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https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis REMARKS BY THE HONORABLE G. WILLIAM MILLER SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY BEFORE THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MANUFACTURERS WASHINGTON, D.C. MARCH 20, 1980 1 I have the pleasure of introducing MR. FISHER: 1 the Honorable G. William Miller, Secretary of the Treasury. 2 best way to obtain the ear of government, is to have business 3 men serve in government. 4 that we at NAM, witnessed our speaker, who became Chairman 5 of the Federal Reserve Board in March, 1978, and Secretary 6 of the Treasury in August of 1979. 7 Th And, so it is with great pleasure His business credentials are impressive. He joined 8 Textron, Incorporated, in 1956; and subsequently became the 9 Vice President, President,•Chief Executive Officer, and finally 10 Chairman and Chief Executive Officer in 1974. 11 Director of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, and on the 12 Boards of several major corporations. 13 Business Council, the Business Roundtable, he was Chairman of 14 of the Conference Board, and Chairman of the National Alliance 15 of Businessmen. 16 He served as a He was a member of the Our speaker received his Bachelor’s Degree in Marine 17 Engineering from the U. S. Coast Guard Academy, and served as 18 a Coast Guard Officer in the Tar East and on the West Coast 19 of the United States. 20 University of California School of Law at Berkley, and joined 21 22 23 24 He received his law degree from the the law firm later of Chrovti, Swain/, and Moore, in New York, before moving on to Textron. I was just discussing with Bill that this must have been a great shock to his thinking process to move out of the 25 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis HEAL R. GROSS COURT REPORTERS AND TRANSCRIBERS 1330 VERMONT AVENUE. NW (202) 234-4433 WASHINGTON. D.C. 20005 (301) 261-4445 2 ( 1 world of lawyers into the world of business, because, if 2 there is any problem I have in my business career, it is 3 arguing with lawyers. 4 He has devoted much time, effort and talent to And, as Chairman of the President’s Committee 5 public service. 6 to help, through industry, retaining an employment. 7 Chairman of the U. S. Industrial Payroll Savings Bond Com 8 mittee, Co-Chairman of the U.S.-U.S.S.R Trade and Economic 9 Council, and the Polish Economic Council; and as a member of 10 numerous other boards and commissions. 11 12 And as The NAM is honored and pleased to welcome our speaker, Secretary of the Treasury, G. William Miller. (Applause) ( 14 MR. MILLER; Thank you very much, John. I had the 15 pleasure of addressing your meeting last year, that time at 16 breakfast. 17 lunch, or whether you just can't face the day on this subject, 18 and you wanted to be sure to get through a hearty lunch before 19 we discussed it; but I almost could repeat the speech that I 20 made last year, and I may do that; since very few of you ^21 I don’t know whether inflation has elevated me to probably remember it, and I kept the notes and/are convenient 22 The problem does persist, and inflation is indeed ( 23 our most serious problem, certainly it must be the most 24 serious problem for you in business, and it is the most 25 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NEAL R. GROSS COURT REPORTERS AND TRANSCRIBERS 1330 VERMONT AVENUE, NW (202) 234-4433 WASHINGTON, D.C. 20005 (301) 261-4445 3 1 serious problem for the entire nation. I’ve been involved now in government now for two 2 ^3 years. And over this entire two years, I’ve been Grappling 4 with this issue, first at the Federal Reserve, and now at the'. 5 Treasury. 6 the subject that inflation has built up over a long period of 7 time; it's not just a recent phenomenon, it goes back for 8 some fifteen years. 9 it's become deeply ingrained in our system. It's very clear with all of us who have dealt with And because it's built up for a long time, It is going to 10 take a very intense effort if we are to bring it out of our 11 economic system, indeed. In these two years, in one way or another, I’ve 12 13 been involved in trying to structure a comprehensive strategy 14 to deal with inflation. 15 a board array of policies that would help us wage and win a 16 war against inflation. 17 to put in place policies which attack the fundamentals and 18 not just the symptoms of this dreadful disease. 19 tick off a few of the very fundamental policies that we have 20 been pursuing; and then come back to some of the things that 21 we are now undertaking and some of the implications. Z22 To marshall a board base of policies, And in doing so, we've been endeavoring The first is a new additude about And let me restraint 23 For too long, the nation has lived beyond it’s means, and year 24 after year, built up deficits. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Since the last time the United States had a balanced budget, we have increased the national NEAL R GROSS COURT REPORTERS AND TRANSCRIBERS 1330 VERMONT AVENUE. NW (202) 234*4433 WASHINGTON. D.C. 20005 (301) 261*4445 4 1 debt by over one half trillion dollars. v/2 SecondLYimportant policy is to impose monetary 3 discipline to wind down the growth, the rate of the growth 4 of money and credit, so that we relate our capacity to buy 5 with our capacity to produce. 6 Third is to seek voluntary cooperation in wage and 7 price moderation until the more fundamental policies can take 8 hold. 9 10 s/ll 12 13 Fourth is to assure a stable dollar, and to bring our international accounts into balance, which we've done, if you noticed the report that was released this morning!-/ 1979 current account was approximately in balance following a 14 billion dollar deficit in 1978. 14 /l5 16 17 18 19 Fifth is to deal with the energy issue. else may be the causes of inflation, the fact^that in the decade of the 70's, oil went up over 1,000 percent in price, and has worked it's way into every cost of every business. It's a fundamental problem that we must address and must re solve if we are to win the war. 20 21 22 Whatever Sixth, we must intensify our efforts to reduce the regulatory burden which has inteferred with the process of creativity and productivity essential to win the war. Z 23 / 24 25 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NEAL R GROSS COURT REPORTERS AND TRANSCRIBERS 1330 VERMONT AVENUE, NW (202) 234-4433 WASHINGTON, D.C. 20005 (301) 261-4445 5 1 2 3 tutions, to the strengthening the market system itself, to addressing the problem of productivity. 