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T O M O R R O W ’S M A N P O W National manpower projections and a guide to their use as a tool in developing State and area manpower projections V O L U M E I. DEVELOPING AREA MANPOWER PROJECTIONS B U LLETIN NO. IS O S February 1969 m j U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS E R N E E D S T O M O R R O W ’S M A N P O W E R N E E D S National manpower projections and a guide to their use as a tool in developing State and area manpower projections V O L U M E I. DEVELOPING AREA MANPOWER PROJECTIONS B U LLETIN NO. 1 6 0 6 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402 - Price $1 PREFACE This is the first of four volumes of Tomorrow's Manpower Needs , a publication devoted to the subject of national, State and area projections of manpower require ments. The full series of volumes is as follows: I Developing Area Manpower Proiections II National Trends and Outlook: Industry Employment and Occupational Structure III National Trends and Outlook: Occupational Employment IV The National Industry-Occupational Matrix and Other Manpower Data The objective of this publication is to help fill a gap in manpower information best described by President Johnson in his 1964 Manpower Report to Congress, “Projections of probable need in particular occupations are an essential guide for education, training, and other policies aimed at developing the right skills at the right time in the right place.” Projections of occupational needs at the State and area levels are needed in planning education and training programs. To help meet this need, Tomorrow's Manpower Needs presents up-to-date national manpower projections and provides a guide to their use in developing State and area manpower projections. This publication will be used in conjunction with a companion publication, Handbook for Projecting Employment by Occupation for States and Major Areas, prepared by the Bureau of Employment Security, Manpower Administration, U.S. Department of Labor, which will provide detailed operating instructions for the specific use of State employment security agencies. The assumptions underlying this publication are: (1) State and area manpower requirements estimates can be made more reliable if the analyses are made within the context of nationwide economic and technological developments. (2) Regional man power analysts familiar with local markets, the movement of industry into an area, and other factors affecting local industry and occupational employment are best able to estimate manpower requirements at the local level. (3) Selection of an appropriate projection technique or mix of techniques should take into account the financial resources available to the regional manpower analysts, the technical sophistication of their staff, the volume of projections required, the purpose of the projections as they affect the need for accuracy and detail, and the availability of computer assistance. The Bureau of Labor Statistics hopes that by providing a consistent and reasonably detailed national manpower framework and a guide to its use in making State and area manpower projections the well-informed local analyst will be aided in developing or improving local manpower projections. This report was prepared in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Office of Manpower and Employment Statistics. The study was performed by staff of the Bureau’s Division of Manpower and Occupational Outlook. It was planned and supervised by Sol Swerdloff and Russell B. Flanders. Richard E. Dempsey, David P. Lafayette, James W. Longley, Neal H. Rosenthal, and Joe L. Russell prepared or supervised preparation of major parts of the study. Other staff members contributing to the research and writing were Liguori O’Donnell, Melvin Fountain, Gerard Smith, Michael Crowley, Lloyd David, Penny Friedman, Edward Ghearing, William Hahn, Jerry Kursban, Annie Lefkowitz, Dorothy Orr, Judson Parker, Irving Phillips, Joseph Rooney, Norman Root, John Sprague, Howard Stambler, and Annie Asensio. The industry-occupational matrices for 1960 and 1975 were developed in the Division of Occupational Employment Statistics, under the direction of Harry Greenspan. The Office of Manpower Research of the Manpower Administration, U.S. Department of Labor, funded a large part of the development of the national industry-occupational matrix for 1975. The projections of the labor force were prepared by Sophia Cooper Travis, Chief, Division of Labor Force Studies and by Denis F. Johnston of that Division. The illustrative labor force projections by State presented in the appendix were reprinted from Special Labor Force Report No. 74, prepared by Denis F. Johnston and George F. Methee of that Division. Information on trends in output per man-hour was provided by the Office of Productivity, Technology, and Growth. Especially valuable was information on technological trends in major industries collected by that office under the direction of Edgar Weinberg. In the projections of employment by industry, extensive use was made of the work on estimates of industrial output and employment carried on by the Division of Economic Growth, as part of the Interagency Growth Study Project. The Bureau wishes to acknowledge the encouragement received from the Coordinating Committee on Manpower Research (CCMR) of the U.S. Department of Labor, which recommended the development of this report. We also appreciate the assistance of many representatives of other Federal agencies, State government agencies, private research organizations, trade associations, labor unions, and colleges and universities. CONTENTS Page Introduction ....................................................................................................... 1 Using national manpower data to develop State and Area manpower requirements projections....................................................... 5 How national manpower information was used to develop manpower projections for a State and areas..................................................... 18 Estimating Replacement Needs............................................................................ 47 Appraising the adequacy of supply in individual occupations.................................................................................................... 59 Appendixes: A. Estimated annual death and retirement rates for selected occupations, by sex, for employed workers in the United States............................................................. 64 B. Projections of the population and labor force for States and Regions, by age and color.......................................... 68 v INTRO DUC TIO N In a growing economy, the occupational composition of the work force, as well as the skills required in each occupation, change through the years. Present manpower needs, therefore, are an uncertain guide to future requirements. To plan education and training programs to meet tomorrow’s manpower needs, projections are needed of these changing manpower requirements. Such projections can help also in the vocational guidance of young people. To the extent that education, training, and vocational guidance accurately reflect the changing character of manpower needs, imbalances between manpower requirements and labor supply can be reduced, the productivity of the economy and the earning power of workers enhanced, and structural unemployment minimized. The manpower legislation passed in the early 1960’s emphasized the need for projections of occupational requirements and supply information. The Area Redevelop ment Act of 1961, the Manpower Development and Training Act of 1962, the Vocational Education Act of 1963, and the Higher Education Facilities Act of 1963 were concerned with the education and training needs of the Nation. Some of these acts specifically provided that occupational needs should be one of the factors on which education and training programs should be based. Other legislation, such as the Economic Opportunity Act of 1964, the Civil Rights Act of 1964, the Higher Education Act of 1965, and the Appalachian Regional Development Act of 1965, focused additional attention on the need for up-to-date information on future skill require ments. Tom orrow's M anpower N eeds is an attempt to provide a basis for developing manpower requirements information for States and areas through the use of national manpower information. The report presents the latest projections of national manpower requirements and provides a guide to their use in developing State and area manpower projections. The Bureau hopes that this information will be useful also in planning national programs of education and training, and in reviewing the extent to which State and local programs are meeting the Nation’s manpower needs. Specifically, the publication provides information on the impact of national developments on industry and occupational manpower requirements. It presents the results of research on the growth and changing composition of the population and the labor force, the relative growth of industries, the effect of automation and other technological changes and economic factors on industry employment, the occupational structure of industries, patterns of working life, and techniques for appraising the supply of workers having various skills. This information is provided to serve as a background and tool for the appraisal of manpower requirements at the State and local level. The bulletin reflects the continuing program of manpower research conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consequently, the projections of industry and occupational employment requirements supersede those published in previous Bureau reports. In addition, some of the projection data never have been published before by the Bureau in the detail presented in this report. It is anticipated that Tom orrow's M anpower N eeds will be revised every few years to reflect the latest information available as a result of the Bureau’s continuing program of manpower research. The Bureau of Employment Security currently is preparing a companion volume, H andbook fo r Projecting E m ploym en t by O ccupation fo r States and M ajor Areas, which will explain in additional detail how analysts in State employment security agencies can use various methods and sources of data, including the national manpower information presented in this report, to develop State and area manpower estimates and projections. 1 Chapter 1 of this volume is mainly concerned with techniques for using national employment trends and projections as a tool for developing estimates of State and area manpower needs. Methods are presented for relating local industry employment trends to national industry trends and projections to estimate future industry employment requirements at the local level. Similarly, methods are discussed for utilizing national occupational patterns of industries—current and projected—to develop current and fu ture occupational estimates at the State and area level. Also presented in this chapter is a description of how one State used projections of national industry employment and occupational patterns in developing manpower requirements for that State and for metropolitan areas within the State. This chapter also includes a review of several recent reports that describe techniques which have been used to make local manpower projections. Chapter 2 presents information and methods for estimating occupational replace ment needs resulting from deaths and retirements. . Chapter 3 discusses several approaches to appraising the adequacy of supply in individual occupations. The appendices to this volume present: projections to 1970 and 1980 of the population and labor force for States and regions, by age and color; and estimated national death and retirement rates for employed workers in 175 occupational classifications, by sex. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, as its resources permit, may be able to provide technical assistance, including clarification of the methods described in this volume, to organizations developing State and area manpower projections. Requests for such assistance should be made to the appropriate BLS Regional Office, located as follows: REGION I 1603-A Federal Building Government Center Boston, Mass. 02203 Phone: 223-6727 (Area code 617) New Hampshire Connecticut Rhode Island Maine Vermont Massachusetts REGION II 341 Ninth Avenue New York, N. Y. 10001 Phone: 971-5401 (Area code 212) Puerto Rico New Jersey Virgin Islands New York REGION III Penn Square Building, Room 406 1317 Filbert Street Philadelphia, Pa. 19107 Phone: 597-7796 (Area code 215) Pennsylvania Delaware Virginia District of Columbia West Virginia Maryland North Carolina 2 REGION IV 1371 Peachtree Street, N.E. Atlanta, Ga. 30309 Phone: 526-5416 (Area code 404) Mississippi Alabama South Carolina Florida Georgia Tennessee REGION V 219 South Dearborn Street Chicago, 111. 60604 Phone: 353-7226 (Area code 312) Minnesota Illinois Ohio Indiana Wisconsin Kentucky Michigan REGION VI 911 Walnut Street Kansas City, Mo. 64106 Phone: 374-2378 (Area code 816) Nebraska Colorado North Dakota Iowa South Dakota Kansas Utah Missouri Wyoming Montana REGION VII Mayflower Building 411 North Akard Street Dallas, Tex. 75201 Phone: 749-3641 (Area code 214) Arkansas Louisiana New Mexico Oklahoma Texas REGION VIII 450 Golden Gate Avenue Box 36017 San Francisco, California 94102 Phone: 556-3178 (Area code 415) Alaska Arizona California Hawaii Idaho Nevada Oregon Washington 3 TOMORROW’S MANPOWER NEEDS Volume I. USING N A T IO N A L MANPOWER D ATA TO DEVELOP STATE AND A R EA MANPOWER PROJECTIONS The purpose of this chapter is to suggest ways that the information in this report may be of assistance to analysts in developing State and area manpower projec tions. The chapter was prepared on the assumption that area manpower projections can be developed more adequately if the analyses are made within the context of nationwide economic, technological, and demo graphic developments. Volumes II and III of this report discuss changing markets, technological developments, and other factors expected to influence industry and occupational require ments through the mid-1970’s. This information can be helpful in evaluating the reasonableness of local industry and occupational projections. For example, projections made of a rapid increase in industry employment in an area may be questioned if, at the national level, the same industry is projected to grow at a significantly different rate, or even to decline. However, analysts may be able to justify the different rates of growth on the basis of knowledge about local markets, the movement of industry into an area, or other factors affecting the local industry’s employment. Similarly, a projected substan tial rise in employment in an occupation in an area may be questioned in the light of a projected decline in employment in the occupation nationally. Local ana lysts, however, also may be able to justify the difference in the occupational growth rates. For example, the industries that employ many workers in the occupation may be growing much more rapidly in the area than in the nation. Other factors that might account for the difference in the growth rate would be area and national variations in product mixes within industries and differ ences in the organization of production processes. The data on the national occupational distribution of individual industries in volume IV, appendix G are potentially a major source of information for developing local occupational employment estimates for a base year. The national occupational patterns can be used along with available local industry employment data to derive estimates of area industry-occupational patterns. Obviously, staffing patterns developed from local data alone would be superior to national patterns for this purpose. However, national patterns can be useful when local data are not available, incomplete, or too aggre gated. In some industries, such as restaurants, hotels, and banks, local occupational patterns may not differ signifi cantly from national patterns. Therefore, by using national patterns for such industries, States and areas can concentrate their resources on the development of occupational structures for key or unique industries. Most important, the national projections of industry and occupational employment can be used as tools to develop first approximations of future local industry and occupational employment. For example, in developing area projections of industry employment, local industry employment trends can be related to industry employ ment nationally, and trends in the area’s share of national employment determined. An extrapolation of these trends, together with the national industry projec tions, can provide a first approximation of an industry’s future employment in the area. First approximations of employment by industry should be refined by area analysts who are familiar with the local economy and who can make use of local data1 and other resources, particularly studies or information regarding the local economy developed by State govern ment agencies and private research groups. The informa tion obtained through contact with local employers might be especially helpful. Labor force projections frequently are used as a control in developing industry and occupational projec tions. Persons who develop State and area projections may find useful the projections of population and labor force by State and area, 1970 and 1980, shown in appendix C of this volume. The following paragraphs discuss some simple tech niques for relating national and area employment trends to develop first approximations of area employment by industry. Following this discussion are explanations of some techniques for utilizing national occupational staffing patterns (industry-occupational matrix) to de velop occupational projections for an area. The rest of the chapter relates an example of how national man power projections and other data were used by New York State to develop industry and occupational projec1 Two directories of statistical sources are published by the Federal Government. They contain information on sources of Federal statistics for local areas. These directories are as follows: Directory o f Federal Statistics for Local Areas: 1967, A Guide to Sources, U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Available from U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402-Price $2.25. Guide to Industrial Statistics , 1964 edition, U.S. Depart ment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Available from U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402-Price 40 cents. 5 tions. The last section also includes brief descriptions of several manpower studies that develop methods and project manpower characteristics. A number of techniques can be used to develop State and area industry employment projections. In accord ance with the assumptions underlying this publication, which were stated in full in the preface to this volume, the technique or mix of techniques selected by the Industry Projections regional manpower analysts should take into account The future employment level of individual industries factors such resources available for projections, is a primary determinant of occupational requirements, including the assizetheand technical sophistication of the because each industry has a unique occupational struc staff; the volume of projections the purpose of ture. To cite an elementary example, a sharp change in the projections as they affect therequired; need for accuracy and total employment in the construction industry will have industry detail; and the availability of computer a marked effect on the requirements for blue-collar ance. Several techniques are described in some assist detail workers—carpenters, electricians, laborers, etc. On the below; each one has a different degree of acceptability in other hand, if employment in the insurance industry terms of economic theory and each one requires varying changes sharply, requirements for workers in white- amounts of technical expertise. collar occupations will be affected significantly. Conse employment in an industry can be compared quently, estimating future employment in individual overLocal time with national employment in the same industries is a major step in developing occupational industry and a trend in the relationship can be deter employment requirements2. mined by computing for each year the local industry 2 For a number of occupations, however, employmentemployment as a percentage of the industry’s employ estimates can be developed directly. (See the national techniques ment nationally. Table 1 and Chart 1 illustrate this in appendix A to Volume IV for a discussion.) procedure using wage and salary employment in the Table 1. R a t i o o f P e n n s y l v a n i a S t a t e Employment t o N a t i o n a l Employment i n t h e F u r n i t u r e and F i x t u r e s I n d u s t r y 1 9 4 7 - 6 6 , and P r o j e c t e d 197 5 1/ Employment (In thousands) N ational | State Ye ar 1 9 4 7 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 9 4 8 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 9 4 9 ----------------- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------1 9 5 0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------1 9 5 1 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 9 5 2 - --------- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 9 5 3 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 9 5 4 - - -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 9 5 5 ----------------------------------------------- -------------- ------------------------------1 9 5 6 --------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------1 9 5 7 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 9 5 8 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 9 5 9 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------I 9 6 0 -------------------------- -------------------------------------------- -------------- -------1 9 6 1 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------1 9 6 2 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 9 6 3 ..................................................................................................... ......................... 1 9 6 4 --------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 9 6 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------ -------------- -----------1 9 6 6 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 336.0 346.0 317 oO 364.0 357.0 357.0 370.0 342.0 364.0 376.0 374.0 361.0 385.0 383.0 368.0 385.0 390.0 406.0 431.0 462.0 19 75 ( p r o j e c t e d ) -------------------------------------------------------------------- 510.0 1/ Wage and s a l a r y w o r k e r s o n l y 0 6 S ’ 1 i | ; 19.8 21.2 18.1 23.6 20.9 22.6 24.7 22.4 23.9 25.0 25.2 23.9 24.4 23.7 2 2 .6 R atio 5.9 6 .1 5.7 6.5 5.9 6.3 6.7 6.5 6 .6 6 .6 6.7 6 .6 6.3 o2 6 6 .1 22.6 23 o 6 24.7 26.2 27.8 6 .1 6 .1 6 .1 30.1 5.9 5.9 6 .0 furniture and fixtures industry (SIC 25) for the Nation and the State of Pennsylvania, for the years 1947 through 1966.3 Wage and salary employment in the industry in the State can be projected by extrapolating these relationships. The simplest way to extrapolate the trends is to compute (or draw) a line of average relationship, trend line, through the plotted historical data and extend it to the target year. Chart 1 shows the line of relationship extrapolated to 1975. The percent age derived for the target year, 5.9, then can be multiplied by the national projection of wage and salary employment in the furniture and fixtures industry (510,000),4 to derive a first approximation of wage and salary employment in the industry5 for the State of Pennsylvania in the target year (about 30,100). This technique may provide particularly good results for industries that sell their products in a nationwide market, as do most manufacturing and mining industries and some industries in other divisions. For example, if employment in basic steel is growing in the economy, steel plants across the country usually will be increasing employment. However, industries such as retail trade and automobile repair services that sell in local markets are generally more responsive to local trends in factors such as population and income and, therefore, may not provide as good results when the ratio method is used.6 In many industries area and national employment trends may not show a close relationship. This statement may be true for industries with different product mixes at the local and national level or because of locational shifts of industries caused by, for example, changes in the regional size of markets, the input-output relation ships between industries, and the relative prices of labor and materials in different regions. Regression techniques may be used to take account of growth factors originat ing within an area. Chart 2 illustrates the results of using multiple regression techniques to explain employment in an industry strongly influenced by regional demand. The form of the equation used was y = a + bx1+cx2, where y represents retail trade employment in Illinois, Xi represents population in Illinois, and x2 represents 3 National and State totals of employment by industry used in this and the following example are limited to wage and salary workers. Data are from Em ploym ent and Earnings Statistics for States and Areas, Bulletin 1370-4, issued July 1967, and E m ploym ent and Earnings Statistics for the United States, Bulletin 1312-5, issued October 1967, both published by the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 4 See volume IV, appendix B for projections to 1975 of wage and salary workers, by industry. 5 Techniques for developing total employment estimates from wage and salary estimates are discussed on p. of this volume. per capita change in personal income in Illinois. When regression techniques are used, the independent variables chosen must be ones for which projections will be available or can be made,i.e.,in the present illustration, a projection of retail trade employment in Illinois can be made from the regression equation only if both popula tion and per capita personal income have been projected. Regression techniques also may be used to take account of factors which influence employment in an industry locally, in addition to those which effect the industry nationally. For example, logarithmic or linear regression could be used with area industry employment as the dependent variable (y), and national industry employment (bxx) and time (cx2) as independent variables. In this approach national employment may represent overall nationwide demand for the products of the industry adjusted to allow for changes in produc tivity of labor, and time would account for the affect of all other factors directly influencing industry employ ment in a particular region. The technique used by New York State to project industry employment, as described below, was similar to this approach. Occupational Projections The following paragraphs describe how the national industry-occupational matrix can be used to develop initial occupational patterns and/or projections for a 6 A tendency exists also for area and national employment trends in industries that sell in local markets to move in a consistent and measurable relationship over time. The following are several reasons for this fact: (1) The area is a part of the Nation and area industry employment changes are reflected in the national industry employment levels; (2) the pattern of demand for the products of local industries is affected greatly by population and income in the region which, in turn, are influenced by basic social and economic trends which affect the whole Nation. Generally, if population and income are rising rapidly in the Nation, they also are rising rapidly in m ost sections of the country, and providing income to people for purchasing many of the products and services of local market industries; (3) a great amount of homogeneity exists across the U.S. The tastes and preferences of the people of Lincoln, Nebraska probably are very similar to those of the people of Boston, Massachusetts. Limited by technology and social customs, the population of both these cities own televisions, automobiles, and houses, and, therefore, require the services of TV repair and automobile repair firms, and plumbing and painting contractors. They purchase local newspapers, telephone friends, listen to local radio and TV, eat doughnuts and drink soda pop, support local printing and publishing, advertising, communications, and baking and beverage industries. Local businesses in all areas of the country require the services of auditing, banking, printing, and management consulting firms; and the technology and the structure of industries, among other factors, are similar throughout the country. As a result, price structures for the products of local market industries are similar. 7 Chart 1. FURNITURE AND FIXTURES INDUSTRY RATIO OF EMPLOYMENT^ STATE OF PENNSYLVANIA AND THE NATION, 1947-66, AND PROJECTED, 1975 Ratio 1947 1952 1957 1962 1966 1975 1/ Wage and salary workers only. State or area. The methods discussed by no means technology, changes in establishment size, the develop exhaust all the possible ways the national estimates may ment of new products, etc., are occurring constantly be used. The data are not suited for use by all States and within an industry. All these factors spur growth in the areas. relative requirements for some occupations, and at the The industry-occupational matrix is a set of occupa same time reduce the relative need for others. Basically, tional patterns of industries representing the entire occupational projections developed through the economy. (An occupational pattern for an industry is industry-occupational matrix system involve the use of the percent distribution of occupational employment in the two primary variables mentioned above—projections that industry.) The national matrix presented in this of employment, by industry, and projections of the occupational structure of each industry. When the report covers 116 industries and 162 occupations. occupational patterns of an industry in the target year Use o f the N ational Industry-O ccupational M atrix S ys are applied to projected industry employment estimates, an approximation of employment requirements for each tem .1 As has been indicated previously, the future employment level of individual industries is a primary 7 Vol. IV, appendix G of this report contains the 1960 and determinant of occupational requirements because of 1975 national industry-occupational matrices. Volume II dis each industry’s unique occupational structure. The cusses the factors that are expected to effect the occupational second factor influencing the trend in occupational distribution of individual industries. Vol. IV, appendix A employment is the changing occupational distribution of provides a description of the methods used to develop and employment within industries. The application of new project the national matrix. 8 Chart 2. EMPLOYMENT-RETAIL TRADE, STATE OF ILLINOIS, 1050-06, AND PROIECTED RANGE-1 9 7 5 Employment (Thousands) 1950 1955 1960 1966 1975 J / Wage and salary workers only. 2 / Employment range computed from the equation based upon high-low U.S. Bureau of Census Popula tion projections for Illinois ( 1 1 ,8 7 9 ,0 0 0 - 1 1 ,3 9 5 ,0 0 0 ) and high-low changes in Personal Income per capita for Illinois 1 9 6 2 -6 6 ($2 4 2 -$8 9 ). See U.S. Department of Commerce, Population Estimates, Series P-2 5 , No. 3 7 5 , October 3 , 1 9 6 7 , and Survey of Current Business, Vol. 4 7 , No. 8, Aug. 1 9 6 7 . 9 of the occupations in the matrix is derived. By following this procedure for each industry and summing the results, estimates of total requirements for each occupa tion can be obtained. The development of State and area occupational projections through the use of the national industryoccupational matrices is possible through a variety of methods. The following discussion is limited to two techniques which appear to offer promise.8 The first is a relatively simple system that is dependent upon both the base period national matrix (1960) and the projected national matrix (1975). The second technique is more complex; it requires the development of an area base period (1960) matrix. An area matrix then may be projected to the target year by applying the national trends in the occupational structure of each industry to the occupational structure of corresponding industries in the area base period matrix. The first step of any method in which national matrices are used is to make area industry employment estimates consistent with the total employment concept on which the national industry-occupational matrix is based. Private wage and salary employment, by industry, must be modified to include the other three classes of workers, i.e., self-employed, unpaid family workers, and government9 workers. Additional refinements also should be made to the wage and salary employment estimates. The first involves an adjustment to a oneperson one-job concept, which can be made by deduct ing the secondary jobs of multiple job holders. The second refinement accounts for persons employed but not at work (unpaid absences).10 The table presented in volume IV, appendix D illustrates the proportion, nationally, of private wage and salary workers to total employment for each industry. Private wage and salary workers make up the largest share of workers in most industries. As is shown, the importance of the “other workers” varies widely Q A third method, somewhat different than either of these, was followed by New York State and is described later in this chapter. 9 Government workers involved in activities unique to government are classified in the public administration industry. Government workers in agencies engaged in activities also carried on by private enterprises, such as education and medical services, construction, transportation, and manufacturing, are classified in their appropriate industry category, regardless of whether they are paid from private or public funds. 10 For information on multiple job holders and unpaid absences, see the Handbook o f Labor Statistics 1967, U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. For sale by the U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 20402, Price $2. 10 among the industries. Self-employed and unpaid family workers are especially important in industries such as agriculture; several service industries, including legal, engineering, and medical services; retail trade; and construction. Government workers make up a significant part of the work force in industries such as educational services, local public utilities, hospitals, shipbuilding, and construction. Two basic methods can be used by the area man power specialist to estimate the employment of these three classes of workers. The simplest technique would be to adopt the national relationships as shown in volume IV, appendix D for both 1960 and 1975. This technique might prove satisfactory for industries in which the workers other than wage and salary workers are relatively unimportant, but in others, particularly those where large numbers of government workers are concentrated, local analysts may want to develop their own estimates through the use of other data.11 Once area industry employment estimates on the total employment concept have been developed for both 1960 and 1975, first approximations of projected area occupational employment requirements may then be derived through one of the following methods. Area Projection M ethod A .12 This technique uses the national base period and projected matrices, and does not require a special area matrix. In general, estimates of area occupational requirements are made by applying 1960 and 1975 national industry-occupational patterns to their appropriate area industry employment estimates for each year; summing the resulting occupational employment to area totals; computing the 1960 to 1975 11 Industry employment is reported separately for each class of worker in 1950 U.S. Census of Population, Vol. II, Characteristics o f the Population, Table No. 83, and 1960 U.S. Census o f Population, Vol. I, Characteristics o f the Population, Table No. 129, U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Bureau of the Census. These data are available for all States and for Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas that have a population of over 250,000. The Population Census data should provide a basis for estimating employment levels for self-employed, unpaid family, and government workers, and for determining the trend in employment of these workers by industry. Additional information on employment of government workers also is available from the Census o f Government, 1966, Vol. Ill, Compendium o f Public Em ploym ent, and the annual reports on State Distribution o f Public Em ploym ent, published by the Bureau of the Census. Information on self-employed workers in selected industries is available from the 1963 and earlier editions of the Census of Busiijess and the Census of Manufacturers, also published by the Bureau of the Census. 12 See footnote 17 for a mathematical expression of Method A. change factors (percent change) for each occupation; and applying the change factors to separately estimated 1960 area occupational employment totals. The individ ual steps involved are: a. The 1960 national industry-occupational patterns are applied to their respective 1960 area industry em ploy m ent estim ates. The resulting occupational em ploym ent is then summed to area totals. This same procedure is follow ed using the 1975 national industry-occupational patterns and projected area industry em ploym ent esti mates. In table 2, this step is illustrated in column 3 (1960) and colum n (1975). In this exam ple, the two aggregates were 42,660 for 1960 and 57,921 for 1975. b. The 1960-75 change factor for the occupations then must be computed by dividing the 1975 em ploy m ent aggregate by the 1960 em ploym ent aggregate developed in step “a” . In table 2, the resulting change factor for automobile mechanics and repairmen was 57,921 or 1.358. 42,660 6 c. Base period (1960) area em ploym ent estimates must be made for each occupation for which projections are desired. The 1960 Census can supply the basic data needed for these estim ates (Other data sources should be investigated and utilized, if available For illustra tive purposes, the base period (1960) em ploym ent of automobile mechanics and repairmen in State Z was reported to be 43,800 workers. This number is som e what higher than the 1960 em ploym ent com puted in step “b ” . Such differences should be expected, since the patterns used in step “b” are national averages. The differences in the estimates developed in steps b. and c. point out that in one or more industries a higher proportion o f automobile mechanics and repairmen are em ployed in State Z than the national average. 1 3 .1 4 . ) 15 1 6 applying the change factor to the base period area em ploym ent determined in step “c” . By applying the change factor in table 2, the estimated 1975 em ploym ent for automobile mechanics and repairmen in State Z is calculated to be 59,480: The above procedure must be repeated for each occupation for which projections are desired. When this procedure is used, local projections are possible for each occupation and occupation group included in the nation al matrices. Area Projection M ethod B } 1 Method B integrates national industry-occupational structure trends with a specially developed area base period matrix. In order to use method B, an area base period industry-occupational matrix must be developed independently. Then, an area target year (1975) matrix is computed by applying the changes, 1960-75, projected for the industryoccupational structures at the national level to the corresponding industries in the area base period, 1960, matrix. Initial 1975 area occupational employment estimates then can be made by applying the 1975 area 1 7 A mathematical formula for m ethods A and B follows: M ethod A Method B 1 4 1 5 1 6 fjj(75) I (75) Lj(75) = i= l ------------------------------------------------Lj(60) n fij(60) Lj(60) i= l 4 2 1 3 6 n 2 d. The initial 1975 em ploym ent estimate o f autom o bile mechanics and repairmen then may be computed by 1960 Census o f Population, Vol. I, Characteristics o f the Population, Parts 1-50, tables 74, 84, and 121, U.S. Department o f Commerce, Bureau o f the Census. The U.S. Census o f Population is the major source o f detailed occupational em ploym ent statistics. Users o f these data should be aware o f their limitations, such as general undercount, possible response errors, classification problems, etc. For a more thorough evaluation o f the Census occupational em ploym ent data see O ccupational E m ploym en t Statistics, Sources and Data, BLS Report 305, or Evaluation and Research Program o f the U.S. Census o f Population and H ousing 1960: The E m ployer R ecord Check, Series ER 60, No. . U.S. Department o f Commerce, Bureau o f the Census. See, for exam ple, Occupational E m ploym en t Statistics, Sources and D ata, U.S. Department o f Labor, Bureau o f Labor Statistics, BLS Report 305. The reported 43,800 workers in 1960 may have come from such sources as the Census o f Population 1960 or an Area Skill Survey for that year. 1975 Em ploym ent o f Automobile Mechanics and Repairmen in State Z = 59,480 Occupational Trend Factor (1.358) x Base Period Occupation Em ploym ent (43,800) 1 .3 5 8 x 4 3 ,8 0 0 where Lj(75) = n 2 i= l L if(7 5) . Li(75) fy(75) Lij*(75) = fij(60) . Ljj*(60) Ly (year) is local em ploym ent by industry i and occupation j in the given year. Lj (year) is total local em ploym ent in industry i in the given year. fjj (year) is national fraction o f occupation j in industry i in the given year. Li* (year) is local fraction o f occupation j in industry i in given year. Lj (year) is total local em ploym ent in occupation j. 11 T a b le 2. M ethod A - - D e v e lo p m e n t o f A r e a Em ploym ent T re n d F a c t o r f o r A u to m o b ile M e c h a n ic s and R ep a irm en in S t a t e Z U s in g N a t i o n a l M a t r ic e s 1960 S t a t e Z to ta l in d u s t r y em ploym ent In d u s t r y (1 ) M o to r v e h i c l e and e q u ip m en t m a n u fa c t u r in g ------------------------------L o c a l and in t e r u r b a n t r a n s i t , e x c e p t t a x i s --------------------------------T r u c k in g -------------------------------------------M o to r v e h i c l e and eq u ip m e n t ( w h o l e s a l e ) ----------------------------------A u t o m o b ile and a c c e s s o r y d e a l e r s ( r e t a i l ) ---------------------------------------Gas s t a t i o n s ------------------------ -----------A u to m o b ile r e p a i r s e r v i c e s ----------A l l o t h e r (1 0 9 ) i n d u s t r i e s ----------T o ta l IV 2/ 1960 n a t i o n a l r a t i o JV o f a u to m o b ile m ech a n ics t o to ta l em ploym ent (p e r c e n t) (2 ) Column 1 X Column 2 1975 e s t im a t e d S ta te Z t o t a l in d u s t r y em ploym en t (4 ) (3 ) 1975 n a t i o n a l r a t i o IV o f a u t o m o b ile m ec h a n ic s o f to ta l em ploym en t (p e r c e n t ) (5 ) Column 4 X Column 5 (6 ) 3 7 7 ,2 0 0 3 .7 7 1 4 ,2 2 0 4 0 8 ,0 0 0 3 .0 7 1 2 ,5 2 6 8 ,5 0 0 3 5 ,9 0 0 6 .9 6 3 .3 7 592 8,000 1,210 4 5 ,0 0 0 5 .2 9 4 .1 5 1,868 6,000 1 .7 2 103 10,000 1 .7 4 174 3 5 ,2 0 0 2 8 ,3 0 0 2 0 ,4 0 0 3 ,1 7 9 ,5 0 0 27 .3 1 8 .8 3 5 5 .4 7 (2 ) 9 ,6 1 3 2 ,4 9 9 11,3 1 6 2/ 3 ,1 0 7 5 4 ,0 0 0 4 4 ,0 0 0 3 7 ,0 0 0 4 ,1 7 4 ,0 0 0 2 9 .6 4 12 .4 9 4 7 .8 5 (2 ) 1 6 ,0 0 6 5 ,4 9 6 1 7 ,7 0 5 2 / 3 ,7 2 3 116 i n d u s t r i e s ------------- 423 4 2 ,6 6 0 A v a i l a b l e in Volum e I V , a p p e n d ix G. Each o f th e 109 in d u s t r y e s t im a t e s w e re com puted s e p a r a t e l y . 5 7 ,921 They a r e occupational-industry patterns to projected area indus try employment and aggregating the results to area occupational totals. The individual steps involved are as follows: a. An area occupational-industry matrix for the base period must be developed. (Occupation-industry profiles, for example, are available for all areas that have over 250,000 population, from the 1960 Census o f Popula tion Table 3, column 4 illustrates a State pattern for a single industry (construction) derived from the 1960 Census. b. The 1960-75 occupation change factors must be com puted for each cell in the national matrices by dividing each 1975 occupational ratio by its correspond ing 1960 occupational ratio (1975 National Matrix Cell). (1960 National Matrix Cell). In table 3, colum n 3 shows this step for each occupation in the construction industry. . ) 1 8 In this instance, the resulting trend factor for civil engineers is 2.39 (1975) , . . . 1.86 (I9 6 0 )’ 1-284‘ Appendixes I and J o f volume IV provide the national occupational change factors discussed above. Appendix I 0 1 1960-75 a r e a ch a n ge f a c t o r f o r a u to m o b ile m ech a n ics ( t o t a l colum n 6) f ( t o t a l c o 1umn 3 ) (7 ) com bined h e r e b e c a u s e o f space 1 .3 5 8 lim ita tio n s . includes the factors directly matching the industry and occupational data published in the decennial census, which is available to States and areas. Appendix J provides change factors for a more d eta iled set o f industries, so States and areas may select change factors m ost appropriate to their needs. For exam ple, in appen dix I, the “other nondurable goods” sector includes petroleum refining, rubber products and leather products industries. If an area’s em ploym ent is largely concentrated in petroleum refining, the area analysts may wish to select the change factors from appendix J representing petro leum refining rather than the more aggregated category o f “other nondurable goods.” c. The 1975 area matrix is computed by applying the derived national occupation change factors to the corre sponding cell in the area base period (1960) matrix. Table 3, colum n 5, illustrates this step as follow s for civil engineers: National trend factor x 1960 area ratio = 1975 area ratio 1.284 x 2.15% = 2.76% This procedure is repeated for all occupations in an industry and the resulting occupational ratios summed to industry totals and forced, on a prorated basis, to percent. d. In order to forecast State Z’s total requirements for an occupation, steps b and c must be com pleted for each industry and the resulting occupational ratios for the projected year for each industry applied to the separately projected area industry em ploym ent estim ates. (See Table 3, colum n . In this illustration, the em ploym ent require ments in the construction industry in State Z were projected to be 275,000 in 1975.) 