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Simon Potter

Money Marketeers, April 15, 2015

Figure 1
Projected Path of Reserve Balances
USD, trillions
3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

Historical values

0.0
2012

2013

2014

Projections (rounded)

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Historical values include reserves, RRP open market operations, and term deposits.
Source: FRBNY staff projections (December 2014).

Figure 2
Overnight Interest Rates
Percent
0.3

Treasuries - DTCC GCF Repo Index®
Fed funds effective rate
Rate of interest on excess reserves
ON RRP offering rate

0.25

0.2

0.15

0.1

0.05

0
2013

2014

2015

Five-day moving averages except for ON RRP offering rate.
Sources: Federal Reserve, The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation.

1

Simon Potter

Money Marketeers, April 15, 2015

Figure 3
Cumulative Distribution of Overnight Fed Funds Volumes during Rate Test, by Rate
ON RRP offering rate = 5 bps (pre-test)
ON RRP offering rate = 7 bps (test period)
ON RRP offering rate = 10 bps (test period)

Percent of Volumes
100

80

60

40

20

0
0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08
Rate (%)

0.10

0.12

0.14

Pre-test period captures rate distributions in October 2014. Test period for an ON RRP offering rate of 7 basis points was
November 17 to November 28, 2014, and for a rate of 10 basis points was December 1 to December 12, 2014.
Source: Federal Reserve (FR 2420).

Figure 4
Cumulative Distribution of Overnight Fed Funds Volumes before and after Rate Test,
by Rate
ON RRP offering rate = 5 bps (pre-test)
ON RRP offering rate = 5 bps (post-test)

Percent of Volumes
100

80

60

40

20

0
0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08
Rate (%)

0.10

0.12

0.14

Pre-test period captures rate distributions in October 2014. Post-test period captures rate distributions from December
15, 2014, through March 2015.

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Simon Potter

Money Marketeers, April 15, 2015

Figure 5
Distribution of Rates on Overnight Fed Funds Transactions
90th percentile
Median
10th percentile

Percent
0.14

0.12

0.10

0.08

0.06

0.04

0.02

0.00
Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Volume weighted. Five-day moving averages.
Source: Federal Reserve (FR 2420).

Figure 6
Reverse Repos Outstanding
USD, billions

ON RRPs
Term RRPs

400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Sep-13

Dec-13

Mar-14

Jun-14

Sep-14

Dec-14

Mar-15

Temporary open market operations only.
Source: FRBNY.

3

Simon Potter

Money Marketeers, April 15, 2015

Figure 7
Overnight Fed Funds Volumes Reported through FR 2420
USD, billions
70

60

50

40

30
Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Five-day moving average.
Source: Federal Reserve (FR 2420).

4