Full text of January 1999 : Text File, USDL 99-42
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WIRE EMBARGO UNTIL
10:00 A.M. (EST) FRIDAY,
FEBRUARY 19, 1999
REAL EARNINGS IN JANUARY 1999
Real average weekly earnings decreased by 0.1 percent from December to
January after seasonal adjustment, according to preliminary data released today
by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. This
decline was due to a 0.3 percent decrease in average weekly hours and a 0.2
percent increase in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and
Clerical Workers (CPI-W). These were partially offset by a 0.5 percent
increase in average hourly earnings.
Data on average weekly earnings are collected from the payroll reports of
private nonfarm establishments. Earnings of both full-time and part-time
workers holding production or nonsupervisory jobs are included. Real average
weekly earnings are calculated by adjusting earnings in current dollars for
changes in the CPI-W.
Average weekly earnings rose by 3.1 percent, seasonally adjusted, between
January of 1998 and 1999. After adjustment for inflation, average weekly
earnings grew by 1.4 percent. Before adjustment for seasonal change and
deflation by the CPI-W, average weekly earnings were $445.40 in January 1999,
compared with $430.92 a year earlier.
_____________________________
Real Earnings for February 1999 will be released on Thursday, March 18,
1999.
******************************************************************************
* The seasonally adjusted constant dollar series presented in this release *
* have been revised to incorporate new seasonal adjustment factors *
* calculated for the CPI-W, reflecting experience through 1998. *
* This revision affects constant dollar series from January 1994 through *
* December 1998. *
* *
* Also, starting with this release, the estimates of percent change from *
* the same month a year ago are computed using seasonally adjusted data *
* and are presented in table B. Previously, the estimates of year-to-year *
* change used data that were not seasonally adjusted and were presented as *
* part of table A. Special techniques are applied to the hours and *
* earnings data in the seasonal adjustment process to mitigate the effect *
* of certain calendar-related fluctuations. Therefore, over-the-year *
* changes in hours and earnings are best measured using the seasonally *
* adjusted series. See the Explanatory Note of this release for additional *
* information. *
******************************************************************************
Table A. Composition of change in real earnings of production or
nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls
________________________________________________________________________
| | | | |
| Average | Average | Average | The | Real
| hourly | weekly | weekly | Consumer | average
Year | earnings | hours | earnings | Price | weekly
and | | | | Index1/ | earnings
month |___________|___________|___________|___________|___________
|
| Percent change from preceding month, seasonally adjusted
____________|___________________________________________________________
| | | | |
1998: | | | | |
Jan. | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.5
Feb. | .4 | -.3 | .1 | .0 | .1
Mar. | .3 | -.3 | (2) | .0 | (2)
Apr. | .6 | -.3 | .3 | .3 | (2)
May | .2 | .6 | .8 | .2 | .6
June | .2 | -.3 | -.1 | .1 | -.1
July | .2 | .0 | .2 | .2 | (2)
Aug. | .5 | .0 | .5 | .1 | .4
Sept. | .2 | -.6 | -.4 | .1 | -.5
Oct. | .2 | .6 | .8 | .2 | .6
Nov. | .3 | -.3 | (2) | .2 | -.2
Dec.p | .3 | .3 | .6 | .2 | .4
1999: | | | | |
Jan.p | .5 | -.3 | .2 | .2 | -.1
____________|___________|___________|___________|___________|___________
1/ The deflator for the constant-dollar series presented in this
release is the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical
Workers (CPI-W).
p = preliminary.
2 Less than 0.05 percent.
Table B. Percent change in earnings from the same month a year ago for
production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls,
seasonally adjusted
_________________________________________________________________________
| |
| Average hourly | Average weekly
| earnings | earnings
Year |_____________________________|_____________________________
and | | | |
month | Current | Constant | Current | Constant
| dollars | (1982) | dollars | (1982)
| | dollars1/ | | dollars1/
_____________|______________|______________|______________|______________
| | | |
1998: | | | |
Jan. | 3.9 | 2.5 | 4.8 | 3.3
Feb. | 4.0 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 3.1
Mar. | 4.0 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.6
Apr. | 4.4 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 2.7
May | 4.3 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 2.7
June | 4.2 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 3.1
July | 4.2 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 3.0
Aug. | 4.1 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 2.4
Sept. | 4.0 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.3
Oct. | 3.8 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 2.5
Nov. | 3.8 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 1.8
Dec.p | 3.8 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 2.0
1999: | | | |
Jan.p | 4.0 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 1.4
_____________|______________|______________|______________|______________
1/ The deflator for the constant-dollar series presented in this release
is the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers
(CPI-W).
p = preliminary.
