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The Shape of the Recovery

.

Charts presented by Joseph Tracy, Executive Vice President
Annual Economic Summit and Outlook 2011
Connecticut Business and Industry Association/MetroHartford Alliance
Hartford, CT
January 7, 2011

Post-Recession Growth Rates
1973-1975 Cycle: 1975Q1 Trough

% Change – AR
10

% Change – AR
10

8

8

6

6

4

4

2

2

0

0
1975Q2

1975Q3

1975Q4

1976Q1

1976Q2

1976Q3

2001 Cycle: 2001Q4 Trough

% Change – AR
10

1976Q4

1977Q1
% Change – AR
10

8

8

6

6

4

4

2

2

0

0
2002Q1

2002Q2

2002Q3

2002Q4

2003Q1

2003Q2

2003Q3

2003Q4

Private Non-Farm Payroll Employment
Millions

Millions

116

116

115

115

114

114

113

113

112

112

111

111

110

110

109

109

108

108

107

107

106
2000

106
2002

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

2004

2006

2008

2010

Unemployment Insurance
4-Week Moving Average

4-Week Moving Average

7000

700

6500

650

6000

600

5500

550

5000
500
4500
450

Initial Claims
(Right Axis)

4000

400

3500

350

3000
Continuing Claims
(Left Axis)

2500
2000
2001

300
250

2002

2003

Source: Department of Labor

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Ratio of Housing Starts to Population
Single-Family Homes
Starts per 1,000,000 people

Starts per 1,000,000 people

7

7

6

6

5

5

4

4

3

3

2

2

1
1985

1
1989

Source: Census Bureau

1993

1997

2001

2005

2009

CoreLogic National Home Price Index
Including Distressed-SA
% Change

% Change

24

16

3
Year to Year
(Left Axis)

2

8

1

0

0
Period to Period
(Right Axis)

-8

-1

-16

-2

-24
2002

-3
2003

2004

Source: CoreLogic/Haver Analytics

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010
Note: Monthly Data

Growing Foreclosure Pipeline:
2,000,000

1,800,000

1,600,000

1,400,000

1,200,000

1,000,000

In progress
Newly initiated

800,000

600,000

400,000

200,000

0
2008 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2009 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2010 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3

Source: OCC & OTS Mortgage Metric Reports

Note: Quarterly Data

Repeat-Sale Home Price Index for Connecticut and USA

Home Price Index (January 2000 = 100)

225

200

175

150

USA

CT
Oct. 2010

125

100

75
Jan 1996

Jan 1998

Jan 2000

Jan 2002

Jan 2004

Jan 2006

Note: Home price index based on repeat sales; includes all transactions.
Source: CoreLogic

Jan 2008

Jan 2010