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MONGJrHL'lC REVIEW FED ERA L RES E R V E BANK o F DALLAS DALLAS,TEXAS Vol. 38, No.1 January 1, 1953 HIGH LIGHTS OF 1952 Percentage Change from 1951 -10 -5 o ~--~~---,~--~----~----~ • Department Store Sales • Bank Debits (24 Cities) • Manufacturing Employment • Cmde Petroleum Production • New Wells Drilled • Construction Contracts Awarded • Residential Contracts Awarded • N onres idential Contracts Awarded • Cash Receipts from Farm Marketings • Crop Production • Livestock and Livestock Products • Member Bank Deposits • Member Bank Loans (December 31) (December 31) • Member Bank Resources (December 31) • Eleventh Federal Reserve District • Texas (Eleventh District figures not available) This publication was digitized and made available by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' Historical Library (FedHistory@dal.frb.org) 2 MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW HIGH-LEVEL PROSPERITY IN TH E SOUTHWEST At the end of one year and the beginning of another, it is probably natural and desirable to review the economic events of the past 12 months and to attempt to look a bit into the future to determine, if possible, what the new year may hold in store, economically speaking. The record for 1952 in the Southwest, as well as in the Nation , is very favorable ; in fa ct, new high levels of activity were attained in several of the major economic areas. Potential inflationary forces were held reasonably well in check, and a relatively high degrcc of stability prevajled. The principal disrupting inAuences during the year were associated with strikes in such major industrics as oil and steel and with the severe drought that affected the agriculture of the Eleventh Federal Reserve District, as well as other sections of the country. Several strong forces contributed significantly to the high level of economic activity in the Nation during 1952. Fcderal Government expenditures for national sccurity rose on an annual-rate basis from about $44,000,000,000 in the fourth quarter of 1951 to slightly more than $50,000,000,000 in the last quarter of 1952. Expenditures for new plant and equipment in 1952 were about $27,500,000,000, as compared with about $26,300,000,000 in 1951. Total new construction, including residential, other private construction, and Federal, state, and local projects, averaged about $110,000,000 higher per month during 1952 than in 1951. This resulted in a total volume of new construction in excess of 32,000,000,000 for the year. ReAecting full production and full employment at rising wage rates, personal income rose to approximately $265,000,000,000, or over $10,000,000,000 more than in thc preceding year. Despite high income taxes an d su hstantia I net savings, personal consumption cxpenditures during 1952 ran consistently abovc those of the preceding year. In the fourth quarter of 1952, such expenditures were about 8218,000,000,000 on an annual-rate basis, or about $8,000,000,000 larger than in the comparable period in 1951. Operating within this favorable and stimulative national economic atmosphere and, in addition, reAecting growth factors that are inherent in the resources and economic potentialities of the region, the southwestern arca co ntinued to expand and diversify its economi c activity during the year just closed. Important sources of income to the area, such as petrolewn, mannfacturing, construction, and trade and services, rose above 1951 levels. Only agriculture, severely aITected hy the long drought in large parts of the Districtand especially in Texas-failed to show a favorablc comparison with the results of the preceding year. The decline in agricultural income, however, does not appear to have been so large as to have offset the gains from other income sources. Consequently, preliminary estimates of total income payments point toward an increase over 1951 of more than 5 percent in Texas and a somewhat larger gain in the fivc states lying wholly or partly in the Eleventh Federal Reserve District. DAILY AVERAGE CRUDE OIL PRODUCT ION ELEVENTH FEDERAL RESERVE OISTRICT MILLION S 0' IARIIICU OAI 4 ". 0 LUGI'" 01" IAJUt[l' DAILV 3 .3 3 .0 V1 I --' " ''II! 2 .5 .0 SOURCE , U.S.llu , •• M J r '--"- -----, ~ '901 .". ' A " 4 .0 J 3.3 ..,.;.. I -' .. ' _ I --. ....... - \1l~:r I M - 3.0 2.3 2.0 A S 0 N w" Mlftu . One of the major sources of income in tbe Eleventh District is the production, refining, and related activities in the petroleum industry. During 1952, crude oil production set a ncw rccord about 2 percent above the 1951 total. The increase in production of crude was held to a very small amount- the smallest since 1946, with the exception of the recession year of 1949- by a combination of factors. In the first place, production during 1951 had been very high- up 26 percent, partly in response to the shutdown of the Iranian oil fields. Secondly, in ]951, relativcly mild weather which reduced the demand for fuel oil, some decline in exports, and relative business stability tended to moderate the rising trend. Finally, the oil strike in the second quarter of the year sharply curtailed production during May and restricted production during the following 3 months. ~ ,. Refinery activity in the District has kept race with the increased tempo of crude production. Except during the months or th e oil strike, refin ing compared favorably in volume with the corresponding months of 1951. As a result, crude runs to refinery stills in the District were about 2 percent higher in 1952 than in the preceding year. As refinery activity recovered sharply followin g the oil strike, stocks of major refined products were gradually built up and at the end of the year were moderately abovc thc year-end totals of 1951. The ~~aTch for npw sou rces of petrolewn in the Eleventh Federal Reserve District was active in 1952, restricted prilIlarily by the shortage of oil field tubular goods that was a consequence of the steel strike in midsummer. During the first 7 months of the year, new well completions were substantially larger than in comparable months in 1951, reBecting an increase or about 12.5 percent. In the remaining mo nths of 1952, completions ran under 1951 figures, although 4 3 MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW TOTAL WELL COMPLETIONS ELEVENTH FEDERAL RESERVE OISTRICT HUMerI! OF WELLS NUMB ill Of" WE LLS 2,50 0 2,500 t,Oo 0 2 ,DOD ~ljJ~c-r/;"'i\11-------T "'" , 1,50 0 \- , ,'I ........ ' I ¥. \\,t.-19~1 I' I I,500 ~ I 1952 1,00 0 1,000 50 0 .00 F SOUIICE ' Wgrl~ .. A A lit SON 0 0 11. a gradual recovery occurred from the year's low reached in August. Preliminary estimates indicate that total completions in the District in 1952 were almost 20,000, or about 3 percent above the 1951 total. The process of expanding industrial activity in the District and increasing the diversification of the southwestern economy was extended further during 1952_ Unfortunately, neither a regional index of industrial activity nor neatly packaged figures totaling industrial output and plant equipment expenditures are available_ Data that are available, however, clearly indicate that manufacturing and industrial activi ty have continued to grow in importance as sources of income to the area_ One of the useful general measures of industrial activity is the number of workers employed in manufacturing. Each of the five states lying wholly or partly in the Eleventh District showed appreciable increases in manufacturing employment during the past 12 months, as the total rose from 683,700 in December 1951 to about 732,200 in December 1952, an in- crease of about 7 percent. Between these two dates, Louisiana added about 18,700 manufacturing workers, or 12 percent, to its employment; Texas, 15,800, or 4 percent ; Oklahoma, 6,600, or 8 percent; Arizona, 5,200, or 20 percent; and New Mexico, 2,200, or 15 percent. Inasmuch as a very substantial part of the industrial and manufacturing activity in southwestern states other than Texas li es outside of the limits of the Eleventh Federal Reserve District and since figures are not available for parts of states, the picture for the District is perhaps best reflected by the number of manufacturing workers employed in Texas. This total, except for temporary and short seasonal periods, rose steadily during the past 2 years. Average employment in manufacturing in Texas throughout 1952 was about 5 percent above the midmonth averages for 1951. Moreover, employment in manufacturing in Texas each month during 1952 substantially exceeded the figure reported for the comparable month in the preceding year. Very large expenditures in the District for new plants and for modernization of equipment not only have lncreased potential industrial output but may be assumed to have increased productivity per man-hour as newer machines and methods are being drawn into production . This development, associated with the larger number of workers employed in manufacturing, clearly indicates a gain in manufacturing output in excess of the increase in the number of workers. NONAGRICULTURAL WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS-TEXAS WILLJOHS OF PeRS LLIOHS 3. "'0 01'" '[!':SONS 2. • .' 2.5 1'152 I 2. '" 3.0 , I 1 01-_--- ..)-- ----- ~i - I 1 I I· I ~ __ • _--------- -- 2.0 195[ MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT IN TEXAS I .5 M THOUSANOS OF PCIISONS M I A o 1 N 0 THOUSANDS OF P[IISQJrlS .00 500 1952--.. 0 ' 40 A I .. , ... 1 ... 1 .., 1 __ _'---------~-- L-I -l -- l..