.
5.

Leather tanning and industrial leather products.
Footwear and other leather products......... .......
Agricultural, forestry and fishery services-------Coal mining............ .............................................
Tobacco manufacturers.........................................
Primary iron and steel manufacturing........ .......
Forestry and fishery products......................... .
Livestock and livestock products.........................
Agricultural products except livestock...... .........
Iron and ferro-alloy ores mining---------------------

i Output growth is change in real terms of gross duplicated output. This differs from
gross output originating in that it counts in the output of each industry its cost of ma­
terials as well as the products primary to its output which are made in other sectors
as secondary products.




3
4
5
6

7
8

9
10

1.2

1.5

1.8
2.2
2.2

2.5
2.7
2.9
3.0

1.2

1.4
1.7
2.1
2.2

2.4
2.6

2.9
2.9

2 Average annual rate of change in compound interest between terminal years. Out­
put is the gross duplicated value stated in 1958 prices.

47

Table A - 14.

Industries with significant changes in projected output growth rates for the period 1965-80 in relation to
1957-65 i

Projected output growth rates 1.0 percentage points below 1957-65 rates

Projected output growth rates 1.0 percentage point above 1957-65 rates
Industry

Industry
12.
17.
28.
29.
32.
49.
54.
56.
57.
59.
61.
67.
74.

1.
6.
7.
8.
13.
22.
38.
40.
41.
45.
53.
58.
60.
62.
63.
65.
68.
73.
76.

Maintenance and repair construction
Miscellaneous fabricated textile products
Plastics and synthetic materials
Drugs, cleaning and toilet preparations
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products
General industrial machinery and equipment
Household appliances
Radio, television and communication equipment
Electronic components and accessories
Motor vehicles and equipment
Other transportation equipment
Radio and television broadcasting
Research and development

Livestock and livestock products
Nonferrous metal ores mining
Coal mining
Crude petroleum and natural gas
Ordnance and accessories
Household furniture
Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing
Heating, plumbing and structural metal products
Stampings, screw machine products and bolts
Construction, mining and oil field machinery
Electric industrial equipment and apparatus
Miscellaneous electrical machinery and supplies
Aircraft and parts
Scientific and controlling instruments
Optical, ophthalmic and photographic equipment
Transportation and warehousing
Electric, gas, water and sanitary services
Business services
Amusements

i Industries not shown on this table have projected growth in output for the 1965-80 period that is expected to be less than 1.0 percent per year from their 1957-65 rates.

Table A - 15. Rate of change in output per m an-hour1 by detailed industry projected for the period 1965-80
2.5 percent a year or less
Industry nameand number
3.
4.
11.
12.
18.
19.
23.
33.
34.
41.
44.
45.
46.
47.
49.
55.
60.
61.
67.
70.
73.
74.
76.
77.

2.6 to 3.5 percent a year
1ndustry name ar.d number

Forestry and fishery products
Agricultural, forestry and fishery services
New construction
Maintenance and repair construction
Apparel
Miscellaneous fabricated textile products
Other furniture and fixtures
Leather tanning and industrial leather products
Footwear and other leather products
Stampings, screw machine products and bolts
Farm machinery and equipment
Construction, mining and oil field machinery
Materials handling machinery and equipment
Metal working machinery and equipment
General industrial machinery and equipment
Electric lighting and wiring equipment
Aircraft and parts
Other transportation equipment
Radio and television broadcasting
Finance and insurance
Business services
Research and development
Amusements
Medical, educational services and nonprofit organiza­
tions

9.
13.
14.
22.
24.
25.
26.
29.
30.
32.
35.
36.
37.
38.
39.
40.
42.
43.
48.
50.
52.
53.
59.
63.
65.
69.
72.
75.

Stone and clay mining and quarrying
Ordnance and accessories
Food and kindred products
Household furniture
Paper and allied products except containers
Paper board containers and boxes
Printing and publishing
Drugs, cleaning, and toilet preparations
Paints and allied products
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products
Glass and glass products
Stone and clay products
Primary iron and steel manufacturing
Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing
Metal containers
Heating, plumbing and structural metal products
Other fabricated metal products
Engines and turbines
Special industry machinery and equipment
Machine shop products
Services industry machines
Electric industrial equipment and apparatus
Motor vehicles and equipment
Scientific and controlling instruments
Transportation and warehousing
Wholesale and retail trade
Hotels; personal and repair services, excluding auto
Automobile repair and services

3.6 percent a year or more
Industry nameand number
1.
2.
5.
6.
7.
8.
10.
15.
16.
17.
20.
21.
27.
28.
31.
51.
54.
56.
57.
58.
63.
64.
66.
68.
71.

Livestock and livestock products
Other agricultural products
Iron and ferro-alloy ores mining
Nonferrous metal ores mining
Coal mining
Crude petroleum and natural gas
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining
Tobacco manufactures
Broad and narrow fabrics, yarn and thread mills
Miscellaneous textile goods and floor covering
Lumber and wood products, except containers
Wood containers
Chemicals and selected chemical products
Plastics and synthetic materials
Petroleum refining and related industries
Office, computing and accounting machines
Household appliances
Radio, television and communication equipment
Electronic components and accessories
Miscellaneous electrical machinery and supplies
Optical, ophthalmac ar.d photographic equipment
Miscellaneous manufacturing
Communications; except broadcasting
Electric, gas, water and sanitary services
Real estate and rental

i Output per man-hour is the same in both structures of the economy; services and durables are at both levels of unemployment.

48




Table A - 16. Total civilian em ploym ent1 by major industry group, 1960, 1965, 1968, and projected 1980
1980
Sector

1960

1965

1968

Services economy

Durables economy

3-percent
4-percent
3-percent
4-percent
unemployment unemployment unemployment unemployment
Total (In thousands)______________________________

68,868

74, 568

80, 788

99,600

98,600

99,400

98,400

Goods producing________________________________________

27, 280

27,786

28, 975

31,618

31,300

32,615

32, 286

Agriculture, forestry and fisheries________________________
Mining_______________________________________________
Construction__________________________________________
Manufacturing________________________________________
Durable__________________________________________
Nondurable_______________________________________

5,699
750
3,641
17,190
9,697
7,493

4,671
667
3,994
18,454
10, 644
7,810

4,154
646
4,050
20,125
11,854
8, 271

3,188
590
5,482
22,358
13,274
9, 084

3,156
584
5,427
22,133
13,141
8, 992

3,192
588
5, 595
23, 240
14,322
8,918

3,160
582
5, 539
23, 005
14,176
8, 829

Service producing____ __________________________________

41, 588

46, 782

51,813

67, 982

67, 300

66, 785

66,114

Transportation, communication and public utilities__________
Trade_._____________________________________________
Finance, insurance and real estate________________________
Services, including households___________________________
Government__________________________________________
Federal___ ___________ ____ _________ _____________
State and local____________________________________

4,215
14, 222
2, 981
11,817
8,353
2, 270
6, 083

4,250
15,352
3,367
13,722
10, 091
2,377
7,714

4, 524
16, 604
3,726
15,113
11,846
2,737
9,109

4, 976
20,487
4,639
21,080
16, 800
3, 000
13,800

4, 926
20, 282
4, 593
20,867
16,632
2, 970
13,662

4, 961
20, 501
4, 538
20, 585
16, 200
3, 000
13, 200

4, 911
20, 296
4,493
20,376
16, 038
2,970
13, 068

Total (percent distribution) _____ ______ ________________

100,0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

Goods producing________________________________________

39.6

37.3

35.9

31.7

31.7

32.8

32.8

Agriculture, forestry and fisheries________________________
Mining_______________________________________________
Construction__________________________________________
Manufacturing________________________________________
Durable__________________________________________
Nondurable.-._________________ ______ ______ ______

8.3
1.0
5.2
25.0
14.1
11.0

6.3
0.9
5.4
24.7
14.3
10.5

5.1
0.8
5.0
24.9
14.7
10.2

3.2
0.6
5.5
22.4
13.3
9.1

3.2
0.6
5.5
22.4
13.3
9.1

3.2
0.6
5.6
23.4
14.4
9.0

3.2
0.6
5.6
23.4
14.4
9.0

Service producing________________________________________

60.4

62.7

69.1

68.4

68.4

67.2

67.2

Transportation, communication and public utilities__________
Trade____________ _____________________________ _____
Finance, insurance and real estate________________________
Services, including households.. _______________ ______ __
Government__________________________________________
Federal___________________ ______ ________________
State and local____ ____________ __________ _______ _

6.1
20.7
4.3
17.2
12.1
3.3
8.8

5.7
20.6
4.5
18.4
13.5
3.2
10.3

5.6
20.6
4.6
18.7
14.7
3.4
11.7

5.0
20.6
4.7
21.2
16.9
3.0
13.9

5.0
20.6
4.7
21.2
16.9
3.0
13.9

5.0
20.6
4.6
20.7
16.3
3.0
13.3

5.0
20.6
4.6
20.7
16.3
3.0
13.3

Table A - 17. Total civilian employment by major industry group, average annual rates of change, 1965-80 and 1968-80
Average annual rates of change, 1968-80

