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MONTHLY
BUSINESS
REVIEW
of
the
FEDERAL
Volume 33
RESERVE
BANK
Dallas, Texas, October 1, 1948
of
Dallas
Number 10
THE CONSTRUCTION SITUATIONITS IMPLICATIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST
W.
Industrial Economist
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
KEITH
JOHNSON,
Over a period of years, building and construction activity has accounted for about 10 percent
of the total production of goods and services in the United States. In this respect, construction ranks
next to agriculture and ahead of all other individual industries. Construction contractors employed
2,250,000 people in August 1948, and about that many more were employed in the production of
construction materials and equipment. The significance of construction to the economy is increased
by its cyclical tendencies, involving boom and depression periods of from 7 to 11 years each in a cycle
from 15 to 21 years in duration and averaging about 18 years, although construction booms and
depressions are dependent in large part on demand and the general business situation. The peaks in
past cycles have been from two to four times as high as the low points, thus contributing to wide
fluctuations in employment and economic activity generally. Moreover, fluctuations in construction
activity have been associated with similar fluctuations in the extension of mortgage credit, so that the
construction cycle tends to contribute to a credit cycle which accentuates both booms and depressions.
As a result of thes~ factors, the economy has tended to experience 7- to ll-year periods of stimulation from construction booms, followed by similar periods during which such stimulation is
lacking. For example, during the construction boom of the 1920's, general business activity was
stimulated by construction expenditures during the recessions of 1924 and 1927 and the more numerous prosperity years of that decade. The construction boom was among the several reasons for the
generally high level of business activity and the mildness of the recessions characteristic of the middle
1920's. On the other hand, during the 1930's, when construction expenditures were subnormal, the
stimulus to the rest of the economy was weak, contributing to the depth and duration of the depression and retarding the attainment of full recovery during such upswings in business activity as that
which culminated in 1937. Of course, the 18-year construction cycle does not obliterate the ordinary
3- to 4-year and 7- to 10-year business cycles but, rather, tends to cause the highs and the lows of
business cycles to occur at somewhat higher levels during construction booms and at somewhat lower
levels during lean periods in construction.
The long construction cycle is at least partly the result of the durability of the buildings, highways, bridges, and other products of the industry. Such durable structures are not replaced very often,
with the result that tbe construction volume of a single year usually amounts to only 2 to 7 percent
of tbe total existing stocks of buildings and other such structures and averages about 5 percent of
such stocks. A construction industry geared to produce at such levels cannot quickly produce enough
to overcome an appreciable shortage which may have developed. Thus, for example, the postwar
shortage of housing, commercial buildings, schools, and other such structures is not proving easy to
This publication was digitized and made available by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' Historical Library (FedHistory@dal.frb.org)
156
MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
overcome, since the accumulated deficits in production carried over from the depression years of the
1930's and the period of wartime restrictions cannot be made up in less than several years of construction boom. On the other hand, when a surplus of such structures exists, as during t;.he 1930's,
the durability of those structures prevents the surplus from being reduced appreciably except over
an extended period of time. Chiefly for this reason, depressed conditions in the construction industry
tend to persist for quite a number of years.
NEW CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY IN THE UNITED STATES
CURRENT AND 1939 PRICES
BILLIONS M OOllAtitS
ILUONS OF DOLLARS
a
20
181' - - - - 1 - - - - 1 - - - - - + - - - - 1 - - - - 1 - - - - +-
--'118
·''----I----I-----+----1----I----+-I·~1
-7/-j
· > - - - - I - - - - I - --l---.J-.-- i-l-~--I.
----1---+----1--r-
2'
,~
.
NE W
7
CONSTRUCTION
IN CURRENT
- -\
PRICES,
:~==:~b#~
./-+7'i_~,\:===:==:lhffr
-\t
7
1\] \
.
...."'J!
....._-----x,I
7 ,,-,CONSTRUCTION
'
~\;
-----::-.,;.J
"
.r
\.
\
I.
12
7:
,
./ -
i
.
\cli
41-f7'-.;'.~~"': IN 1939 PRICES \.
4
2~V____~___+ - I_ _-+__~\··~·+-__~____~I~.
I
NEW
.. ESTI .....TEO
~S'DI; ....ItTIIII[JrfTtyeoMM[1tU
OEPARTW£N'T OF UBM
Another factor accounting for the extremes
of the construction cycle is the stimulative and
even inflationary effect of construction booms
upon the whole economy. The prosperity thus
induced further increases the demand for construction products beyond normal replacement
needs and beyond the ability of the industry to
supply in the short-term period. The expansion
of real-estate credit during such booms also adds
to the effective demand for construction activity.
The opposite effect is found when, with a decline
in construction activity, the whole economy
tends to become depressed, thereby lessening the
demand for the products of construction, with
the result that an existing surplus of construction
products is augmented and a longer period of time
elapses before a revival of construction activity
takes place .
In appralSlng the present and prospective
position of the construction industry, it is significant that during the construction cycle of 1918-33 the average construction expenditures were
about $7,500,000,000 per year in terms of 1939 prices, which is equivalent to about $16,000,000,000
per year at 1948 prices. During the decade of the 1930's, new construction activity fell short of this
average rate by about $5,500,000,000 per year at 1948 prices, piling up an apparent deficit of about
$55,000,000,000 during the decade. Despite the increase in construction during 1940-42, the apparent
accumulated deficit rose to over $65,000,000,000 between 1940 and 1946. These figures are, of
course, somewhat conjectural, since the normal rate
TABLE I
of construction activity
BACKLOG OF PROPOSED ENGINEERING CONSTRUCTION IN THE UNITED
now may be considerably
STATES AT SELECTED DATES, 1943-48
higher or lower than in
(AmounlB in millions of dollars)
_Percentage dilltribution---..
1918-33 and much of the
Dec. 31,
Dec. 31,
Dee. 31,
Dee. 31,
Dee. 31.
Jun. 30,
Doo.31,
Juo.30,
Class of Work
1943
19H
194~
1946
1947
1948
1945
1948
construction foregone in Water works.. ....... n. a.
ll. a.
$ 874 $ 1,131 $ 1,155 S 1,170
3.1
2.8
the past may be forever Sewage... .. . ... .. ... . n. a . ll. a .
1,549
1,996
2,186
2,159
5.5
5.1
lost. However, the $65,- EaBrirtdgeswo
· r·k· a·n·d· ·d·r·a·m
. · a· g·e· ll. Q ,
ll. a.
1,144
1,264
1,385
1,396
4.1
3.3
h
ll. a.
n. a.
6,892
7,543
7,598
7,499 24.6
17.8
000,000,000 figure does Street and road ....... ll. a. ll. a.
3,728
4,153
4,235
4,268 13.3
10.1
.
'd
f h
. Public building .. .. ... . ll. R. ll. a.
5,806
7,480
8,424
9,093 20.7
21.6
gIve an I ea 0 t e magm- Industrial building.. ... ll. R.
ll. a .
1,331
2,402
3,544
3,815
4.8
9.0
tude of the construction Commercial building... D . a.
ll. a;
1,901
3,545
4,645
4,865
6.8
11.5
task which was before us Unclassified........... n. a. ll. a.
4,777
6,043
7,807
7,926
17.1
18.8
as the postwar construcTotal .... . . . .. . :) 5,101 $16,615 $28,002 $35,557 $40,979 542,191 100.0 100.0
tion boom got under way.
ll. a.-Not available.
This large deficit figure
SOURCE: Engineering News Record,
tends to be confirmed by a
compilation of the estimated backlog of proposed heavy engineering-type construction scheduled or
planned but not yet completed. The estimated backlog of this heavy construction, which usually
accounts for less than half of all new construction, was $42,100,000,000 at mid-1948. Regardless of
the precise size of the total construction backlog, it should keep the industry busy for several years,
since a large part of our present $18,000,000,000 a year construction capacity at current prices
would be utilized in meeting the new requirements originating each year.
167
MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
Just prior to World War II the actual and potential demands for construction were great enough
to stimulate an increase in construction activity, but the boom that had been predicted for the early
1940's was largely delayed by the war, which stimulated war construction but retarded most residential,
commercial, and other less essential types of construction activity. During World War II, military
and naval facilities and war plants were built very rapidly as the result of military necessity, government aids, and the availability of labor and materials early in the period. The peak was reached in
1942, after which construction volume declined while the economy turned more largely to war production within the plants constructed in 1941-42. During the period of wartime restrictions, construction activity fell to less than one-third of the 1942 level. After the relaxation of these restrictions
about V-E Day and their complete cancellation in the following November, construction volume
increased rapidly, surpassing in 1947 the 1942 peak in dollar volume although not in physical volume.
As a result of the all-time high in demand, the postwar construction industry has been faced
with a market capable of absorbing far more than could be produced within a few years. To the
extent that the demand for one type of construction has been more nearly satisfied, the demand for
other types has tended to remain more nearly unsatisfied. In fact, until 1948, there appears to have
been no major type of construction in which production was at levels high enough to approach the
requirements of our economy. The veterans housing program, while increasing the proportion of
national construction capacity directed toward housing, has not achieved anywhere near the full solution of the housing problem. Industrial construction seems to have fared somewhat better than other
types in this respect, since the large number of war plants built in 1941-43 were to some extent adaptable to peacetime industrial uses. Furthermore, a large volume of liquid assets was available for immediate postwar investment in new industrial plants. Such plants were completed in large numbers in
1946-47 and have contributed to increased postwar productive capacity. The volume of industrial
construction in 1948 to date suggests the possibility that the peak has been passed in this type of construction so that some of this construction capacity now may be switched to other types of building
and constructiop.
While construction activity has increased
for nearly four years, with a new peak in prospect in 1948, there are, nevertheless, limits to the
capacity of the construction industry. First, the
skilled labor supply required by the industry
cannot be increased quickly. The periods of
apprenticeship for carpenters, bricklayers, painters, roofers, and other such skilled workers are
typically from three to five years, and apprentice training programs have been handicapped
by the many alternative opportunities available
to young workers. The number of construction
workers has increased in recent years, but it is
still below requirements needed by the industry
to satisfy current demand. With virtually full
employment in the industry, construction craftsmen have enjoyed a sellers' market for their
services, a condition which has not been stimulative to greater productivity.
TABLE II
PRODUCTION OF SELECTED CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS IN THE UNITED STATES AND TEXAS, 1939-48
Lumber
(million bd. £t.)
Portland cement
(thousand barrels)
~-'----'-_~
United
Year
Btab~8
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
January
February
March
April
May
June
24,975
28,934
33,476
36,332
34,289
32,938
28,122
34,936
36,635
J an.-June
17,614
2,719
2,480
3,022
3,035
3,089
3,269
Fabricated
Unglazed etructural
steel (thoubrick
_ _ _ _ _ (mimo..,)
sand tOIl3)
Tex..
United
State.
United
States
122,259
130,217
164,031
182,781
133,424
90,906
lO2,805
164,064
186,533
6,541
7,375
8,598
11,401
7,264
6,136
8,037
10,713
12,461
4,726
4,079
4,938
3,388
1,918
1,878
2,289
4,869
5,028
1,440
1,516
2,251
2,040
832
598
797
1,552
1,915
n. a.
14,541
13,347
14,502
16,041
17,740
J 7,757
935
1,088
1,044
1,181
1,095
1,142
369
318
392
445
498
541
146
142
167
165
180
148
n . a.
93,928
6,485
2,563
948
T."",
United
State.
1,137
1,271
1,329
1,384
1,129
1,090
933
1,343
1,450e
n. a.
n. a.
n. a.
n. a.
n. a.
Building and construction materials shorte-Estimated.
n. a.-~ot available.
ages also have limited the expansion of construcSOURCES: American Institute of Steel Construction.
American Iron and Steel Institute.
tion. The low level of construction activity durBureau of Mines.
Bureau of the Census.
h
b
f
W
Id
d
d
d
d
ing t e eca e e ore
or War II i not
National Lumber Manufaeturers Association.
encourage expansion of productive capacity in
The Texas Almanac 1947-1948.
the building materials field; moreover, such
expansion was hindered during the war except where it contributed to the war effort. The postwar
expansion of the production of such materials has been limited by the fact that the construction
materials industries have had to compete with other industries for labor, plant facilities, and materials during a period of full employment of men and resources.