-- ""--1 951 400 While a general industrial growth has occurred in the District that has not been confined to onc or another indnstry, the most significant developmellts have occurred in such growth industries as the lighter meta Is and the chemicals and industries associated with petroleum. As pointed out elsewhere in this Review, this District now accounts for about 16 percent of the Nation's capacity for the production of aluminum, while Texas had received 19 percent of the certificates of necessity granted prior to mid-October for chemical expansion projects. Growing industrial activity also is reAected in the increased electrical generaling capacity of the area. During 1952, electric generating capacity in the region MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW increased 7.5 percent, while the increase in Texas is reported to have been almost 6 percent. DEPARTMENT STORE SALES ElEVENTH FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT Increased manufacturing and industrial activity, however, has not been thc sole source of larger employment. Total non· agricultural wage and salary workers in the five states in the area rose about 4 percent during the year, an increase approximately equal to that for Texas. A larger volume of trade and service activity and of other nonmanufacturing pursuits has been characteristic of the District. 1 40~-;'---~-+--~---+--l--I 130~-+--~--""""/-- ,,-----~-+--='-__i The value of construction contracts awarded in the Dis· trict, based on preliminary and i1lcomplete figures, probably exceeded the total for 1951 by about 1 percent. Residential c01lstruction-including contracts for homes, apartment buildings, hotels, dormitories, and other types of shelterwas less than 2 percent under the 1951 total, whereas non· residential awards- including all other types of construction - were probably in the neigbborhood of 4 percent higher VALUE OF CONSTRUCTION CONTRACTS AWARDED ELEVENTH FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT SOUACE. f . W 0040' CO'Pfl,llo• . . than the total reported in 1951. A year ago, total constr uction contracts awarded in the Eleventh District were about $1,330,000,000, whereas for 1952 it seems that the total will exceed 51,350,000,000. In contrast with the trend for the Nation, department store sales in the Eleventh District during 1952 ran ahead of com· parable months in 1951 during most of the year. The result was that the cumulative increase in department store sales during 1952 in the Eleventh District was about 6 percent. While these figures do not reflect necessarily the trend of reo tail trade during the year, they do indicate, when considered with other information, a somewhat higher level of consumer spending during 1952. Estimates of the Bureau of Business Research of The Uni· versity of Texas through the r,rst 10 months of ]952 show a cumulative increase in total retail sales of about 1 percent. According to lhis sourc(" sllch major outlets for retail trad e as food, apparel, and furniture and household applia1.lce stores, department stores, filling stations, and eating and drinkin g places showed appreciable cumulative increases over the 10·month period in 1951. Declines in retail sales were notable primarily at automotive stores and at stores selling lumber, building materials, and hardware. The active volume of DEPARTMENT STORE STOCKS ElEVENTH FEDERAL RESERVE DIS TRICT " 15 0 After a somewhat slow start early in the year, residential construction gained strength and during the last half of 1952 ran substantially above year·earlier figures. Nonresidential construction showed more consistent strength durin g 1952, with the volume reported in most months running somewhat above 1951 figures . The most significant increase in residential construction occurred in the number of one· family dwell· ings built for sale or rent, willie the largest increases in non· residential construction were in the utility and public works categories. Substantial increases in street and highway con· struction and in the construction of pipelines were particularly signiflcant. In addition, a number of large industrial plants involving substantial expenditures contributed toward maintaining the high-level construction totals. -"g. 100 1 ~'r--~ J l " ~'-", I = .::C _~ _ -, rlJ---. h '' 194 RC[NT PERCE " I 50 1 J 1 95 , 14 o til'l o ~ e- ,' I 40 ...' . / ~ ~ I 30 ', I 12 0 I I 10 10 0 I • A M A o I N 20 I 10 I 0 00 MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW retail trade reported 011 a random basis by merchants, together with the favorable holiday buying season, would seem to indicate that 1952 as a whole will compare quite favorably with the record of 1951. 5 ghum grain production in Texas also was substantially lower during 1952 than a year earlier. These declines in production were offset to some exten t, however, by a rice crop whlch reached record proportions, a substantially larger wheat crop, and a larger production of oats_ Bank debits-also an in dicator of the level of spendingwere about 9 percent higher in 1952 than in the preceding year, according to reports received Irom banks in 24 cities of the District. AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION - TEXAS 193!5-39-IOO PERCENT PE flC(NT 170 Whereas in 1951 the probl em of excessive inventories was an important one during much of the year, that has not been tht: case in 1952_ Inventories at department stores were brou ght reasonably well in line by the latter part of 1951 and have been maintained in a conservative relationship to sales sin~e that time_ During the past few months a moderate increase in inventories has occurred as retailers have tended to advance their commitments slightly_ On the whole, however, orders and j nventory commitments are being held to a conservative basis_ In view of the serious and prolonged nature of the drought that has afT ected large parts of the Eleven th District, the probable declines in total agricultural production and in cash farm income are less marked than might have been expected_ On the other hand, it is also possible that damage reSulting from the drou ght may have been more severe than the relatively moderate decline in figures would indicate_ Undoubtedly, ranges and pastures in large parts of the western half of the District and in southern parts of the region have suffered much damage_ Heavy rains, favorable weather, and perhaps in many cases pasture-rebuilding work will be necessary to restore the ranges to their former produetivity_ Likewise, large marketings of beef cattle have had adverse efT ects upon basic herds, in many cases_ Agricultural data for the five states lying wholly or partly ill the Eleventh District indicate total produciton at approximately the 1951 level, with a slight decline in the production of crops being almost offset by a very small increase in the production of livestock and livestock products_ This picture, however, is not wholly representative of conditions in the Eleventh Federal Reserve District, for in several instances favorable production in states other than Texas is outside of this District, e_g_ , a very large wheat crop in the part of Oklahoma that is in the Kansas City Federal Reserve District and large rice and sugar cane crops in the part of Loui siana lying in the Atlanta Federal Reserve District. Consequently, the production and cash farm income pattern representative of Texas perhaps more nearly approximates the distri ct situation_ It is estimatefl that the production of crops in Texas probably declined about 7 percent during 1952 as compared with the preceding year, while the production of livestock and 1ivestock products rose about 1 percent. These estimates indicate a decline in all farm commodity production in the neighborhood of about 3.5 percent. From the standpoint of production, the most serious decline occurred in the case of cotton, with the 1952 crop being estimated at about 3,750,000 bales, as compared with 4,074,000 bales produced in 1951. Sor- 170 f 1601--- +--+-+--+-+---'-- +--+-/ \;---C.- 0-P5'---I 160 - --'- 150 / ! '"0 L 1vESTOel': 1401----1'-+---1"'___.. --, -.--f-+---1f-j :_- ·i-I-~ I3Of--l-- f i f 120f--l/110 100 \ I I40 V I - -f"'--:--'-- \\ /: ~\.!./V\'----.--~.~ 'ZO ". .,/)-11-4S-,·~! ~ -Sp-130 110 .~ ; \-~ ---i " 100 . 9~~.o",,&-~.k-,~.~._,&-~~.h.__..&_~__.&_~-~~)·iO As ranges deteriorated due to the drought, ranchers moved large lIumb ers of cattle to slaughter, to feed lots, and to better graz ing lands in eastern parts of the District and in other states_ Indicative in part of this heavier-than-usual movement of cattle is the fact that during the first 10 months of 1952 approximately 17 percent more _cattle were slaughtered in Texas than during the comparable 10-month period ill 1951. Likewise, the increase in the number of calves moving to slaughter during the same period was about 16 percent over the comparable months in 1951, while the movement of sheep and hogs was up 9 percent each. Figures covering the shipment of cattle from Texas to feed lots in the Midwest and to better grazing lands in other areas are not compiled, but such estimates and figures as are available on a scattered basis indicate an unusually heavy movement. Average prices received by farm ers in Texas for farm products declined appreciably during 1952, with most of the decl ine, however, occurring in the latter half of the year. Beef cattle prices, which had been under some pressure during the last part of 1951, resumed their downward movement in the late spring and early summer of 1952 and at the end of the year were about 30 percent under figures of a year earlier. This substantial decline, however, based upon average prices for all beef cattle, was not typical of the price movement for Prime and Choice grades, which showed a much more moderate reduct ion_ Feeder and stocker cattle and lower grades of slaughter cattle suffered sharper declines_ Cotton prices were relatively favorable during most of the harvest season but then declined rather sharply in the fourth quarter and late in December were at about the support leveL Final results of cash farm income for Texas for the year 1952 will not be available for some months, but preliminary figures covering the first 10 months of the year seem to MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 6 PRICES RECEIVED BY FARMERS-TEXAS 1940-1 0 0 5~gr ' ----------.