Full text of Review (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas) : January 1, 1954

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REVIEW
FEDERAL
Vol. 39, No.1

RES E R V E

BANK

DALLAS, TEXAS

o

F

DALLAS
January 1, 1954

THE EC ONOM IC T REN D

Looking back upon economic developments in the South·
west over the past 12 months, certain features stand out im·
pressively. Although there is no single index available which
reflects total economic activity in the area, several widely
used indicators of production, distrihntion, and income support the conclusion that 1953 was a record year. Most of the
principal indexes of economic activity - such as nonagricul·
tural and mannfacturing employment, average weekly earnings in m.anufacturing, crude oil production and refining,
III retail and department store sales, bank debits, bank deposits,
, and bank loans - rose to new highs in 1953 and also averaged higher than during the preceding record year of 1952.
The outstanding exceptions to this general pattern were cash
receipts from farm marketings and the value of construction
contract awards.
While 1953 was a year of record economic actIVIty, it
also must be noted as a year in which inflationary forces
were firmly checked and deflationary factors became more
apparent. The several charts presented in this article clearly
show that the gains in 1953 over comparable months in 1952
narrowed perceptibly and, in some cases, disappeared as the
year moved to a close. Adjnstments taking place in business,
industry, and agriculture, although generally moderate, were
of sufficient strength to level off the trends which had been
rising and, in a few cases, to turn the direction of the lines
slightly downward. Clearly, 1953 removed the last traces of
the dominance of a seHer's market and unmistakably marked
the shift to a buyer's market. Consequently, competition
alTlong businessmen became more intense, and selling efforts
became more aggressive. Efficiency and service gained greater
recognition, and the concept of economy - or more value
for the dollar of the producer or the consumer gained
respect and acceptance.

boom. The year 1953, on the other hand, came to an end on
a note of adjustment. For several months there has been
taking place a sort of transition from a condition of economic
boom that has been stimulated, at least partly, by inflationary
tendencies and characterized by sharply rising trends to a
different kind of economic situation. Here, of course, arises
the $64 question: Is this transition likely to lead, after a
further period of adjustment, into a situation of comparative
economic stability at levels near to or only moderately below
current figures, or is it probable that there will be considerable deflation of economic activity to levels that are significantly lower than those now prevailing?
It is not easy to develop an answer to this question that is
categorical and definitive and, at the same time, wholly satisfactory and intellectually honest. Just as estimates of the
economic outlook - at least in part - depend on and are
influenced by the plans of various segments or groups in the
economic system, so are those plans often influenced and
modified as the economic future unfolds. If the economic
plans or intentions of, for example, Government, business,
and the American buying public were positively determined
and known and were not suhject to change, a projection of
the economic outlook obviously would be much simpler and,
incidentally, much more reliable than actually is the case.
However, despite the elements of uncertainty that are involved in such projections, it is useful to review the recent
trends of the major economic factors and to appraise the significance of tbe broader, tentative plans for 1954 of major
groups in the economy.

Certainly, one of the most publicized happenings influencing economic conditions in the District during 1953 was
the continuation of the severe drought that has adverscly
affected agriculture in a large part of the Southwest. VirThese developments in the District - which, in large meas- tually all of the western part of the District and parts of the
ure, have been consistent with national movements - nat- extreme South and Southwest experienced a serious lack of
urally have clouded the outlook for 1954 and have aroused rainfall. Moreover, in much of this area the shortage of
much speculation as to the economic pattern for the months moisture had prevailed during the preceding 2 years. In some
ahead. It will be remembered that 1952 closed on a note of parts of the area, crop production was limited, and in almost
marked strength; moreover, that characteristic extended into all of the western sections, livestock operations suffered. Genthe first 4 or 5 months of 1953 before adjustmeuts, becoming erally widespread rainfall during the third quarter of the
more numerous, began to slow down the progress of the year relieved conditions greatly and improved the outlook,
This publication was digitized and made available by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' Historical Library (FedHistory@dal.frb.org)

2

MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW

CASH RECEIPTS FROM FARM MARKETINGS
FI\,'E SOUTHWESTERN STATES

e -E IHm ll l d

SOU RCE U S

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although the damage to ranges and pastures and to agricultural operations in the most severely affected sections obviously will require time to overcome_
Despite the severity of the drought - and its effects should
not be minimized, total agricultural production in the District in 1953 exceeded production in 1952 by perhaps 2 percent and represents the fourth largest output of agricultural
products in the area. Especially fortunate were the larger
crops of cotton, rice, and peanuts, which helped to raise total
crop production to the highest level since 1949. There was
very little net change during 1953 in the total production of
livestock and livestock products, although marketings of cattle and sheep were very heavy as a result of the severe drought
and the unfavorable feed situation. The slaughter of cattle
and calves in Texas in 1953 was perhaps 50 percent larger
than a year earlier.
A second unfavorable development affecting agriculture in
the Southwest was the sharp decline in fann commodity
prices that continued during 1953. Estimates indicate that
prices of farm commodities averaged from 16 to 18 percent
lower during 1953 than a year earlier. Consequently, although crop production was somewhat larger and production
of livestock and livestock products showed virtually no net
change, cash receipts from farm marketings in the five southwestern states lying wholly or partly in the Eleventh District
are estimated to have declined about 12 percent. Cash receipts from marketings of crops were in the neighborhood
of 11 percent under 1952 figures, while receipts from marketings of livestock and livestock products are estimated to
have declined perhaps 14 percent. In 1952, total cash receipts from farm marketings in the area were $3,875,000,000,
whereas the estimate for 1953 places the total at about
$3,400,000,000.
Year-end moisture conditions are reported to be generally
better than a year ago, although in parts of the area, additional rains will he needed to compensate for the long
drought. There is some feeling that the declining trend of
fann commodity prices has passed through its worst stages

and that over the next 6 or more months prices may tend to •
hold comparatively near to current levels. In reviewing agri- •
cultural developments in the District, it is significant that,
on the whole, the results for 1953 were more favorable than
might have been expected earlier in the year. Also, there has
been no development of a cumulative distress movement. On
the whole, the adjustment through which agriculture has been
passing for the past 2 years or more and which was severely
aggravated in this District by the drought has been reasonably well withstood.
In the absence of a regional index of industrial production,
reliance must be placed on other available data revealing
trends with respect to factors such as employment, crude oil
production and refining, and construction. More people were
at work in the Southwest during 1953 than in 1952. It is
estimated that the average increase in total nonagricultural
employment during 1953 was about 2 percent, while that of
manufacturing employment probably was about 4 percent.
Moreover, each month during the year showed larger nonagricultural and manufacturing employment than the com·
parable monlh in 1952. On the other hand, it should be
noted that the number of persons added to the employed
working force was appreciably smaller in 1953 than in the
preceding year. In other words, there continued to be growth
in employment bnt at a lesser rate - and, in fact, magnitude
- than in 1952.

At the end of 1953, persons employed in manufacturing ~
in the area are estimated to have totaled about 727,500, or ,.
about 4,600 more than at the end of 1952. From the accompanying chart showing manufacturing employment hy
months during 1953 and 1952, it will be noled that the margin of gain over 1952 was well maintained through the fir.st
8 months of the year, and peak employment was reported m
August at 736,300. During the last 4 months of the year the
gain over comparable months in 1952 shrunk sharply and
steadily. To a large extent, the decline during the latter part
of the year was heaviest in what might be termed "defense
and defense-related industries." On the other hand, employment gains in such industries as those producing primary

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MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW

•

metals, apparel, and chemicals were more than sufficient
to offset the cutbacks that occurred in the defense-type
industries.

NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT
FIVE SOUTHWESTERN STATES

••
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Average weekly hours worked and earnings of manufac·
turing workers in the District are reflected, at least in part,
by figures showing developm nts in Texas. During the first
8 months of 1953, average weekly hours of work by persons
engaged in manufacturing in Texas showed very little change
from comparable figures for 1952. For instance, during
August 1953, average weekly hours worked were 41.9, as
against 42.1 in January; in 1952, comparable figures were
42.0 and 42.3. During the last 4 months of 1952, average
weekly hours worked rose appreciably and at the year's end
were 43.4. On the other hand, during the same months in
1953 a slight decline occurred, with the result that the estimate for December places the figure at 41.0. Throughout
the past year, assuming a 40-hour workweek as "normal,"
manufacturing workers in Texas were on an overtime basis,
although the amount of overtime by the year-end had shrunk
to about one-third of what it was a year earlier.
Average weekly earnings of manufacturing workers in
Texas rose further during 1953, although the increase from
January to December was about $1.49, as compared with an
increase of 6.38 in 1952. The trend of average weekly earnings during the 2 years is not appreciably different from
that of average weekly hours worked and thus tends to re~ flect the increase in overtime work during the last third of
, 1952, as compared with the decrease in the same 4 months
in 1953. Higher average wage rates also are reflected, inasmuch as average weekly earnings in December 1953 were
$70.70 for 41 hours of work, as compared with $70.25 for
43.4 hours of work in December 1952.
These figures indicate that the volume of industrial output
in the Southwest in 1953 exceeded that of 1952 and thus was
at a record level. WillIe the gain of man power engaged in
manufacturing was not large when consideration is given to
the increase in the number of workers and the slight decline
in the number of hours worked, it probably represented an
increase in output due to the greater productivity per worker
that may safely be assumed for industry in the area. Capital
expenditures designed to increase plant efficiency and to
modernize equipment have been in substantial volume. In
addition, new industries have continued to be attracted to
the area, as witnessed by such figures as those reporting 84
new manufacturing finns in Texas during the first 11 months
of 1953, as compared with 87 such firms during the full year
1952. An increase in the use of electrical power for industrial
purposes also points toward greater production. While none
of these factors, considered individually, is conclusive, collectively they seem to support the view that comparatively
full utilization of an enlarged productive capacity was
achieved in the area in 1953.
Turning to the broader coverage of total nonagricultural
cmployment, a similar picture presents itself, although the
declining rate of increase in employment set in earlier in the
year than was the case with respect to manufacturing. During January 1953, for instance, about 142,000 more people

