The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
Monthly Review Volume X X X MARCH 1, 1948 Number 3 Wood Processing Industries in the Eighth District The forests of the Eighth District constitute one of the most important natural resources in the region. A substantial part of the district’s income is derived directly or indirectly from our timber resources. The production and marketing of timber is the primary source of income to commercial forest operators and a welcome supplemental income to many farmers and other owners of small wood lots. In addition to the direct return from growing and selling trees is that income which results from the processing of timber into lumber and finished wood products, and into many other products which require wood as a raw material. In mid-March of 1946 (the latest date for which such data are avail able) there were more than 7,000 establishments in district states in the business of producing lum ber, and manufacturing finished wood products. In addition, there were almost 600 establishments in the pulp and paper industry which depends mostly on forest products as a raw materials source, and a number of other plants manufacturing items (such as certain chemical products) made from forest resources. In the basic and finished lumber industries approximately 190,000 workers were em ployed and taxable payrolls during the first three months of that year totaled $74 million (an unad justed annual rate of $295 million).1 Eight per cent of manufacturing employment and 6 per cent of manufacturing payrolls were reported by these forest products industries. In the paper and allied products lines, 60,000 workers and $30 million in 1 Based on reports O A S I program. tabulated c for establishments reporting under the This article is the first of two on the indus tries using forest products as a raw material and on the possibilities of industrial expan sion in these lines. In the December, 1947 Review an appraisal of the district’s forest resources and of possibilities for increasing income to the landowner from timber under good management was given. The present article is designed to point out salient fea tures of the existing wood processing indus try in the district and the following article to appraise potential growth of industry through increased output from the district forests and through shifts in the pattern of the district industry. quarterly taxable payrolls were reported, 2.5 per cent each of manufacturing employment and pay rolls, respectively. The proportion of jobs and incomes from these industries varies considerably from state to state. In Arkansas, for example, the basic and finished lumber industries plus pulp and paper lines ac counted for 55 per cent of the manufacturing em ployment and 49 per cent of the payrolls. In Mississippi, 44 per cent of all manufacturing em ployment and almost half of the payrolls were pro vided by these plants. At the other extreme was Indiana where they represented only 7 per cent of employment and 6 per cent of manufacturing pay rolls. Average employment and payrolls for the full year 1946 and probably for 1947 undoubtedly were larger than is indicated by figures based on opera tions in the first quarter of 1946. Activity in the first quarter, particularly in basic lumber produc tion, is near the seasonal low point for the year. In addition, logging operations and lumber produc tion in the early part of 1946 were curtailed con siderably by adverse weather conditions in many sections of the district. Unfortunately, there appears to be a sizable gap between the amount of income presently being real ized from the production of timber, as well as its processing into finished products, and the potential income that could accrue to the district from these sources. The original article in this series indicated that timber production, and hence income, in most parts of the district might be increased substantially if known timber management practices were applied to the wood lots and forest tracts of the area. Fur ther study suggests that district income can be increased through the development of the woodproducts industries. There are three general directions in which a further development of the wood processing indus tries might take place. First, the industry might be expanded along the lines of its present pattern, which would call for larger output from the dis trict’s forests— as pointed out in the earlier article, a definite possibility if management practices are improved. Second, expansion could take place in the form of new industries— not only those that are new to the district but also those new in technology. Included here would be processes based on utiliza tion of waste wood materials and their conversion into synthetic wood products and laminated and molded materials, and operations which transform wood into items far different from the original ma terial—for example, molasses from oak chips. This also would call for increased forest yields. Third, expansion might occur through shifting emphasis from some present uses and providing for more processing— for example, less raw lumber shipped and more used as material for finished wood prod ucts. Depending on the extent of markets, this might or might not call for increased output from the forests. Actually, 'expansion probably should proceed along all three lines, providing that the district’s forests can be brought to yield increasing output in sufficient volume to meet increased demand. Page 30 W OOD PROCESSING The process of converting timber into finished wood products or products based on wood begins at the time the tree is cut, and the various process ing plants are classified in several general industry groups. Tw o of these, where the main change from the tree to the product is physical, are the basic timber and the finished lumber products industries. Logging operations, sawmills, planing mills, coop erage stock mills, veneer mills, and plywood mills constitute the basic industries. A large part of the final product of the basic industries is sold as raw lumber and used as such in construction, crating, etc. The balance becomes the raw material used in the furniture and other finished lumber products industries. Included in this group are the host of factories manufacturing wood products ranging from matches to freight cars. The other major industry group processing wood is the paper and allied products industry. Here the basic line is pulp mills, and the finished prod ucts, paper and items made from paper. In addition, however, various lines in other industries use wood as a raw material— notably some chemical processes. TH E BASIC INDUSTRIES A downward trend has characterized the basic lumber industry in the Eighth District for the past quarter century despite wartime expansion. In the twenty years from 1919 to 1939 the number of basic lumber plants in the seven district states decreased from 7,500 to less than 2,OOO.2 The number of workers employed fell from 115,000 to 61,000 and total annual wage payments declined from $101 million to $40 million. During the war period, however, there was a rapid increase in basic industries as lumber produc tion was expanded to meet wartime requirements. This was especially true of sawmills and planing mills. The basic industries in the district states are heavily concentrated, geographically, since they must of necessity be located near the source of their raw materials. In the case of logging camps, this location factor is obvious. Thus it is to be expected that about nine-tenths of the district states’ logging camps were in Arkansas and Mississippi where the largest timber tracts are located. To a somewhat lesser extent, sawmill and plan ing mill operations also are concentrated in these two states. However, the development of small portable-type sawmills, together with the increase 2 T h e discussion is in terms o f the seven district states because exact data are not available for the district proper. O f the 2,000 plants noted, somewhat m ore than half were in the district proper. M ost o f the lo gg in g camps, and m ore than half o f the sawmills, were in the district proper. A bou t the same situation prevails today. in hard-surfaced roads and the use of trucks for transportation, has tended to diffuse operations at this level in the industry. Today the vast majority of lumber manufacturing plants in this district are small. This also was characteristic of prewar plants since long-term influences, related directly to the condition of the timber resources, exerted pressure in this direction for a number of years. In addition, however, the tremendous wartime and postwar demand for lum ber greatly stimulated the establishment of new, small-scale plants, particularly sawmills. Sawmill Operations Affected by Timber Manage ment Practices— For many years lack of concern for the future of our timberland, which found ex pression in the policy of “ cutting and getting out” , resulted in a significant decline in the number of large timber tracts capable of supporting largescale lumber operations. Today much of the stand ing timber is found in small wood lots that are scattered over wide areas. While small portabletype sawmills are highly adaptable to such condi tions, operations of this kind generally tend to increase the cost and hence the market price of lumber. In more modern times a number of large manu facturing plants, whose operations are dependent upon a continuing supply of timber, have built up extensive holdings which have been placed on a sustained-yield basis, thus reversing the trend noted above. In addition, many of the these companies are encouraging farmers in adjacent areas to plant trees as a source of income which aids the farmer and provides an additional supply of raw material for the manufacturer. This movement is particu larly noteworthy in the southern portion of the district. If this practice continues to develop, the size of timber stands (either under one owner or handled pretty much as such) will increase and hence will be capable of supporting larger sawmill operations. Poor timber management practices have led wood lot owners and commercial operators in too many instances to pursue a policy of indiscriminate cutting of trees, with little regard to selecting the most efficient sized tree in terms of