-----------.---------~'~[ '·~ ~~OO '1-- - - - - - - - - - . - - - - - - - - - - - 1 - - ----------1 200 1001--- -- - - - - - - - + - - - - - - - - - - +- - - - - - - - - --1 100 O'~--'1~9.,50-----4---.1~95~1-----4----,~97.52----~O point to only a moderate decline for the year as a whole. Reccipts from livestock marketings were not down as much as might have been expected, in view of the substantial price dcclinc that occurred. Larger marketings tended to offset partly the effect of the price decline, in so far as cash receipts were conccrncd. In addition, during 1952 an unusually large proportion of thc cotton crop was marketed early and, con· sequently, received the advantage of the somewhat higher prices that prcvailed during July, August, and September. Moreover, a largc carry·over of 1951 cotton was marketed in the early months of 1952. Other factors tending to sup· port cash r eceipts were the record rice crop at relatively high prices and a wheat crop much larger than tl,e 1951 produc. tion, also at favorable prices. The l'esult of these and other developments points toward a possible decline in cash farm income in Texas in the neighborhood of perhaps 5 per cent. Banking developments at the District's member banks reo flcctcd the high level of economic activity iliat prevailed duro ing 1952. Preliminary cstimates of member bank resources at the end of 1952 placc tl,e total at approximately $8,700,· 000,000, or somewhat more ilian 5 percent above the amount reported a year earlier; total deposits are estimated to have increased by about the same percentage and aggregated about $8,150,000,000; loans and discounts rose to about $2,860,· 000,000, or an increase of more ilian 11 percent; and hold· ings of Government securities, estimated to be about $2,500, 000,000, were up almost 6 perccnt. These estimated cbanges represent somewhat larger increases in loans and discounts and in holdings of Government securities but smallcr ga ins in resources and deposits than occurred in 1951. 12 percent, than at country banks, which appear to have recorded an i IIcrease of more than 9 percent in loan volume. A similar situat ion -- although more pronounced -- apparently prevailed with respect to investments in Government sccurities. Refl ecti ng these developments at least in part, total deposits and total resources of r eserve city banks were probably about 6 percent higher at the end of 1952 than on the comparable date in 1951, while the increases at country banks in each case were approximately 4.5 percent. The stronger effective demand for bank credit during 1952 was rellected in year-to-year increases on a monthly basis. Moreover, as the year progressed, increases over the corresponding months of 1951 became greater. For instance, the volume of loans outstanding in January 1952 was about 6 percent larger than the amount outstanding in ilie same month in 1951. The spread grad ually incrcased and late in 1952 ranged from 11 to 13 percent abovc year· earlier figures . Seasonal movements, especially during ilie first half of the year, were obscured somewhat by the over-all strength of loan demand . Declines of a seasonal nature in loans to dealers jn agricultural commodities, retail and wholesale trade, and certain types of manufacturers were more than offset by nonseasonal increases to other borrowers. Consequently, seasonal loan expansion in the thiJ'd and fourth quarters of the year was superimposed upon an already large loan volume. Total deposits maintained a steadily higher level during 1952, with figures at the close of business as of ilie last Wednesday of each month showing increases ranging from about 6 percent to more than 11 percent over the comparable monthly figures for 1951. A sustained high level of deposits, of course, is consistent with the high-level loan and investmen t position of the District's member banks. Dividend payments, year· end adjustments, and other uncerta in factors prevent reasonable estimates of the growth in MEMBER BANKS ELEVENTH FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT BII..I..IO"l5 0' 001..1.."" $ .~ ' I L I..IONS OF COLLARS ~ u /as 7.5 TOTAL ASSETS __/ /' I 8 .0 ..... --"'" . / B.O ~+_-'~7S ~,~"' .......... ~ ..... --..... - ... " .. --.. 7 .0r...... r-.... - 6. 5~--...-;:-::;;: ... "''''''' /' - 7.0 TOTAL DEPOSITS 6.5 6,OIf - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - + - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- -----.j 6.0 Reserve city and country banks in ilie District shared sub· stantially in the expand ing volume of banking activity during 1952, although somewhat greater growth was experienced by banks in the larger cities. Judgcd on the basis of changes in bank loans, the demand for bank credit was stronger a t reserve city banks, whel'e tl,C increase is estimated in excess of 1.5J F N A M J J 1951 A SOH 0 J ,. M A III J J 1952 A $ 0 H 01.5 MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW capital accounts of member banks in the District. Monthly figures through November, however, appear to indicate that total capital accounts will show a gain that is reasonably comparable with the increase of 1951 and that reflects a continuing strengthening of capital accounts, both through the retention of a substantial proportion of earnings - which were very favorable during 1952 - and the issuance of new stock_ As we look al lead to the economic developments in the months of 1953, the outlook at this time appears very favor· able and indi cates the probability that most of the major eco· nomic ind exes or measures, both in the Nation and in this District, will average somewhat higher than in the year just closed. As stated earlier in this article, strong supports and stimulants to business activity in the nature of an expanding defense program, a high level of private expenditures for plant and equipment, a high level of construction, and very large consumer expenditures combincd to create a favorable economic atmosphere in which the economy operated in 1952. These same factors promise to continue very strong in the new year. Expenditures for national security almost certainly will continue to rise gradually. The increase may not prove to be as great as programed, but increases above the 1952 levels are practically assured_ Moreover, while a conceivable slow· ing down of the defense program might lower the peak level that would be reached during the year, such a policy also might give added stability throughout the year by flatterung and extending the rising trend. Estimates from business sources with regard to plant and equipment expenditures point toward a total approximately equal to the 1952 amount. Likewise, estimates of the trade seem to indicate confidence in the maintenance of very high.level construction expenditures, both in the field of residential and nonresidential awards. Full employment at somewhat higher average wage rates points toward rising personal incomes. Increases in 1953 over the past year appear likely to be moderate and should not be characterized by strong inflationary movements. However, as between an inflationary or deflationary bias in the economy, evidencc still seems to point to the former - moderate though it may be, as compared with preceding years. 7 In the Eleventh District the principal sources of income and employment should experience further expansion in 1953, although the rate of growth may slacken or tend to stabilize. Fundamentally sound growth fa ctors and potentials that are characteristic of the region will continue to exp ress themselves. No appreciable lessening of interest in the industrial possibilities of the Southwest is apparent. In fact, there are indications that such areas as the LouisianaTexas Gulf Coast Crescent, the rapidly expanding DallasFort Worth metropolitan area, the Northeast LouisianaShreveport area, and many other localities in the region can look forward to substantially greater industrial and manufacturing development. Despite a very rapid expansion during the past decade, the petroleum industry must be placed in the category of growth industries. We are living in what might be called a "petroleum age," despite the advent of atomic energy, and demand for the products of that industry will continue strong. Moreover, the rapidly expanding petrochemical industry promises to exert a greater demand for the products of the arca's oil and gas wells and its refineries. There is no reason to anticipate a declining demand for agricultural products. Full-scale production should be characteristic of the region's agriculture. In addition, genuine progress is being made toward a more efficient, better diversified agriculture, which should add stability to income. A growing population and rising employment in industry and other nonagricultural pursnits at higher average wage rates should stimulate the flow of expenditures into channels of trade and services. Factors such as these in operation during a period of national strcngth can be expected to reflect sound and permanent growth, in addition to the more or less temporary advances that may be associated with an expanding defense program or other shorter run stimulants. To the banks of the District this means a further growth in resources, as a reflection of their continued active participation in the development and diversification of the southwest economy. 