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BUSINESS ITIONS Monthly Review of A g icu Released for Publication FEDERAL RESERVE Trade and Finance apers of October 1,1943 BANK OF ST. LOUIS R E C E N T TREND S IN E IG H T H D IS T R IC T P O P U L A T IO N E T W E E N April, 1940, and March, 1943, it is estimated that total population in the Eighth District grew by some 150,000 persons, or about 1.5 per cent. This compares with a 3.2 per cent gain for the nation in the same period. Between May, 1942, and March, 1943, Eighth District popu lation is estimated to have declined fractionally, while total United States population was increasing by 1 per cent. Due to heavy withdrawals for the armed forces, civilian population, in both the dis trict and the nation, has declined since April, 1940, but there has been a relatively greater decrease in the district than in the United States. Civil popu lation in the Eighth District declined about 4.3 per cent, while the decline for the entire nation amounted to 2.3 per cent. Inasmuch as the district civil popu lation is showing a significantly greater percentage decline than that of the United States, it would seem that there has been some out-migration of per sons from this district to other parts of the country. Probably more significant, at present, than the indicated out-migration from the district to other sections is the shift in population within the district itself. The table below shows the civilian popula tion in six Eighth District metropolitan areas in 1940, 1942, and 1943. The March, 1943, figures are estimates of the Bureau of Census based on the registration for W ar Ration Book T w o, and are ad justed to independent estimates of national popu lation derived by the Bureau. Inasmuch as con siderable numbers of people registered late for the second ration book,, there will probably be some final corrections for the March, 1943, figures. For example, on the basis of available evidence, it seems likely that in the St. Louis area the March, 1943, population is understated so that the final figure will show a slight increase in population since May, 1942, rather than a decline. Other areas in the dis trict may conceivably have their population figures revised downward. The civilian population for the six metropolitan areas combined gained about 6 per cent from April, 1940, to May, 1942, while the total district decline was almost 1 per cent, thus indicating a rather strong movement from the rural areas to the large B cities as a result of the war production boom in the major cities. Between May, 1942, and March, 1943, the population increase in the six areas combined was fractional, but the decline in district civilian population was much more marked than in the pre vious two-year period. W hen the metropolitan areas are considered sepa rately, it is evident that those which are strongly engaged in war production are exhibiting the great est population rises. Evansville has shown a rather steady increase from April, 1940, to March, 1943. St. Louis and Louisville, which benefited quite early from the defense-war program, showed a much greater population increase in the period from 1940 to 1942 than in the follow ing year. In Little Rock, where the construction program for industrial and military facilities was quite extensive, the popula tion increased more percentage-wise than in any other metropolitan area in the district between April, 1940, and May, 1942, but in the follow ing year an actual decline was registered. Little Rock is classified as a labor surplus area, and in addition to withdrawals for the armed forces, there has prob ably been an out-migration of workers into other sections. Memphis, which entered rather late into the war program, shows a population decline for the first two years after April, 1940, but a very pro nounced increase in the next year. Springfield, which has been relatively untouched by the war building and manufacturing program, has seen its population decline in both periods as some out migration, probably to war production centers, and withdrawals for military services have not been counterbalanced by any influx of workers for war plants. C IV IL IA N State P O P U L A T IO N O F E IG H T H D IS T R IC T M E T R O P O L I T A N C O U N T IE S (in thousands) M ay, ’ 42 M ar.,’ 43 M ar., ’ 43 A pril, M ay, M arch, com p.w ith com p.w ith com p.w ith 1940 1942 1943 A p ril,’40 M a y,’42 A p ril/4 0 158 E vansville............. Little R o c k ........... 156 L ou isville................ 451 M em phis................ 358 St. L o u is ................ 1,430, Springfield............. 91 167 175 496 353 1,520 90 T o t a l....................2,644 2,801 Source: Bureau of the Census. 