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L%'3', Technology and Its Impact on Labor in Four Industries A&3 Lumber and wood products/Footwear Hydraulic cement/Wholesale trade U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics November 1986 °o% % Bulletin 2263 ■ */ a % CO co . % %n " % ■ /C ',% /* C fr % Technology and Its Impact on Labor in Four Industries Lumber and wood products/Footwear Hydraulic cement/Wholesale trade U.S. Department of Labor William E. Brock, Secretary Bureau of Labor Statistics Janet L. Norwood, Commissioner November 1986 Bulletin 2263 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government P rinting Office, Washington, D.C. 20402 / Preface This bulletin appraises some of the major technologi cal changes emerging among selected American indus tries and discusses the impact of these changes on pro ductivity and labor over the next 5 to 10 years. It con tains separate reports on the following four industries: Lumber and wood products (SIC 24), footwear (SIC 314), hydraulic cement (SIC 3241), and wholesale trade (SIC 50,51). This publication is one of a series which presents the results of the Bureau’s continuing research on produc tivity and technological developments in major indus tries. Previous bulletins in this series are included in the list of BLS publications on technological change at the end of this bulletin. The bulletin was prepared in the Bureau’s Office of Productivity and Technology, Jerome A. Mark, Asso ciate Commissioner, under the direction of Charles W. Ardolini, Chief, Division of Industry Productivity and Technology studies. Individual industry reports were written under the supervision of Rose N. Zeisel and Richard W. Riche, by A. Harvey Belitsky (footwear and wholesale trade), Robert V. Critchlow (lumber and wood products}, and Richard W. Lyon (hydraulic cement). The Bureau wishes to thank the following organiza tions for providing the photographs used in this study: Forest Industries, Brown Shoe Company, and Spectro In dustries, Inc. Material in this publication, other than photographs, is in the public domain and, with appropriate credit, may be reproduced without permission. Contents Page C h a p te r s: 1. L u m b e r a n d w o o d p r o d u c t s .............................................................................................................................................. 2 . F o o tw e a r ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 3 . H y d r a u lic c e m e n t 4 . W h o le s a le tr a d e 1 17 ..................................................................................................................................................................... 27 ........................................................................................................................................................................ 38 T a b le s : 1. M a jo r t e c h n o l o g y c h a n g e s in lu m b e r a n d w o o d p r o d u c ts .......................................................................... 2 .................................................................................................................. 19 3 . M a jo r t e c h n o l o g y c h a n g e s in h y d r a u lic c e m e n t ................................................................................................. 29 4 . M a jo r t e c h n o l o g y c h a n g e s in w h o le s a l e t r a d e .................................................................................................... 39 2 . M a jo r t e c h n o l o g y c h a n g e s in f o o t w e a r 5 . P r o j e c t e d c h a n g e s in e m p l o y m e n t in w h o l e s a l e tr a d e b y o c c u p a t io n a l g r o u p , 1 9 8 4 - 9 5 . . 46 C h a r ts: O u tp u t p e r e m p l o y e e h o u r a n d r e la t e d d ata: 1. S a w m il ls a n d p la n in g m i l l s , 1 9 7 0 - 8 4 2 . M il lw o r k , 1 9 7 0 -8 3 ....................................................................................................................... 9 .................................................................................................................................................................. 10 3 . W o o d k it c h e n c a b in e t s , 1 9 7 2 - 8 3 4 . V e n e e r a n d p ly w o o d m i l l s , ................................................................................................................................... 1 9 7 0 -8 4 ....................................................................................................................... 5 . E m p lo y m e n t in lu m b e r a n d w o o d p r o d u c t s , 1 9 7 0 - 8 5 , a n d p r o j e c t io n s , 1 9 8 5 - 9 5 6 . O u tp u t p e r e m p l o y e e h o u r a n d r e la t e d d a ta , fo o tw e a r , 1 9 7 0 -8 4 7 . E m p lo y m e n t in f o o t w e a r , 1 9 7 0 - 8 5 , a n d p r o j e c t io n s , 1 9 8 5 - 9 5 8 . O u tp u t p e r e m p l o y e e h o u r a n d r e la t e d d a ta , 9 . E m p lo y m e n t in h y d r a u lic c e m e n t , 1 9 7 0 - 8 5 , 1 0 . O u tp u t a n d h o u r s o f a ll p e r s o n s , w h o l e s a l e 12 13 ...................... 14 ........................................................ 22 .............................................................. 25 h y d r a u lic c e m e n t , 1 9 7 0 - 8 4 .................................... 33 a n d p r o j e c t io n s , 1 9 8 5 - 9 5 ......................................... 36 tr a d e , 1 9 7 0 - 8 5 43 ................................................................ 1 1 . E m p lo y m e n t in w h o l e s a l e tr a d e , 1 9 7 0 - 8 5 , a n d p r o j e c t io n s , 1 9 8 5 - 9 5 ............................................. 44 O th e r B L S p u b lic a t io n s o n t e c h n o l o g ic a l c h a n g e s ............................................................................................................ 47 Chapter 1. Lumber and Wood Products Summary grow by 0.3 percent a year until 1995. Employment is projected to increase in most major occupational groups, with the highest growth rates an ticipated for managers, engineers, carpenters, precision woodworkers, and skilled handwork occupations. De mand should be strong for mechanics who can repair logging vehicles, and for sawmill maintenance person nel—especially those who have experience with solid-state electronics. Specific reference to technological change is rare in collective bargaining contracts. Several cooperative agreements have been worked out between certain un ion local chapters and the management of individual mills and plants that involve production and produc tivity improvements. New equipment being introduced in the labor-inten sive lumber and wood products industry (SIC 24) is reducing labor requirements. The rate at which new equipment is being adopted varies among different sec tors of the industry. Logging operations are done pri marily by small contractors who have limited capital resources for new technology and go in and out of ac tive business as the demand for logs fluctuates. Within the various mill operations (sawmills, planing mills, ply wood mills), automated equipment such as computer-as sisted sawing and material handling equipment is being used in medium-sized to large establishments. Com puters and other solid-state electronic devices are be coming more widely used in all portions of the industry. Productivity and employment varied considerably in the segments of the lumber and wood products indus try for which BLS measures are available. Output of the sawmill and planing mill portion, grew only very slightly between 1970 and 1984, while it grew slowly for veneer and plywood mills and somewhat more ra pidly for wood kitchen cabinets. Output of millwork declined slightly from 1970 to 1983. Over the period, output per employee hour increased at an average an nual rate of 1.7 percent for sawmills and planing mills, declined at an annual rate of 1.0 percent for millwork, and increased by an annual rate of 2.5 percent for ve neer and plywood mills and 1.8 percent for wood kitchen cabinets. Investment increased from $535 million in 1970 (1972 con stant dollars) to more than $1 billion a year in 1977, 1978, and 1979, then declined, amounting to only $448 million in 1982. Investment in sawmills and planing mills accounted for about 40 to 45 percent of the total. A total of 700,300 workers were employed in the lumber and wood products industry in 1985, compared to 645,500 in 1970. The average annual rate of increase was 0.5 percent over this period. Employment in log ging operations increased at an annual rate of 1.1 per cent, while the number employed in sawmills and plan ing mills declined by an average of 0.6 percent a year. Employment in the millwork, plywood, and structural members sector (the largest sector, which accounts for nearly one-third of industry employment) rose at an an nual rate of 1.2 percent. BLS projects employment to Technology in the 1980’s Technological improvements have contributed to in creased productivity in a number of areas. In the log ging sector, most changes involve improvements in the vehicles used for cutting and moving timber. Computers and electronic controls are being used more extensively in sawmills, veneer and plywood mills, and millwork and cabinet plants. There also have been improvments in material handling systems, saws, fasteners, gluing op erations, and other areas. Table 1 describes major innovations in the lumber and wood products industry, their impact on labor, and prospects for further diffusion. Logging Logging is the first step in converting trees to com mercially useful wood products. A considerable amount of mechanization has been introduced into logging op erations over the past several decades. However, the process remains labor intensive. Some of the results of mechanization have been offset by the need for logging crews to travel farther to find uncut timber and—more important—to cut the smaller trees that are now more generally available. This means that logging crews must cut a larger number of trees to obtain the same quan tity of wood available from the larger trees harvested in earlier years. Logging operations, and the equipment used to ac1 Table 1. Major technology changes in lumber and wood products Technology Description Labor implications Diffusion Logging Timber management Com puters are being used to maintain data files and project economic scenarios. Electronic data recorders store information in the field for computer data files. Aerial and satellite photography provides data on large forest areas. Tree felling Feller bunchers harvest small to Skill required for operating a feller buncher are very different from medium-size trees in nonmounthose for chainsaw felling, as tainous areas. Chainsaws still feller bunchers are vehicles that widely used in situations where must be driven, and cutting is feller bunchers cannot operate. done by positioning the cutting head. Yarding operations Tractors and skidders pull freshly High capacity skidders and mobile Improved skidders are in growing yarding cranes can reduce yard cut logs to loading areas. Recent use. Mobile yarding cranes are in models have increased hauling ing crew size. Helicopters and bal limited use due to high cost. Yard loons can make logging work capacity. Spar and cable yarding ing by helicopter or balloon is only rarely used. possible in otherwise inaccessible equipment is used for difficult ter areas. rain. Highly productive mobile yarding cranes are now available. Helicopters anf balloons are oc casionally used. Mechanical support Maintenance trucks equipped with Productivity of logging crews is im In growing use. proved when equipment down tools and spare parts that ac time is reduced. Increased de company logging vehicles in the mand for maintenance personnel. field and make on-the-spot re pairs. Timber management tools pro Limited but growing use. vide foresters with greater control over timber production. Feller bunchers are widely used where tree size and topography permit. Sawmills Log handling Lifting vehicles and cranes are used to unload and move logs prior to sawing. Singulators unscramble stacks of logs and feed them into sawmills one at a time. Computerized sawing A system of scanners, computers, Reduces the amount of decision Commonly used in new and re and software packages designed making required of saw operators. novated mills. to cut wood in such a way as to Maintenance requirements have maximize yield. Actual cutting op increased and become more complex. Greater need for elec erations range from manual to automatic, but decisionmaking trical and electronic skills. about how to cut the wood is computerized. Improved saws Thin-kerf saws make very thin cuts Thin-kerf saws require more main Thin-kerf saw blades are in growing tenance than regular-kerf saws. in wood, reducing waste. Stellite use. Semiautomatic Stellite tip New semiautomatic methods of tipping of saw teeth increases the ping processes are new and pres applying Stellite to saw teeth re amount of time a saw blade can ently in only limited use. duce application times. be used before requiring resharp ening, and also increases cutting accuracy. Lumber sorting Automated systems, including scan Highly automated sorter systems Automatic sorters are expensive and ners and computers or program can eliminate most of the manual most frequently used only in high work involved in sorting and stack mable controllers, sort cut lumber labor cost areas and in large, ing lumber. by size and quality as it emerges high-output mills. from the sawmill. 2 Increased capacity for a number of All sawmills use some log handling equipment, but there is too much front-end loaders, cranes, and re variation from one mill to another lated equipment reduces labor re to allow generalization. quirements for log handling crews. Table 1. Major technology changes in lumber and wood products—Continued Technology Diffusion Labor implications Description V en eer and plyw o o d m ills Automatic controls for hot water vats Programmable controllers that auto Labor needed to monitor and regu Limited but growing use. late water temperature is reduced. matically control water tempera ture and drive pumps to circulate water in the vats. X-Y charger and digital lathe controls Computerized control system that Labor requirements for lathe oper Limited but growing use. ators are reduced. automatically scans and centers a block of wood in a lathe to en sure maximum yield. Digital hy draulic knife carriage provides fast, accurate cutting. Automated clippers High-speed cutting machines that trim sheets of wood to be made into plywood panels. High cutting speeds improve pro Automated clipper controls are in fairly widespread use. Recent ductivity. models operate at higher speeds. Jet veneer drying and mechanical layup cabinets Drying and glueing together of veneer sheets to form plywood panels. Mechanized operations reduce labor Widely used. requirements. W o o d kitchen cabinets Limited use. Computerized cabinet design Computer software systems that cal Reduces time and work required to design cabinets. culate materials and costs for cabinet systems. Improved fasteners Concealed hinges and other fasten Large reduction in labor require In growing use. ments for cabinet assembly. ers that can be installed at least partially by automated equip ment. M illw ork Automated control systems Numerical and microcomputer sys Some reduction in labor require Limited use, due to cost. tems control conveyors, robot trans ments. fer equipment, and other automatic machinery. Miscellaneous equipment High-speed molding machines, re Some reduction motely controlled saws, air-powered ments. handtools, and high-speed glueing and curing processes. Reconstituted wood panels Computer-controlled machinery mixes wood chips and resins. Mechanized conveyor belts and presses move and compress the panels. complish them, vary considerably from one part of the United States to another. In the South and East, trees of small diameter are prevalent, environmental regula tions are less stringent, and the terrain is usually not steep. Highly mobile harvesting equipment with the ca pacity to handle large volumes of small logs is used. In the West, there are large areas where terrain is rela tively flat and cutting conditions are similar to those in the East. But in the mountainous terrain that is more common in the West (including Alaska), environmen tal regulations are more strict and trees are often larger—factors which require different cutting and haul ing procedures. Diffusion of technology in logging operations is closely tied to industry structure. Most logging con tractors employ fewer than 6 full-time employees. in labor require In growing use. Mechnized operations reduce labor re Widely used in this part of the industry. quirements and increase technical skill requirements. Heavy machinery is usually adapted from agricultural or construction vehicles, although some equipment manufacturers—especially of skidding and loading ve hicles—direct their basic equipment primarily toward the logging market. T im ber m anagem ent. Foresters who manage tim ber-producing lands are using computers and other elec tronic and optical equipment more extensively. Com puter data files are being maintained for acreage planted or cut, types of wood available, market prices, etc. Models of different cutting scenarios can be run and the resulting market values calculated. Small electronic data recorders are available that can be carried into the field to record information on the type, size, and quan tity of trees, as well as slope and soil conditions. The 3 recorded information is electronically entered into com puter files. Data on forest areas are available through the use of aerial and satellite infrared photography. One southern logging company increased productiv ity by an estimated 30 percent when chainsaw opera tions were replaced by a feller buncher. Logging crews had cut an average of 550 to 650 tons of timber a week with chainsaws. When the feller buncher was put into use, output increased to 920-970 tons per week.1 Tree felling. Most trees are cut down by hand-held chainsaws or by mechanized feller bunchers. The feller bunchers are more productive but cannot be used in all situations. Feller bunchers are vehicles that move through a forest on tires or caterpillar tracks. They use hydraulically powered shears, or one of several types of saws (chain or circular) mounted on a boom, to cut tree trunks. The shears, which operate in a manner simi lar to a pair of scissors, work well on small- to me dium-diameter trees, but not on large trees. Often there is some damage to the tree trunk when it is cut with shears. Feller bunchers work best on level ground, and usually cannot be used on slopes with a grade of more than 25 to 30 percent. Feller bunchers are probably the dominant method of felling trees in the southern and eastern parts of the country, where terrain is not moun tainous and most timber (especially pine) is of small to moderate size. Chainsaws remain the dominant means of felling trees in the more mountainous areas of the West and Northwest. Moving logs from cutting areas to roads where they can be loaded onto log trucks is called “yarding ” Most yarding is done with ground-based equipment, which essentially means dragging the logs (with limbs and branches cut off) from one area to an other. More complex aerial yarding operations are used where ground-based systems are not feasible—but the cost is much higher, ranging from $15 per thousand board feet using ground-based skidders under optimum conditions to over $200 per thousand board feet when helicopters are used.2 Most ground-based yarding in volves the use of vehicles such as tractors and skidders Yarding operations. ’Richard W. Bryan, “ New Equipment Boosts Productivity by 30 Percent,” Forest Industries, March 1982, p.28. 2U .S. Congress, O ffice o f T ech n o lo g y A ssessm ent, Wood Use: U.S. Competitiveness and Technology, O T A -IT E -210 (W ashington, D .C ., A ugust 1983), p. 123. Logger using a feller buncher to cut trees. 4 breakdowns slow production, especially when the logging crew is working a long distance from its home base. Maintenance trucks—equipped with handtools, spare parts, and heavy equipment such as an air compressor, impact wrenches, and grinding and welding equipment— accom can pany logging vehicles into the field and make on-the-spot repairs. that can move large volumes of timber over terrain, except steep slopes. Improvements in equipment can increase productivity for logging crews. A very pro ductive arrangement involves using a feller buncher and a grapple skidder (a skidder fitted with a claw device for holding logs). The feller buncher cuts trees and leaves them in small stacks (or bunches). The grapple skidder, following along, picks up one end of the bunch and drags it to the loading area. A new model of skidder, equipped with a crane to provide self-loading capability, increases output and productivity in several ways: The self-loading feature, combined with a large hauling capacity, makes it pos sible for this skidder to replace two or three conven tional tracked skidders and to reduce crew size from eight workers to five or six. With fewer skidders, the number of skidder trips is lowered, fuel consumption is reduced, and there is less disruption of operations at the area where logs are removed from skidders and loaded on logging trucks. Also, since this type of skid der can haul logs over a longer distance, roadbuilding requirements for logging trucks are reduced.3 Where ground-based yarding is not feasible because of terrain conditions, more expensive aerial yarding op erations are required. The predominant method utilizes a spar and cable arrangement which resembles a fish ing rod and reel. Steel cables run from a drum at the base of the spar, up the spar, and out to the felling area, which might be 1,000 to 1,500 feet away. Yarding spars can move logs up and down steep slopes and across ravines. One of the most important developments in yarding spar technology has been the development of a mobile yarding crane. These new-model yarding cranes incor porate most of the refinements used on other types of spars. One model, for example, combines a small oper ating crew (two people), high operating speed, high mobility, and a yarding capability of up to 1,500 feet, which often allows the yarding crane to operate from roadside. The result is an expensive, but high-capacity yarder.4 Helicopters and balloons sometimes are used for log ging, but applications are limited because of the expense involved. These vehicles allow logging operations to be conducted in areas inaccessible to other logging sys tems or in localities where surface vehicles would cause an unacceptable amount of environmental damage. Sawmills Sawmills convert logs into lumber for commercial use. A number of technological developments have been introduced that increase productivity and mill effi ciency, including advances in log and lumber handling equipment, the introduction of computers into mills (primarily in sawing operations), and improvement in saw cutting edges. To some extent, the decline in the size of logs received by sawmills has stimulated the de velopment of new technology. But some of the im provements would have been introduced (although per haps more slowly) regardless of log size. Logs brought into a sawmill need to be unloaded, moved to storage areas, and eventually trans ported to the mill. Vehicles with hydraulic lifting arms—including front end loaders and log stackers—are commonly used. Cranes are used less frequently. Since sawmills vary in size, layout, storage space, and type and size of logs used, it is difficult to generalize about the most efficient method of moving logs. Overhead cranes on straight tracks or boom-type cranes on rotary tracks are very productive where tree-length logs are cut to length in the mill (many mills require that logs be cut to certain maximum lengths before delivery to the mill). Logs are moved from storage areas to log decks—platforms located adjacent to the mill that con tain conveyors which carry logs into the mill. The pile of logs in front of the log deck has to be loaded onto the log deck conveyors and fed into the sawmill one log at a time. One conventional way to load a log deck is for an operator, using a log stacking vehicle or small crane, to carry one log at a time to the deck. A more productive method is to use a machine—de veloped fairly recently—that unscrambles the logs and places one log at a time on the log deck. This machine, called a singulator, consists of a large rotating drum with metal fingers or flutes welded around the circum ference of the drum. When logs are stacked against the rotating drum, the flutes pick up single logs and lift them onto the log deck. During the late 1970’s, a num ber of singulators were developed that would handle logs up to 45 feet in length. New singulators that are large enough to handle tree-length logs are being in troduced. One model has a drum that is 70 feet long and has 8 flutes. This singulator, which rotates at 4 rpm, can handle 64 tree-length logs a minute—much more L og handling. Logging crew productivity has sometimes been increased by providing maintenance for log ging equipment while it is in the field. Equipment M aintenance support. 