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Federal Reserve Banl{. of Dallas This summary of agricultural and commercial conditions In the Eleventh Federal Reserve Dlstrlct Is Issued In the beUef that a concise review of trade will be of Interest to our member banits, business men of the district and friends of the Federal Reserve System. The Information given is obtained by the Federal Reserve Agent from various sources throughout the district, and in our opinion lhe same is reliable. Those desiring the letter furnished them regularly will receive It without charge upon application. DALLAS, DECEMBER, 1918 The successful termination of the war has created optimism everywhere, as evidenced by the various peace demonstrations, parades and similar gatherings throughout this District. At the same time the sudden end to hostilities brings us face to face with a period of readj ustment and industrial changes, and presents economic problems which, at the moment, appear almost as difficult of solution as when the District changed from a peace to a war hasis early in 1917. We do not doubt that as these readjustments take place conditions will continue generally satisfactory, but any definite prediction Or statement for the distant future wou ld be purely guess-work. The influenza situation has greatly improved and restrictions as to crowds and amusement places have been raised. More seasonable Fall weather and fine rains over practically every section of the District have greatly improved the general business outlook since our November letter, and in the larger cities especially trade is active. Retail distribution, after a very dull period in OctoGer, is again normal. The movement of merchandise has been accelerated by the campaign for early Christmas shopping and the necessity for the prompt buying of presents for the boys in the Expeditionary Force. Now that restrictions on Christmas shopping have be-en lifted, the hOliday season should be one of unusual activity. The operations of manufacturers are restricted only by the labor situation, and delivery of raw material. Collections are slow. Outside of the seasonal preparation for next year's crops and the marketing of AGRICULTURE commodities produced in 1917, farming conditions are practically unchanged during the past month. Very heavy and general rains, in many localities averaging from two to six inches, have fallen within the past thirty days, which with lighter rains in the early Fall, have insured exc·ellent range conditions in the west and southwest sections and give promise of a good wheat crop in the northwest and "Panhandle" sections, where an increased acreage, conservatively estimated at 20 per cent., has been sown. The crop is looking especially fine at this writing; in fact, the general rains have created a much better feeling among fanners and stockmen . We are hopeful that these conditions may continue. The Fall crop of sweet potatoes, peanuts al~d similar commodities is now being marketed at good prices and the returns from the crops are being felt in trade channels. Over 50 cars of sweet potatoes have already been shipped from Jasper County alone, and 20,000 bushels are in storage at the curing plants at Jasper and Kirbyville. The Government crop report for October estimates the Texas sweet potato yield at 4,900,000 bushels, and the production of peanuts at 15,900,000 bushels. The pinto bean crop of New Mexico is disappointing, both in yield and quality, and the production is less than two-thirds of that expected. Shipmellts of ribbon cane syrup are now being made from east Texas, and while the crop is short on account of drouth conditions, the grade is exc-el1ent and high prices are being received. Final tabulation of subscriptions to the Fourth Liberty Loan show a total of approxiBANKING mately $145,000,000, or an over-subscription of 15 per cent. Considering the unfavorabl·e conditions obtaining in the West on account of the drouth, we think the showing is an excellent one. It is only added evidence This publication was digitized and made available by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' Historical Library (FedHistory@dal.frb.org) of the unselfish support and patriotism of th e banking institutions and peopl'e of the Eleventh District. Too much praise cannot be g iven the banks fo r their efforts in making the loa n a succ'ess. The financial situation is quite as active as thirty days ago. The most ser ious problem w hich banks in this Di strict now face is that of moving the cotton crop. There is littl e prospect of immediate relief in this r egard. The banks in the interior have made h eavy advances on cotton purchased on a high market, and on accou nt of the present unsettll'! d conditions, and lack of transportation facilities, there are very few sales and the general disposition is to hold for hi gher prices, to avoid heavy loss. With such a large part of their assets tied up in cotton t he banks find it extremely difficult to maintain their r es'erves. T h ere continues an unprecedented demand for funds . Interest rates are firm to steady, at 6 to 8 per cent for customer s' pap'er. The rediscount facilities of this bank are bei ng freely sought, and while our total loans a re slig htly decreased over a month ago, attrib utab le mainly to the liquidation of member