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ITIONS BUSINE Monthly Review of Agri ziftt y, Trade and Finance Released for Publication i i A ers of December 1,1944 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS C O U R T E S Y O F I N T E R N A T IO N A L . H A R V E S T E R C O M P A N Y G EN ERAL IN D U STR IA L SITU ATIO N E C E M B E R 7, 1944, will mark the third anni versary of this nation’s actual participation in W orld W ar II. B y the end of the first year the powerful drive of the German-Italian-Japa nese combination finally had been halted; by the close of the second, Italy had been knocked out of the w a r ; and at the finish of the third, Allied armies are across the eastern and western frontiers of Germany, while Allied land, sea, and air power has reconquered vast areas of the Pacific and United States troops again fight in the Philippines. D Much of the credit for these accomplishments belongs to United States industry. Even though actual munitions production prior to December, 1941, was almost negligible compared with current output, mobilization of industrial resources began long before Pearl Harbor. In 1940 physical output of our factories and mines, even under the stimulus of six months of defense contracts, was but 25 per cent greater than average production in the five-year period, 1935-1939. In November, 1943, at the peak of our war production effort, the rate of output on an annual scale was double the 1940 average. That month saw durable manufactures, most of which were for war, produced at an annual rate 170 per cent greater than in 1940. Since the fall of 1943, munitions production has been held at a fairly stable level, with a quarterly average rate almost eight times that of 1941 and more than 16 times that of 1940. This munitions program has been largely superimposed upon an expanding civilian econom y, while in addition a military establishment of more than 11 million men and women was being formed. The attainent of virtual capacity operations of our industrial plant would be remarkable even without the necessary difficulties such as rapid changes in requirements and in types of products needed at tendant upon any war program. The smooth run ning of the industrial machine, in view of these necessary but frictional changes, has been phen omenal. A recent release of the W ar Production Board highlights some of these changes in programming. For example, the aircraft program in the first quarter of 1943 accounted for 21 per cent of the value df total munitions output. This program was scheduled for more rapid expansion than the total program and for the first three quarters of 1944 accounted for more than 30 per cent of the value of total munitions output. Due to changes necessitated Page 2 by combat experience and a relatively low loss ratio, the aircraft program in the last quarter of this year will account for only 27 per cent of total value. A m munition output in 1943 averaged slightly more than 10 per cent of the total value of munitions and was originally scheduled for a sharp drop in 1944. Due to more rapid use than was expected, however, ammunition requirements have been revised upward and for the last quarter of 1944 will represent more than 12 per cent of total output. The general stability of output of munitions in the past year has been accompanied by a substantial decline in employment in munitions factories. Since January, 1944, employment and man hours in war plants have declined 9 per cent, while total output (quarterly production at an annual rate) is off only 1 per cent. This means that worker productivity has risen appreciably in the period. In this district experience has been somewhat similar to national experience during the war period. The similarity, however, is primarily in direction rather than in magnitude of change. On the basis of previous industrialization, the district received more than its share of new plant in the construc tion era of the war program. Its initial supply con tracts were also larger than might have been ex pected. As the war program grew, however, the district proportion of total contracts let fell steadily until, on a cumulative basis, its share dropped be low the proportion that its prewar manufacturing production bore to the national total. This was due partly to the concentration of awards in the heavy industry centers o fsthe nation and partly to the fact that much of the district expansion was in facilities that came in for early curtailment of operations. In any event current district munitions output is off appreciably more from the peak than is national production. In October district industrial activity was slightly higher than in September but was down from a year ago. Consumption of industrial electric power in major district cities increased seasonally 6 per cent over September, and was up 2 per cent over October, 1943. As mentioned, munitions output was down from the peak level of last fall, and the drop in this category was not com pletely offset by in creases in other manufacturing lines. O ctober steel production moved up slightly, as did output of whiskey, shoes, meat packing, coal, and some few