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3/19/2020

Mnuchin and Vought Release Joint Statement on Budget Results for Fiscal Year 2019 | U.S. Department of the Treasury

Mnuchin and Vought Release Joint Statement on Budget Results
for Fiscal Year 2019
October 25, 2019

WASHINGTON — U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven T. Mnuchin and O ice of Management and
Budget (OMB) Acting Director Russell Vought today released the final budget results for FY 2019.
The deficit in FY 2019 was $984 billion, $205 billion more than in the prior fiscal year but $16
billion less than forecast in the FY 2020 Mid-Session Review (MSR).[1] As a percentage of GDP, the
deficit was 4.6 percent, 0.8 percentage point higher than the previous year.[2]
“President Trump’s economic agenda is working: the Nation is experiencing the lowest
unemployment rate in nearly 50 years, there are more jobs to fill than there are job seekers, and
Americans are experiencing sustained year-over-year wage increases,” said U.S. Treasury
Secretary Steven T. Mnuchin. “In order to truly put America on a sustainable financial path, we
must enact proposals—like the President’s 2020 budget plan—to cut wasteful and irresponsible
spending.”
“Americans from all walks of life are flourishing again thanks to pro-growth policies enacted by
this Administration,” said Acting OMB Director Russ Vought. “By providing a responsible fiscal
path forward and pursuing pro-growth reforms, President Trump’s agenda will make America’s
economic expansion enduring. That’s why the President’s Budget included more deficit
reduction than any administration in history—saving $2.8 trillion over 10 years.”

SUMMARY OF FISCAL YEAR 2019 BUDGET RESULTS
Year-end data from the September 2019 Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts and Outlays of
the United States Government show that the deficit for FY 2019 was $984 billion, $205 billion
higher than the prior year's deficit[3]. As a percentage of GDP, the deficit was 4.6 percent, an
increase from 3.8 percent in FY 2018.
The FY 2019 deficit was $107 billion less than the estimate of $1,092 billion in the FY 2020 Budget
(Budget), and $16 billion less than the estimate of $1,001 billion in the MSR, a supplemental
update to the Budget published in July.[4]
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Table 1. Total Receipts, Outlays, and Deficit (in billions of dollars)
Receipts

Outlays

Deficit

3,329

4,108

-779

16.4%

20.2%

-3.8%

3,438

4,529

-1,092

2020 Mid-Session
Review

3,472

4,473

-1,001

FY 2019 Actual

3,462

4,447

-984

16.3%

20.9%

-4.6%

FY 2018 Actual
Percentage of GDP
FY 2019 Estimates:
2020 Budget

Percentage of GDP

Note: Detail may not add to totals due to rounding.
Governmental receipts totaled $3,462 billion in FY 2019. This was $133 billion higher than in FY
2018, an increase of 4.0 percent, above expectations from the Budget, but $10 billion below the
MSR estimate. As a percentage of GDP, receipts equaled 16.3 percent, 0.1 percentage point lower
than in FY 2018 and 1.1 percentage points below the average over the last 40 years. The nominal
increase in receipts for FY 2019 can be attributed primarily to higher social insurance and
retirement receipts, net individual income tax receipts, customs duties, net corporation income
tax receipts, and excise taxes, partially o set by lower deposits of earnings by the Federal
Reserve, and other miscellaneous receipts.
Outlays grew in FY 2019, but by less than expected in the Budget and the MSR. Outlays were
$4,447 billion, $339 billion above those in FY 2018, an 8.2 percent increase.3 As a percentage of
GDP, outlays were 20.9 percent, 0.7 percentage point higher than in the prior year, and 0.3
percentage point higher than the 40-year average of 20.6 percent. Contributing to the dollar
increase over FY 2018 were higher outlays for Medicare, Social Security, Defense, and interest on
the public debt.
Total Federal borrowing from the public increased by $1,052 billion during FY 2019 to $16,803
billion. The increase in borrowing included $984 billion in borrowing to finance the deficit, as
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well as $67 billion in net borrowing related to other transactions such as changes in cash
balances and net disbursements for Federal credit programs. As a percentage of GDP, borrowing
from the public grew from 77.5 percent of GDP at the end of FY 2018 to 79.1 percent of GDP at
the end of FY 2019.
To coincide with the release of the Federal Government’s year-end financial data, the Treasury’s
Bureau of the Fiscal Service has updated Your Guide to America’s Finances (Your Guide) with this
new data. Your Guide was launched in 2019 to make federal financial information transparent
and accessible to all Americans. It presents a snapshot of the trillions of dollars collected and
spent by the Federal Government each year and provides useful context for those numbers. Your
Guide also clarifies common questions such as the di erence between the deficit and the debt
through user-friendly explanations, charts, and visualizations.
Below are explanations of the di erences between estimates in the MSR and the year-end actual
amounts for receipts and agency outlays.

