Full text of Review (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas) : May 1967
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business • review may 1967 FEDERAl RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS This publication was digitized and made available by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' Historical Library (FedHistory@dal.frb.org) contents farm programs and trade 3 trust operations of eleventh district banks 8 district highlights .. . . .. ..... ........ . . ..... 12 la,8m prog,-ams and trade The agricultural industry of the United States as a whole, as well as that of the Southwest, is One of the most efficient sectors of the Nation's economy. The gains in productivity reflect the Use of improved technology and heavy investroent in capital equipment. Increased output per roan-hour has made it possible to reduce the total labor requirement almost one-third during the past decade. The release of manpower has made more labor available for other segments of OUr economy and placed those persons remaining in farming in a more fully employed status. Efficiency in agricultural production has not been aCcomplished without creating some diffiCUlt problems. These problems partly arise from the fact that literally millions of individual farro producers could not compete for the resources needed in an efficient farm enterprise. FUrther, the agribusiness firms and consumers depending Upon the farm industry for supplies feel the effects of a rapidly changing agriculture. The nature and implications of the problems TOTAL WORKERS ON FARMS FI VE SOUTHWESTERN STATES THOUSANDS OF PERSONS 900 800 o SOURCEI U,S, OCP8rtnll.HlI of Agrieultur o. are of such magnitude that, for many years, public policies have been directed toward finding equitable solutions for them. Current agricultural programs are designed to provide adequate supplies of quality food and fiber at reasonable prices for domestic and export markets, to prevent excessive accumulation of stocks, and to maintain farm income at acceptable levels. In order to bring these allencompassing objectives to fruition, acreage restrictions, various types of direct payments, regulatory requirements, and export promotion programs have been utilized. Government programs instituted with the objective of directly influencing the level of f~rm income and prices receive the greatest attentton. The method most frequently used - and perhaps best known by the general public - for accomplishing this objective in the case of crops is acreage restrictions. In the Southwest, most of the major crops are under both price-support programs and acreage restrictions. In the discussion that follows, attention will be directed toward programs related to cotton, rice, sorghum grain, and wheat since these crops account for the larger proportion of the total planted acreage in the Southwest. Despite attempts to curb acreages planted to these crops, production has generally increased. The acreage of cotton, grain sorghum, rice, and wheat in the five southwestern statesArizona, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas - declined 9 percent between 1957 and 1966, but the production of these crops increased 20 percent. Acreage reductions occurred for cotton and grain sorghum. The tremendous improvements in sorghum grain yields business review/ may 1967 3 PRODUCTION OF FOUR MAJOR CROPS Five Southwestern States (In thou sa nds of units) Sorg~um Yea r Cotton (Bal es) Rice (Bags) grain (Bushels) Wheat (Bush els) 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 5,242 5,953 6,327 6,445 6,762 6,794 6,544 6,057 6,616 4,535 21,804 22,561 26,046 25,876 2 5,257 31,895 35,825 36,102 39,534 42,398 272,646 283,920 291,005 298,266 263,320 235,946 283,913 248,239 340,923 362,428 82 ,331 193,100 153,965 206,420 205,664 120,879 127,356 167,531 216,444 178,516 SOURCE: U.S. Department of Agriculture. per acre made possible a 33-percent gain in production despite a 27-percent decrease in acreage. Cotton yields also have improved, and the accumulation of stocks required a program change for the 1966 crop. The change resulted in a 31-percent reduction in acreage and a 13percent decrease in production. Rice acreage expanded 43 percent, and output about doubled in the past decade. Even though wheat acreage increased only 37 percent, production has more than doubled since 1957. CASH RECEIPTS FROM FARMING FIVE SOUTHWESTERN STATES p.Pre limin ary) SOURCE ~ U,S. Depa r tm ent of Ae r icultu ro. ----------------~ Acreage control programs are based upon past acreages and yields; but rapid adoption of new technology, favorable weather, shifts in demand, and other factors quite often result in an output of agricultural commodities which is different from the projected volume. The larger supply usually calls for a change in crop programs. Changes in Government programs from year to year introduce elements of uncertainty, and abrupt changes can be quite disruptive for local economies, as well as the level of cash receipts from farming. A recent example of a change in a Government program that had a rather drastic impact upon both cotton producers and agribusinesses occurred in connection with the 1966 cotton program. The new program permits a maximum acreage diversion of 35 percent and provides for two direct payments to farmers. Texas - the leading cotton-producing State-especially felt the brunt of this change. Many local areas derive a large proportion of their incomes directly or indirectly from the production of cotton. Agribusiness firms that supply farmers with items used in production and those that provide processing, warehousing, and marketing services definitely felt the impact of the reduced volumes of business. The cottoll acreage harvested in Texas in 1965 was 5.6 million acres, but the acreage in 1966 was reduced to 4.0 million acres, down 28 percent. The output from the reduced acreage totaled 3.2 million bales, or almost 1.5 million bales belo\\' that of 1965. The changing patterns of demand for graiJl crops, both in domestic and in foreign marketS, also have often necessitated rather abrupt adjustments. In the late fifties, a program of diverting