munitions lines. M A N U F A C T U R IN G Iron and Steel — Output of steel mills and foun dries during O ctober averaged somewhat less per week than in the preceding month. Ingot-producing furnaces in the St. Louis area operated at an aver age rate of 74 per cent of capacity in October, as contrasted with 81 per cent during September. In early November, however, the operating rate was increased somewhat. The relatively low operating rate in terms of capacity production is due in part to the necessity for frequent repairs to furnaces largely overworked during the past three y e a rs; in part to the shutdown of others because of high cost operations that make production unprofitable at current p rices; and in part to a relative shortage of labor, particularly in a few essential lines. As contributory factors, un authorized strikes and, more recently, lessened de mand in terms of future orders for the war program have retarded operations. The very recent increase in war demand, however, should result in mainten ance of a higher operating rate for the next few months. Shoes— Output of shoe factories in the Eighth District during O ctober m oved up seasonally 6 per cent, according to preliminary reports, and produc tion was 11 per cent above October, 1943. For the first ten months of this year district shoe production was 2 per cent greater than in the comparable period of 1943. Final shoe production figures for September indicate that 6,950,000 pairs were pro duced in that month, as compared with 6,736,000 pairs in September, 1943. Whiskey — T w o more Kentucky distilleries were in operation at the close of O ctober than at the end of the previous month, and three more than on the comparable date a year earlier. Production of all distilleries is again concentrated in industrial alco hol for the war program. and explosives. Substantial facilities for such out put are located here. D eclining programs are ex pected to more than offset this gain, however, so that total munitions output will continue to decrease slowly. Meat packing activity m oved up seasonally in O ctober as the fall runs of hogs came in heavier volume and there was continuation of heavy cattle and calf slaughter. A t St. Louis federally-inspected slaughter in terms of animal units killed in October was 13 per cent above September but was fraction ally lower than October, 1943. Output of lumber at district mills, despite very heavy demand, is run ning well below production attained both a year and tw o years ago. O I L A N D M IN IN G Production of crude petroleum in the Eighth Dis trict so far in 1944 is slightly below 1943 output despite heavy war demand. Available production data by states is not com pletely current, but for the first eight months of this year crude petroleum out put in the district was 1 per cent below the compar able period of 1943, with output in only two months of 1944 greater than in the corresponding months a year earlier. On the basis of daily average produc tion at district fields both September and October production were also lower than in September and October, 1943. W hile output of crude petroleum in 1944 has been below 1943, drilling activity in both established and unproved fields has been greater this year. Through October, 1944, there were 2,569 oil well completions in the district compared with 2,249 in the same period in 1943. A bout one in every six wells drilled this year was a wildcat well with 458 completions of this type, 49 of which were producers. A ctivity has been greater in every district producing state except Arkansas, with the heaviest gain in drilling in Kentucky. A recent announcement of the W ar Production Board authorized another whiskey production holi day for the month of January, 1945. Trade sources estimate that between 20 million and 25 million proof gallons of whiskey will be produced in K en tucky during the com ing holiday, and it is probable that straight bourbon whiskey will be produced in view of the bumper corn crop this year. Coal production at district mines in October was 4 per cent above September, and was 11 per cent over October, 1943. A m ong other mining activities, production of Arkansas bauxite is currently running well below peak wartime levels, while output of zinc, manganese, and lead is not as heavy as in 1943. Miscellaneous Manufacturing — Munitions pro duction at district war plants continues at a very high level, but, as has been true since last fall, is running below the peak period. Indications are that production of certain lines in this area will be in creased somewhat in the near future in view of changed schedules for heavy artillery ammunition Manufacturing employment in the important cen ters of the district currently is running below the wartime peak, with the largest decreases, both rela tive and absolute, occurring in St. Louis and Evans ville. It is anticipated that employment in district factories will decrease slow ly throughout the bal ance of the war period, as gains in a few munitions EM PLOYM ENT Page 3 lines probably will not be sufficient to offset de clines in others. There has been no appreciable change in the rat ing of m ajor labor markets in the