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BUSINE Monthly Review of A gric stry, Trade and Finance Released for Publication ip^fier^ooWP ipers of November 3,1943 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS G E N E R A L IN D U S T R IA L S IT U A T IO N S T R O N G L Y influenced by war planning de cisions made on a national scale and by fluctu ations normally attendant upon close to capa city operations, manufacturing output in the Eighth Federal Reserve District declined slightly in Sep tember, but was at a level well above a year earlier. An additional, but minor, factor in the decline was the Labor Day holiday, as some plants closed to observe it. As has been stated previously in this Review, it becomes increasingly difficult to produce more goods as th6 level of production reaches an abnormally high plane because with practically full utilization of equipment, materials, and labor in every month, a relatively minor disturbance may curtail any possible month to month gain, or con ceivably may result in an actual decline in output. Any further gain in total industrial output will come as a result o f: (1) increased capacity in the form of new plant and equipment, or, (2) an increase in the manufacturing labor force, or, (3) increased efficien cy or productivity of the labor force. Since the new plant and equipment for wrar manu facture in this district is now virtually complete, there will be no striking additional gains in total productive capacity after the close of this year. The labor force is rather fully employed, and the addi tion of new workers probably will lift total output only in small degree, although shifts of workers may well increase the proportion of total production that is for war purposes. The productive efficiency of the labor force could increase considerably as workers become better trained and as operations become more standardized. A ny such increase is likely to be curtailed, however, in large measure by the rather continuous changes in schedules and specifications that are evidently necessary in the war production program. Reflecting the difficulty of increasing industrial output above the extremely high level now obtained, the Federal Reserve revised index of industrial pro duction, adjusted for seasonal variation, in Septem ber stood at 243 per cent of the 1935-39 average, having gained 1 point in the month. Approximately 70 per cent of total industrial output, as measured by the index, is now for war. Production of durable goods, which are primarily for war at present, gained 2 points during September, while non-durable goods output held steady. In this district, consumption of industrial elec tricity at major cities in September was off 3 per cent from August, but was 18 per cent above Sep tember, 1942. Output of steel ingots and castings increased slightly in the month, while production of industrial alcohol was in slightly smaller volume than in August. September shoe production in the district, according to preliminary reports w^as down slightly from August, but was 7 per cent above a year earlier. Output of coal at Eighth District mines in Sep tember was 5 per cent less than in August, but 6 per cent more than in September, 1942. Lumber production at district mills during September fell off slightly from August levels and continued below^ output in the comparable period last year. D IS T R IC T S U R V E Y M A N U F A C T U R IN G Iron and Steel— In the St. Louis area, production of steel ingots and castings during September was in slightly greater volume than in August. The rate of ingot operations during September averaged about 100 per cent of capacity as compared with 97 per cent in August. During the first part of October, however, a recurrence of industrial disputes in the steel industry in this section again curtailed output. It is anticipated that a considerable addition to steel making capacity will begin production within the coming month in the St. Louis district. These Additional furnaces will increase the demand for scrap appreciably. During the past month, scrap collection and processing has been in better volume than throughout the summer, and quality of scrap received at mills and foundries is generally higher. The increase in volume, however, is not judged Page 2 sufficient to maintain capacity operations of the old plus the new furnaces. Shoes — Shoe production in the Eighth District in September, according to preliminary estimates, declined 3 per cent from August, but was 7 per cent above September, 1942. Final August figures on shoe output in the district totaled 6,890,000 pairs as compared with 6,882,000 pairs last year. For the first nine months of 1943, however, produc tion of shoes in this area was 4 per cent below out put in the comparable period last year. In only three months this year has shoe production exceeded that of the corresponding month a year ago. Reports from throughout this area indicate that shoe facto ries generally are suffering from labor, material, and machinery shortages with all three factors sharing almost equally in responsibility for the decline in output from a year earlier. Whiskey — At the end of September, 49 of the 60 Kentucky distilleries were in operation producing industrial alcohol, one less than a month earlier and seven less than a year ago. Continued drouth in various sections of Kentucky is reported as the major cause