158
MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
From 1939 to 1948, new construction activity in terms of physical volume increased by about
33 percent. The increase in the production of 20 selected construction materials was about 42 percent, which, even allowing for the need for inventory accumulation, might have been sufficient if
a better distribution by kinds of materials could have been obtained. Lumber production is 36 percent above the 1939 level; brick, 37 percent; warm air furnaces, 64 percent; cement, 75 percent;
asphalt prepared roofing, 84 percent; and gypsum board, 586 percent. On the other hand, increases
are smaller than the increase in physical volume of construction in the cases of wire nails, 31 percent;
clay tile, 27 percent; fabricated structural steel, 23 percent; concrete reinforcing bars, 20 percent;
and cast iron radiators, 4 percent. The supply of construction labor has been adequate to permit contract construction employment during the first half of 1948 to average 68 percent above the 1939
level, but the increase in
TABLE III
employment is due less to
recruiting new craftsmen
INDEXES OF CONSTRUCTION COSTS. 1915-48
and more to reduction of
(1939 - 100)
Paint and Wage scales in building trades _
All
Total
unemployment existing in
paint.
Journey·
Helpers
construction eom t rucLion Brick and
Lumber
mnl.eriab All trades
men
and laborer
materiala
tile
Cement.
Year
coot
the earlier year. Now that
66. 2
32 .4
37.2
]915
42. 8
55.9
52.3
38. 0
58.8
59.1
the production of con70 . 1
71.5
129.5 128.4 177.3 178. 9
70.0
165.9
1920
133. 9
95.4 ]01. 3
71 .3
71. 4
72 . 2
1921
107 .6
115. 6 121. 4
108. 9
struction materials is at
93. 1
97 .5 100.6 114.6
103. 2
93 .6
88. 8
1929
106 .7
105.4
about full capacity and
62.8
83 .6
79 .2
83. 1
81.4
84.6
85. 9
1932
81. 1
78. 9
100 .0
100 .0
100 .0 100 .0 100. 0 100. 0 100 .0 100 .0 100.0
1939
the slack in construction
99.0
110 .4 103.5 101.6 101.4 102.0
99. 0
1940
102 .7
104.8
employment has virtually
102 .5 100 .8 131.4 110 .4 105 .3 105 .0 106 .8
112 .3
114 .0
1941
107 .2 103. 0 142. 7 121. 1 111.9 110 .9 117.5
129 .1
121. 8
194.2
vanished, any further ex]943
123. 1
108.4 102.7 151.7 123. 6 112 .7 111 .5 118 .9
135. 7
pansion of the phy sical
111.3 .1 04.5 164.5 127.1 113 .6 112.4 120.3
133 .3
127 .6
1944
123. 0 108.9 166.4 129. 1 11 6 .0 114 .4 125 .9
130. 2
1945
137.4
volume of construction
146 . 1
133. 8 114. 0 191. 1 142.8 129. 3 126 .8 146 .3
]946
159.6
must proceed slowly.
153 .2 126.7 297 .4 196.4 147 .9 144.6 171.1
198.3
190 .3
1947
1948
n. a.
n. a
167 .7 141.1 336. 1 191. 7
n. a.
June
212 .0
217 .5
The apparent hesin. a.- Not available.
tancy to expand both the
SOURCES : United States Department of Commerce; United States Department of Labor.
construction labor force
and the capacity to produce construction materials has also been a factor in the slow technical progress of the construction
industry. The light construction industry has changed less and has experienced the least mechanization
of any of our major industries. New techniques have contributed comparatively little to the lowering
of construction costs. Prefabrication offered some promise of a possible technological revolution in construction but to date has not accomplished as
INDEXES OF CONSTRUCTION COSTS.
much as had been anticipated. Antiquated buildWHOLESALE PRICES, AND CONSUMERS' PRICES
ing codes, opposition by skilled construction
(1926 -1001
,
"0£
'"0
workers, and hesitancy to cooperate on the part
2~'o
22
00
of
construction materials producers have been
,2
among the obstacles to the progress of prefabri.I
lili0
i- I
! 80 cation. Partly as a result of such slowness to progCONSTRUCTION
f
60
ress, construction costs have increased relative to
160
COSTS --.::.! - , I
,
,
the general p;ice level over the last several decI
i
l
q!,,",WHOLESALE
PRICES
14 0 - , ' ,l-,'-I 40 ades. As long as the demand for construction
/' J:,\
I
20
remains in excess of the capacity of the industry,
12
I
! \
prices of buildings and other construction prod--~:;
"i.: roo ~ /
00
ucts will remain high and there will be less in,I / I bl.
' ,0.
'~
...r---'
-;,
"'I ""
-....:..
I~
,,eo centive to attempt to cut costs by the use of new
80/
"', '-'":
CONSUMERS'
, __
PRICES
techniques. Later, when there is no longer a strong
6
60
o
sellers' mar ket, there may be more economic
0
19<1 0
..:f incentive to technical progress in this industry.
l!lZO
~"
",.
~"
0- :-1"
I
::V-/~I
l
\
7
t
~
...
SOOItCU , DEPAATMENT OF CO NM( RCE
OEPA ltTIII[NT OF L Io SOfI
I
, ....
...
The total dollar value of all new construction in the United States reached an all-time
high of nearly $14,000,000,000 in 1947 and is expected to rise to $18,000,000,000 for 1948. Even after
allowing for a rise of about 12 percent in construction costs since 1947, as m easured by the Department
of Commerce composite index, the increase in physical volume of construction is expected to be about
14 percent.
MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
159
During periods of peacetime prosperity, private construction normally accounts for 75 to 80
percent of all new construction, with public construction accounting for the remainder. During the
depression years of the 1930's, private construction declined and in 1933 was only 43 percent of the
total. Wartime restrictions in 1942 held private
construction down to 22 percent of total conTABLE IV
struction, but the relationship has now moved
ACTIVITY IN THE UNITED STATES, BY
back to the 75 to 80 percent range, with the CONSTRUCTION
TYPES OF CONSTRUCTION, 1947-48
1948 proportion being estimated at 77 percent.
(In
million! or dolLare)
Jan.-Aug.
Tota11948
Type of oou.I!truction
1947
1948
(estimaUd)
During the depression decade of the 1930's,
Total new construction ... .... ....... . $13,977 $11,224 $18,000
an average of 273 ,000 new nonfarm dwelling Total private .. ...... . . ............ . $1D,893 '"$8,779 $13,850
units per year were built, or about 60 percent
Residential (excl. farm). . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,260
4,485
7,100
2,319
3,750
Nonresidential building.......... ... 3,131
as many as were required to keep pace with the
Industrial ...................... .. 1,702
943
1,425
increase in the number of nonfarm families.
216
209
375
Warehouses, ollice and loft buildings.
Stores, restaurants, and garages .....
619
604
1,000
Toward the end of that decade, residential buildOther nonresidential huilding . . . . . . .
594
563
950
ing increased and by 1940 603,000 dwelling units
Farm construction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
450
363
500
1,612
2,500
Public utility. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,052
were constructed, with the total rising in 1941
318
218
350
Itailroad . . . . ...... . ..... . . .. . . ...
to 715,000 units. That beginning of a housing
510
445
625
Telephone and telegraph . . . . . . . . . . .
Other public utility . . . . . . . . . .. . • . . 1,224
949
1,525
boom, however, was cut short by wartime restrictions without attaining a level of output per Total public . . . . . . . . .. .......•.•. • .. $ 3,084 $ 2,445 $ 4,150
Residential. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
182 ~ ----n;
year equal to any of the boom years between
505
572
1,000
Nonresidential building . . . . . .• .• . • . .
1922 and 1928. As a result of the very low levels
13
25
Industrial. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . • . . . .
25
Educational. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . •
275
316
525
of residential building in 1943-45, the average
104
225
Hospital and institutional.. . . . . . . . .
81
number of new dwelling units built in the period
139
225
Other nonresidcntial building. . . . . . .
124
104
200
Military and naval. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
204
1940-45 was 430,000 per year, or about two914
1,600
Highway .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,233
thirds as many as were required to keep pace
284
450
331
Sewer and water . . .. . .. .. . . . . . .. .. .
72
125
Misc. public service enterprises. . . . . .
117
with the increase in families. Thus, in fifteen
364
550
396
Conservation and development. . . . . .
years, 5,31'5,000 new dwelling units were built,
160
89
All other public. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
116
while the number of families increased at least Maintenance and repairs . . .... .. ... . .. $ 7,104 n. So,
8,000,000. Assuming that the boom of the 1920's
had resulted in a surplus of about a million hous- Total construction ... . . . ... . . . . ... . '.' $21,081 n. a.
n. a.-Not available.
ing units, there would still have been a deficit
SOURCES: United States Department of Commerce.
at the end of 1945 of about 1,700,000 units.
United States Department of Labor.
About 662,000 dwelling units, including 438,000
permanent units, were built in 1946 and 832,000
permanent units were completed in 1947; inasmuch as the increase in the number of families was somewhat less than these figures, by the end of 1947 the housing deficit had been reduced to about 1,500,000. By producing 950,000 units in 1948, the deficit may be reduced by perhaps another 200,000.
In appraising the current output of housing it is notable that in 1925, for a population of about
116,000,000, approximately 937,000 new dwelling units were built. For 22 years thereafter that
building record was not equaled. By 1948, the population had gradually grown to about 145,000,000,
or 25 percent greater than in 1925, yet the prospective building of 950,000 dwelling units in 1948
only exceeds fractionally the 1925 record in dwelling units built.
In the housing market, the limited output is, in effect, rationed out on the basis of purchasing
power, the purchasing power being chiefly in the form of mortgage money. and wartime and postwar
savings. The person who can raise or borrow the most money can outbid others, but, in the process,
housing prices and costs soar. These higher prices probably account for but little of the sharp
increase in production, since a much smaller price increase would have been practically as effective
as a stimulus to full capacity construction and would have been much less inflationary. Mortgage
debt outstanding on one- to four-family houses increased from $19,991,000,000 at the end of 1945
to about $32,800,000,000 at the middle of 1948, an increase of 64 percent. This increase is approximately proportional to the increase in the total market value of such houses but is nine times as great
as the 7 percent increase in the existing number of dwelling units during the same period. There is
much evidence that easy mortgage credit has done less to produce more houses than it has to produce
more expensive houses. A slowly declining price level followed by a period of price stability in resi-
160
MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
dential construction could signal a healthier housing market which would support a large volume
of residential building for quite a few years.
Nonresidential building includes a considerable variety of structures, of which industrial buildings have usually accounted for a significant construction volume. As was the case after Wodd War I,
industrial construction appears to have passed its post-World War II peak sooner than most other
types of construction, as the estimated volume of industrial construction in 1948 is expected to drop
16 percent below the 1947 peak of $1,702,000,000. On the other hand, the building of stores, restaurants, and garages is increasing and is expected to reach a new peak of $1,000,000,000 in 1948 and
to hold up relatively well for some time; the same trend may characterize construction of warehouses,
office and loft buildings, churches, and hotels.
Railroads, local transit lines, and telegraph companies may increase their construction expenditures somewhat, but their lack of growth trend probably should prevent their equaling records of
earlier booms except possibly on an inflated dollar basis. Gas and electric utilities, telephone companies, and pipe lincs, which exhibit indications of a long-time growth trend, probably will establish
new construction volume records in 1948. In many communities the shortage of utility facilities has
been almost as serious as the shortage of houses, and the backlog of utility construction may require
several years to overcome. In this connection, it may be noted that during the boom of the 1920's,
public utility construction reached its peak relatively late, in 1929.
Highway and street construction, which is normally the largest single type of public construction, amounted to 40 percent of all public construction in 1947 and is expected to represent about
the same proportion in 1948. Such construction has generally amounted to about a tenth of all new
construction, both public and private. It is estimated that federal, state, county, and municipal governments will spend about $1,600,000,000 on such construction in 1948. Despite these large expenditures, a substantial backlog of highway and street construction will remain. Other important types
of public construction are schools, hospitals and other institutional buildings, other public buildings,
and sewer and water facilities. The need for these types of construction is closely related to the need
for housing, since the great increase in urban and metropolitan populations has created demands for
shelter, education, health protection, and other public services associated with the postwar American
standard of living. Newall-time highs, in dollar volume at least, for most of these types of construction are expected in 1948.
The maintenance and repair of existing buildings and structures also employ a large volume of
construction labor and materials and, to some
extent, add to the usable stock of buildings and
structures. It is estimated that expenditures for
such purposes may reach a new high level of
$8,000,000,000 for 1948; this figure, largely because of inflated prices, surpasses the annual figures for total construction in the depression
period 1932-35. Wartime scarcity of labor and
materials created some backlog in maintenance
and repair work, but perhaps the most important explanation of the recent volume of expenditures is the high level of income and savings. Other contributing factors have been the
high costs and limited capacity of the new construction industry. Often it has been cheaper,
quicker, and more satisfactory to repair and
maintain existing structures than to buy or build
new ones.
