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t MONGJrHLG)( BU8INE88 FEDERAL REVIEW RES E R V E Vol. 40, No.5 BANK o F DALLAS DALLAS, TEXAS May 1,1955 ELEVENTH DISTRICT BANKING TRENDS IN 1954 E. WALKER, Financial Economist Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas CHARLS Banking developments in the Eleventh District in 1954 reflected three main forces: (1) continuing underlying strength in District business, which helped to push year·end banking totals to record peaks in spite of some slackening in business activity early in the year; (2) the progress during the year of the cyclical trend - recession, stability, recovery, which contributed to important shifts in the use of banking resources; and (3) monetary and debt management policies that affected both the volume and the use of banking resources. An examination of District banking trends in 1954 as compared with 1953 not only should help to clarify the interrelationship between banking and economic activity but also should contribute to an understanding of the role of general instruments of credit control and debt management in the maintenance of economic stability. Growth of Banking Totals in 1954 Although the business recession that began in mid·1953 and continued into the second quarter of 1954 tended to dampen local demands for bank credit during the early months of 1954, the underlying strength of business in the Southwest - together with the willingness and ability of banks to use available reserves to expand earning assets other than loans - contributed to the attainment of record levels of member bank resources, deposits, and capital accounts. Resources of District member banks rose $648,544,000, or 7.1 percent, to a total of $9,833,310,000 on December 31, 1954, reflecting mainly a $377,923,000 increase in net loans and discounts and a $215,776,000 gain in holdings of United States Government securities. The counterpart of the increase in resources was a $584,436,000 - or 6.8·percent - expan· sion in deposits and a $48,407,000 - or 8.7-percent - rise in capital accounts. Within tllC total of deposit~, demand deposits of individuals and businesses gained $326,898,000, or 6.1 percent, and time deposits of the same group advanced $144,877,000, or 18.2 percent. As is shown in an accompanying chart, the growth of major balance sheet items - with the exception of cash assetswas substantially greater in 1954 than in 1953, in spite of the fact that for the Nation as a whole economic aggregates generally were higher in 1953 than in 1954. The 1954 growth in resources of District member banks exceeded the 1953 gain by 59.3 percent; loan expansion was 56.0 percent greater; holdings of Government securities increased 8.9 percent, as contrasted with a decline of slightly less than 1 percent in 1953; deposit gains were 60.2 percent larger; and additions to capital in the later year were 15.8 percent more than in 1953. Another chart indicates that the larger loan increase in 1954 stemmed primarily from stronger credit demands connected with business, real estate, and securities transactions. The $14,753,000 expansion in commercial and industrial CHANGES IN ASSETS AND LIABILITIES MEMBER BANKS-ELEVENTH FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT TOTAL RESOURCES LOANS AND DISCOUNTS CASH ASSET S U. S . GOVERNMENTS TOTAL OEPOSITS CAPITAL ACCOUNTS This publication was digitized and made available by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' Historical Library (FedHistory@dal.frb.org) MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 58 since a business recession usually involves differential move· ments of the various components of business activity, with some lines declining at a slower rate than the aggregate or possibly even increasing, shifts in the relative importance of certain assets are likely to occur. GROWTH IN LOANS AND DISCOUNTS MEMBER BANKS - ELEVENT H FEDERAl. RESERVE DISTRICT 19~3 end '9 ~ 4 1954 TOTAL. LOANS '!t~1-1 1953 1n:U , COMMERCIAL. AND INDUSTRIAL L.OANS LOANS TO FARMERS REAL ESTATE LOANS CONSUMER LOANS LOANS FOR PURCHASING OR CARRYI NG SECURITIES o 100 200 300 MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 400 loans in 1953 was overshadowed by a $177,388,000 rise in 1954. Real estate loans, which rose only $8,687,000 - or 3.3 percent - in 1953, increased $47,125,000, or 17.1 percent, in the later year. The percentage growth in loans for purchas. ing and carrying securities in 1954 was more than four times the 1953 increase. The basic strength of the southwestern economy in 1954 is illustrated further by comparisons with trends in totals for member banks in the Nation. The banking totals that are per· haps most indicative of the tempo of local business activity are loans - particularly business loans - and deposits. Dur· ing 1954, net loans of District member banks rose 12.2 per· cent and deposits increased 6.8 percent. These figures contrast with gains in the Nation of 4,.3 percent and 4.7 percent, reo spectively. Of possibly greater significance is the fact that business loans of District banks rose U.8 percent, as com· pared with a 2.0·percent decline in the Nation. The larger percentage growth in loans of District member banks contributed to a 38.0·percent increase in net profits, compared with a gain of 25.9 percent in the Nation. Current operating earnings of District banks were up only 7.2 percent, however, as most of the $18,949,000 increase in profits before income taxes resulted from a $15,512,000 nonoperating gain on sales of securities. Member banks in the District paid out $23,054,000 - or 40.0 percent - of net profits in dividends. The figures cited above suggest that the impact of the recent business recession was less in the Southwest than in the Nation. Some of the effects of the recession on District memo ber banking are discussed in the following section. Impact of Recession and Recovery A business recession is likely to affect the assets and liabil· ities of commercial banks in two ways. In the first place, a decline in economic activity might be expected to be reflected in a similar decline- or diminished rate of growth-in such banking totals as resources, loans, and deposits. Secondly, The busiuess recession of 1953·54 was reRected in a decline of approximately 4 percent in gross national product and a decrease of slightly more than 10 percent in industrial production. For 1954 as a whole, gross national product totaled $357,200,000,000, as compared with $364,900,000,000 in 1953. In the Southwest the recession was notable with respect to its very mild impact on major banking totals. As noted earlier, loans, deposits, and capital accounts of District memo ber banks rose to record levels in 1954, and the percentage gains in these items in 1954 exceeded the 1953 increases. Three factors are probably of primary importance in accounting for the upward trend in banking measurements in a year characterized by less than capacity production. First, the general business decline was more pronounced in the Nation than in the Southwest. Nationwide, the largest declines in output were encountered in durable goods industries, which are not as important in this area as elsewhere. Second, 1954 ended in an atmosphere of revival and general business optimism, while 1953 ended in recession. The less than seasonal expansion in bank loans in the final quarter of 1953 was replaced by a more than seasonal growth in the comparable 1954 period; this sharp upsurge in lending did much to push year·end totals to record figures. Finally, the mone. tary and debt management policies pursued in 1954 were conducive to expansion of banking assets - particularly in. vestments - in spite of depressed loan demand during the early part of the year. Among banking assets, loans and disco unts are likely to be most affected by a business decline, such as that experienced during the past 2 years. An examination of changes in the total of loans of District member hanks in 1953 and 1954, however, shows little evidence of the impact of the recession. LOANS TO FARMERS MEMBER BANKS-ELEVENTH FEDERAL RES ER V E DISTRICT « to , MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW Offsetting movements in the different types of loans tended to conceal partially the recessionary effects. Changes in loans of District banks were influenced considerably by variations in the available supply of certi1icates of interest issued by the Commodity Credit Corporation. These certificates - classi· fied technically as loans but more closely resembling investments from a practical standpoint - tended to increase late in 1953 and early in 1954, when the demand for other loans dampened somewhat; declined in the third quarter of 1954 as other loan demand was developing; and then added to total loan strength in the last quarter of the year. COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL LOANS MEMBER BANKS·ELEVENTH FEDERAL RESERVE OISTRICT !.I I LL IO NS OF DO LL ARS The trend over the 2 yea rs in "other" agricultural loans _ which are more indicative of direct financing of agriculture in this District than total loans to farmers - is explainable primarily in terms of the effects of acreage allotments, drought, and declining prices of agricultural products, rather than the impact of the business recession. In particular, the acreage allotments on cotton and wheat that existed in 1954 - but not in 1953 - probably accounted, in part, for the dampened rate of growth of "other" agricultural loans in the first half of 1954 as compared with the year-earlier period. Moreover, drought conditions resulted in a substantial volume of emergency financing through Government agencies. M I LU ONS OF DO LLARS '. 