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MONGJrHL'lC REVIEW FEDERAL RES E R V E BANK o F June 1,1952 DALLAS, TEXAS Vol. 37, No.6 DALLAS BROILER PRODUCTION IN THE ELEVENTH DISTRICT Commercial broiler production in the Eleventh Federal Reserve District has had a phenomenal rate of growth during the past decade. Since 194.0, annual production has risen from 9,000,000 birds to more than 61,000,000 birds, or 570 percent. This multiple increase in broiler production, reflecting the increased Consumer demand for poultry meat, has been accompanied by a rapid expansion in production of hatching eggs, an increase in output of broiler chicks by commercial hatcheries, an increase in production of high-quality poultry feeds, marked improvement in poultry management, ~ the development of new measures for disease control, an expansion of poultry processing facilities, and an extension of marketing and distribution channels. The broiler industry, including production, processing, and distribution, is rapidly becoming an important source of income in many parts of the Eleventh District. Commercial broiler production in the states of the District returned to growers in 1951 a cash income of around $51,000,000, or more than was obtained from the production of such other farm commodities as farm chickens, mohair, turkeys, corn, oats, hay, or peanuts. Broiler raising is one of the more important sources of farm income in many counties of the District, including McLennan, Gonzales, Nacogdoches, Shelby, Angelina, San Augustine, Cherokee, Rusk, and Sabine Counties, Texas; Pima County, Arizona; Choctaw County, Oklahoma; and DeSoto and Lincoln Parishes, Louisiana. The broiler industry in the District has grown so fast during the past decade that questions sometimes are raised concerning its long-term soundness. Some bankers, feed dealers, and others engaged in financing the broiler business have expressed anxiety with regard to the wisdom of helping to promote further development and expansion of the industry_ They are concerned lest the produclion of broilers greatly exceed the demand, or the rapidity of expansion be at the expense of efficiency, with ultimate losses to producers and creditors alike_ Many others are enthusiastic as to lhe longrun future and profit possibilities of this industry. The following pages of this article indicate that the outlook for the industry is generally good, in view of the growing demand for broilers and the increasing efficiency with which' they are produced and marketed. Commercial Broiler Versus Farm Chicken GROSS FARM INCOME FROM BROILERS I Four Southwestem States2 (In thousands of dollars) Total Year 1934 ........... 1935 .... . _.... 1936 .......... 1937 .......... 1938 .... _..... 1939 .... _.... _ 1940 ...... . .. . 19.41 •••• • •.... 1942 .......... 1943 .......... 1944 .......... 1945 .......... 1946 .. _ ....... 1947 ......... . 1948 .......... 1949 .. ........ 1950 .... _..... 1951 .... ...... • Arizona Louisiana 32 60 92 134 161 226 323 504 787 517 678 566 517 837 875 1,033 1,085 108 132 147 20 8 202 187 248 314 629 1,003 1,057 1,240 1,174 1,326 1.738 2,358 1,750 3,912 Oklahoma 450 539 684 729 768 666 595 476 497 675 583 858 607 718 998 1,513 2.160 TeJl.Qs 510 720 900 1,080 1,440 1.500 2,448 3,168 5,683 8,395 7,540 9,245 9,468 8,748 .. statel 1,068 1,423 1,791 2,109 2,5.44 2,S14 3,517 4,281 7,313 10,860 9,697 12,021 Twenty years ago most of the chicken meat produced and consumed came from surplus cockerels and birds culled from laying flocks_ At that time, laying hens in the United Stales averaged only about 90 to 95 eggs per hen per year, but in 1951 layers averaged 1'45 eggs each. As improvements in poultry developed, there were fewer laying hens in relation to egg output, and, relative to the growing number of consumers, there was less and less poultry meat available from the layin g flocks. Commercial broiler raising, therefore, was started to fill that "gap_" The growth of the commercial broiler industry has been accompanied by Lhe development of a new kind of chicken25,231 Lhe broiler chicken. Poultry breeders, in effect, have re30,811 4,295 51,635 designed the chicken in recent years and have come up with what they enthusiastically describe as a new balloon-breasted I Includes home consumption, which II ress thon 1 percent of tolal production. 2 There Is some scattered production In New Mexico, but no officiol estimates are a't'ailable. model. No longer a leftover from the laying flock, it is an SOURCE; United States Department of Agriculture. This publication was digitized and made available by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' Historical Library (FedHistory@dal.frb.org) 14,148 20,485 25,868 .42,343 11,815 11,309 17,721 MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 78 BROILERS PRODUCED M Ill" lonl I,~ 00 00 I UNITED iTATE? _ 00 ~88° 6 00 400 /" Y 4z __ -~J'i"_---"- T- oo 80 60 40 ,If!..::... DELAWARE, "..- , " ... " ~ MA~:~'ND, ... " - 1--- VIRGINIA I ,.,. .r I ..... , ,"~ t:.( 81- ARKANSAS..,.. ~ 8 / 4 r- ---:.•••::: / ..... 2~. ... I /1 .;;;6..···,·.......... / - ;* ~ .~4 - ......... /.~.. 20r- -".' I -- MI 11011. J 00 00 60 4o 20 I m. /- o o I GEORGIA I .,,'" . 1940 1945 ,.>0 4 200 I , ..' ··2 Two states competing for third place are Arkansas and Texas, which in 1951 produced 69,800,000 and 50,400,000 broilers, respectively_ Texas has gained third place in the first half of 1952, as indicated by broiler chick placement reports. Other important producing areas are in North Carolina, California, Missouri, Maine, Connecticut, Florida, Indiana, Alabama, and Mississippi. I entirely new bird- a superior meat·type chicken. It has a deep, broad breast, plumper thighs, drums6cks the shape of bowling pins, and more meat in relation to bone throughout. It also has fewer pinfeathers, is uniform in size, faster grow· ing, and makes more efficient use of feed than does the common-type farm chicken. This new kind of chicken also fits well into the farmers' production line. By feeding birds to market size in 9 to 11 weeks, growers can turn out three or four crops a year and make full use of buildings and equipment. Broilers also are rated high in efficiency of gr,a in consumption. Many producers get an average of a pound of meat to 3 to 312 pounds of feed; some do even better than that. Broilers are produced in houses under conditions of close confinement and, as a result, stay more tender and do not "run off" their gain. Broiler production in the Eleventh District is heavily concentrated in Texas around Waco, Gonzales, and N acogdochesCenter, as shown on the accompanying map. Of the 61,397,000 broilers produced in the states of the District in 1951, Texas accounted for about 50,4.08,000, or 82 percent. The estimates of broiler production by states are based on commercial hatchery output of broiler chicks, with adjustments for known in-shipments or out-shipments, and there are no official estimates of commercial broiler production in the respective producing areas . Local estimates, however, reflecting the consensus of a large number of feed dealers, hatcherymen, and processors, indicate that production of broilers in the Waco area in 1951 totaled about 6,000,000 to 7,000,000 birds. Estimates of production in the Gonzal es area, although varying widely, seem to center around an. output of 16,000,000 to 18,000,000. Output in the Nacogdoches-Center area is placed at about 18,000,000 to 20,000,000, leaving some 8,000,000 to 10,000,000 scattered from the Rio Grande to the Red River, mostly in the eastern half of the State. Production centering around Paris, Texas, extends over into southeastern Okla- ~ homa, Since 1950, there has been a rapid growth of pro- • duction in Louisiana, with output in the northern part of the State centered around Ruston but extending east and west along U. S. Highway 80, There is an extension of the Center, Texas, area over into Louisiana as far as Natchitoches. There is also an area of production around Tucson, Arizona. BROILERS PRODUCED Four Southwestern States 1 (In thousands) Trends in Broiler Production Total Year United Statcs broiler growers last year produced a record 791,000,000 birds, according to estimates compiled by the United States Department of Agriculture; production in 1952 is expected to set a new record of some 850,000,000 to 900,000,000 birds. Production is heavil y concentrated in several areas, the most important through 1951 being the Del-Mar·Va section, This area, which is comprised of parts of Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia, last year produced about 160,000,000 birds; other areas in these same states produced about 26,000,000, bringing the 3-state total to 186,000,000. 193£, • .. • ... . . 1935 .......... 1936 ..... ... .. 1937 .......... 1938 .......... 1939 .......... 1940 .......... 1941 .. ........ 1942 .... .... .. 1943 .......... 1944 .......... 1945 ••. .•• .... 1946, ••..• .... 1947 ••.•.•. ... 1948 •... .•.... 19.49 • . • •• ... • . 1950 ......... . 