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T O M O R R O W ’S M A N P O W E R N E E D S

Research Report on
Manpower Projection Methods
Bulletin 1769

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS






T O M O R R O W ’S M A N P O W E R N E E D S

Research Report on
Manpower Projection Methods
Bulletin 1769

1973
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
Peter J. Brennan, Secretary
BUR EAU O F LABO R STATISTICS
Ben Burdetsky, Deputy Commissioner

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Make checks for microfiche payable to NTIS.







C o n te n ts
Page

Introduction..........................................................................
1
Chapter I. Testing the effectiveness of the national occupation-by-industry matrix for projecting occupational
employment changes in States and metropolitan areas .................................................................................... 3
Chapter II. Variances in occupational death and retirement rates by State.............................................................27
Chapter III. Measuring the relationship between changes in industrial employment and changes in occupational
employment....................................................................................................................................................... 33
Tables:
1. Percent permissible error in projected employment growth when 10 percent error in total openings is
acceptable for selected growth and separation rates ........................................................................... 10
2? Average deviation of test results from actual employment in seven States................................................. 10
3. Projections as percent of actual employment, selected occupations, by State ..........................................10
4. Percent difference between actual and estimated change in selected occupations, 1950-69, seven States . . 11
5. Projections and actual employment changes
in California, by selected occupation, 1950-60 ........... 11
6 . Projections and actual employment changes
in Pennsylvania, by selected occupation, 1950-60 ...... 12
7. Projections and actual employment changes
in Ohio, by selected occupation, 1950-60 .................. 13
8 . Projections and actual employment changes
in Georgia, by selected occupation, 1950-60 ................ 14
9. Projections and actual employment changes
in Virginia, by selected occupation, 1950-60 ............. 15
10. Projections and actual employment changes
in West Virginia, by selected occupation, 1950-60
16
11. Projections and actual employment changes
in Vermont, by selected occupation, 1950-60 ............. 17
12. Average deviation of test results from actual employment in nine metropolitan areas .............................. 18
13. Percent difference between actual and estimated change in selected occupations, 1950-60, nine
metropolitan areas................................................................................................................................ 18
14. Projections and actual employment changes in Long Beach-Los Angeles, Calif., by selected occupation,
1950-60 ................................................................................................................................................ 18
15. Projections and actual employment changes
in Washington, D. C., by selected occupation, 1950-60 . 19
16. Projections and actual employment changes
in Baltimore, Md., by selected occupation, 1950-60
20
17. Projections and actual employment changes
in Miami, Fla., by selected occupation, 1950-60
21
18. Projections and actual employment changes
in Omaha, Nebraska, by selected occupation, 1950-60
....
19. Projections and actual employment changes
in Trenton, N.J., by selected occupation, 1950-60
23
20. Projections and actual employment changes
in Spokane, Wash., by selected occupation, 1950-60 .... 24
21. Projections and actual employment changes
in Baton Rouge, La., by selected occupation, 1950-60 .. 25
22. Projections and actual employment changes
in Phoenix, Ariz., by selected occupation, 1950-60 ...... 26
23. Comparison of estimated annual death and retirement rates by State, 1960 ............................................ 29
24. Annual death and retirement rates *br men, U.S. and selected States, by occupation, 1950-60 ............... 30
25. Annual death and retirement rates for women, U.S. and selected States, by occupation, 1950-60 ........... 30
26. Annual death and retirement rates for men, selected metropolitan areas, by occupation, 1950-60 ........... 31
27. Annual death and retirement rates for women, selected metropolitan areas, by occupation, 1950-60 . . . . 31
28. Comparison of estimated separations due to death and retirement, using national and State rates for
Pennsylvania, by occupation, 1950-60 .................................................................................................. 32
29. Effect of industry growth on employment change, by occupation, 1950-60 ............................................ 35
30. Employment changes in industry, by occupation, 1950-60 ...................................................................... 36




iii

C o n te n ts —C o n tin u e d
P a ge

Charts:
1. Distribution of occupational employment projections as percent of actual 1960 employment for seven
test States ..........................................................................................................................................................
2. Distribution of occupational employment projections as percent of actual employment for nine test
metropolitan areas .............................................................................................................................................




IV

6
8

In tr o d u c tio n
The Tomorrow's M anpower N eeds (TMN) series is
designed to assist those responsible for making State and
area manpower projections which are used in planning
education, training, and vocational guidance. This series
has been revised to provide up-to-date information
on national projections of manpower requirements
and indicate the results of the Bureau’s research to
improve methods of developing projections. The full
series of reports are as follows:
Tomorrow’s Manpower Needs; National Manpower
Projections and a Guide to their Use as a Tool in
Developing State and Area Manpower Projections,
BLS Bulletin 1606:
Vol. I

- Developing 91 Area Manpower Projec­
tions, February 1969

Vol. II —National Trends and Outlook: Indus­
try Employment and Occupa­
tional Structure, February 1969




Vo. Ill —National Trends and Outlook: Occu­
pational Employment
Vol. IV —The National Industry-Occupational
Matrix and Other Manpower Data,
1969
Supplement No. 1 -

R e v is e d E m p l o y m e n t P r o j e c ­

tions for the Construction
Industry, April 1970
Supplement No. 2 —
New and Revised National
Industry Projections and
Procedures for Adjusting
Wage and Salary Employ­
ment to Total Employ­
ment, 1970
Vol. IV - Revised 1971-T h e National Industry -o c c u p a tio n a l Matrix and
Other Manpower Data, BLS Bulle­
tin 1737,1972

1




C h a p te r I.

T e s tin g th e E ffe c tiv e n e s s o f t h e N a tio n a l

O c c u p a tio n -b y -ln d u s tr y M a tr ix fo r P ro je c tin g
O c c u p a tio n a l E m p lo y m e n t C h a n g e s in S t a t e s
a n d M e tr o p o lita n A re a s
Volume I of the TMN presented two methods by
which the National matrix could be used to translate
projections of State or area employment into projections
of occupational employment. In the absence of informa­
tion on the occupational composition of industries in
the State, the bulletin recommended the use of the
National 1-0 matrix, but concern was expressed about
possible differences between the National average com­
position of each industry and the composition of the
industry in the State. Two methods are suggested to deal
with this problem:
In “ Method A” , the industry staffing patterns of the
national matrix were applied directly to their corre­
sponding estimates of base year (1960) and projected
(1975) industry employment for the State. The results
in each industry then were added to all-industry totals
in each year and used to compute change factors
(1975 employment/1960 employment) for each occupa­
tion. Projections for the State would then be made by ap­
plying the change factor to the State’s base (1960) occupa­
tional employment level, derived from the Census o f Pop­
ulation for that year.1 In effect, this method applies to the
actual number of workers in each occupation in the State
in 1960, a change factor reflecting the projected growth of
each industry employing that occupation in the State
weighted by the incidence of that occupation in each
industry nationally. “ Method A,” a relatively simple
mechanical process, was used to project preliminary
occupational employment for over 160 specific occupa­
tions. Because many of the industries in the National 1-0
matrix are broadly defined and contain sub-industries

1F or

e x a m p le s

and

a

m ore

co m p le te

d is cu s s io n

o f th e

t e ch n iq u e s , see T o m o r r o w ’s M a n p o w e r N e e d s ; N a tio n a l M a n ­
p ow er

P r o je c tio n s

and

a

G u id e

to

th eir

U se a s a

T o o l in

D e v e lo p in g S ta te a n d A r e a M a n p o w e r P r o je c tio n s , B u lle tin 1 6 0 6

(B u re a u o f L a b o r S ta tistics, 1 9 6 9 ).




with varying occupations, the plants in an 1-0 industry
within a State may differ in composition from the
national average for the industry— which case the
in
weighting may be inaccurate.
Since the 4-volume TMN report was released in early
1969, over 40 state employment agencies have under­
taken projections o f manpower requirements; to date 38
of these have been completed and 33 published. Most of
the studies are restricted to State-wide estimates, but
some utilized the TMN methods to develop manpower
requirements for sub-State regions and/or metropolitan
areas. Before the TMN report was released, the Bureau
tested the recommended procedures in a few large States
to measure their success in predicting past changes in
employment. The results o f one such test in Ohio were
included in Volume I o f the TMN report.
The BLS bulletin was prepared by Joseph S. Cangialosi
under the supervision o f Richard E. Dempsey in
the Division o f Manpower and Occupational Outlook,
Russell B. Flanders, Chief. This bulletin presents
results o f the Bureau’s continuing research in developing
and testing techniques used to prepare projections of
State and area manpower requirements. The preparation
o f State and local manpower requirements is relatively
new and undeveloped; this bulletin attempts to provide
some empirical evidence regarding the reliability as well
as some of the shortcomings o f the techniques presented
in Tom orrow's Manpower Needs. The Bureau has
examined and reported on several important components
o f these procedures in the following pages.
In “ Method B,” which indirectly used the National
matrices, a State industry-occupational matrix first had
to be developed from Census (1960) data. The State
matrix then would be projected to the target year
(1975) by applying change factors (1975 ratio/1960
ratio) computed from each cell in the National Matrix to
the corresponding cell in the State matrix. Once
3

projected, individual occupational staffing patterns for
each industry in the State matrix could be applied to
separately projected State industry employment
estimates. Although procedurally superior, “Method B”
generally was less desirable since it required the
expenditure o f considerable resources to develop a base
period matrix. Also, much o f the advantage gained from
local occupational staffing patterns would be offset by
the limited amount o f industry detail available from the
Census for use to develop the State matrix. A
Census-based State matrix could include only about 40
industries and 50 occupations, whereas the national
matrix includes 116 industries and 160 occupations.
Because o f resource problems and the technical
limitations o f “ Method B,” most State agencies chose to
use “ Method A.”
Before the TMN report was released, a number of
tests were conducted to assess the reliability of “ Method
A” . As indicated earlier, one comprehensive test of the
method for the State of Ohio was presented in Volume I
o f the TMN report. However, due to the widespread use
of “ Method A,” especially in small States, in sub-State
regions, and SMSA’s, more extensive testing seemed
warranted. For this purpose, seven States and nine
SMSA’s representing a wide range o f population size,
growth rates, industrial development, and geographic
areas were selected for testing. The following paragraphs
present the results of these tests.

Method Used to Test the Effectiveness
o f "Method A " in Projecting State
Occupational Employment Changes
“ Method A” was applied to past situations in
predicting past changes in a State’s occupational
employment and results were measured. How effectively
would past changes in national staffing patterns,
combined with past changes in a State’s (SMSA)
industry employment, have measured changes in
employment for specific occupations in the State
(SMSA)? Or, how much error is introduced by using
national occupational patterns instead o f State patterns
for each industry? This question is important because
several years will pass before detailed occupational
information for each State can be obtained from the
1970 Census2 and from the Federal-State Occupational
Employment Statistics program.3 For testing purposes,
the 1950-60 period was chosen. National patterns (i.e.,
the percent distribution o f occupational employment in
an industry) from the 1950 and 1960 decennial censuses
4




were developed covering 29 occupations in eight
occupational groups for 116 industries. The occupations
were selected to represent a cross section of various
employment sizes, skill levels, and employment growth
rates. Once available, the national patterns then were
applied to their corresponding 1950 and 1960 industry
employment in each State (SMSA) as reported in the
decennial censuses. The results (by industry) for each
State were added to all-industry totals in the base (1950)
and target (1960) years and were used to compute
occupational change factors for the 1950-60 decade.
“ Method A” projections to 1960 then were computed
by applying each occupation’s change factor to the
actual 1950 occupational employment reported by the
Census for the State in 1950. (See tables 2-11.) The
resulting projection of employment for 1960 by
occupation and the actual data from the 1960 Census
were compared.
Results should be interpreted cautiously since in the
test procedures actual data from the 1950 and 1960
Censuses were used instead of projections. Thus, the two
principal inputs needed to complete “ Method A,”
namely, State (SMSA) projections o f industry employ­
ment and national projections o f occupational patterns
by industry, were determined perfectly. The actual use
of “ Method A” by State agencies would involve error in
each. The use of national rather than State occupational
composition for each industry is being tested.
When interpreting results, one should consider the
degree o f accuracy required. However, establishing an
objective criteria for a “ good” projection is difficult. An
acceptable standard in one situation may be completely
inappropriate in another. Therefore, when evaluating
projections there is no single criteria against which each
and every occupation can be judged. In the final
analysis, a “ good” projection is one that successfully
guides those responsible for planning education and
training programs to reach correct decisions.
At first, one might say that a projection is accurate if
it predicts, within a predetermined range (for example
1 0 percent), the level o f employment in a target year.
However, since occupational employment projections
are often made to establish educational and training
needs, the real objective is the measure o f employment
change. In some occupations, employment projections
3The

B u re a u o f L a b o r S ta tistics, in c o o p e r a t i o n w ith th e

M a n p o w e r A d m in is tr a t io n a n d t h e S ta te e m p lo y m e n t a g e n cie s,
h a s u n d e r ta k e n t o d e v e lo p a n in te g ra te d n a tio n a l/S ta te in d u s tr y o c c u p a t io n a l e m p lo y m e n t m a tr ix sy ste m .
3 F o r a d e s c r ip t io n o f th is p ro g r a m , see t h e M o n t h ly L a b o r
R e v ie w , O c t o b e r 1 9 7 1 , p p . 1 2 -1 7 .

within 5 percent would be sufficient, but in others,
especially those having little growth, such projections
n
might be unacceptable. For example, if employment is
expected to double over the period, projections to
within 10 percent probably would be adequate. How­
ever, if employment increases only five percent, then
projections accurate to within 10 percent would be
misleading. Also, evaluations o f projections based on
employment levels often can mislead the casual reader.
For example, a projection to within 2 or 3 percent may
well have erred in forecasting employment change as
much as 50 percent. Thus, a better criterion forjudging
a “ good” projection would be if the projection correctly
predicts, within an acceptable range, the change in
employment by occupation. However, even this criterion
cannot be applied to most situations. For example,
projecting change within 20 percent may be reasonable
for moderate growth but far too rigid for employment
which has declined or risen very rapidly. If employment
is declining, it may not be necessary to identify the
amount of decrease to designate the occupation as one
for which training programs should not be offered.
Conversely, if an occupation is projected to grow very
rapidly, it may not be necessary to predict the change to
within 10 percent to mark it as an occupation for which
training seems desirable. In such instances, a less
accurate projection may adequately guide planners.
Finally, the need to replace workers who leave the
labor force due to death, retirement, or other reasons
constitutes a large share of total job openings and should
be considered in an overall evaluation. Such replace­
ments are more predictable since they depend largely on
normal working life patterns and the age distribution of
workers in various occupations. The significance of
replacement requirements in estimating total openings
for an occupation has an inverse relationship to growth
requirements, i.e., the slower the growth the larger share
of total openings from replacements. Therefore, to
measure total openings which is the real goal, the
accuracy of the projection depends upon two factors—
employment change and death and retirement rates.
The maximum percent error in growth which can be
tolerated for any maximum percent error in an estimate
o f total openings and for any set of growth and
separation rates may be predetermined. Table 1 is an
example of a maximum 10 percent error in total
openings. Tables can be constructed to represent other
error margins. Table 1 shows that for occupations having
a 25 percent growth and a 2 percent annual separation
rate (mostly male workers) the estimated growth could
be in error by ± 36 percent without more than a 20
percent error in total openings.




