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The Quarterly Debt Monitor Appendix
Lowell R. Ricketts
Center for Household Financial Stability
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Introduction
This appendix for the fourth issue of The Quarterly Debt Monitor updates all of the standard tables and
figures contained within the initial issue of the report. The summary report presents a subset of the following
figures. In contrast, the appendix provides the same figures each quarter updated with the latest data. This
allows readers to follow developments for figures of interest. The label numbers of the figures in the summary
report will not necessarily match those of the same figures in the appendix.
The appendix is structured as follows:
• Introduction
– Year-over-Year Percent Change
• Consumer Debt: Levels and Growth
– Total Per Capita Debt in the U.S. and Largest District MSAs
– Per Capita Consumer Debt, by Type
– Average Consumer Debt Balance, by Type
– Contributions to Total Per Capita Debt Growth, by Type
– Developments in Consumer Debt, a Demographic Perspective
• Consumer Debt Delinquency
– Serious Delinquency Rates, by Type
– Serious Delinquency Rates, a Demographic Perspective
• Loan Originations, by Equifax Risk Score
– Real Auto Loan Originations
– Real Mortgage Loan Originations
• Methodology
• Definitions
The following table offers a quick summary of important indicators and trends in debt levels and delinquency
rates within the past year across geographic areas. The figures are rounded.

1

Year-over-Year Percent Change from 2015:Q4 to 2016:Q4

2016:Q4

United States Little Rock MSA Louisville MSA Memphis MSA St. Louis MSA

% Change in Per Capita Consumer Debt
Total

0.4

1.5

−1.5

−0.8

0

Mortgage

−0.9

−0.5

−3.5

−4.3

−1.8

HELOC

−5

−11.5

−2.8

−6.8

−6.7

Auto

5.1

4

5.4

5.5

4.2

Credit Card

2.9

3.8

0.9

3.4

1.4

Student

5.3

6.7

4.8

6.6

5.6

Mortgage

−0.5

−0.6

−0.1

−0.7

−0.2

HELOC

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

−0.2

Auto

0.4

0.6

0.5

1.2

0.1

Credit Card

−0.2

0

−0.4

−0.1

−0.1

Student

−0.2

0.1

0.1

−0.1

0.4

Change in Serious Delinquency Rate

SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of NY/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel.
NOTE: The change in serious delinquency rates is given as the difference in percentage points.

Consumer Debt: Levels and Growth
Total Per Capita Debt in the U.S. and Largest District MSAs
Figure 1: Total Real Per Capita Consumer Debt
150

Index, 2003:Q1 = 100

140

130

120

110

100
2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

Year
United States

Little Rock MSA

Louisville MSA

Memphis MSA

SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of NY/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel.
NOTE: “Real” data are inflation-adjusted. The gray bar indicates recession.
2

St. Louis MSA

Per Capita Consumer Debt, by Debt Type
Figure 2A: Total Real Per Capita Mortgage Debt

Index, 2003:Q1 = 100

150

130

110

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

Year
United States

Little Rock MSA

Louisville MSA

Memphis MSA

St. Louis MSA

SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of NY/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel.

Figure 2B: Total Real Per Capita Auto Debt

Index, 2003:Q1 = 100

120

110

100

90

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

Year
United States

Little Rock MSA

Louisville MSA

Memphis MSA

SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of NY/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel.

3

St. Louis MSA

Index, 2003:Q1 = 100

Figure 2C: Total Real Per Capita Credit Card Debt

100

80

60

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

Year
United States

Little Rock MSA

Louisville MSA

Memphis MSA

St. Louis MSA

SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of NY/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel.

Figure 2D: Total Real Per Capita Student Debt

Index, 2003:Q1 = 100

500

400

300

200

100
2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

Year
United States

Little Rock MSA

Louisville MSA

Memphis MSA

SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of NY/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel.