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Those that go to financial insti problems of our economy. The war against inflation, is by it’s very nature, It must be pursued over considerable time. dynamic. involve a continuing concentration of effort. to unpredictable changes. It must It must adapt I've heard many people say that we should announce an anti-inflation program that will take care of it. But in waging a total war against inflation, we must be prepared not only to muster an array of policies, we must be prepared not only to field an army to deal with the issue, but we must be prepared to carry on the campaign, to take the offensive, to adjust our tactics to the circumstance, to deal with the unexpected and the unpredictable, and to be able to take setbacks from time without relenting in our determination to continue and to persist. 17 We must be able to deal with events in the world 18 that have impacted us adversely in recent months. First the 19 change of government in Iran set off a series of events, that 20 led to the largest increase in oil prices that have ever taken 21 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis place since oil had been discovered. In 1979, oil prices went up 125 percent, some 18 dollars a barrel, more than the price of oil had grown since it had first been discovered. And that has had an enormous impact upon the war we are waging. NEAL R. GROSS COURT REPORTERS AND TRANSCRIBERS 1330 VERMONT AVENUE. NW (202) 234-4433 WASHINGTON. D.C. 20005 (301) 261-4445 6 1 We must also be able to cope with events such as 2 Afhganistan, which has called upon us to adjust some of our 3 own economic and military policies to counter that particular 4 threat. 5 We must, in waging the war, be able to respond to 6 domestic trends. 7 good evidence of how our economy behaves in a period of high 8 sustained inflation in peacetime, because we have never ex 9 perienced it and we have no data base. We do not have, in econometric models, any So we cannot predict 10 behavior patterns of consumers or businesses or government, 11 but we've got to be able to be willing to monitor and to ad 12 just as these behaviorial patterns begin to asert themselves. 13 We must be willing to deal with the phenomonom of greater 14 spending and less saving that has seen to have been the re 15 sponse of our system to inflation. 16 17 18 19 20 21 Since the budget of 1981 was first submitted last January, since it was formulated in December, we've had a number of substantial changes. mentioned, some others. 24 Let me just tick off a few of the changes since we prepared the budget and the economic program last December. 22 23 Somewhat along the lines I've First, the inflation indicators have shown acceler ation. We've been, all of us, somewhat surprised with'the degree to which the oil price increases are now beginning to 25 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NEAL R. GROSS COURT REPORTERS AND TRANSCRIBERS 1330 VERMONT AVENUE, NW (202) 234-4433 WASHINGTON, D.C. 20005 (301) 261*4445 7 1 work their way into all prices, and into the structure of our 2 economy. 3 phenomenon. 4 indexes, have jumped up. 5 In the United Kingdom, in Japan, in Italy; in the last two 6 months, the wholesale prices are in excess of an annual rate 7 of 25 percent in those countries. 8 in the United States. 9 forceful for historic reasons in fighting inflation, the This is a worldwide phenomenon, not just a U.S. Our wholesale price indexes, our consumer price But so have they in other nations. So it isn’t just happening And in Germany, which has been the most 10 wholesale price index for the last two months has been over 11 13 percent. 12 the world, in a very dangerous pattern. 13 So here we're seeing this begin to spread through But the response of consumers to the circumstances 14 has been to spend even more, and to save even less. 15 seen the saving rate drop in the last two months to about 16 three percent, which is the lowest rate since the Korean war; 17 and is indeed, of great concern. 18 of acquiring goods, spending now, and letting the future take 19 care of itself, a dangereous trend. 20 changed in this period. 21 dicting a recession, starting early in the year. 22 of a recession, economic activity is continuing at a relatively 23 high level, except in housing and autos. 24 because of this pattern of behavior across the economy, of We’ve Because it shows a psychology Economic activity has All economist’s last fall were pre But instead And this is partly 25 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NEAL R GROSS COURT REPORTERS AND TRANSCRIBERS 1330 VERMONT AVENUE, NW (202) 234-4433 WASHINGTON, D.C 20005 (301) 261-4445 8 1 spending rather than saving. 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 This whole atmosphere of change also led many people to question whether Congress would be able to respond to the President’s budget, and whether they would dispose of it by approving the levels of spending and taxing that had been included. 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 would expand. Now in the face of these changes in economic outlook in activity in the economy, in the behaviorial patterns of businesses and individuals, and the expectation as to the budget; it's been necessary for us to re-examine and to inten sify the application of our fundamental policies. 20 intensify the disciplines that go with those policies to be sure that they are enforced, and that we are successful in driving them through to implimentation. We have, therefore, the President 4at announced last Friday, a series of new actions to intensify the discipline of our economic policies in five major areas. 21 22 It's not that we need to change those policies, it's that we need to 18 19 In fact, there was a wide-spread belief that the budget might indeed get out of control and that the defici 9 10 First is to reinforce and to add additional restrain : to our j^woical policy, seeking to establish a balanced budget 23 in F. Y. 1981. 24 Second, to impose additional restraint on the 25 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis • NEAL R. GROSS COURT REPORTERS AND TRANSCRIBERS 1330 VERMONT AVENUE, NW (202) 234*4433 WASHINGTON, D.C. 20005 (301) 261*4445 9 1 availability of credit. 2 Third, to strengthen the voluntary wage and price 3 program. 4 Fourth, to seek greater energy conservation to 5 reduce our dependence upon imported oil. 6 And fifth, to give greater attention to the 7 structural changes to encourage a more efficient and more 8 productive economy. 9 10 Let me start with the budget. The budget that we will propose for F. Y. 81 will be in balance. 11 It will be the first balanced budget in 12 years, and only the 12 second one in 21 years. This is not a budget exercise in 13 which the Administration has suddenly made a few changes 14 and intends to send up a few supplements to Congress. 