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MONTHLY REVIEW O f Agricultural, Industrial, Trade and Financial Conditions in the Eighth Federal Reserve District R eleased for P u b lic a tio n O n a n d A fter th e A ftern o o n o f N o v em b er 2 9 ,1 9 3 3 JOHN S. W O O D , Chairman and Federal Reserve Agent FEDERAL RESERVE V A IL A B L E statistics and data generally bearing on business in the Eighth District ^-during the past thirty days reflected som e what spotty and irregular trends, but as a whole activities were well sustained and continued at a considerably higher rate than in the like period a year ago. Industrial production continued to con tract during O ctober and the first half of November, but in considerably less marked degree than was the case in August and September. A s in the preceding thirty days, a relatively much better showing was made in distributive lines than in manufacturing. The volum e of retail trade increased in O ctober over both the month before and a year ago. W ithout ex ception, wholesaling and jobbing lines investigated by this bank recorded gains over October, 1932, in most instances, of substantial amounts and too large to be entirely accounted for by the higher prevailing price levels. In a number of lines the October v ol ume exceeded that of September, and those classifi cations which showed declines follow ed the usual seasonal trend. A m on g the important lines showing increases in both the yearly and month-to-month comparisons were boots and shoes, clothing, dry goods, electrical supplies and furniture. Reflecting higher prices and increased volume, profits gener ally were on a more satisfactory basis than in many months. T he movement o f seasonal merchandise was adversely affected by the unusually high tempera tures which prevailed throughout the district in October and the first days of November. The warm weather also had the effect of reducing activities in certain manufacturing lines. There was a further recession in operations at iron and steel w orking plants, an exception being in the case of stoves, O ctober production and shipments in that industry being the largest since the fall of 1931. Consump tion of electric current by industrial establishments in the principal cities declined slightly in O ctober from the preceding month, but was substantially greater than a year ago. Production o f bituminous coal in fields of the Eighth District increased m od A C. M . STEWART, Secretary and Ass*t Federal Reserve Agent BANK OF ST. J. VION PAPIN, Statistician LO U IS erately from September to October, but the total was measurably below that of October, 1932. The trend of lumber production continued downward, but due chiefly to heavy demands from the cooper age industry, the output was considerably larger than at this time during the past three years. October weather was unusually favorable for harvesting of late crops and these operations were completed with a minimum of loss of quantity and quality. In the case of most important productions, earlier estimates were maintained. A constructive development in this area has been the sharp advance in prices of wheat, cotton, corn, oats and other im portant agricultural products. This change has re sulted in a noticeable stimulation in business and substantial liquidation of indebtedness in the rural areas, particularly in the south. Another favorable effect has been to bolster sentiment in the farming community. In addition to larger returns from marketing of their crops, incomes o f farmers in many sections have been augmented by receipts from the Agricultural Adjustm ent Administration. Measured by sales of department stores in the principal cities of the district, retail trade in O cto ber was 5.9 per cent greater than in September and 2.5 per cent larger than in October, 1932; cumu lative total for the first ten months was 8.2 per cent less than for the comparable period in 1932. Com bined sales of all wholesaling and jobbing firms reporting to this bank were 14 per cent and 21.5 per cent larger, respectively, than a month and a year earlier; for the ten months this year the total was 14 per cent in excess of that for the same time in 1932. The dollar value of permits issued for new buildings in the five largest cities in October was 71 per cent larger than in September, and 24 per cent less than in O ctober last y e a r; cumulative total for the first ten months this year was larger by 85 per cent than during the similar period in 1932. Con struction contracts let in the Eighth district in O ctober were 27.2 per cent less than in September and 43.9 per cent greater than in October, 1932; the cumulative total to N ovem ber 1 this year was 13.2 per cent below that of the same period a year ago. Debits to individual accounts in October were larger by 13 per cent and 10 per cent respectively, than a month and a year earlier, but the cumulative total for the first ten months this year is still 15 per cent below that for the comparable period in 1932. ceding thirty days, but were noticeably better than a year ago. Questionnaires addressed to represen tative interests in the several lines scattered through the district showed the follow ing results: Good Fair October, 1933....... 