Average annual rates of change, 1965-80

Industry

Services economy
3-percent
unemploy­
ment

Durables economy

4-percent
unemploy­
ment

3-percent
unemploy­
ment

Services economy

4-percent
unemploy­
ment

3-percent
unemploy­
ment

Durables economy

4-percent
unemploy­
ment

3-percent
unemploy­
ment

4-percent
unemploy­
ment

Total____________________________________________

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.8

1.7

1.7

1.7

Agriculture, forestry and fisheries_________________________
Mining_____________ ____ __________ _____ ____ _________
Construction___________________ ______ ________ _____
Manufacturing__________________________________________
Durable___________________________________________
Nondurable________________________________________
Transportation, communications and public utilities___________
Trade________________________________ .
____
Finance, insurance and real estate_________________________
Services including households_____________________________
Government____________________________________________
Federal___________________ _______
_____
State and local______________________________________

- 2 .5
- 0 .8
2.1
1.3
1.5
1.0
1.1
1.9
2.2
2.9
3.5
1.6
4.0

-2 .5
-0 .9
2.1
1.2
1.4
0.9
1.0
1.9
2.1
2.8
3.4
1.5
3.9

- 2 .5
- 0 .8
2.3
1.5
2.0
0.9
1.0
1.9
2.0
2.7
3.2
1.6
3.6

- 2 .5
- 0 .9
2.2
1.5
1.9
0.8
1.0
1.9
1.9
2.7
3.1
1.5
3.6

- 2 .2
- 0 .8
2.6
0.9
1.0
0.8
0.8
1.8
1.9
2.8
3.0
0.8
3.5

- 2 .2
-0 .8
2.5
0.8
0.9
0.7
0.7
1.7
1.8
2.7
2.9
0.7
3.4

- 2 .2
-0 .8
2.7
1.2
1.6
0.6
0.8
1.8
1.7
2.6
2.6
0.8
3.1

- 2 .2
- 0 .9
2.6
1.1
1.5
0.5
0.7
1.7
1.6
2.5
2.6
0.7
3.1




49

Table A - 18. Total civilian em p lo ym e n t1 by detailed industries, I960, 1965, 1968, and projected 1980
In thousands]
Projected 1980
Industry name and number

Total.
Apiculture, Forestry and Fisheries.....................................................
1. Livestock and livestock products..........................................
2. Other agricultural products...................................................
3. Forestry and fishery products........... ....................................
4. Agricultural, forestry and fishery services---------------------Mining............................................................................ .................
5. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining.............. ...............................
6. Nonferrous metal ores mining................................................
7. Coal mining................................................ - ...........................
8. Crude petroleum and natural gas........................ .................
9. Stone and clay mining and quarrying................................... |
10. Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining...............................
Construction........ ............... ........... ................................................
11. New construction.................................................................
12. Maintenance and repair construction.............. .............. — }
Manufacturing-------------- ------- ----------------------------- - ..................
13. Ordnance and accessories.................. .......... .....................
14. Food and kindred products......................... ...........................
15. Tobacco manufactures...........................................................
16. Broad and narrow fabrics, yarn and thread mills......... —
17. Miscellaneous textile goods and floor coverings.................. .
18. Apparel.................................................................................
19. Miscellaneous fabricated textile products-----------------------20. Lumber and wood products, except containers....................
21. Wooden containers.................................................................22. Household furniture.............. ......... ........................................
23. Other furniture and fixtures____________ _____________
24. Paper and allied products, except containers........................
25. Paperboard containers and boxes.......... ...............................
26. Printing and publishing.................. ......................................
27. Chemicals and selected chemical products............................
28. Plastics and synthetic materials------------------------------------29. Drugs, cleaning and toilet preparation...................................
30. Paints and allied products......... ........... ..................................
31. Petroleum refining and related industries................. ...........
32. Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products........... ............
33. Leather tanning and industrial leather products..................
34. Footwear and other leather products......................................
35. Glass and glass products.......... ..............................................
36. Stone and clay products..........................................................
37. Primary iron and steel manufacturing....................................
38. Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing.............................
39. Metal containers.......................................................................
40. Heating, plumbing and structural metal products.................
41. Stampings, screw machine products and bolts.....................
42. Other fabricated metal products_____ ____________ ____
43. Engines and turbines...... ........... ............ ...................... .........
44. Farm machinery and equipment..................................... .
45. Construction, mining and oil field machinery........................
46. Materials handling machinery and equipment............... .......
47. Metalworking machinery and equipment_______________
48. Special industry machinery and equipment...........................
49. General industrial machinery and equipment........................
50. Machine shop products____ ____ _____ _______________
51. Office, computing and accounting machines_____________
52. Service industry machines....................................................
53. Electric industrial equipment and apparatus____________
54. Household appliances...............................................................
55. Electric lighting and wiring equipment..................................
56. Radio, television and communication equipment_________
57. Electronic components and accessories_____ ____ ______
58. Miscellaneous electrical machinery, equipment and supplies
59. Motor vehicles and equipment............ ......... .........................
60. Aircraft and parts.................. ...............................................
61. Other transportation equipment__________ _____ ______
62. Scientific and controlling instruments__________________
63. Optical, ophthalmic and photographic equipment.................
64. Miscellaneous manufacturing..__________ _____ ______
Services except households.......................................... .......................
65. Transportation and warehousing..........................................
66. Communications; exc. radio and TV broadcasting................
67. Radio and TV broadcasting_______ .....................................
68. Electric, gas, water and sanitary services.____ _________
69. Wholesale and retail trade.......................... ......... ...................
70. Finance and insurance..................... .......................................
71. Real estate and rental.............. .............................................
72. Hotels: personal and repair services, exc. auto....................
73. Business services................ ...................................................
74. Research and development................ ...................................
75. Automobile repair and service................................................
76. Amusements............................... .............................. ...............

50




1965

I960

1968

Services economy

Durables economy

3 percent
4 percent
3 percent
4 percent
unemployment unemployment unemployment unemployment
99,600
98,600
99,400
98,400

68,868

74,568

80,788

5,699
5, 389

4,671
4, 338

4,154
3,811

3,188
2,800

3,156
2,772

3,192
2,800

3,160
2,772

310
750
38
58
195
331
128

333
667
30
56
149
308
124

343
646
29
57
141
298
121

388
590
26
61
99
269
135

384
584
26
60
98
266
134

392
588
28
62
98
263
137

388
582
28
61
97
260
136

3,641
17,190
220
1,835
94
604
109
1,338
141
674
46
285
119
425
177
984
400
155
209
63
212
382
37
328
159
462
911
327
71
426
287
370
86
115
157
64
275
171
233
179
146
100
344
155
141
489
234
107
725
629
220
246
110
414
30, 681
2,743
750
94
628
14,222
2,284
697
2,466
1,761
426
635

3,994
18, 454
226
1,798
87
584
115
1,450
162
660
38
325
129
440
200
1,057
411
194
234
66
183
474
35
320
172
474
941
367
71
466
323
428
91
139
177
79
318
196
266
212
191
114
362
165
177
550
307
101
844
625
276
262
130
442
34, 087
2,727
776
110
637
15,352
2,598
769
2,752
2, 303
501
708

4, 050
20,125
342
1,811
84
614
132
1,502
178
634
42
351
145
471
222
1,128
473
216
265
70
187
560
33
325
188
463
931
391
78
507
363
469
110
145
192
89
358
201
285
249
245
135
417
178
206
676
388
121
871
852
311
304
159
458
37, 532
2,868
865
126
665
16, 604
2,916
810
2,880
2,777
536
768

5,482
22, 358
250
1,799
65
551
121
1,780
203
663
22
432
208
556
245
1,322
501
275
336
75
155
763
25
312
218
591
851
492
80
618
405
535
120
173
220
125
395
248
326
308
400
180
480
210
249
760
505
130
901
761
352
373
180
513
48, 382
3,117
972
163
724
20, 487
3,690
949
3,621
4,539
664
998

5,427
22,133
247
1,781
64
545
120
1,762
201
656
22
428
206
550
243
1,309
496
272
333
74
153
755
25
309
216
585
842
487
79
612
401
530
119
171
218
124
391
246
323
305
396
178
475
208
247
752
500
129
892
753
348
369
178
508
47, 898
3,086
962
161
717
20, 282
3,653
940
3, 584
4, 495
657
988

5,595
23, 240
351
1,735
63
541
124
1,727
198
680
22
448
208
551
244
1,307
498
277
321
76
152
777
25
302
221
609
891
522
78
641
425
553
128
180
230
132
429
262
353
333
433
190
523
219
260
855
563
134
933
1,017
393
411
183
512
47, 785
3,126
959
164
712
20, 501
3,607
931
3,509
4,579
652
956

5,539
23 005
347
1,718
62
536
123
1 710
196
673
22
444
206
545
242
1,294
493
274
318
75
150
769
25
299
219
603
882
517
77
634
421
547
127
178
228
131
425
259
349
330
428
188
518
217
257
846
557
133
923
1,006
389
407
181
507
47,306
3, 095
949
162
705
20, 296
3,571
922
3,473
4,534
645
946

Table A - 18. Total civilian em p lo ym e n t1 by detailed industries, 1960, 1965, 1968, and projected 1980—Continued
[I n thousands]
Projected 1980
1965

1960

Industry name and number

1968

Services economy

Durables economy

3 percent
4 percent
3 percent
4 percent
unemployment unemployment unemployment unemployment
77. Medical, educational svcs. and nonprofit org__........ ..........
Government___ ____ ___________________________ _______
Federal government________ _____ ______ ____ ______
State and local government------------------------------------------86. Households........... ................................. ........... ..........................

