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Federal Reserve Bank of Dal1as

Business Review
April 1975
Crude Supplies-

~tter pse of Existing Reserves

,I
I

ay YIeld More Than Exploration

liighIights of the New Budget

This publication was digitized and made available by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' Historical Library (FedHistory@dal.frb.org)

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~" •

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S_" __&,-•• ' _

Crude Supplies-

Better Use of Existing Reserves
May Yield More Than Exploration

With prices of all forms of energy
~t record highs and oil imports still
~S~cure, domestic oil supplies must
e lIlcreased as fast as possible.
b Other fuel sources will have to
be developed if the country is to
a ec?me self-sufficient in energy
gaIn. For some time to come howver, Primary reliance will ha~e to
e on the development of domestic
crude reserves, especially existing
reserves.
Exploration for new fields gives
SOIne promise for improving oil
i .roduction. But while exploraI~n has been boosted by higher
~flces and an increase in Governfu~nt sale of offshore leases, the
rt s~re for new reserves is clouded.
In lInply is not known how much
Do:e new oil can be found in the
ntted States.
bi~~r Inor~ certai? are the possif les for mcreasmg recoveries
i~OIn known wells. With the rise
h crude prices, recovery efforts
n~re ~lready increa·sed. And techh
O?lcal changes are vastly imprOVIng th e potential for recovery.
.

Lack of alternatives
Several
iSe fo ener.gy s?urces hold promeff r contnbutmg to the nation's
N orts to regain self-sufficiency.
Si;:e of them, however, give any
denc~f hel~ing reduce the depenSolon 011 and gas for some time.
for ar energy and nuclear fusion,
for ~:~In~le, have a huge potential
lenIn BCIn,g t~e need for petroSear but It Will take years of resign ~ efore they can become
h I
rro cant sources of energy.
stea perly harnessed, geothermal
th In and even the movement of
th eOcea ns could be used to reduce
e nation'dependence on oil and
s

BUs'
Uless Review I April 1975

More than three-fourths of nation ' s energy
comes from petroleum

~F---

OIL

COAL

---II~'

GAS AND GAS LIQUIDS
SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Mines

increase in its use waits, like the
gas. In terms of availability, howuse of newer energy sources, on
ever, they are further off than numore research.
clear fusion.
A partial answer could be the
In the meantime, the nation has
conversion of coal to oil and gas.
vast coal reserves-enough, in fact,
to meet almost all its current needs Here again, however, it could take
years to develop economical confor as much as a hundred years.
version processes. Even then, any
There are serious limitations to
lessening of dependence on petrothe use of coal, however.
leum would be paced by construcEnvironmental considerations
tion of large gasification plants
limit the use of most of the coal
that could take ten years or more
available near major consuming
to bring on stream.
areas. Conversely, the most abundant sources of low-sulfur coal are
Search for new oil •..
far removed from the main points
Any immediate hope for relief from
of consumption.
high-priced, politically insecure oil
Steam generating plants nearer
imports is pinned to prospects for
to the mines do not provide an imincreasing domestic production.
mediate alternative to existing oilBut as the most promising possiburning capacity. Line losses are
bilities for exploration are drilled,
still too high to make most such
differences of opinion on how much
plants feasible.
more oil can be found grow wider.
Thus, while coal has long been
used as a primary source of energy Most estimates reflect a concern
and is in great supply, any marked that, after producing 100 billion
1

Number of producing wells tapers off,
despite an upturn in exploration
600 THOUSAND WELLS

- - --:,;;;;.;;;;;;;:=;;;::-- - - - - - PRODUCING OIL WELLS

500 -

400 ~---~---r---~---~---r_---_.-60 THOUSAND WELLS - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

40 WELLS DRILLED

~----,_------._----_.----,_--_,r_--_r--

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

SOURCE: World Oil

barrels of crude oil and other petroleum liquids, the country simply
may not have enough oil left to
maintain current levels of output.
One Government estimate shows
that with new discoveries, at least
200 billion barrels of crude and
liquids could probably be recovered eventually-maybe as much
as 400 billion barrels. While that
is a large amount, it could take
decades to develop this potential.
Also, most estimates are considerably less.
One of the major oil companies,
for example, has estimated that
, only about 88 billion barrels can
be recovered. This industry estimate claims a 90-percent probability that the amount will fall somewhere between 50 billion and 150
billion barrels. Some estimates are
even more pessimistic.
Estimates differ because of the
uncertainties of exploration. Despite all the advances in the knowledge of geological structures, no
one really knows oil can be found
2

in a particular formation without
actually drilling it.
Whatever the extent of the gains
that can be made from exploration, however, they will be limited
for years by shortages of crews
and equipment. Then, when oil is
found, there are lags in the development of new fields.
After years of decline in drilling in the United States, the drilling industry is no longer in a position to undertake an exploratory
effort of the scope the situation
now calls for. Many rigs, in fact,
have been broken up for spare
parts over the past several years,
leaving an outlook for the industry
to be hard pressed to maintain its
current level of drilling over the
next few years.
Even with an increase in the
availability of rigs, lags in the development of new fields could be
reduced very little. Under the best
circumstances, it can take years
to find a new field and bring it into
production. It usually takes a

couple of years of planning and
preparation for a company to drill
an exploratory well and, if there is
no other production nearby, another two years for a discovery
well to be put into production.
Part of the delay comes from
the construction of pipelines and
other facilities, such as storage
tanks. Pipeline construction adds
increasingly to the lag as production is moved into more remote
areas.
One of the best examples is the
long time that has been required
to develop Alaskan oil and bring
it to market. Although discovered
as far back as 1968, reserves on the
North Slope still go untapped, as
they must for probably three years
more before a pipeline can be laid
to take the oil to the coast for shipment to the lower United States.
Offshore oil presents much the
same problems. And these problems become more difficult as wells
are moved further out into the
ocean.
... and need for big pools
Until now, most production has
been from large fields. And with
the nation's enormous appetite for
energy-oil consumption totaled
some 6 billion barrels last yearhuge discoveries are needed to halt
the decline in reserves. But there
are doubts if any large fields are
left to be found.
As new reserves become harder
to find, the search for oil becomes
more expensive. As drilling has to
go deeper and exploration is forced
further offshore and into such remote areas as Alaska, costs go up,
as do the risks.
The last major discovery in the
continental United States was seVeral years ago in Florida. And in
spite of all the surge in exploration
since, no new giants have been
found ashore.
There are signs, in fact, that the
size of discoveries may be falling.

