Full text of Review (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas) : June 1970
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business • rev.ew june 1970 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS This publication was digitized and made available by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' Historical Library (FedHistory@dal.frb.org) contents The 1970's: Decade for plastics Part 3: Styrenes ......................... 3 The fertilizer industry faces the road back .... ... . . . .......... .... ' 9 District highlights .......... . ............... 14 The 1.970 ~s: Decade for plastics Part 3: Styrenes The plastics industry enters the new decade Cautiously but with optimism. Looking back on the 1960's, plastics producers see a decade of dramatic growth, with plastics gaining widespread acceptance in an ever-expanding range of markets. They also see the 1960's marred by periodic and sometimes chaotic price and profit erosion as they built larger and larger plants in an effort to reduce costs and expand their market positions. The further development and expansion of the industry in the coming decade will depend largely on the future of three families of resins: Polyethylene, vinyls, and styrenes. The prodUction and marketing of the first two were covered in previous Business Review articles. This final ·article centers on conditions in the StYrene market and the outlook for that market. Consumption of styrene plastics tripled in the last decade, matching the rate of growth for the plastics industry as a whole. And with the Three major thermopla tics aCcounted for over two-thirds of llla tics production ill 1969 """ PLASTICS - 100.0 % -.... THERMO SETS THERMOPLASTICS .... 80 .3% 19.7 % ~ POLYETHYLENE VINY LS STY RENES 31.3 % 20 .7% 18 .8 % ""- SOURCE : U.S . Tariff Commi s s ion . OTHER 9.5 °~ steady increase in new applications for this important group of plastics, sales are expected to continue their rapid growth over the next decade, pushing annual consumption to 6.2 billion pounds by 1980. That will be almost twice the volume projected for. 1970. This growth will directly influence the economy of the Southwest. Styrene production, based (like the production of all plastics) on hydrocarbon processing, depends heavily 011 the petroleum and natural gas facilities of Texas and Louisiana for most of its raw materials. Furthermore, 11 of the nation's 14 plants producing styrene monomer, the major ingredient in styrene plastics, are located in these two states. Together, these 11 southwestern plants account for almost four-fiftl1s of the styrene monomer production. The styrene industry The styrene family includes several important members, each willi unique properties and applications and all with high potentials for further market growth. Because of their differences, each is considered a separate market within the plastics industry. The oldest member is polystyrene, a tough , inexpensive plastic that has long been a favorite of molders making such items as thin-wall containers, air-conditioners, radio and television cabinets, small housewares, and toys. Expanded by gas, it has about half the density of cork. In this form, known commercially as "styrofoam," the plastic is used as an insulating material, in construction and in the manufacture of such items as drinking cups, buckets, and iceboxes. business review/june 1970 3 Newer styrene plastics are also rapidly gaining market acceptance. Styrene can be made even tougher and more rigid than polystyrene when combined with acrylonitrile to make styrene-acrylonitrile (called SAN) or when combined with acrylonitrile and butadiene to form acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS). In these combinations, styrene is suitable for uses requiring very high impact strength, such as in automotive instrument panels and even front grilles, in small appliances, furniture, drainpipes, telephone casings, luggage, boats, and football helmets. Styrene is also combined with butadiene to form styrene-butadiene copolymers, which are elastic. The largest selling elastomers, in fact, are copolymers of 24 percent styrene and 76 percent butadiene. This combination accounted for about half of all synthetic rubbers produced last year. Styrene-butadiene copolymers that are at least half styrene are classified as plasSales of styrene-type plastics expected to almost double by 1980 BILLIONS OF POUN OS r- D :::::::::::::: ACTUAL ~ 6 PROJECTED :~: : : : : : ~:j:tti: ::::::=:=:=::: 3 .............. ............... :.:.:.:.:.:.:. .............. .:.:.:.:.:.:.:. - ::=:=:=:=:=:::: .............. ::::::::::::::: .:.:.:.:.:.:.:. ............... .............. :.:.:.:.:.:.:.: .:.:.:.:.:.:.:. ............... ::::::::::::::: ............... :.:.:.:.:.:.:.: ............... .:.:.:.:.:.:.:. o 1960 1965 1970 SOURCES : Standard & Poor 's . U. S. Tariff Comm is s ion . 4 1975 1980 tics and used in treating and coating textiles and paper. Polystyrene Polystyrene is by far the largest selling styrene resin. Production of this plastic reached 2.1 billion pounds last year. At that level, it accounted for two-thirds of all styrene polymer production. To make polystyrene, ethylene and benzene (products derived primarily from petroleum but also from natural gas and coal tar) are first combined to form styrene monomer. ThiS liquid monomer is then polymerized into a fairly brittle solid. To increase the impact strength of the polymer, polybutadiene is often added. The gain in strength is made at the eXpense of other properties, however. Within broad limits, properties of polystyrene can be balanced to fit the requirements of particular end uses. Polystyrene is used almost straight, for example, in food containers and in other products where a fairly clear plastic is needed but only moderate impact strength is required. In the production of polystyrene for use in appliances and in other applicatio~S where toughness is needed but transparency IS not, the resin is modified by the addition of synthetic rubber. About half the polystyrene produced last year was modified by adding poly butadiene, one of the synthetic rubbers. Unlike most plastics markets _ where economies of scale have brought drastic swings in rates of capacity utilization as new plants were built - the supply-demand balance for polystyrene has been fairly stable in recent years . The average polystyrene plant has an annual capacity of only 85 million pounds, or about 3 percent of the industry's total capacity. Ev eJl when U.S. Steel enters the polystyrene market later this year with one of the larger plants.one with an annual capacity of 200 miJiJ oJ1 pounds-it will increase industry capacity only about 7.5 percent. Packaging took more than a third of the polystyrene sold in 1969 ... MISCELLANEOUS AND EXPORTS LIGHTING FIXTURES CONSTR UCTION HOME FURN ISHINGS ... while ales of ABS and SAN went to a variety of applications ... 12 % 5 Vo 5% 6% 29 % MISCELLANEOUS AND EXPORTS TOyS AND NOVELTIES 10 % 4% 7% LUGGAGE SHOE HEELS HOU SEWARES 10% 8% TOYS AND NOVELTIES APPLI ANCES 15% 10% TELEPHONES AND BUSIN ESS MACH IN ES 10 % DRAIN , WASTE , AND VENT PIPES 15% APPLIANCES 17 % AUTOMOTIVES PACKAG ING 37 % SOURCE : Chemic a l a nd Engin ee ring News . The near-term outlook for polystyrene is Very favorable. Total capacity will average about 2.7 billion pounds this year. With production expected to reach 2.4 billion pounds, the capacity utilization rate will average 89 percent. And with capacity scheduled to increase With dema'nd , producers expect to operate at about 90 percent of capacity through at least 19 72 . Reflecting the firm market conditions, POlystyrene prices have moved upward in the first half of this year. 411S and SAN Both ABS and SAN are still youngsters in the Styrene family . Only in the last ten years has either resin been marketed extensively. Nevertheless, they accounted for almost a fifth of the styrene-type plastics produced last year, ~nd their importance in the family is increasIng rapidly, Where polystyrene production exPanded about 12 percent last year, production of ABS and SAN increased 20 percent. SOURCE : Chemical a nd Engineering New s. plants have annual capacities in excess of 100 million pounds, or more than 12 percent of total