4

St. Louis MSA

Figure 2E: Total Real Per Capita HELOC Debt

Index, 2003:Q1 = 100

250

200

150

100
2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

Year
United States

Little Rock MSA

Louisville MSA

Memphis MSA

St. Louis MSA

SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of NY/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel.

Average Consumer Debt Balance, by Type
Figure 3: Average Debt Balance, By Type, 2016:Q4
125
120

Thousands $

88

90

94

93

80

39

40

33
24

25

30
25
14

16

12

15

31

29

32

31

12
5

5

5

5

5

0
Mortgage

HELOC

Auto

Credit Card

Student

Debt Type
United States

Little Rock MSA

Louisville MSA

Memphis MSA

St. Louis MSA

SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of NY/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel.
NOTE: All average balances are conditional on carrying that type of debt and are unadjusted for inflation.
5

Contributions to Total Per Capita Debt Growth, by Type
Figure 4: Contribution to Year−over−Year Change in Total Per Capita Debt
1.5

0.4

0.4

0.5

0.6
0.4

0.5

0.4
0.2 0.2

0

0

Percent

1

1

1

0.2
0.1

0.7

0.6

0.1

0.1

0.1
−0.1

−0.1
−0.2−0.2 −0.2−0.2

−0.3

0.2

−0.6
−0.8
−1

−1.2
−1.5
−2

−2.3
−2.6
Total

Mortgage

Auto

HELOC

Credit Card

Student

Other

Debt Type
United States

Little Rock MSA

Louisville MSA

Memphis MSA

St. Louis MSA

SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of NY/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel.
NOTES: Growth in each type of debt is relative to total debt. All data labels have been rounded.

6

0.2

Developments in Consumer Debt, a Demographic Perspective
Figure 5A: Year−over−Year Change in Total Debt
3.4
3

2.3

Percent

2

1.5
1.2
1

0.8

0.7

0.6
0.4 0.5

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.6

0.5

0.5 0.4 0.4

1.2

1

0.3

0.2

0.4

0.5

0.2 0.2

0.3

0

0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2

0

−0.3
−0.5−0.6
<31

31−40

41−55

56−65

66−75

75+

All Ages

Age Group
United States

Little Rock MSA

Louisville MSA

Memphis MSA

St. Louis MSA

SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of NY/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel.
NOTE: Figures 5A to 5F are weighted with respect to the total by debt type.

Figure 5B: Year−over−Year Change in Mortgage Debt
1.3
1.1
1

1

0.6
0.3

0.3

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.4

0.7
0.3 0.4

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.1 0.1

0

Percent

−0.1

−0.1

−0.1
−0.3

−0.1

−0.4

−0.5

−0.7
−1

−1
−1.2

−1.3
−1.6
−2

−2

−2.6
<31

31−40

41−55

56−65

66−75

75+

All Ages

Age Group
United States

Little Rock MSA

Louisville MSA

Memphis MSA

SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of NY/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel.

7

St. Louis MSA

Figure 5C: Year−over−Year Change in Auto Debt
8.2
8

7.4
7
6

6

Percent

5.4

4

2.1
2

1.7 1.7

1.7 1.7 1.6
1.4 1.3

1.1

1.8

2

2
1.5

0.8

0.7

1.5
1.2

1

0.9 0.9

1.2 1.2

1
0.7

0.5

0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2

0
<31

31−40

41−55

56−65

66−75

75+

All Ages

Age Group
United States

Little Rock MSA

Louisville MSA

Memphis MSA

St. Louis MSA

SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of NY/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel.

Figure 5D: Year−over−Year Change in Credit Card Debt
5.7
5.3
4.8

4

Percent

3.6

2.6

2

1.7

1.6
1.3
0.8

0.6 0.6

0.7

1.4 1.3

1.3

1.3

0.9 0.9

0.7 0.7
0.2

0.4

0.2

0.8 0.8
0.5

0.5

0.4

0

1.1

0.3

0.4 0.3 0.4
0.1

−0.1
<31

31−40

41−55

56−65

66−75

75+

All Ages

Age Group
United States

Little Rock MSA

Louisville MSA

Memphis MSA

SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of NY/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel.

