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MONTH~Y o f the BUSINESS REVIEW FEDERAL RESERVE Dallas, Texas, November 1, 1943 Volume 28, No.9 DISTRICT SUMMARY For the third consecutive month there were no commercial failures in the Eleventh District. Department store sales during September were well above those last year and during the first nine months of 1943 averaged 39 per cent above the corresponding period in 1942. At the end of September inventories were IS per cent above those of a year earlier. Agricultural production goals for 1944 announced by the War Food Administr~ tion call for cultivation of the largest acreage ever planted 10 this country and for an all-time peak production of meat. F~od and feed crop goals in Texas are larger than actual productIOn during any previous year. As the result of record purchases of new Treasury securities by nonbank investors during the Third War Loan drive, deposits in war loan accounts exceeded $500,000,000 at the middle of October. Since June, 1940 Texas has :eceived 3 per cent of the major war contracts and allocatio~ In the United States and ranks tenth among the 48 states 10 the value of war contracts received. Daily average production of crude oil in the district rose to an all-time peak during September. BUSINESS Department store sales in the Eleventh District during September were 31 per cent above those in September, 1942 and dUring the first nine months of 1943 have averaged 39 per cent above those last year. The larger volume of sales has prevailed Continuously since February and has oc~urred in virtua~ly ap sections of the district. The percentage gam over last year 10 this district has been consistently larger than in other Federal Reserve districts and substantially above the average increase in the nation. Preliminary reports indicate that these trends continued during the first two weeks in October. Piece goods, women's and misses' ready-to-wear and ready-to-wear accessories have accounted for the largest part of the gains both from a dollar viewpoint and on a percentage basis. With the exception of some types of house furnishings and other scarce items, virtually all departments have registered gains during the year. During the first nine months of the year cash sales have been in record volume and have accounted for an increasing proportion of total sales. Credit sales averaged only 23 per cent above those of last year, whereas the percentage gain in total sales has been almost twice as great. During September cash sales accounted for about one-half of total sales. For about a year the ratio of collections on regular accounts outstanding at the first . of each month has averaged slightly above 60 per cent. During September the ratio was 61 per cent. Collections on instalment aCCOunts outstanding at the first of the month have averaged between 25 and 30 per cent during the past twelve months but !ncreased to 33 per cent in September. Despite the large increase In sales inventories at reporting department stores at the end of Septem'ber were 15 per cent larger than a year earlier. Orders OUtstanding at the end of the month were 1 per cent smaller than at the end of August but were 168 per cent greater than at the end of September, 1942. For the third consecutive month no commercial failures were reported in the Eleventh Federal Reserve District by Dun and Bradstreet Incorporated. During the first nine months of this year there'have been only 11 commercial failures in the district While the liabilities of defaulting firms have amounted to $263,000. AGRICULTURE Agricultural production goals for 1944 alIDounced by the War Food Administration call for cultivation of 380,000,000 ° BANK o f Dallas This COllY is r eien sed for pubIicntion in mornin g !)n!)er s- N b 3 ovem er acres of crop land, the largest acreage ever planted in the United States, and for an all-time peak production of 30,690,000,000 pounds of meat, or 2,000,000,000 pounds more than the indicated record slaughter for 1943. The program places emphasis upon cultivation of food crops and reduces goals for ~ertain f~ed crops and some types of livestock. Increased productIOn of milk, eggs, beef cattle, hay, corn, wheat, soybeans, peanuts and vegetables and decreased production of fowls, hogs, oats and some other products are recommended. The goals for cotton and rice production are unchanged. If Texas farmers attain the 1944 goals set for them, they will produce the largest food and feed crops in the history of the State. Substantial increases. in produ~ tion of virtually all grains and feeds and moderate mcreases 10 production of milk, eggs and chickens are desired. Sweet potato and Irish potato acreages are to be increased, but the peanut acreage goal for the State is set somewhat below that of 1943. The cotton acreage goal of 8,050,000 acres recommended for 1944 is the same as that of 1943. Widespread rains during September relieved drought conditions in all sections of the Eleventh District except northwest Texas. Range feed prospects were improved and stock water supplies were increased in New Mexico, Arizona and most of Texas and fall feed crops, citrus fruits and fall and winter truck crops were benefited. On October 1, the 1943 Texas cotton crop was estimated at 2,850,000 bales, as compared with 3,038,000 bales produced in 1942 and the 1932-1941 average of 3,419,000 bales. The indicated cotton production in Oklahoma and Arizona is smaller than the production in 1942 or the 10-year average, but the crop in Louisiana and New Mexico is expected to be substantially larger than during those periods. A United States cotton crop of 11,478,000 bales is indicated for 1943, as compared with 12,824,000 bales produced in 1942 and the 1932-1941 average of 12,474,000 bales. The indicated yield of cotton per acre in 1943 is smaller in Texas, Oklahoma and Arizona but substantially greater in Louisiana than in 1942. Cotton in the northwestern districts of Texas deteriorated during September due to continued drought conditions, and the rains came too late in other sections of the State to benefit the crop. By the end of September, cotton picking was almost complete in the southern half of the State and was well past the peak in central, northern and eastern counties. In the northwestern area, unfavorable weather conditions and shortage of pickers caused some delay in harvesting. The indicated production of corn in Texas on October 1 was 86,688,000 bushels, or approximately 8,000,000 bushels greater than the actual production in 1942. The indicated grain sorghum production of 59,475,000 bushels is fractionally smaller than the crop of 1942 but substantially greater than the 19321941 average. The rice, Irish potato and sweet potato crops are expected to be considerably larger than in 1942 or the 10-year average. Fall and winter commercial vegetable areas in south Texas are in excellent condition :!;s a result of the general rains received in September and a large acreage of truck crops will probably be planted. Production of 16,800,000 