1951 •• . ••••••• Arizona louisiana 50 100 140 280 280 360 450 610 793 476 738 517 450 729 838 1,048 1,100 250 300 350 400 450 500 600 700 1,100 1,540 1,232 1,540 1,309 1,244 1,617 2.426 2,'46 4,507 Oklahoma 1.000 1,100 1.200 1.350 1,450 1,600 1,400 1.100 900 1,000 800 1,000 800 704 1,056 2,006 2,909 5.382 Texas .4 states 1.500 2.000 2.500 3,000 4,000 5,000 6.800 8,800 12,300 14,400 12,600 2,750 3.450 4,150 4,890 6,180 7,380 9.160 , 1,050 14,910 17.733 15,108 17,138 15,100 13.001 17.610 30.560 40,130 61,397 13,860 12.474 10.603 14,208 25,290 33,383 50.408 I There is some scattered production in New Mexico, but no offlcial edimates are a.,oiloble. SOURCE: United States Oepartment of Agriculture. At the present time, however, Georgia is feedin g more broilers than Del-Mar-Va, according to reports on weekly broiler chick placements on farms; producers in the latter area have curtailed production, due partly to the presence of a poultry disease called air sac, which is causing heavy losses. In second place last year, Georgia farmers produced about 87,000,000 broilers. Farm Prices of Broilers Broiler prices in the Eleventh District in the postwar years naturally have shown some increase, although they are low • 79 MONTHLY BUSIND3S REVIEW £::) CONC ENTRATED PRODUC TION ~ SCATTE RED PRO DUC TIO N _._--- \ : .stln ~~ZOI.' son~: An t onio COMMERC IAL BROILER PRODUCING AREAS Eleventh Fede ral Reserve Distr ict in comparison with farm commodities generally and with meat animals in particular; there have been short periods of market instability during which prices of broilers dropped to very low levels, as in late April and early May of this year. In Texas, for example, prices of all farm commodities in 1951 averaged almost 260 percent above the 1940 level; beef cattle and lambs were up over 300 percent, and hogs were 280 percent higher, while broiler prices were up only 67 percent. An explanation of these different levels of prices leads back to the increased efficiency in broiler production dis· cussed previously. As growers have produced more and more pounds of broiler with a given poundage of feed and, at the same time, cut sharply the losses from disease, the produc· tion costs per pound of broiler have declined steadily rela· ti ve to the costs of producing a pound of beef, lamb, or pork. Broiler growers have multiplied production to such an extent that market prices of broilers have been held down nearer the cost·or.production level, with the result that much of the benefit from increasing production efficiency has been passed on to the consumer. Beef cattle, lambs, and hogs have not shown such a marked increase in efficiency of feed consump· tion; moreover, had they done so, production of these ani· mals could not have been expanded as rapidly as the output of broilers because of the longer production period required . • • Broiler prices have a number of other distinguishing char· acteristics. They generally hold rather steady but are subject to occasional short periods of marked instability. For example, prices in Texas in early April of this year were around 26 cents per pound for first-quality birds. Within a few days the price dropped to 18 cents, held for several days, and then rose to 28 cents. The real causes of such price changes are somewhat ob· scure, but the volume of production in relation to demand unquestionably is an important factor. During April and early May the volume of broilers ready for the market was running at an all-time high . Since broilers are a perishable product that must be marketed when the desired bird weight is reached, a heavy overhanging supply of birds may have a temporary depressing effect on market prices. Price irregularities also may reflect the efforts of buyers to adjust their stocks and operations to the supply.demand relationship that they foresee. During the first quarter of this year, for example, as processors anticipated a large flow of production to the market, they tended to reduce substantially their holdings of dressed and frozen poultry in anticipation of the decline in broiler prices that might be expected under conditions of temporary excessive supply. Factors such as these, working both at the production an~ marketing levels, probably contributed to the market weakness that occurred in late April and early May. With broiler production growing so rapidly and broiler prices affected by many factors other than production, it is difficult to point to any definite seasonal price pattern. At least a seasonal pattern is too indefinite to be of much benefit to broiler producers in planning their operations. It is true, however, that broiler prices tend to be lower in Dc· tober, November, December, and early January than the MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 80 FARM PRICES, TEXAS 1940-100 , PEIIC m "'"0 '0 CENT 00 ·_·l Ii' 40 0 .;~-. \.-:,Y·' v ~, .. ..:;, 7i--/·····~~ 00 HOGS-l! 30 0 • /1 .- 20 0/' ........ ;..; ~'" / . <."....... , ..,.::;I I 3 00 1.~.(.lAMBS ,/' BEEF I (.". CATTLq· /'~L....-- ~ROILERS ~ 2 00 ~:. 10 0 0 1940 1942- I 00 1944 1946 9'8 19SO The principal areas of competItIOn with Texas in the broiler business are Arkansas, Mississippi, and Georgia. Their distribution zones overlap to a marked extent; and as growers in each of these fou r states compete in many of the same markets, their prices should be comparable, allowing for dilIerences in costs of transportation. Arkansas has shipped many broilers to Texas in past years, although Texas consumption of Arkansas broilers has declined considerably. Okahoma and Louisiana send broilers in, primarily because of the lack of processing facilities in border areas. Some Mississippi and Georgia broilers have been marketed in Texas at times. Furthermore, as dressed broilers from some of the larger poultry processing plants in Texas are marketed by national food distributing organizations, producers in the State compete in many western and midwestern states. Direct shipments by Texas processors are made to a large number of states, as shown in an accompanying map. o 195 2 supply of broilers would indicate (as shown in figures on placement of broiler chicks on farms), but the supply of broilers at that season of the year is supplemented by the seasonally heavy marketing of farm chickens. Likewise, the greater consumption of turkey meat during the holiday sea· son increases the competition which chicken meat faces in the market durin g late November and December. Apart from the tendency for broiler prices to be low in the fourth quarter of the year, low or high prices in other months seem to shift from year to year, depending on the placement of chicks on farms in the commercial broiler areas. Of course, there is a dual relationship between broiler place. ments and broiler prices, in that changes in numbers of broiler chicks placed on farms weekly may cause opposite changes in prices of broilers 9 to 12 weeks later, while changes in prices may cause parallel changes in placements for several weeks. BRO ILERS' FA RM PRICES AND CHICK PLACEMENTS,TEXAS ., CENTS PE" POUNO WEEKLY 'O~-------b--------t--------b THOU SAND S OF CHI CKS 1800 ,'if\ 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 .r-------~------_t------~------__1 200 Financi n g Broile r Production Most of the financing of broiler production during the early years of the industry's development in the District was by feed dealers, working with their respective feed compa· nies. It was a rather common practice for the grower to pro· vide the house; the dealer would provide the chicks and feed , sell the birds for the grower, and deduct the chick and feed bill, interest charges, and other costs from the returns to the producer. During the past 5 years, commercial banks in some of the newer broiler· producing areas have participated in the financing of broiler production. The methods used for han· dling this paper have varied within rather wide limits. In most cases, financing has been done through the feed dealer, with the bank ruscounting the producer's notes made out to the feed dealer. This method of handlin g the loans gives additional security to the paper if it is handled by a reputable dealer. It also enables the bank to build up a sufficient volume • of broiler paper to make the operation worth while. • 0 1952 In other instances, broiler producers have borrowed di· rectly from their banks for the purchase of feed and certain 4 • MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW other expenses incident to the production of broilers. In most cases, this type of loan has been limited to producers who could show a satisfactory net worth statement and who had sufficient collateral other than the broilers for securing the loan. A number of loans for the construction of broiler houses have been made by commercial banks under the provi. sions of Title I of the National Housing Act. Although there are wide variations in the methods of han. dling broiler paper, there are certain principles or guides that should be considered in connection with loan applica. tions for the production of broilers: 1. The producer should have the house and equipment and should give evidence of being a good farm manager. If it is necessary to advance funds for housing, it should be done on a separate loan, with the terms of the loan adapted to the particular situation. 2. Bankers who have not had experience in handling broiler loans should work closely with a reputable feed dealer. Such a dealer should be handling high·quality feed, should be able to assist the grower in selling his birds, and should have a substantial equity in his own business. Some banks insist that the dealer carry 50 percent of the credit outstand. ing on anyone batch of birds, but other banks have advanced a larger proportion of the cost. 3. The bank should make certain that teclmical assistance in feeding and in disease control will be provided the grower by the feed dealer, the county agricultural agent, or other local specialists who are qualified to render such service. The average farmer is not prepared to diagnose disease outbreaks or to analyze carefully the progress of the birds. 4. The producer should have some equity in each group of birds. Often, he is required to pay for the chicks upon de. livery. Credit is then extended for subsequent production costs, primarily feed and medical expenses. A chattel mortgage is always taken on the birds and usually on other livestock or on equipment held by the broiler producer. As in any bank loan, the integrity of the borrower -and, in the case of broiler loans, the feed dealer-is of utmost importance. The market break in late April is a recent reminder to persons in the broiler industry that they can expect losses as well as profits. Many old·time producers expect to lose money on one group of birds each year, break even on an. other group, and make a profit on the two remaining groups. Bankers who enter into the financing of broiler production might keep in mind that there may be certain seasons when paper cannot be paid off at maturity without liquidating the producer; if he is properly equipped and knows how to handle the birds, filling the houses again may be the best procedure. Hatchery Operations Even before the large expansion in broiler production in the Eleventh District, the poultry industry was a leading 81 enterprise in this area. Until only several years ago, Texas was one of the top two or three states in the Nation in the production of eggs. Texas also has been one of the leading producers of farm chickens. Because of .the demand for chicks to supply commercial egg producers and farmers gen· erally, commercial hatchery operations in Texas had reached sizable proportions even before the development of the broiler industry. Hatcheries have merely shifted a major part of their production from chicks for farm flock replacements to broiler chicks. Meanwhile, there has been a tremendous expansion in hatchery facilities- both enlargement of exist· ing facilities and erection of new hatcheries. Most of the larger commercial hatcheries producing broiler chicks in the District are located within broiler producing areas or in