15 effort to achieve, in fact, a balanced budget, has been 16 pursued through a unique and historic process. 17 18 The For several weeks, we consulted intensely with members of Congress of both parties. We spent over eight straight day’s meeting Z19 in session with leadership of the Congress^ never done 20 21 22 23 24 beforein which members of the House and the Senate and the Administration sat down to develop committments, committments not only would we propose but we would deliver a balanced budget. And it is that process which adds a new dimension to the outlet for the budget and to it’s 25 HEAL R. GROSS COURT REPORTERS AND TRANSCRIBERS 1330 VERMONT AVENUE, NW (202) 234*4433 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis WASHINGTON. D.C 10005 10 1 impact upon expectations and it’s impact upon our economic 2 progress. 3 The leadership of the Congress, as a result of 4 this, has committed to do several things. 5 far more attention and committment to achieving the 5.6 6 billion dollars of spending cuts that we had already sub 7 mitted in January. 8 cuts of 13 or 14 or more in order to assure that we would 9 bring the budget into balance through spending reductions, "io One, to give And second, to achieve further spending and only through spending reductions. And third, a commit/! 11 ment to maintain the discipline so that we will, in the 12 face of changing conditions, be able to reinforce and 13 reassure that we have the balanced budget for 1981 14 We are in substantial agreement with Congress 15 ional leadership on the budget. 16 to mark up their budget resolutions along these lines. 17 But in the meantime, the Office of Management and Budget 18 has 25,000 lined items to process, and it has to go through 19 all the departments of government to lock up the details 20 and to be sure that our economic assumptions and feedbacks 21 have been developed, and it will take them, probably until 22 the end of the month, to present the final details of this 23 new budget. 24 And they are proceeding But it will be in balance. The second area is the area of restraint on 25 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NEAL R. GROSS COURT REPORTERS AND TRANSCRIBERS 1330 VERMONT AVENUE, NW (202) 234*4433 WASHINGTON, D.C. 20005 11 ( 1 credit availability. 2 powers under the Credit Control Act of 1969, to operate to 3 constrain expansion of consumer credit as represented by 4 credit cards, overdrafts, revolving credits for consumers. 5 Not to inhibit credit for housing or automotive or durables 6 which are already in a serious downturn, already; but to 7 try to restrain this overspending that has taken on such 8 an importance in the economic profile. 9 The President elected to invoke his Second, the President extended the power of the 10 Federal Reserve to impose credit restraints and reserve 11 requirements on non-member banks, on banks that are not 12 members of the Federal Reserve system. 13 And third, he extended the power of the Federal 14 Reserve to control credit in fields such as money market 15 funds and similar instruments. 16 17 18 19 20 21 The Federal Reserve itself then acted to tighten the reserve requirements for managed liabilities of major banks. And, of course, extended this for the non-member banks under the new authority from the President. And the Federal Reserve also established a voluntary, special credit restraint program, reaching all major financial \/22 ( institutions, that will have as it’s purpose, the ofloirt S23 24 of^ both the rate the growth of credit, and/to be -ouee that the credit needs are met for small businesses, agriculture, 25 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NEAL R. GROSS COURT REPORTERS AND TRANSCRIBERS 1330 VERMONT AVENUE, NW (202) 234*4433 WASHINGTON, D.C. 20005 12 1 and that the concentration of credit is in areas that are 2 useful and productive for the economy. 3 credit restraint area, we have approached this on the 4 point of view of minimum amount of bureaucracy, and the 5 maximum amount of operating on the margin of the areas 6 we need to control. y7 In this whole It's for that reason we did not intro duce restraints on individual credit^ instead, the re 8 straints are upon the aggregate availability of credit in X9 targeted areas; ^/here each enterprise, each financial 10 institution will be free to chose for itself whether it 11 just pays the price for extension of credit by depositing 12 reserves, or whether it exercises it’s own restraint and 13 it's own rationing in order to achieve the best results. 14 So we're leaving the market system to work, but 15 we're putting in effective and powerful restraints that 16 will create motivation to move in a way that is consistent 17 with the national needs. 18 The third area is the wage and price program. 19 And we can repeat every time we speak, because we are 20 committed to it, that we will not have manditory wage and 2\ price control. 22 They don't work, they wifci be inequitable, they would be unfair, they would create distortions in the 23 economy, your businesses would be plaqued with bureaucracy, 24 and you would be having so many troubles in making a your 25 NEAL R. GROSS COURT REPORTERS AND TRANSCRIBERS 1330 VERMONT AVENUE, NW (202) 234-4433 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis WASHINGTON, D.C. 20005 13 decision^ it would impede the vitality and productivity ' 1 2 of the private system which is contrary to the fight 3 against inflation. 4 area to seek the cooperation which we have had from 5 businesses and employee groups and labor, to see that we 6 all exercise evenly, some degree of restraint; so that by 7 sharing some ausperity fairly, we can all gain the benefit 8 of beginning to wind down inflation. 9 But, we will continue in the wage price The fourth area has to do with energy. The 10 President, on his own authority, has imposed a gasoline 11 conservation fee which will apply to imported oil, but 12 which will be allocated so that it results soley in a ten 13 cent fee on gasoline. 14 of any other petroleum product; it will not add to any 15 other aspect of the petroleum industry, it will solely 16 result in a ten cent increase in the price of gasoline 17 which is part of the effort to continue to seek conserva 18 tion in this particular use of energy, which is the one 19 which is the most discretionary and has the most opportunity 20 short term for conservation. 21 added some 60 or 70 cents per gallon tax to gasoline. 