industry capacity. Production of ABS and SAN totaled 559 million pounds last year, or about 83 percent of the 675 million pounds of capacity available. With capacity now totaling 800 million pounds - 18.5 percent larger t11 ah last year - demand for ABS and SAN will have to in. . . and rno t tYl'ene-butadiene wa used in treating paper and textile MISCELLANEOUS AND EXPORTS 6% EMULSION PAINT 9% TEXTILE AND PAPER TREATING 85 % t' As with most of the newer plastics, produc- lloU of ABS and SAN has not reached a volume arge enough to prevent fairly broad swings in the balance between supply and demand when new plants go on stream, The newest ABS SOURCE : Ch emica l and En gi neeri ng N ew s. business review/june 1970 crease as fast this year as last for any noticeable improvement to be made in capacity utilization. The slump in the auto industry, which provides ABS and SAN producers their largest market, may keep sales of these plastics from increasing as fast as in 1969. If so, the rate of capacity utilization may be only about 80 percent this year. The outlook remains optimistic for the long run, however. Use of ABS in automobiles, for example, is expected to increase from 90 million pounds in 1969 to 270 million pounds in 1975. General Motors, Ford, and American Motors have their own injection-molding facilities for making plastic auto parts, and Chrysler has acquired several plastic-processing firms. Styrene-butadiene After years of relatively slow growth, the styrene-butadiene copolymer market has been expanding rapidly for several years. Production has increased 40 percent in the past two years, for example, or slightly more than in the previous seven years. Last year was particularly good, with production increasing 25 percent to a total of 405 million pounds. This increase allowed producers to use 92 percent of their 440 million pounds of capacity. And producers expect further rapid growth. Forecasts show production with an average annual growth rate of 15 percent for 1970-75. In contrast to most other styrenes, which have a variety of uses, styrene-butadiene copolymer is a highly specialized plastic with only a few end uses. About 85 percent of its production last year was used in treating textiles and paper, and most of the rest was used in emulsion paints. Styrene producers Polystyrene, like other large-volume thermoplastics, is produced primarily by large, diversified chemical and petroleum companies, many of which are also significant producers 6 of other plastics. Five of the six leading polystyrene producers - Amoco, Dow, Monsanto, Sinclair-Koppers, and Union Carbide - also manufacture polyethylene. But because efficiency does not require that polystyrene plants be as large as polyethylene plants, many small, specialized producers are able to compete successfully in the polystyrene industry. Southern Petrochemicals, for example, successfully entered the polystyrene market last year with a plant near Houston having an annual capacity of 40 million pounds, or less than 2 percent of the year's total production. Probably the greatest problem facing small producers - and the greatest obstacle to entry into the polystyrene industry - is the backward vertical integration of large producers into styrene monomer. Eight of the nine leading polystyrene producers have captive sources of styrene monomer, while none of tlle other six producers have their own supply. Wicll monomer accounting for about 70 percent of the cost of producing polystyrene, a company can realize significant cost savings by producing its own, provided it can build a monomer plant of efficient size and operate it close to full capacity. A company producing large amounts of polystyrene can operate a monomer plant to support its polystyrene production, but because a small producer cannot, it has to buY monomer on the open market. Several of the leading polystyrene producers have moved into the production of ABS and SAN. Of the eight companies making theSe resins, five also produce polystyrene. And of these five, four are among the five largest polystyrene producers. Participation in the polystyrene industry is no prerequisite for success in other styrene plastics, however. The twO companies leading in ABS and SAN capacitYi Uniroyal and the ~arbon Chemical Divisi~n °t Borg-Warner (whIch together account fOl hal the industry's capacity) - do not produce polystyrene. Large chemical and petroleum companies dominate the polystyrene industry, and most make their own styrene monomer Producer Amoco Chemicals (Standard Oil of Indiana) .. . .... . .... .. ... . ... . ANNUAL CAPACITY, beginning of 1970 (Millions of pounds) Plant location Polystyrene Torrance, California . . Joliet, Illinois ......... . ..... • .. Willow Springs, Illinois .......... . Leominster, Massachusetts . . ... . Medina, Ohio .. . . . .. . .. . .. . 170 (combined total) Styrene monomer Texas City, Texas .. . .. . . . ... . .. . 800 BASF . . . .. .. .. . .. . . . . ... . .. . . . . .. .. . Jamesburg, New Jersey . ........ . 80 Cosden Oil & Chemical .. . . . •... . •... • •. Carville, Louisiana Big Spring, Texas . ............. . 145 Dart Industries .... . ....•.. . . . ....• . . . Dow Chemical . .. . .... ...... . . . .. ... . Santa Ana, California .. . . ...•. . .. Joliet, Illinois . ............. . •.. Holyoke, Massachusetts .. . . • •. . . Ludlow, Massachusetts . ... 140 (combined total) Torrance, California Allyn's Point, Connecticut . Midland, Michigan ....... . Hanging Rock, Ohio .. . . .. . 700 (combined total) Freeport, Texas Faster Grant ' 250 100 350 .. 550 Peru, Illinois .. . . ... . ...... . . . . Leominster, Massachusetts .... . . 190 (combined total) Baton Rouge, Louisiana .... .. . . . . 240 Hammond Plastics Oxford, Massachusetts . . . .. .. .. . 25 Howard Industries . . . .. • . . .. . ... . .. . . . Hicksville, New York .....• . . .. . . 15 Monsanto . ... .. . ... .. . . .. . . . ... . . .. . Long Beach, California ....... . . . . Springfield, Massachusetts . . . . . . . Addyston, Ohio ...... . . . . 375 (combined total) Texas City, Texas .. . .... . Richardson Co. . .. .. .. .. ... . .. . . . • . .. Shell Chemical . .... ... .... . . . . .. . : . . . 800 West Haven, Connecticut . Torrance, California 50 . . . . .. . . . .. . Wallingford, Connecticut ... . ... . . Marietta, Oh~ ... . .. . ...... . .. . Sinclair.Koppers 240 80 (combined total) Kobuta, Pennsylvania . .. . ... . . . . Houston, Texas ......... . .... . . 300 SOlar Chemical ., . ... .. . . . . . . . • .. .. .• . Leominster, Massachusetts . .. . . . 60 SOUthern Petrochemicals ... . ... .. . .' . . . Houston, Texas ..... . .... ..... . 40 \Jnion Carbide Bound Brook, New Jersey .... . .. . Marietta, Ohio . ..... . ... . ..... . 430 llO 170 (combined total) Seadrift, Texas ...... . •. . ....... ALL PRODUCERS 300 2,540 4,170 '---------------------------------------------------------------------------------One.half of 500.mi li ion.pound monomer plant owned jointly by Cosden and Borg·Warner. 1 SOURCE: Chemical and Engineering News. business review / julie 1970 7 Several polystyrene producers also turn out ABS and SAN Producer and plant location Dart Industries Joliet, Illinois ... . .............. . . Dow Chemica l Midland, Michigan . ... . .. . . .. .•... B. F. Goodrich Loui sville, Kentucky . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Akron, Ohio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Marbon Chemical (Borg·Warner) Ottawa, Illinois . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Washington, West Virginia. . Monsanto Addyston, Ohio . .. . .. . ... . Sinclair·Koppers Kobuta, Pennsylvania . .... Union Carbide Bound Brook, New Jersey ... Uniroyal Baton Rouge, Louisiana ... . .... • ... Scotts Bluff, Louisiana .....•....... Manufacturer of synthetic rubber active in styrene-butadiene copolymer Annual capacity, beginning of 1970 (Millions of pounds) 40 100 30 (combined total) 200 (combined tota l) 190 10 30 200 (combined total) ALL PRODUCERS . ..... . ..... . . . 