Although this approach appears to give a “ hard”
numerical measure of whether or not an estimate is
good, still a large arbitrary element is involved in setting
a criterion for permissible error in the total openings
estimate.
No single criterion can be adopted to determine a
“ good” projection in all circumstances. However, to
compare States and areas in this report, an arbitrary
evaluation standard of 80-120 percent o f the actual
employment change was used. Also, the summaries for
the tests examine the results to determine the success o f
predicting employment levels in both the States and
SMSA’s. As indicated, such results can be misleading and
each projection must be judged by the criterion o f how
well it would have guided educators and planners. Only
if it provides proper guidance can a projection be judged
“ good.”
Table 2 shows the overall average percentage (all
occupations) deviation from perfect projections in each
of the States tested. Although far from conclusive, these
results indicate that “ Method A” is less reliable than
“ Method B” for States well below average size and for
States expected to undergo significant employment
growth.
Even more exacting evaluation criteria were adopted
for individual States. Instead o f examining how well the
procedure predicted the success o f 1960 employment
levels, evaluations o f the following States predicted how
accurately the procedure measured changes in
occupational employment during the 1950-60 decade.
Even under the more stringent criteria, “Method A”
appears to have made reliable projections in a vast
majority of cases. Following is a brief discussion o f the
results in each State. Complete results are shown in
tables 5 through 22.

Summary o f State Tests of Tomorrow's
Manpower Needs Projection "Method A "
A broad overview of the accuracy of “ Method A” in
projecting occupational employment may be gained
from Table 3 and Chart 1. The Table shows the
relationship between projected and actual employment
levels in the 29 test occupations in each o f the States in
1960.
Some of the largest discrepancies, such as electrical
engineers, tool and diemakers, and setters in Georgia
probably resulted from the lack of industry detail in the
national matrix. (See table 8.) For example, a large share
of the electrical engineers are concentrated in the
5

Chart

1.

D is tr ib u tio n o f o c c u p a tio n a l e m p lo y m e n t p r o j e c t i o n s a s p e r c e n t
o f a c tu a l 1 9 6 0 e m p lo y m e n t f o r s e v e n t e s t s t a t e s
Frequency
140

Percent

electrical machinery industry (SIC 36). However, their
relative importance differs significantly among the
various 3-digit SIC components of SIC 36. For example,
in the household appliance sector (SIC 363) they
account for less than 5 percent of the total work force,
while in the communication equipment sector (SIC
366), especially where military equipment is produced,
they often account for 20 percent or more. Therefore,
the national matrix would be most effective in project­
ing electrical engineers in a State when the composition
of SIC 36 is similar to that in the Nation.
Another view of Method A’s accuracy is shown in
table 4, which gives for each State the percent difference
between the actual and estimated change in employment
in selected test occupations. As can be seen, the percent
change was projected within 20 percent of the actual
change in well over 80 percent of the cases.
California

Although employment growth in most occupations
was significantly greater in California than in the Nation
as a whole during the 1950-60 period, the test applica­
tion of TMN “Method A” resulted in good projections.
Actual employment in six of the detailed occupations
6




more than doubled and “Method A” correctly predicted
increases of this magnitude for five. Even the exception,
medical and dental technicians, was identified as a
growth occupation.
Ten occupations or occupational groups in the test
experienced below average growth rates of less than 30
percent, and “Method A” correctly identified all 10.
In 20 of the 29 detailed occupations, estimated
growth differed from actual growth by less than 20
percentage points. Five of the nine occupations not
meeting this criterion were among those which doubled
in employment and all were identified as growth
occupations.
Pennsylvania

In contrast to California, employment changes in
Pennsylvania reflected slower growth rates than in the
Nation as a whole. Table 6 shows that in only two
occupations were Pennsylvania test projections more
than 20 percentage points different from the actual
growth. In one of these, office machine operators,
“Method A” predicted correctly that employment
would double. Of the dozen occupations that experi­
enced actual growth of at least 30 percent, “Method A”

failed to project such growth in only two instances;
secretaries were predicted to increase 23 percent and
welders and flame-cutters 26 percent. Both projections,
however, are within 20 percentage points of actual
increases.
Eleven occupations declined between 1950 and 1960.
“Method A” correctly predicted decreases in 10 cases,
with the sole exception of compositors and typesetters.
Numeric changes in table 6 illustrate that even in this
occupation the false requirements indicated by “Method
A” would have had little, if any, implications for job
training, since far more training would have been
required to replace those who left this occupation or the
labor force because of deaths, retirements, or other
reasons.
The test also showed that “Method A” was quite
successful in correctly projecting changes in detailed
occupations when these changes ran counter to the
change for the broad group of which the occupation is a
part. For example, although the professional group
increased moderately, “Method A” correctly predicted a
small decline in the number of chemists. Similarly,
although the number of craftsmen remained almost
constant, the projections correctly show moderate
growth for linemen, radio and TV repairmen, tool and
diemakers, and declines for bakers, brickmasons, carpen­
ters, electricians, machinists, and painters. Comparable
patterns also may be seen in the operatives group.
O h io

Projections results for Ohio appear good. (See table
7.) Only two occupations, electrical engineers and office
machine operators, had projected increases which were
more than 20 percentage points different from actual
increases. Of seven occupations or groups showing
declines, “Method A” would have correctly identified
six of the seven. The one exception was compsitors and
typesetters, and as in Pennsylvania, the discrepancy is
probably not large enough to have serious training
implications, if the magnitude of demand generated by
deaths and retirements is considered.
Perhaps most important for training, the test would
have correctly identified all nine occupations that
increased by more than 30 percent between 1950 and
1960.
In this State also, “Method A” would have done a
creditable job in identifying those detailed occupations
where employment moved in the opposite direction
from their broad group. For example, laundry and dry
cleaning operatives were correctly forecast to decrease,
even though the operatives group showed a small




increase. Similar patterns are exhibited in several of the
crafts.
Georgia

In the decade studied, employment in this mediumsize State increased at a rate considerably above the
Nation as a whole, as indicated in table 8. In contrast, 10
occupations among those tested grew 30 percent or less.
“Method A” correctly predicted that nine of these
would grow at this slower rate; automobile mechanics
and repairmen was the exception.
Three occupations showed actual decreases in em­
ployment. “Method A” forecast two of these and
projected little change in the third, painters.
Although 12 occupations grew at a rate which was
not within 20 percentage points of the actual increase,
six doubled (or nearly did), and “Method A” predicted
they would grow above average. Of the remaining six,
chemists had a numeric discrepancy which indicates that
replacement needs would be more im portant than the
projection error.
Virginia

Only four occupations in Virginia had predicted and
actual growth rates which differed more than 20
percentage points. In one of these occupations, bank
tellers, “Method A” correctly predicted that employ­
ment would more than double during the decade.
Another, auto service and parking attendants, would
have few vocational training implications.
The projections correctly show declines in employ­
ment of carpenters and laundry and dry cleaning
operatives, even though the broad occupational groups
of which these are a part showed opposite movement.
Even if “Method A” failed to predict an actual employ­
ment decrease for bakers, the discrepancy amounted to
less than 10 jobs a year, a figure which would be far
outweighed by needs generated through deaths and
retirements. Of the 16 occupations which grew over 30
percent in the decade, “Method A” correctly identified
15.

West Virgin ia

“Method A” also performed well in this State, where
employment actually fell in the decade under study. As
table 10 shows, only five occupations had predictions
that differed from actual rates of employment change by
more than 20 percentage points. In one of these, office
7

machine operators, a very large increase was correctly
predicted.
In spite of generally declining employment, seven
occupations showed employment increases of 30 percent
or more in the 1950-60 period. “Method A” correctly
identified all seven.
The projections also identified occupations having
trends which differ from those of their broad occupa­
tional groups. For example, craftsmen declined in
employment from 1950 to 1960, yet the component
occupations compositors, linemen, radio and TV repair­
men, millwrights, and tool and diemakers were all
correctly predicted to increase. The operatives category
showed a substantial employment decline, but the
method correctly predicted increases for auto service
and parking attendants and welders.

had little effect on the planning of training programs
over the 10-year period.
As in most other States, “Method A” identified those
occupations having trends counter to the trends of the
broad group of which they are a part. For example,
although craftsmen were correctly forecast to increase
slightly, employment declines were correctly predicted
for bakers, carpenters, and painters. Similarly, although
the operatives group showed a small decline, auto service
and parking attendants and welders and flame-cutters
were correctly projected to increase rapidly.
Sum m ary o f M etropolitan (SM SA ) tests o f "M e th o d A "

As indicated earlier, tests of “Method A,” also were
conducted on a selected group of SMSA’s. The fre­
quency distribution of occupational employment esti­
mates for 1960 generated by “Method A” as a percent­
age of actual 1960 employment in nine SMSA’s is
depicted on chart 2. As with State results, a strong
central tendency is seen; “Method A” predicted over 36
percent of the occupations within 5 percent of their
actual 1960 employment level and 86 percent within 25
percent. Table 12 shows the average deviation from 100
percent for each SMSA.

V e rm o n t

Table 11 shows that for the smallest of the test
States, only eight occupations had predicted and actual
growth changes differing more than 20 percentage
points. One of these, office machine operators, was
correctly forecast to double, and many of the others had
small numeric differences; the discrepances would have

D is tr ib u tio n o f o c c u p a tio n a l e m p lo y m e n t p r o j e c t i o n s a s p e r c e n t o f a c tu a l 1 9 6 0
e m p l o y m e n t f o r n in e t e s t m e tr o p o lita n a r e a s
Frequency
140

45-54

55-64

65-74

75-84

85-94

95-104

105-114 115-124 125-134 1 35-144 145-154

Percent

8




155-164

To what extent does “Method A” become less reliable
as the population size of the area decreases? As
expected, the test showed that accuracy tends to decline
when “Method A” is followed in smaller SMSA’s.
However, in most of the small SMSA’s tested, “Method
A” appears to have predicted many of the important
employment shifts that occurred during the 1950-60
decade. Size is not the only factor affecting the
procedure. For example, the industrial mix and the
area’s growth rate also may significantly affect its
reliability. Baltimore’s average deviation was the smallest
of the nine areas studied, yet was the third largest in
population. The relatively good performance of
“Method A” probably was due to diversity of the
industrial mix in the Baltimore SMSA and the fact that
its rate of growth between 1950 and 1960 was near the
national average. The test showed somewhat
contradictory results in two rapidly growing




areas—
Phoenix and Los Angeles— the better results in
but
Los Angeles probably stem from its broad industrial base
and large size.
Complete numeric and percentage comparisons of the
projected and actual employment data for the nine
SMSA’s are presented in tables 12 through 22. Again, as
with the State tests, results should be interpreted
cautiously since the test assumes that perfect projections
of national occupational patterns and SMSA industrial
employment were available. In actual practice, error
would be involved in both. Also, the summary tables
evaluate the test projections for the predictability of
employment levels. As indicated earlier, a more satisfac­
tory criterion of judging the accuracy of projections is
the success of the method in predicting employment
changes. For such information, the reader should ex­
amine the tables of each metropolitan area.

9

Table 1. Percent permissible error in projected e m p lo y­
m ent growth when 10 percent error in total openings is
acceptable fo r selected growth and separation rates

Table 2. Average deviation o f test results from actual
em ploym ent in seven states1
Percent
deviation

State
1 0 -year

1 ___
5 ___
1 0 ___
1 5 ___
2 0 ___
2 5 ___
3 0 ___
3 5 ___
4 0 ___
4 5 ___
5 0 ___
6 0 ___
7 0 ___
80 . . . .
9 0 ___
1 0 0 ___

Table 3.

1 .0

1.5

2 .0

2.5

3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5

o
C
D

(percent)

0.5

o
C
O

growth

Selected annual death and retirement rates (percent)

Percent permissible error in employment projection
60

110

20

30

15
13
13

20

11

17
15
14
13
13
13

11

12

160
40
25
20

210

50
30
23

11

12

11

12

18
16
15
14
14
13
13
13

11

11:

12

11

11

12

18
17
16
15
14
14
13
13
13

11

11

12

12

11

11

12

12

12
12
11

20

260 310 360 410 460 510 560 610
60 70 80 90 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 2 0 130
35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70
27 30 33 37 40 43 47 50
23 25 28 30 33 35 38 40
20
22
24 26 28 30 32 34
18 2 0 2 2 23 25 27 28 30
17 19 2 0 2 1
23 24 26 27
16 18 19 2 0 2 1
23 24 25
16 17 18 19 2 0 2 1
22
23
15 16 17 18 19 2 0 2 1
22
14 15 16 17 18 18 19 2 0
14 14 15 16 16 17 18 19
13 14 14 15 16 16 17 18
13 13 14 14 15 16 16 17
13 13 14 14 15 15 16 16

California . . .
Pennsylvania
Ohio ...........
Georgia
Virginia
West Virginia
Vermont . . .

9.0
5.2
5.7
14.4
8 .6
8 .1

11.5

1Mean difference from 100.0 percent, ignoring sign.

Projections as percent o f actual em ploym ent, selected occupations, by State
State
Occupation

California

Professional, technical, and k in d re d .........................
C hem ists..................................................................
Draftsmen .............................................................
Engineers, e le c tr ic a l.............................................
Nurses, p ro fessio n a l.............................................
Technicians, medical and d e n ta l.........................
Managers, officials and proprietors, except farm . .
Clerical and k in d re d ....................................................
Bank tellers ...........................................................
Cashiers ..................................................................
Office machine o p e ra to rs....................................
Secretaries, stenographers, and t y p is t s ..............
Salesworkers..................................................................
Craftsmen, foremen and kindred .............................
Bakers ....................................................................
Brickmasons, stonemasons and tilesetters.........
Carpenters .............................................................
Compositors and typesetters ..............................
Electricians.............................................................
L in e m e n ..................................................................
Machinists .............................................................
Mechanics and repairmen, auto .........................
Mechanics and repairmen, radio and T V ............
M illw rig h ts.............................................................
Painters, construction and m aintenance...........
Plumbers and pipefitters.......................................
Tool and die makers and se tte rs.........................
Operatives and k in d red ................................................
Attendants, auto service, and parking................
Bus, truck and tractor d riv e rs ..............................
Laundry and dry cleaning o p e ra tiv e s ................
Meatcutters ...........................................................
Welders and Flam ecutters....................................
Service workers, except private h o u s e h o ld ..............
Practical nurses......................................................
Waiters and waitresses .........................................
Laborers, except farm and m in e ................................