for reduced operations since many of the plants outside Louisville depend entirely on natural sources of water supply. A considerable amount of water is necessary for production. Stocks of bourbon whiskey, while still large, are being generally rationed by distributors to retailers because of anticipation that whiskey production will not be resumed for some time in the future. Trade sources indicate that a shortage is developing in new brands of blended whiskey which have been placed on the market in recent months in an effort to re lieve the situation. Miscellaneous Manufacturing — Production of chemicals in district plants wT maintained at ex as tremely high levels during September, with virtually all the production going for war or vital civilian purposes. Output of munitions at district ordnance plants was at about the same level as a month earlier as program changes and production cut-backs in some items were offset by increased output in other lines. Food processing plants increased their activity considerably as produce flowed to canning and dehydrating factories, and as the run of live stock gained in volume. Increased livestock slaughter in the St. Louis area recently brought an appeal from some packing plants for soldier workers. R E T A IL AN D W H O L E S A L E T R A D E The dollar volum e of department store trade in the Eighth District in September was 19 per cent greater than August, and 14 per cent above a year ago. The gain in the past month was somewhat less than seasonal, although the earlier mailing date for packages abroad this year was expected to bring an exceptionally high volum e of sales in September. As compared with a month ago, September sales in major Eighth District cities showed a rather uniform gain. Measured against 1942, Fort Smith, Arkansas, and Springfield, Missouri, registered the most im pressive rises, with relatively small gains com ing in the larger cities of St. Louis and Louisville. In view of the fact that both Fort Smith and Spring field are not war industry centers, their gains from a year ago are particularly striking. The increase in sales from September, 1942, is attributable primarily to the gain in men’s and w om en’s wearing apparel sales. W om en ’s clothing sales in September, 1943, at major department stores in the district, were about 22 per cent greater in dollar volume than a year earlier, while men’s wear sales were up about 16 per cent. At St. Louis, wom en’s apparel store sales in September, 1943, were up 33 per cent from a year earlier. H ouse hold furniture sales at department stores in Sep tember, 1943, were only 2 per cent above their vol ume of a year earlier, reflecting primarily shortages of durable items such as ice boxes, stoves, etc. Sales at Eighth District furniture stores in September were up 5 per cent from a year earlier, and were 4 per cent above August. Department store stocks were unchanged in Sep tember from August but were 6 per cent below a year ago. Increases in inventories of w om en’s wear were more than offset by declines in virtually all other lines. Furniture store stocks in September were 24 per cent below September, 1942. Collection ratios at department and furniture stores in the district in September showed marked improvement over a year ago. Collections at de partment stores in September on open book receiv ables outstanding at the end of August ran 68 per cent as compared Avith 66 per cent a year ago. On instalment accounts the ratio improved strikingly, with that of September, 1943, equaling 36 per cent as against 24 per cent in September, 1942. Total collections at furniture stores this month averaged 28 per cent of all receivables outstanding, while a year ago the ratio was but 23 per cent. Sales of wholesalers and jobbers in this district in September declined 3 per cent from August but were 1 per cent above a year ago. W holesalers’ stocks gained 2 per cent in the month but were 19 per cent below September, 1942. C O ST O F L IV IN G Between August IS and September 15, the Bureau of Labor Statistics index of cost of living in the United States rose 0.4 per cent. For the first time since June this index failed to register a decrease. Food prices rose 0.1 per cent. At mid-September, the cost of living index stood at 123.9 per cent of the 1935-39 average, or 5.2 per cent above the level of a year earlier. National policy at present is directed toward bringing the cost of living back to the Sep tember, 1942, level. Between September, 1942, and May, 1943, the cost of living in the United States rose 6.2 per cent. A c cording to O P A , three-fifths of this increase was due to rising prices of fresh fruits and vegetables. A projected O P A program calls for reduction in price of eighteen foods, which alone accounted for a 4.4 per cent rise in living costs between Septem ber, 1942, and May, 1943. If they can be brought back to September, 1942 levels, and another 1 per cent cut off the index by more strict enforcement, Page 3 living costs will be less than 1 per cent above Sep tember, 1942. On O ctober 14, O P A announced a change in retail price ceilings for thirteen fresh vegetables. The new ceilings will cut the cost of these food items as much as 30 and 50 per cent. Cost of living in St. Louis on September 15 was 0.1 per cent less than a month earlier but 5.1 per cent above a year ago. In Memphis, which is not covered by the m onthly index, living