More than 700 new-field wildcats
Were drilleu m 1973, for example.
,.
T
hat .was nearly a fourth more
th
b an m 1972. But at 365 million
f arrels of oil and liquids, the total
~ these new-field discoveries was
o 18 percent from the year before.
. t that rate, reserves were beIng pulled down far faster than
~~W res~rves were being found.
°tuctlOn of crude and liquids exce~ ed 3.1 billion barrels in 1973.
abl verall, exploration was remarksUccessful in 1973. More than
~ .fth of the 7,466 wildcat wells
o?llled that year turned up either
I or gas
T .
195~at SUccess rate-the best since
Wand the third best since
of ~d War II-brought the number
fOr Yholes to a record low of six
In teVery discovery of a new field.
to n~e P~st, the ratio of dry holes
l'n
Wdiscoveries had ranged from
,..ore than seven to nearly II.
S
SuItome of this success was the recruci:o ~oubt, of the increase in
in 197 pn~e~. Crude prices doubled
3,
$4-makirlsmg from $2 a barrel to
lllight h ng small fields that once
den! ave been abandoned sudA. Y profitable.
197: prices continued to rise in
forts'texceeding $10 a barrel, efspu 0 start exploration were
by t~ed to fever pitch, limited only
equi e availab~ty of ~rews and
the .pment. WIth the mcrease in
andIntenSI'tY of the search for oil
gas
which' add't'
I Ions to new reserves,
COuld :uctuate from year to year,
of a f e boosted by the discovery
A. ew large fields.
gian~other big discovery like the
WOuldNorth Slope field in Alaska
the ou~ake a vast difference in
Cline' ook for slowing the deand s~n domestic reserves. Alaska
Coast veral areas off the Atlantic
SUch d~ffer some possibilities for
A. Iscoveries.
. nd I
'b'l"
lng-if the poSSI I ltIes are improvbeing ~~r because more holes are
ed. But the incalcu-

Discoveries on the North Slope
will not increase supplies for years
45 BILLION BARRELS - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

PROVED RESERVES

9.6 BILLION
BARRELS
FOR
ALASKA

30 -

n...·
....lnessR

.
eVlew I April 1975

o
1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

SOURCE: American Petroleum Institute

II
I

385 million barrels of crude oil last
year-10 percent of the total.
Ordinarily, wells are abandoned
when the costs of producing them
Better use of old oil •.•
reach the returns from sale of the
Although exploration improves the oil. And because of the high cost
of redrilling or reworking them,
potential for building reservesonce abandoned, they have not
particularly in Alaska and the offbeen reopened.
shore Atlantic-much of the naBut with oil selling at over $10
tion's oil will still come from areas
a barrel, producers can afford to
that have always been major prokeep strippers in operation longer,
ducers. And with improved but
recovering more oil. All told, the
far more expensive methods than
increase in domestic crude prices
were used in the past, billions of
last year may have added another
barrels of additional oil can be
2.2 billion barrels to the eventual
drawn from known reservoirs.
recovery of oil from stripper wells.
Higher prices-as much as technoPotentially more important than
logical improvements-make addistripper wells, however, are imtional withdrawals possible.
provements in recovery operations.
One effect of higher prices has
Only about a third of the oil in
been to extend the life of stripper
most reservoirs can be withdrawn
wells-wells with production that
through ordinary production methdoes not averl~ge more than 10
ods-pumping or depending on
barrels a day. While that may not
natural forces to drive the oil to
seem like significant production,
the well. Much more oil can be
seven out of ten of the nation's
taken out by changing conditions
500,000 producing wells are stripin the reservoir.
pers. Together, they produced over
lable uncertainties of exploration
preclude any real dependence on
that possibility.

Drive can come from gas or water. Where gas provides the drive,
oil is forced to the area of low pressure created by a well penetrating
the reservoir. Whether the gas sets
as a cap over the oil or mixes with
it, the effect is much the same.
Pressure continues to cause oil to
flow to the well. For that reason,
care has to be taken to keep pressure in the reservoir from falling.
Until these mechanics were understood, gas was withdrawn with
the oil, often being allowed to escape. The result was a loss of pressure that reduced the amount of
oil eventually driven into the well.
Under production methods today, however, pressure is maintained in the reservoir, even if gas
from other sources has to be injected into the well. Gas injection
is one form of secondary recovery.
Where water provides the drive,
oil is trapped between the underlying water and the overlying
strata, forming a pool. As oil is removed from the pool, water forces
more oil into the well.
Because water moves through
strata easier than oil, care has to
be taken to pace production so
that the water will not bypass the
oil, isolating pockets of oil that
can never be recovered.
One production technique,
therefore, is to inject additional
water into the reservoir so that as
much oil as possible can be flushed
out. This is the other common form
of secondary recovery.
Natural pressures-most often
gas and water in combination-are
usually strong in new fields. Blowouts, in fact, were once fairly common, particularly with discoveries
of new fields. And in the early life
of a field, oil may flow up the well
under its own pressure.
Later, however, when the pressure is reduced, wells have to be
pumped. Eventually, even with the
best conservation practices, pumping also becomes inadequate. But
4

Enhanced recovery accounted for nearly 40 percent
of the crude pil produced in 1973
10 MILLION BARRELS A DAY-