hatchery egg producing areas. Those in Texas produced 50,725,000 broiler chicks last year, according to reports of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics in Austin. This represents about 90 percent of the 56,661,000 broiler chicks placed on Texas farms during the year. The remaining 5,936,000 carne principally from Arkansas and Missouri, although some were shipped from such states as Oklahoma, Iowa, Illinois, Mississippi, and Michigan. Texas hatcheries also produced some 31,000,000 chicks last year for farm flock replacements, for a total chick output of about 82,000,000. Hatcheries in Oklahoma produced 20,800,000, while Louisiana hatcheries accounted for 7,235,000. Arizona and New Mexico produced around 1,000,000 chicks each. The full extent to which Texas hatcheries have contributed to the rise of the broiler industry is not told in statistics on production. of broiler chicks, however. Leading hatcheries have played an important part in the increase in production of hatching eggs, and especially in the breeding of improved broiler chicks. Several hatcheries now own large laying flocks which produce disease-free cWcks. One firm has 100,000 pullets wWch were started in the fall of 1951 for laying eggs in the summer and fall of 1952. There is, of course, still an influx of hatching eggs from other states, notably Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Michigan, Nebraska, and I\1inois, although the number brought last year from most of these states was relatively small. Broiler Processing As with the output of baby chicks, the poultry processing industry in the Eleventh District was an important business 10 or more years ago. However, with the growth of the broiler industry, there has been a shift to processing of broilers in the older plants, while new plants have been and are being built in a number of towns and cities in the area. The poultry processing plants in the District are mostly in an area bounded by Dallas, Fort Worth, Waco, Austin, San A ntonio, Gonzales, Houston, Center, Tyler, and Terrell, Texas. Tyler has a plant reported to be one of the largest poultry dressing plants in the Southwest. A new plant under construction at Center, Texas, will be one of the largest in the Nation, equipped to handle 100,000 broilers per week, with space for installing equipment to handle an additional 100,000 weekly when the supply becomes available. MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 82 Texas broiler growers last year produced some 141,000,000 pounds of broilers, and virtually all of these birds were dressed in processing plants in the State. Moreover, Texas farmers sold about 32,000,000 pounds of farm chickens, the greater part of which was processed through these plants. There were several million pounds of broilers brou ght into Texas from border areas of Oklahoma and Louisiana last year for processing. In so far as the Eleventh Federal Reserve District is con· cerned, most of the poultry processing facilities are in Texas, where most of the broilers are grown. There are a few relatively small plants in northern Louisiana, southern New Mexico, and southeastern Arizona which help supply the lo cal demand for poultry meat. Producing Broilers Efficiently A 3·pound bird in 9 weeks, with less than 9 pounds of feed, has become the goal of most producers of commercial broilers in the District. Many growers fall short of this goal, while a few exceptionally efficient operators have been able to reduce the amount of feed to less than 8 pounds for each 3·pound bird. The accompanyin g table shows standards of efficiency that can serve as guides to producers in appraising their own operations. These stan dards are estima tes, based on opinions of men working with the industry and thorou ghly familiar with the operations of broiler producers. be repla ced with 25 4-foot broiler feeders. Waterers should be placed around the house so that the chicks do not have to walk more than 10 feet to get watcr. Automatic waterers are in common use throughout the District, frequently supplemented by the glass jar-type of waterer, especially when the chicks are young. At today's prices, housing and equipment cost about $1.00 per bird capacity. If construction material is available on the farm and if considerable labor can be contributed by the farmer, this cost may be reduced substantiall y. A third problem that should be settled before purchasing chicks is the selection of a market. When the birds reach maturity, they must be sold quickly- usually within a period of 3 or 4 days- if the producer is to avoid loss. In many areas the birds are contracted for sale at the time the chicks are purchased. This assures an outlet when the birds are ready to go . However, if there are regular market outlets in the community, with sufficient buyers to assure prompt movement of the birds from that area, it may not be necessary to contract their sale prior to the time they are ready to be moved. If these three requirements are met, the potential broiler producer is ready to buy his chicks. He should purchase only healthy, broiler-strain chicks guaranteed to be free of pullorum disease. Many different breeds and crossbreeds of chicks are on the market, and the recommendations of local agricultural specialists should be followed if the broiler producer is not familiar with these breeds. In many cases, the breed best suited to a particular area will depend somewhat upon the market demands in that community. STANDARDS OF EFFICIENCY IN COMMERCIAL 8ROILER PRODUCTION Ex.cellent Pounds of feed required per pound of broiler produced •••.. Pounds of feed required per bird (to 3 Ibs.l •••.••.••...•.. Number of weeks for birds to reoch 3 Ibs .•••.•••..••...•.• Percent mortality ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• • ••••••• Birds cored for per man •••••.• , •.•..•....•. . ..• ....•.. Birds produced annually per man •••••••••••••••••••••••• 2.6 7.8 9 2 25,000 100,000 Averege 3.0 9.0 lOY2 5 12,000 36,000 The first requirement for efficient production of broilers is the willingness of the producer to work with chickens and to devote the time needed for their proper care. From 75 to 125 man-hours are required for the production of each 1,000 birds. In practice, this means that about 2 hours will be required each day to care for even the minimum-size broiler unit (generally considered to be 3,000 birds). The birds must be given attention each day, and preferably twice a day. They cannot be left for 2 or 3 days at a time, even though automatic feeding and wateri ng equipment is being used. The second requirement for producing broilers is suitable housing and equipment. In general, from % to 1 square foot of floor space is required per bird. In addition to the housing, a number of feeders and waterers will be required. Attempts to economize on these items usuall y result in slower gains and more feed consumed ror each pound of broiler produced. Usually, 15 4-foot chick feeders are required for each 1,000 birds, and after 4 weeks of age these should 4 After the chicks are placed in the houses, they should be fed high-quality feeds containing all the essential food elements, plus vitamins, antibiotics, and certain preventive medicines. They should be given ample amounts of water and watched carefully for signs of disease. The first few days that the birds are in the house are often critical days from the standpoint of mortality. A sharp drop in temperature, overcrowding of the birds, and unusual excitement or noise can cause severe losses that eliminate the possibility of profit from that particular group of birds. It is difficult to arrive at accurate figures regarding the cost of producing broilers, si nce no cost studies have been made recently in this area, but an accompanyin g t.able gives a general indication of the distribution of costs and the actual dollar values, usin g prices whi ch prevailed in April 1952. Cost of chicks is a rather stable figure, and the cost per pound of feed has no t fluctualed a great deal in the past several years. However, the cost of liller, while a minor item in the total , does vary considerably from area to area, ranging as high as S50 per 1,000 birds. In other communities, suitable litter may be available at a very low cost. Poultry specialists recommend removin g the litter after each batch of birds and replacing it with clean litter. The labor cost is an arbitrary figure, and many .b roiler producers do not count this as a cost, feelin g that any profit r rom the operation will represent their wage. ~ ,. MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 83 ESTIMATED COST OF PRODUCING 1,000 8ROILERS' THE AVERAGE GROWER THE MORE EFFICIENT GROWERS Unit Qucntity cost 1,000 7,800 $0.15 .0 6 10 yd •• 1.00 Tola l cost Unit Quantity "", 1,000 9,000 $0.15 .06 10 yds. 1.00 Total cost CASH COSTS Baby chldu •.••..•..•.•..••••••••••.•••••• • ••.• • ••• .••• •• Feed . .• ••••••••••••••••••••.•• • ••• • ••••• •• • ..•• •••• • ••• Medicine •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• • • • •• •• ••• litter (sond) •••• ••••••• .•••••. ••• ...••••••••••••••••••• •• $150 468 30 10 $740 $658 Total •••••••••••••• •••••••.• • ••• •• •••••••••••••••••• • • $150 540 40 10 OTHER COSTS Oepreciation on houles and equipment (4 percent of original cost) .. Labor............... .. .. ...... ....................... .. 80 man-hours 0;75 10 60 100 mon-hours 0.75 12 75 Totar •••••••• • •••• •••••• •• •••• • • • ••• •••••• • ••••••••• $70 $87 Grand total ••• • • •••••••••••••••••••• •••• ••••• • $72 8 $827 POUNDS OF BRO ILERS PRODUCED Number of e!'Me!.:s purcha sed ••••••••••••••• ••• • ••• • ••••••••• Less mortality ••••• . •••• . •••••• • •••••••••• . ••••••••••••••• Number of birds for sale •• •• • ••• • ••••••••••••••••••••••• • •• Total weight ot 3 pounds .ad! ... . ... •.....• ••• •.. .•••.•. ••• 1,000 -20 1,000 -50 980 2,9401bs. 2,850Ib,. 950 CASH COST PER POUND ........ . ... . ..................... . $0.224 $0.260 TOTAL COST PER POUND •••••••• •• • .•.• •• . • ••. • .