View original document

The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.

T O M O R R O W

’S

M A N P O W

National manpower projections and a guide
to their use as a tool in developing State
and area manpower projections
V O L U M E I.

DEVELOPING AREA MANPOWER PROJECTIONS

B U LLETIN NO. IS O S
February 1969

m j
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS




E R

N E E D S




T O M O R R O W

’S

M A N P O W

E R

N E E D S

National manpower projections and a guide
to their use as a tool in developing State
and area manpower projections
V O L U M E I.

DEVELOPING AREA MANPOWER PROJECTIONS
B U LLETIN NO. 1 6 0 6

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS

For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402 - Price $1







PREFACE

This is the first of four volumes of Tomorrow's Manpower Needs , a publication
devoted to the subject of national, State and area projections of manpower require­
ments. The full series of volumes is as follows:
I Developing Area Manpower Proiections
II National Trends and Outlook: Industry Employment and
Occupational Structure

III National Trends and Outlook: Occupational Employment
IV The National Industry-Occupational Matrix and Other
Manpower Data
The objective of this publication is to help fill a gap in manpower information best
described by President Johnson in his 1964 Manpower Report to Congress, “Projections
of probable need in particular occupations are an essential guide for education, training,
and other policies aimed at developing the right skills at the right time in the right
place.” Projections of occupational needs at the State and area levels are needed in
planning education and training programs. To help meet this need, Tomorrow's
Manpower Needs presents up-to-date national manpower projections and provides a
guide to their use in developing State and area manpower projections. This publication
will be used in conjunction with a companion publication, Handbook for Projecting
Employment by Occupation for States and Major Areas, prepared by the Bureau of
Employment Security, Manpower Administration, U.S. Department of Labor, which
will provide detailed operating instructions for the specific use of State employment
security agencies.
The assumptions underlying this publication are: (1) State and area manpower
requirements estimates can be made more reliable if the analyses are made within the
context of nationwide economic and technological developments. (2) Regional man­
power analysts familiar with local markets, the movement of industry into an area, and
other factors affecting local industry and occupational employment are best able to
estimate manpower requirements at the local level. (3) Selection of an appropriate
projection technique or mix of techniques should take into account the financial
resources available to the regional manpower analysts, the technical sophistication of
their staff, the volume of projections required, the purpose of the projections as they
affect the need for accuracy and detail, and the availability of computer assistance.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics hopes that by providing a consistent and reasonably
detailed national manpower framework and a guide to its use in making State and area
manpower projections the well-informed local analyst will be aided in developing or
improving local manpower projections.
This report was prepared in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Office of Manpower and
Employment Statistics. The study was performed by staff of the Bureau’s Division of
Manpower and Occupational Outlook. It was planned and supervised by Sol Swerdloff







and Russell B. Flanders. Richard E. Dempsey, David P. Lafayette, James W. Longley,
Neal H. Rosenthal, and Joe L. Russell prepared or supervised preparation of major parts
of the study. Other staff members contributing to the research and writing were Liguori
O’Donnell, Melvin Fountain, Gerard Smith, Michael Crowley, Lloyd David, Penny
Friedman, Edward Ghearing, William Hahn, Jerry Kursban, Annie Lefkowitz, Dorothy
Orr, Judson Parker, Irving Phillips, Joseph Rooney, Norman Root, John Sprague,
Howard Stambler, and Annie Asensio.
The industry-occupational matrices for 1960 and 1975 were developed in the
Division of Occupational Employment Statistics, under the direction of Harry
Greenspan. The Office of Manpower Research of the Manpower Administration, U.S.
Department of Labor, funded a large part of the development of the national
industry-occupational matrix for 1975. The projections of the labor force were prepared
by Sophia Cooper Travis, Chief, Division of Labor Force Studies and by Denis F.
Johnston of that Division. The illustrative labor force projections by State presented in
the appendix were reprinted from Special Labor Force Report No. 74, prepared by
Denis F. Johnston and George F. Methee of that Division. Information on trends in
output per man-hour was provided by the Office of Productivity, Technology, and
Growth. Especially valuable was information on technological trends in major industries
collected by that office under the direction of Edgar Weinberg. In the projections of
employment by industry, extensive use was made of the work on estimates of industrial
output and employment carried on by the Division of Economic Growth, as part of the
Interagency Growth Study Project.
The Bureau wishes to acknowledge the encouragement received from the
Coordinating Committee on Manpower Research (CCMR) of the U.S. Department of
Labor, which recommended the development of this report. We also appreciate the
assistance of many representatives of other Federal agencies, State government agencies,
private research organizations, trade associations, labor unions, and colleges and
universities.

CONTENTS

Page

Introduction ....................................................................................................... 1
Using national manpower data to develop State and
Area manpower requirements projections....................................................... 5
How national manpower information was used to develop
manpower projections for a State and areas..................................................... 18
Estimating Replacement Needs............................................................................ 47
Appraising the adequacy of supply in individual
occupations.................................................................................................... 59
Appendixes:
A. Estimated annual death and retirement rates for
selected occupations, by sex, for employed
workers in the United States............................................................. 64
B. Projections of the population and labor force
for States and Regions, by age and color.......................................... 68




v




INTRO DUC TIO N

In a growing economy, the occupational composition of the work force, as well as
the skills required in each occupation, change through the years. Present manpower
needs, therefore, are an uncertain guide to future requirements. To plan education and
training programs to meet tomorrow’s manpower needs, projections are needed of these
changing manpower requirements. Such projections can help also in the vocational
guidance of young people. To the extent that education, training, and vocational
guidance accurately reflect the changing character of manpower needs, imbalances
between manpower requirements and labor supply can be reduced, the productivity of
the economy and the earning power of workers enhanced, and structural unemployment
minimized.
The manpower legislation passed in the early 1960’s emphasized the need for
projections of occupational requirements and supply information. The Area Redevelop­
ment Act of 1961, the Manpower Development and Training Act of 1962, the
Vocational Education Act of 1963, and the Higher Education Facilities Act of 1963
were concerned with the education and training needs of the Nation. Some of these acts
specifically provided that occupational needs should be one of the factors on which
education and training programs should be based. Other legislation, such as the
Economic Opportunity Act of 1964, the Civil Rights Act of 1964, the Higher Education
Act of 1965, and the Appalachian Regional Development Act of 1965, focused
additional attention on the need for up-to-date information on future skill require­
ments.
Tom orrow's M anpower N eeds is an attempt to provide a basis for developing
manpower requirements information for States and areas through the use of national
manpower information. The report presents the latest projections of national manpower
requirements and provides a guide to their use in developing State and area manpower
projections. The Bureau hopes that this information will be useful also in planning
national programs of education and training, and in reviewing the extent to which State
and local programs are meeting the Nation’s manpower needs. Specifically, the
publication provides information on the impact of national developments on industry
and occupational manpower requirements. It presents the results of research on the
growth and changing composition of the population and the labor force, the relative
growth of industries, the effect of automation and other technological changes and
economic factors on industry employment, the occupational structure of industries,
patterns of working life, and techniques for appraising the supply of workers having
various skills. This information is provided to serve as a background and tool for the
appraisal of manpower requirements at the State and local level.
The bulletin reflects the continuing program of manpower research conducted by
the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consequently, the projections of industry and
occupational employment requirements supersede those published in previous Bureau
reports. In addition, some of the projection data never have been published before by
the Bureau in the detail presented in this report. It is anticipated that Tom orrow's
M anpower N eeds will be revised every few years to reflect the latest information
available as a result of the Bureau’s continuing program of manpower research.
The Bureau of Employment Security currently is preparing a companion volume,
H andbook fo r Projecting E m ploym en t by O ccupation fo r States and M ajor Areas,
which will explain in additional detail how analysts in State employment security
agencies can use various methods and sources of data, including the national manpower
information presented in this report, to develop State and area manpower estimates and
projections.




1

Chapter 1 of this volume is mainly concerned with techniques for using national
employment trends and projections as a tool for developing estimates of State and area
manpower needs. Methods are presented for relating local industry employment trends
to national industry trends and projections to estimate future industry employment
requirements at the local level. Similarly, methods are discussed for utilizing national
occupational patterns of industries—
current and projected— develop current and fu­
to
ture occupational estimates at the State and area level. Also presented in this chapter is a
description of how one State used projections of national industry employment and
occupational patterns in developing manpower requirements for that State and for
metropolitan areas within the State. This chapter also includes a review of several recent
reports that describe techniques which have been used to make local manpower
projections.
Chapter 2 presents information and methods for estimating occupational replace­
ment needs resulting from deaths and retirements.
. Chapter 3 discusses several approaches to appraising the adequacy of supply in
individual occupations.
The appendices to this volume present: projections to 1970 and 1980 of the
population and labor force for States and regions, by age and color; and estimated
national death and retirement rates for employed workers in 175 occupational
classifications, by sex.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics, as its resources permit, may be able to provide
technical assistance, including clarification of the methods described in this volume, to
organizations developing State and area manpower projections. Requests for such
assistance should be made to the appropriate BLS Regional Office, located as follows:
REGION I
1603-A Federal Building
Government Center
Boston, Mass. 02203
Phone: 223-6727 (Area code 617)
New Hampshire
Connecticut
Rhode Island
Maine
Vermont
Massachusetts
REGION II
341 Ninth Avenue
New York, N. Y. 10001
Phone: 971-5401 (Area code 212)
Puerto Rico
New Jersey
Virgin Islands
New York
REGION III
Penn Square Building, Room 406
1317 Filbert Street
Philadelphia, Pa. 19107
Phone: 597-7796 (Area code 215)
Pennsylvania
Delaware
Virginia
District of Columbia
West Virginia
Maryland
North Carolina

2




REGION IV
1371 Peachtree Street, N.E.
Atlanta, Ga. 30309
Phone: 526-5416 (Area code 404)
Mississippi
Alabama
South Carolina
Florida
Georgia
Tennessee
REGION V
219 South Dearborn Street
Chicago, 111. 60604
Phone: 353-7226 (Area code 312)
Minnesota
Illinois
Ohio
Indiana
Wisconsin
Kentucky
Michigan
REGION VI
911 Walnut Street
Kansas City, Mo. 64106
Phone: 374-2378 (Area code 816)
Nebraska
Colorado
North Dakota
Iowa
South Dakota
Kansas
Utah
Missouri
Wyoming
Montana

REGION VII
Mayflower Building
411 North Akard Street
Dallas, Tex. 75201
Phone: 749-3641 (Area code 214)
Arkansas
Louisiana
New Mexico




Oklahoma
Texas

REGION VIII
450 Golden Gate Avenue
Box 36017
San Francisco, California 94102
Phone: 556-3178 (Area code 415)
Alaska
Arizona
California
Hawaii

Idaho
Nevada
Oregon
Washington

3




TOMORROW’S MANPOWER NEEDS

Volume I.

USING N A T IO N A L MANPOWER D ATA TO DEVELOP STATE AND
A R EA MANPOWER PROJECTIONS

The purpose of this chapter is to suggest ways that
the information in this report may be of assistance to
analysts in developing State and area manpower projec­
tions. The chapter was prepared on the assumption that
area manpower projections can be developed more
adequately if the analyses are made within the context
of nationwide economic, technological, and demo­
graphic developments.
Volumes II and III of this report discuss changing
markets, technological developments, and other factors
expected to influence industry and occupational require­
ments through the mid-1970’s. This information can be
helpful in evaluating the reasonableness of local industry
and occupational projections. For example, projections
made of a rapid increase in industry employment in an
area may be questioned if, at the national level, the same
industry is projected to grow at a significantly different
rate, or even to decline. However, analysts may be able
to justify the different rates of growth on the basis of
knowledge about local markets, the movement of
industry into an area, or other factors affecting the local
industry’s employment. Similarly, a projected substan­
tial rise in employment in an occupation in an area may
be questioned in the light of a projected decline in
employment in the occupation nationally. Local ana­
lysts, however, also may be able to justify the difference
in the occupational growth rates. For example, the
industries that employ many workers in the occupation
may be growing much more rapidly in the area than in
the nation. Other factors that might account for the
difference in the growth rate would be area and national
variations in product mixes within industries and differ­
ences in the organization of production processes.
The data on the national occupational distribution of
individual industries in volume IV, appendix G are
potentially a major source of information for developing
local occupational employment estimates for a base
year. The national occupational patterns can be used
along with available local industry employment data to
derive estimates of area industry-occupational patterns.
Obviously, staffing patterns developed from local data
alone would be superior to national patterns for this
purpose. However, national patterns can be useful when
local data are not available, incomplete, or too aggre­
gated. In some industries, such as restaurants, hotels, and
banks, local occupational patterns may not differ signifi­
cantly from national patterns. Therefore, by using
national patterns for such industries, States and areas




can concentrate their resources on the development of
occupational structures for key or unique industries.
Most important, the national projections of industry
and occupational employment can be used as tools to
develop first approximations of future local industry and
occupational employment. For example, in developing
area projections of industry employment, local industry
employment trends can be related to industry employ­
ment nationally, and trends in the area’s share of
national employment determined. An extrapolation of
these trends, together with the national industry projec­
tions, can provide a first approximation of an industry’s
future employment in the area.
First approximations of employment by industry
should be refined by area analysts who are familiar with
the local economy and who can make use of local data1
and other resources, particularly studies or information
regarding the local economy developed by State govern­
ment agencies and private research groups. The informa­
tion obtained through contact with local employers
might be especially helpful.
Labor force projections frequently are used as a
control in developing industry and occupational projec­
tions. Persons who develop State and area projections
may find useful the projections of population and labor
force by State and area, 1970 and 1980, shown in
appendix C of this volume.
The following paragraphs discuss some simple tech­
niques for relating national and area employment trends
to develop first approximations of area employment by
industry. Following this discussion are explanations of
some techniques for utilizing national occupational
staffing patterns (industry-occupational matrix) to de­
velop occupational projections for an area. The rest of
the chapter relates an example of how national man­
power projections and other data were used by New
York State to develop industry and occupational projec1
Two directories of statistical sources are published by the
Federal Government. They contain information on sources of
Federal statistics for local areas. These directories are as follows:
Directory o f Federal Statistics for Local Areas: 1967, A
Guide to Sources, U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census. Available from U.S. Government Printing Office,
Washington, D.C. 20402-Price $2.25.
Guide to Industrial Statistics , 1964 edition, U.S. Depart­
ment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Available from U.S.
Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402-Price 40
cents.

5

tions. The last section also includes brief descriptions of
several manpower studies that develop methods and
project manpower characteristics.

A number of techniques can be used to develop State
and area industry employment projections. In accord­
ance with the assumptions underlying this publication,
which were stated in full in the preface to this volume,
the technique or mix of techniques selected by the
Industry Projections
manpower
The future employment level of individual industries regional such as the analysts should take into account
factors
resources available for projections,
is a primary determinant of occupational requirements, including the size and technical sophistication of the
because each industry has a unique occupational struc­ staff; the volume of projections required; the purpose of
ture. To cite an elementary example, a sharp change in the projections as they affect the need for accuracy and
total employment in the construction industry will have industry detail; and the availability of computer assist­
a marked effect on the requirements for blue-collar ance. Several techniques are described in some detail
workers—
carpenters, electricians, laborers, etc. On the below; each one has a different degree of acceptability in
other hand, if employment in the insurance industry terms of economic theory and each one requires varying
changes sharply, requirements for workers in white- amounts of technical expertise.
collar occupations will be affected significantly. Conse­
Local employment in industry can be compared
quently, estimating future employment in individual over time with nationalan employment in the same
industries is a major step in developing occupational
industry and a trend in the relationship can be deter­
employment requirements2.
mined by computing for each year the local industry
2
For a number of occupations, however, employmentemployment as a percentage of the industry’s employ­
estimates can be developed directly. (See the national techniques ment nationally. Table 1 and Chart 1 illustrate this
in appendix A to Volume IV for a discussion.)
procedure using wage and salary employment in the
Table 1.

R a t i o o f P e n n s y l v a n i a S t a t e Employment t o N a t i o n a l Employment
i n t h e F u r n i t u r e and F i x t u r e s I n d u s t r y 1 9 4 7 - 6 6 , and
P r o j e c t e d 197 5 1/
Employment
(In thousands)
N ational
|
State

Ye ar
1 9 4 7 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 9 4 8 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 9 4 9 ----------------- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------1 9 5 0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------1 9 5 1 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 9 5 2 - --------- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 9 5 3 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 9 5 4 - - -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 9 5 5 ----------------------------------------------- -------------- ------------------------------1 9 5 6 --------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------1 9 5 7 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 9 5 8 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 9 5 9 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------I 9 6 0 -------------------------- -------------------------------------------- -------------- -------1 9 6 1 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------1 9 6 2 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 9 6 3 ..................................................................................................... .........................
1 9 6 4 --------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 9 6 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------ -------------- -----------1 9 6 6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

336.0
346.0
317 oO
364.0
357.0
357.0
370.0
342.0
364.0
376.0
374.0
361.0
385.0
383.0
368.0
385.0
390.0
406.0
431.0
462.0

19 75 ( p r o j e c t e d ) --------------------------------------------------------------------

510.0

1/

Wage and s a l a r y w o r k e r s o n l y 0

6




S
’
1
i

|
;

19.8
21.2
18.1
23.6
20.9
22.6
24.7
22.4
23.9
25.0
25.2
23.9
24.4
23.7
2 2 .6

R atio
5.9
6 .1

5.7
6.5
5.9
6.3
6.7
6.5
6 .6
6 .6

6.7
6 .6

6.3
o2

6
6 .1

22.6
23 o 6
24.7
26.2
27.8

6 .1
6 .1
6 .1

30.1

5.9

5.9

6 .0

furniture and fixtures industry (SIC 25) for the Nation
and the State of Pennsylvania, for the years 1947
through 1966.3 Wage and salary employment in the
industry in the State can be projected by extrapolating
these relationships. The simplest way to extrapolate the
trends is to compute (or draw) a line of average
relationship, trend line, through the plotted historical
data and extend it to the target year. Chart 1 shows the
line of relationship extrapolated to 1975. The percent­
age derived for the target year, 5.9, then can be
multiplied by the national projection of wage and salary
employment in the furniture and fixtures industry
(510,000),4 to derive a first approximation of wage and
salary employment in the industry5 for the State of
Pennsylvania in the target year (about 30,100).
This technique may provide particularly good results
for industries that sell their products in a nationwide
market, as do most manufacturing and mining industries
and some industries in other divisions. For example, if
employment in basic steel is growing in the economy,
steel plants across the country usually will be increasing
employment. However, industries such as retail trade
and automobile repair services that sell in local markets
are generally more responsive to local trends in factors
such as population and income and, therefore, may not
provide as good results when the ratio method is used.6
In many industries area and national employment
trends may not show a close relationship. This statement
may be true for industries with different product mixes
at the local and national level or because of locational
shifts of industries caused by, for example, changes in
the regional size of markets, the input-output relation­
ships between industries, and the relative prices of labor
and materials in different regions. Regression techniques
may be used to take account of growth factors originat­
ing within an area. Chart 2 illustrates the results of using
multiple regression techniques to explain employment in
an industry strongly influenced by regional demand. The
form of the equation used was y = a + bx1+cx2,
where y represents retail trade employment in Illinois,
Xi represents population in Illinois, and x2 represents
3 National and State totals of employment by industry used
in this and the following example are limited to wage and salary
workers. Data are from Em ploym ent and Earnings Statistics for
States and Areas, Bulletin 1370-4, issued July 1967, and

E m ploym ent and Earnings Statistics for the United States,

Bulletin 1312-5, issued October 1967, both published by the
U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
4 See volume IV, appendix B for projections to 1975 of
wage and salary workers, by industry.
5 Techniques for developing total employment estimates
from wage and salary estimates are discussed on p. of this
volume.




per capita change in personal income in Illinois. When
regression techniques are used, the independent variables
chosen must be ones for which projections will be
available or can be made,i.e.,in the present illustration, a
projection of retail trade employment in Illinois can be
made from the regression equation only if both popula­
tion and per capita personal income have been projected.
Regression techniques also may be used to take
account of factors which influence employment in an
industry locally, in addition to those which effect the
industry nationally. For example, logarithmic or linear
regression could be used with area industry employment
as the dependent variable (y), and national industry
employment (bxx) and time (cx2) as independent
variables. In this approach national employment may
represent overall nationwide demand for the products of
the industry adjusted to allow for changes in produc­
tivity of labor, and time would account for the affect of
all other factors directly influencing industry employ­
ment in a particular region. The technique used by New
York State to project industry employment, as described
below, was similar to this approach.
Occupational Projections

The following paragraphs describe how the national
industry-occupational matrix can be used to develop
initial occupational patterns and/or projections for a

6
A tendency exists also for area and national employment
trends in industries that sell in local markets to move in a
consistent and measurable relationship over time. The following
are several reasons for this fact: (1) The area is a part of the
Nation and area industry employment changes are reflected in
the national industry employment levels; (2) the pattern of
demand for the products of local industries is affected greatly by
population and income in the region which, in turn, are
influenced by basic social and economic trends which affect the
whole Nation. Generally, if population and income are rising
rapidly in the Nation, they also are rising rapidly in m ost
sections of the country, and providing income to people for
purchasing many of the products and services of local market
industries; (3) a great amount of homogeneity exists across the
U.S. The tastes and preferences of the people of Lincoln,
Nebraska probably are very similar to those of the people of
Boston, Massachusetts. Limited by technology and social
customs, the population of both these cities own televisions,
automobiles, and houses, and, therefore, require the services of
TV repair and automobile repair firms, and plumbing and
painting contractors. They purchase local newspapers, telephone
friends, listen to local radio and TV, eat doughnuts and drink
soda pop, support local printing and publishing, advertising,
communications, and baking and beverage industries. Local
businesses in all areas of the country require the services of
auditing, banking, printing, and management consulting firms;
and the technology and the structure of industries, among other
factors, are similar throughout the country. As a result, price
structures for the products of local market industries are similar.

7

Chart 1.
FURNITURE AND FIXTURES INDUSTRY RATIO O EMPLOYMENT^
F
STATE O PENNSYLVANIA AND THE NATION, 1947-66,
F
AND PROJECTED, 1975

Ratio

1947

1952

1957

1962

1966

1975

1/ Wage and salary workers only.

State or area. The methods discussed by no means technology, changes in establishment size, the develop­
exhaust all the possible ways the national estimates may ment of new products, etc., are occurring constantly
be used. The data are not suited for use by all States and within an industry. All these factors spur growth in the
areas.
relative requirements for some occupations, and at the
The industry-occupational matrix is a set of occupa­ same time reduce the relative need for others. Basically,
tional patterns of industries representing the entire occupational projections developed through the
economy. (An occupational pattern for an industry is industry-occupational matrix system involve the use of
projections
the percent distribution of occupational employment in the two primary variables mentioned above—
that industry.) The national matrix presented in this of employment, by industry, and projections of the
occupational structure of each industry. When the
report covers 116 industries and 162 occupations.
occupational patterns of an industry in the target year
Use o f the N ational Industry-O ccupational M atrix S ys­ are applied to projected industry employment estimates,
an approximation of employment requirements for each
tem .1 As has been indicated previously, the future
employment level of individual industries is a primary
7
Vol. IV, appendix G of this report contains the 1960 and
determinant of occupational requirements because of
1975
matrices. Volume II dis­
each industry’s unique occupational structure. The cusses national industry-occupational to effect the occupational
the factors that are expected
second factor influencing the trend in occupational distribution of individual industries. Vol. IV, appendix A
employment is the changing occupational distribution of provides a description of the methods used to develop and
employment within industries. The application of new project the national matrix.
8




Chart 2.

EMPLOYMENT-RETAIL TRADE, STATE OF ILLINOIS, 1050-06,
AND PROIECTED RANGE-1 9 7 5
Employment (Thousands)

1950

1955

1960

1966

1975

J / Wage and salary workers only.
2 / Employment range computed from the equation based upon high-low U.S. Bureau of Census Popula­
tion projections for Illinois ( 1 1 ,8 7 9 ,0 0 0 - 1 1 ,3 9 5 ,0 0 0 ) and high-low changes in Personal Income per
capita for Illinois 1 9 6 2 -6 6 ($2 4 2 -$8 9 ). See U.S. Department of Commerce, Population Estimates,
Series P-2 5 , No. 3 7 5 , October 3 , 1 9 6 7 , and Survey of Current Business, Vol. 4 7 , No. 8, Aug. 1 9 6 7 .




9

of the occupations in the matrix is derived. By following
this procedure for each industry and summing the
results, estimates of total requirements for each occupa­
tion can be obtained.
The development of State and area occupational
projections through the use of the national industryoccupational matrices is possible through a variety of
methods. The following discussion is limited to two
techniques which appear to offer promise.8 The first is a
relatively simple system that is dependent upon both the
base period national matrix (1960) and the projected
national matrix (1975). The second technique is more
complex; it requires the development of an area base
period (1960) matrix. An area matrix then may be
projected to the target year by applying the national
trends in the occupational structure of each industry to
the occupational structure of corresponding industries in
the area base period matrix.
The first step of any method in which national
matrices are used is to make area industry employment
estimates consistent with the total employment concept
on which the national industry-occupational matrix is
based. Private wage and salary employment, by industry,
must be modified to include the other three classes of
workers, i.e., self-employed, unpaid family workers, and
government9 workers. Additional refinements also
should be made to the wage and salary employment
estimates. The first involves an adjustment to a oneperson one-job concept, which can be made by deduct­
ing the secondary jobs of multiple job holders. The
second refinement accounts for persons employed but
not at work (unpaid absences).10
The table presented in volume IV, appendix D
illustrates the proportion, nationally, of private wage
and salary workers to total employment for each
industry. Private wage and salary workers make up the
largest share of workers in most industries. As is shown,
the importance of the “other workers” varies widely
Q

A third method, somewhat different than either of these,
was followed by New York State and is described later in this
chapter.
9 Government workers involved in activities unique to
government are classified in the public administration industry.
Government workers in agencies engaged in activities also carried
on by private enterprises, such as education and medical services,
construction, transportation, and manufacturing, are classified in
their appropriate industry category, regardless of whether they
are paid from private or public funds.
10 For information on multiple job holders and unpaid
absences, see the Handbook o f Labor Statistics 1967, U.S.
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. For sale by the
U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 20402,
Price $2.
10




among the industries. Self-employed and unpaid family
workers are especially important in industries such as
agriculture; several service industries, including legal,
engineering, and medical services; retail trade; and
construction. Government workers make up a significant
part of the work force in industries such as educational
services, local public utilities, hospitals, shipbuilding, and
construction.
Two basic methods can be used by the area man­
power specialist to estimate the employment of these
three classes of workers. The simplest technique would
be to adopt the national relationships as shown in
volume IV, appendix D for both 1960 and 1975. This
technique might prove satisfactory for industries in
which the workers other than wage and salary workers
are relatively unimportant, but in others, particularly
those where large numbers of government workers are
concentrated, local analysts may want to develop their
own estimates through the use of other data.11
Once area industry employment estimates on the
total employment concept have been developed for both
1960 and 1975, first approximations of projected area
occupational employment requirements may then be
derived through one of the following methods.
Area Projection M ethod A .12 This technique uses the
national base period and projected matrices, and does
not require a special area matrix. In general, estimates of
area occupational requirements are made by applying
1960 and 1975 national industry-occupational patterns
to their appropriate area industry employment estimates
for each year; summing the resulting occupational
employment to area totals; computing the 1960 to 1975
11 Industry employment is reported separately for each
class of worker in 1950 U.S. Census of Population, Vol. II,
Characteristics o f the Population, Table No. 83, and 1960 U.S.
Census o f Population, Vol. I, Characteristics o f the Population,
Table No. 129, U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Bureau of
the Census. These data are available for all States and for
Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas that have a population
of over 250,000. The Population Census data should provide a
basis for estimating employment levels for self-employed, unpaid
family, and government workers, and for determining the trend
in employment of these workers by industry. Additional
information on employment of government workers also is
available from the Census o f Government, 1966, Vol. Ill,
Compendium o f Public Em ploym ent, and the annual reports on
State Distribution o f Public Em ploym ent, published by the
Bureau of the Census. Information on self-employed workers in
selected industries is available from the 1963 and earlier editions
of the Census of Busiijess and the Census of Manufacturers, also
published by the Bureau of the Census.
12 See footnote 17 for a mathematical expression of
Method A.

change factors (percent change) for each occupation;
and applying the change factors to separately estimated
1960 area occupational employment totals. The individ­
ual steps involved are:
a. The 1960 national industry-occupational patterns
are applied to their respective 1960 area industry em ploy­
m ent estim ates. The resulting occupational em ploym ent is
then summed to area totals. This same procedure is
follow ed using the 1975 national industry-occupational
patterns and projected area industry em ploym ent esti­
mates. In table 2, this step is illustrated in column 3
(1960) and colum n (1975). In this exam ple, the two
aggregates were 42,660 for 1960 and 57,921 for 1975.
b. The 1960-75 change factor for the occupations
then must be computed by dividing the 1975 em ploy­
m ent aggregate by the 1960 em ploym ent aggregate
developed in step “a” . In table 2, the resulting change
factor for automobile mechanics and repairmen was
57,921 or 1.358.
42,660
6

c. Base period (1960) area em ploym ent estimates
must be made for each occupation for which projections
are desired. The 1960 Census can supply the basic data
needed for these estim ates (Other data sources should
be investigated and utilized, if available
For illustra­
tive purposes, the base period (1960) em ploym ent of
automobile mechanics and repairmen in State Z was
reported to be 43,800 workers. This number is som e­
what higher than the 1960 em ploym ent com puted in step
“b ” . Such differences should be expected, since the
patterns used in step “b” are national averages. The
differences in the estimates developed in steps b. and c.
point out that in one or more industries a higher
proportion o f automobile mechanics and repairmen are
em ployed in State Z than the national average.
1 3

.1 4

. ) 15

1 6

applying the change factor to the base period area
em ploym ent determined in step “c” . By applying the
change factor in table 2, the estimated 1975 em ploym ent
for automobile mechanics and repairmen in State Z is
calculated to be 59,480:

The above procedure must be repeated for each
occupation for which projections are desired. When this
procedure is used, local projections are possible for each
occupation and occupation group included in the nation­
al matrices.
Area Projection M ethod B } 1 Method B integrates
national industry-occupational structure trends with a
specially developed area base period matrix. In order to
use method B, an area base period industry-occupational
matrix must be developed independently. Then, an area
target year (1975) matrix is computed by applying the
changes, 1960-75, projected for the industryoccupational structures at the national level to the
corresponding industries in the area base period, 1960,
matrix. Initial 1975 area occupational employment
estimates then can be made by applying the 1975 area
1 7

A mathematical formula for m ethods A and B follows:
M ethod A

Method B

1 4

1 5

1 6




fjj(75) I (75)
Lj(75) = i= l
------------------------------------------------Lj(60)
n
fij(60) Lj(60)
i= l
4

2

1 3

6

n
2

d. The initial 1975 em ploym ent estimate o f autom o­
bile mechanics and repairmen then may be computed by
1960 Census o f Population, Vol. I, Characteristics o f the
Population, Parts 1-50, tables 74, 84, and 121, U.S. Department
o f Commerce, Bureau o f the Census.
The U.S. Census o f Population is the major source o f
detailed occupational em ploym ent statistics. Users o f these data
should be aware o f their limitations, such as general undercount,
possible response errors, classification problems, etc. For a more
thorough evaluation o f the Census occupational em ploym ent
data see O ccupational E m ploym en t Statistics, Sources and Data,
BLS Report 305, or Evaluation and Research Program o f the
U.S. Census o f Population and H ousing 1960: The E m ployer
R ecord Check, Series ER 60, No. . U.S. Department o f
Commerce, Bureau o f the Census.
See, for exam ple, Occupational E m ploym en t Statistics,
Sources and D ata, U.S. Department o f Labor, Bureau o f Labor
Statistics, BLS Report 305.
The reported 43,800 workers in 1960 may have come
from such sources as the Census o f Population 1960 or an Area
Skill Survey for that year.

1975 Em ploym ent o f
Automobile Mechanics
and Repairmen in
State Z
= 59,480

Occupational Trend Factor
(1.358) x Base Period
Occupation Em ploym ent
(43,800)
1 .3 5 8 x 4 3 ,8 0 0

where

Lj(75) =

n
2

i= l

L if(7 5) . Li(75)

fy(75)
Lij*(75) = fij(60)

. Ljj*(60)

Ly (year) is local em ploym ent by industry i and occupation j
in the given year.
Lj (year) is total local em ploym ent in industry i in the given
year.
fjj (year) is national fraction o f occupation j in industry i in
the given year.
Li* (year) is local fraction o f occupation j in industry i in given
year.
Lj (year) is total local em ploym ent in occupation j.
11

T a b le

2.

M ethod A - - D e v e lo p m e n t o f A r e a Em ploym ent T re n d F a c t o r f o r A u to m o b ile
M e c h a n ic s and R ep a irm en in S t a t e Z U s in g N a t i o n a l M a t r ic e s

1960 S t a t e
Z to ta l
in d u s t r y
em ploym ent

In d u s t r y

(1 )
M o to r v e h i c l e and e q u ip m en t
m a n u fa c t u r in g ------------------------------L o c a l and in t e r u r b a n t r a n s i t ,
e x c e p t t a x i s --------------------------------T r u c k in g -------------------------------------------M o to r v e h i c l e and eq u ip m e n t
( w h o l e s a l e ) ----------------------------------A u t o m o b ile and a c c e s s o r y d e a l e r s
( r e t a i l ) ---------------------------------------Gas s t a t i o n s ------------------------ -----------A u to m o b ile r e p a i r s e r v i c e s ----------A l l o t h e r (1 0 9 ) i n d u s t r i e s ----------T o ta l

IV
2/

1960 n a t i o n a l
r a t i o JV o f
a u to m o b ile
m ech a n ics t o
to ta l
em ploym ent
(p e r c e n t)
(2 )

Column 1
X
Column 2

1975 e s t im a t e d
S ta te Z t o t a l
in d u s t r y
em ploym en t

(4 )

(3 )

1975 n a t i o n a l
r a t i o IV o f
a u t o m o b ile
m ec h a n ic s o f
to ta l
em ploym en t
(p e r c e n t )
(5 )

Column 4
X
Column 5

(6 )

3 7 7 ,2 0 0

3 .7 7

1 4 ,2 2 0

4 0 8 ,0 0 0

3 .0 7

1 2 ,5 2 6

8 ,5 0 0
3 5 ,9 0 0

6 .9 6
3 .3 7

592

8,000

1,210

4 5 ,0 0 0

5 .2 9
4 .1 5

1,868

6,000

1 .7 2

103

10,000

1 .7 4

174

3 5 ,2 0 0
2 8 ,3 0 0
2 0 ,4 0 0
3 ,1 7 9 ,5 0 0

27 .3 1
8 .8 3
5 5 .4 7
(2 )

9 ,6 1 3
2 ,4 9 9
11,3 1 6
2/ 3 ,1 0 7

5 4 ,0 0 0
4 4 ,0 0 0
3 7 ,0 0 0
4 ,1 7 4 ,0 0 0

2 9 .6 4
12 .4 9
4 7 .8 5
(2 )

1960-75 a r e a
ch a n ge f a c t o r
f o r a u to m o b ile
m ech a n ics
( t o t a l colum n
6) f ( t o t a l
c o 1umn 3 )
(7 )

1 6 ,0 0 6
5 ,4 9 6
1 7 ,7 0 5
2 / 3 ,7 2 3

116 i n d u s t r i e s -------------

423

4 2 ,6 6 0

A v a i l a b l e in Volum e I V , a p p e n d ix G.
Each o f th e 109 in d u s t r y e s t im a t e s w e re com puted s e p a r a t e l y .

5 7 ,921

They a r e

occupational-industry patterns to projected area indus­
try employment and aggregating the results to area
occupational totals. The individual steps involved are as
follows:
a. An area occupational-industry matrix for the base
period must be developed. (Occupation-industry profiles,
for example, are available for all areas that have over
250,000 population, from the 1960 Census o f Popula­
tion
Table 3, column 4 illustrates a State pattern for a
single industry (construction) derived from the 1960
Census.
b. The 1960-75 occupation change factors must be
com puted for each cell in the national matrices by
dividing each 1975 occupational ratio by its correspond­
ing 1960 occupational ratio (1975 National Matrix Cell).
(1960 National Matrix Cell).
In table 3, colum n 3 shows this step for each occupation
in the construction industry.
. ) 1 8

In this instance, the resulting trend factor for civil
engineers is 2.39 (1975) , . . .
1.86 (I9 6 0 )’ 1-284‘
Appendixes I and J o f volume IV provide the national
occupational change factors discussed above. Appendix I
0 1

com bined h e r e b e c a u s e o f

space

1 .3 5 8

lim ita tio n s .

includes the factors directly matching the industry and
occupational data published in the decennial census,
which is available to States and areas. Appendix J
provides change factors for a more d eta iled set o f
industries, so States and areas may select change factors
m ost appropriate to their needs. For exam ple, in appen­
dix I, the “other nondurable goods” sector includes
petroleum refining, rubber products and leather products
industries. If an area’s em ploym ent is largely concentrated
in petroleum refining, the area analysts may wish to select
the change factors from appendix J representing petro­
leum refining rather than the more aggregated category o f
“other nondurable goods.”
c. The 1975 area matrix is computed by applying the
derived national occupation change factors to the corre­
sponding cell in the area base period (1960) matrix. Table
3, colum n 5, illustrates this step as follow s for civil
engineers:
National trend factor x 1960 area ratio = 1975 area ratio
1.284 x 2.15% = 2.76%
This procedure is repeated for all occupations in an
industry and the resulting occupational ratios summed to
industry totals and forced, on a prorated basis, to
percent.
d. In order to forecast State Z’s total requirements for
an occupation, steps b and c must be com pleted for each
industry and the resulting occupational ratios for the
projected year for each industry applied to the separately
projected area industry em ploym ent estim ates. (See Table
3, colum n . In this illustration, the em ploym ent require­
ments in the construction industry in State Z were
projected to be 275,000 in 1975.)
1 0 0

18
1960 Census o f Population, vol. I, Characteristics o f the
P opulation. table N o. 125, U.S. Department o f Commerce,
Bureau o f the Census a special tabulation providing further
industry and occupational detail has been obtained from the
U.S. Bureau o f the Census by some States for a fee. See also
O ccupational E m ploym en t Statistics, Sources and Data, U.S.
Department o f Labor, Bureau o f Labor Statistics, BLS Report
305, for other sources o f occupational data.

12




6

The resulting occupational estimate for each industry can
then be aggregated to obtain the area’s total em ploym ent
requirements for the occupation in the target year.

Occupational projections developed through the use
of relatively mechanical systems such as those discussed
in the preceding paragraphs, should be viewed only as
first approximations. They do, however, provide the
local manpower analyst a base upon which to begin his
evaluation. Method A seems to offer the best balance
between the systems input requirements and the quality
and quantity of projections produced. Its relative sim­
plicity and adaptability to smaller areas makes it
especially attractive. Method B is a more complex
approach. The development of the special area matrix
required by this technique could prove to be a difficult
and resource consuming task. Furthermore, the projec­
tions might prove less desirable, if data limitations
forced the creation of an area matrix with considerably
less industry detail than that available at the national
level. The occupational structures of detailed industries
are sometimes significantly different than that of the
industry group of which they are a part. On the other
hand, an area matrix with relatively detailed industry
base, such as that which may be obtained from a special
Census tabulation, would have many advantages. For
example, it would provide the area analyst a tool to
develop current occupational employment estimates by
utilizing the base period occupational structure, on the
assumption that occupational patterns do not change
significantly in the short run, or by adjusting the base
period structure on the basis of new data.
The use of the national matrices also offers the
prospect of preparing a range of occupational projec­
tions based on differing assumptions of an area’s future
economic conditions by developing alternative projec­
tions of industry employment or by modifying the
changes expected in the occupational structure of an
area’s key industries. Such flexibility may prove espe­
cially valuable in States and areas where the industrial
structure is changing rapidly and where future levels of
industry employment depend greatly on factors such as
defense expenditures, which are difficult to predict.
The growth in employment requirements for each
occupation determined through the methods discussed
above or similar methods are but a first step in
estimating the overall occupational requirements in the
projected period. To the growth estimates must be
added replacement needs expected as a result of deaths,
retirements, and transfers of experienced workers to
other occupations. Several methods for estimating such
openings are discussed in the following chapter.




Test o f M ethod A . A test of occupational projection
method A was made to provide a basis for evaluating its
accuracy. A less complex method (A1) also was tested to
determine whether more accurate projections were
attained by “localization” of the national matrix (steps c
and d, page ) in method A. Test method A1 was based
on the assumption that an area’s industry-occupational
patterns, in addition to its trends (method A), are the
same as national industry-occupational patterns in the
base and projected years.
The test of the technique was limited, because it was
performed for one State and focused on the accuracy of
method A only. It assumed that industry employment
projections for Ohio made in 1950 for 1960 were
perfect. It further assumed that projections of national
industry-occupational patterns made in 1950 for 1960
also were perfect. In reality, error would be involved in
each of these steps, in addition to the error associated
with the collection of the basic data.
Data on 40 occupations for the nation and the State
of Ohio in 1950 and 1960 were used in the test.
National industry-occupational patterns for 1950 and
I96019 were applied to detailed industry employment
totals for Ohio in 1950 and I96020, respectively.
Preliminary 1950 and 1960 estimates of occupational
employment in Ohio were derived by summing employ­
ment in each of the 40 occupations across all industries.
Final projections (method A) were made by deriving a
coefficient of occupational change for each occupation
between 1950 and 1960, and applying it to the
respective occupational totals for 1950, as shown in the
Census of Population, 1960, for Ohio. For method A1,
the preliminary projections based solely on national
industry-occupational patterns and trends were consid­
ered the final projections.
Table 4 presents the results of the test of projection
method A, shown as a percent of actual occupational
employment in Ohio in 1960. Of the 31 detailed
occupations in the test of method A, 18 were projected
between 105 and 95 percent of actual employment in
1960, and 27 between 110 and 90 percent. Differences
in industry product mix in Ohio and the nation were
important determinants of those projections that were
significantly in error. For example, the projection of
Derived from data in the U.S. Census o f Popula­
tion: 1960, O ccupation by Industry, Final Report PC(92)-7C.
U.S. Department o f Commerce, Bureau o f the Census 1963.
1 9

20 U.S. Census o f Population: 1960, D etailed Character­
istics, Ohio, Final R epo rt PC(1)-37D. U.S. Department o f
Commerce, Bureau o f the Census.

13

T ab le 3 . M ethod B - - P r o j e c t in g Em ploym ent R eq u irem en ts in th e C o n str u c tio n
I n d u s tr y , 1 / by O c c u p a tio n , in S t a t e Z, U sin g N a tio n a l M a trix T rends

O ccu p a tio n

T o t a l, a l l o c c u p a t io n s ---------------- P r o f e s s i o n a l , t e c h n i c a l, and
k in d r e d w o r k e r s-------------------------------------A c c o u n ta n ts and a u d it o r s -------------------A r c h i t e c t s ...... .................. - .................................. ■C h em ists and n a tu r a l s c i e n t i s t s -----D e s ig n e r s and d r a fts m e n ---------------------E n g in e e r s , c i v i l -----------------------------------E n g in e e r s , e l e c t r i c a l -------------------------E n g in e e r s , i n d u s t r i a l - .................................
E n g in e e r s , m e c h a n ic a l-------------------------E n g in e e r s , o th e r t e c h n i c a l ....................L aw yers and ju d g e s --------------------------------P e r s o n n e l and la b o r r a la t io n s
w o r k e r s---------------------------------------------- - S u r v e y o r s ------------------------------------------------ -O th er t e c h n ic ia n s , e x c e p t m ed ica l
and d e n t a l - ---------------------------------------- O th er p r o f e s s i o n a l, t e c h n i c a l, and
k in d r e d w o r k e r s-------------------------------- -M an agers, o f f i c i a l s , and p r o p r ie to r s
C l e r i c a l and k in d r e d w o r k e r s...................
B o o k k e ep e rs---------------------------------------- -----O f f ic e m ach in e o p e r a t o r s --------------------S te n o g r a p h e r s , t y p i s t s and
s e c r e t a r i e s ---------------------------------------- -T elep h o n e o p e r a t o r s ------------------------------S h ip p in g and r e c e iv in g c le r k s -------- -O th er c l e r i c a l w o r k e r s------------------------S a le s w o r k e r s-------------------------------------------- -C r a ftsm e n , fo r e m en , and k in d re d
w o r k e r s------------------------------------------------------B la c k s m ith s , fo r g e m e n , and hammermen-------------------------------------------------------- —
B o ile r m a k e r s ---------------------------------------------




N a tio n a l m a tr ic e s 2 /
C o n str u c tio n
C o n s tr u c tio n
in d u s tr y p a t ­
in d u s tr y p a t ­
te r n , 1960
t e r n , 1975
(p e r c e n t)
(p e rc en t)
(2 )
(1 )
1 0 0 .0 0

7 .2 0
.3 8
.0 3
.0 4

(3 )

1 0 0 .0 0

5 .5 5
.2 7
.0 3
.0 4
.7 3

1 9 6 0 -7 5
n a t io n a l
ch an ge 3 /
fa c to r s

C o n str u c tio n 4 /
in d u s tr y p a t ­
te r n , S ta te Z
1960
(p e r c e n t )
(4 )
1 0 0 .0 0

5 .9 7
.3 4
.0 5

D e r iv e d 1975 1 P r o j e c te d 1975
em ploym ent in
c o n s t r u c t io n
in d u s tr y p a t ­
c o n s tr u c tio n
te r n , S ta te Z
in d u str y
(p e r c e n t )
S ta te Z
(6 )
(5 )
5 /1 0 0 .0 0
6

/

7 .5 7
.4 8
.0 5

7 /2 7 5 ,0 0 0
7 / 2 0 ,8 1 8
1 ,3 2 0
138
55
2 ,5 5 8
7 ,5 9 0
303
. 83
275
440
83

.0 9
.0 3

1 .4 0 9
1 .0 3 4
.9 9 2
1 .1 6 5
1 .2 8 4
1 .0 7 0
1 .0 8 4
1 .0 4 6
1 .1 3 9
.9 1 8

.03
.3 3

.0 6
.5 2

2 .3 6 2
1 .5 7 1

.2 3

.3 6

.0 2

55
990

1 .2 7

1 .7 0

1 .3 4 2

.9 0

1 .2 1

3 ,3 2 8

.71
1 1 .5 9
4 .3 1
1 .1 9
.0 4

.9 1
1 1 .2 9
6 .0 5
1 .5 2
.0 8

1 .2 8 2
.9 7 4
1 .2 7 4
1 .8 8 0

1 .2 6

1 .7 9
.0 4

1 .0 2 1

1 .8 6

.0 6

.0 2

.0 9
.0 8
.0 3

.0 4
.0 2

.8 6

2 .3 9
.0 7

.0 2
.1 0

.0 1

1 .7 6
.3 0

2 .6 1
.3 7

5 1 .8 0

.0 4
.1 3

.4 3 9
1 .4 8 3
1 .2 2 4

4 8 .9 6

.0 3
.1C

1 .4 2 1

.8 0
2 .1 5

.9 3
2 .7 6

.1 0

.1 1

.0 3

.0 3

.1 0

.1 0

.1 6
.0 3

.1 4
.0 3
.0 1

1 .3 1

1 .0 2

1 0 .3 0
4 .2 3
1 .0 4
.0 3

6

1 .3 6
.0 6
.0 4
1 .7 0
.4 0
5 5 .4 1

1 .3 5 6
1 .3 4 8

.0 2

.0 2

.0 4
.1 4

/

1 0 .0 2

5 .9 1
1 .3 2
.0 6

3 ,6 0 3
'27,555
7 / 1 6 ,2 5 3
3 ,6 3 0
165

2 .5 2
.4 9

.0 2

5 ,3 0 8
165
55
6 ,9 3 0
1 ,3 4 8

/ 5 2 .5 1

7 /1 4 4 ,4 0 3

.0 5
.1 9

138
523

1 .9 3
.0 6

6

T a b le 3 . M ethod B - - P r o j e c t in g Em ploym ent R eq u irem en ts in th e C o n str u c tio n
I n d u s tr y , 1 / by O c c u p a tio n , in S ta te Z, U sin g N a tio n a l M a trix T r e n d s - -C o n tin u ed

O ccu p a tio n

C a b in etm a k ers and p a t te r n m ak ers----C a r p e n te r s -----------------------------------------------C ranem en, d e rr ic k m e n , and h o istm e n E l e c t r i c i a n s ...........................................................
F orem en, n o t e ls e w h e r e c l a s s i f i e d - M a c h in is ts and jo b s e t t e r s ......................
M ech an ics and r ep a irm en ---------------------M illw r ig h t s ..............................................................
P lu m b ers and p i p e f i t t e r s -------------------T in s m ith s , c o p p e r s m ith s , and sh e e t
m e ta l w o r k e r s---------------------- --------------O th er c r a fts m e n ................. ..................................
O p e r a tiv e s and k in d re d w o r k e rs-----------D r iv e r s (t r u c k , e t c . ) and d e liv e r y men-------------------------------------------- - ...............
W eld er s-------------------------------------------- --------O th er o p e r a t iv e s -----------------------------------S e r v ic e w o r k e r s -............- ------------- --------------Charwom en, j a n i t o r s , and p o r t e r s - *G u ard s, w atchm en, and d o o r k e e p e r s -O ther s e r v i c e w o r k e r s -- ..............................
L a b o r e r s , e x c e p t fa r m -.............. ....................-

N a tio n a l m a tr ic e s 2 /
C o n s tr u c tio n
C o n s tr u c tio n
in d u s tr y p a t- - in d u s tr y p a t ­
t e r n , 1960
t e r n , 1975
(p ercen t)
(p e rc en t)
(2 )
(1 )
.1 6
1 6 .1 4
.4 1
3 .3 8
2 .2 3
.0 7
2 .0 3
.1 2

4 .6 1

.1 4
1 1 .8 9
.5 5
3 .6 1
3 .1 2
.0 6
2 .6 6

.1 9
4 .6 7

.8 4

1 .0 4

2 1 .6 8

2 0 .8 6

3 .5 7
.7 6
3 .5 3
.5 0
.1 7
.1 6
.1 7
1 8 .0 9

4 .6 0

7 .8 6

1 1 .7 8

1 .2 0

5 .9 8
.5 2
.2 7
.0 9
.1 6
1 3 .8 3

1 9 6 0 -7 5
n a t io n a l
ch an ge 3 /
fa c to r s
(3 )

C o n s tr u c tio n 4 / ’
in d u s tr y p a t ­
te r n , S ta te Z
1960
(p e r c e n t )
(4 )

.9 2 4
.7 3 7
1 .3 4 7
1 .0 7 0
1 .4 0 1
.8 0 0
1 .3 0 7
1 .5 6 8
1 .0 1 4

D e r iv e d 1975
c o n s t r u c t io n
in d u s tr y p a t ­
te r n , S ta te Z
(p e r c e n t )
(5 )

.0 7
1 6 .4 0
.4 7
4 .3 5
2 .0 9
.0 9
2 .3 9

P r o j e c te d 1975
em ploym ent in
c o n s t r u c t io n
in d u s tr y
S ta te Z
(6 )

5 .3 4

.0 6
1 2 .0 7
.6 3
4 .6 4
2 .9 3
.0 7
3 .1 2
.1 9
5 .4 0

165
3 3 ,1 9 3
1 ,7 3 3
1 2 ,7 6 0
8 ,0 5 8
193
8 ,5 8 0
523
1 4 ,8 5 0

1 .2 4 1
.9 6 2

1 .1 7
2 2 .6 1
7 .0 4

1 .4 5
2 1 .7 1
6 / 1 0 .6 7

3 ,9 8 8
5 9 ,7 0 3
7 / 2 9 ,3 4 3

1 .2 9 0
1 .5 8 0
1 .6 9 5

2 .9 3
.5 5
3 .5 6
.6 1

3 .7 8
.8 7

1 0 ,3 9 5
2 ,3 9 3
1 6 ,5 5 5
7 / 1 ,6 5 0
468
165
1 ,0 1 8
3 3 ,6 3 3

1 .5 3 5
.5 4 0
.941
.7 6 4

.1 2

.1 1
.1 1

.3 9
1 6 .0 4

6

/

6 .0 2

.6 0
.1 7
.0 6
.3 7
1 2 .2 3

1 / C o n s tr u c tio n in d u s tr y in c lu d e s wage and s a l a r y , s e l f em p lo y ed , and u n p a id fa m ily w ork ers em ployed in th e c o n tr a c t c o n s tr u c ­
t io n in d u s tr y (SIC 1 5 -1 7 ) . I t a ls o in c lu d e s w ork ers em p loyed in govern m en t a g e n c ie s en gag ed in c o n s t r u c t io n a c t i v i t i e s su ch as
highw ay m a in te n a n c e , lan d r e c la m a tio n , and w a ter w o rk s. I t d o e s n o t in c lu d e w ork ers en gag ed in f o r c e a c c o u n t c o n s tr u c tio n o r
m a in ten a n ce in m a n u fa c tu r in g , p u b lic u t i l i t i e s , and o th e r i n d u s t r i e s .
2 / A v a ila b le in A ppendix B o f t h i s r e p o r t. O c c u p a tio n s n o t shown s e p a r a t e ly a r e com bined w ith a p p r o p r ia te r e s id u a l c a t e g o r ie s .
3 / S ee A p p en d ix I o r J fo r n a t io n a l in d u s tr y -o c c u p a tio n a l ch an ge f a c t o r s .
4 / D e r iv e d from 1960 C ensus o f P o p u la tio n , C h a r a c t e r i s t ic s o f th e P o p u la t io n , t a b le 1 2 5 , I n d u str y Group o f th e Em ployed by
O c c u p a tio n , U .S . D epartm ent o f Commerce, B ureau o f th e C e n su s.
5 / A fte r f i r s t c o m p u ta tio n , th e d e r iv e d 1975 p a t te r n summed to 1 0 0 .1 2 p e r c e n t . F in a l p a t te r n was th e n com puted by f o r c in g to
1 0 0 .0 0 p e r c e n t on a p r o r a te d b a s i s .
6/
Sum o f in d iv id u a l o c c u p a tio n s in th e m ajor o c c u p a tio n g r o u p .
7 / I n d iv id u a l ite m s may n o t add to t o t a l b e c a u se o f r o u n d in g .




electrical engineers was almost one/quarter higher than
the actual level. The reason may be that industries in
Ohio tend to have less research and development
activity, which is concentrated regionally, than their
counterparts nationally. Moreover, Ohio’s plants classi­
fied in industries that employ high proportions of
electrical engineers may tend to produce household
appliances rather than technologically complex equip­
ment such as defense and space communications sys­
tems. Either one of these situations could have
accounted for the significant error in the projection of
electrical engineers.