1,70 0 700 / 1,65 0 1,60 0 19~4y 0 1,50 0 Agricultural loans of District member banks fluctuated markedly in 1953-54 primarily because of wide swings in the volume of CCC loans, which, in turn, were dominated by the issuance and retirement of certificates of interest. Purchases of certificates were mainly responsible for a $136,679,000 increase in agricultural loans in the last quarter of 1953; this expansion accounted for 66.4 percent of the growth in gross loans and discounts which occurred in that quarter. In the first 3 months of 1954, CCC loans rose $63,393,000, while total loans increased only $48,794.,000. The $73,204.,000 decline in total loans in the third quarter of 1954 resulted mainly from a retirement of CCC certificates that was offset only partially by growth in other loan categories. Finally, during the last quarter of 1954, $192,333,000 of the $365,664,000 gain in total loans consisted of growth of agricultural paper. 59 :-.. V / / 19!13 DEC. MAfl. JUNE ,600 ,,550 / 0 0 / ", S€PT. .'0 ,,soo ,,450 ,,400 DEC. foreign investment. In addition, divergent movements prevailed within the investment category. In the second quarter of 1953, business inventories were being accumulated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $5,400,000,000, as compared with liquidation at the rate of $4,800,000,000 in the third quarter of 1954. Moreover, new construction rose from a $25,600,000,000 rate in the third quarter of 1953 to a $29,100,000,000 rate in the final quarter of last year. Demand for commercial and industrial loans was relatively weak during the last 6 months of 1953 and the first 3 months of 1954, when recessionary pressures were dominant. Most striking, however, is the sharp increase in the last half of 1954 as compared with the same period in 1953_ The influence of strong recovery forces is clearly evident from the $196,270,000 growth in such loans in the period JulyDecember 1954, which contrasts with a gain of only $52,334,000 in the last half of 1953_ The difficulty arising from the influence of variations in the outstanding amount of CCC certificates on changes in total loans can be overcome largely by examining movements of commercial and industrial, consumer, and real estate loans of member banks. At the same time, a closer look at the trends in such loans serves to emphasize the fact that the business recession, in addition to its over-all impact on banking totals, contributed to relatively sharp changes in the use of banking resources. Although a breakdown of commercial and industrial loans for all District member banks is not available, data for the weekly reporting banks - which hold approximately threefifths of total member bank loans - are useful in assessing the effect of the recession and revival on demand for bank credit in the Southwest. Loans to manufacturers - other than those in petroleum and related fields - were at very high levels during the boom period of early 1953 but declined in the spring and failed to rise significantly in the latter part of the year. The continuance of recessionary pressures into 1954 is reflected in the depressed volume of such loans through the middle of the year, and the stimulus of recovery forces is apparent in the expansion in September-October 1954. In this respect, it should be noted that the recession of 1953-54 was characterized by markedly divergent trends of some important components of aggregate economic activity. Personal consumption expenditures were much more stable over the 2-year period than was total product, the decline of which stemmed principally from decreases in government purchases of goods and services and private domestic and Loans of the weekly reporting member banks to finance activities of firms in petroleum and related fields are considered separately from other manufacturing loans because of tlle importance of petroleum industry loans to larger southwestern banks. The effects of the business decline and revival were not evident in this field in view of the continued expansion of drilling activity in 1954. MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 60 SELECTED COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL LOANS OF WEEKLY REPORTING MEMBER BANKS, 1954 AND 1953 Eleventh Federal Reserve District (last Wednesday of each month. In thousands of dollars) Manufacturers of petroleum and Other manufacturers reloted products 1954 Month 1953 Jenuery •.••••••••..• $253,488 February •••••••••••• 256,412 March •••.••.••.•••• 256,128 April ••••••••••••••• 246,827 Mey ............... 244,865 June ••••••••••••••• 250,438 July ................ 243,696 August ••• •••• • ••• .•• 248,083 September •• •••••••• 250,047 October ••.•.•.....• 249,844 November ••••••••••• 254,241 December ••••••••••• 261,130 $225,572 225,916 223,344 229,214 226,913 232,818 237,487 238,484 237,950 241,313 243,042 253,767 1954 $120,451 117.os3 119,628 110,756 106,412 107,655 109,434 110,578 115,934 119,283 118,932 115,734 1953 $142,838 140,255 137,820 125,914 123,189 121,748 116,576 117,164 118,054 122,135 121,289 121,328 Further evidence of the close interrelationship between business activity and bank lending is brought out by the trends in loans to retail and wholesale trade firms by the weekly reporting member banks. These loans, after declining seasonally in January 1953, rose markedly through April. Aftcr mid-1953 the tendency toward inventory liquidation was reflected in a decline through September and what ap· peared to be a less than seasonal increase in October and No· vember. The reduction in trade borrowings continued during the first 2 months of 1954. Some expansion occurred through June of the year, but the decrease in the rate of inventory liquidation was reflected in the increase in such loans in September and October. The role of District member banks in helping to finance the construction boom in the Southwest is indicated by the trend of construction loans of weekly reporting member banks during 1953 and 1954. These loans, which totaled $127,147,000 at the end of 1952, rose 16.1 percent in 1953 to a total of $147,632,000. This increase, although substantial, CONSUMER LOANS MEMBER BANKS-ELEVENTH FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT Trade establishments 1954 $150,906 151,880 158,.437 160,922 163,390 164,151 158,399 160,519 165,748 170,092 169,855 164,531 1953 $147,760 154,606 158,235 164,206 166,080 165,997 165,018 160,300 157,308 160,272 164,705 155,476 Construction flrms 1954 $150,753 150,436 155,225 161,622 168,769 172,730 175,323 183,197 181,758 183,213 188,270 208,775 1953 $132,619 132,181 131,239 135,930 137,601 145,962 147,189 147,426 143,507 147,133 151,726 147,632 Sales flnance companies 1954 $ 99,684 90,489 97,624 101,945 99,669 107,336 106,999 107,928 108,257 104,341 106,158 117,322 1953 $108,197 107,132 111,290 113,553 116,507 113,766 112,942 105,586 104,613 102,795 97,333 110,144 was overshadowed by a gain of $61,143,000, or 41.4 percent, in 1954,. In addition, bank financing of final sales of newly constructed property contributed to the 17.2·percent rise in real estate loans of all District member banks in 1954. Changes in consumer loans of the District's member banks paralleled movements in personal consumption expenditures in the Nation, particularly spending on durable goods since it is most closely related to consumer borrowing. During the first quarter of 1953, consumer credits granted by District member banks rose $32,077,000, compared with a $4,333,000 decline in the comparable 1954 period. It will be remembered that in early 1953 the rising tide of business activity was bolstered by a high level of consumer spending, which, in turn, was stimulated partly by the rapid expansion of consumer debt. During the recovery in the last quarter of 1954, consumer loans grew $18,540,000, as contrasted with a $7,023,000 decline in the last quarter of 1953. ~ Indirect bank financing of consumer purchases is reflected in the trend of weekly reporting member bank loans to sales finance companies, the dominant lenders in the consumer credit field. The total of such loans moved in conformity with business activity, declining in the latter part of 1953 and early 1954 and then rising substantially in late 1954. 1953 and 19154 LLIO~S "' 0 78 7. OF DOL LAR S MILLIO,",S Of DOLL 0 1954 -" 74 0 =.--1 720 / 70 '" 7 80 -- ~ ~9" 7• 0 7 40 720 700 07 .80 68 0 66 a DEC. ." J VNE SEPT Loans on securities by District member banks rose $46,656,000, or 40.8 percent, in 1954, as compared with a $9,741,. 000 increase in 1953. The 1954 increase, which was concen. trated in the July-December period, probably was related to hi gher prices of both Government and private securities in 1954 and the advanced level of activity in the stock market. 