171 171 502 383 1,504 87 2,818 + 5.7% + 1 2 .2 + 1 0 .0 — 1.4 + 6.3 — 1.1 + 5.9 -f— + + — — 2.4% 2.3 1.2 8.5 1.1 3.3 + 0.6 + 8.2% + 9.6 + 1 1 .3 + 7.0 + 5.2 — 4.4 + 6.6 F U R N IT U R E STO R E T R A D E from a smaller sample of stores by the Department Since May, 1942, the Federal Reserve System has of Commerce. In this district, at present, there are been collecting data on sales, stocks, collections, an</ about seventy furniture stores which furnish this receivables from a sample of the larger and more bank with monthly reports on their operations. important furniture stores in the United States. These stores are scattered throughout the district Prior to that time, similar data had been collected Page 2 and their sales in 1941 totaled approximately 33 per cent of all furniture store sales in the district. Since furniture distribution is handled by a relatively large number of fairly small units, this is reasonably g ood coverage. Beginning with this issue, a regular monthly table on furniture store operations will be published in this Review. For most of 1942, sales at furniture stores reg istered a consistent decline from 1941 levels. This decrease was due primarily to the application of stricter instalment credit terms under Regulation W , since most furniture store sales are on an instal ment basis. From the beginning of 1943, however, there has been an upward trend in furniture store sales. W ith the exception of March and April, each month this year has registered a gain over the cor responding month a year earlier. In August, 1943, sales were 14 per cent over August, 1942. The sales of most reporting furniture stores in this district are concentrated in such lines as livingroom, dining-room, and bed-room suites, in contrast to department stores whose house furnishings de partment sales show considerable volum e in soft lines, such as bedding, draperies, etc., and in major household appliances. Department store sales of house furnishings, exclusive of m ajor household appliances, have shown no appreciable increase for the first eight months of 1943 over the comparable period in 1942. Despite the difficulty of obtaining merchandise, furniture store sales in the district ap parently have been maintained better than the sale of like goods at department stores. As might be expected, the heavy volume of pur chasing power engendered by the war program, and the relatively strict credit terms now in existence, have caused cash sales to increase sharply over last year’s levels. In August, cash sales were 26 per cent greater than a year ago. For the last eight months of 1942, credit sales showed a rather steady decline in importance since cash sales increased relatively while total sales were declining. H ow ever, with the upward movement in total sales this year, goods bought on credit are in appreciably greater volume than a year earlier. The imposition of stricter credit terms has re sulted in a rise of the collection ratio at furniture stores in the district. The August, 1943, collection ratio was 34 per cent as compared with 24 per cent a year ago. A ccounts receivable in 1943 have aver aged almost 40 per cent less than in the comparable period a year earlier. Furniture store stocks at retail value, in August, amounted to about four months’ supply at the cur rent rate of sale, contrasted with approximately a six m onths’ supply at the beginning of the year. At the end of August, inventories were 19 per cent be low December, 1942. G E N E R A L IN D U S T R IA L S IT U A T IO N into the region since the beginning of the defenseFor the past several months, the level of industrial war program. Large supply contracts (those over activity in this district has been relatively stable. $50,000 in value and excluding food contracts) Consequently, the gain over the comparable period valued at about $3.3 billion were let in the period a year ago, when activity was rising at a rapid rate, from June, 1940, through June, 1943. This is but has narrowed considerably as the year has advanced. W hile manufacturing employment in war industry 2.5 per cent of the total dollar value of large con continues to expand, most of the increase comes tracts let in the nation in the same period. In 1939, from transfer of workers from such lines as trade, the value of manufactures in the district totaled $2.4 billion, or 4.2 per cent of the nation’s value of manu service, and construction. The over-all level of dis trict employment has shown no marked change factures. It is probable that the relative importance of the district in war supply contracts secured is since last December. This lack of pronounced gain from month to understated by the 2.5 ratio of district to nation, be cause this region may have shared to a greater rela month has also, of course, been characteristic of tive degree in smaller contracts and food contracts. national industrial activity since January. The Fed It seems unlikely, however, even when this is con eral Reserve a'djusted index of industrial production sidered, that the district share of supply contracts in A ugust stood at 203 per cent of the 1935-39 aver has approached its 1939 ratio of manufacturing value. age, having gained but 2 per cent since the begin The passing of the construction phase of the ning of the year. As measured by the index, output defense-war program has released a considerable of durable goods increased 5 per cent in the past amount of labor in the district and should result in eight months, while production of non-durables an ample supply of workers for war plants gener actually dropped slightly. ally, although certain local and specific shortages There has been a com paratively low volume of may well continue. This area, in contrast to its Government war supply contracts which has flowed Page 3 rather light volume of supply contracts, received a very heavy volume of facility awards. A bout $1.8 