8

St. Louis MSA

Figure 5E: Year−over−Year Change in Student Debt
8.7

8.6
7.6

7.5

7.2

Percent

6.8

5.0

3.6
3.1
2.5

2.5

2.9
2.6

2.3

3.4
2.9

2.8

2
1.4 1.2

1.4
0.7

1

0.9

0.7

0.5

0.3

0.2

0.6
0.3

0.3 0.5 0.3

0.0
<31

31−40

41−55

56−65

66−75

0.1 0

0

0.2 0.1

75+

All Ages

Age Group
United States

Little Rock MSA

Louisville MSA

Memphis MSA

St. Louis MSA

SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of NY/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel.

Figure 5F: Year−over−Year Change in HELOC Debt
3.1
2
0.7
0

0.1 0.2 0
0 −0.2

1.1 1.3

0.9

0.1
−0.2
−0.8

−0.3

−0.3−0.5−0.1
−0.6
−1.2

−0.4
−1.1

Percent

−1.6

−0.2

−1.9
−2.7

−3.2
−3.8

−3.2

−3.3

−4.6

−5

−5.1
−5.6
−6.9

−9.8

−10
<31

31−40

41−55

56−65

66−75

75+

All Ages

Age Group
United States

Little Rock MSA

Louisville MSA

Memphis MSA

SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of NY/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel.

9

St. Louis MSA

Consumer Debt Delinquency
Serious Delinquency Rates, by Type

Percent of Outstanding Balance

Figure 6A: Serious Delinquency Rates for United States, By Debt Type

10

5

0
2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

Year
Auto

Mortgage

Student

Credit Card

HELOC

SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of NY/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel.

Figure 6B: Serious Delinquency Rates, By Debt Type
Little Rock MSA

Louisville MSA

Memphis MSA

St. Louis MSA

Percent of Outstanding Balance

15

10

5

0

15

10

5

0
2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2004

2006

2008

2010

Year
Auto

Mortgage

Student

Credit Card

SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of NY/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel.
10

HELOC

2012

2014

2016

Serious Delinquency Rates, a Demographic Perspective
Figure 7A: Serious Delinquency Rate for Mortgages, By Age
1.6
1.5

1.5

1.3

Percent

1.1
1.0

0.9
0.7

0.7

0.6
0.5

0.4

0.5
0.4
0.3

0.3 0.3

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2
0

0

0

0

0.3
0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1 0.2
0

0

0

0.1
0

0

0

0.0
<31

31−40

41−55

56−65

66−75

75+

All Ages

Age Group
United States

Little Rock MSA

Louisville MSA

Memphis MSA

St. Louis MSA

SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of NY/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel.
NOTE: Figures 7A to 7E are weighted with respect to the total by debt type.

Figure 7B: Serious Delinquency Rate for Auto Loans, By Age
6

6

4.3
4

Percent

3.5

3.4
2.9

2

1.8

1.7
1.4

1.2

1
0.8

1.1

0.9
0.6

0.6

0.7

0.8

1.3
1

0.9

0.7
0.4 0.4 0.4

0.6
0.3

0.2 0.2

0.3

0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1

0
<31

31−40

41−55

56−65

66−75

75+

All Ages

Age Group
United States

Little Rock MSA

Louisville MSA

Memphis MSA

SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of NY/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel.

11

St. Louis MSA

Figure 7C: Serious Delinquency Rate for Credit Card Loans, By Age
7.1

7 6.9

6.2
6

Percent

5.4

4

2.6

2.5
2.3

2

2

1.7
1.4
1.2
0.7

0.9

0.9

1.3

1.1 1.2 1.1

1 1.1

1.4 1.2
0.7 0.7

0.7 0.7

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.6

66−75

75+

0
<31

31−40

41−55

56−65

All Ages

Age Group
United States

Little Rock MSA

Louisville MSA

Memphis MSA

St. Louis MSA

SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of NY/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel.

