The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
MONG][HLG)f RBVIBW 1PuU~INB~~ FEDERAL RESERVE VoI.37,No.l BANK DALLAS, TEXAS o F DALLAS January 1,1952 1951-1952 Looking back upon the economic developments of 1951, it is evident that a more satisfactory degree of stabilization was achieved-even though it may be somewhat uncertain and tenuous-than might have been anticipated. The year opened on a very strong note of inflation. Businesses and consumers eagerly sought to acquire merchandise which it was felt might later be in short supply; new orders to manu· facturers were at a very high level; prices pointed sharply upward; the demand for bank loans continued strong and was reflected in a rising loan volume; and net personal sav· ings were at a rate of less than 4 percent of disposable in· come. It was in this setting that we entered 1951. Therefore, it is not surprising that there was serious concern regarding the actual and potential inflationary (Ianger and the pos· sibility of exercising effective control. Early in the year, however-in fact, between the middle and latter part of the first quarter- the strong inflationary movement began to lose some of its force,and a degree of caution appeared in the picture. This was especially true with respect to the over·all demand for goods by businesses TOTAL INVENTORIES " IILI. I0 .. 50' OOt l.'" s LUONS Of OOL LA ItS 8o 60 0 0 ~ '-7 ~ o •o 0 •o 0 •o 0 0 0 0J f ,.. ... ., , . . 1950 s 0 Io , ,, • 1951 • $ 0 • o and consumers. As shortages failed to develop and as con· sumers found themselves with adequate stocks of goods to meet immediate and, to some extent, future requirements, the buying frenzy that prevailed around the turn of the year changed quickly to an attitude of caution-"buy now" polio cies gave way to "wait and see" policies. The effect of this change in consumer spending was reo flected very quickly in the inventory positions of many busi· nesses. Inventories are seldom considered excessive by the average businessman as long as the rate of sales increasereal or anticipated-is reasonably well related to the rate of inventory increase. However, when sales taper off or begin to decline, as was the case in early 1951, inventories that have not been a matter of concern suddenly become exces· si ve. By the end of the first quarter of the year, businessmen generally recognized the danger of unbalanced inventories and undertook corrective measures. Orders to manufacturers of civilian goods began to be reduced, buying commitments were shortened, and more aggressive selling practices were undertaken to move stocks on hand. Running through the period from early October 1950 to the end of 1951 were a number of other developments which were anti.inflationary in character. These included actions by government, the Federal Reserve System, private enterprise, and consumers in the fields of credit, prices and wages, allocations of materials, taxation, and savings. Early in the third quarter of 1950 amendment of Regula. tion W, restricting the terms applicable on instalment credit, and the institution of Regulation X, applying to real estate construction credit, were steps in the direction of tighter con· trol over the volume of credit. The more restrictive Regula· tion W began to be effective in achieving the desired objec. tive almost immediately, as the outstanding volume of con· sllmer instalment credit rose only slightly during the fourth quarter of 1950 and then declined by almost 81,000,000,000 This publication was digitized and made available by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' Historical Library (FedHistory@dal.frb.org) 2 MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW during the first 7 months of 1951. Following congressional relaxation of terms in August, the trend of instalment credit turned upward. The large amount of outstanding uncovered real estate mortgage commitments when Regulation X was instituted delayed the promptness of its effectiveness, but by mid·1951 it was generally recognized that the Regulation was exerting a measure of restrictiveness in the mortgage fIeld. BANK LOANS ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS 81L L ION5 OF DOLL"I'IS ell.L IO NS o r 60 DOLLARS .sO ~------.~--4--------~'O Late in December 1950 the Board of Governors of the federal Reserve System announced an increase in member bank reserve requirements, which was calculated to absorb about $2,400,000,000 of reserve funds. Inasmuch as the System was supporting Government security prices at the time, however, banks were able to offset the effects of the in· crease in reserve requirements, to a considerable extent, by the sale of Governments at par or a premium to the System. Nevertheless, there was the restrictive influence of higher reserve percentages and, also, the freezing of funds obtained from the sale of Governments as required reserves; if reo serve requirements had not been increased, banks would have been able to sell such bonds at their own discretion and use the funds for the purpose of expanding loans. By far the most significant credit development occurred early in March, when the Federal Reserve-Treasury "accord" with regard to System support of Government security prices was reached_ Although the System, through its open market operations, assured an orderly market for Government securities, prices of Governments-within the limits of orderly movements-were permitted to decline in accordance with market evaluations_ As long as prices of Governments were supported by the System at par or above, such securities were the virtual equivalent of cash, and the initiative with respect to the availability of bank reserves rested largely with banking and non banking investors who held Governments in their portfolios. Following the "accord" and the subsequent price movements, this situation no longer prevailed, as banks and other investors became less willing to convert Governments at a market loss. The result was that the System regained a considerable measure of control over the availability of bank reserves, and, as a consequence, a much firmer money market and a gradual rise in interest rates developed. The Voluntary Credit Restraint Program, which was ini· tiated in March 1951 under the authority of the Defense Production Act but at the request of responsible leaders in commercial banking, insurance, and investment banking, also has played an important part in checking the growth of private credit. Bankers and other lenders operating under the Program have done a very commendable job in screening 1950 1951 loan applications with a view toward reducing to a minimum nonessential, speculative, and inflationary loans. It is never possible to measure statistically the effect of such a restrictive program, for, in the first place, there is no way of knowing what the loan volume would have been under different circumstances, and, secondly, numerous other forces were exerting their influence upon credit demand and supply at the same time. Loan figures, however, lend impressive su pport to the work of the Program. For instance, during the period of seasonal loan demand between August 1 and December 5, 1951, total loans of the Nation's weekly reporting member banks increased only $2,050,000,000, as compared with an increase of $4,228,000,000 in the same period of 1950; in the Eleventh District the comparable increases were $114,000,000 and $221,000,000. Furthermore, as indicative of the success of the effort on the part of bankers to eliminate nonessential or speculative loans, figures show that a very substantial proportion of the loan increase during the past 4 months was the result of seasonal loans associated with the crop movement and defense and defense-supporting loans. Price and wage controls instituted in January 1951 also had a restraining effect upon the trend of prices-both at wholesale and retail-even thou gh such controls have been less rigid and have permitted advances in prices of many commodities and of wages. Although direct controls of these types in a period of inflation may be needed, they should be supported by adequate general controls with respect to the availability of credit, the management of the federal debt, and fiscal policy. The notable improvement in the nature and effectiveness of general controls during 1951 made it possible for the direct controls to serve a useful purpose as one type of tool in the anti-inflationary kit. The trend of prices MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW PRICE TRENDS ~ERC[HT PER CENT 200 200 RETAI L :r .' og3~ . 39. IOO~ •• ~ ---:-;O -........ •••••••••••••••••• 1,. 1701 - - - • •••••••• ••• . . . . . . . . ......... ' 150 \ - - - - - - 1 - - - - - - - --..,150 WHOLE SALE 11 926 -(00 ) 12.f---------t----------j125 Io o , f - - - - -- - - - t - - - -- - - - - - j 100 o} I ~ 1 w j ~ 1 ~ 1950 N Tj N! M J ~ To 1951 SOURC E D,p,dlllu! 01 Lo bo., during the year cannot be attributed entirely, or perhaps even largely, to price and wage controls, but, nevertheless, these measures certainly contributed to holding the increase in the cost of living to 3,25 percent between January 15 and October 15 and to the decline of 1 percen t in the compre· hensive wholesale price index. Materials control s and the expansion program in such basic in du stries as steel, aluminum, electric power, petro· leum refining, and chemicals progressed significantly during 1951 and helped the economy to support the planned defense and military production, as well as a large volume of civilian production, without serious dislocations or shortages. Gov· ernment aids in the form of rapid tax amortization and di· rect loans and loan guarantees played a part in speeding up the expansion program. Total industrial production /luctu· 3 ated narrowly during the year within a range of 223 to 217 (1935·39=100) except during July when mass vacations in industry contributed to a temporary decline to 212. During the year the gradual but steady increase in production for defense purposes tended to offset cutbacks in the production of civilian goods as a result of material shortages and some· what lessened consumer demands. Farm production in 1951 was at an all· time high of some 143 percent of the 1935·39 average. This record production, together with a large carry·over of many commodities from the previous year, met all domestic and export requirements, with the result that farm prices averagcd lower at the year's end than during last February and March. This downturn in farm commodi ty prices was important in helping to stem the advance in the cost of living, particularly in the cost of food and clothing. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES BILLION' 22 • or 8 1LLlOHS 01" OOLL"" S ()OLLlRS 2 25 I 20 0 / 11 l/ / ~ / ' i'... 2 00 • "00 I '" ihd 3rt' OU.'HER 1950 .. . , I '" '" QUARTER ... I .0 0 1951 SOURC E OtpO.r", tM o f Com m .. ~t. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION F. R. II . INDEX - ( 1935-39-100 ) , PERCENT 00 0 -, 2 .0 25 0 '0 o~ r- " 00 I• 0 15 0 I00 10 0 °TIIIi.JJl lb~rJ 1950 .JJlj 1951 A1° Despite increases in tax ratcs upon incomes, the Nation"s disposable income rose from an annual rate of approximately $217,000,000,000 during the first quarter of the year to almost $225,000,000,000 during the third quarter, with a furth er increase probable during !be closing 3 months of the year. An increase in personal net savings took place, how· ever, with the annual rate rising from $8,500,000,000 in the first quarter to the unusually large rate of more !ban $22,. 000,000,000 in the third quarter. This increasc in net sav· ings does not represent entirely an increase in liquid assets, since substantial amounts of debt repayment are included in the figures. Jn part, this large increase in personal saving re/lects a reduction in the annual rate of personal consump· tion expenditures during the period of about $5,700,000,000, 4 MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW placing the total for the third quarter of 1951 at the level that prevailed during the same quarter a year earlier. This tendency on the part of consumers to restrict their purchases and to forego the creation of substantial additional indebtedness but, instead, to add to their liquid assets and liquidate a portion of their past debts was an important anti.inflationary development; moreover, it undoubtedly was closely associated with the more restrictive credit policy of the period and was also a reaction to the excessive consumer buying that occurred during most of the 7 months following the outbreak of the Korean war. Somewhat in contrast with these various developments that tended to work in the direction of stabilizing the econ· omy, other developments during the year in certain economic areas were strongly stimulative and expansive. Underlying these stimulative forces, of course, was the defense program with increasing emphasis upon military and defense produc· tion, a rising volume of government expenditures, and a consequent increase in the demand of Government for the ation's goods and services. It is estimated that at the end of 1950, or the beginning of 1951, the proportion of our gross national product being diverted to defense purposes was about 8 percent. This pro· portion rose gradually but, nevertheless, steadily during the year and is now estimated in the neighborhood of 13 per· cent, with further increases expected as the months pass. Defense production tended to prevent an increase in the volume of goods and services available for private consumption, as materials, plants and equipment, and labor gradually were diverted to the more pressing military demands_ Another area of economic activity providing a strong stimulus during the year was that of business capital expendi· tures. As businesses undertook to expand their productive capacities to meet the dual objectives of a high level of civilian consumption and the goals of thc defen se program, expenditures for plant and equipment rose very sharply and I"~ached an all-time high during the year. In the first iI months of 1951 such expenditures were estimated at an annual rate of $20,660,000,000, but by the third quarter of the year the rate had increased to $27,200,000,000. The growth in such expenditures was most pronounced in manufacturing and tends to support the often-stated opinion that during the year much of the expansion that took place was toward building plant facilities to turn out vast quantities of necessary goods as the occasion may arisc_ Finally, a record volume of new construction, including residential and other, resulted during the year. Due to rna· terial and credit restrictions, the volume of residential con· struction was well under the 1950 record total, when about 1,400,000 units were started, but, nevertheless, the total of perhaps 1,000,000 new starts for 1951 approximates the former record of slightly more than 1,000,000 starts in 1949_ In terms of monthly average value of new construction, the figures for 1951 slightly exceeded the monthly average of $2,325,000,000 reported in the preceding year. These strongly stimulative developments tended to balance out the effects of various actions discussed earlier in this article, with the consequence that several of the major indexes of economic activity, when charted out on a month.bymonth basis, reflect a relatively level or balanced trend. The charts presented in this article showing the trends of consumer prices, wholesale prices, industrial production, commercial bank loans, total business inventories, and personal consumer expenditures during the years 1950 and 1951 appear to give support to this position of over-all economic stability. When we turn to the outlook for economic activity in 1952, more lhan tl,e usual number of uncertainties immediately appear, with many of them being associated directly with the various possibilities in the international situation and the extent to which the defense program, as it unfolds during the months ahead, will be the dominating factor. Perhaps with respect to the international situation one can only make assumptions. The most logical of those assump· tions at this time, from the standpoint of one not inti· mately involved in international discussions and contacts, is that approximately the present degree of tension will con· tinue internationally; that no appreciable improvement will occur in relations between Russia and the Communist Bloc, on the one hand, and the Western Democracies, on the other. One may also assume, with some justification, that a cessa· tion of hostilities in Korea will not change greatly the magnitude or timing of the defense prof,'T am as it is now blueprinted_ On the basis of these assumptions, the defense program shou ld continue to be the dominant factor in sustaining boom levels of economic activity durin g 1952. Expenditures for defense, already in very substantial amounts, will move toward peak levels during the last half of the year. Thc Government will take a larger share of our production of goods and services-a share estimated to reach 20 percent at the peak of tl,C program-and, consequently, government expenditures can be expected t.o rise above currcnt levels. Business trends during the first G months of 1952 may reflect a more or less sideways movement, due to the probability of seasonal adjustments in tl,e first quarter and early part of the second quarter of the year_ Rising defense and government expenditures, together with some dcgree of MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW deficit financing during the last half of the year, may tend to stimulate inflationary forces and contrihute to somewhat higher economic indexes than those currently prevailing. It is virtually certain that thete will be a full demand for the Nation's growing labor force, although there may be islands of unemployment spotted here and there over the country. The labor problem during 1952 will surely be one of finding adequate and properly trained workers and not a problem of meeting an appreciable unemployment situa· tion. Plant facilities also will be utilized fully, and, in addi· tion, new plants started during the past 12 to 18 months will be brought into production. As a consequence, we should expect that industrial production should rise to higher levels during 1952 than in the year just closed. As previously noted, the index of industrial production flue· tuated generally within a range of 6 points under the peak of 223 reached in April 1951. The rate of growth in pro· duction during 1952 may not be as substantial as the ap· proximate 10-percent incrcase of 1951 but might be in the neighborhood of 5 percent. If so, the volume of goods avail· able to the civilian economy would not be greatly different from that available during 1951, but a larger amount of goods would be moving to defense and mi litary purposes. Business capital expenditures, while probably not reach· ing the record level of 1951, nevertheless, will continue in large volume. Estimates [or the first quarter of 1952 place such expenditures on an annual rate bllsis of about $23,000.000,000. Gradually during the year the amount might be expected to taper off somewhat. In other words. while not providing an additional stimulative force. such expenditures 5 will be so large as to avoid any deflationary tendencies in so far as this factor is concerned. It is probable that businesses will continue efforts to reduce inventories and to bring stocks of goods into better balance. Inasmuch as it is not likely that serious shortages will develop, at least during the first 6 months of the year, there is little reason to anticipate a change in buying practices of businesses or consumers. If, during later months, the availability of goods should begin to reflect more noticeable shortages, the possibility of increased business and consumer buying might develop. Personal income will almost certainly rise above 1951 levels, as will disposable income after taxes. Levels of consumer personal expenditures, consequently, will depend on individuals' decisions as to spending and saving. On the whole, however, it is probable that even though net saving continues at a relatively high rate, the annual rate of personal consumption expenditures will l'un slightly above the 1951 figure. Price movements, although probably pomtmg upward, should be relatively moderate. Strong demand for goods and services, together with adequate purchasing power and the added factor of higher wage rates and costs of doing business, points toward a somewhat higher price level both at wholesale and retail. A moderate increase in prices of 3 to 5 percent during the year does not at this time appear improbable. This assumes, however, that anti-i"nationary measures, both of a general and direct type, are maintained at least as effectively as during the past year and that consumers conti nue to exercise restraint in their huying. 