boxes of grapefruit is indicated in Texas this year, as compared with 17,510,000 boxes produced in 1942. Production of oranges is expected to total 3,000,000 boxes, or about 18 per cent more than was produced last year. Wheat seeding has been delayed in the important northwest Texas area by moisture deficiency, and at mid-October a large acreage remained to be seeded. This publication was digitized and made available by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' Historical Library (FedHistory@dal.frb.org) MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 2 The condition of ranges improved during September in all sections of the Eleventh District except northwest Texas and eastern Oklahoma, but at the end of the month the ranges were providing less feed than at the same time in 1942. The condition of livestock in tllls district is generally good, although considerably less favorable than at the same time in 1942 and somewhat below the 20-year average. The Department of Agriculture reports that there will probably be a sharp reduction in the num~ ber of cattle, sheep and lambs fed during the corning winter and spring as compared with the preceding year. Shipments of livestock in Texas were relatively large during September but slackened early in October. The average farm prices of wheat, oats and rice increased moderately in Texas between August 15 and September 15 and the average price of hay increased markedly. The farm price of grain sorghums declined substantially, but on September 15 was still much higher than at the same time last year. The farm prices of beef cattle and veal calves declined slighty in the State and the prices of hogs and sheep increased fractionally. There was little change in the farm prices of the other major agricultural products. CROP PRODUCTION- (Thousands of units) ~Texas Eleventh District-Estimated Production Estimated Produotion Oot. 1, 1943 1942 Oct. 1, 1943 1942 2,850 3,038 3,599 3,745 86,688 78,561 100,086 93,887 35.697 47,438 36,386 49,053 15,694 11,210 19,880 15,181 3,682 4,818 10,642' 18, Ill' Rico..... ............... 20,196 15,498 20, 196 15,498} Broomcorn . . . . . • . . . . . . . . 4,400 6,600 28,000 44,000 Grain sorghuIDB. . . . . . . . . . 59,475 59,675 72,330 75,557 Tame hny.. .... ... ...... 1,219 1,441 1,768 1,989 Peanuts. . . . . . .. . . . ..... . 423,200 430,080 592,100· 589,970Potatoes, Irish . . .. . . . . . . . 6,450 5,301 7,543 6,068 Potatoes, sweet. . . . . . . • . . 6,300 3.825 15,280· 10,433Pcaches .. . .. . . .. .. . . .... 900 1,610 1,400· 2,582e Pecans. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23,250 10,300 46,090· 22,200. "Arizona, New Mexico, Okl ahomn~ ~n4 Tex... tTexas onlY. tNcw Moxico, Oklnhoma and Texas. "Ari zona, Louisiana, Now MOXleO, Oklahomn, and T.xas. -Louisiana, Oklahoma' and Texas. Other data for Elev.nth District d. rived from estimates by states. ' SOURCE: United States Department of Agri.ulture. Crop Cotton. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Corn ........ ... ......... Winter wheat .......... . · Oats .. ....... ....... .. .. Barley. . . .. .... .. . . . . .. . Uuit Boles Bushels Bushels Bushels Bushels Bushels Pounds Bushels Tons Pounds Bushcls Bush.ls Bushels Pounds LIVESTOCK RECEIPTB-(Number) Sept. 1942 95,984 60,909 56,307 218,004 August 1943 97,100 40,108 77,545 406,530 Sept. 1943 18,813 27,488 11,831 45,887 San Antonio ~ Sept. August 1942 1943 24,401 21,270 35,369 29,952 13,268 12,185 31,946 63,238 COMPARATIVE TOP LIVESTOCK PRICES (Dollars por hundredweight) ~FortWorth B.ef ste.rs .. .. . . .. . ...... Btock.r ste.rs ............ H.ifers and yearlings ..... Butcher cowa . . . .... . ... . Calves ..... ....... ...... Hoga ...... ..... .. .... ... Lambs .................. Sopt. 1943 $14.00 12. 50 14.25 11 .25 13 .00 14 .80 13 .50 Sept. 15, 1943 $651,853 127 145 150,546 401,350 211,959 None 270,455 507,563 365,277 hs;,b·.:::::::::::::::::::::: i~i!1re~i~~:s?~~e~~s~m.··.o.·~i. ~c~~;itie:.·.·.: : :::::::::::: 315,ll~ T l' . ............... . . . . . • ... None Mota ~armn1aasets. . . .. .. ..... .... ..... .. ....... edm lr ban reserve deposits............. ...... .. F era Reserve notes in aetllal circulation.. .. ...... 'e Sept. 1942 $13.75 12.00 14.75 10. 25 18 .00 15.00 14 .00 August 1943 Sl3.75 13.00 13.50 11.50 13 .00 14 .35 13 .50 Sept. 1948 $12 .75 San Antonio ~ Sept. August 1942 1943 $12.50 $12.90 . ia:ilil .ia:25 11.00 13.00 14.25 9.75 13 .00 14 .25 CASH FARM INCOME (In thousands of dollars) August Receipts from: Auguat 1942 Crops Livcstockt 1943 I 2,015 4,284 3,143 Arizona ... . ............ . 1, 669 8,813 13,110 4,779 17, 889 Louisiana . ... ..... . 3,588 3 ,110 6,698 4,495 New Mexico . .. . ... . 29, 098 39,963 38 ,283 Oklahoma . . ....... , ... . . 10, 805 41,882 94,671 00,837 T.x.... . ... ,. · ·········· 52,789 81,484 103 ,505 145,571 Toto!. .. .. .. 82 ,021 Jan. 1 to 1943 84,648 91,302 46,955 224,542 625,627 1,073,074 .ia:ilil 11.50 13 .00 14.25 Ang. 31 1942 61,035 72,035 32,914 195,179 473,230 834,393 tIncludes receipts from the IIlllo of livestock and livestock produets. - - - - SOURCE: United States Dcpnrtmcnt of Agriculture. FINANCE The Third War Loan drive produced no major changes in the condition of member banks and the shifts that occurred were about in line with expectations. In the Eleventh District, as in other sections of the nation, the increases in loans and investments of weekly reporting me~ber banks reflected principally efforts on the part of nonbank Investors to obtain funds "for the 315,210 491.804 373,282 150,~~~ 270,3:~ CONDITION STATISTICS OF 33 MEMBER BANKS IN LEADING CIT[EB (Thousands of dollars) Oct. 13, Oot. 14, Sept. 8, 1943 1942 1943 TTot~~llolans and investments ....................... $1,315,988 $850,748 $1,220,73! 0... oans ..... . . ... . 329931 309,052 281,74u Commercial, industrial '~I;d '~iri~~lt~rni i~~~~: : :::: 217:592 226,782 203,117 Loans to brokers and dealers in securities .. ........ 6,175 2,375 2,150 Other loans for purchasing or carrying securities . . . . 24,774 12,067 13,273 ~al estate loans. .. .. .. . .. .. .. .. .. .. . .. . .. .. .. . 19,793 20,028 19,772 ans to hanks. .. . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . .. . .. .. .. .. 127 241 104 r~her loans .. ......... .. .................... 61 ,470 47,559 43,330 ~ as ITvestments.. . ... . .... . ..... .... ......... . . 986,057 541,696 938,985 . . reasury bills.. ... .... .... . .... .... ....... 112,087 79,176 93,508 U. S. Treasury certificates of indebtedness....... .. 240,768 79.187 235,979 ~'l/easury notes..... .... . ...... ............ 144,977 73,919 146,780 'l" .overnment bonds.. .... ...... .... ..... ... 379,173 211,196 353,971 Ob Othlgotlons .g.uaranteed by United States GOI··t..... 56,714 38,685 56,737 er .e~urltles. . . . .. . . . . . .. .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . 52,338 59,533 52,010 ~"fcrves W!tr Federa! Reserve Bank . .. .... ..... .... 279,688 262,612 313,895 DO ane~ 't I ~omestl.e banks.......... .... .... .... 247,843 271,888 1,024390,'~~~ T.em0:l eposlts-ndlustcd". . . . . .... . .....