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MONGJrHLGJr BU8INE88 FED ERA L Vol. 36, No. 9 REVIEW · R ESE R V E BANK DALLAS, TEXAS o F DALLAS September 1, 1951 SUPPORT THE DEFENSE BOND DRIVE SEPTEMBER 3-0CTOBER 27 • Every American is urged by the Secretary of the Treasury to become a partner in the Defense Bond Drive, which will begin on Labor Day, September 3, and run through October 27. • The principal purposes of the Drive are to maintain and increase the wide distribution of the public debt among as many of the American people as possible, to discourage inflationary spending at a time when infla· tionary pressures arising out of the defense program are strong, and to encourage the continued practice of thrift and savings among the American people. • From the standpoint of self·interest-if from no other -each banker, businessman, industrialist, employer, worker, farmer, and, in fact, every American should give his full support to this Drive . • It is true that the value of the dollar has declined. It is also true that strong inflationary forces still threaten. Everyone should do everything possible to prevent further inflation . Increased saving through the purchase of defense bonds is one very important anti·inflationary step that the American people can take. • As the value of the dollar has declined, criticism of defense bonds as an investment has increased. Objec· tive appraisal of such criticism, however, shows it to be unfounded. • There are those who argue that our Government has been prodigal in its expenditures and suggest that the public register its protest by not buying bonds. But this is not the sound or practical point of attack on excessive government expenditures. The battle against nonessen· tial spending must be carried to Congress, where spending is authorized-not to the Treasury. • It is also sometimes said that those who have purchased savings bonds have been treated unfairly because the dollar today is not worth what it was J 0 years ago. But again, the purchase of savings bonds did not bring about or contribute in any degree to that decline in the value of the dollar . In fact, very large purchases of savings bonds have tended to limit the decline in the dollar's value. • We have all contributed in one way or another to the decline in the value of the dollar . The point of attack on this problem is to reach a determination that we will have no more inflation. That problem rests with each American. • Another criticism is that savings bonds provide no protection against future inflation . Neither do cash holdings, bank deposits, savings accounts, life insurance, or -in fact-any other type of fixed-income investment . One can almost say, categorically, "There is no protection against inflation. " Again, the point of aHack is to do those things that will stop inflation. Increased purchases of savings bonds will help to achieve that objective. • Savings and defense bonds are still the world's safest investment. If bankers, insurance companies, trust managers, and others highly trained and experienced in finance do not believe that this is a true statement, how can we account for the many billions of their dollars that they have invested in Government bonds? • For the average American citizel), defense bonds provide one of the easiest, most certain, safest, and most popular ways to save. The millions of people on pay roll savings and bond·a -month plans prove this statement. • The purchaser of a defense bond does more than merely make an investment, important though that may be. He is helping in a very real way to fight inflation, to aid his country in building its military strength, to maintain economic stability-in fact, he is purchasing a share in the future of America . SAVE THE SAFE WAY BUY U. S. DEFENSE BONDS This publication was digitized and made available by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' Historical Library (FedHistory@dal.frb.org) 120 MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW DEFENSE CONSTRUCTI ON IN THE SOUTHWEST W. JOHNSON, Industrial Economist Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas KEITH After less than a decade, defense construction is again rising to a high level in the Southwest, with new industrial facilities being planned and built at a rate approaching that of 1942 and exceeding that of the 1946 postwar boom. Such defense·stimulaLed additions of plant and equipment can affect significantly the rate of industrial development of an area. Undoubtedly, defense construction is speeding up the rate of industrial growth in the Southwest-it did so during World War II, when many years of growth and industrial development were compressed into a few years, and it is proving to be the same sort of catalyst in the present defense emergency. The rich resources and the labor force of the area are being turned again, at least in substantial part, toward the satisfaction of defense and defense·related reo quirements. The high level of defense construction in prospect in the Southwest during 1951·52 appears unlikely to be interrupted seriously either by the cease·fire negotiations in Korea or by other lulls in the international tension. For one thing, the defense program cannot be cut off abruptly; in addition, the basic differences between the forces of communism and the democratic nations of the world remain as compelling reasons for a continued high levei of defense activity. Even though a lessening of international tensions should have a moderating effect upon the thinking of the American people, it probably would only tend to slow down the rate of ex· pansion of defense production. A moderate downward adjustment in the level of over-all business activity could also occur, but no great decline would be likely before further increases in defense spending-based on plans and commitments already made--would turn the trend at least moderately upward again_ The current rapid economic growth in the Southwest, while paced by the Nation's defense program, reflects the basic economic advantages of the area; indeed, were it not for these advantages, much of the current defense construction and productive expansion would not have occurred in this section of the United States. In other words, aILhough the importance of the defense program should not be minimized, it is not solely responsible for the area's development. The Southwest is favored by expansive tendencies in most of the forces making for industrial growth. The pro· duction of industrial raw materials, paced by the continuing discovery of oil and gas resources, has been the basis for growth in the oil refining and petrochemical industries. The power potential of large reserves of natural gas has drawn, and will continue to draw, nonferrous metal and other industries to the Southwest; more recently the value of the area's huge store of lignite as a source of fuel and power has attracted the favorable attention of industry. Proximity to most of the Nation's supply of sulphur- a basic ingredient essential to the chemical industry-and potash and to large supplies of pulpwood, grain sorghums for industrial uses, minerals, and other raw materials has shaped the character and growth of southwestern industry_ It is upon this firm and adequate resource base that the many types of manuf acturing and industrial enterprises have developed in the area through the years, including petroleum and petrochemicals, natural gasoline, synthetic rubber, carbon black, and various other chemicals. But these are industries that are essential to defense; consequently, war and defense preparation have stimulated and favored their growth. An expanding and increasingly skilled lahor force has aided manufacturing generally and has been important in attracting new industries and enterprises. The southwestern labor force, especially the industrial labor supply, tends to increase relatively more rapidly than is characteristic of the Nation_ Population in the area is increasing faster than in older sections of the country; the rural areas of the South· west continue to have a relatively high birth rate, while at the same time the need for farm labor declines. For instance, between 1940 and 1950 farm employment in the five states lying wholly or partly within the Eleventh Federal Reserve District declined by 187,000 workers-a very suhstantial industrial labor potential. Continued mechanization and tech· nological improvements in agriculture indicate the possibility of additional migration to cities and to industrial employment. Defense construction and production in this area do not face the labor problems that are common to older and more industrialized parts of the country. The increases in population and income and the rise of production in nearly all industries in the Southwest have made the area a richer market for both consumer goods and capital goods. For some industries this market is, in itself, sufficient to support an increasing output; while for others the combination of the southwestern market and economical access to national and world markets is proving very stimu· lative. Other factors which are playing a significant part in the industrial development of the Southwest and which are attractive from the standpoint of defense production include water transportation and the construction and improvement of the Gulf ports, which have brought the Nation and the world within the reach of economical transportation to thc Southwest; the mild climate of the area and its effect upon the type of facility construction; the open spaces and relative availability of plant sites; the self-generative factors that are inherent in a dynamic industrial development; and the trend toward industrial decentralization that has been stimulated by the threat of war and foreign attack on our industrial centers. ~ MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW Defense construction has been stimulated greatly by gov· ernment expenditures and aids. Accelerated tax