6 MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW REVIEW OF BUSINESS, INDUSTRIAL, AGRICULTURAL, AND FINANCIAL CONDITIONS Christmas trade at department stores in the Eleventh Federal Rese rve Dis· trict rose to a new high, to exceed the previous record set in 1950 by about 6 percent. Nevertheless, sales of a substantial number 01 stores failed to equal their 1950 volume or, at least, did not come up to the merchants' expectations, wruch had been bolstered by the rugh level of sales in November. November sales were the most favorable for any month since January 1950 and were 13 percent above a year earlier after seasonal ad j ustment. Nonfarm employment in the District reached a new high under the impetus of the continued expansion in defense employment and the large seasonal increase in retail trade employment. Crude oil production in December declined for the second consecutive month, as near· record levels of stocks brought about a further reduction in Texas allow abies. An additional cut in allowables was announced for January. The value of construction contract awards in the District in November was down 13 percent from October and was 29 percent lower than a year earlier. Production goals for farmers in trus District in 1952, an· nounced recently by the United States Department of Agri· culture, call for an increase of about 15 percent in volume of crops on approximately 3 percent more acres than in 1951. The depletion of subsoil moisture during the current lon g and ",cidespread drought in the District may be a serious obstacle in meeting the production goals. The District's winter wheat crop is expected ro fall considerably below the Government's goal, as the drought has reduced the acreage seeded and prospective yields per acre. Pasture feed is scarce over most of the District, and the condition of livestock is below nor· mal for trus season of the year. Loans of weekly reportin g member banks in the District rose over $45,000,000 in the 4 weeks ended December 19, to reach a new record of about $1,566,000,000, or approxi. mately $99,000,000 more than a year earlier. The net in· crease between November 21 and December 19 represents largely seasonal demands of cotton and other commodity dealers. New loans to defense contractors comprised almost 8 percent of the new commercial and industrial loans during the 4 weeks ended December 19, a considerably higher pro· portion than in most other recent weeks. In this connection, data released by 4·5 of the Nation's large life insurance companies indicate that 46 percent of the S4,OOO,OOO,OOO total of loan and investment commitments outstanding na· tionally on October 31 was for defense and defense·support. ing activities. The total dollar volume of Christmas business at department stores in the Elev· enth Federal Reserve District reached a record level, exceeding moderately the previous high of the 1950 Christmas. Nevertheless, the Christmas trade did not come up to merchants' expectations, wruch had been bolstered by an upturn in consumer buying in October and a very good November business. Moreover, the sales volume of a substantial number of stores fell below their previous year's performance. It should be pointed out, however, that the 1950 Christmas business was inHated by a substantial amount of war· scare buying. Store traffic was heavier during this past Christmas season than in most prior years, and the number of purchases is reported to have been larger. It should be pointed out, how· ever, that a little less was spent for the average purchase than the year before, despite the hi gher prices. Consumer buying emphasis appears to have been on the moderately priced and practical items. Sales of children's wear were excellent, and a good volume of toys, women's apparel, and costume jewelry was reported. Although televi sion sales were substantially above year·earlier levels, sales of most other homefurnishings items were lower. The lower average value of gi ft purchases contributed to making this past Christmas a less profitable one for mer· chants, since less costly items tend to have lower profit mar· gins and handling costs are larger in relation to the size of the sale. Moreover, markdowns for inventory clearance purposes, wruch had characterized the Bummer and fall months, continued even into the Christmas season as a profit. reducing factor. The higher labor and other operating costs prevailing in 1951 also served to lower profits. The aggregate sales at district department stores for the principal holiday buying period-the '4 weeks from Thanksgiving to Christmas-averaged 6 percent hi gher than in the corresponding weeks of 1950. Trus increase is larger than that of most other districts of the Nation. The Christmas trade of department stores in the Nation as a whole averaged just about the same as the year before, 'and four districts experienced a lower volume than in 1950. The district department store sales picture in Novemher was the most favorable for any month since last January. RETAIL TRADE STATISTICS (Percentage chonge' STOCICSI NET SALES Hov. 1951 from 11 mo.195t Line of trode by area DEPARTMENT STORES Total Sevenlh Distrid ••••• •. . •• ... • Corpu, CArllti ••••••• ••••••• •.•. •• Dello l ••••.••..••••••••••••.••.• B Paso •• . •.•• .. •••••• •• •••••••• Fori Worth • .•...••• ••.•••••••••• Houston ••••••••••••••••••••••••• San Antonio ••••••.••••.••••.••.• Shreve port, La .•••••••••••••• • •••• Woco ••••••••.•••••••..•.•. ••.• Olner cilies •••. • • ••.•••. .... •••• . FURNITURE STORES Tolol Beventh District •••....•• . •.•. .... ustln ••••..•....•..•.•••.•••... Dallas " .• ,', . ,"',." .• , •• •• •• , Houston, ••• , •• ,., •• , ', ••. .••• ••• Po rt Arthur ••.••••••••••••••• • e •• Son Antonio ..•..•••.••••.••••••• Sh.reveport. lo .••••..............• Wichita Falls •••• •••.•••.•••••••• . HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCE STORES Total Eleve-nth District ..... .. . ,., ••• Dalla1 .•• •••••••• •• •• •••••••• • , • I Stocks at end of month. Nov. Oct, 1950 195 1 13 25 9 9 9 19 18 17 20 12 3 10 18 10 20 6 12 7 8 11 18 10 66 45 42 26 5 7 _1 1 -1 16 50 -9 7 -16 7 _1 8 -. camp. with 11 mo.1950 5 3 1 2 2 15 1 5 10 3 Nov. 1951 from Nov. Oct. 1950 1951 -1 -2 -3 2 -8 3 -3 11 7 -1 -1 _3 _2 _2 _1 1 -5 -2 -7 -3 -9 4 3 -s -s -2 -7 -7 5 -2 _8 7 MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW November sales were up 12 percent from October, a sub· stantially larger·than·seasonal increase, and were 13 percent higher than a year earlier. The increase in sales was distrib· uted over most of the important department store items, with the exception of some homefurnishin gs, such as furniture and carpeting. Sales of women's and misses' dresses were 17 percent higher than in November 1950, while sales of worn· en's and misses' coats and suits were 12 percent higher. Men's. clothing sales posted a year·to·year gain of 10 per· cent. While sales of some of the homefurnishings items tended to lag, television and radio sales ran 73 percent higher th an a year earli er and major applian ce sales, 24 percent higher. Cumulative department store sales for the first 11 months of 1951 were 5 percent above the level of the same period in the preceding year. ANNOUNCEMENT The Federal Reserve Balik of Dallas has revised the indexes of department store sales and stocks for the Eleventh Federal Reserve District for the period 1919 to date. Current revisions of indexes have beell made simultaneously by each of the 12 Federal Reserve banks as a joint project with the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. The index base period has been shifted to 1947·49 from 1935·39, and indexes of department store sales and stocks hereafter will be published by this bank for the Eleventh Federal Reserve District on the 1947·49 base period only, except for the l·month overlap shown in the table below_ For the convenience of those who may wish to maintain indexes of department store sales and stocks on the 1935·39 base, this bank will furnish, upon request, such revised indexes from January 1919 through No· vember 1951, as well as a factor which may be U3ed to convert indexes on the 1947·49 base to the 1935·39 base. WHOtESAtE TRADE STATISTICS Eleventh Federal Reserve District IPen:entoge I;honge) NET SALESp STOCKS'p Nov. 1951 from Nov. 1951 from - ,..,--- - : - - 11 mo.1951 - -- - -- No'll, line of trade Automotive supplies • .• •••..• Drugs and sundries ••• .... ..• Dry goods •• ••... • .....•.. • Groury (full·line wholesa le rs not sponsoring groups)•• .. • Hardware • • •••• • ••• ••••••• Industrial supplies • ••. • . • •. .• Machinery equipment and sup- plies except .I~tricol . • •..• Melal •••.• •• • • •• • •••.•.. • R.friveration equipment, ports (commercial) •.••• • ....... Tobacco products •.••••• •• .• Wines and liquors ••• • ••. • .• Wiring "up plies, corutruction mate ria l" distributon • • • •• • 1950 1951 Oct. compo with 11 mo. 1950 Nov. 1950 24 5 4 30 -6 -7 10 -2 69 8 -3< 10 -7 16 15 7 13 - I -5 18 25 7 4 10 30 - I -8 18 -29 -10 -41 -35 31 36 7 8 7 -8 12 -15 -13 7 13 - 1 19 Pamphlets giving detailed information on, the revi· sions and adjustments, as well as on the methodology used ill the compilation of the indexes, may be ob· tained from the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Ocl. 1951 -3 _1 INDEXES OF DEPARTMENT STORE SALES AND STOCKS -8 Stocks at end of month. p-Preliminory. , Indicates chang e of leu than one·half of 1 percent. SOURCE: United Sta tes Bureau of Census. 