In the test of method A, better results were obtained
for occupational groups than for detailed occupations.
The fact that substitution of workers in detailed
occupations is probably more prevalent than substitu­
tion between occupational groups was responsible for
this result. Another conclusion from the tests was that
the assumption underlying method A, that the trend in
occupational usage in particular industries at the area
level follows industry-occupational trends nationally,
appears to be substantially correct. The test also pointed
out that the level of industry usage of occupations can
differ significantly between an area and the nation. This

T a b le 4 0 P r o j e c t i o n s o f S e l e c t e d O c c u p a tio n s U s in g M ethod A , S t a t e o f
O h io , a s P e r c e n t o f A c tu a l E m ploym ent in th e P r o j e c t e d Y ear
O c c u p a tio n
P r o f e s s i o n a l , t e c h n i c a l , and k in d r e d ------------------------------ ---------- -----------C h e m is ts ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------D r a fts m e n ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------E n g in e e r s , e l e c t r i c a l --------------------------------------------------------------------------------N u r s e s , p r o f e s s i o n a l ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------T e c h n ic ia n s , m e d ic a l and d e n t a l -----------------------------------------------------------M a n a g e r s, o f f i c i a l s , and p r o p r i e t o r s -----------------------------------------------------C l e r i c a l and k in d r e d ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Bank t e l l e r s ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------C a s h i e r s ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------O f f i c e m a ch in e o p e r a t o r s --------------------------------------------------------------------------S e c r e t a r i e s , s t e n o g r a p h e r s , and t y p i s t s ------------------------------------------S a l e s w o r k e r s -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------C r a fts m e n , fo r e m e n , and k in d r e d ---------------------------------------------------------------B a n k e r s --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------B r ic k m a s o n s , s to n e m a s o n s , and t i l e s e t t e r s ------------------------------------C a r p e n t e r s --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------C o m p o s ito r s and t y p e s e t t e r s -------------------------------------------------------------------E l e c t r i c i a n s ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------L in e m e n --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------M a c h in i s t s -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------A u to m o b ile m e c h a n ic s and r e p a ir m e n -----------------------------------------------------O f f i c e m a ch in e m e c h a n ic s and r e p a ir m e n --------------------------------------------R a d io , and t e l e v i s i o n m e c h a n ic s and r e p a ir m e n -----------------------------M i l l w r i g h t s -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------P a i n t e r s , c o n s t r u c t i o n and m a in t e n a n c e --------------------------------------------P lu m b er s and p i p e f i t t e r s --------------------------------------------------------------------------T o o l- a n d - d ie m a k ers and d i e s e t t e r s --------------------------------------------------O p e r a t iv e s and k in d r e d ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------A t t e n d a n t s , a u t o m o b ile s e r v i c e and p a r k in g ------------------------------------B u s, tr u c k and t r a c t o r d r i v e r s , t a x i d r i v e r s , and c h a u f f e u r s
D e li v e r y and r o u te m e n --------------------------------------------------------------------------------L aundry and d ry c le a n in g o p e r a t i v e s --------------------------------------------------M eat c u t t e r s ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------W eld er s and fla m e c u t t e r s ------------------------------------------------------------------------S e r v i c e w o r k e r s , e x c e p t p r i v a t e h o u s e h o ld ------------------------------------------P r a c t i c a l n u r s e s -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------W a ite r s and w a i t r e s s e s ------------------------------------------------------------------------------L a b o r e r s , e x c e p t farm and m in e -----------------------------------------------------------------F a r m e r s, farm m a n a g e r s-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

16




P ercent
102
94
106
123
102
99
101
10 0
92
104
111
93
99
102
109
93
98
113
101
105
105
103
100
99
112
101
101
91
103
107
109
10 4
97
96
111
101
97
101
91
101

fact accounted for the general overall superiority of
method A, which takes into account local industryoccupational levels, than method A1.
Method A worked somewhat better for occupations
concentrated in a small number of industries than for
occupations scattered throughout many industries. For
example, the results of the method for practical nurses
(97 percent), waiters and waitresses (101 percent),
professional nurses (102 percent), and radio and TV
repairmen (99 percent), were particularly good, and less
so for secretaries (93 percent), draftsmen (106 percent),




office machine operators (111 percent), and machinists
(105 percent). However, the opposite was true in several
instances; for example, the result for bank tellers should
have been very satisfactory (92 percent), and for
electricians, rather poor (101 percent).
On the basis of the limited test, several tentative
conclusions can be drawn. First, method A provides
generally reliable results. Second, knowledge of local
industry is indispensable to improving the quality of the
results; and third, the greatest industry detail available
should be used in following method A.

17

HOW N A TIO N A L MANPOWER IN FO R M A TIO N WAS USED TO DEVELOP
MANPOWER PROJECTIONS FOR A STATE AND AREAS
The New York State Department of Labor's Manpower Projections
for the State and Its Areas: A Preliminary
Report on Method2 1

The Division of Research and Statistics of the New
York State Department of Labor is developing projec­
tions of the number of jobs in 1970 and 1975, by
occupation and industry, for New York State and its
eleven major industrial areas. In making these projec­
tions the Department is utilizing--as far as they are
applicable~the techniques and the over-all framework of
the corresponding national projections of the U.S.
Bureau of Labor Statistics, described in this bulletin.
The Division began by making estimates for 1960 and
1965 in the same detail as was desired for the 1970 and
1975 projections. The five main steps are listed below.
Further on, each is described, first in connection with
the 1960 benchmark figures and then in their applica­
tion to later years.
1. Labor force: To establish the number in the labor
force, by age and sex.
2. Nonfarm jobs: To establish the number of nonfarm
wage and salary jobs, by industry.
3. Total jobs: To establish the total number of jobs, by
industry, by adding to number 2: farm jobs, selfemployed and unpaid family workers and domestics, as
well as a distribution of government jobs, to conform to
Census of Population industry concepts.
4. Reconciliation: To reconcile the conceptual differ­
ences between number 1 with number 3.
5. Matrix: To construct a matrix of the total number of
jobs-occupation by industry division-in which the indus­
try totals conform to those of number 3.

for the State and its areas had to come trom the Census
of Population. However, these data could not be used
without a considerable amount of adjustment. They had
to be integrated with data from other sources in order to
obtain a set of data which was comparable to that used
by BLS in its projection process. The adjustments made
in the State series for 1960 are described in some detail
below. Similar adjustments were made for the areas.
The civilian labor force, b y age and sex

The basic 1960 Census of Population civilian labor
force data for New York State, by age and sex,
contained in table 5, were first adjusted to a Current
Population Survey basis and then were further adjusted
from the March-April 1960 Census period to a 1960
annual average basis. (See tables 6 and 7.) These
adjustments were made by applying national relation­
ships.
N onfarm wage and salary jobs, b y industry

A detailed set of figures by industry was essential,
since it is the framework necessary for utilizing the BLS
industry-occupation matrix. Nonfarm job data for New
York State for 1960 from the BLS-State program had
been published for manufacturing in selected 2-digit,
3-digit, and 4-digit detail and for nonmanufacturing in
The resulting estimates for 1960 and 1965 and 1-digit and 2-digit detail. For some nonmanufacturing
projections for 1970 and 1975 will form an integrated industries, particularly in services, greater detail than
set. For each of the four years there is a reconciliation of had been published was necessary. Most of the data was
labor-force estimates by age and sex with the conceptu­ obtained from unpublished estimates of the Office of
Research and Statistics of the New York State Division
ally different estimates of jobs by industry.
of Employment. In the few cases where such figures
were not available, estimates were made by interpolating
Benchmark Data for 1960
between the 1959 and the 1962 data of County Business
Before projections could be made, a framework of Patterns. The resulting number of nonfarm wage and
past data had to be obtained. The benchmark year salary jobs is shown in the second column of table 8,
selected was 1960, since many of the needed basic data which is limited to 2-digit industry detail.
21 Prepared by Abraham J. Berman, Chief Consulting
Statistician of the New York State Department of Labor,
assisted by Sheldon Dorfman, Associate Economist, Division of
Research and Statistics. Their final, detailed statement is
available in separate technical supplement to Manpower Direc­
tions in N ew York State, 1965-75, New York State Department
of Labor, 1968.

18




Total jobs, b y industry

The BLS national matrix includes self-employed and
unpaid family workers, farm employees, and domestic
employees, in addition to nonfarm employment.
Column 3 in table 8 shows New York State estimates for

T a b le 5 .

Age and s e x

C e n s u s P o p u l a t i o n and L a b or F o r c e , New York S t a t e , I 9 6 0

1 R e sid e n t

p o p u la tio n

(In thousands)
R e sid e n t
In stitu ­
armed
tio n a l
forces
p o p u la tio n

M a le , 14 y e a r s
and o v e r -------------------1 4 - 1 9 y e a r s ------------2 0 - 2 4 y e a r s ------------2 5 - 3 4 y e a r s ..................
3 5 - 4 4 y e a r s ------------4 5 - 5 4 y e a r s ------------5 5 - 6 4 y e a r s ------------65 y e a r s and o v e r -

5 ,8 8 2 .2
6 5 3 .4
4 3 3 .7
1 ,0 5 5 .2
1 ,1 2 6 .6
1 ,0 3 6 .1
8 4 2 .8
7 3 4 .5

1 2 1 .5
1 1 .4
8 .7
1 8 .0
1 6 .5
1 7 .1
1 8 .2
3 1 .6

F e m a le , 14 y e a r s
and o v e r ...........................
1 4 - 1 9 y e a r s ------------2 0 - 2 4 y e a r s ------------2 5 - 3 4 y e a r s ------------3 5 - 4 4 y e a r s ------------4 5 - 5 4 y e a r s ------------5 5 - 6 4 y e a r s ------------65 y e a r s and o v e r -

6 , 5 0 6 o5
6 7 7 .4
5 0 0 .1
1 ,1 3 2 .3
1 ,2 3 4 .3
1 ,1 2 4 .3
9 1 3 .3
9 2 4 .7

9 8 .4
5 .8
2 .5

4 0 .1
5 .0
1 4 .0
1 1 .7
7 .3
1 .8

0 .3
-t

6 .6

9 .2

1 1 .8

1 3 .8
4 8 .7

i.o
0 .2

0 .3

0 .2
0 .1
0 .1
0 .1

C iv ilia n
n o n in stitu tio n a l
p o p u la tio n
5 ,7 2 1
637
411
1 ,0 2 6

1 ,1 0 3
1 ,0 1 7
824
703
6 ,4 0 7
671
49 7
1 ,1 2 6

1 ,2 2 5

1 ,1 1 2

899
876

S o u r c e : U . S . B u re a u o f t h e C e n s u s , U .S . C e n s u s o f P o p u l a t i o n :
t a b l e s 107 and 1 1 5 .

these elements and column 1 shows the total jobs figures
that result from adding in these estimates.
Our first step toward making these estimates utilized
the ratio of self-employed and unpaid family workers to
private wage and salary workers, by industry, from table
122 of the 1960 Census of Population. The ratios were
applied to the average 1960 nonfarm wage and salary
worker data and the resulting figures were totaled. Since
the total did not agree with the total that had been
obtained as part of the work force estimates of the
Division of Employment, which used the U.S. Bureau of
Employment Security methods —adjustment of these
figures was necessary. The adjustments were made in
trade and service, large industry segments in which most
self-employed persons are found. Data from the 1958
Census of Business seem to indicate somewhat higher
ratios of self-employed among the workers of these
industries than were indicated by the Census of Popula­
tion ratios, and this fact was utilized in making the
adjustments. The estimates of the Division of Employ­
ment, made as part of their work force series, of the
number of farm and domestic workers, also were added
to obtain the total number of jobs.




C iv ilia n
la b o r
force

C iv ilia n
lab or fo r c e
p a rticip a tio n
ra tes

4 ,5 5 5
203
350
986
1 ,0 7 0
972
723
251

7 9 .6
3 1 .9
8 5 .2
9 6 .1
9 7 .0
9 5 .6
8 7 .7
3 5 .7

2 ,4 0 3
178
413
534
559
347

3 7 .5
2 6 .5
5 2 .7
3 6 .7
4 3 .6
5 0 .3
3 8 .6

110

1 2 .6

262

1 9 6 0 , V o l . I , P a r t 3 4 , New Y o r k ,

The Census of Population concept of government
employment by function or industry is utilized in the
occupation-industry matrix; accordingly, the number of
government workers in schools, hospitals, construction
work, etc., had to be estimated and assigned to their
respective industries. This concept is in contrast to the
concept used in the nonagricultural wage and salarywork force series, in which all work for government
agencies is considered a separate industry division,
classified by employer: Federal, State, and local. The
basic source used to classify by function the State and
local government work done in New York State was the
Census of Governments for 1957 and 1962. Its classifica­
tion proved to be far more satisfactory than that of the
Census of Population, where government workers appear
in industries in which no governmental jobs exist in New
York State. For Federal employment, the basic source
used was the insured employment record of the Division
of Employment, where data are obtainable for individual
Federal agencies classified by industry. Table 8 indicates
the number of government jobs, by industry. Added to
the other elements in the table, these data complete the
estimate of total jobs, by industry, in 1960.
19

T a b le 6 . A d j u s t m e n t o f t h e New York S t a t e C e n s u s C i v i l i a n L abor
F o r c e P a r t i c i p a t i o n R a t e s t o an A nn u a l B a s i s C o m p a r a b le
w i t h t h e U . S . C u r r e n t P o p u l a t i o n S u r v e y (C P S ), 19 6 0

Age and s e x

New York
C ensus
c iv ilia n
la b o r fo r c e
p a r ticip a tio n
rates
(p ercen t) 1/
(1)

R a t i o o f U .S .
p a r ticip a tio n
r a t e s A p r il
CPS -r C e n s u s
(2)

New York
p a r t i c i p a t i o n j R a t i o o f U .S .
p a r ticip a tio n
rates
rates
a d j u s t e d by,
annual a v er ­
U .S . CPSa g e 4 M archC ensus r a t io
A p r il av erage
(p ercen t)
(4)
(3)

A nnual New
York S t a t e
c iv ilia n
la b o r fo r c e
p a r ticip a tio n
r a t e , 1 9 60
(p ercen t)
(5)

M ale
1 4 - 1 9 y e a r s ----------2 0 - 2 4 y e a r s ----------2 5 - 3 4 y e a r s ----------3 5 - 4 4 y e a r s ----------4 5 - 5 4 y e a r s ----------5 5 - 6 4 y e a r s ----------65 y e a r s and
o v e r ----------------------

1 .0 0 8
1 .0 1 7
1 .0 1 7

3 4 .8
8 6 .7
9 7 .2
97 o8
97 o 2
8 9 .2

1 .0 0 3
1 o005

3 9 .1
8 7 .8
97 o 7
9 7 .9
9 7 .5
8 9 .6

35 o7

1 .0 6 7

3 8 .1

.9 9 7

3 8 .0

2 6 .5
52o 7
3 6 .7
43 o 6
5 0 .3
3 8 .6

1 .0 7 4
1 o020
1 .0 3 0
1 .0 5 5
1 .0 5 5

28 o5
5 3 .8
3 7 .1
4 4 .9
5 3 .1
4 0 .7

1 .0 2 0
1 .0 0 0

1 .0 1 4
1 .0 1 9

3 3 .1
5 5 .1
3 7 .8
4 4 .9
5 3 .8
4 1 .5

1 2 .6

1 .0 0 9

1 2 .7

1 .0 1 9

1 2 .9

3 1 .9
8 5 .2
9 6 .1
97 o0
95 o 6
8 7 .7

1 .0 9 2
1 .0 1 8
1 .0 1 1

1 .1 2 3
1 .0 1 3
1 o005
1 .0 0 1

F em a le
1 4 - 1 9 y e a r s ----------2 0 - 2 4 y e a r s ----------2 5 - 3 4 y e a r s ----------3 5 - 4 4 y e a r s ----------4 5 - 5 4 y e a r s ----------5 5 - 6 4 y e a r s ----------65 y e a r s and
o v e r ----------------------

1 .0 1 0

1 .1 6 2

1 .0 2 4

1 / From t a b l e 5 .
2 ! D e r i v e d fr o m t h e G ordon C o m m itte e r e p o r t ( M e a s u r in g E m ploym ent and U n e m p lo y m e n t, p p . 3 8 1 3 8 2 ) by t a k i n g t h e r a t i o o f t h e A p r i l CPS t o C e n s u s .
3 / Column ( 1 ) m u l t i p l i e d by colu m n ( 2 ) .
4 / R a t i o o f a n n u a l a v e r a g e l a b o r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s t o t h e a v e r a g e o f t h e M archA p r i l l a b o r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s , ta k e n from t h e M o n th ly R e p o r t on t h e L a b or F o r c e .
5 / Column ( 3 ) m u l t i p l i e d by colu m n ( 4 ) .

R econciliation betw een job s and labor force

By adding an estimate for unemployment to the total
number of jobs (item 3 above), a figure for total work
force as defined by the Bureau of Employment Security
was obtained. The concept of total work force for a
State or an area differs from the concept of resident
labor force in the following respects:
a. Persons on more than one payroll are counted only
once in the labor force, but are counted in the work force
figures for each job held.
b. Persons who live in one State or area and commute
to work to a different State or area are not counted where
they reside in the labor force statistics, but where they
work in the work force statistics.
c. Persons who have a job during the survey week, but
20




are not at work and not paid, are considered employed in
labor force counts, but not in the work force statistics.

Table 9 indicates the size of the elements of
difference between the civilian labor force count, less
the unemployed, and the total job count in New York
State for 1960. When the comparison first was made, a
relatively small statistical discrepancy was found. It was
eliminated by increasing slightly the labor force partici­
pation rates presented in column 5 of table 6. This
adjustment accounts for the difference between these
rates and those finally used in table 7.
The N ew York S tate industry-occupation m atrix

One of the major determinants of differences in
occupation structure among areas is difference in indus-

T a b le 7 .

New York S t a t e C i v i l i a n P o p u l a t i o n ,and Labor F o r c e , 1960
( I n th o u s a n d s )
New York S t a t e
c i v i l i a n nonin stitu tio n a l
p o p u la t io n
(1 )

Annual New York
S ta te c iv ilia n
la b o r f o r c e p a r ­
tic ip a tio n rates
(2)

New York S t a t e
c iv ilia n
la b o r f o r c e
(3)

T o t a l , 14 y e a r s and o v e r -----------------

1 2 ,1 6 1

5 9 .8

7 ,2 7 3

M ale, 14 y e a r s and o v e r ----------------------------1 4 -1 9 y e a r s ------------------------------------------------2 0 -2 4 y e a r s .................................................................
2 5 -3 4 y e a r s - - ....................- ...................................3 5 - 4 4 y e a r s ------------------------------------------------4 5 - 5 4 y e a r s ------------------------------------------------5 5 - 6 4 y e a r s - ..............................................................
65 y e a r s and o v e r -------------------------------------

5 ,7 3 7
648
415

8 2 .0
3 9 .2

1 ,1 0 5
1 ,0 1 7
825
706

9 7 .9
9 8 .2
9 7 .4
8 9 .7
3 8 .1

4 ,7 0 4
254
365

F e m a le , 14 y e a r s and o v e r ------------------------1 4 -1 9 y e a r s -----------------------------------------------2 0 -2 4 y e a r s .................- ................- .......................
2 5 -3 4 y e a r s ..................................................................
3 5 - 4 4 y e a r s ...............- ....................... ........................
4 5 - 5 4 y e a r s ................. .......... ............................. ........
5 5 - 6 4 y e a r s ................. ..............................................65 y e a r s and o v e r -------------------------------------

6 ,4 2 4
680
500
1 ,1 2 3
1 ,2 2 5
1 ,1 1 3
901
882

4 0 .0
3 3 .8
5 4 .9
3 7 .8
4 5 .0
5 3 .8
4 1 .6
1 2 .9

Age and s e x

1 ,0 2 1

8 8 .0

1 ,0 0 0

1 ,0 8 5
991
740
269

2 ,5 6 9
230
275
425
551
599
375
114

1.
The A p r il 1960 c i v i l i a n p o p u la t io n was moved to J u ly by l i n e a r i n t e r p o l a t i o n betw een th e
A p r il 1960 C ensus P o p u l a t i o n and th e J u ly 1965 p o p u l a t i o n e s t i m a t e s p r e p a r e d by th e New York
S t a t e O f f i c e o f P la n n in g C o o r d i n a t i o n .
2 . B ased on t a b l e 6 column 5 , a d j u s t e d t o e l i m i n a t e th e s t a t i s t i c a l d is c r e p a n c y in t a b l e 9
(S e e t e x t . )
3 . Column ( 1 ) m u l t i p l i e d by column ( 2 ) .

try structure. If industry structure were the only
determinant, application of the national industry occupation matrix to a State or area’s industry structure
would be possible and a reasonably good set of
occupation estimates could be obtained.
Testing this possibility by using data on occupation
by industry in the 1960 Census of Population showed
that, although industry differences do account for a
great deal of the difference in occupation structure,
other factors are important.22 The presence of central
administrative offices, research laboratories, and other
supporting activities of a given industry in one State and
their absence in another will give the two States
different job structures in the same industry. Another
important factor is the state of technological advance at
which different firms in different areas within the same
industry operate. Consequently, an independent matrix
for New York State and its areas was obtained by
industry division and detailed occupation for the benchSee Berman, Abraham J., “Problems of Manpower
Projections in New York State,” Temple University Bulletin,
June 1966, p. 27.




mark year 1960. Constructing it involved the following
steps:
Step 1. Table 10 presents by industry division and
occupation group the New York State employment data
of table 125 of the 1960 Census of Population. Such
data are available for each State and for each major labor
market area in the country.
Step 2. One deficiency in these raw data is that
about 6 percent of employed persons are unclassified as
to industry or occupation or both. Within each industry
division, the “not reported” element had to be allocated
into occupations. Wide variations in the “not reported”
element appeared among the age, sex, color, and area
breakdowns (New York Metropolitan Area vs. Re­
mainder of State). For example, “not reported” among
white males was 4 percent, among nonwhite males, 12
percent. The “not reported” element, therefore, was
prorated separately within each age-sex-color group.
Data in Census of Population table 123 were drawn on
for occupation distributions and table 128 for industry
distributions. Table 11 shows the resulting industry
totals (column 1) and occupation totals (row 1). The
cross tabulation of table 9 was adjusted to the new
21

T a b le 8 .

T o t a l J o b s i n New York S t a t e by C l a s s o f W ork er, 1 9 6 0

Indu stry

(In thousands)
--------------------------------<1 S e l f - e m p l o y e d
N o n a g r ic u lu n p a id f a m i l y
t u r a l w age
w orkers.
T o tal job s
and s a l a r y
a g ricu iu u ra l
e m p lo y m en t JJ
e m p lo y m en t
and d o m e s t i c s

G overn m en t

T o t a l e m p lo y m e n t--------------------------------

7 ,2 6 5 .0

5 ,3 4 4 .2

1 ,0 8 3 .0

8 3 7 .8

M a n u f a c t u r i n g ------------------------------------------------D u r a b le g o o d s m a n u f a c t u r i n g ---------------Lumber arid wood p r o d u c t s -----------------F u r n i t u r e and f i x t u r e s ---------------------S t o n e , c l a y and g l a s s p r o d u c t s ----P r im a r y m e t a l i n d u s t r i e s -----------------F a b r ic a te d m etal p ro d u cts
(in clu d in g ordnance, except
f i r e c o n t r o l e q u i p m e n t ) ---------------M a c h in e r y , e x c e p t e l e c t r i c a l --------E l e c t r i c a l m a c h i n e r y , e q u ip m e n t
and s u p p l i e s --------------------------------------T r a n s p o r t a t i o n e q u ip m e n t -----------------In stru m en ts (in c lu d in g f i r e con ­
t r o l e q u i p m e n t ) -------------------------------M i s c e l l a n e o u s m a n u f a c t u r i n g ----------N o n d u r a b le g o o d s --------------------------------------F ood and k i n d r e d p r o d u c t s ---------------T o b a c c o m a n u f a c t u r e s -------------------------T e x t i l e m i l l p r o d u c t s -----------------------A p p a r e l and o t h e r f i n i s h e d
p r o d u c t s ----------------------------------------------P a p e r and a l l i e d p r o d u c t s ---------------P r i n t i n g , p u b l i s h i n g and a l l i e d
i n d u s t r i e s ------------------------------------------C h e m i c a ls and a l l i e d p r o d u c t s ------P e t r o l e u m r e f i n i n g and r e l a t e d
i n d u s t r i e s ..............................- .........................
R ubber and m i s c e l l a n e o u s
p l a s t i c s p r o d u c t s ---------------------------L e a t h e r and l e a t h e r p r o d u c t s --------A g r i c u l t u r e , f o r e s t r y and f i s h e r i e s - A g r i c u l t u r e -------------------------------------------------F o r e s t r y -------------------------------------------------------F i s h e r i e s -----------------------------------------------------M i n i n g ---------------------------------------------------------------M e ta l m i n i n g ----------------------------------------------O i l and g a s e x t r a c t i o n -------------------------N o n m e t a l l i e m in in g and q u a r r y i n g ----C o n s t r u c t i o n ---------------------------------------------------T r a n s p o r t a t i o n , c o m m u n ic a tio n and
p u b l i c u t i l i t i e s --------------------------------------R a i l r o a d s -----------------------------------------------------A i r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n ----------------------------------L o c a l and i n t e r u r b a n p a s s e n g e r
t r a n s p o r t a t i o n --------------------------------------M otor f r e i g h t t r a n s p o r t a t i o n and
w a r e h o u s i n g ---------------------------------------------

1 ,9 5 1 .2
9 4 8 .8
18 o 8
3 7 .4
5 0 .0
7 7 .5

1 ,8 7 8 .8
9 1 1 .2
1 6 .4
3 5 .5
4 8 .6
7 7 .1

5 7 .0
2 2 .2

1 5 .4
1 5 .4

1 0 5 .4

1 0 0 .0

15 9 .1

3 .0
2 .9

2 .4
--

1 6 5 .7
9 8 .6

0 .5

1 .2

__
1 3 .0

1 1 6 .8
9 3 .4
9 6 7 .6
1 5 6 .7

4 .8
3 .7
3 4 .8
6 .3

2 .8

0 .1

S e e f o o t n o t e a t end o f t a b l e .
22




1 6 2 .0

1 6 6 .9
1 1 2 .1
1 2 1 .6

9 7 .1
1 ,0 0 2 .4
1 6 3 .0
2 .9
6 5 .4

6 3 .3

2 .4
1 .9
1 .4
0 .4

2 .1

3 3 3 .4
7 0 .2

3 1 8 .9
6 9 .4

1 4 .5

1 8 0 .2
9 0 .3

1 7 2 .9
8 9 .2

7 .3

1 2 .9

1 2 .8

0 .1

2 0 .2

------

0 .6

2 0 .8

6 3 .3
1 7 4 .7
1 7 3 .0
0 .5
1 .2

6 1 .4
9 .5
9 .2
0 .3
9 .1
3 .0
1 .4
4 .7

9 .5
3 .1
1 .5
4 .9
3 7 9 .0

2 6 1 .8

5 8 4 .3
6 5 .5
3 9 .6

0 .8

1 .1

1 .9
1 6 3 .5
162. 1
0 .5
0 .9
0 .4
0 .1
0 .1
0 .2

-1 .7
1 .7
----

7 1 .4

4 5 .8

4 8 2 .2
6 5 .3
3 7 .0

2 5 .3

7 6 .8

0 .2
0 .1

2 .5

8 7 .2

4 4 .1

7 .8

3 5 .3

8 6 .8

7 5 .0

1 1 .8

--

T a b le

8.

T otal

Jobs

in

N ew Y o r k
(In

S tate

by

C la s s

of

W orker,

1 9 6 0 --C o n tin u e d

thousands)
S e lf-e m p lo y e d
u n p aid

N o n a g ricu lIndustry

T otal

jo b s

tural
and

wage

w orkers,

sa la ry

em p lo y m e n t

t r a n s p o r t a t i o n ---------------------------------

7 3 .7

1/

em p loy m en t

6 8 .4

0 .2

G overnm ent

a g ricu ltu ra l
and

P i p e l i n e s -------------------------------------------------------------

'

fa m il}'

d om estics

0 .2

W ater

S erv ices

in cid e n ta l

to

0 .3

5 .0

transpor-

t a t i o n ---------------------------------------------------------------

2 3 .8

2 0 .6

3 .2

C o m m u n i c a t i o n ---------------------------------------------------

1 1 6 .0

1 1 5 .7

0 .3

E le ctric,

gas

and

s a n ita ry

ser9 1 .5

5 5 .9

1 .6

3 4 .0

t r a d e -----------------------

1 ,5 4 0 .6

1 ,2 5 1 .1

2 8 6 .8

t r a d e ----------------------------------------------

4 8 4 .2

4 1 9 .3

6 4 .9

2 .7
--

t r a d e -----------------------------------------------------

1 ,0 5 6 .4

8 3 1 .8

2 2 1 .9

2 .7

v i c e s -----------------------------------------------------------------W h olesa le

and

W h olesa le
R e ta il

Lum ber,

re ta il

b u ild in g

m a teria ls,

farm

e q u i p m e n t ---------------------------------------------------

4 1 .7

3 1 .9

9 .8

..

s t o r e s -------------

1 6 6 .5

1 4 9 .4

1 5 .6

1 .5

s t o r e s ---------------------------------------------------

2 0 0 .4

1 4 5 .4

5 5 .0

--

G eneral
Food

m erch an d ise

A u tom otive

and

101 o7

7 8 .5

2 3 .2

..

a c c e s s o r i e s ---------------------

1 1 6 .2

9 9 .0

1 7 .2

--

and

F u rn itu re,

h om efu rn ish in gs

and

e q u i p m e n t --------------------------------------------------E atin g

and

d rin k in g

M is ce lla n e o u s
F in a n ce,

;

g a s o lin e

s t a t i o n s ---------------------------------

se rv ice
A pparel

d e a le r s

p l a c e s -------------

3 7 .7

1 2 .6

__

2 0 2 .1

4 9 .5

1 .2

8 7 .8

3 9 .0

--

esta te--

5 3 1 .5

4 8 3 .2

3 7 .8

1 0 .5

a g e n c i e s ----------------

0 .1

re ta il

in su ra n ce

5 0 .3
2 5 2 .8

and

s t o r e s -----------

real

1 2 6 .8

'

1 3 7 .9

1 3 6 .8

1 .0

com p a n ies--

6 3 .5

5 8 .7

4 .8

I n s u r a n c e -------------------------------------------------------------

1 6 9 .3

1 6 2 .4

6 .4

R eal

e s t a t e --------------------------------------------------------

1 6 0 .8

125 o3

2 5 .6

9 .9

S e r v i c e s --------------------------------------------------------------------

1 ,7 6 3 .6

9 6 8 .5

4 4 0 .8

3 5 4 .3

B an k in g

and

cre d it

B rokers

and

in v e stm e n t

H o te ls

p l a c e s ---------------------

8 1 .7

7 2 .4

9 .2

0 .1

s e r v i c e s -----------------------------------------

1 6 0 .9

1 0 2 .5

5 8 .4

--

1 9 7 .6

1 7 0 .0

2 7 .6

--

3 6 .0

2 6 .2

9 .8

__

2 8 .3

1 5 .8

1 2 .5

--

and

P ersonal

lo d g in g

M is ce lla n e o u s
A u tom ob ile

b u s in e ss

rep a ir

s e r v i c e s ------

se rv ice s

and

g a r a g e s ------------------------------------------------------------M is ce lla n e o u s
M otion

and

M ed ica l
Legal

re p a ir

p ictu re s

m ent

0 .5

and

s e r v i c e s ----------other

re cre a tio n

and

other

am use­

s e r v i c e s - ------

h ea lth

se rv ice s-

s e r v i c e s ------------------------------------------------

E d u ca tio n a l
N on p rofit

se rv ice s

m em bersh ip

and

m u seu m s--

7 2 .3

1 0 .4

2 .1

1 9 3 .4

6 2 .0

1 2 0 .1

5 0 .2

3 0 .2

2 0 .0

3 4 7 .2

1 0 8 .9

1 0 .2

2 2 8 .1

1 2 3 .1

1 1 5 .2

4 .0

3 .9

9 0 .4

6 1 .6

2 8 .8

o rg a n iza -

t i o n s -----------------------------------------------------------------M is ce lla n e o u s

8 4 .8
3 7 5 .5

s e r v i c e s ---------------------------w o r k e r s ---------------------

1 8 7 .9

--

a d m i n i s t r a t i o n ------------------------------------

3 3 0 .6

--

1 8 7 .9
--

3 3 0 .6

s e r v i c e ------------------------------------------------

7 9 .8

--

--

7 9 .8

f e d e r a l ---------------------------------------------------

6 2 .9

--

6 2 .9

S t a t e -----------------------------------------------------------------------

4 1 .4

L o c a l -----------------------------------------------------------------------

1 4 6 .5

P riv a te
P u b lic

P ostal
O ther

1/

h ou seh old

E x clu d in g




--

--

4 1 .4
1 4 6 .5

govern m en t,,

23

marginal totals, omitting the “not reported” group, by a
prorata process.23
The following tabulation presents a comparison for
the “not reported” group, by industry division and by
occupation group. The first column shows the result that
would have been obtained, if the prorating had been
made on the basis of the total distribution omitting the
“not reported” group. The second column presents the
result of prorating the “not reported” group in each
age-sex-color-area cell separately and adding the results.
The resulting distribution, shown in the tabulation
below, reflects the differences in the proportion of “not
reported” in each cell and indicates that higher propor­
tions of lower-skill workers should be used in adjusting
for this group.
Percent D istribution O f “ N ot R e p o rted ” By Industry
And O ccupation

Industry division and
occupation group

“Not reported ” prorated
By age,
Proportion­ color, sex
ately
and area

All industries ...........................................
Agriculture .......................................
M in in g ..................................................
Manufacturing ................................
C onstruction.......................................
Transportation and public
utilities .......................................
Wholesale and retail trade . . . .
Finance, insurance, and real
e s ta te ..............................................
Services and miscellaneous . . . .
Public administration ..................
All o c c u p a tio n s.......................................
Professional, technical and
kindred w ork ers.........................
Managers, officials and
proprietors 1 ................................
Clerical and kindred workers . .
Sales w o r k e r s ....................................
Craftsmen, foremen and kindred
workers .......................................
Operatives .......................................
Service workers, including
private household ..................
Laborers, including farm . . . .
1

1 0 0 .0

1.9
0 .2
30.2
5.2
8.1

19.2

1 0 0 .0

1.5

0 .2

29.0
4.5
7.9
19.4

23.6
5.0

6.9
25.7
4.8

1 0 0 .0

1 0 0 .0

13.3

12.5
8.9
20.7
7.5
11.3
19.9
14.4
4. 8

6 .6

1 0 .6

19.3
7.8
13.2
19.3
12.1

4.5

Includes farmers and farm managers.

Step 3. Table 12 shows the results of step 3, which
was to shift the occupation distribution by industry
division from its Census residence basis (table 12) to a
total jobs basis (table 8).
2 3 For

a short method of iterating a cross tabulation to
marginal totals, see Dening, W. Edwards, Statistical Adjustm ent
o f Data , 1964 edition, New York, Dover Publications, Inc., p.
121 ff.

24




Step 4. Within the table 11 framework of industry
division and occupation group, detailed occupation
estimates by industry division then were made. Table
125 of the 1960 Census of Population gives information
on the industry distribution in New York State of some
individual occupations. The detail needed for most
individual occupations, however, is not given in that
table. Most individual occupations are grouped into an
all-other category within each occupation group. For
these all-other categories, information on New York
totals of individual occupations can be obtained from
table 120 in the Census volume. Information for the
country as a whole, given in Census volume PC 2 (7C),
was utilized to prorate the individual occupations within
the all-other group on an industry division basis. These
estimates were totaled and prorated to agree with the
industry division breakdown of the all-other group for
the State. In this way, a set of detailed occupational
statistics by industry division, using Census data, was
obtained. These data then were adjusted to a total jobs
basis by prorating the breakdown of occupations in each
industry division to the totals by occupation group
obtained in Step 3 and shown in table 12.
The procedure can be illustrated by indicating how
the number of jobs by detailed occupation was derived
for one occupation group—
professional, technical, and
kindred workers; jobs by detailed occupation within the
other occupation groups were derived in a similar
manner. Census table 125 for New York State shows an
industry breakdown for 19 specified professional occu­
pations for males and eight for females. The first step,
then, was to fill in the data for those occupations in
which data for one sex was missing. The national
patterns in Census Report PC 2 (7C) were used. The
following tabulation uses female lawyers as an example.
Estimating The Number o f Female Lawyers by Industry Division
In New York State in 1960
Industry division
Total e m p lo y m e n t..................
Manufacturing ..................
Contract construction . .
Transportation and public
utilities .........................
Wholesale and retail trade
Finance, insurance, and
real e s t a t e .....................
Services and miscellaneous
Public administration . . .
Not rep orted.........................

United States
NewYork
Number Percent State
7,140
39

1 0 0 .0

10 1

0.5
1.4

40
61
383
4,768
1,728

0.9
5.4
66.9
24.3

20

0 .6

-

1,450
7
20

9
13
78
971
352
-

Their national percent distribution by industry division,
applied to the 1,450 employed female lawyers in New

detailed occupation data were prorated to sum to total
professional jobs by industry division, shown in table 12.
For example, in manufacturing, in order to shift
professional employment by detailed occupation from a
Census basis to a total jobs basis, the Census figure for
each occupation was multiplied by 0.981 (the ratio of
the 166,700 jobs shown in table 12 to the 169,900
resident employed shown in table 11). A similar break­
down of jobs by detailed occupation and industry
division was made for each of the other cells.
Step 5. Deficiencies exist in Census information
about occupations, which were obtained from one
member of a household. Consequently, other data were
used where available. The New York study utilized the
State’s own study of technicians, scientists, and engi­
neers, as of 1962,25 and its study of the metal trades, as
of 1957.26 New York State Education Department data
on the number of teachers and on licensees in several
professional occupations, such as physicians were used.
New York State data on the number of apprentices also
Estimating The Total Number Of Librarians In New York State
By Industry Division In 1960
were utilized. Most important of all, occupational data
from a 1960 wage study that covered most nonmanufac­
United States New York
turing industries in the State were used.27
Industry division
Number Percent State
In many cases, the occupational figures from these
sources, when adjusted to a 1960 basis, were different
8,800
1 0 0 .0
Total e m p lo y m e n t..................... 84,332
from those in the 1960 Census. They basically were
9
0.1
Agriculture ............................
80
9
M in in g .......................................
62
0.1
more reliable than the Census since they had been com­
Manufacturing .....................
9
122
0.1
piled primarily from employer reports. Consequently,
258
Contract construction . . . 2,432
2.9
Transportation and public
they were substituted for the Census data, wherever they
44
utilities ............................
404
0.5
applied. In some cases the totals by occupational group
36
0.4
Wholesale and retail trade .
321
Finance, insurance, and
had to be shifted. Increasing the number of workers in
36
0.4
real e s t a t e .........................
360
one occupation because of known outside data meant
Services and miscellanoeus.. 77,466
92.1 8,177
302
Public administration . . . . 2,843
3.4
that the number in other occupations had to be reduced.
242
Not reported.............................
By and large, where such adjustments did not offset each
other, they were made in the “all other” category of the
The other professional occupations were treated in the group. The largest adjustments among occupation group
same way.
totals involved a shift from sales workers to clerical
However, the national occupation-by-industry distri­ workers and laborers in retail trade. Our 1960 retail
bution for “other” professionals differs from New York trade wage study showed a larger proportion of workers
State’s, so that, when all such estimates were added, the in clerical occupations (checker, etc.) and laborers (stock
sums by industry division differed from those previously boy) than did the Census, and showed a smaller propor­
derived for “other” professionals. Therefore, the data tion in sales than did the Census.
had to be prorated using an iterative procedure24 so that
the sum of the detailed occupations by industry division
add to the number of “other” professionals and at the
25 Technical Manpower in N
New York
same time each individual occupation by industry Department of Labor, Division ofew York State,Statistics. State
Research and
division adds to its occupation total as shown in Census
26 M anpower in Selected Metal Crafts in N ew York State,
table 120.
New York State Department of Labor, Division of Research and
After estimates were obtained for each of the Census Statistics, Publication B-107.
professional occupations, by industry division, the
27 Wages and Hours in Industries Covered by the Minimum

York State (this figure is taken from Census table 120)
yields their estimated employment by industry division
in the State. In the same manner employment estimates
were derived for the other professional occupations in
which data for either sex were missing. By using the
above procedure, estimates were made for missing
detailed occupation-sex components, and the resulting
“other” group was made consistent for each sex by
subtracting these estimates. Totals for the “other”
group, by industry division, were made in this manner
for the State and each area.
Since the matrix needed figures for individual occupa­
tions included in the “other” group, these figures were
estimated by utilizing the data from Census volume PC
2 (7C). The following tabulation uses librarians, male
and female, as an example. Their national percent
distribution by industry division was applied to the
8,880 librarians in New York State (Census table 120).

24 Ibid.




Wage Law, N ew York State, 1960-1961, New York State
Department of Labor, Division of Research and Statistics,
Publication B-132.

25

T a b le

9.

W ork F o r c e

and

Labor
(In

Force

R eco n cilia tio n ,

New Y o r k

S ta te

thousands)
P rocedure

A d ju ste d

census

U n em p loy m en t

civ ilia n
rate

la b or

(p ercen t)

1960

\_/

force

7 ,2 7 3

£ / ----------------

5 oO

U n e m p l o y e d -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

363

3 1 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

6 ,9 1 0

n o n a g r i c u l t u r a l s e l f - e m p l o y e d and u n p a id fa m i l y w o r k e r s and d o m e s t i c s 4 /
a g r i c u l t u r e 4 / ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

920

5 _ / --------------------------------------------------

5 ,8 2 7

6 / --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

6 ,1 8 2

D i f f e r e n c e ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

355

R esid en t
Less
Less
Census
BLS

e m p loy ed

n on a g ricu l tu ra l

n o n a g ricu ltu ra l

N et

com m u tation

Dual

jo b

resid en t

wage

and

wage

sa la ry

and

sa la ry

w orkers

w orkers

163

7 7 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

h old ers

le ss

th ose

w ith

a

jo b

but

not

b ein g

p a id

144

8 / ---------------------------------------------

211

D iscre p a n cy

1/

For

2/

From

B ureau

of

d eriv a tion
New Y o r k

E m ploym en t

3/

a.

4/

New Y o r k

Row

E m ploym en t

of

S tate

row

U .S .

Census

U .S .

D epartm ent

7/

D ata

d e riv in g
1 1);

of

SMSA’ s

of

L abor,

can

Com m erce,

con tig u ou s

who

of

B u lletin

fo r

p attern s

colu m n

Labor,

3o

D iv isio n

of

E m p loym en t,

e stim a ted

by

u sin g

the

3.

P o p u la tio n ,

com m u tation

how ever,

com m u tin g
and

for

net

D epartm ent
N o.

of

1 9 3 9 -6 5 ,

7,

of

Labor,

D iv isio n

of

E m p loy m en t,

e stim a ted

by

B ureau

of

m eth od.

6/

A reas

ta b le

m eth od0

D epartm ent

5/
and

see

D epartm ent

S ecu rity

1 m in u s

S ecu rity

1960

S tate

S tates.

ob ta in ed
New Y o r k

C om m uting

no

by

liv e

in

one

of

re sid e n ce

(row s

by

p la ce

of

w ork

ta b le

122.

S ta tistics,

E m ploym en t

and

E arn in g s

for

S tates

w orkers
(row

jo b

fig u res

4 ).

(row

com m ute

P op u la tion
the

C ounty
such

from

d a ta

to

C ensus

were

C ounty

in

are

a va ila b le,

ta b le

132

of

the

1 and

4)

h old ers

are

cou nted

(row

but

not

N a tion a l

5)

d ata

in

suggests

and
m ore

the

th at

in

another

are

cou nted

in

than

once

Census
dual

in

counted
the

the

(R esea rch

Census

for

In

B u lletin
of

the

s m a ll.)

amount

to

civ ilia n

n on a g ricu ltu ra l

S ta te
P eop le

resid en t

5 percent

of

wage
a ll

la b or

e m p lo y m e n t

BLS n o n a g r i c u l t u r a l

n o n a g ricu ltu ra l

jo b s

the

W ork.
S ta te

a p p roxim ation

re la tiv e ly
in

to

New Y o r k

S tate

a good
is

Journey

the

P op u la tion

S tates

are

(6 B ),

from

New Y o r k

d a ta

n on con tigu ou s

to w ork

PC2

taken

5 ).

Dual

and

34,

Labor

from

u sin g

(C om m u ta tion

p la ce

Part

of

S tate

from

w here

d erived

by

8/

S tate

be

for

be

I,

1 37 0 -3 .

S tates,

can

V o l.
B ureau

wage

and

and

sa la ry

job s

and

force
d a ta
sa la ry
w orkers

th is

f a c t o r ( a c t u a l l y 4 .9 p e r c e n t ) was u s e d f o r th e S t a t e .
d u r in g th e week b e ca u s e th ey w ere s i c k , on v a c a t io n o r
r e s i d e n t w a g e a n d s a l a r y w o r k e r s b u t n o t a m o n g t h e BLS

T h o s e w i t h a j o b b u t who d i d g e t p a i d
o n s t r i k e w e r e c o u n t e d among t h e C e n s u s
n o n a g r i c u l t u r a l wage and s a l a r y w o r k e r s .

T h eir

force

used

number
fo r

d e riv e
If

the

row

am ounts

to

S ta te.

A net

about

d eriv ed

percent

of

3 .4

of

the

percent

la b o r

(4 .9

m in u s

n a tio n a lly

and

th is

1 .5 )

m u ltip lied

by

a gricu ltu ra l

e m p lo y m e n t

(row

num ber

row

5 was

was
used

to

8.

BL S n o n a g r i c u l t u r a l

e m p loy ed

1 .5

rate

and

u n p aid

(7 ,2 6 5 ,0 0 0

fa m ily
in

em p lo y m e n t
w orkers

1 96 0 ).

If

(row

and

5)

p lu s

d o m estics

un em p loym en t

Table 13 presents the final detailed occupation-byindustry-division distribution of the number of jobs in
the State in 1960. A similar distribution was prepared
for each area.
E stim a tes f o r 1 9 6 5

Once the benchmark set of data described above was
completed for 1960, a set of estimates for 1965 was
made. The procedure used for the industry-occupation
matrix for 1965 was similar to that utilized for 1970 and
1975, which will be described at a later stage. Nonfarm
26




(row

(row

3)

5)

are

added

is

added

togeth er,

total

w ork

7)

tota l

force

is

p lu s
job s

se lfare

d e te rm in e d .

employment by industry for 1965 was available from
the same sources as the 1960 data.
Total job figures for 1965 were calculated by using
the same method employed in 1960. The ratios for
self-employed and unpaid family workers to wage and
salary workers obtained in 1960 were utilized for 1965,
and the results were adjusted to agree with the total
available from the New York State Division of Employ­
ment’s work force estimate. Federal government workers
for 1965 were distributed by industry, using Division of
Employment data. To distribute State and local govern­
ment employment, data from the Division of Employ-

ment and the Census Bureau’s Governments Division
were utilized.28 Where no data were available, distribu­
tions from the 1962 Census of Governments were used.
The only new element that arose in estimating the
data for 1965 was in the calculation of labor force by
age and sex. For this purpose, a set of population
estimates and projections at 5-year intervals by 5-year
age-sex groups, compiled by the Cornell Aeronautical
Laboratories for the State Office of Planning Coordina­
tion was utilized.29 These population estimates were
adjusted to a noninstitutional civilian population basis
by utilizing the information for 1960 and by assuming
that the changes in these groups from 1960 to 1965
were the same in each age-sex group as those in the
population as a whole. Labor force participation rates
then were estimated, first by utilizing the change that
occurred nationally in each age-sex cohort between 1960
and 1965.30 When these ratios to the population figures
had been applied, the resulting estimate for total civilian
labor force showed an increase of about 3.5 percent
between 1960 and 1965. About 3.1 of the 3.5 percent
represented the result of population changes, a fact
derived by applying the 1960 participation rates to the
1965 population.
In contrast to the 3.5 percent change between 1960
and 1965 in estimated civilian labor force, there was a
change of only 2.9 percent in estimated work force. The
current population counts by age and sex could have
been wrong, or the work force estimates could have
been wrong. However, both possibilities seemed
unlikely, because the work force estimates are in large
part determined by actual measurement for the State
and because the population estimates, except for net
migration, are determined similarly. The discrepancy was
sought in one of the other elements of the estimating
process. Tremendous changes could have taken place in
the net commutation pattern. However, this factor was
discounted. The one remaining element of major signifi­
cance was the assumption that New York’s labor force
participation rates had changed between 1960 and 1965
at the same rate as those nationally. If this assumption
was erroneous a reasonable set of figures with which to
28 See Public Em ploym ent in 1965 and City Em ploym ent
in 1965. Also Distribution o f N ew York State Positions by
County and Agency, 1964, New York State Civil Service

Commission.
29 Demographic Projections for N ew York State Counties,
New York State Executive Department, Office of Planning
Coordination.
30 Cooper, Sophia and Denis Johnston, “Labor Force
Projections for 1970-80,” M onthly Labor Review, February
1965,p .130.




reconcile our 1960 and 1965 data by age, sex, and indus­
try might be obtained by using changes in national
participation rates, modified between 1960 and 1965,
particularly for women. After the data were modified, a
reconciliation for 1965 between the total number of
jobs and the labor force was obtained similar to the one
for 1960, given in table 9.
Projections for 1970 and 1975

L a b o r fo r c e a n d n on farm e m p lo y m e n t p ro je c tio n s

The projections for 1970 and 1975 build on the base
of population projections made for the State Office of
Planning Coordination by the Cornell Aeronautical
Laboratories, which were mentioned earlier. This set of
projections had the advantage of presenting figures for
each county of the State, so that area projections could
be made on the same basis as for the State as a whole.
They were amended to a civilian noninstitutional basis in
a manner similar to that used for 1960.
Changes shown by national projections of labor force
participation rates were now utilized to obtain a first
approximation of the labor force in 1970 and 1975, and
these figures were amended later by a method similar to
that described in connection with the 1965 data to
reconcile the labor force totals with the total job figures.
Unemployment was assumed to average 4 percent for
the State as a whole. In some areas, lower levels of
unemployment appeared reasonable; in other areas,
somewhat higher levels were used.
Several experimental procedures were used to project
nonagricultural employment for 1970 and 1975. One
approach was to use logarithmic regression, another to
use linear regression. Both were applied to the State­
wide employment data, and then both were applied to
the State data as a percent of the United States data.
The results of the four methods were compared and the
decision was made to utilize as the basic regression
model Log Y = a + bt, where Y represents for each
industry the percent that New York’s employment is of
national employment for each year of the period
1947-65, and t = time in years.
The proportions were projected to 1970 and 1975
and, because they were in terms of percent of national
nonagricultural employment, were multiplied by the
BLS national employment projections, on a 4-percentunemployment-level base, to obtain projected employ­
ment in New York State for 1970 and 1975.
For industries where a more detailed breakdown than
2 digits was needed in manufacturing and 1 digit in
27

to
oo




T a b le

Industry

10.