amortization granted through cerLiflCates of necessity is perhaps the most important single program for encouraging industrial plant expansion. As during World War II, bu siness concerns grant. ed certificates of necessity arc permilled to write off in a 5·year period a percentage ranging up to 100 percent of thc cost of the new capital equipment. The program got under way in October 1950, and by August 10, 1951, certi ficates of necessity had been granted in the Nation for facilities costing $8,883,000,000, with accelerated tax amortization allowed on about two·thirds of this amount. The eventual total of such facility expansion has been estimated at between $10,000,000,000 and 812,000,000,000. In the five southwest. ern states-Arizona, Loui siana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas- the total as of Au gust 10 was approximately $1,193,000.000, of which $926,000,000 was in Texas. CERTIFICATES OF NECESSITY APPROVED OCTOBER 3D, 1950-AUGUST 10, 1951 121 of these industries are expanding relaLively rapidly in the Southwest, with the area receiving nearly half of the national total of certi ficates for petroleum refineries, nearly a third of those for chemical plants, and about two-thirds of those for nonferrous metals plants. As a result, the area has reo ceived a relatively large share of the certificates issued to date. In the five southwestern states, data by industry are avail· able for 80 percent of all certificates approved. Of this amount, aluminum plants account for about a third; petroleum refineries, about a fourth; and chemical plants, about a fifth. Texas has 14 percent of the national total amount for which specification by states is available, rank· ing second only to Pennsylvania in this respect; another southwestern state, Louisiana, ranks tenth. The five south· western states have 18 percent of the total specified by states. These shares in the national total are about 172 percent higher in Texas and about 92 percent higher in the five states than would be expected purely on the basis of population. Ten leading States, All Other States, and United Stotes (Amounts in millions of dO<llars ) CERTIFICATES OF NECESSITY APPROVED, RelATED TO POPULATION Approximate Area amounl 1 OCTOBER 30, 1950·AUOUST 10, 1951 Percent of U. S. total Five Southwestern States and United States TEN LEADING STATES 1 Pennsylvania . ••• . •. . ...•. .. .•..•.•..••..•••.... 16.4 13.9 California • . •• . •• ••..•.• •• .....••......•• ••• ••• Illinois ••....•...••.. • . ••••. . .•••.••...••.••••• Indiano •..••....•• ••.•••••• . .••.......•.• . •••• louisiana •••...•••••• .. •••.•.•. . •••• . ........ .. $1,093 926 627 513 372 293 291 263 258 201 Totol........... ........ ....... ... ........ All OTHER STATES .•............. . ............ ... . ... UNITED STATES................................ ..... . $4,837 $1,819 $6,656 72.7 27.3 100.0 2 lekos ••••••••••.•.•.••...•...••...• ... .••..•. 3 Ohio ••••••••...•• . ' •.•.. .. •••• .. ..• ....• •...• " Michigan •••.••.. .• ..••.•••...•••.. .. ••••.••••• 5 Connedicut • •••• _•.• ••••• .. •.••••..• • •••••••••• 6 New york •••••...•• . ••••••. . ••••. . .•.••••••••• 7 8 9 10 9.' 77 ... 5.6 4.4 4.0 3.9 3.0 I EIU:ludes urtiAcates which do not specify location by state. SOURCEI O.f.nse Production Administration. CER1.tFICATES OF NECESSITY APPROVED, BY INDUSTRY,OCTOBER 30,1950. AUGUST 10,1951 f l .... E SOUTMWESTERN STATES· SOURCE , Oel,,,,, P'odllclton Ad~lnl'I,al l on . .. Ari IOf'o, LC'l i.iorHI,N.w Mt. l co,Oklo/l.c~D,ond Tno, Among the industries reCelVtng certificates of necessity, the steel industry accounts for nearly a third of the national total; the chemical industry, nearly a tenth; the petroleum industry, 7 percent; and the aluminum and other nonferrous metals producing and fabricating industries, 6 percent. All Area Approximate amount t Population 1950 Amount Percent of per capito U. S. per capita 31,300,000 Arizona •• ..••.••.••••• $ louiuana ••••••••••••.• 201,000.000 3,300,000 New Mexico ••• ••• • •••• 31,400,000 Oklahomo •••••.•••.•.• 926,000,000 Texas ..•••••.•.••...• 749,587 2,683,516 681,187 2.233,351 7,711,194 $ 41 .75 74.90 4.8-4 14.05 120.08 95 170 11 32 272 Tolal ••....•.••.•••• $1,193,000,000 United States ••••••••.• $6,656,000,000 14,058,835 150,697,361 $ 84.85 $ -44.16 192 100 I Excludes ccrliAeale. which do not specify location by state. SOURCES: Defense Production Administration. Unit.d State. 8ureau of the Census. As a result of accelerated amortization and other phases of the defense program, both the Southwest and the Nation are enjoy in g a large increase in the construction of indus· trial facilities. The expenditures on new plant and equipment by American business are expected to rise to a new peak in ]951 at about $24,000,000,000, or nearly 30 percent more than in 1950, as well as 25 percent above the 1948 record . Manufacturing will account for about half of the 1951 total and will exceed the 1948 record by about 45 percent. In Texas the value of construction contracts awarded for manufacturing buildings rose sharply during the first 7 months of 1951, attaining a rate on an annual basis of ap· proximately $163,000,000. This is 154 percent above the previous ycar and only a third less than the volume during the wartime pcak year 1942 and far exceeds that of any other year, including 1946·47, the postwar boom years for such construction, Even when allowance is made for the rise of construction costs for manufacturing buildings to more than double prewar, the 1951 volume stands out as the second highest ever allained in the State and a fourth higher than the previous postwar peak of 1946. These construction con· tract figures cover only manufacturing buildings, but new machinery and equipment for these buildings may cost about as much as the buildings themselves, so that the total volume of plant and equipment expenditures in the State during 1951 may rise to roughly $325,000,000. A higher total is possible, MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 122 since certificates of necessity approved in Texas already exceed 5900,000,000, but it is probable that many of these certificates and the resulting construction of new plants will be carried over into 1952. The large average size of the 126 new Texas facilities covered by certificates of necessity as of mid-July ranks the State first in this respect among the 10 states having the larger dollar amounts of applications approved. The Texas average is $6,400,000 per certi ficate, compared with a national average of $2,800,000 for the 2,190 facilities for which location is specifIed by state. However, several states receivin g relatively few certificates, chiefly for large mining or metals projects, had somewhat higher average amounts than Texas_ The high average cost of plants in Texas rellects the high The current defense construction program, to the extent that it follows the pattern shown by certificates of necessity, will contribute to the relatively more rapid industrialization of the Southwest than the Nation. The five southwestern states have about 3_5 percent of the ation's production workers in manufacturing, with Texas having about 2 perce nt. But these five states have received certificates of necessity in amount about 4_5 times, and in Texas about 6.4 times, as great as would be expected on the basis of the numbers of production wor!:ers_ Arizona has received about 5_3 times the certificates of necessity to be expected on the basis of past manufacturing employment; Louisiana, about 1.9 times; Oklahoma, about 1.3 times; and New Mexico, about 1.0 times. As during the period of World War II and the earl y postwa r period, the Southwest continues the process of CERTIFICATES OF NECESSITY APPROVED OCTOBER 30,1950 - AUGUST 10,1951 ELEVENTH FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT _ OVER ~ 100,000:000 . . $ 25,000,000 _ ~ 1,000,000 - D UNDER * t 100,000,000 $25,000,000 1,000,000 SOURCE: Defense Production Admin istration. proportion of petroleum, chemi cal, aluminum, and other metals facilities. In Louisiana, which also received certificates for large petroleum, chemical, and aluminum projects, the average size was $4,400,000, or appreciably more than in the Nation. In Arizona, New Mexico, and Oklahoma, the projects averaged smaller than in the Nation; but for all five southwestern states, the average cost of 196 new plants was $5,000,000. catching up with the Nation in manufacturing capacity and output. Within the Southwest, and more particularly in the Eleventh Federal Resen'e District, certain counties are receiving a relatively large proportion of the new f aciJities. Harris County, Texas, which ranks fifth among the Nation's metropolitan areas with respect to certificates received, has the MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW largest southwestern total reported, about 5l90,000,000, followed by such other Gulf Coast counties as Brazoria, Calhoun, Nueces, Jefferson, and Galveston, and Milam County in the centra l part of Texas_ Petroleum refineries, chemical plants, and metals plants account for a large part of the new facilities on the Gulf Coast. The remaining counties with important new facilities are more scattered but reflect chiefly the availability of oil and gas for refineries and chemical plants, copper ore and iron ore for smelters and mills, and pulpwood for paper mills. This concentration of new faci lities in ce rtain counties reflects, in part, a tendency to locate in or near the industrial centers of the area, although a considerable proportion of the new facilities are to he located in smaller communities or even in what has been heretofore open country_ Also reflected are such locational advantages as availability of labor, economical water transportation, the presence of related industries or plants, climate, sites for new plants, and other factors. The approximate costs of some of the larger plants in this District for which certificates of necessity have been approved include the following: Aluminum plants-Corpus Christi, Texas.. ____________________ $ 80,000,000 Port Lavaca, Tcxas.. ______________________ __ 34,000,000 Rockdale, Texas __________________ __________ __ 103,000,000 Chemical plantsHouston, Texas ______________________________ __ Houston, Texas ______________________________ __ Nederland, Texas __________________________ __ Sterlington, Louisiana __________________ __ 44,000,000 10,400,000 11,140,000 20,458,000 Copper smelterBishee, Arizona ________ ____ _____________ .