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I
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
...
THE LEGACY OF THE 1980s
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Index, 1987=100
120
Trillions of 1982 dollars
5
4
80
3
2
40
1
0
0
1948
~.L-.&...i.llaJ..L.....-.L....a-L.IL...L..L.JL...L..L.J.__.__.~
1948
'54
'60
'66
'72
'78
'84
'90
Millions
120
'54
'60
'66
'72
'78
'84
'90
'72
'78
'84
'90
Percent change from year ago
16
12
90
8
4
60
0
30
1948
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
-4
' - - - L . . I . . L l a J . . L . ~ . - - . & . .................................-..&..1-
'54
'60
'66
'72
'78
'84
'90
1948
'54
'60
'66
Index, 198204=100
130
U.S.
10
New England
120
Millions of units
12
8
6
110
4
100
2
0
90
1983 '84
'85
'86
'87
'88
'89
1982
'90
'84
Index, 198204=100
200
Billions of 1987 dollars
500
180
400
'86
'88
'90
Public
160
300
140
120
100
100
80
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
rivate
esidential
200
1983 ~4
~5
~6
'87
'88
~9
~o
0
1982
'84
'86
'88
'90
Percent of GNP
8
Billions of dollars
200
0
4
-200
0
-400
-4
-600
-8
1948
'54
'60
'66
'72
'78
'84
'90
1978
18
::
40
1971
'80
'82
Percent of disposable income
20
Percent
100
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
-800
'74
'77
'80
'83
'86
'89
'84
'86
'88
,~r
.:~~
10 f 't t t t t t t t t I I I I I I It I It I I I I I It I I I I I
1959
'65
'71
'77
'83
'89
7
.
.
4!1-I~;l{,~~9~;,;;.~~,~ng,,~ !. ~Jl?l!l~!lf;~lll~,~.iji,lt~~tN~lmIJ),,,~~;:~~.~i<;,~~~$::+,.
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Percent of GNP
4
Gross domestic purchases as a percent of GNP
104
102
100
98
-2
96
1972
'75
'78
'81
'84
'87
1972
'90
'75
'78
'81
'84
'87
'80
'83
'86
'90
Percent of GNP
Percent of total debt outstanding
8
11
9
7
5
1972
'75
'78
'81
'84
'87
'90
3
1971
'74
'77
'89
g
Index, March 1973=100
175
150
125
100
-4
75
1984
'85
'86
'87
Billions of dollars, annual rate
200
100
0 ... ..........:·=,.:.: .. :..
'88
'89
Foreign
capital inflow
1986
'90
~-
: • ❖ ;:(❖:-:y<,•;,;,•,g:-· Jf:~O~l,i__,_:·
'88
'89
'90
Billions of dollars, annual rate
150
.e-11-=~·=::t
-~~~:~·
'87
·=:\%=,b
120
90
---
60
Current account
balance
-100
-200
1960
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
'66
'72
'78
'84
'90H1
'66
'72
'78
'84
'90H1
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
q
Percent of real GNP
Percent of real GNP
8
75
6
50
4
25
2
0
1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
0
1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
JD
1990: A YEAR OF TRANSITION
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Billions of dollars, annual rate
Percent of disposable income
300
20
Debt instruments
-200
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
1976 '78
'80
'82
'84
'86
'88 '90H1
12
1976 '78
'80
'82
'84
'86
'88
'90
1990 -- international adjustment proceeding
Real net exports and trade weighted dollar
Imports and exports of goods and services
billions of 1982 dollars
billions of 1982 dollars
index, March 1973=100
(V')To-----------------,-175
II
Tracie-weighted dollar
.-.
.,. '.
(right scale)
150
125
-100
Net exports
(left scale)
........
Imports
.,,
II
.,,
•
, ....•'
.
.,··.,
..-·····-·-··
••
.
.•,.•
••~••
II
..
~
#
-200830.a..-..1--840-1--850-1-860...--1-87__
0__
1 _880
.........
