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EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 7:00 P.M. EST, TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 29, 2016 Technical: Media: Kevin Furlong (BEA) Jeannine Aversa (BEA) Tanya Harris Joshua (OIA) (301) 278-9075 (301) 278-9003 (202) 208-6008 BEA 16-63 territories@bea.gov Jeannine.Aversa@bea.gov Tanya_Joshua@ios.doi.gov GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT FOR THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS INCREASES FOR THE FOURTH YEAR IN A ROW CAPITOL HILL, SAIPAN (November 30, 2016) -- Today, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is releasing estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) for the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI) for 2015, in addition to estimates of GDP by industry and compensation by industry for 2014.1 These estimates were developed under the Statistical Improvement Program funded by the Office of Insular Affairs (OIA) of the U.S. Department of the Interior. Revised estimates of GDP for 2013 and 2014, as well as revised estimates of GDP by industry and compensation by industry for 2013, are presented in this release. Gross Domestic Product for 2015 The estimates of GDP for the CNMI show that real GDP–GDP adjusted to remove price changes– increased 3.5 percent in 2015 after increasing 2.8 percent in 2014 (see Table 1.3). For comparison, real GDP for the United States (excluding the territories) increased 2.6 percent in 2015 after increasing 2.4 percent in 2014. 1 These estimates are based on limited source data and are subject to revision. The growth in the CNMI economy reflected widespread increases among the components of GDP (see Table 1.4). These increases were partly offset by an increase in imports of goods and services, which is a subtraction item in the calculation of GDP. Private fixed investment was the largest contributor to economic growth in 2015, increasing over 60 percent. This growth reflected investments by the gaming industry, including a temporary training facility and an integrated casino resort under construction in Garapan. Territorial government spending increased, reflecting recovery operations and reconstruction following Typhoon Soudelor. The typhoon struck the CNMI in early August 2015, damaging the local power plant and the island’s power distribution systems. Exports of services, which consists primarily of spending by tourists, grew for the fourth year in a row. The increase reflected growth in visitor arrivals from Korea and China. Gross Domestic Product by Industry and Compensation by Industry for 2014 The estimates of GDP by industry for the CNMI show that the private sector was the source of the increase in real GDP in 2014 (see Table 2.5). The largest contributor to growth was the accommodations and amusement sector, reflecting growth in spending by tourists. The compensation by industry estimates, which are measured in current dollars, show trends in compensation for major industries (see Table 2.6). Total compensation increased in 2014, reflecting increases in all sectors except the federal government. The accompanying tables present estimates for GDP and its major components, GDP by industry, and compensation by industry. Also included in this release are estimates for the major components of gross domestic income. Revisions to GDP Estimates for 2013 and 2014 that were released on February 29, 2016 have been revised in order to incorporate improvements to source data, including: newly available data for territorial government spending from government financial statements, and updated international trade data provided by the CNMI government. The revised estimates show a similar pattern of inflation-adjusted growth as the previously published estimates (see Table 1.7). Future directions Moving forward, an agreement between OIA and BEA will extend and improve the estimates of GDP for the CNMI. The information provided by the CNMI government will continue to be critical to the successful production of these estimates. BEA