1 0 0 18 1960 Census o f Population, vol. I, Characteristics o f the P opulation. table N o. 125, U.S. Department o f Commerce, Bureau o f the Census a special tabulation providing further industry and occupational detail has been obtained from the U.S. Bureau o f the Census by some States for a fee. See also O ccupational E m ploym en t Statistics, Sources and Data, U.S. Department o f Labor, Bureau o f Labor Statistics, BLS Report 305, for other sources o f occupational data. 12 6 The resulting occupational estimate for each industry can then be aggregated to obtain the area’s total em ploym ent requirements for the occupation in the target year. Occupational projections developed through the use of relatively mechanical systems such as those discussed in the preceding paragraphs, should be viewed only as first approximations. They do, however, provide the local manpower analyst a base upon which to begin his evaluation. Method A seems to offer the best balance between the systems input requirements and the quality and quantity of projections produced. Its relative sim plicity and adaptability to smaller areas makes it especially attractive. Method B is a more complex approach. The development of the special area matrix required by this technique could prove to be a difficult and resource consuming task. Furthermore, the projec tions might prove less desirable, if data limitations forced the creation of an area matrix with considerably less industry detail than that available at the national level. The occupational structures of detailed industries are sometimes significantly different than that of the industry group of which they are a part. On the other hand, an area matrix with relatively detailed industry base, such as that which may be obtained from a special Census tabulation, would have many advantages. For example, it would provide the area analyst a tool to develop current occupational employment estimates by utilizing the base period occupational structure, on the assumption that occupational patterns do not change significantly in the short run, or by adjusting the base period structure on the basis of new data. The use of the national matrices also offers the prospect of preparing a range of occupational projec tions based on differing assumptions of an area’s future economic conditions by developing alternative projec tions of industry employment or by modifying the changes expected in the occupational structure of an area’s key industries. Such flexibility may prove espe cially valuable in States and areas where the industrial structure is changing rapidly and where future levels of industry employment depend greatly on factors such as defense expenditures, which are difficult to predict. The growth in employment requirements for each occupation determined through the methods discussed above or similar methods are but a first step in estimating the overall occupational requirements in the projected period. To the growth estimates must be added replacement needs expected as a result of deaths, retirements, and transfers of experienced workers to other occupations. Several methods for estimating such openings are discussed in the following chapter. Test o f M ethod A . A test of occupational projection method A was made to provide a basis for evaluating its accuracy. A less complex method (A1) also was tested to determine whether more accurate projections were attained by “localization” of the national matrix (steps c and d, page ) in method A. Test method A1 was based on the assumption that an area’s industry-occupational patterns, in addition to its trends (method A), are the same as national industry-occupational patterns in the base and projected years. The test of the technique was limited, because it was performed for one State and focused on the accuracy of method A only. It assumed that industry employment projections for Ohio made in 1950 for 1960 were perfect. It further assumed that projections of national industry-occupational patterns made in 1950 for 1960 also were perfect. In reality, error would be involved in each of these steps, in addition to the error associated with the collection of the basic data. Data on 40 occupations for the nation and the State of Ohio in 1950 and 1960 were used in the test. National industry-occupational patterns for 1950 and I96019 were applied to detailed industry employment totals for Ohio in 1950 and I96020, respectively. Preliminary 1950 and 1960 estimates of occupational employment in Ohio were derived by summing employ ment in each of the 40 occupations across all industries. Final projections (method A) were made by deriving a coefficient of occupational change for each occupation between 1950 and 1960, and applying it to the respective occupational totals for 1950, as shown in the Census of Population, 1960, for Ohio. For method A1, the preliminary projections based solely on national industry-occupational patterns and trends were consid ered the final projections. Table 4 presents the results of the test of projection method A, shown as a percent of actual occupational employment in Ohio in 1960. Of the 31 detailed occupations in the test of method A, 18 were projected between 105 and 95 percent of actual employment in 1960, and 27 between 110 and 90 percent. Differences in industry product mix in Ohio and the nation were important determinants of those projections that were significantly in error. For example, the projection of Derived from data in the U.S. Census o f Popula tion: 1960, O ccupation by Industry, Final Report PC(92)-7C. U.S. Department o f Commerce, Bureau o f the Census 1963. 1 9 20 U.S. Census o f Population: 1960, D etailed Character istics, Ohio, Final R epo rt PC(1)-37D. U.S. Department o f Commerce, Bureau o f the Census. 13 T ab le 3 . M ethod B - - P r o j e c t in g Em ploym ent R eq u irem en ts in th e C o n str u c tio n I n d u s tr y , 1 / by O c c u p a tio n , in S t a t e Z, U sin g N a tio n a l M a trix T rends O ccu p a tio n T o t a l, a l l o c c u p a t io n s ---------------- P r o f e s s i o n a l , t e c h n i c a l, and k in d r e d w o r k e r s-------------------------------------A c c o u n ta n ts and a u d it o r s -------------------A r c h i t e c t s ...... .................. - .................................. ■C h em ists and n a tu r a l s c i e n t i s t s -----D e s ig n e r s and d r a fts m e n ---------------------E n g in e e r s , c i v i l -----------------------------------E n g in e e r s , e l e c t r i c a l -------------------------E n g in e e r s , i n d u s t r i a l - ................................. E n g in e e r s , m e c h a n ic a l-------------------------E n g in e e r s , o th e r t e c h n i c a l ....................L aw yers and ju d g e s --------------------------------P e r s o n n e l and la b o r r a la t io n s w o r k e r s---------------------------------------------- - S u r v e y o r s ------------------------------------------------ -O th er t e c h n ic ia n s , e x c e p t m ed ica l and d e n t a l - ---------------------------------------- O th er p r o f e s s i o n a l, t e c h n i c a l, and k in d r e d w o r k e r s-------------------------------- -M an agers, o f f i c i a l s , and p r o p r ie to r s C l e r i c a l and k in d r e d w o r k e r s................... B o o k k e ep e rs---------------------------------------- -----O f f ic e m ach in e o p e r a t o r s --------------------S te n o g r a p h e r s , t y p i s t s and s e c r e t a r i e s ---------------------------------------- -T elep h o n e o p e r a t o r s ------------------------------S h ip p in g and r e c e iv in g c le r k s -------- -O th er c l e r i c a l w o r k e r s------------------------S a le s w o r k e r s-------------------------------------------- -C r a ftsm e n , fo r e m en , and k in d re d w o r k e r s------------------------------------------------------B la c k s m ith s , fo r g e m e n , and hammermen-------------------------------------------------------- — B o ile r m a k e r s --------------------------------------------- N a tio n a l m a tr ic e s 2 / C o n str u c tio n C o n s tr u c tio n in d u s tr y p a t in d u s tr y p a t te r n , 1960 t e r n , 1975 (p e r c e n t) (p e rc en t) (2 ) (1 ) 1 0 0 .0 0 1 0 0 .0 0 5 .5 5 .2 7 .0 3 .0 4 .7 3 7 .2 0 .3 8 .0 3 .0 4 1 9 6 0 -7 5 n a t io n a l ch an ge 3 / fa c to r s (3 ) C o n str u c tio n 4 / in d u s tr y p a t te r n , S ta te Z 1960 (p e r c e n t ) (4 ) 1 0 0 .0 0 5 .9 7 .3 4 .0 5 D e r iv e d 1975 1 P r o j e c te d 1975 em ploym ent in c o n s t r u c t io n in d u s tr y p a t c o n s tr u c tio n te r n , S ta te Z in d u str y (p e r c e n t ) S ta te Z (6 ) (5 ) 5 /1 0 0 .0 0 6 / 7 .5 7 .4 8 .0 5 7 /2 7 5 ,0 0 0 7 / 2 0 ,8 1 8 1 ,3 2 0 138 55 2 ,5 5 8 7 ,5 9 0 303 . 83 275 440 83 .0 9 .0 3 1 .4 0 9 1 .0 3 4 .9 9 2 1 .1 6 5 1 .2 8 4 1 .0 7 0 1 .0 8 4 1 .0 4 6 1 .1 3 9 .9 1 8 .03 .3 3 .0 6 .5 2 2 .3 6 2 1 .5 7 1 .2 3 .3 6 .0 2 55 990 1 .2 7 1 .7 0 1 .3 4 2 .9 0 1 .2 1 3 ,3 2 8 .71 1 1 .5 9 4 .3 1 1 .1 9 .0 4 .9 1 1 1 .2 9 6 .0 5 1 .5 2 .0 8 1 .2 8 2 .9 7 4 1 .2 7 4 1 .8 8 0 1 .2 6 1 .7 9 .0 4 1 .0 2 1 1 .8 6 .0 6 .0 2 .0 9 .0 8 .0 3 .0 4 .0 2 .8 6 2 .3 9 .0 7 .0 2 .1 0 .0 1 1 .7 6 .3 0 2 .6 1 .3 7 5 1 .8 0 4 8 .9 6 .0 3 .1C .0 4 .1 3 1 .4 2 1 .4 3 9 1 .4 8 3 1 .2 2 4 .8 0 2 .1 5 .9 3 2 .7 6 .1 0 .1 1 .0 3 .0 3 .1 0 .1 0 .1 6 .0 3 .1 4 .0 3 .0 1 1 .3 1 1 .0 2 1 0 .3 0 4 .2 3 1 .0 4 .0 3 6 1 .3 6 .0 6 .0 4 1 .7 0 .4 0 5 5 .4 1 1 .3 5 6 1 .3 4 8 .0 2 .0 2 .0 4 .1 4 / 1 0 .0 2 5 .9 1 1 .3 2 .0 6 2 .5 2 .4 9 .0 2 5 ,3 0 8 165 55 6 ,9 3 0 1 ,3 4 8 / 5 2 .5 1 7 /1 4 4 ,4 0 3 .0 5 .1 9 138 523 1 .9 3 .0 6 6 3 ,6 0 3 '27,555 7 / 1 6 ,2 5 3 3 ,6 3 0 165 T a b le 3 . M ethod B - - P r o j e c t in g Em ploym ent R eq u irem en ts in th e C o n str u c tio n I n d u s tr y , 1 / by O c c u p a tio n , in S ta te Z, U sin g N a tio n a l M a trix T r e n d s - -C o n tin u ed O ccu p a tio n C a b in etm a k ers and p a t te r n m ak ers----C a r p e n te r s -----------------------------------------------C ranem en, d e rr ic k m e n , and h o istm e n E l e c t r i c i a n s ........................................................... F orem en, n o t e ls e w h e r e c l a s s i f i e d - M a c h in is ts and jo b s e t t e r s ...................... M ech an ics and r ep a irm en ---------------------M illw r ig h t s .............................................................. P lu m b ers and p i p e f i t t e r s -------------------T in s m ith s , c o p p e r s m ith s , and sh e e t m e ta l w o r k e r s---------------------- --------------O th er c r a fts m e n ................. .................................. O p e r a tiv e s and k in d re d w o r k e rs-----------D r iv e r s (t r u c k , e t c . ) and d e liv e r y men-------------------------------------------- - ............... W eld er s-------------------------------------------- --------O th er o p e r a t iv e s -----------------------------------S e r v ic e w o r k e r s -............- ------------- --------------Charwom en, j a n i t o r s , and p o r t e r s - *G u ard s, w atchm en, and d o o r k e e p e r s -O ther s e r v i c e w o r k e r s -- .............................. L a b o r e r s , e x c e p t fa r m -.............. ....................- N a tio n a l m a tr ic e s 2 / C o n s tr u c tio n C o n s tr u c tio n in d u s tr y p a t- - in d u s tr y p a t t e r n , 1960 t e r n , 1975 (p ercen t) (p e rc en t) (2 ) (1 ) .1 6 1 6 .1 4 .4 1 3 .3 8 2 .2 3 .0 7 2 .0 3 .1 2 4 .6 1 .1 4 1 1 .8 9 .5 5 3 .6 1 3 .1 2 .0 6 2 .6 6 .1 9 4 .6 7 .8 4 1 .0 4 2 1 .6 8 2 0 .8 6 3 .5 7 .7 6 3 .5 3 .5 0 .1 7 .1 6 .1 7 1 8 .0 9 4 .6 0 7 .8 6 1 1 .7 8 1 .2 0 5 .9 8 .5 2 .2 7 .0 9 .1 6 1 3 .8 3 1 9 6 0 -7 5 n a t io n a l ch an ge 3 / fa c to r s (3 ) C o n s tr u c tio n 4 / ’ in d u s tr y p a t te r n , S ta te Z 1960 (p e r c e n t ) (4 ) .9 2 4 .7 3 7 1 .3 4 7 1 .0 7 0 1 .4 0 1 .8 0 0 1 .3 0 7 1 .5 6 8 1 .0 1 4 .0 7 1 6 .4 0 .4 7 4 .3 5 2 .0 9 .0 9 2 .3 9 D e r iv e d 1975 c o n s t r u c t io n in d u s tr y p a t te r n , S ta te Z (p e r c e n t ) (5 ) P r o j e c te d 1975 em ploym ent in c o n s t r u c t io n in d u s tr y S ta te Z (6 ) 5 .3 4 .0 6 1 2 .0 7 .6 3 4 .6 4 2 .9 3 .0 7 3 .1 2 .1 9 5 .4 0 165 3 3 ,1 9 3 1 ,7 3 3 1 2 ,7 6 0 8 ,0 5 8 193 8 ,5 8 0 523 1 4 ,8 5 0 1 .2 4 1 .9 6 2 1 .1 7 2 2 .6 1 7 .0 4 1 .4 5 2 1 .7 1 6 / 1 0 .6 7 3 ,9 8 8 5 9 ,7 0 3 7 / 2 9 ,3 4 3 1 .2 9 0 1 .5 8 0 1 .6 9 5 2 .9 3 .5 5 3 .5 6 .6 1 3 .7 8 .8 7 1 0 ,3 9 5 2 ,3 9 3 1 6 ,5 5 5 7 / 1 ,6 5 0 468 165 1 ,0 1 8 3 3 ,6 3 3 1 .5 3 5 .5 4 0 .941 .7 6 4 .1 2 .1 1 .1 1 .3 9 1 6 .0 4 6 / 6 .0 2 .6 0 .1 7 .0 6 .3 7 1 2 .2 3 1 / C o n s tr u c tio n in d u s tr y in c lu d e s wage and s a l a r y , s e l f em p lo y ed , and u n p a id fa m ily w ork ers em ployed in th e c o n tr a c t c o n s tr u c t io n in d u s tr y (SIC 1 5 -1 7 ) . I t a ls o in c lu d e s w ork ers em p loyed in govern m en t a g e n c ie s en gag ed in c o n s t r u c t io n a c t i v i t i e s su ch as highw ay m a in te n a n c e , lan d r e c la m a tio n , and w a ter w o rk s. I t d o e s n o t in c lu d e w ork ers en gag ed in f o r c e a c c o u n t c o n s tr u c tio n o r m a in ten a n ce in m a n u fa c tu r in g , p u b lic u t i l i t i e s , and o th e r i n d u s t r i e s . 2 / A v a ila b le in A ppendix B o f t h i s r e p o r t. O c c u p a tio n s n o t shown s e p a r a t e ly a r e com bined w ith a p p r o p r ia te r e s id u a l c a t e g o r ie s . 3 / S ee A p p en d ix I o r J fo r n a t io n a l in d u s tr y -o c c u p a tio n a l ch an ge f a c t o r s . 4 / D e r iv e d from 1960 C ensus o f P o p u la tio n , C h a r a c t e r i s t ic s o f th e P o p u la t io n , t a b le 1 2 5 , I n d u str y Group o f th e Em ployed by O c c u p a tio n , U .S . D epartm ent o f Commerce, B ureau o f th e C e n su s. 5 / A fte r f i r s t c o m p u ta tio n , th e d e r iv e d 1975 p a t te r n summed to 1 0 0 .1 2 p e r c e n t . F in a l p a t te r n was th e n com puted by f o r c in g to 1 0 0 .0 0 p e r c e n t on a p r o r a te d b a s i s . 6/ Sum o f in d iv id u a l o c c u p a tio n s in th e m ajor o c c u p a tio n g r o u p . 7 / I n d iv id u a l ite m s may n o t add to t o t a l b e c a u se o f r o u n d in g . electrical engineers was almost one/quarter higher than the actual level. The reason may be that industries in Ohio tend to have less research and development activity, which is concentrated regionally, than their counterparts nationally. Moreover, Ohio’s plants classi fied in industries that employ high proportions of electrical engineers may tend to produce household appliances rather than technologically complex equip ment such as defense and space communications sys tems. Either one of these situations could have accounted for the significant error in the projection of electrical engineers. In the test of method A, better results were obtained for occupational groups than for detailed occupations. The fact that substitution of workers in detailed occupations is probably more prevalent than substitu tion between occupational groups was responsible for this result. Another conclusion from the tests was that the assumption underlying method A, that the trend in occupational usage in particular industries at the area level follows industry-occupational trends nationally, appears to be substantially correct. The test also pointed out that the level of industry usage of occupations can differ significantly between an area and the nation. This T a b le 4 0 P r o j e c t i o n s o f S e l e c t e d O c c u p a tio n s U s in g M ethod A , S t a t e o f O h io , a s P e r c e n t o f A c tu a l E m ploym ent in th e P r o j e c t e d Y ear O c c u p a tio n P r o f e s s i o n a l , t e c h n i c a l , and k in d r e d ------------------------------ ---------- -----------C h e m is ts ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------D r a fts m e n ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------E n g in e e r s , e l e c t r i c a l --------------------------------------------------------------------------------N u r s e s , p r o f e s s i o n a l ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------T e c h n ic ia n s , m e d ic a l and d e n t a l -----------------------------------------------------------M a n a g e r s, o f f i c i a l s , and p r o p r i e t o r s -----------------------------------------------------C l e r i c a l and k in d r e d ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Bank t e l l e r s ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------C a s h i e r s ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------O f f i c e m a ch in e o p e r a t o r s --------------------------------------------------------------------------S e c r e t a r i e s , s t e n o g r a p h e r s , and t y p i s t s ------------------------------------------S a l e s w o r k e r s -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------C r a fts m e n , fo r e m e n , and k in d r e d ---------------------------------------------------------------B a n k e r s --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------B r ic k m a s o n s , s to n e m a s o n s , and t i l e s e t t e r s ------------------------------------C a r p e n t e r s --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------C o m p o s ito r s and t y p e s e t t e r s -------------------------------------------------------------------E l e c t r i c i a n s ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------L in e m e n --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------M a c h in i s t s -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------A u to m o b ile m e c h a n ic s and r e p a ir m e n -----------------------------------------------------O f f i c e m a ch in e m e c h a n ic s and r e p a ir m e n --------------------------------------------R a d io , and t e l e v i s i o n m e c h a n ic s and r e p a ir m e n -----------------------------M i l l w r i g h t s -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------P a i n t e r s , c o n s t r u c t i o n and m a in t e n a n c e --------------------------------------------P lu m b er s and p i p e f i t t e r s --------------------------------------------------------------------------T o o l- a n d - d ie m a k ers and d i e s e t t e r s --------------------------------------------------O p e r a t iv e s and k in d r e d ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------A t t e n d a n t s , a u t o m o b ile s e r v i c e and p a r k in g ------------------------------------B u s, tr u c k and t r a c t o r d r i v e r s , t a x i d r i v e r s , and c h a u f f e u r s D e li v e r y and r o u te m e n --------------------------------------------------------------------------------L aundry and d ry c le a n in g o p e r a t i v e s --------------------------------------------------M eat c u t t e r s ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------W eld er s and fla m e c u t t e r s ------------------------------------------------------------------------S e r v i c e w o r k e r s , e x c e p t p r i v a t e h o u s e h o ld ------------------------------------------P r a c t i c a l n u r s e s -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------W a ite r s and w a i t r e s s e s ------------------------------------------------------------------------------L a b o r e r s , e x c e p t farm and m in e -----------------------------------------------------------------F a r m e r s, farm m a n a g e r s----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 P ercent 102 94 106 123 102 99 101 10 0 92 104 111 93 99 102 109 93 98 113 101 105 105 103 100 99 112 101 101 91 103 107 109 10 4 97 96 111 101 97 101 91 101 fact accounted for the general overall superiority of method A, which takes into account local industryoccupational levels, than method A1. Method A worked somewhat better for occupations concentrated in a small number of industries than for occupations scattered throughout many industries. For example, the results of the method for practical nurses (97 percent), waiters and waitresses (101 percent), professional nurses (102 percent), and radio and TV repairmen (99 percent), were particularly good, and less so for secretaries (93 percent), draftsmen (106 percent), office machine operators (111 percent), and machinists (105 percent). However, the opposite was true in several instances; for example, the result for bank tellers should have been very satisfactory (92 percent), and for electricians, rather poor (101 percent). On the basis of the limited test, several tentative conclusions can be drawn. First, method A provides generally reliable results. Second, knowledge of local industry is indispensable to improving the quality of the results; and third, the greatest industry detail available should be used in following method A. 17 HOW N A TIO N A L MANPOWER IN FO R M A TIO N WAS USED TO DEVELOP MANPOWER PROJECTIONS FOR A STATE AND AREAS The New York State Department of Labor's Manpower Projections for the State and Its Areas: A Preliminary Report on Method2 1 The Division of Research and Statistics of the New York State Department of Labor is developing projec tions of the number of jobs in 1970 and 1975, by occupation and industry, for New York State and its eleven major industrial areas. In making these projec tions the Department is utilizing--as far as they are applicable~the techniques and the over-all framework of the corresponding national projections of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, described in this bulletin. The Division began by making estimates for 1960 and 1965 in the same detail as was desired for the 1970 and 1975 projections. The five main steps are listed below. Further on, each is described, first in connection with the 1960 benchmark figures and then in their applica tion to later years. 1. Labor force: To establish the number in the labor force, by age and sex. 2. Nonfarm jobs: To establish the number of nonfarm wage and salary jobs, by industry. 3. Total jobs: To establish the total number of jobs, by industry, by adding to number 2: farm jobs, selfemployed and unpaid family workers and domestics, as well as a distribution of government jobs, to conform to Census of Population industry concepts. 4. Reconciliation: To reconcile the conceptual differ ences between number 1 with number 3. 5. Matrix: To construct a matrix of the total number of jobs-occupation by industry division-in which the indus try totals conform to those of number 3. for the State and its areas had to come trom the Census of Population. However, these data could not be used without a considerable amount of adjustment. They had to be integrated with data from other sources in order to obtain a set of data which was comparable to that used by BLS in its projection process. The adjustments made in the State series for 1960 are described in some detail below. Similar adjustments were made for the areas. The civilian labor force, b y age and sex The basic 1960 Census of Population civilian labor force data for New York State, by age and sex, contained in table 5, were first adjusted to a Current Population Survey basis and then were further adjusted from the March-April 1960 Census period to a 1960 annual average basis. (See tables 6 and 7.) These adjustments were made by applying national relation ships. N onfarm wage and salary jobs, b y industry A detailed set of figures by industry was essential, since it is the framework necessary for utilizing the BLS industry-occupation matrix. Nonfarm job data for New York State for 1960 from the BLS-State program had been published for manufacturing in selected 2-digit, 3-digit, and 4-digit detail and for nonmanufacturing in The resulting estimates for 1960 and 1965 and 1-digit and 2-digit detail. For some nonmanufacturing projections for 1970 and 1975 will form an integrated industries, particularly in services, greater detail than set. For each of the four years there is a reconciliation of had been published was necessary. Most of the data was labor-force estimates by age and sex with the conceptu obtained from unpublished estimates of the Office of Research and Statistics of the New York State Division ally different estimates of jobs by industry. of Employment. In the few cases where such figures were not available, estimates were made by interpolating Benchmark Data for 1960 between the 1959 and the 1962 data of County Business Before projections could be made, a framework of Patterns. The resulting number of nonfarm wage and past data had to be obtained. The benchmark year salary jobs is shown in the second column of table 8, selected was 1960, since many of the needed basic data which is limited to 2-digit industry detail. 21 Prepared by Abraham J. Berman, Chief Consulting Statistician of the New York State Department of Labor, assisted by Sheldon Dorfman, Associate Economist, Division of Research and Statistics. Their final, detailed statement is available in separate technical supplement to Manpower Direc tions in N ew York State, 1965-75, New York State Department of Labor, 1968. 18 Total jobs, b y industry The BLS national matrix includes self-employed and unpaid family workers, farm employees, and domestic employees, in addition to nonfarm employment. Column 3 in table 8 shows New York State estimates for T a b le 5 . Age and s e x C e n s u s P o p u l a t i o n and L a b or F o r c e , New York S t a t e , I 9 6 0 1 R e sid e n t p o p u la tio n (In thousands) R e sid e n t In stitu armed tio n a l forces p o p u la tio n M a le , 14 y e a r s and o v e r -------------------1 4 - 1 9 y e a r s ------------2 0 - 2 4 y e a r s ------------2 5 - 3 4 y e a r s .................. 3 5 - 4 4 y e a r s ------------4 5 - 5 4 y e a r s ------------5 5 - 6 4 y e a r s ------------65 y e a r s and o v e r - 5 ,8 8 2 .2 6 5 3 .4 4 3 3 .7 1 ,0 5 5 .2 1 ,1 2 6 .6 1 ,0 3 6 .1 8 4 2 .8 7 3 4 .5 1 2 1 .5 1 1 .4 8 .7 1 8 .0 1 6 .5 1 7 .1 1 8 .2 3 1 .6 F e m a le , 14 y e a r s and o v e r ........................... 1 4 - 1 9 y e a r s ------------2 0 - 2 4 y e a r s ------------2 5 - 3 4 y e a r s ------------3 5 - 4 4 y e a r s ------------4 5 - 5 4 y e a r s ------------5 5 - 6 4 y e a r s ------------65 y e a r s and o v e r - 6 , 5 0 6 o5 6 7 7 .4 5 0 0 .1 1 ,1 3 2 .3 1 ,2 3 4 .3 1 ,1 2 4 .3 9 1 3 .3 9 2 4 .7 9 8 .4 5 .8 2 .5 4 0 .1 5 .0 1 4 .0 1 1 .7 7 .3 1 .8 0 .3 -t 6 .6 9 .2 1 1 .8 1 3 .8 4 8 .7 i.o 0 .2 0 .3 0 .2 0 .1 0 .1 0 .1 C iv ilia n n o n in stitu tio n a l p o p u la tio n 5 ,7 2 1 637 411 1 ,0 2 6 1 ,1 0 3 1 ,0 1 7 824 703 6 ,4 0 7 671 49 7 1 ,1 2 6 1 ,2 2 5 1 ,1 1 2 899 876 S o u r c e : U . S . B u re a u o f t h e C e n s u s , U .S . C e n s u s o f P o p u l a t i o n : t a b l e s 107 and 1 1 5 . these elements and column 1 shows the total jobs figures that result from adding in these estimates. Our first step toward making these estimates utilized the ratio of self-employed and unpaid family workers to private wage and salary workers, by industry, from table 122 of the 1960 Census of Population. The ratios were applied to the average 1960 nonfarm wage and salary worker data and the resulting figures were totaled. Since the total did not agree with the total that had been obtained as part of the work force estimates of the Division of Employment, which used the U.S. Bureau of Employment Security methods —adjustment of these figures was necessary. The adjustments were made in trade and service, large industry segments in which most self-employed persons are found. Data from the 1958 Census of Business seem to indicate somewhat higher ratios of self-employed among the workers of these industries than were indicated by the Census of Popula tion ratios, and this fact was utilized in making the adjustments. The estimates of the Division of Employ ment, made as part of their work force series, of the number of farm and domestic workers, also were added to obtain the total number of jobs. C iv ilia n la b o r force C iv ilia n lab or fo r c e p a rticip a tio n ra tes 4 ,5 5 5 203 350 986 1 ,0 7 0 972 723 251 7 9 .6 3 1 .9 8 5 .2 9 6 .1 9 7 .0 9 5 .6 8 7 .7 3 5 .7 2 ,4 0 3 178 413 534 559 347 3 7 .5 2 6 .5 5 2 .7 3 6 .7 4 3 .6 5 0 .3 3 8 .6 110 1 2 .6 262 1 9 6 0 , V o l . I , P a r t 3 4 , New Y o r k , The Census of Population concept of government employment by function or industry is utilized in the occupation-industry matrix; accordingly, the number of government workers in schools, hospitals, construction work, etc., had to be estimated and assigned to their respective industries. This concept is in contrast to the concept used in the nonagricultural wage and salarywork force series, in which all work for government agencies is considered a separate industry division, classified by employer: Federal, State, and local. The basic source used to classify by function the State and local government work done in New York State was the Census of Governments for 1957 and 1962. Its classifica tion proved to be far more satisfactory than that of the Census of Population, where government workers appear in industries in which no governmental jobs exist in New York State. For Federal employment, the basic source used was the insured employment record of the Division of Employment, where data are obtainable for individual Federal agencies classified by industry. Table 8 indicates the number of government jobs, by industry. Added to the other elements in the table, these data complete the estimate of total jobs, by industry, in 1960. 19 T a b le 6 . A d j u s t m e n t o f t h e New York S t a t e C e n s u s C i v i l i a n L abor F o r c e P a r t i c i p a t i o n R a t e s t o an A nn u a l B a s i s C o m p a r a b le w i t h t h e U . S . C u r r e n t P o p u l a t i o n S u r v e y (C P S ), 19 6 0 Age and s e x New York C ensus c iv ilia n la b o r fo r c e p a r ticip a tio n rates (p ercen t) 1/ (1) R a t i o o f U .S . p a r ticip a tio n r a t e s A p r il CPS -r C e n s u s (2) New York p a r t i c i p a t i o n j R a t i o o f U .S . p a r ticip a tio n rates rates a d j u s t e d by, a n n u al a v er U .S . CPSa g e 4 M archC ensus r a t io A p r il av erage (p ercen t) (4) (3) A nnual New York S t a t e c iv ilia n la b o r fo r c e p a r ticip a tio n r a t e , 1 9 60 (p ercen t) (5) M ale 1 4 - 1 9 y e a r s ----------2 0 - 2 4 y e a r s ----------2 5 - 3 4 y e a r s ----------3 5 - 4 4 y e a r s ----------4 5 - 5 4 y e a r s ----------5 5 - 6 4 y e a r s ----------65 y e a r s and o v e r ---------------------- 1 .0 0 8 1 .0 1 7 1 .0 1 7 3 4 .8 8 6 .7 9 7 .2 97 o8 97 o 2 8 9 .2 1 .0 0 3 1 o005 3 9 .1 8 7 .8 97 o 7 9 7 .9 9 7 .5 8 9 .6 35 o7 1 .0 6 7 3 8 .1 .9 9 7 3 8 .0 2 6 .5 52o 7 3 6 .7 43 o 6 5 0 .3 3 8 .6 1 .0 7 4 1 o020 1 .0 3 0 1 .0 5 5 1 .0 5 5 28 o5 5 3 .8 3 7 .1 4 4 .9 5 3 .1 4 0 .7 1 .0 2 0 1 .0 0 0 1 .0 1 4 1 .0 1 9 3 3 .1 5 5 .1 3 7 .8 4 4 .9 5 3 .8 4 1 .5 1 2 .6 1 .0 0 9 1 2 .7 1 .0 1 9 1 2 .9 3 1 .9 8 5 .2 9 6 .1 97 o0 95 o 6 8 7 .7 1 .0 9 2 1 .0 1 8 1 .0 1 1 1 .1 2 3 1 .0 1 3 1 o005 1 .0 0 1 F em a le 1 4 - 1 9 y e a r s ----------2 0 - 2 4 y e a r s ----------2 5 - 3 4 y e a r s ----------3 5 - 4 4 y e a r s ----------4 5 - 5 4 y e a r s ----------5 5 - 6 4 y e a r s ----------65 y e a r s and o v e r ---------------------- 1 .0 1 0 1 .1 6 2 1 .0 2 4 1 / From t a b l e 5 . 2 ! D e r i v e d fr o m t h e G ordon C o m m itte e r e p o r t ( M e a s u r in g E m ploym ent and U n e m p lo y m e n t, p p . 3 8 1 3 8 2 ) by t a k i n g t h e r a t i o o f t h e A p r i l CPS t o C e n s u s . 3 / Column ( 1 ) m u l t i p l i e d by colu m n ( 2 ) . 4 / R a t i o o f a n n u a l a v e r a g e l a b o r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s t o t h e a v e r a g e o f t h e M archA p r i l l a b o r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s , ta k e n from t h e M o n th ly R e p o r t on t h e L a b or F o r c e . 5 / Column ( 3 ) m u l t i p l i e d by colu m n ( 4 ) . R econciliation betw een job s and labor force By adding an estimate for unemployment to the total number of jobs (item 3 above), a figure for total work force as defined by the Bureau of Employment Security was obtained. The concept of total work force for a State or an area differs from the concept of resident labor force in the following respects: a. Persons on more than one payroll are counted only once in the labor force, but are counted in the work force figures for each job held. b. Persons who live in one State or area and commute to work to a different State or area are not counted where they reside in the labor force statistics, but where they work in the work force statistics. c. Persons who have a job during the survey week, but 20 are not at work and not paid, are considered employed in labor force counts, but not in the work force statistics. Table 9 indicates the size of the elements of difference between the civilian labor force count, less the unemployed, and the total job count in New York State for 1960. When the comparison first was made, a relatively small statistical discrepancy was found. It was eliminated by increasing slightly the labor force partici pation rates presented in column 5 of table 6. This adjustment accounts for the difference between these rates and those finally used in table 7. The N ew York S tate industry-occupation m atrix One of the major determinants of differences in occupation structure among areas is difference in indus- T a b le 7 . New York S t a t e C i v i l i a n P o p u l a t i o n ,and Labor F o r c e , 1960 ( I n th o u s a n d s ) New York S t a t e c i v i l i a n nonin stitu tio n a l p o p u la t io n (1 ) Annual New York S ta te c iv ilia n la b o r f o r c e p a r tic ip a tio n rates (2) New York S t a t e c iv ilia n la b o r f o r c e (3) T o t a l , 14 y e a r s and o v e r ----------------- 1 2 ,1 6 1 5 9 .8 7 ,2 7 3 M ale, 14 y e a r s and o v e r ----------------------------1 4 -1 9 y e a r s ------------------------------------------------2 0 -2 4 y e a r s ................................................................. 2 5 -3 4 y e a r s - - ....................- ...................................3 5 - 4 4 y e a r s ------------------------------------------------4 5 - 5 4 y e a r s ------------------------------------------------5 5 - 6 4 y e a r s - .............................................................. 65 y e a r s and o v e r ------------------------------------- 5 ,7 3 7 648 415 8 2 .0 3 9 .2 1 ,1 0 5 1 ,0 1 7 825 706 9 7 .9 9 8 .2 9 7 .4 8 9 .7 3 8 .1 4 ,7 0 4 254 365 F e m a le , 14 y e a r s and o v e r ------------------------1 4 -1 9 y e a r s -----------------------------------------------2 0 -2 4 y e a r s .................- ................- ....................... 2 5 -3 4 y e a r s .................................................................. 3 5 - 4 4 y e a r s ...............- ....................... ........................ 4 5 - 5 4 y e a r s ................. .......... ............................. ........ 5 5 - 6 4 y e a r s ................. ..............................................65 y e a r s and o v e r ------------------------------------- 6 ,4 2 4 680 500 1 ,1 2 3 1 ,2 2 5 1 ,1 1 3 901 882 4 0 .0 3 3 .8 5 4 .9 3 7 .8 4 5 .0 5 3 .8 4 1 .6 1 2 .9 Age and s e x 1 ,0 2 1 8 8 .0 1 ,0 0 0 1 ,0 8 5 991 740 269 2 ,5 6 9 230 275 425 551 599 375 114 1. The A p r il 1960 c i v i l i a n p o p u la t io n was moved to J u ly by l i n e a r i n t e r p o l a t i o n betw een th e A p r il 1960 C ensus P o p u l a t i o n and th e J u ly 1965 p o p u l a t i o n e s t i m a t e s p r e p a r e d by th e New York S t a t e O f f i c e o f P la n n in g C o o r d i n a t i o n . 2 . B ased on t a b l e 6 column 5 , a d j u s t e d t o e l i m i n a t e th e s t a t i s t i c a l d is c r e p a n c y in t a b l e 9 (S e e t e x t . ) 3 . Column ( 1 ) m u l t i p l i e d by column ( 2 ) . try structure. If industry structure were the only determinant, application of the national industry occupation matrix to a State or area’s industry structure would be possible and a reasonably good set of occupation estimates could be obtained. Testing this possibility by using data on occupation by industry in the 1960 Census of Population showed that, although industry differences do account for a great deal of the difference in occupation structure, other factors are important.22 The presence of central administrative offices, research laboratories, and other supporting activities of a given industry in one State and their absence in another will give the two States different job structures in the same industry. Another important factor is the state of technological advance at which different firms in different areas within the same industry operate. Consequently, an independent matrix for New York State and its areas was obtained by industry division and detailed occupation for the benchSee Berman, Abraham J., “Problems of Manpower Projections in New York State,” Temple University Bulletin, June 1966, p. 27. mark year 1960. Constructing it involved the following steps: Step 1. Table 10 presents by industry division and occupation group the New York State employment data of table 125 of the 1960 Census of Population. Such data are available for each State and for each major labor market area in the country. Step 2. One deficiency in these raw data is that about 6 percent of employed persons are unclassified as to industry or occupation or both. Within each industry division, the “not reported” element had to be allocated into occupations. Wide variations in the “not reported” element appeared among the age, sex, color, and area breakdowns (New York Metropolitan Area vs. Re mainder of State). For example, “not reported” among white males was 4 percent, among nonwhite males, 12 percent. The “not reported” element, therefore, was prorated separately within each age-sex-color group. Data in Census of Population table 123 were drawn on for occupation distributions and table 128 for industry distributions. Table 11 shows the resulting industry totals (column 1) and occupation totals (row 1). The cross tabulation of table 9 was adjusted to the new 21 T a b le 8 . T o t a l J o b s i n New York S t a t e by C l a s s o f W ork er, 1 9 6 0 Indu stry (In thousands) --------------------------------<1 S e l f - e m p l o y e d N o n a g r ic u lu n p a id f a m i l y t u r a l w age w orkers. T o tal job s and s a l a r y a g ricu iu u ra l e m p lo y m en t JJ e m p lo y m en t and d o m e s t i c s G overn m en t T o t a l e m p lo y m e n t-------------------------------- 7 ,2 6 5 .0 5 ,3 4 4 .2 1 ,0 8 3 .0 8 3 7 .8 M a n u f a c t u r i n g ------------------------------------------------D u r a b le g o o d s m a n u f a c t u r i n g ---------------Lumber arid wood p r o d u c t s -----------------F u r n i t u r e and f i x t u r e s ---------------------S t o n e , c l a y and g l a s s p r o d u c t s ----P r im a r y m e t a l i n d u s t r i e s -----------------F a b r ic a te d m etal p ro d u cts (in clu d in g ordnance, except f i r e c o n t r o l e q u i p m e n t ) ---------------M a c h in e r y , e x c e p t e l e c t r i c a l --------E l e c t r i c a l m a c h i n e r y , e q u ip m e n t and s u p p l i e s --------------------------------------T r a n s p o r t a t i o n e q u ip m e n t -----------------In stru m en ts (in c lu d in g f i r e con t r o l e q u i p m e n t ) -------------------------------M i s c e l l a n e o u s m a n u f a c t u r i n g ----------N o n d u r a b le g o o d s --------------------------------------F ood and k i n d r e d p r o d u c t s ---------------T o b a c c o m a n u f a c t u r e s -------------------------T e x t i l e m i l l p r o d u c t s -----------------------A p p a r e l and o t h e r f i n i s h e d p r o d u c t s ----------------------------------------------P a p e r and a l l i e d p r o d u c t s ---------------P r i n t i n g , p u b l i s h i n g and a l l i e d i n d u s t r i e s ------------------------------------------C h e m i c a ls and a l l i e d p r o d u c t s ------P e t r o l e u m r e f i n i n g and r e l a t e d i n d u s t r i e s ..............................- ......................... R ubber and m i s c e l l a n e o u s p l a s t i c s p r o d u c t s ---------------------------L e a t h e r and l e a t h e r p r o d u c t s --------A g r i c u l t u r e , f o r e s t r y and f i s h e r i e s - A g r i c u l t u r e -------------------------------------------------F o r e s t r y -------------------------------------------------------F i s h e r i e s -----------------------------------------------------M i n i n g ---------------------------------------------------------------M e ta l m i n i n g ----------------------------------------------O i l and g a s e x t r a c t i o n -------------------------N o n m e t a l l i e m in in g and q u a r r y i n g ----C o n s t r u c t i o n ---------------------------------------------------T r a n s p o r t a t i o n , c o m m u n ic a tio n and p u b l i c u t i l i t i e s --------------------------------------R a i l r o a d s -----------------------------------------------------A i r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n ----------------------------------L o c a l and i n t e r u r b a n p a s s e n g e r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n --------------------------------------M otor f r e i g h t t r a n s p o r t a t i o n and w a r e h o u s i n g --------------------------------------------- 1 ,9 5 1 .2 9 4 8 .8 18 o 8 3 7 .4 5 0 .0 7 7 .5 1 ,8 7 8 .8 9 1 1 .2 1 6 .4 3 5 .5 4 8 .6 7 7 .1 5 7 .0 2 2 .2 1 5 .4 1 5 .4 1 0 5 .4 1 0 0 .0 15 9 .1 3 .0 2 .9 2 .4 -- 1 6 5 .7 9 8 .6 0 .5 1 .2 __ 1 3 .0 1 1 6 .8 9 3 .4 9 6 7 .6 1 5 6 .7 4 .8 3 .7 3 4 .8 6 .3 2 .8 0 .1 S e e f o o t n o t e a t end o f t a b l e . 22 1 6 2 .0 1 6 6 .9 1 1 2 .1 1 2 1 .6 9 7 .1 1 ,0 0 2 .4 1 6 3 .0 2 .9 6 5 .4 6 3 .3 2 .4 1 .9 1 .4 0 .4 2 .1 3 3 3 .4 7 0 .2 3 1 8 .9 6 9 .4 1 4 .5 1 8 0 .2 9 0 .3 1 7 2 .9 8 9 .2 7 .3 1 2 .9 1 2 .8 0 .1 2 0 .2 0 .6 2 0 .8 6 3 .3 1 7 4 .7 1 7 3 .0 0 .5 1 .2 6 1 .4 9 .5 9 .2 0 .3 9 .1 3 .0 1 .4 4 .7 9 .5 3 .1 1 .5 4 .9 3 7 9 .0 2 6 1 .8 5 8 4 .3 6 5 .5 3 9 .6 ------ 0 .8 1 .1 1 .9 1 6 3 .5 162. 1 0 .5 0 .9 0 .4 0 .1 0 .1 0 .2 -1 .7 1 .7 ---- 7 1 .4 4 5 .8 4 8 2 .2 6 5 .3 3 7 .0 2 5 .3 7 6 .8 0 .2 0 .1 2 .5 8 7 .2 4 4 .1 7 .8 3 5 .3 8 6 .8 7 5 .0 1 1 .8 -- T a b le 8. T otal Jobs in N ew Y o r k (In S tate by C la s s of W orker, 1 9 6 0 --C o n tin u e d thousands) S e lf-e m p lo y e d u n p aid N o n a g ricu lIndustry T otal jo b s tural and wage w orkers, sa la ry em p lo y m e n t t r a n s p o r t a t i o n --------------------------------- 7 3 .7 6 8 .4 0 .2 0 .2 W ater S erv ices in cid e n ta l to 1/ em p loy m en t d om estics 0 .3 2 3 .8 2 0 .6 3 .2 C o m m u n i c a t i o n --------------------------------------------------- 1 1 6 .0 1 1 5 .7 0 .3 gas and s a n ita ry ser9 1 .5 5 5 .9 1 .6 3 4 .0 t r a d e ----------------------- 1 ,5 4 0 .6 1 ,2 5 1 .1 2 8 6 .8 t r a d e ---------------------------------------------- 4 8 4 .2 4 1 9 .3 6 4 .9 2 .7 -- t r a d e ----------------------------------------------------- 1 ,0 5 6 .4 8 3 1 .8 2 2 1 .9 2 .7 v i c e s -----------------------------------------------------------------W h olesa le and W h olesa le R e ta il 5 .0 transpor- t a t i o n --------------------------------------------------------------E le ctric, G overnm ent a g ricu ltu ra l and P i p e l i n e s ------------------------------------------------------------- ' fa m il}' Lum ber, re ta il b u ild in g m a teria ls, farm e q u i p m e n t --------------------------------------------------- 4 1 .7 3 1 .9 9 .8 .. s t o r e s ------------- 1 6 6 .5 1 4 9 .4 1 5 .6 1 .5 s t o r e s --------------------------------------------------- 2 0 0 .4 1 4 5 .4 5 5 .0 -- G eneral Food m erch an d ise A u tom otive se rv ice A pparel d e a le r s and s t a t i o n s --------------------------------- 101 o7 7 8 .5 2 3 .2 .. a c c e s s o r i e s --------------------- 1 1 6 .2 9 9 .0 1 7 .2 -- and F u rn itu re, h om efu rn ish in gs and e q u i p m e n t --------------------------------------------------E atin g and d rin k in g M is ce lla n e o u s F in a n ce, ; g a s o lin e p l a c e s ------------- 3 7 .7 1 2 .6 __ 2 0 2 .1 4 9 .5 1 .2 8 7 .8 3 9 .0 -- esta te-- 5 3 1 .5 4 8 3 .2 3 7 .8 1 0 .5 a g e n c i e s ---------------- 0 .1 re ta il in su ra n ce 5 0 .3 2 5 2 .8 and s t o r e s ----------- real 1 2 6 .8 ' 1 3 7 .9 1 3 6 .8 1 .0 com p a n ies-- 6 3 .5 5 8 .7 4 .8 I n s u r a n c e ------------------------------------------------------------- 1 6 9 .3 1 6 2 .4 6 .4 R eal e s t a t e -------------------------------------------------------- 1 6 0 .8 125 o3 2 5 .6 9 .9 S e r v i c e s -------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 ,7 6 3 .6 9 6 8 .5 4 4 0 .8 3 5 4 .3 B an k in g and cre d it B rokers and in v e stm e n t H o te ls p l a c e s --------------------- 8 1 .7 7 2 .4 9 .2 0 .1 s e r v i c e s ----------------------------------------- 1 6 0 .9 1 0 2 .5 5 8 .4 -- 1 9 7 .6 1 7 0 .0 2 7 .6 -- 3 6 .0 2 6 .2 9 .8 __ 2 8 .3 1 5 .8 1 2 .5 -- and P ersonal lo d g in g M is ce lla n e o u s A u tom ob ile b u s in e ss rep a ir s e r v i c e s ------ se rv ice s and g a r a g e s ------------------------------------------------------------M is ce lla n e o u s M otion and M ed ica l Legal re p a ir p ictu re s m ent and s e r v i c e s ----------other re cre a tio n and other am use s e r v i c e s - ------ h ea lth se rv ice s- s e r v i c e s ------------------------------------------------ E d u ca tio n a l N on p rofit 0 .5 se rv ice s m em bersh ip and m u seu m s-- 7 2 .3 1 0 .4 2 .1 1 9 3 .4 6 2 .0 1 2 0 .1 5 0 .2 3 0 .2 2 0 .0 3 4 7 .2 1 0 8 .9 1 0 .2 2 2 8 .1 1 2 3 .1 1 1 5 .2 4 .0 3 .9 9 0 .4 6 1 .6 2 8 .8 o rg a n iza - t i o n s -----------------------------------------------------------------M is ce lla n e o u s 8 4 .8 3 7 5 .5 s e r v i c e s ---------------------------w o r k e r s --------------------- 1 8 7 .9 -- a d m i n i s t r a t i o n ------------------------------------ 3 3 0 .6 -- 1 8 7 .9 -- 3 3 0 .6 s e r v i c e ------------------------------------------------ 7 9 .8 -- -- 7 9 .8 f e d e r a l --------------------------------------------------- 6 2 .9 -- 6 2 .9 S t a t e ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 1 .4 L o c a l ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 4 6 .5 P riv a te P u b lic P ostal O ther 1/ h ou seh old E x clu d in g -- -- 4 1 .4 1 4 6 .5 govern m en t,, 23 marginal totals, omitting the “not reported” group, by a prorata process.23 The following tabulation presents a comparison for the “not reported” group, by industry division and by occupation group. The first column shows the result that would have been obtained, if the prorating had been made on the basis of the total distribution omitting the “not reported” group. The second column presents the result of prorating the “not reported” group in each age-sex-color-area cell separately and adding the results. The resulting distribution, shown in the tabulation below, reflects the differences in the proportion of “not reported” in each cell and indicates that higher propor tions of lower-skill workers should be used in adjusting for this group. Percent D istribution O f “ N ot R e p o rted ” By Industry And O ccupation Industry division and occupation group “Not reported ” prorated By age, Proportion color, sex ately and area All industries ........................................... Agriculture ....................................... M in in g .................................................. Manufacturing ................................ C onstruction....................................... Transportation and public utilities ....................................... Wholesale and retail trade . . . . Finance, insurance, and real e s ta te .............................................. Services and miscellaneous . . . . Public administration .................. All o c c u p a tio n s....................................... Professional, technical and kindred w ork ers......................... Managers, officials and proprietors 1 ................................ Clerical and kindred workers . . Sales w o r k e r s .................................... Craftsmen, foremen and kindred workers ....................................... Operatives ....................................... Service workers, including private household .................. Laborers, including farm . . . . 1 1 0 0 .0 1.9 0 .2 30.2 5.2 8.1 19.2 1 0 0 .0 1.5 0 .2 29.0 4.5 7.9 19.4 23.6 5.0 6.9 25.7 4.8 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 13.3 12.5 8.9 20.7 7.5 11.3 19.9 14.4 4. 8 6 .6 1 0 .6 19.3 7.8 13.2 19.3 12.1 4.5 Includes farmers and farm managers. Step 3. Table 12 shows the results of step 3, which was to shift the occupation distribution by industry division from its Census residence basis (table 12) to a total jobs basis (table 8). 