district in the past month. W ith the possible exception of Louis ville, K entucky and Pine Bluff, Arkansas, general labor shortages are not evident in any district city, although shortages in particular lines are still ap parent and will probably continue, at least until the close of* the European war. R E T A IL T R A D E Dollar sales volum e of the various retailing lines whose statistics are available to this bank moved up contraseasonally in O ctober and was well above the level of a year earlier. Part of the gain over September was due to the concentration of consider able holiday buying in early O ctober to meet the mid-month deadline for mailing overseas gifts. A p parently, however, early holiday gift shopping for the armed forces will not curtail buying volume dur ing the normal period, for sales since m id-October have run as much above a year ago as those in the previous month. This heavy volum e of purchasing reflects maintenance of high consumer income des pite heavy wartime income and excise taxes and the Treasury anti-inflation program. Department store sales in O ctober were 7 per cent above September and 12 per cent above October, 1943. For the first ten months of this year sales at district department stores ran 11 per cent greater than in the comparable period of 1943. Gains over October, 1943, were greatest at Springfield and Louisville stores with most other m ajor cities ap^ proximating the district average. A t Evansville, sales continued to show a slight decline from 1943. A m ong other retail lines, district furniture stores registered sales increases of 17 per cent and 19 per cent, respectively, over a month and a year ago, while men’s furnishings store sales were up 17 per cent and 10 per cent in the same intervals. W om en ’s apparel store sales in St. Louis were off 4 per cent in the month and were slightly below the level of a year earlier. Shoe store volum e was down 2 per cent from September but was 3 per cent greater than October, 1943. A G R IC U L T U R E General Farming Conditions — W arm weather without much rain was very favorable for late ma turing crops and for harvesting operations in O cto ber. Mean temperatures in every section of the dis trict averaged above normal in October, while pre cipitation in many sections was less than half of normal. The long harvest season this year has been particularly helpful in view of the relative shortage Page 4 of agricultural labor, particularly in certain localities. Production of major crops in the district during 1944 will apparently be at a record level, despite an exceptionally wet spring that delayed planting, and midsummer drouth which, if continued, w^ould have sharply reduced district yields. Since early Sep tember the very favorable weather has steadily raised prospective yields of major district crops, and, with most of the crops now harvested, 1944 yields are in general much higher than in 1943. Cash farm income in district states in September totaled $334 million, as compared with $270 million in A ugust and $347 million in September, 1943. For the first nine months of this year cash income of farmers ran 6 per cent above the comparable period in 1943. During the war years the rise in cash farm income in the district has been relatively greater than that in the nation. There has been a slightly greater concentration on crops in the district, as compared with the country as a whole, during the past four years, with the result that district cash income from crops currently represents a greater proportion of total cash income than it did in 1940. Partly as a result of this condition, 1944 cash farm income in the district is likely to show a relatively greater gain than that for the nation. A more potent factor in the rise over last year’s income, however, is the greater than average rise in output in the district this year. In 1943 heavy floods and prolonged drouth curtailed district crop production severely. Cotton— October weather was favorable for cotton picking in the district and further increased pros pective yields. The N ovem ber 1 estimate of the U. S. Department of Agriculture indicated a 1944 dis trict cotton crop of 3,830,000 bales, 193,000 bales more than was forecast on O ctober 1, and 613,000 bales more than was produced in 1943. M ore than half of the prospective national gain in cotton pro duction in the past month was concentrated in the district and about two-thirds of the increase over 1943 is due to greater district production. The 1944 cotton crop in the district is appreciably later than last year, and due to this factor and a reported labor shortage at most gins and com presses, handling of the crop is considerably behind the schedule of former years. Through O ctober 31 total ginnings were slightly larger than in 1943, with those of every major cotton-producing state of the district, except Mississippi, appreciably larger. Relative to total production, however, district gin nings were well behind a year ago. Through O cto ber 70 per cent of the district crop had been ginned this year, in contrast to 82 per cent in 1943. On the whole, the grade of the 1944 crop in the district apparently will be