800 SOURCE: Chemical and Engineering News. Ownership of styrene monomer capacity, though beneficial, is not as crucial to success in ABS and SAN as in polystyrene. This is because styrene monomer is only one of the raw materials going into ABS and SAN production. Styrene makes up approximately 60 percent of the inputs to ABS and 75 percent of the inputs to SAN. Most of the leading tire manufacturers are producers of styrene-butadiene copolymer. In fact, all but four of the 13 companies making styrene-butadiene copolymer are also significant producers of styrene-butadiene rubber. Many of the copolymer plants are adjacent to synthetic rubber facilities and draw on the same sources for raw materials. Vertical integration back into styrene monomer is even less important for a producer's success in styrene-butadiene than in ABS and SAN. Only three styrene-butadiene producers own styrene monomer facilities, and two of them also make polystyrene. In fact, these two 8 Annu a l capacity, beginning of 1970 (Millions of pound~ Producer and pl ant location Am eric a n Min eral Spirits La Mirada, Californi a . . . . .. . . Ch arlotte, North Carolin a . . . . . . . . • . . Borden Illiopolis, Illinoi s . . , ....... . .. .. . . . Geismar, Loui siana . . , . ......... . . Leominster, M assac hu setts ... .. ,.. Dewey & Almy (W. R. Grace) Owensboro, Kentucky .,.. . . . ...... Acton, M assac husetts .,., .. ,. . .... Dow Ch emica l Pittsb urg, California ............ . Allyn 'S Point, Connecticut , . , . . . . . , Dalton, Georgia . . . . . . . ... ~idland, Michiga n ......... . ... .. . ree port, Texas . .. .......•... . ... Firestone Tire & Rubber Pottstown, Penn sylvani a GAF Chatta nooga, Tenn essee ... . . .. . ... General Tire & Rubb er MdOgadOre , Ohio ................. O essa , T exas .. . . ,..... . .. ...... Goodyear Tire & Rubber Akron, Ohio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . M arbon Chemical (Borg.Wa rner) Was hington, West Virgini a . . . . . Sincl air·Koppers Kobuta, Penn sylvania Southwest Polymers Bay port, Texas ..... . ,. Standard Brands Chemical Industries Ch eswold , Delawa re Kensington, Geo rgi a ' : : : : : : : : : : : : :. Uniroya l Baton Rouge, Loui sia na . . . . 18 (combined total) 15 (combined total) 10 (combined total) 160 (combined total) 12 30 20 (combin ed total) 20 5 48 12 50 (combined total) ALL PRODUCERS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 440 ---------------------------------------SOURCE: Ch emical and Engineering News. -- Dow Chemical and Sinclair-Koppers _ are the only polystyrene producers th at have diversified into all types of styrene plastics. The outlook for styrenes, like the outlook fof polyethylene and vinyls, is for another decade of dramatic expansion. The success of producers will depend largely on their orderlY response to this growth. With more and more useS being found for plastics in a seemingly endleSS variety of markets, the 1970's may indeed set the stage for an Age of Synthetics. WILLIAM H. KELLY The fe,·tilize,· i"dust,·y faces tl,e ,·oad back The fertilizer industry, having overestimated its potential market, overbuilt in the 1960's. Although demand for plant nutrients increased rapidly, production capacity increased even faster. Now, with a sizable imbalance between Supply and demand, the industry faces the long - and maybe slow - road back to stability. There remains a considerable potential for greater use of fertilizer in the decade ahead, but the rate of growth is apt to be slower than in the 1960's. Over 16 million tons of plant nutrients were used in this country last year. This amount, which was more than twice the consumption in 1959, represented an average annual increase of almost 8 percent. Estimates by the Tennessee Valley Authority show the country using 25 million tons a year by 1980. This increase, however, represents an average annua l increase of about 5 percent for the 1970's. Sources of excess capacity Excess capacity in both production and distribution facilities - often representing large investments by new companies in the industry - has created a disequilibrium in the supplydemand relationships of all three basic plant nUtrients: nitrogen, phosphate, and potash. Some experts estimate that for fertilizer consumption to have kept up with the increase in capacity, it would have had to expand at a compound annual rate of 15 to 20 percent throughout the 1960's. Since it did not (conSUmption, in fact, increased slightly less than 1 ~ercent in 1969) and cannot be expected to lncrease at anything like that rate in the 1970's, the near-term outlook is for a combination of sUrpluses, incomplete plant utilization, and some shutdown of less competitive facilities. Nitrogen. Although use of nitrogen has increased faster than use of the other two primary nutrients, consumption last year still amounted to less than 7 million tons. The rapid increase in demand for anhydrous ammonia slowed, while demand for aqua ammonia actually declined. Plant capacity continued to expand, however, at a rate expected by the TVA to bring total ammonia capacity close to 20 million tons by 1972. Slower growth rates were also evident in the use of solid ammonium nitrate, urea, and nitrogen solutions. While production of urea and ammonium sulfate continued to rise, supported by foreign sales, production of other major nitrogen fertilizers fell. Output of ammonium nitrate dropped 400,000 tons in 1968, and output of nitrogen solutions slipped 200,000 tons. Capacity for the production of ammonium nitrate, according to TV A, is nevertheless expected to continue its rise, though at a slower rate. Urea capacity is expected to reach 4.7 million tons by 1972, almost twice the capacity in 1967. Phosphate. Consumption of phosphate fertilizer has been leveling off, showing an increase of only 3.5 percent in 1968 and 4.7 percent in 1969. The result has been sizable inventories of phosphate and a marked slowing in the development of reserves. Although exploration continues, here and abroad, the capacity of American mines is not expected to increase until demand begins to catch up. Capacity in the United States is estimated at more than twice the 4.7 million tons of phosphate fertilizer used in 1969. Potash. Consumption of potash in the United States totaled almost 4 million tons last year. business review/julie 1970 9 That was a 2.6-percent gain over 1968. But production still exceeded demand. Potash production in the United States has been declining since it reached a high of 3.3 million tons in 1966. Output has been on the rise in Canada, however, bringing total North American production in 1968 to about 5.6 million tons, or a third of the world's total. Annual U.S. capacity is expected to remain at about 3.4 million tons. But according to TVA estimates, Canadian capacity could go over 8 million tons by 1972, bringing the North American total to more than 11 million tons. junction with refineries, began building units with daily capacities in excess of 1,000 tons, compared with many existing plants of 50 to 150 tons. By the end of the decade, 24 oil and gas companies owned 36 plants accounting for 40 percent of the nation's anhydrous ammonia capacity. Faced with this new competition, companies already in the industry expanded their facilities, adding further to the increase. Domestic use of nitrogen outpaces consumption of other primary nutrients MILLIONS OF SHORT TONS The net effect for the 1969-70 season is an expected rise in domestic supplies of plant nutrients to a record 16.8 million tons. This increase-a gain of 11 percent over the 1968-69 season-will be due primarily to increased inlports and loss of foreign sales. Estimates by the Department of Agriculture show domestic production of nitrogen only about 4 percent higher than last year. But with some increase in imports and a sharp reduction in exports, domestic supplies will probably approach 7.9 million tons, a year-to-year gain of 13 percent. Phosphate production is expected to drop 4 percent. But with imports probably up 18 percent and exports down 45 percent, the domestic supply could total well over 4.5 million tons this year, or 6 percent more than last year. Production of potash will be 9 percent less than last year. This cutback will be more than offset, however, by a 35-percent increase in imports and a 6-percent decline in exports, leaving supplies totaling over 4.4 million tons, or about 12 percent more than in 1968-69. Development of the glut Imbalances in the production of nitrogenous fertilizer