660 " In connection with the liabilities side of the banks' statement, it may be noted that the impact of business recovery during the second half of 1954 was evident in a $490,343,000 growth of demand deposits of individuals and businesses, as • compared with an expansion of only $339,966,000 in the ~ sccond half of 1953. Time deposits of individuals and busi. nesses, reflecting a high level of saving in the Southwest, expanded at a fairly steady rate during the 2·year period. MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 61 These trends in member bank accounts indicate that the recession in business activity, although having a very mild eliect on banking totals in the Southwest, nevertheless con· tributed to significant shifts within the banks' loan portfolios. Perhaps of even greater significance was the substantial ex· pansion in member bank holdings of United States Gov· ernment securities, a development that is discussed below. monthly high of 3.09 percent in May.June 1953 to a low of 2.47 percent in the summer of 1954. The yield on the 3%· percent bonds averaged 3.29 percent in June 1953 but there· after declined steadily to a low of 2.60 percent in August 1954. Yields on corporate and municipal bonds followed simi· lar trends. In addition, rates on bank loans to business soft· ened slightly. Influ enc e of Monetary and Debt Management Policies Perhaps more important than the decline in interest rates was the underlying credit situation that the lower rates reo f1ected, namely, a situation in which the financial system possessed ample funds to meet all legitimate demands for credit. This condition helped to minimize the possibility of a cumulative development in business as a result of illiquidity and distress selling of goods and securities. Furthermore, the transmission of relatively easy credit conditions to all sectors of the market - as reflected by the decline in yields on long.term securities-assured ample financing to support the construction boom in residential housing and facilities of state and local governments. During 1954, monetary and debt management policies were designed to cushion the business decline and to create an atmosphere conducive to recovery. In mid·1953 the Federal Reserve policy of restraint that had been pu~rsued in order to curtail innationary pressures in the early part of the year was reversed as deflationary forces began to emerge. From late 1953 to late 1954, System policy was designed to promote growth and stability in the economy by actively main· taining a condition of ease in the money market. During 1954 the implementation of this policy involved two reduc· tions in Federal Reserve bank discount rates - from 2 per· cent to 1% percent and then to 11/2 percent; decreases in reserve requirements that released approximately $1,600,000,000 of reserves; and open market operations designed to maintain adequate, but not excessive, ease in the money market. Although each of these actions furthered the goal of cush· ioning and reversing the business downturn, open market operations - purchases and sales of Government securities by the System - were the most important credit control in· strument on a day.to·day and week· to· week basis. Early in 1954 the System sold Treasury bills in order to absorb a por· tion - but not all - of the redundant bank reserves that normally accumulate at that time. Later in the year, in May and June, the Federal Open Market Committee purchased a substantial volume of bills in order to offset a reserve drain stemming from an increase in currency in circulation and a decline in gold stock. Following the reduction in reserve reo quirements in the summer, the System liquidated bills in order to absorb a portion of the newly available funds and thereby prevent the emergence of excessively easy conditions in the credit market. During most of the autumn months, open market purchases were designed to provide ample funds to support seasonal loan and currency expansion and, at the same lime, contribute to business recovery. As the forces of recovery accelerated late in the year, open market pur· chases were moderated, and bank reserve positions were allowed to firm slightly. The impact of these monetary and credit policies on Dis· trict member banks is easily discernible in the trends in banking totals in 1954. The increased availability of reserves contributed to a volume of free reserves (excess reserves of member banks less borrowings from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas) that fluctuated bctween $43,000,000 and $137,000,000 in 1954, as compared with a range of $24,000,· 000 to $76,000,000 in 1953, and an average volume of $70,· 000,000 in 1954, as contrasted with S43,000,000 in the pre· ceding year. The availability of reserves during the year - especially the sharp increase in the summer in connection with the reo duction in reserve requirements - contributed to the expan· sion in resources and deposits referred to above. Not only were District banks able to meet all legitimate demands of local borrowers, but also they were encouraged to expand earning assets by purchasing CCC certificates when avail· able and Government and municipal securities in spite of the FREE RESERVES MEMBER BAN KS - ELEVENTH FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT ., 195J GRclI95 4 LUorl S Of DOl L.A S ( .... , .. "0401,,11,1' u", ) 14 0 '" I 40 12 0 I 20 10 0 I 00 4 k\ I." ~ • In the market, System actions were reflected in relatively sharp declines in sensitive money rates and yields on all maturities of Government securities and corporate and muni· cipal bonds. Rates on new issues of Treasury bills, which had averaged more than 2 percent during the first 8 months of 1953, declined sharply in the last quarter of 1953 and reached a low of .65 perccnt in Junc 1954. Yields on long·term Gov· ernment bonds callable after 12 years (but not including the 30·year 3?4's issued in April 1953) decreased from a W' LL IO'tS OF DOLL A o :~ I'''~~': o -~ o 0 o 0 a LIJ-, '=~l1: - J F M A M J I I J A 5 0 N u 0 o 62 MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW decline in yields on such investments. For 1954 as a whole, these credit activities resulted in a $323,156,000 expansion in nonagricultural loans, a $61,872,000 growth in agricul. tural paper - due principally to purchases of CCC certifi. cates, a $215,776,000 gain in holdings of United States Government securities, and a $26,943,000 increase in municipal securities. The expansion of investments in Government securiti es was facilitated by Treasury policies of debt management. In order to promote stability in the money supply during the recession and to avoid disturbing the market for long.term funds, the Treasury confined its borrowing operations to securities that were especially attractive to commercial banks. Cash borrowing, exclusive of bills and Tax Anticipation issues, was effected by tbe sale of Treasury notes that were attractive to banks both in terms of maturity and with respect to method of payment, which allowed qualified depositaries to purchase at least part of their allotments by credit to Tax and Loan Accounts. Commercial banks were also willing to acquire these intermediate· term Treasury securities in order to sustain earnings during a period of slack loan demand and relatively low interest rates. Thus, the Treasury reo funded approximately 50 percent of maturing securities (other than bills and Tax Anticipation issues) with obligations maturing in 4%, years or longer. MATURITY DISTRIBUTION OF U.S.GOVERNMENT SECURITIES MEMBER BANKS-ELEVENTH FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT O.c.mbo r 31. 1 9~~ and Olctmblr 3 1, 1904 was the case in some past recessions that led to more severe economic declines. Indeed, perhaps the most significant con· tribution of monetary policy in 1954 lay in the maintenance of an atmosphere in which liquidity problems of both business and the financial system were negligible. Summary and Outlook District banks subscribed heavily to these issues and also actively sought Government securities from market holders. Consequently, holdings of Government obligations, as noted above, rose $215,776,000 - or 8.9 percent, as compared with a $19,217,000 decline in 1953. The strelch·out of maturities is shown in an accompanying chart. In 1954, holdings of marketable securities maturing within 5 years declined from 82.5 percent of the total to 58.2 percent, and issues in the 5· to lO-year range rose from 13.4 percent to 35.6 percent. The shift into intermediate· term issues was especially pronounced among the smaller banks. From the standpoint of types of Government securities, the shifts in portfolio were reflected mainly in a $274.,714,000 reduction in Treasury certificates of indebtedness and a $409,077,000 increase in Treasury bonds. The availability of reserves that could be funneled into investments did much to sustain member bank earnings when loan demand was slack. Possibly of greater significance, however, were the profits obtained by District member banks by selling certain issues of Government securities at the higher prices (lower yields) that prevailed in 1954. Profits from the sale of securities were especially important among the larger banks and, for member banks as a group, were only slightly less than the total increase in net profits over 1953. Although the shifts in holdings of Government securities may be viewed as having contributed to a reduction in liquid· ity of member banks, it is important to note that the move· ment toward longer· term investments was intentional on the part of the banks. The reduction in liquidity was not the reo suit of a general decrease in liquidity of the economy, as Banking trends in the Eleventh District