______ 12,401,000 Petroleum refineriesBorger, Texas .. _ ___ .... __ .... __________ .___ ... . EI Paso, Texas_ ____________ .. ____________ ... __ .. Houston, Texas ..__ .________ ._________ .___ .. __ . Port Arthur, Texas ________ .______ ._____ ... __ Port Arthur, Texas _____ .__ ..... ___ ._____ .__ _ San Antonio, Texas_________ .. ________ .____ ._ Smith's Bluff, Texas_________ .. _____________ ._ 15,416,000 10,264.,000 27,000,000 15,427,000 18,485,000 11,925,000 10,750,000 Power plantFreeport, Texas _ _____ .__ .__ .. ______________ ._ .. 11,500,000 Steel millsLone Star, Texas ____________ _____________ __ __ _ 73,000,000 Houston, Texas _______________________________ _ 75,000,000 A 60-day moratorium on grants of rapid amortization through certificates of necessity was announced by the Defense Production Administration in early Au gust. Only the most urgent projects are now being approved, including those needed to turn out finished military goods, expand raw material output, or supplement vital projects already under way. In addition, projects using relatively small amounts of steel, copper, and aluminum may be approved, since one reason for the moratorium is the need to hold down the use 123 of critical materials and achieve a reasonable balance hetween plant construction and materials supplies. The moratorium will not intcrfere with projects already granted certificates of necessi ty and, if anything, may aid them somewhat by easing the materials situation. Contributing to the conservation of materials during substantially the same period of time, National Production Authority Order M-4.A imposes a moratorium on the starting of most large new construction projects between August 3 and October 1. This order wiII delay many projects for which sufficient steel and copper material s had not been assembled. The large number of defense plant projects under way in the Southwest should assure a continued high level of new plant construction in the area during the moratorium and afterwards, when allotments of critical materials will be available for such construction. The second largest source of federal aid for facility expansion is the Department of Defense program of military contracts for a idin g production and procurement through the expansion of both private and government facilities. According to estimates, expansion under this program is expected to reach about 56,000,000,000 in the Nation- mostly for machine tools, jigs and fixtures, and other items needed to retool and re-equip present plants, hut with an appreciable amount for new structures. The Southwest is receiving relatively less stimulus from this program than from the accelerated amortization program, since the area's expansion represents chiefly new plants rather than added equipment for existing plants. Of relatively greater significance to the Southwest is the program for the encouragement of mineral and other raw material output, under which, in the Nation, 51,426,000,000 has already been spent or committed. While the geographical distribution of this amount is not available, it is reasonable to assume that the Southwest, with its rich and varied mineral resources, should share favorably in these expenditures_ Besides accelerated tax amortization and direct aids, there are several lending programs wbich assist defense facilities expansion. Guaranteed loans to industry in the Nation totaled S655,000,000 by July 16, 1951, with direct DPA and RFC loans totaling an additional $213,000,000. In most cases, the projects on which loans are made also receive accelerated tax amortization benefits. The Southweit is sharing in both guaranteed and direct loans and has received over one-third of the national total of the latter. In terms of present and prospective contributions to industrial expansion in the Nation, a total of about $10,000,000,000 of facilities has been planned or encouraged, either through commitments for direct construction or through certificates of necessity. Of this total, the Southwest has received at least Sl,200,000,000 and perhaps as much as $1,500,000,000. It is estimated that in the Nation perhaps $8,000,000,000 more may be expected in the future, making a prospective total of about $18,000,000,000. Military and naval construction in the Southwest also is expanding rapidl y_ The 1951 total for such construction will amount to several times the 1950 figure_ Activity is increasing at many of th e mili tary installations within the area, and $250,000,000 in specific military construction projects in the Southwestern Division of the Corps of Army Engineers were authorized and planned during the fiscal year ended June 30, MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 124 1951. A military and naval construction bill now before Con. gress includes appropriations for the fiscal year 1952 amount· ing to $578,000,000 for the five southwestern states. The $355,000,000 for Texas ranks the State second only to Cali· fornia in the amount of these proposed expenditures. ELEVENTH DISTRICT Texas Dallas· Fort Worth ................................$ 30,059,000 Other north Texas (Mineral Wells, Sherman, Texarkana, and Wichita Falls) ................................................ 48,479,000 South Texas (Beeville, Harlingen, Houston , Kingsville, Laredo, and Victoria ) .......................................... 44,018,000 EI Paso ................................................ 29,593,000 Other west Texas (Amari llo, Big Spring, Del Rio, and Lubbock)...... 31,615,000 Northcentral Texas (Brownwood, Bry· an, Killeen, and Waco) .................... 40,185,000 San Antonio ........................................ 108,864,000 Other southcentral Texas (Austin, Bastrop, and San Marcos) .............. 22,453,000 Total, Texas .......................... $355,266,000 Other states Nortbern Louisiana (Shreveport) ...... Southern New Mexico (Alamogordo, Clovis, Roswell, and White Sands) Southern Arizona (Fort Huachuca and Tucson) .................................... 18,331,000 39,166,000 That the defense program has had a significant impact upon the economy of the Southwest is indicated by numerous business indexes, most of which have recently been at or near record levels. The income of this District during the first half of 1951 is estimated at about ·15 percent higher than during the first half of 1950. Bank debits in 24 cities in this District were up 10 percent from a year .before. Non· farm employment in Texas in June was 7 percent above a year earlier, with manufacturing employment increasing 15 percent. Crude oil production in the District in June was up 20 percent, while construction contract awards in the Dis· trict durin g the first half of 1951 were up 53 percent from the like period of 1950. Activity in Texas cotton textile mills during the first 6 months of 1951 was 19 percent higher than durin g the corresponding months of the previous season, while cement production was up 7 percent. The output of synthetic rubber, magnesium, and carbon black increased substantially. While only part of these gains directly reflect defense expenditures, a considerable stimulus has resulted indirectly from the expansive effects of the defense program upon general business activity. 19,704,000 Total, Eleventh District........$432,467,000 OUTSIDE ELEVENTH DISTRICT Southern Loui si ana (Alexandria, Baton Rou ge, Camp Polk, Lake Charles, and New Orleans ) .............. Northern New Mexico (Albuquerque and Gallup) .................................... Northern and central Arizona (Chan· dler, Navajo, Phoenix, and Yuma) Oklahoma (Altus, Ardmore, Enid, Lawton, McAlester, Muskogee, and Oklahoma City) .............................. $87,000,000. However, such figures appteciably understate the southwestern total as they do not include small contracts and subcontracts, both of which are especially important in this area. Manufacturers located in at least 20 Texas cities, and probably many more, have received such contracts, which provide for the production of aircraft and aircraft parts, barges and boats, trailers, tractors, clothing, bedding, safelY belts, sugar and rice and other food products, aviation gasoline, fuel oil and other petroleum products, and nu· merous other items. 22,380,000 12,535,000 11,171,000 99,666,000 Total, outside Eleventh District ..............................