••••••••••• $0.248 $0.290 1 Data pertain to birds that ar. fed ta average wieght of 3 pound" Prlc", lJIed are tho •• whIch prevaile d generally in Tua , during April 1952. Outlook Most of the problems in the broiler industry today are typical of those facing any relatively new and rapidly expand. ing industry. Inexperienced producers are entering the field in new areas, and they are encountering the problems of obtaining adequate financing, learning new management skills, and developing satisfactory market outlets. Other phases of the industry, such as the hatcbing of chicks, mixing and di stribution of scientifically prepared feeds, processing of the mature birds, and the distribution of poultry meat, are facing constant and at times sharp adjustments as they attempt to fit their operations to the location and volume of broiler production. During this period of adjustment and growth of the industry, mature birds frequently are trans· ported relatively long distances, resulting in considerable loss of weight. Quality standards for dressed broilers are not widely understood or used. Basic economic forces, such as the demand for broilers, transportation costs, and costs of producing, processing, and distributing the birds, wiII dictate the ultimate answers to these problems. Therefore, these problems must be givoo careful study by leaders in the industry in order that their solution may be made on a sound basis that will stimulate confidence in the industry and give stability to its operations, • , The most fundamental problem facing the industry con· cerns the long· run outlook for the demand for broiler meat. Is the industry overexpanding in relation to the probable lon g.run demand for broilers, or will consumers continue to increase their demands for thi s type of meat as they have in the past decade? Can broiler producers compete success· fully with beef if it becomes more competitive in price? Can production costs be lowered further through the develop· ment of even better feeds and more efficient strains of chicks? Th ere is su bsl1lntial basis for optimism concerning the long·run outlook for the broiler industry in this area. This conclusion reflects the consensus of leaders in the industry, although they are generally cautious in their optimism and mindful of the many problems that confront the industry in the years ahead. The prospect of a continued strong demand for broiler meat is the most favorable aspect of the outlook. This fore· cast of a relatively high demand is supported by factors such as an anticipated high level of consumer income, a growing population, a relatively high per capita consumption of chicken, and increased advertising and promotional work on the part of the industry. The anticipated high level of consumer income is of par· ticular interest to broiler growers, as statistical studies of chicken prices show that consumer income is the most impor. tant factor affecting chicken prices in the long run. High incomes usually are associated with relatively high poultry prices. The population of the United States is now about 156,· 000,000 and is increasing by over 2,700,000 per year, which will provide a larger and larger potential market for broiler meat. In view of the growing industrialization of the South· west, population centers in the Eleventh Federal Reserve Dis· trict may obtain more than a proportionate share of this growth, Per capita consumption of chicken meat in the Un ited States this year is expected to total about 31 poundsabout one· half of which will be broilers and one.half, farm chickens. This compares with about 18 pounds in 1935·39, of which only 8 percent was broilers. This rise in per capita consumption of chicken meatespecially broilers-has been influenced by such factors as the growing popularity of broilers because of the improved quality of the meat, relatively lower retail prices of broilers and chi ckens compared with prices of most other meats, and the availability of chicken meat 365 days in the year rather than only in certain seasons, as was true some years ago, 84 MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW As the production of eggs per hen continues to increase, there will be relatively fewer hens in the laying flocks and less chicken meat from Lhis source, relative to demand, to compete with broilers. Furthermore, many farmers are taking less interest in maintaining a small poultry flock to produce meat for home use or for sale and are joining the growing group of chicken meat buyers. For these reasons, the so·called "gap" between the production of farm chickens and the de· mand for chicken meat is growin g. It will take more and more broilers to fill this gap. Improved processing methods, more attractive packaging, and a higher quality product have increased materially the year.round demand for broilers. Moreover, several promo· tional developments in recent years undoubtedly have con· tributed to the increase in consumption of chicken meat. One development has been the "chicken restaurant," where chicken dinners are a specialty. Another development has been the packaging of frozen chicken so that housewives may purchase not only whole chickens ready to fry but also any part of the bird, such as drumsticks, breasts, and livers. Another favorable aspect of the outlook is the increasing efficiency being achieved in the production of broilers. The great advances made in recent years in increasing the output of chicken meat per ton of feed, which largely account for the price advantage broilers have over red meats today, have placed the broiler far ahead of the cow, hog, or sheep as a converter of grain to meat. Feed efficiency of these animals is about 1 pound of meat for each 5 or 6 pounds of grain, compared with 1 pound of meat for each 2.5 to 3 pounds of grain for broilers. While improvements are bein g made in the feed efficiency of other animals--especially hogs-the broiler is likely to hold an advantage for the foreseeable future. As a result, broilers may continue to undersell grain· fed animals on a weight basis. This relativel y favorable long·run outlook, however, does not seem LO justify a rapid expansion of broiler production except in areas which have a competitive advantage because of location, markets, or other factors. The relative stability of broiler prices during the past 4 years, with no definite upward trend evident despite some further increases in other farm commodity prices, suggests that the advantage of a steadil y rising price is not likely to prevail in the broiler business during the next few years. A slQwdown in the rate of expansion during the past year, plus the fact that some decline has occurred in certain older producing areas, lends support to the view that the industry is approaching the point where production is about equal to demand at a price equal to the cost of production (including reasonable profit) under current economic conditions. Per capita consumption of poultry meat has increased to the point where further increases may be more moderate and gradual, especially in view of the prospects for an increase in the supply of beef during the next 5 or 6 years as a result of greatly expanded beef cattle numbers. On balance, the lon g-run outlook for commercial broiler production in the Eleventh Federal Reserve District is generally favorable for some further expansion but not at the rapid rate experienced during the past decade. There will be • opportunities for profits for the efficient producer, hatchery. ~ man, processor, and others in the industry, although profit margins probably will be somewhat narrower than in most rccent years. Under such conditions, the "speculative" or "in· and·out" operation is likely to be particularly hazardous. MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 85 REVIEW O F BUSINESS, IN DUSTRIAL, A G RICULTURAL, AND FINANCIAL CONDITIONS Rains during April and Ma y improved greatly the outlook for agricultural produc:ion and farm income in the Eleventh District i n 1952 ; however, wet soils caused delay in field work. The winter wheat crop in the District has shown improvement since rains fell in the High Plains, but the crop remains far below average. Planting of cotton, sorghums, corn, and other crops is heing rushed to completion in the earlier sections and is active on the High Plains. Pastures are supplying excellent grazing in the eastern two·thirds of the District, and livestock in these areas are in good condition. Farm prices are still reflecting some weakness in market demand. Department store sales in the District in April were 9 percent over March and 13 percent above April last year; sales in the first 2 weeks of May showed a gain of over 20 percent as comparcd with the corresponding weeks of 1951. Cumulative sales [or the first 4 months of 1952 gained slightly over the corresponding period last year. Sales in April were more normally distributed between the various major departments than in preceding months. Inventories at department stores at the end of April were lower than a year earlier, while orders outstanding were up slightly. Furniture store sales in April showed an increase over a year ago, although inventories droppcd 21 percent. Construction contract awards in the District in April fell 6 percent below March and were below April 1951 by the same percentage; a substantial decline in residential awards from a year ago more than offset a year-to-year increase in nonresidential awards. Largely because of the strike in the oil industry, crude oil stocks in the Nation rose by May 10 to the highest level in 13 years_ The near-record production of crude oil in the District in April was 2 percent below the March level. Allowables for district states were cut for May, but the strike caused an even greater reduction in crude output for the month. During the 4 weeks ended May 21, practically all major categories of assets and liabilities of the weekly reporting member banks in the District declined. Commercial, industrial, and agricultural loans were reduced 2 percent. Investments declined, reflecting principally a decrease in holdings of Treasury bills. Total deposits declined about 1 percent; an increase in demand deposits of individuals, partnerships, and corporations was more than offset by reductions in other types of demand deposits; time deposits increased. The total dollar volume of department store sales in the El eventh Federal Reserve District during April, aided by heavy Easter buying and one more busi• ness day than in April last year, rose 9 percent above March , and was 13 percent higher than April 1951. As a result, cumulative sales for the year, which to the end of March had been laggin g, rose in April to approximately 1 percent above the first 4 months of a year ago_ An analysis of April sales reveals a somewhat better distribution among various departments than had been experienced during preceding months. This year, prior to April, the distribution of sales had shown weaknesses compared with last year in such important items as piece goods and household textiles, men's clothing, furniture and bedding, and, for the first 2 months, women's and misses' coats and suits. During April, sales of coats and suits were up 27 percent from last year, and men's clothing showed an increase of 16 percent_ Sales of furniture and bedding and domestic floor coverings were under year-ago totals but showed increased activity during the latter part of the month. Consumer buying of piece goods and textiles remained under a year ago. RETAIL TRADE STATISTICS (Percentage chonge) STOCKS' HET SALES April 1952 from line of trade by area tt5i~ Morch 1952 DEPARTMENT STORES Totol Eleventh District ••••••••••••• Corpus Christi ••••••••••••••••• • • Oollos . . • • ••• •• ••••••.