7.0% 25.6% 64.0% Freight traffic of railroads operating in this dis trict continued above that of the corresponding period last year, but the margin of increase was nar rower than at any time since last spring. Since October 1 the trend has been downward to a slightly more marked extent than is usual at this season. This was true particularly o f the movement of farm products and merchandise in less-than-car-lots, while a relatively favorable showing was made by forest products, coke and miscellaneous freight. The cumulative movement o f coal continued well ahead of a year ago. For the country as a whole, loadings of revenue freight for the first fourty-four weeks this year, or to Novem ber 4, totaled 24,637,149 cars, against 24,094,042 cars for the corresponding period in 1932, and 32,474,205 cars in 1931. The St. Louis Terminal Railway Association, which handles inter changes for twenty-eight connecting lines, inter changed 74,417 loads in October, against 72,333 loads in September and 72,992 loads in October, 1932. During the first nine days of November, the interchange amounted to 19,954 loads, which com pares with 21,285 loads during the corresponding period in October, and 17,794 loads during the first nine days o f November, 1932. Passenger traffic of the reporting roads in October decreased 6 per cent under the same month a year ago. T h e Federal Barge Line between St. Louis and New Orleans carried an estimated tonnage o f 97,300 tons in O cto ber, against 119,340 tons in September, and 109,442 tons in October, 1932. September, 1933....... 5.3 30.4 49.0 15.3 October, 1932....... 1.6 17.9 61.4 19.1 A s contrasted with the preceding month, re ports relative to collections reflected a moderate slowing down, but the showing was generally fav orable as compared with a year earlier. In the south the volume o f liquidation with both merchants and country banks was in considerable volume, particu larly in the typical cotton and rice areas. In the principal centers, retailers and jobbers report November 1 settlements about up to expectations. Retailers in the large cities continue to report spot tiness and irregularity in payments, with overdue accounts still extremely difficult to collect. P ro ducers and distributors of building materials and other descriptions o f heavy com m odities report a continuance o f the betterment in collections which began in the late summer. Conditions in the bitumi nous coal areas showed little change from the pre Excellent Poor 3.4% Commercial failures in the Eighth Federal R e serve District in October, according to Dun and Bradstreet, numbered 42 involving liabilities of $1,019,098 against 47 defaults in September, with liabilities of $656,537 and 82 insolvencies for a total of $1,648,236 in October, 1932. M oney in circulation in the United States on N ovem ber 18 was $5,673,000,000 which compares with $5,673,000,000 on October 11, and an average daily circulation of $5,643,000,000 in October, 1932. W H O L E S A L IN G AND R E T A IL IN G B oots and Shoes — October sales of the report ing interests were 29 per cent greater than for the same month in 1932, and about one-fifth larger than for the September total this year. Inventories con tinued to contract, stocks on N ovem ber 1 being 6 per cent and 17 per cent smaller, respectively, than a month and a year earlier. Production receded in October, but the rate of operations since Novem ber 1 has been at a higher than seasonal rate in order to replenish depleted inventories. Due to the con tinued active demand, which has been accompanied by higher prices, profits are on a more satisfactory basis than during the corresponding season in the past three years. Indications are that production in this district during 1933 will be the heaviest since the peak in 1929. C lothing — A ccording to the reporting firms, movement o f seasonal apparel during O ctober was below expectations, due to the unusually warm weather. Advance sales of both men’s and w om en’s clothing for late winter and spring delivery have been in considerable volume, and well in excess of the corresponding period a year ago. Demand for work clothes shows further improvement, both in the large cities and rural areas. T he trend o f prices was sharply higher, several important clothiers re porting an advance o f from 20 to 25 per cent from the levels prevailing three months ago. O ctober sales of the reporting interests were about six times larger than in September, and twice as great as the October, 1932, total. T h e heavy increase in the month-to-month comparison is seasonal in character. D rugs and C hem icals — For the fourth consec utive month, the volum e of business in this classifi cation during O ctober showed an increase over the corresponding month a year earlier. There was a slight decrease as compared with the preceding month, but this was seasonal and somewhat less than average during the past decade. Demand for seasonal merchandise was generally active. Re quirements o f manufacturers for heavy drugs and chemicals was less in evidence than earlier in the season. Prices showed little change as contrasted with the preceding thirty days. O ctober sales of the reporting firms were 20 per cent larger than for the same month in 1932, and 3 per cent smaller than in September this year. D ry Goods — In counter distinction to Septem ber, sales of the reporting firms showed increases over both a month and a year earlier. The increase in the month-to-month comparison was contrary to the usual seasonal order. The volum e of business during the first half of Novem ber showed an upward trend, with indications that the total for that