acreage while maintaining high Government price supports did not reduce the size of crops harvested nor the accumulation of large carry-overs. The carry-over of grain cropS had reached unworkable proportions by 1961. Since that time, a goal of maintaining a balance among output, stocks, and disappearance ~as been given increasing attention. The reductIOn in acreage and a strong foreign demand have ll1ade it possible to accomplish this goal. The grain programs were rewritten in the early sixties, before the great export potential was apparent. Many of the restrictions placed on grain crops by the 1962 feed grain program have s.ince been changed in recognition of the depletIon of surplus stocks and the expanded export demand. Price supports and acreage control programs for feed grains are related to livestock production indirectly through feed cost and supplies. Although livestock prices have not been dir~ct1y supported by the Government on a contlUuing basis, market prices have been strengthened from time to time by Government purChases of meat for school lunch and welfare programs. The prices of wool and mohair have been subject to an incentive price-support program for a number of years. . Despite the growth in population, the productive capacity of American farms has exceeded domestic food consumption requirements. Thus, the Dnited States has maintained a vital and Continuing interest in foreign markets as an outlet for farm production. The agricultural exPort market has improved steadily during the past several years, and the value of agricultural eXports reached $6.7 billion in 1966. The increased volume may be attributed to the genera~ly high level of economic activity in eight tnajor importing countries. The industrialized n~tions of the world provide more than two~llrds of the demand for American products. ommercial sales have grown faster than sales tnade . With Government assistance and presently ou nt :cc for approximately 60 percent of the otal value of commodity exports. Domestic consumption of feed grains has expanded I br ,argelYJas a result of the greater numce . of animal units being fed . Declines in per aplta human consumption of grains have about ACREAGE DEVOTED TO MAJOR CROPS FIVE SOUTHWESTERN STATES MILLIONS OF ACRES SOURCE: U.S, Dopartment of Agri cultur e. offset the gain in population. On the other hand, increased foreign demand reflects population growth, affluence, and very poor crop harvests. Export markets currently take the output of one-fourth of all the acreage planted to crops. Over half of the wheat produced is presently being exported, as well as 50 percent of the sorghum grain crop and about 55 percent of the rice output. Foreign shipments of cotton in 1966 declined to the lowest level since 1958 CARRY-OVER OF SPECIFIED CROPS Un ited States (In mi ll ions of units) Year Cotton, August 1 (Ba les) 1957 1958 1959 11.3 8.7 8.9 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 7.6 7.2 7 .8 11.2 12.4 14.3 16.9 1965 1966 Rice,l August 1 (H u ndre d· w eigh t) 20 .1 18.2 15.7 12.1 10.1 5.3 7 .7 7 .5 7.7 8. 2 Sorgh um grain , October 1 (Bushels) Wheat, JUl 1 (Bus els) 79 .4 309.4 509.7 581.2 701.9 661.0 654.6 648.8 565.5 391.2 908.8 881.4 1,295.1 1,313.5 1,411.2 1,321.9 1,194.9 901.2 817.7 535.2 h Rough equiva lent . . SO URCE: U.S . Department of Agriculture. 1 business review/may 1967 5 and were the equivalent of about 20 percent of the previous year's crop and 23 percent of the acreage. The high level of disappearance in recent years has reduced the carry-over of all major grain crops to, or below, desired levels in relation to expected domestic use plus a reserve to meet emergency needs. In contrast, the carryover of cotton fiber at the beginning of the 1966-67 marketing year was a record. The southwestern states are major participants in the export market. In fact, Texas ranks second in the Nation in the total dollar volume of agricultural exports. The southwestern states rank high in exports of cotton, rice, sorghum grain, and wheat. The acreage planted to these crops accounts for more than 60 percent of aU crop acreage in the region; and since a high percentage of the production of each crop is exported, foreign demand is highly important to the Southwest. Furthermore, the favorable agricultural trade position is a great asset in the overall U.S. balance-of-payments situation. The value of agricultural imports in fiscal 1965-66 is placed at $4.5 billion, or $2.2 billion less than exports. The Government policies concerning exports of U.S. agricultural commodities are centered around Public Law 480, which has four major divisions, or titles. Title I establishes provisions for sales subject to payment in foreign currency. During the past 10 years, the total dollar value of sales under Title I has exceeded that under the other three titles combined. Title II of Public Law 480 is designed to provide disaster relief. Title III has two provisions - one for donations and the other for barter. Title IV makes provisions for long-term supply and for dollar credit sales. Total agricultural exports during the past decade were valued at $57 billion, of which amount commercial exports for dollars accounted for $40 billion. U.S. exports of agricultural products for noneconomic reasons have been increasing, particularly exports of some commodities. Much of 6 U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS AND IMPORTS (Yea r ended Jun o 30) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 7 rr=====~==~~~~ SOURCE: U.S. Department of Agrlculturo . the sUlplus wheat and sorghum grain has been shipped to India and other developing countries. Wheat is the major commodity sold under public Law 480 for soft currencies (those with fluctuating values), and India has been the leading recipient. Such shipments were mainly responsible for reducing the U.S. wheat carryover from 1.4 billion bushels in 1961 to 536 million bushels in 1966. The use of agricultural commodities as a stopgap measure while the country develops its agricultural plant has become an increasingly important method of assistance. Soft currencies received through theSe sales have been used, in many instances, by the