billion has been spent by the Government for in dustrial facilities alone since June, 1940, and this total is swelled considerably by the addition of military facility awards. Close to 7 per cent of the industrial construction program of the nation was concentrated in this district. In August, industrial activity in the Eighth Dis trict declined moderately from the July level, but held well above last August. Industrial electric power consumed in the m ajor cities was 4 per cent greater than in July and 19 per cent more than in August, 1942. Due to a strike, steel output dropped off from July. Lumber production was up slightly in the month, but remained below the level of last year. Industrial alcohol was turned out in less volume as seven distilleries went out of production. Output of shoes, according to preliminary reports, was up 5 per cent from July, but showed no change from a year ago. Mining of bituminous coal in creased 3 per cent from July and was 19 per cent above August, 1942. D IS T R IC T S U R V E Y from wholesalers and retailers because of the short Iron and Steel — Output of steel ingots and cast age of w^hiskey stocks. ings in this district in August and early September Only 50 distilleries in Kentucky were in opera was at a lower rate than the preceding month and tion on August 31 as compared with 57 a month the corresponding period a year ago. The drop in earlier and 51 last year. The reduction in the num production is attributable to a one-week strike at ber producing alcohol from a month ago is due the largest plant in this district. On August 30, the primarily to drouth conditions as many plants de rate of steel ingot operations in this area fell to 79.9 pend upon natural sources of supply for water. A per cent of capacity, the lowest scheduled weekly contributing factor to the curtailment in operations rate since Decem ber 22, 1941. The rate rebounded is, however, a series of machinery breakdowns due to approximately its normal war-time level in the to equipment being kept in almost uninterrupted week of September 6 and at mid-September, was at operation for a long period of time. 101.2 per cent of capacity. A G R IC U L T U R E The scrap situation is still the cause of consider General Conditions — In this district, crop pro able w orry in this district. The supply is falling off duction prospects of seven major field crops on at present, and mill inventories decline slightly from September 1 were slightly improved, with a gain of week to week. Trade sources state that the major 1 per cent over predictions a month earlier, but ex cause of curtailed supply is a shortage of yard labor pectations are 6 per cent below last year’s produc for handling and processing scrap. The local situ tion. The major factor in the increase from the ation is rendered particularly serious because of the August 1 estimate was an indicated gain of 20 million additional steel making capacity that will come into bushels in corn. W heat and potato prospects were production soon with the consequent need for addi unchanged, oats declined moderately, while hay and tional scrap supply. It is expected that a consider cotton prospects worsened considerably. Forecasts able addition to steel ingot capacity will com e into for these seven major crops are, however, 14 per operaton within the next six weeks when three large cent above the ten-year average. new open-hearths are lighted. Additional castings M A N U F A C T U R IN G capacity is also expected to be in production in the near future. Whiskey — Kentucky distilleries in A ugust con tinued the production of industrial alcohol for the war program. Despite all rumors that a limited production of whiskey would be allowed, the W ar Production Board announced, on September 15, that there was not a sufficient supply of industrial alco hol on hand, in view of increased requirements for alcohol for synthetic rubber, to allow the resump tion of whiskey distilling. A lso, the grain shortage makes it impolitic to use corn for whiskey. Reports indicate that most distillers favor continuance of industrial alcohol production and that most of the pressure for resumption of whiskey output came Page 4 Upturns in prices received by farmers for chickens, eggs, cotton, cottonseed, dairy products, and grains raised the general national level of farm product prices 5 points during the month ended August 15. Prices of fruit and truck crops were the only group to show a decline. For the first time since A ugust last year, the general level of prices paid by farmers for commodities failed to advance. The parity index increased 3 points to 117 at mid-August. Prices for farm products in the Eighth District also experi enced a gain of from one to three points, for the month ended August 15. The greatest increases were in the southern part of the district. Tennessee and Arkansas reported gains of 2 and 3 points, respectively. Cotton— W eather throughout the cotton-grow ing area of the Eighth District in August was generally unfavorable for good crop development, and the U. S. Department of A griculture estimate of 1943 cotton production in this district was down sharply from the August 1 estimate. Cotton output in the district at present is indicated at 3,291,000 bales, down 9 per cent from the estimate of a month earlier and com