$145,752,000 TOTAL, FIVE SOUTHWESTERN STATES ...................................... $578,219,000 Military prime con tracts reported during the first II months of the defense program, July 1950·May 1951, amounted to $493,000,000 in Texas and $757,000,000 in the five southwestern states. Texas had 2.4 percent, and the five states, 3.6 percent, of the national total. These figures, though relatively small, are in line with the present manufacturing capacity of the area. Texas ranks twelfth among the states but is second to California in petroleum contracts, with The outlook for defense plant and military and naval con· struction in the Southwest is clearly favorable, with the prospect that regardless of changes in international tensions such construction will continue at a high level well into 1952. However, as the emphasis shifts from plants producing basic industrial materials to plants producing finished or semi. finished products, the Southwest may receive a somewhat smaller share of the national total of new industrial facili· ties. Nevertheless, the increasing advantages of ·manufactur· ing such finished defense goods as aircraft, boats, bedding, and uniforms within the area will act as stimulating factors ill both defense production and defense plant construction. . Whether or not the defense construction boom in the Southwest eventually equals or exceeds that of 1941·43 de· pends largely upon the duration and magnitude of interna· tional tensions. In any case, the construction of new indus· trial facilities in large numbers is again making an important contribution to the economic development of the area, per· mitting an accelerated realization of the economic possibili. ties of the Southwest based on its wealth of resources, grow. ing markets, increasing and more skilled labor force, and other advantages. Both the construction of these new plants and the large expenditures for military procurement and military installations are appreciably stimulating the income, employment, production, and general economic growth of tbe area. Thus, the defense program is teaming up with the basic economic advantages of the area to induce another period of substantial expansion in the southwestern economy. ~ MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 125 REVIEW OF BUSINESS, INDUSTRIAL, AGRICULTURAL, AND FINANCIAL CONDITIONS Consumer buying in the Eleventh Federal Reserve District was stimulated moderatel y in July and early August by inventory clearance sales and spccial promotions_ Department store sales showed a less-than-seasonal decline from June, although they fell sharply below the extremely hi gh level of a year ago, when war-scare buying was at its peak_ Department store stocks registered a further small decline for the third consecutive month but on July 31 were still 30 percent higher than a year earlier_ Sales at district department stores, after allowance for normal seasonal variation, have shown a slightly rising trend since April. This trend undoubtedly reRects the gradual increase in consumer incomes as employment in defense and related industries has continued to rise. Moreover, price reductions and special promotions have been important in bolstering sales. Nevertheless, the resistance of the consumer to WHOLESALE TRADE STATISTICS Eleventh Federal Reserve District {Percentage change} Nonfarm employment in Texas continued to rise under the impetus of expanded activity in defense and related industries_ Crude oil production and refining activity in the District reached new record highs in August, and further increases are indicatcd for September. While the continued upward trend in crude and product stocks normally would call for a curtailment of production, a high level of stocks is now desirable in view of the unsettled Iranian situation_ Construction contract awards in Iuly continued in heavy volume, but the total value of awards was only slightly higher than either the previous month or a year earlier, in contrast with the large year-to-year gains prevailing in the earlier months of this year. Public housing and military projects wer~ important factors buoyin g construetioll awards. Agricultural prospects in the District were lowered substantiall y during July and August by hot, dry weather which caused a deterioration in most crops, as well as in pastures and ranges. While the cotton crop is expected to be considerably larger than the small 1950 crop, production of practi call y every other major crop of the District will show a decline from last year. Farm prices have continued to decline and are now about 15 percent below the peak level of last April. Loan s at weekly reporting member banks showed a further moderate decline during the 5 weeks ended August 15, due largely to a reduction in loans to trade and some types of manufacturing establishments. On the other hand, investments, as well as deposits, rose noticeably. Department store sales in the Eleventh Federal Reserve District made a very creditable showing in Iuly and early August, as clearance sales and special promotions spurred consumer buying. The 8-percent decline in sales from June to July was somewhat less than usually occurs at that time of year. :Moreover, althongh July sales were 20 percent below the extremely high war-scare innated volume of July a year ago, they were substantially higher than in any other July on record, being 10 percent higher than in July 1949 and 3 percent higher than in July 1948_ The district sales picture conformed generally to that of the Nation. Cumulative sales at district department stores for the firsl 7 months of this year were about 4. percent higher than the corresponding period last year. NET SALESp STOCKS'p July 1951 hom July 1951 from July 1950 Industrial supplies .•... ...... Machinery equipment and supplies eKeepl electrical ... . . Metals . ........ ........... Tobacco products .... . ... .. . 1951 1 - 19 12 6 -12 24 1 5 - 6 1 2 16 42 - 34 37 3 3 21 Hardware .. ........ .. .. ... July 1950 - 2 -36 Grocery (voh.lnfe ry-group and furl-line wholesalers not sponsoring groups)...... 7 mo. 1951 compo with 7 mo. 1950 - Automotive supplies ......... Drugs and sundries ..• ....... Ory goods •..•. . ........... June 1951 -48 8 -29 line of trade - 7 -13 9 3 13 1 32 Wines and liquon ....... ... Wiring supplies, construction materials distributors .... . . J"". -IS 1 18 37 35 , -I I 7 25 13 2 2 1 -20 8 56 1 -10 - 3 Stocks at end of month. p-Preliminary. i Indicates change of less than one-half af I percent. I SOURCE: United Stales Bureau of Census. RETAIL TRADE STATISTICS (Percentage change!) NET SALES STOCKS' Juty 1951 from line of trade July by area 1950 DEPARTMENT STORES Total Eleventh Distrid .•...• , •..• • .• Corpus Christi ........... . , .... •.• Dallas .........•.•...........•.• EI Paro •.. , .. .. , ..... , ..•.... , .. Fort Worth., .......•..•.•....••. Houston ••..........•....•..•... • Son Antonio ..•.•....... , ..•• • •. . Shreveport, la .•.............. •. .• Other cities . ••... • , .•. . ••• •. •• ••• -20 -26 -22 -18 -23 -11 -22 -17 -26 FURNITURE STORES Total Eleventn Oislrid •..........•.. Au~tin ....• • .................••. Dallas, ....... • ....•....•....•.• Houston .................•....•.• Port Arthur . • .......•....•....... Son Antonio •.• ... . .........••. . • Sllreveport. La ... ...... .. ...... .• . Widlita Falls ..•• ................. -29 -43 -36 -33 -2 5 -13 -10 -27 HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCE STORES Total El eventn District ...... , ....... Dallas . . ... , •...... ,. , .. " ... , . . -5-1 -48 June 1951 JlIIy 1951 from 7 mo. 1951 camp. with 7 mo. 1950 - 8 -20 - 6 -21 - 9 - 2 - 10 July 1950 June 1951 I 30 21 29 - 1 2 15 25 43 31 - 5 4 3 3 2 - - 11 -10 I 3 2 I I # 13 4 - 21 11 - 59 33 25 -16 23 3 3 5 9 3 -21 17 33 - , - 5 7 1 14 1 Stocks at end of month. I Indicates change of less Inon one·ha lf of I perc:ent. INDEXES OF DEPARTMENT STORE SALES AND STOCKS 11935-39 ~ 100) ADJUSTED l UNADJUSTED July June Moy Area 1951 1951 1951 SALES-Daily average Eleventh District ...• ... , , ... Dallas, ... .. , ....... " ... . HollSton .. , ..... , ...... ... • 339 288 415 352 291 409 393 351 441 429 367 503 STOCKS-End of month Eleventh District ..... . ...... 454 445 486 351 I Adiusted for seasonal variation. July Juno Moy July 1950 1951 1951 1951 1950 409 354 470 405 374 459 537 510 621 July 423 400 513 483 473 486 374 126 MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW high prices continues. The tendency of the consumer to spend a smaller proportion of his income and save a larger proportion, which developed soon after the buying spree in the early weeks of this year, has shown no indication of changing during recent months. Merchants' efT orts to reduce inventories continued during July, with department store stocks down 1 percent to mark the third successive monthly decline. At the end of tbe month, however, stocks were 30 percent higber than on the corresponding date of the previous year. Although the ordering of fall and Quistmas merchandise raised orders outstanding 24 percent during the month, merchants' buying policies remained conservative and orders outstanding on July 31 were 34 percent below a year earlier. The sales performance of the individual departments in July showed a varied pattern. Sales of women's and misses' dresses were 17 percent higher than a year earlier and men's clothing sales were 4 percent higher, with earlier-than-usual summer clearances boosting the sales of both departments. On the other hand, sales of women's accessories were down 17 percent from a year ago, when scare buying of nylon stockings pushed sales of this department to a very hi gh level. Women's and misses' coat and suit sales also were sharply below July a year ago. Consumer durable goods departments, which had experienced the largest increases during the post-Korean scare buying, showed some of the sharpest declines in July from a year earlier. Major appliance sales were down 71 percent; domestic floor coverings, down 24 percent; television and radio, down 35 percent; and furniture, down 16 pcrcent. On the other hand, furniture sales were much higher than in either July 194-8 or July 1949 and were the highest for any month this year since January. Although casb and charge account sales declined from June to July, instalment sales showed a marked increase, to reverse - at least temporarily - the almost uninterrupted downward trend of the previous 6 months. Moreover, instalment sales in July comprised 10 percent of total department store sales, which is the highest percentage they have constituted since January. Meanwhile, charge account sales were only 58 percent of total sales, the smallest proportion in the past 10 months_The proportion of cash sales has shown little change in recent months, and in July, was 32 percent of total sales. Both charge account and instalment account receivables declined noticeably in July, with charge account receivables at the end of the month 5 percent higher than a year earlier but instalmen t account receivables 22 percent lower than on the same date last