22 this means that, with all of the other prior costs of imSc ported oil, that this year we'll be sending some 80 or W- 13 24 This will not increase the price OPEC, in the past year, has And billion U.S. dollars, the wealth of our nation, to foreign 25 NEAL R. GROSS COURT REPORTERS AND TRANSCRIBERS 1330 VERMONT AVENUE. NW (202) 234-4433 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis WASHINGTON. D.C 20005 14 1 producers. 2 we're hoping to reduce the amount of that import, and 3 reduce the American dollars that are sent abroad. 4 particular fee will continue, but we will ask Congress to ^5 By continuing to seek greater conservation, This substitute for it, a regular advfclorum tax that will in 6 corporate the present four cent gasoline tax, plus the 7 new ten cent fee, into a new combined tax that will be a 8 continuing permanent system for seeking this kind of 9 restraint. Let me emphasize, I'm sure you've heard this, 10 but let me say it to you very carefully, this fee will 11 generate revenue. 12 conservation fee will yield some 10 billion dollars in 13 revenue to the federal government. But those funds will 14 not be used to balance the budget. We are going to balance 15 the budget with spending reductions, and with funds that 16 come in from the conservation fee, will be held as surplus, 17 used to reduce the federal debt, or used later, if we 18 accomplish our purposes, to carry out some targeted efforts 19 to improve the economy. 20 will not be used, to balance the budget. 21 In 1981, we expect that the gasoline But they will not be available, The fifth area has to deal with the structural 22 areas of our economy, particularly, to intensify our effort 23 to reduce the regulatory burden. 24 pass as early as possible, the regulatory reform act. We do need support, to 25 NEAL R. GROSS COURT REPORTERS AND TRANSCRIBERS 1330 VERMONT AVENUE, NW (202) 234-4433 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis WASHINGTON, D.C. 20005 We 15 1 do need support to complete the work on the financial 2 institutions reform legislation, which is now through 3 conference and is waiting inactment. 4 regulate trucking and reduce regulation on railroads, 5 communications; and we do need to do all of these things 6 which are difficult to do, have proved to be hard to 7 achieve, but we need support from everyone to speed up 8 this process. 9 demonstrated to the American people that we can deliver We do need to de And, beyond this, when we have actually 10 a balanced budget, in fact, when we've achieved it, when 11 it's been voted, when it's not just a proposal, but is an 12 active law; then we'll be in a position to consider target 13 tax reductions to encourage the saving and the investment 14 which is essential to the longer term improvement of our 15 economy. 16 In the meantime, the most important thing that 17 we can do, individually and collectively, is to give first 18 priority to changing the whole additude about what our 19 government can do in terms of it's own discipline and 20 bring it's budget into balance. 21 we can do for you, and for business, is to do this as a 22 means to restore confidence in the government process and 23 to restore order to financial markets so that more normal 24 credit conditions will make it possible for businesses, The most important thing 25 NEAL R GROSS COURT REPORTERS AND TRANSCRIBERS 1330 VERMONT AVENUE, NW (202) 234*4433 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis WASHINGTON, D.C 20005 16 1 once again, to plan their futures and their investments 2 without the uncertainties that now covers us all. These intensified actions, which we are taking 3 Let no one be mislead about this. 4 are powerful. 5 not yet be apparent, but as the days and the weeks pass, 6 this will become more and more apparent. 7 that is going to bite is the credit restraint. 8 thing that is going to bite is the gasoline conservation 9 fee. It may The first thing The second The third thing that is going to bite is the addi 10 tional fiscal restraint that takes place as we begin to 11 wind down government spending, and government borrowing. 12 Let me just give you one number to put in your mind to show 13 how powerful this will be. 14 from 1980 to 1981, will be 50 billion dollars. 15 duction, from a 39 billion dollar deficit in 1980, to a 16 surplus of 10 or more billion in 1981, if we include the 17 gasoline fee. 18 The swing in our fiscal posture The re That 50 billion dollar swing is the largest 19 swing in nominal dollars that we have ever experienced in 20 our economy. 21 product, it’s among the largest shifts in fiscal posture 22 that we have ever undertaken. 23 government will be reducing, by some 25 billion dollars, 24 it’s own borrowings within the credit market. And in terms of percent of gross national And, in 1981, the federal' 25 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis HEAL R. GROSS COURT REPORTERS AND TRANSCRIBERS 1330 VERMONT AVENUE, NW (202) 234*4433 WASHINGTON, D.C. 20005 And releasin 17 1 some 25 billion dollars to fill the credit needs of the 2 productive, private secter. 3 So these are forceful actions. 4 you that inflation will not disappear immediately. 5 expect disappointing inflation numbers in the weeks and 6 months ahead, because there is already a good deal of this Z7 But let me warn in the pipe line and it cannot be reversed. We can But as these 8 actions begin to bite, the inflationary pressure will 9 abate, 10 the program will begin to deliver a winding down of inflationary forces and expectations. 11 The program will not be without cost or without 12 pain. 13 sacrifice. 14 of industry, you as leaders of your communities and your "15 Everyone will be asked to bear their share of the And, obviously, in that regard, you as leaders nation, are a' critical importance. 16 We need your support to understand this program, and to help us implement it. 17 There is nothing more important for you in the long term 18 than to see that this happens. 19 There is no greater threat to private business than inflation unchecked. And there 20 is nothing more important for your long term vitality, 21 than to wage and to win the war against inflation. 22 We, like you, are committed to the vitalization of American 23 industry, and the first place to start, is to put our house 24 back in order, re-establish the disciplines, and to demon- 25 NEAL R. GROSS COURT REPORTERS ANO TRANSCRIBERS 1330 VERMONT AVENUE, NW (202) 234*4433 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis WASHINGTON, D.C. 20005 18 1 strate that we will control our destiny, and return to 2 that sense of purpose and inovation and vitality, which is S the ultimate strength, not only of our economy, but of our 4 role in the world at large. 