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T O M O R R O W ’S M A N P O W E R N E E D S Research Report on Manpower Projection Methods Bulletin 1769 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS T O M O R R O W ’S M A N P O W E R N E E D S Research Report on Manpower Projection Methods Bulletin 1769 1973 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Peter J. Brennan, Secretary BUR EAU O F LABO R STATISTICS Ben Burdetsky, Deputy Commissioner For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402, GPO Bookstores, or BLS Regional Offices listed on inside back cover. Price 65 cents domestic postpaid or 45 cents over-the-counter. Make checks payable to Superintendent of Documents. Microfiche edition available from National Technical Information Service, Springfield, Va. 22151, at 95 cents a set. Make checks for microfiche payable to NTIS. C o n te n ts Page Introduction.......................................................................... 1 Chapter I. Testing the effectiveness of the national occupation-by-industry matrix for projecting occupational employment changes in States and metropolitan areas .................................................................................... 3 Chapter II. Variances in occupational death and retirement rates by State.............................................................27 Chapter III. Measuring the relationship between changes in industrial employment and changes in occupational employment....................................................................................................................................................... 33 Tables: 1. Percent permissible error in projected employment growth when 10 percent error in total openings is acceptable for selected growth and separation rates ........................................................................... 10 2? Average deviation of test results from actual employment in seven States................................................. 10 3. Projections as percent of actual employment, selected occupations, by State ..........................................10 4. Percent difference between actual and estimated change in selected occupations, 1950-69, seven States . . 11 5. Projections and actual employment changes in California, by selected occupation, 1950-60 ........... 11 6 . Projections and actual employment changes in Pennsylvania, by selected occupation, 1950-60 ...... 12 7. Projections and actual employment changes in Ohio, by selected occupation, 1950-60 .................. 13 8 . Projections and actual employment changes in Georgia, by selected occupation, 1950-60 ................ 14 9. Projections and actual employment changes in Virginia, by selected occupation, 1950-60 ............. 15 10. Projections and actual employment changes in West Virginia, by selected occupation, 1950-60 16 11. Projections and actual employment changes in Vermont, by selected occupation, 1950-60 ............. 17 12. Average deviation of test results from actual employment in nine metropolitan areas .............................. 18 13. Percent difference between actual and estimated change in selected occupations, 1950-60, nine metropolitan areas................................................................................................................................ 18 14. Projections and actual employment changes in Long Beach-Los Angeles, Calif., by selected occupation, 1950-60 ................................................................................................................................................ 18 15. Projections and actual employment changes in Washington, D. C., by selected occupation, 1950-60 . 19 16. Projections and actual employment changes in Baltimore, Md., by selected occupation, 1950-60 20 17. Projections and actual employment changes in Miami, Fla., by selected occupation, 1950-60 21 18. Projections and actual employment changes in Omaha, Nebraska, by selected occupation, 1950-60 .... 19. Projections and actual employment changes in Trenton, N.J., by selected occupation, 1950-60 23 20. Projections and actual employment changes in Spokane, Wash., by selected occupation, 1950-60 .... 24 21. Projections and actual employment changes in Baton Rouge, La., by selected occupation, 1950-60 .. 25 22. Projections and actual employment changes in Phoenix, Ariz., by selected occupation, 1950-60 ...... 26 23. Comparison of estimated annual death and retirement rates by State, 1960 ............................................ 29 24. Annual death and retirement rates *br men, U.S. and selected States, by occupation, 1950-60 ............... 30 25. Annual death and retirement rates for women, U.S. and selected States, by occupation, 1950-60 ........... 30 26. Annual death and retirement rates for men, selected metropolitan areas, by occupation, 1950-60 ........... 31 27. Annual death and retirement rates for women, selected metropolitan areas, by occupation, 1950-60 . . . . 31 28. Comparison of estimated separations due to death and retirement, using national and State rates for Pennsylvania, by occupation, 1950-60 .................................................................................................. 32 29. Effect of industry growth on employment change, by occupation, 1950-60 ............................................ 35 30. Employment changes in industry, by occupation, 1950-60 ...................................................................... 36 iii C o n te n ts —C o n tin u e d P a ge Charts: 1. Distribution of occupational employment projections as percent of actual 1960 employment for seven test States .......................................................................................................................................................... 2. Distribution of occupational employment projections as percent of actual employment for nine test metropolitan areas ............................................................................................................................................. IV 6 8 In tr o d u c tio n The Tomorrow's M anpower N eeds (TMN) series is designed to assist those responsible for making State and area manpower projections which are used in planning education, training, and vocational guidance. This series has been revised to provide up-to-date information on national projections of manpower requirements and indicate the results of the Bureau’s research to improve methods of developing projections. The full series of reports are as follows: Tomorrow’s Manpower Needs; National Manpower Projections and a Guide to their Use as a Tool in Developing State and Area Manpower Projections, BLS Bulletin 1606: Vol. I - Developing 91 Area Manpower Projec tions, February 1969 Vol. II —National Trends and Outlook: Indus try Employment and Occupa tional Structure, February 1969 Vo. Ill —National Trends and Outlook: Occu pational Employment Vol. IV —The National Industry-Occupational Matrix and Other Manpower Data, 1969 Supplement No. 1 - R e v is e d E m p l o y m e n t P r o j e c tions for the Construction Industry, April 1970 Supplement No. 2 — New and Revised National Industry Projections and Procedures for Adjusting Wage and Salary Employ ment to Total Employ ment, 1970 Vol. IV - Revised 1971-T h e National Industry -o c c u p a tio n a l Matrix and Other Manpower Data, BLS Bulle tin 1737,1972 1 C h a p te r I. T e s tin g th e E ffe c tiv e n e s s o f t h e N a tio n a l O c c u p a tio n -b y -ln d u s tr y M a tr ix fo r P ro je c tin g O c c u p a tio n a l E m p lo y m e n t C h a n g e s in S t a t e s a n d M e tr o p o lita n A re a s Volume I of the TMN presented two methods by which the National matrix could be used to translate projections of State or area employment into projections of occupational employment. In the absence of informa tion on the occupational composition of industries in the State, the bulletin recommended the use of the National 1-0 matrix, but concern was expressed about possible differences between the National average com position of each industry and the composition of the industry in the State. Two methods are suggested to deal with this problem: In “ Method A” , the industry staffing patterns of the national matrix were applied directly to their corre sponding estimates of base year (1960) and projected (1975) industry employment for the State. The results in each industry then were added to all-industry totals in each year and used to compute change factors (1975 employment/1960 employment) for each occupa tion. Projections for the State would then be made by ap plying the change factor to the State’s base (1960) occupa tional employment level, derived from the Census o f Pop ulation for that year.1 In effect, this method applies to the actual number of workers in each occupation in the State in 1960, a change factor reflecting the projected growth of each industry employing that occupation in the State weighted by the incidence of that occupation in each industry nationally. “ Method A,” a relatively simple mechanical process, was used to project preliminary occupational employment for over 160 specific occupa tions. Because many of the industries in the National 1-0 matrix are broadly defined and contain sub-industries 1F or e x a m p le s and a m ore co m p le te d is cu s s io n o f th e t e ch n iq u e s , see T o m o r r o w ’s M a n p o w e r N e e d s ; N a tio n a l M a n p ow er P r o je c tio n s and a G u id e to th eir U se a s a T o o l in D e v e lo p in g S ta te a n d A r e a M a n p o w e r P r o je c tio n s , B u lle tin 1 6 0 6 (B u re a u o f L a b o r S ta tistics, 1 9 6 9 ). with varying occupations, the plants in an 1-0 industry within a State may differ in composition from the national average for the industry— which case the in weighting may be inaccurate. Since the 4-volume TMN report was released in early 1969, over 40 state employment agencies have under taken projections o f manpower requirements; to date 38 of these have been completed and 33 published. Most of the studies are restricted to State-wide estimates, but some utilized the TMN methods to develop manpower requirements for sub-State regions and/or metropolitan areas. Before the TMN report was released, the Bureau tested the recommended procedures in a few large States to measure their success in predicting past changes in employment. The results o f one such test in Ohio were included in Volume I o f the TMN report. The BLS bulletin was prepared by Joseph S. Cangialosi under the supervision o f Richard E. Dempsey in the Division o f Manpower and Occupational Outlook, Russell B. Flanders, Chief. This bulletin presents results o f the Bureau’s continuing research in developing and testing techniques used to prepare projections of State and area manpower requirements. The preparation o f State and local manpower requirements is relatively new and undeveloped; this bulletin attempts to provide some empirical evidence regarding the reliability as well as some of the shortcomings o f the techniques presented in Tom orrow's Manpower Needs. The Bureau has examined and reported on several important components o f these procedures in the following pages. In “ Method B,” which indirectly used the National matrices, a State industry-occupational matrix first had to be developed from Census (1960) data. The State matrix then would be projected to the target year (1975) by applying change factors (1975 ratio/1960 ratio) computed from each cell in the National Matrix to the corresponding cell in the State matrix. Once 3 projected, individual occupational staffing patterns for each industry in the State matrix could be applied to separately projected State industry employment estimates. Although procedurally superior, “Method B” generally was less desirable since it required the expenditure o f considerable resources to develop a base period matrix. Also, much o f the advantage gained from local occupational staffing patterns would be offset by the limited amount o f industry detail available from the Census for use to develop the State matrix. A Census-based State matrix could include only about 40 industries and 50 occupations, whereas the national matrix includes 116 industries and 160 occupations. Because o f resource problems and the technical limitations o f “ Method B,” most State agencies chose to use “ Method A.” Before the TMN report was released, a number of tests were conducted to assess the reliability of “ Method A” . As indicated earlier, one comprehensive test of the method for the State of Ohio was presented in Volume I o f the TMN report. However, due to the widespread use of “ Method A,” especially in small States, in sub-State regions, and SMSA’s, more extensive testing seemed warranted. For this purpose, seven States and nine SMSA’s representing a wide range o f population size, growth rates, industrial development, and geographic areas were selected for testing. The following paragraphs present the results of these tests. Method Used to Test the Effectiveness o f "Method A " in Projecting State Occupational Employment Changes “ Method A” was applied to past situations in predicting past changes in a State’s occupational employment and results were measured. How effectively would past changes in national staffing patterns, combined with past changes in a State’s (SMSA) industry employment, have measured changes in employment for specific occupations in the State (SMSA)? Or, how much error is introduced by using national occupational patterns instead o f State patterns for each industry? This question is important because several years will pass before detailed occupational information for each State can be obtained from the 1970 Census2 and from the Federal-State Occupational Employment Statistics program.3 For testing purposes, the 1950-60 period was chosen. National patterns (i.e., the percent distribution o f occupational employment in an industry) from the 1950 and 1960 decennial censuses 4 were developed covering 29 occupations in eight occupational groups for 116 industries. The occupations were selected to represent a cross section of various employment sizes, skill levels, and employment growth rates. Once available, the national patterns then were applied to their corresponding 1950 and 1960 industry employment in each State (SMSA) as reported in the decennial censuses. The results (by industry) for each State were added to all-industry totals in the base (1950) and target (1960) years and were used to compute occupational change factors for the 1950-60 decade. “ Method A” projections to 1960 then were computed by applying each occupation’s change factor to the actual 1950 occupational employment reported by the Census for the State in 1950. (See tables 2-11.) The resulting projection of employment for 1960 by occupation and the actual data from the 1960 Census were compared. Results should be interpreted cautiously since in the test procedures actual data from the 1950 and 1960 Censuses were used instead of projections. Thus, the two principal inputs needed to complete “ Method A,” namely, State (SMSA) projections o f industry employ ment and national projections o f occupational patterns by industry, were determined perfectly. The actual use of “ Method A” by State agencies would involve error in each. The use of national rather than State occupational composition for each industry is being tested. When interpreting results, one should consider the degree o f accuracy required. However, establishing an objective criteria for a “ good” projection is difficult. An acceptable standard in one situation may be completely inappropriate in another. Therefore, when evaluating projections there is no single criteria against which each and every occupation can be judged. In the final analysis, a “ good” projection is one that successfully guides those responsible for planning education and training programs to reach correct decisions. At first, one might say that a projection is accurate if it predicts, within a predetermined range (for example 1 0 percent), the level o f employment in a target year. However, since occupational employment projections are often made to establish educational and training needs, the real objective is the measure o f employment change. In some occupations, employment projections 3The B u re a u o f L a b o r S ta tistics, in c o o p e r a t i o n w ith th e M a n p o w e r A d m in is tr a t io n a n d t h e S ta te e m p lo y m e n t a g e n cie s, h a s u n d e r ta k e n t o d e v e lo p a n in te g ra te d n a tio n a l/S ta te in d u s tr y o c c u p a t io n a l e m p lo y m e n t m a tr ix sy ste m . 3 F o r a d e s c r ip t io n o f th is p ro g r a m , see t h e M o n t h ly L a b o r R e v ie w , O c t o b e r 1 9 7 1 , p p . 