costs rose 7.6 per cent in the year. Rising food costs in these cities accounted for most of the gain in over-all cost of living. Cost of food in Louisville and Memphis increased 0.1 per cent in the past month, but St. Louis food costs dropped 0.8 per cent wrhile the de cline in Little R ock was 1.9 per cent. Compared with September, 1942, the gain in food costs in the district ranged from 14.3 per cent in Memphis to 4.5 per cent in Little Rock. EM PLOYM ENT The over-all supply of labor in the district con tinues to be adequate to meet demand although certain localities are experiencing various degrees of labor shortage. There are, of course, numerous instances of critical shortages of certain highly skilled workers in both industry and agriculture, but such shortages are national in scope and prob ably cannot be relieved appreciably regardless of the number of available workers that are at hand in the district. In general, industrial demand for labor is being met, with transfer of workers from nonessential lines and recruitment from without the normal labor force. There are, however, some lines of manufacturing activity where it has proved very difficult to secure the number of workers necessary for sustained high operations. It is estimated that non-agricultural employment in this district in July, the latest month for which figures are available, totaled 2,574,000, or 2 per cent more than in July, 1942, but 2 per cent less than the peak reached in December, 1942. Agricultural labor supply in this area has been generally adequate so far this year, although scattered localities report difficulties in obtaining necessary help. A G R IC U L T U R E General Conditions — Drouth, which had been rather general over the southern portion of the dis trict throughout July and August, was relieved by rainfall in the first and third weeks of September. The rain aided in preparing soil for fall plow ing and benefited pastures and some late maturing crops. Such crops as late corn, sweet potatoes, dark tobacco, and some vegetables for processing were aided, but cotton, which was being harvested before Septem ber, was somewhat reduced in grade by the moisture. Page 4 In general, the precipitation came too late in the season to help materially the district crop outlook for this year. W hile prospects for eight m ajor dis trict field crops improved slightly as a somewrhat better outlook for corn, hay, tobacco, and potatoes more than offset the decline indicated for rice and cotton, 1943 indicated production of these crops on October 1 was 11 per cent lower than their 1942 harvest. In the district, only the 1943 wheat and tobacco crops of the eight major ones, will exceed their 1942 production. Fruit and vegetable produc tion in the district 'this year is considerably less than in 1942. Even with higher prices than obtained last year, district income from crops in the present marketing year may not exceed that received in the 1942-43 season, inasmuch as total output is off so much. Livestock income this year, however, will be appre ciably higher as a result of record production and increased prices. For the first eight months of this year, cash farm income in Eighth District states totaled $2,135 million as against $1,621 million in the comparable period in 1942. M ajor marketing opera tions normally do not take place until after Septem ber in this district, however, and it is expected that farm income in the final four months of 1943 will not register the pronounced gains from a year earlier that occurred in the first eight months of the year. Cotton — A ccording to the October 1 estimate of the U. S. Department of Agriculture, cotton pros pects in the Eighth District declined 2 per cent in the month of September. The indicated 1943 crop now stands at 3,219,000 bales as compared with a production of 3,922,000 bales in 1942. Three of the four Eighth District major cotton producing states registered decreased prospects in September, but most of the damage to the cotton crop in the district had been done prior to September 1, by abnormally high temperatures and lack of rain. The rainfall in September damaged the crop further by causing some seed germination in the boll, and cutting to some extent the grade and quality of the crop. Up to September 1, cotton picked in the district *was of excellent quality although somewhat shorter in staple than is usual. The district cotton crop this year developed from twro to three weeks earlier than normally. Up to O ctober 1, ginnings in Eighth District states totaled 1,150,000 bales, or 31 per cent of the crop as compared with 590,000 bales, or 13 per cent of the crop-in 1942. Approxim ately half of the total United States crop had been ginned by October 1. Mill demand for cotton is not exceptionally strong at present, and there is little forward buying from shippers by mills. Reports from various sections of the district indicate a strong tendency on the part of the farmers to hold cotton, and there is no great m ovement into the loan, although loan rates are ap preciably higher than last year, and in some cases are not much below mill offering prices to shippers. Fruits and Vegetables — In this district, declines from the 1942 harvest have been much more pro nounced than in the nation. Late spring frosts and excessive rain plus abnormal summer drouth re sulted in large declines in yield on acreage that was badly cut