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Monthly Review of Agri :t •, Trade and Finance y Released for Publication i i irs of November 3, 1944 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS G EN ERAL IN D U STR IA L SITU ATIO N N every theater and on every front save China, United Nations’ forces are steadily pushing Axis armies back. Present military successes are due in no small part to the magnificent war production record o f the United States. This year American industry will produce $67 billion worth of munitions alone. A t the same time output of civilian goods and services is running at. an extremely high rate relative to the immediate prewar years. This has been accomplished despite addition of more than 10 million men to the armed forces. Today, with victory in production accomplished, the United States awaits V ictory in Europe which will signal the scaling down of our war effort by about one-third. Cutbacks arising from changed re quirements and programming have already occurred. Total munitions output currently is running slight ly below the peak reached last winter. In this dis trict it is off substantially from a peak reached somewhat earlier than the national peak. There seems to be little likelihood that war pro duction will increase appreciably again for any ex tended period. Until V -E D ay it is expected to fluctuate within narrow limits. In the Eighth Dis trict approximately the same condition is antici pated, although district war output may conceivably decline slightly from the current level before the defeat of Germany. A fter V ictory in Europe dis trict war plants, howrever, may be cut back substan tially more than the national average. W ar indus tries important to the district, such as ammunition, explosives, chemicals, and aircraft (exclusive of I super-bombers and naval planes) apparently are scheduled for very heavy cutbacks. The effect of curtailment of war output after V -E D ay in the dis trict may conceivably be greater than that follow ing final victory. Both munitions output and total industrial pro duction in the district are running below the level of a year ago. A s noted previously in this Review, the peak in war output came here in the early fall of 1943. Since then the trend in production of war goods has shown an irregular decline. For a time this decline in war manufacture was offset almost completely by increased nonwar output, but for the past few months an over-all drop in industrial activ ity has been apparent. In September consumption of industrial electric power in the major cities of the district was 5 per cent below that of a year earlier. Production in certain lines in September held up well in comparison with September, 1943, but de clines in other important activities more than offset these gains. September output of steel was some what greater than last year, as was shoe production and meat packing. Chemicals (other than muni tions) continued at a very high level of output. A lco hol distilling operations wrere off slightly in Septem ber from last year’s level. Lumber production re mained well below that of the comparable period in both 1942 and 1943. Coal production was down substantially from a year earlier. Other mining activity, particularly bauxite mining, was also off from last year’s index. D ISTRICT SU RVEY M A N U F A C T U R IN G Iron and Steel — The operating rate of ingot-pro ducing furnaces in the St. Louis district during Sep tember varied considerably from week to week, due mostly to necessary but unscheduled repairs. For the month, furnaces operated at a rate of 81 per cent of capacity, as compared with 86 per cent of capa city during August W hile the operating rate in terms of capacity was lowrer than in September, 1943 actual production wras up somewrhat. Castings out put in September was also heavy. Production of pig iron at blast furnaces continued at a very high level. Labor difficulties were not very important in cur tailing steel output during the month, although very recently reports of unauthorized strikes are again current. The major factors holding back capacity operations in this area continue to be the presence of furnaces held out of production because of high costs and labor shortages in a few essential lines. Apparently there is no solution to either of these problems, and consequently it is not anticipated that steel production will g o much above its current level for the balance of the war period. Scrap sup ply is in sufficient volume to assure sustained oper ations at the present rate. The scrap situation has become so much easier than it was earlier in the war period that scrap prices are currently running below ceilings. Shoes — Shoe production in the Eighth District during September declined somewhat with the de crease being contra-seasonal. Preliminary reports indicate thatSeptember output was 7 per cent below August but 5 per cent above September, 1943. For the first three-quarters of this year, output‘of shoes at Eighth District factories was 2 per cent above the comparable period in 1943. Final shoe production figures for A ugust indicate that 7,662,000 pairs were produ ced in that m onth as com pared w ith 6,879,000 pairs in A u gu st, 1943. Whiskey— A