1 2 -1 7 . within 5 percent would be sufficient, but in others, especially those having little growth, such projections n might be unacceptable. For example, if employment is expected to double over the period, projections to within 10 percent probably would be adequate. How ever, if employment increases only five percent, then projections accurate to within 10 percent would be misleading. Also, evaluations o f projections based on employment levels often can mislead the casual reader. For example, a projection to within 2 or 3 percent may well have erred in forecasting employment change as much as 50 percent. Thus, a better criterion forjudging a “ good” projection would be if the projection correctly predicts, within an acceptable range, the change in employment by occupation. However, even this criterion cannot be applied to most situations. For example, projecting change within 20 percent may be reasonable for moderate growth but far too rigid for employment which has declined or risen very rapidly. If employment is declining, it may not be necessary to identify the amount of decrease to designate the occupation as one for which training programs should not be offered. Conversely, if an occupation is projected to grow very rapidly, it may not be necessary to predict the change to within 10 percent to mark it as an occupation for which training seems desirable. In such instances, a less accurate projection may adequately guide planners. Finally, the need to replace workers who leave the labor force due to death, retirement, or other reasons constitutes a large share of total job openings and should be considered in an overall evaluation. Such replace ments are more predictable since they depend largely on normal working life patterns and the age distribution of workers in various occupations. The significance of replacement requirements in estimating total openings for an occupation has an inverse relationship to growth requirements, i.e., the slower the growth the larger share of total openings from replacements. Therefore, to measure total openings which is the real goal, the accuracy of the projection depends upon two factors— employment change and death and retirement rates. The maximum percent error in growth which can be tolerated for any maximum percent error in an estimate o f total openings and for any set of growth and separation rates may be predetermined. Table 1 is an example of a maximum 10 percent error in total openings. Tables can be constructed to represent other error margins. Table 1 shows that for occupations having a 25 percent growth and a 2 percent annual separation rate (mostly male workers) the estimated growth could be in error by ± 36 percent without more than a 20 percent error in total openings. Although this approach appears to give a “ hard” numerical measure of whether or not an estimate is good, still a large arbitrary element is involved in setting a criterion for permissible error in the total openings estimate. No single criterion can be adopted to determine a “ good” projection in all circumstances. However, to compare States and areas in this report, an arbitrary evaluation standard of 80-120 percent o f the actual employment change was used. Also, the summaries for the tests examine the results to determine the success o f predicting employment levels in both the States and SMSA’s. As indicated, such results can be misleading and each projection must be judged by the criterion o f how well it would have guided educators and planners. Only if it provides proper guidance can a projection be judged “ good.” Table 2 shows the overall average percentage (all occupations) deviation from perfect projections in each of the States tested. Although far from conclusive, these results indicate that “ Method A” is less reliable than “ Method B” for States well below average size and for States expected to undergo significant employment growth. Even more exacting evaluation criteria were adopted for individual States. Instead o f examining how well the procedure predicted the success o f 1960 employment levels, evaluations o f the following States predicted how accurately the procedure measured changes in occupational employment during the 1950-60 decade. Even under the more stringent criteria, “Method A” appears to have made reliable projections in a vast majority of cases. Following is a brief discussion o f the results in each State. Complete results are shown in tables 5 through 22. Summary o f State Tests of Tomorrow's Manpower Needs Projection "Method A " A broad overview of the accuracy of “ Method A” in projecting occupational employment may be gained from Table 3 and Chart 1. The Table shows the relationship between projected and actual employment levels in the 29 test occupations in each o f the States in 1960. Some of the largest discrepancies, such as electrical engineers, tool and diemakers, and setters in Georgia probably resulted from the lack of industry detail in the national matrix. (See table 8.) For example, a large share of the electrical engineers are concentrated in the 5 Chart 1. D is tr ib u tio n o f o c c u p a tio n a l e m p lo y m e n t p r o j e c t i o n s a s p e r c e n t o f a c tu a l 1 9 6 0 e m p lo y m e n t f o r s e v e n t e s t s t a t e s Frequency 140 Percent electrical machinery industry (SIC 36). However, their relative importance differs significantly among the various 3-digit SIC components of SIC 36. For example, in the household appliance sector (SIC 363) they account for less than 5 percent of the total work force, while in the communication equipment sector (SIC 366), especially where military equipment is produced, they often account for 20 percent or more. Therefore, the national matrix would be most effective in project ing electrical engineers in a State when the composition of SIC 36 is similar to that in the Nation. Another view of Method A’s accuracy is shown in table 4, which gives for each State the percent difference between the actual and estimated change in employment in selected test occupations. As can be seen, the percent change was projected within 20 percent of the actual change in well over 80 percent of the cases. California Although employment growth in most occupations was significantly greater in California than in the Nation as a whole during the 1950-60 period, the test applica tion of TMN “Method A” resulted in good projections. Actual employment in six of the detailed occupations 6 more than doubled and “Method A” correctly predicted increases of this magnitude for five. Even the exception, medical and dental technicians, was identified as a growth occupation. Ten occupations or occupational groups in the test experienced below average growth rates of less than 30 percent, and “Method A” correctly identified all 10. In 20 of the 29 detailed occupations, estimated growth differed from actual growth by less than 20 percentage points. Five of the nine occupations not meeting this criterion were among those which doubled in employment and all were identified as growth occupations. Pennsylvania In contrast to California, employment changes in Pennsylvania reflected slower growth rates than in the Nation as a whole. Table 6 shows that in only two occupations were Pennsylvania test projections more than 20 percentage points different from the actual growth. In one of these, office machine operators, “Method A” predicted correctly that employment would double. Of the dozen occupations that experi enced actual growth of at least 30 percent, “Method A” failed to project such growth in only two instances; secretaries were predicted to increase 23 percent and welders and flame-cutters 26 percent. Both projections, however, are within 20 percentage points of actual increases. Eleven occupations declined between 1950 and 1960. “Method A” correctly predicted decreases in 10 cases, with the sole exception of compositors and typesetters. Numeric changes in table 6 illustrate that even in this occupation the false requirements indicated by “Method A” would have had little, if any, implications for job training, since far more training would have been required to replace those who left this occupation or the labor force because of deaths, retirements, or other reasons. The test also showed that “Method A” was quite successful in correctly projecting changes in detailed occupations when these changes ran counter to the change for the broad group of which the occupation is a part. For example, although the professional group increased moderately, “Method A” correctly predicted a small decline in the number of chemists. Similarly, although the number of craftsmen remained almost constant, the projections correctly show moderate growth for linemen, radio and TV repairmen, tool and diemakers, and declines for bakers, brickmasons, carpen ters, electricians, machinists, and painters. Comparable patterns also may be seen in the operatives group. O h io Projections results for Ohio appear good. (See table 7.) Only two occupations, electrical engineers and office machine operators, had projected increases which were more than 20 percentage points different from actual increases. Of seven occupations or groups showing declines, “Method A” would have correctly identified six of the seven. The one exception was compsitors and typesetters, and as in Pennsylvania, the discrepancy is probably not large enough to have serious training implications, if the magnitude of demand generated by deaths and retirements is considered. Perhaps most important for training, the test would have correctly identified all nine occupations that increased by more than 30 percent between 1950 and 1960. In this State also, “Method A” would have done a creditable job in identifying those detailed occupations where employment moved in the opposite direction from their broad group. For example, laundry and dry cleaning operatives were correctly forecast to decrease, even though the operatives group showed a small increase. Similar patterns are exhibited in several of the crafts. Georgia In the decade studied, employment in this mediumsize State increased at a rate considerably above the Nation as a whole, as indicated in table 8. In contrast, 10 occupations among those tested grew 30 percent or less. “Method A” correctly predicted that nine of these would grow at this slower rate; automobile mechanics and repairmen was the exception. Three occupations showed actual decreases in em ployment. “Method A” forecast two of these and projected little change in the third, painters. Although 12 occupations grew at a rate which was not within 20 percentage points of the actual increase, six doubled (or nearly did), and “Method A” predicted they would grow above average. Of the remaining six, chemists had a numeric discrepancy which indicates that replacement needs would be more im portant than the projection error. Virginia Only four occupations in Virginia had predicted and actual growth rates which differed more than 20 percentage points. In one of these occupations, bank tellers, “Method A” correctly predicted that employ ment would more than double during the decade. Another, auto service and parking attendants, would have few vocational training implications. The projections correctly show declines in employ ment of carpenters and laundry and dry cleaning operatives, even though the broad occupational groups of which these are a part showed opposite movement. Even if “Method A” failed to predict an actual employ ment decrease for bakers, the discrepancy amounted to less than 10 jobs a year, a figure which would be far outweighed by needs generated through deaths and retirements. Of the 16 occupations which grew over 30 percent in the decade, “Method A” correctly identified 15. West Virgin ia “Method A” also performed well in this State, where employment actually fell in the decade under study. As table 10 shows, only five occupations had predictions that differed from actual rates of employment change by more than 20 percentage points. In one of these, office 7 machine operators, a very large increase was correctly predicted. In spite of generally declining employment, seven occupations showed employment increases of 30 percent or more in the 1950-60 period. “Method A” correctly identified all seven. The projections also identified occupations having trends which differ from those of their broad occupa tional groups. For example, craftsmen declined in employment from 1950 to 1960, yet the component occupations compositors, linemen, radio and TV repair men, millwrights, and tool and diemakers were all correctly predicted to increase. The operatives category showed a substantial employment decline, but the method correctly predicted increases for auto service and parking attendants and welders. had little effect on the planning of training programs over the 10-year period. As in most other States, “Method A” identified those occupations having trends counter to the trends of the broad group of which they are a part. For example, although craftsmen were correctly forecast to increase slightly, employment declines were correctly predicted for bakers, carpenters, and painters. Similarly, although the operatives group showed a small decline, auto service and parking attendants and welders and flame-cutters were correctly projected to increase rapidly. Sum m ary o f M etropolitan (SM SA ) tests o f "M e th o d A " As indicated earlier, tests of “Method A,” also were conducted on a selected group of SMSA’s. The fre quency distribution of occupational employment esti mates for 1960 generated by “Method A” as a percent age of actual 1960 employment in nine SMSA’s is depicted on chart 2. As with State results, a strong central tendency is seen; “Method A” predicted over 36 percent of the occupations within 5 percent of their actual 1960 employment level and 86 percent within 25 percent. Table 12 shows the average deviation from 100 percent for each SMSA. V e rm o n t Table 11 shows that for the smallest of the test States, only eight occupations had predicted and actual growth changes differing more than 20 percentage points. One of these, office machine operators, was correctly forecast to double, and many of the others had small numeric differences; the discrepances would have D is tr ib u tio n o f o c c u p a tio n a l e m p lo y m e n t p r o j e c t i o n s a s p e r c e n t o f a c tu a l 1 9 6 0 e m p l o y m e n t f o r n in e t e s t m e tr o p o lita n a r e a s Frequency 140 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85-94 95-104 105-114 115-124 125-134 1 35-144 145-154 Percent 8 155-164 To what extent does “Method A” become less reliable as the population size of the area decreases? As expected, the test showed that accuracy tends to decline when “Method A” is followed in smaller SMSA’s. However, in most of the small SMSA’s tested, “Method A” appears to have predicted many of the important employment shifts that occurred during the 1950-60 decade. Size is not the only factor affecting the procedure. For example, the industrial mix and the area’s growth rate also may significantly affect its reliability. Baltimore’s average deviation was the smallest of the nine areas studied, yet was the third largest in population. The relatively good performance of “Method A” probably was due to diversity of the industrial mix in the Baltimore SMSA and the fact that its rate of growth between 1950 and 1960 was near the national average. The test showed somewhat contradictory results in two rapidly growing areas— Phoenix and Los Angeles— the better results in but Los Angeles probably stem from its broad industrial base and large size. Complete numeric and percentage comparisons of the projected and actual employment data for the nine SMSA’s are presented in tables 12 through 22. Again, as with the State tests, results should be interpreted cautiously since the test assumes that perfect projections of national occupational patterns and SMSA industrial employment were available. In actual practice, error would be involved in both. Also, the summary tables evaluate the test projections for the predictability of employment levels. As indicated earlier, a more satisfac tory criterion of judging the accuracy of projections is the success of the method in predicting employment changes. For such information, the reader should ex amine the tables of each metropolitan area. 9 Table 1. Percent permissible error in projected e m p lo y m ent growth when 10 percent error in total openings is acceptable fo r selected growth and separation rates Table 2. Average deviation o f test results from actual em ploym ent in seven states1 Percent deviation State 1 0 -year 1 ___ 5 ___ 1 0 ___ 1 5 ___ 2 0 ___ 2 5 ___ 3 0 ___ 3 5 ___ 4 0 ___ 4 5 ___ 5 0 ___ 6 0 ___ 7 0 ___ 80 . . . . 9 0 ___ 1 0 0 ___ Table 3. 1 .0 1.5 2 .0 2.5 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 o C D (percent) 0.5 o C O growth Selected annual death and retirement rates (percent) Percent permissible error in employment projection 60 110 20 30 15 13 13 20 11 17 15 14 13 13 13 11 12 160 40 25 20 210 50 30 23 11 12 11 12 18 16 15 14 14 13 13 13 11 11: 12 11 11 12 18 17 16 15 14 14 13 13 13 11 11 12 12 11 11 12 12 12 12 11 20 260 310 360 410 460 510 560 610 60 70 80 90 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 2 0 130 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 27 30 33 37 40 43 47 50 23 25 28 30 33 35 38 40 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 18 2 0 2 2 23 25 27 28 30 17 19 2 0 2 1 23 24 26 27 16 18 19 2 0 2 1 23 24 25 16 17 18 19 2 0 2 1 22 23 15 16 17 18 19 2 0 2 1 22 14 15 16 17 18 18 19 2 0 14 14 15 16 16 17 18 19 13 14 14 15 16 16 17 18 13 13 14 14 15 16 16 17 13 13 14 14 15 15 16 16 California . . . Pennsylvania Ohio ........... Georgia Virginia West Virginia Vermont . . . 9.0 5.2 5.7 14.4 8 .6 8 .1 11.5 1Mean difference from 100.0 percent, ignoring sign. Projections as percent o f actual em ploym ent, selected occupations, by State State Occupation California Professional, technical, and k in d re d ......................... C hem ists.................................................................. Draftsmen ............................................................. Engineers, e le c tr ic a l............................................. Nurses, p ro fessio n a l............................................. Technicians, medical and d e n ta l......................... Managers, officials and proprietors, except farm . . Clerical and k in d re d .................................................... Bank tellers ........................................................... Cashiers .................................................................. Office machine o p e ra to rs.................................... Secretaries, stenographers, and t y p is t s .............. Salesworkers.................................................................. Craftsmen, foremen and kindred ............................. Bakers .................................................................... Brickmasons, stonemasons and tilesetters......... Carpenters ............................................................. Compositors and typesetters .............................. Electricians............................................................. L in e m e n .................................................................. Machinists ............................................................. Mechanics and repairmen, auto ......................... Mechanics and repairmen, radio and T V ............ M illw rig h ts............................................................. Painters, construction and m aintenance........... Plumbers and pipefitters....................................... Tool and die makers and se tte rs......................... Operatives and k in d red ................................................ Attendants, auto service, and parking................ Bus, truck and tractor d riv e rs .............................. Laundry and dry cleaning o p e ra tiv e s ................ Meatcutters ........................................................... Welders and Flam ecutters.................................... Service workers, except private h o u s e h o ld .............. Practical nurses...................................................... Waiters and waitresses ......................................... Laborers, except farm and m in e ................................ 98 93 115 75 10 100 67 103 98 124 98 114 94 103 104 116 Pennsylvania 101 104 100 102 102 101 91 97 92 105 115 96 93 118 92 90 107 86 95 98 101 103 102 103 109 93 98 115 101 100 103 96 98 96 112 106 101 101 106 45 99 91 103 98 95 85 95 79 99 105 92 105 99 93 107 103 96 106 97 104 124 105 134 104 99 100 101 100 101 109 126 103 98 84 92 32 82 85 91 118 93 105 93 95 95 98 125 85 75 111 88 107 97 109 116 123 99 Georgia 103 114 109 99 105 104 108 99 101 Ohio 112 95 101 102 104 97 95 94 97 74 103 104 101 105 105 103 91 103 107 110 97 96 111 102 97 101 91 Virginia West Verginia Verm ont 96 102 100 102 88 112 115 106 110 116 135 137 123 86 85 104 103 119 105 103 107 101 82 90 91 99 98 88 110 100 98 138 85 89 86 102 102 103 103 107 83 105 104 116 107 103 98 110 105 102 101 111 100 114 106 92 109 95 103 100 100 93 99 99 113 90 95 104 98 83 106 92 102 86 114 98 91 110 98 114 110 147 73 92 95 101 82 100 102 111 100 120 107 92 84 84 60 99 125 116 74 109 109 104 91 75 103 94 98 97 102 Table 4. States Percent difference between actual and estimated change in selected occupations, 1950*60, seven Percent differences Total test occu patio ns........... ............................................. 1 1 - 2 0 ............................................. 2 1 -3 0 ............................................. 3 1 -4 0 ............................................. 4 1 -5 0 ............................................. 5 1 -60 ............................................. 61 and o v e r .................................. 0 -1 0 le 5. 7 States California Pennsylvania Ohio Georgia Virginia Vermont West Virginia 37 27 37 19 37 21 37 19 37 24 6 11 259 165 37 23 37 32 50 16 16 5 a 7 1 0 2 4 1 5 2 0 2 0 5 2 10 8 3 1 2 1 7 3 2 0 0 0 3 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 1 0 2 Projections and actual em ploym en t changes in C alifornia, b y selected occupation, 1950*60 Employment Occupation Actual Professional, technical, and k in d re d ............................. Chemists .................................................................... Draftsmen .................................................................. Engineers, e le ctrica l.................................................. Nurses, professional.................................................. Technicians, medical and d e n ta l............................. Managers, officials and proprietors, except farm . . . . Clerical and k in d re d ......................................................... Bank t e lle r s ............................................................... Cashiers .................................................................... Office machine operators......................................... Secretaries, stenographers, and ty p is ts .................. Salew orkers...................................................................... Craftsmen, foremen, and kin d red .................................. Bakers ........................................................................ Brickmasons, stonemasons and tilesetters ........... C a rp en ters.................................................................. Compositors and ty p e se tte rs.................................. Electricians ............................................................... Lin em en ...................................................................... Machinists .................................................................. Mechanics and repairmen, a u to m o b ile .................. Mechanics and repairmen, radio and T V .............. M illw rights................................................................. Painters, construction and m aintenance................ Plumbers and pipefitters ......................................... Tool and diemakers and s e tte r s .............................. Operatives and kindred .................................................. Attendants, auto service and p a rk in g .................... Bus, truck and tractor drivers.................................. Laundry and drycleaning operatives....................... Meatcutters ............................................................... Welders and flame-cutters ....................................... Service workers, except private h ou sehold .................. Practical nurses ......................................................... Waiters and waitresses ............................................. Laborers, except farm and m in e .................................... Percent change 1950-60 1960 1950 357,526 Projected 430,382 5,410 11,370 9,357 38,214 7,905 441,843 552,932 7,919 12,653 20,999 21,762 13,300 108,980 384,345 8,726 343,195 1,555 16,232 13,369 21,548 6,301 124,096 361,718 12,706 20,019 14,975 134,580 331,291 594,935 8,712 6,692 78,609 11,729 26,338 20,423 38,604 49,028 7,931 1,969 36,544 20,780 7,853 599,706 211 714 106,794 32,278 15,083 18,058 344,426 12,708 59,957 219,721 22,604 20,755 99,795 117,562 208,635 723 2,755 -4 ,5 9 3 3,140 8,468 8,152 19,526 8,532 3,510 710 2,682 5,552 6,241 256,147 13,353 32,069 1,075 2,028 12,296 132,898 5,911 20,550 26,805 21,758 25,672 85,429 130,011 238,927 2,269 1,588 1,478 2,957 8,718 10,248 18,041 13,812 5,358 1,338 2,181 5,691 7,231 284,340 11,933 40,031 80 2,672 19,497 158,778 12,254 23,613 24,438 2 ,1 0 2 Actual 83 39 111 224 57 168 25 70 110 113 139 74 35 35 8 41 -6 27 32 40 51 17 44 36 7 27 79 43 61 30 3 13 Projected 80 29 143 143 56 80 28 65 160 109 171 63 39 40 26 24 2 25 33 50 47 28 68 68 6 27 92 47 55 37 0 39 47 34 18 108 46 96 39 12 11 68 11 Table 6. Projections and actual em ploym ent changes in Pennsylvania b y selected occu pation , 1950-60 Employment Occupation Actual Professional, technical, and k in d re d .............................. Chemists .................................................................... Draftsmen .................................................................. Engineers, e le ctrica l.................................................. Nurses, p rofessio nal.................................................. Technicians, medical and d e n ta l.............................. Managers, officials and proprietors, except farm . . . . Clerical and k in d re d ......................................................... Bank tellers ................................................................ C a sh ie rs .................................. ................................... Office machine op erato rs......................................... Secretaries, stenographers, and t y p is t s .................. Salesworkers .................................................................... Craftsmen, foremen, and k in d re d .................................. Bakers ......................................................................... Brickmasons, stonemasons and tilesetters ............ C a rp e n te rs .................................................................. Compositors and ty p e se tte rs.................................. Electricians ................................................................ Lin e m e n ...................................................................... M a c h in is ts .................................................................. Mechanics and repairmen, a u to m o b ile .................. Mechanics and repairmen, radio and T V .............. M illw rig h ts.................................................................. Painters, construction and m aintenance................ Plumbers and pipefitters ......................................... Tool and diemakers and s e tte r s .............................. Operatives and kindred .................................................. Attendants, auto service and p a rk in g ..................... Bus, truck and tractor d rivers.................................. Laundry and drycleaning operatives....................... Meatcutters ................................................................ Welders and flame-cutters ....................................... Service workers, except private h ou seh old .................. Practical nurses ......................................................... Waiters and waitresses ............................................. Laborers, except farm and m in e .................................... 12 328,905 6,907 13,900 8,491 29,944 4,983 303,731 491,289 4,254 13,379 8,085 108,870 271,238 624,199 10,932 14,651 46,673 13,686 25,141 13,142 51,880 41,363 5,371 5,849 23,028 22,926 9,508 1,047,050 13,616 107,946 23,821 12,097 25,804 283,151 6,187 43,860 304,302 Percent change 1950-60 1960 1950 112,244 -2 7 7 4,507 2,525 10,667 2,689 -1 3 ,3 4 6 99,883 4,123 13,285 10,761 32,652 35,602 -5 ,9 1 1 -1 ,6 2 6 -3 7 2 -7 ,0 3 1 -3 7 2 -1 ,7 8 3 3,249 -1 0 ,0 2 3 2,075 454 225 -3 ,6 2 0 -3 9 1,516 -1 1 1,7 2 2 4,552 3,427 -3 ,0 8 9 -4 0 9 8,957 55,801 6,938 6 ,8 6 8 -6 4 ,3 2 8 Projected 116,610 -6 8 7,076 3,517 10,416 3,093 -2 ,4 9 2 110,509 3,374 12,438 8,084 25,109 28,982 3,279 -5 8 7 -3 3 3 -1 0 ,0 5 9 334 -2 ,0 7 8 2,171 -5 ,1 8 3 -2 8 2 484 392 -4 ,3 8 7 -4 3 0 1 ,0 2 0 -102,099 4,973 8,118 -3 ,6 4 5 -9 7 7 6,781 44,838 3,554 8,617 -5 4 ,6 9 9 Actual 34 -4 32 30 36 54 -4 Projected 35 -1 51 41 35 62 -1 20 22 97 99 133 30 13 79 93 100 23 11 1 -1 -1 5 -3 -1 5 -3 -7 25 -1 9 5 8 4 -1 6 0 16 -1 1 33 3 -1 3 -3 35 20 112 16 -2 1 -5 -2 -2 2 2 -8 17 -1 0 -1 9 7 -1 9 -2 11 -1 0 37 8 -1 5 - 8 26 16 57 20 -1 8 Table 7. Projections and actual em ploym ent changes in O h io , b y selected o ccu p a tion , 1950-60 Em ploym ent Occupation Actual Professional, technical, and k in d re d .............................. Chemists .................................................................... Draftsmen ................................................................. Engineers, e le ctrica l.................................................. Nurses, professional.................................................. Technicians, medical and d e n ta l............................. Managers, officials and proprietors, except farm . . . . Clerical and k in d re d ......................................................... Bank t e lle r s ................................................................ C a sh ie rs ...................................................................... Office machine op erato rs......................................... Secretaries, stenographers, and ty p is t s .................. Salesworkers .................................................................... Craftsmen, foremen, and k in d re d .................................. B a k e r s ......................................................................... Brickmasons, stonemasons and tilesetters ............ C a rp en ters.................................................................. Compositors and typesetters .................................. Electricians ................................................................ Lin e m e n ...................................................................... M a c h in is ts .................................................................. Mechanics and repairmen, a u to m o b ile .................. Mechanics and repairmen, radio and T V .............. M illw rig hts.................................................................. Painters, construction and m aintenance................ Plumbers and pipefitters ......................................... Tool and diemakers and s e tte r s .............................. Operatives and kindred .................................................. Attendants, auto service and p a rk in g .................... Bus, truck and tractor drivers.................................. Laundry and dry cleaning o p eratives..................... Meatcutters ............................................................... Welders and flame-cutters ....................................... Service workers, except private h ou sehold .................. Practical nurses ......................................................... Waiters and waitresses ............................................. Laborers, except farm and m in e .................................... 263,202 5,020 9,870 6,288 20,244 3,543 25,317 396,064 3,485 13,394 9,589 88,470 221,682 506,537 6,933 9,824 38,043 11,080 19,081 10,760 47,731 33,700 4,073 7,432 19,394 15,268 18,011 705,773 13,151 84,626 20,426 9,389 25,416 230,381 6,380 38,273 182,614 Percent change 1950-60 1960 1950 118,300 334 4,887 2,328 9,480 2,800 8,735 105,589 3,902 12,832 7,506 30,724 34,883 31,758 -9 6 8 1,929 -3 ,3 2 4 -9 1 5 1,224 2,327 -6 ,5 4 5 1,271 723 94 -2 ,7 5 6 1,342 3,657 25,601 3,815 6,291 -2 ,2 2 8 559 4,221 54,160 5,235 9,039 -5 ,3 8 7 Projected 131,738 351 6 ,2 1 1 4,588 10,263 2,794 16,129 113,689 3,312 14,030 10,066 26,284 40,801 48,039 -4 2 3 1,161 -3 ,9 6 0 634 1,493 2,975 -4 ,5 8 5 2,248 707 Actual 45 7 50 37 47 79 35 27 112 96 78 35 16 6 -1 4 20 -9 Projected 50 7 63 73 51 79 64 29 95 105 105 30 18 9 —6 12 -1 0 6 - 8 6 8 22 28 -1 4 4 18 1 ,0 2 0 1 -1 ,7 3 7 1,565 1,621 48,026 5,037 14,962 -2 ,8 0 8 181 7,379 60,901 4,905 9,479 -2 0 ,5 8 5 -1 4 9 20 4 29 7 -1 1 -1 0 7 17 14 -9 10 9 7 38 18 -1 4 6 2 17 24 82 24 29 26 77 25 -1 1 ” 3 13 Table 8. Projections and actual em ploym ent changes in Georgia, by selected occupation, 1950-60 Employment Occupation Actual Professional, technical, and k in d re d ............................. Chemists .................................................................... Draftsmen .................................................................. Engineers, e le ctrica l.................................................. Nurses, professional.................................................. Technicians, medical and d e n ta l............................. Managers, officials and proprietors, except farm . . . . Clerical and k in d re d ........................................................ Bank tellers ............................................................... C a sh ie rs ...................................................................... Office machine op erators......................................... Secretaries, stenographers, and ty p is ts .................. Salesworkers .................................................................... Craftsmen, foremen, and kin d red .................................. Bakers ........................................................................ Brickmasons, stonemasons and tilesetters ........... C a rp e n te rs .................................................................. Compositors and typesetters .................................. Electricians ............................................................... L in e m e n ...................................................................... Machinists .................................................................. Mechanics and repairmen, a u to m o b ile .................. Mechanics and repairmen, radio and T V .............. M illw rig h ts.................................................................. Painters, construction and m aintenance................ Plumbers and pipefitters ................................. . . . Tool and diemakers and setters .............................. Operatives and kindred .................................... ............. Attendants, auto service and p a rk in g .................... Bus, truck and tractor drivers.................................. Laundry and dry cleaning o p eratives.................... Meatcutters ............................................................... Welders and flame-cutters ....................................... Service workers, except private hou seh old .................. Practical nurses ........................................................ Waiters and waitresses ............................................. Laborers, except farm and m in e .................................... 