somewhat lower than in 1943. Grade in Missouri and Tennessee is slightly higher than a year earlier, but in Arkansas and Mis sissippi is slightly lower. A verage staple, however, in every state except Missouri is running longer than in 1943. Presumably due to uncertainties regarding the outlook for cotton prices, movement of the crop into the loan and purchase program of the Commodity Credit Corporation has not been as heavy as anti cipated. Through Novem ber 11 loans had been re ported on 779,000 bales of 1944 crop cotton, and in the purchase program reports covering a slightly longer period indicated purchases of some 65,000 bales. In 1943, by m id-Novem ber more than 1,500,000 bales had moved into the loan. Feed Crops and Grains— Upward revision in pros pective corn yield in the district led to a November 1 estimate of the U. S. Department of Agriculture of 380,851,000 bushels, 3,501,000 bushels more than was indicated a month earlier, and 18,779,000bushels more than was produced in 1943. Increased pros pects in Arkansas, Indiana, Kentucky and Tennes see offset slight declines in Mississippi and Missouri in the past month. Soybean prospects improved substantially in October, with much of the gain concentrated in Missouri. The Arkansas rice har vest this year is now expected to total 14,204,000 bushels, as compared with 11,891,000 bushels in 1943. Production estimates for winter wheat, oats and hay in 1944 were unchanged on November 1 from a month earlier, since harvests were virtually complete. The feed situation for the com ing year is much more favorable than last year, with feed grain crop supply practically at last year’s level, and with the number of animal units to be fed sharply below last year. Pastures have held up quite well this fall, with consequent saving of feed supplies for later months. Fruits and Vegetables — A ggregate tonnage of commercial truck crops in the United States for the entire 1944 season is expected to be 7.8 million tons, or 11 per cent more than the former record of 7.0 million tons produced in 1942 and 17 per cent greater than 1943 output. Acreage for harvest in 1944 is 18 per cent greater than in 1943, while average yields are slightly lower. Favorable weather in O ctober lifted prospective yields for district crops of white and sweet potatoes. Indicated production of white potatoes in the dis trict on Novem ber 1 was 59,000 bushels more than on October 1, but the 1944 crop is still 3,966,000 bushels short of last year. Prospective output of sweet potatoes in Eighth District states improved 484.000 bushels in the month to a total only 705,000 bushels short of 1943. Livestock — The number of cattle fed for market during the com ing winter and spring is expected to be little different from the number fed a year earlier. The volume of stocker and feeder cattle shipped into states of the Corn Belt in the four-month period, July through October, 1944, was 1 per cent greater than last year. In district Corn Belt states ship ments were slightly lower in Missouri and Indiana and slightly higher in Illinois. M ovement of cattle into feed lots in N ovember and December will thus determine wdiether feeding operations in terms of units handled this year will be larger or smaller than a year ago. W ith total feed grain supplies about the same as a year earlier, and with supply per animal unit much higher, cattle finishing in the coming season, however, should be somewhat more extensive than in the past year. Feeding of lambs this season is down sharply. On the basis of present indications, the volume of lambs fed this season will be the smallest in ten years, with movement into Corn Belt states in the JulyOctober period 16 per cent below 1943. Tobacco— A ccording to the November 1 estimate of the U. S. Department of Agriculture, output of all types of tobacco in the Eighth District this year will be 321,877,000 pounds, as compared with 262,416.000 pounds in 1943. Favorable weather during October resulted in an increase in prospective yields which lifted production estimates 6,871,000 pounds. The major indicated increase in the past month was concentrated in burley tobacco, although prospects for both Eastern and W estern area dark-fired crops also improved appreciably. Favorable weather in the first part of November made conditions good for the curing of air-cured tobacco, particularly burley. A t that time most of the burley crop had been housed and only a small percentage was damaged by frost which came in late October. The earlier cuttings were sufficiently cured for stripping, but the later cuttings will require the balance of the month to cure properly. Burley to bacco markets are scheduled to open December 11, a week later than originally reported, because buyers cannot move from flue-cured markets as early as expected. In the Eastern and W estern dark-fired districts the bulk of the tobacco was harvested in g ood con dition and has been curing well, although some Page 5 iiouseburn has been reported. Dry weather has pre vailed in these regions and growers hoped for some rainy days to accelerate curing of the later cuttings. One-sucker tobacco was all harvested before frost and is