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MONTHLY REVIEW Of Agricultural, Industrial, Trade and Financial Conditions in the Eighth Federal Reserve District Released for Publication O n and After the Morning of October 30, 1929 R O L LA WELLS, Chairman and Federal Reserve Agent FEDERAL RESERVE A K E N as a whole, business and industry in this district during the past thirty days maintained the high rate of activity which has marked the preceding several months. W hile there was a slowing down in production in certain industries, others increased their outputs, and in a majority of distributive lines investigated Septem ber sales were in excess of the volume in the cor responding period in 1928. The movement of sea sonal merchandise was held down to some extent by the warm weather during September and early this month, but despite this fact the volume of goods going into consumptive channels was in heavy volume. W holesalers dealing in merchandise for ordinary consumption, notably dry goods and apparel, reported marked improvement in advance business. Sales for future delivery in the agricultur al sections made a particularly good showing, numerous country merchants who had postponed their commitments awaiting more definite informa tion relative to the outcome of crops, having cov ered their full late fall and winter requirements. However, there is still a disposition on the part of retailers in both city and country to purchase con servatively and only sufficient for well defined needs. T There was a recession in distribution of au to mobiles in September, both from the preceding month and a year ago, according to reporting deal ers. Iron and steel plants specializing in automotive materials curtailed their operations, and reported a reduction in new orders and specifications on goods previously purchased. Demand for ferrous goods from the building industry, also, sustained a further contraction. Increased requirements of rail road equipment, farm implement, machinery and engine builders and other users of iron and steel served largely to offset the reduced demand from automotive and building industries. W holesale dis tribution of boots and shoes, drugs and chemicals, hardware, dry goods, and electrical supplies in Sep tember was larger than a year ago, while a smaller volum e was shown in the comparison by clothing, C. M . STEW A R T, Assistant Federal Reserve Agent BANK OF ST. J. V IO N P A PIN , Statistician LOUIS furniture, groceries, and stoves. Sales of depart ment stores in leading cities of the district in Sep tember gained 11.4 per cent over the same month in 1928, and for the first nine months this year their was an expansion of 2.8 per cent as compared with the corresponding period last year. A ccording to officials of railroads operating in this district, freight traffic continues in larger vol ume than at any similar period in past years. There was a reduction in the movement of grain and grain products as contrasted with a year ago, due to the unusually early forwarding of the wheat crop. In all other classifications, excepting forest products, increases were recorded, with an especially favora ble showing being made by merchandise and mis cellaneous freight. For the country as a whole, load ings of revenue freight for the first 39 weeks of this year, or to September 28, totaled 39,879,586 cars, against 38,224,762 cars for the corresponding period last year and 39,172,754 cars in 1927. The St. Louis Terminal Railway Association, which handles inter changes for 28 connecting lines, interchanged 238,769 loads in September, which compares with 252,629 loads in August and 242,543 loads in Sep tember, 1928. During the first nine days of October the interchange amounted to 74,060 loads, against 66,515 loads during the corresponding period in Sep tember, and 73,815 loads during the first nine days of October, 1928. Passenger traffic of the reporting lines in September decreased 10 per cent as com pared with the corresponding month in 1928. Esti mated tonnage of the Federal Barge Line between St. Louis and New Orleans in September was 91,000 tons, against 86,135 tons in August, and 148,377 tons in September, 1928. The low stage of water in the Mississippi River was responsible for the heavy decrease in the yearly comparison. Improvement in the bituminous coal trade, noted in the preceding issue of this report continued generally through the district during late September and early this month. Purchasing by householders was stimulated by the approach of cold weather, and a desire to take advantage of prevailing prices. The greater activity on the part of ultimate consumers was reflected in an active m ovement to replenish stocks on the part of retail dealers. Contracting by yard interests was reported in considerable volume in the Illinois, Indiana and Kentucky fields. Prices of domestic sizes were strong, with further slight advances recorded by a number of mine operators. Relatively less satisfactory conditions existed in the steaming fuel situation. Due to excessive sup plies of screenings, caused by the larger output of lump coal, prices weakened and difficulty was ex perienced in making sales. Railroads and large industrial users generally are less disposed to build up their storage stocks than in past seasons. Con tracting for winter requirements by public utilities companies, municipalities and public institutions, continued, however, in considerable volume. Opera tions in all fields in September were at a substantial ly higher rate than during the same month