ingredients came with technological changes that soon overshadowed market considerations. Petroleum processors, attracted to the fertilizer industry by the low operating costs of running large ammonia plants in con- 10 8 6 4 2 o 1970 e s timat e d . SOURCES : T e nn essee Vall o y Auth o rity . U. S. Departm e nt of Agri c ulture . Meanwhile, the development of new pota sb fields in Canada and phosphate mines in North Carolina and northern Florida further extended the availability of other basic ferti lizers. Several oil companies, seeking diversification int.O other basic nutrients, reached beyond their nItrogenous operations to compete with mining companies. Again, the result was a drive toWard large-scale operations. Much of this increased capacity was built on the expectation that a large market could be developed overseas. But foreign demand remained weak and several countries increased their own production of plant nutrients, entering into competition with American producers both in other countries and in the United States. Few of the new producers considered vertical integration in the beginning, choosing instead to sell their ammonia to smaller companies mixing the nutrients for resale to retailers. Only recently have producers established outlets to increase their marketing efficiency and reduce costs of getting fertilizer to the farm. Government decisions also had an important bearing on sales, both foreign and domestic. Government aid for purchases of fertilizer for other countries was less than expected, and changes in Government falID programs affected the fertilizer industry in several ways. The amount of fertilizer farmers buy is closely related to the prices they expect to receive for their products. Since reductions in the acreage actually planted to crops tend to reduce demand for fertilizer, the amount farmers use is also related to Government land retirement and crop diversion programs. Before the major expansion of the industry in the 1960's, most plants were small and most producers limited their markets to areas 200 or 300 miles from their plants. As a result, managers could keep up with conditions in tlleir markets. But with the construction of large plants and the rapid expansion of market areas, management was removed from direct knowledge of conditions in its market. And because conditions in the fertilizer market vary enormously from area to area, production planning became difficult. The market is highly seasonal, for example, Witll most of the sales coming in the spring, usually in March and April. If these months are wet or spring comes late, sales can be drastically reduced, as some companies report was the case in 1969. More important in the future, however, may be any developments changing overseas markets, as iIIu~trated in part by the large domestic supply expected in the 1969-70 season. This oversupply results primarily from increased imports and a lack of export demand. Construction of fertilizer plants overseas indiCates that other countries plan to import not only less fertilizer but also fewer agricultural Products, and a cutback in foreign demand for A.merican farm products tends to lower domestic demand for fertilizer. tack of market planning Disequilibrium in the industry stems partly from technological developments that allowed large-scale production at costs low enough to attract companies into the industry without adequate market planning. With an abundance of feedstocks flowing as by-products of their ~efining operations and new techniques becomIng available in ammonia production, several large oil and gas companies hurried into conStrUction of ammonia plants in the midsixties. Increased market research As producers try to cope with the growing problem of oversupply, they have undertaken considerable research, individually and as an industry, into both tlle state of tlle industry and the conditions of its markets. To handle one of its most pressing problems - how to gauge the extent of the supply situation - the industry turned to its National Plant Food Institute in 1968 to set up an index providing statistical information on fertilizer. Working from data supplied by participating companies tl1l'0ugh an independent statistical organization that keeps individual company information confidential, the institute began compiling a monthly index of fertilizer production, inventory, and disappearance. Also to help the industry strike a balance in its operations, the institute is planning to com- lJl.£siness review/iu,lIe 1970 11 FERTILIZER CONSUMPTION IN THE SOUTHWEST AND UNITED STATES (As of June 30) In tons' Area Arizona .. . . . . . . . . . Louisiana . ... . .. ..... . , . . Texas .. .. . .. , .. .. Southwest ... . ... United States ... New Mexico Oklahoma 1969 1968 277,681 259,101 503,525 524,520 Percent change 2,285,454 1,889,650 7 -4 -1 5 21 3,722,120 3,304,605 13 38,947,818 38,743,020 95,086 96,530 560,374 534,804 1 Consists of commercial mixtures, primary and secondary nutrients, and micronutrients; excludes liming materials. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Agriculture. pile an industry-wide profit and loss statement and balance sheet. Again, an independent organization, in this case an accounting firm, will gather financial data and compile a monthly statement to the industry. The statement will include information on income and expenses, assets, retail sales, and such other data as credit arrangements. To further assist the industry, the institute is planning similar reports on the transportation of fertilizer. Other efforts at gathering information, while less organized, have also been made in recent years, with individual companies undertaking research on consumption, market practices, and profits. Fundamental data on fertilizer are compiled by the Department of Agriculture and Tennessee Valley Authority. Even with these data, however, companies have some difficulty in developing short-term estimates of consumption, because of such variables as weather, and long-term estimates are complicated by changes in Government policies and shifts in market conditions overseas. By conducting their market research through field interviews, companies are gaining a better grasp of their distribution and marketing problems. Out of this research have come, for example, analyses of the costs of various metllods of moving fertilizer to the farm. Cost 12 studies have been especially prom1smg, since the price a farmer pays for fertilizer must include transportation and distribution costs. Any reduction of tllese costs improves the possibilities for increased earnings, for the farmer and the industry. Companies are also trying to establish a base price for fertilizer that will allow them to recover all the costs of manufacture and distribUtion and still leave a reasonable margin of earnings. Such a pricing system will be necessary in the long run. As long as returns are higher than variable expenses, companies can operate for a while. Eventually, however, they will have to realize returns high enough to cover thefixed costs of plant and equipment as well. Efforts to develop markets Since conditions requisite to a stable indUStry include balance between supply and demand, the stability of the industry in the long run depends on development of markets to match production capabilities. Although the industry neglected the development of market potentials while it concentrated on developing technical capability, it has recently turned attention to programs designed to promote the use of fertilizer. Tllis represents a major change in direction, since much of the industry's problem has been a tendency to take current demand for granted. Because much of the additional capacity was built to meet an overestimated export demand, many producers have recently devoted considerable effort to the development of foreign markets. But perhaps more important in the long run, they have also begun to seek neW approaches to the further development of domeStic markets. Several development programs have been undertaken, with varying degrees of succeSs. Some producers, for example, have started upgrad ing their products by adding secondary nutrients, such as iron, copper, manganese, zinc, and molybdenum, and by turning out high-analysis