View original document

The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.

This publication was digitized and made available by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' Historical Library (FedHistory@dal.frb.org)

District Agriculture-

Production and Income
Climb to Record Levels
Agricultural production in states
of the Eleventh District rebounded
sharply last year from the setback
of the drouth in 1971, soaring to a
record level. The increase in total
output combined with higher average prices to drive gross farm income to an estimated new high of
more than $8 billion.
Larger wheat and grain sorghum
crops added to the increase in production, as did gains in most minor
crops. But the biggest boost came
fr~m cotton. Spurred by higher
P~lces at planting time and favored
WIth a good growing season, cotton
growers in these states increased
their output about 40 percent-the
largest crop since 1965.
Livestock production, on the
other hand, showed little growth as
Poor range conditions in 1971 and
the resulting reduction in cow
~erds dampened cattle production
In 1972. But with demand for fed
be~f growing rapidly, rising cattle
prIces contributed greatly to gross
farm income.

And to take full advantage of
higher prices, growers worked their
cotton more intensively. Closer
cultivation and improvements in
the weather contributed to greater
yields. In Texas, for example, improved yields accounted for fully
two-thirds of the increase in cotton
production. Lint yields in Texas
are estimated at 359 pounds per
acre, compared with 263 pounds in

Cotton leads crop gains in Southwest
PERCENT CHANGE,1972 FROM 1971

...........
.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:
...........
..

CORN

BUsiness Review I January 1973

W INTER WHEAT

........
................
................

...................
........

:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.: OATS

Crop production
The comeback in cotton was due
O~l~ partly to better growing conditIons. Also important to the turnaround was a change in market
C?nditions built up over the preVIOUS season. Growers ended their
1971 season with the smallest
carryover in 20 years. And with
consumers showing renewed interes.t in cotton goods, 1972 began
With cotton prices averaging 40
percent higher than a year before.
To meet the demand, farmers
~~rve.sted more cotton acreage. Of
h lstnct states, only New Mexico
A~fvested less acreage than in 1971.
four of the other states harVested more. Louisiana harvested
nearly a third more.

1971. With the increase in acreage,
improved yields left Texas growers
providing some 30 percent of the
nation's cotton crop. All told,
District states produced about 43
percent of the national total.
Of other major crops in the
District, only rice was off-and that
was very little. Production of winter wheat was up a fourth from the
drouth-stricken crop of 1971. And

BARLEY

.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:...
...........................
PEANUTS

COTTON

ALL CROPS

I

-40

I

-20

I

o

I

I

20

40

I

60

1972 indicated December 1
SOURCE: U.S. Department of A9riculture

1

production of grain sorghum rose
sharply as bumper crops more than
offset the slight cutback in acreage.
In Texas, the grain sorghum crop
was expected to about equal the
previous high of 343 million bushels reached in 1967.
Unlike the large sorghum grain
crop that was due entirely to
greater yields, the large wheat crop
was the result of increases in both
acreage and yields. The smaller
rice crop was due mainly to smaller
yields in Texas. Rice acreage in
Texas and Louisiana was about the
same as a year before.
Larger crops of oats, flaxseeds,
peanuts, potatoes, pecans, and soybeans added further to the gains in
crop production. Among minor
crops-which, together, make up
about a fifth of the crop production
in these states-only the corn and
barley harvests were smaller than
in 1971. And these declines were
merely the result of fewer acres
being planted.
As the year ended, a larger citrus
crop was being harvested. Gains in
Arizona were only slight. But the
Texas orange crop was 17 percent
larger than in 1971, and the grapefruit crop was 13 percent larger.
Together, these two states were expected to produce nearly 25 million
boxes of grapefruit and oranges11 percent more than in 1971.

portion of the nation's beef fed in
Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico,
and Arizona from around 20 percent early in the year to over 25
percent at the end of October. In
Texas and Arizona, the increase in
the number of head on feed averaged 20 percent a month. But with
more lightweight cattle being
placed in feedlots and, therefore,
taking longer to feed out, marketings out of feedlots were considerably less.
Poor range conditions in 1971
led to a reduction in cow herds,
especially in Texas and New Mexico. From 9.9 million head in early
1971, the beef cow herd for the
District states fell to 9.6 million

head in early 1972. By midyear,
however, the cow herd had grown
to an estimated 10 million head.
And by year-end, estimates of the
calf crop showed a slight gain over
1971.
Beef slaughter, high while herds
were being thinned in 1971, slowed
in the early part of 1972. Part of
the slowdown was due to a decline
in slaughter of calves, and part was
due to cattlemen holding back
heifers to rebuild and expand cow
herds. The slaughter had clearly
picked up by midyear, however,
and, with more animals beginning to come out of feedlots, had
reached a level by the end of the
third quarter about equal to a year

livestock production in region last year
slowed by low prices and drouth in 1971
PERCENT CHANGE, 1972 FROM 1971

BROILERS

CATTLE AND CALVES

Livestock production
Strengthened by demand for fed
beef, cattle prices continued to
spur growth of cattle feeding in the
Southwest. Feeding activity increased in Oklahoma, New Mexico,
and Arizona. But by far the greatest increase was in Texas.
By midyear, Texas had become
the nation's number-one cattle
feeding state. And with more than
2 million head on feed in the second
half of the year, Texas was far
enough ahead to hold a position
other states were not apt to overtake anytime soon.
The expansion in cattle feeding
continued all year, raising the pro2

MOHAIR

LAMBS

-40

I
-30

-20

-10

1972 partly estimated
SOURCES: U.S . Department of Agriculture
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

o

10

20

before. By then, the momentum
of the upturn was enough to carry
the total for the year slightly above
that for 1971.
Other areas of livestock production also showed effects of conditions in 1971. Pork production fell
~harply after the low prices prevailIng during 1971 and did not recover
until the latter part of 1972-although by then, the upturn was
strong enough to give indications of
continued expansion well into 1973.
Production of sheep and goats
had been trending downward for
Some years. But prices of lamb and
mutton, wool, and mohair were
low enough in 1971 to cause still
further contraction. As a result,
~ast year began with sheep flocks
In the Southwest 6 percent smaller
than at the start of 1971 and goat
herds 27 percent smaller. The reduced flocks and herds caused further drops in the production of
Wool and mohair, but prices imprOved. Production of lamb and
lUutton also slowed, ending the year
near the total for 1971.
. Broiler and egg production
PIcked up in 1972, but turkey production fell slightly. There was
aTIs? a reduction in dairy herds.
. ~s cutback, however, was about
In line with the increase in productivity and left milk production
about the same as in 1971.

months of 1971. Both livestock and
crop receipts contributed to this
growth. Livestock receipts for the
first ten months of the year were
over $3.8 billion-15 percent more
than for the same period a year
before. Crop receipts amounted to
nearly $1.9 billion-16 percent more
than in 1971.
Although most prices improved
last year, an abnormal dip occurred
on a broad front early in the year.
Prices of major livestock commodities and upland cotton turned
downward in February, in contrast
to their usual seasonal increases.
These declines were followed by
drops in prices of several other
crops, causing a downturn in aver-

