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The Obama Administration’s Efforts
To Stabilize The Housing Market
and Help American Homeowners
July 2012
U.S. Department
of Housing
and Urban
Development
| Office
of Policy
Development
Research
U.S Department
of Housing
and Urban
Development
| U.S.
Department
of the and
Treasury
The Administration’s goal is to stabilize the housing market and
provide security for homeowners. To meet these objectives in the
context of a very challenging market, the Administration developed
a broad approach implementing state and local housing agency
initiatives, tax credits for homebuyers, neighborhood stabilization
and community development programs, mortgage modifications
and refinancing, housing counseling, continued Federal Housing
Administration (FHA) engagement, support for Fannie Mae and
Freddie Mac and increased consumer protections. In addition, Federal
Reserve and Treasury Mortgage-Backed Securities purchase programs
have helped to keep mortgage interest rates at record lows over the
past year. More detail on the Administration’s efforts can be found in
the Appendix.
July 2012 Scorecard on Administration’s
Comprehensive Housing Initiative
The President’s housing market recovery efforts began immediately
after taking office in February 2009. The July 2012 housing scorecard
includes the following key indicators of market health and results of
the Administration’s comprehensive response, as outlined above:
•
Market data show important progress in homes on the
market and for underwater mortgages, but continued
fragility overall. The number of underwater borrowers fell 5.8
percent from the previous quarter and is down 0.9 percent from
one year ago. Also, foreclosure starts and completions declined
in June, though officials expect activity to increase in the coming
months as firms lift delays in foreclosure processing. In addition,
the inventory of houses for sale remained low. At current pace, it
would take 6.6 months to sell the supply of existing homes on the
market and 4.9 months to clear the new homes on the market;
experts consider a six month supply of homes to be a balanced
market.
•
The Administration’s recovery efforts continue to help
millions of families deal with the worst economic crisis
since the Great Depression. More than 1.2 million homeowner
assistance actions have taken place through the Administration’s
Making Home Affordable Program, while the FHA has offered
more than 1.4 million loss mitigation and early delinquency
interventions. The Administration’s programs continue to
encourage improved standards and processes in the industry,
with HOPE Now lenders offering families and individuals more
than 2.9 million proprietary mortgage modifications through
May.
•
Homeowners entering HAMP demonstrate a high
likelihood of long-term success in the program. As of June,
more than one million homeowners have received a permanent HAMP
modification, saving approximately $536 on their mortgage payments
each month, and an estimated $13.3 billion to date. Eighty-six percent
of homeowners entering the program in the last 23 months have
received a permanent modification, with an average trial period of
3.5 months. More than 88,000 homeowners have had their principal
reduced as part of their HAMP permanent modification, and nearly
87,000 second lien modifications have been completed through the
Second Lien Modification Program (2MP). The May Monthly Report can
be found at: http://www.treasury.gov/initiatives/financial-stability/
results/MHA-Reports/Pages/default.aspx
Given the current fragility and recognizing that recovery will take
place over time, the Administration remains committed to its efforts to
prevent avoidable foreclosures and stabilize the housing market.