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were engaged in nonagricultural employment than in the
same month of 1952. Each month thereafter, with but one
exception, the gain over the comparable month in 1952 was
somewhat less. By the end of the year, nonagricultural employment, estimated at 3,910,000, was 7,700 more than a
year earlier. This larger number of employed workers indicates a higher volume of business activity - a condition that
is supported, in general, by other data drawn from banking
sources, from retail trade, and from such indexes as that of
business activity published by the Bureau of Business Research of the University of Texas.
Perhaps one of the most significant features of the trends
that have developed in employment, hours worked, and
weekly earnings is the absence of any sharp or seriously
cumulative declining movement during the year. In other
words, such adjustments as have been taking place in the
economy of the area have not tended to "feed upon themselves" in a serious manner. Moreover, elements of resistance
to decline and, in some cases, factors of actual strength have
tended to moderate or to prevent a downward movement of
the indexes. In effect, it appears that the business and industrial system has been operating at Illgher levels but is
reflecting in less rapid growth some of the effects of economic
adjustments.
The petroleum industry in the District in 1953 achieved
new gains in terms of output but, at the same time, faced
certain problems of adjustment. New record levels were
reached in daily average crude production, daily average
crude runs to refinery stills, and total well completions. As
the accompanying chart on crude oil production shows,
strength was most notable during the first half of the year,
whereas in 1952, daily average production was largest during
the last 4 months. In 1952, following settlement of the refinery strike, production rose sharply, reaching a peak in
December. As the months passed in 1953, inventories of both
crude and refined products began to accumulate. In addition,
despite an increase in the price of crude at midyear, prices
of petroleum products began to show easing tendencies.

MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW

4

CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION

TOTAL WELL COMPLETIONS

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At no time, however, did either the inventory or the price
situation threaten to get beyond control or manageable
proportions.
Total production and daily average production of crude
oil in the District were approximately 1 percent larger than
in 1952. It is estimated that production totaled about 1,135,400,000 barrels, as compared with 1,127,700,000 barrels in
1952. Daily average production followed a declining trend
during most months of the past year, with output of the District's wells averaging an estimated 2,910,000 barrels daily
in December, or 322,000 less than the January daily average.
Refinery activity, as reflected by crude runs to stills, was
more than 5 percent above the 1952 figure. Output of refined
products was larger between January and June than in subsequent months, reflecting in considerable part the unfavorable
inventory situation which developed.
In fact, refinery activity during both 1952 and 1953 reflected the effect of inventory developments in the industry.
During the last 6 months of 1952, refining was stepped up to
replenish inventories that had been reduced by the strike
which occurred in the second quarter of the year. On the
other hand, during the last half of 1953, refinery operations
were cut back in an attempt to improve inventory positions
that had become somewhat excessive. Month-to-month fluctuations in refinery activity during 1953 were comparatively
small- the largest being 85,000 barrels daily average. This
tendency toward stability in outpnt, together with an over-all
increase in refinery runs for the year, seems to confirm the
view that the inventory problem is not unduly serious.
The search for oil in the District, stimulated at midyear
by the increase in the price of crude, was very active during
1953, with the result that very large-scale drilling activity
prevailed. New well completions are estimated at more than
20,000 for the 12-month period, exceeding the 1952 total by
about 5 percent.
The widespread distribution of petroleum operations over
large parts of the District has had a stabilizing effect upon
the economy in several respects. In the first place, the petro-

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leurn industry in all its ramifications certainly represents a
major source of income and a strong economic support in the
District. Secondly, it provides the basic raw materials for an
important segment of the industrial development that has
been taking place in the Southwest. Third, the industry's demand for a multitude of products tends to help support a
substantial industrial structure. Fourth, it is a major source
of tax receipts to governmental bodies. Finally, through its
production, refining, leasing, and drilling activities in 1953, ..
the indUl.try supplied a substantial offset to declining agri- ,
cultural income, especially in the wcstern part of the District
where the drought was so severe and livestock and agricultural losses were heavy.
The value of construction contract awards in the District
fell below the $1,454,500,000 reported in 1952 by perhaps 8
percent, judging from preliminary and incomplete figures.
Following over-all strength during January and February,
total awards declined under comparable 1952 monthly data
until September, when the declining trend was reversed. Residential a wards showed a larger decrease during 1953 than
other types of construction. As was the case with rcspect to
total awards, weakness was most pronounced during the late
spring and summer months. A tighter mortgage money market probably accounts, at least in part, for the midyear trend.
Later in the year, as the mortgage market eased somewhat
and money became more available, conditions in the residential field showed improvement. Construction - even at the
somewhat lower levels of 1953, when awards probably exceeded $1,300,000,000 - has been a very 'strong support of
economic activity in the Southwest.
For several years, very large consumer expenditures have
been especially important in maintaining a high and expanding level of economic activity. Full employment at relatively
high wages has contributed to a high level of income, and the
broadening of the income base has strengthened total consumer spending power. The year 1953 was no exception in
this respect. Total retail trade is estimated to have run slightly
above the 1952 volume, with the increase prohably being in
the neighborhood of from 3 to 4 percent.

4

5

MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW

DEPARTMENT STORE SALES

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Figures reported by the weekly reporting department
stores in the District indicate a gain in department store
sales over 1952 of about 1 percent. During the first half of
the past year, department store sal es ran appreciably abovc
year·earlier fi gures but then tapered off. Sales during Sep·
tember and October showed the largest monthly declines
from a year ago but were followed by satisfactory recovery
during the two closing months of the year. On the whole,
.. sales of soft goods held up well durin g 1953, willIe hard
, goods sales were under 1952 levels.
Inventories at department stores l'ose during the fir st 3
months of the yea r and were probably somewhat excessive
by August and September. More cauti ous buyin g practices
on the part of department store managements, together with
unproved sales results during the closing months of the
year, relieved the inventory situation. At the end of 1953 it
is estinlated that department store inventories were in r~a.
sonably good balancc and only slightl y above the 1952
level, after all owances are made for the necessary seasonal
adjustments.

Viewing retail and department store sales as a whole
during the year, the conclusion appears to be one of strength
and a willingness on the part of consumers to buy the goods
and services necessary to meet their requirements. It is true
that a buyer's market prevailed, especially during the last 6
months of the year, and sales policies of retail stores neces·
sarily hecame more aggressive. On the whole, however, con·
sumers responded favorably and maintained their purchases
at high levels. No adverse psychological factors appeared in
the picture.
Banking developments in the District, as might be expected, reflected the general economic trend. Such important
banking items as total resources, total deposits, total loans,
and capital accounts are estimated to have risen above 1952
year-end figures. The increase over 1952, however, was somewhat less than that of the preceding year. During the first 5
months of 1953, the demand for bank credit was very strong,
and a degree of tightness prevailed. During the remainder of
the year, however, a moderate degree of ease developed, as
ccntral banking policies designed to make reserves more
readily available began to exert their influence.
On the basis of figures through the first 11 months of the
year, indications are that total resources of the District's
member banks probably were in the neighborhood of about
88,900,000,000 at the end of 1953, reflecting an increase of
between 1 and 2 percent. A similar increase in total deposits
probably brought this figure to about $8,300,000,000 by the
year-end. Total loans, which increased during 1952 by about
11 percent, are estimated to have shown a 5-percent rise
during the past year, with the total volume somewhat in excess of $3,000,000,000 on December 31. Perhaps the most
significant banking development during 1953 was the lessth an-seasonal gain in bank loans during the last 6 months.
This shonld not be surprising, however, for it was consistent
with the general economic pattern that prevailed during the
period. On the whole, banks in the District proved adequately
able to meet the essential growth and seasonal requirements
of business, industry, and agriculture and closed the year on
a note of strength.