last year. For the country as a whole production of soft coal during the present calendar year to October 5, approximately 236 w orking days, totaled 391,357,000 tons, against 362,213,000 tons for the corresponding period last year and 399,281,000 tons in 1927. Reports relative to collections reflect rather spotted conditions, but the average was slightly smaller than at the corresponding period last year. Settlements with wholesale establishments in the chief distributing centers were in the main fully up to expectations, and in the case of boot and shoe firms, with which October is an important collection month, payments were the largest in recent years. W holesalers and jobbers of dry goods, hardware and furniture, also, reported O ctober 1 settlements in considerable volume. Increasing complaints were received of poor collections in the building material lines, particularly am ong the lumber and fire clay products interests. Generally through the south, where cotton, rice, tobacco and other crops are being marketed, liquidation with merchants and country banks showed the usual seasonal betterment. In the principal urban centers retailers reported im provement in September collections over those of August, and the betterment has continued through the first half of October. Replies to questionnaires addressed to representative interests in the several lines through the district showed the follow ing re sults : Excellent September, 1929......... 1.4% August, 1929............... 1.3 September, 1928......... 1.3 Good 30.6% 30.6 38.0 Fair 61.1% 55.6 55.3 Poor 6.9% 12.5 5.4 Commercial failures in the Eighth Federal R e serve District in September, according to Dun's numbered 98, involving liabilities of $1,762,109, against 103 defaults in A ugust with liabilities of $1,393,363, and 85 failures for a total of $1,010,897 in September, 1928. The average daily circulation in the United States in September was $4,811,000,000 against $4,777,000,000 in August, and $4,804,000,000 in Sep tember, 1928. M ANU FACTURING AN D W H O L E S A L E Automobiles — Combined passenger car, truck and taxicab production in the United States in Sep tember totaled 415,332, against 499,740 in August, and 415,314 in September, 1928. A s was the case during the past five or six years, there was a substantial decrease in distribu tion of automobiles in this district between Septem ber and October, and, according to dealers report ing to this bank, a slight decline occurred in Septem ber sales as compared writh the corresponding period last year. In both comparisons the decrease was fairly well distributed over all classes of vehicles, but was somewhat more marked in the mediumpriced than other classes. In the rural areas pre occupation of farmers with fall work and a desire to postpone filling requirements until more definite information relative to crop yields and prices is available, had a tendency to hold down purchasing. In a number of instances, dealers in the large cen ters of population reported that prospective custom ers were awaiting the appearance of new models be fore making commitments. Demand for trucks con tinued active, both the heavy varieties and lighter descriptions used for delivery service in the large cities. September sales of new passenger cars by 320 dealers scattered through the district were 37.2 per cent smaller than in August, and 1.4 per cent less than in September, 1928. Dealers generally are following the policy of purchasing closely and only sufficient for well defined requirements, and inven tories are slightly below the average at this time during the past several years. Stocks of new pas senger cars in dealers’ hands on O ctober 1 were 3.2 per cent larger than on September 1, and 8.5 per cent larger than on October 1, 1928. Salable used cars on hand on O ctober 1 were larger by 7.3 per cent than on September 1, and 17.8 per cent greater than on October 1 last year. The condition of the used car market is considerably less satisfactory than earlier in the year. Increasing difficulty is ex perienced in making sales, and the number of secondhand vehicles being turned in on new car purchases has increased considerably during the past few months. Demand for used cars for the service car traffic is good, but only a limited num ber of types are suitable for that purpose, and as a result there has been a large accumulation of second hand models for which there is scarcely any de mand. Business in accessories and parts continued relatively better than in automobiles proper. Special selling campaigns and requirements for recondition ing used cars were mentioned as factors in the m od erate increases in September sales over those of a month and a year earlier. A ccording to dealers re porting on that item, sales of new passenger cars on the deferred payment plan in September consti tuted 57.5 per cent o f their total sales, against 55.0 per cent in August, and 54.8 per cent in September, 1928. B oots and Shoes — September sales of the five reporting interests were 31.6 per cent larger than for the corresponding period last year, and 3.8 per cent below the record total of A ugust this year. Stocks on hand on O ctober 1 were 10.8 per cent smaller than on September 1, and 15.5 per cent less than on O ctober 1, 1928. The decrease in the month-to-month sales comparison was seasonal in character, but considerably smaller than the av erage of the past decade. Factory production dur ing September was at, or close to capacity, but since O ctober 1 a slight reduction has taken place. Prices were