1_8_90_1___,900....._,1_~ 75
1
8401
8501
8601
8701
Average U.S. productivity growth
Merchandise trade balance
percent annual rate
billions of dollars
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
.,······-..
8801
8901
9001
.. ...,
......
..,
····-·
.
excluding imported
•.., • • ~ petroleum products
-100
Total
-200 75 76 77 78 79 80 81
"1990: average of first 3 quarters
82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90•
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Billions of dollars
Percent of GNP
250
25
200
150
100
50
0
1970
'74
'78
'82
'86
'90
16
1970
'74
Billions of dollars
Billions of dollars
160
400
~ ~~~'ciions
120
;e~
80
40
0
1991
1992
1993
1994
Fiscal year
1995
'78
'82
'86
'90
Fiscal year
Fiscal year
300
Sep.'90
baseline
200
1
f
After budget
package
100
Revenue
increases
0
-100
1989
'90
•oMB estimates.
'91 *
'92*
Fiscal year
'93*
'94*
'95*
THE 1990 AND 1991 OUTLOOK
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
index, 1966=100
100
index, 1982=100
155
90
145
:~."::#%
~ ~,.1~«~~¾.~~ff'\
~
~
~ :,»
~ - , /·
135
•:
/
.
/
,
80
70
.
$
125
1986
60
'87
'88
'89
'90
1986
'87
'88
'89
'90
'89
'90
Index
3,000
percent
70
60
2,500
50
2,000
40
1,500
30
1986
'87
'88
'89
'90
1986
'87
'88
index, 1987=100
115
Millions
115
110
110
105
105
100
100
95
95 ________________...._____________
90
1986
'87
'88
'89
1986
'90
'87
'88
'89
'90
Millions of units
12
Billions of 1982 dollars
500
10
450
6
400
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
~
_ _...___ _,___ _,___ _____.....__ ___.
1986
'87
'88
'89
'90
4 ....____.....___________.______.____
....,J
1986
'87
'88
'89
'90
Real activity relatively well balanced
Consumer spending
Foreign trade contribution to GNP
trillions of 1982 dollars
billions of 1982 dollars
3--------------------
50-r---------------------
Goods
Services
1986
1987
• First 3 quarters of 1990 st an annual rate.
• First 3 quarters of 1990 st an annual rate.
Business fixed investment
Inventory to sales ratio
billions of 1982 doHsrs
ratio
Structures
Equipment
1986
1987
1988
• First 3 quarters of 1990 st an annual rate.
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
1989
1990•
1988
1989
1990•
/)
I
Percent change
6
4
Percent change, annual rate
3
2
1
0
v~
,I
1'
2
I
-1
-2
0
-3
1990
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
1991
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Percent change
6
4
2
0
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
THE MONETARY POLICY CHALLENGES
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
..
Percent change from year ago
Percent change from year ago
16
16
12
12
8
8
4
4
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
0
1970
'74
'78
'82
'86
'90
0
1970
'74
'78
'82
'86
'90
WW@
wJl
_£,~
1990 -- some monetary policy considerations
Growth and inflation
Total debt and depository credit extended
percent change from year ago
percent change, annual rate
... .......
.•.
•..
••
....
••
Depository
credh
Oil prices*
Interest rates
dollars per barrel
percent
, ..
.
,.
..•
:,.~
•••
:.
•, I
'· :\ ! ..
t
-·
I
I
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
~••• .'
.,
•
_,•
••
Federal
funds
•. i ~·
87
• West Texas intermecftate crude.
•
.
•• •••
88
89
90
.••
•.
•
~
'•
.
/4;/Z,LJ
._tr
Trillions of 1982 dollars
5
4
1969-90
trend
Average trend growth
3
Percent, annual rate
4
2
3
2
1
0
0
1947-90
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
1947-68 1969-90
1948
'54
'60
'66
'72
'78
'84
'90