paring with 3,922,000 bales harvested in 1942. The yield per acre has been cut sharply by the long and continued drouth. In the cotton-grow ing states of the district, September 1 condition varied from 56 per cent to 73 per cent of normal, as compared with a range of 78 per cent to 83 per cent on September 1, 1942. H ow ever, one favorable re sult of the abnormally hot, dry weather of July and A ugust is the very low rate of weevil infestation reported. Picking of cotton has becom e general throughout the district. Labor supply appears to be adequate in most sections, but picking costs are up sharply from a year ago. Fruits and Vegetables— Eighth District prospects of vegetable yield remained far below the national average yield on September 1. Production of snap beans will average one-third less than 1942 produc tion, although acreage planted was greater than 1942. The prolonged drouth conditions throughout the central section of this district reduced the tomato crop by as much as 50 per cent in some areas. W hite potato output is off 1 per cent from last year. Green peas and other vegetables also showed marked decreases. Fruit production also has suffered considerably. A pple prospects on September 1 were estimated at 20 per cent lower than last year, grapes around 10 per cent, and peaches, 50 per cent below 1942 pro duction. Grains— The feed situation in the Eighth District appears to be exceedingly short in relation to animal population. Drouth in most states, especially Arkan sas, has not only retarded the grow th of grain crops, but has damaged pastures, further aggravating the supply situation. Some effort, however, has been made to relieve conditions by shipments of Govern ment grain, primarily wheat. September 1 estimates of the U. S. Department of Agriculture indicate a 1943 district corn harvest of 344,730,000 bushels, a gain of 20 million bushels over the August 1 forecast but some 50 million bushels short of 1942 output. Oat prospects on September 1 indicated a crop of 65,861,000 bushels, about 1,100,000 bushels less than was forecast a month earlier and 11 million bushels less than last year. H ay prospects dropped sharply in the month with a forecast crop of 7,546,000 tons as compared with the 1942 harvest of 9,327,000 tons. W ith the wheat harvest over, prospects remained unchanged from August 1 at 28,695,000 bushels, up 2,300,000 bushels from last year. Arkansas rice is indicated at 13,230,000 bushels as compared to 13,770,000 bushels estimated on August 1 and 13,515,000 bushels produced in 1942. Livestock— August livestock receipts at National Stock Yards were off 6 per cent from July, but were 5 per cent above last August. H og marketings dropped 58,000 head in the month and were 33,000 head less than last year. Sheep and lamb receipts decreased 13,000 head from July. Cattle and calf marketings were up sharply by 47,000 animals from a month earlier but failed to attain last year’s num bers by 15,000 head. Total shipments declined 14 per cent from July numbers but were up 7 per cent from August, 1942. Cattle shipments gained over July, while hog and sheep shipments declined. Fed erally inspected livestock slaughter in August was 14 per cent less than in July but 7 per cent greater than in August, 1942. Tobacco— Total tobacco production in the Eighth District was estimated on September 1 by the U. S. Department of Agriculture to be 251,821,000 pounds, or 3 per cent less than the estimate made a month earlier. Indicated production in 1943, however, is 4 per cent above the 1942 harvest. In the burley section, a long period of dry weather was relieved by general rainfall in the first part of September. These rains were beneficial to tobacco standing in the fields, but it is believed that the late tobacco is too small to develop and mature properly. Approximately 75 per cent of the burley crop had been harvested by September 10. Farmers experi enced some initial difficulty in securing an adequate supply of labor, but sufficient labor finally was obtained. In the dark-fired section, recent rains proved very helpful to the crop w^hich has made good progress in general. Good weather conditions for the remain der of the season may bring the late tobacco to a satisfactory yield. A bout two-thirds of the crop has been cut, and is, for the most part, of medium size and good quality. Drouth conditions have also affected Green River district tobacco. By September 10, approximately, one-half of the crop had been housed. Good quality is expected of the early plantings, but indications are that the late plantings will be inferior. C O S T O F L IV IN G In August, for the third straight month, the cost of living index for the United States declined. From Page 5 mid-July to August 15, the decrease was 0.5 per cent and left the index only 4.6 per cent above the level of September, 1942. Virtually all of the drop was due to declining food prices which fell 1.3 per cent. Over the three-month period, food costs have fallen 4.1 per cent, partially reflecting seasonal price de clines of vegetables and fruits, and partially due to the O P A program of rollback of butter and meat prices by means of subsidies to processors. O PA has announced that it plans to issue shortly a schedule of lower ceilings on apples, oranges, onions, potatoes, lard, vegetable