3,975
8,353
2,270
6,083
2,554

4,854
10, 091
2,377
7,714
2,604

5,717
11,846
2,737
9,109
2,435

8,458
16,800
3,000
13,800
2,800

8,373
16,632
2,970
13,662
2,770

8,089
16,200
3,000
13,200
2,800

8,008
16,038
2,970
13,068
2,770

i Includes wage and salary employees, self employed, and unpaid family workers.

Table A - 19. Total civilian employment by detailed industries, average annual rates of change 1965-80 1968-80
Average annual rates of change 1965-80
Service economy

Average annual rates of change 1968-80

Durables economy

Service economy

Durables economy

Industry name and number
3-percent
unemploy­
ment

4-percent
unemploy­
ment

3-percent
unemploy­
ment

4-percent
unemploy­
ment

3-percent
unemploy­
ment

4-percent
unemploy­
ment

3-percent
unemploy­
ment

4-percent
unemploy­
ment

1.9
Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries

_______________

___

}
3. Forestry and fishery products_____________ _ _ ............
4 Agricultural, forestry and fishery services____
}
Mining__________ ' ............... _ ______________________
7. Coal mining..... ... ................ - - - -

- _____

__

9. Stone and clay mining and quirrying. _ ________ ___ }
10. Chemical and fertilize? mineral mining __ . . . _____
12. Maintenance and repair construction_____________ _____
Manufacturing____________ _________________________

16. Broad and narrow fabrics, yarn and thread mills.................
17. Miscellaneous textile goods and floor coverings.. _______
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.

Miscellaneous fabricated textile products.. ____________
Lumber and wood products, except containers___ ______
Wooden containers ........ ......... ................ .......................
Household furniture _______________________________
Other furniture and fixtures _________________________

25. Paperboard containers and boxes... __________________
26. Printing and publishing.............. ................................. ..
28. Plastics and synthetic materials.._______________ ____
30. Paints and allied products.!__ ’ ___________ ______ _____

35. Glass and glass products.. _________ . _____________

40.
41.
42.
43.
44.
45.
46.
47.
48.
49.

Heating, plumbing and structural metal products________
Stampings, screw machine products and bolts. . . ____
Other fabricated metal products_______________________
___ _____ .
Engines and turbines
Farm machinery and equipment___________
_______
Construction, mining arid oil field machinery_______ ____
Materials handling machinery and equipment............ . . . .
Metalworking machinery and equipment_______________
Special industry machinery and equipment_____________
General industrial machinery and equipment____________




1.9

1.9

1.9

1.8

1.7

1.7

1.7

-2 .5
- 2 .9

- 2 .5
-2 .9

-2 .5
-2 .9

- 2 .5
- 2 .9

- 2 .2
- 2 .5

-2 .2
- 2 .6

- 2 .2
-2 .5

- 2 .2
- 2 .6

L0
- 0 .8
-1 .0
0.6
- 2 .7
- 0 .9
0.6

1.0
- 0 .9
-1 .0
0.5
- 2 .7
-1 .0
0.5

1.1
-0 .8
- 0 .5
0.7
-2 .7
-1 .1
0.7

1.0
- 0 .9
- 0 .5
0.6
-2 .8
-1 .1
0.6

1.0
-0 .8
- 0 .9
0.6
-2 .9
-0 .9
0.9

0.9
-0 .8
- 0 .9
0.4
-3 .0
-0 .9
0.9

1.1
-0 .8
- 0 .3
0.7
-3 .0
-1 .0
1.0

1.0
-0 .9
-0 .3
0.6
-3 .1
-1 .1
1.0

2.1
1.2
0.6
-1 .0
- 2 .0
-0 .5
0.3
1.3
1.4
(0
- 3 .6
1.9
3.2
1.5
1.3
1.4
1.3
2.3
2.4
0.8
-1 .2
3.2
- 2 .2
- 0 .2
1.5
1.4
- 0 .7
1.9
0.7
1.8
1.5
1.4
1.8
1.4
1.4
3.1
1.4
1.5
1.3

2.3
1.5
3.0
- 0 .2
- 2 .2
- 0 .5
0.5
1.2
1.3
0.2
-3 .6
2.2
3.2
1.5
1.3
1.4
1.3
2.4
2.1
0.9
-1 .2
3.3
- 2 .2
- 0 .4
1.7
1.7
- 0 .4
2.4
0.6
2.1
1.8
1.7
2.3
1.7
1.8
3.5
1.8
2.0
1.9

2.2
1.5
2.9
- 0 .3
-2 .2
- 0 .6
0.4
1.1
1.3
0.1
- 3 .6
2.1
3.2
1.4
1.3
1.4
1.2
2.3
2.1
0.9
- 1 .3
3.3
-2 .2
- 0 .5
1.6
1.6
- 0 .4
2.3
0.5
2.1
1.8
1.6
2.2
1.7
1.7
3.4
1.9
1.9
1.8

2.6
0.9
- 2 .5
-0 .1
-2 .2
- 0 .9
- 0 .7
1.4
1.1
0.4
- 5 .2
1.7
3.1
1.4
0.8
1.3
0.5
2.0
2.0
0.6
-1 .6
2.6
- 2 .2
- 0 .3
1.2
2.1
- 0 .8
1.9
0.2
1.7
0.9
1.1
0.7
1.5
1.1
2.9
0.8
1.8
1.1

2.5
0.8
- 2 .6
-0 .1
- 2 .2
-1 .0
-0 .8
1.3
1.0
0.3
- 5 .2
1.7
3.0
1.3
0.8
1.2
0.4
1.9
1.9
0.5
-1 .7
2.5
- 2 .2
- 0 .4
1.2
2.0
- 0 .8
1.9
0)
1.6
0.8
1.0
0.7
1.4
1.1
2.8
0.7
1.7
1.0

2.7
1.2
0.2
- 0 .4
- 2 .3
-1 .1
- 0 .5
1.2
0.9
0.6
- 5 .2
2.1
3.1
1.3
0.8
1.2
0.4
2.1
1.6
0.7
- 1 .7
2.8
-2 .2
- 0 .6
1.4
2.3
- 0 .4
2.4
0.2
2.0
1.3
1.4
1.3
1.8
1.5
3.3
1.5
2.2
1.8

2.6
1.}
0.}
- 0 .4
-2 .5
-1 .1
-0 .6
1.1
0.§
0.5
- 5 .2
2.0
3.0
1.2
0.7
1.1
0.3
2.0
1.5
0.6
-1 .9
2.7
-2 .2
-0 .7
1.3
2.2
- 0 .5
2.4
0.1
1.9
1.2
1.3
1.2
1.7
1.4
3.3
1.4
2.1
1.7

1.3
0.7
(>)
-2 .0
- 0 .4
0.3
1.4
1.5
(>)
-3 .6
1.9
3.2
1.6
1.4
1.5
1.3
2.4
2.4
0.9
-1 .1
3.2
- 2 .2
-0 .2
1.6
1. 5
-0 .7
2.0
0.8
1.9
1.5
1.5
1.9
1.5
1.5
3.1
1.5
1.6
1.4

51

Table A - 19. Total civilian employment by detailed industries, average annual rates of change 1965-80 1968-80— Con,
Average annual rates of change 1965-80
Service economy

Average annual rates of change 1968-80

Durables economy

Service economy

Industry name and number

Durables economy

3-percent
unemploy­
ment
).
.
?
.
.
.
).
>.
.
'.
L
.
?
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

.
.

4-percent
unemploy­
ment

3-percent
unemploy­
ment

4-percent
unemploy­
ment

3-percent
unemploy­
ment

4-percent
unemploy­
ment

3-percent
unemploy­
ment

2.5
5.1
3.1
1.9
1.6
2.3
2.2
3.4
1.7
0.4
1.3
1.6
2.4
2.2
1.0

2.5
5. 0
3.0
1.8
1.6
2.2
2.1
3.3
1.6
0.4
1.3
1.6
2.3
2.1
0.9

3.1
5.6
3. 5
1.9
1.9
2.6
3.0
4.1
1.9
0.7
3.3
2.4
3.1
2.3
1. 0

3.0
5.5
3.4
2.4
1.8
2.5
2.9
4.1
1.9
0.6
3.2
2.3
3.0
2.2
0.9

1.8
4.2
2.4
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.0
2.2
0.6
0.3
- 0 .9
1.0
1.7
1.0
1.0

