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STUDENT DEBT AND HIGHER EDUCATION FINANCING: A PUBLIC FINANCE PERSPECTIVE Remarks before NACUBO February 5, 2015 Jamie McAndrews Director of Research Chart 1: Non-mortgage balances Billions of Dollars 1200 1100 Billions of Dollars 1200 HELOC Auto Loan Student Loan Credit Card 1100 1000 1000 900 900 800 800 700 700 600 600 500 500 400 400 300 300 200 200 100 100 0 Source: New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel / Equifax 0 Chart 2: Percent Change in Public Institution Net Tuition per Pupil 7 7 6 6 5 5 Bottom third of States in growth of state funding per pupil 4 4 3 3 2 2 All other states 1 1 0 0 2007 -1 Source: State Higher Education Officers 2008 2009 2010 -1 Chart 3: Average Tuition at For-Profits Is Higher Than at Comparable Publics $16,000 Gross Tuition $14,000 For-Profit 2 Years $12,000 $10,000 Public <2 Years $8,000 For-Profit <2 Years $6,000 Public 2 Years $4,000 $2,000 $0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS). Note: Chart depicts average tuition and fees of largest program for <2 year institutions, and average in-state tuition for 2-year institutions. 2012 4 Chart 4: For-Profit Enrollees More Likely to Take Out Student Loans to Finance Education 70% Percent of Students Receiving Subsidized Direct Loans 60% 50% For-Profit 40% 30% 20% Public 10% 0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 Source: National Student Loan Data System (NSLDS) . 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 5 Chart 5: 90+ Day Delinquency Rates Proportion of Total Borrowers 90+ Days Delinquent 40% Proportion of Borrowers in Repayment 90+ Days Delinquent 40% 2004 2008 2012 2004 35% 35% 30% 30% 25% 25% 20% 20% 15% 15% 10% 10% 5% 5% 0% 0% age<30 age 30-49 age 50+ Source: New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel / Equifax all ages age<30 2008 age 30-49 2012 age 50+ all ages Chart 6: Quarterly transition rate of borrowers in repayment from current to delinquent 9% 9% 8% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 2005 2006 2007 Source: New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel / Equifax 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Chart 7: Proportion with Home-Secured Debt at Age 30 Percent 36 34 32 No student loan ages 27-30 30 Have student loan ages 27-30 28 26 24 22 20 18 2003 2004 2005 2006 Source: FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014