U.S. Government to provide technical assistanCe and to pay other expenses in the receiving countries. The payment of subsidies to domestic exporters has been necessary to enable them to coOlpete pricewise. In particular, a subsidy has been needed for commodities when our support prices were at higher levels than international market prices and when most products were in surplus domestic supply. Another purpose of a subsidy is to help American exporters overcome the tariff barriers imposed by receiving countries. The tariff placed upon the importation of a commodity usually raises the price ~: the port of entry to, or above, the domes tt price of that country. Thus, if trade is to be condUcted, the American exporter must either pay a considerably lower purchase price or receive payment of a magnitude that will overcome the tariff. The present differential between U.S. prices an.d World prices is much smaller than when pnce-support levels for domestic crops were much higher. The price of cotton remained high Until 1966, when the support level was reduced ~ the .estimated world price. The artificially thgh pnce of American cotton had encouraged e production of cotton in add itional countries and, also, promoted greater efforts on the part ~f those countries that had long been producers. he producers of man-made fibers had received enCOuragement to expand output since cotton wfas less competitive. The expanded production oh for· elgn cotton and man-made fibers placed t e American cotton industry at a distinct disadvantage in world trade. The future of U.S. agricultural exports appea.rs bright, although not equally so for all rn~Jor commodities. The increasing world popuatJon w1·n PIace a great demand on food and fib er. The development by Common Market ~OUntries of relative self-sufficiency with respect S~t the SUpply of many commodities will neces1 ate adjustment in U.S. production. The under- I developed areas of the world will need a considerable amount of food aid, as well as other assistance, for a number of years. If these countries are able to develop their economies satisfactorily, they may someday become large commercial importers of American agricultural products, as has our number 1 buyer, Japan. With world conditions in an unsettled state, a relatively large volume of U.S. products will, no doubt, be exported for political and socioeconomic reasons. World food production will have to be doubled in the next 33 years merely to maintain the present deficient diet level of most of the world's people. The United States undoubtedly will encourage the underdeveloped, deficit food-producing nations of the world to increase their output. Procedures for accomplishing this task will require the best efforts of all nations. The United States cannot feed the world. The heavily populated, low per capita income nations do not now have, nor are they likely to have in the foreseeable future, an effective demand for a large volume of imported agricultural commodities. Therefore, assisting these countries to achieve a better balance between food production and the dietary requirements of their population may be the best ultimate solution. J. C. GRADY, JR. business review/ may 1967 7 t,-ust ope,-ations of eleventh dist,-ict ban/~s Nineteen hundred and sixty-six represented another year of growth in the trust operations of member banks in the Eleventh Federal Reserve District, as indicated in the recent survey of District trust departments. With their total revenue rising slightly more than 11 percent and with total expenses increasing almost 10 percent, net income before taxes continued to advance. For trust departments of the banks included in the survey, aggregate net income before taxes equaled 9.6 percent of total revenue in 1966. When deposit credits amounting to 15.3 percent of total revenue are included (credits which result from the fact that the trust department indirectly generates revenue through the maintenance of deposits), trust department net income before taxes equaled 24.9 percent of total revenue. Each year since 1957, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, in cooperation with the Trust Section of the Texas Bankers Association, has conducted a survey of the income and expenses of trust departments of member banks in the Eleventh Federal Reserve District. The survey is useful to trust departments in that the results help each department compare its performance with that of departments of comparable size in the same geographic region. Information on trust department operations in 1966 was obtained from 59 banks. These banks accounted for $17.8 million, or more than four-fifths, of the total trust department revenue of all member banks in the District. revenue Again in 1966, as in every year since the survey began in 1957, the great bulk of the total revenue from trust department operations 8 was provided by personal accounts. While revenue from personal accounts as a percentage of total trust revenue averaged 84.8 percent fof all banks in the survey, the relative importance of personal accounts, roughly speaking, varied inversely to the size of trust operations. Thus, in those banks with trust income between $50,000 and $100,000, personal accounts provided 97.0 percent of total revenue; while in those banks with trust income of over $300,000, personal accounts provided the lowest proportion of total revenue (82.6 percent). This differing importance of personal accounts was, of course, the direct result of the fact that the remaining type of account - corporate accounts - was more heavily concentrated at the larger banks. Therefore, while corporate accounts furnished 15.2 percent of total trust revenue for the banks in the survey, SOURCES OF TRUST DEPARTMENT REVENUE AT 59 MEMBER BANKS, 1966 ELEVENTH FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT INTRABANK CREDITS 1.3 % L2.6 % PERSONAL AGENCIES 12 . 