unchanged as contrasted with the pre ceding thirty days, but from 5 to 6 per cent under those prevailing at this time last year. Clothing — The warm weather prevailing gen erally through this district in September had a ten dency to hold down the movem ent of seasonal apparel, but on the other hand resulted in a good clearance of summer and early fall goods through retail channels. Ordering for future delivery has picked up substantially since the middle of Septem ber, particularly in the South. For the most part manufacturers are carrying moderate-sized inven tories of finished clothing, and are cutting goods in close relationship to orders booked. A slight im provement in demand for w orking clothes was noted as compared with the preceding tw o or three months. September sales of the reporting firms were 2.8 per cent smaller than for the same month in 1928, and 11.8 per cent under the A ugust total this year. Drugs and Chemicals — Business in this classi fication continued the gains of preceding months this year, sales o f the reporting interests in Septem ber showing a gain over the corresponding period last year for the seventh consecutive month. A ctivi ty was noted generally through all sections of the line, but was most pronounced in drugs and chemi cals for the manufacturing trade. Advance ordering of seasonal merchandise, including holiday goods, was reported in considerable volume. September sales of the eight reporting interests were 13.7 per cent greater than for the same month in 1928, and 6.6 per cent in excess of the A ugust total this year. Stocks on hand on O ctober 1 were 8.0 per cent and 15.1 per cent larger, respectively, than thirty days and a year earlier. D ry Goods — Sales of the eight reporting in terests in September were 0.9 per cent larger than during the same month in 1928, but 12.3 per cent smaller than in August this year. Stocks on O cto ber 1 were 16.0 per cent smaller than on the same date in 1928, and 9.9 per cent less than on September 1 this year. Road orders received since the middle of September have been in considerable volume, and generally future business is larger than at this time last year, tw o of the largest firms reporting an aver age gain of 26.2 per cent in their advance business at the middle of October as compared with the same time in 1928. The recent decline in raw cotton has caused some hesitation in ordering of goods based on that staple. Electrical Supplies — Barring certain seasonal commodities, which lagged somewhat during the past thirty days, business in this classification was generally active, both in the immediate and future delivery sections. September sales of the reporting interests were 24.7 per cent larger than for the same month in 1928, and 19.6 per cent smaller than the August total this year. Stocks on October 1 were smaller by 5.0 per cent and 10.8 per cent respective ly, than thirty days and a year earlier. Flour — Production at the 12 leading mills of the district in September totaled 426,244 barrels the largest since last October, and comparing with 367,202 barrels in August, and 459,103 barrels in September, 1928. Stocks of flour in St. Louis on October 1 were 6.0 per cent smaller than on Sep tember 1, and 15.5 per cent less than on O ctober 1, 1928. There was no change for the better from the dull conditions which prevailed during the preced ing two or three months. New buying was on a hand-to-mouth basis by the domestic trade, and specifications on old contracts only fair. Aside from the routine transactions with Latin-American coun tries, export business was quiet, with bids from Europe mainly too far out of line to result in sales. Prices showed little change as contrasted with the preceding thirty days, the narrow fluctuations re flecting mainly day-to-day movements in the cash grain market. Mill operation was at from 62 to 65 per cent of capacity. Furniture — September sales of the 13 report ing interests were 3.0 per cent smaller than for the same month in 1928, and 5.9 per cent larger than the August total this year. Stocks on O ctober 1 were 13.8 per cent and 10. 6 per cent smaller, respec tively, than a year and a month earlier. Demand for household furniture is reported quiet, with retail ers ordering only sufficient for immediate needs. Groceries — A contraction in demand in the rural areas and unfavorable weather for the m ove ment of seasonal merchandise were mentioned as the chief influences in a decrease in September sales of the thirteen reporting interests of 5.1 per cent under the same month in 1928, and of 0.7 per cent under the September total this year. Stocks on October 1 were 6.0 per cent and 6.9 per cent larger, respectively, than thirty days and a year earlier. Hardware — A s compared with the same month in 1928, September sales of the twelve report ing interests showed an increase of 3.7 per cent, and the total was 2.8 per cent larger than in A ugust this year. Stocks on O ctober 1 were 4.2 per cent smaller than thirty days earlier, and 1.0 per cent larger than on O ctober 1, 1928. Improvement in both sales comparisons was general through the en tire line, excepting builders' tools and hardware. Iron and Steel Products — W hile activities in this classification were well sustained during the past thirty days, reports were less uniformly optim istic than during the preceding three or four months. Operations at some plants declined slightly, and the volume of new business booked fell below ship ments, with the result that unfinished orders were reduced. Demand from the automotive