3John Friesen, “ Self-loading Skidder Aids Productivity Increase,” Logging and Sawmilling Journal, March 1984, pp. 14-16. 4Tony Whitney, “ Grapple Yarder Combines Speed With Distance,” Logging and Sawmilling Journal, August 1984, pp. 12-13. 5 though this is changing rapidly. Edger and trimmer op timizers, using scanners and computer control, position boards for the most economical cutting and trimming. Edger and trimmer saws are usually automated, and their control systems are sometimes linked to headsaw and sorter controls. Some changes in skill requirements and productivity have resulted from using automated sawing procedures, and the number of people required for some jobs may be reduced. In older, less automated mills, head sawyers are among the most highly skilled employees. But with computerized sawing, less decisionmaking is required of the head sawyer. There is disagreement in the indus try as to whether skills needed by a head sawyer are reduced. But it does appear that someone can be trained for this position in less time in a sawmill that uses com puterized sawing. Faster training also is possible for workers in other sawing operations in computerized systems: Edger and trimmer operators spend less time deciding the best method to cut each piece of lumber and concentrate more on visually inspecting wood for quality. How ever, maintenance operations have increased and have become more complex—especially electronic mainte nance associated with computers, scanners, and pro grammable controllers. Mill electricians increasingly need a strong background in solid-state electronics. The number of auxiliary people needed to keep wood mov ing along the conveyors from one sawing station to an other may be reduced in the most advanced mills. than an operator using a crane or front end loader can accomplish.5 C om puterized sawing. Logs must go through a number of cutting operations in a sawmill before they are con verted into wood products for commercial use. Central to all cutting operations, regardless of sawmill size and extent of mechanization, is the need to select the best method to cut the wood to achieve maximum yield and minimum waste. Logs are not uniform—lengths, diame ters, amounts of taper from top to bottom, and straight ness vary. The best cutting pattern for one log will probably not be the best pattern for the next one. Saw dust and scrap wood represent decreased revenues to a sawmill. Traditionally, cutting decisions are made by workers at each cutting station, with the most crucial decisions made by the head sawyer, who makes the first cuts on logs as they come into the mill. Individual skills are very important in determining how much useful wood is recovered from each log. Automated sawing operations have been developed to assist the sawyer in maximizing the yield from each piece of wood. The process involves using optical, infra red, or laser scanners to determine the configuration of each piece of wood just before it goes into a sawing station. That information is sent to a computer, which uses software incorporating models of wood configu rations and instructions on the best way to cut a par ticular piece to maximize yield. The computer compares the configuration of the scanned wood with the models in its memory, and selects the cutting pattern that best fits the piece of wood that has been scanned. Computer cutting decisions can be fully automated in systems that are available where the wood is scanned on its way to the saw, and put into the proper sawing position by hydraulic or pnuematic controls, as the saw blades are adjusted automatically. Then the wood is fed into the saw. In a fully automated system, the operator has manual override control. In less automated systems, the computer provides an operator with data on how to cut the wood, sometimes by display on a TV-like screen in the sawyer cubicle, but more often by focus ing laser guide beams in front of the saw blades. The operator aligns the wood according to the guides, and feeds it into the saw. Computerized sawing is used most frequently on a mill’s headsaw. This is where a log is first cut, the most complex sawing operation in the mill. Many new and renovated mills use computerized sawing operations on their headsaw. Other sawing operations—bucking, edg ing, trimming, etc.—are less frequently automated, al Thin-kerf saws are narrow, highly ac curate saw blades that make very thin cuts in a piece of wood, leaving more wood intact and less waste on the sawmill floor in the form of sawdust. While thinkerf saws allow a mill to get more useful lumber from a log, they require increased maintenance. Saw filing must be performed carefully, and the spacers and guides for the saw blades (which work at close tolerance) re quire precise machining. A mill that changes to thinkerf saw blades may have to increase the size of its saw filing crews or add more automated saw filing equipment. Stellite tipping on saw teeth reduces saw filing costs and increases cutting accuracy. Saw teeth that have been treated with Stellite can be used 4 times as long before changing and resharpening compared to un treated saw teeth. Until recently, Stellite had to be ap plied by hand, which was time consuming and yielded inconsistent results. Several semiautomatic methods to apply Stellite have been developed which require an operator to run the machinery but accomplish the tip ping operation with greater speed and consistency than is possible with hand applications. After the saw teeth have been coated with Stellite, they must be shaped on a grinding machine for accurate cutting (the grinding Im proved saws. 5Bob Westergaard, “ Log Preparation,” Logging and Sawmilling Jour nal, January 1983, pp. 21-23. 6 late 1970’s, rotates each block in the lathe and scans the block at a number of points around its circumfer ence and length (the X and Y points). The data are analyzed by computer, and the position of the block is automatically set to yield the maximum amount of sliced wood. Most of the scanners used are optical (one model is capable of scanning the block at 120 points in one second) and some are ultrasonic. X-Y chargers are cred ited with wood recovery improvements of 5-10 percent over the older method, in which a lathe operator (or spotter) had to center the block by hand using a shadow-line guide. Peeling speed and accuracy are further increased by use of a PLC-controlled digital hydraulic knife carriage and digital-powered backup roll, which provides part of the torque necessary to turn the block. The solid-state controls used to operate this equipment can be preset to handle blocks of different sizes. This adds an esti mated 2 percent to wood recovery rates, and makes possible faster changes of peeler blocks in the lathes.6 The peeled wood then goes through high-speed ro tary or guillotine clippers controlled by electronic scan ners. Some clippers are designed to operate at 500 feet per minute and have controls that include display ter minals and printers to record operating data. Jet veneer drying of veneer sheets, and mechanized panel layup (glueing together of veneer sheets to form panels) are commonly found in modern, high-output mills. Although these technologies have been in use for some time, improvements in solid-state controls con tinue to be introduced. operation increases accuracy for a saw blade whether it is coated with Stellite or not, but is often not done on uncoated saw blades). Cut lumber leaves a sawmill on a con veyor (called a “green chain”) that takes it to a storage area where it is sorted by size and quality and stored in bins. Lumber sorting is one of the most labor-inten sive operations in a sawmill. The traditional and most common method of sorting is entirely manual: A sorter pulls a piece of lumber off the conveyor, decides where it should go, and carries it to the proper stack or bin. A small mill might have 3 or 4 people sorting; a large mill might have 15 or 20. Highly automated lumber sorters are available that can eliminate most of this manual work. The automated sorting systems use scanners connected to computers or programmable controllers to determine lumber size. The computer or controller directs the mechanized sort ing system to place the lumber in the proper storage area. Automatic sorters are expensive but are being used more extensively in high labor cost areas to achieve large reductions in labor requirements. In areas where labor costs are low, the technology used varies by mill size: Large, high-output mills may use automatic sorters, but small and moderate-sized general-purpose mills may not find automated sorters to be cost effective. L u m b e r sorting. Veneer and plywood mills Technological changes have been introduced into this portion of the wood products industry in response to the growing use of small-diameter logs and, for soft woods, to changes in the types of woods used. The mechanized and automated equipment being introduced primarily affects softwood plywood production, which is a high-volume operation. Hardwood veneers and ply woods are more expensive and difficult to handle. They are often used in making furniture where careful han dling is required to protect the appearance of the wood. Consequently, high-speed operations are generally not compatible with hardwood veneers and plywoods. Softwood plywood mills make use of the same log handling equipment—including cranes, singulators, debarkers, and bucking saws—used by sawmills. These mills experience the same improvements in log handling operations as already described for sawmills. After the logs are cut into proper lengths, they are soaked in hot water vats. This softens the wood and facilitates peeling off of thin layers for plywood and veneer. Programmable logic controllers (PLC’s) main tain water temperature at 120 degrees or higher and operate pumps that continually circulate the water. Logs—or peeler blocks—are then mounted in lathes to be cut. The blocks can be automatically centered in the lathes by a recently developed process called an X-Y lathe charger. This equipment, introduced in the Wood kitchen cabinets Computer systems are available to cabinetmakers to provide data on materials and costs. Using these sys tems, a cabinetmaker enters the dimensions of each cabi net in a customer order, and the computer program calculates and prints out the manner in which each piece of wood needed to make the cabinet is to be cut, the total materials list, and a job cost report. At least one new system includes a terminal which can display a complete cabinet in any size or configuration. The data from the screen and keyboard are then translated into a list of materials, sizes, and prices. These systems pro vide sales personnel with rapid estimates for jobs, and reduce the amount of time and work required to design cabinets. Improved fasteners and fastening systems also have been developed to reduce assembly time for cabinets. The use of concealed hinges, for example, has resulted in significant gains in output. The hinge components can be easily inserted into holes which have been drilled into flat panels by automatic methods. 6“Plywood Manufacturing Is More Precise, Thanks to Computers,” Forest Industries, April 1983, p. 23. 7 mechanized and less labor intensive than plywood panel production. Employees need somewhat more technical aptitude and training to operate the equipment and to work with the formaldehyde-base resins used as adhe sives (emissions of which are regulated by both the En vironmental Protection Agency and the Department of Housing and Urban Deveopment). Millwork Millwork consists of cutting, shaping, and construct ing wood to specified dimensions. Millwork products include doors, wood awnings and louver windows, wood moldings and panel work, staircases and railings, window frames and trim, and many other products. Sawing, shaping, sanding, glueing, and glazing are part of millwork operations. Although millwork has been highly mechanized for several decades, automated systems are being intro duced in some mills. Numerical and microcomputer controls for machinery and for material handling sys tems are being used more frequently. Carousels that interface with conveyors, and robot transfer palletizing equipment are being introduced. Diffusion of these au tomated systems is currently rather slow—and may re main so, given the capital requirements and the pre dominance of small firms in the industry. Technologically advanced equipment designed spe cifically for millwork is in growing use. High-speed machines are being introduced that fabricate a large variety of moldings. Ripsaws with cutting patterns that are controlled by the shadows of an overhead wire are available. Abrasive planers equipped with solid-state sensing devices also have been developed that prepare more uniform wood surfaces. Air-powered handtools are gradually replacing electric models. Finally, high speed glueing and curing processes being introduced greatly reduce the time required for glueing operations and also make stronger bonds. All of these technolo gies can reduce labor requirements for operators. Output and Productivity Trends Output Output in the segments of the lumber and wood prod ucts industry for which BLS data are available, except for wood kitchen cabinets, has shown little change since 1970.7 In the sawmill and planing mill sector, annual output changed very little between 1970 and 1984, increasing at an average annual rate of only 0.4 percent (see chart 1). There was growth early in this period—averaging 4.9 percent a year from 1970 to 1973 and 1.0 percent between 1973 and 1978. Output declined after 1978, go ing down by an average rate of 0.7 percent a year through 1984. Despite the decline in output after 1978, the level was still noticeably higher in 1984 than in 1978. Output reached both its highest level (1979) and its lowest level (1982) for the entire 1970-84 period dur ing the final 5 years. Sawmill and planing mill output is very dependent upon construction activity, which was low in 1981 and 1982 and improved from 1983 to early 1986. The U.S. Department of Commerce esti mates that the output of sawmills and planing mills should decline later in 1986. The strength of the U.S. dollar has affected import and export levels for lumber. Exports of lumber declined in 1983, while imports from Canada increased. This dampened the increase in do mestic output that has taken place since 1982. Output for millwork declined very slightly, by an average annual rate of 0.4 percent, between 1970 and 1983 (see chart 2). Output grew strongly (11.9 percent a year) from 1970 to 1973, but after this high point in dustry output has been much slower. Output continued to grow, but just barely, at an average annual rate of 0.3 percent from 1973 to 1978, then declined by 3.3 percent a year from 1978 to 1983. Output dropped to its lowest point in 1982, then increased in 1983 due to growth in residential construction and renovation ac tivities. Most millwork production involves wooden doors, window frames, moldings, and architectural and exterior millwork. Output in this sector of the industry, therefore, rises and falls with construction activity. Output for wood kitchen cabinets increased at an av- Reconstituted wood panels Small pieces of wood are loaded together with resin and pressed into sheets of wooden panels that are about 3/4-inch thick. Wood for the panels commonly comes from sawmill and plywood mill scraps—wood chips and other residues. Logs of low-quality softwoods and inexpensive hardwoods are also used as raw materials when wood panel manufacturers need more control over the size of wood chips used. Particleboard is made of wood chopped down into small granules. For waferboard, larger wood chips are used. Oriented strandboard consists of strands of wood in criss-crossed layers for greater strength. Wood chips and resins are mixed in computer-con trolled machines, then deposited, in the form of 4-inch thick panels, onto moving belts. The belts carry the panels through a series of platen-type presses where heat and pressure are used to compress the panels, in stages, down to 3/4-inch thickness. Mixing, moving, and compressing operations are fairly automatic—one operator in a control room and a few people at the presses. Some final sanding of the panels is done, which is the most labor-intensive and least skilled job. The production of reconstituted wood panels is more 7 B L S does not have an output index for the entire lumber and w o o d products industry. Indexes are available for saw m ills and planing mills (SIC 2421), m illw ork (SIC 2431), w o o d kitchen cabinets (SIC 2432), and veneer and p lyw ood m ills (SIC 2435, 2436). 8 Chart 1. Sawmills and planing mills: Output per employee hour and related data, 1970-84 Ratio scale (1977 = 100) Ratio scale (1977 = 100) 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 9 1980 1982 1984 Chart 2. Millwork: Output per employee hour and related data, 1970-83 Ratio scale (1977 = 100) Ratio scale (1977 = 100) 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 10 1980 1982 1983 e r a g e a n n u a l r a t e o f 4 .5 p e r c e n t f r o m 1 9 7 2 t o 1 9 8 3 ( s e e i n c r e a s e d b y a n a v e r a g e a n n u a l r a t e o f 2 .5 p e r c e n t b e c h a r t 3 ). G r o w t h b e t w e e n 1 9 7 3 a n d 1 9 7 8 a v e r a g e d 8 .9 tw een p e r c e n t a y e a r ; o u t p u t d e c l i n e d t o it s l o w e s t p o i n t in s m a l l i n c r e a s e in o u t p u t ( 0 .7 p e r c e n t a n n u a l l y ) a n d a 1 9 7 5 , th e n g r e w s t r o n g ly th r o u g h 1 9 78. B u t fr o m 1978 l a r g e r d e c l i n e ( 1 .8 p e r c e n t a n n u a l l y ) in e m p l o y e e h o u r s . 1970 and 1 984. T h is in c r e a s e f o llo w e d fr o m a th r o u g h 1 9 8 3 , o u tp u t d e c lin e d at a n a v e r a g e a n n u a l ra te o f 2 .9 p e r c e n t , r e a c h i n g i t s h i g h e s t l e v e l in 1979, d e Investment c lin in g d u r in g e a c h s u c c e e d i n g y e a r th r o u g h 1 9 8 2 , th e n t u r n i n g s h a r p l y u p w a r d in 1 9 8 3 . O u tp u t fo r veneer and T h e lu m b e r a n d w o o d p r o d u c t s in d u s tr y s p e n t $ 5 3 5 p ly w o o d m ills g r e w very m illio n (in c o n s t a n t 1 9 7 2 d o lla r s ) o n p la n t a n d e q u ip s l o w l y , a t a n a v e r a g e a n n u a l r a t e o f 0 .7 p e r c e n t , f r o m m ent 1 9 7 0 t o 1 9 8 4 ( s e e c h a r t 4 ). G r o w t h w a s s t r o n g b e t w e e n t h r o u g h 1 9 7 4 , d e c l i n e d in 1 9 7 5 a n d 1 9 7 6 , t h e n j u m p e d 1 9 7 0 a n d 1 9 7 3 , a v e r a g i n g 6 .4 p e r c e n t , a n d c o n t i n u e d a t to s lig h tly m o r e th a n $1 b illio n e a c h y e a r fr o m a n a n n u a l r a t e o f 3 .7 p e r c e n t f r o m th ro u g h 1973 to 1978. A fte r in 1 9 7 0 .9 T h e a m o u n t in v e s t e d grew each year 1977 1 9 7 9 . T h is 3 -y e a r p e r io d w a s th e h ig h p o in t 1 9 7 8 , o u t p u t d e c l i n e d a t a n a n n u a l r a t e o f 0 .8 p e r c e n t fo r in v e s tm e n t b e t w e e n 1 9 7 0 a n d 1 9 8 1 . I n v e s tm e n t d e a y e a r t h r o u g h 1 9 8 4 . O u t p u t i n c r e a s e d in 1 9 8 3 a n d 1 9 8 4 , c l i n e d in 1 9 8 0 , 1 9 8 1 , a n d 1 9 8 2 ( r e a c h i n g a l o w p o i n t o f p r o p e lle d b y g r o w in g c o n s t r u c tio n a c tiv ity . T h is w a s $488 p a r t i c u l a r l y t r u e f o r s o f t w o o d v e n e e r a n d p l y w o o d in econom y. 1 9 8 4 , a s c a p a c it y u tiliz a tio n fo r th is p o r tio n o f th e in m illio n ), L o g g in g d u s tr y a v e r a g e d 9 0 p e r c e n t o r b e tt e r .8 r e fle c tin g th e o p e r a tio n s (S I C r e c e s s io n in th e U .S . 2 4 1 ) h a v e a c c o u n te d fo r 1 8 -3 4 p e r c e n t o f to ta l in v e s tm e n t o v e r th e 1 9 7 0 -8 2 p e r io d Productivity and a fa ir ly c o n s is t e n t 2 4 -3 0 p e r c e n t e a c h year s in c e 1 9 7 7 . A b o u t 9 0 p e r c e n t o f lo g g i n g e x p e n d itu r e s P r o d u c tiv ity (a s m e a s u r e d b y o u tp u t p e r e m p lo y e e a r e fo r e q u ip m e n t. h o u r ) i n c r e a s e d in 3 o u t o f t h e 4 s e g m e n t s o f l u m b e r S a w m ills a n d p la n in g m ills ( S I C 2 4 2 ) h a v e a b s o r b e d a n d w o o d p r o d u c t s fo r w h ic h B L S h a s d a ta . th e la r g e s t p o r t io n o f in v e s t m e n t e x p e n d it u r e s , r a n g in g O u t p u t p e r e m p l o y e e h o u r in s a w m i l l s a n d p l a n i n g fr o m 4 0 p e r c e n t to 53 p e r c e n t o f th e to ta l o v e r th e e n m i l l s i n c r e a s e d b y a n a v e r a g e a n n u a l r a t e o f 1 .7 p e r c e n t tir e 1 9 7 0 -8 2 p e r io d a n d a s t a b le 4 1 -4 5 p e r c e n t e a c h y e a r a y e a r fr o m s in c e 1 9 7 7 . A b o u t 2 0 p e r c e n t o f t h e s e e x p e n d itu r e s w e r e 1970 to 1 9 8 4 . T h is p r o d u c t iv it y g a in o c c u r r e d in s p i t e o f l i t t l e c h a n g e in o u t p u t o v e r t h e p e fo r n e w p la n ts a n d s tr u c tu r e s a n d 8 0 p e r c e n t fo r n e w r io d a s a w h o le b e c a u s e e m p l o y e e h o u r s d e c lin e d b y e q u ip m e n t. a n a v e r a g e o f 1 .3 p e r c e n t a y e a r . B o t h o u t p u t a n d e m M illw o r k , w o o d p l o y e e h o u r s r e a c h e d t h e i r h i g h e s t l e v e l s in 1 9 7 9 , a n d b o th m e a s u r e s d e c lin e d th r o u g h h o u r s d e c lin in g 1983 and m uch 1984, b o th 1982 (w ith e m p lo y e e c a b in e ts , a n d v en eer and p e n d it u r e s a n d w e r e c o n s i s t e n t ly in th e l o w - t o m i d - 2 0 - m o r e r a p id ly th a n o u tp u t ). In m e a s u r e s tu r n e d k it c h e n p l y w o o d m i l l s ( S I C 2 4 3 ) r e c e i v e d 1 7 -2 8 p e r c e n t o f e x p e r c e n t r a n g e s i n c e 1 9 7 7 . I n t h e e a r l y 1 9 7 0 ’s, 3 0 p e r u p w a r d a g a in , c e n t o f e x p e n d it u r e s w e r e fo r p la n t a n d 7 0 p e r c e n t fo r w it h o u tp u t g r o w in g a lit t le m o r e r a p id ly th a n e m p lo y e e e q u i p m e n t , b u t b y t h e l a t e 1 9 7 0 ’s a n d e a r l y 1 9 8 0 ’s, t h e s e h ou rs. r a tio s h a d c h a n g e d s o th a t e q u ip m e n t e x p e n d itu r e s w e r e In m illw o r k , o u tp u t p e r e m p lo y e e h o u r d e c lin e d at ta k in g 8 1 -8 4 p e r c e n t. a n a n n u a l r a t e o f 1 .0 p e r c e n t d u r i n g 1 9 7 0 - 8 3 , a s o u t p u t d e c l i n e d s l i g h t l y ( - 0 .4 p e r c e n t a n n u a l l y ) w h i l e e m p l o y e e Employment and Occupational Outlook h o u r s i n c r e a s e d s l i g h t l y ( 0 .5 p e r c e n t a n n u a l l y ) . O u t p u t p e r e m p l o y e e h o u r r o s e f r o m 1 9 7 0 t o 1 9 7 7 — b u t a t a n in Employment c r e a s i n g ly s l o w e r r a te — a ft e r w h ic h it d e c li n e d s t e a d ily . E m p l o y m e n t in l u m b e r a n d w o o d p r o d u c t s g r e w f r o m O u tp u t p e r e m p l o y e e h o u r fo r w o o d k it c h e n c a b in e t s 6 4 5 ,5 0 0 w o r k e r s in 1 9 7 0 t o 7 0 0 ,3 0 0 in 1 9 8 5 — a n a v e r i n c r e a s e d a t a n a v e r a g e r a t e o f 1 .8 p e r c e n t a y e a r b e tw e e n a g e a n n u a l g r o w t h r a t e o f 0 .5 p e r c e n t ( s e e c h a r t 5 ). I n 1 9 7 2 a n d 1 9 8 3 , as o u tp u t g r e w a lm o s t t w ic e a s d u s t r y e m p lo y m e n t e x p a n d e d r a p id ly d u r in g th e e a r ly r a p id ly a s e m p lo y e e h o u r s . T h is p a tte r n p r e v a ile d fr o m 1973 th ro u g h 1 9 7 0 ’s, d r o p p e d r a t h e r a b r u p t l y b y 1 9 7 5 , t h e n b e g a n t o 1978, th e n c h a n g e d as p r o d u c tiv ity d e grow c lin e d b y 0 .4 p e r c e n t a y e a r fr o m 1 9 7 8 t h r o u g h 1 9 8 2 — a r e s u lt o f o u tp u t d e c lin in g a little m o r e r a p id ly th a n 1 9 7 0 - 8 4 p e r i o d — 5 9 7 ,5 0 0 — d u r i n g t h e r e c e s s i o n in 1 9 8 2 . e m p lo y e e h o u rs. A fte r P r o d u c t i v i t y g a i n s w e r e g r e a t e s t in t h e v e n e e r a n d th o u g h p l y w o o d m ills s e c t o r w h e r e o u tp u t p e r e m p l o y e e h o u r 1982, e m p lo y m e n t b egan to in c r e a s e th e r e w a s a d e c lin e b e tw e e n a g a in , 1984 and a l 1985. 9 U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Industrial Economics, Office of Research, Analysis and Statistics. 