FISCAL YEAR 2019 RECEIPTS
Total receipts for FY 2019 were $3,462.2 billion, $10.1 billion lower than the MSR estimate of
$3,472.3 billion. This net decrease in receipts was the net e ect of lower-than-estimated
collections of customs duties, social insurance and retirement receipts, individual income taxes,
estate and gi taxes, and other miscellaneous receipts, partially o set by higher-than-estimated
collections of corporation income tax receipts, deposits of earnings by the Federal Reserve, and
excise taxes. Table 2 displays actual receipts and estimates from the Budget and the MSR by
source.
Individual income taxes were $1,717.9 billion, $1.2 billion lower than the MSR estimate. This
decrease was the net e ect of lower withheld payments of individual income tax liability of
$4.4 billion, lower nonwithheld payments of $0.4 billion, and lower-than-estimated refunds
of $2.4 billion.
Corporation income taxes were $230.2 billion, $9.0 billion above the MSR estimate. This
di erence was the net e ect of higher-than-expected payments of 2019 corporation income
tax liability of $10.8 billion and higher-than-estimated refunds of $1.9 billion.
Social insurance and retirement receipts were $1,243.1 billion, $2.7 billion lower than the
MSR estimate.
Excise taxes were $98.9 billion, $0.9 billion above the MSR estimate.
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Estate and gi taxes were $16.7 billion, $0.7 billion below the MSR estimate.
Customs duties were $70.8 billion, $10.9 billion below the MSR estimate.
Miscellaneous receipts were $84.6 billion, $4.6 billion below the MSR estimate. This was the
net e ect of lower-than-expected collections of various fees, penalties, forfeitures, and fines
of $8.6 billion, in large part due to a reduced number of customs, commerce, and antitrust
settlement agreements; partially o set by higher-than-expected deposits of earnings by the
Federal Reserve System of $4.0 billion.

FISCAL YEAR 2019 OUTLAYS
Total outlays were $4,446.6 billion for FY 2018, $26.4 billion below the MSR estimate. Table 3
displays actual outlays by agency and major program as well as estimates from the Budget and
the MSR. The largest changes in outlays from the MSR were in the following areas:
Department of Agriculture — Outlays for the Department of Agriculture were $150.1 billion,
nearly $5.1 billion lower than the MSR estimate.
Outlays for the Farm Service Agency were $4.2 billion lower than estimated in the MSR, primarily
due to slower-than-expected outlays from the Market Facilitation Program. Outlays for the
O ice of the Secretary were about $1 billion below the MSR estimate, due to slower than
anticipated enrollment in the Wildfire and Hurricane Indemnity Program Plus disaster program.
Outlays in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) were $1.9 billion lower than
estimated in MSR due to declining participation. In July 2019, SNAP served 36.3 million people,
nearly two million fewer than July 2018, and 4.5 million fewer than projected. Outlays for the
Risk Management Agency were $4.2 billion higher than anticipated in the MSR primarily because
USDA is allowing producers to defer premium payments until a er harvest. Forest Service
outlays were about $1.3 billion below the MSR estimate, primarily because the 2019 fire season
was less severe than anticipated.
Department of Commerce — Outlays for the Department of Commerce were $11.3 billion, $2.1
billion lower than the MSR estimate.
This di erence is primarily due to lower-than-expected outlays for the 2020 Decennial Census
due to lower operational expenses and slower-than-expected hiring. Lower-than-expected
outlays in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration due to delays in certain
weather satellites also contributed to the lower outlay rate.