oils, and peanut butter. This move is expected to decrease the cost of living index about 2.5 per cent more and bring it closer to the September, 1942, level which is the announced objective of O P A retail price policy. O P A estimates that subsidies to carry out this program will amount to some $100 million a year. In St. Louis, the cost of living index on August 15 was 0.4 per cent below the level of a month earlier, but 5.1 per cent above September, 1942. Food costs in St. Louis declined 1.0 per cent in the month. In other district cities covered by the cost of food index, changes from a month earlier ranged from a 0.1 per cent decline in Louisville, to a 1.8 per cent increase in Little Rock. EM PLOYM ENT W hile localized labor shortages have been re ported in sections of the Eighth District, the out look for the district as a whole appears to be more favorable than for the nation. The labor needs of district farmers have been largely met, although shortages of a spasmodic nature have been reported in several sections of the district. Arkansas is faced with a shortage of labor for the rice harvest, but the completion of wheat harvesting and cotton picking may release additional farm labor for the rice harvest. The net demand for local labor in the St. Louis area is expected to increase considerably during the next few months. The normal supply of labor is practically exhausted, but there is a potential labor supply more than sufficient to meet additional war demands if it can be successfully recruited. In Little Rock, supply seems adequate to meet labor require ments during the next six months. In Pine Bluff, however, the labor shortage is critical and in-migra tion of workers is seriously hampered by the lack of adequate housing facilities. Evansville, current ly rated as a labor shortage area, and Louisville, a potential shortage area, continue to register employ ment gains although additional supply becomes in creasingly difficult to obtain. Memphis is reported able to meet most labor needs with relative ease. Page 6 CASH FA R M IN C O M E July Cumulative for 7 1943 1942 1943 (I n thousands of dollars) A rkansas..................$13,452 96,822 Illin ois.................... In d ia n a .................... 55,368 K e n tu ck y ................ 24,337 M ississippi............. 7,059 M issou ri.................. 59,849 Tennessee................ 19,305 T o ta ls .................. 1942 months 1941 $11,126 77,682 42,079 18,459 6,866 46,745 15,205 $115,050 623,633 352,679 182,017 87,674 335,220 143,401 $ 95,123 495,137 269,915 122,261 62,524 251,745 10,2,512 $ 57,417 345,615 181,950 89,144 44,843 171,984 72,541 218,162 1,839,674 1,399,217 963,494 276,192 R E C E IP T S A N D S H IP M E N T S A T N A T IO N A L S T O C K Y A R D S Receipts Shipments A u g., 1943 A u g., 1942 July, 1943 154,937 107,999 169,940 Cattle and Calves. . . H o g s . ........................... 228,385 281,271 195,258 H orses and M u les. . . 3,675 2,687 2,033 . . 135,444 159,188 126,340 ,522,441 551,145 493,571 A u g., 1943 A u g., ,1942 July, 1943 84,301 60,840 84,961 85,193 100,843 53,960. 3,655 2,676 1,982 41,323 67,208 46,589 214,472 231,567 187,492 W H O L E S A L E P R I C E S IN T H E U N I T E D S T A T E S Bureau of L abor Statistics A u g., July, A u g., A u g .,’ 43 com p, with (192 6 = 10 0 .) 1943 1943 1942 J u ly,’43 A u g .,’ 42 A ll C om m odities. . 103.1 Farm P rod u cts. 123.5 F o o d s .....................105.8 O th e r......................97.1 Bureau o f L abor Statistics (1 9 3 5 -3 9 = 1 0 0 ) 103.2 125.0 107.2 96.9 A ug. 15, 1943 123.8 123.1 122.6 Bureau of L abor Statistics (1935-39=10.0) A u g. 17, 1943 — •— — + C O ST O F L IV IN G July 15, Sept. 15, 1943 1942 123.2 United States. St. L ou is. . . 99.2 106.1 100.8 95.6 + — 0.5% — 0.4 117.8 116.6 139.0 141.6 135.2 134.9 147.7 + 3.9% + 16.4 -I- 5.0. 1.6 A u g. 15,’ 43 com p, with July 15,’43 Sept. 15/42 COST OF FO O D July 13, Sept. 15, 1942 1943 U. S. (51 cities) . . . 137.2 St. L o u is ............. .... 140.2 Little R o c k ......... ....137.6 L o u isville........... .....134.7 M em p his..................148.0. 0.1% 1.2 1.3 0.2 4.6% 5.1 A ug. 17/43 com p, with July 1 3/43 Sept. 15/42 126.6 126.7 129.2 124.2 129.7 — — + — + 1.3% 1.0 1.8 0.1 0.2 + 8.4% + 1 0 .7 + 6.5 — j- 8.5 + 1 4 .1 IN D E X E S O F E M P L O Y M E N T IN M A N U F A C T U R IN G IN D U S T R IE S B Y M E T R O P O L IT A N A R E A S Bureau of Labor J u ly /4 3 com p, with June, Statistics July, July, 1943 1943 1942 June/43 July,’ 42 (1937 = 100) 230.0 130.7 162.1 161.5 231.9 128.7 157.8 159.1 85.7 102.5 128.9 139.0, — + + + B U I L D I N G P E R M IT S N ew Construction N um ber 1943 1942 (C ost in thousands) , 40 Little R ock , 19 73 L o u isville ......... 91 . 65 48 16 60 48 162 A ugust T o t a ls . ,. 288 272 July T o t a ls . . . . 334 256 Cost 1942 1943 $ 122 5 125 41 54 347 459 $ H[-168.4% H- 27.5 -J- 25.8 - 16.2 0.8% 1.6 2.7 1.5 Repairs, etc. Num ber 1943 1942 Cost 1943 1942 161 10 102 24 765 175 125 39 389 145 98 83 46 175 191 $ 52 26 15 195 86 $ 38 20 26 72 163 1,062 517 873 965 593 450 374 375 319 289 V A L U E C O N S T R U C T IO N C O N T R A C T S L E T ( I n thousands A u g ./4 3 com p, with of dollars) A u g .,’43 J u ly/43 A u g ./4 2 J u ly /4 3 A u g ./4 2 Total 8th D is t .. . $ 8,971 $ 8,720* $ 65,777 S o u rce : F. W . D od g e C orporation. *Revised. + 3% C O N S U M P T IO N O F E L E C T R IC IT Y A u g., A u g ., N o. of A ugu st, 1943 July, Custom - 1943 1942 1943 com pared with ers* K .W .H . K .W .H . K .W .H . July, 1943 A u g., 1942 (K .W .H . in thous.) E vansville. . ,. . Little R o ck . , . 