July 2012 National Scorecard | Page 1
U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development
U.S. Department of the Treasury
U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development
U.S. Department of the Treasury
The Obama Administration’s Efforts To Stabilize The Housing Market and Help American Homeowners | July 2012
Expectations On House Prices Remain Above 2009 Projections
House Prices Are Stabilizing
Distressed Sales Remain Key In This Fragile Recovery
Existing And New Home Sales
Existing Homes On The Market At Low Level,
Number Of Units Held Off The Market Remains High
*
July 2012 National Scorecard | Page 2
The Obama Administration’s Efforts To Stabilize The Housing Market and Help American Homeowners | July 2012
Mortgage Rates At Record Lows, Homes Remain Highly Affordable
16.1 Million Homeowners Have Refinanced Since April 1, 2009
Mortgage Aid Helps Foreclosures Trend Downward,
Completions Turn Down in June
Mortgage Aid Extended More Than 5 Million Times, Outpacing Foreclosures
July 2012 National Scorecard | Page 3
U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development
U.S. Department of the Treasury
U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development
U.S. Department of the Treasury
The Obama Administration’s Efforts To Stabilize The Housing Market and Help American Homeowners | July 2012
Home Equity Shows Sharp Gain in First Quarter 2012
Homeowners Save From Reduced Mortgage Payments
FHA Supports Mortgage Lending During Crisis
Housing Counselors Serve Millions Of Families
July 2012 National Scorecard | Page 4
U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development
U.S. Department of the Treasury
U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development
U.S. Department of the Treasury
U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development
U.S. Department of the Treasury
U.S. Department of
Housing
Urban Development
Office ofand
Policy
Development
Research | July 2012
The Obama Administration’s
Eff
orts Toand
Stabilize
The Housing| Market
Help
Americanand
Homeowners
Indicator
HOUSING ASSISTANCE AND STABILIZATION PERFORMANCE METRICS
This Period
Last Period
Cumulative From April 1, 2009
Latest Release
Distressed Homeowners Assisted (thousands)
HAMP Trial Modifications
HAMP Permanent Modifications
FHA Loss Mitigation Interventions
HOPE Now Modifications
HARP Refinances
16.3
17.2
33.5
45.1
67.5
18.3
17.6
32.7
43.0
49.5
1,884
1,043
1,401
2,975
1,319
June-12
June-12
June-12
May-12
May-12
420.4
411.2
7,550
1st Q 12
Borrower Annual Savings ($ millions)
HAMP Active Trial Modifications
HAMP Active Permanent Modifications
All Refinances
----
----
421
5,265
30,761
Activities Completed Under NSP (housing units)
New Construction or Residential Rehab
Demolition or Clearance
Direct Homeownership Assistance
----
----
11,719 [54,588]
22,975 [26,097]
9,050 [18,460]
457.1
–132.7
Counseled Borrowers (thousands)
Change in Aggregate Home Equity ($ billions)
Indicator
Mortgage Rates (30-Yr FRM, percent)
Last Period
3.49
Year Ago
3.53
(b)
(b,s)
(b)
451.9
(r)
HOUSING MARKET FACT SHEET
This Period
2nd Q 12
2nd Q 12
2nd Q 12
4.55
1st Q 12
1st Q 12
1st Q 12
1st Q 12
As of Dec 2008
5.10
Latest Release
26-Jul-12
176.5
162.9
May-12
Housing Affordability (index)
183.8
190.3
(r)
Home Prices (indices)
Case Shiller (NSA)
FHFA (SA)
CoreLogic - Excluding Distressed Sales (NSA)
139.0
188.1
151.4
135.9
186.6
147.9
(r)
(r)
(r)
139.9
181.3
147.4
150.5
196.9
161.5
May-12
May-12
May-12
Home Sales (thousands, SA)
New
Existing
First Time Buyers
Distressed Sales (percent, NSA)
29.2
364.2
145.5
24
31.8
385.0
154.2
26
(r)
(r)
25.3
348.3
138.3
29
31.4
334.2
149.9
32
June-12
June-12
June-12
May-12
Housing Supply
Existing Homes for Sale (thousands, NSA)
Existing Homes - Months’ Supply (months)
New Homes for Sale (thousands, SA)
New Homes for Sale - Months’ Supply (months, SA)
Vacant Units Held Off Market (thousands)
2,390
6.6
144
4.9
3,928
2,470
6.4
143
4.5
4,053
(r)
(r)
(r)
(r)
3,160
9.1
166
6.6
3,869
3,130
9.4
353
11.2
3,542
June-12
June-12
June-12
June-12
2nd Q 12
1,232.9
493.0
1,219.4
462.5
869.1
541.8
767.2
986.4
2nd Q 12
2nd Q 12
19.1
77.1
58.7
62.9
72.7
56.2
June-12
June-12
June-12
Mortgage Originations (thousands)
Refinance Originations
Purchase Originations
(p)
(p)
(r)
FHA Originations (thousands)
Refinance Originations
Purchase Originations
Purchases by First Time Buyers
35.4
77.8
59.3
Mortgage Delinquency Rates (percent)
Prime
Subprime
FHA
4.1
29.5
12.0
3.9
28.8
11.8
4.4
32.7
11.5
4.4
34.3
14.3
June-12
June-12
June-12
1,375
1,595
721
1,381
1,599
713
1,500
1,697
585
915
1,632
333
June-12
June-12
June-12
11,400
12,100
11,500
--
64.1
79.5
54.3
26.4
40.4
66.3
84.9
54.8
27.7
49.5
63.9
90.0
68.9
26.5
66.7
121.5
103.0
78.9
13.9
74.5
Seriously Delinquent Mortgages (thousands)
Prime
Subprime
FHA
Underwater Borrowers (thousands)
Foreclosure Actions (thousands)
Notice of Default (Foreclosure Starts)
Notice of Foreclosure Sale
Foreclosure Completions
Short Sales
REO Sales
(p)
(p)
(p)
(p)
(p)
34.7
72.9
50.9
(r)
(r)
(r)
(r,s)
(r)
(r)
1st Q 12
June-12
June-12
June-12
May-12
May-12
SA = seasonally adjusted, NSA = not SA, p = preliminary, r = revised, b = brackets include units in process, s = see note Sources and Methodology page.