banks' promissory notes secured by Tr-easury certificates, the amount of p ap er rediscounted is unchanged. Th e report of condition rendered on the call of November 1st sh ow slightly increased deposits a nd decreased loans. At the same time, the seasonal liquidating period has not yet been developed on account of the light movement of cotton . In a circular issued under date of November 29th, the attention of memb er banks is di1"ected to the necessity of conserving their resources and carefully scrutinizing n ew cr ed its. This seems especially imp ortant in the reconstruction days to come. Clearings at the principal cities of the district in October show an increase of 2.3 per cent. over the' same month of 1917. For the first ten months of thc present year, as compared w ith 1917, an increase of 21.3 per c'cnt. is shown. The figures in detail follow: OCTOBER Inc. 1917 Aust.in .............. :'...............$ 13,380,064 Beaumont ........................ 5,644,638 Dall as ................................ 116,000,000 EI Paso ............................ 17,639,674 Ft . Worth ........................ 78,378,536 Galves ton ........................ 32,895,920 Honston .......................... 84,977,974 Shreveport ...................... 16,884,027 1918 $ 11,003,491 6,383,789 130,964,281 22,257,256 69,953,5 16 34,081,858 83,745,529 15,579,'071 Total ............................$365,800,833 $373,968,791 Incrcase-$8,167,958-2.3% TEN MONTHS 1917 Austin ..............................$143,427,535 Beaumont ........................ 47,638,429 Dallas ..............._........ _... 595,469,001 El Paso ............................ 171,8""2,335 Ft. Worlh ........................ 516,060,108 Ga lveston ........................ 219,891,147 Houston .......................... 548,368,400 Shreveport ...................... 80,907,115 1918 $161,244,925 56,194,122 858,201,992 185,005,513 576,620,488 226,167,187 650,964,506 103,778,222 'fotal ........................$2, 323,604,'070 $2,818,176,955 Increase-$494,5n,885-21.3% or Dec. - 17.8 13.1 12.9 26.2 -10.7 3.6 - 1.4 7.7 Inc. or Dec. 11.8 17.9 44.1 8.2 11.7 2.8 18.7 28,3 Building p ermits iss ued at the principal cities of th e di strict in October show a decrease BUILDING of 164 in number, and $314,528 in valuation-or 38.2%-over the same month of 1917. As compared with October, 1916, the decrease is over 50 per cent. Detailed figures follow: 1917 No . Valuation. $ 22,912 Austin ................... ........ 11 105,855 Beaumon t .................... 71 68,120 Dallas ............................ 40 92,372 E I Paso ....................... 124 11,629 Galveston .................... 341 162, 100 Ho uston ........................ 228 239,035 San Anton io ................ 224 121.323 Shreveport .................... 59 1918 No . Valuation. 4 $ 28,200 53 48,231 23 14,550 74 16,396 373 21,071 136 40,412 227 329,938 44 10,020 934 $508,818 Tolal ........................ 1,098 $823,346 Decrease in llumb er-164 Decrease in valuation-$314,528-38.2% \Vith the end of the war it is anticipated that the building industry wi ll soon be very active. A much better feeling prevails among the trade, both with m anufacturer s of materials and constructiun firms, and it is expected that operations will be rapidly restored to normal now that the Government regulations have been removed. Projects which h ave been h eld up during the war will to a large ext ent be I'eleased. Space is in g reat demand both fo r dwelling and commercial pu rposes, and the trade reports that there is ev idence of an imm ediate renewal of operations limited in extent on ly by t he ready supply of material and labor. Pending the resumption of various manufacturing plants to peace time industry, t he reserve stock of building materials will prove no more than adequate for the increasing demand. Man ufact ur ers of lumber hesitate to predict the developments of the immediate future. The pl"esent effect of the end of the war is that a large number of Government orders are being cance1led or h eld up, and as one manufacturer reports, "the mills are entirely up in the air as to what the r esult w ill be." T he stock of lumber on h and at the mi lls is low and badly b roken, and wi th the present labor shortage and oth er contributing factors, there is no immediate prospect for early replenishment. The cancellation of building restrictions w ill have the effect of creating a sufficient demand to use such lumber as may be available for several months to come, or until such time as our allies and the European coun tries come into the market for the enormous amount of lumber they will unquestionably need in the r econstruction period to follow . Exports from the Galveston di strict in Septemberthe latest figures available-aggreEXPORTS gated $26,410,000; an increase of 40.7 per cent. over the same month of 1917 w h en the value of such exports was $18,765,000. The October record of fai lures in the Eleventh District shows a decrease of 22 in numFAILURES ber, but a slight increase in amount of liabilities, over the same month of 1917. The figures are: No. 52 1917 1918 Liabilities No. Liabilities $392,822 30 $410,202 Decrease in number-22 Increase in Liabilities-$17,380 It is too early to make any statement as to the effect the end of the war will have on labor LABOR conditions. It seems to be the