11947·49 -1 001 UNADJUSTED I The policy of inventory reduction which merchants have been following since late last spring continued in November and December. District department store stocks declined slightly during November, in contrast with the moderately rising pattern which usually prevails at this time of year, and at the end of the month were 1 pcrcent below a year earlier. Althou gh merchants had succeeded in reducing their heavy stocks substantially by November 30 and a further marked decrcase undoubtedly occurred during December, it appears that the year·end level of stocks is still a little higher than most merchants would prefer. Nevertheless, the major portion of the inventory readjustment probably has been achieved. Orders outstanding rose 14 percent in November, but continued below year·earlier levels for the sixth consecu· tive month. It will be noted, ho wever, that the 9.pcrcent year·to· year decline in orders outstanding on November 30 was smaller than that prevailing at any time during the five previous months. Althou gh district furniture store sales in November failed to show the usual seasonal gai n over the very large October volum e, they were the highest for any Novembcr since 1947. Sales were down 1 percent from October but were III per· cent higher than a year earlier. Furniture store stocks declin cd 3 percent in November, markin g the seventh conse· Nov. Area SALES-Daily overage Beventh District •• •• . •••• • • • Dallas ••••••••.••• • •••••. • Houston ••..•. •••••••••• . • • STOCKS-End of month Eleventh District ••••••••.•.• Od. Sept. ADJUSTEDI Nov. Nav. Cd. 1951 1951 1951 1950 1951 1951 144 141 157 119 118 121 124 120 142 135 136 138 Sept. Hov. 1951 1950 127 129 132 129 122 140 114 110 122 115 108 130 113 112 118 137 120 125 135 122 (1935·39-1001 UHADJUSTED Nov. 1951 SALES-Daily averoge Eleventh District •• ••.•• • •••• Oallos .••••• • •.•.•. •• ..•.• HOUlton ••••••.•••••.•.•..• STOCKS-End of month Eleveflth District •• • ••••• • ••• I Od. 1951 525 485 607 476 ADJUSTEDI Nov. ex•. Sept. Ho .... 1951 1950 1951 1951 1951 1950 Sept. Nov. 437 408 468 441 401 529 472 446 527 H5 401 502 405 371 426 409 361 494 400 369 435 474 488 495 429 452 474 446 Adjusted for seasonal variation. cutive monthly decline, and at the end of the month were 5 percent lower than a year earlier, the first year· to· year de· cline in 19 months. New car registrations in the Houston and San Antonio metropolitan areas declined noticeably from October to No· vember but in the Dallas metropolitan area showed a small increase. The November Houston and San Antonio registra. tions were lower than in all but one of the preceding 12 months and were below the corresponding months of 1950 and 1949. Although Dallas registrations were about 12 per· cent less tllan in November 1950, they were about 4 percent above the relatively high November 1949 levitt. MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 8 The United States Department of Agri. cultme is asking the Nation's farmers to produce a record volume .of crops in 1952. A new high Icvel of livestock proexpectcd. Farm production should total about 149 percent of 1935·39 if these goals and expectations are . realized. This would compare ffith an estimated 143 percent for 1951 and 141 percent for 1949. Increased per acre yields and more efficient use of all agricultural resources are essential to the success of the 1952 program. The Department is urging producers of cotton and feeds to make every effort to increase production by obtaining higher yeilds on the available acreagc. Corn and' grain sorghums should be given prior claim on land over less productive grain crops. The acreage goals thus far announced, plus probable acreage of other crops, would require 4,500,000 to 5,500,000 acres more cropland than in 1951, which was a near record. AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AND GOALS ( 1 935-39-100) RCENT "0 I. I I ~1 I ", 1. / " UN ITED STATES 14 40 ~''':- RIJ/"'U'" }.•~r.::.'" ~ :I :'''''r.... //-~\..".~,~ '0 ..... ..... o o L.. I I ~TEXAS 10 00 • 0 00 •0 •o 40 40 • •o 0 0 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 * GOALS "'" .. ,0 SOURCE: U. S . OI,o.l_nl.f A;rlcYII.r • . CROP ACREAGE GOALS FOR 1952 (In thotnonds of acres) five southwestern states I Telilos 1952 goal 1951 Crop 1952 indicated goal of 1951 Indicated 170 • •726 994 6.416 21 544 2.675 1.600 200 5.200 932 6.400 21 540 112 102 118 110 94 100 100 99 12,486 11 ,9 15 Sweet pototoes •• 47 24 28 150 27 42 91 319 110 150 Total ••••••• 29,406 29.702 99 Com • • ••• •. ••• • Oatl ••.••••.••• Barley, •.•.•..•• Grain sorghums •• Hoy •••• •• •••••• Wheat ••• '" ••• Rye • • ••••• ••• •• Rice ••••••• •••• • Dry edible beons. Corton •••••••••• Flaxseed •••••••• Irish potaloes ••. • 2.378 os percent 1,572 1951 IndicQted 1952 goal 1952 goal as pe rcent of 1951 Indicated 15,856 55 59 94 72 1.155 132 15.390 164 64 149 109 100 94 108 98 105 100 99 152 92 298 109 159 47,586 48,867 100 .4,572 2,Bl1 478 6.130 2,774 13.436 72 1.162 87 .4.993 2,820 450 6.646 2,707 1.4,125 1 Arlxona. louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Telltas. SOURCE: United States Department of Agricul~ure. The total of acreage goals for the five states of the Eleventh District, as set forth by the Department of Agriculture, shows little change from the acreage planted in 1951. However, goals for individual crops indicate the desirability of some shift in land use, as shown in the accompanying table. The Department is asking farmers in this area to devote less land to production of barley, hay, rice, and cotton, but to increase their acreage of corn, oats, grain sorghums, wheat, dry edible beans, flaxseed, and' potatoes. The distribution of cropland among individual crops as provided by the goals for 1952 indicates a shift toward a more usual pattern of land use than was followed in 1951, when very large acreages of cotton and rice were planted. Should farmers in this area comply ffith the acreage goals, and at the same time contribute their share to thc increase in production of major crops requested by the Department of Agriculture, it will be necessary to increase the average yield per acre OVer 1951. While farmers in the Southwest generally may be ffilling to give due consid'eration to the Agriculture Department's requests when making tbcir plans for production in 1952, scrious difficultics may be encountered. The c'ontinued drought ovcr a major part of Texas and in parts of adjoining states, together with labor shortages, high wage rates, and possible shortages of fertilizer, insecticides, and equipment, presents problems which must be faced. Scattered rains have been received in most sections since September, but fall rains were far below normal and the moisture received has been mostly dissipated. Farms throughout perhaps two· thirds of the crop· producing part of the District have very little if any sW3soil moisture, and there is a critical need for good, soaking rains. The effect of the drought on crop production in 1952 is already evident. The winter wheat crop, as well as crops of other small grains and winter legumes, generally has made very poor progress. Much of the wheat crop was seeded' in dust and was late germinating, or was destroyed from lack of moisture. Acreage planted to winter wheat in Texas totaled only about 5,323,000 acres; the 1952 goal is 6,400,000 acres, which is about the same as that planted for harvest in 1951 but well below the 7,587,000 acres planted for the 1947 crop. The 1951 crop of only 17,000,000 bushels compares with a 1940·49 average of 63,000,000 bushels and a 1947 record of 124,000,000 bushels. WINTER WHEAT ACREAGE {In thousands of acres} For harvest in Slat. 1950 1951 1952 Arizona •• •• • ••••• .• •••••• •• • ••••••••• •• • Ne .... Mexico ••• • ••• •••••••• •••••••••• • • •• Oklahoma • • ••••••• •••••••• •• ••• •••••.••• Telltos ••• . •••. .. ••• .•... •• • ...• ..• •••••• 30 560 5.910 5.601 26 700 25 630 6.140 6,265 6,049 5,323 SOURCE: United State., Deportment of Agriculture. The Department of Agriculture is asking Texas farmers to produce 60,000,000 bushels of wheat and Oklahoma growers to produce 76,000,000 bushels in 1952; current production forecasts are approximately 40,000,000 bushels and 80,000,00 bushels, respectively, for the two states. The De· partment has asked for a 10-percen t increase over 1951 in sorgh um grain acreage in Texas, and this goal probably will be met if moisture conditions permit; if the intended wheat acreage is shifted to sorghums, the goal may be exceeded. MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW Commercial vegetables in south Texas have made good progress in recent weeks as moisture supplies have been more ample and temperatures have been favorable for growing crops. However, acreages of most winter crops are sharply below a year ago. Smaller crops of carrots and lettuce are in prospect. The winter cabbage, beet, and Irish potato crops are far below average. Furthermore, growers' reports of in· tentions to plant potatoes for the early spri ng crop in the Lower Valley are 15 percent under the small acreage of 1950 and 79 percent below average. It is expected that production of commercial vegetables in tbis area will be far below gov· ernment goals. During December light supplies of tcnder vegetablcs continued to move from the Lower Valley, while harvest of tomatoes at Laredo continued in fair volume and supplies of carrots, lettuce, and spinach were largely from the Winter Garden. 9 August 1. All states of the Eleventh District made substantial gains in cotton production in 1951, although yields per acre in Oklahoma, Texas, and New Mexico were well below aver· age. Oklahoma with an average yield of 149 pounds of lint per harvested acre had the lowest yield in the Nation, while Texas reported 167 pounds per acre for the second' lowest of any state. All parts of Texas reported lower yields than in 1950, with the exception of upper coastal and east Texas counties and irrigated sections in the west. Irrigated farms of Arizona produced 74.1 pounds per acre, COTTON, YIELD AND PRODUCTION Texas Crop Reporting Districts YielD per harvested acre (pounds) PRODUOION 500 lb. gran weight bales (thousands) 1951 Average Crop repOt'ling district CASH RECEIPTS FROM FARM MARKETINGS (In thousands of dollars) Cumulative receipts October September Stote 1951 1950 1951 1950 Arizono ........... $ 15,76 3 $ 16,717 $ 40,177 $ 36,189 louisiana.. ...... .. 