98
93
115
75

10




100

67
103
98
124
98
114
94
103
104
116

Pennsylvania
101

104
100

102

102

101

91
97

92
105
115
96

93
118
92
90
107

86

95
98
101

103

102

103
109
93
98
115

101

100

103
96
98
96

112

106

101

101

106
45
99
91
103
98
95
85
95
79
99
105

92
105
99
93

107
103
96
106
97
104
124
105
134
104
99

100

101

100

101

109
126
103

98
84
92
32
82
85
91

118
93
105
93
95
95
98
125
85
75

111

88

107
97
109
116
123
99

Georgia

103
114
109
99
105
104

108
99
101

Ohio

112

95

101
102

104
97
95
94
97
74
103
104

101

105
105
103

91
103
107
110

97
96
111
102

97
101

91

Virginia

West Verginia

Verm ont

96

102

100

102

88

112

115
106
110

116
135
137
123

86

85
104
103
119

105
103
107

101

82
90
91
99
98

88

110

100

98
138

85
89

86

102

102

103

103
107
83
105

104
116
107
103
98

110

105

102

101

111

100

114

106
92
109
95
103

100

100

93
99
99
113
90
95
104
98
83
106
92

102
86

114
98
91
110

98
114
110

147

73
92
95
101

82

100
102
111
100
120

107
92
84
84
60
99
125
116
74
109
109
104
91
75
103
94
98
97
102

Table 4.
States

Percent difference between actual and estimated change in selected occupations, 1950*60, seven

Percent differences
Total test occu patio ns...........
.............................................
1 1 - 2 0 .............................................
2 1 -3 0 .............................................
3 1 -4 0 .............................................
4 1 -5 0 .............................................
5 1 -60 .............................................
61 and o v e r ..................................
0 -1 0

le 5.

7 States California

Pennsylvania

Ohio

Georgia

Virginia

Vermont

West Virginia

37
27

37
19

37
21

37
19

37
24

6

11

259
165

37
23

37
32

50
16
16

5

a

7

1

0

2

4

1

5

2

0

2

0

5

2

10

8

3

1

2

1

7
3

2

0

0

0

3
3

0

1

0

0

0

0

1

0

0

2

0

1

0

2

Projections and actual em ploym en t changes in C alifornia, b y selected occupation, 1950*60
Employment
Occupation

Actual
Professional, technical, and k in d re d .............................
Chemists ....................................................................
Draftsmen ..................................................................
Engineers, e le ctrica l..................................................
Nurses, professional..................................................
Technicians, medical and d e n ta l.............................
Managers, officials and proprietors, except farm . . . .
Clerical and k in d re d .........................................................
Bank t e lle r s ...............................................................
Cashiers ....................................................................
Office machine operators.........................................
Secretaries, stenographers, and ty p is ts ..................
Salew orkers......................................................................
Craftsmen, foremen, and kin d red ..................................
Bakers ........................................................................
Brickmasons, stonemasons and tilesetters ...........
C a rp en ters..................................................................
Compositors and ty p e se tte rs..................................
Electricians ...............................................................
Lin em en ......................................................................
Machinists ..................................................................
Mechanics and repairmen, a u to m o b ile ..................
Mechanics and repairmen, radio and T V ..............
M illw rights.................................................................
Painters, construction and m aintenance................
Plumbers and pipefitters .........................................
Tool and diemakers and s e tte r s ..............................
Operatives and kindred ..................................................
Attendants, auto service and p a rk in g ....................
Bus, truck and tractor drivers..................................
Laundry and drycleaning operatives.......................
Meatcutters ...............................................................
Welders and flame-cutters .......................................
Service workers, except private h ou sehold ..................
Practical nurses .........................................................
Waiters and waitresses .............................................
Laborers, except farm and m in e ....................................




Percent change
1950-60

1960
1950

357,526

Projected

430,382
5,410
11,370
9,357
38,214
7,905
441,843
552,932
7,919

12,653
20,999
21,762
13,300
108,980
384,345
8,726

343,195
1,555
16,232
13,369
21,548
6,301
124,096
361,718
12,706

20,019
14,975
134,580
331,291
594,935
8,712
6,692
78,609
11,729
26,338
20,423
38,604
49,028
7,931
1,969
36,544
20,780
7,853
599,706
211
714
106,794
32,278
15,083
18,058
344,426
12,708
59,957
219,721

22,604
20,755
99,795
117,562
208,635
723
2,755
-4 ,5 9 3
3,140
8,468
8,152
19,526
8,532
3,510
710
2,682
5,552
6,241
256,147
13,353
32,069
1,075
2,028
12,296
132,898
5,911
20,550
26,805

21,758
25,672
85,429
130,011
238,927
2,269
1,588
1,478
2,957
8,718
10,248
18,041
13,812
5,358
1,338
2,181
5,691
7,231
284,340
11,933
40,031
80
2,672
19,497
158,778
12,254
23,613
24,438

2 ,1 0 2

Actual
83
39
111

224
57
168
25
70
110

113
139
74
35
35
8

41
-6

27
32
40
51
17
44
36
7
27
79
43
61
30
3
13

Projected
80
29
143
143
56
80
28
65
160
109
171
63
39
40
26
24
2

25
33
50
47
28
68
68
6

27
92
47
55
37
0

39
47
34

18
108
46
96
39

12

11

68

11

Table 6.

Projections and actual em ploym ent changes in Pennsylvania b y selected occu pation , 1950-60
Employment
Occupation

Actual
Professional, technical, and k in d re d ..............................
Chemists ....................................................................
Draftsmen ..................................................................
Engineers, e le ctrica l..................................................
Nurses, p rofessio nal..................................................
Technicians, medical and d e n ta l..............................
Managers, officials and proprietors, except farm . . . .
Clerical and k in d re d .........................................................
Bank tellers ................................................................
C a sh ie rs .................................. ...................................
Office machine op erato rs.........................................
Secretaries, stenographers, and t y p is t s ..................
Salesworkers ....................................................................
Craftsmen, foremen, and k in d re d ..................................
Bakers .........................................................................
Brickmasons, stonemasons and tilesetters ............
C a rp e n te rs ..................................................................
Compositors and ty p e se tte rs..................................
Electricians ................................................................
Lin e m e n ......................................................................
M a c h in is ts ..................................................................
Mechanics and repairmen, a u to m o b ile ..................
Mechanics and repairmen, radio and T V ..............
M illw rig h ts..................................................................
Painters, construction and m aintenance................
Plumbers and pipefitters .........................................
Tool and diemakers and s e tte r s ..............................
Operatives and kindred ..................................................
Attendants, auto service and p a rk in g .....................
Bus, truck and tractor d rivers..................................
Laundry and drycleaning operatives.......................
Meatcutters ................................................................
Welders and flame-cutters .......................................
Service workers, except private h ou seh old ..................
Practical nurses .........................................................
Waiters and waitresses .............................................
Laborers, except farm and m in e ....................................

12




328,905
6,907
13,900
8,491
29,944
4,983
303,731
491,289
4,254
13,379
8,085
108,870
271,238
624,199
10,932
14,651
46,673
13,686
25,141
13,142
51,880
41,363
5,371
5,849
23,028
22,926
9,508
1,047,050
13,616
107,946
23,821
12,097
25,804
283,151
6,187
43,860
304,302

Percent change
1950-60

1960

1950

112,244
-2 7 7
4,507
2,525
10,667
2,689
-1 3 ,3 4 6
99,883
4,123
13,285
10,761
32,652
35,602
-5 ,9 1 1
-1 ,6 2 6
-3 7 2
-7 ,0 3 1
-3 7 2
-1 ,7 8 3
3,249
-1 0 ,0 2 3
2,075
454
225
-3 ,6 2 0
-3 9
1,516
-1 1 1,7 2 2
4,552
3,427
-3 ,0 8 9
-4 0 9
8,957
55,801
6,938
6 ,8 6 8

-6 4 ,3 2 8

Projected
116,610
-6 8

7,076
3,517
10,416
3,093
-2 ,4 9 2
110,509
3,374
12,438
8,084
25,109
28,982
3,279
-5 8 7
-3 3 3
-1 0 ,0 5 9
334
-2 ,0 7 8
2,171
-5 ,1 8 3
-2 8 2
484
392
-4 ,3 8 7
-4 3 0
1 ,0 2 0

-102,099
4,973
8,118
-3 ,6 4 5
-9 7 7
6,781
44,838
3,554
8,617
-5 4 ,6 9 9

Actual
34
-4
32
30
36
54
-4

Projected
35
-1

51
41
35
62
-1

20

22

97
99
133
30
13

79
93
100

23
11
1

-1

-1 5
-3
-1 5
-3
-7
25
-1 9
5
8

4
-1 6
0

16
-1 1

33
3
-1 3
-3
35
20
112

16
-2 1

-5
-2
-2 2
2
-8

17
-1 0
-1

9
7
-1 9
-2
11
-1 0

37
8

-1 5
- 8

26
16
57
20

-1 8

Table 7.

Projections and actual em ploym ent changes in O h io , b y selected o ccu p a tion , 1950-60
Em ploym ent
Occupation

Actual
Professional, technical, and k in d re d ..............................
Chemists ....................................................................
Draftsmen .................................................................
Engineers, e le ctrica l..................................................
Nurses, professional..................................................
Technicians, medical and d e n ta l.............................
Managers, officials and proprietors, except farm . . . .
Clerical and k in d re d .........................................................
Bank t e lle r s ................................................................
C a sh ie rs ......................................................................
Office machine op erato rs.........................................
Secretaries, stenographers, and ty p is t s ..................
Salesworkers ....................................................................
Craftsmen, foremen, and k in d re d ..................................
B a k e r s .........................................................................
Brickmasons, stonemasons and tilesetters ............
C a rp en ters..................................................................
Compositors and typesetters ..................................
Electricians ................................................................
Lin e m e n ......................................................................
M a c h in is ts ..................................................................
Mechanics and repairmen, a u to m o b ile ..................
Mechanics and repairmen, radio and T V ..............
M illw rig hts..................................................................
Painters, construction and m aintenance................
Plumbers and pipefitters .........................................
Tool and diemakers and s e tte r s ..............................
Operatives and kindred ..................................................
Attendants, auto service and p a rk in g ....................
Bus, truck and tractor drivers..................................
Laundry and dry cleaning o p eratives.....................
Meatcutters ...............................................................
Welders and flame-cutters .......................................
Service workers, except private h ou sehold ..................
Practical nurses .........................................................
Waiters and waitresses .............................................
Laborers, except farm and m in e ....................................




263,202
5,020
9,870
6,288
20,244
3,543
25,317
396,064
3,485
13,394
9,589
88,470
221,682
506,537
6,933
9,824
38,043
11,080
19,081
10,760
47,731
33,700
4,073
7,432
19,394
15,268
18,011
705,773
13,151
84,626
20,426
9,389
25,416
230,381
6,380
38,273
182,614

Percent change
1950-60

1960

1950

118,300
334
4,887
2,328
9,480
2,800
8,735
105,589
3,902
12,832
7,506
30,724
34,883
31,758
-9 6 8
1,929
-3 ,3 2 4
-9 1 5
1,224
2,327
-6 ,5 4 5
1,271
723
94
-2 ,7 5 6
1,342
3,657
25,601
3,815
6,291
-2 ,2 2 8
559
4,221
54,160
5,235
9,039
-5 ,3 8 7

Projected
131,738
351
6 ,2 1 1

4,588
10,263
2,794
16,129
113,689
3,312
14,030
10,066
26,284
40,801
48,039
-4 2 3
1,161
-3 ,9 6 0
634
1,493
2,975
-4 ,5 8 5
2,248
707

Actual
45
7
50
37
47
79
35
27
112

96
78
35
16
6

-1 4
20

-9

Projected
50
7
63
73
51
79
64
29
95
105
105
30
18
9
—6
12
-1 0
6

- 8
6

8

22

28

-1 4
4
18

1 ,0 2 0

1

-1 ,7 3 7
1,565
1,621
48,026
5,037
14,962
-2 ,8 0 8
181
7,379
60,901
4,905
9,479
-2 0 ,5 8 5

-1 4
9
20

4
29
7
-1 1

-1 0

7
17
14
-9
10

9
7
38
18
-1 4

6

2

17
24
82
24

29
26
77

25
-1 1

” 3

13

Table 8.

Projections and actual em ploym ent changes in Georgia, by selected occupation, 1950-60
Employment
Occupation

Actual
Professional, technical, and k in d re d .............................
Chemists ....................................................................
Draftsmen ..................................................................
Engineers, e le ctrica l..................................................
Nurses, professional..................................................
Technicians, medical and d e n ta l.............................
Managers, officials and proprietors, except farm . . . .
Clerical and k in d re d ........................................................
Bank tellers ...............................................................
C a sh ie rs ......................................................................
Office machine op erators.........................................
Secretaries, stenographers, and ty p is ts ..................
Salesworkers ....................................................................
Craftsmen, foremen, and kin d red ..................................
Bakers ........................................................................
Brickmasons, stonemasons and tilesetters ...........
C a rp e n te rs ..................................................................
Compositors and typesetters ..................................
Electricians ...............................................................
L in e m e n ......................................................................
Machinists ..................................................................
Mechanics and repairmen, a u to m o b ile ..................
Mechanics and repairmen, radio and T V ..............
M illw rig h ts..................................................................
Painters, construction and m aintenance................
Plumbers and pipefitters ................................. . . .
Tool and diemakers and setters ..............................
Operatives and kindred .................................... .............
Attendants, auto service and p a rk in g ....................
Bus, truck and tractor drivers..................................
Laundry and dry cleaning o p eratives....................
Meatcutters ...............................................................
Welders and flame-cutters .......................................
Service workers, except private hou seh old ..................
Practical nurses ........................................................
Waiters and waitresses .............................................
Laborers, except farm and m in e ....................................

14




78,035
526
956
359
5,333
1,326
89,497
107,718
886

4,486
1,620
23,419
74,807
128,438
1,458
4,160
22,444
1,966
4,494
3,619
5,493
14,865
1,182
397
7,766
4,050
193
248,211
5,024
35,058
11,988
2,549
2,513
79,282
3,249
9,926
93,919

Percent change
1950-60

1960

1950

39,592
200

983
1,509
3,641
1,213
25,738
54,557
1,295
4,076
2,847
15,114
17,084
32,900
17
1,323
-1 ,9 4 5
588
1,593
1,559
998
1,495
931
197
-4 6
602
644
46,848
4,041
10,793
-1 ,4 5 2
330
2,578
27,605
1,364
3,446
-8 ,0 6 9

Projected
37,493
84
836
237
2,036
822
15,782
55,460
1,149
5,657
2,492
11,233
23,265
35,081
286
918
-8 5 9
420
1,279
1,324
871
5,549
623
50
30
897
184
44,573
3,259
12,235
-1 ,6 2 9
200

1,817
22,187
410
3,254
-4 ,1 3 9

Actual
51
38
103
420
68

91
29
51
146
91
176
65
23
26

Projected
48
16
87
66

38
62
18
51
130
126
154
48
31
27

1

20

32
-9
30
35
43
18

22

10

79
50
-1

13
334
19
80
31
-1 2

13
10,3
35
42
35
-9

-4
21

28
37
16
37
53
13
0
22

95
18
65
35
-1 4
8

72
28
13
33
-4

Table 9.