•...... 040,626 776,956 u UI":'te d ~SltS'G'" .... ..... ... : .. .... .. ... ..... . .. 150,241 128,948 150,50 It:, ~:f ~vernment deposits. . ...... .... .. . .. 255,608 34,201 74,13~ n r ap eposlts...... .. . .. .. . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 44!J609 390, 106 43~J43 BorrowlDl!B from Federal Reserve Bank. .. . . . . . . . . . . NOlin Nono NOue :Ineludes an demand deposits other than interbank nnd United Stotcs Government, I'" cosb ttems reported as on hand or in process of collection. III B ' d b GROSS DEMAND AND TIME DEPOSITS OF MEMBER BANKS (Average of daily figures-Thousands of dollars) Combined totnl Reserve city bank. Country b~ 1 ~FortWorth Sept. 1943 107,969 Cattl.......... . .. . .... · · Calves .. . . ... . . .. . . ···· . 42,915 71,657 r~e~p::: :::: :: : ::: ::: ::: 249,355 CONDITION OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE B.~NK (Thousands of dollars) Oot. 15, Oot. 15, 1943 1942 Total cash rescrves... . . $596,062 $500,038 pideou~ts for member 52 191 Gross demand September, 1941. . . . .. . .. $1,618,651 ~Ptembcr, 1942 ..... . . ... 2,055,183 J BY, 1943 .......... 2,846,872 e, 1943 .......... 2,876,672 AU y, 1943 .......... 2,874,871 Ugust'b 1943 .......... 2.925,047 Se ptem er, 1943 . .. ...... . 3,041,896 /r Gross Gross Time demand Time demand 5237,509 S 050,907 Sl32,164 S 667,684 227,472 1.166,232 127,368 888,951 235,518 1,580,606 139,352 1,266,266 238,040 1,584,550 141,240 1,292,122 241,779 1,562,343 143,301 1,312,528 245,390 1,585,376 145 304 1,340,271 247,911 1,629,896 147:579 1,412,000 Time $105,3~~ 100,1 96,1 66 96,800 98,478 100,Oa ~ 8 100,3 DEBITS TO INDIVIDUAL ACCOUNTS (Thousands of dollars) September September Pctg.chonge August Potg.cb"nfi~ 1943 1942 over year 1943 over mcn Abilen•...•.•....... . . .. $ 20,022 14,977 + 34 15,085 +33 ~~r~~~·.·.·.·. 44,123 45,714 - 3 36,781 +20 112,871 54,157 +108 61,660 + 83 Bonumont. • . .. . . .... .. . . 58,165 37,508 + 55 51,983 +12 Corpus Christi. ...... .. . . 50,247 37,317 + 85 43,190 +16 Corsicana....... .... .. .. 7,612 5,262 + 46 5,713 +33 Dallas.. . .. .. .. ....... .. 550,366 423,796 30 434,548 +27 El Paso.. . .. ............ 54,704 46,635 17 47,466 +15 Fort Worth........... ... 218,707 143,688 + 52 177,706 +23 Galveston . •. .. ... . . .. . . . 52,879 32,439 + 63 40,470 +31 HOllston........ ....... .. 519,684 374,502 39 452,343 +15 Laredo.. . .. . .. .. .. .. .. .. 11 ,200 8,695 29 10,285 + 9 26,154 15.514 69 19,925 +31 Lubbock ... . .... ... .. . .. Monroe, La.. ........ .... 21,027 17,284 22 15,051 +40 2 ~t \?hNur 'M' . .......... 24,064 16,698 48 18,715 +t31" swe, . . ...... . .. . 8,107 6,355 51 6,949 " Ban Angelo.............. 16.883 17,558 _ 4 12,635 34 San Antonio . .... ... . . . .. 145,874 111,024 + 31 126,075 +16 Shreveport, La.. . .. .. . .. . 84,857 61,313 + 38 64,467 +32 Texarkana-....... ....... 19,410 14,249 + 36 15,614 +24 Tucson, Ariz. .. .. .. .. .. .. 29,422 22,948 + 28 24,063 +22 W;ler.... . ......... .. . .. 21,293 13,711 + 55 17,208 +24 wfcchi\.; 'Falia : :: :: :::: :: : 33,670 26,253 + 28 23,965 +4~ ~ 22,357 + 27 21,570 ~ . . ...... . . . . . . . t :j: :j: t Totn~-24citiC8 . .... .. . .. $2,160,478. ~ +38 ~ +2\ Includes the figures of two bankslD Texarkana, Arkansns, located in tho Eighth Dlol"e . SAVINGS DEPOSITS b ge In September 30, 1943 Per~entage poSI.O (rCUl ______________~. savlnga dC 0 .~n____ Number of Number of Amcunt of ' - - - ; st 31, reporting .avill8S savinf!B Sept. 80, AU~948 banks depositors deJlOSlta 1942 5 Beaumont .............. . 3 10,944 S 4,857,721 +13.9 - 1'1 8 95,869 32,508,035 +25.1 03 Fort Worth ............. . Galveston ....... ...... .. 4 19,140 12,411,892 +14.4 9 Houston ........ .. .... . 10 78,732 37,157,409 +14.1 - 2'. Lubbock ... ........... : : ~ 915 457,007 +19.0 :: 2:4 Port Arthur .......... . 5,094 3,21 8,3U2 - 1.5 + 8 San Antonio . ........... . 5 28,309 21, 739,607 +20.2 '5 Shreveport. La . .. . . ... . : : 3 26,624 12,987,870 + 6.9 - .. 0 Waoo ..... . .. . .... . ..•. 3 7,484 4,611.180 +10.6 :: ~ :9 Wiohita Falls ........ . . . : 3 6,34 1 3,509,291 + 3 4 + 1.2 All ot,her ............ . .. . 59 60,484 28,702,015 + 7,3 ~ _ .5 Total . ..... ... . . 107 385,9S0 $187,720,942 +16 .0 Rr~:~: :: ::::::: :::: ::: ~ ~g~~ I~:m:m t~t8 "+' t :~ MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW purchase of new Treasury offerings. A record volume of customer deposits was converted into deposits in war loan accounts, thereby freeing them from legal reserve requirements. This tendency was much more pronounced at reserve city banks than at country banks and appeared to gain momentum as the drive progressed. Reserve balances of member banks in the district Were at a new peak when the drive opened, and although they ~eclined during subsequent weeks, average excess reserves durIng September were about the same as those in August. Although the changes in reserve balances, demand deposits and deposits in war loan accounts were of considerable size, the net effect on the excess reserve position of member banks was relatively small. When the Third War Loan drive opened the reserve balances of member banks in the district were at an a11time peak of $540,000,000 :md averaged $510,000,000 during ~he first half of September. Although a large part of the increase In reserve balances d1.lring the first half of the month was absorbed by required reserves against an increase of almost $100,000,000 in demand deposits, excess reserves rose to $115,000,000 during the first half of September. The increase -in deposits in war loan accounts during the first half of the montll Was moderate. During the second half of September average reserve balances of member banks were $33,000,000 below those of the first half. Purchases of new Treasury offerings by bank CUStomers, however, were in heavy volume during the latter half of the month and deposits in war loan accounts increased sharply. Consequently, net demand deposits declined more than $100,000,000 and there was a proportionate decline in required reserves. Nevertheless, reserve balances declined more rapidly than required reserves with the result that excess reserves during the second half of September were below those of the first half of the month. For the entire month excess reserves averageq $110,000,000, or about the same as in August. Deposits in war loan accounts rose to $370,000,000 at the end of September and stood at $502,000,000 at the middle of October. During September and the first part of October total loans of Weekly reporting member banks in the Eleventh District in~reased a~out $50,000,000. One-third of the increase occurred 1tl commercial, industrial and agricultural loans. Another third occurred in loans to brokers and dealers in securities and in other WHOLIllSALIll AND RIllTAIL TRADE STATISTICS It. tail Trade: D-rpartmellt . tores: Dotal 11th Dist ... FaUn•..... . .. . ... nort Worth ...... . . s.,~u~on .. : .. .... .. Sb ntomo ...... . Otrl~~Cmi!;. '. '. : : : : : ~tail rurniture: n~\fl 11th DiBt ... . F nil .......... .. n ort Worth ... . Sa~,on .. : ....... . Ind ntomo ...... . Aopondont stores:· N~!