Source:

U .S .

825,021

118,850

2 ,5 5 2
939
16,312
159,494
26,746
32,782
17,801
530,414
3 5,440
2 ,541

1 ,8 8 6 ,3 7 9
508,572
1 ,2 0 2,64 3
409,243
1 ,4 7 4 ,8 2 5
313,773
351,752

Census

o f P opu lation ,

11.

V ol.

C ensus Employment

d iv isio n

A g r i c u l t u r e -----------------------------------M i n i n g ........................................................
( M a n u f a c t u r i n g -------------------------------C o n t r a c t c o n s t r u c t i o n -------------T r a n s p o r t a t i o n an d p u b l i c
u t i l i t i e s -----------------------------------W h o l e s a l e and r e t a i l t r a d e - F i n a n c e , i n s u r a n c e , and
r e a l e s t a t e -------------------------------S e r v i c e s a nd m i s c e l l a n e o u s - P u b l i c a d m i n i s t r a t i o n --------------

1/

by I n d u s t r y D i v i s i o n ,

1960

O peratives

Laborers
3/

Not
R eported

1 ,1 9 7 ,2 4 9

747 ,14 8

277,391

401 ,09 7

4 7,3 32

98
211
2 ,5 4 4

483 ,17 7

818 ,26 2

507
92
1 ,5 4 8

996
2 ,7 1 2
171,737
339,231
9 8,0 71
83,5 76

2,1 2 3
4 ,7 8 1
24,6 91 .
801,517
135,340
126,448

8 ,8 6 7
94,3 26
1 5,936
2 ,8 1 0

2 ,8 2 5
8 6,9 27
8 ,1 3 9
4 ,4 5 8

1 ,499
1 ,7 2 2
1 5,7 35
277,143|
1 34,087!
195,692
206 ,44 0

80,9 83
3 ,9 3 9
326 ,06 0
55,9 06
1 2,1 16
219,499
138 ,38 8 *
243
5 ,6 4 6
1,7 8 3

80,605
2 5,6 52
3 ,6 1 8

C raftsm en

S ervice
workers
2/

S ales

1 ,1 9 5 ,8 5 1

6 3,2 32
8 79
2 9,279
119,961
36,493
226,805
6 7,7 42

11,531
321,894

Group,

C le r ica l

6 54,266

T otal, a ll
i n d u s t r i e s -----------------------

2/
3/
4/

Managers
1/

O ccu p a tion

511 ;
19 5
2 ,3 8 0
2 4,1 58
'1 9 ,2 4 5
168,738
3 8,5 57
419 ,36 9
71,4 18
2 ,5 7 7

57,6 68
54,4 89
4 8,4 18
27,8 47
6 ,5 6 1
1 7,0 07
1 3,9 18

2 9,403
6 ,233
1 4,695
4 ,5 4 4
14,562
4 ,6 3 9
. 324,168

4 ,1 5 1

f a r m e r s and f a r m m a n a g e r s .
p r iv a t e h ou seh old w orkers.
farm l a b o r e r s .

T a b le

Industry

P rofession a l

6 ,5 9 9 ,4 6 2

A g r i c u l t u r e ---------------------------M i n i n g --------------------------------------C o n s t r u c t i o n ........................... M a n u f a c t u r i n g ----------------------T r a n s p o r t a t i o n ...................... T r a d e ----------------------------------------F i n a n c e ................... - .....................
S e r v i c e -----------------------------------P u b l i c a d m i n i s t r a t i o n ----N o t r e p o r t e d -------------------------

In clu des
In clu des
In clu des

E m p lo y m e n t i n New Y o r k S t a t e ,

T otal, a ll
occu pation s

d iv ision

T otal, a ll
i n d u s t r i e s --------------

1/
2/
3/

Census

T otal, a l l
occu pation s

I,

Part

34,

T a b le

125.

i n New Y o r k S t a t e ,

P rofession a l

O ccu p a tion

Managers

Group by I n d u s t r y

C le rica l

S ales

D iv is io n ,

C raftsm en

1960

1/

O peratives

S ervice
W orkers
3/

Lab^yers
1

6 ,5 9 9 ,4 6 2

874,991

6 89 ,81 0

1 ,2 7 9,05 2

513 ,17 2

863 ,75 8

1 ,2 7 6 ,9 5 2

805,032

296,695

123,966

65,2 48
935
127,835
3 0,8 19

1 ,5 6 3
1 ,8 5 1
298,563
16,7 40

524
98
8 6,4 74

535
210

50,2 47
--

'1 ,6 3 3

1 ,0 2 5
2 ,8 8 0
360,699
1 80,350

2 ,2 0 4
5 ,1 2 1
859 ,17 6

337,851

2 ,6 2 0
9 98
169,900
17,1 64

26,1 47

2 6,1 65
2 ,5 4 8

59,7 40
62,450

536,426
1 ,2 7 0 ,7 9 0

2 8,3 37
3 4,8 56

38,6 83
241 ,23 8

143,659
210 ,38 0

4 ,1 8 3
347 ,50 4

103,721
8 8,6 76

1 44,309
135,262

2 0,7 33
182 ,40 0

52,801
3 0,4 74

433,681

1 8,923
564 ,63 7
37,5 56

72,0 40
8 5,8 32
2 7 ,1 80

221 ,87 0
2 36,230
1 48,196

5 9,5 70
1 2,928
258

9 ,4 0 7
; 100,177
1 6,823

3 ,0 2 0
9 3,0 39
8 ,6 7 4

4 1,6 71
4 53,861

7 ,1 8 0
18,631
15,172

12,093
1 ,9 8 8 ,5 5 2

1 ,5 6 5 ,3 3 5
330,768

" N o t r e p o r t e d " w e r e p r o r a t e d by a g e ,
I n c l u d e s f a r m e r s an d f a r m m a n a g e r s .
In c lu d e s p r i v a t e hou seh old w ork ers.
I n c l u d e s farm l a b o r e r s .

sex,

color,

and r e s i d e n c e .

76,909

nonmanufacturing, the trend of New York’s employ­
ment as a percent of United States employment between
1960 and 1965 was extrapolated to 1970 and 1975. The
reason for using 1960 and 1965 to find a trend, rather
than seeking a longer-range trend, was the lack of
comparable data before 1958 for New York State, its
areas, and the United States, at the 3-digit level. In
addition, 1960 was the year in which the standard for a
coverage under the New York State Unemployment
Insurance Law was reduced to one employee or more; so
that, beginning with 1960, insured employment data
could be used without small-firm adjustments. The

resulting percentages were multiplied by the BLS
national projections and prorated to the 2-digit manufac­
turing and 1-digit nonmanufacturing totals previously
projected by the regression line method. The following
tabulation gives an example of this process for two in­
dustry subgroups that together constitute industry group
X. The projections for the two subgroups (line J in the
table) add up to 112,200. This figure is a little more
than the 111 ,400 that the regression-line method yielded
for industry group X. Prorating scales the two subgroup
figures down proportionately, so that their sum just
equals 111,400 (line M).

P rojection O f T o tal Jo b s T o 1970 F o r 3-Digit Su b gro u p s
O f 2-Digit Industry G rou p X

Step

A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
F.
G.
H.
I.
J.
K.
L.
M.

1960 national e stim a te ........................................
I960 State estim ate...............................................
1960 national-State ratio (B /A )........................
1965 national e stim a te ........................................
1965 State estim ate...............................................
1965 national-State ratio (E/D) ....................
Ratio o f 1960 ratio to 1965 ratio (F/C) . . .
1970 national-State ratio (GxE) ....................
1970 national projection ..................................
1970 State projection ( H x l) ..............................
1970 State regression-line p ro je c tio n ..............
Ratio of K to J ......................................................
1970 State projections prorated to K ..............

Area estimates of nonfarm jobs by industry were
made by similar methods. These will be described in a
forthcoming technical bulletin of the Division of Re­
search and Statistics.
The total nonagricultural employment estimate in
each area that resulted from this procedure then was
compared with the independently estimated labor force
figures, and adjustments were made to reconcile the two
sets of projections. These adjustments, in most cases,
were minor and did not affect significantly the overall
estimating framework. When the estimates were com­
pleted, a set of labor force and nonagricultural employ­
ment figures, together with a reconciliation sheet, was
sent to knowledgeable people within the New York
State Departments of Labor and Commerce to check for
possible circumstances that the calculations could not
take account of— example, a new plant known to be
for
moving into an area or an important old plant about to
leave the area, etc. The estimates also were compared,




Su b grou p
B

T o tal =
In dustry
grou p X

3 2 6 ,4 0 0
9 5 ,7 0 0
0 .2 9 3

2 7 ,9 0 0
6 ,1 0 0
0 .2 1 9

3 5 4 ,3 0 0
1 0 1 ,8 0 0
-

3 5 2 ,9 0 0
9 6 ,8 0 0
0 .2 7 4

2 9 ,8 0 0
7 ,4 0 0
0 .2 4 8

3 8 2 ,7 0 0
1 0 4 ,2 0 0
-

0 .9 3 5

1 .132

-

0 .2 5 6
4 0 0 ,0 0 0
1 0 2 ,4 0 0

0.2 8 1
3 5 ,0 0 0
9 ,8 0 0

4 3 5 ,0 0 0
1 1 2 ,2 0 0

Su b grou p
A

_

~

1 0 1 ,7 0 0

-

9 ,7 0 0

_

1 1 1 ,4 0 0
0 .9 9 3
1 1 1 ,4 0 0

wherever possible, with projections made by other
agencies. Again, some slight adjustments in the projec­
tions were made as a result of such local contacts. Since
data for most of 1966 were available by the time the
projections were completed, a cheek was made of
1965-66 trends to determine whether or not the
1965-70 trends were in line; some adjustments resulted
from this appraisal. All the adjustments in the projec­
tions resulted in changing the final 1975 projections by
less than 1 percent overall. Of course, in some industries,
particularly in manufacturing, the amount of adjustment
was somewhat greater.
Jobs by industry

After the nonagricultural employment figures by
detailed industry by area had been prepared, these
figures had to be changed from a wage and salary worker
concept to a total jobs concept. The number of
29

u>
o

Table 12. Total Jobs in New York State, Occupation Group by Industry Division:
Prorated from a Census Resident Employment Basis to a Total Job Basis
(In thousands)
Managers C lerical
Total, a ll
Industry division
Craftsmen Operatives
Sales
occupations Professionals
Total, a ll
industries--------------Agriculture-----------------------Mining--------------------------------Manufacturing--------------------Contract construction--------Transportation and public
u t il i t ie s -----------------------Wholesale and reta il tradeFinance, insurance, and
real esta te--------------------Services and m iscellaneousPublic adm inistration--------




7,265.0
174.7
9.5
1,951.2
379.0
584.3
1,540.6
531.5
1,763.6
330.6

1/ Includes farmers and farm managers.
2/ Includes private household workers.
3/ Includes farm laborers.

960.5
3.7
0.8
166.7
19.3
30.9
42.3
23.2
636.1
37.5

799.5
92.0
0.7
125.4
34.6
42.1
292.5
88.3
96.7
27.2

1,413.0
2.2
1.4
293.0
18.8
156.5
255.0
271.9
266.2
148.0

601.2
0.7
0.1
84.8
1.8
4.6
421.3
73.0
14.6
0.3

921.5
1.4
2.3
353.9
202.2
113.0
107.5
11.5
112.9
16.8

1,317.8
3.1
4.0
843.1
29.3
157.1
164.0
3.7
104.8
8.7

Service
workers
2/

Laborers
3/

912.6
0.8
0.2
25.7
2.9
22.6
221.1
51.1
511.3
76.9

338.9
70.8
58.6
70.1
57.5
36.9
8.8
21.0
15.2

self-employed workers had to be added to each industry
in each area, and government workers had to be
distributed by industry. The breakdown for government
workers, by industry or function, which had been
worked up for 1960 and 1965 was used as a basis for
extrapolating to 1970 and 1975 within the framework
of total government employment projections derived
from the regression equation. Projections for total
self-employed persons and domestic employees were
based on the assumption that their percentage of
nonagricultural employment would change at only half
the annual rate that prevailed during the 1960-65 period,
since both sectors had declined sharply during that
period. The number of self-employed in each industry
was estimated by using 1960 ratios and then prorating
the results to their total estimates. Trends derived from
the 1958 and 1963 Censuses of Business were examined
in order to make adjustments in the trade and service
sectors as to the number of self-employed. Licensing
trends also were consulted, for example, the trend in
physician licenses. Agricultural employment for each
area was derived from United States Department of
Agriculture data, and trends determined from these data
were utilized to project this segment of employment.

mark year 1960 was described earlier. From the BLS, a
detailed industry-by-occupation matrix is available for
the years 1960 and 1975. (Similar to that presented in
appendix G, Vol. IV.) The 1960 national matrix was
applied to the total number of jobs in New York State
for each of the 116 industries and a set of occupation
totals in each of nine industry divisions in each of the
162 occupations was obtained. Ratios were determined
in each occupation-industry-division cell between the
occupation figures obtained as a result of applying the
1960 national matrix and the independently estimated
occupation figures from table 13. For 1975, the national
matrix was applied to the independently projected New
York State figures for the total number of jobs, by
industry, and totals were obtained again on a detailed
occupation and industry division basis. To these totals,
the 1960 ratios were applied in each cell, and projections
for New York State by detailed occupation and industry
division for 1975 comparable to the independently
estimated New York State data for 1960 were obtained.
The following tabulation illustrates the procedure as
applied for accountants:
The mechanical procedure can be modified where
small numbers are involved (agriculture, mining) by
Occupation projections
using absolute differences rather than ratios, e.g., for
The process that was used for obtaining total jobs by accountants, in agriculture, 100-20 + 33 = 113 projected
detailed occupation and industry division for the bench­ accountants in 1975.
I960

1975
State
based on
national
m atrix3
D
68,925

Adjusted
State
projections
(C x D)
E
82,100

5.000
4.615
1.075
1.273

33
114
1,633
11,548

200
500
1,800
14,700

3,897
6,214

1.232
1.030

3,898
6,254

4,800
6,400

6,492
24,601
4,562

1.340
1.089
1.578

5,596
33,988
5,861

7,500
37,000
9,200

State
independent
estim ates1
A

State
based on
national
.
matrix 2
B

Total, all accountants ..............

69,800

Agriculture ...........................
M in in g .....................................
C onstruction...........................
M anufacturing ....................
Transportation and public
utilities ...........................
Trade ........................................
Finance, insurance, and
real e s ta te ........................
Services ..................................
Public adm inistration . . . .

100
300
1,100
14,400

20
65
1,023
11,313

4,800
6,400
8,700
26,800
7,200

Ratio
of
A to B

58,187

Industry division

C

1 From table 13.
2 The BLS industry-occupation m atrix for 1960 applied to total jobs in New York State in each of 116 industries;
e.g., there were 333, 400 jobs in apparel in 1960 in New York State which when m ultiplied by 0.09%-the percent
that accountants are of apparel nationally as shown in the BLS matrix-gives an estim ate of 300 accountants. The
num ber of accountants in each of the 116 industries were then added to obtain the 9 industry division totals shown
in this column.
3 Similar to colum n B using the 1975 BLS m atrix and 1975 New York State total job projections.




31

After the projections were completed for all cells the New York State?1 A check also was made on the
figures were totaled and comparisons made between difference in 1950-60 trends by occupation in the nation
1960 and 1975. In several cases, where occupation data and New York State as shown by 1950 and 1960 Census
were available for a series of years for New York State data, and these relationships also were utilized in
from other sources, independent projections were made amending the results of the matrix calculation.
For 1965 and 1970, occupation projections were
and amendments were made in the projections that
resulted from the mechanical process outlined above. obtained by a method similar to that used for 1975. A
Such data were available from licensing sources for national matrix for these 2 years was necessary. It was
doctors, dentists, and several other professional groups, devised by interpolating the 1960-75 proportions for
and for teachers from the State Education Department. each occupation in each industry.
Independent projections were made for technicians by
vol. I, Supple­
using the methods described in a report of the New York ment31B, “JobTechnical M anpower in N ew York State, New York
Projections in Technical Occupations,”
State Department of Labor on Technical Manpower in State Department of Labor, Division of Research and Statistics.

32




Occupation

Table 13. Total Number of Jobs in New York State by Detailed
Occupation and Industry D ivision, 1960
(In thousands)
—
Total Agriculture Milling Construction Manufac­ Transporta­
tion
turing

Total occupation---------- 7,265.0
P rofessional, technical,
and kindred----------------------930.5
Engineers, technical-------84.8
Engineers, aeronautical1.7
Engineers, chemical------7.3
Engineers, c iv il----------16.0
26.1
Engineers, electrica l —
Engineers, industrial —
5.8
Engineers, mechanical—
22.8
Engineers, m etallurgica l, e t c ...........................
1.5
Engineers, mining---------0.1
Other engineers, technic a l-- ...................................
3.5
Natural s c ie n tis ts ----------17.9
Chemists-----------------------10.2
Agricultural scien tists0.7
B iological sc ie n tis ts —
1.7
G eologists and geop h y sicists..................--0.4
Mathematicians-------------1.8
P h y sicists.............................
2.7
Natural sc ie n tis ts , not
elsewhere cla ssified -0.4
Technical workers and
s p e c ia lists, excluding
124.8
medical and dental 1 / .........
Draftsmen-------------------------21.0
Structural design techni­
cians and related
s p e c ia lis ts......... .................
2.6
Electro and mechanical
engineering technicians41.0
Electronic--------------------10.6
E lectric a l-...........................
8.5
Mechanical...........................8.3
13.6
Electro-mechanical-------u>
u>




See footnote at end of table.

174.7

9.5

379.0

1,951.2

584.3

4.5
0.1
-------

0.9
0.1
-----..
0.1

20.9
8.7
0.7
5.6
0.7
1.7

169.3
45.4
1.3
5.2
1.3
17.0
3.6
14.7
1.1

34.5
6.4
0.1
-1.5
3.5
0.4
0.8

0.1
---

0.1
0.1
---

1.2
10.7
6.9
0.2
0.7
0.1
1.1
1.7

0.1
0.3
0.3
---

. .

-0.1
0.5
0.5
--. .

0.1
-..
----

--

0.1
--. .

0.1
--

. .

----

--

Public
Finance Services adminis­
tration
1,540.6
531.5 1,763.6
330.6
Trade

43.6
5.1
0.4
0.3
1.1
0.5
2.0
0.1
0.7
1.3
1.1
--0.1
0.1
--

23.7
1.0
--0.4
-0.5
0.1
__
0.1
-0.1

_ _

8.0
1.2

58.7
9.6

15.9
1.2

6.2
0.6

0.6
0.1

0.5
23.4
7.7
3.5
6.5
5.7

0.1
8.8
0.4
3.6
0.4
4.4

0.1
2.9
0.1
0.1
0.1
2.6

0.1

592.2
14.1 i
0.2
1.0
4.7 :
2.8
0.8
3.0
0.3
1.3
3.9
1.4
-0.9
0.1
0.4
0.7
0.4

40.9
3.9
0.1
2.2
1.0
0.5
-0.1
0.9
0.4
0.1
0.1
0.3

2.3
0.1

22.7
8.0

10.8
0.3

--

1.3
4.4
1.8
0.7
1.1
0.8

1.4
0.6
0.6
0.1
0.1

--

u>
A

Occupation
Mathematics technicians---Physical science technicians---------- ------------------Industrial engineering
technicians-------------------C ivil engineering and
construction technicians----------------------------Sales and service technicians----------------------------Technical writing and
illu str a tio n technicians----------------------------Safety and sanitation
inspectors and related
s p e c ia lis ts-------------------Product testing and
inspection s p e c ia lis ts -Data processing, systems
analysis and programing
s p e c ia lis ts..........................
Airway tower sp ec ia lists
and flig h t dispatchers-Broadcasting, motion p ic­
ture and recording
studio s p e c ia lis ts-------Radio operators.......................
Medical and other health
workers----------------------------D en tists---------------------------D ietitian s and nutritioni s t s ..........................................
Nurses, professional-------Nurses, student.......................
Optometrists--------------------Osteogaths............- ...................
Pharmacists....... ..................... Physicians and surgeons----




Table 13. Total Number of Jobs in New York State by Detailed
Occupation and Industry D ivision, I960--Continued
________________________ (In thousands)__________________________
Manufac­
Total Agriculture Mining Construction turing Transporta­
tion
0.8
8.7
6.9

0.1

0.6
6.6
5.0

0.1

13.1
2.0

6.0
0.1

0.1
0.8

3.6

0.3
7.0

2.9
2.8
186.4
14.7
3.9
70.2
10.6
1.5
0.8
13.8
38.0

-1.6
----

--

0.1

0.1

0.4
0.5

2.7
0.5

1.5

0.5
0.1

0.2
1.0

0.3
0.1
167.9
14.7
3.8
67.5
10.6
1.1
0.8
1.7
37.4

0.1
0.8
0.9
_

0.2

0.1

2.2

..

5.9
1.4

See footnotes at end of table.

2.9
0.1

0.5

0.1
0.9

3.1
0.1

0.2
0.1

0.7

0.2
0.5

1.3

0.2
0.2

0.2
1.3
1.1

2.2

3.9
8.2

Public
Trade Finance Services adminis­
tration

0.4
0.3

1.1

0.2
0.2
2.6

2.3
1.6
0.1

1.7
__

0.1
_
_
_
--

0.2

0.1
12.9
__

0.4
__

0.1
0.2
0.4
_
12.1
0.1

0.2
_
_
0.1

0.5
0.2

Table 13. Total Number of Jobs in New York State by Detailed
Occupation and Industry D iv isio n , 1960--Continued
(In thousands)
Occupation
Technicians, medical and
dental..................- ...............
V e te rin a ria n s---------------------Chiropractors and therap is t s ........ ........... - ...............
Teachers---------------------------------Teachers, elementary---------Teachers, secondary............Teachers, other except
c o lle g e --------------------------Teachers, c o lle g e --........ —
So cia l s c ie n t is t s ...... ............
Economists--------------------------P hych ologists---------------------S t a t is t ic ia n s and actuarie s ----------------------------------Other s o cia l s c ie n t is t s ----Other p ro fe ssio n a l, te ch n ica l
and kindred------------------------Accountants and a ud itors---Airplane p ilo ts and
n avigato rs-----------------------A rc h ite c ts --------------------------A r t is t s , a th le te s, enterta in e rs ------------------- --------Clergymen----------------------------Designers, except design
draftsmen------------ -----------Edito rs and rep o rte rs--------Foresters and conservat io n is t s - - ...........................
Lawyers and ju d ge s-..............
L ib r a r ia n s --------------------------Personnel and labor re la tions workers------------------Photographers........ .................
So cial and welfare workersP ro fe ssio n a l, te ch n ica l,
kindred, not elsewhere
c la s s if ie d -----------------------

u>

See footnotes at end of table




Total

A gricu ltu re

Mining

24.6
1.2

0.4
1.2

7.1
191.0
94.7
55.6

----

----

--

-----

21.9
18.8
10.4
3.5
2.5

Construction

--

Manufac­
turing

Transporta­
tion

Trade

Finance

0.1
--

0,7

4.0
0.4

0.2

1.0
0.1

0.1

0.2

0.9

0.1

--

0.5
-2.2
1.2
0.1

0.7
0.3
--

1.0
0.6
--

1.6
0.4
--

0.1

---

0.5

0.9

0.4

0.4

----

0.1

Services

P u b lic
adminis­
tratio n

23.2

0.2
--

7.1
188.2
94.5
55.5

1.0
0.1
0.1

19.4
18.8
3.6
0.3
2.4

0.8

1.2

0.6
0.3

0.4
0.1

1.2
0.7

315.2
69.8

2.2
0.1

0.6
0.3

4.0
1.1

49.2
14.4

10.9
4.8

16.1
6.4

18.2
8.7

191.8
26.8

22.2
7.2

3.0
5.1

_
--

_
--

_
0.3

0.3
0.2

2.2

0.1

_
0.6

0.2
3.8

0.2
0.2

54.7
15.8

0.7

1.0

3.4
--

0.2
--

48.1
15.7

1.3
--

0.5

1.4
0.6

__
0.1

1.6
2.3

0.1

0.5
0.1

__
0.7
0.1

2.0
0.1

__
33.1
8.7

0.4
3.2
0.2

0.1

1.8
5.7
12.7

2.1
0.1
7.1

5.6

31.3

0.1

-..
--

6.6
16.9
0.6
40.7
9.5

0.2
---

0.1

3.6
13.2

..
0.1

0.1

..
1.0
0.3

0.1
--

11.8
8.1
19.9
52.7

0.1

1.2

0.1

0.1

2.3

5.0
2.0

9.1

0.8

1.0

1.1
0.3

2.0

0.8

u>

ON

Table 13. Total Number of Jobs in New York State by Detailed
Occupation and. Industry D iv is io n , 1960--Continued
(In thousands)
Occupation

Total

Managers, o f f i c i a l s , and
p ro p rie to rs----- -------------------797.3
4.1
Conductors, ra ilro a d ---------Cre d it men------------ --------------6.0
O ffic e rs , p ilo t s , engineers,
ship---------------------------------4.8
Postmasters and a ssista n t
postmasters---------------------1.7
Purchasing agents--------------13.1
Managers, o f f i c i a l s , pro­
p rie to rs, not elsewhere
c la s s if ie d -----------------------767.6
C le r ic a l and kindred workers- 1,443.0
Stenographers, t y p is t s ,
and se c re ta rie s--------------358.4
S e cre ta rie s---------------------231.4
Stenographers------------------38.7
T y p is ts----------------------------88.3
O ffice machine operators---50.4
B illin g and bookkeeping
machine operators--------17.2
Key punch operators--------12.9
Tabulating machine
operators---------------------11.2
Other o ffic e machine
operators...... ................
9.1
Other c le r ic a l and kindred
workers----------------------------- 1,034.2
Accounting c le r k s -----------46.9
Bookkeepers, h an d ---------79.3
Bank t e lle r s --------------------20.6
C a s h ie r s --.......... - ........... .
58.4 ;
Mail c a r r ie r s ------------------23.7
Postal c le r k s ------------------35.0
Shipping and re ce ivin g
c le r k s .... ..........................
45.8
Telephone operators--------56.0
C le r ic a l and kindred, not
elsewhere c la s s if ie d - - 668.5
See footnote at end of tab le.




A griculture

Mining

85.8
---

1.1
---

0.2

. .

.

34.4
-0.2

_

Manufac­
turing

Transporta­
tion

126.7
1.2

Construction

43.6
4.1
0.1

0.2

4.1

Trade

Finance

293.4

81.7

3.6

0.8

. .

. .

_____

Services

107.9
-0.3

P ub lic
adminis­
tratio n
22.7
---

0.1
1.2

1.7
0.8

80.9
269.2

106.3
269.2

20.2
149.4

47.1
32.7
3.6
10.8
8.1

68.1
38.9
5.7
23.5
13.7

111.8
80.5
11.2
20.1
6.0

26.3
10.4
7.0
8.9
4.0

1.0
1.4

2.6
1.8

6.5
3.3

2.1
1.2

0.2
1.7

3.0

1.1

1.6

2.9

1.0

1.6

0.1

3.1

0.6

2.1

1.0

1.7

0.5

0.1
---

14.4
2.4
2.0
---

199.0
9.6
19.9

134.2
3.2
2.7

226.8
15.6
27.9

151.4
6.4
9.5

119.1
2.2
0.7

1.5

3.1

43.4

187.4
7.5
16.1
20.6
2.4

7 c4

0.6
23.7
35.0

0.1

0.1
0.3

27.1
4.6

1.8
32.1

14.8
4.3

0.2
3.2

1.4
9.9

0.4
1.5

0.3

9.6

136.3

91.3

120.8

137.4

116.8

55.0

_____

_____

_____

_____

--

0.1

0.5

7.9

0.6

2.0

85.6
2.3

1.0
1.4

33.7
21.0

117.4
291.9

34.7
156.6

287.8
282.0

0.9
0.7
-0.2
--

0.8
0.6
0.1
0.1
0.1

6.4
4.5
0.9
1.0
0.2

78.7
53.1
7.7
17.9
14.2

18.3
10.0
2.5
5.8
4.1

0.1
--

0.1
--

4.6
3.5

. .

-. .

_ _

. .

1.4
-0.4
----

0.5

_ _

1.0

_

_____

Table 13. Total Number of Jobs in New York State by Detailed
Occupation and Industry D iv isio n , 1960--Continued
(In thousands)
Occupation
Sales workers------------------------Insurance agents and
brokers....................... ........
Real estate agents and
brokers.............. ..................
Sales workers, not elsewhere c la s s if ie d -------------Craftsmen, foremen, and
kindred workers................... Construction craftsmen------Carpenters........ ..................
Brickmason, stone, t it le
s e tte rs ------------------------Cement and concrete fin is h e rs --------------------------E le c t r ic ia n s ..................... Excavating, grading,
machine operators--------Painters and paperhange rs .....................................
P la s te re rs -----------------------Plumbers and p ip e fitte rs Roofers and s la t e r s ..........
Stru ctu ra l metalworkers-Foremen, not elsewhere
c la s s if ie d -----------------------Metalworking craftsmen------M achinists production
and toolroom and maintenance------------------------Machine tool operators,
C la ss A.... ........... - ...........
Blacksm iths, forge,
hammermen...... ................ -




See footnote at end of table

Total
568.6

Manufac­
turing

Transporta­
tion

0.7

Mining
0.1

Construction

P u b lic
adminis­
tratio n

2.1

82.6

4.6

Trade

Finance

385.4

71.5

21.2

0.4

41.2

A gricu ltu re

0.1

_

41.3
0.1

0.1

19.5

Services

..

19.1

0.2

..

507.8

0.7

0.1

2.0

82.6

4.5

385.4

11.2

20.9

0.4

929.3
224.9
66.3

1.7
0.3
0.2

2.0
0.6
0.1

199.6
157.6
48.8

384.6
30.9
8.2

110.5
9.9
1.9

98.0
6.8
2.6

10.9
2.5
0.5

105.1
13.0
3.3

16.9
3.3
0.7

17.0

1.3

0.1

0.6

0.3

0.1

0.1

1.8
14.3

10.2

4.6

1.0

0.4

3.2

0.8

0.1

0.4

9.3

0.5

0.5

0.1

0.1

__

__

32.0
4.4
22.6
4.5
2.9

1.8
0.2
5.7
0.1
2.9

1.0

1.2

1.8

1 c2
0.1
--

0.9
0.1
0.3

4.4
0.1
1.8
--

1.3

---

0.4
0.1

10.5
4.2

76.0
122.5

13.1
2.5

13.4
1.0

0.9
--

5.5
2.3

2.7
0.7

0.1

0.5

33.5

1.4

0.5

0.8

0.4

29.4

0.1

1.2

0.2

19.4
1.8
34.6
11.0
42.6
4.8
33.9
4.7
5.8
123.0
133.3

-0.5
--

37.2
29.6
1.9

--

--

0 .!

0.5

0.1
--

--

0.2

0.2

00

Table 13. Total Number of Jobs in New York State by Detailed
Occupation and Industry D iv is io n , 1960--Continued
(In thousands)
Occupation
Boilermakers-------------------Heat tre a te rs, annealers,
e t c .------------------------------M illw rig h ts---------------------Molders, metal (excluding
coremakers)......................
Patternmakers metal and
wood-----------------------------R o lle rs and r o ll hands---Tinsm iths..................- .........
Toolmakers and diemakersE le ctro p la te rs ----------------Assemblers, metalwork,
Cla ss A-------------------------In sp ecto rs, metalwork,
C la ss A..............- .............
Selected p rin tin g trades
craftsmen------------------------Compositors and types e tte rs ------------------------Electro typers and
stereotypers----------------Engravers, except photoengravers---------------------Photoengravers and lith o graphers-----------------------Pressmen and plate
p rin te rs ...... .....................
Selected s k ille d occupa­
tio n s, transportation,
p u b lic u t i l i t i e s ................
Linemen, servicemen,
telephone, telegraph
and power---------------------Locomotive engineers------Locomotive firemen----------




A griculture

Total

Mining

Construction

Manufac­
turing

Transporta­
tion

Trade

Finance

Services

..

1.6

0.3

0.6

0.3

..

..

0.4

..
..

1.4
4.8

--

--

0.4

1.4
4.3

0.1

..
--

..
--

..
--

3.4

_

_

_

3.4

_

_

_

_

-----

-----

..
---

0.2

2.9

3.4
2.2
7.3
14.9
1.0

0.3
0.3

0.1

3.6
2.2
11.3
15.4
1.0

,

0.3
0.1
--

0.4
0.1

44.0

0.2

0.6

0.4

1.5

0.3

25.5

0.1

0.4

0.3

1.0

0.1

1.1

_

_

_

__

_

1.7

__

0.1

_

0.1

0.1

12.4

12.4

7.5

7.5
0.1

47.1
27.4
1.1

__

2.0

_

_

4.5

_

_

_

4.4

_

_

_

0.1

12.1

..

..

0.1

11.3

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.3

0.1

1.1

0.8

28.7

0.1

0.2

1.1
---

0.7
0.1

22.4
3.9
2.4

0.1
--

0.2
--

30.9
24.5
4.0
2.4

--

--

---

-i

See footnote at end of table.

P u b lic
adminis­
tratio n

Table 13. Total Number of Jobs in New York State by Detailed
Occupation and Industry D iv is io n , 1960--Continued
(In thousands)
Occupation

Total

Mechanics and repairmen----226.5
Airplane mechanics and
repairmen---------------------11.2
Motor ve h icle mechanics-58.3
O ffice machine mechanics4.3
Radio and te le v isio n
mechanics---------------------11.3
Railroad and car shop
mechanics---------------------3.5
Other mechanics and
repairmen---------------------137.9
Other craftsmen and kindred
143.6
workers-------- ------------------Bakers.... ...................... .......
18.8
Cabinetmakers------------------6.9
Cranemen, derrickmen,
8.4
hoistmen----------------------G la z ie rs --------------------------1.8
Jewelers and watchmakers6.9
Loom f ix e r s ---------------------0.2
M ille r s - - ..............- .............
0.5
O ptician s, lens grin d ers,
e t c . ...................................
4.4
Stationary engineers-------•
28.3
In sp ecto rs, log and
lumber--------------------------0.3
In sp ecto rs, other-----------9.8
6.4
Upholsterers.......................
Craftsmen and kindred
workers, not elsewhere
c la s s if ie d -------------------50.9
Operatives and kindred
workers..................................... 1,285.8
Select sem iskilled occupa­
tio n s, transportation,
p u b lic u t i l i t i e s -------------272.4
See footnote at end of table.

u>
VO




A gricu ltu re

Construction

Mining

Manufac­
turing

Transporta­
tion

Trade

Finance
6.0

0.8

0.5

15.0

56.8

38.5

46.2

-0.3
--

---

0.7

3.7
3.6
0.6

6.6
7.2

0.1

0.7

0.6

Services

P u b lic
adminis­
tratio n

54.7

8.0

0.2
23.2
2.2

0.3
21.8
1.4

0.4
1.5
0.1

3.1

6.7

0.1

3.5
0.5

0.5

14.2

48.2

20.6

17.5

6.0

24.5

5.9

0.1

0.4

11.1

53.6
12.3
4.4

17.6

30.0
5.3
0.8

1.1

28.0
1.1
0.9

1.7
0.1
0.1

4.9
0.4
0.9
0.2
0.5

1.0
----

0.5
0.8
3.3

----

2.6

0.1

1.1

0.6
6.3

1.2

0.6
-----

0.2

0.1

--

1.7
0.6
--

0.2

0 o2

1.7
12.5

-5.3

2.1
1.5

1.9

0.3
1.5
2.7

5.2
0.1

-0.5
1.0

6.1

11.3

5.9

14.2

30.4

810.7

153.7

170.2

14.0

50.1

64.9

--

0.1
3.3

3.8

1.2

0.3

1

124.6
i___________ ;'

---

0.1

-0.7
2.6
13.2

0.1

3.9

101.7

8.1

1.1

12.4

3.8

o
Table 13. Total Number of Jobs in New York State by Detailed
Occupation and Industry D iv is io n , 1960--Continued

Occupation
D riv e rs, bus, tru ck,
tra c to r-------------------------D e live ry , routemen, cab
d riv e rs -------------------------Brakemen and switchmen
ra ilro a d -------------- ---------Power sta tio n operators-S a ilo rs and deck hands---Apprentices-------------------------A sbesto s-in sulatio n
workers.................................
Sem iskilled metal workers-Furnacemen, sm elters,
pourers-------------------------Heaters, metal----------------Welders and flame cutte rs ------------------------------E le ctro p la te r h elp e rs----Machine tool operators,
metalworkers, Cla ss B -Assemblers, metalworking,
Class B------------ ------------In sp ecto rs, metalworking,
Cla ss B -...........................
Sem iskilled occupations,
te x tile s -a p p a re l-------------K n itte rs, loopers, and
toppers------------------------Spinners, t e x t ile -----------Weavers, t e x t ile -------------Sewers and s tit c h e r s ,
manufacturing--------------Other operatives and
kindred workers--------------Attendants, automobile
service and parking----B la ste rs and powdermen—




See footnote at end of table

_______________________ (In thousands)_________________________
Manufac­ Transporta­
A griculture Mining Construction
Total
tion
turing

161.6

0.9

90.9

0.3

9.6
2.4
7.9
16.7

----

----

8 c9

1.3
112.0

..
--

0.1

0.8
2.1

3.4
0.3

_

__

22.2
1.7

--

0.1
--

22.5

..

Trade

F inance

Services

P u b lic
adminis­
tra tio n

13.7

27.8

69.8

41.1

0.4

4.4

3.2

0*3

0.3

21.6

35.6

23.8

0.7 ,

8.0

0.6

0.3
0.4
5.3

9.3
2.0
7.9
0.3

0.9

----

1.2

0.1

0.4
106.8

0.6

0.1
0.5

1.3

0.6

0.6

0.5

1.3

0.2

--

3.4
0.3
2.1

17.4
1.7
22.5

45.1

45.1

16.8

16.4

109.0

109.0

3.8
0.7
1.7

_
---

3.8
0.7
1.7

102.8

..

102.8

774.4

2.1

3.4

20.6
0.2

““

0.2

0.4

4.6

539.1

28.2

103.8

0.1
—

0.2

19.1

2.8

86.8
1.2

3.6

T a b le

13.
T o t a l N u m b er o f J o b s
O c c u p a t io n and I n d u s t r y

i n New Y o r k S t a t e b y D e t a i l e d
D i v is i o n , 1 9 6 0 --C on tin u ed

j

O ccu p a tio n

T otal

A gricu ltu re

M in in g

C on stru ction

M an u fac­
tu rin g

T ransporta­
tio n

P u b lic
Trade

F in a n ce

S ervices

ad m in is­
tra tion

Laundry

and

dry

clea n in g

o p e r a t i v e s ----------------------------M eat c u t t e r s , e x c e p t
meat
M ine

p a c k i n g - ....................... -

o p e ra tiv e s,

not

else w h e re

3 2.5

0 .1

0 .4

4 4 .6
__

__

__

0 .7

4 3 .9

3 0 .7

0 .2

1 .1

la b o re rs,
cla ssi­

f i e d - ................................................
O p era tiv es

and

w orkers,

not

2 .7

2 .7

k in d red
elsew h ere

c l a s s i f i e d ----------------------------S ervice

w o r k e r s -------------------------------

P riv a te

F irem en ,

and
W aiters,

5 3 .9

2 .8

4 0 .6

3 .4

2 0 .2

2 1 5 .5

6 1 .9

5 3 5 .1

8 0 .3

0 .1

1 .2

8 .1

4 .5

1 .9

6 .2

0 .3

0 .1

1 .1

7 .5

3 .2

1 .5

5 .7

8 .3

1 0 .4

0 .1

0 .3

1 .2

0 .4

0 .5

0 .6

4 3 .6

0 .6

2 .0

2 .8

1 5 6 .4

1 .7

6 3 .8
6 .7

1 .3
--

2 5 .9

0 .5

--

1 7 5 .7
8 .9

7 1 .8

protec-

and

1 8.2

__

1 7 .8

door­

b rid g e
3 8 .0

0 .2

0 .1

d e te ctiv e s,

other

ment

2 7 .3

2 4 .8

0 .2

t e n d e r s -----------------------------------P olicem en ,

5 38 .6

3 .0

175.7

watchm en,

keepers,

4 .6

1 0 2 .9

t i o n ...................................................
Guards,

0 .5
0 .2

w orkers-

serv ice
fire

2 .1
0 .8

w ork ers--

h ou seh old

P ro te ctiv e

673 .8
9 4 1 .8

law

en force-

o f f i c i a l s ------------------cooks

and

4 6 .7

b arten d -

e r s ..................- ......................................

2 2 9 .0

0 .4

B a r t e n d e r s ............... - .....................

29.2

--

--

6 4.9

0 .4

..

0 .3

0 .7

1 .5

0 .2

2 1.8

0 .6

1 3 .7

0 .4

--

--

0 .1

0 .7
0 .6

0 .2

9 7.3

1 .1

7 7 .0

0 .6

1 7 .5

0 .4

w o r k e r s ------------

4 34 .2

0 .2

0 .1

1 .2

1 4 .7

1 2.9

5 7 .2

5 4 .0

2 8 6 .7

7 .2

A i r l i n e s t e w a r d s and
s t e w a r d e s s e s ------------------------

2 .7

6 9 .1

0 .3
1 .2
1 .6

C ooks,

except
and

O ther

and

s erv ice

A tten dan ts,
other

w a itresses—

h osp ita l

See




and

footn ote

0 .5

3 7 .6

6 9.8

c l e a n e r s -----

3 3 .8

s e x t o n s ----------

5 4.5

at

end

2 .7

and

i n s t i t u t i o n s ............

Charwom en a n d
J a n itors

3 5 .1

fou n ta in

w o r k e r s ..........................................
W aiters

2 2 .5

p riv a te

h o u s e h o l d ------------------------------C ounter

--

of

ta b le

0 .2
--

0 .1
--

0 .2

4 .2

0 .5

3 .5

0 .1
1 .3
1 .6

5 .1

4 .5

1 7 .3

2 .5

2 7 .5

1 7 .3

K)

T a b le

13.

T otal

Number o f

O ccu p a tion

and

Jobs

Industry
(In

O ccu p a tio n

T otal

A g ricu ltu re

in

New Y o r k

D iv is io n ,

S tate

1960 - -

by

D e ta ile d

C o n tin u ed

thousands)

M ining

M an u fac­
tu rin g

C on stru ction

P u b lic

T ransporta­
tio n

F in an ce

Trade

S ervices

a d m in is­
tra tion

P ra ctica l
S erv ice

n u r s e s --------------------

w orkers,

elsew h ere
Laborers,

c l a s s i f i e d -----

3 6 8 .7

1/

The B u r e a u

n ica l

occu p a tion s

of

the

Labor

based

n a tio n a l-m a trix

D epartm ent




of

of

Labor,

1 9 .0

on

0 .1
7 5 .6

S ta tistics

in d u stry -occu p a tion

a

te ch n ic a l

based

D iv isio n

stu dy
on
of

of

0 .5

th e m ethod
R esearch

manpower

d e scrib e d ,
and

m a trix
in

7 .3

4 9.5

6 0 .6

6 0 .6

5 2 .5

con ta in s

New Y o r k

T ech n ica l

S ta tistics.

6 .8

6 7 .6

254 .2

f a r m -----------------

except

_ _

0 .1

1 9.2

0 .1

not

4

S tate.

M anpower

in

te ch n ica l

occu p a tion s

T ech n ica l
New Y o r k

w hereas

occu p ation s

S tate,

V o l.

I,

w ill

2 2 .0

1 6 4 .0

4 .0

,

8 .7

3 1 .2

1 1 .9

th is

ta b le

be p r o je c t e d

S u p p lem en t

B,

in

shows

18

tech­

in d e p en d en tly
New Y o r k

S tate

R eplacem ent and Job M obility

After expected growth or decline in the number of
jobs by occupation has been found, the number of deaths
and retirements, estimated from working-life tables
computed by BLS for the Nation on the basis of 1960
patterns, are added. (See appendix A.) The patterns were
applied to Census occupation distributions, by age and
sex, for the State and its areas. The resulting rates were
applied to an average of the number in the occupation in
1960 at the beginning and in 1975 at the end of the
period and, thus, a reasonable approximation can be
made of the number of job vacancies that can be
expected as a result of deaths and retirements from the
work force during 1960-75.32
To complete the picture, an estimate should be made
of the number of jobs that will be created in each
occupation by job shifts as people move up and down
the occupational ladder. This area of job mobility is a
most important one in terms of job replacement needs,
particularly at lower occupation levels, and a great deal
of research is needed to determine its extent. The
present state of information available on this subject
may result in crude estimates of this factor, possibly
limited to occupational groups only.
Conclusions

The problem of future manpower projections is like a
jig-saw puzzle in which many important pieces are
missing, particularly when attempts to make such
projections for a State and its areas are made. However,
a great many pieces can be fitted together and, with
better data and techniques, in the future, some of the
missing pieces possibly will be found. Although previous
national, State, and New York City projections may
have been off the mark in absolute dimension, they did
point out fairly well the direction of change in the
various occupational fields and they have illuminated the
problems in the manpower field during the 1960’s.
A future publication of the Division of Research and
Statistics will present the method of the projection
process used for New York State in greater detail.
O ther Studies

Many other analytical manpower studies33 have been
undertaken recently to develop methods and project
manpower characteristics at subnational levels. Several
of these studies are discussed briefly below.
32 Ibid, p. 14 ff.




A major work in the field of regional employment
analysis has been published in eight (regional) volumes
by the U.S. Department of Commerce34. The informa­
tion presented in these volumes is designed to provide
those concerned with the economy of an area, State and
county, with a factual basis for comparing its past
performance with that of other areas. The data used are
taken from the Censuses of Population for 1940, 1950,
and 1960. The technique used by the Commerce
Department is built on the assumption that two basic
facts about a region’s growth situation are necessary: the
growth rate of the industrial m ix (distribution of
industries) and, the size and growth of the regional share
in this industrial distribution.
The rate of growth of a particular national industry is
characterized as rapid if it exceeds and slow if it falls
short of the growth rate of all national industries
combined over the same period. The rate of growth of
an industry within a particular region is characterized as
rapid if it exceeds and slow if it falls short of the growth
rate of that industry nationally. Since both the indus­
trial-mix and the regional-share factors are at work
simultaneously, they may be either mutually reenforcing
or mutually offsetting. In some geographic areas both
factors will be positive; in others both will be negative.
In still other areas one factor will be positive and the
other negative35.
The Battelle Memorial Institute has completed a
study36 for the State of Michigan and the Detroit
SMSA. The study develops and uses a complex proce­
dure of integrated matrices to project the characteristics
33 Analytical manpower studies are based primarily on the
analysis of historical data available from ongoing data collection
systems. These studies may be contrasted with survey techniques
which result in projections based primarily upon employer
intentions.

34 Growth Patterns in Em ploym ent by County 1940-50 and
1950-60, U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Business

Economics, 1965, (8 vol.: New England $.45, Mideast $.65,
Great Lakes $1.50, Plains $1.75, Southeast $2.75, Southwest
$1.50, Rocky Mountain $.75, and Far West $.60.), Super­
intendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office,
Washington, D.C., 20402.
35 Although techniques for projecting industry employment
are not included in these reports, considerable insight into the
dynamics of regional growth can be gained from comparing the
structure of growth in regions.
36 Michigan Manpower Study, prepared for the State of
Michigan by the Battelle Memorial Institute, Columbus, Ohio,
November 1966.

43

of the labor force (industry of employment, occupation
of employment, and educational attainment) in 1970,
1975, and 1980. Essentially, the approach involved a
reconciliation of the supply of and demand for labor,
and used formal educational attainment as the equating
variable. The model developed primarily involved the
following steps:
(1) A projection of future demand for employees by
occupation and industry and by educational attain­
ment. (2) A projection of the future level of educational
attainment of the population, by age and sex, and
derivations from this projection of the future levels of
educational attainment of the labor force37. (3) A recon­
ciliation of the projected demand for and the supply of
labor, in terms of educational attainment. The result was
a profile of future employment by industry, occupation,
and educational attainment.

Industry employment levels were projected mainly by
a detailed analysis of key manufacturing industries and
an examination of the relationship between the Michigan
and U.S. economy, especially as the national economy
was projected to 1975. Other techniques that were used
included econometric analysis of historical trends, pro­
jections of employment levels in key industries based
upon surveys, extrapolation of historical trends, and
similar techniques. Occupational requirements were pro­
jected by obtaining a special tabulation of occupational
employment from the 1960 Census of Population for
Michigan and Detroit, and projecting it on the basis of
detailed occupational trends at the national level and the
trends represented by the 11 major occupational groups.
These projected trends were modified in anticipation of
technological changes and changes in the organization of
individual industries over the projection period.
An econometric approach to making projections for
small area economies was developed by the Bureau of
Business and Economic Research, Georgia State College,
Atlanta, Georgia38. The purpose of this study was to
develop a model for estimating future rates of migration,
future levels of population, income, aggregate employ­
ment, and broad industry employment for counties or
other small geographic areas. Because the time series
data available for counties and other small areas was
limited, use was made of cross-sectional data from many
counties at two points in time. Specifically, the two
37 Population projections were available from a separate

source.
38 A Projections M odel for Small Area Economies, Roger L.
Burford, Georgia State College, School of Business Administra­
tion, Bureau of Business and Economic Research, Atlanta, Ga.,
June 1966.

