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Monthly Business Review OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS ~~==============================~=========== Jolume 25, No.2 Dallas, Texas, April 1, 1940 This COpy is released for pub· M 30 ~~==============================================~====================;lic;a;ti;on~in;;a;fro;r~n~o~on~p~ap~e;r&-~;;~ar~.~ DISTRICT SUMMARY i IFthe Eleventh Distr~ct, industrial activity increased durn~ ebruary and distribution of merchandise at wholesale a~ retail continued in large volume. Daily average sales a department stores were 2 per cent greater than in the corl'esp t on d'mg- month last year, and the volume of wholesale rade exceeded that of a year ago by the widest margin for ~}Y month since last September when business was stimb ~te~ by widespread speculative buying. Activity in the ulldmg industry showed a noticeable increase, reflecting an expansion in privately-financed construction. The daily aver~ge production of petroleum, which had been reduced lonslderably in January, was expanded in February to a ievel 4, per cent higher than a year ago. Refinery operations thereased further, and were at a much higher level than in h e con-esponding month last year. Agricultural conditions ave shown a noticeable improvement since the January rreezes. BUSINESS 1 Tfe large consumer buying power resulting from higher i~ve s of. employment and payrolls continues to be reflected .the dIstribution of merchandise at depaltment stores in ~flneipal cities of the Eleventh District. Although daily avert~e sales during February at reporting firms showed less e d~ the average seasonal expansion over those in the pre1~3~g month, they were 2 per cent greater than in February, III ,a;td were as large or larger than in any corresponding atOrth m ten years. This bank's adjusted index of sales stood e 07 per cent of the 1923-1925 average in February, as r~lllpared with 113 in the preceding month and 105 in Febth ary last year. Total sales during the first two months of 1 e eUn-ent year exceeded those in the corresponding period t::t Y?ar by 5 per cent. Stimulated by the early date of Easdur~hlS year, department store trade showed a sharp increase mg the first two weeks of March. er Inventories of merchandise at reporting firms were inWi~hsed by about the average seasonal amount in February, th the result that the adjusted index of stocks on hand at a e close of February showed virtually no change from that al'lll~nth earlier. The dollar value of inventories on Febru~ 9 Was 7 per cent higher than a year ago. ae he rate of collections on both open and instalment ~.unt~ co.ntinued above that a year ago. nel l~tnbutlOn of merchandise through wholesale trade chanhi in the Eleventh District continued at a comparatively reg ~vel in February. Aggregate sales for the month at 76 slrhr~mg wholesale firms in eight lines of trade were only th~s t smaller than in the preceding month and exceeded Th' e In. the corresponding month of 1939 by 12 per cent. ila Is gam was, with one exception, the largest for any sim· in r comparison in recent years, and reports show that tr~deases were fairly general among the several lines of Oee e. Th~ most significant increases over a year ago gr urr~d m the distribution of drugs, electrical supplies, th~cenes and machinery and equipment. Total sales during in t~rst tW? months of 1940 were 11 per cent greater than lug ~ penod last year. The value of inventories at reportrUa W olesale trade firms showed little change during Febry, but continued eonsiderably higher than a year ago. Collections on outstanding ac'counts were maintained at about the same rate as in the corresponding month last year_ According to the data compiled by the Bureau of Business Research of the Uni,:ersity of Texas, employment and payrolls at Texas establIshments, which had declined in January, increased fractionally in February. As compared with February last year, there were increases of 3.4 per cent in employment and of 3.9 per cent in payrolls. According to Dun & Bradstreet, the number and liabilities of commercial failures in the Eleventh District during February continued at a much lower level than a year ago. In fact, the indebtedness of the 23 defaulting firms, which totaled $200,000, was below that for any corresponding month for which data are available. AGRICULTURE Agricultural conditions in the Eleventh District showed a noticeable improvement during February and the first half of March. Fairly general rains provided much needed moisture which, together with the milder temperatures, aided in the recovery of crops that were damaged by the January fre~zes and .left the soil in generally good condition for sprmg ploWlng and planting operations. The persistence of cool nights during February, however, had a retarding effect on crop growth. Moisture conditions are now more favorable than at any time in recent months, with surface moisture in ~ost areas adequate to give spring crops and