7 ~~ PENS ION AND PROFIT·SHARING TRUSTS 10.3% 2.2 % 43 .6% they supplied 17.4 percent of such revenue at those banks with trust revenue of over $300,000 but only 3.0 percent at those banks with trust revenue between $50,000 and $100,000. Breaking down the categories further the most important type of ~ersonal acCOUnt was the personal trust who , lch provided 43 .6 percent of the trust revenue of the 59 banks, and the most important k'Ind of corporate account was the corporate agency, which provided 12.6 percent. CHANGES IN TRUST DEPARTMENT REVENUE AT 56 MEMBER BANKS* ELEVENTH FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT .. , . " TOTAL: PERSONAl.: ACCOUNTS ·,. ',., · • .. " I • •• ••• ALL ACCOUNTS . In addition to being the most +15 +19 +23 unportant source of revenue PERCENT CHANGE , 1966 FROM 1965 !or trust departments, personal 'Ban~s Which reporl ed in bolh 1965 and 1966 survey s. CCOunts were also the most raPI'dlY growing component of total trust revenue last year. For the 56 banks banks is one of the reasons their trust operawhich reported in both 1966 and 1965, pertions prove more profitable than those at the sonal account revenue rose 12.1 percent, while smaller banks. corporate account revenue rose 6.3 percent. In Breaking down the categories somewhat furother Words, at these banks, personal account ther, based on data from eight of the large trust revenue increased almost twice as rapidly as departments in the survey, the relative profitcorporate account revenue in 1966. ability of other types of trust accounts varied f It is Possible to obtain some idea of the relawidely last year, with estates being the least IVe profitability of personal and corporate acprofitable and corporate trusts being the most COUnts by examining expense data for the 24 profitable. Thus, excluding intrabank deposit com . lb ank trust departments which ' subcredits, estate expenses absorbed $1.02 for each ', me rCla dIVlded th' . . dollar of revenue, while corporate trust exelr Income and expenses 1I1to personal and penses absorbed only 60 cents for each dollar th corporate account categories. For of revenue. It is interesting to note that corCl~~~ 24 ba~s, net income before taxes, exporate trusts, while relatively small in the trust trust ng credit for deposits ' was 10.3 percent of activities of the surveyed banks in the District, revenue for personal accounts and 3.4 ~ercent for corporate accounts. Once allowance showed very rapid growth in 1966. Revenue IS mad f from corporate trusts increased slightly more ear' e or the deposit credit, however, net than one-fourth from 1965 to 1966. t . Ulngs before taxes as a proportion of total rust reve . nue rises to slightly more than oneth Ird fo expenses fou 1 r corporate accounts and to about one1 por:: for personal accounts. The greater imTotal trust department expenses increased nce of corporate accounts at the larger 9.8 percent at the 56 banks participating in both o business review/may 1967 9 the 1966 and the 1965 surveys. As in previous years, the most important component of total expenses was wages and salaries. For the 59 survey banks combined, wage and salary expenses comprised slightly more than one-half of total trust expenses. If other expenses related to wages and salaries are included - such as pensions and retirements, personnel insurance, and "other expenses related to salaries" - all wage and salary expenses accounted for 64.4 percent of total expenses. The importance of wage and salary expenses is to be expected, of course, in an activity which requires a great deal of individual attention and supervision. While wage and salary expenses were the most important component of total trust department expenses for the 59 banks included in the survey, there was a wide degree of variation among banks in the relative significance of this component. Generally, wages and salaries comprise a greater proportion of total trust expenses at smaller banks than at the larger banks. This relationship is true primarily for two reasons: As bank size increases, (1) officers' salaries as a percentage of total expenses decline, but (2) employees' wages and salaries as a percentage of total expenses rise. These two factors can be easily summed up in the ratio of officers to employees. For the smallest trust department group in the 1966 survey, there was about one officer for each employee in the trust department, while for the largest group, there was about one officer for every two to four employees. The decline in the relative importance of officers' salaries is more than sufficient, however, to offset the increase in the relative importance of employees' wages and salaries, so that the proportion of wage and salary expenses to total expenses tends to fall as bank size increases. In addition to comprising over one-half of total trust expenses, wage and salary expenses increased somewhat faster than total direct expenses in 1966. For the 56 banks reporting in 10 DISTRIBUTION OF TRUST DEPARTMENT EXPENSES AT 59 MEMBER BANKS, 1966 ELEVENTH FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT OVERHEAD OFFICERS' SALARIES ALL OTHER DIRECT EXPENSES 25.3" OTHER EMPLOYMENT EXPENSES 8.6 % 26 .7% both 1966 and 1965, officers' salaries expanded 10.8 percent, and employees' salaries rose 9.0 percent; in contrast, all other direct expenses combined increased 6.4 percent. The most rapidly rising items of total expenses were legal and professional fees (up 35.4 percent), "othel' expenses related to salaries" (up 31.2 percent), and overhead (up 21.4 percent). The increase in overhead expenses, however, was primarily concentrated at those banks with trust department income of over $300,000. net income Net income before taxes at the 59 banks included in the survey equaled 9.6 percent, or $1. 