••••. . •.• EI Paso •• . ••••••••••••••••••. . • Fo(' Worth ••••••• . •••. . ..•• . •.• 13 35 11 14 Houston ••••••••• • •••• •• •••••••• 15 17 San Antonio •••••. .. .•••..•••..• Shreveport, La •.•••••••• • •••••••• Waco •....•• . ••••••••••••••••• Other cities ••••••••••.•.••... • •• 18 35 8 4 FURHITURE STORES Total Eleventh District •••. . •••• • •• • 7 Austin •• ••••• • .• . ...• . . . .•••• • • 29 28 36 Datras •... • •.•. •• •••• • . •• ••• . • • Houston • •••••. ...... _ . .. .•. . ..• Pori Arthur • .•• . •....••••.•• ... • San Antonio . •• •. ..•••.•••.. . ••• Shreveport, L ... . , ..•• , ..•.• . .•. a Wichita Falls .................... APPLIANCE STORES HOUSEHOLD Total Eleventh District •••.••••••••• Dollos •••••• • . •••.•••••••••••.• 9 11 3 26 17 9 2 12 16 11 April 1952 from 4 mo. 1952 compo with -4 mo. 1951 1 17 -3 1 -2 5 1 7 15 -6 April 1951 MQreh 1952 -12 -10 -2 -3 -1 2 -14 -16 -9 -12 -12 -3 2 -9 , -3 -3 -9 4 -3 1 -2 1 2 -10 5 3 -3' 3 -27 - I - I 15 -2 12 3 7 - 4 4 -2 -13 3 -9 -6 _u -22 -20 I 3 1 Stocks at end of month. I Indicates cnange of less than one-naif of 1 percent. Department store inventories in the District were lower at the end of April than at the same time last year, even in the major departmental groups which showed declines in sales volume. Stocks of piece goods and household textiles, furniture and bedding, domestic floor coverings, and major household appliances were down from a year ago, with declines ranging between 21 and 40 percent. This absorp· tion of inventories by consumers is a most welcome sign to both wholesalers and manufacturers. Orders outstanding at the reporting department stores at the end of April were approximately 1 percent higher than a year earlier bnt were nearly 22 percent lower than at the end of March 1952. Sales reported by furniture stores in the District durin g April showed a year-to-year increase of approximately 7 percent and were fractionally above the previons month's total. This was the third consecutive month in which sales were above the level in the corresponding month of 1951. Inventories were not significantly different from a month earlier, although they were 21 percent below April 1951. MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 86 WHOLESALE TRADE STATISTICS Eleventh Federal Reserve District (Percentage change) STOCKSL p NET SAlESp April 1952 from April March April 1952 from "mo.1952 compo witt. .4 mo. 19S1 April March 1951 1952 -27 100 -39 3 -5 8 -16 10 2 1 19 12 -2 - I I -9 7 -3 -10 7 lin. of trode 1951 Automotive supplies • • . .••••• Dry goods •.••...•.•.••••.• Grocery (full·llne wholesalers nof sponsoring groups) ••••• -17 9 6 -8 17 -1 38 21 13 -9 7 - I 8 13 -19 7 -2 -11 12 -4 Hardware ••.....••••••••. • Industrial supplies •• .••.. • ••. Metals ................ . ... Tobacco products •.......... Wines and liquors •.•• .....• Wiring supplies, construction mot.rials distributors . . .... I 1952 14 -14 Stocks at end of month. p-Prelimmory. , Indica t.s chonge of Ie" thon one-holf of 1 percent. Field work in the District made good progress during the first part of May, following the late April rains, but was ~ interrupted again past midmonth as two cold fronts from the Northwest brought rain to virtually all dryland farming areas. Where soil moisture conditions permitted, farmers in southern sections cultivated cotton and grain sorghums, baled prairie hay, and planted rice during May. In northern sections they planted and replanted cotton, sorghums, and corn and: cultivated growing crops. Soil moisture supplies over the District are now adequate for germination and growth of summer crops, although additional rain is needed to replenish complete! y subsoil moisture reserves which are necessary for full maturity of crops this summer. SOURCEI United Stat•• Sureau of the Census. WINTER WHEAT PRODUCTION Sales at weekly reporting department stores in the first 2 weeks of May reflect the usual seasonal changes in consumer buying, as well as the influence of Mother's Day and the effect of the suspension of consumer credit controls under Regulation W. Sales d·uring the week ended May 10 were 22 percent above the comparable week in May last year and were the highest on record for any week that early in the year. Sales for the week ended May 17 were 17 percent above the same week last year. INDEXES OF DEPARTMENT STORE SALES AND STOCKS (19'7-'9~1001 ADJUSTEDl UNADJUSTED April Area March Feb. April April March Feb. April 1952 1952 1952 1951 1952 1952 1952 1951 SALES-Da ily onroge Dallas .. . ... ... ... . ....... Houston ••••••••••••• . ••• . • 11' 106 126 105 102 116 93 94 100 114 109 128 115 108 129 115 111 128 105 112r STOCKS-End of month EI ..... nth District • •••.••••••• 129 131 120 146 122 124 122 138 Eleventh District . •••••.•.••• 10Sr 99 110r 119r Adjusted for seasonal variation. r Revised. (In thousands of bushels) Average State 1941-50 N ew MeAico • ••••.•...• .• ••• • •••• • • Olclahoma ..•.•...•... . • . . ..• .. ..• . TeAas .••.••..•... •.. .. .....•. • ..• . 571 3,800 71,737 60,347 To'a l .•... . ... . ........•..• • 136,455 Arizona •••••••••.•.• .. ••.•••.•.•• • Indicated 1951 572 786 1952 575 1,099 38,902 17.307 78,502 38,071 57,567 118,247 SOURCE: Uni'ed States Department of Agriculture. The district winter wheat crop has shown improvement during the past 2 months, favored by timely rains in late April and early May. Production forecasts have been raised to higher levels, although they are still far below the average production of recent years. The Texas crop estimate is placed at about 38,000,000 bushels, which is more than double last year's short crop and compares with a 1941-50 average annual production of over 60,000,000 bushels. Yield per acre is estimated at 11 bushels, compared with 9 bushels per barvested acre last year. 1 It is too early to appraise the effect which suspension of government control of consumer credit has had on general business activity. One effect was the consummation of sales and immediate delivery of merchandise on which consumers had been accumulating down payments-either with the merchant or privately. Moreover, many who were being held back because of down payment or credit terms entered the market. To what extent new demand will be created by the absence of credit restrictions remains to be revealed, as most merchants are reluctant to abandon down payments entirely or to lengthen unduly the payout period. A number of factors favor a moderate pickup in consumer buying in the second half of 1952. Total employment continues at a near·record level, while personal income in March was at the annual rate of $258,000,000,000 for the third consecutive month. A general gain in consumer income in 1952--even after taxes-has been forecast by government agencies. It is estimated that consumers, business, and Government may spend 5 percent more this year than in 1951. Farmers will spend less in 1952, as their net income may decline 3 to 5 percent from last year. Oklahoma farmers expect to harvest a winter wheat crop of about 78,500,000 bushels, which is double last year's crop and 10 percent above average. An average·sized crop of 575,000 bushels is forecast for Arizona, while the New Mexico crop forecast is placed at 1,099,000 bushels, or less than one· third of average. The United States crop is about one-fourth above average. The cotton crop in Louisiana and central Texas has made good pTOgress, and cotton planting extended into northwest Texas by mid·May. The rainfall received during the month offered encouragement to west Texas farmers to plant a large acreage of cotton, although the possibility of a labor shortage at harvest time remained a factor in farmers' plans. Corn planting was under way in northwestern counties of Texas in May, while the crop in central and eastern parts of the State and in northern Louisiana made good progress, aided by favorable weather and generally adequate moisture. Land preparation and planting of sorghums was rushed on . the High Plains during May; planting neared completion . in central, eastern, and southeastern counties of Texas. Harvesting of hay was in progress over the District in May, as farmers gathered in oats, hubam clover, prairie hay, and « MONTIILY BUSINESS REVIEW 87 alfalfa. Peanut planting was started in the northern com- FARM COMMODITY PRICES ~ mcrcial area of Texas. Top Pri'.1 Paid in Conditions in most commercial vegetable areas of the District in late May were favorabl e, although water supply in the Lower Va lley has been low. The east Texas tomato crop ha s made gradual improvement, and some of the earliest plantings were beginning to hold a good set by mid month. Early spring tomato production in the Lower Valley is estimated at 1,638,000 bushels, which is far below average but larger than last year's short crop. Latc sprin g productionmostly in East Texas- is estimated at 1,625,000 bushels, a relatively small crop. Cantaloupes and watermelons in some of the latcr areas made good growth during May; harvest of. watermelons was started in southern sections in the fi rst part of the month. Texas watermelon acreage for harvest this summer is estimated at 64,000 acres, or 3,000 acres more than were harvested Iast year. The early spring onion crop in Texas-produced in counties south of San Antonio- is estimated at 3,802,000 sacks, almost doublc last year's crop but slightly below averagc. Late spring on ions in north Texas were benefited greatly by May rains, and a good crop is being harvested. The crop is forecast at 890,000 sacks, compared with a large crop of 1,280,000 sacks in 1951. Comparable Comparable Class Co"i ••••• •.•••. Calves ••••....•. Hogs ••••••••••• Sheep ..••....•. Unit Moy22,1952 COnON, Middling 15/ 16-inch, DQllol. ••• WHEAT, No. I hard, Fort Worth •• •• ••• ••• OATS. No.2 white, Fort Worth ••••••••••• CORN, No.2 yellow, Fort Worth ••••••••• SORGHUMS, No.2 yellow milo, Fort Worth. HOGS, Choice. Fort Worth ••.•••...•...