during 1954 were outstanding in several respects. Probably the most significant development was the growth of banking measurements during a year of business adj ustment. The environment of monetary ease fostered by System policies encouraged banks in this District and throughout the Nation to pursue aggressive lending policies which enabled borrowers to obtain credit at reduced costs and on more liberal terms. It is difficult to overestimate the impact of this generous supply of loanable funds in 1954. Not only were banks able and willing to make loans, but extra reserves contributed to an important growth of bank investments in longer· term United States Government securities. This latter action provided bank support to the Treasury financing program and enabled hanks to expand their earning assets in the face of the decline in loan demand. Moreover, many banks were able to expand purchases of municipal securities and also increase their loans in the construction and real estate categories. By actively seeking high.grade investments, the banks helped to sustain the flow of credit and, therefore, the flow of spending for goods and services - a development that was of considerable impor. tance in reversing the business decline. These investments and loans contributed forcefully to the construction of municipal facilities and to the high level of residential construe· tion throughout the year. Other trends of importance in 1954 were largely those refleeting the impact of the recession upon other components of the loan demand. The early 1954 decline in commercial and industrial loans was reversed by the recovery starting in the late summer and progressing rapidly through the • ,. MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW fourth quarter of the year. Another significant development involved the continued growth in time deposits, which reo flected the sustained high level of savings. Thus, while some banking operations in 1954 showed effects of recession, the year closed in an atmosphere of recovery and progress which allowed year·end banking totals to show a great improvement over those calculated in the depressing climate prevailing at the end of 1953. Economic conditions in the first quarter of 1955 reflected a continuation of the recovery pattern set in late 1954. Gross national product is nearing the all·time peak reached in the second quarter of 1953. Industrial production continues the advance that began in late 1954, rising in March to within 2 points of the 1953 high. Consumer spending, stimulated by a high level of disposable income and a growing volume of credit, has contributed to the upward movement of economic activity. Data for the District's weekly reporting member banks reflect the strength of the business recovery and provide a clue to the role of the banking system in helping to finance the upsurge in activity. During the first quarter of this year, gross loans of the banks rose $19,837,000, as compared with 63 a $3,120,000 decline in the year.earlier period. Of the major categories of bnsiness borrowers, only constrnction firms and commodity dealers evidenced a weaker demand for bank credit as compared with early 1953, and marked expansion has occurred in other categories of loans, particularly con· sumer credits. The weekly reporting banks, in order to satisfy the strong loan demand under somewhat tighter reserve con· ditions, have liquidated sizable amounts of Government se· curities as compared with the first quarter of 1954. The trend iu District banking totals during the remainder of 1955 depends largely, of course, on business conditions and monetary policies in the coming months. If the business revival levels off and is followed by a sustainable rate of growth, 1955 should be another year of expansion and progress for District member banks. A primary task of both bank management and monetary authorities is to assure that the volume of credit flowing to consumers, business, and agriculture is sufficient to support orderly and sustainable growth under conditions of relatively full use of the Nation's economic resources but insufficient to provide credit for speculative, inflationary uses. Success in this task will help to assure that business fluctuations will be reduced to a mini· mum. 64 MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW REVIEW OF BUSINESS, AGRICULTURAL, AND FINANCIAL CONDITIONS Department store sales in the Eleventh Fede ral Reserve District, buoyed by Easter buying, showed a sharp, greater than seasonal increase during March. Cumulative sales for the first quarter of the year reached a record high for this period, with an II -percent gain over the corresponding months of 1954. Department store stocks at the end of March were only slightly below the all-time high of March 1953. Agricultural activity in the District during April was centered around overcoming effects of lateMarch freezes which destroyed most of the early fruit and damaged field crops. Rains during the month improved crop and pasture conditions in the eastern areas of the District. Winter wheat production in 1955 is indicated at almost 50 percent below that in 1954. Cash receipts from farm marketings in January are estimated at about 1.0 percent lower than a year earlier. Refinery crude runs in the District were reduced appreciably during the first part of April, but crude oil production continued only slightly below the record level of the previous month. Texas daily allowables for May, however, foreshadow a substantial cut in District crude oil production during the month. Nonagricultural employment in the District states increased seasonally during March . Gains occurred in all industries, with construction showing the largest increase. Manufacturing employment surpassed year-earlier levels for the first time since 1953. E as ter bu yin g at departm ent stores in the Eleventh District duro ing the 2 weeks before Easter rose 5 percent above that in the same period in 1954 and exceeded by 3 percent th e previous record for that period, established in 1953. During March, department store sales continued the im· pressive showing of the first 2 months of this year; as a result, dollar volume sales in the District during the first quarter were 11 percent more than in the first 3 months of 1954 and were 3 percent above those in the spring quarter of 1953. March sales registered a larger than seasonal rise of 30 per· cent over February and were 15 percent above March 1954. The substantial March gain over the year· earlier figure was helped by the earlier Easter season this year. The seasonally adjusted sales index reached 129 in March, compared with 125 in February and 115 in March 1954. The demand for consumer durable goods continued to be a prime factor in maintaining District department store sales at a high level. During March, sales of homefurnishings, which were approximately 18 percent of total sales, rose 17 percent above March 1954. The principal items accounting . for the increase were major household appliances, up 30 percent ; domestic floor coverings, up 27 percent ; and radios and television sets, up 21 percent. Sales of furniture and bedding, with a 9-percent gain over last year, were the highest for any March of record. March sales of soft goods, mainly wearin g apparel, were 13 percent above those of a year earlier. The largest gains were in sales of women's and children's shoes, which rose RETAil TRADE STATISTICS (Percentage change' The value of construction contract awards in the District increased markedly in March ; nonresidential construction awards rose 59 percent, but residential awards declined 8 percent. Total awards were 42 percent higher than in March 1954 . Gross loans and discounts of the District's weekly reporting member banks rose $20,271,000 during the 4 weeks ended April 20, reflecting sizable increases in business loans and consumer credits. Agricultural loans declined substantially in connection with retirement of wheat loans by the Commodity Credit Corporation ~n April 1. A $132,607,000 expansion in deposits enabled the banks to add $61,842,000 to their holdings of United States Government securities. STOCKS) NET SALES Mt;u. 1955 from March DEPARTMENT STORES Tota l S eventh District ••.•• •• • •• • •• Cor pus Chrisfi • • ••• • •• • .•• •• ••• • • Dallas • •• • •• •••. • •• . •••••.• • • • • EI Po so • • •• •• • • • • • • •••••• • •• • . • Fort Worth ••• • •••• • • •• •• •• •• •• • Houston •• •• • •••• • ••••••••• • • • •• Shreve p ort, La •• • • •••• • ••••••• •• • Waco •• ••• •• •• •• •••• •• • ••• • • • • O ther cities • • • ••• ••• • • • •• • •• • • • • FURNITURE STO RES Total Eleventh Dist rict • • • ••• • ••• • •• Austin ••• . •• • Dallas • . o. o. o. HOl.I$l ono • . .• . Port Ar thur • • •••• • • • ••• • •••• • ••• San An tonio • • ••••••••••.•••• .• • O ther cities • • HO USEHOLD APPLIANCE STORES T0101 Eleventh Distr ict • • ••• ••• ••••• Dallas •• • o. 0 0 0 I ••• • 0 0 • •• • 00 • • • • • ••• 0 • •• • •• •••• ••• • •• ••• • •• • 0 •• ••• • • • •••• • •••• • •••• • • •• Stock, ot end of month. • • • 0 •• ••• 0 • • • •• 0 • 0 Feb . 