currently plans to release GDP estimates for 2016 in the summer of 2017. GDP by industry and compensation by industry estimates for 2015 will also be released at the same time. -2- Additional Information total CNMI expenditures that is accounted for by goods and services provided by the rest of the world. Resources Stay informed about BEA developments by reading the BEA blog, signing up for BEA’s email subscription service, or following BEA on Twitter @BEA_News. Historical time series for these estimates can be accessed at BEA’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the U.S. Territories. Access BEA data by registering for BEA’s Data Application Programming Interface (API). For more on BEA’s statistics, see our monthly online journal, the Survey of Current Business. BEA's news release schedule Government consumption expenditures and gross investment, or “government spending,” measures the portion of GDP that is accounted for by the government sector. Government consumption expenditures consists of spending by government to produce and provide services to the public. Gross investment consists of spending by government for fixed assets that directly benefit the public or that assist government agencies in their production activities. Gross domestic income (GDI) is the sum of incomes earned and costs incurred in the production of GDP. In national economic accounting, GDP and GDI are conceptually equal. Definitions Current-dollar estimates are valued in the prices of the period when the transactions occurred—that is, at “market value.” Also referred to as “nominal estimates” or as “current-price estimates.” Gross domestic product (GDP) is the value of the goods and services produced by the CNMI economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production. GDP is also equal to the sum of personal consumption expenditures, private fixed investment, net exports of goods and services, and government consumption expenditures and gross investment. Real values are inflation-adjusted estimates—that is, estimates that exclude the effects of price changes. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE), also referred to as “consumer spending,” measures the goods and services purchased by “persons”—that is, by households and by nonprofit institutions serving households (NPISHs)—who are resident in CNMI. Statistical Conventions Quantities and prices. Quantities, or “real” volume measures, and prices are expressed as index numbers with a specified reference year equal to 100 (currently 2009). Quantity and price indexes are calculated using a Fisher chain-weighted formula that incorporates weights from two adjacent years. “Real” dollar series are calculated by multiplying the quantity index by the current-dollar value in the reference year (2009) and then dividing by 100. Private fixed investment (PFI) measures spending by private businesses, nonprofit institutions, and households on fixed assets in the CNMI economy. Fixed assets consist of structures, equipment, and software that are used in the production of goods and services. Chained-dollar values are not additive because the relative weights for a given period differ from those of the reference year. Net exports of goods and services is the difference between exports of goods and services and imports of goods and services. Exports measures the portion of total CNMI production of goods and services that is provided to the rest of the world. Imports measures the portion of -3- List of News Release Tables Table 1.1. Table 1.2. Table 1.3. Table 1.4. Table 1.5. Table 1.6. Table 1.7. Table 2.1. Table 2.2. Table 2.3. Table 2.4. Table 2.5. Table 2.6. Gross Domestic Product Real Gross Domestic Product, Chained Dollars Percent Change From Preceding Year in Real Gross Domestic Product Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product Percent Change From Preceding Year in Prices for Gross Domestic Product and Price Indexes for Gross Domestic Product Gross Domestic Income Revisions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product Value Added by