range vegetatIOn a good start. Subsoil moisture, however, is still deficient over a large portion of the district, particularly in south Texas and in considerable areas of the central part of the St~te. Farmel:s have made go.od progress with plowing ~nd seedmg operatIOns. The plantmg of corn has extended mto central Texas and the seeding of cotton is well advanced in the southern part of the State. Small grains are m.aking fair to good progress, but the condition of the crops for the district as a whole continues below nor~al. The Texas oat crop has shown an appreciable recovery smce the January freezes, and it appears that damage from the low temperatures will be much less than had been antic.i pated earlier. The winter wheat crop in the n.orthwest portIOn .o~ the Texas Panhandle is in good condihon, and the condItIOn of the crop elsewhere in the district, although somewhat spotty, is showing improvement. LIVESTOCK ON it FARMS JANUARY I OF EACH YEAR ELEVENTH FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT .0 r This publication was digitized and made available by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' Historical Library (FedHistory@dal.frb.org) MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 2 Commercial vegetable crops in south Texas were aided by the February rains, but little tonnage is expected from those crops damaged severely by the January freezes. Additional moisture is urgently needed in the non·irrigated areas of this section to replenish subsoil moisture and to sustain the growth of spring crops. The indicated production of citrus fruit in Texas remains the same as that on February 1, which was nearly one·fifth smaller than the estimated production prior to the damage sustained in January. Although citrus trees are recovering rapidly from the freezes, the 194,0 bloom is expected to be about thirty days later than usual. Livestock ranges in the Eleventh District showed a moderate improvement during February in consequence of the betterment in moisture conditions, but the recovery was insufficient to overcome the damage resulting from the January freezes since the cool nights retarded the growth of range feeds. Nevertheless, the outlook for spring ranges is generally good, as weather and moisture conditions in most areas of the district are now favorable for rapid growth of grass and weeds. The condition of livestock showed little change during February, except for a noticeable shrinkage in cattle along the Gulf Coast caused by unfavorable weather. According to the Department of Agriculture, cattle and sheep are in condition to take on flesh rapidly with an improvement in range feeds. Some additional losses of young calves have occurred, but prospects are favorable for large calf and lamb crops. The inventory of livestock on farms at the beginning of 1940 in the five states wholly or partially included in the Eleventh District showed an increase of 3 per cent over that a year earlier and exceeded the 1929-1938 average by 9 per cent. The gain as compared with the preceding year was due to the increased supply of hogs, sheep and goats, which more than counterbalanced the smaller supply of other classes of livestock. Production of hogs, which had shown a noticeable upward trend in the preceding four years, increased sharply further in 1939, exceeding the number slaughtered and marketed by a wide margin. In consequence, the number of hogs on farms at the beginning of WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE STATISTICS ___- - - Percentage changc in: -Ratio Fcb. collections Stocks· to accounts outstandNet .ales ing February 1 , Feb., 1040 from Jan. 1 to Feb., 1940 from ,r-~---':"'Feb., Jan., Feb. 29, 1040 Feb., Jan., InstalRetail trade: 10ao 1040 from 1930 1030 1940 Regular ment Department stores: 30 .6 16.4 4.0 7.3 +12 . 6 Total 11th Dist . . + 6.6 + .6 40 .3 16. 6 2.3 +13 .0 Dallas . . ........ + 7.5 + 4.2 6.3 35 .6 11 .6 3. 7 9.6 Fort Worth .... .. + 8. 3 + 7.6 6. 6 37.8 + 2. 1 +17.4 +21.2 42 Houston .... .. .. . + 1.1 - 6.0 .9 i4:4 6.0 7. 2 + 6.8 San Antonio .. ... +1 1. 0 + 1.3 30.4 16 .4 +13 .6 +13.0 2. 6 Other oities .... .. + 4.1 - 6. 1 Independent stores:t +12 .7 ArIZona .. .. .... . +14.4 .... .. 2. 6 Oklahoma ....... + 6 0 + 3 .3 New M.xieo ..... +12 7 ...... 9S 6.9 Texas .. .... .. ... + 0.8 + 2.1 Wholcsele trade:t Machinery, cqp' t &: s uppl ies (el cept electrical) .. .... . +41.6 - 4.0 +87 .0 .... .. .. .... 26 . 2 ...... +23 .0 + 3.0 37. 0 Dry goods .. ...... + 6.0 - 12 . 6 Groceries .. .. ..... + 0.6 + 3 .6 + 8.2 +13 .3 .6 01.0 Drugs .. .......... +16 .0 - 3.6 +16. 2 + 2.4 + . 1 76 .6 Hardware ........ + 6.6 - 0.4 + 6. 6 + 8. 6 + 1.7 67 .1 Electrical supplies. +11.2 +10 .7 +12 .4 86.0 Tobacco & prod's.. + 4.4 +11.7 0.0 84.8 Surgical eqp't ..... -11.1 +33 .3 - 17.0 66 .2 ·Stooks at olose of month. tCompiled by United States Departmont of Commoroo. ,...