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Search Site Home > James Bullard, President and CEO > James Bullard - Speeches, Presentations and Commentary > Normalization: A New Approach From the President Key Policy Papers Speeches, Presentations and Commentary Research Papers Media Interviews August 17, 2016 While addressing a research conference in St. Louis on wealth and asset management, President James Bullard explained the reasoning behind the St. Louis Fed’s new approach to near-term U.S. macroeconomic and monetary policy projections. The old narrative assumed that the economy is converging to a single, long-run steady state, with key macroeconomic variables tending toward an average of their past values. In the new narrative, the concept of a single, long-run steady state is abandoned. Instead, there is a set of possible “regimes” that the economy may visit, which are generally viewed as persistent. While switches between regimes are possible, they are not forecastable. Bullard said that the projected policy rate path is the main difference in the new approach: The policy rate under the old narrative would likely rise over the forecast horizon to be consistent with its steady-state value, whereas the policy rate under the new narrative would likely remain essentially at over the forecast horizon to remain consistent with the current regime. Presentation (pdf) | Press Release James Bullard President and Chief Executive O cer Bio Curriculum Vitae Staff Contacts IDEAS/RePEc Pro le Photos Videos Subscribe: Email alerts RSS "Rationally, let it be said in a whisper, experience is certainly worth more than theory." Amerigo Vespucci GENERAL Home About Us Bank Supervision Careers Community Development Economic Education Events Inside the Economy Museum Newsroom On the Economy Blog Open Vault Blog OUR DISTRICT Little Rock Branch Louisville Branch Memphis Branch Agricultural Finance Monitor Housing Market Conditions SELECTED PUBLICATIONS Bridges Economic Synopses Housing Market Perspectives In the Balance Page One Economics The Quarterly Debt Monitor Review Regional Economist ST. LOUIS FED PRESIDENT James Bullard's Website INITIATIVES Center for Household Financial Stability Dialogue with the Fed Federal Banking Regulations FOMC Speak In Plain English - Making Sense of the Federal Reserve Timely Topics Podcasts and Videos DATA AND INFORMATION SERVICES CASSIDI® FRASER® FRED® FRED® Blog GeoFRED® IDEAS FOLLOW THE FED Twitter Facebook YouTube Google Plus Email Subscriptions RSS CONTACT US | LEGAL INFORMATION | PRIVACY NOTICE & POLICY | FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM ONLINE