NEW CONSTRUCTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES
,,800
MllLlO,., OF OOLl .os
Ill"
1,800
10000S Of' OOt.lARS
J.\
~!OTAl
' IV E STATES
1,600
1
\
l
1,200
1/
,.,000
-
/
i
I l\·
\.
:;;yo
I-"
400
r-- /
!-·--T·
""'T''' . ~';--',
/" 1
1
/
L ././.~
\
". \
.I
'£:::11
- I
~
I.
.
600
1
4.t
/4-,-r-'\ -\
800
20
/
\
I
" .
,,600
,,400
;'
;"
;"
,
-
eoo
/
.
TEUS.
600
400
.-.-.
__
O<LAHO.'--..,..
E:~~d:-.::~ ~-C:~~~~l:~~-L ~.-:"-,df~::~.
o
o
""
"...
"41
,,..,
"
..,
""
194~
1946
1947
200
..
o
"
SOU ACE$: D(PAItrME HT OF GOt.I"'ER~
O£PAR Tt.lE NT OF LABOR
.. ESTI MATEO
With generally full employment, record peacetime production, and nearly universal backlogs
of construction demand, most parts of the country have enjoyed a large volume of postwar construction activity. Nevertheless, such activity has varied from region to rcgion, with some areas experiencing more of the boom than others. Some of the reasons for these geographical differences are found
161
MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
in population trends, migration within and between regions and particularly to rapidly growing
cities, geographical shifts of industry, and regional variations in income. The Pacific Coast States and
the Southwest have enjoyed greater than average increases in population and income and have been
particularly attractive as centers of industrial expansion. Thus, Texas, with 4.9 percent of the United
States population in 1947, had 6.7 percent of the Nation's construction activity during the period
1939-47 and 7.3 percent during 1947, ranking second only to California in the latter year. In proportion to its population, Texas obtained 43.5 percent more than its share of the Nation's construction activity in 1939-47 and 47.2 percent more in 1947. Arizona had 56.7 percent more than her
TABLE V
NEW CONSTRUCTION BY TYPES IN TEXAS, 1939-48
(In millions or doUIU'3)
1939
1940
1941
Total new construction . . . .. . ... ...... $317.3 $357.9 $586.0
Private, total ............... . ... . . $199.4 $215 . 3 5281.1
Residential building .............
Nonresidential building ...... . . . .
Public utility .... ... . ......... ..
Fnrm ..
Public, total ........
96.2
41.3
48 .3
13.6
95.8
59.1
46.3
14.1
124.9
73.9
63.8
18.5
$117.9 $142.6 $304.9
1942
1943
19U
69.9
25.0
75 . 6
17 . 2
28.5
4.8
68.5
17.7
$855.2 $430.2
1946
1947
Jan ..Junc
1948
5352.8 $728.3
$1,019.5 $573.2
$164.6 $224.8 $595.2
5845 . 0 $464.6
$1,042.9 $549.7 5274.1
$187.7 $119.5
1945
42.5
24.5
84.5
13.1
50.4
91.5
71.3
11.6
258 .0
209.1
108.8
19 .3
$109 .5 $128.0 $133.1
Residential building ....... . .....
2.0
11.0
23.4
11.2
40.9
12.0
Nonresidential building ..........
38.4
21.4
55 .7
249 .8
129 .7
41.5
Military and naval. ........ . ....
8.5
42.8 157.3
518.0
179.4
13 .5
Highway and street ............. .
49.3
40.2
39.3
36.4
19.3
13.5
Conservation and development ....
9.3
12.2
12 . 6
16.2
29 .0
14.2
Other public .......... . . ... .....
10.4
15 .0
16 . 6
23.6
14.8
31.9
n. a.- Not available.
SOURCES: United States Department of Commerce; United States Department of Labor.
1.6
42.4
38.2
23.2
6.2
16.4
17.7
21.1
12.9
46.0
7.6
27 . 8
428.7
232.2
161. 7
22 .4
277.1
93.4
84.3
9.8
$174 . 5 $108 .6
5.3
31.3
9.2
88.3
13.7
26.7
n. n..
27.9
n. a.
n. a.
n. B.
n. a.
share in 1939-47 and 60.8 percent more in 1947. The five States comprising the Eleventh Federal
Reserve District reported 22.2 percent more than their share of construction activity in 1939-47 and
25.4 percent more than their share in 1947.
A partial explanation of this
disproportionately large volume
VALUE OF CONSTRUCTION CONTRACTS AWARDED IN THE UNITED
of construction in the Southwest
STATES, ELEVENTH FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT, TEXAS, AND
lies in the wartime construction
SELECTED CITIES, 1939-48
of military establishments and
(In thOIl.W1d! of doU.ra)
ordnance works and the large
Eleventh
United
DaU..
For~ Worth
Houston
San Antonio
Tena
Di8trict
Statal
wartime and postwar expansion of
1939
S 21,623 $ 8,383 $ 33,992 $14,784 $179,337 $199,110 $3,550,543
1940
28,740
7,338
37,489
18,021 253,852 273,692 4,003,957 facilities in the iron, steel, machin1941
30,815
25,497
51,502
27,416 397,738 453,843 6,007,474 ery, n~)llferrous metal, oil refining,
1942
19,750
35,362
81,524
84,264 838,233 914,205 8,255,061
1943
21,238
11,584 319,272 356,925 3,273,990 aircraft, shipyard, chemical, and
8,545
22,595
1944
10,242
12,851
30,304
10,221 159,856 178,224 1,994,016 rubber industries. The tendency
1945
25,873
16,996
SO,081
28,889 264,604 278,944 3,299,303
1946
36,021 140,387
91,514
40,821 533,509 564,394 7,489,722 toward industrial decentralization
1947
49,416 l14,017
109,168
50,408 624,155 681,131 7,759,868 has particularly favored the
1948
January
2,713
615,206 Southwest, while the expansion of
12,823
3,599
51,776
55,691
9,683
February
10,223
681,967 petroleum production has also
1,754
SO,765
5,931
72,345
19,137
March
11,495
4,749
6,524
4,005
44,856
56,601
689,763
April
7,818
873,882 been an important contributing
3,570
15,152
2,889
50,043
54,764
14,396
970,789 factor. The industrial expansion
3,764
May
31,184
3,806
85,753
90,666
June
2,380
935,198
9,254
17,038
3,532
56,485
60,588
July
2,724
16,875
962,685 of this area not only has required
10,503
68,098
75,970
3,494
J an.-July
21,654 115,593
76,512
27,256 429,356 475,045 5,729,490 a tremendous increase in facilities
but also has attracted many new
SOURCE: F. W. Dodge Corporation.
workers to the cities in the area.
As a result the demand for housing, stores, office buildings, public utility facilities, schools, and other
types of construction required to serve the added population has increased greatly.
TABLE VI
In 1947, the volume of new construction in the five States included in the Eleventh Federal
Reserve District amounted to $1,603,700,000 or more than 14 percent of the national total, as com-
162
MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
pared with 9 percent in 1939. Texas raised its share from 5.0 percent to 7.3 percent of the national
total during the period, as construction in 1947 rose to $1,019,500,000; in 1948, the Texas total may
reach $1,200,000,000. An unusually high proportion of Texas construction has been in the private
category-83 percent in 1947 and 81 percent in the first half of 1948.
The forces supporting a housing boom have been operating somewhat more strongly in Texas
than in most other parts of the United States. While the statistical picture is less complete for individual states than for the whole country, the figures indicate that Texas has ranked second only to
California in postwar residential building, and it is probable that nearly 10 percent of the estimated 950,000 new dwelling units
TABLE VII
to be built in the United States in
1948 may be in Texas. Residential
LARGE CONSTRUCTION CONTRACTS AWARDED IN TEXAS
building in Texas in 1947 in terms
JANUARY-JULY 1948
of dollar volume was 4.5 times as
Dat£ of
contract award Size (Dolla.rs)
County (and chief cities)
Type or project
great as in 1939 and 15 times as Brazos (Bryan) ....... .... .... . .... . .. Office building
February $1,000,000
great as in the war year 1943. Fur- Coke (Bronte, Robert Lee) ... . ..... . . . . Manufacturing plant July
2,000,000
thermore, in the first six months
January
4,233,000
of 1948, residential building in the Dallas (Dallas, Garland, Grand Prairie) .. Apartment
Office building
February
1,000,000
March
1,690,000
State was 76 percent above that
Science building
March
1,117,000
for the same period of 1947 and
Freight
station
Apartment
April
1,000,000
1,000,000
reached a record high of $154,Manufacturing plant April
May
3,000,000
h
d
Office building
·
400,000 dunng t e secon quarManufacturing plant May
2,000,000
June
2,500,000
ter of 1948. Most of the residenOffice building
May
1,365,000
tial building in Texas has taken EI Paso (EI Paso) ... .. . ... • .. . . ....... Grade crossing
the form of single family houses, Falls (Marlin) ....... . ................ Hospital
June
4,730,000
although in the large cities apart- Galveston (Galveston, Texas City) . ..... Street
June
1,000,000
ment projects rival the single Harris (Houston, Baytown) ............ Tunnel
February
6,500,000
family houses. Contract award
February
Apartment
2,125,000
February
School
2,000,000
data for the first seven months of
Apartment
February
1,291,000
1948 indicated that apartments,
February
Office building
1,000,000
Apartment
March
1,500,000
hotels, and dormitories valued at
Department store
2,000,000
Apr!!
Manufacturing plant Aprtl
$27,386,000 were to be built in
1,000,000
April
Store
1,000,000
Texas, with two apartment projMay
Two-family houses
7,300,000
Department store
May
6,000,000
ects in the Dallas area and three
May
Tunnel
4,000,000
in the Houston area valued at
May
Department store
2,000,000
School
May
2,000,000
more than $1,000,000 each.
Manufacturing plant June
6,000,000
July
School
1,637,000
Nonresidential building in
February
15,995,000
Texas since 1939 has reflected, Hill (Hillsboro) . . ..... . .• .• . •.•....... Dam and reservoir
first, the building of war plants Howard (Big Spring) . ........... . ..... Hospital
January
5,713,000
and, later, the postwar industrial Jasper (Jasper) and Tyler (Woodville) .. . Spillway
July
2,821,000
and commercial expansion of the Nueces (Corpus Christi) ............... School
January
3,263,000
Manufacturing plant May
region. The industrial facilities
2,000,000
for military production built in Smith (Tyler) ................. . . .. ... Dam
June
1,196,000
the Eleventh Federal Reserve Dis- Tarrant (Fort Worth) ... . ............. Office building
January
1,000,000
March
Grading
2,402,000
trict in 1940-44 were valued at
April
Religious blulding
1,500,000
$1,471,094,000, of which 77 perManufacturing plant May
1,500,000
cent were publicly financed. Tom Green (San Angelo) ... . . . . .. .. ... Dam and reservoir March
1,584,000
Texas received $1,371,379,000 of
SOURCE: F . W. Dodge Corporation.
such construction, including
facilities for many types of industry. Although it has not been practical to use all of these facilities since the end of the war, those that
have been used have contributed to the permanent industrial development of the area!
Postwar industrial construction in Texas has included a great variety of projects, such as oil
refineries, natural gas cycling plants, and a host of manufacturing plants which are contributing to
'For a discussion of the "Disposal and Utilization of War Mannfacturing Facilities in the Southwest," see the
Monthly Business Review, March 1, 1948.
MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
163
the diversification of economic activity in the State and region. New refineries scheduled for completion in 1948 or 1949 are under construction at Port Arthur, Brownsville, Baytown, Beaumont,
Houston, Corpus Christi, and Winnsboro. Other refinery projects are being planned or considered
at Big Spring and Sunray, while expansion of present facilities is under way or planned in numerous
locations throughout the State.
Natural gas processing plants are more frequently located near the source of their chief raw
material than is the case with petroleum refineries. Hence, the Southwest has a larger proportion of
the Nation's natural gas plants than of its petroleum refineries. Natural gas processing plants scheduled for completion in Texas in 1948 and 1949 include the largest construction project of this type
in the United States-the 220,000,000 cubic feet daily capacity cycling plant under way in the
Seeligson field-and a large cycling plant of 166,000,000 cubic feet capacity in Bee County. Large
gasoline plants include one of 13 0,000,000 cubic feet capacity at Kermit, one of 120,000,000 cubic
feet authorized at Alvin, and one of 100,000,000 cubic feet under way at Carthage. A 100,000,000
cubic feet absorption plant is under way at Winnie, while many other smaller projects are under
construction or planned in various parts of the State.