40 35 82 31 20 . . 134 11,223 3,037 17,092 6,343 6,433 98,644 11,073 2,932 16,749 6,208 5,350 94,327 5,194 2,971 16,404 5,516 1,298 88,175 T o ta ls ........... 342 142,772 *Selected industrial custom ers. 136,639 119,558 + 1% + 4 + 2 + 2 + 20 + 5 + 4 + i 16% + 2 + 4; + 15 + 396 + 12 + 19 DEPARTM ENT STORES Stocks on H and Stock T urnover A u g. 31,’43 com p, with A u g. 3 1/4 2 Jan. 1, to A ug. 31, 1943 1942 N et Sales A ugust, 1943 com pared with J u ly,’43 A u g .,’ 42 8 m os.’43 to same period ’ 42 Ft. Smith, A r k .. + 6% +31% + 23% 2.47 1.99 7% Little R ock, Ark. +34 26 2.73 2.23 + 7 Q uincy, 111.......... + 13 + 17 " t i l + 42 Evansville, I n d .. — 3 + 18 29 3.51 2.23 L ouisville, K y .. . + 9 + 18 + 17 St. Louis, M o .. . + 12 13 2.75 2.07 - 0+ 7 + 28 Springfield, M o. + 4 3 2.58 1.60. + 27 +22 Mem phis, Tenn. + 16 2.94 1.95 + 31 + 2 *A11 other cities. — 6 2.62 2.13 — 5 + 10 + 4 + 16 8th F. R. D ist.. + 1 0 2.85 2.08 7 + 7 *E1 D orado, Fayetteville, Pine Bluff, A rk A lton, East St. Louis, Harrisburg, M t. V ernon, 111.; Vincennes, I n d .. Danville, Hopkinsville, M ayfield, Paducah, K y . ; Chillicothe, M o .; Jackson, Tenn. T rading d a ys: A ugu st, 1943— 2 6 ; July, 1943— 2 6 ; A ugust, 1942— 26. Outstanding orders o f reporting stores at the end of A ugust, 1943, were 220 per cent greater than on the corresponding date a year ago. Percentage o f accounts and notes receivable outstanding A ugu st 1, 1943, collected during A ugust, by cities : Instalm ent E xcl. Instal. Instalm ent E xcl. Instal. A ccoun ts A ccounts A ccoun ts A ccoun ts F ort S m ith ........... L ittle R ock . . 25 L ouisville. . . . 36 M em phis . . . . 40 64% 55 64 57 Q u in cy ........... St. Louis . . . . Other cities . . 8th F .R . Dist. 30% 38 27 35 72% 72 64 S P E C IA L T Y STO R ES 108 156 103 110 Stocks on Hand N et Sales A ugu st, 1943 8 m os.’43 "A u g . 3 1/4 3 com pared with to same com p, with J u ly /4 3 A u g .,’ 42 period ’42 A ug. 31/4 2 114 152 121 128 Stock Turnover Jan. 1. to A ug. 31, 1943 1942 1.77 M en’s Furnishings — 9 % — 15% + 3 % — 19% 2.13 Boots and Shoes. . + 6 — 20 — 6 — 28 5.59 4.77 P ercentage o f accounts and notes receivable outstanding A ugu st 1, 1943, collected during A u g u s t : M en’s F u rnish in gs.................... 4 7 % * Boots and S h oes........................... 53% *Preliminary. R E T A IL F U R N IT U R E S T O R E S Net Sales Inventories R atio of A ugust, 1943 A ugust 31/43 Collections com pared with com pared with J u ly/4 3 Ju n e/42 July 31/43 A u g. 3 1/42 A u g .,’43 A u g ./4 2 St. Louis A rea 1 . — 0.4% + 20,. 2% — 3.0% — 32.9% 50% 36% + 24.7 52 St. L o u is ......... — 0.2 — 3.0 — 32.9 37 * * * * A lt o n ................ — 2.9 — 18.1 Louisville A rea 2 + 7.2 + 16.8 + 4.1 28 — 30.7 17 + 23.9 + 1.8 L ouisville. . . . + 14.3 — 38.3 28 16 N ew A lb a n y . . — 16.8 — 7.7 + 10.0 — 1.0 27 23 + 21.7 — 5.4 — 29.3 23 M em phis............. — 3.1 17 — 18.2 L ittle R o c k ......... + 4.3 + 6.6 — 4.3 31 22 * * * * + 2 2 .4 S pringfield......... + 13.1 * * — 22.9 33 27 Pine B lu ff........... — 11.8 + 14.0 — 0.4 — 27.6 34 8th D ist. T o ta l3 . + 1.3 24 *N ot shown separately due to insufficient coverage, but included in Eighth D istrict totals. in c l u d e s St. Louis, M issou ri; East St. Louis, and A lton, Illinois. 2Includes Louisville, K en tu ck y; N ew A lbany, and Jeffersonville, Indiana. 3In addition to above cities, includes stores in Blytheville, Fort Smith, A rk a n sas; Evansville, In d ia n a ; Henderson, H opkinsville, Ow ens boro, Paducah, K en tu ck y ; Columbus, Greenville, Greenwood, Starkville, M ississippi; Hannibal, M issou ri; and D yersburg, Tennessee. PERCENTAGE D IS T R IB U T IO N O F SALE S A u g., ’43 July, ’ 43 A u g., ’ 42 Cash S ales................................................... 20% Credit S ales................................................. 80 Total S ales............................................... 100 21% 79 100 18% 82 100 L O A D S I N T E R C H A N G E D F O R 25 R A I L R O A D S A T ST. L O U I S First nine days A jig ./4 3 J u ly /4 3 A u g .,’ 42 Sept., ’43 Sept.,’42 8 m os.’ 43 8 m os.’ 42 161,951 160,326 150,40.9 46,342 42,315 S ou rce: Term inal Railroad A ssociation of St. Louis. 1,173,129 A utom otive Supplies......... Drugs and C hem icals. . . . D ry G o o d s............................. Electrical Supplies............. F urniture................. ............. G roceries............................... H ardw are............................. Plum bing Supplies............. T obacco and its P rodu cts. M iscellaneous...................... + + 1,093,704 4% 1 14 18 25 3 16 1 3 3 10 + + + — + + — — + + + A u g. 31, 1943 com p, with A u g. 31, 1942 25% 8 12 35 21 7 3 25 15 15 5 — *32 — 55 — *12 — 16 — 42 — 30 *Includes certain lines not listed above. C O M M E R C IA L F A I L U R E S I N A u g ./4 3 E IG H T H J u ly /4 3 A u g ./4 2 5 $ 49,000 28 $219,000 N um ber............... 3 Liabilities........... $ 70.,000 Source : Dun and Bradstreet. 