Figure 7D: Serious Delinquency Rate for Student Loans, By Age
14.9

15

14.1
13.3
12.6
11.5

Percent

10

5.3
5

4.2
3.7

3.2

2.7

4.7 5

3.8

4.2
3.5

3.9

4.3 4.2 4.3

2.8
1.1 0.8
1.1 1
0.8
0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1

0
<31

31−40

41−55

56−65

66−75

75+

All Ages

Age Group
United States

Little Rock MSA

Louisville MSA

Memphis MSA

SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of NY/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel.

12

St. Louis MSA

Figure 7E: Serious Delinquency Rate for HELOC Loans, By Age
1.7
1.6

1.5

Percent

1.5

1.0

0.9
0.7
0.6

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.3

0.3

0.3
0.2 0.2

0.2
0.1

0
0.0

0

0

0

0

0
<31

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.5

0

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.1

0

0
31−40

0.2

0.1
0

41−55

56−65

66−75

75+

All Ages

Age Group
United States

Little Rock MSA

Louisville MSA

Memphis MSA

SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of NY/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel.

13

St. Louis MSA

Loan Originations, by Equifax Risk Score
Real Auto Loan Originations

Billions 2009 $

Figure 8A: Auto Loan Originations, By Equifax Risk Score, United States

100

50

0
2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

Year
280−619

620−659

660−719

720−759

760−850

SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of NY/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel.
NOTES: For inflation adjustment, 2009 dollars are used, in line with the Bureau of Economic Analysis’
personal consumption expenditures chain-type price index. Equifax developed the score to measure lending
risk. Typically, credit scores below 620 are considered subprime. A score below 500 would qualify as deep
subprime. These lower scores indicate that the borrower is more likely to have problems repaying the loan.

14

Figure 8B: Auto Loan Originations, By Risk Score, Little Rock MSA

Millions 2009 $

400

300

200

100

0
2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

Year
280−619

620−659

660−719

720−759

760−850

SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of NY/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel.

Figure 8C: Auto Loan Originations, By Risk Score, Louisville MSA

Millions 2009 $

400

300

200

100

0
2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

Year
280−619

620−659

660−719

720−759

SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of NY/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel.

15

760−850

2016

Figure 8D: Auto Loan Originations, By Risk Score, Memphis MSA

Millions 2009 $

600

400

200

0
2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

Year
280−619

620−659

660−719

720−759

760−850

SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of NY/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel.

Figure 8E: Auto Loan Originations, By Risk Score, St. Louis MSA

Millions 2009 $

1500

1000

500

0
2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

Year
280−619

620−659

660−719

720−759

SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of NY/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel.

16

760−850

2016

Real Mortgage Loan Originations
Figure 9A: Mortgage Originations, By Equifax Risk Score, United States

Billions 2009 $

100

50

0
2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

Year
280−619

620−659

660−719

720−759

760−850

SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of NY/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel.

Figure 9B: Mortgage Originations, By Risk Score, Little Rock MSA

Billions 2009 $

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.0
2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

Year
280−619

620−659

660−719

720−759

SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of NY/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel.

17

760−850

2016

Figure 9C: Mortgage Originations, By Risk Score, Louisville MSA

Billions 2009 $

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0
2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

Year
280−619

620−659

660−719

720−759

760−850

SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of NY/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel.

Figure 9D: Mortgage Originations, By Risk Score, Memphis MSA

Billions 2009 $

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0
2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

Year
280−619

620−659

660−719

720−759

SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of NY/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel.

18

760−850

2016

Figure 9E: Mortgage Originations, By Risk Score, St. Louis MSA

Billions 2009 $

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0
2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

Year
280−619

620−659

660−719

720−759

SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of NY/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel.