7 million, of total trust department revenue in 1966. This compares with the corresponding figures of 8.2 percent, 6.4 percent, and 7.4 percent in the preceding 3 years. Of the 59 banks, only slightly more than on e~lalf showed a profit from their trust operations m 1966. Most of tl1e banks which reported losses were among the smaller banks whicb operate trust departments, but a sizable nUlJlber of the larger banks also found their trust operations unprofitable last year. Of the 29 trust departments with income of less than $100,000, only a little more than one-third Were profitable; but of the 30 trust departments baving income of over $100,000, about twothirds were profitable. An even more striking demonstration of the relative profitability of large and small trust departments is given by the fact that almost four-fifths of the 13 banks with trust revenue greater than $300,000 showed profitable trust operations. A more detailed report of the results of the survey of 1966 income and expenses of member bank trust departments in the Eleventh Federal Reserve District may be obtained upon request to : RESEARCH DEPARTMENT FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS STATION DALLAS, TEXAS K 75222 When profits were adjusted for deposit credits - credits which of course increase the profitabili ' , ~ ty of trust departments - net income beore taxes for the 59 banks in the 1966 survey ~ose from 9.6 percent to 24.9 percent of total rust revenue. Of the 59 banks, 30 allowed Cred'Its for deposits. the deposit credit as a percentage of total revenue averaged 16.1 percent for eight of the large trust departments, it ranged from a low of 8.6 percent for estates to a high of 92.1 percent for corporate trusts. It is interesting to note, however, that the amOunt of the deposit credit allowed varies Co nSl'd erably from bank to bank. While the average . rate allowed was 3.1 percent, the rate vaned from 2.0 percent at banks with trust ;e~enue between $200,000 and $300,000 to t' percent at banks with trust revenue be.ween $50,000 and $100000 - a rather strikInrIg variation. Generally' the smaller banks a Ow a greater deposit credit ' than the larger banks It . Cr d" IS also interesting to observe that the e It allowed for deposits varies widely between d'ff I erent types of accounts. Thus, while Trust department revenue and profits in the Eleventh District continued to grow during 1966, but a significant proportion of the trust departments, mostly the smaller ones, failed to achieve profitability. Personal accounts, particularly personal trusts, provided the great bulk of total revenue from trust operations. These accounts also demonstrated the most rapid rate of growth. Expenses increased almost 10 percent, with wage and salary expenses - the most important component of total expenses - rising more rapidly than other direct expenses. DONALD R. FRASER summary business review / may 1967 11 district highlights Total nonagricultural wage and salary employment in the five southwestern states in March reached 5,592,400 by rising 0.6 percent - a greater than seasonally expected gain over February. Manufacturing employment increased slightly. Nonmanufacturing employment, however, displayed a greater rise than seasonally expected. Employment gains in trade, partly reflecting Easter season purchases, and in construction provided most of the upward thrust; changes were fractional in the other nonmanufacturing sectors. Nonagricultural employment in the five states in March was nearly 6 percent over a year ago. Manufacturing employment registered just under a 6-percent gain, while nonmanufacturing employment was slightly over 5 percent above March last year. Large year-to-year increases were recorded in construction, service, and government employment. In March the Texas industrial production index, seasonally adjusted, was at 151.6 percent of the 1957-59 base, a level scarcely changed from February. With a decrease in stone, clay, and glass products being the only appreciable change among the durable goods sectors, total durable goods production was the same as in the preceding month. Nondurable goods manufacturing remained virtually unchanged, with gains for some sectors being nearly offset by losses for others. A fairly strong month-tomonth increase occurred in the output of textile mill products, but a large decrease developed for leather and leather products. Total industrial production in March for the State was 6 percent above March last year. Boosted substantially by a marked increase in transportation equipment, the production of all durable goods advanced 11 percent over a year ]2 ago. The other durable goods sectors recorded significant gains except stone, clay, and glasS products, which showed a substantial decline in output. With a strong output increase in textile mill products offsetting a decrease of an almost corresponding degree for leather and leather products, the remaining nondurable goods sectors rose sufficiently to lift the nondurable goods index almost 5 percent above its year-earlier level. Department store sales in the Eleventh District for the 4 weeks ended April 22 were 1 percent below the corresponding period a year ago. The changing dates of Easter, however, make meaningful comparisons for recent weeks difficult. The 1967 period does not include any sales for weeks prior to Easter, whereas the 1966 period includes sales for 2 weeks before Easter. Cumulative sales thus far in 1967 were up 3 percent from those at the same time last year. Registrations of new passenger automobiles in four major market areas in Texas in Mardi were 17 percent above February but 7 percent lower than in March 1966. During the first quarter of 1967, registrations in the four markets were 7 percent below the same period last year. Cumulative registrations were 9 percent lower in both Fort Worth and Houston, while those in Dallas and San Antonio were down 5 percent each. Beneficial rains were received over much of the Eleventh District in mid-April, breaking a long period of below-normal precipitation. Improved soil moisture has furthered the progress of planting and the growth of early-spring crops. Based on April 1 conditions, wint~r wheat production in the five District states }s estimated by the U.S. Department of Agriculture to be 24 percent lower than the 1966 output and 19 percent below the 1961-65 average. The decline is attributed to smaller crop estimates for Oklahoma and Texas. The condition of livestock is improved, and the rate of supplemental feeding has declined. Range and pasture grasses are providing increasing supplies of green grazing. Calf and lamb crop prospects are good, with a large proPOrtion of this year's calf and lamb crops already on the ground. Prices received by Texas farmers and ranchers for all farm products during January-March Were 9 percent below the same