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6

MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW

The foregoing review of developments which occurred in
various fields of economic activity during 1953 reveals certain features that are of significance as we look ahead into
the future_ Of course, one of these is that, despite the adj ustments that occurred during part of 1953, the over-all
level of economic activity showed further growth, even
though it was slightly less than the growth experienced in
1952. Another significant factor is that, with the exception
of developments in such limited areas as livestock prices and
with respect to certain other agricultural factors, there were
no sharp or serious declines which threatened the stability
of economic activity in the District. Likewise, there were no
tendencies apparent for adjustments to cumulate into a
downward movement of serious proportions. In fact, on the
contrary, factors of strength and support in the economy
clearly moderated the effect of such adj ustments as were
occurring. Evidences of a resistance to decline - such as
occurred in the closing months of the year with respect to
retail trade, department store trade, and construction - seem
to indicate an underlying strength and an absence of fundamental weaknesses.
The economy of the Southwest, of course, must function
and operate within the general framework of what is usually
referred to as national economic conditions. In this respect,
certain tentative estimates of major groups in the economy
pointing toward their intentions and plans in 1954 are significant. The Nation's business and industry apparently intend to continue capital expenditures in large volume. Available estimates of these types of expenditures for 1954 place
the total for the first quarter of the year slightly above the
comparable figures of 1953 and for the year as a whole only
4 percent below the 1953 record level. Private and governmental estimates of total construction expenditures during
1954 also are so large as to indicate virtually full utilization
of that major supporting industry's labor and facilities.
These estimates indicate that total construction expenditures

in 1954 probably will be no more than 2 or 3 percent under
the 1953 figures.
~
Economy in Federal expenditures undoubtedly will be
achieved in some degree, and it now appears that the deficit
in the Federal budget during the coming year may be somewhat less than was previously anticipated. Expenditures of
the Federal Government for national security and other purposes, however, will be so large as to provide strong support
to the economy as a whole, even though the stimulative effect
of rising expenditures such as has been experienced during
past years will be lacking. Finally, most estimates of consumer expenditures indicate that there will be no weakening
in this very important factor - possibly there may be a moderate increase in such expenditures, which would tend to
offset contractive influences in other factors.
Early in this article the question was raised whether the
transition from economic boom to a different kind of economic situation could be comparatively smooth and lead into
satisfactory economic stability at levels, at most, only moderately below current figures. There do not appear to be compelling reasons why this question should not be answered
affirmatively; in fact, recent trends of economic activity in
the District and estimates of major supporting factors such
as those reviewed above point strongly toward that affirmative conclusion. Further adjustments in 1954 are probable;
also, economic conditions are likely to become more competitive and a premium will be placed on aggressive merchandising, efficiency, and sound business and financial practices.
Nevertheless, the outlook for 1954 should not be regarded as
unfavorable. New records of over-all economic activity may
not be achieved in 1954, but if there should be net changes
from 1953, it appears at this time that they would be comparatively small and capable of being absorbed without too
serious difficulty or strain.

4

MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW

REVIEW OF BUSINESS, AGRICULTURAL, AND

Christmas trade at District
department stores is estimated
to have fallen slightly below
the record total reported during the corresponding period
of 1952, although sales of gift-type merchandise
items probably reached a record volume somewhat
in excess of those a year ago.
Year-end inventories at department stores indicate a substantial reduction during December; while
they are still slightly higher than a year ago, the distribution among departments is better balanced.
Harvest of the large 1953 cotton crop is nearing
completion; excellent yields per acre were obtained in
most areas. Farm prices are holding relatively steady.
Moisture conditions in the District at the start of
1954 are improved over a year ago. Winter pasture
and grain and vegetable crops are making good
progress. Planting of early spring crops is expected
• to begin under generally favorable conditions.
District crude oil production in December declined
for the fifth consecutive month. Heavy stocks of
refined products and a smaller-than-usual rise in demand stemming from mild fall weather have combined to hold refinery runs to a reduced level. Prices
have eased somewhat.
Nonagricultural employment in the District increased in December to a record level, but the gain
over a year earlier was less than 1 percent. Manufacturing employment, which increased in November, declined in December but also closed the year
slightly above December 1952 figures.

7

FINANCIAL

The 1953 Christmas trade at department stores in the Eleventh
Federal Reserve District apparently
fell slightly below the record volume
of 1952. December sales through
Christmas Eve totaled an estimated 2 percent less than in the
comparable period a year earlier.
Sales of gift items (such as jewelry and watches, handbags, wearing apparel, men's furnishings, small appliances,
sporting goods, and radios and phonographs, as well as furniture and bedding) were reported near - and, in some
cases above - the 1952 record. Sales of children's toys and
game's were the most active ever experienced by department
stores and probably established a new high for the Christmas
season.
On the other hand, sales of floor coverings, television sets,
and major appliances were lower than in December 1952,
with losses ranging up to 25 percent. In fact, consumer purchases of these items since late spring of 1953 have been
below the heavy buying which occurred in corresponding
months of 1952, following suspension of Regulation W.
During November, daily average sales at department stores
picked up sharply over October. Despite three less business
days, total sales for the month equaled the October volume
and showed a decline of less than 1 percent from November
1952. Sales recovered in a number of soft goods lines which
had been lagging behind year-earlier totals since August and
showed moderate to substantial gains. Sales of household textiles rose 5 percent above November 1952; sales of sportswear
and girls' wear rose 5 percent and 13 percent, respectively;
and sales of men's furnishings rose 8 percent, while boys'
wear showed a gain of 4 percent. Basement slore sales, which
RETAil TRADE STATISTICS
(Percentage change)

NET SALES

Une of tr(lde

by area
DEPARTMENT STORES

The value of construction contracts awarded in the

District during November exceeded by a substantial
margin the year-earlier total. A wards for the first 1 7
months of 1953 trailed the comparable 1952 figure,
with most of the 8-percent decline occurring in government outlays.
Loans of weekly reporting member banks rose
moderately during the 4 Vleeks ended December 16,
after a much smaller-than-usual expansion during the
fall months; CCC operations contributed significantly
to the increase.

CONDITIONS

Total Eleventh District •••••••••••••
Corpus Christl •••••••••••••••••••

_1

Dallas •••••••••••••••••••••••••

2
-8
2
2
-2
-2
-11
-3

EI Paso •••••••••••••••••••••• • •

Fort Worth •••.•••••••••••••••••
HOulton •••••• . •••••••.•••••••.•

Son Antonio ••••••••••••••••••••
Shreveport, La .. , .• •••••••••••• . •
Waco .••••••••.•.•••••••••••••
Other cities ••••••••••••••••••• ••
FURNITURE STORES
Total Elaventh District •••• •• •••••••
Auttin ••• ••••••••••• •••••••••••
Dollas •••••••••••••••••••••••••
Houston •• • • ••••••••••••••••••••
Port Arthur •••••••••••••••••••••
Son Antonio ••••••••••••••••••••
Shreveport, La ............ . ..... .

Other cities •••••••••••••• • •••• _ •
HOUSEHOLD APPUANCE STORES
Total Eleventh District ............ .

DoUos._ ••• _•••••••••••••••••••

STOCKS'

Nov, 1953 from
No't'. 1953 from
- - - - - 11 mo_ 1953 - - - Nov.
Oct.
compo with
No.,.
Oct.
1952
1953 11 mo.1952 1952
1953

-7

-7

-I

_12
-2
-9
10
3
1
-1
2
-3

-3
2

-12
-3
-1
-1
-15

-10
2

-7
-7

-10

-19
-12

20
42

-7

1
3
2
2
-3
4
-2
2
-6
2

4
-6
6
3
2
8
3

-2
2

3
-10
12
-20

-I

-2
-1

-5
-I

1
3
-3
-3

,

,

_1

-10

14

-I

1 Stocles at end of month.
, Indicates change of less than one·half of I percent.

-17
-10

-3
4

MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW

8

stalment receivables at rcporting stores at the end of November were at an all-time high, but the ll-percent increase ..
from January 1, 1953, was considerably lower than the 22- •
percent rise that occurred during the same period in 1952.

INDEXES OF DEPARTMENT STORE SALES AND STOCKS

=

(l947.49

100)

UNADJUSTED
Area

ADJUSTEDl

Oct. Sept. Noy. No..,. Oct. Sept, Noy.
1953 1953 1952 1953 1953 1953 1952

Nov.
1953

SALES- Daily average
Eleventh District •••• ••••••••

Dallas ..•................ .
Houston •••••. . •.••••••••• •

144
141
166

128
128
142

119
119
137

138
162

127
122
148

122
119
144

112
108
125

120
145

152p

152

148

14Sr

137p 139

142

131

145r

128r

STOCKS-End of month
Eleventh District ........••..

1 Adjusted for seasonal voriation.
r-Revlsed.
p-Preliminory,

declined in both September and October, rose in November
to a level 6 percent above November 1952.
Other gains registered during November over year· earlier
totals were in sales of silverware and jewelry, which were up
4 percent; furniture and bedding, up 10 percent; radios and
phonographs, 43 percent; and toys and games, 20 percent.
The principal losses during the month occurred in the sales
of major household appliances and television sets, which
were down 32 percent and 26 percent, respectively. For the
year 1953 through November, cumulative monthly depart·
ment store sales for the District showed a gain of 1 percent
over the comparable period in 1952. Total sales for 1953 are
estimated to have set a new record, although the gain over
1952 was very small.
At reporting stores the proportion of sales for cash duro
ing November represented approximately 32 percent of total
sales - 1 percent lower than during November 1952. Charge
account sales were 58 percent of the total, compared with 54
percent a year earlier; instalment sales represented 10 per·
cent, whereas in November 1952 they represented 13 percent.
Charge accounts receivable rose 10 percent in November
as compared with the end of October and were 4 percent
above November 1952. Instalment receivables at the end of
the month were up only 1 percent from a month earlier but
were 14 percent higher than on the same date in 1952. InWHOLESALE TRADE STATISTICS

Eleventh Federal Reserve District
(Percentage change)

NET SALESp

STOCKSl p

November 1953 from

line of trade
Drugs and sundries ••.... ...•
Dry goods .•......•.......
Grocery (volootary-group and
full· line wholesalers not
sponsoring groups) ........
Hardware .•.............. .
Industricl supplies ...........
Machinery equipment and sup·
plies except electrical .....
Metcls ................ • ...
Tobacco products ........•.•
Wines ond liquors ...... ...•
Wiring supplies, construction
materials distributors ......