t the close of Septem ber, 1944, 50 of 61 distilleries in K en tu ck y w ere in operation, 8 less than w ere p rod u cin g a m onth earlier. A ll distilleries have resum ed produ ction of industrial alcohol for the war program . T h e w hiskey produ ction holiday was authorized for A u gu st only. W h ile final figures are not available, it is esti mated that 50 m illion gallons of alcohol, neutral spirits and w h iskey w ere produced in the U nited States during A ugu st. T h is is about half as m uch as average annual consum ption. A large p roportion o f A u gu st produ ction consisted of alcohol and neutral spirits, w hich could be used im m ediately for blen din g purposes with aged w hiskey. M uch wrhiskey n ow b ein g m arketed contains a very high p rop ortion of neutral spirits. Miscellaneous Manufacturing — O utput of m uni tions at district war plants is- still running at a very high level, but is w ell b elow the peak attained about this tim e last year. E m ploym ent at w ar plants has fallen substantially since Septem ber, 1943. P rodu ction has not fallen to the same degree since w ork er p rod u ctivity has increased, but actual physi cal output is off som ew hat. P rodu ction of chem icals other than m unitions continues at a very high level, with m ore volu m e being released for essential civ ilian purposes. M ill output of lum ber remains low relative to de mand, as labor shortages and transportation diffi culties continue to plague mill operators. P etro leum refining and synthetic rubber produ ction are running close to their scheduled peaks. M eat p ack ing operations remain at a very high level. F eder ally inspected slaughter of cattle and calves at St. L ou is in Septem ber was 25 per cent greater than in the com parable m onth a year earlier. H o g and sheep slaughter was dow n appreciably, how ever,and on balance total livestock slaughter was not m uch changed from last Septem ber. Fall h og runs have not started in any particlar volu m e as yet, but h og slaughter m ay be expected to increase as the spring p ig crop begins to flow to market in greater numbers. EM PLOYM ENT T ota l em ploym ent in the E ighth D istrict during Septem ber was up som ew hat from the previous m onth, due m ostly to the seasonal increase in agri cultural w ork. N onagricultural em ploym ent gained sligh tly during the past m onth, with the increase prim arily attributable also to seasonal conditions. E m ploym ent in m anufacturing is currently running about the same as in recent m onths. N o particular changes have occurred in the labor supply situation in the district during the past m onth. Spot shortages of agricultural labor c o n tinue evident, particularly at the present time in cotton g ro w in g areas. Generally, nonagricultural labor is in sufficient supply in alm ost every m ajor industrial section of the district, although sh ort ages in particular lines continue. R E T A IL T R A D E Septem ber sales volu m e of retail lines reportin g to this bank was up from A u gu st, and in the main show ed im provem ent over Septem ber, 1943. A t district departm ent stores dollar sales gained 12 per cent in the m onth and 14 per cent over last year. T h e increase in the m onth, how ever, was som ew hat less than seasonal in extent, and the sea sonally adjusted index of departm ent stores fell b e low both July and A u gu st. D istrict shoe store sales were up 16 per cent over last m onth and w ere 9 per cent greater than a year earlier. Septem ber sales at m en's cloth in g stores in the district registered a 45 per cent increase over A ugu st, and were up 14 per cent from the corresp on din g m onth last year. A t St. L ouis w o m e n ’s apparel shops a 13 per cent gain over A u gu st b rou gh t sales volum e in Septem ber to about the level of 1943. D istrict furniture store sales gained 6 per cent and 10 per cent, respectively, from a m onth and a year ago. F or the first three quarters of 1944 departm ent store sales w ere 10 per cent greater than the c o m parable period of 1943. February of this year wras the on ly m onth that departm ent stores sh ow ed a sm aller sales volum e than was show n in the same m onth a year earlier. A m o n g the more im portant cities of the district cum ulative sales increases have been greatest at Q uincy, Illinois, and Springfield, M issouri. E vansville has been sh ow in g a slight de^ crease in sales to date, but the rate of decline was lessened b y Septem ber sales. C ollection ratios at retail stores in the district have held at a high level during 1944. T h e depart ment store collection ratio on instalment accou n ts in Septem ber was 42 per cent, as com pared w ith 36 per cent a year ago. Charge account collections w ere 69 per cent o f outstandings, or som ew hat larger than both a m onth and a year earlier. A t furniture stores 35 per cent of A u gu st 30 accounts receivable w ere collected in Septem ber, a ratio 6 points higher than in the com parable m onth a year earlier. A t m en ’s furnishings stores the collection ratio last m on th was 71 per cent com pared with 48 per cent last year. Page 3 A G R IC U L T U R E General Farming Conditions — Ideal weather throughout September and the early part of