19

760−850

2016

Methodology
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel consists of Equifax credit report
data for a longitudinal quarterly panel of individuals from 1999 to the present. Due to reporting irregularities
prior to 2003, we restrict our sample so that it begins in the first quarter of 2003. The panel is a nationally
representative 5 percent random sample of all individuals with a Social Security number and a credit report.
Thus, our analysis excludes debt held by individuals without Social Security numbers. We use only data for
individual consumers, but the sample also includes all other individuals living at the same address as the
primary sample members. The resulting database includes a maximum sample of over 44 million individuals
in each quarter.
The Consumer Credit Panel offers a variety of variables for several important consumer debt categories:
• For mortgage debt, we combine balances for first mortgages and home equity installment loans.
• We put home equity lines of credit (HELOC) in a separate debt category because HELOC is a revolving
line of credit that may fluctuate depending on when the homeowner chooses to borrow.
• Auto debt is the sum of all loans taken out to buy an automobile; these loans include those financed
by a banking institution, as well as those financed by dealerships or auto financing companies.
• Credit card debt is the balance for all revolving accounts for banks, bankcard companies, national
credit card companies, credit unions, and savings and loan associations.
• Student loans include all loans used to finance education expenses; the loans are provided by banks,
credit unions and other financial institutions, as well as by federal and state governments.
• An “other” category includes consumer finances (sales financing, personal loans) and retail (clothing,
grocery, department stores, home furnishings, gas, etc.) loans. This category represents a very small
share of total debt, and its varied components inhibit useful interpretation of trends. For that reason,
it is not included on most of the figures.
To reduce computing requirements, we use a 2 percent subsample for all national estimates and figures. For
all regional analysis, we use the entire 5 percent sample in order to maximize the sample size available for
smaller geographic areas. While estimating individual total balances, we avoid double counting by attributing
50 percent of the balance associated with each joint account to each individual. Aggregate debt totals are
calculated by multiplying estimated figures by 20 = (1 /.05) for the regional analysis and by 1,000 = (1/ (.05
*.02)) for the nation. All debt figures, with the exception of average debt balance, are adjusted for inflation
using the personal consumption expenditures chain-type price index, with a base year of 2009. Analysis of
regional MSAs uses the July 2015 definitions set forth by the Office of Management and Budget.

20

Definitions
Total Debt Balance: Total balance across all accounts, excluding those in bankruptcy.
Average Balance: All average balances are conditional on carrying that type of debt. For example, average
student debt pertains to the average balance among individuals who have a student loan. Also, average debt
balances are reported unadjusted for inflation. This was done to make those balances more relatable to a
reader’s personal financial obligations.
Equifax Risk Score: Predicts the likelihood of a consumer becoming seriously delinquent (90-plus days
past due on debt). The score ranges from 280 to 850, with someone with a higher score being viewed as a
better risk than someone with a lower score.
Serious Delinquency Rate: The share of debt that has a payment at least 90 days past due, divided by
the total outstanding balance for that type of debt.
Debt at least 90 days past due includes:
• Debt categorized as 90 days late–between 90 and 119 days late with not more than four payments past
due;
• 120 days late–at least 120 days past due with five or more payments past due;
• In collections; and
• Severely derogatory–any of the previous states combined with reports of a repossession, charge-off to
bad debt or foreclosure.
The total outstanding balance includes debt at least 90 days past due in addition to:
• Debt which is current or paid as agreed;
• 30 days late–between 30 and 59 days late with not more than two payments past due; and
• 60 days late–between 60 and 89 days late with not more than three payments past due.
Not all creditors provide updated information on payment status, especially after accounts have been derogatory for a longer period of time.
Student Loan Reporting Issues: There are some reporting issues related to student loans in the raw
Equifax data. This involves a temporary or sustained period of nonreporting of student loan accounts. We
leave the data as they were provided by Equifax.
Auto Loan Originations: In calculating the balance of new auto loan originations, we use both the number of accounts and total balance on an individual credit report in consecutive quarters. New auto loan
originations are then defined as an increase in the balance accompanied by an increase in the number of
accounts reported.

21