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Department of Defense — Outlays for the Department of Defense were $654.0 billion, $3.9
billion lower than the MSR estimate.
This di erence is mostly due to lower-than-expected outlays for activities such as operation and
maintenance contracts ($3.8 billion), Air Force research, development, test and evaluation
contracts ($3.4 billion), and Military Construction projects ($0.7 billion); as well as higher-thananticipated burden-sharing contributions from partner countries ($0.4 billion). These
di erences were partially o set by higher-than-expected outlays from accounts including Air
Force miscellaneous procurement programs ($1.8 billion), Navy and Air Force Working Capital
activities (1.2 billion), Army National Guard personnel ($0.7 billion), and Navy personnel ($0.5
billion).
Department of Education — Outlays for the Department of Education were $104.4 billion, $1.9
billion lower than the MSR estimate.
Outlays for the Hurricane Education Recovery account were $1.5 billion lower than anticipated
for three reasons. Puerto Rico, the largest grantee, drew down their funds more slowly than
anticipated due to contracting and capacity issues. Slower than usual Restart spending slowed
down the anticipated phase 2 process of the Restart program. Similarly, Emergency Assistance
to Institutions of Higher Education grantees were unable to spend all of their requested funds by
the statutory deadline due to the nature of their projects which involve mostly construction or
repairs.
In the Pell Grant program, outlays were $1.2 billion higher than projected in the MSR, due to
faster-than-expected disbursement patterns.
For the Federal Direct Student Loan program, because of changes in the mix of activity in direct
student loans, $2.7 billion less in positive subsidy outlays for the 2017 loan cohort were
recorded in 2019 than estimated in the MSR, primarily due to reduced Consolidation loan
volume compared to original estimates.
Department of Health and Human Services — Outlays for the Department of Health and
Human Services (HHS) were $1,213.8 billion, $2.2 billion lower than the MSR estimate.
Outlays for Medicaid were $3.6 billion above the MSR estimate. The di erence was primarily the
result of higher-than-anticipated benefits spending during the second half of the year.
Outlays for Medicare Part A were $1.5 billion lower than the MSR estimate due in part to lower
utilization of inpatient hospital services and lower than estimated skilled nursing facility
utilization among Medicare beneficiaries. Outlays for Medicare Part B were $3.1 billion higher
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than the MSR estimate which is likely due to higher utilization of outpatient services. Federal
contributions to Medicare Part B were $1 billion higher than the MSR estimate which is also
likely due to higher than anticipated utilization of outpatient services.
The actual outlays for other health programs was $3.2 billion lower than what was projected in
MSR. This is primarily due to the absence of an appropriation for Cost-Sharing Reductions (-$2
billion).
Actual outlays for Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) were $1.2 billion lower than
what was projected in MSR. TANF was initially extended on short-term bases in appropriations
bills, and in January 2019, its authorization was extended through June 2019. Legislation
extending the program through the end of 2019 was not signed until July 5, 2019, causing a
delay in the availability of funding. At the time that the MSR estimate was developed, HHS
believed the states would compensate for this delay so that total outlays at the end of the fiscal
year would be consistent with prior years. However, states did not spend the funding as
anticipated.
Department of Homeland Security — Outlays for the Department of Homeland Security were
$56.3 billion, $2.4 billion lower than the MSR estimate.
Approximately $1.7 billion of the di erence is driven by the Federal Emergency Management
Agency (FEMA). FEMA’s Disaster Relief Fund MSR outlay estimate di erential accounts for $570
million of the overestimate, which can be attributed to the di icultly in determining when a
grantee may draw down disaster funds. FEMA overestimated Urban Area Security Initiative
outlays for the same reason. Finally, the government shutdown impacted outlays for facility
maintenance, IT systems, and security contracts. Approximately $635 million of the di erence is
due to U.S. Coast Guard (USCG), driven by a combination of a late year appropriation, which
delayed the timeline for normal issuance of contracts. Additionally, USCG’s large unobligated
carryover related to emergency funding remaining from 2018 and new emergency funding in
2019 has been spent down slower than a usual project, which was not adequately captured in
the MSR estimate.
Department of Justice — Outlays for the Department of Justice were $35.1 billion, $4.8 billion
lower than the MSR estimate. The Department’s di erence is predominately due to large
di erences in both the Crime Victims Fund (CVF) and the Asset Forfeiture Program (AFP).
Outlays for the CVF were $1.4 billion lower than estimated in MSR due to a slower-thananticipated draw down of funds made available in prior fiscal years. Outlays by the AFP were
$1.2 billion lower than anticipated in MSR due to an unanticipated lag in victim payments.
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Additionally, outlays were lower across many accounts due to delayed enactment of 2019
appropriations.
Department of the Treasury — Net outlays for the Department of the Treasury were $689.5
billion, $8.4 billion higher than the MSR estimate.
The increase was attributable primarily to dividend payments from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