Construction contract award data indicate that the total volume of industrial building may
have passed its postwar peak in Texas as well as in the Nation. However, two contracts of at least
$1,000,000 each w~re awarded during the first seven months of 1948 for manufacturing plants in
the Dallas area, two in the Houston area, one in the Corpus Christi area, one in the Fort Worth area,
and one in the Bronte area. August awards add to this list an oil company shop building at Houston
and a tin processing plant at Texas City.
Commercial buildings have been particularly numerous among the building projects of over
$1,000,000 valuation for which contracts have been awarded in 1948 to date. During the first seven
months of the year, these contracts included three office buildings in Dallas and one each in Houston,
Fort Worth, and Bryan. There have been four department store and other large store contracts in
Houston. In August a large shopping center in Dallas was added to the list. Largely because of the
importance of pipe-line and gas utility construction, Texas has ranked first among the states in total
public utility construction every year from 1942 to 1947. In Texas, even more than in most other
states, there has been a shortage of utility facilities, with the result that the backlog of such construction is large.
Numerous pipe lines are under construction or planned in the Southwest. From west Texas fields
northeastward, the 516-mile crude oil line from Jal, New Mexico, to Cushing, Oklahoma, has been
built as far as Wichita Falls, using 20- and 22-inch pipe. Plans for the Slaughter, Texas-Drumright,
Oklahoma, 16-inch line have been revised to include 190 miles of pipe. The larger gas reserves now
estimated for west Texas have stimulated consideration of a 20- to 24-inch 1,000-mile pipe line to
the Los Angeles area. A 440-mile products pipe line will link Houston to Chicago via older lines.
Natural gas lines from the Southwest to the industrial Northeast will include a 992-mile 30-inch
line, while cons~ruction is in progress on a 1,584-mile 18-, 22-, and 24-inch line from the Texas
Panhandle. Plans are being made for numerous other large interstate and intrastate pipe lines.
In the extensive areas of the Southwest, highways are particularly important and street and road
expenditures are following the national trend. In the five States included in the Eleventh Federal
Reserve District highway and street construction totaled $151,300,000 in 1947, while in Texas such
construction amounted to $88,300,000, placing the State third in the Nation. At midsummer this
year, outstanding contracts in the State were over $100,000,000. The budget of the Texas Highway Department for the fiscal year 1948-49 (September-August) is $55,000,000, of which about
$24,000,000 will be spent for primary roads. Farm to market roads will account for $16,500,000
in 1948-49, with $20,000,000 in prospect for 1949-50. About 4,300 miles of farm to market roads
have been completed or placed under contract in Texas since V -J Day. This has involved about 800
projects located in practically every county of the State. The importance of such farm to market
roads is indicated by the fact that in the United States 65 percent of all livestock goes to market by
truck, as does 93 percent of live poultry, 42 percent of vegetables, 66 percent of milk, and 52 percent of eggs. Major cities in Texas may spend as much as $40,000,000 on streets and roads in 1949,
while expenditures for the State may reach $100,000,000.
164
MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
The highway budget of Arizona for the fiscal year 1'948 is about $23,000,000, or more
twice the amount of highway expenditures in the State in 1947. In New Mexico the budget is
wise considerably above the 1947 level. In these States and throughout the entire Southwest,
more highway construction would be undertaken if sufficient men, materials, and finances
available.
than
likeeven
were
Military and naval construction was unimportant in Texas prior to World War II, but during
the peak of war construction in 1942 Texas had over 10 percent of the national total and such construction amounted to practically half of all construction in the State in that year. Texas ranked first
in this type of construction in 1942 but was second to California for the war period as a whole.
Military and naval construction in Texas since September 1939 has totaled over $1,000,000,000, or
slightly more than all that has ever been spent on Texas highways. If war housing, war plants, and
all other construction necessitated by war were added to this total, expenditures in Texas for 1940-45
would amount to about $2,400,000,000. The effects of such construction activity and expenditures
are far-reaching and lasting, even though such construction activity has practically ceased. By 1947,
military and naval construction in the State had dropped to a peacetime normal of under 1 percent
of all new construction, and the $14,500,000 of Army and Navy construction planned for Texas
in 1949 is less than 3 percent of the wartime peak.
Such public construction as schools, hospitals, other public buildings, and sewer and water works
is especially important in Texas for much the same reasons that residential building is important to
the State. Texas is overcoming her backlog of such construction as rapidly as the tight building situation and State and local government budgets permit. During the first eight months of 1948, contracts were awarded for $ 56,000,000 of educational buildings, $19,000,000 of hospital and institutional buildings, and $21,000,000 of sewer and water construction. Estimates for 1949 are $36,000,000 or more for educational buildings, $25,000,000 for hospitals, and $33,000,000 for water and
sewer construction.
While conservation and development projects have represented only from 1 to 5 percent of all
Texas construction during the last nine years, such projects have considerable value from the longrun viewpoint. Contracts for irrigation and drainage projects, channels, canals, and dams totaled
$25,671,000 for the fust eight months of 1948, with the estimate for 1949 being $34,900,000. Much
of this type of construction can be deferred until needed to maintain cons'truction employment.
Although crude petroleum and natural gas drilling are not usually classified as construction,
they involve similar methods to those used in tunneling and pile driving. In 1947, the cost of drilling, plus the cost of casing but excluding the cost of production equipment, amounted in dollar
volume to 24 percent of the value of all new construction activity in the five Stat~ of the Eleventh
District. This percentage
TABLE VIII
was 23 in Texas, 28 in
Oklahoma, 30 in New CONSTRUCTION EXPENDITURES FOR CRUDE PETROLEUM AND NATURAL GAS
WELL DRILLING. FOR THE UNITED STATES AND SELECTED STATES. 1939-47
Mexico, and 37 in Louisiana. The corresponding
(In thOU:!Iand! of dollars)
Total
Total
figure for the United
Year
Arizona
Louisiana.
Oklahoma
Texa.8
5 Stat&
Other states United Sta.tes
New Mexico
$ 17
$43,699
$12,802
$20,948
$140,284 $217,750 $148,398 $366,148
States was only 5.5 per- 1939
1940
12,11 4
148,856
166,239
55,355
18,227
234,552
400,791
cent. Consequently, if oil 1941
166,314
21 ,330
177,091
50,214
7,757
245,6 15
422,706
128
1942
8,205
16,465
100 554
143,672
34,646
159,998
303,670
and gas drilling were con- 1943
228
20,022
138,928
206,214
345,142
29,453
6,749
82:476
1944
268
40,650
30,971
242,374
281,790
524,164
11,456
159,029
sidered as construction, the
120
55",1 23
12,078
188,092
1945
295,622
40,209
302,535
598,157
relatively high rate of con- 1946
207,532
108
61,799
13,776
46,476
320,331
650,022
329,691
70,507
20,276
238,074
377,653
62,290
1947
391,147
768,800
struction in the Southwest
would be even higher.
SOURCE: United States Department uf Com merce,
The oil and gas industry, of course, also contributes to construction activity of the usual type. Thus, pipe lines, refineries,
and other construction related to the movement, processing, and utilization of oil and gas add to
MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
165
the volume of construction. In addition, housing, commercial building, and other construction are
required and paid for largely because of the presence of the oil and gas industry. Since the industry
is expanding and has favorable prospects in the visible future, it should continue to make an important contribution directly and indirectly to construction volume in the Southwest.
The future prospects of the construction industry in the Southwest depend largely on the same
demand and supply factors which affect the construction outlook for the United States, although
regional differences suggest a somewhat more favorable construction outlook for the Southwest than
for some other areas of the CoUll try.
Nationally, the existence of a very strong construction demand is indicated by such factors as
the huge backlogs in heavy engineering-type projects, housing, and public utility and other construction. It may be noted that this huge backlog of unsatisfied demand should be expected at the
present stage of the cycle, especially since the wartime restrictions delayed the construction boom
predicted for the early 1940's. Moreover, the backlog of need is supported by a large accumulation of
wartime savings, and the tendency to spend these savings on housing and industrial and business construction has been increased by the high and rising postwar national income. Additional factors increasing the strength of demand are the depreciation and obsolescence of existing houses and structures, most
of which were constructed in the 1920's or earlier; an increase of nearly 20 percent in population and
an even larger increase in the number of families since the end of the last real construction boom; and
the wartime and postwar migration from farm to city, from east to west, and from north to south. The
surplus of houses in areas which have lost population does not relieve the situation in the shortage areas.
In addition to these material and social factors, the easy availability of mortgage credit has made the
existing demand more effective. Mortgage credit cannot be regarded merely as a passive factor, for it
has increased much faster tllan the physical quantity of all mortgageable real estate. Thus, the demand
today, as at the end of the war, is at a record level, while the construction industry has only recently
reached the point at which it can appreciably reduce the backlog.
The supply side of the construction picture is far less impressive. The Nation" s fully employed
construction capacity can increase only gradually from now on, with future new output records
likely to be more striking in terms of inflated dollars than in terms of physical volume. There is, however, a very serious danger in the inadequacy of construction output as compared to demand. The
limited capacity of the industry when faced with a tremendous demand has contributed to rising prices
for real estate and rising costs of COI1struction. This high level of construction costs is, in turn, the
greatest single factor of weakness in the pre~ent construction situation. The prices of new houses in the
United States rose about 20 percent from mid-1947 to mid-1948, while incomes increased only 8 percent, with the result that some residential as well as industrial and public construction was priced out
of the market. The existing backlog of demand and purchasing power obviously cannot buy as many
houses and other construction products at high prices as at low prices. A decline in construction costs
and prices would allow existing purchasing power to be spread over a larger number of houses, buildings, and other structures, with the result that the construction industry would be kept at full production and less subject to fluctuation for a longer period. A recession of the prewar type might effect
such a reduction in costs, or, during the next year or so, defense expenditures, financial aid to other
countries, and other factors might maintain general business activity at close to current levels, with
the consequence that high costs might induce a more gradual falling off of demand in the construction
market, resulting in some corrective reduction in construction costs.
In view of the behavior of construction costs in the presence of excessive demand, it is difficult
to classify as preponderantly favorable or unfavorable the recent easing of credit terms to home
buyers. Amendments to the National Housing Act and the Servicemen's Readjustment Act now
encourage loans to individual owners up to 90 percent of appraised values under $7,000 and up to
80 percent for values up to $11,000. Rental housing projects also receive more liberal credit treatment. There are doubts whether such easing of credit can add to a construction output which is already
at capacity levels.
166
MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
With the basic strength of the national construction picture, the prospects for the Southwest
are also favorable; in fact, it appears that construction prospects in the Southwest are further
improved by a number of special factors. Many manufacturers want to place at least part of their
productive capacity in or near the southwestern market, particularly since the population and
income of the region are increasing faster than for the Nation as a whole. The rise in freight rates
also has somewhat increased the advantages of producing in or near the southwestern market in the
case of industries using raw materials obtainable in the region or shipped in at relatively low rates
and in the case of industries whose finished products are shipped at high rates to markets in the
Southwest. The Supreme Court decision outlawing the basing point system may result in giving
southwestern producers a somewhat larger proportion of the southwestern market for cement, steel,
and perhaps other products, thereby, potentially at least, inducing additional industrial expansion.
National defense considerations also favor industrialization of the Southwest, and it is expected that
the $6,000,000,000 in defense contracts to be placed in 1949 will be widely distributed geographically. Further incentives to national industrial decentralization and to the resulting greater industrialization of the Southwest lie in the improved human relations and worker morale in less congested areas, the public relations value of being a local employer in important local market areas,
and access to the new reservoirs of labor available in less industrialized areas. All of these factors are
made more effective by the large wartime and postwar accumulations of capital, which permit investments in new locations.
Additional factors particularly attracting industry to the Southwest include the large supply
of cheap natural gas for fuel and raw materials, the large supplies of petroleum, sulphur, and agricultural products requiring processing or suitable for industrial raw materials, the continued improvement of the great ports of the Southwest, and the accumulation within the Southwest itself of
capital for industrial investment as the result of high incomes from agriculture, petroleum, and ocher
industries. Industrialization is itself the cause of further industrialization, with each new plant tending to attract others to serve it or to buy from it. Thus, industrial construction in the Southwest
would seem to have a generally bright future despite the recent falling off of such construction from
postwar peak levels. Associated with such expansion of industrial facilities is the construction of many
houses and apartments and various commercial, utility, public, and other types of buildings required
in a more industrialized economy.