lumber pro duction. While the practice of cutting small-diameter trees increased during the war, it has been common for many years. The effect on sawmill operations is significant. Prior to the war, 70 per cent more manhours of labor were required to process 1,000 board feet of lumber from trees eight inches in diameter than were required when trees averaged 24 inches in diameter, according to a U. S. Forest Service survey of small mills in the South. Labor requirements per unit of lumber processed in logging operations averaged twice as large for eight-inch trees as for 24-inch trees. The continuing effect of this factor is indicated by a study by the Bureau of Labor Statistics reporting a decline of three inches in the diameter of the aver age sawlog in the South between 1935 and the survey of 1945-1946. Again it must be noted that timber cutting practices and individual sawmill operations vary widely and averages such as these cannot be applied universally. However, available evidence indicates that these estimates are fairly representative of management practices and of saw mill operations in many sections of the district. Lumber Production in District States—Although the basic lumber industry in the district states is not as large now as it was in the 1920's or in earlier years, output of lumber here is still considerable. In 1945, output was estimated at 4.0 billion board feet. During the peak war years, from 1942 through 1944, output averaged 4.9 billion board feet. Prior to the war, from 1936 through 1939, district states’ production averaged 3.0 billion board feet. Not only has the physical volume of lumber pro duced in this area in recent years averaged less than in the 1920's and in the early years of this century, but until W orld W ar II it also declined relative to total U. S. production. The large wartime demand for lumber brought many marginal mills into opera tion. The number of small mills increased sharply as it became profitable to cut low quality timber not merchantable in periods of normal demand. As a result, production increased faster in this area than nationally and from 1942 through 1944 averaged 14.0 per cent of U. S. output. In 1945, the ratio increased to a little less than 15.0 per cent. Most of the lumber production in the seven-state area and in the Eighth District portion thereof comes from Arkansas and Mississippi. In 1945, 61 per cent of the region’s lumber and 75 per cent of the Eighth District production was accounted for by these two states. Except during the peak war years, these two states have held their output at approximately the present level, relative to produc tion in the other five states, for the past quarter century. Before the recent war, most of the lumber pro duced in the district states was of the softwood variety, with yellow pine accounting for the bulk of the output. In 1929, for example, softwood lum ber represented 57 per cent of the total and in 1939 Page 31 it amounted to 63 per cent of all lumber produced. Under the pressure of wartime demand, however, many hardwood trees were marketed which in normal times would not have been profitable for the timber owner to cut. This was true particularly of such trees found in mixed stands and trees of small size and low quality. As a result, hardwood lumber production more than doubled from 1939 to 1942, although it remained less than that of soft wood lumber. Since 1942, softwood production has declined steadily, from 3.0 billion board feet in 1942 to an estimated 1.6 billion in 1945. During the same period hardwood output increased from 2.3 billion board feet to 2.7 billion in 1945. Most of the softwood lumber is produced in Arkansas and Mississippi. In each of those states, however, hardwood lumber production has in creased considerably relative to softwood output, and was larger in 1945 than in 1942. Softwood pro duction in 1945 was less than in 1942 in both states. A large quantity of lumber produced in the district states is processed in this area. However, shipments to other states are sizable. From 1940 through 1943, estimated shipments of lumber from district state mills, including shipments from inven tories, averaged 4.9 billion board feet per year. Forty-eight per cent was consigned to points within the state of origin, 24 per cent was shipped to other district states, and the remaining 28 per cent was shipped outside the district states. Receipts of lumber from outside the district in 1940-1943 averaged 2.2 billion board feet, or 57 per cent more than was shipped to other parts of the country. Arkansas and Mississippi were the only states that shipped more lumber out of the district than they imported from other sections. FINISHED WOOD PRODUCTS INDUSTRIES The availability of a large supply of lumber in the district states has led to the development of many finished wood products industries. In 1939, there were 1,500 plants engaged in the manufacture of wood products. Employment totaled 73,000 and production was valued at $306 million. As in the case of basic timber products, full statistics for the finished lumber industry in the district proper are not available. But where the pattern of the basic industry was not distorted by using district state data rather than those for the district proper, such is not the case in the finished lumber products lines. In the first place, the Eighth District proportion of the finished lumber industry of the seven-state area is appreciably smaller than that of the basic timber industry—less than onethird as opposed to more than one-half. Thus comPage 32 paring the two groups for the seven-state area gives the impression of balance, whereas within the dis trict proper there is considerable unbalance. Furthermore, while the district has roughly 30 per cent of the finished lumber products industry group in the seven district states, the proportions for the several industry lines vary appreciably, and unfortunately, larger than average shares of the more profitable lines (in terms of value produced per worker) lie outside the district proper. Thus, district Illinois contains only 5 per cent of the finished lumber industry in that state, and many of the highly productive lines are concentrated out side of the district.3 Thus the following discussion should be inter preted with care and with these points in mind : (1) Aggregate figures for the seven-state industry group and for individual lines are not representative of the district proper; and (2) the proportion of a particular line in the district pattern may be differ ent from that for the entire region; but (3) the data on relationships of employment to value of production and value added for individual lines apply roughly to the district plants as well as to those outside the district; and (4) change from 1939 to 1946 for the industry as a whole and for the individual lines is as applicable to the district as the seven state area— in fact, expansion within the district in those years probably has been rela tively greater than that within the entire area. Since 1939, the number of plants in district states has increased considerably. Official comparable data are not available for years since 1939, but industrial directories published by some of the individual states show a growing industry. In Arkansas, for example, 192 finished lumber products plants were listed in 1946, which compares with 69 in the 1939 Census of Manufacturers. A similar source reports 144 establishments in Mississippi as compared with 41 in 1939. In Missouri, 395 plants are listed as compared with 221 prior to the war, and in Tennes see the latest directory lists 337 plants as compared with 156 in 1939. Some of the newer finished wood products plants no doubt represent types of manufacturing activity that were not in existence in the region in 1939. However, it is not likely that the general structure of the finished wood products industry as a whole has been altered materially since 1939. 8 A bou t four-fifths o f the Mississippi and Indiana industries lie in the m ore industrialized sections of those states outside the Eighth District. The district proper contains all of the Arkansas plants, 85 per cent of the Kentucky establishments, and 70 per cent o f the Missouri plants. A bou t one-third o f the Tennessee industry is within the district proper. In 1939, the value of furniture (excluding fix tures) produced in the district states represented about 50 per cent of the value of all finished wood products. The wood preserving industry ranked second in importance in the wood-using industries, although the value of output was less than the value of mattress production, which, for census purposes, is included in the general industry group. Pro duction of caskets, partitions, and shelving and wood boxes ranked in that order of importance in terms of the value of production in 1939. In mid-March, 1946 there were 1,231 plants in the district states engaged in the production of furniture and fixtures.4 Included in the “ fixtures” group are manufacturers of mattresses, Venetian blinds, window and door screens, window shades, and the like. This represents an increase of 50 per cent in the number of furniture and fixture plants from 1939 to 1946. Employment increased from 50,000 to 65,000 during this period, while payrolls in the first three months of 1946 were at an unad justed annual rate of $127 million, or 2.6 times larger than in 1939. Most of the district plants and workers in 1946 were in Illinois and Indiana, these two states ac counting for 62 per cent of the establishments, 60 per cent of the employment, and 75 per cent of the value of production. As noted earlier the great bulk of the industry in these states lies outside the dis trict proper. Most of the plants in the second most important wood processing industry in the district states— the wood preserving industry— were located in Illinois and Mississippi in 1939. Production in these two states accounted for about 60 per cent of the value of output in all district states wood preserving plants. These plants treat timber to protect it from rot, insects and other destructive agents. Casket manufacturing plants were located in all district states, although production was concen trated in Illinois, Indiana and Missouri. Of the total production valued at almost $19 million, about 95 per cent