__ 1_'TOTAL

IN SITU COMBUSTION
STEAM FLOODING AND INJECTiON

CHEMICAL INJECTION AND C02

GAS INJECTION AND
PRESSURE MAINTENANCE

4':"WATER FLOODING AND
PRESSURE MAINTENANCE

1 - - - - 1':',"

o---L------::....&..--SOURCE: Interstate Oil Compact Commission

as the flow tapers off, recovery
operations can be started to stave
off decline.
Already, 40 percent of the nation's production comes from wells
stimulated by secondary recovery.
And this proportion will increase
as fields get older. With prices up,
producers are watching the flow at
wells much closer, starting secondary operations earlier than just a
year or so ago.
... with tertiary recovery ...
Because this country has been a
major oil producer so long, there
are many fields that could be reworked even further, vastly improving prospects for output.
Probably some 434 billion barrels of crude have been discovered in the United States so far.
Of that, only about 141 billion
barrels can be recovered by conventional primary and secondary
methods, leaving 293 billion barrels
in known reservoirs as a target for
improved recovery technology.
Estimates of how much of this
residual can be added to the nation's reserves over a reasonable

length of time vary. There seems
to be some consensus, however,
that only about a fifth of the residual can be made available by
the turn of the century. The estimates range from a practically assured 19 billion barrels to an optimistic 55 billion.
Only about 1 percent of all crude •
production in the United States
comes from use of methods beyond
conventional flooding and repressurization. But with continued incentives and further technological
improvements, tertiary recoveryrecovery spurred by the introduction of heat or chemicals to loosen
oil from the sand and speed its floW
through formations-could make all
important contribution to the nation's crude supply by 1985.
That places crude produced bY
tertiary methods as far out as
some of the other sources of energY
to be developed over the next ten
years or so. But there will still be
a need for this oil as the nation
moves to primary dependence on
other energy sources.
Continued incentives are impOr'
tant in promoting further techn o-

logical improvements. Tertiary
~:covery takes ~arge amounts of
Igh-cost chemIcals and equip~ent. And though the location of
e oil is known, because the proce~ses involved in recovering it will
~~ill be new, initial costs could be
Flgh , malting financial risks heavy.
t or. the processes to be helpful,
1heIr costs will have to be kept beow the value of the oil recovered.
f How well costs match potentials
S~r recovery depends on the fields.
f Ince conditions in reservoirs vary
t ron: field to field, several types of
;~tIary methods are being studied.
10d' ho~ever, are devised to disge 011 and move it to the well.
a The viscosity of the oil, for exmple, and properties of the fluids
used to cut it loose from the sand
deter .
be . mIlle h ow much of the oil can
't displaced. And the permeabil~ ~ and porosity of the formations
he ermine how well the oil that
in~s been displaced can be flushed
o producing wells.
P ~he problems involved in such
prO]ects can be highly complex.
processes designed to improve diseffacement, for instance, can hurt
forts to push the oil out of the
ormations.

That, however, has been under
the two-tier system. According to
estimates by the Interstate Oil
Compact Commission, removal
of controls would probably allow
secondary and tertiary recovery
production to rise another 3.1 billion barrels.
Released from controls, prices
would go up. The commission expects the average price to rise at
least 74 cents a barrel and maybe
as much as $1.81. With higher
prices, producers could probably
afford to double the $3.4 billion
they have been expected to invest
in enhanced recovery under price
•.• may take more incentives
controls.
But more experience with these
While the sharp rise in crude prices
advanced techniques, together with
has provided strong stimulus to
more effort to refine them further
increase production, still more incould improve the nation's outlook
centive may be needed. Decontrol
for energy far beyond 1985.
of oil prices, for example, could
Incentives, in fact, are apt to
spur secondary and tertiary recovbecome increasingly important
ery over the next few years, in the
long run, speeding development of as primary reserves are drawn
the technology needed to bring out down in the years ahead. Included
among the nearly 300 billion bareven more of the oil that has been
rels of crude that cannot be recovleft in reservoirs.
ered by conventional primary and
Under the two-tier system of
secondary methods, for example,
price controls, most oil from fields
are close to 100 billion barrels of
produced at 1972 levels must be
very heavy crude that could probsold under a ceiling of $5.25 a barably best be removed by some sort
an~n~nit~al injecti~n of both water rel. To encourage increases in pro- of thermal method. Fully half of
duction, new oil and oil produced
aU c emlCals that accomplished
this, in fact-most of it in Caliat higher levels than in 1972 can
th ~ow. done with flooding plus all
fornia-is so heavy it could be rebe sold at the market price, which
re a lllight be done with tertiary
moved only if some sort of heat
adCovery would allow all stages of
has been about $10 a barrel.
was applied to thin it.
Of the 3.8 million barrels of oil
onvanced recovery to be done in
Since some of this oil occurs at
produced every day with enhanced
no~ ~tep. While this scheme might
shallow depths-much of it at less
recovery methods, about 63 perCaul e practical for all fields, it
than 500 feet-other possibilities
for d apparently be made workable cent is subject to the price ceiling.
for reaching it include open-pit
That is because much of the addiad some. There would be marked
mining. There could be environvantages t 0 recovery III one step. tional recovery effort could not
.
F
mental problems with such an apintoor example, water now injected increase production above 1972
proach. That, in fact, with still
levels. It could only prolong the
st a reservoir at the secondary
higher production costs, removes
output of declining fields.
pr~~e of recovery later has to be
mining as a possibility for several
Removal of controls could elimthirduced along with any oil at the
decades. But as the incentives and
inate what may be a disincentive
Could ~age. If these two stages
to take up enhanced recovery oper- technology continue to change,
0Per . e combined into a single
chances improve for this oil, too,
ations. With today's technology,
laos atlon, all the oil would be cut
to be taken out.
enhanced recovery has been exth e at one time and flushed to
in eweUb y water that could be left pected to provide a total of 5.4 bilth
-Stephen L. Gardner
e ground.
lion barrels of crude by 1980.
llUsin

ess Review I April 1975

Compression of a two-stage
sequence into a single recovery
operation is blocked mainly by difficulties in knowing physical conditions in reservoirs.
Meanwhile, by flooding first, engineers gain knowledge of.conditions in a field that is useful in
evaluating possibilities for tertiary
operations later, reducing some of
the risks of such a costly operation.
And as they develop better understanding of reservoir conditions
in particular fields, they move
closer to the day when they can go
directly into tertiary operations.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE NEW BUDGET
The federal budget for fiscal 1976
calls for record tax collections and
record spending.
On February 3, the President
presented to Congress the Administration's estimates and proposals
for taxes and expenditures. Because the budget presented by the
President is essentially a forecast
of federal fiscal activity, his budget
message outlined assumptions
made in developing revenue and
spending figures. Following are the
major assumptions for the year beginning July 1:
• An increase in defense outlays
to preserve force levels in the
face of rising costs
• A one-year moratorium on all
new spending programs except
those dealing with energy
• A 5-percent ceiling on both pay
increases for Government employees and benefits to individuals that had been tied to
changes in consumer prices
• A tax reduction providing $12
billion in tax relief to individuals
and $4 billion to corporations
• A fuel conservation program increasing oil and gas taxes by
$30 billion