1982 is the latest year for which these data are available. s1985 U.S. Industrial Outlook (U.S. Department of Commerce, Inter national Trade Administration, January 1985) pp. 4-14. a g a in . E m p l o y m e n t r e a c h e d it s h i g h e s t l e v e l in 1 9 7 9 — 7 6 7 , 0 0 0 — th e n d e c li n e d t o it s l o w e s t p o in t o f th e 11 Chart 3. Wood kitchen cabinets: Output per employee hour and related data, 1972-83 Ratio scale (1977 = 100) 1972 Ratio scale (1977 = 100) 1974 1976 1978 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 12 1980 1982 1983 Chart 4. Veneer and plywood mills: Output per employee hour and related data, 1970-84 Ratio scale (Index, 1977 = 100) Ratio scale (Index, 1977 = 100) 140 130 140 130 120 110 120 — 110 — —| Employee hours 100 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 1 1970 i. I i 1972 J ___ L J__ 1 1 __1 _ L J __1 _ L __ __1 _ _ 1974 1976 1978 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 13 1980 1982 1984 60 Chart 5. Employment in lumber and wood products, 1970-85, and projections, 1985-95 Employees (thousands) Employees (thousands) 'Compound interest method. 2 See text footnote 9. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 14 group) and some of the most unskilled laborers who move stock and other materials by hand. Employment declines are projected for several oc cupations, the most important of which is the group of forestry and logging occupations: Choke setters, fellers and buckers, forest and conservation workers, logging tractor operators, log gridders and scalers, and log han dling equipment operators. This group, which consti tuted 10 percent of 1984 industry employment, is pro jected to decline in size by almost 10 percent by 1995. Declines are also projected for administrative support personnel (which includes clerical occupations); serv ice occupations; and occupations involved with trans portation, material moving, and vehicle operations. The declining occupational groups account for about 27 per cent of employment. Industry sources indicate that demand is high for sev eral logging and sawmill occupations. In the logging portion, there is need for mechanics who can maintain feller bunchers, skidders, and other logging vehicles; and for skilled feller buncher and skidder operators (but not for chainsaw operators). Maintenance operations in sawmills are becoming more specialized. The “general handyman” maintenance worker is no longer sufficient in modern sawmills. Demand is particularly strong for electrical and electronic maintenance workers, for whom an understanding of solid-state electronics has become increasingly important. According to BLS projections, the outlook is for em ployment to remain almost flat, growing by an average annual rate of only 0.3 percent.1 0 Production worker employment increased at an an nual rate of 0.4 percent a year from 1970 to 1985. The pattern of increases and declines was similar to that for all employees, although the proportion of production workers has declined for the total industry and the sec tors discussed in this report. Employment for the logging portion of this industry rose from 70,300 in 1970 to 82,700 in 1985—an average annual increase of 1.1 percent. Employment declined slightly in 1971 and 1972, turned upward in 1973, and then remained fairly high (except for drops in 1975 and 1982) through 1984. The decline in the proportion of production workers to total employment was most pro nounced in this sector—declining from 86 percent to 80 percent. Sawmills and planing mills accounted for about 28 percent of industry employment in 1985, or 195,800 workers. This represents a decline averaging 0.6 per cent a year from 1970. Employment has been particu larly weak since 1980, with a number of mills closing due to poor market conditions. The millwork, plywood, and structural members por tion, which includes millwork, wood kitchen cabinets, and plywood and veneer mills, has grown slightly in importance within the wood products industry. Em ployment grew from 197,400 in 1972 (the first year for which separate employment data are available) to 231,300—or at an average rate of 1.2 percent a year. The proportion of industry employment increased from 27 percent in 1972 to 33 percent in 1984. Adjustment of workers to technological change Occupations BLS projects an increase in employment in most of the major occupational groups between 1984 and 1995. Employment increases of about 10 percent or more are anticipated for managerial and engineering occupations, construction trades, precision production occupations, and skilled handworking occupations—which, together, accounted for 26 percent of 1984 employment. Smaller increases are projected for technicians; mechanics, installers, and repairers; machine setters, set-up opera tors, operators, and tenders; and laborers and material moving helpers. This group, accounting for 40 percent of industry employment, contains several important woodworking occupations: Head sawyers; operators, set-up operators, and tenders for sawing machines and woodworking machines; machine feeders; and people who move material by hand. Employment increases are projected for all of these individual ocupations except head sawyers (one of the highest skilled jobs in this 10 For details on assumptions and methodology used to develop these pro jections, see the M o n th ly L a b o r R e v ie w , November 1985. 15 There appears to be little specific emphasis on ad justment to technological change in this industry. The emphasis is primarily on increasing productivity, whether within the framework of collective bargaining contracts or through more informal company programs. Union representation is strong in some parts of the country—mainly in the West and Northwest where the International Woodworkers of America is the predomi nant union. Seniority is the principal form of job secu rity in IWA contracts. Retirements, layoffs and recalls, plant closings, transfer rights, and training opportuni ties are based primarily on seniority, or on a combina tion of seniority and skill qualifications. The IWA also proposes a cooperative union-manage ment program to increase productivity and save jobs. This program involves worker participation in solving problems of safety, productivity, quality, and service. Joint committees would be staffed by union and man agement personnel, and decisions would be reached by consensus. The program also involves financial rewards for workers when cost savings result from these proposals. Union-management committees have been established in several wood products mills and plants; some have been in operation for a decade or more. A union-man agement committee was begun in the 1970’s by an IWA 2 - y e a r tr ia l p e r io d , h a s b e e n r e n e w e d .11 lo c a l a n d t h e m a n a g e m e n t o f a h a r d w o o d lu m b e r a n d v e n e e r s a w m ill. T h e p r o b le m s o n w h ic h th is c o m m it T h e r e is l i t t l e u n i o n r e p r e s e n t a t i o n in t h i s i n d u s t r y in t e e h a s w o r k e d in c lu d e j o b tr a in in g a n d im p r o v e m e n t s th e S o u th . In th is a r e a , la b o r c o s t s a r e g e n e r a ll y lo w e r , in p r o d u c t i v i t y a n d p r o d u c t q u a l i t y . T h e p l a n t a l s o d e a n d th e r e m a y b e le s s e ff o r t b y m ills t o s u b s titu te a u v e l o p e d a p la n in 1982 to p r o v id e e m p lo y e e b o n u s e s to m a te d a n d m e c h a n iz e d e q u ip m e n t fo r la b o r . I n th is fo r o u tp u t im p r o v e m e n t s . A n o t h e r I W A lo c a l a n d s a w e n v ir o n m e n t, in d iv id u a l c o m p a n ie s ( w h ic h s o m e tim e s m ill m a n a g e m e n t c o m m it t e e m a d e p r o v is io n fo r p la n t m e a n s in d iv id u a l m ills ) m a k e th e ir o w n p o lic ie s c o n e m p l o y e e s t o h a v e a v o i c e in a c o m p a n y d e c i s i o n t o c e r n in g tr a in in g , la y o f f s a n d r e c a lls , e t c . O n e la r g e c o m a c q u ir e a c o m p u t e r . p a n y w it h s e v e r a l s o u th e r n s a w m ills h a s a n e m p lo y e e A lo c a l c h a p te r o f th e U n ite d B r o th e r h o o d o f C a r in v o lv e m e n t p r o g r a m w h ic h g iv e s e a c h e m p lo y e e s e v p e n te r s a n d J o in e r s o f A m e r ic a d e v e lo p e d a n e m p lo y e e e r a l o p p o r tu n itie s e a c h m o n t h t o d is c u s s p r o b le m s o r i n v o l v e m e n t p la n w i t h a m a n u f a c t u r e r o f w o o d d o o r s id e a s w it h f e llo w a n d p l y w o o d p r o d u c t s in 1 9 8 1 . T h i s p r o g r a m a c c o m c ir c le m e e t in g s a r e u s e d , a s w e ll a s in fo r m a l o n e - t o - o n e p l i s h e d a r e d u c t i o n in m a t e r i a l s c o s t s a n d i n c r e a s e d p r o m e e t in g s d u c t iv it y a n d q u a lity , a s w e ll a s p a y in g b o n u s e s t o e m s u p e r v is o r . p l o y e e s in 1 9 8 2 . T h e p r o g r a m r e q u i r e s a c o m m i t m e n t 11U .S. Department o f Labor, R esou rce G uide to L abor-M an agem en t C ooperation (October 1983), pp. 36, 53, 96. o f tim e a n d e ffo r t fr o m e v e r y o n e in v o lv e d a n d , a fte r a b e tw e e n e m p lo y e e s a n d s u p e r v is o r s . Q u a lit y each e m p lo y e e and h is or her SELECTED REFEREN CES Bryan, Richard W. “ New Equipment Boosts Productivity by 30 Per cen t,” F o rest In d u stries, M arch 1982, p. 28. U .S. Departm ent o f C om m erce, International Trade Adm inistration. 1985 U.S. In d u s tria l O u tlo o k . January 1985, pp. 4-1 to 4-16. D u ke, John and C lyd e Huffstutler. “P roductivity in Saw m ills In creases as Labor Input D eclin es Substantially,” M o n th ly L a b o r R e view, April 1977, pp. 33-37. U .S. Farris, Mary Robinson. “ The Veneer and Plywood Industry: AboveAverage Productivity G ains,” M onthly L a b o r R e v ie w , September 1978, pp. 26-30. V eigle, Jack and H orst Brand. “M illw ork Industry S h o w s S lo w G row th in P rod u ctivity,” M o n th ly L a b o r R e view , Septem ber 1982, pp. 21-26. Friesen, John. “Self-loading Skidder A ids P roductivity Increase,” L o g g in g a n d S a w m illin g Jo u rn a l, M arch 1984, pp. 14-16. W estergaard, Bob. “L o g Preparation,” L o g g in g a n d S a w m illin g Jo u r nal, January 1983, pp. 21-23. “P ly w o o d M anufacturing Is M ore Precise, Thanks to Com puters,” F o rest In d u stries, April 1983, p. 23. Whitney, Tony. “ Grapple Yarder Combines Speed With Distance,” L o g g in g a n d S a w m illin g Jou rn al, A u gust 1984, pp. 12-13. U .S. Congress, O ffice o f T ech n o lo g y A ssessm ent. W ood Use: U.S. C o m p etitiven ess a n d Technology. O T A -IT E -210, A ugust 1983. Department o f Labor, R esou rce G uide to L abor-M an agem en t C ooperation , O ctober 1983. 16 Chapter 2. Footwear Summary w o r k e r s in t h i s in d u s t r y . S o m e c o n t r a c t s a l s o h a v e s p e c ia l p r o v is io n s t o d e a l w it h th e m a n y la y o f f s r e s u ltin g T h e f o o t w e a r in d u s tr y (S I C 3 1 4 ) r e m a in s h ig h ly c o m f r o m p la n t s h u t d o w n s . p e t i t i v e , b u t it a l s o h a s b e c o m e m o r e c o n c e n t r a t e d w i t h t h e c l o s i n g o f m a n y s m a l l e r p la n t s . T w e n t y - t h r e e f ir m s , o r l e s s th a n 1 0 p e r c e n t o f th e to t a l, p r o d u c e d a b o u t h a l f o f Industry Structure th e in d u s t r y ’s f o o t w e a r in 1 9 8 4 . W ith s o m e e x c e p tio n s , th e a d o p tio n o f a u to m a te d A lt h o u g h th e f o o t w e a r in d u s tr y 2 r e m a in s h ig h ly c o m m a c h in e r y h a s n o t a d v a n c e d r a p id ly , a n d t h e o u t lo o k is n o t m u c h m o r e p r o m i s i n g in v i e w p e t it iv e , t h e la r g e s t fir m s h a v e c o n s o lid a t e d th e ir c o m o f th e h ig h c o s t p e t it iv e p o s it io n d u r in g t h e p a s t 10 y e a r s a n d n o w a c o f e q u ip m e n t a n d g r o w in g im p o r ts . N e v e r t h e le s s , s o m e c o u n t f o r a s u b s t a n t i a l s h a r e o f t h e i n d u s t r y ’s o u t p u t . t e c h n o lo g ie s a r e g a in in g a c c e p t a n c e . F o r e x a m p le , th e d i f f u s i o n o f c o m p u t e r - a i d e d d e s i g n is e x p e c t e d W h ile n o s in g le fo o t w e a r m a n u fa c tu r e r a c c o u n ts fo r to in m o r e th a n 8 p e r c e n t o f to ta l f o o t w e a r o u tp u t, th e in c r e a s e s t e a d ily a s a r e s u lt o f th e d e v e lo p m e n t o f s m a ll, c o s t-e ffe c tiv e c o m p u ters. S im ila r ly , d u s t r y h a s b e c o m e m o r e c o n c e n t r a t e d a s 2 3 fir m s , o r m ic r o p r o c e s le s s th a n 10 p e r c e n t o f th e to ta l, p r o d u c e d a b o u t h a lf s o r - c o n t r o l l e d m a c h i n e s in s e v e r a l p r o c e s s e s t h a t a r e o f t h e i n d u s t r y ’s f o o t w e a r in 1 9 8 4 . S o m e o f t h e l a r g e s t h i g h l y la b o r i n t e n s i v e a r e a l s o l i k e l y t o b e a d o p t e d r a m a n u fa c tu r e r s a ls o o w n a n d o p e r a te m a n y r e ta il f o o t p i d l y , a t l e a s t b y t h e l a r g e r f ir m s . O u t p u t o f f o o t w e a r in w e a r e s t a b l i s h m e n t s . M o s t o f t h e f i r m s a r e v e r y s m a ll: 1 9 8 4 w a s a b o u t 3 0 0 m illio n A b o u t 7 0 p e r c e n t o f t h e fir m s a c c o u n t fo r le s s th a n p a ir s , t h e s m a l l e s t q u a n t i t y s i n c e t h e e a r l y 1 9 3 0 ’s . I m o n e -f ift h o f to ta l o u tp u t. S in c e 1 9 6 5 , w h e n th e n u m b e r p o r t s g r e w s u b s t a n t i a l l y in a l l b u t 3 y e a r s d u r i n g 1 9 7 0 - o f p la n ts p e a k e d a t 9 9 0 , a g r e a t n u m b e r o f c lo s in g s h a v e 8 4 . T h e im p o r t p e n e tr a tio n r a tio 1 m o r e th a n d o u b le d , r e d u c e d th e to t a l, t o a b o u t 4 5 0 p la n ts in 1 9 8 4 . f r o m 3 0 p e r c e n t in 1 9 7 0 t o 6 3 p e r c e n t in 1 9 8 3 t o a n e s M a n u f a c t u r i n g p l a n t s f o r f o o t w e a r a r e l o c a t e d in 4 1 t i m a t e d 7 2 p e r c e n t in 1 9 8 4 . S t a t e s in a ll r e g i o n s o f t h e c o u n t r y . A m o n g t h e S t a t e s , P r o d u c t iv it y in c r e a s e d v e r y s lig h t ly o v e r t h e p e r io d 1 9 7 0 -8 4 , a s o u tp u t a n d e m p lo y e e h o u r s fe ll a t a lm o s t M a in e a c c o u n t s fo r th e h ig h e s t p r o p o r tio n (1 2 p e r c e n t) th e s a m e r a te . In th e p e r io d 1 9 8 0 -8 4 , p r o d u c t iv it y a d o f t o t a l o u t p u t . A b o u t 2 5 p e r c e n t o f d o m e s t i c o u t p u t is v a n c e d a t a n a v e r a g e a n n u a l r a t e o f 1 .4 p e r c e n t , w i t h p r o d u c e d in t h e N e w E n g l a n d S t a t e s , a b o u t 4 5 p e r c e n t in t h e N o r t h C e n t r a l a n d M i d d l e A t l a n t i c S t a t e s , a n d a s h a r p e r d e c l i n e in e m p l o y e e h o u r s t h a n in o u t p u t . a p p r o x i m a t e l y 3 0 p e r c e n t in t h e S o u t h a n d W e s t . C a p it a l e x p e n d i t u r e s ( in c o n s t a n t 1 9 7 2 d o l l a r s ) a v e r In r e c e n t y e a r s , t h e la r g e r fir m s h a v e c o n c e n t r a t e d a g e d $ 3 4 m illio n a n n u a lly d u r in g 1 9 7 0 -8 2 , v ir t u a lly th e p r o d u c t i o n o f c e r t a i n s h o e p a r t s in s e p a r a t e p la n t s . S u c h s a m e a v e r a g e o u t l a y a s in 1 9 6 0 - 7 0 , b u t t h e t r e n d f o r t h e s p e c ia liz a t io n h a s e n a b le d th e fir m s t o in s ta ll m o r e a d i m m e d i a t e y e a r s a h e a d is u n c e r t a i n . v a n c e d m a c h in e s fo r v o lu m e p r o d u c tio n . D u r in g 1 9 7 0 -8 5 , e m p lo y m e n t d e c lin e d r a p id ly , a t a n S o m e s h o e c o m p a n ie s a r e p u r c h a s in g s o le s p r o d u c e d a n n u a l r a t e o f 4 . 0 p e r c e n t . I n 1 9 8 5 , a n a v e r a g e o f 9 9 ,9 0 0 o u t s i d e o f t h e s h o e m a n u f a c t u r i n g in d u s t r y . T h e s e s o l e s , p e r s o n s w e r e w o r k i n g in f o o t w e a r m a n u f a c t u r i n g , t h e s m a l l e s t n u m b e r in a n y y e a r s i n c e know n 1 9 3 9 (e a r lie s t d a ta sh o e a v a ila b le ). T h e B u r e a u o f L a b o r S ta t is t ic s p r o je c t s c o n 1 9 8 5 - 9 5 , w i t h e m p l o y m e n t in m easu re of jo b and c e m en ted to sh o e u p p ers, th e s h o e fa c to r y . A b o u t o n e -fo u r th o f d o m e s tic s h o e s 1995 25 p ercen t a r e m a d e w i t h s u c h u n it b o t t o m s . l o w e r t h a n in 1 9 8 5 . A “ u n it b o t t o m s , ” a r e p u r c h a s e d b y t h e r e b y e l i m i n a t i n g l a b o r w h i c h w o u l d b e r e q u i r e d in t i n u a t i o n o f t h e s h a r p e m p l o y m e n t d e c l i n e in f o o t w e a r d u r in g a s m o ld e d m a n u fa c tu r e r s s e c u r ity is p r o v id e d by S o m e 1 0 0 f o o t w e a r m a n u fa c tu r e r s a r e a ls o im p o r te r s , th e w h o c o n t r a c t fo r th e m a n u fa c tu r e o f s h o e s o r p a r ts o f p l a n t w i d e s e n i o r i t y w h i c h p r e v a i l s in l a b o r - m a n a g e m e n t c o n tr a c ts c o v e r in g b e tw e e n 25 a n d 5 0 p e r c e n t o f th e 1 Imports as a percent o f dom estic production plus imports minus exports. 17 2 T he industry (SIC 314) covers all nonrubber footw ear. It includes w om en ’s footw ear, m en’s footw ear, all other nonrubber footw ear, and house slippers. s h o e s in f o r e i g n c o u n t r i e s . 3 I n 1 9 8 3 , t h e i m p o r t s o f t h e s e c o m p u t e r i z e d t e c h n o l o g i e s in t h e i n d u s t r y s t i l l c o n s i s t U .S . fir m s r e p r e s e n t e d o f o n ly o n e o r a f e w a b o u t o n e -th ir d o f to ta l sh o e im p o r t s . CAM d is tin c t a p p lic a tio n s o f C A D fu n c tio n s . T h e a p p lic a tio n s o f C A M or u s u a lly e n ta il s t a n d - a l o n e m a c h i n e s t h a t p e r f o r m a s i n g l e o p e r a tio n , a lt h o u g h a s m a ll n u m b e r o f th e la r g e r fir m s h a v e Technology in the 1980’s The d iffu s io n w id e s p r e a d in o f a u to m a tic th is in d u s t r y . c o n tr o ls has C o m p u te r jo in e d not b een ty p e s of CAM e q u ip m e n t w ith th e ir o p e r a t i o n is e x p e c t e d t o r e c e i v e s o m e w h a t g r e a t e r e m c o n tr o ls , p h a s i s in t h e f u t u r e b y t h e l a r g e s t c o m p a n i e s . m ic r o p r o c e s s o r c o n tr o ls , a n d n u m e r ic a l c o n tr o ls h a v e b e e n a d o p t e d b y o n l y a s m a ll p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e i n d u s Computer-aided design. t r y , p r i m a r i l y t h e la r g e r f ir m s . T h e i n c e n t i v e t o a u t o T h e u s e o f C A D in d e s i g n i n g a n d p a t t e r n g r a d i n g r e d u c e s u n it l a b o r r e q u i r e m e n t s a n d m a t e is l e s s e n e d b y t h e h i g h c o s t o f s u c h m a c h i n e r y , im p r o v e s q u a lity . M o s t m o d e r n f o o t w e a r C A D s y s t e m s t h e f r e q u e n t c h a n g e s in s h o e s t y l e s , a n d t h e g r o w t h in u t i l i z e s i m i l a r m o d e s o f o p e r a t i o n . I n t h e in i t i a l d e s i g n im p o r ts o f s h o e s a n d p a r ts o f s h o e s . T h e fa c t th a t m o s t o p e r a t i o n , t h e la s t , a t h r e e - d i m e n s i o n a l f o r m w h i c h r e p d o m e s t ic s h o e f a c t o r ie s w o r k o n ly o n e s h ift c a n a ls o r e se n ts th e fo o t o n w h ic h m a k e th e p u r c h a s e o f a u to m a te d e q u ip m e n t d if fic u lt to t h e s h o e is c o n s t r u c t e d , is n u m e r ic a lly d e fin e d b y “ d ig it iz in g ” th e su r fa c e o f th e ju s tif y . la s t . T h r o u g h t h e u s e o f s p e c i a l c o m p u t e r s o f t w a r e , t h i s M i c r o p r o c e s s o r - c o n t r o l l e d i n s t r u m e n t s ( M C I ’s ) c o n is t u r n e d i n t o a t w o - d i m e n s i o n a l s u r f a c e . A t r o l f u n c t i o n s in a n y p r o g r a m m a b l e s e q u e n c e a n d h a v e of e x te n s iv e r e la y c o n tr o ls , or fo o tw e a r d e s ig n e r , u s in g a g r a p h ic c a t h o d e r a y tu b e ( C R T ) , d e s e v e r a l o p e r a t i n g a d v a n t a g e s o v e r a n in s t r u m e n t c o m p r is e d several C A D . T e c h n o lo g y th a t c o m b in e s m o r e th a n a s in g le s ig n s a n e w p a tte r n s t y le o n th e tw o -d im e n s io n a l su r m e c h a n ic a l fa c e , w h ic h c a n b e e a s ily m o d if ie d o n th e C R T d u r in g s w it c h e s th a t c o n tr o l e le c tr ic a l c u r r e n t. A n M C I , c o n th e d e v e lo p m e n t p r o c e ss . s is tin g o f a la r g e - s c a le in te g r a te d c ir c u it o r a s e t o f in te g r a te d c ir c u its , p e r fo r m s th e fu n c t io n s o f a c e n tr a l p r o c e s s i n g u n it a n d m a y b e u s e d in c o m b i n a t i o n w i t h s e n s o r d e v i c e s . H o w e v e r , in f o o t w e a r m a n u f a c t u r e , t h e c o s t e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f M C I ’s d e p e n d s o n h o w e x t e n s i v e t h e t o o l in g ( w o r k - h o ld in g d e v ic e s ) r e q u ir e m e n ts a r e fo r a p a r tic u la r o p e r a tio n . T h e p r i n c i p a l i m p r o v e m e n t s w i t h t h e u s e o f M C I ’s a r e u s u a l l y a p p a r e n t in t h e r e d u c t i o n o f m a c h i n e s e t u p t i m e a n d a r e a s s o c i a t e d w i t h l o w e r u n it l a b o r r e q u i r e m e n ts . M a te r ia ls s a v in g s a n d e n e r g y c o n s e r v a t io n a r e a d d itio n a l b e n e fits . M o r e o v e r , o p e r a t o r s c a n a d a p t q u i t e r e a d i l y t o M C I ’s. T h e M C I o ft e n h a s a p r o g r a m m a b le c o n t r o lle r , a n d th e m a c h i n e ’s o p e r a t o r o n l y n e e d s t o s e l e c t a c o m b i n a t i o n o f l e t t e r s a n d n u m b e r s in o r d e r t o m a k e c h a n g e s . I n a d d it io n , th e v a r ia b le s o f a p r o c e s s u s u a lly o n ly r e q u ir e th e m o n ito r in g o f m e a s u r e m e n ts th a t a re o n c o n tin u o u s d i s p l a y . T h e M C I is s i m p l e r t h a n a n e t w o r k o f r e l a y c o n t r o l s , w h i c h m a y r e q u ir e c o n s i d e r a b l e l a b o r f o r w i r in g , d e b u g g in g , and m a in te n a n c e . H ow ever, m a in te n a n c e p e r s o n n e l u s u a lly n e e d a k n o w le d g e o f e le c t r o n ic s t o m a i n t a in M C I e q u i p m e n t . Footwear designer using 3D color computer-aided design system. T h e m a jo r t e c h n o l o g ie s , th e ir la b o r im p a c t, a n d th e ir d i f f u s i o n a r e s u m m a r i z e d in t a b l e 2. A f t e r a n e w s t y l e is a c c e p t e d a n d d e v e l o p e d f o r p r o Computer-aided systems d u c tio n , th e p a tte r n m u s t b e “ g r a d e d ,” in v o lv in g th e C o m p u t e r - a i d e d s y s t e m s in f o o t w e a r m a n u f a c t u r i n g p r o d u c tio n i n v o l v e a p p lic a tio n s o f c o m p u t e r -a id e d d e s ig n ( C A D ) o f p a t t e r n s f o r a ll t h e d i f f e r e n t s i z e s a n d w i d t h s in w h i c h a n d c o m p u t e r - a id e d m a n u f a c tu r in g ( C A M ) . M o s t o f th e th e f o o t w e a r w ill b e m a n u fa c tu r e d . W h e r e a s m a n u a l g r a d in g b y s p e c ia lis ts c o u ld r e q u ir e se v e r a l w e e k s , th e p r o d u c tio n o f p a tte r n s o n th e C A D 3 United States International Trade Com m ission, Nonrubber Foot wear, U S IT C Publication 1545, July 1984, p. A - 16. s y s te m c a n b e a c h ie v e d w ith in h o u r s, a n d w it h g r e a te r accuracy. 