was from plants in these three states. Noted earlier was the fact that the Eighth Dis trict contained a considerably smaller number of finished lumber products establishments than of the basic timber establishments. This unbalance results in the district losing a substantial amount of income that would accrue if the manufacturing process were carried further in this area. 4 Based on reports submitted b y companies under the O ld A ge and Survivors Insurance program. Data contained in published summaries o f these reports are not strictly com parable with 1939 Census of M anu facturers figures but the latter can be re g r o u p e d to arrive at reasonably comparable estimates. Illustrative of this point, the value of production per worker in the basic timber industry in the seven states in 1939 was roughly $2,700, and the value added per worker was about $1,400. Contrasted with these figures were a per worker value of pro duction in finished lumber of $4,200 and per worker value added of $2,000. Under present conditions of very high demand for raw lumber, the spread between output per worker in the basic and finished lumber lines prob ably is appreciably narrower. Nevertheless, as a long-run measure, it would seem desirable to in crease substantially the finished lumber industry in this area. Similarly other wood-using lines might well be expanded. This point will be discussed at greater length in the succeeding article. Lumber Requirements— As indicated earlier, a substantial amount of the lumber required by the finished wood products plants is produced in the state in which the plants are located, or in other of the district states. Part of the requirements, however, involve species not grown in the area. It is difficult to measure lumber requirements of manufacturers of wood products, of other manufac turers using wood as a raw material, or total lumber requirements, including the amount used in con struction, shipping, and for other nonprocessing uses. Estimates of industrial requirements are avail able for certain years. No estimates of construc tion requirements are available for the individual states. A partial picture of lumber requirements can be obtained from the U. S. Forest Service survey of lumber used in manufacture in 1940. Tabulations based on this report are shown in Table I. These figures show “ the quantity of wood used in 1940 by the so-called secondary wood-using industries— industries such as box factories, furniture factories, car shops, pattern shops, etc., which do not as a class obtain their raw material directly from the forest.” 5 The largest demand for softwood lumber in 1940 was for southern yellow pine. About 53 per cent of the softwood used was of that variety, with require ments totaling 425 million board feet. This type of pine was used largely in the manufacture of boxes, baskets, crating, flooring, millwork, and in the construction and repair of railway cars. Produc tion of southern pine lumber in the area was con siderably larger than industrial requirements. H ow ever, it should be borne in mind that the amount of lumber used in construction and for other non5 Lum ber used in m anufacture, 1940, U . S. Forest Service. Page 33 TABLE I E S T IM A T E D L U M B E R R E Q U IR E M E N T S O F W O O D -U S I N G I N D U S T R I E S I N D I S T R I C T S T A T E S , 1940 (M illion s o f board feet) Total S oftw ood H ardw ood T O T A L A L L R E Q U I R E M E N T S * .......... 2,146 802 1,344 F looring ................................................................. 603 44 559 Boxes, baskets and crating................................ 553 310 243 Furniture ............................................................... 277 16 261 Car construction and repair.............................. 201 183 18 M illwork ................................................................. 177 134 43 Handles ................................................................... 53 1 52 M otor vehicles ...................................................... 50 10 40 Caskets and burial boxes.................................. 40 34 6 Agricultural implements .................................. 25 8 17 Refrigerators ........................................................ 15 9 6 Fixtures ................................................................. 15 3 12 Radio and phonograph cabinets..................... 12 ................ 12 12 2 10 Vehicles, nonm otor ........................................... Musical instruments ........................................... 11 1 10 Toys ........................................................................ 10 6 4 Patterns and flasks............................................. 9 8 1 Playground equipment ....................................... 8 7 1 Ladders ................................................................... 6 6 Pencils and penholders....................................... 4 4 Signs, scenery and displays.............................. 3 3 A ll other ................................................................. 62 13 49 * Excludes 124 million board feet of veneer and 62 million board feet of bolts and logs required in 1940. Source: “ Lum ber Used In Manufacture, 1940” , U. S. Forest Service. manufacturing purposes and in the paper and chemi cal lines is not included in these aggregates. Second softwood species in order of demand in 1940 was Ponderosa pine, of which 126 million board feet were required. Consumption of this species was almost exclusively in factories in Illinois and Indi ana where it was used in the manufacture of boxes, millwork, toys, and fixtures. This type of pine is not grown in the district states; consequently all lumber requirements must be met by imports from other states, principally from the west coast states. The supply situation with respect to Douglas fir lumber, the type next most important in terms of demand, is similar to that of Ponderosa pine. About 104 million board feet of this lumber, produced principally on the west coast, were used in the district states in 1940, largely in Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri. Most of it went into car construction and repair, millwork, boxes, baskets and crating, and ladders. These three softwood species accounted for 80 per cent of the total softwood lumber required. Northern white pine, spruce, and cypress accounted for the bulk of the remaining 20 per cent. Produc tion of cypress lumber in the district states was in excess of these requirements in 1940, and some types of spruce lumber were produced in quantities approximating requirements. However, northern white pine requirements have to be met by imports from other states. Production of most types of hardwood lumber in the district states is equal to or is in excess of requirements of manufacturers in these states. About 47 per cent of the hardwood lumber used in 1940 was oak, of which production in the seven states was substantially larger than requirements. Page 34 A total of 642 million board feet was required, of which 80 per cent was used in the manufacture of flooring. The remainder was used largely for furni ture, boxes, baskets and crating, car construction and millwork. Most of the flooring was manufac tured in Arkansas and Tennessee, the two states which accounted for more than three-fourths of the oak lumber produced in the district states. Red and sap gum requirements, totaling 174 mil lion board feet, represented 12 per cent of all hard wood lumber used in the wood products industries in 1940. Average production in 1939-41 was slightly in excess of requirements and originated chiefly in Arkansas, Mississippi and Tennessee. These species of gum are used primarily in the manufacture of furniture and boxes, baskets and crating in Arkan sas, Illinois and Indiana. Requirements of maple lumber were next in size in 1940, amounting to 130 million board feet, or nearly 10 per cent of the total hardwood demand. This species has a wide variety of uses, including flooring, furniture, millwork, boxes, baskets and crating, and toys. Average production in 1939-41 was less than half as large as requirements in 1940, and was centered in Indiana, Tennessee, and Ken tucky, although relatively smaller quantities were produced in the other states. THE PAPER AND ALLIED PRODUCTS INDUSTRY This industry differs from the basic and finished lumber lines in that chemical as well as physical change is involved in processing the raw material into intermediate and final products. In terms of employment, the industry is not as important as the others in the seven-state area and the district proper, but it does represent a major district activity and offers considerable possibilities for expansion. As classified by the Census, the industry consists first of pulp mills which transform raw wood into wood pulp and are the basic processors for the group. Intermediate products are produced from the pulp at paper and paperboard mills. Final products include paperboard containers, fiber cans, paper bags, die-cut paper, coated and glazed paper, envelopes, wallpaper, and miscellaneous converted paper products. The war saw expansion in this industry, but (aside from Illinois experience) it was mostly in terms of expansion of existing plants rather than establishment of new ones. Consequently the 1939 pattern in the district states is fairly applicable to the present time. In 1939, the industry in the seven-state area consisted of 450 establishments, with 32,000 wage earners turning out well over $200 million value of production. By 1946, there were about 580 estab lishments and almost 60,000 wages earners (90 of the additional establishments were in Illinois). About one-fourth of the seven-state area plants are located in the Eighth District proper, most of them (aside from pulp mills) in the St. Louis, Louisville, and Memphis industrial areas. Lumber requirements for the paper and allied products industry are in terms of pulp mill require ments and, generally speaking, pulp mills need extensive holdings of timber to assure operations. Proper forest management is a “ must” for pulp producers because pulp mills are expensive and are long-term ventures. In 1939, there were but 11 pulp mills in the seven district states combined, and because of the Census disclosure rule, there is little published data on employment, payrolls or