Income and prices

35-

The record rise in gross farm in?ome in the Southwest drove net
InCome sharply upward-probably
to a new high well above the $2.2
billion of 1971. Several factors con~ributed to the advance. Increases
crop production were important.
ut hIgher prices (almost across
the board), an increase in GovernlUent payments, and a slower increase in production costs also
Contributed significantly.
The general strength of farm in~ome is borne out by cash receipts
~om marketings. Receipts through
ctober totaled $5.7 billion-15
Percent more than in the first ten

B

BUsiness Review I January 1973

age prices lasting into April. Toward the end of that month, however, prices of most commodities
began trending upward. And by
November, average prices received
by farmers and ranchers in Texas
had rallied to a level 14 percent
above a year before.
Several commodities experienced
unusual price movements in 1972.
Grain prices were sluggish in the
first half of the year, following the
record crop in 1971. But with the
unexpected surge in demand
brought on by the Soviet purchase
announcements in July, prices advanced rapidly. The unseasonable
price rise and expanded production
boosted grain crop receipts sub-

Demand for feeder cattle widens feeder-slaughter price gap
DOLLARS PER HUNDREDWEIGHT

THOUSAND HEAD

5o------------------------------------------~------ 3 , 600

CHOICE FEEDER STEER PRICES

45CHOICE SLAUGHTER
STEER PRICES

40-

- 3,000

f

- 2 ,400

30-

25

- - - r - 1,800

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Agriculture

3

Livestock prices received
stantially in the second half of the
by Texas producers lead price advance . ..
year.
Prices of rice followed a similar
1967 = 100
pattern. Until August, they were
160---------------------------------------------relatively stable. But with export
demand rising in the fall and world
and domestic supplies tightening,
LIVESTOCK AND LIVESTOCK PRODUCT PRICES
prices rose rapidly in the last five
150months of the year.
Cotton, unlike grain and rice,
started the year with prices well
140ahead of year-earlier levels. But as
harvest got underway in Augustamid initial reports of a larger than
expected crop-prices plunged, espe- 130cially for the lower grades. Later
in the season, inclement weather
plagued harvests and reduced pros- 120 _
pective production. This uncerCROP PRICES
tainty, together with the depressed
prices and the very real possibility
of a smaller crop in 1973, led to
110 renewed buying activity and a
stronger cotton market.
Beef cattle prices started the
100 I
year well ahead of year-earlier
1972
1971
levels. And with demand for fed
beef increasing throughout the year sou R C E: u.s. De partment of A9 ricu Itu re
and supply remaining tight, prices
of both feeder and fed cattle continued to rise with fe~ interruptions. The record upsurge in feeder
tially eased the cost-price squeeze
30, with growth evenly distributed
cattle prices was also attributed to
that had plagued farmers and
between real estate and non-realthe development and growth of
ranchers throughout 1970 and
estate loans.
large feedlots, excellent feedlot remost of 1971.
Other major credit institutions
turns early in the year, and a favorprovided
further evidence o~ the
Other developments'
able ratio of fed cattle prices to
increase
in
agricultural lending. In
prices of feed.
With their financial positions imTexas, for example, loans outstandPrices of other livestock also rose proving significantly through 1972, ing at both production credit assosubstantially during the year. Hog
District farmers and ranchers inciations and the Federal Land Banl{
prices averaged more than half
creased their borrowing to record
of Houston rose 14 percent in the
again higher than their monthly
levels. The cost-price squeeze, toyear ended last September. The
levels a year before. And monthly
gether with tight financial condiFarmers Home Administration also
prices of wool and mohair retions, had slowed many types of
recorded significant increases in
bounded from their 1971 lows, with agricultural borrowing in 1970.
loans, especially for rural housing.
wool prices increasing threefold
While credit conditions improved
A significant portion of the funds
and mohair prices fivefold.
in 1971, borrowing was held back
obtained
by borrowing was used
With prices of most crops and
by the drouth and low income. As
of new equipment as
for
purchases
livestock trending upward, prices
a result, capitalization and expanfarmers
replaced
older, less efficient
received by farmers and ranchers
sion plans were postponed, creating machinery. For example, over 50
advanced much faster relative to
a backlog of demand.
percent more tractors were sold (on
prices paid than had been the case
Reflecting the increased borrow- a unit basis) in the District states
in other recent years. In Texas, for
ing in 1972, agricultural credit out- in the first eight months of 1972
example, prices received by farmers standing at commercial banks in
than in the same period a year beand ranchers increased about twice the District advanced more than
fore. Sales of other farm equipment
as fast as prices paid. This substan- 22 percent in the year ended June
also posted gains.

4

.. . as prices received surge ahead of prices paid
1967 = 100
150----_____________________________________________________________________________________________________

140 -

PRICES RECEIVED FOR
TEXAS FARM PRODUCTS

130-

PRICES PAID BY FARMERS

110'l----------------------~~--------------------__,
1971

1972

SOURCE: U.S . Department of Agriculture

As more funds became available,
th e demand for farmland also increased significantly. In the year
ende~ last March, prices of farmland In the District states increased
an average of nearly 9 percent,
co~pared with 8 percent for the
natIon. Louisiana and Texas, with
average price gains of 12 percent
athnd 10 percent, respectively, led
e District states.
. Another significant development
In t972 was the record level of agri~ tural exports. Farmers in the
t.l~trict were unable to fully part IClpate in the early expansion due
the 1971 drouth and resulting
Sort crops. Where the nation reCorded a 4-percent increase in ex~orts in the fiscal year ended June
O, exports from the District states
d l'
h e ~flned
13 percent. In the second
!i of 1972, District exports-espeCIally of rice, wheat, and feed grains
-expanded in line with increased

h

BUsines
. I January 1973
. S R eVlew

production. However, shipments of
cotton, traditionally the District's
largest export crop, lagged because
of slower demand.
A look ahead
Prospects for 1973 seem very favorable for both crop and livestock
producers in the District. Strong
demand for farm products is expected to continue, bolstered by
expanding personal income, a
growing domestic population, and
strengthening foreign demand.
Farm income, therefore, is apt to remain near the record level of 1972.
Both farm population and the
number of commercial farms will
likely continue to decline as offfarm employment alternatives remain good and the consolidation of
farm units continues. And these
developments should mean a rising
average income per farm. Although
a decline is expected in farm popu-

lation, the number of rural residents will likely increase as modern
highway systems and spreading
metropolitan centers offer more
families the opportunity for urban
employment with rural residence.
Improved international relations
should continue to strengthen agricultural exports. The problem of
surplus commodities that plagued
U.S~' agriculture in the 1960's has
been virtually eliminated. Any increased demand, therefore, will be
reflected in stronger average farm
prices and subsequent production
increases. But to prevent producers
from overreacting to extreme price
fluctuations, Government programs
will probably seek to strike a balance between supply and demand.
The outlook for major District
crops appears good. Although 1972
feed grain production declined only
slightly from the record 1971 crop
and wheat stocks were quite large
early last year, record exports
brought about important shifts in
the situation by year-end. Provided
exports maintain their 1972 levels
and domestic consumption continues to expand, average grain prices
should increase this year.
Cotton production in 1972
surged an estimated 2 million bales
over disappearance, raising carryover to about 5 million bales. To
head off increased stocks and depressed prices, growers are expected
to cut production this year to just
under 12 million bales, a level that
should just about equal estimated
disappearance.
Demand for soybeans continues
to expand more rapidly than production, keeping supplies tight and
prices strong. Prices for rice are
also expected to hold strong as
world demand continues to expand.
Livestock producers can expect
to receive significant support from
increased consumer demand. Rising
personal income levels, together
with strong consumer preference
for beef, will probably absorb the
projected increase in beef production and sustain the favorable price
5

levels reached in 1972. A turnaround in pork production is expected early this year, although no
major price decline is anticipated.
The poultry situation should improve. Prices of broilers and turkeys may remain above the low
levels last year in spite of an expected increase in production. A
decline in numbers of layers is
expected to decrease egg production and strengthen prices.
Although farm incomes and
prices have improved, farmers and
ranchers must be very cautious of
excessive production that would