14 78,035 526 956 359 5,333 1,326 89,497 107,718 886 4,486 1,620 23,419 74,807 128,438 1,458 4,160 22,444 1,966 4,494 3,619 5,493 14,865 1,182 397 7,766 4,050 193 248,211 5,024 35,058 11,988 2,549 2,513 79,282 3,249 9,926 93,919 Percent change 1950-60 1960 1950 39,592 200 983 1,509 3,641 1,213 25,738 54,557 1,295 4,076 2,847 15,114 17,084 32,900 17 1,323 -1 ,9 4 5 588 1,593 1,559 998 1,495 931 197 -4 6 602 644 46,848 4,041 10,793 -1 ,4 5 2 330 2,578 27,605 1,364 3,446 -8 ,0 6 9 Projected 37,493 84 836 237 2,036 822 15,782 55,460 1,149 5,657 2,492 11,233 23,265 35,081 286 918 -8 5 9 420 1,279 1,324 871 5,549 623 50 30 897 184 44,573 3,259 12,235 -1 ,6 2 9 200 1,817 22,187 410 3,254 -4 ,1 3 9 Actual 51 38 103 420 68 91 29 51 146 91 176 65 23 26 Projected 48 16 87 66 38 62 18 51 130 126 154 48 31 27 1 20 32 -9 30 35 43 18 22 10 79 50 -1 13 334 19 80 31 -1 2 13 10,3 35 42 35 -9 -4 21 28 37 16 37 53 13 0 22 95 18 65 35 -1 4 8 72 28 13 33 -4 Table 9. Projections and actual em ploym ent changes in Virginia, by selected occupation, 1950-60 Employment Occupation Actual Professional, technical, and k in d re d ............................. Chemists .................................................................... Draftsmen ................................................................. Engineers, e le ctrica l.................................................. Nurses, professional.................................................. Technicians, medical and d e n ta l............................. Managers, officials and proprietors, except farm . . . . Clerical and k in d re d ........................................................ Bank t e lle r s ............................................................... C a sh ie rs ...................................................................... Office machine operators......................................... Secretaries, stenographers, and t y p is t s .................. Salesworkers .................................................................... Craftsmen, foremen, and k in d red .................................. Bakers ........................................................................ Brickmasons, stonemasons and tilesetters ........... C a rp en ters.................................................................. Compositors and typesetters .................................. Electricians ............................................................... Lin e m e n ...................................................................... Machinists .................................................................. Mechanics and repairmen, a u to m o b ile .................. Mechanics and repairmen, radio and T V .............. M illw rights.................................................................. Painters, construction and m aintenance................ Plumbers and pipefitters ......................................... Tool and diemakers and setters ............................. Operatives and kindred .................................................. Attendants, auto service and p a rk in g .................... Bus, truck and tractor drivers.................................. Laundry and drycleaning operatives....................... Meatcutters ........................... ................................... Welders and flame-cutters ....................................... Service workers, except private ho u seh o ld .................. Practical nurses ......................................................... Waiters and waitresses ............................................. Laborers, except farm and m in e .................................... 94,723 1,219 2,443 2,321 7,082 1,216 89,308 129,057 1,073 4,228 1,767 33,926 72,000 152,022 1,400 4,007 23,696 2,395 7,402 4,259 7,837 13,964 1,346 774 9,472 6 ,6 8 6 259 223,314 4,912 37,529 10,114 2,191 3,339 75,259 3,220 12,296 87,917 Percent change 1950-60 1960 1950 59,006 152 1,182 2,173 4,795 1,183 16,989 59,177 1,644 5,120 2,289 20,422 21,967 25,527 -7 1 1,401 -2 ,7 3 6 388 1,048 1,699 223 1,038 884 94 225 1,095 142 17,585 3,807 4,587 -1 ,0 1 4 456 2,032 26,267 740 2,937 -3 2 ,6 6 9 Projected 53,257 176 1,614 1,343 3,593 964 15,568 54,855 1,266 5,239 2,215 13,754 23,750 31,308 27 495 -1 ,5 8 9 689 1,467 1,764 258 1,931 699 174 -2 6 5 1,365 143 23,072 2,556 10,603 -1 ,1 8 5 222 2,561 24,441 1,286 4,433 -6 ,9 2 4 Actual 62 12 48 94 68 97 19 46 153 121 130 60 31 17 -5 35 -1 2 16 14 40 3 7 66 Projected 56 14 66 58 51 79 17 43 118 124 125 41 33 21 2 12 -7 29 20 41 3 14 52 12 22 2 -3 16 55 20 55 8 10 78 52 28 12 -1 0 21 61 35 23 24 -3 7 -1 2 10 77 32 40 36 -8 15 Table 10. Projections and actual em ploym ent changes in West Virg inia by selected occupation, 1950*60 Employment Occupation Actual Professional, technical, and k in d re d .............................. Chemists .................................................................... Draftsmen .................................................................. Engineers, e le ctrica l.................................................. Nurses, p rofessio nal.................................................. Technicians, medical and d e n ta l.............................. Managers, officials and proprietors, except f a r m ___ Clerical and k in d re d ........................................................ Bank tellers ............................................................... C a s h ie r s ...................................................................... Office machine op erato rs......................................... Secretaries, stenographers, and ty p is ts .................. Sa le w o rk e rs...................................................................... Craftsmen, foremen, and k in d red .................................. Bakers ........................................................................ Brickmasons, stonemasons and tilesetters ........... C a rp e n te rs .................................................................. Compositors and typesetters .................................. Electricians ............................................................... L in e m e n ...................................................................... Machinists .................................................................. Mechanics and repairmen, a u to m o b ile .................. Mechanics and repairmen, radio and T V .............. M illw rig hts.................................................................. Painters, construction and m aintenance................ Plumbers and pipefitters ......................................... Tool and diemakers and setters ............................. Operatives and kindred .................................................. Attendants, auto service and p a rk in g ..................... Bus, truck and tractor d rivers.................................. Laundry and dry cleaning o p eratives.................... Meatcutters ............................................................... Welders and flame-cutters ....................................... Service workers, except private hou seh old .................. Practical nurses ......................................................... Waiters and waitresses ............................................. Laborers, except farm and m in e .................................... 16 45,813 927 699 673 3,614 610 46,427 53,104 467 2,204 565 10,354 38,715 90,537 802 1,808 9,130 934 6,480 1,937 4,584 6,556 436 980 3,109 3,466 330 195,118 2,642 21,332 3,817 1,275 2,816 36,590 1,059* 7,164 39,744 Percent change 1950-60 1960 1950 9,777 179 127 49 910 553 —5,241 5,885 208 1,577 669 2,599 1,302 -9 ,661 -2 4 1 -2 6 8 -2 ,7 9 5 49 -1 ,231 167 -1 ,3 8 8 -5 5 7 450 193 -6 3 7 -1 7 9 54 -6 6 ,3 2 0 1,146 -2 ,3 7 6 -8 0 3 -8 1 426 5,303 833 124 -6 ,5 0 7 Projected 10,629 44 249 93 1,342 375 -3 ,7 6 6 7,822 338 1,940 479 1 ,2 2 2 2,090 -6,641 -1 5 0 -1 6 5 -2 ,6 2 2 28 -1 ,1 4 6 402 -9 3 3 -5 7 1 211 105 -7 6 0 -1 3 7 29 -6 7 ,6 4 2 1,118 109 -1 ,0 9 2 -1 4 3 544 4,300 509 543 -9 ,2 2 5 Actual 21 19 18 7 25 91 -1 1 11 45 72 118 25 3 -1 1 -3 0 -1 5 -3 1 5 -1 9 9 -3 0 -9 103 20 -2 0 -5 16 -3 4 43 Projected 23 5 36 14 37 61 - 8 15 72 88 85 12 5 -7 -1 9 -9 -2 9 3 -1 8 21 -2 0 -9 48 11 -2 4 -4 9 -3 5 42 -1 1 1 -2 1 -2 9 - 6 15 14 79 -1 1 19 12 48 2 8 -1 6 -2 3 Table 11. Projections and actual em ploym ent changes in V erm o n t, by selected occupation, 1950-60 Employment Occupation Actual Professional, technical, and k in d re d .............................. Chemists .................................................................... Draftsmen .................................................................. Engineers, e le ctrica l.................................................. Nurses, professional.................................................. Technicians, medical and d e n ta l.............................. Managers, officials and proprietors, except farm . . . . Clerical and k in d re d ......................................................... Bank tellers ............................................................... C a sh ie rs ...................................................................... Office machine op erators......................................... Secretaries, stenographers, and ty p is ts .................. Salesworkers ................................................................... Craftsmen, foremen, and kin d red .................................. Bakers ........................................................................ Brickmasons, stonemasons and tilesetters ........... C a rp en ters.................................................................. Compositors and typesetters .................................. Electricians ............................................................... Lin e m e n ...................................................................... Machinists .................................................................. Mechanics and repairmen, a u to m o b ile .................. Mechanics and repairmen, radio and T V .............. M illw rights.................................................................. Painters, construction and m aintenance................ Plumbers and pipefitters ......................................... Tool and diemakers and setters .............................. Operatives and kindred .................................................. Attendants, auto service and p a rk in g .................... Bus, truck and tractor d rivers.................................. Laundry and dry cleaning o p eratives.................... Meatcutters ............................................................... Welders and flame-cutters ...................................... Service workers, except private h ou seh old .................. Practical nurses ......................................................... Waiters and waitresses ............................................. Laborers, except farm and m in e .................................... 11,745 53 334 136 1,470 155 11,786 13,967 210 405 86 2,834 8,077 17,571 199 186 2,314 406 556 528 1,145 2,085 107 116 1,006 728 163 25,985 493 3,772 595 274 194 9,331 452 1,574 8,174 Percent change 1950-60 1960 1950 3,944 -1 1 67 11 190 161 -7 2 3,046 150 423 125 1,154 1,071 979 -2 1 9 -1 5 5 -1 3 -7 118 240 7 119 3 -2 4 5 -2 8 114 -6 7 6 190 280 4 93 89 2,887 227 641 -1 ,5 5 0 Projected 3,957 -4 208 65 567 97 523 3,505 174 424 90 604 1,307 915 -1 8 30 -1 6 1 Actual 34 -2 1 20 8 13 104 -1 22 71 104 145 41 13 6 -1 1 66 5 -7 -3 30 -1 68 16 -3 3 8 29 2 -5 4 85 42 -6 4 9 254 441 -5 2 1 97 2,165 211 583 -1 ,4 4 3 22 Projected 34 -8 62 48 39 63 4 25 83 105 105 21 16 5 -9 16 -7 16 5 13 21 1 0 -1 6 27 111 3 -2 4 -4 70 -3 39 7 1 34 46 31 50 41 -1 9 2 -5 12 26 -3 52 12 -9 0 50 23 47 37 -1 8 17 Table 12. Average deviation o f test results fro m actual em p loym ent in 9 m etropolitan a rea s1 1950 population SM SA Los Angeles-Long Beach . . 4,367,911 Washington, D .C ................... 1,464,089 B altim ore.............................. 1,405,399 Miami .................................. 495,084 O m a h a .................................. 366,395 Phoenix ................................ 331,770 Trenton ................................ 229,561 Spokane ................................ 221,561 Baton R o u g e ....................... 158,236 Average percent Table 13. Percent difference between actual and estimated change in em ploym ent in selected occupations, 1950-60, nine m etropolitan areas Percent Differences Los Angeles- D.C.Balti M i Oma Tren Spo Baton Phoe Long Beach Md. Va. more ami ha ton kane Rouge nix deviation 10.5 1 1 .2 9.7 1 1 .1 1 1 .2 16.6 13.2 12.7 13.0 0 -10 11 -2 0 21-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 61 and ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ over 16 11 3 5 0 0 2 23 5 0 4 1 3 1 24 9 1 1 1 1 0 16 7 3 3 3 1 4 21 11 1 1 0 1 2 20 19 7 6 3 .0 0 2 9 2 1 3 1 1 18 7 1 5 1 3 2 3 3 3 2 2 3 21 1 Mean difference from 100.0 percent, ignoring sign. Table 14. Projections and actual em ploym en t changes in Long Beach-Los Angeles, Calif, by selected occu pation , 1950-60 Employment Occupation I960 1950 Actual Professional, technical, and k in d re d .............................. Chemists .................................................................... Draftsmen .................................................................. Engineers, e le c tric a l.................................................. Nurses, p rofessio nal.................................................. Technicians, medical and d e n ta l.............................. Managers, officials and proprietors, except farm . . . . Clerical and k in d re d ......................................................... Bank tellers ............................................................... C a sh ie rs ...................................................................... Office machine op erato rs......................................... Secretaries, stenographers, and t y p is t s .................. Salesworkers .................................................................... Craftsmen, foremen, and k in d re d .................................. Bakers ........................................................................ Brickmasons, stonemasons and tilesetters ........... C a rp e n te rs .................................................................. Compositors and typesetters .................................. Electricians ............................................................... L in e m e n ...................................................................... Machinists .................................................................. Mechanics and repairmen, a u to m o b ile .................. Mechanics and repairmen, radio and T V .............. M illw rig hts.................................................................. Painters, construction and m aintenance................ Plumbers and pipefitters ......................................... Tool and diemakers and setters .............................. Operatives and kindred .................................................. Attendants, auto service and p a rk in g .................... Bus, truck and tractor drivers.................................. Laundry and dry cleaning o p e ra tive s.................... Meatcutters ............................................................... Welders and flame-cutters ......................... ............. Service workers, except private ho u seh o ld .................. Practical nurses ......................................................... Waiters and waitresses .................................. .. Laborers, except farm and m in e .................................... 18 207,196 2,266 5,515 4,974 16,999 3,814 203,406 253,673 3,173 10,266 7,328 63,443 157,476 265,659 3,907 3,236 30,604 5,617 11,546 9,057 19,269 19,816 3,795 731 16,869 8,762 6,083 293,627 9,890 42,507 13,668 6,206 8,614 145,119 6,129 25,805 78,507 162,386 700 7,295 12,330 9,978 3,706 47,097 194,590 3,621 9,780 11,176 49,407 54,193 100,628 529 1,116 -4 ,6 3 0 1,635 3,786 3,939 14,061 5.008 997 10 2 1,347 2,698 3,040 150,130 5,806 14,784 666 859 6,555 58,249 1,678 8,821 15,918 „ Projected 173,101 815 9,013 9,142 9,647 2,956 59,484 183,455 5,457 1 0 ,2 1 0 14,004 45,213 63,513 114,039 952 507 -8 9 1 1,381 4,124 5,011 11,268 6,690 2,630 521 211 2,119 5,159 158,883 5,015 16,265 291 909 9,735 58,423 5,114 11,286 10,729 Percent change 1950*60 Actual 78 31 132 248 59 97 23 77 114 95 153 78 34 38 14 34 -1 5 29 33 43 73 25 26 14 8 31 50 51 59 35 5 14 76 40 27 34 20 Projected 84 36 163 184 57 78 29 72 172 99 191 71 40 43 24 16 -3 25 36 55 58 34 69 71 1 24 85 54 51 38 2 15 113 40 83 44 14 Table 15. Projections and actual em ploym ent changes in W ashington, D .C ., b y selected occu pation , 1950-60 Employment Occupation Actual Professional, technical, and k in d re d .............................. Chemists .................................................................... Draftsmen .................................................................. Engineers, e le ctrica l.................................................. Nurses, professional.................................................. Technicians, medical and d e n ta l.............................. Managers, officials and proprietors, except farm . . . . Clerical and k in d re d ......................................................... Bank tellers ............................................................... C a sh ie rs ...................................................................... Office machine op erators......................................... Secretaries, stenographers, and ty p is ts .................. S alew orkers...................................................................... Craftsmen, foremen, and kin d red .................................. Bakers ........................................................................ Brickmasons, stonemasons and tilesetters ........... C a rp en ters................................................................. Compositors and typesetters .................................. Electricians ............................................................... Lin em en ...................................................................... Machinists ................................................................. Mechanics and repairmen, a u to m o b ile .................. Mechanics and repairmen, radio and T V .............. M illw rights........................................................ * . . . . Painters, construction and m aintenance................ Plumbers and pipefitters ......................................... Tool and diemakers and setters .............................. Operatives and kindred .................................................. Attendants, auto service and p a rk in g ..................... Bus, truck and tractor drivers.................................. Laundry and dry cleaning op eratives..................... Meatcutters ............................................................... Welders and flame-cutters ...................................... Service workers, except private hou seh old .................. Practical nurses ........................................................ Waiters and waitresses ............................................. Laborers, except farm and m in e .................................... 98,519 1,344 3,093 3,224 5,415 1,367 50,960 170,756 737 3,198 4,075 54,304 39,253 73,107 1,085 3,392 8,081 3,228 3,360 2,984 4,052 5,484 1,303 25 4,918 3,732 285 54,309 2,517 12,157 5,752 1,653 720 62,940 1,844 8,491 29,346 Percent change 1950-60 1960 1950 52,820 531 807 2,260 2,304 1,031 19,152 23,754 640 2,451 1,059 12,713 10,345 7,809 -1 7 2 -3 1 4 -1 ,2 3 6 24 125 996 -1 ,2 9 9 401 -111 12 353 -4 8 -4 9 3,621 556 1,711 3,138 32 268 9,043 686 401 -2 ,3 4 0 Projected Actual 49,991 26 1,370 1,224 1,882 769 7,411 41,820 588 3,514 3,609 13,323 12,598 9,413 92 242 -1 ,0 9 5 -3 0 7 518 813 -5 2 6 19 364 7 -2 0 1 421 28 5,905 1,040 1,937 -7 1 9 557 256 12,349 888 331 -2 6 2 54 40 26 70 43 75 38 14 87 77 26 23 26 11 -1 6 -9 -1 5 1 4 33 -3 2 7 -9 48 7 -1 -1 7 7 22 14 55 2 37 14 37 5 -8 Projected 51 2 44 38 35 56 15 24 80 110 89 25 32 13 8 7 -1 4 -10 15 27 -1 3 0 28 28 -4 11 10 11 41 16 -1 3 34 36 20 48 4 -1 19 Table 16. Projections and actual em ploym ent changes in Baltim ore, M d ., by selected occupation, 1950-60 Employment Occupation Actual Professional, technical, and k in d re d .............................. Chemists .................................................................... Draftsmen .................................................................. Engineers, e le ctrica l.................................................. Nurses, p rofessional.................................................. Technicians, medical and d e n ta l............................. Managers, officials and proprietors, except farm . . . . Clerical and k in d re d ........................................................ Bank tellers ............................................................... C a sh ie rs ...................................................................... Office machine operators......................................... Secretaries, stenographers- and ty p is ts .................. S a le w orkers...................................................................... Craftsmen, foremen, and k in d re d .................................. Bakers ........................................................................ Brickmasons, stonemasons and tilesetters ........... C a rp e n te rs.................................................................. Compositors and typesetters .................................. Electricians ............................................................... L in e m e n ...................................................................... Machinists .................................................................. Mechanics and repairmen, a u to m o b ile .................. Mechanics and repairmen, radio and T V M illw rig hts.................................................................. Painters, construction and m aintenance................ Plumbers and pipefitters ......................................... Tool and diemakers and setters ............................. Operatives and kindred .................................................. Attendants, auto service and p a rk in g .................... Bus, truck and tractor drivers.................................. Laundry and dry cleaning o p eratives.................... M e a tc u tte rs......... ...................................................... Welders and flame-cutters ....................................... Service workers, except private hou seh old .................. Practical nurses ......................................................... Waiters and waitresses ............................................. Laborers, except farm and m in e .................................... 20 48,258 993 1,825 1,430 4,073 843 47,873 79,297 603 2,389 2,109 18,642 39,577 87,587 1,496 2,427 7,754 2,358 3,891 1,980 6,495 5,134 1 ,1 2 0 524 4,174 4,095 1,205 104,542 1,747 12,242 4,917 1,670 3,484 46,569 1,421 6,821 40,263 Percent change 1950-60 1960 1950 25,817 -1 1 6 1,0 0 2 1,927 1,924 692 381 28,437 68 8 2,622 2,058 6,767 8,042 7,036 -2 5 6 -1 1 3 -3 3 5 -1 4 5 359 706 -1 ,0 6 2 659 -1 3 3 -9 0 -1 2 7 -2 6 7 178 9,965 1,038 2,343 -7 6 5 -3 0 5 779 9,064 231 648 -5 ,5 5 2 Projected 24,881 23 1,133 1,158 1,637 658 2,186 27,445 586 2,260 2,400 6,132 5,557 11,038 -3 2 234 -1 ,1 6 5 0 395 553 -3 9 773 267 156 -5 3 8 316 216 11,986 1,135 1,320 -7 2 6 -1 8 6 1,027 7,137 521 1,286 -3 ,4 7 0 Actual 53 -12 55 135 47 82 1 36 114 110 98 36 20 8 -1 7 -5 -4 -6 9 36 -1 6 13 -12 -1 7 -3 -7 15 10 59 19 -1 6 -1 8 22 19 16 10 -1 4 Projected 52 2 62 81 40 78 5 35 97 95 114 33 14 13 -2 10 -1 5 0 10 28 -1 15 24 30 -1 3 8 18 11 65 11 -1 5 -11 29 15 37 19 -9 Table 17. Projections and actual em ploym ent changes in M iam i, Fla, by selected occu pation , 1950-60 Employment Percent change 1950-60 1960 Occupation 1950 Actual Professional, technical, and k in d re d ............................. Chemists .................................................................... Draftsmen .................................................................. Engineers, e le ctrica l.................................................. Nurses, professional.................................................. Technicians, medical and d e n ta l.............................. Managers, officials and proprietors, except farm . . . . Clerical and k in d re d ........................................................ Bank tellers ............................................................... C a sh ie rs ...................................................................... Office machine op erators......................................... Secretaries, stenographers, and t y p is t s .................. Sale w o rk e rs ...................................................................... Craftsmen, foremen, and k in d re d .................................. Bakers ........................................................................ Brickmasons, stonemasons and tilesetters ........... C a rp e n te rs ........................................... ...................... Compositors and typesetters .................................. Electricians ............................................................... L in em en ...................................................................... Machinists .................................................................. Mechanics and repairmen, a u to m o b ile .................. Mechanics and repairmen, radio and T V .............. M illw rights................................................................. Painters, construction and m aintenance................ Plumbers and pipefitters ......................................... Tool and diemakers and setters ............................. Operatives and kindred .................................................. Attendants, auto service and p a rk in g .................... Bus, truck and tractor drivers.................................. Laundry and dry cleaning op eratives.................... Meatcutters ............................................................... Welders and flame-cutters ...................................... Service workers, except private h ou sehold .................. Practical nurses ........................................................ Waiters and waitresses ............................................. Laborers, except farm and m in e .................................... 19,501 63 262 293 1,939 525 28,213 25,904 251 1,933 274 6,315 19,369 30,038 539 996 4,763 577 1,378 1,127 522 2,409 468 8 2 ,1 1 0 891 65 21,713 1,146 4,903 2,551 751 281 27,368 591 5,805 11,331 19,724 71 497 162 1,765 538 12,198 28,019 550 1,996 897 6,883 13,660 16,939 283 -2 9 -5 5 1 10 1 360 703 510 1,470 536 8 806 87 232 18,734 735 3,173 310 249 577 15,005 429 2,069 3,483 Projected 19,542 44 397 298 2,149 721 13,102 29,199 68 6 3,296 687 6,656 14,137 16,799 277 176 -3 1 198 572 1,225 393 1,614 545 8 95 202 135 17,702 1,050 2,927 489 336 393 15,019 501 2,131 3,777 Actual Projected 10 1 113 190 55 91 10 2 43 108 219 103 327 109 71 56 53 -3 -12 18 26 62 98 61 115 100 38 10 357 86 64 65 12 33 205 55 73 36 31 100 70 152 10 2 111 137 46 113 273 171 251 105 73 56 51 18 -1 34 42 109 75 67 116 100 5 23 208 82 92 60 19 45 140 55 85 37 33 21 Table 18. Projections and actual em ploym ent changes in Om aha, Nebraska, by selected occupation, 1950-60 Em ploym ent Occupation Actual Professional, technical, and k in d re d .............................. Chemists .................................................................... Draftsmen .................................................................. Engineers, E lectrica l.................................................. Nurses, professional Technicians, medical and d e n ta l.............................. Managers, officials and proprietors, except farm . . . . Clerical and k in d re d ......................................................... Bank tellers ............................................................... C a sh ie rs ...................................................................... Office machine operators......................................... Secretaries, stenographers, and t y p is t s .................. Salesworkers .................................................................... Craftsmen, foremen, and k in d re d .................................. Bakers ......................................................................... Brickmasons, stonemasons and tilesetters ......... C a rp e n te rs .................................................................. Compositors and typesetters .................................. Electricians ............................................................... Linemen .................................................................... Machinists .................................................................. Mechanics and repairmen, a u to m o b ile .................. Mechanics and repairmen, radio and T V .............. M illw rig hts.................................................................. Painters, construction and m aintenance................ Plumbers and pipefitters ......................................... Tool and diemakers and setters .............................. Operatives and kindred .................................................. Attendants, auto service and p a rk in g .................... Bus, truck and tractor d rivers.................................. Laundry and dry cleaning op e ra tive s..................... Meatcutters ............................................................... Welders and flam e-cutters........................................ Service workers, except private h o u seh o ld .................. Practical nurses ......................................................... Waiters and waitresses ............................................. Laborers, except farm and m in e .................................... 22 13,679 121 322 274 1,384 272 14,236 27,131 145 749 900 6,044 12,571 20,192 420 453 1,980 527 792 612 1,032 1,925 158 98 1,194 667 32 21,823 557 4,754 1,188 492 708 13,396 314 2,300 11,845 Percent change 1950-60 I960 1950 5,572 28 137 118 673 232 1,145 6,449 146 848 691 1,780 1,030 2,862 -6 0 121 32 -2 1 213 339 66 211 99 5 -2 0 8 208 167 5,500 361 184 -1 4 3 -7 8 249 3,154 228 316 -3 ,2 5 2 1 Projected Actual Projected 6,656 4 351 261 853 245 631 7,736 127 632 872 1,766 1,962 3,307 -5 2 105 -4 7 47 144 320 15 185 10 0 6 -1 4 108 22 3,425 301 279 -2 0 9 -4 375 3,338 341 364 -1 ,7 4 4 41 23 43 43 49 85 8 24 10 1 113 77 29 8 14 -1 4 27 2 -4 27 55 6 11 63 5 -1 7 31 522 25 65 4 -12 -1 6 35 24 73 14 -2 7 49 3 109 95 62 90 4 29 88 84 97 29 16 16 -12 23 -2 9 18 52 1 10 63 6 -1 16 69 16 54 6 -1 8 -1 53 25 109 16 -1 5 Table 19. Projections and actual em ploym ent changes in T rento n, New Jersey, by selected occupation, 1950-60 Em ploym ent Occupation Actual Professional, technical, and k in d re d .............................. Chemists ......... .......................................................... Draftsmen .................................................................. Engineers, e le c tric a l.................................................. Nurses, professional.................................................. Technicians, medical and d e n ta l.............................. Managers, officials and proprietors, except farm . . . . Clerical and k in d re d ......................................................... Bank tellers ................................................................ C a sh ie rs ...................................................................... Office machine operators......................................... Secretaries, stenographers, and t y p is t s .................. Salesworkers .................................................................... Craftsmen, foremen, and kin d red .................................. Bakers ........................................................................ Brickmasons, stonemasons and tilesetters ........... C a rp e n te rs.................................................................. Compositors and typesetters .................................. Electricians ............................................................... L in em en ...................................................................... Machinists .................................................................. Mechanics and repairmen, a u to m o b ile .................. Mechanics and repairmen, radio and T V .............. M illw rig hts.................................................................. Painters, construction and m aintenance................ Plumbers and pipefitters ......................................... Tool and diemakers and s e tte r s .............................. Operatives and kindred .................................................. Attendants, auto service and p a rk in g .................... Bus, truck and tractor drivers.................................. Laundry and dry cleaning o p eratives.................... Meatcutters .................. ............................................ Welders and flame-cutters.................................... .. . Service workers, except private household ................ Practical nurses ........................................................ Waiters and waitresses ............................................. Laborers, except farm and m in e .................................... 10,052 181 302 210 810 188 8,816 14,515 108 337 429 4,072 5,856 13,482 250 415 1,113 299 505 304 1,141 909 173 92 579 519 428 25,612 284 2,269 833 324 312 8,005 187 964 5,927 Percent change 1950-60 1960 1950 5,115 78 201 160 366 52 -5 1 2 3,566 47 201 282 1,365 685 1,119 -1 8 -10 18 39 53 186 -2 9 8 22 -4 7 -10 54 139 69 -3 ,1 5 9 47 132 -1 1 3 -5 2 114 2,090 -7 365 -9 1 0 Projected Actual 4,539 15 161 132 411 169 299 3,967 74 286 380 1,031 659 768 -7 83 -10 2 40 38 195 -2 1 5 -5 8 18 9 -1 3 67 -8 8 -3 ,4 1 1 83 68 -9 9 -5 3 30 1,855 142 236 -8 5 9 51 43 67 76 45 28 -6 25 44 60 66 34 fl 8 -7 -2 2 13 11 61 -2 6 2 -2 7 -11 9 27 16 -12 17 6 -1 4 -1 6 37 26 -4 38 -1 5 Projected 45 8 53 63 51 90 3 27 69 85 89 25 11 6 -3 20 -9 13 8 64 -1 9 -6 10 10 -2 13 -2 1 -1 3 29 3 -12 -1 6 10 23 76 24 -1 4 23 Table 20. Projections and actual em ploym ent changes in Spokane, W ashington, by selected occupation, 1950-60 Employment Occupation Actual Professional, technical, and k in d re d ............................. Chemists .................................................................... D ra fts m e n .................................................................. Engineers, ele ctrica l.................................................. Nurses, professional.................................................. Technicians, medical and dental ........................... Managers, officials and proprietors, except farm . . . . Clerical and kindred ...................................................... Bank te lle r s ............................................................... C a sh iers...................................................................... Office machine operators......................................... Secretaries, stenographers and typists .................. Salesworkers .................................................................... Craftsmen, foremen, and kindred ................................ B a k e rs ........................................................................ Brickmasons, stonemasons and tile s e tte rs ........... C a rp en ters................................................................. Compositors and typ esetters.................................. Electricians ............................................................... Linemen .................................................................... M a ch in is ts .................................................................. Mechanics and repairmen, a u to m o b ile .................. Mechanics and repairmen, radio and T V ................ M illw rights.................................................................. Painters, construction and m aintenance................ Plumbers and pipefitters ......................................... Tool and diemakers and s e tte rs .............................. Operatives and kindred .................................................. Attendants, auto service and p a rk in g .................... Bus, truck and tractor drivers ................................ Laundry and dry cleaning operatives .................. M ea tcu tters............................................................... Welders and flame-cutters ...................................... Service workers, except private household.................. Practical nurses ........................................................ Waiters and w aitresses............................................. Laborers, except farm and mine .................................. 24 7,909 62 104 167 873 200 9,280 11,492 131 492 238 2,808 7,808 12,245 227 161 1,744 202 523 471 434 1,182 78 104 669 353 21 11,598 425 2,610 691 293 263 7,990 329 1,464 4,626 Percent change 1950-60 1960 1950 3,351 2 64 39 425 92 1,664 3,709 142 423 238 710 893 511 -4 9 20 -4 3 6 79 -6 84 -6 8 -8 3 10 0 -2 2 -1 6 6 28 -1 295 164 -2 5 -1 3 3 -1 0 5 115 1,907 229 118 -4 1 6 Projected 3,788 4 66 62 315 133 433 3,795 113 486 278 891 1,451 1,113 -4 8 15 -2 0 3 -1 5 45 73 -2 3 52 44 23 -6 3 23 7 1,133 181 22 2 -1 4 7 29 130 2,545 403 79 -5 1 8 Actual Projected 42 3 62 23 49 46 18 32 108 86 10 0 25 11 4 -2 2 12 -2 5 39 48 6 63 37 36 67 5 33 86 99 117 32 19 9 -2 1 9 -12 -7 -1 18 -1 6 -7 128 -2 1 -2 5 8 -5 3 39 -1 -1 9 -3 6 44 24 70 8 -9 9 16 -5 16 56 22 -9 7 33 10 43 9 -2 1 10 49 32 122 5 -11 Table 21. Projections and actual em ploym ent changes in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, by selected occupation, 1950-60 Employment Occupation Percent change 1950-60 1960 1950 Actual Professional, technical, and k in d re d ............................. Chemists .................................................................... Draftsmen ................................................................. Engineers, e le ctrica l.................................................. Nurses, professional.................................................. Technicians, medical and d e n ta l............................. Managers, officials and proprietors, except farm . . . . Clerical and k in d re d ........................................................ Bank t e lle r s ......... ...................................................... C a sh ie rs ...................................................................... Office machine op erators......................................... Secretaries, stenographers, and t y p is t s .................. Sale w o rk e rs ...................................................................... Craftsmen, foremen, and kin d red .................................. Bakers ........................................................................ Brickmasons, stonemasons and tilesetters ........... C a rp en ters................................................................. Compositors and typesetters .................................. Electricians ............................................................... Lin em en ...................................................................... Machinists ................................................................. Mechanics and repairmen, a u to m o b ile .................. Mechanics and repairmen, radio and T V .............. M illw rights................................................................. Painters, construction and m aintenance................ Plumbers and pipefitters ......................................... Tool and diemakers and setters ............................. Operatives and kindred .................................................. Attendants, auto service and p a rk in g .................... Bus, truck and tractor drivers.................................. Laundry and drycleaning operatives....................... Meatcutters ............................................................... Welders and flame-cutters ....................................... Service workers, except private hou seh old .................. Practical nurses ......................................................... Waiters and waitresses ............................................. Laborers, except farm and m in e .................................... 6 ,8 8 6 262 114 104 384 80 4,857 7,412 53 371 149 2,156 3,777 8,779 129 254 1,198 137 519 271 444 585 57 40 501 872 1 8,894 336 1,493 772 116 360 5,278 190 737 4,532 Projected Actual Projected 4,952 94 187 38 193 99 3,007 4,367 58 323 196 1,267 1,444 1,934 -4 105 -12 0 26 114 134 -2 2 40 87 6 50 36 -1 925 188 588 -1 3 5 82 261 2,651 45 185 45 4,512 1 109 44 209 69 1,464 4,247 75 528 205 1,015 1,721 2,424 8 67 18 46 135 139 -1 4 253 54 17 16 113 0 2,043 198 542 -3 4 19 99 2,651 59 314 320 72 36 164 37 50 124 62 59 109 87 132 59 38 22 -3 41 -10 19 22 49 -5 7 153 15 10 4 -10 0 10 56 39 -1 7 71 73 50 24 25 1 66 0 96 42 54 86 30 57 142 142 138 47 46 28 6 26 2 34 26 51 -3 43 95 43 3 13 0 23 59 36 -4 16 28 50 31 43 7 25 Table 22. Projections and actual em ploym ent changes in Phoenix, A rizo n a , by selected occu pation , 1950-60 Employment Occupation Percent change 1950-60 1960 1950 Actual Projected Actual Projected 22,701 97 842 1,0 0 1 1,838 356 17,705 26,791 459 1,982 755 6,933 15,994 27,335 328 957 3,068 430 1,047 1,080 1,152 2,241 377 54 1,533 1,029 296 24,783 1,364 5,000 1,128 453 963 14,787 443 2,664 9,356 25,115 58 637 849 1,634 355 20,293 32,251 548 2,895 1,235 8,090 15,449 24,675 307 782 2,218 446 1,088 969 778 2,136 208 38 1,440 869 484 22,468 1,541 4,224 987 619 853 14,838 632 2,641 6,982 432 606 1,203 981 343 375 313 392 560 511 532 377 380 574 328 731 629 297 503 532 960 456 967 900 462 651 688 582 539 500 292 283 883 355 306 349 538 478 363 910 832 305 374 359 472 668 746 870 439 367 518 307 597 455 308 523 477 648 435 533 633 434 550 1,126 527 609 422 256 387 783 356 436 346 402 9 Professional, technical, and kindred ............................. C h e m is ts ...................................................................... D raftsm en.................................................................... Engineers, electrical .................................................. Nurses, professional.................................................... Technicians, medical and d e n t a l............................. Managers, officials and proprietors, except f a r m ......... Clerical and kindred ........................................................ Bank te lle rs ................................................................. Cashiers........................................................................ Office machine operators ......................................... Secretaries, stenographers, and typists .................. Salesw orkers.................................................... ................. Craftsmen, foremen, and k in d r e d .................................. B a k e rs........................................................................... Brickmasons, stonemasons and tilesetters ........... Carpenters .................................................................. Compositors and typesetters.................................... E le c tricia n s ................................................................. L in e m e n ...................................................................... M ach inists.................................................................... Mechanics and repairmen, automobile .................. Mechanics and repairmen, radio and T V ................ Millwrights .................................................................. Painters, construction and maintenance ................ Plumbers and p ip e fitte rs........................................... Tool and diemakers and setters................................ Operatives and k in d r e d .................................................... Attendants, auto service and parking .................... Bus, truck and tractor d r iv e r s .................................. Laundry and dry cleaning operatives....................... M eatcutters.................................................................. Welders and flam e-cutters......................................... Service workers, except private household .................. Practical n u rs e s ........................................................... Waiters and waitresses................................................ Laborers, except farm and mine . .................................. 26 5,259 16 70 10 2 536 95 5,653 6,834 82 388 142 1,841 4,209 4,764 10 0 131 488 145 208 203 12 0 491 39 6 332 158 43 4,260 253 1,0 0 1 386 160 109 4,163 145 763 1,739 C h a p te r II. V a ria n c e s in O c c u p a tio n a l D e a th and R e tir e m e n t R a te s 4 b y S t a t e Introduction For the Nation as a whole, over one-half of all new entrants into the labor force are needed to replace workers who die, retire, or leave the labor force for other reasons. In Volume I, appendix A of TMN, the Bureau presented national annual death and retirement rates, by occupation and by sex, that State agencies could use to compute the overall occupational demand. These rates were calculated by applying age-specific death and retirement rates by sex for the United States to the number of workers in each occupation in the United States in 1960. Thus, the number of losses in each occupation, as a percent of employment in that occupation, provided a national average rate. In addi tion, Volume I also described and presented examples of how the standard working life table, together with State occupational age distribution information from the decennial census, might be used to develop occupational death and retirement rates for the State. During the past 3 years since the release of TMN, many States preparing estimates of job openings from death and retirements have used the national rates. This procedure merely assumes that the State age distribution generally followed the national age distribution for the same occupation. Because of the importance of estimat ing job openings from this source, especially in States expecting below-average growth, the Bureau examined the accuracy of the attrition estimates based on national age composition of each occupation by comparing them to attrition estimates computed from the actual age composition in each State. An effort also was made to determine whether these differences could be identified easily by examining factors such as the State’s median or average age of the working population or the State’s median age of a specific occupation, and comparing them to national averages. If consistencies in such relationships could be determined, then national rates could be adjusted to fit the State’s particular age differences and thereby localize the death and retire ment rates without developing death and retirement rates by occupation for the State through the regular procedures. Test Results As indicated earlier, Volume I of Tommorrow’s presented a table of “ Estimated Death and Retirement Rates for Selected Occupations, by Sex, for Employed Workers in the United States.” (See appendix A.) These rates were based on 1960 labor force participation rates and age distributions. Many States have used these national rates even though general age and occupational age distributions vary from State to State, as does the participation of women. To test the effect of these differences on death and retirement rates, occupational rates were computed for a selected group of States and compared with national average rates. Table 23 presents statistics for each of the States and for the Nation as a whole to provide insight into the possibility of adjusting the national rates to take into account the overall age distribution of States. These data were computed by age distribution for men and women employed in each State as reported in the 1960 Census to which were applied the age-specific separation rates for men and women shown in Volume I, tables 14 and 16. Although patterns are by no means consistent, data do show that, as expected, death and retirement rates tend to diverge from the U.S. rates in the same direction as does the median age. However, the exact shape of the age distribution also plays a part in determining death and retirement rates. For example, Missouri has a higher median age for both men and women than does Nebraska, yet it has lower estimated death and retirement rates in both cases. The contradic tion results because higher proportion of Nebraska’s Manpower Needs 4 A lth o u g h th e te rm “ d e a th a n d r e tir e m e n t ra tes” is u se d , th e d ata p re s e n te d h ere in c lu d e w ith d ra w a ls f r o m th e la b o r f o r c e f o r all rea son s (e .g ., m arria ge, ch ild b e a r in g , e t c .) . 27 employed population is concentrated in the younger and older age groups where withdrawals are higher. Another factor affecting the combined men and women death and retirement rates is the proportion of employed women. Because of marriage and childbearing, death and retirement rates for women are higher than for men; the higher the percentage of women employed, the higher will be the overall death and retirement rate, excluding other factors. For example, in the District of Columbia where median ages are not far different from the national average, the death and retirement rate is exceeded only by the State of Nebraska. The unusually high rate for the District occurs principally because women account for over 45 percent of the persons employed in D.C. compared to less than 33 percent in the United States as a whole. Tables 24 and 25 present death and retirement rates for men and women for selected States by occupation, based on the 1960 Census and the age-specific separation rates in Volume I. These data indicate that the use of the U.S. average rate introduces a substantial error in estimating some occupations in some States. For ex ample, the U.S. average for electrical engineers is one-third less than the average in Georgia. Also, not all State death and retirement rates diverge from the national rate in the same direction as do the rates for total employment. For example, although the death and retirement rate for males in West Virginia, based on total employment, exceeds that for the Nation, in only 14 cases have rates for the State been less than for the Nation for the same occupation, and in an additional eight occupations they are equal. Therefore, a procedure that adjusts the annual death and retirement rates for an occupation in the Nation as a whole, either by compar ing the median age of all workers in the State with those in the United States, or by computing death and retirement rates in the State for all workers and adjusting occupations, will not produce accurate esti mates for every occupation in the State. The potential implications of using national rather than State death and retirement rates are shown for Pennsylvania in table 28. Based on total employment, the rates for both men and women are equal to the rates 28 for the Nation as a whole. The first column of table 28 shows estimated deaths and retirements for the 1950-60 decade if national rates had been applied. The second column shows the estimated deaths and retirements when rates were calculated specifically for the State. Columns 3 and 4 show the numeric and percentage differences between the two estimates. Discrepancies range up to 27 percent; differences of 10 percent or more are not uncommon. However, these results are for a State which has death and retirement rates equal to those for the Nation. Tables 26 and 27 present estimated annual death and retirement rates for men and women by selected occupations for eight SMSA’s. Differences in the dispersion of the SMSA rates from the national averages were similar to dispersions shown by State rates. Although SMSA’s in some instances have a smaller population than States, the range of dispersion does not appear significantly different. Test conclusions In general, the test results appeared to indicate that for some States the use of national occupational rates generally will result in acceptable estimates of attrition. However, in others, especially those having belowaverage growth rates or above-average median age, the development of specific rates appears warranted and may significantly improve estimates of replacements. Although there generally appears to be a relationship between individual States and the Nation in median age and in death and retirement rates, this relationship is by no means highly predictable because of other factors, such as the age distribution and the participation of women in the labor force. No simple procedure exists for adjusting national rates to account for differences among States. Since more accurate estimates can be made easily by repetitive calculations and applying age-specific death and retirement rates to the actual age composition of the members of each occupation in the State, by sex, this procedure is recommended. It must be recognized that this procedure has limitations as de scribed. Table 23. Comparison of estimated annual death and retirement rates by State, 1960 State E m p lo y e d males A n n u al death and retirem ent rate M edian age E m p lo y e d females A n n u al death and retirem ent rate Median age Females as a percent o f em plo yed po pu latio n C o m b in e d annual death and retirem ent rate .0289 U nited S t a t e s ..................................... 