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The Shape of the Recovery . Charts presented by Joseph Tracy, Executive Vice President Annual Economic Summit and Outlook 2011 Connecticut Business and Industry Association/MetroHartford Alliance Hartford, CT January 7, 2011 Post-Recession Growth Rates 1973-1975 Cycle: 1975Q1 Trough % Change – AR 10 % Change – AR 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 1975Q2 1975Q3 1975Q4 1976Q1 1976Q2 1976Q3 2001 Cycle: 2001Q4 Trough % Change – AR 10 1976Q4 1977Q1 % Change – AR 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 2002Q1 2002Q2 2002Q3 2002Q4 2003Q1 2003Q2 2003Q3 2003Q4 Private Non-Farm Payroll Employment Millions Millions 116 116 115 115 114 114 113 113 112 112 111 111 110 110 109 109 108 108 107 107 106 2000 106 2002 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 2004 2006 2008 2010 Unemployment Insurance 4-Week Moving Average 4-Week Moving Average 7000 700 6500 650 6000 600 5500 550 5000 500 4500 450 Initial Claims (Right Axis) 4000 400 3500 350 3000 Continuing Claims (Left Axis) 2500 2000 2001 300 250 2002 2003 Source: Department of Labor 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Ratio of Housing Starts to Population Single-Family Homes Starts per 1,000,000 people Starts per 1,000,000 people 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1985 1 1989 Source: Census Bureau 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 CoreLogic National Home Price Index Including Distressed-SA % Change % Change 24 16 3 Year to Year (Left Axis) 2 8 1 0 0 Period to Period (Right Axis) -8 -1 -16 -2 -24 2002 -3 2003 2004 Source: CoreLogic/Haver Analytics 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Note: Monthly Data Growing Foreclosure Pipeline: 2,000,000 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 In progress Newly initiated 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 2008 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2009 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2010 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 Source: OCC & OTS Mortgage Metric Reports Note: Quarterly Data Repeat-Sale Home Price Index for Connecticut and USA Home Price Index (January 2000 = 100) 225 200 175 150 USA CT Oct. 2010 125 100 75 Jan 1996 Jan 1998 Jan 2000 Jan 2002 Jan 2004 Jan 2006 Note: Home price index based on repeat sales; includes all transactions. Source: CoreLogic Jan 2008 Jan 2010