Industry Value Added by Industry as a Percentage of GDP Real Value Added by Industry Percent Changes in Real Value Added by Industry Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product by Industry Compensation of Employees by Industry -4- Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands 1. Domestic Product and Income Table 1.1. Gross Domestic Product [Millions of dollars] Line Gross domestic product 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 1 938 939 795 799 733 751 780 836 922 Personal consumption expenditures Goods Durable goods Nondurable goods Services Net foreign travel 2 3 4 5 6 7 480 358 137 222 409 -287 504 387 142 245 427 -310 431 332 119 213 381 -283 442 354 130 224 398 -309 451 366 132 234 378 -293 469 399 143 256 427 -357 486 438 166 272 459 -411 539 470 186 284 510 -441 545 476 194 282 521 -453 Private fixed investment 8 79 83 85 77 74 79 90 142 227 Net exports of goods and services Exports Goods Services Imports Goods Services 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 47 627 333 293 579 498 81 29 488 172 316 459 394 66 -47 312 23 289 360 307 53 -70 335 19 316 405 346 59 -132 317 17 300 449 384 65 -98 380 16 364 478 409 69 -109 435 17 418 544 467 77 -159 463 15 448 622 534 87 -197 474 14 460 671 556 116 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Territorial 16 17 18 332 13 319 324 15 308 327 20 306 349 22 327 340 22 318 301 21 279 312 20 292 314 22 292 347 29 318p NOTE. Detail may not add to total because of rounding. (p) The fiscal year 2015 CNMI government-wide audited financial statements were not available in time for incorporation into the estimates of GDP. Preliminary estimates of central government spending reflect information on the CNMI government’s fiscal year budgets and on federal grant awards. -5- Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands Table 1.2. Real Gross Domestic Product, Chained Dollars [Millions of chained (2009) dollars] Line Gross domestic product 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 1 1,084 964 795 806 744 748 765 787 814 Personal consumption expenditures Goods Durable goods Nondurable goods Services Net foreign travel 2 3 4 5 6 7 516 395 149 246 434 -313 509 400 149 251 433 -324 431 332 119 213 381 -283 444 349 127 222 389 -294 430 338 121 217 354 -263 440 363 131 232 390 -313 457 402 155 247 414 -356 502 424 173 252 444 -365 512 440 188 253 455 -381 Private fixed investment 8 80 82 85 78 72 76 87 138 223 Net exports of goods and services Exports Goods Services Imports Goods Services 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 147 747 396 320 600 511 88 48 476 138 331 428 361 67 -47 312 23 289 360 307 53 -56 320 19 300 376 320 56 -82 284 15 269 367 308 59 -52 333 14 319 384 323 61 -61 377 15 362 438 368 70 -116 385 13 371 501 423 79 -200 399 12 387 599 496 104 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Territorial 16 17 18 348 13 335 326 16 310 327 20 306 341 21 320 327 21 307 286 20 265 289 19 270 281 20 261 309 26 283p Addenda: Population (thousands)1 Per capita real GDP (chained dollars) 19 20 59.3 18,280 57.6 16,736 55.5 14,324 53.5 15,065 52.2 14,253 51.4 14,553 51.2 14,941 51.5 15,282 52.3 15,564 (1) Source: U.S. Census Bureau (p) The fiscal year 2015 CNMI government-wide audited financial statements were not available in time for incorporation into the estimates of GDP. Preliminary estimates of central government spending reflect information on the CNMI government’s fiscal year budgets and on federal grant awards. -6- Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands Table 1.3. Percent Change From Preceding Year in Real Gross Domestic Product [Percent] Line Gross domestic product 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 1 -11.1 -17.5 1.3 -7.7 0.6 2.3 2.8 3.5 Personal consumption expenditures Goods Durable goods Nondurable goods Services Net foreign travel 2 3 4 5 6 7 -1.4 1.3 0.2 2.0 -0.3 …….. -15.4 -17.1 -20.2 -15.3 -11.9 …….. 3.0 5.1 6.7 4.1 2.0 …….. -3.2 -3.0 -5.0 -1.9 -9.1 …….. 2.4 7.4 8.5 6.8 10.4 …….. 3.9 10.7 18.1 6.6 6.0 …….. 9.9 5.5 11.7 1.8 7.5 …….. 