5 Thank you very much. y 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 i 17 18 i 19 i 20 21 ii 22 I 23 i I 24 25 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis REMARKS BY THE HONORABLE G. WILLIAM MILLER SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY BEFORE THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MANUFACTURERS WASHINGTON, D.C. MARCH 20, 1980 1 MR. FISHER: I have the pleasure of introducing 1 the Honorable G. William Miller, Secretary of the Treasury. 2 best way to obtain the ear of government, is to have business 3 men serve in government. 4 that we at NAM, witnessed our speaker, who became Chairman 5 of the Federal Reserve Board in March, 1978, and Secretary 6 of the Treasury in August of 1979. 7 Th And, so it is with great pleasure His business credentials are impressive. He joined 8 Textron, Incorporated, in 1956; and subsequently became the 9 Vice President, President, Chief Executive Officer, and finally 10 Chairman and Chief Executive Officer in 1974. 11 Director of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, and on the 12 Boards of several major corporations. 13 Business Council, the Business Roundtable, he was Chairman of 14 of the Conference Board, and Chairman of the National Alliance 15 of Businessmen. 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 He served as a He was a member of the Our speaker received his Bachelor’s Degree in Marine Engineering from the U. S. Coast Guard Academy, and served as a Coast Guard Officer in the Tar East and on the West Coast of the United States. He received his law degree from the University of California School of Law at Berkley, and joined the law firm later of Chrovai, Swain/, and Moore, in New York, before moving on to Textron. I was just discussing with Bill that this must have been a great shock to his thinking process to move out of the 25 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NEAL R GROSS COURT REPORTERS AND TRANSCRIBERS 1330 VERMONT AVENUE. NW (202) 234-4433 WASHINGTON, D.C. 20005 (301) 261*4445 2 1 world of lawyers into the world of business, because, if 2 there is any problem I have in my business career, it is 3 arguing with lawyers. He has devoted much time, effort and talent to 4 5 public service. 6 to help, through industry, retaining an employment. 7 Chairman of the U. S. Industrial Payroll Savings Bond Com 8 mittee, Co-Chairman of the U.S.-U.S.S.R Trade and Economic 9 Council, and the Polish Economic Council; and as a member of 10 And as numerous other boards and commissions. 11 12 And, as Chairman of the President’s Committee The NAM is honored and pleased to welcome our speaker, Secretary of the Treasury, G. William Miller. 13 (Applause) 14 MR. MILLER: Thank you very much, John. I had the 15 pleasure of addressing your meeting last year, that time at 16 breakfast. 17 lunch, or whether you just can’t face the day on this subject, 18 and you wanted to be sure to get through a hearty lunch before 19 we discussed it; but I almost could repeat the speech that I 20 made last year, and I may do that; since very few of you 21 probably remember it, and I kept the notes and are convenient. I don’t know whether inflation has elevated me to -t/L£c,L 22 The problem does persist, and inflation is indeed 23 our most serious problem, certainly it must be the most 24 serious problem for you in business, and it is the most 25 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NEAL R GROSS COURT REPORTERS AND TRANSCRIBERS 1330 VERMONT AVENUE, NW (202) 234-4433 WASHINGTON, D.C. 20005 (301) 261*4445 3 1 serious problem for the entire nation. I’ve been involved now in government now for two 2 ^3 years. And over this entire two years, I've been Grappling 4 with this issue, first at the Federal Reserve, and now at the 5 Treasury. 6 the subject that inflation has built up over a long period of 7 time; it's not just a recent phenomenon, it goes back for 8 some fifteen years. 9 it's become deeply ingrained in our system. It's very clear with all of us who have dealt with And because it's built up for a long time It is going to 10 take a very intense effort if we are to bring it out of our 11 economic system, indeed. In these two years, in one way or another, I've 12 13 been involved in trying to structure a comprehensive strategy 14 to deal with inflation. 15 a board array of policies that would help us wage and win a 16 war against inflation. 17 to put in place policies which attack the fundamentals and 18 not just the symptoms of this dreadful disease. 19 tick off a few of the very fundamental policies that we have 20 been pursuing; and then come back to some of the things that 21 we are now undertaking and some of the implications. ^22 To marshall a board base of policies, And in doing so, we've been endeavorin< And let me The first is a new additude about pfry±ea 1 restraint, 23 For too long, the nation has lived beyond it's means, and year 24 after year, built up deficits. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Since the last time the United States ha^ a balanced budget, we have increased the national NEAL R GROSS COURT REPORTERS AMD TRANSCRIBERS 1330 VERMONT AVENUE, MW (202) 234*4433 WASHINGTON, D.C 20005 (301) 261-4445 4 1 debt by over one half trillion dollars. v4 Second?Yimportant policy is to impose monetary 3 discipline to wind down the growth, the rate of the growth 4 of money and credit, so that we relate our capacity to buy 5 with our capacity to produce. 6 7 8 Third is to seek voluntary cooperation in wage and price moderation until the more fundamental policies can take hold. 9 10 y ii 12 13 Fourth is to assure a stable dollar, and to bring our international accounts into balance, which we've done, if you noticed the report that was released this morning!-? 1979 current account was approximately in balance following a 14 billion dollar deficit in 1978. 14 v/l5 16 17 18 19 Fifth is to deal with the energy issue. else may be the causes of inflation, the fact^that in the decade of the 70's, oil went up over 1,000 percent in price, and has worked it's way into every cost of every business. It's a fundamental problem that we must address and must re solve if we are to win the war. 20 21 22 Sixth, we must intensify our efforts to reduce the regulatory burden which has inteferred with the process of creativity and productivity essential to win the war. Z 23 / 24 Whatever And seven, we need^ and have been endeavocWy to put in place^ policies to address the longer term structural 25 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NEAL R. GROSS COURT REPORTERS AND TRANSCRIBERS 1330 VERMONT AVENUE, NW (202) 234-4433 WASHINGTON, D.C. 20005 (301) 261-4445 5 1 2 3 tutions, to the strengthening the market system itself, to addressing the problem of productivity. 