6

reverse the picture for prices and
incomes. Even in 1972, the total
new supply of agricultural commodities outpaced demand despite
an unexpectedly sharp rise in export demand. If agricultural production is to expand at a rate faster
than domestic population growth,
trade must expand. But this trade
is subject to sudden shifts, and care
must be exercised to avoid misinterpretation of short-run situations.
-Carl G. Anderson, Jr.
Dale L. Stansbury

Federal Budget-

Patterns Already Set
Limit Choices to Be Made
The President submits his FY '74
budget to Congress this month.
Work on the budget, which becomes effective July 1, began a year
ago-18 months before the start of
FV'74.
It will provide a fairly clear statement of how the Administration
t hinks the nation's resources might
best be allocated. Its size and the
PreSident's plan for financing it will
affect production, employment, and
the !ate of rise in prices. And the
ChOIce of taxes he proposes will
determine how various groups are
~o help shoulder the burden of payIng for Government services.
And yet, much of the budget will
reflect established trends to which
~~e Administration (and the naIon) can only adapt.

The program now covers 95 percent
of the people over age 65. In addition, spending on education and
manpower training programs has
increased more than six times since
1963. And payments for income
security (mainly Social Security)
have increased almost three times.
With these increases in outlays
have come marked shifts in the
composition of Government expenditures-in the allocation of resources. Although Defense spend-

ing, for example', has increased
almost $26 billion, it now accounts
for only a third of the Government's
total spending, compared with almost half in FY '63. Meanwhile,
outlays for health care have increased from little more than 1 percent of the budget to over 7 percent.
And spending for income security
has increased from 22 percent to
28 percent.
Although federal spending has
risen sharply over the past ten

Growth in budget outlays outpaces GNP
BUDGET

GNP

BILLION DOLLARS

240 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1,200

Larger budgets .••

~he budget has grown rapidly over
e past ten years. Total outlays
rose from $111.3 billion in FY '63
to $231.6 billion in FY '72-or at
a~ ~nual rate of 8.5 percent. Much
o thIS was due to inflation. MeaSured in terms of the purchasing
POWer of the 1972 consumer dollar
~though not necessarily that of '
overnment-spent dollars, the inFre~se was from $153.9 billion in
fV 63-an average annual increase
o 4.6 percent. During that time,
constant-dollar GNP grew an aver:ge of only 3.4 percent a year. As
percentage of GNP Government
sp
r' «:n ding was clearly 'inching ahead,
t ISIng from 19.4 percent in FY '63
021.1 percent in FY '72.
t The fastest rise was in expendii~res on human resources. Spendg on health care in FY '72 for
eJra mp Ie, was more than 12 times
'
?l'eater than in 1963. Most of the
~~~rhease hB:s come since eI?actment
e Medicare program m 1967.
nUsines s R eVlew
. I January 1973

200 -

-1,000

160 -

-

800

-

600

80 -

-

400

40 -

-

200

PRODUCT

o

I
1963

1966

I

1969

I

o

1972

FISCAL YEARS
SOURCE: The Budget of the United States Government, 1973

7

Defense spending declines relative to other budget outlays
years, receipts, too, have almost
doubled. This increase in revenues
PERCENT OF TOTAL BUDGET OUTLAYS
has been due both to an increased
100revenue yield from existing taxes
ALL OTHER
as the economy expanded and to
changes made in the tax laws to
EDUCATION
help finance new social programs.
80But there has also been a clear
MANPOWER
shift in the types of taxes the GovHEALTH
ernment emphasizes. Payroll taxes
INTEREST
have been the fastest rising of all
60taxes, replacing corporation income
taxes as the second largest source
INCOME
of revenue.
SECURITY
Individual income taxes still ac40count for about 45 percent of Government receipts. But where Social
Security taxes, mainly on wages
and salaries, accounted (along with
DEFENSE
employers' contributions) for 19
percent of budget receipts in FY
'63, they accounted for over 27 percent in FY '72. And where corporation income taxes accounted for 20
1973
1971
1963
1969
1965
1967
percent in FY '63, they accounted
FISCAL YEARS
for only 15 percent in FY '72.
1973 estimated
As a percentage of family income, SOURCE: The Budget of the United States Government,1973
payroll taxes are now the largest
taxes paid by families earning up
to $10,000 a year-and that is about
half the families.
the uncontrollable programs are
One place where sizable amounts
And this shift in emphasis connot subject to a yearly appropriacould be cut in FY '73 is in the Detinues. In line with the growing
tions review by Congress.
fense budget, which contains aloutlays for health care and income
The importance of these promost two-thirds of the controllable
maintenance, Social Security taxes grams outside the appropriations
items. Over half the Defense budwere increased again this month.
procedures has been pointed up in
get, however, goes for military and
the President's efforts to hold FY
civilian pay. And with personnel
... harder to control
'73 spending under $250 billion.
levels already close to the lowest
As the Government has grown bigThe agency with the largest budin years, any further cuts in perger, so has the problem of controlget authority is the Department of
sonnel would be hard to make.
ling the budget. Essentially unconHealth, Education, and Welfare.
The number of active-duty pertrollable items-mainly trust funds,
But the President can control only
sonnel, for example, is down 1.2
such as Social Security, and perma- a little over a tenth of its expenmillion from peak Vietnam levels
nent or indefinite appropriations,
ditures, the rest being from trust
to a point lower than when the
such as veterans' benefits-made
funds for Social Security, disabilbuildup began in 1964. Any sizable
up 71 percent of the budget author- ity insurance, and Medicare and
cut in Defense spending, therefore,
ity requested in the FY '73 budget. Medicaid.
would have to come out of military
And these items are expected to
More than 80 percent of the
investment-procurement, research
exceed 75 percent by FY '77.
Treasury's $27.7 billion budget au- and development, and military conUltimately, of course, all Govthority is for payment of interest
struction. And these are items that
ernment programs are controllable. on the national debt-another major have already been pared by ConTrust funds, for example, were
item the President cannot control.
gress and the Administration.
created by legislative action and
The uncontrollable portions of
Spending could also be reduced
can be altered or eliminated in the
the budgets of these two agencies
in some other relatively controlsame way. Barring such congresalone account for more than $100
lable areas, such as federal grantssional action, however, funds for
billion in the FY '73 budget.
in-aid, and payments under some

~~~I~bf~!~~4~~~~~~rAND
r

8

SOcial insurance replaces corporation income as second largest source of federal

fax revenue

ALL OTHER

1963

1968

1973

FISCAL YEARS
1973 estimated
SOURCE: The Budget of the United States Government , 1973

programs could be postponed. To
help reduce the budget deficit still
further, additional revenue could be
raised by the Government through
the sale of assets, such as oil leases
and mineral and timber rights.