output. There were 49 paper and paperboard mills in the district states in that year, most of them lying outside the district proper in Illinois and Indiana. In the 38 mills in those two states, employment in 1939 was 5,500 persons, and production was $42 million in goods which included a value added by manufacture of $20 million. Per worker value produced thus was $7,500 and value added $3,600. More than 200 paperboard container plants were in the district states in 1939 with about one-third, in the district proper. The balance of the establish ments in the industry produced items mentioned above: bags, various types of paper stock, envelopes, etc. The great bulk of these plants lay outside the district. OTH ER W OOD-USING INDUSTRIES W ood is also used in a variety of other industries. The table on wood requirements gives some indi cation of lines not included in the basic or finished lumber and paper industries. It does not include, however, the chemicals industry which uses wood to produce turpentine, charcoal and many other products. These wood distillation lines do not occupy a very prominent position within the district proper, although there are a few plants engaged in such operations. Because of the small number of estab lishments, Census data, even on a state basis, are not available for the industry since it would violate the Census disclosure rules. There are possibilities for industrial expansion in these lines, and some of them will be pointed out in a subsequent article. Weldon H. Stein. Member Bank Earnings in 1947 Total earnings of Eighth District member banks in 1947 were substantially larger than in 1946, and income tax liabilities were smaller, but increased operating expenses and net charge-offs resulted in a substantial decline in net profits after taxes. Capital accounts increased and the ratio of net profits after taxes to capital accounts declined ap preciably from 1946 to 1947. The capital-deposit ratio rose, but with the rise in loans the ratio of capital to risk assets declined.1 The chart shows total earnings, total expenses, net current earnings and net profits for the years 1941 through 1947. It may be noted that total earn ings have increased steadily but total expenses also have grown steadily. The curve of net current earnings (the difference between operating earnings and expenses) slants upward, indicating that earn ings have grown faster than expenses, dollarwise, but the curve of net profits (which reflects net re coveries or charge-offs and income taxes) is much more flat and actually turns downward in 1947. 1 T he table on pages 36 and 37 shows the operating ratios o f E ighth D istrict member banks for 1947. The banks are divided into eight size classes on the basis of average deposits. R atios for each class and for all member banks com bined are averages of individual bank ratios, thus avoiding undue w eighting o f larger banks. T he average ratio for size SELECTED EARNING REPORT ITEMS OF EIGHTH DISTRICT MEMBER BANKS 19 4 1 1947 — M ILL IO N S OF D O L L A R S MILLIONS OF DOLLARS class and for all member banks, however, still masks substantial differ ences am ong individual banks. F or that reason, the range o f the middle 50 per cent o f ratios is shown also. I t should be noted that this is not the range o f all bank ratios. In each size class the individual bank ratios were arrayed in order and the extreme upper and lower fourth eliminated, leaving the middle 50 per cent which the table presents. Page 35 AVERAGE OPERATING RATIOS OF MEMBER BANKS, 1947 EIGHTH FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT Banks with Average Deposits o f ................................................... A ve ra g e of G roup Range within which fell middle 50% o f the banks % % CAPITAL AND DEPOSIT RATIOS—In Percentage Capital accounts to total assets................................................... Capital accounts to total assets less Government and cash assets Capital accounts to total deposits............................................... Time to total deposits.................................................................. Interest to time deposits (1)........................................................ Number of Banks............ ............................................. A vera g e of G roup Range within which fell middle 5 0 % o f the banks A vera ge of G roup Range within which fell middle 5 0% o f the banks Average of G rou p Range within which fell middle 50% o f the banks A vera g e of G roup Range within which fell middle 50% of the banks A verage of G roup % % % % % % % % % % % 19.0 18.5 15.1 3.6 16.5 15.1 11.9 3.0 12.2— 20.4 11.3— 18.8 8.8— 15.7 2.1— 3.7 1.8— 2.4 0.6— 1.2 0.5— 1.0 2.2 0.9 0.6 % % # 2.1— 12.5 2.1— 11.4 1.5— 10.2 0.4 12.5 12.1 10.2 2.3 2.6 0.8 0.6 2.0— 3.3 0.2— 1.3 0.1— 1.0 2.2 0.9 0.7 25.1 12.1— 39.0 10 4 1.4— 15.5 59.3 43.1— 84.5 5.2 1.6— 8.9 XXX 100.0 3.1 1.9— 4.0 38.5 26.3— 56.8 8.2 ...18.8 29.1 21.5— 36.8 60.7— 92.7 75.8 24 2 7.3— 39.3 —1.6 — 3.5— . . . . 3.0 0.8— 4.3 19.6 5.0— 33.9 38.7 3.6 47.0 10.7 100.0 6.5 30.4 6.2 25.7 62.3 37.7 —0.6 5.8 31.3 15.5 15.7 13.4 3.1 14.9 14.4 11.8 2.9 1.8— 2.5 0.6— 1.1 0.5— 0.9 2.2 0.9 0.7 7.8— 8.6— 7.0— 1.6— 30.6— 0.6— 37.0— 6.2— 47.3 4.3 57.0 14.9 XXX 1.8— 7.7 25.7— 34.4 10.2 20.2— 30.2 53.8— 68.6 31.4— 46.2 — 3.5— +3 .0 4.4— 7.4 23.2— 40.0 41.3 5.1 42.9 10.7 100.0 5.1 27.9 6.8 24.4 59.1 40.9 —1 3 7.0 32.6 10.7— 10.0— 8.6— 2.0— 29.4— 1.0— 29.6— 5.4— 52.4 8.0 53.7 15.3 XXX 2.3— 7.0 23.4— 30.6 0.8— 11.1 19.4— 26.6 51.8— 65.1 34.9— 48.2 - 3.5— +1.3 5.1— 9.4 26.6— 40.4 39.8 6.4 41.6 12.2 100.0 5.7 28.2 8.2 23.7 60.1 39.9 —2.4 7.7 29.8 17.0 15.5 11.2 3.1 13.2— 20.7 11.4— 19.6 7.7— 14.2 2.3— 3.9 2.5 1.0 0.8 2.2 0.9 0.6 1.9— 0.7— 0.4— 30.0— 49.1 1.9— 8.9 30.7— 53.3 7.0— 16.7 XXX 2.0— 8.7 24.3— 31.9 0.9— 11.8 20.4— 26.9 53.6— 65.7 34.3— 46.4 — 6.6— +1.9 5.2— 9.8 23.5— 36.7 35.8 8.0 41.3 14.9 100.0 5.7 28.4 8.8 22.6 59.8 40.2 —3.0 10.2 27.0 26.7— 2.7— 30.8— 9.7— 45.0 11.7 51.8 19.2 XXX 2.7— 7.3 24.5— 31.6 3.7— 13.1 18.4— 26.6 52.6— 67.0 33.0— 47.4 — 7.2---- bO.7 6.2— 13.6 19.8— 34.0 1.9— 0.7— 0.5— 2.4 1.0 0.7 2.5 2.2 1.4— 2.5 2.7 2.6 1.9— 3.3 2.6 ...— . . 4.4 —0.1 3.9— -- 0 . 1 — 4.9 .. . 4.0 —0.1 55.3 13.2 22.6 25.9 0.8 0.2 51.5 7.2 19.3 21.1 0.8 0.1 44.9— 3.3— 9.9— 15.9— 0.5— ...— 58.9 10.5 24.0 24.4 1.1 0.3 44.0 7.1 22.5 25.4 0.8 0.2 32.2— 0.6— 12.5— 21.8— 0.5— 0.1— 53.0 11.6 28.2 30.3 1.1 0.3 38.1 5.0 29.5 26.7 0.4 0.3 31.4— 1.8— 26.9— 25.6— 0.2— 0.2— 41.2 8.0 35.4 29.0 0.6 0.4 49.6 6.3 18 3 25.2 0.5 0.1 4.6— 5.9 14.6— 25.2 4.8— 6.3 10.0— 31.1 0.8— . 1.0 5.0 22.2 5.3 37.8 0.8 4.2— 5.3 13.7— 30.6 4.3— 5.6 26.2— 55.9 0.6— 0.9 5.4 20.1 5.7 21.1 0.8 4.7— 13.5— 4.9— 12.8— 0.6— 5.7 27.1 6.1 28.0 0 9 5.5 16.2 5.9 16.3 0.7 4.7— 6.4 14.2— 18.7 5.0— 6.9 8.3— 19.0 0.6— 0.9 5.9 28.4 6.3 20.9 0.9 1.4— 1.8 1.6 3.3 1.7— 5.2 3.1 2.0— 4.3 2.9 1,7— 3.5 2.5 1.7— 3.0 2.1 1.5— -0.1— ... -0.1— . . 5.5 —0.1 4.9— — 0.1— 6.1 ... 5.1 51.1 60.4 6.2 7.7 17.2 21.6 29.7 b 24.9 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.1 44.8— 1.8— 11.1— 21.1— 0.2— . . .— 59.0 9.0 21.9 28.3 0.7 ... 47.7 9.2 18.8 23.6 0.6 0.1 38.5— 2.7— 12.7— 20.1— 0.3— ...— 4.5— 6.4 18.4— 33.3 4.7— 6.8 4.8— 29.7 0.8— 1.0 5.6 22.6 6.0 24.1 0.9 31.4 5 4 27.8 34.8 0.6 9.7— 2.5— 15.3— 24.9— 0.2— ....— 51.8 9.0 44.9 41.9 0.9 0.1 48.8 3.5 17.9 29.2 0.5 0.1 43.0--56.5 0.5— 3.1 13.1— 21.4 23.3— 33.4 0.1— 0.6 51.4 5.0 17.1 26.1 0.4 43.5— 0.8— 9.9— 21.2— 0.1— ...— 11 2 39.9 12.7 19.7 1.3 10.1— 22.9— 11.2— 2.6— 0.6— 12.2 52.9 13.9 36.5 1.9 7.1 38.8 7.7 15.0 1.0 5.9— 7.9 26.6— 48.0 6.3— 8.6 2.4— 26.8 0.8— 1.5 6.3 33.6 6.8 16.5 0.9 5.2— 7.5 22.3— 39.2 5.4— 7.8 2.7— 25.0 0.7— 1.0 6 ---- — 38 113 5.6 28.2 6.0 20.4 0.9 189 38.6 6.3 42.5 12.6 100.0 5.5 28.7 8.1 24.0 60.8 39.2 —2.1 8.0 29.1 1.6 1.6 5.0— 6.4 -- 0 . 1 — . . . . 19.8— 36.2 2.2— 11.0 56.4 41.0 9. &— 23.8 XXX 1.4— 3.8 27.0— 33.6 2.9— 7.3 22.8— 28.0 56.3— 68.7 31.3— 43.7 — 4.4— + 3 .0 7.7— 14.4 21.9— 29.9 1.5 1.9 5.8 —0.1 2.2 0.9 0.6 1.2— 1.4— 5.5— 6.3 —0.1— + 0.2 2.1 0.9 0.6 1.4 1.6 6.0 +0.1 38.2 28.8— 46.2 6.8 3.2— 10.0 38.6 26.8— 52.7 16.4 10.4— 20.3 100.0 XXX 6.2 3.6— 8.2 30 6 26.2— 34.3 12.3 6.1— 18.6 23 6 20.4— 27.6 61.2— 73.3 66.5 26.7— 38.8 33.5 —2.2 -- 6.2---- hi . 2 9.2 7.1— 11.0 22.1 17.9— 27.0 1.7— 0.6— 0.4— 1.6 1.9 6.5 ... 29.3 6.4 49.0 15.3 100.0 3.0 30.4 6.1 25.6 62.1 37.9 —1.3 10.7 25.9 2.0 0.7 0.5 15.4 14.4 11.2 2.9 1.4— 1.4— 5.4— — 0.3— 33.8 24.2— 44.2 7.8 0.8— 12.8 42.3 29.1— 52.7 16.1 10.1— 20.5 XXX 100.0 4.7 3.3— 5.9 26.4— 36.1 30.5 7.9 3.3— 11.7 26.2 22.1— 32.0 54.3— 72.4 64.6 27.6— 45.7 35.4 —2.2 -- 8.3---- b2.6 9.2 5.8— 11.5 17.4— 29.2 24.0 1.8— 2.2 0.5— 0.8 0.3— 0.6 10.5— 14.8 10.3— 14.6 7.0— 10.4 2.5— 4.2 1.5 1.7 6.0 —0.2 1.8 0.7 0.5 2.1 0.7 0.5 10.8— 10.6— 6.9— 2.5— 1.6 2.2 . .— 1.9— 2.2 0.5— 0.9 0.4— 0.7 13.7 12.7 9.2 3.3 1.3— 1.6— .— 12.9 12.3 8.7 3.3 11.3— 18.0 10.3— 15.9 7.0— 12.8 2.4— 3.6 1.5 1.8 f O. l 17.7 15.2 10.7 3.9 14.5 13.4 9.4 2.9 4.6— 5.5 - 0.1— +0.1 79 37 1 6.9 6.3 5.5 2.3 (1) Banks reporting zero amounts were excluded in com puting this average and range. (2) Includes charge-offs for recurring depreciation on banking house, furniture, and fixtures. (3) Includes profits or losses from sales of securities. N O T E : Balance sheet figures used as a basis fo r ratios are averages o f amounts reported for Decem ber 31, 1946, June 30 and October 6, 1947. Range within which fell middle 50% o f the banks Range within A vera ge which fell middle of 50% of the t G roup banks CO iss DISTRIBUTION OF ASSETS Percentage of Total Assets: U. S. Government securities........................................................ Other securities............................................................................ Loans........... ............................................................................... Cash assets................................................................................... Real estate assets......................................................................... All other assets............................................................................. All District Member Banks $50,000,000 and Over $25,000,000 to $50,000,000 CO RATES OF EARNINGS ON SECURITIES AND LOANS Percentage of U. S. Government Securities: Interest on U. S. Government securities..................................... Percentage of Other Securities: Interest and dividends on other securities.................. ............. Percentage of Total Securities: Net recoveries on securities (+ ), charge-offs (—) (3)................ Percentage of Total Loans: Earnings on loans......................................................................... Net recoveries on loans (+ ), charge-offs (—) ............................. % % A verage of G roup $10,000,000 to $25,000,000 00 SOURCES AND DISPOSITION OF EARNINGS Percentage of Total Earnings: Interest on U. S. Government securities..................................... Interest and dividends on other securities................................... Earnings on loans......................................................................... All other earnings......................................................................... Total earnings................................................................ Service charges on deposit accounts (included in item 11) (1)... Salaries and wages....................................................................... Interest on time and savings deposits.......................................... All other expenses (2).................................................................. Total expenses (2)......................................................... Net current earnings before income taxes................................... Net recoveries (+ ), charge-offs (—) ............................................ Income taxes................................................................................ Net profits.................................................................................... Range within which fell middle 50% o f the banks $5,000,000 to $10,000,000 I SUMMARY RATIOS Percentage of Total Capital Accounts: Net current earnings before income taxes................................... Profits before income taxes........................................................ Net Profits.................................................................................. Cash dividends declared............................................................. Percentage of Total Assets: Total earnings.............................................................................. Net current earnings before income taxes................................... Net profits.................................................................................... A vera ge of G roup $2,000,000 to $5,000,000 $1,000,000 to $2,000,000 $500,000 to $1,000,000 Up to $500,000 — 0.1— + 0.2 - 0.1— +0.1 3.5— 4.3 -- 0 . 3 — .. . 14 3.2 —0.1 2.7— 3.3 — 0.2 . . .— 15 5.4 —0.1 491 Changes in Earning Assets— Banks derive their current earnings mainly from their security holdings and the loans they make to their customers. Other sources of current earnings include service charges and fees in connection with loans, service charges on deposit accounts, income from trust departments, real estate divisions, etc., and a variety of miscel laneous charges, commissions and fees. Over the past seven years Eighth District mem ber banks have registered great changes both in absolute volume of security holdings and loans and in the relative proportions held. In 1947, earning assets (loans and investments) amounted to 74.2 per cent of total assets; in 1941 the ratio was 61.7 per cent. In 1947, Eighth District member bank combined loans and investments increased. The rise in total loans and investments was common to all years, 1941 to 1947, with the exception of 1946, but the pattern of change differed from that of previous years. Total investments expanded in each year through 1945 and then declined in 1946 and 1947. Total loans declined from 1941 to 1942, rose again in 1943 and 1944 (but failed to reach the 1941 level) and then expanded sharply in the following three years. In 1946 the growth in loans failed to offset the decrease in security holdings; in 1947 loan ex pansion exceeded contraction in investments. The rise in investments from 1941 through 1945 stemmed from the heavy wartime expenditures of Government, much of which had to be met by borrowing from the banks. Government security holdings of all Eighth District member banks totaled $424 million at the end of 1941 and $2.7 billion at the end of 1945, a more than five-fold increase. Relative to total assets, holdings of Government securities averaged 21.9 per cent during 1942 and 52.8 per cent during 1945. dollar volume declined in only one year, 1942. As a proportion of total assets, loans declined steadily from 1941 through 1945. In 1941 outstanding loans averaged 34.8 per cent of total assets, but by 1945 had dropped to 12.1 per cent. In 1946 loan volume averaged 13.8 per cent of total assets, and in 1947 was 18.3 per cent. As noted, Eighth District member bank loans and investments shifted substantially in relative importance in 1947, and this shift was common to banks of various sizes (in terms of average de posits). Generally speaking, the relative shift was more pronounced in the smaller banks than in the larger ones. While Government security holdings at district banks declined from 1946 to 1947, both absolutely and relative to total assets, holdings of other securi ties increased. In dollar terms the gain was about $28 million from December, 1946 to December, 1947. Relative to total assets, the increase in average holdings in each year was from 5.1 per cent to 6.3 per cent. The gain was general, with all size-groups showing roughly similar changes in per cent of total assets in other securities, except for the very large banks (over $50 million deposits) where the proportion of total assets in other securities was the same in both years. Cash assets as a proportion of total assets, de clined slightly from 1946 to 1947 for Eighth District member banks as a whole, indicating a generally more full lean and investment position. At the larger banks, however, cash assets relative to total assets increased, with the rise more pronounced as the size of bank increased. The Treasury redemption program, begun in March, 1946, brought about a substantial reduction in bank holdings of Government securities. By the close of the year, district bank portfolios were $500 million less than a year earlier, and in 1947 they dropped another $200 million. Sources of Earnings— The bulk of bank earnings comes from loans and investments, but the share of earnings from each of these sources is not the same as the asset distribution because of varying rates of return. Government securities generally yield a lower rate of return than do other securities, and those in turn a lower rate than do loans. Varying maturities yield different returns. Loans at small banks, being generally smaller than those at large banks, carry higher interest rates. While Government securities were becoming the major source of income during the war years, loans were declining in relative importance, although In 1947, Eighth District banks received 42.5 per cent of their current earnings from loans, 38.6 per cent from Government securities, 6.3 per cent from Page 38 other securities and 12.6 per cent from other sources. Loans were the major source of income in 1947 at all size classes of banks. In 1946 loans ran second to Government securities as an income source. In 1941 banks depended mainly on loans for income and obtained 60.3 per cent of total earnings from that source. Income from Government and other securities was secondary in importance and furnished banks with only 24.1 per cent of total earnings. During the war years the tremendous volume of war financing increased income from Government securities until in 1945 member banks obtained over half of their total income from Gov ernment and other securities. After 1942, income from loans when measured against total earnings declined in each year and by 1945 supplied only 32.3 per cent of earnings. The change in the char acter of earning assets in 1947 resulted in loans exceeding Government securities as the major source of income for the first time since 1943. Banks earned an average of 5.4 per cent on loans as compared with 1.6 per cent on Government se curities. Very small banks had the highest rate of return on loans (6.0 per cent) but the rate declined as banks became larger in size and the very large banks earned only 3.2 per cent. Other current earnings continued in 1947 the decline in relative importance evident since 1943, dropping from 18.0 per cent of total current earn ings in that year to 12.6 per cent in 1947. The de crease reflects mostly the fact that other earnings are fairly constant from year to year and thus de cline in relative importance as total earnings rise. Disposition of Earnings— Salaries and wages con stitute the largest single expense item for banks, and used up 28.7 per cent of total earnings in 1947. This percentage was slightly larger than in the previous year but aside from 1946 was the lowest since 1941, indicating that while the dollar amount paid in salaries and wages has increased in the last seven years, it has not increased as much as total earnings. In 1947 salaries and wages increased at a slightly faster rate than earnings at all groups of banks except those with deposits between $500,000 and $1 million. The percentage of earnings used to pay salaries and wages ranged from a low of 27.9 per cent to a high of 38.5 per cent among the various size classes, and the range within the size classes was even more pronounced. All other operating expenses accounted for 32.1 per cent of current earnings in 1947, slightly less than a year earlier. Such expenses also have shown a definite downward trend relative to earnings since 1941, even though they have grown substantially in terms of dollars. After operating expenses were paid, banks had about the same percentage of earnings left as in 1946. The average for all banks was 39.2 per cent and among size groups ranged from 24.2 per cent to 40.9 per cent. Net profits, however, declined sharply from 34.0 per cent of total earnings in 1946 to 29.1 per cent in 1947. The failure of net profits to compare more favor ably with those reported in 1946 was due to net charge-offs instead of recoveries. In every year be tween 1943 and 1946, Eighth District member banks showed recoveries and profits from sales of securi ties exceeding charge-offs. W ith the depression years' carry-over of charged off items reduced to a practical