8 MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW REVIEW OF BUSINESS, AGRICULTURAL, AND Chrisbnas buying in the season just passed was especially heavy. Sales at department stores in the District in the first 3 weeks of December rose 5 percent over the record high of a year earlier. November sales also were at a high level, with average sales per business day equaling the record of November 1951. Charge accounts receivable at department stores rose further during November and at the end of the month were 3 percent above the year-ago level. Charge account collections also rose, reflecting principally the increase in that type of credit. Instalment collections, on the other hand, declined. Department store inventories at the close of November were 7 percent above a year earlier; orders outstanding were up 22 percent. Furniture store sales in November were off 2 percent from the same month in 1951. Rains over most of the District during November and December were greatly beneficial to grasslands and winter crops, although below-normal temperatures in northern counties in the latter month retarded growth of winter grains and legumes_ Harvest of 1952 crops, including cotton, is virtually complete_ Commercial winter vegetable production in south Texas is up sharply from a year ago. Estimates of winter wheat acreage in the states of the District for harvest in 1953 total slightly more than a year earlier. The downward trend on farm commodity prices in the District continued in December. Gross demand deposits of all member banks in the District in November averaged 2.9 percent above October and 6.6 percent above the comparable month in 1951; time deposits also rose in November_ Debits to deposit accounts reported by banks in leading cities declined slightly on a per-businessday basis. Commercial, industrial, and agricultural loans of weekly reporting member banks declined 1.4 percent between November 19 and December 17, after having risen seasonally for several months_ On th other hand, real estate loans, loans to banks, and the category which includes consumer-type loans increased. Inveshnents at these banks rose 3.4 percent during the 4-week period, with holdings of Treasury bills up sharply. Deposits rose 1.7 percent; an increase in demand deposits more than offset a fractional decline in time deposits. FINANCIAL Nonagricultural employment in the District in December was at a record high level; manufacturing employment was 7 percent above a year earlier. Employment trends reflect the continued rapid gain in industrial production in the District. Recently announced plans for industry expansion in the District cover a number of commodities, including aluminum, potash, and paper. The value of construction contracts awarded in the District in November was a record high for the month, although seasonally below October due to curtaihnent in residential awards; nonresidential construction contract awards rose further. Awards for the first 11 months of 1952 show a gain of 1 percent over the comparable period in 1951, compared with 5 percent for the Nation. Christmas buying at depamnent stores in the Eleventh Federal Reserve District set a new all·time dollar record during the week ended December 20. During that week, the weekly index of deparbnent store sales rose 5 percent above the former record established during the comparable week in 1951. The rush of Christmas business began during the first week of December, when the daily average sales volume rose 21 percent above the previous week. With a large amount of money and credit available and a wide selection in al\ types and classes of merchandise, shoppers bought heavily in virtually every deparbnent. The demand reached record levels in wearing apparel, notions, silverware, small electrical appliances, and children's toys. During the latter days, when buying was at its peak, the large downtown stores were taxed virtually to the limit of their capacity to provide properly RETAil TRADE STATISTICS (Percentage change) NET SALES STOCKS I Noy, 1952 from line of trade Noy. 1952 from 11 mo. 1952 byoreD Nov. Od. 1951 1952 _4 7 -7 -4 -14 -8 -2 -2 compo with 11 mo. 1951 Nov. 1951 Oct. 1952 7 2' 6 3 3 DEPARTMENT STORES Total Eleventh District............. (orpul Christi....... . ......... . . Dallas. . . . . ...... .. . .. . ....• .. . EI Paso............... ...... ... Fort Worth . . . . . . . . • •. . • ••. • • •. . Recent developments in the oil industry in the District have centered around the less-than-normal decline in national stocks of major refined petroleum products during November and early December. The high position of stocks is not considered a serious problem; however, oil allowables in Texas for January were reduced one producing day as compared with December. Crude oil production in the District in the first half of December was lower on a daily average basis than in November but above a year earlier. Refinery activity continued at near-peak levels during November but was curtailed in the first part of December. CONDITIONS Houston............ . . . ... .. .... San Antonio. . • . . . . • • . • . •• . • • •. . Shreveport, la........... . . . ..... Waco •.•...•...........•. • • 0 0 , Other ciriei .. ............ .. . ... . .4 -8 -I -5 -2 4-8 -. -3 -2 -1 I FURNITURE STORES Total Eleyenth District. . . . ....... . . Austin............. . ........... DoUos......................... Houston........................ Port Arthur. . . . . . . . • . . . . • . . . . • .. San Antonio.................... Shreveport, La... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Wichita FolI$.... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCE STORES Tota l Eleventh Didrict............. Dallas............... I Stach at end of month. -2 31 2 -6 -27 -8 2 2 - 19 -11 2 1 -8 I -12 _14 6 23 3 8 2 9 5 10 13 -1 I 10 9 10 • • 6 -7 9 -12 -3 -27 - I -6 -12 -. I Indicates change of less than one· ha lf of I percent. -~ 3 6 7 3 5 5 -. 2 5 ~ MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW for the largest crowds and the greatest surge of business they had ever experienced. The crowded conditions and heavy buying spread out into the suburban shopping centers and, as a consequence, many of the specialty stor~s in those locations enjoyed their greatest Chrishnas seasori. I Total dollar volume of retail sales at district deparhnent stores during November declined 4 percen\ from October and was 4 percent under November 1951. The comparison with month-ago and year-ago figures - although somewhat disappointing - was not entirely unexpected. because it was realized that November contained only 24 business days, compared with 27 in October and 25 in November of the previous year. Sales during the 2 weeks ended November 22 were at the highest weekly rates ever recorded for that WHOLESALE TRADE STATISTICS Eleventh Federal Reserve District (Percentage chonge) NET SALESp STOCKSl p November 1952 from T 1 mo.1952 November Drug~ and sundrie$ .......... Dry goods •••••.•••.•.•.•.. Grocery (volunta ry group and full-line wholesQlers sponsoring groups) ••••. • •• Hardware .• ••... . • •. . .. .. • Industrial supplies ••••.•••••• flO' Oetober compo with 1951 une of trade 1952 11 mo.1951 _5 -7 _14 -20 -2 2 7 -13 -5 -5 6 -3 4 -17 -I 2 -4 -II -19 INDEXES OF DEPARTMENT STORE SALES AND STOCKS (1947·49 November 1951 October 1952 II 2 -3 3 6 3 -25 3 3 7 -3 100) ADJUSTEDl Area Eleventh District •... .... .... Dallas .... . .• 0 •••••••••••• Hou~ton ••••••••••••••••••• STOCKS-End of month Eleventh District .. •... . .... . Nov. Oct. Sept. 134 133 149 128 127 145 144 141 157 1A5p 141 134 135 1952 144 137 162 ad. Sept. 129 118 145 128 12' 150 133 129 122 140 130p 129 131 120 Nov. Nov. 1952 1952 195 1 1952 1952 1952 1951 11 9 IIA 1 Adjusted for seasonal variation. p _ Preliminory, Inventories at the close of November were 3 percent above October and 7 percent above a year earlier. The rise in inventories from the year-ago total was at approximately the same rate as the gain in cumulative sales for the first 11 months. The inventory position of various types of merchandise shows careful adjushnents to current sales trends. Orders outstanding for new merchandise at the end of November were 4 percent lower than a month earlier and 22 percent above a year ago. Furniture stores sales reported in the District for November were 8 percent under October figures and 2 percent below those of November 1951. The difference in the number of trading days would more than account for the decline. Inventories at the end of the month were 2 percent above the previous month but were 7 percent below a year earlier. Accounts receivable rose moderately during the month to a total 22 percent above November 1951, while collections showed a decline of 3 percent from a year ago. -2 -4 29 -I 2 = UNADJUSTED Nov. SALES-Daily average With one more business day than in the same month of the previous year, it is expected that final reports will show total sales in December about 8 percent above the record December level in 1951. November 1952 from 9 - I Mochlnery equipment and supplies e.llcept electrical .. Metols • • • . ••••.•••••••••.• Tobacco products ........... Wines and liquors . • .. . . ... . -27 I - I Stocks at end of month. p-Preliminory. I Indicates chgnge of less than one·half of 1 percent. SOURCE: United States Bureau of the Census. 