So in FY '74 •.•
Even if the President can hold expenditures to $250 billion in FY
73, the large deficits of recent
Years might easily continue. With?ut ~ny major new programs, proieCh.ons .by both the Brookings
~Sh~utlOn and the American Ent rprlse Institute show expendiures growing by about $50 billion
$~~r t~e next two years, reaching
t" 0 bIllion in FY '75. During that
~~e, With no tax increases, receipts
Ii 1 probably grow about $60 bilon, reaching $283 billion. That~SUming full employment-will still
aVe a deficit of $17 billion.
in ~ost of the projected increase
overnment spending comes
nus·
lDess Review I January 1973

from programs already established.
Defense spending, for example, is
apt to rise at least $10 billion-primarily reflecting both projected
price increases and greater reliance
on strategic forces. The biggest
item in this category will probably
be development of a new sea-based
missile system.
But movement to an all-volunteer Armed Forces will also push
up costs. Military pay has been
trending upward for many years.
Typically, an Army recruit received
$288 a month last year, compared
with $78 ten years before. A colonel
received $1,933, compared with
$985 a decade before. Additional
increases became effective January
1, and still more may be needed to
attract volunteers. Incentive bonuses tied to an escalator plan are
already scheduled for FY '74.
Actual Defense expenditures
could, in fact, exceed the $10
billion expected rise. The budget

makes no allowance for possible
cost overruns on defense contracts.
But a survey conducted by the
General Accounting Office two
years ago showed that 52 major
weapon-system contracts were
overrun an average of 30 percent.
But as in other recent years, the
biggest increases are apt to be in
areas other than defense. For all his
efforts to cut Government spending, the President has not been able
to reduce the costs of established
social programs-or even prevent
their rise.
Under the President's own plan
to increase Social Security payments, for example, the cost would
have risen almost $7 billion in FY
'73. And Congress increased payments enough to raise the bill another $2 billion.
The uptrend in this type spending shows no sign of abating. With
a growing number of beneficiaries
becoming eligible for Social Sp9

tinue. But while the Government
seems likely to run deficits in its
spending through FY '75, the outlook is for these deficits to begin decreasing somewhat.
With continued improvements in
employment, revenues should begin
catching up with spending on current programs sometime after FY
'75, creating the possibility of a
turnaround by FY '77-provided no
substantive changes are made in
existing programs and no new programs are initiated. Then, the U.S.
Government, like state and local
governments, could begin running
small surpluses. Before that, however, other factors will have started
influencing the Administration's
options.
Even allowing for the unlikely
..• and years beyond
possibility that further major inAs the Administration begins work creases in spending can be avoided,
on the budget for still another fiscal taxes may have to be raised to reyear, many of the conditions that
duce the inflationary consequences
limited its choices in preparation
of deficit spending in an economy
of the FY '74 budget clearly connearing full employment.
Decisions to be made over the
next two or three years, then, might
include the need for higher taxes.
Taxes can be increased essentially
Uncontrollable items increase in relative importance
three ways• By raising rates on the current
BILLION DOLLARS
tax base
250 ----------------------------------------------~~• By changing the tax base
RELATIVELY UNCONTROLLABLE ITEMS
• By imposing a new tax
•
TOTAL BUDGET OUTLAYS
Raising rates on a given tax base
is a fairly straightforward way of
200 increasing revenue. The Government could balance its budget as
~arly as FY '75 merely by imposmg a 10-percent surtax on indi150 vidual and corporation income
taxes. The effect of such a change
would, of course, be a 10-percent
100
increase in the tax itself.
Changing the tax base is not so
simple. Often falling within the
realm of reform, the matter of re50
definition of the base is usually de1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
voted to what many consider the
FISCAL YEARS
closing of loopholes. A staff report
1972 and 1973 estimated
for the Joint Economic Committee
SOURCE : U.S . Office of Management and Budg e t
shows that major federal tax subsidies cost the Government almost
$36 billion in FY '71. If this esti-

curity payments, the cost of the
program will be some $8 billion
higher in FY '75-without any further increases in benefits. And
Medicare and Medicaid will push
the cost still higher. As with the
basic Social Security program, the
increases will be due to the combination of an increased number
of beneficiaries and substantially
higher benefits already enacted.
Without any new programs,
health-related spending will rise
an estimated $5 billion by FY '75.
And by then, there could be substantial support for some kind of
national health insurance. A presidential commission recently recommended such a move, and the
President indicated he would favor
such a program-albeit on a voluntarybasis.
Meanwhile, the KennedyGriffiths bill for a Health Security
Act is pending in Congress. Passage of this or some other national
health plan would add significantly

rn

10

to Government spending. According to the Department of Health,
Education, and Welfare, the Kennedy-Griffiths program would cost
$90 billion a year. By eliminating
the need for Medicare and Medicaid, it would cost a net $60 billion.
Revenue sharing will also increas.e the budget-probably about
$8.3 billion this fiscal year. Enacted
last year, this program to share federal revenue with state and local
governments comes, paradoxically,
when state and local government
expenditures are beginning to run
surpluses. During the current fiscal
year, state and local governments
are expected to collect revenues
exceeding their aggregate expenditures by $15 billion.

mate is anywhere close-and even
if the costs of these tax subsidies
did not increase between FY '71
and FY '75-the budget could be
balanced by eliminating only half
the special provisions used to reduce tax liabilities.
But which half? All these provisions benefit groups that want
to keep them. And as Chairman
Wilbur Mills of the House Ways
and Means Committee has said,
they were written into law by presumably rational men for presumably rational reasons.
Probably the only realistic possibility for a new tax would be on
consumption-such as a sales tax or
the often-mentioned value-added
tax. A tax on consumption, however, tends to be regressive. Taking
~ declining portion of income as
lncome rises, it falls heaviest on
lower income groups. Historically,
tBJCes of this kind have been opPOsed in this country.
The most likely expectation is
that rates will be raised and some
tBJC provisions changed to redefine
the tax base.
Some such tax revisions may be
needed. For the budget to be bal~ced under the current tax strucure by FY '77 there can be no
major changes'in federal programs
;a~d. not only do the provisions of
b:lClstlllg programs tend to change
ut demands for additional pro~ams develop constantly. The
.0Vernment can exercise discretion in meeting the demands on it
only if revenue is available or general economic conditions will allow

Busincss R eVlew
.
I January 1973

Budget authority in one year affects outlays in future years

BILLION DOllARS

TO BE SPENT
IN 1973
148 .0

OUTLAYS IN
1973
246.3

•

UNSPENT
AUTHORITY FOR
~ OUTLAYS IN
FUTURE YEARS
289.8

.-..