47,402 47,104 72,041 52,132 NewMexico ....... 12 ,0 11 10,11063,128 {)5,747 61,083 SO,OIS 85,194 65,519 Oklahoma. .. ...... Texas ....... ..... 220,343 217,263 299,577 288,997 January _ 1951 Odober 1950 $ 213,253 $ 177,747 269,011 217,204 168,735 142,611 484,193 446,065 1,590,855 1,629,539 Total ......... $356,602 $3041,209 $560,117 $498,584 $2,726,047 $2,613,166 I·N Northem High Plains . .... 1·5 Southern High Plains •.... . Red Bed Ploins . .... ..... Western Cross Timbers ...• Bleck (lnd Grand Prairies .. EastTexas Timbered Plains Trans·Pecos ............ . Edwards Plat.au ........ Southern Texas Prairiel ... Coostol Prairies ......... South Texas Plains ....... Stole .............. . 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1940· 49 1950 203 202 178 135 158 145 481 140 184 232 262 181 1951 indicated Average Dec. 1 1940·49 272 230 207 110 157 121 462 201 198 264 355 211 indicated Dec. 1 81 589 569 40 723 253 99 43 296 133 223 89 722 548 16 557 120 143 48 230 122 351 320 950 515 25 640 190 225 17 288 250 680 3,049 298 172 109 63 114 126 502 43 137 324 338 167 1950 2,946 4,100 SOURCE: United States Deparlment of Agriculture. SOURCE: United State. Deportment of Agriculture. Citrus fruit production in district states is the smallest in many years. Groves in Texas and Louisiana suffered serious damage from a freeze in February 1951, and the commercial production for the 1951·52 season will be negligible. In Texas, growing conditions were favorable during late 1951; supplies of irrigation water were ample. Most of the season's short crop was expected to move during the Christmas season, except for the small production of Valencias, which will not mature until later. Arizona oranges are estimated at 1,025,· 000 boxes, and grapefruit, at 2,800,000 boxcs- down a fourth and a tenth, respectively, from last season, The continuation of the drought bas had severe effects upon ranges and pastures throughout the western two·thirds of the District, and dry range and pasture feed is scarce in most areas. The condition of ranges in Texas on December 1 was cstimated at 16 percent below normal for that date. Winter grain crops have provided relatively little grazing for live· stock, and supplemental feeding of cottonseed cake, range cubes, and roughage has been necessary over much of the District. Feed shortages and chilling winds have caused fur· ther shrinkage of livestock, The condition of livestock in Texas in December was substantially below normal for the month, with cattle down 6 percent and sheep and goats down 13 percent. CITRUS FRUIT PRODUCTION LIVESTOCK RECEIPTS (In tt)Ousands of bOJlles) IHumber) Average of 10 seasons ended 1950 Indicated 1949·50 1950·51 1951·52 November November ARIZONA Oranges ... ......•....... . Grapefruit . .. .. •........ .. LOUISIANA Oronges. .......•.... • ... . TEXAS Oranges ................. . Gra pefruit . . ..... ... ...... FORT WORTH MARKET 905 985 3,29.4- 3.400 1,400 3,150 1,025 2,800 308 360 300 50 3,616 1.760 6.400 2,700 7,500 350 250 17,387 SOURCE; United Stotes Depa rtment of Agriculture. The unfavo rable outlook at present for crop production in the District in 1952, as weli as estimates of production in 1951, reflects the widespread drought over the District during the past 6 months or more. The December 1 colton production report shows a United States crop of 15,290,000 bales, or some 2,000,000 less than was indicated at the beginning of the harvest season. The Texas crop estimate was placed at 4,100,000 bales, as against a 5,000,000·bale estimate on October SAN ANTONIO MARKET November November Clan 1951 1950 1951 1951 1950 October 1951 Cattle ........ . . Calves ......... . Hogs ........ .• . Sheep ......... . 51,572 33,220 77,730 53,390 23,635 25.386 30.015 33,583 6,769 33,514 38,231 8,755 47,304 26,552 87,890 57,036 57,799 128,253 111,831 149,963 40,204 76,365 5,436 11 6,728 i Includes gooh. Meanwhile, livestock marketings continue at a relatively high level. During the 4 weeks ended December 15, receipts of cattle at the Fort Worth market totaled 34,000 head, up 1,000 from the same weeks of 1950. Receipts of calves, at 26,000 head, were up 3,000. Marketings of hogs totaled 18,500 head, or 3,000 more than a year earlier. Receipts of sheep and lambs reached 31,000 head, up 60 percent from the corresponding period of 1950. Commercial meat production in Texas during the first 10 months of 1951 totaled about 2 percent more than during the corresponding pcriod in 1950, MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 10 compared with a I-percent decline for the United States. More cattle and fewer hogs, calves, and sheep and lambs were slaughtered in the State during those months. LOANS Weekly Reporting Member Banks ELEVENTH FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT MIL lIO "'S Of" DOLL.ARS M I LL IONS Of' OOL.L.AAS After a rise of about 7 percent from September to November, the average of farm commodity prices in the District tended to level off in December, although price trends for individual commodities were mixed. Prices of wheat, corn, sorghum grain, and poultry advanced. Corn prices on the Fort Worth market reached the highest level since 1919, as No. 2 white corn rose to $2.67Y2 per bushel on December 10. Other grains are at the highest levels in more than 3 years. Middling 15/16-inch cotton in the Dallas market reached the season's high of 43.20 cents per pound on November 9 and held generally between 41 and 43 cents as late as December 20. Rice is holding at the support level. Prices of live· I • • 80 I,SS ..,.) 1,54 0 0 .......... 1,46 0 :--+-- . / i'-v 1,38 0 bu. cwt. cwt. cwt. cwt. cwl. lb. lb. lb. lb. lb. case lb. I. 380 ... 1,34 0 I. 340 ' ,l' 0 I. 300 .' .-4- ....·.....- 1,16 g J CORN, No.2 yellow, Fort Worth ...... SORGHUMS,No. 2 yellow milo, Fort Worth HOGS, Choice, Fort Worth ........... SLAUGHTER STEERS, Choice, fort Worth SLAUGHTER CALVES, Choice, Fort Worth SLAUGHTER LAMBS, Choice, Fori Worth. HENS, Heavy, Fort Worth . .. ........ . FRYERS, top grade, Fort Worth ........ TURKEYS, No.1 hens, Fort Worth ..... . BROILERS, East Te~as .............. . . BROILERS, South Texas ...•........... EGGS, graded, Fort Worth .•......... COnONSEED OIL, Fort Worth ........ 460 I. 4>0 ..// 1.18 Comparable .4190 2.821/.t 1.24% 2.281,4 3.13 19.00 35.00 34.00 30.00 .26 .30 .40 .28 .28 16.50 .13 "'~~':::~-::"" I .260 1950 I .2.2.0 ···r··-······· ••••• -j ••••• -• • Top Pric:;es Paid in local Southwest Markell Unit Dec. 20, 1951 .. :/ 1,22 0 Commodity:and:market ... I. 540 I. 500 _ .' 0 FARM COMMODITY PRICES conON, Middling 15/16-inch, Dallas . . lb. WHEAT, No.1 hord, Fort Worth ... .. .. bu. OATS. No.2 white, Fort Worth ........ bu. V 1951 0 Week ended / Comparable week I 1·····( I F M M A I J J A LOll W.dnudaJ 01 tll'lI'Ionlh I lgurtf S o I. 180 I. 160 N Oec wnUl week last yea r lost month .4220 2.80* 1.291A 2.221A 3.06 19.00 35.00 33.50 30.00 .27 .27 .40 .24 .25 18.90 . 13¥t .4300 2.64\4 1.18 1.881,4 2.57 20.00 31.50 31.S0 31.M stock at Fort Worth were rather weak during early December, with many classes losing as much as $2.00 per hundredweight. Price declines during late November and early December were noted also for cottonseed, peanuts, oats, and barley. prised almost 8 percent of all new commercial and industrial loans, a considerably higher proportion than in most other weeks. Investments in United States Government sec untIes rose $53,225,000, with Treasury bills more than accounting for the increase. Holdings of the latter increased $58,327,000, principally as a result of large subscriptions to the 20l-day Tax Anticipation Series bills issued on November 27. Qualified depositaries were pennitted to make payment for bills allotted for their own and customer accounts by credit to the Treasury Tax and Loan Accounts. Investments in Treasury CONDITION STATISTICS OF WEEKLY REPORTING MEMBER BANKS IN LEADING CITIES Loans of the weekly reporting member banks in the Eleventh District rose $45,228,000 between November 21 and De· cember 19 to a record of $1,565,884,000, continuing the rather sharp npward trend that had prevailed since October 3. This increase of about 3 percent compares with an expansion of about one·half of 1 percent during the comparable period of 1950. Commercial, industrial, and agricultural loans accounted for most of the increase during the 4 weeks ended December 19, although loans to banks and the category comprising consumer loans rose noticeably. The expansion in loans at the wcekly reporting member banks since early August reflects principally the extension of credit to meet the seasonal requirements of cotton and other commodity dealers. Loans to grain and milling concerns and manufacturers in the food and liquor lines also rose, but the decreases in other major categories of commercial and industrial loans were more than offsetting. During the 4 weeks ended December 19, new loans to defense contractors com- Eleventh Federal Reserve District (In thousands of dollan) II em Total loans (gross) and inveslmenn . .... .. . . Totalloans-Net ' ...... . . ........ . .. ... . Total loans-Grou ..... .. ..... .. .... ... . Commerciol, industrial, and ogricultural loans ......... . . . ................ . loons to brokers and dealers in securities .. Other loons for purchasing or c:orrying securities ..... ... .... ... .. . ....... . Real eilote loans .. ... .. . .. .. . ....... . loons to bonks .... ... ..... .......... . All other loonl ....... . . . .... ........ . Total investments .. ............ ...... .. . U. S. Treasury bills . .. ..... ... ... . ... . . U. S. Trea sury certificates of indebtedness. U. S. Treasury notes .. ................ . U. S. Government bonds {inc. gld. obligations) Other securities ...... ................ . Re$er~el with Federal Reler~e Bank ......... . Balances with domestic: bonks .............. . Demond deposits-adjusted! .......... ..... . Time deposits except Go~ernment ••••.