Projections and actual em ploym ent changes in Virginia, by selected occupation, 1950-60
Employment
Occupation

Actual
Professional, technical, and k in d re d .............................
Chemists ....................................................................
Draftsmen .................................................................
Engineers, e le ctrica l..................................................
Nurses, professional..................................................
Technicians, medical and d e n ta l.............................
Managers, officials and proprietors, except farm . . . .
Clerical and k in d re d ........................................................
Bank t e lle r s ...............................................................
C a sh ie rs ......................................................................
Office machine operators.........................................
Secretaries, stenographers, and t y p is t s ..................
Salesworkers ....................................................................
Craftsmen, foremen, and k in d red ..................................
Bakers ........................................................................
Brickmasons, stonemasons and tilesetters ...........
C a rp en ters..................................................................
Compositors and typesetters ..................................
Electricians ...............................................................
Lin e m e n ......................................................................
Machinists ..................................................................
Mechanics and repairmen, a u to m o b ile ..................
Mechanics and repairmen, radio and T V ..............
M illw rights..................................................................
Painters, construction and m aintenance................
Plumbers and pipefitters .........................................
Tool and diemakers and setters .............................
Operatives and kindred ..................................................
Attendants, auto service and p a rk in g ....................
Bus, truck and tractor drivers..................................
Laundry and drycleaning operatives.......................
Meatcutters ........................... ...................................
Welders and flame-cutters .......................................
Service workers, except private ho u seh o ld ..................
Practical nurses .........................................................
Waiters and waitresses .............................................
Laborers, except farm and m in e ....................................




94,723
1,219
2,443
2,321
7,082
1,216
89,308
129,057
1,073
4,228
1,767
33,926
72,000
152,022
1,400
4,007
23,696
2,395
7,402
4,259
7,837
13,964
1,346
774
9,472
6 ,6 8 6

259
223,314
4,912
37,529
10,114
2,191
3,339
75,259
3,220
12,296
87,917

Percent change
1950-60

1960

1950

59,006
152
1,182
2,173
4,795
1,183
16,989
59,177
1,644
5,120
2,289
20,422
21,967
25,527
-7 1
1,401
-2 ,7 3 6
388
1,048
1,699
223
1,038
884
94
225
1,095
142
17,585
3,807
4,587
-1 ,0 1 4
456
2,032
26,267
740
2,937
-3 2 ,6 6 9

Projected
53,257
176
1,614
1,343
3,593
964
15,568
54,855
1,266
5,239
2,215
13,754
23,750
31,308
27
495
-1 ,5 8 9
689
1,467
1,764
258
1,931
699
174
-2 6 5
1,365
143
23,072
2,556
10,603
-1 ,1 8 5
222

2,561
24,441
1,286
4,433
-6 ,9 2 4

Actual
62
12

48
94
68

97
19
46
153
121

130
60
31
17
-5
35
-1 2

16
14
40
3
7
66

Projected
56
14
66

58
51
79
17
43
118
124
125
41
33
21
2
12

-7
29
20

41
3
14
52

12

22

2

-3

16
55

20

55

8

10

78

52
28

12
-1 0
21

61
35
23
24
-3 7

-1 2
10

77
32
40
36
-8

15

Table 10.

Projections and actual em ploym ent changes in West Virg inia by selected occupation, 1950*60
Employment
Occupation

Actual
Professional, technical, and k in d re d ..............................
Chemists ....................................................................
Draftsmen ..................................................................
Engineers, e le ctrica l..................................................
Nurses, p rofessio nal..................................................
Technicians, medical and d e n ta l..............................
Managers, officials and proprietors, except f a r m ___
Clerical and k in d re d ........................................................
Bank tellers ...............................................................
C a s h ie r s ......................................................................
Office machine op erato rs.........................................
Secretaries, stenographers, and ty p is ts ..................
Sa le w o rk e rs......................................................................
Craftsmen, foremen, and k in d red ..................................
Bakers ........................................................................
Brickmasons, stonemasons and tilesetters ...........
C a rp e n te rs ..................................................................
Compositors and typesetters ..................................
Electricians ...............................................................
L in e m e n ......................................................................
Machinists ..................................................................
Mechanics and repairmen, a u to m o b ile ..................
Mechanics and repairmen, radio and T V ..............
M illw rig hts..................................................................
Painters, construction and m aintenance................
Plumbers and pipefitters .........................................
Tool and diemakers and setters .............................
Operatives and kindred ..................................................
Attendants, auto service and p a rk in g .....................
Bus, truck and tractor d rivers..................................
Laundry and dry cleaning o p eratives....................
Meatcutters ...............................................................
Welders and flame-cutters .......................................
Service workers, except private hou seh old ..................
Practical nurses .........................................................
Waiters and waitresses .............................................
Laborers, except farm and m in e ....................................

16




45,813
927
699
673
3,614
610
46,427
53,104
467
2,204
565
10,354
38,715
90,537
802
1,808
9,130
934
6,480
1,937
4,584
6,556
436
980
3,109
3,466
330
195,118
2,642
21,332
3,817
1,275
2,816
36,590
1,059*
7,164
39,744

Percent change
1950-60

1960

1950

9,777
179
127
49
910
553
—5,241
5,885
208
1,577
669
2,599
1,302
-9 ,661
-2 4 1
-2 6 8
-2 ,7 9 5
49
-1 ,231
167
-1 ,3 8 8
-5 5 7
450
193
-6 3 7
-1 7 9
54
-6 6 ,3 2 0
1,146
-2 ,3 7 6
-8 0 3
-8 1
426
5,303
833
124
-6 ,5 0 7

Projected
10,629
44
249
93
1,342
375
-3 ,7 6 6
7,822
338
1,940
479
1 ,2 2 2

2,090
-6,641
-1 5 0
-1 6 5
-2 ,6 2 2
28
-1 ,1 4 6
402
-9 3 3
-5 7 1
211

105
-7 6 0
-1 3 7
29
-6 7 ,6 4 2
1,118
109
-1 ,0 9 2
-1 4 3
544
4,300
509
543
-9 ,2 2 5

Actual
21

19
18
7
25
91
-1 1
11

45
72
118
25
3
-1 1

-3 0
-1 5
-3 1
5
-1 9
9
-3 0
-9
103
20
-2 0

-5
16
-3 4
43

Projected
23
5
36
14
37
61
- 8

15
72
88

85
12

5
-7
-1 9
-9
-2 9
3
-1 8
21
-2 0

-9
48
11

-2 4
-4
9
-3 5
42

-1 1

1

-2 1

-2 9

- 6

15
14
79

-1 1

19
12

48

2

8

-1 6

-2 3

Table 11.

Projections and actual em ploym ent changes in V erm o n t, by selected occupation, 1950-60
Employment
Occupation

Actual
Professional, technical, and k in d re d ..............................
Chemists ....................................................................
Draftsmen ..................................................................
Engineers, e le ctrica l..................................................
Nurses, professional..................................................
Technicians, medical and d e n ta l..............................
Managers, officials and proprietors, except farm . . . .
Clerical and k in d re d .........................................................
Bank tellers ...............................................................
C a sh ie rs ......................................................................
Office machine op erators.........................................
Secretaries, stenographers, and ty p is ts ..................
Salesworkers ...................................................................
Craftsmen, foremen, and kin d red ..................................
Bakers ........................................................................
Brickmasons, stonemasons and tilesetters ...........
C a rp en ters..................................................................
Compositors and typesetters ..................................
Electricians ...............................................................
Lin e m e n ......................................................................
Machinists ..................................................................
Mechanics and repairmen, a u to m o b ile ..................
Mechanics and repairmen, radio and T V ..............
M illw rights..................................................................
Painters, construction and m aintenance................
Plumbers and pipefitters .........................................
Tool and diemakers and setters ..............................
Operatives and kindred ..................................................
Attendants, auto service and p a rk in g ....................
Bus, truck and tractor d rivers..................................
Laundry and dry cleaning o p eratives....................
Meatcutters ...............................................................
Welders and flame-cutters ......................................
Service workers, except private h ou seh old ..................
Practical nurses .........................................................
Waiters and waitresses .............................................
Laborers, except farm and m in e ....................................




11,745
53
334
136
1,470
155
11,786
13,967
210

405
86

2,834
8,077
17,571
199
186
2,314
406
556
528
1,145
2,085
107
116
1,006
728
163
25,985
493
3,772
595
274
194
9,331
452
1,574
8,174

Percent change
1950-60

1960

1950

3,944
-1 1

67
11

190
161
-7 2
3,046
150
423
125
1,154
1,071
979
-2 1

9
-1 5 5
-1 3
-7
118
240
7
119
3
-2 4 5
-2 8
114
-6 7 6
190
280
4
93
89
2,887
227
641
-1 ,5 5 0

Projected
3,957
-4
208
65
567
97
523
3,505
174
424
90
604
1,307
915
-1 8
30
-1 6 1

Actual
34
-2 1
20
8

13
104
-1
22

71
104
145
41
13
6
-1 1

66

5
-7
-3

30

-1

68

16
-3 3 8
29
2

-5 4
85
42
-6 4 9
254
441
-5 2
1

97
2,165
211

583
-1 ,4 4 3

22

Projected
34
-8

62
48
39
63
4
25
83
105
105
21

16
5
-9
16
-7
16
5
13

21

1

0

-1 6
27

111

3
-2 4
-4
70
-3
39
7
1

34
46
31
50
41
-1 9

2

-5
12

26
-3
52
12

-9
0

50
23
47
37
-1 8

17

Table 12. Average deviation o f test results
fro m actual em p loym ent in 9 m etropolitan
a rea s1
1950
population

SM SA

Los Angeles-Long Beach . . 4,367,911
Washington, D .C ................... 1,464,089
B altim ore.............................. 1,405,399
Miami ..................................
495,084
O m a h a ..................................
366,395
Phoenix ................................
331,770
Trenton ................................
229,561
Spokane ................................
221,561
Baton R o u g e .......................
158,236

Average
percent

Table 13. Percent difference between actual and estimated change
in em ploym ent in selected occupations, 1950-60, nine m etropolitan
areas
Percent
Differences

Los Angeles- D.C.Balti­ M i­ Oma­ Tren­ Spo­ Baton Phoe­
Long Beach Md. Va. more ami ha
ton kane Rouge nix

deviation
10.5
1 1 .2
9.7
1 1 .1
1 1 .2
16.6
13.2
12.7
13.0

0 -10
11 -2 0
21-30
31-40
41-50
51-60
61 and

___
___
___
___
___
___
over

16
11
3
5
0
0
2

23
5
0
4
1
3
1

24
9
1
1
1
1
0

16
7
3
3
3
1
4

21
11
1
1
0
1
2

20

19
7
6
3
.0
0
2

9
2
1
3
1
1

18
7
1
5
1
3
2

3
3
3
2
2
3
21

1 Mean difference from 100.0 percent, ignoring
sign.

Table 14. Projections and actual em ploym en t changes in Long Beach-Los Angeles, Calif, by selected occu pation ,
1950-60
Employment
Occupation

I960

1950

Actual
Professional, technical, and k in d re d ..............................
Chemists ....................................................................
Draftsmen ..................................................................
Engineers, e le c tric a l..................................................
Nurses, p rofessio nal..................................................
Technicians, medical and d e n ta l..............................
Managers, officials and proprietors, except farm . . . .
Clerical and k in d re d .........................................................
Bank tellers ...............................................................
C a sh ie rs ......................................................................
Office machine op erato rs.........................................
Secretaries, stenographers, and t y p is t s ..................
Salesworkers ....................................................................
Craftsmen, foremen, and k in d re d ..................................
Bakers ........................................................................
Brickmasons, stonemasons and tilesetters ...........
C a rp e n te rs ..................................................................
Compositors and typesetters ..................................
Electricians ...............................................................
L in e m e n ......................................................................
Machinists ..................................................................
Mechanics and repairmen, a u to m o b ile ..................
Mechanics and repairmen, radio and T V ..............
M illw rig hts..................................................................
Painters, construction and m aintenance................
Plumbers and pipefitters .........................................
Tool and diemakers and setters ..............................
Operatives and kindred ..................................................
Attendants, auto service and p a rk in g ....................
Bus, truck and tractor drivers..................................
Laundry and dry cleaning o p e ra tive s....................
Meatcutters ...............................................................
Welders and flame-cutters ......................... .............
Service workers, except private ho u seh o ld ..................
Practical nurses .........................................................
Waiters and waitresses .................................. ..
Laborers, except farm and m in e ....................................

18




207,196
2,266
5,515
4,974
16,999
3,814
203,406
253,673
3,173
10,266
7,328
63,443
157,476
265,659
3,907
3,236
30,604
5,617
11,546
9,057
19,269
19,816
3,795
731
16,869
8,762
6,083
293,627
9,890
42,507
13,668
6,206
8,614
145,119
6,129
25,805
78,507

162,386
700
7,295
12,330
9,978
3,706
47,097
194,590
3,621
9,780
11,176
49,407
54,193
100,628
529
1,116
-4 ,6 3 0
1,635
3,786
3,939
14,061
5.008
997
10 2
1,347
2,698
3,040
150,130
5,806
14,784
666
859
6,555
58,249
1,678
8,821
15,918

„

Projected
173,101
815
9,013
9,142
9,647
2,956
59,484
183,455
5,457
1 0 ,2 1 0
14,004
45,213
63,513
114,039
952
507
-8 9 1
1,381
4,124
5,011
11,268
6,690
2,630
521
211
2,119
5,159
158,883
5,015
16,265
291
909
9,735
58,423
5,114
11,286
10,729

Percent change
1950*60

Actual
78
31
132
248
59
97
23
77
114
95
153
78
34
38
14
34
-1 5
29
33
43
73
25
26
14
8
31
50
51
59
35
5
14
76
40
27
34
20

Projected
84
36
163
184
57
78
29
72
172
99
191
71
40
43
24
16
-3
25
36
55
58
34
69
71
1
24
85
54
51
38
2
15
113
40
83
44
14

Table 15.

Projections and actual em ploym ent changes in W ashington, D .C ., b y selected occu pation , 1950-60
Employment
Occupation

Actual
Professional, technical, and k in d re d ..............................
Chemists ....................................................................
Draftsmen ..................................................................
Engineers, e le ctrica l..................................................
Nurses, professional..................................................
Technicians, medical and d e n ta l..............................
Managers, officials and proprietors, except farm . . . .
Clerical and k in d re d .........................................................
Bank tellers ...............................................................
C a sh ie rs ......................................................................
Office machine op erators.........................................
Secretaries, stenographers, and ty p is ts ..................
S alew orkers......................................................................
Craftsmen, foremen, and kin d red ..................................
Bakers ........................................................................
Brickmasons, stonemasons and tilesetters ...........
C a rp en ters.................................................................
Compositors and typesetters ..................................
Electricians ...............................................................
Lin em en ......................................................................
Machinists .................................................................
Mechanics and repairmen, a u to m o b ile ..................
Mechanics and repairmen, radio and T V ..............
M illw rights........................................................ * . . .
.
Painters, construction and m aintenance................
Plumbers and pipefitters .........................................
Tool and diemakers and setters ..............................
Operatives and kindred ..................................................
Attendants, auto service and p a rk in g .....................
Bus, truck and tractor drivers..................................
Laundry and dry cleaning op eratives.....................
Meatcutters ...............................................................
Welders and flame-cutters ......................................
Service workers, except private hou seh old ..................
Practical nurses ........................................................
Waiters and waitresses .............................................
Laborers, except farm and m in e ....................................