2 3 For a short method of iterating a cross tabulation to marginal totals, see Dening, W. Edwards, Statistical Adjustm ent o f Data , 1964 edition, New York, Dover Publications, Inc., p. 121 ff. 24 Step 4. Within the table 11 framework of industry division and occupation group, detailed occupation estimates by industry division then were made. Table 125 of the 1960 Census of Population gives information on the industry distribution in New York State of some individual occupations. The detail needed for most individual occupations, however, is not given in that table. Most individual occupations are grouped into an all-other category within each occupation group. For these all-other categories, information on New York totals of individual occupations can be obtained from table 120 in the Census volume. Information for the country as a whole, given in Census volume PC 2 (7C), was utilized to prorate the individual occupations within the all-other group on an industry division basis. These estimates were totaled and prorated to agree with the industry division breakdown of the all-other group for the State. In this way, a set of detailed occupational statistics by industry division, using Census data, was obtained. These data then were adjusted to a total jobs basis by prorating the breakdown of occupations in each industry division to the totals by occupation group obtained in Step 3 and shown in table 12. The procedure can be illustrated by indicating how the number of jobs by detailed occupation was derived for one occupation group—professional, technical, and kindred workers; jobs by detailed occupation within the other occupation groups were derived in a similar manner. Census table 125 for New York State shows an industry breakdown for 19 specified professional occu pations for males and eight for females. The first step, then, was to fill in the data for those occupations in which data for one sex was missing. The national patterns in Census Report PC 2 (7C) were used. The following tabulation uses female lawyers as an example. Estimating The Number o f Female Lawyers by Industry Division In New York State in 1960 Industry division Total e m p lo y m e n t.................. Manufacturing .................. Contract construction . . Transportation and public utilities ......................... Wholesale and retail trade Finance, insurance, and real e s t a t e ..................... Services and miscellaneous Public administration . . . Not rep orted......................... United States NewYork Number Percent State 7,140 39 1 0 0 .0 10 1 0.5 1.4 40 61 383 4,768 1,728 0.9 5.4 66.9 24.3 20 0 .6 - 1,450 7 20 9 13 78 971 352 - Their national percent distribution by industry division, applied to the 1,450 employed female lawyers in New detailed occupation data were prorated to sum to total professional jobs by industry division, shown in table 12. For example, in manufacturing, in order to shift professional employment by detailed occupation from a Census basis to a total jobs basis, the Census figure for each occupation was multiplied by 0.981 (the ratio of the 166,700 jobs shown in table 12 to the 169,900 resident employed shown in table 11). A similar break down of jobs by detailed occupation and industry division was made for each of the other cells. Step 5. Deficiencies exist in Census information about occupations, which were obtained from one member of a household. Consequently, other data were used where available. The New York study utilized the State’s own study of technicians, scientists, and engi neers, as of 1962,25 and its study of the metal trades, as of 1957.26 New York State Education Department data on the number of teachers and on licensees in several professional occupations, such as physicians were used. New York State data on the number of apprentices also Estimating The Total Number Of Librarians In New York State By Industry Division In 1960 were utilized. Most important of all, occupational data from a 1960 wage study that covered most nonmanufac United States New York turing industries in the State were used.27 Industry division Number Percent State In many cases, the occupational figures from these sources, when adjusted to a 1960 basis, were different 8,800 1 0 0 .0 Total e m p lo y m e n t..................... 84,332 from those in the 1960 Census. They basically were 9 0.1 Agriculture ............................ 80 9 M in in g ....................................... 62 0.1 more reliable than the Census since they had been com Manufacturing ..................... 9 122 0.1 piled primarily from employer reports. Consequently, 258 Contract construction . . . 2,432 2.9 Transportation and public they were substituted for the Census data, wherever they 44 utilities ............................ 404 0.5 applied. In some cases the totals by occupational group 36 0.4 Wholesale and retail trade . 321 Finance, insurance, and had to be shifted. Increasing the number of workers in 36 0.4 real e s t a t e ......................... 360 one occupation because of known outside data meant Services and miscellanoeus.. 77,466 92.1 8,177 302 Public administration . . . . 2,843 3.4 that the number in other occupations had to be reduced. 242 Not reported............................. By and large, where such adjustments did not offset each other, they were made in the “all other” category of the The other professional occupations were treated in the group. The largest adjustments among occupation group same way. totals involved a shift from sales workers to clerical However, the national occupation-by-industry distri workers and laborers in retail trade. Our 1960 retail bution for “other” professionals differs from New York trade wage study showed a larger proportion of workers State’s, so that, when all such estimates were added, the in clerical occupations (checker, etc.) and laborers (stock sums by industry division differed from those previously boy) than did the Census, and showed a smaller propor derived for “other” professionals. Therefore, the data tion in sales than did the Census. had to be prorated using an iterative procedure24 so that the sum of the detailed occupations by industry division add to the number of “other” professionals and at the 25 Technical Manpower in N ew York State, New York State same time each individual occupation by industry Department of Labor, Division of Research and Statistics. division adds to its occupation total as shown in Census 26 M anpower in Selected Metal Crafts in N ew York State, table 120. New York State Department of Labor, Division of Research and After estimates were obtained for each of the Census Statistics, Publication B-107. professional occupations, by industry division, the 27 Wages and Hours in Industries Covered by the Minimum York State (this figure is taken from Census table 120) yields their estimated employment by industry division in the State. In the same manner employment estimates were derived for the other professional occupations in which data for either sex were missing. By using the above procedure, estimates were made for missing detailed occupation-sex components, and the resulting “other” group was made consistent for each sex by subtracting these estimates. Totals for the “other” group, by industry division, were made in this manner for the State and each area. Since the matrix needed figures for individual occupa tions included in the “other” group, these figures were estimated by utilizing the data from Census volume PC 2 (7C). The following tabulation uses librarians, male and female, as an example. Their national percent distribution by industry division was applied to the 8,880 librarians in New York State (Census table 120). 24 Ibid. Wage Law, N ew York State, 1960-1961, New York State Department of Labor, Division of Research and Statistics, Publication B-132. 25 T a b le 9. W ork F o r c e and Labor (In Force R eco n cilia tio n , New Y o r k S ta te thousands) P rocedure A d ju ste d census U n em p loy m en t civ ilia n rate la b or (p ercen t) 1960 \_/ force 7 ,2 7 3 £ / ---------------- 5 oO U n e m p l o y e d ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 363 3 1 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 6 ,9 1 0 n o n a g r i c u l t u r a l s e l f - e m p l o y e d and u n p a id fa m i l y w o r k e r s and d o m e s t i c s 4 / a g r i c u l t u r e 4 / --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 920 5 _ / -------------------------------------------------- 5 ,8 2 7 6 / -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 ,1 8 2 D i f f e r e n c e ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 355 R esid en t Less Less Census BLS e m p loy ed n on a g ricu l tu ra l n o n a g ricu ltu ra l N et com m u tation Dual jo b resid en t wage and wage sa la ry and sa la ry w orkers w orkers 163 7 7 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- h old ers le ss th ose w ith a jo b but not b ein g p a id 144 8 / --------------------------------------------- 211 D iscre p a n cy 1/ For 2/ From B ureau of d eriv a tion New Y o r k E m ploym en t 3/ a. 4/ New Y o r k Row E m ploym en t of S tate U .S . Census U .S . D epartm ent 7/ D ata d e riv in g 1 1); of SMSA’ s fo r be S tates. one re sid e n ce (row s by p la ce of w ork 5 ). (row fig u res 4 ). no by and com m ute are cou nted but not d ata Part of 34, Labor in suggests from of of E m p loym en t, E m p loy m en t, ta b le e stim a ted by u sin g the e stim a ted by B ureau of 122. S ta tistics, P op u la tion such from and m ore the th at the C ounty u sin g 4) (row 5) I, d a ta E m ploym en t to C ensus were C ounty in and a va ila b le, ta b le 132 of the E arn in g s another are cou nted in than once Census in counted the for S tates the amount to (R esea rch Census for resid en t 5 percent of wage a ll of the S ta te P eop le la b or e m p lo y m e n t BLS n o n a g r i c u l t u r a l wage and and sa la ry job s In B u lletin s m a ll.) civ ilia n n on a g ricu ltu ra l n o n a g ricu ltu ra l jo b s the W ork. S ta te a p p roxim ation re la tiv e ly in to New Y o r k S tate a good is Journey the P op u la tion S tates in (6 B ), from New Y o r k are are dual PC2 taken d a ta n on con tigu ou s to w ork 1 and h old ers N a tion a l D iv isio n S tate from w here (C om m u ta tion in w orkers ob ta in ed d erived of (row V o l. B ureau C om m uting liv e jo b Labor, New Y o r k S tates, can S tate be p la ce Dual 3o D iv isio n 1 37 0 -3 . for by 8/ of L abor, can Com m erce, con tig u ou s who of B u lletin p attern s colu m n Labor, 3. P o p u la tio n , com m u tation how ever, com m u tin g and for net D epartm ent N o. of 1 9 3 9 -6 5 , row 7, of m eth od. 6/ A reas ta b le m eth od0 D epartm ent 5/ and see D epartm ent S ecu rity 1 m in u s S ecu rity 1960 S tate and force d a ta sa la ry w orkers th is f a c t o r ( a c t u a l l y 4 .9 p e r c e n t ) was u s e d f o r th e S t a t e . d u r in g th e week b e ca u s e th ey w ere s i c k , on v a c a t io n o r r e s i d e n t w a g e a n d s a l a r y w o r k e r s b u t n o t a m o n g t h e BLS T h o s e w i t h a j o b b u t who d i d g e t p a i d o n s t r i k e w e r e c o u n t e d among t h e C e n s u s n o n a g r i c u l t u r a l wage and s a l a r y w o r k e r s . T h eir force used number fo r d e riv e If the row am ounts to S ta te. A net about d eriv ed percent of 3 .4 of the percent la b o r (4 .9 m in u s n a tio n a lly and th is 1 .5 ) m u ltip lied by a gricu ltu ra l e m p lo y m e n t (row num ber row 5 was was used to 8. BL S n o n a g r i c u l t u r a l e m p loy ed 1 .5 rate and u n p aid (7 ,2 6 5 ,0 0 0 fa m ily in em p lo y m e n t w orkers 1 96 0 ). If (row and 5) p lu s d o m estics un em p loym en t Table 13 presents the final detailed occupation-byindustry-division distribution of the number of jobs in the State in 1960. A similar distribution was prepared for each area. E stim a tes f o r 1 9 6 5 Once the benchmark set of data described above was completed for 1960, a set of estimates for 1965 was made. The procedure used for the industry-occupation matrix for 1965 was similar to that utilized for 1970 and 1975, which will be described at a later stage. Nonfarm 26 (row (row 3) 5) are added is added togeth er, total w ork 7) tota l force is p lu s job s se lfare d e te rm in e d . employment by industry for 1965 was available from the same sources as the 1960 data. Total job figures for 1965 were calculated by using the same method employed in 1960. The ratios for self-employed and unpaid family workers to wage and salary workers obtained in 1960 were utilized for 1965, and the results were adjusted to agree with the total available from the New York State Division of Employ ment’s work force estimate. Federal government workers for 1965 were distributed by industry, using Division of Employment data. To distribute State and local govern ment employment, data from the Division of Employ- ment and the Census Bureau’s Governments Division were utilized.28 Where no data were available, distribu tions from the 1962 Census of Governments were used. The only new element that arose in estimating the data for 1965 was in the calculation of labor force by age and sex. For this purpose, a set of population estimates and projections at 5-year intervals by 5-year age-sex groups, compiled by the Cornell Aeronautical Laboratories for the State Office of Planning Coordina tion was utilized.29 These population estimates were adjusted to a noninstitutional civilian population basis by utilizing the information for 1960 and by assuming that the changes in these groups from 1960 to 1965 were the same in each age-sex group as those in the population as a whole. Labor force participation rates then were estimated, first by utilizing the change that occurred nationally in each age-sex cohort between 1960 and 1965.30 When these ratios to the population figures had been applied, the resulting estimate for total civilian labor force showed an increase of about 3.5 percent between 1960 and 1965. About 3.1 of the 3.5 percent represented the result of population changes, a fact derived by applying the 1960 participation rates to the 1965 population. In contrast to the 3.5 percent change between 1960 and 1965 in estimated civilian labor force, there was a change of only 2.9 percent in estimated work force. The current population counts by age and sex could have been wrong, or the work force estimates could have been wrong. However, both possibilities seemed unlikely, because the work force estimates are in large part determined by actual measurement for the State and because the population estimates, except for net migration, are determined similarly. The discrepancy was sought in one of the other elements of the estimating process. Tremendous changes could have taken place in the net commutation pattern. However, this factor was discounted. The one remaining element of major signifi cance was the assumption that New York’s labor force participation rates had changed between 1960 and 1965 at the same rate as those nationally. If this assumption was erroneous a reasonable set of figures with which to 28 See Public Em ploym ent in 1965 and City Em ploym ent in 1965. Also Distribution o f N ew York State Positions by County and Agency, 1964, New York State Civil Service Commission. 29 Demographic Projections for N ew York State Counties, New York State Executive Department, Office of Planning Coordination. 30 Cooper, Sophia and Denis Johnston, “Labor Force Projections for 1970-80,” M onthly Labor Review, February 1965,p .130. reconcile our 1960 and 1965 data by age, sex, and indus try might be obtained by using changes in national participation rates, modified between 1960 and 1965, particularly for women. After the data were modified, a reconciliation for 1965 between the total number of jobs and the labor force was obtained similar to the one for 1960, given in table 9. Projections for 1970 and 1975 L a b o r fo r c e a n d n on farm e m p lo y m e n t p ro je c tio n s The projections for 1970 and 1975 build on the base of population projections made for the State Office of Planning Coordination by the Cornell Aeronautical Laboratories, which were mentioned earlier. This set of projections had the advantage of presenting figures for each county of the State, so that area projections could be made on the same basis as for the State as a whole. They were amended to a civilian noninstitutional basis in a manner similar to that used for 1960. Changes shown by national projections of labor force participation rates were now utilized to obtain a first approximation of the labor force in 1970 and 1975, and these figures were amended later by a method similar to that described in connection with the 1965 data to reconcile the labor force totals with the total job figures. Unemployment was assumed to average 4 percent for the State as a whole. In some areas, lower levels of unemployment appeared reasonable; in other areas, somewhat higher levels were used. Several experimental procedures were used to project nonagricultural employment for 1970 and 1975. One approach was to use logarithmic regression, another to use linear regression. Both were applied to the State wide employment data, and then both were applied to the State data as a percent of the United States data. The results of the four methods were compared and the decision was made to utilize as the basic regression model Log Y = a + bt, where Y represents for each industry the percent that New York’s employment is of national employment for each year of the period 1947-65, and t = time in years. The proportions were projected to 1970 and 1975 and, because they were in terms of percent of national nonagricultural employment, were multiplied by the BLS national employment projections, on a 4-percentunemployment-level base, to obtain projected employ ment in New York State for 1970 and 1975. For industries where a more detailed breakdown than 2 digits was needed in manufacturing and 1 digit in 27 to oo T a b le Industry 10. A g r i c u l t u r e ---------------------------M i n i n g --------------------------------------C o n s t r u c t i o n ........................... M a n u f a c t u r i n g ----------------------T r a n s p o r t a t i o n ...................... T r a d e ----------------------------------------F i n a n c e ................... - ..................... S e r v i c e -----------------------------------P u b l i c a d m i n i s t r a t i o n ----N o t r e p o r t e d ------------------------- In clu des In clu des In clu des Source: U .S . 825,021 6 54,266 118,850 2 ,5 5 2 939 16,312 159,494 26,746 32,782 17,801 530,414 3 5,440 2 ,541 6 3,2 32 8 79 2 9,279 119,961 36,493 226,805 6 7,7 42 11,531 321,894 1 ,8 8 6 ,3 7 9 508,572 1 ,2 0 2,64 3 409,243 1 ,4 7 4 ,8 2 5 313,773 351,752 Census o f P opu lation , 11. V ol. C ensus Employment d iv isio n A g r i c u l t u r e -----------------------------------M i n i n g ........................................................ ( M a n u f a c t u r i n g -------------------------------C o n t r a c t c o n s t r u c t i o n -------------T r a n s p o r t a t i o n an d p u b l i c u t i l i t i e s -----------------------------------W h o l e s a l e and r e t a i l t r a d e - F i n a n c e , i n s u r a n c e , and r e a l e s t a t e -------------------------------S e r v i c e s a nd m i s c e l l a n e o u s - P u b l i c a d m i n i s t r a t i o n -------------- 1/ Managers 1/ 6 ,5 9 9 ,4 6 2 T otal, a ll i n d u s t r i e s ----------------------- 2/ 3/ 4/ P rofession a l O ccu p a tion Group, O peratives S ervice workers 2/ Laborers 3/ Not R eported 1 ,1 9 7 ,2 4 9 747 ,14 8 277,391 401 ,09 7 4 7,3 32 98 211 2 ,5 4 4 S ales 1 ,1 9 5 ,8 5 1 483 ,17 7 818 ,26 2 507 92 1 ,5 4 8 996 2 ,7 1 2 171,737 339,231 9 8,0 71 83,5 76 2,1 2 3 4 ,7 8 1 24,6 91 . 801,517 135,340 126,448 8 ,8 6 7 94,3 26 1 5,936 2 ,8 1 0 2 ,8 2 5 8 6,9 27 8 ,1 3 9 4 ,4 5 8 80,9 83 3 ,9 3 9 326 ,06 0 55,9 06 1 2,1 16 219,499 138 ,38 8 * 243 5 ,6 4 6 1,7 8 3 C raftsm en 1960 C le r ica l 1 ,499 1 ,7 2 2 1 5,7 35 277,143| 1 34,087! 195,692 206 ,44 0 80,605 2 5,6 52 3 ,6 1 8 by I n d u s t r y D i v i s i o n , 511 ; 19 5 2 ,3 8 0 2 4,1 58 '1 9 ,2 4 5 168,738 3 8,5 57 419 ,36 9 71,4 18 2 ,5 7 7 57,6 68 54,4 89 4 8,4 18 27,8 47 6 ,5 6 1 1 7,0 07 1 3,9 18 2 9,403 6 ,233 1 4,695 4 ,5 4 4 14,562 4 ,6 3 9 . 324,168 4 ,1 5 1 f a r m e r s and f a r m m a n a g e r s . p r iv a t e h ou seh old w orkers. farm l a b o r e r s . T a b le Industry E m p lo y m e n t i n New Y o r k S t a t e , T otal, a ll occu pation s d iv ision T otal, a ll i n d u s t r i e s -------------- 1/ 2/ 3/ Census T otal, a l l occu pation s I, Part 34, T a b le 125. i n New Y o r k S t a t e , P rofession a l O ccu p a tion Managers Group by I n d u s t r y C le rica l S ales D iv is io n , C raftsm en 1960 1/ O peratives S ervice W orkers 3/ Lab^yers 1 6 ,5 9 9 ,4 6 2 874,991 6 89 ,81 0 1 ,2 7 9,05 2 513 ,17 2 863 ,75 8 1 ,2 7 6 ,9 5 2 805,032 296,695 123,966 65,2 48 935 127,835 3 0,8 19 1 ,5 6 3 1 ,8 5 1 298,563 16,7 40 524 98 8 6,4 74 535 210 50,2 47 -- '1 ,6 3 3 1 ,0 2 5 2 ,8 8 0 360,699 1 80,350 2 ,2 0 4 5 ,1 2 1 859 ,17 6 337,851 2 ,6 2 0 9 98 169,900 17,1 64 26,1 47 2 6,1 65 2 ,5 4 8 59,7 40 62,450 536,426 1 ,2 7 0 ,7 9 0 2 8,3 37 3 4,8 56 38,6 83 241 ,23 8 143,659 210 ,38 0 4 ,1 8 3 347 ,50 4 103,721 8 8,6 76 1 44,309 135,262 2 0,7 33 182 ,40 0 52,801 3 0,4 74 433,681 1 8,923 564 ,63 7 37,5 56 72,0 40 8 5,8 32 2 7 ,1 80 221 ,87 0 2 36,230 1 48,196 5 9,5 70 1 2,928 258 9 ,4 0 7 ; 100,177 1 6,823 3 ,0 2 0 9 3,0 39 8 ,6 7 4 4 1,6 71 4 53,861 7 ,1 8 0 18,631 15,172 12,093 1 ,9 8 8 ,5 5 2 1 ,5 6 5 ,3 3 5 330,768 " N o t r e p o r t e d " w e r e p r o r a t e d by a g e , I n c l u d e s f a r m e r s an d f a r m m a n a g e r s . In c lu d e s p r i v a t e hou seh old w ork ers. I n c l u d e s farm l a b o r e r s . sex, color, and r e s i d e n c e . 76,909 nonmanufacturing, the trend of New York’s employ ment as a percent of United States employment between 1960 and 1965 was extrapolated to 1970 and 1975. The reason for using 1960 and 1965 to find a trend, rather than seeking a longer-range trend, was the lack of comparable data before 1958 for New York State, its areas, and the United States, at the 3-digit level. In addition, 1960 was the year in which the standard for a coverage under the New York State Unemployment Insurance Law was reduced to one employee or more; so that, beginning with 1960, insured employment data could be used without small-firm adjustments. The resulting percentages were multiplied by the BLS national projections and prorated to the 2-digit manufac turing and 1-digit nonmanufacturing totals previously projected by the regression line method. The following tabulation gives an example of this process for two in dustry subgroups that together constitute industry group X. The projections for the two subgroups (line J in the table) add up to 112,200. This figure is a little more than the 111 ,400 that the regression-line method yielded for industry group X. Prorating scales the two subgroup figures down proportionately, so that their sum just equals 111,400 (line M). P rojection O f T o tal Jo b s T o 1970 F o r 3-Digit Su b gro u p s O f 2-Digit Industry G rou p X Step A. B. C. D. E. F. G. H. I. J. K. L. M. 1960 national e stim a te ........................................ I960 State estim ate............................................... 1960 national-State ratio (B /A )........................ 1965 national e stim a te ........................................ 1965 State estim ate............................................... 1965 national-State ratio (E/D) .................... Ratio o f 1960 ratio to 1965 ratio (F/C) . . . 1970 national-State ratio (GxE) .................... 1970 national projection .................................. 1970 State projection ( H x l) .............................. 1970 State regression-line p ro je c tio n .............. Ratio of K to J ...................................................... 1970 State projections prorated to K .............. Area estimates of nonfarm jobs by industry were made by similar methods. These will be described in a forthcoming technical bulletin of the Division of Re search and Statistics. The total nonagricultural employment estimate in each area that resulted from this procedure then was compared with the independently estimated labor force figures, and adjustments were made to reconcile the two sets of projections. These adjustments, in most cases, were minor and did not affect significantly the overall estimating framework. When the estimates were com pleted, a set of labor force and nonagricultural employ ment figures, together with a reconciliation sheet, was sent to knowledgeable people within the New York State Departments of Labor and Commerce to check for possible circumstances that the calculations could not take account of—for example, a new plant known to be moving into an area or an important old plant about to leave the area, etc. The estimates also were compared, Su b grou p B T o tal = In dustry grou p X 3 2 6 ,4 0 0 9 5 ,7 0 0 0 .2 9 3 2 7 ,9 0 0 6 ,1 0 0 0 .2 1 9 3 5 4 ,3 0 0 1 0 1 ,8 0 0 - 3 5 2 ,9 0 0 9 6 ,8 0 0 0 .2 7 4 2 9 ,8 0 0 7 ,4 0 0 0 .2 4 8 3 8 2 ,7 0 0 1 0 4 ,2 0 0 - 0 .9 3 5 1 .132 - 0 .2 5 6 4 0 0 ,0 0 0 1 0 2 ,4 0 0 0.2 8 1 3 5 ,0 0 0 9 ,8 0 0 4 3 5 ,0 0 0 1 1 2 ,2 0 0 Su b grou p A _ ~ 1 0 1 ,7 0 0 - 9 ,7 0 0 _ 1 1 1 ,4 0 0 0 .9 9 3 1 1 1 ,4 0 0 wherever possible, with projections made by other agencies. Again, some slight adjustments in the projec tions were made as a result of such local contacts. Since data for most of 1966 were available by the time the projections were completed, a cheek was made of 1965-66 trends to determine whether or not the 1965-70 trends were in line; some adjustments resulted from this appraisal. All the adjustments in the projec tions resulted in changing the final 1975 projections by less than 1 percent overall. Of course, in some industries, particularly in manufacturing, the amount of adjustment was somewhat greater. Jobs by industry After the nonagricultural employment figures by detailed industry by area had been prepared, these figures had to be changed from a wage and salary worker concept to a total jobs concept. The number of 29 ou> Table 12. Total Jobs in New York State, Occupation Group by Industry Division: Prorated from a Census Resident Employment Basis to a Total Job Basis (In thousands) Managers C lerical Total, a ll Industry division Craftsmen Operatives Sales occupations Professionals Total, a ll industries--------------Agriculture-----------------------Mining--------------------------------Manufacturing--------------------Contract construction--------Transportation and public u t il i t ie s -----------------------Wholesale and reta il tradeFinance, insurance, and real esta te--------------------Services and m iscellaneousPublic adm inistration-------- 7,265.0 174.7 9.5 1,951.2 379.0 584.3 1,540.6 531.5 1,763.6 330.6 1/ Includes farmers and farm managers. 2/ Includes private household workers. 3/ Includes farm laborers. 960.5 3.7 0.8 166.7 19.3 30.9 42.3 23.2 636.1 37.5 799.5 92.0 0.7 125.4 34.6 42.1 292.5 88.3 96.7 27.2 1,413.0 2.2 1.4 293.0 18.8 156.5 255.0 271.9 266.2 148.0 601.2 0.7 0.1 84.8 1.8 4.6 421.3 73.0 14.6 0.3 921.5 1.4 2.3 353.9 202.2 113.0 107.5 11.5 112.9 16.8 1,317.8 3.1 4.0 843.1 29.3 157.1 164.0 3.7 104.8 8.7 Service workers 2/ Laborers 3/ 912.6 0.8 0.2 25.7 2.9 22.6 221.1 51.1 511.3 76.9 338.9 70.8 58.6 70.1 57.5 36.9 8.8 21.0 15.2 self-employed workers had to be added to each industry in each area, and government workers had to be distributed by industry. The breakdown for government workers, by industry or function, which had been worked up for 1960 and 1965 was used as a basis for extrapolating to 1970 and 1975 within the framework of total government employment projections derived from the regression equation. Projections for total self-employed persons and domestic employees were based on the assumption that their percentage of nonagricultural employment would change at only half the annual rate that prevailed during the 1960-65 period, since both sectors had declined sharply during that period. The number of self-employed in each industry was estimated by using 1960 ratios and then prorating the results to their total estimates. Trends derived from the 1958 and 1963 Censuses of Business were examined in order to make adjustments in the trade and service sectors as to the number of self-employed. Licensing trends also were consulted, for example, the trend in physician licenses. Agricultural employment for each area was derived from United States Department of Agriculture data, and trends determined from these data were utilized to project this segment of employment. mark year 1960 was described earlier. From the BLS, a detailed industry-by-occupation matrix is available for the years 1960 and 1975. (Similar to that presented in appendix G, Vol. IV.) The 1960 national matrix was applied to the total number of jobs in New York State for each of the 116 industries and a set of occupation totals in each of nine industry divisions in each of the 162 occupations was obtained. Ratios were determined in each occupation-industry-division cell between the occupation figures obtained as a result of applying the 1960 national matrix and the independently estimated occupation figures from table 13. For 1975, the national matrix was applied to the independently projected New York State figures for the total number of jobs, by industry, and totals were obtained again on a detailed occupation and industry division basis. To these totals, the 1960 ratios were applied in each cell, and projections for New York State by detailed occupation and industry division for 1975 comparable to the independently estimated New York State data for 1960 were obtained. The following tabulation illustrates the procedure as applied for accountants: The mechanical procedure can be modified where small numbers are involved (agriculture, mining) by Occupation projections using absolute differences rather than ratios, e.g., for The process that was used for obtaining total jobs by accountants, in agriculture, 100-20 + 33 = 113 projected detailed occupation and industry division for the bench accountants in 1975. I960 1975 State based on national m atrix3 D 68,925 Adjusted State projections (C x D) E 82,100 5.000 4.615 1.075 1.273 33 114 1,633 11,548 200 500 1,800 14,700 3,897 6,214 1.232 1.030 3,898 6,254 4,800 6,400 6,492 24,601 4,562 1.340 1.089 1.578 5,596 33,988 5,861 7,500 37,000 9,200 State independent estim ates1 A State based on national matrix. 2 B Total, all accountants .............. 69,800 58,187 Agriculture ........................... M in in g ..................................... C onstruction........................... M anufacturing .................... Transportation and public utilities ........................... Trade ........................................ Finance, insurance, and real e s ta te ........................ Services .................................. Public adm inistration . . . . 100 300 1,100 14,400 20 65 1,023 11,313 4,800 6,400 8,700 26,800 7,200 Industry division Ratio of A to B C 1 From table 13. 2 The BLS industry-occupation m atrix for 1960 applied to total jobs in New York State in each of 116 industries; e.g., there were 333, 400 jobs in apparel in 1960 in New York State which when m ultiplied by 0.09%-the percent that accountants are of apparel nationally as shown in the BLS matrix-gives an estim ate of 300 accountants. The num ber of accountants in each of the 116 industries were then added to obtain the 9 industry division totals shown in this column. 3 Similar to colum n B using the 1975 BLS m atrix and 1975 New York State total job projections. 31 After the projections were completed for all cells the New York State?1 A check also was made on the figures were totaled and comparisons made between difference in 1950-60 trends by occupation in the nation 1960 and 1975. In several cases, where occupation data and New York State as shown by 1950 and 1960 Census were available for a series of years for New York State data, and these relationships also were utilized in from other sources, independent projections were made amending the results of the matrix calculation. For 1965 and 1970, occupation projections were and amendments were made in the projections that resulted from the mechanical process outlined above. obtained by a method similar to that used for 1975. A Such data were available from licensing sources for national matrix for these 2 years was necessary. It was doctors, dentists, and several other professional groups, devised by interpolating the 1960-75 proportions for and for teachers from the State Education Department. each occupation in each industry. Independent projections were made for technicians by M anpower in N ew York State, vol. I, Supple using the methods described in a report of the New York ment31B, “JobTechnical Projections in Technical Occupations,” New York State Department of Labor on Technical Manpower in State Department of Labor, Division of Research and Statistics. 32 Occupation Table 13. Total Number of Jobs in New York State by Detailed Occupation and Industry D ivision, 1960 (In thousands) — Transporta Total Agriculture Milling Construction Manufac tion turing Total occupation---------- 7,265.0 P rofessional, technical, and kindred----------------------930.5 Engineers, technical-------84.8 Engineers, aeronautical1.7 Engineers, chemical------7.3 Engineers, c iv il----------16.0 26.1 Engineers, electrica l — Engineers, industrial — 5.8 Engineers, mechanical— 22.8 Engineers, m etallurgica l, e t c ........................... 1.5 Engineers, mining---------0.1 Other engineers, technic a l-- ................................... 3.5 Natural s c ie n tis ts ----------17.9 Chemists-----------------------10.2 Agricultural scien tists0.7 B iological sc ie n tis ts — 1.7 G eologists and geop h y sicists..................--0.4 Mathematicians-------------1.8 P h y sicists............................. 2.7 Natural sc ie n tis ts , not elsewhere cla ssified -0.4 Technical workers and s p e c ia lists, excluding 124.8 medical and dental 1 / ......... Draftsmen-------------------------21.0 Structural design techni cians and related s p e c ia lis ts......... ................. 2.6 Electro and mechanical engineering technicians41.0 Electronic--------------------10.6 E lectric a l-........................... 8.5 Mechanical...........................8.3 13.6 Electro-mechanical-------u> u> See footnote at end of table. 174.7 9.5 379.0 1,951.2 584.3 4.5 0.1 ------- 0.9 0.1 -----.. 0.1 20.9 8.7 0.7 5.6 0.7 1.7 169.3 45.4 1.3 5.2 1.3 17.0 3.6 14.7 1.1 34.5 6.4 0.1 -1.5 3.5 0.4 0.8 0.1 --- 0.1 0.1 --- 1.2 10.7 6.9 0.2 0.7 0.1 1.1 1.7 0.1 0.3 0.3 --- . . -0.1 0.5 0.5 --. . 0.1 -.. ---- -- 0.1 --. . 0.1 -- . . ---- -- Public Finance Services adminis tration 1,540.6 531.5 1,763.6 330.6 Trade 43.6 5.1 0.4 0.3 1.1 0.5 2.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 1.1 --0.1 0.1 -- 23.7 1.0 --0.4 -0.5 0.1 __ 0.1 -0.1 _ _ 8.0 1.2 58.7 9.6 15.9 1.2 6.2 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.5 23.4 7.7 3.5 6.5 5.7 0.1 8.8 0.4 3.6 0.4 4.4 0.1 2.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.6 0.1 592.2 14.1 i 0.2 1.0 4.7 : 2.8 0.8 3.0 0.3 1.3 3.9 1.4 -0.9 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.4 40.9 3.9 0.1 2.2 1.0 0.5 -0.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.3 2.3 0.1 22.7 8.0 10.8 0.3 -- 1.3 4.4 1.8 0.7 1.1 0.8 1.4 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.1 -- u> A Occupation Mathematics technicians---Physical science technicians---------- ------------------Industrial engineering technicians-------------------C ivil engineering and construction technicians----------------------------Sales and service technicians----------------------------Technical writing and illu str a tio n technicians----------------------------Safety and sanitation inspectors and related s p e c ia lis ts-------------------Product testing and inspection s p e c ia lis ts -Data processing, systems analysis and programing s p e c ia lis ts.......................... Airway tower sp ec ia lists and flig h t dispatchers-Broadcasting, motion p ic ture and recording studio s p e c ia lis ts-------Radio operators....................... Medical and other health workers----------------------------D en tists---------------------------D ietitian s and nutritioni s t s .......................................... Nurses, professional-------Nurses, student....................... Optometrists--------------------Osteogaths............- ................... Pharmacists....... ..................... Physicians and surgeons---- Table 13. Total Number of Jobs in New York State by Detailed Occupation and Industry D ivision, I960--Continued ________________________ (In thousands)__________________________ Manufac Total Agriculture Mining Construction turing Transporta tion 0.8 8.7 6.9 0.1 0.1 13.1 2.0 6.0 0.1 0.1 0.8 3.6 2.2 3.9 8.2 0.3 7.0 .. 5.9 1.4 2.9 2.8 186.4 14.7 3.9 70.2 10.6 1.5 0.8 13.8 38.0 See footnotes at end of table. 0.6 6.6 5.0 -1.6 ---- -- Public Trade Finance Services adminis tration 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.1 0.9 0.1 0.1 2.2 0.4 0.3 1.1 0.2 0.2 2.6 2.3 1.6 0.1 1.7 __ 0.1 _ _ _ -- 0.2 0.2 1.3 1.1 0.2 0.5 3.1 0.1 2.9 0.1 1.3 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.5 2.7 0.5 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.2 1.0 0.3 0.1 167.9 14.7 3.8 67.5 10.6 1.1 0.8 1.7 37.4 0.1 0.8 0.9 _ 0.2 0.1 12.9 __ 0.4 __ 0.1 0.2 0.4 _ 12.1 0.1 0.2 _ _ 0.1 0.5 0.2 Table 13. Total Number of Jobs in New York State by Detailed Occupation and Industry D iv isio n , 1960--Continued (In thousands) Occupation Technicians, medical and dental..................- ............... V e te rin a ria n s---------------------Chiropractors and therap is t s ........ ........... - ............... Teachers---------------------------------Teachers, elementary---------Teachers, secondary............Teachers, other except c o lle g e --------------------------Teachers, c o lle g e --........ — So cia l s c ie n t is t s ...... ............ Economists--------------------------P hych ologists---------------------S t a t is t ic ia n s and actuarie s ----------------------------------Other s o cia l s c ie n t is t s ----Other p ro fe ssio n a l, te ch n ica l and kindred------------------------Accountants and a ud itors---Airplane p ilo ts and n avigato rs-----------------------A rc h ite c ts --------------------------A r t is t s , a th le te s, enterta in e rs ------------------- --------Clergymen----------------------------Designers, except design draftsmen------------ -----------Edito rs and rep o rte rs--------Foresters and conservat io n is t s - - ........................... Lawyers and ju d ge s-.............. L ib r a r ia n s --------------------------Personnel and labor re la tions workers------------------Photographers........ ................. So cial and welfare workersP ro fe ssio n a l, te ch n ica l, kindred, not elsewhere c la s s if ie d ----------------------- u> See footnotes at end of table Total A gricu ltu re Mining 24.6 1.2 0.4 1.2 7.1 191.0 94.7 55.6 ---- ---- -- ----- 21.9 18.8 10.4 3.5 2.5 --- Construction -- 4.0 0.4 Manufac turing Transporta tion Trade Finance 0.1 -- 0,7 0.5 0.2 1.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.9 0.1 -- 0.5 -2.2 1.2 0.1 0.7 0.3 -- 1.0 0.6 -- 1.6 0.4 -- 0.1 0.9 0.4 0.4 ---- 0.1 Services P u b lic adminis tratio n 23.2 0.2 -- 7.1 188.2 94.5 55.5 1.0 0.1 0.1 19.4 18.8 3.6 0.3 2.4 0.8 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.1 1.2 0.7 315.2 69.8 2.2 0.1 0.6 0.3 4.0 1.1 49.2 14.4 10.9 4.8 16.1 6.4 18.2 8.7 191.8 26.8 22.2 7.2 3.0 5.1 _ -- _ -- _ 0.3 0.3 0.2 2.2 0.1 _ 0.6 0.2 3.8 0.2 0.2 54.7 15.8 0.7 1.0 3.4 -- 0.2 -- 48.1 15.7 1.3 -- 0.5 1.4 0.6 __ 0.1 1.6 2.3 0.1 0.5 0.1 __ 0.7 0.1 2.0 0.1 __ 33.1 8.7 0.4 3.2 0.2 0.1 1.8 5.7 12.7 2.1 0.1 7.1 5.6 31.3 0.1 -- 6.6 16.9 0.6 40.7 9.5 0.2 --- 52.7 .. -- 0.1 3.6 13.2 .. 0.1 0.1 .. 1.0 0.3 0.1 -- 11.8 8.1 19.9 1.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.3 5.0 2.0 9.1 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.3 2.0 0.8 u> ON Table 13. Total Number of Jobs in New York State by Detailed Occupation and. Industry D iv is io n , 1960--Continued (In thousands) Occupation Total Managers, o f f i c i a l s , and p ro p rie to rs----- -------------------797.3 4.1 Conductors, ra ilro a d ---------Cre d it men------------ --------------6.0 O ffic e rs , p ilo t s , engineers, ship---------------------------------4.8 Postmasters and a ssista n t postmasters---------------------1.7 Purchasing agents--------------13.1 Managers, o f f i c i a l s , pro p rie to rs, not elsewhere c la s s if ie d -----------------------767.6 C le r ic a l and kindred workers- 1,443.0 Stenographers, t y p is t s , and se c re ta rie s--------------358.4 S e cre ta rie s---------------------231.4 Stenographers------------------38.7 T y p is ts----------------------------88.3 O ffice machine operators---50.4 B illin g and bookkeeping machine operators--------17.2 Key punch operators--------12.9 Tabulating machine operators---------------------11.2 Other o ffic e machine operators...... ................ 9.1 Other c le r ic a l and kindred workers----------------------------- 1,034.2 Accounting c le r k s -----------46.9 Bookkeepers, h an d ---------79.3 Bank t e lle r s --------------------20.6 C a s h ie r s --.......... - ........... . 58.4 ; Mail c a r r ie r s ------------------23.7 Postal c le r k s ------------------35.0 Shipping and re ce ivin g c le r k s .... .......................... 45.8 Telephone operators--------56.0 C le r ic a l and kindred, not elsewhere c la s s if ie d - - 668.5 See footnote at end of tab le. A griculture Mining 85.8 --- 1.1 --- 0.2 . . Construction . 34.4 -0.2 _ Manufac turing Transporta tion 126.7 1.2 43.6 4.1 0.1 0.2 4.1 Trade Finance 293.4 81.7 3.6 0.8 . . . . _____ 106.3 269.2 20.2 149.4 47.1 32.7 3.6 10.8 8.1 68.1 38.9 5.7 23.5 13.7 111.8 80.5 11.2 20.1 6.0 26.3 10.4 7.0 8.9 4.0 1.0 1.4 2.6 1.8 6.5 3.3 2.1 1.2 0.2 1.7 3.0 1.1 1.6 2.9 1.0 1.6 0.1 3.1 0.6 2.1 1.0 1.7 0.5 0.1 --- 14.4 2.4 2.0 --- 199.0 9.6 19.9 134.2 3.2 2.7 226.8 15.6 27.9 151.4 6.4 9.5 119.1 2.2 0.7 1.5 3.1 43.4 187.4 7.5 16.1 20.6 2.4 7 c4 0.6 23.7 35.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 27.1 4.6 1.8 32.1 14.8 4.3 0.2 3.2 1.4 9.9 0.4 1.5 0.3 9.6 136.3 91.3 120.8 137.4 116.8 55.0 _____ 0.5 7.9 0.6 2.0 85.6 2.3 1.0 1.4 33.7 21.0 117.4 291.9 34.7 156.6 287.8 282.0 0.9 0.7 -0.2 -- 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 6.4 4.5 0.9 1.0 0.2 78.7 53.1 7.7 17.9 14.2 18.3 10.0 2.5 5.8 4.1 0.1 -- 0.1 -- 4.6 3.5 ---- 0.5 _ _ 1.0 _ _ _ . . 1.4 -0.4 0.1 80.9 269.2 _____ 0.1 . . 22.7 --- 1.7 0.8 _____ -- . . 107.9 -0.3 P ub lic adminis tratio n 1.2 _____ -- Services _____ Table 13. Total Number of Jobs in New York State by Detailed Occupation and Industry D iv isio n , 1960--Continued (In thousands) Occupation Sales workers------------------------Insurance agents and brokers....................... ........ Real estate agents and brokers.............. .................. Sales workers, not elsewhere c la s s if ie d -------------Craftsmen, foremen, and kindred workers................... Construction craftsmen------Carpenters........ .................. Brickmason, stone, t it le s e tte rs ------------------------Cement and concrete fin is h e rs --------------------------E le c t r ic ia n s ..................... Excavating, grading, machine operators--------Painters and paperhange rs ..................................... P la s te re rs -----------------------Plumbers and p ip e fitte rs Roofers and s la t e r s .......... Stru ctu ra l metalworkers-Foremen, not elsewhere c la s s if ie d -----------------------Metalworking craftsmen------M achinists production and toolroom and maintenance------------------------Machine tool operators, C la ss A.... ........... - ........... Blacksm iths, forge, hammermen...... ................ - See footnote at end of table Total 568.6 A gricu ltu re 0.7 Mining 0.1 Construction 2.1 Manufac turing 82.6 Transporta tion 4.6 Finance 385.4 71.5 21.2 0.4 41.2 0.1 _ 41.3 0.1 19.5 P u b lic adminis tratio n Trade Services 0.1 .. 19.1 0.2 .. 507.8 0.7 0.1 2.0 82.6 4.5 385.4 11.2 20.9 0.4 929.3 224.9 66.3 1.7 0.3 0.2 2.0 0.6 0.1 199.6 157.6 48.8 384.6 30.9 8.2 110.5 9.9 1.9 98.0 6.8 2.6 10.9 2.5 0.5 105.1 13.0 3.3 16.9 3.3 0.7 17.0 1.3 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 1.8 14.3 10.2 4.6 1.0 0.4 3.2 0.8 0.1 0.4 9.3 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.1 __ __ 32.0 4.4 22.6 4.5 2.9 1.8 0.2 5.7 0.1 2.9 1.0 1.2 1.8 1 c2 0.1 -- 0.9 0.1 0.3 4.4 0.1 1.8 -- 1.3 --- 0.4 0.1 10.5 4.2 76.0 122.5 13.1 2.5 13.4 1.0 0.9 -- 5.5 2.3 2.7 0.7 0.1 0.5 33.5 1.4 0.5 0.8 0.4 29.4 0.1 1.2 0.2 19.4 1.8 34.6 11.0 42.6 4.8 33.9 4.7 5.8 123.0 133.3 -0.5 -- 37.2 29.6 1.9 -- -- 0 .! 0.5 0.1 -- -- 0.2 0.2 00 Table 13. Total Number of Jobs in New York State by Detailed Occupation and Industry D iv is io n , 1960--Continued (In thousands) Occupation Boilermakers-------------------Heat tre a te rs, annealers, e t c .------------------------------M illw rig h ts---------------------Molders, metal (excluding coremakers)...................... Patternmakers metal and wood-----------------------------R o lle rs and r o ll hands---Tinsm iths..................- ......... Toolmakers and diemakersE le ctro p la te rs ----------------Assemblers, metalwork, Cla ss A-------------------------In sp ecto rs, metalwork, C la ss A..............- ............. Selected p rin tin g trades craftsmen------------------------Compositors and types e tte rs ------------------------Electro typers and stereotypers----------------Engravers, except photoengravers---------------------Photoengravers and lith o graphers-----------------------Pressmen and plate p rin te rs ...... ..................... Selected s k ille d occupa tio n s, transportation, p u b lic u t i l i t i e s ................ Linemen, servicemen, telephone, telegraph and power---------------------Locomotive engineers------Locomotive firemen---------- A griculture Total 1.6 Mining Construction Manufac turing Transporta tion Trade Finance Services .. 0.3 0.6 0.3 .. .. 0.4 .. .. 1.4 4.8 -- -- 0.4 1.4 4.3 0.1 .. -- .. -- .. -- 3.4 _ _ _ 3.4 _ _ _ _ ----- ----- .. --- 0.2 2.9 3.4 2.2 7.3 14.9 1.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 3.6 2.2 11.3 15.4 1.0 , 0.3 0.1 -- 0.4 0.1 44.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 1.5 0.3 25.5 0.1 0.4 0.3 1.0 0.1 1.1 _ _ _ __ _ 1.7 __ 0.1 _ 0.1 0.1 12.4 12.4 7.5 7.5 0.1 47.1 27.4 1.1 __ 2.0 _ _ 4.5 _ _ _ 4.4 _ _ _ 0.1 12.1 .. .. 0.1 11.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 1.1 0.8 28.7 0.1 0.2 1.1 --- 0.7 0.1 22.4 3.9 2.4 0.1 -- 0.2 -- 30.9 24.5 4.0 2.4 -- -- --- -i See footnote at end of table. P u b lic adminis tratio n Table 13. Total Number of Jobs in New York State by Detailed Occupation and Industry D iv is io n , 1960--Continued (In thousands) Occupation Total Mechanics and repairmen----226.5 Airplane mechanics and repairmen---------------------11.2 Motor ve h icle mechanics-58.3 O ffice machine mechanics4.3 Radio and te le v isio n mechanics---------------------11.3 Railroad and car shop mechanics---------------------3.5 Other mechanics and repairmen---------------------137.9 Other craftsmen and kindred 143.6 workers-------- ------------------Bakers.... ...................... ....... 18.8 Cabinetmakers------------------6.9 Cranemen, derrickmen, 8.4 hoistmen----------------------G la z ie rs --------------------------1.8 Jewelers and watchmakers6.9 Loom f ix e r s ---------------------0.2 M ille r s - - ..............- ............. 0.5 O ptician s, lens grin d ers, e t c . ................................... 4.4 Stationary engineers-------• 28.3 In sp ecto rs, log and lumber--------------------------0.3 In sp ecto rs, other-----------9.8 6.4 Upholsterers....................... Craftsmen and kindred workers, not elsewhere c la s s if ie d -------------------50.9 Operatives and kindred workers..................................... 1,285.8 Select sem iskilled occupa tio n s, transportation, p u b lic u t i l i t i e s -------------272.4 See footnote at end of table. u> VO A gricu ltu re Construction Mining Manufac turing Transporta tion Trade Finance 6.0 0.8 0.5 15.0 56.8 38.5 46.2 -0.3 -- --- 0.7 3.7 3.6 0.6 6.6 7.2 0.1 0.7 0.6 Services P u b lic adminis tratio n 54.7 8.0 0.2 23.2 2.2 0.3 21.8 1.4 0.4 1.5 0.1 3.1 6.7 0.1 3.5 0.5 0.5 14.2 48.2 20.6 17.5 6.0 24.5 5.9 0.1 0.4 11.1 53.6 12.3 4.4 17.6 30.0 5.3 0.8 1.1 28.0 1.1 0.9 1.7 0.1 0.1 4.9 0.4 0.9 0.2 0.5 1.0 ---- 0.5 0.8 3.3 ---- 2.6 0.1 1.1 0.6 6.3 1.2 0.6 ----- 0.2 0.1 -- 1.7 0.6 -- 0.2 0 o2 1.7 12.5 -5.3 2.1 1.5 1.9 0.3 1.5 2.7 5.2 0.1 -0.5 1.0 6.1 11.3 5.9 14.2 30.4 810.7 153.7 170.2 14.0 50.1 64.9 -- 0.1 3.3 3.8 1.2 0.3 1 124.6 i___________ ;' --- 0.1 -0.7 2.6 13.2 0.1 3.9 101.7 8.1 1.1 12.4 3.8 o Table 13. Total Number of Jobs in New York State by Detailed Occupation and Industry D iv is io n , 1960--Continued Occupation D riv e rs, bus, tru ck, tra c to r-------------------------D e live ry , routemen, cab d riv e rs -------------------------Brakemen and switchmen ra ilro a d -------------- ---------Power sta tio n operators-S a ilo rs and deck hands---Apprentices-------------------------A sbesto s-in sulatio n workers................................. Sem iskilled metal workers-Furnacemen, sm elters, pourers-------------------------Heaters, metal----------------Welders and flame cutte rs ------------------------------E le ctro p la te r h elp e rs----Machine tool operators, metalworkers, Cla ss B -Assemblers, metalworking, Class B------------ ------------In sp ecto rs, metalworking, Cla ss B -........................... Sem iskilled occupations, te x tile s -a p p a re l-------------K n itte rs, loopers, and toppers------------------------Spinners, t e x t ile -----------Weavers, t e x t ile -------------Sewers and s tit c h e r s , manufacturing--------------Other operatives and kindred workers--------------Attendants, automobile service and parking----B la ste rs and powdermen— See footnote at end of table _______________________ (In thousands)_________________________ Manufac Transporta A griculture Mining Construction Total tion turing 161.6 0.9 90.9 0.3 9.6 2.4 7.9 16.7 ---- ---- 8 c9 1.3 112.0 .. -- 0.1 0.8 2.1 3.4 0.3 _ __ 22.2 1.7 -- 0.1 -- 22.5 .. 