year. In accordance with provisions of the Defense Production Act of 1951, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System liberalized instalment credit controls, efTective July 31. While it is too early to judge the effect of the easing in instalment credit terms, preliminary reports indicate that this action thus far has bad no substantial influence. Credit controls undoubtedly have been one factor holding down instalment sales, but other factors, such as a reaction to the advance buyin g following the initiation of Korean hostilities, the elimination of deferrcd demand, and a change in COIIsumer buying psychology, have been perhaps equally or morc important. Sales at district furniture stores, bolstered by widespread markdowns and special promotions, showed a l.percent contraseasonal increase from June to July_ Cash sales were up 11 percent, but credit salcs declined slightly. July sales, however, were 29 percent lower than a year ago, when war-scare buying was strong. Accounts receivable outstanding regis· tered a further small decline and at the end of July were 11 percent lower than a year earlier. Moreover, the downward adjustment in furniture store inventories continued for the third consecutive month, with end-of-month stocks down 3 percent from a month previous. However, inventories were still 33 percent higher than a year ago. Districl crops and grazing lands suffered substantial ,Ieterioration during August under the comhined effects of drought and extremely high temperatures. While beneficial rains were received in some areas in recent weeks, earlier expeclations of record crop production this year seem to have faded away, as reports from many parts of the District indicate that harvests of mature crops are falling markedly under June and July forecasts. Crops most seriously affected by the August moisture shortage and heat include cotton, corn, grain sorghums, peanuts, hay, sweet potatoes, and commercial vegetables. Prospects for yields per acre were average or better for most crops as late as August 1 but are now expected to be below average, as crops in many sections are too far advanced to bc benefiled greatly should rains come. The United States colton crop was estimated by the De· partment of Agriculture on August 1 at 17,266,000 bales, or 72 perccnt above last year's harvest. Production in the five NORTHERN ,HIGH PLAINS l-N CROP REPORTING DISTRICTS OF TEXAS MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW states lying wholly or partly within the Eleventh District, forccast on August 1 at 7,675,000 hales, will fall considerably below August estimates. This is particularly true of Texas, where profluction is almost certain to be under the forecast of 5,000,000 bales. Virtually all nonirrigated cotton in the State has been affected by the hot, dry weather. Fruiting and development were checked, and small bolls opened rapidly and prematurely over a wide area in southern, cenIral, and northern counties of the State. On the other hand, i rri galed cotton in the District developed and fruited satisfactorily during August, although bollworms were reported in most irrigated areas. COTTON PRODUCTION Texas Crop Reporting Districts tin thousands of boles-SOO lb. gron wt.) 1951 Crop reporting district '·N 1949 1950 Indicated August 1 1951 as percent of 1949 1950 Southern Texc;u Proirie, •• Cocutol Prgiries ••.•...• South Texos Plainl •.•••• 259 1,571 1,119 61 1,059 350 190 88 505 212 626 89 722 548 16 557 121 143 48 230 121 351 325 1,200 840 65 850 225 245 45 280 210 715 125 76 75 107 80 64 129 51 55 99 114 365 166 153 406 153 186 171 94 122 174 204 Stal ••••. ••• ••••••. • 6,040 2,946 5,000 83 170 Northern High Plains .••• 1·S Southern High P1oins • •••• 2 Red Bed Plains •••••.••• We,tem Cross Timbers ••. 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Slack and Grand Prairies. EostTexasTimbered Plain' Trans·Pecos •••.• . • ' •• ' • Edwards PlateQu ••••••• SOURCE: United States Department of Agriculture. Corn production in the District was cut sharply, as the .J uly and August drought was particularly injurious to lateplanted acreage. Production in the 5-state area may fall short of the 91,465,000 bushels forecast a month ago. The August production estimate for Texas was lowered 6,000,000 bushels from the July estimate, and the forecast of 44,612,000 bushels probably will not be realized. Corn harvest was virtually completed in southern counties of the District during August and is well along in other parts of the area. 127 85,000,000 bushels, down 43 percent due to smaller acreage and reduced yields in droughty producing areas in the south· ern part of the State. Showers during August improved sorghum grain prospects in local areas on the High Plains just as the crop was beginning to head, but a general rain is still needed. Production estimates for other major field crops in the District are presentcd in an accompanying table, which shows smaller crops of rice, peanuts, wheat, oats, flaxseed, barley, hay, and potatoes harvested or in prospect this year. Droughty conditions and extremely cold weather caused heavy losses of winter grains; smaller acreages and unfavorable weather curtailed production of flaxseed and potatoes. Production of commercial vegetables in the District this year will fall well below the output of 1950. Droughty conditions in many of the truck crop producing areas accounted for the dcclinc, causing both smaller acreages and lower yields. Seedbed planting and preparation for winter vege· table planting in the Lower Valley continued inactive through August because of the limited supply of water for irrigation_ Range and pasture feed deteriorated rapidly over most of the District during July and August and is in the poorest condition for this season since the severe drought of 1934. The deterioration in range and pasture feed is reflected in the condition of livestock, which are shrinking in many areas. Cattle are holding up fairly well in some of the more favored areas, but in other sections cows are showing heavy shrinkage and calves have not developed as expected. Ewes and lambs are in the poorest condition of record for thi s season of the year, with the exception of 1934. LIVESTOCK RECEIPTS (Number) FORT WORTH MARKET Clau Cattle •••••••••• Calvel •••••••••• Hogs ••••••••••• Sheep • • • ••••••• CROP PRODUCTION Texas and Five Southwestern Stotes (In thousond, of bushels) /t$1 July 1950 68,290 40,466 .2,484 82,389 52,971 18,309 35,.95 82,029 SAN ANTONIO MARKET J"". June 1951 July 1951 itlo 1951 32,230 16,040 401,633 128,059 28,814 27,655 6,623 '22,574 28,212 14,835 5,096 118,327 12,594 12,193 4,997 120,1.040 1 Indudes goofs. Texas Crop COHon l •••.••••• Com .•...•.• . .• Winter wheat .. .• Oats •.•..••.... Borley ••.•••.. .• Rye •• •••••••.•• Rice' •.•.•.. . .•• Sorgnum grain ••• Flox.eed •••••••. Hay' .••••.•••• • Peanuts s •••.•... Irbn potatoes .••• Sweet potatoes ••• Five sovthwe,tem sto'e,1 Average 19.4.0-.49 1950 EsHmof.d August 1, 1951 Average 1940·49 1950 Estimated Augvs'l, 1951 3,049 62,517 63,486 30,912 .4,010 209 8,2 6.4 69,694 625 1,437 303,934 4,648 5,378 2,946 65,730 22,712 27,027 1,729 196 11,544 148,BI8 1,266 1,281 323,400 2,752 5,130 5,000 44.612 17,325 7.756 636 105 11,319 85,068 6. 1,092 233,000 2,328 2,295 .4,0460 112,462 141,926 60,6042 12,553 984 18,264 84,067 1.256 4,624 413,641 9,996 14,730 4,275 119,183 67,6043 44,703 10,327 558 22,035 180.886 1.540 4,770 456.245 6,952 '5,870 7,675 91,465 59,100 20,411 5,872 576 22,561 108,54' 204 4,.426 372.795 5.819 8,255 I AriJ:ono, Louisiana, New Mexico. Oklahoma. and Te"al, , In thousand. of boles • • In thoVlands of bogs, 100 povnds each. 4 In thousands of tons. • In thousands of po ..... ds. SOURCE.: United States Deportment of Agriculture. Sorghum grain production in the District, curtailed this year in favor of more acreage to cotton, is forecast at 108,000,000 bushels, compared with a record 181,000,000 bushels harvested in 1950. The Texas crop is expected to total Because of the shortage of range and pasture feed, tbe seasonal rise in livestock marketings usually expected at this time of the year began early. Receipts of livestock at the Fort Wortb and San Antonio markets in July totaled 18 percent above June and 25 percent above July 1950. As compared with a year earlier, July receipts of cattle were up 19 percent; calves, up 106 percent; hogs, higher by 21 percent; and sheep and lambs, up 5 percent. Weekly marketings of livestock during August contihued to run substantially above rece ipts during comparable weeks of last year_ The drought also had an adverse effect upon the district lamb crop this year. Texas reported only 2,885,000 lambs saved, or 16 percent less than in 1950 and 31 percent below the 1940-49 average_ The number of lambs saved is equivalent to 64 percent of the breeding ewes on hand January 1, compared with last year's record high of 79 percent. Lack of green feed throughout the winter and early spring season 128 MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW cut heavily into the 1951 lamb crop, causing unusually higb losses. The lamb crop is smaller also in New Mexico and Ari· zona, although slightly larger in Oklahoma and Louisiana. CASH RECEIPTS FROM FARM MARKETINGS (In thousands of dollars) Cumulative receipts January-May May (In tholnonds of polmd s) 1951 as Average percent of Stote 1940·49 1950 1951p Ari:.:ona • •••...• ••.• • •.••••. • louhia na .•.... ........ ..•.. . New Mexico •.. .. .•.••..•••.. 3,622 644 13.953 Oklahoma ••• .•. .•. ..•. . .••. • fexClJ ••••• •••• •• •• •••. • ••• • 1,835 71,064 2,651 405 10,626 927 52,686 2,402 403 10,531 972 51,943 66 63 75 53 73 Total .....•...........• . 