98,519
1,344
3,093
3,224
5,415
1,367
50,960
170,756
737
3,198
4,075
54,304
39,253
73,107
1,085
3,392
8,081
3,228
3,360
2,984
4,052
5,484
1,303
25
4,918
3,732
285
54,309
2,517
12,157
5,752
1,653
720
62,940
1,844
8,491
29,346

Percent change
1950-60

1960

1950

52,820
531
807
2,260
2,304
1,031
19,152
23,754
640
2,451
1,059
12,713
10,345
7,809
-1 7 2
-3 1 4
-1 ,2 3 6
24
125
996
-1 ,2 9 9
401
-111
12
353
-4 8
-4 9
3,621
556
1,711
3,138
32
268
9,043
686
401
-2 ,3 4 0

Projected

Actual

49,991
26
1,370
1,224
1,882
769
7,411
41,820
588
3,514
3,609
13,323
12,598
9,413
92
242
-1 ,0 9 5
-3 0 7
518
813
-5 2 6
19
364
7
-2 0 1
421
28
5,905
1,040
1,937
-7 1 9
557
256
12,349
888
331
-2 6 2

54
40
26
70
43
75
38
14
87
77
26
23
26
11
-1 6
-9
-1 5
1
4
33
-3 2
7
-9
48
7
-1
-1 7
7
22
14
55
2
37
14
37
5
-8

Projected
51
2
44
38
35
56
15
24
80
110
89
25
32
13
8
7
-1 4
-10
15
27
-1 3
0
28
28
-4
11
10
11
41
16
-1 3
34
36
20
48
4
-1

19

Table 16.

Projections and actual em ploym ent changes in Baltim ore, M d ., by selected occupation, 1950-60
Employment
Occupation

Actual
Professional, technical, and k in d re d ..............................
Chemists ....................................................................
Draftsmen ..................................................................
Engineers, e le ctrica l..................................................
Nurses, p rofessional..................................................
Technicians, medical and d e n ta l.............................
Managers, officials and proprietors, except farm . . . .
Clerical and k in d re d ........................................................
Bank tellers ...............................................................
C a sh ie rs ......................................................................
Office machine operators.........................................
Secretaries, stenographers- and ty p is ts ..................
S a le w orkers......................................................................
Craftsmen, foremen, and k in d re d ..................................
Bakers ........................................................................
Brickmasons, stonemasons and tilesetters ...........
C a rp e n te rs..................................................................
Compositors and typesetters ..................................
Electricians ...............................................................
L in e m e n ......................................................................
Machinists ..................................................................
Mechanics and repairmen, a u to m o b ile ..................
Mechanics and repairmen, radio and T V
M illw rig hts..................................................................
Painters, construction and m aintenance................
Plumbers and pipefitters .........................................
Tool and diemakers and setters .............................
Operatives and kindred ..................................................
Attendants, auto service and p a rk in g ....................
Bus, truck and tractor drivers..................................
Laundry and dry cleaning o p eratives....................
M e a tc u tte rs......... ......................................................
Welders and flame-cutters .......................................
Service workers, except private hou seh old ..................
Practical nurses .........................................................
Waiters and waitresses .............................................
Laborers, except farm and m in e ....................................

20




48,258
993
1,825
1,430
4,073
843
47,873
79,297
603
2,389
2,109
18,642
39,577
87,587
1,496
2,427
7,754
2,358
3,891
1,980
6,495
5,134
1 ,1 2 0
524
4,174
4,095
1,205
104,542
1,747
12,242
4,917
1,670
3,484
46,569
1,421
6,821
40,263

Percent change
1950-60

1960

1950

25,817
-1 1 6
1,0 0 2
1,927
1,924
692
381
28,437
68 8
2,622
2,058
6,767
8,042
7,036
-2 5 6
-1 1 3
-3 3 5
-1 4 5
359
706
-1 ,0 6 2
659
-1 3 3
-9 0
-1 2 7
-2 6 7
178
9,965
1,038
2,343
-7 6 5
-3 0 5
779
9,064
231
648
-5 ,5 5 2

Projected
24,881
23
1,133
1,158
1,637
658
2,186
27,445
586
2,260
2,400
6,132
5,557
11,038
-3 2
234
-1 ,1 6 5
0
395
553
-3 9
773
267
156
-5 3 8
316
216
11,986
1,135
1,320
-7 2 6
-1 8 6
1,027
7,137
521
1,286
-3 ,4 7 0

Actual
53
-12
55
135
47
82
1
36
114
110
98
36
20
8
-1 7
-5
-4
-6
9
36
-1 6
13
-12
-1 7
-3
-7
15
10
59
19
-1 6
-1 8
22
19
16
10
-1 4

Projected
52
2
62
81
40
78
5
35
97
95
114
33
14
13
-2
10
-1 5
0
10
28
-1
15
24
30
-1 3
8
18
11
65
11
-1 5
-11
29
15
37
19
-9

Table 17.

Projections and actual em ploym ent changes in M iam i, Fla, by selected occu pation , 1950-60
Employment
Percent change
1950-60

1960

Occupation
1950
Actual
Professional, technical, and k in d re d .............................
Chemists ....................................................................
Draftsmen ..................................................................
Engineers, e le ctrica l..................................................
Nurses, professional..................................................
Technicians, medical and d e n ta l..............................
Managers, officials and proprietors, except farm . . . .
Clerical and k in d re d ........................................................
Bank tellers ...............................................................
C a sh ie rs ......................................................................
Office machine op erators.........................................
Secretaries, stenographers, and t y p is t s ..................
Sale w o rk e rs ......................................................................
Craftsmen, foremen, and k in d re d ..................................
Bakers ........................................................................
Brickmasons, stonemasons and tilesetters ...........
C a rp e n te rs ........................................... ......................
Compositors and typesetters ..................................
Electricians ...............................................................
L in em en ......................................................................
Machinists ..................................................................
Mechanics and repairmen, a u to m o b ile ..................
Mechanics and repairmen, radio and T V ..............
M illw rights.................................................................
Painters, construction and m aintenance................
Plumbers and pipefitters .........................................
Tool and diemakers and setters .............................
Operatives and kindred ..................................................
Attendants, auto service and p a rk in g ....................
Bus, truck and tractor drivers..................................
Laundry and dry cleaning op eratives....................
Meatcutters ...............................................................
Welders and flame-cutters ......................................
Service workers, except private h ou sehold ..................
Practical nurses ........................................................
Waiters and waitresses .............................................
Laborers, except farm and m in e ....................................




19,501
63
262
293
1,939
525
28,213
25,904
251
1,933
274
6,315
19,369
30,038
539
996
4,763
577
1,378
1,127
522
2,409
468
8
2 ,1 1 0
891
65
21,713
1,146
4,903
2,551
751
281
27,368
591
5,805
11,331

19,724
71
497
162
1,765
538
12,198
28,019
550
1,996
897
6,883
13,660
16,939
283
-2 9
-5 5 1
10 1
360
703
510
1,470
536
8
806
87
232
18,734
735
3,173
310
249
577
15,005
429
2,069
3,483

Projected
19,542
44
397
298
2,149
721
13,102
29,199
68 6
3,296
687
6,656
14,137
16,799
277
176
-3 1
198
572
1,225
393
1,614
545
8
95
202
135
17,702
1,050
2,927
489
336
393
15,019
501
2,131
3,777

Actual

Projected

10 1
113
190
55
91
10 2
43
108
219
103
327
109
71
56
53
-3
-12
18
26
62
98
61
115
100
38
10
357
86
64
65
12
33
205
55
73
36
31

100
70
152
10 2
111
137
46
113
273
171
251
105
73
56
51
18
-1
34
42
109
75
67
116
100
5
23
208
82
92
60
19
45
140
55
85
37
33

21

Table 18.

Projections and actual em ploym ent changes in Om aha, Nebraska, by selected occupation, 1950-60
Em ploym ent
Occupation

Actual
Professional, technical, and k in d re d ..............................
Chemists ....................................................................
Draftsmen ..................................................................
Engineers, E lectrica l..................................................
Nurses, professional
Technicians, medical and d e n ta l..............................
Managers, officials and proprietors, except farm . . . .
Clerical and k in d re d .........................................................
Bank tellers ...............................................................
C a sh ie rs ......................................................................
Office machine operators.........................................
Secretaries, stenographers, and t y p is t s ..................
Salesworkers ....................................................................
Craftsmen, foremen, and k in d re d ..................................
Bakers .........................................................................
Brickmasons, stonemasons and tilesetters
.........
C a rp e n te rs ..................................................................
Compositors and typesetters ..................................
Electricians ...............................................................
Linemen ....................................................................
Machinists ..................................................................
Mechanics and repairmen, a u to m o b ile ..................
Mechanics and repairmen, radio and T V ..............
M illw rig hts..................................................................
Painters, construction and m aintenance................
Plumbers and pipefitters .........................................
Tool and diemakers and setters ..............................
Operatives and kindred ..................................................
Attendants, auto service and p a rk in g ....................
Bus, truck and tractor d rivers..................................
Laundry and dry cleaning op e ra tive s.....................
Meatcutters ...............................................................
Welders and flam e-cutters........................................
Service workers, except private h o u seh o ld ..................
Practical nurses .........................................................
Waiters and waitresses .............................................
Laborers, except farm and m in e ....................................

22




13,679
121
322
274
1,384
272
14,236
27,131
145
749
900
6,044
12,571
20,192
420
453
1,980
527
792
612
1,032
1,925
158
98
1,194
667
32
21,823
557
4,754
1,188
492
708
13,396
314
2,300
11,845

Percent change
1950-60

I960

1950

5,572
28
137
118
673
232
1,145
6,449
146
848
691
1,780
1,030
2,862
-6 0
121
32
-2 1
213
339
66
211
99
5
-2 0 8
208
167
5,500
361
184
-1 4 3
-7 8
249
3,154
228
316
-3 ,2 5 2

1

Projected

Actual

Projected

6,656
4
351
261
853
245
631
7,736
127
632
872
1,766
1,962
3,307
-5 2
105
-4 7
47
144
320
15
185
10 0
6
-1 4
108
22
3,425
301
279
-2 0 9
-4
375
3,338
341
364
-1 ,7 4 4

41
23
43
43
49
85
8
24
10 1
113
77
29
8
14
-1 4
27
2
-4
27
55
6
11
63
5
-1 7
31
522
25
65
4
-12
-1 6
35
24
73
14
-2 7

49
3
109
95
62
90
4
29
88
84
97
29
16
16
-12
23
-2
9
18
52
1
10
63
6
-1
16
69
16
54
6
-1 8
-1
53
25
109
16
-1 5

Table 19.

Projections and actual em ploym ent changes in T rento n, New Jersey, by selected occupation, 1950-60
Em ploym ent
Occupation

Actual
Professional, technical, and k in d re d ..............................
Chemists ......... ..........................................................
Draftsmen ..................................................................
Engineers, e le c tric a l..................................................
Nurses, professional..................................................
Technicians, medical and d e n ta l..............................
Managers, officials and proprietors, except farm . . . .
Clerical and k in d re d .........................................................
Bank tellers ................................................................
C a sh ie rs ......................................................................
Office machine operators.........................................
Secretaries, stenographers, and t y p is t s ..................
Salesworkers ....................................................................
Craftsmen, foremen, and kin d red ..................................
Bakers ........................................................................
Brickmasons, stonemasons and tilesetters ...........
C a rp e n te rs..................................................................
Compositors and typesetters ..................................
Electricians ...............................................................
L in em en ......................................................................
Machinists ..................................................................
Mechanics and repairmen, a u to m o b ile ..................
Mechanics and repairmen, radio and T V ..............
M illw rig hts..................................................................
Painters, construction and m aintenance................
Plumbers and pipefitters .........................................
Tool and diemakers and s e tte r s ..............................
Operatives and kindred ..................................................
Attendants, auto service and p a rk in g ....................
Bus, truck and tractor drivers..................................
Laundry and dry cleaning o p eratives....................
Meatcutters .................. ............................................
Welders and flame-cutters.................................... .. .
Service workers, except private household ................
Practical nurses ........................................................
Waiters and waitresses .............................................
Laborers, except farm and m in e ....................................




10,052
181
302
210
810
188
8,816
14,515
108
337
429
4,072
5,856
13,482
250
415
1,113
299
505
304
1,141
909
173
92
579
519
428
25,612
284
2,269
833
324
312
8,005
187
964
5,927

Percent change
1950-60

1960

1950

5,115
78
201
160
366
52
-5 1 2
3,566
47
201
282
1,365
685
1,119
-1 8
-10
18
39
53
186
-2 9 8
22
-4 7
-10
54
139
69
-3 ,1 5 9
47
132
-1 1 3
-5 2
114
2,090
-7
365
-9 1 0

Projected

Actual

4,539
15
161
132
411
169
299
3,967
74
286
380
1,031
659
768
-7
83
-10 2
40
38
195
-2 1 5
-5 8
18
9
-1 3
67
-8 8
-3 ,4 1 1
83
68
-9 9
-5 3
30
1,855
142
236
-8 5 9

51
43
67
76
45
28
-6
25
44
60
66
34

fl
8
-7
-2
2
13
11
61
-2 6
2
-2 7
-11
9
27
16
-12
17
6
-1 4
-1 6
37
26
-4
38
-1 5

Projected
45
8
53
63
51
90
3
27
69
85
89
25
11
6
-3
20
-9
13
8
64
-1 9
-6
10
10
-2
13
-2 1
-1 3
29
3
-12
-1 6
10
23
76
24
-1 4

23

Table 20.

Projections and actual em ploym ent changes in Spokane, W ashington, by selected occupation, 1950-60
Employment
Occupation

Actual
Professional, technical, and k in d re d .............................
Chemists ....................................................................
D ra fts m e n ..................................................................
Engineers, ele ctrica l..................................................
Nurses, professional..................................................
Technicians, medical and dental ...........................
Managers, officials and proprietors, except farm . . . .
Clerical and kindred ......................................................
Bank te lle r s ...............................................................
C a sh iers......................................................................
Office machine operators.........................................
Secretaries, stenographers and typists ..................
Salesworkers ....................................................................
Craftsmen, foremen, and kindred ................................
B a k e rs ........................................................................
Brickmasons, stonemasons and tile s e tte rs ...........
C a rp en ters.................................................................
Compositors and typ esetters..................................
Electricians ...............................................................
Linemen ....................................................................
M a ch in is ts ..................................................................
Mechanics and repairmen, a u to m o b ile ..................
Mechanics and repairmen, radio and T V ................
M illw rights..................................................................
Painters, construction and m aintenance................
Plumbers and pipefitters .........................................
Tool and diemakers and s e tte rs ..............................
Operatives and kindred ..................................................
Attendants, auto service and p a rk in g ....................
Bus, truck and tractor drivers ................................
Laundry and dry cleaning operatives
..................
M ea tcu tters...............................................................
Welders and flame-cutters ......................................
Service workers, except private household..................
Practical nurses ........................................................
Waiters and w aitresses.............................................
Laborers, except farm and mine ..................................