concentrates with lower application costs. Others have started producing slowrelease fertilizers that become active in stages, thereby affording farmers a wholly new kind of fertilizer with new levels of use. Other companies have turned attention to land that is not ordinarily fertilized, such as parks, roadways, and forests. One important possibility for the additional use of fertilizer is on pastures and forage crops, especially in the South. Because of the high rainfall and long growing season, areas throughout the South respond well to fertilization. With an increased demand for feeder calves and the rapid spread of cattle operations in the South, fertilizer producers are pointing out the gains southern Stockmen can make by fertilizing their pastures. Several demonstrations by the industry's Texas Plant Food Educational Society show that adequate fertilization can be highly profitable in a well-managed livestock operation. According to these demonstrations, a stockman ~an intensify his cow-calf operation by allowIng improved pastures to substitute for additional land, producing more beef per acre with lOwer unit costs than on unimproved pastures. Services to customers One of the most promising areas of develop~ent, however, has been in industry efforts to llllprove service to its customers. Since costs to farmers include not only the fertilizer itself but ~lso such services as delivery, spreading, blendIng, financing, soil testing, and crop manageIllent, any marketing improvements that will redUce these charges can be expected to cut the effective cost of fertilizing. Some of these Charges seriously limit fertilizer sales, and for reasons some fertilizer producers have only recently come to understand. As farms get bigger, for exanlple, technical managerial decisions get harder. At the Very time when some operators are under pres- (Illd sure to improve productivity, their labor problems become more complicated and it becomes harder for them to make the best use of their own time. This - and the high cost of owning the equipment to apply fertilizer with precision - makes dependable service more important to farmers than ever before. Between 35 and 40 percent of the fertilizer used on American farms last year was spread under custom contracts. The proportion is almost certain to increase as application methods become more complex and fertilizers are applied in combination with pesticides. By providing not merely fertilizer alone but also reliable services, fertilizer producers may well be in a better position to market their products. Some producers think they can reduce both the direct costs of fertilizing a field and the indirect costs of operators' time. Fertilizer producers are also exploring the use of credit in financing fertilizer purchases. Because large farms now require large amounts of capital, some fertilizer producers reason that progressive merchandising should include financial advice and prearranged credit - if not from the fertilizer producer, then from some other source. To provide such services, sales offices are taking on the character of farm service centers. Some centers are owned and operated by the fertilizer company. Others are informally franchised by companies that consider independent dealers more efficient in meeting local needs. Either way, the ainl is outlets geared to specialized service to local markets. Implications for the future The outlook for tlle industry in the 1970's is for changes in marketing practices on a par with the production changes of the 1960's. To reestablish equilibrium in the industry, producers will have to encourage more use of fertilizers. And with fewer but larger farms than a decade ago and farm operators becoming business review/june 1970 13 still more sophisticated in the pursuit of profits, fertilizer producers will operate in markets characterized by far more discrimination in purchase decisions. The result is apt to be a continuing effort to gain back the kind of familiarity with local markets producers had before their plant capacities outgrew local demand . Such efforts will reflect needs to integrate vast production capabilities and to decentralize sales forces so they can concentrate more on local conditions. CARL G. ANDERSON, JR. District highlights There were indications on May 1 that winter wheat production in the five states of the Eleventh District will total 192 million bushels this year. That would be 3 percent less than in 1969 and 12 percent less than in 1968. More than 90 percent of the District's wheat production is in Texas and Oklahoma. Compared with last year, production will probably be off about 1 percent in Texas and 8 percent in Oklahoma. These declines result mainly from cutbacks in acreage planted to wheat. Actually, prospects in May were for good yields throughout the District. Farm and ranch activities, in fact, were progressing with the generally favorable weather. Livestock continued in good condition, and prospects for most major crops were considered generally excellent. There were 1,142,000 head of cattle and calves on feed in Texas on May 1. Although that was 14 percent more than on May 1, 1969, it was 8 percent fewer than on April 1, 1970. Placements into Texas feedlots in April totaled 190,000 head, or 17 percent fewer than a year before and 24 percent fewer than a month before. There were 436,000 head of cattle on feed in Arizona on May 1. That was 3 percent more than a year earlier but 4 percent fewer than a 14 month earlier. At 68,000 head, placements into Arizona feedlots were 42 percent more than in March but 14 percent fewer than in April 1969. The index of prices Texas farmers and ranchers receive for their products was 2 percent lower on April 15 than on March 15. The index was 5 percent higher than in April 1969, however. The all-crops price index was unchanged from the previous month but 3 percent higher than in the same month last year. For livestock and livestock products, the indeX was 4 percent lower than a month earlier but 5 percent higher than a year earlier. With reductions in loans more than offsetting increases in security holdings, total bank credit at weekly reporting commercial banks in the Eleventh District declined in the four weeks ended May 13. There was also a substantial decline in total deposits, resulting mainly froJl'l a reduction in demand deposits. Loans adjusted declined $143 million, whi cb was in sharp contrast to a $140 million increase in the previous reporting period. There was also a decline a year earlier, when loanS adjusted dropped $88 million . Contributing t~ the decline this year were reductions of $3 million in commercial and industrial loans, $18 million in loans to financial institutions other than banks, and $20 million in "other" loans. Agricultural and consumer instalment loans expanded, but only negligibly. Total investments increased $144 million, Primarily because of increased holdings of municipals. Banks reduced their holdings of U.S. GOvernment securities by a small amount while increasing their holdings of short-term municiPals by $46 million and long-term municipals by $65 million. In the comparable 1969 period, total investments decreased $68 million. On the liability side, demand deposits dropped $205 million, compared with a decline of $151 million a year before. Deposits of individuals, partnerships, and corporations declined $201 million, while deposits of the Government dropped $53 million and interbank deposits dropped $72 million. Deposits of states and their political subdivisions rose, however, increasing $140 million. Total time and savings deposits increased $50 million, in contrast to a decline of $20 nlillion a year earlier. This increase can be attributed primarily to gains of $33 million in deposits of individuals, partnerships, and corPOrations and $12 million in deposits of states and their political subdivisions. Large certifiCates of deposit increased $49 million. Department store sales in the E leventh District for the four weeks ended May 23 were 5 Percent higher than in the corresponding period last year. Cumulative sales through that date \Vere 3 percent higher than a year earlier. , Registrations of new passenger automobiles i the major metropolitan reporting areas of