• SLAUGHTER STEERS, Choke, Fori Worth ••• SLAUGHTER CALVES, Choice, Fort Worth ... STOCKER STEERS, Choice, Fori Worth ••..• SLAU GHTER LAMBS. Choice, Fort Worlh •• • HENS, 3-4 pounds, Fort Worth •••••••.•.• FRYERS, Commercial, Fort Worth •••••••••• BROILERS, South Texos . ... .. ... .... ... .. EGGS, Current rllceipls, Fort Worth ••••••• TURKEYS, No.1 hens, Fort Worth •. • •••••• lb. b,. b,. b,. cwl. SAN ANTONIO MARKET tf5~ March April 1951 1952 1952 Ap ril 1951 March 33 ,7 19 10,609 83.435 66,120 36. 152 9,499 71,029 58,988 27,484 9,358 93,792 43,459 18,155 9,013 5,371 120.097 20,955 15,232 7,203 lJ 6,8U 20,882 13.706 1952 5,250 1J0,431 .3860 2.68V2 1.06~ 2.19 3.32 22.00 35.00 35.00 35.00 29.00 .19 .29 .28 10.50 .28 cwl. cwl. cwt. cwt. lb. lb. lb. casil lb. week lost montn .4095 274;4 1.13\4 2.12!!.. 3.20 17.75 36.00 34,50 35.00 29.00 week last year $ .4477 2.60V2 1.14 1.98 2.65 21.50 37.00 37.00 38.00 34.00 .23 .27 .26 10.50 Farm prices In the District continue somewhat weak as compared with most months of the past year. Declines occurred during May in the prices of such commodities as cotton, wheat, oats, and barley. Price increases were noted for wool and hogs. Broiler prices fell sharply in late April and early May but recovered by May 15. Farm commodity prices in the District in May averaged some 10 percent beIowa year earlier. CASH RECEIPTS FROM FARM MARKETINGS (In thousand, of dollors) State April $ <wI. January {Number} Markets Week ended Commodity and market LIVESTOCK RECEIPTS FORT WORTH MARKET local ~Sovthw.st 195 1 Arizona ..... . ... $ 28,842 LOi.Ihiona ••••.•.• 31.201 13,195 New Mexico •.••• 40,884 Oklahoma •••.•. • Tex.as •••••. . •.• 160,627 Totol . . ... . .•• $274,789 1952 February 1951 1952 Cumula li"e recei pls Janua ry-Feb ruary 1951 1952 $ 55,895 $ 22,560 $ 32,447 $ 51,402 34,299 15,01 5 13,701 46.256 19,197 9,571 12,512 22,766 42,899 30,536 36,241 71,420 174,375 79,588 86,173 240,215 $ 88,342 48,000 31,709 79,140 260,548 $326,665 $507,739 $157,270 $181,074 5432,059 SOURCE: United States Deportment of Agriculture. I Inc:ludes goah. Pasturcs arc su pplying excellent feed for livestock in all areas of the District except in some parts of west Texas and in ew Mexico where rainfall prior to mid -Ma y was rather limited. In these areas, many pastures are bare and livestock are thin. However, improvement in many of these areas is expecled as a resulL of May rains. Livestock in Louisiana and the eastern half of Texas are in good condition. Livcstock receipts at the Fort Worth market are running at levels quite different from a yea r ago, due mostly to difference in timing of usually sharp seasonal changes. In the 4 weeks ended May 17, receipts of cattle and calves were up 38 percent and 47 percent, respectively, as compa red wilh the corrcsponding weeks of 1951. Marketings of sheep and lambs wcre down 30 percent because of late movement of spring lambs. Receipts of hogs showed a gain of 5 percent. Meat production in commercial slaughter plants in Texas t in the first quarter of 1952 was 15 percent above a year earl ier. Milk production in the State in April was up seasonally from March but at about the same level as a year ago. Egg production from January through April was up 10 percent as compared with thc first 4 months of last year. Farm income pro spec Is in the District for 1952 appear more favorable than a month ago, due principally to the greatly improved moisture situation which has favored production of livestock as well as crops. In the first 2 months of the year, cash receipts from farm marketings in the five states of the District were up 17 percenl as compared with the same months in 1951. Over-all, the prospects for cash farm income in the District this year are better than a year ago, although costs of production will again be high, and net farm income may be liltlc, if any, higher than in 1951. 011 April 29 the Secretary of the Treasu ry announ ced a number of changes in United States savings bonds, effeclive May 1. The redemption schedule of Series E bonds was Tevi sed so as to give a higher rate of return in the earlier years of the life of the bond if redeemed before maturity; the over·all rate of interest to maturity was raised from 2.9 percent to 3.0 percent, compounded semiannually, by shor tening the life of the bond from 10 years to 9 years 8 months; lhe interest ratc ,luring the extension period after maturity was raised for all honds maturing on or after May 1, 1952, from 2.9 percent to 3.0 88 MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW percent, compounded semiannually ; and the annual limit on purchases was raised from $10,000 to $20,000 maturity value. A new current income savings bond to be designated Series H will be offered beginning June 1. The new bond, a companion to Series E bonds, will have in terest paid by check semiannually on II graduated scale of rates which will be approximately the same as intermediate yields on Series E bonds ; the over·all yield to maturity (9 years 8 months) will be 3 percent; the bonds will be issued at par and will be redeemable at par after 6 months and on 1 month's notice; and the bonds will be offered with a minimum denomination of $500 and an annual purchase limit of $20,000. Sales of Series F and Series G bonds were withdrawn, effective May 1, and two new series of savings bonds, desig. nated Series J and Series K, were substituted for them. The new series differ from the old principally in their higher rate schedules. The new bonds yield 2.76 percent if held 12 years to maturity, and intermediate yields are higher than those obtainable from the superseded Series F and Series G bonds. Purchases of Series J and Series K bonds, combined, may not exceed $200,000 per year (issue price), as compared with the limit of $100,000 for Series F and Series G. On April 30 the Secretary of the Treasury announced an additional step in the Treasury's program to raise funds required in financing the defense program. In accordance with this announcement, beginning on May 19 investors were offered additional amounts of the 2%,-percent Treasury bonds, Investment Series B-1975·80, which were issued originally April 1, 1951. Subscriptions to the 2%,-percent bonds are payable in full in cash, or not less than one-fourth in cash and the remainder by exchange, par for par, of the restricted 2lh-percent bonds of 1965-70, 1966·71, Jun e 15, 1967-72, and December 15, 1967-72. Payment for the new bonds may be made in full on June 4, 1952, or in four equal instalments on June 4, August 1, October 1, and December 1, 1952, with acceleration of payments if desired by subscribers. Commercial banks were excluded from the offering, except to the extent that they were permitted to exchange restricted bond's acquired prior to December 31, 1945, for the partial investment of their savings accounts. Commercial bank subscriptions were required to be 75 percent in bonds eligible for exchange and 25 percent in cash. The new bonds are nontransferable but may be exchanged, at the owner's option, for Ph·percent 5-year marketable Treasury notes to be dated April 1 and October 1 of each year during the life of the bond. Restricted bonds eligible for exchange are outstanding in the amount of $14,748, 000,000. Following the announcement of the new offering, prices of the four restricted bonds eligible for exchange rose from 16/32 to 23/32 by May 9. Subsequently, closing bid prices receded somewhat, however, so that by May 15 increases over the prices prevailing on April 30 ranged from 9/32 to 13/32. Other price changes between April 30 and May 9 included an increase of 19/32 for the 2%-percent bonds of 1962-67 which became eligible for commercial bank ownership May 5, followed by a decrease of 11/32 by midmonth. f On May 15 the Secretary of the Treasury announced that the option to call the 2-percent bonds of 1951·53 for redemption on September 15 would not be exercised. These bonds are dated September 15, 1943, and are outstanding in the amount of $7,986,000,000. Each of the weekly offerings of Treasury bills dated May 1, May 15, May 22, and May 29 was increased approximately $200,000,000 in excess of the amount of the bills maturing on those dates, for the purpose of meeting current Treasury disbursements and to increase the General Fund balance. The Treasury borrowed approximately $600,000,000 in April through similar weekly offerings. The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System announced on May 5 that it had concurred unanimously in the recommendation of the National Voluntary Credit Re· straint Committee that the screen ing of applications for financing, in accordance with the principles established by the Voluntary Credit Restraint Program, be suspended in the light of the prevailiog circumstances. The Board also announced that the Voluntary Credit Restraint organization will continue on a stand· by basis so that the voluntary pro· gram may be reinstated should subsequent developments require. In connection with this announcement, the Board withdrew its request previously made of all financing insti· tutions to act in accordance with the provisions of the voluntary program. Regulation W, governing the terms of the extension of consumer instalment credit, was suspended by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System May 7. Upon ann ouncing this action, the Board indicated that it had recommended to Congress that authority for the regulation of consumer credit be continued after June 30 so that the regulation could be reinstated should subsequent develop. ments necessitate such action. Between April 23 and May 21, practically all major categories of assets and liabilities of the weekly reporting member banks in the District declined. The net effect of reduc· tions in loans, investments, and cash assets was to decrease the total resources of these banks in the amount of $33,508,000, or about 1 percent, to a total of $4,204,789,000. At this lower level, however, total assets were 10 percent above the comparable total last year. The reduction in commercial, industrial, and agricultural loans during the 4 weeks amounted to $25,979,000, or 2 percent, the largest reduction in any 4- or 5·week reporting period this year. Most major types of business borrowers reduced their outstanding bank indebtedness, but the principal factor contributing to the decrease in commercial, industrial, and agricultural loans was the repayment of loans by . cotton and other commodity dealers. Loans for financing . security transactions and "all other" loans, the category which iocludes consumer·type loans, showed increases during the 4 weeks. f MONTIILY BUSINESS REVIEW CONDITION STATISTICS Of WEEKLY REPORTING MEMBER BANKS IN LEADING CITI ES Eleventh Federal Reserve District (In thousands of dollars) May 21, 1951 1952 $2.877.078 1,53 1,258 Total loons (gron) and investmenl~ •. .. • . .. Tofal loons-Net' .. . .. .......... . ... Total loons-Gross ................. . . Commerical, industrial, (lnd agricultural May 23, 1952 Item $2,633,593 1,466,4 78 1,482,663 ',559,620 BANK DEBITS, END-O f -MONTH DEPOSITS, 1,00 3,763 9,393 1,071,565 AND ANNUAL RATE Of TURNOVER Of DEPOSITS 60,488 115,062 11.325 306,854 55 .1 70 121 ,968 19,009 273,360 58,966 116,301 8,525 296,503 1,329,382 1,150,930 60,546 1,343,301 224,034 161 ,693 175,452 1,547,696 loons •....