industry sustained quite a marked recession, both in point of new buying and specifications on goods previous ly contracted for. This manifestation was particu larly marked at malleable plants specializing in automobile castings, and among makers and dis tributors of autobody sheets and plates. In the case of the malleable establishments, the let down was due partly to temporary inactivity occasioned by changes in designs and patterns incident to the production of new models by certain automobile manufacturers. Requirements of the building in dustry were also smaller than earlier this year, and at the corresponding period in 1928. Fabricators of structural iron and steel reported a falling off in new lettings, and several large shops reduced their working forces. The call for materials for highway construction, municipal improvements, public utility extensions and improvements and similar activities continued at the high rate which marked earlier months this year. N ew buying and inquiries by the railroads developed quite marked improvement, equipment and rail lettings being in considerable volume. Track fastenings, bridge materials and shop supplies were in good demand. Continued dullness was noted in demand for the general run of oil country goods. Manufacturers and distributors of sheets reported continued activity in the call for their w ares; with further slight betterment in the movement of galvanized material for roofing and siding purposes. Purchasing o f pig iron was in moderate volume, but shipments were heavy, the September movement into this district from blast furnaces being the largest on record for that particu lar month. Prices of pig iron remained firm, but there was a further decline in scrap iron and steel, most marked in the steel-making grades. For the country as a whole, production of pig iron in Sep tember totaled 3 , 4 8 2 , 9 3 6 tons, against 3 , 7 4 6 , 1 9 8 tons in August, and 3 ,0 6 3 , 5 9 3 tons in September, 1 9 2 8 . Steel ingot production in the United States in Sep tember totaled 4 , 5 1 0 , 8 7 9 tons, against 4 , 9 2 7 , 2 5 8 tons in August, and 4 , 1 4 7 , 8 9 3 tons in September, 1 9 2 8 . R E T A IL TR AD E The condition of retail trade is reflected in the following comparative statement showing activity at department stores in leading cities of the district: Net sales comparison Stocks on hand Stock turnover Sept. 1929 9 months ending Sept. 30, 1929 Jan. 1 to comp, to Sept. 30, 1929 to comp, to September 30, Sept. 1928 same period 1928 Sept. 30, 1928 1929 1928 — 2.0% — 3.1% T<% 1.74 Evansville ...... — 20.8% Little R ock..... — 3.5 — 2.0 — 3.2 1.77 1.65 Louisville ....... + 0.9 — 0.2 + 3.6 2.26 2.21 Memphis ......... — 1.2 — 3.2 — 5.0 2.29 2.22 Quincy ........... + 16.1 + 9.9 + 10.4 1.96 1.89 St. Louis......... + 17.3 + 5.2 — 1.1 2.98 2.69 Springfield, Mo. + 9.3 — 1.9 — 0.7 1.13 1.19 8th District..... + 11.4 + 2.8 — 1.4 2.60 2.41 Net sales comparison Stocks on hand Sept. 1929 comp, to Sept. 1929 comp, to Sept. 1928 Aug. 1929 Sept. 1928 Aug. 1929 Men’s furnishings........ — 1.7%* + 3.1% — 6.5*%! + 6.7% Boots and shoes............... — 6.8 +25.1 — 5.2 + 10.7 Department Store Sales by Departments — As reported by the principal department stores in Lit tle Rock, Louisville, Memphis, and St. Louis. Percentage increase or decrease Sept., 1929 compared to Sept., 1928 Net sales Stocks on hand for month at end of month Piece goods.........................................— 2.5% — 8.9% Ready-to-wear accessories............... + 0.6 — 2.2 W omen and misses’ ready-to-wear— 2.6 +13.8 Men’s and boys* wear..................... + 2.3 — 6.6 Home furnishings...............................4* — 6.7 PO STAL RECEIPTS Returns from the five largest cities of the dis trict show an increase of 1 .9 per cent in combined postal receipts for the third quarter of this year over the corresponding quarter in 1 9 2 8 , and a decrease of 2 . 7 per cent as compared with the second quarter this year. Detailed figures follow: For Quarter Ending Sept. 30, June 30, Mar. 31, 1929 1929 1929 Evansville ....$ 171,000$ 161,000 $ 163,000 Little Rock.... 225,000 208,000 244,000 Louisville .... 681,000695,000 724,000 Memphis ..... 605,000613,000 672,000 St. Louis .... 2,923,0003,066,000 3,147,000 Totals ........... $4,605,000 $4,743,000 $4,950,000 g ept 192g Sept. 30, comp, to 1928 Sept. 1928 $ 173,000 — 1.2% 245,000 — 8.2 661,000 + 3.0 573,000 + 5.6 2,869,000 + 1.9 $4,521,000 + 1.9 BU ILD IN G The dollar value of permits issued for new con struction in the five largest cities of the district dur ing September was 2 . 6 per cent larger than in August, and 2 7 . 8 per cent smaller than in Septem ber, 1 9 2 8 . According to figures compiled by the F. W . Dodge Corporation, construction contracts let in the Eighth Federal Reserve District in Septem ber totaled $39,465,352 against $39,224,227 in August and $33,240,828 in September, 1928. Production of Portland cement for the country as a whole in Sep tember totaled 17,223,000 barrels, against 18,585,000 barrels in A ugust and 17,882,000 barrels in Septem ber, 1928. Building figures for September fo llo w : Evansville .. Little Rock Louisville .. Memphis ... St. Louis.... New Construction Permits *Cost 1929 1928 1929 1928 403 460 $ 271 $ 288 39 58 166 739 151 201 1,556 1,067 203 229 588 1,085 577 791 1,600 2,611 Sept. totals 1,372 1,739 $4,181 $5,790 Aug. totals 1,294 1,819 4,074 7,066 July totals 1,709 1,593 4,869 9,163 *In thousands of dollars (000 omitted). Repairs, etc.