July 2012 National Scorecard | Page 5
U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development
U.S. Department of the Treasury
U.S. Department of
Housing
Urban Development
Office ofand
Policy
Development
Research | July 2012
The Obama Administration’s
Eff
orts Toand
Stabilize
The Housing| Market
Help
Americanand
Homeowners
A. Items in Tables
Description
Distressed Homeowners Assisted
HAMP Trial Modifications
HAMP Permanent Modifications
HARP Refinances
FHA Loss Mitigation Interventions
HOPE Now Modifications
Counseled Borrowers (thousands)
Borrower Annual Savings
HAMP Active Trial Modifications
SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY
Frequency
Sources
Notes on Methodology
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
Treasury
Treasury
Federal Housing Finance Agency
HUD
Hope Now Alliance
As reported.
As reported.
As reported.
All FHA loss mitigation and early delinquency interventions.
All proprietary modifications completed.
Quarterly
HUD
Housing counseling activity reported by all HUD-approved housing counselors.
Quarterly
HUD, Treasury, and Freddie Mac
HAMP Active Permanent Modifications
Quarterly
HUD and Treasury
All Refinances
Quarterly
HUD, and MBA
HUD estimate of annualized savings based on Treasury reported active HAMP trial modifications
and Freddie Mac monthly savings estimates.
HUD estimate of annualized savings based on Treasury reported active HAMP permanent
modifications and median monthly savings estimates.
Refinance originations (see below) multiplied by HUD estimate of annualized savings per refinance.
Completed Activities Under NSP (housing units)
New Construction or Residential Rehab
Quarterly
HUD
Demolition or Clearance
Quarterly
HUD
Direct Homeownership Assistance
Quarterly
HUD
Change in Aggregate Home Equity
Quarterly
Federal Reserve Board
Mortgage Rates (30-Yr FRM)
Weekly
Freddie Mac
Primary Mortgage Market Survey, as reported for 30-Year fixed rate mortgages (FRM).
Housing Affordability
Monthly
National Association of Realtors ®
NAR’s composite housing affordability index as reported. A value of 100 means that a
family with the median income has exactly enough income to qualify for a mortgage on a
median-priced home. An index above 100 signifies that family earning the median income
has more than enough income to qualify.
Home Prices
Case-Shiller (NSA)
Monthly
Standard and Poor’s
Monthly
Monthly
Federal Housing Finance Agency
CoreLogic
Case-Shiller 20-metro composite index, January 2000 = 100. Standard and Poor’s recommends
use of not seasonally adjusted index when making monthly comparisons.
FHFA monthly (purchase-only) index for US, January 1991 = 100.
CoreLogic national combined index, distressed sales excluded, January 2000 = 100.
(Only available as NSA).
Monthly
HUD and Census Bureau
Existing
Monthly
National Association of Realtors ®
First Time Buyers
Monthly
NAR, Census Bureau, and HUD
Distressed Sales (NSA)
Monthly
CoreLogic
Housing Supply
Existing Homes for Sale (NSA)
Existing Homes - Months’ Supply
New Homes for Sale (SA)
New Homes for Sale - Months’ Supply (SA)
Vacant Units Held Off Market
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
Quarterly
National Association of Realtors ®
National Association of Realtors ®
HUD and Census Bureau
HUD and Census Bureau
Census Bureau
As reported.
As reported.
As reported.
As reported.
As reported in Census CPS/HPS Table 4. Estimates of Housing Inventory, line item “Year-round
vacant, held off market for reasons other than occasional use or usually reside elsewhere.”
