View original document

The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.

Modern Recipes for Financial Crises
James McAndrews, for presentation at the University of Iowa
December 4, 2015
The views expressed do not necessarily represent the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of
New York or of the Federal Reserve System.

Banking Crisis Outcomes

Median Outcomes of Banking Crises in Advanced
Economies, 1970-2011
In Percent of
GDP

Output Loss

32.9

Increase in Debt

21.4

Fiscal Costs
In Years

Duration

3.8
3

Source: Laeven & Valencia (2012)

2

Procyclicality of Leverage

Source: Adrian & Shin (2014), updated by the author

3

Leverage Management and VaR

Source: Adrian & Shin (2014)

4

Collateralized Private Money: Boom and Bust
3500
Bil. $
3000
2500

2000
1500
1000
500
0
1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

Directly Placed Commercial Paper, ABS Issuers

Security Repurchase Agreements, Brokers and Dealers
Source: Federal Reserve Board and Haver Analytics
5

Impact of Money Supply and Crises

Source: Krishnamurthy & Vissing-Jorgensen (2015)
6