(the GSEs) on their Senior Preferred Stock that were $5.0 billion less than projected, increasing
net outlays relative to MSR due to a reduction in o setting receipts. This change is the result of
an agreement, announced a er the MSR was released, that increases the level of capital the
GSEs are permitted to retain.
In addition, payment where certain tax credits exceed liability for corporate tax was $4.3 billion
higher than projected in MSR. This change is a result of larger refund payments in May and June
than were anticipated in MSR.
Net outlays for intragovernmental interest transactions with non-budgetary credit financing
accounts were $2.1 billion higher than projected, including $4.4 billion in lower-than-projected
interest paid to credit financing accounts and $6.5 billion in lower-than-anticipated receipts of
interest from credit financing accounts. (Interest received from credit financing accounts is
reported in Treasury’s aggregate o setting receipts.)
These amounts were partially o set by lower outlays for interest on the public debt, which is
paid to the public and to trust funds and other government accounts. Interest on the public debt
was $4.2 billion lower than the MSR estimate, due primarily to lower-than-projected interest
paid to the public, particularly on inflation-protected and shorter-maturity securities.
Department of Veterans A airs — Outlays for the Department of Veterans A airs (VA) were
$199.6 billion, $4.6 billion lower than the MSR estimate.
Veterans Health Administration outlays were $2.7 billion less than projected in MSR. The
primary driver was an inadvertent adjustment in MSR estimates of medical services outlays by
$2.1 billion due to the timing of obligations. The next largest contributor was a $0.5 billion
decrease in the Veterans Choice Program, driven by the accelerated transition from the Veterans
Choice Program to the VA Medical Community Care program.
Outlays for Departmental Administration were $1.7 billion less than projected in MSR. The
primary driver is approximately $0.8 billion less in the supply fund due to an error in calculating
MSR outlay projections. The VA Electronic Health Record contributed to the di erence due to
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later than anticipated contract awards reducing the portion of outlays from 2019 and increasing
outlays into 2020.
The decrease in benefits programs is due to reduced claim payments based on the number of
claimants.
International Assistance Programs — Outlays for International Assistance Programs were
$23.6 billion, $1.4 billion higher than the MSR estimate.
This di erence is largely due to net outlays for Foreign Military Sales that were $3.1 billion
higher than the MSR estimate due to lower-than-anticipated receipts received from foreign
governments for weapons purchases. This di erence can be attributed to variables associated
with the contracting and sale of defense articles and services. The higher Foreign Military Sales
outlays were partially o set by lower-than-estimated outlays from Foreign Military Financing
grants.
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Outlays for the National Aeronautics and
Space Administration were $20.2 billion, $1.1 billion lower than the MSR estimate. The NASA
mission areas with the largest variances are Science, Deep Space Exploration, and LEO and
Spaceflight Operations. Outlays were lower than anticipated due to delays due to the
government shut down and Congressional reporting requirements; program schedule delays;
and new contracts that outlay at slower rates than has been typical.
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation — Net outlays for the Federal Deposit Insurance
Corporation were -$7.5 billion, $1.7 billion lower than the MSR estimate. The di erence was
almost entirely due to lower-than-estimated outlays from the Orderly Liquidation Fund.
United States Postal Service — Net outlays for the United States Postal Service were -$1.0
billion, $1.0 billion lower than the MSR estimate, due mostly to non-personnel operating,
capital, and transportation expenses that were lower than anticipated in MSR.
Undistributed O setting Receipts — Undistributed O setting Receipts were -$247.8 billion,
$1.5 billion lower than the MSR estimate (higher collections).
Interest received by trust funds was $1.2 billion lower than the MSR estimate. The di erence
was due largely to Medicare interest earnings, which were $1.8 billion higher than the MSR
estimate. This intragovernmental interest is paid out of the Department of the Treasury account
for interest on the public debt and has no net impact on total Federal Government outlays.

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[1] Figures may not add up to totals due to rounding.
[2] The estimates of GDP used in the calculations of the deficit and borrowing relative to GDP
reflect the revisions to historical data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) in July
2019. GDP for FY 2019 is based on the economic forecast for the President’s 2020 Budget,
adjusted for the BEA revisions.
[3] The FY 2018 and year-over-year change in budget results were impacted by calendar
di erences. FY 2018 outlays were reduced by $48 billion because October 1, 2017, fell on a
weekend causing certain mandatory benefit payments to be accelerated into FY 2017. A er
adjusting for this di erence, the growth in outlays would have been $291 billion or 7%.
Additionally, there was one additional business day in FY 2019 compared to FY 2018, which was
worth an estimated $15 billion in additional receipts. A er adjusting for this di erence, receipts
would have grown by $118 billion, still a 4% increase. A er accounting for both of these
di erences, the adjusted deficit would have grown by $173 billion or 21%.
[4] Figures may not add up to totals due to rounding.

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