18 Table 2. M ajor technology changes in foo tw ear Description Technology Diffusion Labor implications Computer-aided design (CAD) Shoe styles can be depicted rapidly Unit labor requirements can be on a screen. CAD is also used to greatly reduced compared to the manual process. derive measurements for com ponent parts of a shoe prior to its production. Computer-controlled stitching Most advanced stitching is on A productivity inrease of at least 25 Diffusion during the next 5-10 years m icroprocessor-controlled ma percent is associated with some is expected to increase, as new chines. The machines— used for decline in employment and re machines with improved stitch functional and fancy stitching— placement of skilled workers by quality and functional capability stitch automatically with plug-in are developed. semiskilled operators. A mechanic modules that contain stitching can often become qualified to pro patterns. gram the modules. Numerically controlled (NC) upper roughing machine NA machine automatically directs a brush in roughing part of the shoe upper to provide a base for cementing. Forepart pulling and lasting machine, with microprocessor control Automatic size determination and Unit labor requirements and skill Increased use is expected by larger and medium-sized firms during the positioning assure precise cement requirements of operators are re ing of upper to the insole. duced. Programming can be easi next 5 years. ly mastered by workers with ex perience in lasting. Injection molding machine with micro processor control Automatically molds a shoe bottom Injuction molding eliminates steps Moderate expansion in use expect from thermoplastic or polyure and is therefore much less labor ed, especally among large and thane to the upper. Machine intensive. Automatic loading fea medium-sized firms during the next parameters— e.g., temperature— ture may eliminate one operator 5 years. can be set through simple digital on a molding machine. input. Sole laying press Machine automatically determines the contour of shoe's bottom and adjusts for heel height to assure that shoe is accurately positioned before permanent attachment of sole to shoe bottom. Unit labor requirements are slightly lower than for manual roughing, since operator may perform other work after machine is set in mo tion. Operator skill requirements reduced. Used by 45 firms; use is expected to grow with small, cost-effective computers. Rapid diffusion anticipated, espe cially among larger firms. Less operator skill is required, and Continued diffusion from current level of about 15 percent is likely during quality'of output is improved over the next 5 years. that of machines without auto matic adjustments. in t h e i r p la n t s , a n d t h e e it h e r c a n n o t a ffo r d o r p r e fe r n o t t o a s s u m e th e c o s t o f t e c h n o l o g y ’s d i f f u s i o n is e x p e c t e d t o i n c r e a s e s t e a d i l y s u c h c a p i t a l o u t l a y s . O n l y t w o l a r g e f i r m s in a 1 9 8 3 w ith in th e n e x t 5 y e a r s a s a r e su lt o f a r e c e n t v e r y sh a r p s u r v e y o f s h o e m a n u f a c t u r e r s p la n n e d t o i n v e s t in t w o A b o u t 4 5 fir m s h a v e C A D d e c l i n e in t h e p r i c e o f c o m p u t e r s . I t is e s t i m a t e d t h a t n e w ly a v a ila b le c o m p u t e r -c o n tr o lle d t e c h n o lo g ie s fo r t h e n u m b e r o f fir m s w it h C A D m o r e th a n tr ip le d b e m a k in g m o ld s a n d la s ts , w h ic h e n ta il v a r io u s s h a p in g t w e e n 1 9 8 3 a n d 1 9 8 5 , a s fir m s in s ta lle d s m a ll, b u t p o w o p e r a t i o n s 4. I n a d d i t i o n , c o m p u t e r - c o n t r o l l e d m a c h i n er fu l a n d e a r ly e r y is n o t a v a i l a b l e ( o r e l s e n o t t h o r o u g h l y p r o v e n ) in w a s lim ite d t o la r g e fir m s, fu r th e r a g r e a t n u m b e r o f th e s till s e p a r a te fu n c t io n s th a t m a k e i n v e s t m e n t in t h e t e c h n o l o g y is e x p e c t e d t o t a k e p l a c e u p s h o e m a n u fa c tu r in g . F o r e x a m p le , th e m in ic o m p u a m o n g s o m e m e d i u m - s iz e d a n d e v e n s m a ll m a n u f a c tu r e r s . t e r - c o n t r o l l e d k n i f e h a s r e c e i v e d l i m i t e d a p p l i c a t i o n in c o s t-e ffe c tiv e y ears, w h e n C A D co m p u ters. U n lik e th e c u t t i n g s y n t h e t i c m a t e r ia l s . Computer-aided manufacture. The d a t a a n d t a p e s d e v e l o p e d in t h e C A D u sed in m a n u f a c tu r in g p ro cesses, p a tte r n g r a d in g Computer-controlled stitching. p ro cess can be in c lu d in g The m ost advanced s titc h in g m a c h in e r y is u s u a lly c o n t r o lle d b y m ic r o p r o c e s s o r - com p u te r -c o n tr o lle d c u tt in g a n d s titc h in g . H o w e v e r , m o s t fir m s, w it h th e e x c e p t io n o f th e la r g e s t, h a v e p u r c h a s e d 4 Footwear Industries o f America, Survey o f the S tate o f the A rt in F oot w e a r M anufacturing a n d Identification P rio rities a n d M echanism s to A ccelera te the D evelopm en t a n d A pplication o f A dv a n c ed Technology in the U.S. F ootw ear M anufacturing Industry, Vol. 1 (Philadelphia, FIA, April o n ly lim ite d t y p e s o f c o m p u t e r - a id e d m a c h in e r y . A s a n a lt e r n a tiv e , b u s in e s s e n te r p r is e s k n o w n a s “ s e r v ic e b u r e a u s ” a r e a v a ila b le to p e r fo r m th e c u ttin g (a n d th e 1983), p. 22. p a tte r n g r a d in g ) s e r v ic e fo r m a n y m a n u fa c tu r e r s w h o 19 b a s e d c o m p u t e r s . T h e o p e r a t io n s in c lu d e m a j o r f u n c t io n a l b o th s t it c h in g s u c h a s v a m p in g (a t ta c h m e n t o f th e v a m p o r fr o n t u tiliz in g te m p la te s , in c lu d in g th e p o s s ib ilit y o f o p e r a t p a r t o f a s h o e ’s u p p e r to th e q u a r te r o r b a c k p a r t), a s w e l l in g o n a w id e r r a n g e o f s h o e ty p e s a n d g r e a te r sp e e d a s f a n c y d e s i g n s t it c h in g . m o d u le s th a t c o n ta in s t itc h in g it y o f r o u g h in g c a n a ls o im p r o v e th e p r o c e s s o f s o le p a tte r n s. T h e a tta c h m e n t w h ic h fo llo w s . m o d u le s , t e c h n ic a lly id e n tifie d a s e r a s a b le -p r o g r a m m a b le - r e a d -o n ly - m e m o r y a n d th e a u to m a tic m a c h in e in s h i f t i n g f r o m o n e s h o e s t y l e t o a n o t h e r . B e t t e r q u a l T h e s e m a c h in e s s t it c h a u t o m a t ic a lly a n d r a p id ly w it h p lu g -in th e m a n u a l m e th o d (E P r o m ) card s, can be U n it la b o r r e q u ir e m e n ts a r e s lig h t ly lo w e r fo r r o u g h pro in g w it h th e N C m a c h in e th a n w it h th e m a n u a l p r o c g r a m m e d d ir e c t ly o n th e m a c h in e . A n o p e r a to r lo a d s e s s , in D a rt b e c a u s e o f t h e d e c r e a s e in t h e n u m b e r o f w o r k p ie c e s a n d p u sh e s a b u tto n , a n d th e E P r o m ca rd d a m a g e d s h o e s . S h o e s a r e s o m e t i m e s d a m a g e d in t h e c a r r ie s o u t a n o p e r a tio n a u to m a tic a lly fo r a w h o le r a n g e m a n u a l p r o c e s s w h e n th e o p e r a to r h o ld s a s h o e in c o r o f f o o t w e a r s iz e s . F o o t w e a r m a n u fa c tu r e r s c a n p u r c h a s e r e c t l y in a p p l y i n g it t o t h e r o t a t i n g b r u s h . A l s o , u n it f r o m t h e m a c h i n e ’s m a n u f a c t u r e r e i t h e r t h e e q u i p m e n t la b o r r e q u ir e m e n ts m a y b e lo w e r w it h th e N C m a c h in e t o m a k e p r o g r a m s in - h o u s e o r th e s o f t w a r e . b e c a u s e , in s o m e c a s e s , t h e o p e r a t o r p e r f o r m s o t h e r C o m p u t e r s t i t c h i n g in v a m p i n g r e d u c e s u n it l a b o r r e q u ir e m e n ts a n d im p r o v e s th e q u a lity w o r k a f t e r t h e m a c h i n e is s e t in m o t i o n . o f th e p r o d u c t A n o p e r a t o r w it h lim ite d j o b e x p e r ie n c e c a n q u ic k ly th r o u g h g r e a te r a c c u r a c y a n d c o n s is te n c y . In c o n tr a s t, le a r n t o u s e t h e N C m a c h i n e . W h i l e m a i n t e n a n c e o f t h e o ld e r c o n v e n tio n a l p r o c e s s e s o f v a m p in g a re v e r y la N C m a c h i n e is n o t s i m p l e , a d i g i t a l r e a d o u t s c r e e n d o e s b o r i n t e n s i v e . I t is e s t i m a t e d in d ic a te th e s ite o f a n y o p e r a tio n a l p r o b le m . th a t c o m p u t e r s titc h in g u s e d f o r l o n g p r o d u c t i o n r u n s r e s u l t s in a p r o d u c t i v i t y O v e r th e n e x t 5 to 10 y e a r s, th e n u m b e r o f N C u p in c r e a s e o f at le a s t 2 5 p e r c e n t. H o w e v e r , t h e s e m a c h in e s p e r r o u g h i n g m a c h i n e s is e x p e c t e d t o i n c r e a s e s h a r p l y , a re n o t e ffic ie n t fo r s h o r t p r o d u c tio n ru n s b e c a u s e o f p a r tic u la r ly a m o n g la r g e r fir m s , fr o m th e s m a ll n u m b e r th e c o s ts in v o lv e d . c u r r e n t l y in o p e r a t i o n . S o m e d ilu tio n o f s k ill r e q u ir e m e n ts p e r m its s k ille d Forepart pulling and lasting machine with microprocessor control w o r k e r s to b e r e p la c e d b y s e m is k ille d w o r k e r s . In c e r t a in p la n t s , a m e c h a n i c w i t h a h i g h s c h o o l e d u c a t i o n p lu s s o m e a d d it io n a l m a t h e m a tic s c a n q u a lify fo r th e T h is r e c e n t ly in tr o d u c e d m a c h in e a ss u r e s p r e c is e la s t p r o g r a m m in g p o s it io n a fte r 2 -3 m o n t h s o f in s tr u c tio n . i n g f o r t h e p r o c e s s o f s t r e t c h i n g t h e u p p e r o v e r t h e la s t M e c h a n i c s w h o m a i n t a in t h e m a c h i n e s r e q u i r e o n l y a a n d c e m e n t in g it to a n i n s o l e . In a d d it io n to a u t o m a t ic m o d e s t k n o w le d g e o f e le c tr o n ic s . S o m e m a c h in e s c o n s i z e d e t e r m i n a t i o n a n d p o s i t i o n i n g , it is p o s s i b l e t o a d ta in ju s t r a p id ly t o v a r io u s s h o e s t y le s c o n s t r u c t e d w it h d if b u ilt-in sy ste m s th a t d ia g n o s e m ost o p e r a tio n a l f e r e n t m a t e r ia l s . p r o b le m s . T h e m a c h in e c a n b e p r o g r a m m e d C o m p u te r -b a s e d m a c h in e s fo r fu n c t io n a l a n d f a n c y to e lim in a te th e s t i t c h i n g a r e f o u n d in f i r m s o f a ll s i z e s . I n c r e a s e d u s e n e e d fo r m a n u a l a d ju s tm e n ts , a n d th is g r e a tly im p r o v e s is e x p e c t e d in t h e n e x t 5 t o 10 y e a r s a s n e w m a c h i n e s t h e e f f i c i e n c y o f t h e l a s t i n g o p e r a t i o n . W h e n a s h i f t is are d e v e lo p e d w ith im p r o v e d c a p a b ilit y and m a d e f r o m o n e s h o e la s t t o a n o t h e r , d o w n t i m e is r e s titc h d u c e d b e c a u s e th e m a n y m a c h in e c h a n g e s r e q u ir e d c a n q u a lity . b e r e a d ily a c c o m p lis h e d b y th e c o m p u t e r p r o g r a m . Numerically controlled upper roughing machine U n i t la b o r a n d s k i l l r e q u i r e m e n t s o f o p e r a t o r s a r e g r e a tly r e d u c e d T h e p r o c e s s o f r o u g h in g c o n s is ts o f s c o u r in g th e m a r w ith th e a u to m a tic la s tin g m a c h in e . g in a r e a o f th e fitte d s h o e u p p e r w it h a r o u g h b r u sh A c c o r d in g to o n e m a c h in e m a n u fa c tu r e r , a r e d u c tio n (u s u a lly w ir e ) to p r o v id e a g o o d b a s e to w h ic h c e m e n t in u n it l a b o r r e q u i r e m e n t s o f n e a r l y 5 0 p e r c e n t is p o s can s till m o s t c o m m o n s ib le w h e n th e o p e r a t o r o f th e a u t o m a t ic la s tin g m a m e t h o d ( f o r o v e r 9 0 p e r c e n t o f o u t p u t ) , is m a n u a l , w i t h c h in e a ls o t e n d s o t h e r t y p e s o f la s t in g m a c h i n e s . M o r e ad here. T h e tr a d itio n a l, a n d r e l i a n c e o n t h e o p e r a t o r ’s h a n d - e y e c o o r d i n a t i o n . A n o v e r , th e r e q u ir e d s k i ll o f p r o g r a m m in g f o r th is m a c h in e o t h e r m e t h o d u s e d is o n e in w h i c h t h e s h a p e o f a s h o e c a n b e m a ste r e d is f o r m e d o n a m e t a l t e m p l a t e a n d t h e u p p e r is r o u g h e d p e r s o n s w i t h e x p e r i e n c e in l a s t i n g . W h i l e m a i n t e n a n c e w ith a w ir e b r u sh th a t f o llo w s th e o u tlin e o f th e s h o e w o r k e r s g e n e r a l l y h a v e s k i l l s in t h e e l e c t r i c a l , p n e u m a te m p la te . tic , a n d h y d r a u lic fie ld s , t h e y a ls o n e e d s o m e k n o w l a fte r a b o u t 1 w e e k ’s i n s t r u c t i o n b y e d g e o f e le c t r o n ic s to s e r v ic e th e m a c h in e . A T h e n e w e s t te c h n o lo g y in v o lv e s th e u se o f an N C te c h n i m a c h i n e . T h e s h a p e o f t h e b o t t o m o f t h e s h o e is “ d i g i c i a n e m p l o y e d b y t h e m a c h i n e ’s m a n u f a c t u r e r is a v a i l t iz e d ,” w h ic h in v o lv e s s e c u r in g s o m e 2 0 p o in ts c o r r e a b le fo r in s tr u c tio n d u r in g t h e 1 o r 2 w e e k s f o l l o w i n g s p o n d i n g t o t h e s h a p e o f t h e s h o e ’s b o t t o m . T h e N C th e a c q u is itio n a n d in s ta lla tio n o f th e la s tin g m a c h in e . m a c h in e c a n a u to m a tic a lly m a k e th e c a lc u la tio n s to d i T h i s m i c r o p r o c e s s o r - c o n t r o l l e d m a c h i n e is r e l a t i v e l y r e c t a w i r e b r u s h in t h e r o u g h i n g o f r i g h t a n d l e f t s h o e s c o s t l y b u t is l i k e l y t o b e c o n s i d e r e d c o s t e f f e c t i v e b y in a ll s h o e s i z e s . T h e N C m a c h i n e h a s a d v a n t a g e s o v e r la r g e a n d 20 m e d iu m -s iz e d fir m s th a t e x p e c t t o r e m a in ily “ s p o ts ” th e s o le s to th e u p p ers. In th e n e w e r s o le c o m p e t it i v e w it h fo r e ig n im p o r ts d u r in g th e n e x t 5 to 10 y ears. Som e s m a ll fir m s m ay a ls o p u rch ase la y in g p r e s s e s , th e o p e r a to r u s e s a s e lf-a d ju s tin g p a d th e box m a c h in e s. th a t a u to m a tic a lly d e te r m in e s th e c o n to u r of a s h o e ’s b o t t o m a n d , a l s o , a t o e a n d h e e l r e s t t h a t a u t o Injection molding machine with microprocessor control m a t ic a lly a d ju s ts fo r h e e l h e ig h t t o a s s u r e th a t t h e la s te d s h o e is h e l d in a n a c c u r a t e p o s i t i o n . A f t e r l o a d i n g a n d T h e in j e c tio n m o ld in g m a c h in e a u to m a tic a lly m o ld s in i t i a l a d j u s t m e n t , t h e o p e r a t o r t h e n s t a r t s a h i g h - p r e s a s h o e b o tt o m fr o m th e r m o p la s tic o r p o ly u r e t h a n e m a su re c y c le to se c u r e a p e r m a n e n t a tta c h m e n t o f th e s o le t e r i a l t o t h e u p p e r p a r t o f t h e s h o e . I t is c o n s i d e r a b l y to th e sh o e b o tto m . le s s la b o r in t e n s iv e th a n th e m a jo r a lt e r n a tiv e p r o c e s s e s W h i l e u n it l a b o r r e q u i r e m e n t s a r e n o t r e d u c e d s i g o f c u ttin g , s t itc h in g o r c e m e n t in g , a n d a s s o c ia te d in te r n i f i c a n t l y b y t h i s m a c h i n e , l e s s o p e r a t o r s k i l l is r e q u i r e d m e d i a r y s t e p s . T h e q u a l i t y o f o u t p u t is a l s o h i g h e r w i t h a n d q u a l i t y o f o u t p u t is i m p r o v e d . O n a t r a d i t i o n a l m a in j e c tio n m o ld in g b e c a u s e o f th e c o n s id e r a b le u n ifo r m c h in e la c k in g th e a u to m a tic a d ju s tm e n ts , a n o p e r a to r i t y o f t h e u n it s p r o d u c e d . M o r e t h a n 2 0 p e r c e n t o f d o m a y b r e a k a la s t w h e n h i g h p r e s s u r e is a p p l i e d o r f a il m e s tic a lly p r o d u c e d s h o e s h a v e s o le s m a d e b y in je c tio n t o s e c u r e p r e c i s e a d h e s i o n o f t h e s h o e ’s p a r t s . m o ld in g . C u r r e n t l y , a b o u t 15 p e r c e n t o f t h e s h o e m a n u f a c t u r e r s T h e m a c h in e s c o n s is t o f r o ta r y m o ld s ta tio n s , w it h a h a v e s o le la y in g p r e s s e s w it h a u to m a tic c o n tr o ls . C o n 1 2 - s t a t i o n m a c h i n e e q u i p p e d t o h a n d l e 6 p a ir s o f s h o e s t i n u e d d i f f u s i o n is l i k e l y d u r i n g t h e n e x t 5 y e a r s . p e r c y c l e . O n th e m o s t a d v a n c e d m a c h in e s — m ic r o p r o c e s s o r c o n t r o l le d a n d , v e r y r e c e n t l y , c o m p u t e r - c o n t r o l le d — a ll th e Output and Productivity Outlook m a c h in e ’s p a r a m e te r s ( e . g . , te m p e r a tu r e ) c a n b e s e t o n a c o n t r o l c a b in e t th a t h a s a v is u a l d is p la y u n it . N u m e r o u s a u t o m a t ic fe a tu r e s, d ia g n o s is , r a n g in g fr o m a r e a v a il a b le o n m i x in g m a t e r ia ls to s o m e m a c h in e s . Output fa u lt In M oreover, 1984, to ta l fo o t w e a r p r o d u c tio n w a s a b o u t 3 0 0 m i l l i o n p a ir s , t h e s m a l l e s t q u a n t i t y s i n c e t h e e a r l y 1 9 3 0 ’s. r e c e n tly d e v e lo p e d p o ly u r e t h a n e c o m p o u n d s c a n b e p r o c e s s F rom e d m u c h f a s te r th a n th e u s u a l p o ly u r e t h a n e c o m p o u n d . 1 9 7 0 to 1 9 8 4 , o u tp u t d e c lin e d a t a n a v e r a g e a n L a b o r r e q u ir e m e n ts fo r in j e c tio n m o ld in g a r e r e la n u a l r a t e o f 3 .8 p e r c e n t , c o n s i d e r a b l y g r e a t e r t h a n t h e t i v e ly l o w , a n d o n ly m o d e s t s k ills a r e r e q u ir e d t o o p r a t e o f d e c l i n e ( 0 .3 p e r c e n t ) in t h e 1 9 6 0 ’s. D e c l i n e s t o o k e r a te th e m a c h in e s. T w o o p e r a to r s w ith o n ly s o m e m e p l a c e in a l l y e a r s o f t h e p e r i o d , w i t h t h e e x c e p t i o n o f c h a n ic a l e x p e r ie n c e a re u se d o n a m a c h in e w it h 1 9 7 6 a n d 1 9 7 8 ( c h a r t 6 ). B y 1 9 8 4 , o u tp u t w a s o n ly a b o u t 12 o r h a l f t h e l e v e l in 1 9 6 0 . 18 s t a t i o n s t o l o a d , u n l o a d , a n d p e r i o d i c a l l y e x a m i n e P r o d u c t i o n d e c l i n e d c o n s i s t e n t l y f o r b o t h w o m e n ’s u n it s o f p r o d u c t i o n s o a s t o m i n i m i z e t h e n u m b e r o f d e f e c t i v e p a r t s a r i s i n g f r o m a n o c c a s i o n a l e r r o r in t h e a n d m e n ’s s h o e s , w h i c h p r o c e s s . T h e o p tio n a l fe a tu r e o f a u to m a tic lo a d in g fu r t h r e e - f i f t h s o f a l l f o o t w e a r p r o d u c e d . W o m e n ’s s h o e s t o g e t h e r a c c o u n t fo r a lm o s t t h e r e l i m i n a t e s la b o r r e q u i r e m e n t s . L o a d i n g a n d u n l o a d d e c lin e d 55 p e r c e n t b e t w e e n 1 9 7 0 a n d 1 9 8 4 , w h ile th e i n g c a n b e c a r r i e d o u t b y r o b o t s o n a t l e a s t o n e k in d d e c l i n e f o r m e n ’s s h o e s w a s n e a r l y 4 0 p e r c e n t . E v e n o f c o m p u t e r iz e d m a c h in e . s h a r p e r d e c l i n e s t o o k p l a c e f o r y o u t h ’s a n d b o y s ’ s h o e s U s e o f m ic r o p r o c e s s o r - c o n tr o lle d m o ld in g m a c h in e s , a n d m i s s e s ’ a n d c h i l d r e n ’s s h o e s , w h i c h , t o g e t h e r , d e p r im a r ily b y la r g e a n d m e d iu m - s iz e s h o e m a n u f a c tu r c lin e d to le s s th a n 9 p e r c e n t o f th e fo o t w e a r p r o d u c e d in g f i r m s , is e x p e c t e d to in c r e a s e m o d e r a t e ly . C u r r e n tly , in l e s s t h a n 15 p e r c e n t o f a ll i n j e c t i o n m o l d i n g m a c h i n e s a n d b a b i e s ’ s h o e s a n d h o u s e s l ip p e r s ; t h e s e t w o g r o u p s c o n ta in th e s e t e c h n o lo g ie s , b u t a t le a s t s o m e o f th e n u t o g e t h e r a c c o u n t e d f o r a b o u t 2 6 p e r c e n t o f a ll f o o t w e a r 1 9 8 4 . S u b s t a n t ia l d e c l i n e s a l s o o c c u r r e d in i n f a n t s ’ in i m p o r t i n g s h o e u p p e r s a r e p r o d u c e d in 1 9 8 4 . O n l y a m i s c e l l a n e o u s p r o d u c t c l a s s lik e ly t o a c q u ir e th e m a c h in e s . T h e r e m a in in g fir m s w ill w h ic h in c lu d e s a th le tic s h o e s e x h ib ite d g r o w t h b e t w e e n m e r o u s fir m s in v o l v e d c o n tin u e , fo r at le a s t th e n e x t 5 y e a r s, to u se m a c h in e s 1 9 7 0 a n d 19 8 4 ; its s h a r e r o s e s t e a d ily t o a b o u t 7 p e r c e n t th a t are c o n tr o lle d e le c tr ic a l o f t h e t o t a l . A s o - c a l l e d “ a t h l e i s u r e ” s h o e t h a t is c l a s c o n t r o ls w h ic h r e q u ir e r e g u la r m a in te n a n c e b y a s k ille d s i f i e d in t h i s i n d u s t r y is m a n u f a c t u r e d w i t h l e a t h e r u p e le c tr ic ia n a n d a h y d r a u lic te c h n ic ia n . p e r s , a m o ld e d o u t e r s o le , a n d s o f t in n e r p a d d in g . T h is Sole laying press b o t h y o u n g p e r s o n s a n d a d u lt s . by r a th e r c u m b e r s o m e s h o e m a y c o n tin u e to r e c e iv e g r o w in g a c c e p ta n c e b y W h ile c e m e n t in g a s o le to th e u p p e r p a rt o f a s h o e W h ile d o m e s tic o u tp u t h a s d r o p p e d sh a r p ly o v e r th e is s t i l l la b o r i n t e n s i v e , a u t o m a t i c a d j u s t m e n t s o n s o m e y e a r s , t o t a l c o n s u m p t i o n h a s , in f a c t , r is e n . P e r c a p i t a s o le la y in g p r e s s e s s u b s ta n tia lly im p r o v e th e u n ifo r m c o n s u m p t i o n , h o w e v e r , h a s b e e n r e l a t i v e l y s t a b le : 4 . 3 0 it y o f p r o d u c tio n . A n o p e r a to r , w h o r e c e iv e s th e u p p a ir s in 1 9 8 4 , t h e f i r s t t i m e t h e r a t i o w a s a b o v e 4 p a ir s p e r s a n d s o le s w it h c e m e n t a lr e a d y a p p lie d t o th e m , s in c e 1 9 6 8 . I m p o r ts h a v e fille d th e g a p b e t w e e n o u tp u t u s e s h ea t to a n d c o n s u m p tio n . r e a c t iv a t e th e c e m e n t a n d th e n te m p o r a r 21 Chart 6. Output per employee hour and related data, footwear, 1970-84 Ratio scale (1977 = 100) Ratio scale (1977 = 100) 140 130 120 Output per employee hour 110 100 90 80 70 60 140 130 120 Output 110 100 90 80 70 60 140 130 120 Employee hours 110 100 90 80 70 60 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 22 The outlook for domestic production will be primarily a function of the industry’s effectiveness in competing with foreign producers. In addition, rubber and plastic footwear (SIC 302) is also likely to continue to affect nonrubber footwear output. Rubber and plastic foot wear—especially the footwear used widely by boys, girls, and many young adults for athletic and casual oc casions—has been considered “directly competitive” with nonathletic footwear by the U.S. International Trade Commission.5 1970-84, as output and employee hours fell at almost the same rate. Over the period, productivity increased at an average annual rate of 0.2 percent; output and employee hours fell 3.8 and 4.0 percent, respectively, annually. In the period 1980-84, productivity advanced at an average annual rate of 1.4 percent. This recent produc tivity increase was associated with a decline in output of 5.4 percent, but a sharper fall (6.7 percent) in em ployee hours. The decline in hours largely reflected the diffusion of new technology and the closing of older plants. In 1984, productivity was near its levels in 1975 and 1976, while output and hours were at their lowest points since 1947 (earliest available data). Productivity reached its postwar peak in 1982, as hours dropped almost 12 percent in that year. The industry’s slight productivity increase during 1970-84 followed a period of similar growth in the 1960’s (an annual average of 0.4 percent). In those two pe riods, the trends in output and employee hours differed markedly. Whereas output and employee hours fell 1.0 percent or less during 1960-70, both output and hours declined more than three times as rapidly during 1970-84. Imports In contrast to the trend in domestic production, im ports grew substantially in all but 3 years during 197084. Consequently, import penetration increased almost steadily over the 14-year period. The import penetra tion ratio more than doubled, from 30 percent in 1970 to 63 percent in 1983 to an estimated 72 percent in 1984 (quantity basis). Since most footwear imports are still relatively low priced, the import penetration ratio is considerably lower on a dollar-value basis than on a quanti ty basis. The dollar-value ratio was 45 percent in 1983 (latest available figure). Imports have nearly doubled since the Orderly Mar keting Agreements with Taiwan and South Korea, the two largest exporters to the United States, expired in June 1981. Over 725 million pairs of shoes and house slippers were imported in 1984, 25 percent higher than the total of only a year before. Exports of nonrubber footwear are only a small frac tion of domestic production. They totaled only 8.9 mil lion pairs in 1984, or about 3 percent of domestic shipments. As is evident from the import penetration data, many domestic shoe manufacturers have been unable to com pete with foreign producers. To improve their position, some domestic manufacturers have themselves been import ing shoes or the labor-intensive shoe uppers.6 In 1985, the United States International Trade Com mission (ITC) determined that imports were a substan tial cause of serious injury to the industry and recom mended that the President impose quantitative restric tions for a 5-year period on imported footwear valued at more than $2.50 by the U.S. Customs Service.7 The President did not accept the recommendation of the ITC. Investment Capital expenditures Productivity Productivity increased very slightly in the period 5 U nited States International Trade Com m ission, Nonrubber Foot wear, U S IT C Publication 1545, July 1984, pp. 7-8. 