1.9 3.7 8.5 0.5 2.3 …….. Private fixed investment 8 2.1 4.4 -8.9 -6.9 5.6 14.4 57.5 61.8 Net exports of goods and services Exports Goods Services Imports Goods Services 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 …….. -36.3 -65.2 3.4 -28.6 -29.3 -24.3 …….. -34.4 -83.4 -12.5 -16.0 -15.0 -21.2 …….. 2.4 -16.7 3.8 4.5 4.3 6.0 …….. -11.1 -20.8 -10.5 -2.5 -3.8 5.7 …….. 17.1 -8.6 18.5 4.8 5.0 3.8 …….. 13.3 6.9 13.6 13.9 14.0 13.7 …….. 2.0 -11.7 2.6 14.5 14.7 13.0 …….. 3.8 -9.0 4.2 19.6 17.4 32.3 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Territorial 16 17 18 -6.4 19.2 -7.4 0.2 30.7 -1.3 4.4 4.4 4.4 -4.0 -3.6 -4.0 -12.8 -2.5 -13.5 1.1 -6.5 1.7 -2.7 7.3 -3.3 10.0 28.5 8.6p (p) The fiscal year 2015 CNMI government-wide audited financial statements were not available in time for incorporation into the estimates of GDP. Preliminary estimates of central government spending reflect information on the CNMI government’s fiscal year budgets and on federal grant awards. -7- Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands Table 1.4. Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product Line 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Percent change: Gross domestic product Percentage points: Personal consumption expenditures Goods Durable goods Nondurable goods Services Net foreign travel 1 -11.1 -17.5 1.3 -7.7 0.6 2.3 2.8 3.5 2 3 4 5 6 7 -0.68 0.48 0.03 0.45 -0.13 -1.02 -8.36 -7.20 -3.14 -4.06 -5.45 4.28 1.65 2.14 1.02 1.12 0.99 -1.47 -1.80 -1.39 -0.84 -0.55 -4.67 4.25 1.47 3.69 1.52 2.17 5.37 -7.60 2.43 5.62 3.40 2.21 3.39 -6.57 6.06 3.07 2.46 0.61 4.37 -1.38 1.18 1.98 1.81 0.17 1.36 -2.16 Private fixed investment 8 0.17 0.38 -0.96 -0.67 0.56 1.51 6.54 10.15 Net exports of goods and services Exports Goods Services Imports Goods Services 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 -8.43 -25.55 -26.56 1.01 17.13 15.13 2.00 -9.64 -17.22 -12.91 -4.31 7.58 6.08 1.50 -1.19 0.95 -0.49 1.44 -2.14 -1.74 -0.41 -3.46 -4.80 -0.53 -4.27 1.35 1.78 -0.43 4.44 7.39 -0.20 7.58 -2.95 -2.62 -0.33 -2.07 6.71 0.14 6.57 -8.78 -7.54 -1.24 -8.74 1.14 -0.25 1.38 -9.88 -8.62 -1.26 -11.51 2.01 -0.16 2.17 -13.52 -10.24 -3.28 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Territorial 16 17 18 -2.12 0.24 -2.36 0.08 0.51 -0.43 1.82 0.11 1.71 -1.75 -0.10 -1.65 -5.92 -0.07 -5.84 0.45 -0.19 0.63 -1.06 0.19 -1.25 3.67 0.74 2.93p (p) The fiscal year 2015 CNMI government-wide audited financial statements were not available in time for incorporation into the estimates of GDP. Preliminary estimates of central government spending reflect information on the CNMI government’s fiscal year budgets and on federal grant awards. -8- Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands Table 1.5. Percent Change From Preceding Year in Prices for Gross Domestic Product and Price Indexes for Gross Domestic Product Line Gross domestic product Personal consumption expenditures Gross domestic product Personal consumption expenditures 2007 2008 2009 1 1.6 12.5 2.7 2 3.2 6.3 1.1 3 86.5 4 93.0 2010 2011 -0.8 2012 [Percent] -0.7 2013 2014 2015 1.9 1.5 4.3 6.6 -0.4 0.9 -0.8p 97.4 -0.4 5.3 1.6 [Index numbers, 2009=100] 100.0 99.2 98.5 100.4 101.9 106.2 113.2 98.9 100.0 106.2 107.2 106.4p 99.6 104.9 106.6 (p) The 2015 CNMI Consumer Price Index was not available in time for incorporation into the estimates of GDP. The preliminary PCE price index for 2015 reflects trends in the Guam Consumer Price Index. Table 1.6. Gross Domestic Income [Millions of dollars] Line 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Gross domestic product 1 938 939 795 799 733 751 780 836 922 Compensation of employees 2 533 501 455 456 431 415 433 470 493 Taxes on production and imports less subsidies 3 119 109 99 94 95 102 121 152 144 Gross operating surplus 4 286 329 241 249 207 234 226 214 285 NOTE. Detail may not add to total because of rounding. Table 1.7. Revisions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product Line 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Percent change: Revised Previously published 1 2 -11.1 -11.1 -17.5 -17.5 