1.7
4.1
2.3
1.1
1.3
1.5
0.9
2.1
0.5
0.2
-1 .0
0.9
1.6
0.9
0.9

2.5
4.9
2.9
1.9
1.7
2.0
2.0
3.2
0.9
0.6
1.5
2.0
2.5
1.2
0.9

2.4
4. 8
2.8
1.8
1.7
1.9
1.9
3.1
0.8
0.5
1.4
1.9
2.5
1.1
0.9

0.9
1.5
2.7
0.9
1.9
2.4
1.4
2.0
4.5
1.9
2.3
3.8
3.5
1.6
4.0
0.5

0.8
1.4
2.6
0.8
1.9
2.3
1.3
2.0
4.4
1.8
2.2
3.7
3.4
1.5
3.9
0.4

0.9
1.4
2.7
0.7
1.9
2.2
1.3
1.8
4.5
1.8
2.0
3.5
3.2
1.6
3.6
0.5

0.8
1.4
2.6
0.7
1.9
2.1
1.2
1.8
4.5
1.7
1.9
3.4
3.1
1.5
3.6
0.4

0.7
1.0
2.2
0.7
1.8
2.0
1.3
1.9
4.2
1.8
2.2
3.3
3.0
0.8
3.5
1.2

0.6
0.9
2.1
0.6
1.7
1.9
1.2
1.8
4.1
1.7
2.1
3.2
2.9
0.7
3.4
1.2

0.7
0.9
2.2
0.6
1.8
1.8
1.2
1.7
4.3
1.6
1.8
2.9
2.6
0.8
3.1
1.2

0.6
0.8
2.1
0.5
1.7
1.7
1.1
1.6
4.2
l.6
1.8
2.9
2.6
0.7
3.1
1.2

Machine shop products______________________________
Office, computing and accounting machines_____________
Service industry machines___________________________
Electric industrial equipment and apparatus--------------------Household appliances______________________ ____ ____
Electric lighting and wiring equipment_________________
Radio, television and communication equipment---------------Electronic components and accessories_________________
Miscellaneous electrical machinery, equipment and supplies.
Motor vehicles and equipment________________________
Aircraft and parts__________________________________
Other transportation equipment_______________________
Scientific and controlling instruments _________________
Optical, ophthalmic and photographic equipment_________
Miscellaneous manufacturing_________________________
Services___________________________________________
Transportation and warehousing______________________
Communications; except radio and TV broadcasting---------Radio and TV broadcasting___________________________
Electric, gas, water and sanitary services_______________
Wholesale and retail trade___________________________
Finance and insurance_______________________________
Real estate and rental________ ____ _______ _________ _
Hotels; personal and repair services, except auto________
Business services. __ ______________________________ }
Research and development___________________________
Automobile repair and service________________________
Amusements_______________________________________
Medical, educational services, and nonprofit organizations..
Government2________________________________________
Federal Government ______ _____________________
State and local government_______________________
Household industry____________________________________

1 Includes wage and salary employees, self employed and unpaid family worker.

Table A-20.

4-percent
unemploy­
ment

2 Includes Government enterprises.

Wage and salary employment by major industry group, 1960, 1965, 1968, and projected 1980
1980

Industry

1960

1965

1968

Services economy

Durables economy

3-percent
unemploy­
ment
Total_________________________________
Agriculture, forestry and fisheries 1______________
Mining___ ______ ___________________________
Construction------------------ ------------ ----------------------Manufacturing_____________ ____ __________ _
Durable___________________ _____________
Nondurable...__________________________
Transportation, communications, and public utilities.
Trade_____________________ _____ ____ ______
Finance, insurance and real estate...... ......................
Services, including households_________________
Government....................................................... ...........
1

Agriculture includes self-employed and unpaid family workers.

52




62,175
5,560
712
2,885
16,795
9,461
7,334
4,004
11,391
2, 669
9, 809
8,353

67,775
4, 528
632
3,186
18, 062
10,407
7,655
4,036
12,716
3,023
11,501
10,091

74,108
4,012
610
3, 267
19, 768
11,626
8,142
4,314
14,081
3, 383
12, 827
11,846

4-percent
unemploy­
ment

3-percent
unemploy­
ment

92,200
3, 030
550
4,600
21,935
13, 015
8, 920
4,740
17,625
4, 260
18, 660
16, 800

91,274
3,000
544
4, 553
21,712
12, 883
8, 829
4,692
17,450
4, 217
18,474
16,632

92, 000
3, 034
548
4,713
22, 817
14, 063
8,754
4,725
17,63S
4,159
18,165
16, 200

4-percent
unemploy­
ment
91,074
3,004
542
4,665
22, 584
13,918
8, 666
4,677
17,464
4,117
17,983
16, 038

Table A -2 1. Wage and salary employment by major industry group, average annual rates of change, 1965-80 and 1968-80
Average annual rates of change
1965-80
Industry

Services economy
unemployment rate

1968-80

Durables economy
unemployment rate

Services economy
unemployment rate

Durables economy
unemployment rate

3 percent
Total___________________________________________________________
Agriculture, forestery and fisheries-------- ------------- - ------------- ------- --- ---------Construction_____________________________ _____ _______________________
Manufacturing--------------------------------------------- ---------- ------------ -----------------------Durable_________________________ _____ ________ ____ ______________
Nondurable.-------- ---------------- ------------------------------------------------ -----------Transportation, communications, and public utilities------ ------------------- -----------..................................
Finance, insurance, and real estate............. ...
Services including households______________________ _____ ______________
Government............................... ........................................................... ............... - ...........

Table A-22.

4 percent

3 percent

4 percent

3 percent

4 percent

3 percent

2.1
-2 .6
-0 .9
2.5
1.3
1. s
1.0
1.1
2.2
2.3
3.3
3. 5

2.0
- 2 .7
-1 .0
2.4
1.2
1.4
1.0
1.0
2.1
2.2
3.2
3.4

2.1
-2 .6
-1 .0
2.6
1.6
2.0
0.9
1.1
2.2
2.2
3.1
3.2

2.0
-2 .7
-1 .0
2.6
1.5
2.0
0.8
1.0
2.1
2.1
3.0
3.1

1.8
- 2 .2
-0 .8
2.6
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
1.8
1.8
2.8
3.0

1.7
-2 .2
-0 .8
2.5
0.8
0.9
0.7
0.7
1.7
1.8
2.7
2.9

1.8
- 2 .2
-0 .8
2.7
1.2
1.6
0.6
0.8
1.8
1.7
2.6
2.6

4 percent
1.7
- 2 .2
- 0 .9
2.6
1.1
1.5
0.5
0.7
1.7
1.6
2.5
2.6

Wage and salary employment, by detailed industry, 1965, 1968, and projected 1980

[in thousands]

Industry

1965

1968

Projected1
1980

Average an nual rate of
cha nge
1965-80

Total nonagricultural employment— .......... ............................................... ......... ......... ......... ..............................
Iron ores.......................... ............................................... ................................................................ .
Copper ores----------- --------------- -------------------------- ----------------------------------- ------- --------- -----Lead, zinc, and all other metal ores________________________________ ________________
Coal mining.-------- ------------------- --------------- ------- --------------- ------------ ------- ----------------------------Bituminous and lignite mining_____________________________________________________
Crude petroleum and natural gas_______ _______ _____ __________________ _____ _________
Crude petroleum and natural gas fields---------------------------- --------------------- ----------------------Oil and gas field services..................................................................................................................
Quarrying and nonmetallic mining ____________________________________________________
Contract construction......................... .......................... ........................................................................ ......... ..
General building contractors....................... ....... ......................................................................................
Heavy construction____________ ______________________________________________________

Durable goods___________ ________________________________________________________________
Ordnance and accessories_____________________________________________________________
Lumber and wood products.. . ____________ _________________________ ____ _____________
Logging camps and logging contractors______________________________________________
Sawmills and planing mills_________________ ____ __________________________________
Millwork, plywood, and related products_____________________________________________
Wooden containers_________ ____________________ ________________________________
Miscellaneous wood products______________________________________________________
Furniture and fixtures _______________________________________________________________
Household furniture______________________________________________________________
All other furniture and fixtures____________________________________________________
Stone, clay, and glass products.................... .................................................................... ......... ...............
Glass and glass products...___________________ _________ ____________ ____ _______ ____
Cement, hydraulic___ ______________________ ____ _______ ____________________________
Pottery and related products._________________________________________________________
Concrete, gypsum, and plaster products ________________________________________________
Other stone and mineral products__________________________________________________
Primary metal industries______ _______ ______________________________________________
Blast furnaces and basic steel products______________________________________________
Iron and steel foundaries_________________________________________________________
Nonferrous foundaries____________________________________________________________
All other primary metal industries__________________________________________________
Fabricated metal products____________________________________________________________
Metal cans_____________________________________________________________________
Cutlery, hand tools and general hardware..______________________________ ___________
Fabricated structural metal products______ ________ ____ __________ ___________ ______
All other fabricated metal products_________________________________________________
Machinery, except electrical___________________________________________________________
Farm machinery and equipment___________________________________________________
Metal working machinery and equipment____ _______________________________________
Special industry equipment___________________________ __________________________
Office, computing, and accounting machines__________________________________________
All other machinery, except electrical_______ ____________________ __________________




60,832. 0
632.0
83.8
25.9
30.0
2 27.9
141.4
131.8
287.1
156.6
130.5
119.6
3,186. 0
994.0
648.5
1, 543. 4
18, 062. 0

67,860. 0
610.0
83.9
25.3
29.9
2 28.7
132.8
126.6
276.3
147.8
128.5
117.1
3,267. 0
986.4
680.2
1,600.6
19, 768. 0