4 5 6 7 8 The war against inflation, is by it's very nature, It must be pursued over considerable time. dynamic. involve a continuing concentration of effort. to unpredictable changes. It must It must adapt I've heard many people say that we should announce an anti-inflation program that will take care 9 of it. 10 Those that go to financial insti problems of our economy. But in waging a total war against inflation, we must be prepared not only to muster an array of policies, we must 11 be prepared not only to field an army to deal with the issue, 12 but we must be prepared to carry on the campaign, to take the 13 14 15 16 offensive, to adjust our tactics to the circumstance, to deal with the unexpected and the unpredictable, and to be able to take setbacks from time without relenting in our determination to continue and to persist. 17 We must be able to deal with events in the world 18 that have impacted us adversely in recent months. First the 19 change of government in Iran set off a series of events, that 20 led to the largest increase in oil prices that have ever taken 21 place since oil had been discovered. In 1979, oil prices went 22 up 125 percent, some 18 dollars a barrel, more than the price 23 of oil had grown since it had first been discovered. And that 24 has had an enormous impact upon the war we are waging. 25 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis HEAL R. GROSS COURT REPORTERS AND TRANSCRIBERS 1330 VERMONT AVENUE, NW (202) 234-4433 WASHINGTON, D.C. 20005 (301) 261-4445 6 1 We must also be able to cope with events such as 2 Afhganistan, which has called upon us to adjust some of our 3 own economic and military policies to counter that particular 4 threat. 5 We must, in waging the war, be able to respond to 6 domestic trends. 7 good evidence of how our economy behaves in a period of high 8 sustained inflation in peacetime, because we have never ex 9 perienced it and we have no data base. We do not have, in econometric models, any So we cannot predict 10 behavior patterns of consumers or businesses or government, 11 but we’ve got to be able to be willing to monitor and to ad 12 just as these behaviorial patterns begin to asert themselves. 13 We must be willing to deal with the phenomonom of greater 14 spending and less saving that has seen to have been the re 15 sponse of our system to inflation. 16 17 18 19 20 21 Since the budget of 1981 was first submitted last January, since it was formulated in December, we've had a number of substantial changes. mentioned, some others. 24 Let me just tick off a few of the changes since we prepared the budget and the economic program last December. 22 23 Somewhat along the lines I've First, the inflation indicators have shown acceler ation. We've been, all of us, somewhat surprised with'the degree to which the oil price increases are now beginning to 25 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NEAL R. GROSS COURT REPORTERS AND TRANSCRIBERS 1330 VERMONT AVENUE, NW (202) 234-4433 WASHINGTON, D.C. 20005 (301) 261-4445 7 1 work their way into all prices, and into the structure of our 2 economy. 3 phenomenon. 4 indexes, have jumped up. 5 In the United Kingdom, in Japan, in Italy; in the last two 6 months, the wholesale prices are in excess of an annual rate 7 of 25 percent in those countries. 8 in the United States. 9 forceful for historic reasons in fighting inflation, the This is a worldwide phenomenon, not just a U.S. Our wholesale price indexes, our consumer price But so have they in other nations. So it isn’t just happening And in Germany, which has been the most 10 wholesale price index for the last two months has been over 11 13 percent. 12 the world, in a very dangerous pattern. 13 So here we’re seeing this begin to spread through But the response of consumers to the circumstances 14 has been to spend even more, and to save even less. 15 seen the saving rate drop in the last two months to about 16 three percent, which is the lowest rate since the Korean war; 17 and is indeed, of great concern. 18 of acquiring goods, spending now, and letting the future take 19 care of itself, a dangereous trend. 20 changed in this period. 21 dicting a recession, starting early in the year. 22 of a recession, economic activity is continuing at a relatively 23 high level, except in housing and autos. 24 because of this pattern of behavior across the economy, of We’ve Because it shows a psychology Economic activity has All economist’s last fall were pre But instead And this is partly 25 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NEAL R GROSS COURT REPORTERS AMD TRANSCRIBERS 1330 VERMONT AVENUE, NW (202) 234-4433 WASHINGTON, D.C 20005 (301) 261-4445 8 1 spending rather than saving. 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 This whole atmosphere of change also led many people to question whether Congress would be able to respond to the President’s budget, and whether they would dispose of it by approving the levels of spending and taxing that had been included. the budget might indeed get out of control and that the defici would expand. 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Now in the face of these changes in economic outlook in activity in the economy, in the behaviorial patterns of businesses and individuals, and the expectation as to the budget; it's been necessary for us to re-examine and to inten sify the application of our fundamental policies. 20 It's not that we need to change those policies, it's that we need to intensify the disciplines that go with those policies to be sure that they are enforced, and that we are successful in driving them through to implimentation. 18 19 In fact, there was a wide-spread belief that "Therefore, the President announced last Friday, a series of new actions to intensify the discipline of our economic policies in five major areas. 21 First is to reinforce and to add additional restraint 22 policy, seeking to establish a balanced budget 23 24 Second, to impose additional restraint on the 25 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NEAL R. GROSS COURT REPORTERS AND TRANSCRIBERS 1330 VERMONT AVENUE. NW (202) 234-4433 WASHINGTON. D.C. 20005 (301) 261-4445 9 1 availability of credit. 2 < Third, to strengthen the voluntary wage and price 3 program. 4 Fourth, to seek greater energy conservation to 5 reduce our dependence upon imported oil. 6 And fifth, to give greater attention to the 7 structural changes to encourage a more efficient and more 8 productive economy. 9 Let me start with the budget. 10 we will propose for F. Y. 81 will be in balance. 11 second one in 21 years. This is not a budget exercise in 13 which the Administration has suddenly made a few changes 14 and intends to send up a few supplements to Congress. 