month will exceed that of the same period in 1932. A con siderable part of the increase over last year is ac counted for by higher prices through practically the entire line, but more particularly in textiles. October sales of the reporting interests were 4 per cent larger than for the same month in 1932, and 6 per cent in excess of the September total this year. Stocks on N ovem ber 1 were 56 per cent larger than a year earlier, but 6 per cent less than on O ctober 1. Electrical Supplies— Sales of the reporting firms in O ctober were 10 per cent larger than in Septem ber and almost one-third greater than in October, 1932. Stocks on N ovem ber 1 were 6 per cent larger than a month earlier, and practically the same as a year ago. T he increase in the month-to-month sales comparison was seasonal, but its extent was somewhat greater than the average during the past five years. Demand for radio material, household appliances and miscellaneous com m odities was in considerable volume, but the outlet through the building and automotive industry failed to expand. F lo u r — Production at the twelve leading mills of the district in O ctober totaled 269,264 barrels, the largest since last July, and com paring with 259,458 barrels in September and 237,466 barrels in October, 1932. Conditions generally in the trade showed little change as compared with the preceding thirty days. Purchasing by the large baking interests was on a somewhat freer scale than heretofore, but jo b bing and general distributive interests were buying conservatively. F ollow ing the movement of cash wheat, prices advanced during the last half of O cto ber and early this month, but buyers were not dis posed to follow the upturn. Export demand con tinued disappointing, with bids from abroad mainly too low for acceptance by mills in this district. Mill operations were at from 50 to 55 per cent of capacity. Furniture— October sales of the reporting firms were 44 per cent greater than for the same month in 1932, and 3 per cent in excess of the September total this year. Inventories showed little change during October, stocks on hand as of Novem ber 1 being 3 per cent and 2 per cent larger, respectively, than a month and a year earlier. Ordering of holi day goods and radio cabinets made a favorable showing as contrasted with the same period a year and tw o years ago. The low ebb of residential con struction is reflected in continued quietness in de mand for household furniture and furnishings. G roceries — Sales of the reporting interests in October declined slightly from September, but the total was 12 per cent greater than for October, 1932. Stocks increased 3 per cent between October 1 and N ovem ber 1, and on the latter date were 12 per cent larger than a year ago. T he trend of prices continues upward, with specific advances recorded on a num ber of commodities. Advance ordering of holiday goods was in less than the usual seasonal volume, though considerably larger than a year ago. H ard w are — F ollow ing the usual seasonal trend, sales of the reporting firms in O ctober declined 9 per cent below the September total, but showed an increase of 8 per cent as compared with October, 1932. Inventories decreased 3 per cent between O ctober 1 and N ovem ber 1, and on the latest date were 11.5 per cent greater than a year ago. Purchas ing in the rural areas, particularly in the south, shows considerable improvement as contrasted with earlier this season and a year ago. The trend of prices continues upward in sympathy with the recent advances in raw materials. Iron and S teel P roducts — The rate of opera tions at ferrous metal w orking plants in this district receded further during the past thirty days, with contraction most pronounced at the steel mills. Requirements o f the principal consumers of steel failed to expand and there was a general slowing down in specifications on materials previously ac quired, while new ordering declined to the lowest level since last spring. A s has been the case for the past several months, miscellaneous demands fur nished the principal outlet for products of both mills and foundries. Throughout October, however, the momentum supplied to the industry by the lesser consum ing groups declined gradually, and since Novem ber 1 there has been a further slowing down, except in the case of seasonal commodities. Stove and heating apparatus manufacturies have been active later into the year than is ordinarily the case, due to belated orders for their products. Both pro duction and shipments o f stoves in O ctober were in measurably larger volum e than a year earlier. Job bing foundries also report October volum e in excess of that for the same month in 1932, though less than the tw o preceding months this year. Farm im plement interests reported a dearth o f new business, and with few exceptions were not disposed to make up stock in anticipation of future demands. Jobbing and warehouse interests reported a decrease in in com ing business during the last half of O ctober and the first tw o weeks o f November. Purchasing is mainly in small lots for immediate requirements. Prices of finished materials showed little change worthy o f note as contrasted with the preceding thirty days, save as affected by the new quantity differentials. P ig iron remained unchanged in price, but there was a sharp decline in scrap iron and steel, with purchasing practically at a standstill. Production of pig iron for