curing rapidly. W eather conditions have been good in the Green River district with leaf above average size and good body. CASH F A R M September 1943 1944 (I n thousands o f dollars) 47,248 67,913 23,054 ___ The m ajor factor affecting banking during the past month was anticipation of the Sixth W ar Loan Drive which opened officially for marketable issues on November 20. The Treasury continued substan tial withdrawals from W ar Loan accounts, while Government spending built up private deposits, es pecially those of business w^hich held them for in vestment in drive securities. A t 24 reporting mem ber banks in this district, U. S. Government deposits on November 15 dropped to $137 million, a net de crease of $41 million in the previous four weeks, while demand deposits adjusted at the same banks rose $44 million to a new peak of $1,089 million. The pre-drive level of Government deposits in June, 1944, was $130 million. The Treasury has announced quotas by states for the Sixth W ar Loan Drive. The follow ing table gives for states partly or wholly contained in this district, quotas for total sales, sales to individuals, and E bond sales. $165,30.7 808,334 477,173 225,737 173,328 449,230, 183,180 641,049 374,298 157,737 129,730 353,459 141,538 2,482,289 1,945,447 N A T IO N A L S H IP M E N T S A T Receipts O ct., 1944 O ct., 1943 Sept., 1944 232,652 211,271 195,218 .229,530 188,105 257,425 2,452 3,641 < 3,266 . 79,933 75,613 87,444 H o g s ......................... H orses and M u le s . S heep......................... 194 ? 1943 168,211 848,977 500,802 254,129 154,808 497,232 207,947 2,632,106 346,790 R E C E IP T S A N D B A N K IN G A N D F IN A N C E 1944 $ $ 35,023 85,591 66,974 21,901 53,643 59,835 23,823 $ 35,533 , . , . 78,072 , .. 61,358 Mississippi. . . . IN C O M E Cum ulative for 9 , 545,381 477,441 543,728 STOCK YARDS Shipments Sept., 1944 O ct., 1944 O ct., 1943 116,694 108,273 104,285 50,040 47,843 82,732 2,446 3,587 3,260 15,183 11,455 12,034 170,,017 202,638 185,177 W H O L E S A L E P R IC E S IN T H E U N IT E D S T A T E S Bureau o f L abor O c t.,’ 44 com p, with Sept., O ct., O ct., Statistics O ct.,’ 43 Sept.,’ 44 1944 1943 (1 9 2 6 = 1 0 0 ) 1944 104.0 122.7 104.2 98.6 A ll C om m od ities. . 104.1 Farm P ro d u cts . . 123.4 , 10.4.2 98.7 + 0.1% + 0.6 -0 + 0 .1 103.0 122.2 105.1 97.3 + 1.1% + 1.0 — 0.9 + 1.4 CO ST OF L IV IN G O ct. 15,’ 44 comip. with O ct. 15, Sept. 15, Sept. 15, Sept. 15,’ 42 1942 Sept. 15,’ 44 1944 1944 Bureau o f L abor Statistics (1935-39=10:0) 117.8 116.6 126.5 125.2 126.4 124.6 U nited S tates......... St. L o u is ........... . -0 - % — 0,5 + + 7.3% 6.9 COST OF FO O D O ct. 1 5 /4 4 com p, with O ct. 15,, Sept. 15, Sept. 15, Sept. 15/42 1942 Sept. 1 5/4 4 1944 1944 Bureau o f Labor Statistics (1935-39=10:0) U . S. (51 citie s). . . St. L o u is ......... . . Little R ock .. L ou isville......... . M em phis......... .. . — — — — + 126.6 126.7 129.2 124.2 129.7 137.0 139.8 137.4 131.7 146.5 136.4 138.0 135.4 131.0 144.9 0.4% 1.3 1.5 0.5 1.1 + 7.7% + 8.9 + 4.8 + 5.5 + 11.7 C O A L P R O D U C T IO N S IX T H W AR LOAN (I n thousands of tons) D R IV E Q U O T A S (I n millions of dollars) State A rk an sas............... ............. $ Total 44 Illin ois................................... 1,034 239 Indiana.................... ............. K en tu ck y___ ____ ............. 104 M ississippi............. ............. 47 M issou ri................. ............. 2 76 T ennessee............... ............. 117 Individuals $ 28 351 120 55 30 118 61 E bonds $ 17 174 68 27 18 63 30 Demand for bank credit in the district in the past month was somewhat greater than in the previous month, particularly for commercial loans. As com pared with a year ago, total loans were also up, with most of the increase in loans to purchase and carry securities. Such loans, however, have been drop ping steadily since the last drive. Total investments in Government securities of weekly reporting banks increased $14 million during the past month. Nearly all the gain was in Treasury bills and certificates. Since the last issue of this Review, The Citizen's Bank of Owensville, Owensville, Missouri and The Citizen’s Bank of W indsor, W indsor, Missouri have becom e members of the Federal Reserve System. Page 6 O c t.,’ 44 S ept.,’44 6,065 2,350 , 5,716 Other dist. states., . 1,751 . 15,882 5,685 2,217 5,597 1,726 15,225 O c t.,’44 com p, with S e p t./4 4 O ct.,’ 43 O c t.,’ 43 6,408 2,380 5,451 1,573 15,812 + + + + + B U IL D IN G P E R M IT S N ew Construction (C ost in thousands) N umber 1944 1943 .. L ittle R o c k . . . . , 19 30 80 , 409 . . 95 254 13 60 76 63 O ct. T o t a ls . . . 633 Sept. T otals. . . . 424 466 204 ( K .W .H . in thous.) Cost 1944 1943 $ 21 76 201 545 326 $ , Little R o c k . . .. . 40 35 82 .< 138 7,992 3,220 17,522 6,795 8,363 97,599 Totals . , . . 345 141,491 *Selected industrial customers. — — + + + 5.4% 1.3 4.9 11.3 0.4 Repairs, etc. N um ber 1944 1943 Cost 1944 1943 238 7 111 15 268 104 242 32 209 182 125 122 33 474 146 $ 53 60 44 70 374 $ 92 28 83 194 76 630 370 1,169 790 C O N S U M P T IO N O F N o. of O ct., Sept., Custom 1944 ■ 1944 ers* K .W .H . K .W .H . 