15 effort to achieve, in fact, a balanced budget, has been 16 pursued through a unique and historic process. 17 The For several weeks, we consulted intensely with members of Congress of 18 both parties. Y19 We spent over eight straight day’s meeting in session with leadership of the Congress^ never done ^20 before/f in which members of the House and the Senate and 21 < It will be the first balanced budget in 12 years, and only the 12 ( The budget that the 22 Administration sat down to develop committments, committments not only would we propose but we would deliver 23 a balanced budget. 24 And it is that process which adds a new dimension to the outlet for the budget and to it*s 25 HEAL R GROSS COURT REPORTERS AND TRANSCRIBERS 1330 VERMONT AVENUE, NW (302) 234*4433 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis WASHINGTON. D.C >0005 10 1 impact upon expectations and it’s impact upon our economic 2 progress. 3 The leadership of the Congress, as a result of 4 this, has committed to do several things. 5 far more attention and committment to achieving the 5.6 6 billion dollars of spending cuts that we had already sub 7 mitted in January. 8 cuts of 13 or 14 or more in order to assure that we would 9 bring the budget into balance through spending reductions, xio One, to give And second, to achieve further spending and only through spending reductions. And third, a commits 11 ment to maintain the discipline so that we will, in the 12 face of changing conditions, be able to reinforce and 13 reassure that we have the balanced budget for 1981 14 We are in substantial agreement with Congress 15 ional leadership on the budget. 16 to mark up their budget resolutions along these lines. 17 But in the meantime, the Office of Management and Budget 18 has 25,000 lined items to process, and it has to go through 19 all the departments of government to lock up the details 20 and to be sure that our economic assumptions and feedbacks 21 have been developed, and it will take them, probably until 22 the end of the month, to present the final details of this 23 new budget. 24 And they are proceeding But it will be in balance. The second area is the area of restraint on 25 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NEAL R. GROSS COURT REPORTERS AND TRANSCRIBERS 1330 VERMONT AVENUE, NW (202) 234-4433 WASHINGTON, D.C. 20005 11 1 credit availability. 2 powers under the Credit Control Act of 1969, to operate to 3 constrain expansion of consumer credit as represented by 4 credit cards, overdrafts, revolving credits for consumers. 5 Not to inhibit credit for housing or automotive or durables 6 which are already in a serious downturn, already; but to 7 try to restrain this overspending that has taken on such 8 an importance in the economic profile. 9 The President elected to invoke his Second, the President extended the power of the 10 Federal Reserve to impose credit restraints and reserve 11 requirements on non-member banks, on banks that are not 12 members of the Federal Reserve system. 13 And third, he extended the power of the Federal 14 Reserve to control credit in fields such as money market 15 funds and similar instruments. 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 The Federal Reserve itself then acted to tighten the reserve requirements for managed liabilities of major banks. And, of course, extended this for the non-member banks under the new authority from the President. Federal Reserve also established a voluntary, special credit restraint program, reaching all major financial institutions, that will have as it's purpose, the offort of^ both the rate the growth of credit, and/to be-o are that the credit needs are met for small businesses, agriculture, 25 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis And the NEAL R. GROSS COURT REPORTERS ANO TRANSCRIBERS 1330 VERMONT AVENUE, NW (202) 234-4433 WASHINGTON, D.C. 20005 12 1 and that the concentration of credit is in areas that are 2 useful and productive for the economy. 3 credit restraint area, we have approached this on the 4 point of view of minimum amount of bureaucracy, and the 5 maximum amount of operating on the margin of the areas 6 we need to control. yi In this whole It's for that reason we did not intro duce restraints on individual credit^ instead, the re 8 straints are upon the aggregate availability of credit in X9 targeted areas; ^/here each enterprise, each financial 10 institution will be free to chose for itself whether it 11 just pays the price for extension of credit by depositing 12 reserves, or whether it exercises it’s own restraint and 13 it’s own rationing in order to achieve the best results. 14 So we’re leaving the market system to work, but 15 we’re putting in effective and powerful restraints that 16 will create motivation to move in a way that is consistent 17 with the national needs. 18 The third area is the wage and price program. 19 And we can repeat every time we speak, because we are 20 committed to it, that we will not have manditory wage and y21 price control. 22 They don’t work, they be inequitable, they would be unfair, they would create distortions in the 23 economy, your businesses would be plaqued with bureaucracy, 24 and you would be having so many troubles in making a your 25 HEAL R. GROSS COURT REPORTERS AND TRANSCRIBERS 1330 VERMONT AVENUE, NW (202) 234*4433 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis WASHINGTON, D.C 20005 13 z 1 decision^ it would impede the vitality and productivity 2 of the private system which is contrary to the fight 3 against inflation. 4 area to seek the cooperation which we have had from 5 businesses and employee groups and labor, to see that we 6 all exercise evenly, some degree of restraint; so that by 7 sharing some ausperity fairly, we can all gain the benefit 8 of beginning to wind down inflation. 9 But, we will continue in the wage price The fourth area has to do with energy. The 10 President, on his own authority, has imposed a gasoline 11 conservation fee which will apply to imported oil, but 12 which will be allocated so that it results soley in a ten 13 cent fee on gasoline. 14 of any other petroleum product; it will not add to any 15 other aspect of the petroleum industry, it will solely 16 result in a ten cent increase in the price of gasoline 17 which is part of the effort to continue to seek conserva 18 tion in this particular use of energy, which is the one 19 which is the most discretionary and has the most opportunity 20 short term for conservation. 21 added some 60 or 70 cents per gallon tax to gasoline. 