the country as a whole sustained another sharp recession in O ctober, and, according to the magazine “ Steel” , was at the low est daily rate since last June. T he output of 1,354,696 tons in O ctober compared with 1,507,931 tons in September, and 644,648 tons in October, 1932. Production o f steel ingots in the United States in O ctober totaled 2,112,000 tons, against 2,311,000 tons, in September and 1,087,000 tons, in October, 1932. A U T O M O B IL E S Combined passenger car, truck and taxicab pro duction in the United States in October was 138,475, against 196,082 in September and 48,934 in October, 1932. Distribution of automobiles in the Eighth D is trict, according to dealers reporting to this bank, declined in O ctober as compared with September, but the volum e was substantially larger than in October a year and tw o years earlier. T h e decline from September to O ctober is seasonal in character, and, with the exception of 1925, has taken place every year during the past decade. T he extent of the decrease was somewhat greater this year than average, due partly to the fact that heavier than the usual purchasing took place in September and August. Inquiries and prospects reported by numerous distributors in the small towns indicate more satisfactory business during the next tw o or three months than in any similar period since 1930. Demand for trucks o f all descriptions continued quite active, O ctober sales exceeding those of Sep tember by approximately 70 per cent, though the total was slightly below that of O ctober last year. Some falling off in demand for repair parts and ac cessories was noted, and sales of tires were some what smaller than during the tw o preceding months. Sales of new passenger cars by the reporting dealers in O ctober were 65 per cent larger than dur ing the same month in 1932, and about one-fourth smaller than the September total this year. Stocks of new passenger cars in dealers’ hands on N ovem ber 1 were 7 per cent larger than a month earlier and 14 per cent greater than a year ago. Trends in the used car market follow ed fairly closely those noted in new vehicles. O ctober sales were 18 per cent below the September total and 42 per cent greater than in October, 1932. Inventories of sala ble second hand cars on Novem ber 1 were 8 and 18 per cent larger, respectively, than a month and a year earlier. A ccording to dealers reporting on that item, the ratio of deferred payment sales to total sales in October was 46 per cent, against 42 per cent in September, and 51 per cent in October, 1932. R E T A IL T R A D E The condition of retail trade is reflected in the follow ing comparative statements show ing activi ties in the leading cities of the d istrict: D epartm ent Stores Evansville Little Roc Louisville Memphis . Quincy .... St. Louis... Springfield 8th Distri< Net sales comparison Stocks on hand Oct. 1933 10 months ended Oct. 31, 1933 comp, to Oct. 31, 1933 to comp, to Oct. 1932 — 4 .8% — 7.7% 7.8% + 13.0 — 12.5 . . + 8.5 — 1.2 — 9.9 ...— 2.0 + 6.1 — 9.1 ,..+ 6.5 — 5.7 — 10.5 2.5 + 11.9 — 7.2 ,..+ 1.8 — 8.3 — 13.2 9.7 + 8.7 — 8.2 :..+ 2.5 Stock turnover Jan. 1, to Oct. 31, 1933 1932 .89 1.04 1.66 1.76 2.44 2.03 2.41 2.38 1.94 1.82 2.82 2.83 1.15 1.04 2.55 2.49 R e ta il Stores Stocks on hand Net sales comparison Oct. 31, 1933 10 months ended Oct. 1933 comp, to Oct. 31, 1933 to comp, to Oct. 31, 1932 same period 1932 Oct. 1932 Men’s Fur,..+ 8.4% Boots and Shoes ... ...— 13.7 Stock turnover Jan. 1, to Oct. 31, 1933 1932 — 6.4% + 14.7% 2.52 2.32 — 13.8 — 17.9 2.48 2.17 C O N SU M PT IO N OF E L E C T R IC IT Y Public utilities companies in the five largest cities of the district report consumption of electric current by selected industrial customers in October as being about 5 per cent smaller than in September and 10.6 per cent more than in October, 1932. D e tailed figures fo llo w : Oct., Sept., Oct. 1933 No. of 1933 1933 comp, to Custom * K .W .H . * K .W .H . Sept. 1933 ers 1,505 1,656 — 9 .1% Evansville .. 40 — 21.1 1,547 1,961 Little Ro<:k.. 35 7,353 7,337 + .2 .... 85 Louisville 1,427 1,262 + 13.1 ,,,195** 17,721 18,950** — 6.5 St. 29,553 ..... Totals ___ 386 *In thousands (000 omitted). ** Revised figures. 31,166** — 5.2 Oct., Oct. 1933 comp, to 1932 * K .W .H . Oct. 1932 1,793** — 16.1% 1,272** + 2 1 .6 5,825** + 2 6 .2 + 3.9 1,374 16,453** + 7.7 26,717** + 1 0 .6 B U IL D IN G The dollar value of permits issued for new con struction in the five largest cities of the district in O ctober was 71 per cent larger than in September, and 23.6 per cent less than in October, 1932. A c cording to statistics com piled by the F. W . D odge Corporation, construction contracts let in the Eighth District in O ctober amounted to $10,507,619 which compares with $14,432,097 in September, and $7,303,430, in October, 1932. Production of portland cement for the country as a whole in October totaled 5,037,000 barrels against 5,638,000 barrels in Sep tember and 7,939,000 barrels in October, 1932. Build ing figures for O ctober fo llo w : Evansville .. Little Rock Louisville .. Memphis ... St. Louis.... New Construction Permits *Cost 1933 1932 19 33 1932 150 129 $ 25 $ 33 16 8 2 10 29 42 177 742 108 82 45 63 195 179 215 563 Oct. totals.. Sept. “ .. Aug. “ .. *In thousands 482 456 $ 812 488 528 475 475 437 3,877 (000 omitted) $1,063 545 413 Repairs, etc. Permits *Cost 1933 1932 1933 1932 50 49 $ 12 $ 7 80 78 11 17 25 34 71 34 131 123 83 51 180 206 66 138 