period a year ~o. Cash receipts from farm marketings in the Istrict states for January-February were 28 percent less than a year earlier. Reflecting in part the continued pressures of monetary policy last year, the sharp rate of ~~OWth in business loans in the early part of 66 came to a halt in the late summer and ~~rly fall. Since then, commercial and indusfIal loans at the Eleventh District's weekly rePOrting commercial banks have shown little oWth . For example, in the period from Sepmb le er 21, 1966, to April 12, 1967, business o~ns at these banks increased only about $11 lllJUio n . th ' or at an unadjusted annual rate of less b a~ 1 percent. In the first 3~ months of 1967, US1ness loans showed little net change. f For the Nation as a whole, however, business 1oans ha . . ve contlOued to nse, although at a much hew par bank reduced rate from the unsustainable pace of early 1966. Both in the period from September 21, 1966, to April 12, 1967, and in the first 3~ months of 1967, business loans at the Nation's weekly reporting commercial banks grew at an unadjusted annual rate of approximately 7 percent. During the first quarter of 1967, the production of crude oil in the Eleventh District showed mixed trends. The January output of 3,573,100 barrels per day was the highest of record; however, output in both February and March decreased almost 1 percent. Basically, the decreases in output reflected an easing of demand. Also, crude oil allowables have been steadily lowered in Louisiana, New Mexico, and Texas. The allowables for these District states were lowered again for April and for May; thus, there will be further decreases in crude oil output. Nationally, the production of crude oil has shown the same pattern as southwestern output, with record-high output in January succeeded by month-to-month declines. In comparison with the same quarter last year, daily average production of crude oil in the District was 2 percent higher in the first 3 months of 1967. Output in January was 7 percent above the same month last year; however, during February and March, this percentage spread narrowed. Crude runs to refinery stills showed no appreciable change between the first quarter of 1966 and the same period this year; on the other hand, stocks of crude oil were considerably higher than a year earlier. The Texas State Bank, Corpus Christi, Texas, a nonmember bank located in the territory served by the San Antonio Branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, was added to the Par List on its opening date, April 27, 1967. The officers are: Rolland Wollitz, President; Joseph F. Irwin, Executive Vice President; and George M. Dunson, Cashier. business review/ may 1967 13 THE PER JACOBSSON FOUNDATION LECTURES The Per Jacobsson Foundation has published the text of papers given in Rome on November 9, 1966. The meeting at which these talks were presented was the third in a series on international monetary affairs which has been held annually since 1964 in honor of Per Jacobsson, the late Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund. Dr. Stefano Siglienti, President of the Associazione Bancaria Italiana, and by Dr. Donato Menichella, Honorary Governor of the Banca d'Italia. Commentaries on the main topic were provided by Mr. Marcus Wallenberg, Vice-Chairman of the Board of the Stockholms Enskilda Bank, and Dr. Franz Aschinger, Financial and Economic Editor of the Neue Zurcher 4eitung. Mr. Louis Rasminsky, Governor of the Bank of Canada, gave the principal address on "The Role of the Central Banker Today." Opening statements were made by As in the past, the proceedings will be published in English, French, and Spanish. Requests for the free copies (indicating the language desired) should be addressed to: THE PER JACOBSSON FOUNDATION INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND BUILDING 19TH AND H STREETS, N.W. WASHINGTON, D.C. 20431 U.S.A. - .... - STATISTICAL Sl:JPPLEMENif to the BUSINESS REVIEW May 1967 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS CONDITION STATISTICS OF WEEKLY REPORTING COMMERCIAL BANKS RESERVE POSITIONS OF MEMBER BANKS Eleventh Federal Reserve Di strict Eleventh Federal Reserve District (Averages of dolly figures. In thousands of dolla rs ) -= (In thousonds of dollars) Item Apr. 26, 1967 Mar. 29, 1967 Apr. 27, 1966' 5,034,440 96,58 8 5,131,028 5,212,355 97, 103 5,309,458 4,987,3 15 88,129 5,075,444 Comm erci al and indu strial loans .. ............ 2,536,541 92,551 2,493,903 91,Q97 2,312,84 1 59,216 loans to brokers and deal ers for 28,502 34,940 56,502 32, 173 35,002 47,836 U.S. Government securities ...... ..... .... . Othe r securiti es .... ......... ... ... . .. . .. loons to nonbank Anancial institutio ns: Sal es Anance, p erson al Anance, factors, 1,020 307,603 1,091 302,265 2,702 317,856 and other budn ess cre dit compani es • ...... 155,570 280,442 468,413 158,047 5,419 517,080 171,389 266,405 463,848 362,842 3,610 515'029} 155,560 287,091 449,492 112,236 7,858 Oth er loans for purchasing or carrying: Other ..••...••••..•...••••. • .••.. • ..•. Real estate loans ••............. . ...... .... loans to dome stic commercial bank s........... loans to foreign banks .......... . .....• •.. . Consumer instalment loans •••.•.. . ....... . ... loans to foreign governments, ofAcial institutions, etc ........................... Other loans 2 •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• ° ' 1,287,754 549,304 2,283,620 2,199,764 1,092,275 58,476 15,115 1,123,923 72,904 15,115 1,168,468 75, 137 19,899 126,613 624,904 267,167 150,548 622,403 262,953 107,711 610,177 355,544 7,747 1,007,362 967,756 Other assets •• • ..•.... ••.. ... •.•.. .... .. .. .. 130,544 64,531 1,025,828 716,514 80,444 476,865 4,503 329,551 118,649 66,625 732,238 634,752 76,355 443, 199 4,845 329,984 855,265 516,823 73.372 470,350 4,721 332,937 TOTAL ASSETS ......................... 9.970,604 9.717.348 9.440.547 .•••.. ....•..• .•.. .. Total U.S. Governm ent securities .....•.•..•... Treasury b11ls ••••••••.••••••••... • ..••.. Treasury certiAcates of indebtedness ........ Trea sury notes and U.S. bonds maturing : Within 1 year .••...........•• . ....... 1 year to 5 years ..