November 1953 from

11 mo.1953
compo with November
11 mo.1952
1952

November
1952

October
1953

9
-24

3
-22

5
- 7

-2
_4
-8

-2
-3

-2
77
- 5

-1

-11

-16

-.

-22

-23

- 11

16
44

Stocks at end of month.
p_Prelimlnary.

1

i Indicates change of less Inan one·half of 1 percent.
SOURCE: United Stales Sureau of the Census.

Furniture store sales at reporting stores in the District
during November declined only 3 percent from October, despite the fact that November offered three less business days.
Compared with the same month a year earlier, however, November sales showed a loss of 7 percent. Collections were off
6 percent from October, while accounts receivable rosc 1 percent during the month to a total 4 percent above November
1952. Inventories registered a month-to-month decline of 1
percent and at the end of the month were 10 percent below
November 30, 1952.

4

Agricultural conditions in the
District during December generally
were favorable for development of
small grains, legmnes, and commercial winter vegetables. Fog and light
rain dnring the early part of the month delayed completion
of cotton harvesting operations. However, extensive use of
mechanical strippers, plus an ample supply of labor, en·
abled farmers to harvest most of the 1953 cotton crop by the
end of December.
Generally favorable weather during November resulted in
further increases in the estimates of cotton production in the
District and the Nation. On December 1 the forecast for
Texas was raised by 200,000 bales and that for the District
by 233,000 bales. Increases also were indicated for Oklahoma
and Louisiana. The national crop, now forecast at 16,437,000
bales, is exceeded only by the crops of 1926, 1931, and 1937.

1953

-7
-5

-8
3
3

-8
- 7
3

-6
-3
8
25

-3
- i

- 11

Department store inventories declined slightly during November and at the end of the month were 4, percent above a
year earlier, the increases occurring chiefly in wearing ap·
parel and major appliances. Further improvement in inventory positions occurred during December.

October

2
6

•

Collections on accounts receivable during November, as
related to the amount outstanding at the beginning of the
month, showed no appreciable change from recent months
and only a slight change from November 1952. On the basis
of reported figures, the average collection time on charge
accounts was approximately 67 days. On instalment accounts
the average pay-out period was about 17 months, compared
with 16 months a year earlier.

-1

20

The 419 pounds of lint harvested per acre in Louisiana in
1953 is a record. In Texas the per acre yield is estimated at
232 pounds - 61 pounds above 1952 and 49 pounds above
the 10·year (1942-51) average. The Texas average yield has
been exceeded only once since the turn of the century; in
194.9, yields per acre averaged 261 pounds. Yields were unusually good in the Blacklands area, with an average of 243
pounds per acre, compared with the 1942-51 average of 152
pounds. In the Pecos and Upper Rio Grande Valleys, the
average yield of 587 pounds of lint is more than 100 pounds
above that for the lO-year period.

~

~

MONTHLY BUSIKESS REVIEW

9

COTTON PRODUCTION

LIVESTOCK RECEIPTS

Texas Crop Reporting D istricts

(Number)

(In thousands of bolas-SOD lb. gross wi .)

SAN ANTONIO MARKET

FORT WORTH MARKET
1953

1951

Crop reporting district

l·N ..................... . ..

1952

10·5 .. ... ..................

351
941
288
218
33
608
113
85
192
25
192
86
256
79
607

467
1,005
182
59
12
610
95
96
UO
17
200
222
231
62
310

Stole ... .......... . .... .

4.074

3.808

1-S • ....... . • ... ........ .. .

2·N ........................

2·5 ................... . ....
3 .............•..........•.
4 ......... .. . .. ... .... .....
S·N ........ ' ...•.... . ....

0.

5·5 ... ......... ............
6 ..........................
7 ..........................
S·N ............•..... _.... .

8·5 ........................
9 ..........................
lO-N ........ .... . ...... . •..

Indicate d
December 1

540
835
155
320
35

1953
01

Odober
1953

Octob.r

November

November

1953

1952

111,363
.U,347
38,872

38,027
37,029

21,506
15,925

24,181
18,816

60,016

124,979

116,022

130,651

1953

1952

67.588

104.818
Cal ....I . . . . . . . . . . 38,896
Hogl .......... . 52.886
Sheep ......... . .40,155
Cattle . ........ .

130
122
275
35
210
76
230
32
260

116
83
85
542
292
180
137
127
115
206
105
34
100
52
84

4,35 0

114

1,095

Cia»

percent of

November November
1953
19$2

25,217
57.875
49,535

I Include, goats.

In the eastern two· thirds of the District and in northwestern
Texas counties, small grains, winter pastures, and legumes
are providing abundant grazing, and cattle are making excel·
lent gains. Sheep are entering the winter in fair to good con·
dition in most of the sheep·producing areas.

SOURCEI United Slot., Department of A\lriculture.

Winter wheat acreage in District states for harvest in 1954
is estimated by the United States Department of Agriculture
at 10,946,000 acres, which reflects a decrease of 16 percent
from the acreage seeded for harvest in 1953 but is 31 percent
above the acreage actually harvested in 1953. Texas acreage
is placed at 4,731,000 acres - 13 percent below the acreage
seeded in the fall of 1952 hut nearly double the acreage
actually harvested. Acreage in all areas is about in line with
acreage allotments issued for the 1954 crop, with allowances
for permissible overplanting under specified conditions. Na·
• tional winter wheat acreage, estimated at 46,575,000 acres,
, is about 20 percent below a year ago and the smallest since
1943.
Condition of the present winter wheat crop is reported to
be good to excellent, with moisture supplies generally ample.
Production in District states in 1954, presently indicated at
128,139,000 bushels, is highly dependent on weather condi·
tions between now and harvest time, but if the crop indicated
should materialize, it would be 35 percent larger than the
relatively small production in 1953. The Texas crop is esti·
mated at 52,041,000 bushels, which, if realized, would be the
largest crop since 1949.
Year·end range and pastme conditions in the District are
reported to be substantially better than a year earlier and
generally favorable, except in southwestern areas of Texas
and in southern New Mexico and Arizona. In those areas,
cured range fced is extremely short, and supplemental feed·
ing is being contin ued on a large scale. Despite heavy feed·
ing, cattle and calves are reported to be losing some weight.

Marketings of cattle and calves during November were in
relatively large volume, but the increase over a year ago was
much smaller than in earlier months of the year. Incomplete
figures indicate that slaughter of cattle and calves in Texas
in 1953 was nearly 50 percent higher than in 1952. For the
Nation, slaughter probably exceeded the volume of 1952 by
as much as 30 percent.
Commercial production of winter vegetables in Texas is
expected to be 7 percent greater than in the 1952·53 season
and one·fifth larger than the 1949·52 average. Total acreage
planted is 8 percent larger than a year ago, but per acre
yields are not expected to equal those of last season for all
crops. Freezing temperatures around the 15th of December
extended into the Winter Garden Area and the Lower Rio
Grande Valley of Texas, causing damage to both mature and
young vegetable plants.
At 259 percent of the 1910·14 average, the index of prices
received by Texas farmers was unchanged from mid·October
to mid·November but was 14 percent (42 index points) below
November 1952. Reports from spot commodity markets in.
dicate only minor changes since mid·November. Hogs and
feeder cattle generally are selling for somewhat higher prices
than 6 weeks ago, while prices of cotton and rice have de·
c1ined slightly.
The moisture situation over the District at the beginning
of 1954 is considerably better than that at the same time last
year . Planting of spring crops in south Texas is expected to
be made under generally favorable moistme conditions. Cot·
CITRUS FRUIT PRODUCTION
lin thousands of boxes)

WINTER WHEAT
ACREAGE SEEDED
(In ftlousandt of acret)
Crop of
Stole

1953

Arizona ........... .. ..... .. .

25
611
6,966

New Mexico .. .... .. ..•...•. .
Oklahoma .................. .

Crop of
1954

Crop of

23
550

598
515

1953

Texo$ .. • •.•••.••••••••.••. •

5,438

5,642
4,731

70;J76
23,035

Total •....•••..... • .•.. •

13,040

10,946

94,924

SOURCE: United Siales Department of Agriculture.

Average of

PRODUCTION

10,.as::ms
end.d 1952

(In thousands of blJShels)

Crop of
1954

552

ARIZONA
Oranges .•.•.••.••••....• .

Grapefruit .••...•..•.•.•..

2,200
73,346

LOUISIANA

.52,041

1951·52

Oranges ... .. ............ .

128,139

Grapefruit • . . .......•• . ...

Indicated
1953·54

1,000
3,220

2,140

900
3,000

3,300

300

50

50

85

3,366
15.342

300
200

1,000

TEXAS

Oranges .........•....•...