------- - -v + + + + + , + + + + + + + + INDEXES OF DEPARTMENT STORE SALES AND STOCKS (1023·25 nvernge= IOO) With seasonal adjustment Without seasonal adjustment Total Eloventh Dist .. Dallas ..... .. ....... Fort Worth .......... Houston ... .. . ...... . San Antonio .... ... .. Sales-Feb. 1040 1039 107.3 104.8 110.2 ~~46·. ~ 110.6 101.2 104.6 9S . 2 01.0 Stooks-Feb. 1940 1939 70 .3 66 . 6 71.5 70.3 64.6 61.0 64 .3 40 .2 66 .6 52.S Sales-Feb. 1040 1930 01.2 80 .1 104 .0 100 .6 01.7 88. 3 86.0 88.8 S1.6 76.6 Stocke-Feb. 1940 1930 67 .5 63 .0 OS. 6 67.6 62 .0 50.4 50 .6 46 .8 56.2 63.3 194,0 was nearly one-fourth larger than a year earlier. The production of lambs in 1939 was substantially lower than in the preceding year but a decline in marketings was responsible for a further increase of 2 per cent in the sheep population. In Texas, marketings of sheep and lambs during 1939 were about 15 per cent smaller than in 1938. In the cattle division of the livestock industry, lower production combined with heavier shipments to markets and to feed lots and pastures caused a further decline in the number of cat· tle and calves on farms. Reflecting a continuation of the trend toward mechanical farming, the number of horses an~ mules on farms declined further by 3 per cent in 1939 an at the beginning of the current year the number was IB per cent less than the 1929·1938 average. Production of wool in the Eleventh District during 1939 amounted to 100,200,000 pounds, which was 2 per cent less than the record growth in 1938 but above that for any pre· ceding year. A lighter weight per fleece, caused by a sloW development of sheep in the spring of 1939, was responsible for the decline in production during the past year. The nuJl1' ber of sheep shorn in 1939 showed a moderate increase over thaL a year earlier. Despite the contraction in output, cash income from the sale 'If wool was 12 per cent higher th~n in 1938, reflecting an average increase of 14 per cent In local market prices. Production of shorn wool in the United States during the past year recorded a new high at 377, 4,00,000 pounds, which was 2 per cent higher than the 193B growth. Mohair production in this district increased 12 per ce~t in 1939 to 17,700,000 pounds, and cash income from thiS source was more than 50 per cent greater than in the pre· ceding year. The 1939 clip in the Eleventh District rep' resented about 95 per cent of all mohair produced in the United States, which aggregated 18,700,000 pounds. FINANCE Daily average reserves of member banks maintained at Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas declined about $2,000,00 during February and remained at the lower level during thd first half of March. In the latter period, reserves avera~e d about $30,000,000 higher than in the corresponding peno tho NUMBER AND VALUE OF LIVESTOCK ON FARMS AS OF JA NUARY 1, 1930 AND 1040-(OOO's omitted) , TOlas - - - - v - - E leventhDistriott-----No. head Totnl value No. hend ~ 1040 Horses and oolts ... . . . 670 669 Mules and mule colts . 6,677 All oattle and oalves . . Milk cows· ...... . . .. 1,443 Hogs, including pigs .. 2,203 All sheep nnd lambs .. 10,069 Goats and kids ... .... 3,300 1930 1040 1039 670' 34,860' 36,871 687 63,347 50,212 6,066 100,782 170,348 1,458 64,834 62,4S8 1,820 13,000 14,310 0,S66 40,413 43,046 3,142 10,560 8,79S 1940 10aO 1040 193007 1,350 1,384 ' 70,440' ~~'t87 1,052 1,002 80,997 'IS2 12,229 12,363 374,502 3~~'IBl 2,618 2,615 108,353 28'795 4,674 3,807 26,077 62'171 13,006 13,660 70,137 +8'198 1:3,300 1:3,142 1:10,660",,:,:-:: $610,49 0 Total . . . . .. .. . 23,677 23,130 S361 ,042 $342,404 36,610 36,42S $640,71 cd in ·Cows nnd heifers two yenrs old and over kept for milk; number nnd valuo iDclud 5¥o "all cattle and calves." tEleventb District figures represent oombined totals for tbe states wholly or partially inoluded in the Elovonth Distriot. lTexas only. SOURCE: United States Department of Agriculture. -- ------ -- - - -----a FORT WORTH LIVESTOCK RECEIPTS (Number) Fobruary Fobruary Change over January 1040 1030 1040 year 20,520 33,684 -4,064 41,460 Cattle ... .. .. . ... . .. . . . .. -2,640 18,456 23,476 21,096 Calves .. ... ... .. . .. .... . 37,837 30,662 40,654 +7,175 Hogs .. .. ............... . 20,680 38,614 - 3,084 3S,760 Shoep .. .. .... .. ........ . OOMPARATIVE TOP LIVESTOCK PRICES (Dollars por hundredweight) February February 1040 1030 $10.25 Beof steers .... .. . . ... . .. . , . ..... . ... . . . ..... . ... . , 0.25 8.76 0.00 Stooker steers ........... . . .. . .. •. . . ..... .... ..... 11.00 10.00 Heifers and yearlings ... . .... . . .. .. ......... .. .. .. 6.60 6.60 Butcher cows ....... ... ........... .. ... ......... . 0.00 8.60 Calves . . .. . . .... ... ... .. . . · ······ ·.··•· · ·· ... · . . 8. 10 6.60 8.50 ~:ti;.·.:::: :: :::: : :: :: ::::::::: : :: : :: :::: :::::: 8.76 JanuarY 1040 $ 0.35 8.S0 10. 00 6.60 9. 00 6.86 8. 