SeXas - Dallas, Fort Worth, Houston, and an Antonio - were 16 percent higher in April ~han in March. This advance resulted primarily roUl a 37-percent increase in Houston. Total registrations were 5 percent lower than in April J 969. The cumulative total for the first four months of 1970 was 8 percent lower than in the same period a year before. Daily average crude oil production in the, four producing states of the Eleventh District totaled 6,878,200 barrels in April- 1.2 percent more than in March. This increase brought the daily average to a level 6.7 percent higher than in April 1969. Production in Louisiana advanced 2.0 percent over March to a level 6.2 percent higher than a year before. New Mexico posted a decline of 0.5 percent, which brought production to a level 1.7 percent higher than a year earlier. In Oklahoma, production increased 0.8 percent but was still 0.4 percent lower than in April last year. Texas production was up 0.9 percent to a level 9.1 percent higher than a year before. The Texas allowable was reduced from 64.5 percent of maximum efficient production in May to 59 percent in June. This is the second consecutive reduction from the 68-percent rate that held for the first four months of the year. Cited as reasons for the cutback were lower nominations and higher crude stocks, resulting from refinery turnarounds and the seasonal slack in demand as needs for fuel oil fell and the summer buildup in demand for gasoline began. The temporary shutdown of offshore production associated with a recent oil spill has brought several special adjustments in the Louisiana allowable. To make up shortfalls in production, the allowable was raised in April from the expected rate of 48 percent to 50 percent. But as offshore production resumed, the allowable previously announced for May was reduced, from 50 percent to 49 percent. The rate for June was announced at 49 percent. The daily allowable for regulated wells in southeastern New Mexico was cut from 75 barrels in May to 70 barrels in June. Nomina- business review/june 1970 15 tions were up slightly over May, but at the higher production rate, producers had to flare too much casinghead gas. The Oklahoma allowable remained unchanged at 125 percent. Seasonally adjusted, the Texas industrial production index dropped 0.7 percent in April, to 175.8 percent of tlle 1957-59 base. All of the decline was in manufacturing. Petroleum refining and production of transportation equipment slowed substantially. Only two manufacturing groups - leather goods and primary metals showed increases. Utilities were unchanged. In April, as in other recent months, oil activity was a major force sustaining the index level. Based primarily on increased oil production, total mining output rose nearly 2.0 percent. The total index was up 6.3 percent over April 1969. Utilities were up 12.6 percent, and mining was up 8.8 percent. Manufacturing also rose, but only 4.4 percent. All the year-to-year new tnetnber bank 16 increase in manufacturing was due to a gain in the production of nondurable goods. Production of durable goods registered a slight decline. Total nonagricultural wage and salary elllployment in the five southwestern states rose less than seasonally expected in April to 6,352,600. Manufacturing employment showed continued weakness, declining 0.6 percent in contrast to an expected seasonal increase of 1.0 percent. Nonmanufacturing payrolls were up, with all categories except transportation and public utilities rising. Construction, trade, and services showed the most strength. Moderate year-to-year gains were recorded. Manufacturing employment rose only 0.5 percent over April 1969, and nonmanufacturing increased 4.0 percent. All categories of noOmanufacturing were up except mining, which showed no change. Construction and finance registered the largest gains. The Houston Intercontinental National Bank, Houston, Texas, a newly organized institution located in the territory served by the Houston Branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, opened for business May 15, 1970, as a member of the Federal Reserve System. The new member bank has capital of $240,000, surplus of $240,000, and undivided profits of $120,000. The officers are: A. G. McNeese, Jr., Chairman of the Board ; Wm. B. Black, Jr., President; R. D. Nolen, Jr., Executive Vice President; and Henry H. Efird, Vice President and Cashier. STATISTICAt SUPPIlEMENif to the SUSINESS REVIEW June 1970 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS CONDITION STATISTICS OF WEEI(LY REPORTING COMMERCIAL BANKS RESERVE POSITIONS OF MEMBER BANKS Eleventh Federal Reserve District Eleventh Federal Reserve District IAveroges of daily figure s. In thou sands of dollars) lin thousands of dollars) -= 5 w ee ks end ed It em May 27, 1970 April 29, 1970 May 28, 1969' ASSETS Federal fund s sold and securities purchase d Other loans and discounts, gross .... . .. . . .. ..... 496,025 5,917,150 408,750 } 6,509,397 5,983,676 Commercial and industrial loan s..••....•• ...• 2,909,60 1 2,927,480 3,104,493 109,783 106,784 115,749 500 36,136 500 43,067 501 40,338 1,089 398,889 1,183 392,312 542 382,395 137,338 343,355 594,1 13 11,174 9,772 732,641 135,654 365,705 596,669 9,617 9,872 731,077 139,639 397,031 580,8 17 352,103 5,850 666,735 175 632,584 2,540,349 175 663,581 2,629,679 173,303 605,152 77,403 102,424 611,131 208,134 7,1 51 1,514,551 69,585 1,516,691 11,322 1,297,205 74,892 68,028 1,066,318 682,276 86,944 421,903 5,975 69,492 69,777 1,1 00,895 711,340 85,814 422,271 8,322 148,932 86,336 1,031,881 624,404 80,353 457,634 6,307 516,502 Apr. I, 1970 May 7, 1969 760,527 709,339 51,188 754,176 6,351 50,627 -44,276 732 ,91 2 681,714 51,198 748,574 - 15,66 2 39,943 -55,605 759,848 708,529 51,319 761,901 -2,053 36,05 1 -38,104 780,976 602,650 178,326 764,382 16,594 4,784 11,810 77 1,344 592,429 178,915 751,860 19,484 6,567 12,9 17 778,291 602,895 175,396 763,963 14,328 11 ,704 1,541,503 1,31 1,989 229,514 1,518,558 22,945 55,41 1 -32,466 1,504,256 1,274,143 230,113 1,500,434 3,822 46,510 -42,688 RESERVE CITY 8ANKS Total reserves held • ••. . ....... With Fed eral Reserve Bank • . .. Curre ncy and coin . .......... Re quired rese rves . . . . ... . .. .. . Exc ess reserves •..•• .. .. .. ..... Borrowing s•. ................. Free rese rves .. ........ .. ... .. 954,073 32,384 0 153,464 598,247 84,772 5 weeks ended 0 723,204 2,497,868 48,276 0 - 4 'weeks end ed May 6,1970 It em 382,175 under agreements to res ell ... ... • . .... ...... COUNTRY BANKS Agriculturalloans, excluding CCC certiflcotes of interest • •• .. ...... ...... ... loans to brokers and deal ers for purcha sing or carrying: U.S. Governm ent securiti es ... ............. Othe r securities . .......... ..•.. .. ....... Oth er loans for purchasing or carrying: U.S. Governm ent securities • • . ..•. ••....... Other securities . • . . .......... .. . . . .. .... loans to nonbank flnancial institutions: Sales finance, personal Ananco, factors, and oth er busi ness credit companies ...• .. . Other ............................ . . ... Real estate loan s• . ...........•...• • •...... loon s to dom estic commercial bonks.. • . ..•.... loans to foreign bonks • .....••..•.••....... Consum er instalment loans ••• ..........•. .... loon s to foreign governmen ts, official institutions, central banks, internationa l institutions •... .• ••.•••••••. .•.....••.... Other loans ••.. ........... . ...•..• . ...... Total investments .... . ...•....•••.•...•. •.. . . Total U.S. Government securities • •• .... •.•... . Tr.asury bills .••••••••••••••••••••• • •. . • Treasury certificates of indebtedness • . ••• . . . Treasury notes and U.S. Government bonds maturing: Within 1 year .••.•• .....•.•.•..••.... 1 year to 5 years •. .•••• ... ..• .••••. . • After 5 years . .. .. . ... ...•••...••..... Obligations of states and political subdivisions: Tax warrants and short-term notes and bills .. All oth.r ............................... Other bonds, corporate stocks, and se curities: Certificate s representing participations in Federal agency loons . .... .. . ... •. ..... All other (including corporate stocks) . •..... . Cash items in process of collection . •....•. . ..... Reserves with Federal Reserve Bank •••. ....... . . Currency and coin . .....