________ _ *Cost Permits 1929 1928 1929 1928 53 27 $ 38 86 69 102 45 63 99 127 349 76 139 209 146 210 461 804 494 300 934 783 659 854 737 711 $1,149 964 759 $960 722 650 CONSUM PTION OF E L E C T R IC ITY Public utilities companies in the five largest cities of the district reported consumption of electric current in September by selected industrial custom ers as being 6.1 per cent smaller than in August, and 10.2 per cent greater than in September, 1928. The decrease in the m onth-to-month comparison was due almost entirely to reduced refrigeration load. The increase over last year was general for all classes of business. Detailed figures fo llo w : No. of Sept., Custom1929 ers *K .W .H . Evansville .... 40 1,804 Little Rock.. 35 2,071 Louisville ... 89 8,057 Memphis .... 31 1,199 St. Louis..... 136 21,661 Totals ..... 331 34,792 *In thousands (000 omitted). Aug., 1929 *K .W .H . 1,913 2,121 8,418 1,196 23,419 37,067 Sept. 1929 comp, to Aug. 1929 — 5.7% — 2.4 — 4.3 + 0.3 — 7.5 — 6.1 Sept., Sept. 1929 1928 comp, to *K .W .H . Sept. 1928 1,191 — 51.5% 1,778 + 16.5 +27.6 6,313 — 6.0 1,276 21,013 + 3.1 31,571 +10.2 AG RICU LTU R E Taken as a whole the agricultural situation in this district during the past thirty days underwent no marked change as contrasted with the similar period immediately preceding. W eather conditions were seasonable, and favorable for maturing of corn, cotton, potatoes and other late crops. T h e general average for all crops combined on O ctober 1 was slightly higher than a month earlier. In m ost sec tions early September weather was a continuation of the late summer drouth, but general rains at the end of the month, and early in O ctober relieved the dry soil situation materially. H arvest opera tions for all crops benefitted by the spell of dry weather, and in numerous instances both yields and quality are making a better showing than was looked for earlier in the season. T o the middle of O ctober no frost damage of consequence was re ported from any locality, and a very large portion of the corn crop is past danger from that source. Cot ton picking made excellent progress, and the m ove ment from points of production has been in con siderable volum e. H arvesting of rice has been vir tually com pleted, and favorable weather has per mitted of cutting and housing of tobacco. Except in Indiana, prospects for white potatoes declined in September. According to the U. S. Department of A gricul ture, the composite condition of all crops in states entirely or partly within the Eighth Federal R e serve District on O ctober 1 was 100.4 per cent of the average condition on that date during the ten years, 1918-1927. This compares with 95.0 per cent on September 1, 100.8 on August 1, and 98.5 per cent on October 1, 1928. Generally through the dis trict farmers are well up with their routine fall work. The supply of farm labor with the exception of a limited number of counties in the south, has been adequate throughout the season to all needs. W ages in the main showed little variation from the corresponding period last year. Corn — The indicated yield of corn in this dis trict, according to the October 1 report of the D e partment of Agriculture, is 300,449,000 bushels, an increase of 8,566,000 bushels over the September 1 forecast, and comparing with 358,882,000 bushels harvested in 1928, and a 5-year average of 377,036,000 bushels. Over virtually the entire district, late September and the first half of this month proved favorable for maturing the crop. Reports from all states, however, indicate spotted conditions. Irreg ularity exists in both yields and maturity in differ ent sections, and frequently in the same localities. As a result of dry weather in the late season and unfavorable planting conditions, many fields have eared poorly and will make little better than fodder. On the other hand, the ideal weather of the past few weeks has brought up both quality and prospec tive yields in many sections, and ultimate results bid fair to equal the 5-year average. W inter W heat — D ry weather over a consider able part of the winter wheat area somewhat de layed seeding of the crop, but the recent rains have permitted of extensive plow ing and planting, and in many of the most important wheat producing counties the delay has been largely made up. In Missouri, Illinois and Indiana considerably more wheat is going into corn stubble than for some years. Hessian fly immune dates are being gener ally observed by farmers in all parts of the district. Germination of early sown wheat has been substan tially aided by the recent precipitation, and the plant is com ing up to good stands. Total wheat production in the Eighth District is estimated at 45,785,000 bushels, against 30,966,000 bushels in 1928, and a 5-year average of 56,772,000 bushels. Fruits and Vegetables — The apple crop in states of this district, which earlier in the year was considerably below average, sustained further slight deterioration in September. An unusually heavy drop was reported in the Ozark region and else where, and considerable damage was done to the crop by scab, scale and insect pests. Based on the O ctober 1 condition, the output in states partly or entirely within the Eighth District is estimated at 15.521.000 bushels, of which 1,923,000 barrels repre sent commercial crop, against 24,990,000 bushels total and 2,544,000 barrels commercial crop in 1928, and a 5-year average of 24,306,000 bushels with 2.666.000 barrels commercial crop. There was little change during the month in the peach estimate, the crop in these states being estimated at 10,245,000 bushels, against 