For these reasons, construction may be expected to continue to account for a larger proportion
of all productive activity in the Southwest than in the United States as a whole. Furthermore, the
construction boom in the Southwest may last somewhat longer than in the more industrialized parts
of the country. With the present backlog of construction demand, the national total ·of construction activity should be maintained at comparatively high levels until at least the early 1950's, with,
of course, the possibility of some temporary recessions due to construction cost and price readjustments or to economic adjustments in other sectors of the economy. Since the construction industry
in the Southwest may be expected to surpass the national average, the economy of the Southwest
should enjoy a sizable economic stimulus from construction activity for an extended period of time.
167
MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
Review of Business. Industrial. Agricultural. and Financial Conditions
DISTRICT SUMMARY
Reflecting the effects of the intense heat and dry weather,
the September 1 forecast of the Department of Agriculture revised downward the prospective production of principal crops
in the Eleventh District. It is now evident that production of
many crops in elus District will fall short of last year's harvest,
a condition in contrast with the situation in the United States.
This fact will tend to intensify the effect of declines in the
prices of agricultural products upon the income of many of the
District's farmers. Unfavorable weather also caused a marked
deterioration in livestock ranges in many parts of the District
and contributed to an increase in livestock marketings.
Daily average production of crude petroleum increased
slightly in August but was below the all-time peak reached in
June. Refinery operations declined during August but were
about 13 percent higher than a year ago. Oil well completions
increased to exceed those of August last year by a substantial
margin.
The value of construction activity in the District in August
increased 4 percent above the July level and was 11 percent
above the August 1947 figure. Awards for residential building
increased 28 percent from July to August and were 24 percent
above the level of the comparable month last year.
Departmen t store sales increased by a smaller amount than
is usual in August, and the year-to-year increase was narrowed
to 12 percent from 15 percent in July. Furruture store sales increased 15 percent in August as compared with July and were
23 percent larger than in August last year. The accelerated buying at furruture stores probably reflected to some degree efforts
to acquire merchandise before the re-establishment of consumer
installment credit control which became effective September 20.
Commercial, industrial, and agricultural loans, real-estate
loans, and "all other" loans, including those of a consumer type,
showed increases during the five-week period ended September
15 at selected member banks in leading cities of the District.
Likewise, deposits of individuals, partnerships, and corporations
showed an increase of more than $76,000,000 during the period ,
while holdings of investments reflected a moderate decline. Bank
debits were slightly lower than during July, but considerably
above the level of August 1947.
BUSINESS
Reflecting increased deliveries of fall merchandise during August, inventories at reporting department stores showed a gain
over the preceding month for the first time since April and were
6 percent larger than in July. The substantial increase of 30
percent in stocks from August 1947, the largest year-to-year
gain for any month in 1948, may reflect in part prompt merchandise deliveries and sales smaller than had been anticipated.
\'{ith orders for fall merchandise virtually completed and deliveries being effected prompdy, outstanding orders at the close
of August were 11 percent smaller than a month earlier and 17
percent below those in August 1947. Reflecting the marked improvement in deliveries of merchandise and the caution expressed toward placing orders too far in advance, orders outstanding during the spring and early summer this year were
only slighdy larger than in the corresponding months of 1947
ond during more recent months have shown a decline from the
comparable 1947 periods.
WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE STATISTICS
Number
of
reporting
Retail trade:
DCPBrtml'nt. atores:
Total 11th Dist.... .
Cor~8 Christi ... . .
Dn1
....... ...••
Fort Worth ........
Houst.on ... ; ...... .
SnD Anlonio . .. ....
Sbreveport. La.... .
Other cities . . ......
Furniture
•
4
7
4
7
6
3
18
Port Arthur .. .....
43
4
5
3
t:ao Antonio •......
4
Da.Ias ...... .... ..
IJo:1ston . ....•.•.• •
23
Drup .... .....•...
Dry go~ ... .. •.••
Groceries .... . . .. ..
Hardware ........ .
Tobacco d: products.
6
4
33
7
10
14
64
87
13
13
7
18
11
5
8
14
24
29
39
18
Who:asafe trade:·
-2
•
2
-I
9
3
'7
18
-3
5
27
12
10
9
- 1
5
-7
t
-3
'Compiled by United States Bureau of Cen.!lUl. (Wholesale trade figures preliminary.)
tBtocks at end of month.
tID.dicates change less tban one-half of one percent.
DrDEXES OF DEPARTME~T STORE B.ILES AND STOCKS
Daily average salea-(1 935-39-100)
Uoadj ustcd •
11th District.
Dalbs ......
The seasonally adjusted monthly sales index, reflecting a
smaller than usual increase in August, declined to 419 percent
of the 1935-39 average from the 436 percent of the previous
month, but continued substantiaIly above the 376 percent of
August 1947.
48
a~cres:
Totailltb Din... ..
Houston .....
The 10 percent increase in the dollar volume of sales at reporting department stores in this District in August as compared
with July was less than the usual seasonal amount, indicating
that back-to-school and other fall buying may have been slower
than usual for this period. The August volume was 12 percent
above the level of the corresponding month of 1947, and cumulative sales for the eight months were maintained at 12 percent
above those of last year. Preliminary reports from department
stores for the first two weeks of September indicate that District sales are running 20 percent ahead of the comparable 1947
period.
firllls
Percentage change in
Net 8.'llcs
Stock! I
8 mo . 1948
August. 1948 from
August! 948 from
August
July
compo with
August
July
1948
8 mo. 1947
1947
1047
1948
12
10
12
30
6
1
I
-I
16
6
21
7
8
10
32
7
6
1
27
63
8
29
6
18
10
19
H
6
-1
21
17
7
7
7
6
U
August
July
1948
36.\
333
426
1948
331
287
407
June
1948
345
293
420
Adjusted
August
1947
327
308
330,
Augus;
1948
419
391
484
July
1948
436
399
503
June
1948
406
358
483
August
1947
376
362
375r
Stocks-(1036-30-100)
AugUtlt
Iltb District.
1048
410
Unadjusted'
July
June
1948
387r
1948
384
'Unadjusted Cor se&I!Ionai variatiOD.
August
1947
318
August
1948
3ij3
Adjusted
July
June
1948
1948
358
306
August.
1947
282
r-Rel'ised .
The rates of collections on both open accounts and installment
accounts in August were again at the lowest levels previously
recorded during the postwar period. The ratio of collections
during August to regular accounts outstanding at the beginning
of the month felI to the previous 1948 low of 51 percent reached
in February and compares with the July level of 53 percent and
a 1947 low of 52 percent reported in August of that year. The
ratio of colIections to installment accounts was sustained at 18
percent, the postwar low at which it had been maintained dur-
168
MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
ing the previous two months, and compares with a ratio of 29
percent in August 1947. At the same time, the ratio of cash sales
to total sales continued to decline and in August was 34 percent,
compared with 36 percent in July and 39 percent in the previous
August.
TI,e dollar volume of August sales of reporting furniture
stores in the District increased 14 percent from the July level
and was 23 percent larger than during the previous August. The
increase in August sales over July was the second largest monthto-month increase this year, and the increase from August of
last year was the largest year-to-year gain in volume of sales for
any month this year. The dollar volume of cash sales was 2 percent above the July level but 14 percent below that of August
1947. Credit sales, however, after having fallen 11 percent in
July as compared with June, rose 16 percent above the July
level in August and were 31 percent higher than in August
1947. As a result of the increase in credit sales and stability in
cash sales, the ratio of credit sales to total sales in August rose
to 88 percent from 86 percent in the previous month and compares with 82 percent in August of last year. While credit sales
increased during August, collections remained at the level of the
previous month but were 16 percent greater than in August
1947. Since credit sales increased during August and collections
did not, accounts receivable outstanding at the end of the
month were 5 percent larger than at the end of July. Total
credit sales this year have shown increases over the corresponding 1947 period each month except February, the largest increase being in August. Accompanying the gain in credit sales
has been a marked rise in accounts receivable, the amount in
August being 58 percent larger than a year ago. The acceleration in credit buying at furniture stores during August probably
resulted from the desire to complete arrangements for lower
down payments and longer contract maturities before the new
credit regulations became effec tive under Regulation Won September 20.
Dollar volume of inventories in August was reported by
District furniture stores to be 2 percent above the level of the
previous month, after having declined for three consecutive
months, and was 6 percent above that of August 1947. This
would seem to indicate tbt furniture store executives are seeking to reach and maintain a level at which stocks are in line
with sales.
Population Changes in the Southwest
A comparison of changes in civilian population between 1940
and 1947 in the fi ve States lying wholly or partly in the Eleventh
Federa l Reserve District reveals divergent trends.
In 1940 and in 1947, the five-state area, comprising Arizona,
Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas, accounted for
approximately 9.2 percent of the Nation's population, according
to recent estimates of the United States Bureau of the Census;
however, sign ificant shifts in population occurred during that
period within the five-state arca. Be.tween 1940 and 1947, the
population of Arizona increased 28 percent, a rate more than
three times greater than the 8.6 percent increase for the Nation.
Texas, with a population increase of 10 percent, also exceeded
the average rate of growth for the United States; Louisiana and
New Mexico experienced population increases, but the percentage gains were smaller than the average for the country,
and in the case of Ncw Mexico, the percentage gain was substantially less than that of the five-state area. On the other hand,
Oklahoma experienced a decline of 2.5 percent in its civilian
popu lation. \Vhile each of the five States had an increase of
births over deaths, Arizona was the only State of the group to
realize a net in-migration during the period. The net out-migration from Oklahoma was so large that it exceeded the net
natural increase in population and was the chief factor causing
a loss of 58,000 in total civilian population in that State between
1940 and 1947.
It is interesting to note some of the changes in per capita
income in relation to population changes in the various States
in this region between 1940 and 1947. Arizona, with the largest
percentage increase in population during the period, had the
smallest percentage increase in per capita income, 137 percent,
according to recent reports by the United States Department of
Commerce. Conversely, New Mexico, with the smallest percentage increase in population (exclusive of the actual decline
in Oklahoma), realized the largest percentage increase in per
capita income, 196 percent. In 1940 and again in 1947, the
per capita incomes of Arizona and Texas led the group, although
their positions were reversed. The 1940 per capita income in
Arizona was almost 15 percent larger than in Texas, but by
1947 the per capita income in Texas was 1 percent above that
in Arizona, as Texas showed an increase of 173 percent during
that period.
CHA..'iGES IN CIVILIAN POPULATION BY STATES FROM 1910 TO 1917·
(Thousands of persons)
Percentage change
Civilian population
Net natural
Net 1088 to
Net change in
Civilian population rrom Aprill, 1940
Aprill,lQ40
increase
Net migration
armed £orcee
civiliall population
July], 1947
to July I, 1947
Arizona.. .
497,864
71,000
76 ,000
8,000
139,000
637,000
28 .0
Louisiana .....
2,369,349
318,000
- 119.000
23,000
176.000
2.535,000
7.5
New Mexico . ...... ........
631,185
90,000
- 76,000
7,000
6,000
538,000
1.2
Oklahoma ... .............
...........
2,332,800
243,000
-2SO.000
22.000
- 58.000
2,275,000
- 2 .6
T..... ....
..........................
6,389,349
844.000
-141).000
63.000
641.000
7,030.000
10 .0
Total fivHtatearea ..
.............
12,1 11,147
1,566,000
539,000
123.000
004,000
13.015.000
7.5
Total Uoited Stat..
.............
131,41)1.985
11.738,000
1,016.000
1,496.000
11,258.000
142.660,000
8.6
tEstimates are rounded to the nearest thousand without beillg adjusted to group totals, whicb are independently rounded. Derived figures are baaed 00 the unrounded absolute numbers.
SOURCE: United States Bureau or the Census.
AGRICULTURE
TIle hot, dry weather during August was responsible for declines in the indicated production of cotton, sorghum grain,
rice, hay, sweet potatoes, and peanuts in Texas; moreover, prospective per acre yields of most crops are lower than in 1947.
Moderate to substantial production declines are forecast for all
important crops except rye, flaxseed, and sorghum grain. The
decline in over-all agricultural production in Texas is in striking
contrast to the record physical volume of crop production expected for the United States. The Nation's production of feed
grains is expected to exceed previous records by a substantial
margin, the production of food guins is the second largest on
record, and oil seed production lllay reach a new high, along
with large production of fruits and vegetables. Record production is in prospect for corn, soybeans, rice, peanuts, and pecans,
while near-record production is indicated for wheat, oats,
sorghum grain, fl axseed, and dry beans.