•........ . ....... . . .. Balances with banks in the Unite d States .... ..... Balances with bonks in foreign countrie s . .•. ..... Other assets (including investments in subsidiaries not consalidot.d) •••..•••• ••.••.• •• • ••• •• .• 875,727 39,244 0 513,732 TOTAL ASSETS ......................... 11,730,672 ---904,134 Total reserves held . .. . ........ With Fed eral Re se rve Bank • . .. Curr ency and coin .. .. .. ..... Require d re serve s . ............ Excess reserves . .............. Borrowing s. .. •. .............. Free reserves. . ............... Total rese rves held . ........... With federa IR ese rve Bank •• . . Currency and coin . ........ . . Re quired reserves . ....... . ... . Excess reserves ..... ........... Borrowings • .................. free rese rves. . ............... 1,538,139 1,311,42A 226,7 15 1,525,86 4 12,275 47,755 _35,480 --- CONDITION OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS lin thousands of dollars) ======================================= ~ May 27, April 29, May 28, _ _ __ __ _ Ite _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _l~ 7~0_ _ _~~7 0~_ _ _I~~ _ _m 9~ 1 9~ Total gold certiAcote reserves.. ... •••• •• . . . . Discounts for memb er banks •.. " . ••• . . . •• . . 259,887 101,085 270,478 123,585 Other discounts and advances. . . .. . . . ... . . . 5,040 5,040 U.S. Governm ent securities . • • . . . • • . . • • • . • . . Total earning assets ••••..• .•..••.•. '" . . . • Member bank reserve deposits...... .. ...... 2,487,243 2,593,368 1,179,910 1 746729 2,393,357 2,52 1,982 1,240,413 1 7 17920 Federal Re se rve notes in actual circulation . .... 244,6 40 30,09 9 0 2 245,89 1 2'275,99 0 1'135,6 17 1'15539 0 ------------------------------'-----------'------'--~ ' ' ---- ---11,867,249 11,590,019 CONDITION STAT)STlCS OF ALL ·MEMBER BANKS LIABILITIES Total deposits ............ .. .... . . .... ... ... 9,042,932 9,107,418 Total demand deposits .. •.. .. .... . .. ... .... Individuals, partnership s, and corporations .• • . States and political subdivisions ...... . •• . . . U.S. Govern ment . . .• ........••....•• .. .. Banks in the United State s•••. .....• ... .•.. Foreign: Governm ents, official institutions, central bank s, international institutions • ......• . Commercial banks. .. ...... ...•. .. ..•.. Certified and officers' ch ecks, etc .. . ........ Total time and savings d epo sits .. . , .. . .. , ... . Ind ividuals, partnerships, and corporations: Savings depo sits . ................. . •.. Other tim e deposits.. ........ . ......... Stotes and political subdivisions . ........... U.S. Gove rnment (including postal savings) . .. Banks in the United States .... ..... •• ...... Foreign: Governments, olAcial institution s, central banks, international in stitutions • ...•.•. . Commercial bonks ... .... .... .. . ....... Federal funds purchased and securities sold under agreem ents to repurchas e • ••...•. .... . Other lia b ilities for borrowed money .• .• ... . .... Other liabilities • •... . ........ '" . ... ... .... . Reserves on loans . •.. ..•. .... . . . •........... Reserves on securities ... ..•. ... .. ...... ...... Total capitol accounts . ..... ............••• •.. 5,642,053 3,932,895 327,355 129,307 1,151,453 5,705,180 3,942,047 340,336 173,876 1,136,881 9,41 7,382 ---5,659,082 3,870,381 389,017 159,574 1,109,15 2 3,654 23,069 74,320 3,400,879 2,729 25,719 83,592 3,402,238 2,589 25,378 10 2,991 3,758,300 918,260 1,679,164 757,455 7,193 23,247 914,233 1,668,016r 775,292 7,254 22,873r 994,735 2,043,356 672,759 11 ,858 28,102 Eleventh Federal Reserve Di strict (In millions of dolla rs ) ================================~ Apr. 29, Mar. 25, Apr. 39°' 11,589 2,026 3,375 1,240 264 1,162 11,456 2,029 3,230 1,3 29 255 1,1 74 11,09\ 2,3533 11 1'272 '25 1 1,1 94 ~==--------------------------~9~7~0------1~9~70 ----~~ 1 ~ Item ASSETS Loons and discounts, gross' • •• •• . . . • • • . . . . U.S. Government obligations.. . . . • . • . . . • . . Other securities................ ... ..... Reserves with Federal Reserve 8ank...... . . Ca sh in vault.......................... Balances with banks in the Unite d States. . . . 13,220 1,350 814,890 270,622 463,907 133,25 1 13,278 991,792 855,176} 326,610 435,449 134,422 13,275 994,899 ---- 7,000 490 834,207 260,676 11 8,322 n.a. 959,432 Ba lance s with banks in foreig n countrl es e .. . . 11 11 Cash itoms in process of coll ection. • • • • . . . . Other a ssets° .... .. .... .. ......... '" . . 1,259 815 1,161 854 TOTAL ASSETse ................. ... . 14,210 1,350 TOTAL L1A8ILITIES, RESERVES, AND CAPITAL ACCOUNTS ••• •..• •• .••• •• ... 11 ,730,672 21,741 21,499 Deman d deposits of banks . ........ . . Other demand deposits .... . ......... : : .. Time deposit s... ....•.. .. .. .. ........ : : 1,485 8,778 7,379 1,463 8,655 7,258 Total deposit s . ..•......... . ... ... Borrowing s• ............ . ........... : : : 17,642 1,238 1,097 1,764 17,376 1,294 1,077 1,752 LIABILITIES AND CAPITAL ACCOUNTS Other liobilitiese •.. •.... .. •..••.•.•...• Total capitol accounts e . ...... . ..... . ... . 11 ,867,249 11 ,590,019 Because of format revisi ons a s of July 2,1969, earlier data are not fully comparabl e . r - Rev ised . n.a . Not available. 1 2,62A ALL MEMBER 8ANKS TOTAL LIABILITIES AND CAPITAL 8 ----1 410 '679 ~ 1 A8S 9'053 7:6 81 18,219 1 096 '569 1,6 86 -- ~~~C C O U N T~S~ ~~.~.-•~.~.~- .-. -• •- .-. -.•- .-. -..__~1,7 4=1=___-==,=9=9~___ A ~~~~- e.. . •. 2== 21 4 ~ 1 Be fore.July 2 ,1969 , thi s item was published on a net ba sis. Estimated . e- BANK DEBITS, END-Of-MONTH DEPOSITS, AND DEPOSIT TURNOVER (Dollar amounts in thousands, seasonally adiusted) = DE61TS TO DEMAND DEPOSIT ACCOUNTS' DEMAND DEPOSITS' Perce ntag e change April 1970 Standard metropolitan stati stical are a 4 months, (Annuol ·rote March ba sis) ARIZONA, Tucso n •.. .. ..••.....•...•......•.•....... LOUISIANA, Monroe ••••..••...•••.•......•.•... .. .• Shreve port ...... .... .... .. ............ .. NEW MEXICO, Roswell ' ..•. . ••...••• .•..• •. ... • •...• TEXAS, Abilene .................................... . 1970 Texarkana {Texa s· Arkan sas) .. ..... .. ........... Tyler •••••.•••••••••.••• •• ..... • ..•• •. ...• .• Waco .. . . .................... .. ..... ....... Wichita Falls .. .............................. 5,728,164 2,721,6 12 10,384,560 977,940 2,100,600 5,6 10,900 8,443,872 6,259,428 1,951,872 4,665,704 477,792 11 7,514,306 7,027,464 21,567,576 2,628,684 102,026,666 943,392 4,473,628 1,733,916 1,953,336 1,647,252 1,230,384 17,069,352 1,1 32,966 1,483,660 2,199,024 3,180,624 2,2 16,1 52 -4 4 7 14 5 -6 - 14 3 8 -5 9 -5 1 2 -4 6 0 3 4 -I - 1 I 3 4 4 4 6 7 10101_28 centers •••..••..•••••••••...•.•..•••....•• $339,573,072 April 1969 0 Amarillo .. .• . ..........•..... . .. .... ... .... . Austin .................... . . .........•...... Beaumont· Port Arthur·O rang e ...... ............ Brownsvill e-Ha rlingen-San Benito .. .. .....•... . .. Corpus Christi . ..... ..... ...... . ..... .... ..... Corsicana 2 •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• Dalla s, .. ......... .. .......•................ EI Paso • .•.•••.•..••...•• • ....• •... . •• ...... Fort Worth ...... .... .. ... ... ..... . .......... Galve ston-Texas City . ....................... . Houston . ...... .. . .......................... Lare do ...........................•... . .. ... lubbock ........................ ...... ...... McAli en- Pharr-Edlnburg ••.•.•...•...• . .•.•• ..•• Midland •..• •• .• ••...••. ..•• •. •..•..... •.. .• Od essa ..................................... San Angelo . . ... ...... ...................... San Antonio ......... . . . .... ................. Sherman· Denison ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• ---- $ Annual rate of turnover April 1970 from April 30, 1970 9 12 36 16 10 6 -7 4 15 6 I 6 9 7 5 21 18 -8 2 6 8 8 13 17 -9 0 14 -8 17 11 39 16 5 15 1 5 14 9 5 11 9 II 14 14 12 0 4 2 14 9 12 12 -9 7 15 -4 II 12 Apri l 1970 March 1970 April 1969 $ 223 ,337 62,293 228,033 36,241 98,146 156,1 44 344,966 230,731 73,947 206,336 31,415 2,086,031 232,235 639,336 109,275 2,411 ,1 99 38,821 154,433 96,565 130,567 77,90 1 65,7 13 634,553 64,486 66,497 87,415 112,738 116,186 1970 from 1969 25.1 33.5 44.6 25.6 21.1 35.5 26.4 26 .7 26.0 23.5 15.3 55.3 30.6 33.5 24.6 41.6 24.0 29.3 17.7 14.6 20.6 16. 