October has produced an exceptionally good harvesting sea son in the district this year. Rain in most sections has been infrequent and temperatures have been mild. As a result, to date harvesting operations have not been interrupted to any great extent. These favorable weather conditions are particu larly helpful this year in view of the relatively small number of persons engaged in the harvest. According to the U. S. Department of Agriculture the number of farm workers reached a new low on October 1, with a much higher proportion than usual of family workers. This year’s harvest of crops in the district may be the greatest ever produced. In vi.ew of the dif ficulties encountered during the grow ing season, the out-turn is particularly remarkable. Delays due to unfavorable weather during the planting season, spot labor shortages, and shortages of farm equip ment all combined to curtail production. The ex cellent harvest is due primarily to very fine weather since late summer and to exceptionally long hours worked by farmers. Crop prospects in the Eighth District during the past month improved further, as a result of very favorable weather conditions. Prospective gains in 1944 production in the United States were largely concentrated in the central states and the Cotton Belt, a good portion of which lies within the Eighth District. The outlook for corn, soybeans, cotton, tobacco, and white and sweet potatoes improved substantially in the district during the past month. If favorable weather continues for another month, the out-turn of the 1944 crop may well break all previous records. Due to the exceptionally heavy supplies of truck crops, fruits, and some feed grains, with accom pany ing lower prices for these products, the index of prices received by farmers in the United States on September 15 was slightly below the level of both a month and a year earlier. The parity price index remained unchanged in the past month. In this dis trict prices on September 15 were little changed from the level of a month earlier, but were down slightly from mid-September, 1943. The rise in cotton prices generally held up the average district price level in the past month despite lower prices of truck crops and grains. Cash farm income in the United States for the first nine months of 1944 was 6 per cent above the comparable period in 1943. In Eighth District states Page 4 August cash farm income was $270 million, or 9 per cent less than in August, 1943. The cumulative gain for the first eight months of 1944 over the compar able period last year in district states was 8 per cent. Cotton — The October 1 estimate of the U. S. Department of Agriculture indicated an Eighth Dis trict cotton crop of 3,637,000 bales, or almost 186,000 bales more than was estimated a month earlier, and 420,000 bales more than was produced last year. About half of the indicated gain in the past month came in Arkansas. Exceptionally good yields ac count for much of the increase over last year’s pro duction. Current yields in the district this year will probably average close to 400 pounds per acre, rang ing from 373 pounds per acre in Arkansas to 450 pounds per acre in Missouri. The district yield is about 40 per cent greater than the national average yield. Due to this factor the Eighth District this year will produce more cotton than any other Fed eral Reserve district, and will account for approx imately 31 per cent of the entire United States crop. The district cotton crop this year is appreciably later than in 1943, except in Missouri. Through September 30, ginnings in district states amounted to 35 per cent of the entire crop, as compared with 52 per cent of the 1943 crop ginned in the compar able period. In Missouri ginnings as a percentage of the crop wrere ahead of last year, 43 per cent compared with 38 per cent. The exceptionally fine harvest weather has proved very helpful in the cotton-producing areas since considerably less labor is available for the harvest this year than in pre vious seasons, and as a result a longer picking period is necessary. Reports indicate that gin and compress labor is in very short supply, although so far indications are that the crop is being handled fairly rapidly. The latest cotton quality report indicates that grade in the two most important producing states of the district, Arkansas and Mississippi, is some what lower than in 1943 but that staple averages slightly longer. Grade in Missouri and Tennessee so far in 1944 runs better than in 1943 with staple length in the latter state considerably better than last year. Cotton prices are currently running well above the level of last year. The recent announcement of the W ar Food Administration that it would pur chase at parity through the Commodity Credit Cor poration all 1944 crop cotton for which a loan schedule has been announced had a strong influence on prices. The farm price of cotton in September averaged the^highest since July, 1927. On Septem ber 15 the farm price of cotton almost reached par ity, as compared with 96 per cent of parity in August. ‘ It is too early to evaluate the effects of the new program, but indications are that m ove ment of the crop into loan will be curtailed sharply. Feed Crops and Grains — October 1 estimates of the U. S. Department of Agriculture indicate an even more favorable feed grain and hay situation in the Eighth District than has previously been re ported. District corn estimates now stand at 377,350.000 bushels as compared with 362,072,000 bushels in 1943, a prospective increase in the past month of 7.049.000 bushels. The production estimates for winter wheat, oats, and rice remained unchanged on October 1. Oat output is indicated at 52,803,000 bushels, winter wrheat at 51,973,000 bushels and rice at 13,400,000 bushels. Both wheat and rice production are up considerably from 1943, but the oat harvest this year will be 13,166,000 bushels smaller. Tame hay prospects are now 8,038,000 tons, 91,000 tons more than was indicated a month earlier and 111,000 tons more than was produced last year. Soybean prospects also improved in the month. District pasture conditions are generally more favorable than a year ago. This condition, with favorable grazing weather, further enhances district feed supplies. Nationally the feed situation continues brighter than a year earlier. Total supply of feed grains for the 1944-45 feeding season is 2 per cent lower than that available for the 1943-44 season, but with de creased grain-consuming livestock inventories the supply per animal unit will be 13 per cent to 15 per cent higher. Likewise the supply of concentrated feed per animal unit will be 3 per cent greater for the 1944-45 season than for the previous year. Fruits and Vegetables — Fruit prospects in the district improved further during September and on October 1 indications were that this year’s harvest of major fruit crops would run from 50 to 60 per cent greater than in 1943. The 1944 commercial apple crop in Eighth District states is now esti mated at 5,851,000 bushels, as compared with 5,809,000 bushels in 1943. Peach production this year will be 7,774,000 bushels, or more than three times as much as the 2,499,000 bushels harvested in 1943. The 1944 pear crop in district states will be 1,581,000 bushels, as compared with 902,000 bushels last year. There will be 26,700 tons of grapes picked in 1944, or 5,400 tons more than in 1943. Both white potato and sweet potato production prospects in the district increased during Septem ber, but remained well below last year’s harvests. I ij the district proper the October 1 estimate for l white potatoes indicated a production of 9,229,000 bushels, or 225,000 bushels more than was forecast a month earlier, but 4,025,000 bushels less than was produced last year. Sweet potato production in Eighth District states in 1944 is now indicated at 15,249,000 bushels— 560,000 bushels more than was estimated a month earlier, but 1,189,000 bushels less than was produced last year. Production of all commercial truck crops for the fresh market is up sharply this year. Nationally the increase over 1943 will be about 17 per cent and over the previous record of 1942 about 11 per cent. Gains in the district apparently will run slightly below the national average. A m ong commercial truck crops for processing, the important district tomato crop will be much heavier this year, with Kentucky the only district state expecting less pro duction than in 1943. Output of commercial toma toes in Arkansas and Missouri will be more than double last year’s production. Livestock— V ery little change has developed since last month in the livestock situation in the district. H og marketings are relatively light with prices at or near ceiling levels. W eights of hogs marketed are averaging less than a year earlier. Cattle mar ketings continue heavy with the spread between prices of feeders and fed cattle wide. More cattle are going into feedlots than a year ago with active demand for heavier feeders of better grades, al though increasing interest has been directed to me dium quality feeders in recent weeks. Demand for feeder calves, while continuing relatively weak, is more active than in recent months. Slaughter of calves will reach an all-time high this year. Tobacco — The Eighth District tobacco crop of all types on October 1 was estimated at 315,006,000 pounds, or 24,073,000 pounds more than was indi cated a month earlier, and 52,590,000 pounds more than was produced in 1943. M ost of the gain came in the important district burley crop, although dark fire-cured tobacco and one-sucker prospects also improved appreciably. Cutting and housing of the burley crop was in terrupted by several days of general rainfall during the latter part of September. That part of the crop which was housed in September is not curing properly and efforts are being made to prevent houseburn by using charcoal and coke. Houseburn will probably be one of the objectionable features of the current crop. B y October 10 approximately 75 Page 5 per cent of the crop had been housed. In the dark-fired tobacco regions quality and size of leaves improved considerably in September, due to favorable weather conditions. Although there have been intermittent rains, farmers are harvesting the crop rapidly and by October 10 about four-fifths of the crop had been housed. Curing has been de layed, however, by the unusually wet season. One-sucker tobacco prospects also improved dur ing September. M