by flood. Output of snap beans and tomatoes for processing in district states is indi cated at 38 and 33 per cent less, respectively, than in 1942. Production of apples is estimated at 12 per cent below a year ago. Both the peach and pear crops have yielded less than half of last year’s production. Grains and Feed Crops— September weather proved generally favorable for the late development of such cereal and feed crops as remained unharvested in this district, and with the exception of rice and soy beans, prospects of most district crops improved measureably in the month. A ccording to U. S. D e partment of Agriculture, wheat and oats production estimates for the Eighth District on October 1 were unchanged from September 1, and were 28,695,000 bushels and 65,861,000 bushels, respectively. W heat production this year is 23 per cent greater than 1942 but 48 per cent belowr the ten-year (1932-41) aver age, while the oat crop is 14 per cent off from 1942 but up 40 per cent from average. Corn prospects rose 3 per cent in the month, and the 1943 district harvest is now indicated at 354,280,000 bushels w^hich is 39,000 bushels less than in 1942 but 51,000 bushels more than ten-year average output. Hay prospects improved 5 per cent during September, and are estimated at 7,901,000 tons as compared with 9,327,000 tons last year and 6,229,000 tons on the average in the 1932-41 period. Output of sor ghums is indicated at slightly above the September 1 estimate but is expected to be off about 23 per cent from 1942. Rice prospects dropped 4 per cent in the month, and the crop is now estimated at 12.690.000 bushels, or 6 per cent less than the 1942 yield of 13,515,000 bushels. Soybeans are indicated at some 2 per cent less than in 1942. Livestock — Receipts of livestock at St. Louis in September were 2 per cent above August and 3 per cent above September, 1942, Increases of 34,000 and 4.000 head, respectively, in cattle and hog receipts were offset by a drop of 24,000 head in sheep re ceipts in the month. A s compared with September, 1942, both cattle and sheep receipts were off fraction ally, but hog receipts were up 19,000 head. In the first week of October, hog receipts fell sharply at St. Louis, although marketings of the spring pig crop normally begin at that time. Trade sources attributed the decline largely to the live hog ceilings that went into effect on October 4, although reports from most outside markets and from other parts of the district indicate that marketings in creased after O ctober 1. Movement to market at St. Louis increased considerably in the two weeks end ing October 23. The O P A ceiling on hogs is $14.75 per cwt. (Chicago basis) and varies according to the normal differentials between Chicago and other major markets. In an effort to increase slaughter, the W ar Food Administration suspended all livestock slaughter quota limitations from September 1 to October 31, and all inventory restrictions on slaughterers until further notice. September federally inspected slaughter of cattle and calves, hogs, and sheep and lambs was up slightly from a year ago at twelve major stations in the United States. A t St. Louis, however, inspected hog slaughter was off 3 per cent from September, 1942, while cattle and sheep slaughter were both down fractionally. Tobacco — Rainfall in the tobacco belt during September caused a surprising upturn of 6 per cent in crop prospects according to the U. S. Department of Agriculture. Production of all types of toba'cco in the Eighth District this year is estimated at 267,040,000 pounds, or 10 per cent more than the 1942 crop of 242,243,000 pounds. During early O cto ber, scattered localities experienced a light frost, but apparently tobacco was very little damaged. The rainfall delayed to some extent curing of that portion of the burley crop which had been harvested. Most of the burley now has been cut and housed, and by m id-October most early and middle cuttings of the crop were very well cured. In the dark-fired tobacco region, harvesting of the crop was interrupted by rainfall in September, but clear weather stimulated harvesting in -the early part of October, and by the middle of the month, only remnants of the crop remained in the fields. A portion of this type of tobacco has been cured and preliminary reports indicate color to be brown to dark-brown with m ostly medium body. A bout 85 per cent of the Green River crop had been cut by October 1, and by the middle of the month virtually all tobacco of this type had been harvested. The early tobacco is short in length and medium in body, but the later harvest seems to have good body and size. Page 5 BANKING AND FINANCE The final results of the Third War Loan showed that $18,943 million in securities were sold during the period of the drive. $630 million of this amount was purchased by Government agencies and trust funds. About 75 per cent of the total amount of all securities sold consisted of the major issues of % per cent certificates, and 2 and 2*A per cent bonds. Sales of $5,377 million to individuals exceeded the quota set for such sales by 8 per cent, while other inves tors bought 29 per cent more securities than their quota. Every state contained in whole or in part in this district sold more securities than its over-all quota 'called for. Two states, Illinois and Missouri, failed to reach their quotas for total sales to individuals, and two