195~ line of trade by area 1955 15 22 18 17 9 11 9 17 16 30 28 22 2' 27 3' 3' 31 18 7 29 27 28 13 5 6 -17 11 10 5 12 10 11 11 22 17 ~O Ma r. 1955 f rom 3 mo. 1955 comp o with 3 mo. 1954 Ma rc h Fe b. 195 4 1955 11 18 14 12 9 8 S 11 12 3 12 6 2 8 - 2 6 -3 3 9 13 6 10 9 11 12 12 9 20 3 -1 6 27 15 -3 - 7 -2 9 12 5 12 1 2S 22 31 3 I' 7 ~ 6 4 65 MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW INDEXES OF DEPA~TMENT STORE SALES AND STOCKS 11947-49 (Number) AOJUSTED I UNADJUSTED Area SAN ANTONIO MARKET FORT WORTH MARKET March March February March March Class 1955 1954 1955 1955 1954 February 1955 Cattle ......... . 53,452 43,679 U,266 57,540 55.582 11,961 35,343 13,818 16,339 15,004 60.612 16,061 57,631 132,908 18.857 Calves ......... . 3,584 120,078 127,295 3,283 17,392 Mar. Feb. Jen. Mar. Mor. Feb. Jan. Mer. 1955 1955 1955 1954 1955 1955 1955 1954 SALES-Doil y overage Eleventh District •• • • •• •••• •• Dallas ..............•..•.. 117 116 Houston • •••• .• ••••• •••••• • 133 STOCKS- End of month eleventh District .. .. . ......• 141p 1 LIVESTOCK RECEIPTS = 100) 101 107 112 109, 110 122 102 98 120 129 122 148 125 126 143 138 154 115 106 137 129r 118r 136 132p 132r 131, 127 137r 67,27.4Sheep ..... ... . . 138,923 Hogs • ••••••••• • I 10,035 Includes goats. Adjusted for seasonal variation. r-Re.,i,.d . p-Preliminary. 17 percent; men's and boys' wear, 17 percent; women's and misses' ready-to-wear, 14 percent; women's and misses' ready-to-wear accessories, 12 percent; and sales of women's and misses' dresses, 13 percent_ Credit purchases at District department stores during March were substantially above those a year earlier but accounted for about the same proportion of total sales_ Cash purchases in both February and March represented 32 percent of total sales, compared with 34 percent in March 1954. As in February, instahnent sales were 14 percent of total sales, compared with 12 percent in March last year. Charge account sales represented 54 percent of total sales, the same as both a month ago and a year ago. Compared with a year earlier, charge accounts and instalment accounts outstanding at the end of March were up 8 percent and 6 percent, respectively, reflecting the higher level of sales in recent months. However, instahnent credit was unchanged from February, and charge accounts were rednced 4 percent. Department store stocks in the District at the end of March showed the usual seasonal increase from February and, for the first time this year, were above the 1954 level. Stocks were only slightly below the March record in 1953 the year when department store inventories were at an alllime high. Inventories at the end of March were 3 percent higher than a year ago and 9 percent above tl,e end of February. Stocks on order were up 24 percent from the same dale last year but were down seasonally 16 percent from February. Sales of District furniture stores during March showed a less than seasonal increase over February but were 18 percent higher than in March 1954. Cumulative sales for the first quarter were 20 percent higher than in the same period of last year. Furniture store inventories rose 9 percent during March and at the end of the month were 3 percent higher lhan a year earlier. part of March. Only the extreme southern part of Texas, including the Lower Rio Grande Valley and the adjacent gulf coast area, escaped subfreezing temperatures. Hard freezes caused an almost complete loss of peach, pear, and plum crops; and a large acreage of corn, grain sorghums, cotton, and vegetables was damaged severely. Some of the more advanced small grains were killed, but most of the acreage will recover if favorable growing conditions prevail. The top growth of grasses and clovers was damaged, and spring forage in western range areas was retarded, necessitating increased supplemental feeding of livestock. Following the freezes, light to heavy rains - ranging up to inch in the northern High Plains and to as much as 5 inches in east Texas - fell at various times during April. Most of the precipitation occurred east of a line from Wichita Falls through Abilene and San Antonio and north of a line from San Antonio to Galveston. Strong winds and hail caused some damage to crops, mostly in counties along the Red River. The rains provided much-needed moisture for replanting freeze·damaged crops and for maintaining forage development. Dry-land wheat in the Texas Panhandle and eastern New Mexico was benefited, but strong winds dissipated much of the moisture. 112 Acreages of corn and sorghums killed by the freezes have been replanted in most of the Blacklands, Coastal Bend, and central and eastern counties of Texas; and additional acreages have been seeded to these crops. Planling of grain sorghums is under way in the southern and eastern parts of the Low Rolling Plains. In the Coastal Bend area, colton development was retarded by the low temperatures, and some fields had to be replanted. Cotton planting is progressing rapidly in the southern valleys of New Mexico and Arizona, and considerable land is ready for seeding of both row and FARM COMMODITY PRICES Top Prices Paid in local Southwest Markets Week ended Commodity and market COnON, Middling 1S / 16-inch, Dallas .... WHEAT, No.1 hard. Fort Worth ..•. . .. •.. OATS, No.2 white, Fort Worth ....... .... Agricultural aCtivIty in the District during the past month was devoted largely to overcoming the effects of severe freeze damage caused by two cold fronts during the latter CORN, No.2 y.llow, fort Worth . •• . .•... SORGHUMS, No.2 y.llow, fort Worth .. •. HOGS, Choice. Fort Worth • ............. SLAUGHTER STEERS. Choice, Fort Worth ••. SLAUGHTER CALVES, Choice, Fort Worth... STOCKER STEERS, Choice. Fort Worth . .... SLAUGHTER SPRING LAMBS, Choice, Fort Worth ................•• . ..•......• BROILERS, south Texo s• . ... .... ...••. .. • Compa rable Comparable week week Unit ApriI2!,1955 las' month lb. bu. bu. bu. ,.... cwt. ,.... cwt. cwt. cwt. lb. S .3245 2.71 .99¥.. 2.85 17.75 25.00 22.00 22.50 $ .3280 2.67 .971.4 1.76Y2 2.62 17.00 25.00 22.00 22.50 22.00 .29 23.50 .30 1.861,4 last year .3380 2.72 1.02* 1.87 2.95 28.50 24.00 22.50 22.00 25.50 .24 MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 66 WINTER WHEAT PRODUCTION CASH RECEIPTS FROM FARM MARKETINGS Four Southwestern Stales Five Southwestern Slates (In thousands of bushel,) (In thousand. of dollars) 1955 Indicated April 1 Jonuary Total •••...••...••...•••••••... . 51,590 New Mexico ...................... . Oklahoma ••••........•.••••.•. ..• . Area 1954 Arizon<l ••• . •• •••• • •••••• ••• •• , . ••• .• $ 46,432 31,744 15,429 34,157 145,928 $ 52,531 42.861 16,049 38,327 153,287 Totar ..•..... . ...••. . .•• ....•.... • Texas .... •.. ........• .•.•.. ..... . 800 944 36,922 12,924 Arizona ••..............•.•.... .. .. 1955 Texas .• ... . .......... ............. . A..a $273,690 $303,055 1954 588 400 30,894 604 2,867 79,304 55,404 102,652 138,179 70,770 Louisiana ••••.•.•••••••••••••.•••••• . New Mexico •.•.....•.....•.•......•. Oklahoma •••.......• .•. . , .•..•.••.• . SOURCE: United Stotes Department of Agriculture. SOURCE: United Stales Department of Agriculture. feed crops. Rice planting is under way in Texas and Louisi· ana, and peanuts in south Texas are up to a stand but are in need of moisture. Field work generally is active in the commercial vegetable areas of Texas, although soils are dry in nonirrigated south Texas districts. Harvesting of onions is continuing in the Winter Garden and Coastal Bend areas, but crop prospects have been reduced because of continued dry weather. Tomato harvest is progressing rapidly in the Lower Valley. Water· melons have been replanted in southern and central coun· ties, and a large acreage has been seeded in east Texas. Spring pastures in the Blacklands, eastern, and most upper coastal counties of Texas are making good growth. Ade· quate moisture in these areas practically assures a surplus supply of green feed until clovers and rescue grasses mature. Grass and weeds are providing some feed in scattered parts of the eastern Plateau, Cross Timbers, and Low Rolling Plains, but additional moisture is needed. Ranges are in poor condition in New Mexico, Arizona, and the High Plains, western Plateau, Trans·Pecos, and southern counties of Texas. The condition of cattle and calves in the eastern third of the District has improved as green feed has become available, but in the western range areas, cattle are being maintained by heavy supplemental feeding, according to the United States Department of Agriculture. Sheep are reported in below.average condition for this time of year in all parts of the western range areas of the District. Lambing is well advanced, and losses have been relatively light. The number of cattle and calves on feed in the 14 major feeding states on April 1 is estimated at 4,547,000 head12 percent larger than on the same date last year, according to the Department of Agriculture. Ahnost half of the cattle are expected to be marketed by the end of June this year. Commercial production of 1955 spring.crop vegetables in Texas is indicated at 16 percent less than in 1954 and 10 percent below the 1949·53 average, according to the Depart· ment of Agriculture. Less than average production is indio ca ted for all crops except early spring onions and tomatoes. The acreage for harvest is 14 percent lower than in 1954 and 10 percent below the average, with most of the reduction in snap beans, sweet corn, cucumbers, and early spring potatoes. Low temperatures in January and February and strong, cold winds in March are responsible for reduced production. Cash receipts from farm marketings in District states in January this year are