The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
Search Site Home > Newsroom > St. Louis Fed's Bullard Discusses Five Questions on U.S. Monetary Policy 11/6/2015 ST. LOUIS – Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard on Friday discussed “Five Questions on U.S. Monetary Policy” at the St. Louis Regional Chamber Financial Forum. The questions are pertinent to the discussion of whether the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) should begin to increase the policy rate from near-zero levels. Bullard noted that at its September 2015 meeting, the FOMC did not make such a move, citing global factors. However, “In October, the Committee removed the key sentence For media inquiries contact: Laura Girresch mediainquiries@stls.frb.org O ce: (314) 444-6166 Cell: (314) 348-3639 James Bullard St. Louis Fed President and CEO citing global factors and suggested that the zero interest rate policy could be ended soon, depending on incoming data,” he said. “The market-based probabilities of a near-term end to the zero interest rate policy have increased,” Bullard said, adding, “While any decision will be data dependent, as always, some key questions loom for the FOMC.” Reduced Global Uncertainty Bullard suggested the rst of the ve questions facing the FOMC is, “What are the chances of a hard landing in China?” He noted that last summer concerns grew about China experiencing a severe drop in its economic growth. “The fear developed in nancial markets during August 2015 that China might experience a hard landing; that is, a sharp fall in the growth rate to zero or lower,” he explained. “This, it was feared, might presage additional weakness in emerging markets, and eventually spill over to the U.S.” James Bullard is president and chief executive o cer of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. In these roles, he participates in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and directs the activities of the Federal Reserve’s Eighth District. President's Website Speeches & Presentations Video Appearances Media Interviews However, Bullard pointed out that these concerns dissipated when China’s growth in the third quarter was reported at 6.8 percent and the International Monetary Fund did not meaningfully downgrade the outlook for China’s macroeconomy. In addition, he noted that volatility indexes suggest that the probability of a hard landing has returned to preAugust levels. “The probability of a hard landing in China is no higher today than it was earlier this year,” he concluded. Improved U.S. Financial Conditions Bullard said another question looming for the FOMC is, “Have U.S. nancial market stress indicators worsened substantially?” Regarding nancial conditions in the U.S., Bullard noted that while the China scare drove up U.S. nancial market volatility in August and September, this volatility has Research Papers since abated. He pointed to the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index, which includes components such as volatility measures and interest rate spreads. “The St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index does not show particularly high levels of stress currently,” he said, concluding, “Financial stress today in the U.S. is not particularly high compared to the last ve years.” Cumulative Progress in U.S. Labor Markets Turning to the labor market, Bullard addressed the third key question, “Has the U.S. labor market returned to normal?” Bullard said that the unemployment rate has fallen faster than the FOMC expected, and that nonfarm payroll employment has increased faster than anticipated. “The unemployment rate, at 5.1 percent in September, is within the Committee’s central tendency of the estimate of the longer-run rate,” he said. Bullard noted that roughly 1 million more jobs have been added relative to private sector forecasts as of September 2012, the date of the launch of the FOMC’s third quantitative easing program (QE3). However, “Job creation is expected to slow going forward as the economy continues to normalize,” he noted, adding, “Even with job creation as low as 130,000 per month, the employment-to-population ratio would remain constant.” Another metric for labor market performance is the level of the Federal Reserve Board staff’s labor market conditions index (LMCI), he said, noting that “its value is well above historical norms, indicating excellent labor market health.” Overall, “U.S. labor markets have largely normalized,” Bullard said. In ation Once Oil Prices Stabilize Turning to in ation, Bullard said the next question to be considered is, “What will the headline in ation rate be once the effects of the oil price shock dissipate?” While headline in ation measured from one year ago is very low, Bullard pointed out that this is due in part to the large drop in oil prices that began in mid-2014. “The fall in oil prices has only a one-time in uence on the year-over-year in ation rate,” he said. Bullard then looked at what the in ation rate would be assuming that oil prices stabilize at the current level and that all other prices continue to increase at the same pace as they have so far in 2015. He said that under such a scenario, the headline consumer price index in ation rate at the end of 2016 would be more than 2 percent. “Oil price stabilization likely implies headline in ation will return to 2 percent in the U.S.,” he concluded. The Dollar and Global Policy Divergence Bullard said the fth question encompasses the value of the U.S. dollar: “Will the U.S. dollar continue to gain value against rival currencies?” He noted that the dollar has been relatively strong and has appreciated on a tradeweighted basis since mid-2014. “This has generally been viewed as a drag on U.S. economic growth during 2015. A key question is whether the dollar will continue to strengthen over coming quarters or not,” he said. He then explained that since “foreign exchange markets are forward-looking and foresee most or all systematic movements in economies, including predictable policy movements,” only unexpected developments could cause further sharp movements. He cited as an example how the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing (QE), a key unexpected event in 2014, drove the euro-dollar exchange rate during 2014. Now, “everything else is already priced in, including expected ECB QE and expected Fed normalization,” he said. “This suggests that the best guess about future movements in this exchange rate are largely unpredictable, and that the best expectation of the future exchange rate is the current level.” “Global policy divergence has already been priced into foreign exchange valuations,” he concluded. GENERAL Home About Us Bank Supervision Careers Community Development Economic Education Events Inside the Economy Museum Newsroom On the Economy Blog Open Vault Blog OUR DISTRICT Little Rock Branch Louisville Branch Memphis Branch Agricultural Finance Monitor Housing Market Conditions SELECTED PUBLICATIONS Bridges Economic Synopses Housing Market Perspectives In the Balance Page One Economics The Quarterly Debt Monitor Review Regional Economist ST. LOUIS FED PRESIDENT James Bullard's Website INITIATIVES Center for Household Financial Stability Dialogue with the Fed Federal Banking Regulations FOMC Speak In Plain English - Making Sense of the Federal Reserve Timely Topics Podcasts and Videos DATA AND INFORMATION SERVICES CASSIDI® FRASER® FRED® FRED® Blog GeoFRED® IDEAS FOLLOW THE FED Twitter Facebook YouTube Google Plus Email Subscriptions RSS CONTACT US | LEGAL INFORMATION | PRIVACY NOTICE & POLICY | FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM ONLINE