44




points were consecutive decennial census dates and the
areas were 680 counties in the South. The model
contains fourteen equations and was designed to reflect
the dependence of population, employment, and other
such variables in a small area on each other, upon
income, the proximity of the area in question to a major
city, and other relevant variables. The equations were
solved simultaneously and the model provided projec­
tions for ten-year intervals corresponding to decennial
census dates.
Economic base studies have been undertaken for a
number of counties and cities in recent years. These
studies usually divide the local economy into two
segments: (1) Firms and individuals serving markets
outside the community, export industries; and (2) Firms
and individuals serving markets within the community,
derivative industries. Export industries are considered
the regulators of the level of economic activity and
employment in an area. For example, when a local
exporting coal mine closes, the impact is reflected in
fewer sales of the local merchants to the jobless miners
who have less to spend. The example illustrates how
derivative activity is affected by changes in basic
activity. As employment serving the export market rises
or falls, employment serving the local market exhibits a
positively correlated movement. Because of this “regula­
tor” effect of export activity, an economic base study
identifies the basic sources of employment and income,
and provides a basis for understanding the source and
level of all employment and income in a community.
The term “multiplier” frequently is used in base
studies and refers to the impact that a change in the
basic economic activity has on the aggregate level of
activity within an economic unit. In the example above,
basic dollars flowing into the area from sales of coal are
multiplied into even greater local income through the
process of spending and re-spending the basic dollars. As
basic employment fluctuates, so does total employment
change by some multiple, of the change in basic
employment, the employment multiplier. likewise, as
basic income fluctuates, so does total income change by
some multiple, of the change in basic income, the
income multiplier.
The purpose of one such economic base study39 was
to provide guidance for the general economic develop­
ment of a small county in West Virginia. From the
39
An Economic Profile o f Tucker County, W. V., James H.
Land, West Virginia University, College of Commerce, Bureau of
Business Research, Economic Development Series No. 10,
January 1967.

economic base analysis for 1960 came an estimate of the
employment multiplier— The multiplier suggested
1.75.
that for every 100 jobs in basic economic activity there
were 75 jobs in derivative or “service” activity. From the
theory underlying the multiplier analysis, the assump­
tion is that for every additional 100 jobs in basic activity
created in the area, 75 additional “service” jobs will
develop.
A step-by-step approach to projecting long-run indus­
try and occupational requirements in a region was the
focus of another study40. Methods of determining
whether a local industry’s employment is responsive
mainly to local, State, or national demand are discussed,
and several techniques for projecting industry employ­
ment corresponding to these influences are developed.
Simple techniques for projecting occupational employ­
ment—
primarily based on the relationship between local
and national trends— included. The importance of
are
being familiar with current and expected changes in the
environment of local industries so that judgment can be
used to modify historical trends is emphasized in the
report. Although the study was undertaken primarily to
develop techniques adaptable to the data limitations of a
small area, a case study for Silver Bow, Montana is
presented in a separate volume.
The Bureau of Economic Research of The University
of Colorado completed a study41 for the Department of
Labor which explores techniques for projecting occupa­
tional requirements in an SMSA with consideration for
data limitations. Six different approaches were exam­
ined— “naive” and four “sophisticated”— the
two
and
implications of each were evaluated. One “best”
approach was selected and developed comprehensively
for the Denver SMSA. Projections were made for 20
occupations in 10 industries.
In projecting employment, a series of industryoccupational matrices were constructed corresponding
to decennial census data. Employment-output functions
40 A Manual for the D evelopm ent o f Estimates o f Future
Manpower Requirements for Training Purposes, prepared by the

Bureau of Economic and Business Research, Temple University,
Philadelphia, Pa., for the Office of Manpower Policy, Evaluation
and Research, U.S. Department of Labor, March 1966. In
addition, see Projective Models o f Em ploym ent by Industry and
by Occupation for Small Areas: A Case Study, also prepared by
Temple University, March 1966.
41 M ethodology for Projection o f Occupational Trends in
the Denver Standard M etropolitan Statistical Area, prepared for
the Office of Manpower Policy, Evaluation, and Research, U.S.
Department of Labor, by the Bureau of Economic Research,
University of Colorado, Boulder, Colo., March 1966.




were developed for each industry. Output-time relations
also were developed and used to make industry-output
predictions. Judgments with respect to probable growth
patterns of each industry were incorporated at this stage.
Finally, the three phases were integrated into a complete
model; output projections were related to production
functions (output-employment relationships) to project
future levels of industry employment which then were
coupled with industry-occupational matrices to obtain
projected occupational employment levels.
In a study42 for the Eastern Massachusetts region
estimates of gross product by industry, employment by
industry, wages and salaries by industry, and personal
income and consumer expenditures were made for
5-year intervals from 1970 to 2000. The purpose of this
study was to analyze past trends in development, to
anticipate the direction of future development, and to
identify specific means and programs for assisting this
development.
Industry employment estimates were derived by first
projecting the region’s constant dollar gross product by
industry and then dividing the gross product by the
projected value of gross product per worker in each
industry. Projections of gross product for both national
and local market industry groups were made by using
regression techniques and least squares trend extentions
of regional shares of markets. For example, gross
product in 41 industries serving national markets were
made by regressing regional industry gross product
against a “demand” variable composed of related
national GNP components and a “share” variable made
up of the ratio proportion of regional to total national
industry gross product. Theoretically, the demand vari­
able accounted for growth in the industry, and the share
variable accounted for the competitive position of the
region in the Nation. In general, the assumption was that
past trends in the region’s output per worker would
continue over the projection period.
A variety of techniques were used to project popula­
tion, labor force, and employment by industry and
occupational group to 1975 in a study of potential
demand and supply of manpower for the State of
Indiana43. Two sets of employment projections were
made. They corresponded to different assumptions of
42 Economic Base and Population Study for Eastern
Massachusetts: Vol. I, Historical Analysis; Vol. II, Prospects for
Economic Growth, Commonwealth of Massachusetts, Metro­

politan Area Planning Council, 1967.
43 Indiana Manpower Trends to 1975, Indiana Employment
Security Division, Research and Statistics, January 1967.

45

growth in GNP at the national level. Multiple regression
techniques were used for projecting employment in
several industries, which included construction and
durable goods manufacturing, as were simple regressions,
least squares extensions of historical employment series,
and judgmental approaches in other industries. National
trends in GNP, and output and output-per-worker by
industry were important in determining employment by
industry in the State.
Employment by occupational group was projected on
the basis of changes in employment by industry between
1965 and 1975 and expected changes in the proportion
of occupations in each industry group. Occupational
proportions were projected on the basis of assumptions
about technological and social change which resulted in
an increasing proportion of professional, scientific and
technical people and a decreasing proportion of laborers.
The National Center for Education Statistics of the
Office of Education has developed a research paper44 on
techniques of projecting vocational education require­
ments at the State and area level. The paper reports on
the development and test of a system to make annual
projections of employment in occupations classified by
vocational education programs (Occupation Education
Requirements Analysis System or OERA). The output

of the system is the projected employment for positions
in which a particular vocational preparation would be
useful. The purpose of the model is to provide guidance
for program planning in vocational education.
The system is a three-step process. First, employment
projections by industry were made.45 Second, informa­
tion on the proportion of employment in each industry
that requires a specific type of vocational preparation
was developed. Finally, the result was obtained by
multiplying projected employment by industry by the
vocational education proportions and summarizing by
type of education.
The model is applied to a number of regions and the
United States. The model’s sensitivity in regard to
industry detail and variations in assumptions of eco­
nomic growth are evaluated. Research will continue on
the model to incorporate variable education coefficients
which reflect the changing occupational requirements by
industry. In addition, the 18,000 non-collegiate titles in
the latest Dictionary of Occupational Titles46 have been
linked to between 200 and 300 instructional courses in
the seven vocational education programs. The incorpora­
tion of this detail into a comprehensive model applicable
at the local level is a main objective of the current
research.

44
Occupation Education Requirements Analysis, U.S. 45 In the research paper, projections made by the National
Department of Health, Education and Welfare, Office of Planning Association and the Bureau of Labor Statistics are used.
46 U.S. D epartm ent o f Labor, Manpower Administration,
Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Division of
Dictionary of Occupational Titles, 3d edition, 2 vols., 1965.
Operations Analysis, Technical Note No. 47, Dec. 12,1967.

46




ESTIM ATING REPLACEMENT NEEDS

Growth in employment requirements is not the only
determinant of tomorrow’s manpower needs. The need
to replace experienced workers who die, retire, or leave
the labor force for other reasons is also an improtant
determinant of manpower requirements. About half the
new entrants into the labor force during the 1965-75
decade will be needed to replace workers who die, retire,
or leave the labor force for other reasons. A third factor
that affects future manpower requirements is the trans­
fer of experienced persons between occupations. Finally,
at the State or area level, the occupational gains and
losses due to in- and out-migration of workers may be
considered, if regional analysis feel that these flows will
have a significant impact on future occupational require­
ments. Although this chapter emphasizes the computa­
tion of employment requirements stemming from deaths
and retirements, references are made to several studies of
limited scope which concern the transfer of workers
between occupations.
D eath and R etirem en t Losses

Employment requirements due to deaths and retire­
ments can be calculated in several ways. A very simple
way is to determine the average working life of members
of a particular occupation. If this average should, for
example, be 40 years for males, then 1/40, or 2Vi
percent should retire or die each year. This percentage
would be valid if the age distribution in the occupation
were uniform i.e., if the number of workers at each age
were equal. This situation could occur only if an
occupation had not grown for 40 years and had had a
steady influx of new young workers each year. The rate
could be multiplied by the number of male workers in
the occupation to obtain the actual number that would
be expected to leave the occupation each year. Since the
average working life for females is different than that for
males, a similar calculation could be made for female
workers in the occupation. (The calculation of the
female rate would be slightly more difficult because the
working life of females is different than that of males.)
Another method that might be used is to project
deaths and retirements separately. Appropriate mortality
rates are applied either to members of an occupation as a
whole, if the same age composition as for the population
in the country is assumed or by age when the age
composition of the occupation is available. Retirements
are estimated on the basis of the present age composi­




tion of the occupation and an estimate of the number
who will reach a predetermined or assumed retirement
age at each period in the future, after allowance for
deaths. This method would be appropriate if the typical
retirement age for members of an occupation were
known to be different from that of other occupations.
A more refined and simpler technique for estimating
deaths and retirements is based on “tables of working
life.” These tables are based upon, and are similar to,
standard life tables. The standard life table is a statistical
or actuarial device for summarizing the mortality experi­
ence of a population at some particular period of time,
i.e., the death rates, by age, over a one-year period.47 A
life table starts with a hypothetical group of persons—
usually 100,000 born alive— follows the group
and
through successive ages as it experiences attrition caused
by death. The attrition is estimated by applying the
death rates of the real population at each age, to the
survivors in the hypothetical population. The tables of
working life also follow through successive ages the labor
force participation experience of the initial group of
100,000 from 14 years of age on; it shows attrition
caused by withdrawals from the labor force as well as by
mortality. Tables of working life have been set up on an
actuarial basis for both males and females, and account
for the effects of deaths and retirements (separately) on
the work force at each age level. The tables of working
life for women take into account the effects of marital
status and presence of children, as well as death and
retirement.
Separations from the labor force of young males in
the ages in which labor force participation rates increase
from year to year include only separations resulting
from death,48 because retirements are not considered
significant in these ages.49 For males age 34 and over,
4
7 The working life tables used in this report are based on
the mortality rates and labor force participation rates for 1960.
48 In 1960, the labor force participation rate for males
peaked at age 34. However, the peak could vary from time to
tim e as different observations are made.
49 The process fails to consider disability retirements or the
possibility o f any other retirements until age 34, and even then
retirements are calculated on the basis o f declines in labor force
participation rates as workers age. To the extent that such
retirements do take place, the procedure results in some
understatement o f separations, but it is not considered to be
significant.

47

ages in which labor force participation rates are declining
from year to year, separations also include retirements,
i.e., all separations from the labor force for reasons other
than death. Total separations for males at each age, 34
and over, are estimated on the basis of declines in labor
force participation as workers grow older, and mortality.
Retirements in these ages are based upon declining labor
force participation rates in the consecutive age groups,
and they can be calculated by subtracting estimated
deaths from total separations. The table of working life
for males, based on mortality and labor force participa­
tion rates for 1960, is included at the end of this
chapter.50
Based on the tables of working life, the probability of
total separations from the labor force from one age to
any later age can be stated as the ratio of net separations
between two age intervals to the number in the labor
force in the base year. For young male workers, all
separations are deaths, which can be derived by subtract­
ing the number of an original 100,000 males born alive
who are still living in year X + 1 from those who were
alive in year X. For males 34 years old and over, net
separations can be derived by subtracting the number
still in the labor force in year X + 1 from the number in
the labor force in year X. For the latter example,
retirements equal net separations minus deaths. The
following tabulation presents a simplified summary of
this procedure:
Number Living of
1-Year Separation Rate
Year of 100,00 Born Alive
(Per 1,000 in Labor Force)
Age ---------------------------Population Labor Force Total Deaths Retirem ents
1 1.8
24 . . . 94,717
88,214 1 1.8
25 . . . 94,549
88,912
3 5.8
4 1.0
44 . . . 89,739
86,419 2 6.8
45 . . . 89,221
85,831
1 94,717 - 94,549 = 168 = .0018
94,717 94,717
2
8 6,419-85,831 = 588 = .0068
86,419
86,419
3 89,739 - 89,221 = 518 = .0058
89,739
89,739
4 .0068 -.00 5 8 = .0010
Source: Tables o f Working Life (1960), table 20.

The net separation rate for each single year of age or
for a group of years, 5 or 10, for example, can be
developed separately by the above technique. These
separation rates for each age group then can be applied
48




to the number of persons employed, or in the labor
force, in each age group to derive an estimate of the
number of persons who will die or retire in the specified
period. Table 14 illustrates the age specific separation
rates for males, based on the 1960 table of working life,
for selected age groups, for selected periods of time.
The procedure illustrated in table 15 estimates the
separations of carpenters from 1960 to 1970. No
allowance was made for deaths and retirements of new
entrants into the carpenter occupation after 1960, since
the assumption is that the great majority of new entrants
will be young persons with very low mortality rates and
few retirements. To the extent that some new entrants
during this decade actually will die or retire, the
separations calculated are understated.
A similar, but more involved, method can be used to
estimate separation rates for females. Once an adult male
enters the labor force he usually remains in the labor
force until retirement or death. This situation is not true
for most women. Women may withdraw temporarily
from the labor force because of marriage, presence of
children in the home, etc. Many of these women,
however, re-enter the labor force in later years after their
children reach school age or as a result of their husband’s
death, etc. Therefore, tables of working life for females
take into consideration temporary, as well as permanent
withdrawals or retirements from the labor force.
Table 16, derived from tables of working life for
women, shows the total separation rates for women by
selected age groups and the total number separated in a
single year based on these rates and the age distribution
of the female labor force in 1960. It also illustrates the
number of separations related to marriage, presence of
children, death, and age retirement.
Table 17 provides an estimate of the entrance
(accessions) of women into the labor force because of
age51, children reaching school age, and loss of husband.
If accessions by age are subtracted from total separations
by age (table 16) a net separation estimate for women
considerably lower than gross separations is derived. For
total females in the United States (according to 1960
50 The tables o f working life for males and females in this
report are for the Nation and are for all males and all females.
Tables could be developed on an urban-rural or white-nonwhite
break if so desired. In addition, tables o f working life could be
developed for many o f the States if the expertise and resources
were available to do it. However, for several reasons discussed on
p. States and areas should use the national tables o f working
life in estimating occupational replacement needs.
51 The rates include consideration for those wom en who
leave the labor force after marriage and return at a later tim e.

T a b le 1 4 .

A ge S p e c i f i c S e p a r a t io n R a te s f o r M a le s , I 9 6 0 1 /
A n n u al
r a te

A ge g r o u p s

.0 0 1 2 8
.0 0 1 8 1
.0 0 1 7 1
.0 0 2 2 7
.0 0 4 0 1
.0 0 5 8 4
.0 1 0 3 1

-y e a r
r a te

1 4 -1 9 y e a r s ----------------------------------------------2 0 - 2 4 y e a r s ----------------------------------------------2 5 -2 9 y e a r s ----------------------------------------------3 0 - 3 4 y e a r s --------------------------------------------- 3 5 -3 9 y e a r s ----------------------------------------------4 0 - 4 4 y e a r s ----------------------------------------------4 5 -4 9 y e a r s ----------------------------------------------5 0 - 5 4 y e a r s ----------- -----------------------------------5 5 -5 9 y e a r s ----------------------------------------------6 0 - 6 4 y e a r s ----------------------------------------------65 y e a r s and o v e r -----------------------------------

.0 3 2 3 2
.0 9 6 2 5
13464

3 5 - 4 4 y e a r s ----------------------------------------------4 5 - 5 4 y e a r s -----------------------------------------------

.0 0 4 9 1
.0 1 5 0 4

.0 7 9 1 7
.2 3 1 4 9

.0 2 9 1 7
.0 9 1 6 2

0

.0 2 5 1 9
.0 3 2 3 6
.0 4 6 3 0
.0 7 1 6 5
.1 2 1 9 6
.2 0 6 1 1
.3 3 8 4 2
.6 5 5 9 3
.7 8 5 2 5
.8 6 9 5 2
.9 3 3 4 6
.1 6 3 5 4
.4 9 1 5 7

10

.0 0 7 6 2
.0 0 8 8 2
.0 0 9 0 3
.014& 5
.0 2 3 1 0
.0 3 5 3 7
.0 6 8 2 4
.1 1 6 7 3
.1 9 6 1 4
.5 1 5 4 2
.5 1 2 7 3

.0 2 0 1 2

1 5 -y e a r
r a te

.0 1 6 3 9
.0 1 7 7 8
.0 2 3 7 5
.0 3 7 6 1
.0 5 7 6 6
.1 0 1 1 9
.1 7 7 0 0
.2 8 9 9 8
.6 1 0 4 6
.7 3 2 8 5
.7 9 5 4 0

5 -y e a r
r a te

1 / The a g e s p e c i f i c s e p a r a t io n r a t e s can be d e v e lo p e d t o a g r e e w it h any a v a i l a b l e o c c u p a t io n
by a g e d a t a . F o r e x a m p le , c e n s u s o f p o p u la t io n o c c u p a t io n by a g e d a t a a r e u s u a l ly in 5 - y e a r
g r o u p in g s , b u t b e tw e e n th e a g e s o f 35 and 5 4 th e y a r e in 1 0 - y e a r g r o u p in g s .

T a b le 1 5 .

E s tim a te d N a t io n a l 1 - and 1 0 - y e a r S e p a r a t io n s f o r M ale C a r p e n te r s

A ge g r o u p 1 9 6 0
T o ta l
1 4 -1 9 y e a r s -------------------------2 0 -2 4 y e a r s -------------------------2 5 -2 9 y e a r s -------------------------3 0 - 3 4 y e a r s -------------------------3 5 - 4 4 y e a r s -------------------------4 5 - 5 4 y e a r s -------------------------5 5 -5 9 y e a r s -------------------------6 0 -6 4 y e a r s -------------------------65 y e a r s and o v e r -------------

E m p loyed
m a le s
I96 0

^
1

-y e a r

S e p a r a t io n s

R a te
10

-y e a r

-y e a r

Number

-y e a r

.0 0 1 2 8
.0 0 1 8 1
.0 0 1 7 1
.0 0 2 2 7
.0 0 4 9 1
.0 1 5 0 4
.0 3 2 3 2
.0 9 6 2 5
.1 3 4 6 4

.0 1 6 3 9
.0 1 7 7 8
.0 2 3 7 4
.0 3 7 6 1
.0 7 9 1 7
.2 3 1 4 9
.6 1 0 4 6
.7 3 2 8 5
.7 9 5 4 0

1 9 3 ,2 2 0

23
95

292
950
1 ,6 7 4
3 ,3 2 7
1 6 ,8 2 9
4 4 ,6 9 7
4 7 ,5 3 0
4 2 ,0 3 5
3 5 ,8 8 6

121
201

1 ,0 4 4
2 ,9 0 4
2 ,5 1 6
5 ,5 2 1
6 ,0 7 4

S o u r c e : A ge d i s t r i b u t i o n - - U . S . B u rea u o f C e n s u s , U .S . C e n su s o f P o p u l a t i o n , 1 9 6 0 .
C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . U n ite d S t a t e s Sum m ary, F in a l R e p o r t P C (1 )-1 D .




10

1 8 ,4 0 4

8 1 6 ,1 9 5
1 7 ,8 4 2
5 3 ,4 1 6
7 0 ,4 8 1
8 8 ,4 7 0
2 1 2 ,5 6 8
1 9 3 ,0 8 4
7 7 ,8 5 9
5 7 ,3 5 8
4 5 ,1 1 7
<-----------------------------------

1

D e t a i le d

49

T a b le 1 6 .

E s tim a te d A nnual Number and R a te o f S e p a r a tio n s
f o r th e F em ale L abor F o r c e : 19 60
(I n th o u s a n d s )

A ge grou p

T o ta l
r a te

Separa­
tio n
num ber

1 4 -1 9 y e a r s ----------2 0 -2 4 y e a r s ----------2 5 -2 9 y e a r s ----------3 0 -3 4 y e a r s ----------3 5 -3 9 y e a r s ----------4 0 -4 4 y e a r s ----------4 5 -4 9 y e a r s ----------5 0 -5 4 y e a r s ----------5 5 -5 9 y e a r s ----------6 0 -6 4 y e a r s ----------65 y e a r s and
o v e r ---------------------

S e p a r a tio n s r e l a t e d to :
B ir t h
Age
D ea th
of
M a r ria g e
R a te Number
c h i l d r en
R a te Number R a te Number
R a te Number
84

1119

23272

T o ta l

1/

L ab or
fo r c e
1 9 60

2073
25 42
1955
2180
2627
2773
2879
2349
1797
1196

.0 6 3 4
o 1066
.0 3 9 3

901

.1 4 1 1

131
271
77
27

.0 1 4 0
.0 1 5 9
.0 0 3 1

29
40
6

52
78
89
116
129

.0 0 8 4
.0 1 8 8
.0 2 6 9
.0 3 7 7
.0 6 4 5
.1 0 7 9

.0 0 1 5
(1 )
(1 )
(1 )
(1 )
(1 )

5
4
(1 )
(1 )
(1 )
(1 )
(1 )

127

.0 1 2 2

(1 )

44 0
.0 4 8 8
.0 9 0 0
.0 3 5 3
.0 0 8 8
.0 0 5 1

(1 )

22

.0 0 2 2

.0 0 2 6

.0 0 0 6
(1 )
(1 )
(1 )
(1 )

101

229
69
19
13
7

138
.0 0 0 6
.0 0 0 7
.0 0 0 9

457

1
2
2

3
5

.0 0 1 2

(1 )
(1 )
(1 )
(1 )
(1 )
.0 1 3 4

(1 )
(1 )
(1 )
(1 )
(1 )
37
64
74
99

(1 )
(1 )
(1 )

.0 0 1 8
.0 0 2 8
.0 0 4 2
.0 0 6 3
.0 0 9 2
.0 1 4 3

15
17
17

.0 3 1 4
.0 5 5 3
.0 9 3 6

112

(1 )

.0 6 3 0

56

.0 7 8 1

71

2

8
12

.0 2 2 1

Amount n o t s i g n i f i c a n t .

N o te :

T o t a ls may n o t add du e to r o u n d in g .

S o u r c e : Work L i f e E x p e c ta n c y and T r a in in g N eed s o f Women, M anpower R e p o r t N o. 1 2 . U .S .
D ep a rtm en t o f L a b o r , M anpower A d m in is t r a t io n .
T a b le 1 7 .

E s tim a te d A nnual Number and R a te o f A c c e s s io n s
to th e F em a le L ab or F o r c e : 1960
(I n th o u s a n d s )

A ge grou p

1960
p o p u la t io n

T o ta l

64961

1 4 -1 9 y e a r s ------2 0 -2 4 y e a r s ------2 5 -2 9 y e a r s ------3 0 -3 4 y e a r s ------3 5 -3 9 y e a r s ------4 0 -4 4 y e a r s ------4 5 -4 9 y e a r s ------5 0 - 5 4 y e a r s ------5 5 -5 9 y e a r s ------6 0 -6 4 y e a r s ------65 y e a r s and
o v e r -----------------

7934
5520
55 37
6111
6419
59 18
5554
49 32
4411
3727

T o ta l a c c e s s io n s
R a te
Number

Age
R a te Number

1296
.0 8 9 8
.0 3 2 3
.0 0 7 6
.0 1 1 4
.0 1 5 0
.0 1 4 4

91 6

712
178
42
69
96

.0 8 9 8
.0 3 1 6
.0 0 2 5
.0 0 0 7
.0 0 1 7

86

.0 0 0 1

.0 0 6 4
.0 0 3 8

57
32
16

.0 0 2 1

8

(1 )

(1 )

.0 1 0 2

8898

A c c e s s io n s r e l a t e d to :
C h ild r e n r e a c h in g
L o ss o f h u sb an d
sch o o l age
R a te
Number R a te
Number

712
174
14
4
11
1

(1 )
(1 )
(1 )
(1 )

j

(1 )
(1 )
(1 )
(1 )

(1 )

(1 )

309
(1 )
.0 0 0 7
.0 0 5 1
.0 1 0 7
.0 1 2 5
.0 1 2 6
.0 0 7 7
.0 0 2 8
(1 )

4
28
65
80
75
43
14
(1 )
(1 )

(1 )

(1 )

.0 0 0 1

71
(1 )
(1 )
(1 )
(1 )
.0 0 0 8
.0 0 1 7
.0 0 2 5
.0 0 3 7

.0 0 3 6
.0 0 2 1

8

(1 )

T o t a ls may n o t add d ue to r o u n d in g .

S o u r c e : Work L i f e E x p e c ta n c y and T r a in in g N eed s o f Women, M anpower R e p o r t N o. 1 2 , U .S .
D ep a rtm en t o f L a b o r , Manpower A d m in is t r a t io n .

50




10

14
18
16

IV A m ounts n o t s i g n i f i c a n t .
N o te :

(1 )
(1 )
(1 )
(1 )
5

information) the total gross separation rate for females
would be about 4.8 percent, compared with a net
separation rate of about 3.2 percent.52
To estimate gross separations for females in a
particular occupation, the age specific total separation
rates found in table 16 would be applied to the number
of workers in each age group. Table 18 illustrates a
calculation of the annual gross separations for secre­
taries, stenographers, and typists—
110,758 (or 5.1 per­
cent of the total). If training needs were being calculated
instead of manpower requirements, gross separations
could be reduced to the extent that qualified secretaries
return from outside the labor force by applying the
accession rates in table 17 to the approximate age
groups, and subtracting the resultant from gross separa­
tions.53
Separation rates for females have been developed for
1 year only (see tables 16 and 17), due to the
characteristics of the participation of females in the
labor force. Occupational replacement needs for females
for 5, 10, or 15 year age groups can be approximated by
multiplying the 1-year rates by the respective number of
years; the assumption is that new entrants into the
occupation will maintain the 1960 age distribution.
52
Gross
Separations minus
(thousands)
84 (marriage)
44 0 (birth o f
children)

Accessions equals
(thousands)

Net
Separations
(thousands)

71 Goss o f
husband)
309 (children
reaching
school age)

13
131

595 (deaths and
retirements)
1119 Total

380

Total

739

Total

The total separation rate for females is com puted as follows:
total number o f separations 1,119 = .0481
total labor force
23,272
The net separation rate is com puted as follows:
net number o f separations
739 = .0318
total labor force
23,272
53 From a training point o f view, however, wom en who
have been out o f the labor force for several years may need
significant refresher training before taking over the duties o f an
occupation at which they were em ployed 10 to 15 years before.
Moreover, this adjustment assumes that female secretaries,
stenographers, and typists have the same temporary retirement
patterns as female workers as a whole.




Limitations
Several assumptions underlie the development and
use of separation rates. One significant assumption is
that mortality trends and retirement patterns do not
differ by occupation. This statement is not true,
however. Differences in the nature of work, the expo­
sure of workers to disabilizing work environments, the
coverage and provision of pension plans, the extent of
opportunities for employment, and many other factors
influence retirement patterns and mortality trends
among occupations. For example, the retirement pattern
of physicians, who often practice until old age, is very
different from that of linemen or roofers, who withdraw
from these occupations at a young age because of the
physical requirements of these jobs. Similarly, the use of
overall separation rates for women assumes that the
characteristics of marriage, presence of children in the
home, etc., have the same affect on all females regardless
of occupation. Women who have the greatest amount of
education and, thus, who are concentrated in certain
occupations, however, have higher labor force participa­
tion rates than the average. Their temporary withdrawal
from the labor force, therefore, is much less certain than
for women with less education.
The national separation rates are given in appendix A
to this volume. For several occupations, the number of
separations derived by using these rates has been
compared with data from other sources. For example,
for several skilled building trades, the U.S. Department
of Labor has collected statistics on the number of
journeymen per 1,000 who become unavailable for work
because of death, permanent disability, or retirement
during a 12-month period. In general, the average rates
based on these surveys were very similar to the com­
puted death and retirement rates derived by using tables
of working life. Rates for metal trades occupations
developed in a 1957 study of the New York State
Department of Labor were very similar to those com­
puted by the methods described in this chapter.54 On
the basis of these evaluations, these rates are quite
representative of the true rates for most occupations. In
the absence of more comprehensive data for individual
occupations, the tables of working life provide a
systematic method for obtaining an estimate of the
general magnitude of separations resulting from deaths
and retirements. Regional analysts, however, should
54
M anpow er in S elected M etal Crafts, N ew Y ork State,
New York State Department o f Labor, Division o f Research and
Statistics, Publication N o. R -1 07,1959.

51

adjust separation rates judgmentally, however, if retire­
ment patterns (or mortality rates) of particular occupa­
tions are known to differ from that of the general
population in a State or area.
Another limitation of the overall technique relates to
the timeliness of age distribution data for occupations. A
comprehensive source of this data is the decennial census
of population— most recent was for the year 1960.
the
The age distribution of occupations changes over time,
however, and to the extent that the 1960 age distribu­
tion does not reflect the current or anticipated age
distribution of an occupation, the estimate of employ­
ment requirements will be affected. Regional analysts
may want to modify separation rates somewhat to take
account of recent apparent changes in the age distribu­
tion of an occupation. For example, if an occupation has
been growing very rapidly in a State or area since the
period for which age distribution data is available,
perhaps the derived separations should be lowered
slightly to take account of the influx of young people
into the occupation. Conversely, regional analysts may
increase the derived separations slightly if an occupation
has shown little growth or decline in the period since
comprehensive age distribution data become available.
How to develop separation rates for
a State or area
States and areas can develop in several ways estimates
of manpower requirements arising from the need to re­
place experienced workers who die, retire, or who other­
wise withdraw from the labor force over the projection
period. The simplest way is to apply the national rates in
appendix A for each occupation to the midpoint of the
appropriate occupational projection for the State or
area. The assumptions underlying the use of national
separation rates for a State or area are: (l)The age
distribution for the occupation in a State or area is the
same as in the Nation, and (2) the mortality trends and
retirement patterns by age within the State or area are
the same as in the Nation. The latter assumption is more
valid than the former. Mortality trends by age are
probably quite similar across the Nation. For example,
life insurance companies use one set of life tables for all
sections of the country. Although retirement patterns
(labor force participation rates) do vary somewhat across
the country because of, for example, opportunities for
employment and local customs, in general, participation
rates do not differ greatly, (see tabulation above).
52




Labor Force Participation Rates by Age and Sex, 1960
Males
Females
14 25
25 55
Total to to 55 Total 14 to and
Area
to
144 24 54 and
144 24 54 over
over
United States. 77.4 57.1 94.7 57.3 34.5 32.5 41.4 22.1
New York. . . 78.1 52.6 94.8 61.7 37.0 37.443.2 24.9
California. . . 79.5 63.0 95.1 56.2 36.1 32.143.6 22.8
Source: “ Labor Force Projections By State, 1970 and 1980.”
Special Labor Force Report No. 87, Reprinted from
the “ M onthly Labor Review,” October 1967, U.S.
Departm ent of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

In terms of the first assumption, the age distribution of
an occupation probably differs somewhat between
States. State and area analysts who are interested in
estimating local separations by using the national rates in
appendix A should compare the national age distribution
for an occupation with the age distribution in the State,
and perhaps adjust the rate up or down slightly on the
basis of the comparison. For example, if the ages of
plumbers in Nebraska in 1960 were generally older than
in the Nation, perhaps for Nebraska a separation rate of
2.1 percent instead of a national rate of 1.8 percent
might be used.
A second technique, recommended by the Bureau of
Labor Statistics, is to use the age-specific rates derived
from the national tables of working life, table 14 for
males and table 16 for females, and apply them to the
age distribution of occupations in the State. This
technique takes account of differences in the age
distributions between States and the Nation for occupa­
tions. Table 19 below provides an example of applying
the national annual separation rate for males to the age
distribution of carpenters in New York and California.
Although there were about one-quarter more carpenters
in California than in New York, only about onefourteenth more job openings would be expected to
arise annually from deaths and retirements of employed
carpenters in California than in New York. The em­
ployed carpenters in California tend to be younger than
those in New York (or in the Nation) and this fact is in­
dicated in the derived separation rates.
18,404
United States
816,195 = 2.25
1,406
New York
57,951 = 2.43
1,500
California
73,797 = 2.03

T a b le

18.

E s tim a te d

1-y e a r

S e p a ra tio n s

S te n o g raph ers,

and

E m p lo ye d

Age g ro u p

of

F e m a le

S e c re ta rie s

T y p is ts
Num ber o f

S e p a ra tio n

fe m a le s

1960

s e p a ra tio n s

ra te s

T o t a l ............................................. .......................

1 4 - 1 9 y e a r s -----------------------------------------------------------------2 0 - 2 4 y e a r s -----------------------------------------------------------------2 5 - 2 9 y e a r s --------------------------------------------------- -------------3 0 - 3 4 y e a r s ---------------------- -------------------- ----------------------3 5 - 4 4 y e a r s -----------------------------------------------------------------4 5 - 5 4 y e a r s -----------------------------------------------------------------5 5 - 5 9 y e a r s ------------------------------------------------------------------6 0 - 6 4 y e a r s -----------------------------------------------------------------6 5 y e a r s a n d o v e r ------------------------------------------------

2 3 5 ,4 0 7
4 5 6 ,1 4 0
2 5 6 ,2 6 4
2 2 6 ,2 7 8
4 7 0 ,3 1 1
3 4 4 ,9 0 0
1 0 4 ,6 5 7
5 3 ,2 3 7
3 1 ,4 4 7

1 1 0 ,7 5 8

2 , 1 7 8 ,6 4 1

T a b le

Age g ro u p

1960

19.

E s tim a te d 1-Y e a r
C a r p e n t e r s , New Y o r k

.0 6 3 4
. 1066
.0 3 9 3
.0 1 2 2
.0 1 3 7
.0 3 1 9
.0 6 4 5
.1 0 7 9
.1 4 1 1

1

S e p a ra tio n s f o r
and C a l i f o r n i a

E m p lo y e d m a le s

1960

New Y o r k

C a lifo rn ia

T o t a l ------------- -------------------- --------------------

5 7 ,9 5 1
872
3 ,4 8 4
5 ,6 2 7
6 ,9 6 1
1 4 ,3 8 7
1 2 ,3 3 8
6 ,0 6 4
4 ,8 4 3
3 ,3 7 5

1 ,4 0 6
5 ,2 0 4
6 ,5 3 6
7 ,9 2 5
2 0 ,9 0 4
1 7 ,4 8 0
6 ,4 7 4
4 ,5 5 1
3 ,3 1 7

M ale

Sources:
Age
C h a ra c te ris tic s ,




d i s t r i b u t i o n - U .S . B ure au o f
New Y o r k , F i n a l R e p o r t P C ( 1 ) -

s e p a ra tio n s
New Y o r k
C a lifo rn ia

ra te

1 ,4 0 6
.0 0 1 2 8
.0 0 1 8 1
.0 0 1 7 1
.0 0 2 2 7
.0 0 4 9 1
.0 1 5 0 4
.0 3 2 3 2
.0 9 6 2 5
.1 3 4 6 4

C ensus, U .S . Census
and C a l i f o r n i a ,

34D,

Num ber o f

S e p a ra tio n

7 3 ,7 9 7

1 4 - 1 9 y e a r s --------------------------------------------------2 0 - 2 4 y e a r s --------------------------------------------------2 5 - 2 9 y e a r s --------------------------------------------------3 0 - 3 4 y e a r s --------------------------------------------------3 5 - 4 4 y e a r s --------------------------------------------------4 5 - 5 4 y e a r s ------------- -------------- ----------------------5 5 - 5 9 y e a r s --------------------------------------------------6 0 - 6 4 y e a r s --------------------------------------------------65 y e a r s a n d o v e r ---------------------------------

1 4 ,9 2 5
4 8 ,6 2 5
1 0 ,0 7 1
2 ,7 6 1
6 ,4 4 3
1 1 ,0 0 2
6 ,7 5 0
5 ,7 4 4
4 ,4 3 7

1 ,5 0 0

1
6
10
16
71
186
196
466
454

2
9
11
18
1 03
263
209
438
447

o f P o p u la tio n 1 9 6 0 , D e ta ile d
F i n a l R e p o rt P C ( 1 ) - 6D.

53

States and areas that have the time, the resources, the
expertise, and the data sources can develop their own
tables of working life. From these tables, age specific
separation rates can be computed similar to those
developed by BLS for the Nation and described above.
This technique is involved technically and the derived
rates for States probably would not add the degree of
precision to the estimate of manpower requirements
worth the expenditure of time and resources. Neverthe­
less, decisions about such computations should be made
by the respective State or area analysts who are familiar
with local data sources and the technical and financial
resources available.

by the U.S. Office of Education. Two detailed studies of
teacher turnover (1957-58 and 1959-60) determined the
number of teachers who left their positions between the
beginning of one school year and the next.55 The
separation rate for elementary school teachers based on
this study was 8.1 percent. About one-half of these
separations were deaths and withdrawals from the labor
force, and the remainder were transfers to other occupa­
tions.
A monumental study56 of mobility was made by the
Social Science Research Council. Ten-year work histories
were collected from workers in sample households in
each of 6 large cities. In all, 13,000 work history
schedules were collected. Each job held by the workers
were classified by occupation and occupation group.
Transfers to Other Occupations
Thus, for each person, one could obtain the number of
job changes and occupational changes made. By combin­
Transfer from one occupation to another occupation ing the data, a measure of the incidence and the pattern
is an additional factor that can be considered when of movement out of an occupation was obtained.
estimates of future manpower or training requirements
Several other attempts have been made to measure
are being developed. In some occupations, the transfer the rate of movement out of an occupation. Two studies
rate may be as high as the death and retirement rate.
analyzed net occupational mobility57 by applying
In general, workers tend to move from less skilled to cohort analysis to the data from successive censuses of
more skilled occupations. For example, a factory opera­ population supplemented by the monthly labor force
tor may become a foreman, and move from a semiskilled survey.58 “Model Cohort Work Experience Tables” were
to a skilled classification; similarly, a mechanic may designed for major occupational groups. The primary
transfer to a technician job, and shift from the craftsmen purpose of the study was to determine (1) the net
to the professional, technical, and kindred workers
classification. This type of transfer is usually the result
of long experience, often supplemented by additional
55 Teacher Turnover in the Public Schools, 1957-58, U.S.
training.
Office of Education, OE-23002, Circular 608,1959, and Teacher
Unfortunately, comprehensive data are not available Turnover in Public Elementary and Secondary Schools, 1959-60,
on the rate of transfers between occupations. Most of OE-23002-60, Circular 675,1963.
the data available stems from selected sample studies of
56 Gladys L. Palmer, Labor Mobility
work histories collected from individuals. One such Social Science Research Council, 1954. in 6 Cities, New York,
study, Postcensal Study o f Professional and Technical
Personnel, followed up 2 years after the 1960 census
57 “A Note on Occupational Mobility for White and
persons classified in science, engineering, and other Nonwhite Males, 1950 to 1965,” A. J. Jaffe and J. B. Gordon,
The N ew York
1966. This
defines
professional and technical occupations. The purpose of net mobility asStatistician , December estimates ofstudy occupa­
“The
net
the study was to determine the proportion of workers tional movementthe following: by following an age cohort of
were derived
who changed occupations over the 2-year period. For men from one census period to another. For example, let us
example, the annual transfer rate for engineers was suppose that there were 1,000 men aged 30 to 34 years in service
estimated at 1.6 percent, for life scientists, 2.6 percent, occupations in 1950. By 1960 these men were aged 40 to 44.
Let us assume that 50 of these men have died, leaving 950 alive.
for technicians, 3 percent.
If we find
census reports 1,100 men in
Another study, Career Patterns o f Former Appren­ occupationsthat the 196044, we assume that there wasservice
aged 40 to
a net
tices , (U.S. Department of Labor, Bulletin T-147, March in-movement of 150 men into this occupation group
1959), provides information on occupational transfers (1,100-950= 150).”
for several craft occupations. For example, more than 10
58 “Occupational Mobility
United States,” A.
percent of the apprentice carpenters who completed the and R. O. Carleton, New York, in the Crown Press, 1954 J. Jaffe
apprenticeship program in 1950 were in other occupa­ Note on Occupational Mobility KingWhite and Nonwhiteand “A
tions in 1956. Moreover, estimates of losses to teaching 1950 to 1965,” A. J. Jaffe andfor B. Gordon, The N ew Males,
J.
York
occupations have been developed from surveys prepared Statistician, December 1966.
54




occupational mobility that actually occurred; (2) the
occupational distribution of new entrances into the
labor force; and (3) the occupational distribution of
retirements from the labor force. The net mobility
estimate was the difference between the number of
persons moving into and out of an occupation. Recently,
work has proceeded on a white-nonwhite break between
1950 and 1965.
Recently, the Bureau of Labor Statistics undertook a
study of occupational mobility. This study adds to an
earlier one made on the shifts of workers from one
employer to another during 1961 that yielded some
valuable insights into the mobility of men and women
by age and occupational group. The new study focuses
on the occupational shifts of workers in major occupa­
tional groups between January 1965 and January
1966.59
Although little comprehensive data is available to
estimate changes in occupational requirements due to
transfers between occupations, this weakness in the
technique is not considered greatly significant for the
planning of education and training programs. Generally,

estimates of occupational requirements based on
expected growth and replacements are adequate for
most planning purposes. Most States or areas do not
have the available resources to train workers to fill all
the anticipated job openings in occupations. Moreover,
to do so probably would be wasteful because many
workers pick up an occupation informally, for example,
and learn by observing or working at various aspects of a
trade until most or all have been learned. Indications are
that many workers have learned the skills of their trade
informally.60 The fact that workers are not trained to
fill all anticipated job openings provides some flexibility
in the future supply of workers to be filled by the
transfer of workers between occupations. There are
other ways also by which employers can overcome a
shortage of skills. Depending upon the extent of under
supply in an occupation, local employers will tend to
find ways to “make do” with the available skills
through, for example, in plant education, job redesign
and the use of job aides, general upgrading, reorganiza­
tion of work, and hiring outside the geographic area.

See, Formal Occupational Training o f A du lt Workers,
59
“Occupational M obility o f E m ployed Workers,** Special 60
Manpower Automation Research Monograph No. 2, U.S. Depart­
Labor Force R eport No. 84 reprinted from the M onthly Labor
ment of Labor, Manpower Administration, Office of Manpower,
R eview , June 1967, U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics.




Automation and Training, December 1964.

55

Ln
Os
T a b le

(1)
Yea rs

t o x +1

lx

^wx
(In

14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45

y e a rs -y e a rs -y e a rs -y e a rs -y e a rs -y e a rs -yea rs-y e a rs -y e a rs -y e a rs -y e a rs -y e a rs -y e a rs -y e a rs -y e a rs -y e a rs -y e a rs -y e a rs -y e a rs -y e a rs -y e a rs -y e a rs -y e a rs -y e a rs -y e a r.s -y e a rs -y e a rs -y e a rs -y e a rs -y e a rs -y e a rs -y e a rs --




9 6 ,1 4 5
9 6 ,0 6 0
9 5 ,9 6 0
9 5 ,8 4 2
9 5 ,7 1 0
9 5 ,5 6 6
9 5 ,4 1 1
9 5 ,2 4 4
9 5 ,0 6 9
9 4 ,8 9 2
9 4 ,7 1 7
9 4 ,5 4 9
9 4 ,3 8 6
9 4 ,2 2 7
9 4 ,0 6 9
9 3 ,9 0 8
9 3 ,7 4 1
9 3 ,5 6 7
9 3 ,3 8 6
9 3 ,1 9 5
9 2 ,9 9 3
9 2 ,7 7 7
9 2 ,5 4 6
9 2 ,2 9 7
9 2 ,0 2 4
9 1 ,7 2 7
9 1 ,4 0 1
9 1 ,0 4 2
9 0 ,6 4 7
9 0 ,2 1 5
8 9 ,7 3 9
8 9 ,2 2 1

wx
year of

1 4 ,8 0 6
1 9 ,7 8 8
3 1 ,2 8 3
4 5 ,0 4 6
6 2 ,0 2 0
7 3 ,1 0 8
7 9 ,0 9 6
8 2 ,1 9 6
8 4 ,5 1 6
8 6 ,1 6 2
8 7 ,3 2 9
8 8 ,2 1 4
8 8 ,9 1 2
8 9 ,5 1 6
9 0 ,0 2 4
9 0 ,4 3 3
9 0 ,7 4 1
9 0 ,7 6 0
9 0 ,6 7 8
9 0 ,5 8 6
9 0 ,4 4 6
9 0 ,1 7 9
8 9 ,8 6 2
8 9 ,5 2 8
8 9 ,1 7 1
8 8 ,7 9 2
8 8 ,3 8 5
8 7 ,9 4 7
8 7 ,4 7 4
8 6 ,9 6 7
8 6 ,4 1 9
8 5 ,8 3 1

T a b le

of

(5)
A c c e s s i o n s .to
the la b o r f o r c e
(p e r 1 ,0 0 0 in
p o p u la tio n )
1000 Ax

M a le s ,

196 0

(6)
(8)
(7)
S e p a ra tio n s from the la b o r fo rc e
(p e r 1 ,0 0 0 in la b o r f o r c e )
Due t o
Du e t o
Due t o a l l
causes
re tire m e n t
Death
1 0 0 0 QX
r
1 0 0 0 QS
1 0 0 0 Qd
(B etw ee n y e a r s

age)

1 5 .4
2 0 .6
3 2 .6
4 7 .0
6 4 .8
7 6 .5
8 2 .9
8 6 .3
8 8 .9
9 0 .8
9 2 .2
9 3 .3
9 4 .2
9 5 .0
9 5 .7
9 6 .3
9 6 .8
9 7 .0
9 7 .1
9 7 .2
9 7 .3
9 7 .2
9 7 .1
9 7 .0
9 6 .9
9 6 .8
9 6 .7
9 6 .6
9 6 .5
9 6 .4
9 6 .3
9 6 .2

W o rk in g L i f e ,

5 2 .0
1 1 9 .9
1 4 3 .8
1 7 7 .8
1 1 6 .8
6 3 .9
3 4 .0
2 6 .0
1 8 .9
1 3 .9
1 1 .0
9 .0
8 .0
7 .0
6 .0
5 .0
2 .0
1 .0
1 .0
.6
----

--------

.9
1 .0
1 .2
1 .4
1 .5
1 .6
1 .8
1 .9
1 .8
1 .8
1 .8
1 .7
1 .7
1 .7
1 .7
1 .8
1 .9
1 .9
2 .0
2 .2
3 .0
3 .5
3 .7
4 .0
4 .3
4 .6
5 .0
5 .4
5 .8
6 .3
6 .8
7 .4

of

.9
1 .0
1 .2
1 .4
1 .5
1 .6
1 .8
1 .9
1 .8
1 .8
1 .8
1 .7
1 .7
1 .7
1 .7
1 .8
1 .9
1 .9
2 .0
2 .2
2 .3
2 .5
2 .7
3 .0
3 .2
3 .6
3 .9
4 .3
4 .8
5 .3
5 .8
6 .3

(9)
( 10)
A v e ra g e number o f
re m a in in g y e a rs o f
Labor fo rc e
L ife
p a rtic ip a tio n
o
ex
Od)

x

of

(4)
( 2)
(3)
N u m b e r l i v i n g o f 1 0 0 ,0 0 0 b o r n a l i v e
In la b o r fo rc e
P e rcent o f
In
p o p u la tio n
P o p u la tio n
N um be r

20.

(A t

age)

..
---------------.7
1 .0
1 .0
1 .0
1 .1
1 .0
1 .1
1 .1
1 .0
1 .0
1 .0
1 .1

5 5 .4
5 4 .4
5 3 .5
5 2 .5
5 1 .6
5 0 .7
4 9 .8
4 8 .8
4 7 .9
4 7 .0
4 6 .1
4 5 .2
4 4 .3
43 ; 4
4 2 .4
4 1 .5
4 0 .6
3 9 .6
3 8 .7
3 7 .8
3 6 .9
3 5 .9
3 5 .0
3 4 .1
3 3 .2
3 2 .3
3 1 .4
3 0 .5
2 9 .7
2 8 .8
2 7 .9
2 7 .1

b e g in n in g o f y e a r
o f age)

4 8 .4
4 7 .4
4 6 .4
4 5 .5
4 4 .5
4 3 .6
4 2 .7
4 1 .8
4 0 .8
3 9 .9
3 9 .0
3 8 .0
3 7 .1
3 6 .2
3 5 .2
3 4 .3
3 3 .3
3 2 .4
3 1 .5
3 0 .5
2 9 .6
2 8 .7
2 7 .8
2 6 .9
2 6 .0
2 5 .1
2 4 .2
2 3 .3
2 2 .4
2 1 .5
2 0 .7
1 9 .8

T a b le

(1)
Yea rs
x to

of
x +1

(2)
Number l i v i n g
In
p o p u la tio n

20,

T a b le

(4)
born a l iv e
In la b o r fo rc e
P ercent of
p o p u la tio n
N um be r
(

of

W o rk in g L i f e ,

(5)
A c c e s s io n s to
the la b o r fo rc e
(p e r 1 ,0 0 0 in
p o p u la tio n )
1000 Ax

3)
1 0 0 ,0 0 0

^w x

of

wx

M a le s ,

1960-

-C o n tin u e d

(6)
(8)
(7)
S e p a ra tio n s from the la b o r fo rc e
(p e r 1 ,0 0 0 in la b o r fo r c e )
Du e t o
Due to
Du e t o a l l
re tire m e n t
Death
causes
1 0 0 0 Qd
1 0 0 0 QS
1 0 0 0 QX
r

( 10)
9)
A v e ra g e num ber o f
re m a in in g y e a r s o f
Labor force
p a rtic ip a tio n
L ife
o
o
ew
ex
X
(

(A t
(In

46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78




yea rs
years
years
years
yea rs
years
years
years
years
yea rs
yea rs
yea rs
yea rs
years
yea rs
years
years
years
years
yea rs
years
years
yea rs
years
years
years
yea rs
years
yea rsyears
yearsyearsyears-

8 8 ,6 5 5
8 8 ,0 3 3
8 7 ,3 5 1
8 6 ,5 9 5
8 5 ,7 6 2
8 4 ,8 4 7
8 3 ,8 5 2
8 2 ,7 7 8
8 1 ,6 3 0
8 0 ,4 1 1
79 * 1 1 7
7 7 ,7 4 2
7 6 ,2 7 2
7 4 ,7 0 0
7 3 ,0 1 9
7 1 ,2 3 0
6 9 ,3 3 4
6 7 ,3 3 9
6 5 ,2 4 6
6 3 ,0 6 2
6 0 ,7 8 9
5 8 ,4 3 3
5 6 ,0 0 2
5 3 ,5 0 7
5 0 ,9 5 5
4 8 ,3 5 2
4 5 ,7 0 8
4 3 ,0 2 5
4 0 ,3 1 3
3 7 ,5 8 0
3 4 ,8 3 9
3 2 ,1 0 0
2 9 ,3 6 9

year of

8 5 ,1 9 7
8 4 ,4 6 3
8 3 ,6 1 2
8 2 ,6 2 5
8 1 ,4 8 4
8 0 ,1 8 0
7 8 ,7 2 7
7 7 ,1 4 0
7 5 ,4 2 0
7 3 ,5 7 6
7 1 ,6 2 1
6 9 ,5 4 9
6 7 ,3 4 8
6 4 ,9 8 9
6 2 ,3 5 8
5 9 ,4 0 6
5 6 ,2 3 0
5 2 ,7 9 4
4 8 ,2 1 7
3 5 ,5 0 4
2 9 ,4 8 3
2 5 ,8 8 6
2 3 ,3 5 3
2 0 ,9 7 5
1 8 ,7 5 1
1 6 ,6 8 1
1 4 ,7 6 4
1 2 ,9 9 0
1 1 ,3 4 9
9 ,8 4 1
8 ,4 4 8
7 ,1 6 6
5 ,9 9 9

age)

9 6 .1
9 5 .9
9 5 .7
9 5 .4
9 5 .0
9 4 .5
9 3 .9
9 3 .2
9 2 .4
9 1 ,5
9 0 .5
8 9 .5
8 8 .3
8 7 .0
8 5 .4
8 3 .4
8 1 .1
7 8 .4
7 3 .9
5 6 .3
4 8 .5
4 4 .3
4 1 .7
3 9 ,2
3 6 .8
3 4 .5
3 2 .3
3 0 .2
2 8 .2
2 6 .2
2 4 .2
2 2 .3
2 0 .4

(B etw ee n y e a r s

-------------------------------1

8 .6
1 0 .1
1 1 .8
1 3 .8
1 6 .0
1 8 .1
2 0 .2
2 2 .3
2 4 .4
2 6 .6
2 8 .9
3 1 .6
3 5 .0
4 0 .5
4 7 .3
5 3 .5
6 1 .1
8 6 .7
2 6 3 .7
1 6 9 .6
1 2 2 .0
9 7 .9
1 0 1 .8
1 0 6 .0
1 1 0 .3
1 1 5 .0
1 2 0 .2
1 2 6 .2
1 3 2 .9
1 4 1 .6
1 5 1 .8
1 6 2 .9
1 7 4 .9

of

7 .0
7 .7
8 .7
9 .6
1 0 .7
1 1 .7
1 2 .8
1 3 .8
1 4 .8
1 6 .0
1 7 .3
1 8 .8
2 0 .5
2 2 .3
2 4 .2
2 6 .2
2 8 .3
3 0 .2
2 9 .6
3 3 .6
3 7 .2
4 0 .4
4 3 .3
4 6 .3
4 9 .5
5 3 .0
5 6 .8
6 0 .9
6 5 .5
7 0 .3
7 5 .6
8 1 .6
8 8 .4

age)

1 .6
2 .4
3 .1
4 .2
5 .3
6 .4
7 .4
8 .5
9 .6
1 0 .6
1 1 .6
1 2 .8
1 4 .5
1 8 .2
2 3 .1
2 7 .3
3 2 .8
5 6 .5
2 3 4 .1
1 3 6 .0
8 4 .8
5 7 .5
5 8 .5
5 9 .7
6 0 .8
6 2 .0
6 3 .4
6 5 .3
6 7 .4
7 1 .3
7 6 .2
8 1 .3
8 6 .5

2 6 .3
2 5 .4
2 4 .6
2 3 .8
2 3 .0
2 2 .2
2 1 .5
2 0 .8
2 0 .0
1 9 .3
1 8 .6
1 7 .9
1 7 .2
1 6 .6
1 5 .9
1 5 .3
1 4 .7
1 4 .1
1 3 .5
1 3 .0
1 2 .4
1 1 .9
1 1 .3
1 0 .8
1 0 .3
9 .8
9 .4
8 .9
8 .4
8 .0
7 .6
7 .1
6 .7

b e g in n in g o f
o f age)

1 8 .9
1 8 .1
1 7 .2
1 6 .4
1 5 .6
1 4 .9
1 4 .1
1 3 .4
1 2 .7
1 1 .9
1 1 .2
1 0 .5
9 .9
9 .2
8 .5
7 .9
7 .3
6 .7
6 .2
6 .3
7 .0
7 .2
7 .0
6 .7
6 .5
6 .2
5 .9
5 .6
5 .4
5 .1
4 .8
4 .6
4 .3

year

on
00

T a b le
(

Yea rs
x

to

1)
of

,

age

x +1

2 6 ,6 5 4
2 3 ,9 5 9
2 1 ,3 0 1
1 8 ,7 1 1
1 6 ,2 4 1
1 3 ,9 4 5
5 6 ,3 9 0

year

of

W o rk in g L i f e ,

M ales,

1960-

-C o n tin u e d

4 ,9 5 0
4 ,0 1 9
3 ,2 0 2
2 ,4 9 6
1 ,9 0 0
1 ,4 1 8
4 ,5 1 1

( B e t w e e n ye<sirs o f

o f age)

1 8 .6
1 6 .8
1 5 .0
1 3 .3
1 1 .7
1 0 .2
8 .0

Source:
B as ed on u n p u b l i s h e d d a t a w h ic h u p d a t e s
D e p a r t m e n t o f L a b o r , Manpower A d m i n i s t r a t i o n .