60 MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW last year. Since the beginning of 1940 excess reserves have ~veraged about 60 per cent of required reserves. Total earntng assets of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas showed little change between February 15 and Maxth 15. Federal Reserve notes of this bank in actual circulation showed a further seasonal decline during the past month, but the total outstanding on March 15 was $3,900,000 higher than a year ago. d The seasonal liquidation of loans that had been in evi· ence during the first six weeks of 1940 at weekly reportIng member banks in leading cities of the Eleventh District Continued during the four weeks ended March 13 but at a slower rate. In the latter period loans were reduced $4,600,000, making a total contraction of $16,200,000 since the beginning of 1940. Although the decline in loans thus far this year contrasts with a moderate increase during the ~~rresponding period of 1939, the total of $270,600,000 on "Vl/lrch 13 was still $23,900,000 greater than a year ago. Ihvestments of these banks showed little net change during t2 e four-week period. Total loans and investments of $532,00,000 on March 13 were $4~900,000 less than four weeks darlier, but $26,100,000 greater than on the corresponding ate last year. Adj usted demand deposits at reporting banks expanded further between February 14 and March 13, but this increase ~as more than counterbalanced by a sharp contraction in Interbank deposits. Total deposits at the middle of March Were $106,200,000 greater than a year earlier. f Charges to depositors' accounts at banks in principal cities the Eleventh District declined less than seasonally from · anuary to February and the increase over the correspond~ng month last year widened to 12 per cent. In the preceding · OUr months, debits averaged about 9 per cent higher than In the same period of the previous year. The dollar volume o.f debits during February was the largest for that month Slnce 1929_ J INDUSTRY b Construction activity in the Eleventh District, as measured y the value of contracts awarded, rose 8 per cent from Jan~ary to February, reflecting marked increases in residenhal and non-residential building. Moreover, the total Va lUe of awards was the largest for any February in several ~ears, exceeding that in the corresponding month of 1939 y 11 per cent. Residential building, which had shown a dOWnward trend in the preceding four months, increased to a point 52 per cent higher than in January and 28 per dent.above.th~t in February.last year. T~e expansion in resiD~hal bUlldmg reflects chlefly the lettmg of contracts for · Dlted States Housing Authority projects and an increase ~n speculative building. Non-residential building continued expand during February due principally to the larger hwards for manufacturing buildings. Total non-residential uilding was about 44 per cent greater than in February last ~ear: In contrast with the rise in residential and non-resiential bUilding during February, public works and utilities fionstruction, which consists in large part of publiclynanced projects, declined sharply, being about one-third slllaller than in February a year ago. During the first two nths of 1940 privately-financed construction constituted per cent of the total, which compares with about 50 per Cent'lD the comparable period of 1939. Production of crude petroleum in the Eleventh District ~nd in the United States expanded 3 per cent from January .A. February and continued at a higher level than a year ago. t further increase in output was recorded during the first Wo weeks of March in consequence of higher production ° is° allowables in several major producing states. In Texas the allowable was more than 160,000 barrels daily above the estimated demand for Texas crude oil as computed by the CONDITION OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK (In thousands of dollal'!J) March 15, March 15, 1040 1039 Total cash rC!ervC! . .. .. ..... .. .. ..... . .. .. .. .... . $240,059 $230,025 Dieeounts for member banla! .. . . . . . ............ ... . 131 319 Other bills discounted .... . . .. . . . .. .. . ...... .. .... . 60 NOllc Industrial advances . .. .... . . ......... .... .. ...... . 481 601 Bills bought in thc open market ... .... ...... ...... . Nonc 16 United States Government securities . . . .. . . . ....... . 04,362 106.419 05,034 Total carning aBBets .. . .. .... .. . ....... .. .. .... . . . 107,355 Member bank reserve deposits . . .. ... .. ... . . . .... . . 210,002 183,096 Federal Reserve notes in notusl circulation . .• . ... . .. 76,206 8~~~: Commitments to make industrial advaneaa ..... . . .. . 44 Feb. 15, 1040 $248,535 69 151 483 None 94,362 05,065 217,582 8~~!~ CONDITION STATISTICS OF MEMBER BANKS IN LEADING CITIES (In thousands of dollars) March 13, March 15, Fcb. 14, 1940 1030 1040 Totallcans and inve. tment!. .. ... ... . . . . . .. . . ..... 5532,227 $506,151 5537,126 Totallo.ns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . .. .. . .. . 270,566 246,644 275,186 Commercial, indu. trial and agriculturalloana. . . . . . 170,521 161,778 182,522 Open market paper .... . .. . ..... ....... . .... . . . . 