Although the unfavorable weather conditions during August
caused crop losses, some of the late crops were benefited by rains
in September. Harvesting operations were well advanced at midmonth, despite occasional interruption by showers. Planting of
winter commercial vegetables was delayed by the August heat
and drought, but September rains have been beneficial to farm
operations and growing crops. Range and pasture feed have been
169
MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
deficient in most areas of the Eleventh District during the summer, except in certain northern Panhandle counties of Texas.
Livestock are in fair to poor flesh generally, despite supplemental
feeding in some areas, and marketing of livestock during August was relatively heavy because of range feed shortages.
A United States cotton crop of 15,219,000 bales forecast on
September 1 represents an increase of 50,000 bales over the forecast made a month earlier and is more than one-fourth above
the 1947 crop and the 10-year (1937-46) average. The Texas
crop, estimated at 3,300,000 bales, is 200,000 bales below the
August 1 estimate and slightly below the 1947 crop but is 14
percent above average. It is estimated that 2.2 percent of the
Texas cotton acreage in cultivation on July 1 has been abandoned, leaving 8,998,000 acres for harvest. TI,e better-thanaverage yield of 176 pounds of lint per acre forecast for the
TEXAS COTTON PRODUCTION BY CROP REPORTING DISTRICTS
(In thOUSBUda of bales":""'500 lb. gross '1ft.)
Crop
indicated
September 1
1948 as
percent
of 1947
113
32
315
129
293
160
800
500
17
710
185
145
28
270
155
330
152
85
101
113
88
100
128
88
86
120
113
3,437
3,300
96
1948
I'ClX'rting
districta
1945
15
lOS
380
17
587
11 9
1947
lOS
946
'94
15
810
27
227
166
131
1946
35
198
270
14
482
96
99
15
185
46
229
1,794
1,669
l·N .... _, ..•. , ..... .. .
1-8 ..........•.•..
2.
3.
4
5 ..
6.
7
. ..........
8 ........ .....
9 ..
80
10.
State ..
.............
ISO
State compares with an estimated yield of 313 pounds for the
Nation. Cotton harvesting was virtua: ly completed in southern
and southcentral counties of T eXlS about mid-September, and
many farmers were destroying stalks for insect control. Harvesting was progressing rapidly in other parts of the State, despite. occasional interruption by showers. The September 1
forecast of a 725,000 bale crop in Louisiana is 25,000 bales
larger than the August 1 estimate and 44 percent above last
year's crop. A production of 350,000 bales was forecast for
Oklahoma, compared with a crop of 330,000 bales in 1947. A
record crop of 245,000 bales is forecast for New Mexico, and
near-record production of 300,000 bales is in prospect for AriZona.
CllOP l'RODUCTJON-(In thousand. 01 bushel.)
- - - - Texaa
Average
193H6
1947
Winter whCllt..... ...
45,686
Corn. .. .
0...................
70.'22
34,370
4,049
2.894
1,383
4.311
6.121
Barley ..............
Cottoll t. ..... .... .. .
All hayt ...........
Potato.., I,..h. . ....
CASH FARM I)lCOME BY MAJOR INCOME GROUPS FOR TilE STATF.9 OF TITF.
ELEVENTH FEDEIlAL RESERVE D1 STllICT, 1947 cmlPARED WITH 1946
(In thousands of doUars)
Livestock and
livestock
Government
Crops
products
payments
A,i.ona ................ 1947 $ 119,974
$ 71.868
$ 2.165
1946
102,955
58,796
3,153
", 1947
222,289
107,434
9,079
Louisiana.
1946
172,732
82,725
11,795
UI47
74,664
102,262
3,689
New :Mexico..
1946
60,103
93,041
3,913
OkL,homa. . . .
.1947
314,2OS
336,200
8,467
277,'\18
16.873
1946
233,260
Texas......
. .. . 1947
1,140,993
80[,549
23 ,9 14
19'6
706,218
675,689
38,502
Five Stat" ... ....... . . . 1947 ",872,125
$1,418,403
$47,314
1946 $1,265,268
$1,187,749
$74,236
SOURCE: United States Department of Agricultu~. Bureau of Agricultural
Total farm
income
$ 194,007
164,004
338,802
267,252
180,615
147,OS7
657,962
527,631
1,966,456
1,420,409
$3,337,842
52.527,253
EconomiaJ.
The Texas rice production forecast on September I was
23,092,000 bushels, compared with the record crop of 23,700,000 bushels harvested last year. The 502,000 acre crop this
year is 6 percent above the acreage harvested last year, while the
prospective yield is estimated at 46 bushels per acre, down four
bushels from last year and slightly below the 10-year average.
The production of sweet potatoes in Texas was forecast on
September 1 at 3,995,000 bushels, which is slightly lower than
the previous estimate and considerably below the 10-year average of 5,121,000 bushels. Peanut production, placed at 334,050,000 pounds, falls short of last year's crop of 351,120,000
pounds. A near-record production of 44,250,000 pounds of
pecans is more than double last year's crop and 65 percent above
average. Production forecasts for Irish potatoes and broomcorn
were unchanged from a month earlier.
Rains received in the Lower Rio Grande Valley during the
first half of September greatly benefited growing tomatoes and
peppers, and all planting and transplanting operations were expedited by the improved moisture conditions. At mid-month,
early planted tomatoes in the Lower Valley counties were blooming, while the crop in the Eagle Pass district was irregular but
showing inlprovement. Conditions were favorable for tomatoes
and peppers in the Winter Garden area, and planting of vegetables in the Corpus Christi area was awaiting the drying of
fields. Harvesting operations at mid-September were limited
principally to cantaloupes in the Trans-Pecos area, watermelons
from the Gray County arca in the northern Panhandle, and
potatoes in the Hereford-Plainview area, all of which were
nearing completion.
States in Eleventh District·_
Estimated
Average
124,270
M,169
113,001-
48,592
31,248
2,620
3,437
47.566
14,734
2,370
3,300
123,899
65.166
12,1204,348
1,436
1,319
4,271
4,714
4,7043
4,636
4,400
9,978
9,260
8,760
Sept. I, 1948 1937-46
Estimated
1947
Sept. I, 1948
238,71Z159.60287,664
101,7'6
69,006
'0,008
9,23011,2134,685
4,920
Potal.octl, swcct ....
4,676
3,99.5
14,366'"
12,566':'
11,683'"
Rice .. " ... ,.".", 16.688
23.700
23.092
36,991 0
45.155 0
44 ,9670
• Figuree are combined totals for five States lying wholly or partly ill the Ekvcuth Fcdcml
RCllerve District: Texas, Arizona, Louisiana, New Mexico, and Oklahofllll.
t Ill Lhou ~U\ds of
hales. tIll thousands or tonR. -Arizona, New Merico, OkL1.homa, aud Texas. ':'Louisi:nm,
Oklahoma, Slid Texa!!.
cLouislana. and Texas.
SOURCE: Llliloo State:! Department of Agriculture.
Although the September 1 estimate of Texas corn yield per
acre is slightly above Jast year's yield and one bushel above average, the 47,566,000 bushel crop in prospect is slightly below
the 1947 crop and 'about one-third below average because of the
greatly reduced acreage. Production of sorghum grain in the
State, which was forecast at 82,478,000 bushels, is much below
the August 1 forecast but compares favorably with the crop
harvested last year and the 1O-year a verage. The estimated yield
of 17.5 bushels compares with 18 bushels produced last year
and an averlge of 16.6 bushels.
CASH RECEIPTS FROM FARM MARKETINGS
(In thou&.'\nds of dollars)
May 1948
State
Arizona •. , . .
Loui8iana .... ..
New Mexico .. ,
Oklahoma
Tel:as ..
May
Cumulative ~ceipta
1947
--January 1 to May 31---..
1948
1947
$ 82,145 I 01,363
114,042
96,4A7
50,433
48,665
274,44A
184,807
676,656
678.919
Crops
Livestock
Total
Total
$ 6,602
13,OS8
1,135
9,255
43,472
$ 7,984
7,157
7.121
260543
93,248
I 14.586
I 12.396
20,216
8.256
34,798
136,720
13.616
7,413
27.985
116,433
Total. ........ 173,522
"41,053 1214,576 1171,8'3 11,110,346
SOURCE: United States Dcpmlmcnt of Agriculture.
",187,919
CASH RECEIPTS FROM FARM MARKETINGS
(In thousands of dollars)
June
June 1048
State
Arizona .....
Louisiana .. , ..
Ko ....• Mexico.
Oklahoma .
Texas
TCJtaL
Livestock
Crops
$ 15,024 $ 5,093
5,627
8,9'1
1,750
4,'30
71,244
38,277
53,562
94.826
..... UI7,207
$151,617
Tolal
S 20,117
14,568
6.230
109.521
148.3gB
$298,824
SOURCE: Voitel StatcJ D~pJ. rtwcut. of Agricult!Jro.
Cumubtive reeeipts
1947 .....--January 1 to June 3{)--..
1948
1947
Total
102.262
91,M3
$ 17,292
96,487
128,610
12.026
56,663
48,965
6,744
294,328
274,448
106,562
827.307
676,6.'"..
176,657
$319,281 St,401J,I10
SI.t87,910
170
MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
Range and pasture feed showed some improvement in eastern,
central, and southern areas of the District during the first part
of September following general rains which effectively broke
droughty conditions and started some new grass . In the northern
Panhandle counties of Texas, where showers were received
during August, grass is supplying excellent grazing. In the
western part of the District, dry grass is short and rain is urgently needed to start new range feed. Some supplemental feeding was being carried on in central and western parts of Texas
during the first part of September. Prospects are good for fall
and winter wheat pastures, as a limited acreage of wheat was
seeded in the northern High Plains in early September and seeding was expected to get under way on a large scale there and
in the Edwords Plateau areas after mid-September.
Cattle in the northern Plains counties of Texas, where
range feed was generally abundant, were in good condition early
in September. In some eastern, central, and southern counties of
Texas where dry f eed was very short, cattle have shown considerable shrinkage despite supplemental feeding. Elsewhere, cattle were holding flesh fairly well on cured grass. Demand for
stocker cattle continues very strong, and contracting of this
year's calf crop was fairly active around mid-September. Sheep
and lambs in Texas were in only fair flesh in parts of the plateau
country and in poor flesh in much of the Trans-Pecos area at
mid-September. It is expected that if rains come soon there
will be a strong demand for ewes and new lambs for replacements. Also, if the present winter wheat prospects materialize,
lambs will be in very strong demand for grazing.
LIVESTOCK RECEIPTS-{Number)
- - - F o rt Worth,- -- _ - - San Antonio - - _
August
August
July
August
August
July
19'8
89.247
31,086
Hop ...•.... ... ......... 32,928
Sheep .................. . 165,828
19.7
70.561
46,276
30,300
102,291
1948
69.831
22,799
37,863
124,602
1948
3Q.238
3!,616
7,625
98,571
1941
29.620
20,026
5,204
SO,014
1948
26,520
17,914
0,862
54,599
Cattle ...
Calves •........
COMPARATIVE TOP LIVESTOCK
(Dollars per hundredweight)
_ - - F o r t Worth
Augus~
August
July
Claos
1948
1947
1948
Bed steers .. , .. .
133 .60
125 ,00
135.00
Stocker steers .... . . .
31.00
22,00
28.SO
Hcifcl"9 and yearlings.
33,60
25.00
35,00
23,60
18.00
Butcher cows.
24 .50
C~lves ................ .
2'.00
32.60
28,00
Hogs ................ .
30,00
28,10
28,76
Lambo ,
29,00
24,00
31.60
PRICES
August
1948
128,00
28,05
27,00
24.00
28.SO
28 ,25
27,00
San Antonio - - August
July
1947
1948
12'.00
132.00
27,76
21.60
24,60
30,26
11 .50
25.00
24,00
32.60
27,SO
29,00
21.76
26,60
Livestock marketing in T exas feli to a low level during July,
as. rains over most of the grazing areas of the State gave promise
of an improvement in the supply of grass and range feed. However, the drought of August caused livestock raisers to market
in very large volume, raising receipts at the Fort Worth and
San Antonio markets 38 percent over July and 41 percent over
August 1947, As sheep ranges suffered the severest drought
damage, receipts of sheep and lambs at these markets during
August rose 74 percent over the same month last year and,
contrary to the usual seasonal change, rose 48 percent over July.
Cattle and hog receipts were up 28 percent and 14 percent,
respectively, over August of last year, while calf receipts were
down about 1 percent.