T a b le

( 2 )_________________ ( 3 )_____________( 4 )________________( 5 )_____________________ ( 6 )____________( 7 )______________ ( 8 )_____________ ( 9 )
, ( 10)
S e p a ra tio n s from the la b o r fo r c e
A v e r a g e number o f
N u m b e r l i v i n g o f 1 0 0 ,0 0 0 b o r n a l i v e
A c c e s s io n s to
( p e r 1 , 0 0 0 i n l a b r erm a o r c e )
o
fi
the la b o r fo rc e
n in g ye a rs o f
In la b o r fo rc e
Du e t o
Labor forc e
Du e t o a l l
Du e t o
In
P e rcent o f
(p e r 1 ,0 0 0 in
re tire m e n t
L ife
p a rtic ip a tio n
Causes
D eath
p o p u la tio n
p o p u la tio n )
p o p u la tio n
Num be r
o
1 0 0 0 Qg
1000 A x
1 0 0 0 Q®
1000 QJ
o
L wx
wx
Lx
ex
ewx
(In

79 y e a r s --------------8 0 y e a r s ............ 81 y e a r s ............ 82 y e a r s ............ 83 y e a r s --------------8 4 y e a r s --------------8 5 + y e a r s ------------

20.

-----

The L e n g th o f

1 8 8 .1
2 0 3 .3
2 2 0 .5
2 3 8 .8
2 5 3 .7
2 6 5 .2

W o rk in g L i f e

for

9 6 .5
1 0 5 .5
1 1 5 .2
1 2 4 .5
1 3 2 .9
1 4 2 .2

M a le s,

(A t

age)

1900- 6 0 ,

9 1 .6
9 7 .8
1 0 5 .3
1 1 4 .3
1 2 0 .8
1 2 3 .0

Manpower R e p o r t

b e g in n in g o f y e a r
o f age)

4 .1
3 .9
3 .7
3 .6
3 .6
3 .6
3 .7

6 .3
6 .0
5 .6
5 .3
5 .0
4 .7
4 .4
No.

8,

U .S .

APPRAISING THE ADEQ UACY OF SUPPLY IN IN D IV ID U A L OCCUPATIONS

The preceding chapters of this volume have been
concerned with future manpower requirements. In
planning occupational training programs, another factor
also should be considered— adequacy of supply. Only
the
by considering both demand and supply together can
questions be resolved as to whether or not programs
should be developed to expand training in a particular
occupation.
The supply of workers in a particular occupation is
not static, as a continuous flow of workers into and out
of an occupation takes place. Entrants take into account
those coming from the following sources: Persons enter­
ing directly after completion of a training program
designed to prepare them for that occupation; persons
entering directly after completion of a training program
designed to prepare persons for some other occupation;
persons other than students who are not in the civilian
labor force, including housewives, retired persons, and
those in the Armed Forces; persons employed in other
occupations; and immigrants. In a State or specific
locality, the migration of persons from other areas might
be especially significant. Occupational losses include an
estimate of the number of workers in the occupation
who will die or retire during the projection period, those
who will leave the civilian labor force for some other
reason, those who will transfer to other occupations, and
those who will emigrate. In the analysis of occupational
supply in a State or specific locality, migration to other
areas also must be considered.
The flow of manpower into and out of an occupation
is illustrated in chart 3.
Several approaches may be used to evaluate the
adequacy of supply in an occupation. One approach is to
compare the annual number of new entrants in an
occupation in recent periods with the number of new
workers that will be needed annually in a future period
for growth of employment requirements and for replace­
ments. This approach provides an indication as to how
much training activities must be expanded to meet
estimated or assumed manpower requirements in the
occupation. This type of analysis is illustrated in a recent
study of health manpower conducted by the Bureau of
Labor Statistics, in which the following analysis was
made in appraising the adequacy of the output of United
States dental schools. The analysis of manpower require­
ments resulting from employment growth and replace­
ment needs indicated an annual average need for about
5,300 new dentists between 1966 and 1975. Over the
1960-66 period, about 3,200 persons graduated from




dental schools each year. On the basis of follow-up
studies of new dental graduates, assumptions were made
that nearly all of the new dentists would stay in the
field61 and that very few other additions to the supply
during this 9-year period would take place, because
recent experience indicated only a small number of
dentists immigrate to the United States and very few
persons who qualify as dentists return to this occupation
from other fields or from outside of the labor force.62
The conclusions that might be reached by comparing the
current output of dental schools with the number of
new dentists needed each year would indicate that the
annual number of dental graduates would have to be
increased by about two-fifths, from about 3,200 to
about 5,300, in the 1966-75 period. In using this
approach for area manpower analysis, the effect of
migration into the area from other parts of the country
would have to be evaluated if migration out of the area
were included in the estimate of needs. (See Chapter 2
for a discussion of manpower requirements resulting
from migration.)
Another approach for determining whether or not, or
how much, training programs should be expanded is to
appraise current and recent supply-demand relationships
to estimate the incidence of “shortages.” Next, an
appraisal of the expected growth in requirements relative
to past employment increases is made. If, for example,
shortages have been and are occurring, and the growth
rate in employment requirements is accelerating, one
could assume reasonably that the rate of growth in
training also must be accelerated.
Another approach that may be useful for some
planning purposes is to estimate the supply that might
be available at a future target year under specific
assumptions about the future. The resulting estimate of
supply may be compared with target year projections of
requirements to illustrate target-year supply-demand
conditions, if steps are not taken through vocational
guidance or other methods to adjust supply to prospec­
tive demand.
61 This is not true in many occupations, as discussed later in
this Chapter.
62 In other fields such as physicians, immigrants have made
up a significant proportion of annual new entrants into the
occupation in recent periods. In an occupation such as teaching,
re-entrants into the labor force, especially women who had
withdrawn because of family responsibilities, make up a large
percent of additions to supply each year.

59

Chart 3
.

THE STREAM O MANPOWER INTO AND OUT O AN OCCUPATION
F
F
ENTRANTS

OCCUPATIONAL LOSSES

1/ Includes all workers who leave the civilian labor force or who emigrate.

The procedure which is followed in developing supply
projections consists of three basic steps. First, a current
supply estimate is established as the base of the
projection. Then, the annual number of entrants from all
sources is developed for the period that the projection is
to cover. Third, the base current supply is aggregated
with estimates of the annual number of entrants and
annual occupational losses are deducted.
The use of this method is limited, however, to a
relatively few occupations. In most occupations
estimates of annual new entrants cannot be developed,
primarily because information on numbers entering from
the various sources are not available. For many occupa­
tions, reliable information is not even available on how
workers generally become qualified for their jobs. For
example, among most craftsmen occupations— for
fields
which long periods of training are generally requiredonly a relatively small proportion are trained through
apprenticeship or other formal training programs for
60




which statistics on completions are available. Many
craftsmen learn their jobs by informal on-the-job train­
ing. Other persons, by moving from one semiskilled job
to another over a period of years, acquire knowledge and
skills sufficient to become skilled workers. Others begin
learning a skilled trade in vocational, trade, or technical
schools. Similarly, quantitative estimates of the supply
in an occupation such as typist are extremely difficult to
obtain, as thousands of people leam how to type each
year in schools or at home. The occupations for which
sufficient information is available to develop a projected
supply estimate are primarily those in the professional
and technical major occupational group that have a
specific training requirement. Most are in the scientific,
engineering, health, and teaching occupations.
This latter method is the most detailed of the
procedures to use in analyzing supply and the following
detailed description of the method of developing targetyear supply projections is presented to illustrate the

many concepts and factors that must be considered.
Understanding these concepts is also desirable for the
other types of supply analysis described above. To make
the description more realistic, national supply projec­
tions for engineers and several science fields are
presented.
Methods for Projecting Labor Supply in a Specific
Occupation

The inflows and outflows to an occupation is
illustrated in the following formula which indicates the
change in supply from period N to N+l:
Supply in .the . Current .
nf
,
future period, equals supply plus
Entrants during minus Occupation losses
.j
° . during period,
1.r .
period
(E+UE)n+1 = (e +ue)n +
TPs+TPo+0C+NLF+In^ n+1 (D+R+T+OL)n^ n+1
Where E = Employment
UE = Unemployed workers seeking work in
occupation
TPS = Entrants from training programs
designed to prepare workers specifi­
cally for the occupation
TP0 = Entrants from training programs de­
signed to prepare workers for other
occupations
OC = Entrants from other occupations
NLF = Entrants from persons not in the labor
force
I = Immigrants entering the occupation
D = Deaths
R = Retirements
T = Transfers
OL = Other losses (e.g. emigrants)
The following is a discussion of each of the steps
involved in using this formula to project supply in period
N+l; the inflows and outflows to engineering and
science fields will serve as an illustration.
Current Supply. Current supply, when defined as the
sum of the employed and unemployed, is different from
“potential supply,” which would include all workers
who could perform that type of work regardless of their
decision to work in another occupation or not to work
at all. Many people possess more than one skill and will




work at more than one occupation as circumstances
dictate or opportunities allow. This statement is particu­
larly true of occupations for which the skill require­
ments are relatively low; but, even at the highest levels
of skill and training, many individuals’ qualifications
permit them to shift from one occupation to another.
Thus, in the United States, even in the sciences, where
specific educational requirements are among the highest
in the occupational hierarchy, an appreciable amount of
shifting between occupations occurs.
In general, because of the multiplicity of skills
possessed by individuals, the number of persons quali­
fied for employment in any occupation will always be
larger than the number actually employed. Many of
those qualified, but not currently employed in an
occupation, are employed in other occupations, and
some are persons not economically active, e.g., retired
persons or women who have temporarily withdrawn
from the labor force to take care of their families. The
labor supply for an occupation, therefore, may be
viewed as elastic to some extent. When earnings or other
inducements for employment (e.g., location, education
paid for by employer, other fringe benefits, willingness
of employers to accept part-time workers, etc.) in the
occupation are high relative to those in other occupa­
tions or to past periods, some additional workers may be
drawn in; the opposite situation may take place when
earnings, opportunities, or other inducements are low.
Thus, some assumptions or indications of the demand
for the occupation, both overall and relative to compet­
ing occupations, are needed in developing a supply
projection for an occupation.
An estimate of the employment of engineers and
scientists in the United States in 1966 is shown in table
21. The estimates were developed independently for
engineers and scientists employed in six major sectors of
the economy—
private industry, colleges and universities,
Federal Government, State governments, local govern­
ments and nonprofit organizations. To the employment
estimates can be added an estimate of unemployed
scientists and engineers.63
New Entrants. College graduates from United States
schools will make up, by far, the largest portion of new
entrants into science and engineering positions in the
United States. The estimates of entrants are based on
three factors: (1) Projections of new college graduates in
each field; (2) estimates of the proportion of new college
graduates in each degree field who enter the field
6 3 Based on unpublished data from the Current Population
Survey. The unemployment rate for scientists and engineers was
estimated at about 1 percent in 1965.

61

T a b le 2 1 .

E s t im a t e d Employment o f S c i e n t i s t s and E n g in e e r s
O c c u p a t io n and Broad I n d u s t r y G roup, 1966
(In th ousands)

by

S c ie n tists
and
en g in ee rs

E n g in e e r s

T o tal

P h y sica l
sc ie n tists

A l l i n d u s t r i e s ---------

1 4 1 2 .2

9 9 6 .0

4 1 6 .7

2 1 3 .0

1 5 0 .6

5 1 .8

P r i v a t e i n d u s t r y --------------F e d e r a l g o v e r n m e n t ----------S t a t e g o v e r n m e n t s ------------L o c a l g o v e r n m e n t s ------------C o l l e g e s and
u n i v e r s i t i e s -------------------

1 0 1 2 .2
1 3 4 .1
5 1 .7
3 3 .8

8 1 6 .8
8 0 .1
3 6 .0
2 8 .0

1 9 5 .5
5 4 .0
1 5 .9
5 .7

1 3 7 .1
2 5 .5
2 .8
1 .4

2 7 .1
2 4 .5
1 2 .9
4 .2

2 9 .7
4 .1
.4
.1

18 0 .7

3 5 .1

1 4 5 .6

4 6 .2

8 1 .9

1 7 .5

In d u str y group

immediately after receiving their degree, and (3) esti­
mates of the proportion of these workers who are not
employed in the field at the time they received their
degrees.
Projections of graduates in individual fields of study
have been made by the Office of Education on the basis
of past trends in the proportion of the total school
population, for males and females separately, who are
enrolled or graduated in each course.64 These projec­
tions assume that the propensity of students to enroll in
the various courses will follow past trends and will not
be affected by changes in student vocational preferences
resulting from vocational guidance or the publication of
information on employment opportunities. They also
assume that schools will continue to expand their
facilities for teaching each course in line with past
trends, and will not take into account, any more than in
the past, projections of manpower needs in the various
occupations.
Not all graduates obtain jobs in the field of their
training. Some mathematics graduates, for example,
obtain positions in engineering, and conversely, some
persons with degrees in engineering follow a career in
mathematics. Many graduates become teachers in sec­
ondary schools, particularly in science and mathematics.
Some graduates with bachelor’s degrees begin profes­
sional training in other fields such as medicine or
business management. Some graduates with degrees in
science or engineering take jobs that do not directly use
their technical knowledge, e.g., clerical, sales, etc. Many
64 See Projections o f Educational Statistics to 1975-76,
1966 Edition, U.S. Department of Health, Education and
Welfare; OE-10030-66 for a detailed description of the method
used to project total enrollments in institutions of higher
education; first-time degree credit enrollment; bachelor and first
professional degrees (men and women separately), total and by
field.; and masters’ and doctors’ degrees, total and by field.

62




S c ie n tists
L ife
sc ie n tists

M athema­
ticia n s

others continue to attend school. Therefore, estimates of
the proportion of students in each degree field who will
enter the field in which they were trained immediately
after graduation are necessary. Such estimates can be
prepared by analyzing the type of work obtained by
college graduating classes in the past.65 Table 22 shows
illustrative estimates of the proportion of science and
engineering graduates by degree level entering their field
of training directly after receiving their degree.
New college graduates who enter the field for which
they were trained are not the only source of new college
graduates entering a particular science or engineering
specialty. Each year the supply of scientists is
augmented by some engineering graduates and the
supply of engineers by some science graduates. Further­
more, some new college graduates in fields other than
science or engineering, such as education, etc., enter
science and engineering occupations. Estimates of the
number of persons who will enter engineering and each
science occupation with degrees in fields other than in
the occupation that they enter can be developed also
from followup studies of college graduating classes,
which reveal the type of work obtained compared with
the college majors. For example, estimates in recent
years indicate that in the United States for every 100
persons with bachelor’s degrees in engineering who have
become engineers upon graduation, about 20 persons
enter engineering who had received college degrees in
other fields. Similarly, for every 100 persons with a
bachelor’s degree in chemistry who become chemists, 25
persons enter the field with college degrees in other
fields.
65
Two major follow-up studies in the United States provide
data in developing such estimates: Two Years A fter the College
D egree-W ork and Further Study Patterns, NSF 63-26, and

Education and E m ploym ent Specialization in 1952 o f June 1951
College Graduates, National Science Foundation, 1954.

T a b le 2 2 .

P r o p o r t i o n o f G r a d u a te s E n t e r i n g T h e i r F i e l d
o f T r a i n i n g , by D e g r e e L e v e l
BA
r e c ip ie n ts

F ie ld

MA
r e c ip ie n ts

PH.D.
r e c ip ie n ts

80
34
30
25

84

97
95
95
95
95
95
95

E n g i n e e r i n g -------------------------------------------------------C h e m i s t r y -----------------------------------------------------------P h y s i c s ---------------------------------------------------------------E a r th s c i e n c e ---------------------------------------------------L i f e s c i e n c e -----------------------------------------------------M a t h e m a t ic s -------------------------------------------------------P h y s i c a l s c i e n c e ( a l l o t h e r ) --------------------

2 0

19
15

6 8

61
52
51
47
35

S o u r c e : E s t i m a t e s b a s e d on d a t a p r e s e n t e d i n Two Y e a r s A f t e r t h e C o l l e g e D e g r e e - Work and
F u r t h e r S tu d y P a t t e r n s (NSF
The p r o p o r t i o n s f o r P h D D. r e c i p i e n t s a r e b a s e d on
a n a l y s i s o f s e v e r a l s t u d i e s o f t h e e d u c a t i o n a l makeup o f s c i e n c e and e n g i n e e r i n g p r o f e s s i o n s .
6 3

2 6 ) 0

A final step in preparing estimates of new entrants
with United States college degrees was to determine the
proportion of the graduates who were not employed
already in the occupation at the time they received their
degree. A large percentage of persons receiving their
master’s and Ph.D. degrees already have jobs in the field
for which they are studying while they attend school.
Available data indicate that about four-fifths of all new
Ph.D. graduates in engineering and all science fields,
except chemistry (60 percent), already were employed
in their field when they received their degrees66.
Similarly, estimates of new master’s degree recipients
who were employed in their fields at the time they
received their degrees ranged from one-half to four-fifths
among the various fields. Moreover, some new engineer­
ing bachelors’ degrees graduates already were employed
in engineering and received other degrees by attending
school parttime.
Other Entrants. In addition to new United States college
graduates, significant numbers of persons enter scientific
and engineering professions from other areas. Many
technicians and other persons without college degrees
are upgraded to science and engineering positions;
workers in other occupations who have college degrees
transfer to science or engineering; many persons transfer
from one science field to another; and others enter from
outside the labor force. In addition, immigrants add to
the supply of scientists and engineers. In any State or
specific area of the country, persons migrating from
other areas may be a major source of new entrants. One
might project the number of entrants from each of these
sources by examining past data and considering possible

future developments. The number of scientists and
engineers immigrating into the United States in past
years are available and might be projected, if changes in
immigration regulations and other factors are con­
sidered. Information on upgrading of technicians to
engineering or science jobs are available from follow-up
studies.67 Alternatively, one could develop estimates of
all new entrants, except new college graduates, as a
group, from past data.68
Losses to Supply. In projecting the supply of workers to
a future year, an estimate is needed of losses both from
supply in the base year and from new entrants, resulting
from deaths, retirements, persons leaving the labor force
for other reasons, transfers out of the occupation; and
for a specific area, persons migrating to other areas.
Several methods of estimating such losses are described
in Chapter 2.
6 7 Postcensal Study o f Professional and Technical Personnelpersons who were reported as technicians in the 1960 decennial

census were asked their occupation in 1962. A discussion of the
amount of upgrading to science and engineering occupations is
included in Technician Manpower: Requirements, Resources and
Training Needs. (BLS Bulletin 1512.)
68 For example, in engineering, to develop estimates of new
entrants other than new United States college graduates from
1950 to 1963, an analysis first was made of the growth in the
occupation over that period; of the total number of entrants
during that period with new United States college degrees; and
appropriate death, retirement, and transfer losses for the
1950-63 period to these groups. The sum of both workers
employed in 1950 still in the occupation in 1963 and 1950-63
entrants with college degrees still remaining in the occupation in
1963 was deducted from.the 1963 employment. The remainder
66
See D octorate Production o f United States Universitieswas estimated to be the total number in the occupation who
1920-1962, National Academy of Science, National Research
entered without United States college degrees over the 1950-63
Council publication 1142.
period and still were employed.




63

A p p e n d ix A. E s t im a t e d A nnual D e a th and R e t ir e m e n t R a t e s f o r
S e l e c t e d O c c u p a t i o n s , by S e x , f o r Em ployed W orkers
in th e U n ited S t a t e s 1/
O c c u p a t io n s
E m ploym ent, t o t a l P r o f e s s i o n a l , t e c h n i c a l , and k i n d r e d ---------------------------------E n g i n e e r s , t e c h n i c a l --------------------------------------------------------------E n g i n e e r s , a e r o n a u t i c a l ---------------------------------------------------E n g i n e e r s , c h e m i c a l ------------------------------------------------------------E n g i n e e r s , c i v i l ------------------------------------------------------------------E n g i n e e r s , e l e c t r i c a l --------------------------------------------------------E n g i n e e r s , i n d u s t r i a l --------------------------------------------------------E n g i n e e r s , m e c h a n i c a l -------------------------------------------------------E n g i n e e r s , m e t a l l u r g i c a l , e t c . - -----------------------------------E n g i n e e r s , m i n i n g ----------------------------------------------------------------O th e r e n g i n e e r s , t e c h n i c a l ---------------------------------------------N a t u r a l s c i e n t i s t s ------------------------------------------------------------------C h e m is t -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------A g r i c u l t u r a l s c i e n t i s t s ---------------------------------------------------B i o l o g i c a l s c i e n t i s t s -------------------------------------------------------G e o l o g i s t s and g e o p h y s i c i s t s -----------------------------------------M a t h e m a t ic ia n s ----------------------------------------------------------------------P h y s i c i s t s ------------------------------------------------------------------------------O th e r n a t u r a l s c i e n t i s t s -------------------------------------------------T e c h n i c i a n s , e x c l u d i n g m e d i c a l - d e n t a l --------------------------T e c h n i c i a n s , e l e c t r i c a l and e l e c t r o n i c --------------------T e c h n i c i a n s , o t h e r e n g i n e e r i n g and p h y s i c a l
s c i e n t i s t s --------------------------------------------------------------------------D r a f t s m e n --------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------S u r v e y o r s --------------------------------------------------------------------------------T e c h n i c i a n s , o t h e r ------------------- ------------------------------------------M e d ic a l and o t h e r h e a l t h w o r k e r s -------------------------------------D i e t i t i a n s and n u t r i t i o n i s t s ------------------------------------------N u r s e s , p r o f e s s i o n a l ----------------------------------------------------------P h a r m a c i s t s ---------------------------------------------------------------------------P s y c h o l o g i s t s ------------------------------------------------------------------------T e c h n i c i a n s , m e d i c a l and d e n t a l -----------------------------------V e t e r i n a r i a n s -------------------------------------------------------------------------T e a c h e r s ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------T e a c h e r s , e le m e n t a r y ----------------------------------------------------------T e a c h e r s , s e c o n d a r y -------------------------------------------------------------T e a c h e r s , o t h e r e x c e p t c o l l e g e -------------------------------------T e a c h e r s , c o l l e g e ----------------------------------------------------------------S o c i a l s c i e n t i s t s ---------------------------------------------------------------------E c o n o m i s t s -------------------------------------------------------------------------------S t a t i s t i c i a n s and a c t u a r i e s --------------------------------------------O th e r s o c i a l s c i e n t i s t s ----------------------------------------------------O th e r p r o f e s s i o n a l , t e c h n i c a l , and k i n d r e d -----------------A c c o u n t a n t s and a u d i t o r s --------------------------------------------------A r c h i t e c t s -------------------------------------------------------------------------------C le r g y m e n ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------D e s i g n e r s , e x c e p t d e s i g n d r a f t s m e n ------------------------------E d i t o r s and r e p o r t e r s --------------------------------------------------------L aw yers and j u d g e s ---------------------------------------------------------------L i b r a r i a n s -------------------------------------------------------------------------------P e r s o n n e l and l a b o r r e l a t i o n s w o r k e r s -----------------------P h o t o g r a p h e r s ------------------------------------------------------------------------S o c i a l and w e l f a r e w o r k e r s ---------------------------------------------P r o f e s s i o n a l and t e c h n i c a l w o r k e r s , n o t e l s e w h e r e
c l a s s i f i e d --------------------------------------------------------------------------S e e f o o t n o t e s a t end o f t a b l e .

64




M ale

F em a le 2 /

2 .0

4 08

1 .6
1 .3
0 .7
0 .9
1 .9
1 .0
1 .1
1 .4
1 .2
1 .4
1 .3
1 .0
1 .1
1 .5
1 .0
0 .9
0 .4
0 .7
0 .9
0 .7
0 .6

4 .9

0 .8
0 .8
1 .2

1 .1
2 .5
1 .3

2 .8
0 .8
1 .1
2 .0
1 .3
1 .1
1 .3
1 .5
1 .7
1 .4
1 .5
1 .6
1 .4
1 .3
1 .9
2 .4
2 .6
1 .5
1 .9
2 .9
1 .3
1 .5
1 .6
1 .7
1 .3

4 .9
4 .8
4 .6
4 .5
5 .2
4 .8
4 .8
4 .8
4 .8
4 .9

4 .9
4 .4
4 .9
5 .3
3 .9
4 .3
4 .7
4 .9

A p p en d ix A . E s tim a te d A nnual D ea th and R e tir e m e n t R a te s f o r
S e le c t e d O c c u p a t io n s , by S e x , f o r E m ployed W orkers
in th e U n ite d S t a t e s _ ! / - -C o n tin u e d
O c c u p a tio n s
M a n a g ers, o f f i c i a l s , and p r o p r ie t o r s ----------------------C o n d u c to r s , r a i l r o a d ----------------------------------------------C r e d itm e n ---------------------------------------------------------------------O f f i c e r s , p i l o t s , e n g in e e r s , s h i p ---------------------P u r c h a s in g a g e n t s ----------------------------------------------------P o s tm a s te r s and a s s i s t a n t s ----------------------------------O th er m a n a g e r s, o f f i c i a l s , and p r o p r ie t o r s - C l e r i c a l and k in d r e d w o r k e r s -------------------------------------S te n o g r a p h e r s , t y p i s t s , and s e c r e t a r i e s -----------O f f i c e m a ch in e o p e r a t o r s ------------------------------------------O th er c l e r i c a l and k in d r e d w o r k e r s ---------------------B o o k k e e p e r s, t o t a l --------------------------------------------------Bank t e l l e r s ---------------------------------------------------------------C a s h ie r s -----------------------------------------------------------------------M ail c a r r i e r s -------------------------------------------------------------p a y r o ll and tim e k e e p in g c l e r k s --------------------------P o s t a l c l e r k s -------------------------------------------------------------S h ip p in g and r e c e i v in g c l e r k s ----------------------------T e le p h o n e o p e r a t o r s ------------------------------------------------C l e r i c a l and k in d r e d w o r k e r s , n o t e ls e w h e r e
c l a s s i f i e d ----------------------------------------------------------—
S a le s w o r k e r s ---------------------------------------------------------------------In s u r a n c e a g e n t s and b r o k e r s ----------------------------------R e a l e s t a t e a g e n ts and b r o k e r s ------------------------------O th er s a l e s w o r k e r s , n o t e ls e w h e r e c l a s s i f i e d
C r a ftsm e n , fo r e m e n , and k in d r e d w o r k e r s ---------------C o n s t r u c tio n c r a f ts m e n ----------------------------------------------C a r p e n te r s -------------------------------------------------------------------B r ic k m a so n s, s t o n e , and t i l e s e t t e r s -------------C em ent and c o n c r e t e f i n i s h e r s ----------------------------E l e c t r i c i a n s ------------------------------------------- ------------------E x c a v a tin g , g r a d in g m a ch in e o p e r a t o r s ----------P a in t e r s and p a p e r h a n g e r s ----------------- -----------------P l a s t e r e r s ------------------------------------------------------------------P lu m b ers and p i p e f i t t e r s -------------------------------------F orem en , n o t e ls e w h e r e c l a s s i f i e d -----------------------M eta lw o rk in g c r a f ts m e n , e x c e p t m e c h a n ic s --------M a c h in is t s -----------------------------------------------------------------B la c k s m it h s , f o r g e hammermen-----------------------------B o ile r m a k e r s --------------------------------------------------------------H ea t t r e a t e r s , a n n e a le r s , e t c . ------------------------M il lw r ig h t s ----------------------------------------------------------------M o ld e r s, m e ta l ( e x c e p t c o r e m a k e r s )----------------P a tte r n m a k e r s , m e ta l and w ood---------------------------R o l le r s and r o l l h a n d s -----------------------------------------S h e e t m e ta l w o r k e rs ( t i n s m i t h s ) ----------------------T o o l- a n d - d ie m a k er s-----------------------------------------------M ec h a n ics and r e p a ir m e n -----------------------------------------------A i r - c o n d i t io n in g , h e a t i n g , and r e f r i g e r a t i o n
m e c h a n ic s --------------------------------------------------------------------A ir p la n e m e c h a n ic s -----------------------------------------------------M otor v e h i c l e s m e c h a n ic s -----------------------------------------O f f i c e m a ch in e m e c h a n ic s -----------------------------------------R ad io and t e l e v i s i o n m e c h a n ic s -----------------------------R a ilr o a d and c a r sh op m e c h a n ic s ....................... .............
O th er m e c h a n ic s and r e p a ir m e n --------------------------------

M ale

2.5
3 08

F em ale 2 /
4 .7

1 .6
2 .1
1 .8

3.8
2 .1
1 .8

0 .6

1.9
2.3
1.4

1 .6
1 .6
2 .0

1.5
1.5
1.7
1.9

2 .0
2 .0

4.1
2 .0
1.9
2 .0
2.3
1.5
1.5
1 .6
1.3
2.5
1.7
1 .8
1.9
1.9
2.0
3.4

4 .9
5 .1
5 .1
4 .8
4 .5
4 .6
4 .5
4 .1
4 .3
4 .2
4 .0
5 .0
4 .8
4 .7
5 .3
4 .7
4 .3

3 .8

2.1
1 .8

1.9

1 .6
2 .0
1 .8

1.5
1 .8
1.6
1.3
1.0
1.3
0.9
0.9
2.7
2 .0

S ee f o o t n o t e s a t end o f t a b l e .




65

A p p en d ix A. E s tim a te d A nnual D ea th and R e tir e m e n t R a te s f o r
S e le c t e d O c c u p a t io n s , by S e x , f o r E m ployed W orkers
i«n th e U n ite d S t a t e s 1 / - -C o n tin u e d
O c c u p a tio n s
P r i n t in g t r a d e s c r a f ts m e n --------------------------------- --------C o m p o sito r s and t y p e s e t t e r s ----------------------------------E le c t r o t y p e r s and s t e r e o t y p e r s ----------------------------E n g r a v e r s , e x c e p t p h o to e n g r a v e r s -----------------------P h o to e n g r a v e r s and l it h o g r a p h e r s -----------------------P re ssm e n and p l a t e p r i n t e r s ----------------------------------T r a n s p o r ta tio n and p u b lic u t i l i t y c r a f ts m e n -----L in e and s e r v ic e m e n , t e le p h o n e , p o w er-------------L o c o m o tiv e e n g in e e r s ------------------------------------------------L o c o m o tiv e fir e m e n ---------------------------------------------------O th er c r a fts m e n and k in d r e d w o r k e r s --------------------B a k e r s --------------- -------------------------------------------------------------C a b in e tm a k e r s---------------------------------------------------------------C ranem en, d e r r ic k m e n , h o is tm e n ---------------------------G l a z i e r s ------------------------------------------------------------------------J e w e le r s and w a tch m a k e rs---------------------------------------Loom f i x e r s ------------------------------------------------------------------M i l l e r s ---------------------------------------------------------------------------O p t i c i a n s , le n s g r in d e r s , e t c . ----------------------------S t a t io n a r y e n g in e e r s ------------------------------------------------I n s p e c t o r s , lo g and lu m b er--------------- --------------------I n s p e c t o r s , o t h e r -------------------------------------------------------U p h o ls t e r e r s -----------------------------------------------------------------C r a ftsm en and k in d r e d w o r k e r s , n o t e ls e w h e r e
c l a s s i f i e d -----------------------------------------------------------------O p e r a tiv e s and k in d r e d w o r k e r s --------------------------------D r iv e r s and d e liv e r y m e n -----------------------------------------D r iv e r s , b u s , tr u c k , t r a c t o r ---------------------------D e liv e r y m e n , r o u te m e n , cab d r i v e r s --------------S e le c t e d t r a n s p o r t a t io n and p u b lic u t i l i t y
o p e r a t o r s ------------------------------------------------------------------Brakem en and sw itc h m e n , r a i l r o a d ------------------P ow er s t a t i o n o p e r a t o r s -------------------------------------S a i lo r s and d e ck h a n d s ---------------------------------------S e m is k ille d m e ta lw o r k in g o c c u p a t io n s --------------A s s e m b le r s -----------------------------------------------------------------------F u rn a cem en , s m e lt e r e r s , p o w e r s ------------------------------H e a t e r s , m e t a l---------------------------------------------------------------C h e c k e r s , e x a m in e r s , e t c . ----------------------------------------W e ld e r s-----------------------------------------------------------------------------S e m is k ille d t e x t i l e o c c u p a t io n s --------------------------------K n it t e r s , l o o p e r s , and t o p p e r s -----------------------------S p in n e r s , t e x t i l e --------------------------------------------------------W ea v ers, t e x t i l e ----------------------------------------------------------S ew ers and s t i t c h e r s m a n u fa c tu r in g --------------------O th er o p e r a t iv e s and k in d r e d w o r k e r s --------------------A t t e n d a n t s , a u to m o b ile p a r k -----------------------------------B l a s t e r s and pow derm en---------------------------------------------L aundry and d ry c le a n in g -----------------------------------------M eat c u t t e r s , e x c e p t m e a tp a c k in g ------------------------O p e r a tiv e s and k in d r e d w o r k e r s , n o t e ls e w h e r e
c l a s s i f i e d -----------------------------------------------------------------S e r v ic e w o r k e r s --------------------------------------------------------------------P r i v a t e h o u se h o ld w o r k e r s -------------------------------------------P r o t e c t i v e s e r v i c e w o r k e r s -----------------------------------------P o lic e m e n , d e t e c t i v e , e t c . -------------------------------------G u a rd s, w atch m en , d o o r k e e p e r s -------------------------------S ee f o o t n o t e s a t end o f t a b l e .
66




M ale

F em ale 2 /

1 .8

1.9

2 .0
2 .2

1.5
1.5
2.5
0.9
4.4
1.3
1 .8
2 .1
2 .6

1.7
1 .2
2.7
1.7
2 .2
1.7
2 .2
2 .1

2.4
1.7
1.5
1.5
1.3
1 .2
1.4
1.7

4.5
4.7
4.9
3.7
3.2
5.0
4.0
5.0
4.1
3.6
4.3

1 .8
2 .0

1.4
1.4
1.3
1 .6
2.4

1 .6
1 .2
2 .1
1 .2

1.9
1.7
2.9
1.4
1 .0
1.5
2 .1
2 .0

1.5
2.7
3.7
2 .6
1.4
4.3

3.7
3.7
4.2
4.4
3.4
3.6
4.3
4.4
4.4
3.9
4.0
4.7
5.7

A p p e n d ix A . E s t im a te d A n n u al D e a th and R e tir e m e n t R a t e s f o r
S e l e c t e d O c c u p a t io n s , by S e x , f o r E m ployed W ork ers
in th e U n ite d S t a t e s l /- - C o n t in u e d
O c c u p a tio n s
W a it e r s , c o o k s , and b a r t e n d e r s --------- ------------ -------------------B a r t e n d e r s --------------------------------------------------------------------------------C o o k s, e x c e p t p r i v a t e h o u s e h o ld -----------------------------------C o u n te r and f o u n t a in w o r k e r s ------------------------------------------W a ite r s and w a i t r e s s e s ------------------------------------------------------O th e r s e r v i c e w o r k e r s -------------------------------------------------------------A tte n d a n ts , ‘ h o s p i t a l and o t h e r i n s t i t u t i o n s ----------Charwom en and c l e a n e r s -------------------------------------------------------J a n i t o r s and s e x t o n s -----------------------------------------------------------N u r s e s , p r a c t i c a l -----------------------------------------------------------------O th e r s e r v i c e w o r k e r s , n o t e ls e w h e r e c l a s s i f i e d - L a b o r e r s , e x c e p t fa r m -----------------------------------------------------------------F arm ers and farm w o r k e r s ------------------------------------------------------------

M ale
2 .1

2 .5
2 .2

1 .3
1 .9

2 .0

1 .7
2 .4
4 .0
2 .9
1 .7
1 .7
1 .7

F em a le 2 /
4 .4
3 .4
4 .5
4 .7
4 .3
5 .0
4 .7
5 .2
5 .3
5 .6
5 .2
4 .7
4 .7

.1/ B a sed on 1 9 6 0 la b o r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s and a g e d i s t r i b u t i o n s . T h is t a b l e i s th e
N a t io n a l d e a th and r e t ir e m e n t r a t e s f o r m a le s and f e m a le s f o r th e o c c u p a t io n s a p p e a r in g in t h e
m a tr ix and d o e s n o t ta k e i n t o a c c o u n t th e p e c u l i a r i t i e s o f th e w o r k in g l i f e p a t t e r n s a s s o c i a t e d
w ith th e v a r i o u s o c c u p a t i o n s .
27 N o t e , f o r f e m a l e s , th e s e p a r a t io n r a t e i s a g r o s s r a t e . I f fe m a le s r e t u r n in g t o th e
la b o r f o r c e w e re d e d u c te d from t h i s g r o s s r a t e , th e n e t s e p a r a t io n r a t e w o u ld be c o n s id e r a b ly
lo w e r . F o r e x a m p le , a s e x p la in e d in C h a p te r 2 , th e n e t s e p a r a t io n r a t e w o u ld be a b o u t 3 . 0
p e r c e n t.




67

Appendix B. Projections of the Population and Labor
Force for States and Regions, by Age and Color1

The total resident labor force of the United States is
expected to increase by more than 15 million persons
from 1960 to 1970, and again by a similar amount from
1970 to 1980, and to rise to just over 100 million in
1980. This projected growth rate will vary considerably
by geographic location.
On a regional basis, the West is expected to show the
greatest increase during the present decade— percent.
36
The other regions will expand at somewhat smaller rates:
25 percent in the South, 17 percent in the North Central
region, and 16 percent in the Northeast. These regional
variations are attributable in large part to the expected
continuation of differences in economic opportunity
which affect the flow of population.
The projections of the labor force by State which are
presented here are consistent with the projections of the
Nation’s total labor force published by the Bureau of
Labor Statistics,2 except for the exclusion of Armed
Forces stationed outside the country. Data for non­
whites are shown for 24 States and the District of
Columbia.3 The population projections on which these
labor force projections are based were prepared by the
Bureau of the Census and are consistent with the Series
II-B projections, Current Population Reports, “Illustra­
tive Projections of the Population of States: 1970 to
1980,” Series P-25, No. 326.4 This series of State labor
force projections is only one of a possible set that could
be developed on the basis of alternative assumptions in
regard to interstate migration of population. The effect
of such an alternative is discussed in the later section on
reliability.
1 From “Labor Force Projections, 1970 and 1980,”

M onthly Labor Review, October 1966, U.S. Department of

Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
2 “Labor Force Projections for 1970-80,” M onthly Labor
Review, February 1965, pp. 129-140, reprinted as Special Labor
Force Report No. 49, and “Labor Force Projections by Color,
1970-80,” M onthly Labor Review, September 1966, reprinted as
Special Labor Force Report No. 73.
3 Detail by color is not shown for the 26 States whose
nonwhite population age 14 years and over was less than
100,000 in 1960.
4 These State projections are themselves consistent with
Series B of the national population which were published in
report Series P-25, No. 286. Series II-B refers to population
Series B and migration Series II. In migration Series II, it is
assumed that State migration differentials will gradually be
reduced to zero in about 50 years, i.e., the number of persons
migrating from a State will eventually be offset by an equal
number of persons moving into the State.
68




The Present Decade
Between 1960 and 1970, the total resident labor
force of the United States is expected to grow by 22
percent— 69.9 million to 85.3 million. (See table 1.
from
Detailed projections by State are shown in table 2, pp.
70-96.)5 This increase of 15.4 million persons is
very likely to be distributed unevenly both by region
and by age, for two reasons: The continuation of past
economic advantages of some regions, for instance, the
West, and the rapid increase in the number of young
persons of working age, which will be more important in
this period than in the 1970-80 decade.
Six of the States in the West are expected to show
increases of 30 percent or more: Nevada, Arizona, Utah,
California, Colorado, and New Mexico. (See table 3.)
Two of these, Nevada and Arizona, may have increases
of more than 50 percent. In the South, Florida is
expected to increase about 42 percent— only State
the
outside of the West with a gain greatly in excess of the
national average.
Maryland, Idaho, Georgia, Arkansas, Delaware, Missis­
sippi, Louisiana, Virginia, and Texas will have a pro­
jected growth of 25 percent or more. Washington, New
Jersey, North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Wyoming
will experience gains equal to the national average of 22
percent.
At the lower end of the scale, 25 States will have
growth rates ranging from 10 percent to 21 percent.
Only the District of Columbia will be likely to show a
gain of less than 10 percent. Since the District is a small
and strictly urban area, however, its growth trends
cannot be compared with those of the States; growth of
the metropolitan area takes place outside the central
city.
For the Nation as a whole, the number of young
workers, 14 to 24 years old, rises very rapidly during the
present decade, while the number of workers age 25 and
over increases much less. The increase in younger
workers reflects chiefly the high birth rate during the
5 For the 1960 data, the source is the decennial census, Apr.
1, 1960. The projected data for 1970 and 1980, on the other
hand, are consistent with annual average levels from the monthly
labor force (household) survey and July 1 population estimates
from the Bureau of the Census. For this reason, changes during
the 1960-70 decade are not strictly comparable with changes
during the 1970-80 decade. Nevertheless, such comparisons
indicate the broad outlines of the differences among States in
projected growth during the two decades.

Table 1. Population and Labor Force (Excluding Armed Forces Overseas), by age and Color, United States
and by Region, 1960 and Projected 1970 and 1980 1
[Numbers inthousands]
Population (July 1)
Color, region, and age

1960
(April)

All Classes
Total, United States
14 years and over_____________________________ 126,277
14 to 24 years_____________________________ 26,839
25 to 54 years____ _________________________ 67,523
55 years and over_____ ____________________ 31,915
Northeast
14 years and over_____________________________ 32,561
14 to 24 years_____ ________________________ 6,149
25 to 54 years____ _________________________ 17,606
55 years and over___ ______________ _______ 8,806
North Central
14 years and over............................................ .............. 36,157
14 to 24 years_____________ ________________ 7,460
25 to 54 years______ _______________________ 19,096
55 years and over_____ ____________________
9,602
South
14 years and over____ ________ ______________
37,948
14 to 24 years....... ............._................................... 8,973
25 to 54 years____ ______________________
20,076
55 years and over_______________ __________ 8,900
West
14 years and over........................................................... 19,610
14 to 24 years_________________ ____________ 4,257
25 to 54 years___ _________ ________ _______ 10,745
55 years and over____ _____________________ 4,607
N onwhite
Total, United States
14 years and over.............. ........................... ................ 13,154
14 to 24 years____ _________________________ 3,297
25 to 54 years_____ ___________________ ____ 7,182
55 years and over___ ______________________
2,675
Northeast
14 years and over....... ......... ................... .................... 2,163
14 to 24 years______________________ _____
475
25 to 54 years_________________________ ____ 1,291
55 years and over........................ ...........................
398
North Central
14 years and over_________ _________ __________ 2,340
14 to 24 years_____ ________________________
521
25 to 54 years....... ......... ............................ ............ 1,363
55 years and over_____________ ____________
457
South
14 years and over.................................... ....................
7,209
14 to 24 years....... .................................................. 1,948
25 to 54 years_________________ ___________
3,679
55 years and over____ _______________ ______ 1,582
West
14 years and over....... ..................................................
1,442
14 to 24 years....... .................................................
353
850
25 to 54 years................................ .........................
55 years and over_____ _____________ ______
239
1

1970

1980

Labor force (annual average)

Percent change
1960-70

1970-80

1960
(April)

1970

1980

Percent change
1960-70

1970-80

148,944
39,625
71,249
38,070

173,161
45,369
83,650
44,142

18.0
47.6
5.5
19.3

16.3
14.5
17.4
15.9

69,877
12,009
45,573
12,295

85,257
19,934
50,472
14,852

100,670
23,652
60,062
16,956

22.0
66.0
10.7
20.8

18.1
18.6
19.0
14.2

37,041
8,860
17,905
10,276

41,670
10,052
19,933
11,586

13.8
44.1
1.7
16.7

12.2
13.5
11.3
12.7

18,260
2,775
11,951
3,535

21,150
4,335
12,658
4,157

23,762
5,051
14,089
4,622

15.8
56.2
5.9
17.6

12.3
16.5
11.3
11.2

40,675
10,726
19,241
10,707

46,559
12,164
22,444
11,950

12.5
43.8
.8
11.5

14.5
13.4
16.6
11.6

20,047
3,455
12,805
3,787

23,399
5,523
13,576
4,301

27,362
6,534
16,042
4,786

16.7
59.9
6.0
13.6

16.9
18.3
18.2
11.3

45,702
12,963
21,599
11,140

53,393
14,592
25,671
13,129

20.4
44.5
7.6
25.2

16.8
12.6
18.9
17.9

20,398
3,770
13,436
3,192

25,569
6,189
15,338
4,043

30,514
7,133
18,744
4,637

25.4
64.2
14.2
26.7

19.3
15.3
22.2
14.7

25,526
7,074
12,505
5,947

31,640
8,560
15,603
7,476

30.2
66.2
16.4
29.1

24.0
21.0
24.8
25.7

11,172
2,009
7,382
1,781

15,139
3,888
8,901
2,351

19,032
4,934
11,187
2,911

35.5
93.5
20.6
32.0

25.7
26.9
25.7
23.8

16,384
5,228
7,934
3,223

20,638
6,777
10,013
3,849

24.6
58.6
10.5
20.5

26.0
29.6
26.2
19.4

7,399
1,311
5,008
1,080

9,671
2,493
5,837
1,341

12,219
3,335
7,337
1,547

30.7
90.2
16.6
24.2

26.3
33.8
25.7
15.4

2,791
769
1,497
525

3,596
1,098
1,808
691

29.0
61.9
16.0
31.9

28.8
42.8
20.8
31.6

1,312
216
913
183

1,748
395
1,110
244

2,222
585
1,322
315

33.2
82.9
21.6
33.3

27.1
48.1
19.1
29.1

2,930
907
1,459
565

3,803
1,264
1,829
710

25.2
74.1
7.0
23.6

29.8
39.4
25.4
25.7

1,310
203
922
184

1,699
420
1,049
231

2,243
637
1,317
29Q

29.7
106.9
13.8
25.5

32.0
51.7
25.5
25.5

8,704
2,932
3,968
1,804

10,585
3,523
5,067
1,996

20.7
50.5
7.9
14.0

21.6
20.2
27.7
10.6

3,928
747
2,574
607

5,025
1,365
2,947
713

6,155
1,643
3,774
738

27.9
82.7
14.5
17.5

22.5
20.4
28.1
3.5

1,960
620
1,010
330

2,654
892
1,309
452

35.9
75.6
18.8
38.1

35.4
43.9
29.6
37.0

850
145
599
106

1,199
313
732
153

1,599
470
925
205

41.1
115.9
22.2
44.3

33.4
50.2
26.4
34.0

See text footnote 4.




69

T a b l e 2. P o pu l a t io n a n d .l a b o r F o rce (E x c l u d in g A rm ed F o rces O v e r s e a s ), b y A g e , C olor ,1 a n d S e x , fo r
R e g io n s a n d S t a t e s , 1960 a n d P r o jected 1970 a n d 1980
[Numbers in thousands]
Age, color, and sex

Population (July 1)
1960
(April 1)

All Classes
Both sexes, 14 and over.................. 126,277
Male
Total, 14 and over........................... 61,315
14-24 years................................. 13,385
25-64 years............................... 33,052
55 years and over...................... 14,878
Female
Total, 14 and over.......................... 64,961
14-24 years................................ 13,454
25-54 years................................. 34,471
55 years and over...................... 17,037
N onwhite
Male
Total, 14 and over........................... 6,279
14-24 years................................. 1,607
25-54 years................................ 3,389
55 years and over.....................
1,283
Female
Total, 14 and over........................... 6,874
14-24 years................................. 1,689
25-54 years................................. 3.793
55 years and over...................... 1,392
A ll Classes
Both sexes, 14 and over....... ..........
Male
Total, 14 and over___ _________
14-24 years________________
25-54 years______ _________
55 years and over.................
Female
Total, 14 and over... _________
14-24 years________________
25-54 years________________
55 years and over____ ______
N onwhite
Male
Total, 14 and over_____________
14r-24 years________________
25-54 years________________
55 years and over__________
Female
Total, 14 and over___ ________
14-24 years...........
25-54 years___________ _
55 years and over..............
See footnotes at end of table.