states, Arkansas and Kentucky, did not make the quotas set for sales to other investors. Reflecting primarily heavy purchases of securi ties during the drive, demand deposits adjusted at 24 reporting Eighth District banks declined about $175 million from September 8 to October 6. During the same period, United States Government deposits, which are mostly held in the form of War Loan Account, rose about $220 million. On October 6, these deposits in the 24 reporting banks totaled al most $300 million to reach a new peak, $80 million over the previous one attained at the close of the Second War Loan Drive. In the week ending Octo ber 13, demand deposits adjusted at these banks in creased $38 million, evidently reflecting the con tinued building up of balances by individuals and businesses, partly as a result of increased sales and partly due to creation of deposits through lending. Total loans of weekly reporting banks in this dis trict rose $76 million in the period from September 8 to October 13. Most of the rise came in commer cial, agricultural, and industrial loans as a result of increased utilization of commitments made under Regulation V loans. Loans to dealers and to others for the purpose of carrying securities rose about $7 million in the period. “ Other loans” increased about $19 million. A considerable portion of these loans, plus some classified as commercial or industrial, probably were for the purpose of making income tax payments on September 15. Total investments at the reporting banks increased $35 million from Sep tember 8 to October 13 as banks bought securities in the open market. Since payment for the % certifi cates and 2 per cent bonds offered to banks after the War Loan Drive closed was not made until October 15, the rise in investments resulting from this is not reflected in the statement of the 13th. Page 6 C A SH F A R M IN C O M E ( I n thousands o f dollars) _______ A u gu st 1943 1942 A rkansas..................$15,234 99,110 I llin o is...................... Ind iana.................... 57,520 K en tu ck y................ 21,819 M ississippi........... 32,0.11 M issouri.................. 54,175 Tennessee................ 15,956 T o ta ls .................. Cum ulative fo r 8 m onths 1943 1942 1941 $ 9,252 77,148 48,187 17,528 11,417 45,421 13,222 222,175 295,825 $130,284 722,743 410,199 203,836 119,685 389,395 159,357 $104,375 572,285 318,102 139,789 73,491 297,166 115,734 2,135,499 $ 64,385 412,782 221,488 102,185 52,579 209,602 83,631 1,621,392 1,146,652 R E C E IP T S A N D S H IP M E N T S A T N A T IO N A L S T O C K Y A R D S R eceipts Shipments Sept., 1943 A u g ., 1943 Sept., 1942 Sept., 1943 Cattle and C alves........... 187,654 154,937 189,494 H o g s ................................... 232,290 228,385 213,200 Horses and M u les......... 3,450 3,675 2,260 Sheep................................. 109,468 135,444 112,647 T o ta ls .............................532,862 522,441 W H O L E S A L E P R IC E S IN Bureau o f Labor Sept., A u g ., Statistics 1943 1943 (1 9 2 6 = 1 0 0 ) Sept. 15, 1943 United States____ St. L o u is ........... . M em phis........... . *N ot available. Bureau o f Labor Statistics (1 9 3 5 -3 9 = 1 0 0 ) 105,931 78,875 3,412 22,987 Sept., 1942 84,301 85,193 3,655 41,323 95,204 38,741 2,251 32,849 211,205 214,472 169,045 U N IT E D Sept., 1942 STATES Sept.,’ 43 com p , with S e p t./4 2 A u g .,’ 43 99.6 107.8 102.4 95.5 -0 - % + 0.1 — 0.8 + 0.1 + 3 .5 % + 14.7 + 2.5 + 1.8 CO ST O F L I V I N G A u g. 15, Sept. 15, Sept. 15/43 com p, with 1943 1942 A u g. 15,’43 Sept. 15/42 123.9 122.6 128.4 Sept. 16, 1943 U . S. (51 cities) . . . St. L o u is ........... Little R ock L ou isville........... M em phis............. THE 103.1 123.5 105.8 97.1 A ll C om m odities. . 103.1 Farm P roducts.,. 123.6 F o o d s ................ .. 105.0 O th e r.................. . 97.2 Bureau o f Labor Statistics (1 93 5 -3 9= 1 0 0) 517,60,1 A u g ., 1943 123.4 122.7 * 117.8 116.6 119.3 + 0.4% — 0.1 * + + + 5.2% 5.1 7.6 CO ST O F F O O D A u g. 17, Sept. 15, Sept. 16/43 com p, with 1943 1942 A u g. 1 7/4 3 Sept. 15/4 2 137.4 139.1 135.0. 134.9 148.2 137.2 140.2 137.6 134.7 148.0 + 126.6 126.7 129.2 124.2 129.7 0.1 % 0.8 , 1.9 — + + 0.1 0.1 + + + + 8.5 % 9.8 4.5 8.6 + 14.3 IN D E X E S O F E M P L O Y M E N T IN M A N U F A C T U R IN G IN D U S T R IE S B Y M E T R O P O L IT A N A R E A S Bureau o f L abor Statistics A u g ., July, A u g ., A u g .,*43 com p, with (1937= 10,0) 1943 1943 1942 J u ly /4 3 A u g .,M2 Evansville................ L ou isville................ M em phis.................. St. L o u is .................. 292.7 131.8 165.5 160.7 292.5 130.7 162.1 161.5 124.0. 104.6 136.0 138.9 + + + — 0 .1 % 0.8 2.1 0.5 + 1 3 6 .0 % + 26.0 + 21.7 -j- 15.7 B U I L D IN G P E R M IT S N ew C onstruction ________ R epairs, etc. N um ber N um ber C ost Cost 1943 1942 1943 1942 1943 1942 1943 1942 (C ost in thousands) L ittle R o c k . . . . . . 4* 13 51 63 73 Sept. Totals . 204 A ugu st T o ta ls . . . 288 *Conversions. 52 12 141 60 127 392 334 $ 10 $ 171 2 3 289 1,223 10 62 59 171 214 107 47 456 172 62 93 39 271 158 $ 54 22 36 260 93 $ 21 24 32 88 56 370 347 996 873 623 593 465 374 221 319 1,630 1,062 V A L U E C O N S T R U C T IO N C O N T R A C T S L E T ( I n thousands S ept.,’ 43 com p, with o f dollars) Sept.,*43 A u g .,*43 S ept.,*42 A u g .,’43 Sept.,’ 42 T otal 8th D is t.. . $ 1 1 ,6 1 9 $ 9,044 S ou rce: F . W . D o d g e C orporation. ( K .W .H . in thous.) $ 50,628 + 28% — 7 7% C O N S U M P T IO N O F E L E C T R IC IT Y N o. o f Sept., A u g ., S ept., Septem ber, 1943 Custom - 1943 1943 1942 com pared with ers* K .W .H . K .W .H . K .W .H . A u g ., 1943 Sept., 1942 E v a n s v ille .... 