°M' ''.'' '' ''''' Okl h I)."CO .. ..... T a omn ...... ... \Vh °lx .............. . ° Number or reporting firms 46 Percentngo cbango In: Net snles Stockst Sopt., 1943 rrom Sept., 1943 rrom Jnll. 1, to Sopt., August, ~~k ArC~'3t, Sor.~;Oi9~~43 1942 1943 +31 + 27 +41 +33 +30 +25 +19 +23 +34 70 9 3 7 3 + 16 +21 +44 120 3n2 " 052 +iil +1 4 7 5 3 20 + 43 +17 +23 +26 +21 +28 +23 +26 +22 +1 +t +15 +18 - 7 + 1 - 1 - 13 +40 +t +1 +30 - 3 - 2 - 25 - 28 - 0 +16 +" +17 osnlo trade:· Maohinery, cqp't & Asupplies ........ . - 23 +28 \)utomobilo supplies ~{UIlB (inol.llquors). 10 +13 + 13 G Ootrioal supplies. . 3 +35 + 1 llrooeries. .. . .. . .. . 30 + U + 6 S arc!wnro . . . . .. . . . 12 - 23 - 9 TU~,oal cqp't ...... ~ + 13 +11 nooo & products. 3 +32 - 17 ompilcd by tstooks at ond Unitod SlntllS Bureau or Consus. ~Chango or month. .8 +30 +47 +44 +34 +37 +16 - 2 - 0 - 14 7 +4 +18 +88 +30 +31 +ii .... +18 - 11 - 14 - 17 + 4 . .... +16 .... less thnn ono-llIIlr 01 ono - 2 . ... + 1 1 .. .. .. .. llcr oont.. + INDEXES OF DEPARTMENT S1'ORIll SALES AND STOCKS (1923-1925 averngc-l00) Septembor August 1048 1043 ~l:kout sOllsollal adjustment . . . . 251 188 Stocks sonaollnl adjustmont . . .. .. . . 226 244 W (ond or month) . I1g 117 wl;~out scnsonal,adjustment . .. . .. 115 seasonal adjustment .. .. . .... . . 108 ~l lee. (daily avorage) July 1943 163 239 111 121 September 1942 171 154 104 05 3 loans for security trading, principally to facilitate the purchase of new Treasury offerings during the Third War Loan drive. The remainder of the increase occurred largely in "all other" loans, part of which also may have been used for the purchase of new Treasury securities, During September and the first week in October total investments of weekly reporting banks showed only minor net changes, as small declines in holdings of Treasury bills, certificates of indebtedness and Treasury notes were about offset by increased holdings of Treasury bonds and guaranteed obligations. During the week ended October 13, however, there were increases in holdings of all types of direct Government obligations, the largest gain occurring in Treasury bond holdings which rose $13,000,000, The increases during the latter week represented purchases of previously outstanding issues, since payment for the new offering of certificates of indebtedness and 2 per cent bonds was not due until October 15. During September and the first two weeks in October gross deposits of weekly reporting member banks increased $118,000,000 to a new peak of $1,791,000,000. United States Government deposits increased $176,000,000 and interbank deposits rose $34,000,000, offset in part by a decline of $94,000,000 in adjusted demand deposits. INDUSTRY The value of construction contract awards in the Eleventh Federal Reserve District declined 35 per cent in September after a moderate increase in August. During the period from July through September, awards in this district aggregated $44,000,000, as compared with $309,000,000 during the same period in 1942. Production and shipments of Portland cement at Texas mills declined slightly in July and August and were much smaller than during the same months in 1942, but substantially above the 1932-1941 average for those months. Since June, 1940 the major war contracts and allocations in the United States have amounted to about $165,000,000,000, of which Texas has received 3 per cent to rank tenth among the 48 sates in the value of war contracts received. The five states covered in whole or in part by the Eleventh Federal Reserve District have received awards aggregating $8,400,000,000, or about 5 per cent of the total. Texas accounts for more than 2 per cent of the war supply contracts, almost 6 per cent of the industrial facility awards and 7 per cent of the non-industrial facility awards. In the Eleventh District, 80 per cent of the war supply contracts received have been for the production of aircraft and aircraft parts and for ship construction and repair. A wards for construction of industrial facilities for the chemical and petroleum industries represent slightly more than 50 per cent of the total value of industrial facility awards placed in this district, whereas awards for construction of aircraft plants, shipyards and similar facilities amount to only 12 per cent of the total. A notable characteristic of the war activity in the Eleventh District is its concentration in two areas. North central Texas, which includes the Dallas and Fort Worth metropolitan areas and several other important cities, has received war supply contracts aggregating $1,600,000,000, or about 51 per cent of the value of contracts awarded in this district. North coastal Texas, including Houston, Beaumont, Galveston and adjacent cities, has received war supply contracts aggregating $1,360,000,000, or approximately 43 per cent of the total. Industrial facility awards have been concentrated in the north coastal area, which has received awards aggregating $615,000,000, or 48 per cent of the total. The per capita value of ind.ustrial facility awards and war supply contracts amounts to $1,000 in the north central area and $1,900 in the north coastal section, as compared with $575 in the district as a whole, No other section of the district has received war awards aggregating more than $250 per capita. MONTHLY BIUSINESS REVIEW 4 Daily average production of crude oil rose to an all-time peak of 2,019,000 barrels in September, primarily as a result of substantial increases in production in west Texas and south Texas. Daily average production outside this district also increased and total production in the United States attained an all-time peak of 4,33 7,000 barrels daily. Moderate increases in production,in this district are expected in October and November. The rapIdity with which further expansion of produc.tion c~n be accomplished will depend largely upon the speed WIth which transportation facilities can be provided for west Texas and New Mexico crude oil. Crude oil stocks in the Eleventh District increased slightly in September and at the end of the month were approximately 3 per cent larger than at the same time in 1942. Stocks outside this district were reduced, however, and at the end of September stocks in the United States were approximately 3 per cent smaller than at the same time last year. Drilling activity declined i~ the. EI~veI?