6“ The company . . . expects that its importation o f shoe uppers will favorably impact operating margins . . . . , ” from Suave Shoe Corporation Report to the Shareholders for the Third Quarter Ended June 30, 1985. ’ U nited States International Trade Com m ission, Nonrubber Foot 8Data deflated for price changes by the U.S. Department o f Com merce, Office o f Business Analysis. wear, U S IT C Publication 1717, July 1985, pp. 1-2. Real capital expenditures (in constant dollars)8by the footwear industry in 1982 (latest data) were only 59 percent of the peak in 1968, although in current dollars they were 47 percent higher. In 1981, however, real outlays approached the peak. Over the period 1970-82, real outlays (1972 dollars) averaged $34 million annu ally, almost equal to the annual outlays in 1960-70. However, in view of the widespread industry prac tice of renting equipment, data on capital expenditures do not include all of the industry’s outlays for new ma chinery. Census data for 1982 indicate that rental pay ments for machinery and equipment were more than two-thirds as large as new capital expenditures for ma chinery and equipment. In manufacturing as a whole, rental payments were only 13 percent as large as new capital expenditures in 1981 (latest data). The outlook for growth in capital expenditures in the years ahead is uncertain. On the one hand, investment is likely to receive considerable emphasis by major manufacturers interested in capital-intensive equipment to reduce unit labor cost and remain competitive. On the other hand, the high cost of new equipment for many processes, coupled with growing imports, dis courages long-term investment. 23 Research and development slightly since 1970 following a considerably more rapid rate of increase in the previous decade. Research and development (R&D) in this industry is generally limited to the suppliers of machinery and the largest shoe manufacturers. Even several of the larger firms do not engage in R&D. Other firms reported that their R&D includes marketing surveys and product testing.9 The Footwear Industries of America (FIA), an asso ciation of shoe manufacturers, is promoting R&D. The FIA has been conducting seminars in which the ma chine suppliers and material suppliers discuss with foot wear manufacturers the improvements needed in key processes. Manufacturers can make suggestions that may be incorporated in new machinery during these regional seminars. Traditionally, suppliers of machinery have contacted shoe manufacturers individually, who then had relatively little participation in the R&D process. Occupations According to a recent Department of Labor survey," the distribution of the industry’s production and related workers by level of skill was as follows: Percent Highly skilled ............................................................................ Skilled ......................................................................................... Sem iskilled.................................................................................. U n sk ille d ..................................................................................... 10.1 33.3 40.6 16.0 As is evident from the table, more than 2 out of 5 workers are skilled or highly skilled. Their jobs are as sociated with the continuing high utilization of nonautomatic/noncomputer-controlled machines. Where such machines predominate, e.g., in the fitting and stitch ing and lasting/bottoming operations, almost half of the workers are skilled or highly skilled. In contrast, of the workers who are in occupations utilizing automatic/computer-controlled machines, only 22 percent are skilled or highly skilled. Cutting operations, which are among the least auto mated of the footwear operations, have the highest pro portion of skilled workers: 21 percent are highly skilled and 42 percent are skilled. Employment is expected to decrease in each of the major occupational groups between 1984 and 1995, ac cording to BLS. The smallest proportional declines are anticipated for precision production occupations and the engineering and technician occupations—20 and 28 percent, respectively. By 1995, precision production workers are expected to account for 22 percent of all employees, up from 18 percent in 1984, while the small engineering and technician group will still represent only about 1 percent of all footwear employees. The largest projected declines (about 40 percent) from 1984 to 1995 are expected to take place in machine set ter, setup operator, and tender occupations; in admin istrative support occupations, including clerical; and for blue-collar worker supervisors. While machine setters, setup operators, and tenders—by far the largest single occupational group—will decline in relative impor tance, they will still account for more than one-third of the industry’s employment in 1995. Employment and Occupational Trends Employment In 1985, an average of 99,900 persons were working in footwear manufacturing, the smallest number in any year since 1939 (earliest data available). In the period 1970-85, employment declined rapidly, at an average annual rate of 4.0 percent (chart 7). With the exception of 1976, 1978, and 1981, employment fell each year dur ing the 15-year period. By 1985, employment was only 47 percent of the 1970 level (212,700), and 41 percent of the 1960 level (242,600). The rate of decline was considerably faster in the 1970’s and through the first half of the 1980’s than in the 1950’s and 1960’s. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, on the basis of its moderate-growth projection for the economy, projects a continuation of the sharp employment decline in foot wear, at a rate of 2.8 percent annually from 1985 to 1995.1 On the basis of this projection, employment in 0 1995 would be 25 percent lower than in 1985. Production worker employment has remained high relative to total employment, as the industry continues to be highly labor intensive. The ratio of production workers to all footwear employees was 85 percent in 1985, or only 2 percentage points below the 1970 fig ure. The comparable ratio in all manufacturing in 1985 was about 68 percent. The proportion of women in the footwear industry’s work force was 65 percent in 1985, or double the av erage for all manufacturing industries. It has risen Adjustment of workers to technological change 9 U nited States International Trade Com m ission, Nonrubber Foot Programs to protect workers from the adverse affects of changes in machinery and methods may be incorpo rated into union contracts or they may be informal ar rangements between workers and management. In gen- wear, U S IT C Publication 1717, July 1985, p. A-63. 10B L S projections for industry em ploym ent in 1995 are based on three alternative versions o f econ om ic grow th. For details on as sum ptions and m eth od ology used to d evelop these projections, see the Monthly Labor Review, November 1985. " U .S . D epartm ent o f Labor, Nonrubber Footwear, Public Version o f Report to the President, Investigation N o. T A -224-55, under Sec. 224 o f Trade A c t o f 1974, July 1985, pp. 15-17. 24 Chart 7. Employment in footwear, 1970-85, and projections, 1985-951 Employees (thousands) Employees (thousands) 1 Least squares trends method for historical data; compound interest method for projections. 2 See text footnote 10. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 25 tempt to assist the worker in securing and adapting to another position. If an employee’s position is terminated, but an opening for the same position is available in an other plant, the employee can transfer with seniority intact. When a job is discontinued and replaced in whole or in part by another operation, displaced employees have first claim to the new operation, or they may be placed on a preferential employment list. Laid-off workers may be on a preferential employment list for a maximum of 18 months for jobs that are filled on the basis of seniority. In at least one major contract, the company agrees not to open and operate a new plant prior to consider ing the feasibility of increasing production at its exist ing plant through second and third work shifts. This can insure greater stability of employment at the plant until the need for greater output from a new plant has been firmly established. Some provisions deal with layoffs that result from plant shutdowns. Representative agreements provide severance pay of $30 per year of continuous service, with a minimum of 15 and a maximum of 30 years ($450 to $900). In recent years, a bargaining provision in con tracts has enabled vested employees who are displaced by plant closure and are unable to secure employment with the company to apply for reduced pensions if they are at least 55 years of age. Footwear workers who lose their jobs or whose hours are reduced may have recourse to a Federal program of assistance if the Office of Trade Adjustment Assist ance of the Department of Labor determines that in creased imports contributed importantly to job loss or earnings reduction. Cash allowances were paid to over 64,800 workers between April 1975 and August 31, 1985. Over 6,250 of the workers who received allow ances also were enrolled in training programs. In September 1985, the President requested that the Secretary of Labor provide additional financial assist ance for the dislocated workers in lieu of imposing re strictions on imports. The assistance is intended to aid about 2,300 dislocated workers to find jobs through job search, retraining, and relocation. eral, such programs are more prevalent and detailed in formal contracts. Both formal and informal labor-man agement arrangements are influenced by the state of the economy and, in particular, the condition of the in dustry in which collective bargaining takes place. Formal labor-management agreements cover between 25 and 50 percent of the workers in this industry. The unions are the Amalgamated Clothing and Textile Workers,1 The United Food and Commercial 2 Workers13—the two major unions—and the United Rubber, Cork, Linoleum and Plastics Workers of America. All three are members of the AFL-CIO. The independent unions in clude the Brotherhood of Shoe and Allied Craftsmen and the International Brotherhood of Teamsters. Plantwide seniority, which prevails in these la bor-management agreements, provides a measure of job security when technological change takes place. In gen eral, seniority rights apply to layoff, recall, job bidding, wage rates, and other similar situations. Even though training and retraining (often associated with techno logical change) are usually not detailed in contracts, seniority is usually a pertinent consideration when train ing or retraining is offered. Requirements for advance notice of technological change are typically absent from bargaining contracts in this industry. Union shop stewards generally learn about such changes by being informed of new and al tered job requirements associated with a new machine or a new method. This takes place when wage classi fications and rates on new and changed operations are established by the company. The union can question changes in earnings through the grievance procedure, including any failure of operators to achieve their for mer average earnings. When an employee is displaced as a result of a change in operations or method of manufacture, some agree ments require the union and company to confer and at 1 The U nited Sh oe W orkers o f A m erica (A F L -C IO ) m erged with 2 this union on M arch 5, 1979. 1 T he Boot and Sh oe W orkers’ Union (A F L -C IO ) m erged w ith this 3 union on Septem ber 1, 1977. S E LE C T E D R E FE R E N C E S F o otw ear Industries o f A m erica (Cooperator) and J.B. Kaplan and Com pany, Inc. (Consultant). Survey of the State of the Art in Foot U .S. Departm ent o f Labor. Nonrubber Footwear, Public V ersion o f R eport to the President, Investigation N o . T A -224-55, U nder S ec tion 224 o f the Trade A c t o f 1974, July 1985. wear Manufacturing and Identification of Priorities and Mechanisms to Accelerate the Development and Application o f Advanced Technol ogy in the U.S. Footwear Manufacturing Industry. T w o volum es. U .S. G eneral A ccou n tin g O ffice. The U.S. Footwear Industries' Abil ity to Meet Military Mobilization Needs, G A O /N S IA D -8 5 -3 5 , Janu ary 3, 1985. U nder a g ra n t/coop erative agreem ent from the Departm ent o f C om m erce, April 1983. F ootw ear Industry Team . Footwear Industry Revitalization Program, First Annual Progress Report. U .S. D epartm ent o f C om m erce, Sep tember 1978. United States International Trade Com m ission. Nonrubber Footwear, U S IT C Publication 1545, July 1984. U .S. Departm ent o f Labor, Bureau o f Labor Statistics. Industry Wage Survey. Men's and Women's Footwear, April 1980, Bulletin 2118 (1982). U nited States International Trade Com m ission. Nonrubber Footwear, U S IT C Publication 1717, July 1985. 26 Chapter 3. Hydraulic Cement Summary applicable in plants adopting laborsaving innovations. Training has been extensive in some plants—particu larly when computer process control systems have been introduced. The hydraulic cement industry (SIC 3241) consists of about 146 plants which produce portland, masonry, and other types of hydraulic cement that are essential to the construction industry. Innovations in technology to manufacture hydraulic cement are being introduced in all major production steps, from the initial stages of preparing limestone and other raw materials obtained from quarries to the final tasks of grinding clinker into finished cement and stor ing it for shipment. Major technologies being adopted include suspension preheaters and precalcining furnaces, which greatly increase kiln capacity and fuel efficiency; roller mills, which combine the separate steps of dry ing, crushing, and grinding of raw materials prior to burning in the kiln; and advanced computer process control and instrumentation systems that regulate kiln operations and other key production tasks. Major in centives to the introduction of these innovations and other changes discussed in this report include meeting the requirements of environmental regulations, lower ing energy costs, and reducing labor and other expenses to become more competitive with domestic and foreign suppliers of cement. Employment in the cement industry totaled 23,400 workers in 1985, down by 30 percent from 1970. The sharpest declines were between 1978 and 1985—during which time the number of employees declined at an average annual rate of 5.1 percent. The reduction in the number of cement plants and the decline in output associated with periods of slack demand for cement have been the major factors in lower levels of employ ment since 1970. New technology has brought about changes in some key occupations at plants undergoing extensive mod ernization, with control room operator and maintenance occupations increasing in complexity and relative im portance and semiskilled operative and laborer positions generally declining. The introduction of computer proc ess control systems and the use of high-capacity, sin gle-kiln systems featuring preheating and precalcining towers have centralized and combined operations and changed the mix of occupations. The majority of the work force in the cement indus try is covered by collective bargaining agreements, and provisions relating to seniority, advance notice of change, training, and reassignment of workers have been Structure of the Industry The output of the hydraulic cement industry is es sential for a wide range of construction activities. Thus, demand for the industry’s products is closely related to changes in the volume and mix of construction activi ties. Portland cement accounts for about 95 percent of total production, and masonry cement makes up most of the balance. In terms of end-use, residential construc tion typically consumes about one-third of the total out put of portland cement, and commercial construction about 20 percent. In 1984, 141 plants turned out portland cement (U.S. Bureau of Mines data); nearly one-half of the total vol ume of shipments went to States in the South, where construction activity has been strong. Two out of three plants also produced masonry cement—a non-portland type of hydraulic cement. Nearly 70 percent of the out put of masonry cement also was shipped to this area. About five plants produced masonry and other types of hydraulic cement exclusively. The cement industry ranks among the leading indus tries in consumption of energy, which accounts for be tween 35 and 65 percent of the total cost of cement, depending upon the age and type of plant. Thus, capi tal expenditures for technologies to reduce energy con sumption are substantial. The industry also allocates considerable funds for new equipment and processes to comply with regulations on surface mining and air and water pollution. Imports of hydraulic cement have been increasing sharply and in 1985 amounted to about 14 million tons, 5 times greater than in 1982.' The cement industry had 23,400 employees in 1985, 78 percent of whom were production workers. A sig nificant number of workers are located in the leading producer States of Texas, California, and Pennsylvania. 'U .S . Departm ent o f Com m erce, International Trade Adm inistra tion, 1986 U.S. Industrial Outlook. See section on cem ent industry (pp. 2-7) prepared by C. B. Pitcher, Office o f Basic Industries. 27 Technology in the 1980’s Improved kiln technology Substantial improvements in technology related to the kiln operation are underway. In the kiln, the blend of limestone and other material is subjected to high temperatures as it passes through a rotating and slightly inclined cylindrical steel shell. In this process, the raw material is changed chemically by the high tempera ture, fusing into clinker—a hard substance which sub sequently is cooled and ground into finished cement. Modern cement kilns have greater capacity than ear lier models, and kilns presently being installed utilize high-capacity, preheater/precalciner dry process tech nologies, discussed below, which are substantially more energy efficient.2 According to the U.S. Bureau of Mines, average kiln capacity in the United States in creased by 90 percent between 1970 and 1984.3 As an example, the Portland Cement Association reports that the 4 largest kilns constructed since 1980 have the same capacity as the 57 smallest kilns.4 Moreover, the asso ciation reports that the proportion of total cement ca pacity using the dry process has risen to about twothirds of the total, with further gains anticipated. Preheater and precalciner systems are being used in a growing number of cement plants to reduce costs in the kiln operation. In 1984, plants with 36 percent of total U.S. capacity used preheaters, and 19 percent used precalciners. All the precalciners and 94 percent of the preheaters have been added since 1971.5 Although fur ther diffusion of these technologies is anticipated, the United States lags behind some countries, including Ja pan, where precalciners are associated with about 60 percent of total kiln capacity. The major incentive to introducing preheater and precalciner technology is to reduce energy costs. How ever, labor requirements for operators and other staff also are lowered by the greater capacity of the new production equipment. In one plant which modernized extensively, including the use of preheater and precal ciner technology, one short rotary kiln in a new sec tion of the plant has twice the capacity of three con ventional kilns that were closed down. In the new kiln, energy requirements per ton of cement are lower by one-third. The trend to constructing kilns of greater length has The manufacture of portland cement requires large and powerful equipment to convert limestone and lesser quantities of other materials to cement through a series of physical and chemical processes. The four basic steps in the manufacture of portland cement are: Quarrying and crushing limestone and other raw materials; grind ing and homogenizing the raw materials; converting the raw materials to clinker in a rotary kiln and associated cooler; and grinding the clinker with additives to pro duce cement ready for shipment. The most important new technologies being intro duced in modern cement plants include preheating and precalcining kiln systems, which reduce processing time and fuel consumption, thereby increasing kiln capacity and fuel efficiency; roller mills, which combine the for merly separate steps of drying, crushing, and grinding of raw material prior to burning in the kiln; air-swept ball mills that perform raw grinding with greatly in creased efficiency; and advanced computer process con trol systems that monitor and control key production steps throughout the plant from a central location. The use of more powerful equipment to crush rock in quarry operations, and improvements being incorporated in ball mills used in finish grinding also are significant in novations. The cement industry is subject to strict en vironmental regulations, and a major incentive to the adoption of new technology is to improve air quality to conform to required standards. Although the major cost associated with the produc tion of portland cement is for energy, the new tech nologies discussed in this section nonetheless have had an impact on employees in the cement industry. In mod ern cement plants that feature computers, programma ble controllers, and central control rooms incorporat ing closed-circuit TV, a single operator and a helper can control the major production units—a significant saving in labor compared to older plants. In one of the most advanced new facilities, for example, output of cement per employee more than doubled after a major modernization. These savings suggest that broad indus try adoption of these innovations could have an impact on production and the work force. Moreover, the du ties and staffing requirements of kiln operators, main tenance workers, and other employees in cement plants have changed as computer process control and other innovations have been adopted. Thus, training programs to prepare employees to operate new equipment, de scribed later, are an important feature of modernization programs. In this section and in table 3, innovations in cement technology are described, their impact on productivity and employment is examined, and prospects for further adoption in the industry are assessed. 2 Cem ent kilns are o f tw o basic types, w et process and dry process, depending on w hether the raw material being fed into the kiln is a slurry or a dry pow der. T he trend is to a greater use o f dry process kilns because they can utilize the new preheater and precalciner tech nologies, w h ich consum e up to 50 percent less energy per ton o f c e ment than the w et process kiln system s. T his n ew tech n olo g y cannot be applied to w et kiln systems. 3 Bureau o f M ines, Minerals Yearbook, 1970 and 1984 editions (U .S. Departm ent o f the Interior, 1972 and 1985). 4 Portland C em ent A ssociation, M arket and E con om ic Research D e partment, U.S. and Canadian Portland Cement Industry: Plant Infor mation Summary (Skokie, Illinois, 1983 and 1984 editions). 