estimated at $273,690,000 by the De· partment of Agriculture, or almost 10 percent below those in January 1954. Cash receipts from crops in January were 12 percent below crop receipts a year earlier, while live· stock receipts declined almost 5 percent. During the 4 weeks ended April 20, gross loans and discounts of the District's weekly reporting member banks increased $20,271,000, reflect· ing expansion in all categories ex· cept commercial, industrial, and agricultural loans and loans to banks. Of the major loan classes, "all other" loansmainly consumer credits - showed the greatest gain with a $17,528,000 increase, evidencing substantial reliance by con· sumers on credit to finan ce the rising level of spending. Divergent movements prevailed within the total of commercial, industrial, and agricultural loans, inasmuch as a sizable expansion in business loans was more than offset by a large retirement of wheat loans by the Commodity Credit Corporation on Aprill. Among business borrowers, construc· GROSS DEMAND AND TIME DEPOSITS OF MEMBER BANKS Eleventh Federal Reserve District Indicated production of 1955·crop winter wheat in the Nation on April 1 is 662,252,000 bushels, reports the Depart. ment of Agriculture. This figure is about 2 percent less than indicated production on December 1 last year and about one· sixth smaller than the 1954 crop of 790,737,000 bushels. In four of the District states, the 1955 indicated production of winter wheat is 51,590,000 bushels, which is almost 50 percent below production in 1954 and about 63 percent lower than the 1944-53 average. fAv.rOSles of daily figurel. In thousands of dollars) COMBINED TOTAL Gross Dcte demend TIme RESERVE CITY 8ANKS Gran demand Time COUNTRY 8ANKS Gross demand TIme March 1953 ... $6,822,777 $ 829,712 53.251,351 $444,623 53,571.4265385.089 March 1954 ... 6,821.245 1,031 ,005 3,277,128 579.324 3.544,117 451,681 Nav. 1954 .... 7,464.379 1,126,793 3,650,354 635,036 3,814,025 491,757 Dec. 1954 . . .. 7,551,892 1,131 ,996 3,687,178 629,5 48 3,864,714 502,448 Jan. 1955 ..... 7 ,594,9 52 1,155,178 3,679,808 644,814 3,915,144 510,364 feb. 1955 .... 7 ,329,237 1,1 70,172 3.504,599 652,808 3.824,638 517,364 March 1955 . . . 7,237,908 1,202,162 3.485,392 682.916 3.752,516 519,246 4 67 MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW CONDITION STATISTICS OF WEEKLY REPORTING MEMBER BANKS IN LEADING CITIES CONDITION STATISTICS OF All MEMBER BANKS Eleventh Federal Reserve District (In million, of dollar,) Eleventh Federal Reserve District (In thousand. of dollcu) March 30, March 31, 1955 1954 Item Item April 20, 1955 April 21, 1954 March 23. 1955 ASSETS Commercial, Industrial, and agricultural loans•••• 51,414,217 $1,306,010 $1,421,280 loans to brokers and dealers In securities •••••• 15,910 12,928 13,588 Other loans for purchasing or carrying .ecurities. 110,821 76,181 103,981 Real estate loans •••••••••••••••••••••••••• 178,282 136,869 174,338 loans to bonks .••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 6,855 7,709 10,155 All other loans •••••• ••••••• •• •••••.••••••• 473,099 398,227 455,571 Gronloo" ••.•.......•.•.......•.......• len reserves and unallocated cherg.oafh. . 2,199.184 23,022 1,937,924 17,215 2,178.913 22,948 Net loons •••••••••• •••.• • •••••••• •••••• 2,176,162 1,920,709 2,155.965 U. S. Treasury bills ••••••••••••••• . ••• • ••••• 83,494 78,127 272,987 877,791 256,426 116,078 172,845 148,037 771,668 206,879 62,253 47.150 273,655 867.499 255,214 U. S. Treasury certificates of Indebtedness • ••••• U. S. Treasury notes •••••••• • •••.• • • ••• • •••• U. S. Government bonds {inc. gtd. obligations) ••• Other securities •••••••••••••••••••••••••••• Totollnvestments •••• •• •• ••• • ••••••••• ••• CaU\ items in procen of collection ••• •••••••••• Balance, with banks in the United Slates •••• • • • Balance, with banks in foreig n countries •••••••• Currency and coin •••• ••••••••••• • ••• •••••• Reserves with Federal Reserve Bank ••••••••••• Other a"els • •••• • •••••••••• • • ••• • •• . ••••• 1,568,825 388,086 445,781 1,809 46,583 623,259 123,438 1,415,50 7 301,435 444,168 1,120 44,849 600.476 95.926 1,505,771 363,388 452,280 1,635 44.828 589.013 124,975 TOTAL ASSETS •••••••••••••••••••••••• UABIUTIES AND CAPITAL Demand deposits Indl . . lduals. partnerships. ond corporations •••• United States Government ................ . Stales and poJit1cal subdi ....lsions •••••••••••• Bonks In the United Stales ••••••••••••••••• Banks In foreign countries. ••••••• • ••••• • •• Certifled and officers' checks. etc. ••••••••••• 5,373,943 4,824,190 5.237,855 2,833,406 97,900 165,430 947,241 18,320 66,274 2,564,424 82,988 192,705 853,B47 9,723 45,033 2,787,889 84,525 191,919 875,19 1 16,100 64,583 Total demand deposits ........ . .. ...... . 4,128,571 3.748,720 4,020,207 nme deposits Indi .... lduals. portnerships, and corporations •••• United Slates Go .... ernment ............. . .. . Postal sa ....ings •••••••••• •• •••.•• • .•••••.• Stales and political subdl ....islons ..••.•.••••• Bonks in the U. S. and foreign countries ••••.• 658.550 13,662 452 128,233 1,210 550,464 9,813 450 132,032 1,883 653,792 13,361 452 109,657 602 Total time deposils ••••••••••••••••••••• 802,107 694,642 777,864 Total deposits ••••••••••••••••••••••• Bills payable, rediscounh, etc. •••••••••••.•••• All other liabilities ••••••••••••••••••••••••• Total capitol occ:ounh ••• ••• •••••••••••••••• 4,930,67 8 20,000 55,454 367,811 4,443,362 3,000 45,150 332,678 4,798,071 17,050 60,101 362,633 TOTAL LIABILITIES AND CAPITAL. •••••••• 5,373,943 4,824,190 5,237,855 tion firms, retail and wholesale trade eSLablishments, and sales finance companies were heavy borrowers during the 4-week period, while commodity dealers, public utilities, and manufacturers of metal and metal products moderately reduced their indebtedness, During the 4-week period, the weekly reporLing banks reversed the trend prevalent since the beginning of the year and added $61,842,000 to their holdin gs of United States Government securi ti es, Acquisitions of short·term bills and certificates totaled $52,218,000, and bond portfolios increased $10,292,000, Feb. 23, 1955 ASSETS loons and discount •••• , •••• , •••• , •••• , ••• , •• ,. United States Government obligations, , •••• •••• ,. Other sectlrities •• " ••.••••••• , • •••••••••• ••• , , Reserves with Federal Res.r ....e Bank ••••• , ••••••• • Cosh In voulte ••••••••••.•• , .••• , ••• • •• ••••••• Bala nces with bonks in the United S,ates •••••• •••• Balances with bonks in foreign countries••••••••••• C(lsh Items in procell of colleclian., ••• , •••••• •• • • Other auetsll,., •••• " •••••••••• , •• , •• , •••• •• $3,495 2,421 550 951 135 1,031 2 333 176 $3,119 2,306 456 982 146 1,010 1 335 151 $3,513 2,505 547 960 127 1,076 2 422 185 TOTAL ASSETSe •• • , •••••••• • ••••• , ••••• •••• 9.094 8.506 9,337 LIABILITIES AND CAPITAL Demond deposits of bonks . , ...... , ...... .... .. OUler demand deposits, ••••••••• , •• , •• •••• , ••• TIme deposits., ••• , ••• , • •• , • • • ••••••••• •• •• ', 1,045 6,134 1,2 10 991 5,817 1,061 1,003 6,420 1,177 Total deposits •••••••••••••• , • • •••••• ••••• •• Borrowingse , •..• • •••••• , •••• , •••• , •••••••••• Other liabllitlese ••• • ••• • , •••• ,., •• , ••••••••••• Tolal capitol accounts-, ••••• • ••••• , •••••• ••••• 8,389 6 67 632 7,869 60 577 0 8,600 23 84 630 TOTAL LIABIlITIES AND CAPITALe •••••••• •••• , 9.094 8,506 9,337 e-Estimated. weighted heavily by an $18,576,000 expansion in funds of states and political subdivisions. Member bank reserve balances at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas rose $25,172,000 during the 4 weeks ended April 20. Principal factors con tribu ting to the expansion included Treasury operations, which added $143,482,000, and a $14,,426,000 increase in local Federal Reserve credit. Partially offsetting these expansive factors were currency transactions that absorbed $2,053,000 and a $130,528,000 flow of funds from the District. Other deposits and other Federal Reserve accounts, together, subtracted $155,000 from reserve balances. The increase during the 4-week period brought the total rise since the first of the year to $14,692,000, as compared with a $23,977,000 decline in the comparable 1954 period, Debits to demand deposit accounts at banks in 24 District cities totaled $7,194,331,000 in March, up 18 percent from February and 13 percent above the year-earlier amount. Reflccting the larger number of business days in the month, debits in each reporting center were higher than in February. CHANGES IN FACTORS AFFECTING MEMBER BANK RESERVE BALANCES Eleventh Federal Reserve District (In thousands of dollars) CHANGE' ~ , The ability of the banks to increase both loans and holdings of Government securities arose primarily from a $132,607,000 expansion in deposits, which contrasts with a rise of only 512,100,000 in the comparable 1954 period. The $108,364,. 000 gain in demand deposits resulted mainly from substantial increases in funds of domestic banks, indiv;duals, and businesses and of the United States Government that were offset partially by a contraction in state and local government deposits, The $24,243,000 rise in time deposits was 4 weeks ended April 20, 1955 RESERVE BALANCES April 20. 1955 ... " .. , .... ,... March 23, 1955 ........ ,...... $1,021.203 $ 996,031 1 Sign of change indicates effect on reser ....e balances. +$ 14,426 130.528 + 143,482 2,053 338 + 183 -$ 19,732 - 205,064 + 195,244 + 41,634 976 + 3,586 +$ 25,172 FACTORS Federa l Reserv. credit-local. , ••• , ••••• , ••••• , • lnterdistrict commercia l and financial transactions •••• Trl'!osury operations •• " .•• , •••••..••• " •• ,., .• Currency transactions. , • , •• , ••••••••••.•••. , ••• Other deposits at Fed.ral Res.r ....e Bonk . , •• , •••.• Other Federal Reserve accounts, •••••• , •••• , •••• D.c. 29, 1954April 20, 1955 +$ 14,692 MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 6B BANK DEBITS, END·Of·MONTH DEPOSITS AND ANNUAL RATE Of TURNOVER Of DEPOSITS CONDITION OF THE fEDERAL RESERVE BANK Of DALLAS (In thousands of dollars) (Amounts in thousands of dollars) AprillS, DEBITSl Item DEPOSITS' Percentage change from Area ARIZONA Tucson •• •••••••••••• LOUISIANA Monroe ••••••••••••• March 1955 Morch Flllb. 1954 1955 $ 136,054 23 15 56,641 252,442 10 16 23 19 Roswell . ........••.• TEXAS 29,664 8 66,146 158,127 137,233 125,163 168,168 14,498 2,058,668 249,389 631,032 81,546 2,015,106 20,388 138,907 53,823 46,484 478,508 17,719 74,325 88,092 96,208 14 18 14 -2 11 3 14 18 21 2 8 -1 41 18 16 17 -1 24 5 11 12 15 10 13 10 11 17 16 23 12 22 10 4 9 20 20 7 17 14 14 13 18 March 31, 1955 15 Abilene •.•••••• .. •• • Annual role of turnover Shre veport ••••• .• .• • March Morch feb . 1955 195.4- 1955 93,860 17.3 15.5 41,895 15.8 15.8 14.5 15.7 12.6 13.1 29,235 12.0 11.5 10.2 13.6 11.6 14.8 13.1 $ NEW MEXICO Amorillo •••••••••• •• Austin .••••.. • .•.•. • Beaumont •••• •••• •• • Corpus Christi •....• •• Corsicana • ••• ••••••• Dallas ............. . EI Paso •• • •• •••••••• Fori Worth .•...•...• Golveston .......•... Houston ......... ... . Loredo .. ........... Lubbock ..•... .. . ... Port Arthur ... . . ..... San Angelo ...•...... San Antonio •.• ...... Texarkana ' .•.. . .... . Tyler .... . .•.•...... Waco ............. . Wichita Falls ..... . ... Total-24 cities . ....... $7,194,331 833,631 6,080 .4,387 9.46/497 April 15, 1954 March 15, $ 825,669 $779,026 700 5,013 927,519 933,232 981,413 717,983 1955 o 956,964 1,039,114 376 967,903 968,279 1,005,622 711,231 700,767 15.1 181,316 Total gold certificate reserves . .... . . ... . .. . . Discounts for member banks . . .......... . .. . Other discounts and advances .............. . U. S. Govemment securities . .. . ............ . TOla l earning assets • .. ........... .... ..... Member bonk reserve deposits •. ............ Federal Reserve notes in actual circulation ... . . 1955 59,175 13.2 109,70.4115,013 17.3 16.3 14.6 15.6 21,784 956,512 14.4 14.8 18.6 7 .9 25.7 127,117 23.0 350,765 71,096 21.5 13.9 20.6 100,670 106,941 1,144,927 18,761 7.1 21.7 19..417.4 12.7 16.8 20.9 13.2 11.6 16.6 16.0 12.1 16.9 12.4 13.9 13.9 15.0 14.5 10.9 10 .1 14.2 11..4 15.7 15.2 11.0 12.8 15.6 lD.6 97,823 46,353 336,220 17,207 57,018 68,590 103,.400 v 19.8 19 .• 16.7 Earning assets of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas rose $23,732,000 between March 15 and April 15, reflecting in· creases of $18,978,000 in United States Government securities and $5,380,000 in member bank borrowings and a $626,000 decline in other discounts and advances. Other changes in the bank's condition included increases of $54,605,000 in gold certificate reserves and $57,701,000 in member bank reserve deposits and a decrease of $6,752,000 in Federal Reserve notes in aClual circulation. 13.3 13.3 9.6 13.0 40,8.42 $4,296,224 17.8 7.9 24.2 21.0 19.4 12.7 13,1 16.7 the seventh consecutive month to reach a new peak of $1,202,162,000, a level 16.6 percent above the year·earlier average. 16.0 12.0 1 Debits to demand deposit accounts of individua ls, partnerships, and corporations and of slates and political subdivisions. , Demand deposit accounts of Individuals, partnerships, and corporations and of states and political subdivisions. , These figures include only one bonk in Texorkana, Texas. Totol debits for all banks in Texarkana, Texas.Arkonsas, including two banks located in the Eighth District, amounted to $36,258,000 for the month of March 1955. Increases over March 1954 were reported in all but three cities. The annual rate of deposit turnover advanced to 19.8 in March, compared with 16.7 in February and 19.1 in March 1954. Gross demand deposits of District member banks averaged $7,237,908,000 in March, down seasonally 1.2 percent from February but 6.1 percent greater than in March 1954, The month·to·month decline stemmed primarily from decreases at country banks. Time deposits of member banks increased for NEW PAR BANKS The Beaumont State Bank, Beaumont, Texas, an insured, nonmember bank located in the territory served by the Houston Branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, was added to the Par List on its opening date, April 18, 1955. The officers are: William Blieden, President (inactive); Samuel B. Landrum, V ice President (inactive); Jack H, Henderson, Executive Vice President; and W. E. Edgar, Vice President and Cashier. The Vidor State Bank, Vidor, Texas , an insured, nonmember bank located in the territory served by the Houston Branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, was added to the Par List on its opening date, April 1, ]955. The officers are: C. B. Keeland, Jr., President, and W. E. Keeland, Vice President and Cashier. Refinery crude runs in both the District and the Nation were cut back markedly during the first part of April, following moderate reduc· tions in the preceding month. Dis· trict refinery runs averaged 2,166,000 barrels per day, which ' ~ is 53,000 barrels below the March average although 126,000 ~ barrels higher than in April last year. Meanwhile, refinery runs in the Nation during the first part of April, at 7,071,000 barrels per day, were 318,000 barrels lower than in March but 260,000 barrels higher than in the same month a year earlier. A substantial number of major refiners announced appreciable cutbacks in their refinery runs for April and May. ' The decline in refinery crude runs from Lhe record levels prevailing in February has been occasioned by the seasonal decrease in the demand for heating oils and the current high level of gasoline stocks. While refinery yields of gasoline were reduced during the winter months, the large refinery runs needed to meet heating oil demand tended to build up an already high volume of gasoline stocks. On . April 1, such stocks totaled a record 185,300,000 barrels, or more than 20,000,000 barrels above the level genera11y considered desirable at this time of year. Warming spring temperatures, which have weakened heat· in g oil demand, have stimulated appreciably the demand for gasoline. In the 5 weeks ended April 15, such demand at pri. mary levels was about 6 percent higher than in the same period last year. The high level of gasoline demand tends to minimize the possible unfavorable consequences of a heavy stock position in this product. Despite the sizable reduction in refinery crude runs, crude oil production in April was down only slightly from the March volume. In the District, daily average crude oil pro· 69 MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW CRUDE OIL: DAILY AVERAGE PRODUCTION (In thousands of barr.h) Chonge from March 1955 1 March February 1954 2 1955 1 ELEVENTH DISTRICT. •••••••• 3,305.7 Texal ........... . . ... .. 2,969.8 Gulf Coast ............ 637.2 3,809.1 1,172.7 1,059.4 244.5 84.0 3,259.4 2,932.1 631.0 1,158.4 236.9 86.0 819.8 217.7 109.6 3,499.1 6,758.5 Area West Texas ........... East Texas (pro~er) ..... Panhandla . . 237.' 87.5 835.0 223.9 Of • • • • • • • • • Rest of State ..•..... ... Southeasfem New Muieo .. Northern louisiana ...... .. 112.0 OUTSIDE ELEVENTH DISTRICT. 3,534.1 6,839.8 UNITED STATES ••••.......• 2)73.5 601.8 783.8 200.1 115.5 3,417.4 6,506.5 March 1954 -503.4 196.3 35.4 113.3 -7.1 3.5 51.2 23.8 -3.5 116.7 333.3 February 1955 46.3 37.7 6.2 14.3 .5 1.5 15.2 6.2 2.4 35.0 81.3 SOURCESl 1 Estimated from American Petroleum Institute weekly reports. 2: United States Bureau of Mines. duction during the first half of the month amounted to 3,286,000 barrels, or only 19,000 barrels less than iu March and 118,000 barrels higher than iu April last year. In the Nation, crude production averaged 6,819,000 barrels per day, which is down 21,000 barrels from the previous month but 204,000 barrels above a year earlier. May crude production in the District, however, probably will show a substantial decline, The Texas Railroad Commission reduced daily allowables for this mouth to 3,072,000 barrels, representing a reduction of 214,000 barrels from the mid·Aprillevel and the lowest allowable for any month duro ing the current year. Imports declined considerably iu recent weeks, in contrast with the small decrease in domestic crude production. During the 5 weeks ended April 15, total imports averaged 1,214,000 barrels per day, or 132,000 barrels less than in the previous 5 weeks although 235,000 barrels higher than in the same period a year ago, However, the recent decline was entirely in residual fuel oil imports, which usually decrease at this time of year; crude imports continued in approximately the same volume, The cutback in refinery crude runs, coupled with the continued high level of domestic crude production, has resulted in an increase in crude oil stocks in the Nation. Crude stocks on April 9 totaled 269,100,000 barrels, representing a gain of 9,100,000 barrels in 6 weeks. At this level, crude