The accuracy of the predictions
in the budget, then, depends on
the assumptions made in drawing
up the budget. Some of the assumptions were based on legislation
that will have to be passed. But
Congress could pass legislation
other than that proposed in the
budget, causing the forecast to
change. One such possibility would
be a cut in taxes that was more
than the $16 billion requested by
the President.
Other assumptions were based
on general economic conditions,
which could change. The Administration assumed, for example, that
unemployment will average about
8 percent of the labor force. If economic activity does not come up to
the President's expectations, tax
and spending forecasts could go
awry. If the unemployment rate
were to average 9 percent, tax
yields could fall below estimates as
much as $5.2 billion.
Receipts-The biggest increases
in revenue are expected to come
from corporate profit taxes and
excise taxes. But the forecast for
yields on excise taxes assumes passage of an excise tax on domestic

Outlook for deficit to grow
360 BILLION DOLLARS - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ",,,
\\\

.."

"\\,,
"~"~I
TOTAL EXPENDITURES \\\"\ "~,I"~"~'"~
,.",

300 -

240 180 120-;~~---r1---r---r---r--'1r--,---,1--~:--.-1
'68

'70

'72

SOURCE : U .S. Office of Management and Budget

'74

' 76

crude oil and natural gas. The
Administration estimates $15.2
billion from this new tax.
A big increase in social insurance
taxes and contributions is also expected. This is based on previously
enacted changes in Social Security
tax laws calling for increases in
taxable pay from $13,200 in 1974
to $14,100 in 1975 and $15,300
in 1976.
The decline in receipts from individual income taxes reflects part
of the proposed rebate on 1974
taxes, plus a special tax rebate
associated with higher oil and gas
taxes proposed by the President.
Other tax yields are expected to
rise, largely on the strength of revenue from the special $3-a-barrel
tariff on imported oil. Receipts
from this source were figured at
$3.8 billion.
Revenue estimates are already
off somewhat. As part of his energy
package, the President intended to
levy a $3-a-barrel tariff on imported oil. The tariff was to have
been imposed in monthly increments of $1 a barrel starting in
February. He has since agreed,
however, to postpone the second
and third monthly increases, cutting revenue from this source.
Expenditures-Spending is expected to surge more than 11 percent. Much of this, however, can
be accounted for by increases in
only two categories-defense and
unemployment insurance benefits.
Other increases are in healthrelated spending and interest payments on the national debt.
Spending on education, manpower, and social service programS
is due to decline slightly. Expenditures on agricultural programs will
have leveled off after several years
of decline.
-Brian P. Sullivan

- - - - RECEIPJS - - - 120 BILLION DOLLARS _~_ _
'It •

100 BILLION DOLLARS - - - -

...........

100 _

./~

80 -

40 BILLION DOLLARS - - - - -

30 -

80 _
INDIVIDUAL
INCOME TAXES

20 -

60 -

60 _

;::;:::;

... /

CORPORATION

-:-1 I'68 I'70 I'72 I'74 I' 76
I I I I I
66

EXCISE TAXES

10 -

40 -

20 -.,...,.....
1---r""1-r1---r""1""1"1-r1""1",-r-I"T'-Ir-"
'66 ' 68 '70 '72 '74 '76

.... .~.,

.'.'

-.-.-ro-r'-Tl"-''111I11I11I I
'66

'68 '70

' 72

'74

'76

- - - - - EXPENDITIURES - - 120 BILLION DOLLARS _ _ _ __

30 BILLION DOLLARS - - - - -

........"

..l

f ......

90 _
DEFENSE

:
:

: . . . .....
1...'

--..,.

12 BILLION DOLLARS - - - - -

NATURAL RESOURCES, ~
ENVIRONMENT,
•••••

!
9-

AND ENERGY

20 -

60 _

6 -

10 -

30 _

~...

",",

AGRICULTU}

'" ', .....

l'llllllll'
6

'68

SOURCE : US

'70

'72

'74

3 -

O--~I~I~'~I~'~'~II,rrl'I'I'

'76

'66

'68

'70

'72

'74

'76

, II, I, IIIII
'66

'68

'70

'72

'74

'76

. . Office of Management and Budget

............

n~.~---------------------------------------------------------InessR .
7
eVlew I April 1975

New member bank

Security National Bank, Houston, Texas, a newly organized institution located
in the territory served by the Houston Branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of
Dallas, opened for business March 10, 1975, as a member of the Federal Reserve
System. The new member bank opened with capital of $600,000, surplus of
$600,000, and undivided profits of $300,000. The officers are: B. H. McVicker,
M.D., Chairman of the Board; R. H. Keitt, President; and J. W. Pickett, Vice
President and Cashier.
New par banks

Interstate Bank, Houston, Texas, a newly organized insured nonmember bank
located in the territory served by the Houston Branch of the Federal Reserve
Bank of Dallas, opened for business February 28,1975, remitting at par. The
officers are: Weldon Luginbyhl, President, and Preston H. Rachal, Vice President
and Cashier.
American Bank, Huntsville, Texas, a newly organized insured nonmember bank
located in the territory served by the Houston Branch of the Federal Reserve Bank
of Dallas, opened for business March 10,1975, remitting at par. The officers are:
Ronald J. Mitchell, President, and Glen R. Reader, Vice President and Cashier.
Carmine State Bank, Carmine, Texas, an insured nonmember bank located in
the territory served by the Houston Branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of
Dallas, began remitting at par March 12,1975. The officers are: H. L. F. Doerr,
Jr., President; Gus Krause, Inactive Vice President; and Leroy Levien, Cashier.