SOURCE: The Budget of the United States Government, 1973

deficits. And the need for a more
balanced budget could become serious long before FY '77.
With the economy coming closer
to full employment, a decision
about Government revenues will
have to be made. And like all decisions regarding the budget, the
action taken (or not taken) will
require that the public pay-either
directly through higher taxes or indirectly through inflation.
-George E. Garrison

11

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
January 1973

Statistical Supplement to the Business Review

Total credit at weekly reporting
banks in the Eleventh District rose
~arplY in the four weeks ended
ecember 20, largely reflecting
~eavy borrowing by businesses. The
Increase in bank credit was accomlnodated through sizable inflows of
deposits.
Total loans, adjusted for a small
~ecline in loans sold outright to
.ank affiliates, advanced substantIally. While business loans acCOunted for most of the increase,
real estate and consumer installnent loans also showed strength.
With the increase in loan derand, banks added only moderateto their holdings of securities.
cquisitions of municipal issues
a.ccounted for most of the expanIon , but banks also increased their
oldings of short-term Government
acurities. Holdings of longer-term
overnment issues were reduced
SOtnewhat.
I T0t:'li deposits expanded marked/';un.ng this period, principally
e ect111g the sizable inflo)'V of delnand deposits. There was a mod~}1ate increase in time and savings
thPosits, although, as is typical at
c .at time of year, large CD's ded~ne~ s~mewhat. Despite the large
SlOSlt mflows, banks increased
ghtly their reliance on non dePOsit sources of funds to further
aCCOtnmodate credit demands.

X

h

~~aSo?allY adjusted total employnt 111 the five southwestern states
inas up again in November, breakin g 9ctober's record high and posttn g Its fifth consecutive month-toP Onth rise. The new level was 3.3
u~rcent above a year earlier. The
feuetnployment rate for November
in oto 4.0 percent from 4.4 percent
1971ctober. The rate in November
Was 4.7 percent.
\\>

All categories of nonfarm employment showed gains over a year
before. The strongest advances
were in construction (7.7 percent) ,
finance (5.4 percent) , and durable
manufacturing (5.0 percent). The
only category reporting a monthto-month decline in employment
was the service industries-down
0.1 percent. Durable goods manufacturing showed the largest increase over October, a gain of 0.8
percent. Employment in construction and nondurable manufacturing
also posted strong gains.
Registrations of new passenger
automobiles in Dallas, Fort Worth,
Houston, and San Antonio rose 1
percent in November, reaching
a level 13 percent above a year
earlier. Cumulative registrations
for the first 11 months of 1972
were 12 percent higher than for
the same period in 1971.
Department store sales in the
Eleventh District were 14 percent
greater in the four weeks ended
December 23 than in the corresponding period in 1971. Cumulative
sales through that date were 11
percent higher than in the comparable period a year before.
The seasonally adjusted Texas industrial production index rose 1.2
percent in November to 134.5 percent of its 1967 base. Gains were
reported in all three major sectors
of the index-manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Nationwide production also showed advances in
all sectors. Since the start of 1972,
the Texas index has risen nearly
10 percent.
In manufacturing, durable goods
production continued to provide
the primary impetus, rising 2.7 per-

cent over October. All durable
goods industries showed both
month-to-month and year-to-year
increases. The largest gains over
October were in the output of fabricat ed metals, primary metals, and
electrical machinery. Nondurable
manufacturing rose slightly in N 0vember, despite decreases in textile
mill products, chemical and allied
products, and petroleum refining.
Mining also advanced slightly,
with increases in the output of
crude oil and natural gas liquids
more than offsetting declines in
the production of natural gas and
metal, stone, and earth minerals.
Output of utilities showed a sharp
rise of 4.2 percent, as the distribution of electricity rebounded from
its sizable drop a month before.
Prices received by Texas farmers
and ranchers advanced slightly in
the month ended November 15,
reaching a level 14 percent above a
year before. Unlike price increases
in other recent months, the N 0vember rise was centered in crops,
as livestock prices declined somewhat. Grain sorghum, rice, barley,
and hay posted increases that more
than offset declines in prices of beef
cattle, calves, and poultry. However,
the livestock price index remained
16 percent higher than a year
earlier, while crop prices were only
6 percent higher.
Higher prices, together with an
increase in total production,
boosted receipts from farm marketings in the Eleventh District states
to $5.7 billion through the first ten
months of 1972-15 percent more
than for the same period of 1971.
The rate of increase in receipts in
the District states has been moderately better than in the nation as
a whole.

CONDITION STATISTICS OF WEEKLY REPORTING COMMERCIAL BANKS

Eleventh Federal Reserve District
(Thousand dollars)
Dec.20,
1972

Nov.22,
1972

Dec. 22,
1971

Othe r loans and discounts, gross .. .......... ... .

1,426,193
8,769,102

1,155,718
8,591 ,470

1,057,662
7,351,540

Comm ercial and industrial loan s ... .... . .. .. . .

3,844,157

3,745,310

3,352,197

Agricultural loans, excluding CCC
certiAcat es of interest •.............. ... . ..

228,94 1

227,801

158,300

1,340
85,438

1,308
92,924

1,111
50,565

6,773
471,444

7, 173
468,999

5,594
44 1,323

169,601
790,237
1,181,469
24,486
15,750
957,837

153,431
761,632
1, 158,942
21,067
16,676
941,926

158,127
52 1,543
912,76 1
23,099
32,572
821,816

0
99 1,629
3,803,437

0
994,281
3,713,575

0
872,532
3,306,206

985,988
192,957
0

984,323
177,797
0

1,045,700
102,801
0

ASSETS
Fed e ral funds sold and se curities purchased

Total deposits .. .. . ... . . . ....................

under agre emen ts to resell .• . ....•..••.•....

loans to brokers and dealers for
purcha sing or carrying :
U.S. Government securiti es ........... . . .. . .

Othe r securities ........... ..... ..... '.... .
Other loan s for purchasing or carrying:

U.S. Governm e nt securities .... . ..... . .. ... .
Othe r securities ....... .................. .
loans to nonbank Anencial institutions:
Sales finance, personal AMance, factors,
and other business credit companie s...... .

Other •...... . ...••...•.... . • . ... .... ..
Real estate loans .. ...................... . .
Loans to domestic comm ercial banks .... . ..... .
loans to foreign banks .. .. . ...... . .. . .. .. . . .
Con sumer instalment loans ........... ...... . .
Loans to foreign governm ents, offlcial
institutions, central banks, and international
institutions ... ..... .... . . " . . .. . ... ..... .
Oth er loan s...•........... ... ..... . .. • . ...
Total investments . ..... ....... . . . . . ......... .
Total U.S. Government securities ........ .... . .
Treasury bill s ........... . . .......... . .. .
Treasury certiAcates of indebtedness ...•... .
Treasury notes and U.S. Government
bond s maturing:
Within 1 year ••............. . .........
1 year to 5 years •••...................
After 5 years ......... .. ........ ..... .
Obligations of states and political subdivisions:
Tax warrants and short·term notes and bills ...