minimum and with profits from sales on Governments largely eliminated in 1947, items charged off in that year exceeded recoveries and profits from sales. While 1947 net profits after income taxes and charge-offs were down from the 1946 peak, return on capital was still substantial and amounted to 11.2 per cent of total capital accounts. In 1941 the return was 8.0 per cent, and in 1942 it was but 6.5 per cent. Member banks during the last seven years have enjoyed good profits and have retained a large part of these profits to increase their capital structures. Member banks distributed to their stockholders slightly over one-fourth of net profits earned in 1947. Deposits expanded rapidly during the war years, and notwithstanding the banks’ retention of the greater portion of their net profits the ratio of capital accounts to deposits steadily declined from 14.1 per cent in 1941 to 6.0 per cent in 1946. The ratio increased in 1947 to 6.3 per cent. E. Francis DeVos; Page 39 SURVEY OF CURRENT CONDITIONS The significance of the recent break in commodity prices is still far from clear, as this Review goes to press. Obviously the key question is which of three major alternatives is denoted by the price decline: (1) The long-awaited “ readjustment” in prices which itself would aid in continuing high level activity; (2) a definite downturn to a lower level of activity; or (3) a temporary situation such as occurred last spring and fall and which signifies no real change in the inflationary potential. The situation has not yet developed sufficiently to answer this question with any confidence, partly because the attitude of business and of consumers is still uncertain, partly because a host of subsidiary questions relative to taxes, wage demands, credit controls, etc. are still unanswered. Meanwhile, certain points should be noted carefully. First, inflationary potentials, on balance, remain strong. W e still have an excessive money supply which is supporting a total demand for goods unmatched by supply. Consumer income remains at near record levels and consumer credit continues to expand. Business demand for new plant and equipment is strong and foreign demand for our goods is still remarkably high. Second, the fact that the recent price decline was concentrated in farm and food prices is significant. If sustained, lower food processing costs should be reflected in lower retail food prices. At the present time the food bill constitutes a larger proportion than usual of the average consumer's budget for expenditures. If retail food prices generally should level off at even 10 per cent below the highs of re C O N S U M P T IO N O F E L E C T R I C I T Y Jan., D ec., Jan., Jan., 1948 ( K .W .H . N o .o fC u s - 1948 1947 1947 Compared with in thous.) tomers* K .W .H . K .W .H . K .W .H . D ec., *47 Jan., *47 — 3% 9,081 Evansville ....... ... 40 8,849 8,244 R 4- 7% — 9 Little R o ck .... , 35 4,781 3,634 R 4,345 4- 20 1 63,666 63,102 57,745 R Louisville ........... 80 4- 10 4— 4 Memphis ......... ... 31 5,372 5,600 5,296 4- 1 4-311 Pine B luff ..... 9 6,350 6,953 1,545 2 St. L ou is.......... 74,642 69,901 73,084 R 4- 7 + Totals ............ 309 163,224 159,114 149.852R 4- 3% 4* 9 % * Selected industrial customers. — R — Revised. L O A D S IN T E R C H A N G E D Jan., ’48 120,723 Source F O R 25 R A I L R O A D S A T ST. L O U I S First Nine Days D ec., ’ 47 Jan., '47 Feb., ’ 48 Feb., ’ 47 1 mo. ’ 48 1 mo. ’ 47 121,381 123,390 33,341 37,209 120,723 123,390 Term inal Railroad A ssociation of St. Louis. C R U D E O IL P R O D U C T IO N (I n thousands o f bbls.) Jan., ’48 Arkansas ........... . Illinois .............. Indiana .............. .... 17.7 K entucky .......... .... 26.7 T otal .............. Page 40 D ec., ’ 47 85.9 176.7 18.3 27.7 308.6 Jan., ’ 47 78.7 196.6 17.9 28.8 322.0 Jan., *48 compared with Jan., ’ 47 D ec., ’ 47 4- 2% 4 -11% — 13 — 3 — 1 — 3 __ 4 — 7 — 6% — 2% cent months, consumers’ monthly costs for the basic necessities would be lowered appreciably. With less money required for food, consumers should have more money available to buy other types of goods. Third, it should be observed that many manufac turers can look forward to only slightly lower raw materials costs as a result of the commodity price decline in January and February. Average indus trial raw materials prices on March 1, as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics cash price index, were only 5 per cent below the January peak as compared with declines of 13 per cent in prices of foodstuffs and 11 per cent in agricultural commodi ties. It is important to note that the decline in average industrial raw materials prices did not re flect a general lowering of prices for materials of this type. Decreases occurred only in the rosin, hides, rubber, print cloth and burlap components of the index. Prices of other and more important raw materials, including nonferrous metals, steel scrap, wool, silk and shellac were unchanged or higher than at the January peak. Consequently, since even the minor decline in average industrial raw mate rials prices was concentrated in a relatively few commodities, manufacturers’ cost in many indus tries, and prices consumers pay for their finished products, are not likely to reflect the recent decline in the grain markets. Finally, it will be increasingly important to watch the actions of business men and consumers as a result of this break in commodity prices. How much of the super-optimism that prevailed at the end of the year has been changed into pessimism cannot be measured as yet. Depressions do not occur solely because of consumer and business attitude but such attitude does accentuate swings in economic activity. EM PLOYM EN T Employment in the nation and in the Eighth District decreased between December and January, principally as the result of seasonal decreases in retail trade, Government service, and construction industries. January, 1948 employment in the dis trict was approximately 3 per cent higher than in January, 1947. The employment decrease in the St. Louis area between November and January was principally the result of seasonal drops in trade and construction employment. Manufacturing employment remained stable as increases in the apparel and leather indus tries offset decreases in transportation equipment. Relatively large gains are anticipated (according to employers' estimates) for the next four months in manufacturing, construction, trade and service em ployment, with the automobile and aircraft indus tries expected to hire the most new workers. In Louisville, employment reached a postwar high in December but by January dropped back to about the November level. This drop occurred principally in the trade and distilleries industries. The Ken tucky State Employment Service reports that em ployment is expected to remain constant during the next two months as increases in manufacturing will be offset by decreases in nonmanufacturing. In Memphis, employment has remained relatively stable for the past few months, but is expected to increase in the future as new plants get into full production. In Evansville, employment rose slightly between November and January, and is expected to continue to increase gradually during the next four months. In Little Rock, nonagricul tural employment decreased during January as the result of seasonal declines in retail trade, food, lumbering, and construction industries. Employ ment is expected to grow by May as increases in instrument, lumber and apparel manufacturing are expected to more than offset declines in cotton oil mill operations and retail trade activity. INDUSTRY The level of industrial activity in the Eighth District in January was not much changed from December. Manufacturing operations in many parts of the district were interrupted during the latter part of the month as a result of adverse weather conditions but apparently averaged higher than in December. Coal production increased but oil output was slightly less than in the preceding month. New construction begun in January, as measured by the value of building permits awarded, declined sharply but on-site activity on projects begun late last year remained at a fairly high level. Total industrial power consumption in the major district cities in January increased 3 per cent over December and 9 per cent over January, 1947. The increase was concentrated in St, Louis, where indus tries used 7 per cent more electrical power than in the previous month. When adjusted to a daily average basis, power consumption by industries in Memphis, Louisville, and Evansville increased slightly, while decreases were registered in the other reporting cities. Power consumption in most of the industrial areas was affected by the severe cold wave in the latter part of the month, which resulted in fuel gas shortages and temporary suspensions of production in a number of industries. Manufacturing— General manufacturing activity was at a high level in January, but in certain of the district cities aggregate output of some indus tries was curtailed because of the lack of fuel gas. Industries in which operations increased over De cember included those manufacturing lumber pro ducts, automobiles, chemicals, machinery, metals and metal products, and transportation equipment. Declines were indicated in the manufacture of food products, whiskey, meat packing, and stone, clay and glass products. Steel—Scheduled operations of the basic steel industry in the St. Louis area in January were at 77 per cent of capacity, a slight drop from the 81 per cent in December, but a considerable increase over the 58 per cent of January of last year. The decrease resulted from an acute scrap shortage dur ing the latter part, of the month. Lumber—According to preliminary estimates, lumber production in January showed slight gains over December and January, 1947. Reporting south ern hardwood mills were operating at 76 per cent of capacity, compared with 68 per cent in December and 73 per cent in January a year ago. Average production of southern pine mills in January was the same as in December and about 8 per cent above that of January, 1947. Whiskey—At the close of January, 24 distilleries were in operation in Kentucky, compared with 58 at the same time a year ago and 38 at the end of December. While awaiting Congressional action, distillers in the main have voluntarily restricted production, using grain at a rate equivalent to about 3 to 4 million bushels per month. This program would permit operations at about 50 per cent of capacity, which probably would produce enough whiskey to meet requirements.