1952·53

SOURCE: United Stoles Deportment of Agriculture.

730

400

1,200

1,300

1.100

10

MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
FARM COMMODITY PRICES

Top Prices Paid in Local Southwest Markets
Comparable Comparable
Week ended
'Nuk
woek
Unit 00c.21,1953 last month
la lt year

Commodity and marKet

------------------ - - - - - .3235 - - - -COTTON, Middling 15 / 16-inch, Dallas .... lb.
.3210
$

WHEAT. No.1 hard, Fort Worth .......•..
OATS. No.2 whit., Fort Worth ........ . . .
CORN. N.J. 2 yellow. Fort Woorfh ....•.•.•
SORGHUMS, No, 2 yellow, f,;,rt W orth .•••
HOGS, Choice. Fort Wo rth .. . ..... .. ....
SlAUGHrER srEERS. Cholce. Fort Worth •..
SLAUGHTER CALVES. Choice, Fort Worth ...
STOCKER STEERS. Choice, Fort Worth .•...
HENS, 4 pounds and ovor, Fort Worth .....
FRYERS, Commercia l, Fori Warth ....... . ,.
BROILERS, south Texa s.... . .. . . . .. . . ....
EGGS, Graded and E:ondled, Fort Wortn . ..
TUR.<EYS, N o.1 henl, Fort Worth .........

$

$

.3220
2.7014

2.6~Yl

2.69

1.04

I .OJ;/l

1.13

2.90
25.00
24.00
18.50
19.00
.25
.28
.27

1.77Vl
2.77
21.75
23.50
17.00
18.00
.25
.26
.29

I.BY
3.43
17.50
28.00
25.00
21.00

14.00

14.50

.36

.37

~

I.B6!4

cwt.
cwt.
cwt.
lb.
lb.
lb.
cOle
lb.

1f.l

.24
. 32
.32

ton, wheat, and peanut crops will be under production controls in 1954, and growers must be in compliance with acreage allotments and marketing quotas for these crops to be
eligible for price support benefits. However, a recent ruling
by the Secretary of Agriculture states that failure to comply
with production controls on anyone crop makes a grower
ineligible to receive price support only on that crop and does
not affect his eligibility with respect to others.
CASH RECEIPTS FROM FARM MARKETINGS
(In thousands of dollars)

September
State

1952

Arb:ona .. •.. $ 17.403
Louisiana ..• .
65,503
New Mexico.
12,724
Oklahoma .•.
76,477
Texas .•.... 260.649
Tolal ..... $452,756

1953

October

1952

$ 16,804 $ 29,853
56,763
77,843
10,759
42,637
56,740
75,692
208,787
298,252
$349,853

--$524,277

4

13 50

.39

b •.
b •.
b •.
cwt.
twl.

Marketable issues of Treasury certificates, notes, and bonds
amounting to $35,466,000,000 matured or were called for
redemption in 1953. Holders of the maturing or called securities exchanged $34,023,000,000, or 96 percent, for refunding issues and redeemed the remaining $1,442,000,000 for
cash. Maturities of other marketable issues included approximately $5,302,000,000 of tax anlicipation bills. During 1954,
Treasury financing requirements arising from maturities of
marketable issues which are currently outstanding will
amount to $53,716,000,000. This total includes the $5,901,'000,000 of Tax Anticipation Series certificates of indebtedness which mature March 22, 1954.

1953
$ 45,783

Cumulative receipts
January-October
1952

$ 2BO,396

1953

The Commodity Credit Corporation issued approximately
$:150,00),000 of 2I,4·percent certificates of interest to com·
mercial bank purchasers on December 17. The Corporation's
offering (announced on December 7) of participations in its
price support loans on 1952.crop cotton and a portion of
the 19.53 crop was oversubscribed by one and two·thirds
times the amount of certificates offered. Applications for up
to $50,000 were allotted in full; the basis of allotment for
amounts in excess of this total was 34.5 percent. The new
certificates mature August 2, 1954. A similar issue of 21/2percent certificates representing participations in a $360,000,000 pool of crop loans other than on cotton was sold by
the CCC on October 28_

On December 11 the Treasury invited holders of approximately $2,200,000,000 of Series F and G savings bonds
which mature in 1954 to exchange them at maturity for ~

$ 304,002

77,204

330,430

38,137
66,693
272,600

149,911
569,223

143,904
483,401

1,729,184

1,438,348

$500,417

$3,059,144

276,155

BANK DEBITS, END-Of-MONTH DEPOSITS
AND ANNUAL RATE OF TURNOVER OF DEPOSITS

$2,645 ,8 10

(Amounts in thousonds of dollars)

SOURCE, United States Department of Agriculture.

DEBITS I

Price supports through the Commodity Credit Corporation
will be continued at 90 percent of parity for 1954 crops of
cotton, rice, peanuts, and wool; while price supports at 85
percent of parity will be in effect for oats, barley, rye, and
grain sorghums. Flaxseed will be supported at 70 percent of
parity. Preliminary announcements by the Department of
Agriculture indicate the following minimum national average support prices for 1954 farm commodities: wheat, $2.20
per bushel; oats, 75 cents per bushel; barley, $1.15 per
bushel; grain sorghums, $2.28 per hundredweight; fla xseed.
$3.14 per bushel; and wool, 52.1 cents per pound.
Treasury cash borrowing in 1953
through the sale of marketable issues
amounted to $12,427,000,000, a
postwar record total. In addition to
raising $2,300,000,000 by increasing weekly nfferings of 91·day bills, the Treasury entered the
market on four other occasions for $3,426,000,000 through
the sale of intermediate- and long-term bonds and for $6,701,000,000 through tax anticipation certificates and bills.
These cash borrowing operations were concentrated rather
heavily in May, June, and July, principally in anticipation
of a large deficit in the second half of the calendar year.

DEPOSITS'

Percentage
change from
November

1953

City

Nov.

Annuol rate afturnover

Oct.

Nov.30,

1952 1953

1953

Nov.

Nov.

Ocl.

1953 1952 1953

ARIZONA

86,050

13.1

14.4

13.9

LOUISIANA
Monroe ............ .
Shreveport . .........
NEW MEXICO

49,872
193.909

2
11

-6
-B

42,205
175.857

14.5

13.9

14.2
12.7

16.1
16. 1

Ros w ell •.•.• . • .• ••• •

27,319

5

-6

29,478

11.3

11.4

12.6

52,242
-3
-6
120,B95
-9
-B
104,042
8
-2
127,128
-2
-7
137,209
-3
-8
12,914
2 -30
1,623,480
12
-6
206,725
3
-5
477,052
-5
-6
72,495
-3
-8
1,587,039
1 -11
18,99B
-9
1
110,800 -32
4
41.655
-7 -13
35,407
-1
-6
356,138
-5
2
17,805
-7
-9
52,833
8 -13
75,057
14 -11
76,245 -13
-7

52,565
100,829
97,326
97,3B9
107,345
22,304
890,899
123,607
332,9 19
80,944
1,10B,418
18,372
81,967
38,475
43,794
315,606
lB,113
57,322
65,727
99,168

12.0
14.5
12.B
15.7
15.5
7 .1
21.8
20.4
17.3
10.B
17.5
12.5
16.7
13.2
9.7
13.7
11.8
11.2
13.8
9.2

12.5
14.9
12.2
16.7
16.0
7.3

13.1
15.7
13.0
17.4
16.9

19.6
18.2
13.9
18.5
12.1
21.5
13.9
9.0
13.3
10.0
11.3
12.7
11.0

$4,086,679

16.8

16.9

Tucson .•........... . $

92,436 -12

-4

$

TEXAS
Abilene ............ .
Amorillo ............
Austin ..... .. . ..... .
B80u"1'Ionl . ••.•••..••

Corpus Christi ... .....
Corsicana .......... .
Dalla s ...... ... .. .. .
EI Paso . ........... .
Fort Worth ......... .
Ga lveston . ......... .
Hou;lon ... .... .. ... .
Loredo ............ .
lubbock . ... .. ......
Pori Arthur ••• •••••••

San Angelo .. ...... . .
San Antonio . ........
Texa rkana ' ... ...... .
Tyler .............. .

WaCO . ..........•..
Wichita FoUs .........

-----

TOlol-24 citiel . . . . ... . $5,669,695

2

-8

20.0

10.6
23.4
22.1
18.5
11.6
20.0
12.6
17.0

15.5
10..4
14.5
13.0

12.7
15.8
10.1
1 B.5

Debits to d emand deposit accounts of individuols, pa rtnerships, and corporations and
of s'ales ana politictJl subdi¥i.i.::ms.
t Demond d e posit occou:ifs of individuals, partnerships, and corpo rations and of stotes
and p olitico I subdivisiOn!!.
~ These figures ioclude on ly one bank in Texarkana, Texas. Tolal debits for all bonks in
Texarkana, TeJr.:ab~rkonsas. including two bonks locoted in the Eighth Dlslrlct, amounted to
$37,967,000 for the month of November 1953.
I

11

MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
CONDITION STATISTICS Of WEEKLY REPORTING
MEMBER BANKS IN LEADING CITIES

CONDITION OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS
(In thou lands of dotlon)

Eleventh Federal Reserve Distrid
De~,

15,

Dec. 15,

Total gold certiRcote relONes ............... $
Discounts for member bonks ••••• ...••.•.•..
Industrial advances ••• •. ......• ••••.••...••

U. S. Government securities ................ .

1953

74.4.718
38,238

769,540
16,000

$ 801,205
45,796

675

1,691

1,002,715
1,041,628

1,003,267

1,094,074
1,111.765
1,060,874

540
991,394
1,037,730
1,031,544

754,458

759,099

742,586

o

foreign loons on gold .... ........... • .....
Total earning assets ......•. . ..• •.•.•..•.• .
Member bank reserve deposits .•. . ..... ... ..
Federal Reserve notes in actuol circulation ..••.