9,758,000 bushels in 1928, and a 5year average of 7,111,000 bushels. The gains in both comparisons is due largely to the large crop pro duced in Illinois. Unfavorable conditions for spray ing in the spring were reflected in a reduced pro duction of grapes, the estimate being for 37,213 tons, a decrease of 8,394 tons from 1928, but a gain of about 10,000 tons over the 5-year average. White potatoe crop prospects declined in all states of the district except Indiana, in September, and on a basis of the O ctober 1 condition, the yield in the district is estimated at 12,865,000 bushels, against 19,510,000 bushels in 1928, and a 5-year average of 14,970,000 bushels. There was a slight improvement in the outlook for sweet potatoes from September to O cto ber, the estimate in states of the district being for a total output of 16,027,000 bushels, an increase of 431.000 bushels over the September 1 estimate, and comparing with 16,078,000 bushels produced in 1928, and a 5-year average o f 18,004,000 bushels. Live Stock — The condition of live stock gen erally through the district underwent distinct im provement during the past thirty days. Pastures were helped by the precipitation in late September and early this month, and temperatures were uni versally moderate. Receipts of cattle sheep and hogs at slaughtering points in September were heavier than a month and a year earlier, the movement hav ing been stimulated by the drouth in August and the first weeks of September. There was a further decline in hogs, prices in the St. Louis market fall ing to the lowest point in a number of months. D e mand for stocker cattle was active, and breeding cow s are bringing good prices at farm sales. The hay crop generally is turning out well, the total out put in this district, based on the October 1 condi tion, being estimated at 8,922,000 tons, against 7.573.000 tons in 1928, and a 5-year average of 7,843,000 tons. Receipts and shipments at St. Louis, as reported by the National Stock Yards, were as fo llo w s : ________Receipts Sept., Aug., Sept., 1929 1929 1928 Cattle and Calves..... 160,135 128,684 155,661 Hogs ......................... 312,938 304,136 282,932 Horses and Mules.... 7,635 3,541 4,814 Sheep ......................... 64,770 62,370 48,040 Shipments Sept., Aug., Sept., 1929 1929 1928 100,127 87,900 115,876 211,815 203,633 226,896 6,497 3,251 4,614 33,672 18,037 19,029 Cotton — Under almost ideal weather condi tions for late development and picking, the cotton crop in this district made distinct improvement dur ing September, and scattered reports indicate a con tinuance of the betterment during the first half of this month. Based on the October 1 condition the output of cotton in the Eighth District is estimated by the Department of Agriculture at 3,291,000 bales, a gain of 256,000 bales over the September 1 esti mate, and comparing with 2,715,000 bales harvested in 1928, and a 5-year average of 2,519,000 bales. Universally through the district harvesting has made rapid progress, and the movement to market has been in unusually large volume. Reports of damage from boll weevils and other pests have not been numerous, and generally quality of the crop is high. Conditions in the delta sections of Arkansas and Mississippi are especially good. Prices declined during the first tw o weeks of October, the middling grade in St. Louis closing at 17j^c per pound on October 15, which compares with 17^4 c on Septem ber 16, and 18j^c on O ctober 15, 1928. Stocks of cotton in Arkansas warehouses on October 11 totaled 272,822 bales, against 227,005 bales on the corresponding date in 1928. Rice — Harvesting has been conducted under ideal conditions, and per acre yields are heavy and quality good. Due to reduced acreage, however, the crop will fall considerably below the average. The October 1 estimate of the Department of A g ri culture estimates the total output in this district at 6,821,000 bushels, against 8,108,000 bushels last year, and a 5-year average of 7,857,000 bushels. Early rices are selling at from 10c to 15c per bushel higher than at this time last year. Tobacco — A slight betterment in prospects for tobacco in this district occurred in September, and weather since the first o f this month has been favor able for development of the extreme late crop. A number of fields in which grow th of the plants had been arrested by the A ugust drouth, have benefitted by the recent rains, and with deferred frost should add substantially to the aggregate yield. Cutting and housing of the early crop has beeen completed under mainly favorable conditions. The output for the Eighth District is estimated at 289,423,000 pounds, against 243,987,000 pounds harvested in 1928, and a 5-year average of 304,306,000 pounds. Commodity Prices — Range of prices in the St. Louis market between September 16, 1929 and October 15, 1929, with closing quotations on the latter date and on October 15, 1928: Wheat High Low Oct. Dec...................... per bu. $1.38*4 $1.32 May ................... “ 1A7V2 1.41 No. 2 red winter “ 1.38 1.32 $1.32 No. 2 hard......... “ 1.32 1.25 1.29 Corn Dec....................... “ 1.00*4 .93# May ................... “ 1.05 1.01 1.02# .95 .95 No. 2 mixed....... “ No. 2 white....... “ 1.04# .98 .9 7 # Oats No. 2 white....... “ .5 2 # .48 .48 Flour Soft patent....... per bbl., 7.00 6.75 7.00 Spring patent.... “ 6.90 6.00 6.00 Middling cotton....per lb. .18 .1 7 # 7.75 8.15 Hogs on hoof..... per cwt. 11.30 FIN A N C IA L Close Oct. 15, 1928 15, 1929 $1.15# $1.33*4 1.23 1.43H $1.45 @ 1.50 @ 1.35 @ 1.29 # 1.14 @ 1.15 @ @ .93# 1.01 .96 .98 @ .4 8 # @ 6.75 @ 6.20 .1 7 # @10.05 .79 5/s .85 .97@ .99 1.04@ 1.05 .