66 132 143 94 98 Stocks A ugust, 1943 com pared with J u ly/43 A u g ./4 2 Data furnished by Bureau of Census, U . S. Dept, of Commerce. C H A N G E S IN P R I N C I P A L FEDERAL RESERVE IN D E X E S O F D E P A R T M E N T STO R E SALES A N D STO CK S 8th Federal Reserve District (1923-25 average = 100) A u g., July, June, A u g., 1943 1943 1943 1942 Sales (daily average), U n ad ju sted .................... 122 Sales (daily average), Seasonally a d ju s t e d ... 163 Stocks, U n a d ju sted ................................................... I l l Stocks, Seasonally a d ju s te d ................................. 112 W H O L E S A L IN G Lines o f Comm odities N et Sales (I n thousands of dollars) F. R. D I S T R I C T ■ A u g ./4 3 com p, with J u ly /4 3 A u g ./4 2 — 40% + 43 — 89% — 68 ASSETS A N D L IA B IL IT IE S B A N K O F ST. L O U I S Change from Sept. 15, A ug. 18, Sept. 16, 1943 1943 1942 Industrial advances under Sec. 13b. Other advances and re d is co u n ts ... $ ......... 9,600 361,220 370,820 ___ 7,175 + — 13,099 5,924 — Total reserves..................................................... 743,300 Total deposits..................................................... 493,093 F. R. Notes in circulation............................. 636,868 + + + 45,438 25,481 25,695 Industrial commitments under Sec. 13b. . — 170, 1,598 14 9,480 + + 183,302 + 192,768 + 85,705 + 71,590 + 224,235 435 + P R I N C I P A L R E S O U R C E A N D L I A B I L I T Y IT E M S O F R E P O R T IN G M E M B E R B A N K S Change from Sept. 15, A u g. 18, Sept. 16, (In thousands of dollars) 1943 1943 1942 Total loans and investm ents........... ............$1,490,014 + 39,181 + 399,510 Commercial, industrial, agricultural loans;* 227,084 + 17,753 — 4,797 5,159 + 1,059 + 1,965 :s 8,617 + 128 — 1,239 Real estate loans.................... 64,847 1,070 + 2,599 Loans to banks...................... 580 + 270 + 232 Other loans............................... 66,444 + 6,500 — 2,784 Total loans.......................... 372,731 + 24,640, — 4,024 Treasury b ills.......................... 109,280 + 5,382 + 16,956 Certificates of Indebtedn ess. 219,804 5,334 + 111,274 Treasury notes........................ . 149,859 + 1,095 + 94,295 U. S. b o n d s............................... 489,626 + 11,831 + 188,909 34,865 + 2,370 — 240 . 113,849 803 — 7,660 Total investments...................... . 1,117,283 + 14,541 + 4 0 3 ,5 3 4 Balances with dom estic banks. 121,918 + 7,298 — 20,417 Demand deposits — adjusted** . 921,229 20,,3 94 + 151,630 211,804 + 1,847 + 24,363 173,825 + 42,321 + 160,797 Interbank deposits............................... 505,327 + 25,257 + 46,123 B orrow in gs............................................ 9,600 + 7,325 + 9,600 ^Includes open market paper. **Other than interbank and Government deposits, less cash items on hand or in process of collection. A bove figures are for 24 member banks in St. Louis, Louisville, M em phis, Little R ock and Evansville. Their resources com prise approximately 75% of the resources of all member banks in this district. (I n thousands of dollars) A ug., 1943 9,666 El Dorado, A rk ........... $ 20,386 Fort Smith. A rk ......... 3,284 Helena, A rk ................. 60„633 Little R ock, A rk ........ 13,004 Pine Bluff, A rk ........... 15,614 Texarkana, A rk.-T ex. 12,673 Alton, 111..................... E .S t.L .-N a t.S .Y .,Ill. . 75,067 13,799 88,702 Evansville, In d ........... 285,486 Louisville, K y ............. 12,492 Owensboro, K y ........... 7,013 Paducah, K y ............... 6,446 Greenville, M iss........ 4,694 Cape Girardeau, M o .. 3,828 Hannibal, M o ............. 22,863 Jefferson City, M o .. . St. Louis, M o ............. , 885,183 4,985 Sedalia, M o ................. 26,623 Springfield, M o ........... 7,566 Jackson, T enn ............. Memphis, T enn........... 183,242 , 1,763,249 (Completed September 25, 1943) A ug., 1942 July, 1943 $ 11,232 20,229 3,458 63,540 13,721 15,058 ‘ 12,663 75,962 15,523 87,918 320,605 14,660 7,156 6,518 4,594 4,207 18,771 906,089 4,818 26,995 7,978 207,083 1,848,778 $ 8,500 16,321 2,512 63,409 24,696 15,556 11,917 74,076 11,479 58,957 264,451 11,826 8,243 5,608 4,052 3,761 16,546 803,780, 4,210 23,314 6,282 167,093 1,606,589 A u g ./4 3 com p, with Ju ly/43 A u g ./4 2 ___ 14% 1 + 5 .— 5 — 5 4 + - 0. ,— 1 .— 11 1 + 11 .— 15 — 2 .— 1 2 + 9 + 22 2 3 + 1 — 5 — 12 — 5 14% 25 31 4 ___ 47 - 0i 6 + + 1 + 20 + 50 8 + 6 + 15 15 + + 16 2 + + 38 + 10 + 18 + 14 + 20 + 10 + + + + 10 Page 7 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION N A T IO N A L S U M M A R Y O F C O N D ITIO N S B Y B O A R D O F G O V E R N O R S O F F E D E R A L R E S E R V E SYSTEM Federal Reserve indexes. Groups are expressed in terms of points in the total index. M onthly figures, latest shown are for A ugust, 1943. DEPARTMENT STORE SALES AND STOCKS 1937 1938 1939 Federal Reserve indexes. are for July, 1943. 