160,790
440,645
191,596

140,954
470,547
195,025

154,929
601,470
186,500

242,089
2,326,306

210,995
2,279,2 11

80,135
1,983,238

14,138
234,916
1,441,486
843,013
118,406
394,297
12,368

14,832
224,214
1,395,610
821,915
99,929
435,216
11,777

21,213
175,920
1,457,254
1,189,135
99,1 14
444,095
16,312

672,129

636,362

495,869

TOTAL ASSETS.......... . ............... 17,480,431

16,861,572

15,417,187

All other •.•••••..•.••..••..•• ... ..•..•.
Oth er bonds, corporate stoc ks, and securitiesl
C ertiflcates representing participation s in
federal agency loans •....... ... . ..... ..

All other (including corporate stoc ks} • •••.•.•.
Cash item s in process of collection ....... . .....•.
Reserves with Federal Reserve Bank ............ .
Currency and coin •.•............. . .... .. •...
Balance s with banks in the United Stat es ........ .
Balances with banks in foreign countries .. •...•...
Other assets (Including investments in subsidiaries
not consolidated) •• ............... .. . ..•...

Total d emand deposits ...• •... ... . ..........
Individuals, partnerships, and corporations . ...
State s and po litical subdivisions ............
U.S. Government .. ... ... ..... .. . . .. . ....
Banks in the Unit ed States .... . . . ... .. .. ...
Foreign:
Governments, offlcial institutions, centra l
banks, and international institutions . .....
Commercial banks . . ... . ... . ..... . . ... .
Certifled and ofAcers' ch ecks, etc ... ..... .. ..
Total time and saving s d eposits••... . . ... •. • . .
Ind iViduals, partnerships, and corporations:
Savings deposits.................. . ... .
Other time deposits ...... . ........•....
State s and politica l su bdivisions ............
U.S. Government {including postal sa vings) •...
Bank s in th e Unit ed Slates . .. . .......... . ..
Foreign:
Governments, ofAcial institutions, control
banks, and in tern ational institutions ••....
Commercial bonks ........ . ... . ........
Fe dera l funds purchased and se curit ies so ld
under agreements to re purcha se .•. . ...... . ...
O ther lia bllitie s for borrowed money ............
Oth er liabilities ........... ...... . ....... . ....
Reserve s on loans.•..........•.......... .. ...
Reserves on securities ............•. .. . . .•....•
Total capital accounts .. . ..... . .... . ..... . ....

TOTAL ASSETSe •••.•..•.....•...•..•.

30,468

30,364

26,499

Demand d e po sits of banks ..•............
Other demand deposits.. . . . .. . . . . .......
Time d eposits ................. ... .. ....

1,594
11,1 00
12, 159

1,788
11,107
11,7 10

1,666
9,797
10,076

Total deposits ••....••....••....• . •. ••
Borrowings ..... . . . .. .. .... .. . . .. ......
Oth er Jiabilitiese ••....... . ..... ....... . .
Total capital accountse . . . . . . . . . . . • . .. . ..

24,853
2,224
1,225
2,166

24,605
2,409
1,191
2,159

21,539
1,809
1,243
1,908

TOTAL LIABILITIES AND CAPITAL
ACCOUNTSe ••••• •• .. •••• .........

30,468

30,364

26,499

e-Estimated

1,210,157
3,249,738
1,536,025
25,253
107,634

1,201,429
3,304,316
1,461,580
29,726
107,OB9

1,084,03 4
2,73 1,46 6
1,169,278
11 ,768
89,043

11,095
1,120

13,000
1,100

19,800
1,10 0

1,943,667
244,609
472,214
142,045
17,413
1,15B,623

1,920,670
85,73 1
432,799
141.D57
17,829
1,16 1,085

1,888,624
44,27 1
425,053
135,510
22,16 4
1,065,707

----

---16,861,572

---

-

15,4 17&

TIME DEPOSITS _
U.S.

---

-

Governm ent

Total

Savings

206
166
266
300
281
300
314
384
280
289
226
254
264
222

8,622
10,025
10,273
10,607
10,864
10,978
10,938
11,075
11,233
11,304
11,441
11,492
11,618
12,009

2, 167
2,49 1
2,509
2,528
2,552
2,430
2,640
2,660
2,6B8
2,71 4
2,717
2,744
2,770
2,786

October •••

L1A81L1T1ES AND CAPITAL ACCOUNTS

2,380
36,01 4
91,866
5,106,489

7,570
8,23 1
8,388
8,510
8,382
8,515
8,696
8,530
8,553
8,694
8,824
8,933
9,034
9,321

November ..

Cosh In vault • .•••• . .. .•. . •..••.•...• •. .

3,753
45,501
93,814
6,118,240

Adjusted'

September.

Balance s with banks in the United States .. ..
Balances with banks in foreign counlries e .•..
Cash items in process of collection . .. •......
Other assets e ..... ... . ... .. ...... . .. . ..

2,891
40,551
155,647
6,141,022

Tota l

(Million dollars)

14,028
2,352
4,415
1,726
271
1,183
12
1,508
1,004

6,729,369
4,686,248
295,267
246,836
1,370,758

10,843
11,64 1
11,98 1
12,313
11,983
12,118
12,470r
12,26B
12,320
12,529r
12,420
12,6 19
12,866
12,844

Jun e . . . . ...

16,154
2,328
5,363
1,723
326
1,334
IS
1,888
1,233

I1,B35,B58

Date

July ••..••.
August •••••

17,021
2,338
5,340
1,350
318
1,241
12
1,548
1,300

-

1970, November • •
1971 , November • .

Eleventh Federal Reserve District

loans and discounts, gross •. . .. . ..... .....
U.S. Government obligation s..... .........
Oth er sec urities .. . • .. .. ....... ...... . ...
Reserves with Federal Reserve Bank .... .. . .

4,930,000
533,035
147,995
1,230,063

DEMAND DEPOSITS

April ..•...
May .•.•••

Item

13,102,401

(Averages of dally figures. Million dollars)

CONDITION STATISTICS OF ALL MEMBER BANKS

ASSETS

---6,984,161

7,360,83B
5,099,208
527,334
246,094
1,289,113

DEMAND AND TIME DEPOSITS OF MEMBER BANKS

February . . ..
March •....

Nov. 24,
1971

13,501,B60

----

Dec. 22,
1971

Eleventh Federal Reserve District

December ..

Oct. 25,
1972

Nov. 22,
1972

TOTAL LIABILITIES, RESERVES, AND
CAPITAL ACCOUNTS •• • • ..••....•• • •..• 17,480,431

1972. January .•••

Nov. 29,
1972

Dec.20,
1972

LIABILITIES

1. Other than those of U.S. Government a nd domestic commercial banks,
less cash Items In process of co ll ection
r-Revlsed

RESERVE POSITIONS OF MEM BER BANKS

Eleventh Federal Reserve District
(Averages of dally figures. Thousand dollars)
5 weeks en d ed

4 weeks end ed

Item

Dec. 6 1972

Nov. I, 1972

Total reserves held ..... . . . .... . . .
With Federal Reserve Bank ..... .
Currency and coin ... ......... .
Required reserves .••.... . • ... ....
Excess reserves .......... . ...... .
Borrowing s ...... . • .......... •..
Free reserves ..............•....