(In Ihousands of dollars)

Nov. 15,

1952

1953

Item

o

o

other series of savings bonds. Individual owners of the rna·
turing securities may reinvest in Series E and H bonds up
to an annual limit of 20,000 for each of these series, Any
owner (individuals, as well as others) may reinvest in Series
J and K bonds, which have a combined annual limitation
of $200,000 issue price, Series E and H savings bonds yield
3 percent, compounded semiannually, if held 9 years, 8
months to maturity; Series J and K bonds yield 2.76 percent, compounded semiannually, if held 12 years to maturity, Of course, owners of Series F and G bonds wIDch
mature in 1954 may redeem them for cash.
The volume of spending by individuals and others in the
District during November, as reflected by debits to deposit
accounts reported by banks in 24 cities, declined 8 percent
from October but rose 2 percent over November 1952. The
October·to·N ovember reduction is more than accounted for,
~ however, by the fewer business days in November, as daily
, average charges to deposit accounts in that month were ap·
proximately 4 percent above those in October, The annual
rate of turnover of deposits in November was 16,8, as com·
pared with 18.5 in October and 16,9 in November 1952,

~

The principal changes in the condition of the Federal Re·
serve Bank of Dallas between November 15 and December
15 included increases in total earning assets and ll·K notes
in actual circulation and decreases in gold certificate reserves and member bank reser ve deposits. The rise in earn·
CONDITION STATISTICS Of All MEMBER BANKS

Eleventh Federal Reserve District
(In mililani of dollors}

No.... 25,
1953

Nov. 26,

1952

Oct. 28,
1953

Cosh in voulte .... . ... ...............•........
Ba lonces with bonks In the United Stales ........ ..
Ba lance, with banks In foreign countries· ..........
COloh items In procen of collection ••••••. ••• .. ••••
Otller assets e ..•.............................

$2,996
2,439
454
1,022
123
1,079
2
371
147

$2,835
2,487
430
1,067
132
1,082
1
331
139

$2,971
2,367
443
954
136
1,073
2
306
139

Item

ASSETS
Loans and discounts ..... .....•.. . ..•.... .. ... .
United Siotes Government obligations ••••...••...

Other securities ...............................
Reser ....s with Federal Reserve Bonk .•••......•..•

TOTAL ASSETSe ...•...• .....•. ,., . .. . , .....

8,633

8,504

~

LIABIlITIES AND CAPITAL
Demand deposih of bonks .•......•. , .......• ,.
Other demand deposits ........... , ............
Time deposits ................ , .. ,', ...•......

1,005
6,015
935

1,046
6,036
782

984
5,811
937

Tolal deposits ....... ..•. , ........... , ' ,. ,"
Borrowings e ........... , . , ...... , , . , . , ..• ... ,
Other liabilities e .............................
Total capital accounts· .. .•...... .. ... . ,",., ..

7,955
43
65
570

7,864

42
66
532

7,732
32
59
568

TOTAL lIABILIneS AND CAPITAL ACCOUNTSe ..

8.633

8,504

~

..-Estlmated.

Item

Dec. 16,
1953

Dec. 17.
1952

No ... 18.

1953

ASSETS
Commerciol. industrial, and agricultural loans.... 51,249,949 $1,193,714 $1,221,493
10.670
11,912
11,985
loons to brokers and dealers in securities ......
67.867
77,339
76,016
Other loons for purchasing or carrying securities.
130,136
134,078
134,687
Real estate loons ........... , ..•...........
11,623
16,838
9,039
loons to bonks ............................
410,835
363,802
408,325
All other loons ... ...... ........ ...........
Gross loons .............................
leu reserves and unallocated charge·ofh ....

1,892,511
17.803

1,777,812
18,655

1,869,985
17,803

Net loans ... . .... .. ... .................

-187.129
--

1,874,70 8

1,759,157

1,852,182

U. S. Treasury bills . ........................
U. S. Treasury certlAcate! of indebtedness . .. ...
U. S. Treasury noles .. . .. ......... ..........
U. S. Government bonds (inc. gtd. obligations) ..•
Other securities ........ , ..•................

259,150
208,425
672,627
196,425

243,000
149,864

216,637
701,410
180,439

174,596
263,214
210,386
661,021

195,862

Tota I investmenh ................ . .......
Cosh items in process of collection .............
Balances with banks in the United States .......
Ra la nces with bonks in foreign countries ..... ...
Currency and coin ... . .....................
Reserves with Federal Reserve Bank ...........
Other assets ....... . .. ............. .......

1,523,756
342,0 61
523,406
1,331
49,550
601,692
106,015

1,491,350
314.916
454,986

886
47,867
619,860
100,161

325,152
484,251
1,350
48,586
591,233
100,109

TOTAL ASSETS ........................

5,022,519

42: 89,183

4,907,942

LIABILITIES AND CAPITAL
Demand deposits
Individuals. partnership I, and corporations ....
United States Government .•...............
States and political subdivisions ..•.........
Banks in tile United State, .................
Bonks in foreign countries ............•....
Ce rtified and officen' checks, etc............

2,622,364
85,787
242,135
939,891
10,931
59,063

2,610,691
100,394
207,066
929,113
11,269
57,114

2,559,540
, 26,8045

Total demand deposits ..................

3,960,171

Time deposits
Individuals, portnershipl, and corporations ... ,
United States Government .................
Poslal savings ...........................
States and political subdivilions ...... .. ....
Bonks in Ihe U. S. and foreign countries ..... .
Total time deposits ................ .....
Total deposils ............•. , .... • ...
Bills payable, rediscounb. etc .................
AU other liabilities ................•........
Toiol capitol accounts ....... .. .............
TOTAL LIABILITIES AND CAPITAL ACCOUNTS

1,505,079

227,622
909,837
11,556

57,931

---3,915,647

3,893,331

108,704
1,788

431,878
10,386
450
57;765
870

501,964
10,144
450
84,613
1,938

636,043

501,349

599,109

.... 416,996

4,492,440

14,800
61;752
295,635

54,937
321,065

5,022,519 ~183.

4,907,942

514.957
10.144

450

",596,214
42,100

63,716
320,0489

39,500

ing assets reflects principally an increase in holdings of
United States Government securities and a less·than·offsetting
reduction in discounts for member banks, Federal Reserve
notes of this bank in actual circulation on December 15
amounted to $754,458,000 as compared with $759,099,000
on December 15, 1952.
Loans of the weekly reporting member banks in the District rose $22,526,000, or 1.2 percent, between November
18 and December 16, which contrasts with a mild reduction during the comparable 4 weeks of 1952. The expansion in loans for commercial, industrial, and agricultural
purposes accounted for somewhat more than the total increase and was weighted heavily by financing related to the
price support program of the Commodity Credit Corpora·
tion. In most weeks, construction firms, wholesale and reo
tail trade establishments, and manufacturers of metals and
metal products repaid substantial amounts of borrowings;
other manufacturing firms reduced their outstanding bank
indebtedness but on a somewhat smaller scale_ On the other
hand, sales finance companies, commodity dealers, and a
group of miscellaneous borrowers increased their borrowings
on balance.

MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW

12

encouraging in view of the curtailment in crude production
and refinery runs which has been necessary during the past ~
several months because of the overstocked position in the •
industry.

GROSS DEMAND AND TIME DEPOSITS OF MEMBER BANKS
Eleventh Federal Reserve District
(Averagel of daily flavrel. In thousands of dollars)

COMBINED TOTAL
Gross
Dote

demand

lime

RESERVE CITY BANKS
Gross
demand

COUNTRY BANKS

Gross
lime

demand

Time

November 1951.. $6,592,874 $686,144 53,101,804 $376,802 $3,491.070 $309,342
November 1952.. 7.025,207 780,156 3,338,376 421.427 3,666,831 358,729
Joly 1953 •...... 6,572,440 901,614 3,152,963 495,431 3,419,477 406,183
AugusI 1953 ..... 6.555,188 903,610 3,153,585 495,813 3,401,603 407,797
September 1953. 6,647.956 912,860 3,236,056 501,477 3,411,900 411,383
October 1953. . . 6.719,484 925,358 3,263,306 508,529 3,456,178 416,829
November 1953.. 6,948,849 936,175 3,369,875 516,162 3,578,974 420,013

Other changes in loans during the 4-week period include
relatively small increases in real estate and consumer-type
loans and reductions in loans to banks and loans for financing security transactions. On December 16, loans of the
weekly reporting member banks amounted to $1,892,511,. 000, reflecting an increase of $114,699,000, or 6.5 percent,
over the comparable year·earlier total.
The weekly reporting member banks increased their in·
vestments $18,677,000, or 1.2 percent, to a total of $1,523,.
756,000 in the 4 weeks ended December 16. Holdings of
Treasury bills rose $12,533,000, or 7.2 percent; investments
in Government bonds, which rose by a relatively smaller
amount, increased $11,606,000, or 1.8 percent_ Portfolios
of Treasury certificates of indebtedness and notes were reo
duced moderately.
Deposit trends during the 4 weeks included increases of
$66,840,000, or 1.7 percent, in demand deposits and $36,934,000, or 6.2 percent, in time deposits. The expansion
of demand deposits reflects principally gains in the accounts
of individuals and businesses and in interbank deposits. De·
mand deposits of the United States Government were drawn
down sharply. The marked rise in time deposits was weighted
heavily by an increase in the accounts of states and political
subdivisions but also included a substantial increase in depos·
its of individuals, partnerships, and corporations. On Decem·
ber 16, total deposits of these banks were about 4 percent
above a year earlier.