0.3 Trade F inance Services P u b lic adminis tra tio n 13.7 27.8 69.8 41.1 0.4 4.4 3.2 0*3 21.6 35.6 23.8 0.7 , 8.0 0.6 0.3 0.4 5.3 9.3 2.0 7.9 0.3 0.9 ---- 1.2 0.1 0.4 106.8 0.6 0.1 0.5 1.3 0.6 0.6 0.5 1.3 0.2 -- 3.4 0.3 2.1 17.4 1.7 22.5 45.1 45.1 16.8 16.4 109.0 109.0 3.8 0.7 1.7 _ --- 3.8 0.7 1.7 102.8 .. 102.8 774.4 2.1 3.4 20.6 0.2 ““ 0.2 4.6 0.4 539.1 28.2 103.8 0.1 — 0.2 19.1 2.8 86.8 1.2 3.6 T a b le 13. T o t a l N u m b er o f J o b s O c c u p a t io n and I n d u s t r y i n New Y o r k S t a t e b y D e t a i l e d D i v is i o n , 1 9 6 0 --C on tin u ed j O ccu p a tio n T otal A gricu ltu re M in in g C on stru ction M an u fac tu rin g T ransporta tio n P u b lic Trade F in a n ce S ervices ad m in is tra tion Laundry and dry clea n in g o p e r a t i v e s ----------------------------M eat c u t t e r s , e x c e p t meat M ine p a c k i n g - ....................... - o p e ra tiv e s, not else w h e re and k in d red w orkers, not elsew h ere c l a s s i f i e d ----------------------------w o r k e r s ------------------------------- P riv a te h ou seh old F irem en , and W aiters, 2 .1 0 .5 4 .6 5 38 .6 2 7 .3 5 3 .9 2 .8 4 0 .6 3 .4 0 .2 3 .0 2 4 .8 2 0 .2 2 1 5 .5 6 1 .9 5 3 5 .1 8 0 .3 0 .1 1 .2 8 .1 4 .5 1 .9 6 .2 0 .3 0 .1 1 .1 7 .5 3 .2 1 .5 5 .7 8 .3 1 0 .4 0 .1 0 .3 1 .2 0 .4 0 .5 0 .6 4 3 .6 0 .6 2 .0 2 .8 1 5 6 .4 1 .7 6 3 .8 6 .7 1 .3 -- 2 5 .9 0 .5 -0 .2 1 7 5 .7 8 .9 7 1 .8 1 8.2 __ 1 7 .8 door b rid g e 3 8 .0 0 .2 0 .1 d e te ctiv e s, law en force- o f f i c i a l s ------------------cooks and 4 6 .7 b arten d - e r s ..................- ...................................... 2 2 9 .0 0 .4 B a r t e n d e r s ............... - ..................... 29.2 -- -- 6 4.9 0 .4 .. 0 .3 0 .7 1 .5 0 .2 2 1.8 0 .6 1 3 .7 0 .4 -- -- 0 .1 0 .7 0 .6 0 .2 9 7.3 1 .1 7 7 .0 0 .6 1 7 .5 0 .4 w o r k e r s ------------ 4 34 .2 0 .2 0 .1 1 .2 1 4 .7 1 2.9 5 7 .2 5 4 .0 2 8 6 .7 7 .2 A i r l i n e s t e w a r d s and s t e w a r d e s s e s ------------------------ 2 .7 6 9 .1 0 .3 1 .2 1 .6 C ooks, except C ounter and O ther and s erv ice A tten dan ts, other w a itresses— h osp ita l See and footn ote 3 5 .1 0 .5 3 7 .6 6 9.8 c l e a n e r s ----- 3 3 .8 s e x t o n s ---------- 5 4.5 at end 2 .7 and i n s t i t u t i o n s ............ Charwom en a n d J a n itors 2 2 .5 fou n ta in w o r k e r s .......................................... W aiters -- p riv a te h o u s e h o l d ------------------------------- 1 .1 protec- and other ment 3 0 .7 0 .8 175.7 t e n d e r s -----------------------------------P olicem en , 0 .7 673 .8 1 0 2 .9 watchm en, keepers, __ 9 4 1 .8 w orkers- t i o n ................................................... Guards, __ 0 .2 2 .7 2 .7 w ork ers-- serv ice fire __ 4 3 .9 cla ssi O p era tiv es P ro te ctiv e 3 2.5 0 .1 la b o re rs, f i e d - ................................................ S ervice 0 .4 4 4 .6 of ta b le 0 .2 -- 0 .1 -- 0 .2 4 .2 0 .5 3 .5 0 .1 1 .3 1 .6 5 .1 4 .5 1 7 .3 2 .5 2 7 .5 1 7 .3 K) T a b le 13. T otal Number o f O ccu p a tion and Jobs Industry (In O ccu p a tio n T otal A g ricu ltu re in New Y o r k D iv is io n , S tate 1960 - - by D e ta ile d C o n tin u ed thousands) M ining M an u fac tu rin g C on stru ction P u b lic T ransporta tio n F in an ce Trade S ervices a d m in is tra tion P ra ctica l S erv ice n u r s e s -------------------- w orkers, elsew h ere Laborers, c l a s s i f i e d ----- 254 .2 f a r m ----------------- 3 6 8 .7 except 1/ The B u r e a u n ica l occu p a tion s of the Labor based n a tio n a l-m a trix D epartm ent of of Labor, _ _ 0 .1 1 9.2 1 9 .0 0 .1 not on 0 .1 7 5 .6 S ta tistics in d u stry -occu p a tion a te ch n ic a l based D iv isio n stu dy on of of th e m ethod R esearch manpower d e scrib e d , and m a trix in 6 .8 7 .3 4 9.5 6 0 .6 6 0 .6 5 2 .5 con ta in s New Y o r k T ech n ica l S ta tistics. 0 .5 6 7 .6 4 S tate. M anpower in te ch n ica l occu p a tion s T ech n ica l New Y o r k w hereas occu p ation s S tate, V o l. I, w ill 2 2 .0 1 6 4 .0 4 .0 , 8 .7 3 1 .2 1 1 .9 th is ta b le be p r o je c t e d S u p p lem en t B, in shows 18 tech in d e p en d en tly New Y o r k S tate R eplacem ent and Job M obility After expected growth or decline in the number of jobs by occupation has been found, the number of deaths and retirements, estimated from working-life tables computed by BLS for the Nation on the basis of 1960 patterns, are added. (See appendix A.) The patterns were applied to Census occupation distributions, by age and sex, for the State and its areas. The resulting rates were applied to an average of the number in the occupation in 1960 at the beginning and in 1975 at the end of the period and, thus, a reasonable approximation can be made of the number of job vacancies that can be expected as a result of deaths and retirements from the work force during 1960-75.32 To complete the picture, an estimate should be made of the number of jobs that will be created in each occupation by job shifts as people move up and down the occupational ladder. This area of job mobility is a most important one in terms of job replacement needs, particularly at lower occupation levels, and a great deal of research is needed to determine its extent. The present state of information available on this subject may result in crude estimates of this factor, possibly limited to occupational groups only. Conclusions The problem of future manpower projections is like a jig-saw puzzle in which many important pieces are missing, particularly when attempts to make such projections for a State and its areas are made. However, a great many pieces can be fitted together and, with better data and techniques, in the future, some of the missing pieces possibly will be found. Although previous national, State, and New York City projections may have been off the mark in absolute dimension, they did point out fairly well the direction of change in the various occupational fields and they have illuminated the problems in the manpower field during the 1960’s. A future publication of the Division of Research and Statistics will present the method of the projection process used for New York State in greater detail. O ther Studies Many other analytical manpower studies33 have been undertaken recently to develop methods and project manpower characteristics at subnational levels. Several of these studies are discussed briefly below. 32 Ibid, p. 14 ff. A major work in the field of regional employment analysis has been published in eight (regional) volumes by the U.S. Department of Commerce34. The informa tion presented in these volumes is designed to provide those concerned with the economy of an area, State and county, with a factual basis for comparing its past performance with that of other areas. The data used are taken from the Censuses of Population for 1940, 1950, and 1960. The technique used by the Commerce Department is built on the assumption that two basic facts about a region’s growth situation are necessary: the growth rate of the industrial m ix (distribution of industries) and, the size and growth of the regional share in this industrial distribution. The rate of growth of a particular national industry is characterized as rapid if it exceeds and slow if it falls short of the growth rate of all national industries combined over the same period. The rate of growth of an industry within a particular region is characterized as rapid if it exceeds and slow if it falls short of the growth rate of that industry nationally. Since both the indus trial-mix and the regional-share factors are at work simultaneously, they may be either mutually reenforcing or mutually offsetting. In some geographic areas both factors will be positive; in others both will be negative. In still other areas one factor will be positive and the other negative35. The Battelle Memorial Institute has completed a study36 for the State of Michigan and the Detroit SMSA. The study develops and uses a complex proce dure of integrated matrices to project the characteristics 33 Analytical manpower studies are based primarily on the analysis of historical data available from ongoing data collection systems. These studies may be contrasted with survey techniques which result in projections based primarily upon employer intentions. 34 Growth Patterns in Em ploym ent by County 1940-50 and 1950-60, U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, 1965, (8 vol.: New England $.45, Mideast $.65, Great Lakes $1.50, Plains $1.75, Southeast $2.75, Southwest $1.50, Rocky Mountain $.75, and Far West $.60.), Super intendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 20402. 35 Although techniques for projecting industry employment are not included in these reports, considerable insight into the dynamics of regional growth can be gained from comparing the structure of growth in regions. 36 Michigan Manpower Study, prepared for the State of Michigan by the Battelle Memorial Institute, Columbus, Ohio, November 1966. 43 of the labor force (industry of employment, occupation of employment, and educational attainment) in 1970, 1975, and 1980. Essentially, the approach involved a reconciliation of the supply of and demand for labor, and used formal educational attainment as the equating variable. The model developed primarily involved the following steps: (1) A projection of future demand for employees by occupation and industry and by educational attain ment. (2) A projection of the future level of educational attainment of the population, by age and sex, and derivations from this projection of the future levels of educational attainment of the labor force37. (3) A recon ciliation of the projected demand for and the supply of labor, in terms of educational attainment. The result was a profile of future employment by industry, occupation, and educational attainment. Industry employment levels were projected mainly by a detailed analysis of key manufacturing industries and an examination of the relationship between the Michigan and U.S. economy, especially as the national economy was projected to 1975. Other techniques that were used included econometric analysis of historical trends, pro jections of employment levels in key industries based upon surveys, extrapolation of historical trends, and similar techniques. Occupational requirements were pro jected by obtaining a special tabulation of occupational employment from the 1960 Census of Population for Michigan and Detroit, and projecting it on the basis of detailed occupational trends at the national level and the trends represented by the 11 major occupational groups. These projected trends were modified in anticipation of technological changes and changes in the organization of individual industries over the projection period. An econometric approach to making projections for small area economies was developed by the Bureau of Business and Economic Research, Georgia State College, Atlanta, Georgia38. The purpose of this study was to develop a model for estimating future rates of migration, future levels of population, income, aggregate employ ment, and broad industry employment for counties or other small geographic areas. Because the time series data available for counties and other small areas was limited, use was made of cross-sectional data from many counties at two points in time. Specifically, the two 37 Population projections were available from a separate source. 38 A Projections M odel for Small Area Economies, Roger L. Burford, Georgia State College, School of Business Administra tion, Bureau of Business and Economic Research, Atlanta, Ga., June 1966. 44 points were consecutive decennial census dates and the areas were 680 counties in the South. The model contains fourteen equations and was designed to reflect the dependence of population, employment, and other such variables in a small area on each other, upon income, the proximity of the area in question to a major city, and other relevant variables. The equations were solved simultaneously and the model provided projec tions for ten-year intervals corresponding to decennial census dates. Economic base studies have been undertaken for a number of counties and cities in recent years. These studies usually divide the local economy into two segments: (1) Firms and individuals serving markets outside the community, export industries; and (2) Firms and individuals serving markets within the community, derivative industries. Export industries are considered the regulators of the level of economic activity and employment in an area. For example, when a local exporting coal mine closes, the impact is reflected in fewer sales of the local merchants to the jobless miners who have less to spend. The example illustrates how derivative activity is affected by changes in basic activity. As employment serving the export market rises or falls, employment serving the local market exhibits a positively correlated movement. Because of this “regula tor” effect of export activity, an economic base study identifies the basic sources of employment and income, and provides a basis for understanding the source and level of all employment and income in a community. The term “multiplier” frequently is used in base studies and refers to the impact that a change in the basic economic activity has on the aggregate level of activity within an economic unit. In the example above, basic dollars flowing into the area from sales of coal are multiplied into even greater local income through the process of spending and re-spending the basic dollars. As basic employment fluctuates, so does total employment change by some multiple, of the change in basic employment, the employment multiplier. likewise, as basic income fluctuates, so does total income change by some multiple, of the change in basic income, the income multiplier. The purpose of one such economic base study39 was to provide guidance for the general economic develop ment of a small county in West Virginia. From the 39 An Economic Profile o f Tucker County, W. V., James H. Land, West Virginia University, College of Commerce, Bureau of Business Research, Economic Development Series No. 10, January 1967. economic base analysis for 1960 came an estimate of the employment multiplier—1.75. The multiplier suggested that for every 100 jobs in basic economic activity there were 75 jobs in derivative or “service” activity. From the theory underlying the multiplier analysis, the assump tion is that for every additional 100 jobs in basic activity created in the area, 75 additional “service” jobs will develop. A step-by-step approach to projecting long-run indus try and occupational requirements in a region was the focus of another study40. Methods of determining whether a local industry’s employment is responsive mainly to local, State, or national demand are discussed, and several techniques for projecting industry employ ment corresponding to these influences are developed. Simple techniques for projecting occupational employ ment—primarily based on the relationship between local and national trends—are included. The importance of being familiar with current and expected changes in the environment of local industries so that judgment can be used to modify historical trends is emphasized in the report. Although the study was undertaken primarily to develop techniques adaptable to the data limitations of a small area, a case study for Silver Bow, Montana is presented in a separate volume. The Bureau of Economic Research of The University of Colorado completed a study41 for the Department of Labor which explores techniques for projecting occupa tional requirements in an SMSA with consideration for data limitations. Six different approaches were exam ined—two “naive” and four “sophisticated”—and the implications of each were evaluated. One “best” approach was selected and developed comprehensively for the Denver SMSA. Projections were made for 20 occupations in 10 industries. In projecting employment, a series of industryoccupational matrices were constructed corresponding to decennial census data. Employment-output functions 40 A Manual for the D evelopm ent o f Estimates o f Future Manpower Requirements for Training Purposes, prepared by the Bureau of Economic and Business Research, Temple University, Philadelphia, Pa., for the Office of Manpower Policy, Evaluation and Research, U.S. Department of Labor, March 1966. In addition, see Projective Models o f Em ploym ent by Industry and by Occupation for Small Areas: A Case Study, also prepared by Temple University, March 1966. 41 M ethodology for Projection o f Occupational Trends in the Denver Standard M etropolitan Statistical Area, prepared for the Office of Manpower Policy, Evaluation, and Research, U.S. Department of Labor, by the Bureau of Economic Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colo., March 1966. were developed for each industry. Output-time relations also were developed and used to make industry-output predictions. Judgments with respect to probable growth patterns of each industry were incorporated at this stage. Finally, the three phases were integrated into a complete model; output projections were related to production functions (output-employment relationships) to project future levels of industry employment which then were coupled with industry-occupational matrices to obtain projected occupational employment levels. In a study42 for the Eastern Massachusetts region estimates of gross product by industry, employment by industry, wages and salaries by industry, and personal income and consumer expenditures were made for 5-year intervals from 1970 to 2000. The purpose of this study was to analyze past trends in development, to anticipate the direction of future development, and to identify specific means and programs for assisting this development. Industry employment estimates were derived by first projecting the region’s constant dollar gross product by industry and then dividing the gross product by the projected value of gross product per worker in each industry. Projections of gross product for both national and local market industry groups were made by using regression techniques and least squares trend extentions of regional shares of markets. For example, gross product in 41 industries serving national markets were made by regressing regional industry gross product against a “demand” variable composed of related national GNP components and a “share” variable made up of the ratio proportion of regional to total national industry gross product. Theoretically, the demand vari able accounted for growth in the industry, and the share variable accounted for the competitive position of the region in the Nation. In general, the assumption was that past trends in the region’s output per worker would continue over the projection period. A variety of techniques were used to project popula tion, labor force, and employment by industry and occupational group to 1975 in a study of potential demand and supply of manpower for the State of Indiana43. Two sets of employment projections were made. They corresponded to different assumptions of 42 Economic Base and Population Study for Eastern Massachusetts: Vol. I, Historical Analysis; Vol. II, Prospects for Economic Growth, Commonwealth of Massachusetts, Metro politan Area Planning Council, 1967. 43 Indiana Manpower Trends to 1975, Indiana Employment Security Division, Research and Statistics, January 1967. 45 growth in GNP at the national level. Multiple regression techniques were used for projecting employment in several industries, which included construction and durable goods manufacturing, as were simple regressions, least squares extensions of historical employment series, and judgmental approaches in other industries. National trends in GNP, and output and output-per-worker by industry were important in determining employment by industry in the State. Employment by occupational group was projected on the basis of changes in employment by industry between 1965 and 1975 and expected changes in the proportion of occupations in each industry group. Occupational proportions were projected on the basis of assumptions about technological and social change which resulted in an increasing proportion of professional, scientific and technical people and a decreasing proportion of laborers. The National Center for Education Statistics of the Office of Education has developed a research paper44 on techniques of projecting vocational education require ments at the State and area level. The paper reports on the development and test of a system to make annual projections of employment in occupations classified by vocational education programs (Occupation Education Requirements Analysis System or OERA). The output of the system is the projected employment for positions in which a particular vocational preparation would be useful. The purpose of the model is to provide guidance for program planning in vocational education. The system is a three-step process. First, employment projections by industry were made.45 Second, informa tion on the proportion of employment in each industry that requires a specific type of vocational preparation was developed. Finally, the result was obtained by multiplying projected employment by industry by the vocational education proportions and summarizing by type of education. The model is applied to a number of regions and the United States. The model’s sensitivity in regard to industry detail and variations in assumptions of eco nomic growth are evaluated. Research will continue on the model to incorporate variable education coefficients which reflect the changing occupational requirements by industry. In addition, the 18,000 non-collegiate titles in the latest Dictionary of Occupational Titles46 have been linked to between 200 and 300 instructional courses in the seven vocational education programs. The incorpora tion of this detail into a comprehensive model applicable at the local level is a main objective of the current research. 44 Occupation Education Requirements Analysis, U.S. 45 In the research paper, projections made by the National Department of Health, Education and Welfare, Office of Planning Association and the Bureau of Labor Statistics are used. 46 U.S. D epartm ent o f Labor, Manpower Administration, Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Division of Dictionary of Occupational Titles, 3d edition, 2 vols., 1965. Operations Analysis, Technical Note No. 47, Dec. 12,1967. 46 ESTIM ATING REPLACEMENT NEEDS Growth in employment requirements is not the only determinant of tomorrow’s manpower needs. The need to replace experienced workers who die, retire, or leave the labor force for other reasons is also an improtant determinant of manpower requirements. About half the new entrants into the labor force during the 1965-75 decade will be needed to replace workers who die, retire, or leave the labor force for other reasons. A third factor that affects future manpower requirements is the trans fer of experienced persons between occupations. Finally, at the State or area level, the occupational gains and losses due to in- and out-migration of workers may be considered, if regional analysis feel that these flows will have a significant impact on future occupational require ments. Although this chapter emphasizes the computa tion of employment requirements stemming from deaths and retirements, references are made to several studies of limited scope which concern the transfer of workers between occupations. D eath and R etirem en t Losses Employment requirements due to deaths and retire ments can be calculated in several ways. A very simple way is to determine the average working life of members of a particular occupation. If this average should, for example, be 40 years for males, then 1/40, or 2Vi percent should retire or die each year. This percentage would be valid if the age distribution in the occupation were uniform i.e., if the number of workers at each age were equal. This situation could occur only if an occupation had not grown for 40 years and had had a steady influx of new young workers each year. The rate could be multiplied by the number of male workers in the occupation to obtain the actual number that would be expected to leave the occupation each year. Since the average working life for females is different than that for males, a similar calculation could be made for female workers in the occupation. (The calculation of the female rate would be slightly more difficult because the working life of females is different than that of males.) Another method that might be used is to project deaths and retirements separately. Appropriate mortality rates are applied either to members of an occupation as a whole, if the same age composition as for the population in the country is assumed or by age when the age composition of the occupation is available. Retirements are estimated on the basis of the present age composi tion of the occupation and an estimate of the number who will reach a predetermined or assumed retirement age at each period in the future, after allowance for deaths. This method would be appropriate if the typical retirement age for members of an occupation were known to be different from that of other occupations. A more refined and simpler technique for estimating deaths and retirements is based on “tables of working life.” These tables are based upon, and are similar to, standard life tables. The standard life table is a statistical or actuarial device for summarizing the mortality experi ence of a population at some particular period of time, i.e., the death rates, by age, over a one-year period.47 A life table starts with a hypothetical group of persons— usually 100,000 born alive—and follows the group through successive ages as it experiences attrition caused by death. The attrition is estimated by applying the death rates of the real population at each age, to the survivors in the hypothetical population. The tables of working life also follow through successive ages the labor force participation experience of the initial group of 100,000 from 14 years of age on; it shows attrition caused by withdrawals from the labor force as well as by mortality. Tables of working life have been set up on an actuarial basis for both males and females, and account for the effects of deaths and retirements (separately) on the work force at each age level. The tables of working life for women take into account the effects of marital status and presence of children, as well as death and retirement. Separations from the labor force of young males in the ages in which labor force participation rates increase from year to year include only separations resulting from death,48 because retirements are not considered significant in these ages.49 For males age 34 and over, 4 7 The working life tables used in this report are based on the mortality rates and labor force participation rates for 1960. 48 In 1960, the labor force participation rate for males peaked at age 34. However, the peak could vary from time to tim e as different observations are made. 49 The process fails to consider disability retirements or the possibility o f any other retirements until age 34, and even then retirements are calculated on the basis o f declines in labor force participation rates as workers age. To the extent that such retirements do take place, the procedure results in some understatement o f separations, but it is not considered to be significant. 47 ages in which labor force participation rates are declining from year to year, separations also include retirements, i.e., all separations from the labor force for reasons other than death. Total separations for males at each age, 34 and over, are estimated on the basis of declines in labor force participation as workers grow older, and mortality. Retirements in these ages are based upon declining labor force participation rates in the consecutive age groups, and they can be calculated by subtracting estimated deaths from total separations. The table of working life for males, based on mortality and labor force participa tion rates for 1960, is included at the end of this chapter.50 Based on the tables of working life, the probability of total separations from the labor force from one age to any later age can be stated as the ratio of net separations between two age intervals to the number in the labor force in the base year. For young male workers, all separations are deaths, which can be derived by subtract ing the number of an original 100,000 males born alive who are still living in year X + 1 from those who were alive in year X. For males 34 years old and over, net separations can be derived by subtracting the number still in the labor force in year X + 1 from the number in the labor force in year X. For the latter example, retirements equal net separations minus deaths. The following tabulation presents a simplified summary of this procedure: Number Living of 1-Year Separation Rate Year of 100,00 Born Alive (Per 1,000 in Labor Force) Age ---------------------------Population Labor Force Total Deaths Retirem ents 1 1.8 24 . . . 94,717 88,214 1 1.8 25 . . . 94,549 88,912 3 5.8 4 1.0 44 . . . 89,739 86,419 2 6.8 45 . . . 89,221 85,831 1 94,717 - 94,549 = 168 = .0018 94,717 94,717 2 8 6,419-85,831 = 588 = .0068 86,419 86,419 3 89,739 - 89,221 = 518 = .0058 89,739 89,739 4 .0068 -.00 5 8 = .0010 Source: Tables o f Working Life (1960), table 20. The net separation rate for each single year of age or for a group of years, 5 or 10, for example, can be developed separately by the above technique. These separation rates for each age group then can be applied 48 to the number of persons employed, or in the labor force, in each age group to derive an estimate of the number of persons who will die or retire in the specified period. Table 14 illustrates the age specific separation rates for males, based on the 1960 table of working life, for selected age groups, for selected periods of time. The procedure illustrated in table 15 estimates the separations of carpenters from 1960 to 1970. No allowance was made for deaths and retirements of new entrants into the carpenter occupation after 1960, since the assumption is that the great majority of new entrants will be young persons with very low mortality rates and few retirements. To the extent that some new entrants during this decade actually will die or retire, the separations calculated are understated. A similar, but more involved, method can be used to estimate separation rates for females. Once an adult male enters the labor force he usually remains in the labor force until retirement or death. This situation is not true for most women. Women may withdraw temporarily from the labor force because of marriage, presence of children in the home, etc. Many of these women, however, re-enter the labor force in later years after their children reach school age or as a result of their husband’s death, etc. Therefore, tables of working life for females take into consideration temporary, as well as permanent withdrawals or retirements from the labor force. Table 16, derived from tables of working life for women, shows the total separation rates for women by selected age groups and the total number separated in a single year based on these rates and the age distribution of the female labor force in 1960. It also illustrates the number of separations related to marriage, presence of children, death, and age retirement. Table 17 provides an estimate of the entrance (accessions) of women into the labor force because of age51, children reaching school age, and loss of husband. If accessions by age are subtracted from total separations by age (table 16) a net separation estimate for women considerably lower than gross separations is derived. For total females in the United States (according to 1960 50 The tables o f working life for males and females in this report are for the Nation and are for all males and all females. Tables could be developed on an urban-rural or white-nonwhite break if so desired. In addition, tables o f working life could be developed for many o f the States if the expertise and resources were available to do it. However, for several reasons discussed on p. States and areas should use the national tables o f working life in estimating occupational replacement needs. 51 The rates include consideration for those wom en who leave the labor force after marriage and return at a later tim e. T a b le 1 4 . A ge S p e c i f i c S e p a r a t io n R a te s f o r M a le s , I 9 6 0 1 / A ge g r o u p s A n n u al r a te 5 -y e a r r a te .0 0 1 2 8 .0 0 1 8 1 .0 0 1 7 1 .0 0 2 2 7 .0 0 4 0 1 .0 0 5 8 4 .0 1 0 3 1 1 4 -1 9 y e a r s ----------------------------------------------2 0 - 2 4 y e a r s ----------------------------------------------2 5 -2 9 y e a r s ----------------------------------------------3 0 - 3 4 y e a r s --------------------------------------------- 3 5 -3 9 y e a r s ----------------------------------------------4 0 - 4 4 y e a r s ----------------------------------------------4 5 -4 9 y e a r s ----------------------------------------------5 0 - 5 4 y e a r s ----------- -----------------------------------5 5 -5 9 y e a r s ----------------------------------------------6 0 - 6 4 y e a r s ----------------------------------------------65 y e a r s and o v e r ----------------------------------- .0 3 2 3 2 .0 9 6 2 5 13464 .0 0 7 6 2 .0 0 8 8 2 .0 0 9 0 3 .014& 5 .0 2 3 1 0 .0 3 5 3 7 .0 6 8 2 4 .1 1 6 7 3 .1 9 6 1 4 .5 1 5 4 2 .5 1 2 7 3 3 5 - 4 4 y e a r s ----------------------------------------------4 5 - 5 4 y e a r s ----------------------------------------------- .0 0 4 9 1 .0 1 5 0 4 .0 2 9 1 7 .0 9 1 6 2 .0 2 0 1 2 0 -y e a r r a te 1 5 -y e a r r a te .0 1 6 3 9 .0 1 7 7 8 .0 2 3 7 5 .0 3 7 6 1 .0 5 7 6 6 .1 0 1 1 9 .1 7 7 0 0 .2 8 9 9 8 .6 1 0 4 6 .7 3 2 8 5 .7 9 5 4 0 .0 2 5 1 9 .0 3 2 3 6 .0 4 6 3 0 .0 7 1 6 5 .1 2 1 9 6 .2 0 6 1 1 .3 3 8 4 2 .6 5 5 9 3 .7 8 5 2 5 .8 6 9 5 2 .9 3 3 4 6 .0 7 9 1 7 .2 3 1 4 9 .1 6 3 5 4 .4 9 1 5 7 10 1 / The a g e s p e c i f i c s e p a r a t io n r a t e s can be d e v e lo p e d t o a g r e e w it h any a v a i l a b l e o c c u p a t io n by a g e d a t a . F o r e x a m p le , c e n s u s o f p o p u la t io n o c c u p a t io n by a g e d a t a a r e u s u a l ly in 5 - y e a r g r o u p in g s , b u t b e tw e e n th e a g e s o f 35 and 5 4 th e y a r e in 1 0 - y e a r g r o u p in g s . T a b le 1 5 . E s tim a te d N a t io n a l 1 - and 1 0 - y e a r S e p a r a t io n s f o r M ale C a r p e n te r s A ge g r o u p 1 9 6 0 T o ta l 1 4 -1 9 y e a r s -------------------------2 0 -2 4 y e a r s -------------------------2 5 -2 9 y e a r s -------------------------3 0 - 3 4 y e a r s -------------------------3 5 - 4 4 y e a r s -------------------------4 5 - 5 4 y e a r s -------------------------5 5 -5 9 y e a r s -------------------------6 0 -6 4 y e a r s -------------------------65 y e a r s and o v e r ------------- E m p loyed m a le s I96 0 ^ 1 -y e a r S e p a r a t io n s R a te 10 -y e a r 8 1 6 ,1 9 5 1 7 ,8 4 2 5 3 ,4 1 6 7 0 ,4 8 1 8 8 ,4 7 0 2 1 2 ,5 6 8 1 9 3 ,0 8 4 7 7 ,8 5 9 5 7 ,3 5 8 4 5 ,1 1 7 <------------------------------------ .0 0 1 2 8 .0 0 1 8 1 .0 0 1 7 1 .0 0 2 2 7 .0 0 4 9 1 .0 1 5 0 4 .0 3 2 3 2 .0 9 6 2 5 .1 3 4 6 4 .0 1 6 3 9 .0 1 7 7 8 .0 2 3 7 4 .0 3 7 6 1 .0 7 9 1 7 .2 3 1 4 9 .6 1 0 4 6 .7 3 2 8 5 .7 9 5 4 0 1 -y e a r Number -y e a r 1 8 ,4 0 4 1 9 3 ,2 2 0 23 95 292 950 1 ,6 7 4 3 ,3 2 7 1 6 ,8 2 9 4 4 ,6 9 7 4 7 ,5 3 0 4 2 ,0 3 5 3 5 ,8 8 6 121 201 1 ,0 4 4 2 ,9 0 4 2 ,5 1 6 5 ,5 2 1 6 ,0 7 4 S o u r c e : A ge d i s t r i b u t i o n - - U . S . B u rea u o f C e n s u s , U .S . C e n su s o f P o p u l a t i o n , 1 9 6 0 . C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . U n ite d S t a t e s Sum m ary, F in a l R e p o r t P C (1 )-1 D . 10 D e t a i le d 49 T a b le 1 6 . E s tim a te d A nnual Number and R a te o f S e p a r a tio n s f o r th e F em ale L abor F o r c e : 19 60 (I n th o u s a n d s ) A ge grou p T o ta l r a te Separa tio n num ber 1 4 -1 9 y e a r s ----------2 0 -2 4 y e a r s ----------2 5 -2 9 y e a r s ----------3 0 -3 4 y e a r s ----------3 5 -3 9 y e a r s ----------4 0 -4 4 y e a r s ----------4 5 -4 9 y e a r s ----------5 0 -5 4 y e a r s ----------5 5 -5 9 y e a r s ----------6 0 -6 4 y e a r s ----------65 y e a r s and o v e r --------------------- S e p a r a tio n s r e l a t e d to : B ir t h Age D ea th of M a r ria g e R a te Number c h i l d r en R a te Number R a te Number R a te Number 84 1119 23272 T o ta l 1/ L ab or fo r c e 1 9 60 2073 25 42 1955 2180 2627 2773 2879 2349 1797 1196 .0 6 3 4 o 1066 .0 3 9 3 901 .1 4 1 1 131 271 77 27 .0 1 2 2 .0 0 8 4 .0 1 8 8 .0 2 6 9 .0 3 7 7 .0 6 4 5 .1 0 7 9 .0 1 4 0 .0 1 5 9 .0 0 3 1 29 40 6 52 78 89 116 129 .0 0 1 5 (1 ) (1 ) (1 ) (1 ) (1 ) 5 4 (1 ) (1 ) (1 ) (1 ) (1 ) 127 (1 ) (1 ) 22 .0 0 2 2 44 0 .0 4 8 8 .0 9 0 0 .0 3 5 3 .0 0 8 8 .0 0 5 1 .0 0 2 6 .0 0 0 6 (1 ) (1 ) (1 ) (1 ) 101 229 69 19 13 7 138 .0 0 0 6 .0 0 0 7 .0 0 0 9 457 1 2 2 3 5 .0 0 1 2 (1 ) (1 ) (1 ) (1 ) (1 ) .0 1 3 4 (1 ) (1 ) (1 ) (1 ) (1 ) 37 64 74 99 (1 ) (1 ) (1 ) .0 0 1 8 .0 0 2 8 .0 0 4 2 .0 0 6 3 .0 0 9 2 .0 1 4 3 15 17 17 .0 3 1 4 .0 5 5 3 .0 9 3 6 112 (1 ) .0 6 3 0 56 .0 7 8 1 71 2 8 12 .0 2 2 1 Amount n o t s i g n i f i c a n t . N o te : T o t a ls may n o t add du e to r o u n d in g . S o u r c e : Work L i f e E x p e c ta n c y and T r a in in g N eed s o f Women, M anpower R e p o r t N o. 1 2 . U .S . D ep a rtm en t o f L a b o r , M anpower A d m in is t r a t io n . T a b le 1 7 . E s tim a te d A nnual Number and R a te o f A c c e s s io n s to th e F em a le L ab or F o r c e : 1960 (I n th o u s a n d s ) A ge grou p 1960 p o p u la t io n T o ta l 64961 1 4 -1 9 y e a r s ------2 0 -2 4 y e a r s ------2 5 -2 9 y e a r s ------3 0 -3 4 y e a r s ------3 5 -3 9 y e a r s ------4 0 -4 4 y e a r s ------4 5 -4 9 y e a r s ------5 0 - 5 4 y e a r s ------5 5 -5 9 y e a r s ------6 0 -6 4 y e a r s ------65 y e a r s and o v e r ----------------- 7934 5520 55 37 6111 6419 59 18 5554 49 32 4411 3727 T o ta l a c c e s s io n s R a te Number Age R a te Number 1296 .0 8 9 8 .0 3 2 3 .0 0 7 6 .0 1 1 4 .0 1 5 0 .0 1 4 4 .0 8 9 8 .0 3 1 6 .0 0 2 5 .0 0 0 7 .0 0 1 7 86 .0 0 0 1 .0 0 6 4 .0 0 3 8 .0 0 2 1 8 (1 ) (1 ) 8898 91 6 712 178 42 69 96 57 32 16 .0 1 0 2 A c c e s s io n s r e l a t e d to : C h ild r e n r e a c h in g L o ss o f h u sb an d sch o o l age R a te Number R a te Number j 712 174 14 4 11 1 (1 ) (1 ) (1 ) (1 ) (1 ) (1 ) (1 ) (1 ) (1 ) (1 ) 309 (1 ) .0 0 0 7 .0 0 5 1 .0 1 0 7 .0 1 2 5 .0 1 2 6 .0 0 7 7 .0 0 2 8 (1 ) 4 28 65 80 75 43 14 (1 ) (1 ) (1 ) (1 ) .0 0 0 1 71 (1 ) (1 ) (1 ) (1 ) .0 0 0 8 .0 0 1 7 .0 0 2 5 .0 0 3 7 .0 0 3 6 .0 0 2 1 8 (1 ) T o t a ls may n o t add d ue to r o u n d in g . S o u r c e : Work L i f e E x p e c ta n c y and T r a in in g N eed s o f Women, M anpower R e p o r t N o. 1 2 , U .S . D ep a rtm en t o f L a b o r , Manpower A d m in is t r a t io n . 50 10 14 18 16 IV A m ounts n o t s i g n i f i c a n t . N o te : (1 ) (1 ) (1 ) (1 ) 5 information) the total gross separation rate for females would be about 4.8 percent, compared with a net separation rate of about 3.2 percent.52 To estimate gross separations for females in a particular occupation, the age specific total separation rates found in table 16 would be applied to the number of workers in each age group. Table 18 illustrates a calculation of the annual gross separations for secre taries, stenographers, and typists—110,758 (or 5.1 per cent of the total). If training needs were being calculated instead of manpower requirements, gross separations could be reduced to the extent that qualified secretaries return from outside the labor force by applying the accession rates in table 17 to the approximate age groups, and subtracting the resultant from gross separa tions.53 Separation rates for females have been developed for 1 year only (see tables 16 and 17), due to the characteristics of the participation of females in the labor force. Occupational replacement needs for females for 5, 10, or 15 year age groups can be approximated by multiplying the 1-year rates by the respective number of years; the assumption is that new entrants into the occupation will maintain the 1960 age distribution. 52 Gross Separations minus (thousands) 84 (marriage) 44 0 (birth o f children) Accessions equals (thousands) Net Separations (thousands) 71 Goss o f husband) 309 (children reaching school age) 13 131 595 (deaths and retirements) 1119 Total 380 Total 739 Total The total separation rate for females is com puted as follows: total number o f separations 1,119 = .0481 total labor force 23,272 The net separation rate is com puted as follows: net number o f separations 739 = .0318 total labor force 23,272 53 From a training point o f view, however, wom en who have been out o f the labor force for several years may need significant refresher training before taking over the duties o f an occupation at which they were em ployed 10 to 15 years before. Moreover, this adjustment assumes that female secretaries, stenographers, and typists have the same temporary retirement patterns as female workers as a whole. Limitations Several assumptions underlie the development and use of separation rates. One significant assumption is that mortality trends and retirement patterns do not differ by occupation. This statement is not true, however. Differences in the nature of work, the expo sure of workers to disabilizing work environments, the coverage and provision of pension plans, the extent of opportunities for employment, and many other factors influence retirement patterns and mortality trends among occupations. For example, the retirement pattern of physicians, who often practice until old age, is very different from that of linemen or roofers, who withdraw from these occupations at a young age because of the physical requirements of these jobs. Similarly, the use of overall separation rates for women assumes that the characteristics of marriage, presence of children in the home, etc., have the same affect on all females regardless of occupation. Women who have the greatest amount of education and, thus, who are concentrated in certain occupations, however, have higher labor force participa tion rates than the average. Their temporary withdrawal from the labor force, therefore, is much less certain than for women with less education. The national separation rates are given in appendix A to this volume. For several occupations, the number of separations derived by using these rates has been compared with data from other sources. For example, for several skilled building trades, the U.S. Department of Labor has collected statistics on the number of journeymen per 1,000 who become unavailable for work because of death, permanent disability, or retirement during a 12-month period. In general, the average rates based on these surveys were very similar to the com puted death and retirement rates derived by using tables of working life. Rates for metal trades occupations developed in a 1957 study of the New York State Department of Labor were very similar to those com puted by the methods described in this chapter.54 On the basis of these evaluations, these rates are quite representative of the true rates for most occupations. In the absence of more comprehensive data for individual occupations, the tables of working life provide a systematic method for obtaining an estimate of the general magnitude of separations resulting from deaths and retirements. Regional analysts, however, should 54 M anpow er in S elected M etal Crafts, N ew Y ork State, New York State Department o f Labor, Division o f Research and Statistics, Publication N o. R -1 07,1959. 51 adjust separation rates judgmentally, however, if retire ment patterns (or mortality rates) of particular occupa tions are known to differ from that of the general population in a State or area. Another limitation of the overall technique relates to the timeliness of age distribution data for occupations. A comprehensive source of this data is the decennial census of population—the most recent was for the year 1960. The age distribution of occupations changes over time, however, and to the extent that the 1960 age distribu tion does not reflect the current or anticipated age distribution of an occupation, the estimate of employ ment requirements will be affected. Regional analysts may want to modify separation rates somewhat to take account of recent apparent changes in the age distribu tion of an occupation. For example, if an occupation has been growing very rapidly in a State or area since the period for which age distribution data is available, perhaps the derived separations should be lowered slightly to take account of the influx of young people into the occupation. Conversely, regional analysts may increase the derived separations slightly if an occupation has shown little growth or decline in the period since comprehensive age distribution data become available. How to develop separation rates for a State or area States and areas can develop in several ways estimates of manpower requirements arising from the need to re place experienced workers who die, retire, or who other wise withdraw from the labor force over the projection period. The simplest way is to apply the national rates in appendix A for each occupation to the midpoint of the appropriate occupational projection for the State or area. The assumptions underlying the use of national separation rates for a State or area are: (l)The age distribution for the occupation in a State or area is the same as in the Nation, and (2) the mortality trends and retirement patterns by age within the State or area are the same as in the Nation. The latter assumption is more valid than the former. Mortality trends by age are probably quite similar across the Nation. For example, life insurance companies use one set of life tables for all sections of the country. Although retirement patterns (labor force participation rates) do vary somewhat across the country because of, for example, opportunities for employment and local customs, in general, participation rates do not differ greatly, (see tabulation above). 52 Labor Force Participation Rates by Age and Sex, 1960 Males Females 25 55 Total 14 25 55 Total to14 to Area to to and 144 24 54 and 144 24 54 over over United States. 77.4 57.1 94.7 57.3 34.5 32.5 41.4 22.1 New York. . . 78.1 52.6 94.8 61.7 37.0 37.443.2 24.9 California. . . 79.5 63.0 95.1 56.2 36.1 32.143.6 22.8 Source: “ Labor Force Projections By State, 1970 and 1980.” Special Labor Force Report No. 87, Reprinted from the “ M onthly Labor Review,” October 1967, U.S. Departm ent of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. In terms of the first assumption, the age distribution of an occupation probably differs somewhat between States. State and area analysts who are interested in estimating local separations by using the national rates in appendix A should compare the national age distribution for an occupation with the age distribution in the State, and perhaps adjust the rate up or down slightly on the basis of the comparison. For example, if the ages of plumbers in Nebraska in 1960 were generally older than in the Nation, perhaps for Nebraska a separation rate of 2.1 percent instead of a national rate of 1.8 percent might be used. A second technique, recommended by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is to use the age-specific rates derived from the national tables of working life, table 14 for males and table 16 for females, and apply them to the age distribution of occupations in the State. This technique takes account of differences in the age distributions between States and the Nation for occupa tions. Table 19 below provides an example of applying the national annual separation rate for males to the age distribution of carpenters in New York and California. Although there were about one-quarter more carpenters in California than in New York, only about onefourteenth more job openings would be expected to arise annually from deaths and retirements of employed carpenters in California than in New York. The em ployed carpenters in California tend to be younger than those in New York (or in the Nation) and this fact is in dicated in the derived separation rates. 