1 month; as a r esult, the unadjusted index for the month, which allows for the difference in trading days, indicates that sales for the average business day in November were at the record rate established a year earlier and were 7 percent above the daily average during October. However, because of the lower total dollar volume for the month, cumulative sales for the yea r to date dropped from a gain of 7 percent at the end of October to 6 percent at the end of November. Charge accounts receivable at deparhnent stores rose 3 percent during November and at the end of the month were 3 percent greater than on the same date in 1951. Collections made during the month on charge accounts were 9 percent above October and 4 percent above November 1951. Instalment acco unt collections were in the same dollar volume as during October and were 9 percent under the amount collected during November a year earlier. The ratio of instalrnellt col1ections during the month to instalment receivables at the beginning oI the month was 12 percent. Based on that ratio, the current average collection period for instalment accounts was slightly more than 15% months, compared viith 14 months for October and 10 months for November 1951. Additional rains were received over most of the District in December, following the general rains over virtually all areas in November. Temperatures were somewhat below normal a major part of the month, retarding the growth and development of winter grains and legumes, many of which were seeded following the November rains. Winter pastures have shown marked improvement; small grains are furnishing some pasturage throughout much of the District_ The first official report by the United States Deparhnent of Agriculture of the winter wheat crop for harvest in 1953 shows a total of 611 ,141,000 bushels for the Nation, the smallest since 1943. This report, based on December 1 conditions, also places the Texas crop at 25,105,000 bushels, sharply below average and one of the smallest crops in many years. Oklahoma wheat growers expect to harvest 50,000,000 bushels, or less than half the 1952 crop. Condition of the wheat crop in the District is reported by the Department of Agriculture as fair to good. Most fields that are up to a stand are not well established, and their further growth and development will be highly dependent upon additional moisture during the coming months, as subsoil moisture is virtually nonexistent. Also, considerable damage could occur if the crop is subjected to severe winter weather during the next few weeks. MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 10 WINTER WHEAT ACREAGE (In thousand, of ocrel' ACREAGE Crop of 1952 Stat. NORTHERN .HIGH PLAINS PRODUCTI ON Crop of 1952 Crop of 1953 1953 630 24 611 Te:l{ol • • ••••••.••• • •.•.•••. • 5,021 6,644 5,021 107,115 34,626 Total •.••••••••••••••••• 12,004 12,300 142,966 J-N 2,4".( 49,830 25,105 77,955 Arizona ••••••••••••••••••••• New Mexico ..•••.••• .•• .•... Oldohoma •••••.•.••••.•••••. 25 6,328 598 627 Crop of 576 SOURCE: United Stotes Deportment of Agric:ultur •. Commercial winter vegetable production in south Texas is forecast at 28 percent higher than the 1951-52 season, based on conditions existing at mid·December. Acreage of the eight principal winter vegetable crops is 31 perccnt above a year ago, and yields are expected to be about average. The shipping season for tender vegetables was ended in most sections in mid· December by frost and subfreezing tempera· tures, but hardy crops of all kinds were not damaged appre· ciably. Shipments of beets, cabbage, carrots, cauliflower, lettuce, spinach, and broccoli continued in volumc. By mid· December a considerable acreage of spring·crop tomatoes was already planted in the Lower Rio Grande Valley. Condi· tions are reported to be generally favorable for continued transplanting of irrigated onions. CITRUS FRUIT PRODUCTION CROP REPORTING DISTRICTS OF TEXAS cated. Harvest of cotton in the Eleventh District is being completcd rapidly, with mechanical harvesters replacing most hand labor in western sections. lin thovsands of boxes) Averoge of 10 seasons ended 1951 ARIZONA Oranges... ... ... ......... Grapefrult... . . . ....... ... LOUISIANA Orange'......... ... .. .... TEXAS Oranges............. ... .. Grapefruit. • • • .. . • • • • . • • • • 992 1950-51 1951-52 730 Ind icated 1952_53 3,344 1,400 3,150 2,140 1,000 2,700 314 300 50 50 3,621 16,772 2,700 7,500 300 200 1,000 400 SOURCE:! United States Department of Agriculture. The December 1 estimate of the Texas cotton crop placed 1952 production at 3,750,000 bales - up 90,000 from the November estimate but still sharply below early season fore· casts. For the Nation, a crop of 15,038,000 bales is indio A sharp improvement in the condition of ranges and pas· tures during November and December is reported by the Department of Agriculture. In eastern and southern sections of the District, winter pastures have improved sufficiently to provide some green feed. Nevertheless, the condition of all range feed in Texas remains well below average for this time of year. The condition of cattle and sheep improved slightly during November, but most herds and flocks in the range areas were r eported to be showing some loss in weight during December, despite fairly heavy supplemental feeding. Ewes are going into the winter in generally poor condition. FARM COMMODITY PRICES Top Prices Pa i d in Local Soulhwest Markets conON PRODUCTION Commodity and market Texas Crop Reporting Districts COTTON, Middling 15/ 1 6.inch, Dalla s •. • .• WHEAT, No.1 hard, Fart Worth •.•.•. .• •• OATS, No.2 white, Fort Worth • • .• • ••••.. CORN, No.2 yellow, Fort Worth .• ••••• .. SORGHUMS, No.2 yellow milo, Fort Worth. HOGS, Choice, fort Worth ••••.•.•••••.• SLAUGHTER STEERS, Choice, Fort Worth • •. SLAUGHTER CALVES, Choice, fort Worth... STOCKER STEERS, Choice, Fort Worth .•.. . SLAUGHTER LAMBS, Choice, fort Worth ••• HENS, 3-4 pounds, Fort Worth ...•....•.. FRYERS, Commercial. Fort Worth • • • •...•.• BROILERS, south Texas • . ••••.•••• . .••••. TURKEYS, No.1 hens, Fort Worth .•••• •..• lin thousands of bale. - 500 lb. groll wt.) 1952 Crop reporting district 1950 1951 I·N ........................ 1-5 .. ..... ................. 2-N •........•.•.•...• . • .•.• 2·5 ................ . ....... 89 721 348 944 287 218 33 206 10·5 ....................... 342 16 557 60 61 143 48 139 90 122 27 325 Stole •• • •.•• . •.• . •••.• . • 2,946 3 •• ••••. •• ••• . . .. .• •• .• .. .• "' .. ........................ 5-N ........................ 5·5 ........................ 6 • •.••• .. • •.•.•..••...•... . 7 .......................... 8·N •..••..••.•••.......•... 8-5 .................. .... .. 9 .......................... 10-N •••••••• •. •..•••• •• ••.• 610 112 85 192 24 192 86 256 79 1952 Indicated As percent af Dece mber 1 1951 450 950 185 55 10 620 95 100 245 15 2\0 225 225 55 129 101 64 25 30 102 85 118 128 63 109 608 310 262 88 70 51 4,074 3,750 '2 SOURCE, United Stales Department of Agriculture. f Comparable Comparable Week ended week week Unit Oec.22 , 1952 lad manlh last year lb. bu. bu. bu. cwt. cwl. cwl. cwl. ~t. cwl. lb. lb. lb. lb. $32 .20 2.7014 1.13'A 1.89 3.'3 17.50 28.00 25.00 21.00 20.00 .24 .32 .32 .37 $33.35 2.73!A 1.12* 1.87* 3.32 $41.90 2.82!4 1.24% 2.28~ 3.13 17.25 19.00 30.00 35.00 33.00 3'.00 28.00 25.00 22.00 22.00 .22 .32 .33 .35 .26 .30 .'0 The downward trend of prices received by district farmers for most agricultural commodities during the fall continued through December. As a result, cotton reached a new low for the season and late in the month was selling at or near the loan rate in most markets. Livestock prices lost most of the gains that had been achieved in late November, and past ~ ~ ~ , MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW CASH RECEIPTS FROM FARM MARKETINGS (In thousands of dollon) Cumuloti",. receipts September 1951 StQte Arizona ..... $ Louisiana, . . • January-October October 1952 1951 1952 1951 1952 17,410 57,116 18,393 69,227 261,577 $ 18,145 74,101 18,344 73,767 314,729 43,324 $ 53,614 71,318 77,519 69,858 72.004 95,911 77,828 275,157 299,285 1,674,945 $ 291,526 305,986 184,282 604,951 1,729,571 Tolal ..... $423,723 $499,086 $577,714 $578,104 S2,841,513 $3,116,316 New Mexico. Oklahoma ..• reJlos ...... 236,458 274,390 169,901 485,819 SOURCE: United Slates Department of Agriculture. mid-December they were at or near the low for 1952_ Prices of wheat declined moderately, but prices of grain sorghums, rice, vegetables, and dairy products remained generally unchanged, Prospects for crop production in the District in 1953 are clouded by the lack of subsoil moisture and the consequent heavy dependence on timely and adequate rains throughout the planting and growing seasons_ Supplies of irrigation water in the Lower Rio Grande Valley are very deficient, and unless substantial rains are received within the next few weeks, cotton planting in that area will be restricted, Livestock production in the District - if average weather conditions prevail- may very well exceed that of 1952, Despite heavy liquidations of cattle in 1952, the number of all livestock in the District probably will show little or no decline from a year earlier, Poultry production, especially broilers, is expected to increase further_ In discussing the price outlook, the Department of Agriculture anticipates that prices received by farmers will average no higher, and perhaps somewhat lower, than in 1952_ LIVESTOCK RECEIPTS (Number) FORT WORTH MARKET No¥ember Clo$l November 1952 1951 Cattle ......... . Cal ... M ••• • . . . • . • Hags ...... . ... . Sheep ........ .. 