1,812 921 2,040 2,802 Loans to brokers and dcalel'!J in securities . . . . . . . . . . 3,642 3,313 Other loan. for purch••ing or carrying securities . .. . 13,303 14,239 13,063 Rcal e.tate loan.. . . . .. .. . . .. . .. . .. .. .. .. .. . .. . . 22,234 10,844 21,921 246 Loans to b. nks .. ... ... ... .. , ... .... . .. .. .. .. .. . 235 273 51,602 All other loans. . . . .. .. .. .... .. . . .. .. .. . . . . . .... 49,819 46,276 153,167 United States Govcrnment direct obligations. .. . . . ... 152,901 15n,745 51,036 Oblig. ticns fully gu.r. ntced by United State.!! Govt . . 51,036 47,504 56,837 Other .ecurities . . . ...... .. .. .... .. .... .. ..... .. .. 57,724 52,168 141,473 Reserves with Feder.1 Reserve B.nk.... . . ... . .... .. 140,532 111,054 294,248 Bal.nces with domestie banla!.. ... ... . . . . . ... .. .. .. 301,021 248,858 474,822 Dcm.nd dcposits- .djusted·. . . . . . . . . .. • . .. ..•. . • . 483,687 438,788 135,788 Time deposIts . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. .. . .. . .. . •.. .. .. . 136,503 136,469 31,016 United States Government dcposits . .. ... ........ . .. 31,117 34,385 Interbank dcposits . .... .. .. .. . . .. . .. . .. . . .. .. .. . .. 272,484 208,036 28~~!~ Borrowings from Feder.l Reserve Bank. .. . .. .. . .. . . None None 'Includes all demand deposits other tban interbank and United States Governmcnt, less cash items reported as on hand or in the proees! of collection. GROSS DEMAND AND TIME DEPOSITS OF MEMBER DANKS (Average of daily figures- in tboueands of dollars) Reserve city banla! Country banla! Combined total February, Febru. ry, October, Novcmber, December, Janu.ry, Fcbruary, Gross demand 1038 ........ . . Sl,113,O I9 1930 . ....... . . 1,103,160 1039 .. .. ...... 1,305,705 1030 .... .... .. 1,340,118 1030 .... ... ... 1,344,386 1040 .....•. . . . 1,340,235 1040 .... .... .. 1,355,474 Time $216,344 225,328 231,363 232,340 234,145 233,470 234,306 Gross demand $606,222 674,977 760,455 777,045 777,031 775,643 786,130 Time $110,587 124,075 127,567 128,081 130,200 120,435 12D,055 GroS! demand $507,697 518,183 545,250 563,073 566,455 564,502 570,344 DEBITS TO INDIVIDUAL ACCOUNTS (In thousands of dollars) Febru.ry Fcbru.ry Pctg. change January 1040 1039 ovcr year 1040 Abilene .. .... .. .. .. ..... $ 8,068 S 7,320 +10 . 2 S 0,050 Austin............ ...... 31,392 31,677 -.0 36,684 Be.umont . .. ... .. ..... .. 23,242 22,565 + 3 .0 25,262 Corsicana.... .. ... ...... 3,357 3,210 + 4. 6 3,546 D. llas.. .. ...... .. .... .. 246,780 215,529 +14 .5 277,437 EI Paso. .. .. .. .. .. .. .... 29,231 28,681 + 1.0 31,518 71,651 67,544 + 0.1 80,184 Fort Worth ............. . Galveston.... ....... .... 30,075 22,876 +31.5 28,396 Hou.ton........ . .. ...... 227,060 109,348 +13.0 257,517 9,175 8,060 +13 .8 0,773 Port Arthur ....... ...... Roswell .. ...... . .. .. .... 3,053 3,301 +16.6 4,255 San Antonio......... .. .. 66,023 60,474 + 0.2 70,445 Shreveport .. .. .. . . . . . .. . 42,064 30,285 + 0.4 47,817 Tex.rkana· . ....... .. .... 6,813 6,245 + 0.1 7,272 Tucson ......... ... ...... 11,368 11,386 .2 12,353 ~~~~ :::: : :::::: :: :: : ::: Wicbita Fall. . . . . . . . . . . . . tU~i 16,420 &~~ 13,108 t:U +24.4 :~:~~~ 16,057 Time $ 96,757 100,353 103,706 104,259 103,846 104,035 105,251 Pctg. change over month - 10.0 - 14 .4 - 8.0 - 5.3 - 11 . 1 - 7.3 - 19.7 + 5.0 -11 . 8 - 6.1 - 7. 1 - 6.3 - 10.1 - 6.3 - 8 .0 +U + 2.3 Total.... . .. .... $853,086 $763,304 +11.8 S052,728 - 10.5 'Includes the figures of two banla! in Texarkana, Arkansas, localed in the Eighth District. SAVINGS DEPOSITS February 20, 1940 Number of rccorting anla! 3 Beaumont .. . . . .•. .. . . .. . Dallas .. .. . ... .. . .. .. ... El Paso ....... ..... ..... Fort Wortb .............. Galveston .. ..... . .. . . ... Hou. ton .... .. . ... .. ..... Port Arthur . .. .... ...... S. n Antonio . .. .. .. ... . .. Sbreveport ... . ..... . . ... Waco ....... .. . ...... .. . Wichita Falls . ..... ... .. . All otber ......... .. .. .. . 10 2 5 Total ..... . ... l15 8 2 3 4 3 3 3 69 Number of savings depositors 0,955 80,565 17,085 35,057 18,950 77,310 5,815 22,916 25,003 8,316 7,278 60,021 -380.070 -- Percentage ch.nge in savings deposit. from Amount of: Fcb.28, J.n.31, aavinWl depOSIts 1040 1039 $ 3,051,270 + .6 + .6 26,335,635 - 2.6 - .3 8,306,700 .2 +2.1 13,106,337 -4 .8 - .7 12,220,646 +1.6 .4 31,100,435 +5.0 + .4 3,142,551 +8 . 1 +1.2 -5 . 6 - .1 17,806,151 12,040,806 +4 . 