18,404 United States 816,195 = 2.25 1,406 New York 57,951 = 2.43 1,500 California 73,797 = 2.03 T a b le 18. E s tim a te d 1-y e a r S e p a ra tio n s S te n o g raph ers, and E m p lo ye d Age g ro u p 2 3 5 ,4 0 7 4 5 6 ,1 4 0 2 5 6 ,2 6 4 2 2 6 ,2 7 8 4 7 0 ,3 1 1 3 4 4 ,9 0 0 1 0 4 ,6 5 7 5 3 ,2 3 7 3 1 ,4 4 7 T a b le 1960 19. E s tim a te d 1-Y e a r C a r p e n t e r s , New Y o r k 1960 New Y o r k C a lifo rn ia T o t a l ------------- -------------------- -------------------- 5 7 ,9 5 1 7 3 ,7 9 7 1 4 - 1 9 y e a r s --------------------------------------------------2 0 - 2 4 y e a r s --------------------------------------------------2 5 - 2 9 y e a r s --------------------------------------------------3 0 - 3 4 y e a r s --------------------------------------------------3 5 - 4 4 y e a r s --------------------------------------------------4 5 - 5 4 y e a r s ------------- -------------- ----------------------5 5 - 5 9 y e a r s --------------------------------------------------6 0 - 6 4 y e a r s --------------------------------------------------65 y e a r s a n d o v e r --------------------------------- 872 3 ,4 8 4 5 ,6 2 7 6 ,9 6 1 1 4 ,3 8 7 1 2 ,3 3 8 6 ,0 6 4 4 ,8 4 3 3 ,3 7 5 1 ,4 0 6 5 ,2 0 4 6 ,5 3 6 7 ,9 2 5 2 0 ,9 0 4 1 7 ,4 8 0 6 ,4 7 4 4 ,5 5 1 3 ,3 1 7 .0 6 3 4 . 1066 .0 3 9 3 .0 1 2 2 .0 1 3 7 .0 3 1 9 .0 6 4 5 .1 0 7 9 .1 4 1 1 1 1 4 ,9 2 5 4 8 ,6 2 5 1 0 ,0 7 1 2 ,7 6 1 6 ,4 4 3 1 1 ,0 0 2 6 ,7 5 0 5 ,7 4 4 4 ,4 3 7 M ale Num ber o f S e p a ra tio n s e p a ra tio n s New Y o r k C a lifo rn ia ra te .0 0 1 2 8 .0 0 1 8 1 .0 0 1 7 1 .0 0 2 2 7 .0 0 4 9 1 .0 1 5 0 4 .0 3 2 3 2 .0 9 6 2 5 .1 3 4 6 4 C ensus, U .S . Census and C a l i f o r n i a , 34D, s e p a ra tio n s 1 1 0 ,7 5 8 S e p a ra tio n s f o r and C a l i f o r n i a E m p lo y e d m a le s d i s t r i b u t i o n - U .S . B ure au o f New Y o r k , F i n a l R e p o r t P C ( 1 ) - Num ber o f S e p a ra tio n ra te s 1 4 - 1 9 y e a r s -----------------------------------------------------------------2 0 - 2 4 y e a r s -----------------------------------------------------------------2 5 - 2 9 y e a r s --------------------------------------------------- -------------3 0 - 3 4 y e a r s ---------------------- -------------------- ----------------------3 5 - 4 4 y e a r s -----------------------------------------------------------------4 5 - 5 4 y e a r s -----------------------------------------------------------------5 5 - 5 9 y e a r s ------------------------------------------------------------------6 0 - 6 4 y e a r s -----------------------------------------------------------------6 5 y e a r s a n d o v e r ------------------------------------------------ S e c re ta rie s fe m a le s 2 , 1 7 8 ,6 4 1 Sources: Age C h a ra c te ris tic s , F e m a le 1960 T o t a l ............................................. ....................... Age g ro u p of T y p is ts 1 ,4 0 6 1 ,5 0 0 1 6 10 16 71 186 196 466 454 2 9 11 18 1 03 263 209 438 447 o f P o p u la tio n 1 9 6 0 , D e ta ile d F i n a l R e p o rt P C ( 1 ) - 6D. 53 States and areas that have the time, the resources, the expertise, and the data sources can develop their own tables of working life. From these tables, age specific separation rates can be computed similar to those developed by BLS for the Nation and described above. This technique is involved technically and the derived rates for States probably would not add the degree of precision to the estimate of manpower requirements worth the expenditure of time and resources. Neverthe less, decisions about such computations should be made by the respective State or area analysts who are familiar with local data sources and the technical and financial resources available. by the U.S. Office of Education. Two detailed studies of teacher turnover (1957-58 and 1959-60) determined the number of teachers who left their positions between the beginning of one school year and the next.55 The separation rate for elementary school teachers based on this study was 8.1 percent. About one-half of these separations were deaths and withdrawals from the labor force, and the remainder were transfers to other occupa tions. A monumental study56 of mobility was made by the Social Science Research Council. Ten-year work histories were collected from workers in sample households in each of 6 large cities. In all, 13,000 work history schedules were collected. Each job held by the workers were classified by occupation and occupation group. Transfers to Other Occupations Thus, for each person, one could obtain the number of job changes and occupational changes made. By combin Transfer from one occupation to another occupation ing the data, a measure of the incidence and the pattern is an additional factor that can be considered when of movement out of an occupation was obtained. estimates of future manpower or training requirements Several other attempts have been made to measure are being developed. In some occupations, the transfer the rate of movement out of an occupation. Two studies rate may be as high as the death and retirement rate. analyzed net occupational mobility57 by applying In general, workers tend to move from less skilled to cohort analysis to the data from successive censuses of more skilled occupations. For example, a factory opera population supplemented by the monthly labor force tor may become a foreman, and move from a semiskilled survey.58 “Model Cohort Work Experience Tables” were to a skilled classification; similarly, a mechanic may designed for major occupational groups. The primary transfer to a technician job, and shift from the craftsmen purpose of the study was to determine (1) the net to the professional, technical, and kindred workers classification. This type of transfer is usually the result of long experience, often supplemented by additional 55 Teacher Turnover in the Public Schools, 1957-58, U.S. training. Office OE-23002, Circular 608,1959, and Teacher Unfortunately, comprehensive data are not available Turnoverof Education, in Public Elementary and Secondary Schools, 1959-60, on the rate of transfers between occupations. Most of OE-23002-60, Circular 675,1963. the data available stems from selected sample studies of Gladys L. Palmer, Labor Mobility in 6 Cities, New York, work histories collected from individuals. One such Social56Science Research Council, 1954. study, Postcensal Study o f Professional and Technical Personnel, followed up 2 years after the 1960 census 57 “A Note on Occupational Mobility for White and persons classified in science, engineering, and other Nonwhite Males, 1950 to 1965,” A. J. Jaffe and J. B. Gordon, The N ew York Statistician , December 1966. This study defines professional and technical occupations. The purpose of net as the following: “The estimates of net occupa the study was to determine the proportion of workers tionalmobility movement were derived by following an age cohort of who changed occupations over the 2-year period. For men from one census to another. For example, let us example, the annual transfer rate for engineers was suppose that there were period 1,000 men aged 30 to 34 years in service estimated at 1.6 percent, for life scientists, 2.6 percent, occupations in 1950. By 1960 these men were aged 40 to 44. Let us assume that 50 of these men have died, leaving 950 alive. for technicians, 3 percent. If we find that the 1960 census reports 1,100 men in service Another study, Career Patterns o f Former Appren occupations aged 40 to 44, we assume that there was a net tices , (U.S. Department of Labor, Bulletin T-147, March in-movement of 150 men into this occupation group 1959), provides information on occupational transfers (1,100-950= 150).” for several craft occupations. For example, more than 10 Mobility in the United States,” A. J. Jaffe percent of the apprentice carpenters who completed the and R.58 O.“Occupational Carleton, New York, King Crown Press, 1954 and “A apprenticeship program in 1950 were in other occupa Note on Occupational Mobility for White and Nonwhite Males, tions in 1956. Moreover, estimates of losses to teaching 1950 to 1965,” A. J. Jaffe and J. B. Gordon, The N ew York occupations have been developed from surveys prepared Statistician, December 1966. 54 occupational mobility that actually occurred; (2) the occupational distribution of new entrances into the labor force; and (3) the occupational distribution of retirements from the labor force. The net mobility estimate was the difference between the number of persons moving into and out of an occupation. Recently, work has proceeded on a white-nonwhite break between 1950 and 1965. Recently, the Bureau of Labor Statistics undertook a study of occupational mobility. This study adds to an earlier one made on the shifts of workers from one employer to another during 1961 that yielded some valuable insights into the mobility of men and women by age and occupational group. The new study focuses on the occupational shifts of workers in major occupa tional groups between January 1965 and January 1966.59 Although little comprehensive data is available to estimate changes in occupational requirements due to transfers between occupations, this weakness in the technique is not considered greatly significant for the planning of education and training programs. Generally, estimates of occupational requirements based on expected growth and replacements are adequate for most planning purposes. Most States or areas do not have the available resources to train workers to fill all the anticipated job openings in occupations. Moreover, to do so probably would be wasteful because many workers pick up an occupation informally, for example, and learn by observing or working at various aspects of a trade until most or all have been learned. Indications are that many workers have learned the skills of their trade informally.60 The fact that workers are not trained to fill all anticipated job openings provides some flexibility in the future supply of workers to be filled by the transfer of workers between occupations. There are other ways also by which employers can overcome a shortage of skills. Depending upon the extent of under supply in an occupation, local employers will tend to find ways to “make do” with the available skills through, for example, in plant education, job redesign and the use of job aides, general upgrading, reorganiza tion of work, and hiring outside the geographic area. See, Formal Occupational Training o f A du lt Workers, 59 “Occupational M obility o f E m ployed Workers,** Special 60 Manpower Automation Research Monograph No. 2, U.S. Depart Labor Force R eport No. 84 reprinted from the M onthly Labor ment of Labor, Manpower Administration, Office of Manpower, R eview , June 1967, U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Automation and Training, December 1964. 55 Ln Os T a b le (1) Yea rs t o x +1 lx ^wx (In 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 y e a rs -y e a rs -y e a rs -y e a rs -y e a rs -y e a rs -yea rs-y e a rs -y e a rs -y e a rs -y e a rs -y e a rs -y e a rs -y e a rs -y e a rs -y e a rs -y e a rs -y e a rs -y e a rs -y e a rs -y e a rs -y e a rs -y e a rs -y e a rs -y e a r.s -y e a rs -y e a rs -y e a rs -y e a rs -y e a rs -y e a rs -y e a rs -- 9 6 ,1 4 5 9 6 ,0 6 0 9 5 ,9 6 0 9 5 ,8 4 2 9 5 ,7 1 0 9 5 ,5 6 6 9 5 ,4 1 1 9 5 ,2 4 4 9 5 ,0 6 9 9 4 ,8 9 2 9 4 ,7 1 7 9 4 ,5 4 9 9 4 ,3 8 6 9 4 ,2 2 7 9 4 ,0 6 9 9 3 ,9 0 8 9 3 ,7 4 1 9 3 ,5 6 7 9 3 ,3 8 6 9 3 ,1 9 5 9 2 ,9 9 3 9 2 ,7 7 7 9 2 ,5 4 6 9 2 ,2 9 7 9 2 ,0 2 4 9 1 ,7 2 7 9 1 ,4 0 1 9 1 ,0 4 2 9 0 ,6 4 7 9 0 ,2 1 5 8 9 ,7 3 9 8 9 ,2 2 1 wx year of 1 4 ,8 0 6 1 9 ,7 8 8 3 1 ,2 8 3 4 5 ,0 4 6 6 2 ,0 2 0 7 3 ,1 0 8 7 9 ,0 9 6 8 2 ,1 9 6 8 4 ,5 1 6 8 6 ,1 6 2 8 7 ,3 2 9 8 8 ,2 1 4 8 8 ,9 1 2 8 9 ,5 1 6 9 0 ,0 2 4 9 0 ,4 3 3 9 0 ,7 4 1 9 0 ,7 6 0 9 0 ,6 7 8 9 0 ,5 8 6 9 0 ,4 4 6 9 0 ,1 7 9 8 9 ,8 6 2 8 9 ,5 2 8 8 9 ,1 7 1 8 8 ,7 9 2 8 8 ,3 8 5 8 7 ,9 4 7 8 7 ,4 7 4 8 6 ,9 6 7 8 6 ,4 1 9 8 5 ,8 3 1 T a b le of (5) A c c e s s i o n s .to the la b o r f o r c e (p e r 1 ,0 0 0 in p o p u la tio n ) 1000 Ax M a le s , 196 0 (6) (8) (7) S e p a ra tio n s from the la b o r fo rc e (p e r 1 ,0 0 0 in la b o r f o r c e ) Due t o Du e t o Due t o a l l causes re tire m e n t Death 1 0 0 0 Q Xr 1 0 0 0 QS 1 0 0 0 Qd (B etw ee n y e a r s age) 1 5 .4 2 0 .6 3 2 .6 4 7 .0 6 4 .8 7 6 .5 8 2 .9 8 6 .3 8 8 .9 9 0 .8 9 2 .2 9 3 .3 9 4 .2 9 5 .0 9 5 .7 9 6 .3 9 6 .8 9 7 .0 9 7 .1 9 7 .2 9 7 .3 9 7 .2 9 7 .1 9 7 .0 9 6 .9 9 6 .8 9 6 .7 9 6 .6 9 6 .5 9 6 .4 9 6 .3 9 6 .2 W o rk in g L i f e , 5 2 .0 1 1 9 .9 1 4 3 .8 1 7 7 .8 1 1 6 .8 6 3 .9 3 4 .0 2 6 .0 1 8 .9 1 3 .9 1 1 .0 9 .0 8 .0 7 .0 6 .0 5 .0 2 .0 1 .0 1 .0 .6 ---- -------- .9 1 .0 1 .2 1 .4 1 .5 1 .6 1 .8 1 .9 1 .8 1 .8 1 .8 1 .7 1 .7 1 .7 1 .7 1 .8 1 .9 1 .9 2 .0 2 .2 3 .0 3 .5 3 .7 4 .0 4 .3 4 .6 5 .0 5 .4 5 .8 6 .3 6 .8 7 .4 of .9 1 .0 1 .2 1 .4 1 .5 1 .6 1 .8 1 .9 1 .8 1 .8 1 .8 1 .7 1 .7 1 .7 1 .7 1 .8 1 .9 1 .9 2 .0 2 .2 2 .3 2 .5 2 .7 3 .0 3 .2 3 .6 3 .9 4 .3 4 .8 5 .3 5 .8 6 .3 (9) ( 10) A v e ra g e number o f re m a in in g y e a rs o f Labor fo rc e L ife p a rtic ip a tio n o ex Od) x of (4) ( 2) (3) N u m b e r l i v i n g o f 1 0 0 ,0 0 0 b o r n a l i v e In la b o r fo rc e P e rcent o f In p o p u la tio n P o p u la tio n N um be r 20. (A t age) .. ---------------.7 1 .0 1 .0 1 .0 1 .1 1 .0 1 .1 1 .1 1 .0 1 .0 1 .0 1 .1 5 5 .4 5 4 .4 5 3 .5 5 2 .5 5 1 .6 5 0 .7 4 9 .8 4 8 .8 4 7 .9 4 7 .0 4 6 .1 4 5 .2 4 4 .3 43 ; 4 4 2 .4 4 1 .5 4 0 .6 3 9 .6 3 8 .7 3 7 .8 3 6 .9 3 5 .9 3 5 .0 3 4 .1 3 3 .2 3 2 .3 3 1 .4 3 0 .5 2 9 .7 2 8 .8 2 7 .9 2 7 .1 b e g in n in g o f y e a r o f age) 4 8 .4 4 7 .4 4 6 .4 4 5 .5 4 4 .5 4 3 .6 4 2 .7 4 1 .8 4 0 .8 3 9 .9 3 9 .0 3 8 .0 3 7 .1 3 6 .2 3 5 .2 3 4 .3 3 3 .3 3 2 .4 3 1 .5 3 0 .5 2 9 .6 2 8 .7 2 7 .8 2 6 .9 2 6 .0 2 5 .1 2 4 .2 2 3 .3 2 2 .4 2 1 .5 2 0 .7 1 9 .8 T a b le (1) Yea rs x to of x +1 (2) Number l i v i n g In p o p u la tio n 20, T a b le (4) born a l iv e In la b o r fo rc e P ercent of p o p u la tio n N um be r ( of W o rk in g L i f e , (5) A c c e s s io n s to the la b o r fo rc e (p e r 1 ,0 0 0 in p o p u la tio n ) 1000 Ax 3) 1 0 0 ,0 0 0 ^w x of wx M a le s , 1960- -C o n tin u e d (6) (8) (7) S e p a ra tio n s from the la b o r fo rc e (p e r 1 ,0 0 0 in la b o r fo r c e ) Du e t o Due to Du e t o a l l re tire m e n t Death causes 1 0 0 0 Qd 1 0 0 0 QS 1 0 0 0 Q Xr ( 10) 9) A v e ra g e num ber o f re m a in in g y e a r s o f Labor force p a rtic ip a tio n L ife o o ew ex X ( (A t (In 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 yea rs years years years yea rs years years years years yea rs yea rs yea rs yea rs years yea rs years years years years yea rs years years yea rs years years years yea rs years yea rsyears yearsyearsyears- 8 8 ,6 5 5 8 8 ,0 3 3 8 7 ,3 5 1 8 6 ,5 9 5 8 5 ,7 6 2 8 4 ,8 4 7 8 3 ,8 5 2 8 2 ,7 7 8 8 1 ,6 3 0 8 0 ,4 1 1 79 * 1 1 7 7 7 ,7 4 2 7 6 ,2 7 2 7 4 ,7 0 0 7 3 ,0 1 9 7 1 ,2 3 0 6 9 ,3 3 4 6 7 ,3 3 9 6 5 ,2 4 6 6 3 ,0 6 2 6 0 ,7 8 9 5 8 ,4 3 3 5 6 ,0 0 2 5 3 ,5 0 7 5 0 ,9 5 5 4 8 ,3 5 2 4 5 ,7 0 8 4 3 ,0 2 5 4 0 ,3 1 3 3 7 ,5 8 0 3 4 ,8 3 9 3 2 ,1 0 0 2 9 ,3 6 9 year of 8 5 ,1 9 7 8 4 ,4 6 3 8 3 ,6 1 2 8 2 ,6 2 5 8 1 ,4 8 4 8 0 ,1 8 0 7 8 ,7 2 7 7 7 ,1 4 0 7 5 ,4 2 0 7 3 ,5 7 6 7 1 ,6 2 1 6 9 ,5 4 9 6 7 ,3 4 8 6 4 ,9 8 9 6 2 ,3 5 8 5 9 ,4 0 6 5 6 ,2 3 0 5 2 ,7 9 4 4 8 ,2 1 7 3 5 ,5 0 4 2 9 ,4 8 3 2 5 ,8 8 6 2 3 ,3 5 3 2 0 ,9 7 5 1 8 ,7 5 1 1 6 ,6 8 1 1 4 ,7 6 4 1 2 ,9 9 0 1 1 ,3 4 9 9 ,8 4 1 8 ,4 4 8 7 ,1 6 6 5 ,9 9 9 age) 9 6 .1 9 5 .9 9 5 .7 9 5 .4 9 5 .0 9 4 .5 9 3 .9 9 3 .2 9 2 .4 9 1 ,5 9 0 .5 8 9 .5 8 8 .3 8 7 .0 8 5 .4 8 3 .4 8 1 .1 7 8 .4 7 3 .9 5 6 .3 4 8 .5 4 4 .3 4 1 .7 3 9 ,2 3 6 .8 3 4 .5 3 2 .3 3 0 .2 2 8 .2 2 6 .2 2 4 .2 2 2 .3 2 0 .4 (B etw ee n y e a r s -------------------------------1 8 .6 1 0 .1 1 1 .8 1 3 .8 1 6 .0 1 8 .1 2 0 .2 2 2 .3 2 4 .4 2 6 .6 2 8 .9 3 1 .6 3 5 .0 4 0 .5 4 7 .3 5 3 .5 6 1 .1 8 6 .7 2 6 3 .7 1 6 9 .6 1 2 2 .0 9 7 .9 1 0 1 .8 1 0 6 .0 1 1 0 .3 1 1 5 .0 1 2 0 .2 1 2 6 .2 1 3 2 .9 1 4 1 .6 1 5 1 .8 1 6 2 .9 1 7 4 .9 of 7 .0 7 .7 8 .7 9 .6 1 0 .7 1 1 .7 1 2 .8 1 3 .8 1 4 .8 1 6 .0 1 7 .3 1 8 .8 2 0 .5 2 2 .3 2 4 .2 2 6 .2 2 8 .3 3 0 .2 2 9 .6 3 3 .6 3 7 .2 4 0 .4 4 3 .3 4 6 .3 4 9 .5 5 3 .0 5 6 .8 6 0 .9 6 5 .5 7 0 .3 7 5 .6 8 1 .6 8 8 .4 age) 1 .6 2 .4 3 .1 4 .2 5 .3 6 .4 7 .4 8 .5 9 .6 1 0 .6 1 1 .6 1 2 .8 1 4 .5 1 8 .2 2 3 .1 2 7 .3 3 2 .8 5 6 .5 2 3 4 .1 1 3 6 .0 8 4 .8 5 7 .5 5 8 .5 5 9 .7 6 0 .8 6 2 .0 6 3 .4 6 5 .3 6 7 .4 7 1 .3 7 6 .2 8 1 .3 8 6 .5 2 6 .3 2 5 .4 2 4 .6 2 3 .8 2 3 .0 2 2 .2 2 1 .5 2 0 .8 2 0 .0 1 9 .3 1 8 .6 1 7 .9 1 7 .2 1 6 .6 1 5 .9 1 5 .3 1 4 .7 1 4 .1 1 3 .5 1 3 .0 1 2 .4 1 1 .9 1 1 .3 1 0 .8 1 0 .3 9 .8 9 .4 8 .9 8 .4 8 .0 7 .6 7 .1 6 .7 b e g in n in g o f o f age) 1 8 .9 1 8 .1 1 7 .2 1 6 .4 1 5 .6 1 4 .9 1 4 .1 1 3 .4 1 2 .7 1 1 .9 1 1 .2 1 0 .5 9 .9 9 .2 8 .5 7 .9 7 .3 6 .7 6 .2 6 .3 7 .0 7 .2 7 .0 6 .7 6 .5 6 .2 5 .9 5 .6 5 .4 5 .1 4 .8 4 .6 4 .3 year on 00 T a b le ( Yea rs x to 1) of , age x +1 2 6 ,6 5 4 2 3 ,9 5 9 2 1 ,3 0 1 1 8 ,7 1 1 1 6 ,2 4 1 1 3 ,9 4 5 5 6 ,3 9 0 year of W o rk in g L i f e , M ales, 1960- -C o n tin u e d 4 ,9 5 0 4 ,0 1 9 3 ,2 0 2 2 ,4 9 6 1 ,9 0 0 1 ,4 1 8 4 ,5 1 1 ( B e t w e e n ye<sirs o f o f age) 1 8 .6 1 6 .8 1 5 .0 1 3 .3 1 1 .7 1 0 .2 8 .0 Source: B as ed on u n p u b l i s h e d d a t a w h ic h u p d a t e s D e p a r t m e n t o f L a b o r , Manpower A d m i n i s t r a t i o n . T a b le ( 2 )_________________ ( 3 )_____________( 4 )________________( 5 )_____________________ ( 6 )____________( 7 )______________ ( 8 )_____________ ( 9 ) , ( 10) S e p a ra tio n s from the la b o r fo r c e A v e r a g e number o f N u m b e r l i v i n g o f 1 0 0 ,0 0 0 b o r n a l i v e A c c e s s io n s to ( p e r 1 , 0 0 0 i n l a b roerm af o the la b o r fo rc e n in g ye a rs o f In la b o r fo rc e i rc e) Du e t o Labor forc e Du e t o a l l Du e t o In P e rcent o f (p e r 1 ,0 0 0 in re tire m e n t L ife p a rtic ip a tio n Causes D eath p o p u la tio n p o p u la tio n ) p o p u la tio n Num be r o 1 0 0 0 Qg 1000 A x 1 0 0 0 Q® 1000 QJ o L wx wx Lx ex ewx (In 79 y e a r s --------------8 0 y e a r s ............ 81 y e a r s ............ 82 y e a r s ............ 83 y e a r s --------------8 4 y e a r s --------------8 5 + y e a r s ------------ 20. ----- The L e n g th o f 1 8 8 .1 2 0 3 .3 2 2 0 .5 2 3 8 .8 2 5 3 .7 2 6 5 .2 W o rk in g L i f e for 9 6 .5 1 0 5 .5 1 1 5 .2 1 2 4 .5 1 3 2 .9 1 4 2 .2 M a le s, (A t age) 1900- 6 0 , 9 1 .6 9 7 .8 1 0 5 .3 1 1 4 .3 1 2 0 .8 1 2 3 .0 Manpower R e p o r t b e g in n in g o f y e a r o f age) 4 .1 3 .9 3 .7 3 .6 3 .6 3 .6 3 .7 6 .3 6 .0 5 .6 5 .3 5 .0 4 .7 4 .4 No. 8, U .S . APPRAISING THE ADEQ UACY OF SUPPLY IN IN D IV ID U A L OCCUPATIONS The preceding chapters of this volume have been concerned with future manpower requirements. In planning occupational training programs, another factor also should be considered—the adequacy of supply. Only by considering both demand and supply together can questions be resolved as to whether or not programs should be developed to expand training in a particular occupation. The supply of workers in a particular occupation is not static, as a continuous flow of workers into and out of an occupation takes place. Entrants take into account those coming from the following sources: Persons enter ing directly after completion of a training program designed to prepare them for that occupation; persons entering directly after completion of a training program designed to prepare persons for some other occupation; persons other than students who are not in the civilian labor force, including housewives, retired persons, and those in the Armed Forces; persons employed in other occupations; and immigrants. In a State or specific locality, the migration of persons from other areas might be especially significant. Occupational losses include an estimate of the number of workers in the occupation who will die or retire during the projection period, those who will leave the civilian labor force for some other reason, those who will transfer to other occupations, and those who will emigrate. In the analysis of occupational supply in a State or specific locality, migration to other areas also must be considered. The flow of manpower into and out of an occupation is illustrated in chart 3. Several approaches may be used to evaluate the adequacy of supply in an occupation. One approach is to compare the annual number of new entrants in an occupation in recent periods with the number of new workers that will be needed annually in a future period for growth of employment requirements and for replace ments. This approach provides an indication as to how much training activities must be expanded to meet estimated or assumed manpower requirements in the occupation. This type of analysis is illustrated in a recent study of health manpower conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, in which the following analysis was made in appraising the adequacy of the output of United States dental schools. The analysis of manpower require ments resulting from employment growth and replace ment needs indicated an annual average need for about 5,300 new dentists between 1966 and 1975. Over the 1960-66 period, about 3,200 persons graduated from dental schools each year. On the basis of follow-up studies of new dental graduates, assumptions were made that nearly all of the new dentists would stay in the field61 and that very few other additions to the supply during this 9-year period would take place, because recent experience indicated only a small number of dentists immigrate to the United States and very few persons who qualify as dentists return to this occupation from other fields or from outside of the labor force.62 The conclusions that might be reached by comparing the current output of dental schools with the number of new dentists needed each year would indicate that the annual number of dental graduates would have to be increased by about two-fifths, from about 3,200 to about 5,300, in the 1966-75 period. In using this approach for area manpower analysis, the effect of migration into the area from other parts of the country would have to be evaluated if migration out of the area were included in the estimate of needs. (See Chapter 2 for a discussion of manpower requirements resulting from migration.) Another approach for determining whether or not, or how much, training programs should be expanded is to appraise current and recent supply-demand relationships to estimate the incidence of “shortages.” Next, an appraisal of the expected growth in requirements relative to past employment increases is made. If, for example, shortages have been and are occurring, and the growth rate in employment requirements is accelerating, one could assume reasonably that the rate of growth in training also must be accelerated. Another approach that may be useful for some planning purposes is to estimate the supply that might be available at a future target year under specific assumptions about the future. The resulting estimate of supply may be compared with target year projections of requirements to illustrate target-year supply-demand conditions, if steps are not taken through vocational guidance or other methods to adjust supply to prospec tive demand. 61 This is not true in many occupations, as discussed later in this Chapter. 62 In other fields such as physicians, immigrants have made up a significant proportion of annual new entrants into the occupation in recent periods. In an occupation such as teaching, re-entrants into the labor force, especially women who had withdrawn because of family responsibilities, make up a large percent of additions to supply each year. 59 Chart 3. THE STREAM OF MANPOWER INTO AND OUT OF AN OCCUPATION ENTRANTS OCCUPATIONAL LOSSES 1/ Includes all workers who leave the civilian labor force or who emigrate. The procedure which is followed in developing supply projections consists of three basic steps. First, a current supply estimate is established as the base of the projection. Then, the annual number of entrants from all sources is developed for the period that the projection is to cover. Third, the base current supply is aggregated with estimates of the annual number of entrants and annual occupational losses are deducted. The use of this method is limited, however, to a relatively few occupations. In most occupations estimates of annual new entrants cannot be developed, primarily because information on numbers entering from the various sources are not available. For many occupa tions, reliable information is not even available on how workers generally become qualified for their jobs. For example, among most craftsmen occupations—fields for which long periods of training are generally requiredonly a relatively small proportion are trained through apprenticeship or other formal training programs for 60 which statistics on completions are available. Many craftsmen learn their jobs by informal on-the-job train ing. Other persons, by moving from one semiskilled job to another over a period of years, acquire knowledge and skills sufficient to become skilled workers. Others begin learning a skilled trade in vocational, trade, or technical schools. Similarly, quantitative estimates of the supply in an occupation such as typist are extremely difficult to obtain, as thousands of people leam how to type each year in schools or at home. The occupations for which sufficient information is available to develop a projected supply estimate are primarily those in the professional and technical major occupational group that have a specific training requirement. Most are in the scientific, engineering, health, and teaching occupations. This latter method is the most detailed of the procedures to use in analyzing supply and the following detailed description of the method of developing targetyear supply projections is presented to illustrate the many concepts and factors that must be considered. Understanding these concepts is also desirable for the other types of supply analysis described above. To make the description more realistic, national supply projec tions for engineers and several science fields are presented. Methods for Projecting Labor Supply in a Specific Occupation The inflows and outflows to an occupation is illustrated in the following formula which indicates the change in supply from period N to N+l: Supply in .the, equals. Current . n f period future supply, plus Entrants . Occupation . j during° minus 1 . r period . losses , period during (E+UE)n+1 = (e +ue)n + TPs+TPo+0C+NLF+In^ n+1 (D+R+T+OL)n^ n+1 Where E = Employment UE = Unemployed workers seeking work in occupation TPS = Entrants from training programs designed to prepare workers specifi cally for the occupation TP0 = Entrants from training programs de signed to prepare workers for other occupations OC = Entrants from other occupations NLF = Entrants from persons not in the labor force I = Immigrants entering the occupation D = Deaths R = Retirements T = Transfers OL = Other losses (e.g. emigrants) The following is a discussion of each of the steps involved in using this formula to project supply in period N+l; the inflows and outflows to engineering and science fields will serve as an illustration. Current Supply. Current supply, when defined as the sum of the employed and unemployed, is different from “potential supply,” which would include all workers who could perform that type of work regardless of their decision to work in another occupation or not to work at all. Many people possess more than one skill and will work at more than one occupation as circumstances dictate or opportunities allow. This statement is particu larly true of occupations for which the skill require ments are relatively low; but, even at the highest levels of skill and training, many individuals’ qualifications permit them to shift from one occupation to another. Thus, in the United States, even in the sciences, where specific educational requirements are among the highest in the occupational hierarchy, an appreciable amount of shifting between occupations occurs. In general, because of the multiplicity of skills possessed by individuals, the number of persons quali fied for employment in any occupation will always be larger than the number actually employed. Many of those qualified, but not currently employed in an occupation, are employed in other occupations, and some are persons not economically active, e.g., retired persons or women who have temporarily withdrawn from the labor force to take care of their families. The labor supply for an occupation, therefore, may be viewed as elastic to some extent. When earnings or other inducements for employment (e.g., location, education paid for by employer, other fringe benefits, willingness of employers to accept part-time workers, etc.) in the occupation are high relative to those in other occupa tions or to past periods, some additional workers may be drawn in; the opposite situation may take place when earnings, opportunities, or other inducements are low. Thus, some assumptions or indications of the demand for the occupation, both overall and relative to compet ing occupations, are needed in developing a supply projection for an occupation. An estimate of the employment of engineers and scientists in the United States in 1966 is shown in table 21. The estimates were developed independently for engineers and scientists employed in six major sectors of the economy—private industry, colleges and universities, Federal Government, State governments, local govern ments and nonprofit organizations. To the employment estimates can be added an estimate of unemployed scientists and engineers.63 New Entrants. College graduates from United States schools will make up, by far, the largest portion of new entrants into science and engineering positions in the United States. The estimates of entrants are based on three factors: (1) Projections of new college graduates in each field; (2) estimates of the proportion of new college graduates in each degree field who enter the field 6 3 Based on unpublished data from the Current Population Survey. The unemployment rate for scientists and engineers was estimated at about 1 percent in 1965. 61 T a b le 2 1 . E s t im a t e d Employment o f S c i e n t i s t s and E n g in e e r s O c c u p a t io n and Broad I n d u s t r y G roup, 1966 (In th ousands) by S c ie n tists and en g in ee rs E n g in e e r s T o tal P h y sica l sc ie n tists A l l i n d u s t r i e s --------- 1 4 1 2 .2 9 9 6 .0 4 1 6 .7 2 1 3 .0 1 5 0 .6 5 1 .8 P r i v a t e i n d u s t r y --------------F e d e r a l g o v e r n m e n t ----------S t a t e g o v e r n m e n t s ------------L o c a l g o v e r n m e n t s ------------C o l l e g e s and u n i v e r s i t i e s ------------------- 1 0 1 2 .2 1 3 4 .1 5 1 .7 3 3 .8 8 1 6 .8 8 0 .1 3 6 .0 2 8 .0 1 9 5 .5 5 4 .0 1 5 .9 5 .7 1 3 7 .1 2 5 .5 2 .8 1 .4 2 7 .1 2 4 .5 1 2 .9 4 .2 2 9 .7 4 .1 .4 .1 18 0 .7 3 5 .1 1 4 5 .6 4 6 .2 8 1 .9 1 7 .5 In d u str y group immediately after receiving their degree, and (3) esti mates of the proportion of these workers who are not employed in the field at the time they received their degrees. Projections of graduates in individual fields of study have been made by the Office of Education on the basis of past trends in the proportion of the total school population, for males and females separately, who are enrolled or graduated in each course.64 These projec tions assume that the propensity of students to enroll in the various courses will follow past trends and will not be affected by changes in student vocational preferences resulting from vocational guidance or the publication of information on employment opportunities. They also assume that schools will continue to expand their facilities for teaching each course in line with past trends, and will not take into account, any more than in the past, projections of manpower needs in the various occupations. Not all graduates obtain jobs in the field of their training. Some mathematics graduates, for example, obtain positions in engineering, and conversely, some persons with degrees in engineering follow a career in mathematics. Many graduates become teachers in sec ondary schools, particularly in science and mathematics. Some graduates with bachelor’s degrees begin profes sional training in other fields such as medicine or business management. Some graduates with degrees in science or engineering take jobs that do not directly use their technical knowledge, e.g., clerical, sales, etc. Many 64 See Projections o f Educational Statistics to 1975-76, 1966 Edition, U.S. Department of Health, Education and Welfare; OE-10030-66 for a detailed description of the method used to project total enrollments in institutions of higher education; first-time degree credit enrollment; bachelor and first professional degrees (men and women separately), total and by field.; and masters’ and doctors’ degrees, total and by field. 62 S c ie n tists L ife sc ie n tists M athema ticia n s others continue to attend school. Therefore, estimates of the proportion of students in each degree field who will enter the field in which they were trained immediately after graduation are necessary. Such estimates can be prepared by analyzing the type of work obtained by college graduating classes in the past.65 Table 22 shows illustrative estimates of the proportion of science and engineering graduates by degree level entering their field of training directly after receiving their degree. New college graduates who enter the field for which they were trained are not the only source of new college graduates entering a particular science or engineering specialty. Each year the supply of scientists is augmented by some engineering graduates and the supply of engineers by some science graduates. Further more, some new college graduates in fields other than science or engineering, such as education, etc., enter science and engineering occupations. Estimates of the number of persons who will enter engineering and each science occupation with degrees in fields other than in the occupation that they enter can be developed also from followup studies of college graduating classes, which reveal the type of work obtained compared with the college majors. For example, estimates in recent years indicate that in the United States for every 100 persons with bachelor’s degrees in engineering who have become engineers upon graduation, about 20 persons enter engineering who had received college degrees in other fields. Similarly, for every 100 persons with a bachelor’s degree in chemistry who become chemists, 25 persons enter the field with college degrees in other fields. 65 Two major follow-up studies in the United States provide data in developing such estimates: Two Years A fter the College D egree-W ork and Further Study Patterns, NSF 63-26, and Education and E m ploym ent Specialization in 1952 o f June 1951 College Graduates, National Science Foundation, 1954. T a b le 2 2 . P r o p o r t i o n o f G r a d u a te s E n t e r i n g T h e i r F i e l d o f T r a i n i n g , by D e g r e e L e v e l F ie ld BA r e c ip ie n ts MA r e c ip ie n ts PH.D. r e c ip ie n ts 80 34 30 25 84 97 95 95 95 95 95 95 E n g i n e e r i n g -------------------------------------------------------C h e m i s t r y -----------------------------------------------------------P h y s i c s ---------------------------------------------------------------E a r th s c i e n c e ---------------------------------------------------L i f e s c i e n c e -----------------------------------------------------M a t h e m a t ic s -------------------------------------------------------P h y s i c a l s c i e n c e ( a l l o t h e r ) -------------------- 2 0 19 15 6 8 61 52 51 47 35 S o u r c e : E s t i m a t e s b a s e d on d a t a p r e s e n t e d i n Two Y e a r s A f t e r t h e C o l l e g e D e g r e e - Work and F u r t h e r S tu d y P a t t e r n s (NSF The p r o p o r t i o n s f o r P h D D. r e c i p i e n t s a r e b a s e d on a n a l y s i s o f s e v e r a l s t u d i e s o f t h e e d u c a t i o n a l makeup o f s c i e n c e and e n g i n e e r i n g p r o f e s s i o n s . 6 3 2 6 ) 0 A final step in preparing estimates of new entrants with United States college degrees was to determine the proportion of the graduates who were not employed already in the occupation at the time they received their degree. A large percentage of persons receiving their master’s and Ph.D. degrees already have jobs in the field for which they are studying while they attend school. Available data indicate that about four-fifths of all new Ph.D. graduates in engineering and all science fields, except chemistry (60 percent), already were employed in their field when they received their degrees66. Similarly, estimates of new master’s degree recipients who were employed in their fields at the time they received their degrees ranged from one-half to four-fifths among the various fields. Moreover, some new engineer ing bachelors’ degrees graduates already were employed in engineering and received other degrees by attending school parttime. Other Entrants. In addition to new United States college graduates, significant numbers of persons enter scientific and engineering professions from other areas. Many technicians and other persons without college degrees are upgraded to science and engineering positions; workers in other occupations who have college degrees transfer to science or engineering; many persons transfer from one science field to another; and others enter from outside the labor force. In addition, immigrants add to the supply of scientists and engineers. In any State or specific area of the country, persons migrating from other areas may be a major source of new entrants. One might project the number of entrants from each of these sources by examining past data and considering possible future developments. The number of scientists and engineers immigrating into the United States in past years are available and might be projected, if changes in immigration regulations and other factors are con sidered. Information on upgrading of technicians to engineering or science jobs are available from follow-up studies.67 Alternatively, one could develop estimates of all new entrants, except new college graduates, as a group, from past data.68 Losses to Supply. In projecting the supply of workers to a future year, an estimate is needed of losses both from supply in the base year and from new entrants, resulting from deaths, retirements, persons leaving the labor force for other reasons, transfers out of the occupation; and for a specific area, persons migrating to other areas. Several methods of estimating such losses are described in Chapter 2. 6 7 Postcensal Study o f Professional and Technical Personnelpersons who were reported as technicians in the 1960 decennial census were asked their occupation in 1962. A discussion of the amount of upgrading to science and engineering occupations is included in Technician Manpower: Requirements, Resources and Training Needs. (BLS Bulletin 1512.) 68 For example, in engineering, to develop estimates of new entrants other than new United States college graduates from 1950 to 1963, an analysis first was made of the growth in the occupation over that period; of the total number of entrants during that period with new United States college degrees; and appropriate death, retirement, and transfer losses for the 1950-63 period to these groups. The sum of both workers employed in 1950 still in the occupation in 1963 and 1950-63 entrants with college degrees still remaining in the occupation in 1963 was deducted from.the 1963 employment. The remainder 66 See D octorate Production o f United States Universitieswas estimated to be the total number in the occupation who 1920-1962, National Academy of Science, National Research entered without United States college degrees over the 1950-63 Council publication 1142. period and still were employed. 63 A p p e n d ix A. E s t im a t e d A nnual D e a th and R e t ir e m e n t R a t e s f o r S e l e c t e d O c c u p a t i o n s , by S e x , f o r Em ployed W orkers in th e U n ited S t a t e s 1/ O c c u p a t io n s E m ploym ent, t o t a l P r o f e s s i o n a l , t e c h n i c a l , and k i n d r e d ---------------------------------E n g i n e e r s , t e c h n i c a l --------------------------------------------------------------E n g i n e e r s , a e r o n a u t i c a l ---------------------------------------------------E n g i n e e r s , c h e m i c a l ------------------------------------------------------------E n g i n e e r s , c i v i l ------------------------------------------------------------------E n g i n e e r s , e l e c t r i c a l --------------------------------------------------------E n g i n e e r s , i n d u s t r i a l --------------------------------------------------------E n g i n e e r s , m e c h a n i c a l -------------------------------------------------------E n g i n e e r s , m e t a l l u r g i c a l , e t c . - -----------------------------------E n g i n e e r s , m i n i n g ----------------------------------------------------------------O th e r e n g i n e e r s , t e c h n i c a l ---------------------------------------------N a t u r a l s c i e n t i s t s ------------------------------------------------------------------C h e m is t -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------A g r i c u l t u r a l s c i e n t i s t s ---------------------------------------------------B i o l o g i c a l s c i e n t i s t s -------------------------------------------------------G e o l o g i s t s and g e o p h y s i c i s t s -----------------------------------------M a t h e m a t ic ia n s ----------------------------------------------------------------------P h y s i c i s t s ------------------------------------------------------------------------------O th e r n a t u r a l s c i e n t i s t s -------------------------------------------------T e c h n i c i a n s , e x c l u d i n g m e d i c a l - d e n t a l --------------------------T e c h n i c i a n s , e l e c t r i c a l and e l e c t r o n i c --------------------T e c h n i c i a n s , o t h e r e n g i n e e r i n g and p h y s i c a l s c i e n t i s t s --------------------------------------------------------------------------D r a f t s m e n --------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------S u r v e y o r s --------------------------------------------------------------------------------T e c h n i c i a n s , o t h e r ------------------- ------------------------------------------M e d ic a l and o t h e r h e a l t h w o r k e r s -------------------------------------D i e t i t i a n s and n u t r i t i o n i s t s ------------------------------------------N u r s e s , p r o f e s s i o n a l ----------------------------------------------------------P h a r m a c i s t s ---------------------------------------------------------------------------P s y c h o l o g i s t s ------------------------------------------------------------------------T e c h n i c i a n s , m e d i c a l and d e n t a l -----------------------------------V e t e r i n a r i a n s -------------------------------------------------------------------------T e a c h e r s ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------T e a c h e r s , e le m e n t a r y ----------------------------------------------------------T e a c h e r s , s e c o n d a r y -------------------------------------------------------------T e a c h e r s , o t h e r e x c e p t c o l l e g e -------------------------------------T e a c h e r s , c o l l e g e ----------------------------------------------------------------S o c i a l s c i e n t i s t s ---------------------------------------------------------------------E c o n o m i s t s -------------------------------------------------------------------------------S t a t i s t i c i a n s and a c t u a r i e s --------------------------------------------O th e r s o c i a l s c i e n t i s t s ----------------------------------------------------O th e r p r o f e s s i o n a l , t e c h n i c a l , and k i n d r e d -----------------A c c o u n t a n t s and a u d i t o r s --------------------------------------------------A r c h i t e c t s -------------------------------------------------------------------------------C le r g y m e n ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------D e s i g n e r s , e x c e p t d e s i g n d r a f t s m e n ------------------------------E d i t o r s and r e p o r t e r s --------------------------------------------------------L aw yers and j u d g e s ---------------------------------------------------------------L i b r a r i a n s -------------------------------------------------------------------------------P e r s o n n e l and l a b o r r e l a t i o n s w o r k e r s -----------------------P h o t o g r a p h e r s ------------------------------------------------------------------------S o c i a l and w e l f a r e w o r k e r s ---------------------------------------------P r o f e s s i o n a l and t e c h n i c a l w o r k e r s , n o t e l s e w h e r e c l a s s i f i e d --------------------------------------------------------------------------S e e f o o t n o t e s a t end o f t a b l e . 64 M ale F em a le 2 / 2 .0 4 08 1 .6 1 .3 0 .7 0 .9 1 .9 1 .0 1 .1 1 .4 1 .2 1 .4 1 .3 1 .0 1 .1 1 .5 1 .0 0 .9 0 .4 0 .7 0 .9 0 .7 0 .6 4 .9 0 .8 0 .8 1 .2 1 .1 2 .5 1 .3 2 .8 0 .8 1 .1 2 .0 1 .3 1 .1 1 .3 1 .5 1 .7 1 .4 1 .5 1 .6 1 .4 1 .3 1 .9 2 .4 2 .6 1 .5 1 .9 2 .9 1 .3 1 .5 1 .6 1 .7 1 .3 4 .9 4 .8 4 .6 4 .5 5 .2 4 .8 4 .8 4 .8 4 .8 4 .9 4 .9 4 .4 4 .9 5 .3 3 .9 4 .3 4 .7 4 .9 A p p en d ix A . E s tim a te d A nnual D ea th and R e tir e m e n t R a te s f o r S e le c t e d O c c u p a t io n s , by S e x , f o r E m ployed W orkers in th e U n ite d S t a t e s _ ! / - -C o n tin u e d O c c u p a tio n s M a n a g ers, o f f i c i a l s , and p r o p r ie t o r s ----------------------C o n d u c to r s , r a i l r o a d ----------------------------------------------C r e d itm e n ---------------------------------------------------------------------O f f i c e r s , p i l o t s , e n g in e e r s , s h i p ---------------------P u r c h a s in g a g e n t s ----------------------------------------------------P o s tm a s te r s and a s s i s t a n t s ----------------------------------O th er m a n a g e r s, o f f i c i a l s , and p r o p r ie t o r s - C l e r i c a l and k in d r e d w o r k e r s -------------------------------------S te n o g r a p h e r s , t y p i s t s , and s e c r e t a r i e s -----------O f f i c e m a ch in e o p e r a t o r s ------------------------------------------O th er c l e r i c a l and k in d r e d w o r k e r s ---------------------B o o k k e e p e r s, t o t a l --------------------------------------------------Bank t e l l e r s ---------------------------------------------------------------C a s h ie r s -----------------------------------------------------------------------M ail c a r r i e r s -------------------------------------------------------------p a y r o ll and tim e k e e p in g c l e r k s --------------------------P o s t a l c l e r k s -------------------------------------------------------------S h ip p in g and r e c e i v in g c l e r k s ----------------------------T e le p h o n e o p e r a t o r s ------------------------------------------------C l e r i c a l and k in d r e d w o r k e r s , n o t e ls e w h e r e c l a s s i f i e d ----------------------------------------------------------— S a le s w o r k e r s ---------------------------------------------------------------------In s u r a n c e a g e n t s and b r o k e r s ----------------------------------R e a l e s t a t e a g e n ts and b r o k e r s ------------------------------O th er s a l e s w o r k e r s , n o t e ls e w h e r e c l a s s i f i e d C r a ftsm e n , fo r e m e n , and k in d r e d w o r k e r s ---------------C o n s t r u c tio n c r a f ts m e n ----------------------------------------------C a r p e n te r s -------------------------------------------------------------------B r ic k m a so n s, s t o n e , and t i l e s e t t e r s -------------C em ent and c o n c r e t e f i n i s h e r s ----------------------------E l e c t r i c i a n s ------------------------------------------- ------------------E x c a v a tin g , g r a d in g m a ch in e o p e r a t o r s ----------P a in t e r s and p a p e r h a n g e r s ----------------- -----------------P l a s t e r e r s ------------------------------------------------------------------P lu m b ers and p i p e f i t t e r s -------------------------------------F orem en , n o t e ls e w h e r e c l a s s i f i e d -----------------------M eta lw o rk in g c r a f ts m e n , e x c e p t m e c h a n ic s --------M a c h in is t s -----------------------------------------------------------------B la c k s m it h s , f o r g e hammermen-----------------------------B o ile r m a k e r s --------------------------------------------------------------H ea t t r e a t e r s , a n n e a le r s , e t c . ------------------------M il lw r ig h t s ----------------------------------------------------------------M o ld e r s, m e ta l ( e x c e p t c o r e m a k e r s )----------------P a tte r n m a k e r s , m e ta l and w ood---------------------------R o l le r s and r o l l h a n d s -----------------------------------------S h e e t m e ta l w o r k e rs ( t i n s m i t h s ) ----------------------T o o l- a n d - d ie m a k er s-----------------------------------------------M ec h a n ics and r e p a ir m e n -----------------------------------------------A i r - c o n d i t io n in g , h e a t i n g , and r e f r i g e r a t i o n m e c h a n ic s --------------------------------------------------------------------A ir p la n e m e c h a n ic s -----------------------------------------------------M otor v e h i c l e s m e c h a n ic s -----------------------------------------O f f i c e m a ch in e m e c h a n ic s -----------------------------------------R ad io and t e l e v i s i o n m e c h a n ic s -----------------------------R a ilr o a d and c a r sh op m e c h a n ic s ....................... ............. O th er m e c h a n ic s and r e p a ir m e n -------------------------------- M ale 2.5 3 08 F em ale 2 / 4 .7 1 .6 2 .1 1 .8 3.8 2 .1 1 .8 0 .6 1.9 2.3 1.4 1 .6 1 .6 2 .0 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.9 2 .0 2 .0 4.1 2 .0 1.9 2 .0 2.3 1.5 1.5 1 .6 1.3 2.5 1.7 1 .8 1.9 1.9 2.0 3.4 4 .9 5 .1 5 .1 4 .8 4 .5 4 .6 4 .5 4 .1 4 .3 4 .2 4 .0 5 .0 4 .8 4 .7 5 .3 4 .7 4 .3 3 .8 2.1 1 .8 1.9 1 .6 2 .0 1 .8 1.5 1 .8 1.6 1.3 1.0 1.3 0.9 0.9 2.7 2 .0 S ee f o o t n o t e s a t end o f t a b l e . 