67,588 25,217 57,875 49,535 51,572 33,220 77,730 1 47,304 SAN A.NTONIO MARKET October 1952 November 101 ,959 39,070 37,143 70,368 2 1,506 15.925 1952 1]6.022 November October 11 paid substantial amounts of bank borrowings, On the other hand, wholesale and retail trade establishments, manufacturers of metal and metal products, and sales finance companies increased the amount of their bank indebtedness, The increase in commercial, industrial, and agricultural loans between June II (the low point for the year) and December 17 - a period of increasing seasonal demand for bank credit - amounted to $144,339,000, or 14 percent, This compares with the expansion of $91,384,000, or 9 percent, during the comparable period of 1951. The cxpansion in 1952, however, is not greatly different from the increase that occurred during 1951 from the low point of that year (August 8) to December 19_ Changes in other types of loans of the weekly reporting member banks between November 19 and December 17 include increases in real estate loans, loans to banks, and the category which comprises consumer-type loans, Loans for financing security transactions declined_ On December 17, loans of these banks amounted to $1,753,772,000, reflecting an increase of 12,0 percent over the comparablc total for 1951. Investments of the weekly reporting member banks rose $49,246,000, or 3,4 percent, during the 4 weeks ended December 17_Holdings of Treasury bills increased $74,374,000, or 45 percent. Other principal changes in investment portfolios include an increase in Treasury notes and greater-thanoffsetting decreases in certificates of indebtedness and Treasury bonds, Holdings of municipals were unchanged_ Deposits of the weekly reporting member banks rose $74,996,000, or 1.7 percent, between November 19 and December 17, reflecting principally increases in most major types of demand accounts_ Demand deposits of individuals, partnerships, and corporations rose $66,641,000, or 2,6 percent, while deposits of the United States Government declined $5,984,000, or 5,7 percent, Time deposits declined 1951 1952 23,635 23,595 25,386 5,436 116,728 18,879 CONDITION STATISTICS OF WEEKLY REPORTING MEMBER BANKS IN LEADING CITIES 130,249 Eleventh Federal Reserve District Includes ;oats. lin thousands of dollou) Item Commercial, industrial, and agricultural loans of the weekly reporting member banks declined $16,927,000, or 1.4 percent, between November 19 and December 17, This reduction compares with an increase of $45,155,000, or 4_3 pcrcent, during the comparable period in 1951 and is in contrast with the upward movement that had prevailed in other recent weeks during 1952_ These loans were at a record total of $1,198,558,000 on ovember 19_ The contraction in commercial, industrial, and agricultural loans during the 4 weeks ended December 17 reflects rather sharp liquidation of outstanding bank indebtedness by commodity dealers in most weeks_ Construction firms and manufacturers of petroleum and chemical products also re- Dec. 17, 1952 Total loons {gross} and investment•.......... . $3,236,255 Totalloans-Net 1..•................... . 1,735,253 Total loans-Gross • •••.•.•••••.•..•....• 1,753,772 Commercial, industrial, and agricultural loons . .................. .. ........ 1,181,631 loans to broken and dealers in securities.. 10,670 Other loons for purchasing or carrying securities ... ....................... 66,118 Real estate loons . .................... 128,069 loans to bonks ....................... 11,623 All other loons . .................. . ... 355,661 Total investments .. ............... .. .... 1.482,483 U. S. Treasury bills . ........... ........ 240,113 U. S. Treasury certificates of indebtedness. 148,918 U. S. Treasury notes ................... 214,636 U. S. Govemment bonds linc. gtd. obligations).• ..... ..... . ........... 700,974 Other securities ....... ... . ... ......... 177,842 Reserves with federal Reser... e Bonk .......... 613,259 Balances with dame5lic bonks ... ............ <48,780 Demond depolits-adiusted z...... .... ...... 2,537,728 482,621 Time deposits except Government ............ United States Government d eposits . ..... ..... 110.136 Interbank demand deposits .............. . .. 927,102 Borrowings from Federal Reser ... e Bank . . .. .. .. 14,800 Oec.19, No .... 19, 1951 1952 $2,970,893 $3,191,320 1,549,565 1,565,884 1,741,695 1,758,083 1,091,473 9,080 1,198,558 54,767 120,292 67,856 125,680 2,336 287,936 1,405,009 316,563 158,243 179,466 581,562 169,175 585,931 10,207 9,876 345,906 1,4 33,237 165,739 159,433 206,343 723,953 177,769 465,030 606,906 454,189 2,377,288 2,463,748 452,173 483,972 83,498 909,561 8,500 116,120 919,565 42,750 1 Aftll:!r deducttons for reserves and unQIlcx:ated chClrge-ofh. ! Includ es aU demand deposit' other tt.an interbank and United Stales Government, le ss cash items reported as on hand or in prcx:.ss of collection. MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 12 GROSS DEMAND AND TIME DEPOSITS Of MEMBER BANKS Eleventh f ederal Rese rve District (Ayeraie. of dally figures. In thouland, of dollol"l) COMBINED TOTAL RESERVE CITY BANKS Gran Date COUNTRY BANKS Gross d emand Time demand Gross demand Time Time Novemher 1950 .• $6,087,614 $657,258 $2,951.134 $406,100 $3,136,480 $251,158 6,592,874 686, 144 3,101,804 376,802 3,491,070 309,342 Novemher 1951 .. 6,566,056 744,250 3,147,07 5 40B,616 3,418,981 335,634 July 1952 .... .. . Aug ust 1952.... . September 1952. Octobor 1952 . .. Novem ber 1952 .• 6,546,078 758,238 6,692,788 767,553 6,828,5 12 770,099 7,025,207 780,156 3,123,616 3,190,957 3,262,180 3,338,376 3,422,462 3,501,831 3,566,332 3,686,831 41 4, 837 421,871 420,233 421,427 343,40 1 345,682 349,866 358,729 fractionally, reflecting an increase in deposits of individuals and businesses and a reduction in deposits of states and political subdivisions. Deposits of the weckly reporting member banks amounted to $4,370,233,000 on December 17, as compared with $4,133,464,000 on December 19, 1951. Gross demand deposits of all member banks in the Dis· trict averaged $7,025,207,000 during November, reflecting increases of $196,695,000, or 2.9 percent, over October and $432,333,000, or 6.6 percent, over the comparable month of 1951. About 61 percent of the increase during November occurred at the country member banks. Time deposits rose $10,057,000, or 1.3 percent, during November to a total of $780,156,000, with country banks accounting for 88 percent of the increase. The expansion of tin,e deposils during November reflects an extension of the sustained upward trend which had pre· BANK DEBITS, END·Of·MONTH DEPOSITS AND ANNUAL RATE Of TURNOVER Of DEPOSITS (Amou nh In thousands of dollars) DEBITS' DEPOSITS' Pe rcenfagl!l change from Annual rate of turnover November City ARIZONA Tucson ••••••••• . •.. • Nov. Oet. Nov.30. 1952 1951 1952 1952 NEW MEXICO Roswell •.•. . ....•.• . TEXAS Abilene ... ...... . .. . Amarillo ••••.•. . . . • . Austin ••... .. •. • . .. . Beaumont ••• • •.•. . • . Corpus Chri ~ti • •...•. . Corsicana .... ....... Dolia s ....... . ... . . . EJ Paso . ... .. ... . ... FOri Worth .... ... .. . Galveston ... ....... . Houston ...... . ... . . . La redo ............. Lubbock ... . ... ..... Port Arthur . .. _ .. . ... San Angelo .......• .. San Antonio ... . . .. . . Texa rkano l ....... .. . Tyler .............. . Waco . . .. . ........ . Wichita falls .. ...... Ocl. 1952 Nov. Nov. 106,405 24 6 $ 114,816 11.2 10 .• 10 .8 49,578 -10 -18 51,697 208,538 11.8 10.7 12.4 181 ,544 _1 2 11.3 13.3 13.2 26,233 3 -10 31,661 10.2 10.6 12.0 57.35.4 121,487 11.5 12.1 13.3 17.0 13.2 11.3 15.6 13.7 16.1 15.5 9.' 21.2 14.5 15 .6 10.1 18.0 10.2 17.3 13.2 9.1 11.3 9.5 12.2 11.2 9.4 16.2 LOUISIANA Monroe .... .. ...... . Shreveport .•...... . . 1952 1951 2 I 134,157 - I S - 13 135,863 1 -4 , 30.887 -4 -3 142,581 12 - 4 12,773 -8 -26 1,491,630 -1 -22 205,898 9 8 505.0408 1 -6 78,<165 - I -9 1,608,922 3 -11 21. 174 10 -4 165.4S3 12 12 _5 45.250 -6 36,311 -14 -9 353,177 f -5 19,5 77 -8 -12 .9,813 -2 -13 69,041 1 -21 88,000 6 5.4,594 10tal-24 clties . .... . . . $5,712,764 " -12 109,566 8.6 9.7 13.9 17.5 15.1 7.3 17.S 16.3 16.1 9.5 16.8 10.2 17.9 13.2 9.2 11.0 10.7 11.6 8.9 9.6 55,049,103 13 .8 15.0 119, 195 103,937 121.709 22,761 1, 262,622 163,913 419,837 103,735 1,216,177 26,747 113,50S 44,283 52 ,634 400,690 28,038 57,025 97,173 15.0 14.4 6 .8 15.2 15.4 14.5 9.2 16.0 9 .6 , 8 .0 12.4 8.3 , 0.7 8.4 10.6 Debits to deposit accounts except interba nk ac:cotmts. , Demand and time deposits, including certiRed and offlcers' c:heck, outstanding but ex ' cluding deposIts to the c:red it of banks. , These flgure s include only one bank in Texarkana, Texas. Tota l debits for all banki in Texarkana , Texas-Arkansas, inc:luding two banks located in the Eighth District, amou,ted to S36,968,OOO for the month of November 195 2. I Indicates chang e of leu than one· half of I percent. 1 vailed in most months since March 1951. During the 20· month period, time deposits of thc member hanks in the District rose $135,778,000, or 21.1 percent. This rate of ~ expansion of time deposits compares with an increase of 17.3 percent in demand deposits during the same period. Debits to deposit accounts reported by banks in 24 cilies of the District declined sharply in November as compared with the total for October, reflecting principally the smaller number of business days in November. The reduction, which amounted to 12 percent, was general over the District as banks in most cities showed decreases. Daily average debits during November as compared with the daily average figure for October - a measure wh ich is more indicalive of change in the rate of spending than a comparison of monthly totals - declined somewhat less lhan 1 percent. Despite the reduc· tion in the monthly total for November, the volume of eharges lo deposit accounts was 1 percent above the com· parable figure for 1951. The annual rale of turnover of deposits, which is indicative of the annual rate of use of deposit accounts, declined from 16.2 in October to 13.8 in November. This rcd uclion also was due, in part, to the dif· ference in the number of business days of the 2 months. Turnover in November compares with thc rate of 15.0 for ovember 1951. CONDITION Of THE fEDERAL RESERVE BANK Of DAllAS lin thousa nds of dollau) Item Dec. IS, 1952 Total gold I::er,ifltale reserves .. ..... . .. . .... $ 769,540 16,000 Discounts for member banks . ..... .. ••.. .. . . 