ost of the crop is already housed. The leaf is reported very large and full of moisture and artificial means are being used to dry out the Cr° P ’ B A N K IN G A N D F IN A N C E During the four weeks ending October 18 demand deposits in the Eighth District continued to increase due largely to shifts from W ar Loan accounts ac companying heavy Government spending and to the rising volume of farm marketings. At 24 reporting member banks U. S. Government deposits dropped $47 million in the past month while the increase in demand deposits of individuals, partnerships, and corporations exceeded this amount by $27 million. In the smaller cities and rural sec tions of the district, heavy farm marketings swelled deposit totals. A sizeable amount of this seasonal rise in deposits at the rural banks was transferred to city correspondents. Interbank deposits at banks in the five major cities in the district increased $59 million in the period. A portion of the additional deposits received by the larger banks was absorbed by increased reserve requirements arising from the shift from W ar Loan balances to accounts requiring reserves. However, sufficient funds remained to enable city banks to increase holdings in Government securities sub stantially. Total investments of the 24 reporting member banks increased $28 million in the period just ended. Demand for bank credit continued light through out the district. Nearly all loan categories reg istered some seasonal increase in the month, but total loan volume was down appreciably from the corresponding period a year ago. Since the last issue of this Review the North Side Bank, Evansville, Indiana has become a member of the Federal Reserve System. T w o new banks have replaced two former banks as members. The Citizens Fidelity Bank and Trust Company, Louisville, Ken tucky is a consolidation of the Citizens Union Na tional Bank and the Fidelity and Columbia Trust Company. The First National Bank, Batesville, Arkansas is a conversion of the Citizens Bank and Trust Company. Page 6 CASH F A R M A ugust 1943 1944 of dollars) $ 13,599 88,597 . . 59,634 23,523 10,808 M ississippi......... 55,266 18,613 Tennessee. . Totals ......... R E C E IP T S .. 295,825 132,678 770,905 439,444 233,545 107,560 429,319 184,893 $130,284 722,743 410,199 203,836 119,685 389,395 159,357 $104,375 572,285 318,102 139,78973,491 297,166 115,734 2,298,344 $ $ 15,234 99,110 57,520. 21,819 32,011 54,175 15,956 270,040 AND IN C O M E Cumulative for 8 months 1942 1943 1944 2,135,499 1,621,392 S H IP M E N T S A T N A T I O N A L Receipts Sept., 1944 A u g., 1944 Sept., 1943 Sept., 1944 Cattle and Cal ves. . . . ’ 21 l,27l" 185,748 187,654 H o g s ................................. 188,105 206,615 232,290 H orses and M u les. . . . 2,452 2,050 3,450 Sheep................................. 75,613 92,893 109,468 T o ta ls .............................477,441 487,306 STOCK A u g., 1944 108,273 47,843 2,446 11,455 532,862 YARDS Shipments Sept., 1943 85,575 10.5,931 52,854 78,875 2,073 3,412 28,339 22,987 170,017 168,841 211,205 W H O L E S A L E P R IC E S IN T H E U N IT E D S T A T E S Bureau of Labor Sept.,’44 com p, with Sept., Sept., A ug., Statistics A u g .,’ 44 Sept.,’ 43 1944 1943 1944 (1 9 2 6 = 1 0 0 ) + — — + - 0- % - 0— 0.6 - 0- 103.1 123.1 105.0 97.2 103.9 122.6 10,4.8 98.6 A ll Comm odities. . 104.0 Farm Products . . 122.7 104.2 98.6 O ther................. 0.8 % .0.3 0.8 1-4 C O A L P R O D U C T IO N (I n thousands of tons) Sept.,’44 A u g .,’ 44 5,685 2,217 5,597 1,726 Other dist. states. . 15,225 Total. . . ^Revised. 6,80.0* 2,617* 6,380* 1,823* 17,620* Illin o is , . Indiana. . . . Sept.,’44 com p, with A u g .,’44 Sept.,’ 43 Sept.,’43 ■ 16.4% — — 15.3 — 12.3 — 5.4 — 13.6 6,408 2,380 5,451 1,573 15,812 — — + + — 11.3% 6.9 2.6 9.7 3.8 I N D E X E S O F E M P L O Y M E N T IN M A N U F A C T U R I N G IN D U S T R IE S B Y M E T R O P O L IT A N A R E A S Bureau of Labor A u g., 44 com p, with A u g., A ug., July, Statistics A u g., 43 Ju ly,’44 1943 1944 1944 (1 9 3 7 = 1 0 0 ) 292.7 131.8 165.5 160.7 254.6 142.4 180.6 133.0 269.8 145.3 181.1 133.7 + + + + B U I L D I N G P E R M IT S N ew Construction Number 1944 1943 (C ost in thousands) 23 26 61 234 80 4 13 51 63 73 September Totals 424 A ugust T o ta ls .. 441 204 288 Little R o c k ......... (K .W .H . in th o u s.) E vansville___ Little R o c k . . . L ou isville......... M em p his......... Pine Bl u f f . . . . St. L o u is ......... Cost 1944 1943 $ 37 57 182 231 283 $ 790 823 C O N S U M P T IO N O F N o. of Sept., A u g ., Custom- 1944 1944 ers* K .W .H . K .W .H . 40 35 82 31 19 138 Repairs, etc. Num ber 1944 1943 122 215 32 225 184 214 107 47 456 172 $ 42 55 73 68 272 $ 54 22 36 260 93 370 347 778 792 996 873 510 442 465 374 E L E C T R IC IT Y Sept., September, 1944 1943 com pared with K .W .H . A u g., 1944 Sept., 1943 140,364 139,484f tR evised. V A L U E C O N S T R U C T IO N ( I n thousands o f dollars) Sept.,’44 A u g .,’ 44 Cost 1944 1943 10 2 289 10 59 7,905 8,649 10,464f 3,3753,498 3,269 17,668 18,073 17,558 6,4916,843 5,901 7,6477,912 7,200 89,926 95,389 95,092f T o ta ls ........... 