65 A p p en d ix A. E s tim a te d A nnual D ea th and R e tir e m e n t R a te s f o r S e le c t e d O c c u p a t io n s , by S e x , f o r E m ployed W orkers i«n th e U n ite d S t a t e s 1 / - -C o n tin u e d O c c u p a tio n s P r i n t in g t r a d e s c r a f ts m e n --------------------------------- --------C o m p o sito r s and t y p e s e t t e r s ----------------------------------E le c t r o t y p e r s and s t e r e o t y p e r s ----------------------------E n g r a v e r s , e x c e p t p h o to e n g r a v e r s -----------------------P h o to e n g r a v e r s and l it h o g r a p h e r s -----------------------P re ssm e n and p l a t e p r i n t e r s ----------------------------------T r a n s p o r ta tio n and p u b lic u t i l i t y c r a f ts m e n -----L in e and s e r v ic e m e n , t e le p h o n e , p o w er-------------L o c o m o tiv e e n g in e e r s ------------------------------------------------L o c o m o tiv e fir e m e n ---------------------------------------------------O th er c r a fts m e n and k in d r e d w o r k e r s --------------------B a k e r s --------------- -------------------------------------------------------------C a b in e tm a k e r s---------------------------------------------------------------C ranem en, d e r r ic k m e n , h o is tm e n ---------------------------G l a z i e r s ------------------------------------------------------------------------J e w e le r s and w a tch m a k e rs---------------------------------------Loom f i x e r s ------------------------------------------------------------------M i l l e r s ---------------------------------------------------------------------------O p t i c i a n s , le n s g r in d e r s , e t c . ----------------------------S t a t io n a r y e n g in e e r s ------------------------------------------------I n s p e c t o r s , lo g and lu m b er--------------- --------------------I n s p e c t o r s , o t h e r -------------------------------------------------------U p h o ls t e r e r s -----------------------------------------------------------------C r a ftsm en and k in d r e d w o r k e r s , n o t e ls e w h e r e c l a s s i f i e d -----------------------------------------------------------------O p e r a tiv e s and k in d r e d w o r k e r s --------------------------------D r iv e r s and d e liv e r y m e n -----------------------------------------D r iv e r s , b u s , tr u c k , t r a c t o r ---------------------------D e liv e r y m e n , r o u te m e n , cab d r i v e r s --------------S e le c t e d t r a n s p o r t a t io n and p u b lic u t i l i t y o p e r a t o r s ------------------------------------------------------------------Brakem en and sw itc h m e n , r a i l r o a d ------------------P ow er s t a t i o n o p e r a t o r s -------------------------------------S a i lo r s and d e ck h a n d s ---------------------------------------S e m is k ille d m e ta lw o r k in g o c c u p a t io n s --------------A s s e m b le r s -----------------------------------------------------------------------F u rn a cem en , s m e lt e r e r s , p o w e r s ------------------------------H e a t e r s , m e t a l---------------------------------------------------------------C h e c k e r s , e x a m in e r s , e t c . ----------------------------------------W e ld e r s-----------------------------------------------------------------------------S e m is k ille d t e x t i l e o c c u p a t io n s --------------------------------K n it t e r s , l o o p e r s , and t o p p e r s -----------------------------S p in n e r s , t e x t i l e --------------------------------------------------------W ea v ers, t e x t i l e ----------------------------------------------------------S ew ers and s t i t c h e r s m a n u fa c tu r in g --------------------O th er o p e r a t iv e s and k in d r e d w o r k e r s --------------------A t t e n d a n t s , a u to m o b ile p a r k -----------------------------------B l a s t e r s and pow derm en---------------------------------------------L aundry and d ry c le a n in g -----------------------------------------M eat c u t t e r s , e x c e p t m e a tp a c k in g ------------------------O p e r a tiv e s and k in d r e d w o r k e r s , n o t e ls e w h e r e c l a s s i f i e d -----------------------------------------------------------------S e r v ic e w o r k e r s --------------------------------------------------------------------P r i v a t e h o u se h o ld w o r k e r s -------------------------------------------P r o t e c t i v e s e r v i c e w o r k e r s -----------------------------------------P o lic e m e n , d e t e c t i v e , e t c . -------------------------------------G u a rd s, w atch m en , d o o r k e e p e r s -------------------------------S ee f o o t n o t e s a t end o f t a b l e . 66 M ale F em ale 2 / 1 .8 1.9 2 .0 2 .2 1.5 1.5 2.5 0.9 4.4 1.3 1 .8 2 .1 2 .6 1.7 1 .2 2.7 1.7 2 .2 1.7 2 .2 2 .1 2.4 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.3 1 .2 1.4 1.7 4.5 4.7 4.9 3.7 3.2 5.0 4.0 5.0 4.1 3.6 4.3 1 .8 2 .0 1.4 1.4 1.3 1 .6 2.4 1 .6 1 .2 2 .1 1 .2 1.9 1.7 2.9 1.4 1 .0 1.5 2 .1 2 .0 1.5 2.7 3.7 2 .6 1.4 4.3 3.7 3.7 4.2 4.4 3.4 3.6 4.3 4.4 4.4 3.9 4.0 4.7 5.7 A p p e n d ix A . E s t im a te d A n n u al D e a th and R e tir e m e n t R a t e s f o r S e l e c t e d O c c u p a t io n s , by S e x , f o r E m ployed W ork ers in th e U n ite d S t a t e s l /- - C o n t in u e d O c c u p a tio n s W a it e r s , c o o k s , and b a r t e n d e r s --------- ------------ -------------------B a r t e n d e r s --------------------------------------------------------------------------------C o o k s, e x c e p t p r i v a t e h o u s e h o ld -----------------------------------C o u n te r and f o u n t a in w o r k e r s ------------------------------------------W a ite r s and w a i t r e s s e s ------------------------------------------------------O th e r s e r v i c e w o r k e r s -------------------------------------------------------------A tte n d a n ts , ‘ h o s p i t a l and o t h e r i n s t i t u t i o n s ----------Charwom en and c l e a n e r s -------------------------------------------------------J a n i t o r s and s e x t o n s -----------------------------------------------------------N u r s e s , p r a c t i c a l -----------------------------------------------------------------O th e r s e r v i c e w o r k e r s , n o t e ls e w h e r e c l a s s i f i e d - L a b o r e r s , e x c e p t fa r m -----------------------------------------------------------------F arm ers and farm w o r k e r s ------------------------------------------------------------ M ale 2 .1 2 .5 2 .2 1 .3 1 .9 2 .0 1 .7 2 .4 4 .0 2 .9 1 .7 1 .7 1 .7 F em a le 2 / 4 .4 3 .4 4 .5 4 .7 4 .3 5 .0 4 .7 5 .2 5 .3 5 .6 5 .2 4 .7 4 .7 .1/ B a sed on 1 9 6 0 la b o r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s and a g e d i s t r i b u t i o n s . T h is t a b l e i s th e N a t io n a l d e a th and r e t ir e m e n t r a t e s f o r m a le s and f e m a le s f o r th e o c c u p a t io n s a p p e a r in g in t h e m a tr ix and d o e s n o t ta k e i n t o a c c o u n t th e p e c u l i a r i t i e s o f th e w o r k in g l i f e p a t t e r n s a s s o c i a t e d w ith th e v a r i o u s o c c u p a t i o n s . 27 N o t e , f o r f e m a l e s , th e s e p a r a t io n r a t e i s a g r o s s r a t e . I f fe m a le s r e t u r n in g t o th e la b o r f o r c e w e re d e d u c te d from t h i s g r o s s r a t e , th e n e t s e p a r a t io n r a t e w o u ld be c o n s id e r a b ly lo w e r . F o r e x a m p le , a s e x p la in e d in C h a p te r 2 , th e n e t s e p a r a t io n r a t e w o u ld be a b o u t 3 . 0 p e r c e n t. 67 Appendix B. Projections of the Population and Labor Force for States and Regions, by Age and Color1 The total resident labor force of the United States is expected to increase by more than 15 million persons from 1960 to 1970, and again by a similar amount from 1970 to 1980, and to rise to just over 100 million in 1980. This projected growth rate will vary considerably by geographic location. On a regional basis, the West is expected to show the greatest increase during the present decade—36 percent. The other regions will expand at somewhat smaller rates: 25 percent in the South, 17 percent in the North Central region, and 16 percent in the Northeast. These regional variations are attributable in large part to the expected continuation of differences in economic opportunity which affect the flow of population. The projections of the labor force by State which are presented here are consistent with the projections of the Nation’s total labor force published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics,2 except for the exclusion of Armed Forces stationed outside the country. Data for non whites are shown for 24 States and the District of Columbia.3 The population projections on which these labor force projections are based were prepared by the Bureau of the Census and are consistent with the Series II-B projections, Current Population Reports, “Illustra tive Projections of the Population of States: 1970 to 1980,” Series P-25, No. 326.4 This series of State labor force projections is only one of a possible set that could be developed on the basis of alternative assumptions in regard to interstate migration of population. The effect of such an alternative is discussed in the later section on reliability. 1 From “Labor Force Projections, 1970 and 1980,” M onthly Labor Review, October 1966, U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2 “Labor Force Projections for 1970-80,” M onthly Labor Review, February 1965, pp. 129-140, reprinted as Special Labor Force Report No. 49, and “Labor Force Projections by Color, 1970-80,” M onthly Labor Review, September 1966, reprinted as Special Labor Force Report No. 73. 3 Detail by color is not shown for the 26 States whose nonwhite population age 14 years and over was less than 100,000 in 1960. 4 These State projections are themselves consistent with Series B of the national population which were published in report Series P-25, No. 286. Series II-B refers to population Series B and migration Series II. In migration Series II, it is assumed that State migration differentials will gradually be reduced to zero in about 50 years, i.e., the number of persons migrating from a State will eventually be offset by an equal number of persons moving into the State. 68 The Present Decade Between 1960 and 1970, the total resident labor force of the United States is expected to grow by 22 percent—from 69.9 million to 85.3 million. (See table 1. Detailed projections by State are shown in table 2, pp. 70-96.)5 This increase of 15.4 million persons is very likely to be distributed unevenly both by region and by age, for two reasons: The continuation of past economic advantages of some regions, for instance, the West, and the rapid increase in the number of young persons of working age, which will be more important in this period than in the 1970-80 decade. Six of the States in the West are expected to show increases of 30 percent or more: Nevada, Arizona, Utah, California, Colorado, and New Mexico. (See table 3.) Two of these, Nevada and Arizona, may have increases of more than 50 percent. In the South, Florida is expected to increase about 42 percent—the only State outside of the West with a gain greatly in excess of the national average. Maryland, Idaho, Georgia, Arkansas, Delaware, Missis sippi, Louisiana, Virginia, and Texas will have a pro jected growth of 25 percent or more. Washington, New Jersey, North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Wyoming will experience gains equal to the national average of 22 percent. At the lower end of the scale, 25 States will have growth rates ranging from 10 percent to 21 percent. Only the District of Columbia will be likely to show a gain of less than 10 percent. Since the District is a small and strictly urban area, however, its growth trends cannot be compared with those of the States; growth of the metropolitan area takes place outside the central city. For the Nation as a whole, the number of young workers, 14 to 24 years old, rises very rapidly during the present decade, while the number of workers age 25 and over increases much less. The increase in younger workers reflects chiefly the high birth rate during the 5 For the 1960 data, the source is the decennial census, Apr. 1, 1960. The projected data for 1970 and 1980, on the other hand, are consistent with annual average levels from the monthly labor force (household) survey and July 1 population estimates from the Bureau of the Census. For this reason, changes during the 1960-70 decade are not strictly comparable with changes during the 1970-80 decade. Nevertheless, such comparisons indicate the broad outlines of the differences among States in projected growth during the two decades. Table 1. Population and Labor Force (Excluding Armed Forces Overseas), by age and Color, United States and by Region, 1960 and Projected 1970 and 1980 1 [Numbers inthousands] Population (July 1) Color, region, and age 1960 (April) All Classes Total, United States 14 years and over_____________________________ 126,277 14 to 24 years_____________________________ 26,839 25 to 54 years____ _________________________ 67,523 55 years and over_____ ____________________ 31,915 Northeast 14 years and over_____________________________ 32,561 14 to 24 years_____ ________________________ 6,149 25 to 54 years____ _________________________ 17,606 55 years and over___ ______________ _______ 8,806 North Central 14 years and over............................................ .............. 36,157 14 to 24 years_____________ ________________ 7,460 25 to 54 years______ _______________________ 19,096 55 years and over_____ ____________________ 9,602 South 14 years and over____ ________ ______________ 37,948 14 to 24 years....... ............._................................... 8,973 25 to 54 years____ ______________________ 20,076 55 years and over_______________ __________ 8,900 West 14 years and over........................................................... 19,610 14 to 24 years_________________ ____________ 4,257 25 to 54 years___ _________ ________ _______ 10,745 55 years and over____ _____________________ 4,607 N onwhite Total, United States 14 years and over.............. ........................... ................ 13,154 14 to 24 years____ _________________________ 3,297 25 to 54 years_____ ___________________ ____ 7,182 55 years and over___ ______________________ 2,675 Northeast 14 years and over....... ......... ................... .................... 2,163 14 to 24 years______________________ _____ 475 25 to 54 years_________________________ ____ 1,291 55 years and over........................ ........................... 398 North Central 14 years and over_________ _________ __________ 2,340 14 to 24 years_____ ________________________ 521 25 to 54 years....... ......... ............................ ............ 1,363 55 years and over_____________ ____________ 457 South 14 years and over.................................... .................... 7,209 14 to 24 years....... .................................................. 1,948 25 to 54 years_________________ ___________ 3,679 55 years and over____ _______________ ______ 1,582 West 14 years and over....... .................................................. 1,442 14 to 24 years....... ................................................. 353 850 25 to 54 years................................ ......................... 55 years and over_____ _____________ ______ 239 1 1970 1980 Labor force (annual average) Percent change 1960-70 1970-80 1960 (April) 1970 1980 Percent change 1960-70 1970-80 148,944 39,625 71,249 38,070 173,161 45,369 83,650 44,142 18.0 47.6 5.5 19.3 16.3 14.5 17.4 15.9 69,877 12,009 45,573 12,295 85,257 19,934 50,472 14,852 100,670 23,652 60,062 16,956 22.0 66.0 10.7 20.8 18.1 18.6 19.0 14.2 37,041 8,860 17,905 10,276 41,670 10,052 19,933 11,586 13.8 44.1 1.7 16.7 12.2 13.5 11.3 12.7 18,260 2,775 11,951 3,535 21,150 4,335 12,658 4,157 23,762 5,051 14,089 4,622 15.8 56.2 5.9 17.6 12.3 16.5 11.3 11.2 40,675 10,726 19,241 10,707 46,559 12,164 22,444 11,950 12.5 43.8 .8 11.5 14.5 13.4 16.6 11.6 20,047 3,455 12,805 3,787 23,399 5,523 13,576 4,301 27,362 6,534 16,042 4,786 16.7 59.9 6.0 13.6 16.9 18.3 18.2 11.3 45,702 12,963 21,599 11,140 53,393 14,592 25,671 13,129 20.4 44.5 7.6 25.2 16.8 12.6 18.9 17.9 20,398 3,770 13,436 3,192 25,569 6,189 15,338 4,043 30,514 7,133 18,744 4,637 25.4 64.2 14.2 26.7 19.3 15.3 22.2 14.7 25,526 7,074 12,505 5,947 31,640 8,560 15,603 7,476 30.2 66.2 16.4 29.1 24.0 21.0 24.8 25.7 11,172 2,009 7,382 1,781 15,139 3,888 8,901 2,351 19,032 4,934 11,187 2,911 35.5 93.5 20.6 32.0 25.7 26.9 25.7 23.8 16,384 5,228 7,934 3,223 20,638 6,777 10,013 3,849 24.6 58.6 10.5 20.5 26.0 29.6 26.2 19.4 7,399 1,311 5,008 1,080 9,671 2,493 5,837 1,341 12,219 3,335 7,337 1,547 30.7 90.2 16.6 24.2 26.3 33.8 25.7 15.4 2,791 769 1,497 525 3,596 1,098 1,808 691 29.0 61.9 16.0 31.9 28.8 42.8 20.8 31.6 1,312 216 913 183 1,748 395 1,110 244 2,222 585 1,322 315 33.2 82.9 21.6 33.3 27.1 48.1 19.1 29.1 2,930 907 1,459 565 3,803 1,264 1,829 710 25.2 74.1 7.0 23.6 29.8 39.4 25.4 25.7 1,310 203 922 184 1,699 420 1,049 231 2,243 637 1,317 29Q 29.7 106.9 13.8 25.5 32.0 51.7 25.5 25.5 8,704 2,932 3,968 1,804 10,585 3,523 5,067 1,996 20.7 50.5 7.9 14.0 21.6 20.2 27.7 10.6 3,928 747 2,574 607 5,025 1,365 2,947 713 6,155 1,643 3,774 738 27.9 82.7 14.5 17.5 22.5 20.4 28.1 3.5 1,960 620 1,010 330 2,654 892 1,309 452 35.9 75.6 18.8 38.1 35.4 43.9 29.6 37.0 850 145 599 106 1,199 313 732 153 1,599 470 925 205 41.1 115.9 22.2 44.3 33.4 50.2 26.4 34.0 See text footnote 4. 69 T a b l e 2. P o pu l a t io n a n d .l a b o r F o rce (E x c l u d in g A rm ed F o rces O v e r s e a s ), b y A g e , C olor ,1 a n d S e x , fo r R e g io n s a n d S t a t e s , 1960 a n d P r o jected 1970 a n d 1980 [Numbers in thousands] Age, color, and sex Population (July 1) 1960 (April 1) All Classes Both sexes, 14 and over.................. 126,277 Male Total, 14 and over........................... 61,315 14-24 years................................. 13,385 25-64 years............................... 33,052 55 years and over...................... 14,878 Female Total, 14 and over.......................... 64,961 14-24 years................................ 13,454 25-54 years................................. 34,471 55 years and over...................... 17,037 N onwhite Male Total, 14 and over........................... 6,279 14-24 years................................. 1,607 25-54 years................................ 3,389 55 years and over..................... 1,283 Female Total, 14 and over........................... 6,874 14-24 years................................. 1,689 25-54 years................................. 3.793 55 years and over...................... 1,392 A ll Classes Both sexes, 14 and over....... .......... Male Total, 14 and over___ _________ 14-24 years________________ 25-54 years______ _________ 55 years and over................. Female Total, 14 and over... _________ 14-24 years________________ 25-54 years________________ 55 years and over____ ______ N onwhite Male Total, 14 and over_____________ 14r-24 years________________ 25-54 years________________ 55 years and over__________ Female Total, 14 and over___ ________ 14-24 years........... 25-54 years___________ _ 55 years and over.............. See footnotes at end of table. 70 1970 1980 Labor force (annual average) 1960 (April 1) 1970 1980 Labor force partici pation rates (percent) 1960 Percent change 1960-70 1970-80 1970 1980 Popu Labor Popu Labor lation force lation force United States 148,944 173,161 69,877 85,257 100,670 55.3 57.2 58.1 18.0 22.0 16.3 18.1 71,795 19,846 34,807 17,143 83r380 22,786 41,212 19,382 47,468 7,643 31,296 8,528 55,105 12,264 33,348 9,494 64,246 14,443 39,524 10,279 77.4 57.1 94.7 57.3 76.8 61.8 95.8 55.4 77.1 63.4 95.9 53.0 17.1 48.3 5.3 15.2 16.1 60.5 6.6 11.3 16.1 14.8 18.4 13.1 16.6 17.8 18.5 8.3 77,148 19,779 36,442 20,927 89,781 22,583 42,438 24,760 22,410 4.366 14,277 3,767 30,152 7,670 17,124 5,358 36,424 9,209 20,538 6,677 34.5 32.5 41.4 22.1 39.1 38.8 47.0 25.6 40.6 40.8 48.4 27.0 18.8 47.0 5.7 22.8 34.5 75.7 19.9 42.2 16.4 14.2 16.5 18.3 20.8 20.1 19.9 24.6 7,769 2,549 3,729 1.490 9,791 3,315 4,771 1,705 4,528 822 3,005 700 5,761 1,519 3,432 810 7,333 2,010 4,424 899 72.1 51.2 88.7 54.6 74.2 59.6 92.0 54.4 74.9 60.6 92.7 52.7 23.7 58.6 10.0 16.1 27.2 84.7 14.2 15.7 26.0 30.0 27.9 14.4 27.3 32.3 28.9 11.0 8,616 2,678 4,204 1,733 10,847 3,461 5,242 2,144 2,872 489 2,002 380 3,910 974 2,405 531 4,886 1,325 2,913 648 41.8 28.9 52.8 27.3 45.4 36.4 57.2 30.6 45.0 38.3 55.6 30.2 25.3 58.6 10.8 24.5 36.2 99.2 20.1 39.6 25.9 29.2 24.7 23.7 25.0 36.0 21.1 22.0 Northeast 32, 561 37,041 41, 570 18,260 21,150 23,762 56.1 57.1 57.2 13.8 15.8 12.2 12.4 15,547 3,005 8,509 4,034 17, 575 4,344 8,688 4,543 19,754 4,957 9,780 5,017 12,122 1,616 8,099 2,406 13,501 2,526 8,362 2,614 15,248 3,040 9,436 2,772 78.0 53.8 95.2 59.7 76.8 58.1 96.2 57.5 77.2 61.3 96.5 55.3 13.0 44.6 2.1 12.6 11.4 56.3 3.2 8.6 12.4 14.1 12.6 10.4 12.9 20.4 12.9 6.1 17, 014 3,144 9,097 4.773 19,466 4,517 9,217 5,733 21,816 5,095 10,152 6,569 6,138 1,158 3,851 1,128 7,649 1,809 4,296 1,544 8,514 2,011 4,653 1,850 36.1 36.8 42.3 23.6 39.3 40.1 46.6 26.9 39.0 39.5 45.8 28.2 14.4 43.7 1.3 20.1 24.6 56.2 11.5 36.8 12.1 12.8 10.2 14.6 11.3 11.2 8.3 19.8 1,006 220 598 188 1,277 360 682 236 1,645 523 824 298 762 119 530 113 990 218 633 139 1,285 326 782 178 75.8 54.1 88.8 59.9 77.5 60.5 92.8 59.1 78.1 62.3 94.9 59.7 27.0 63.7 14.1 25.1 29.8 82.8 19.3 23.3 28.8 45.3 20.8 26.6 29.9 49.7 23.5 27.9 1,157 255 693 209 1, 514 409 815 289 1,951 574 984 392 549 96 383 70 759 177 477 105 936 259 540 137 47.5 37.9 55.2 33.5 50.1 43.3 58.5 36.1 48.0 45.1 54.9 34.9 30.8 60.6 17.6 38.3 38.1 83.8 24.6 49.2 28.9 40.3 20.7 35.5 23.4 46.2 13.3 30.8 T able 2. P opulation and Labor F orce (E xcluding Armed F orces Overseas), by A ge, Color,1 and Sex, for R egions and States, 1960 and P rojected 1970 and 1980—Continued [Numbers iu thousands] Population (July 1) Labor force (annual-average) Age, color, and sex 1960 (April 1) 1970 1980 1960 (April 1) 1970 1980 Labor force partici pation rates (percent) 1960 1970 Percent change 1960-70 1970-80 1980 Popu Labor Popu Labor lation force lation force North Central A ll C lasses Both sexes, 14 and over.................. 36,157 40,675 46, 559 20,047 23,399 27,362 55.4 57.5 58.8 12.5 Total, 14 and over......... .. ....... 14-24 years...... .......................... 25-54 years................................ 55 years and over..................... 17,588 3,651 9,407 4,531 19, 684 5,274 9, 546 4,864 22, 574 6,008 11,263 5,303 13,786 2,144 8,982 2,660 15,250 3,308 9,201 2,742 17,650 3,923 10,848 2,879 78.4 58.7 95.5 58.7 77.5 62.7 96.4 56.4 78.2 65.3 96.3 54.3 11.9 44.5 1.5 7.4 Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years______ _________ 25-54 years................................. 55 years and over___ ______ N onwph ^s 18,569 3,809 9,688 5,071 20,991 5, 453 9, 695 5, 844 23,985 6,157 11,181 6, 647 6,261 1,312 3, 822 1,127 8,149 2,215 4,375 1,559 9,712 2,611 5,194 1,907 33.7 34.4 39.5 22.2 38.8 40.6 45.1 26.7 40.5 42.4 46.5 28.7 Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years............... ................ 25-54 years________________ 55 years and over...................... 1,123 245 654 224 1,382 431 685 266 1,785 606 859 320 824 122 577 125 1, 019 241 634 144 1,345 365 807 173 73.3 49.8 88.3 55.5 73.7 55.9 92.5 54.2 Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years........ ........................ 25-54 years................................. 55 years and over...................... 1,217 276 709 232 1,548 476 774 299 2,018 658 971 390 486 82 344 60 681 179 415 87 899 272 509 117 39.9 29.6 48.6 25.7 Male Female 16.7 14.5 16.9 54.3 2.4 3.1 14.7 13.9 18.0 9.0 15.7 18.6 17.9 5.0 13.0 43.1 .1 15.2 30.2 68.9 14.5 38.3 14.3 12.9 15.3 13.7 19.2 17.9 18.7 22.3 75.3 60.2 94.0 54.0 23.0 76.2 4.7 18.5 23.7 97.9 9.8 15.7 29.2 40.7 25.4 20.2 32.0 51.4 27.4 19.8 44.0 37.6 53.6 29.1 44.5 41.4 52.5 30.0 27.2 72.2 9.2 28.6 40.1 118.8 20.5 45.5 30.4 38.3 25.4 30.6 32.0 52.2 22.7 34.8 16.8 19.3 10.6 Male Female South A ll Classes Both sexes, 14 and over.................. 37,948 45,702 53,392 20,398 25,569 30,514 53.8 55.9 57.2 20.4 25.4 Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years................................. 25-54 years................................. 55 years and over...................... 18,418 4,546 9,747 4,125 22, 046 6,612 10,435 4,998 25,700 7, 449 12,529 5,722 13,852 2,530 9,089 2,233 16,388 3.941 9,857 2,590 19,042 4,425 11,849 2,768 75.2 55.7 93.2 54.1 74.3 59.6 94.5 51.8 74.1 59.4 94.6 48.4 19.7 45.5 7.1 18.3 55.8 8.4 16.0 Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years................................. 25-54 years................................. 55 years and over..................... N on white 19, 530 4,427 10,328 4,775 23.657 6,352 11,163 6,142 27,692 7,143 13,142 7,407 6,546 1,240 4,347 960 9,181 2,248 5,481 1,452 11,472 2,708 6,894 1,870 33.5 28.0 42.1 20.1 38.8 35.4 49.1 23.6 41.4 37.9 52.5 25.2 43.5 8.1 28,6 Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years................................. 25-54 years................................. 55 years and over.................... 3,406 963 1, 703 740 4,141 1,447 1,880 814 5,083 1,741 2,473 2,380 487 1,507 386 3,006 868 1. 715 424 3,716 1,039 2,254 424 69.9 50.5 88.5 52.2 72.6 60.0 91.2 52.1 73.1 59.7 91.1 48.8 50.3 10.4 Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years................................. 25-54 years................................. 55 years and over..................... 3,803 985 1, 976 842 4, 562 1,485 2,088 990 5,502 1.782 2,593 1,127 1,548 260 1,067 2,018 497 1, 232 289 2,439 604 1, 521 314 40.7 26.4 54.0 26.2 44.2 33.5 59.0 29.2 44.3 33.9 58.6 27.8 50.8 5.6 17.5 Male Female Male Female 868 221 21.2 21.1 21.6 10.1 20.0 16.6 12.7 14.5 16.2 12.3 20.1 20.2 6.8 40.2 81.3 26.1 51.3 17.1 12.5 17.7 20.6 25.0 20.6 25.8 28.7 26.3 78.3 13.8 9.7 22.7 20.3 31.5 6.7 23.6 19.7 31.4 30.4 90.9 15.5 31.1 24.2 13.9 20.6 20.0 21.5 23.4 8.5 0.0 20.8 See footnotes at end of table. 71 T able 2. P opulation and Labor F orce (E xcluding Armed F orces Overseas), by Age, Color,1 and Sex, for R egions and S tates, 1960 and P rojected 1970 and 1980—Continued [Numbers in thousands] Age, color, and sex Population (July 1) 1960 (Aprill) A ll Classes Both sexes, 14 and over___ _____ Male Total, 14 and over____________ 14-24 years_____ _________ 25-54 years................... ........... 55 years and over............... . Female Total, 14 and over............... .......... 14-24 years_______________ 25-54 years----------------------55 years and over____ _____ N onwhite Male Total, 14 and over________ ____ 14-24 years............................ 25-54 years--------- ------------55 years and over__________ Female Total, 14 and over___ _________ 14-24 years_______________ 25-54 years............................... 55 years and over__________ All Classes Both sexes, 14 and over________ Male Total, 14 and over____________ 14-24 years_______________ 25-54 years--------- ------------55 years and over__________ Female Total, 14 and over____________ 14-24 years_______________ 25-54 years_______________ 55 years and over__________ N onwhite Male Total, 14 and over____________ 14-24 years.............................. 25-54 years...................... ........ 55 years and over------ -------Female Total, 14 and over____________ 14t-24 years_______________ 25-54 years______________ 55 years and over__________ See footnotes at end of table. 72 1970 1980 Percent change Labor force (annual average) Labor force partici pation rates (percent) 1960 (April 1) 1960 1970 1980 Popu Labor Popu Labor lation force lation force 1970 1980 1960-70 1970-80 West 19,610 25,526 31.640 ll, 172 15,139 19,032 57.0 59.3 60.2 30.2 35.5 24.0 25.7 9,762 2,184 5,389 2,189 12,491 3,617 6,137 2,738 15,352 4,372 7,641 3,339 7,708 1,353 5,125 1,229 9,966 2,490 5,929 1,548 12,306 3,055 7,390 1,860 79.0 62.0 95.1 56.2 79.8 68.8 96.6 56.5 80.2 69.9 96.7 55.7 28.0 65.6 13.9 25.1 29.3 84.0 15.7 25.9 22.9 20.9 24.5 22.0 23.5 22.7 24.6 20.2 9,848 2,073 5,356 2,418 13,035 3,458 6,368 3,209 16,287 4,188 7,962 4,137 3,464 656 2,256 552 5,173 1,398 2,972 803 6,726 1,879 3,796 1,051 35.2 31.6 42.1 22.8 39.7 40.4 46.7 25.0 41.3 44.9 47.7 25.4 32.4 49.3 66.8 113.1 18.9 31.7 32.7 45.6 25.0 21.1 25.0 28.9 30.0 34.4 27.7 30.8 745 180 434 130 968 312 482 174 1,278 445 615 218 562 95 390 76 746 193 450 103 987 281 581 124 75.4 52.7 89.8 58.5 77.0 61.9 93.4 59.0 77.2 63.1 94.6 57.1 30.0 32.8 73.2 103.1 11.0 15.4 33.6 34.6 32.0 42.7 27.5 25.0 32.2 45.6 29.1 21.0 697 173 415 108 991 308 528 155 1,376 447 694 234 289 50 208 30 452 121 281 50 613 41.4 189‘ 29.0 343 50.2 80 27.6 45.6 39.2 53.3 32.4 44.5 42.3 49.4 34.3 42.2 56.8 77.7 140.0 27.0 35.0 43.7 68.8 38.8 45.2 31.5 50.8 35.4 56.9 21.9 59.4 New England 7,582 8,628 9,828 4,331 5,044 5,767 57.1 58.5 58.7 13.8 16.5 13.9 14.3 3,628 751 1,943 934 4,119 1,096 1,992 1,030 4,708 1,258 2,307 1,144 2,833 428 1,856 548 3,207 695 1,924 588 3,726 857 2,234 635 78.1 57.0 95.6 58.7 77.9 63.4 96.6 57.1 79.1 68.1 96.8 55.5 13.5 45.9 2.5 10.3 13.2 62.2 3.7 7.2 14.3 14.7 15.8 11.1 16.2 23.3 16.1 8.0 3,955 748 2,046 1,160 4,509 1,085 2,084 1,340 5,119 1,240 2,362 1,517 1,499 287 918 294 1,838 459 1,003 375 2,041 517 1,089 435 37.9 38.4 44.8 25.3 40.8 42.3 48.1 28.0 39.9 41.7 46.1 28.7 14.0 45.1 1.8 15.5 22.6 60.0 9.3 27.7 13.5 14.3 13.3 13.3 11.1 12.6 8.5 16.0 86 21 51 15 117 36 63 18 161 55 82 24 68 13 46 9 96 25 61 10 133 39 80 14 78.1 61.5 90.8 58.4 82.4 69.7 96.5 58.1 82.9 70.4 97.6 60.7 35.5 70.8 24.8 21.2 42.9 93.6 32.6 20.6 37.5 51.5 30.3 34.5 38.3 53.0 31.8 40.5 90 22 52 16 129 38 70 21 180 57 93 30 42 8 28 6 64 17 39 8 86 26 49 11 46.6 38.2 53.6 35.8 49.6 44.9 55.8 37.1 47.7 46.1 52.4 36.2 43.6 52.6 73.3 103.6 35.3 40.9 29.8 34.6 39.9 50.5 33.6 41.9 34.8 54.6 25.4 38.4 T able 2. P opulation and Labor F orce (E xcluding Armed F orces Overseas), by Age, Color,1 and S ex, for R egions and States, 1960 and P rojected 1970 and 1980—Continued [Numbers in thousands] Pooulation (July 11 Age, color, and sex 1960 (April 1) 1970 1980 Percent change Labor force (annual average) Labor force partici pation rates (percent) 1960 (April 1) 1960 1970 1980 Popu Labor Popu Labor lation force lation force 1970 1980 Maine A ll Classes Both sexes, 14 and over................. 683 748 833 370 413 468 54.2 55.2 56.2 Total, 14 and over.......................... 14-24 years_______________ 25-54 years................................ 55 years and over..................... 334 76 168 90 365 105 165 94 406 116 192 98 252 43 159 49 273 66 158 48 308* 77 185 47 75.4 56.6 95.0 54.7 74.8 62.8 96.0 51.0 76.0 66.3 96.3 47.7 - Total, 14 and over.......................... 14-24 years................................ 25-54 years........... ................... 55 years and over..................... 349 73 173 103 383 98 170 115 427 107 194 124 119 22 72 25 140 35 77 29 160 42 86 32 33.9 30.3 41.4 23.9 36.6 35.2 45.0 25.5 37.4 38.8 44.3 25.6 Male Female A ll Classes Both sexes, 14 and over.................. Male Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years................................. 25-54 years............. ................... 55 years and over..................... Female Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years.................. ............. 25-54 years............................... 55 years and over....... .............. 11.5 11.4 13.4 9.2 38.6 1.6 4.4 53.7 - .6 - 2.8 11.3 9.8 16.3 4.4 13.1 15.8 16.7 -2 .3 9.6 34.6 -1 .7 11.5 9.8 14.4 8.7 20.8 11.0 18.4 56.3 6.8 18.0 251 307 364 58.0 60.0 61.1 18.3 22.3 16.4 18.5 45 109 56 248 68 118 62 291 79 143 191 42 115 34 228 52 140 36 77.3 56.3 96.3 57.3 77.0 62.2 97.3 54.4 66.0 78.4 97.6 52.6 18.5 51.5 8.9 10.9 18.0 67.4 10.0 5.3 17.1 16.4 68 162 25 105 32 21.2 10.1 19.3 23.4 21.5 6.5 224 43 113 264 65 120 79 306 76 141 89 89 16 55 18 116 29 64 23 136 34 76 26 39.9 38.0 48.7 26.6 44.0 44.6 53.4 29.1 44.5 44.8 53.9 29.5 18.1 52.2 6.1 16.5 30.0 78.9 16.4 27.1 15.8 16.4 17.5 12.7 17.3 17.0 18.5 14.3 54.6 57.1 58.6 15.2 20.5 13.9 17.0 210 68 Vermont 359 Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years................................. 25-54 years................................. 55 years and over...................... 132 31 66 35 154 43 72 38 178 48 90 40 Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years................................. 25-54 years................................. 55 years and over...................... 142 30 69 43 162 43 71 48 182 46 83 52 180 211 17 63 117 26 70 137 29 21 86 21 7& 2 54.6 95.5 58.7 76.1 60.5 96.2 55.3 77.0 61.6 96.0 52.8 ia 2 40.8 9.4 7.6 ia o 56.1 10.2 1.3 15.6 10.6 24.0 5.5 17.1 12.5 23.8 7 49 9 29 63 16 34 13 74 19 41 14 34.4 31.5 42.0 24.1 39.1 38.0 48.1 26.7 40.7 40.2 49.3 27.3 14.3 42.1 3.4 12.3 30.1 71.9 18.4 24.2 12.3 8.1 17.0 9.0 16.8 14.4 19.9 11.5 14.3 12.8 13.5 11.3 59.3 2.1 5.4 13.5 14.4 15.3 9.2 16.1 24.6 15.8 7.6 19.8 57.6 6.1 23.2 13.7 12.7 10.4 149 101 21 10 Massachusetts All Classes Both sexes, 14 and over.................. 3,740 4,150 4,683 2,129 2,434 2,763 56.9 58.6 59.0 11.0 Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years................................. 25-54 years................................. 55 years and over...................... 1,768 361 941 465 1,961 512 949 499 2,227 586 1,095 545 1,376 205 896 275 1,531 327 914 290 1,778 407 1,059 312 77.8 56.8 95.1 59.1 78.1 63.8 96.3 58.1 79.8 69.4 96.7 57.2 41.9 .9 7.4 Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years................................. 25-54 years................................. 55 years and over...................... 1.972 368 1,004 600 2,189 520 997 672 2,456 591 1,123 742 754 150 451 153 903 236 478 189 985 260 511 215 38.2 40.6 44.9 25.5 41.2 45.4 48.0 28.1 40.1 44.0 45.5 28.9 41.2 - .7 Female 13.9 12.5 9.2 597 315 Male 8.2 512 433 274 Female 9.4 New Hampshire A ll Classes Both sexes, 14 and over.................. Male 1970-80 1960-70 11.0 11.0 12.0 12.2 9.2 6.9 13.8 10.1 See footnotes at end of table. 73 T able 2. P opulation and Labor F orce (E xcluding Armed F orces Overseas), by A ge, Color,1 and S ex, for R egions and States, 1960 and P rojected 1970 and 1980—Continued [Numbers in thousands] Population [July 1) Age, color, and sex 19601) 1970 (April A ll Classes Percent change 1970-80 1960-70 1960 1970 1980 Popu lation Labor lation Labor force force Popu Labor force (annual averaee) pation Laborrates force(percent) partici 1980 (April 19601) 1970 1980 Rhode Island Both sexes, 14 and over.............. 628 698 759 360 396 426 57.3 56.8 10.2 8.6 7.4 Total, 14 and over...................... 14-24 years.......................... 25-54 years........................... 55 years and over................. 304 69 159 75 334 102 148 83 361 111 161 89 238 44 152 42 258 70 143 44 282 80 156 45 78.1 47.0 9.8 8.3 77.2 72.8 6.1 69.0 97.0 -6.5 96.4 4.6 53.2 50.7 10.1 -5.7 8.2 8.4 8.5 7.4 9.4 14.4 9.1 2.4 Total, 14 and over: 14-24 years.......................... 25-54 years........................... 55 years and over................. 324 60 169 365 87 167 398 94 181 122 23 77 139 32 80 38.0 36.7 47.8 13.8 36.2 44.5 12.6 40.9 35.5 .9 3.5 44.6 9.1 7.7 8.1 3.8 4.1 .9 Both sexes, 14 and over_______ 1,824 2,204 2,598 1,071 1,314 1,535 59.6 59.1 20.8 22.7 17.9 16.8 Total, 14 and over______ 14-24 years______ _______ __ 25-54 years------------------55 years and over________ 881 169 500 212 1,057 266 538 254 1,247 319 625 303 705 94 481 129 837 163 523 151 993 211 608 174 79.2 80.0 61.5 55.8 97.3 96.4 60.8 59.5 79.6 66.3 97.2 57.3 20.0 57.0 7.6 19.7 18.9 73.1 8.7 17.2 18.0 20.0 16.2 19.6 18.6 29.4 16.2 15.1 Total, 14 and over---- ----------14-24 years_____________ 25-54 years------------------55 years and over________ 944 173 519 251 1,147 272 559 316 1,351 325 639 386 367 67 234 66 477 111 270 95 542 41.6 38.9 41.0 130 38.6 294 48.3 45.1 118 26.1 30.1 Middle Atlantic 40.1 39.9 45.9 30.6 21.5 30.0 66.6 56.9 15.4 7.7 44.6 25.7 17.8 19.6 14.3 22.4 13.7 16.4 8.7 24.6 Both sexes, 14 and over_______ 24,979 28,413 31,742 13,929 16,105 17,996 55.8 56.7 56.7 13.7 15.6 11.7 11.7 Total, 14 and over—.________ 11,920 2,254 13,456 14-24 years.......................... 3,247 25-54 years------------------6,566 6,696 55 years and over............... 3,100 3,513 15,045 3,699 7,474 3,872 9,289 1,831 1,188 10,294 6,243 2,026 1,858 6,437 11,522 2,183 7,202 2,137 76.5 77.9 56.4 52.7 96.1 95.1 59.9 57.7 12.9 76.6 59.0 44.1 96.4 2.0 55.2 13.3 10.8 54.1 3.1 9.0 11.8 13.9 11.6 10.2 11.9 19.2 11.9 5.5 14,957 3,432 7,132 4,393 16,697 3,855 7,791 5,051 4,639 871 2,934 834 5,811 1,350 3,293 1,168 6,473 1,494 3,565 1,414 35.5 36.4 41.6 23.1 14.5 25.3 54.9 43.2 12.3 1.2 40.0 21.6 11.6 12.3 9.2 15.0 11.4 10.7 8.3 21.1 1,152 287 701 164 77.6 77.0 61.3 75.6 59.4 53.4 92.4 94.6 88.6 60.0 59.1 59.6 27.9 28.5 44.6 81.5 19.9 18.0 23.6 26.0 29.0 49.2 22.6 26.9 37.0 27.8 50.2 29.8 48.0 81.9 39.3 59.4 43.2 45.0 23.3 19.5 16.2 55.1 58.8 36.1 34.8 39.0 50.5 85.0 22.3 45.4 12.2 30.2 Male Female A ll Classes Male Female A ll Classes Male Female Total, 14 and over—................ 13,059 2,396 14-24 years_____________ 25-54 years_____________ 7,051 55 years and over.... ............ 3,613 N onwhite Male Total, 14 and over______ ____ 14-24 years.......................... 25-54 years............-............ 55 years and over................. 919 199 547 174 1,160 324 619 218 1,484 468 741 275 695 106 484 104 893 192 572 129 Total, 14 and over..................... 14-24 years....................... 25-54 years____________ 55 years and over___ ____ 1,067 233 641 193 1,385 372 745 269 1,771 517 891 363 508 88 355 64 695 160 438 97 Female See footnotes at end of table. 74 78.4 63.3 95.5 56.0 144 37.6 33 45.8 37.7 81 Connecticut 58.7 850 37.8 47.5 233 55.4 491 126 33.3 56.1 38.9 38.8 38.8 39.3 46.2 45.8 26.6 28.0 11.2 26.2 62.9 13.1 25.5 Table 2. P opulation and Labor F orce (E xcluding A rmed F orces Overseas), by A ge, Color,1 and Sex , for R egions and States, 1960 and P rojected 1970 and 1980—Continued [Numbers in thousands] Age, color, and sex Population (July 1) 1060 (April 1) All Classes Both sexes, 14 and over................ Male Total, 14 and over.......... .............. 14-24 years............................... 25-54 years............................... 55 years and over.................... Female Total, 14 and over......................... 14-24 years.............................. 25-54 years_______________ 55 years and over.................... N onwhite Male Total, 14 and over......................... 14-24 years.............................. 25-54 years......... ..................... 55 years and over.................... Female Total, 14 and over......................... 14-24 years......... ..................._ 25-54 years.............................. 55 years and over.................... A ll Classes Both sexes, 14 and over................. Male Total, 14 and over......................... 14-24 years............................... 25-54 years....... ...................... 55 years and over___ ______ Female Total, 14 and over........ ............... 14-24 years............ ............... 25-54 years................. ............ 65 years and over__________ N onwhite Male Total, 14 and over....................... 14-24 years...... ........................ 25-54 years............................... 55 years and over.................... Female Total, 14 and over......................... 14-24 years.............................. 25-54 years............................... 55 years and over........ ........... 1970 1980 Percent change Labor force (annual average) Labor force partici pation rates (percent) 1960 (April 1) 1960 1970 1980 Popu Labor Popu Labor lation force lation force 1970 1980 1960-70 1970-80 New York 12,389 14,203 15,790 6,999 8,109 8,970 56.5 57.2 56.8 14.6 16.1 11.2 10.4 5,882 1,087 3,218 1,577 6,683 1,568 3,348 1,768 7,434 1,802 3,736 1,896 4,595 572 3,050 973 5,150 883 3,220 1,048 5,744 1,058 3,607 1,079 78.1 52.6 94.8 61.7 77.1 56.3 96.2 59.3 77.3 58.7 96.6 56.9 13.6 44.2 4.1 12.1 12.1 54.4 5.6 7.6 11.2' 15.0 11.6 7.3 11.5 19.8 12.0 3.0 6,506 1,178 3,491 1,838 7,519 1,694 3,593 2,233 8,356 1,911 3,939 2,506 2,404 440 1,506 458 2,978 678 1,672 628 3,226 732 1,767 727 37.0 37.4 43.2 24.9 39.6 40.1 46.5 28.1 38.6 38.3 44.9 29.0 15.6 43.8 2.9 21.5 23.9 54.1 11.0 37.3 11.1 12.8 9.6 12.3 8.3 7.8 5.7 15.8 476 100 293 84 617 166 339 111 792 245 402 145 365 55 257 52 482 100 314 68 619 150 380 89 76.5 55.1 87.9 62.2 78.2 60.2 92.6 61.3 78.1 61.1 94.7 61.0 29.4 66.1 15.9 33.0 32.2 81.2 22.0 31.0 28.5 47.9 18.3 30.5 28.4 50.3 21.1 29.8 570 122 352 96 758 196 421 142 970 275 497 198 282 49 199 34 386 86 246 54 459 124 265 70 49.5 40.2 56.6 35.5 51.0 44.2 58.5 37.9 47.4 45.1 53.3 35.6 33.1 60.2 19.8 47.1 36.9 75.7 23.8 57.1 27.9 40.5 18.1 39.7 18.9 43.5 7.5 31.3 New Jersey 4,404 5,346 6,263 2,509 3,062 3,577 57.0 57.3 57.1 21.4 22.0 17.1 16.8 2,124 401 1,207 516 2,547 636 1,283 628 2,976 765 1,466 744 1,697 221 1,161 315 1,993 375 1,246 372 2,321 471 1,426 424 79.9 55.2 96.2 61.1 78.2 58.9 97.2 59.2 78.0 61.6 97.2 56.9 20.0 58.7 6.3 21.7 17.5 69.6 7.4 18.0 16.8 20.3 14.3 18.5 16.4 25.7 14.4 13.9 2,281 403 1,272 606. 2,799 647 1,377 774 3,287 774 1,562 951 812 146 529 136 1,068 235 630 203 1,256 277 710 269 35.6 36.3 41.6 22.5 38.2 36.2 45.8 26.3 38.2 35.8 45.5 28.2 22.7 60.4 8.3 27.9 31.5 60.2 19.1 49.1 17.4 19.6 13.4 22.8 17.6 18.1 12.7 32.1 167 39 99 30 220 65 117 38 295 100 146 50 129 22 90 18 174 40 111 23 234 62 141 30 77.2 55.8 90.6 60.5 78.9 60.9 94.9 60.4 79.2 62.7 96.6 61.2 31.8 68.5 18.2 29.0 34.6 84.2 23.9 28.8 34.1 53.0 25.0 29.9 34.7 57.3 27.3 31.6 187 43 110 34 256 72 137 46 344 107 175 63 91 17 62 11 126 31 80 16 159 48 92 19 48.5 39.2 56.6 33.6 49.4 42.9 58.1 33.8 46.1 44.8 52.5 30.6 36.7 68.4 24.6 36.4 38.5 84.6 27.8 37.3 34.7 48.4 27.0 36.3 25.6 54.9 14.6 23.4 See footnotes at end of table. 75 T able 2. P opulation and Labor F orce (E xcluding Armed F orces Overseas), by A ge, Color,1 and Sex , for R egions and S tates, 1960 and P rojected 1970 and 1980—Continued [Numbers in thousands] Percent change Population (July 1) Labor force (annual average) pation Laborrates force(percent) partici Age, color, and sex .1960-70 1970-80 19601) 1970 1980 (April 19601) 1970 1980 1960 1970 1980 Popu (April lation Labor lation Labor force Popu force A ll Classes Pennsylvania Both sexes, 14 and over.............. 8,186 8,864 9,688 4,420 4,915 5,449 54.0 55.4 11.2 9.3 10.9 Total, 14years........................ and over..................... 14-24 25-54 years_________ ___ 55 years and over................. 3,914 766 2,142 1,006 4,226 1,043 2,065 1,117 4,634 1,131 2,272 1,232 2,997 395 2,033 570 3,151 573 1,971 606 3,457 654 2,169 634 76.6 51.6 94.9 56.6 74.6 74.6 5.1 8.0 45.1 54.9 95.5 57.8 -3.6 36.3 95.4 -3.0 54.3 51.5 11.0 6.4 9.7 8.4 10.0 10.3 9.7 14.1 10.1 4.6 Total, 14 and over__________ 14-24 years............. ............ 25-54 years____________ 55 years and over________ 4,272 815 2,288 1,169 4,639 1,091 2,162 1,386 5,054 1,170 2,290 1,594 1,423 285 898 240 1,765 437 991 337 1,991 485 1,087 419 33.3 38.0 34.9 40.0 39.2 20.6 45.8 24.3 39.4 33.9 8.6 24.0 53.6 41.5 10.4 47.5 -5.5 26.3 18.5 40.1 9.0 7.2 5.9 15.0 12.8 11.1 9.7 24.3 Total, 14 and over____ ______ 14-24 years...... .......... ........ 25-54 years.............. ........... 55 years and over________ 276 60 155 60 323 93 162 68 397 123 194 80 201 29 137 34 237 53 147 38 299 75 179 45 17.2 80.1 17.9 54.1 6.7 4.5 13.3 9.5 22.7 33.0 19.4 16.4 26.0 41.2 22.4 18.8 Total, 14 and over__________ ......... 14-24 years................ 25-54 years......................... 55 years and over................. 311 68 179 63 371 104 186 81 457 136 219 102 135 22 94 19 232 182 43.3 61 32.6 43 135 112 52.2 36 29.9 28 East North Central 49.1 50.9 41.4 45.0 59.9 61.5 34.2 35.7 35.4 30.6 19.5 93.4 23.0 52.5 17.4 19.4 4.0 28.1 46.3 26.1 27.4 42.2 20.6 31.9 57.6 14.0 17.7 15.6 17.8 Male Female N onwhite Male Female A ll Classes Both sexes, 14 and over_______ 25,330 28,866 33,380 14,128 16,627 19,587 Total, 14 and over__________ 14-24 years....................... 25-54 years_____ _______ 55 years and over________ 12,308 13,954 2,530 3,708 6,717 6,883 3,062 3,363 Total, 14 years_____________ and over__________ 14-24 25-54 years_____________ 55 years and over________ 13,022 2,673 6,930 3,419 Male Female N onwhite Male 12,685 78.5 77.8 64.9 78.8 61.9 2,775 58.0 7,846 95.6 96.6 96.5 2,064 59.0 56.9 54.9 13.4 456.5 12.0 46.6 2.5 5.9 9.8 3.5 15.8 15.3 18.1 11.8 16.8 20.8 18.0 7.9 14,912 17,217 3,879 4,426 7,008 4,025 8,101 4,691 4,433 913 2,763 758 5,770 1,545 3,152 1,072 6,902 1,833 3,721 1,348 38.7 40.1 34.0 41.4 34.1 39.8 39.9 45.0 28.7 45.9 22.2 26.7 14.5 30.1 45.1 14.1 1.1 69.3 41.5 17.7 15.5 14.1 15.6 16.5 19.6 18.6 18.1 25.6 75.6 24.1 74.4 55.4 74.2 60.1 79.4 49.9 4.7 88.8 92.8 94.0 56.8 55.2 54.9 22.9 29.4 23.7 40,6 99.2 24.7 9.4 19.5 23.6 31.8 52.5 26.3 23.0 28.5 124.3 41.6 37.8 30.8 44.6 74.0 42.8 25.3 9.7 20.4 51.7 30.0 33.0 52.0 34.2 32.5 53.2 21.9 39.4 1,480 495 718 267 686 98 488 100 849 195 534 119 1,119 298 675 147 Total, 14 and over_______ ___ 14-24 years____________ 25-54 years...... ............ ...... 55 years and over________ 999 226 592 181 1,284 394 650 241 1,680 543 814 323 400 68 286 46 566 152 345 70 750 233 421 97 58.7 10,857 2,297 6,647 1,914 1,144 352 576 216 76 55.8 9,695 1,467 6,420 1,807 922 196 550 176 See footnotes at end of table. 73.4 60.6 75.4 72.9 57.1 48.9 90.4 92.7 88.5 56.8 54.9 56.0 8.3 16,163 4,276 8,128 3,758 Total, 14 and over__________ 14-24 years_____________ 25-54 years....................... 55 years and over________ Female 56.2 44.1 40.0 29.9 38.5 48.4 53.1 25.3 28.9 T able 2. P opulation and Labor F orce (E xcluding A rmed F orces Overseas), by A ge, Color,1 and Sex, for R egions and States, 1960 and P rojected 1970 and 1980—Continued [Numbers in thousands] Age, color, and sex Population (July 1) 1960 (April 1) 1970 Labor force (annual average) 1980 1960 (April 1) 1970 1980 Labor force partici pation rates (percent) Percent change 1960-70 1970-80 1960 1970 1980 Popu Labor Popu Labor lation force lation force Ohio A ll C l a sse s Both sexes, 14 and over.................. 6,767 7,818 9,098 3,724 4,463 5,276 55.0 57.1 58.0 15.5 19.8 16.4 18.2 3,266 669 1,801 795 3,760 1,006 1,879 876 4,392 1,149 2,241 1,002 2,571 385 1,723 463 2,937 620 1,817 500 3,468 743 2,168 557 78.7 57.5 95.7 58.2 78.1 61.6 96.7 57.1 79.0 64.7 96.7 55.5 15.1 50.3 4.3 10.1 14.2 61.0 5.5 8.0 16.8 14.3 19.3 14.4 18.1 19.9 19.3 11.3 3,502 721 1,871 909 4,058 1,067 1,924 1,067 4,706 1,202 2,242 1,262 1,153 236 723 193 1,526 402 849 273 1,808 469 986 352 32.9 32.7 38.6 21.3 37.6 37.8 44.1 25.6 38.4 39.0 44.0 27.9 15.9 48.0 2.8 17.3 32.3 71.0 17.4 41.2 16.0 12.7 16.5 18.3 18.5 16.5 16.2 28.8 251 52 147 51 311 94 157 61 399 128 197 74 187 27 132 28 234 52 148 33 307 77 189 41 74.5 50.7 89.4 55.8 75.2 56.1 94.3 54.8 76.9 60.1 95.9 55.4 24.3 77.5 6.9 19.4 25.4 96.5 12.7 17.4 28.0 36.4 25.3 22.0 31.0 46.1 27.4 23.3 271 60 159 52 347 104 175 448 140 219 89 157 40 97 205 59 118 28 41.3 31.3 50.1 26.1 45.4 38.4 55.4 30.1 45.8 42.0 54.2 31.4 28.0 73.0 10.1 30.8 40.5 112.3 21.8 50.5 29.1 34.3 24.8 32.1 30.5 47.1 22.1 37.9 M ale Total, 14 and over................ ......... 14-24 years................................ 25-54 years................................. 55 years and over...................... Fem ale Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years................................. 25-54 years................................. 55 years and over...................... N o n w h i ^e M ale Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years................................ 25-54 years................................. 55 years and over...................... F em ale Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years................................. 25-54 years................................ 55 years and over..................... 68 112 19 80 14 20 Indiana A ll C la sse s Both sexes, 14 and over................. 3,251 3,696 4,264 1,802 2,155 2,567 55.4 58.3 60.2 13.7 19.6 15.4 19.1 1,579 346 845 388 1,798 488 887 423 2,088 548 1,067 472 1,239 202 809 228. 1,400 305 857 238 1,639 358 1,027 254 78.5 58.3 95.8 58.8 77.9 62.5 96.6 56.3 78.5 65.2 96.3 53.8 13.8 40.9 5.0 9.0 12.9 51.1 5.9 4.3 16.1 12.5 20.3 11.7 17.1 17.4 19.9 1,672 355 871 445 1,898 501 884 513 2,176 560 1,024 593 563 113 350 99 756 193 427 136 928 228 528 171 33.7 32.0 40.3 22.2 39.8 38.5 48.4 26.5 42.6 40.8 51.6 28.9 13.5 41.2 1.4 15.2 34.2 69.9 21.8 37.6 14.7 11.7 15.8 15.5 22.7 18.5 23.6 26.0 85 19 48 18 104 32 51 20 135 45 66 24 64 9 44 79 19 48 12 105 29 63 14 74.9 49.9 90.6 58.6 75.8 57.8 94.7 57.0 77.7 63.6 95.3 56.4 22.5 71.7 5.9 15.0 24.0 98.8 10.8 11.9 29.9 4a 2 28.3 17.6 33.2 54.1 29.1 16.4 92 21 52 18 116 36 57 23 151 50 72 29 37 6 25 5 50 13 30 7 65 19 37 9 40.0 29.2 48.3 28.6 43.2 35.8 52.8 31.2 43.0 38.6 51.3 30.2 26.2 73.2 7.9 25.3 36.3 112.3 18.0 36.7 30.3 38.0 26.6 27.1 29.6 48.7 23.1 M ale Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years................................. 25-54 years................................. 55 years and over...................... 6.8 Fem ale Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years................................. 25-54 years................................. 55 years and over...................... N o n w h it e M ale Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years............................... 25-54 years................................. 55 years and over..................... 10 Fem ale Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years................................ 25-54 years................................. 55 years and over..................... 22.8 See footnotes at end of table. 77 T a b l e 2. P o pu l a t io n a n d L a b o r F orce (E x c l u d in g A rm ed F orces O v e r s e a s ), b y A g e , C olor ,1 a n d S e x , fo r R eg io n s a n d S t a t e s , 1960 a n d P r o jec ted 1970 a n d 1980—Continued [Numbers in thousands] Population (July 1) Labor force (annual average) Age, color, and sex 1960 (April 1) 1970 1980 1960 (April 1) 1970 1980 Labor force partici pation rates (percent) 1960 1970 1980 Percent change 1960-70 1970-80 Popu Labor Popu Labor lation force lation force Illinois A ll C la sse s Both sexes, 14 and over.................. 9,302 4,125 4,710 5,476 57.1 58.2 58.9 12.1 14.2 14.9 16.3 4,474 1,177 1,075 2,776 405 1,825 545 3,064 624 1,856 584 3,543 777 2,151 614 79.4 58.9 95.3 61.1 78.7 63.1 96.5 59.6 79.2 66.0 96.8 57.1 11.3 43.8 .4 9.6 10.4 54.0 1.7 7.0 15.0 18.9 15.5 9.9 15.6 24.6 15.9 5.3 4,200 1,032 1,980 1,189 4.827 1,215 2,258 1,354 1,348 265 839 244 1,646 438 861 346 1,933 529 986 418 36.2 36.7 42.3 24.0 39.2 42.5 43.5 29.1 40.0 43.5 43.7 30.9 42.7 - .2 16.9 12.8 65.1 2.7 41.8 14.9 17.7 14.1 14.0 17.4 20.6 14.5 20.7 330 71 196 63 412 126 210 76 550 191 265 93 245 38 172 35 307 71 195 41 417 114 253 50 74.5 52.8 56.5 74.6 56.4 92.7 54.5 75.9 59.6 95.4 53.9 25.1 77.0 7.5 21.2 25.3 89.2 13.1 16.9 33.3 52.1 25.8 22.9 35.6 60.6 29.5 366 84 215 67 470 142 241 87 629 210 303 116 152 27 108 17 213 62 126 25 278 101 144 33 41.5 31.9 50.2 25.6 45.2 43.8 52.2 28.3 44.2 48.0 47.5 28.7 28.5 69.1 12.2 30.0 40.1 132.7 16.6 44.0 33.8 48.3 25.6 32.7 30.8 62.4 14.5 34.4 7,219 8,092 3,496 688 1,915 893 3,892 990 1,923 979 3,723 723 1,983r 1. 017 M ale Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years................................. 25-54 years................................. 55 years and over...................... 2,222 F em ale Total, 14 and over........................... 14^24 years................................. 25-54 years................................. 55 years and over...................... N 22.1 o n w h it e M ale Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years................................. 25-54 years................................. 55 years and over...................... 88.1 21.6 Fem ale Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years................................. 25-54 years................................. 55 years and over..................... Michigan A ll Classes Both sexes, 14 and over.................. 5,350 6,144 7,097 2,944 3,477 4,103 55.0 56.6 57.8 14.9 18.1 15.5 18.0 2,620 547 1,451 621 2,983 819 1,468 696 3,437 929 1,717 790 2,051 308 1,386 357 2,278 487 1,415 376 2,652 582 1,653 417 78.3 56.3 95.5 57.5 76.4 59.5 96.4 54.0 77.2 62.7 96.2 52.8 13.9 49.6 1.2 12.0 11.1 58.2 2.1 5.2 15.2 13.5 17.0 13.6 16.4 19.4 16.8 11.0 2,730 585 1,490 655 3,162 858 1,504 800 3,660 963 1,728 968 893 195 565 134 1,199 332 673 194 1,451 391 805 255 32.7 33.3 37.9 20.4 37.9 38.6 44.8 24.2 39.7 40.6 46.6 26.3 15.8 46.6 .9 22.1 34.2 70.4 19.2 44.9 15.8 12.3 14.9 21.1 21.1 18.0 19.6 31.6 230 47 142 41 277 87 136 54 337 109 160 69 170 21 125 24 199 45 123 30 245 65 142 38 73.9 44.1 88.4 57.7 71.7 52.3 90.5 55.9 72.7 60.0 89.0 55.0 20.6 85.5 -4 .3 32.6 17.0 120.0 -2.1 28.5 21.7 25.2 17.5 26.8 23.4 43.6 15.6 24.7 243 54 149 40 309 97 154 58 387 119 187 80 128 32 80 16 173 45 104 25 36.4 25.7 44.0 22.3 41.3 32.5 52.0 27.6 44.7 37.5 55.4 30.5 27.0 78.9 3.6 43.6 44.3 125.9 22.4 77.7 25.3 23.0 21.3 39.8 35.5 42.0 29.2 54.7 M a le Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years.................. - ........— 25-54 years________________ 55 years and over__________ F em ale Total, 14 and over____ ________ 14-24 years................................ 25-54 years.-------- -------------55 years and over.................... N o n w h it e M a le Total, 14 and over......................... 14-24 years___________ ____ 25-54 years........................ . 55 years and over..................... F em ale Total, 14 and over.......................... 14-24 years.................. ............ 25-54 years........... ................... 55 years and over______ ____ See footnotes at end of table. 78 88 14 9 66 T a b l e 2. P o pu l a t io n a n d L a b o r F orce (E x c l u d in g A rm ed F o r c es O v e r s e a s ), b y A g e , C olor ,1 a n d S e x , for R e g io n s a n d S t a t e s , 1960 a n d P ro jected 1970 a n d 1980—Continued [Numbers in thousands] Population (July 1) Labor force (annual average) Age, color, and sex 1960 (April 1) 1970 1980 1960 (April 1) 1970 1980 Labor force partici pation rates (percent) Percent change 1960-70 1970-80 1960 1970 1980 Popu Labor Popu Labor lation force lation force Wisconsin A ll Classes Both sexes, 14 and over................. Male Total, 14 and over_____________ 14-24 years.................. ............ 25-54 years________________ 55 years and over__________ Female Total, 14 and over_____________ 14-24 years................................ 25-54 years........................ ....... 55 years and over.................... 2,744 3,116 3,619 1,533 1,822 2,165 55.9 58.5 59.8 13.6 18.9 16.1 18.8 1,348 279 704 364 1,521 407 725 390 1,771 473 881 418 1,057 167 677 213 1,178 260 701 217 1,383 314 847 222 78.4 59.9 96.1 58.4 77.4 64.0 96.7 55.6 78.1 66.5 96.2 53.1 12.9 45.6 3.0 6.9 11.5 55.6 3.6 1.8 16.4 16.3 21.4 7.3 20.8 20.8 1,396 289 714 393 1,595 421 717 457 1,848 486 848 514 476 103 285 644 180 341 124 782 215 415 152 34.1 35.8 39.9 22.3 40.4 42.6 47.6 27.1 42.3 44.3 49.0 29.5 14.2 45.8 .3 16.3 35.2 73.8 19.5 40.9 15.9 15.3 18.3 12.5 21.8 22.8 88 17.4 2.4 21.5 19.9 West North Central A ll Classes Both sexes, 14 and over________ Male Total, 14 and over_____________ 14-24 years________________ 25-54 y e a r s . --------------55 years and over................ . Female Total, 14 and over.......................... 14-24 years________________ 25-54 years_______________ 55 years and over............ ....... N on white Male Total, 14 and over.......................... 14-24 years________________ 25-54 years.----------------------55 years and over___ ______ Female Total, 14 and over_____________ 14-24 years________________ 25-54 years________________ 55 years and over__________ 10,827 11,808 13,179 5,919 6,772 7,774 54.7 57.3 59.0 9.1 14.4 11.6 14.8 5,280 1,121 2,691 1,468 5,729 1, 565 2,663 1,501 6,411 1,731 3,134 1,545 4,092 676 2,562 853 4,393 1,011 2,554 828 4,965 1,148 3,002 815 77.5 60.3 95.2 58.1 76.7 64.6 95.9 55.2 77.4 66.3 95.8 52.8 8.5 39.6 - 1.0 7.4 49.5 - .3 -2 .9 11.9 10.6 17.7 3.0 13.0 13.5 17.6 -1 .5 5,547 1,137 2,758 1,652 6,079 1,574 2,687 1,819 6,767 1,731 3,081 1,956 1,828 399 1,059 369 2,379 670 1,223 486 2,809 778 1,473 559 33.0 35.1 38.4 22.4 39.1 42.6 45.5 26.7 41.5 44.9 47.8 28.6 9.6 38.4 - 2.6 10.1 30.2 67.8 15.5 31.6 11.3 10.0 14.7 7.5 18.1 16.2 20.4 14.9 48 104 49 237 79 109 50 304 111 141 53 138 24 89 25 170 46 99 25 226 67 133 26 49.3 85.8 51.0 71.8 58.3 91.4 49.9 74.3 60.5 94.4 49.5 18.1 62.9 4.7 2.4 23.6 92.7 11.6 .3 28.2 41.2 29.3 5.5 32.7 46.4 33.5 4.4 218 50 117 51 264 82 124 58 338 115 157 67 114 27 70 17 148 40 89 39.5 28.1 49.8 27.2 43.4 33.0 56.5 29.9 43.9 34.5 56.7 30.1 63.6 6.2 13.1 32.8 92.3 20.5 24.3 28.3 40.5 26.2 15.5 29.8 46.7 26.6 16.3 18.4 16.8 19.2 11.9 54.9 4.7 .2 17.2 15.7 23.8 6.4 19.2 19.3 23.7 4.3 32.5 65.1 16.2 36.6 16.5 14.9 20.9 10.9 19.4 19.1 20.3 17.6 201 86 14 58 14 20 68.6 2.2 21.0 Minnesota A ll C lasses Both sexes, 14 and over____ ____ Male Total, 14 and over____________ 14-24 years________________ 25-54 years________________ 55 years and over..................... Female Total, 14 and over____________ 14-24 years_______________ 25-54 years_______________ 55 years and over_________ 2,344 2,652 3,098 1,304 1,544 1,841 55.6 58.2 59.4 13.1 1,148 241 592 315 1,292 353 615 325 1,515 408 761 346 893 145 566 182 999 224 593 182 1,191 267 733 190 77.8 60.0 95.7 57.7 77.3 63.6 96.4 56.0 78.6 65.5 96.4 54.9 46.1 3.8 3.3 1,196 259 598 340 1,359 372 605 383 1,583 427 732 424 411 104 227 81 545 171 264 651 204 317 130 34.4 40.0 37.9 23.8 40.1 46.0 43.6 28.8 41.1 47.7 43.4 30.6 13.6 43.7 1.1 12.7 110 12.6 See footnotes at end of table. 79 T able 2. P opulation and Labor F orce (E xcluding Armed F orces Overseas), by A ge, Color,1 and Sex , for R egions and States, 1960 and P rojected 1970 and 1980—Continued [Numbers in thousands] Population (July 1) Labor force (annual average) Age, color, and sex 1960 (April 1) 1970 1980 1960 (April 1) Percent change 1960-70 1970-80 1960 1970 1980 Popu Labor Popu Labor lation force lation force 54.3 58.0 60.1 5.6 12.7 9.6 13.8 194 523 149 78.1 62.6 95.9 58.3 77.9 67.7 96.2 56.0 78.8 69.4 95.5 54.7 5.7 33.1 -1 .9 - 1.0 5.3 43.8 - 1.6 -4 .9 10.5 6.5 17.8 11.7 9.3 16.9 - .7 486 134 249 31.9 34.7 36.9 22.1 39.2 44.0 45.0 27.0 42.3 46.8 48.2 29.8 5.6 32.6 -5 .6 5.5 29.8 68.3 15.1 29.1 12.9 5.2 21.0 1980 1970 Labor force partici pation rates (percent) Iowa A ll C l a sse s Both sexes, 14 and over.................. 1,941 , 2,051 1,054 1,189 279 548 273 736 123 455 158 775 177 448 150 1,148 286 518 345 318 70 179 413 118 206 2,248 1,352 M ale Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years................................. 26-54 years............................. 55 years and over..................... 943 197 474 271 996 262 465 268 999 203 485 310 1,055 269 458 327 1,100 866 1.6 F em ale Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years............................... . 25-54 years................................. 55 years and over...................... 68 88 102 8.8 6.2 17.6 12.9 15.9 Missouri A ll C la sse s Both sexes, 14 and over.................. 3 ,1 1 8 3 ,3 4 6 3 ,7 1 2 1 ,6 7 3 1 ,8 3 8 2 ,0 8 3 5 3 .7 5 4 .9 5 6 .1 7 .3 9 .8 1 0 .9 1 3 .4 1 ,4 9 6 312 760 424 1 ,5 9 5 422 736 437 1 ,7 7 6 475 853 447 1 ,1 3 3 181 716 236 1 ,1 7 9 256 697 225 1 ,3 2 0 295 811 213 7 5 .7 5 8 .1 9 4 .1 5 5 .7 7 3 .9 6 0 .7 9 4 .8 5 1 .5 7 4 .3 6 2 .2 9 5 .1 4 7 .6 6 .6 3 5 .1 - 3 .3 3 .3 4 .0 4 1 .2 - 2 .6 - 4 .5 1 1 .4 1 2 .7 1 6 .0 2 .3 1 2 .0 1 5 .4 1 6 .3 - 5 .5 1 ,621 313 810 498 1,7 5 1 426 775 550 1 ,9 3 6 476 874 586 540 102 332 106 659 164 362 133 763 195 423 146 3 3 .3 3 2 .5 4 1 .0 2 1 .3 3 7 .6 3 8 .5 4 6 .7 2 4 .1 3 9 .4 4 1 .0 4 8 .3 2 4 .9 8 .0 3 6 .1 - 4 .3 1 0 .4 2 2 .0 6 1 .2 9 .0 2 4 .9 1 0 .6 1 1 .7 1 2 .8 6 .6 1 5 .8 1 8 .8 1 6 .6 9 .9 122 27 63 31 141 44 64 32 179 63 82 34 85 13 55 16 102 25 61 16 135 38 80 17 6 9 .6 4 9 .6 8 7 .3 5 0 .8 7 2 .5 5 7 .3 9 4 .2 5 0 .3 7 5 .4 6 0 .3 9 7 .6 4 9 .1 1 6 .3 6 4 .7 1 .6 4 .1 2 1 .2 9 0 .3 9 .7 3 .0 2 6 .6 4 1 .4 2 7 .7 4 .0 3 1 .6 4 8 .9 3 2 .4 1 .5 139 30 75 33 164 49 77 39 206 68 94 44 57 9 40 9 73 15 47 11 93 21 59 13 4 1 .2 2 8 .4 5 2 .7 2 6 .9 4 4 .4 2 9 .9 6 1 .0 2 9 .7 4 5 .0 3 0 .7 6 2 .6 2 9 .8 1 8 .1 6 0 .4 2 .3 1 5 .4 2 7 .4 6 8 .7 1 8 .5 2 7 .0 2 5 .7 3 9 .8 2 2 .2 1 5 .0 2 7 .4 4 3 .5 2 5 .4 1 5 .4 M ale Total, 14 and over........................... 1 4-24 years................................. 2 5 -5 4 years................................. 55 years and over...................... Fem ale Total, 14 and over........................... 14 -2 4 years................................. 2 5 -5 4 years................................. 55 years and over...................... N o n w h it e M ale Total. 14 and over........................... 1 4 -2 4 years................................. 2 5 -5 4 years................................. 55 years and over...................... Fem ale Total. 14 and over........................... 1 4 -2 4 years................................. 25 -5 4 years................................. 55 years and over...................... North Dakota A ll C l a sse s Both sexes, 14 and over.................. 426 469 520 231 269 306 5 4 .2 5 7 .3 5 8 .9 1 0 .2 1 6 .6 1 0 .7 1 3 .7 218 52 110 55 240 70 111 58 265 75 130 59 167 30 105 33 180 41 106 33 198 44 123 31 7 6 .9 5 7 .0 9 5 .3 5 9 .1 7 5 .1 5 8 .8 9 5 .2 5 6 .6 7 4 .8 5 8 .0 9 4 .6 5 2 .6 1 0 .3 3 4 .7 .9 5 .8 7 .7 3 9 .2 .8 1 .3 1 0 .3 7 .0 1 6 .9 1 .4 9 .7 5 .4 1 6 .1 - 5 .7 208 50 105 0 53 229 66 102 61 255 70 118 67 63 17 35 11 89 28 43 17 108 31 56 20 3 0 .3 3 3 .6 3 3 .2 2 1 .5 3 8 .6 4 2 .6 4 2 .2 2 8 .4 4 2 .4 4 4 .7 4 7 .8 3 0 .3 1 0 .1 3 1 .6 - 3 .3 1 6 .3 4 0 .2 6 7 .0 2 3 .0 5 3 .4 1 1 .3 6 .7 1 5 .6 9 .0 2 2 .0 1 2 .1 3 0 .7 1 6 .4 M ale Total, 14 and over........................... 1 4-24 years................................. 2 5 -5 4 years................................. 55 years and over...................... Fem ale Total, 14 and over........................... 1 4-24 years...................-............ 2 5 -5 4 years.....................-.......... 55 years and over______ ____ See footnotes at end of table. 80 T able 2 . P o pu l a t io n a n d L a b o r F o rce (E x c l u d in g A r m ed F o rces O v e r se a s ), b y A g e , C olor ,1 a n d S e x , fo r R eg io n s a n d S t a t e s , 1960 a n d P r o jected 1970 a n d 1980—Continued [Numbers in thousands] Population (July 1) Labor force (annual average) Age, color, and sex 1960 (April 1) 1970 1980 1960 (April 1) 1970 1980 Labor force partici pation rates (percent) 1960 Percenit change 1960-70 1970-80 1970 1980 Popu Labor Popu Labor lation force lation force South Dakota A ll C la sse s Both sexes, 14 and over.................. 463 523 575 254 301 341 54.7 57.6 59.2 12.9 233 52 117 65 261 76 119 66 286 83 137 67 181 31 111 39 199 49 113 37 218 52 129 37 77.7 60.1 95.4 59.8 76.5 63.8 95.6 56.6 76.3 63.1 94.8 54.7 45.6 1.9 230 51 114 65 263 74 115 73 289 79 132 78 72 17 40 15 102 122 31.5 33.8 35.3 23.0 38.8 41.5 44.0 28.0 42.4 43.4 49.1 29.9 18.8 10.0 13.2 9.9 54.7 2.0 -3 .8 9.9 8.4 15.3 9.7 7.2 14.4 1.0 12.6 41.1 80.0 26.0 37.2 6.7 14.1 7.4 11.3 27.5 14.9 M a le Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years................................. 25-54 years................................. 55 years and over...................... 11.6 1.6 1.8 - 1.6 F em ale Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years................................. 25-54 years................................. 55 years and over__r................. 31 51 20 34 65 23 14.3 46.4 10.1 20.1 Nebraska A ll C lasses Both sexes, 14 and over.................. 996 1,104 1,204 556 652 735 55.9 59.1 61.1 10.8 17.2 9.0 12.6 488 102 247 139 537 148 250 139 587 162 286 139 388 64 238 468 115 277 76 79.5 62.8 96.2 61.9 78.9 68.5 96.8 57.9 79.7 70.9 96.6 55.1 10.1 44.8 1.2 .4 9.3 57.9 86 424 102 242 81 9.2 9.0 14.6 - .4 10.3 12.9 14.4 -5 .2 506 103 250 155 566 147 250 170 617 158 281 178 168 38 95 36 228 65 116 48 267 74 140 53 33.2 36.8 37.8 23.2 40.3 44.3 46.3 28.0 43.3 46.8 50.0 29.7 11.5 42.8 9.2 35.5 71.9 22.3 31.8 12.2 8.9 7.9 4.9 21.2 11.0 M a le Total, 14 and over......................... 14-24 years................................. 25-54 years..........................— 55 years and over..................... - 1.8 6.2 Fem ale Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years................................. 25-54 years................................. 55 years and over..................... 17.0 13.9 Kansas A ll C la sse s Both sexes, 14 and over.................. 1,538 1,665 1,822 847 980 1,117 55.1 58.8 61.3 8.2 15.6 9.5 14.0 754 164 390 200 809 234 368 206 883 249 419 214 593 102 371 636 162 355 704 181 405 119 78.7 62.1 95.2 60.0 78.7 69.3 96.3 58.0 79.8 72.5 96.5 55.6 7.2 43.0 —5.6 3.1 7.3 59.6 -4 .5 - .5 9.1 6.6 13.8 3.7 10.7 11.5 14.1 - .5 784 159 394 231 856 220 381 255 940 235 428 277 254 52 151 51 343 92 182 69 412 106 84 32.4 32.5 38.3 22.3 40.1 42.0 47.7 27.2 43.9 45.1 52.0 30.3 9.1 38.7 -3 .5 10.4 35.1 79.0 34.6 9.8 6.6 12.3 8.9 14.6 22.4 21.4 M ale Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years...................... ......... 25-54 years................................. 55 years and over..................... Fem ale Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years..............-................. 25-54 years................................. 55 years and over................ . 120 120 222 20.2 2a 1 See footnotes a t end of table. 81 T able 2. P o pu l a t io n a n d L a b o r F orce (E x c l u d in g A rm ed F orces O v e r se a s ), b y A g e , C olor ,1 a n d S e x , fo r R e g io n s a n d S t a t e s , 1960 a n d P ro jected 1970 a n d 1980—Continued [Numbers in thousands] Population (July 1) Labor force (annual average) Age, color, and sex 1960 (April 1) 1970 1980 1960 (April 1) 1970 1980 Labor force partici pation rates (percent) 1960 1970 Percent; change 1960-70 1970-80 1980 Popu Labor Popu Labor lation force lation force South Atlantic A ll C lasses Both sexes, 14 and over------------- 9,963 12, 671 15,186 55.2 57.0 57.5 23.2 3,679 6,145 2,863 6,636 1,243 4,394 999 8, 033 1,986 4, 809 1,238 9,420 2,229 5,812 1,379 75.7 57.3 93.2 53.1 75.0 61.6 94.5 51.6 74.2 60.6 94.6 48.2 22.3 48.8 8.0 27.5 11, 506 3, 048 5, 486 2, 973 13, 724 3,482 6,510 3,732 3,327 626 2,237 463 2, 792 4,637 1,130 716 5,767 1,351 3,460 956 35.9 30.0 45.0 20.9 40.3 37.1 50.9 24.1 42.0 38.8 53.2 25.6 1, 776 508 932 336 2,203 760 1,041 402 2,737 922 1,353 462 1,275 267 826 182 1, 636 468 949 219 2, 022 1,950 513 1,045 392 2,386 777 1,124 485 2,916 939 1,392 585 847 144 591 18, 036 22,224 8, 764 2,168 4,713 1, 882 10, 718 3,226 5,091 2, 401 9,272 2,083 4,970 2,219 26, 411 27.2 18.8 19.9 59.8 9.5 23.9 18.4 14.0 20.7 19.2 17.3 12.2 20.9 11.4 24.1 46.3 10.4 34.0 39.4 80.5 24.8 54.5 19.3 14.3 18.7 25.5 24.4 19.6 23.9 33.4 M ale Total, 14 and over-------------------14-24 years_______________ 26-54 years________________ 55 years and over__________ 12,686 21.1 Fem ale Total, 14 and over_____________ 14-24 years________________ 25-*54 years._______________ 55 years and over__________ N o n w h it e M ale Total, 14 and over_____________ 14-24 ^ears________________ 25-54 years________________ 55 years and over__________ 556 1,230 236 88.6 71.8 52.6 54.3 74.2 61.5 91.2 54.5 73.9 60.3 90.9 51.1 24.1 49.6 11.7 19.9 28.3 75.0 15.0 20.3 24.2 21.3 29.9 14.9 23.6 18.9 29.6 7.6 1,341 341 825 175 43.4 28.1 56.6 28.4 46.6 35.9 60.5 31.6 46.0 36.3 59.3 29.9 22.4 51.6 7.6 23.6 31.4 93.1 15.1 37.5 23.8 20.7 22.2 20.8 22.3 21.3 14.3 22.6 22.7 Fem ale Total, 14 and over____________ 14-24 years________________ 25-54 years........................... . 55 years and over............... 111 1,112 279 680 153 20.6 Delaware A ll C lasse s Both sexes, 14 and over________ 309 385 151 31 87 32 186 53 93 40 158 32 89 37 199 53 98 48 472 178 224 275 57.5 58.1 58.2 24.6 26.0 M a le Total, 14 and over____________ 14-24 years________________ 25-54 years________________ 55 years and over__________ 227 67 49 18 84 19 146 33 90 23 177 43 107 27 80.2 57.4 95.8 60.0 78.2 61.4 96.5 57.8 77.9 64.3 96.2 55.0 23.2 70.4 6.4 23.1 20.1 111 82.2 7.2 18.6 25.0 19.4 23.9 245 65 118 62 57 10 37 9 78 19 46 14 98 23 56 19 35.8 32.0 42.0 24.2 39.4 35.8 46.8 28.2 40.0 35.9 47.0 30.7 25.9 63.0 10.9 29.5 38.7 82.4 23.6 50.9 23.2 24.1 20.1 28.6 121 22.0 21.6 30.9 19.1 18.0 Female- 14 and over_____________ 14-24 years------- -----------25-54 years________________ 55 years and over__________ T o ta l, See footnotes at end of table. 82 24.8 24.2 40.1 20.6 T able 2. P o pu l a t io n a n d L a b o r F orce (E x c l u d in g A rm ed F orces O v e r s e a s ), b y A g e , C olor ,1 a n d S e x , fo r R e g io n s a n d S t a t e s , 1960 a n d P ro jected 1970 a n d 1980—Continued [Numbers in thousands] 1 Age, color, and sex Population (July 1) 1960 (April 1) A ll Classes Both sexes, 14 and over................ 1970 1980 Labor force (annual average) Labor force partici pation rates (percent) 1960 (April 1) 1960 1970 1980 1970 1980 Percent change 1960-70 1970-80 Popu Labor Popu Labor lation force lation force Maryland 2,155 2,717 3,282 1,242 1,596 1,922 57.6 58.7 58.6 26.1 28.5 1,053 233 607 213 1,314 381 655 278 1,579 454 779 346 843 134 578 131 1,032 234 631 167 1,231 282 7r49 199 80.0 57.6 95.1 61.5 78.5 61.5 96.2 59.9 77.9 62.1 96.1 57.7 24.8 63.3 7.9 30.7 22.4 74.4 9.2 27.4 19.2 18.9 24.2 1,402 371 694 337 1,703 442 820 441 399 75 267 58 564 138 338 89 692 167 402 123 36.2 32.5 43.0 23.0 40.2 37.0 48.7 26.4 40.6 37.8 49.0 27.8 27.3 61.7 11.7 34.3 41.3 84.5 26.5 54.1 21.4 19.0 18.0 30.9 67 105 39 271 91 133 48 123 21 84 18 159 43 94 73.8 51.2 58.4 75.1 63.1 90.0 55.7 76.4 69.1 89.6 53.2 26.9 64.0 11.4 25.2 102.2 22 207 63 119 25 29.1 12.9 19.3 28.3 34.3 26.6 22.4 225 71 112 42 290 93 141 56 78 13 56 106 26 65 14 128 35 75 18 45.0 29.5 55.8 31.9 46.9 36.6 58.2 34.0 44.3 37.7 53.4 32.1 29.3 65.6 12.4 33.3 34.7 105.3 17.3 42.2 28.9 32.1 25.3 33.0 9.4 16.2 17.4 17.7 24.9 19.5 5.7 17.6 25.2 20.4 -1 .5 20.8 20.4 M a le Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years................................ 25-54 years........... ..................... 55 years and over................... . 20.1 19.3 20.3 18.8 19.6 F em ale Total, 14 and over........................ . 14-24 years............................... 25-54 years........... .................... 55 years and over................... N on white % 1,102 230 621 251 22.6 21.5 18.9 38.3 M a le Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years................................ 25-54 years................ .............. 55 years and over..................... 167 41 94 31 211 88.8 30.4 47.0 26.0 17.0 Fem ale Total, 14 and over......................... 14-24 years......... ...................... 25-54 years------------- -----55 years and over.............. ...... A ll Classes Both sexes, 14 and over.................. 174 43 100 32 10 21.6 36.1 15.0 25.4 District of Columbia 579 636 739 369 403 474 63.7 63.4 64.0 10.0 265 56 148 61 291 76 147 68 343 95 176 72 206 33 136 37 224 46 139 39 264 58 167 38 77.6 59.2 91.8 60.3 77.0 61.2 94.2 57.4 77.0 61.3 95.0 53.5 9.7 35.6 - .5 313 62 167 84 345 84 166 95 397 103 190 104 163 26 107 29 179 41 107 32 51 126 33 51.9 42.0 64.1 35.0 51.9 48.3 64.6 33.0 52.9 49.6 66.1 31.8 133 28 82 22 173 49 93 31 228 70 118 40 104 16 75 13 135 28 88 19 177 41 113 23 78.5 55.3 91.6 59.3 77.9 57.5 94.4 60.9 151 33 92 26 197 55 103 38 253 76 126 52 80 11 59 9 106 24 67 14 138 36 84 18 52.7 34.4 64.3 35.0 53.9 43.8 65.2 37.9 M ale Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years................................. 25-54 years................................. 55 years and over...................... 10.6 8.8 40.0 2.2 5.3 F em ale Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years................................. 25-54 years................................. 55 years and over...................... N onwhite 210 35.9 1.0 13.5 10.2 56.3 - .3 7.1 15.0 21.9 14.9 8.9 17.1 25.4 17.6 5.0 77.6 58.9 95.5 57.1 30.7 74.4 12.7 42.1 29.7 81.3 16.2 45.9 31.4 41.8 27.1 27.7 30.8 45.3 28.5 19.7 54.5 46.9 67.3 34.5 30.2 67.1 12.3 46.9 33.2 112.9 13.9 59.1 28.9 37.8 21.5 35.9 30.3 47.6 25.5 23.9 - 10.1 M ale Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years................................ 25-54 years................................. 55 years and over..................... Fem ale Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years................................. 25-54 years................................. 55 years and over..................... See footnotes at end of table. 83 T a b l e 2. P o pu l a t io n a n d L a b o r F o rce (E x c l u d in g A rm ed F o rces O v e r se a s ), b y A g e , C olor ,1 a n d S e x , f o r R e g io n s a n d S t a t e s , 1960 a n d P ro jected 1970 a n d 1980—Continued [Numbers in thousands] Population (July 1) Labor force (annual average) Labor force partici pation rates (percent) 1960 (April 1) 1960 Age, color, and sex 1960 (April 1) 1970 1980 1970 1980 Percent change 1960-70 1970-80 1970 1980 Popu Labor Popu Labor lation force lation force Virginia A ll Classes Both sexes, 14 and over.................. 2,753 3,371 3,937 1,533 1,928 2,276 55.7 57.2 57.8 22.5 25.8 16.8 18.1 1,361 351 747 263 1,629 529 766 334 1,880 594 895 390 1,059 209 698 153 1,234 329 721 184 1,398 357 843 198 77.8 59.5 93.4 58.0 75.8 62.1 94.2 55.2 74.4 60.0 94.1 19.7 50.9 2.5 27.0 16.5 57.4 3.4 20.8 15.4 12.3 17.0 16.8 13.3 8.6 16.9 7.4 1,393 319 760 313 1,743 475 857 410 2,057 533 1,004 520 474 91 316 67 694 167 419 107 878 197 529 152 34.0 28.5 41.5 21.5 39.8 35.2 48.8 26.2 42.7 37.0 52.7 29.3 25.1 48.9 12.8 31.0 46.4 83.9 32.7 60.0 18.0 12.2 17.1 26.8 26.7 17.8 26.4 41.6 262 69 140 53 309 103 146 61 367 121 177 69 185 35 28 225 62 130 32 271 74 161 36 70.4 50.5 86.7 53.0 72.6 60.0 89.6 53.3 73.9 61.3 91.3 51.6 17.9 48.5 3.8 15.1 76.3 7.3 15.7 18.7 17.4 21.5 14.1 20.7 19.9 23.7 10.3 271 68 145 58 325 102 154 69 385 120 184 82 106 16 74 16 135 29 85 158 34 97 26 39.0 24.3 50.9 26.8 41.7 28.8 55.0 31.2 40.9 28.6 52.8 32.2 19.9 50.4 6.1 18.7 28.1 78.7 14.7 38.2 18.7 17.3 19.3 19.4 16.4 16.4 14.6 23.5 14.1 4.9 8.9 7.4 52.7 1.0 4.1 5.6 -5 .8 12.7 4.4 7.4 -3 .0 13.2 -1 .3 4.2 31.8 63.2 -5 .6 4.9 17.7 49.1 - 11.8 10.8 21.8 M ale Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years— ........................... 25-54 years................................. 55 years and over...................... F em ale Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years................................. 25-54 years................................. 55 years and over..................... N onwhite M ale Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years................................. 25-54 years................................. 55 years and over...................... 122 21.6 F em ale Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years................................. 25-54 years................................. 55 years and over....... ............. 21 West Virginia A ll Classes Both sexes, 14 and over________ 1,295 1,334 1,399 588 671 731 45.4 50.3 52.3 3.0 627 145 322 160 648 173 305 170 684 163 344 178 426 59 290 77 457 90 287 80 491 88 324 79 67.8 40.8 89.9 47.9 70.6 52.5 93.9 47.0 71.8 54.0 94.3 44.4 3.3 18.9 -5 .3 668 686 715 164 330 162 32 104 27 214 52 122 40 240 56 135 49 24.3 21.2 29.7 15.9 31.2 30.0 38.8 33.6 2.7 34.3 15.4 41.0 - 10.0 22.0 17.5 M a le Total, 14 and over_____________ 14-24 years________________ 25-54 years______ _________ 55 years and over__________ 6.2 - Fem ale Total, 14 and over_____________ 14-24 years________________ 25-54 years____ ___________ 55 years and over.............. ...... See footnotes at end of table. 84 151 349 168 174 314 198 221 20.2 12.2 7.9 T a b l e 2. P o pu l a t io n a n d L a b o r F orce (E x c l u d in g A rm ed F orces O v e r se a s ), b y A g e , C olor ,1 a n d S e x , f o r R e g io n s a n d S t a t e s , 1960 a n d P r o jec ted 1970 a n d 1980—Continued [Numbers in thousands] Population (July 1) Age, color, and sex 1960 (April 1) A ll Classes Both sexes, 14 and over................ 1970 1980 Labor force (annual average) Labor force partici pation rates (percent) 1960 (April 1) 1960 1970 1980 1970 Percent change 1960-70 1970-80 1980 Popu Labor Popu Labor lation force lation force North Carolina 3,119 3,693 4,210 1,754 2,145 2,444 56.3 58.1 58.1 18.4 22.2 14.0 14.0 1,518 417 813 288 1,794 565 865 364 2,041 600 1,005 436 1,154 235 754 165 1,345 342 809 194 1,500 353 936 76.1 56.4 92.8 57.2 74.9 60.5 93.5 53.1 73.5 58.8 93.1 48.4 18.2 35.4 6.4 26.6 16.5 45.4 7.3 17.5 13.8 6.3 16.2 19.6 3.3 15.7 9.0 1,601 394 863 343 1,899 527 919 453 2,168 559 1,053 556 600 116 411 73 800 189 496 115 201 944 593 150 37.5 29.5 47.6 21.1 42.1 35.8 54.0 25.4 43.5 35.9 56.3 27.0 18.6 33.7 6.5 31.9 33.3 62.3 20.7 58.7 14.2 6.1 14.5 22.9 18.0 6.5 19.4 30.7 337 107 169 61 416 154 189 73 498 168 246 83 234 52 148 34 306 95 170 40 366 105 219 42 69.4 49.0 87.4 55.0 73.4 61.6 90.3 55.0 73.5 62.2 89.1 50.6 23.4 44.7 11.3 19.7 30.7 81.9 15.1 19.9 19.6 8.9 30.6 13.7 19.7 10.0 28.8 4.4 371 105 194 72 446 155 202 89 524 169 249 106 148 25 103 194 47 118 29 225 49 142 34 40.0 23.6 53.3 28.4 43.5 30.1 58.5 32.6 42.9 28.8 57.0 32.1 20.5 47.9 4.6 23.2 30.9 89.0 14.8 41.8 17.4 9.2 23.1 18.7 M a le Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years........... ......... ......... 25-54 years............................ 55 years and over..................... 211 11.6 F em ale Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years................................ 25-54 years________________ 55 years and over................. N onwhite M ale Total, 14 and over..................... . 14-24 years................................ 25-54 years................................ 55 years and over....... ............. Fem ale Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years................................ 25-54 years......................... ...... 55 years and over..................... All Classes Both sexes, 14 and over.................. 20 15.8 4.4 16.7 20.0 South Carolina 1,579 1,897 2,183 896 1,109 1,270 56.7 58.5 58.2 20.1 23.7 15.1 14.6 769 233 403 133 920 321 426 172 1,060 341 511 208 585 139 373 74 695 207 398 91 212 784 472 100 76.2 59.4 92.7 55.6 75.6 64.5 93.2 52.6 74.0 62.3 92.4 48.0 19.7 37.5 5.9 30.2 18.8 49.5 6.6 23.2 15.2 6.2 19.8 20.5 18.8 9.9 811 431 170 977 290 466 220 1,124 306 544 274 311 63 211 37 413 109 251 53 486 120 301 65 38.3 29.8 49.0 21.9 42.3 37.7 53.9 23.9 43.2 39.3 55.3 23.8 20.5 38.1 8.1 29.9 32.9 74.4 19.1 41.7 15.0 5.6 16.6 24.2 17.6 19.6 23.6 230 80 110 40 284 112 125 47 339 120 166 53 159 41 96 206 69 112 25 240 67 147 26 68.9 51.6 87.8 52.3 72.6 61.1 90.1 53.3 70.6 55.7 49.7 23.3 40.1 13^7 15.9 66.0 29.8 16.8 18.1 19.7 6.9 33.7 12.9 16.5 -2 .5 30.6 5.4 262 78 130 53 310 1J2 137 61 357 118 169 70 102 20 68 133 39 78 16 154 43 94 16 38.8 25.7 52.3 25.1 42.8 35.0 56.8 25.7 43.0 36.8 55.8 22.7 18.1 42.4 5.2 14.0 30.5 93.9 14.3 17.0 15.4 5.7 23.2 15.5 11.1 21.1 M a le Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years................................. 25-54 yeart........................... 55 years and over....... ........... 12.8 2.6 F em ale Total, 14 and over___ _________ 14-24 years................................ 25-54 years................................. 55 years and over...................... N on white 210 M a le Total, 14 and over...................... 14-24 years................................ 25-54 years............................. . 55 years and over...................... 21 88.0 F em ale Total, 14 and over....................... . 14-24 years........... .................... 25-54 years.............. ........ ........ 55 years and over..................... 13 10.1 15.9 1.9 See footnotes at end of table. 85 T a b l e 2. P o pu l a t io n a n d L a b o r F orce (E x c l u d in g A rm ed F o rces O v e r s e a s ), b y A g e , C olor ,1 a n d S e x , fo r R e g io n s a n d S t a t e s , 1960 a n d P ro jected 1970 a n d 1*80— Continued [Numbers in thousands] Population (July 1) Labor force (annual average) Age, color, and sex 1960 (April 1) A ll Classes Both sexes, 14 and over............ . 1970 1980 1960 (April 1) 1970 Labor force partici pation rates (percent) 1980 1960 1970 Percent change 1960-70 1970-80 1980 Popu Labor Popu Labor lation force lation force Georgia 2,688 3,275 3,792 1,516 1,924 2,228 56.4 58.7 58.6 21.8 26.9 1,290 340 695 255 1,576 499 756 321 1,824 554 897 373 990 202 647 141 1,189 311 710 169 1,348 328 843 177 76.8 59.5 93.0 55.5 75.5 62.2 94.0 52.5 73.9 59.3 93.9 47.4 46.8 8.8 25.8 22.2 20.1 1,398 333 743 321 1,699 472 816 411 1,968 523 951 494 525 103 353 69 734 182 447 105 880 198 549 132 37.6 31.0 47.5 21.4 43.2 38.5 54.9 25.6 44.7 37.9 57.8 26.7 21.5 41.7 9.7 27.9 322 97 160 65 395 142 180 74 480 166 236 77 229 54 141 33 294 92 165 38 350 99 215 37 71.2 55.8 88.5 51.5 74.4 64.5 91.5 52.0 73.0 59.8 91.0 46.7 379 100 195 84 448 145 204 99 526 168 248 163 29 209 51 129 29 238 53 156 30 42.9 29.3 57.1 26.3 46.7 35.2 63.3 29.4 15.8 15.8 53.4 9.9 19.2 15.7 10.9 18.7 16.2 13.3 5.7 18.7 4.9 39.8 75.7 26.6 53.1 10.8 15.8 16.5 19.8 9.2 25.5 21.5 16.8 31.2 6.8 19.1 8.4 30.4 -4.1 21.6 17.5 16.0 11.4 20.6 1.6 M ale Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years.............................. . 26-54 years................................ 55 years and over...................... Fem ale Total, 14 and over.......................... 14-24 years________________ 25-54 years_____ __________ 55 years and over.................. . N onwhite 20.1 22.8 M ale Total, 14 and over______ _____ 14-24 years............. ........ .......... 25-54 years________________ 55 years and over..................... 45.7 12.5 13.7 28.5 68.2 16.4 14.7 45.2 31.2 62.8 26.8 18.1 44.4 4.7 17.8 28.6 73.5 16.1 31.5 22.8 Fem ale Total, 14 and over....... .................. 14-24 years................................ 25-54 years............. .................. 55 years and over.................... A ll Classes Both sexes, 14 and over............ . 111 111 22 13.7 3.0 Florida 3,558 4,916 6,397 1,887 2,672 3,566 53.0 54.3 55.8 38.1 41.6 30.1 33.5 1,729 361 891 478 2,359 629 1,077 653 3,049 812 1,425 812 1,251 213 835 203 1,711 394 1,025 292 2,228 508 1,370 349 72.4 59.2 93.7 42.5 72.5 62.7 95.2 44.7 73.1 62.6 96.1 43.0 36.4 74.4 20.9 36.8 36.8 84.7 22.8 44.1 29.2 29.0 32.3 24.3 30.2 28.9 33.7 19.5 1,829 352 945 532 2,556 601 1,154 801 3,348 786 1,501 1,061 636 110 431 95 960 233 565 162 1,339 337 770 232 34.7 31.1 45.6 17.9 37.6 40.0 38.8 ' 42.8 48.9 51.3 20.2 21.9 39.8 70.7 22.1 50.6 51.1 112.9 31.1 70.3 31.0 30.8 30.0 32.5 39.4 44.1 36.3 43.5 276 74 153 49 361 115 182 64 493 167 248 78 43 139 28 276 70 169 37 367 95 230 41 76.2 58.1 91.0 57.5 76.4 61.2 92.7 57.0 74.4 56.8 92.9 53.3 31.0 56.0 19.4 29.6 31.3 64.2 21.7 28.5 36.4 45.4 36.1 21.1 32.9 35.1 36.2 13.1 290 74 162 54 378 121 185 72 513 175 245 93 152 27 107 17 206 57 124 25 274 84 162 29 52.3 36.7 66.3 31.9 54.5 47.2 67.1 34.5 53.4 48.0 66.0 30.8 30.4 63.2 14.4 33.4 35.9 35.5 109.8 44.6 15.9 . 32.2 44.0 29.0 32.8 47.1 29.8 15.2 M ale Total, 14 and over.......................... 14-24 years................................ 25-54 years................................ 55 years and over....... ............. Fem ale Total, 14 and over_____________ 14-24 years________________ 25-54 years................................ 55 years and over.............. ....... N onwhite M ale Total, 14 and over................... ....... 14-24 years________________ 24-54 years................................. 55 years and over................... 210 Fem ale Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years______ _________ 25-54 years........................... . 55 years and over................... See footnotes at end of table. 86 T a b l e 2. P o pu l a t io n a n d L a b o r F orce (E x c l u d in g A rm ed F o rces O v e r se a s ), b y A g e , C olor ,1 a n d S e x , fo r R e g io n s a n d S t a t e s , 1960 a n d P ro jected 1970 a n d 1980—Continued [Numbers in thousands] Age, color, and sex Population (July 1) I960 (April 1) 1970 Labor force (annual average) 1980 1960 (April 1) 1970 1980 Labor force partici pation rates (percent) 1960 1970 1980 Percent change 1960-70 1970-80 Popu Labor Popu Labor lation force lation force East South Central All Classes Both sexes, 14 and over.................. 8,267 9,561 10,802 4,244 5,185 6,061 51.3 54.2 56.1 15.7 22.2 13.0 16.9 3,988 1,012 2,041 935 4,607 1,369 2,173 1,064 5,220 1,478 2,584 1,158 2,908 525 1,883 500 3,318 751 2,039 528 3,771 813 2,427 531 72.9 51.8 92.2 53.5 72.0 54.8 93.8 49.6 72.2 55.0 93.9 45.9 15.5 35.3 6.5 13.8 14.1 43.1 8.3 5.5 13.3 7.9 18.9 13.7 8.2 19.0 4,279 998 2,209 1,072 4,955 1,347 2,303 1,305 5,582 1,443 2,646 1,492 1,336 258 879 199 1,867 464 1,117 285 2,290 531 1,413 346 31.2 25.9 39.8 18.6 37.7 34.5 48.5 21.9 41.0 36.8 53.4 23.2 15.8 34.9 4.3 39.7 79.9 27.1 43.5 12.7 7.2 14.9 14.3 22.7 14.4 26.5 781 225 360 197 921 331 391 198 1,098 379 528 191 529 108 318 103 650 189 359 67.7 47.9 88.5 52.5 70.5 57.1 91.6 51.5 71.0 55.1 91.1 46.9 17.8 47.1 8.7 22.7 75.1 102 780 208 481 90 1.0 12.6 - 1.0 19.2 14.4 34.9 -3 .6 10.4 34.2 901 234 444 223 1,038 342 449 246 1,207 392 556 259 338 57 224 56 424 104 253 67 498 115 317 65 37.5 24.5 50.4 25.3 40.9 30.4 56.3 27.4 41.3 29.4 57.0 25.3 15.2 46.3 1.2 10.5 25.7 81.1 13.0 19.9 16.3 14.5 23.8 5.1 17.3 11.1 25.3 3.1 11.6 17.8 10.1 16.0 10.4 31.5 9.3 36.9 4.2 9.8 6.1 13.9 6.7 8.9 14.4 M ale Total, 14 and over....................... 14-24 years................................ 25-54 years................................ 55 years and over...................... 8.8 .6 Fem ale Total, 14 and over..................... . 14-24 years________________ 25-54 years................................ 55 years and over..................... N onwhite 21.8 21.2 M ale Total, 14 and over....................... 14-24 years................................ 25-54 years............................. 55 years and over..................... 20.0 - 12.2 F em ale Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years______ _________ 25-54 years...................... .......... 55 years and over................. A ll Classes Both sexes, 14 and over.................. Kentucky 2,111 2,357 2,595 1,034 1,218 1,413 49.0 51.7 54.4 1,036 259 522 256 1,144 340 527 277 1,256 361 600 296 743 136 475 133 812 186 495 131 202 901 566 133 71.7 52.4 91.1 51.8 71.0 54.6 93.9 47.4 71.7 56.0 94.3 45.0 321 556 336 1,339 339 623 377 291 56 186 50 406 102 236 512 126 302 84 27.1 23.1 34.0 17.3 33.5 31.8 42.5 20.3 38.2 37.2 48.5 39.4 82.0 27.2 37.1 10.4 5.7 22.2 32.5 1.9 17.1 12.1 12.1 26.0 23.9 27.9 22.7 71 16 35 75 24 31 19 84 30 36 18 48 9 30 53 16 28 9 62 33 71.6 65.6 90.4 48.4 5.2 74.0 50.9 92.5 - 10.1 46.9 -5 .3 10.5 85.6 5.5 - 6.8 22.1 8 53.4 86.0 49.2 11.9 14.4 -5 .4 15.7 27.0 17.1 -8 .3 77 16 39 85 24 38 23 97 30 44 24 31 4 36 41 11 23 7 40.2 27.6 51.5 28.8 42.6 34.2 55.5 30.5 42.4 37.2 53.1 29.6 17.0 88.5 3.6 11.3 14.7 24.1 15.4 4.0 14.1 35.1 10.5 .7 M ale Total, 14 and over....... .................. 14-24 years................................. 25-54 years...... ......................... 55 years and over..................... 1.0 8.2 -.8 11.0 1.2 Fem ale Total, 14 and over....... ................ 14-24 years................................. 25-54 years______ _________ 55 years and over...................... N onwhite 1, 074 242 545 287 1,212 68 12.8 M ale Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years............................... 25-54 years............................. 55 years and over...................... 20 10 20 68.1 68.2 Fem ale Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years............................. i. 25-54 years................................. 55 years and over___a............. 22 20 6 8 21 7 10.2 52.6 -3 .8 5.1 See footnotes at end of table. 87 T a b l e 2. P o pu l a t io n a n d L a b o r F o rce (E x c l u d in g A rm ed F o rces O v e r se a s ), b y A g e , C olor ,1 a n d S e x , f o r R e g io n s a n d S t a t e s , 1960 a n d P ro jected 1970 a n d 1980—Continued [Numbers in thousands] Age, color, and sex Population (July 1) 1960 (April 1) All Classes Both sexes, 14 and over____ ____ 1970 1980 Labor force (annual average) Labor force partici pation rates (percent) 1960 (April 1) 1960 1970 1980 1970 Percent change 1960-70 1970-80 1980 Popu Labor Popu Labor lation force lation force Tennessee 2,499 2,929 3,287 1,314 1,617 1,860 52.6 55.2 56.6 17.2 23.1 12.2 15.0 1,199 293 630 275 1,407* 400 682 325 1,587 427 797 362 887 153 583 150 1,016 215 637 164 1,143 232 743 168 74.0 52.4 92.5 54.6 72.2 53.8 93.4 50.4 72.0 54.3 93.2 46.3 17.4 36.5 8.2 18.0 14.5 39.9 9.2 8.9 6.9 16.9 11.4 12.5 7.9 16.7 2.4 1,300 295 685 321 1,522 399 720 402 1,700 422 809 469 427 82 283 61 601 147 362 92 717 160 442 115 32.8 27.8 41.3 19.2 39.5 36.8 50.3 23.0 42.2 38.0 54.6 24.6 17.0 35.5 5.1 25.4 41.0 79.3 27.8 50.3 11.7 5.6 12.4 16.4 19.3 9.1 24.7 77 23 143 39 82 23 170 45 104 88.1 69.2 48.1 52.8 54.4 88.4 49.2 67.2 52.9 86.4 44.4 19.6 59.8 5.5 7.0 17.8 80.7 5.7 82 12 57 14 103 23 62 18 119 29 72 18 40.8 25.3 53.6 28.3 42.8 31.2 57.8 30.5 42.1 32.0 55.8 28.1 M ale Total, 14 and over_____________ 14-24 years________________ 25-54 years............................... 55 years and over................ . 12.8 F em ale Total, 14 and over_____________ 14-24 years________________ 25-54 years________________ 55 years and over...................... N onwhite 22.0 M a le Total, 14 and over....... ................... 14-24 years................................ 25-54 years................................ 55 years and over...................... 176 45 88 44 71 92 47 253 85 120 47 240 75 107 58 283 90 130 63 211 122 21 21 68.1 - .1 19.9 30.3 .7 18.6 16.7 27.3 -9 .2 18.7 58.4 1.0 18.1 24.6 95.2 9.0 27.4 18.0 19.8 21.7 8.9 22.8 20.2 F em ale Total, 14 and over.............. ........... 14-24 years................................ 25-54 years................................ 55 years and over...................... 202 47 106 49 15.9 17.7 .4 Alabama All Classes Both sexes, 14 and over.................. 2,218 2,580 2,980 1,153 1,415 1,684 52.0 54.8 56.5 16.3 22.7 15.5 19.1 1,060 270 556 234 1,239 365 598 275 1,440 400 731 309 779 139 516 125 898 200 561 138 1,042 214 686 143 73.6 51.4 92.8 53.3 72.5 54.7 93.8 50.0 72.4 53.3 93.8 46.2 16.9 35.3 7.6 17.8 15.2 43.9 8.6 10.4 16.3 9.6 22.3 16.1 6.9 22.4 3.6 1,158 277 607 273 1,341 369 631 341 1,540 401 739 400 373 73 250 50 517 128 313 76 642 147 403 92 32.2 26.4 41.1 18.5 38.5 34.8 49.6 22.2 41.7 36.6 54.5 23.1 15.8 33.0 3.9 25.1 38.4 75.0 25.3 50.1 14.8 8.7 17.2 17.0 24.2 14.4 28.9 280 83 130 66 333 120 145 69 400 135 197 69 188 40 115 34 231 65 132 35 276 65 179 32 67.2 47.5 88.0 50.9 69.5 54.0 90.9 51.0 68.9 48.4 90.7 46.7 19.1 43.2 11.4 4.0 23.2 63.0 15.0 4.1 12.9 35.9 - .1 - 8.6 329 88 163 78 375 124 164 87 434 139 202 93 124 22 83 19 155 38 94 23 180 40 118 23 37.5 25.0 50.7 24.2 41.3 30.6 57.2 26.7 41.4 28.6 58.3 24.1 13.9 40.8 .7 11.3 25.5 72.3 13.7 22.7 15.8 12.0 23.1 7.2 16.1 4.6 25.4 -3.1 M ale Total, 14 and over....... .................. 14^24 years............. .................. 25-54 years............................... 55 years and over__________ 12.1 F em ale Total. 14 and over........................... 14-24 years________________ 25-54 years.................. .............. 55 years and over..................... N onwhite 21.8 M ale Total. 14 and over....................... 14-24 years................................ 25-54 years................................ 55 years and over..................... 20.2 19.3 1.2 35.5 Fem ale Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years................................. 25-54 years................................. 55 years and over___ ______ See footnotes at end of table. 88 T a b le 2. P o p u l a t io n R a n d L a b o r e g io n s a n d F S o r c e ta t e s , (E x c l u d in g an d 1960 P A rm ed F o r c es r o je c t e d 1970 O v e r sea s a n d ), by A g e , C 1980—Continued o lo r ,1 a n d S e x , fo r [Numbers in thousands] Population (July 1) Labor force (annual average) Age, color, and sex 1960 (April 1) 1970 1980 1960 (April 1) 1980 1970 Labor force partici pation rates (percent) 1960 1970 Percent change 1960-70 1970-80 1980 Popu Labor Popu Labor lation force lation force Mississippi A ll C la sses Both sexes, 14 and over................. 1,439 1,696 1,939 743 935 1,104 51.6 55.1 56.9 17.8 25.9 14.4 18.0 693 190 333 170 817 264 366 187 936 289 455 192 498 97 308 93 592 151 346 95 684 165 431 88 71.8 50.8 92.5 54.6 72.5 57.1 94.7 51.0 73.1 57.1 94.7 45.9 17.8 38.7 9.8 9.8 19.0 55.9 12.4 2.5 14.6 9.4 24.6 15.6 9.6 24.6 -7 .5 746 184 371 191 879 257 396 225 1,003 281 475 247 245 47 161 37 343 87 207 49 419 98 267 55 32.8 25.5 43.3 19.5 39.0 33.9 52.1 41.8 34.9 56.1 86.1 22.1 17.9 39.8 6.8 18.3 40.0 28.5 31.7 14.1 9.2 19.8 9.7 255 81 107 66 302 116 123 64 361 129 175 57 171 38 97 36 70 117 35 272 78 166 28 67.3 47.3 90.0 54.8 73.2 60.1 95.2 54.5 75.3 60.4 94.7 49.3 18.7 43.4 14.3 -4 .1 29.1 19.4 82.2 11.0 42.5 20.8 -4 .6 -10.2 11.7 41.8 -18.8 292 83 136 73 338 120 141 78 392 134 181 78 130 34 77 19 158 36 104 18 34.4 23.0 47.4 23.2 38.6 28.8 54.5 24.9 40.2 26.9 57.4 22.9 15.6 44.1 3.3 6.2 29.6 80.7 18.7 13.8 16.2 11.9 28.5 .4 20.9 4.5 35.4 -7 .6 M ale Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years................................. 25-54 years................................. 55 years and over...................... 2.6 F em ale Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years................................. 25-54 years................................. 55 years and over.............. — N 21.8 22.2 12.4 29.0 11.4 o n w h it e M ale Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years................................. 25-54 years................................. 55 years and over...................... 221 22.8 F em ale Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years................................. 25-54 years................................. 55 years and over..................... 101 19 65 17 West South Central A ll C l a sse s Both sexes, 14 and over.................. 11,645 13,917 16,180 6,192 7,714 9,267 53.2 55.4 57.3 19.5 24.6 16.3 20.1 5,666 1,366 2,993 1,307 6,721 2,016 3,172 1,533 7,794 2,292 3,800 1,701 4,308 762 2,813 733 5,037 1,204 3,009 824 5,852 1,383 3,611 858 76.0 55.8 94.0 56.1 74.9 59.7 94.9 53.8 75.1 60.3 95.0 50.4 18.6 47.6 6.0 17.3 16.9 57.9 7.0 12.4 16.0 13.7 19.8 20.0 11.0 16.2 14.9 4.0 5,979 1,346 3,150 1,484 7,196 1,957 3,375 1,863 8,386 2,217 3,986 2,183 1,884 356 1,230 297 2,677 654 1,572 451 3,415 826 2,022 568 31.5 28.5 39.1 20. d 37.2 33.4 46.6 24.2 40.7 37.2 50.7 26.0 20.3 45.4 7.2 35.6 42.1 83.6 27.8 51.7 1 6 -5 13.3 18.1 17.2 27.6 26.2 28.6 26.1 849 230 411 208 1,017 356 448 213 1,248 441 592 215 576 112 363 101 721 211 407 103 915 275 542 98 67.8 48.5 88.4 48.6 70.9 59.3 91.0 48.0 73.3 62.3 91.6 45.6 19.9 54.8 9.0 2.8 25.2 89.2 12.1 1.5 22.7 23.8 32.3 26.9 30.1 33.1 -4 .2 953 238 487 228 1,138 365 514 259 1,379 450 645 284 363 59 252 53 481 114 298 69 599 148 378 73 38.1 24.6 51.7 23.2 42.3 31.3 58.1 26.5 43.4 32.8 58.6 25.9 19.5 53.6 5.5 13.8 32.5 95.1 18.5 29.6 23.3 25.5 9.5 M ale Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years................................. 25-54 years................................. 55 years and over...................... F em ale Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years................................. 25-54 years................................. 