0 Industrial advances ..... . .... . ......... .... Foreign loans on gold ...... ... . . . . . . .. .... 1,691 1,094,07 4 U.S. Govemment securities ... ... .. .. ...... . 1,111,765 Total earning anets .... . .................. 1,060,874 Member bank reserve deposits .... .. ........ 759,099 Fed eral Relerve notes in actual circulation . .... Dec. 15, 1951 S 625,576 5,000 39 0 1, 112,029 1,117.068 1,062.096 698.414- Nov. IS, 1952 753,725 54,700 0 1,710 1,076,77 1 1,133, 18 1 f 1,084,196 752,902 Federal Reserve notes of this bank in actual circulation December 15 amOlUlted to $759,099,000, reflecting in· creases of $6,197,000 over November 15 and $60,685,000 over December 15, 1951. On December 2, notes of this bank in actual circulation rose to a record total of 762,762,000. Between November 15 and December 15, other changes in the condition of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas included decreases of $23,322,000 in member bank reserve balances and $21,416,000 in total ea rning assets. The reduction in earning assets reRects principally a decrease in discounts for member banks and a less·than·offsetting increase in hold· ings of United States Government securilies. Gold certificate reserves rose $15,815,000. 011 The money market was tight duri ng the first half of December, marking a continuation of the tightness which had prevailed throughout November. Quotations on Federal funds were at levels of 1H percent or I %, percent on each day of the period, while rates on loans to Government secu rilies dealers ranged from 2 to 214 percent. Market bid rales on Treasury bills nearest a 3·month maturity rose from 2.01 percent on December 1 lo 2.12 percent on December 15. Also indicative of the prevailing tightness, loans, discounts, and advances of the Reserve banks rose to a total of $1,756,· 000,000 on December 10 after having declined slightly during the week ended December 3 to a level of $1,595,000,000. .41 ~ • 13 MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW The weekly issue of 91-day Treasury bills dated December 18 was sold at an average rate of di sco unt of 2.138 percent, which represents a further extension of the recent upward trend of average issuing rates. Average issuing rates for these 3·month bills rose from 1.635 percent for the issue dated September 25 to 2.091 percent for the issue dated December 11. The bidding for bills dated December 18 established the highest average issui ng rate since March 6, 1933. On December 1 the 2Y2-percent Treasury bonds of December 15, 1963-68, which are outstanding in the amount of 52,829,000,000, became eligible for purchase by commercial banks. On December 15, the 21,4 -percent bonds of December 15, 1959-62, which are outstanding in the amount of $3,468,000,000, also became eligible. Expiration of the restrictions against commercial bank purchases of these issues increased the amount of bonds which became eligible in 1952 to a total of $13,696,000,000. a fractional decline. Temperatures through mid-December were slightly wanner than a year ago, which probably accounts for the year-to-year decrease in demand, especially for heating oils. The stock situation, it should be emphasized, is not serious. Present stocks of distillate fuel oil ma y not prove to be heavy if temperatures during the next 2 months in major consumin g areas of the country are nearer normal than prevailed during these months of 1952. Moreover, the nominations of purchasers to the Texas Railroad Commission for January were slightly higher than for the previous month, although below the allowable permitted for December. This development supports the position that stocks are not seriously heavy. Furthermore, the January allowable announced by the Commission was only 1 day less than for December, representing a reduction in the daily allowable of 89,426 barrels from that prevailing at mid-December. CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION (Borrels) The oi l picture in the Eleventh Federal Reserve Distrirt was clouded somewhat during November and the first part of December due to a smaller decline in the national total of combined stocks of major refined products than usually occurs at this time of the year. Total national stocks of the four major refined products - gasoline, kerosene, and distillate and residual fuel oils - amounted to 318,800,000 barrels on December 13, reflecting a decline of about 3 percent from November 1, as contrasted with declines of around 5 percent in th e corresponding periods of 1950 and 1951. Distillate fuel oil stocks declined 10,600,000 harrcls during the period, which is 1,800,000 barrels less than during the same period in 1951, although higher than in the years 1949 and 1950. Stocks of kerosene and residual fuel oil als o registered small· er declines during the 7-week period than a year earlier. Gas· oline stocks, on the other hand , rose 9,000,000 barrels, or 7 percent, which is a significantly larger ga in than in any of the previous 3 years. November 1952 Area Texas R. R. Com, Districts 1 South Centrol.... . . 1,177,700 5,375,950 2 Middle Gulf.... . . 3 .4 Upper Gulf •••. . ..... . 15,579,700 lowerGutf .. ......... 8,416,700 East Central,....... . . 1,628,750 Northeast., ...••.••.• 11,832,500 East TexCls .... ..•.. 7,701,750 Other flelds. . . . . • . • 4,130,750 7b North Central . . • . . . . . . 3,552,850 7e West Central.... . .. .. 5,519, 150 8 West •• ...•.........• 31,405,400 9 North .. .......... .. .. 5,750,100 10 Panhandle.. . ......... 2,422,750 Total Texas •..... . .• 92,661,550 New Mexico. . . . • • • . . . . . . . . 5,083,850 North l ouisiana ..... .. ...... 3,371,600 Total Eleventh District ••.... 101,117,000 OUTSIDE elEVENTH DISTRICT .. . 97,865,000 UNITED STATES .............. 198.982,000 5 6 SOURCE: E~timated Nov. 1951 Oct. 1952 ~!f1 3 ..._ .Il~'!."_~ I,.) MIODLE GULF UPPER GULF LOWER GUl r EAST COITRIIL "K)RTH£IIST 71 NORTH CENTRIIL 1c WEST CENTRAL 6 .... EST 9 NORrH 10 I'~NHANOL( 39,257 179,198 519,323 280,556 54,292 394,417 256,725 137,692 118,428 183,972 1,046,847 191,670 80,758 3,088,718 169,462 11 2,387 3.370,567 3,262,166 6,632,733 5.705 9,168 27,798 20,263 -118 -7.698 -20.375 12,677 34,968 63,872 68,977 33,370 -2.502 253,803 21 ,942 -12,288 263,457 134,222 397,679 2.073 5,563 10,158 3.4 30 2,620 12,90 4 6,480 6,424 7,863 5,991 32.615 5.133 -1.642 86.708 1,125 653 88.486 14,299 102,785 from Amerkan Petroleum Institute weekly reports. I''T~-;=-r! The tendency of ren ned and crude stocks to hold at high levels i8 due, in large part, to the failure of demand to increase in accordance with expectations; in fact, reports show Doily Clvg. production ELEVENTH OISTR ICT As compared with a year earlier, distillate fuel oil stocks in the Nation on December 13 were reported at 109,700,000 harrels, reflecting a gain of 12 percent_ Gasoline stocks toLaled 129,600,000 barrels, or 3 percent higher than a year earlier, while residual fuel oil stocks showed a year-to-year increase of 11 percent. Kerosene stocks, h owever, were down about 3 percent. Meanwhile, crude oil stocks in the l\' ation and in the District havc continued high. Stocks in the District rose about 3,400,000 barrels in the 6 weeks ended December 13 to 143,500,000 barrels, which is 8,200,000 barrels higher than a year earlier. National crude stocks on December 13 totaled 269,500,000 barrels, which is 1,000,000 barrels more than on November 1 and 11,200,000 barrels greater than on the corresponding date in 1951. Increa se or decrease in daily average production from Total production RAILROAD COMMISSION OF TEXAS OIL AND GAS DISTRICTS 14 MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW Some uneasiness over the stock situation in the first part of November led to the cutback in Texas December allow· abies and the resulting curlailment in crude oil production in the District during that month. Production during the first half of December averaged 74',267 barrels below the November daily average, although 228,144 barrels above December a year ago. Daily average production in the Dis· trict in )/ovember set a new record for the third consecutive month, amounting to 3,371,000 barrels, which is 88,500 barrels higher than the previous month and 263,500 barrels higher than in November a year ago. ational production trends were similar to those prevailing in the District. NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Five Southwestern Siotes I Percent change Type of employment October 1952p October September 1951 1952 Totol nonagricultural wage Qnd so lo ry ..... orkers . . 3,776,600 3,638,600 3.760,1 00 716,400 Nonmonufoduring . ••... .. 3.060.200 221.500 Mining .......... .. ... . 285.500 Construo::tion . ....... . .. 673.000 2,965,600 705,000 3.055,100 224,100 283.900 Manufacturing . ... . ...... Tron ~ portation and public utilities, • • • ••• . ...• . . Trod •.............. . . finance . . ... . ...... . .. Service . ........ ... ... Government • ••...••..