22 23 this means that, with all of the other prior costs of imSc ported oil, that this year we’ll be sending some 80 or W 24 billion U.S. dollars, the wealth of our nation, to foreign This will not increase the price OPEC, in the past year, has 25 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NEAL R. GROSS COURT REPORTERS AND TRANSCRIBERS 1330 VERMONT AVENUE, NW (202) 234*4433 WASHINGTON, D.C. 20005 And 14 1 producers. 2 we’re hoping to reduce the amount of that import, and 3 reduce the American dollars that are sent abroad. 4 particular fee will continue, but we will ask Congress to 5 substitute for it, a regular advfclorum tax that will in 6 corporate the present four cent gasoline tax, plus the 7 new ten cent fee, into a new combined tax that will be a 8 continuing permanent system for seeking this kind of 9 restraint. By continuing to seek greater conservation, This Let me emphasize, I'm sure you've heard this, 10 but let me say it to you very carefully, this fee will 11 generate revenue. 12 conservation fee will yield some 10 billion dollars in 13 revenue to the federal government. But those funds will 14 not be used to balance the budget. We are going to balance 15 the budget with spending reductions, and with funds that 16 come in from the conservation fee, will be held as surplus, 17 used to reduce the federal debt, or used later, if we 18 accomplish our purposes, to carry out some targeted efforts 19 to improve the economy. 20 will not be used, to balance the budget. 21 In 1981, we expect that the gasoline But they will not be available, The fifth area has to deal with the structural 22 areas of our economy, particularly, to intensify our effort 23 to reduce the regulatory burden. 24 pass as early as possible, the regulatory reform act. We do need support, to 25 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NEAL R GROSS COURT REPORTERS AND TRANSCRIBERS 1330 VERMONT AVENUE. NW (202) 234-4433 WASHINGTON. D.C 20005 We 15 1 do need support to complete the work on the financial 2 institutions reform legislation, which is now through 3 conference and is waiting inactment. 4 regulate trucking and reduce regulation on railroads, 5 communications; and we do need to do all of these things 6 which are difficult to do, have proved to be hard to 7 achieve, but we need support from everyone to speed up 8 this process. 9 demonstrated to the American people that we can deliver We do need to de And, beyond this, when we have actually 10 a balanced budget, in fact, when we’ve achieved it, when 11 it's been voted, when it's not just a proposal, but is an 12 active law; then we'll be in a position to consider targete d 13 tax reductions to encourage the saving and the investment 14 which is essential to the longer term improvement of our 15 economy. 16 In the meantime, the most important thing that 17 we can do, individually and collectively, is to give first 18 priority to changing the whole additude about what our 19 government can do in terms of it's own discipline and 20 bring it's budget into balance. 21 we can do for you, and for business, is to do this as a 22 means to restore confidence in the government process and 23 to restore order to financial markets so that more normal 24 credit conditions will make it possible for businesses, The most important thing 25 NEAL R GROSS COURT REPORTERS AND TRANSCRIBERS 1330 VERMONT AVENUE. NW (202) 234*4433 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis WASHINGTON. D.C 20005 16 1 once again, to plan their futures and their investments 2 without the uncertainties that now covers us all. These intensified actions, which we are taking 3 Let no one be mislead about this. It may 4 are powerful. 5 not yet be apparent, but as the days and the weeks pass, 6 this will become more and more apparent. 7 that is going to bite is the credit restraint. 8 thing that is going to bite is the gasoline conservation 9 fee. The first thing The second The third thing that is going to bite is the addi 10 tional fiscal restraint that takes place as we begin to 11 wind down government spending, and government borrowing. 12 Let me just give you one number to put in your mind to show 13 how powerful this will be. 14 from 1980 to 1981, will be 50 billion dollars. 15 duction, from a 39 billion dollar deficit in 1980, to a 16 surplus of 10 or more billion in 1981, if we include the 17 gasoline fee. 18 The swing in our fiscal posture The re That 50 billion dollar swing is the largest 19 swing in nominal dollars that we have ever experienced in 20 our economy. 21 product, it's among the largest shifts in fiscal posture 22 that we have ever undertaken. 23 government will be reducing, by some 25 billion dollars, 24 it’s own borrowings within the credit market. And in terms of percent of gross national And, in 1981, the federal' 25 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NEAL R. GROSS COURT REPORTERS AND TRANSCRIBERS 1330 VERMONT AVENUE, NW (202) 234-4433 WASHINGTON, D.C. 20005 And releasin 17 < 1 some 25 billion dollars to fill the credit needs of the 2 productive, private secter. 3 So these are forceful actions. 4 you that inflation will not disappear immediately. 5 expect disappointing inflation numbers in the weeks and 6 months ahead, because there is already a good deal of this But let me warn in the pipeline and it cannot be reversed. We can But as these 8 actions begin to bite, the inflationary pressure will 9 abate, the program will begin to deliver a winding down 10 of inflationary forces and expectations. 11 The program will not be without cost or without 12 pain. 13 sacrifice. 14 of industry, you as leaders of your communities and your »Xl5 Everyone will be asked to bear their share of the nation, are And, obviously, in that regard, you as leaders critical importance. We need your support 16 to understand this program, and to help us implement it. 17 There is nothing more important for you in the long term 18 than to see that this happens. 19 to private business than inflation unchecked. 20 is nothing more important for your long term vitality, 21 than to wage and to win the war against inflation. 22 like you, are committed to the vitalization of American 23 industry, and the first place to start, is to put our house 24 back in order, re-establish the disciplines, and to demon- There is no greater threat 25 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NEAL R GROSS COURT REPORTERS AMD TRANSCRIBERS 1330 VERMONT AVENUE, NW (202) 234-4433 WASHINGTON, D.C 20005 And there We, 18 1 strate that we will control our destiny, and return to 2 that sense of purpose and inovation and vitality, which is 3 the ultimate strength, not only of our economy, but of our 4 role in the world at large. 5 Thank you very much. y 6 7 i 8 910 11 12 13 14 15 16 i 17 18 i i 19 20 21 Ii 22 23 24 25 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis I I