-th District and in other areas in September, but 10 thIS dlstnct was 13 per cent above the level of September, 1942, whereas in other areas it was approximately 20 per cent below the level o~ that mo~th. Approximately 12,000 ~ells were compl.eted 10 the Umted States during the first mne months of this year, as compared with 16,200 wells completed during the same period in 1942 and 23,600 wells completed during the first nine months of 1941. In the Eleventh District, 3,300 wells were completed during the first nine months of this year, or 32 per cent less than during the comparable period of 1942 and 61 per cent less than during the same period in 1941. Dry wells represented, furthermore, a substantially greater portion of well completions during the first nine months of 1943 than during the comparable periods in the two preceding years. MAJOR WAR SUPPLY CONTRACTS AND FACILITY AWARDS" (Millions o[ dollars) Supply Contraots through Faaility Awards through Grand August 1043t May 1948 Total .supply and Air. All Indus· Non·in· Faaility Ships other Total trial dustrial Total Contracts ara[t Total United Statest 42,202 21,104 68,890 132,205 15,554 12,028 27,582 150,877 Off Continent and Unassigned.. .... Arizona. . . . .. . .. . . Louisiana.. .. .. .. .. NewMcxieo.... ... Oklahoma. ........ 732 8153 11,180 1,039 3,141 4,180 15,369 0 ' 11 44 92 125 217 261 320 114 602 336 244 580 1,182 168 0 2 2 4 89 93 95 0 1 131 1,226 213 238 451 167 1,094 1,171 663 3,172 866 827 1,693 4:86~ f~~rii~o ~iat~·. : :: ~:~~~ 1,492 921 5,046 1,511 1,523 3,034 8,080 "By the Army Navy Maritime Commission, Tl'cnsury and Foreign Purchnsing Missions: tContrncts [or less than $50,000 and all foodstuff contracts exeludod. tlncludes "orr Continent and Unnssigned." SOURCE: War Produation Board. 2,3~~ MAJOR WAR SUPPLY CONTRACTS AND ALLOCATIONS JUNE 194D-AUGUST 1943 (Millions o[ dollars) War Dept. o[ Com'rce Federal Trniping Housing Works Total Military· , Agenoy Ageneio.t Ageneiest Reported RFC Ageneics CAA 449 1,997 786 165,157 1,910 138 Total United Statcs& 159,877 Off Continent and 48 2 41 641 16,120 19 Unnssigned ...... 15,369 6 2 21 1 293 2 261 Arizona .......... . 16 43 8 9 1,260 2 1,182 Louisiana ..... . ... . + 4 2 6 109 2 95 New Mexico ....... 1 10 9 0 1,709 3 1,677 Oklahoma ....... .. 48 21 84 5,036 7 11 4,865 Texns ....... ·· ·· · . Total five states.. .. 8,080 20 52 84 42 129 8,407 "Army Navy Maritime Commission Troasu~~ and Foreign Purchnsing MillSions. tTho Uoited States Offi~e o[ Education and the Natio?Ql !outh ~dminist!a.tion .. :j:Tho l<'edernl ~ub. Iia Honsing Authorit:( opcrntinjlunder the NatIonal HOUSlDg AUmlDlstratlOn. &Ineludcs 'Off Oontinent ond UnaSSIgned. +Lcss than $500,000. SOURCE: War Production Board. VALUE OF CONSTRUC'l'ION CONTRACTS AWARDED (Thou8l\nrls of dollars) August January 1 to Septemoor 30 September Septemoor 1943 1942 1943 1943 1942 Eleventh District--total.. . S 11,571 $101,955 $ 1'7,814 $ 288,SS3 $ 630,868 4,590 10,606 4,85 1 72,889 103,116 Residential. . .... ...... All other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,981 91,340 12,963 215,944 527,752 United Slatcs·-total.. . . . 175,115 723,216 413,791 2,623,839 6,111,765 Residential. ....... . ,. . 54,080 126,708 67,493 673,585 1.340,221 All other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121,035 596,508 346,298 1,950,304 4,771,544 .37 states enst o[ the Rocky Mountains. SOURCE: F. W. Dodge Corporation. Consumption of cotton at Texas textile mills declined 7 per cent in September and was 16 per cent smaller than the record for the month established last year. Consumption of cotton at United States textile mills increased slightly in September bu e was at the lowest level for the month since 1940. Stocks of cotton increased markedly, reflecting record ginnings during ~hc monllh. At the end of September, cotton stocks in consumll1g establishments in the United States were at an all-time high fad that date of 1,930,000 bales and stocks in public storage an compresses were at the highest level for that date since 194 0, The average 10-spot market price of 15 / 16-inch middling cocton fluctuated in a very narrow range during September and the first half of October and on October 15 was 20.38 centS per pound as compared with 18.91 cents per pound a year earlier. Cottonseed receipts and crushings at Texas mills during S~p tember were the largest for that month since 1939. ProductIOn of oil, cake and meal and linters was somewhat larger than during September, 1942 and shipments of cake, meal and hull~ We!d markedly greater. At the end of September, stocks of cotton See cake and meal in Texas mills were the smallest for that dace since 1924. Cottonseed on hand at the mills was, however, at the highest level for tbat date since 1938. BUILDING PERMITS Perceotngl Pereentngo change valuation from Jao.1 to Sept. 30,1943 o~nnl'~n va un 49 Valuation (rom 19 Valuation Sept.,1942 Aug.,1943 No. 5 -85 $ 3,588 - 68 200 $ 171,40 17 - 92 44,975 424 520,448 -82 + 31 +284 64,653 273,656 - 8 781 +279 +130 25,019 - 41 957 2,168,988 + 4 147,265 962 2,863,174 50 +164 + 76 359,701 2,819,767 -81 4,188 + 88 - 52 27,807 434 - 19 366,303 ~5 - 38 750,035 2,891 5,369,050 61 +448 +11 70,667 765,916 -38 +205 685 + 9 673,520 0,768,400 ~1 1,610 +091 - 18 27,283 -'24 185,065 29 685 + 96 19,348 + 52 . 425 235,575 ~4 +128 296,402 2,159,909 8q 5,916 + 63 + 10 33,302 290,052 ' -31 751 - 53 - 62 37,307 037,549 -70 - 11 450 - 50 10,817 153,425 : : 198 - 67 -54 _53 $2,598,949 $25,748.682 21,563 - 13 +153 September, 1943 Abilene .......... Amarlllo .... . .... Austin ........... Beaumont .. . ....• Coreus Christi . ... Dol as ...... . .... El Poeo . ......... Fort Worth ....... Galveston ........ Houston ..... . .... Lubbock ......... Port Arthur ... . .. San Antonio ...... Bhrcveport, Ln .... Waco . ... ........ Wichita Falla .••.. No. 16 68 104 106 110 504 43 404 110 289 98 68 764 110 41 37 ::09 ----- Total. ..... 2,872 CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION-(Bnrrels) . dailY September, 1943 Increase or decre.~e "} 0111 l\verage product~ Total Daily nvg. 1943 production production Sept., 1912 AUg+us t '7,240 North Texa. ....... . .... .. .. . 7,327,200 244,240 + 22,165 00 404 West TeXlls.................. 9,867,200 328,907 +126,199 + '701 Enst 1)exo... .. .. . .. . .. .. . .. . 15 305 700 510 190 + 84484 + 8'018 South Texns................. 7:852:400 201:747 +100:897 + 2~'081 Texas Coastnl................ 14,517,500 483,910 +172,928..2:--:-.:: N th L .'1;'olal Texas. ...... or ou,.,ana.............. Ne,. Mexico... .. ............ 54,870,000 2,457,950 3,233,200 1,829,000 81,932 107,773 +506,073 - 16,391 + 10,601 Total District. . . . . . 60,561,150 2,018.705 ~ BOURCE: Estimated Crom Amoricnn Petroleum Institut. weekly report•. +!1~,g~ -+ 3:101 ~ +116,17 0 ___ COTTONSEED AND COTTONSEED PRODUCTS - - - - Texa. United States 30 August 1 to Selltember 30 August 1 to SeQLtc~~~SCIl 'rhis season L:I8t season ThIS sellSon as 55 Cottonseed received at mills (tons) ..... . .............. . 400,871 324,499 1,549,263 1'~~H22 Cottonseed crushed (tons) . . . . . 171,955 165,581 638,177 ' Cottonseed on hand Sept. 30 716,00 1 (tons) .................... . 273,585 194,277 1,001,422 Produetion o[ products: 100,852 Crude oil (thou88nd lbs.) ... . 192,871 48,735 48,155 207,205 Cake and meal (tons) ... . .. . 288,570 79,378 72,720 153'~~1 Hulls (tons) . . ............ . 151,939 40,509 41,375 181. Linters (running bales) ..... . 52,220 190,036 47,945 Stooks on hand Sept. 30: 56,40 2 Crude oil (thouSllnd lb•. ). .. . 14,609 53,003 13,414 J44,~~~ 17,356 Cake and meal (tons)....... 