1,734,604
1,454,854
279,750
1,668,625
65,979
48,802
17,177

1,951,896
1,668,597
283,299
1,929,517
22,379
21,444
935

--

r

BANK DEBITS, END-OF-MONTH DEPOSITS, AND DEPOSIT TURNOVER

SMSA's in Eleventh Federal Reserve District

-

(DOllar amounts In thousands , seasonally adj usted)
DE81TS TO DEMAND DEPOSIT ACCOUNTS'
DEMAND DEPOSITS'
Porcent chang e

November
1972

-

Standard metropolitan

(Annual-rote

basis)

sta tisticol are a

lARIZONA'T
. ucson . . .. •....•..• ......... ..... ....... .
OUISIANA, Monroe .. ......... ... ...... . ............
NEW
Shreveport •....•...••...•••.••••.....•.•
TEX MEXICO, Roswell ' .• • .. •....• .•.. • .... ••.... .. • .

AS,

~:~2~!~"": ::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::

Beaumont- Port Arthur-Orange ••.. ••............•

S,ownsvillo.Harlingen.Son Benito ...... ...........

CrYan-College Station ••••. .. •..•.•..•••... • ...

f~~;1Y';· • • • • •. ·• • · • • ·• • •·•
~~~~~:':' .: ::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::
~i];:g~)," .•. .•• · • •. · • ·••.. •. .
H olvoston-Tex a s City ..... ..... . ............ ...

M~Allen-Pharr-Edinburg • . .... . . ••... . . •.... . .••

Terarkana (Texa s-Arkansa s) ..••..••..•.••••.•••

~~ift~:Llis:.:.:: ::::::: :: ::::::::::: : :::::::

:

----

TOl o l_ 29 centers ...................................

$ 11,443 ,020
4,345,308
15,089,124
990,348
2,694,408
8,740,380
13,863,4 20
7,41 5,976
2,654,736
1,406,466
8,140,236
564,240
170,820,744
11,011,500
29,876,772
3,590,652
154,698,528
1,306,632
5,383,920
2,780,784
2,4 14,880
1,880,220
1,795,248
24,087,624
1,298,208
1,819,512
3,629,592
4,068,756
3,146,400

$500,957,634

Annual rote
of turnover

November 1972 from
October
1972

November

1971

11 months,
1972 from
197 1

19 %
2
4
0
-2
-6
6
2
6
-8
3
6
12
11
1
-5
7
6
-9
0
-2
0
-2
6
-1
6
9
3
2

24%
24
19
-6
9
21
8
8
-5
13
5
9
19
43
20
21
19
14
15
36
8
1
13
7
3
8
41
6
11

26%
21
17
0
13
20
16
5
18
23
14
5
12
18
9
5
21
13
10
35
7
9
15
8
10
14
20
15
13

7%

18%

15%

Novem b er 30,

November

Octob er

1972

1972

1972

$271,827
111,238
295,484
44,959
124,398
193,109
422,269
266,279
104,408
51,806
288,876
35,843
2,749,7 18
296,735
821,578
124,3 14
3,217,342
50,963
191,313
142,677
147,516
109,281
77,948
864,698
75,206
84,581
115,252
149,750
131,210

38.6
37.6
48.9
22.3
22.1
43.9
32.6
26.9
25.7
26.6
29.7
15.6
60 .2
35.4
36.7
28.4
48.0
25.2
28.3
19.1
16.2
17.0
22.8
27.6
16.8
21.3
30.6
27.1
23.7

30.9
35.9
46.6
22.8
22.8
45.9
30.8
26.1
24.5
29.1
30.2
14.7
54.4
31.4
37.2
28.8
45.3
23.7
31.9
19.8
16.1
17.4
23.2
26.6
17.0
20.2
28.0
27.2
23.0

32.6
35.2
46.4
23.9
23.2
42.8
34.6
26.9
31.0
26.6
29.3
16.0
59.1
27.4
35.2
27.0
45.8
26.5
26.4
17.7
15.7
19.7
22.7
31.0
17.9
20.9
24.7
28.7
22.5

42.7

40.1

41.4

$ 11,560,578

Novem ber

1971

1.
2. geposlts of Individuals, partnerships and corpora tions and of states and political subdivisions
Ounty basis
'

CONDITION OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS
(Th

BUILDING PERMITS

---

oUsand doll a rs)

_____

Item

T~tol
gold certiA cote
Distau t f

reserves • ..••..•• ..• •••
Or member banks ••••. .. •... , . •.•

Oth er ~ ~
lJ,S. GO~:~nu~ ts and a~~ances .•• ... .. . . .•• ..
Tolal e . ent seCUriti es • .•. ..... ..•• •• . .•
~ernbe~rb~~k o/sets .... . .. : .............. .
odoral R

eserve d eposits•. . • •. . .•.••..

~serve not es in actual circulation .....

Dec. 20,
1972

Nov. 22,
1972

Dec. 22,
1971

211,268
191,155

302,317
13,075

496,061
975

3,103,764
3,294,919
1,392,108
2,280,725

3,169,044
3,182,119
1,384,976
2,221 ,198

3,275,522
3,276,497
1,696,569
2,132,291

o

o

VALUATION (Dollar emounts in thousands)
Percent change

Nov. 1972
NUM8ER

o

Nov.
Area

ARIZONA

1972

from

11 mos . Nove mbe r
1972
1972

11 mos.
1972

Oct .
1972

Nov.
1971

11 months,
1972 from
1971

438

7,640

$ 11 ,008

$160,563

50
446

998
5,136

705
8,649

22,921
59,005

-11
107

-2
152

38
-28

56
105
449
208
91
287
1,174
22
666
320
71
3,022
43
195
76
73
61
80
1,172
38
62
175
74

760
1,797
6,003
2,325
1,154
4,257
17,950
354
6,487
4,548
822
38,965
567
2,116
1,01 4
968
971
780
16,211
487
641
2,337
880

1,593
1,507
10,660
1,076
1,109
3,893
32,841
1,252
10,410
5,900
748
52,296
299
7,173
633
1,030
142
722
13,148
851
512
3,669
827

16,381
30,546
218,931
25,358
13,221
57,528
360,612
3,868
161,364
84,485
12,439
585,7 17
12,544
58,597
17,137
22,817
4,950
8,036
208,973
7,315
6,733
36,238
14,090

79
-71
-27
-14
-87
-5
92
628
-33
-46
-56
3
274
55
29
398
- 27
18
-30
195
88
1
-37

120
-16
-48
-20
119
-27
61
636
26
-24
-45
47
- 57
57
55
-78
-35
145
17
61
-86
16
-82

43
-2
24
40
41

Total-26 cities.. . 9,454

126,168

Tucson •.••..•.

32% 178%

98%

LOUISIANA
Monroe-West
Monroe .....
Shreveport .•..

TEXAS
Abilene •......
Amarillo . .. .. .

Austin ....... .

VALUE OF CONSTRUCTION CONTRACTS

Be aumont •• , • .

Brown svill e •...

(Million dollars)

Corpus Chri sti •.

----~ eandtyp e
FIVE
ST ~T~~.rHWESTERN
Re.identi·a·l· • :. : . •• . . •• . .
Nonresid.nt~ulldl~g: • . • • . •
Nonb 'Id' 01 bUilding . • • .
UNITED u, 109 construction....
R•• id ST.ATES............