Table A. Composition of change in real earnings of production or
nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls
________________________________________________________________________
| | | | |
| Average | Average | Average | The | Real
| hourly | weekly | weekly | Consumer | average
Year | earnings | hours | earnings | Price | weekly
and | | | | Index1/ | earnings
month |___________|___________|___________|___________|___________
|
| Percent change from preceding month, seasonally adjusted
____________|___________________________________________________________
| | | | |
1998: | | | | |
Jan. | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.5
Feb. | .4 | -.3 | .1 | .0 | .1
Mar. | .3 | -.3 | (2) | .0 | (2)
Apr. | .6 | -.3 | .3 | .3 | (2)
May | .2 | .6 | .8 | .2 | .6
June | .2 | -.3 | -.1 | .1 | -.1
July | .2 | .0 | .2 | .2 | (2)
Aug. | .5 | .0 | .5 | .1 | .4
Sept. | .2 | -.6 | -.4 | .1 | -.5
Oct. | .2 | .6 | .8 | .2 | .6
Nov. | .3 | -.3 | (2) | .2 | -.2
Dec.p | .3 | .3 | .6 | .2 | .4
1999: | | | | |
Jan.p | .5 | -.3 | .2 | .2 | -.1
____________|___________|___________|___________|___________|___________
1/ The deflator for the constant-dollar series presented in this
release is the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical
Workers (CPI-W).
p = preliminary.
2 Less than 0.05 percent.
Table B. Percent change in earnings from the same month a year ago for
production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls,
seasonally adjusted
_________________________________________________________________________
| |
| Average hourly | Average weekly
| earnings | earnings
Year |_____________________________|_____________________________
and | | | |
month | Current | Constant | Current | Constant
| dollars | (1982) | dollars | (1982)
| | dollars1/ | | dollars1/
_____________|______________|______________|______________|______________
| | | |
1998: | | | |
Jan. | 3.9 | 2.5 | 4.8 | 3.3
Feb. | 4.0 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 3.1
Mar. | 4.0 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.6
Apr. | 4.4 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 2.7
May | 4.3 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 2.7
June | 4.2 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 3.1
July | 4.2 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 3.0
Aug. | 4.1 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 2.4
Sept. | 4.0 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.3
Oct. | 3.8 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 2.5
Nov. | 3.8 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 1.8
Dec.p | 3.8 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 2.0
1999: | | | |
Jan.p | 4.0 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 1.4
_____________|______________|______________|______________|______________
1/ The deflator for the constant-dollar series presented in this release
is the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers
(CPI-W).
p = preliminary.
Table 1. Earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private
nonfarm payrolls in current and constant dollars1/ by industry, not
seasonally adjusted
____________________________________________________________________
|
| Average hourly earnings
|_________________________________________
| | | |
Industry | | | | Percent
| Jan. | Dec. | Jan. | change
| 1998 | 1998p| 1999p| Jan. 1998 -
| | | | Jan. 1999
__________________________|________|________|________|______________
| | | |
Total private:2/ | | | |
Current dollars..........| $12.60 | $12.99 | $13.10 | 4.0
Constant (1982) dollars..| 7.71 | 7.83 | 7.88 | 2.2
| | | |
Goods-producing: | | | |
Current dollars..........| 14.10 | 14.55 | 14.46 | 2.6
Constant (1982) dollars..| 8.62 | 8.78 | 8.70 | .9
| | | |
Mining: | | | |
Current dollars..........| 16.65 | 17.39 | 17.35 | 4.2
Constant (1982) dollars..| 10.18 | 10.49 | 10.44 | 2.6
| | | |
Construction: | | | |
Current dollars..........| 16.25 | 16.85 | 16.73 | 3.0
Constant (1982) dollars..| 9.94 | 10.16 | 10.07 | 1.3
| | | |
Manufacturing: | | | |
Current dollars..........| 13.40 | 13.68 | 13.67 | 2.0
Constant (1982) dollars..| 8.20 | 8.25 | 8.23 | .4
| | | |
Service-producing: | | | |
Current dollars..........| 12.10 | 12.49 | 12.67 | 4.7
Constant (1982) dollars..| 7.40 | 7.53 | 7.62 | 3.0
| | | |
Transportation and public | | | |
utilities: | | | |
Current dollars..........| 15.27 | 15.53 | 15.59 | 2.1
Constant (1982) dollars..| 9.34 | 9.37 | 9.38 | .4
| | | |
Wholesale trade: | | | |
Current dollars..........| 13.77 | 14.27 | 14.36 | 4.3
Constant (1982) dollars..| 8.42 | 8.61 | 8.64 | 2.6
| | | |
Retail trade: | | | |
Current dollars..........| 8.63 | 8.90 | 9.03 | 4.6
Constant (1982) dollars..| 5.28 | 5.37 | 5.43 | 2.8
| | | |
Finance, insurance, | | | |
and real estate: | | | |
Current dollars..........| 13.70 | 14.40 | 14.46 | 5.5
Constant (1982) dollars..| 8.38 | 8.69 | 8.70 | 3.8
| | | |
Services: | | | |
Current dollars..........| 12.66 | 13.18 | 13.30 | 5.1
Constant (1982) dollars..| 7.74 | 7.95 | 8.00 | 3.4
__________________________|________|________|________|______________
See footnotes at end of table.