48,512 40,SS9 63,SS Hulls (tons) . . . .. . .. .. .. .. . 12 064 31,024 20,265 07,9 Lint.crs (running bales). . . . . . 55;543 178,711 31,500 SOURCE: United States Bureau o[ Cellsus. DOMESTIC CONSUMP'l'ION AND STOCKS OF COTTON-(Bal es) be'SO Sept. Sept. August August 1 to Sol~:':o.sOn Consumtion at: 1943 1942 1943 This season 41816 Texas mills ......... . . '. 18,294 21,669 19691 37,985 384'647 Unitsd States mill •... '" 872,109 959,732 842;260 1,714,369 I, ' U.S. stoeks-cnd of month' In eonsuming cstabmen~. 1930208 1786 153 ..' Public stg. &: compresses .. 10',432',611 9,713,415 ' , ..' MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW THE OWNERSffiP OF BANK DEPOSITS Demand deposits of banks have increased at an unprecedented rate since the outbreak of the war. These increases have occurred in all parts of the nation, but the rate of growth has varied between one section and another. In this district the deposits of member banks at the end of June, 1943 were more than twice as large as four years earlier. Heretofore, little has been known about the distribution of these deposits among various groups. In an effort to throw light on this important question, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, in cooperation with the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, conducted a survey of the distribution of demand deposits of individuals, partnerships and corporations at a selected group of ·banks in this district at the end of July. The generOtls cooperation on the part of banks which were requested to participate in the survey produced results which are representative of the distribution of deposits at all member banks. Reports were received from each of our 33weekly reporting member banks and from 77 other member banks in the district. The banks which participated in the surVey hold more than half of all such deposits at member banks in the district. Reports were received from virtually all size groups of banks and the banks were located in more than 80 cities and towns throughout the district. An analysis of the results of the survey on a national basis appeared in the October, 1943 issue of the Federal Reserve Bulletin. A sununary of the results of the survey in the Eleventh District is presented below. 5 deposits between $3,000 and $10,000. Consequently, more than half of the number of accounts in the $3,000 to $10,000 range at smaller banks belonged to individuals and farmers. Retail and wholesale trade and dealers in commodities accounted for the next largest group of deposits. This group accounted for slightly less than one-fourth of all deposits between $3,000 and $100,000 and 15 per cent of the deposits above $100,000. Large deposits of public utilities, transportation and communication industries account for about 12 per cent of all deposits in excess of $10,000. Financial businesses, including insurance companies, trust funds of banks, loan and real estate businesses are next in importance and large deposits of these firms account for more than 11 per cent of all such deposits. Large deposits of nonprofit associations, clubs, and churches are relatively unimportant. These deposits are located principally in the larger cities of tlle district, and account for less than 3 per cent of all large deposits. The combined results of the survey are indicated in the following tables. Table I is a summary of reports received from the smaller banks, while Table II is a summary of the reports obtained from the 33 weekly reporting banks located in the larger citias of the district. TABLE 1 The survey indicates clearly that a large proportion of the deposits in the district are concentrated in a relatively few large accounts. Although accounts above $100,000 each accounted for only a fraction of l'per cent of the number of accounts, they constituted about 40 pel' cent of the dollar amount of all demand deposits at the 110 banks participating in the survey. Deposit accounts above $10,000 each constituted less than 3 per cent of the number of accounts but about 70 per cent of the dollar amount of deposits at cooperating banks. The percentage of tOtal deposits in large accounts was much greater at the larger banks than at the smaller banks in the district. In dollar amount by far the most important group of large deposits (those above $100,000) belong to manufacturing and mining concerns, follOwed in the order of their importance by public utilities, retail and wholesale trade, personal accounts, including those of farmers, and insurance companies. . Manufacturing and mining concerns account for a substantial part of large deposits in the district but for only a minor part of the small deposit accounts. At banks participating in the Survey these concerns owned approximately one-third of all deposit accounts of more than $100,000 each and about onefOUrth of all deposit accounts above $10,000 each. At the smaller banks, however, manufacturing and mining concerns accounted for less than 3 per cent of the deposits in the $3,000 to $10,000 classification. Personal accounts, including those of farmers, ranked second ~lbong large deposit groups. Individual deposits, although large In the aggregate, were more widely distributed than those of other groups. At larger banks individuals owned only slightly lll.Ore than 10 per cent of the deposits in excess of $100,000 but OWned about one-third of the deposits in the $10,000 to $100,000 classification and at smaller banks owned a greater share of tOtal deposits than at larger banks. At the smaller banks farmers aCcOunted for 18 per cent of the deposits above $10,000 and 21 P~r cent of the deposits between $3,000 and $10,000 each. Indi"Iduals other than farmers accounted for an additional 26 per Cent of deposits in excess of $10,000 and 40 per cent of the DEMAND DEPOSITS OF INDIVIDUALS, PARTNERSHIPS AND CORPORATIONS AT 77 BANKS HAVI NG DEMAND DEPOSITS OF LESS THAN $5,000,000 July 31, 1043- (Thousands of dollars) Deposit'Aecounts between Deposit Accou!,ts $3,000 and SIO,OOO over $10,000 Oloss of Account I. Manufacturing and mining ...... . .. 2. Public util!ties.. transportation and commuDiootlOns... .. . ..... .. . . .. 3. Retail and wholesale trade and denI- 4. 5. 6. 7. ers in commodities .. . ... .. . .. .... All other nonflnanolal business, in. cludi.lIt con.struction and services . . FmancJa business . . . .. . . .......... Non profit associatioas, clubs, ehurchcs, etc .... .... ... . . . . . . . . . . .... ... Pcrsonal (including farmers): n. Farmers .. .. ... . . . .. . .. . .. . .... b. Othcr personal necounts .. . .. . ... Total- all necounts classified as to ownersbip ....... . . .... . . . . Gr.nd Tol.nl- nll demand deposits of individuals, partnerships and corporntions .. ... ... ... . ..... Number of DollnrAm't Number of DollnrAm't accounts of deposits nooounts of deposits 00 567 85 2,667 129 660 33 857 1,013 5,425 302 5,870 180 141 018 743 81 46 3,401 1,078 70 385 16 384 027 1,835 4,580 8,828 180 205 4,445 6,505 4,403 22,106 Number 1,038 Amount 25,207 J58,563 95,301 TABLE 2 DEMAND DEPOSITS OF INDIVIDUALS, PARTNERSIDPS AND CORPORATIONS A'r 33 WEEKLY REPORTING MEMBElt BANKS July 31, 1043- (Thous.nds of doll.rs) I. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Deposit Accounts between Deposit AccounIs $10,000 and $100,000 over $100,000 Clnss of Account Manufactu ring and mining: Number of DollarAm't Number of Dollar Am't a. Mcl.nl mining and metal mauuf. c- accounia of dcposits accollnts of deposits tures, including machinery and transportatioll equipmcnt .. . . .. . . 268 10,469 106 41,230 b. AU other manufacturing and mining ... ..... . . ..... . ...... .. . .. 981 32,076 244 93,004 l' ublic utilities, transportation and communiootlOns ... .. . . . . . .. .. .. 849 12,434 173 70,959 ll.ct.i1 and wholesale trade and de.le.... in commodities ... . .. .. . . . . .. .. .. 2,194 65,376 282 63,827 All other nonfinancIal businCS8, including constnlction nnd services ... ... 1,116 32,231 154 40,168 Financial business : n. Insuranco companies . . . . ........ 437 13,764 86 30,530 b. Trust funds in banks ....... . .. . 64 1,827 17 7,119 o. All other- inoluding investment, loan, .nd real estute business, etc. 606 19,061 67 12,085 Nonprofit nasoointions, clubs, ohurohes, etc ............... . .. .. . . ..... . 326 9,400 26 9,753 l'ersonal (including farmers) .. .. . . .. 4,007 92,990 182 45,127 Totnl- aU accounts classified "s to ownership .. .. . .......... . . 10,438 290,528 1,327 413,811 Grand Totnl-nUdemand deposits Number Amount of individuals, partnerships nnd corporations .. ..... . . .... . . .. 383,016 089,438 J40NTH~Y 6 BUSINESS REVIEW THIRD WAR LOAN DRIVE Final tabulations on the Third War Loan drive indicate that aggregate sales approached $19,000,000,000, thereby exceeding the $15,000,000,000 goal by $4,000,000,000. The record volume of sales during the September drive was more than twice as large as the amount purchased by nonbank investors during the December, 1942 drive and exceeded nonbank purchases during the April, 1943 drive by almost 50 per cent. Subscriptions from individuals, partnerships and personal trust accounts exceeded their $5,000,000,000 quota by 8 per cent, while subscriptions from corporations, associations and other investors exceeded their $10,000,000,000 quota by 29 per cent. Sales of Series E bonds during the drive amounted to slightly less than $2,500,000,000 as compared with sales of $726,000,000 during December, 1942 and $1,007,000,000 during April, 1943. Thus, the amount sold during the Third War Loan drive was substantially in excess of the amount sold during any other comparable period since they were first offered in May, 1941. The following table shows, on a national basis, sales of the various issues during the drive, classified by type of investor. FINAL TABULATION OF SUBSCRIPTIONS TO THIRD WAR LOAN DRIVE IN THE UNITED STATES By issues and by classes of investors-(Millions of dollars) Insurance Other companies corporations, and mutual associations Individuals ..vings banks and investors 18811e Total 2,472 2,472 E bonds ..... . ... . ......... ···· · · .. 565 5 F and G bonds ... .. . . ... . .... . .. . . . 261 831 103 2 2,288 S,vings notes . .. ...... .. ...... .... . 2,483 366 255 3,400 4,120 Certificates of indebtedness . . .... ... . 1,220 1,026 2,114 5,260 2% bonds . ... .......... · · ·· .. .. · · · 561 1,039 1,277 2~ % bonds ...... . .... . . · .... . .. ·. 3,777 Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,377 4,127 9,439 18,043 In Texas total sales during the drive amounted to $520,000,000, of which $262,000,000 were purchased by individuals and $258,000,000 by corporations, associations and other nonbank investors. Texas exceeded its combined goal by 24 per cent and its quota for sales to individuals by 30 per cent. Only seven other states in the nation exceeded their quota for sales to individuals by a larger percentage than Texas. Sales of Series E bonds in Texas during the drive amounted to $115,000,000. Total sales in Arizona, Louisiana, New Mexico and Oklahoma, which are partly in the Eleventh District, likewise exceeded their goals by substantial margins. Aggregate sales of the five states, which are wholly or partially in the Eleventh District, amounted to $842,000,000, or 22 per cent above their goal. The following table shows sales of the various Treasury issues during the drive in Texas classified by type of investor. FINAL TABUI,ATION OF SUBSCRIPTIO NS TO THIRD WAR LOAN DRIVE IN TEXAS By issues and by classes of investors-(Millions of dollars) Other . corporations, Insuranoo associations Totnl Isslle Individuals llompanics· and in vestors 116 E bonds ........ .. ...... . .. .. 115 36 1l n~d G bonds .......... . ..... .. 24 1 101 nVIDRB notes . ..... . . . . ...... , .. • 86 14 1 87 ~ertificates of indebtedness . ... . ... : : 62 10 5 136 % bonds . .. ..... . ..... . 40 76 Il 46 2~% bonds ........ . .. .. 12 15 10 § 262 37 Total. ... .. .......... .. . °Thero aro no savings banks in Texas. Noto: Figures are rounded and do not necessarily add to total•. 221 -520 Although banks were not permitted to participate directly ill the purchase of new Treasury offerings during the drive, the Treasury made a cash offering to banks shortly after the close of the drive. The offering cOl1sisted of an issue of 01 per cent certificates of indebtedness da.ted October 15, 1943 and maturing October 1, 1944 and an offering of 2 per cent Treasury bonds of 1951-1953. It was announced in advance that the Treasury would limit allotmeilts to approximately $1,500,000,000 o~ each of the issues. Total subscriptions amounted to appro)(Ji mately $5,500,000,000 on each issue against which allotmentS 0 approximately $1,600,000,000 each were made. In the Eleventh District subscriptions to' the 2 per cent bonds amounted to $156,000,000 against which allotments of $54,000,000 were made, while subscriptions in the district to the % per cent certificates of indebtedness amounted to $131,000,000 against which allotments of $47,000,000 were made. At the same time the Treasury made an exchange offering for an issue of 3 Y4 pel' cent bonds of October 15, 1943 -1945 outstanding in the amount of $1,400 , 000 , 000 , and an issue of 18 1 per cent certificates of indebtedness maturing November ' 1943 outstanding in the amount of $2 ,000,000,000. Most of th; 3 Y4 per cent bonds were exchanged for 2 per cent bonds 0 1951-1953, although nonbank investors exercised the privilege t of exchanging a small part of their holdings for 2 Y:z per ceJl bonds of 1964-1969. Virtually all of the maturing issue of certificates of indebtedness were exchanged for a similar amount of the new issue of % per cent certificates of indebtedness, dated October 15, 1943 and maturing October 1, 1~44. Thus, sales of Treasury securities to nonbank investors duri~1 the Third War Loan drive and the cash offering to commerCIa banks immediately following the drive prOVided the TreasurY with $22,000,000,000 of new money. MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW NOVEMBER 1, 1943 NATIONAL SUMMARY OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS (Compiled by the Bo..rd of Governors of the Feder..l Reser.. S7atem) DEPARTMENT STORE SALES AND STOCKS ;~o~'r"'-'_~_~-~u::.