Research Department
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Station K, Dallas, Texas 75222

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

April 1975

Statistical Supplement to the Business Review

'rotal ~redi t at weekly reporting
b
its-mainly accounts of individuals,
c an~ In the Eleventh District rose
businesses, and municipal governO~slderablY more in the four weeks ments-resulted in a slight gain in
~:rt~ March 19 than in comparable total time and savings deposits .
..;~ 0
·..,ew s of the past five years. The
.
of as In contrast to movements
Industrial output in Texas fell in
cre~~en.t months that showed total February, the third consecutive
o
eIther expanding moderately
month of decline. The decline, the
r Contracting
steepest in three months, was wideAll Of
.
reft t the increase in bank credit
spread among the state's major inin ec ed a sharp rise in bank holddustries.
e~s of securities. Holdings of GovOutput of petrochemicals was
bly Inent securities rose considerasharply curtailed. Manufacturers
tha:~re th~n usual. And a more
trimmed petroleum refining nearly
oth s.lXfold mcrease in holdings of
9 percent, as inventories of refined
ga;~ ISSUes exceeded the average
products were pressing storage caPast fior comparable periods of the
pacities. And production of chemiW veyears.
cals continued to trend downward,
pro eakness in loan demand
because customers made large purOfb:~~d the significant expansion chases as a hedge against possible
the fifthInvestment portfolios. For
shortages last year and have redeIn d consecutive month, loan
duced new orders this year.
Production of durable goods repara~7e w~ lower than in comllland w periods of recent years. Demained depressed, even though sup000 as weak for all major types
pliers of oil field and electricincre~s e~cept real estate. Recent
generating equipment continued
parentles In construction apoperating near peaks. Output of
for int ~ led to an increased need
utilities and mining showed little
real es~nm financing. The gain in
change from a month before.
eXPect ~!e loans exceeded seasonal
1ll0ntha Ions for the first time in six The labor market in the five souths.
western states deteriorated further
LOand
finan. ~mand from nonbank
in February. Seasonally adjusted,
trase Clallnstitutions declined conboth total employment and the ciUSed ~o~~llY. Thrift institutions
vilian labor force declined.
large I Za e savings inflows to make
Jobless statistics rose further,
With t~an repayments. Moreover,
with the unemployment rate climbgigh I e economy remaining sluging to 7.1 percent. Job losses contin, oan de
d
.
conSUIn
man of busmesses and ued to be centered in manufacturing, but payrolls in building
consecuet~s Was weak for the third
A. IVemonth
trades were also substantially
slzabl
..
Ied to a she drop l:r;t demand deposits lower.
In additio arp fall In total deposits.
After increasing sharply in the preUtive In n, for the second consecstandin onth, ~arge CD's outvious four weeks, seasonally adjusted purchases at department
more th~ d~clined considerably
the Past; In comparable periods of stores in the Eleventh District levother t· Ve years. But increases in
eled off from mid-February to
.
lme and savmgs deposmid-March.

Promotional campaigns designed
to lower post-Christmas inventories
produced an upturn in sales early in
the year. But since retailers have
been generally successful in reducing stocks, promotions, for the most
part, have been suspended. And
sales have returned to the sluggish
pace that began last summer.
New car purchases were up in February, the third consecutive month
of gain. Seasonally adjusted registrations of new cars rose 12 percent
in the four largest metropolitan
counties in Texas. As a result, February was the first month since
mid-1973 that sales topped yearearlier levels. The gain exceeded the
increases in the previous two
months and reflected effects of the
cash rebate program. Dealers reported cash rebates were generally
successful in reducing inventories of
new cars.
Preparations of land for spring
planting were progressing well in
states of the Eleventh District in
March, as soil moisture was favorable. In South Texas, planting of
cotton, corn, sorghum, peanuts, and
rice was already under way.
Acreage of major crops this year
is expected to be only slightly more
than last year. Increases in acreage
seeded to corn, sorghum, and soybeans would more than offset the
fewer acres planted to cotton, rice,
oats, and barley. Hay and peanut
acreages, meanwhile, would change
little from 1974. In Texas, farmers
plan to expand sorghum plantings
13 percent to 8.5 million acres-but
to reduce cotton acreage 19 percent
to 4.3 million acres.
Cattle feeding was still depressed.
Cattle on feed in Texas numbered
(Continued on back page)

CONDITION STATISTICS OF WEEKLY REPORTING COMMERCIAL BANKS

Eleventh Federal Reserve District
(Thousand dollars)
Mar. 19.
1975

ASSETS

Feb.19,
1975

Mar. 20,
1974

Mar. 19,
1975

LIABILITIES

..................... - .................

Total depOSits

Federal funds sold and securities purchased
under agreements to resell ...........
Other loans and discounts, gross .

2,002,272
1,929,698
10,316,946 10,345,094

Commercial and Industrial loans
Agricultural loans, excluding CCC
certificates of Interest
Loans to brokers and dealers for
purchasing or carrying :
U.S. Government securities
Other securities ....................................
Other loans for purchasing or carrying :
U.S. Government securities ..
Other securities .................................
Loans to nonbank financial Institutions:
Sales finance, personal finance, factors,
and other business credit companies ..
Other ..
...................
Real estate loans
Loans to domestic commercial banks .
Loans to foreign banks
................... ..
Consumer Instalment loans ............................ "".,
Loans to foreign governments, official
Institutions, central banks, and International
Institutions ............................
Other loans ..........
Total Investments ...
" ...................................

Total U.S. Government securities
Treasury bills .................................
Treasury certificates of Indebtedness ..
Treasury notes and U.S. Government
bonds maturing :
Within 1 year.
................., .
1 year to 5 years . , .............................. , ...
After 5 years ..................................................
Obligations of states and political subdivisions:
Tax warrants and short-term notes and bills .. ..
All other ............................................................
Other bonds, corporate stocks, and securities:
Certificates representing participations In
federal agencr, loans ........................
All other (Includ ng corporate stocks) ..
Cash Items In process of collection ...
Reserves with Federal Reserve Bank
Currency and coin ......................... .............
Balances with banks In the United States .
Balances with banks In foreign countries .... ...
Other assets (including Investments In subsidiaries
not conSOlidated)

1,948,101
9,872,802

4,942,072

4,927,967

4,366,917

200,839

222,339

295,293

15
27,863

15
24,542

445
49,532

2,330
396,520

2,415
399,321

4,474
442,673

141,071
564,316
1,492,484
67,339
78,332
1,106,768

163,352
604,281
1,474,414
48,11t
66,440
1,109,806

118,389
765,903
1,466,405
42,714
55,493
1,035 ,586

5
1,296,992
4,682,276

5
1,302,086
4,475,772

203
1,228,775
4,155,013

1,121 ,114
146,352
0

1,094,721
175,649
0

1,031,514
164,945
0

209,582
613,218
151,962

152,329
593,183
173,560
110,220
2,962,847
12,099
295,885
1,711,919
1,160,055
130,156
534,899
37,543