5 Ibid. 28 Table 3. Major technology changes in hydraulic cement Technology Description Labor implications Diffusion Improved kiln technology New-model kilns have greater capa Although the major purpose of in The use of preheater/precalciners is stalling preheater/precalciner kiln expected to increase through city and are more efficient than 1995. In 1984, plants with 36 older kilns. Suspension preheat systems is to save fuel, output ers and precalciner furnaces are per employee is higher in plants : percent of total U.S. cement capacity used preheaters and 19 which have introduced this tech being used in dry process kiln percent used precalciners. All of nology. In a representative instal systems to lower fuel costs and in- j lation, one short rotary kiln has the precalciners and 94 percent crease output. The preheater is a of the preheaters have been large tower adjacent to a short twice the capacity of an older adopted since 1971. rotary kiln and feeds into it. The facility— now closed— that had preheater uses hot exit gases three conventional kilns. from the kiln to suspend, heat, and partially calcine (remove car bon dioxide) the raw material as it descends through the tower, into the precalciner furnace, where nearly all the remaining carbon dioxide is removed, and through the kiln for conversion to clinker. Average kiln capacity increased by The kiln in systems which use pre 90 percent between 1970 and heaters and precalciner furnaces 1984, with further gains an is up to 50 percent shorter than ticipated over the next decade as conventional kilns, where these the proportion of dry process kilns functions are carried out inside using p re h e a te rs and p re the kiln during the first stages of processing. calciners continues to increase. Supplemental fuel for cement kilns Industrial waste solvents are being The major impact of supplemental Supplemental fuel systems have used as a supplemental fuel for been introduced primarily in wet fuel systems is an increase in the kiln operations. Liquid waste fuel duties of kiln operators and main process plants. Waste solvents re costs per Btu reportedly are be tenance employees, and the addi portedly make up between 15 and low those for coal and other con- j tional employment of laboratory 25 percent of total fuel require ventional fuels. A typical supple technicians. ments, with a higher substitution mental fuel installation consists of rate anticipated in the future. Thir storage tanks, tank trucks that teen plants— one-fifth of those supply these tanks, and systems j using the wet process— reportedly that deliver the liquid to the kiln, j were using, testing, or planning to where it is introduced simultane test liquid waste supplemental ously with conventional fuel. fuel systems. Improved grinding equipment R aw grinding. In new dry process plants, grinding of raw materials prior to the kiln operation is being accomplished by a single large roller mill or ball mill. Both mills have their economic advantages, and the type of raw material deter mines which mill is used. The roller mill used in the dry process stands upright and grinds by the action of large steel rolls. Hot kiln gases blown upward through the mill remove moisture during grind ing. Roller mills can process raw material with a higher moisture content than can single-unit airswept ball mills. However, airswept ball mills, which grind by the tumbling action of steel balls in a rotating cylinder, are not limited in the kinds of raw materials that may be processed. 29 Labor requirements in both roller Both single-unit roller mills and ball mills and modern ball mills are mills were incorporated in the last lower than in older model tube mills two new cement plants construct (both ball and rod). In the most ed in the United States and further advanced plants, roller and ball adoption of these technologies in mills of 6,000 horsepower are raw grinding is anticipated. controlled by a single operator in a central control station. These latest grinding technologies re portedly match the output of six 1,000-horsepower ball mills in use in the 1950’s which, in total, required two operators and two helpers to oversee. Table 3. Major technology changes in hydraulic cement—Continued Technology Improved grinding equipment—Continued Description Labor implications Finish grinding. Raw material con Productivity in finish grinding has verted to clinker in the kiln next undergoes final grinding. Improve ments in final grinding mills in clude the introduction of highefficiency air separators, larger grinding units that replace several sm aller ones, and improved v a ria b le -s p e e d drives for ball mills. increased because of high-effici ency air separators and other in novations. Finish grinding units in plants constructed in the 1980's, for example, reportedly turn out 140 tons per hour, more than double the output of the more labor-intensive grinding units in olace in the 1960's. Diffusion The outlook is for further tech nological improvements in grind ing mills to lower labor and electrical energy costs. In 1985, for example, 20 new high-efficiency separators were installed, with ad ditional units planned. Improved quarrying and crushing equipment The capacity of equipment to Productivity has increased as capa Innovations in quarrying and crush ing equipment are being adopted city of equipment has risen and load, haul, and crush quarried in modernized and newly con crew requirements have declined. limestone and other materials has structed cement plants. been increasing. Power shovels Front-end loaders of 10- to 13cubic-foot capacity manned by a have been replaced by larger ca single operator have replaced pacity front-end loaders, and the power shovels of 3- to 5-cubic-foot conveyances used to transport capacity which required two oper rock to the crushers also are larger. Impactor crushers which handle ators. Conveyances used to haul stone to crushers have tripled in large rocks at high volume also capacity, with a corresponding in are being adopted. crease in tons hauled per oper ator. More powerful crushers also have reduced labor requirements and achieved other savings. Cumputer process control and instrumentation Computers and advanced instru The installation of computer process control and related instrumentation mentation are being applied to all has eliminated some positions and phases of cement production. Typi created others. In one example, cally, the main computer and as the centralization of control in sociated instrumentation are lo strumentation associated with the cated in a central control room adoption of computer process with computer-controllers located control eliminated several cate in major production units. The gories of operator positions, and central computer monitors plant the subsequent adoption of com operations through this network of puter process control resulted in computer-controllers and under the creation of new positions of takes autom atic or operatorcomputer operator and technician. assisted changes in production Moreover, computer process con variables as required. In the most trol results in an increase in operator advanced installations, major pro monitoring of equipment and less cessing and material handling manual manipulation of control operations are under computer devices associated with control of control—from crushing through the the kiln and other equipment. storage of finished cement. Improvements in shipping operations Technological improvements in the shipping department include bag filling machines, automatic pal letizing, forklifts, and automation of recordkeeping. These develop ments have improved efficiency in the filling, handling, and loading of cement 30 Computer process control is an in tegral feature of many new plants and those undergoing moderniza tion. Moreover, computer control is being extended to a broader network of operations within the plant as technology has improved. Labor requirements have declined Improvements in shipping operations markedly in plants which have are being adopted in many new adopted these innovations. A fully and modernized plants to increase automated bag-packing line will efficiency in the handling of the 10 percent of output that is shipped lower labor requirements by more than two-thirds compared to con in bags. ventional, less mechanized facilities. by a single operator. The conveyances used to haul the stone to the crusher also have been increased in capacity, from about 25 tons to 80 tons, with a corresponding increase in tons hauled per operator. Accompanying the larger loading and hauling equip ment has been an increase in the size and capacity of crushers used to reduce the rock prior to grinding. Impactor crushers which have the capability to handle large rocks at high volume are being adopted in mod ernized and newly constructed cement plants. The size and type of crusher being used at a particular cement plant depends on the type of raw material being used to make the cement. been reversed by the diffusion of preheater and precalciner technology. The suspension preheater is an ad vance in dry process technology which consists of a series of funnels or cyclones in a vertical arrangement supported in a tower structure and emptying into a kiln. Raw material enters the top of the preheater and is sus pended briefly in each of the cyclone stages and heated by rising exhaust gases from the kiln and clinker cooler, undergoing partial calcining (removal of carbon diox ide) in the process. The precalciner is an additional fur nace located near the base of the preheater tower through which the preheated material passes before en tering the kiln. The combined preheater/precalciner technologies accomplish as much as 95 percent of the raw material calcination. Thus, kilns are shorter because they do not perform the calcining function. In some conversions to preheater/precalciner technology, kilns have been shortened to half their former lengths. The outlook is for kiln systems incorporating the precalcining preheaters to continue to replace the older long kilns. In addition to fuel savings, output per em ployee is higher in precalcining preheater kiln systems because of larger capacity equipment and com puter-aided central control. Innovations in grinding Following crushing, the raw materials used to make cement are further reduced in size by grinding to pre pare them for conversion to cement compounds in the kiln process. Technologies including roller mills and improved, high-capacity ball mills are increasing effi ciency in raw grinding. In new dry process plants, for example, raw grinding is accomplished by a single large roller mill or ball mill. Each type of mill has advantages and disadvantages, and the characteristics of the raw material determine which mill is used. Roller mills were introduced into the U.S. cement industry in the early 1970’s for raw material grinding, and they are being installed in a growing number of cement plants. The roller mill is a dry process technol ogy and differs from tube mills (ball mills and rod mills)—the conventional method of grinding used in both wet and dry plants. The roller mill stands upright and grinds by the action of large rolls which turn around a vertical axis at the bottom of the mill. Roller mills utilize hot kiln exhaust gases, blown upward through the mill to remove moisture during grinding. The roller mill can process raw materials with a higher moisture content than large, single-unit air-swept ball mills. How ever, air-swept ball mills, which grind by the tumbling action of steel balls in a rotating cylinder, are not lim ited in the kinds of raw material that may be processed. Both roller mills and modern ball mills are more pow erful and use less labor and electric power than the older model tube mills (both ball and rod). Modern roller and ball mills of 6,000 horsepower in the most advanced plants are controlled by a single operator at a central control station and match the output of six 1,000-horsepower ball mills in use prior to 1950 which, in total, would require two operators and two helpers to oversee. Supplemental fuel for cement kilns Industrial waste solvents are being used as a supple mental fuel for kiln operations, primarily in wet proc ess plants. Liquid waste fuel costs less per Btu than coal and other fuels, and its use has the potential to make the wet process more competitive with modern dry process plants. Waste solvents reportedly constitute be tween 15 and 25 percent of total fuel requirements in user plants, with a higher substitution rate anticipated in the future. A typical supplemental fuel installation consists of a series of storage tanks, tank trucks that supply these tanks, and piping and plumbing systems that deliver the liquids to the kiln where they are introduced simulta neously with the normal kiln fuel. According to the International Brotherhood of Boilermakers, the major union representing workers in the cement industry, supplemental fuel systems have not adversely affected workers. The major impact has been an increase in the duties of kiln operators and maintenance employees, and additional employment to attend the systems—primarily in the area of laboratory analysis. Quarrying and crushing Innovations in the loading, hauling, and crushing of quarried limestone and other materials used as raw ma terial for cement have increased productivity of equip ment operators. Power shovels of 3- to 5-cubic-foot ca pacity manned by two operators have been replaced by front end loaders of 10- to 13-cubic-foot capacity manned Improved finish grinding technology In the end-stage finish grinding of clinker, a series of improvements in conventional ball mills—although not dramatic—nonetheless is increasing capacity, lowering unit labor requirements, and reducing electrical energy 31 consumption. Plants constructed in the 1980’s feature finish grinding departments that incorporate high-effi ciency air separators and other innovations that make possible production rates of about 140 tons per hour, more than double the output of finish grinding units built in the 1960’s that used conventional separators. Another source of gains in efficiency is the construc tion of larger units that replace several smaller ones, thereby lowering capital, maintenance labor, and build ing space requirements. Moreover, computer process control systems reportedly can be utilized more readily on larger, single units. Other innovations in ball mills include improved variable-speed drive motors which maximize efficiency with varying mill loads, and new types of liners for the interior of the ball mill which direct the larger steel balls (the medium which grinds the clinker) to the larger particles that remain to be processed. These liners reportedly improve grinding ef ficiency and lower electric power consumed in the en ergy-intensive finish grinding operation. trol room operator and electronics technician—were created by the change. Lengthy in-house training was provided to employees chosen for the operator posi tions. The technician jobs were filled by applicants from a nearby community college. These reductions in labor requirements are attributable, mainly, to the establish ment of centralized control which, in turn, was facili tated by the installation of computers and state-of-theart processing equipment. Microprocessor-based control systems also are being used in the cement industry to upgrade the performance of older kilns. In one recent installation, continuous monitoring of kiln operations by the new system en ables the operator to see immediately the effect of any control actions on kiln production and fuel efficiency. As a result, output has increased 10 percent, kiln op erations are more uniform, fuel efficiency has increased, and clinker quality has improved. New, continuous analyzers and computer control are being installed onstream before the raw grinding proc ess to achieve economies in labor, fuel, and other cost items. Computers also are being used in quality control tasks. As an example, X-ray analyzing equipment in some plants is being incorporated into a program to control raw material blending. The data provided by the computer enable personnel to undertake precise and fast control steps, resulting in reduced raw material consumption and increased equipment utilization. Computer process control and instrumentation Computers and advanced instrumentation are improv ing efficiency in all phases of cement production—proc essing, material handling, and quality control. The more precise control provided by computers and instrumen tation facilitates optimum performance from equipment, resulting in increased productivity, reduced energy con sumption, lowered maintenance requirements, and im proved product quality. Broad application of computer control is generally an integral part of most new plant construction and major modernization programs. A microproces sor-based control system at one of the most modern new cement plants—typical of recent installations of this technology—includes a main computer with con sole and displays located in a central control room and additional computers located at the major production units. The central computer monitors plant operations through the network of computer-controllers pro grammed to carry out functions at various plant loca tions and automatically signal the central computer if a change in programming or instructions is required. All processing and material handling operations are un der computer control, from crushing through the stor age of finished cement. Equipment also is wired for manual control from the central location, permitting plant operation independent of the computer if the need arises. This single-kiln plant incorporating the latest tech nology was constructed alongside an existing multi-kiln facility which continued to operate until startup, and the changes in crew requirements in the old and new plants were significant. In all, 17 former kiln, raw mill, and finish mill operator occupations no longer exist in the new plant. However, two new classifications—con Improvements in material handling in shipping operations Technological improvements in the shipping depart ment have improved productivity in the filling, han dling, and loading of bags of cement. Although about 90 percent of cement is shipped in bulk carriers, the balance is transported in bags, which involves a series of labor-intensive operations to fill, handle, and load them. Developments in bag-filling machines, automatic palletizing, forklifts, and automation of recordkeeping have reduced labor requirements significantly. A fully automated bag-packing line reportedly will lower labor requirements by more than two-thirds compared to con ventional, nonautomated facilities. Output and Productivity Trends Output Demand for hydraulic cement is tied closely to the level of construction activity. Over the period 1970-84, output of hydraulic cement (BLS measure) rose in 9 years and declined in 5 years (see chart 8). However, the overall result was that output declined at an aver age annual rate of 0.7 percent over the entire period. During 1970-73, for example, output of hydraulic ce ment increased at an annual rate of 5.0 percent, as the 32 Chart 8. Output per employee hour and related data, hydraulic cement, 1970-84 Ratio scale (1977 = 100) Ratio scale (1977 = 100) 33 ciner kilns. Factors which could dampen prospects for pro ductivity growth include import competition from highly ef ficient cement plants located overseas which could slow U.S. expansion and, according to some observers, the higher than anticipated cost of operating new energy-efficient kilns and other new production equipment, which could slow their rate of diffusion. value of construction put in place rose sharply. How ever, after 1973, output growth turned around and, dur ing 1973-78, declined at an annual rate of 0.3 percent. It fell more sharply during the more recent period, 1978-84, at an annual rate of 2.7 percent. The declines were particularly pronounced during the recession years 1974-75 and 1981-82, when the decline in output in both periods exceeded 10 percent. In the recovery after 1982, output reversed direction and increased at an annual rate of 10.7 percent from 1982 to 1984. According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, the value of cement shipments is projected to increase an average of about 2 percent a year as construction ac tivity intensifies—particularly in the South and West. The cement industry has long been characterized by cycles of oversupply and acute shortage—a situation which may be moderated because of recent additions to capacity in the South and West, where demand for cement is projected to be strong, and cutbacks in areas where demand will likely be lower.6 Investment Capital expenditures by the cement industry have been increasing as producers modernize and construct new plants incorporating the latest production tech nologies. Over $2.5 billion (constant 1972 dollars) was spent for new plant and equipment by the industry from 1970 to 1982.7An outlay of $273 million (1972 dollars) in 1975 following 5 years of successive increases marked an 18-year high for investment in the industry. Annual spending fluctuated at lower levels between 1975 and 1982—mainly in response to demand conditions. A major share of expenditures went to install the ex pensive new dry process, suspension preheater kilns in both new and existing plants. The retirement of less fuel-efficient, smaller capacity kilns accompanied these installations. Major expenditures also were made for roller mills and other improved raw material grinding equipment, for technology to convert from oil and natu ral gas to less expensive coal in kiln firing, and to in troduce expensive air pollution control technology which, in some cases, amounted to a quarter of the cost of a new plant. The substantial capital requirements of cement manu facture are reflected by the industry’s high outlay per production worker, which averaged over three and one-half times that of manufacturing as a whole during 1970-82. In the near term, available capital funds are expected to be directed primarily to efficiency-improving projects in existing plants to reduce costs. Additional emphasis on automation, including computer process control, also may further reduce labor and energy requirements. However, expansion and modernization have been slowed by factors such as import competition and lower prices for cement. Productivity Productivity in the cement industry has increased relatively slowly. Between 1970 and 1984, output per employee hour (BLS index) rose at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent—well below the 2.3-percent annual growth rate in manufacturing over the same period. During 1970-73, output per employee hour increased sharply—by an annual rate of 5.2 percent. This gain resulted when output increased at an annual rate of 5.0 percent, and employee hours fell at an annual rate of 0.2 percent. With the falloff in output after 1973, productivity growth also fell sharply. During 1973-78, output per employee hour increased at a substantially lower annual rate of 1.2 percent. Over the following 6-year period, 1978-84, however, output per employee hour rose at an annual rate of 3.3 percent due to the strong annual rate of increase of 14.5 percent during 1982-84 as the economy recovered from recession and demand for ce ment rose significantly. The largest annual decline in output per employee hour—9.4 percent—was from 1979 to 1980, when out put moved lower by 11.2 percent and employee hours fell by 2.0 percent. The outlook for productivity change in the cement industry is difficult to assess. However, several trends underway suggest that prospects for productivity growth may be more favorable in the latter part of the 1980’s. These include projected higher levels of output and utilization of capacity and further outlays for new technology, including the more efficient preheater/precal- Employment and Occupational Trends Employment Employment in the cement industry declined between 1970 and 1985 as production facilities were consolidated 7 U .S. Departm ent o f C om m erce, Bureau o f Industrial E conom ics, O ffice o f R esearch, A n alysis and Statistics. 1982 is the latest year for w h ich these data are available. 6 U.S. Department o f Commerce, International Trade Administration, 1986 Industrial Outlook, pp. 2-9. 