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WHAT DO VE DO IN RESEARCH? by Karl R. Bopp Vice President Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia before Federal Reserve Pioneers Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Whittier Room September 29, 1955 Introduction: Deeply honored vhen Qus Kress asked me to speak. I am only - to use an expression that WJD used on Bob Hilkert last year - a half assed Pioneer. let I feel inadequate to the job. As a professional economist I am - and we use big words a psycho-ceramic crack-pot I Usual to have a discussion of the Retirement System and changes in it. On this, I can say only - though it is important - that the System has engaged an independent group of experts to make a thorough stucty of our entire system (Industrial Relations Counsellors) and to make comparisons with other private systems. That study is now in progress. Gus didn't give me a topic, and I have prepared at least half-adozen speeches for this occasion. Speech I - Pioneers suggests taking a long view economic possibilities of our grandchildren Wage and salary receipts 1930 $4 6 billion . 1955 215 " Let them take care of themselves II - Rehash a recent speech III - Developed introductory remarks at Columbia University - a word or two about you as individuals e.g. Charlie Sherman - whiz on finding differences 3/23A ? —? 7/5A8 Out following up his 12/16/18 — > first difference (practicing making a hole in 1 in the dark) Then I found many on whom I had stories, including Charlie, wouldn't be here. - 2 - IV. Lampoon fellow officers e.g. Dick Viigus - Texas trick or treat. Itfs my treat Ernie Hill came 7A/21 - He still has 4 pennies of the first nickel he ever earned. Has 4 1921 pennies in his coin collection - and for a small admission will show them to you. Jim Vergari - watch his weight to predict future of business. Bob Hilkert out with the Boy Scouts lest you think him reacty- to retire. V. Contributions you have made - you are the backbone of the Bank e.g. Olga Matuck - who designed your emblem and who has brought beauty and creative activity to so many Bank people - But would miss many* Then remembered Alex dePutron* s famous conversation with Harold Hat, who is not to be confused with Harry "the Hat" Walker or David "the Hat" Noonen. First opportunity to defend myself. Have to wait a long time in Research for rebuttals but one needs PATIENCE in research What do we do in Research? 1. Why have economic research? Philadelphia National tad First Pennsylvania Co. don*t have 2. We are a central bank - as you know One of our less visible jobs 3. Decisions based on a. b. c. d. e. Hunch Communion with burning bush Impressions Intuition On basis of solid facts - 3 - The Jobs to be done 1. Areas to cover - releases reflect 2. Collection of original data a. Enlisting respondents new firms b. Getting data on time c. Establishing accuracy of raw data - classification 3. Combining individual reports a. Confidentiality of individual reports b. The sample and the universe % change vs. blowup (Literary Digest ended) Bank mergers Philadelphia (metropolitan) center city outlying (securing response) c. d. (Importance of accuracy - Dept, store buyers* salaries U* Releases 5. Interpreting the data Seasonals (Dept. Stores) 6. Analytical research Directed research a contradiction in terms An economist: Textbook, wired for sound Write so people will read! Must be accurate Must sey something 7. Public education a. b. Field meetings Banking schools c. Adult education general ly d. Business Review S. Policy recommendations 9* The morning telephone call 10. Some headaches Dealing with the press Leaning vs. the breezes A final story He always knows when to stop