1940 1941 1942 1943 M onthly figures, latest shown Demand deposits (adjusted) exclude U. S. Government and interbank deposits and collection items. Government securities include direct and guaranteed issues. W ednes day figures, latest shown are for September 15, 1943. MEMBER BANK RESERVES AND RELATED ITEMS W ednesday 1943. figures, latest shown are for Page September 15, Industrial activity and war expenditures were maintained in A ugust at a high level. Com m odity prices showed little change. Retail trade continued in large volume. In du stria l p r o d u c tio n — Output o f manufactures and minerals showed little change in A ugust and the B oard’ s seasonally adjusted total index o f industrial production remained at the July level. P roduction o f durable manufactures increased. Output o f iron and steel continued to advance and reached the peak levels achieved earlier this year. There w ere further slight increases in activity at war plants in the transportation equipment industries. Output o f other durable products showed little change. Production o f nondurable goods declined in August, reflecting further decreases in output o f textile, leather, and fo o d products. Cotton consump tion in August was about 15 per cent low er than the same period a year a go and was at the lowest level since the beginning o f 1941. Leather output has also declined in recent months and is currently close to prewar levels. A ctiv ity at meatpacking plants showed the usual seasonal decline in August but preliminary figures indicate that output was about one-fifth larger than a year ago. Output o f most other manufactured foods declined somewhat further. Production o f petroleum, coke, and rubber products continued to advance in A ugust while chemical production showed little change. P r o duction o f crude petroleum continued to rise and in August was in the largest volume on record. Lake shipments o f iron ore likewise reached a record level. Production o f coal and metals was maintained in large volume. D istrib u tion — Department store sales continued large in August and the first half o f September. Increases during this period were less than seasonal, however, follow in g maintenance o f sales at a com paratively high level during July. F or the year to date value o f sales at department stores has been about 13 per cent greater than in the corresponding period last year, re flecting in part price increases. Inventories at department stores have in creased in recent months and are now somewhat higher than at the begin ning o f this year, indicating that receipts o f new merchandise have been in excess o f the value o f goods sold. C o m m o d ity p rices — T h e general level o f wholesale com m odity prices continued to show little change in August and the early part o f September. Prices o f lumber and newsprint were increased, while prices o f fruits and vegetables showed further seasonal declines. In retail food markets prices o f apples and fresh vegetables declined further from m id-July to m id-August. T h e Bureau o f L abor Statistics cost of living index declined one-half o f one per cent as decreases in foods w ere partly offset by small increases in retail prices o f other goods and services. A g ricu ltu re — General crop prospects declined slightly in A ugust a ccord ing to official reports. T he forecast fo r corn production was raised by 3 per cent to almost 3 billion bushels, while prospects fo r other feed crops declined. Production o f cotton indicated on Septem ber 1 was 11.7 million bales as com pared with a crop o f 12.8 million last season. B a n k cred it — In m id-September excess reserves o f member banks rose sharply to about 2 billion dollars from the average level o f about 1.1 billion which had prevailed in the latter part o f A ugust and early in September. This increase was due in part to the fact that the Treasury was making disbursements out o f tem porary borrow ing from Reserve Banks on special certificates in anticipation o f tax collections and receipts from the T hird W a r Loan Drive. It also reflected in part a substantial decrease in required reserves at the middle o f the month when funds from individual and c o r porate deposits were transferred to Government loan accounts which are not subject to reserve requirements. D uring the fou r weeks ended September 15 the Reserve System holdings o f Government securities increased by about 1 billion dollars in addition to the special certificates taken directly from the Treasury. M ost o f the increase was in the form o f Treasury bills sold to the Reserve Banks with sellers retaining the option to repurchase. O ver this four-w eek period currency in circulation increased by about 560 million dollars to a total o f 18.8 billion outstanding. In the last tw o weeks o f August and the first week o f September, report ing member banks in 101 leading cities showed a net decline in security holdings as a result o f the sale o f bills to the Reserve System. In the week ending September 15, however, some non-banking holders sold securities to the banks in anticipation o f purchases during the D rive, and bank holdings also increased through repurchase o f bills from the Reserve System. Com m ercial loans, which had expanded by 100 million dollars in July and in August, increased by 250 millions during the week ending September 15. This increase in com m ercial loans was shared by both N ew Y ork and other reporting member banks. In the week ending the 15th, loans to brokers and dealers in N ew Y o rk City increased 370 m illion dollars, most o f w hich was for purchasing and carrying Government securities, and there was also an increase in loans on securities to others.