general impression, however, that an immediate improvement will be the result, as with the rapid demobilization of troops and their return to civil life, the scarcity of all classes of labor should be greatly reduced. Owing to the fact that many of OUr large enterprises will have to be converted fr0111 a war to peace basis, the labor turn-over will be necessarily large and no doubt will result in considerable economic loss. We believe, however, this will be only temporary and confiel·ently expect a rapiel recovery to normal labor conditions. The area of this district devoted to the cattle 111elustry is so extensive that reLIVE STOCK ports in hand as to live stock conditions at present ape quite at variance. We believe, on the whole, that the cattle industry is much improved over thirty days ago, as the heavy rai ns recently have helped grazing. In the 1\ marillo section our corresponelent reports that cattle arc in good condition and will go into Winter in fine flesh; also that there is a reasonable amount of grass to tide them over. Reports from other sections in t he Panhandle are that cattle are being moved to other ranges or shipped to market with very unsati sfactory results. Our correspondent at Eagle Pass advises that cattle conditions are better than for the past eighteen months; that the rain has filled water tanks and there will be sufficient Water to carry the stock through the Winter. In the Beeville section there is an increased number of inquiries for steers of all ages and a fair demand for cows and stockers, at prices ranging fr0111 $65.00 to $85.00, plus freight . In. Arizona range conditions are bad, and cattle are bClng moved to other territory for feed. Post office receipts at the principal cities of t he district show an increase of POST OFFICE 24.3 per cent. in October over RECEIPTS the same month of 1917. Detailed figures follow : 1917 Austin ................................................$ 18,968 Beaul110nt ........................................ 12,()03 Dallas .......................................... :..... 147,772 1':1 Paso ............................................ 29,333 Port Worth ...................................... 55,231 Galveston .......................................... 14,630 Houston ................ ................... ....... 70,351 San Antonio .................................... 75,609 Sit rcvcport ........................................ 27,329 v\Taco ................... _............................. 31,619 Total ............................................$482,845 Increasc-$117,145-24.3% 1918 $ 25,192 15,354 179,305 32,688 70,001 18,161 92,J95 100,303 28,927 37,464 $599,990 'Wholesal ers of dry goods report very Ii ttle buying among the country trade at the WHOLESALE present time on account of the TRADE long period of warm weather and the dul l business occasioned by the inAuenza epidemic. vVholesalers and jobbers also advise that the sudden termination of the war, and the many adjustments in their line which wi ll be necessary as the result, has caused a condition of unsettlement, and they are "marking time" pending developments. They have large stocks of high priced goods on hand, and until marl et conditions hecome more settled and some definite basis can be formed as to future prices, buying wi ll necessarily be curtailed and restricted to actual requirements. Some have alr-eady cancelled orders for future delivery. The buying' season for Spring and Fall of 1919 will soon be here, but on account of the conditions mentioned above there is littl e activity. Large mail order houses report a temporary lull in husiness and attribute it to the anticipation of greatly reduced prices of merchandise. Their volume of holiday trade, however, has been unusually heavy, and this class of merchandise has been in good demand. The wholesale grocery trade has been very acti\'e in the past few weeks. This activity, however, is attributable mainly to delivery of stocks purchased in the Spring and Summer. 'there is a very strong t ndency 011 the part of the retailer to withhold purchases and to buy in limited quantities, in anticipation of a drop in prices with the end of the war. \ Vho Jesalcrs are encouraging this practice, in an effort to prevent hoarding, but report that there is probably littl e basis for exp cting any material decline in grocery prices in the near future, as with the extraordinary demand for food, which it now develops will be greatly increased for the devastated European countries, it is not thought there will be any substantial decline, but rath·er an increase. Collections in the trade are reported as unusually good . STATEMENT OF CONDITION OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS At the Close of Business NOVEMBER 29, 1918. RESOURCES Gold Gold Gold Gold Gold coin and certificates i~ vault ............................................... ..................................................................................... . $ 5,666,512.50 6,514, 153.66 settlement fund ............................................................................................................................................................. . 2,153,150.00 redemption fund .......................................................................................................................................................... . 