86,600
550
85
25
40
20
90
85
245
130
115
130
4,600
1,200
950
2,400
21,935

10, 406. 0
' 225. 8
606.9
87.7
249.4
164.7
34.4
74.2
430.7
309.2
121.5
628.3
2 147. 7
38.0
69.7
43.4
177.8
130.0
1, 301. 0
657.3
227.0
81.5
335.2
1, 269. 0
61.0
155.1
375.1
677.7
1,735.3
135.7
304.2
193.3
190.5
911.7

11,624.0
341.5
597.8
78.7
232.4
165.6
37.5
83.6
474.2
334.8
139. 5
637.0
2175. 8
34.8
64.3
43.5
181.9
136.7
1,314.3
635.3
225.4
90.0
363.6
1,393.7
66.6
165. 1
411.8
750.3
1,960.5
141.4
342.6
198.2
245.4
1, 033.1

13,015
250
585
70
180
205
25
105
615
415
200
790
215
30
70
35
285
155
1,340
600
250
120
370
1,615
65
175
500
875
2,445
170
380
245
400
1,250

2.4
-0 .9
-0 .2
1.9
- 2 .2
- 3 .1
-3 .0
-1 .1
-1 .2
- 0 .8
0.6
2.5
1.3
2.6
3.1
1.3
1.5
0.7
- 0 .2
-1 .5
-2 .2
1.5
-2 .1
2.3
2.4
2.8
3.4
1.5
2.5
- 1 .5
-1 .4
3.2
1.2
0.2
- 0 .6
0.6
2.6
0.7
1.6
0.4
0.9
1.9
1.7
2.3
1.5
1.5
1.6
0.7
2.1

1968-80
2.1
-0 .9
0.1
-0 .1
2.5
-3 .0
-3 .3
-3 .4
-1 .0
-1 .1
- 0 .9
0.9
2.9
1.7
2.8
3.6
0.9
0.9
- 2 .6
-0 .2
-1 .0
-2 .1
1.8
- 3 .4
1.9
2.2
1.9
3.0
1.9
1.7
-1 .2
0.7
-1 .8
3.8
1.1
0.2
-0 .5
0.9
2.4
0.1
1.2
- 0 .2
0.5
1.6
1.3
1.9
1. 5
0.9
1.8
4.2
1.6

53

Table A-22.

Wage and salary employment, by detailed industry, 1965, 1968, and projected 1980—Continued

[I n thousands]

Industry

1965

1968

Projected 1
1980

Average annual rate of
change
1965-80

1968-80

Electrical machinery, equipment, and supplies.................. .......................................................... .
Electrical transmission and distribution equipment........... .....................................................
Electrical measuring instruments and test equipment................................................... ..............
Power, distribution, and specialty transformers................................... ........... ..............................
Switchgear and switchboard apparatus.............................- ......... ............................................. —
Electrical industrial apparatus.............................................................—.......................... ......................
Motor and generators................................. ........... ................................ .................................................
Industrial controls............................................................................ ..........................................................
Household appliances...................... ....................................................... - ...............................................
Household refrigerator and home and farm freezers......... ......................................................
Household laundry equipment......................................................................................................... .
Electric housewares and fan------------------- --------------------- ----------------------- ------------------------Electric lighting and wiring equipment............................................. ................................................... .
Electric lamps...............................................................- - - ........... - ------------------------------------------Lighting fixtures current-carrying wiring devices........ .................................... ..............................
Noncurrent-carrying wiring devices........................................... ................................................. .
Radio and television receiving sets, except communication types------------------------------ ----------------

1,659.2
170. 0
56.6
46.0
67.5
192. 3
104.8
51.8
165.3
52.8
24.7
40.1
173. 0
31.4
58.4
83.3
133. 4

1,981.9
205.5
66.8
57.5
81.3
211.0
115.3
57.6
178.4
58.4
25.0
43.1
201.9
38.6
64.8
98.5
153.4

2,330
235
90
60
85
245
130
70
210
75
30
55
245
45
75
125
180

2.3
2.2
3.1
1.8
1.5
1.6
1.4
2.0
1.6
2.4
1.3
2.1
2.3
2.4
1.7
2.7
2.0

1.4
1.1
2.5
0.4
0.4
1.3
1.0
1.6
1.4
2.1
1.5
2.1
1.6
1.3
1.2
2.0
1.3

Communication equipment................................................................- .......................- ............................
Telephone and telegraph apparatus--------------------------- -------------------- --------------------------- Radio and television transmitting, signaling, and detection equipment and apparatus........... .
Electronic components and accessories.................................................- .......................... ......................
Radio and television receiving type electronic tubes, except cathoderay transmitting, indus­
trial, and special purpose electronic tubes...................................................... .........................
Semiconductors and related devices electonics and accessories, not elsewhere classified..........
Miscellaneous electrical machinery, equipment and supplies...............................................................
Electrical equipment for internal combustion engines---------------------------------------------------- -

416.8
115.6
301.1
307.1

522.9
130.6
392.3
388.0

580
130
450
505

2.2
0.8
2.7
3.4

0.9

61.5
245.5
101.4
55.4

74.7
313.2
120.8
66.5

60
445
130
65

- 0 .1
4.0
1.7
1.1

-1 .8
3.0
0.6
- 0 .2

Transportation equipment.......................... ..................- ............... - ................................ .......................
Motor vehicles and equipment......... ..............................................................................................
Aircraft and parts..................................................................................... ............... .......................
Aircraft.......................................................................... ..............................................................
Aircraft engines and engine parts............................................... ......... ................................. .
Other aircraft parts and equipment................................................ .......................................
Ship and boat building and repairing........................................................................................ .
Shipbuilding and repairing..----------------------------- ----------------------- --------- ------------------Boat building and repairing................................................. ..............................................—
Railroad equipment...................................................... ......................................................................
All other transportation equipment.............................................................................................
Instruments and related products.......... ...................................................... ........................................
Photographic equipment and supplies......................... ....... ........... ............ ....................................
Watches and clocks----------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------------------------All other instruments and related products................................... ................ .................................
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries------------------------------------------------ ---------- ------------ --------Jewelry, silverware, and plated ware_________________ _________ ____________________
Toys, amusement, and sporting goods______________ ____ ______ ____________________
Costume jewelry, buttons, manufacturing----------------------------------- ------- ------------------ ---------All other miscellaneous manufacturing___ ____ _______ ______________________________
Nondurable goods manufacturing--------------------------------------------- --------- ---------- ------------ --------------- ------- Food and kindred products--------- --------- ------------ ------------ -----------------------------------------------------Meat products___________________________________________________ ______ ________
Dairy products_______ ____________________ _________ ____ _______ ________ _______
Canned and preserved food, except meats.....................................................................................
Grain mill products......................... ...................... ..................... ............................................. .
Bakery products---------------------- ------- ---------------------------------- -----------------------------------------Sugar_____ _____ _______ ___ _____ _____ _______ ____________________ ____ ______
Confectionery and related products..__________ ________ _________ _____________ ____ _
Beverages_______________________ ____ _____________ ___________ ___________ _____
Miscellaneous food and kindred products______ _____ _____ __________________________

1,740.6
842.7
624.2
333.3
187.9
103.1
160.2
128.9
31.2
56.2
57.3
389.0
84.1
31.9
273.0
419.5
45.7
116.7
56.4
200.7
7,656.0
1,756.7
318.4
285.8
260.2
126.9
287.4
36.2
77.2
221.5
143.2

2, 028. 4
869.6
849.5
492.9
213.5
143.1
181.2
141.1
40.0
47.1
81.1
459.9
107.7
34.8
317.3
434.6
51.7
120.2
60.7
202.0
8,144.0
1,780.8
332.9
259.9
277.9
133.5
278.7
37.5
83.4
233.3
143.6

2,010
900
760
410
220
130
205
165
40
50
95
550
150
40
360
485
50
165
55
215
8,920
1,755
330
220
300
125
255
45
70
265
145

Tobacco manufacturers___ ____________ _______ ____ ____ ______________________________
Cigarettes______________________________________ _____________ ________ ____ _____
Cigars______________________________________ ____________ ______________________
All other tobacco manufacturers_________________ ______________________________ : . . .
Textile mill products...____ ____________________________________________ _____________
Knitting______ _____________________ _____ _____________ _____ __________________
Finishing textiles, except knitting_________________________________ _______ _________
Yarn and thread____________________ ______________________ _____________________
All other textile mill products___________________ _______ ________ __________________
Apparel and related products___ __________________________________ ___________________
Men’s and boys’ suits and coats___________________ _____ _____ ____________________
Men’s and boys’ furnishings________________________ _________________________ ____
Women's, misses' and juniors’ outerwear___________ ____ ______ ______ ______ _______
Women's and children's undergarments_________ _______ _______ _____ _______________
Girls’ and children’s outerwear.___________________ ____ ___________________________
All other apparel and related products............................. ................................................... .............