6.7% . 6.0 2.1 1.4 4.3 769 778 900 996 60,1 510 473 465 E L E C T R IC IT Y O ct., O ctober, 1944 1943 com pared with K .W .H . Sept., 1944 O ct., 194, 7,905 3,375 17,668 6,491 7,647 89,926 133,014 t Revised. 10,080f 2,807 17,197 6,457 7,302 95,008f + — — + + + 1% 5 1 5 9 9 — 21% + 15 + 2 + 5 + 15 + 3 138,851f + 6 + 2 V A L U E C O N S T R U C T IO N C O N T R A C T S L E T (I n thousands O c t.,’ 44 com p, with o f dollars) O ct.,*44 Sept.,*44 O c t.,’ 43 S ept.,’44 O c t.,’43 T otal 8th D i s t . . . $ 11,812 _$ 13,004f $ 8,218f S o u rce : F . W . D od g e C orporation, fR evised . — 9% + 44% D E P A R T M E N T S T O R E S stock s N et Sales on H and O ct., 1944 com pared with Sept.,*44 O c t.,*43 10 m o s /4 4 to same p e r io d ’ 43 S tock T urnover O ct. 31,’44 com p, w ith O ct. 31,’ 43 Jan. 1 to O ct. 31, 1944 1943 F t. Smith, A r k .. + 4 % + 16% 3.72 3.20 + 89 — 7 4.08 3.45 L ittle R ock , A rk. + 3 + 8 +21 Q u in cy, 111.......... + 1 —1 — 2 E vansville, I n d .. + 8 4.33 4.39 +16 +22 L ouisville, K y . . . + 11 + 13 -- 9 - 0 3.73 3.47 St. L ou is, M o. . . 4- 7 11 -- 2 5 +25 Springfield, M o .. + 9 4.06 3.75 + **8 12 --1 4 M em phis, T en n .. + 8 — 8 3.69 3.38 -- 9 *A11 other cities. + 8 11 3.88 3.60 --11 8th F . R . D is t.. . + 7 + 2 12 *E1 D orad o, Fayetteville, Pine B lu ff, A r k .; A lton , East St. L ouis, H arrisburg1 M t. V ernon, 111.; V incennes, I n d .; Danville, H opkinsville, , M ayfield, Paducah, K y . ; Chillicothe, M o . ; Jackson, Tenn. T ra d in g d a y s : O ctober, 1944— 2 6 ; Septem ber, 1944— 2 5 ; O ctober, 1943— 26. O utstanding orders o f reporting stores at the end o f O ctober, 1944, were 8 per cent greater than on the corresponding date a year ago. Percentage o f accounts and notes receivable outstanding O ctob er 1, 1944, collected during O ctober, b y cities: Instalm ent E x cl. Instal. Instalm ent E xcl. Instal. A ccou n ts A ccou n ts A ccou n ts A ccoun ts ts + + + + F o rt S m ith........... % L ittle R ock . . 38 L ou isv ille____ 45 M em phis . . . . 58 65 % 61 66 65 80% 74 69 70 Q u in c y ......... 40.% St. L o u is ____47 O ther cities. . 41 8th F .R . D ist. 47 IN D E X E S O F D E P A R T M E N T S T O R E S A L E S A N D S TO C K S 8th Federal R eserve D istrict O ct., Sept., A u g ., O ct., 1944 1944 1944 1943 Sales (daily average), U nadju sted1 ................221 Sales, (daily average), Seasonally ad justed 1 . 215 Stocks, U n a d ju s t e d 2 ............................................... 115 Stocks, Seasonally adjusted2 ............................. 102 iD a ily average 1935-39=100. 2M onthly average 1923-25=100. S P E C IA L T Y ST O R E S N et Sales O ct., 1944 com pared with Sept.,*44 O c t.,*43 10 m o s/4 4 to same period M3 178 207 111 112 Stocks on H and O ct. 31,*44 com p, with O ct. 3 1/4 3 194 188 113 101 Stock Turnover Jan. 1 to O ct. 31, 1944 1943 R E T A IL F U R N IT U R E STO R ES N et Sales Inventories______ Ratio of O ct., 1944 O ct. 31, 1944 Collections com pared with com pared w i t h _________ S ep t./4 4 O c t./4 3 S ep t.3 0 /4 4 O ct.3 1 /4 3 O c t./4 4 O c t./4 3 4 7% 51% +21% -0-% + 12% St. L ouis A rea 1 . . + 8 % 48 53 -0 +21 St. L o u is ......... + 8 +11 27 — 16 32 +36 — 5 L ouisville A rea 2 ., + 3 4 31 27 — 19 — 6 +35 L o u is v ille .. . . , + 3 5 25 27 — 8 +32 + 8 +31 M em p h is............. 29 30 — 22 — 1 +35 + 16 L ittle R o c k ......... * * 31 53 +50 S pringfield ......... . + 1 5 * * * . +31 + 19 34 * 41 +26 +30 Pine B lu ff........... 40 49 — 15 +26 + 5 — 3 E vansville........... 36 — 9 41 — 3 8th D ist.T otals 3. + 19 + 17 * N o t shown separately due to insufficient coverage, but included in E ighth D istrict totals. iln clu d e s St.. L ouis, M issou ri; E ast St. Louis, and A lton, Illinois. 2Iricludes Louisville, K en tu ck y ; N ew A lbany, and Jeffersonville, Indiana. 3l n addition to above cities, includes stores in Henderson, H op kins ville, O w ensboro, K en tu ck y ; Colum bus, Greenwood, Starkville, M issississippi; Cape Girardeau, Hannibal, M issou ri; and Dyersburg, T en- PE R C E N T A G E D IS T R IB U T IO N O F SALES O ct. ,’44 Sept.,’ 44 19% 81 100. O c t./4 3 19% 81 , 100 L O A D S IN T E R C H A N G E D F O R 25 R A I L R O A D S A T ST. L O U IS First nine days ,, „ O c t./4 4 S ep t./4 4 O c t.,’ 43 N o v ./4 4 N o v ./4 3 10 m o s/4 4 1 0 m o s /4 3 1,592,168 1,497,910 159,728 148,479 166,389 47,731 47,862 S o u r c e : Term inal Railroad A ssociation o f St. Louis. D ata furnished b y Bureau o f Census, U . S. D ept, o f Commerce A utom otive Supplies...................... .........+ 6% D rugs and Chem icals...................... 9 4 Electrical Supplies........................... ..... — 6 . . . , — 23 4 ........ + 6 .... + 1 1 2 Plum bing Supplies........................... — T obacco and its P rod u cts.............. M iscellaneous................................... ........ + T otal all lines**.......................................... + * Preliminary. **Includes certain lines not listed above. ..... C O M M E R C IA L F A I L U R E S I N O c t./4 4 N um ber................ 4 Liabilities........... $ 49,0,00 S o u rce : Dun and Bradstreet. Stocks O ct. 31, 1944 com pared with O ct. 31,1943 O ctober, 1944 com pared with S e p t./4 4 O c t./4 3 3 + + + — — — + + + — + + ....1 35% 21 10 14 6 12 4 16 10 21 3 2 —21 +22 + *i + 12 +24 — 2 E IG H T H S e p t./4 4 2 $ 21,000 F. R. D I S T R I C T O c t./4 4 com p, with O c t./4 3 S ept./4 4 O c t./4 3 5 $ 30,000 +100% +133 — 2 0% + 63 C H A N G E S IN P R IN C IP A L A S S E T S A N D L I A B I L I T I E S F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U IS Change from N o v . 15, O ct. 18, N ov. 17, (I n thousands o f dollars) 1944 1944 !943 Industrial advances under Sec. 13b........... $ ......................................................... 8,875 + 875 + 5,025 Other advances and rediscounts................,. U . S. securities................................................... 679,886 + 82,015 + 23 3 ,5 5 9 82,890 + 23 8 ,5 8 4 Total reserves..................................................... 799,780 T otal deposits..................................................... 590,676 F . R. notes in circulation............................. 904,182 — 19,912 + 19,470 + 31,158 + 78,229 + 90,778 + 22 1 ,1 3 3 Industrial commitments under Sec. 1 3 b .. 212 193 113 107 2.67 M en ’s Furnishings + 1 7 % + 1 0 % — 2% + 11% 2.52 6.92 7.05 B oots and Shoes — 2 + 3 + 9 + 22 Percentage o f accounts and notes receivable outstanding O ctober 1, 1944, collected during O c to b e r: M en’s Furnishings.................... 64% B oots and S h oes....... .........50% O ctober, T ra d in g d a y s : O ctober, 1944— 2 6 ; September, 1944— 25 1943— 26. Cash S ales................................................... 2 0 % Credit S ales................................................. 80 T o ta l Sales............................................... 100 W H O L E S A L IN G * Lines o f Commodities N et Sales T otal earning assets...................................... 688,761 + + — 55 5 282 P R IN C IP A L R E S O U R C E A N D L I A B I L I T Y IT E M S O F R E P O R T IN G M E M B E R B A N K S Change from N o v . 15, O ct. 18, N ov. 17, ( I n thousands o f dollars) 1944 1944 1943 T otal loans and investm ents........... $1,736,352 + 30,227 + 1 4 1 ,4 6 0 Commercial, industrial, a gricu ltu ra l_____ * 251,632 + 15,857 — 6,435 Loans to brokers and dealers in securities. 8,045 + 722 + 1,557 Other loans to purchase and carry securitiesi 23,213 3,518 + 13,081 Real estate loa n s................................. 65,965 + 201 + 1,780 Loans to banks.................................... 1,742 2,241 + 1,128 — Other loans.............................................. 79,564 + 2,027 + 3,944 , ' 430,660 + 16,417 + 12,185 Treasury b ills. 62,673 + 12,429 — 39,00.9 337,279 + 2,831 + 73,485 235,410 48 + 86,332 U. S. B on d s..................................................... 541,041 + 1,650 + 24,562 Obligations guaranteed by U . S. G ov t.. 19,974 4,026 — 14,357 10.9,315 + 974 — 1,738 1,305,692 + 13,810 + 12 9 ,2 7 5 122,465 + 6,128 + 3,398 1,088,898 + 44,220 + 182,40,3 Tim e deposits. 269,599 + 5,763 + 54,732 136,557 40,713 — 128,588 602,548 + 47,274 + 76,283 B orrow ings............................................ 8,500 + 1,500 + 4,650 * Includes open market paper. ** Other than interbank and Governm ent deposits, less cash items on hand o r in process o f collection. A bove figures are for 24 m ember banks in St. L ouis, Louisville, M em phis, L ittle R ock and E vansville. Their resources com prise approxim ately 75% o f the resources o f all m ember banks in this district, (I n thousands o f dollars) D E B IT S T O I N D I V ID U A L A C C O U N T S O ctober, September, O ctober, O c t./4 4 com p, with 1944 - 1944 1943 S ept.,’44 O c t./4 3 E l Dorado, A r k ... F ort Smith, A r k .. Helena, A rk .......... Little R ock, A r k .. Pine Bluff, A r k ... . $ :. A lton, 111...................... .. Evansville, In d ........ . Louisville, K y ........... . Ow ensboro, K y ........ Paducah, K y ............. Greenville, Miss. Cape Girardeau, M o. St. Louis, M o .. . Sedalia, M o ......... Springfield, M o ., Jackson, T e n n .. . Memphis, T e n n .. (Completed November 25, 1944) 9,568 6,038 81,626 22,459 11,434 12,687 81,308 > 16,678 96,741 318,848 17,975 5,859 4,971 . • 30,,528 .. 986,444 . 33,073 13,524 342,024 $ 9,582 22,145 4,329 73,426 18,351 11,540 13,642 77,652 16,689 99,742 327,356 16,768 7,916 9,521 4,856 4,784 25,845 968,492 5,560 33,552 11,487 244,204 2,00.7,259 $ 9,053 20,382 6,127 81,253 20„204 9,699 12,328 84,731 15,550 102,560 446,935 14,024 7,405 11,052 5,066 4,232 19,338 956,489 5,510 29,840 12,520 311,573 2,185,871 -0 - % + 5 +39 + 11 +22 — 1 — 7 + 5 -0 — 3 — 3 + 7 + 2 +22 +21 + 4 + 18 + 2 + 5 — 1 + 18 +40 + 6% + 14 — 1 -0 + 11 + 18 + 3 — 4 + 7 — 6 — 29 +28 + 9 + 5 + 16 + 17 +58 + 3 + 6 + 11 + 8 +10 + — 2 7 Page 7 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION N A T IO N A L S U M M A R Y O F C O N D ITIO N S B Y BO A RD O F G O VE R N O RS O F F E D E R A L R ESE RV E SYSTEM Federal Reserve index. for O ctober, 1944. M on th ly figures, latest shown are DEPARTMENT STORE S A LE S AND STOCKS Federal Reserve indexes. are for O ctober, 1944. M onthly figures, latest shown MEMBER BANKS IN LEADING CITIES Dem and deposits (adjusted) exclude U . S. Government and interbank deposits and collection items. Government securities include direct and guaranteed issues. W ednes day figures, latest shown are fo r N ovem ber 15, 1944. MEMBER BANK RESERVES AND RELATED ITEMS W ednesday figures, latest shown are for 1944. Page 8 Novem ber 15, Output and employment at factories and mines showed little change from September to October. Value o f department store trade increased further in October and the early part o f November, while commodity prices were stable. Industrial production — The Board’s seasonally adjusted index o f in dustrial production was 230 per cent o f the 1935-39 average in October as compared with 231 in September. Output o f durable manufactures continued to decline slightly, while production o f nondurable goods and minerals was maintained at the level o f the preceding month. A t steel mills production increased slightly in October but for the month was 7 per cent below the peak o f a year ago. Production o f copper and other nonferrous metals continued to decline, with output o f aluminum and magnesium curtailed more than 50 per cent from the peak rates reached at the end o f last year. In the machinery and transportation equipment indus tries activity declined slightly in October. Lumber production showed little change in October from the September rate which was 10 per cent above the pre-war level. Output o f lumber and also pulpwood has been limited during the past two years because o f the difficulty o f recruiting labor in these in dustries. Activity at cotton textile mills and at shoe factories declined in October, while output o f manufactured food products increased, after allowance for the customary seasonal changes. The rise in food manufacturing was mainly at canneries and was made possible by increased farm production o f fruits and vegetables. Newsprint consumption showed a greater than seasonal increase in October. Output qf chemicals, rubber products, and other non durable goods continued at about the level o f the preceding month. Output of coal and crude petroleum was maintained, while production of iron ore continued to decline seasonally. D istribution — Department store sales increased considerably in October and were 13 per cent larger than last year, which is about the same year-toyear increase that has prevailed in recent months. In the first half o f N o vember sales rose further and exceeded by 8 per cent the exceptionally high level o f a year ago. Railroad freight traffic was maintained at a high level during October and the early part o f November. Bank credit — On the eve o f the opening of the Sixth W ar Loan Drive bank deposits and currency owned by individuals, partnerships, and corpora tions were larger than at any previous time. Such holdings o f deposits and currency have increased in recent months as the Treasury expended funds raised during the Fifth W ar Loan Drive. Adjusted demand deposits o f individuals, partnerships, and corporations at reporting banks in 101 cities increased by around 6 billion dollars between July 12 and November 15; this brought the total outstanding to a level about a billion dollars above that reached before the Fifth W ar Loan Drive. Time deposits increased by about a billion dollars. A t country banks outside the leading cities it is estimated that demand and time deposits are slightly more than three billion dollars larger than they were prior to the Fifth Drive. Currency in circulation has increased by about 2.5 billion since the middle o f June. A s a result o f the deposit expansion, the average level of reserves required by all member banks rose sharply during the inter-drive period and are about a billion dollars greater than at the beginning of the Fifth Drive. Reserve funds to meet the increasing requirements, as well as a currency outflow, were supplied largely through substantial additions to the Government secur ity portfolio o f the Reserve Banks; holding were increased by over 3 billion dollars between July 12 and November 15. Member bank borrowings at the Reserve Banks also increased as they had done prior to the Fifth Drive. Excess reserves, which increased during the war loan drive, declined at a fairly rapid rate immediately following the close o f the drive and then fluctuated generally around a billion dollars. About three-fourths o f these excess reserves are held by country banks. A t reporting banks in 101 cities, bill and certificate holdings declined by around 2^4 billion dollars during the inter-drive period reflecting sales, largely to the Reserve Banks, as member banks adjusted their reserve posi tions. Bond holdings were increased by around 800 million dollars. Loans to brokers and dealers for purchasing or carrying Government securities, whidh had declined in August to a level comparable to that pre vailing prior to the Fifth Drive, fluctuated somewhat over the following period but began to increase early in November. Other loans for purchasing or carrying Government securities continued to decline. Loans for handling other securities, reflecting substantial flotations o f new corporate issues, increased during the late fall. Commercial loans also rose.