4 0 .6 .0196 40 .4 .0479 32.75 A labam a ................................................... A l a s k a ........................................................ A r i z o n a ...................................................... Arkansas ................................................... C alifo rn ia ................................................. C o lo r a d o ................................................... C o n n e c t ic u t .............................................. D e la w a r e ................................................... 39.7 38.5 38.6 41 .7 40.1 .0178 .0135 .0154 .0268 36.56 30.88 39.6 4 1 .2 .0181 .0199 39.9 41.1 30 .1 8 33 .0 2 32.46 34.17 33.24 .0238 .0246 .0293 .0271 .0281 .0293 .0275 D istrict o f C o l u m b i a ............................. 4 0 .0 40.4 .0452 .0417 .0451 .0472 .0459 .0478 .0477 .0464 32 .8 5 .0216 .0178 .0187 .0197 39.1 36.1 39.4 41 .0 40 .4 39.6 41 .6 Flo rid a ...................................................... G e o r g ia ..................................................... H a w a ii........................................................ 39 .9 38 .9 4 0 .5 .0182 .0168 .0157 39.9 38.7 .0475 .0447 45 .6 7 34.94 .0325 .0275 .0450 .0407 35.79 34.65 .0269 .0244 Idaho .......................................................... 40 .4 41.1 40.1 41.1 .0202 .0207 .0478 .0491 28.69 32.88 .0281 .0301 .0488 .0534 31 .1 3 30.26 .0287 .0320 I llin o is ........................................................ Indiana ...................................................... Iowa ........................................................... K a n s a s ........................................................ K e n tu cky ................................................. Louisiana . , .............................................. Maine ........................................................ M a r y la n d ................................................... Massachusetts ......................................... M ichigan ................................................... M innesota ................................................. M is s is s ip p i................................................ M is s o u r i..................................................... M ontana ................................................... N e b r a s k a ................................................... Nevada ..................................................... New H a m p s h ire ....................................... New Jersey .................................. .. New M ex ico ............................................ New Y o r k ................................................. N o rth C arolina ....................................... N o rth Dakota ......................................... O h io ..................................................... .. . O k la h o m a ................................................. Oregon ..................................................... P e n n s y lv a n ia ............................................ R h o d e I s la n d ............................................ Sou th C arolin a ....................................... S o u th D akota .......................................... Tennessee ................................................. T e x a s .......................................................... Utah .......................................................... V e r m o n t ................................................... V i r g i n i a ...................................................... W a s h in g t o n .............................................. West V irg in ia ......................................... W isconsin ................................................. W y o m in g ................................................... SOURCE: 4 1 .2 40 .6 39.4 41.1 40 .0 4 1 .3 4 0 .2 4 0 .8 40 .7 4 1 .8 4 0 .9 4 1 .6 41 .0 41 .4 41 .5 38.1 .0196 .0227 .0228 .0202 .0165 36.9 40 .4 41.1 40.4 4 1 .6 4 1 .5 40 .2 39.1 .0511 .0484 31.18 29.41 .0316 .0285 .0451 31.44 .0255 .0176 .0214 .0183 .0215 42 .2 39.8 42.0 39,4 40 .5 .0505 .0452 .0509 .0475 .0536 33.42 33.28 36.14 .0207 .0224 39.5 .0464 33.61 .0293 41.7 .0500 32.97 .0315 .0213 40 .8 41.6 39.5 .0498 .0538 .0427 .0495 29.43 .0244 .0191 .0212 3 0 .9 2 33.06 36.26 .0296 .0335 .0269 32.52 29.87 .0213 4 2 .0 41.1 30.39 31.88 .0198 .0155 .0217 .0167 37.7 .0468 .0463 4 1 .7 38.1 .0493 .0444 34 .3 9 35.07 .0214 .0194 .0211 .0171 39.5 4 0 .3 41 .6 4 2 .0 .0525 .0487 .0484 .0489 28 .1 5 31.07 31.29 31 .8 3 .0200 .0205 .0157 .0234 40 .6 41.6 38.1 40 .8 39.2 39.7 38.0 42 .7 .0483 .0476 .0442 .0530 .0463 .0465 .0509 .0514 39.1 41 .2 40.7 .0460 .0481 .0478 32.52 35 .8 8 3 6 .6 5 29.08 32 .9 9 31.68 29.69 32 .7 5 33.66 31 .8 0 28.44 4 0 .8 40.1 .0506 .0474 4 2 .0 38.8 4 1 .0 4 0 .3 41 .2 41 .7 41.4 41 .6 38 .3 4 1 .3 40.1 39.8 38.3 41.1 39 .8 40.9 4 1 .2 .0189 .0188 .0175 .0216 .0179 .0196 .0205 4 0 .9 39.8 .0209 .0193 31.14 29.01 .0310 .0268 .0312 .0272 .0317 .0315 .0286 .0247 .0312 .0264 .0302 .0285 .0296 .0299 .0292 .0302 .0261 .0320 .0279 .0276 .0274 .0314 .0273 .0287 .0275 .0295 .0274 1960 Census o f Population. 29 Table 24. Annual death and retirement rates for men. United States and selected States, by occupation, 1950-60 U nited States C a lifo rn ia O h io Pennsylvania Georgia V irg in ia West V irg in ia V e rm o n t T o t a l ............................................................................ 2.0 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.7 1.8 2.1 2.2 Professional, technical and k i n d r e d ........................... 1.6 1.1 0.8 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.9 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.1 0 .8 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.8 1.0 1.5 1.4 1.8 0.3 1.3 1.7 2.5 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.2 1.8 2.0 1.9 1.6 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.7 2.3 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.6 ......................................................................... Brickm asons, stonemasons and tilesetters . . . . Carpenters .................................................................. C o m positors and typesetters ................................ E le c tric ia n s .................................................................. 2.1 1.5 2.3 1.9 1.4 2.0 2.1 0.9 2.3 1.2 2.1 1.5 1.0 0.6 1.1 1.2 2.2 1.4 1.4 L in e m e n ....................................................................... 1.8 0.7 1.9 1.6 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.1 M achinists 2.0 1.3 1.8 1.3 2.1 1.4 1.5 1.0 0.9 1.9 2.5 1.0 1.8 1.8 1.0 1.8 2.4 1.8 1.7 Operatives and k i n d r e d ................................................. A tten dan ts, au to service and p a r k i n g ................. 1.5 1.3 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.9 1.6 1.0 Bus, tru ck and tractor d r iv e r s ................................ L a u n d ry and d ry cleaning operatives ................. 1.2 2.1 1.3 2.2 1.3 2.4 Meatcutters ................................................................ 2.0 1.1 2.1 1.7 2.1 Welders and fla m e -c u tte rs ....................................... 1.2 1.2 3.0 2.2 1.7 O ccu pa tion C h e m is ts ....................................................................... Draftsm en .................................................................. Engineers, e le c t r ic a l................................................. Tech n ician s, medical and d e n t a l........................... Managers, officials and p roprietors, except farm .................................................................. Clerical and kindred ...................................................... S a le s w o rk e rs ..................................................................... C raftsm en, forem en, and kindred ............................. Bakers .................................................................. M echanics and repairm en, a u t o m o b ile ............... Mechanics and repairm en, radio and T V ............ M illw r ig h t s .................................................................. Painters, con stru ction and m a in t e n a n c e ............ Plum bers and p ip e fitt e rs ..................................... .... T o o l and diem akers and setters ........................... 1.9 1.6 ............ 2.7 1.3 2.4 Waiters and waitresses ............................................ Laborers, except farm and mine ................................ 1.9 1.7 2.0 1.7 Service w orkers, except private household Table 25. 1.9 1.9 1.4 2.1 2.0 1.7 0.9 1.9 1.3 1.0 1.9 2.5 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.0 0.9 2.9 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.3 2.8 2.2 1.9 2.1 1.8 1.9 1.5 2.0 2.8 1.7 1.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.9 1.1 2.2 1.9 1.4 1.7 1.1 0.7 1.7 0.9 1.7 2.2 1.3 1.3 2.2 1.4 2.6 1.8 1.5 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.4 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.6 1.3 1.0 1.5 1.3 1.0 1.7 1.1 1.8 2.1 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.7 1.3 0.9 1.1 1.2 2.2 1.7 3.1 2.2 2.2 0 .9 2.2 1.4 1.9 1.5 1.6 2.9 1.9 1.6 0.9 2.0 1.9 2.6 2.0 1.3 2.6 1.9 1.2 1.3 2.9 3.0 2.3 3.0 Annual death and retirement rates for women. United States and selected States, by occupation, 1950-60 West U n ited States C a lifo rn ia O h io Pennsylvania Georgia V irg in ia T o t a l ............................................................................ 4 .8 4.6 4 .9 4 .8 4 .5 4 .6 4 .8 5.1 Professional, tech n ical, and kindred ........................ Draftsm en .................................................................. Nurses, professional ................................................. 4.9 4 .5 4 .0 4 .4 5.1 5.1 4.7 4.8 4 .5 4.8 4.7 3.8 4 .3 4 .7 4 .3 4 .6 4 .7 4 .2 4 .4 5.0 5.1 4.4 4 .4 5.7 5.9 5.2 5.3 5.5 6.1 4 .8 4 .9 O ccu pa tion Te ch n icia n s, m edical and d e n t a l........................... - 4 .6 5.2 V irg in ia V e rm o n t Managers, officials and p roprietors, .................................................................. 4.7 4 .6 4.7 4 .8 4 .3 4.4 C lerical and kindred ...................................................... Cashiers ....................................................................... 4 .9 4 .5 4 .6 5.0 4 .6 4 .8 4 .6 4.7 4 .2 5.1 4.4 O ffic e m achine o p e r a t o r s ....................................... Secretaries, stenographers and t y p is t s ................. S a le s w o r k e r s ..................................................................... 5.1 5.1 4 .8 4.7 5.2 5.4 4 .9 5.1 4 .8 4 .3 4.1 4 .5 4.1 5.0 5.1 4.7 4.7 4 .6 4 .3 4 .3 3.8 4 .6 4 .0 4 .0 4 .0 4 .2 4.4 4 .3 4 .7 4 .0 4 .4 4 .7 3.9 4 .0 4 .4 4 .0 4 .2 4 .4 except farm Craftsm en, forem en, and kindred ............................. Operatives and k i n d r e d ................................................. L a u n d ry and d ry cleaning o p e r a t iv e s ................. 4 .3 5.4 5.1 ............ 4.4 4.7 Practical n u rs e s ........................................................... Waiters and waitresses ............................................ 5.6 4 .3 5.9 3.9 5.4 5.2 5.3 5.9 4 .4 4 .2 4 .8 4 .3 4.7 4 .7 4 .6 4 .5 4 .6 4 .3 Service w orkers, except private household Laborers, except farm and m ine 30 ................................ . 4 .6 4 .9 5.3 4 .6 4 .5 4.1 4.1 4 .6 5.4 4 .6 4 .7 5.2 5.0 4 .5 4.8 5.2 5.1 4.1 4.3 5.1 5.4 5.5 5.3 5.1 Table 26. Annual death and retirement rates for men, selected metropolitan areas, by occupation, 1950-60 Lo s AngelesWash., D .C . Baltim ore Lon g Beach O ccu pa tion Professional, technical, and k i n d r e d ................................ Chem ists ............................................................................ D r a f t s m e n ......................................................................... Engineers, e le c t r ic a l........................................................ Tech n ician s, m edical and dental ................................ Managers, officials and p roprietors, except f a r m .......... Clerical and k i n d r e d ............................................................. S a le s w o rk e rs........................................................................... Craftsm en, forem en, and k i n d r e d ..................................... B a k e r s ................................................................................ Brickm asons, stonemasons and t ile s e t t e r s ............... C a r p e n t e r s ......................................................................... C o m positors and t y p e s e t t e r s ....................................... E lectricians ....................................................................... Lin em en ............................................................................ M a c h in is t s ......................................................................... 1.4 1.0 1.7 1.5 1.2 0.8 1.3 2.4 1.7 0.9 0.7 1.0 1.5 2.6 1.8 2.3 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.6 1.3 2.1 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.2 2.3 1.8 1.4 0.7 1.8 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.0 1.1 1.0 2.0 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.0 0.8 1.1 2.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 2.1 1.9 1.4 1.9 1.4 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.8 0.7 2.0 0.9 0.8 1.3 2.2 1.6 2.1 1.7 1.6 0.8 2.1 M iam i Om aha T ren to n Spokane P hoenix 1.8 0 .5 2.0 1.4 2.1 1.8 1.4 2.1 1.4 1.1 3.3 0.6 2.4 Mechanics and repairm en, a u t o m o b ile ...................... 1.0 1.3 1.0 1.7 0.8 0.7 1.1 2.1 Painters, con stru ction and m a in te n a n c e .................... 2.5 1.7 2.1 1.4 2.5 0.8 2.1 2.7 1.6 1.7 2.6 1.7 1.8 1.3 2.1 1.3 0.6 1.0 1.8 1.4 2.0 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.8 2.9 2.4 L a u n d ry and d ry cleaning o p e r a t iv e s ........................ M e a t c u t t e r s ....................................................................... Welders and flam e-cutters ............................................ Service workers, except private h o u s e h o ld .................... Waiters and w a itre s s e s ................................................... Laborers, except farm and m i n e ....................................... Table 27. 0 .9 1.1 2.2 1.9 1.2 2.4 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.1 2.0 1.9 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.9 2.2 1.2 2.3 2.3 1.6 2.2 1.2 2.0 2.1 1.4 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 0.6 Mechanics and repairm en, radio and T V ................. M illw rig h t s ......................................................................... Operatives and k i n d r e d ........................................................ A tten da n ts, auto service and p a r k in g ......................... Bus, tru ck and tractor drivers ..................................... 1.8 2.0 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.6 1.3 Plum bers and pipefitters ............................................... T o o l and diem akers and s e t t e r s .................................. 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.5 0.9 0.9 1.3 1.9 2.6 1.6 1.4 3.2 2.0 1.7 1.6 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.5 2.4 1.8 1.7 1.2 1.7 0.6 0.8 1.1 2.0 1.4 1.7 2.1 1.4 2.0 1.3 2.2 1.5 1.1 1.6 1.7 1.3 1.5 1.3 0.8 2.7 0.6 1.4 1.6 1.2 1.1 2.4 0.9 0.6 2.5 2.6 2.0 1.7 2.7 1.9 1.8 1.2 1.6 2.9 1.6 1.0 1.5 1.3 0.8 1.2 2.7 0.9 2.1 1.7 1.5 2.8 1.4 1.3 2.9 2.7 1.8 1.9 1.0 2.0 1.2 1.4 1.8 1.2 1.0 0.7 Annual death and retirement rates for women, selected metropolitan areas, by occupation 1950-60 Los AngelesWash., D .C . B altim ore Lon g Beach O ccu pa tion Professional, technical, and k i n d r e d ................................ D r a f t s m e n ........................... ............................................. 4 .5 4.1 Nurses, p ro fe s s io n a l........................................................ Tech n ician s, medical and dental ................................ Managers, officials and p roprietors, except f a r m .......... C lerical and k i n d r e d ............................................................. 4 .5 4 .3 4.6 4 .6 C a s h ie r s .............................................................................. 4 .3 O ffic e m achine o p e ra to rs ............................................... 4 .6 4.7 Secretaries, stenographers, and t y p i s t s ...................... S a le s w o rk e rs ......................................................................... Operatives and k in d r e d ........................................................ L a u n d ry and drycleaning operatives 4 .8 4 .0 4.4 4.1 4.6 4 .2 4 .2 4 .6 4 .2 4 .3 4 .8 4 .6 4 .0 3.5 4 .8 5.1 4.6 5.8 4 .6 4 .7 4 .3 4 .2 4 .8 5.0 5.0 4 .4 4 .6 4 .0 4 .4 3.9 4 .3 4 .4 4 .2 4 .2 Service workers, except private h o u s e h o ld .................... Practical nurses ................................................................ 4 .5 6.4 4 .3 Waiters and w a itre s s e s .................................................... 3.9 4 .0 4 .8 4 .0 Laborers, except farm and m i n e ....................................... 4 .8 4 .5 4 .7 4 .3 4 .0 4 .2 4.7 4.7 4 .4 ......................... 