86.8
38.6
24.2
2 24. 0
925.6
229.1
76.9
109.2
510.5
1,354.2
119.3
351.9
417.1
120.8
78.4
266.8

83.8
40.9
20.4
2 22.5
990.6
246.4
82.0
120.7
541.6
1,407.9
131.4
365.5
424.5
125.7
79.8
280.9

65
35
15
15
925
255
80
108
482
1,700
155
475
525
135
85
325

- 0 .4
1.5
1.8
2.0
1.5
0.7
0.5
1.3

-2 .1
- 1 .3
- 2 .6
- 3 .4
-0 .6
0.3
- 0 .2
- 0 .9
- 1 .0
1.6
1.4
2.2
1.8
0.6
0.5
1.2

Paper and allied products________________ ____ _______ ____________________ ____ ______
Converted paper and paper board products_______________________ ______ ____________
Paperboard containers and boxes_____ _______________________________________ _____
All other paper and allied products____________ _____ ____ ___________ _______________
Printing, publishing, and allied industries............................... ......... ................................. ....................
Newspaper publishing and printing.................................................................................................
Periodical publishing and printing__________ _______ ________ ____ __________________
Books._____________ ___________ _________ _____________ _______ _________ _______
Commercial printing......... ......................................................... ......... ............................................
All other printing and publishing.....................................................................................................

639.1
159.6
199.6
280.0
979.4
345.4
69.7
81.3
309.3
173.7

692.5
179.6
222.3
290.5
1, 063.1
357.5
77.0
95.0
338.6
195.1

800
245
245
310
1,240
365
75
150
390
260

1.5
2.9
1.4
0.7
1.6
0.4
0.5
4.2
1.6
2.7

1.2
2.6
0.8
0.5
1.3
0.2
- 0 .2
3.9
1.2
2.4

54




1
.0

0.4
1.3
1.4
1.1
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.7
- 0 .8
3.4
2.3
3.9
1.5
1.9
1.0
0.6
2.3
-0 .2
0.5
1.0
0.2
-1 .7
1.0
- 0 .1
- 0 .8
1.5
- 0 .7
1.3
- 1 .9
-0 .7
- 3 .2
- 3 .2
0.7
0.3

1.1
2.2

0.3
- 0 .9
- 1 .6
0.2
- 0 .9
1.0
1.3
0.5
1.4
1.5
2.8
1.2
1.1
0.9
- 0 .3
2.7
- 0 .8
0.5
0.8
-0 .1
- 1 .4
0.6
- 0 .6
-0 .7
1.5
- 1 .5
1.1

Table A-22.

Wage and salary employment, by detailed industry, 1965, 1968, and projected 1980—Continued

[In thousands!

Industry

1965

1968

Projected 1
1980

Average an nual rate of
cha nge
1965-80

1968-80

907.8
290.1
24. 0
2 60.6
112.7
92.8

1, 026.1
314.2
25.8
66.0
126.6
95.8

1,185
345
25
80
135
105

1.8
1.0
0.3
1.9
1.2
0.8

1.2
-0 .8
- 0 .3
1.6
0.5
0 8

215.6
92.4
109.3
136.5
105.6
116.8
39.8
47.5
69.7
56.3
39.4
116.9
187.0
150.5
36.4
557.1
113.5
182.8
260.8
355.5
30.7
233.4
91.4

275
115
140
185
145
150
50
60
75
70
50
85
155
115
40
760
105
215
440
335
25
225
85

2.4
2.1
2.5
3 0
3.4
2.4
1.8
3.1
0.8
1.8
1.5
0.3
-1 .1
-1 .7
0.9
3.2
0.2
1.5
5.4
- 0 .3
-1 .6
- 0 .3
- 0 .1

2 1
1.8
2.1

Pharmaceutical preparations----------------------------------------------- ; - - 7-------: ...........- ------------Soap detergents, and cleaning preparations, perfumes, cosmetics and other toilet preparations----Soap, and other detergents, except specialty cleaners................ .................................................
Perfumes, cosmetics, and the other toilet products------------------------------------------------- ----------Paints, varnishes, laquers, enamels, and allied products------------------------------------------------- --------Agricultural chemicals________________________________________________________________
Fertilizers, complete and mixing only------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------Gum and wood and other chemicals---------------------------------------------- --------- --------------- --------Petroleum refining and related industries------------------------------------------------------------------------------Petroleum refining____________________ ___________ ________ _____ ______ ___ _____ All other petroleum and coal products-----------------------------------------------------------------------------Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products..................... ................................... ......... .................... .
Tires and innertubes__________________________ ______ ____ ____________ _____ _____
Other rubber products___________________________________ _____ ___________________
Miscellaneous plastic products------------- --------- -------------------------------- ------------------------------Leather and leather products--------------------------------- ------- - ----------------- --------------------- ------- -----Leather tanning and finishing------------------ --------------- --------- ----------------------------- --------------Footwear, except rubber---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------ All other leather products-------------- ---------- ----------------------- ---------------------------- -----------------

193.7
84.0
96.6
118.1
87.4
105.6
38.4
38.2
66.3
53.2
39.7
80.8
182.9
148.1
34.8
470.8
101.8
171.6
197. 5
352.9
31.6
234. 5
86.8

2.7
2.1
1.9
2.0
0.6
1.8
2.0
-2 .7
-1 .6
- 2 .3
0.8
2.6
-0 .7
1.4
4.5
- 0 .5
- 1 .7
- 0 .3
- 0 .6

Transportation, communication and public utilities------------------- ------------ ----------------------------------------Transportation----------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Railroad transportation------------------ ------------------------------------------------ ------------ ------------------Local and interurban passenger transportation-----------------------------------------------------------------Local and suburban passenger transportation------------------------------------------------------------Taxicabs__________________________________________________________ _____ ___
Intercity and rural highway passenger transportation--------------------------------------------------Motor freight transportation and warehousing--------------------------------Trucking_____________________________ _____ ____________ __________ _________
Warehousing____________________________________ ____ ______ - ..............................
Transportation by air--------- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- - - .............
Air transportation, common carrier------------- -------------------------------------------------------------Pipeline transportation--------------------------- ------- ------- - ..................... ; ---------------------------------Water transportation and transportation services, not elsewhere classified-----------------------------

4, 036. 0
2, 531. 5
735.3
268.8
82.5
109.5
41.8
963.5
881.5
82.0
229.0
205.9
19. 5
315.4

4,313.0
2,674. 5
661.9
281.5
82.0
110.7
43.1
1, 046.1
961.2
84.8
328.8
297.3
18.8
337.4

4,740
2, 900
500
295
85
105
60
1,235
1,145
90
480
440
15
375

1.1
0.9
- 2 .6
0.6
0.2
-0 .3
2.4
1.7
1.8
0.6
5.1
5.2
-1 .7
1.2

0.8
0.7
- 2 .4
0.4
0.3
-0 .4
2.8
1.4
1.5
0.5
3.2
3.3
- 1 .9
0.8

Communication..---------------------------------------- --------------------------- ------- ---------------------------------Telephone communication--------------------- ---------- ------------ ------- ---------------------------------- -----Telegraph communication----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Radio and television broadcasting. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------Electric, gas, and sanitary services------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------Electric companies and systems-------------- ------- --------------------------------------------------------Gas companies and systems------------------ ---------- ----------------------------------------------------------Combined utility systems----------------------------------------------------------------- ------- ---------------------Water, steam, and sanitary systems----- ------- --------------------------------- --------------------------------

880.8
735.2
31.8
106.9
623.4
253.0
153.6
176.5
40.4

985.6
816.5
32.8
123.0
652.9
268.1
158.3
180.2
46.2

1,130
935
25
160
710
290
165
185
70

1.7
1.7
-1 .6
2.7
0.9
0.9
0.5
0.3
3.7

1.1
1.1
-2 .3
2.2
0.7
0.7
0.3
0.2
3.5

Wholesale and retail trade________________________________________________________________
Wholesale trade. ___________________________________________________________________
Motor vehicles and automotive equipment___________________________________________
Drugs, chemicals, and allied products . . ___________________________________________
Dry goods and apparel___________________________________________________________
Apparel and accessories stores_______________________ — ----------------------------------------Furniture and appliance stores.____ _______________________________________________
Eating and drinking places________________________________________________________
Miscellaneous retail stores____________________________________________________________
Drug stores_________________________________________________________________
Farm and general supply stores and fuel and ice dealers and other miscellaneous retail stores
Groceries and related products_____________________________________________________
Electrical goods, hardware and plumbing and heating equipment________________________
Machinery, equipment and supplies__________________________________ ______________
Farm products, raw materials and miscellaneous______________________________________
Retail trade___________________________________________
______________________

12,716.0
3,312.0
255.3
198.0
139.4
640.2
409.6
1,987.9
1,060.3
401.0
2 659. 3
510.7
406. 1
579.4
2 1,223.1
9, 404. 0
539. 3
1,873.4
312.7

14, 081.0
3,618.0
288.9
221.1
146.4
695.6
434. 1
2,296. 4
1,165.1
432.2
2 732. 9
534.4
453.7
698.2
2 1, 275.3
10,464.0
535.6
2,168. 6
314. 1

17,625
4,600
400
275
185
730
500
2,900
1,400
550
850
555
625
1,010
1,550
13, 025
535
2,895
335