466 666 522 490 472 425 $ 243 460 261 $247 200 208 A G R IC U L T U R E Under very favorable weather throughout O cto ber and the first half o f November, harvesting of late crops in the Eighth District was accomplished with a minimum loss of quality and quantity, and routine agricultural operations of all descriptions made good progress. During October, improvement was recorded on several of the late crops, as a result of which Novem ber 1 estimates o f the U. S. Depart ment o f Agriculture indicate larger yields than a month earlier. D ue to the deferred dates of killing frosts, O ctober weather was unusually auspicoius for rice, peanuts, late beans, potatoes, buckwheat, broom corn and som e other fall vegetables and fruits. Estimates for corn, tobacco and most other crops were little changed, pending the final checkup of harvested acreage. A s the estimates stand at preent, they indicate smaller yields and acreage har vested, as contrasted with last year. Lack of suffi cient rainfall earlier in the autumn in many sections was unfavorable for fall planted grains, but in the immediate past, precipitation has been abundant and fairly w idely spread, so that the earlier handicap of drouth has been overcom e and grow ing crops are in the main entering the cold weather in a strong position. A favorable development during the past sev eral weeks has been the advance in prices of wheat, cotton, corn and some other important farm prod ucts. W hile the upturn has not brought price levels to heights satisfactory to all producers, it has served to im prove sentiment generally in the rural areas, and farmers are form ulating programs for next sea son with more enthusiasm than was thought would be the case a month or six weeks back. There is still a disposition to hold products for more favora ble markets, but the movement from farms has been in seasonable volume. An exception to the price betterment has been livestock, particularly hogs, which remain at or around the low levels of recent months. Response to the Agricultural Adjustment Administration’s campaign to reduce wheat acreage in states of this district is reported generally satis factory. Corn — The estimated production of corn in the Eighth District, based on the Novem ber 1 con dition, is 287,772,000 bushels slightly below the October 1 forecast, and comparing with 380,505,000 bushels harvested in 1932, and a 10-year average (1923-1932) of 351,832,000 bushels. Despite the fact that the crop matured rapidly, under favorable fall weather conditions, the output will be the lightest in many years, and in certain important grow ing sections, the smallest on record. Reduced produc tion is due to a number of causes, among them un favorable planting conditions, drouth during the grow ing season, and the heaviest infestation of chinch bugs in recent years. A considerable part of the crop has been gathered and housed, and husking returns reflect irregularity in yield and quality. The carryover from the 1932 crop is large, and will help to tide farmers through in areas of small production this year. W inter W heat — Eight District production of all wheat in 1933 is estimated by the U. S. Depart ment of Agriculture at 36,048,000 bushels, which compares with the short crop o f 34,128,000 bushels in 1932, and a 10-year average of 50,538,000 bushels. Soil conditions have been mainly good for seeding winter wheat and the condition of the grow ing crop is generally favorable. Germination has been uni formly good in the principal producing sections, and the plant has made rapid growth and is in strong position for entering the cold weather. The m ove ment of wheat to market was in considerably small er volume than at the corresponding period a year ago. F ru its and V egetab les — Latest reports tend to confirm generally small yields of fruits and vege tables in this district. In addition to curtailed pro duction, the quality of many species is considerably below the average. W eather conditions were unfav orable, but to a large txtent difficulties this year have been due to the econom ic condition o f many fruit growers. Returns from fruit during the three preceding years were low, and producers in many areas found it impossible to finance adequate spray schedules. Resort to less effective spray materials to effect econom ics allowed more than the usual opportunity for insect pests to function. This has resulted in a heavy increase in cullage and reduc tion in commercial crops. These conditions were true particularly of apples, total production of which in states of the Eighth District is estimated at 12.696.000 bushels, o f which only 1,654,000 barrels represent commercial crop, against the practical failure in 1932 o f 7,174,000 bushels, with 1,189,000 barrels commercial crop, and a 5-year average (19261930) o f 17,985,000 bushels, with 1,993,000 barrels commercial crop. In these states the pear crop is estimated at 883,000 bushels, against 439,000 bushels in 1932 and a 5-year average of 1,645,000 bushels; grapes, 33,136 tons, against 33,979 tons last year and a 5-year average of 30,649 to n s; sweet potatoes, 17.840.000 bushels, against 21,435,000 bushels in 1932 and a 5-year average of 14,951,000 bushels; peanuts, 37,345,000 pounds, against 43,290,000 pounds in 1932, and a 5-year average of 27,703,000 pounds. Production of white potatoes in the district proper is estimated at 8,558,000 bushels, against 13.164.000 bushels in 1932, and a 10-year