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Home > Former President Jim Bullard > Speeches, Presentations and Commentary

From the President

Bullard Discusses Economic Outlook, In�ation during
Virtual Conference
September 18, 2020

The Industrial Innovation Path to Economic Recovery from …

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard discussed his outlook for U.S. GDP growth and
unemployment, the Fed's move to �exible average in�ation targeting, and the possibility of
seeing more in�ation in the future than before the pandemic. He spoke at a virtual
conference hosted by the Boeing Center for Supply Chain Innovation at Washington
University in St. Louis.
Bullard noted that the unemployment rate declined dramatically from double-digit levels to
8.4% as of the last jobs report, which was for August. He said that he has penciled in an
unemployment rate of 6.5% for the December jobs report. He also noted that real GDP
growth in the third quarter looks like it'll be about 30% at an annual rate, which would be the
biggest growth quarter of all time in the U.S.
Bullard also explained what �exible average in�ation targeting means at a practical level.
When in�ation runs below target for a while, the central bank would make up for that by

allowing in�ation to run above target for a while, thereby hitting the 2% in�ation target on
average, he noted. While in�ation has mostly been below target since 2012, he said the U.S.
may start to see some in�ation in the future from several sources.
Bullard also discussed the increase in federal debt as a result of pandemic relief to
households and businesses, Fed actions aimed at keeping the U.S. out of a �nancial crisis on
top of the pandemic, and continued adjustments made by businesses to provide their
products and services safely.
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