204,010.61 held with foreign agencies ......................................................................................................................................... . with Agent for retirement of F. R. Notes ......................................................................................................... .. 22,500,095.00 Total ............... _................................................................................................................................................................. $37,037,921.77 1,299,981.25 Legal tender notes, silver, etc ....................... ··.. ······· .. ····· .. ··· .... ·..· ..................................................................................... . ......... ---_ -.-.......__ ........................................................... _- ................................. __ ..-_ .....-.--.-.......................... ..... Total ........ _ 5% redemption fund-F. R. Bank N otes .................. ···· .... ·· .. ·· .......................................................................................... Bills discounted-m embel's ........._................................................................................................................................... . Bills bought in open ma rket .......................................... ·· .. ·····.. ·· ..................................................................................... . $38,337,903.02 226,900.00 48,972,698. 15 4,025:000.00 Total Bills on Hand ....................................................................................................................................................... $52,997,698.15 Investments-U. S. Bonds ......................................... ······.. ·····.. ·· ... ............................................. :....................................... . 4,000,050.00 725,000.00 One year Treasury Notes .................................... .. ··· ...... ·· ........ ·· .... ·· .... ·· ................................................. . 1,675 ,000.00 Special Cert. of Ind. to secure F . R. Bank Notes ....................... ·· ...... ··· .... ··· .... ···· .. ·.. ··· .. ····· .. ·................................. .. Total earning assets .................................................................................................................................................... $59,397,748.15 4,360,669.41 7,927,465. 12 3,407,970.06 Federal Reserve Banks-Transfers Bought-(net) ................................................................................................. .. Ch ecks and drafts in process of collection ...................................... ···· .. ·.... ·.... ··· .. ··· ....................................................... . All other resources ........................·.. ············ .. ·········· ............................................................................................................. . Total Resources ........................................................................ .................................................................................... $113,658,655.76 LIABILITIES Capital paid in ........................ ·····.. ··· .... ·· .... ··.. ············· ...................... ..................................................................................... . $ 3,141,450.00 3,989,502.72 Government deposits ........................................................................................................................................................... . Du e to member banks' reserve account ..................... ···· .. ····· .. ······.. ······ ........................................................................... . 31,705,480.17 8,901,735.19 Deferred credits, account checks and drafts in process of collection .............................................................. .. 59,104,685.00 Federal Reserve Notes in circulation ........................... ·······.. ·· ...................................................................................... . 987,544.46 Due to F. R. Banks (n et) ............................ ·.. ·· .. · ........................... .................................................................................... .. 2,586,150.00 F. R. Bank N ote Cil'culalion ....................... ·· .. ·· .. ·· .. ·····.... ·.... ·.... ···· .......................................................................... ......... . 1,238,000.00 Federal Reserve B~mk No tes (secured by U. S. Bond s) ................................ ·.. ·.. ·.. ·.. ·· .... ·.. ·.. ·.. ··· .... ·.. ··.................. . 2,004,108.22 All other liabilities ....................... ·.. ······ .. ···· .. ·.. ·...... ···· ........................................................................................................... Total Liabilities ....................................................................... ................................................................................... $113,658,655.76 OFFICERS W. F. RAMSEY, Federal Reserve Agent. J. W. HOOPES, Deputy Governor. CHARLES C. HALL, Ass't Federal Reserve Agent. R. L. VAN ZANDT, Governor. LYNN P. TALLEY, Cashier. R. R. GILBERT, Assistant Cashier. R. BUCKNER COLEMAN, Assistant Cashier. PAUL G. TAYLOR, Assistant Cashier. FRED HARRIS, Assistant Cashier.