• Refinery activity in the Dislrict during November was maintained at levels only very slightly below the peak reached in the previous month. The November daily average crude runs to refinery stills in the District are estimated at 2,131,000 barrels, as compared wilh 2,141,000 barrels in the previous month and 1,926,000 barrels in November 1951. The average crude runs to stills in the Nation were the sec· ond highest for any month on record, averaging 7,031,000 barrels, or 131,000 barrels more than the previous month and almost 400,000 barrels more than November 1951. Refinery activity in the Nation during the first half of December, however, was curtailed, with daily average cr ude runs lo stills almost 300,000 barrels less lhan in November and at the lowest level since the weeks immediately following the oil strike, when many refineries were just getting back into production. Drilling activity in the Nation by mid·December had al· most recovered from the depressed levels resulting from the steel strike. The total number of active rotary rigs in the week ended December 15 was 2,781. This figure is 468 above the post.strike low and only 66 less than the high for the year reached in the week ended May 12. Nonagricultural employment in the District continued to rise as the Christmas season opened new jobs in trad e and service employment. Rece nt estim ates by state employ. ment agencies reveal that in October the total number of nonagricultural wage and salary workers in the five states lying wholly or partly within the District rose to 3,777,000, or 4 percent above October 1951. Similarly, manufacturing employment increased 6 percent above a year ago to 716,000 workers. Because of heavy demands for retail trade and post office employment, it is estimated unoflicially that total non· agricultural employment in the five·state area rose in Decem· ber to a record 3,845,000 workers. Manufacturing employ· ment also rose during the month as steel supplies became more available, but some seasonal losses wcre encountered in chemical manufacturillg plants. It is estimated unofficially lhat the total number of malluIacturing workers in the five stales rose to approximately 732,000 in December, or 7 per· cenl above December 1951. Oct. 1952 from Numbe r of persons t 409.900 953.200 1<6,400 424,100 619,600 211,900 291,000 400,100 409,000 918,000 9.46,200 132.000 409,500 603,100 146,200 425,4'00 620,300 Oct. 19 5 1 Sept. 1952 3.8 6.4 3.2 4.5 - 1.9 .4 1.6 .2 -1.2 .6 2.4 3.8 10.9 3.6 2.7 .2 .7 .1 -.3 -.1 ATilano, louisiana, New Mexico, Oklanomo, and 1ellOo,. p_Prelimin ory, SOURCEI Stohl employment ogeno.s. November estimates of the Department of Labor indicate that all major labor market areas in the District are classi· fied as areas of moderate labor surplus except Dallas and Houston, which are in the category of a balanced labor sup· ply. These November estimates show only one change from those reported in September, at which time Houston was an area of moderate labor surplus. As indicated by the above manufacturing employment figures, industrial produclion in the District has continued its rapid gain. Of particular nole during ovember was the announcement of the partial completion of a new aluminum plant et Rockdale, Texas. While presently capable of produc· ing only 21,250 net tons per month, thls plant eventually will have a monthly output of nearly 85,000 net tons and will employ 1,200 workers . The start of opera lions at this Rockdale plant is importanl nationally, because the aluminum to be produced here is the first finished under the second round of the aluminum expansion program. Of a total United States capacity of 1,236,450 net tons of aluminum on December 1, 1952, the District's share was 16 percent, or 193,250 net tons. The construction ullder way at Rockdale will expand the dislrict capacity by 63,750 net tons per month. This is approximately 16 percent of the planned expansion of all United Stales aluminum plants. The third expansion program for this metal was inaugurated by the recent announcement that a fiflh producer wilI" enter the field, although the location of this plant has not been annoullced. One interesting aspect of aluminum production in this District is that the primary source of energy stems from natural gas or lignite, whereas most aluminum plallts throughout the country use hydroeleclric energy for reduc· tion power. One of the major potash companies ill New Mexico has announced a planned expansion whereby a new mine and refinery will be constructed in Lea County, ew Mexico, approximately 24 miles east of Carlsbad. At the same time, this compally announced tbe development of a new dry process for refining potash. The refinery and a $500,000 test plant will be conslrucled to utilize this process. 15 MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW A measure o( the outstanding growth of the chemical industry in the Eleventh District is shown by recent figures released on certificates of necessity granted by the Defense Production Admin istration. Of a United States total of $2,279,301,000 in certificates granted prior to October 15, 1952, for chemical expansion projects, the five states of the District received $706,038,000, or 31 percent. Texas alone, with a total of 435,088,000, received 19 percent of the United States total. The value of constr uction contracts awarded in the District during l\'ovember totaled $99,000,000, which is seasonally below October by R percent but is the highest for any November on record and about one·third above November 1951. VALUE OF CONSTRUCTION CONTRACTS AWARDED The decline from October to Novel11 ber resulted from a reduction in value of residential awards, which, at slightly under $40,000,000, was of! for the second consecutive month but still a record high for November. Nonresidential construction contract awards were valued at over $59,000,000 - up for the second consecutive month and 60 percent above November 1951. The value of construction contracts awarded in the Distrirt during the first 11 months of 1952 was more than 1 percent above that for th e same period in 1951. A 2-percent decline in residential awards was more than offset by a 4-percent increase in othcr awards. Construction contracts awarded in the United States in the January-November period were up 5 percent, with residential and nonresidential awards gaining 6 percent and 3 percent, respectively. (In thoulands of dollars) DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION AND STOCKS OF COTTON Jonuory-Noyember November 1952p Area and type November 1951 October 1952p 1952p 1951 ELEVENTH DISTRICT. - .-.-=$--=9-=9.-=2:""'9:---::$:--: 4-= ,7=-$:-,"0-,7-'-7-1-,-- ,-.2-77...:....7-8-6-'-,-.2-6-1-.2-6-. . 7:-:.5-= .8 Residential......... 39,787 37.299 49,2 31 529,861 538,925 AU other........ .. . 59,432 37,21 8 58,640 747,925 722,344 UNITED STATES ' ...... 1,248,803 Residential. . . . . . . . . 528,429 All other........... 720,374 951,056 443,884 507,172 1.320,958 602,313 718,645 15,307,552 14,651,622 6,228,924 5,859,284 9,078,628 8,792,338 I 37 states eeut of the Rocky Mountains. p-Preliminary. SOURCE: F. W. Dodge Corporation. ~ BUILDING PERMITS November 1952 Number Nov. City Number Valuation 1951 VallKJlion Oct. 1952 Sept. 1952 1 This season LO it seaion CONSUMPTION Total 15, 478 14,735 11 ,779 38,116 38.,67 Texal mills •..•........ 915,5 93 906,750 736,248 2,396,224 2.381.619 U. S. mills •.. .....• .. .. Doily o verage 604 593 5 98 595 625 Texas mills ............ 37,756 37,295 36.993 36.636 37,068 U. S. mills .... ... .... . . STOCKS, U.S.-End of period 982.134 Consuming establishments .. . 1,2 86,942 1,237,544 Public storage and compresses . . , ......... 6,665,848 5,570,421 3,990,779 Percentage change In va luation from 11 months COTTONSEED AND COTTONSEED PRODUCTS 1951 TEXAS 259 783,658 Abilene ...... . 107 Amarillo ... .. . 189 Austin ....... . 211 Beaumont . .... 199 Corpus Christi. . 248 Dallas . .. . . 1,401 EI Paso ., ..... 247 Fort Worth . ... 662 Galveston ..... 86 Houston .. . ... . 907 lubbock ...... 187 Port Arthur . .. . 118 Son Antonio . . . 1,327 WaCo .. . ..... 193 Wichita Falls .. . 27 863.511 961,343 1.517.525 343.629 1.395.735 14.502.163 1.171 .258 2.277.755 305.038 10.292.159 1.258.518 205,697 2,746,766 558,741 203,209 13 -39 3.898 18,120,361 19 1,288 4,298 2,911 2.626 4,0 64 19,800 3.377 10,264 1,278 7.897.718 22,589,272 25,655,862 7.311.521 19,599,774 110.366.439 14.214.56' 41.976.393 6.323.500 105.606.504 18.997.682 3.813.7 35 17 1. -7 5 13 19 TEXAS Total .......... . 6.368 $39.386.705 7 -32 -7 -3 152 152 78 32 161 28 17 -59 41 _44 -40 59 -50 - 49 - 39 -2 22 16 -48 - 87 _3 -20 _58 -30 -38 -41 48 -15 , Indicates change of len than one· half of 1 percent. 10.748 3.028 2.026 16,05 9 3,031 40,521 ,0 17 1.070 12.733.859 17.941.926 89.766 $473.670. 127 , 2 - 13 _ 14 10 -33 -4 _11 120 Item COTTONSEED (tons) Reuived at mill" .... . .. ... Crushed . ................. . Stocks, end of period . ....... COTTONSEED PRODUCTS ProductIon Crude oil (thousand POUlld,l. Coke and meal (tonsl ...... Hulls (tonsl ...... ... . ... . linters (running bales) . . . . . Stocks, end of period Crude oil (thousand p:Ju:tds). Cake and menl (tons} ...... Hulls (tons) .............. Linters (running bal.n) . . ... UNITED STATES August 1 to Octobe r 31 LOUI~ANA Shreveport .... Oct. 1951 I Fint weeks ended November I . 2 four weeks ended September 27. SOURCE: United States Bureau of the Census. 11 months 1952 Percentag e change in va luation from August-October Oct. 1952 1 Area August 1 to Oct:Jber 3 1 Thh seoson Last season This season Last season 373.088 194.973 502.588 271.860 202.943 '01.275 3.323.631 1,450,618 2,009,911 3,195,887 61,971 98.700 42,653 61,167 60.273 98,02645,160 65,788 450,831 698.103 298.806 469.958 484.52, 729,791 347.201 505.957 26,191 16,53 0 14,418 69.891 21,052 18,27 1 8,402 34,475 105,87 9 115,1 14 49,314 232,129 7 4,864 72,854 35,269 135,868 SOURCE, United S'alel BureQu of tne Census. 1,57B,175 1,705,283