* Whiskey production in Kentucky in December, when the grain-saving program was in full force, totaled only 403,000 tax gallons, less than 4 per cent of production in December, 1946. Shoe Production— District shoe production in December totaled 8.3 million pairs according to pre liminary estimates. This was 9 per cent above B U IL D IN G P E R M IT S (M on th o f January) N ew Construction Repairs, etc. Cost Num ber (C ost in Num ber Cost 1948 1947 1948 1947 thousands) 1948 1947 1948 1947 58 51 $ 112 $ 139 56 $ 43 Evansville ........ .... $ 45 55 63 Iyittle R o ck ....... .... 71 92 785 596 108 88 127 537 796 36 42 68 151 35 Memphis .......... , .. 607 552 2,730 1,188 99 95 135 115 496 175 923 1,130 147 256 191 St. I<ouis.......... 550 $572 $736 Jan. T otals........ ....1,008 1,021 $5,087 $3,849 442 658 $774 Dec. Totals....... ....1,399 $7,569 $2,134 440 420 $507 Page 41 TRADE D E PA R TM E N T STORES Stocks Stock N et Sales on Hand Turnover Jan. 1 to Jan. 31, ’ 48 Jan., ’ 48 Jan. 31, com pared with comp, with 1947 D ec., ’ 47 Jan., ’ 47 Jan. 31, ’ 47 1948 .30 .31 Ft. Smith, A rk ........ — 1% . — 56% 4 1% .34 .32 — 3 4-17 Little R ock, A rk ...... „ — 57 .29 .29 419 .. — 54 Q uincy, 111.................. 4- ^ .24 .26 — 2 — 55 4-14 Evansville, In d ......... .33 .34 .. — 58 Louisville, K y ............ 410 4- 8 .29 .32 — 1 4-11 St. Louis A r e a l....... — 49 .29 .33 — 2 . — 49 4-10 St. Louis, M o ...... 4-42 , — 17 E. St. Louis, 111.. ’ 28 "24 Springfield, M o .......... .. — 54 412 4- 4 .32 .26 — 6 , — 60 Memphis, T enn......... 421 .22 .26 *A11 other cities....... 424 — 58 4- 4 .30 .30 .. — 53 4 6 4- 6 le, Pine Bluff, Ark. ; Harrisburg, Jacksonville, M t. V ernon, 111.; N ew A lbany, Vincennes, I n d .; Danville, Hopkinsville, Mayfield, Paducah, K y . ; Chillicothe, M o .; and Jackson, Tenn. 1 Includes St. Louis, M o., East St. Louis, A lton and Belleville, 111. Trading d a ys: January, 1948— 2 6 ; December, 1947,— 2 6 ; January, 1947— 26. Outstanding orders of reporting stores at the end of January, 1948, were 3 per cent greater than on the corresponding date a year ago. Percentage of accounts and notes receivable outstanding January 1, 1948, collected during January, by cities: E xcluding Excluding Instalm ent Instalm ent Instalment Instalment A ccoun ts A ccounts A ccoun ts Accounts 51% Q uincy ............ 29% 64% F ort Smith .............. % Little R ock .... 23 51 St. Louis ........ 31 54 Louisville ........ 24 51 Other cities .... 23 54 Memphis .......... 29 48 8th F. R. Dist. 28 52 IN D E X E S OF D E P A R T M E N T STO R E SALES AN D STOCKS 8th Federal Reserve District Sales (daily average), U nadjusted 2......... Sales (daily average), Seasonally adjusl Stocks, U nadjusted 3 .................................... Stocks, Seasonally a d ju sted 3.................... 2 Daily Average 1935-39 = 100 3 End of M onth A verage 1 9 3 5 -3 9= 1 0 0 Jan., 1948 239 292 265 308 D ec., 1947 516 337 250 297 N ov., 1947 428 339 310 290 Jan., 1947 228 278 250 291 S P E C IA L T Y STORES Stocks Stock N et Sales on Hand Turnover Jan., ’ 48 Jan. 31, ’48 Jan. 1 to com pared with comp, with Jan. 31, D ec., ’47 Jan., *47 Jan. 31, ’ 47 1948 1947 M en’ s Furnishings ............ — 61% 4 - 2% -f-13% .25 .27 B oots and Shoes................... — 43 4- 7 4-41 .32 .35 Percentage of accounts and notes receivable outstanding January 1, 1948, collected during January: M en’ s Furnishings....................... 47% B oots and Shoes....................... 47% Trading d a ys: January, 1948— 2 6 ; December, 1947— 2 6 ; January, 1947— 26. R E T A IL F U R N IT U R E STO RES N et Sales Inventories Jan., 1948 Jan., 1948 Ratio of com pared with compared with Collections D ec. ’47 Jan.’ 47 Dec. ’47 Jan. ’47 Jan. ’48 Jan. ’47 — 45% 4 -20 % 33% 35% 4- 10 % 4- 1 % — 44 420 34 35 4- 9 4 - *1 * * * * A lton ........ Louisville ...... — 53 4-20 27 18 4-31 4- 9 Memphis ........ — 56 — 2 — 10 427 18 24 — 43 Little R ock .. — 4 — 6 25 35 4- 9 * * * * Springfield .... — 30 — 17 8th D istrict 1 — 46 27 33 416 4- 6 4- 1 * N ot shown separately due to insufficient coverage, but included in Eighth D istrict totals. 1 Includes St. Louis, M issou ri; East St. Louis and A lton, Illinois. 2 In addition to above cities, includes stores in Blytheville, Fort Smith and Pine Bluff, A rkansas; O w ensboro, K en tu cky; Greenville, Greenwood, M ississippi; Springfield, M issou ri; and Evansville, Indiana. P E R C E N T A G E D IS T R IB U T IO N O F F U R N IT U R E Jan., *48 D ec., *47 Cash Sales ................................................ 17% 20% Credit Sales ............................................. 83 80 T otal Sales ......................................... 100 100 Page 42 SALES Jan., ’ 47 23% 77 100 November output and 7 per cent larger than that of December, 1946. Production was the largest for any December of record. M eat P ack in g — Meat packing operations in the St. Louis area in January were considerably below December operations and about 3 per cent less than in January of last year. The number of animals slaughtered under Federal inspection totaled 505,000, compared to 603,000 in December and 523,000 in January, 1947. Mining and Oil— Production of bituminous coal in the district in January totaled 11.6 million tons according to preliminary reports. This was a 4 per cent increase over December and was about the same as production in January, 1947. The largest increase was registered in western Kentucky where output was up 9 per cent over December and 24 per cent over January a year ago. Preliminary estimates of crude oil production in the district states in January show a daily average of 303,000 barrels, a 2 per cent decrease from De cember, 1947 and about 6 per cent below the rate in January, 1947. Daily production in Arkansas increased somewhat over the previous month, but this was offset by decreases in Illinois, Indiana and Kentucky. C on stru ction — The value of building permits awarded in the major district cities in January totaled $5.7 million as compared with $8.3 million in December and $4.6 million in January of last year. Increases over December occurred in Mem phis and Little Rock, but these failed to offset sharp declines in St. Louis, Louisville, and Evansville. The value of permits in the latter cities also was down as compared with January, 1947. TRADE During January, 1948, department store sales (dollar amount) declined more than seasonally. In dexes of sales, adjusted for seasonal variation for January, 1948, December, 1947, and January, 1947, were 292, 337 and 278 per cent, respectively, of the 1935-39 period. Despite adverse weather conditions, district sales volume during the first half of the month ran higher than in the latter part, appar ently being stimulated by post-holiday sales events. These promotions this year were primarily because of tradition rather than being designed to reduce inventories. Actually retailers find that replace ment of inventory in many lines will be made at increased prices. The supply situation has improved, however, and little difficulty is reported in obtaining replacements in all but a few of the major durable lines, although, as noted, at higher prices. Inventories at reporting department stores at the end of January, 1948, were 7 per cent more than on December 31, 1947, and were 6 per cent larger than at the end of January, 1947. At reporting women’s apparel stores January sales volume declined 39 per cent from the previous month, but was 1 per cent less than in January, 1947. In terms of value, inventories at women’s apparel stores were 6 per cent larger at the end of the month than on December 31, 1947, but were 18 per cent greater than on January 31, 1947. Dollar sales at men’s apparel stores during Janu ary declined 61 per cent from December, but were slightly above the comparable month last year. The value of inventories held by reporting men’s stores at the end of January was up from both the end of the previous month and the comparable date in 1947. January sales volume at reporting furniture stores was 46 per cent below December, 1947, but was 6 per cent above the level of January, 1947. Antici pation of traditional February sales events and adverse weather conditions had a somewhat limiting effect on the volume of furniture store sales during the month. Inventories of reporting furniture stores at the end of January were slightly above those re ported at the end of December, and 16 per cent above those reported for January, 1947. BANKING AND FINANCE Since the beginning of the year, Eighth District banks have lost demand deposits and have shown a decline in earning assets. Between December 31, 1947 and February 18, 1948, total demand deposits of the weekly reporting banks in the district drop ped slightly more than $200 million. About half of this decline reflected withdrawal of interbank balances by correspondent banks, but the remainder represented a decrease in demand deposits of indi viduals, partnerships and corporations. Time de posits continued to increase but the net gain in the seven weeks was just $1 million, a much slower rate of gain than occurred in the comparable period last year. Bank loans decreased in the seven-week period. Total loans of the weekly reporting banks declined about $16 million with business loans off $13 million and security loans off $10 million. Real estate and “ other” loans continued to rise, showing gains of $3 million and $4 million, respectively. The de crease in commercial, industrial and agricultural loans at the district banks apparently is mainly seasonal in character. Except for 1941, such loans at weekly reporting banks here have declined from year-end through the late spring in every year since 1939. WHOLESALING Stocks N et Sales Jan. 31, 1948 Jan.,. 1948 compared with com pared with Jan., ’4 7 Jan. 31, 1947 D ec., ’ 47 Lines of Commodities Data furnished by Bureau of Census U. S. Dept, of Com m erce* Autom otive Supplies .................. ....... Drugs and Chemicals.................. ....... — 4% + 5 Groceries ..