average (1923-1932) of 14,453,000 bushels. Live Stock — The condition of livestock gener ally through the district underwent no notable change during the past thirty days as contrasted with the similar period immediately preceding. Mild weather through O ctober and early November, to gether with improvement in pastures caused by more abundant precipitation, permitted of carrying herds well into the season without extraordinary use of prepared foods. H ay crops are turning out somewhat better than expected earlier in the season. Receipts and shipments at St. Louis as reported by the National Stock Yards, were as follow s: Receipts Shipments Oct., Sep t, O c t, Oct., Sept., Oct., 1933 1933 1932 1933 1933 1932 Cattle and Calves......140,475 111,650 105,563 69,880 57,820 62,258 Hogs ............................. 182,880 543,720 207,362 134,481 266,344 175,532 Horses and mules...... 9,281 6,372 4,246 9,327 6,264 3,126 Sheep ............................ 49,438 47,461 55,17310,259 8,780 21,119 Cotton — W hile for the country as a whole, cot ton prospects improved during October, the esti mate, for the Eighth District was slightly smaller on November 1 than a month earlier. Based on the November 1 condition, the U. S. Department of Agriculture estimates the crop in this district at 2.457.000 bales, a decrease of 63,000 bales under the October 1 forecast, and comparing with 2,942,000 bales harvested in 1932, and a 10-year average (19231932) o f 2,705,000 bales. Weather during October and early this month was ideal for field operations, and with labor plentiful, the harvest progressed without important interruption from September 1 to Novem ber 9. K illing frost occurred as of the latter date, which was about average. Practically all the cotton had matured by that time, and the remnant of the unharvested crop is being secured. Ginning returns shows generally high quality. D e spite the increased estimate for production and heavy ginnings, prices for cotton advanced. Inquir ies from foreign buyers increased along with higher quotations on foreign currencies in terms of the dollar. In the St. Louis Market the middling grade ranged from 8.90c to 9.75c per pound between O cto ber 17 and N ovem ber 15, closing at 9.75c on the latter date, against 9.00c on October 17, and 5.85c on November 15, 1932. Receipts at Arkansas com presses from August 1 to November 10 totaled 711,799 bales, against 787,008 bales during the cor responding period last year. Stocks on hand as of November 10 were 614,307 bales, which compares with 345,267 bales on October 13, and 758,031 bales on November 11, 1932. Tobacco — Eighth District tobacco prospects declined between O ctober 1 and November 1, the Government’s estimate on the latter being 308,723,000 pounds, a decrease of 16,188,000 pounds under the October 1 forecast, and comparing with 261,257,000 pounds harvested in 1932, and a 10-year average of 308,565,000 pounds. Curing of the crop in both the burley and dark tobacco districts has proceeded satisfactorily, and early reports indicate a desirable quality of all types to be marketed this season. Due to dry, cold weather prevailing in early November, stripping has been delayed. W hile it is planned to open the auction markets around Decem ber 1, actual opening dates will be governed by weather condi tions. Purchasing of old crop burley tobacco con tinues in a limited way. Unsold stocks as of N ovem ber 15 were estimated to be only about one-third as large as a year earlier. Demand for all classes of dark fired tobacco continues good, with independent stocks the smallest in a number of years. C O M M O D ITY P R IC E S Range of prices in the St. Louis market between November 15, 1933 and October 16, 1933 with clos ing quotations on the latter date and November 15, 1932, fo llo w : High Wheat ' Dec........................per bu..$ May ..................... “ July ..................... 4 4 No. 2 red winter “ No. 2 hard “ .... “ C *°Dec......................... ....“ *May ...................... ....“ *July ..................... ....“ No. 2 mixed ........ “ No. 2 white ....... ... “ Low .93*6$ .96 % .8 8 # .95 .9 8 # .50 .565^ .5 8 # .4 5 # .5 0 # No. 2 white ....... “ .3 8 # Flour Soft patent......... per bbl. 6.95 Spring patent...... “ 7.10 Middling cotton....per lb. .0975 Hogs on hoof........per cwt. 4.70 * Nominal quotations. Close Nov. 15,1933 Nov. 15, 1932 -67H $ .895^ .73 .93 .78 .8 7 # .77 $ .94 @ .9454 $ .50 .7 5 # .9 8 # @ .9 8 # .49 .37 H .44 .4 6 # .38 .40 .5 3 ^ @ .5 5 # @ .3754 6.45 6.45 3.60 .26 .3 1 # .SS% .43 .5 0 # .30 5.75 5.85 .0890 3.00 -4 7 # .54 @ 6.95 @ 6.95 .0975 @ 4.25 $ .4 5 # .5 0 # .51 @ .5054 @ .4 9 # .27 . .25 @ .2 8 # .1754® *18 2.65 @ 2.95 4.25 @ 4.50 .0585 2.25 @ 3.35 F IN A N C IA L Moderate improvement in demand for bank credit took place in the Eighth District during the past thirty days. The m ajor part of the improve ment was in heavier requirements of mercantile and industrial interests, particularly the former. D e mand for funds for harvesting and m oving fall crops showed the usual seasonal contraction, and country banks noticeably reduced their commitments with city correspondents and at the Federal reserve bank. Harvesting and housing of the tobacco crop has been completed, and markets for that product will open about Decem ber 1, subsequent to which time the release o f a considerable volum e of funds for meeting bank and other obligations is anticipated. The marketing