40 L ittle R o c k . . . 35 L ou isville......... 82 M em phis........... 31 Pine B lu ff......... 20 St. L o u is......... 137 10,864 3,269 17,558 5,901 7,200 95,089 T o ta ls ........... 345 139,881 *Selected industrial custom ers. 11,223 3,037 17,092 6,343 6,433 99,988** 5,457** 2,087** 16,112 5,452 1,785 87,470** 144,116** 118,363** **R evised. — 3% + 8 + 3 — 7 +12 — 5 — 3 +99% + 57 + 9 + 8 +303 + 9 + 18 D E P A R T M E N T ST O R E S S tocks on H and S tock T urnover Sept. 3 0/4 3 com p, with Sept. 30./42 Jan. 1, to Sept. 30, 1943 1942 N et Sales September, 1943 com pared with A u g .,’ 43 S e p t ./42 9 m os.’ 43 to same p e r io d ’42 Ft. Smith, A r k .. + 2 7 % +38% +32% 2.79 2.27 + 229 Little R ock , A rk. + 2 9 +17 +31 22 3.08 2.60 Quincy, 111.......... + 2 0 +14 +17 Evansville, In d .. + 2 2 +15 +38 3.92 2.53 — 19 Louisville, K y . . . + 1 8 + 6 +16 St. Louis, M o . .. + 1 7 +10 + 7 — 11 3.10 2.34 Springfield, M o. + 2 1 +40 +29 2.88 1.85 + 8 3.34 2.24 Mem phis, Tenn. + 1 8 +27 +30 -0 *A11 other cities. + 1 8 + 2 + 9 2.94 2.45 + 10 — 5 3.21 2.37 8th F . R . D is t.. + 1 9 +14 +15 *E1 D orado, Fayetteville, Pine B luff, A r k .; A lton, East St. L ouis, H arrisburg, M t. V ernon, 111.; Vincennes, I n d .; Danville, H opkinsville, M ayfield, Paducah, K y . ; Chillicothe, M o .; Jackson, Tenn. Trading d a y s: September, 1943— 2 5 ; A ugust, 1943— 2 6 ; September, 1942— 25. Outstanding orders o f reporting stores at the end o f September, 1943, were 148 per cent greater than on the corresponding date a year ago. Percentage o f accounts and notes receivable outstanding September 1, 1943, collected during September, by cities: Instalm ent E xcl. Instal. Instalm ent E xcl. Instal. A ccou n ts A ccoun ts A ccoun ts A ccounts + F ort S m ith ........... % Little R ock . . 24 L ou isville. . . . 34 Memphis . . . . 44 63 % 58 65 64 Q u in cy ......... * . St. Louis . . . . Other cities . . 8th F. R . D ist. 31% 39 31 36 80% 72 65 68 IN D E X E S O F D E P A R T M E N T ST O R E S A L E S A N D ST O C K S 8th Federal Reserve District (1923-1925 average = 1 0 0 ) Sept., A u g ., July, Sept., 1943 1943 1942 1942 Sales (d aily average), U nadju sted.................... Sales (daily average), Seasonally a d ju s t e d ... Stocks, U nad ju sted ................................................... Stocks, Seasonally a d ju s t e d ................................. S P E C IA L T Y 151 142 112 106 122 163 111 112 STO RE S N et Sales September, 1943 9 m os.,43 com pared with to same A u g .,*43 S ept.,*42 period ’42 Stocks on H and Sept. 30/43 com p, with Sept. 30/42 10,8 156 103 110 131 122 119 112 S tock Turnover Jan. 1 to Sept. 30, 1943 1942 M en’s Furnishings + 7 1 % + 2 4 % + 5% — 18% 2.37 1.92 B oots and S h oes. +29 — 20 — 8 — 24 6.29 5.44 Percentage o f accounts and notes receivable outstanding September 1, 1943, collected during Septem ber: M en’s F urnishings........... ........ 4 8% B oots and S h oes............................50% R E T A IL F U R N IT U R E STO RE S N et Sales Inventories Ratio of September, 1943 September 3 0 /4 3 Collections com pared with com pared with A u g .,*43 S ep t./4 2 A u g .3 1 /4 3 S ept.30/42 S ept./4 3 Sept.,’ 42 St. L ouis A rea 1 . + 8.0 % + 1 1 .9 % — 3.3% — 17.7% 28.9% 23.7% St. L o u is ......... + 8.5 + 13.1 — 3.3 — 17.7 28.6 23.5 * * A lt o n ................ — 2.6 — 11.1 35.4 28.4 — 6.0 L ouisville A rea 2 , — 4.4 + 4.2 . — 33.2 23.3 18.2 L o u is v ille .. . . , — 9.2 — 3.5 + 3.1 22.9 17.2 — 41.6 N ew A lb a n y . . + 2 5 .0 — 15.5 + 7.6 25.9 26.3 + 11.4 M em phis............. + 2.1 -0 — 3.8 — 35.7 24.6 17.8 Little R o c k ......... — 10.2 — 7.4 — 3.3 28.1 22.7 — 22.6 * * * * S pringfield ......... . — 4.7 + 7.6 8th D ist.TotalsS. + 4.3 + 4.5 — 1.2 28.2 — 23.8 22.5 *N ot shown separately due to insufficient coverage, but included in E ighth D istrict totals. lln clu d e s St. L ouis, M issou ri; East St. Louis, and A lton, Illinois. 2Includes Louisville, K en tu ck y ; N ew A lbany, and Jeffersonville, Indiana. 3In ^ d d itio n to above cities, includes stores in Blytheville, Pine Bluff, A rkansas; Evansville, In d ia n a ; H enderson, H opkinsville, Ow ensboro, Paducah, K en tu ck y ; Columbus, Greenville, Greenwood, Starkville, M is sissippi; H annibal, M issou ri; and D yersburg, Tennessee. P E R C E N T A G E D IS T R IB U T IO N O F SA L E S Sept., *43 A u g ., *43 Sept., *42 Cash S a l e s ................................................. 17% Credit S ales................................................. 83 T otal Sales...............................................100 18% 82 100 15% 85 100 L O A D S IN T E R C H A N G E D F O R 25 R A IL R O A D S A T ST. L O U IS First nine days S ept./4 3 A u g ./4 3 S ep t./4 2 O c t./4 3 O c t./4 2 9 m o s/4 3 9 m o s/4 2 158,392 161,951 149,585 48,846 44,930 1,331,521 S ou rce: Term inal R ailroad A ssociation o f St. Louis. 1,243,289 W H O L E S A L IN G Lines o f Com m odities N et Sales Data furnished b y Bureau o f Census, Stocks September, 1943 Sept. 30, 1943 U . S. Dept, o f Comm erce. s “ ” 16^42 A utom otive Supplies. B oots and S hoes......... 8% + — 2 + 19 D ry G o o d s................ — 8 Electrical S upplies. 8 + Furniture.................. — 7 5 + H ardw are............................................ 17 Plumbing Supplies............................ + 10 T ob a cco and its P ro d u cts................ 9 + 7 M iscellaneous..................................... + Total all lines*.................................... 3 — ^Includes certain lines not listed above. + •— + + — — + — — + + + ••i 1% 3 15 2 3 8 14 17 25 21 18 1 — 18 — 28 ^ 16 — 15 .... — 10 — 19 C O M M E R C IA L F A IL U R E S IN E IG H T H F. R. D IS T R IC T S ept./4 3 com p, with S e p t./4 3 A u g ./4 3 S e p t./4 2 A u g ./4 3 S ept./4 2 N um ber................ 1 Liabilities........... $ 11,0.00 S o u rce : D un and Bradstreet. 3 $ 70,000 15 $153,000 — 67% — 84 — 93% — 83 C H A N G E S IN P R IN C IP A L A S S E T S A N D L IA B I L I T IE S F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U IS Change from O ct. 13, Sept. 15, O ct. 14, (I n thousands o f dollars) 1943 1943 1942 $ Other advances and rediscounts. ......... 2,000 382,562 + T otal earning a s s e t s .................................... 384,562 771,763 513,850. 657,032 Industrial commitments under Sec. 1 3 b .. 937 * 7*600 21,342 — — 62 + 1,805 +20 3 ,8 0 5 + 13,742 + 2 0 5 ,5 4 8 + + + 28,463 20,757 20,164 + 46,115 + 52,717 + 20 5 ,1 1 2 661 — — 342 P R IN C IP A L R E S O U R C E A N D L I A B I L I T Y IT E M S O F R E P O R T IN G M E M B E R B A N K S Change from O ct. 13, Sept. 15, O ct. 14, (I n thousands o f dollars) 1943 1943 1942 T otal loans and investm ents.......................$1,552,801 + 62,787 + 39 9 ,9 6 4 + 62,787 4 Commercial, industrial, agricultural loans* 258,547 + 31,463 + L oans to brokers and dealers in securities. 7,130 + 1,971 + 3,999 Other loans to purchase and carry securities 11,783 + 3,166 + 2,073 Real estate loans............................................ 64,634 — 213 + 1,306 Loans to banks............................................... 4,085 + 3,505 + 3,177 Other loans....................................................... 79,662 + 13,218 + 10,314 Total loans..................................................... 425,841 + 53,110 + 20,873 Treasury bills..................................................... 120,176 + 10,896 + 42,534 Certificates o f Indebtedness...................... 213,251 — 6,553 + 73,604 Treasury n otes................................................... 149,445 414 + 79,465 U . S. b on d s....................................................... 496,982 + 7,356 + 192,615 Obligations guaranteed b y U . S. G ov t.. 34,854 — 11 — 115 Other securities................................................. 112,252 — 1,597 — 9,012 Total investments........................................ 1,126,960 + 9,677 + 37 9 ,0 9 1 Balances with dom estic banks.................. 115,903 — 6,015 — 34,067 Demand deposits — ad ju sted **................ 856,846 — 64,383 + 59,415 Tim e deposits................................................... 211,283 — 521 + 22,070. U . S. Government d eposits......................... 297,362 + 123,537 + 27 3 ,4 6 5 Interbank deposits.......................................... 510,031 + 4,704 + 4,488 B orrow ings....................................................... ........... — 9,600, * Includes open market paper. **O ther than interbank and Governm ent deposits, less cash items on hand o r in process o f collection. A bov e figures are for 24 m ember banks in St. Louis, Louisville, M em phis, L ittle R ock and Evansville. T heir resources com prise approxim ately 75% o f the resources o f all m em ber banks in this district. ( I n thousands o f dollars) D E B IT S T O IN D IV ID U A L Sept., A u g ., 1943 1943 E l Dorado, A rk ........... $ 12,147 F ort Smith, A rk ......... , 24,851 5,728 Helena, A rk. i ............. 78,787 Little R ock, A rk......... 21,820 Pine B luff, A r k ., . , 19,416 Texarkana, A rk.-T ex. 14,159 A lton, 111..................... . E .S t.L .-N a t.S .Y .,Ill.. 84,123 15,977 104,933 Evansville, In d ........... 345,227 Louisville, K y ............. 14,438 O w ensboro, K y ........... 7,453 Paducah, K y ............... 12,806 Greenville, M iss......... 5,854 Cape Girardeau, M o .. 4,825 Hannibal, M o ............. , 25,063 Jefferson City, M o ___ St. L ouis, M o ............. 1,090,860, 5,739 Sedalia, M o ................. Springfield, M o ........... 31,314 10,949 Jackson, T enn............. Memphis, T enn........... 291,119 T ota ls........... ............ 2,227,588 (Completed October 25* 1943) $ 9,666 20,386 3,284 60,633 13,004 15,614 12,673 75,067 13,799 88,702 285,486 12,492 7,013 6,446 4,694 3,828 22,863 885,183 4,985 26,623 7,566 183,242 1,763,249 $ ACCOUNTS Sept., S e p t./4 3 com p, with 1942 A u g ./4 3 Sept.,*42 10,361 18,722 4,014 79,670 23,995 14,249 11,268 79,124 12,735 65,451 265,586 12,949 8,702 8,270 4,546 4,137 25,364 868,625 4,461 ' 25,540 8,180 231,662 1,787,611 + 2 6% + 22 + 74 + 30 + 68 + 24 + 12 + 12 + 16 + 18 + 21 + 16 + 6 + 99 + 25 + 26 + 10 + ,23 + ‘ 15 + 18 + 45 + 59 + 26 + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + 17% 33 43 1 9 36 26 6 25 60 30 12 14 55 29 17 1 26 29 23 34 26 + 25 — Page 7 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION N A T IO N A L S U M M A R Y O F C O N D ITIO N S B Y BO ARD OF G OVERNORS OF FE D E R A L RESER VE SYSTEM Federal Reserve indexes. Groups are expressed in terms of points in