Vacant units can be held off the market for a variety of reasons.
Mortgage Originations
Refinance Originations
Quarterly
Purchase Originations
Quarterly
Mortgage Bankers Association
and HUD
Mortgage Bankers Association
and HUD
HUD estimate of refinance originations based on MBA estimate of dollar volume of refiance
originations.
HUD estimate of home purchase originations based on MBA estimate of dollar volume of home
purchase originations.
FHFA (SA)
CoreLogic - Excluding Distressed Sales (NSA)
Home Sales (SA)
New
Housing units constructed/rehabilitated using Neighborhood Stabilization Program.
Bracketed numbers include units in process, to be completed by 3/2013.
Housing units demolished/cleared using Neighborhood Stabilization Program. Bracketed
numbers as above.
Completed downpayment assistance or non-amortizing second mortgages by grantee to
make purchase of NSP unit affordable. Bracketed numbers as above.
Difference in aggregate household owners’ equity in real estate as reported in the Federal
Reserve Board’s Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States for stated time period.
Seasonally adjusted annual rates divided by 12. A newly constructed house is considered
sold when either a sales contract has been signed or a deposit accepted, even if this occurs
before construction has actually started.
Seasonally adjusted annual rates divided by 12. Existing-home sales, which include singlefamily, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, are based on transaction closings. This differs
from the U.S. Census Bureau’s series on new single-family home sales, which are based on
contracts or the acceptance of a deposit.
Sum of seasonally adjusted new and existing home sales (above) multiplied by National
Association of Realtors® annual estimate of first time buyer share of existing home sales.
Short sales and REO (Real Estate Owned) sales as a percent of total existing home sales
(current month subject to revision).
FHA Originations
Refinance Originations
Purchase Originations
Purchases by First Time Buyer
Mortgage Delinquency Rates (NSA)
Prime
Subprime
FHA
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
HUD
HUD
HUD
FHA originations reported as of date of loan closing. Estimate for current month scaled upward
due to normal reporting lag and shown as preliminary.
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
LPS Applied Analytics
LPS Applied Analytics
HUD
Total mortgages past due (30+ days) but not in foreclosure, divided by mortgages actively serviced.
Total mortgages past due (30+ days) but not in foreclosure, divided by mortgages actively serviced.
Total FHA mortgages past due (30+ days) but not in foreclosure, divided by FHA’s insurance in force.
Seriously Delinquent Mortgages
Prime
Subprime
FHA
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
LPS Applied Analytics, MBA, and HUD Mortgages 90+ days delinquent or in foreclosure, scaled up to market.
LPS Applied Analytics, MBA, and HUD Mortgages 90+ days delinquent or in foreclosure, scaled up to market.
HUD
Mortgages 90+ days delinquent or in foreclosure.
Underwater Borrowers
Quarterly
CoreLogic
As reported.
Foreclosure Actions
Notice of Default (Foreclosure Starts)
Monthly
Realty Trac
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
Realty Trac
Realty Trac
CoreLogic
CoreLogic
Reported counts of notice of default plus lis pendens. Some foreclosure starts may be omitted in
states where the filing of a notice of default is optional.
Notice of sale (auctions).
Real Estate Owned (REO).
Count of Short Sales for the month as reported (current month subject to revision).
Count of REO (Real Estate Owned) Sales for the month as reported (current month subject to
revision).
Notice of Foreclosure Sale
Foreclosure Completions
Short sales
REO Sales
July 2012 National Scorecard | Page 6
U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development
U.S. Department of the Treasury
U.S. Department of
Housing
Urban Development
Office ofand
Policy
Development
Research | July 2012
The Obama Administration’s
Eff
orts Toand
Stabilize
The Housing| Market
Help
Americanand
Homeowners
SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY
B. Notes on Charts.
1. Monthly house price trends shown as changes in respective house price indices applied to a common base price set equal to the median price of an existing
home sold in January 2003 as reported by the National Association of Realtors. Indices shown: S&P/Case Shiller 20-metro composite index (NSA), January
2000 = 100, FHFA monthly (purchase-only) index for US (SA), January 1991 = 100, and CoreLogic-Distressed Sales Excluded (Monthly) for US (NSA),
January 2000 =100.