91,118 67,295 66,251 73 average p-Preliminory. SOURCE:United States Depo rtm en t of Agriculture. The Texas wool clip shorn and to be shorn in 1951, esti· mated at 51,943,000 pounds, is 1 percent below last year's clip and 27 percent below average. Lighter average weight per fleece for this spring was the principal factor ofTsetting an increase in number of sheep shorn. Declines in wool produc· tion also occurred in the other states of the District except Oklahoma, which reports an increase of 5 percen t. Produc· tion in the five states of the District is expected to total 66,· 000,000 pounds, or only 73 percent as much as the 10·year average. Production of poultry in the District this year will greatly exceed that of 1950. In Texas, the placement of broiler chicks on farms in the first 7 months of 1951 totaled 36,000,000, compared with 22,000,000 in the corresponding months of 1950. This increase will more than offset any reducti on that may occur in the output of farm chickens. Egg production in 1951 may be down sl ightly, due to the reduced numbers of hens in la yin g flo cks. Egg production in the five states of the District durin g the first 7 months totaled 4 percent less than in the same period last year. FARM COMMODITY PRiCeS Top Price. Paid in local Southwest Markets Commodity and marke' COTTON, Middling 15 / 16-inch, DaUos, •. WHEAT, No.1 hard, Fort Worth • • ••. ... OATS, No.2 white, Fort Worth .•..•••.• CORN, No.2 yenow, Fort Worth ••••.. . SORGHUMS, No.2 yellow milo, For' Wor,h HOGS, Choice, Fort Worth .•••. ... ... . SLAUGHTER STEERS. Choice, fort Worth SLAUGHTER CALVES, Choice, Fort Worth STOCKER STEERS. Choice, Fori Worth ... FEEDER LAMBS, Fort Worth .••• .... .... HENS, 3· 4 pounds, Dallas ....... ••. .. • FRYERS, local, 001101 • .•••• ••••••. ••.• TURKEYS, No. 1 hens, Dallas •.• .... ...• EGGS, No. 1 infertile. Dallal •• •......• Unit lb. b, b,. Week ended Aug. 23,1951 $ .3"'90 1.07Y, 2.03 2.50 22.75 36.00 35.50 36.00 30.00 <"". lb. lb. lb, dOl . .3715 1.03V2 <wt. cwt. cwl. cwt. $ 2.550/4 2.00 2.52 .1 6 .27 .35 .50 195 1 1950 Ari zona ..... . .. .... . ....... . Louisiana .... .. ... ... ....... . New Mexico .........•.. . .... Oklahoma •..........• . ..... . Texas . ..............•...... $ 18,277 S 18,965 12,076 17,668 26,473 141,944 12,907 14,864 34,437 137,057 113,900 90,288 63,801 162,925 609,756 Total .. .. ... . ............ . $216,438 $2 18,230 $1,040,670 1950 $ 90,824 79,459 53,557 182,845 641,233 $1,047,918 SOURCE: United Slates Department of Agriculture. Cash farm income in the five states of the District during the first 7 months of 1951 about eq ualed the $1,500,000,000 received during the same period last year, as generally higher prices for many commodities offset declines in marketings of commercial vegetables, citrus fru its, flaxseed, wheat, oats, wool, late 1950·crop cotton , and other commodities usuall y sold in volume during the first part of the year. Cash receipts from marketings of livestock and livestock products in the 5-state area through July totaled slightly ahove 81,000,000,000, up 30 percent from a year ago. Larger incomes were received from meat animals, dairy produ cts, poultry, eggs, and woo\. On the other hand, cash income from sale of crops, totaling $420,000,000 for the first 7 months of 1951 , was down 37 percent. In come from virtually all crops usuall y sold dur in g these months was lower, reflectin g the effects of winter freezes and droughty conditions over much of the District. The lowered estimates of cro p production given prcviously and the declines in pri ces of many important farm crops in recent months leave little doubt that cash farm income in district states for the calendar year 1951 will be lower than had been expected and possibly lo wer than in 1950. Income from livestock and livestock products, prices of which aver· age about 15 percent above a yea r ago, will exceed the $],. 539,000,000 received in 1950 by more than $100,000,000; income from crops may show a decline from the $1,975,000,· 000 received last year. Comparable Comparabl e week week last month last year 2.60~ b,. cwt. 1951 Slate SHORN WOOL PRODUCTION 23.00 36.00 35.00 3.5.00 29.00 .18 .27 .35 .45 .3775 2.45 .94 'A 1.66V2 2.20 24.50 2 8.50 22 .50 30.00 .15 .30 .30 .3 6 The general level of farm prices in the District has been drifting downward since April and appears to be continuing in that direction. The mid.July index of farm prices in Texas was down to 351, compared with the April 15 peak of 399. Reports from spot commodity markets during August show further declines in prices of cotton, wool, rice, barley, oats, corn, and lambs. On the other hand, there were slight ad· vances in prices of eggs and wheat. Between July 11 and August 15, loans of the weekly reporting member banks in leading ci ties of the District declined, continuing the gradual downward trend from the record total reported at the end of January. Most other major assets and li abi liti es, including investmcnts, dc· posits and cash assets, rose uuring the 5 weeks, Commercial, industrial, and agricultural loans declined during the 5·week period by $12,034,,000, Important in the decline was the rather large amount of liquidation of out· standing bank indebtedness by wholesale and retai l trade es· tablishments and manufacturers of petroleum, coal, chem· ical and rubber products. Construction firms and sales finance companies also reduced the amount of their outstanding bank borrowings. In contrast with other recent weeks and reflect· ing the beginning of the 1951 cotton marketing season, loans to cotton commodity dealers rose. Real estate loans and the MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW category compnsmg consumer loans also showed decreases during the 5 weeks. Largely as a consequence of these de. velopments, total loans were $11,238,000 lower on August 15 than on July 11. 129 762,000, an increase of about 5 percent over the year· earlier total. GROSS DEMAND AND TIME DEPOSITS Of MEMBER BANKS Eleventh Federal Reserve District Between January 31, which marked the all· time record high for loans at the weekly reporting m~mbcr banks, and August 15, the over·all decrease in loan s amounted to $65,· 284,000. Althougb seasonal contraction normally is expected during the spring and early summer months, the liquidation this year was not general at all weekly reporting cities. For example, the weekly reporting member banks in Dallas ac· counted for 55 percent of the total decrease; Houston banks, 31 percent ; and El Paso banks, 14 percent. On the other hand , reporting banks in Austin, Fort Worth, and San An· tonio showed increases within the range of 1 to 3 percent. Holdings of Governments at the weekly reportin g member banks increased during the 5 weeks ended August 15. Invest· ments in Treasury bills rose $44,755,000, while holdings of bonds showed an increase of $4,563,000. Reflecting largely Treasury refunding operations On August 1, investments in certificates of indebtedness rose $29,446,000, while note hold· ings decreased $34,727,000. On August 15, investments in Government securities amounted to $1,063,544,000, a de· crease of $132,366,000 from the year·earlier total. (AYerages of doily flgures. In thousands of dollars) COMBINED TOTAL Gross demand Date July 19.49 •••• _•• July 1950 •••• _•• March 1951 • .. .• April 1951 . , . . .• May 1951 ••.•.• June 1951 •••.•• July 1951 .. •• • .• RESERVE CITY BANKS Gross demand Time COUNTRY BANKS Gross demand Time Time $4,977,743 $629,655 52.417,780 $402,930 S2,559,963 $226,725 5,640.371 660,748 2,757,150 416,753 2,883,221 243,995 5,991.439 644,378 2.777,533 353,077 3,213,906 291,301 5,90B,685 647,902 2,751,029 353,798 3,157,656 294,104 5,801,415 658,973 2,697.033 362,380 3,104,382 296,593 2,720,158 374,734 3,100,151 295,057 5,820,309 669,791 5,855,513 673,533 2,746,696 376,455 3,108,817 297,078 Gross demand deposits of all member banks in the Dis· trict averaged $35,204,000 higher in July than in June, mark· ing the second consecutive monthly increase. The July in· crease was largely concentrated at reserve city banks, which accounted for three·fourths of the total. Time deposits increased $3,74,2,000, continuing the upward trend that has pre· vailed since March. Somewhat more than half of the increase was accounted for by country banks. During July, total time deposils averaged $673,533,000. BANK DEBITS, END-Of· MONTH DEPOSITS, AND ANNUAL RATE OF TURNOVER OF DEPOSITS (Amounts In thousands of dollars) DEBITS I CONDITION STATISTICS OF WEEKLY REPORTING MEMBER BANKS IN LEADING CITIES Eleventh Federal Reserve District (In thousands of dollors) August 1 S, Item City Augus' 16, 1950 July 11. 1951 $2,615,704 1,262,328 1,276,289 $2,634,526 1,432,226 1,449,105 971,391 9,208 861,037 6,498 983,"25 8,447 59,381 120,097 2.768 275.022 1,238,600 158,293 114,021 2 16,819 56,957 107,128 200 244,.69 1,339,415 93,918 121 ,788 295,423 57,592 121,509 1,215 276,917 1,185,421 113,538 84,575 251,546 574,411 175,056 549,793 398,895 2,208,787 433,727 85,426 702,871 0 684,781 143,505 .67,592 340,277 2,095,209 442,978 68,475 651,233 200 569,848 165,914 537, 178 340,160 2,145,128 440,820 98,656 6'0,114 0 1951 Tololloo", (gron) cnd investments ..••••••.•• $2.676,467 Totalloons-Ne,l •••.................... 1,421,777 Tolal loans-Gron .•............... .. ... 1,437,867 Commercial, induttricl, and agricultural loans ..•... ••.. .••...••. ... . .. ..•• Loans to brokers and dealers in securities .. Other loans for purchasing or carrying securities .. • . ••. .. ••.•.•.•.••....•• Real estate loans •.•.•...•••...•....•. loans to bonks .•••. •••.. . •.•.•••...•• AU other loons .•. . •....•. . •.•....•.•• Tolal inyestments ••• •• •••.• .•••.•• ...•• • U. S. Treasury bills • . .•. ••••.•. .•...••• U. S. Treasury certificates of indebtedneu. U. S. TreaslKY nares •.•••..••.•.•....•• U. S. Government bonds (inc. gtd. obligations) •••••••••.• •• •.•.•••••• Other securities •••••••••••••••.•...••• Reserves with Federal Reserve Bank ..•... •••• Balances with domestic banks ..• ••••••.. . . •• Demond deposits-ad justed) ........... . . ... TIme deposits except Goyernment .•••• . •••••• United States Government deposits ••••••...•• Interbank demand deposits ••.•.••. .•• • . .••• Borrowings from Federal ReserYe Bank ••.