24




7,909
62
104
167
873
200
9,280
11,492
131
492
238
2,808
7,808
12,245
227
161
1,744
202
523
471
434
1,182
78
104
669
353
21
11,598
425
2,610
691
293
263
7,990
329
1,464
4,626

Percent change
1950-60

1960

1950

3,351
2
64
39
425
92
1,664
3,709
142
423
238
710
893
511
-4 9
20
-4 3 6
79
-6
84
-6 8
-8 3
10 0
-2 2
-1 6 6
28
-1
295
164
-2 5
-1 3 3
-1 0 5
115
1,907
229
118
-4 1 6

Projected
3,788
4
66
62
315
133
433
3,795
113
486
278
891
1,451
1,113
-4 8
15
-2 0 3
-1 5
45
73
-2 3
52
44
23
-6 3
23
7
1,133
181
22 2
-1 4 7
29
130
2,545
403
79
-5 1 8

Actual

Projected

42
3
62
23
49
46
18
32
108
86
10 0
25
11
4
-2 2
12
-2 5
39

48
6
63
37
36
67
5
33
86
99
117
32
19
9
-2 1
9
-12
-7

-1
18
-1 6
-7
128
-2 1
-2 5
8
-5
3
39
-1
-1 9
-3 6
44
24
70
8
-9

9
16
-5
16
56
22
-9
7
33
10
43
9
-2 1
10
49
32
122
5
-11

Table 21.

Projections and actual em ploym ent changes in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, by selected occupation, 1950-60
Employment
Occupation

Percent change
1950-60

1960

1950
Actual

Professional, technical, and k in d re d .............................
Chemists ....................................................................
Draftsmen .................................................................
Engineers, e le ctrica l..................................................
Nurses, professional..................................................
Technicians, medical and d e n ta l.............................
Managers, officials and proprietors, except farm . . . .
Clerical and k in d re d ........................................................
Bank t e lle r s ......... ......................................................
C a sh ie rs ......................................................................
Office machine op erators.........................................
Secretaries, stenographers, and t y p is t s ..................
Sale w o rk e rs ......................................................................
Craftsmen, foremen, and kin d red ..................................
Bakers ........................................................................
Brickmasons, stonemasons and tilesetters ...........
C a rp en ters.................................................................
Compositors and typesetters ..................................
Electricians ...............................................................
Lin em en ......................................................................
Machinists .................................................................
Mechanics and repairmen, a u to m o b ile ..................
Mechanics and repairmen, radio and T V ..............
M illw rights.................................................................
Painters, construction and m aintenance................
Plumbers and pipefitters .........................................
Tool and diemakers and setters .............................
Operatives and kindred ..................................................
Attendants, auto service and p a rk in g ....................
Bus, truck and tractor drivers..................................
Laundry and drycleaning operatives.......................
Meatcutters ...............................................................
Welders and flame-cutters .......................................
Service workers, except private hou seh old ..................
Practical nurses .........................................................
Waiters and waitresses .............................................
Laborers, except farm and m in e ....................................




6 ,8 8 6
262
114
104
384
80
4,857
7,412
53
371
149
2,156
3,777
8,779
129
254
1,198
137
519
271
444
585
57
40
501
872
1
8,894
336
1,493
772
116
360
5,278
190
737
4,532

Projected

Actual

Projected

4,952
94
187
38
193
99
3,007
4,367
58
323
196
1,267
1,444
1,934
-4
105
-12 0
26
114
134
-2 2
40
87
6
50
36
-1
925
188
588
-1 3 5
82
261
2,651
45
185
45

4,512
1
109
44
209
69
1,464
4,247
75
528
205
1,015
1,721
2,424
8
67
18
46
135
139
-1 4
253
54
17
16
113
0
2,043
198
542
-3 4
19
99
2,651
59
314
320

72
36
164
37
50
124
62
59
109
87
132
59
38
22
-3
41
-10
19
22
49
-5
7
153
15
10
4
-10 0
10
56
39
-1 7
71
73
50
24
25
1

66
0
96
42
54
86
30
57
142
142
138
47
46
28
6
26
2
34
26
51
-3
43
95
43
3
13
0
23
59
36
-4
16
28
50
31
43
7

25

Table 22.

Projections and actual em ploym ent changes in Phoenix, A rizo n a , by selected occu pation , 1950-60
Employment
Occupation

Percent change
1950-60

1960

1950
Actual

Projected

Actual

Projected

22,701
97
842
1,0 0 1
1,838
356
17,705
26,791
459
1,982
755
6,933
15,994
27,335
328
957
3,068
430
1,047
1,080
1,152
2,241
377
54
1,533
1,029
296
24,783
1,364
5,000
1,128
453
963
14,787
443
2,664
9,356

25,115
58
637
849
1,634
355
20,293
32,251
548
2,895
1,235
8,090
15,449
24,675
307
782
2,218
446
1,088
969
778
2,136
208
38
1,440
869
484
22,468
1,541
4,224
987
619
853
14,838
632
2,641
6,982

432
606
1,203
981
343
375
313
392
560
511
532
377
380
574
328
731
629
297
503
532
960
456
967
900
462
651
688
582
539
500
292
283
883
355
306
349
538

478
363
910
832
305
374
359
472
668
746
870
439
367
518
307
597
455
308
523
477
648
435
533
633
434
550
1,126
527
609
422
256
387
783
356
436
346
402

9
Professional, technical, and kindred .............................
C h e m is ts ......................................................................
D raftsm en....................................................................
Engineers, electrical ..................................................
Nurses, professional....................................................
Technicians, medical and d e n t a l.............................
Managers, officials and proprietors, except f a r m .........
Clerical and kindred ........................................................
Bank te lle rs .................................................................
Cashiers........................................................................
Office machine operators .........................................
Secretaries, stenographers, and typists ..................
Salesw orkers.................................................... .................
Craftsmen, foremen, and k in d r e d ..................................
B a k e rs...........................................................................
Brickmasons, stonemasons and tilesetters ...........
Carpenters ..................................................................
Compositors and typesetters....................................
E le c tricia n s .................................................................
L in e m e n ......................................................................
M ach inists....................................................................
Mechanics and repairmen, automobile ..................
Mechanics and repairmen, radio and T V ................
Millwrights ..................................................................
Painters, construction and maintenance ................
Plumbers and p ip e fitte rs...........................................
Tool and diemakers and setters................................
Operatives and k in d r e d ....................................................
Attendants, auto service and parking ....................
Bus, truck and tractor d r iv e r s ..................................
Laundry and dry cleaning operatives.......................
M eatcutters..................................................................
Welders and flam e-cutters.........................................
Service workers, except private household ..................
Practical n u rs e s ...........................................................
Waiters and waitresses................................................
Laborers, except farm and mine . ..................................

26




5,259
16
70
10 2
536
95
5,653
6,834
82
388
142
1,841
4,209
4,764
10 0
131
488
145
208
203
12 0
491
39
6
332
158
43
4,260
253
1,0 0 1
386
160
109
4,163
145
763
1,739

C h a p te r II.

V a ria n c e s in O c c u p a tio n a l D e a th and
R e tir e m e n t R a te s 4 b y S t a t e

Introduction

For the Nation as a whole, over one-half of all new
entrants into the labor force are needed to replace
workers who die, retire, or leave the labor force for
other reasons. In Volume I, appendix A of TMN, the
Bureau presented national annual death and retirement
rates, by occupation and by sex, that State agencies
could use to compute the overall occupational demand.
These rates were calculated by applying age-specific
death and retirement rates by sex for the United States
to the number of workers in each occupation in the
United States in 1960. Thus, the number of losses in
each occupation, as a percent of employment in that
occupation, provided a national average rate. In addi­
tion, Volume I also described and presented examples of
how the standard working life table, together with State
occupational age distribution information from the
decennial census, might be used to develop occupational
death and retirement rates for the State.
During the past 3 years since the release of TMN,
many States preparing estimates of job openings from
death and retirements have used the national rates. This
procedure merely assumes that the State age distribution
generally followed the national age distribution for the
same occupation. Because of the importance of estimat­
ing job openings from this source, especially in States
expecting below-average growth, the Bureau examined
the accuracy of the attrition estimates based on national
age composition of each occupation by comparing them
to attrition estimates computed from the actual age
composition in each State. An effort also was made to
determine whether these differences could be identified
easily by examining factors such as the State’s median or
average age of the working population or the State’s
median age of a specific occupation, and comparing
them to national averages. If consistencies in such
relationships could be determined, then national rates
could be adjusted to fit the State’s particular age
differences and thereby localize the death and retire­
ment rates without developing death and retirement




rates by occupation for the State through the regular
procedures.
Test Results

As indicated earlier, Volume I of Tommorrow’s
presented a table of “ Estimated Death
and Retirement Rates for Selected Occupations, by Sex,
for Employed Workers in the United States.” (See
appendix A.) These rates were based on 1960 labor force
participation rates and age distributions. Many States
have used these national rates even though general age
and occupational age distributions vary from State to
State, as does the participation of women. To test the
effect of these differences on death and retirement rates,
occupational rates were computed for a selected group
of States and compared with national average rates.
Table 23 presents statistics for each of the States and for
the Nation as a whole to provide insight into the
possibility of adjusting the national rates to take into
account the overall age distribution of States. These data
were computed by age distribution for men and women
employed in each State as reported in the 1960 Census
to which were applied the age-specific separation rates
for men and women shown in Volume I, tables 14 and
16.
Although patterns are by no means consistent, data
do show that, as expected, death and retirement
rates tend to diverge from the U.S. rates in the same
direction as does the median age. However, the exact
shape of the age distribution also plays a part in
determining death and retirement rates. For example,
Missouri has a higher median age for both men and
women than does Nebraska, yet it has lower estimated
death and retirement rates in both cases. The contradic­
tion results because higher proportion of Nebraska’s
Manpower Needs

4 A lth o u g h th e te rm “ d e a th a n d r e tir e m e n t ra tes” is u se d , th e
d ata p re s e n te d h ere in c lu d e w ith d ra w a ls f r o m th e la b o r f o r c e f o r
all rea son s (e .g ., m arria ge, ch ild b e a r in g , e t c .) .

27

employed population is concentrated in the younger and
older age groups where withdrawals are higher.
Another factor affecting the combined men and
women death and retirement rates is the proportion of
employed women. Because of marriage and childbearing,
death and retirement rates for women are higher than
for men; the higher the percentage of women employed,
the higher will be the overall death and retirement rate,
excluding other factors. For example, in the District of
Columbia where median ages are not far different from
the national average, the death and retirement rate is
exceeded only by the State of Nebraska. The unusually
high rate for the District occurs principally because
women account for over 45 percent of the persons
employed in D.C. compared to less than 33 percent in
the United States as a whole.
Tables 24 and 25 present death and retirement rates
for men and women for selected States by occupation,
based on the 1960 Census and the age-specific separation
rates in Volume I. These data indicate that the use of the
U.S. average rate introduces a substantial error in
estimating some occupations in some States. For ex­
ample, the U.S. average for electrical engineers is
one-third less than the average in Georgia. Also, not all
State death and retirement rates diverge from the
national rate in the same direction as do the rates for
total employment. For example, although the death and
retirement rate for males in West Virginia, based on total
employment, exceeds that for the Nation, in only 14
cases have rates for the State been less than for the
Nation for the same occupation, and in an additional
eight occupations they are equal. Therefore, a procedure
that adjusts the annual death and retirement rates for an
occupation in the Nation as a whole, either by compar­
ing the median age of all workers in the State with those
in the United States, or by computing death and
retirement rates in the State for all workers and
adjusting occupations, will not produce accurate esti­
mates for every occupation in the State.
The potential implications of using national rather
than State death and retirement rates are shown for
Pennsylvania in table 28. Based on total employment,
the rates for both men and women are equal to the rates

28




for the Nation as a whole. The first column of table 28
shows estimated deaths and retirements for the 1950-60
decade if national rates had been applied. The second
column shows the estimated deaths and retirements
when rates were calculated specifically for the State.
Columns 3 and 4 show the numeric and percentage
differences between the two estimates. Discrepancies
range up to 27 percent; differences of 10 percent or
more are not uncommon. However, these results are for
a State which has death and retirement rates equal to
those for the Nation.
Tables 26 and 27 present estimated annual death and
retirement rates for men and women by selected
occupations for eight SMSA’s. Differences in the
dispersion of the SMSA rates from the national averages
were similar to dispersions shown by State rates.
Although SMSA’s in some instances have a smaller
population than States, the range of dispersion does not
appear significantly different.
Test conclusions

In general, the test results appeared to indicate that
for some States the use of national occupational rates
generally will result in acceptable estimates of attrition.
However, in others, especially those having belowaverage growth rates or above-average median age, the
development of specific rates appears warranted and
may significantly improve estimates of replacements.
Although there generally appears to be a relationship
between individual States and the Nation in median age
and in death and retirement rates, this relationship is by
no means highly predictable because of other factors,
such as the age distribution and the participation of
women in the labor force. No simple procedure exists
for adjusting national rates to account for differences
among States. Since more accurate estimates can be
made easily by repetitive calculations and applying
age-specific death and retirement rates to the actual age
composition of the members of each occupation in the
State, by sex, this procedure is recommended. It must be
recognized that this procedure has limitations as de­
scribed.

Table 23.

Comparison of estimated annual death and retirement rates by State, 1960

State

E m p lo y e d males
A n n u al death
and retirem ent
rate

M edian
age

E m p lo y e d females
A n n u al death
and retirem ent
rate

Median
age

Females as a
percent o f
em plo yed
po pu latio n

C o m b in e d
annual death
and retirem ent
rate
.0289

U nited S t a t e s .....................................

4 0 .6

.0196

40 .4

.0479

32.75

A labam a ...................................................
A l a s k a ........................................................
A r i z o n a ......................................................
Arkansas ...................................................
C alifo rn ia .................................................
C o lo r a d o ...................................................
C o n n e c t ic u t ..............................................
D e la w a r e ...................................................

39.7
38.5
38.6
41 .7
40.1

.0178
.0135
.0154

.0268

36.56
30.88

39.6
4 1 .2

.0181
.0199

39.9
41.1

30 .1 8
33 .0 2
32.46
34.17
33.24

.0238
.0246
.0293
.0271
.0281
.0293
.0275

D istrict o f C o l u m b i a .............................

4 0 .0
40.4

.0452
.0417
.0451
.0472
.0459
.0478
.0477
.0464

32 .8 5

.0216
.0178
.0187
.0197

39.1
36.1
39.4
41 .0
40 .4
39.6
41 .6

Flo rid a ......................................................
G e o r g ia .....................................................
H a w a ii........................................................

39 .9
38 .9
4 0 .5

.0182
.0168
.0157

39.9
38.7

.0475
.0447

45 .6 7
34.94

.0325
.0275

.0450
.0407

35.79
34.65

.0269
.0244

Idaho ..........................................................