~................................... ....... + 1 1 Hardware ........................................ Plum bing Supplies ....................... , — 3 T obacco and its P rodu cts......... ....... — 12 Miscellaneous ............................... ...... +13 **Total all lines..................................... — 3% * Preliminary. ** Includes certain items n ot listed above. — 4% +14 — 4 — 3 + 8 — 19 — 2 + 14 + 2% + 3% — 2 + 6 +43 + 10 +21 + 11% PRICES W H O L E S A L E P R I C E S IN T H E U N I T E D S T A T E S Bureau of Labor Statistics Jan.. ’ 48 com p, with Jan., *47 (1926 = 100) D ec., *47 Jan., ’ 48 D e c., *47 Jan., '47 + 1 7 .0 % A ll Commodities... ... 165.6 163.1 141.5 + 1 .5 % + 2 0 .7 Farm Products. ... 199.2 + 1 .3 196.7 165.0 + 1 5 .2 Foods ................. 178.4 156.2 + 0 .8 Other ................. + 1 6 .1 127.6 145.3 + 1 .9 R E T A IL F O O D P R IC E S Bureau of Labor Statistics Jan. 15, D ec. 15, Jan. 15, Jan. 15, ’48 com pared with (1935-39 = 100) 1948 1947 1947 D ec. 15, ’ 47 Jan. 15, ’ 47 U .S. (51 cities).... 209.7 206.9 183.8 +14% + 1% St. Louis .......... 217.2 +16 215.2 187.4 + 1 -o . Little R ock .... 211.4 211.8 182.4 + 16 Louisville ........ 200.1 198.9 177.7 +13 + 1 Memphis ........... .230.7 -0 +15 229.7 200.2 BANKING P R IN C IP A L A SSE T S A N D L IA B IL IT IE S F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S Change from Feb. 19, Jan. 21. Feb. 18, 1947 1948 (I n thousands of dollars) 1948 Industrial advances under Sec. 13b.... $ .......... $ .......... 2,937 3,756 + 17,695 + Other advances and rediscounts............ - 42,538 + 23,623 U . S. securities........................................... -$38,782 + $2 6 ,5 6 0 Total earnings assets................................ $1,150,958 -$35,730 - - 66,767 - 14,090 T otal reserves ............................................. .... $ 643,795 686,978 F. R . notes in circulation....................... .... 1,109,051 + $ 4,581 + 15,597 + 14.678 — $ 3.645 -0Industrial commitments under Sec. 13b..$ 580 P R IN C IP A L A SSET S A N D L IA B IL IT IE S W E E K L Y R E P O R T IN G M E M B E R B A N K S Change from (In thousands of dollars) Feb. 19, Jan. 21, Feb. 18, 1947 1948 1948 Assets + $ 5,666 — $ 92,670 Total loans and investments.................. ..$2,102,375 (Comm ercial, industrial, and agri — 14,871 + 120.594 cultural loans, open market paper).,. 595,087 Loans to brokers and dealers in se 3,020 348 — 6,989 + curities ..................................................... Other loans to purchase and carry 4,151 — 36,927 30,630 — securities ................................................ . 29,855 1,127 + Real estate loans............ ........................... . 146,426 + 193 1,955 — Loans to banks.......................................... 993 — 39.304 1,244 + Other loans ................................................. . 184,951 20,746 + 149,613 T otal loans ............................................ . 965,076 — 32,869 20,921 + Treasury bills ............................................ 39,012 — 2,336 — 29,934 . 100,179 + 6,517 — 80,544 Treasury notes ........................................... 91,483 U . S. bonds including guaranteed o b 46,356 — 65,936 ligations ................................................... . 760.665 — 466 — 402 145,960 — Other securities ........................................ . T otal investments ............................... . 1,137,299 —, 71,924 — 143,947 58,356 + 25,700 Cash assets .......................................... ...... . 735,342 — 1,360 — 413 Other assets ............... ............................... 25,064 + T otal assets .......................................... .$2,862,781 — $149,666 + $ 30,953 Liabilities Demand deposits— total ......................... .$2,192,024 Individuals, partnerships, and cor porations ........................................ . 1,412,435 Interbank demand deposits................ . 625,004 U. S. Government deposits................ 24,078 Other demand deposits........................ . 130,507 Demand deposits— adjusted* ............... . 1,329,940 . 474,030 Borrow ings ................................................ 11,350 Other liabilities ........................................ 15.670 Total capital accounts............................. . 169,707 Total liabilities and capital accounts... .$2,862,781 — $155,454 +$ 4,678 74,561 — 93,125 9.592 + 2,640 + 41,969 1,260 + 2,600 + 485 + 1,443 + — $149,666 + — — + + + + — + +$ 90,881 41,448 52,268 7,513 81,714 15,928 3,050 985 8,282 30,953 — * Other than interbank and Governm ent deposits, less cash items on hand or in process o f collection. Page 43 Weekly reporting bank investments also declined in the period from December 31 to February 18. The decrease reflected primarily continued sales of Treasury bonds as investors showed an increased desire for liquidity. Note holdings also showed some decrease in the seven weeks. About twothirds of the funds realized from bond and note sales apparently were reinvested in Treasury bills and certificates which, combined, were $45 million higher on February 18 than on December 31. The short-term issues have become much more attrac tive as bank investments with the rise in interest rates. products themselves, and a lowering of farm prod uct prices— especially those of feed, flour, certain meats, etc.— leads to a decline in the index of prices paid by farmers. As prices of farm commodities drop, however, the index of prices received declines more than that of prices paid, since prices paid by farmers include manufactured and processed articles, the prices of which are relatively stable Thus, the parity ratio (index of prices received divided by index of prices paid, including interest and taxes) tends to narrow. As prices of farm commodities dropped, the parity ratio declined from 122 on January 15 to 112 on February 15. Farmers, of course, buy various farm Before the commodity price break, prices paid had been moving up faster than prices received. For example, the index of prices received was at a record on January 15 (307 per cent of the 1910-14 average), up 2 per cent from December 15. In the same period the index of prices paid reached 251, up 2.5 per cent, and the parity ratio dropped from 123 to 122. In addition to prices for food and feed rising from December to January, real estate taxes also increased due to higher valuations and higher rates. Even with the fall in farm commodity prices, they remain well above the level of a year ago. Farm income in January was $2.6 billion, 15 per cent higher than in January, 1947, but, due to seasonally smaller marketings, it was lower than in December. Income from livestock was $1.5 billion, 10 per cent more than a year earlier. Crop receipts were $1.1 billion, 10 per cent less than December, but about a fifth higher than a year earlier. Demand for burley tobacco continued strong through January. Ninety per cent of the crop had been sold by January 23 at an average price of 40.2 cents per pound. DEBITS TO DEPO SIT ACCOUNTS AGRICULTURE AGRICULTURE The most dramatic development of the past month concerning agriculture was the sharp break in farm commodity prices. While prices of some commodities had shown some weakness in the latter part of January, the abrupt decline following Febru ary 3 was not generally anticipated. For several days, future prices of farm products (wheat, corn, soybeans, oats, and qotton) dropped the permissible limit each day. Apparently in sympathy, livestock and butter prices also moved appreciably lower. The decline in prices was one of the sharpest in history. At the low points, wheat was off 19 per cent from February 3, corn off 21 per cent, and soy beans down 16 per cent. After a few days of limit declines, prices, while gyrating rather wildly, tended to fluctuate around somewhat higher levels than the low point of the market. 00 Tf" »-» i comp, with Jan., D ec., Jan., (I n thousands 1948 1947 1947 Dec., ’47 Jan., ’ 47 in dollars) +25% E l D orado, A rk ....... $ 21,162 $ 22,191 $ 16,898 — 5% — 1 +17 34,506 F ort Smith, A rk ..... 40,362 40,861 — 3 +13 Helena, A rk .............. 8,749 9,035 7,729 Little R ock, A rk ..... 114,363 120,522 106,320 — 5 + 8 29,223 Pine B luff, A rk ....... 28,804 26,769 + 9 + 1 — 8 11,107 9,705 Texarkana, A rk .-T ex:. 10,207 + 5 Alton, 111.................... 25,363 25,431 19,414 -0 * +31 — 4 +18 134,043, E .S t.L .-N a t.S .Y .,Ill. 128,607 108,623 __ i Q uincy, 111................ +27 31,736 32,169 24,936 + 34 Evansville, In d ........ , 120.997 114,453 90,123 + 6 517,043 Louisville, K y ........... — 11 +10 581,217 471,089 Ow ensboro, K y ....... 31,568 37,206 30,191 — 15 + 5 Paducah, K y ............. — 7 +17 16,016 13,633 17,151 — 9 Greenville, M iss....... 22,875 16,354 20,925 +28 + 12 Cape Girardeau, M o. 11,721 10,475 9,742 +20 — 3 H annibal, M o ........... 8,265 8,496 7,568 + 9 Jefferson City, M o.. 33,210 51,187 +58 52,612 + 3 St. Louis, M o .......... 1,493,243 1,709,644 1,322,736 — 13 +13 Sedalia, M o ................ 10,317 10,796 9,558 — 4 + 8 — 3 Springfield, M o ......... 58,682 49,359 56,964 + 15 Jackson, T enn.......... . — 12 17,589 20,067 15,834 +11 M emphis, T enn........ . 645,954 468,944 — 18| 529,146 +13 Totals ...................,$3,296,178 $3,694,389 $2,911,218 — 11 +13 Page 44 C ASH F A R M IN C O M E D ec., ’ 47 com p, with 12 month total Jan. to D ec., (I n thousands D ec., N ov., D ec., 1947 com p, with o f dollars) 1947 1947 1946_ 1947 1946 1945 Arkansas ........$ 55,150 — 5% + 3% $ 490,001 4 -1 2 % +57% Illinois ............ 178,051 — 17 +16 1,869,729 +29 +57 Indiana .......... 99,299 — 12 +23 1,079,751 +27 +53 Kentucky ...... 126,396 + 3 1 2 +56 579,258 +32 +36 Mississippi .... 59,247 + 4 4-81 473,439 +56 +43 Missouri ........ 111,628 — 4 4-14 1,080,676 +25 +52 Tennessee ...... 66,120 + 77 +28 485,938 +22 +43 _ Totals ..........$ 69 i,8 9 l + 1 1 % +26% $6,058,792 +28% + 51 ,% R E C E IP T S A N D S H IP M E N T S A T N A T I O N A L S T O C K Y A R D S Receipts Shipments Jan., Jan., ’ 48 com p, with Jan., Jan., ’ 48 com p, with 1948 D ec., ’ 47 Jan., ’47 1948 D ec., ’ 47 Jan., *47 Cattle and calves.. 103,248 — 20% — 25% 28,211 — 14% — 41% H o gs .....................264,012 — 7 + 2 70,834 + 1 — 6 Sheep ................... 41,393 — 27 — 17 5,851 — 24 — 43 Horses ................... 1,545 + 1 0 4 — 72 1.545 +104 — 72 Totals .............. 410,198 — 13% — 9 % 106,441 — 4 % — 23%