••••• DEPOSITS' Percentage change from I After deductions for reserYes ond unoUocoled charge-offs. 2 Includes all demand d e posits other than interbank and United States GoYernment, leu cosh items reported as on hand or in process of colleclion. The trend of deposits during the 5 weeks at these selected banks in leading cities of the District was upward, due to an expansion of $62,757,000 in interbank demand deposits and the usual midmonth, sharp increase in demand deposits of individuals, partnerships, and corporations. The latter showed an increase of $116,449,000, most of which occurred in the week ended August 15, a pay·roll date for many busi· ness and industrial firms. United States Government deposits and deposits of states and their political subdivisions declined $28,694,000. On August IS, deposits amounted to $3,700,- July 1951 ARIZONA Tucson .............. $ 75,292 26 LOUISIANA Monroe •• ••••••••••• 40,679 1 162,701 11 Shreveport •• • ••••••• NEW MEXICO RosweU ••••••••••••• 19,109 8 TEXAS Abilene •• • •••••••••• 47;767 I Amarillo •• • •.••••• •• 114,803 9 Austin .... ...... .. ... . 115,566 - 1 114,302 13 Beaumont • • ••••••••• 114,562 5 Corpus Christi •••••••• Corsicana •.••••••••• 12,033 7 1,241,951 - 7 Dallas .•••. • •• . ••••• 155,004 S Paso ••••••••••••• 6 435,428 13 Fort Worth •.• .. ••••• 6 Golveston • • •.•••••.• 75,044 12 Houston •• . •.•..•••• • 1,356,904 19,961 17 laredo •••••••• • ••• • 79,931 lubbock •••••••• .•.• # Port Arthur ••••••.••• 39,915 26 35,640 - 8 Son Angelo •••. • •••.• 337,458 4 San Antonio • . ••••••• 18,718 6 Texarkana ' •••.. . • ••• 48,859 Tyler .••• . •••••••••• 2 Waco • • .•••••...•• , 60,009 # 75,346 14 Wichita Falls • . ••.••• • Total-24 cities •••••••• $4,796,982 Annual role of turnoyer July June 1950 1951 4 July 31, 1951 $ July 1951 July June 1950 1951 92,931 9.7 8.5 10. 4 6 6 45,42 1 184,429 10.7 10.6 10.6 9.8 11.5 11.2 -11 23,778 9.6 9.4 10.8 -1 52,454 99,157 108,938 89,770 92,351 21,583 920,821 130,437 352,309 99,367 1,063,183 21,005 88,320 44.303 50,194 371,389 23;772 50,848 78,.484 102,85B 11.2 14.0 12.7 15.4 15.0 6.8 16.1 14.3 14.9 9.1 15.2 11.8 10.7 11.5 8.5 11.0 9.' 11..4 9.1 8.9 11.9 13.3 12.4 13.4 14.4 6.7 18.5 13.6 14.3 8.9 14.5 9.0 11.5 9.7 9.6 10.9 9.4 11.0 9.4 8.5 11.5 14.8 14.6 16.0 15.2 7.0 17.2 15.1 15.7 9.2 16.0 11.8 10.8 13.1 10.7 12.5 8.9 11.6 10.2 9.6 $4,208,102 13.7 13.8 14.5 - - 8 4 -14 3 3 1 5 6 6 -2 - 5 -1 - 2 - 8 -23 -12 6 - 2 -10 -4 - 6 I Debits to deposit accounts e)l;cept interbank accounts. 1 Demond and time deposits, including certifled and officen' checks outsta nding but excluding deposits to the credit of bonks. I This Agure indudes only one bonk in Texarkana, Texas. Total debits for aU bonks in Texarkono, Texos-Arkansos, including two banks located in the Eighth Distria, amounted to $32,297,000 for the month of July 1951. I Indicates change of 'ess than one-half of 1 pe rcent. Debits to deposit accounts reported by banks in 24 cities of the District were 6 percent lower in J lily than in J line. At this lower level, however, debits exceeded the total for July 1950, the first month of Korean hostilities and of greatly in· creased consumer and business purchasing, by 4 percent. With the exception of Texarkana, Texas, which showed an increase of 6 percent, each reporting city in the District reg· MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 130 istered a lower debits total in July than in June. Decreases ranged from 1 percent for Abilene, Corsicana, and Laredo, Texas, to 23 percent for San Angelo, Texas. The annual rate of turnover of deposits, or the annual rate of use of deposit accounts, was 13.7 in July, as compared with 14.5 in June and 13.8 in July 1950. Between July 15 and August 15, the principal changes in the condition of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas included decreases in member bank reserve deposits and gold certi ro· cate reserves amounting to $22,383,000 and $15,882,000, respectively. Changes in holdings of United States Government securities and tOlal earning assets were nominal, with the decrease in the latter resulting almost entirely from a decline in discounts for member banks and other advances. Federal Reserve notes of this Bank in aClual circulation on August 15 amounted to $652,994,000, reflecting an increase of $17,561,000 during the month and an increase of $42,053,000 over the year-earlier total. CONDITION OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS (In thousand, of doll an) August 15, Ite m 1951 Totgl gold certifkot. reserYes •..••. • . •••...• $ 516,878 Discounts for member banks ••••••••••••.••• 346 Industrial gdvQoces •••••..• ....• •.•.•••.••. 66 Foreign loo nl on gold •••.•.••.•.•..•. • . ..• o U. S. Government lecurilies ••••••••• • •...•.• 1,102,483 Total earning anets ..................... . . 1,102,894 Member bonk reserve deposits • ••• • ••••••••• 932,044 federal Reserve notes in gc;tuol circulation • .••• 652,994 August 15, 1950 July 15, 1951 $ 672.858 517 $ 532,760 2.276 70 830,952 831,539 815,835 610,941 1,101,535 1,103,861 954,427 635,433 o 50 o On July 31, the Secretary of the Treasury announced that holders of the 11,4.percent Treasury notes which matured August 1 exchanged $5,215,679,000 of those securities for lhe new refunding issue of 11-month 1'Va-percent certificates of indebtedness. Approximately 2.5 percent of the outstand· ing notes were exchanged for cash. On August 13, the Secretary of the Treasury called the 2%-percent Treasury bonds of 1951·53 for redemption on December 15. It was also announced that the 2-percent Treasury bonds of 1951-55, also callable on December 15, would not he called for redemption on that date. The called 2%. percent bonds are outstanding in the amount of $1,118,051,000. Under the persistent stimulus of the defen se program, nonfarm employment in Texas is estimated to have risen hy mid-August to nearly 2,550,000 persons, or 6 percent more than in Au gust 1950. The total increase since hefore Korea amounts to about 180,000 persons, or 8 percent. Manufacturing employment at mid.August is esti· mated at about 458,000 persons, or 11 percent more than a year ago, with the in crease since hefore Korea amounting to about 66,000 persons, or 17 percent. The largest gains in employment during the summer were in government estah· lishments, ordnance and aircraft production, services, and construction, with a large proportion of the latter being at defense installations. Some increases were also made in em· ployment in transportation, retail trade, petroleum refinin g, apparel production, and machinery production. Losses oc· curred in lumber products manufacturing and, seasonally, in wholesale trade. Unemployment in 17 Texas cities rose to 3.3 percent of the lahor force, as the result of hi gh school and college graduates enlering the lahor market, but declined as the summer progressed. CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION (Borre ls) July 1951 Area Toio l production ELEVENTH DISTRICT Texas R. R. Com. Districts 1 South Central ...... ••• 1,028,550 2 Middle Gulf....... . .. 5,084,000 3 Uppe r Gulf.......... 15,250,600 .4 Lower Gulf........... 7,975,250 5 East Central. • . • . . . . . . 1,700,750 6 Northeast ••... .. .• •.. 12, 101, 150 EastTexos •..•.•..• 8,410,300 Other flelds. 3,690,850 7b North Central.. 2,542,000 7c West Centrol.. 3,318,450 8 West...... ... 29,704,950 9 North....... ... .... .. 4,897,450 10 Panhandle.......... .. 2,709,950 Total Texas . • ...• ... 86,313,100 Ne w Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . • . . . 4,504,300 North Louisiana .......... ... 3,936,000 Toiol Ele~enth District .••... 94,753,400 OUTS10E ELEVENTH 01 STR1CT. •• 96,820,950 UNITED STATES ••.•• •. •••••. . 191,57.4,350 Doilyovg. production 33,179 164,000 491,955 257,266 54,863 390, 360 271,300 119,060 82,000 107,047 958,224 157,982 87,418 2,784,294 145,300 126,968 3,056,562 3,123,2..56 6,179,818 Increese or decrease in daily a~eroge production from July 1950 3,684 22,545 79,444 36,185 18, 200 16,949 _4,105 21,054 9,803 41,282 182,090 4,792 -5,058 409,916 14,624 -1,643 422,897 243.177 666,074 June 1951 132 693 -9,275 -4, 160 1,306 -8,308 -9,780 1,472 _5.143 1,775 16,281 318 -1, 182 -8,199 3,443 -2.687 -7,443 5,551 -1.892 SOURCE: Estimated from America n Petroleum Inditute weekly reports. The daily average crude oil production in the District, after six consecutive monthly increases, declined slightly in July. At 3,057,000 barrels per day, output was only 7,000 harrels dail y below the record June level and was 4-23,000 barrels dail y, or 16 percent, more than in July of last year. In early August a moderate increase in output, based on higher Texas all owables, indi cated tl,at the June record probably would be exceeded. In the Nation, too, crude oil produc. tion was at a record level in early Au gust, Still higher oUlput is in prospect during September, since Texas production al· lowables for the first of this month are 106,000 barrels daily above the August 1 rate and 135,000 barrels daily above July 1. RAILROAD COMMISSION OF TEXAS OIL AND GAS DISTRICTS , I. 3. • 5. Ii. 