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ECONOMIC POLICIES FOR A PROSPEROUS 1990s ECONOMICS POLICIES FOR THE 1990s These notes were used by Jerry Jordan for speeches on the following dates: March 5, 1993 April 13, 1993 April 15, 1993 May 4, 1993 May 10, 1993 June 25, 1993 Economic Policies for a Prosperous 1990s Bicoastal economy— 1980s vs now Sm indirect bit of evidence— Easter Sunday N.Y. Times --Houskeeping Perspective 13-14 years ago internationally & domestically -falling apart -"dunkirk Memorandum" (retreat in the face of superior forces) International— 197 9 Sandinistas, Angola, Iran, Afganistan Domestic inflation, Unemployment, interest rates, $ forex, Stock mkt NOW . -Cold war over -articles and conferences: "Policies for a One Super Power World" Germany; Cold War: Japan; French election 70 years, not 45 years Contest of Ideas: -democracy and capitalism vs -dictatorship and socialism Economic and Political victory, NOT Military Victory (1917) [debate: whether or not arms race of 80s necessary no debate about whether a strong domestic economy was necessary— it was; whether or not it was sufficient, we will never know] Leadership in the Post-cold war world— Setting the right example demonstration/imitation effect How we w o n : -inflation -marginal tax rates/govt, spending -deregulation -free trade; strong $ Recent Months -equity market -bond market -$ forex mkt New t h i n k i n g : about what used to be called -"Countercyclical Stabilization Policies" -that is, "pump priming" — Rejection of the "Phillips curve" Fed: "Hawks vs Doves" — price stability Role of monetary policy actions after the Gulf War Convential Wisdom about fiscal policies <9 2 0 CURRENT ISSUES NEED FOR STIMULUS 2 Views of reasons for slow recovery after Gulf War (1) poised for rebound - recession caused by "oil shock"; uncertainty related to war; however, - restrictive monetary policy (M2) (M. F., Samuelson, Congress) (2)50 mile "headwinds" Defense Commercial Construction Corporate Debt/LBOs Consumer Debt Banks (credit crunch) S & Ls Monetary policy stimulative - S - 1 interest rates - Ml 3s~¥ / FISCAL PO LICY Old view (Conventional Wisdom until about 1980.) - deficits expansionary (pos. deficit spending multiplier) - Increase spending - Cut taxes - Both ) stimulate ) — • faster growth ) New view - deficits depressing - raise real interest rates - fuel inflation fears (+ .*. inflation premium in nominal i) - government borrowing crowds out private investment Problem: - reducing the deficit means either cutting spending or raising taxes (or both); actions still viewed as depressing, reducing tax-base, worsening the deficit, thus, "low growth trap" Perspective on fiscal problem: 1969,1979,1989,1999 - Johnson/Nixon: - surtax, budget surplus 1969 (20% of GDP) - shift in social/political priorities for 1970s - - C arter: - - cut defense; raise "G reat Society” balance budget at 20% of GDP m i: - defense = 5% (vs. 10% in Viet Nam) - entitlements: 10% (vs 5 1/2% in 1960s) - Reagan 2 Theories: ■ Milton Friedman; spending; tax away revenue - Art Laffer/Jack Kemp; "self-financing tax cut" 1980 Campaign: balance budget at 19% of GDP - while increasing defense 2% points (from 5-7) - would have required reducing entitlements to same share of GDP as 1960; i.e., reverse the "G reat Society" welfare state - by 1989: Full Employment E = 21.7% Deficit = 2.5% R = 19.2% - Clinton: - - raise tax revenue to reduce deficit - lower deficit means lower i - lower i means faster growth non-defense spending continues to rise faster than GDP (incl. $38 billion "unspecified further cuts" in FY 97) - Defense spending assumed to fall (w/o details) to level inadequate to meet payroll, military pensions, current facilities; - implies: - dramatic cuts in personnel/base closings - or, no expenditures on weapons, research and development, etc. INFLATION - currently low, but people expect it to rise - home mortgage refinancing - corp debt issuance - yield curve - consumer/business surveys - Blue Chip forecasts SKEPTICISM - Phillips curve (Sarbanes) - inflation good (Business Week, NY Times) - growth causes inflation - fiscal dominance (deficit) COSTS - high real i, Investment - high expected real tax on capital goods - resources used for inflation hedges - high real wages (ex-post) - high business and consumer debt servicing burdens CURES FED ADMINISTRATION CONGRESS 3/4/93 (JL J)
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