• ••............ .. .. After 5 years ......................... Obligations of states and political subdivisions: Tax warrants and short·term notes and bills .. All other ..... ................... ... .... Other bond s, corporate stocks, and securities: Participation certiAcates in Federa l agency 10ans:Z . . . •. •. .....•.. . ... ..... All other (Including corporate stocks) •• ..•••• Cash items in process of coll ection .•............ Reserves with Federal Reserve Bonk ••••.. . ....• . Currency and coin ... ••.... . .........••.... .. Balances with banks in the United States. .••••••• Balances with bonks in foreign countries ••••..•.. ° ""'} 1,031,296 602,367 558,366 44,001 597,814 4,553 11 ,923 _7,370 644,169 492,380 15 1,789 602341 41,828 3,273 38,555 661,073 507,600 153,473 626052 35,02 1 2,987 32,034 618,857 475,909 142,948 587784 31,073 9,258 21,8 15 1,284,325 1,088,060 196, 265 1,238,118 46,207 4,302 41,905 1,277, 158 1,078,800 198,358 1,252,646 24,512 4,683 19,829 1,22 1,22 4 1,034,275 186,9 49 1,185,59 8 35,626 21,1 81 14.445 Currency and coin ... . •••.•.• Required reserves .•....... .. .. Excess reserves ..•...........• Borrowings •...•..•..•...•. .. . Free reserves •......••• •..... . COUNTRY 8ANKS Total reserves held .. . ...... . .. Currency and coin ....... .. .. Required reserves .. ..••.••.•.. Excess reserves ••.. ........•.. Borrowings •• • .•••...•...•... . Free reserves •........... . .. . . All MEMBER BANKS With Federa' Res erve Bonk .. .. Currency and coin ..•..•..•. . Required reserves .........•... Excess reserves ••••........... Borrowings . .......•.....•.•.. Free reserves ..... ...•..•. . .• . 8,484,361 8,413,916 a.o69,611 5,115,002 3,468,919 276,704 145,21 1 1,121,120 5,0 19,63 1 3,375,898 312,885 131,836 1,1 00,492 4,768,186 3,316,213 293,467 92,721 960,265 3,014 21,773 78,26 1 3,369,359 3,256 21,537 73,727 3,394,285 2,881 19,601 83,038 3,301,425 1,108,661 1,569,347 658,522 10,732 20,567 1,115,808 1,593,689 652,474 10,808 19,976 1,293,542 ' 1,440,95 1 544,894 3,344 15,954 800 730 800 730 1,300 1,440 Other liab11ities ............................. CAPITAL ACCOUNTS .................. . ..... 431,667 181,278 873,298 271,314 173,859 858,259 383,620 168,986 818,330 TOTAL LIABILITI ES AND CAPITAL ACCOUNTS 9,970.604 9,717.348 9,440,547 CONDITION OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS (In thousands of dollars) =======================================~ Total gold certiflcate reserves • .•. .. . ..•..•.. Discounts for mem ber bonks •..•. ...•.... •.• Other discounts and advances .... ...•••. ... U.S. Government securities ••••• •. .......... Total earning assots••• ... ................. Member bank reserve deposits .••...•.•..... Federal Reserve notes in actual circulation ••••• 457,070 2,805 580 1,770,17 1 1,773,556 1,03 3,685 1,245,813 426,1~: 6,9 0 2,6 1j 1,536,9~6 1,546,j 76 911,6 5 1,193,72 Eleventh Federal Reserve District (In millions of dollars) =================================~ Mar. 29, Feb. 22, Mar. 30, Item _______________________________ 1 ~96~7______1~9~67~____~ 1~ ASSETS loons and discountsl • . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . • •. U.S. Government obligations ••.......•.... Other securities l , ••• ••.•••••. . . . . • . . . .•• Reserves with Federal Reserve Bank ••• •. ..• Cosh In vault ••.• •••••••••••••••••••••• Balances with banks in th e United States . .. • Balances with bonks in foreign countries e .... Cash items in process of collection . •.... . .• Other assets e • ••.........• •• ... .•. . ••.. 7 833 512 8,692 2,300 2,293 1,110 217 1, 127 6 923 503 17,17 1 LIABILITIES AND CAPITAL ACCOUNTS Demand d e posits of banks •.••. . ..•...•. . 1,355 7,644 6,296 1,334 7,552 6,183 .. 15,295 278 237 1,480 15,069 389 242 1,471 TOTAL LIABILITIES AND CAPITAL ACCOUNTSe........... . .......... 17,290 17,171 Other demand deposits ...... . ....... . .. . Time d e posits ••.......•.•..... .• . .....• Total deposits ••••••.• •••• •• • •• • ••••• Borrowings ..•... . .. . ..•.•....... .. ... . Other liab11itles e .................... . .. Because of format and coverage rev ision s as of July 6, 1966, earlier data are not 2 Certificates of participation in Federal ag e ncy loans include Commodity Credit Corporation certificates of interes t previously included in "Agricultural loans" and Export-Import Bank participations prev iou sly included in " Oth er loans." :1 Amount includes deposits accumulated for payment of instalm ent loan s· as a result of a change in Federal Rese rve regulation s, effective June 9, 1966, such 'deposits are no longer reported. 8,939 2,353 2,30 1 1,034 227 1,084 TOTAL ASSETse ................... .. fully comparabl0. 2 394,896 2,089 1,450 1,880,934 1,884,473 1,094,84 4 1,249,134 ------------------------------------~ Total capital accounts e • .. ... .... .•. '" 1 .-/ CONDITION STATISTICS OF ALL MEMBER BANKS Total demand deposits ••••• ••••...• • •.•..•• Bills payable, rediscounts, and other liabilities for borrowed money ............... 616,085 57 1,200 44,885 626,594 -10,509 1,696 -12,205 Apr. 26, Mar. 29, Apr. 27, ______________ It_em ________________~ 19~6~7______1~9~6~7______1~9~ Total deposits .............................. Individuals, partnerships, and corporations: Savings deposits ••...•.•.... . .... ... .. Other time deposits ... . .. , .•... , •....•. States and political subdivi sions ... •..••... . U.S. Government (including postal savings) •.. Bonks in the United States••••. ... . ..... . .. Foreign: Governments, ofAcial in stitutions, etc ... ...• Commercial bonks •......•............. 640,156 595,680 44,476 635,777 4,379 1,029 3,350 RESERVE CITY BANKS llA81l1T1 ES Individuals, partnerships, and corporotions ••.• States and political subdivisions ............ U.S. Government .. ..... . ............. . .. Bonks in the United States ...... ... ........ Foreign: Governments, ofAcial institutions, etc ....... Commercial bonks•......•... ••... ..... Certified and ofAcers ' checks, etc ........... Total time and savings deposits ..........•.. . Apr . 6,1~ Total reserves held ..•.. ....... 544,900 2,302,459 Total investments ...•. '" Mar. 1, 1967 With Federal Reserve Bonk .... purcha sing or carrying : U.S. Government securities ............ .. .. Other securities ......................•.. 4 weeks ended With Federa l Reserve 8ank .. .. Net loans and discounts .... . .. .. ...... .... . ... Valuation reserves ... . ....................... Gross loans and discounts ....... . . . ........... 5 we eks ended 5 weeks ended Apr. 5, 1967 Total reserves held ........ . ... ASSETS Agricultural 100ns2•.•.•.•••.. •. .... . . • ••••. Item 85 43 2'386 2'05 3 '973 21 0 1,02~ - 821 42 1 ~ 1 28 1 7'482 5:7 83 1 45 46 '26 1 22 6 1,406 - ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~---~ Beginning June 15 , 1966, Commodity Cred it Corporation cer ti ficates of interest t~:~ 1 ~.~~~~;I::dor~is~~~~ts~,~rtic1pations e- Estimated. ore Included in "Other se curities," rather BANK DEBITS, END-Of-MONTH DEPOS ITS, AND DEPOS IT TURNOVER (Dollar amounts in thou sands , seasona ll y adiu sted) ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~========================================~=============================================== DEBITS TO DEMAN D DEPOSIT ACCOUNTS' DEMAND DEPOSITS' Percent change Annual rate March 1967 - Standard metropolitan statistica l ar ea ... RIZON .... Tu lOUISIAN·A. ~on ............. . ... • . .. .. ............ . February basis) 1967 $ : : :::: :::::::: :::: ::: :::: ::::::: 4,056,984 1,998,492 5,683,776 606,300 1,933,668 4,286,544 4,578,420 5,274,324 1,333,776 3,827,808 368,064 67,126,176 5,248,080 14,708,964 2, 111 ,220 66,590,772 625,476 3,5 14,872 1,240,080 1,544,148 1,179,228 931,896 11 ,852,208 1,185,948 1,526,124 2,063,808 1,789,212 ............................... .... $217,186,368 onroe •••.••..••.•. . ••..•.....••..•.. . :~~i~~I~':':':':::: :: : ::: : :: :::: : ::::::: :::::::: Beaumont- Port Arthur ••••.•••.. .... •..••.. . ••• Crownsvill e-Harlingen_5an Benito ......... . . . .... ~;~~T/L.·ii·:iL. Ha veston -Tex as City .................... .. . .. ~~}~~~~) :::::;:::::::::::::::::::::::::::: harr·Edonburg .. .. . ....... . .. ..... .. . . f~d~·go~i~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~: : ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ --- :::: : Tejarkano (Texas-Arkansas ) .................•.. ~~i?t~: ~~il; TOl ol_27 centers of turnover 3 months, (Annua l- rate NEW Shrev. port ......... ............. .... .. .. TEX MEXICO, Rosw.II ' .•.................. . ........ ... S, Abilen. Midi March 1967 from -6 -5 -6 -3 0 -9 4 -6 3 -2 5 0 3 I -7 6 7 8 -2 5 0 -4 1 -8 -2 0 - 13 March 1966 1967 from 1966 March 31, 1967 March 1967 February 1967 March 1966 8 3 12 -4 4 -I 8 8 -3 7 7 9 7 9 12 9 -8 12 -2 -7 4 3 21 0 4 -9 167,995 7 1,040 220,167 33,4 19 95,49 1 142,952 186,638 217,112 59,316 178,135 28,870 1,694,070 204,962 500,443 89,110 1,940,391 33,564 136,421 72,122 119,234 64,823 55,389 508,190 57,563 80,905 112,448 110,3 13 24.5 28.0 26.4 18.2 20.3 30.8 24.4 24.0 22.2 21.2 12.8 39.7 25.1 29.3 23.1 34.2 18.8 25.3 17.1 12.9 17.8 16.7 23.2 20.6 18.6 18.7 15.9 26.7 27.8 27.4 19.0 20.5 34.5 23.6 25.1 21.2 21.8 12.3 40.1 24.1 28.9 23.4 32.6 17.8 23 .5 17.4 12.6 17.7 16.9 23.3 22.2 19.2 19.3 18.3 24.0 25.2 26.2 18.8 20.9 31.7 22.6 24.7 22.9 20.3 11.2 38.1 24.8 27.9 22.4 30.0 19.2 23.4 16.0 13.8 21.9 16.5 23.7 19.5 18.9 19.8 19.0 9 $7,181,083 30.2 30.0 28.5 4 9 -5 - 1 -2 8 4 I 6 10 9 7 7 9 14 II 0 7 -2 -20 1 0 13 - 1 - 1 -18 II Deposit Sb 0f' 2 CO i Individua ls, partnerships, and corporatio ns and of states an d po I"I tlca I su bd'" IVISIon s. 1 lJnty NOTE . - as s. Figures for 1966 have be en revis ed due to the use of new seasona l adjustmen t factors . GROSS DEMAND AN D TIME DEPOSITS Of MEMB ER BA NKS Eleventh Federa l Reserve District BUILDING PERMITS o ~ GROSS DEMAND DEPOSITS TIME DEPOSITS Reserve Coun try Rese rv e city banks ba nks Tota l Tota l city banks VALUATION (Dollar amounts in thousands) Country banks Percent change -------=------------------ - 19 65, Marc 1966 h. .. . . I ~arCh.... . Nctober... DoV.mb. r.. 1967 eC.mb. r.. : January F.bruarY·· March '" ----.:..:.: " 8,278 8,788 8,847 8,914 9,098 9,352 8,902 8,951 4,049 4,047 4,064 4,061 4,202 4,226 4,020 4,106 4,229 4,74 1 4,783 4,853 4,896 5,126 4,882 4,845 4,894 5,674 5,726 5,751 5,78 1 5,934 6,091 6,183 2,462 2,688 2,595 2,581 2,575 2,645 2,721 2,738 2,432 2,986 3,13 1 3,170 3,206 3,2 89 3,370 3,445 ------------------------------------- NUMBER March 1967 3 mos. 1967 618 1,573 79 372 212 864 56 158 394 155 72 437 2,060 460 705 107 2,649 37 162 105 128 92 79 1,307 61 319 95 Total-24 citi.s •• 10,707 Ar.a 1967, ~a Indicoted Average April 1 1966 196 1-65 Atilono - - - - -- - -- . : . - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ~.isian~ . . • . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,296 920 1,214 1,172 M.;i~~"""""""" 2,414 1,540 4,752 97,372 ... :·:::::::::::::::: 63,065 otol 60,423 ott T·~l~~~~a 6tm ~i:,m ~. . ...... . . . . . 135,289 178,516 167,575 SOURCE , U.S~~~--------------------------- . . Departm . nt of Agric ul ture. 3 months, F.b. 1967 Mar. 1966 6,505 239 43 17 1,095 3,656 5,671 5,879 -63 193 -47 69 7 6 168 420 1,100 388 172 1,037 5,417 1,335 1,793 28 1 5,8 19 92 410 233 278 204 228 3,360 128 656 218 991 1,812 21,824 1,597 205 1,776 18,958 4,186 5,598 363 45,9 14 128 2,641 786 538 294 564 9,918 833 1.520 1,065 5,019 4,27 1 39,269 4,049 603 7,05 1 47,58 1 14,280 19,5 11 1,457 91,35 1 1,104 5,280 2,399 1,572 1,237 1,574 30,815 1,292 2,571 2, 11 4 -61 75 77 -14 42 -38 34 23 -36 -27 62 -66 85 -21 -36 -16 200 -17 -62 -4 1 52 -39 41 -33 41 - 14 -38 -38 o -62 -6 -66 17 -28 -33 -47 184 20 193 32 66 60 91 -6 70 17 -4 1 -31 -22 - 17 98 -9 26,386 $130,073 $302,455 28 3 mos. 1967 1967 from 1966 ARIZONA Tucson . . . ••••• Monroe-West Monroe •.••• Amarillo •• .•. . Austin .. . .... . Beaumont . ... . ~~~~~~~~(I=n=t~h~o=u=sa=n=d~s=o=f=b=u=sh=e=I=S}======================= from March 1967 $ 3,8 11 $ LOUISIANA Shr.v.port • .. • TEXAS Abi l.n ... .. .. . WINTER WHEAT PR ODUCTION March 1967 Brownsvlll ••..• Corpus Christl .. Dallas .. ..... . EI Paso •.•. . • . Fort Worth ••.. Galveston . .••. Houston •...•. Laredo .. . .•.• Lubbock •..•.. Midland . .... . Odessa .•••• . . Part Arthur .... San Ang.lo .•• Son Antonio •. . Texarkana .... Waco .•. . .... Wichita Falls •• 19 o 99 -72 -68 -58 -2 1 -1 14 -27 -20 -4 3