Table 1. Earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private
nonfarm payrolls in current and constant dollars1/ by industry, not
seasonally adjusted - Continued
____________________________________________________________________
|
| Average weekly earnings
|_________________________________________
| | | |
Industry | | | | Percent
| Jan. | Dec. | Jan. | change
| 1998 | 1998p| 1999p| Jan. 1998 -
| | | | Jan. 1999
__________________________|________|________|________|______________
| | | |
Total private:2/ | | | |
Current dollars..........|$430.92 |$450.75 |$445.40 | 3.4
Constant (1982) dollars..| 263.56 | 271.86 | 267.99 | 1.7
| | | |
Goods-producing: | | | |
Current dollars..........| 576.69 | 606.74 | 584.18 | 1.3
Constant (1982) dollars..| 352.72 | 365.95 | 351.49 | -.3
| | | |
Mining: | | | |
Current dollars..........| 749.25 | 758.20 | 737.38 | -1.6
Constant (1982) dollars..| 458.26 | 457.30 | 443.67 | -3.2
| | | |
Construction: | | | |
Current dollars..........| 607.75 | 657.15 | 630.72 | 3.8
Constant (1982) dollars..| 371.71 | 396.35 | 379.49 | 2.1
| | | |
Manufacturing: | | | |
Current dollars..........| 561.46 | 582.77 | 564.57 | .6
Constant (1982) dollars..| 343.40 | 351.49 | 339.69 | -1.1
| | | |
Service-producing: | | | |
Current dollars..........| 393.25 | 410.92 | 409.24 | 4.1
Constant (1982) dollars..| 240.52 | 247.84 | 246.23 | 2.4
| | | |
Transportation and public | | | |
utilities: | | | |
Current dollars..........| 600.11 | 607.22 | 604.89 | .8
Constant (1982) dollars..| 367.04 | 366.24 | 363.95 | -.8
| | | |
Wholesale trade: | | | |
Current dollars..........| 524.64 | 547.97 | 545.68 | 4.0
Constant (1982) dollars..| 320.88 | 330.50 | 328.33 | 2.3
| | | |
Retail trade: | | | |
Current dollars..........| 242.50 | 259.88 | 252.84 | 4.3
Constant (1982) dollars..| 148.32 | 156.74 | 152.13 | 2.6
| | | |
Finance, insurance, | | | |
and real estate: | | | |
Current dollars..........| 494.57 | 519.84 | 520.56 | 5.3
Constant (1982) dollars..| 302.49 | 313.53 | 313.21 | 3.5
| | | |
Services: | | | |
Current dollars..........| 410.18 | 429.67 | 429.59 | 4.7
Constant (1982) dollars..| 250.87 | 259.15 | 258.48 | 3.0
__________________________|________|________|________|______________
1/ The deflator for the constant-dollar series presented in this
release is the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and
Clerical Workers (CPI-W).
2/ Data relate to production and related workers in mining and
manufacturing; construction workers in construction; and
nonsupervisory workers in transportation and public utilities,
trade, finance, insurance, and real estate, and services. Included
in this group are approximately four-fifths of all jobs on private
industry payrolls.
p = preliminary.