NEW PAR BANK

The Ruidoso State Bank, Ruidoso, New Mexico, a
newly organized nonmember bank located in the tern·
tory served by the EI Paso Branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, was added to the Par List on its
opening date December 1, 1953. The officers are : T. B.
Hood, Executive Vice President and Cashier; 0, !,
Hull, Vice President; and Lois A. Tucker, Assistant
Cashier.

Continued growth in the Nation's
petroleum industry in 1954, although
at a slower rate than in most other
postwar years, is indicated by the
recent forecasts of the Bureau of
Mines. The outlook for continued expansion, however, is

The total demand for petroleum in 1954 is forecast at
8,340,000 barrels per day, or 3.4 percent higher than the
estimated 1953 total. In 1953, total demand increased an
estimated 4.5 percent. Exports are expected to decline about
20 percent in 1954, but the decrease will be more than off·
set by a gain of 4.6 percent in the daily average domestic de·
mand. Although 1954 may show a further net increase in
stocks, the rise probably will be substantially less than in
either of the two preceding years.
To meet the expected increase in demand, a further ex·
pansion in total new supplies of 173,000 barrels per day wHl
be required, which is less than half the rise that occurred
in 1953. The Bureau of Mines anticipates that 90,000 bar·
rels per day of the additional new supplies will come from
domestic crude production; 45,000 barrels per day, from
natural gasoline and other light oils; and the remaining
38,000 barrels per day from imports. Thus, domestic crude
production will increase 1.4 percent in 1954, or to 6,556,000 barrels per day; production of natural gasoline and
other light oils will rise 6.8 percent, or to 710,000 barrels
pel' day; and imports will increase 3.6 percent, or to 1,096,·
000 barrels per day.
Despite the outlook for further growth next year, the •
petrolemn situation in November and early December continued to be characterized by relatively heavy stocks and
price easiness. Mild weather in November held down the
demand for heating oils, although demand picked up substantially around mid· December under the stimulus of mark·
edly colder weather in the North and East.
Demand for the four major refined products at refineries
and bulk terminals during the 5 weeks ended December 19
averaged an estimated 6,761,000 barrels per day. Although,
at this level, demand was down about 3 percent from the
corresponding weeks of 1952, the decrease from a year
earlier was smaller than that of the preceding 5·week period.
During the 5 weeks ended December 19, gasoline was the
only product to show a year·to·year increase, with a 4.percent gain. The demand for distillate fuel oil was off 7
percent from a year earlier; kerosene demand was dOlVn
6 percent; and residual fuel oil showed a 10-percent loss.
Prices of refined products, with the exception of residual
fuel oil, continued to show wealrness during November and
early December. GuH Coast refineries posted small reduc·
tions in their prices for regular gasoline. Marketers on the
Atlantic seaboard generally announced decreases in the
prices of both regular and premium gasoline, while shading
of gasoline prices in midwestern markets continued. More·
over, distillate fuel oil and kerosene prices were reduced
about 712 cent per gallo" in east coast markets. However,
residual fuel oil prices in the Middle West rose appreciably.
The price of ' 0. 6 fuel oil, Oklahoma Group 3 basis, has
increased about 50 cents per barrel since J uoe.

4

MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW

Crude imports during the 5 weeks amounted to 592,000
barrels per day, as compared with 615,000 barrels per day
in the corresponding 5 weeks a year earlier.

CRUDE O il, DAilY AVERAGE PRODUCTION
(In thousands of barrels)

Change from
November

Area

1953 1

ElEVENTH DiSTRICT ••... . ...

2,931.1
2,622.9
584.8
969.3
238.6
76.6
753.6
201.4
106.7
3,275.9
6,207.0

Texas ......... . . . .. . .. .
Gulf Coast ............
West Texas . . .........
East Texas (proper) .....
Panhandle •. •. • . . ..... .

Rest of State . • ........ .
Southeastern NeW Mexico . .
Northern Louisiana . .. . . .. .
OUTSIDE ElEVENTH DISTRICT.

UNITED STATES ••••••••.. • •
SOURCES:

I

No,¥ember
1952 2

October

3,244.6
2,959.7
667.2
1,184.9
253.4
72.7
781.5
170.6

3,046.2
2,740.9

1953 1

610.7

1,031.7
244 .9
75.-4

778.2
200.5

114.3

104.8

3,242.4
6,.487.0

3,194.5
6,240.7

November
1952

October
1953

-313.5
-336.B
-82.4
-215.6

-115.1
_118.0
-25 ,9
_62.4

-lA.8

-6.3
1.2
-24.6
.9
1.9
81.4
-33.7

3.9
-27.9
30.8
-7.6
33.5
-280.0

Estimated from Americon Petroleum Institute weekly repor",

3 United States Bureau of Mines.

Aggregate stocks of maj or refined products declined mod·
erately during the first week of December, but stocks at
mid· December were still substantially higher than a year
earlier. Both gasoline and distillate stocks on December 19
were 17 percent above a year earlier, and stocks of kerosene
and residual fuel oil were up 13 percent and 3 percent,
respectively,

Crude oil stocks, after reaching a peak at mid·October,
subsequently have shown a declining trend. On December
19, crude stocks in the Nation amounted to 277,200,000
barrels, or about 10,700,000 barrels less than the October
high. Almost one· half of the decrease was in stocks of Dis·
• trict origin. Despite the recent decline, the Nation's crude
, stocks at mid·December wcrc still 5,400,000 barrels higher
than a year earlier. Stocks of District origin, however, were
3,800,000 barrels less than a year ago.

•

13

Crude oil production in the District during the first part
of December continued the downward trend which bas been
evident since August. District production in the first 19 days
of December averaged an estimated 2,906,000 barrels per
day, which is 26,000 barrels less than the November rate
and 392,000 barrels less than in December 1952. It appears,
however, that the declining trend will be haltcd in January.
Although the Texas Railroad Commission held the number
of permitted state·wide producing days in January at 17,
the same as in December, an increase in the number of pro·
ducing days in the Spraberry trend from 11 to 17, together
with new wells coming into production, may be expected to
raise District output moderately.
The downward movement in crude production in the
Nation apparently ceased in December, with daily average
production during the first part of the month amounting to
6,222,000 barrels, or 15,000 barrels more than in November.
This rate, however, is 412,000 barrels per day less than in
Dccember 1952. The year·to·year decline in the Nation's pro·
duction is largely accounted for by the decrease in District
production.
Imports of crude oil and refined products during the 5
weeks ended December 19 were at about the same level as in
the preceding 5 weeks. Residual fu el oil imports were up, but
crude imports declined for the second successive 5·week
period and averaged lower than at any time since February.

After rising somewhat in November, refinery runs in both
the District and the Nation were at a reduced level during
the first part of December. Crude runs to refinery stills in
the District during the first 19 days of December averaged
an estimated 1,995,000 barrels per day, as compared with
2,039,000 barrels per day in November and 2,076,000 bar·
rels per day in December 1952. In the Nation, refinery crude
runs in the first part of December averaged 6,929,000 bar·
rels. This is about 83,000 barrels less than the November
average and 23,000 barrels less than in December a year
earlier.
Operable refining capacity (that is, refining capacity ex·
clusive of that which is shut down in need of major repairs)
in this District rose 6.5 percent during the year ended Sep·
tember 30, 1953, and on that date totaled 2,300,000 barrels
per day, according to a recent survey of the American Pe·
trolcum Institute. In thc Nation the increase amounted to
6.9 percent. Further substantial growth in refining capacity
in both the District and the Nation during the next 12 months
is indicated by the survey. Nevertheless, the projected ex·
pansion in each case is somewhat less than in the period just
completed.
Most of the additions to the refining capacity in the Dis·
trict during the past year, as well as the anticipated gains
in 1954, center on the Texas Gulf Coast. On September 30,
1953, the Texas Gulf Coast had an operable refining capa·
city of 1,867,000 barrels daily, which accounted for the
major portion of the District's refining capacity and repre·
sented the largest concentration of refining capacity in the
Nation. The operable refining capacity on the Texas Gulf
Coast constituted 24 percent of the national total.
As 1953 came to an end, the states
in the Eleventh Federal Reserve Dis·
trict could look back upon another
year of industrial advancement.
While there were fewer multimillion·
dollar plants established in 1953 than in 1952, there was a
steady gain in small·plant development. It also is significant
that many of tbese small plants were located in towns where
there had been few, if any, industrial facilities, Of course,
this situation has diversified the economic base of such towns.
Since the Korean truce, the establishment of new defense
facilities has slackened, and production and employment
in the existing ones have been reduced. For example, through
October the ordnance and aircraft manufacturers in the Dis·
trict had curtailed employment by nearly 11,000 workers.
However, gains in the primary metals, apparel, and chem·
ical industries kept District manufacturing employment
ahead of 1952 for the first 10 months of 1953.
In Texas, employment in the transportation equipment
industry - which includes automobile, aircraft, and ship.
building companies - has fluctuated widely over the past

MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW

14

BUILDING PERMITS

========================================I=I=m=O="===1=9=53~----~ 41
I~

TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT
EMPLOYMENT IN TEXAS
1950·1953
THOUSANDS

Perc.ntage
chang. in
va luation
from 11
months
1952

Percentage
chonge in
valuation from

THOUSANDS

••

••

November 1953
NlJITIber

Oty

LOUISIANA
Shreveport ••• •

Nov. Oct.
1952 1953 Numb er

Valuation

275

2,300,170 194

-3

3,674

109

2,972,531 244
898,648 - 7
1,391,750 -8
489,377
42
1,723,945
24
9,560,059 -34
834,500 -29
2,801,418
23
112,912-63
13,803,091
34
1,649,170
31
214,094
4
2,674,385 -3
495,389 -11
435,806 114

790
-25
-4 3
-7 8
-22
35
-19
- 18
-55
39
59
-60
-21
-53
-16

1,147
2,916
2.721
2,470
4,996
19,628
3,152
8,538
1.D62
10,944
2,539
1,675
16,716
3,435
766

9

86,379

Valuation
$ 21,798,325

20

10,132,825
17,934,3 17
25,821 ,829
105,812,600
18,333.799
40,638,502
4,586,475
121.223,790
15.918.936
3,093.955
45,221,865
10,160,325
6,710.024

28
-21
12
12
32
_4
29
-3
-27
15
-16
-19
12
-20
-63

$48 4,155,127

2

TEXAS
Abilene •••••••

154

Amarillo ••••••
Austin ••••••• •

211
184
381
1,521
206
544
98
811
148
114
1,002
184
80

Beaumont •••••

Corpln Christi ••
Dollas ••••••••
EI Paso • • •• •••
Fort Worth ••••

Golvoston •••••
HOlulan •••• •••

••

1950

1951

SOURC;ES -Ttull E ..,ht'p'mu!

1953

1952

Lubbock ••• •••
Port Arthur • •• •
San Antonio •••

••

Waco •• ...• • •
Wichita Falls•••

Tolol •• • • ••••••• 6,022 $42,357,245

C~ml .. J
OfI

8

28,611,101
8,156,459

U.s. lurlaY of L•• or $11' 1
"k,.

4 years, From January 1950 to December 1951, employment
in this category increased 93 percen t, but from the latter
date until November 1953, it decEned 11 percent. These fluc·
tuations stem primarily from changes in defense contracts
and automobile production schedules. Transportation equip.
ment companies employ nearly 13 percent of all manufac·
turing workers in Texas. In the number of employees, this
industry is exceeded only by the food industry, which em·
ploys 14 percent.
From September to October, employers in the five states
of the District added 9,500 nonagricultural workers, to raise
the total to 3,868,500, or 1 percent above October 1952, A
gain of nearly 13,000 in government and construction em·
ployment more than offset moderate losses in service, min·
ing, and manufacturing employment. Major declines in trans·
portation equipment and machinery, except electrica l, in·
dustries accounted for most of the decrease of 2,900 in man·
ufacturing employment, but manufacturing employment in
October, totaling 728,800, was still 1 percent above Octo·
ber 1952.
NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT
Five Southwestern States 1

Percenl chang e
Oct. 1953 from

Number of persons
Type of employment

October
1953p

Total nonagricultural
wage and salary workers •• 3,868,500
Monufacturlng •••••••••••
728,800
Nonma nufactlJfing •••••••• 3,139,700
226,900
Mining ••••••••••••••••
Construction . •••• . •••••
295,200
Tronlporto tlon and public
41 0. 100
utillti.s •••• •• • ••• •• ••
977,500
Trade •••• ••••• ••••• ••
150,200
Anonce ••••••••• . •••••
447,1 00
Servicfl! • • •••••••••••••
Gayernment •••• •• • ••••
632,700

October
1952

September
19 53

Ocl.
1952

Sepl .
1953

3,828.300
719.300
3,109,000
221,100
298,000

3,859,000
731,700
3,127,300
230,200
288,700

1.1
1.3
1.0
2.6
-.9

.2
-.4
.4
-1.4
2.3

412,600
971,700
'''2,400
439.900
623,300

409,000
974.100
150,200
449,000
626.100

_.6
.6
5.5
1.6
1.5

.3
.3
0
_.4
1.1

Unofficial estimates of total nonagricultural employment
in District states show further gains in November and De·
cember, bringing the end·of.year total to ahout 3,9l0,000,
or slightly more than a year ago, Manufacturing employ.
ment in December is indicated at 727,500, or about 4,600
above a year earlier.
Averaue weekly earnings of Texas manufacturing em·
ployees increased further from September to October, with •
the figure raised to $71.40, which is $2.60 above the average
in October 1952. However, November earnings declined to
$71.23, compared with $69,50 a year earlier. Average weekly
hours worked by these employees rose from 41.5 in September to 42.0 in October but decreased to 41.9 in November,
compared with 42.9 hours per week in November 1952.
Nearly all the October·to·November decline in average weekly
earnings occurred in nondurable goods manufacturing, On
the other hand, during the past year the largest gains in average weekly earnings were in nondurable goods manufacturing, especially in chemicals and food·processing industries,
Unemployment in Texas remained unchanged from Sep.
tember to October. The total for October was about 107,000
workers, or 3.9 percen t of the nonagricultural labor force,
As was true in each of the earlier months of 1953, unem·
ployment in October was above that of the comparable month
in 1952.
VALUE OF CONSTRUCTION CONTRACTS AWARDED
(In thousands of dollars)

1 Arizona, louisiana, New M.Jtica, Oklahoma, and Te Aas.
p_Preliminory.
SOURCEI State employment agenci.s.

January
Area and typ s

Nove "l'lber
1953p

---

Nov • ."ber
1952

Oct.,ber
1953

1953

November

1952

99,695 $ 113,3 15 $ 1,174,589 $ 1,276,360
ElEVf'.ITH DI5TRICT .... S 111,977 $
57,386
Resids"IliaJ. • • . . . . . .
31,120
39.314
469,77 4
527,855
All other. . • . • • • . • . •
80,857
60,381
55,929
704,815
7 48,505
U\.IITE:> STATES' ••••.• 1,394,050 1,248,803 1,892,388 16,143,699 15,307,552
Re;idantiol. • • . • . • . •
611,857
528,429
634,582
6,173,332 6,228,924
An other •.•...•.•.•
782,193
720,374 1,257,806
9,970,367 9,078,628
I 37 states easf of the Rocky Mountains.
p -Preliminary.
SOURCE: F. W. Dodge Corporation.

«

15

MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW
.. Construction activity in the District was at record or near• record levels during 1953, and the volume of construction
put in place probably was at an all-time high_ However, the
value of construction contracts awarded in the first 11 months
of the year was 8 percent less than that for the comparable
period of 1952, indicating the probability of some slight
easing off in construction activity in 1954.
Construction contracts awarded in the District in November are valued at an estimated $111,977,000; this is about
the same as in October and is 12 percent greater than the
total for November 1952. Residential awards are valued at
$31,120,000, which is down sharply from October and is
one of the three lower monthly totals since 1951. Other
awards in Kovember are valued at 80,857,000, reflecting
a year-to-year gain of 34 percent_
Prices of construction materials continued to rise during
1953. Indexes of wholesale prices in September, the latest
month for which figures are available, show that gains of
4 percent or more from a year earlier were made by structural clay products, flat glass, building paper and board,

concrete ingredients, concrete products, prepared asphalt
roofing, and gypsum products. Smaller increases are reported for millwork, plywood, heating equipment, fabricated
structural metal products, and plumbing equipment. Costs of
construction machinery and labor also rose further. Lumber prices, on the other hand, were slightly lower than a year
earlier.
DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION AND STOCKS OF COTTON
(Boles)
AugUst-October
October
Area

1953 l

Odober
1952

CONSUMPTION
Total
Texas mills • •••••••••.•

U.S. mills .... .. ... . . . .
Daily average
Texas mills ••••• • ...•..

U. S. mills ••• ••.•......
STOCKS, U. 50-End of period
Consuming establishments .• •

14,509
872,128

14,735
915,568

586
35,237

595
36,992

September

1953!

11.59 1
38.362
38,116
702,425 2,300,402 2,396,224

594
36,022

1,506,192 1,300.832 1,296,811

Public storage and
compresses ........... . 9,406,484 6,753,266 5,852,917
I Five weeks ended October 31 .
, Four weeks ended September 26.
SOURCEI United States Bureau of the Census,

This se oson last se050n

598
35,804

594
37,328