345 133,014 *Selected industrial customers. — 7.8% + 10.2 + 9.4 — 16.8 6.0 % 2.0 0.3 0.5 — — — — — — 9% 4 2 5 3 6 — 5 — + + + + — — 24% 3 1 10 6 5 5 CONTRACTS LET Sept.,’ 44 com p, with S ept.,’43 A u g .,’ 44 S ept.,’ 43 T otal 8th D ist.. . $ 12,297 $ 13,120.f $ 10,976f S o u rce : F. W . D od ge Corporation. tR evised. — 6% + 12% D E P A R T M E N T S T O R E S stock s N et Sales on H and Sept., 1944 com pared with A u g ./4 4 S ep t./4 3 9 m os.’44 to same period ’43 Sept. 3 0 /4 4 com p, with Sept. 3 0/4 3 Jan. 1 to Sept. 30, 1944 1943 F t. Smith, A rk .. + 1 5 % +19% +17% — 6% 3.29 2.80 L ittle R ock, A rk. + 1 5 +12 + 7 • 11 — 3.61 3.07 Quincy, 111.......... + 1 4 +25 +22 ......... ... ... E vansville, I n d .. + 9 + 1 — 3 ......... ................. Louisville, K y .. . + 1 2 +21 +15 + 13 3.85 3.95 St. Louis, M o . .. + 1 1 +13 + 9 -0 3.31 3.09 Springfield, M o .. + 1 6 +27 +25 ......... ................. M em phis, T en n .. + 1 0 +12 +15 + 6 3.61 3.33 *A11 other cities. + 1 3 +16 -j- -8 ~ 9 3.28 3.00 8th F . R . D is t ... + 1 2 +14 +10 + 1 3.44 3.20 *E1 D orado, Fayetteville, Pine B luff, A r k .; A lton, East St. Louis, H arrisburg, M t. V ernon, 111.; Vincennes, I n d .; Danville, H opkinsville, M ayfield, Paducah, K y . ; Chillicothe, M o .; Jackson, Tenn. T rading d a ys: Sept., 1944— 2 5 ; A ugu st, 1944— 2 7 ; Sept., 1943— 25. Outstanding orders o f reporting stores at the end o f September, 1944, were 2 per cent greater than on the corresponding date a year ago. Percentage o f accounts and notes receivable outstanding September 1, 1944, collected during September, b y cities: Instalm ent E x cl. Instal. Instalm ent E xcl. Instal. A ccou n ts A ccoun ts A ccoun ts A ccounts F ort S m ith........... % L ittle R ock . . 30. L o u isville ____ 42 M emphis . . . . 50 65% 61 70 66 Q u in c y .......... ..38% St. L o u i s .. . . 44 O ther cities. . 35 8th F .R . Dist. 42 78% 73 67 69 IN D E X E S O F D E P A R T M E N T S T O R E SALE S A N D STO CK S 8th Federal Reserve District Sept., A u g., July, Sept., 1944 1944 1944 1943 Sales (daily average), U nadjusted1 ................212 Sales (daily average), Seasonally adjusted1 . 193 Stocks, U nadjusted2 . . .......................................... 113 Stocks, Seasonally adjusted2 ........... ................. 107 iD a ily average 1935-39= 100. 2M onthly average 1923-25=100. 178 207 111 112 W H O L E S A L IN G * Lines o f Comm odities N et Sales Stock Turnover 160 216 106 113 188 171 112 106 A utom otive Supplies........... .................... — 9 % Boots and Shoes.................... .................... — 25 Drugs and Chem icals........... .................... + 4 .................. — 11 Electrical Supplies................ .................. — 29 .................... — 2 Plum bing Supplies................ .................. + T ob a cco and its P ro d u cts. . .................... — + — — — + — + + + — + + 9 9 Total all lines**.......................................... — * Preliminary. v **Includes certain lines not listed above. 9 C O M M E R C IA L F A I L U R E S IN E I G H T H S ep t./4 4 N um ber............... ’ 2 Liabilities........... $ 21,000 S o u rce : Dun and Bradstreet. A u g .,’44 S ept./4 3 2 6,000 Sept., 1944 com pared with A u g ./4 4 S ept./4 3 9 m o s/4 4 to same period ’43 S tock T urnover Sept. 3 0 /4 4 com p, with Sept. 30/4 3 Jan. 1 to Sept. 30, 1944 1943 M en’s Furnishings + 4 5 % + 1 4 % — 4% + 4% 2.21 2.37 B oots and Shoes +16 + 9 -f 9 + 9 6.28 6.29 Percentage o f accounts and notes receivable outstanding September 1, 1944, collected during Septem ber: B oots and S hoes........................... 53% M en’s Furnishings.................... 71% T rading d a ys: Sept., 1944— 2 5 ; A ugu st, 1944— 2 7 ; Sept., 1943— 25. R E T A IL F U R N IT U R E STO R ES N et Sales Inventories R atio of Sept. 30, 1944 Sept., 1944 Collections com pared with com pared with A u g ./4 4 S ep t./4 3 A u g .3 1 /4 4 Sept.30/43 S ep t./4 4 S ept./4 3 31% 38% -0 - % — 2% + 8% St L ouis A rea 1 . . + 5 % 31 — 2 37 -0 St. Louis + 3 + 7 25 — 13 30 + 19 - 0L ouisville A rea 2 .. + 4 24 27 — 14 +18 L ou isville. . . . • + 2 + 1 47 35 — 8 — 2 +23 N ew A lb a n y . . + 14 24 26 M em phis.............. — 3 + 2 + 4 + 1 28 29 — 19 -0L ittle R o c k ......... — 6 + 1 * * » * Fort S m ith. . . . . + 16 + 12 * * 34 39 . — 2 Pine B lu ff........... + 12 36 +29 +32 +32 53 + 14 E vansville. 29 — 9 35 8th D ist.T ota ls3 . + 6 +10 + 2 *N ot shown separately due to insufficient coverage, but included in E ighth District totals. iln clu d es St. L ouis, M issou ri; East St. Louis, and A lton, Illinois. 2Includes Louisville, K en tu ck y ; N ew A lbany, and Jeffersonville Indiana. 3In addition to above cities, includes stores in Henderson, H opkins ville, O w ensboro, K en tu ck y ; Columbus, Greenwood, Starkville, Missis sip p i; Cape Girardeau, Hannibal, Springfield, M issou ri; and Dyersburg Tennessee. P E R C E N T A G E D IS T R IB U T IO N S ep t./4 4 OF SALES A u g ./4 4 S ept./43 Cash S ales................................................... 18% Credit S ales................................................ 82 T otal Sales............................................... 100 20.