55 years and over..................... N o n w h it e M ale Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years................................. 25-54 years................................. 55 years and over...................... .8 F em ale Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years................................. 25-54 years................................. 55 years and over...................... 21.2 24.6 29.2 26.6 7.1 See footnotes at end of table. 89 T a b le 2. P o p u l a t io n R an d L a b o r e g io n s a n d F S o r ce ta t e s , (E x c l u d in g an d 1960 P A rm ed F o r c es r o je c t e d 1970 O v e r sea s an d ), by A g e , C 1980—Continued ,1 o lo r an d S e x , fo r [Numbers in thousands] Population (July 1) Labor force (annual average) Age, color, and sex 1960 (April 1) 1970 1980 1960 (April 1) 1970 1980 Labor force partici pation rates (percent) 1960 1970 1980 Percent change 1960-70 1970-80 Popu Labor Popu Labor lation force lation force Arkansas A ll C l a sse s Both sexes, 14 and over............ Male Total, 14 and over_____________ 14-24 years________________ 25-54 years________________ 55 years and over__________ Female Total, 14 and over_____________ 14-24 years_____________ 25-54 years_____ ________ 55 years and over________ N 1,249 1,459 1,616 610 769 894 48.8 52.7 55.4 16.8 26.1 10.8 16.3 606 144 289 172 707 197 321 188 785 215 379 191 426 73 267 87 497 109 301 87 556 119 355 82 70.3 50.5 92.2 50.2 70.3 55.2 93.7 46.4 70.8 55.3 93.7 42.8 16.5 36.2 11.0 9.3 16.6 49.0 12.8 .9 9.4 17.9 11.1 11.8 9.5 17.9 -6 .6 643 141 318 184 752 195 336 221 831 381 239 183 33 118 32 272 65 162 45 339 78 209 52 28.5 23.6 37.2 17.2 36.1 33.3 48.1 20.4 40.8 37.1 54.8 21.6 17.0 38.3 5.7 48.2 95.1 36.5 42.6 10.5 8.5 13.2 8.2 24.6 20.9 29.0 14.4 113 31 47 35 130 47 51 32 154 57 70 28 72 14 41 17 27 46 15 107 32 63 11 64.0 44.6 88.1 49.2 67.9 57.5 91.0 46.4 69.5 57.3 90.5 41.4 15.2 22.3 18.6 50.9 94.5 19.5 9.1 12.8 37.7 -8 .9 -14.1 -13.2 21.4 18.9 36.8 -22.5 128 31 60 37 145 48 59 39 168 57 73 38 39 6 26 52 12 31 9 65 15 41 30.8 19.4 42.9 35.6 25.9 52.0 22.6 38.6 27.2 56.4 21.3 13.9 52.6 -1 .2 5.5 31.7 104.0 19.5 15.0 15.3 19.1 24.3 -2 .9 25.1 24.9 34.8 -8 .6 211 20.2 1.2 o n w h it e Male Total, 14 and over_____________ 14-24 years_______ ______ 25-54 years________________ 55 years and over__________ Female Total, 14 and over_____________ 14-24 years________________ 25-54 years________________ 55 years and over__________ 8 88 8 20.8 Louisiana A ll C la sse s Both sexes, 14 and over............ . Male Total, 14 and over.......................... 14-24 years________________ 25-54 years________________ 55 years and over__________ Female Total, 14 and over____________ 14-24 years________________ 25-54 years____________ ... 55 years and over.................... N 2,164 2,628 3,154 1,092 1,375 1,711 50.5 52.3 54.2 21.4 25.9 20.0 24.4 1,037 256 557 224 1,268 385 613 270 1,527 451 767 310 756 126 516 114 907 208 568 131 1,104 253 712 140 72.9 49.4 92.6 51.0 71.5 54.0 92.7 48.5 72.3 56.0 92.8 45.3 22.3 5Q.6 10.0 20.4 19.9 64.7 10.2 14.5 20.4 17.0 25.1 14.6 21.4 25.3 7.0 1,127 269 595 262 1,360 391 637 332 1,626 455 776 395 336 66 225 46 468 113 284 70 606 141 374 90 29.8 24.4 37.7 17.5 34.4 29.0 44.6 21.2 37.3 31.1 48.2 22.9 20.7 45.2 7.1 26.3 39.3 72.7 26.6 53.7 19.6 16.4 21.7 19.3 29.5 24.7 31.7 28.3 299 87 142 70 367 131 164 73 459 159 225 75 195 40 125 30 246 72 143 31 319 91 197 30 65.3 45.8 43.0 66.9 54.7 87.3 43.1 69.5 57.1 87.8 40.8 23.1 51.8 15.0 4.1 26.2 81.4 13.9 4.2 24.8 21.3 37.5 29.7 26.6 38.3 -2 .7 343 92 171 80 412 138 183 91 502 166 236 123 21 85 16 162 37 104 204 42 139 24 35.8 23.3 49.7 39.4 26.5 56.8 23.7 40.7 25.2 58.8 23.8 32.3 71.5 22.3 33.2 20.4 28.6 10.3 21.8 o n w h it e Male Total, 14 and over.......................... 14-24 years_______________1 25-54 years________________ 55 years and over__________ Female Total, 14 and over........................ 14-24 years________________ 25-54 years________ _______ 55 years and over..................... See footnotes at end of table. 90 100 21 88.1 20.1 20.1 50.9 7.0 12.9 2.8 21.8 25.9 14.6 33.0 10.9 T a b l e 2. P o pu l a t io n a n d L a b o r F orce (E x c l u d in g A rm ed F o rces O v e r se a s ), b y A g e , C olor ,1 an d S e x , fo r R e g io n s a n d S t a t e s , 1960 a n d P ro jected 1970 a n d 1980—Continued [Numbers in thousands] Age, color, and sex Population (July 1) 1960 (April 1) 1970 1980 Labor force (annual average) Labor force partici pation rates (percent) 1960 (April 1) 1960 1970 1980 Percent change 1960-70 1970-80 1970 1980 Popu Labor Popu Labor lation foroe lation force Oklahoma A ll C l a sse s Both sexes, 14 and over................. Male Total, 14 and over......................... 14-24 years____ ___________ 25-54 years________________ 55 years and over__________ Female Total, 14 and over.......................... 14-24 years________________ 25-54 years-----------------------55 years and over__________ N on 1,668 1,881 2,054 854 1,016 1,160 51.2 54.0 56.5 12.7 19.0 9.2 14.1 812 190 406 216 908 256 418 233 991 273 476 241 596 104 379 114 663 153 393 117 732 168 450 113 73.5 54.8 93.2 52.8 73.1 59.7 94.0 50.2 73.8 61.6 94.4 47.0 35.3 2.9 11.8 47.3 3.8 9.1 6.6 13.9 3.4 10.3 10.1 14.4 -3 .2 856 179 431 246 973 242 442 289 1,063 257 490 316 258 47 162 48 353 86 198 68 428 107 242 79 30.1 26.3 37.6 19.6 36.3 35.7 45.0 23.5 40.3 41.8 49.3 25.1 13.6 35.2 2.5 17.3 37.1 83.6 22.5 40.8 11.0 9.3 6.3 9.2 24.1 21.5 16.8 18 30 18 77 28 32 18 91 34 41 16 40 7 25 8 49 15 27 7 62 19 36 7 60.5 41.3 82.5 42.4 64.0 52.7 41.3 67.4 56.1 87.8 39.5 16.2 54.1 4.2 -1.4 23.0 96.5 9.3 -3 .9 18.9 21.5 30.5 -5.9 25.2 29.4 32.3 -10.0 74 18 37 19 87 27 38 103 34 46 23 23 4 16 4 31 9 17 5 39 13 21 5 31.6 20.9 42.5 20.8 36.0 32.1 46.0 23.5 37.4 37.3 44.8 22.6 17.6 54.0 3.4 11.3 34.1 136.7 11.9 25.6 18.7 23.6 22.9 5.3 23.4 43.4 19.7 8.0 11.2 2.8 21.2 w h it e Male Total, 14 and over.......................... 14-24 years______________ 25-54 years________________ 55 years and over__________ Female Total, 14 and over_____________ 14-24 years________________ 25-54 years________________ 55 years and over__________ 66 22 86.6 1.6 Texas A ll C l a sse s Both sexes, 14 and over................. Male Total, 14 and over___ _________ 14-24 years________________ 25-54 years________________ 55 years and over__________ Female Total, 14 and over_____________ 14-24 years________________ 25-54 years________________ 55 years and over__________ N on 6,563 7,949 9,357 3,636 4,553 5,503 55.4 57.3 58.8 21.1 25.2 17.7 20.8 3, 210 776 1,740 694 3,839 1,178 1,820 841 4,491 1,353 2,178 960 2,529 459 1,652 418 2,969 734 1,747 489 3,460 843 2,095 523 78.8 59.2 94.9 60.2 77.4 62.3 96.0 58.1 77.0 62.3 96.2 54.4 19.6 51.8 4.6 17.4 59.8 5.8 16.8 17.0 14.9 19.7 14.1 16.5 14.9 19.9 6.9 3,353 757 1,805 791 4,111 1,130 1,960 1,021 4,866 1,295 2,339 1,232 1,107 210 725 171 1,584 399 927 267 2,043 499 1,197 347 33.0 27.8 40.2 21.7 38.5 34.5 47.3 26. 2 42.0 38.5 51.2 28.2 49.3 8.6 29.1 43.1 85.1 27.9 55.9 18.4 14.6 19.4 20.7 29.0 28.0 29.1 29.8 443 150 91 544 191 256 96 269 51 172 46 338 98 191 49 428 132 246 50 72.4 53.7 89.7 54.1 76.2 65.1 94.6 53.7 78.6 69.3 95.8 51.5 19.4 59.0 5.3 7.3 25.7 92.8 11.1 6.4 27.7 27.0 5.3 494 152 234 108 606 193 289 123 178 27 125 25 236 57 146 33 291 78 177 36 43.6 28.2 57.2 27.5 47.8 37.2 62.5 30.7 48.1 40.2 61.2 29.5 32.5 106.0 16.5 32.3 22.7 27.2 23.8 Hi 1 21.1 22.6 w h it e Male Total, 14 and over_____________ 14-24 years________________ 25-54 years________________ 55 years and over__________ Female Total, 14 and over....... ............... 14-24 years________________ 25-54 years_____ __________ 55 years and over__________ 371 94 192 85 408 97 219 91 202 21.0 56.3 6.5 18.4 22.8 26.7 35.8 28.5 1.1 23.4 37.4 21.2 9.6 See footnotes at end of table. 91 T a b l e 2. P o p u l a t io n R a n d L a b o r e g io n s a n d F S o r c e t a tes (E x c l , 1960 u d in g a n d P A rm ed F o r c es r o je c t e d 1 9 7 0 O v e r s e a s ), a n d 1980— by A g e , C Continued ,1 o lo r a n d S e x , fo r [Numbers in thousands] Population (July 1) Labor force (annual average) Age, color, and sex 1960 (April 1) 1970 1980 1960 (April 1) 1970 1980 Labor force partici pation rates (percent) 1960 Percent change 1960-70 1970-80 1970 1980 Popu Labor Popu Labor lation force lation force Mountain A ll C l a sse s Both sexes, 14 and over.................. Male Total, 14 and over.:................ ........ 14-24 years_____ __________ 25-54 years...... ..................... . 55 years and over..................... Female Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years................................ 25-54 years...... ........................ 55 years and over..................... N 4,593 6,036 7,458 2,561 3,574 4,537 55.8 59.2 60.8 31.4 39.5 23.6 27.0 2,295 551 1,247 497 2,981 899 1,457 625 3,664 1,085 1,823 756 1,800 333 1,185 283 2,349 595 1,403 351 2,904 736 1,760 408 78.4 60.4 95.0 56.8 66.2 78.8 96.3 56.2 79.3 67.8 96.6 53.9 29.9 63.0 16.9 25.7 30.5 78.7 18.4 24.3 22.9 20.8 25.1 20.9 23.6 23.7 25.5 16.1 2,297 545 1,241 512 3,055 876 1,480 699 3,794 1,052 1,839 903 761 168 479 114 1,224 355 688 181 1,632 463 923 246 33.1 30.7 38.6 22.3 40.1 40.5 46.5 25.9 43.0 44.1 50.2 27.2 33.0 60.7 19.3 36.6 60.9 111.9 43.5 59.1 24.2 20.1 24.2 29.3 33.3 30.6 34.1 35.7 104 32 54 18 138 50 67 192 77 90 25 67 14 44 9 94 27 57 10 134 42 79 13 64.6 45.0 81.8 47.5 68.4 53.8 85.5 48.1 69.9 55.1 49.6 33.1 57.3 24.8 15.7 41.0 87.8 30.5 17.2 39.3 54.6 33.9 20.5 42.4 58.5 38.1 24.1 99 30 54 16 141 50 71 203 78 97 28 31 7 21 3 52 17 30 5 70 22 41 7 31.1 22.2 39.2 20.7 36.7 34.6 42.4 22.5 34.4 28.0 42.6 23.6 42.3 67.0 31.9 30.4 160.8 42.7 41.5 43.4 55.1 36.9 37.2 34.1 25.5 37.6 43.8 o n w h it e Male Total, 14 and over___ _________ 14-24 years___________ ____ 25-54 years_____ ____ ______ 55 years and over..... ............... Female Total, 14 and over........................... 14-25 years............... ........ ....... 25-54 years................................ 55 years and over__________ 21 20 88.2 68.0 Montana A ll C l a sse s Both sexes, 14 and over.................. Male Total, 14 and over.......................... 14-24 years_______________ 25-54 years................................ 55 years and over__________ Female Total, 14 and over................ .......... 14-24 years_______ ______ 25-54 years________________ 55 years and over..................... 458 528 606 254 309 362 55.5 58.5 59.7 15.2 21.4 14.8 17.2 234 52 122 60 266 76 126 64 303 86 148 70 181 30 117 34 205 49 121 36 234 57 141 36 77.5 59.0 95.6 56.6 77.2 64.2 95.9 55.9 77.4 60.4 95.6 52.2 13.9 47.0 3.0 7.5 13.4 60.1 3.3 6.1 14.0 12.7 17.5 8.4 14.2 16.6 17.2 262 73 67 303 82 143 78 73 16 44 13 103 30 56 18 127 34 71 32.6 32.3 37.3 23.1 39.5 40.3 45.6 27.3 42.0 41.7 49.5 28.7 16.6 44.9 3.5 18.6 41.0 80.7 26.5 40.4 15.6 11.6 17.1 17.3 23.1 15.5 27.2 23.0 225 51 118 56 122 22 1.2 Idaho A ll C l a sse s Both sexes, 14 and over................. Male Total, 14 and over_____________ 14-24 years................................ 25-54 years............................... 55 years and over_____ _____ Female Total, 14 and over:_____ ______ 14-24 years________________ 25-54 years................................ 55 years and over..................... See footnotes at end of table. 92 447 522 613 251 319 388 56.1 61.2 63.2 16.6 27.1 17.4 21.4 226 54 118 54 264 77 126 61 310 86 156 180 33 114 32 213 54 122 37 250 61 151 39 79.6 62.2 96.4 60.2 80.7 70.6 97.1 60.0 80.6 70.2 96.9 56.7 16.9 43.3 6.2 14.2 18.6 62.7 7.0 13.9 17.5 11.9 24.3 10.6 17.3 11.3 23.9 4.4 258 73 120 64 303 82 143 77 71 16 44 106 30 59 18 137 35 78 24 32.2 29.8 38.0 41.1 40.2 48.8 27.8 45.4 43.0 54.7 30.8 16.3 38.0 3.6 48.6 86.5 32.9 56.4 17.4 12.4 19.0 20.3 29.7 20.2 33.4 32.9 222 53 116 52 68 11 21.8 22.6 T a b l e 2. P o pu l a t io n a n d L a b o r F orce (E x c l u d in g A rm ed F orces O v e r se a s ), b y A g e , C olor ,1 a n d S e x , fo r R e g io n s a n d S t a t e s , 1960 a n d P r o jected 1970 a n d 1980—Continued [Numbers in thousands] Population (July 1) Labor force (annual average) Age, color, and sex 1960 (April 1) 1970 1980 1960 (April 1) 1970 1980 Labor force partici pation rates (percent) 1960 Percenttchange 1960-70 1970-80 1970 1980 Popu Labor Popu Labor lation force lation force 58.0 60.7 61.6 16.9 22.4 17.4 19.1 25 77 80.7 61.5 96.2 61.3 79.4 63.3 96.8 60.3 78.5 61.4 96.3 57.8 16.3 47.7 4.7 15.0 14.3 52.1 5.3 13.1 16.7 12.5 19.5 15.5 15.4 9.2 18.9 10.7 67 17 39 34.0 31.3 38.8 25.1 41.3 40.5 48.3 28.3 44.3 42.4 53.6 28.0 17.5 42.9 3.0 27.2 42.6 85.1 28.2 43.3 18.1 13.4 18.6 22.4 26.6 18.9 31.9 20.2 24.5 Wyoming A ll C l a sse s Both sexes, 14 and over.................. 224 262 307 130 159 115 25 64 26 134 37 67 30 156 41 80 35 93 15 61 16 106 23 63 18 109 25 60 24 128 36 62 31 151 40 73 38 37 8 23 53 14 30 189 M ale Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years................................. 25-54 years................................ 55 years and over...................... 122 20 F em ale Total, 14 and over.......................... 14-24 years................................. 25-54 years................................. 55 years and over..................... 6 8 11 21.2 Colorado A ll C la sse s Both sexes, 14 and over.................. 1,211 1,559 1,874 681 933 1,162 56.2 59.9 62.0 28.7 37.1 595 137 321 137 755 230 367 159 904 268 448 188 468 85 306 76 603 156 356 91 736 191 437 108 78.7 62.4 95.4 55.7 79.9 68.0 97.1 57.2 81.4 71.2 97.5 57.5 27.1 67.9 14.2 16.5 29.0 82.9 16.3 19.7 617 134 329 154 803 222 388 194 970 257 473 240 213 45 134 34 330 95 186 50 427 120 242 64 34.5 33.6 40.8 41.1 42.7 47.9 25.6 44.0 46.8 51.2 26.6 30.2 65.8 17.9 25.5 110.6 54.9 38.6 45.8 15.7 24.0 29.3 27.1 30.4 29.1 M ale Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years................................ 25-54 years................................. 55 years and over..................... 19.6 16.8 17.9 22.1 21.9 22.4 18.5 22.6 F em ale Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years................................ 25-54 years................................. 55 years and over...................... 22.0 20.8 22.1 New Mexico A ll C la sse s Both sexes, 14 and over.................. 607 761 997 328 433 588 54.0 56.9 58.9 25.4 32.1 31.1 35.6 305 83 170 52 377 128 181 489 161 241 236 48 159 30 287 78 172 37 378 101 232 44 77.5 57.6 93.7 56.5 76.2 61.2 95.0 54.6 77.2 62.8 96.1 51.6 23.5 54.9 6.6 28.7 21.5 64.3 8.1 24.3 29.7 25.9 33.2 27.7 31.4 29.2 34.8 302 80 169 53 384 120 189 75 508 153 251 104 21 92 59 146 46 81 19 30.3 26.7 34.9 21.1 38.0 38.6 42.9 24.8 41.3 41.2 47.6 26.4 27.3 50.3 11.8 41.9 59.5 117.5 37.2 66.8 32.4 27.9 32.9 38.3 43.9 36.6 47.3 47.1 M ale Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years................................. 25-54 years................................. 55 years and over..................... F em ale Total, 14 and over.......................... 14-24 years................................. 25-54 years............. ................. 55 years and over..................... 68 86 11 210 63 119 28 20.6 Arizona A ll C la sse s Both sexes, 14 and over.................. 871 1,315 1,734 471 740 1,009 54.1 56.3 58.2 50.9 57.2 31.9 36.3 435 107 239 89 645 190 320 136 846 249 417 180 331 63 224 44 494 122 306 654 168 403 84 76.0 59.0 93.5 49.3 76.5 64.3 95.6 48.4 77.3 67.3 96.5 46.6 48.4 78.0 33.8 51.8 49.3 93.8 36.8 49.0 31.1 31.2 30.5 32.4 32.6 37.3 31.8 27.5 436 103 241 91 669 187 329 153 140 28 93 19 247 68 146 33 354 32.2 27.5 38.5 36.9 36.1 44.3 39.9 41.7 47.1 23.7 53.5 81.2 36.2 67.7 75.8 137.6 56.9 75.7 32.6 30.1 30.0 41.3 43.7 50.5 38.2 53.6 M ale Total, 14 and over.......................... 14-24 years............................... 25-54 years................................. 55 years and over..................... 66 F em ale Total, 14 and over.......................... 14-24 years................................ 25-54 years........................... 1__ 55 years and over..................... 888 244 427 217 102 201 51 20.8 21.8 See footnotes at end of table. 93 T a b l e 2. P o pu l a t io n a n d L a b o r F o rce (E x c l u d in g A rm ed F orces O v e r s e a s ), b y A g e , C olor ,1 a n d S e ;x , fo r R e g io n s a n d S t a t e s , 1960 a n d P ro jected 1970 a n d 1980—Continued [Numbers in thousands] Labor force (annual average) Population (July 1) Age, color, and sex 1960 (April 1) 1970 1980 1960 (April 1) 1980 1970 Labor force partici pation rates (percent) 1960 1970 Percent change 1960-70 1970-80 1980 Popu Labor Popu Labor lation force lation force Utah A ll C l a sse s Both sexes, 14 and over.................. Male Total, 14 and over.......................... 14-24 years................................. 25-54 years................................. 55 years and over..................... Female Total, 14 and over.......................... 14-24 years................................ 25-54 years................................ 55 years and over..................... 572 756 946 319 461 596 55.7 61.0 63.0 32.2 44.8 25.1 29.2 281 74 152 56 373 117 185 70 467 140 242 85 224 44 145 36 302 80 179 43 378 95 232 50 79.8 59.4 9517 63.2 81.0 68.4 96.2 61.8 80.8 68.3 95.7 59.1 32.4 59.0 22.5 24.0 34.5 82.9 23.2 21.3 25.4 19.6 30.4 21.7 25.1 19.4 29.8 16.3 290 79 150 61 383 121 182 80 479 144 234 94 26 54 14 159 53 82 24 219 68 118 33 32.4 33.0 36.2 22.7 41.6 43.8 45.3 29.9 45.7 47.4 50.3 32.5 32.1 54.1 21.4 30.2 69.4 104.6 52.1 71.4 24.9 18.8 28.6 25.7 37.1 28.6 42.7 36.5 101 Nevada A ll C la sses Both sexes, 14 and over.................. Male Total, 14 and over.........................14-24 years............................... 25-54 years...............................55 years and over...................... Female Total, 14 and over....................... 14-24 years................ ........... 25-54 years................................ 55 years and over...................... 202 334 381 127 218 243 63.0 65.4 63.8 65.5 71.6 13.9 11.2 105 21 61 23 167 45 86 37 189 54 90 45 87 14 58 15 139 32 83 23 152 38 88 26 83.1 66.7 95.7 64.7 83.0 72.8 96.8 63.2 80.6 71.2 97.0 58.9 59.1 107.5 40.6 62.8 58.9 126.4 42.4 59.0 12.9 20.9 5.4 20.7 9.7 18.2 5.6 12.3 97 21 58 19 167 43 89 35 192 50 94 48 40 7 28 5 80 20 49 91 23 54 14 41.3 33.8 48.3 27.9 47.7 45.8 55.2 30.8 47.3 47.1 57.4 28.0 110.6 72.4 53.8 87.8 99.2 186.0 76.0 107.3 14.9 14.4 5.5 39.4 14.0 17.6 9.7 26.7 11 Pacific A ll C l a sse s Both sexes, 14 and over.................. Male Total, 14 and over.......................... 14-24 years________________ 25-54 years............. ................. 55 years and over..................... Female Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years________________ 25-54 years................................ 55 years and over...................... N 8,611 11,565 14,495 57.3 59.3 59.9 29.8 34.3 24.1 25.3 3,287 5,818 2,583 5,907 1,019 3,941 947 7,616 1,895 4,525 1,196 9,401 2,319 5,630 1,452 79.1 62.5 95.1 56.0 80.1 69.7 96.7 56.6 80.4 70.6 96.8 56.2 27.4 66.5 13.0 24.9 28.9 85.8 14.8 26.4 22.9 20.9 24.3 22.3 23.4 22.4 24.4 21.4 9,980 2,582 4,888 2,510 12,493 3,137 6,123 3,234 2,703 488 1,777 438 3,949 1,043 2,284 622 5,094 1,415 2,873 805 35.8 32.0 43.2 23.0 39.6 40.4 46.7 24.8 40.8 45.1 46.9 24.9 32.2 68.9 18.8 31.7 46.1 113.5 28.5 42.1 25.2 21.5 25.3 28.8 29.0 35.7 25.8 29.4 641 148 381 112 830 262 415 153 1,086 368 525 193 495 81 346 68 652 166 393 93 852 238 502 112 77.1 54.4 91.0 60.3 78.5 63.4 94.7 60.5 78.5 64.7 95.7 58.1 29.5 76.5 9.0 36.6 31.7 105.8 13.5 36.9 30.7 40.5 26.5 25.6 30.8 43.5 27.8 20.7 598 143 362 92 850 258 457 135 1,173 370 597 206 258 44 187 27 401 103 251 46 543 168 302 74 43.1 30.4 51.8 28.8 47.1 40.1 55.0 33.9 46.3 45.3 50.5 35.7 42.2 80.0 26.3 46.0 55.4 136.8 34.1 72.1 38.0 43.2 30.7 52.8 35.6 62.1 20.0 61.0 15,017 19,490 7,466 1,633 4,142 1,692 9,510 2,718 4,680 2,113 7,551 1,529 4,116 1,901 24,182 11,688 o n w h it e Male Total, 14 and over.......................... 14-24 years................................. 25-54 years________ _______ 55 years and over...................... Female Total, 14 and over.......................... 14-24 years.............................. 25-54 years............................. . 55 years and over...................... See footnotes at end of table. 94 Table 2. PopulationRand Labor Force (Excluding Armed Forces Overseas), by Age, Color,1 and Sex, fo r egions and States, 1960 and Projected 1970 and 1980—Continued [Numbers in thousands] Population (July 1) Labor force (annual average) Age, color, and sex 1960 (April 1) All Classes Both sexes, 14 and over................ Male Total, 14 and over.......................... 14-24 years................................. 25-54 years................................ 55 years and over..................... F emale Total, 14 and over.......................... 14-24 years................................. 25-54 years................................ 55 years and over.................... 1970 1980 1960 (April 1) 1970 Labor force partici pation rates (percent) 1980 1960 Percent change 1960-70 1970-80 1970 1980 Popu Labor Popu Labor lation force lation force Washington 2,006 2,329 2,713 1,125 1,368 1,628 56.1 58.7 60.0 16.1 21.6 16.5 19.0 1,003 219 533 252 1,145 337 529 280 1,322 372 637 312 780 135 508 137 893 230 511 152 1,041 261 617 162 77.8 61.7 95.4 54.5 78.0 68.4 96.6 54.2 78.8 70.3 96.9 51.8 14.2 54.0 - .7 11.0 14.4 70.8 .6 10.2 15.4 10.6 20.5 11.5 16.6 13.6 20.8 6.8 1,002 210 528 264 1,184 315 548 320 1,391 349 659 384 344 67 216 61 475 130 259 86 587 158 322 107 34.4 32.2 40.9 23.1 40.1 41.2 47.3 26.8 42.2 45.4 48.8 27.9 18.1 50.3 3.7 21.3 37.8 92.4 19.9 41.1 17.6 10.7 20.2 19.7 23.6 21.9 24.2 24.5 Oregon A ll Classes Both sexes, 14 and over.................. Male Total, 14 and over.......................... 14-24 years................................ 25-54 years................................ 55 years and over..................... F emale Total, 14 and over____ ________ 14-24 years...............-............... 25-54 years................................ 55 years and over..................... A ll Classes Both sexes, 14 and over................. Male Total, 14 and over...____ ______ 14-24 years.............. ................ 25-54 years...................... ......... 55 years and over..................... Female Total, 14 and over.......................... 14-24 years............. ................ 25-54 years_______ ________ 55 years and over.............. ...... N onwhite Male Total, 14 and over........................... 14-24 years............. ................ 25-54 years_________ _______ 55 years and over..................... Female Total, 14 and over.......................... 14-24 years................................. 25-54 years............................ 55 years and over..................... 1,251 1,473 1,672 685 827 948 54.7 56.1 56.7 17.7 20.7 13.5 14.7 617 125 325 166 722 191 343 188 822 204 412 205 469 67 309 92 539 111 328 100 615 121 393 101 76.0 53.9 95.0 55.6 74.6 58.2 95.6 53.1 74.9 59.5 95.3 49.1 17.1 52.9 5.4 13.1 14.9 64.9 6.1 8.0 13.8 6.6 20.4 9.2 14.2 9.1 20.0 1.0 635 130 329 175 751 196 341 214 850 206 396 249 216 40 134 41 288 77 156 56 333 89 183 61 34.1 31.1 40.7 23.8 38.3 39.2 45.7 26.0 39.1 43.3 46.2 24.4 18.3 50.5 3.6 22.2 33.1 89.5 16.1 33.1 13.2 5.1 16.0 16.0 15.5 16.2 17.5 9.0 California 11,185 14,980 18,962 6,436 8,926 11, 412 57.5 59.6 60.2 33.9 38.7 26.6 27.8 5,526 1,194 3,105 1,227 7,261 2,043 3,635 1,582 9,114 2,545 4,576 1,993 4,395 751 2,953 690 5,881 1,450 3,522 909 7,413 1,824 4,438 1,151 79.5 63.0 95.1 56.2 81.0 71.0 96.9 57.4 81.4 71.7 97.0 57.8 31.4 71.2 17.1 28.9 33.8 93.0 19.3 31.8 25.5 24.6 25.9 26.0 26.0 25.8 26.0 26.7 5,659 l, 123 3,105 1,432 7,719 1,973 3,821 1,926 9,848 2,464 4,857 2,527 2,041 360 1,355 326 3,045 799 1,780 466 3,999 1,120 2,265 614 36.1 32.1 43.6 22.8 39.4 40.5 46.6 24.2 40.6 45.5 46.6 24.3 36.4 75.7 23.1 34.5 49.2 121.9 31.4 42.9 27.6 24.9 27.1 31.2 31.3 40.1 27.3 31.7 428 95 260 72 583 180 300 103 795 270 392 134 335 54 236 45 468 118 286 64 642 181 380 82 78.2 56.6 90.5 62.4 80.4 65.3 95.5 62.8 80.8 67.2 96.9 60.8 36.1 89.0 15.0 42.2 39.9 118.0 21.4 43.2 36.5 49.3 30.7 30.8 37.2 53.9 32.7 26.7 408 93 252 63 616 184 335 98 882 276 454 151 180 29 131 20 293 76 182 35 410 131 225 55 44.1 31.2 52.1 31.3 47.6 41.4 54.4 35.9 46.5 47.4 49.5 36.2 50.9 96.4 32.9 55.4 62.7 160.8 38.7 78.5 43.0 50.5 35.5 54.9 39.9 72.3 23.3 56.1 See footnotes at end of table. 95 Table 2. PopulationRegions and .labor Force (Excluding Armed Forces Overseas), by Age, Color,1 and Sex, for and States, 1960 and Projected 1970 and 1980—Continued [N um bers in thousands] P ercen t change P o p u la tio n ( J u l y 1) L a b o r fo r c e ( a n n u a l a v e r a g e ) L a b o r fo r c e p a r t i c i p a tio n r a te s (p e rce n t) A g e , c o lo r , a n d s e x 19 6 0 - 7 0 19 6 0 (A p r il 1) 19 7 0 19 8 0 19 6 0 ( A p r il 1) 19 7 0 19 8 0 19 6 0 19 7 0 19 8 0 Popu la tio n 19 7 0 - 8 0 Labor fo r c e Popu la tio n Labor fo r c e A la s k a A ll Classes B o t h s e x e s , 1 4 a n d o v e r ........................ 14 9 17 9 223 99 114 13 5 6 6 .9 6 3 .6 6 0 .3 2 0 .2 14 .3 2 4 .8 18 .5 89 28 52 9 10 0 41 46 13 117 50 52 15 76 22 48 5 82 30 43 8 93 35 49 9 8 5 .3 7 8 .2 9 3 .0 6 3 .0 8 1.6 7 3 .0 9 4 .1 6 4 .6 7 9 .5 7 0 .2 9 4 .8 5 8 .0 1 2 .7 4 5 .4 - 11.1 4 5 .6 7 .8 3 5 .8 - 9 .9 4 9 .4 17 .3 2 1 .1 1 2 .7 2 1.3 14 .2 1 6 .5 13 .5 8 .8 60 15 39 6 79 25 45 9 10 6 34 58 14 24 5 17 2 32 10 19 3 42 13 24 4 3 9 .6 3 4 .1 4 2 .7 3 4 .1 4 0 .7 3 9 .1 4 3 .3 3 2 .2 3 9 .2 3 9 .9 4 1.8 2 6 .7 3 1.4 6 0 .7 16 .1 5 5 .8 3 4 .9 8 4 .4 17 .8 4 7 .2 3 4 .4 3 6 .4 2 9 .3 5 4 .1 2 9 .4 3 9 .0 2 5 .0 2 7 .7 Male T o t a l , 1 4 a n d o v e r ..................................... 1 4 - 2 4 y e a r s ............................................. 2 5 - 5 4 y e a r s ............................................ 5 5 y e a r s a n d o v e r .............................. Female T o t a l , 1 4 a n d o v e r ..................................... 1 4 - 2 4 y e a r s ........... ................................. 2 5 - 5 4 y e a r s ............................................. 5 5 y e a r s a n d o v e r .............................. H a w a ii A ll Classes B o t h s e x e s , 1 4 a n d o v e r . ...................... 426 5 29 6 12 266 331 372 6 2 .3 6 2 .5 6 0 .8 2 4 .0 2 4 .4 15 .7 12 .6 232 67 12 8 37 282 10 5 12 7 50 3 14 115 14 1 57 18 8 44 12 3 21 222 73 12 1 28 239 77 13 2 29 8 1.2 6 5 .4 9 6 .1 5 8 .1 7 8 .6 6 9 .0 9 5 .3 5 6 .2 7 6 .1 6 6 .6 9 3 .8 5 1.3 2 1 .7 5 7 .7 - .7 3 4 .0 17 .8 6 6 .5 - 1.5 2 9 .6 11.3 9 .5 1 1 .2 15 .4 7 .7 5 .7 9 .5 5 .2 19 5 51 114 30 247 74 13 2 41 298 84 15 4 61 78 15 56 7 10 9 27 70 12 13 4 34 79 20 3 9 .9 2 9 .6 4 8 .6 2 3 .7 4 4 .1 3 7 .1 5 2 .9 2 8 .3 4 4 .8 4 0 .7 5 1.7 3 2 .8 2 6 .8 4 5 .1 15 .9 3 7 .7 4 0 .3 8 1.8 2 6 .0 6 4 .6 2 0 .7 14 .1 15 .9 4 8 .4 • 2 2 .6 2 5 .4 13 .3 7 2 .0 15 0 36 85 29 17 1 53 81 37 19 2 58 91 42 115 18 81 17 12 9 31 76 21 13 9 33 84 22 7 7 .1 4 9 .1 9 5 .5 5 8 .3 7 5 .2 5 9 .1 9 4 .3 5 6 .6 7 2 .7 5 6 .8 9 2 .4 5 2 .4 14 .5 4 7 .6 - 4 .3 2 8 .3 11.5 7 7 .7 - 5 .6 2 4 .6 12 .1 10 .3 12 .3 14 .0 8. 6 .0 10 .1 5 .6 13 5 35 78 21 15 9 49 83 27 18 6 55 91 39 59 11 43 5 78 19 51 8 92 23 54 14 4 3 .6 3 0 .5 5 5 .1 2 3 .2 4 9 .2 3 8 .8 6 1 .3 2 8 .8 4 9 .3 4 2 .0 5 9 .6 3 5 .6 17 .6 3 7 .8 6 .3 2 5 .1 3 2 .6 7 5 .5 19 .3 5 5 .1 1 7 .2 13 .2 1 0 .0 4 6 .6 17 .6 2 2 .7 6 .2 8 1.4 M ale T o t a l , 1 4 a n d o v e r .................................... 1 4 - 2 4 y e a r s ............................................ 2 5 - 5 4 y e a r s ............................................ 5 5 y e a r s a n d o v e r ............................. Female T o t a l , 1 4 a n d o v e r .................................... 1 4 - 2 4 y e a r s ............................................. 2 5 - 5 4 y e a r s ............................................ 5 5 y e a r s a n d o v e r ............................. N onwhite M ale T o t a l , 1 4 a n d o v e r .................................... 1 4 - 2 4 y e a r s ............................................ 2 5 - 5 4 y e a r s ............................................ 5 5 y e a r s a n d o v e r ............................. Female T o t a l , 1 4 a n d o v e r .................................... 1 4 - 2 4 y e a r s ............. - ............................ 2 5 - 5 4 y e a r s . .............- .......................... 5 5 y e a r s a n d o v e r . . ................. .. 1 D a t a b y c o lo r a r e s h o w n o n l y fo r t h o s e S t a t e s w h e r e t h e n o n w h i t e p o p u la t i o n 1 4 y e a r s o f a g e a n d o v e r w a s 10 0 ,0 0 0 o r m o r e i n 19 6 0 . N ote: P o p u l a t i o n p r o je c t i o n s o f S t a t e s a r e c o n s is t e n t w i t h n a t i o n a l p o p u l a t i o n p r o je c t io n s p u b li s h e d i n S e r ie s P - 2 5 , N o . 28 6, “ P r o je c t i o n s o f t h e P o p u l a t i o n o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , b y A g e a n d S e x : 19 6 4 to 19 8 5 .” P r o je c t e d l a b o r fo r c e d a t a a r e c o n s is t e n t w i t h d a t a in “ L a b o r F o r c e P r o je c t i o n s fo r 19 7 0 - 8 0 ,” F e b ru a ry 19 6 5 , p p . 1 2 9 - 1 4 0 ( r e p r in t e d a s S p e c i a l L a b o r F o r c e R e p o r t N o . 49) a n d “ L a b o r F o r c e P r o je c t i o n s b y C o lo r , 1 9 7 0 - 8 0 ,” Sep t e m b e r 19 6 6 , p p . 9 6 5 -9 7 2 ( r e p r in t e d a s S p e c i a l L a b o r F o r c e R e p o r t N o . 7 3 ) , Current Population Reports, M onthly Labor Review, M onthly Labor Review, 96 b u t e x c lu d e A r m e d F o r c e s o v e r s e a s . S t a t e l a b o r fo r c e d a t a fr o m t h e d e c e n n ia l c e n s u s r e la t e t o A p r i l 19 6 0 a n d a r e t h e r e f o r e n o t c o m p a r a b le w i t h p r o je c t io n s o f t h e U . S . la b o r fo r c e w h ic h a r e b a s e d o n a n n u a l a v e r a g e le v e ls f r o m t h e m o n t h l y la b o r fo r c e ( h o u s e h o ld ) s u r v e y . B e c a u s e o f r o u n d i n g , s u m s o f i n d i v i d u a l i t e m s m a y n o t e q u a l t o t a ls . R a t e s a n d p e rc e n t ch an ges are b ased o n u n ro u n d e d n u m b e rs. Source: P o p u l a t i o n a n d la b o r fo r c e d a t a fo r 19 6 0 a r e fr o m t h e d e c e n n ia l c e n s u s . P r o je c t i o n s o f t h e p o p u la t i o n fo r 19 7 0 a n d 19 8 0 a r e fr o m “ I l l u s t r a t i v e P r o je c t i o n s o f t h e P o p u l a t i o n o f S t a t e s : 19 7 0 t o 19 8 0 ,” , S e r ie s P - 2 5 , N o . 3 2 6 . Reports Current Population Table 3. Percent Increase in Projected Labor percentage points higher than that of the immediately Force of States, 1960-70 and 1970-80, in Rank preceding age group. 19 7 0 - 8 0 19 6 0 -7 0 Rank o rd er S ta te 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 P ercen t in c r e a s e S ta te P ercen t in c r e a s e N e v a d a .. . . x _______ A r i z o n a ........... ..................... U t a h ....................................... F l o r i d a .................................. C a l i f o r n i a ............... ........... C o lo r a d o . _____ N e w M e x i c o ___ __ ____ M a r y l a n d ...................... I d a h o ........... .......................... G e o r g i a ................................. -A rk an sas. . _ ___ D e l a w a r e . .......................... M i s s i s s i p p i ........................ L o u i s i a n a ........ ................... V i r g i n i a ...................... . T e n s ................................... H a w a i i ................. ................ S o u t h C a r o l i n a .......... T e n n e s s e e . . ...................... C o n n e c t i c u t ...................... A l a b a m a .............................. W y o m i n g ........................... N e w H a m p s h i r e ........... N o r t h C a r o l i n a .............. N e w J e r s e y ....................... W a s h in g t o n ___________ M o n t a n a ............................. O r e g o n .................................. V e r m o n t .............................. O h io ........... ............................ I n d i a n a . .............................. O k l a h o m a .............. ............ W is c o n s i n .......................... S o u t h D a k o t a _________ M i n n e s o t a .......................... M i c h i g a n ............................ K e n t u c k y ........................... N e b r a s k a ............................ N o r t h D a k o t a ................. N e w Y o r k .......................... K a n s a s ... M a s s a c h u s e t t s ________ A l a s k a ......................... ......... I l l i n o i s ........................... .. W e s t V i r g i n i a .................. I o w a .................... .................. M a i n e ................................... P e n n s y l v a n i a .................. R h o d e I s l a n d ................... M i s s o u r i .............................. D is t r ic t o f C o lu m b ia . 7 1.6 5 7 .2 4 4 .8 4 1.6 3 8 .7 3 7 .1 3 2 .1 2 8 .5 2 7 .1 2 6 .9 2 6 .1 2 6 .0 2 5 .0 2 5 .9 2 5 .8 2 5 .2 2 4 .4 2 3 .7 2 3 .1 2 2 .7 2 2 .7 2 2 .4 2 2 .3 2 2 .2 2 2 .0 2 1 .6 2 1 .4 2 0 .7 2 0 .5 19 .8 19 .6 19 .0 18 .9 18 .8 18 .4 18 .1 17 .8 17 .2 1 6 .6 1 6 .1 15 .6 14 .3 1 4 .3 14 .2 14 .1 12 .7 11 .5 1 1 .2 10 .2 9 .8 9 .4 A r i z o n a ____________ ___ N e w M e x i c o . . ............... F l o r i d a .................................. U t a h ........................... ........... C a l i f o r n i a _____ ________ C o l o r a d o _______________ L o u i s i a n a ______________ D e l a w a r e ............................. I d a h o . .................... .............. T e x a s ..................................... M a r y l a n d ........................... M i n n e s o t a ........... .............. I n d i a n a . . ............................ W y o m i n g _____________ A l a b a m a _______________ W a s h in g t o n ___________ W is c o n s i n ........................... N e w H a m p s h i r e _____ A l a s k a ................................... O h io ........................................ V i r g i n i a ________________ M i s s i s s i p p i ..............._ ....... M i c h i g a n ________ ______ D is t r ic t o f C o lu m b ia . M o n t a n a ...................... ....... V e r m o n t _______________ N e w J e r s e y . ..................... C o n n e c t i c u t ...................... I l l i n o i s .................... .............. A r k a n s a s ...................... ....... K e n t u c k y .. ________ G e o r g ia .. __________ T e n n e s s e e _______ _____ O r e g o n _________________ S o u t h C a r o l i n a ............... O k l a h o m a _____________ N o r t h C a r o l i n a .............. K a n s a s ... . ................. I o w a ............. ......... ................ N o r t h D a k o t a . ............ M a ssa c h u se tts M a i n e __________________ M is s o u r i S o u t h D a k o t a ............. N e b r a s k a . ..................... H a w a ii . N e v a d a .. P e n n s y lv a n ia N ew Y o r k .. W e st V irg in ia . R h o d e I s l a n d _________ 3 6 .3 3 5 .6 3 3 .5 2 9 .2 2 7 .8 2 4 .5 2 4 .4 2 2 .7 2 1 .4 2 0 .8 2 0 .4 19 .2 19 .1 19 .1 19 .1 19 .0 18 .8 18 .5 18 .5 18 .2 18 .1 18 .0 18 .0 17 .4 17 .2 17 .0 1 6 .8 1 6 .8 16 .3 16 .3 1 6 .0 15 .8 15 .0 14 .7 14 .6 14 .1 14 .0 14 .0 13 .8 13 .7 13 .5 13 .4 13 13 .1 12. e 12 .6 1 1 .2 10 .9 10 .4 8 .9 7 .4 U n it e d S t a te s , t o t a l.. 2 2 .0 U n it e d S t a te s , t o t a l.. 18 .1 .4 years immediately after World War II. Many of these individuals have entered the labor force as young workers or will enter it prior to 1970. In the four regions, the rise in the number of workers in each of the broad age groups will be similar to national trends. For example, the projected 1960-70 increase in the number of workers 14 to 24 years old varies from 56 percent in the Northeast to 94 percent in the West. The rise in the number of workers in the other two age groups, 25 to 54 and 55 and over, will remain considerably below the increase in the number of younger workers. This fact is especially true of the central age group, 25 to 54, which will experience a gain of 21 percent in the West and only 6 percent in the Northeast and North Central regions. Older workers, 55 and over, will show a gain approximately 10 to 12 The 1970fs Between 1970 and 1980, the total resident labor force is expected to rise from 85.3 million to 100.7 million workers, an increase of 18 percent. On a geographical basis, the same broad pattern of growth is still evident. The West once again will show the greatest rise, 26 percent, however, this increase is 10 percentage points less than during the preceding 10 years. The South also will experience a smaller gain than pre viously—19 percent, compared with 25 percent for the 1960-70 period. The Northeast region also is expected to rise somewhat less than in 1960-70; only the North Central region will increase by about the same percent age as in the previous decade, about 17 percent. Smaller increases in the 1970-80 decade also are evident when we look at the individual States. For example, for the 1970-80 period only three States may gain more than 30 percent: Arizona, New Mexico, and Florida, about 35 percent. Only eight will gain from 20 to 29 percent. The remaining States are expected to show gains ranging from 7 percent to 19 percent. The labor force growth patterns for the broad age groups expected during the 1970-80 period are expected to differ substantially from those described for the 1960-70 period. The most striking difference will occur among younger workers. For the Nation, the number of workers 14 to 24 will rise only about one-third as fast between 1970 and 1980 as it did in the 1960-70 period. Conversely, the group of workers age 25 to 54, which shows small gains for the 1960-70 period, is expected to increase by 19 percent during the 1970-80 period. In other words, the large number of births in the late 1940’s and early 1950’s produces the expectation of a large number of workers in the 14 to 24 age group during the 1960-70 decade, but by the 1970’s these same workers will be advancing into the 25 to 54 group. The effect will be felt also in the regions. For example, in the West, the number of workers age 14 to 24 is expected to rise by 27 percent, workers 25 to 54 by 26 percent, and workers 55 years old and over by 24 percent. Similar changes will occur in the other regions, where the projected increases in the three broad age groups are not expected to vary more than 7 percentage points. The nonwhite labor force will increase by 31 and 26 percent in the two successive decades, compared with 22 and 18 percent for the labor force as a whole. In the 97 Chart 1. Percent Increase in Projected Labor Force of States, 1960-70 and 1970-80 1960- 1970 1970- 1980 PERCENT CHANGE 10-14.9 E S 15-19.9 EU 20-29.9 30-49.9 E 3 50 AND OVER H 98 South and West, the nonwhite labor force will increase only slightly faster than the total for the region. In the Northeast and North Central regions, the nonwhite labor force will grow at about twice the rate for the whole labor force. These data have significant implications for education and employment policies in all of these regions. R eliability Second, in projecting the labor force participation rates (percent of population in the labor force for specific age groups of men and women), the procedure that was applied to past labor force participation rates was the same for each State. The chief merits of this approach are its simplicity and objectivity. The chief limitation is its failure to take explicit account of past economic or social circumstances of a State which are not expected to continue, or possible special future circumstances which could affect the labor force partici pation rates for some States. For this reason, these projections should be regarded only as a very approxi mate indication of future developments. They should not be regarded as a substitute for more detailed projections which might be prepared for any particular State on the basis of a careful analysis of its peculiar circumstances and developmental policies.7 In view of these limitations, we would appreciate comments or suggestions from users of these data in regard to their usefulness and improvements. We also would welcome any examples of projections that may have been developed by users for local areas, together with information as to techniques employed in their development. The procedure used in projecting the labor force has four essential steps. First, for each age-sex-color group, the labor force participation rate for 1940, 1950, and 1960 for each State was expressed as a ratio of the corresponding national labor force participation rate. Next, these ratios were extrapolated to 1970 and 1980 by extending the trend shown by the three past observations. Then the extrapolated ratios were applied to independently projected national labor force partici pation rates for 1970 and 1980. Finally, the projected labor force participation rates were applied to the projected population for each age-sex-color cell for the States. The effect of this procedure is to take specific account of differences among States in the rates for each age-sex-color group, and the trend in these differences over the 1940-60 period, in projecting the relationship of the rates for each State to the national average. Before describing the methods used in making these projections some discussion of the limitations affecting the reliability of these projections is necessary. First, the most important element in the size of the projected labor force of each State is the projection of the population of working age. In projecting the population for the next 10 or 15 years, the most critical variable is the magnitude and composition of net interstate migra tion. Our selection of the Series II migration assumption cannot be supported by specific evidence; it reflects our judgment that interstate migration is essentially pur posive movement which occurs to a considerable degree in response to differential economic opportunities. Limited evidence exists that these differentials tend to decline over time, partly as a result of the population movements they originally inspire.6 We therefore selected the series which assumes a very gradual decline in the net interstate migration in preference to the series which assumed a constant rate equal to that observed during 1955-60. Alternative assumptions in regard to the volume and direction of interstate migration in the future would result in a considerably different set of population projections, and, therefore, would yield different labor force projections as well. For example, the number of workers in the State of California, where net immigration is substantial, would be 135,000 (1.0 percent) greater than our projection of 13.4 million if the “high migration” assumption had been employed. Conversely, assuming no net migration would yield a labor force 302,000 (2.2 percent) less. In comparison, the high migration assumption for the State of Maine would produce a 1970 labor force only 5,000 (0.7 M ethod percent) less than our projection of 669,000, and the assumption of no net migration would yield a labor As was stated earlier, the State labor force projections force 11,000 (1.6 percent) greater. For most of the were prepared by a procedure consisting of four basic States, the effect of the alternative migration assump to the results of a recent mail survey by the tions would fall within the range indicated in the above Census7 According Bureau, at least 30 State agencies carry out population examples. projections for their own Use. In addition, in nearly every State, one or more universities or private organizations engage in population projections as a part of their research or planning 6 Lowell D. Ashby, “The Geographical Redistribution ofactivities. See the Bureau of the Census, “Inventory of State and Employment: An Examination of the Elements of Change,” Local Agencies Preparing Population Estimates-Survey of Survey o f Current Business, October 1944, pp. 13-20. 1965,” Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 328. 99 steps. First approximations and successive adjustments were obtained by using a special program written in FORTRAN language for the IBM 7074 computer. The basic inputs were: (1) State labor force participation rates, by age, sex, and color, for 1940,1950, and I960;8 (2) national labor force participation rates, by age, sex, and color, for 1940, 1950, and 1960, and projections to 1970 and 1980; and (3) projected State resident popula tion, by age, sex, and color, for 1970 and 1980. Steps 1 and 2 of the procedure involved computing ratios of State labor force participation rates for each age-sex-color group to corresponding national labor force participation rates, and extrapolating trends for these ratios to 1970 and 1980. Using the basic data described above we have: (1) T4o—o = (SRso/NRso) - (SR40/NR4o) (2) T5o—6o = (SR6o/NR60) - (SR /NR ) where Tptrend. SRi=State labor force participation rate for a given age-sex-color group. NR-=National labor force participation rate for a given age-sex-color group. i=Time, expressed as a 10-year time interval, e.g., 1940-50,1950-60. Using the trends computed in (1) and (2), and assigning weights of two-thirds to the most recent decade and one-third to the other period, the following relationships were established: (3) T6o—7o = 1/3 [(T - ) + 2(T50- 6o)] (4) T = 1/3[(T5o-6 o) + 2(T60_7o)] 5 50 50 Projected State labor force participation rates, by age, sex, and color for 1970 and 1980 were then obtained by solving for SR70 and SR8o in equations (3) and (4) respectively: (5) SR = [NR ] [(T6 - ) + (SR /NR )] (6) SRgo = [NR8o1[(T7o-8 o) + (SR7o/NR7o)] The projected State labor force rates obtained in step 2 were first approximations. Rates that were above or below the acceptable limits were arbitrarily adjusted to the nearest limit.9 We decided that the highest and the lowest rates observed among the States in the three censuses would provide broad limits for adjusting ex treme projected State labor force participation rates. In step 3, the number in the labor force in 1970 and 1980, in each age-sex-color group in each State, was obtained by multiplying the independently projected resident population by the projected rates of labor force participation of the corresponding age-sex-color group. Finally, the projected State labor force levels for each age-sex-color group were summed. These totals then were divided into corresponding age-sex-color totals of the independently projected national totals. The re sulting ratios were used as factors to adjust each State age-sex-color cell of every State to a national control total. The magnitude of this adjustment amounted to less than 0.5 percent in most cases. These adjusted labor force figures were used to compute a new set of labor force participation rates which were accepted without further adjustment. 7 0 7 0 0 7 0 6 0 60 9 These limits were developed by obtaining the average of the 4 highest and the 4 lowest State rates, by age, sex, and color, for 1940, 1950, and 1960, and calculating the ratios of the average of the “high four” and “low four” to the corresponding national rates in 1940, 1950, and 1960. Where a trend in the 8 Both the State and national rates relate to the totalratio was noted, it was extrapolated in projecting the ratio to resident labor force divided by the total resident population, 1970 and 1980. Where no trend was apparent, the ratios were times 100. In all three censuses, age detail was not published for held constant at the average of 1940, 1950, and 1960: the nonwhite labor force in States with fewer than 25,000 Multiplying the projected national labor force participation rates nonwhites. In these cases, the rates for a neighboring State were by the corresponding ratios provided upper and lower limits which were employed as criteria. substituted. 40 70-80 100 50 About Those Jobs for Tomorrow - - READ THE NEW OCCUPATIONAL OUTLOOK HANDBOOK By the US. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics. The 1968 edition of career information presents current assessments of job prospects through the 1 9 7 0 's. Its expanded coverage of over 700 occupations, 30 major industries, in cludes details on: • Nature of the work • Education and training requirements • Where to find employment opportunities • Job outlook through the 1970’$ • Earnings, working conditions • Where to get more information A R E M I N D E R ----The OCCUPATIONAL OUTLOOK HANDBOOK, and all other Occupational Outlook Service publications, are eligible for purchase by schools under Title II of the Elementary and Secondary Education Act. 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