70




1970

1980

Labor force (annual average)
1960
(April 1)

1970

1980

Labor force partici­
pation rates (percent)
1960

Percent change
1960-70

1970-80

1970

1980 Popu­ Labor Popu­ Labor
lation force lation force

United States
148,944

173,161

69,877

85,257

100,670

55.3

57.2

58.1

18.0

22.0

16.3

18.1

71,795
19,846
34,807
17,143

83r380
22,786
41,212
19,382

47,468
7,643
31,296
8,528

55,105
12,264
33,348
9,494

64,246
14,443
39,524
10,279

77.4
57.1
94.7
57.3

76.8
61.8
95.8
55.4

77.1
63.4
95.9
53.0

17.1
48.3
5.3
15.2

16.1
60.5
6.6
11.3

16.1
14.8
18.4
13.1

16.6
17.8
18.5
8.3

77,148
19,779
36,442
20,927

89,781
22,583
42,438
24,760

22,410
4.366
14,277
3,767

30,152
7,670
17,124
5,358

36,424
9,209
20,538
6,677

34.5
32.5
41.4
22.1

39.1
38.8
47.0
25.6

40.6
40.8
48.4
27.0

18.8
47.0
5.7
22.8

34.5
75.7
19.9
42.2

16.4
14.2
16.5
18.3

20.8
20.1
19.9
24.6

7,769
2,549
3,729
1.490

9,791
3,315
4,771
1,705

4,528
822
3,005
700

5,761
1,519
3,432
810

7,333
2,010
4,424
899

72.1
51.2
88.7
54.6

74.2
59.6
92.0
54.4

74.9
60.6
92.7
52.7

23.7
58.6
10.0
16.1

27.2
84.7
14.2
15.7

26.0
30.0
27.9
14.4

27.3
32.3
28.9
11.0

8,616
2,678
4,204
1,733

10,847
3,461
5,242
2,144

2,872
489
2,002
380

3,910
974
2,405
531

4,886
1,325
2,913
648

41.8
28.9
52.8
27.3

45.4
36.4
57.2
30.6

45.0
38.3
55.6
30.2

25.3
58.6
10.8
24.5

36.2
99.2
20.1
39.6

25.9
29.2
24.7
23.7

25.0
36.0
21.1
22.0

Northeast
32, 561

37,041

41, 570

18,260

21,150

23,762

56.1

57.1

57.2

13.8

15.8

12.2

12.4

15,547
3,005
8,509
4,034

17, 575
4,344
8,688
4,543

19,754
4,957
9,780
5,017

12,122
1,616
8,099
2,406

13,501
2,526
8,362
2,614

15,248
3,040
9,436
2,772

78.0
53.8
95.2
59.7

76.8
58.1
96.2
57.5

77.2
61.3
96.5
55.3

13.0
44.6
2.1
12.6

11.4
56.3
3.2
8.6

12.4
14.1
12.6
10.4

12.9
20.4
12.9
6.1

17, 014
3,144
9,097
4.773

19,466
4,517
9,217
5,733

21,816
5,095
10,152
6,569

6,138
1,158
3,851
1,128

7,649
1,809
4,296
1,544

8,514
2,011
4,653
1,850

36.1
36.8
42.3
23.6

39.3
40.1
46.6
26.9

39.0
39.5
45.8
28.2

14.4
43.7
1.3
20.1

24.6
56.2
11.5
36.8

12.1
12.8
10.2
14.6

11.3
11.2
8.3
19.8

1,006
220
598
188

1,277
360
682
236

1,645
523
824
298

762
119
530
113

990
218
633
139

1,285
326
782
178

75.8
54.1
88.8
59.9

77.5
60.5
92.8
59.1

78.1
62.3
94.9
59.7

27.0
63.7
14.1
25.1

29.8
82.8
19.3
23.3

28.8
45.3
20.8
26.6

29.9
49.7
23.5
27.9

1,157
255
693
209

1, 514
409
815
289

1,951
574
984
392

549
96
383
70

759
177
477
105

936
259
540
137

47.5
37.9
55.2
33.5

50.1
43.3
58.5
36.1

48.0
45.1
54.9
34.9

30.8
60.6
17.6
38.3

38.1
83.8
24.6
49.2

28.9
40.3
20.7
35.5

23.4
46.2
13.3
30.8

T able 2. P opulation and Labor F orce (E xcluding Armed F orces Overseas), by A ge, Color,1 and Sex, for
R egions and States, 1960 and P rojected 1970 and 1980—Continued
[Numbers iu thousands]
Population (July 1)

Labor force (annual-average)

Age, color, and sex
1960
(April 1)

1970

1980

1960
(April 1)

1970

1980

Labor force partici­
pation rates (percent)
1960

1970

Percent change
1960-70

1970-80

1980 Popu­ Labor Popu­ Labor
lation force lation force

North Central
A ll C lasses

Both sexes, 14 and over..................

36,157

40,675

46, 559

20,047

23,399

27,362

55.4

57.5

58.8

12.5

Total, 14 and over......... .. .......
14-24 years...... ..........................
25-54 years................................
55 years and over.....................

17,588
3,651
9,407
4,531

19, 684
5,274
9, 546
4,864

22, 574
6,008
11,263
5,303

13,786
2,144
8,982
2,660

15,250
3,308
9,201
2,742

17,650
3,923
10,848
2,879

78.4
58.7
95.5
58.7

77.5
62.7
96.4
56.4

78.2
65.3
96.3
54.3

11.9
44.5
1.5
7.4

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years______ _________
25-54 years.................................
55 years and over___ ______
N onwph ^s

18,569
3,809
9,688
5,071

20,991
5, 453
9, 695
5, 844

23,985
6,157
11,181
6, 647

6,261
1,312
3, 822
1,127

8,149
2,215
4,375
1,559

9,712
2,611
5,194
1,907

33.7
34.4
39.5
22.2

38.8
40.6
45.1
26.7

40.5
42.4
46.5
28.7

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years............... ................
25-54 years________________
55 years and over......................

1,123
245
654
224

1,382
431
685
266

1,785
606
859
320

824
122
577
125

1, 019
241
634
144

1,345
365
807
173

73.3
49.8
88.3
55.5

73.7
55.9
92.5
54.2

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years........ ........................
25-54 years.................................
55 years and over......................

1,217
276
709
232

1,548
476
774
299

2,018
658
971
390

486
82
344
60

681
179
415
87

899
272
509
117

39.9
29.6
48.6
25.7

Male

Female

16.7

14.5

16.9

54.3
2.4
3.1

14.7
13.9
18.0
9.0

15.7
18.6
17.9
5.0

13.0
43.1
.1
15.2

30.2
68.9
14.5
38.3

14.3
12.9
15.3
13.7

19.2
17.9
18.7
22.3

75.3
60.2
94.0
54.0

23.0
76.2
4.7
18.5

23.7
97.9
9.8
15.7

29.2
40.7
25.4

20.2

32.0
51.4
27.4
19.8

44.0
37.6
53.6
29.1

44.5
41.4
52.5
30.0

27.2
72.2
9.2
28.6

40.1
118.8
20.5
45.5

30.4
38.3
25.4
30.6

32.0
52.2
22.7
34.8

16.8

19.3

10.6

Male

Female

South

A ll Classes

Both sexes, 14 and over..................

37,948

45,702

53,392

20,398

25,569

30,514

53.8

55.9

57.2

20.4

25.4

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years.................................
25-54 years.................................
55 years and over......................

18,418
4,546
9,747
4,125

22, 046
6,612
10,435
4,998

25,700
7, 449
12,529
5,722

13,852
2,530
9,089
2,233

16,388
3.941
9,857
2,590

19,042
4,425
11,849
2,768

75.2
55.7
93.2
54.1

74.3
59.6
94.5
51.8

74.1
59.4
94.6
48.4

19.7
45.5
7.1

18.3
55.8
8.4
16.0

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years.................................
25-54 years.................................
55 years and over.....................
N on white

19, 530
4,427
10,328
4,775

23.657
6,352
11,163
6,142

27,692
7,143
13,142
7,407

6,546
1,240
4,347
960

9,181
2,248
5,481
1,452

11,472
2,708
6,894
1,870

33.5
28.0
42.1
20.1

38.8
35.4
49.1
23.6

41.4
37.9
52.5
25.2

43.5
8.1
28,6

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years.................................
25-54 years.................................
55 years and over....................

3,406
963
1, 703
740

4,141
1,447
1,880
814

5,083
1,741
2,473

2,380
487
1,507
386

3,006
868
1. 715
424

3,716
1,039
2,254
424

69.9
50.5
88.5
52.2

72.6
60.0
91.2
52.1

73.1
59.7
91.1
48.8

50.3
10.4

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years.................................
25-54 years.................................
55 years and over.....................

3,803
985
1, 976
842

4, 562
1,485
2,088
990

5,502
1.782
2,593
1,127

1,548
260
1,067

2,018
497
1, 232
289

2,439
604
1, 521
314

40.7
26.4
54.0
26.2

44.2
33.5
59.0
29.2

44.3
33.9
58.6
27.8

50.8
5.6
17.5

Male

Female

Male

Female

868

221

21.2
21.1

21.6
10.1

20.0

16.6
12.7
14.5

16.2
12.3

20.1

20.2
6.8

40.2
81.3
26.1
51.3

17.1
12.5
17.7

20.6

25.0
20.6
25.8
28.7

26.3
78.3
13.8
9.7

22.7
20.3
31.5
6.7

23.6
19.7
31.4

30.4
90.9
15.5
31.1

24.2
13.9

20.6
20.0

21.5
23.4
8.5

0.0

20.8

See footnotes at end of table.




71

T able 2. P opulation and Labor F orce (E xcluding Armed F orces Overseas), by Age, Color,1 and Sex, for
R egions and S tates, 1960 and P rojected 1970 and 1980—Continued
[Numbers in thousands]

Age, color, and sex

Population (July 1)
1960
(Aprill)

A ll Classes
Both sexes, 14 and over___ _____

Male
Total, 14 and over____________
14-24 years_____ _________
25-54 years................... ...........
55 years and over............... .
Female
Total, 14 and over............... ..........
14-24 years_______________
25-54 years----------------------55 years and over____ _____
N onwhite

Male
Total, 14 and over________ ____
14-24 years............................
25-54 years--------- ------------55 years and over__________
Female
Total, 14 and over___ _________
14-24 years_______________
25-54 years...............................
55 years and over__________
All Classes
Both sexes, 14 and over________

Male
Total, 14 and over____________
14-24 years_______________
25-54 years--------- ------------55 years and over__________
Female
Total, 14 and over____________
14-24 years_______________
25-54 years_______________
55 years and over__________
N onwhite

Male
Total, 14 and over____________
14-24 years..............................
25-54 years...................... ........
55 years and over------ -------Female
Total, 14 and over____________
14t-24 years_______________
25-54 years______________
55 years and over__________
See footnotes at end of table.

72




1970

Percent change

Labor force (annual average)

1980

Labor force partici­
pation rates (percent)

1960
(April 1)

1960

1970

1980 Popu­ Labor Popu­ Labor
lation force lation force

1970

1980

1960-70

1970-80

West
19,610

25,526

31.640

ll, 172

15,139

19,032

57.0

59.3

60.2

30.2

35.5

24.0

25.7

9,762
2,184
5,389
2,189

12,491
3,617
6,137
2,738

15,352
4,372
7,641
3,339

7,708
1,353
5,125
1,229

9,966
2,490
5,929
1,548

12,306
3,055
7,390
1,860

79.0
62.0
95.1
56.2

79.8
68.8
96.6
56.5

80.2
69.9
96.7
55.7

28.0
65.6
13.9
25.1

29.3
84.0
15.7
25.9

22.9
20.9
24.5
22.0

23.5
22.7
24.6
20.2

9,848
2,073
5,356
2,418

13,035
3,458
6,368
3,209

16,287
4,188
7,962
4,137

3,464
656
2,256
552

5,173
1,398
2,972
803

6,726
1,879
3,796
1,051

35.2
31.6
42.1
22.8

39.7
40.4
46.7
25.0

41.3
44.9
47.7
25.4

32.4 49.3
66.8 113.1
18.9 31.7
32.7 45.6

25.0
21.1
25.0
28.9

30.0
34.4
27.7
30.8

745
180
434
130

968
312
482
174

1,278
445
615
218

562
95
390
76

746
193
450
103

987
281
581
124

75.4
52.7
89.8
58.5

77.0
61.9
93.4
59.0

77.2
63.1
94.6
57.1

30.0 32.8
73.2 103.1
11.0 15.4
33.6 34.6

32.0
42.7
27.5
25.0

32.2
45.6
29.1
21.0

697
173
415
108

991
308
528
155

1,376
447
694
234

289
50
208
30

452
121
281
50

613 41.4
189‘ 29.0
343 50.2
80 27.6

45.6
39.2
53.3
32.4

44.5
42.3
49.4
34.3

42.2 56.8
77.7 140.0
27.0 35.0
43.7 68.8

38.8
45.2
31.5
50.8

35.4
56.9
21.9
59.4

New England
7,582

8,628

9,828

4,331

5,044

5,767

57.1

58.5

58.7

13.8

16.5

13.9

14.3

3,628
751
1,943
934

4,119
1,096
1,992
1,030

4,708
1,258
2,307
1,144

2,833
428
1,856
548

3,207
695
1,924
588

3,726
857
2,234
635

78.1
57.0
95.6
58.7

77.9
63.4
96.6
57.1

79.1
68.1
96.8
55.5

13.5
45.9
2.5
10.3

13.2
62.2
3.7
7.2

14.3
14.7
15.8
11.1

16.2
23.3
16.1
8.0

3,955
748
2,046
1,160

4,509
1,085
2,084
1,340

5,119
1,240
2,362
1,517

1,499
287
918
294

1,838
459
1,003
375

2,041
517
1,089
435

37.9
38.4
44.8
25.3

40.8
42.3
48.1
28.0

39.9
41.7
46.1
28.7

14.0
45.1
1.8
15.5

22.6
60.0
9.3
27.7

13.5
14.3
13.3
13.3

11.1
12.6
8.5
16.0

86
21
51
15

117
36
63
18

161
55
82
24

68
13
46
9

96
25
61
10

133
39
80
14

78.1
61.5
90.8
58.4

82.4
69.7
96.5
58.1

82.9
70.4
97.6
60.7

35.5
70.8
24.8
21.2

42.9
93.6
32.6
20.6

37.5
51.5
30.3
34.5

38.3
53.0
31.8
40.5

90
22
52
16

129
38
70
21

180
57
93
30

42
8
28
6

64
17
39
8

86
26
49
11

46.6
38.2
53.6
35.8

49.6
44.9
55.8
37.1

47.7
46.1
52.4
36.2

43.6 52.6
73.3 103.6
35.3 40.9
29.8 34.6

39.9
50.5
33.6
41.9

34.8
54.6
25.4
38.4

T able 2. P opulation and Labor F orce (E xcluding Armed F orces Overseas), by Age, Color,1 and S ex, for
R egions and States, 1960 and P rojected 1970 and 1980—Continued
[Numbers in thousands]

Pooulation (July 11
Age, color, and sex
1960
(April 1)

1970

Percent change

Labor force (annual average)

1980

Labor force partici­
pation rates (percent)

1960
(April 1)

1960

1970

1980 Popu­ Labor Popu­ Labor
lation force lation force

1970

1980
Maine

A ll Classes
Both sexes, 14 and over.................

683

748

833

370

413

468

54.2

55.2

56.2

Total, 14 and over..........................
14-24 years_______________
25-54 years................................
55 years and over.....................

334
76
168
90

365
105
165
94

406
116
192
98

252
43
159
49

273
66
158
48

308*
77
185
47

75.4
56.6
95.0
54.7

74.8
62.8
96.0
51.0

76.0
66.3
96.3
47.7

-

Total, 14 and over..........................
14-24 years................................
25-54 years........... ...................
55 years and over.....................

349
73
173
103

383
98
170
115

427
107
194
124

119
22
72
25

140
35
77
29

160
42
86
32

33.9
30.3
41.4
23.9

36.6
35.2
45.0
25.5

37.4
38.8
44.3
25.6

Male

Female

A ll Classes
Both sexes, 14 and over..................

Male

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years.................................
25-54 years............. ...................
55 years and over.....................

Female

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years.................. .............
25-54 years...............................
55 years and over....... ..............

11.5

11.4

13.4

9.2
38.6
1.6
4.4

53.7

- .6
- 2.8

11.3
9.8
16.3
4.4

13.1
15.8
16.7
-2 .3

9.6
34.6
-1 .7

11.5
9.8
14.4
8.7

20.8

11.0

18.4
56.3
6.8
18.0

251

307

364

58.0

60.0

61.1

18.3

22.3

16.4

18.5

45
109
56

248
68
118
62

291
79
143

191
42
115
34

228
52
140
36

77.3
56.3
96.3
57.3

77.0
62.2
97.3
54.4

66.0

78.4
97.6
52.6

18.5
51.5
8.9
10.9

18.0
67.4
10.0
5.3

17.1
16.4

68

162
25
105
32

21.2
10.1

19.3
23.4
21.5
6.5

224
43
113

264
65
120
79

306
76
141
89

89
16
55
18

116
29
64
23

136
34
76
26

39.9
38.0
48.7
26.6

44.0
44.6
53.4
29.1

44.5
44.8
53.9
29.5

18.1
52.2
6.1
16.5

30.0
78.9
16.4
27.1

15.8
16.4
17.5
12.7

17.3
17.0
18.5
14.3

54.6

57.1

58.6

15.2

20.5

13.9

17.0

210

68

Vermont
359

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years.................................
25-54 years.................................
55 years and over......................

132
31
66
35

154
43
72
38

178
48
90
40

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years.................................
25-54 years.................................
55 years and over......................

142
30
69
43

162
43
71
48

182
46
83
52

180

211

17
63

117
26
70

137
29

21

86
21

7& 2
54.6
95.5
58.7

76.1
60.5
96.2
55.3

77.0
61.6
96.0
52.8

ia 2
40.8
9.4
7.6

ia o
56.1
10.2
1.3

15.6
10.6
24.0
5.5

17.1
12.5
23.8
7

49
9
29

63
16
34
13

74
19
41
14

34.4
31.5
42.0
24.1

39.1
38.0
48.1
26.7

40.7
40.2
49.3
27.3

14.3
42.1
3.4
12.3

30.1
71.9
18.4
24.2

12.3
8.1
17.0
9.0

16.8
14.4
19.9
11.5

14.3

12.8

13.5

11.3
59.3
2.1
5.4

13.5
14.4
15.3
9.2

16.1
24.6
15.8
7.6

19.8
57.6
6.1
23.2

13.7
12.7
10.4

149
101

21

10

Massachusetts

All Classes
Both sexes, 14 and over..................

3,740

4,150

4,683

2,129

2,434

2,763

56.9

58.6

59.0

11.0

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years.................................
25-54 years.................................
55 years and over......................

1,768
361
941
465

1,961
512
949
499

2,227
586
1,095
545

1,376
205
896
275

1,531
327
914
290

1,778
407
1,059
312

77.8
56.8
95.1
59.1

78.1
63.8
96.3
58.1

79.8
69.4
96.7
57.2

41.9
.9
7.4

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years.................................
25-54 years.................................
55 years and over......................

1.972
368
1,004
600

2,189
520
997
672

2,456
591
1,123
742

754
150
451
153

903
236
478
189

985
260
511
215

38.2
40.6
44.9
25.5

41.2
45.4
48.0
28.1

40.1
44.0
45.5
28.9

41.2
- .7

Female

13.9
12.5
9.2

597

315

Male

8.2

512

433

274

Female

9.4

New Hampshire

A ll Classes
Both sexes, 14 and over..................

Male

1970-80

1960-70

11.0

11.0

12.0

12.2

9.2
6.9
13.8
10.1

See footnotes at end of table.




73

T able 2. P opulation and Labor F orce (E xcluding Armed F orces Overseas), by A ge, Color,1 and S ex, for
R egions and States, 1960 and P rojected 1970 and 1980—Continued
[Numbers in thousands]

Population [July 1)

Age, color, and sex

1960
(April 1) 1970
A ll Classes

Percent change
1970-80
1960-70
1960 1970 1980 Popu­ Labor Popu­ Labor
lation force lation force

Labor force (annual averaee) pation rates (percent)
Labor force partici­

1980 (April 1) 1970
1960

1980

Rhode Island

Both sexes, 14 and over..............

628

698

759

360

396

426 57.3

56.8

10.2

8.6

7.4

Total, 14 and over......................
14-24 years..........................
25-54 years...........................
55 years and over.................

304
69
159
75

334
102
148
83

361
111
161
89

238
44
152
42

258
70
143
44

282
80
156
45

77.2 78.1 9.8 6.1
69.0 72.8 47.0 8.3
96.4 97.0 -6.5 -5.7
53.2 50.7 10.1 4.6

8.2
8.4
8.5
7.4

9.4
14.4
9.1
2.4

Total, 14 and over:
14-24 years..........................
25-54 years...........................
55 years and over.................

324
60
169

365
87
167

398
94
181

122
23
77

139
32
80

38.0
36.7
47.8

36.2
35.5 12.6 13.8
.9 3.5
44.6 44.5 40.9

9.1
7.7
8.1

3.8
4.1
.9

Both sexes, 14 and over_______

1,824

2,204

2,598

1,071

1,314

1,535

59.6

59.1

20.8

22.7

17.9

16.8

Total, 14 and over______ ____
14-24 years______ ___ __
25-54 years------------------55 years and over________

881
169
500
212

1,057
266
538
254

1,247
319
625
303

705
94
481
129

837
163
523
151

993
211
608
174

80.0 61.5
55.8 79.2
96.4 97.3
60.8 59.5

79.6
66.3
97.2
57.3

20.0
57.0
7.6
19.7

18.9
73.1
8.7
17.2

18.0
20.0
16.2
19.6

18.6
29.4
16.2
15.1

Total, 14 and over---- ----------14-24 years_____________
25-54 years------------------55 years and over________

944
173
519
251

1,147
272
559
316

1,351
325
639
386

367
67
234
66

477
111
270
95

542 38.9 41.6
130 45.1 48.3
294 38.6 41.0
118 26.1 30.1
Middle Atlantic

40.1
39.9
45.9
30.6

21.5 66.6
56.9 30.0
7.7 15.4
25.7 44.6

17.8
19.6
14.3
22.4

13.7
16.4
8.7
24.6

Both sexes, 14 and over_______ 24,979

28,413

31,742

13,929 16,105

17,996

55.8

56.7

56.7

13.7

15.6

11.7

11.7

Total, 14 and over—
.________ 2,254
14-24 years.......................... 11,920 13,456
25-54 years------------------- 6,566 3,247
6,696
55 years and over............... 3,100 3,513

15,045
3,699
7,474
3,872

9,289 10,294
1,188 1,831
6,243 6,437
1,858 2,026

11,522
2,183
7,202
2,137

77.9 76.5
52.7 56.4
95.1 96.1
59.9 57.7

76.6 12.9
59.0 2.0
96.4 44.1
55.2 13.3

10.8
54.1
3.1
9.0

11.8
13.9
11.6
10.2

11.9
19.2
11.9
5.5

14,957
3,432
7,132
4,393

16,697
3,855
7,791
5,051

4,639
871
2,934
834

5,811
1,350
3,293
1,168

6,473
1,494
3,565
1,414

35.5
36.4
41.6
23.1

14.5 54.9
43.2 25.3
1.2 12.3
21.6 40.0

11.6
12.3
9.2
15.0

11.4
10.7
8.3
21.1

1,152
287
701
164

75.6 77.0 77.6
53.4 92.4 94.6
88.6 59.4 61.3
60.0 59.1 59.6

28.5 27.9
81.5 44.6
18.0 19.9
23.6 26.0

29.0
49.2
22.6
26.9

50.2 48.0 29.8 37.0 39.3
81.9 19.5
43.2 45.0 59.4 23.3 27.8
58.8 55.1 16.2
36.1 34.8 39.0 50.5 85.0

22.3
45.4
12.2
30.2

Male

Female

A ll Classes

Male

Female

A ll Classes

Male

Female

Total, 14 and over—
................
2,396
14-24 years_____________ 13,059
25-54 years_____________ 3,613
55 years and over.... ............ 7,051
N onwhite

Male

Total, 14 and over______ ____
14-24 years..........................
25-54 years............-............
55 years and over.................

919
199
547
174

1,160
324
619
218

1,484
468
741
275

695
106
484
104

893
192
572
129

Total, 14 and over.....................
14-24 years.......................
25-54 years____________
55 years and over___ ____

1,067
233
641
193

1,385
372
745
269

1,771
517
891
363

508
88
355
64

695
160
438
97

Female

See footnotes at end of table.

74




78.4
63.3
95.5
56.0

144 37.6
33 37.7
81 45.8
Connecticut
58.7

850 47.5
233 37.8
491 33.3
126 55.4

56.1

38.9 38.8
39.3 38.8
46.2 28.0
26.6 45.8

11.2

26.2
62.9
13.1
25.5

Table 2. P opulation and Labor F orce (E xcluding A rmed F orces Overseas), by A ge, Color,1 and Sex , for
R egions and States, 1960 and P rojected 1970 and 1980—Continued
[Numbers in thousands]

Age, color, and sex

Population (July 1)
1060
(April 1)

All Classes
Both sexes, 14 and over................

Male
Total, 14 and over.......... ..............
14-24 years...............................
25-54 years...............................
55 years and over....................
Female
Total, 14 and over.........................
14-24 years..............................
25-54 years_______________
55 years and over....................
N onwhite

Male
Total, 14 and over.........................
14-24 years..............................
25-54 years......... .....................
55 years and over....................
Female
Total, 14 and over.........................
14-24 years......... ..................._
25-54 years..............................
55 years and over....................
A ll Classes
Both sexes, 14 and over.................

Male
Total, 14 and over.........................
14-24 years...............................
25-54 years....... ......................
55 years and over___ ______
Female
Total, 14 and over........ ...............
14-24 years............ ...............
25-54 years................. ............
65 years and over__________
N onwhite

Male
Total, 14 and over.......................
14-24 years...... ........................
25-54 years...............................
55 years and over....................
Female
Total, 14 and over.........................
14-24 years..............................
25-54 years...............................
55 years and over........ ...........

1970

Percent change

Labor force (annual average)

1980

Labor force partici­
pation rates (percent)

1960
(April 1)

1960

1970

1980 Popu­ Labor Popu­ Labor
lation force lation force

1970

1980

1960-70

1970-80

New York
12,389

14,203

15,790

6,999

8,109

8,970

56.5

57.2

56.8

14.6

16.1

11.2

10.4

5,882
1,087
3,218
1,577

6,683
1,568
3,348
1,768

7,434
1,802
3,736
1,896

4,595
572
3,050
973

5,150
883
3,220
1,048

5,744
1,058
3,607
1,079

78.1
52.6
94.8
61.7

77.1
56.3
96.2
59.3

77.3
58.7
96.6
56.9

13.6
44.2
4.1
12.1

12.1
54.4
5.6
7.6

11.2'
15.0
11.6
7.3

11.5
19.8
12.0
3.0

6,506
1,178
3,491
1,838

7,519
1,694
3,593
2,233

8,356
1,911
3,939
2,506

2,404
440
1,506
458

2,978
678
1,672
628

3,226
732
1,767
727

37.0
37.4
43.2
24.9

39.6
40.1
46.5
28.1

38.6
38.3
44.9
29.0

15.6
43.8
2.9
21.5

23.9
54.1
11.0
37.3

11.1
12.8
9.6
12.3

8.3
7.8
5.7
15.8

476
100
293
84

617
166
339
111

792
245
402
145

365
55
257
52

482
100
314
68

619
150
380
89

76.5
55.1
87.9
62.2

78.2
60.2
92.6
61.3

78.1
61.1
94.7
61.0

29.4
66.1
15.9
33.0

32.2
81.2
22.0
31.0

28.5
47.9
18.3
30.5

28.4
50.3
21.1
29.8

570
122
352
96

758
196
421
142

970
275
497
198

282
49
199
34

386
86
246
54

459
124
265
70

49.5
40.2
56.6
35.5

51.0
44.2
58.5
37.9

47.4
45.1
53.3
35.6

33.1
60.2
19.8
47.1

36.9
75.7
23.8
57.1

27.9
40.5
18.1
39.7

18.9
43.5
7.5
31.3

New Jersey
4,404

5,346

6,263

2,509

3,062

3,577

57.0

57.3

57.1

21.4

22.0

17.1

16.8

2,124
401
1,207
516

2,547
636
1,283
628

2,976
765
1,466
744

1,697
221
1,161
315

1,993
375
1,246
372

2,321
471
1,426
424

79.9
55.2
96.2
61.1

78.2
58.9
97.2
59.2

78.0
61.6
97.2
56.9

20.0
58.7
6.3
21.7

17.5
69.6
7.4
18.0

16.8
20.3
14.3
18.5

16.4
25.7
14.4
13.9

2,281
403
1,272
606.

2,799
647
1,377
774

3,287
774
1,562
951

812
146
529
136

1,068
235
630
203

1,256
277
710
269

35.6
36.3
41.6
22.5

38.2
36.2
45.8
26.3

38.2
35.8
45.5
28.2

22.7
60.4
8.3
27.9

31.5
60.2
19.1
49.1

17.4
19.6
13.4
22.8

17.6
18.1
12.7
32.1

167
39
99
30

220
65
117
38

295
100
146
50

129
22
90
18

174
40
111
23

234
62
141
30

77.2
55.8
90.6
60.5

78.9
60.9
94.9
60.4

79.2
62.7
96.6
61.2

31.8
68.5
18.2
29.0

34.6
84.2
23.9
28.8

34.1
53.0
25.0
29.9

34.7
57.3
27.3
31.6

187
43
110
34

256
72
137
46

344
107
175
63

91
17
62
11

126
31
80
16

159
48
92
19

48.5
39.2
56.6
33.6

49.4
42.9
58.1
33.8

46.1
44.8
52.5
30.6

36.7
68.4
24.6
36.4

38.5
84.6
27.8
37.3

34.7
48.4
27.0
36.3

25.6
54.9
14.6
23.4

See footnotes at end of table.




75

T able 2. P opulation and Labor F orce (E xcluding Armed F orces Overseas), by A ge, Color,1 and Sex , for
R egions and S tates, 1960 and P rojected 1970 and 1980—Continued
[Numbers in thousands]
Percent change
Population (July 1)
Labor force (annual average) pation rates (percent)
Labor force partici­
Age, color, and sex
.1960-70
1970-80
1960
1960
(April 1) 1970 1980 (April 1) 1970 1980 1960 1970 1980 Popu­ Labor Popu­ Labor
lation force lation force
A ll Classes

Pennsylvania

Both sexes, 14 and over..............

8,186

8,864

9,688

4,420

4,915

5,449

54.0

55.4

11.2

9.3

10.9

Total, 14years........................
14-24 and over.....................
25-54 years_________ ___
55 years and over.................

3,914
766
2,142
1,006

4,226
1,043
2,065
1,117

4,634
1,131
2,272
1,232

2,997
395
2,033
570

3,151
573
1,971
606

3,457
654
2,169
634

76.6
51.6
94.9
56.6

74.6 74.6 36.3 45.1
54.9 57.8 8.0 5.1
95.4 95.5 -3.6 -3.0
54.3 51.5 11.0 6.4

9.7
8.4
10.0
10.3

9.7
14.1
10.1
4.6

Total, 14 and over__________
14-24 years____________
25-54 years............. ............
55 years and over________

4,272
815
2,288
1,169

4,639
1,091
2,162
1,386

5,054
1,170
2,290
1,594

1,423
285
898
240

1,765
437
991
337

1,991
485
1,087
419

33.3 38.0
34.9 40.0
39.2 45.8
20.6 24.3

39.4 33.9 53.6
8.6
41.5 -5.5 24.0
10.4
47.5 18.5 40.1
26.3

9.0
7.2
5.9
15.0

12.8
11.1
9.7
24.3

Total, 14 and over____ ______
14-24 years...... .......... ........
25-54 years.............. ...........
55 years and over________

276
60
155
60

323
93
162
68

397
123
194
80

201
29
137
34

237
53
147
38

299
75
179
45

17.2 17.9
54.1 80.1
4.5 6.7
13.3 9.5

22.7
33.0
19.4
16.4

26.0
41.2
22.4
18.8

Total, 14 and over__________
14-24 years.........................
25-54 years................ .........
55 years and over.................

311
68
179
63

371
104
186
81

457
136
219
102

135
22
94
19

232 32.6
182
43.3
61 52.2
43
135 29.9
112
36
28
East North Central

49.1 45.0
50.9
41.4 61.5
59.9 35.7
34.2

19.5 35.4 23.0
52.5 93.4 30.6
4.0 19.4 17.4
28.1 46.3 26.1

27.4
42.2
20.6
31.9

57.6

14.0

17.7

15.6

17.8

Male

Female

N onwhite

Male

Female

A ll Classes

Both sexes, 14 and over_______ 25,330 28,866 33,380 14,128

16,627

19,587

Total, 14 and over__________
14-24 years.......................
25-54 years_____ _______
55 years and over________

12,308 13,954
2,530 3,708
6,717 6,883
3,062 3,363

Total, 14 years_____________
14-24 and over__________
25-54 years_____________
55 years and over________

13,022
2,673
6,930
3,419

Male

Female

N onwhite

Male

12,685 58.0 61.9 64.9
78.8 77.8 78.5
2,775 95.6 96.6 96.5
7,846 59.0 56.9 54.9
2,064

13.4 12.0
46.6 456.5
2.5 5.9
9.8 3.5

15.8
15.3
18.1
11.8

16.8
20.8
18.0
7.9

14,912 17,217
3,879 4,426
7,008 4,691
4,025 8,101

4,433
913
2,763
758

5,770
1,545
3,152
1,072

6,902
1,833
3,721
1,348

34.0 39.8 40.1
41.4
34.1 38.7 45.9
39.9 26.7 28.7
22.2 45.0

14.5 69.3
45.1 30.1
1.1 14.1
17.7 41.5

15.5
14.1
15.6
16.5

19.6
18.6
18.1
25.6

74.4 74.2 75.6 79.4
49.9 55.4 60.1 24.1
88.8 92.8 94.0 22.9
56.8 55.2 54.9 4.7

29.4
23.7 40,6
99.2 24.7
9.4 23.6
19.5

31.8
52.5
26.3
23.0

44.6 28.5 41.6 30.8
42.8 74.0 124.3 37.8
51.7 9.7 52.0 25.3
30.0 33.0 20.4 34.2

32.5
53.2
21.9
39.4

1,480
495
718
267

686
98
488
100

849
195
534
119

1,119
298
675
147

Total, 14 and over_______ ___
14-24 years...... ............ ......
25-54 years____________
55 years and over________

999
226
592
181

1,284
394
650
241

1,680
543
814
323

400
68
286
46

566
152
345
70

750
233
421
97




58.7

10,857
2,297
6,647
1,914

1,144
352
576
216

76

55.8

9,695
1,467
6,420
1,807

922
196
550
176

See footnotes at end of table.

73.4
72.9 57.1 75.4
48.9 90.4 60.6
88.5 54.9 92.7
56.8
56.0

8.3

16,163
4,276
8,128
3,758

Total, 14 and over__________
14-24 years.......................
25-54 years_____________
55 years and over________
Female

56.2

40.0 38.5
29.9 44.1
48.4 28.9
25.3 53.1

T able 2. P opulation and Labor F orce (E xcluding A rmed F orces Overseas), by A ge, Color,1 and Sex, for
R egions and States, 1960 and P rojected 1970 and 1980—Continued
[Numbers in thousands]
Age, color, and sex

Population (July 1)
1960
(April 1)

1970

Labor force (annual average)

1980

1960
(April 1)

1970

1980

Labor force partici­
pation rates (percent)

Percent change
1960-70

1970-80

1960

1970

1980 Popu­ Labor Popu­ Labor
lation force lation force

Ohio
A ll C l a sse s

Both sexes, 14 and over..................

6,767

7,818

9,098

3,724

4,463

5,276

55.0

57.1

58.0

15.5

19.8

16.4

18.2

3,266
669
1,801
795

3,760
1,006
1,879
876

4,392
1,149
2,241
1,002

2,571
385
1,723
463

2,937
620
1,817
500

3,468
743
2,168
557

78.7
57.5
95.7
58.2

78.1
61.6
96.7
57.1

79.0
64.7
96.7
55.5

15.1
50.3
4.3

10.1

14.2
61.0
5.5
8.0

16.8
14.3
19.3
14.4

18.1
19.9
19.3
11.3

3,502
721
1,871
909

4,058
1,067
1,924
1,067

4,706
1,202
2,242
1,262

1,153
236
723
193

1,526
402
849
273

1,808
469
986
352

32.9
32.7
38.6
21.3

37.6
37.8
44.1
25.6

38.4
39.0
44.0
27.9

15.9
48.0
2.8
17.3

32.3
71.0
17.4
41.2

16.0
12.7
16.5
18.3

18.5
16.5
16.2
28.8

251
52
147
51

311
94
157
61

399
128
197
74

187
27
132
28

234
52
148
33

307
77
189
41

74.5
50.7
89.4
55.8

75.2
56.1
94.3
54.8

76.9
60.1
95.9
55.4

24.3
77.5
6.9
19.4

25.4
96.5
12.7
17.4

28.0
36.4
25.3
22.0

31.0
46.1
27.4
23.3

271
60
159
52

347
104
175

448
140
219
89

157
40
97

205
59
118
28

41.3
31.3
50.1
26.1

45.4
38.4
55.4
30.1

45.8
42.0
54.2
31.4

28.0
73.0
10.1
30.8

40.5
112.3
21.8
50.5

29.1
34.3
24.8
32.1

30.5
47.1
22.1
37.9

M ale

Total, 14 and over................ .........
14-24 years................................
25-54 years.................................
55 years and over......................
Fem ale

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years.................................
25-54 years.................................
55 years and over......................
N

o n w h i ^e

M ale

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years................................
25-54 years.................................
55 years and over......................
F em ale

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years.................................
25-54 years................................
55 years and over.....................

68

112

19
80
14

20

Indiana
A ll C la sse s

Both sexes, 14 and over.................

3,251

3,696

4,264

1,802

2,155

2,567

55.4

58.3

60.2

13.7

19.6

15.4

19.1

1,579
346
845
388

1,798
488
887
423

2,088
548
1,067
472

1,239
202
809
228.

1,400
305
857
238

1,639
358
1,027
254

78.5
58.3
95.8
58.8

77.9
62.5
96.6
56.3

78.5
65.2
96.3
53.8

13.8
40.9
5.0
9.0

12.9
51.1
5.9
4.3

16.1
12.5
20.3
11.7

17.1
17.4
19.9

1,672
355
871
445

1,898
501
884
513

2,176
560
1,024
593

563
113
350
99

756
193
427
136

928
228
528
171

33.7
32.0
40.3
22.2

39.8
38.5
48.4
26.5

42.6
40.8
51.6
28.9

13.5
41.2
1.4
15.2

34.2
69.9
21.8
37.6

14.7
11.7
15.8
15.5

22.7
18.5
23.6
26.0

85
19
48
18

104
32
51
20

135
45
66
24

64
9
44

79
19
48
12

105
29
63
14

74.9
49.9
90.6
58.6

75.8
57.8
94.7
57.0

77.7
63.6
95.3
56.4

22.5
71.7
5.9
15.0

24.0
98.8
10.8
11.9

29.9
4a 2
28.3
17.6

33.2
54.1
29.1
16.4

92
21
52
18

116
36
57
23

151
50
72
29

37
6
25
5

50
13
30
7

65
19
37
9

40.0
29.2
48.3
28.6

43.2
35.8
52.8
31.2

43.0
38.6
51.3
30.2

26.2
73.2
7.9
25.3

36.3
112.3
18.0
36.7

30.3
38.0
26.6
27.1

29.6
48.7
23.1

M ale

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years.................................
25-54 years.................................
55 years and over......................

6.8

Fem ale

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years.................................
25-54 years.................................
55 years and over......................
N

o n w h it e

M ale

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years...............................
25-54 years.................................
55 years and over.....................

10

Fem ale

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years................................
25-54 years.................................
55 years and over.....................

22.8

See footnotes at end of table.




77

T a b l e 2. P o pu l a t io n a n d L a b o r F orce (E x c l u d in g A rm ed F orces O v e r s e a s ), b y A g e , C olor ,1 a n d S e x , fo r
R eg io n s a n d S t a t e s , 1960 a n d P r o jec ted 1970 a n d 1980—Continued
[Numbers in thousands]
Population (July 1)

Labor force (annual average)

Age, color, and sex
1960
(April 1)

1970

1980

1960
(April 1)

1970

1980

Labor force partici­
pation rates (percent)
1960

1970

1980

Percent change
1960-70

1970-80

Popu­ Labor Popu­ Labor
lation force lation force

Illinois
A ll C la sse s

Both sexes, 14 and over..................

9,302

4,125

4,710

5,476

57.1

58.2

58.9

12.1

14.2

14.9

16.3

4,474
1,177
1,075

2,776
405
1,825
545

3,064
624
1,856
584

3,543
777
2,151
614

79.4
58.9
95.3
61.1

78.7
63.1
96.5
59.6

79.2
66.0
96.8
57.1

11.3
43.8
.4
9.6

10.4
54.0
1.7
7.0

15.0
18.9
15.5
9.9

15.6
24.6
15.9
5.3

4,200
1,032
1,980
1,189

4.827
1,215
2,258
1,354

1,348
265
839
244

1,646
438
861
346

1,933
529
986
418

36.2
36.7
42.3
24.0

39.2
42.5
43.5
29.1

40.0
43.5
43.7
30.9

42.7
- .2
16.9

12.8

65.1
2.7
41.8

14.9
17.7
14.1
14.0

17.4
20.6
14.5
20.7

330
71
196
63

412
126
210
76

550
191
265
93

245
38
172
35

307
71
195
41

417
114
253
50

74.5
52.8
56.5

74.6
56.4
92.7
54.5

75.9
59.6
95.4
53.9

25.1
77.0
7.5
21.2

25.3
89.2
13.1
16.9

33.3
52.1
25.8
22.9

35.6
60.6
29.5

366
84
215
67

470
142
241
87

629
210
303
116

152
27
108
17

213
62
126
25

278
101
144
33

41.5
31.9
50.2
25.6

45.2
43.8
52.2
28.3

44.2
48.0
47.5
28.7

28.5
69.1
12.2
30.0

40.1
132.7
16.6
44.0

33.8
48.3
25.6
32.7

30.8
62.4
14.5
34.4

7,219

8,092

3,496
688
1,915
893

3,892
990
1,923
979

3,723
723
1,983r
1. 017

M ale

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years.................................
25-54 years.................................
55 years and over......................

2,222

F em ale

Total, 14 and over...........................
14^24 years.................................
25-54 years.................................
55 years and over......................
N

22.1

o n w h it e

M ale

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years.................................
25-54 years.................................
55 years and over......................

88.1

21.6

Fem ale

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years.................................
25-54 years.................................
55 years and over.....................

Michigan
A ll Classes
Both sexes, 14 and over..................

5,350

6,144

7,097

2,944

3,477

4,103

55.0

56.6

57.8

14.9

18.1

15.5

18.0

2,620
547
1,451
621

2,983
819
1,468
696

3,437
929
1,717
790

2,051
308
1,386
357

2,278
487
1,415
376

2,652
582
1,653
417

78.3
56.3
95.5
57.5

76.4
59.5
96.4
54.0

77.2
62.7
96.2
52.8

13.9
49.6
1.2
12.0

11.1
58.2
2.1
5.2

15.2
13.5
17.0
13.6

16.4
19.4
16.8
11.0

2,730
585
1,490
655

3,162
858
1,504
800

3,660
963
1,728
968

893
195
565
134

1,199
332
673
194

1,451
391
805
255

32.7
33.3
37.9
20.4

37.9
38.6
44.8
24.2

39.7
40.6
46.6
26.3

15.8
46.6
.9
22.1

34.2
70.4
19.2
44.9

15.8
12.3
14.9
21.1

21.1
18.0
19.6
31.6

230
47
142
41

277
87
136
54

337
109
160
69

170
21
125
24

199
45
123
30

245
65
142
38

73.9
44.1
88.4
57.7

71.7
52.3
90.5
55.9

72.7
60.0
89.0
55.0

20.6
85.5
-4 .3
32.6

17.0
120.0
-2.1
28.5

21.7
25.2
17.5
26.8

23.4
43.6
15.6
24.7

243
54
149
40

309
97
154
58

387
119
187
80

128
32
80
16

173
45
104
25

36.4
25.7
44.0
22.3

41.3
32.5
52.0
27.6

44.7
37.5
55.4
30.5

27.0
78.9
3.6
43.6

44.3
125.9
22.4
77.7

25.3
23.0
21.3
39.8

35.5
42.0
29.2
54.7

M a le

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years.................. - ........—
25-54 years________________
55 years and over__________
F em ale

Total, 14 and over____ ________
14-24 years................................
25-54 years.-------- -------------55 years and over....................
N

o n w h it e

M a le

Total, 14 and over.........................
14-24 years___________ ____
25-54 years........................ .
55 years and over.....................
F em ale

Total, 14 and over..........................
14-24 years.................. ............
25-54 years........... ...................
55 years and over______ ____
See footnotes at end of table.

78




88

14
9

66

T a b l e 2. P o pu l a t io n a n d L a b o r F orce (E x c l u d in g A rm ed F o r c es O v e r s e a s ), b y A g e , C olor ,1 a n d S e x , for
R e g io n s a n d S t a t e s , 1960 a n d P ro jected 1970 a n d 1980—Continued
[Numbers in thousands]
Population (July 1)

Labor force (annual average)

Age, color, and sex
1960
(April 1)

1970

1980

1960
(April 1)

1970

Labor force partici­
pation rates (percent)

Percent change
1960-70

1970-80

1960

1980

1970

1980 Popu­ Labor Popu­ Labor
lation force lation force

Wisconsin
A ll Classes

Both sexes, 14 and over.................
Male
Total, 14 and over_____________
14-24 years.................. ............
25-54 years________________
55 years and over__________
Female
Total, 14 and over_____________
14-24 years................................
25-54 years........................ .......
55 years and over....................

2,744

3,116

3,619

1,533

1,822

2,165

55.9

58.5

59.8

13.6

18.9

16.1

18.8

1,348
279
704
364

1,521
407
725
390

1,771
473
881
418

1,057
167
677
213

1,178
260
701
217

1,383
314
847
222

78.4
59.9
96.1
58.4

77.4
64.0
96.7
55.6

78.1
66.5
96.2
53.1

12.9
45.6
3.0
6.9

11.5
55.6
3.6
1.8

16.4
16.3
21.4
7.3

20.8
20.8

1,396
289
714
393

1,595
421
717
457

1,848
486
848
514

476
103
285

644
180
341
124

782
215
415
152

34.1
35.8
39.9
22.3

40.4
42.6
47.6
27.1

42.3
44.3
49.0
29.5

14.2
45.8
.3
16.3

35.2
73.8
19.5
40.9

15.9
15.3
18.3
12.5

21.8
22.8

88

17.4
2.4

21.5
19.9

West North Central
A ll Classes

Both sexes, 14 and over________
Male
Total, 14 and over_____________
14-24 years________________
25-54 y e a r s . --------------55 years and over................ .
Female
Total, 14 and over..........................
14-24 years________________
25-54 years_______________
55 years and over............ .......
N on white
Male
Total, 14 and over..........................
14-24 years________________
25-54 years.----------------------55 years and over___ ______
Female
Total, 14 and over_____________
14-24 years________________
25-54 years________________
55 years and over__________

10,827

11,808

13,179

5,919

6,772

7,774

54.7

57.3

59.0

9.1

14.4

11.6

14.8

5,280
1,121
2,691
1,468

5,729
1, 565
2,663
1,501

6,411
1,731
3,134
1,545

4,092
676
2,562
853

4,393
1,011
2,554
828

4,965
1,148
3,002
815

77.5
60.3
95.2
58.1

76.7
64.6
95.9
55.2

77.4
66.3
95.8
52.8

8.5
39.6
- 1.0

7.4
49.5
- .3
-2 .9

11.9
10.6
17.7
3.0

13.0
13.5
17.6
-1 .5

5,547
1,137
2,758
1,652

6,079
1,574
2,687
1,819

6,767
1,731
3,081
1,956

1,828
399
1,059
369

2,379
670
1,223
486

2,809
778
1,473
559

33.0
35.1
38.4
22.4

39.1
42.6
45.5
26.7

41.5
44.9
47.8
28.6

9.6
38.4
- 2.6
10.1

30.2
67.8
15.5
31.6

11.3
10.0
14.7
7.5

18.1
16.2
20.4
14.9

48
104
49

237
79
109
50

304
111
141
53

138
24
89
25

170
46
99
25

226
67
133
26

49.3
85.8
51.0

71.8
58.3
91.4
49.9

74.3
60.5
94.4
49.5

18.1
62.9
4.7
2.4

23.6
92.7
11.6
.3

28.2
41.2
29.3
5.5

32.7
46.4
33.5
4.4

218
50
117
51

264
82
124
58

338
115
157
67

114
27
70
17

148
40
89

39.5
28.1
49.8
27.2

43.4
33.0
56.5
29.9

43.9
34.5
56.7
30.1

63.6
6.2
13.1

32.8
92.3
20.5
24.3

28.3
40.5
26.2
15.5

29.8
46.7
26.6
16.3

18.4

16.8

19.2

11.9
54.9
4.7
.2

17.2
15.7
23.8
6.4

19.2
19.3
23.7
4.3

32.5
65.1
16.2
36.6

16.5
14.9
20.9
10.9

19.4
19.1
20.3
17.6

201

86

14
58
14

20

68.6

2.2

21.0

Minnesota
A ll C lasses
Both sexes, 14 and over____ ____

Male
Total, 14 and over____________
14-24 years________________
25-54 years________________
55 years and over.....................
Female
Total, 14 and over____________
14-24 years_______________
25-54 years_______________
55 years and over_________

2,344

2,652

3,098

1,304

1,544

1,841

55.6

58.2

59.4

13.1

1,148
241
592
315

1,292
353
615
325

1,515
408
761
346

893
145
566
182

999

224
593
182

1,191
267
733
190

77.8
60.0
95.7
57.7

77.3
63.6
96.4
56.0

78.6
65.5
96.4
54.9

46.1
3.8
3.3

1,196
259
598
340

1,359
372
605
383

1,583
427
732
424

411
104
227
81

545
171
264

651
204
317
130

34.4
40.0
37.9
23.8

40.1
46.0
43.6
28.8

41.1
47.7
43.4
30.6

13.6
43.7
1.1
12.7

110

12.6

See footnotes at end of table.




79

T able 2. P opulation and Labor F orce (E xcluding Armed F orces Overseas), by A ge, Color,1 and Sex , for
R egions and States, 1960 and P rojected 1970 and 1980—Continued
[Numbers in thousands]
Population (July 1)

Labor force (annual average)

Age, color, and sex
1960
(April 1)

1970

1980

1960
(April 1)

Percent change
1960-70

1970-80

1960

1970

1980 Popu­ Labor Popu­ Labor
lation force lation force

54.3

58.0

60.1

5.6

12.7

9.6

13.8

194
523
149

78.1
62.6
95.9
58.3

77.9
67.7
96.2
56.0

78.8
69.4
95.5
54.7

5.7
33.1
-1 .9
- 1.0

5.3
43.8
- 1.6
-4 .9

10.5
6.5
17.8

11.7
9.3
16.9
- .7

486
134
249

31.9
34.7
36.9
22.1

39.2
44.0
45.0
27.0

42.3
46.8
48.2
29.8

5.6
32.6
-5 .6
5.5

29.8
68.3
15.1
29.1

12.9
5.2

21.0

1980

1970

Labor force partici­
pation rates (percent)

Iowa
A ll C l a sse s

Both sexes, 14 and over..................

1,941 ,

2,051

1,054

1,189

279
548
273

736
123
455
158

775
177
448
150

1,148
286
518
345

318
70
179

413
118
206

2,248

1,352

M ale

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years.................................
26-54 years.............................
55 years and over.....................

943
197
474
271

996
262
465
268

999
203
485
310

1,055
269
458
327

1,100

866

1.6

F em ale

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years............................... .
25-54 years.................................
55 years and over......................

68

88

102

8.8
6.2

17.6
12.9
15.9

Missouri
A ll C la sse s

Both sexes, 14 and over..................