13,113
274,245
1,434,004
1,048,484
125,094
505,113
16,482

7,519,495
5,364,897
479,988
82,617
1,410,475

3,385
70,289
98,591
8,652,612

3,959
65,553
112,006
8,620,273

2,560
52,367
104,559
7,426,000

1,244,721
4,600,995
2,494,872
t1 ,729
272,458

1,201 ,106
4,689,292
2,465,331
14,570
226,037

1,170,532
4,079,09b
2,068,8 6
10,305
83,610

22,237
5,600

18,337
5,600

13,296
300

2,808,437
82,763
657,913
204,469
21,279
1,448,161

2,844,275
58,686
603,391
200,719
21,307
1,441,880

3,278,55:
167,05
492,505
178,190
24,252
1,278,860

21,127,480

TOTAL LIABILITIES, RESERVES , AND
CAPITAL ACCOUNTS .. .

21,310,026

----

1,009,078

984,890

Eleventh Federal Reserve District

850,522

21 ,310,026

19,955,615

".",DEMAND DEPOSITS

TIME DEPOSIT=--

CONDITION STATISTICS OF ALL MEMBER BANKS

(Million dollars)

Item

Feb. 26,
1975

Jan. 29,
1975

Feb. 27,
1974

ASSETS
Loans and discounts, gross
U.S. Government obligations ..
Other securities ................................. .
Reserves with Federal Reserve Bank
Cash In vault
.....
.
.
Balances with banks In the United States .......... ..
Balances with banks In foreign countrlese
Cash Items In process of collection . .
Other assetse ..

21,932
2,246
7,123
1,888
376
1,373
43
1,758
1,706

21 ,612
2,144
7,067
1,814
392
1,377
53
1,625
1,736

21 ,411
2,315
6,408
1,646
355
1,466
20
1,813
1,619

38,445

37,820

37 ,053

Total depoSits
.. ..
Borrowings ....................... .
Other lIabllities e ........ .. .......... .. ........ ..
Total capital accountse ..... .
TOTAL LIABILITIES AND CAPITAL
ACCOUNTSe .. .
e-Estlmated

Total

Adjusted '

U.S.
Government

Total

1 973: February
1974: February ....
March
April
May ....
June ........
July .
August.. ........
September
October ..
November .
Decembar
t 975 : January ........
February ..

Eleventh Federal Reserve District

LIABILITIES AND CAPITAL ACCOUNTS
Demand deposits of banks ... .... .
Other demand depoSits
Time depOSits .................. .

19,955~

DEMAND AND TIME DEPOSITS OF MEMBER BANKS

Date

TOTAL ASSETSe

=--

(Averages of dally figures . Million dollars)
21,127,480

TOTAL ASSETS ..

7,110,196
5,077,322
451,602
169,709
1,252,077

7,251,846
5,221,944
414,349
162,914
1,280,374

151 ,360
2,684,781

8,425
370,802
1,367,039
1,119,420
130,442
469,653
30,354

15,904,458 16,139,768 14,536,196

Total demand depoSits ............................
Individuals, partnerships, and corporations .
States and political subdivisions ..
U.S. Government .............. ",." ...................
Banks In the United States
.....................
Foreign :
Governments, official Institutions, central
banks, and International Institutions
Commercial banks ..............
Certified and officers' checks, etc . .
Total time and savings deposits ..........................
Individuals, partnerships, and corporations:
Savings deposits ................... ", ............... "',,.
Other time deposits .................... ".
States and political subdivisions ........................
U.S. Government (Including postal savings) ......
Banks In the United States ..............................
Foreign :
Governments, official Institutions, central
banks, and International Institutions
Commercial banks ..... ..........................
Federal funds purchased and securities sold
under agreements to repurchase ..
Other liabilities for borrowed money
Other liabilities ....
Reserves on loans ...... ... .. ........................ ,
Reserves on securities ... .
Total capital accounts ..

152,452
514,652
199,465

104,894
3,077 ,041

Mar. 20,
1974

Feb. 19,
1975

13,270
13,949
13,933
13,984
13,553
13,742
13,809
13,634
13,740
13,687
13,843
14,351
14,180
13,956

9,516
10,082
10,150
10,289
9,880
10,030
10,056
9,988
9,973
9,976
10,148
10,355
10,353
10,245

379
264
260
236
278
240
2t2
175
222
149
138
208
166
150

12,811
14,919
15,126
15,143
15,148
15,333
15,442
15,509
15,586
15,714
16,016
16,177
16,842
17,052

1,703
12,079
17,013

1,800
12,166
15,065

30,894
3,258
1,612
2,681

30,795
2,795
1,564
2,666

29,031
4,213
1,312
2,497

2,817
2,909
2,958
2,975
2,962
2,979
2,983
2,95 6
2952
2:97 7
3,009
3,049
3079
3'12 4

'--

1. Other than those of U.S. Government and domestic commercial banks, less cpsn
Items In process of collection

RESERVE POSITIONS OF MEMBER BANKS

Eleventh Federal Reserve District
(Averages of dally figures . Thousand dollars)

1,701
12,134
17,059

Savl~

Item
Total reserves held ... .... ......... .
With Federal Reserve Bank
Currency and coin
Required reserves
Excess reserves " ........ ...... ,..
Borrowings
Free reserves .

4 weeks ended
Mar. 5, 1975

5 weeks ended

1,998,763
1,665,927
332,836
1,992 ,523
6,240
11 ,889
- 5,649

2,062,531
1,701 ,048
361,483
2,036,179
26,352
22,578
3,774

Feb. 5, 1975

d
Mar. 6, ~

4 weeks end:
1991,735
1'679,392
'312,3 43
1 982,9 45
, 8,790
39,027

- 30~

BANK DEBITS, END-Of-MONTH DEPOSITS, AND DEPOSIT TURNOVER

SMSA' S . Eleventh Federal Reserve District
In
(DOllar amo unts In thousands, seasonally adjusted)
_
DEBITS TO DEMAND DEPOSIT ACCOUNTS '

DEMAND DEPOSITS'

Percent change

Standard metropolitan
statistical area

ARIZONA: Tucson
LOUISIANA' M
....
,

....................................

onroe .... ,

NEW
Shreveport
.......................
TEX MEXICO: Roswell '
AS: Abilene
.... " ... " ........
Amarillo '" .
"." .............................
Austin
............................. '.