=_",:.:::; :OUO!'.!':' ::,";::'''"••",,!:.,,.;.::,,:;.:'_=-_,-_-'';''. ' W "",H' : " ,, :ao 160 t--~---!---l.---I--- I---+II----I 100 "0 r--_+--_1_--I--+-/\ - - ! - --loo .0 _-'-_...... 40 1 937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 Fcderal Reserve indexes. Monthly figures, latest shown arc for September, 1943. =r r ...... WHOLESALE PRICES - ''' ~ 1---+---1-_.-Ito I-- -+---+---+- 140 I~O 110 or. ---.-...- 130 /.\~ 120 J( ,.ltMftOCUC'T I .;4 I' 110 1-,..· ·/ I r---._ 100 1 00 onll"" '0 eo 90 ·1--- l - - - 1 f - - - l .0 )0 ~J-U~-_1_--.+------ 70 '" '0 '. .0 .0 1938 193 9 1940 1941 194~ 1 2. 94 llycau of Labor Statistics' indexes. Weekly figures, atCSt shown are for week ending October 16, 1943. ':VERNtf,ENT SECURIl:Y HOLDINGS OF BANKS IN LEADING OITIES 2. -'" IOUUI 2°r-~ llU.lOlli ., __ _ _ ~ ~ ""'24 ___ __ ____ ~ ~ ~.0 "r----~---_1_---~--_+-~~~16 ~ 12 r-___~---~----~--~~---~,. :~-=. ~- . =(-.~ ~------t------.-,!.r~~."" o -1._ 19~9 1 940 - - l ._ _ _" . _ 1 1 94 1 942 0 1 043 MEMBER BANKS IN LEADING CITIES ~-.~----, f '0 --___-!-_ _ _I -_ _-!-_ _ _-I-_ _--' 40 -----+---·~----~----~~j~\~ 32 ,1-----= 24 I, 1.) t.:...-+----J I. 193 9 1940 194 1 1942 There were increases in output in the iron and steel and transportation eq uipment industries while activity in other durable goods industries showed little change or declined slightly. Open hearth and Bessemer steel production exceeded its previous peak level, reached in March of this year, and output of pig iron likewise established a new record. In the machinery industry as a whole activity was maintained at the level of recent months although there was some further curtailment of output of machine tools and machine tool accessories. Total output of nondurable manufactures continued at the August level. Cotton consumption, which had been declining since May, rose 6 per cent from August to September, but was 9 per cent below the high level of a year ago. Shoe production was mai n rained at the level of recent months and was slightly larger than a year ago. The output of manufactured food products rose seasonally. Petroleum refilling continued to rise in September and was at a rate about double the 19 3S -39 average. The Board's index of this industry is substantially higher than the old index hecause greater weight is given to aviation gasoline and other special war products. Output in the chemical industry as a whole declined in August, as some further expansion in industrial chemicals was more than offset in the total by reductions elsewhere, reflecting readjustment of the war program. Newsprint consumption rose less than is usual at this season, in the face of increasing supply difficulties, and a further 5 per cent cut in permitted consumption of newsprint was ordered, beginning October 1. Crude petroleum. production continued to rise in September, reflecting further improvement of transportation facilities for petroleum products. Output of crude petroleum in August and September exceeded the earlier peak levels reached in December 1941 and January 1942. Coal production continued at a high level. In September the value of construction COntracts awarded in 37 Eastern states was at about the same low level as in July, according to reports of the F. \'(T. Dodge Corporation, and was considerably smaller than in August when there was a temporary increase because ohe exceptionally large contract was pine cd in that month. DISTRIBUTION Department store sales increased less than seasonally in September, following an unusually large volume of sales in July and August, and the Board's seasonally adjusted index declined from 142 to 131. During the first half of October sales showed a gain over September although usually there is some decline at this season. Railroad freight tramc in September and the first part of October was maintained at the high level of previous months. Coal shipmen ts exceeded the record movement of last July and loadings of grain and livestock were 10 per cent higher than a year ago. COMMODITY PRICES Il%Cl!'dcs guaranteed securities. Data not availabl~ PtJOr to 17ebruary 8, 1939; certificates first reported On Apri115, 1942. Wednesday figures, latest shown are for October 13, 1943. 2, INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Physical volume of industrial production as measured by the Board's seasonally adjusted index, as recently revised, was 243 per cent of the 1935 -39 average in September, compared with 242 in AUb'USt and 239 in July. 14° r--_+---I ---I--+--t- '0 Industrial activity showed little change in September and in th~ first hal{ of October. Distribution of commodities continued in large volume and prices remained steady. 1943 Clll. nd deposits (adjusted) exclude U. S. Govern~.nt and interbank deposits and collection items. isovernment securities include direct and guaranteed Osu cs . Wednesday figures, latest shown are for Ct. 13, 1943. Prices of grains advanced from the middle of September to the middle of October. Livestock prices were slightly lower, reflecting partly the establishment of Federal maximum prices for live hogs and sharply increased marketings of cattle. Wholesale prices of most other commodities continued to show little change. AGRICULTURE Crop prospects showed little change during September, according to offic ial repores. There was a further small improvement in prospects for the corn and potato crops, while the previous forecast for cotton production was lowered slightly. Aggregate crop production is expected to be 7 pe.r cent below the peak volume of last season but higher than in any other previous year. BANK CREDIT Du.ing the five weeks ending October 13, Government security holdings at reporting ba nks in 101 leading cities increased by about 2.5 billion dollars reflecting substa nti al open-market purchases during the Drive, and also, some purchases of bills On subscription from the Treasury. Loans showed a net increase of 2.2 billion dollars over the same period. Over two-thirds of the total amOunt represented loans to brokers, dealers, and customers for purchasing or carrying secur ities; in the last week of the period there were some declines, however, as repayments were made on the liquidation of the securities. Commercial loans, which have been increasing stead ily since June, rose further by 540 million over the five weeks. Holdings of Government securi ties by the Federal Reserve Systom showed little change from the end of September to the third statement date of October, but there were some shifts among the kinds of securities held. Treasury bills held under option declined by 200 ",illion dollars between September 30 and October 20, while holdings of certificates of indebtedness and of Treasury bills outside of the option accounts increased by about 200 million. Total holdings of Unired States Government securities by the R eserve System on October 20 were 8.9 billion dollars.