5.0 M iam i O m aha Tren to n S pokane Phoenix 4 .0 5.7 3.3 4 .6 5.6 4.9 5.2 6.6 4.8 5.2 4 .8 6.2 4.9 5.3 4.6 4 .6 4 .3 6.1 3.9 4.0 3.6 5.2 5.3 5.2 5.1 4.6 4 .5 4 .5 4 .5 5.2 5.1 4 .8 4 .3 5.4 4 .5 4 .8 3.7 4.1 6 .6 4 .5 4 .8 6.0 4.4 4.0 3.8 4 .9 4 .6 4 .5 4 .4 3.7 4.1 4.4 4 .2 4 .3 4.0 5.0 4 .4 4.1 4.1 4.9 4 .8 4 .3 5.6 4.5 4.4 4.0 4.6 5.2 31 Table 28. Comparison of estimated separations due to death and retirement, using national and State rates for Pennsylvania, by occupation, 1950-60 Estim ated death and retirem ent O ccu pa tion National E rro r using national rates rates Professional, tech n ical, and kindred ................................ Chem ists ............................................................................ Draftsm en State rates 109,949 745 115,263 812 -5 3 1 4 -5 -6 7 -4 8 5 -8 -2 7 N u m eric ......................................................................... 1,292 1,777 Engineers, e le c t r ic a l........................................................ Nurses, p r o f e s s io n a l........................................................ 97 5 1,170 -1 9 5 15,768 2,342 20 ,8 14 -50 46 -2 8 1 -2 9 7 1 Te ch n icia n s, m edical and d e n t a l.................................. Managers, o fficials and proprietors, except f a r m .......... C lerical and kindred ............................................................. C a s h ie r s .............................................................................. O ffic e m achine o p e r a t o r s .............................................. Secretaries, stenographers, and t y p i s t s ...................... S a le s w o rk e rs ............................................................................ Craftsm en, forem en , and k i n d r e d ..................................... Bakers ................................................................................. B rickm asons, stonem asons and tilesetters ............... C a r p e n t e r s ......................................................................... C o m positors and typesetters ....................................... Electrician s ....................................................................... L in e m e n .............................................................................. M achinists .......................................................................... M echanics and repairm en, a u t o m o b ile ...................... M echanics and repairm en, radio and T V ................. M illw r ig h t s .......................................................................... Painters, con stru ction and m a in te n a n c e .................... Plum bers and pipefitters ............................................... T o o l and diem akers and setters .................................. Operatives and k i n d r e d ........................................................ A tten da n ts, auto service and p a r k in g ........................ Bus, tru ck and tractor d r iv e r s ....................................... L a u n d ry and d ry cleaning o p e r a t iv e s ......................... M e a t c u t t e r s .......... ............................................................. Welders and flam e-cutters ............................................ Services w orkers, except private h o u s e h o ld .................... Practical nurses ................................................................ Waiters and waitresses ................................................... Laborers, except farm and m i n e ....................................... 32 82 ,1 8 8 2 ,62 3 85 ,1 5 9 Percent -1 7 -2 4 -1 1 -3 -4 199,953 9,01 0 6,867 208,67 2 6 3 ,8 50 87 ,6 9 7 122,434 2,17 0 6 7 ,0 0 6 8 6 ,6 3 0 12 8,46 3 2,327 2,314 -6 0 2 9 -2 0 2 -1 4 4 9 ,92 6 2,56 5 9 ,4 9 5 2,700 431 -1 3 5 3,88 0 4 ,6 0 7 1,624 -7 2 7 -2 9 5 -4 6 8 -4 2 4 -1 8 -5 -7 -5 6 -1 0 — — 5,305 4,1 2 3 9 ,8 4 2 5,936 560 1,133 5,517 4,581 1,848 22 5,91 7 1,951 2 2 9,88 8 1,589 13,159 1,589 14,056 8,314 2,497 3,937 2,125 1,329 9,37 4 5,512 504 1,133 8,091 2,379 3,634 113,522 5,407 19,063 4 9 ,3 4 5 8,80 9 7,00 2 -8 7 1 9 201 -1 3 5 2 -2 -3 1 5 6 1067 -5 1 -2 1 2 -4 5 8 -1 0 3 -39 71 — -8 9 7 -2 2 3 120,056 -1 1 8 -3 0 3 -6 5 3 4 5,021 18,533 54 ,3 7 7 386 530 -5 0 3 2 -5 -9 -6 5 -5 -1 6 -4 -1 0 -5 -2 — -6 -3 -5 -8 -5 8 3 -9 C h a p te r I I I . M e a s u rin g th e R e la tio n s h ip B e tw e e n C h an g es in In d u s tr ia l E m p lo y m e n t an d C h a n g e s in O c c u p a tio n a l E m p lo y m e n t Many methods may be used to project employment levels for specific occupations. One technique used by the BLS to prepare long-range projections follows a two-step procedure requiring two interrelated determi nants of occupational employment change. First, esti mates of total manpower requirements for a target year are prepared for a large number of industry sectors covering the entire economy. Second, occupational staffing patterns (i.e., the percent distribution of total employment in an industry by occupation) for each industry are projected to the target year. The occupa tional staffing patterns then are applied to their corre sponding industry projections in each industry among the various occupations. Total projections then are obtained by adding the individual occupational estimates in each industry to an all-industry total. In this process, both changes in industry employment and occupational structure play an important role in determining the direction and amount of changes in employment levels. However, until this time little empirical evidence has been available regarding the relative effect of the two factors. Generally, manpower analysts felt that over periods as short as a decade, the occupational structure of most industries remained relatively stable, and consequently, changes in industrial employment are the principal determinants of occupa tional shifts. The following section examines changes in occupa tional employment between 1950 and 1960 and at tempts to distinguish between the effect of the two factors by holding occupational structures constant. The test procedure applies a set of occupational patterns developed for 1950 and previously used in testing “ Method A” to employment levels for their correspond ing industries in the 1960 census and sums the resulting occupational employment data to all-industry totals. These estimated changes then were compared to the actual changes for each occupation. The differences represent that share of the total change caused by shifts in the occupational structure of industries between 1950 and 1960. Total test results are shown in table 29. The first and third columns show occupational employment as re ported in the Censuses for 1950 and 1960. Column 2 shows the test employment for each occupation result ing from the application of 1950 occupational structures to the 1960 industry employment estimates. Column 4 shows the estimated percent change in employment from industry growth and column 5 shows the actual change reported by the Census. If examined separately, the broad occupational groups indicate that industry employment changes were the principal cause of occupational employment shifts during the 1950-60 decade. For example, industry shifts alone seemed to account for 95 percent of employment change in the professional group, 96 percent in the sales group, and most of the change in the craftsmen (105 percent), and operative (117 percent) categories. How ever, the detailed occupations in each group indicate that the broad group averages are merely masking large offsetting discrepancies among the individual occupa tions. Table 30 shows the actual change from the decennial census (column 1) compared to the change from the test i.e., the change in employment due solely to industry growth (column 2). The proportion of total change in each occupation caused by industry employment change is shown in column 3. For example, between 1950 and 1960 only 23 percent of the change in office machine operators (or 38,000 out of 166,000) was explained by changes in industrial employment. Con versely, 77 percent or 128,000 resulted from increases in the relative use of workers within industries. The effect of industry employment changes on occupational employment varied significantly. Of the 29 specific occupations covered, one-half or 14 were more strongly affected by industry employment shifts, while shifts in occupational structure were dominant in the remaining 15. Furthermore, if industry shifts alone had been used as a predictor, estimates of employment changes for five occupations (bakers, carpenters, machin ists, automobile mechanics, and painters) would have 33 been used as a predictor, estimates of employment stenographers, etc.; brickmasons, stonemasons, etc., and millwrights) did industry shifts alone account for three fourths or more of 1950-60 employment changes. Although tests were limited, results appear to indicate that for 10 years or longer, shifts in industry employ ment and changes in occupational structure within 34 industries were about equal in determining employment changes. Though far from conclusive, the results do raise serious question about developing occupational employ ment projections by applying current staffing patterns to projections of industry employment. Such a procedure may be adequate for short periods of 1 to 3 years, but may result in significant error over longer periods. Table 29. Effect of industry growth on employment change, by occupation, 1950-60 O ccu pa tion 1950 E m p lo y m e n t, census1 1960 E m p lo y m e n t, estim ated fro m industry growth 1960 E m p lo y m e n t, census1 Increase fro m industry growth (In thousands) (Percent) 45 151 7,232 83 213 184 31 32 42 47 11 60 74 633 122 582 138 58 58 46 79 5,714 5,410 9,30 7 13 24 7 34 129 46 9 63 13 27 102 103 117 31 41 18 19 12 Professional, technical, and k i n d r e d ................................ C h e m is t s ........................................................................... D r a f t s m e n ......................................................................... 4,921 75 133 Engineers, e le c tric a l....................................................... Nurses, p ro fe s sio n a l........................................................ Tech n ician s, medical and dental ................................ 106 400 77 Managers, officials and proprietors, except farm . . . . Clerical and k i n d r e d ............................................................. Bank t e ll e r s ....................................................................... 5,036 6,95 4 64 8 ,61 0 104 C a s h ie rs .............................................................................. 231 142 1,596 3,907 7,821 180 2,090 4,6 0 9 8 ,7 8 5 4 ,6 3 9 8,741 120 166 129 184 108 186 O ffic e m achine operators ............................................ Secretaries, stenographers, and t y p is t s ...................... S a le sw o rk e rs............................................................................ Craftsm en, forem en, and k in d r e d ..................................... B a k e r s ................................................................................ Brickm asons, stonemasons and t ile s e tt e r s ............... Increase reported b y census 7,125 98 175 260 308 2,256 12 8 11 -1 0 12 Carpenters ....................................................................... 1 C o m positors and ty p e s e t te rs ....................................... E le c t r ic ia n s ....................................................................... Linem en ............................................................................ 919 1,012 819 10 -1 1 176 311 214 225 354 180 337 28 14 8 M a c h in is t s ......................................................................... M echanics and repairm en, a u t o m o b ile ...................... 515 654 275 499 68 2 12 22 M echanics and repairm en, radio and T V ................. M illw rights ....................................................................... Painters, con struction and m aintenance ................. 75 239 626 617 94 58 392 63 480 279 153 11,180 237 1,484 43 0 171 261 4 ,29 7 137 312 205 Plum bers and p ip e f it t e r s ............................................... T o o l and diem akers and s e t t e r s .................................. Operatives and k in d r e d ........................................................ Atten dan ts, auto service and p a r k in g ......................... Bus, truck and tractor drivers ..................................... L a u n d ry and d ry cleaning o p e ra tiv e s ......................... Meatcutters .................................................................... Welders and fla m e -c u t t e rs ............................................ Service workers, except private h o u s e h o ld .................... Practical n u r s e s ............................................................... Waiters and w a itre s se s ................................................... Laborers, except farm and m i n e ....................................... 66 8 3,43 6 103 64 371 304 12,018 318 182 11,898 352 1,632 41 4 1,739 387 178 310 5,241 181 361 5,445 206 826 3,108 177 733 3,55 4 ! -6 25 2 29 -3 4 37 9 22 10 -5 12 34 7 34 9 19 6 49 10 —4 4 -1 0 6 19 22 29 10 3 17 38 27 50 24 -1 0 1S O U R C E : 1 9 6 0 C e n s u s o f P o p u la tio n , V o lu m e P C ( 1 ) —1D , U .S . T a b le 2 0 2 . 35 Table 30. Employment changes, in industry by occupation, 1950-60 [In thousands] Occupation Professional, technical, and kindred ............................. C hem ists......................................................................... Draftsmen .................................................................... Engineers, e le c tr ic a l............................................. .. Nurses, professional Technicians, medical and d e n ta l................................ Managers, officials and proprietors, except f a r m ......... Clerical and kindred ......................................................... Bank tellers .................................................................. Cashiers ......................................................................... Office machine o p erato rs........................................... Secretaries, stenographers, and t y p is t s ..................... Salesw orkers...................................................................... Craftsmen, foremen, and kindred .................................. Bakers ........................................................................... Brickmasons, stonemasons and tilesetters................ Carpenters .................................................................... Compositors and typesetters .................................... Electricians.................................................................... L in e m e n ......................................................................... Machinists .................................................................... Mechanics and repairmen, a u to m o b ile ..................... Mechanics and repairmen, radio and T V .................. M illw rig h ts.................................................................... Painters, construction and m aintenance.................. Plumbers and pipefitters............................................. Tool and diemakers and setters ................................ Operatives and k in d r e d .................................................... Attendants, auto service and p a rk in g ....................... Bus, truck and tractor d riv e rs .................................... Laundry and drycleaning operatives......................... Meatcutters .................................................................. Welders and flam e-cutters........................................... Service workers, except private household .................. Practical nurses............................................................. Waiters and waitresses ................................................ Laborers, except farm and mine .................................... Actual change 1950-601 2,311 8 80 78 182 61 374 2,353 65 238 166 660 732 920 -1 2 20 -1 0 0 4 26 61 -1 6 28 28 6 -2 1 25 29 718 115 255 -4 3 10 100 1,148 69 158 -3 2 8 *1960 Census of Population, Volume (PC(1)-1Df U.S. Table 202. 3 Estimated employment change in wrong direction. ☆ U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1973 O - 512-381 (79) 36 Estimated change from industry employment 2,204 23 42 45 233 45 678 1,656 40 29 38 494 702 964 9 18 93 49 43 25 111 -3 7 19 5 88 33 52 838 81 148 -1 6 7 49 944 40 65 118 Industry generated change as percent of actual change 95 288 53 58 128 136 181 70 62 12 23 75 96 105 (2 ) 90 (2 ) 1,225 165 41 i 2> (2 ) 68 83 (2 ) 132 179 117 70 58 37 70 49 82 58 41 <> 2 B U R E A U O F LA B O R S TA TIS TIC S R E G IO N A L O FFIC E S Region I 1603 J F K Federal Building Government Center Boston, Mass. 02203 Phone: 223-6762 (Area Code 617) Region V 8 th Floor, 300 South Wacker Drive Chicago, III. 60606 Phone: 353-1880 (Area Code 312) Region II 1515 Broadway New Y ork, N .Y. 10036 Phone: 971-5405 (Area Code 212) Region VI 1100 Commerce St., Rm. 6B7 Dallas, Tex. 75202 Phone: 749-3516 (Area Code 214) Region IN P. O. Box 13309 Philadelphia, Pa. 19101 Phone: 597-1154 (Area Code 215) Region VII and VIII Federal Office Building 911 Walnut St., 15th Floor Kansas City, Mo. 64106 Phone: 374-2481 (Area Code 816) Region IV Suite 540 1371 Peachtree St. NE. Atlanta, Ga. 30309 Phone: 526-5418 (Area Code 404) Region IX and X 450 Golden Gate Ave. Box 36017 San Francisco, Calif. 94102 Phone: 556-4678 (Area Code 415) Regions VII and VIII are serviced by Kansas City. Regions IX and X are serviced by San Francisco. U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR T H IR D C L A S S M A I L B U R E A U O F L A B O R S TA TIS TIC S WASHINGTON, O.C. 20212 POSTAGE A N D FEES PAID O FFICIA L BUSINESS U .S . D E P A R T M E N T O F L A B O R P E N A L T Y F O R P R IV A T E U SE, $300 LAB-441