o f cotton has been in good volume, and has been reflected in a reduction of loans at banks in the typical areas of production. In the winter wheat sections a contraction was noted in commitments of grain elevator and flour milling in terests, but the volum e of loans in this category continues substantially larger than at the corres ponding period a year and tw o years earlier. D e mand for funds to condition livestock for market continues relatively light. E xcept for a further substantial increase in their reserve balances, changes in the condition of reporting member banks in the principal cities be tween O ctober 18 and Novem ber 15 were of small proportions. T otal loans and discounts increased 1.3 per cent and there was an increase of 3.4 per cent in investments, represented mainly by larger holdings of Government securities, the volume of which at the end of the four-week period was 13.3 per cent greater than on Novem ber 16 a year ago. Net demand deposits increased 3.2 per cent, while a slight contraction was recorded in time deposits. Reserve balances at 54 million dollars as of N ovem ber 15 were 14 per cent and 46.5 per cent greater, respectively, than a month and a year earlier. The amount o f savings deposits in selected banks on N ovem ber 1 increased slightly as com pared with O ctober 4, but was 14 per cent smaller than on N ovem ber 4, 1932. W hile actual quotations showed little change from the preceding thirty days, the trend of interest and discount rates was slightly firmer. A t St. Louis banks, as o f the week ended N ovem ber 15, current rates were as follow s: Customers’ prime com m er cial paper, Zy2 to 5y2 per cent; collateral loans, 4 to 6 per ce n t; loans secured by warehouse receipts, 1% to 5y2 per cent; interbank loans, 5 to 5y2 per cent and cattle loans, 5 to 6 per cent. Condition of B an ks — Loans and discounts of the reporting member banks on Novem ber 15, 1933 showed an increase of 1.3 per cent as contrasted with October 18,. 1933. Deposits increased 2.6 per cent between O ctober 18, 1933 and Novem ber 15, 1933 and on the latter date were 3.2 per cent greater than on November 16, 1932. Composite statement fo llo w s: *Nov. IS, 1933 Number of banks reporting............ 19 Loans and discounts (incl. rediscounts) Secured by U . S. Govt, obligations and other stocks and bonds....$ 87,055 All other loans and discounts.... 152,000 ♦Oct. 18, 1933 19 ♦Nov. 16, 1932 19 $ 88,041 148,011 $101,185 160,024 Total loans and discounts.................$239,055 Investments U . S. Government securities...... 142,356 Other securities................................ 101,687 $236,052 $261,209 134,604 101,424 109,929 105,595 Total investments................................ $244,043 Reserve balance with F. R. Bank.. 54,102 Cash in vault......................................... 8,993 Deposits Net demand deposits..................... 289,714 Time deposits................................... 158,694 Government deposits..................... 25,700 $236,028 47,433 8,778 $215,524 36,933 5,673 280,815 159,293 22,081 268,733 183,784 6,706 Total deposits...................................... $474,108 Bills payable and rediscounts with Federal Reserve Bank................... 180 *In thousands (000 omitted). This report covers 19 licensed banks in banks in 5 leading cities, as heretofore. $462,189 $459,223 535 940 leading cities instead of 24 F ederal R eserve O perations — D uring October the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis discounted for 64 member banks against 65 in September 208 in October, 1932. T he discount rate remained un changed at 3 per cent. Changes in the principal assets and liabilities of this institution appear in the follow ing table: *Nov. 17, 1933 Bills bought ............................................... U . S. Securities.......................................... .... Federal Inter. Cr. Bk. Debentures.... Participation in Inv. Foreign Banks.. ♦Oct. 17, 1933 $ 1,803 ♦Nov. 17, 1932 $ 8,79$ 93,200 .....89^402 .....66"l56 172 Total Reserves................................. ....$167,126 .... 143,813 Ratio of reserve to deposits and F. R. Note Liabilities..... *In thousands (000 omitted). 1,008 $ 91,377 $ 75,962 $157,277 91,167 139,988 * $100,408 62,902 101,685 68.0% ....$ Total Bills and Securities.....................$ 94,978 61.0% Debits to In d ivid u al A ccounts — The follow ing table gives the total debits charged by banks to checking accounts, savings accounts, certificates of deposit accounts and trust accounts of individuals, firms, corporations and U. S. Government in leading cities of the district. Charges to accounts of banks are not included. ♦Oct., 1933 Natl. 11..$ 20,230 .... 3,375 .... 14,124 Evansville, Fort Smith .... 8,326 .... 4,063 Greenville, .... 2,115 ... 18,596 115,144 ... 130,252 Owensboro, Ky. ... 2,634 ... 6,695 5,036 ... 418,292 ... 1,300 Sedalia, Mo.. ... 9,165 ♦♦Texarkana, Ark.-Tex.. ... 5,225 ,...