The mid-month price report of the United States Department
of Agriculture indicates that prices received by farmers for
most crops and livestock declined during the month ended
August 15. Declines in prices received for all grains, hay, cotton and wool were continuations of trends eviden t in previous
months. Cottonseed, after advancing steadily for four months,
declined substantially, Moderate declines occurred in prices received for beef cattle, veal calves, and lambs, while hog price.,
continuing the upward trend of the previous four months, made
a slight increase. Spot commodity quotations reveal that from
August 15 to mid-September, prices received for cotton, grains,
and most classes of livestock fluctuated within very narrow
margins,
FINANCE
Among the principal changes in the condition of selected
member banks in leading cities of the Eleventh Federal Reserve
District during the five-week period ended Sptember 15 were
increases in most of the major loan and deposit classifications
and a moderate decline in total investments.
Total loans of these banks amounted to $1,046,089,000 on
September 15, or $1 5,017,000 more than the amount reported
on August 11 and over $18 4,000,000 above the total outstanding approximately One year ago. Commercial, industrial, and
agricultural loans followed an irregular pattern during the fiveweek period, rising between August II and August 25 by $5,975,000 and then declining during the last week in August and
the first week in September, During the week ended September
15, however, the volume turned upward again, as these loans
increased by $3 ,818,000, Real-estate loans increased during the
five-week period by $2,133,000, continuing the steady increase
that has characterized the movement of this classification of
loans throughout the year. The category "all other" loans, which
includes consumer loans, showed a substantial increase of $7,461,000 during the last three weeks in August and the first half
of September.
Reports indicate a continuiog strong demand for credit for
commercial and industrial purposes and for real-estate and consumer transactions. The more- than-average increase in consumer-type loans during the last week in August and the first
week in September may have been influenced by the earlier announcement that Regulation W would be re-established, effective September 20. Seasonal demands for commercial and indusrrial loans have added their strength to the generally strong
underlying demand for those types of credit.
As a further step toward restraining inflationary expansion
of bank credit, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System announced on September 8 an increase in the amount of
reserves required to be maintained with Federal Reserve banks
by banks which are members of the System, That increase in
CONDITION STATISTICS OF WEEKLY REPORTING MEMBER BANKS
IN LEADING CITIES-Eleventh FederaJ RMerve District
(In thollMmia (If dollars)
Sept, 15,
Sept. 17,
August II,
Item
1948
1947
1948
Total loans and inve6tments ...................... . 12,287,623 12,156,543· 12,276,496
1,040,11 5
Total loans-Net; ...... . ...... ...... ...... .
1,024,799
862,049- 1,031,072
Tatalloans-Grosa ................... . ... . .... . 1,040,089
Commercial, industrial, and agricultural loans . . .
712,574
574,793
705,923
Loans to brokers and dealers in securities ....... .
0,355
7,480
7,043
Other loans for purcbasing or carrying securities ..
60,000
70,183
60,491
75,823
88,013
Real-estate loans. . . . . . . . . . . . . .............. .
80,880
557
Loans to banks . .. .... . . . . . . . . . .............. .
316
672
178,524
133,449
All other loans ..... ... . . ... . .......•.......••
171 ,063
1,294,494
Total investments . ... . . .. ............... .. .. . . . 1,241,53'
1,244,424
U. S. Treasury bilb .......................... .
44,523
18,607
46,930
U. S. Treasury certificates of indebtedness ... ... .
197,077
213.402
186,435
U. S. Treasury notes . . ................. . . . ... .
116,690
127,413
122,H8
u. S. Gove~n.ment bonds (inel. gtd. abligntiona) .. 701,717
829,762
767,487
Other securities . . ...........................•
121,527
105,320
121,424
516,058
Reserves with Federal Reserve Bank ... .. .......... .
478,784
S02,455
315,392
Balances with domestio banks .... . ... . ........•...•
326,555
282,272
Demand deposita-adjuated· ...... . . . ........ , .. .. 1,037,808
1,820,567
1,910,486
410,004
378,533
417,570
37,000
26,201
35,0118
Interbank deposita . ......... .. ............... . ... .
615,207
5!)~=
S6~~!
Borrowings from Federal Reserve Dank ............ .
None
1irtit~~~Go~~~~~~i d~~~·.:';: ::::::::::: ::
·Ineludes all demand depoeit.s other than interbank and United States Government, less
cash items reported 88 on hand or ill process af collection.
tAfter deductions for reserves and unallocated oharge-offs.
-Prior to J unc 30, 1048, the individual clas:Jes of loans were reported net; howM'er the
Bmount of reserves dooueted subsequent to June 30, 1948, was so small as to have no significant
effeet upon the comparability af the data.
reserve requirements raised the requirement on net demand deposits for central reserve city banks from 24 to 26 percent, cf-
171
MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
fective September 24, for reserve city banks from 20 to 22
percent, also effective September 24, and for nonreserve city
banks from 14 to 16 percent, effective September 16. The reserve
requirement on time deposits was raised from 6 to 7-)1, percent
for all classes of banks but was made effective September 24
for tbe central reserve and reserve city banks and September 16
for the nonreserve city banks. This action was taken on the basis
of the temporary additional authority given to the Board of
Governors at the recent special session of Congress permitting
the Board to raise reserve requirements of member banks 4
percentage points against net demand deposits and 1-)1, percentage points against time deposits above tbe legal limit at the
time of the Congressional action. Remaining authority of the
Board of Governors to raise reserve requirements of member
banks would permit, if the situation should demand, a further
increase against net demand deposits of reserve city banks and
nonreserve city banks of 2 percentage points and an increase in
the reserves on net demand deposits of central reserve city banks
by 4 percentage points.
Bank debits reported in 24 cities in the District were 6 percent lower in August than during the preceding month bUl
were 19 percent above August 1947. Banks in three-fourths of
the reporting cities reported declines in bank debits during August as compared wit h the July level, while the remaining cities
reported more or less moderate increases, with the exception of
T exarkana, which reported an increase of 23 percent. Bank
debits during August were lower in the largest cities of the
District, including Dallas, Fort Worth, Hous~on, El Paso, Austin, and San Antonio. Little change from the preceding month
was reported in the annual rate of turnover of deposits. For the
past few months, the deposit turnover has been running at
slightly more than 13 times a year, and while this is considerably
above the rate of a year ago, only fractional changes have occurred in recent months.
BANK DEBITS, END-OF-MONTH DEPOSITS, AND ANNUAL RATE OF TURNOVER
OF DEPOSITS
(Amounts in thou.&u](Js of dol1n.N1)
_--Debits- - _
Annunl rate of turnover
Pctg.change over End-of-montb
Deposits of individuals, partnerships, and corporations at selected mem ber banks in the District increased by $76,077,000
during the five weeks ended September 15 . Relatively moderate fluctuations occurred each week from August 11 through
September 8, with an increase of more than $78,000,000 being
reported for the last week of the period. Demand deposits adjusted showed an increase of $27,372,000, while interbank
deposits increased by $30,736,000.
Gross demand deposits and time deposits of the member banks
of the District increased during August, as the former type of
deposits rose to $5,112,411,000 and time deposits increased to
$591,551,000. The increase in gross demand deposits during
August occurred at the country banks of the District, which
reported a growth of more than $23,000,000 in their demand
deposits, while the expansion of time deposits occurred at the
reserve city banks, as this type of deposits increased at those
banks from $375,215,000 to $379,803,000. Reserve city banks
reported a moderate decline in gross demand deposits, while
country banks reported a slightly smaller volume of time deposits.
.
Date
AUgU8t 1946,
August 1947
~rilI948 . .. _
ay 1948 . ...
June 1948 . ..
July 1948 ... .. . .
August IM8 . .
G"""
demand
$4,914,883
.. 4.845,031
4,987,656
4,997,789
5,044,942
5.096,434
5,112.411
Arizona: Tucson . .....
Louisiana:
Monroe ..• _..
Shreveport ...
New Mexico: Roswell.
August
1947
1948
$ 57.445 22
33,030
123,228
12,450
32.990
88,840
101.931
AusIin ............
97.942
Beaumont .. . . ... . .
Corpus Christi .....
88.412
10.215
Corsicana . ........
967.703
DaUas ...........
106.454
EI Paso .........
305.777
Fort Worth . . ....
69.462
Galveston .. .....
Houstoo . . . _.....
1.053.278
15.045
Laredo . . . .. . ....
54.016
Lubbock ........
34,331
Port Arthur .•.... _
30,166
San Angelo . . .... _.
233.757
San Antonio . ......
19,562
Texarkanat .. . .....
38,931
Tyler .. ,_ . ........
47.474
Waco . . . ..........
53,123
Wichita FaUs ......
deposits·
1948
-4
Aug. 31. 1948
$ 85,278
1948
8.3
1947
7.2
10.0
9.4
8.4
8.2
9.0
9.4
12.5
11.6
11.8
13.4
6.5
16.1
11.5
13.3
8.8
14 .0
7.8
10.0
10.4
9.2
8.9
10.4
8.6
9.0
7.9
8.5
12.5
27
14
15
-3
21
8
13
1
-6
-3
2
6
8
-9
-11
-12
-2
-4
-12
-9
-10
3
-4
23
41,069
162,582
-9
-5
Tex.&.!:
Abilene •. ' •• _.. . _.
Amarillo ...• _.. _, .
July
3D
8
24
19
20
4
20
29
4
9
11
17
12
49
15
6
25
18,146
41,975
86.218
104,779
08.450
81,202
19,083
724,709
1ll.591
278,412
97,747
902,804
23,435
65,OSI
39.298
38,978
318,637
23,041
54,341
64,289
81,843
-11
-2
-3
Augu$
7.4
11.2
10.1
14.3
5.3
14 .6
10.2
13.0
7.8
12.7
8.4
10 .9
9.6
8.4
7.9
7.2
8.4
8.8
7.1
July
1948
8.8
10,3
10.3
9.1
9.2
13.3
12 . 1
11.9
13.3
6.0
17.6
12.8
16.1
9.2
14.8
8.8
10.6
11.5
8.9
9.2
8.6
9.7
9.2
8.3
11.4
13.3
13.4
-6
$3,562,788
Total-24 cities ...... $3,675,562 19
·DemRnd and time deposits at the end of the month include certified. and officers' checks
outstanding but. exclude deposits to the credit of banks.
tTbi! fiJl:ure includes only one. bank in Texarbna, ~el(as. -:r:otal de~its. for all banks in
Texarkana, Texas--Arlmnsas, includmg two banks located III the Eighth District, amounted to
$29,422.
OROSS DEMAND AND TIME DEPOSITS OF MEMBER BANKS
Eleventh Federal Reserve District
(Averages of daily figures. 10 thOUSl\nds or dollars)
Combined total
Reserve city banks
August
C;ty
August
Country hanks
Gr0S8
Gr0S8
Time
demand
Time
demand
Time
$496,842 $2.402,647 $316.175 $2,512,236 1180,667
540,172 2,324,623 338.401 2,520,398 201,771
574.507 2,354,485 362.306 2,623,171 212,201
509.656 2,384,586 358,943 2,613,203 210,713
576,282 2,415,559 364,548 2,629,383 211,734
587.716 2,456.933 375.215 2,629,501 212,501
591,551
2,449,802 379,803 2,662,609 211,748
Principal, changes in the condition of the Federal Reserve
Bank of Da llas for the month ended September 15 reflected an
increase of $7,658,000 in Federal Reserve notes of the Dallas
Bank in actual circulat ion, bringing the total outstanding on
September 15 to $617,275,000; a decline in holdings of United
States Government securities from $976,665,000 to $96 0,988,000; and a decline in total gold certificate reserves of approximately $35,800,000. Foreign loans on gold showed a r~l
atively small increase, while discounts for member banks
declined to $792,000.
SAVINGS DEPOSITS
Eleventh Federal Reserve District
August 31,1948
C;ty
Louisiana: Shreveport .....
Number of
Number of
reporting
banks
3
depositors
savings
32,810
Percenta~e
savings
change in
Fort Worth .... ........
Galveston ....... . . ....
Houston ...............
Lubbock ........•.•.•.
3
8
2
4
4
8
2
2
5
3
3
12,167
142,797
32,247
43,110
23,293
101,362
6,362
Wichita. Falls . .... , . ,_.
All other ................
55
1,433
38,862
10,029
7,052
62,894
Total. ........
102
514,418
Port Arthur ...........
San Antonio ...........