% 80 100 17% 83 100 L O A D S I N T E R C H A N G E D F O R 25 R A I L R O A D S A T ST. L O U IS First nine days 9 m os.’44 9 m o s/4 3 Sept.,’ 44 A u g ./4 4 S ep t./4 3 O ct.,’ 44 O c t.,’43 148,479 162,521 158,392 44,479 48,846 S o u rce : Term inal Railroad A ssociation o f St. Louis. 1,432,440 1,331,521 -—14 + 18 11*4 + 3 + 16 — 3 F. R. D I S T R I C T S ep t./4 4 com p, with A u g .,’ 44 Sept.,*43 -0-% +100% + 250. + 91 C H A N G E S IN P R IN C IP A L A S S E T S A N D L I A B I L I T I E S F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U IS Change from O ct. 18, Sept. 20, O ct. 20, (I n thousands o f dollars) 1944 1944 1943 Other advances and rediscounts. U . S. securities................................... + * 2,480 — 60,875 . 605,871 — 58,395 + 194,468 . 819,692 . 571,206 . 873,024 Total 8.600 . 597,871 + 104,667 + 18,567 + 38,295 + 91,323 + 80,989 +213,30.6 + — 50 Stocks on H and +27% 13% 7 4 3 8 11 3 16 5 20 8 2 1 $ 11,000 $ F. S P E C IA L T Y S TO R E S N et Sales Stocks Sept. 30, 1944 com pared with Sept. 30, 1943 September, 1944 Data furnished b y Bureau o f Census, com pared with U . S. Dept, o f Com m erce A u g .,’ 44 S ept./43 2 + ’ 8,00.6 + 186,468 287 P R IN C IP A L R E S O U R C E A N D L I A B I L I T Y IT E M S O F R E P O R T IN G M E M B E R B A N K S Change from O ct. 18, Sept. 20, O ct. 20, (I n thousands o f dollars) 1944 1944 1943 Total loans and investm ents...................... $1,706,125 + 47,537 + 103,501 Commercial, industrial,agricultural loans* 235,775 + 16,825 — 23,712 Loans to brokers and dealers in securities. 7,323 + 657 + 359 787 + 15,822 Other loans to purchase and carry securities 26,731 + 1,159 + Real estate loans............................................ 65,764 + 1,072 Loans to banks............................................... 1,113 201 — 2,892 77,537 + 476 — 2,195 Total loans................................................... 414,243 + 19,703 — 11,546 Treasury b ills ................................................... 50,244 + 10,181 — 67,901 8,322 + 93,797 Certificates o f indebtedness........................ 334,448 + Treasury n otes................................................. 235,458 + 6,879 + 85,116 U . S. b onds..................................................... 539,391 + 5,202 + 18,878 80 — 10,850 Obligations guaranteed b y U . S. G ov t.. 24,000 Other securities.............................................. 108,341 .— 2,670 — 3,993 Total investm ents........................................ 1,291,882 + 27,834 + 115,047 Balances with dom estic ban ks.................. 116,337 + 4,518 + 821 Demand deposits — ad ju sted **.................. 1,044,678 + 74,330 + 184,741 Tim e deposits................................................... 6,719 + 51,586 263,836 + U . S. Government d ep osits......................... 177,270. 47,098 — 152,058 Interbank deposits.......................................... 555,274 + 58,850 + 54,147 7,000 19,500 + 7,000 ^Includes open market paper. **Other than interbank and Governm ent deposits, less cash items on hand or in process o f collection. A bove figures are for 24 m em ber banks in St. L ouis, Louisville, M em phis, Little R ock and Evansville. Their resources com prise approxim ately 75% o f the resources o f all member banks in this district. D E B IT S T O ( I n thousands o f dollars) 1944 IN D IV ID U A L ACC O U N TS A ugust, September, Sept.,’ 44 com p, with A u g ./4 4 S ept./43 1944 1943 E l D orado, A rk ........... $ 9,582 22,145 Fort Smith, A rk ......... 4,329 Helena, A rk ................. 73,426 Little R ock, A r k .. . . . 18,351 Pine Bluff, A rk ........... 11,540 Texarkana, A rk.-T ex. 13,642 A lton, 111...................... E .S t.L .-N a t.S .Y .,Ill.. 77,652 16,689 Quincy, 111................... 99*,742 Evansville, In d ........... Louisville, K y ............. 327,356 Owensboro, K y ........... 16,768 Paducah, K y . .............. 7,916 Greenville, M iss........ 9,521 Cape Girardeau, M o .. 4,856 4,784 Hannibal, M o ............. 25,845 Jefferson City, M o .. . 968,492 St. Louis, M o ............. 5,560 Sedalia, M o ................. 33,552 Springfield, M o ........... 11,487 Jackson, T enn............. Memphis, T enn........... 244,024 T o ta ls...................... 2,007,259 (Completed October 26, 1944) $ 9,362 20,235 3,315 65,437 14,299 10,950 12,874 81,277 15,770 106,953 315,073 14,705 7,850 6,994 4,854 4,923 21,205 950,612 5,486 31,627 7,701 209,880 1,921,382 $ 12,147 24,851 5,728 78,787 21,820 9,990 14,159 84,123 15,977 104,933 345,227 14,438 7,453 12,80.6 5,854 4,825 25,063 1,090,860 5,739 31,314 10,949 291,119 + 2% + 9 +31 + 12 + 28 + 5 + 6 — 4 + 6 — 7 + 4 + 14 + 1 + 36 -0— 3 + 22 + 2 + 1 + 6 +49 + 16 — 21% — 11 • 24 — — 7 t— 16 + 16 — 4 — 8 + 4 — 5 — 5 +16 + 6 • 26 — • 17 — — 1 + 3 — 11 — 3 + 7 + 5 « 16 — 2,218,162 + — 10 4 NATIONAL SUMMARY OF CONDITIONS B Y BO ARD OF G O VER N O R S O F FE D E R A L R ESER VE SYSTEM 1 3 1 3 1 3 1 4 14 1 4 1 4 14 9 7 9 8 9 9 9 0 9 1 9 2 9 3 94 Federal Reserve index. for September, 1944. Monthly figures, latest shown is INCOME PAYMENTS TO INDIVIDUALS Based on Department of Commerce estimates. Wages and salaries include military pay. Monthly figures raised to annual rates, latest shown are for August, 1944. WHOLESALE PRICES PE C N * ET WM.IOO K« C N ET Bureau of Labor Statistics* indexes. Weekly figures, latest shown are for week ending