the total index. Monthly figures, latest shown are for September, 1943. DEPARTMENT STORE SALES AND STOCKS Federal Reserve indexes. are for September, 1943. Monthly figures, latest shown GOVERNMENT SECURITY HOLDINGS OF BANKS IN LEADING CITIES Excludes guaranteed securities. Data not available prior to February 8, 1939; certificates first reported on April 15, 1942. Wednesday figures, latest shown are for October 13, 1943. MEMBER BANKS IN LEADING CITIES Demand deposits (adjusted) exclude U . S. Government and interbank deposits and collection items. Government securities include direct and guaranteed issues. Wednes day figures, latest shown are for October 13, 1943. Page 8 Industrial activity showed little change in September and in the first half of October. Distribution o f commodities continued in large volume and prices remained steady. Industrial production — Physical volume o f industrial production as measured by the Board's seasonally adjusted index, as recently revised, was 243 per cent o f the 1935-39 average in September, compared with 242 in August and 239 in July. There were increases in output in the iron and steel and transportation equipment industries while activity in other durable goods industries showed little change or declined slightly. Open hearth and Bessemer steel production exceeded its previous peak level, reached in March o f this year, and output of pig iron likewise established a new record. In the machinery industry as a whole activity was maintained at the level o f recent months although there was some further curtailment o f output o f machine tools and machine tool accessories. Total output o f nondurable manufactures continued at the August level. Cotton consumption, which had been declining since May, rose 6 per cent from August to September, but was 9 per cent below the high level o f a year ago. Shoe production was maintained at the level o f recent months and was slightly larger than a year ago. The output o f manufactured food products rose seasonally. Petroleum refining continued to rise in September and was at a rate about double the 1935-39 average. The Board’s index o f this industry is sub stantially higher than the old index because greater weight is given to avia tion gasoline and other special war products. Output in the chemical industry as a whole declined in August, as some further expansion in industrial chem icals was more than offset in the total by reductions elsewhere, reflecting readjustment o f the war program. Newsprint consumption rose less than is usual at this season, in the face o f increasing supply difficulties, and a further 5 per cent cut in permitted consumption o f newsprint was ordered beginning October 1. Crude petroleum production continued to rise in September, reflecting fur ther improvement o f transportation facilities for petroleum products. Out put o f crude petroleum in August and September exceeded the earlier peak reached in December, 1941 and January, 1942. Coal production continued at a high level. In September the value o f construction contracts awarded in 37 Eastern states was at about the same low level as in July, according to reports o f the F. W . Dodge Corporation, and was considerably smaller than in August when there was a temporary increase because one exceptionally large con tract was placed in that month. Distribution — Department store sales increased less than seasonally in September, following an unusually large volume o f sales in July and August, and the Board’s seasonally adjusted index declined from 142 to 131. During the first half o f October sales showed a gain over September although usually there is some decline at this season. Railroad freight traffic in September and the first part o f October was maintained at the high level o f previous months. Coal shipments exceeded the record movement o f last July and loadings o f grain and livestock were 10 per cent higher than a year ago. C om m odity prices — Prices o f grains advanced from the middle o f September to the middle o f October. Livestock prices were slightly lower, reflecting partly the establishment o f Federal maximum prices for live hogs and sharply increased marketings o f cattle. Wholesale prices o f most other commodities continued to show little change. Agriculture — Crop prospects showed little change during September, according to official reports There was a further small improvement in pros pects for the corn and potato crops, while the previous forecast for cotton production was lowered slightly. Aggregate crop production is expected to be 7 per cent below the peak volume o f last season but higher than in any other previous year. Bank credit — During the five weeks ending October 13, Government security holdings at reporting banks in 101 leading cities increased by about 2.5 billion dollars reflecting substantial open-market purchases during the the Drive, and also, some purchases o f bills on subscription from the Treasury. Loans showed a net increase o f 2.2 billion dollars over the same period. Over two-thirds o f the total amount represented loans to brokers, dealers, and customers for purchasing or carrying securities; in the last week of the period there were some declines, however, as repayments were made on the liquidation o f the securities. Commercial loans, which have been in creasing steadily since June, rose further by 540 million over the five weeks.