•..•... United States Go~ernment deposits .... ...... . Interbank demand deposits . ...... . ........ . Borrowings from Federal Reserve Bonk ... .... . Dec. 19, 1951 Dec. 20, 1950 $2,970,893 1,549,565 1,565,884 $2,731.597 1,453,555 1,467,039 $2,867,862 1,504,273 1,520,6 56 1,091,473 9,0 80 1,025,463 7.697 1,046,318 8,955 54,767 120,292 2,336 287,936 1,405,00 9 316,563 158,243 179,466 581,562 169,175 585,931 465,030 2,377,288 452,173 83,498 909,561 8,500 57,935 114,835 57,881 123,281 923 283,298 1,347,206 258,236 151,140 193,358 579,875 164,597 596,0 89 432,052 2,300,777 431,990 87,390 874,511 6,000 21, 1951 No~. o 261,109 1,264,558 119,565 27.626 359,706 601,559 156,102 517,904 439,606 2,212,100 422,230 52,444 836,041 o I Afte r deductions for reserves and unallocah:d charge-affs. 1 Indud es all demand deposits other than interbank and United States Go~ernment, leu cosh items reported as on hand or in process of colleclion. MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW noles declined $13,892,000, with almost two-thirds of the decrease offset by increases in certificates and bonds_ Holdings of municipal and other non-Government securities rose $4,578,000_ On December 19 total investments of these banks amounted lo $1,405,009,000, which reflects an increase of 11 percent over the year-earlier total. Deposit lrends during the month included increases of $114,931,000 in demand deposils and $20,183,000 in time accounts_ Demand deposits of individuals, partnerships, and corporations rose $91,603,000, or 3_9 percent, principally as a result of the expansion in loans and invesbnents but also reflecting the seasonal increase in business and personal receipts in the larger trade centers of the District. Banks in Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio, Texas, showed the larger gains in these personal and business deposit accounts_ United States Government deposits declined somewhat, despite the sharp increasc during the first week of the period due to the special ofTering of Treasury bills, while inlerbank deposits rose $35,050,000_ Time deposits rose S20,183,000, principally as a result of the increase in deposits of states and political subdivisions_ Total deposits of the District's weekly reporting member banks rose to a record of $4,133,464,000 on December 19_ GROSS DEMAND AND TIME DEPOSITS OF MEMBER BANKS Eleventh Federal Reserve District (Averages of dolly figures. In thousands of dollon) COMBINED TOTAL Gross Dote demand Time RESERVE CITY BANKS Gross demand Time COUNTRY BANKS Gross d em and Time November 1949 .. $5,482,103 $636,996 $2,666,217 $408,479 52,815,8865228,517 Nove mber 1950 .. 6,087,614 657,25 8 2,951,134 406,100 3,136,480 251,158 July 1951. ...... 5,855,513 673,533 2,746,696 376,455 3,108,817 297,078 August 1951 ..... 5,966,447 672,892 2,807,435 373,116 3,159,012 299,776 September 1951. 6,169,109 675,186 2,917,338 371,361 3,251,771 303,825 October 1951 ... 6,361,591 681,258 3,017,115 373,996 3,344,476 307,262 November 1951 .. 6,592,87.4 686,144 3,101,804 376,802 3,491,070 309,342 During recent weeks the sharp upward trend in currency circulation that began earlier in the year continued_ Federal Reserve notes of this bank in actual circulation reached the low point for the year on March 26, or 4 to 6 weeks earlier than in other recent years, and rose $89,440,000 between that date and December 15_ This greater-than-seasonal increase compares with the expansion of 531,574,000 during the similar period in 1950_ In the Nation, money in circulation rose $1,999,000,000 from March 28 to December 12, as compared with 790,000,000 in the corresponding period of 1950_ The loan and investment commitments of life illilUrance companies, an important new series of financial data, were made public on December 20 by Governor Powell of the Federal Reserve Board, Chairman of the National Volunlary Credit Restraint Committee_ Tbese data, compiled for the Nalional Voluntary Credit Restraint Committee by the Life Insurance Association of America, do not permit a full appraisal of the Voluntary Credit Restraint Program as applied to life insurance companies, since they do not cover loans and investments deferred in accordance with the principles of the Program_ evertheless, lhey constitute a new and important source of information on the lending and inveslment activities of one of the major groups of financing institutions_ 11 COMMITMENTS OF 45 UFE INSURANCE COMPANIES TO ACQUIRE LOANS AND INVESTMENTS OCTOBER 19511 (In millions of dollars) H.w commitments during moolt'! Amount TOlal commitments . ..... State. provincial, and local governments.,., O.fense-Iotal ..... . . Public utilities . ..... Railroads ... ...... 8usiness and indusfria l coocerns ..... Nondefense-foto l .... Business and indus· trial concerm; . .... Farm purchasers . ..• Nonfarm home purcho ~ers •• •• ••• • Tola l Commilmenll outstanding at end of month Amount Percent Percenl Commitments expected to be take n down within 6 months Amounl Percent $758.1 100_0 $4,036_8 511.5 $362.8 41.3 4_5 47.9 $1,867.1 317_0 $383_8 41.8 1,268_2 50_6 $2,119.0 32.2 20_8 '.2 9"".8 96.2 23.4 2.4 56".2 8".5 22_5 3_4 194_3 25.6 1,078.0 26.7 794.0 31.7 157.3 1.5 5_5 0.6 $50.7 395.4 203_5 100.0 $2,505_5 1.3 100.0 $36.4 L4 46.2 $1_026.4 9_8 239.5 158.4 41.0 9_6 6.3 31.4 628.4 52_5 $1,442_6 25.1 57_6 5.0 I Includes busine" mortgage loons of leu thon $100,000 and foreign inveslmenb, neither of which was reported prior to September. SOURCE: Compiled by the life Insurance Associotion of America in accordance wilh the Program for Vo[unlg ry Credit Restraint. Com~itment figures reported by the 45 life insurance companies whose combined assets represent 85 percent of all life insurance company resources show that there has been an increase in the proportion of life insurance company funds earmarked for the financin g of defense and defense-supporting activities_ For example, 46 percent of the $4,000,000,000 of commitments outstanding at the end of October were for these purposes, as compared with 37 percent on April 30_ New commibnents to finance defense and defense-supporting activities constituted 46 percent of total new commitments made in September, but this proportion rose to 48 percent in October. Newly earmarked funds for railroads and public utilities declined from September to October, whereas those for "business and industrial concerns"-principally manufacturing companies- rose sharply, both in absolute amount and in relation to total new commitments of all types_ Outstandin g commibnents of tbe reporting insurance companies declined approximalely $750,000,000 between the end of April and the end of August, with the funds allocated for residential real estate mortgage financing accounting for 56 percent of the total and other nondefense financing commitments, for 32 percent. Outstanding commitments rose in both September and October, but the increase in the former month reflects the inclusion of commitments which formerly were not reported_ Financing of plant and equipment expansion accounts for the greater part of the proposed uses of funds by borrowers in nondefense industries, and the same is probahly true in the case of defense and defensesupporting industries_ The reporting insurance companies estimate that $2,500,000,000 of the $4,000,000,000 in commitments outstanding on October 31 would be taken down within 6 months_ Half of the funds allocated to businesses other than railroads and public utilities are expected to be utilized after April 1952, while the bulk of commibnents to most other borrowers is MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 12 expected to be taken down during the fourth quarter of 1951 and the first quarter of 1952. Debits to dcposit accounts reported by banks in 24 cities of the District were only slightly higher in November than in October, with most cities showing decreases. Reflecting the high level of business activity, debits in November were 17 percent above the year·earlier total. The larger year-to-year increases in Novcmber were shown by banks in Amarillo and Port Arthur, Texas, while Abilene, Texas, was the only city reporting a decrease. The annual rate of turnover of deposits, or the annual rate of use of deposit accounts, was 15.0 in November, as compared with 15.4 in October and 14.0 in November 1950. BANK DEBITS, END-OF·MONTH DEPOSITS, AND ANNUAL RATE OF TURNOVER OF DEPOSITS CONDITION Of THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS (In thousands of dollars) December 15, December IS, November 15, 1951 1950 1951 Item Total gold certificate reser"es ••••.••....• Discounts for member bonks • .• ..•..•.•.. Industrial advances .••••••.••.•..•••.•.• Foreign loans on gold •••••••.•....•.... U. S. Government securities ••.. .... .. . ... Total earning c;useh •.•..... . . •.. .. ..... Member bank reserve deposits •.......... Federal Relerv. not.s in actual circulation . . 625,576 5,000 39 $746,237 2,000 1,112,029 1,117,068 1,062,096 698,414 923,801 925,801 920,3Bl 639,504 o o o $ 598,793 o 52 37 1,118,499 1,118,588 1,003,906 682,702 Recent weekly offerings of 91-day Treasury bi1ls were sold at successively higher average rates of discount. For example, the issue dated November 23 was sold at an average rate of discount of 1.585 percent, with the rate rising to 1.725 percent for the issue dated December 20. The latter is the highest rate for this type of security since the early 1930's. (Amounts in thousands of dollars) DEBITSl DEPOSITS2 Percenfage change from November City Nov. Oct. 1951 1950 1951 85,847 25 --I 50,148 177,507 14 11 25,41 B ARIZONA Tucson •.•.•••••••••. LOUISIANA Monroe •••••••••.••• Annual rate of turnover Nov. 30, 195) Nov. 1951 ~ 10'" 11.2 11.0 1 0.4 12.7 11..4 10.6 10.3 11.5 12.1 17.0 13.9 17.5 15.1 7.3 17.8 16.3 16.1 9.5 16.8 10.2 17.9 13.2 9.2 11.0 10.7 11.6 8.9 9.6 13.9 15.2 12.2 15.2 13.9 7.-1 17.5 16.4 14.6 8.3 , 5.0 •. 