Dallas .......•
January - November
Nove mber

1972

October
1972

Se ptem ber
1972

1972

1971r

8,432
10,497
960
775
864
4,157
5,398
526
445
478
2,524
2,776
266
183
242
1,751
2,323
169
147
145
73,948
85,029
8,197
7,248
8,225
31,735
42,296
4,135
NonreOs~~~~t~Uildi~g: • . . • • . 3,663
4,298
23,657
24,935
2,378
NOnbuli' 01 bu,ldlng . . . .
2,184
2,384
18,557
17,798
1,684
~ng construction....
1,402
1,544
1. Arlzo -:-;- -- - - - - - - -- - - - - -- - - - - :-;-Fl evlsn~ LoUiSiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas
"OTI:' e
SOUFlc Details may not a dd to tot a ls because of rounding .
1:: F. W. Dodge DiviSion, McGra w-Hili Information Systems Company

Deni son •......

EI Pa so •.....•
Fort Worth . ••.
Galves ton .•. ••
Houston •.•.••.
Loredo . •.• •• •

Lubbock . • • . •.
Midland • . •..•
Odessa •.•....
Port Arthur • • . •
Son Angelo .•.•
Son Antonio . •.
Shermon ..... .
Tex arkana •.•.

Waco ..... . . .

Wichita Falls ...

$172,853 $2 ,210,369

3%

18%

-5

30
40
50
-24
6
3
67
10
34
89
- 14
-18
81
38
-36
48
-37
20%

CITRUS FRUIT PRODUCTION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

(Thousand boxes)

(Seasonally adj usted Indexes, 1967
Indicated
1972

State and crop

1970

1971

= 100)

-

November

Octob er

September

November

1972p

1972

1972

1971

134.5
138.3
150.3
129.7
122.1
146.3

132.9
136.6
146.3
129.6
121.9
140.4

131.6r
133.4r
143.9
125.9r
122.1 r
150.4r

124.6
127.4
137.6
120.0
112.4
145.4

118.5
117.8
11 2.5
125.2
110.4
147.4

117.2
116.4
111.3
123.8
109.6
146.8

116.1 r
115.3r
109.9r
123.4r
110.2r
145.6r

107.4
106.0
99.1
115.9
102.5
136.0

Area and typ e of index

t'

TEXAS

ARIZONA

4,900
2,540

5,100
2,600

Orang es ... . .. . ...... . .. . .
G rapefruit . .......... . ... .

TEXAS

5,800
9,200

6,800
10,400

Oranges ..... . ..... .. . .. . .
Grapefruit ..... .. ........ .

3,560
2,520

Total industrial pro duction . . . .. .
Manufacturing ..... .. ...... . ...

Durablo •. ..•....... . ..... . ..
Nondurab/o • •....•...•. ... •. .

6,200
10,100

Mining ..... . .. . . .......... . .. .
Utilities .•.. ........ . .... . .... .

UNITED STATES

SOURCE: U.S . Departm ent of Agriculture

Total indu strial production ... . ..
Manufacturing .. .. ...... . .... . .

Durable .. ....... . ....... .. . .
Nondurable . .. . ... ....... ... .
Mining ... .. ...... . .... . . . ... . .
Utilities ...... . ... .... ... .. ... .

p- Prellmlnary
r-Revised
SOURCES : Board 01 Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Federal Rese rve Bank of Dallas

LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Five Southwestern States 1
(Seasonally adjusted)
Percent change

Nov. 1972 from

Thousands of persons

November

Item

1972p

October
1972

Nove mber

197 1r

Oct.
1972

Nov.
1971

DAILY AVERAGE PRODUCTION OF CRUDE OIL

--

(Thousand barrels)
Civilian labor force .••..... ..
Total employment •••. . •••• ..
Total un em plo yment .. .......
Un em ployment rate •• .... ...
Total nonagricu ltural wage
and salary employment ... .

Manufacturing . ... .......
Durabl .. . .............
Nondurable ... . .. .. . . .
Nonmanufacturing •.•.. ...
Mining ............... .
Construction . ..• .. ••. . •

Tran sportation and
public utilities ........

Trade ....... . ........
Finance ... • ...........
Service .... ..•...... ..
Government .•.........

8,553.5
8,215.1
338.5
4.0%

8,582.6
8,208.2
374.4
4.4%

8,348.5
7,953 .1
395.4
4.7%

6,721.7
1,177.0
644.6
532.4
5,544.7
227.6
454.1

6,704.2
1,169.6
639.8
529.8
5,534.6
227.6
451.0

6,464.5
1,132.2
613 .7
518.5
5,332 .2
227.0
421.5

.3
.6
.8
.5
.2
.0
.7

4.0
4.0
5.0
2.7
4.0
.3
7.7

458.4
1,595.3
360.7
1,085.6
1,362.9

458.3
1,592.2
360.0
1,086.5
1,359.1

449.2
1,525.0
342.3
1,042.3
1,325.0

.0
.2
.2
- .1
.3

2.0
4.6
5.4
4.2
2.9

-0.3% 2.5%
.1
3.3
-9.6 - 14.4
'_.7
' -.4

Percent change from

1. Arizona , Lou isiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas
2. Actual change
p-Preli mlnary
r-Revlsed
NOTE: Details may not add to totals because of rounding.
SOURCES : State employment age nci es
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (seasonal adjustment)

October
1972

November

1972

6,941.1
2,556.2
296.0
537.6
3,551.3
733.4
1,748.9
242.6
66.5
759.9
9,540.6

7,020.0
2,609.3
296.0
557.3
3,557.4
731.6
1,738.5
246.5
66.6
774.2
9,603.5

6,563 .7
2,495.0
314.8
585.2
3,168.7
593.2
1,602.9
168.9
70.0
733.7
9,201.2

Novem ber
Area

1971r

------------~
--Octob er

November

1972

1971

---------------------------------------FOUR SOUTHWESTERN
STATES ........ .. ...... .
Louisiana .... . ...... . ... .
N ew Mexico • . ... .. ......

Oklahoma ....... . ...... .
Texas ................. .

Gulf Coa st .. . . . ...... .
West Texa s .... . . .. .. .

East Toxas (proper) . .. . .
Panhandle • ..•.........
Rest of state . . ........ .

UNITED STATES ........... .

- 1.1%
-2.0
.0
-3.5
- .2
.2
.6

-1.6
-.2
-1.8
-.7%

5.7%
2.5
_6.0
_8.1
12.1
23.6
9.1
43.6
_5.0
3.6
3.7%

--~~~---------------------------------------------r- Revised
SO URCES: Americ a n Petroleum Institute
U.S . Bureau of Mines
Federal Res erve Bank of Dallas