$764,572 ♦Sept., 1933 ♦Oct., 1932 $ 23,194 3,057 13,849 7,511 2,927 1,401 19,468 107,079 88,040 2,494 5,399 4,890 379,600 1,295 9,386 $ 18,570 3,704 13,119 7,713 2,925 1,839 18,643 103,470 102,861 2,473 5,428 5,506 394,700 1,493 9,511 5,098 5,362 $674,688 $697,317 Oct. 1933 comp, to Sept. 1933 Oct. 1932 — 12.8% + 10.4 + 2.0 + 10.9 + 3 8 .8 + 5 1 .0 — 4.5 + 7.5 + 4 7 .9 + 5.6 + 2 4 .0 + 3.0 + 10.2 + 0.4 — 2.4 + 8.9 — 8.9 + 7.7 + 7.9 + 3 8 .9 + 15.0 — 0.3 + 11.3 + 2 6 .6 + 6.5 + 2 3 .3 + 8.5 + 6.0 — 12.9 — 3.6 + — 2.6 2.5 + 13.3 ♦In thousands (000 omitted). ♦♦Includes one bank in Texarkana, Texas not in Eighth District. (Compiled November 23, 1933) + 9.6 B U S IN E S S CON DITIO NS IN T H E U N ITE D S T A T E S Volume of industrial output continued to decline in October. Factory employment and payrolls, after increasing continuously for six months up to the middle of September, showed little change from then to the middle of October. There was an increase in the volume of construction undertaken, reflecting the expan sion of public works. of October. At canning establishments there was a decline of a seasonal character and the Board’s index, which includes this industry, showed a slight decrease. Value of construction contracts awarded during October and the first half of November, as reported by the F. W . Dodge Corporation, showed a considerable advance over the preceding six-weeks period, reflecting a growing volume of public works. PRODUCTION AND EM PLO YM ENT — Volume of out put in basic industries decreased in October as compared with September, contrary to seasonal tendency, and the Board’s sea sonally adjusted index declined from 84 per cent of the 1923-1925 DISTRIBU TIO N—-Shipments of commodities by rail showed a somewhat larger decline between the middle of October and the middle of November than is usual at this season. Department store sales increased in October as compared with September by slightly less than the usual seasonal amount. PERCENT 1K <> PRICES — Wholesale prices, as measured by the weekly index of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, declined from 71.3 per cent of the 1926 average in the first week of October to 70.4 per cent in the third week, and then advanced to 71.7 per cent in the third week of November, a level 20 per cent above the low point of last March. Following declines early in October, prices of cotton, grains, lard, rubber, tin, and silver increased considerably, while cattle prices continued to decline and prices of hogs showed little change. 130 120 110 100 90 FOREIGN EXCH ANG E — The value of the dollar in the foreign exchange market fluctuated around 67 per cent of its gold parity during the latter part of October; declined during the first part of November, to 59 per cent on November 16, and on Novem ber 22 was 61 per cent. 80 70 60 50 1926 1929 ______________________ 1930 13 91 1932 1933 Index number of industrial production, adjusted for seasonal variation. (1923-1925 average=100). Latest figure, October, preliminary 77. average to 77 per cent. This compared with an index of 67 in October of last year and of 60 at the low point in March of this year. At steel mills activity declined sharply between the middle of October and the first week in November, but in the following three weeks showed little change. In the automobile industry, output has been curtailed in recent weeks in preparation for new models. For the first ten months of the year the number of cars produced was 50 per cent larger than in the corresponding months of 1932. Output at shoe factories showed a seasonal decline in PERCENT 120 110 100 Indexes based on three month moving averages of F. W . Dodge data for 37 Eastern States, adjusted for seasonal variation. (1923-1925 average= 1 0 0 ) . Latest figures, October, total 35, residential 13. 90 80 70 60 50 k O 30 1926 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 Indexes of factory employment and payrolls, without adjustment for seasonal variation. (1923-1925 average 100). Latest figures for October, employment 75.8, payrolls 57.4. October as compared with September, and there was some de crease in activity at cotton and wool textile mills, contrary to seasonal tendency. At meat packing establishments activity de clined sharply from the unusually high rate prevailing in Sep tember, due to the fact that in that month a large number of pigs purchased by the Federal Government were handled. Total num ber o f employees at factories, excluding canning establishments, showed little change from the middle of September to the middle BANK CREDIT — Between October 18 and November 15 there was little change in the reserves of member banks, which continued to be more than $800,000,000 in excess of legal require ments. Purchases of United States Government securities by the reserve banks declined gradually from $25,000,000 during the week ending October 25 to $2,000,000 during the week ending Novem ber 15. For the four-week period as a whole the banks* holdings of United States Government securities showed an increase of $57,000,000, while holdings of acceptances and discounts for mem ber banks showed little change. Total loans and investments of member banks increased by $90,000,000 during the period, reflect ing a growth of $150,000,000 in holdings of United States Govern ment securities; of $25,000,000 in holdings of other securities, and of $30,000,000 in all other loans, while loans on securities declined. Net demand deposits declined by $70,000,000 during the period, while Government deposits increased by $180,000,000. Rates on acceptances and yields on short term United States treasury bills and certificates rose slightly from mid-October to November 20, and yields on Government and high grade corporate bonds advanced somewhat. Discount rates of the Federal Reserve banks of Boston, San Francisco, and Philadelphia were reduced from 3 per cent to 2*4 per cent on November 2, 3, and 16, respec tively.
@FedFRASER