8 16.7 10.6 9.7 10.B 10.0 11.2 9.7 9.0 12.8 17.9 14.2 17.0 15.2 B.8 1 B.O 15.6 16.7 10.1 16.S r 12.0 15.7 12.0 10.2 11.8 11.9 12.1 10.3 10.3 15.0 U.O IS." r -I 1 12.4 11.3 15 -1 29,506 54,333 157,075 134,961 136,881 127,200 13,883 1,510,125 188,518 501,79.4 78,623 1,562,749 19,171 147,543 47,825 42,199 352,979 21,266 51,002 68,423 83,381 -6 2B 16 16 16 4 18 4 25 16 19 7 20 32 _-I 54,736 110,9B5 115,923 94,564 101,13B 22,593 1,036,792 140,B02 375,57B 100,444 1,130,935 23,431 104,OBB 44,585 55,010 387,567 23,960 52,847 93,631 103,75-1 Totol-24 cities ••....•• $5,638,851 17 $4,544,161 Roswell •••.••••••••• TEXAS Abilene •••.•••...... Amarillo •••••••. .. •• Austin ••••• . •••••.•• Beaumont •••••••.••• Corpus Christi •••••••• Corsicana ....•....•. Oollos ••••••••.••••• EI Poso ••..........• Fort Worth ••.•. ...•• Galveston •. . ..... .. • Houston ............ . Laredo .••..••..•.•• Lubbock •••.••..••.• Port Arthur .•••..•••• San Angelo •••••.•.•• Son Antonio •••....•• Texarkana 2 •••••••••• Tyler ••••••.••. .. ••• Waco .•••.•••••..•• Wichita Falls ••••••.•• -I 8 12 8 -I 17 _1 1 7 -, -15 2 9 -2 -5 2 -11 23 14 -9 _5 -9 -3 -11 -7 • 9.7 49,081 192,514 Shreveport ••••.•.••• NEW MEXICO Nov. Oct. 1950 1951 1 Debits 10 deposit accounts eKcepl interbank accounts. I Demond and time deposits, including certified and officers' checks outstanding but excluding deposits to the credit of banks. I This flgure includes only one bank in Texarkana, Texas. TOlal d.bits for all bonks 11 Texarkana, Texas-Arkansas, including two banks located in Ihe Eighth District, amounted to $37,374,000 for the month of November 1951. I Indicates change of less than one-halt of 1 percent. r-Revised. NEW PAR BANK The Citizens State Bank, Earth, Texas, a newly organized, insured, nonmember bank, located in the territory served by the Head Office of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, was added to the Par List on its opening date, December 10, 1951. The new bank has a capital structure consisting of common stock, $75,000; surplus, $25,000; and other capital funds, $12,500. The officers are: W. R. S~ockard, President; E. C. Hudson, Vice President; and W. R. Stockard, Jr., Vice President. The high level of economic activity in the Southwest at the end of 1951 is indicated by the record volume of non· farm employment. In Texas the seasonal rise in employment at retail trade establishments accounted for an increase of about 24-,000 persons from October to December. The continuing expansion of defense production during the same months resulted in the addition of about 1,000 aircraft workers and about 1,500 workers in the ordnance, metals, metal products, and machinery industries. On the other hand, government controls affecting construction led to a reduction of about 2,000 workers in that industry. NONFARM EMPLOYMENT Toxas and Five Southwestern Statel L Between November 15 and December 15 the principal changes in tbe condition of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas included increases of $58,190,000 in member bank reserve deposits and $26,783,000 in gold certificate reserves. Total earning assets remained virtually unchanged, since the reduction of $6,470,000 in holdings of United States Government securities was approximately offset by the increase in discounts for member banks. On December 14 the Secretary of the Treasury announced that holders of $1,062,609,000 of the 2~ -percent Treasury bonds called for redemption on December 15 had accepted the new refunding issue, an 111h-month 1% -percent certificate of indebtedness. Cash redemptions of the called bonds amounted to $55,442,000, or about 5 percent. (Estimated numbers in thousands of penons' Area and type of nonfarm employment December 1951 December 1950 fiVE SOUTHWESTERN STATES•• • Manufaduring •••••• . •.•••• Other •••••..•••••..••••.• TEXAS •.••••.•••••••••.•••.• Manufacturing .•••••. . .• .. • Other •••••••. ••• • •••••••• 4,'230 762 3,468 2,600 -167 2,133 4,096 704 3,392 2,496 426 2,070 Increase Number Percent 134 5B 76 10-1 3 8 2 -II 63 • 10 3 I Arizona, louisiana, New Mexico, Oldahama, and Texas. SOURCE, United States Bureau of Labor Statistics. State employment agencies. The gradual tightening of the labor market is indicated by the decline of unemployment in 17 major labor market areas of Texas to about 2.5 percent of the nonfarm labor force, as compared with 3.2 percent a year earlier. So far MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW during the defense program, continued migration to industrial cities has nearly matched the rise in labor requirements of such cities. However, certain technical and skilled worker groups have been insufficient in number for expanding defense industries, and many domestic workers have been atlracted increasingly to better types of employment. Despite Ih e tighter labor situation, industrial relations improved in 1951, with the number of Texas workers involved in labor disputes falling to an average of 1,526 during the first 10 months of the year, compared with 5,202 during the same period in 1950. HOURS AND EARNINGS IN MANUFACTURING Texas 13 residual fuel oil-exceeded year-earlier levels, with the com· bined total amounting to 283,000,000 barrels, equivalent to 40 days' requirements. Total stocks of crude oil and these four products amounted to 542,000,000 barrels, which is 14,000,000 barrels below the November 3 record but 37,000,000 more than a year earlier_ This level of stocks appears ample despite the normal winter increase in consumption. During the colder months stocks are drawn down, as consumption almost inevitably exceeds the maximum feasible production and refining capacity of the industry. In addition to meeting these normal demands, over-all stocks appear adequate to take care of any probable increase in military requirements short of major war. Chonge October 1951 October 1950 Amount $63.90 $1.50 42.6 $59.49 $1.39 42.8 $4.41 $0.11 - .2 Percent SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR All OILS, UNITED STATES, 1951-52 Average weekly earnings •..•.• Average hourly earning s •.. . ... Averoge weekJy houri •...•...• 7.4 7.9 1952 The petroleum industry at the year-end was faced with some major factors of uncertainty with regard to (1) the demand for burning oils, which is increasing seasonally and requires constant vigilance as to transportation and storage due to the vagaries of the weather; (2) military requirements, which are being met increasingly from southwestern sources; and (3) the international oil situation, including the rapid recovery in American imports during recent months, following the sharp reduction after the Iranian cris is. The preparations of the petroleum industry to copc with developments in these areas are indicated, in part, by its current and prospective positions with respect to pro· duction, international petroleum movements, over-all de· mand, and stocks. Crude oil stocks on December 8 amounted to a near-record 259,000,000 barrels, equal to 37 days' requirements at the ]951 average rate. Stocks of each of the four major refined products-gasoline, kerosene, gas and distillate fuel oil, and STOCKS OF CRUDE OIL AND FOUR MAJOR REFINED PRODUCTS UNITED STATES •• " '0 0 MILLIOHS 0' IlAIIRE LS L I ONS OF I!IARRELS I 60 0 0 _- __ -1.---TO TA L ,.. --", 1 .. ,,---;.00'-...... --.,"-,,- ' ...... ,,"-" 4' 0 ...... '0 •00 I •.0 "J • ,00 •'0 00 _-, • •'0 •.0 • 40 0 ,. . •0 • 0 REFINED PRODUCTS_ ~. "7'...:7""................. zo 0- ....... .. .,..j ' 00 .?' Z00 CRUDE OIL I "0 10 0 '0 I 00 ,o 0 0 0 1949 19S0 * G..l'lh... k"o"n.,gQl and dl,l llIol. ful oH.on4 r.. 600I'tC[S American 'Ilrol .~m Inllllule. U. S Buruu of Mi n,,:. 19S1 ld~DI fUll DII. 19SZ 1951 Chclnge SUPPLY [New) •• •••• ••• • ••••••••••••••••••••• 7,762 SOURCE.: Texos Employment Commission. United States 8ureou of labor SlotisliC3. ."0 (Amoonh eslimated In thousand. of barrels p.r day) -.5 7.574 6;104 6,149 188 161 141 20 27 Production.... .•• . • .• . . . ••• . . • • .• . •••• . •••• 6,865 Crude petroleum ••••.••••••••...• , ••.•.•• 6,290 Noturol gasoline and relaled products.. . . . • . • 575 Imports . • • . . • • . . . • . . . . . . . . . . . . .• . ••• • . . . • • 897 Crudo petroleum ...•• • ,..... .. .. . . . . ..... 520 Refined produch., .•...........•. , . • . • • . . • 377 CHANGE IN STOCKS .............. ........... Crude petroleum . . • ••• . • . . . . • • . . . . • • . . . ••• • ReRned products.... . . . . . • . . • . • . . . . • . . • . . . .• DEMAND!, ..... . • ...• •••••...•.. ....•. • ..• .• Domeitte, total .•..••..••••.•..•...•....•..• Export. total.... .... ............... .... . ... Crude petroleum ..••.........••..••.....•.• Domestic reftnery runl. • • • • • . • • • • • • • • • ••• •• Export.................................. ReRned produc;h •••• . ... . •...•.•.•.. • •.••••• Gasoline. . • . • . . . • . . . . . • . . . . • . . • . • . . . . . .• Kerosene. •• • . . • • • • • . • • • . • • • • . • • • • • • • • • • • Distillate fuel oil ....... .. ........ .. ...... , Residual fuel oil •..... ....... .. .•.....•. • , S5S 870 519 351 I 26 -13 0 - T3 129 19 110 7,445 7,039 406 6,598 6,522 76 7,369 3,100 351 1,283 1,623 1,012 7,039 330 330 415 -85 142 158 -16 346 202 17 93 -21 55 415 -69 2.5 2.4 2.3 3.6 3.1 0.2 7.4 -1.42 -19 -123 7,775 Percent chonge 7 ... .54 321 6,7"0 6.680 60 7,71 S 3,302 368 1,376 1,602 Olher. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •• 1,067 Domestic •• . •.....•. . . ......•. • .. •... ••.. 