40 .4
41.1
40.1
41.1

.0202
.0207

.0478
.0491

28.69
32.88

.0281
.0301

.0488
.0534

31 .1 3
30.26

.0287
.0320

I llin o is ........................................................
Indiana ......................................................
Iowa ...........................................................
K a n s a s ........................................................
K e n tu cky .................................................
Louisiana . , ..............................................
Maine ........................................................
M a r y la n d ...................................................
Massachusetts .........................................
M ichigan ...................................................
M innesota .................................................
M is s is s ip p i................................................
M is s o u r i.....................................................
M ontana ...................................................
N e b r a s k a ...................................................
Nevada .....................................................
New H a m p s h ire .......................................
New Jersey .................................. ..
New M ex ico ............................................
New Y o r k .................................................
N o rth C arolina .......................................
N o rth Dakota .........................................
O h io ..................................................... .. .
O k la h o m a .................................................
Oregon .....................................................
P e n n s y lv a n ia ............................................
R h o d e I s la n d ............................................
Sou th C arolin a .......................................
S o u th D akota ..........................................
Tennessee .................................................
T e x a s ..........................................................
Utah ..........................................................
V e r m o n t ...................................................
V i r g i n i a ......................................................
W a s h in g t o n ..............................................
West V irg in ia .........................................
W isconsin .................................................
W y o m in g ...................................................
SOURCE:

4 1 .2
40 .6
39.4
41.1
40 .0
4 1 .3
4 0 .2
4 0 .8
40 .7
4 1 .8
4 0 .9
4 1 .6
41 .0
41 .4
41 .5
38.1

.0196
.0227
.0228
.0202
.0165

36.9
40 .4
41.1
40.4
4 1 .6
4 1 .5
40 .2
39.1

.0511
.0484

31.18
29.41

.0316
.0285

.0451

31.44

.0255

.0176
.0214
.0183
.0215

42 .2
39.8
42.0
39,4
40 .5

.0505
.0452
.0509
.0475
.0536

33.42
33.28
36.14

.0207
.0224

39.5

.0464

33.61

.0293

41.7

.0500

32.97

.0315

.0213

40 .8
41.6
39.5

.0498
.0538
.0427
.0495

29.43

.0244
.0191
.0212

3 0 .9 2
33.06
36.26

.0296
.0335
.0269

32.52
29.87

.0213

4 2 .0
41.1

30.39
31.88

.0198
.0155
.0217
.0167

37.7

.0468
.0463

4 1 .7
38.1

.0493
.0444

34 .3 9
35.07

.0214
.0194
.0211
.0171

39.5
4 0 .3
41 .6
4 2 .0

.0525
.0487
.0484
.0489

28 .1 5
31.07
31.29
31 .8 3

.0200
.0205
.0157
.0234

40 .6
41.6
38.1
40 .8
39.2
39.7
38.0
42 .7

.0483
.0476
.0442
.0530
.0463
.0465
.0509
.0514

39.1
41 .2
40.7

.0460
.0481
.0478

32.52
35 .8 8
3 6 .6 5
29.08
32 .9 9
31.68
29.69
32 .7 5
33.66
31 .8 0
28.44

4 0 .8
40.1

.0506
.0474

4 2 .0
38.8
4 1 .0
4 0 .3
41 .2
41 .7
41.4
41 .6
38 .3
4 1 .3
40.1
39.8
38.3
41.1
39 .8
40.9
4 1 .2

.0189
.0188
.0175
.0216
.0179
.0196
.0205

4 0 .9
39.8

.0209
.0193

31.14
29.01

.0310
.0268
.0312
.0272
.0317

.0315
.0286
.0247
.0312
.0264
.0302
.0285
.0296
.0299
.0292
.0302
.0261
.0320
.0279
.0276
.0274
.0314
.0273
.0287
.0275
.0295
.0274

1960 Census o f Population.




29

Table 24.

Annual death and retirement rates for men. United States and selected States, by occupation, 1950-60
U nited
States

C a lifo rn ia

O h io

Pennsylvania

Georgia

V irg in ia

West
V irg in ia

V e rm o n t

T o t a l ............................................................................

2.0

1.8

1.9

2.0

1.7

1.8

2.1

2.2

Professional, technical and k i n d r e d ...........................

1.6
1.1
0.8

1.4

1.7

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.9

1.0
0.9

1.2
1.0

0.8
0.7

1.0
1.1

0 .8
1.4

1.1
1.1

1.2
1.1
1.2
1.1

0.9
0.9
1.1

0.8
1.0
1.5
1.4

1.8
0.3
1.3
1.7

2.5

2.2

2.5

2.6

2.2

1.8
2.0
1.9

1.6
2.0
1.8

1.8
1.9

1.9
2.0
2.0

1.5
1.7

2.3
1.6
1.7

1.5

1.6

.........................................................................
Brickm asons, stonemasons and tilesetters . . . .
Carpenters ..................................................................
C o m positors and typesetters ................................
E le c tric ia n s ..................................................................

2.1
1.5
2.3

1.9
1.4
2.0
2.1

0.9

2.3
1.2
2.1
1.5
1.0
0.6

1.1
1.2
2.2
1.4
1.4

L in e m e n .......................................................................

1.8
0.7

1.9
1.6
2.2
2.0
1.9
1.1

M achinists

2.0
1.3

1.8
1.3

2.1
1.4

1.5
1.0

0.9
1.9
2.5

1.0

1.8
1.8

1.0
1.8
2.4
1.8
1.7

Operatives and k i n d r e d .................................................
A tten dan ts, au to service and p a r k i n g .................

1.5

1.3

1.0

0.9

1.0

1.9
1.6
1.0

Bus, tru ck and tractor d r iv e r s ................................
L a u n d ry and d ry cleaning operatives .................

1.2
2.1

1.3
2.2

1.3
2.4

Meatcutters

................................................................

2.0

1.1
2.1
1.7

2.1

Welders and fla m e -c u tte rs .......................................

1.2

1.2
3.0
2.2
1.7

O ccu pa tion

C h e m is ts .......................................................................
Draftsm en ..................................................................
Engineers, e le c t r ic a l.................................................
Tech n ician s, medical and d e n t a l...........................
Managers, officials and p roprietors,
except farm ..................................................................
Clerical and kindred ......................................................
S a le s w o rk e rs .....................................................................
C raftsm en, forem en, and kindred .............................
Bakers

..................................................................
M echanics and repairm en, a u t o m o b ile ...............
Mechanics and repairm en, radio and T V ............
M illw r ig h t s ..................................................................
Painters, con stru ction and m a in t e n a n c e ............
Plum bers and p ip e fitt e rs ..................................... ....
T o o l and diem akers and setters

...........................

1.9
1.6

............

2.7

1.3
2.4

Waiters and waitresses ............................................
Laborers, except farm and mine ................................

1.9
1.7

2.0
1.7

Service w orkers, except private household

Table 25.

1.9
1.9
1.4
2.1
2.0
1.7
0.9
1.9
1.3
1.0
1.9
2.5
1.9
1.7
1.5

1.5
1.0

0.9

2.9
1.8
1.9
1.9
1.3

2.8
2.2
1.9
2.1
1.8

1.9
1.5

2.0
2.8
1.7
1.7

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.9
1.1

2.2

1.9
1.4

1.7
1.1

0.7
1.7

0.9
1.7

2.2
1.3
1.3

2.2
1.4

2.6
1.8

1.5

1.1

1.2

1.6
1.4

0.9

0.8

1.0

1.1
1.6
1.3

1.0
1.5
1.3

1.0
1.7

1.1
1.8

2.1

1.0
1.3
1.3

1.7

1.3

0.9

1.1

1.2

2.2
1.7

3.1
2.2

2.2
0 .9

2.2
1.4

1.9

1.5

1.6

2.9
1.9
1.6

0.9
2.0

1.9
2.6
2.0

1.3
2.6

1.9

1.2

1.3
2.9
3.0
2.3

3.0

Annual death and retirement rates for women. United States and selected States, by occupation, 1950-60
West

U n ited
States

C a lifo rn ia

O h io

Pennsylvania

Georgia

V irg in ia

T o t a l ............................................................................

4 .8

4.6

4 .9

4 .8

4 .5

4 .6

4 .8

5.1

Professional, tech n ical, and kindred ........................
Draftsm en ..................................................................
Nurses, professional .................................................

4.9

4 .5
4 .0
4 .4

5.1

5.1
4.7
4.8

4 .5

4.8
4.7

3.8
4 .3

4 .7
4 .3
4 .6

4 .7
4 .2
4 .4

5.0
5.1
4.4

4 .4

5.7

5.9

5.2

5.3

5.5

6.1

4 .8
4 .9

O ccu pa tion

Te ch n icia n s, m edical and d e n t a l...........................

-

4 .6
5.2

V irg in ia

V e rm o n t

Managers, officials and p roprietors,
..................................................................

4.7

4 .6

4.7

4 .8

4 .3

4.4

C lerical and kindred ......................................................
Cashiers .......................................................................

4 .9
4 .5

4 .6

5.0
4 .6

4 .8
4 .6

4.7

4 .2

5.1
4.4

O ffic e m achine o p e r a t o r s .......................................
Secretaries, stenographers and t y p is t s .................
S a le s w o r k e r s .....................................................................

5.1
5.1

4 .8
4.7

5.2
5.4

4 .9
5.1

4 .8
4 .3
4.1

4 .5
4.1

5.0
5.1
4.7

4.7

4 .6

4 .3

4 .3

3.8

4 .6
4 .0

4 .0

4 .0

4 .2
4.4

4 .3
4 .7

4 .0
4 .4
4 .7

3.9
4 .0
4 .4

4 .0
4 .2
4 .4

except farm

Craftsm en, forem en, and kindred

.............................

Operatives and k i n d r e d .................................................
L a u n d ry and d ry cleaning o p e r a t iv e s .................

4 .3
5.4
5.1

............

4.4
4.7

Practical n u rs e s ...........................................................
Waiters and waitresses ............................................

5.6
4 .3

5.9
3.9

5.4

5.2

5.3

5.9

4 .4

4 .2

4 .8

4 .3

4.7

4 .7

4 .6

4 .5

4 .6

4 .3

Service w orkers, except private household

Laborers, except farm and m ine

30




................................

.

4 .6
4 .9
5.3
4 .6
4 .5
4.1
4.1
4 .6
5.4
4 .6
4 .7

5.2
5.0
4 .5
4.8
5.2
5.1
4.1
4.3
5.1
5.4
5.5
5.3
5.1

Table 26.

Annual death and retirement rates for men, selected metropolitan areas, by occupation, 1950-60
Lo s AngelesWash., D .C . Baltim ore
Lon g Beach

O ccu pa tion

Professional, technical, and k i n d r e d ................................
Chem ists ............................................................................
D r a f t s m e n .........................................................................
Engineers, e le c t r ic a l........................................................
Tech n ician s, m edical and dental ................................
Managers, officials and p roprietors, except f a r m ..........
Clerical and k i n d r e d .............................................................
S a le s w o rk e rs...........................................................................
Craftsm en, forem en, and k i n d r e d .....................................
B a k e r s ................................................................................
Brickm asons, stonemasons and t ile s e t t e r s ...............
C a r p e n t e r s .........................................................................
C o m positors and t y p e s e t t e r s .......................................
E lectricians .......................................................................
Lin em en ............................................................................
M a c h in is t s .........................................................................

1.4
1.0

1.7
1.5
1.2
0.8
1.3
2.4

1.7
0.9
0.7
1.0
1.5
2.6

1.8
2.3
1.6

1.9
2.0

2.6
1.3
2.1

1.9
2.0

1.8
1.2
2.3

1.8
1.4
0.7

1.8
1.3

1.6
1.5
1.0
1.1
1.0
2.0
1.4

1.5
1.3
1.0
0.8
1.1
2.6
1.7

1.7
1.7

2.1

1.9
1.4

1.9
1.4

2.0

2.1

2.0
1.8
0.7

2.0

0.9
0.8
1.3
2.2
1.6
2.1
1.7

1.6
0.8
2.1

M iam i Om aha T ren to n Spokane P hoenix

1.8

0 .5
2.0
1.4

2.1

1.8
1.4

2.1
1.4

1.1
3.3

0.6
2.4

Mechanics and repairm en, a u t o m o b ile ......................

1.0

1.3

1.0
1.7

0.8
0.7

1.1
2.1

Painters, con stru ction and m a in te n a n c e ....................

2.5
1.7

2.1
1.4

2.5

0.8
2.1
2.7

1.6

1.7

2.6
1.7

1.8
1.3

2.1
1.3
0.6
1.0

1.8
1.4

2.0
1.3
1.3
1.1

1.0
1.5
1.2
1.3

1.8

2.9
2.4

L a u n d ry and d ry cleaning o p e r a t iv e s ........................
M e a t c u t t e r s .......................................................................
Welders and flam e-cutters

............................................

Service workers, except private h o u s e h o ld ....................
Waiters and w a itre s s e s ...................................................
Laborers, except farm and m i n e .......................................

Table 27.

0 .9
1.1
2.2
1.9
1.2
2.4
1.8
1.6

1.6
1.8
1.1
2.0
1.9
1.5

1.1
1.1
1.9
2.2
1.2
2.3
2.3
1.6

2.2
1.2
2.0
2.1
1.4

1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
0.6

Mechanics and repairm en, radio and T V .................
M illw rig h t s .........................................................................

Operatives and k i n d r e d ........................................................
A tten da n ts, auto service and p a r k in g .........................
Bus, tru ck and tractor drivers .....................................

1.8
2.0
1.4

1.2
1.1

1.6
1.3

Plum bers and pipefitters ...............................................
T o o l and diem akers and s e t t e r s ..................................

1.8

1.8

1.9

1.5
0.9
0.9
1.3
1.9
2.6
1.6

1.4
3.2
2.0
1.7

1.6
0.8
1.2
1.6
1.5
2.4
1.8
1.7

1.2
1.7
0.6
0.8
1.1
2.0
1.4
1.7

2.1

1.4

2.0
1.3
2.2

1.5
1.1
1.6

1.7

1.3

1.5

1.3

0.8
2.7

0.6
1.4

1.6

1.2

1.1
2.4

0.9
0.6

2.5

2.6

2.0
1.7

2.7

1.9
1.8
1.2

1.6

2.9
1.6

1.0
1.5
1.3

0.8
1.2
2.7

0.9
2.1

1.7

1.5

2.8
1.4

1.3
2.9
2.7

1.8

1.9

1.0
2.0
1.2
1.4

1.8
1.2

1.0
0.7

Annual death and retirement rates for women, selected metropolitan areas, by occupation 1950-60
Los AngelesWash., D .C . B altim ore
Lon g Beach

O ccu pa tion

Professional, technical, and k i n d r e d ................................
D r a f t s m e n ........................... .............................................

4 .5
4.1

Nurses, p ro fe s s io n a l........................................................
Tech n ician s, medical and dental ................................
Managers, officials and p roprietors, except f a r m ..........
C lerical and k i n d r e d .............................................................

4 .5
4 .3
4.6
4 .6

C a s h ie r s ..............................................................................

4 .3

O ffic e m achine o p e ra to rs ...............................................