2. S&P/Case-Shiller 20 metro composite index (NSA) as reported monthly. Futures index figures report forward expectations of the level of the S&P/Case Shiller
index as of the date indicated, estimated from prices of futures purchased on the Chicago Board of Exchange reported by Radar Logic.
3. Reported seasonally adjusted annual rates for new and existing home sales divided by 12.
4. HUD estimate of refinance originations based on MBA estimate of dollar volume of refinance originations.
5. Cumulative HAMP permanent modifications started, FHA loss mitigation and early delinquency interventions, plus proprietary modifications completed as
reported by Hope Now Alliance. Some homeowners may be counted in more than one category. Foreclosure completions are properties entering Real
Estate Owned (REO) as reported by Realty Trac.
6. Foreclosure starts include notice of default and lis pendens, completions are properties entering REO. Both as reported by Realty Trac. See “Foreclosure
Actions” above.
7. See “Borrower Annual Savings” above.
8. FHA market shares as FHA purchase and refinance originations divided by HUD estimates of purchase and refinance mortgage originations as noted in
“Mortgage Originations” above. Data for 2010 and 2011 have been revised.
C. Additional Notes.
Additional loan servicers were added to the LPS Applied Analytics data base in March 2012, increasing market coverage of active prime loans in the LPS
sample by 0.5 percent and active subprime loans by 20 percent. Since the estimated number of delinquent loans from this source have always been scaled
to represent the entire market, the additional market coverage would not necessarily increase the number of delinquent loans reported here. The increased
sample size improves the accuracy of the estimates.
The Q4 2011 NSP data shown in prior scorecards were revised with the Q1 2012 data.
Beginning the 2nd quarter of 2012, Corelogic revised the methodology used to estimate the number of underwater borrowers by improving the accuracy of
their home value estimates. This resulted in increasing both the share and number of loans underwater, affecting both current and past quarters in the series.
CoreLogic provided revised estimates back through the 3rd quarter of 2009.
July 2012 National Scorecard | Page 7
U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development
U.S. Department of the Treasury
U.S. Department of
Housing
Urban Development
Office ofand
Policy
Development
Research | July 2012
The Obama Administration’s
Eff
orts Toand
Stabilize
The Housing| Market
Help
Americanand
Homeowners
Appendix
The Administration has taken a broad set of actions to stabilize the housing market and help
American homeowners. Three years ago, stress in the financial system had severely reduced
the supply of mortgage credit, limiting the ability of Americans to buy homes or refinance
mortgages. Millions of responsible families who had made their monthly payments and had
fulfilled their obligations saw their property values fall. They also found themselves unable to
refinance at lower mortgage rates.
In February 2009, less than one month after taking office, President Obama announced the
Homeowner Affordability and Stability Plan. As part of this plan and through other housing
initiatives, the Administration has taken the following actions to strengthen the housing market:
•
Supported Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to ensure continued access to affordable
mortgage credit;
•
The Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury purchased more than $1.4 trillion in agency
mortgage backed securities through independent MBS purchase programs, helping to
keep mortgage rates at historic lows;
•
Launched a modification initiative to help homeowners reduce mortgage payments to
affordable levels and to prevent avoidable foreclosures;
•
Launched a $23.5 billion Housing Finance Agencies Initiative to increase sustainable
homeownership and rental resources;
•
Supported the First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit, which helped more than 2.5 million
American families purchase homes;
•
Provided more than $5 billion in support for affordable rental housing through low
income housing tax credit programs and $6.92 billion in support for the Neighborhood
Stabilization Program to restore neighborhoods hardest hit by the concentrated
foreclosures;
•
Created the $7.6 billion HFA Hardest Hit Fund for innovative foreclosure prevention
programs in the nation’s hardest hit housing markets;
•
Launched the $1 billion Emergency Homeowners Loan Program, as part of the DoddFrank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, to help unemployed and
underemployed homeowners pay a portion of their monthly mortgage.
•
Created an FHA Short Refinance Option that helps underwater borrowers refinance into
a new, stable, FHA-insured mortgage that is more aligned with actual property values.
•
Supported home purchase and refinance activity through the FHA to provide access to
affordable mortgage capital and help homeowners prevent foreclosures.
•
Implemented a series of changes to the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP) in
an effort to attract more eligible borrowers who can benefit from refinancing their home
mortgages during this time of historically low mortgage rates.
###
July 2012 National Scorecard | Page 8
@FedFRASER