6 + .1 - 1.2 4,644,739 - .3 -1.0 3,700,798 -3.8 30,364,264 +2.7 + .1 + $106,810,341 --+ .5 0.0 MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 4 United States Bureau of Mines. Daily average production in the United States during the first half of March was at an all-time peak, exceeding the estimated demand by about 10 per cent. Stocks of crude oil in the Eleventh District and the United States rose 2 per cent in February and trade reports indicate that a further gain has occurred since the first of March. Inventories of crude oil have increased substantially since last October, but they are still much smaller than a year ago. Refinery operations in the United States during February, as measured by crude oil runs to stills, continued at about the January rate and exceeded those of a year ago by about 11 per cent. Production of gasoline was substantially in excess of consumption, with the result that stocks of motor fuel increased sharply further to a newall-time high on March 2. On that date, they were 15 per cent greater than the heavy supply at that time last year. Inventories of heating oil were reduced further in February, but stocks of fuel oil have shown little change since the beginning of 194,0. Drilling activity during February in both the Eleventh District and the United States was at a much lower rate than in January. In comparison with a year ago, operations in this district showed a noticeable curtailment, but for the United States they were only moderately smaller. Domestic consumption of cotton was maintained at a high rate during February notwithstanding a decline of 9 per cent from the volume consumed in the preceding month. The 663,000 bales processed in February was only slightly lower than the all-time high for that month recorded in February, 1937, and was 18 per cent greater than the amount utilized in the corresponding month last year. Mill sales of cotton goods continued below output during February, but there was some improvement in buying during the first half of March. Prices of cotton goods declined further and mill margins, which have shown a downward trend in recent months, receded to a level 23 per cent below the 1939 peak recorded last October. Stocks of raw cotton in consuming establishments were reduced further by 4 per cent during February and the supply in public storage and compresses declined 8 per cent. The movement of American cotton into export channels during February was 27 per cent smaller than in January, but it was sharply higher than the average shipments for VALUE OF CONSTRUCTION CONTRACTS AWARDED (In thousands of dollars) February February January January 1 to February 20 1940 1930 1040 1040 1030 $ 31,047 $ 33,243 Eleventh Distriet-tota!. . . $ 16,603 $ 15,022 $ 15,344 10,081 11,304 Residential . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,615 5,167 4,366 20,066 21,840 All other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0,088 9,855 10,078 396,765 471,870 United Stateso-toto!.. . .• 200,574 220,107 106,101 152,258 150,183 Residential. ........... 74,858 70,020 77,400 244,507 312,687 All other . . . ... ... ..... 125,716 141,177 118,701 °37 states east of the Rocky Mountains. SOURCE: F. W. Dodge Corporation. BmLDING PERMITS Percentage change Percentage valuatien from Jan. Ito Feb. 20,1940 ehan&e , valuation v v Valuation Feb.,19aO Jan.,1040 No. Valuation from 1039 $ 26,160 +118.2 -50.7 37 $ 91,005 1.1 04 137,701 + 10 .3 + 3.8 270,538 5.9 750,220 + 7.3 +56.2 540 1,233,407 - 20 .0 128,488 + 25.2 +63.3 172 207,188 + 6.5 2,717,752 1,405,042 +507.3 + 7. 2 384 +130.3 1,129,082 - 11.2 +20.0 2,002,360 056 - 27.1 173,722 + 23.4 +28 .0 160 300,480 - 18.0 494,902 - 56 .6 +74 .8 375 778,015 - 47.1 248 488,670 153,080 + 35.9 -54.4 + 97.6 5,168,175 1,502,470 -17.2 -50.0 883 + 34.1 170 152,793 87,585 + 85.6 +34.1 - 17 .6 860,453 0. 2 432,371 + 31.4 -1.1 957 246 587,201 270,736 - 64.3 - 0.0 - 47.0 234,356 81,413 - 16.3 -46.8 116 - 41.3 62 131,617 42,987 - 20.6 -51.5 + 10.2 February, 1940 Abilene .... ... . Amarillo . ...... Austin ......... Beaumont ...... COr£us Christi. . Da as· ........ EI Paso ........ Fort Worth ..... Galveston ...... Houston ....... . Port Arthur . ..• San Antonio .... Shreveport ....• Waco .......... Wiohita Falls ... No. 18 47 268 07 102 525 102 220 146 432 109 621 110 45 34 ------ - 1.6 -18.0 Total. ..... 2,866 $6,826,808 .Inoludes IDghland Park and University Park. -- - - - - - -3.2 - 6,368 $16,242,239 + that month and nearly three times the small movement in February last year. Cumu1ative exports of cotton during the first seven months of the current season amounted to 4,917,000 bales, whi~h was twice the volume shipped in the comparable period of the previous season and about equal to the 1929-1938 average for that period. Reports indicate that cotton mill activity in most foreign countries continues at a high rate. In contrast with a moderate increase in operations at all mills in the United States, the rate of activity at cottonseed crushing establishments in Texas during the first seven months of the 1939-1940 season was somewhat lower than that in the corresponding period of the preceding season. Although the demand for all products except linters has been smaller this season, the reduction in physical output of mills is accounted for chiefly by a smaller supply of cottonseed, the estimated tonnage from the 1939 cotton crop being 8 per cent less than that a year earlier. Mill stocks of cottonseed and cottonseed products at the close of February were sharply lower than a year earlier. During the first half of the current season, domestic exports of crude and refined cottonseed oil and linters showed a marked increase over the respective totals for the comparable period of the preceding season. CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION (Barrels) February, 1040 Inorease or deorease in daily average production from __ Total Dailyavg. production production Jan., 1940 Feb., 1030 North Texas ............ . ... . 5,075,700 175,024 +13,455 +30,205 7,680,550 West Toxas ......... . ...... .. - 3,085 264,847 +22,749 East Toxas ...... .. . . . . ..... . 14,349,560 404,812 +20,099 +17,267 6,376,200 South Toxas ....... . ........ . 210,809 -31,520 +11,725 6,715,100 + 2,832 Texas Coastal ............... . 231,555 +12,823 Total Texas ... . .... . New Mexico .... . . .. ........ . North I,ouisiana .... . .... . ... . 40,197,100 3,215,150 1,980,950 1,386,107 110,867 68,610 +51,584 + 8,002 - 2,208 - +46,026 + 6,667 31 - Total District ... . . .. . 45,402,200 1,565,608 +58,338 +61,602 SOURCE: 'The Oil Weekly, Houston, Texas. STATISTICS ON COTTONSEED AND COTTONSEED PRODUCTS ___- - - Texa. ------v--United States----Augu.t I to February 20 August 1 to Fobruary 29 This season Last season This season Last season Cottonseed reeoived at mills 3,008,290 884,718 (tons) ........... .. ....... . 967,164 3,886,211 3,451,643 865,808 Cottonseed orushed (tons) .... . 059,800 3,485,047 Cottonseed on hand Fob. 20 789,367 73,018 (tons) ..... .. ............. . 180,388 521,700 Produotion of products: Crude oil (pounds) ..... ... . 250,461,341 281,383,921 1,005,202,827 1,072,021,616 412,504 1,552,726 Cako and meal (tons) . ..... . 448,260 1,567,420 891,980 223,791 Hulls (tOllS) .............. . 255,764 881,870 850,389 200,282 Linters (running bales) ..... . 210,804 885,440 Stocks on haod February 20: 121,278,01 3 Crude oil (pounds) ...... . . . 25,102,170 42,815,516 79,652,434 244,470 61,369 Cako and meal (tons) ...... . 62,789 200,178 140,011 43,884 Hulls (tons) ... .. ......... . 67,878 105,026 564,930 Lintors (running bales) ..... . 96,820 152,012 822,562 SOURCE: Bureau of CODSUS. CONSUMPTION, STOCKS AND EXPORTS OF COTTON (Bales) February February January AUj!Ust 1 to FebruarY 29 1040 1080 1040 ThiS season Last seaBOD Consumption at: 82,453 71,540 • Toxas mills. . . . . . . . . . . . 11,451 0,785 12,827 United States mills . ... . 662,650 4,704,504 3,960,420 562,580 730,148 U.S. stoeks-and of month: In consuming estab'mts. 1,701,510 1,559,417 1,776,031 Public 8tg. '" compresses. 12,157,074 14,134,827 13,206,819 Exports from U. S. to: 310,263 192,631 United Kingdom ...... . 33,805 370,609 1,525,928 304,082 130,230 Franco ....... ........ . 10,348 178,310 617,004 74,404 24,302 Italy ................. . 67,627 386,132 107,~} 226, 0 Germany ..... . ....... . None 25,872 None 18,002 102,307 Other Europe ......... . 80,070 567,314 100,017 017,832 504,3 01,000 Japan ................ . 65,063 101,019 675,180 247,266 All other countries ..... . 155,118 22,563 133,156 775,543 Total exports. . . . 746,680 203,022 1,026,628 4,016,511 -2,456,803 RECEIPTS, EXPORTfl. AND STOCKS OF COTTON AT THE PORTS OF HOUI)TON AND GALVESTON-(Bales) 9 February February January August 1 to FobruarY ~D 1040 1030 1040 This seasoo Last seas RE~epeoirPttss.............. . ..... .' ....... '. 335,010 52,570 331,642 3,308,441 1,8687'~~~ 416,980 208,332 503,351 2,815,101 1,67 , Stocks, end of month ... .. 1,495,844 1,397,323 1,586,136 •.. .•.. , A MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW APRIL 1, 1940 NATIONAL SUMMARY OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS (Compiled by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System) INDUSTRIAL PROOUCTION POIHTIIN TO'PJ..1JrC)!)( 140 110 LeI. -....,/ v ~Al / v b 11934 f--./ 100 v eo ~~ -1 .\ / V r 40 )\ \ / 60 I 20 eo 40 IV....,~ ~ 20 MljERALS 19315 I1D6 o 1937 1938 1939 1940 ~ndex of physical volume of production. adjusted nor seasonal variation. 1923-1925 average 100. Udl'able manufactures. nondurable manufactures. ~n minera ls expressed in terms of points in the otal index. By months. January. 1934. to February. 1940. = FRElGKT CAR UlADINGS POIHT11H TOTAl.. INOD I 00 eo lA,1t7TAl ~ V 'tv./ I<IOIlL --=~ IBM 19:10 ous ", ., 80 I' 80 ~ '" 00 -v"" r----' AU.D]! ~ ooAl 1938 rJ / '\ UI37 20 :--- rv 1938 f93EI a 1040 }~dex of total loadin gs of revenue freight. ad_ sted for seasonal variation. 1923-1925 average ~OO. Miscellaneous. coal. and a ll other expressed erms of points in the total index. By months. January. 1984. to February. 1940. i;:; WHOLESALE PRICES ... "or 110 '00 I- 100 .,..I ~ -'"\ 'v eo """"- -J' 60 '-1934 tt 19" 1936 1937 t938 1939 t940 ex compiled by the United States Bureau of 01' Statistics. 1926 100. By weeks. 1984 to week ending March 9. 1940. = MONEY RATES IN NEW YORK CITY ... <Un 4 ~'93~4~-~~3~~~'~9~~~'9-~~~~~3~8~-'93~9~-'9-40~ ~or ° Weeks ending January 6. 1984. to March 16. 