1 27.0 17.5 21.7 24.2 27.8 19.0 25.7 32.2 41.9 22.7 20.3 37.7 34.6 25.6 24.1 25.1 14. 1 57.6 30.6 33.5 25.7 39.2 23.6 29.0 17.0 14.7 20.6 17.9 27.0 17.0 20.5 22.8 25.6 17.8 24.4 29.3 33.0 23.7 19.0 34.8 31.4 25.7 23.5 22.4 15.2 51.5 29.5 31.9 24.7 35.7 20.9 32.1 18.6 13.6 20.2 17.5 25.0 16.0 23.1 23.5 24.0 20.6 38.1 36.2 35 .1 ---$6,639,544 ~ Deposits of individuals, partnerships, and corporations and of statcs and political subdivision s. COunty basis. GROSS DEMAND AND TIME DEPOSITS Of MEMBER BANKS Eleventh Federal Reserve District (Averages of daily figures. In mil lions of dollars) BU ILD ING PERMITS Date Total Reserve city banks 1968, April .. . ... 1969, April ...... Novembe r.. December .. 1970, January . . . Fe bruary... March ..... April ...... 9,655 10,497 10,373 10,692 10,793 10,256 10,284 10,497 4,486 4,693 4,750 4,947 4,910 4,625 4,727 4,619 VALUATION (Dollar amounts in thousands) Percent chang e April 1970 from NUM6ER 4 mos . 1970 Mar. 1970 Apr. 1969 4 months, 1970 from 1969 2,8 16 $ 16,687 -52 -69 - 1 229 1,552 1,669 1,646 5,679 9,992 195 1 27 -69 146 2,257 1,405 591 265 1,312 7,337 13 1 1,792 1,464 284 11 ,5 19 200 740 193 273 278 204 4,649 232 111 755 259 78 1 1,965 9,356 853 196 2,748 24,942 260 7,548 7,095 823 41,523 364 8,5 14 346 383 143 276 9,366 525 1,585 3,615 1,6 29 2,876 19,703 33,020 3,712 1,062 11,576 115,353 1,652 34,326 27,105 2,742 138,716 1,62 4 18,467 1,184 3,513 795 4,537 32,654 4,863 4,006 12,225 3,682 344 -18 - 10 -50 152 -57 -55 - 15 -69 39 - 10 -8 -14 -26 -63 12 -26 46 1 -9 58 - 66 -45 33 14 71 224 20 -39 106 -48 -9 -77 40 13 -90 1 -24 -66 -13 -3 55 -3 1 -22 -77 154 4 120 35 96 -39 - 10 -7 4 mos. 1970 676 2,400 50 462 44 496 416 190 Brow~o~t ••••• C svill e .... 94 384 D~lra~s Christi . . 1,935 balllso· .. ···· . 57 EI p n ....... 598 Fortay; .. . . ... 448 G I orlh ••.• 80 ~:IJ;t~ston ...• . laredon ...... 2,636 70 LUbb ...... . 226 Mid i ock • .. •.• 85 Od.~snd . • . •.• 93 Po a ....... Sa rt Arthur .... 77 48 Sa" Angelo ••• Sh:r~~tonlo . . . 1,415 78 T . n ...... W ltarkana .. .. 27 oCo 230 \Vlchit~' F~il;: : 81 101 01 --~ci ti es •. ll,OOO April 1970 ~RIZONA LOlucso n........ UISIANA Monroe_ West Sh Monroe ••••• IEX;;veport • ••• ~bil ene .••...• Amarillo ..... . B~~t~n ........ Country banks Total Reserve cit y banks Country bonks 5,169 5,604 5,623 5,745 5,883 5,631 5,557 5,676 6,973 7,704 7,266 7,203 7,106 7,145 7,23 1 7,328 2,869 2,966 2,690 2,628 2,568 2,554 2,561 2,634 4,104 4,716 4,578 4,575 4,540 4,591 4,650 4,694 19 -41 April 1970 ~eo TIME DEPOSITS GROSS DEMAND DEPOSITS ~ 40,598 $ 131 ,23 1 $5 12,173 -u -19 -57 -37 -26 64 -6 53 -25 243 -35 -73 43 -73 -30 -42 476 -48 29 - 16 VALUE Of CONSTRUCTION CONTRACTS (In millions of dollars) January-April Ar ea and type April 1970 March 1970 Fe bruary 1970 1970 1969 FIV E SOUTHWESTERN STATES' •..•...•.•.•.... Resid ential building ...• ... Nonreside ntial building .... Nonbuilding construction ... UNITED STATES .......... .. Residential building ...• •.. Nonresidential building .. .. Nonbuilding construction .. . 7 11 256 272 18 3 6,757 2,466 2,413 1,878 1,011 254 332 425 6,140 1,974 2,191 1,975 552 210 214 129 5,249 1,462 2,269 1,496 2,650 9 11 995 944 22,636 7,306 9.004 6,526 2,163 928 672 564 20,327 8,073r 7,673 4,426 Arizona, loui siana, New Me xico, Oklahoma, and Texas. R evisod. NOTE . - De tail s may not add to totol s because af rounding . SOURCE , F. W . Dodge, McGraw-Hili, In c. 1 r- WINTER WHEAT PRODUCTION CASH RECEIPTS FROM FARM MARKETINGS (In thousands of bushels) (Dollar a mo un ts in tho usa nds) 1970, Area Ma y 1 1969 1968 Arizona ••• . ... ......... .. .. Texas ....... .. . .. ......... . 9,246 1,161 5,880 108,3 15 67,886 4,52 6 874 5,088 11 8,275 68,856 2,704 2, 11 2 7,625 122,383 84,150 Total .. ................. .. 192,488 197,619 2 18,974 louis iana .... . ............ . . New Mexico .• . •.. ... .•••.... Oklohomo .••••. • •.. • •••••.• = Jan ua ry-March ind icated Percent Area 1970 1969 change ------------------------~------------------Arizona ... . .. .. ..... . . . . .. . $ 11 5,400 $ 119,000 -3 Louisia na .. ... . . .. .. .. ...•. . 108,900 111 ,700 -3 N ew Me xico . . .... .. . ... .... . 47,800 42,800 12 Oklahoma •••••.. •••• •..• ... Tex as ... ... .... .. . .. ... . . . . 224,400 607,000 175,500 572,000 28 6 Total..................... Uni ted States. ... .... .. . ... $ 1,103,500 $ 10,990,400 $ 1,021,000 $ 10,003,200 10 --------------------------------------------------------------SOURCE , U.S. Departm ent of Ag ri culture . SOURCE, U.S . Department of Agriculture. DAILY AVERAGE PRODUCTION OF CRUDE OIL (In thousonds of borre ls) COTTON ACREAGE, PRODUCTION, AND VALUE OF PRODUCTION (In thou sand s) Percent chang e from April 1970 Are a FOUR SOUTHWESTERN STATES ..... . . . ........ . louisiana .... ........ . .. New Mexico . ............ O kl ahoma •.••.. • .••••.• Texas . .. .. .. . .. .. .. .. . . Gulf Coa st • . . . ..••. •• • West Texa s ........... East Texas (p raper) ••..• Panhandl e •••. '" .• •.. Rest of state .•••••••••• UNIT ED STATES ............ March 1970 March 1970 April 1969r April 1969 Acreag e harves ted I Bol es produced 1 Area 6,878.2 2,492.0 359.0 618.3 3,408.9 694.7 1,616.3 207.0 82.7 808.2 9,677.8 6,796.4 2,442.4 360.7 613.5 3,379.8 677.8 1,62 1.0 185.0 84.6 811.4 9,598.0 1.2 2.0 - .5 .8 .9 2.5 -.3 11.9 -2 .3 -.4 .8 6,446.4 2,346.5 353 .0 621.0 3,125.9 624.1 1,470.5 152.9 85.0 793.4 9,232.0 6.7 6.2 1.7 -.4 9.1 11.3 9.9 35.4 -2 .7 1.9 4.8 1969 1968 1969 Ari zon a .. .. .. Louisiana ... . . N ew M ex ico ... 310 420 146 465 4,675 298 410 151 380 4, 125 634 483 157 279 2,862 734 545 176 264 3,525 6,016 11,075 5,364 10,160 4,4 15 10,015 5,244 10,948 Okla homa ••.• Texa s........ Total ....... Unit ed States = --- Valu e of lint and see d 1968 --- 1969 $ 1968 80,495 61,643 22,27 1 31,234 314,542 102,39~ 73,42 25,57 1 30,39 6 419,387 ---$ 510,185 $ 1,210,994 1 500 pounds gross weight. SOURCE, U.S. Department of Agriculture. ---$ 651,1 73 $1,446,513 SOURCES, American Petrole um Institute. U.S. Bureau of Mines. Federa l Reserve Bank of Dallas. NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (Seasonall y adiusted indexes, 1957·59 = Five Southweste rn Stotes' 100) =======================================~ Perc ent change Are a and ty p e of index April 1970p March 1970 February 1970 April 1969 175.8 194.5 212.9 182.3 134.5 255.2 177.0 198.2 218.4 184.8 132.2 255.2 175.6r 195.3 r 220.3 178.6r 13 2.3r 258.2r 165.4r 186.3 r 214. 1r 167.8 r 123 .6r 226.7r 170.4 170.1 168.8 171.6 135.5 23 1.5 171. 1 170.7 170.4 171.4 136.1 230.0 170.5r 170.3r 169.5r 171.3 r 134.3 r 230.2r 17 1.7 173.0r 175.7 169.6r 128.8r 216.3 Type of em ployment TEXAS Total in dustrial prod uction •... .. Manufacturing ........... •. ... • Durable . ... . ....... .. . .... . . Nondurable •••. • .• •.• ..••.. .• Mining .• •..... . . .. . ...... . . .. Utilities • ..•....•. .. .. ......... UNITED STATES Total industrial production .•.. . . Manufacturing ............. . ... Duroble •••••..•.• .•• •••.••.. Nondurable •• •• •• ••••.•••• • .. Mining ••. ....... . . . ....... . .. Utilities •..... . . .. .. . . . .... .. .. p r - __ Pre liminary. Revisod . SOURCES, Boord of Governors of th e Federal Rese rve System. Federal Reserve Bank of Dollas. ~----N -m be-r-o-f~p-e-rs-o-n-s--------~ -u -April March April Mar. AP'9 1970p 1970 1969r 1970 196 6,352,600 1,1 65,000 5,187,600 229,500 408,200 6,315,900 1,1 72 ,300 5,143,600 229,400 40 1,500 6,148,300 1,159,000 4,989,300 229,400 387,600 0.6 - .6 .9 .0 1.7 3.3 .5 462,200 1,463,800 323 ,100 1,015,600 463 ,200 1,446,700 320,000 1,002,800 447,400 1,398,600 302,800 972,800 ----------------~----~~--~~--~~~ Total nonagricultural wage and sal ary workers . . M anufa cturing .. .. • ...... Nonma nufacturing .. ..... . Mining . . •. . ..... .. ... Construction . . ...•... . . Tran sport ation and public utiliti es .... ... . Trade . ..... . .. ... .. . . Finance • . • .. .......... Service . .......... .. . . Government •........ .. 4.~ '3 5. -.2 3} 1.2 ~ '1 1.0 4', 1.3 2: 8 ~~~~~~~~~~~ 2-5-~0~ 1,~ 8 ,2 0~-- 80-,0 01 , 2- - 0--- 50 ,7 O_____4 ~ 1, 2--- O . __ 1 Arizona: p r - ~ouisjana, N ew Me xi co, O klahom a, and Texa s. Pre lImin a ry. Revised . SOU RCE, Stote e mplo yme nt ogencies.