•. . ..•....•.•.••••..... . , ,045,586 loons 10 brokers and dealers in securities.. Other loans for purchasing or carrying securities ..... ... .. .... . ... .. . . .... Reol eslate loo ns .. ......... . ... .. .... loans to bonks . . . .......... . .... . .... All other loans •• •• • .•.•.•.. . . 8.381 Tota l investmenh .. ........ ....... . ..... U. S. Treasury bills ............... . .... U. S. Treasury c;ertific;o'es of indebtedness. U. S. Treasury notes ................... U. S. Govemment bonds (inc;. gtd. obligations) ............ . .... . .. .. . . Other securities ...... ................. Reserves with Federal Reserve 8ank . . ...... . . 8alances with domestic banks . .............. Demand deposits-adiusted t • . • • . • . . . . • . • . . • Time deposits except Government ........... . United States Government deposits .... ....... Interbank demond depruih . ... . ............ Borrowings from Fede ral Reserve Bank .... .... 195,213 169,959 177,363 613,488 173,359 570,871 389,006 2,348, 558 463,861 91,862 705,023 10,250 0 342,541 581,363 166,480 492,306 368,933 2,184,712 427,459 100,066 594,586 0 7,760 614,453 167,669 524,130 373,836 2,275,613 460,795 100,937 728,056 20,250 1 After deductions for reser"'e! and unallocated chorge-ofh_ , Includes all demand de posits other than inte rbank and United Siales Govemment, leu cash items re ported a s on hand or in process of collection. Investments of these banks declined $13,919,000, with the contraction in holdings of Treasury bills more than accounting for the change. The increase in holdings of Treasury notes and certificates of indebtedness was offset only slightly ~ by a small reduction in holdings of Treasury bonds_ Invest, ments in municipal and other non-Government securities rose. t of $62,007,000, or about 1 percent, from the total for March and an increase of $543,118,000, or 9 percent, over the comparable total for last year. Country banks accounted for almost 60 percent of the reduction during April. In contrast with the contraction in demand deposits, time deposits rose $14,326,000, or 2 percent, with most of the increase occurring at the reserve city banks. $2,902,921 1,543,299 Ap ril 23, 89 (Amounh in thousQnds of dollarsl DEBITSI City ARIZONA TucsOCl ............ . .$ April 1952 Gross demand deposits of all member banks in the District averaged $6,451,803,000 in April, which reRects a decrease GROSS DEMAN D AND TIME DEPOSITS OF M EM BER BANKS Eleventh federa l Reserve District {A ... erClges of daily Agur es. In thousands of dollarsl COMBINED TOTAL Date Groll demand Time RESERVE CITY BANKS Gross demClnd Time COUNTRY BANKS Gross demand Time APril 1950 ..... . $5,521.595 $656.387 $2,634,090 $410,645 $2,8B7,505 $245,742 April 1951 ..... . 5,908,685 647,902 2,751.029 353,798 3,157,656 294, I 04 December 1951._ 6,753,139 706,327 3, 170,047 390,143 3,5B3,092 316,184 January 1952 .... 6,779,455 714,332 3,162 ,301 391,577 3.617,154 322,755 FebrlJClry 1952 . . _ 6,567,846 721,578 3.030.813 395,992 3,537,033 325.586 March 1952 ... . . 6,513,810 719,844 3.046,289 392,193 3,467,521 327,651 April 1952 . . ... . 6,451,803 734,1 70 3.021,143 401,280 3,430,660 332,890 April March 1951 1952 Annual rate of turnover April 30, 1952 April 1952 April March 1951 1952 94,811 12 -4 $ 107,029 10,7 10.7 11.0 Monroe ... _... _..... 46,542 Shreveport .... . . .... 189,091 NEW MEXICO Roswell ........ ...• . 2 1,898 TEXAS Abilene ............ . 51,794 Amarillo ............ 13B,050 Austin ............. . 173,569 Beaumont ... _ ..... . . 128,406 Corpus Christi. ..... .. 134,088 Corsicona .. .. ... . ... 12,772 Dallas ............. . 1,423,414 EI Paso . ..... ....... 179,425 Fort Worth .. . . ...... 484,591 Galveston . . ........ . 84,093 Houston .. . ......... . 1,593,841 laredo ............ . 23,250 lubbock . ........... 107,329 Pori Arthur . ......... 42,879 San Angelo .... .. .... 39,155 San Antonia ... ...... 370,059 Te;l;arkona S••••••••• • 20,999 Tyler .............. . 51,479 Waco .............. 71,397 Wichita Falls .•.... ... 88,942 6 18 -8 -I 47,487 201,701 11.5 11.3 11.5 10.4 12.4 11.5 -4 -4 LOUISIANA TOlo l-2 4 cilies ........ $5,571,874 On May 21, total deposits of the weekly reporting member banks amounted to $3,873,371,000, reflecting a decrease of $26,345,000, or about 1 percent, during the 4 weeks. Although demand deposits of individuals, partnerships, and corporations rose, the expansion in these accounts was more than offset by the reduction in other types of demand deposits. In contrast with the trend of demand deposits, time deposits increased, principally as a result of the expansion in time deposits of individuals and businesses. The contraction in deposits at the weekly reporting member banks this year (to May 21) is notably less than the decrease last year - somewhat more than 6 percent as compared with slightly more than 8 percent. DEPOSITS2 Percentage change from 26,118 10.0 11.2 10.0 2 -5 55,496 10 -7 116,017 19 21 119,520 14 - 3 98,645 105,032 19 - 5 9 2 21,697 994,897 -3 -4 143,485 4 -13 -4 391,345 II 101,866 -4 4 20 -4 1,1 55,003 24,751 12 7 97,677 21 -2 45,471 II -I 50,122 -2 -3 379,880 6 -3 25,195 23 -3 53,886 8 -7 85,391 3 5 105,483 25 7 11.3 14.3 17.9 15.4 15.2 7.0 17.2 14.9 14.8 9.8 16.4 11.6 12.8 11.4 9.4 11.6 10.1 11.4 9.8 10.2 12.5 15.5 15.4 15.1 14.6 6.6 19.7 15.8 15.1 10.3 14.9 11.9 11.2 11.5 9.8 11.5 8.4 11.3 10.6 9.1 12.0 15.7 15.7 15.7 16.2 6.7 17.4 16.7 15.6 9.5 17.3 I 1.4 12.8 11.6 9.5 11.9 10.7 12.2 9.2 9.6 -3 $4,553,194 14.6 14.6 15.1 9 Debits to deposit accounts e;l;cept Interbank accounts. Demand and time deposits, including certified and officers' checks outstanding but ex· c1uding deposits to the credit of bClnks. 3 These figures include only one bank In TexarkClna, Te;l;as. Tota l debits for all banks in re;l;arkana, Texas-Arkansas, including two banks locClted In the Eighth District, amounled to $39,380,000 for the month of April 1952. I I Debits to deposit accounts reported by banks in 24 cities of the District were 3 percent lower in April than in March but 9 percent above the total for April 1951. The contraction of debits during April was general over the District, as most cities showed decreases. The turnover of deposits, reflecting the annual rate of use of deposit accounts, was 14.6 in April (the same as for April 1951), as compared with 15.1 in March. On January 31, 1952, demand deposits credited to personal accounts (as contrasted with business accounts) at banks in the Eleventh Federal Reserve District amounted to an estimated $3,053,000,000, or approximately 52 percent of total demand deposits of individuals, partner~hips, and corJlorations held by these banks. On January 31, 1948, demand deposits credited to personal accounts constituted 56 percen t of the total. Although personal demand deposits rose $473,000,000, or about 18 percent, between January 31, 1948, and January 31, 1952, the proportion of demand deposits of individuals, partnerships, and corporations held in personal accounts declined in each of the 4 years, During the 4-year period, demand deposits owned by farmers rose almost 32 percent, as compared with an increase of 13 percent in other personal accounts. MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 90 CONDITION OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK Of DALLAS OWNERSHIP OF DEMAND DEPOSITS OF INDIVIDUALS, PARTNERSHIPS, AND CORPORATIONS' =====================(~ln='==~ d.=O=f=d=o==~=)===================== ~ ~ ~a="= 110 Banks in Eleventh Federal Reserve District May 15. {In millions of dollars} January 31 Type of hold.r 1952 1951 1950 1949 1948 Total manufacturing and mining 715 244 887 345 134 275 48 142 3.os3 978 2,075 5 $5,848 $ 623 231 805 303 120 247 35 118 2,932 939 1,993 5 $5,419 496 198 764 292 128 220 29 115 2,673 786 1,887 2 $4,917 $ .68 173 736 286 104 202 28 122 2,576 755 1,82 1 $ .37 158 716 275 94 192 27 121 2,580 7.3 1,837 $4,695 $4,600 Public: utilifiti ••••• ••••••••• Trade •••••••••••••••••••• Other nonflnancial •••••••••• Insurance •• • ••••••••••••••• All oth.r flnanclal. •.•• •••••• Trust funds of bonks •••.•••• • Nonprofit •••••••••• • •• •••• Per5Onol ••. •.•..•.•••• .• •• Farmers •• •••••..••.•.••• Oth.rs ..•.... •. .. .••.... Foreign •••• ••••••••••••• •• Total ••••• • . .••••••• a-Estimated. Demand deposits owned by businesses-proprietorships, partnerships, and corporations-rose at notably faster rates than those of personal deposits. For example, demand deposits of manufacturing and mining firms rose almost 64 percent during the 4 years, while public utilities, financial concerns (other than insurance companies), and insurance companies showed increases of 54.4 percent, 43.2 percent, and 42.6 percent, respectively. Trust funds of hanks rose almost 78 percent. Consequently, the proportion of total demand deposits of individuals, partnerships, and corporations credited to business accounts at banks in the District increased. Manufacturing and mining businesses owned 12.2 percent of total personal and business demand deposits on January 31, 1952, as compared with 9.5 percent on January 31, 1948. The proportion owned by public utilities rose from 3.4 percent to 4.2 percent. On the other hand , trade establishments accounted (or 15.2 percent of the total on January 31, 1952, as compared with 15.6 percent 4 years earlier, NEW MEMBER BANK The First National Bank of Rarville, Rarville, Louisiana, a newlr organized institution located in the territorr served br the head 0 fJice of the Fedeml Reserve Bank 0/ Dallas, opened lor business Mar 10, 1952, as a member of the Federal Reserve Srstem. The new bank has capital of $100,000, surplus of $50,000, and undivided profits of $50,000. The officers are: W. D. COllon, President; fohn C. Morris , Sr., Vice President; R. L. Walters, Vice President; O. C. Lrnch, fr., Cashier; F, L. Ellerbe, Assistant Cashier; and Eula Mae Fletcher, Assistant Cashier. NEW PAR BANK The Communitr State Bank, Waco, Texas, a newlr organized, insured, nOTlJTtember bank located in the territorr served br the head office of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, was added to the par list on its open ing daJe, Mar 14, 1952. The officers are: foe H. Craven, President; Rar mond Ford, Jr., Vice Presi· dent; and f. D. Hudson, fr., Cashier. April IS, May IS, 1952 Item 1951 Tofal gold certiReat. re'erve••••• ....