October 21, 1944. GOVERNMENT SECURITY HOLDINGS OF BANKS IN LEADING CITIES Excludes guaranteed securities. Data not available prior to February 8, 1939; certificates first reported on April 15, 1942. Wednesday figures, latest shown are for October 18, 1944. Page 8 Industrial production—Industrial production in Septem ber w 231 per as cent of the 1935-39 average, according to the Board's seasonally adjusted index, as com pared with 232 in August and 230 in July. Activity in most industries manufacturing durable goods showed slight decreases in Septem ber and there were further large declines in production of alum inum and m agnesium Steel output averaged 93.4 per cent of capa . city, som ewhat below the August rate, but show an increase during the ed first 3 w eeks of October. Easing of military dem and for steel led to som e increase in allocations for civilian production during the fourth quarter. Aircraft production and output in the autom obile industry were m aintained during Septem at the level of the preceding m ber onth. Output of textile and leather products continued to increase in Septem ber from the reduced July level. Shoe production advanced to the highest rate reached since the spring of 1942. Output of m anufactured food products, as a group, was m aintained at the level of the preceding m onth after allow ance for seasonal change. Butter production continued about 15 per cent below last year. Hog slaughter declined further in September, while cattle slaughter continued to increase m than is usual at this season and reached ore a record rate for the wartime period—about 50 per cent above the 1935-39 average. Beverage distilleries resum production of alcohol for industrial ed purposes in Septem ber after turning out an exceptionally large am ount of whiskey and other distilled spirits during August. Distribution—Department store sales in Septem ber showed about the usual large seasonal increase and were 14 per cent larger than a year ago. In the first half of October sales rose sharply and were 16 per cent above the high level that prevailed in the corresponding period last year, reflecting in part the greater volum of Christmas shopping prior to the overseas e mailing deadline. Carloadings of railway freight during Septem ber and the first half of October were slightly lower than a year ago owing to decreases in ship m ents of raw m aterials, offset in part by increased loadings of war products and other finished goods. Commodity prices—Prices of grains and som other farm products were, e higher in the third week of October than in the early part of Septem ber and there were scattered increases during this period in wholesale prices of industrial products. Prices of steel scrap and nonferrous metal scrap, how ever, declined; steel scrap was reduced from ceiling levels by 3.40 dollars per ton, or 18 per cent, to the lowest prices offered since August, 1939. Agriculture — Crop production in 1944 will rank with 1942 when the largest production in history was harvested. Corn production is estim ated at 3.2 billion bushels; this, together with other feed grains, wheat, and good pastures, will go far to prevent too rapid marketings of livestock. Com mer cial truck crops for the fresh market will not only exceed 1943 production but appear likely to exceed the 1942 record by about 11 per cent; deciduous fruit production is about 20 per cent above 1943, and citrus fruit production m equal or possibly exceed that of last year in spite of recent storm ay dam age. Bank credit—Expenditure by the Treasury of funds received during the Fifth War Loan Drive continued in large volume during the latter half of Septem ber and the first half of October, and United States Governm ent deposits at banks declined. Time deposits at weekly reporting banks in 101 leading cities rose by about 300 million dollars in the five weeks ended October 18, and dem and deposits of business and individuals, which decreased som hat in the latter part of September partly as a result of tax paym ew ents, increased again in October. Currency in circulation increased by 660 million dollars in the five weeks ended October 18. This unusually large outflow of currency may have been associated with purchases of overseas Christmas gifts during the period. Reporting banks in 101 cities reduced their Governm ent security holdings during the five weeks ended October 18 by about 900 million dollars. Trea sury bill holdings declined by 370 million dollars and certificate holdings by 530 million. These sales were largely m ade to m the currency drain and eet increased reserve requirem ents. During the sam period the Reserve Banks e purchased 680 million dollars in Government securities. Excess reserves continued to fluctuate during this period at a level of close to a billion dollars. Com mercial loans at weekly reporting banks increased steadily during Septem ber and early October. Loans to brokers and dealers in securities increased som ewhat, reflecting in part large flotations of new corporate issues during the period. Loans to others for purchasing and carrying Gov ernm ent securities, although declining steadily, were in mid-October still about 280 million dollars above their pre-drive level in June.