~~aumoni~portArth~r~oriinge ·······

B ownsvilie-Harlingen-San Ben'I'iO"
C~r~~-~~g~I~~ Station ....................
Corsicana'
................................
...................... , ........
Dallas
.................. ,
EI Paso '"
Fort Worth
Galveston-Texiis ·ci·················
Hous(o
ty ........._..
, ............ , ......
Killeen-~empi';·· .
Laredo
........ " .. , ........
......................
LUbbock
~~~~~~-Phiirr~E·(jinbU;g·: ...
Odessa
................ ,
San Angiiiii""""" , .. , .................... " .....
..........
San Antonio ..
... ", ......... , .. , ..
Sherman-Denison '''''''''''''''''' .... ".,", ....... ,"",."".

~~~rk~~~ .(TeXas-;.:;kiinsiisi
BOO

............ ,., ..

Wlchltii'Fiiiis
Total_30
centers

;0----=

.""

............ " .... .

Feb. 1975 from

Feb.
1975
(Annual-rate
basis)

..... " " " " " " , ......... "

..................................................................

Annual rate
of turnover

Jan .
1975

Feb.
1974

2 months,
1975 from
1974

$16,845,271
5,594,198
21,220,210
1,305,805
4,172,837
10,030,145
20,133,362
10,744,008
4,017,384
1,696,999
12,482,480
752,782
260,695,469
13,721,005
41,029,159
4,654,613
260,925,944
2,914,254
1,906,193
9,556,188
4,331,134
4,141,823
3,342,466
2,891,818
32,196,293
1,535,027
2,317,355
3,856,345
6,417,617
4,954,390

4%
0
10
- 10
4
- 4
-4
- 8
8
- 7
7
2
12
13
4
-1 6
6
5
- 2
20
- 9
- 6
5
6
6
- 8
4
- 1
9
7

10%
8
21
- 10
8
2
5
5
19
9
0
9
8
- 3
6
15
29
9
5
- 9
20
26
27
19
9
0
10
25
32
15

7%
7
21
- 3
2
- 1
8
7
14
11
3
3
10
- 4
5
28
28
7
8
- 21
23
28
30
12
8
2
9
22
24
16

$367,843
125,230
333,900
52,368
149,444
243,687
476,304
328,211
127,065
60,148
304,618
41,813
3,168,520
348,988
943 ,682
141,762
3,999,755
120,061
68,729
233,975
166,167
218,253
138,696
96,332
920,036
87,445
91,669
136,102
168,988
182,602

46.6
45,0
62.5
25.6
28.9
42.5
46.1
33.1
32.3
28.5
41.0
18.2
84.2
41 .5
44,0
32.7
66.0
24.3
28.2
41 .5
26.3
19.3
25.0
30.1
35.4
17.7
25.2
27.6
39.1
27 .5

45.1
46,9
54,9
28.2
28.0
43.7
51.2
36.2
30.6
30.9
39.8
18.0
77.1
38.7
42.8
38.2
63.3
23.5
28.8
34.1
28.5
19.7
24.3
28.1
33.5
19.1
23.9
26.3
37.3
26.0

42,2
43,2
52,7
26.3
25.0
41.4
40.1
33.6
27.7
25.2
41.9
16.2
81.0
43.8
45,2
29.8
57.0
22.8
28.5
41 .1
22.7
17.6
23.9
26.6
32.9
18.4
22.5
23.6
31.4
27.0

15%

$13,842,393

53.7

52.2

14%

56.6

$770,382,574

Feb. 28,
1975

Feb.
1975

Jan .
1975

Feb.
1974

2' COunty basis
. eposits ollndlvld uals, partnerships, and corporations and 01 states and political subdivisions

CONDITIO

(Th

N Of THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK Of DALLAS

.....

BUILDING PERMITS

oUsand dOllars)

Mar. 26,
1975

VALUE OF
(MIUlo

.. ...... . ....

Mar. 27,
1974
437,029
138,378
0
93,280
3,411 ,391
3,643,049
1,726,860

464,998
12,600
0
214,277
3,698,409
3,925,286
1,888,320

2,414,055

2,615,229

2,648,081

CONSTRUCTION CONTRACTS

n dOllars)

........

January-February

~type

ESOU
STATEJ,HWESTERN
Resld
...........
Nonr
ulldin "" ""'"
N
lal bUII~'ln"'"''
UNI
ST
construct?on'
Resld
ATES .....
.. ..
Nonr entlal bUlldl,; ""''''''''''''

Nonb~~ldentlal bUII~'I 'ri""'"''''

Feb.
1975

Jan .
1975

Dec.
1974

1975

1974r

693
231
335
128
4,955
1,583
2,199
1,172

770
267
337
166
5,100
1,562
2,233
1,305

673
237
268
168
7,304
1,715
2,451
3, 139

1 ,463
498
672
293
10,036
3,146
4,413
2,476

1,613
651
610
352
12,257
4,746
4,487
3,024

Idlng Constr 9 ........
uctlon ....
n
-Revis a, LOUISiana N
~OTE : ~d
' ew Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas
OURe eta its ma n
E: F. W. D~~t a~d to totals because of rounding .
e, cGraw-HIII, Inc.

~ . Arllo

VALUATION (Dollar amounts In thou sands)

Feb. 26,
1975

609,918
9,166
0
220,710
3,589,895
3,819,771
1,762 ,463

;---.
Item
otal gOld
Loans to Certificate reserves
ember banks ... " '"
~ther loa::'a
ederal a "" " ......
U.S. Gov gency obllgailon's" . .. ...
Total earernment securities '"
.. ..
Memba nlng assets
...... .. ....
Fed
r bank r
. " . ' '' '
..
eral reserv eserve deposits
clrCUlatio e notes In actual .