•.... • . $ 678.790 5, 100 Discounts for member banks ••••...•.•..•..• Industrial advances ••••••....•... .• ....••.. 5 foreign loans on gold •••..•.•..•.• , • • .• ••• 38 1,022,840 U. S. Government securities •.••....•....•..• Tolal earning Quels •••.•••••••••••..••••.• 1,027,983 Member bank reserve deposits •• . •..•.•. ... 987,167 f ederal Reserve nol8. in actual circulation •...• 681,747 1952 $ 537,630 1,911 30 o 1,068,769 1,070.710 928.713 620.834 624,383 o 15 532 1,061,827 1,0 62,374 975,654 679,449 The value of construction contracts awarded in the District during April was about $140,000,000-6 percent be· low both the previous month and the corresponding month last year. Residential awards of $48,000,000 were one·third lower than a year earlier, while nonresidential awards of about $92,000,000 were up 19 percent. The value of residential and nonresidential award's in the United States increased 15 and 17 percent, respectively. VALUE OF CONSTRUCTION CONTRACTS AWARDED lin thousands of dol/a") Janua ry-A pril April 1952p Area and type March 1952. April 1951 ELEVENTH DISTRICT •• $ 139,834 $ 148,733 Residential . .•• . •. 48.089 71,397 All other, •.. . .• .. 91,745 77,336 UNITED ST ATESI, , •• 1,597,517 1,374,991 681,614 590,8.48 Rl!!sidl!!ntiol •••.•• • All othl!!r •••. , .••• 915,903 78<4.1A3 I 1952p 1951 149,531 55,981 93,550 1,321 ,254 592,717 728,537 455,499 172,582 282,917 4,706,068 2,008,490 2,697,578 $ 547,136 2..46,143 300.993 ",831,716 2,117,481 2,714,235 • 37 states east of the Rocky Mountains. ~OJRCI~~~~o~: Dodge Corporation. Within the District, nonresidential awards continue to represent an increasing proportion of total awards. This situation is due primarily to the industrial expansion of defense·related industries, although the lower level of residential construction activity accentuates this trend. Residential awards in the District in the first 4 months of 1952 accounted for only 9 percent of the United States tolal, com BUILDING PERMITS .4 months 1952 Percentage change In valuation from April 1952 City Nlln'lber Valuation Number Valuation April March 1951 1952 LOUISIANA 463 $ 2,081,763 Shreveport ••. • TEXAS Abilene •..... . 158 1,075,936 2,815,705 Amarillo •• ••. . 373 247 3,4 80,458 Austin ••.• . ••• 1,819,677 Beaumont ••• . . 232 Corpus Chritli. • 410 1,245,327 Dallas .• . . . •.• 2,150 9,265,032 290 EI Paso .. ••••. 889,1 06 Fort Worth •.•. 1,084 4,821,329 127 147,91 8 Galveston •.••• Houston, ••.••• 992 11,622,722 Lubbock .•••.. 258 l,90S,8S9 Port Arthur • . .. 192 379,514 Son Anlonio ... 1,356 3,964,032 Waco ••• ....• 334 1,654,9 31 1,007, 357 Wichita Falls ... 113 22 -52 1,400 $ 141 7 99 315 9 - 13 -27 31 - 12 18 93 1. -11 48 -51 2 31 11 358 -39 54 -54 -2 -44 57 48 76 562 1,576 1,067 989 1,508 7,317 1,295 3,804 465 3,808 1,143 658 5,383 1,415 602 Tafol ••••••••••• 8,779 $48,176,696 13 15 - I 59 -40 f Indicates change of ress than one·holf of 1 percent. Percentage change in valuation from .. months 1951 8,883,757 37 3,093,689 9,448,739 11,506,359 4,230,285 5,729,258 29,547,470 7,464,004 15,5 70,515 923,462 36,3 87,18' 5,956,035 14,768,789 6,180,931 12,157,944 - 8 5 12 67 - 44 - 30 13 -3 1 -36 -39 - 13 -22 -18 10 280 32,992 $172,876,650 -17 1,028,22~ ~ MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW pared with 12 percent a year earlier; nonresidential awards accounted for 10 percent, or about the same as a year ago. • Despite the strong showing of nonresidential awards, total awards in the District for the first 4 months of 1952 were 16 percent under the year· ago figure. The oil strike appears well along toward settlement, al. though it will continue to have repercussions on the industry for some time. The strike began on May 1 and involved a coalition of CIO, AFL, and independent unions demanrung originally a 25·cent hourly wage increase and: an increase in night·shift differentials. These demands were in excess of the amount wruch could be granted under the prevailing rules of the Wage Stabilization Board, and little progress was made in settling the strike until the WSB announced On May 14 that fifteen cents was the maximum amount it would approve as an hourly wage increase. At the height of the strike, more than one·third of the Nation's refinery capacity was shut down, some pipelines and bulk terminals were tied up, and crude oil production in some areas was curtailed sharply. Texas probably was affected more severely by the strike than any other state, with about 60 percent of the State's refinery capacity shut down, most of which was located on the Gulf Coast. The strike involved an estimated 90,000 workers in the Nation, with perhaps 25,000 of them in Texas, The strike came at a time when refined stocks, with the exception of aviation gasoline, were ample or at relatively • high levels in most areas of the country. Furthermore, the demand in May is usually lower than in most months of the year. While shortages of motor gasoline were reported in a few cities of the Nation, most areas had no appreciable diffi. culty. Commercial and military flights, however, were cur. tailed because of a tight supply situation in aviation gasoline, The area with the heaviest stock position when the strike began was the central portion of the Nation, which is also the area in which most of the struck refineries were located. On April 26, prior to the strike, aggregate stocks of the four maj or refined products in those sections of the country be· tween California and the Appalachian Mountains were over 16 percent higher than on the corresponding date of the previous year. In the Eleventh District, stocks of major refined products were almost 21 percent higher than a year earlier. East Coast stocks were up only 5 percent, while stocks in California were down 23 percent. Crude oil stocks in most areas of the Nation were also at a relatively high level when the strike began. While East Coast stocks of crude oil on April 26 were down a little more than 2 percent from a year earlier and crude stocks in California were up less than 1 percent, aggregate stocks of crude oil in other sections of the Nation were over 11 percent higher. Crude stocks in the Eleventh Federal Reserve District were up 10 percent from a year earlier, and total ~ational stocks were 9 percent higher. Moreover, crude oil stocks in the Nation rose noticeably during April. The April cut in Texas allowables, which had been made in recognition of the somewhat heavy crude stock situation, 91 resulted in a 2·percent reduction in crude oil production in the District for that month; but the daily average produc· tion of 3,185,000 barrels, although below February and March, was higher than any other month on record. Texas made a further cut in allowables for May, and reductions also were made in other states in the Southwest. The strike undoubtedly caused a more substantial cut in crude oil production in this District than was indicated by the May allowables. CRUDE Oil PRODUCTION (Barrels) April 1952 Area Total prodvttion ELEVENTH DISTRICT Texas R. R. Cam. Districts 1 Sovth Central..... .... 1,017,200 2 Middle Gulf........ . . 4,965,350 3 Upper Gulf .......... . 14,801,050 4 Lower Gulf . • • • • • • • • • • 8,000,800 5 East Central. • .• . . . . . . 1,840,700 6 Northeast .•••........ 11,910,450 East Texas......... 8,105,400 Other fle lds... •••.• 3,805,050 7b North Central . . • . • . . • • 2,682,100 7c Wed CentraL........ 4,188,650 8 West ................ 30,190,800 9 North....... ... .. . ... 4,845,800 10 Panhandle............ 2,482,700 Total Texas ••• . ••••• 86,925,600 New Mexico............ ... 4,815,700 North Louisiana ...•....... . , 3,816,600 Total Eleventh District ..... , 95,557,900 OUTSIDE ELEVENTH DISTRICT... 95,227,250 UNITED STATES .............. 190,785,150 Daily ovg. production 33.907 165,512 493.368 266,693 61,357 397.015 270.180 126,835 89.403 139.621 1,006,360 161,527 82.757 2,897,520 160,523 127,220 3,185,263 3,174,242 6,359,505 Increase or decrease in daily average production from April 1951 247 -351 -10,203 8,656 9,549 2,495 -8,520 11.015 5,733 40.206 69.388 10,910 -6,890 129,740 18,570 -2,005 146,305 74,479 220,764 March 1952 213 -4,554 -5.956 -5.757 -1,337 536 4.622 -4,086 755 -6.187 -32.114 -73 536 -53.938 754 -509 -53,693 4,'58 -49,035 SOURCE: Estimated fram American Petroleum Institute weekly reports. Crude oil stocks accumulated at a record rate, at least during the first part of the strike. On May 10 national stocks of crude oil were the highest in 13 years, and district stocks were the highest on record. National crude stocks on that date amounted to 276,897,000 barrels, or 5 percent higher than on April 26, prior to the strike, and 14 percent higher than a year earlier. Meanwhile, crude stocks in the District, at 144,455,000 barrels, showed increases of 7 percent and 19 percent for the same periods, respectively. The major proportion of the strike·induced increase was in Texas. A relatively full storage situation may have moderated the increase in crude stocks during the latter days of the strike. The precise effect of the strike on refined stocks is not known at the time of this writing, but they undoubtedly have been reduced noticeably. The sharp increase in crude oil stocks resulting from the strike, on top of an already relatively high stock position, may have the effect of curtailing crude oil production in the coming months until the excessive stocks are worked off. The Texas Railroad Commission announced a moderate cut in allowables for June, the third successive monthly reduc· tion. A sharp cut, sufficient to eliminate rapidly the excessive crude inventories, apparently is not practical. Some plants, particularly among the ones not shut down during the strike, are dependent for supplies of crude on current production; consequently, a sharp cut in the crude oil allowable might hamper their operations. Correction of the heavy crude stock situation must come gradually. On the other hand, since the strike undoubtedly has reduced refined stocks in some areas, refineries may increase somewhat their demand' for crude oil until deficiencies in refined inventories have been eliminated.