Waco .........•.•.••.•
(In millions of dollars)
eposits from
Amount of
savings
August 31,
deposits
IOt7
$ 24.876,671 - 5.3
6,246,144
77.935,685
22,160.701
34,031,062
2I,{l13,785
72,958, 193
4,869.965
1,779,230
45,486.503
9,772.135
4,634.158
53,958,202
$380,622,434
.5 weeks
ended
1948
-1.7
- 8.0
-0. 1
-5.1
- 2 .2
0 .1
4.0
-6.1
- 1.4
- 3.0
2.4
- 0.8
0 .4
- 0.4
- 0.4
- 1.0
-0.8
- 0.5
0 .03
- 0 .1
- 0 .5
- 0 .7
- 0.3
0 .5
- 0 .5
-
-
0.7
Cumulative changes
Changes in weeks ended.
July 3t,
Telta8:
Be.a.umont . . ....... ....
Dal..las .•..............
El Pa8o ...............
MEMBER BANK RESERVES AND RELATED FACTORS
Eleventh Federal ~serve District
0 .5
Item
Sept. 15. Sept. 8, Sept. 1, Aug. 25. Aug. IS,
1948
1948
1948
1948
1948
Federal Reserve creditlocal ..................
Interdistrict commercial &:
11.5 -
1.4
2.3 -
Jan. 1 to
Sept. 15,
1948
1. 8
12.1
4.0
-2.0 -12 .0
4.8
1.8
- 1.7 - 1.8
-16.3
55.4
-119.1
119.0
2.0
2.1
financia l transactions ... -11.3
Trea.euryopcrations ...... 13 .3
12 .2
CurrencytransactioOll.....
3.6
-5 .7
-3.2
12 .6
- 5.0
Ot;:d~t:e~!hBank .. _
0.1
0. 1
0.7
-0.6
-0 . 1
Other Fedcral Reserve
accounts... ...........
Member bank reserve
0.4
-0.1
0.2
-0.1
0.2
22 .9
Sept.15,
1948
-10.6
0.6
0 .6
6.2
balanccs ............ ... 17,4
28.0
7.6 -1.7 -10.1
41.2
12.7
Note: Amounts preceded by a minus sign reduce reserves; all others add to reserves.
172
MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
CONDITION OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE DANK OF DALLAS
(In thousands of dollars)
Item
Totttl goki certificate rcsenres .•.....•. , ...•..•.... ,
Discoullt9 for member banks ...•.•.••.•••••.•.•....
Foreign loalls on gold .. , ..... , ..•.•...••••.•••....
U. S. Government securities ...................... .
Total earning assets ............... ...... ........ .
Member bnuk reserve deposits .•.........•.........
Federal Reserve DOLes in actual circulation ......... .
Sept. 15,
Sept. 15,
August 15,
1948
$549,212
792
8,002
960,988
979,382
876,794
617,276
1947
$487,866
300
974
950.148
961.422
811.651
616,437
1948
5585.019
3.750
7.912
976.665
988.327
847.497
609,617
NEW MEMBER BANK
Tbe Empire Slate Balik of Dallas, Texas, a newly
organized institution, opened for business September 20,
1948, as a member of the Federal Reserve System.
Tbis bank has paid-i>. capital furuls of $1,200,000,
including capital of $750,000, surplus of $250,000, an.d
undivided profits of $200,000. Its officers are: Ellis C.
H1tggin.s, President; Mic!:x11lx Nash, Executive Vice
President; T. W. Rutledge, Vice President; and Clyde
E. Crosby, Cashier.
INDUSTRY
The daily average production of crude petroleum in August
continued at ncar record levels in the Eleventh Federal Reserve
District and in the United States set a new record of 5,516,987
barrels daily. Production in the District, which averaged 2,693,000 barrels daily, was only 2,008 barrels under the record
level of June and was 24,392 barrels daily larger than in July
and 186,600 barrels in excess of that in August 1947. Production
outside of the Eleventh District rose to 2,823,087 barrels daily,
exceeding the rate for the previous month by 32,979 barrels
and the August 1947 rate by 189,638 barrels.
the July rate, though 8 percent above that for a year ago. The
seasonal peak in gasoline consumption was passed without evidence of shortage. The high level of refinery operations during
the spring and summer months has enabled the industry to
make considerable progress in building up stocks of refined
products, despite the heavy demand, This has been facilitated
by increased imports and decreased exports, with the Economic
Cooperation Administration purchasing its requirements largely
from offshore sources.
The Interstate Oil Compact Commission, in a recent report,
estimated the United States demand for crude oil and natural
gas liquids during the October 1948-March 1949 winter season
at 6,743,000 barrels daily, or 449,000 barrels more than last
season. Stocks of refined products are above levels of a year
earlier, ranging from 13 percent for gasoline to 31 percent for
residual fuel oil, and are better distributed geographically. With
some increase in imports, supplies should be adequate to meet
the winter demands.
Affecting the national picture has been the reduction of refinery operations in California during September due to labor
difficulties, resulting in some diversion of petroleum products
from the Midwest to that area and in an embargo being placed
on exports of such products from the West Coast.
Drilling operations, as measured by the number of wells completed, continue at high levels, with the August figures for
both the United States and the District moderately exceeding
those for July and considerably exceeding the completions of
August 1947.
The value of construction contracts awarded in the Eleventh
District during August was $75,883,000, which is 4 percent
above the July level and 11 percent above the August 1947
figure. Residential building contract awards in August were
28 percent above those of July and 24 percent above those of
the same month of last year. Nonresidential construction for
VALUE OF CONSTRUCTION CONTltACTS AW AllDED
CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION-(Bo"ol,)
August 1948
Total
production
A,..
Te1M:
District 1.. . ..........
2 ....... .•...•.
3 ..... .•.•...•
4.. ....... ..... ...
5 .. . ......... . ....
6 ...............•.
Other 6 ...........
7b ...
70 .. ......... . .
8 ............ •• .
9 ..........•.•....
10 .................
Total Texas ...............
New Mexico .........••......
........... .
North Louisiana ..•.•• , •.•...•
Total Eleventh District .... .
Outside EleYenth District .....
United States ...............
898,400
5,547,700
15,297,350
1,762,400
1,623,660
9,439,160
3,731,350
1,677,000
1,354,600
21,304,600
4,278,900
2,670,000
75,886,300
4,112,850
3,511,760
83,510,900
87,515,700
171,026,600
Dailyavg.
production
28,981
]78,!l58
493,463
260.400
49,150
304,489
120,366
50,890
43,697
703.374
138,029
86,148
2,447,945
132,673
113,282
2,693,900
2,823,087
6,616,987
(In thousands or dollars)
lncrease or decrease in daily
average production from
July 1948
66
1.677
2,221
1,423
818
991
-890
1,683
765
12,426
1,61H
-2,525
20,239
3,992
161
24.392
32.979
67,371
August 1\)47
5,475
19,624
6,380
9,052
9,629
-19,069
4,410
11,660
4.165
IH,OOS
11,092
2,580
148.993
24.019
13.648
186.660
189.638
376,298
SOURCE: Estimated from American Petroleum Institute weekly report.o.
Refinery operations, both in the District and the Nation,
declined slightly in August as compared to July but continued
welL above the rate of a year ago. Crude runs to stills averaged
1,741,000 barrels daily in the Eleventh District, or 32,000 barrels daily less than in July but 205,000 barrels above August
1947. The average for the United States was 5,589,000 barrels
daily, or 98,000 barrels below the previous month but 372,000
barrels above August 1947. Stocks of crude oil at the end of
August were 2 percent above July levels but fractionally below
• year ago. Gasoline production in August was 1 percent below
August 'T' August
Eleventh Dist rid-total ..
ResidentiaL .......... .
All other ....... ... ... .
United SI.:ltC3· -tot.ul. ... .
Residential ....... .
All other .. .
1948
5 75,883
24,748
51,135
854,091
337,660
618,541
1947
5 68,120
19,930
48,190
823,216
3()8,937
514,279
puly
1948
5 72,907
19,309
53,688
962,685
iU9,699
612,986
January 1 to August 31
1948
1947
$ 650,623 5 <51.020
182,664
166,774
367.969
284,246
6,883,581
4,976.115
2,5 10,818
2.018.724
4,072,763
2,957,391
·37 states east of the Rocky Mountains.
SOURCE: }.... W. Dodge Corporation .
BUILDING PERMITS
August 1948
City
No. Valuation
Louisiana:
Shreveport ....• 308 $ 986,024
Texa.s:
Abilene ........
79
330,296
Amarillo .......
240 1,196,200
Austin ...
447 2,270,410
426
Beaumont
881.880
822,917
200
~Ir~~~ ?h.r~~l~: 1,370
5.279,627
143
696,773
F.I Paso ...
679 1,968,123
Fort Worth .....
O:llveRton ......
156
178,192
Il sUI;ton ....... 780 8,047,000
Lubbock. _ .....
~"IO
887,564
Port Arthur _...
206
475,63 1
Ran Antollio .. ' 1,295 3,421,734
161
751,000
Waco .•. . ......
Wichita Fall! ...
99
260,900
:
Total . ..
-----6,909 '28,363,785
Perceutage
Percentage change Jan.1toAug.31,1948 change
valuation from
valuation
Aug.194i July 1948 Ko.
Valuation {rom 1947
2,684 $ 23,333,617
38
26
38
22
79
- 44
4
-21
-23
-16
43
17
169
42
-18
-27
20
15
21
-30
- 39
- 15
63
-iU
-80
-7
-57
16
-13
- 35
13
- II
6
740
1,589
2,742
2,901
2,458
1l,029
986
4,883
1,322
6,226
238
3,644,035
7,684,917
17,308,040
6,954,138
12,063,789
64,708,578
6.733,796
19,937,472
2,797,655
69,436,797
9,473,776
2,353.243
24,760,877
8,797,1 79
2,90.1,2611
25
45
29
69
19
87
61
26
76
55
21
53
46
61
62
52,095 5282,893,175
59
1,905
1,126
9,983
1,222
599
MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
August was 5 percent below July but was 6 percent above a
year ago. Contract awards for the first eight months of 1948
were 22 percent above the corresponding period of 1947, reflecting increases of 10 percent for residential and 29 percent
for nonresidential construction.
Cotton consumption in the United States in August was
728 ,732 bales, or 101,339 more than in July and 18,131 more
than in August 1947. The demand for cotton textiles continues
largely on a current requirements basis, with the number of
cotton consuming spindles in operation during the last week of
August being fractionally above a year earlier. A number of
New England mills have recently closed due to cost as well as
market factors.
DOMESTIC CONSUM PTION AIm STOCKS OF COTrON-(Bales)
August
Consumption aL:
1948
Texas mills. ... . . ... ............ . . . ...... . . . ..
12,090
UniLed States milia. ............. ..•. • . •. •. . . ..
728.732
U. S. atocb-end of month :
In consuming est.abliabmenta. . . . . . . . . . . .. .. . . . . . . 1,246,848
Public storage and compresses. .. .. . . . . . . . . . ... .. 1,723,6 16
August
1947
11,887
712,1164
J . lS.~,48 l
840,201
July
1948
11,936
627,393
1,471,644
1,335,996
173
COTTONSEED AND COTrONSEED PRO DUCTS
August 1948
_ - - T , m a - - _- -United Statee-~
August 1 to August 3 1
AugU6t I to ."ugust. 3 1
This aeason Last. season Tbis season La8t eeaeon
Cot"'n,.,..j ""';. ed at milia ("'na) . ....
101,233
120,322
373,048
167,444
CoI"'.".,..j
("'na)....... . . . .. .
87,3 18
61,311
173,000
101,9 17
Cott.on9CCd on band August 31 (t.ons). ..
168,1 00
113,439
289,068
165,055
Production or product.z:
61,2(1)
18,248
31,032
Crude oil (thousand r unds) ... , .... .
26,036
BO,666
46,971
Cake a.nd meal (tons .. .......... , ..
42,414
29,662
13,046
39,314
23,141
19,238
Hulla("''''') .... . .... . ............ .
31,738
Linters (running ba les) ... . .
19,226
53,165
28,096
SWcks on hand August 31:
12,163
4,006
8,405
Crude oil (thousand pounds), . . . ,.,..
4,717
6,532
74,554
26,722
Cake and meal (tous) . . , ..... , ... ,. .
33,700
11,900
44,219
34,554
Hulla (tons).. . . .............. . ... .
19,100
101,348
20,672
71,888
Linters (running bales) . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
48.824
SOURCE: Unitod Statca Bureau oC Census.
,"""cd
Employment this summer reached new highs in both the
District and the N ation. The preliminary estimate of nonagricultural employment in Texas during September is 2,294,600,
or 15,000 more than in Jul y or August. The return of teachers
to schools, the seasonal fall increase in retail trade, and the
recruiting of additional workers for defense plants account for
the September increase and, with the re-entrance of students in
schools and the demand f or cotton pickers, account for a tightening of the labor market.
@FedFRASER