3 ,1 1 8

3 ,3 4 6

3 ,7 1 2

1 ,6 7 3

1 ,8 3 8

2 ,0 8 3

5 3 .7

5 4 .9

5 6 .1

7 .3

9 .8

1 0 .9

1 3 .4

1 ,4 9 6
312
760
424

1 ,5 9 5
422
736
437

1 ,7 7 6
475
853
447

1 ,1 3 3
181
716
236

1 ,1 7 9
256
697
225

1 ,3 2 0
295
811
213

7 5 .7
5 8 .1
9 4 .1
5 5 .7

7 3 .9
6 0 .7
9 4 .8
5 1 .5

7 4 .3
6 2 .2
9 5 .1
4 7 .6

6 .6
3 5 .1
- 3 .3
3 .3

4 .0
4 1 .2
- 2 .6
- 4 .5

1 1 .4
1 2 .7
1 6 .0
2 .3

1 2 .0
1 5 .4
1 6 .3
- 5 .5

1 ,621
313
810
498

1,7 5 1
426
775
550

1 ,9 3 6
476
874
586

540
102
332
106

659
164
362
133

763
195
423
146

3 3 .3
3 2 .5
4 1 .0
2 1 .3

3 7 .6
3 8 .5
4 6 .7
2 4 .1

3 9 .4
4 1 .0
4 8 .3
2 4 .9

8 .0
3 6 .1
- 4 .3
1 0 .4

2 2 .0
6 1 .2
9 .0
2 4 .9

1 0 .6
1 1 .7
1 2 .8
6 .6

1 5 .8
1 8 .8
1 6 .6
9 .9

122
27
63
31

141
44
64
32

179
63
82
34

85
13
55
16

102
25
61
16

135
38
80
17

6 9 .6
4 9 .6
8 7 .3
5 0 .8

7 2 .5
5 7 .3
9 4 .2
5 0 .3

7 5 .4
6 0 .3
9 7 .6
4 9 .1

1 6 .3
6 4 .7
1 .6
4 .1

2 1 .2
9 0 .3
9 .7
3 .0

2 6 .6
4 1 .4
2 7 .7
4 .0

3 1 .6
4 8 .9
3 2 .4
1 .5

139
30
75
33

164
49
77
39

206
68
94
44

57
9
40
9

73
15
47
11

93
21
59
13

4 1 .2
2 8 .4
5 2 .7
2 6 .9

4 4 .4
2 9 .9
6 1 .0
2 9 .7

4 5 .0
3 0 .7
6 2 .6
2 9 .8

1 8 .1
6 0 .4
2 .3
1 5 .4

2 7 .4
6 8 .7
1 8 .5
2 7 .0

2 5 .7
3 9 .8
2 2 .2
1 5 .0

2 7 .4
4 3 .5
2 5 .4
1 5 .4

M ale

Total, 14 and over...........................
1 4-24 years.................................
2 5 -5 4 years.................................
55 years and over......................
Fem ale

Total, 14 and over...........................
14 -2 4 years.................................
2 5 -5 4 years.................................
55 years and over......................
N

o n w h it e

M ale

Total. 14 and over...........................
1 4 -2 4 years.................................
2 5 -5 4 years.................................
55 years and over......................
Fem ale

Total. 14 and over...........................
1 4 -2 4 years.................................
25 -5 4 years.................................
55 years and over......................

North Dakota
A ll C l a sse s

Both sexes, 14 and over..................

426

469

520

231

269

306

5 4 .2

5 7 .3

5 8 .9

1 0 .2

1 6 .6

1 0 .7

1 3 .7

218
52
110
55

240
70
111
58

265
75
130
59

167
30
105
33

180
41
106
33

198
44
123
31

7 6 .9
5 7 .0
9 5 .3
5 9 .1

7 5 .1
5 8 .8
9 5 .2
5 6 .6

7 4 .8
5 8 .0
9 4 .6
5 2 .6

1 0 .3
3 4 .7
.9
5 .8

7 .7
3 9 .2
.8
1 .3

1 0 .3
7 .0
1 6 .9
1 .4

9 .7
5 .4
1 6 .1
- 5 .7

208
50
105
0 53

229
66
102
61

255
70
118
67

63
17
35
11

89
28
43
17

108
31
56
20

3 0 .3
3 3 .6
3 3 .2
2 1 .5

3 8 .6
4 2 .6
4 2 .2
2 8 .4

4 2 .4
4 4 .7
4 7 .8
3 0 .3

1 0 .1
3 1 .6
- 3 .3
1 6 .3

4 0 .2
6 7 .0
2 3 .0
5 3 .4

1 1 .3
6 .7
1 5 .6
9 .0

2 2 .0
1 2 .1
3 0 .7
1 6 .4

M ale

Total, 14 and over...........................
1 4-24 years.................................
2 5 -5 4 years.................................
55 years and over......................
Fem ale

Total, 14 and over...........................
1 4-24 years...................-............
2 5 -5 4 years.....................-..........
55 years and over______ ____
See footnotes at end of table.

80




T able

2

. P o pu l a t io n a n d L a b o r F o rce (E x c l u d in g A r m ed F o rces O v e r se a s ), b y A g e , C olor ,1 a n d S e x , fo r
R eg io n s a n d S t a t e s , 1960 a n d P r o jected 1970 a n d 1980—Continued
[Numbers in thousands]
Population (July 1)

Labor force (annual average)

Age, color, and sex
1960
(April 1)

1970

1980

1960
(April 1)

1970

1980

Labor force partici­
pation rates (percent)
1960

Percenit change
1960-70

1970-80

1970

1980 Popu­ Labor Popu­ Labor
lation force lation force

South Dakota
A ll C la sse s

Both sexes, 14 and over..................

463

523

575

254

301

341

54.7

57.6

59.2

12.9

233
52
117
65

261
76
119
66

286
83
137
67

181
31
111
39

199
49
113
37

218
52
129
37

77.7
60.1
95.4
59.8

76.5
63.8
95.6
56.6

76.3
63.1
94.8
54.7

45.6
1.9

230
51
114
65

263
74
115
73

289
79
132
78

72
17
40
15

102

122

31.5
33.8
35.3
23.0

38.8
41.5
44.0
28.0

42.4
43.4
49.1
29.9

18.8

10.0

13.2

9.9
54.7
2.0
-3 .8

9.9
8.4
15.3

9.7
7.2
14.4

1.0
12.6

41.1
80.0
26.0
37.2

6.7
14.1
7.4

11.3
27.5
14.9

M a le

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years.................................
25-54 years.................................
55 years and over......................

11.6
1.6

1.8

-

1.6

F em ale

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years.................................
25-54 years.................................
55 years and over__r.................

31
51
20

34
65
23

14.3
46.4

10.1

20.1

Nebraska
A ll C lasses

Both sexes, 14 and over..................

996

1,104

1,204

556

652

735

55.9

59.1

61.1

10.8

17.2

9.0

12.6

488
102
247
139

537
148
250
139

587
162
286
139

388
64
238

468
115
277
76

79.5
62.8
96.2
61.9

78.9
68.5
96.8
57.9

79.7
70.9
96.6
55.1

10.1

44.8
1.2
.4

9.3
57.9

86

424
102
242
81

9.2
9.0
14.6
- .4

10.3
12.9
14.4
-5 .2

506
103
250
155

566
147
250
170

617
158
281
178

168
38
95
36

228
65
116
48

267
74
140
53

33.2
36.8
37.8
23.2

40.3
44.3
46.3
28.0

43.3
46.8
50.0
29.7

11.5
42.8
9.2

35.5
71.9
22.3
31.8

12.2

8.9
7.9
4.9

21.2
11.0

M a le

Total, 14 and over.........................
14-24 years.................................
25-54 years..........................—
55 years and over.....................

-

1.8
6.2

Fem ale

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years.................................
25-54 years.................................
55 years and over.....................

17.0
13.9

Kansas
A ll C la sse s

Both sexes, 14 and over..................

1,538

1,665

1,822

847

980

1,117

55.1

58.8

61.3

8.2

15.6

9.5

14.0

754
164
390

200

809
234
368
206

883
249
419
214

593
102
371

636
162
355

704
181
405
119

78.7
62.1
95.2
60.0

78.7
69.3
96.3
58.0

79.8
72.5
96.5
55.6

7.2
43.0
—5.6
3.1

7.3
59.6
-4 .5
- .5

9.1
6.6
13.8
3.7

10.7
11.5
14.1
- .5

784
159
394
231

856
220
381
255

940
235
428
277

254
52
151
51

343
92
182
69

412
106
84

32.4
32.5
38.3
22.3

40.1
42.0
47.7
27.2

43.9
45.1
52.0
30.3

9.1
38.7
-3 .5
10.4

35.1
79.0
34.6

9.8
6.6
12.3
8.9

14.6
22.4
21.4

M ale

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years...................... .........
25-54 years.................................
55 years and over.....................
Fem ale

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years..............-.................
25-54 years.................................
55 years and over................ .

120

120

222

20.2

2a 1

See footnotes a t end of table.




81

T able

2.

P o pu l a t io n a n d L a b o r F orce (E x c l u d in g A rm ed F orces O v e r se a s ), b y A g e , C olor ,1 a n d S e x , fo r
R e g io n s a n d S t a t e s , 1960 a n d P ro jected 1970 a n d 1980—Continued
[Numbers in thousands]
Population (July 1)

Labor force (annual average)

Age, color, and sex
1960
(April 1)

1970

1980

1960
(April 1)

1970

1980

Labor force partici­
pation rates (percent)
1960

1970

Percent; change
1960-70

1970-80

1980 Popu­ Labor Popu­ Labor
lation force lation force

South Atlantic
A

ll

C

lasses

Both sexes, 14 and over-------------

9,963

12, 671

15,186

55.2

57.0

57.5

23.2

3,679
6,145
2,863

6,636
1,243
4,394
999

8, 033

1,986
4, 809
1,238

9,420
2,229
5,812
1,379

75.7
57.3
93.2
53.1

75.0
61.6
94.5
51.6

74.2
60.6
94.6
48.2

22.3
48.8
8.0
27.5

11, 506
3, 048
5, 486
2, 973

13, 724
3,482
6,510
3,732

3,327
626
2,237
463

2, 792

4,637
1,130
716

5,767
1,351
3,460
956

35.9
30.0
45.0
20.9

40.3
37.1
50.9
24.1

42.0
38.8
53.2
25.6

1, 776
508
932
336

2,203
760
1,041
402

2,737
922
1,353
462

1,275
267
826
182

1, 636
468
949
219

2, 022

1,950
513
1,045
392

2,386
777
1,124
485

2,916
939
1,392
585

847
144
591

18, 036

22,224

8, 764

2,168
4,713
1, 882

10, 718
3,226
5,091
2, 401

9,272
2,083
4,970
2,219

26, 411

27.2

18.8

19.9

59.8
9.5
23.9

18.4
14.0
20.7
19.2

17.3
12.2
20.9
11.4

24.1
46.3
10.4
34.0

39.4
80.5
24.8
54.5

19.3
14.3
18.7
25.5

24.4
19.6
23.9
33.4

M ale

Total, 14 and over-------------------14-24 years_______________
26-54 years________________
55 years and over__________

12,686

21.1

Fem ale

Total, 14 and over_____________
14-24 years________________
25-*54 years._______________
55 years and over__________
N

o n w h it e

M ale

Total, 14 and over_____________
14-24 ^ears________________
25-54 years________________
55 years and over__________

556
1,230
236

88.6

71.8
52.6
54.3

74.2
61.5
91.2
54.5

73.9
60.3
90.9
51.1

24.1
49.6
11.7
19.9

28.3
75.0
15.0
20.3

24.2
21.3
29.9
14.9

23.6
18.9
29.6
7.6

1,341
341
825
175

43.4
28.1
56.6
28.4

46.6
35.9
60.5
31.6

46.0
36.3
59.3
29.9

22.4
51.6
7.6
23.6

31.4
93.1
15.1
37.5

23.8
20.7

22.2
20.8

22.3
21.3
14.3

22.6

22.7

Fem ale

Total, 14 and over____________
14-24 years________________
25-54 years........................... .
55 years and over...............

111

1,112

279
680
153

20.6

Delaware
A

ll

C lasse s

Both sexes, 14 and over________

309

385

151
31
87
32

186
53
93
40

158
32
89
37

199
53
98
48

472

178

224

275

57.5

58.1

58.2

24.6

26.0

M a le

Total, 14 and over____________
14-24 years________________
25-54 years________________
55 years and over__________

227
67
49

18
84
19

146
33
90
23

177
43
107
27

80.2
57.4
95.8
60.0

78.2
61.4
96.5
57.8

77.9
64.3
96.2
55.0

23.2
70.4
6.4
23.1

20.1

111

82.2
7.2
18.6

25.0
19.4
23.9

245
65
118
62

57
10
37
9

78
19
46
14

98
23
56
19

35.8
32.0
42.0
24.2

39.4
35.8
46.8
28.2

40.0
35.9
47.0
30.7

25.9
63.0
10.9
29.5

38.7
82.4
23.6
50.9

23.2
24.1
20.1
28.6

121

22.0

21.6

30.9
19.1
18.0

Female-

14 and over_____________
14-24 years------- -----------25-54 years________________
55 years and over__________

T o ta l,

See footnotes at end of table.

82




24.8
24.2
40.1

20.6

T able

2.

P o pu l a t io n a n d L a b o r F orce (E x c l u d in g A rm ed F orces O v e r s e a s ), b y A g e , C olor ,1 a n d S e x , fo r
R e g io n s a n d S t a t e s , 1960 a n d P ro jected 1970 a n d 1980—Continued
[Numbers in thousands]
1

Age, color, and sex

Population (July 1)
1960
(April 1)

A ll Classes
Both sexes, 14 and over................

1970

Labor force (annual average)

1980

1960
(April 1)

1960

Percent change

Labor force partici­
pation rates (percent)

1970

1980

1970

1980

1960-70

1970-80

Popu­ Labor Popu­ Labor
lation force lation force

Maryland
2,155

2,717

3,282

1,242

1,596

1,922

57.6

58.7

58.6

26.1

28.5

1,053
233
607
213

1,314
381
655
278

1,579
454
779
346

843
134
578
131

1,032
234
631
167

1,231
282
7r 9
4
199

80.0
57.6
95.1
61.5

78.5
61.5
96.2
59.9

77.9
62.1
96.1
57.7

24.8
63.3
7.9
30.7

22.4
74.4
9.2
27.4

19.2
18.9
24.2

1,402
371
694
337

1,703
442
820
441

399
75
267
58

564
138
338
89

692
167
402
123

36.2
32.5
43.0
23.0

40.2
37.0
48.7
26.4

40.6
37.8
49.0
27.8

27.3
61.7
11.7
34.3

41.3
84.5
26.5
54.1

21.4
19.0
18.0
30.9

67
105
39

271
91
133
48

123
21
84
18

159
43
94

73.8
51.2
58.4

75.1
63.1
90.0
55.7

76.4
69.1
89.6
53.2

26.9
64.0
11.4
25.2

102.2

22

207
63
119
25

29.1
12.9
19.3

28.3
34.3
26.6
22.4

225
71
112
42

290
93
141
56

78
13
56

106
26
65
14

128
35
75
18

45.0
29.5
55.8
31.9

46.9
36.6
58.2
34.0

44.3
37.7
53.4
32.1

29.3
65.6
12.4
33.3

34.7
105.3
17.3
42.2

28.9
32.1
25.3
33.0

9.4

16.2

17.4

17.7
24.9
19.5
5.7

17.6
25.2
20.4
-1 .5

20.8

20.4

M a le

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years................................
25-54 years........... .....................
55 years and over................... .

20.1

19.3
20.3
18.8
19.6

F em ale

Total, 14 and over........................ .
14-24 years...............................
25-54 years........... ....................
55 years and over...................
N on white %

1,102

230
621
251

22.6

21.5
18.9
38.3

M a le

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years................................
25-54 years................ ..............
55 years and over.....................

167
41
94
31

211

88.8

30.4
47.0
26.0
17.0

Fem ale

Total, 14 and over.........................
14-24 years......... ......................
25-54 years------------- -----55 years and over.............. ......
A ll Classes
Both sexes, 14 and over..................

174
43
100
32

10

21.6

36.1
15.0
25.4

District of Columbia
579

636

739

369

403

474

63.7

63.4

64.0

10.0

265
56
148
61

291
76
147
68

343
95
176
72

206
33
136
37

224
46
139
39

264
58
167
38

77.6
59.2
91.8
60.3

77.0
61.2
94.2
57.4

77.0
61.3
95.0
53.5

9.7
35.6
- .5

313
62
167
84

345
84
166
95

397
103
190
104

163
26
107
29

179
41
107
32

51
126
33

51.9
42.0
64.1
35.0

51.9
48.3
64.6
33.0

52.9
49.6
66.1
31.8

133
28
82
22

173
49
93
31

228
70
118
40

104
16
75
13

135
28
88
19

177
41
113
23

78.5
55.3
91.6
59.3

77.9
57.5
94.4
60.9

151
33
92
26

197
55
103
38

253
76
126
52

80
11
59
9

106
24
67
14

138
36
84
18

52.7
34.4
64.3
35.0

53.9
43.8
65.2
37.9

M ale

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years.................................
25-54 years.................................
55 years and over......................

10.6

8.8

40.0
2.2
5.3

F em ale

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years.................................
25-54 years.................................
55 years and over......................
N onwhite

210

35.9
1.0
13.5

10.2

56.3
- .3
7.1

15.0
21.9
14.9
8.9

17.1
25.4
17.6
5.0

77.6
58.9
95.5
57.1

30.7
74.4
12.7
42.1

29.7
81.3
16.2
45.9

31.4
41.8
27.1
27.7

30.8
45.3
28.5
19.7

54.5
46.9
67.3
34.5

30.2
67.1
12.3
46.9

33.2
112.9
13.9
59.1

28.9
37.8
21.5
35.9

30.3
47.6
25.5
23.9

-

10.1

M ale

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years................................
25-54 years.................................
55 years and over.....................
Fem ale

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years.................................
25-54 years.................................
55 years and over.....................
See footnotes at end of table.




83

T a b l e 2. P o pu l a t io n a n d L a b o r F o rce (E x c l u d in g A rm ed F o rces O v e r se a s ), b y A g e , C olor ,1 a n d S e x , f o r
R e g io n s a n d S t a t e s , 1960 a n d P ro jected 1970 a n d 1980—Continued
[Numbers in thousands]
Population (July 1)

Labor force (annual average)

Labor force partici­
pation rates (percent)

1960
(April 1)

1960

Age, color, and sex
1960
(April 1)

1970

1980

1970

1980

Percent change
1960-70

1970-80

1970

1980 Popu­ Labor Popu­ Labor
lation force lation force

Virginia
A ll Classes
Both sexes, 14 and over..................

2,753

3,371

3,937

1,533

1,928

2,276

55.7

57.2

57.8

22.5

25.8

16.8

18.1

1,361
351
747
263

1,629
529
766
334

1,880
594
895
390

1,059
209
698
153

1,234
329
721
184

1,398
357
843
198

77.8
59.5
93.4
58.0

75.8
62.1
94.2
55.2

74.4
60.0
94.1

19.7
50.9
2.5
27.0

16.5
57.4
3.4
20.8

15.4
12.3
17.0
16.8

13.3
8.6
16.9
7.4

1,393
319
760
313

1,743
475
857
410

2,057
533
1,004
520

474
91
316
67

694
167
419
107

878
197
529
152

34.0
28.5
41.5
21.5

39.8
35.2
48.8
26.2

42.7
37.0
52.7
29.3

25.1
48.9
12.8
31.0

46.4
83.9
32.7
60.0

18.0
12.2
17.1
26.8

26.7
17.8
26.4
41.6

262
69
140
53

309
103
146
61

367
121
177
69

185
35
28

225
62
130
32

271
74
161
36

70.4
50.5
86.7
53.0

72.6
60.0
89.6
53.3

73.9
61.3
91.3
51.6

17.9
48.5
3.8
15.1

76.3
7.3
15.7

18.7
17.4
21.5
14.1

20.7
19.9
23.7
10.3

271
68
145
58

325
102
154
69

385
120
184
82

106
16
74
16

135
29
85

158
34
97
26

39.0
24.3
50.9
26.8

41.7
28.8
55.0
31.2

40.9
28.6
52.8
32.2

19.9
50.4
6.1
18.7

28.1
78.7
14.7
38.2

18.7
17.3
19.3
19.4

16.4
16.4
14.6
23.5

14.1

4.9

8.9

7.4
52.7
1.0
4.1

5.6
-5 .8
12.7
4.4

7.4
-3 .0
13.2
-1 .3

4.2
31.8
63.2 -5 .6
4.9
17.7
49.1 - 11.8

10.8
21.8

M ale

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years— ...........................
25-54 years.................................
55 years and over......................
F em ale

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years.................................
25-54 years.................................
55 years and over.....................
N onwhite
M ale

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years.................................
25-54 years.................................
55 years and over......................

122

21.6

F em ale

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years.................................
25-54 years.................................
55 years and over....... .............

21

West Virginia
A ll Classes
Both sexes, 14 and over________

1,295

1,334

1,399

588

671

731

45.4

50.3

52.3

3.0

627
145
322
160

648
173
305
170

684
163
344
178

426
59
290
77

457
90
287
80

491
88
324
79

67.8
40.8
89.9
47.9

70.6
52.5
93.9
47.0

71.8
54.0
94.3
44.4

3.3
18.9
-5 .3

668

686

715
164
330

162
32
104
27

214
52
122
40

240
56
135
49

24.3
21.2
29.7
15.9

31.2
30.0
38.8

33.6
2.7
34.3 15.4
41.0 - 10.0
22.0
17.5

M a le

Total, 14 and over_____________
14-24 years________________
25-54 years______ _________
55 years and over__________

6.2

-

Fem ale

Total, 14 and over_____________
14-24 years________________
25-54 years____ ___________
55 years and over.............. ......
See footnotes at end of table.

84




151
349
168

174
314
198

221

20.2

12.2

7.9

T a b l e 2. P o pu l a t io n a n d L a b o r F orce (E x c l u d in g A rm ed F orces O v e r se a s ), b y A g e , C olor ,1 a n d S e x , f o r
R e g io n s a n d S t a t e s , 1960 a n d P r o jec ted 1970 a n d 1980—Continued
[Numbers in thousands]
Population (July 1)

Age, color, and sex

1960
(April 1)
A ll Classes
Both sexes, 14 and over................

1970

Labor force (annual average)

1980

Labor force partici­
pation rates (percent)

1960
(April 1)

1960

1970

1980

1970

Percent change
1960-70

1970-80

1980 Popu­ Labor Popu­ Labor
lation force lation force

North Carolina
3,119

3,693

4,210

1,754

2,145

2,444

56.3

58.1

58.1

18.4

22.2

14.0

14.0

1,518
417
813
288

1,794
565
865
364

2,041
600
1,005
436

1,154
235
754
165

1,345
342
809
194

1,500
353
936

76.1
56.4
92.8
57.2

74.9
60.5
93.5
53.1

73.5
58.8
93.1
48.4

18.2
35.4
6.4
26.6

16.5
45.4
7.3
17.5

13.8
6.3
16.2
19.6

3.3
15.7
9.0

1,601
394
863
343

1,899
527
919
453

2,168
559
1,053
556

600
116
411
73

800
189
496
115

201

944
593
150

37.5
29.5
47.6
21.1

42.1
35.8
54.0
25.4

43.5
35.9
56.3
27.0

18.6
33.7
6.5
31.9

33.3
62.3
20.7
58.7

14.2
6.1
14.5
22.9

18.0
6.5
19.4
30.7

337
107
169
61

416
154
189
73

498
168
246
83

234
52
148
34

306
95
170
40

366
105
219
42

69.4
49.0
87.4
55.0

73.4
61.6
90.3
55.0

73.5
62.2
89.1
50.6

23.4
44.7
11.3
19.7

30.7
81.9
15.1
19.9

19.6
8.9
30.6
13.7

19.7
10.0
28.8
4.4

371
105
194
72

446
155
202
89

524
169
249
106

148
25
103

194
47
118
29

225
49
142
34

40.0
23.6
53.3
28.4

43.5
30.1
58.5
32.6

42.9
28.8
57.0
32.1

20.5
47.9
4.6
23.2

30.9
89.0
14.8
41.8

17.4
9.2
23.1
18.7

M a le

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years........... ......... .........
25-54 years............................
55 years and over.....................

211

11.6

F em ale

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years................................
25-54 years________________
55 years and over.................
N onwhite
M ale

Total, 14 and over..................... .
14-24 years................................
25-54 years................................
55 years and over....... .............
Fem ale

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years................................
25-54 years......................... ......
55 years and over.....................
All Classes
Both sexes, 14 and over..................

20

15.8
4.4
16.7

20.0

South Carolina
1,579

1,897

2,183

896

1,109

1,270

56.7

58.5

58.2

20.1

23.7

15.1

14.6

769
233
403
133

920
321
426
172

1,060
341
511
208

585
139
373
74

695
207
398
91

212

784
472
100

76.2
59.4
92.7
55.6

75.6
64.5
93.2
52.6

74.0
62.3
92.4
48.0

19.7
37.5
5.9
30.2

18.8
49.5
6.6
23.2

15.2
6.2
19.8
20.5

18.8
9.9

811
431
170

977
290
466
220

1,124
306
544
274

311
63
211
37

413
109
251
53

486
120
301
65

38.3
29.8
49.0
21.9

42.3
37.7
53.9
23.9

43.2
39.3
55.3
23.8

20.5
38.1
8.1
29.9

32.9
74.4
19.1
41.7

15.0
5.6
16.6
24.2

17.6
19.6
23.6

230
80
110
40

284
112
125
47

339
120
166
53

159
41
96

206
69
112
25

240
67
147
26

68.9
51.6
87.8
52.3

72.6
61.1
90.1
53.3

70.6
55.7
49.7

23.3
40.1
13^7
15.9

66.0

29.8
16.8
18.1

19.7
6.9
33.7
12.9

16.5
-2 .5
30.6
5.4

262
78
130
53

310
1J2
137
61

357
118
169
70

102
20
68

133
39
78
16

154
43
94
16

38.8
25.7
52.3
25.1

42.8
35.0
56.8
25.7

43.0
36.8
55.8
22.7

18.1
42.4
5.2
14.0

30.5
93.9
14.3
17.0

15.4
5.7
23.2
15.5

11.1
21.1

M a le

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years.................................
25-54 yeart...........................
55 years and over....... ...........

12.8
2.6

F em ale

Total, 14 and over___ _________
14-24 years................................
25-54 years.................................
55 years and over......................
N on white

210

M a le

Total, 14 and over......................
14-24 years................................
25-54 years............................. .
55 years and over......................

21

88.0

F em ale

Total, 14 and over....................... .
14-24 years........... ....................
25-54 years.............. ........ ........
55 years and over.....................

13

10.1

15.9
1.9

See footnotes at end of table.




85

T a b l e 2. P o pu l a t io n a n d L a b o r F orce (E x c l u d in g A rm ed F o rces O v e r s e a s ), b y A g e , C olor ,1 a n d S e x , fo r
R e g io n s a n d S t a t e s , 1960 a n d P ro jected 1970 a n d 1*80— Continued
[Numbers in thousands]
Population (July 1)

Labor force (annual average)

Age, color, and sex
1960
(April 1)
A ll Classes
Both sexes, 14 and over............ .

1970

1980

1960
(April 1)

1970

Labor force partici­
pation rates (percent)

1980

1960

1970

Percent change
1960-70

1970-80

1980 Popu­ Labor Popu­ Labor
lation force lation force

Georgia
2,688

3,275

3,792

1,516

1,924

2,228

56.4

58.7

58.6

21.8

26.9

1,290
340
695
255

1,576
499
756
321

1,824
554
897
373

990
202
647
141

1,189
311
710
169

1,348
328
843
177

76.8
59.5
93.0
55.5

75.5
62.2
94.0
52.5

73.9
59.3
93.9
47.4

46.8
8.8
25.8

22.2

20.1

1,398
333
743
321

1,699
472
816
411

1,968
523
951
494

525
103
353
69

734
182
447
105

880
198
549
132

37.6
31.0
47.5
21.4

43.2
38.5
54.9
25.6

44.7
37.9
57.8
26.7

21.5
41.7
9.7
27.9

322
97
160
65

395
142
180
74

480
166
236
77

229
54
141
33

294
92
165
38

350
99
215
37

71.2
55.8
88.5
51.5

74.4
64.5
91.5
52.0

73.0
59.8
91.0
46.7

379
100
195
84

448
145
204
99

526
168
248

163
29

209
51
129
29

238
53
156
30

42.9
29.3
57.1
26.3

46.7
35.2
63.3
29.4

15.8

15.8

53.4
9.9
19.2

15.7
10.9
18.7
16.2

13.3
5.7
18.7
4.9

39.8
75.7
26.6
53.1

10.8

15.8
16.5

19.8
9.2
25.5

21.5
16.8
31.2
6.8

19.1
8.4
30.4
-4.1

21.6

17.5
16.0
11.4

20.6
1.6

M ale

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years.............................. .
26-54 years................................
55 years and over......................
Fem ale

Total, 14 and over..........................
14-24 years________________
25-54 years_____ __________
55 years and over.................. .
N onwhite

20.1

22.8

M ale

Total, 14 and over______ _____
14-24 years............. ........ ..........
25-54 years________________
55 years and over.....................

45.7
12.5
13.7

28.5
68.2
16.4
14.7

45.2
31.2
62.8
26.8

18.1
44.4
4.7
17.8

28.6
73.5
16.1
31.5

22.8

Fem ale

Total, 14 and over....... ..................
14-24 years................................
25-54 years............. ..................
55 years and over....................
A ll Classes
Both sexes, 14 and over............ .

111

111
22

13.7
3.0

Florida
3,558

4,916

6,397

1,887

2,672

3,566

53.0

54.3

55.8

38.1

41.6

30.1

33.5

1,729
361
891
478

2,359
629
1,077
653

3,049
812
1,425
812

1,251
213
835
203

1,711
394
1,025
292

2,228
508
1,370
349

72.4
59.2
93.7
42.5

72.5
62.7
95.2
44.7

73.1
62.6
96.1
43.0

36.4
74.4
20.9
36.8

36.8
84.7
22.8
44.1

29.2
29.0
32.3
24.3

30.2
28.9
33.7
19.5

1,829
352
945
532

2,556
601
1,154
801

3,348
786
1,501
1,061

636
110
431
95

960
233
565
162

1,339
337
770
232

34.7
31.1
45.6
17.9

37.6 40.0
38.8 ' 42.8
48.9 51.3
20.2
21.9

39.8
70.7
22.1
50.6

51.1
112.9
31.1
70.3

31.0
30.8
30.0
32.5

39.4
44.1
36.3
43.5

276
74
153
49

361
115
182
64

493
167
248
78

43
139
28

276
70
169
37

367
95
230
41

76.2
58.1
91.0
57.5

76.4
61.2
92.7
57.0

74.4
56.8
92.9
53.3

31.0
56.0
19.4
29.6

31.3
64.2
21.7
28.5

36.4
45.4
36.1
21.1

32.9
35.1
36.2
13.1

290
74
162
54

378
121
185
72

513
175
245
93

152
27
107
17

206
57
124
25

274
84
162
29

52.3
36.7
66.3
31.9

54.5
47.2
67.1
34.5

53.4
48.0
66.0
30.8

30.4
63.2
14.4
33.4

35.9 35.5
109.8 44.6
15.9 . 32.2
44.0 29.0

32.8
47.1
29.8
15.2

M ale

Total, 14 and over..........................
14-24 years................................
25-54 years................................
55 years and over....... .............
Fem ale

Total, 14 and over_____________
14-24 years________________
25-54 years................................
55 years and over.............. .......
N onwhite
M ale

Total, 14 and over................... .......
14-24 years________________
24-54 years.................................
55 years and over...................

210

Fem ale

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years______ _________
25-54 years........................... .
55 years and over...................
See footnotes at end of table.

86




T a b l e 2. P o pu l a t io n a n d L a b o r F orce (E x c l u d in g A rm ed F o rces O v e r se a s ), b y A g e , C olor ,1 a n d S e x , fo r
R e g io n s a n d S t a t e s , 1960 a n d P ro jected 1970 a n d 1980—Continued
[Numbers in thousands]
Age, color, and sex

Population (July 1)
I960
(April 1)

1970

Labor force (annual average)

1980

1960
(April 1)

1970

1980

Labor force partici­
pation rates (percent)
1960

1970

1980

Percent change
1960-70

1970-80

Popu­ Labor Popu­ Labor
lation force lation force

East South Central
All Classes
Both sexes, 14 and over..................

8,267

9,561

10,802

4,244

5,185

6,061

51.3

54.2

56.1

15.7

22.2

13.0

16.9

3,988
1,012
2,041
935

4,607
1,369
2,173
1,064

5,220
1,478
2,584
1,158

2,908
525
1,883
500

3,318
751
2,039
528

3,771
813
2,427
531

72.9
51.8
92.2
53.5

72.0
54.8
93.8
49.6

72.2
55.0
93.9
45.9

15.5
35.3
6.5
13.8

14.1
43.1
8.3
5.5

13.3
7.9
18.9

13.7
8.2
19.0

4,279
998
2,209
1,072

4,955
1,347
2,303
1,305

5,582
1,443
2,646
1,492

1,336
258
879
199

1,867
464
1,117
285

2,290
531
1,413
346

31.2
25.9
39.8
18.6

37.7
34.5
48.5
21.9

41.0
36.8
53.4
23.2

15.8
34.9
4.3

39.7
79.9
27.1
43.5

12.7
7.2
14.9
14.3

22.7
14.4
26.5

781
225
360
197

921
331
391
198

1,098
379
528
191

529
108
318
103

650
189
359

67.7
47.9
88.5
52.5

70.5
57.1
91.6
51.5

71.0
55.1
91.1
46.9

17.8
47.1
8.7

22.7
75.1

102

780
208
481
90

1.0

12.6
- 1.0

19.2
14.4
34.9
-3 .6

10.4
34.2

901
234
444
223

1,038
342
449
246

1,207
392
556
259

338
57
224
56

424
104
253
67

498
115
317
65

37.5
24.5
50.4
25.3

40.9
30.4
56.3
27.4

41.3
29.4
57.0
25.3

15.2
46.3
1.2
10.5

25.7
81.1
13.0
19.9

16.3
14.5
23.8
5.1

17.3
11.1
25.3
3.1

11.6

17.8

10.1

16.0

10.4
31.5

9.3
36.9
4.2

9.8
6.1
13.9
6.7

8.9
14.4

M ale

Total, 14 and over.......................
14-24 years................................
25-54 years................................
55 years and over......................

8.8

.6

Fem ale

Total, 14 and over..................... .
14-24 years________________
25-54 years................................
55 years and over.....................
N onwhite

21.8

21.2

M ale

Total, 14 and over.......................
14-24 years................................
25-54 years.............................
55 years and over.....................

20.0

-

12.2

F em ale

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years______ _________
25-54 years...................... ..........
55 years and over.................
A ll Classes
Both sexes, 14 and over..................

Kentucky
2,111

2,357

2,595

1,034

1,218

1,413

49.0

51.7

54.4

1,036
259
522
256

1,144
340
527
277

1,256
361
600
296

743
136
475
133

812
186
495
131

202

901
566
133

71.7
52.4
91.1
51.8

71.0
54.6
93.9
47.4

71.7
56.0
94.3
45.0

321
556
336

1,339
339
623
377

291
56
186
50

406
102
236

512
126
302
84

27.1
23.1
34.0
17.3

33.5
31.8
42.5
20.3

38.2
37.2
48.5

39.4
82.0
27.2
37.1

10.4
5.7

22.2

32.5
1.9
17.1

12.1
12.1

26.0
23.9
27.9
22.7

71
16
35

75
24
31
19

84
30
36
18

48
9
30

53
16
28
9

62
33

71.6
65.6
90.4
48.4

5.2
74.0
50.9
92.5 - 10.1
46.9 -5 .3

10.5
85.6
5.5
- 6.8

22.1

8

53.4
86.0
49.2

11.9
14.4
-5 .4

15.7
27.0
17.1
-8 .3

77
16
39

85
24
38
23

97
30
44
24

31
4

36

41
11
23
7

40.2
27.6
51.5
28.8

42.6
34.2
55.5
30.5

42.4
37.2
53.1
29.6

17.0
88.5
3.6
11.3

14.7
24.1
15.4
4.0

14.1
35.1
10.5
.7

M ale

Total, 14 and over....... ..................
14-24 years.................................
25-54 years...... .........................
55 years and over.....................

1.0
8.2

-.8

11.0
1.2

Fem ale

Total, 14 and over....... ................
14-24 years.................................
25-54 years______ _________
55 years and over......................
N onwhite

1, 074
242
545
287

1,212

68

12.8

M ale

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years...............................
25-54 years.............................
55 years and over......................

20

10

20

68.1

68.2

Fem ale

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years............................. i.
25-54 years.................................
55 years and over___a.............

22

20
6

8
21

7

10.2

52.6
-3 .8
5.1

See footnotes at end of table.




87

T a b l e 2. P o pu l a t io n a n d L a b o r F o rce (E x c l u d in g A rm ed F o rces O v e r se a s ), b y A g e , C olor ,1 a n d S e x , f o r
R e g io n s a n d S t a t e s , 1960 a n d P ro jected 1970 a n d 1980—Continued
[Numbers in thousands]
Age, color, and sex

1960
(April 1)
All Classes
Both sexes, 14 and over____ ____

Labor force (annual average)

Population (July 1)
1970

1980

Labor force partici­
pation rates (percent)

1960
(April 1)

1960

1970

1980

1970

Percent change
1960-70

1970-80

1980 Popu­ Labor Popu­ Labor
lation force lation force

Tennessee
2,499

2,929

3,287

1,314

1,617

1,860

52.6

55.2

56.6

17.2

23.1

12.2

15.0

1,199
293
630
275

1,407*
400
682
325

1,587
427
797
362

887
153
583
150

1,016
215
637
164

1,143
232
743
168

74.0
52.4
92.5
54.6

72.2
53.8
93.4
50.4

72.0
54.3
93.2
46.3

17.4
36.5
8.2
18.0

14.5
39.9
9.2
8.9

6.9
16.9
11.4

12.5
7.9
16.7
2.4

1,300
295
685
321

1,522
399
720
402

1,700
422
809
469

427
82
283
61

601
147
362
92

717
160
442
115

32.8
27.8
41.3
19.2

39.5
36.8
50.3
23.0

42.2
38.0
54.6
24.6

17.0
35.5
5.1
25.4

41.0
79.3
27.8
50.3

11.7
5.6
12.4
16.4

19.3
9.1
24.7

77
23

143
39
82
23

170
45
104

88.1

69.2
48.1
52.8

54.4
88.4
49.2

67.2
52.9
86.4
44.4

19.6
59.8
5.5
7.0

17.8
80.7
5.7

82
12
57
14

103
23
62
18

119
29
72
18

40.8
25.3
53.6
28.3

42.8
31.2
57.8
30.5

42.1
32.0
55.8
28.1

M ale

Total, 14 and over_____________
14-24 years________________
25-54 years...............................
55 years and over................ .

12.8

F em ale

Total, 14 and over_____________
14-24 years________________
25-54 years________________
55 years and over......................
N onwhite

22.0

M a le

Total, 14 and over....... ...................
14-24 years................................
25-54 years................................
55 years and over......................

176
45
88
44

71
92
47

253
85
120
47

240
75
107
58

283
90
130
63

211

122
21

21

68.1

- .1

19.9
30.3
.7

18.6
16.7
27.3
-9 .2

18.7
58.4
1.0
18.1

24.6
95.2
9.0
27.4

18.0
19.8
21.7
8.9

22.8

20.2

F em ale

Total, 14 and over.............. ...........
14-24 years................................
25-54 years................................
55 years and over......................

202

47
106
49

15.9
17.7
.4

Alabama
All Classes
Both sexes, 14 and over..................

2,218

2,580

2,980

1,153

1,415

1,684

52.0

54.8

56.5

16.3

22.7

15.5

19.1

1,060
270
556
234

1,239
365
598
275

1,440
400
731
309

779
139
516
125

898
200
561
138

1,042
214
686
143

73.6
51.4
92.8
53.3

72.5
54.7
93.8
50.0

72.4
53.3
93.8
46.2

16.9
35.3
7.6
17.8

15.2
43.9
8.6
10.4

16.3
9.6
22.3

16.1
6.9
22.4
3.6

1,158
277
607
273

1,341
369
631
341

1,540
401
739
400

373
73
250
50

517
128
313
76

642
147
403
92

32.2
26.4
41.1
18.5

38.5
34.8
49.6
22.2

41.7
36.6
54.5
23.1

15.8
33.0
3.9
25.1

38.4
75.0
25.3
50.1

14.8
8.7
17.2
17.0

24.2
14.4
28.9

280
83
130
66

333
120
145
69

400
135
197
69

188
40
115
34

231
65
132
35

276
65
179
32

67.2
47.5
88.0
50.9

69.5
54.0
90.9
51.0

68.9
48.4
90.7
46.7

19.1
43.2
11.4
4.0

23.2
63.0
15.0
4.1

12.9
35.9
- .1

- 8.6

329
88
163
78

375
124
164
87

434
139
202
93

124
22
83
19

155
38
94
23

180
40
118
23

37.5
25.0
50.7
24.2

41.3
30.6
57.2
26.7

41.4
28.6
58.3
24.1

13.9
40.8
.7
11.3

25.5
72.3
13.7
22.7

15.8
12.0
23.1
7.2

16.1
4.6
25.4
-3.1

M ale

Total, 14 and over....... ..................
14^24 years............. ..................
25-54 years...............................
55 years and over__________

12.1

F em ale

Total. 14 and over...........................
14-24 years________________
25-54 years.................. ..............
55 years and over.....................
N onwhite

21.8

M ale

Total. 14 and over.......................
14-24 years................................
25-54 years................................
55 years and over.....................

20.2

19.3
1.2
35.5

Fem ale

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years.................................
25-54 years.................................
55 years and over___ ______
See footnotes at end of table.

88




T

a b le

2.

P

o p u l a t io n

R

a n d L a b o r
e g io n s a n d

F
S

o r c e
ta t e s

,

(E

x c l u d in g
an d

1960

P

A

rm ed F o r c es
r o je c t e d

1970

O

v e r sea s
a n d

),

by

A

g e

, C

1980—Continued

o lo r

,1

a n d

S

e x

,

fo r

[Numbers in thousands]
Population (July 1)

Labor force (annual average)

Age, color, and sex
1960
(April 1)

1970

1980

1960
(April 1)

1980

1970

Labor force partici­
pation rates (percent)
1960

1970

Percent change
1960-70

1970-80

1980 Popu­ Labor Popu­ Labor
lation force lation force

Mississippi
A ll C la sses

Both sexes, 14 and over.................

1,439

1,696

1,939

743

935

1,104

51.6

55.1

56.9

17.8

25.9

14.4

18.0

693
190
333
170

817
264
366
187

936
289
455
192

498
97
308
93

592
151
346
95

684
165
431

88

71.8
50.8
92.5
54.6

72.5
57.1
94.7
51.0

73.1
57.1
94.7
45.9

17.8
38.7
9.8
9.8

19.0
55.9
12.4
2.5

14.6
9.4
24.6

15.6
9.6
24.6
-7 .5

746
184
371
191

879
257
396
225

1,003
281
475
247

245
47
161
37

343
87
207
49

419
98
267
55

32.8
25.5
43.3
19.5

39.0
33.9
52.1

41.8
34.9
56.1

86.1

22.1

17.9
39.8
6.8
18.3

40.0
28.5
31.7

14.1
9.2
19.8
9.7

255
81
107

66

302
116
123
64

361
129
175
57

171
38
97
36

70
117
35

272
78
166
28

67.3
47.3
90.0
54.8

73.2
60.1
95.2
54.5

75.3
60.4
94.7
49.3

18.7
43.4
14.3
-4 .1

29.1 19.4
82.2 11.0
42.5
20.8
-4 .6 -10.2

11.7
41.8
-18.8

292
83
136
73

338
120
141
78

392
134
181
78

130
34
77
19

158
36
104
18

34.4
23.0
47.4
23.2

38.6
28.8
54.5
24.9

40.2
26.9
57.4
22.9

15.6
44.1
3.3
6.2

29.6
80.7
18.7
13.8

16.2
11.9
28.5
.4

20.9
4.5
35.4
-7 .6

M ale

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years.................................
25-54 years.................................
55 years and over......................

2.6

F em ale

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years.................................
25-54 years.................................
55 years and over.............. —
N

21.8

22.2

12.4
29.0
11.4

o n w h it e

M ale

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years.................................
25-54 years.................................
55 years and over......................

221

22.8

F em ale

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years.................................
25-54 years.................................
55 years and over.....................

101

19
65
17

West South Central
A ll C l a sse s

Both sexes, 14 and over..................

11,645

13,917

16,180

6,192

7,714

9,267

53.2

55.4

57.3

19.5

24.6

16.3

20.1

5,666
1,366
2,993
1,307

6,721
2,016
3,172
1,533

7,794
2,292
3,800
1,701

4,308
762
2,813
733

5,037
1,204
3,009
824

5,852
1,383
3,611
858

76.0
55.8
94.0
56.1

74.9
59.7
94.9
53.8

75.1
60.3
95.0
50.4

18.6
47.6
6.0
17.3

16.9
57.9
7.0
12.4

16.0
13.7
19.8

20.0

11.0

16.2
14.9
4.0

5,979
1,346
3,150
1,484

7,196
1,957
3,375
1,863

8,386
2,217
3,986
2,183

1,884
356
1,230
297

2,677
654
1,572
451

3,415
826
2,022
568

31.5
28.5
39.1
20. d

37.2
33.4
46.6
24.2

40.7
37.2
50.7
26.0

20.3
45.4
7.2
35.6

42.1
83.6
27.8
51.7

1 6 -5
13.3
18.1
17.2

27.6
26.2
28.6
26.1

849
230
411
208

1,017
356
448
213

1,248
441
592
215

576
112
363
101

721
211
407
103

915
275
542
98

67.8
48.5
88.4
48.6

70.9
59.3
91.0
48.0

73.3
62.3
91.6
45.6

19.9
54.8
9.0
2.8

25.2
89.2
12.1
1.5

22.7
23.8
32.3

26.9
30.1
33.1
-4 .2

953
238
487
228

1,138
365
514
259

1,379
450
645
284

363
59
252
53

481
114
298
69

599
148
378
73

38.1
24.6
51.7
23.2

42.3
31.3
58.1
26.5

43.4
32.8
58.6
25.9

19.5
53.6
5.5
13.8

32.5
95.1
18.5
29.6

23.3
25.5
9.5

M ale

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years.................................
25-54 years.................................
55 years and over......................
F em ale

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years.................................
25-54 years.................................
55 years and over.....................
N

o n w h it e

M ale

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years.................................
25-54 years.................................
55 years and over......................

.8

F em ale

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years.................................
25-54 years.................................
55 years and over......................

21.2

24.6
29.2
26.6
7.1

See footnotes at end of table.




89

T

a b le

2.

P

o p u l a t io n

R

an d L a b o r
e g io n s a n d

F
S

o r ce
ta t e s

,

(E

x c l u d in g
an d

1960

P

A

rm ed F o r c es
r o je c t e d

1970

O

v e r sea s
an d

),

by

A

g e

, C

1980—Continued

,1

o lo r

an d

S

e x

,

fo r

[Numbers in thousands]
Population (July 1)

Labor force (annual average)

Age, color, and sex
1960
(April 1)

1970

1980

1960
(April 1)

1970

1980

Labor force partici­
pation rates (percent)
1960

1970

1980

Percent change
1960-70

1970-80

Popu­ Labor Popu­ Labor
lation force lation force

Arkansas
A ll C l a sse s

Both sexes, 14 and over............
Male
Total, 14 and over_____________
14-24 years________________
25-54 years________________
55 years and over__________
Female
Total, 14 and over_____________
14-24 years_____________
25-54 years_____ ________
55 years and over________
N

1,249

1,459

1,616

610

769

894

48.8

52.7

55.4

16.8

26.1

10.8

16.3

606
144
289
172

707
197
321
188

785
215
379
191

426
73
267
87

497
109
301
87

556
119
355
82

70.3
50.5
92.2
50.2

70.3
55.2
93.7
46.4

70.8
55.3
93.7
42.8

16.5
36.2
11.0
9.3

16.6
49.0
12.8
.9

9.4
17.9

11.1

11.8

9.5
17.9
-6 .6

643
141
318
184

752
195
336

221

831
381
239

183
33
118
32

272
65
162
45

339
78
209
52

28.5
23.6
37.2
17.2

36.1
33.3
48.1
20.4

40.8
37.1
54.8

21.6

17.0
38.3
5.7

48.2
95.1
36.5
42.6

10.5
8.5
13.2
8.2

24.6
20.9
29.0
14.4

113
31
47
35

130
47
51
32

154
57
70
28

72
14
41
17

27
46
15

107
32
63

11

64.0
44.6
88.1
49.2

67.9
57.5
91.0
46.4

69.5
57.3
90.5
41.4

15.2 22.3 18.6
50.9 94.5 19.5
9.1 12.8 37.7
-8 .9 -14.1 -13.2

21.4
18.9
36.8
-22.5

128
31
60
37

145
48
59
39

168
57
73
38

39
6
26

52
12
31
9

65
15
41

30.8
19.4
42.9

35.6
25.9
52.0
22.6

38.6
27.2
56.4
21.3

13.9
52.6
-1 .2
5.5

31.7
104.0
19.5
15.0

15.3
19.1
24.3
-2 .9

25.1
24.9
34.8
-8 .6

211

20.2

1.2

o n w h it e

Male
Total, 14 and over_____________
14-24 years_______ ______
25-54 years________________
55 years and over__________
Female
Total, 14 and over_____________
14-24 years________________
25-54 years________________
55 years and over__________

8

88

8

20.8

Louisiana
A ll C la sse s

Both sexes, 14 and over............ .
Male
Total, 14 and over..........................
14-24 years________________
25-54 years________________
55 years and over__________
Female
Total, 14 and over____________
14-24 years________________
25-54 years____________ ...
55 years and over....................
N

2,164

2,628

3,154

1,092

1,375

1,711

50.5

52.3

54.2

21.4

25.9

20.0

24.4

1,037
256
557
224

1,268
385
613
270

1,527
451
767
310

756
126
516
114

907
208
568
131

1,104
253
712
140

72.9
49.4
92.6
51.0

71.5
54.0
92.7
48.5

72.3
56.0
92.8
45.3

22.3
5Q.6
10.0
20.4

19.9
64.7
10.2
14.5

20.4
17.0
25.1
14.6

21.4
25.3
7.0

1,127
269
595
262

1,360
391
637
332

1,626
455
776
395

336
66
225
46

468
113
284
70

606
141
374
90

29.8
24.4
37.7
17.5

34.4
29.0
44.6
21.2

37.3
31.1
48.2
22.9

20.7
45.2
7.1
26.3

39.3
72.7
26.6
53.7

19.6
16.4
21.7
19.3

29.5
24.7
31.7
28.3

299
87
142
70

367
131
164
73

459
159
225
75

195
40
125
30

246
72
143
31

319
91
197
30

65.3
45.8
43.0

66.9
54.7
87.3
43.1

69.5
57.1
87.8
40.8

23.1
51.8
15.0
4.1

26.2
81.4
13.9
4.2

24.8
21.3
37.5

29.7
26.6
38.3
-2 .7

343
92
171
80

412
138
183
91

502
166
236

123
21
85
16

162
37
104

204
42
139
24

35.8
23.3
49.7

39.4
26.5
56.8
23.7

40.7
25.2
58.8
23.8

32.3
71.5
22.3
33.2

20.4
28.6
10.3

21.8

o n w h it e

Male
Total, 14 and over..........................
14-24 years_______________1
25-54 years________________
55 years and over__________
Female
Total, 14 and over........................
14-24 years________________
25-54 years________ _______
55 years and over.....................
See footnotes at end of table.