2.2
2.3
3.0
2.2
1.9
0.9
1.3
2.6
1.9
2.1
1.7
0.6
2.9
3.8
1.6
2.3

1.9
2.0
2.8
1.8
2.0
0.4
1.2
2.0
1.5
2.0
1.2
0.3
2.7
3.1
1.6
1.8

2.9
0.5

2.4
0.5

2 1, 560. 7
1,468.6
1,424.2
902.3
521.9

2 1,854.5
1,622.5
1,545.4
959.8
585.6

2, 560
2, 035
2, 030
1,300
730

3.4
2.2
2.4
2.5
2.3

2.7
1.9
2.3
2.6
- 1 .9

3, 023. 0
1,250.7
' 792. 0
326.9
131.8

3,383. 0
1,456.4
'915.4
350.6
190.4

4,260
1,920
1,220
500
200

2.3
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.8

1.9
2.3
2.4
3.0
0.4

Chemicals and allied products------------------- ------- -------------------- ---------- -----------------------------------Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals.................... ...................................................- .............
Alkalies and chlorine___________________________ ____ __________________ - ..............
Industrial gases, cyclic crudes, and pigments-------- ------------ -------------------------------- ------------Industrial organic chemicals, not elsewhere classified-----------------------------------------------------Industrial inorganic chemicals, not elsewhere classified — -------------------- ---------------------Plastic materials and synthetic resins, synthetic rubber, synthetic and other man-made fibers
except glass__________________________________ - - - - - - - ............... .......... .................--Plastics materials, synthetic resins, and (non-vulcamzable elastomers)-------------------------Cellulosic man-made fibers, except celiulosic------------------------------------------------- --------- --

General merchandise stores_______________________________________________________
Limited price variety stores__________________________________________ ___ _____
Department stores, mail order houses, merchandise vending machine operators and miscellaneous general merchandise stores_____________________________________ _________
Food stores___________________________________________ ____ ____________________
Auto dealers and service stations___________________________________________________
Motor vehicle and other vehicle and accessory dealers_____________________________
Gasoline service stations______________________________________________________
Finance, insurance and real estate______ ___________________________________________________
Finance___________________________
Banking__________________________________________________________
Credit agencies other than banks. _______________________________________ _ . . . __
Security and commodity brokers, dealers exchange and services_________________________




55

Table A-22.

Wage and salary employment, by detailed industry, 1965, 1968, and projected 1980—Continued

[In thousands]

Industry

1965

1968

Projected >
1980

Average annual rate of
change
1965-80

1,126.2
893.4
232.8

1968-80

1,240.4
985.2
255.2

1,525
1,200
325

2.0
2.0
2.2

648.0

685.7

815

1.5

1.5

Combinations of real estate, insurance, loans, law offices, and holding and other investment
companies_________________________ ________ - ------- ---------------------------------- --------Services and miscellaneous---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------- ------- --------Hotels, rooming houses, camps and other lodging places----------------------------------------------------------Hotels, tourist courts, and motels-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Other lodging places---------------------------------------- ------- ------- ------------------ ------- ------------------

568.9

608.6

730

1.7

1.5

79.1
9, 087.0
659.1
584.2
2 74.9

77.1
10, 592. 0
719.4
645.3
2 74.1

85
16, 090
1,025
940
85

0.5
3.9
3.0
3.2
0.8

0.8
3.5
3.0
3.2
1.1

Personal services ------------------------------------------------------------ --------------- ---------------------------------Laundries, laundry services and cleaning and dyeing plants-----------------------------------------------Miscellaneous business services-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Advertising_______________ ______ ________ ______ ____________________ - .....................
Consumer credit reporting and collection agencies------------------------------------------------------------Motion pictures----------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------- -------------------Motion picture filming and distributing---------------------------------------------------------------------------Motion picture theaters and services--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

985.4
548.4
1,109.1
112.5
65.7
185.1
48.5
136.6

1,031.3
548.0
1,398.0
117.1
72.3
196.8
52.6
144.3

1,370
650
2,910
135
100
225
70
155

2.2
1.1
6.6
1.2
2.8
1.3
2.5
0.8

2.4
1.4
6.3
1.2
2.7
1.1
2.4
0.6

Medical and other health services-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Hospitals_______________________________________________________________________
Legal services________________________ ____ ______________, -------------------------------------------Educational services------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Elementary and secondary schools (private)---------------------------------------------------------------------Higher educational services (private)------------------------------------------------------------------------------Miscellaneous services_______________________________________________________________
Engineering and architectural services.-. -----------------------------------------------------------------------

2,079.5
1, 356. 5
181.5
924.6
315.6
544.3
449.0
242.4

2,637.7
1,653.9
207.7
1,065.9
359.4
618.8
574.1
287.3

4,325
2,525
325
1,515
460
895
900
500

5.0
4.2
4.0
3.3
2.5
3.4
4.7
4.9

4.2
3.6
3.8
3.0
2.1
3.2
3.8
4.9

10, 091.0
2,378.0
2,346.7
938.5
614.2
793.9
25.4
5.9
7,714.0
3,799.0
3,914.5
1,995.9
679.1
1,316.8
5,717.6
3,119.9
2, 597.7

11,846.0
2,737.0
2,701.9
1,107.1
723.5
871.4
28.1
6.6
9,109.0
4,693.6
4,415.5
2,448.8
958.0
1,490.8
6,660.3
3,735.6
2,924.7

16,800
3, 000
2,955
925
935
1,095
35
10
13,800
7,600
6,200
3, 500
1,400
2,100
10, 300
6,200
4,100

3.5
1.6
1.5

3.0
0.8
0.8
- 1 .5
2.2
1.9
1.8
3.5
3.5
4.1
2.9
3.0
3.2
2.9
3.7
4.3
2.9

Insurance carriers and insurance agents brokers and services---------------------------------------------- Insurance carriers---------------------------------------------------------------------- --------- ------- ----------------Insurance agents, brokers, and services-------------------------------------------------------- -----------------Real estate, combinations of real estate, insurance, loans, law offices, and holding and other
investment companies--------------------------------------- --------- ----------------- --------- -------------------------

Federal government------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Executive______________________________________________________________________
Post Office Department___________________________ ____________________________
Other agencies______________________________________________________________
Legislative--------------------- ------- -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Judicial ________ _____________________________________________________________
State and local government_______________________________ ____________________________
State and local education_____________________________________________________
Other State and local government_______________________________________________
State government..____ _____________________ ____________________________________
State education______________________________________________________________
Other State government_______________________________________________________
Local government________________________________________________________________
Local education______________________________________________________________
Other local government_______________________________________________________

2.8
2.2
2.2
3.6
4.0
4.7
3.1
3.8
4.9
3.2
4.0
4.7
3.1

1.7
1.7
2.0

1 Services economy, 3-percent unemployment.
2 Annual average data are not published for ttvs industry classification. The figure was obtained by subtracting the sum of employment in individual industries for which data
are published from total published employment in the major industry group.
Note: Sum of individual items may not add to totals either because of rounding or because data are not presented for all industries.

56




Table A-23.

Comparison of BLS employment data with total labor force 1960, 1968, and projected 1980

[In thousands]
1960
72,142
2,514
69, 628
3,852
i 65,776
5,458
6, 367
35
758
383
221
2,443
317
2,210
615
2,265
51,071
4 54, 234
8, 353
45, 881
3,163

Difference”between BLS nonagricultural number of jobs and census nonagricultural wage and salary employment_____________
1 As reported by the U.S. Bureau of the Census in the Monthly Report on the Labor
Force.
2 Includes agricultural services.
3 Data for 1968 and 1980 reflect a change in method of counting self-employed workers.

Table A-24.

1968
82,272
3, 535
78,737
2.817
i 75,920
3.817
5,102
18
664
254
192
1,606
261
2,107
484
1,916
64, 601
4 67,860
11,846
56,015
3,259

1980
100,727
2,700
98,027
2,941
95, 086
3, 000
6,000
20
760
310
200
1,785
355
2,570
700
2,150
83, 236
86, 600
16,800
69,800
3i 364

(See Employment and Earnngs and Monthy Report of the Labor Force, Vol. 13, No. 8, February
1967, p. 7.)
4 As reported in the BLS survey of establishments.
Note: Sum of individual items may not add to totals due to rounding.

Employment by major occupational group, 1968 and projected 1980 requirements

[In thousands]
1968 employment

Projected 1980
requirements

Occupational group
Number

Percent

Number

Change 1968-80

Percent

Number

Percent

Total___________________________________________________________ ________

75,920

100.0

95,100

100.0

19,180

25.0

White-collar workers_______________ __________ . ---------------------- ------------ ------- ---------Professional and technical__________ ____ _______ _____________ . . . . ____ . . .
Managers, officials, and proprietors-.. _____________ ____ _______ _____________
Clerical workers______________________ . . . . . . ---------------- . . . ---------- . . ..
Sales workers_______ ____ ________________________ ____________ _________

35, 551
10, 325
7,776
12,803
4,647

46.8
13.6
10.2
16.9
6.1

48, 300
15, 500
9, 500
17,300
6, 000

50.8
16.3
10.0
18.2
6.3

12, 749
5,175
1,724
4,497
1,353

35.9
50.1
22.2
35.1
29.1

Blue-collar workers.. ____________________________________ ______ _ ___________ . .
Craftsmen and foremen____________________ ________________________________
Operatives_______________________ _______________________ _______________
Nonfarm laborers_____________ _____________________________ . . . . . ______

27, 525
10, 015
13,955
3, 555

36.3
13.2
18.4
4.7

31,100
12,200
15,400
3, 500

32.7
12.8
16.2
3.7

3, 575
2,185
1,445
-5 5

13.0
21.8
10.4
- 1 .5

Service workers________ ______. _____ _____________________________________ _____

9,381

12.4

13,100

13.8

3,719

39.6

Farm workers________________________________________________ __________________

3, 464

4.6

2,600

2.7

-8 6 4

-3 3 .2




57

Table A-25.