Percent chang e
Feb. 1975
from

NUMBER

Area

Feb.
1975

2 mos.
1975

Jan.
1975

847

$4 ,209

$10,407

- 32%

2 mos.
1975

Feb.
1974

ARIZONA
398
Tucson ......
LOU ISIANA
Monroe55
West Monroe ....
438
Shreveport.. .
TE XAS
98
Abil ene..........
Amarillo ........ ,. .. 151
380
Au stin .......
160
Beaumont ...
Brownsville ,. .... 103
Corpus Christi .. 210
1,407
Dallas .....
14
Denison .. ".
341
EI Paso .....
311
Fort Worth
36
Galveston .......
Houston ......... .. 1,809
Laredo ......
32
111
LubbOck .......
Midland ........
97
98
Odessa ......
Port Arthur ......
79
San Angelo ....
65
San Antonio ... 1,122
Sherman ..........
18
Texarkana
43
Waco .......... ,
163
76
Wichita Falls

111
928

1,301
3,867

2,904
6,798

- 19
32

- 29
- 60

161
358
697
329
196
429
2,766
36
683
620
86
3,516
75
230
194
170
92
107
2,305
42
103
316
130

1,923
3,258
16,773
2,122
555
2,435
11 ,528
105
4,830
4,714
129
39,276
85
3,181
1,769
2,731
245
1,209
5,837
102
223
785
1,404

3,058
6,233
21 ,462
3,783
1,312
7,282
49,487
429
26,056
8,388
1,431
93,613
816
7,559
3,463
3,653
523
1,710
13,238
954
873
2,889
1,847

69
11
258
28
- 27
- 50
- 70
- 68
- 77
28
- 90
- 28
- 88
- 27
4
196
- 12
141
-21
- 88
- 66
- 63
217

135
- 11
23
52
- 42
- 55
- 40
- 18
- 32
- 25
- 73
- 18
60
- 83
83
53
31
45
- 75
- 56
- 44
- 72
159

7,815

15,527

$114,623

$280,168

- 30%

- 34%

Total-26 cities ..

- 9%

2 months,
1975 from
1974
- 32%
21
-45
74
25
34
24
82
13
16
- 8
25
- 44
- 50
- 23
389
- 79
- 73
- 38
15
- 29
- 70
65
34
- 31
48
-

- 31 %

DAILY AVERAGE PRODUCTION OF CRUDE OIL

LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT

(Thousand barrels)

Five Southwestern States'
Percent change from
Feb.
1975

FOUR SOUTHWESTERN
STATES ..
Louisiana .
New Mexico .,
Oklahoma
Texas ..............
Gulf Coast
West Texas .
East Texas (proper) .
Panhandle
Rest of state
UNITED STATES ...

Jan.
1975

Feb .
1974r

Jan.
1975

Feb .
1974

5,973.0
1,904.5
267.0
453.5
3,348.0
655.0
1,786.5
214 .5
53.5
638 .5
8,495 .5

Area

6,043.2
1,945 .7
267.5
462.0
3,368.0
663.6
1,787.7
217.4
54.4
644.9
8,583.7

6,542.4
2,194.7
273.6
552.1
3,522.0
679 .8
1,853.6
202 .3
59 .6
726.7
9,155.9

- 1.2%
-2 .1
-. 2
- 1.8
-.6
- 1.3
-. 1
- 1.3
- 1.7
- 1.0
- 1.0%

(Seasonally adjusted)

-8.7%
- 13.2
- 2.4
- 17.9
- 4.9
- 3.7
- 3.6
6.0
- 10.2
- 12.1
- 7.2%

Thousands of persons

Percent change
Feb. 1975 from

-----

r-Revlsed
SOURCES : American Petroleum Institute
U.S . Bureau of Mines
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

LIVESTOCK ON FARMS AND RANCHES, JANUARY 1

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

(Thousands)

(Seasonally adjusted Indexes, 1987 - 100)
Five southwestern
Texas

United States

states'

Type

1975

1974

1975

1974

1975

1974r

All cattle and
calves .....
Milk cows .
Beef cows .........
Sheep .
Stock sheep ....
Feeders
Hogs' ..
Layer chickens' ..
Turkey breeder

16,600
350
6,890
2,688
2,484
204
940
10,000

16,250
350
6,470
3,090r
2,700r
390
1,050
11,200

27,822
701
11 ,598
3,877
3,495
382
1,590
16,713

27,020
705r
10,775r
4,372r
3,810r
562
1,686
18,084

131,826
11,217
45,421
14,538
12,480
2,058
55,062
284,501

127,670
11,286
43,008
16,394
13,744
2,650
61,106
296,462

2,970

3,553

hens' ....

415

500

' 423

' 516

r- Revised
1. Arizona, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas
2. Data as of December of preceding year
3. Oklahoma and Texas only
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Agriculture

1.1 million head on March 1-54
percent fewer than a year earlier.
And in Arizona, 304,000 head were
being fed-49 percent fewer than a
year before.
Even with a drop in cattle feeding, however, beef production in
Texas was up nearly 33 percent
over a year earlier. By contrast,
pork and lamb production was off
substantially.
The index of prices Texas farmers
and ranchers received in the month
ended February 15 declined for the
fourth consecutive month. Average

Area and type of Index
TEXAS
Total Industrial production ..
Manufacturing .
Durable .................. ..
Nondurable
~n~g ............... ..................... .
Utilities ...................... .
UNITED STATES
Total Industrial production .
Manufacturing
Durable ............................ ..
Nondurable
Mining .......
Utilities

.-.

Jan.
1975

Dec.
1974

Feb.
1974

132.9
138.7
157.6
125.1
109.7
168.4

136.1
143.1
161.1
130.2
110.5
168.0

138.6r
145.1r
161 .3
133.5r
114.8r
169.4r

135.9
141.8
159.2
129.3
117.4
151.4

110.3
108.9
104.1
116.0
108.0
145.8

113.7
112.2
108.1
118.3
108.9
145.7

117.7r
116.3r
112.3r
122.0r
105.1r
150.7

124.6
124.5r
119.4'
131.5r
111 .7r

p-Prellmlnary
r-Revlsed
SOURCES: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

prices dropped 4 percent to a level
28 percent less than a year earlierand the lowest in two years. A substantial decline in prices for crops
combined with a slight reduction in
prices for livestock and livestock
products to produce the decline in
prices in February.
The index of prices farmers paid
remained unchanged from the previous month. An increase in consumption expenses was offset by
lower production costs. The index
of prices paid was 12 percent higher
than a year before.

Feb.
1975p

Full text of Review (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas) : April 1975

FRASER