'h. 1c.. &. •• to. W tDOl E CWLF UI'PER GULF LOWER GULF on CEJ<fTRAL NQRTH'E .l.ST NOII:TH CENTRAL WEST CENTRAL WEST NORTH P'NHANDlE MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW Relinery aClivity in the District in July exceeded the June record, with daily runs to relinery stills averaging 1,916,000 barrels, or 23 percent more than a year ago. The increase since last year in this District continues to exceed substan· tiall y the gain shown for the Nation's refmeries, which in July amounted to 11 percent. National stocks of crude oil and the four major relined products- gasoline, kerosene, gas and distillate ruel oil, and residual fuel oil-at the end of July wcre, each, 5 percent or more above a year ago, with light fuel oil stocks being up 25 percent. Crude oil stocks in the Nation by the end of July had risen to 251,000,000 barrels, which is only 1,000,000 barrels above the level often suggested as appropriate for the industry. The upward trend of demand and the uncer· tainty of the world situation have made an increase in the crude inventory desirable. Gasoline stocks in the Nation con. tinued to decline by less than the usual seasonal amounts, while stocks of kerosene, light fuel oil, and residual fuel oil, each, increased in line with seasonal patterns. This strong stock position has been maintained in spite of increased foreign buying of relined products in American markets. While the 500,000.barrel.capacity relinery in Iran is closed, a large amount of this loss of capacity is being met by the stepping up of refinery activity around the world. World crude oil production is being rather well maintained, despite the loss of Iranian crude, . with Kuwait and Saudi Arabia increasing output by an amount equal to about 70 percent of the normal crude oil production in Iran. 131 District and 24,100 in the Nation, representin g gains of 7 percent and 3 percent, respcctively, over the corresponding months of last year. The rate of drilling activity forecast by trade journals for the remaining months of 1951 would lead to a new record for the year. Contributing to the high rate of completions is activity in the Spraberry sands in west Texas, where a trend about 130 miles lon g and 50 miles wide, covering portions of eight counties and centeri ng in the eastern part of Midland County, now has several hundred producing wells. The Spraberry trend has several tinles the area of the east Texas lield but, as yet, appreciably less production capacity. The steel shortage is curbing the expansion of the natural gas industry. As anticipated, limitations of natural gas pipeline capacity made necessary an order by the PAD restrict· ing natural gas utilities in 15 eastern states from taking on new residential customers and requiring PAD approval before large-volume customers are accepted. Consumption of natural gas has increased rapidly and, without restrictions, defense plants and other present users might suffer from shortages if too many additional customers were served. VALUE OF CONSTRUCTION CONTRACTS AWARDED (In thousands of dollan) July 19S1p Area and type ELEVENTH DISTRICT •• Residential. . . . . . . All otfler.. .... ... $ 112,882 53,745 59.137 UNITED STATESt •... While the present stocks of crude petroleum and its prod. ucts are good insurance in an uncertain world, the possihility of an oversupply during the months ahead should be Con. sidered. The over· all United States supply has been exceed· ing demand by an increasing amount since last March. Though demand is at a record level, an oversupply situation could develop quickly in the event of decreased military reo quirements and the resumption of shipments from Iran. Thi s is a risk the industry is forced to take, however, to be ready for any emergency. Then too, there is the usual winter up. swing in demand for heating oils, which might absorb most of any excess of inventories built up during the late summer and fall. The Petroleum Administration for Defense in early August appealed to the domestic oil industry to expand production and adjust operations to the larger export demand for reo lined products resulting from the halt in relinery operations in Iran. Lookin g further ahead, the PAD has urged expansion of domestic producing and relining capacity by 1,000,000 harrels daily by the end of 1953, with the possibility of an additional 500,000 barrels daily being recommended if con. ditions continue uncertain in Near Eastern sourccs of supply. Possihle limitin g factors in such long-range expansion include the shortages of steel and other critical materials, which are keeping the current refinery expansion program some. what behind schedule. Drillin g activity has continued at a hi gh level in spite of the tight sleel situation, with well completions during the lirst 7 months of 1951 totaling approximately 11,100 in this 1,379,830 Residential. . . . . . . All other. . . . . . . . . 548,144 831,686 JoJ.y 1950 J"". 1951 $ 105,460 $ 108,388 50,318 48,622 58,070 56,838 1,420,181 1,408.932 545.152 675,080 745,101 863,780 January-July 1951p 1950 923,291 $ 636,411 409,109 299,937 514,182 336,474 10,187,93 9 8,274,329 3,871,871 6,316,068 3,932,205 4,342,124 1 37 states east of the Rocky Mountains. p-Preliminary. SOURCE: F. W. Dodge Corporation. The total value of construction contract awards in the District increased moderately from June to July. Though the $113,000,000 worth of July awards was 4 percent more than for the previous month and 7 percent more than in July of last year, this amount represents the second lowest monthly total since January. Residential awards at $54,000,000 were up 7 percent from June and 11 percent from a year ago but were the second lowest for any month this year. Military and public housing projects amounting to at least $15,000,000 buoyed up the residential total, which otherwise would have been substantially lower than a year ago. Sales of houses have declined, and there has heen some price softening under the impact of a "wait·and·see" psychology durin g the cease· lire negotiations in Korea and the increasing proportion of new houses covered by Regulation X. Nonresidential awards in July amounted to $59,000,000, or 2 percent more than during the previous month and 4 percent above July of last year. Ho,vever, compared with the earlier months of this year, nonresidential awards were noticeably down. Nearly two-thirds of the July nonresidential awards were for public construction, particularly ed ucational pro jects and army, naval, and air force installations. Despite the contraseasonal lull in construction contract awards during June and July, the total value of such awards during the first 7 months of this year, $923,000,000, is 45 MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 132 percent more than durin g the same months of last year. The residential total for 7 months this year, $409,000,000, is up 36 percent, and the nonresidential total of $514,000,000 is up 53 percent. It is probable that in spite of further declines total awards for the full year 1951 will exceed the 1950 record, with the nonresidential total also being up from 1950. If public and military housin g projects sustain suf· ficiently the residential sector of the industry, the 1950 recore! for residential awards may be approached. BUltDING PERMITS 7montM 1951 Percentage Percentage change in change in valuation from July 1951 City Nl1I1lber Valuation Number July 1950 VollKJlion vo luolion from 7 monthl 1950 J""o 1951 LOUISIANA Shreveport .... TEXAS Abil ene ...... . 302 $ Corpus Ch,I,tl .. 87 279 204 248 364 001105 ••• .. •• . 1,408 Amarillo . •.••• Austin ... .... . Beaumont • • •• • 221 Fort Worth •••. 532 Gltllveston •.•. . 108 Houston ••.••• • 809 lubbock • . •• .. 200 Port Arthur • •.• 167 SltIn Antonio . •• 1,263 Wltl(o •••••••• 13. Wlchitltl FItIIIJ ••• 95 B Poso ....... Totltllo •••••••• • • 845,959 -87 -34 2,283 9,906,866 -48 - I 241 -64 -34 -42 151 -58 -16 -37 112 -59 - 7 36 105 -52 -40 -64 -98 -52 24 -71 -19 -34 -77 -35 31 -17 88 -21 .. 716 2,217 1,687 1,748 2,329 11,584 1,820 4,824 790 7,Q28 2,137 1,136 8,585 1,430 767 4,810,807 12,382,293 15,997,756 3,76 3,438 13,503,616 60,295,982 11,578,OBO 31,404,322 6,743,033 86,656,337 10,133,108 3,052,087 26,278,495 8,661,453 4,593,529 -39 - 3 -38 -42 -18 -13 -23 12 83 - 9 -33 -27 -15 -27 39 4 51,081 $309,761,202 qui red metal goods in inventory, Most residential huildin g may go ahead, as well as small stores and even some amusement places, but the order will freeze temporarily the start of many new factories, schools, hospitals, and public buildings. Builders of such projects may apply for allotments of critical materials for the fourth quarter of this year, With the worldwide scarcity of sulphur spurring the search for new sources of supply, the commercial production of this basic industrial raw material from sour gas has been started in the Texas Panhandle, with similar projects under way in west Texas and elsewhere. For seve ral years, sour gas has been sweetened for commercial use by the removal of suI· phur, hut until recently the process had been considered unprofitable so fa r as the sale of the sulphur was concerned. The ou tput of sulphur from sou r gas in Texas during the second quarter of this year was only 1,108 tons, and even the prospective rapid stepping up of production is unlikely to result in more tl,an a fractional increase in the State's total output, which last year amounted to 3,949,000 tons, all from mines in four counties on the Gulf Coast. During the first hal f of 1951, native sulphur production in the United States- virtually all in Texas and Louisiana- totaled 2,594,000 tons, or 2 percent more than during the same period last year. Restriction s on li se continued to hold consumption at somewhat less than output, so that stocks were built up to a moderate extent, -15 928, 180 896,447 2,947,277 361,413 1,494,485 5,648,790 2,683,522 1,881,2 00 11 6,089 9,598,423 863,182 222,668 3,035,0 87 898,850 1,243,356 6,421 $33,664,928 -50 - $ Many types of new construction were banned from August 3 until October 1 hy National Production Authority Order M-4A, which prohibits the commencement of construction that requires more than minimum amounts of steel and copper, Exceptions are allowed in the case of the Atomic Energy Commission and the Defense Department, as well as in the case of private builders who already have the reo Cement production in Texas durin g the first half of 1951 amounted to 8,666,000 barrels, or 7 percent more than during the same period last year. This increase compares with a 15percent gain in the Nation. Carbon black production in the Nation- mostl y in Texas and Louisiana- amounted to 798,· 000,000 pounds du ring the first 6 months, or 28 percent more than during the corresponding months of last year, :Most other southwestern manufacturing and mining indus. tries also were operating at higher rates,