stocks were about the same as a year earlier and were only a little higher than what the industry generally considers desirable. Marketed production of natural gas in the four producing states lying wholly or partly within the District rose to a record high in the fourth quarter of 1954. Totaling 1,849 billion cubic feet, marketed production was 14 percent higher than in the third quarter and almost 5 percent higher than in the same quarter of 1953. Seasonally heavier heating needs of existing resideutial and commercial users, together with con tinued expa nsion in the number of consumers, largely acco unted for the rise in production in the last quarter of 1954, For the year, marketed production in the District states amounted to 6,910 billion cubic feet, or 3 percent higher than in 1953. District production in 1954 comprised approxi. mately 80 percent of the national total, or about the same as a year earlier. Nonagricultural employment in the District states during March increased 27,300 over February to reach a total of 3,815,100, or 70,700 more than in March 1954. Gains occurred in all industries, but the largest increases were accounted for hy seasonal influences in retail trade, construclion, and such manufacturing lines as apparel, machinery, and construction materials, Manufacturing employment rose 4,000 to a March total of 700,600, placing such employment above the year· earlier level for the first time since 1953. Transportation equipment manufacturing continues to supply a large number of jobs, although a slight decliue is apparent as fluctuations in mili. tary needs vary production schedules in aircraft manufacturing. However, aircraft workers laid off in Texas are being sought actively by manufacturers in other parts of the country, The value of construction contracts awarded in the District during March totaled $160,055,000, or 23 percent above February and 4,2 percent above a year ago. The most important factor in the March total was nonresidential construction awards, which were 59 percent more than in February and 45 percent over March 1954. Residential building awards, NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT five Soulhweslern States1. Perce nt change March 1955 from Number of persons February March Fe b. Type of employment March 19S5e March NA TURAl GAS: MARKETED PRODUCTION 1954r 1955 1954 1955 Four Southwestern States Tolal nonagricultural wage and salary workers .. 3,815,100 3,744.400 696,200 3,048,200 232,200 254,300 3,787,800 696,600 3,091,200 233,800 257,200 1.9 .6 2.2 .9 5.1 J .6 .8 394,100 954,100 152,800 434,400 626,300 383,900 967,100 158,300 .439,500 651,400 -1.8 2.1 4 .0 1.2 4.4 700,600 Nonmonufocturing • ••• .•• • 3,114,500 234,200 Mining ••••...•••••••• • 267,200 Construction . ••...... .. Manufacturing .•........ . (In millions of cubic feet) Fourth Fourth Third quarter quarter quarter Area 1954 1953 1954 1954p 1953 louisiana ..•.... . New Mexico •.... 365,3 00 285,900 1,293,64.4399,086 599,955 4,383,158 6,675,843 Transportation and public utilities ••••.•••••••. • Finance . •• •.•.••.••••• 387,100 973,800 158,900 Service .•............ . 439,700 Governmen t ••••••• •••• 653,600 Trade .... . .... ..... . . t 133,500 321,200 117.300 1.45,800 Oklahoma •••.• . • Texol ........ . . 1.20.4.000 161,.400 1,167 •.400 113,000 152,600 1,069,600 1,246,700 478,900 623,200 4,561,000 Total. .....•.. 1.848,600 1.767.300 1,621,100 6,909,800 p_Preliminary. SOURCEI United Stotes Bureau of Mines. 1 Arixona, Louiliana, Hew Mexico, Oklohoma, and Texal. e-Estimated. r-Revised. SOURCES: Stat. employme nt agencies. Federal Reserve Bonk of Dallas. .2 3.9 .8 .7 .4 .05 .3 MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 70 VALUE OF CONSTRUCTION CONTRACTS AWARDED DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION AND STOCKS OF COTTON (In thousand. of dollars) (Bal •• ) March 1955p Area and type August-February January-March March February 1954 1955 1955p 1954 ElEVENTH DiSTRICT .... $ 160,055 $ 113.089 $ 130.636 $ 417.563 $ 300.462 Residential......... 73.276 53,260 203,958 150,207 79.586 All other. . . . . . . . • . . 86,779 59,829 51,050 213,605 150,255 UNITED STAlESt •..•.• 2,134,819 1,527,517 1,581,143 5,220,412 3,900,824 Residential. • • . . .• . . 989,730 667,737 744,102 2,.424,187 1,638,992 All other ........ • .. ',145,089 859,780 837,041 2,796,225 2,261,832 1 37 states east of the Rocky Mountains. p-Prelimirtary. SOURCE: F. W. Dodge Corporation. willie 38 percent above March last year, decreased 8 percent from the preceding month. During the first quarter of 1955, the value of construction contracts awarded in the District was up 39 percent from the same period of 1954. Residential awards rose 36 percent, and all other awards gained 42 percent. In the Nation, total awards increased 34 percent over last year; residential awards, 48 percent; and all other awards, 24 percent. The continuing rise in construction activity is illustrated further in a comparison of the number of dwelling units pro· vided by contract awards. New single.family units provided in Texas during the first quarter of 1955 totaled 13,370, compared with 10,128 during the first 3 months of 1954. Construction of multifamily units is down sharply, with the 1955 first.quarter total of 1,121 being 25 percent lower than the total for the comparable period in 1954. With the increase in construction activity, the demand for cement has turned sharply upward. Texas manufacturers in. BUILDING PERMITS February 1955 1 Area February 1954 January 1955 1 This season Lost season CONSUMPTiON Total Texos mJlls .......... 11,598 78,815 84,776 10,632 10,967 U. S. mills ........... 720,815 685,546 711,286 5,126,907 5,107,216 Daily a¥erage Texas mills ..•......• 531 577 541 590 548 U.S. mills ••••••••••• 34,544 34,763 36,6045 34,852 35,564 STOCKS,U. S.-End of period Con$uming establisnmentl. 1,877,945 1, 821,878 1,801 ,753 Public storoge and tomprenes .•... •. ... 12,741,826 11,528,162 13,471,230 I Four weeks ended February 26. • Four weeks ended January 29. SOURCEl United States Bureau of the Censvs:. creased production during the first quarter in 1955 to 17,939,000 hundredweight, an increase of 30 percent over the first quarter in 1954. The shortage of glass which has confronted the construction industry for several months is likely to con· tinue for at least 60 days, as new orders are being placed 2 or more months in advance of deliveries. One result of this tightness has been a rise in imports of Belgium glass. Mining activity in the District states, as in the Nation, continues at a high level, with copper production in March exceeding any other month since World War II. An increase in the price of copper has failed to alleviate the continuing shortage, and the Federal Government has acted to make 17,500 tons available from its defense stockpile. The shortage of copper generally stems from two influences: (1) labor disputes in mines throughout the world during the fal! and winter months and (2) the sharp rise in demand from auto· mobile and other durable goods manufacturers. Sulfur pro· duction in Texas, which provides approximately 75 percent of the Nation's output, amounted to 1,040,321 long tons during the first quarter of 1955, representing an increase of 37 percent over the comparable period in 1954. 3 months 1955 Percentage Percentage change In valuation fram 3 months change In valuation from March 1955 March Area Valuation 616 $ 2,571,149 1954 1955 Number 53 1,412 1,722,558 35 -21 3,510,531 89 69 4,658,025 19 65 697,908 29 -13 3,135,319 16 61 17,816,515 44 -8 3,587,824 101 5 6,468,382 58 19 252,654 -83 26 15,495,106 44 1 3,318,467 142 76 615,042 15 -11 5,273,980 19 -6 1,451,129 32 10 1,136,782 41 5 18 466 812 909 897 Valuation $ 5,981,178 Total-16 cities . • 11 ,2 11 $71.711,371 29 17 4,922,932 7,409,231 UNITED STATES August 1 to February 28 Thll season Lost season This season Last season 1,630,095 1,125,968 592.258 5,027.742 3,845,288 1,412,061 6,017,057 4,285,796 1,879,379 381,200 366,354 541,074 541,085 255,140 328,207 1,246,980 1,874,063 827,947 1,245,072 1,390,798 2,031,022 941,317 1,3 58,243 20,263 36,136 32,977 50,890 67,007 257,064 68,917 356,759 146,087 1954 15 TeXAS Abilene •. • ...• 176 Amarillo ..••.. 336 Austin ........ 366 Beaumont ..•.. 368 Corpus Christl .• 535 Dallas .......• 2,683 549 EI Pasa ....... 934 Fort Worth .••. Gar¥eslon ..••• 124 Houston .• • .... 1,231 Lubbock ..•. •• 381 Port Arthur .. •• 207 Sen Antonio .•• 2.219 Waco •..•...• 318 Wichita Fall •.•• 168 TEXAS August 1 to February 28 Number LOUISIANA Shreveport ••.• Feb. COTTONSEED AND COTTONSEED PRODUCTS 2,385 322 3,305 857 445 5,600 783 433 36,625,178 7,709,626 1,652,552 16,546,73 3 4.403,174 3,053,376 74 101 20 -17 16 58 98 49 -66 -3 16 87 58 32 45 28,578 $184,611,797 Item conONSEED {tons} Received at mills ... •.. ..... 1,420,4 55 Crushed .................. . 1,141,309 Stocks, end of period .... .... 423,022 32 1,512 6,950 1,490 10.458, 185 2.124.844 8,230,150 50,329,183 9,555,774 15,005,112 604,569 COnONSEED PRODUCTS Production Crude oil (thousand pounds). Cak. and meolltons} ..... . Hulls (tons} .. .... . . . . . ... linters (running boles) ... .• StOCKS, end of period Crude oil (thousand pounds). COK. and mea l (tons) ...... Hulls (tons} ...... .. .... .. linters (running bale s) ..... 262.405 327,216 10,685 44,028 17,409 77,908 SOURCE: United States Bureau of the Census. 98,299 88,486 213,459 ~ ~