Table 2. Earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private
nonfarm payrolls1/, seasonally adjusted
_________________________________________________________________________
| |
| |
| Average hourly | Average weekly
| earnings | earnings
| |
Year |_____________________________|_____________________________
and | | | |
month | | | |
| Current | Constant | Current | Constant
| dollars | (1982) | dollars | (1982)
| | dollars2/ | | dollars2/
| | | |
_____________|______________|______________|______________|______________
| | | |
1998: | | | |
Jan. | $12.54 | $7.66 | $436.39 | $266.42
Feb. | 12.59 | 7.69 | 436.87 | 266.71
Mar. | 12.63 | 7.71 | 437.00 | 266.79
Apr. | 12.70 | 7.73 | 438.15 | 266.84
May | 12.73 | 7.74 | 441.73 | 268.53
June | 12.76 | 7.75 | 441.50 | 268.23
July | 12.79 | 7.76 | 442.53 | 268.36
Aug. | 12.85 | 7.78 | 444.61 | 269.30
Sept. | 12.87 | 7.79 | 442.73 | 268.00
Oct. | 12.90 | 7.79 | 446.34 | 269.69
Nov. | 12.94 | 7.80 | 446.43 | 269.26
Dec. p | 12.98 | 7.81 | 449.11 | 270.39
1999: | | | |
Jan. p | 13.04 | 7.83 | 449.88 | 270.20
_____________|______________|______________|______________|______________
1/ See footnote 2, table 1.
2/ The deflator for the constant-dollar series presented in this release
is the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers
(CPI-W).
p = preliminary.
Table 3. Revised seasonally adjusted average hourly and weekly earnings of
production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls1/ in
constant (1982) dollars
___________________________________________________________________________
|
| Average hourly earnings
|___________________________________________________________
Year | | | | | |
| | | | | |
| Jan. | Feb. | Mar. | Apr. | May | June
_______________|_________|_________|_________|_________|_________|_________
| | | | | |
1994...........| $7.41 | $7.42 | $7.40 | $7.41 | $7.42 | $7.40
1995...........| 7.38 | 7.39 | 7.38 | 7.37 | 7.37 | 7.38
1996...........| 7.42 | 7.40 | 7.40 | 7.41 | 7.40 | 7.43
1997...........| 7.47 | 7.47 | 7.49 | 7.51 | 7.53 | 7.54
1998...........| 7.66 | 7.69 | 7.71 | 7.73 | 7.74 | 7.75
|___________________________________________________________
| | | | | |
| | | | | |
| July | Aug. | Sept. | Oct. | Nov. | Dec.
|_________|_________|_________|_________|_________|_________
| | | | | |
1994...........| 7.38 | 7.37 | 7.37 | 7.39 | 7.39 | 7.39
1995...........| 7.40 | 7.41 | 7.41 | 7.41 | 7.42 | 7.42
1996...........| 7.44 | 7.45 | 7.44 | 7.44 | 7.45 | 7.46
1997...........| 7.55 | 7.58 | 7.58 | 7.60 | 7.62 | 7.64
1998...........| 7.76 | 7.78 | 7.79 | 7.79 | 7.80 | p7.81
_______________|_________|_________|_________|_________|_________|_________
See footnotes at end of table.
Table 3. Revised seasonally adjusted average hourly and weekly earnings of
production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls1/ in
constant (1982) dollars--Continued
___________________________________________________________________________
|
| Average weekly earnings
|___________________________________________________________
| | | | | |
| | | | | |
| Jan. | Feb. | Mar. | Apr. | May | June
_______________|_________|_________|_________|_________|_________|_________
| | | | | |
1994...........| $256.23 | $255.11 | $256.87 | $256.25 | $257.35 | $256.78
1995...........| 256.10 | 254.87 | 254.65 | 254.27 | 252.75 | 253.88
1996...........| 251.66 | 255.46 | 254.40 | 254.00 | 254.53 | 257.16
1997...........| 257.85 | 258.59 | 260.04 | 259.77 | 261.38 | 260.18
1998...........| 266.42 | 266.71 | 266.79 | 266.84 | 268.53 | 268.23
|___________________________________________________________
| | | | | |
| | | | | |
| July | Aug. | Sept. | Oct. | Nov. | Dec.
|_________|_________|_________|_________|_________|_________
| | | | | |
1994...........| 256.22 | 254.92 | 255.10 | 256.59 | 255.63 | 256.55
1995...........| 254.61 | 254.78 | 254.95 | 254.96 | 255.40 | 254.67
1996...........| 255.84 | 256.91 | 257.56 | 256.81 | 257.09 | 258.21
1997...........| 260.50 | 263.02 | 262.09 | 263.05 | 264.49 | 264.97
1998...........| 268.36 | 269.30 | 268.00 | 269.69 | 269.05 | p270.39
_______________|_________|_________|_________|_________|_________|_________
1/ Data relate to production and related workers in mining and
manufacturing; construction workers in construction; and nonsupervisory
workers in transportation and public utilities; wholesale and retail trade;
finance, insurance, and real estate; and services.