4 .6
4.7

Secretaries, stenographers, and t y p i s t s ......................
S a le s w o rk e rs .........................................................................
Operatives and k in d r e d ........................................................
L a u n d ry and drycleaning operatives

4 .8
4 .0

4.4
4.1
4.6
4 .2
4 .2
4 .6
4 .2
4 .3
4 .8
4 .6
4 .0
3.5

4 .8
5.1
4.6
5.8
4 .6
4 .7

4 .3
4 .2

4 .8
5.0

5.0
4 .4

4 .6
4 .0

4 .4

3.9
4 .3

4 .4
4 .2

4 .2

Service workers, except private h o u s e h o ld ....................
Practical nurses ................................................................

4 .5
6.4

4 .3

Waiters and w a itre s s e s ....................................................

3.9

4 .0

4 .8
4 .0

Laborers, except farm and m i n e .......................................

4 .8

4 .5

4 .7




4 .3
4 .0
4 .2
4.7
4.7

4 .4

.........................

5.0

M iam i O m aha Tren to n S pokane Phoenix

4 .0

5.7
3.3
4 .6

5.6
4.9
5.2
6.6
4.8
5.2

4 .8

6.2
4.9
5.3
4.6
4 .6

4 .3
6.1

3.9
4.0

3.6
5.2

5.3
5.2

5.1

4.6
4 .5

4 .5
4 .5
5.2

5.1
4 .8
4 .3
5.4
4 .5

4 .8
3.7
4.1

6 .6
4 .5

4 .8
6.0
4.4

4.0

3.8

4 .9

4 .6
4 .5

4 .4
3.7
4.1
4.4
4 .2
4 .3
4.0
5.0
4 .4
4.1
4.1

4.9

4 .8
4 .3

5.6
4.5
4.4

4.0
4.6

5.2

31

Table 28. Comparison of estimated separations due to death and retirement, using national and State
rates for Pennsylvania, by occupation, 1950-60
Estim ated death and
retirem ent

O ccu pa tion

National

E rro r using national
rates

rates
Professional, tech n ical, and kindred ................................
Chem ists ............................................................................
Draftsm en

State
rates

109,949
745

115,263
812

-5 3 1 4

-5

-6 7
-4 8 5

-8
-2 7

N u m eric

.........................................................................

1,292

1,777

Engineers, e le c t r ic a l........................................................
Nurses, p r o f e s s io n a l........................................................

97 5

1,170

-1 9 5

15,768
2,342

20 ,8 14

-50 46
-2 8 1
-2 9 7 1

Te ch n icia n s, m edical and d e n t a l..................................
Managers, o fficials and proprietors, except f a r m ..........
C lerical and kindred .............................................................
C a s h ie r s ..............................................................................
O ffic e m achine o p e r a t o r s ..............................................
Secretaries, stenographers, and t y p i s t s ......................
S a le s w o rk e rs ............................................................................
Craftsm en, forem en , and k i n d r e d .....................................
Bakers .................................................................................
B rickm asons, stonem asons and tilesetters ...............
C a r p e n t e r s .........................................................................
C o m positors and typesetters

.......................................
Electrician s .......................................................................
L in e m e n ..............................................................................

M achinists

..........................................................................

M echanics and repairm en, a u t o m o b ile ......................
M echanics and repairm en, radio and T V .................
M illw r ig h t s ..........................................................................
Painters, con stru ction and m a in te n a n c e ....................
Plum bers and pipefitters

...............................................

T o o l and diem akers and setters ..................................
Operatives and k i n d r e d ........................................................
A tten da n ts, auto service and p a r k in g ........................
Bus, tru ck and tractor d r iv e r s .......................................
L a u n d ry and d ry cleaning o p e r a t iv e s .........................
M e a t c u t t e r s .......... .............................................................
Welders and flam e-cutters ............................................
Services w orkers, except private h o u s e h o ld ....................
Practical nurses ................................................................
Waiters and waitresses ...................................................
Laborers, except farm and m i n e .......................................

32




82 ,1 8 8

2 ,62 3
85 ,1 5 9

Percent

-1 7
-2 4
-1 1
-3
-4

199,953
9,01 0
6,867

208,67 2

6 3 ,8 50
87 ,6 9 7
122,434
2,17 0

6 7 ,0 0 6
8 6 ,6 3 0
12 8,46 3
2,327
2,314

-6 0 2 9
-2 0 2
-1 4 4

9 ,92 6
2,56 5

9 ,4 9 5
2,700

431
-1 3 5

3,88 0

4 ,6 0 7
1,624

-7 2 7
-2 9 5
-4 6 8
-4 2 4

-1 8
-5
-7

-5 6

-1 0

—

—

5,305
4,1 2 3

9 ,8 4 2
5,936
560
1,133
5,517
4,581

1,848
22 5,91 7

1,951
2 2 9,88 8

1,589
13,159

1,589
14,056
8,314
2,497
3,937

2,125

1,329
9,37 4
5,512
504
1,133

8,091
2,379
3,634
113,522
5,407
19,063
4 9 ,3 4 5

8,80 9
7,00 2

-8 7 1 9
201
-1 3 5

2
-2

-3 1 5 6
1067

-5
1

-2 1 2
-4 5 8
-1 0 3
-39 71
—

-8 9 7
-2 2 3

120,056

-1 1 8
-3 0 3
-6 5 3 4

5,021
18,533
54 ,3 7 7

386
530
-5 0 3 2

-5
-9
-6
5
-5
-1 6

-4
-1 0
-5
-2
—
-6
-3
-5
-8
-5
8
3
-9

C h a p te r I I I .
M e a s u rin g th e R e la tio n s h ip B e tw e e n C h an g es
in In d u s tr ia l E m p lo y m e n t an d C h a n g e s
in O c c u p a tio n a l E m p lo y m e n t
Many methods may be used to project employment
levels for specific occupations. One technique used by
the BLS to prepare long-range projections follows a
two-step procedure requiring two interrelated determi­
nants of occupational employment change. First, esti­
mates of total manpower requirements for a target year
are prepared for a large number of industry sectors
covering the entire economy. Second, occupational
staffing patterns (i.e., the percent distribution of total
employment in an industry by occupation) for each
industry are projected to the target year. The occupa­
tional staffing patterns then are applied to their corre­
sponding industry projections in each industry among
the various occupations. Total projections then are
obtained by adding the individual occupational estimates
in each industry to an all-industry total.
In this process, both changes in industry employment
and occupational structure play an important role in
determining the direction and amount of changes in
employment levels. However, until this time little
empirical evidence has been available regarding the
relative effect of the two factors. Generally, manpower
analysts felt that over periods as short as a decade, the
occupational structure of most industries remained
relatively stable, and consequently, changes in industrial
employment are the principal determinants of occupa­
tional shifts.
The following section examines changes in occupa­
tional employment between 1950 and 1960 and at­
tempts to distinguish between the effect of the two
factors by holding occupational structures constant. The
test procedure applies a set of occupational patterns
developed for 1950 and previously used in testing
“ Method A” to employment levels for their correspond­
ing industries in the 1960 census and sums the resulting
occupational employment data to all-industry totals.
These estimated changes then were compared to the
actual changes for each occupation. The differences
represent that share of the total change caused by shifts
in the occupational structure of industries between 1950
and 1960.




Total test results are shown in table 29. The first and
third columns show occupational employment as re­
ported in the Censuses for 1950 and 1960. Column 2
shows the test employment for each occupation result­
ing from the application of 1950 occupational structures
to the 1960 industry employment estimates. Column 4
shows the estimated percent change in employment
from industry growth and column 5 shows the actual
change reported by the Census.
If examined separately, the broad occupational
groups indicate that industry employment changes were
the principal cause of occupational employment shifts
during the 1950-60 decade. For example, industry shifts
alone seemed to account for 95 percent of employment
change in the professional group, 96 percent in the sales
group, and most of the change in the craftsmen (105
percent), and operative (117 percent) categories. How­
ever, the detailed occupations in each group indicate
that the broad group averages are merely masking large
offsetting discrepancies among the individual occupa­
tions.
Table 30 shows the actual change from the decennial
census (column 1) compared to the change from the test
i.e., the change in employment due solely to industry
growth (column 2). The proportion of total change
in each occupation caused by industry employment
change is shown in column 3. For example, between
1950 and 1960 only 23 percent of the change in office
machine operators (or 38,000 out of 166,000) was
explained by changes in industrial employment. Con­
versely, 77 percent or 128,000 resulted from increases in
the relative use of workers within industries.
The effect of industry employment changes on
occupational employment varied significantly. Of the 29
specific occupations covered, one-half or 14 were more
strongly affected by industry employment shifts, while
shifts in occupational structure were dominant in the
remaining 15. Furthermore, if industry shifts alone had
been used as a predictor, estimates of employment
changes for five occupations (bakers, carpenters, machin­
ists, automobile mechanics, and painters) would have
33

been used as a predictor, estimates of employment
stenographers, etc.; brickmasons, stonemasons, etc., and
millwrights) did industry shifts alone account for three
fourths or more of 1950-60 employment changes.
Although tests were limited, results appear to indicate
that for 10 years or longer, shifts in industry employ­
ment and changes in occupational structure within

34




industries were about equal in determining employment
changes. Though far from conclusive, the results do raise
serious question about developing occupational employ­
ment projections by applying current staffing patterns to
projections of industry employment. Such a procedure
may be adequate for short periods of 1 to 3 years, but
may result in significant error over longer periods.

Table 29.

Effect of industry growth on employment change, by occupation, 1950-60

O ccu pa tion

1950
E m p lo y m e n t,
census1

1960 E m p lo y m e n t,
estim ated fro m
industry growth

1960
E m p lo y m e n t,
census1

Increase fro m
industry
growth

(In thousands)

(Percent)
45

151

7,232
83
213
184

31
32
42

47
11
60
74

633
122

582
138

58
58

46
79

5,714

5,410
9,30 7

13
24

7
34

129
46 9

63
13
27

102
103
117

31

41

18

19
12

Professional, technical, and k i n d r e d ................................
C h e m is t s ...........................................................................
D r a f t s m e n .........................................................................

4,921
75
133

Engineers, e le c tric a l.......................................................
Nurses, p ro fe s sio n a l........................................................
Tech n ician s, medical and dental ................................

106
400
77

Managers, officials and proprietors, except farm . . . .
Clerical and k i n d r e d .............................................................
Bank t e ll e r s .......................................................................

5,036
6,95 4
64

8 ,61 0
104

C a s h ie rs ..............................................................................

231
142
1,596
3,907
7,821

180
2,090
4,6 0 9
8 ,7 8 5

4 ,6 3 9
8,741

120
166

129
184

108
186

O ffic e m achine operators ............................................
Secretaries, stenographers, and t y p is t s ......................
S a le sw o rk e rs............................................................................
Craftsm en, forem en, and k in d r e d .....................................
B a k e r s ................................................................................
Brickm asons, stonemasons and t ile s e tt e r s ...............

Increase
reported
b y census

7,125
98
175

260

308
2,256

12
8
11

-1 0
12

Carpenters ....................................................................... 1
C o m positors and ty p e s e t te rs .......................................
E le c t r ic ia n s .......................................................................
Linem en ............................................................................

919

1,012

819

10

-1 1

176
311
214

225
354

180
337

28
14

8

M a c h in is t s .........................................................................
M echanics and repairm en, a u t o m o b ile ......................

515
654

275
499
68 2

12
22

M echanics and repairm en, radio and T V .................
M illw rights .......................................................................
Painters, con struction and m aintenance .................

75

239
626
617
94

58
392

63
480

279
153
11,180
237
1,484
43 0
171
261
4 ,29 7
137

312
205

Plum bers and p ip e f it t e r s ...............................................
T o o l and diem akers and s e t t e r s ..................................
Operatives and k in d r e d ........................................................
Atten dan ts, auto service and p a r k in g .........................
Bus, truck and tractor drivers .....................................
L a u n d ry and d ry cleaning o p e ra tiv e s .........................
Meatcutters
....................................................................
Welders and fla m e -c u t t e rs ............................................
Service workers, except private h o u s e h o ld ....................
Practical n u r s e s ...............................................................
Waiters and w a itre s se s ...................................................
Laborers, except farm and m i n e .......................................

66 8
3,43 6

103
64
371
304

12,018
318

182
11,898
352

1,632
41 4

1,739
387

178
310
5,241

181
361
5,445
206
826
3,108

177
733
3,55 4

!

-6
25

2
29
-3
4
37

9
22

10
-5

12
34
7
34

9
19
6
49

10
—4
4

-1 0
6

19
22
29
10
3

17

38
27
50
24
-1 0

1S O U R C E : 1 9 6 0 C e n s u s o f P o p u la tio n , V o lu m e P C ( 1 ) —1D , U .S . T a b le 2 0 2 .




35

Table 30.

Employment changes, in industry by occupation, 1950-60

[In thousands]

Occupation

Professional, technical, and kindred .............................
C hem ists.........................................................................
Draftsmen ....................................................................
Engineers, e le c tr ic a l............................................. ..
Nurses, professional
Technicians, medical and d e n ta l................................
Managers, officials and proprietors, except f a r m .........
Clerical and kindred .........................................................
Bank tellers ..................................................................
Cashiers .........................................................................
Office machine o p erato rs...........................................
Secretaries, stenographers, and t y p is t s .....................
Salesw orkers......................................................................
Craftsmen, foremen, and kindred ..................................
Bakers ...........................................................................
Brickmasons, stonemasons and tilesetters................
Carpenters ....................................................................
Compositors and typesetters ....................................
Electricians....................................................................
L in e m e n .........................................................................
Machinists ....................................................................
Mechanics and repairmen, a u to m o b ile .....................
Mechanics and repairmen, radio and T V ..................
M illw rig h ts....................................................................
Painters, construction and m aintenance..................
Plumbers and pipefitters.............................................
Tool and diemakers and setters ................................
Operatives and k in d r e d ....................................................
Attendants, auto service and p a rk in g .......................
Bus, truck and tractor d riv e rs ....................................
Laundry and drycleaning operatives.........................
Meatcutters ..................................................................
Welders and flam e-cutters...........................................
Service workers, except private household ..................
Practical nurses.............................................................
Waiters and waitresses ................................................
Laborers, except farm and mine ....................................

Actual change
1950-601

2,311
8

80
78
182
61
374
2,353
65
238
166
660
732
920
-1 2
20
-1 0 0

4
26
61
-1 6
28
28
6
-2 1

25
29
718
115
255
-4 3
10
100

1,148
69
158
-3 2 8

*1960 Census of Population, Volume (PC(1)-1Df U.S. Table 202.
3 Estimated employment change in wrong direction.

☆ U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1973 O - 512-381 (79)

36




Estimated change
from
industry
employment
2,204
23
42
45
233
45
678
1,656
40
29
38
494
702
964
9
18
93
49
43
25
111

-3 7
19
5
88

33
52
838
81
148
-1 6
7
49
944
40
65
118

Industry generated
change as
percent of
actual change
95
288
53
58
128
136
181
70
62
12

23
75
96
105
(2 )
90
(2 )
1,225
165
41
i 2>
(2 )
68

83
(2 )
132
179
117
70
58
37
70
49
82
58
41
<>
2

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