34 and new production technology was introduced (chart 9). In 1985, 23,400 workers (BLS data) were employed in U.S. cement plants—9,900 fewer than in 1970. The decline in nonproduction workers (down 33 percent) was more severe than for production workers (down 29 percent). Over the period 1970-84, the number of plants manufacturing portland cement declined by 21 percent from 178 to 141.8 9 The trend in employment for selected periods fol lowed the trend in output. Over the broad span of years 1970-85, employment declined at an average annual rate of 2.0 percent. For the periods 1970-73 and 1973-78, employment declined at an identical annual rate of 0.8 percent. Over the more recent period 1978-85, how ever, the rate of decline was much more severe—down by an annual rate of 5.1 percent as output fell off sharply. The largest year-to-year declines were associated with the recession years of 1974-75 and 1981-82, when em ployment declined by 6.0 percent and 10.0 percent, re spectively. The number employed in the cement indus try in 1985 was the lowest since 1970. The longer term outlook is for employment in hy draulic cement to continue to decline. BLS projects that employment may fall to 19,210 in 1995 (moder ate-growth projection)—an average annual rate of de cline of 2.0 percent between 1985 and 1995/ ate the cement plant from a central control room. This is a highly skilled job which requires a thorough knowl edge of all aspects of cement production. Employees assigned to these new positions received training as de scribed in the following section on adjustments to new technology. Prior to computer control, operators monitored panels immediately adjacent to various pro duction processes located throughout the cement plant. New positions also were added in the laboratory and in rock storage and process operations. In accordance with the general industry trends mentioned earlier, the complex of innovations at this plant also resulted in the elimination of semiskilled operator, helper, and other positions in the kiln, finish mill, raw mill, and other plant units. The maintenance work force in cement plants also has been affected by new technology. New equipment frequently incorporates sensors which provide advance notice of impending costly breakdowns so that correc tive action can be taken. Maintenance requirements in modern cement plants also are lower because fewer machines are in place compared to older facilities. How ever, maintenance tasks associated with advanced tech nology are more complex and involve a knowledge of electronics. Adjustment of workers to technological change A substantial majority of the work force in the ce ment industry is covered by collective bargaining agree ments with the Cement, Lime, Gypsum and Allied Workers Division of the International Brotherhood of Boilermakers—the major union representing workers in the cement industry. Provisions in these agreements such as those that relate to seniority, advance notice of impending technological change, training, and reassign ment of workers are applicable when employees are af fected by the introduction of computer process control and the other innovations described in this report. The implementation of training programs has been a major method of adjustment of the work force to the changing requirements of new technology. At one new cement plant which features an advanced computer process control system, for example, the training pro gram developed by the company to prepare employees to staff new control room operator positions was suc cessful in preparing employees to function with the new equipment. At this facility, applicants for the new op erator positions who passed a vision examination and qualifying tests administered by the State were selected, on the basis of seniority, to receive intensive on-the-job and classroom training extending over 9 months. Train ing was at company expense and provided during duty hours. Those who completed the training course were promoted to the relatively high-paying new control room operator positions. In addition to technological changes in operating Occupations New technology appears to have resulted in changes in the structure and content of some key occupations, including operator and maintenance positions, where job requirements have changed after modernization. Specific production worker occupations affected by new technology and declining in importance include semiskilled operatives, transport equipment operatives, and laborers. In contrast, control room operators and skilled maintenance workers have increased in relative importance as more complex technologies have been adopted. The introduction of computer process control is an innovation which has had a significant impact on oc cupations at plants visited by BLS. At one of the most advanced cement plants in the United States, for exam ple, an extensive modernization program in the early 1980’s featured a state-of-the-art computer process con trol system, a preheater kiln, a roller mill, and other innovations being adopted more extensively through out the industry. Among new jobs created was control room operator, whose major responsibility is to oper 8 Bureau o f M ines, Minerals Yearbook, 1970 and 1984 editions. 9 B L S projects three levels o f industry em ploym ent for 1995 based on alternative versions o f economic growth: A low, moderate, and high level. T he lo w projection for hydraulic cem ent is 18,380; the high projection is 19,740. For details on assumptions and m eth odol o g y used to dev elo p these projections, see the Monthly Labor Review, N ovem ber 1985. 35 Chart 9. Employment in hydraulic cement, 1970-85, and projections, 1985-95 Employees (thousands) Employees (thousands) 40 40 35 35 All employees 30 25 High Moderate' 20 20 Low ^ 15 Average annual percent change' 15 All em ployees 1970-85 ..................................... -2 .0 1973-78.................................. -0 .8 1978-85.................................. -5 ,1 10 10 1985-95 (moderate projection)1 -2 .0 2 Production w orkers 1970-85 ..................................... -1 .9 1973-78.................................. -0 .5 1978-85.................................. - 5 .5 0 1970 l l 72 I l I l I l I l I l I l i 82 84 78 80 74 76 l i 90 1 Least squares trends method for historical data; compound interest method for projections. 2 See text footnote 9. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 36 i 92 i l 94 expired contracts, which began in 1984 and continued with considerable conflict into 1985, resulted in some concessions by the union in benefits and work practices. The single issue of technological change was not para mount over this period. The negotiations have been prolonged compared to past bargaining sessions in the cement industry, with the departure from longstanding pattern bargaining reported to be a major issue of contention. plants, workers in the cement industry have been af fected by the closing down of less-efficient facilities as a result of foreign imports of cement, high energy costs, expenses related to air pollution control requirements, and related factors. As indicated earlier, the number of cement plants declined by 21 percent between 1970 and 1984. As a recognition of these problems, bargaining be tween the union and cement producers to renegotiate S E LE C T E D R EFER EN C ES “G eneral Portland Plant U ses U nique C om p u ter/H an d lin g/B len d in g System s,” R o c k P rodu cts, June 1981, pp. 60-64. L evine, Sid. “P reheater/Precalciner K iln R eplaces Six W et-Process K ilns,” P it a n d Q u arry, July 1983, pp. 52-59. G rancher, R o y A . “U .S. Cement: R ecoverin g as a Changed Indus try,” P it a n d Q u a rry, July 1984, pp. 83-86, 88. Mariano, Ann. “Im ports W eigh D o w n Cem ent,” The W ashington Post, N ovem ber 3, 1984, pp. F8-9. Hall, W illiam B. and Robert E. Ela. “C em ent,” M in e r a l C o m m o d ity Profile. Bureau o f M ines, U .S. Departm ent o f Interior, 1978. Pitcher, C.B. “Portland C em ent Industry, Profile: Bright Prospects but M any C hallenges,” C on stru ction R eview , Septem ber/O ctober 1981, pp. 4-14. H elm uth, Richard A ., F.M . M iller, T .R . O ’Connor, and N .R . G reen ing. “C em ent,” K ir k -O th m a r E n cy clo p ed ia o f C h e m ic a l Technology, third edition, V o l. 5, pp. 163-193. John W iley and Sons, 1979. Portland C em ent A ssociation. U.S. a n d C a n a d ia n P o rtla n d C e m e n t In d u stry: P la n t In form ation S u m m a ry , D ecem ber 1984. Huhta, Richard S. “L one Star’s N ew est C em ent Plant Rises Out o f the O ld ,” R o c k P rodu cts, M arch 1982, pp. 52, 54-56. Robertson, Joseph L. “Im pact Crushers C om e in W ide Range o f Sizes and T yp es,” R o c k P rodu cts, M arch 1983, pp. 41-43. Rukavina, M itchell. “Redfem : Best 5 Years C om ing,” R o c k P roducts, February 1985, pp. 41-44. L evine, Sid. “Mark 100 Years o f C em ent P roduction in T exas,” P it a n d Q u a rry, D ecem ber 1982, pp. 34-39. Tiggesbaum ker, P. and M. M uller. “T h e Influence o f Ball M ill Speed on Energy Expenditure and Throughput Capacity,” P it a n d Q uarry, July 1984, pp. 56-63. L evine, Sid. “N e w M ojave Plant o f California Portland U nder C om puter C ontrol,” P it a n d Q u a rry, July 1983, pp. 82-87. 37 Chapter 4. Wholesale Trade Summary group engaged in wholesale trade consists of agents, brokers, and commission merchants, and they accounted for slightly more than 10 percent of the total. In terms of sales, however, the relative shares were more evenly distributed between merchant wholesalers and manufacturers. Merchant wholesalers held 58 per cent in 1982, while the manufacturers’ share was 31 percent. (The share of the third group mentioned above was about 11 percent.) Over the decade 1972-82, whole salers increased their share while manufacturers reduced theirs. With the exception of chemicals, the merchant wholesalers held a larger share of sales than manufac turers in the major durable and nondurable goods sec tors. Manufacturers were involved in the wholesaling of all goods except farm product raw materials and ac counted for more than one-third of the products dis tributed in many of the sectors. The wholesale trade industry (SIC 50,51) is under going changes in marketing techniques and warehouse technology. These developments are largely associated with the availability of computer-based information and technology systems which make possible geographic expansion, better management controls, and enlarged wholesale distribution functions. Increased competition has accelerated the need to improve productivity and reduce costs. However, computer technologies are still not widely diffused, except for inventory control systems. Definitive measurements of wholesale trade produc tivity are not available, but output and hours data sug gest that productivity growth during the period 197085 averaged about 1.0 percent annually. However, in dustry representatives suggest that improved produc tivity through 1990 is likely, with fuller use of resources associated with a wider range of functions and product diversification by many firms. Employment grew almost steadily during 1960-85 and stood at the relatively high level of about 5.7 million persons in 1985. The industry’s employment is projected to grow through 1995, but at a slower rate than during the 1970’s. Increases are projected through 1995 for all major occupational groups. Occupations dealing with data processing require training, and some shortages in these occupations are a possibility. Technology in the 1980’s The industry’s major technologies involve the appli cation of computers or computer-like devices to the important functions of processing data, controlling equipment, and managing information. The improved efficiency and accuracy in carrying out these functions expedite the receipt of products, their movement within warehouses, and their shipment to final destinations. Lower unit labor requirements are often the result. Computerized technologies also make it possible to serve broader and more varied markets. However, except for drug wholesalers, computer technologies are still not widely diffused. Most firms that have computers only utilize them in inventory man agement and accounting. A very small percentage of all firms utilize computers or microprocessors in two other functions—equipment control and information management—while a still smaller proportion have sys tems that integrate control of all three functions with a hierarchy of computers and microprocessors. Never theless, many firms have reduced their labor as well as space requirements through automation of a limited area of their facilities that contains frequently moved small items. In addition, deliveries are being provided virtually on call (”just-in-time” inventory) through the applica Description of Industry In addition to their primary function of selling mer chandise, wholesalers perform many other services for their suppliers and customers. These include inventory control for customers, extension of credit, physical as sembly, sorting and grading of goods in large lots, tech nical advice, and various types of promotion. Manufac turing firms which perform the wholesaling function usually provide some, but not all of the same services. The industry is comprised of three major sectors. Merchant wholesalers, who sell and move goods from producers to retailers or to commercial, industrial, or other users, accounted for slightly more than 80 per cent of the establishments in 1982. The second group, manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, accounted for less than 10 percent of the establishments. The third 38 ice, some factors—such as picking and filling orders from split cases and/or lack of uniformity in size of parts—make it economically feasible to adopt only semiand not fully automated equipment. Major technological changes in wholesale trade are discussed below and presented in table 4 together with their labor impact and diffusion. In general, these data are limited to wholesaler-distributors. tion of advanced warehouse technologies.1These serv ices are being provided for those manufacturers who prefer that wholesalers assume a greater role in man aging inventories in order to reduce their own inventories.2 Industry representatives cite the major factors that are associated with the utilization of the most advanced automated technologies by all wholesaling firms.3 The largest firms (annual sales of over $100 million) and firms which must provide service with rapid turnaround time are most likely to adopt the latest, costly technolo gies that utilize only minimum work forces. However, even when there is a premium on providing rapid serv- Computerized data processing Two of the principal applications of computerized data processing are inventory control, and delivery scheduling and vehicle load planning. C om puterized inventory control system. Computers and appropriate software have made it economically advan tageous to devise inventory control systems that greatly improve the speed and accuracy of sales orders and warehouse operations. With a computerized inventory system, an inside salesperson, in telephone contact with a prospective customer, can utilize a nearby keyboard terminal and display screen for information on an item’s availability, price, and closest location. Computer ter minals provide the same instantaneous or on-line infor mation for warehouse workers involved in the storage and retrieval of goods. The system permits centralized warehouses to supply satellite warehouses with only 1John A . W hite, “W arehousing in a Changing W orld,” Institute o f Industrial Engineers, 198 3 In te rn a tio n a l C on ference on A u to m a tio n a n d W arehousing P ro ceed in g s, p. 4; “ AS/RS and Just-in-Time: Partners in Manufacturing,” M odern M a teria ls H andling, August 6, 1984, p. 56. 2 Arthur Andersen & Co., F u tu re T ren ds in W holesale D istr ib u tio n : A T im e o f O p p o rtu n ity, prepared for the Distribution R esearch and E ducation Foundation o f the National A ssociation o f W holesaler-D is tributors, W ashington, 1983, p. 14. 3T ypically, m anufacturing firms that have high ly autom ated facto ries— as for exam ple, food and pharm aceutical product m anufac turers— are also likely to have h igh ly autom ated equipment in their w h olesale distribution warehouses. On the other hand, labor-inten sive manufacturing plants invariably rely upon manual operations in wholesaling. Table 4. Major technology changes in wholesale trade Technology Labor implications Description Diffusion Unit labor requirements are sharply Currently in use by 25-40 percent of wholesaler-distributors; expected reduced for sales and clerical to rise to 50-75 percent in 1990. workers. Reduction is smaller among warehouse workers. Computerized inventory control system Computer terminals in the sales of fice and warehouse make it pos sible to generate on-line information on a screen regarding the avail ability, price, and location of any product. Microprocessor-controlled conveyor system Microprocessors control the ware Unit labor requirements are reduced house functions of storage and re at least 25 percent. Only modest trieval and recording of selected amount of programming needed. information. High stackers Some stackers have computerized Computerized stackers sharply re Computer-controlled stackers are widely diffused only in the largest retrieval machines that are pro duce unit labor requirements for grammed to store and retrieve ob travel within warehouse and in firms. Limited by high cost and jects automatically, but the most picking materials. Operators re specialized functions. common form of stacker is a spe quire specialized training for non cialized forklift. computerized stackers having a sideloading capability. Automatic guided vehicles (AGV’s) A battery-powered, driverless vehicle that follows a low-frequency signal transmitted through a guidepath or wire installed on a warehouse floor. Control is usually via an on board microprocessor that may be linked to a central computer. AGV's can interface with con veyors and form a crucial link in an automated storage and re trieval system. Replaces forklifts. 39 Systems installed primarily by the largest firms; will continue to be utilized by the largest firms only. Labor requirements in warehouses Currently these vehicles are being are reduced by about one-third; used primarily by the largest firms. less product damage and reduc Greater diffusion is likely to occur tion in required inventory are addi only among the largest firms. tional advantages. majority of firms in the industry.5Most merchant whole salers still rely upon such mechanical equipment as fork lifts and flow racks, with which the movement of ma terials is actuated by the force of gravity. The combi nation of microprocessor and computer-controlled equipment with fully integrated storage and retrieval systems requiring a minimum work force has not been adopted widely. Most of the work hours in a typical warehouse are related to the movement of goods. An estimated 75 percent of labor’s activity is associated with such move ment. It is these work hours that are very sharply re duced by automated systems which expedite handling and distribution of goods. Identification technologies, such as bar coding, in conjunction with computer-controlled equipment, greatly increase the speed and accuracy of processing information and the movement of goods into and out of the warehouse. According to the experience of one wholesale distributing firm, the number of cartons han dled daily increased more than 50 percent after bar code scanning was introduced, and such improvement would have been impossible with a manual system.6 Automatic identification technologies were estimated by a survey to be in use in only 10 percent of the firms in 1985, but accounted for a much higher proportion of the industry’s sales. The survey projected that 25 percent of wholesaler-distributors would be utilizing automatic identification devices in 1990.7 fast-moving items. Some customers even find it eco nomical to subscribe to the computer-based systems of their wholesalers for the management of their own inventories. A major impact on labor is evident in a computer ized inventory system. Lower unit labor requirements are associated with quicker turnaround time by sales, clerical, and warehouse personnel. This is especially evident when order entry terminals are located on the premises of a wholesaler’s customers. This computer ized system enables customers to input orders them selves, and installation of such systems is expected to increase rapidly through 1990. In some industries, e.g., drugs, this process is already very widely utilized. Or ders via electronic mail are also expected to increase rapidly in some industries. In addition, the automated inventory system enables inside salespersons to assume some of the duties of out side salespersons. The inside sales force will receive more telephone sales training, while the outside sales force will receive promotional and marketing training. Also, improved inventory management allows a lower level of inventory because it provides warehouse workers with accurate data rapidly. Utilization of computerized inventory control sys tems is expected to increase among merchant whole salers. About 10-20 percent of wholesaler-distributors used these systems in 1980 and an estimated 25-40 per cent in 1985. The proportion is expected to rise to 5075 percent in 1990.4 Microprocessor-controlled conveyor system Conveyors with microprocessor controls greatly en hance the range of functions that can be performed by making it possible to automate functions in a step-bystep fashion. These functions include not only the usual one of moving materials, but also the generating, moni toring, recording, and reporting of operational data. However, the versatile advanced conveyors, which function with automatic loading/unloading, are very expensive and have only been applied by firms that handle a huge volume of products. A large distributor may initially utilize a conveyor as a sorting system with software and code scanners that identify products and move them efficiently and at high speeds. Next, systems could be introduced, for example, to monitor the time required to select items for a shipment or to check whether or not a shipment matches an original order. More sophisticated systems combine with robots in or der to operate within a limited space or to reduce la bor requirements in slow, complex operations. A substantial share of all wholesale deliveries consists of items of low volume, wide variety, and frequent deliv ery. Many wholesaler-distributors have therefore de cided that the most profitable and efficient operations are likely to take place with the assistance of comput erized systems for delivery route scheduling and vehi cle load planning. This use of computers is expected to increase in im portance. Industry representatives estimate that by 1990, 50 percent of the wholesaler-distributors will use com puterized systems for delivery route scheduling and ve hicle load planning. In 1980, a very small percentage of wholesalers used such systems. C om pu terized scheduling an d vehicle load planning. Storage and retrieval equipment in warehousing The wide variety of equipment used in warehouses includes mechanical, electrical, computer-driven, and almost fully automatic equipment involving a high de gree of electronic control. However, only the easier warehouse functions have been automated by the great 5John A . W hite and M ichael A . M ullens, “M anagem ent Support System s for W arehousing,” A n n u a l C on ference P roceedings, T h e N a tional C ouncil o f Physical Distribution M anagem ent, 1984, p. 561. 6M od e rn M a te ria ls H a n d lin g , D ecem b er 10, 1984, p. 57. ’ Andersen, F u tu re T ren ds, p. 33. 4Andersen, Future Trends, p. 33. 40 to be in use by 75 percent of the largest wholesalers. Their rate of diffusion is expected to increase but will remain limited to the largest firms. Usage of the standard, semiautomatic conveyor is ex pected to triple between 1982 and 1990. Diffusion of this conveyor will increase from 17 percent to about 50 percent of the wholesaler-distributors.9 High stacker Semiautomated and computerized machines that are programmed to store or retrieve objects in any prede termined location with reduced labor input are among the most technically advanced of various types of high stackers. The semiautomated stackers, which have a sideloading capability, increase the utilization of cubic space by traveling operatorless on wire guides within narrow aisles. An operator is needed to steer this type of stacker only when it travels on the main aisles of a warehouse. The semiautomatic, computerized stackers decrease storage and retrieval time within a warehouse and can sharply reduce the unit labor requirements for opera tors by two-thirds to three-fourths, according to an in dustry representative. The stacker’s contribution to im proved productivity is evident when several orders are filled automatically and simultaneously with items stored in a high, inaccessible area of a warehouse. Efficiency is also enhanced on a noncomputerized high stacker (a specialized forklift with a 25- to 30-foot reach), although operators of these stackers may require specialized training for sideloading. The semiautomatic computerized stackers are rather widely diffused, but only among the largest merchant wholesalers and manufacturing firms, and it is likely that more of these firms will introduce fully automated machines into some of their operations. Even the non computerized stackers are in use by only the larger merchant wholesalers, and their diffusion is likely to increase to only about 25 percent in 1990. The consid erable cost of these high stackers and their specialized functions limit diffusion. Warehouse workers use a microprocessor-controlled conveyor system for storage, retrieval, and shipment o f drugs. The conveyor’s synchronization of data with the flow of materials reduces unit labor requirements at least 25 percent and affects the skills in several occupations, ac cording to an industry specialist. In some cases, require ments for clerical workers, who basically perform a bookkeeping function, are reduced, and these workers usually do not move into the newly required position of programmer. Generally, the operatives involved in material handling become monitors of the conveyors’ operations and must acquire the limited knowledge of handling information and product flow that enables them to make needed occasional adjustments on the conveyors. Maintenance personnel must have enough knowledge of how the computer operates to be able to maintain and repair the conveyors. Microprocessors or computer-controlled equipment (including conveyors) are also being applied to so-called miniload storage and retrieval systems, in which more frequently moved small items are handled separately. While a miniload system may improve efficiency even when manually operated, the improvement is maximized when the system has microprocessor or computer con trols of storage and retrieval equipment. For example, in one automobile parts warehouse, the computerized miniload system contained one-third of the parts in the entire inventory, but those parts accounted for 60 per cent of the firm’s inventory transactions. The labor re quirements for the miniload system were only one-sev enth of the labor that was involved with the total in ventory system. While only one picker was needed for the miniload system, six pickers were needed for the rest of the inventory in this warehouse.8 Microprocessor-controlled conveyors are estimated M iniloads. Automatic guided vehicle (AGV) AGV’s are battery-powered and driverless vehicles, but they vary in their controls for picking and deliver ing materials. Some AGV’s are controlled by central computer, but, increasingly, the preferred vehicles are controlled by an onboard microprocessor, which may be linked to a central computer. The vehicles follow a low-frequency signal that is transmitted through a guidepath or wire installed on a warehouse floor. AGV’s can interface with conveyors, vertical lifts, or other equipment, forming a link with the automated portions of a storage and retrieval system. 