1940. Industrial activity showed a further sharp decline in February and a less marked reduction in the first half of March. Wholesale commodity prices generally were steady, following some decline in January and early February. PRODUCTION In February the Board's seasonally adjusted index of industrial production was 109 per cent of the 1923·1925 average as compared with 119 in January and 128 in December. A funher decline at a slower rate is indicated for March on the basis of data now available. In August, 1939, the month prior to the outbreak of war, the index was 103. Steel production, which had risen sharply in the latter part of 1939 and then decreased considerably in January, showed a further marked reduction in February to 69 per cent of capacity. In the first half of March output was steady at a rate of about 65 per cent. Plate glass production declined further in February and output of lumber, which had dropped sharply in January, showed less than the usual seasonal rise. Automobile production in February was maintained at the high level prevailing in January. Dealers' stocks of new cars rose to high levels in this period, notwithstanding the fact that retail sales of cars were in large volume for this time of the year. In the first half of March output of automohiles showed less than the customary sharp increase. In some industries not included directly in the Board's production index, particularly the machinery, aircraft, and rayon industries, activity continued at high levels. Changes in output of non·durable goods were largely seasonal in February except at textile mills and sugar refineries. At cotton textile mills activity declined somewhat from the high levels prevailing since early last autumn. Activity at woolen mills, which had decreased considerably in December and January, declined further in February and output of silk products was reduced to an exceptionally low' level. Sugar refining showed less than th e sharp rise usual at this season. Mineral production declined in February, owing chiefly to the considerable reduction in output of anthracite. Bituminous coal production declined somewhat, following a rise in January, while output of crude petroleum increased to new high levels. Value of construction contract awards in February showed little change from the January total, reflecting a further decrease in contracts for public construction and a contraseasonal increase in private contracts, according to figures of the F. W. Dodge Corporation. The increase in private residential awards nearly equalled the decline that occurred in the previous month when severe storms curtailed building operations in many areas. DISTRIBUTION Retail distribution of general merchandise showed little change from January to Feb· ruary and remained somewhat below the high level of the latter part of last year, with due allowance for seasonal changes. Sales at variety stores and mail·order houses showed ahout the usual seasonal rise in February, while at department stores, where some increase is also usual at this time of year, sales remained at about the January level. Freight-car loadings declined considerably from January to Fehruary, reflecting for the most part a sharp reduction in coal shipments and some further decrease in loadings of miscellaneous freight. FOREIGN TRADE Exports of United States merchandise in February declined less than seasonally from the high levels reached in December and January. The principal decreases were in ship. ments of cotton, copper, and aircraft, which had been exceptionally large in previous months. Exports to Japan {ell sharply and th ere were declines also in shipments to the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Russia, while exports to Belgium and the Scandinavian countries increased _ There has been little change in the rate of gold inflow. The monetary gold stock in· creased by $246,000,000 in February and by $109,000,000 in the first two weeks of March. COMMODITY PRICES Prices of nonferrous metals advanced from the middle of February to the middle of March, while steel scrap and textile materials declined somewhat further. Most olher com· modities showed little change and in the week ending March 9 the general index of the BW'eau of Labor Statistics was at 78.3 per cenb of the 1926 average as compared with 78.5 a month earlier. GOVERNMENT SECURITY MARKET Following a relatively steady market during February, prices of long·term Treasury bonds increased sharply after the announcement by the Treasury early in March that i ts operations during that month would be limited to the issuance of a five-year note to refund a note maturing next June. BANK CREDIT Total loans and investments at reporting member hanks in 101 leading cities rose duro ing the six weeks ending March 13, largely as a result of increases in investments at New York City banks. Following a reduction during Jallual'y, commercial loans increased, mostly at banks in cities outside New York. Bank reserves and deposits continued to increase during the period.