90




100

21

88.1

20.1

20.1

50.9
7.0
12.9

2.8

21.8

25.9
14.6
33.0
10.9

T a b l e 2. P o pu l a t io n a n d L a b o r F orce (E x c l u d in g A rm ed F o rces O v e r se a s ), b y A g e , C olor ,1 an d S e x , fo r
R e g io n s a n d S t a t e s , 1960 a n d P ro jected 1970 a n d 1980—Continued
[Numbers in thousands]
Age, color, and sex

Population (July 1)
1960
(April 1)

1970

Labor force (annual average)

1980

Labor force partici­
pation rates (percent)

1960
(April 1)

1960

1970

1980

Percent change
1960-70

1970-80

1970

1980 Popu­ Labor Popu­ Labor
lation foroe lation force

Oklahoma
A ll C l a sse s

Both sexes, 14 and over.................
Male
Total, 14 and over.........................
14-24 years____ ___________
25-54 years________________
55 years and over__________
Female
Total, 14 and over..........................
14-24 years________________
25-54 years-----------------------55 years and over__________
N

on

1,668

1,881

2,054

854

1,016

1,160

51.2

54.0

56.5

12.7

19.0

9.2

14.1

812
190
406
216

908
256
418
233

991
273
476
241

596
104
379
114

663
153
393
117

732
168
450
113

73.5
54.8
93.2
52.8

73.1
59.7
94.0
50.2

73.8
61.6
94.4
47.0

35.3
2.9

11.8

47.3
3.8

9.1
6.6
13.9
3.4

10.3
10.1
14.4
-3 .2

856
179
431
246

973
242
442
289

1,063
257
490
316

258
47
162
48

353
86
198

68

428
107
242
79

30.1
26.3
37.6
19.6

36.3
35.7
45.0
23.5

40.3
41.8
49.3
25.1

13.6
35.2
2.5
17.3

37.1
83.6
22.5
40.8

11.0

9.3
6.3
9.2

24.1
21.5
16.8

18
30
18

77
28
32
18

91
34
41
16

40
7
25

8

49
15
27
7

62
19
36
7

60.5
41.3
82.5
42.4

64.0
52.7
41.3

67.4
56.1
87.8
39.5

16.2
54.1
4.2
-1.4

23.0
96.5
9.3
-3 .9

18.9
21.5
30.5
-5.9

25.2
29.4
32.3
-10.0

74
18
37
19

87
27
38

103
34
46
23

23
4
16
4

31
9
17
5

39
13
21
5

31.6
20.9
42.5

20.8

36.0
32.1
46.0
23.5

37.4
37.3
44.8

22.6

17.6
54.0
3.4
11.3

34.1
136.7
11.9
25.6

18.7
23.6
22.9
5.3

23.4
43.4
19.7

8.0

11.2
2.8

21.2

w h it e

Male
Total, 14 and over..........................
14-24 years______________
25-54 years________________
55 years and over__________
Female
Total, 14 and over_____________
14-24 years________________
25-54 years________________
55 years and over__________

66

22

86.6

1.6

Texas
A ll C l a sse s

Both sexes, 14 and over.................
Male
Total, 14 and over___ _________
14-24 years________________
25-54 years________________
55 years and over__________
Female
Total, 14 and over_____________
14-24 years________________
25-54 years________________
55 years and over__________
N

on

6,563

7,949

9,357

3,636

4,553

5,503

55.4

57.3

58.8

21.1

25.2

17.7

20.8

3, 210
776
1,740
694

3,839
1,178
1,820
841

4,491
1,353
2,178
960

2,529
459
1,652
418

2,969
734
1,747
489

3,460
843
2,095
523

78.8
59.2
94.9
60.2

77.4
62.3
96.0
58.1

77.0
62.3
96.2
54.4

19.6
51.8
4.6

17.4
59.8
5.8
16.8

17.0
14.9
19.7
14.1

16.5
14.9
19.9
6.9

3,353
757
1,805
791

4,111
1,130
1,960
1,021

4,866
1,295
2,339
1,232

1,107
210
725
171

1,584
399
927
267

2,043
499
1,197
347

33.0
27.8
40.2
21.7

38.5
34.5
47.3
26. 2

42.0
38.5
51.2
28.2

49.3
8.6
29.1

43.1
85.1
27.9
55.9

18.4
14.6
19.4
20.7

29.0
28.0
29.1
29.8

443
150
91

544
191
256
96

269
51
172
46

338
98
191
49

428
132
246
50

72.4
53.7
89.7
54.1

76.2
65.1
94.6
53.7

78.6
69.3
95.8
51.5

19.4
59.0
5.3
7.3

25.7
92.8
11.1
6.4

27.7
27.0
5.3

494
152
234
108

606
193
289
123

178
27
125
25

236
57
146
33

291
78
177
36

43.6
28.2
57.2
27.5

47.8
37.2
62.5
30.7

48.1
40.2
61.2
29.5

32.5
106.0
16.5
32.3

22.7
27.2
23.8
Hi 1

21.1

22.6

w h it e

Male
Total, 14 and over_____________
14-24 years________________
25-54 years________________
55 years and over__________
Female
Total, 14 and over....... ...............
14-24 years________________
25-54 years_____ __________
55 years and over__________

371
94
192
85
408
97
219
91

202

21.0

56.3
6.5
18.4

22.8

26.7
35.8
28.5
1.1

23.4
37.4
21.2
9.6

See footnotes at end of table.




91

T

a b l e

2.

P

o p u l a t io n

R

a n d L a b o r
e g io n s a n d

F
S

o r c e
t a tes

(E x c l
, 1960

u d in g
a n d

P

A

rm ed F o r c es
r o je c t e d 1 9 7 0

O

v e r s e a s ),
a n d 1980—

by

A

g e

, C

Continued

,1

o lo r

a n d

S

e x

,

fo r

[Numbers in thousands]
Population (July 1)

Labor force (annual average)

Age, color, and sex
1960
(April 1)

1970

1980

1960
(April 1)

1970

1980

Labor force partici­
pation rates (percent)
1960

Percent change
1960-70

1970-80

1970

1980 Popu­ Labor Popu­ Labor
lation force lation force

Mountain
A ll C l a sse s

Both sexes, 14 and over..................
Male
Total, 14 and over.:................ ........
14-24 years_____ __________
25-54 years...... ..................... .
55 years and over.....................
Female
Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years................................
25-54 years...... ........................
55 years and over.....................
N

4,593

6,036

7,458

2,561

3,574

4,537

55.8

59.2

60.8

31.4

39.5

23.6

27.0

2,295
551
1,247
497

2,981
899
1,457
625

3,664
1,085
1,823
756

1,800
333
1,185
283

2,349
595
1,403
351

2,904
736
1,760
408

78.4
60.4
95.0
56.8

66.2

78.8
96.3
56.2

79.3
67.8
96.6
53.9

29.9
63.0
16.9
25.7

30.5
78.7
18.4
24.3

22.9
20.8
25.1
20.9

23.6
23.7
25.5
16.1

2,297
545
1,241
512

3,055
876
1,480
699

3,794
1,052
1,839
903

761
168
479
114

1,224
355
688
181

1,632
463
923
246

33.1
30.7
38.6
22.3

40.1
40.5
46.5
25.9

43.0
44.1
50.2
27.2

33.0
60.7
19.3
36.6

60.9
111.9
43.5
59.1

24.2
20.1
24.2
29.3

33.3
30.6
34.1
35.7

104
32
54
18

138
50
67

192
77
90
25

67
14
44
9

94
27
57

10

134
42
79
13

64.6
45.0
81.8
47.5

68.4
53.8
85.5
48.1

69.9
55.1
49.6

33.1
57.3
24.8
15.7

41.0
87.8
30.5
17.2

39.3
54.6
33.9
20.5

42.4
58.5
38.1
24.1

99
30
54
16

141
50
71

203
78
97
28

31
7
21
3

52
17
30
5

70
22
41
7

31.1
22.2
39.2
20.7

36.7
34.6
42.4
22.5

34.4
28.0
42.6
23.6

42.3
67.0
31.9
30.4

160.8
42.7
41.5

43.4
55.1
36.9
37.2

34.1
25.5
37.6
43.8

o n w h it e

Male
Total, 14 and over___ _________
14-24 years___________ ____
25-54 years_____ ____ ______
55 years and over..... ...............
Female
Total, 14 and over...........................
14-25 years............... ........ .......
25-54 years................................
55 years and over__________

21

20

88.2

68.0

Montana
A ll C l a sse s

Both sexes, 14 and over..................
Male
Total, 14 and over..........................
14-24 years_______________
25-54 years................................
55 years and over__________
Female
Total, 14 and over................ ..........
14-24 years_______ ______
25-54 years________________
55 years and over.....................

458

528

606

254

309

362

55.5

58.5

59.7

15.2

21.4

14.8

17.2

234
52
122
60

266
76
126
64

303
86
148
70

181
30
117
34

205
49
121
36

234
57
141
36

77.5
59.0
95.6
56.6

77.2
64.2
95.9
55.9

77.4
60.4
95.6
52.2

13.9
47.0
3.0
7.5

13.4
60.1
3.3
6.1

14.0
12.7
17.5
8.4

14.2
16.6
17.2

262
73
67

303
82
143
78

73
16
44
13

103
30
56
18

127
34
71

32.6
32.3
37.3
23.1

39.5
40.3
45.6
27.3

42.0
41.7
49.5
28.7

16.6
44.9
3.5
18.6

41.0
80.7
26.5
40.4

15.6
11.6
17.1
17.3

23.1
15.5
27.2
23.0

225
51
118
56

122

22

1.2

Idaho
A ll C l a sse s

Both sexes, 14 and over.................
Male
Total, 14 and over_____________
14-24 years................................
25-54 years...............................
55 years and over_____ _____
Female
Total, 14 and over:_____ ______
14-24 years________________
25-54 years................................
55 years and over.....................
See footnotes at end of table.

92




447

522

613

251

319

388

56.1

61.2

63.2

16.6

27.1

17.4

21.4

226
54
118
54

264
77
126
61

310
86
156

180
33
114
32

213
54
122
37

250
61
151
39

79.6
62.2
96.4
60.2

80.7
70.6
97.1
60.0

80.6
70.2
96.9
56.7

16.9
43.3
6.2
14.2

18.6
62.7
7.0
13.9

17.5
11.9
24.3

10.6

17.3
11.3
23.9
4.4

258
73
120
64

303
82
143
77

71
16
44

106
30
59
18

137
35
78
24

32.2
29.8
38.0

41.1
40.2
48.8
27.8

45.4
43.0
54.7
30.8

16.3
38.0
3.6

48.6
86.5
32.9
56.4

17.4
12.4
19.0
20.3

29.7
20.2
33.4
32.9

222

53
116
52

68

11

21.8

22.6

T a b l e 2. P o pu l a t io n a n d L a b o r F orce (E x c l u d in g A rm ed F orces O v e r se a s ), b y A g e , C olor ,1 a n d S e x , fo r
R e g io n s a n d S t a t e s , 1960 a n d P r o jected 1970 a n d 1980—Continued
[Numbers in thousands]
Population (July 1)

Labor force (annual average)

Age, color, and sex
1960
(April 1)

1970

1980

1960
(April 1)

1970

1980

Labor force partici­
pation rates (percent)
1960

Percenttchange
1960-70

1970-80

1970

1980 Popu­ Labor Popu­ Labor
lation force lation force

58.0

60.7

61.6

16.9

22.4

17.4

19.1

25
77

80.7
61.5
96.2
61.3

79.4
63.3
96.8
60.3

78.5
61.4
96.3
57.8

16.3
47.7
4.7
15.0

14.3
52.1
5.3
13.1

16.7
12.5
19.5
15.5

15.4
9.2
18.9
10.7

67
17
39

34.0
31.3
38.8
25.1

41.3
40.5
48.3
28.3

44.3
42.4
53.6
28.0

17.5
42.9
3.0
27.2

42.6
85.1
28.2
43.3

18.1
13.4
18.6
22.4

26.6
18.9
31.9

20.2

24.5

Wyoming
A ll C l a sse s

Both sexes, 14 and over..................

224

262

307

130

159

115
25
64
26

134
37
67
30

156
41
80
35

93
15
61
16

106
23
63
18

109
25
60
24

128
36
62
31

151
40
73
38

37
8
23

53
14
30

189

M ale

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years.................................
25-54 years................................
55 years and over......................

122
20

F em ale

Total, 14 and over..........................
14-24 years.................................
25-54 years.................................
55 years and over.....................

6

8

11

21.2

Colorado
A ll C la sse s

Both sexes, 14 and over..................

1,211

1,559

1,874

681

933

1,162

56.2

59.9

62.0

28.7

37.1

595
137
321
137

755
230
367
159

904
268
448
188

468
85
306
76

603
156
356
91

736
191
437
108

78.7
62.4
95.4
55.7

79.9
68.0
97.1
57.2

81.4
71.2
97.5
57.5

27.1
67.9
14.2
16.5

29.0
82.9
16.3
19.7

617
134
329
154

803
222
388
194

970
257
473
240

213
45
134
34

330
95
186
50

427
120
242
64

34.5
33.6
40.8

41.1
42.7
47.9
25.6

44.0
46.8
51.2
26.6

30.2
65.8
17.9
25.5

110.6

54.9
38.6
45.8

15.7
24.0

29.3
27.1
30.4
29.1

M ale

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years................................
25-54 years.................................
55 years and over.....................

19.6
16.8
17.9

22.1

21.9
22.4
18.5

22.6

F em ale

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years................................
25-54 years.................................
55 years and over......................

22.0

20.8

22.1

New Mexico
A ll C la sse s

Both sexes, 14 and over..................

607

761

997

328

433

588

54.0

56.9

58.9

25.4

32.1

31.1

35.6

305
83
170
52

377
128
181

489
161
241

236
48
159
30

287
78
172
37

378
101
232
44

77.5
57.6
93.7
56.5

76.2
61.2
95.0
54.6

77.2
62.8
96.1
51.6

23.5
54.9
6.6
28.7

21.5
64.3
8.1
24.3

29.7
25.9
33.2
27.7

31.4
29.2
34.8

302
80
169
53

384
120
189
75

508
153
251
104

21

92
59

146
46
81
19

30.3
26.7
34.9

21.1

38.0
38.6
42.9
24.8

41.3
41.2
47.6
26.4

27.3
50.3
11.8
41.9

59.5
117.5
37.2

66.8

32.4
27.9
32.9
38.3

43.9
36.6
47.3
47.1

M ale

Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years.................................
25-54 years.................................
55 years and over.....................
F em ale

Total, 14 and over..........................
14-24 years.................................
25-54 years............. .................
55 years and over.....................

68

86

11

210

63
119
28

20.6

Arizona
A ll C la sse s

Both sexes, 14 and over..................

871

1,315

1,734

471

740

1,009

54.1

56.3

58.2

50.9

57.2

31.9

36.3

435
107
239
89

645
190
320
136

846
249
417
180

331
63
224
44

494
122
306

654
168
403
84

76.0
59.0
93.5
49.3

76.5
64.3
95.6
48.4

77.3
67.3
96.5
46.6

48.4
78.0
33.8
51.8

49.3
93.8
36.8
49.0

31.1
31.2
30.5
32.4

32.6
37.3
31.8
27.5

436
103
241
91

669
187
329
153

140
28
93
19

247
68
146
33

354

32.2
27.5
38.5

36.9
36.1
44.3

39.9
41.7
47.1
23.7

53.5
81.2
36.2
67.7

75.8
137.6
56.9
75.7

32.6
30.1
30.0
41.3

43.7
50.5
38.2
53.6

M ale

Total, 14 and over..........................
14-24 years...............................
25-54 years.................................
55 years and over.....................

66

F em ale

Total, 14 and over..........................
14-24 years................................
25-54 years........................... 1__
55 years and over.....................

888

244
427
217

102
201

51

20.8

21.8

See footnotes at end of table.




93

T a b l e 2. P o pu l a t io n a n d L a b o r F o rce (E x c l u d in g A rm ed F orces O v e r s e a s ), b y A g e , C olor ,1 a n d S e ;x , fo r
R e g io n s a n d S t a t e s , 1960 a n d P ro jected 1970 a n d 1980—Continued
[Numbers in thousands]
Labor force (annual average)

Population (July 1)
Age, color, and sex
1960
(April 1)

1970

1980

1960
(April 1)

1980

1970

Labor force partici­
pation rates (percent)
1960

1970

Percent change
1960-70

1970-80

1980 Popu­ Labor Popu­ Labor
lation force lation force

Utah
A ll C l a sse s

Both sexes, 14 and over..................
Male
Total, 14 and over..........................
14-24 years.................................
25-54 years.................................
55 years and over.....................
Female
Total, 14 and over..........................
14-24 years................................
25-54 years................................
55 years and over.....................

572

756

946

319

461

596

55.7

61.0

63.0

32.2

44.8

25.1

29.2

281
74
152
56

373
117
185
70

467
140
242
85

224
44
145
36

302
80
179
43

378
95
232
50

79.8
59.4
9517
63.2

81.0
68.4
96.2
61.8

80.8
68.3
95.7
59.1

32.4
59.0
22.5
24.0

34.5
82.9
23.2
21.3

25.4
19.6
30.4
21.7

25.1
19.4
29.8
16.3

290
79
150
61

383
121
182
80

479
144
234

94
26
54
14

159
53
82
24

219
68
118
33

32.4
33.0
36.2
22.7

41.6
43.8
45.3
29.9

45.7
47.4
50.3
32.5

32.1
54.1
21.4
30.2

69.4
104.6
52.1
71.4

24.9
18.8
28.6
25.7

37.1
28.6
42.7
36.5

101

Nevada

A ll C la sses

Both sexes, 14 and over..................
Male
Total, 14 and over.........................14-24 years...............................
25-54 years...............................55 years and over......................
Female
Total, 14 and over.......................
14-24 years................ ...........
25-54 years................................
55 years and over......................

202

334

381

127

218

243

63.0

65.4

63.8

65.5

71.6

13.9

11.2

105
21
61
23

167
45
86
37

189
54
90
45

87
14
58
15

139
32
83
23

152
38
88
26

83.1
66.7
95.7
64.7

83.0
72.8
96.8
63.2

80.6
71.2
97.0
58.9

59.1
107.5
40.6
62.8

58.9
126.4
42.4
59.0

12.9
20.9
5.4
20.7

9.7
18.2
5.6
12.3

97
21
58
19

167
43
89
35

192
50
94
48

40
7
28
5

80
20
49

91
23
54
14

41.3
33.8
48.3
27.9

47.7
45.8
55.2
30.8

47.3
47.1
57.4
28.0

110.6

72.4
53.8
87.8

99.2
186.0
76.0
107.3

14.9
14.4
5.5
39.4

14.0
17.6
9.7
26.7

11

Pacific

A ll C l a sse s

Both sexes, 14 and over..................
Male
Total, 14 and over..........................
14-24 years________________
25-54 years............. .................
55 years and over.....................
Female
Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years________________
25-54 years................................
55 years and over......................
N

8,611

11,565

14,495

57.3

59.3

59.9

29.8

34.3

24.1

25.3

3,287
5,818
2,583

5,907
1,019
3,941
947

7,616
1,895
4,525
1,196

9,401
2,319
5,630
1,452

79.1
62.5
95.1
56.0

80.1
69.7
96.7
56.6

80.4
70.6
96.8
56.2

27.4
66.5
13.0
24.9

28.9
85.8
14.8
26.4

22.9
20.9
24.3
22.3

23.4
22.4
24.4
21.4

9,980
2,582
4,888
2,510

12,493
3,137
6,123
3,234

2,703
488
1,777
438

3,949
1,043
2,284
622

5,094
1,415
2,873
805

35.8
32.0
43.2
23.0

39.6
40.4
46.7
24.8

40.8
45.1
46.9
24.9

32.2
68.9
18.8
31.7

46.1
113.5
28.5
42.1

25.2
21.5
25.3
28.8

29.0
35.7
25.8
29.4

641
148
381

112

830
262
415
153

1,086
368
525
193

495
81
346

68

652
166
393
93

852
238
502

112

77.1
54.4
91.0
60.3

78.5
63.4
94.7
60.5

78.5
64.7
95.7
58.1

29.5
76.5
9.0
36.6

31.7
105.8
13.5
36.9

30.7
40.5
26.5
25.6

30.8
43.5
27.8
20.7

598
143
362
92

850
258
457
135

1,173
370
597
206

258
44
187
27

401
103
251
46

543
168
302
74

43.1
30.4
51.8
28.8

47.1
40.1
55.0
33.9

46.3
45.3
50.5
35.7

42.2
80.0
26.3
46.0

55.4
136.8
34.1
72.1

38.0
43.2
30.7
52.8

35.6
62.1
20.0
61.0

15,017

19,490

7,466
1,633
4,142
1,692

9,510
2,718
4,680
2,113

7,551
1,529
4,116
1,901

24,182
11,688

o n w h it e

Male
Total, 14 and over..........................
14-24 years.................................
25-54 years________ _______
55 years and over......................
Female
Total, 14 and over..........................
14-24 years..............................
25-54 years............................. .
55 years and over......................
See footnotes at end of table.

94




Table 2. Population and Labor Force ,(ExcludingPArmed Forces Overseas), by Age, Color,1 and Sex, fo r
Regions and States 1960 and rojected 1970 and 1980—Continued
[Numbers in thousands]

Population (July 1)

Labor force (annual average)

Age, color, and sex
1960
(April 1)
All Classes
Both sexes, 14 and over................
Male
Total, 14 and over..........................
14-24 years.................................
25-54 years................................
55 years and over.....................
F emale
Total, 14 and over..........................
14-24 years.................................
25-54 years................................
55 years and over....................

1970

1980

1960
(April 1)

1970

Labor force partici­
pation rates (percent)

1980

1960

Percent change
1960-70

1970-80

1970

1980 Popu­ Labor Popu­ Labor
lation force lation force

Washington
2,006

2,329

2,713

1,125

1,368

1,628

56.1

58.7

60.0

16.1

21.6

16.5

19.0

1,003
219
533
252

1,145
337
529
280

1,322
372
637
312

780
135
508
137

893
230
511
152

1,041
261
617
162

77.8
61.7
95.4
54.5

78.0
68.4
96.6
54.2

78.8
70.3
96.9
51.8

14.2
54.0
- .7
11.0

14.4
70.8
.6
10.2

15.4
10.6
20.5
11.5

16.6
13.6
20.8
6.8

1,002
210
528
264

1,184
315
548
320

1,391
349
659
384

344
67
216
61

475
130
259
86

587
158
322
107

34.4
32.2
40.9
23.1

40.1
41.2
47.3
26.8

42.2
45.4
48.8
27.9

18.1
50.3
3.7
21.3

37.8
92.4
19.9
41.1

17.6
10.7
20.2
19.7

23.6
21.9
24.2
24.5

Oregon
A ll Classes
Both sexes, 14 and over..................
Male
Total, 14 and over..........................
14-24 years................................
25-54 years................................
55 years and over.....................
F emale
Total, 14 and over____ ________
14-24 years...............-...............
25-54 years................................
55 years and over.....................
A ll Classes
Both sexes, 14 and over.................
Male
Total, 14 and over...____ ______
14-24 years.............. ................
25-54 years...................... .........
55 years and over.....................
Female
Total, 14 and over..........................
14-24 years............. ................
25-54 years_______ ________
55 years and over.............. ......
N onwhite
Male
Total, 14 and over...........................
14-24 years............. ................
25-54 years_________ _______
55 years and over.....................
Female
Total, 14 and over..........................
14-24 years.................................
25-54 years............................
55 years and over.....................

1,251

1,473

1,672

685

827

948

54.7

56.1

56.7

17.7

20.7

13.5

14.7

617
125
325
166

722
191
343
188

822
204
412
205

469
67
309
92

539
111
328
100

615
121
393
101

76.0
53.9
95.0
55.6

74.6
58.2
95.6
53.1

74.9
59.5
95.3
49.1

17.1
52.9
5.4
13.1

14.9
64.9
6.1
8.0

13.8
6.6
20.4
9.2

14.2
9.1
20.0
1.0

635
130
329
175

751
196
341
214

850
206
396
249

216
40
134
41

288
77
156
56

333
89
183
61

34.1
31.1
40.7
23.8

38.3
39.2
45.7
26.0

39.1
43.3
46.2
24.4

18.3
50.5
3.6
22.2

33.1
89.5
16.1
33.1

13.2
5.1
16.0
16.0

15.5
16.2
17.5
9.0

California
11,185

14,980

18,962

6,436

8,926

11, 412

57.5

59.6

60.2

33.9

38.7

26.6

27.8

5,526
1,194
3,105
1,227

7,261
2,043
3,635
1,582

9,114
2,545
4,576
1,993

4,395
751
2,953
690

5,881
1,450
3,522
909

7,413
1,824
4,438
1,151

79.5
63.0
95.1
56.2

81.0
71.0
96.9
57.4

81.4
71.7
97.0
57.8

31.4
71.2
17.1
28.9

33.8
93.0
19.3
31.8

25.5
24.6
25.9
26.0

26.0
25.8
26.0
26.7

5,659
l, 123
3,105
1,432

7,719
1,973
3,821
1,926

9,848
2,464
4,857
2,527

2,041
360
1,355
326

3,045
799
1,780
466

3,999
1,120
2,265
614

36.1
32.1
43.6
22.8

39.4
40.5
46.6
24.2

40.6
45.5
46.6
24.3

36.4
75.7
23.1
34.5

49.2
121.9
31.4
42.9

27.6
24.9
27.1
31.2

31.3
40.1
27.3
31.7

428
95
260
72

583
180
300
103

795
270
392
134

335
54
236
45

468
118
286
64

642
181
380
82

78.2
56.6
90.5
62.4

80.4
65.3
95.5
62.8

80.8
67.2
96.9
60.8

36.1
89.0
15.0
42.2

39.9
118.0
21.4
43.2

36.5
49.3
30.7
30.8

37.2
53.9
32.7
26.7

408
93
252
63

616
184
335
98

882
276
454
151

180
29
131
20

293
76
182
35

410
131
225
55

44.1
31.2
52.1
31.3

47.6
41.4
54.4
35.9

46.5
47.4
49.5
36.2

50.9
96.4
32.9
55.4

62.7
160.8
38.7
78.5

43.0
50.5
35.5
54.9

39.9
72.3
23.3
56.1

See footnotes at end of table.




95

Table 2. Population egionsabor Force ,(ExcludingPArmed Forces Overseas), ContinuedColor,1 and Sex, for
Rand .l and States 1960 and rojected 1970 and 1980—by Age,
[N um bers in thousands]
P ercen t change
P o p u la tio n ( J u l y 1)

L a b o r fo r c e ( a n n u a l a v e r a g e )

L a b o r fo r c e p a r t i c i ­
p a tio n r a te s (p e rce n t)

A g e , c o lo r , a n d s e x

19 6 0 - 7 0
19 6 0
(A p r il 1)

19 7 0

19 8 0

19 6 0
( A p r il 1)

19 7 0

19 8 0

19 6 0

19 7 0

19 8 0

Popu­
la tio n

19 7 0 - 8 0

Labor
fo r c e

Popu­
la tio n

Labor
fo r c e

A la s k a

A ll Classes
B o t h s e x e s , 1 4 a n d o v e r ........................

14 9

17 9

223

99

114

13 5

6 6 .9

6 3 .6

6 0 .3

2 0 .2

14 .3

2 4 .8

18 .5

89
28
52
9

10 0
41
46
13

117
50
52
15

76
22
48
5

82
30
43
8

93
35
49
9

8 5 .3
7 8 .2
9 3 .0
6 3 .0

8 1.6
7 3 .0
9 4 .1
6 4 .6

7 9 .5
7 0 .2
9 4 .8
5 8 .0

1 2 .7
4 5 .4
- 11.1
4 5 .6

7 .8
3 5 .8
- 9 .9
4 9 .4

17 .3
2 1 .1
1 2 .7
2 1.3

14 .2
1 6 .5
13 .5
8 .8

60
15
39
6

79
25
45
9

10 6
34
58
14

24
5
17
2

32
10
19
3

42
13
24
4

3 9 .6
3 4 .1
4 2 .7
3 4 .1

4 0 .7
3 9 .1
4 3 .3
3 2 .2

3 9 .2
3 9 .9
4 1.8
2 6 .7

3 1.4
6 0 .7
16 .1
5 5 .8

3 4 .9
8 4 .4
17 .8
4 7 .2

3 4 .4
3 6 .4
2 9 .3
5 4 .1

2 9 .4
3 9 .0
2 5 .0
2 7 .7

Male
T o t a l , 1 4 a n d o v e r .....................................
1 4 - 2 4 y e a r s .............................................
2 5 - 5 4 y e a r s ............................................
5 5 y e a r s a n d o v e r ..............................

Female
T o t a l , 1 4 a n d o v e r .....................................
1 4 - 2 4 y e a r s ........... .................................
2 5 - 5 4 y e a r s .............................................
5 5 y e a r s a n d o v e r ..............................

H a w a ii

A ll Classes
B o t h s e x e s , 1 4 a n d o v e r . ......................

426

5 29

6 12

266

331

372

6 2 .3

6 2 .5

6 0 .8

2 4 .0

2 4 .4

15 .7

12 .6

232
67
12 8
37

282
10 5
12 7
50

3 14
115
14 1
57

18 8
44
12 3
21

222
73
12 1
28

239
77
13 2
29

8 1.2
6 5 .4
9 6 .1
5 8 .1

7 8 .6
6 9 .0
9 5 .3
5 6 .2

7 6 .1
6 6 .6
9 3 .8
5 1.3

2 1 .7
5 7 .7
- .7
3 4 .0

17 .8
6 6 .5
- 1.5
2 9 .6

11.3
9 .5
1 1 .2
15 .4

7 .7
5 .7
9 .5
5 .2

19 5
51
114
30

247
74
13 2
41

298
84
15 4
61

78
15
56
7

10 9
27
70
12

13 4
34
79
20

3 9 .9
2 9 .6
4 8 .6
2 3 .7

4 4 .1
3 7 .1
5 2 .9
2 8 .3

4 4 .8
4 0 .7
5 1.7
3 2 .8

2 6 .8
4 5 .1
15 .9
3 7 .7

4 0 .3
8 1.8
2 6 .0
6 4 .6

2 0 .7
14 .1
15 .9
4 8 .4
•

2 2 .6
2 5 .4
13 .3
7 2 .0

15 0
36
85
29

17 1
53
81
37

19 2
58
91
42

115
18
81
17

12 9
31
76
21

13 9
33
84
22

7 7 .1
4 9 .1
9 5 .5
5 8 .3

7 5 .2
5 9 .1
9 4 .3
5 6 .6

7 2 .7
5 6 .8
9 2 .4
5 2 .4

14 .5
4 7 .6
- 4 .3
2 8 .3

11.5
7 7 .7
- 5 .6
2 4 .6

12 .1
10 .3
12 .3
14 .0

8.
6 .0
10 .1
5 .6

13 5
35
78
21

15 9
49
83
27

18 6
55
91
39

59
11
43
5

78
19
51
8

92
23
54
14

4 3 .6
3 0 .5
5 5 .1
2 3 .2

4 9 .2
3 8 .8
6 1 .3
2 8 .8

4 9 .3
4 2 .0
5 9 .6
3 5 .6

17 .6
3 7 .8
6 .3
2 5 .1

3 2 .6
7 5 .5
19 .3
5 5 .1

1 7 .2
13 .2
1 0 .0
4 6 .6

17 .6
2 2 .7
6 .2
8 1.4

M ale
T o t a l , 1 4 a n d o v e r ....................................
1 4 - 2 4 y e a r s ............................................
2 5 - 5 4 y e a r s ............................................
5 5 y e a r s a n d o v e r .............................

Female
T o t a l , 1 4 a n d o v e r ....................................
1 4 - 2 4 y e a r s .............................................
2 5 - 5 4 y e a r s ............................................
5 5 y e a r s a n d o v e r .............................

N onwhite
M ale
T o t a l , 1 4 a n d o v e r ....................................
1 4 - 2 4 y e a r s ............................................
2 5 - 5 4 y e a r s ............................................
5 5 y e a r s a n d o v e r .............................

Female
T o t a l , 1 4 a n d o v e r ....................................
1 4 - 2 4 y e a r s ............. - ............................
2 5 - 5 4 y e a r s . .............- ..........................
5 5 y e a r s a n d o v e r . . ................. ..

1 D a t a b y c o lo r a r e s h o w n o n l y fo r t h o s e S t a t e s w h e r e t h e n o n w h i t e p o p u ­
la t i o n 1 4 y e a r s o f a g e a n d o v e r w a s 10 0 ,0 0 0 o r m o r e i n 19 6 0 .

N ote:

P o p u l a t i o n p r o je c t i o n s o f S t a t e s a r e c o n s is t e n t w i t h n a t i o n a l p o p u ­
l a t i o n p r o je c t io n s p u b li s h e d i n
S e r ie s P - 2 5 ,
N o . 28 6, “ P r o je c t i o n s o f t h e P o p u l a t i o n o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , b y A g e a n d
S e x : 19 6 4 to 19 8 5 .”
P r o je c t e d l a b o r fo r c e d a t a a r e c o n s is t e n t w i t h d a t a in
“ L a b o r F o r c e P r o je c t i o n s fo r 19 7 0 - 8 0 ,”
F e b ru a ry
19 6 5 , p p . 1 2 9 - 1 4 0 ( r e p r in t e d a s S p e c i a l L a b o r F o r c e R e p o r t N o . 49) a n d
“ L a b o r F o r c e P r o je c t i o n s b y C o lo r , 1 9 7 0 - 8 0 ,”
Sep­
t e m b e r 19 6 6 , p p . 9 6 5 -9 7 2 ( r e p r in t e d a s S p e c i a l L a b o r F o r c e R e p o r t N o . 7 3 ) ,

Current Population Reports,

M onthly Labor Review,
M onthly Labor Review,

96




b u t e x c lu d e A r m e d F o r c e s o v e r s e a s . S t a t e l a b o r fo r c e d a t a fr o m t h e d e ­
c e n n ia l c e n s u s r e la t e t o A p r i l 19 6 0 a n d a r e t h e r e f o r e n o t c o m p a r a b le w i t h
p r o je c t io n s o f t h e U . S . la b o r fo r c e w h ic h a r e b a s e d o n a n n u a l a v e r a g e le v e ls
f r o m t h e m o n t h l y la b o r fo r c e ( h o u s e h o ld ) s u r v e y .
B e c a u s e o f r o u n d i n g , s u m s o f i n d i v i d u a l i t e m s m a y n o t e q u a l t o t a ls . R a t e s
a n d p e rc e n t ch an ges are b ased o n u n ro u n d e d n u m b e rs.

Source:

P o p u l a t i o n a n d la b o r fo r c e d a t a fo r 19 6 0 a r e fr o m t h e d e c e n n ia l
c e n s u s . P r o je c t i o n s o f t h e p o p u la t i o n fo r 19 7 0 a n d 19 8 0 a r e fr o m “ I l l u s t r a t i v e
P r o je c t i o n s o f t h e P o p u l a t i o n o f S t a t e s : 19 7 0 t o 19 8 0 ,”
, S e r ie s P - 2 5 , N o . 3 2 6 .

Reports

Current Population

Table 3. Percent Increase in Projected Labor percentage points higher than that of the immediately
Force of States, 1960-70 and 1970-80, in Rank preceding age group.
19 7 0 - 8 0

19 6 0 -7 0
Rank
o rd er
S ta te

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51

P ercen t
in c r e a s e

S ta te

P ercen t
in c r e a s e

N e v a d a ..
. . x _______
A r i z o n a ........... .....................
U t a h .......................................
F l o r i d a ..................................
C a l i f o r n i a ............... ...........
C o lo r a d o .
_____
N e w M e x i c o ___ __ ____
M a r y l a n d ......................
I d a h o ........... ..........................
G e o r g i a .................................
-A rk an sas. . _
___
D e l a w a r e . ..........................
M i s s i s s i p p i ........................
L o u i s i a n a ........ ...................
V i r g i n i a ...................... .
T e n s ...................................
H a w a i i ................. ................
S o u t h C a r o l i n a ..........
T e n n e s s e e . . ......................
C o n n e c t i c u t ......................
A l a b a m a ..............................
W y o m i n g ...........................
N e w H a m p s h i r e ...........
N o r t h C a r o l i n a ..............
N e w J e r s e y .......................
W a s h in g t o n ___________
M o n t a n a .............................
O r e g o n ..................................
V e r m o n t ..............................
O h io ........... ............................
I n d i a n a . ..............................
O k l a h o m a .............. ............
W is c o n s i n ..........................
S o u t h D a k o t a _________
M i n n e s o t a ..........................
M i c h i g a n ............................
K e n t u c k y ...........................
N e b r a s k a ............................
N o r t h D a k o t a .................
N e w Y o r k ..........................
K a n s a s ...
M a s s a c h u s e t t s ________
A l a s k a ......................... .........
I l l i n o i s ........................... ..
W e s t V i r g i n i a ..................
I o w a .................... ..................
M a i n e ...................................
P e n n s y l v a n i a ..................
R h o d e I s l a n d ...................
M i s s o u r i ..............................
D is t r ic t o f C o lu m b ia .

7 1.6
5 7 .2
4 4 .8
4 1.6
3 8 .7
3 7 .1
3 2 .1
2 8 .5
2 7 .1
2 6 .9
2 6 .1
2 6 .0
2 5 .0
2 5 .9
2 5 .8
2 5 .2
2 4 .4
2 3 .7
2 3 .1
2 2 .7
2 2 .7
2 2 .4
2 2 .3
2 2 .2
2 2 .0
2 1 .6
2 1 .4
2 0 .7
2 0 .5
19 .8
19 .6
19 .0
18 .9
18 .8
18 .4
18 .1
17 .8
17 .2
1 6 .6
1 6 .1
15 .6
14 .3
1 4 .3
14 .2
14 .1
12 .7
11 .5
1 1 .2
10 .2
9 .8
9 .4

A r i z o n a ____________ ___
N e w M e x i c o . . ...............
F l o r i d a ..................................
U t a h ........................... ...........
C a l i f o r n i a _____ ________
C o l o r a d o _______________
L o u i s i a n a ______________
D e l a w a r e .............................
I d a h o . .................... ..............
T e x a s .....................................
M a r y l a n d ...........................
M i n n e s o t a ........... ..............
I n d i a n a . . ............................
W y o m i n g _____________
A l a b a m a _______________
W a s h in g t o n ___________
W is c o n s i n ...........................
N e w H a m p s h i r e _____
A l a s k a ...................................
O h io ........................................
V i r g i n i a ________________
M i s s i s s i p p i ..............._ .......
M i c h i g a n ________ ______
D is t r ic t o f C o lu m b ia .
M o n t a n a ...................... .......
V e r m o n t _______________
N e w J e r s e y . .....................
C o n n e c t i c u t ......................
I l l i n o i s .................... ..............
A r k a n s a s ...................... .......
K e n t u c k y ..
________
G e o r g ia ..
__________
T e n n e s s e e _______ _____
O r e g o n _________________
S o u t h C a r o l i n a ...............
O k l a h o m a _____________
N o r t h C a r o l i n a ..............
K a n s a s ... .
.................
I o w a ............. ......... ................
N o r t h D a k o t a . ............
M a ssa c h u se tts
M a i n e __________________
M is s o u r i
S o u t h D a k o t a .............
N e b r a s k a . .....................
H a w a ii .
N e v a d a ..
P e n n s y lv a n ia
N ew Y o r k ..
W e st V irg in ia .
R h o d e I s l a n d _________

3 6 .3
3 5 .6
3 3 .5
2 9 .2
2 7 .8
2 4 .5
2 4 .4
2 2 .7
2 1 .4
2 0 .8
2 0 .4
19 .2
19 .1
19 .1
19 .1
19 .0
18 .8
18 .5
18 .5
18 .2
18 .1
18 .0
18 .0
17 .4
17 .2
17 .0
1 6 .8
1 6 .8
16 .3
16 .3
1 6 .0
15 .8
15 .0
14 .7
14 .6
14 .1
14 .0
14 .0
13 .8
13 .7
13 .5
13 .4
13
13 .1
1 2. e
12 .6
1 1 .2
10 .9
10 .4
8 .9
7 .4

U n it e d S t a te s , t o t a l..

2 2 .0

U n it e d S t a te s , t o t a l..

18 .1

.4

years immediately after World War II. Many of these
individuals have entered the labor force as young
workers or will enter it prior to 1970.
In the four regions, the rise in the number of workers
in each of the broad age groups will be similar to
national trends. For example, the projected 1960-70
increase in the number of workers 14 to 24 years old
varies from 56 percent in the Northeast to 94 percent in
the West. The rise in the number of workers in the other
two age groups, 25 to 54 and 55 and over, will remain
considerably below the increase in the number of
younger workers. This fact is especially true of the
central age group, 25 to 54, which will experience a gain
of 21 percent in the West and only 6 percent in the
Northeast and North Central regions. Older workers, 55
and over, will show a gain approximately 10 to 12




The 1970fs

Between 1970 and 1980, the total resident labor
force is expected to rise from 85.3 million to 100.7
million workers, an increase of 18 percent. On a
geographical basis, the same broad pattern of growth is
still evident. The West once again will show the greatest
rise, 26 percent, however, this increase is 10 percentage
points less than during the preceding 10 years. The
South also will experience a smaller gain than pre­
viously— percent, compared with 25 percent for the
19
1960-70 period. The Northeast region also is expected to
rise somewhat less than in 1960-70; only the North
Central region will increase by about the same percent­
age as in the previous decade, about 17 percent.
Smaller increases in the 1970-80 decade also are
evident when we look at the individual States. For
example, for the 1970-80 period only three States may
gain more than 30 percent: Arizona, New Mexico, and
Florida, about 35 percent. Only eight will gain from 20
to 29 percent. The remaining States are expected to
show gains ranging from 7 percent to 19 percent.
The labor force growth patterns for the broad age
groups expected during the 1970-80 period are expected
to differ substantially from those described for the
1960-70 period. The most striking difference will occur
among younger workers. For the Nation, the number of
workers 14 to 24 will rise only about one-third as fast
between 1970 and 1980 as it did in the 1960-70 period.
Conversely, the group of workers age 25 to 54, which
shows small gains for the 1960-70 period, is expected to
increase by 19 percent during the 1970-80 period. In
other words, the large number of births in the late
1940’s and early 1950’s produces the expectation of a
large number of workers in the 14 to 24 age group
during the 1960-70 decade, but by the 1970’s these
same workers will be advancing into the 25 to 54 group.
The effect will be felt also in the regions. For
example, in the West, the number of workers age 14 to
24 is expected to rise by 27 percent, workers 25 to 54
by 26 percent, and workers 55 years old and over by 24
percent. Similar changes will occur in the other regions,
where the projected increases in the three broad age
groups are not expected to vary more than 7 percentage
points.
The nonwhite labor force will increase by 31 and 26
percent in the two successive decades, compared with 22
and 18 percent for the labor force as a whole. In the
97

Chart 1. Percent Increase in Projected Labor Force of States, 1960-70 and 1970-80
1960- 1970

1970- 1980

PERCENT CHANGE
10-14.9 E S
15-19.9 EU
20-29.9
30-49.9 E 3
50 AND OVER H

98




South and West, the nonwhite labor force will increase
only slightly faster than the total for the region. In the
Northeast and North Central regions, the nonwhite labor
force will grow at about twice the rate for the whole
labor force. These data have significant implications for
education and employment policies in all of these
regions.
R eliability

Second, in projecting the labor force participation
rates (percent of population in the labor force for
specific age groups of men and women), the procedure
that was applied to past labor force participation rates
was the same for each State. The chief merits of this
approach are its simplicity and objectivity. The chief
limitation is its failure to take explicit account of past
economic or social circumstances of a State which are
not expected to continue, or possible special future
circumstances which could affect the labor force partici­
pation rates for some States. For this reason, these
projections should be regarded only as a very approxi­
mate indication of future developments. They should
not be regarded as a substitute for more detailed
projections which might be prepared for any particular
State on the basis of a careful analysis of its peculiar
circumstances and developmental policies.7
In view of these limitations, we would appreciate
comments or suggestions from users of these data in
regard to their usefulness and improvements. We also
would welcome any examples of projections that may
have been developed by users for local areas, together
with information as to techniques employed in their
development.
The procedure used in projecting the labor force has
four essential steps. First, for each age-sex-color group,
the labor force participation rate for 1940, 1950, and
1960 for each State was expressed as a ratio of the
corresponding national labor force participation rate.
Next, these ratios were extrapolated to 1970 and 1980
by extending the trend shown by the three past
observations. Then the extrapolated ratios were applied
to independently projected national labor force partici­
pation rates for 1970 and 1980. Finally, the projected
labor force participation rates were applied to the
projected population for each age-sex-color cell for the
States. The effect of this procedure is to take specific
account of differences among States in the rates for each
age-sex-color group, and the trend in these differences
over the 1940-60 period, in projecting the relationship
of the rates for each State to the national average.

Before describing the methods used in making these
projections some discussion of the limitations affecting
the reliability of these projections is necessary. First, the
most important element in the size of the projected
labor force of each State is the projection of the
population of working age. In projecting the population
for the next 10 or 15 years, the most critical variable is
the magnitude and composition of net interstate migra­
tion. Our selection of the Series II migration assumption
cannot be supported by specific evidence; it reflects our
judgment that interstate migration is essentially pur­
posive movement which occurs to a considerable degree
in response to differential economic opportunities.
Limited evidence exists that these differentials tend to
decline over time, partly as a result of the population
movements they originally inspire.6 We therefore
selected the series which assumes a very gradual decline
in the net interstate migration in preference to the series
which assumed a constant rate equal to that observed
during 1955-60. Alternative assumptions in regard to the
volume and direction of interstate migration in the
future would result in a considerably different set of
population projections, and, therefore, would yield
different labor force projections as well. For example,
the number of workers in the State of California, where
net immigration is substantial, would be 135,000 (1.0
percent) greater than our projection of 13.4 million if
the “high migration” assumption had been employed.
Conversely, assuming no net migration would yield a
labor force 302,000 (2.2 percent) less. In comparison,
the high migration assumption for the State of Maine
would produce a 1970 labor force only 5,000 (0.7 M ethod
percent) less than our projection of 669,000, and the
assumption of no net migration would yield a labor
As was stated earlier, the State labor force projections
force 11,000 (1.6 percent) greater. For most of the were prepared by a procedure consisting of four basic
States, the effect of the alternative migration assump­
7
the
a recent mail survey by the
tions would fall within the range indicated in the above CensusAccordingattoleast results ofagencies carry out population
Bureau,
30 State
examples.
projections for their own Use. In addition, in nearly every State,

one or more universities or private organizations engage in
population projections as a part of their research or planning
6
Lowell D. Ashby, “The Geographical Redistribution ofactivities. See the Bureau of the Census, “Inventory of State and
Employment: An Examination of the Elements of Change,” Local Agencies Preparing Population Estimates-Survey of
Survey o f Current Business, October 1944, pp. 13-20.
1965,” Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 328.




99

steps. First approximations and successive adjustments
were obtained by using a special program written in
FORTRAN language for the IBM 7074 computer. The
basic inputs were: (1) State labor force participation
rates, by age, sex, and color, for 1940,1950, and I960;8
(2) national labor force participation rates, by age, sex,
and color, for 1940, 1950, and 1960, and projections to
1970 and 1980; and (3) projected State resident popula­
tion, by age, sex, and color, for 1970 and 1980.
Steps 1 and 2 of the procedure involved computing
ratios of State labor force participation rates for each
age-sex-color group to corresponding national labor
force participation rates, and extrapolating trends for
these ratios to 1970 and 1980. Using the basic data
described above we have:
(1) T4o—o = (SRso/NRso) - (SR40/NR4o)
(2) T5o— = (SR6o/NR60) - (SR /NR )
6o
where
Tptrend.
SRi=State labor force participation rate for a given
age-sex-color group.
NR-=National labor force participation rate for a given
age-sex-color group.
i=Time, expressed as a 10-year time interval, e.g.,
1940-50,1950-60.
Using the trends computed in (1) and (2), and
assigning weights of two-thirds to the most recent
decade and one-third to the other period, the following
relationships were established:
(3)
T6o—o = 1/3 [(T - ) + 2(T50- 6o)]
7
(4)
T
= 1/3[(T5o-6 o) + 2(T60_7o)]
5

50

50

Projected State labor force participation rates, by age,
sex, and color for 1970 and 1980 were then obtained by
solving for SR70 and SR8o in equations (3) and (4)
respectively:
(5) SR = [NR ] [(T6 - ) + (SR /NR )]
(6) SRgo = [NR8o1[(T7o-8 o) + (SR7o/NR7o)]
The projected State labor force rates obtained in step
2 were first approximations. Rates that were above or
below the acceptable limits were arbitrarily adjusted to
the nearest limit.9 We decided that the highest and the
lowest rates observed among the States in the three
censuses would provide broad limits for adjusting ex­
treme projected State labor force participation rates.
In step 3, the number in the labor force in 1970 and
1980, in each age-sex-color group in each State, was
obtained by multiplying the independently projected
resident population by the projected rates of labor force
participation of the corresponding age-sex-color group.
Finally, the projected State labor force levels for each
age-sex-color group were summed. These totals then
were divided into corresponding age-sex-color totals of
the independently projected national totals. The re­
sulting ratios were used as factors to adjust each State
age-sex-color cell of every State to a national control
total. The magnitude of this adjustment amounted to
less than 0.5 percent in most cases.
These adjusted labor force figures were used to
compute a new set of labor force participation rates
which were accepted without further adjustment.
7 0

7 0

0

7 0

6 0

60

9
These limits were developed by obtaining the average of
the 4 highest and the 4 lowest State rates, by age, sex, and color,
for 1940, 1950, and 1960, and calculating the ratios of the
average of the “high four” and “low four” to the corresponding
national rates in 1940, 1950, and 1960. Where a trend in the
8
Both the State and national rates relate to the totalratio was noted, it was extrapolated in projecting the ratio to
resident labor force divided by the total resident population, 1970 and 1980. Where no trend was apparent, the ratios were
times 100. In all three censuses, age detail was not published for held constant at the average of 1940, 1950, and 1960:
the nonwhite labor force in States with fewer than 25,000 Multiplying the projected national labor force participation rates
nonwhites. In these cases, the rates for a neighboring State were by the corresponding ratios provided upper and lower limits
which were employed as criteria.
substituted.
40

70-80

100




50

About Those Jobs for Tomorrow - -

READ THE NEW

OCCUPATIONAL OUTLOOK HANDBOOK

By the US. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics. The 1968 edition
of career information presents current assessments of job prospects through the
1 9 7 0 's. Its expanded coverage of over 700 occupations, 30 major industries, in­
cludes details on:

• Nature of the work • Education and training requirements
• Where to find employment opportunities • Job outlook through the 1970’$
• Earnings, working conditions • Where to get more information

A R E M I N D E R ----The OCCUPATIONAL OUTLOOK HANDBOOK, and all other Occupational Outlook
Service publications, are eligible for purchase by schools under Title II of the
Elementary and Secondary Education Act.
In ^adfdition, many State departments of education authorize purchase of these
publications under Title V (a) of the National Defense Education Act.
For information about either of these fund sources, contact your State education
agency.

Send order form to the Superintendent of Documents, Washington, D.C., 20402, or to any of the following regional offices of the Bu.^au of Labor Statistics*
U.S. Department of Labor:
450 Golden Gate Ave., Box 36017
1371 Peachtree St. NE. 1603-A Federal Bldg. 219 S. Dearborn St. 911 Walnut St.
341 Ninth Ave.
San Francisco, Calif. 94102
Atlanta, Ga. 30309
Government Center
Chicago, III. 60604 Kansas City, Mo. 64106 New York, N.Y. 10001
Boston, Mass. 02203

For Use of Supt. Docs

ENCLOSED FIND $
v (check, money order). Please send me___ copies
of the Occupational Outlook Handbook, 1 9 6 8 -6 9 edition, Bulletin 1 5 5 0 , @ $4 .2 5
a copy.

— Enc losed_
—
_
.. ..

Name____________________________________________________________________

To be mailed
_______ _

later

_ Subscription ....
_

Street address______________________________________________________________

Refund.__

C ity, State, and ZIP Code

Coupon rqfund
Postage ...
PLEASE FILL IN MAILING LABEL BELOW
PENALTY FOR PRIVATE USE TO AVOID

U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
DIVISION OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS
WASHINGTON. D.C. 20402

PAYMENT OF POSTAGE. $300

OFFIC IA L BUSINESS

Name___________________

RETURN AFTER 5 DAYS

Street address___________




City, State, and ZIP Code

☆ U.S. GOVERNM
ENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1969 0-335-827







U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS
WASHINGTON, O.C. 20212
O F F IC IA L




B U S IN E S S

POSTAGE AND FEES PAID

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

i THIRD CLASS MAIL i
i_________________________________________ ___________ i