<43@ .45 6.50@ 7.25 5.50@ 5.75 .18 # 8.75@ 10.30 18, 1929. Deposits increased 4.6 per cent between Sept. 18, 1929 and Oct. 16, 1929 and on the latter date were 3.5 per cent smaller than on Oct. 17, 1928. Composite statement fo llo w s : *Oct. 16, 1929 Number of banks reporting........... f 25 Loans and discounts (incl. rediscounts) Secured by U. S. Govt, obligations and other stocks and bonds......... $243,096 All other loans and discounts.... 302,986 *Sept. 18, 1929 1*25 *Oct. 17, 1928 29 $238,244 301,209 $214,486 303,889(1) Total loans and discounts............. $546,082 Investments U. S. Government securities..... 47,311 Other securities........................... 108,542 $539,453 $518,375(1) 48,382 108,844 78,182 127,658 Total investments.............................$155,853 Reserve balance with F. R. bank 45,275 Cash in vault..................................... 6,626 Deposits Net demand deposits................... 379,586 Time deposits............................... 233,481 Government deposits................ . 2,513 $157,226 42,315 6,372 $205,840 46,825 7,388 392,322 360,643 A strong demand for credit continued generally 224,468 240,296 3,571 5,234 through the district during the past thirty days, Total deposits................................... $615,580 $588,682 $637,852 accompanied by a firmer trend in interest rates. Bills payable and rediscounts with 49,359 33,256 Federal Reserve Bank............... 31,105 Good liquidation of a routine and seasonal character *In thousands (000 omitted). tDecrease due to consolidation. These 25 banks are located in St. Louis, took place with both city and country banks, but Louisville, Memphis, Little Rock, and Evansville, and their resources represents 53.1 per cent of all the resources of member banks in this new borrow ing was in excess of the volum e of loans district. paid. Demands from the commercial interests in ( 1) Figures for 1928 include acceptances of other banks and bills of exchange sold with endorsement, while figures for 1929 exclude same. the principal distributing centers showed the usual Debits to Individual Accounts — The follow ing seasonal increase, with requirements of several table gives the total debits charged by banks to important lines being measurably larger than at the checking accounts, savings accounts, certificates of corresponding period last year or in 1927. The call deposit accounts and trust accounts of individuals, for funds to finance the crop movement gained in firms, corporations and U. S. Government in leadvolume, and was particularly marked in the south, ing cities of the district. Charges to accounts of where the movement of cotton to market has been banks are not included. rapid and in unusually large volume. Generally in *Sept., *Sept., *Aug., Sept., 1929 comp, to the cotton, tobacco and rice areas borrow ings by 1929 1929 Aug. 1929 Sept. 1928 1928 East St. Louis & Natl. country banks from their city correspondents in Stock Yards, 111..$ 62,425 $ 83,764 $ 79,989 — 25.5% — 22.0% El Dorado, Ark.... 8,080 — 8.3 8,207 8,808 — 1.5 creased, though in the immediate past there has Evansville, Ind.... 31,743 — 31.6 31,011 46,441 + 2.4 Fort Smith, Ark... 14,944 + 0.1 been good liquidation of loans based on cotton. + 14.1 13,097 14,817 Greenville, Miss.... 5,393 4,156 +25.8 +29.8 4,286 The active demand for credit was reflected in a Helena, Ark......... + 122.1 7,473 5,008 3,364 +49.2 Little Rock, Ark.. 93,281 75,715 84,145 +23.2 + 10.9 further rise in the volume of loans and discounts of Louisville, K y....... 200,790 200,167 + 4.4 + 0.3 192,326 Memphis, Tenn.... 192,078 + 28.2 149,625 149,784 + 28.4 reporting member banks, a new high point for the Owensboro, K y.... 5,963 6,319 5,504 — 5.6 + 8.3 Pine Bluff, Ark.... 16,911 +47.8 10,836 +56.1 11,444 year being reached in the first week of October. Quincy, 111............ 13,817 15,282 12,653 — 9.6 + 9.2 772,610 St. Louis, M o....... 775,420 705,848 + 0.4 + 9.9 Deposits of these banks have moved upward since Sedalia, M o........... 4,785 — 5.0 5,035 4,538 + 5.4 Springfield, M o.... 16,972 — 3.5 17,595 17,186 — 1.2 the end of September, and at the middle of this **Texarkana, Ark.-Tex......... ..16,428 15,222 16,452 + 7.9 — 0.1 month were the largest since early in May. Bor Totals............ $1,466,503 $1,405,808 $1,365,426 + 4.3 + 7.4 rowings by all member banks from the Federal *In thousands (000 omitted). **Includes one bank in Texarkana, Texas not in Eighth District. reserve bank, after reaching its high point for the Federal Reserve Operations — During Septem year early in September, turned sharply downward ber the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis dis at the end of that month, and at the middle of O cto counted for 247 member banks, against 242 in ber dropped to the lowest level since July. August, and 229 banks in September, 1928. The dis W hile actual quotations underwent no notable count rate remained unchanged at 5 per cent. change, rates charged by the commercial banks Changes in the principal assets and liabilities of tended upward. A t St. Louis banks current rates the institution as compared with the preceding were as fo llo w s : Prime commercial loans, 6 to 6^2 month and a year ago appear in the follow ing ta b le: per ce n t; collateral loans, 6 to 8 per ce n t; loans se *Oct. 19, *Sept. 19, ♦Oct. 19. cured by warehouse receipts, 6 to 7 per c e n t; inter 1929 1929 1928 Bills discounted.. ..