7 •.45,( ~port.................................. 261 4.4 5.9 -20.9 2.2 2.4 -21.1 47 6.5 U 7.2 -1.3 5.4 5.9 -20.9 1 Includes domestic and export demand for reftned products and export demand for crude petroleum. SOURCEI Petroleum Adminhtralion for Cefeme. Currently, the petroleum industry is operating its refineries at a record rate, due to the seasonal excess of demand over new supply, while crude oil output is being cut back moderately to keep over·all stocks in line with probable yearrOllnd needs. Runs to refinery stills in the Nation averaged 6,648,000 barrels per day in November, up 165,000 barrels daily from October and 567,000 barrels daily from a year earlier. The production of natural gasoline and related products was also at or close to record levels in November. In this District, runs to refinery stills decreased 2,000 barrels per day in November but were 170,000 barrels daily above the rate in November 1950. Crude oil production in the District in Novemher averaged 3,107,000 barrels per day, or 61,000 barrels daily less than the October record but 276,000 barrels daily above a year earlier. The decrease from the previous month reflects cutbacks in production allow ables, which declined still further in December and January. Production in the Nation continues to follow the trend in this District. Imports of petroleumprin cipally crude oil and residual fuel oil- have shown a substantial recovery since last summer and in November were only moderately below imports in that month of 1950_ MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 14 RAILROAD COMMISSION OF TE XAS VALUE ADDED BY MA NUFACTURE,1 945-51 FIVE SOUTHWESTERN STATES OIL AN D GAS DISTRICTS WILL IONS Of' DOLLARS 5,000 MILLIONS Of' OOLL""S 5,000 •.OOOi---+---+- --f-- - t----lV-/ L<- 4.000 C -I TL FIVE i7 5.000f---+---c!....-~:::t=~",..-!_L--+---I3 .000 / 2'000I---+/-/---t---+---h~.~.:~~?""··· ·· · ·····'/I..·· ........I · . T ...... . I ooof,--==-:+.~· SOUTH CENTRAL NIOOL.£ GULl'" LOWrR GULF o NORTHEAST lL HOfIf'H COITRAL 'te. _0 1 ' _° LOU'S'ANA WEST CENTRAL 1945 WEST II. HORTH 10. PANHAHDLE 194$ AR I,ZONA,NEW 1941 (Ba rrels) Total Area production production Increase or decrea se in doily average production from Dailyavg. ElEVENTH DISTRICT Texas R. R. Com. Districts 1 South Cenlrol. . . . . . . . . . 1,006,550 2 Middle Gulf........... 5,100,900 3 Upper Culf •••••.•.•..• 14745,750 4 Lower Gulf.... . ....... 7,808,800 3 East Cenlral. • . . • . . • . . • 1,632,300 6 Northeost...... . ... . .. 12,063,450 East Texas. • .•.. .•• • 8,313,000 Other fJelds. • ••..••• 3,750,450 7b North Central. . . . . . . . . . 2,503,800 7c West Central. ......... 3,603,000 8 West .•.......... ... .. 29,336,100 9 North................. 4,749,000 , 0 Panhondle......... .. .. 2,497,800 Total Tuas •. . .•••.. 85,047,450 New Mellico............... 4,425,600 North louisiana. ............ 3,740,250 Total Eleyenth District ...... 93,213,300 OUTSIDE ELEVENTH DISTRICT... 93,838,332 UNITED STATES . •••••• . . . ••.• 187,051,632 33,552 170,030 491 ,525 260,2 93 54,410 402,115 277,100 125,0 15 83,460 120,100 977,870 158,300 83,260 2,834,915 147,520 124,675 3,107,110 3,127,944 6,235,OS4 No'll. 1950 2,317 18,917 28,491 27,883 11 ,412 9,650 -13,170 22, 820 11,047 40,850 105,305 8,308 -6,740 257,440 18,367 -510 275,297 77,134 352,431 Ocl.195 1 -1,3 16 -4,949 - 22,744 - 10,634 -903 8,262 6,029 2,233 - 3,153 2,506 - 27.906 -3,Q5 8 -94 2 -64,837 4,330 -6S4 -61,1 6 1 -37 ,09 3 _98,2 54 SOURCEt Estimated from American Petroleum InstiMe weekly r.port" The 1950 national survey of manufacturing, together with subsequent trends in manufacturing employm611t and prices of manufactured products, indicates Lhat value added by manufacture increased each year from 1945 through 1951 in Texas and in each of th ose years except 1949 in the other states wholly or partly in Lhis District. The 1945-51 gains amounted to about 213 percent in Texas and about 180 percent in the five district states. The years of fastest growth werc 1947 and 1950-51. Conversion from wartime to postwar production was essentially completed in 1947. At the same time, there was rapid expansion in the chemical, oil refining, and other industries, with nati onal concerns and others building many new plants in this Dist~ict. In 1950·51 the defense program induced an increased output, expansion of capacity in many existing plants, and the construction of numerous new plants to produce aluminum, chemicals, petro· leum products, and other defense items. .- ,' -' ~EXICO ond 19 48 0'''-' , . ,,' " 11,,..I, d IrOfft .""Io, ..,nr November 1951 __. I ~--=-_ .. - -- 1 ,000 50UI'I(;[5, 1'_", 1'4'_ $0, U. S. h'tou 01 III. Cl nlv" CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION _ ' .000 ~-~i----i---- l---::.:J-r· _____ ........_0'-"i°- ' - ;o - UST CENTRAL e. ..... . . ....·......r 3 , UPfER GUL F .' on~ 1949 p, lu y fKLAHOMA-1 1 50 9 0 1951 dolO . The cottonseed products industry in the Southwest at the year-end was confronted with an appreciably larger demand fo r its feed products-cake, meal, and hulls-than a year earlier but a smaller demand for cottonseed oil and linters. The increased. feed demand reflects the shortage of vegetable protein feeds resulting from the rise in the cattle population and from ti,e drought in much of Texas and Oklahoma. Further stimulus to Lhe use of cottonseed products as feed has been the relatively higher price of grains. The price of cottonseed in wagon lots in Texas was about $75 in December, compared with about $106 a year earlier. This price decline despite a strong demand for feed products resulted from the increased supply of seed from this season's larger cotton crop and the weakening of the markets for cottonseed oil and linters. The Texas cottonseed products industry registered somewhat smaller gains than the Nation durin g the [lrsL 3 months of the 1951-52 season, with cottonseed receipts at mills in the State being 46 percent higher Lhan a year earlier, while crushings were up 3 percent and cottonseed oil production up 1 percent. COTTON SEED AND COTTO N SEED PRO DUCTS TEXAS UNITED STATES August 1 to October 31 August 1 to October 31 This season conON5EED {tons} RecelYed a t mills. ••• • •••••• Crushed .••• ••••..•.. . .•..• Stocks, e nd of p eriod •••.•••• CO TTONSEED PRODUCTS Production Crude oil (Ihousand pounds) Cake and meol Itons}. ••••• Hulls [tons) . •••...• . .. . .• linters {running bares) •• • •• Stoclu, e nd of period Crude oil (Ihousand pounds) Cake Cl nd meol {tonsl, .•. •• Hulls (tons) •• • ••• •••••••• linters {running b o les} ••• •• last season This season lost season 787,684 436,287 401,275 538,D58 421 ,429 324,420 3.196. 173 1,575,0 84 1.687.370 1.942.286 1,2 53,121 973,665 132.462 210.124 98.389 144.414 131.479 197.998 99.152 127.274 483,567 728.450 346.644 504.920 389.583 562,074 289,561 407,326 20,525 18,028 8,402 33,976 14, 195 75,884 40,456 14,982 74,337 72,611 35,269 135,369 49.382 214,226 96.647 89.757 SOU RCE: United Stat .. Bur.au of Census. 15 MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW The cotton textile industry continues to feel the effecLs o[ excessive inventories in the distribution system and the relatively slow civilian demand for colLon goods, both of which [actors Lo some extent reflect the heavy consumer buying during the months after Korea_ Despite the substantial military demand, mill consumption of cotton durin g the first 3 months of the 1951-52 season was at a rate 7 percent lower than a year earlier in the Nation and 4 percent lower in Texas. The value of construction contracts awarded in the District declined more than seasonally during November, with the LoLal amounting to $63,000,000, or 13 percent less than in October and 29 percent less than a year earlier_ Residential awards were down 11 percent from the previous month and nonresidential down 16 percent, with decreases from a year earlier of 27 percent and 32 percent, respectively_ The decrease in a wards apparently was rather general throughout the District, reflecting shortages of some critical materials and tight controls over nonessential construction_ The percentage declines in thi s District during November were appreciably greater than those in the Nation, although during the first] 1 months of 1951 residential awards were up 6 percent in the District in contrast with a decline of 6 percent in the Nation. In nonresidential awards, there was less difference, the District gaining 24 percent and the Nation 22 percent over the first 11 months of 1950. 1950 ELEVENTH DISTRICT .. R.,idential . . All other •..... UNITED ST AlESI .... Residential ..• .. .. All other •... .... . $ 63.<156 32,882 30,574 931,768 443,884 487,8 84 $ 89,931 44,957 44,974 $ 73,210 36,945 36,265 Number Valuation LOU1S1ANA 241 $ 693,262 Shreve port .... TEXAS 86 810,070 Abilene .... . .. 317 1,409,32 8 Amarillo ..... . 158 1,639,5 58 Austin . ... 222 354,587 Beaumont .. ... 225 554,159 Corpus Christi .. 5,762,968 Dalla s ....... . 1,5 06 207 658,273 EI Paso .. . ... . 606 1,727,776 Fort Worth . ... Galveston .... . 121 117,041 8,072,262 Houston ..... . . 808 1,075,884 lubbock . .... . 187 502,251 Port Arthur . ... 148 1,944,751 So n Antonio ... 1,028 997,250 Waco ...... . . 254 313,150 Wichita Falls .. 43 TotaL .. . ...... . 6,157 $26,632,570 Nov. 1950 0,,_ Number Valuation 1951 - 37 -44 3,575 15,176,932 -46 -22 1,092 3,701 2,463 2,768 6,746,756 19,874,809 27,663,431 -50 -7 -24 -25 -32 -21 -41 -3 -1 -5 29 8 -58 -45 -66 -33 -66 -48 -32 149 -58 52 -25 11 B -6 12 -40 -34 -14 18,954 6,956,138 17,405,727 92,689,989 14,158,990 41,118,803 7,261,424 52 10,292 122,906,675 17,336,280 3,419 -15 2,760 -29 7,643 -49 1,318 -68 2,9-49 -20 1,82-4 -51 13,465 -32 2,356 -43 1,075 -40 -1579,654 -22 5,667,693 42,305,968 1-4,310,824 6,163,130 -27 6 -16 -23 27 $457,743,569 -22 1950 $1.071,819 508,496 563,323 ci ties, where future economic growth is expected to support the real estate market, but are still difficult to obtain in many smaller towns. 697,622 14,516,792 November 1,087,602 1,05' ,4 19 496,682 590,920 .496,247 5,877,284 13.333.163 6,262,445 555,172 8,639,508 7,070,71 B I 37 stoles east of the Rocky Mountains. p-Pre!imina ry. SOURCE: f. W. Dodge Corporation. November 1951 City Percentage change in valuation from 11 months 1950 $1,235,773 538,1 S1 January - October 1951p November 1951p 11 monlhs 1951 Percentage change in va luation from 1951p {In thousands of dollars} November BUILDING PERM1TS Present indications point to continued tight controls for the next several months over critical materials used in construction, However, many builders are still able to draw upon accumulated stocks or can find suhstitutes, Supplies of lumber, brick, cement, and most other nonmetallic materials are adequate, as well as the supply of construction labor, Mortgage funds gradually are becoming more plentiful in the large VAtUE OF CONSTRUCTION CONTRACTS AWARDED Area .and type Demand for housing in defense areas and for military purposes continues strong, partly offsetting the decline in residential building in many other areas.