NOTE: These data have been revised to reflect the March 1997 benchmark
and updated seasonal adjustment factors.
p = preliminary.
Explanatory Note
The earnings series presented in this release are derived from the Bureau
of Labor Statistics' Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey, a monthly
establishment survey of employment, payroll, and hours. The deflator used for
constant-dollar earnings series presented in this release is derived from the
Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W).
For the purpose of the Real Earnings series, the CPI-W is converted from
the base of 1982-84 that is used in the official, published series to a base of
1982. Thus, the constant dollar average hourly and weekly earnings series are
in 1982 dollars. To avoid confusion for users, the CPI data presented in Table
A are the official, published CPI-W series. These data may differ slightly from
those used in the real earnings calculations.
Seasonally adjusted data are used for estimates of percent change from the
same month a year ago for current and constant average hourly and weekly
earnings that are presented in Table B of this release. Special techniques are
applied to the CES hours and earnings data in the seasonal adjustment process to
mitigate the effect of certain calendar-related fluctuations. Thus, over-the-
year changes of these hours and earnings are best measured using seasonally
adjusted series. A discussion of the calendar-related fluctuations in the hours
and earnings data and the special techniques to remove them is available in the
June 1998 issue of Employment and Earnings or on the Internet
(http://stats.bls.gov/ceshome.htm).
Earnings series from the monthly establishment series are estimated
arithmetic averages (means) of the hourly and weekly earnings of all production
or nonsupervisory jobs in the private nonfarm sector of the economy. Average
hourly earnings estimates are derived by dividing the estimated industry
payroll--for all production or nonsupervisory jobs--by the corresponding paid
hours. Average weekly hours estimates are similarly derived by dividing
estimated aggregate hours by the corresponding number of production or
nonsupervisory jobs. Average weekly earnings estimates are derived by
multiplying the average hourly earnings and the average weekly hours estimates.
This is equivalent to dividing the estimated payroll by the number of production
or nonsupervisory jobs. The weekly and hourly earnings estimates for aggregate
industries, such as the major industry division and the total private sector
averages printed in this release, are derived by summing the corresponding
payroll, hours, and employment estimates of the component industries. As a
result, each industry receives a "weight" in the published averages that
corresponds to its current level of activity (employment or total hours). This
further implies that fluctuations and varying trends in employment in high-wage
versus low-wage industries as well as wage rate changes influence the earnings
averages.
There are several characteristics of the series presented in this
release that limit their suitability for some types of economic
analyses.
(1) The denominator for the weekly earnings series is the number of
private nonfarm production or nonsupervisory worker jobs. This number
includes full-time and part-time jobs as well as the jobs held by
multiple jobholders in the private nonfarm sector. These factors tend
to result in weekly earnings averages significantly lower than the
corresponding numbers for full-time jobs. (2) Annual earnings averages
can differ significantly from the result obtained by multiplying average weekly
earnings times 52 weeks. The difference may be due to factors such as turnovers
and layoffs. (3) The series are the average earnings of all production or
nonsupervisory jobs, not the earnings average of "typical" jobs or jobs held by
"typical" workers. Specifically, there are no adjustments for occupational,
age, or schooling variations or for household type or location. Many studies
have established the significance of these factors and that their impact varies
over time.
Seasonally adjusted data (table 2) are preferred by some users for
analyzing general earnings trends in the economy since they eliminate the effect
of changes that normally occur at the same time and in about the same magnitude
each year and, therefore, reveal the underlying trends and cyclical movements.
Changes in average earnings may be due to seasonal changes in the proportion of
workers in high-wage and low-wage industries or occupations or to seasonal
changes in the amount of overtime work, and so on.
For more information, see Thomas Gavett, "Measures of Change in Real Wages
and Earnings," Monthly Labor Review, February 1972.
Information in this release will be made available to sensory impaired
individuals upon request. Voice phone: 202-606-STAT; TDD phone: 202-606-
5897; TDD Message Referral Phone Number: 1-800-326-2577.