$54,908 $54,901 $74,384 bank loans, 6 to 6^ per cent and cattle loans, 6 to Bills bought........ 42 6,402 63 U. S. Securities. .. 8,625 20,776 7 per cent. ..$63,575 $74,447 $82,079 Condition of Banks — Loans and discounts of .. 85,753 68,797 61,434 Total deposits........................... 82,780 77,812 81,306 the reporting member banks on Oct. 16,1929, showed Ratio of reserve to deposits and F. R. Note Liabilities.. . 68.5% 49.3% 55.8% an increase of 1.2 per cent as contrasted with Sept. *In thousands (000 omitted). (Compiled Oct. 22, 1929) BUSINESS CONDITIONS IN T H E U N ITED STATES Industrial activity increased less in September than is usual at this season. Production during the month continued above the level of a year ago, and for the third quarter of the year it was at a rate approximately 10 per cent above 1928. There was a further decline in building contracts awarded. Bank loans increased between the middle of Sep tember and the middle of October, reflecting chiefly growth in loans on securities. PRODUCTION — Output of iron and steel declined further in September. Contrary to the seasonal tendency there was a sharp decrease in output of automobiles and automobile tires and a smaller than seasonal increase in ac tivity in the textile and shoe industries, which continued to September: Manufactures, 122; Minerals, 119. produce at a high rate in comparison with the preceding year. Meat packing plants were more active than in August; factories increased the number of their employees during September and payrolls were also slightly larger. Output of coal showed a substantial increase from August. The average daily production of copper mined was somewhat larger. Iron ore shipments declined seasonally, and petrole um output was reduced for the first time in several months. For the first half of October reports indicated a further reduction in steel plant operations, a continued increase in production of bituminous coal, and some increase in petro leum output, following a moderate decrease during Sep tember. Building contracts awarded in September declined sea sonally from August and were substantially below the cor responding months in any year since 1924. For the third B IL L IO N S OF D O L L A R S and continued to be larger than a year ago. In the first two weeks of October carloadings were smaller than in the corresponding weeks of 1928. Department store sales in leading cities increased seasonally during the month of September and were 2 per cent larger than a year ago. For the third quarter as a whole sales of the reporting stores exceeded those of the third quarter of last year by 3 per cent. PRICES — W holesale prices showed little change from August to September, according to the index of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Prices of meats and livestock declined considerably, while prices of grains advanced. The prices of raw silk, cotton and cotton goods were higher in Sep- Monthly averages of daily figures for 12 Federal reserve banks. figures are averages of first 19 days in October. tember, and the price of coal increased, while prices of iron and steel products, tin, gasoline, and cement were lower. During the first three weeks of October prices declined for a considerable number of commodities, including wheat, flour, hides, steel, tin, cotton, silk, and wool. BANK CREDIT — Between the middle of September and the middle of October there was a slight increase in the volume of loans and investments of member banks in lead ing cities. The banks loans on securities increased rapidly, while all other loans including loans for commercial and agricultural purposes, declined somewhat after reaching a seasonal peak on October 2. Security holdings of the re porting banks continued the decline, which has been almost uninterrupted for more than a year. A t the reserve banks there was little change in the volume of credit outstanding during the four weeks period B ILLIO N S OF D O L L A R S 1925 Monthly averages of weekly figures for reporting member banks in lead ing cities. Latest figures are averages of first three weeks in October, quarter the volume of contracts was 6 per cent less than a year ago. During the first three weeks of October contracts continued substantially below the level of last year. Octo ber estimates by the Department of Agriculture indicate a cotton crop of 14,915,000 bales, 3 per cent larger than last year; a corn crop of 2,528,000,000 bushels, 11 per cent smaller than the crop of a year ago, and 8 per cent below the 5-year average, and a total wheat crop of 792,000,000 bushels, 12 per cent below last year but only slightly under the 5-year average. D ISTRIBU TIO N — Freight car loadings increased by slightly less than the usual seasonal amount in September, Latest 1926 1927 1928 1929 Monthly rates in the open market in New Y ork: commercial paper rate on 4- to 6-month paper and acceptance rate on 90-day bankers accept ances. Latest figures are averages of first 23 days in October. ending October 19. Further increase in the holdings of acceptances by the Federal reserve banks was accompanied by a decline in discounts for member banks, largely at the Federal reserve bank of N ew York. Open market rates on bankers acceptances and on prime commercial paper were unchanged during the last half of September and the first three weeks of October. On October 23 rates on bankers’ acceptances declined by one-eighth per cent to a 5 per cent level for the principal maturities. Rates on demand and time loans on securities declined during the first half of October.
@FedFRASER