Employment and average annual openings in selected occupations, 1968 and projected 1980 requirements
Average
annual
openings
1968-802

Employment
1968

Require­
ments
1980

Total............................. .

75,920,000

95,100,000

25 3,990,000

PROFESSIONAL, TECHNICAL
AND RELATED WORKERS..

10,325,000

15,500, 000

50

Occupations

Percent
change
1968-80

777,000

Business administration and
related professions
Accountant...............................
Personnel worker__________
Public relations worker______
Engineering.......... .......................

500, 000
110, 000
100, 000

720, 000
155, 000
165, 000

43
43
64

33, 000
6,900
8,800

1,100, 000

1, 500, 000

40

53, 000

100, 000
16, 000
100, 000
307. 000
75, 000
660, 000

130, 000
33, 500
190, 000
469, 000
120, 000
1, 000, 000

30
109
90
53
60
52

4,900
2,400
12,800
20, 800
7, 300
65, 000

18, 000

33, 000

83

2, 300

Health service occupations
Dentist........ .............................
Dental hygienist____________
Medical laboratory workers *..
Physician (M.D.’s and D.O.’s).
Radiologic technologist............
Registered nurse___________
'
; and
ilogist.
Natural scientists
Chemist__________________
Physicist_________ ____ ___
Life scientist__________ ___
Oceanographer____ ____ ___

130, 000
45, 000
170, 000
5,200

200, 000
75, 000
245, 000
9,700

56
64
41
85

8,800
3, 200
9,900
500

Teachers
Elementary school teachers...
Secondary school teachers___
College and university
teachers...____ _________

1,230,000
940, 000

1,270, 000
1, 065, 000

3.3
14

56, 300
40, 000

286, 000

395, 000

38

17, 000

Technician occupations
Engineering and science_____
Draftsmen______ ____ _____

620, 000
295, 000

890, 000
435,000

43
48

31, 000
15,300

Other professional and related
workers
Lawyer........ ............................
Librarians..................................
Mathmetician______________
Pilot and copilot................ .
Programer.._____ _________
Social worker..____________
Systems analyst____ _______

Occupations

Employment
1968

Require­
ments
1980

Percent
change
1968-80

Average
annual
openings
1968-802

SALES WORKERS-Continued
Retail trade salesworkers.
Security salesmen...
Wholesale trade salesworkers.
CRAFTSMEN, FOREMEN AND
KINDRED WORKERS___

2,800,000
135 000
530; 000

3,460 000

24

695| 000

30

10, 015, 000

12,200, 000

22

175, 000
869, 000

230, 000

31

25,200

Building trades
Bricklayers...
Carpenters_____ _____
Electricians (maintenance and
construction)___
Excavating, grading and road
machinery operators. .
Painters and paperhangers___
Plumbers and pipefitters3___

430, 000

575,000

34

285, 000
430, 000
330, 000

425, 000
560' 000
475, 000

49
30
44

100, 000
135, 000
205, 000
115, 000

140, 000
230, 000
260, 000
200, 000

40
70
27
74

175, 000
825, 000

220, 000
1, 000, 000

26
21

125, 000

145, 000

16

19 500

Mechanics and repairmen
Air conditioning, refrigeration and heating mechanics.
Airplane mechanics..................
Appliance servicemen_______
Business machine servicemen.
Industrial machinery
repairmen____________ _
Motor vehicle mechanics____
Television and radio service
technicians__________

* nn
>o

q’ 700
a7gnn

3,000

Printing
Compositors and typesetters <___................
OPERATIVES____

190, 000

180, 000

5

3 200

13,955, 000

15,400, 000

10

426, 000

1, 200, 000
640, 000

1,450, 000
800, 000

22
25

2\, 600

785, 000

850, 000

8

000

400, 000
585, 000

475, 000
635, 000

16
9

10 900
19’ 200

Driving Occupations
Local truckdrivers__________
Over-the-road truckdrivers___

37 000

Other manual occupations
270, 000
106,000
65, 000
52, 000
175, 000
160, 000
150, 000

335, 000
135, 000
110,000
114, 000
400, 000
270, 000
425, 000

23
29
60
117
129
67
183

14, 500
8, 200
4,600
1,800
23,000
16, 700
27, 000

Assemblers____
Gasoline service station
attendants.......... ...................
Inspectors (manufacturing)...
Welders and oxygen and arc
cutters_________________

480, 000

675, 000

NONFARM LABORERS...

3, 555, 000

3, 500, 000

41
-2

23 O O
O
60,000

MANAGERS, OFFICIALS
AND PROPRIETORS............. ..

7,776, 000

9,500, 000

22

380, 000

SERVICE WORKERS................. .

9, 381,000

13,100, 000

CLERICAL WORKERS............. ..

12, 803, 000

17, 300, 000

35

911,000

Private household workers______

1, 700, 000

1,980, 000

400, 000
230, 000
1,200, 000
730, 000
100, 000
175, 000

512, 000
337, 000
1, 500, 000
1,110, 000
150, 000
400, 000

29
46
19
51
50
129

29, 500
20, 000
78, 000
69, 000
9, 000
20,400

Food service workers. ..............
670, 000
960, 000

900, 000
1, 240, 000

33
28

48 000
67’ 666

800, 000
320, 000

1, 500, 000
600, 000

88
88

100 000
48’ 000

210, 000
475, 000

260, 000
685i 000

24
43

12 800
38; 000

180, 000
285, 000

245, 000
360, 000

34
28

7,700
15,000

Bank clerks...____ ________
Bank tellers_______________
Bookkeeping workers_______
Cashiers_______ ____ _____
Dental assistant................ .......
Electronic computer operating
personnel.._____________
Office machine operators____
Receptionists______________
Shipping and receiving clerks.
Stenographers and
secretaries______________
Telephone operators________
Typists...... ................................

325, 000
240, 000
370, 000

460, 000
400, 000
465, 000

39
66
25

25, 000
30, 000
15, 400

2, 650, 000
400, 000
700, 000

3,650, 000
480, 000
930, 000

37
21
37

237, 000
28, 000
63, 000

SALES WORKERS...........................

4,647, 000

6, 000, 000

29

263,000

Automobile salesmen_______
Insurance agents and brokers.
Manufacturers’ salesmen........
Real estate salesmen and
brokers..................................

120, 000
410, 000
500, 000

145, 000
480, 000
735, 000

21
17
47

4,400
16, 200
32, 000

225, 000

270, 000

20

14, 200

Cooks and chefs___________
Waiters and waitresses______
Hospital attendants_________
Licensed practical nurses. . . .




121, 000

Personal service workers
Barbers..............................
Cosmetologists..........................
Protective service workers
Firefighters________ .
Municipal police officers_____
Other service workers
Building custodians..................

58

752,000

Health service workers

FARM WORKERS.........................
1 Includes medical technologist, technician, and assistant2 Growth and replacement openings; does not include transfers.
3 Also called—operating engineer (construction machinery operations).

40

1,100, 000

1,460, 000

33

80, 000

3,464, 000

2,600, 000

-3 3

25,000

*Also called—composing room occupations.

Note: Percent increase based on unrounded estimates.

Table A-26.

Occupations that are expected to grow rapidly during the 1970’s
Employment

Occupation
1968
150,000
175,000
175, 000
52, 000
16, 000
115,000
100, 000
800, 000
320, 000
5,200
18, 000

Table A-2 7 .

Projected 1980
425.000
400.000
400.000
114, 000
33, 500
225, 000
190, 000
1,500, 000
600, 000
9,700
33,000

Average annual
rate of change,
1968-80

9.1
7.1
7.1
6.7
6.4
5.8
5.5
5.4
5.4
5.3
5.2

Occupations that are expected to grow slowly during the 1970’s
Employment

Occupation
1968
Insurance agents and brokers......... ........... .................................. ............................................................. .............
Gasoline service station attendants________________ ____________________ ______ _________________
TV and radio service technicians______________________________________________________________ _
Carpenters................... ........... ......................................... ......................................................................................
1n s p e c t o r s (manufacturing)________________________ ______ ___________________ _______________
Assemblers.__________ _________________________ ________________________ _____ ________
Elementary school teachers.................................................................................................... .......... ....... ..............
Nonfarm laborers..___________________________ _____________________ _______ _________________
Compositors and typesetters______________________________ _____ _____________________________ .
Farm workers.._____________________________ ________ ____________ __________




Projected 1980

410,000
400, 000
125.000
869, 000
585.000
785.000
1,230,000
3,555,000
190, 000
3, 464, 000

480.000
475.000
145.000
1,075,000
635, 000
850.000
1.270.000
3.500.000
180,000
2,600,000

Average annual
rate of change,
1968-80

1.3
1.2
1.2
2.2
0.7
-0.7
0 3
- 0 .1
-0 .5
-3.4

59
U. S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING O FFICE : 1970 O - 384-657







U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS
WASHINGTON, D.C.
O FFIC IA L




20212

BU SIN E SS

I

T H IR D

C LA SS

M A IL