8 Modem Materials Handling—1984 Casebook Directory Issue, Vol. 38, N o. 17, p. 149. 9 Andersen, Future Trends, p. 33. 41 The microprocessor-controlled AGV’s maximize ef ficiency through faster movement of materials. This in volves avoiding collisions and routing over optimum routes. Usually, the operations of AGV’s are monitored on a terminal screen in a supervisor’s area. AGV’s reduce unit labor requirements by about onethird because of elimination of forklift drivers and the reduced storage and retrieval time. Less product dam age, greater accuracy in filling orders, and reduction in required inventory could also be advantages of the ve hicles. Maintenance is simplified if onboard microprocessors provide diagnostic information about the AGV’s operations. These vehicles are likely to be substituted increas ingly for forklift trucks among the larger firms. Output and Productivity Outlook Output Although reliable output data are not available for the wholesale trade industry, the value that wholesale trade adds to the gross national product (adjusted for price changes) may be used as a rough measure of out put. These data suggest an average annual growth rate of about 3 percent in 1970-85, considerably slower than the growth rate of the 1960’s of more than 5'/i percent (chart 10). Output declined in the 2 recession years, 1974 and 1980. The industry recovered in 1984 and 1985, with sharp increases of more than 12 and 5 per cent, respectively. Looking ahead to 1990, wholesaler-distributors ex pect to add several new services for their suppliers (usually manufacturers) and customers that will con tribute to output growth.1 While inventory manage 0 ment for suppliers and customers will remain the most frequently performed service by wholesalers, a wider range of services will be offered. These will include educational seminars and training for their customers, market research and analysis, product marketing, and financial management services. The primary reason for suppliers and customers to turn to wholesalers for these services is the belief that wholesalers can perform them more cost effectively. It is interesting to note, however, that extension of credit, which used to be very impor tant, may be reduced by 1990. grew at an average annual rate of about 1 percent dur ing 1970-85, similar to the rate for the entire business sector of the economy. The industry’s productivity increased at an average rate of about 4 V percent during 1970-73, but had virtually i no growth during 1973-80, as productivity declined in 4 years—1974, 1976, 1979, and 1980. In 1980-85, however, productivity advanced about 3.0 percent annually, or about 80 percent of the rate in the 1960’s. This growth in the first half of the 1980’s reflected an increase in output of nearly 5.0 percent and an associated hours increase of less than 2.0 percent. The outlook for productivity growth in 1985-90 is not clear, but industry representatives anticipate that output will grow at about the rather high level of the first half of the decade.1 At the same time, laborsaving 1 technologies (previously considered) are expected to be more widely utilized. These technologies, according to 91 percent of the respondents to a survey of members of the National Council of Physical Distribution Manage ment, are mainly responsible for higher productivity.1 2 The wholesalers’ fuller use of their resources through the handling of an increased diversity of products, geo graphic expansion, and the performance of more mar keting functions is also likely to increase sales and im prove productivity. For some firms, this would require investments in computers for inventory control and microprocessor-controlled equipment in the warehouse. Leading to improved productivity are new sales and management techniques, incorporating sophisticated in formation systems, which make servicing possible via the telephone. The continued growth in the application of such computer systems increases the efficiency of sales personnel. Also, more widespread use of national standardized order systems would increase efficiency, but would re quire greater cooperation of efforts of wholesalers, sup pliers, and customers. One of the components of such systems—standard product numbering and marking—is expected to be used by over 90 percent of manufac turers and wholesaler-distributors by 1990.1 3 Investment Capital expenditures Capital expenditures in wholesale trade (data avail able only for merchant wholesalers at 5-year intervals1) 4 increased sharply for each of the years 1967, 1972, 1977, Productivity Because of the limitations of available data, the Bu reau of Labor Statistics does not publish measures of productivity for the wholesale trade industry. However, the trend in productivity change can be approximated from estimated output and hours data for all persons. These data suggest that productivity in wholesale trade “ Ibid., p. 12. 1 Bernard J. L aL on de and Richard Brand, “Career Patterns in D is 2 tribution: Profile 1982,” in Annual Conference Proceedings, The Na tional C ouncil o f P hysical Distribution M anagem ent, V o l. 1 (San Francisco, 1982), p. 30. 1 Andersen, Future Trends, p. 29. 3 14 Census of Wholesale Trade. »°Ibid., pp. 14, 34. 42 Chart 10. Output and hours of all persons, wholesale trade, 1970-85 Ratio scale (1977 = 100) Ratio scale (1977 = 100) p = preliminary. Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; and Bureau of Labor Statistics. will be related to the development of new products and markets. Investment for new warehouses is expected to decline, in part because space requirements will fall as a result of improved inventory management.1 6 and 1982, even when account is taken of price changes. Real capital expenditures (in constant 1972 dollars)1 by 5 the merchant wholesalers in 1982 (latest data) totaled about $6.6 billion, 2.6 times more than in 1972. By comparison, 1982 real investment by the private busi ness sector for equipment and structures was only 39 percent higher than in 1972 (BLS data). Moreover, in view of the extensive practice of leas ing and renting in this industry, data on capital expendi tures do not include all of the industry’s outlays for buildings and structures, and machinery and equipment. Census data for 1982 (most recent data available) indi cate that lease and rental payments were as much as 60 percent as large as new capital expenditures. Capital expenditures are expected to increase through 1990 to accommodate internal growth and mergers and acquisitions. This will include substantial outlays for laborsaving equipment such as warehouse mechaniza tion and computer equipment. Some of the equipment Employment and Occupational Trends Employment Wholesale trade employment increased at an annual rate of 2.5 percent during 1970-85 (chart 11), approxi mately the same rate as in 1960-70. Employment rose almost steadily through the two decades but the rate of growth slowed in 1978-85 to 1.6 percent annually. This reflected employment declines in 1982 and 1983. Since 1960, employment had fallen only twice before, in 1961 and 1975. However, by 1985, employment stood at 5.7 million persons, a new peak. This represented 7.0 percent of total private nonagricultural employment. Employment grew somewhat faster in the durable goods sector than in the nondurable goods sector of wholesale trade from 1972 (earliest data available) to 1985. In 1985, 59 percent of all wholesale trade em ployees were in the durable goods sector. 1 Data deflated for price changes by the price deflators for equip 5 ment and structures in w h olesale and retail trade o f Bureau o f E c o nom ic Analysis o f the D epartm ent o f Com m erce. 16Andersen, Future Trends, pp. 39-40. 43 Chart 11. Employment in wholesale trade, 1970-85, and projections, 1985-95 Employees (millions) Employees (millions) 'Least squares trends method for historical data: compound interest method for projections. 2 See text footnote 17. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 44 Women employees increased 77 percent from 1970 to 1985. By 1985, they accounted for 28 percent of the industry’s total employment, compared with an aver age of 51 percent in all private service-producing industries. The percentage of nonsupervisory workers in whole sale trade has shown a gradual, steady decline since 1960. In 1985, they accounted for about 80 percent of all wholesale employees, compared with 86 percent in all private service-producing industries. Looking ahead—from 1985 to 1995—BLS, on the basis of its moderate-growth projection, projects an av erage annual increase in employment of 1.4 percent.1 7 Advances are projected to be considerably greater for the durable goods sector than for the nondurable goods sector. Occupations Despite sharp differences in growth rates among the major occupational groups, the occupational distribu tion will show little change from 1984 to 1995. Employment in each group is expected to increase, according to BLS (table 5). The two major occupa tional groups—marketing and sales, and administrative support, including clerical—are expected to continue to account for more than 55 percent of all employees in 1995. While the administrative support group is ex pected to increase at the slowest rate over the period for any group (by less than 7 percent), an increase of over 28 percent is projected for marketing and sales workers. Two smaller occupational groups—managerial and management-related occupations, and transportation and material-moving machine and vehicle opera tors—are expected to increase 24 and 16 percent, re spectively. However, they will each continue to ac count for 10 percent of all employees. Two comparatively small occupational groups—en gineers and computer systems analysts, and the techni cian occupations—are expected to experience the most rapid advance during 1984-95. Each group will expand by over 40 percent, but together the groups will still account for less than 5 percent of all employees. To some extent, this growth reflects expanded computer applications. Helpers, laborers, and manual material handlers, will be among the slowest growing occupa tions, projected to increase by about 8 percent over the period. A radical shift in the composition of the sales occu pations is expected by 1990, when the number of inside salespersons may increase to roughly the same number as outside salespersons. Currently, outside salespersons 1 7 BLS projections for 1995 are based on three alternative versions o f econ om ic grow th for the overall econ om y. T he alternative as sumptions are described in the N ovem ber 1985 issue o f the Monthly Labor Review. 45 constitute about 60 percent of the total in sales occu pations. The shift is expected to result from the increas ing cost of field sales operations and the availability of advanced information and marketing systems to serv ice customers from multiple distribution outlets. As mentioned earlier, job skill requirements are likely to change with the diffusion of the new technologies. Adjustment of workers to technological change Programs to protect workers from the adverse effects of changes in machinery and methods may be incorpo rated into union contracts or they may be informal ar rangements between workers and management. In gen eral, such programs are more prevalent and detailed in formal contracts. In the wholesale trade industry, the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, the Food and Commercial Workers International Union, and the International Longshoremens’ and Warehousemen’s Union represent about 15 percent of the employees. Worker coverage is considerably higher in warehouse-related operations, for such occupations as freight handler, forklift opera tor, and truckdriver, than in office operations. Seniority provides a measure of job security in the agreements of this industry when technological change results in the permanent layoff of workers. This secu rity is likely to be enhanced when an agreement also contains a clause requiring notification of the union in advance of the introduction of new machinery or methods, and discussion by labor and management of the impact of any layoffs upon employees. A clause of this sort is often found in agreements covering 1,000 or more employees. Notification of a union representative before the usage of new equipment is generally required for the purpose of negotiating a wage scale for the equipment. Reemployment rights are also generally based on sen iority in labor-management contracts and extend up to 24 months at the same location. Typically, seniority rights do not extend to another location of the firm be cause contracts provide for separate seniority lists for each branch or warehouse. However, in case of per manent transfer of workers to another location of a firm (e.g., when separate distribution centers are merged) and also if a location is permanently closed, seniority does apply. Workers who lose their jobs because an employer goes out of business or terminates operations may receive a lump-sum severance payment that is com monly made on the basis of years of service. Training and retraining may be specified in a union contract as means of aiding worker adjustment to tech nological change or improving worker earnings. In one contract, the driver-salespersons are expected to attend “sales and training’’ sessions. Another contract requires the employer to assume the cost of training for driving a tractor-trailer. Table 5. Projected changes in employment in wholesale trade by occupational group, 1984-95 Occupational group Number of employees (thousands) Percent of industry employment Percent change in number of employees 1984-95 1984 1995 1984 1995 T o tal.................................................... 5,549.8 6,577.6 100.0 100.0 18.5 Managerial and related occupations........... 530.3 60.6 139.2 1,451.4 658.7 9.6 10.0 86.1 1.1 197.2 1,858.9 2.5 26.2 1.3 3.0 28.3 24.2 42.2 41.5 28.1 1,717.7 81.5 366.9 59.5 1,829.8 98.9 ■ 463.0 80.8 30.9 1.5 141.6 168.8 574 250.9 165.1 Engineers and computer systems analysts Technician occupations .............................. Marketing and sales occupations Administrative support occupations, including clerical Blue-collar worker supervisors Mechanics, installers, and re p a ire rs ........... Precision production occupations Machine setters, set-up operators, operators, and tenders Transportation and material moving machine and vehicle operators Helpers, laborers, and material movers, h a n d ............................................. All other occupations 27.8 1.5 7.0 1.2 6.5 21.3 26.3 16.3 2.5 2.6 19.2 668.7 10.4 10.2 16.3 271.7 195.2 4.5 3.0 4.1 3.0 8.3 18.2 6.6 1.2 ____________ Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. pliers’ factories for instruction. In general, training for most occupations will con tinue to be provided on the job. However, training for data processing will be largely provided by professional training firms, colleges and universities, and trade as sociations. According to an industry-sponsored study, a shortage of data processing personnel is a possibility in the near future.1 8 More often, however, training and retraining are con ducted in the absence of particular specification in the agreement. For instance, a wholesaler-distributor of electrical items has a “high tech” facility in one of its locations that is utilized to provide demonstration as well as instruction on the capabilities of new prod ucts—for example, programmable controllers—to the firm’s sales personnel, as well as to prospective cus tomers. Since sales personnel have to learn about new products continuously, they may also be sent to sup 18Andeirsen, Future T rends, pp. 19, 36. S E LE C T E D R E FE R E N C E S Arthur Andersen & Co. F u tu re T ren ds in W holesale D istrib u tio n : A T im e o f O p p o rtu n ity. F or Distribution R esearch and Education F oundation o f the N ational A ssociation o f W holesaler-D istribu tors, W ashington, D .C ., 1983. G rottke, R obert L. and James W. Norris. Im p ro vin g P ro d u c tiv ity a n d P rofits in W holesale D istrib u tio n , W ashington, D .C ., T h e D istribu tion R esearch and E du cation F oundation o f the N ational A sso cia tion o f W holesaler-D istributors, 1981. “A S /R S and Just-In-Time: Partners in M anufacturing,” M od e rn M a teria ls H a n d lin g , A u gust 6, 1984, pp. 56-62. La Cagnina, M ichael L. “O m ega Im proves P rod uctivity 50% ,” in A n n u a l C on ference P roceedings, V olu m e 1, T h e N ational C ouncil o f Phy sical Distribution M anagem ent, San F rancisco, O ctober 1013, 1982, pp. 293-314. “A utom ated Storage and R etrieval,” I n d u s tria l D istrib u tio n , M ay 1982, pp. 205-08. La L onde, Bernard J. and Richard Brand. “Career Patterns in D is tribution: Profile 1982,” in A n n u a l C on ference P roceedings, V ol. 1, T h e National C ouncil o f Physical Distribution M anagem ent, San F rancisco, O ctober 10-13, 1982, pp. 26-52. “A utom ated System s L et U s Centralize W arehousing,” M o d e rn M a teria ls H a n d lin g , N ovem b er 19, 1984, pp. 64-68. “Com puter-Integrated System s— T h e B ig Trend in H andling,” M o d ern M a te ria ls H a n d lin g , M ay 20, 1982, pp. 38-45. M o d e rn M a te ria ls H a n d lin g — 1 984 C aseb o o k D ire c to ry Issue, V o l 38 N o. 17. “Com puter-Integrated W arehousing: Trucks A re the K ey at Sh aw ’s,” M o d e rn M a te ria ls H a n d lin g , N ovem ber 5, 1984, pp. 40-44. W hite, John A . “W arehousing in a C hanging W orld ,” 1983 In te r n a tio n a l C on ference on A u to m a tio n a n d W areh ou sin g P roceedings, Institute o f Industrial E ngineers, pp. 3-6. “Com puters T ake C ontrol in M anufacturing and W arehousing,” M o d ern M a te ria ls H a n d lin g , N ovem ber 19, 1984, pp. 46-53. W hite, John A . and M ichael A . M ullens. “M anagem ent Support S y s tems for W arehousing,” in A n n u a l C on ference P roceedings, T h e N a tional C ouncil o f Physical Distribution M anagem ent, 1984, pp. 558-566. “G rocery W arehousing: T h e Jobs that Trucks Can D o ,” M ode rn M a teria ls H a n d lin g , February 6, 1984, pp. 54-61. 46 Other BLS Publications on Technological Change pact on productivity, employment, and occupations. Bulletins still in print may be purchased from the Su perintendent of Documents, Washington, D.C. 20402, or from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Publications Sales Center, P.O. Box 2145, Chicago, 111. 60690. Outof-print publications are available at many public and school libraries and at Government depository librar ies. Publications marked with an asterisk (*) also are available on microfiche and in paper copy from the National Technical Information Service, U.S. Depart ment of Commerce, 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, Va. 22161. Technological Change and Its Labor Impact in Five Energy Industries* Bulletin 2005, 1979), 64 pp. Out of print. Appraises major technological changes emerging in meat products, foundries, metalworking machinery, and electrical and electronic equipment and discusses their current and potential impact on productivity, employ ment, and occupations. Technology, Productivity, a n d L a b o r in the B itum inous C o a l Industry, 1950-79* (Bulletin 2072, 1981), 69 pp. Out of print. Chartbook with tables and text; appraises some of the major structural and technological changes in the bituminious coal industry and their impact on labor. Technology a n d Its Im p a ct on L a b o r in F our Industries (Bulletin 2242, 1986), 46 pp. Price $2.75. Appraises major technological changes emerging in tires, aluminum, aerospace, and banking and discusses their current and potential impact on productivity, em ployment, and occupations. Technology a n d L a b o r in Five Industries* (Bulletin 2033, 1979), 50 pp. Out of print. Appraises major technological changes emerging in bakery products, concrete, air transportation, telephone communication, and insurance and discusses their cur rent and potential impact on productivity, employment, and occupations. The Im p a ct o f Technology on L a b o r in F our Industries (Bulletin 2228, 1985), 49 pp. Price $2.25. Appraises major technological changes emerging in textiles, paper and paperboard, steel, and motor vehi cles and discusses their current and potential impact on productivity, employment, and occupations. Technological Change a n d Its L a b o r Im p a ct in Five E nergy Industries* (Bulletin 2005, 1979), 64 pp. Out of Technological Change a n d Its L a b o r Im p a ct in F our Industries (Bulletin 2182, 1984), 44 pp. Price $2. print. Appraises major technological changes emerging in coal mining, oil and gas extraction, petroleum refining, petroleum pipline transportation, and electric and gas utilities and discusses their current and potential impact on productivity, employment, and occupations. Appraises major technological changes emerging in hosiery, folding paperboard boxes, metal cans, and laun dry and cleaning and discusses their current and poten tial impact on productivity, employment, and occupations. The Im p a ct o f Technology on L a b o r in Five Industries Technological Change a n d Its L a b o r Im p a ct in Five Industries* (Bulletin 1961, 1977), 56 pp. Out of print. (Bulletin 2137, 1982), 60 pp. Out of print. Appraises major technological changes emerging in printing and publishing, water transportation, copper ore mining, fabricated structural metal, and intercity trucking and discusses their current and potential im ☆ U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1987 - 181-519 - 814/54443 Appraises major technological changes emerging in apparel, footwear, motor vehicles, railroads, and retail trade and discusses their current and potential impact on productivity, employment, and occupations. 47 Productivity Reports □ from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Updates through 1984 indexes of output per employee hour for the industries currently included in the U.S. Government’s program of productivity measurement. Data are presented for 137 industries. Productivity Measures for Selected Industries, 1958-84 Bulletin 2256 295 pages □ 104 pages How to pay Price $5.00 Publications are available from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402, or the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Publications Sales Center, P.O. Box 2145, Chicago, III. 60690. □ Enclosed is a check or money order payable tp Superintendent of Documents. D Charge to my GPO Account No___________________________________ □ Charge to my * Account No. Expiration date □ Charge to my * Account No. Expiration date •Available only on orders sent directly to Superintendent of Documents. Name Organization (if applicable) Street address City, State Zip Code Price $14.00 Charts, tables, and GPO Stock No. text portray long029-001 -02835-1 term trends in manufacturing output, employment, productivity, related economic indicators, and, wherever possible, comparable international data. 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