1.3 1.3 -7.7 -7.7 0.6 0.6 2.3 2.6 2.8 3.0 Percentage points: Revision 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 -9- Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands 2. GDP by Industry Table 2.1. Value Added by Industry [Millions of dollars] Line Gross domestic product 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1 938 939 795 799 733 751 780 836 Private industries Manufacturing Distributive Services Accommodations and Amusement All Other 2 3 4 5 6 717 174 140 111 291 727 50 165 122 390 586 18 135 105 328 589 16 149 110 314 540 15 153 97 274 563 12 157 114 280 581 11 170 133 268 632 15 178 147 292 Government Federal Territorial 7 8 9 222 13 209 212 14 197 209 16 193 210 14 196 193 15 178 188 15 173 199 15 184 204 14 189 NOTE. Detail may not add to total because of rounding. Table 2.2. Value Added by Industry as a Percentage of GDP [Percent] Line Gross domestic product 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Private industries Manufacturing Distributive Services Accommodations and Amusement All Other 2 3 4 5 6 76 19 15 12 31 77 5 18 13 42 74 2 17 13 41 74 2 19 14 39 74 2 21 13 37 75 2 21 15 37 74 1 22 17 34 76 2 21 18 35 Government Federal Territorial 7 8 9 24 1 22 23 1 21 26 2 24 26 2 25 26 2 24 25 2 23 26 2 24 24 2 23 - 10 - Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands Table 2.3. Real Value Added by Industry [Millions of chained (2009) dollars] Line Gross domestic product 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1 1,084 964 795 806 744 748 765 787 Private industries Manufacturing Distributive Services Accommodations and Amusement All Other 2 3 4 5 6 846 181 147 120 391 745 52 169 128 396 586 18 135 105 328 601 16 147 110 328 560 15 148 98 298 573 11 148 110 303 584 10 158 125 287 606 13 165 135 288 Government Federal Territorial 7 8 9 237 13 224 219 15 205 209 16 193 204 14 191 184 14 170 176 14 163 182 13 169 182 13 169 Table 2.4. Percent Changes in Real Value Added by Industry [Percent] Line Gross domestic product 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1 -11.1 -17.5 1.3 -7.7 0.6 2.3 2.8 Private industries Manufacturing Distributive Services Accommodations and Amusement All Other 2 3 4 5 6 -12.0 -71.4 15.1 6.9 1.2 -21.3 -65.4 -20.4 -17.8 -17.1 2.6 -10.5 9.3 4.2 0.1 -6.9 -7.8 0.8 -11.0 -9.1 2.3 -27.3 -0.3 13.0 1.6 2.0 -6.5 7.1 13.5 -5.2 3.7 32.4 3.9 8.2 0.4 Government Federal Territorial 7 8 9 -7.5 10.0 -8.6 -4.6 9.9 -5.6 -2.3 -15.1 -1.2 -9.9 1.5 -10.8 -4.3 -2.4 -4.5 3.2 -2.2 3.7 0.0 -3.6 0.3 - 11 - Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands Table 2.5. Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product by Industry Line 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Percent change: Gross domestic product Percentage points: Private industries Manufacturing Distributive Services Accommodations and Amusement All Other 1 -11.1 -17.5 1.3 -7.7 0.6 2.3 2.8 2 3 4 5 6 -9.27 -12.60 2.16 0.78 0.39 -16.49 -3.50 -3.58 -2.34 -7.07 1.94 -0.24 1.58 0.55 0.04 -5.05 -0.16 0.16 -1.52 -3.53 1.68 -0.58 -0.06 1.74 0.58 1.50 -0.10 1.48 2.06 -1.94 2.79 0.45 0.83 1.38 0.13 Government Federal Territorial 7 8 9 -1.71 0.13 -1.84 -1.04 0.15 -1.19 -0.61 -0.32 -0.30 -2.65 0.03 -2.68 -1.13 -0.05 -1.08 0.82 -0.04 0.86 0.00 -0.07 0.06 NOTE. Percentage-point contributions do not sum to the percent change in real gross domestic product because of rounding and differences in source data used to estimate GDP by industry and the expenditures measure of real GDP. Table 2.6. Compensation of Employees by Industry [Millions of dollars] Line 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1 533 501 455 456 431 415 433 470 Private industries Manufacturing Distributive Services Accommodations and Amusement All Other 2 3 4 5 6 336 74 62 61 140 307 26 72 67 142 263 9 58 58 137 264 8 62 60 134 259 8 62 54 135 252 8 63 64 119 267 7 67 74 117 298 10 71 83 135 Government Federal Territorial 7 8 9 197 13 184 194 14 180 192 16 176 191 14 177 172 14 158 163 14 149 166 14 152 172 14 158 Total compensation NOTE. Detail may not add to total because of rounding. - 12 -